Science.gov

Sample records for actual climate system

  1. What actually confers adaptive capacity? Insights from agro-climatic vulnerability of Australian wheat.

    PubMed

    Bryan, Brett A; Huai, Jianjun; Connor, Jeff; Gao, Lei; King, Darran; Kandulu, John; Zhao, Gang

    2015-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments have often invoked sustainable livelihoods theory to support the quantification of adaptive capacity based on the availability of capital--social, human, physical, natural, and financial. However, the assumption that increased availability of these capitals confers greater adaptive capacity remains largely untested. We quantified the relationship between commonly used capital indicators and an empirical index of adaptive capacity (ACI) in the context of vulnerability of Australian wheat production to climate variability and change. We calculated ACI by comparing actual yields from farm survey data to climate-driven expected yields estimated by a crop model for 12 regions in Australia's wheat-sheep zone from 1991-2010. We then compiled data for 24 typical indicators used in vulnerability analyses, spanning the five capitals. We analyzed the ACI and used regression techniques to identify related capital indicators. Between regions, mean ACI was not significantly different but variance over time was. ACI was higher in dry years and lower in wet years suggesting that farm adaptive strategies are geared towards mitigating losses rather than capitalizing on opportunity. Only six of the 24 capital indicators were significantly related to adaptive capacity in a way predicted by theory. Another four indicators were significantly related to adaptive capacity but of the opposite sign, countering our theory-driven expectation. We conclude that the deductive, theory-based use of capitals to define adaptive capacity and vulnerability should be more circumspect. Assessments need to be more evidence-based, first testing the relevance and influence of capital metrics on adaptive capacity for the specific system of interest. This will more effectively direct policy and targeting of investment to mitigate agro-climatic vulnerability.

  2. What Actually Confers Adaptive Capacity? Insights from Agro-Climatic Vulnerability of Australian Wheat

    PubMed Central

    Bryan, Brett A.; Huai, Jianjun; Connor, Jeff; Gao, Lei; King, Darran; Kandulu, John; Zhao, Gang

    2015-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments have often invoked sustainable livelihoods theory to support the quantification of adaptive capacity based on the availability of capital—social, human, physical, natural, and financial. However, the assumption that increased availability of these capitals confers greater adaptive capacity remains largely untested. We quantified the relationship between commonly used capital indicators and an empirical index of adaptive capacity (ACI) in the context of vulnerability of Australian wheat production to climate variability and change. We calculated ACI by comparing actual yields from farm survey data to climate-driven expected yields estimated by a crop model for 12 regions in Australia’s wheat-sheep zone from 1991–2010. We then compiled data for 24 typical indicators used in vulnerability analyses, spanning the five capitals. We analyzed the ACI and used regression techniques to identify related capital indicators. Between regions, mean ACI was not significantly different but variance over time was. ACI was higher in dry years and lower in wet years suggesting that farm adaptive strategies are geared towards mitigating losses rather than capitalizing on opportunity. Only six of the 24 capital indicators were significantly related to adaptive capacity in a way predicted by theory. Another four indicators were significantly related to adaptive capacity but of the opposite sign, countering our theory-driven expectation. We conclude that the deductive, theory-based use of capitals to define adaptive capacity and vulnerability should be more circumspect. Assessments need to be more evidence-based, first testing the relevance and influence of capital metrics on adaptive capacity for the specific system of interest. This will more effectively direct policy and targeting of investment to mitigate agro-climatic vulnerability. PMID:25668192

  3. Assessing Climate Information Use in Agribusiness. Part I: Actual and Potential Use and Impediments to Usage.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Changnon, Stanley A.; Sonka, Steven T.; Hofing, Steven

    1988-08-01

    A project for the development of methodology to enable agribusiness decision makers to utilize more effectively climate information involved investigation of three agribusiness firms, as well as measurement of their actual and potential use. The firms investigated included a food processing firm, a seed corn producing company, and an agri-chemical producing firm. Climate information is currently being used to some extent by each firm. This information, generally historical in nature, is often collected by the firms. Corporate officials make many decisions using data on conditions influenced by past climatic events, e.g., averages of past yields, but the role of climate information is not explicitly identified. The decision makers interviewed expressed considerable interest in making fuller use of this information. However, they considered climate predictions and year-to-date assessments of conditions as having potentially greater. value than historical data, although these two desired data type currently were not being used to any great extent. Lack of procedures to integrate climate information within the decision processes of these large, complex firms was a major impediment to greater utilization of climate information. A scarcity of information about climate data was another major impediment.

  4. Climate system modeling program

    SciTech Connect

    1995-12-31

    The Climate System Modeling Project is a component activity of NSF's Climate Modeling, Analysis and Prediction Program, supported by the Atmospheric Sciences Program, Geosciences Directorate. Its objective is to accelerate progress toward reliable prediction of global and regional climate changes in the decades ahead. CSMP operates through workshops, support for post-docs and graduate students and other collaborative activities designed to promote interdisciplinary and strategic work in support of the overall objective (above) and specifically in three areas, (1) Causes of interdecadal variability in the climate system, (2) Interactions of regional climate forcing with global processes, and (3) Scientific needs of climate assessment.

  5. Power Delivery from an Actual Thermoelectric Generation System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaibe, Hiromasa; Kajihara, Takeshi; Nagano, Kouji; Makino, Kazuya; Hachiuma, Hirokuni; Natsuume, Daisuke

    2014-06-01

    Similar to photovoltaic (PV) and fuel cells, thermoelectric generators (TEGs) supply direct-current (DC) power, essentially requiring DC/alternating current (AC) conversion for delivery as electricity into the grid network. Use of PVs is already well established through power conditioning systems (PCSs) that enable DC/AC conversion with maximum-power-point tracking, which enables commercial use by customers. From the economic, legal, and regulatory perspectives, a commercial PCS for PVs should also be available for TEGs, preferably as is or with just simple adjustment. Herein, we report use of a PV PCS with an actual TEG. The results are analyzed, and proper application for TEGs is proposed.

  6. Pilot climate data system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    A usable data base, the Pilot climate Data System (PCDS) is described. The PCDS is designed to be an interactive, easy-to-use, on-line generalized scientific information system. It efficiently provides uniform data catalogs; inventories, and access method, as well as manipulation and display tools for a large assortment of Earth, ocean and atmospheric data for the climate-related research community. Researchers can employ the PCDS to scan, manipulate, compare, display, and study climate parameters from diverse data sets. Software features, and applications of the PCDS are highlighted.

  7. Defining climate modeling user needs: which data are actually required to support impact analysis and adaptation policy development?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swart, R. J.; Pagé, C.

    2010-12-01

    Until recently, the policy applications of Earth System Models in general and climate models in particular were focusing mainly on the potential future changes in the global and regional climate and attribution of observed changes to anthropogenic activities. Is climate change real? And if so, why do we have to worry about it? Following the broad acceptance of the reality of the risks by the majority of governments, particularly after the publication of IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report and the increasing number of observations of changes in ecological and socio-economic systems that are consistent with the observed climatic changes, governments, companies and other societal groups have started to evaluate their own vulnerability in more detail and to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies. After an early focus on the most vulnerable developing countries, recently, an increasing number of industrialized countries have embarked on the design of adaptation and mitigation plans, or on studies to evaluate the level of climate resilience of their development plans and projects. Which climate data are actually required to effectively support these activities? This paper reports on the efforts of the IS-ENES project, the infrastructure project of the European Network for Earth System Modeling, to address this question. How do we define user needs and can the existing gap between the climate modeling and impact research communities be bridged in support of the ENES long-term strategy? In contrast from the climate modeling community, which has a relatively long history of collaboration facilitated by a relatively uniform subject matter, commonly agreed definitions of key terminology and some level of harmonization of methods, the climate change impacts research community is very diverse and fragmented, using a wide variety of data sources, methods and tools. An additional complicating factor is that researchers working on adaptation usually closely collaborate with non

  8. Climate data management system

    SciTech Connect

    Drach, R

    1999-07-13

    The Climate Data Management System is an object-oriented data management system, specialized for organizing multidimensional, gridded data used in climate analysis and simulation. The building blocks of CDMS are variables, container classes, structural classes, and links. All gridded data stored in CDMS is associated with variables. The container objects group variables and structural objects. Variables are defined in terms of structural objects. Most CDMS objects can have attributes, which are scalar or one-dimensional metadata items. Attributes which are stored in the database, that is are persistent, are called external attributes. Some attributes are internal; they are associated with an object but do not appear explicitly in the database.

  9. Tutorial on Actual Space Environmental Hazards For Space Systems (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazur, J. E.; Fennell, J. F.; Guild, T. B.; O'Brien, T. P.

    2013-12-01

    It has become common in the space science community to conduct research on diverse physical phenomena because they are thought to contribute to space weather. However, satellites contend with only three primary environmental hazards: single event effects, vehicle charging, and total dose, and not every physical phenomenon that occurs in space contributes in substantial ways to create these hazards. One consequence of the mismatch between actual threats and all-encompassing research is the often-described gap between research and operations; another is the creation of forecasts that provide no actionable information for design engineers or spacecraft operators. An example of the latter is the physics of magnetic field emergence on the Sun; the phenomenon is relevant to the formation and launch of coronal mass ejections and is also causally related to the solar energetic particles that may get accelerated in the interplanetary shock. Unfortunately for the research community, the engineering community mitigates the space weather threat (single-event effects from heavy ions above ~50 MeV/nucleon) with a worst-case specification of the environment and not with a prediction. Worst-case definition requires data mining of past events, while predictions involve large-scale systems science from the Sun to the Earth that is compelling for scientists and their funding agencies but not actionable for design or for most operations. Differing priorities among different space-faring organizations only compounds the confusion over what science research is relevant. Solar particle impacts to human crew arise mainly from the total ionizing dose from the solar protons, so the priority for prediction in the human spaceflight community is therefore much different than in the unmanned satellite community, while both communities refer to the fundamental phenomenon as space weather. Our goal in this paper is the presentation of a brief tutorial on the primary space environmental phenomena

  10. The climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunetti, M.; Prodi, F.

    2015-08-01

    An overview of what we know about the climate of the planet Earth up to 5.5 millions of years from now is presented first, with the air temperature in proximity to the surface as the main, and more feasible, parameter to be followed. The behavior of this parameter exhibits a distinct periodicity with more internal fluctuations. This overview prompts us to a description of the physical basis of the climate system, capable of explaining such fluctuations. The system is the star-planet, initially described as a lamp-billiard ball simple system. Astronomical causes affect the distance lamp-billiard ball (star-planet) and the ball (Earth) rotation axis orientation, while astronomical causes affect the intensity of radiation emitted from the lamp (Sun). The complication introduced by the atmosphere is then explained, essentially through the triatomic gas molecules, aerosol and clouds. Atmospheric composition affects incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared one. The compartments relevant for climate definition are examined: lithosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, biosphere including vegetation and humans. However due to space limitations the interactions between the different compartments are not treated here and we restrict ourselves to the treatment of the atmosphere.

  11. Perceived and Actual Motivational Climate of a Mastery-Involving Sport Education Season

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hastie, Peter; Sinelnikov, Oleg; Wallhead, Tristan; Layne, Todd

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to implement a Sport Education season designed to be mastery-involving and examine the degree of congruence between the objective measure of the presented climate with the students' perceptions of the saliency of this motivational climate. Twenty-one male high school students (mean age of 15.9 years) and one…

  12. Actual evapotranspiration for a reference crop within measured and future changing climate periods in the Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Katerji, Nader; Rana, Gianfranco; Ferrara, Rossana Monica

    2016-05-01

    The study compares two formulas for calculating the daily evapotranspiration ET0 for a reference crop. The first formula was proposed by Allen et al. (AL), while the second one was proposed by Katerji and Perrier with the addition of the carbon dioxide (CO2) effect on evapotranspiration (KP). The study analyses the impact of the calculation by the two formulas on the irrigation requirement (IR). Both formulas are based on the Penman-Monteith equation but adopt different approaches for parameterising the canopy resistance r c . In the AL formula, r c is assumed constant and not sensitive to climate change, whereas in the KP formula, r c is first parameterised as a function of climatic variables, then ET0 is corrected for the air CO2 concentration. The two formulas were compared in two periods. The first period involves data from two sites in the Mediterranean region within a measured climate change period (1981-2006) when all the input climatic variables were measured. The second period (2070-2100) involves data from a future climate change period at one site when the input climatic variables were forecasted for two future climate scenarios (A2 and B2). The annual cumulated values of ET0 calculated by the AL formula are systematically lower than those determined by the KP formula. The differences between the ET0 estimation with the AL and KP formulas have a strong impact on the determination of the IR for the reference crop. In fact, for the two periods, the annual values of IR when ET0 is calculated by the AL formula are systematically lower than those calculated by the KP formula. For the actual measured climate change period, this reduction varied from 26 to 28 %, while for the future climate change period, it varied based on the scenario from 16 % (A2) to 20 % (B2).

  13. Arctic Climate Systems Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Ivey, Mark D.; Robinson, David G.; Boslough, Mark B.; Backus, George A.; Peterson, Kara J.; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart G.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Desilets, Darin Maurice; Reinert, Rhonda Karen

    2015-03-01

    This study began with a challenge from program area managers at Sandia National Laboratories to technical staff in the energy, climate, and infrastructure security areas: apply a systems-level perspective to existing science and technology program areas in order to determine technology gaps, identify new technical capabilities at Sandia that could be applied to these areas, and identify opportunities for innovation. The Arctic was selected as one of these areas for systems level analyses, and this report documents the results. In this study, an emphasis was placed on the arctic atmosphere since Sandia has been active in atmospheric research in the Arctic since 1997. This study begins with a discussion of the challenges and benefits of analyzing the Arctic as a system. It goes on to discuss current and future needs of the defense, scientific, energy, and intelligence communities for more comprehensive data products related to the Arctic; assess the current state of atmospheric measurement resources available for the Arctic; and explain how the capabilities at Sandia National Laboratories can be used to address the identified technological, data, and modeling needs of the defense, scientific, energy, and intelligence communities for Arctic support.

  14. Virtual vision system with actual flavor by olfactory display

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakamoto, Kunio; Kanazawa, Fumihiro

    2010-11-01

    The authors have researched multimedia system and support system for nursing studies on and practices of reminiscence therapy and life review therapy. The concept of the life review is presented by Butler in 1963. The process of thinking back on one's life and communicating about one's life to another person is called life review. There is a famous episode concerning the memory. It is called as Proustian effects. This effect is mentioned on the Proust's novel as an episode that a story teller reminds his old memory when he dipped a madeleine in tea. So many scientists research why smells trigger the memory. The authors pay attention to the relation between smells and memory although the reason is not evident yet. Then we have tried to add an olfactory display to the multimedia system so that the smells become a trigger of reminding buried memories. An olfactory display is a device that delivers smells to the nose. It provides us with special effects, for example to emit smell as if you were there or to give a trigger for reminding us of memories. The authors have developed a tabletop display system connected with the olfactory display. For delivering a flavor to user's nose, the system needs to recognition and measure positions of user's face and nose. In this paper, the authors describe an olfactory display which enables to detect the nose position for an effective delivery.

  15. Actualizing sustainability: environmental policy for resilience in ecological systems

    EPA Science Inventory

    Society benefits from ecological systems in many ways. These benefits are often referred to as ecosystem services (MA 2005). Because these services matter to humans, they are critical to sustainability. Sustainability has many definitions, but for this chapter, we link our defi...

  16. Climate Observing Systems: Data System Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karl, T. R.

    2001-12-01

    Existing observing and data systems have provided considerable information about past climate variations and changes. The recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Research Council, and the USGCRP National Assessment of Climate Variability and Change are testaments to a vast array of knowledge. These reports also expose some serious deficiencies in our ability to discern past climate variations and change which lead to substantial uncertainties in key climate state, climate feedback, and climate forcing variables. How significant are these uncertainties? For climate trends that have our highest confidence, like the change in mean global surface temperature, the 95 percent confidence intervals amount to about two-thirds of the calculated change. With such large uncertainties it is exceedingly difficult to discern accelerated changes. For other variables, especially variables related to climate feedbacks and forcings (with exceptions for long-lived and well-mixed greenhouse gases like CO2 or CH4) or climate and weather extremes, we often have little or no information to discern trends or cannot objectively assess confidence intervals. Do we know how to reduce existing uncertainties? First and foremost, a climate observation oversight and monitoring capability is needed that tracks the gathering of the data, the processing system, and the performance of the observations, especially time-dependent biases. An organized capability does not now exist, but could be developed at a new and/or existing centers. This center(s) should then have the means and influence to fix problems and be able to establish requirements for new in-situ and satellite observing including related data systems. Such a capability should complement the following: (1) Climate observations from both space-based and in-situ platforms that are taken in ways that address climate needs and adhere to the ten principles outlined by the NRC (1999 Adequacy of Climate

  17. Soil water availability as controlling factor for actual evapotranspiration in urban soil-vegetation-systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomsen, Simon; Reisdorff, Christoph; Gröngröft, Alexander; Jensen, Kai; Eschenbach, Annette

    2015-04-01

    The City of Hamburg is characterized by a large number of greens, parks and roadside trees: 600.000 trees cover about 14% of the city area, and moreover, 245.000 roadside trees can be found here. Urban vegetation is generally known to positively contribute to the urban micro-climate via cooling by evapotranspiration (ET). The water for ET is predominantly stored in the urban soils. Hence, the actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is - beside atmospheric drivers - determined by soil water availability at the soil surface and in the rooting zones of the respective vegetation. The overall aim of this study is to characterize soil water availability as a regulative factor for ETa in urban soil-vegetation systems. The specific questions addressed are: i) What is the spatio-temporal variation in soil water availability at the study sites? ii) Which soil depths are predominantly used for water uptake by the vegetation forms investigated? and iii) Which are the threshold values of soil water tension and soil water content (Θ), respectively, that limit ETa under dry conditions on both grass-dominated and tree-dominated sites? Three study areas were established in the urban region of Hamburg, Germany. We selected areas featuring both single tree stands and grass-dominated sites, both representing typical vegetation forms in Hamburg. The areas are characterized by relatively dry soil conditions. However, they differ in regard to soil water availability. At each area we selected one site dominated by Common Oak (Quercus ruber L.) with ages from 40 to 120 years, and paired each oak tree site with a neighboring grass-dominated site. All field measurements were performed during the years 2013 and 2014. At each site, we continuously measured soil water tension and Θ up to 160 cm depth, and xylem sap flux of each of three oak trees per site in a 15 min-resolution. Furthermore, we measured soil hydraulic properties as pF-curve, saturated and unsaturated conductivity at all sites

  18. Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

  19. Reaction chemistry of nitrogen species in hydrothermal systems: Simple reactions, waste simulants, and actual wastes

    SciTech Connect

    Dell`Orco, P.; Luan, L.; Proesmans, P.; Wilmanns, E.

    1995-02-01

    Results are presented from hydrothermal reaction systems containing organic components, nitrogen components, and an oxidant. Reaction chemistry observed in simple systems and in simple waste simulants is used to develop a model which presents global nitrogen chemistry in these reactive systems. The global reaction path suggested is then compared with results obtained for the treatment of an actual waste stream containing only C-N-0-H species.

  20. Leak Locating Experiment for Actual Underground Water Supply Pipelines with a Novel Locating System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Young-Sup; Yoon, Dong-Jin; Kang, Seokhoon; Jun, Kyungkoo; Choi, Byoungjo

    This paper presents a novel leak locating system to identify precise position of leak spots of underground water supply pipelines. The system has been studied and developed upon excellent foundation with modern mobile communication technology and the internet. However, the leak locating algorithm in the new system requires knowing the exact acoustical wave speed inside water-filled pipelines and the accurate time arrival difference between sensors to detect precise leak location. Especially the time difference is calculated with optimal maximum likelihood method. For the demonstration of the new system, an intensive experiment performed with 315 m long actual underground water supply pipelines showed an excellent detection capability.

  1. Observations of the Climate System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sellers, Piers J.

    2012-01-01

    Observations of the climate system are critical for model validation and initialization, and also for monitoring in case of "surprises." Presently. we are still benefiting from data provided by the international fleet of Earth Observing satellites launched from the late 1990's onwards as well as from the longer-term record provided hy the operational meteorological satellites. However, we could be facing some data gaps in the near term in some critical areas. In situ measurements continue to be vital and, while they may be augmented hy future satellite measurements, will continue to be irreplaceable.

  2. Optimum Design of a Passive Suspension System of a Vehicle Subjected to Actual Random Road Excitations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tamboli, J. A.; Joshi, S. G.

    1999-01-01

    Vehicles are subjected to random excitation due to road unevenness and variable velocity. In most research work reported earlier, the response analysis for Mean Square Acceleration Response (MSAR) has been carried out by considering the power spectral density (PSD) of the road excitation as white noise, and the velocity of the vehicle as constant. However, in the present paper the PSD of the actual road excitation has been found to follow an approximately exponentially decreasing curve. Also the change in vehicle velocity has a significant effect on the values of Root Mean Square Acceleration Response (RMSAR). Therefore, in this work, the RMSAR of a vehicle dynamic system subjected to actual random road excitations is obtained so as to account for the effect of the actual PSD of road excitation and the frequent changes in vehicle velocity. The RMSAR of the vehicle is calculated for actual field excitation using the Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) technique to obtain the PSD, by recording observations at the rear wheel. The effect of time lag due to wheelbase on the RMSAR of the vehicle is studied. For this purpose, a new ratio α(τ) has been introduced. The relationship between α(τ) and the autocorrelation has been formulated. This ratio is useful for considering the effect of time lag due to wheelbase on RMSAR. Similarly, the effect of vehicle velocity on the RMSAR is obtained.Further, from a ride comfort point of view, the values of the design variables like spring stiffness and viscous damping coefficient of the front and rear suspensions have been obtained, by minimising the RMSAR using the desired boundary values of the vertical RMSAR as specified in the chart of ISO 2631, 1985(E) [1].

  3. How Secure Is Your Information System? An Investigation into Actual Healthcare Worker Password Practices

    PubMed Central

    Cazier, Joseph A; Medlin, B. Dawn

    2006-01-01

    For most healthcare information systems, passwords are the first line of defense in keeping patient and administrative records private and secure. However, this defense is only as strong as the passwords employees chose to use. A weak or easily guessed password is like an open door to the medical records room, allowing unauthorized access to sensitive information. In this paper, we present the results of a study of actual healthcare workers' password practices. In general, the vast majority of these passwords have significant security problems on several dimensions. Implications for healthcare professionals are discussed. PMID:18066366

  4. The primary test of measuremental system for the actual emittance of relativistic electron beams

    SciTech Connect

    Liang Fu; Tai-bin Du; Xin Chen

    1995-12-31

    Recent, a new measuremental system has been established basically in Tsinghua University PRA. This system is able to measure the lower emittance of the electron beams from the RF accelerators for the FEL. It consists of a scanning magnetic field, a slit, a fluorescent screen, and a TV camera, an image processing system, a CAD 386 computer. Using it an actual phase diagram is obtained for 4-10 Mev electron beams, The principle and structure of the facility were reported in the Proceeding of the 15th FEL Conference. This paper describes the performance of the main components and the results of first measurement for the electron gun and 4Mev standing wave LINAC, Some new suggests are related too.

  5. The Ancient Martian Climate System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haberle, Robert M.

    2014-01-01

    Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. The atmosphere is thin and liquid water is not stable. But there is evidence that very early in its history it was warmer and wetter. Since Mariner 9 first detected fluvial features on its ancient terrains researchers have been trying to understand what climatic conditions could have permitted liquid water to flow on the surface. Though the evidence is compelling, the problem is not yet solved. The main issue is coping with the faint young sun. During the period when warmer conditions prevailed 3.5-3.8 Gy the sun's luminosity was approximately 25% less than it is today. How can we explain the presence of liquid water on the surface of Mars under such conditions? A similar problem exists for Earth, which would have frozen over under a faint sun even though the evidence suggests otherwise. Attempts to solve the "Faint Young Sun Paradox" rely on greenhouse warming from an atmosphere with a different mass and composition than we see today. This is true for both Mars and Earth. However, it is not a straightforward solution. Any greenhouse theory must (a) produce the warming and rainfall needed, (b) have a plausible source for the gases required, (c) be sustainable, and (d) explain how the atmosphere evolved to its present state. These are challenging requirements and judging from the literature they have yet to be met. In this talk I will review the large and growing body of work on the early Mars climate system. I will take a holistic approach that involves many disciplines since our goal is to present an integrated view that touches on each of the requirements listed in the preceding paragraph. I will begin with the observational evidence, which comes from the geology, mineralogy, and isotopic data. Each of the data sets presents a consistent picture of a warmer and wetter past with a thicker atmosphere. How much warmer and wetter and how much thicker is a matter of debate, but conditions then were certainly different than

  6. Weather Climate Interactions and Extreme Events in the Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Redmond, K. T.

    2014-12-01

    The most pronounced local impacts of climate change would occur in association with extreme weather events superimposed on the altered climate. Thus a major thrust of recent efforts in the climate community has been to assess how extreme regional events such as cold air outbreaks, heat waves, tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, and severe weather might change with the climate. Many of these types of events are poorly simulated in climate models because of insufficient spatial resolution and insufficient quality parameterization of sub grid scale convection and radiation processes. This talk summarizes examples selected from those discussed below of how weather and climate events can be interconnected so that the physics of natural climate and weather phenomena depend on each other, thereby complicating our ability to simulate extreme events. A major focus of the chapter is on the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO), which is associated with alternating eastward-moving planetary scale regions of enhanced and suppressed moist deep convection favoring warm pool regions in the tropics. The MJO modulates weather events around the world and influences the evolution of interannual climate variability. We first discuss how the MJO evolves together with the seasonal cycle, the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO), and the extratropical circulation, then continue with a case study illustration of how El Niño is intrinsically coupled to intraseasonal and synoptic weather events such as the MJO and westerly wind bursts. This interconnectedness in the system implies that modeling many types of regional extreme weather events requires more than simply downscaling coarse climate model signals to nested regional models because extreme outcomes in a region can depend on poorly simulated extreme weather in distant parts of the world. The authors hope that an improved understanding of these types of interactions between signals across scales of time and space will ultimately yield

  7. Weather Climate Interactions and Extreme Events in the Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roundy, P. E.

    2015-12-01

    The most pronounced local impacts of climate change would occur in association with extreme weather events superimposed on the altered climate. Thus a major thrust of recent efforts in the climate community has been to assess how extreme regional events such as cold air outbreaks, heat waves, tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, and severe weather might change with the climate. Many of these types of events are poorly simulated in climate models because of insufficient spatial resolution and insufficient quality parameterization of sub grid scale convection and radiation processes. This talk summarizes examples selected from those discussed below of how weather and climate events can be interconnected so that the physics of natural climate and weather phenomena depend on each other, thereby complicating our ability to simulate extreme events. A major focus of the chapter is on the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO), which is associated with alternating eastward-moving planetary scale regions of enhanced and suppressed moist deep convection favoring warm pool regions in the tropics. The MJO modulates weather events around the world and influences the evolution of interannual climate variability. We first discuss how the MJO evolves together with the seasonal cycle, the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO), and the extratropical circulation, then continue with a case study illustration of how El Niño is intrinsically coupled to intraseasonal and synoptic weather events such as the MJO and westerly wind bursts. This interconnectedness in the system implies that modeling many types of regional extreme weather events requires more than simply downscaling coarse climate model signals to nested regional models because extreme outcomes in a region can depend on poorly simulated extreme weather in distant parts of the world. The authors hope that an improved understanding of these types of interactions between signals across scales of time and space will ultimately yield

  8. Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory

  9. Thermal Protection System Cavity Heating for Simplified and Actual Geometries Using Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations with Unstructured Grids

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McCloud, Peter L.

    2010-01-01

    Thermal Protection System (TPS) Cavity Heating is predicted using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) on unstructured grids for both simplified cavities and actual cavity geometries. Validation was performed using comparisons to wind tunnel experimental results and CFD predictions using structured grids. Full-scale predictions were made for simplified and actual geometry configurations on the Space Shuttle Orbiter in a mission support timeframe.

  10. Actual versus design performance of solar systems in the National Solar Data Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Logee, T. L.; Kendall, P. W.

    1984-09-01

    Field measured performance were compared to the designer predicted performance. The field measured data were collected by the National Solar Data Network (NSDN) over a period of 6 years. Data from 25 solar systems were selected from a data pool of some 170 solar systems. Several concerns arose which can be partially allayed by study of the NSDN data. These are: what types of failures occurred and why; how good was the design versus actual performance; why was predicted performance not achieved in the field; and which components should be integrated with a system type for good performance. The measured results were also compared to f-chart 5.1 results. This comparison is a type of normalization in that all systems are modeled with the same process. An added benefit of this normalization is a further validation of the f-Chart model on a fairly large scale. The systems are modeled using equipment design parameters, measured loads, and f-Chart weather data from nearby cities.

  11. Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4

    DOE PAGES

    Bitz, Cecilia M.; Shell, K. M.; Gent, P. R.; Bailey, D. A.; Danabasoglu, G.; Armour, K. C.; Holland, M. M.; Kiehl, J. T.

    2012-05-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.20°C for 1° horizontal resolution in each component. This is about a half degree Celsius higher than in the previous version (CCSM3). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 1° resolution is 1.72°C, which is about 0.2°C higher than in CCSM3. These higher climate sensitivities in CCSM4 cannot be explained by the change to a preindustrial baseline climate. We use the radiative kernel technique to show that from CCSM3 to CCSM4, the global mean lapse-rate feedback declines in magnitude, and the shortwave cloud feedback increases. These twomore » warming effects are partially canceled by cooling due to slight decreases in the global mean water-vapor feedback and longwave cloud feedback from CCSM3 to CCSM4. A new formulation of the mixed-layer, slab ocean model in CCSM4 attempts to reproduce the SST and sea ice climatology from an integration with a full-depth ocean, and it is integrated with a dynamic sea ice model. These new features allow an isolation of the influence of ocean dynamical changes on the climate response when comparing integrations with the slab ocean and full-depth ocean. The transient climate response of the full-depth ocean version is 0.54 of the equilibrium climate sensitivity when estimated with the new slab ocean model version for both CCSM3 and CCSM4. We argue the ratio is the same in both versions because they have about the same zonal mean pattern of change in ocean surface heat flux, which broadly resembles the zonal mean pattern of net feedback strength.« less

  12. Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4

    SciTech Connect

    Bitz, Cecilia M.; Shell, K. M.; Gent, P. R.; Bailey, D. A.; Danabasoglu, G.; Armour, K. C.; Holland, M. M.; Kiehl, J. T.

    2012-05-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.20°C for 1° horizontal resolution in each component. This is about a half degree Celsius higher than in the previous version (CCSM3). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 1° resolution is 1.72°C, which is about 0.2°C higher than in CCSM3. These higher climate sensitivities in CCSM4 cannot be explained by the change to a preindustrial baseline climate. We use the radiative kernel technique to show that from CCSM3 to CCSM4, the global mean lapse-rate feedback declines in magnitude, and the shortwave cloud feedback increases. These two warming effects are partially canceled by cooling due to slight decreases in the global mean water-vapor feedback and longwave cloud feedback from CCSM3 to CCSM4. A new formulation of the mixed-layer, slab ocean model in CCSM4 attempts to reproduce the SST and sea ice climatology from an integration with a full-depth ocean, and it is integrated with a dynamic sea ice model. These new features allow an isolation of the influence of ocean dynamical changes on the climate response when comparing integrations with the slab ocean and full-depth ocean. The transient climate response of the full-depth ocean version is 0.54 of the equilibrium climate sensitivity when estimated with the new slab ocean model version for both CCSM3 and CCSM4. We argue the ratio is the same in both versions because they have about the same zonal mean pattern of change in ocean surface heat flux, which broadly resembles the zonal mean pattern of net feedback strength.

  13. Management system, organizational climate and performance relationships

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davis, B. D.

    1979-01-01

    Seven aerospace firms were investigated to determine if a relationship existed among management systems, organizational climate, and organization performance. Positive relationships were found between each of these variables, but a statistically significant relationship existed only between the management system and organizational climate. The direction and amount of communication and the degree of decentralized decision-making, elements of the management system, also had a statistically significant realtionship with organization performance.

  14. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Kubar, T. L.; Li, J.; Zhang, J.; Wang, W.

    2015-12-01

    Both the National Research Council Decadal Survey and the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with the synergistic use of global satellite observations in order to improve our weather and climate simulation and prediction capabilities. The abundance of satellite observations for fundamental climate parameters and the availability of coordinated model outputs from CMIP5 for the same parameters offer a great opportunity to understand and diagnose model biases in climate models. In addition, the Obs4MIPs efforts have created several key global observational datasets that are readily usable for model evaluations. However, a model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. In response, we have developed a novel methodology to diagnose model biases in contemporary climate models and implementing the methodology as a web-service based, cloud-enabled, provenance-supported climate-model evaluation system. The evaluation system is named Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), which is the product of the research and technology development investments of several current and past NASA ROSES programs. The current technologies and infrastructure of CMDA are designed and selected to address several technical challenges that the Earth science modeling and model analysis community faces in evaluating and diagnosing climate models. In particular, we have three key technology components: (1) diagnostic analysis methodology; (2) web-service based, cloud-enabled technology; (3) provenance-supported technology. The diagnostic analysis methodology includes random forest feature importance ranking, conditional probability distribution function, conditional sampling, and time-lagged correlation map. We have implemented the

  15. [Cooperation with the electronic medical record and accounting system of an actual dose of drug given by a radiology information system].

    PubMed

    Yamamoto, Hideo; Yoneda, Tarou; Satou, Shuji; Ishikawa, Toru; Hara, Misako

    2009-12-20

    By input of the actual dose of a drug given into a radiology information system, the system converting with an accounting system into a cost of the drug from the actual dose in the electronic medical record was built. In the drug master, the first unit was set as the cost of the drug, and we set the second unit as the actual dose. The second unit in the radiology information system was received by the accounting system through electronic medical record. In the accounting system, the actual dose was changed into the cost of the drug using the dose of conversion to the first unit. The actual dose was recorded on a radiology information system and electronic medical record. The actual dose was indicated on the accounting system, and the cost for the drug was calculated. About the actual dose of drug, cooperation of the information in a radiology information system and electronic medical record were completed. It was possible to decide the volume of drug from the correct dose of drug at the previous inspection. If it is necessary for the patient to have another treatment of medicine, it is important to know the actual dose of drug given. Moreover, authenticity of electronic medical record based on a statute has also improved.

  16. The Community Climate System Model: CCSM3

    SciTech Connect

    Collins, W D; Blackmon, M; Bitz, C; Bonan, G; Bretherton, C S; Carton, J A; Chang, P; Doney, S; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Henderson, T; Large, W G; McKenna, D; Santer, B D; Smith, R D

    2004-12-27

    A new version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) has been developed and released to the climate community. CCSM3 is a coupled climate model with components representing the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface connected by a flux coupler. CCSM3 is designed to produce realistic simulations over a wide range of spatial resolutions, enabling inexpensive simulations lasting several millennia or detailed studies of continental-scale climate change. This paper will show results from the configuration used for climate-change simulations with a T85 grid for atmosphere and land and a 1-degree grid for ocean and sea-ice. The new system incorporates several significant improvements in the scientific formulation. The enhancements in the model physics are designed to reduce or eliminate several systematic biases in the mean climate produced by previous editions of CCSM. These include new treatments of cloud processes, aerosol radiative forcing, land-atmosphere fluxes, ocean mixed-layer processes, and sea-ice dynamics. There are significant improvements in the sea-ice thickness, polar radiation budgets, equatorial sea-surface temperatures, ocean currents, cloud radiative effects, and ENSO teleconnections. CCSM3 can produce stable climate simulations of millenial duration without ad hoc adjustments to the fluxes exchanged among the component models. Nonetheless, there are still systematic biases in the ocean-atmosphere fluxes in western coastal regions, the spectrum of ENSO variability, the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and the continental precipitation and surface air temperatures. We conclude with the prospects for extending CCSM to a more comprehensive model of the Earth's climate system.

  17. Climate change impacts on food system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

    2014-12-01

    Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

  18. Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions.

    PubMed

    Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Obersteiner, Michael; Schmid, Erwin; Rufino, Mariana C; Mosnier, Aline; Thornton, Philip K; Böttcher, Hannes; Conant, Richard T; Frank, Stefan; Fritz, Steffen; Fuss, Sabine; Kraxner, Florian; Notenbaert, An

    2014-03-11

    Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO2e⋅y(-1)), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions from both the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO2e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO2e⋅y(-1). Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra- and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO2e⋅y(-1) could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient--measured in "total abatement calorie cost"--than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes.

  19. Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions

    PubMed Central

    Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Obersteiner, Michael; Schmid, Erwin; Rufino, Mariana C.; Mosnier, Aline; Thornton, Philip K.; Böttcher, Hannes; Conant, Richard T.; Frank, Stefan; Fritz, Steffen; Fuss, Sabine; Kraxner, Florian; Notenbaert, An

    2014-01-01

    Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO2e⋅y−1), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions from both the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO2e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO2e⋅y−1. Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra- and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO2e⋅y−1 could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient—measured in “total abatement calorie cost”—than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes. PMID:24567375

  20. The climate system as a ticking clock

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, R.A.

    1990-09-14

    Climate researchers are picking up a more or less regular 2-year beat to the global climate system - one that seems to be heard from every quarter. The most recently discovered example of this climatic ticking - and perhaps the most intriguing - comes from the very core of El Nino. Researchers have found that some aspects of this cycle of alternating warm and relatively cold waters along the equatorial Pacific have a tendency to repeat every 2 years. The overlying winds pulsate at the same pace, as do the globe-girdling effects of the El Nino cycle, from winter warmth in Alaska to heavy rains in Peru and drought in Australia. The climatic ticking in the tropical Pacific is hardly as reliable as the changing of the seasons. Sometimes it is muted, and occasionally it skips a beat. But some researchers nevertheless see hope of using it in the prediction of El Nino and its global effects. In any case, climate researchers are eager to determine what makes El Nino tick. The answer could be an underlying pacemaker of this crucial atmospheric cycle.

  1. Biodegradation of polyacrylamide by anaerobic digestion under mesophilic condition and its performance in actual dewatered sludge system.

    PubMed

    Dai, Xiaohu; Luo, Fan; Yi, Jing; He, Qunbiao; Dong, Bin

    2014-02-01

    Polyacrylamide (PAM) used in sludge dewatering widely exists in high-solid anaerobic digestion. Degradation of polyacrylamide accompanied with accumulation of its toxic monomer is important to disposition of biogas residues. The potential of anaerobic digestion activity in microbial utilization of PAM was investigated in this study. The results indicated that the utilization rate of PAM (as nitrogen source) was influenced by accumulation of ammonia, while cumulative removal of amide group was accorded with zeroth order reaction in actual dewatered system. The adjoining amide group can combined into ether group after biodegradation. PAM can be broken down in different position of its carbon chain backbone. In actual sludge system, the hydrolytic PAM was liable to combined tyrosine-rich protein to form colloid complex, and then consumed as carbon source to form monomer when easily degradable organics were exhausted. The accumulation of acrylamide was leveled off ultimately, accompanied with the yield of methane.

  2. Raising Climate Literacy of K-12 Teachers with Datastreme Earth's Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brey, J. A.; Geer, I.; Weinbeck, R. S.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.

    2014-12-01

    The American Meteorological Society (AMS) DataStreme Project is a free professional development program for in-service K-12 teachers, in which they gain considerable subject matter content and confidence in Earth science instruction. DataStreme Atmosphere, Ocean, and Earth's Climate System (ECS) are offered each fall and spring semester by Local Implementation Teams (LITs) across the country in coordination with a team of AMS Education Program scientists and educators who develop instructional materials, provide logistical support to the LITs, and administer the project. The 3-member LITs mentor about 8 teachers and in some instances an emergency manager, per semester through a given DataStreme course. Teachers may receive 3 tuition-free graduate credits through State University of New York's The College at Brockport upon completion of each DataStreme course. DataStreme is in close alignment with A Framework for K-12 Science Education and the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). Investigating the scientific basis of the workings of Earth's atmosphere, ocean, and climate system follows the cross-cutting theme of the Framework and the NGSS and is the cornerstone of the DataStreme courses. In particular, DataStreme ECS explores the fundamental science of Earth's climate system and addresses the societal impacts relevant to today's teachers and students. The course utilizes resources from respected organizations, such as the IPCC and U.S. Global Change Research Program. Key to the NGSS is that students learn disciplinary core ideas in the context of science and engineering practices. In order for the students to learn in this way, the AMS believes that it is important to train the teachers in this context. DataStreme ECS emphasizes investigation of real-word and current NASA and NOAA data. Participants also are made aware of NASA's EdGCM, a research-grade Global Climate Model where they can explore various future climate scenarios in the same way that actual

  3. Pilot climate data system user's guide

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reph, M. G.; Treinish, L. A.; Bloch, L.

    1984-01-01

    Instructions for using the Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS), an interactive, scientific data management system for locating, obtaining, manipulating, and displaying climate-research data are presented. The PCDS currently provides this supoort for approximately twenty data sets. Figures that illustrate the terminal displays which a user sees when he/she runs the PCDS and some examples of the output from this system are included. The capabilities which are described in detail allow a user to perform the following: (1) obtain comprehensive descriptions of a number of climate parameter data sets and the associated sensor measurements from which they were derived; (2) obtain detailed information about the temporal coverage and data volume of data sets which are readily accessible via the PCDS; (3) extract portions of a data set using criteria such as time range and geographic location, and output the data to tape, user terminal, system printer, or online disk files in a special data-set-independent format; (4) access and manipulate the data in these data-set-independent files, performing such functions as combining the data, subsetting the data, and averaging the data; and (5) create various graphical representations of the data stored in the data-set-independent files.

  4. The Actual (Un)usefulness of the Bologna System in Medical Education

    PubMed Central

    Masic, Izet; Begic, Edin

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Faculty of Medicine, University of Sarajevo has officially started working on 22.11.1944, and is the oldest faculty in the medical field in Bosnia and Herzegovina. At the same time there are two systems of organization of the teaching process, the old system and the Bologna system. Aim: To analyze the implementation of the Bologna system, and making an overview of its justification. Material and methods: Answers from questionnaires from total of 459 students were analyzed (197 who had studied under the old system and 262 who studied under the Bologna system), so total of four generations of the Bologna system. They filled out a questionnaire in which they evaluated the teaching process. Student’s opinion about quality of medical education was measured by modified Lickert scale. Results: Students of old system are older than students of the Bologna process, whose average age is increasing from generation to generation, given the growing number of students who repeat a year. All students of old system repeated an academic year once or several times (p <0.05). Analysis of average grades showed statistically significant difference (p <0.05), where students in the Bologna system had higher averages than students who were studying under the old system. The presence of large number of female students, in both systems is significant (p <0.05). Out of 33 questions about satisfaction of class, 15 were answered with better average grade from students of the Bologna system. A slight improvement in the Bologna system is in terms of the evaluation of the quality of the educational process (teachers, methods, effects). The only significant progress has been proven in terms of rating the degree of computerization of the educational process–general records on enrolled students (old system vs Bologna system–3,44 vs 3,63), record of attendance (3,47 vs 3,73), obtaining certificates (3,08 vs 3,84), method of registration of exam (2,98 vs 3,71), method of practical

  5. Cadmium and zinc interactions and their transfer in soil-crop system under actual field conditions.

    PubMed

    Nan, Zhongren; Li, Jijun; Zhang, Jianming; Cheng, Guodong

    2002-02-21

    The transfer of Cd and Zn from calcareous soils nearby a non-ferrous mining and smelting bases to the spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and corn (Zea mays L.) tissues and the interactions between the two metals concerned were investigated under actual field conditions. Samples of soils and entire crops were randomly collected during harvest time in 1998 in the Baiyin region. The soil metal contents showed that the furrows had been polluted (mean values: 3.16 mg kg(-1) for Cd; 146.78 mg kg(-1) for Zn) and the significant spatial variation of the soil contamination existed here (ranges, Cd: 0.14-19.3 mg kg(-1); Zn: 43.5-565.0 mg kg(-1)). The translocation ratios of the two metals from soil to crop parts in the region studied were relatively lower and the order of the element transfer in different plant tissues was root > stem > grain. The transfer ratio of element Cd was lower than that of element Zn. Cd and Zn uptake by the crop structures could be best described by four models (P < 0.01): linear; exponential; quadratic; and cubic. Apart from a linear relationship between the element Cd in the corn grains and soils, models were generally non-lincar. An analysis of Cd-Zn interaction mechanism led to the conclusion that the effects of the two metals were synergistic to each other under field conditions, in which increasing Cd and Zn contents in soils could increase the accumulations of Zn or Cd in the two crops.

  6. Network of Networks and the Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurths, Jürgen; Boers, Niklas; Bookhagen, Bodo; Donges, Jonathan; Donner, Reik; Malik, Nishant; Marwan, Norbert; Stolbova, Veronika

    2013-04-01

    Network of networks is a new direction in complex systems science. One can find such networks in various fields, such as infrastructure (power grids etc.), human brain or Earth system. Basic properties and new characteristics, such as cross-degree, or cross-betweenness will be discussed. This allows us to quantify the structural role of single vertices or whole sub-networks with respect to the interaction of a pair of subnetworks on local, mesoscopic, and global topological scales. Next, we consider an inverse problem: Is there a backbone-like structure underlying the climate system? For this we propose a method to reconstruct and analyze a complex network from data generated by a spatio-temporal dynamical system. This technique is then applied to 3-dimensional data of the climate system. We interpret different heights in the atmosphere as different networks and the whole as a network of networks. This approach enables us to uncover relations to global circulation patterns in oceans and atmosphere. The global scale view on climate networks offers promising new perspectives for detecting dynamical structures based on nonlinear physical processes in the climate system. This concept is applied to Indian Monsoon data in order to characterize the regional occurrence of strong rain events and its impact on predictability. References: Arenas, A., A. Diaz-Guilera, J. Kurths, Y. Moreno, and C. Zhou, Phys. Reports 2008, 469, 93. Donges, J., Y. Zou, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths, Europhys. Lett. 2009, 87, 48007. Donner, R., Y. Zou, J. Donges, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths, Phys. Rev. E 2010, 81, 015101(R ). Mokhov, I. I., D. A. Smirnov, P. I. Nakonechny, S. S. Kozlenko, E. P. Seleznev, and J. Kurths, Geophys. Res. Lett. 2011, 38, L00F04. Malik, N., B. Bookhagen, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths, Climate Dynamics, 2012, 39, 971. Donges, J., H. Schultz, N. Marwan, Y. Zou, J. Kurths, Eur. J. Phys. B 2011, 84, 635-651. Donges, J., R. Donner, M. Trauth, N. Marwan, H.J. Schellnhuber, and J. Kurths

  7. Evaluation of the interactive chemistry of coal-petroleum systems using model and actual reactants

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis, C.W.; Chung, Wook Jin )

    1988-01-01

    The coprocessing of coal with petroleum residuum simultaneously liquefies coal and upgrades petroleum residuum into higher value products. However, coal and petroleum residuum manifest very different chemical properties with coal being more aromatic with a H/C ratio of 0.6 - 0.8 and petroleum residuum more aliphatic with a H/C ratio of 1.4 to 1.6. Although a number of studies have demonstrated the feasibility of coprocessing on the basis of product selectivity and metals reduction, the interactive chemistry involved between the coal and petroleum materials during coprocessing has not yet been determined. In this study, the interactive chemistry between coal and petroleum molecules has been examined: first by using model compound types representative of coal and residuum and then by combining the model systems with Illinois No. 6 coal and Maya topped long residuum (TLR). The model systems, composed of naphthalene (NAPH) representing aromatics, 1,4-dimethylcyclohexane (DMC) representing saturated compounds, phenol (PN) representing phenolics, benzothiophene (BZT) representing sulfur compounds, and quinoline (QN) representing nitrogen compounds, were reacted thermally and catalytically using a Shell 324 NiMo/Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} catalyst. The model systems were reacted individually and then combined together to ascertain the effect of the different components on the thermal and catalytic reactions of the different model systems. Illinois No. 6 coal and Maya TLR were each, respectively, added to the model compound systems and reacted thermally and catalytically.

  8. Evaluation of the interactive chemistry of coal-petroleum systems using model and actual reactants

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis, C.W.; Chung, W.J. )

    1988-06-01

    The coprocessing of coal with petroleum residuum simultaneously liquefies coal and upgrades petroleum residuum into higher value products. However, coal and petroleum residuum manifest very different chemical properties with coal being more aromatic with a H/C ratio of 0.6 - 0.8 and petroleum residuum more aliphatic with a H/C ratio of 1.4 to 1.6. Although a number of studies have demonstrated the feasibility of coprocessing on the basis of product selectivity and metals reduction (1-8), the interactive chemistry involved between the coal and petroleum materials during coprocessing has not yet been determined. In this study, the interactive chemistry between coal and petroleum molecules have been examined: first by using model compound types representative of coal and residuum and then by combining the model systems will Illinois No. 6 coal and Maya topped long residuum (TLR). The model systems, composed of napthalene (NAPH) representing aromatics, 1,4- dimethylcyclohexane (DMC) representing saturated compounds, phenol (PN) representing phenolics, benzothiophene (BZT) representing suflur compounds, and quinoline (QN) representing nitrogen compounds, were reacted thermally and catalytically using a Shell 324 NiMo/Al/sub 2/O/sub 3/ catalyst. The model systems were reacted individually and then combined together to ascertain the effect of the different components on the thermal and catalytic reactions of the different model systems. Illinois No. 6 coal and Maya TLR were each, respectively, added to the model compound systems and reacted thermally and catalytically.

  9. Modeling and testing of fractionation effects with refrigerant blends in an actual residential heat pump system

    SciTech Connect

    Biancardi, F.R.; Pandy, D.R.; Sienel, T.H.; Michels, H.H.

    1997-12-31

    The heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) industry is actively evaluating and testing hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerant blends as a means of complying with current and impending national and international environmental regulations restricting the use and disposal of conventional chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) refrigerants that contribute to the global ozone-depletion effects. While analyses and system performance tools have shown that HFC refrigerant blends offer certain performance, capacity, and operational advantages, there are significant possible service and operational issues that are raised by the use of blends. Many of these issues occur due to the fractionation of the blends. Therefore, the objective of this program was to conduct analyses and experimental tests aimed at understanding these issues, develop approaches or techniques to predict these effects, and convey to the industry safe and reliable approaches. As a result, analytical models verified by laboratory data have been developed that predict the fractionation effects of HFC refrigerant blends (1) when exposed to selected POE lubricants, (2) during the system charging process from large liquid containers, and (3) during system start-up, operation, and shutdown within various system components (where two-phase refrigerant exists) and during selected system and component leakage scenarios. Model predictions and experimental results are presented for HFC refrigerant blends containing R-32, R-134a, and R-125 and the data are generalized for various operating conditions and scenarios.

  10. Variable temperature seat climate control system

    DOEpatents

    Karunasiri, Tissa R.; Gallup, David F.; Noles, David R.; Gregory, Christian T.

    1997-05-06

    A temperature climate control system comprises a variable temperature seat, at least one heat pump, at least one heat pump temperature sensor, and a controller. Each heat pump comprises a number of Peltier thermoelectric modules for temperature conditioning the air in a main heat exchanger and a main exchanger fan for passing the conditioned air from the main exchanger to the variable temperature seat. The Peltier modules and each main fan may be manually adjusted via a control switch or a control signal. Additionally, the temperature climate control system may comprise a number of additional temperature sensors to monitor the temperature of the ambient air surrounding the occupant as well as the temperature of the conditioned air directed to the occupant. The controller is configured to automatically regulate the operation of the Peltier modules and/or each main fan according to a temperature climate control logic designed both to maximize occupant comfort during normal operation, and minimize possible equipment damage, occupant discomfort, or occupant injury in the event of a heat pump malfunction.

  11. Whom Do Employers Actually Hire? The Educating Systems Librarian Research Project Report 2.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Hong; Chen, Hsin-liang

    2000-01-01

    This follow-up report of 133 job advertisements for systems librarians in "American Libraries" during 1996-97 compares results of a content analysis of advertisements and a survey of employers and newly hired librarians. Results show gaps in regard to education requirements, work experience, job responsibilities, and areas of knowledge and skills.…

  12. Precambrian evolution of the climate system.

    PubMed

    Walker, J C

    1990-01-01

    Climate is an important environmental parameter of the early Earth, likely to have affected the origin and evolution of life, the composition and mineralogy of sedimentary rocks, and stable isotope ratios in sedimentary minerals. There is little observational evidence constraining Precambrian climates. Most of our knowledge is at present theoretical. Factors that must have affected the climate include reduced solar luminosity, enhanced rotation rate of the Earth, an area of land that probably increased with time, and biological evolution, particularly as it affected the composition of the atmosphere and the greenhouse effect. Cloud cover is a major uncertainty about the early Earth. Carbon dioxide and its greenhouse effect are the factors that have been most extensively studied. This paper presents a new examination of the biogeochemical cycles of carbon as they may have changed between an Archean Earth deficient in land, sedimentary rocks, and biological activity, and a Proterozoic Earth much like the modern Earth, but lacking terrestrial life and carbonate-secreting plankton. Results of a numerical simulation of this transition show how increasing biological activity could have drawn down atmospheric carbon dioxide by extracting sedimentary organic carbon from the system. Increasing area of continents could further have drawn down carbon dioxide by encouraging the accumulation of carbonate sediments. An attempt to develop a numerical simulation of the carbon cycles of the Precambrian raises questions about sources and sinks of marine carbon and alkalinity on a world without continents. More information is needed about sea-floor weathering processes.

  13. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system

    SciTech Connect

    Lenton, T.M.; Held, H.; Lucht, W.; Rahmstorf, S.; Kriegler, E. |; Hall, J.W.; Schellnhuber, H.J. |

    2008-02-12

    The term 'tipping point' commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here the authors introduce the term 'tipping element' to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. They critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and they assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then the authors explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points.

  14. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Jiang, J. H.

    2013-12-01

    The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations. The traditional approach to climate model evaluation, which compares a single parameter at a time, identifies symptomatic model biases and errors but fails to diagnose the model problems. The model diagnosis process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. To address these challenges, we are developing a parallel, distributed web-service system that enables the physics-based multi-variable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. We have developed a methodology to transform an existing science application code into a web service using a Python wrapper interface and Python web service frameworks (i.e., Flask, Gunicorn, and Tornado). The web-service system, called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), currently supports (1) all the datasets from Obs4MIPs and a few ocean datasets from NOAA and Argo, which can serve as observation-based reference data for model evaluation and (2) many of CMIP5 model outputs covering a broad range of atmosphere, ocean, and land variables from the CMIP5 specific historical runs and AMIP runs. Analysis capabilities currently supported by CMDA are (1) the calculation of annual and seasonal means of physical variables, (2) the calculation of time evolution of the means in any specified geographical region, (3) the calculation of correlation between two variables, and (4) the calculation of difference between two variables. A web user interface is chosen for CMDA because it not only lowers the learning curve and removes the adoption barrier of the tool but also enables instantaneous use

  15. An Assessment of Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100 Using NASA's MERRA and CMIP5 Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Chandler, William S.; Hoell, James M.; Westberg, David; Zhang, Taiping

    2015-01-01

    Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile

  16. NASA's climate data system primer, version 1.2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Closs, James W.; Reph, Mary G.; Olsen, Lola M.

    1989-01-01

    This is a beginner's manual for NASA's Climate Data System (NCDS), an interactive scientific information management system that allows one to locate, access, manipulate, and display climate-research data. Additional information on the use of the system is available from the system itself.

  17. Fennec - The Saharan Climate System: an overview

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Washington, R.; Parker, D. J.; Marsham, J. H.; McQuaid, J.; Brindley, H.; Todd, M. C.; Highwood, E. J.; Flamant, C.; Chaboureau, J.-P.; Kocha, C.; Saci, A.; Bechir, M.

    2012-04-01

    The central Sahara has one of the most extreme climates on Earth. During the northern summer months, a large low pressure system caused by intense solar heating develops over a huge, largely uninhabited expanse of northern Mali, southern Algeria and eastern Mauritania. Temperatures in the high 40s, with uplift of dry air through more than 5000m of the atmosphere, are routine in what is thought to be the deepest such layer on the planet. This large zone is also where the thickest layer of dust anywhere in the Earth's atmosphere is found. The atmospheric aerosol loading and thermodynamics over the Sahara are unique, and have major impacts on the climate of the whole North African sector, Europe and the Atlantic. Weather and climate prediction models show significant systematic errors over the Sahara desert manifested as differences in radiation reaching and leaving the surface, surface temperature, winds, dust and in representation of the boundary layer. Progress in understanding these features and errors is currently limited due to the lack of observations in the central Saharan region. Fennec is a large scale, multi-platform, extended duration observational campaign in the Saharan Heat Low (SHL) region. During the summer of 2011 a major campaign set about addressing the data deficiency of this important region. The campaign, which involved many more people than are indicated by the authorship of this abstract, featured the use of the instrumented BAe-146 and Falcon aircraft as well as supersite ground-stations both Algeria and Mauritania. The purpose of this overview is to describe the observational campaign, particularly as it relates to the effort to understand dust over the region.

  18. [The Red Cross System for War Relief during the Second World War and Actual Conditions of Its Efforts in Burma].

    PubMed

    Kawahara, Yukari

    2015-12-01

    This paper aims to show the system for relief provided by the Japanese Red Cross relief units during the Second World War, as well as the actual activities of sixteen of its relief units dispatched to Burma. The Red Cross wartime relief efforts involved using personnel and funding prepared beforehand to provide aid to those injured in war, regardless of their status as ally or enemy. Thus they were able to receive support from the army in order to ensure safety and provide supplies. Nurses dispatched to Burma took care of many patients who suffered from malnutrition and physical injuries amidst the outbreak of infectious diseases typical of tropical areas, without sufficient replacement members. Base hospitals not meant for the front lines also came under attack, and the nurses' lives were thus in mortal danger. Of the 374 original members, 29 died or went missing in action.

  19. Actual versus predicted performance of an active solar heating system - A comparison using FCHART 4.0

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wetzel, P. E.

    1981-11-01

    The performance of an active solar heating system added to a house in Denver, CO was compared with predictions made by the FCHART 4.0 computer program. The house featured 43.23 sq m of collectors with an ethylene-glycol/water heat transfer fluid, and a 3.23 cu m storage tank. The house hot water was preheated in the storage tank, and home space heat was furnished whenever the storage water was above 32 C. Actual meteorological and heating demand data were used for the comparison, rather than long-term averages. Although monthly predictions by the FCHART program were found to diverge from measured data, the annual demand and supply predictions provided a good fit, i.e. within 9%, and were within 1% of the measured solar energy contributed to storage.

  20. Using MERRA, AMIP II, CMIP5 Outputs to Assess Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stackhouse, P. W.; Westberg, D. J.; Hoell, J. M., Jr.; Chandler, W.; Zhang, T.

    2014-12-01

    In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Thus, increasing the energy efficiency of buildings is paramount to reducing energy costs and emissions. Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climates zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE (formerly known as the American Society of Hearting, Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning Engineers). A significant shortcoming of the methodology used in constructing such maps is the use of surface observations (located mainly near airports) that are unequally distributed and frequently have periods of missing data that need to be filled by various approximation schemes. This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the ASHRAE climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones. These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and some tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones that require longer time series to confirm. Using the uncertainties of the basic surface temperature and precipitation parameters from MERRA as determined by comparison to surface measurements, we first compare patterns and variability of ASHRAE climate zones from MERRA relative to present day climate model runs from AMIP simulations to establish baseline sensitivity. Based upon these results, we assess the variability of the ASHRAE climate zones according to CMIP runs through 2100 using an ensemble analysis that classifies model output changes by

  1. Solar Powered Automobile Interior Climate Control System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howard, Richard T. (Inventor)

    2003-01-01

    There is provided a climate control system for a parked vehicle that includes a solar panel, thermostatic switch, fans, and thermoelectric coolers. The solar panel can serve as the sole source of electricity for the system. The system affords convenient installation and removal by including solar panels that are removably attached to the exterior of a vehicle. A connecting wire electrically connects the solar panels to a housing that is removably mounted to a partially opened window on the vehicle. The thermostatic switch, fans, and thermoelectric coolers are included within the housing. The thermostatic switch alternates the direction of the current flow through the thermoelectric coolers to selectively heat or cool the interior of the vehicle. The interior surface of the thermoelectric coolers are in contact with interior heat sinks that have air circulated across them by an interior fan. Similarly, the exterior surface of the thermoelectric coolers are in contact with exterior heat sinks that have air circulated across them by an exterior fan.

  2. The Community Climate System Model Version 4

    SciTech Connect

    Gent, Peter R.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Donner, Leo J.; Holland, Marika M.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Jayne, Steve R.; Lawrence, David M.; Neale, Richard; Rasch, Philip J.; Vertenstein, Mariana; Worley, Patrick; Yang, Zong-Liang; Zhang, Minghua

    2011-10-01

    The fourth version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) was recently completed and released to the climate community. This paper describes developments to all the CCSM components, and documents fully coupled pre-industrial control runs compared to the previous version, CCSM3. Using the standard atmosphere and land resolution of 1{sup o} results in the sea surface temperature biases in the major upwelling regions being comparable to the 1.4{sup o} resolution CCSM3. Two changes to the deep convection scheme in the atmosphere component result in the CCSM4 producing El Nino/Southern Oscillation variability with a much more realistic frequency distribution than the CCSM3, although the amplitude is too large compared to observations. They also improve the representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and the frequency distribution of tropical precipitation. A new overflow parameterization in the ocean component leads to an improved simulation of the deep ocean density structure, especially in the North Atlantic. Changes to the CCSM4 land component lead to a much improved annual cycle of water storage, especially in the tropics. The CCSM4 sea ice component uses much more realistic albedos than the CCSM3, and the Arctic sea ice concentration is improved in the CCSM4. An ensemble of 20th century simulations runs produce an excellent match to the observed September Arctic sea ice extent from 1979 to 2005. The CCSM4 ensemble mean increase in globally-averaged surface temperature between 1850 and 2005 is larger than the observed increase by about 0.4 C. This is consistent with the fact that the CCSM4 does not include a representation of the indirect effects of aerosols, although other factors may come into play. The CCSM4 still has significant biases, such as the mean precipitation distribution in the tropical Pacific Ocean, too much low cloud in the Arctic, and the latitudinal distributions of short-wave and long-wave cloud forcings.

  3. Lessons Learned from Eight Years' Experience of Actual Operation, and Future Prospects of JMA Earthquake Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoshiba, M.; Nishimae, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Since 2007, experiences of actual operation of EEW have been gained by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). During this period, we have learned lessons from many M6- and M7-class earthquakes, and the Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake. During the Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake, JMA system functioned well: it issued a warning message more than 15 s before strong ground shaking in the Tohoku district (relatively near distance from the epicenter). However, it was not perfect: in addition to the problem of large extent of fault rupture, some false warning messages were issued due to the confusion of the system because of simultaneous multiple aftershocks which occurred at the wide rupture area. To address the problems, JMA will introduce two new methods into the operational system this year to start their tests, aiming at practical operation within a couple of years. One is Integrated Particle Filter (IPF) method, which is an integrated algorithm of multiple hypocenter determination techniques with Bayesian estimation, in which amplitude information is also used for hypocenter determination. The other is Propagation of Local Undamped Motion (PLUM) method, in which warning message is issued when strong ground shaking is detected at nearby stations around the target site (e.g., within 30 km). Here, hypocenter and magnitude are not required in PLUM. Aiming at application for several years later, we are investigating a new approach, in which current wavefield is estimated in real time, and then future wavefield is predicted time evolutionally from the current situation using physics of wave propagation. Here, hypocenter and magnitude are not necessarily required, but real-time observation of ground shaking is necessary. JMA also plans to predict long period ground motion (up to 8 s) with the EEW system for earthquake damage mitigation in high-rise buildings. Its test will start using the operational system in the near future.

  4. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Jiang, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    We have developed a cloud-enabled web-service system that empowers physics-based, multi-variable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. We have developed a methodology to transform an existing science application code into a web service using a Python wrapper interface and Python web service frameworks. The web-service system, called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), currently supports (1) all the observational datasets from Obs4MIPs and a few ocean datasets from NOAA and Argo, which can serve as observation-based reference data for model evaluation, (2) many of CMIP5 model outputs covering a broad range of atmosphere, ocean, and land variables from the CMIP5 specific historical runs and AMIP runs, and (3) ECMWF reanalysis outputs for several environmental variables in order to supplement observational datasets. Analysis capabilities currently supported by CMDA are (1) the calculation of annual and seasonal means of physical variables, (2) the calculation of time evolution of the means in any specified geographical region, (3) the calculation of correlation between two variables, (4) the calculation of difference between two variables, and (5) the conditional sampling of one physical variable with respect to another variable. A web user interface is chosen for CMDA because it not only lowers the learning curve and removes the adoption barrier of the tool but also enables instantaneous use, avoiding the hassle of local software installation and environment incompatibility. CMDA will be used as an educational tool for the summer school organized by JPL's Center for Climate Science in 2014. In order to support 30+ simultaneous users during the school, we have deployed CMDA to the Amazon cloud environment. The cloud-enabled CMDA will provide each student with a virtual machine while the user interaction with the system will remain the same

  5. The use of the information highway to explore climate variability with the Global Climate Perspectives System (GCPS)

    SciTech Connect

    Baker, C.B.; Brinegar, D.E.

    1996-12-31

    Current concerns over global and regional climate change fluctuations require development of a system that is capable of answering inquiries about the state of the climate from many sectors of society. Often however, when the general public is confronted with studies concerning climate change the results are presented as {open_quotes}global{close_quotes} averages. These averages can mask important regional changes which are {open_quotes}key{close_quotes} to understanding the climate system. The Global Climate Perspectives System (GCPS) system is being designed to examine regional to global scale climate changes by using station and gridded climate data.

  6. Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; ,

    2006-01-01

    The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  7. The Physics of a Volcanic System: What is the Actual Role Played by Tectonic Setting in Controlling Volcanic Activity?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Canon-Tapia, E.

    2005-12-01

    Modern text-books commonly explain volcanic activity as a direct consequence of plate tectonics, overlooking the different scales characteristic of both types of processes. By acknowledging such differences, however, it is possible to envisage a model of a volcanic system that is based in the same principles of hydrostatics established by Blaise Pascal over 300 yrs ago. Such principles allow us to estimate the local conditions required for the occurrence of volcanism at a given location highlighting the importance of the rock strength and the density difference between melt and its surroundings. This model shows that the minimum thickness of the zone of partial melting in the mantle (or seismically defined Low Velocity Zone) that is required to feed volcanic activity might range from 5 to over 100 km, but also that under certain circumstances a rock strength < 200 MPa may suffice to keep magma trapped at depth whereas in other cases a strength > 600 MPa will not suffice to stop magma ascent resulting in volcanic activity at the surface. Consequently, the model of volcanism developed here explains why is that a given LVZ may lead to volcanic activity in some places whereas a completely identical LVZ may not result in volcanic activity in a different location. Consequently, this model provides a general framework that allows us to better understand the actual role played by tectonic setting in controlling volcanism at a planetary scale.

  8. Pilot climate data system: User's guide for charts subsystem

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noll, C. E.

    1984-01-01

    The use of the Pilot Climate Data System's (PCDS) CHARTS Subsystem is described. This facility is an interactive software system for the graphical production and enhancement of text and viewgraph displays.

  9. A National Program for Analysis of the Climate System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, Siegfried; Arkin, Phil; Kalnay, Eugenia; Laver, James; Trenberth, Kevin

    2002-01-01

    Perhaps the single greatest roadblock to fundamental advances in our understanding of climate variability and climate change is the lack of robust and unbiased long-term global observations of the climate system. Such observations are critical for the identification and diagnosis of climate variations, and provide the constraints necessary for developing and validating climate models. The first generation of reanalysis efforts, by using fixed analysis systems, eliminated the artificial climate signals that occurred in analyses generated at the operational numerical weather prediction centers. These datasets are now widely used by the scientific community in a variety of applications including atmosphere-ocean interactions, seasonal prediction, climate monitoring, the hydrological cycle, and a host of regional and other diagnostic studies. These reanalyses, however, had problems that made them sub-optimal or even unusable for some applications. Perhaps the most serious problem for climate applications was that, while the assimilation system remained fixed, changes in the observing systems did produce spurious changes in the perceived climate. The first generation reanalysis products also exposed problems with physical consistency of the products and the accurate representation of physical processes in the climate system. Examples are bias in the estimates of ocean surface fluxes, and inadequate representation of polar hydrology. In this talk, I will describe some initial plans for a national program on reananlysis. The program is envisioned to be part of an on-going activity to maintain, improve, and reprocess our record of climate observations. I will discuss various issues affecting the quality of reanalyses, with a special focus on those relevant to the ocean.

  10. Transitivity of the climate-vegetation system in a warm climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Port, U.; Claussen, M.

    2015-11-01

    To date, the transitivity of the global system has been analysed for late Quaternary (glacial, interglacial, and present-day) climate. Here, we extend this analysis to a warm, almost ice-free climate with a different configuration of continents. We use the Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology to analyse the stability of the climate system under early Eocene and pre-industrial conditions. We initialize the simulations by prescribing either dense forests or bare deserts on all continents. Starting with desert continents, an extended desert remains in central Asia in the early Eocene climate. Starting with dense forest coverage, the Asian desert is much smaller, while coastal deserts develop in the Americas which appear to be larger than in the simulations with initially bare continents. These differences can be attributed to differences in the large-scale tropical circulation. With initially forested continents, a stronger dipole in the 200 hPa velocity potential develops than in the simulation with initially bare continents. This difference prevails when vegetation is allowed to adjust to and interact with climate. Further simulations with initial surface conditions that differ in the region of the Asian desert only indicate that local feedback processes are less important in the development of multiple states. In the interglacial, pre-industrial climate, multiple states develop only in the Sahel region. There, local climate-vegetation interaction seems to dominate.

  11. A Systems Perspective on Responses to Climate Change

    EPA Science Inventory

    The science of climate change integrates many scientific fields to explain and predict the complex effects of greenhouse gas concentrations on the planet’s energy balance, weather patterns, and ecosystems as well as economic and social systems. A changing climate requires respons...

  12. Organizational Climate, Services, and Outcomes in Child Welfare Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glisson, Charles; Green, Philip

    2011-01-01

    Objective: This study examines the association of organizational climate, casework services, and youth outcomes in child welfare systems. Building on preliminary findings linking organizational climate to youth outcomes over a 3-year follow-up period, the current study extends the follow-up period to 7 years and tests main, moderating and…

  13. Gauging the System: Trends in School Climate Measurement and Intervention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Malley, Meagan; Katz, Kristin; Renshaw, Tyler L.; Furlong, Michael J.

    2011-01-01

    Researchers and educators are giving increasing scrutiny to systems-level constructs that contribute to safe, supportive, and effective schools, including school climate. School climate is a multifaceted construct that is commonly conceptualized as school community members' subjective experiences of the structural and contextual elements of a…

  14. Applying "Climate" system to teaching basic climatology and raising public awareness of climate change issues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gordova, Yulia; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Gordov, Evgeny

    2016-04-01

    While there is a strong demand for innovation in digital learning, available training programs in the environmental sciences have no time to adapt to rapid changes in the domain content. A joint group of scientists and university teachers develops and implements an educational environment for new learning experiences in basics of climatic science and its applications. This so-called virtual learning laboratory "Climate" contains educational materials and interactive training courses developed to provide undergraduate and graduate students with profound understanding of changes in regional climate and environment. The main feature of this Laboratory is that students perform their computational tasks on climate modeling and evaluation and assessment of climate change using the typical tools of the "Climate" information-computational system, which are usually used by real-life practitioners performing such kind of research. Students have an opportunity to perform computational laboratory works using information-computational tools of the system and improve skills of their usage simultaneously with mastering the subject. We did not create an artificial learning environment to pass the trainings. On the contrary, the main purpose of association of the educational block and computational information system was to familiarize students with the real existing technologies for monitoring and analysis of data on the state of the climate. Trainings are based on technologies and procedures which are typical for Earth system sciences. Educational courses are designed to permit students to conduct their own investigations of ongoing and future climate changes in a manner that is essentially identical to the techniques used by national and international climate research organizations. All trainings are supported by lectures, devoted to the basic aspects of modern climatology, including analysis of current climate change and its possible impacts ensuring effective links between

  15. Fennec - The Saharan Climate System: Project Overview

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Washington, Richard; Flamant, Cyrille; Parker, Doug; Marsham, Marsham; McQuaid, Jim; Brindley, Helen; Todd, Martin; Highwood, Ellie; Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre; Kocha, Cecile; Bechir, Mohamed; Saci, Azzedine

    2013-04-01

    The central Sahara forms an important part of the global climate system. During the northern summer months, the Saharan Heat Low (SHL), caused by intense solar heating, develops over a huge, largely uninhabited expanse of northern Mali, southern Algeria and eastern Mauritania. Dry convection through more than 5000m of the atmosphere, is routine in what is thought to be the deepest such layer on the planet. The SHL also co-locates with the largest loadings of dust anywhere in the Earth's atmosphere, making for a complex yet crucial component of WAM. Much of what is known about the SHL derives from numerical models rather than observations although it is widely accepted that such models show significant systematic errors over the Sahara desert manifested as differences in radiation reaching and leaving the surface, surface temperature, winds, dust and in representation of the boundary layer. In an effort to address the observational deficit in the region, as well as to improve model performance, the Fennec project is a large scale, multi-platform, extended duration observational campaign in the Saharan Heat Low (SHL) region. During the summers of 2011and 2012 a major campaign set about addressing the data deficiency of this important region. The campaign, which involved many more people than are indicated by the authorship of this abstract, featured the use of the instrumented BAe-146 and Falcon aircraft as well as supersite ground-stations both Algeria and Mauritania. The purpose of this overview is to describe project aims, institutional involvement and key elements of the observational campaign, particularly as it relates to the effort to understand dust over the region.

  16. Climate and Soil Interactions in the Context of Climate, Water, Ecosystems and Food Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hatfield, J.

    2015-12-01

    Soil as source of ecosystem services is a major component of climate resilience. Two of the critical ecosystem services derived from soil are water and nutrient cycling. High quality soils improve the capacity to absorb and retain precipitation leading to enhanced water availability to plants which increases climate resilience. The trend towards increasing variability in precipitation requires that the soil be capable of maintaining infiltration rates under extreme precipitation events. Climate resilience will occur when crop productivity is stabilized under more variable climate regimes and dependent upon having adequate soil water supplies to each crop. There is a direct relationship between soil quality and crop productivity and as the soil resource is degraded there is a greater gap between attainable and actual productivity of crop. As the soil is improved there is enhanced nutrient cycling which in turn increases nutrient availability to the crop and food security. Soil becomes the foundation of sustainable ecosystems and enhancing the quality of soil will have a benefit to food and water resources. Improving the soil will benefit humankind through multiple impacts on water, food, and ecosystems.

  17. A personal perspective on modelling the climate system

    PubMed Central

    Palmer, T. N.

    2016-01-01

    Given their increasing relevance for society, I suggest that the climate science community itself does not treat the development of error-free ab initio models of the climate system with sufficient urgency. With increasing levels of difficulty, I discuss a number of proposals for speeding up such development. Firstly, I believe that climate science should make better use of the pool of post-PhD talent in mathematics and physics, for developing next-generation climate models. Secondly, I believe there is more scope for the development of modelling systems which link weather and climate prediction more seamlessly. Finally, here in Europe, I call for a new European Programme on Extreme Computing and Climate to advance our ability to simulate climate extremes, and understand the drivers of such extremes. A key goal for such a programme is the development of a 1 km global climate system model to run on the first exascale supercomputers in the early 2020s. PMID:27274686

  18. Rectification and precession signals in the climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huybers, P.; Wunsch, C.

    2003-10-01

    Precession of the equinoxes has no effect on the mean annual insolation, but does modulate the amplitude of the seasonal cycle. In a linear climate system, there would be no energy near the 21,000 year precession period. It is only when a non-linear mechanism rectifies the seasonal modulation that precession-period variability appears. Such rectification can arise from physical processes within the climate system, for example a dependence of ice cover only on summer maximum insolation. The possibility exists, however, that the seasonality inherent in many climate proxies will produce precession-period variability in the records independent of any precession-period variability in the climate. One must distinguish this instrumental effect from true climate responses. Careful examination of regions without seasonal cycles, for example the abyssal ocean, and the use of proxies with different seasonal responses, might permit separation of physical from instrumental effects.

  19. An overview of BCC climate system model development and application for climate change studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Tongwen; Song, Lianchun; Li, Weiping; Wang, Zaizhi; Zhang, Hua; Xin, Xiaoge; Zhang, Yanwu; Zhang, Li; Li, Jianglong; Wu, Fanghua; Liu, Yiming; Zhang, Fang; Shi, Xueli; Chu, Min; Zhang, Jie; Fang, Yongjie; Wang, Fang; Lu, Yixiong; Liu, Xiangwen; Wei, Min; Liu, Qianxia; Zhou, Wenyan; Dong, Min; Zhao, Qigeng; Ji, Jinjun; Li, Laurent; Zhou, Mingyu

    2014-02-01

    This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) and its four component models (atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice). Two recent versions are described: BCC_CSM1.1 with coarse resolution (approximately 2.8125°×2.8125°) and BCC_CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution (approximately 1.125°×1.125°). Both versions are fully coupled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation. Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed. Simulations using these two versions of the BCC_CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase five (CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate projections. Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1(m) are presented and validated, with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales. Simulations of climate during the last millennium and projections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed. Both BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models. Preliminary analyses indicate that the higher resolution in BCC_CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC_CSM1.1, particularly on regional scales.

  20. The Earth's climate as a dynamical system

    SciTech Connect

    Foster, I.; Kaper, H.: Kwong, M.K.

    1992-10-01

    This report constitutes the proceedings of a two-day workshop on climate models which was held at Argonne National Laboratory, September 25 and 26, 1992. It contains the abstracts of the presentations and copies of the overhead transparencies used by the speakers.

  1. DataStreme Earth's Climate System: Building a Climate Literate Society through Effective Partnerships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brey, J. A.; Geer, I. W.; Weinbeck, R. S.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    Effective partnerships are key to increasing climate and overall environmental literacy. Financial support from NSF, NASA, and NOAA has allowed the American Meteorological Society (AMS) to offer DataStreme courses for almost 20 years. DataStreme Atmosphere, Ocean, and Earth's Climate System (ECS) are offered each fall and spring semester by Local Implementation Teams (LITs) across the country in coordination with AMS Education Program scientists and educators who develop instructional materials, provide logistical support to the LITs, and administer the project. A long-standing partnership with State University of New York's The College at Brockport gives teachers the opportunity to receive 3 tuition-free graduate credits upon successful completion of each DataStreme course and construction of a Plan of Action for educational peer-training. DataStreme ECS investigates the fundamental science of Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. The course provides participants with the knowledge to make informed climate decisions. In fact, according to a recent three-year study conducted by AMS, 98% of DataStreme ECS participants reported an increase in environmental literacy as a result of the course. DataStreme Atmosphere, Ocean, and ECS content has been improved because of AMS partnerships with NOAA and NASA. Specifically, hundreds of NASA and NOAA scientists and faculty from numerous institutions both domestic and abroad have contributed and reviewed DataStreme ECS content. Additional collaborations with Consortium for Ocean Leadership and the U.S. Ice Drilling Program greatly improved the course's paleoclimate content. Looking ahead, the Climate Resilience Toolkit from NOAA's Climate Program Office will further bolster the course this fall. These partnerships have resulted in a powerful, content-rich climate science course for K-12 teachers, building the foundation to a climate literate society.

  2. Urban Climate Map System for Dutch spatial planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Chao; Spit, Tejo; Lenzholzer, Sanda; Yim, Hung Lam Steve; Heusinkveld, Bert; van Hove, Bert; Chen, Liang; Kupski, Sebastian; Burghardt, René; Katzschner, Lutz

    2012-08-01

    Facing climate change and global warming, outdoor climatic environment is an important consideration factor for planners and policy makers because improving it can greatly contribute to achieve citizen's thermal comfort and create a better urban living quality for adaptation. Thus, the climatic information must be assessed systematically and applied strategically into the planning process. This paper presents a tool named Urban Climate Map System (UCMS) that has proven capable of helping compact cities to incorporate climate effects in planning processes in a systematic way. UCMS is developed and presented in a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform in which the lessons learned and experience gained from interdisciplinary studies can be included. The methodology of UCMS of compact cities, the construction procedure, and the basic input factors - including the natural climate resources and planning data - are described. Some literatures that shed light on the applicability of UMCS are reported. The Municipality of Arnhem is one of Dutch compact urban areas and still under fast urban development and urban renewal. There is an urgent need for local planners and policy makers to protect local climate and open landscape resources and make climate change adaptation in urban construction. Thus, Arnhem is chosen to carry out a case study of UCMS. Although it is the first work of Urban Climatic Mapping in The Netherlands, it serves as a useful climatic information platform to local planners and policy makers for their daily on-going works. We attempt to use a quick method to collect available climatic and planning data and create an information platform for planning use. It relies mostly on literature and theoretical understanding that has been well practiced elsewhere. The effort here is to synergize the established understanding for a case at hand and demonstrate how useful guidance can still be made for planners and policy makers.

  3. Residential Dehumidification Systems Research for Hot-Humid Climates

    SciTech Connect

    2005-02-01

    Twenty homes were tested and monitored in the hot-humid climate of Houston, Texas, to evaluate the humidity control performance and operating cost of six integrated dehumidification and ventilation systems.

  4. Pragmatic validity of the combined model of expert system for assessment and analysis of the actual quality overall structure of basketball players.

    PubMed

    Trninić, S; Dizdar, D; Dezman, B

    2002-06-01

    The authors presumed that it was possible to replace certain criteria of the expert system aimed at evaluating actual quality of basketball players, proposed by Trninić et al., with the corresponding indicators of situation-related efficiency (official statistics of the game). Hence, the aim of this study is to verify the potential of establishing such a combined model of expert system that would consist of both the evaluation criteria and certain number of objectively measurable aspects of actual quality (player's partial performance or playing efficiency) and to determine its pragmatic validity. To achieve the aim the sample comprised of 60 basketball players that were competing in the Croatian First Division League in the 1998/99 season was tested. The sample and their quality of play was described by the two different types of data: 1) the 13 situation-related efficiency data (FIBA statistics of the game) utilized to objectively assess performance or playing effectiveness of players, collected at 132 games played by 12 teams, and 2) the evaluation data, subjectively assessing actual quality of players, i.e. their perceived overall performance, collected at the end of the season from the 10 basketball trainers. On the basis of relatively high correlations within the 7 pairs of mutually equivalent variables (from 0.63 to 0.84) and the extremely high correlation (0.97) obtained between the perceived overall performance (actual quality), subjectively assessed with respect to the 19 criteria of the original expert evaluation system, and the overall performance (actual quality) assessed by the combined model (where the 8 evaluation criteria had been replaced by the 7 corresponding indicators ofplaying efficiency), it is feasible to consider the combined model of expert system as an acceptable tool for more objective and economical assessment of actual quality of basketball players.

  5. INTRODUCTION: Focus on Climate Engineering: Intentional Intervention in the Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2009-12-01

    Geoengineering techniques for countering climate change have been receiving much press recently as a `Plan B' if a global deal to tackle climate change is not agreed at the COP15 negotiations in Copenhagen this December. However, the field is controversial as the methods may have unforeseen consequences, potentially making temperatures rise in some regions or reducing rainfall, and many aspects remain under-researched. This focus issue of Environmental Research Letters is a collection of research articles, invited by David Keith, University of Calgary, and Ken Caldeira, Carnegie Institution, that present and evaluate different methods for engineering the Earth's climate. Not only do the letters in this issue highlight various methods of climate engineering but they also detail the arguments for and against climate engineering as a concept. Further reading Focus on Geoengineering at http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/subject/tag=geoengineering IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science is an open-access proceedings service available at www.iop.org/EJ/journal/ees Focus on Climate Engineering: Intentional Intervention in the Climate System Contents Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming David L Mitchell and William Finnegan Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change Andrew Ross and H Damon Matthews Researching geoengineering: should not or could not? Martin Bunzl Of mongooses and mitigation: ecological analogues to geoengineering H Damon Matthews and Sarah E Turner Toward ethical norms and institutions for climate engineering research David R Morrow, Robert E Kopp and Michael Oppenheimer On the possible use of geoengineering to moderate specific climate change impacts Michael C MacCracken The impact of geoengineering aerosols on stratospheric temperature and ozone P Heckendorn, D Weisenstein, S Fueglistaler, B P Luo, E Rozanov, M Schraner, L W Thomason and T Peter The fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a geoengineered

  6. Climate Change Impact Assessments for International Market Systems (CLIMARK)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winkler, J. A.; Andresen, J.; Black, J.; Bujdoso, G.; Chmielewski, F.; Kirschke, D.; Kurlus, R.; Liszewska, M.; Loveridge, S.; Niedzwiedz, T.; Nizalov, D.; Rothwell, N.; Tan, P.; Ustrnul, Z.; von Witzke, H.; Zavalloni, C.; Zhao, J.; Zhong, S.

    2012-12-01

    The vast majority of climate change impact assessments evaluate how local or regional systems and processes may be affected by a future climate. Alternative strategies that extend beyond the local or regional scale are needed when assessing the potential impacts of climate change on international market systems, including agricultural commodities. These industries have multiple production regions that are distributed worldwide and are likely to be differentially impacted by climate change. Furthermore, for many industries and market systems, especially those with long-term climate-dependent investments, temporal dynamics need to be incorporated into the assessment process, including changing patterns of international trade, consumption and production, and evolving adaptation strategies by industry stakeholder groups. A framework for conducting climate change assessments for international market systems, developed as part of the CLIMARK (Climate Change and International Markets) project is outlined, and progress toward applying the framework for an impact assessment for the international tart cherry industry is described. The tart cherry industry was selected for analysis in part because tart cherries are a perennial crop requiring long-term investments by the producer. Components of the project include the preparation of fine resolution climate scenarios, evaluation of phenological models for diverse production regions, the development of a yield model for tart cherry production, new methods for incorporating individual decision making and adaptation options into impact assessments, and modification of international trade models for use in impact studies. Innovative aspects of the project include linkages between model components and evaluation of the mega-uncertainty surrounding the assessment outcomes. Incorporation of spatial and temporal dynamics provides a more comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts and an assessment product of potentially greater

  7. Developing a National Climate Indicators System to Track Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A. C.; Arndt, D.; Chen, R. S.; Pouyat, R.; Anderson, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. Part of the vision, which is now under development, for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, Atmospheric Composition, Physical Climate Variability and Change, Sectors and Resources of Concern, and Adaptation and Mitigation Responses. This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at spatial

  8. Comments on Current Space Systems Observing the Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisk, L. A.

    2016-07-01

    The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), which was established in 1992, has been effective in specifying the observations needed for climate studies, and advocating that these observations be made. As a result, there are essential climate variables being observed, particularly from space, and these have formed the basis for our ever-improving models of how the Earth system functions and the human impact on it. We cannot conclude, however, that the current observing system in space is adequate. Climate change is accelerating, and we need to ensure that our observations capture, with completeness and with proper resolution and cadence, the most important changes. Perhaps of most significance, we need to use observations from space to guide the mitigation and adaptation strategies on which at last our civilization seems prepared to embark. And we need to use our observations to educate particularly policy makers on the reality of climate change, so that none deny the need to act. COSPAR is determined to play its part in highlighting the need to strengthen the climate observing system and notably its research component. This is being accomplished through events like the present roundtable, through the work of its Scientific Commission A, its Task Group on GEO (where COSPAR is serving as a member of its Program Board), and by promoting among space agencies and policy-makers the recently released scientific roadmap on Integrated Earth System Science for the period 2016-2025.

  9. Discrepancy in climatic zoning of the current soil productivity evaluation system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chuchma, Filip; Středová, Hana

    2015-12-01

    Pedologic-ecological estimation in the Czech Republic (Central Europe) means determination of land agronomic productivity and its economical pricing and is expressed as a five position numeral code and mapped as iso-lines. The first position of the code is the climatic region representing approximately the same conditions for agricultural plant growth and development. This climatic regionalization was based on the climatic data from 1901-1950. Currently, there is the need to update their existing zoning due to the technological progress of measurement and development of climate models including estimation of future climate. The aim of the paper is (i) to apply actual climatic data to climatic regionalization and (ii) to estimate what climatic conditions are relevant for actually valid climatic regions. The original methodology currently enables us to unequivocally classify only 17% of the entire territory of the Czech Republic (and 18% of Czech agricultural land). A substantial part of the territory does not fit neatly into individual climatic regions. Subsequently the actually valid ranges of climatic characteristics of individual climatic regions were determined. The GIS layers of individual climatic variables computed with data from 1961-2010 were one by one covered by GIS layers of individual climatic regions based on data from 1901-1950. Interval ranges of climatic region variables determined in this way are valid for the period 1961-2010. The upper limit of air temperature sum above 10 °C and annual air temperature in most of the climatic regions was significantly shifted up in 1961-2010. An increase in precipitation is noticeable in wet climatic regions. Moisture certainty in vegetation season and probability of dry vegetation are the most problematic in terms of Estimated Pedologic-Ecological Units (EPEU) climatic zoning. This should be taken into account when fixing the official soil price.

  10. Investigations of the Climate System Response to Climate Engineering in a Hierarchy of Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCusker, Kelly E.

    Global warming due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases is causing negative impacts on diverse ecological and human systems around the globe, and these impacts are projected to worsen as climate continues to warm. In the absence of meaningful greenhouse gas emissions reductions, new strategies have been proposed to engineer the climate, with the aim of preventing further warming and avoiding associated climate impacts. We investigate one such strategy here, falling under the umbrella of `solar radiation management', in which sulfate aerosols are injected into the stratosphere. We use a global climate model with a coupled mixed-layer depth ocean and with a fully-coupled ocean general circulation model to simulate the stabilization of climate by balancing increasing carbon dioxide with increasing stratospheric sulfate concentrations. We evaluate whether or not severe climate impacts, such as melting Arctic sea ice, tropical crop failure, or destabilization of the West Antarctic ice sheet, could be avoided. We find that while tropical climate emergencies might be avoided by use of stratospheric aerosol injections, avoiding polar emergencies cannot be guaranteed due to large residual climate changes in those regions, which are in part due to residual atmospheric circulation anomalies. We also find that the inclusion of a fully-coupled ocean is important for determining the regional climate response because of its dynamical feedbacks. The efficacy of stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections, and solar radiation management more generally, depends on its ability to be maintained indefinitely, without interruption from a variety of possible sources, such as technological failure, a breakdown in global cooperation, lack of funding, or negative unintended consequences. We next consider the scenario in which stratospheric sulfate injections are abruptly terminated after a multi- decadal period of implementation while greenhouse gas emissions have continued unabated

  11. Developing a System of National Climate Assessment Indicators to Track Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janetos, A. C.; Kenney, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Arndt, D.

    2012-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/). Part of the vision for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks Atmospheric Composition Physical Climate Variability and Change Sectors and Resources of Concern Adaptation and Mitigation Responses This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at

  12. Seasonalizing mountain system recharge in semi-arid basins-climate change impacts.

    PubMed

    Ajami, Hoori; Meixner, Thomas; Dominguez, Francina; Hogan, James; Maddock, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Climate variability and change impact groundwater resources by altering recharge rates. In semi-arid Basin and Range systems, this impact is likely to be most pronounced in mountain system recharge (MSR), a process which constitutes a significant component of recharge in these basins. Despite its importance, the physical processes that control MSR have not been fully investigated because of limited observations and the complexity of recharge processes in mountainous catchments. As a result, empirical equations, that provide a basin-wide estimate of mean annual recharge using mean annual precipitation, are often used to estimate MSR. Here North American Regional Reanalysis data are used to develop seasonal recharge estimates using ratios of seasonal (winter vs. summer) precipitation to seasonal actual or potential evapotranspiration. These seasonal recharge estimates compared favorably to seasonal MSR estimates using the fraction of winter vs. summer recharge determined from isotopic data in the Upper San Pedro River Basin, Arizona. Development of hydrologically based seasonal ratios enhanced seasonal recharge predictions and notably allows evaluation of MSR response to changes in seasonal precipitation and temperature because of climate variability and change using Global Climate Model (GCM) climate projections. Results show that prospective variability in MSR depends on GCM precipitation predictions and on higher temperature. Lower seasonal MSR rates projected for 2050-2099 are associated with decreases in summer precipitation and increases in winter temperature. Uncertainty in seasonal MSR predictions arises from the potential evapotranspiration estimation method, the GCM downscaling technique and the exclusion of snowmelt processes.

  13. Stochastic Resonance and Global Synchronization In The Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ganopolski, A.; Rahmstorf, S.; Calov, R.

    Paleoclimate data present strong evidences that during glacial age the climate sys- tem unlike recent 10,000 yr was characterized by strong variability on millennial time scale. Moreover, two the most pronounced types of variability, Dansgaard-Oeshger (D/O) oscillations and Heinrich events, were closely locked in time and the latter re- veal clear 1500 years pacing. The goal of this paper is to demonstrate that peculiar timing and synchronism of different types of abrupt climate events during glacial age is a consequence of internal instability of the components of the climate system. In Ganopolski and Rahmstorf (2001) we proposed an explanation of D/O oscillations as a temporary state transitions triggered by a small-amplitude freshwater forcing in the high latitude North Atlantic, which causes rapid jumps of the thermohaline ocean cir- culation from the stable (cold) mode to the unstable (warm) mode. Such an excitable system is prone to stochastic resonance. In Ganopolski and Rahmstorf (2002) we have shown that when the climate system is driven by random noise of realistic amplitude, combined with a very weak climate cycle of 1500 yr, D/O oscillations result which are similar in time evolution and spatial patterns to those recorded in the Greenland ice core. In particularly, simulated warm events have preferred interspike intervals of 1500, 3000 and 4500 yr. Ice sheets alike thermohaline ocean circulation can be de- scribed as an excitable system. In Calov et al. (2002), using coupled climate-ice sheet mode, we simulated large-scale oscillations of the Laurentide Ice Sheet resembling Heinrich events in geographical pattern, amplitude and temporal evolution. Although, a typical period of simulated Heinrich events is controlled by climate forcing and in- ternal ice sheet dynamics, the precise timing of individual Heinrich events is locked to small-scale instabilities in the area of Hudson Strait. We speculate that in the real climate system such perturbations can

  14. A Web-based Geovisual Analytical System for Climate Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, M.; Li, J.; Yang, C.; Schmidt, G. A.; Bambacus, M.; Cahalan, R.; Huang, Q.; Xu, C.; Noble, E.

    2012-12-01

    Climate studies involve petabytes of spatiotemporal datasets that are produced and archived at distributed computing resources. Scientists need an intuitive and convenient tool to explore the distributed spatiotemporal data. Geovisual analytical tools have the potential to provide such an intuitive and convenient method for scientists to access climate data, discover the relationships between various climate parameters, and communicate the results across different research communities. However, implementing a geovisual analytical tool for complex climate data in a distributed environment poses several challenges. This paper reports our efforts in developing a web-based geovisual analytical system to support the analysis of climate data generated by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) models. Using the ModelE developed by NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) as an example, we demonstrate that the system is able to 1) manage large volume datasets over the Internet, 2) visualize 3D/4D spatiotemporal data, 3) broker various spatiotemporal statistical analyses for climate research, and 4) support interactive data analysis and knowledge discovery. This research also provides an example of how to manage, disseminate, and analyze Big Data in the 21st century.

  15. The Community Climate System Model Project from an Interagency Perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Bader, D C; Bamzai, A; Fein, J; Patrinos, A; Leinen, M

    2005-06-16

    In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will publish its Fourth Assessment Report of the Scientific Basis of Climate Change (AR4). A significant portion of the AR4 will be the analysis of coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations of the climate of the past century as well as scenarios of future climates under prescribed emission scenarios. Modeling groups worldwide have contributed to AR4, including three from the U.S., the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) project, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Sciences, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). This collection of model results is providing a wealth of new information that will be used to examine the state of climate science, the potential impacts from climate changes, and the policy consequences that they imply. Our focus here is on the CCSM project. Although it is centered at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the CCSM version 3 (CCSM3) was designed, developed, and applied in a uniquely distributed fashion with participation by many institutions. This model has produced some of the most scientifically complete and highest resolution simulations of climate change to date, thanks to the teamwork of many scientists and software engineers. Their contributions will become obvious as a steady stream of peer-reviewed publications appears in the scientific literature. Less obvious, however, is the largely hidden, unprecedented level of interagency cooperation and multi-institutional coordination that provided the direction and resources necessary to make the CCSM project successful. Contrary to the widely-held opinion that the US climate research effort in general, and the climate modeling effort in particular, is fragmented and disorganized (NRC 1998, 2001), the success of the CCSM project demonstrates that a uniquely US approach to model

  16. Climate information for public health: the role of the IRI climate data library in an integrated knowledge system.

    PubMed

    del Corral, John; Blumenthal, M Benno; Mantilla, Gilma; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J; Thomson, Madeleine C

    2012-09-01

    Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact of climate variability and change on health outcomes. Protecting public health from the vagaries of climate requires new working relationships between the public health sector and the providers of climate data and information. The Climate Information for Public Health Action initiative at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is designed to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use and demand appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of the climate. Significant challenges to building the capacity of health professionals to use climate information in research and decision-making include the difficulties experienced by many in accessing relevant and timely quality controlled data and information in formats that can be readily incorporated into specific analysis with other data sources. We present here the capacities of the IRI climate data library and show how we have used it to build an integrated knowledge system in the support of the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive decision-making with respect to health. Initiated as an aid facilitating exploratory data analysis for climate scientists, the IRI climate data library has emerged as a powerful tool for interdisciplinary researchers focused on topics related to climate impacts on society, including health.

  17. Earth System Science Education Centered on Natural Climate Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramirez, P. C.; Ladochy, S.; Patzert, W. C.; Willis, J. K.

    2009-12-01

    Several new courses and many educational activities related to climate change are available to teachers and students of all grade levels. However, not all new discoveries in climate research have reached the science education community. In particular, effective learning tools explaining natural climate change are scarce. For example, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a main cause of natural climate variability spanning decades. While most educators are familiar with the shorter-temporal events impacting climate, El Niño and La Niña, very little has trickled into the climate change curriculum on the PDO. We have developed two online educational modules, using an Earth system science approach, on the PDO and its role in climate change and variability. The first concentrates on the discovery of the PDO through records of salmon catch in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. We present the connection between salmon abundance in the North Pacific to changing sea surface temperature patterns associated with the PDO. The connection between sea surface temperatures and salmon abundance led to the discovery of the PDO. Our activity also lets students explore the role of salmon in the economy and culture of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska and the environmental requirements for salmon survival. The second module is based on the climate of southern California and how changes in the Pacific Ocean , such as the PDO and ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), influence regional climate variability. PDO and ENSO signals are evident in the long-term temperature and precipitation record of southern California. Students are guided in the module to discover the relationships between Pacific Ocean conditions and southern California climate variability. The module also provides information establishing the relationship between climate change and variability and the state's water, energy, agriculture, wildfires and forestry, air quality and health issues. Both modules will be

  18. Modeling lakes and reservoirs in the climate system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    MacKay, M.D.; Neale, P.J.; Arp, C.D.; De Senerpont Domis, L. N.; Fang, X.; Gal, G.; Jo, K.D.; Kirillin, G.; Lenters, J.D.; Litchman, E.; MacIntyre, S.; Marsh, P.; Melack, J.; Mooij, W.M.; Peeters, F.; Quesada, A.; Schladow, S.G.; Schmid, M.; Spence, C.; Stokes, S.L.

    2009-01-01

    Modeling studies examining the effect of lakes on regional and global climate, as well as studies on the influence of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, are surveyed. Fully coupled atmosphere-land surface-lake climate models that could be used for both of these types of study simultaneously do not presently exist, though there are many applications that would benefit from such models. It is argued here that current understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in freshwater systems is sufficient to begin to construct such models, and a path forward is proposed. The largest impediment to fully representing lakes in the climate system lies in the handling of lakes that are too small to be explicitly resolved by the climate model, and that make up the majority of the lake-covered area at the resolutions currently used by global and regional climate models. Ongoing development within the hydrological sciences community and continual improvements in model resolution should help ameliorate this issue.

  19. Climate Change and Malaria in Canada: A Systems Approach

    PubMed Central

    Berrang-Ford, L.; MacLean, J. D.; Gyorkos, Theresa W.; Ford, J. D.; Ogden, N. H.

    2009-01-01

    This article examines the potential for changes in imported and autochthonous malaria incidence in Canada as a consequence of climate change. Drawing on a systems framework, we qualitatively characterize and assess the potential direct and indirect impact of climate change on malaria in Canada within the context of other concurrent ecological and social trends. Competent malaria vectors currently exist in southern Canada, including within this range several major urban centres, and conditions here have historically supported endemic malaria transmission. Climate change will increase the occurrence of temperature conditions suitable for malaria transmission in Canada, which, combined with trends in international travel, immigration, drug resistance, and inexperience in both clinical and laboratory diagnosis, may increase malaria incidence in Canada and permit sporadic autochthonous cases. This conclusion challenges the general assumption of negligible malaria risk in Canada with climate change. PMID:19277107

  20. Rainwater catchment system design using simulated future climate data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wallace, Corey D.; Bailey, Ryan T.; Arabi, Mazdak

    2015-10-01

    Rainwater harvesting techniques are used worldwide to augment potable water supply, provide water for small-scale irrigation practices, increase rainwater-use efficiency for sustained crop growth in arid and semi-arid regions, decrease urban stormwater flow volumes, and in general to relieve dependency on urban water resources cycles. A number of methods have been established in recent years to estimate reliability of rainwater catchment systems (RWCS) and thereby properly size the components (roof catchment area, storage tank size) of the system for a given climatic region. These methods typically use historical or stochastically-generated rainfall patterns to quantify system performance and optimally size the system, with the latter accounting for possible rainfall scenarios based on statistical relationships of historical rainfall patterns. To design RWCS systems that can sustainably meet water demand under future climate conditions, this paper introduces a method that employs climatic data from general circulation models (GCMs) to develop a suite of catchment area vs. storage size design curves that capture uncertainty in future climate scenarios. Monthly rainfall data for the 2010-2050 time period is statistically downscaled to daily values using a Markov chain algorithm, with results used only from GCMs that yield rainfall patterns that are statistically consistent with historical rainfall patterns. The process is demonstrated through application to two climatic regions of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) in the western Pacific, wherein the majority of the population relies on rainwater harvesting for potable water supply. Through the use of design curves, communities can provide household RWCS that achieve a certain degree of storage reliability. The method described herein can be applied generally to any geographic region. It can be used to first, assess the future performance of existing household systems; and second, to design or modify systems

  1. State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayewski, P. A.; Meredith, M. P.; Summerhayes, C. P.; Turner, J.; Worby, A.; Barrett, P. J.; Casassa, G.; Bertler, N. A. N.; Bracegirdle, T.; Naveira Garabato, A. C.; Bromwich, D.; Campbell, H.; Hamilton, G. S.; Lyons, W. B.; Maasch, K. A.; Aoki, S.; Xiao, C.; van Ommen, Tas

    2009-03-01

    This paper reviews developments in our understanding of the state of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate and its relation to the global climate system over the last few millennia. Climate over this and earlier periods has not been stable, as evidenced by the occurrence of abrupt changes in atmospheric circulation and temperature recorded in Antarctic ice core proxies for past climate. Two of the most prominent abrupt climate change events are characterized by intensification of the circumpolar westerlies (also known as the Southern Annular Mode) between ˜6000 and 5000 years ago and since 1200-1000 years ago. Following the last of these is a period of major trans-Antarctic reorganization of atmospheric circulation and temperature between A.D. 1700 and 1850. The two earlier Antarctic abrupt climate change events appear linked to but predate by several centuries even more abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic, and the end of the more recent event is coincident with reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific. Improved understanding of such events and of the associations between abrupt climate change events recorded in both hemispheres is critical to predicting the impact and timing of future abrupt climate change events potentially forced by anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Special attention is given to the climate of the past 200 years, which was recorded by a network of recently available shallow firn cores, and to that of the past 50 years, which was monitored by the continuous instrumental record. Significant regional climate changes have taken place in the Antarctic during the past 50 years. Atmospheric temperatures have increased markedly over the Antarctic Peninsula, linked to nearby ocean warming and intensification of the circumpolar westerlies. Glaciers are retreating on the peninsula, in Patagonia, on the sub-Antarctic islands, and in West Antarctica adjacent to the peninsula. The penetration of marine

  2. Continental river routing for fully coupled climate system models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graham, Stephen Thomas

    Rivers have only recently been recognized as important components of, and have begun to appear in climate models. The inclusion of rivers and river transport algorithms completes the global water cycle, and allows additional applications for these models, (i.e. nutrient transport for biogeochemical modeling). In this study, several steps are taken toward the inclusion of rivers in climate models. The first steps were to develop global data layers of rivers and associated hydrological parameters. The river networks add a new dimension to the land surface component of these models: horizontal transport, typically neglected in global models. These data are necessary for horizontal transport of water and its associated heat, salinity, and nutrients, and is applicable to any global modeling effort. Surface hydrological conditions, (i.e. soil moisture and lakes), have been demonstrated as important factors in determining climatic conditions in global climate models. The inland surface waters affect climatic variables because of their difference from vegetated and bare soil surfaces. To demonstrate this, a second step in this research uses these data in a variety of sensitivity experiments to determine their impact on climate. These experiments investigated the effect of the additional surface water associated with rivers and a new lake coverage on climate. The inclusion of increased surface water alters circulation patterns across the globe, with larger effects in the winter for each hemisphere. The increased surface water coverage increased globally averaged air temperature, latent heat, specific humidity, cloud cover, and precipitation. These changes bring simulated global temperatures closer to observations. A third step in this research was to use the continental drainage basins data to deliver the runoff to the proper coastlines in a climate simulation, which involved interactions between all components of the Earth's climate system as they feedback and produce

  3. Climate observing system studies: An element of the NASA Climate Research Program: Workshop report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1980-01-01

    Plans for NASA's efforts in climatology were discussed. Targets for a comprehensive observing system for the early 1990's were considered. A program to provide useful data in the near and mid-term, and a program to provide for a feasibility assessment of instruments and methods for the development of a long-term system were discussed. Climate parameters that cannot be measured from space were identified. Long-term calibration, intercomparison, standards, and ground truth were discussed.

  4. Guiding climate change adaptation within vulnerable natural resource management systems.

    PubMed

    Bardsley, Douglas K; Sweeney, Susan M

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

  5. Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bardsley, Douglas K.; Sweeney, Susan M.

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

  6. Effects of changes in climate on landscape and regional processes, and feedbacks to the climate system.

    PubMed

    Callaghan, Terry V; Björn, Lars Olof; Chernov, Yuri; Chapin, Terry; Christensen, Torben R; Huntley, Brian; Ims, Rolf A; Johansson, Margareta; Jolly, Dyanna; Jonasson, Sven; Matveyeva, Nadya; Panikov, Nicolai; Oechel, Walter; Shaver, Gus; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Sitch, Stephen

    2004-11-01

    Biological and physical processes in the Arctic system operate at various temporal and spatial scales to impact large-scale feedbacks and interactions with the earth system. There are four main potential feedback mechanisms between the impacts of climate change on the Arctic and the global climate system: albedo, greenhouse gas emissions or uptake by ecosystems, greenhouse gas emissions from methane hydrates, and increased freshwater fluxes that could affect the thermohaline circulation. All these feedbacks are controlled to some extent by changes in ecosystem distribution and character and particularly by large-scale movement of vegetation zones. Indications from a few, full annual measurements of CO2 fluxes are that currently the source areas exceed sink areas in geographical distribution. The little available information on CH4 sources indicates that emissions at the landscape level are of great importance for the total greenhouse balance of the circumpolar North. Energy and water balances of Arctic landscapes are also important feedback mechanisms in a changing climate. Increasing density and spatial expansion of vegetation will cause a lowering of the albedo and more energy to be absorbed on the ground. This effect is likely to exceed the negative feedback of increased C sequestration in greater primary productivity resulting from the displacements of areas of polar desert by tundra, and areas of tundra by forest. The degradation of permafrost has complex consequences for trace gas dynamics. In areas of discontinuous permafrost, warming, will lead to a complete loss of the permafrost. Depending on local hydrological conditions this may in turn lead to a wetting or drying of the environment with subsequent implications for greenhouse gas fluxes. Overall, the complex interactions between processes contributing to feedbacks, variability over time and space in these processes, and insufficient data have generated considerable uncertainties in estimating the net

  7. Effects of changes in climate on landscape and regional processes, and feedbacks to the climate system.

    PubMed

    Callaghan, Terry V; Björn, Lars Olof; Chernov, Yuri; Chapin, Terry; Christensen, Torben R; Huntley, Brian; Ims, Rolf A; Johansson, Margareta; Jolly, Dyanna; Jonasson, Sven; Matveyeva, Nadya; Panikov, Nicolai; Oechel, Walter; Shaver, Gus; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Sitch, Stephen

    2004-11-01

    Biological and physical processes in the Arctic system operate at various temporal and spatial scales to impact large-scale feedbacks and interactions with the earth system. There are four main potential feedback mechanisms between the impacts of climate change on the Arctic and the global climate system: albedo, greenhouse gas emissions or uptake by ecosystems, greenhouse gas emissions from methane hydrates, and increased freshwater fluxes that could affect the thermohaline circulation. All these feedbacks are controlled to some extent by changes in ecosystem distribution and character and particularly by large-scale movement of vegetation zones. Indications from a few, full annual measurements of CO2 fluxes are that currently the source areas exceed sink areas in geographical distribution. The little available information on CH4 sources indicates that emissions at the landscape level are of great importance for the total greenhouse balance of the circumpolar North. Energy and water balances of Arctic landscapes are also important feedback mechanisms in a changing climate. Increasing density and spatial expansion of vegetation will cause a lowering of the albedo and more energy to be absorbed on the ground. This effect is likely to exceed the negative feedback of increased C sequestration in greater primary productivity resulting from the displacements of areas of polar desert by tundra, and areas of tundra by forest. The degradation of permafrost has complex consequences for trace gas dynamics. In areas of discontinuous permafrost, warming, will lead to a complete loss of the permafrost. Depending on local hydrological conditions this may in turn lead to a wetting or drying of the environment with subsequent implications for greenhouse gas fluxes. Overall, the complex interactions between processes contributing to feedbacks, variability over time and space in these processes, and insufficient data have generated considerable uncertainties in estimating the net

  8. Systems in peril: Climate change, agriculture and biodiversity in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cocklin, Chris; Dibden, Jacqui

    2009-11-01

    This paper reflects on the interplay amongst three closely linked systems - climate, agriculture and biodiversity - in the Australian context. The advance of a European style of agriculture has imperilled Australian biodiversity. The loss and degradation of biodiversity has, in turn, had negative consequences for agriculture. Climate change is imposing new pressures on both agriculture and biodiversity. From a policy and management perspective, though, it is possible to envisage mitigation and adaptation responses that would alleviate pressures on all three systems (climate, agriculture, biodiversity). In this way, the paper seeks to make explicit the important connections between science and policy. The paper outlines the distinctive features of both biodiversity and agriculture in the Australian context. The discussion then addresses the impacts of agriculture on biodiversity, followed by an overview of how climate change is impacting on both of these systems. The final section of the paper offers some commentary on current policy and management strategies that are targeted at mitigating the loss of biodiversity and which may also have benefits in terms of climate change.

  9. Projected climate change impacts to the North Sea marine system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schrum, Corinna

    2015-04-01

    Future climate change impacts to the North Sea marine system are driven by a combination of changes induced by the globally forced oceanic boundary conditions and the regional atmospheric and terrestrial changes. We reviewed the recent progress and the projected future change of the North Sea marine system as part of the North Sea Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) and focussed on three major aspects, namely the change of (i) sea level, the (ii) hydrographic and circulation changes of the North Sea and the (iii) changes in lower trophic level dynamics, biogeochemistry and ocean acidification. In recent years more and more regional climate change assessments became available for the North Sea and new developments contributed important understanding on regional processes mediating climate change impacts in the North Sea. Important new knowledge on regional future sea level change was gained by improved understanding of processes contributing to global sea level rise during the last decade. Assessment of climate change impacts to hydrography, circulation and biogeochemistry has benefited from new and advanced downscaling methods. The large number of regional studies enables now a critical review of the current knowledge on climate change impacts on the North Sea and allows the identification of challenges, robust changes, uncertainties and specific recommendations for future research. The long term trends in the climate conditions are superposed on the natural modes of variability and separating these to give a clear anthropogenic climate change signal is one of the 'grand challenges' of climate change impact studies in marine regions and of particular relevance for North Sea. The impact of natural variability on future annual average steric sea level, sea surface temperature and ocean acidification is less dominant compared to the climate change signal and their projected changes for the North Sea, namely rising future sea level, increasing surface temperature and

  10. Impact of monitoring blood volume in the BD BACTEC™ FX blood culture system: virtual volume versus actual volume.

    PubMed

    Chang, Jeonghyun; Park, Jeong Su; Park, Sookja; Choi, Byeonghoo; Yoon, Nam Seop; Sung, Heungsup; Kim, Mi-Na

    2015-02-01

    The BACTEC™ FX (BD, USA) has been recently upgraded to measure virtual blood volume (VV) in batches of 25 PLUS Aerobic/F bottles. VVs were compared with manually measured actual volumes (AVs). The mean AV was larger in anaerobic bottles: 2.6±1.9mL in 2995 Aerobic/F bottles and 3.3±1.8mL in 3053 Lytic/10 Anaerobic/F bottles (P<0.001). The VV of Aerobic/F bottles was 2.4±1.4mL, and there was a significant correlation between the VVs and AVs of each department (P<0.001). The potential positivity in aerobic bottles increased 1.2-fold with a 1-mL increase in the AV (P<0.001). AV and VV were consistently less than adequate. Although the proportional effect of volume on positivity can be proven only with the AV, VVs are a reliable substitute for AVs to monitor the overall blood volumes and provide feedback to the individual departments or locations.

  11. Terrestrial Biosphere Dynamics in the Climate System: Past and Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Overpeck, J.; Whitlock, C.; Huntley, B.

    2002-12-01

    The paleoenvironmental record makes it clear that climate change as large as is likely to occur in the next two centuries will drive change in the terrestrial biosphere that is both large and difficult to predict, or plan for. Many species, communities and ecosystems could experience rates of climate change, and "destination climates" that are unprecedented in their time on earth. The paleorecord also makes it clear that a wide range of possible climate system behavior, such as decades-long droughts, increases in large storm and flood frequency, and rapid sea level rise, all occurred repeatedly in the past, and for poorly understood reasons. These types of events, if they were to reoccur in the future, could have especially devastating impacts on biodiversity, both because their timing and spatial extent cannot be anticipated, and because the biota's natural defenses have been compromised by land-use, reductions in genetic flexibility, pollution, excess water utilization, invasive species, and other human influences. Vegetation disturbance (e.g., by disease, pests and fire) will undoubtedly be exacerbated by climate change (stress), but could also speed the rate at which terrestrial biosphere change takes place in the future. The paleoenvironmental record makes it clear that major scientific challenges include an improved ability to model regional biospheric change, both past and future. This in turn will be a prerequisite to obtaining realistic estimates of future biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks, and thus to obtaining better assessments of future climate change. These steps will help generate the improved understanding of climate variability that is needed to manage global biodiversity. However, the most troubling message from the paleoenvironmental record is that unchecked anthropogenic climate change could make the Earth's 6th major mass extinction unavoidable.

  12. A satellite view of aerosols in the climate system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaufman, Yoram J.; Tanre, Didier; Boucher, Olivier

    2002-01-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols are intricately linked to the climate system and to the hydrologic cycle. The net effect of aerosols is to cool the climate system by reflecting sunlight. Depending on their composition, aerosols can also absorb sunlight in the atmosphere, further cooling the surface but warming the atmosphere in the process. These effects of aerosols on the temperature profile, along with the role of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei, impact the hydrologic cycle, through changes in cloud cover, cloud properties and precipitation. Unravelling these feedbacks is particularly difficult because aerosols take a multitude of shapes and forms, ranging from desert dust to urban pollution, and because aerosol concentrations vary strongly over time and space. To accurately study aerosol distribution and composition therefore requires continuous observations from satellites, networks of ground-based instruments and dedicated field experiments. Increases in aerosol concentration and changes in their composition, driven by industrialization and an expanding population, may adversely affect the Earth's climate and water supply.

  13. Couplings between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry

    SciTech Connect

    Menon, Surabi; Denman, Kenneth L.; Brasseur , Guy; Chidthaisong, Amnat; Ciais, Philippe; Cox, Peter M.; Dickinson, Robert E.; Hauglustaine, Didier; Heinze, Christoph; Holland, Elisabeth; Jacob , Daniel; Lohmann, Ulrike; Ramachandran, Srikanthan; Leite da Silva Dias, Pedro; Wofsy, Steven C.; Zhang, Xiaoye

    2007-10-01

    The Earth's climate is determined by a number of complex connected physical, chemical and biological processes occurring in the atmosphere, land and ocean. The radiative properties of the atmosphere, a major controlling factor of the Earth's climate, are strongly affected by the biophysical state of the Earth's surface and by the atmospheric abundance of a variety of trace constituents. These constituents include long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) such as carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}) and nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O), as well as other radiatively active constituents such as ozone and different types of aerosol particles. The composition of the atmosphere is determined by processes such as natural and anthropogenic emissions of gases and aerosols, transport at a variety of scales, chemical and microphysical transformations, wet scavenging and surface uptake by the land and terrestrial ecosystems, and by the ocean and its ecosystems. These processes and, more generally the rates of biogeochemical cycling, are affected by climate change, and involve interactions between and within the different components of the Earth system. These interactions are generally nonlinear and may produce negative or positive feedbacks to the climate system. An important aspect of climate research is to identify potential feedbacks and assess if such feedbacks could produce large and undesired responses to perturbations resulting from human activities. Studies of past climate evolution on different time scales can elucidate mechanisms that could trigger nonlinear responses to external forcing. The purpose of this chapter is to identify the major biogeochemical feedbacks of significance to the climate system, and to assess current knowledge of their magnitudes and trends. Specifically, this chapter will examine the relationships between the physical climate system and the land surface, the carbon cycle, chemically reactive atmospheric gases and aerosol particles. It also

  14. A Standardized Evaluation System for Decadal Climate Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kadow, C.; Cubasch, U.

    2012-12-01

    The evaluation of decadal prediction systems is a scientific challenge as well as a technical challenge in the climate research. The major project MiKlip (www.fona-miklip.de) for medium-term climate prediction funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany (BMBF) has the aim to create a model system that can provide reliable decadal forecasts on climate and weather. The model system to be developed will be novel in several aspects, with great challenges for the methodology development. This concerns especially the determination of the initial conditions, the inclusion into the model of processes relevant to decadal predictions, the increase of the spatial resolution through regionalisation, the improvement or adjustment of statistical post-processing, and finally the synthesis and validation of the entire model system. Therefore, a standardized evaluation system will be part of the MiKlip system to validate it - developed by the project 'Integrated data and evaluation system for decadal scale prediction' (INTEGRATION). The presentation gives an overview of the different linkages of such a project, shows the different development stages and gives an outlook for users and possible end users in climate service. The technical interface combines all projects inside of MiKlip and invites them to participate in a common evaluation system. The system design and the validation strategy from a standalone tool in the beginning to a user friendly web based system using GRID technologies to an integrated part of the operational MiKlip system for industry and society will give the opportunity to enhance the MiKlip strategy. First results of different possibilities of such a system will be shown to present the scientific background through Taylor diagrams, ensemble skill scores and e.g. climatological means to show the usability and possibilities of MiKlip and the INTEGRATION project.

  15. Controls on the Archean climate system investigated with a global climate model.

    PubMed

    Wolf, E T; Toon, O B

    2014-03-01

    The most obvious means of resolving the faint young Sun paradox is to invoke large quantities of greenhouse gases, namely, CO2 and CH4. However, numerous changes to the Archean climate system have been suggested that may have yielded additional warming, thus easing the required greenhouse gas burden. Here, we use a three-dimensional climate model to examine some of the factors that controlled Archean climate. We examine changes to Earth's rotation rate, surface albedo, cloud properties, and total atmospheric pressure following proposals from the recent literature. While the effects of increased planetary rotation rate on surface temperature are insignificant, plausible changes to the surface albedo, cloud droplet number concentrations, and atmospheric nitrogen inventory may each impart global mean warming of 3-7 K. While none of these changes present a singular solution to the faint young Sun paradox, a combination can have a large impact on climate. Global mean surface temperatures at or above 288 K could easily have been maintained throughout the entirety of the Archean if plausible changes to clouds, surface albedo, and nitrogen content occurred.

  16. Controls on the Archean climate system investigated with a global climate model.

    PubMed

    Wolf, E T; Toon, O B

    2014-03-01

    The most obvious means of resolving the faint young Sun paradox is to invoke large quantities of greenhouse gases, namely, CO2 and CH4. However, numerous changes to the Archean climate system have been suggested that may have yielded additional warming, thus easing the required greenhouse gas burden. Here, we use a three-dimensional climate model to examine some of the factors that controlled Archean climate. We examine changes to Earth's rotation rate, surface albedo, cloud properties, and total atmospheric pressure following proposals from the recent literature. While the effects of increased planetary rotation rate on surface temperature are insignificant, plausible changes to the surface albedo, cloud droplet number concentrations, and atmospheric nitrogen inventory may each impart global mean warming of 3-7 K. While none of these changes present a singular solution to the faint young Sun paradox, a combination can have a large impact on climate. Global mean surface temperatures at or above 288 K could easily have been maintained throughout the entirety of the Archean if plausible changes to clouds, surface albedo, and nitrogen content occurred. PMID:24621308

  17. Community Climate System Model (CCSM) Experiments and Output Data

    DOE Data Explorer

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) created the first version of the Community Climate Model (CCM) in 1983 as a global atmosphere model. It was improved in 1994 when NCAR, with support from the National Science Foundation (NSF), developed and incorporated a Climate System Model (CSM) that included atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice. As the capabilities of the model grew, so did interest in its applications and changes in how it would be managed. A workshop in 1996 set the future management structure, marked the beginning of the second phase of the model, a phase that included full participation of the scientific community, and also saw additional financial support, including support from the Department of Energy. In recognition of these changes, the model was renamed to the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). It began to function as a model with the interactions of land, sea, and air fully coupled, providing computer simulations of Earth's past climate, its present climate, and its possible future climate. The CCSM website at http://www2.cesm.ucar.edu/ describes some of the research that has been done since then: A 300-year run has been performed using the CSM, and results from this experiment have appeared in a special issue of theJournal of Climate, 11, June, 1998. A 125-year experiment has been carried out in which carbon dioxide was described to increase at 1% per year from its present concentration to approximately three times its present concentration. More recently, the Climate of the 20th Century experiment was run, with carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols prescribed to evolve according to our best knowledge from 1870 to the present. Three scenarios for the 21st century were developed: a "business as usual" experiment, in which greenhouse gases are assumed to increase with no economic constraints; an experiment using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Scenario A1; and a "policy

  18. Development and validation of the multidimensional motivational climate observation system.

    PubMed

    Smith, Nathan; Tessier, Damien; Tzioumakis, Yannis; Quested, Eleanor; Appleton, Paul; Sarrazin, Philippe; Papaioannou, Athanasios; Duda, Joan L

    2015-02-01

    This article outlines the development and validation of the Multidimensional Motivational Climate Observation System (MMCOS). Drawing from an integration of the dimensions of the social environment emphasized within achievement goal theory and self-determination theory (as assumed within Duda's [2013] conceptualization of "empowering" and "disempowering" climates), the MMCOS was developed to enable an objective assessment of the coach-created motivational environment in sport. Study 1 supported the initial validity and reliability of the newly developed observation system. Study 2 further examined the interobserver reliability and factorial structure of the MMCOS. Study 3 explored the predictive validity of the observational system in relation to athletes' reported basic psychological need satisfaction. Overall, the results of these studies provide preliminary support for the inter- and intraobserver reliability, as well as factorial and predictive validity of the MMCOS. Suggestions for the use of this observational system in future research in sport are provided.

  19. The UC-LLNL Regional Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, N.L.; Kim, Jinwon

    1996-09-01

    The UC-LLNL Regional Climate System Model has been under development since 1991. The unique system simulates climate from the global scale down to the watershed catchment scale, and consists of data pre- and post- processors, and four model components. The four model components are (1) a mesoscale atmospheric simulation model, (2) a soil-plant-snow model, (3) a watershed hydrology-riverflow model, and (4) a suite of crop response models. The first three model components have been coupled, and the system includes two-way feedbacks between the soil-plant-snow model and the mesoscale atmospheric simulation model. This three-component version of RCSM has been tested, validated, and successfully used for operational quantitative precipitation forecasts and seasonal water resource studies over the southwestern US. We are currently implementation and validating the fourth component, the Decision Support system for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). A description of the UC-LLNL RCSM and some recent results are presented.

  20. Earth System Grid II, Turning Climate Datasets into Community Resources

    SciTech Connect

    Middleton, Don

    2006-08-01

    The Earth System Grid (ESG) II project, funded by the Department of Energy’s Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing program, has transformed climate data into community resources. ESG II has accomplished this goal by creating a virtual collaborative environment that links climate centers and users around the world to models and data via a computing Grid, which is based on the Department of Energy’s supercomputing resources and the Internet. Our project’s success stems from partnerships between climate researchers and computer scientists to advance basic and applied research in the terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanic sciences. By interfacing with other climate science projects, we have learned that commonly used methods to manage and remotely distribute data among related groups lack infrastructure and under-utilize existing technologies. Knowledge and expertise gained from ESG II have helped the climate community plan strategies to manage a rapidly growing data environment more effectively. Moreover, approaches and technologies developed under the ESG project have impacted datasimulation integration in other disciplines, such as astrophysics, molecular biology and materials science.

  1. Modeling Arctic Climate with a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassano, J. J.; Duvivier, A.; Hughes, M.; Roberts, A.; Brunke, M.; Fisel, B. J.; Gutowski, W. J.; Maslowski, W.; Nijssen, B.; Osinski, R.; Zeng, X.

    2013-12-01

    A new regional Earth system model of the Arctic, the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), has recently been developed. The initial version of this model includes atmosphere (WRF), ocean (POP), sea ice (CICE), and land (VIC) component models coupled with the NCAR CESM CPL7 coupler. The model is configured to run on a large pan-Arctic domain that includes all sea ice covered waters in the Northern Hemisphere and all Arctic Ocean draining land areas. Results from multi-decadal (1989 to present) simulations with RASM will be presented and will focus on the model's representation of atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface climate, emphasizing both strengths and weaknesses of the current model climate and comparisons with atmosphere-only WRF simulations. Results from the model show both areas of improvement and degraded results relative to stand-alone WRF. Improvement in the coupled model climate are related to more physically realistic representation of coupled processes such as energy transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere through leads in the sea ice during winter. Degraded results come from feedbacks in model component biases, such as atmospheric circulation biases resulting in incorrect local sea ice cover that then result in large local atmospheric temperature biases. The issue of spectral nudging in a coupled regional climate model system as well as other lessons learned during the development of RASM will be discussed. The presentation will conclude with future plans for RASM.

  2. The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

    1988-01-01

    A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

  3. Regional Water System Vulnerabilities and Strengths for Unavoidable Climate Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gleick, P. H.; Palaniappan, M.; Christian-Smith, J.; Cooley, H.

    2011-12-01

    A wide range of options are available to help water systems prepare and adapt for unavoidable climate impacts, but these options vary depending on region, climatic conditions, economic status, and technical infrastructure in place. Drawing on case studies from the United States, India, and elsewhere, and from both urban and agricultural water systems, risks to water supply and quality are evaluated and summarized and categories of responses to help improve the effectiveness of adaptation policies are reviewed. Among the issues to be discussed are characteristics unique to developing country cities, such as the predominance of informal actors in the water sector. The formal, or government sector, which often exclusively manages water access and distribution in developed country cities, is only one among many players in the water sector in developing country cities. Informal access to water includes direct access by individuals through private groundwater systems, private water markets using vendors or sales of bottled water, and rainwater harvesting systems on individual homes. In this environment, with already existing pressures on water availability and use, the impacts of climate change on water will be strongly felt. This complicates planning for water supply and demand and risks increasing already prevalent water insecurity, especially for urban poor. In wealthier countries, any planning for water-related climate impacts tends to take the form of "business as usual" responses, such as efforts to expand supply with new infrastructure, manage demand through conservation programs, or simply put off addressing the problem to the next generation of managers and users. These approaches can be effective, but also risk missing unusual, non-linear, or threshold impacts. Examples of more informed and innovative efforts to substantively address climate change risks will be presented.

  4. Actualizing panarchy within environmental policy: mechanisms for tweaking institutional hierarchies to mimic the social-ecological systems they manage

    EPA Science Inventory

    Environmental law plays a key role in shaping approaches to sustainability. In particular, the role of legal instruments, institutions, and the relationship of law to the inherent variability in social-ecological systems is critical. Sustainability likely must occur via the insti...

  5. Can Schools Be Autonomous in a Centralised Educational System?: On Formal and Actual School Autonomy in the Italian Context

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Agasisti, Tommaso; Catalano, Giuseppe; Sibiano, Piergiacomo

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the difference between formal and real school autonomy in the Italian educational system. The Italian case is characterised by low levels of school autonomy. It is interesting to consider whether heterogeneity of patterns is possible in this context. A description of this heterogeneity is provided…

  6. Precambrian evolution of the climate system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walker, James C. G.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents a new examination of the biogeochemical cycles of carbon as they may have changed between an Archean Earth deficient in land, sedimentary rocks, and biological activity, and a Proterozoic Earth much like the modern Earth, but lacking terrestrial life and carbonate-secreting plankton. Results of a numerical simulation of this transition show how increasing biological activity could have drawn down atmospheric carbon dioxide by extracting sedimentary organic carbon from the system. Increasing area of continents could further have drawn down carbon dioxide by encouraging the accumulation of carbonate sediments. An attempt to develop a numerical simulation of the carbon cycles of the Precambrian raises questions about sources and sinks of marine carbon and alkalinity on a world without continents. More information is needed about sea-floor weathering processes.

  7. Economic Value of an Advanced Climate Observing System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.

    2013-12-01

    Scientific missions increasingly need to show the monetary value of knowledge advances in budget-constrained environments. For example, suppose a climate science mission promises to yield decisive information on the rate of human caused global warming within a shortened time frame. How much should society be willing to pay for this knowledge today? The US interagency memo on the social cost of carbon (SCC) creates a standard yardstick for valuing damages from carbon emissions. We illustrate how value of information (VOI) calculations can be used to monetize the relative value of different climate observations. We follow the SCC, setting uncertainty in climate sensitivity to a truncated Roe and Baker (2007) distribution, setting discount rates of 2.5%, 3% and 5%, and using one of the Integrated Assessment Models sanctioned in SCC (DICE, Nordhaus 2008). We consider three mitigation scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), a moderate mitigation response DICE Optimal, and a strong response scenario (Stern). To illustrate results, suppose that we are on the BAU emissions scenario, and that we would switch to the Stern emissions path if we learn with 90% confidence that the decadal rate of temperature change reaches or exceeds 0.2 C/decade. Under the SCC assumptions, the year in which this happens, if it happens, depends on the uncertain climate sensitivity and on the emissions path. The year in which we become 90% certain that it happens depends, in addition, on our Earth observations, their accuracy, and their completeness. The basic concept is that more accurate observations can shorten the time for societal decisions. The economic value of the resulting averted damages depends on the discount rate, and the years in which the damages occur. A new climate observation would be economically justified if the net present value (NPV) of the difference in averted damages, relative to the existing systems, exceeds the NPV of the system costs. Our results (Cooke et al. 2013

  8. Effect of long-term actual spaceflight on the expression of key genes encoding serotonin and dopamine system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popova, Nina; Shenkman, Boris; Naumenko, Vladimir; Kulikov, Alexander; Kondaurova, Elena; Tsybko, Anton; Kulikova, Elisabeth; Krasnov, I. B.; Bazhenova, Ekaterina; Sinyakova, Nadezhda

    The effect of long-term spaceflight on the central nervous system represents important but yet undeveloped problem. The aim of our work was to study the effect of 30-days spaceflight of mice on Russian biosatellite BION-M1 on the expression in the brain regions of key genes of a) serotonin (5-HT) system (main enzymes in 5-HT metabolism - tryptophan hydroxylase-2 (TPH-2), monoamine oxydase A (MAO A), 5-HT1A, 5-HT2A and 5-HT3 receptors); b) pivotal enzymes in DA metabolism (tyrosine hydroxylase, COMT, MAO A, MAO B) and D1, D2 receptors. Decreased expression of genes encoding the 5-HT catabolism (MAO A) and 5-HT2A receptor in some brain regions was shown. There were no differences between “spaceflight” and control mice in the expression of TPH-2 and 5-HT1A, 5-HT3 receptor genes. Significant changes were found in genetic control of DA system. Long-term spaceflight decreased the expression of genes encoding the enzyme in DA synthesis (tyrosine hydroxylase in s.nigra), DA metabolism (MAO B in the midbrain and COMT in the striatum), and D1 receptor in hypothalamus. These data suggested that 1) microgravity affected genetic control of 5-HT and especially the nigrostriatal DA system implicated in the central regulation of muscular tonus and movement, 2) the decrease in the expression of genes encoding key enzyme in DA synthesis, DA degradation and D1 receptor contributes to the movement impairment and dyskinesia produced by the spaceflight. The study was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research grant № 14-04-00173.

  9. Climate balance of biogas upgrading systems

    SciTech Connect

    Pertl, A.; Mostbauer, P.; Obersteiner, G.

    2010-01-15

    One of the numerous applications of renewable energy is represented by the use of upgraded biogas where needed by feeding into the gas grid. The aim of the present study was to identify an upgrading scenario featuring minimum overall GHG emissions. The study was based on a life-cycle approach taking into account also GHG emissions resulting from plant cultivation to the process of energy conversion. For anaerobic digestion two substrates have been taken into account: (1) agricultural resources and (2) municipal organic waste. The study provides results for four different upgrading technologies including the BABIU (Bottom Ash for Biogas Upgrading) method. As the transport of bottom ash is a critical factor implicated in the BABIU-method, different transport distances and means of conveyance (lorry, train) have been considered. Furthermore, aspects including biogas compression and energy conversion in a combined heat and power plant were assessed. GHG emissions from a conventional energy supply system (natural gas) have been estimated as reference scenario. The main findings obtained underlined how the overall reduction of GHG emissions may be rather limited, for example for an agricultural context in which PSA-scenarios emit only 10% less greenhouse gases than the reference scenario. The BABIU-method constitutes an efficient upgrading method capable of attaining a high reduction of GHG emission by sequestration of CO{sub 2}.

  10. Climate balance of biogas upgrading systems.

    PubMed

    Pertl, A; Mostbauer, P; Obersteiner, G

    2010-01-01

    One of the numerous applications of renewable energy is represented by the use of upgraded biogas where needed by feeding into the gas grid. The aim of the present study was to identify an upgrading scenario featuring minimum overall GHG emissions. The study was based on a life-cycle approach taking into account also GHG emissions resulting from plant cultivation to the process of energy conversion. For anaerobic digestion two substrates have been taken into account: (1) agricultural resources and (2) municipal organic waste. The study provides results for four different upgrading technologies including the BABIU (Bottom Ash for Biogas Upgrading) method. As the transport of bottom ash is a critical factor implicated in the BABIU-method, different transport distances and means of conveyance (lorry, train) have been considered. Furthermore, aspects including biogas compression and energy conversion in a combined heat and power plant were assessed. GHG emissions from a conventional energy supply system (natural gas) have been estimated as reference scenario. The main findings obtained underlined how the overall reduction of GHG emissions may be rather limited, for example for an agricultural context in which PSA-scenarios emit only 10% less greenhouse gases than the reference scenario. The BABIU-method constitutes an efficient upgrading method capable of attaining a high reduction of GHG emission by sequestration of CO(2).

  11. Big Data and Data Models for Climate System Energetics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fillmore, D. W.; Habermann, T.; Goedecke, W. B.

    2015-12-01

    Multi-decade satellite missions, such as the NASA CERES mission designed to place observational constraints on the distribution of reflected solar radiation and emitted thermal radiation, present a significant challenge both in the analysis of heterogeneous Big Data and in data continuity. The NASA CERES EBAF dataset is a part of a broader effort to increase the usability of satellite observational data for the climate modeling community. Issues of accessibility, consistency, and reproducibility are paramount. Here we describe the transformation of CERES measurements from source to high level data products intended for direct use by the climate community. At each stage we examine data storage and processing patterns, metadata and potential challenges in reproducibility. The spatial distribution of net energy uptake and transport in the climate system, and its evolution over interannual and decadal time scales, is fundamental to the development of Earth system models. The workflow begins with the CERES footprint radiance seen by a polar orbiter, to the conversion of radiance to radiometric fluxes based on scene identification from MODIS and VIIRS imagery, followed by diurnal interpolation through the use of geostationary satellite imagery and eventually to the creation of high level gridded data products, the ultimate being the Energy Balanced and Filled flux product for direct comparison to climate models. Based on this CERES case study we try to anticipate future questions the may arise in the context of these massive satellite data collections, and what new data models may facilitate future data analysis.

  12. Actual Condition Evaluation of Cogeneration System in an Urbanized Hotel, and Study of the Optimal Operation to Minimize the CO2 Emission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Katsuta, Masafumi; Kaneko, Akira; Yamamoto, Toru

    Recently, there is an important subject to reduce of the CO2 emission discharged from a building. A cogeneration system (CGS) is one of the effective facilities to reduce of the CO2 emission, but prudent consideration is required in design and operation. Because it is necessary to be matching electric demand and heat demand in order to obtain the high efficiency. In this paper, it is evaluated the power generation efficiency and heat recovery one of CGS in the actual urbanized hotel as measurement result. In addition, the optimal operation analysis is carried out in order to minimize CO2 emission in the present facility.

  13. NASA's Earth Observing System: The Transition from Climate Monitoring to Climate Change Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    King, Michael D.; Herring, David D.

    1998-01-01

    Earth's 4.5 billion year history is a study in change. Natural geological forces have been rearranging the surface features and climatic conditions of our planet since its beginning. There is scientific evidence that some of these natural changes have not only led to mass extinctions of species (e.g., dinosaurs), but have also severely impacted human civilizations. For instance, there is evidence that a relatively sudden climate change caused a 300-year drought that contributed to the downfall of Akkadia, one of the most powerful empires in the Middle-East region around 2200 BC. More recently, the "little ice age" from 1200-1400 AD forced the Vikings to abandon Greenland when temperatures there dropped by about 1.5 C, rendering it too difficult to grow enough crops to sustain the population. Today, there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have attained the magnitude of a geological force and are speeding up the rate of global change. For example, carbon dioxide levels have risen 30 percent since the industrial revolution and about 40 percent of the world's land surface has been transformed by humans. We don't understand the cause-and-effect relationships among Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere well enough to predict what, if any, impacts these rapid changes will have on future climate conditions. We need to make many measurements all over the world, over a long period of time, in order to assemble the information needed to construct accurate computer models that will enable us to forecast climate change. In 1988, the Earth System Sciences Committee, sponsored by NASA, issued a report calling for an integrated, long-term strategy for measuring the vital signs of Earth's climate system. The report urged that the measurements must all be intimately coupled with focused process studies, they must facilitate development of Earth system models, and they must be stored in an information system that ensures open access to consistent, long-term data

  14. Nervous System of Periplaneta americana Cockroach as a Model in Toxinological Studies: A Short Historical and Actual View.

    PubMed

    Stankiewicz, Maria; Dąbrowski, Marcin; de Lima, Maria Elena

    2012-01-01

    Nervous system of Periplaneta americana cockroach is used in a wide range of pharmacological studies, including electrophysiological techniques. This paper presents its role as a preparation in the development of toxinological studies in the following electrophysiological methods: double-oil-gap technique on isolated giant axon, patch-clamp on DUM (dorsal unpaired median) neurons, microelectrode technique in situ conditions on axon in connective and DUM neurons in ganglion, and single-fiber oil-gap technique on last abdominal ganglion synapse. At the end the application of cockroach synaptosomal preparation is mentioned. PMID:22666245

  15. Does the public deserve free access to climate system science?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grigorov, Ivo

    2010-05-01

    Some time ago it was the lack of public access to medical research data that really stirred the issue and gave inertia for legislation and a new publishing model that puts tax payer-funded medical research in the hands of those who fund it. In today's age global climate change has become the biggest socio-economic challenge, and the same argument resonates: climate affects us all and the publicly-funded science quantifying it should be freely accessible to all stakeholders beyond academic research. Over the last few years the ‘Open Access' movement to remove as much as possible subscription, and other on-campus barriers to academic research has rapidly gathered pace, but despite significant progress, the climate system sciences are not among the leaders in providing full access to their publications and data. Beyond the ethical argument, there are proven and tangible benefits for the next generation of climate researchers to adapt the way their output is published. Through the means provided by ‘open access', both data and ideas can gain more visibility, use and citations for the authors, but also result in a more rapid exchange of knowledge and ideas, and ultimately progress towards a sought solution. The presentation will aim to stimulate discussion and seek progress on the following questions: Should free access to climate research (& data) be mandatory? What are the career benefits of using ‘open access' for young scientists? What means and methods should, or could, be incorporated into current European graduate training programmes in climate research, and possible ways forward?

  16. The ATOMMS Radio Occultation Climate Remote Sensing System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kursinski, E. R.; Otarola, A. C.; Ward, D.; McGhee, J.; Reed, H.; Walden, L.

    2012-12-01

    Increasingly complex computer models approximate the climate system and make predictions about how climate will change. In order to make informed decisions about what to do about climate change, one must know how trustworthy these predictions are. Assessing the accuracy of the models and their predictions can only come from comparing models with observations of the real climate. Therefore, we must have observations that precisely and unambiguously determine the state of the climate system, and they must do so independently from the atmospheric models they are being compared against. While this is a very basic point of logic, it is quite difficult to achieve in practice because of the difficulties and limitations of the observations. For this purpose we have been developing a new orbiting remote sensing system called the Active Temperature, Ozone and Moisture Microwave Spectrometer (ATOMMS) that is a cross between GPS radio occultation and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Unlike GPS which uses wavelengths that minimize interaction with the atmosphere, ATOMMS actively probes water vapor and other absorption lines at cm and mm wavelengths in an occultation geometry to simultaneously profile temperature and water vapor. During each occultation, ATOMMS measures the changes in signal amplitude and frequency caused by passage through the atmosphere relative to the amplitude and frequency measured less than 100 seconds earlier when the signal path was above the atmosphere. As such, the ATOMMS observations are inherently self-calibrating. Furthermore, unlike the inherently ambiguous and non-unique atmospheric profiles retrieved from thermal radiance measurements, the atmospheric profiles retrieved from occultations are unique. The expected accuracy of individual ATOMMS profiles of water vapor, temperature and pressure heights is approximately 1%, 0.4K and 10 m respectively with 200 m or better vertical resolution. Performance in cloudy areas will be within a factor of 2 of

  17. Form and Actuality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bitbol, Michel

    A basic choice underlies physics. It consists of banishing actual situations from theoretical descriptions, in order to reach a universal formal construct. Actualities are then thought of as mere local appearances of a transcendent reality supposedly described by the formal construct. Despite its impressive success, this method has left major loopholes in the foundations of science. In this paper, I document two of these loopholes. One is the problem of time asymmetry in statistical thermodynamics, and the other is the measurement problem of quantum mechanics. Then, adopting a broader philosophical standpoint, I try to turn the whole picture upside down. Here, full priority is given to actuality (construed as a mode of the immanent reality self-reflectively being itself) over formal constructs. The characteristic aporias of this variety of "Copernican revolution" are discussed.

  18. Resentment of paternalism as system change sentiment: hostile sexism toward men and actual behavior in the 2008 U.S. presidential election.

    PubMed

    Tate, Charlotte Chuck

    2014-01-01

    Taking inspiration from Glick and colleagues (2004), this study tested the idea that resentment of paternalism (which is part of the hostile sexism toward men construct) might approximate desire for system change by correlating this variable with actual behavior associated with system change in a single culture. Specifically, voting behavior in the 2008 U.S. presidential election was predicted from political party affiliation, measures of hostile and benevolent sexism toward both women and men, and egalitarian racial attitudes using a U.S. college student sample. Results indicated that the only significant predictors of voting behavior were political party affiliation, resentment of paternalism, and egalitarian racial attitudes. Higher levels of resentment of paternalism were in fact associated with voting for the ticket that represented system change-holding the other predictors constant.

  19. The development of a test system for investigating the performances of personal aerosol samplers under actual workplace conditions.

    PubMed

    Botham, R A; Hughson, G W; Vincent, J H; Mark, D

    1991-10-01

    The performances of new "total" aerosol samplers for use in workplaces are required to match the inhalability criteria as contained in the latest recommendations of the International Standards Organization (ISO) and the American Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists (ACGIH). In the past, practical evaluations have been carried out under idealized conditions in wind tunnels, and there is now the need to extend these to more realistic workplace conditions. This paper describes a new test system that was designed and built for this purpose. It consisted of a life-size mannequin mounted on a trolley so that it can be taken to and wheeled around in workplaces. The mannequin itself incorporated a robotic arm so that, under joystick control, it can be made to simulate a range of worker movements, orientations, and attitudes. An electronically controlled, compact breathing machine provided a range of typical breathing parameters for the mannequin. The pump also provided air movement for a number of personal samplers that were mounted on the torso of the mannequin and tested in that position. Sampler performance should be assessed by comparing directly the aerosol collected by the sampler with that inhaled by the mannequin (and collected on filters inside the head).

  20. Data management support for selected climate data sets using the climate data access system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reph, M. G.

    1983-01-01

    The functional capabilities of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Climate Data Access System (CDAS), an interactive data storage and retrieval system, and the archival data sets which this system manages are discussed. The CDAS manages several climate-related data sets, such as the First Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) Global Experiment (FGGE) Level 2-b and Level 3-a data tapes. CDAS data management support consists of three basic functions: (1) an inventory capability which allows users to search or update a disk-resident inventory describing the contents of each tape in a data set, (2) a capability to depict graphically the spatial coverage of a tape in a data set, and (3) a data set selection capability which allows users to extract portions of a data set using criteria such as time, location, and data source/parameter and output the data to tape, user terminal, or system printer. This report includes figures that illustrate menu displays and output listings for each CDAS function.

  1. Climate Change and Infrastructure, Urban Systems, and Vulnerabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Wilbanks, Thomas J; Fernandez, Steven J

    2014-01-01

    This Technical Report on Climate Change and Infrastructure, Urban Systems, and Vulnerabilities has been prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in support of the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). It is a summary of the currently existing knowledge base on its topic, nested within a broader framing of issues and questions that need further attention in the longer run. The report arrives at a number of assessment findings, each associated with an evaluation of the level of consensus on that issue within the expert community, the volume of evidence available to support that judgment, and the section of the report that provides an explanation for the finding. Cross-sectoral issues related to infrastructures and urban systems have not received a great deal of attention to date in research literatures in general and climate change assessments in particular. As a result, this technical report is breaking new ground as a component of climate change vulnerability and impact assessments in the U.S., which means that some of its assessment findings are rather speculative, more in the nature of propositions for further study than specific conclusions that are offered with a high level of confidence and research support. But it is a start in addressing questions that are of interest to many policymakers and stakeholders. A central theme of the report is that vulnerabilities and impacts are issues beyond physical infrastructures themselves. The concern is with the value of services provided by infrastructures, where the true consequences of impacts and disruptions involve not only the costs associated with the clean-up, repair, and/or replacement of affected infrastructures but also economic, social, and environmental effects as supply chains are disrupted, economic activities are suspended, and/or social well-being is threatened. Current knowledge indicates that vulnerability concerns tend to be focused on extreme weather events

  2. Vulnerability of bank filtration systems to climate change.

    PubMed

    Sprenger, C; Lorenzen, G; Hülshoff, I; Grützmacher, G; Ronghang, M; Pekdeger, A

    2011-01-15

    Bank filtration (BF) is a well established and proven natural water treatment technology, where surface water is infiltrated to an aquifer through river or lake banks. Improvement of water quality is achieved by a series of chemical, biological and physical processes during subsurface passage. This paper aims at identifying climate sensitive factors affecting bank filtration performance and assesses their relevance based on hypothetical 'drought' and 'flood' climate scenarios. The climate sensitive factors influencing water quantity and quality also have influence on substance removal parameters such as redox conditions and travel time. Droughts are found to promote anaerobic conditions during bank filtration passage, while flood events can drastically shorten travel time and cause breakthrough of pathogens, metals, suspended solids, DOC and organic micropollutants. The study revealed that only BF systems comprising an oxic to anoxic redox sequence ensure maximum removal efficiency. The storage capacity of the banks and availability of two source waters renders BF for drinking water supply less vulnerable than surface water or groundwater abstraction alone. Overall, BF is vulnerable to climate change although anthropogenic impacts are at least as important.

  3. Modeling Feedbacks Between Water and Vegetation in the Climate System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Not only is water essential for life on earth, but life itself affects the global hydrologic cycle and consequently the climate of the planet. Whether the global feedbacks between life and the hydrologic cycle tend to stabilize the climate system about some equilibrium level is difficult to assess. We use a global climate model to examine how the presence of vegetation can affect the hydrologic cycle in a particular region. A control for the present climate is compared with a model experiment in which the Sahara Desert is replaced by vegetation in the form of trees and shrubs common to the Sahel region. A second model experiment is designed to identify the separate roles of two different effects of vegetation, namely the modified albedo and the presence of roots that can extract moisture from deeper soil layers. The results show that the presence of vegetation leads to increases in precipitation and soil moisture in western Sahara. In eastern Sahara, the changes are less clear. The increase in soil moisture is greater when the desert albedo is replaced by the vegetation albedo than when both the vegetation albedo and roots are added. The effect of roots is to withdraw water from deeper layers during the dry season. One implication of this study is that the insertion of vegetation into the Sahara modifies the hydrologic cycle so that the vegetation is more likely to persist than initially.

  4. The Aerosol-Monsoon Climate System of Asia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kyu-Myong, Kim

    2012-01-01

    In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air-pollution are worsening due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants stemming from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash flood or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human lives, and damages in crop and properties with devastating societal impacts on Asian countries. Historically, air-pollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However a growing number of recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically intertwined and need to be studied jointly. Because of complexity of the dynamics of the monsoon systems, aerosol impacts on monsoons and vice versa must be studied and understood in the context of aerosol forcing in relationship to changes in fundamental driving forces of the monsoon climate system (e.g. sea surface temperature, land-sea contrast etc.) on time scales from intraseasonal variability (weeks) to climate change ( multi-decades). Indeed, because of the large contributions of aerosols to the global and regional energy balance of the atmosphere and earth surface, and possible effects of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation, a better understanding of the response to climate change in Asian monsoon regions requires that aerosols be considered as an integral component of a fully coupled aerosol-monsoon system on all time scales. In this paper, using observations and results from climate modeling, we will discuss the coherent variability of the coupled aerosol-monsoon climate system in South Asia and East Asia, including aerosol distribution and types, with respect to rainfall, moisture, winds, land-sea thermal contrast, heat sources and sink distributions in the atmosphere in seasonal, interannual to climate change time scales. We will show examples of how elevated

  5. Integrated Information Systems Across the Weather-Climate Continuum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulwarty, R. S.; Higgins, W.; Nierenberg, C.; Trtanj, J.

    2015-12-01

    The increasing demand for well-organized (integrated) end-to-end research-based information has been highlighted in several National Academy studies, in IPCC Reports (such as the SREX and Fifth Assessment) and by public and private constituents. Such information constitutes a significant component of the "environmental intelligence" needed to address myriad societal needs for early warning and resilience across the weather-climate continuum. The next generation of climate research in service to the nation requires an even more visible, authoritative and robust commitment to scientific integration in support of adaptive information systems that address emergent risks and inform longer-term resilience strategies. A proven mechanism for resourcing such requirements is to demonstrate vision, purpose, support, connection to constituencies, and prototypes of desired capabilities. In this presentation we will discuss efforts at NOAA, and elsewhere, that: Improve information on how changes in extremes in key phenomena such as drought, floods, and heat stress impact management decisions for resource planning and disaster risk reduction Develop regional integrated information systems to address these emergent challenges, that integrate observations, monitoring and prediction, impacts assessments and scenarios, preparedness and adaptation, and coordination and capacity-building. Such systems, as illustrated through efforts such as NIDIS, have strengthened the integration across the foundational research enterprise (through for instance, RISAs, Modeling Analysis Predictions and Projections) by increasing agility for responding to emergent risks. The recently- initiated Climate Services Information System, in support of the WMO Global Framework for Climate Services draws on the above models and will be introduced during the presentation.

  6. Assessing the Future Climate Change in Amazon Basin as Derived from the PRECIS Regional Climate Modeling System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alves, L. M.; Marengo, J. A.; Fu, R.

    2014-12-01

    A number of extreme climate events, such as severe droughts occurred in 2005 and 2010, and impacts from multiple anthropogenic sources, including deforestation, in the Amazon basin have caused widespread socio-ecological stresses and may contribute as a positive feedback to the global climate change. Climate variability and change over the Amazon basin pose significant challenges for society. This is the case when uncertainties in projections of regional climate changes exist. To assess the climate projections and possible changes in the dry season (strength and duration) over Amazon, we have conducted a suite of experiments using the PRECIS regional climate modeling system driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the PRECIS model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 periods. In additional, we have used one of the new LU scenarios (for 2050) developed within AMAZALERT Project to assess its effects on climate over the Amazon basin relative to the standard PRECIS simulation.

  7. Multi-model vs mixed-physics ensemble of climate runs: implications for climate change impacts in cropping systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Domínguez, Marta; Gaertner, Miguel Angel

    2010-05-01

    This work compares the uncertainty of impact projections of climate change on agriculture when using climate ensembles built with different criteria. Two ensembles based on Regional Climate Models were used: a multi-model ensemble of 5 RCMs at 50 x 50 km of resolution and a mixed-physics ensemble of 5 different parameterizations of the RCM PROMES. Both ensembles of climate were used to run crop simulations. A crop model was used for simulating growth and development of irrigated wheat across main agricultural areas of Spain. These simulations extended the work done in Ruiz-Ramos et al. (2009) for maize, including contrasting growing seasons in the uncertainty analysis. The simulations considered 10 years of control climate and 10 years of A2 IPCC SRES scenario, for the five members of both ensembles of climate. Uncertainties analysis focused on the degree of coincidence on the sign of impact of crop yield projections, and on the magnitude of impacts when comparing projections from ensemble members. The results allowed for evaluating the contribution of RCM parameterizations to uncertainty generated through the modelling chain from climate to impacts. They also provided insights about the constraints and proper use of different sorts of ensembles of climate for evaluating agricultural impacts of climate change. References Ruiz-Ramos M, Domínguez M, and Gaertner MA, 2009. Contribution of changes in RCM parameterizations to uncertainties in the projections of climate change impacts in cropping systems. Geophysical Research Abstracts,Vol. 11, EGU2009-7773.

  8. Linkages between the Urban Environment and Earth's Climate System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

    2003-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025 60% of the world s population will live in cities (UNFP, 1999). Though urban areas are local in scale, human activity in urban environments has impacts at local, to global scale by changing atmospheric composition; impacting components of the water cycle; and modifying the carbon cycle 2nd ecosystems. For example, urban dwellers are undoubtedly familiar with "high" ozone pollution days, flash flooding in city streets, or heat stress on summer days. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s weather, oceans, and land work together and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. This paper highlights some of the major and current issues involving interactions between urban environments and the Earth's climate system. It also captures some of the most current thinking and findings of the authors and key experts in the field.

  9. Climate change adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Griffith, Brad; Scott, J. Michael; Adamcik, Robert S.; Ashe, Daniel; Czech, Brian; Fischman, Robert; Gonzalez, Patrick; Lawler, Joshua J.; McGuire, A. David; Pidgorna, Anna

    2009-01-01

    Since its establishment in 1903, the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) has grown to 635 units and 37 Wetland Management Districts in the United States and its territories. These units provide the seasonal habitats necessary for migratory waterfowl and other species to complete their annual life cycles. Habitat conversion and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution, and competition for water have stressed refuges for decades, but the interaction of climate change with these stressors presents the most recent, pervasive, and complex conservation challenge to the NWRS. Geographic isolation and small unit size compound the challenges of climate change, but a combined emphasis on species that refuges were established to conserve and on maintaining biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health provides the NWRS with substantial latitude to respond. Individual symptoms of climate change can be addressed at the refuge level, but the strategic response requires system-wide planning. A dynamic vision of the NWRS in a changing climate, an explicit national strategic plan to implement that vision, and an assessment of representation, redundancy, size, and total number of units in relation to conservation targets are the first steps toward adaptation. This adaptation must begin immediately and be built on more closely integrated research and management. Rigorous projections of possible futures are required to facilitate adaptation to change. Furthermore, the effective conservation footprint of the NWRS must be increased through land acquisition, creative partnerships, and educational programs in order for the NWRS to meet its legal mandate to maintain the biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the system and the species and ecosystems that it supports.

  10. Climate change adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System.

    PubMed

    Griffith, Brad; Scott, J Michael; Adamcik, Robert; Ashe, Daniel; Czech, Brian; Fischman, Robert; Gonzalez, Patrick; Lawler, Joshua; McGuire, A David; Pidgorna, Anna

    2009-12-01

    Since its establishment in 1903, the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) has grown to 635 units and 37 Wetland Management Districts in the United States and its territories. These units provide the seasonal habitats necessary for migratory waterfowl and other species to complete their annual life cycles. Habitat conversion and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution, and competition for water have stressed refuges for decades, but the interaction of climate change with these stressors presents the most recent, pervasive, and complex conservation challenge to the NWRS. Geographic isolation and small unit size compound the challenges of climate change, but a combined emphasis on species that refuges were established to conserve and on maintaining biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health provides the NWRS with substantial latitude to respond. Individual symptoms of climate change can be addressed at the refuge level, but the strategic response requires system-wide planning. A dynamic vision of the NWRS in a changing climate, an explicit national strategic plan to implement that vision, and an assessment of representation, redundancy, size, and total number of units in relation to conservation targets are the first steps toward adaptation. This adaptation must begin immediately and be built on more closely integrated research and management. Rigorous projections of possible futures are required to facilitate adaptation to change. Furthermore, the effective conservation footprint of the NWRS must be increased through land acquisition, creative partnerships, and educational programs in order for the NWRS to meet its legal mandate to maintain the biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the system and the species and ecosystems that it supports.

  11. Climate Outreach Using Regional Coastal Ocean Observing System Portals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, D. M.; Hernandez, D. L.; Wakely, A.; Bochenek, R. J.; Bickel, A.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal oceans are dynamic, changing environments affected by processes ranging from seconds to millennia. On the east and west coast of the U.S., regional observing systems have deployed and sustained a remarkable diverse array of observing tools and sensors. Data portals visualize and provide access to real-time sensor networks. Portals have emerged as an interactive tool for educators to help students explore and understand climate. Bringing data portals to outreach events, into classrooms, and onto tablets and smartphones enables educators to address topics and phenomena happening right now. For example at the 2015 Charleston Science Technology Engineering and Math (STEM) Festival, visitors navigated the SECOORA (Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing regional Association) data portal to view the real-time marine meteorological conditions off South Carolina. Map-based entry points provide an intuitive interface for most students, an array of time series and other visualizations depict many of the essential principles of climate science manifest in the coastal zone, and data down-load/ extract options provide access to the data and documentation for further inquiry by advanced users. Beyond the exposition of climate principles, the portal experience reveals remarkable technologies in action and shows how the observing system is enabled by the activity of many different partners.

  12. Climate Ocean Modeling on a Beowulf Class System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cheng, B. N.; Chao, Y.; Wang, P.; Bondarenko, M.

    2000-01-01

    With the growing power and shrinking cost of personal computers. the availability of fast ethernet interconnections, and public domain software packages, it is now possible to combine them to build desktop parallel computers (named Beowulf or PC clusters) at a fraction of what it would cost to buy systems of comparable power front supercomputer companies. This led as to build and assemble our own sys tem. specifically for climate ocean modeling. In this article, we present our experience with such a system, discuss its network performance, and provide some performance comparison data with both HP SPP2000 and Cray T3E for an ocean Model used in present-day oceanographic research.

  13. High Resolution River Routing in the Community Climate System Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Branstetter, M. L.; Erickson, D. J.; Drake, J.; Allen, M.

    2009-12-01

    The current version of the Community Climate System Model CCSM uses half degree resolution river routing within the land component of CCSM. We present a scaling approach and status on a project to produce a much higher resolution data set for river routing to go along with higher resolution land cover data sets for the Community Land Model CLM in order to take advantage of the increasing computational power now available. The new higher resolution data set is based on the Hydrosheds and Hydro1K datasets from USGS. The flow directions are used to generate basins so that the computational load can be distributed among processors by basins to minimize the parallel communication necessary. The code modifications will make the river component more scalable and efficient. The higher resolution models enable detailed study of climatic effects from human induced land cover/land use changes such as the deployment of biofuel crops for energy production.

  14. High resolution river routing in the Community Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Erickson III, David J; Drake, John B

    2009-12-01

    The current version of the Community Climate System Model CCSM uses half degree resolution river routing within the land component of CCSM. We present a scaling approach and status on a project to produce a much higher resolution data set for river routing to go along with higher resolution land cover data sets for the Community Land Model CLM in order to take advantage of the increasing computational power now available. The new higher resolution data set is based on the Hydrosheds and Hydro1K datasets from USGS. The flow directions are used to generate basins so that the computational load can be distributed among processors by basins to minimize the parallel communication necessary. The code modifications will make the river component more scalable and efficient. The higher resolution models enable detailed study of climatic effects from human induced land cover/land use changes such as the deployment of biofuel crops for energy production.

  15. Parallelizing Climate Data Management System, version 3 (CDMS3)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nadeau, D.; Williams, D. N.; Painter, J.; Doutriaux, C.

    2015-12-01

    The Climate Data Management System is an object-oriented data management system, specialized for organizing multidimensional, gridded data used in climate analyses for data observation and simulation. The basic unit of computation in CDMS3 is the variable, which consist of a multidimensional array that represents climate information in four dimensions corresponding to: time, pressure levels, latitudes, and longitudes. As model become more precise in their computation, the volume of data generated becomes bigger and difficult to handle due to the limit of computational resources. Model today can produce data a time frequency of one hourly, three hourly, or six hourly for spatial footprint close to satellite data used run models. The amount of time for scientists to analyze the data and retrieve useful information is more and more unmanageable. Parallelizing libraries such as CMDS3 would ease the burden of working with such big datasets. Multiple approaches of parallelizing are possible. The most obvious one is embarrassingly parallel or pleasingly parallel programming where each computer node processes one file at a time. A more challenging approach is to send a piece of the data to each node for computation and each node will save the results at its right place in a file as a slab of data. This is possible with Hierarchical Data Format 5 (HDF5) using the Message Passing Interface (MPI). A final approach would be the use of Open Multi-Processing API (OpenMP) where a master thread is split in multiple threads for different sections of the main code. Each method has its advantages and disadvantages. This poster bring to light each benefit of these methods and seek to find an optimal solution to compute climate data analyses in a efficient fashion using one or a mixtures of these parallelized methods.

  16. Intersects between Land, Energy, Water and the Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hibbard, K. A.; Skaggs, R.; Wilson, T.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change affects water, and land resources, and with growing human activity, each of these sectors relies increasingly on the others for critical resources. Events such as drought across the South Central U.S. during 2011 demonstrate that climatic impacts within each of these sectors can cascade through interactions between sectors. Energy, water, and land resources are each vulnerable to impacts on either of the other two sectors. For example, energy systems inherently require land and water. Increased electricity demands to contend with climate change can impose additional burdens on overly subscribed water resources. Within this environment, energy systems compete for water with agriculture, human consumption, and other needs. In turn, climate driven changes in landscape attributes and land use affect water quality and availability as well as energy demands. Diminishing water quality and availability impose additional demands for energy to access and purify water, and for land to store and distribute water. In some situations, interactions between water, energy, and land resources make options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions vulnerable to climate change. Energy options such as solar power or biofuel use can reduce net greenhouse gas emissions as well as U.S. dependence on foreign resources. As a result, the U.S. is expanding renewable energy systems. Advanced technology such as carbon dioxide capture with biofuels may offer a means of removing CO2 from the atmosphere. But as with fossil fuels, renewable energy sources can impose significant demands for water and land. For example, solar power mayrequire significant land to site facilities and water for cooling or to produce steam. Raising crops to produce biofuels uses arable land and water that might otherwise be available for food production. Thus, warmer and drier climate can compromise these renewable energy resources, and drought can stress water supplies creating competition between energy

  17. Complex systems approach to fire dynamics and climate change impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pueyo, S.

    2012-04-01

    I present some recent advances in complex systems theory as a contribution to understanding fire regimes and forecasting their response to a changing climate, qualitatively and quantitatively. In many regions of the world, fire sizes have been found to follow, approximately, a power-law frequency distribution. As noted by several authors, this distribution also arises in the "forest fire" model used by physicists to study mechanisms that give rise to scale invariance (the power law is a scale-invariant distribution). However, this model does not give and does not pretend to give a realistic description of fire dynamics. For example, it gives no role to weather and climate. Pueyo (2007) developed a variant of the "forest fire" model that is also simple but attempts to be more realistic. It also results into a power law, but the parameters of this distribution change through time as a function of weather and climate. Pueyo (2007) observed similar patterns of response to weather in data from boreal forest fires, and used the fitted response functions to forecast fire size distributions in a possible climate change scenario, including the upper extreme of the distribution. For some parameter values, the model in Pueyo (2007) displays a qualitatively different behavior, consisting of simple percolation. In this case, fire is virtually absent, but megafires sweep through the ecosystem a soon as environmental forcings exceed a critical threshold. Evidence gathered by Pueyo et al. (2010) suggests that this is realistic for tropical rainforests (specifically, well-conserved upland rainforests). Some climate models suggest that major tropical rainforest regions are going to become hotter and drier if climate change goes ahead unchecked, which could cause such abrupt shifts. Not all fire regimes are well described by this model. Using data from a tropical savanna region, Pueyo et al. (2010) found that the dynamics in this area do not match its assumptions, even though fire

  18. Change in Water Cycle- Important Issue on Climate Earth System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Pratik

    Change in Water Cycle- Important Issue on Climate Earth System PRATIK KUMAR SINGH1 1BALDEVRAM MIRDHA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY,JAIPUR (RAJASTHAN) ,INDIA Water is everywhere on Earth and is the only known substance that can naturally exist as a gas, liquid, and solid within the relatively small range of air temperatures and pressures found at the Earth's surface.Changes in the hydrological cycle as a consequence of climate and land use drivers are expected to play a central role in governing a vast range of environmental impacts.Earth's climate will undergo changes in response to natural variability, including solar variability, and to increasing concentrations of green house gases and aerosols.Further more, agreement is widespread that these changes may profoundly affect atmospheric water vapor concentrations, clouds and precipitation patterns.As we know that ,a warmer climate, directly leading to increased evaporation, may well accelerate the hydrological cycle, resulting in an increase in the amount of moisture circulating through the atmosphere.The Changing Water Cycle programmer will develop an integrated, quantitative understanding of the changes taking place in the global water cycle, involving all components of the earth system, improving predictions for the next few decades of regional precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, hydrological storage and fluxes.The hydrological cycle involves evaporation, transpiration, condensation, precipitation, and runoff. NASA's Aqua satellite will monitor many aspects of the role of water in the Earth's systems, and will do so at spatial and temporal scales appropriate to foster a more detailed understanding of each of the processes that contribute to the hydrological cycle. These data and the analyses of them will nurture the development and refinement of hydrological process models and a corresponding improvement in regional and global climate models, with a direct anticipated benefit of more accurate weather and

  19. Climatic controls on arid continental basin margin systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gough, Amy; Clarke, Stuart; Richards, Philip; Milodowski, Antoni

    2016-04-01

    Alluvial fans are both dominant and long-lived within continental basin margin systems. As a result, they commonly interact with a variety of depositional systems that exist at different times in the distal extent of the basin as the basin evolves. The deposits of the distal basin often cycle between those with the potential to act as good aquifers and those with the potential to act as good aquitards. The interactions between the distal deposits and the basin margin fans can have a significant impact upon basin-scale fluid flow. The fans themselves are commonly considered as relatively homogeneous, but their sedimentology is controlled by a variety of factors, including: 1) differing depositional mechanisms; 2) localised autocyclic controls; 3) geometrical and temporal interactions with deposits of the basin centre; and, 4) long-term allocyclic climatic variations. This work examines the basin margin systems of the Cutler Group sediments of the Paradox Basin, western U.S.A and presents generalised facies models for the Cutler Group alluvial fans as well as for the zone of interaction between these fans and the contemporaneous environments in the basin centre, at a variety of scales. Small-scale controls on deposition include climate, tectonics, base level and sediment supply. It has been ascertained that long-term climatic alterations were the main control on these depositional systems. Models have been constructed to highlight how both long-term and short-term alterations in the climatic regime can affect the sedimentation in the basin. These models can be applied to better understand similar, but poorly exposed, alluvial fan deposits. The alluvial fans of the Brockram Facies, northern England form part of a once-proposed site for low-level nuclear waste decommissioning. As such, it is important to understand the sedimentology, three-dimensional geometry, and the proposed connectivity of the deposits from the perspective of basin-scale fluid flow. The developed

  20. Assessment of climate change effects on Canada's National Park system.

    PubMed

    Suffling, Roger; Scott, Daniel

    2002-03-01

    To estimate the magnitude of climate change anticipated for Canada's 38 National Parks (NPs) and Park Reserves, seasonal temperature and precipitation scenarios were constructed for 2050 and 2090 using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled model (CGCM1). For each park, we assessed impacts on physical systems, species, ecosystems and people. Important, widespread changes relate to marine and freshwater hydrology, glacial balance, waning permafrost, increased natural disturbance, shorter ice season, northern and upward altitudinal species and biome shifts, and changed visitation patterns. Other changes are regional (e.g., combined East coast subsidence and sea level rise increase coastal erosion and deposition, whereas, on the Pacific coast, tectonic uplift negates sea level rise). Further predictions concern individual parks (e.g., Unique fens of Bruce Peninsular NP will migrate lakewards with lowered water levels, but structural regulation of Lake Huron for navigation and power generation would destroy the fens). Knowledge gaps are the most important findings. For example: we could not form conclusions about glacial mass balance, or its effects on rivers and fjords. Likewise, for the East Coast Labrador Current we could neither estimate temperature and salinity effects of extra iceberg formation, nor the further effects on marine food chains, and breeding park seabirds. We recommend 1) Research on specific large knowledge gaps; 2) Climate change information exchange with protected area agencies in other northern countries; and 3) incorporating climate uncertainty into park plans and management. We discuss options for a new park management philosophy in the face of massive change and uncertainty.

  1. Assessment of climate change effects on Canada's National Park system.

    PubMed

    Suffling, Roger; Scott, Daniel

    2002-03-01

    To estimate the magnitude of climate change anticipated for Canada's 38 National Parks (NPs) and Park Reserves, seasonal temperature and precipitation scenarios were constructed for 2050 and 2090 using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled model (CGCM1). For each park, we assessed impacts on physical systems, species, ecosystems and people. Important, widespread changes relate to marine and freshwater hydrology, glacial balance, waning permafrost, increased natural disturbance, shorter ice season, northern and upward altitudinal species and biome shifts, and changed visitation patterns. Other changes are regional (e.g., combined East coast subsidence and sea level rise increase coastal erosion and deposition, whereas, on the Pacific coast, tectonic uplift negates sea level rise). Further predictions concern individual parks (e.g., Unique fens of Bruce Peninsular NP will migrate lakewards with lowered water levels, but structural regulation of Lake Huron for navigation and power generation would destroy the fens). Knowledge gaps are the most important findings. For example: we could not form conclusions about glacial mass balance, or its effects on rivers and fjords. Likewise, for the East Coast Labrador Current we could neither estimate temperature and salinity effects of extra iceberg formation, nor the further effects on marine food chains, and breeding park seabirds. We recommend 1) Research on specific large knowledge gaps; 2) Climate change information exchange with protected area agencies in other northern countries; and 3) incorporating climate uncertainty into park plans and management. We discuss options for a new park management philosophy in the face of massive change and uncertainty. PMID:11878639

  2. Climates of the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries Simulated by the NCAR Climate System Model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Aiguo; Wigley, T. M. L.; Boville, B. A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Buja, L. E.

    2001-02-01

    The Climate System Model, a coupled global climate model without `flux adjustments' recently developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, was used to simulate the twentieth-century climate using historical greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing. This simulation was extended through the twenty-first century under two newly developed scenarios, a business-as-usual case (ACACIA-BAU, CO2 710 ppmv in 2100) and a CO2 stabilization case (STA550, CO2 540 ppmv in 2100). Here we compare the simulated and observed twentieth-century climate, and then describe the simulated climates for the twenty-first century. The model simulates the spatial and temporal variations of the twentieth-century climate reasonably well. These include the rapid rise in global and zonal mean surface temperatures since the late 1970s, the precipitation increases over northern mid- and high-latitude land areas, ENSO-induced precipitation anomalies, and Pole-midlatitude oscillations (such as the North Atlantic oscillation) in sea level pressure fields. The model has a cold bias (2°-6°C) in surface air temperature over land, overestimates of cloudiness (by 10%-30%) over land, and underestimates of marine stratus clouds to the west of North and South America and Africa.The projected global surface warming from the 1990s to the 2090s is 1.9°C under the BAU scenario and 1.5°C under the STA550 scenario. In both cases, the midstratosphere cools due to the increase in CO2, whereas the lower stratosphere warms in response to recovery of the ozone layer. As in other coupled models, the surface warming is largest at winter high latitudes (5.0°C from the 1990s to the 2090s) and smallest (1.0°C) over the southern oceans, and is larger over land areas than ocean areas. Globally averaged precipitation increases by 3.5% (3.0%) from the 1990s to the 2090s in the BAU (STA550) case. In the BAU case, large precipitation increases (up to 50%) occur over northern mid- and high latitudes and over

  3. Continental Heat Gain in the Global Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smerdon, J. E.; Beltrami, H.; Pollack, H. N.; Huang, S.

    2001-12-01

    Observed increases in 20th century surface-air temperatures are one consequence of a net energy flux into all major components of the Earth climate system including the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and lithosphere. Levitus et al. [2001] have estimated the heat gained by the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere as 18.2x1022 J, 6.6x1021 J, and 8.1x1021 J, respectively, over the past half-century. However the heat gain of the lithosphere via a heat flux across the solid surface of the continents (30% of the Earth's surface) was not addressed in the Levitus analysis. Here we calculate that final component of Earth's changing energy budget, using ground-surface temperature reconstructions for the continents [Huang et al., 2000]. These reconstructions have shown a warming of at least 0.5 K in the 20th century and were used to determine the flux estimates presented here. In the last half-century, the interval of time considered by Levitus et al., there was an average flux of 40 mW/m2 across the land surface into the subsurface, leading to 9.2x1021 J absorbed by the ground. This amount of heat is significantly less than the energy transferred into the oceans, but of the same magnitude as the energy absorbed by the atmosphere or cryosphere. The heat inputs into all the major components of the climate system - atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, lithosphere - conservatively sum to more than 20x1022 J during the last half-century, and reinforce the conclusion that the warming in this interval has been truly global. Huang, S., Pollack, H.N., and Shen, P.-Y. 2000. Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures. Nature. 403. 756-758 Levitus, S., Antonov, J., Wang, J., Delworth, T. L., Dixon, K. and Broccoli, A. 2001. Anthropogenic warming of the Earth's climate system. Science, 292, 267-270

  4. A New Paradigm for Assessing the Role of Agriculture in the Climate System and in Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pielke, Roger A., Sr.; Adegoke, Jimmy O.; Chase, Thomas N.; Marshall, Curtis H.; Matsui, Toshihisa; Niyogi, Dev

    2007-01-01

    This paper discusses the diverse climate forcings that impact agricultural systems, and contrasts the current paradigm of using global models downscaled to agricultural areas (a top-down approach) with a new paradigm that first assesses the vulnerability of agricultural activities to the spectrum of environmental risk including climate (a bottom-up approach). To illustrate the wide spectrum of climate forcings, regional climate forcings are presented including land-use/land-cover change and the influence of aerosols on radiative and biogeochemical fluxes and cloud/precipitation processes, as well as how these effects can be teleconnected globally. Examples are presented of the vulnerability perspective, along with a small survey of the perceived drought impacts in a local area, in which a wide range of impacts for the same precipitation deficits are found. This example illustrates why agricultural assessments of risk to climate change and variability and of other environmental risks should start with a bottom-up perspective.

  5. Effects of adjusting cropping systems on utilization efficiency of climatic resources in Northeast China under future climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Jianping; Zhao, Junfang; Xu, Yanhong; Chu, Zheng; Mu, Jia; Zhao, Qian

    Quantitatively evaluating the effects of adjusting cropping systems on the utilization efficiency of climatic resources under climate change is an important task for assessing food security in China. To understand these effects, we used daily climate variables obtained from the regional climate model RegCM3 from 1981 to 2100 under the A1B scenario and crop observations from 53 agro-meteorological experimental stations from 1981 to 2010 in Northeast China. Three one-grade zones of cropping systems were divided by heat, water, topography and crop-type, including the semi-arid areas of the northeast and northwest (III), the one crop area of warm-cool plants in semi-humid plain or hilly regions of the northeast (IV), and the two crop area in irrigated farmland in the Huanghuaihai Plain (VI). An agro-ecological zone model was used to calculate climatic potential productivities. The effects of adjusting cropping systems on climate resource utilization in Northeast China under the A1B scenario were assessed. The results indicated that from 1981 to 2100 in the III, IV and VI areas, the planting boundaries of different cropping systems in Northeast China obviously shifted toward the north and the east based on comprehensively considering the heat and precipitation resources. However, due to high temperature stress, the climatic potential productivity of spring maize was reduced in the future. Therefore, adjusting the cropping system is an effective way to improve the climatic potential productivity and climate resource utilization. Replacing the one crop in one year model (spring maize) by the two crops in one year model (winter wheat and summer maize) significantly increased the total climatic potential productivity and average utilization efficiencies. During the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, the average total climatic potential productivities of winter wheat and summer maize increased by 9.36%, 11.88% and 12.13% compared to that of spring maize

  6. Data Visualization and Analysis for Climate Studies using NASA Giovanni Online System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rui, Hualan; Leptoukh, Gregory; Lloyd, Steven

    2008-01-01

    With many global earth observation systems and missions focused on climate systems and the associated large volumes of observational data available for exploring and explaining how climate is changing and why, there is an urgent need for climate services. Giovanni, the NASA GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization ANd ANalysis Infrastructure, is a simple to use yet powerful tool for analysing these data for research on global warming and climate change, as well as for applications to weather. air quality, agriculture, and water resources,

  7. Climate Model Datasets on Earth System Grid II (ESG II)

    DOE Data Explorer

    Earth System Grid (ESG) is a project that combines the power and capacity of supercomputers, sophisticated analysis servers, and datasets on the scale of petabytes. The goal is to provide a seamless distributed environment that allows scientists in many locations to work with large-scale data, perform climate change modeling and simulation,and share results in innovative ways. Though ESG is more about the computing environment than the data, still there are several catalogs of data available at the web site that can be browsed or search. Most of the datasets are restricted to registered users, but several are open to any access.

  8. Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

  9. Impact of climate change on electricity systems and markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chandramowli, Shankar N.

    Climate change poses a serious threat to human welfare. There is now unequivocal scientific evidence that human actions are the primary cause of climate change. The principal climate forcing factor is the increasing accumulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) due to combustion of fossil fuels for transportation and electricity generation. Generation of electricity account for nearly one-third of the greenhouse (GHG) emissions globally (on a CO2-equivalent basis). Any kind of economy-wide mitigation or adaptation effort to climate change must have a prominent focus on the electric power sector. I have developed a capacity expansion model for the power sector called LP-CEM (Linear Programming based Capacity Expansion Model). LP-CEM incorporates both the long-term climate change effects and the state/regional-level macroeconomic trends. This modeling framework is demonstrated for the electric power system in the Northeast region of United States. Some of the methodological advances introduced in this research are: the use of high-resolution temperature projections in a power sector capacity expansion model; the incorporation of changes in sectoral composition of electricity demand over time; the incorporation of the effects of climate change and variability on both the demand and supply-side of power sector using parameters estimated in the literature; and an inter-model coupling link with a macroeconomic model to account for price elasticity of demand and other effects on the broader macro-economy. LP-CEM-type models can be of use to state/regional level policymakers to plan for future mitigation and adaptation measures for the electric power sector. From the simulation runs, it is shown that scenarios with climate change effects and with high economic growth rates have resulted in higher capacity addition, optimal supply costs, wholesale/retail prices and total ratepayers' costs. LP-CEM is also adapted to model the implications of the proposed Clean Power Plan

  10. Sea Ice in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, X.; Grumbine, R. W.

    2015-12-01

    Sea ice is known to play a significant role in the global climate system. For a weather or climate forecast system (CFS), it is important that the realistic distribution of sea ice is represented. Sea ice prediction is challenging; sea ice can form or melt, it can move with wind and/or ocean current; sea ice interacts with both the air above and ocean underneath, it influences by, and has impact on the air and ocean conditions. NCEP has developed coupled CFS (version 2, CFSv2) and carried out CFS reanalysis (CFSR), which includes a coupled model with the NCEP global forecast system, a land model, an ocean model (GFDL MOM4), and a sea ice model. In this work, we present the NCEP coupled model, the CFSv2 sea ice component that includes a dynamic thermodynamic sea ice model and a simple "assimilation" scheme, how sea ice has been assimilated in CFSR, the characteristics of the sea ice from CFSR and CFSv2, and the improvements of sea ice needed for future CFS (version 3) and the CFSR.

  11. Late Cretaceous Climate, Vegetation and Ocean Interactions: AN Earth System Approach to Modeling AN Extreme Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deconto, Robert Michael

    The Campanian age of the Late Cretaceous was warm, with no evidence for permanent or seasonal sea ice at high latitudes. Sea level was high, creating extensive epicontinental and shallow shelf seas. Very low meridional thermal gradients existed in the oceans and on land. Campanian (80 Ma) climate and vegetation have been simulated using GENESIS (Global ENvironmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems) Version 2.0 and EVE (Equilibrium Vegetation Ecology model), developed by the Climate Change Research section of the Climate and Global Dynamics division at NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research). GENESIS is a comprehensive Earth system model, requiring high resolution (2^circ by 2^circ) solid earth boundary condition data as input for paleoclimate simulations. Boundary condition data define certain prescribed global fields such as the distribution of land-sea-ice, topography, orographic roughness, and soil texture, as well as atmospheric chemistry, the solar constant, and orbital parameters that define the latitudinal distribution of solar insolation. A comprehensive, high resolution paleogeography has been reconstructed for the Campanian. The paleogeography, based on a new global plate tectonic model, provides the framework for the solid earth boundary conditions used in the paleoclimate simulation. Because terrestrial ecosystems influence global climate by affecting the exchange of energy, water and momentum between the land surface and the atmosphere, the distribution of global vegetation should be included in pre-Quaternary paleoclimate simulations. However, reconstructing global vegetation distributions from the fossil record is difficult. EVE predicts the equilibrium state of plant community structure as a function of climate and fundamental ecological principles. The model has been modified to reproduce a vegetation distribution based on life forms that existed in the Late Cretaceous. EVE has been applied as a fully interactive component

  12. Climate-induced tree mortality: Earth system consequences

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Adams, Henry D.; Macalady, Alison K.; Breshears, David D.; Allen, Craig D.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Saleska, Scott; Huxman, Travis E.; McDowell, Nathan G.

    2010-01-01

    One of the greatest uncertainties in global environmental change is predicting changes in feedbacks between the biosphere and the Earth system. Terrestrial ecosystems and, in particular, forests exert strong controls on the global carbon cycle and influence regional hydrology and climatology directly through water and surface energy budgets [Bonan, 2008; Chapin et al., 2008].According to new research, tree mortality associated with elevated temperatures and drought has the potential to rapidly alter forest ecosystems, potentially affecting feedbacks to the Earth system [Allen et al., 2010]. Several lines of recent research demonstrate how tree mortality rates in forests may be sensitive to climate change—particularly warming and drying. This emerging consequence of global change has important effects on Earth system processes (Figure 1).

  13. Recent trends in energy flows through the Arctic climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayer, Michael; Haimberger, Leo

    2016-04-01

    While Arctic climate change can be diagnosed in many parameters, a comprehensive assessment of long-term changes and low frequency variability in the coupled Arctic energy budget still remains challenging due to the complex physical processes involved and the lack of observations. Here we draw on strongly improved observational capabilities of the past 15 years and employ observed radiative fluxes from CERES along with state-of-the-art atmospheric as well as coupled ocean-ice reanalyses to explore recent changes in energy flows through the Arctic climate system. Various estimates of ice volume and ocean heat content trends imply that the energy imbalance of the Arctic climate system was >1 Wm-2 during the 2000-2015 period, where most of the extra heat warmed the ocean and a comparatively small fraction was used to melt sea ice. The energy imbalance was partly fed by enhanced oceanic heat transports into the Arctic, especially in the mid 2000s. Seasonal trends of net radiation show a very clear signal of the ice-albedo feedback. Stronger radiative energy input during summer means increased seasonal oceanic heat uptake and accelerated sea ice melt. In return, lower minimum sea ice extent and higher SSTs lead to enhanced heat release from the ocean during fall season. These results are consistent with modeling studies finding an enhancement of the annual cycle of surface energy exchanges in a warming Arctic. Moreover, stronger heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere in fall tend to warm the arctic boundary layer and reduce meridional temperature gradients, thereby reducing atmospheric energy transports into the polar cap. Although the observed results are a robust finding, extended high-quality datasets are needed to reliably separate trends from low frequency variability.

  14. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF CEILING RADIANT COOLING SYSTEM IN COMPOSITE CLIMATE

    SciTech Connect

    Sharma, Anuj; Mathur, Jyotirmay; Bhandari, Mahabir S

    2015-01-01

    Radiant cooling systems are proving to be an energy efficient solution due to higher thermal capacity of cooling fluid especially for the buildings that require individual zone controls and where the latent loads are moderate. The Conventional air conditioners work at very low temperature i.e.5-8 c (refrigerant evaporator inlet) while the radiant cooling systems, also referred as high temperature cooling system, work at high temperatures i.e. 14-18 c. The radiant cooling systems can maintain lower MRT (Mean Radiant Temperature) as ceiling panels maintain uniform temperature gradient inside room and provide higher human comfort. The radiant cooling systems are relatively new systems and their operation and energy savings potential are not quantified for a large number of buildings and operational parameters. Moreover, there are only limited numbers of whole building simulation studies have been carried out for these systems to have a full confidence in the capability of modelling tools to simulate these systems and predict the impact of various operating parameters. Theoretically, savings achieve due to higher temperature set point of chilled water, which reduces chiller-running time. However, conventional air conditioner runs continuously to maintain requisite temperature. In this paper, experimental study for performance evaluation of radiant cooling system carried out on system installed at Malaviya National Institute of Technology Jaipur. This paper quantifies the energy savings opportunities and effective temperature by radiant cooling system at different chilled water flow rates and temperature range. The data collected/ analysed through experimental study will used for calibration and validation of system model of building prepared in building performance simulation software. This validated model used for exploring optimized combinations of key parameters for composite climate. These optimized combinations will used in formulation of radiant cooling system

  15. Climate-driven population divergence in sex-determining systems.

    PubMed

    Pen, Ido; Uller, Tobias; Feldmeyer, Barbara; Harts, Anna; While, Geoffrey M; Wapstra, Erik

    2010-11-18

    Sex determination is a fundamental biological process, yet its mechanisms are remarkably diverse. In vertebrates, sex can be determined by inherited genetic factors or by the temperature experienced during embryonic development. However, the evolutionary causes of this diversity remain unknown. Here we show that live-bearing lizards at different climatic extremes of the species' distribution differ in their sex-determining mechanisms, with temperature-dependent sex determination in lowlands and genotypic sex determination in highlands. A theoretical model parameterized with field data accurately predicts this divergence in sex-determining systems and the consequence thereof for variation in cohort sex ratios among years. Furthermore, we show that divergent natural selection on sex determination across altitudes is caused by climatic effects on lizard life history and variation in the magnitude of between-year temperature fluctuations. Our results establish an adaptive explanation for intra-specific divergence in sex-determining systems driven by phenotypic plasticity and ecological selection, thereby providing a unifying framework for integrating the developmental, ecological and evolutionary basis for variation in vertebrate sex determination.

  16. The Mars climate for a photovoltaic system operation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Appelbaum, Joseph; Flood, Dennis J.

    1989-01-01

    Detailed information on the climatic conditions on Mars are very desirable for the design of photovoltaic systems for establishing outposts on the Martian surface. The distribution of solar insolation (global, direct and diffuse) and ambient temperature is addressed. This data are given at the Viking lander's locations and can also be used, to a first approximation, for other latitudes. The insolation data is based on measured optical depth of the Martian atmosphere derived from images taken of the sun with a special diode on the Viking cameras; and computation based on multiple wavelength and multiple scattering of the solar radiation. The ambient temperature (diurnal and yearly distribution) is based on direct measurements with a thermocouple at 1.6 m above the ground at the Viking lander locations. The insolation and ambient temperature information are short term data. New information about Mars may be forthcoming in the future from new analysis of previously collected data or from future flight missions. The Mars climate data for photovoltaic system operation will thus be updated accordingly.

  17. Aerosols, Clouds, and Precipitation as Scale Interactions in the Climate System and Controls on Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, Leo

    Clouds are major regulators of atmospheric energy flows. Their character depends on atmospheric composition, dynamics, and thermodynamic state. Clouds can assume organized structures whose scales are planetary, while processes important for determining basic properties occur on the scale of microns. The range of processes, scales, and interactions among them has precluded the development of concise theories for the role of clouds in climate, and limitations in modeling clouds in complex climate models remain among the key uncertainties in understanding and projecting climate change. The distribution function of vertical velocities (updraft speeds) in clouds is an important control on climate forcing by clouds and possibly a strong correlate with climate sensitivity. (Climate forcing refers to the change in Earth's energy balance as atmospheric composition changes, in particular, due to human activity. Climate sensitivity is defined here as the equilibrium change in globally averaged annual surface temperature as a result of doubled carbon dioxide.) Vertical velocities are central because they determine the thermodynamic environment governing phase changes of water, with both equilibrium and non-equilibrium phenomena important. The spatial and temporal spectra of relevant vertical velocities includes scales both numerically resolved by climate models and below their resolution limit. The latter implies a requirement to parameterize these smaller scale motions in models. The scale dependence of vertical velocities and emerging observational constraints on their distribution provide new opportunities for representing aerosols, clouds, and precipitation in climate models. Success in doing so could provide important breakthroughs in understanding both climate forcing and sensitivity.

  18. Building integration of photovoltaic systems in cold climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Athienitis, Andreas K.; Candanedo, José A.

    2010-06-01

    This paper presents some of the research activities on building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems developed by the Solar and Daylighting Laboratory at Concordia University. BIPV systems offer considerable advantages as compared to stand-alone PV installations. For example, BIPV systems can play a role as essential components of the building envelope. BIPV systems operate as distributed power generators using the most widely available renewable source. Since BIPV systems do not require additional space, they are especially appropriate for urban environments. BIPV/Thermal (BIPV/T) systems may use exterior air to extract useful heat from the PV panels, cooling them and thereby improving their electric performance. The recovered thermal energy can then be used for space heating and domestic hot water (DHW) heating, supporting the utilization of BIVP/T as an appropriate technology for cold climates. BIPV and BIPV/T systems are the subject of several ongoing research and demonstration projects (in both residential and commercial buildings) led by Concordia University. The concept of integrated building design and operation is at the centre of these efforts: BIPV and BIPV/T systems must be treated as part of a comprehensive strategy taking into account energy conservation measures, passive solar design, efficient lighting and HVAC systems, and integration of other renewable energy systems (solar thermal, heat pumps, etc.). Concordia Solar Laboratory performs fundamental research on heat transfer and modeling of BIPV/T systems, numerical and experimental investigations on BIPV and BIPV/T in building energy systems and non-conventional applications (building-attached greenhouses), and the design and optimization of buildings and communities.

  19. Three Connected Climate Education Interactives: Carbon Cycle, Earth System Energy Flows, and Climate Change Impacts/Adaptations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sussman, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) serves the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Island (USAPI) Region. The international entities served by PCEP are the state of Hawai'i (USA); three Freely Associated States (the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau), and three Territories (Guam, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa). Funded by NSF, the PCEP aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and focus on adaptation strategies that can increase resiliency with respect to climate change impacts. Unfortunately the vast majority of the science texts used in schools come from the US mainland and feature contexts that do not relate to the lives of Pacific island students. The curricular materials also tend to be older and to have very weak climate science content, especially with respect to tropical islands and climate change. In collaboration with public broadcast station WGBH, PCEP has developed three climate education interactives that sequentially provide an introduction to key climate change education concepts. The first in the series focuses on the global carbon cycle and connects increased atmospheric CO2 with rising global temperatures. The second analyzes Earth system energy flows to explain the key role of the increased greenhouse effect. The third focuses on four climate change impacts (higher temperatures, rising sea level, changes in precipitation, and ocean acidification), and adaptation strategies to increase resiliency of local ecosystems and human systems. While the interactives have a Pacific island visual and text perspective, they are broadly applicable for other education audiences. Learners can use the interactives to engage with the basic science concepts, and then apply the climate change impacts to their own contexts.

  20. An empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eden, Jonathan; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Hawkins, Ed; Suckling, Emma

    2016-04-01

    Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

  1. A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eden, J. M.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Hawkins, E.; Suckling, E. B.

    2015-12-01

    Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

  2. Nevada Monitoring System to Assess Climate Variability and Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Devitt, D. A.; Arnone, J.; Biondi, F.; Fenstermaker, L. F.; Saito, L.; Young, M.; Riddle, B.; Strachan, S. D.; Bird, B.; McCurdy, G.; Lyles, B. F.

    2010-12-01

    The Nevada System of Higher Education (University of Nevada Las Vegas, University of Nevada Reno and the Desert Research Institute) was awarded a multiyear NSF EPSCoR grant to support infrastructure associated with regional climate change research. The overall project is comprised of 5 components: education, cyberinfrastructure, policy, climate modeling and water/ecology. The water and ecology components are using their infrastructure funding for the assessment of climate variability and change on ecosystem function and hydrologic services. A series of 10 m tall towers are under construction and are being equipped with a wide array of sensors to monitor atmospheric, soil and plant parameters over time. The towers are located within the Mojave and Great Basin Deserts in two transects; the Mojave Desert transect is located in the southern Nevada Sheep Mountain Range and the Great Basin transect is located in the east central Nevada Snake Mountain Range. The towers are centrally positioned in well-defined vegetation zones. In southern Nevada these zones are represented by the following plant species: Creosote/Bursage (Creosotebush scrub zone); Blackbrush/Joshua Tree (Blackbrush zone); Pinyon/ Juniper (pygmy conifer zone), Ponderosa Pine (montane zone) and Bristlecone Pine (subalpine zone). The Snake Mountain transect incorporates the eastern and western valleys on both sides of the mountain range. The vegetation zones are represented by: Greasewood and mixed shrub (salt desert zone); Big Sage (sagebrush zone); Pinyon/Juniper (pygmy conifer zone); White/Douglas Fir, Ponderosa Pine and Aspen (montane zone); and Bristlecone/Limber Pine and Engelmann Spruce (subalpine zone). We are currently in the third year of funding with a goal of having the majority of towers fully operational by winter 2010. In close collaboration with our cyberinfrastructure component team, all data acquired from the transect monitoring stations will be made available to other researchers and the

  3. Autonomic and Climatic Impacts on the Dutch Coastal Groundwater System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Baaren, E. S.; Oude Essink, G. H.

    2008-12-01

    Half of the Netherlands is located below sea level and still land subsidence is taking place. As saline groundwater is found within a couple of meters below ground surface, salinization of the freshwater resources is taking place. Above mentioned process together with anthropogenic activities like groundwater exploitation and differentiated water level management is called the autonomic process. As a consequence, salt seepage affects the quality of surface water and reduces the freshwater volume necessary for drinking, environmental, industrial and agricultural purposes. Apart from this autonomic process, the Dutch delta will be jeopardized by climate change due to two effects: sea level rise and a combination of changing precipitation and evapotranspiration. Calculations with a regional density dependent 3D model for the coastal province of Zuid-Holland show increasing piezometric heads for all implemented climate scenarios due to sea level rise. This will, however, only happen at areas less than 10-20 km from the coastline or large rivers. Up to 5 km from the coast, the piezometric heads will increase with more than 50% of the sea level rise. In the inland areas, land subsidence causes decreasing piezometric heads. Salinization of the groundwater system will take place in most parts of the Dutch delta. Around the islands of Zuid-Holland, the main cause for salinization is sea level rise. The autonomic process on the other hand dominates the salinization of the polders. Due to increasing piezometric heads and salinization, the salt seepage will increase up to 20% for inland polders and up to 75% for coastal polders. The effects of the changes in recharge and evapotranspiration are small in general and depend on the climate scenario and area. Adaptive and mitigative activities like land reclamation offshore and desalinization of saline groundwater show some positive effects on the chloride concentrations of the groundwater. Nevertheless, this cannot reverse the

  4. Change in Water Cycle- Important Issue on Climate Earth System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Pratik

    Change in Water Cycle- Important Issue on Climate Earth System PRATIK KUMAR SINGH1 1BALDEVRAM MIRDHA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY,JAIPUR (RAJASTHAN) ,INDIA Water is everywhere on Earth and is the only known substance that can naturally exist as a gas, liquid, and solid within the relatively small range of air temperatures and pressures found at the Earth's surface.Changes in the hydrological cycle as a consequence of climate and land use drivers are expected to play a central role in governing a vast range of environmental impacts.Earth's climate will undergo changes in response to natural variability, including solar variability, and to increasing concentrations of green house gases and aerosols.Further more, agreement is widespread that these changes may profoundly affect atmospheric water vapor concentrations, clouds and precipitation patterns.As we know that ,a warmer climate, directly leading to increased evaporation, may well accelerate the hydrological cycle, resulting in an increase in the amount of moisture circulating through the atmosphere.The Changing Water Cycle programmer will develop an integrated, quantitative understanding of the changes taking place in the global water cycle, involving all components of the earth system, improving predictions for the next few decades of regional precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, hydrological storage and fluxes.The hydrological cycle involves evaporation, transpiration, condensation, precipitation, and runoff. NASA's Aqua satellite will monitor many aspects of the role of water in the Earth's systems, and will do so at spatial and temporal scales appropriate to foster a more detailed understanding of each of the processes that contribute to the hydrological cycle. These data and the analyses of them will nurture the development and refinement of hydrological process models and a corresponding improvement in regional and global climate models, with a direct anticipated benefit of more accurate weather and

  5. Integrated web system of geospatial data services for climate research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Georeferenced datasets are currently actively used for modeling, interpretation and forecasting of climatic and ecosystem changes on different spatial and temporal scales. Due to inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets as well as their huge size (up to tens terabytes for a single dataset) a special software supporting studies in the climate and environmental change areas is required. An approach for integrated analysis of georefernced climatological data sets based on combination of web and GIS technologies in the framework of spatial data infrastructure paradigm is presented. According to this approach a dedicated data-processing web system for integrated analysis of heterogeneous georeferenced climatological and meteorological data is being developed. It is based on Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards and involves many modern solutions such as object-oriented programming model, modular composition, and JavaScript libraries based on GeoExt library, ExtJS Framework and OpenLayers software. This work is supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, Agreement #14.613.21.0037.

  6. Climate system modeling on massively parallel systems: LDRD Project 95-ERP-47 final report

    SciTech Connect

    Mirin, A.A.; Dannevik, W.P.; Chan, B.; Duffy, P.B.; Eltgroth, P.G.; Wehner, M.F.

    1996-12-01

    Global warming, acid rain, ozone depletion, and biodiversity loss are some of the major climate-related issues presently being addressed by climate and environmental scientists. Because unexpected changes in the climate could have significant effect on our economy, it is vitally important to improve the scientific basis for understanding and predicting the earth`s climate. The impracticality of modeling the earth experimentally in the laboratory together with the fact that the model equations are highly nonlinear has created a unique and vital role for computer-based climate experiments. However, today`s computer models, when run at desired spatial and temporal resolution and physical complexity, severely overtax the capabilities of our most powerful computers. Parallel processing offers significant potential for attaining increased performance and making tractable simulations that cannot be performed today. The principal goals of this project have been to develop and demonstrate the capability to perform large-scale climate simulations on high-performance computing systems (using methodology that scales to the systems of tomorrow), and to carry out leading-edge scientific calculations using parallelized models. The demonstration platform for these studies has been the 256-processor Cray-T3D located at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Our plan was to undertake an ambitious program in optimization, proof-of-principle and scientific study. These goals have been met. We are now regularly using massively parallel processors for scientific study of the ocean and atmosphere, and preliminary parallel coupled ocean/atmosphere calculations are being carried out as well. Furthermore, our work suggests that it should be possible to develop an advanced comprehensive climate system model with performance scalable to the teraflops range. 9 refs., 3 figs.

  7. Climate Impacts of Potential Vegetation versus Current Day MODIS Land Cover in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawrence, P. J.; Chase, T. N.

    2007-12-01

    Numerous studies have used General Circulation Models to investigate the possible climate impacts that human development has had through transforming the world from natural ecosystems to one dominated by cultivation, grazing, pastures and urban landscapes. In recent climate sensitivity studies we have found that the global representation of vegetation and soils, as well as the surface hydrology in the Community Land Model (CLM) has large impacts on the climate simulated in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). Therefore to investigate the climate impacts of land cover change in CCSM we have developed new potential vegetation land surface parameters for CLM that are consistent with our current day MODIS land surface parameters. The new parameters use the potential vegetation biome mapping of Ramankutty and Foley, (1999), with the spatial heterogeneity and temporal phenology of plant functional types (PFTs) extrapolated from the MODIS parameters of current day remnant natural biomes. The potential vegetation parameters replace land use, predominantly cropping, with natural tree, shrub and grass PFTs, resulting in substantially higher leaf area index (LAI) and stem area index (SAI) over much of the world. The climate impacts of the potential vegetation parameters are assessed through climate sensitivity studies with the CCSM compared to the climate simulated with the current day MODIS parameters. The main impact of the potential vegetation on the climate simulated in CCSM is an overall cooling from increased latent heat flux, with mixed impacts from albedo changes. This is consistent with previous GCM studies where surface hydrology dominates the forcing from land cover change, but is opposite to studies where the surface albedo is the dominate change. The strong dominance of surface hydrology in changes with the potential vegetation parameters underscores the importance of providing realistic hydrology and land cover in CCSM sensitivity experiments.

  8. Fast adjustment of the climate system to changes in atmospheric CO2 and solar radiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, L.; Caldeira, K.; Bala, G.

    2011-12-01

    A key issue in the study of global climate change is the climate response to external forcing. When radiative forcing is applied to the climate system, the climate system starts to respond, resulting in changes in temperature and other fields. A new quasi-equilibrium climate state is achieved when the global mean net energy balance at the top-of-atmosphere returns to zero. The adjustment of the climate system is governed by different processes on different timescales. Within days to months, the climate system adjusts mainly to the imposed forcing and the change of land surface temperature. On longer timescale of years to centuries, when the ocean temperature starts to respond, changes in sea surface temperature exert a strong control on the adjustment of the climate system. By performing ensemble simulations using Hadley Center climate model, HadCM3L, we investigate climate system response to the applied forcing in the forms of additional atmospheric carbon dioxide and an increase in solar insolation. Both carbon dioxide and solar forcing affects the Earth's radiation balance and carbon dioxide also affects the climate system through its impact on plant stomata. We focus on the daily evolution of climate response within a timescale of one month over land and oceans. We will provide a mechanistic understanding of why increasing atmospheric CO2 causes a reduction in global-mean precipitation in the absence of sea surface temperature change. We will also discuss the adjustment of radiative forcing and the usefulness in radiative forcing as a predictor of equilibrium climate change. A discussion of the climate response from daily to millennium timescale will also be presented.

  9. Impacts on Water Management and Crop Production of Regional Cropping System Adaptation to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhong, H.; Sun, L.; Tian, Z.; Liang, Z.; Fischer, G.

    2014-12-01

    China is one of the most populous and fast developing countries, also faces a great pressure on grain production and food security. Multi-cropping system is widely applied in China to fully utilize agro-climatic resources and increase land productivity. As the heat resource keep improving under climate warming, multi-cropping system will also shifting northward, and benefit crop production. But water shortage in North China Plain will constrain the adoption of new multi-cropping system. Effectiveness of multi-cropping system adaptation to climate change will greatly depend on future hydrological change and agriculture water management. So it is necessary to quantitatively express the water demand of different multi-cropping systems under climate change. In this paper, we proposed an integrated climate-cropping system-crops adaptation framework, and specifically focused on: 1) precipitation and hydrological change under future climate change in China; 2) the best multi-cropping system and correspondent crop rotation sequence, and water demand under future agro-climatic resources; 3) attainable crop production with water constraint; and 4) future water management. In order to obtain climate projection and precipitation distribution, global climate change scenario from HADCAM3 is downscaled with regional climate model (PRECIS), historical climate data (1960-1990) was interpolated from more than 700 meteorological observation stations. The regional Agro-ecological Zone (AEZ) model is applied to simulate the best multi-cropping system and crop rotation sequence under projected climate change scenario. Finally, we use the site process-based DSSAT model to estimate attainable crop production and the water deficiency. Our findings indicate that annual land productivity may increase and China can gain benefit from climate change if multi-cropping system would be adopted. This study provides a macro-scale view of agriculture adaptation, and gives suggestions to national

  10. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    SciTech Connect

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  11. Nonlinear problems of complex natural systems: Sun and climate dynamics.

    PubMed

    Bershadskii, A

    2013-01-13

    The universal role of the nonlinear one-third subharmonic resonance mechanism in generation of strong fluctuations in complex natural dynamical systems related to global climate is discussed using wavelet regression detrended data. The role of the oceanic Rossby waves in the year-scale global temperature fluctuations and the nonlinear resonance contribution to the El Niño phenomenon have been discussed in detail. The large fluctuations in the reconstructed temperature on millennial time scales (Antarctic ice core data for the past 400,000 years) are also shown to be dominated by the one-third subharmonic resonance, presumably related to the Earth's precession effect on the energy that the intertropical regions receive from the Sun. The effects of galactic turbulence on the temperature fluctuations are also discussed. PMID:23185052

  12. Cold-Climate Solar Domestic Hot Water Systems Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Burch, J.; Salasovich, J.; Hillman, T.

    2005-11-01

    The Solar Heating and Lighting Sub-program has set the key goal to reduce the cost of saved energy [Csav, defined as (total cost, $)/(total discounted savings, kWh_thermal)] for solar domestic water heaters (SDWH) by at least 50%. To determine if this goal is attainable and prioritize R&D for cold-climate SDWH, life-cycle analyses were done with hypothetical lower-cost components in glycol, drainback, and thermosiphon systems. Balance-of-system (BOS, everything but the collector) measures included replacing metal components with polymeric versions and system simplification. With all BOS measures in place, Csav could be reduced more than 50% with a low-cost, selectively-coated, glazed polymeric collector, and slightly less than 50% with either a conventional selective metal-glass or a non-selective glazed polymer collector. The largest percent reduction in Csav comes from replacing conventional pressurized solar storage tanks and metal heat exchangers with un-pressurized polymer tanks with immersed polymer heat exchangers, which could be developed with relatively low-risk R&D.

  13. The Role of Terrestrial Snow Cover in the Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vavrus, S. J.

    2005-12-01

    Snow cover is known to exert a strong influence on the overlying atmosphere and underlying soil, but quantifying this impact is difficult. Besides its well-accepted ability to cool locally, snow cover can also force climate remotely in complex ways by inducing changes in the atmospheric circulation. Most research on the impact of snow cover has focused on the regional rather than global scale. By contrast, this study investigates the global impact of terrestrial snow cover in the present climate by comparing a pair of Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) simulations run with prognostic snow cover (control case) and with all snow cover on land eliminated (NOSNOWCOVER). In this experiment all snowfall over land was converted into liquid water-equivalent upon reaching the surface. Compared with the control run, NOSNOWCOVER produces mean-annual surface air temperatures up to 5 K higher over northern North America and Eurasia and 8 to 9 K greater in these regions during winter. The global-mean warming of 0.8 K in NOSNOWCOVER is nearly 1/3 as large as the simulated 2 x CO2 response. This pronounced surface heating dramatically increases geopotential heights throughout the troposphere: annual increases of up to 50 m occur at the 250 hPa level, along with even larger inflations during winter. Despite the large surface warming, the absence of an insulating snow pack causes soil temperatures in NOSNOWCOVER to fall throughout northern Asia and Canada, including extreme wintertime cooling of more than 20 K in Siberia and a 5 to 10o equatorward expansion of simulated permafrost. The absence of local melt-water percolation causes significantly drier soils over northern boreal regions and a consequent decrease in cloudiness. The removal of snow cover also drastically affects extreme weather in middle latitudes. Extreme cold-air outbreaks (CAOs), defined relative to the control simulation, essentially disappear in NOSNOWCOVER. The loss of CAOs appears to stem from both the local

  14. How People Actually Use Thermostats

    SciTech Connect

    Meier, Alan; Aragon, Cecilia; Hurwitz, Becky; Mujumdar, Dhawal; Peffer, Therese; Perry, Daniel; Pritoni, Marco

    2010-08-15

    Residential thermostats have been a key element in controlling heating and cooling systems for over sixty years. However, today's modern programmable thermostats (PTs) are complicated and difficult for users to understand, leading to errors in operation and wasted energy. Four separate tests of usability were conducted in preparation for a larger study. These tests included personal interviews, an on-line survey, photographing actual thermostat settings, and measurements of ability to accomplish four tasks related to effective use of a PT. The interviews revealed that many occupants used the PT as an on-off switch and most demonstrated little knowledge of how to operate it. The on-line survey found that 89% of the respondents rarely or never used the PT to set a weekday or weekend program. The photographic survey (in low income homes) found that only 30% of the PTs were actually programmed. In the usability test, we found that we could quantify the difference in usability of two PTs as measured in time to accomplish tasks. Users accomplished the tasks in consistently shorter times with the touchscreen unit than with buttons. None of these studies are representative of the entire population of users but, together, they illustrate the importance of improving user interfaces in PTs.

  15. Global political system's perspective to climate-society interactions

    SciTech Connect

    Schware, R

    1980-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to suggest some of the principal elements that might be useful in the development of a general theory of the climate-society interaction, to point out some of the pathways and linkages among political components involved in coping with climatic impacts, and to identify some obstacles, strategies, and incentives that apply to making policy choices related to climate.

  16. Enabling dynamic access to dynamic petascale Earth Systems and Environmental data collections is easy: citing and reproducing the actual data extracts used in research publications is NOT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wyborn, L. A.; Wang, J.; Si, W.; Druken, K. A.; Evans, B. J. K.; Klump, J. F.; Car, N. J.; Trenham, C.

    2015-12-01

    The National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) at the Australian National University (ANU) has collocated over 10 PB of national and international Earth Systems and Environmental data assets within a HPC facility to create the National Environmental Research Data Interoperability Platform (NERDIP). Data are replicated to, or are produced at, NCI: in many cases they are processed to higher-level data products. Individual data sets within these collections can range from multi-petabyte climate models and large volume raster arrays, down to gigabyte size, ultra-high resolution data sets. All data are quality assured to being 'published' and made accessible as services. Persistent identifiers are assigned during publishing at both the collection and data set level: the granularity and version control on persistent identifiers depend on the dataset. However, most NERDIP collections are dynamic: either new data is being appended, or else models/derivative products are being revised with new data, or changed as processing methods are improved. Further, because the data are accessible as services, researchers can log in and dynamically create user-defined subsets for specific research projects: inevitably such extracts underpin traditional 'publications'. Being able to reproduce these exact data extracts can be difficult and for the very larger data sets preserving a copy of large data extracts is out of the question. A solution is for the researcher to use provenance workflows that at a minimum capture the version of the data set used, the query and the time of extraction. In parallel, the data provider needs to implement version controls on the data and deploy tracking systems that time stamp when new data are appended, or when modifications are made to existing data and record what these changes are. Where, when and how persistent identifiers are minted on these large and dynamically changing data sets is still open to debate.

  17. Planning for climate change: the need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases

    PubMed Central

    Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

    2016-01-01

    Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies. PMID:26799810

  18. Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases.

    PubMed

    Mellor, Jonathan E; Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies.

  19. Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases.

    PubMed

    Mellor, Jonathan E; Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies. PMID:26799810

  20. Strengthening Carrying Capacity of a Water Supply System under Climate Change with the Drought Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Syujie; Liu, Tzuming; Li, Minghsu; Tung, Chingpin

    2016-04-01

    The carrying capacity of a water supply system is the maximal probable water supply amount under an acceptable risk which is related to the systematic combination of hydrology conditions, climatic conditions, and water infrastructures, for instance, reservoirs, weirs, and water treatment plants. Due to long-term imbalance of water supply and demand during the drought seasons, the carrying capacity of a water supply system may be affected gradually with more extreme climate events resulting from the climate change. To evaluate the carrying capacity of the water supply system under climate change, three major steps to build adaptation capacity under climate change are adopted, including problem identification and goal setting, current risk assessment, and future risk assessment. The carrying capacities for current climate condition and future climate condition were estimated respectively. The early warning system was taken as the effective measure to strengthen the carrying capacity for the uncertain changing climate. The water supply system of Chuoshui River basin in Taiwan is used as the case study. The system dynamics modeling software, Vensim, was used to build the water resources allocation model for Chuoshui River basin. To apply the seasonal climate forecasts released from Taiwan Central Weather Bureau (CWB) on modeling, a weather generator is adopted to generate daily weather data for the input of the hydrological component of GWLF model, to project inflows with the lead time of three months. Consequently, the water shortages with and without a drought early warning system were estimated to evaluate the effectiveness of a drought early warning system under climate change. Keywords: Climate change, Carrying capacity, Risk Assessment, Seasonal Climate Forecasts, Drought Early Warning System

  1. Pilot system on extreme climate monitoring and early warning for long range forecast in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, K.; Park, B. K.; E-hyung, P.; Gong, Y.; Kim, H. K.; Park, S.; Min, S. K.; Yoo, H. D.

    2015-12-01

    Recently, extreme weather/climate events such as heat waves, flooding/droughts etc. have been increasing in frequency and intensity under climate change over the world. Also, they can have substantial impacts on ecosystem and human society (agriculture, health, and economy) of the affected regions. According to future projections of climate, extreme weather and climate events in Korea are expected to occure more frequently with stronger intensity over the 21st century. For the better long range forecast, it is also fundamentally ruquired to develop a supporting system in terms of extreme weather and climate events including forequency and trend. In this context, the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) has recently initiated a development of the extreme climate monintoring and early warning system for long range forecast, which consists of three sub-system components; (1) Real-time climate monitoring system, (2) Ensemble prediction system, and (3) Mechanism analysis and display system for climate extremes. As a first step, a pilot system has been designed focusing on temperature extremes such heat waves and cold snaps using daily, monthly and seasonal observations and model prediction output on the global, regional and national levels. In parallel, the skills of the KMA long range prediction system are being evaluated comprehensively for weather and climate extremes, for which varous case studies are conducted to better understand the observed variations of extrem climates and responsible mechanisms and also to assess predictability of the ensemble prediction system for extremes. Details in the KMA extreme climate monitoring and early warning system will be intorduced and some preliminary results will be discussed for heat/cold waves in Korea.

  2. Summertime wind climate in Yerevan: valley wind systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gevorgyan, Artur

    2016-05-01

    1992-2014 wind climatology analysis in Yerevan is presented with particular focus given to the summertime thermally induced valley wind systems. Persistence high winds are observed in Yerevan during July-August months when the study region is strongly affected by a heat-driven plain-plateau circulation. The local valley winds arrive in Yerevan in the evening hours, generally, from 1500 to 1800 UTC, leading to rapid enhancement of wind speeds and dramatic changes in wind direction. Valley-winds significantly impact the local climate of Yerevan, which is a densely populated city. These winds moderate evening temperatures after hot and dry weather conditions observed during summertime afternoons. On the other hand, valley winds result in significantly higher nocturnal temperatures and more frequent occurrence of warm nights (tn90p) in Yerevan due to stronger turbulent mixing of boundary layer preventing strong surface cooling and temperature drop in nighttime and morning hours. The applied WRF-ARW limited area model is able to simulate the key features of the observed spatial pattern of surface winds in Armenia associated with significant terrain channeling, wind curls, etc. By contrast, ECMWF EPS global model fails to capture mesoscale and local wind systems over Armenia. However, the results of statistical verification of surface winds in Yerevan showed that substantial biases are present in WRF 18-h wind forecasts, as well as, the temporal variability of observed surface winds is not reproduced adequately in WRF-ARW model.

  3. The 21st century Museum Climatic Monitoring System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, W.-S.

    2015-08-01

    Technology has provided us work convenience and shaped our quality of life; it has enabled an unprecedented level of access to knowledge by flipping screen of a hand-held electronic device without going elsewhere but stay connected wireless communication. This kind of technology has been broadly acquired at museums in Hong Kong for preserving their valuable collections. Similar gadget was applied on the monitoring system to record climatic conditions of museum's stores and galleries. Sensors have been equipped with chips for the wireless transmission of RH/Temp, without installation of any conduit or LAN lines. Useful and important data will then be grouped into a packet format for efficient delivery. As long as the static IP address of the target workstation has been set, data can be accurately retrieved from one place to another via commercially available browsers, such as: Firefox or Internet Explorer, even on hand-held electronic devices. This paper will discuss the detail of this system, its pros and cons in comparison with the old model. After all, the new technology is highly significant in supporting the current needs and the future developments of the museum service.

  4. Climate change in the South American Monsoon System: present climate and CMIP5 projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, C.; Carvalho, L. V.

    2013-05-01

    The South American Monsoon System (SAMS) is the most important climatic feature in South America. This study focuses on the large-scale characteristics of the SAMS: seasonal amplitudes, onset and demise dates and durations. Changes in the SAMS are investigated with the gridded precipitation, CFSR reanalyses and fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations for two scenarios ("historical" and high emission representative concentration pathways "rcp8.5"). Qualitative comparisons with a previous study indicate that some CMIP5 models have significantly improved their representation of the SAMS relative to their CMIP3 versions. Some models exhibit persistent deficiencies in simulating the SAMS. The observations and CMIP5 model simulations (historical experiment) consistently show statistically significant trends indicating the SAMS has larger seasonal amplitudes, early onsets, late demises and longer durations in recent decades. Future changes in the SAMS are analyzed with six CMIP5 model simulations of the rcp8.5 high emission scenario. All simulations unquestionably show significant increases in seasonal amplitudes, early onsets and late demises of the SAMS. The simulations for this scenario project a 30% increase in the amplitude from the current level by 2045-2050. In addition, the rcp8.5 scenario projects an ensemble mean decrease of 14-day in the onset and 17-day increase in the demise date of the SAMS by 2045-2050. The results additionally indicate lack of spatial agreement in model projections of changes in total wet season precipitation over South America during 2070-100. The CMIP5 projections analyzed here suggest increases in total monsoon precipitation over southeast Brazil, Uruguay and northern Argentina

  5. Mars: A Planet with a Dynamic Climate System (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haberle, R. M.

    2013-12-01

    Mars is a well-observed planet. Since the 1960s orbiters, landers, rovers, and earth-based telescopic observations show that its climate system is dynamic. Its dynamic nature, largely the result of atmosphere-surface interactions, is most obvious in the seasonal cycles of dust, water, and carbon dioxide that define the planet's climate system. These cycles are linked through the global circulation and MGS, Odyssey, Phoenix, MER, Mars Express, MRO, and now MSL have continuously observed them at Mars for the past 16 years. Their observations show that while the seasonal cycles are largely annually repeatable, there are interannual variations. Planet-encircling dust storms, for example, are quasi-triennial and originate over a broader range of seasons and locations than previously thought. Water moves from pole-to-pole each year in a largely, but not precisely, repeatable pattern that suggests but does not demand non-polar surface reservoirs. And the seasonal CO2 polar caps grow and retreat in a very predictable way with only minor deviations from year-to-year in spite of significant differences in atmospheric dust content. These behaviors suggest a complicated but robust coupled system in which these cycles interact to produce the greatest interannual variability in the dust cycle and least variability in the CO2 cycle. The nature of these interactions is the subject of ongoing research, but clouds, both water ice and CO2 ice, now appear to play a bigger role than believed at the end of the 20th century. There may also be some long-term trends in these cycles as there is evidence from imaging data, for example, that the south polar residual cap may not be stable on decadal to centennial time scales. On even longer time scales, the discovery of as much as 5 mb global equivalent of buried CO2 ice near the south pole, the detection of vast quantities of subsurface water ice at very shallow depths in midlatitudes of both hemispheres, and the presence of remnant glacial

  6. Mars: A Planet with a Dynamic Climate System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haberle, Robert M.

    2013-01-01

    Mars is a well-observed planet. Since the 1960s orbiters, landers, rovers, and earth-based telescopic observations show that its climate system is dynamic. Its dynamic nature, largely the result of atmosphere-surface interactions, is most obvious in the seasonal cycles of dust, water, and carbon dioxide that define the planet's climate system. These cycles are linked through the global circulation and MGS, Odyssey, Phoenix, MER, Mars Express, MRO, and now MSL have continuously observed them at Mars for the past 16 years. Their observations show that while the seasonal cycles are largely annually repeatable, there are interannual variations. Planet-encircling dust storms, for example, are quasi-triennial and originate over a broader range of seasons and locations than previously thought. Water moves from pole-to-pole each year in a largely, but not precisely, repeatable pattern that suggests but does not demand non-polar surface reservoirs. And the seasonal CO2 polar caps grow and retreat in a very predictable way with only minor deviations from year-to-year in spite of significant differences in atmospheric dust content. These behaviors suggest a complicated but robust coupled system in which these cycles interact to produce the greatest interannual variability in the dust cycle and least variability in the CO2 cycle. The nature of these interactions is the subject of ongoing research, but clouds, both water ice and CO2 ice, now appear to play a bigger role than believed at the end of the 20th century. There may also be some long-term trends in these cycles as there is evidence from imaging data, for example, that the south polar residual cap may not be stable on decadal to centennial time scales. On even longer time scales, the discovery of as much as 5 mb global equivalent of buried CO2 ice near the south pole, the detection of vast quantities of subsurface water ice at very shallow depths in midlatitudes of both hemispheres, and the presence of remnant glacial

  7. Are we ready to build health systems that consider the climate?

    PubMed

    Mayhew, Susannah; Van Belle, Sara; Hammer, Michael

    2014-04-01

    At last, climate change does appear to have entered mainstream consciousness. In the scientific community, the climate change debate has shifted from focusing on establishing the truth of the claim that climate change is a reality to warming public opinion to the cause and acknowledging that climate change will have far-reaching effects on how we build, organize and manage climate-responsive social systems including health care systems. There is particular urgency to the debate for health services and systems in low income countries where some of the worst effects of climate change will be felt and where health systems are already over-stretched due to long-term lack of investment, a double burden of disease (preventive and non-communicable), a crisis in human resources and governance deficiencies. Despite the urgency, the health care systems development community appears insular in its interests and actions, and a clear leader that could coordinate the activities of different researchers, research bodies, policy makers and international organizations across relevant sectors including disaster management, climate and health care systems, has yet to emerge. This essay considers the political landscape, possible leaders and why it is necessary for health systems' professionals to move beyond the health sector in order to secure support for health and health care systems development in a post-Millennium Development Goals development framework that is defined by climate change. PMID:24366158

  8. A Test of Climate Change Refugia in Montane Meadow Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morelli, T.; Maher, S. P.; Moritz, C.; Beissinger, S. R.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change refugia, areas on the landscape buffered from recent shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns, are potentially important to understand population responses to anthropogenic climate change. With funding from the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative and the National Science Foundation, we used occupancy and genetic data to test the climate change refugia concept. Specifically, we estimated connectivity between Sierra Nevada meadows based on features such as topography and hydrology and determined the amount of change that meadows experienced during the 20th century. We then examined fine-scale population genetic structure across the California range of a montane meadow specialist, the Belding's ground squirrel (Urocitellus beldingi). We found distinctive genetic structure across the state as well as within the smaller geographic area of the central Sierra Nevada. Genetic diversity between survey sites predicted climate change refugia and population persistence supported hypothetical landscape connectivity. Our results highlight an important tool in climate change adaptation, given the limited resources available to land managers.

  9. Using climate regionalization to understand Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) precipitation performance for the Conterminous United States (CONUS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Regonda, Satish K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Rodell, Matthew

    2016-06-01

    Dynamically based seasonal forecasts are prone to systematic spatial biases due to imperfections in the underlying global climate model (GCM). This can result in low-forecast skill when the GCM misplaces teleconnections or fails to resolve geographic barriers, even if the prediction of large-scale dynamics is accurate. To characterize and address this issue, this study applies objective climate regionalization to identify discrepancies between the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) and precipitation observations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Regionalization shows that CFSv2 1 month forecasts capture the general spatial character of warm season precipitation variability but that forecast regions systematically differ from observation in some transition zones. CFSv2 predictive skill for these misclassified areas is systematically reduced relative to correctly regionalized areas and CONUS as a whole. In these incorrectly regionalized areas, higher skill can be obtained by using a regional-scale forecast in place of the local grid cell prediction.

  10. Sensitivity of proxies on non-linear interactions in the climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Johannes; Beck, Christoph; Menz, Gunter; Neuwirth, Burkhard; Ohlwein, Christian; Philipp, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    To understand natural and anthropogenic induced processes, feedbacks, trends, and dynamics in the climate system, it is essential to consider longer timescales. In this context, annually resolved tree-ring data are often used to reconstruct past temperature or precipitation variability as well as atmospheric or oceanic indices. Due to the interrelation of processes at different spatiotemporal scales in the climate system (micro, local, meso, synoptic and global scale), it is even possible to use proxies - such as tree rings - which react to micro/local climate conditions, to reconstruct phenomena on the global scale of the climate system such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The dependencies between tree-ring chronologies and climate parameters are not always stable over time and trees growing under temperate climate conditions are often sensitive to different climate parameters. Consequently, for climate reconstructions trees are often used which grow under extreme environmental conditions. We utilized nine weather-/circulation-type classifications in combination with two tree-ring datasets to assess weather-type sensitivity across the Northern Atlantic region. Our results demonstrate that nonstationarities in superordinate space and time scales of the climate system (here synoptic to global scale NAO, AMO) can affect the climate sensitivity of tree-rings for phenomena in subordinate levels of the climate system (here weather-types, meso- to synoptic scale). This scale bias effect, has the capability to impact even large multiproxy networks and the ability of these networks to provide information about past climate conditions. The results - recently published in Scientific Reports - indicate that more research is needed to understand how processes or phenomena on different space-/time scales of the climate system interact. They show that the role of non-linear interactions in the climate system which can lead to

  11. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

    SciTech Connect

    Gutowski, William J.

    2013-02-07

    The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

  12. Computing and Systems Applied in Support of Coordinated Energy, Environmental, and Climate Planning

    EPA Science Inventory

    This talk focuses on how Dr. Loughlin is applying Computing and Systems models, tools and methods to more fully understand the linkages among energy systems, environmental quality, and climate change. Dr. Loughlin will highlight recent and ongoing research activities, including: ...

  13. Analyzing Global Climate System Using Graph Based Anomaly Detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, K.; Agrawal, S.; Atluri, G.; Liess, S.; Steinbach, M.; Kumar, V.

    2014-12-01

    Climate networks have been studied for understanding complex relationships between different spatial locations such as community structures and teleconnections. Analysis of time-evolving climate networks reveals changes that occur in those relationships over time and can provide insights for discovering new and complex climate phenomena. We have recently developed a novel data mining technique to discover anomalous relationships from dynamic climate networks. The algorithms efficiently identifies anomalous changes in relationships that cause significant structural changes in the climate network from one time instance to the next. Using this technique we investigated the presence of anomalies in precipitation networks that were constructed based on monthly averages of precipitation recorded at .5 degree resolution during the time period 1982 to 2002. The precipitation network consisted of 10-nearest neighbor graphs for every month's data. Preliminary results on this data set indicate that we were able to discover several anomalies that have been verified to be related to or as the outcome of well known climate phenomena. For instance, one such set of anomalies corresponds to transition from January 1994 (normal conditions) to January 1995 (El-Nino conditions) and include events like worst droughts of the 20th century in Australian Plains, very high rainfall in southeast Asian islands, and drought-like conditions in Peru, Chile, and eastern equatorial Africa during that time period. We plan to further apply our technique to networks constructed out of different climate variables such as sea-level pressure, surface air temperature, wind velocity, 500 geo-potential height etc. at different resolutions. Using this method we hope to develop deeper insights regarding the interactions of multiple climate variables globally over time, which might lead to discovery of previously unknown climate phenomena involving heterogeneous data sources.

  14. Climate and the erosional efficiency of fluvial systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, M. W.; Whipple, K. X.; Dibiase, R. A.; Heimsath, A. M.

    2010-12-01

    Climate is a key driver of surface processes on Earth. Nevertheless, quantifying the climatic control on erosion rates over mountain building timescales has proven to be a difficult problem to untangle. In fact, some recent attempts to address this problem using cosmogenic radionuclide-derived erosion rates suggest very little climatic control on erosion. If this result is robust, it would have serious implications on proposed feedbacks among climate and tectonics. Here, we address two factors that may be confounding detection of climatic controls on erosion rates: (1) difficulty isolating climate from other variables in natural settings (i.e. topography, rock strength); (2) choosing appropriate climate metrics for comparison (e.g. temperature, precipitation, runoff, variability). A recent study in the San Gabriel Mountains, CA (SGM) provides a template to account for the first-order, topographic control on erosion by measuring millennial-scale erosion rates (10Be in river sands) across a gradient in relief. Building off of this work, we report new data for two other landscapes, Sierra San Pedro Mártir, MX (SSPM) and Sierra Nombre de Dios, HN (SNdD), that show similar gradients of relief and similar lithologies (granitoids), but that lie in dramatically different climate regimes (desert to rainforest). By comparing the functional relationship between relief and erosion, we are able to quantify differences in erosional efficiency due to climate. By re-casting the question in terms of how climate controls erosional efficiency, we can also better evaluate our choice of appropriate climate metrics for comparison among landscapes. For instance, theory suggests that discharge variability may rival the importance of annual climate normals (e.g. mean annual precipitation, mean annual temperature) in setting erosional efficiency by affecting the distribution of extreme events. This requires the use of more sophisticated stream erosion models that account for at least the

  15. Assembling Large, Multi-Sensor Climate Datasets Using the SciFlo Grid Workflow System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, B. D.; Manipon, G.; Xing, Z.; Fetzer, E.

    2008-12-01

    NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is the world's most ambitious facility for studying global climate change. The mandate now is to combine measurements from the instruments on the A-Train platforms (AIRS, AMSR-E, MODIS, MISR, MLS, and CloudSat) and other Earth probes to enable large-scale studies of climate change over periods of years to decades. However, moving from predominantly single-instrument studies to a multi-sensor, measurement-based model for long-duration analysis of important climate variables presents serious challenges for large-scale data mining and data fusion. For example, one might want to compare temperature and water vapor retrievals from one instrument (AIRS) to another instrument (MODIS), and to a model (ECMWF), stratify the comparisons using a classification of the cloud scenes from CloudSat, and repeat the entire analysis over years of AIRS data. To perform such an analysis, one must discover & access multiple datasets from remote sites, find the space/time matchups between instruments swaths and model grids, understand the quality flags and uncertainties for retrieved physical variables, and assemble merged datasets for further scientific and statistical analysis. To meet these large-scale challenges, we are utilizing a Grid computing and dataflow framework, named SciFlo, in which we are deploying a set of versatile and reusable operators for data query, access, subsetting, co-registration, mining, fusion, and advanced statistical analysis. SciFlo is a semantically-enabled ("smart") Grid Workflow system that ties together a peer-to-peer network of computers into an efficient engine for distributed computation. The SciFlo workflow engine enables scientists to do multi-instrument Earth Science by assembling remotely-invokable Web Services (SOAP or http GET URLs), native executables, command-line scripts, and Python codes into a distributed computing flow. A scientist visually authors the graph of operation in the VizFlow GUI, or uses a

  16. Assembling Large, Multi-Sensor Climate Datasets Using the SciFlo Grid Workflow System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, B.; Manipon, G.; Xing, Z.; Fetzer, E.

    2009-04-01

    NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is an ambitious facility for studying global climate change. The mandate now is to combine measurements from the instruments on the "A-Train" platforms (AIRS, AMSR-E, MODIS, MISR, MLS, and CloudSat) and other Earth probes to enable large-scale studies of climate change over periods of years to decades. However, moving from predominantly single-instrument studies to a multi-sensor, measurement-based model for long-duration analysis of important climate variables presents serious challenges for large-scale data mining and data fusion. For example, one might want to compare temperature and water vapor retrievals from one instrument (AIRS) to another instrument (MODIS), and to a model (ECMWF), stratify the comparisons using a classification of the "cloud scenes" from CloudSat, and repeat the entire analysis over years of AIRS data. To perform such an analysis, one must discover & access multiple datasets from remote sites, find the space/time "matchups" between instruments swaths and model grids, understand the quality flags and uncertainties for retrieved physical variables, assemble merged datasets, and compute fused products for further scientific and statistical analysis. To meet these large-scale challenges, we are utilizing a Grid computing and dataflow framework, named SciFlo, in which we are deploying a set of versatile and reusable operators for data query, access, subsetting, co-registration, mining, fusion, and advanced statistical analysis. SciFlo is a semantically-enabled ("smart") Grid Workflow system that ties together a peer-to-peer network of computers into an efficient engine for distributed computation. The SciFlo workflow engine enables scientists to do multi-instrument Earth Science by assembling remotely-invokable Web Services (SOAP or http GET URLs), native executables, command-line scripts, and Python codes into a distributed computing flow. A scientist visually authors the graph of operation in the Viz

  17. Realizing actual feedback control of complex network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tu, Chengyi; Cheng, Yuhua

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, we present the concept of feedbackability and how to identify the Minimum Feedbackability Set of an arbitrary complex directed network. Furthermore, we design an estimator and a feedback controller accessing one MFS to realize actual feedback control, i.e. control the system to our desired state according to the estimated system internal state from the output of estimator. Last but not least, we perform numerical simulations of a small linear time-invariant dynamics network and a real simple food network to verify the theoretical results. The framework presented here could make an arbitrary complex directed network realize actual feedback control and deepen our understanding of complex systems.

  18. Climate Change Education on Public Health Consequences and Impacts to the Human System - An Interdisciplinary Approach to Promoting Climate Literacy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matiella Novak, M.; Paxton, L. J.

    2012-12-01

    - someone not like you. On the other hand, public health impacts are felt by millions and lead to very high costs and those impacts are something with which most people have direct experiences. We will discuss, for example, how climate change can be framed as a cost/benefit problem by looking at the long term costs of increase in disease and illness such as the startling trends in childhood asthma. Changes in water availability, and water and air quality, will result from a warming climate, with measureable consequences for public health: disease spread, food and water security, respiratory health, etc. By integrating this information with education efforts, society, educators and decision makers will have a better understanding of how climate change affects the human system, and what decisions can be made at the individual and community levels to mitigate and adapt to climate change. We will show how this can be achieved.

  19. System and Method for Providing a Climate Data Analytic Services Application Programming Interface Distribution Package

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schnase, John L. (Inventor); Duffy, Daniel Q. (Inventor); Tamkin, Glenn S. (Inventor)

    2016-01-01

    A system, method and computer-readable storage devices for providing a climate data analytic services application programming interface distribution package. The example system can provide various components. The system provides a climate data analytic services application programming interface library that enables software applications running on a client device to invoke the capabilities of a climate data analytic service. The system provides a command-line interface that provides a means of interacting with a climate data analytic service by issuing commands directly to the system's server interface. The system provides sample programs that call on the capabilities of the application programming interface library and can be used as templates for the construction of new client applications. The system can also provide test utilities, build utilities, service integration utilities, and documentation.

  20. Satellite Observation Systems for Polar Climate Change Studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Comiso, Josefino C.

    2012-01-01

    The key observational tools for detecting large scale changes of various parameters in the polar regions have been satellite sensors. The sensors include passive and active satellite systems in the visible, infrared and microwave frequencies. The monitoring started with Tiros and Nimbus research satellites series in the 1970s but during the period, not much data was stored digitally because of limitations and cost of the needed storage systems. Continuous global data came about starting with the launch of ocean color, passive microwave, and thermal infrared sensors on board Nimbus-7 and Synthetic Aperture Radar, Radar Altimeter and Scatterometer on board SeaSat satellite both launched in 1978. The Nimbus-7 lasted longer than expected and provided about 9 years of useful data while SeaSat quit working after 3 months but provided very useful data that became the baseline for follow-up systems with similar capabilities. Over the years, many new sensors were launched, some from Japan Aeronautics and Space Agency (JAXA), some from the European Space Agency (ESA) and more recently, from RuSSia, China, Korea, Canada and India. For polar studies, among the most useful sensors has been the passive microwave sensor which provides day/night and almost all weather observation of the surface. The sensor provide sea surface temperature, precipitation, wind, water vapor and sea ice concentration data that have been very useful in monitoring the climate of the region. More than 30 years of such data are now available, starting with the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on board the Nimbus-7, the Special Scanning Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) on board a Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on board the EOS/ Aqua satellite. The techniques that have been developed to derive geophysical parameters from data provided by these and other sensors and associated instrumental and algorithm errors and validation techniques

  1. The actual goals of geoethics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nemec, Vaclav

    2014-05-01

    The most actual goals of geoethics have been formulated as results of the International Conference on Geoethics (October 2013) held at the geoethics birth-place Pribram (Czech Republic): In the sphere of education and public enlightenment an appropriate needed minimum know how of Earth sciences should be intensively promoted together with cultivating ethical way of thinking and acting for the sustainable well-being of the society. The actual activities of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Changes are not sustainable with the existing knowledge of the Earth sciences (as presented in the results of the 33rd and 34th International Geological Congresses). This knowledge should be incorporated into any further work of the IPCC. In the sphere of legislation in a large international co-operation following steps are needed: - to re-formulate the term of a "false alarm" and its legal consequences, - to demand very consequently the needed evaluation of existing risks, - to solve problems of rights of individuals and minorities in cases of the optimum use of mineral resources and of the optimum protection of the local population against emergency dangers and disasters; common good (well-being) must be considered as the priority when solving ethical dilemmas. The precaution principle should be applied in any decision making process. Earth scientists presenting their expert opinions are not exempted from civil, administrative or even criminal liabilities. Details must be established by national law and jurisprudence. The well known case of the L'Aquila earthquake (2009) should serve as a serious warning because of the proven misuse of geoethics for protecting top Italian seismologists responsible and sentenced for their inadequate superficial behaviour causing lot of human victims. Another recent scandal with the Himalayan fossil fraud will be also documented. A support is needed for any effort to analyze and to disclose the problems of the deformation of the contemporary

  2. A nonlinear impulse response model of the coupled carbon cycle-climate system (NICCS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hooss, G.; Voss, R.; Hasselmann, K.; Maier-Reimer, E.; Joos, F.

    Impulse-response-function (IRF) models are designed for applications requiring a large number of climate change simulations, such as multi-scenario climate impact studies or cost-benefit integrated-assessment studies. The models apply linear response theory to reproduce the characteristics of the climate response to external forcing computed with sophisticated state-of-the-art climate models like general circulation models of the physical ocean-atmosphere system and three-dimensional oceanic-plus-terrestrial carbon cycle models. Although highly computer efficient, IRF models are nonetheless capable of reproducing the full set of climate-change information generated by the complex models against which they are calibrated. While limited in principle to the linear response regime (less than about 3∘C global-mean temperature change), the applicability of the IRF model presented has been extended into the nonlinear domain through explicit treatment of the climate system's dominant nonlinearities: CO2 chemistry in ocean water, CO2 fertilization of land biota, and sublinear radiative forcing. The resultant nonlinear impulse-response model of the coupled carbon cycle-climate system (NICCS) computes the temporal evolution of spatial patterns of climate change for four climate variables of particular relevance for climate impact studies: near-surface temperature, cloud cover, precipitation, and sea level. The space-time response characteristics of the model are derived from an EOF analysis of a transient 850-year greenhouse warming simulation with the Hamburg atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM3-LSG and a similar response experiment with the Hamburg carbon cycle model HAMOCC. The model is applied to two long-term CO2 emission scenarios, demonstrating that the use of all currently estimated fossil fuel resources would carry the Earth's climate far beyond the range of climate change for which reliable quantitative predictions are possible today, and that even a

  3. The aerosol-monsoon climate system of Asia: A new paradigm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2016-02-01

    This commentary is based on a series of recent lectures on aerosol-monsoon interactions I gave at the Beijing Normal University in August 2015. A main theme of the lectures is on a new paradigm of "An Aerosol-Monsoon-Climate-System", which posits that aerosol, like rainfall, cloud, and wind, is an integral component of the monsoon climate system, influencing monsoon weather and climate on all timescales. Here, salient issues discussed in my lectures and my personal perspective regarding interactions between atmospheric dynamics and aerosols from both natural and anthropogenic sources are summarized. My hope is that under this new paradigm, we can break down traditional disciplinary barriers, advance a deeper understanding of weather and climate in monsoon regions, as well as entrain a new generation of geoscientists to strive for a sustainable future for one of the most complex and challenging human-natural climate sub-system of the earth.

  4. Progress Report 2008: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    SciTech Connect

    Drake, John B; Worley, Patrick H; Hoffman, Forrest M; Jones, Phil

    2009-01-01

    This project employs multi-disciplinary teams to accelerate development of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), based at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). A consortium of eight Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories collaborate with NCAR and the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). The laboratories are Argonne (ANL), Brookhaven (BNL) Los Alamos (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore (LLNL), Oak Ridge (ORNL), Pacific Northwest (PNNL) and Sandia (SNL). The work plan focuses on scalablity for petascale computation and extensibility to a more comprehensive earth system model. Our stated goal is to support the DOE mission in climate change research by helping ... To determine the range of possible climate changes over the 21st century and beyond through simulations using a more accurate climate system model that includes the full range of human and natural climate feedbacks with increased realism and spatial resolution.

  5. Building Climate Resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: A Role for Earth System Sciences

    PubMed Central

    Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Simane, Belay; Habib, Shahid; Anderson, Martha C.; Ozdogan, Mutlu; Foltz, Jeremy D.

    2012-01-01

    The Blue Nile (Abay) Highlands of Ethiopia are characterized by significant interannual climate variability, complex topography and associated local climate contrasts, erosive rains and erodible soils, and intense land pressure due to an increasing population and an economy that is almost entirely dependent on smallholder, low-input agriculture. As a result, these highland zones are highly vulnerable to negative impacts of climate variability. As patterns of variability and precipitation intensity alter under anthropogenic climate change, there is concern that this vulnerability will increase, threatening economic development and food security in the region. In order to overcome these challenges and to enhance sustainable development in the context of climate change, it is necessary to establish climate resilient development strategies that are informed by best-available Earth System Science (ESS) information. This requirement is complicated by the fact that climate projections for the Abay Highlands contain significant and perhaps irreducible uncertainties. A critical challenge for ESS, then, is to generate and to communicate meaningful information for climate resilient development in the context of a highly uncertain climate forecast. Here we report on a framework for applying ESS to climate resilient development in the Abay Highlands, with a focus on the challenge of reducing land degradation. PMID:22470302

  6. Building climate resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: a role for Earth system sciences.

    PubMed

    Zaitchik, Benjamin F; Simane, Belay; Habib, Shahid; Anderson, Martha C; Ozdogan, Mutlu; Foltz, Jeremy D

    2012-02-01

    The Blue Nile (Abay) Highlands of Ethiopia are characterized by significant interannual climate variability, complex topography and associated local climate contrasts, erosive rains and erodible soils, and intense land pressure due to an increasing population and an economy that is almost entirely dependent on smallholder, low-input agriculture. As a result, these highland zones are highly vulnerable to negative impacts of climate variability. As patterns of variability and precipitation intensity alter under anthropogenic climate change, there is concern that this vulnerability will increase, threatening economic development and food security in the region. In order to overcome these challenges and to enhance sustainable development in the context of climate change, it is necessary to establish climate resilient development strategies that are informed by best-available Earth System Science (ESS) information. This requirement is complicated by the fact that climate projections for the Abay Highlands contain significant and perhaps irreducible uncertainties. A critical challenge for ESS, then, is to generate and to communicate meaningful information for climate resilient development in the context of a highly uncertain climate forecast. Here we report on a framework for applying ESS to climate resilient development in the Abay Highlands, with a focus on the challenge of reducing land degradation.

  7. Simulation of Climate Change Impacts on Wheat-Fallow Cropping Systems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agricultural system simulation models are predictive tools for assessing climate change impacts on crop production. In this study, RZWQM2 that contains the DSSAT 4.0-CERES model was evaluated for simulating climate change impacts on wheat growth. The model was calibrated and validated using data fro...

  8. Patterns and cycles in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis wind and wave data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stopa, Justin E.; Cheung, Kwok Fai; Tolman, Hendrik L.; Chawla, Arun

    2013-10-01

    The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and the corresponding WAVEWATCH III hindcast datasets allow climatic interpretation of winds as well as their impacts on waves. In this paper, we analyze the continuous 31 years of global wind and wave data in terms of climate patterns and cycles. Quarterly averages and percentile plots of the wind speed and wave height illustrate the seasonal pattern and distributions of extreme events, while the annual and inter-annual variability demonstrates the wind and wave climate. The data is correlated with published indices of known atmospheric cycles. The datasets show good correspondence with the Arctic Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation, El Nino Southern Oscillation, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation in both the wind and wave fields. The results compare well with published climate studies on regional scales and provide important linkage to the global wave climate characteristics.

  9. Recent Advances in Regional Climate System Modeling and ClimateChange Analyses of Extreme Heat

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, Norman L.

    2004-09-24

    During the period May 2003 to May 2004, there were two CEC/PIER funded primary research activities by the Atmosphere and Ocean Sciences Group/Earth Science Division at LBNL. These activities are the implementation and testing of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model (CLM) into MM5, and the analysis of extreme heat days under a new set of climate simulations. The new version of MM5,MM5-CLM, has been tested for a 90 day snowmelt period in the northwestern U.S. Results show that this new code upgrade, as compared to the MM5-NOAH, has improved snowmelt, temperature, and precipitation when compared to observations. These are due in part to a subgrid scheme,advanced snow processes, and advanced vegetation. The climate change analysis is the upper and lower IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios, representing fossil fuel intensive and energy conserving future emission scenarios, and medium and low sensitivity Global Climate Models. Results indicate that California cities will see increases in the number of heat wave and temperature threshold days from two to six times.These results may be viewed as potential outcomes based on today's decisions on emissions.

  10. Developing a Pilot Indicator System for U.S. Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A.; Arndt, D. S.; Pouyat, R. V.; Aicher, R.; Lloyd, A.; Malik, O.; Reyes, J. J.; Anderson, S. M.

    2014-12-01

    The National Climate Indicators System is being developed as part of sustained assessment activities associated with the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). The NCA is conducted under the U.S. Global Change Research Program, which is required to provide a report to Congress every 4 years. The National Climate Indicators System is a set of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information. The Indicators System will address questions important to multiple audiences including (but not limited to) nonscientists (e.g., Congress, U.S. citizens, students), resource managers, and state and municipal planners in a conceptually unified framework. The physical, ecological, and societal indicators will be scalable, to provide information for indicators at national, state, regional, and local scales. The pilot system is a test of the Indicators System for evaluation purposes to assess the readiness of indicators and usability of the system. The National Climate Indicator System has developed a pilot given the recommendations of over 150+ scientists and practitioners and 14 multidisciplinary teams, including, for example, greenhouse gases, forests, grasslands, water, human health, oceans and coasts, and energy. The pilot system of indicators includes approximately 20 indicators that are already developed, scientifically vetted, and implementable immediately. Specifically, the pilot indicators include a small set of global climate context indicators, which provide context for the national or regional indicators, as well as a set of nationally important U.S. natural system and human sector indicators. The purpose of the pilot is to work with stakeholder communities to evaluate the system and the individual indicators using a robust portfolio of evaluation studies, which

  11. Integrated analysis of environmental drivers, spatiotemporal variability and rates of contemporary chemical and mechanical fluvial denudation in selected glacierized and non-glacierized cold climate catchment systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beylich, Achim A.

    2016-04-01

    There is, by today, an impressive number of quantitative process geomorphic studies presenting contemporary chemical or mechanical fluvial denudation rates from a wide range of cold climate catchment geo-systems worldwide. However, the number of quantitative studies that actually considers and includes all three main components of fluvial transport, i.e. solute transport, suspended sediment transport and bedload transport, is actually rather small. Most of the existing studies include one or, at best, two of these main components. At the same time, it is generally accepted that a knowledge of the quantitative shares of fluvial solute, suspended sediment and bedload transport of the total fluvial transport, together with detailed information on sediment sources and sediment storage, is needed for the reliable quantitative construction and understanding of present-day sedimentary budgets. In this contribution, results from longer-term process geomorphic work conducted in selected glacierized and non-glacierized high-latitude and high-altitude cold climate catchment systems in Norway, Iceland, Sweden and Finland are compared. The size of the six studied catchment geo-systems ranges from 7.0 km2 to 79.5 km2. Contemporary chemical and mechanical fluvial denudation rates measured in the defined catchment systems with different cold climates, varying degrees of glacier coverage, different lithologies and general sediment availabilities, different catchment morphometries, and varying degrees of vegetation cover are presented. By direct comparisons between the six different catchments environmental controls of the computed annual denudation rates are detected and the spatial variability of the contemporary chemical and mechanical fluvial denudation rates found across the different cold climate catchment systems is explained. Annual fluvial denudation rates generally increase with increasing topographic relief, increasing mean slope angles, increasing annual precipitation

  12. Emergent dynamics of the climate-economy system in the Anthropocene.

    PubMed

    Kellie-Smith, Owen; Cox, Peter M

    2011-03-13

    Global CO(2) emissions are understood to be the largest contributor to anthropogenic climate change, and have, to date, been highly correlated with economic output. However, there is likely to be a negative feedback between climate change and human wealth: economic growth is typically associated with an increase in CO(2) emissions and global warming, but the resulting climate change may lead to damages that suppress economic growth. This climate-economy feedback is assumed to be weak in standard climate change assessments. When the feedback is incorporated in a transparently simple model it reveals possible emergent behaviour in the coupled climate-economy system. Formulae are derived for the critical rates of growth of global CO(2) emissions that cause damped or long-term boom-bust oscillations in human wealth, thereby preventing a soft landing of the climate-economy system. On the basis of this model, historical rates of economic growth and decarbonization appear to put the climate-economy system in a potentially damaging oscillatory regime.

  13. Co-Adapting Water Demand and Supply to Changing Climate in Agricultural Water Systems, A Case Study in Northern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giuliani, M.; Li, Y.; Mainardi, M.; Arias Munoz, C.; Castelletti, A.; Gandolfi, C.

    2013-12-01

    model is managed by a Web GIS to support the visualization of the results and the participation of the stakeholders. The activation of the information loop allows farmers to decide the most profitable crop option on the basis of an expected water supply. Knowing the farmers decisions, the water supply strategy (i.e., the regulation of Lake Como) is then optimized with respect to the actual irrigation demand of the crops. By recursively running this procedure, the farmers and the water manager will exchange information until the system converges to an equilibrium. Our results show that the proposed co-adaptation loop is able to enhance the efficiency of agricultural water management practices and foster crop production. Moreover, the analysis of the co-evolution of the two systems under change allows to estimate the potential for the approach to mitigate climate change adverse impacts.

  14. Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

    SciTech Connect

    Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Brown, Theresa Jean; Cai, Ximing; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton; Constantine, Paul G; Dalbey, Keith R.; Debusschere, Bert J.; Fields, Richard; Hart, David Blaine; Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna; Kerstein, Alan R.; Levy, Michael; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Najm, Habib N.; Overfelt, James Robert; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Peplinski, William J.; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Stubblefield, William Anthony; Taylor, Mark A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Villa, Daniel L.

    2012-10-01

    Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

  15. The Role of Snow and Ice in the Climate System

    SciTech Connect

    Barry, Roger G.

    2007-12-19

    Global snow and ice cover (the 'cryosphere') plays a major role in global climate and hydrology through a range of complex interactions and feedbacks, the best known of which is the ice - albedo feedback. Snow and ice cover undergo marked seasonal and long term changes in extent and thickness. The perennial elements - the major ice sheets and permafrost - play a role in present-day regional and local climate and hydrology, but the large seasonal variations in snow cover and sea ice are of importance on continental to hemispheric scales. The characteristics of these variations, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, and evidence for recent trends in snow and ice extent are discussed.

  16. The Role of Snow and Ice in the Climate System

    ScienceCinema

    Barry, Roger G.

    2016-07-12

    Global snow and ice cover (the 'cryosphere') plays a major role in global climate and hydrology through a range of complex interactions and feedbacks, the best known of which is the ice - albedo feedback. Snow and ice cover undergo marked seasonal and long term changes in extent and thickness. The perennial elements - the major ice sheets and permafrost - play a role in present-day regional and local climate and hydrology, but the large seasonal variations in snow cover and sea ice are of importance on continental to hemispheric scales. The characteristics of these variations, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, and evidence for recent trends in snow and ice extent are discussed.

  17. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Lettenmaier, Dennis P

    2013-04-08

    Primary activities are reported in these areas: climate system component studies via one-way coupling experiments; development of the Regional Arctic Climate System Model (RACM); and physical feedback studies focusing on changes in Arctic sea ice using the fully coupled model.

  18. Climate and energy: A comparative assessment of the Satellite Power System (SPS) and alternative energy technologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kellermeyer, D. A.

    1980-01-01

    The potential effects of five energy technologies on global, regional, and local climate are assessed. The energy technologies examined are coal combustion, light water nuclear reactors, satellite power systems, terrestrial photovoltaics, and fusion. The assessment focuses on waste heat rejection, production of particulate aerosols, and emission of carbon dioxide. The current state of climate modeling and long range climate prediction introduces considerable uncertainty into the assessment, but it may be concluded that waste heat will not produce detectable changes in global climate until world energy use increases 100fold, although minor effects on local weather may occur now; that carbon dioxide from coal combustion in the US alone accounts for about 30% of the current increase in global atmospheric CO2 which may, by about 2050 increase world temperature 2to 3 C, with pronounced effects on world climate; and that rocket exhaust from numerous launches during construction of a satellite power system may affect the upper atmosphere, with uncertain consequences.

  19. Climate Change and Global Food Security: Food Access, Utilization, and the US Food System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, M. E.; Antle, J. M.; Backlund, P. W.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Walsh, M.; Ammann, C. M.; Attavanich, W.; Barrett, C. B.; Bellemare, M. F.; Dancheck, V.; Funk, C.; Grace, K.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Jiang, H.; Maletta, H.; Mata, T.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Ojima, D. S.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.

    2015-12-01

    This paper will summarize results from the USDA report entitled 'Climate change, Global Food Security and the U.S. Food system'. The report focuses on the impact of climate change on global food security, defined as "when all people at all times have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life". The assessment brought together authors and contributors from twenty federal, academic, nongovernmental, intergovernmental, and private organizations in four countries to identify climate change effects on food security through 2100, and analyze the U.S.'s likely connections with that world. This talk will describe how climate change will likely affect food access and food utilization, and summarize how the U.S. food system contributes to global food security, and will be affected by climate change.

  20. Sensitivity of proxies on non-linear interactions in the climate system

    PubMed Central

    Schultz, Johannes A.; Beck, Christoph; Menz, Gunter; Neuwirth, Burkhard; Ohlwein, Christian; Philipp, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Recent climate change is affecting the earth system to an unprecedented extent and intensity and has the potential to cause severe ecological and socioeconomic consequences. To understand natural and anthropogenic induced processes, feedbacks, trends, and dynamics in the climate system, it is also essential to consider longer timescales. In this context, annually resolved tree-ring data are often used to reconstruct past temperature or precipitation variability as well as atmospheric or oceanic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The aim of this study is to assess weather-type sensitivity across the Northern Atlantic region based on two tree-ring width networks. Our results indicate that nonstationarities in superordinate space and time scales of the climate system (here synoptic- to global scale, NAO, AMO) can affect the climate sensitivity of tree-rings in subordinate levels of the system (here meso- to synoptic scale, weather-types). This scale bias effect has the capability to impact even large multiproxy networks and the ability of these networks to provide information about past climate conditions. To avoid scale biases in climate reconstructions, interdependencies between the different scales in the climate system must be considered, especially internal ocean/atmosphere dynamics. PMID:26686001

  1. Sensitivity of proxies on non-linear interactions in the climate system.

    PubMed

    Schultz, Johannes A; Beck, Christoph; Menz, Gunter; Neuwirth, Burkhard; Ohlwein, Christian; Philipp, Andreas

    2015-12-21

    Recent climate change is affecting the earth system to an unprecedented extent and intensity and has the potential to cause severe ecological and socioeconomic consequences. To understand natural and anthropogenic induced processes, feedbacks, trends, and dynamics in the climate system, it is also essential to consider longer timescales. In this context, annually resolved tree-ring data are often used to reconstruct past temperature or precipitation variability as well as atmospheric or oceanic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The aim of this study is to assess weather-type sensitivity across the Northern Atlantic region based on two tree-ring width networks. Our results indicate that nonstationarities in superordinate space and time scales of the climate system (here synoptic- to global scale, NAO, AMO) can affect the climate sensitivity of tree-rings in subordinate levels of the system (here meso- to synoptic scale, weather-types). This scale bias effect has the capability to impact even large multiproxy networks and the ability of these networks to provide information about past climate conditions. To avoid scale biases in climate reconstructions, interdependencies between the different scales in the climate system must be considered, especially internal ocean/atmosphere dynamics.

  2. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

    2010-01-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting

  3. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

    PubMed

    Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

    2010-03-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs

  4. Influence of Sea Ice on Arctic Marine Sulfur Biogeochemistry in the Community Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Deal, Clara; Jin, Meibing

    2013-06-30

    Global climate models (GCMs) have not effectively considered how responses of arctic marine ecosystems to a warming climate will influence the global climate system. A key response of arctic marine ecosystems that may substantially influence energy exchange in the Arctic is a change in dimethylsulfide (DMS) emissions, because DMS emissions influence cloud albedo. This response is closely tied to sea ice through its impacts on marine ecosystem carbon and sulfur cycling, and the ice-albedo feedback implicated in accelerated arctic warming. To reduce the uncertainty in predictions from coupled climate simulations, important model components of the climate system, such as feedbacks between arctic marine biogeochemistry and climate, need to be reasonably and realistically modeled. This research first involved model development to improve the representation of marine sulfur biogeochemistry simulations to understand/diagnose the control of sea-ice-related processes on the variability of DMS dynamics. This study will help build GCM predictions that quantify the relative current and possible future influences of arctic marine ecosystems on the global climate system. Our overall research objective was to improve arctic marine biogeochemistry in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, now CESM). Working closely with the Climate Ocean Sea Ice Model (COSIM) team at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), we added 1 sea-ice algae and arctic DMS production and related biogeochemistry to the global Parallel Ocean Program model (POP) coupled to the LANL sea ice model (CICE). Both CICE and POP are core components of CESM. Our specific research objectives were: 1) Develop a state-of-the-art ice-ocean DMS model for application in climate models, using observations to constrain the most crucial parameters; 2) Improve the global marine sulfur model used in CESM by including DMS biogeochemistry in the Arctic; and 3) Assess how sea ice influences DMS dynamics in the arctic marine

  5. Physical Impacts of Climate Change on the Western US Electricity System: A Scoping Study

    SciTech Connect

    Coughlin, Katie; Goldman, Charles

    2008-12-01

    This paper presents an exploratory study of the possible physical impacts of climate change on the electric power system, and how these impacts could be incorporated into resource planning in the Western United States. While many aspects of climate change and energy have been discussed in the literature, there has not yet been a systematic review of the relationship between specific physical effects and the quantitative analyses that are commonly used in planning studies. The core of the problem is to understand how the electric system is vulnerable to physical weather risk, and how to make use of information from climate models to characterize the way these risks may evolve over time, including a treatment of uncertainty. In this paper, to provide the necessary technical background in climate science, we present an overview of the basic physics of climate and explain some of the methodologies used in climate modeling studies, particularly the importance of emissions scenarios. We also provide a brief survey of recent climate-related studies relevant to electric system planning in the Western US. To define the institutional context, we discuss the core elements of the resource and reliability planning processes used currently by utilities and by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. To illustrate more precisely how climate-related risk could be incorporated into modeling exercises, we discuss three idealized examples. Overall, we argue that existing methods of analysis can and should be extended to encompass the uncertainties related to future climate. While the focus here is on risk related to physical impacts, the same principles apply to a consideration of how future climate change policy decisions might impact the design and functioning of the electric grid. We conclude with some suggestions and recommendations on how to begin developing this approach within the existing electric system planning framework for the West.

  6. Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Biasutti, M.; Lobell, D. B.

    2015-12-01

    The already fragile agriculture production system in West Africa faces further challenges in meeting food security in the coming decades, primarily due to a fast increasing population and risks of climate change. Successful adaptation of agriculture should not only benefit in the current climate but should also reduce negative (or enhance positive) impacts for climate change. Assessment of various possible adaptation options and their uncertainties provides key information for prioritizing adaptation investments. Here, based on the several robust aspects of climate projections in this region (i.e. temperature increases and rainfall pattern shifts), we use two well-validated crop models (i.e. APSIM and SARRA-H) and an ensemble of downscaled climate forcing to assess five possible and realistic adaptation options (late sowing, intensification, thermal time increase, water harvesting and increased resilience to heat stress) in West Africa for the staple crop production of sorghum. We adopt a new assessment framework to account for both the impacts of adaptation options in current climate and their ability to reduce impacts of future climate change, and also consider changes in both mean yield and its variability. Our results reveal that most proposed "adaptation options" are not more beneficial in the future than in the current climate, i.e. not really reduce the climate change impacts. Increased temperature resilience during grain number formation period is the main adaptation that emerges. We also find that changing from the traditional to modern cultivar, and later sowing in West Sahel appear to be robust adaptations.

  7. The Earth`s climate as a dynamical system. Proceedings

    SciTech Connect

    Foster, I.; Kaper, H.: Kwong, M.K.

    1992-10-01

    This report constitutes the proceedings of a two-day workshop on climate models which was held at Argonne National Laboratory, September 25 and 26, 1992. It contains the abstracts of the presentations and copies of the overhead transparencies used by the speakers.

  8. Teaching Earth System Science Using Climate Educational Modules Based on NASA and NOAA Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramirez, P. C.; LaDochy, S.; Patzert, W. C.; Willis, J. K.

    2011-12-01

    The Earth System Science Education Alliance (ESSEA) recently developed a set of climate related educational modules to be used by K-12 teachers. These modules incorporate recent NASA and NOAA resources in Earth Science education. In the summer of 2011, these modules were tested by in-service teachers in courses held at several college campuses. At California State University, Los Angeles, we reviewed two climate modules: The Great Ocean Conveyer Belt and Abrupt Climate Change (http://essea.strategies.org/module.php?module_id=148) and Sulfur Dioxide: Its Role in Climate Change (http://essea.strategies.org/module.php?module_id=168). For each module, 4-6 teachers formed a cohort to complete assignments and unit assessments and to evaluate the effectiveness of the module for use in their classroom. Each module presented the teachers with a task that enabled them to research and better understand the science behind the climate related topic. For The Great Ocean Conveyer Belt, teachers are tasked with evaluating the impacts of the slowing or stopping of the thermohaline circulation on climate. In the same module teachers are charged with determining the possibilities of an abrupt climate shift during this century such as happened in the past. For the Sulfur Dioxide module teachers investigated the climate implications of the occurrence of several major volcanic eruptions within a short time period, as well as the feasibility of using sulfates to geoengineer climate change. In completing module assignments, teachers must list what they already know about the topic as well as formulate questions that still need to be addressed. Teachers then model the related interactions between spheres comprising the earth system (atmosphere-lithosphere, for example) to evaluate possible environmental impacts. Finally, teachers applied their research results to create lesson plans for their students. At a time when climate change and global warming are important topics in science

  9. Response of carbon fluxes and climate to orbital forcing changes in the Community Climate System Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jochum, M.; Peacock, S.; Moore, J. K.; Lindsay, K. T.

    2009-12-01

    A global general circulation model coupled to an ocean ecosystem model is used to quantify the response of carbon fluxes and climate to changes in orbital forcing. Compared to the present-day simulation, the simulation with the Earth's orbital parameters from 115,000 years ago features significantly cooler northern high latitudes, but only moderately cooler southern high latitudes. This asymmetry is explained by a 30% reduction of the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that is caused by an increased Arctic sea-ice export and a resulting freshening of the North Atlantic. The strong northern high-latitude cooling and the direct insolation induced tropical warming lead to global shifts in precipitation and winds to the order of 10-20%. These climate shifts lead to regional differences in air-sea carbon fluxes of the same order. However, the differences in global net carbon fluxes are insignificant. This surprising result is due to several effects, two of which stand out: Firstly, colder sea surface temperature leads to a more effective solubility pump but also to increased sea-ice concentration which blocks air-sea exchange; and secondly, the weakening of Southern Ocean winds, which is predicted by some idealized studies, is small compared to its interannual variability.

  10. Regional Climate Modeling of Volcanic Eruptions and the Arctic Climate System: A Baffin Island Case Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Losic, M.; Robock, A.

    2010-12-01

    It is well-understood that the effects of volcanic aerosol loading into the stratosphere are transient, with global cooling lasting only a few years after a single large eruption. Geological evidence collected from Northern Baffin Island, Canada, suggests ice cap growth began soon after a succession of several large eruptions in the 13th century, and they did not start to melt until roughly a century ago. We investigate which feedbacks allowed these ice caps to be maintained long after the transient forcing of the volcanic aerosols, by conducting sensitivity studies with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Polar WRF, a version of WRF developed specifically for the polar regions. Results from an ensemble of month-long regional simulations over Baffin Island suggest that better treatment of snow and ice in Polar WRF improves our regional climate simulations. Thus, sensitivity test results from decade-long runs with imposed changes to boundary condition temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations using Polar WRF are presented. Preliminary findings suggest that not only large scale but localized climate feedbacks play an important role in the responses of the ice caps after temperature and carbon dioxide forcings are applied. The results from these and further sensitivity tests will provide insight into the influence of regional feedbacks on the persistence of these ice caps long after the 13th century eruptions.

  11. Feedbacks in Climate - Permafrost - Vegetation System: Predictive Modeling Approach.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anisimov, O.; Beloloutskaia, M.

    2003-12-01

    Permafrost models driven by scenarios of climate change predict that reduction of the total (continuous) permafrost area in the northern hemisphere by 2030, 2050, and 2080 is likely to be 10%-18% (15%-25%); 15%-30% (20%-40%), and 20%-35% (25%-50%), respectively. Predicted changes of the seasonal thaw depth in the following three decades are relatively small, typically within 10%-15%. By the middle of the century thaw depth may increase on average by 15%-25%, and by 50% and more in the northernmost locations. By 2080 layer of seasonal thawing will become markedly thicker (by 30%-50% and more) all over the permafrost area. Vegetation above permafrost plays important role in regulating ground temperature and depth of seasonal thawing. In the warm period organic layer of peat, mosses, and lichens has low thermal conductivity and protects permafrost from thawing. Results from coupled climate - permafrost - vegetation model suggest that 5cm, 10cm, 15cm, and 20cm thick organic layer reduces seasonal thaw depth by 10%, 25%, 40%, and 60%, respectively, compared to bare ground. Enhanced growth of non-vascular plants under warmer climatic conditions may thus mitigate the effects of climatic warming on permafrost. Controlled experiments involving continuous localized warming at selected sites in the northern Europe and in Alaska indicate a multiyear tendency towards the replacement of mosses and lichens by vascular plants. In the long term climate-induced changes of vegetation may thus cause enhances warming and deeper seasonal thawing of the frozen ground ultimately leading to degradation of permafrost. Acknowledgement. This work is supported by the National Science Foundation of the Netherlands, grant # 047.011.2001.003.

  12. Adapting the US Food System to Climate Change Goes Beyond the Farm Gate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Easterling, W. E.

    2014-12-01

    The literature on climate change effects on food and agriculture has concentrated primarily on how crops and livestock likely will be directly affected by climate variability and change and by elevated carbon dioxide. Integrated assessments have simulated large-scale economic response to shifting agricultural productivity caused by climate change, including possible changes in food costs and prices. A small but growing literature has shown how different facets of agricultural production inside the farm gate could be adapted to climate variability and change. Very little research has examined how the full food system (production, processing and storage, transportation and trade, and consumption) is likely to be affected by climate change and how different adaptation approaches will be required by different parts of the food system. This paper will share partial results of a major assessment sponsored by USDA to determine how climate change-induced changes in global food security could affect the US food system. Emphasis is given to understanding how adaptation strategies differ widely across the food system. A common thread, however, is risk management-based decision making. Technologies and management strategies may co-evolve with climate change but a risk management framework for implementing those technologies and strategies may provide a stable foundation.

  13. Cpl6: The New Extensible, High-Performance Parallel Coupler forthe Community Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Craig, Anthony P.; Jacob, Robert L.; Kauffman, Brain; Bettge,Tom; Larson, Jay; Ong, Everest; Ding, Chris; He, Yun

    2005-03-24

    Coupled climate models are large, multiphysics applications designed to simulate the Earth's climate and predict the response of the climate to any changes in the forcing or boundary conditions. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is a widely used state-of-art climate model that has released several versions to the climate community over the past ten years. Like many climate models, CCSM employs a coupler, a functional unit that coordinates the exchange of data between parts of climate system such as the atmosphere and ocean. This paper describes the new coupler, cpl6, contained in the latest version of CCSM,CCSM3. Cpl6 introduces distributed-memory parallelism to the coupler, a class library for important coupler functions, and a standardized interface for component models. Cpl6 is implemented entirely in Fortran90 and uses Model Coupling Toolkit as the base for most of its classes. Cpl6 gives improved performance over previous versions and scales well on multiple platforms.

  14. Teaching Scales in the Climate System: An example of interdisciplinary teaching and learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baehr, Johanna; Behrens, Jörn; Brüggemann, Michael; Frisius, Thomas; Glessmer, Mirjam S.; Hartmann, Jens; Hense, Inga; Kaleschke, Lars; Kutzbach, Lars; Rödder, Simone; Scheffran, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is commonly regarded as one of 21st century's grand challenges that needs to be addressed by conducting integrated research combining natural and social sciences. To meet this need, how to best train future climate researchers should be reconsidered. Here, we present our experience from a team-taught semester-long course with students of the international master program "Integrated Climate System Sciences" (ICSS) at the University of Hamburg, Germany. Ten lecturers with different backgrounds in physical, mathematical, biogeochemical and social sciences accompanied by a researcher trained in didactics prepared and regularly participated in a course which consisted of weekly classes. The foundation of the course was the use of the concept of 'scales' - climate varying on different temporal and spatial scales - by developing a joint definition of 'scales in the climate system' that is applicable in the natural sciences and in the social sciences. By applying this interdisciplinary definition of 'scales' to phenomena from all components of the climate system and the socio-economic dimensions, we aimed for an integrated description of the climate system. Following the concept of research-driven teaching and learning and using a variety of teaching techniques, the students designed their own scale diagram to illustrate climate-related phenomena in different disciplines. The highlight of the course was the presentation of individually developed scale diagrams by every student with all lecturers present. Based on the already conducted course, we currently re-design the course concept to be teachable by a similarly large group of lecturers but with alternating presence in class. With further refinement and also a currently ongoing documentation of the teaching material, we will continue to use the concept of 'scales' as a vehicle for teaching an integrated view of the climate system.

  15. Group Counseling for Self-Actualization.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Streich, William H.; Keeler, Douglas J.

    Self-concept, creativity, growth orientation, an integrated value system, and receptiveness to new experiences are considered to be crucial variables to the self-actualization process. A regular, year-long group counseling program was conducted with 85 randomly selected gifted secondary students in the Farmington, Connecticut Public Schools. A…

  16. Heat waves, climate change and eggplant harvests - simple models of climate systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Provenzale, Antonello

    2008-03-01

    I discuss a simple box model of soil-vegetation-atmosphere interactions that we recently introduced to study the insurgence of summer droughts at continental midlatitudes (D'Andrea et al, GRL 2006, Baudena et al, AWR 2007). I show that the model possesses multiple equilibria and that, for the same synoptic forcing, soil moisture at the beginning of summer and vegetation cover play a primary role in determining which equilibrium will be reached. We also observe a difference in the drought climatologies associated respectively with the dynamics of natural vegetation, capable of adapting to the prevailing soil moisture conditions, and with cultivated vegetation such as eggplant, that cannot spontaneously modify its areal extent. I conclude with some speculations on a conceptual model of the interaction between vegetation and climate at global scale. The results discussed in this talk are the product of joint work with Fabio D'Andrea (ENS, Paris) and Mara Baudena (ISAC-CNR).

  17. Evaluation of the Impact of Quality Management Systems on School Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Egido Gálvez, Inmaculada; Fernández Cruz, Francisco José; Fernández Díaz, Mª José

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Implementation of quality management systems in educational institutions has gradually increased over the last few decades, even though there are still questions about the actual usefulness of these systems for improving school processes and outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to take an in-depth look at the impact, understood as…

  18. Influence of external climate forcing on coastal upwelling systems analysed in ensemble of past millennium climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tim, Nele; Zorita, Eduardo; Hünicke, Birgit; Yi, Xin; Emeis, Kay

    2016-04-01

    Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems are highly productive coastal ocean areas where nutrient rich, cold water upwells by the action of favorable winds. Observations over the 20th century and ocean sediment records, which may be indicative of upwelling, display an intensification due to stronger external climate forcing, such as increasing greenhouse gas concentrations or changes in solar irradiance. This intensification is compatible with the hypothesis put forward by Bakun (1990) that a stronger external radiative forcing should lead to a more intense coastal upwelling. Here, we analyze ensemble of simulations covering the past millennium with the aim of identifying and quantifying the role of external climate forcing on upwelling in the major Eastern Boundary Upwelling System. We analyse the decadal variability and centennial trends of upwelling in ensemble of simulations with the global climate model MPI-ESM covering the past millennium, the last 150 years and the next 100 years. The future simulations were driven by three IPCC scenarios of concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, RCP2.5, RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5. For the past millennium and the last 150 years, coastal upwelling does not show any imprint of external forcing. This result indicates that chaotic internal variability has dominated upwelling intensity in major upwelling regions over the last thousand years and even since industrialisation up to present. For the 21st century, all ensemble members show a consistent and significant intensification of upwelling in the strongest scenario RCP8.5 for the Benguela upwelling region, consistent and significant weakening for Morocco and California, and no significant change for the Peruvian upwelling. Weaker scenarios do not produce consistent long-term trends that are replicated in all ensemble members. The results are confirmed by analysing another ensemble of past millennium simulations with the model CESM-CAM5 (Community Earth System Model

  19. Intervening in Earth's climate system through space-based solar reflectors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salazar, F. J. T.; McInnes, C. R.; Winter, O. C.

    2016-07-01

    Several space-based climate engineering methods, including shading the Earth with a particle ring for active cooling, or the use of orbital reflectors to increase the total insolation of Mars for climate warming have been considered to modify planetary climates in a controller manner. In this study, solar reflectors on polar orbits are proposed to intervene in the Earth's climate system, involving near circular polar orbits normal to the ecliptic plane of the Earth. Similarly, a family of displaced polar orbits (non-Keplerian orbits) are also characterized to mitigate future natural climate variability, producing a modest global temperature increase, again to compensate for possible future cooling. These include deposition of aerosols in the stratosphere from large volcanic events. The two-body problem is considered, taking into account the effects of solar radiation pressure and the Earth's J2 oblateness perturbation.

  20. Can the solar system planetary motion be used to forecast the multidecadal variability of climate?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scafetta, N.

    2008-12-01

    Global warming has been and will be significantly modified by natural decadal-scale climate variability. For example, the pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) has entered a cool phase that is expected to induce a global cooling in the following two decades. A cooling of the global climate, not predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections, has been observed since 2002. The causes of the natural decadal and multidecadal scale climate fluctuations remain unexplained. This makes particularly problematic the evaluation of the climate models and of their theoretical forecasts for the 21st century. Here I investigate whether multidecadal internal climate variations are extraterrestrially induced. The movement of the Sun relative to the center of mass of the solar system (CMSS) is used as a proxy of the extraterrestrial forcing. I show that large natural climate variations with peak-to-trough amplitude of about 0.1 oC and 0.24 oC and with periods of about 20 and 60 years, respectively, match equivalent oscillations found in the dynamics of the Sun relative to the CMSS. Several other frequency components match as well. Thus, the solar planetary index can be used to forecast multidecadal natural climate oscillations for the 21st century. These projections indicate that climate will stabilize or cool until 2030. An indirect consequence of these findings is that at least 60% of the global warming observed since 1975 has been induced by the combined effect of the above two natural climate oscillations. This suggests that the anthropogenic effect on global warming has been exaggerated by the climate model simulations and projections published by the IPCC.

  1. Evolutionary responses to climate change in parasitic systems.

    PubMed

    Chaianunporn, Thotsapol; Hovestadt, Thomas

    2015-08-01

    Species may respond to climate change in many ecological and evolutionary ways. In this simulation study, we focus on the concurrent evolution of three traits in response to climate change, namely dispersal probability, temperature tolerance (or niche width), and temperature preference (optimal habitat). More specifically, we consider evolutionary responses in host species involved in different types of interaction, that is parasitism or commensalism, and for low or high costs of a temperature tolerance-fertility trade-off (cost of generalization). We find that host species potentially evolve all three traits simultaneously in response to increasing temperature but that the evolutionary response interacts and may be compensatory depending on the conditions. The evolutionary adjustment of temperature preference is slower in the parasitism than in commensalism scenario. Parasitism, in turn, selects for higher temperature tolerance and increased dispersal. High costs for temperature tolerance (i.e. generalization) restrict evolution of tolerance and thus lead to a faster response in temperature preference than that observed under low costs. These results emphasize the possible role of biotic interactions and the importance of 'multidimensional' evolutionary responses to climate change.

  2. Developing the next-generation climate system models: challenges and achievements.

    PubMed

    Slingo, Julia; Bates, Kevin; Nikiforakis, Nikos; Piggott, Matthew; Roberts, Malcolm; Shaffrey, Len; Stevens, Ian; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Weller, Hilary

    2009-03-13

    Although climate models have been improving in accuracy and efficiency over the past few decades, it now seems that these incremental improvements may be slowing. As tera/petascale computing becomes massively parallel, our legacy codes are less suitable, and even with the increased resolution that we are now beginning to use, these models cannot represent the multiscale nature of the climate system. This paper argues that it may be time to reconsider the use of adaptive mesh refinement for weather and climate forecasting in order to achieve good scaling and representation of the wide range of spatial scales in the atmosphere and ocean. Furthermore, the challenge of introducing living organisms and human responses into climate system models is only just beginning to be tackled. We do not yet have a clear framework in which to approach the problem, but it is likely to cover such a huge number of different scales and processes that radically different methods may have to be considered. The challenges of multiscale modelling and petascale computing provide an opportunity to consider a fresh approach to numerical modelling of the climate (or Earth) system, which takes advantage of the computational fluid dynamics developments in other fields and brings new perspectives on how to incorporate Earth system processes. This paper reviews some of the current issues in climate (and, by implication, Earth) system modelling, and asks the question whether a new generation of models is needed to tackle these problems.

  3. The Geographic Climate Information System Project (GEOCLIMA): Overview and preliminary results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Melas, D.; Vaitis, M.; Anadranistakis, E.; Symeonidis, P.; Pantelopoulos, S.

    2012-04-01

    The project GEOCLIMA aims at developing an integrated Geographic Information System (GIS) allowing the user to manage, analyze and visualize the information which is directly or indirectly related to climate and its future projections in Greece. The main components of the project are: a) collection and homogenization of climate and environmental related information, b) estimation of future climate change based on existing regional climate model (RCM) simulations as well as a supplementary high resolution (10 km x 10 km) simulation over the period 1961-2100 using RegCM3, c) compilation of an integrated uniform geographic database, and d) mapping of climate data, creation of digital thematic maps, and development of the integrated web GIS application. This paper provides an overview of the ongoing research efforts and preliminary results of the project. First, the trends in the annual and seasonal time series of precipitation and air temperature observations for all available stations in Greece are assessed. Then the set-up of the high resolution RCM simulation (10 km x 10 km) is discussed with respect to the selected convective scheme. Finally, the relationship of climatic variables with geophysical features over Greece such as altitude, location, distance from the sea, slope, aspect, distance from climatic barriers, land cover etc) is investigated, to support climate mapping. The research has been co-financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009.

  4. An overfilled lacustrine system and progradational delta in Jezero crater, Mars: Implications for Noachian climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schon, Samuel C.; Head, James W.; Fassett, Caleb I.

    2012-07-01

    The presence of valley networks and open-basin lakes in the late Noachian is cited as evidence for overland flow of liquid water and thus a climate on early Mars that might have supported precipitation and runoff. Outstanding questions center on the nature of such a climate, its duration and variability, and its cause. Open basin lakes, their interior morphology, and their associated channels provide evidence to address these questions. We synthesize the extensive knowledge of terrestrial open basin lakes, deltaic environments, and fluvial systems to assess these questions with evidence from Jezero crater, a 45 km diameter open basin lake and its 15,000 km2 catchment area, ˜645-km long drainage network, interior sedimentary facies, and ˜50 km long outlet channel system. We document the presence of extensive scroll bars and epsilon cross-bedding, both indicative of meandering distributary channels that are not observed on alluvial fans but are typical of fluvial-deltaic depositional environments. A fluvial-deltaic environment is further supported by the post-formational erosion of the deltaic complex: the present-day "delta front" is actually an erosional escarpment truncating delta plain features with the clay-rich prodelta environment, predicted from facies models to make up the outer third of the complex, having been largely removed by eolian erosion. The extensive development via lateral accretion of scroll bars and epsilon cross-bedding, and the reconstructed sedimentary architecture suggest a stable baselevel, in contrast to an environment of constantly rising and falling baselevel related to variable input and evaporation that would favor incision during lowstands. The development of the outlet channel is interpreted to have provided baselevel control in the Jezero open-basin lake. The maturity of the outlet channel, in contrast to the catastrophically scoured landscapes typical of dam-breach channels, favors a consistent overfilled hydrology for the

  5. Detecting and Attributing External Influences on the Climate System: A Review of Recent Advances

    SciTech Connect

    Barnett, T; Zwiers, F; Hegerl, G; Allen, M; Crowley, T; Gillett, N; Hasselmann, K; Jones, P; Santer, B; Schnur, R; Stott, P; Taylor, K; Tett, S

    2005-01-26

    We review recent research that assesses evidence for the detection of anthropogenic and natural external influences on the climate. Externally driven climate change has been detected by a number of investigators in independent data covering many parts of the climate system, including surface temperature on global and large regional scales, ocean-heat content, atmospheric circulation, and variables of the free atmosphere, such as atmospheric temperature and tropopause height. The influence of external forcing is also clearly discernible in reconstructions of hemispheric scale temperature of the last millennium. These observed climate changes are very unlikely to be due only to natural internal climate variability, and they are consistent with the responses to anthropogenic and natural external forcing of the climate system that are simulated with climate models. The evidence indicates that natural drivers such as solar variability and volcanic activity are at most partially responsible for the large-scale temperature changes observed over the past century, and that a large fraction of the warming over the last 50 years can be attributed to greenhouse gas increases. Thus the recent research supports and strengthens the IPCC Third Assessment Report conclusion that ''most of the global warming over the past 50 years is likely due to the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gases''.

  6. The changing effects of Alaska’s boreal forests on the climate system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, Anthony; Chapin, F.S.; Rupp, T.S.

    2010-01-01

    In the boreal forests of Alaska, recent changes in climate have influenced the exchange of trace gases, water, and energy between these forests and the atmosphere. These changes in the structure and function of boreal forests can then feed back to impact regional and global climates. In this manuscript, we examine the type and magnitude of the climate feedbacks from boreal forests in Alaska. Research generally suggests that the net effect of a warming climate is a positive regional feedback to warming. Currently, the primary positive climate feedbacks are likely related to decreases in surface albedo due to decreases in snow cover. Fewer negative feedbacks have been identified, and they may not be large enough to counterbalance the large positive feedbacks. These positive feedbacks are most pronounced at the regional scale and reduce the resilience of the boreal vegetation – climate system by amplifying the rate of regional warming. Given the recent warming in this region, the large variety of associated mechanisms that can alter terrestrial ecosystems and influence the climate system, and a reduction in the boreal forest resilience, there is a strong need to continue to quantify and evaluate the feedback pathways.

  7. Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibson, Peter B.; Uotila, Petteri; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Pitman, Andrew J.

    2016-10-01

    Climate models are our principal tool for generating the projections used to inform climate change policy. Our confidence in projections depends, in part, on how realistically they simulate present day climate and associated variability over a range of time scales. Traditionally, climate models are less commonly assessed at time scales relevant to daily weather systems. Here we explore the utility of a self-organizing maps (SOMs) procedure for evaluating the frequency, persistence and transitions of daily synoptic systems in the Australian region simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models. In terms of skill in simulating the climatological frequency of synoptic systems, large spread was observed between models. A positive association between all metrics was found, implying that relative skill in simulating the persistence and transitions of systems is related to skill in simulating the climatological frequency. Considering all models and metrics collectively, model performance was found to be related to model horizontal resolution but unrelated to vertical resolution or representation of the stratosphere. In terms of the SOM procedure, the timespan over which evaluation was performed had some influence on model performance skill measures, as did the number of circulation types examined. These findings have implications for selecting models most useful for future projections over the Australian region, particularly for projections related to synoptic scale processes and phenomena. More broadly, this study has demonstrated the utility of the SOMs procedure in providing a process-based evaluation of climate models.

  8. Leadership, Organizational Climate, and Working Alliance in a Children's Mental Health Service System

    PubMed Central

    Green, Amy E.; Albanese, Brian J.; Cafri, Guy; Aarons, Gregory A.

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this study was to examine the relationships of transformational leadership and organizational climate with working alliance, in a children's mental health service system. Using multilevel structural equation modeling, the effect of leadership on working alliance was mediated by organizational climate. These results suggest that supervisors may be able to impact quality of care through improving workplace climate. Organizational factors should be considered in efforts to improve public sector services. Understanding these issues is important for program leaders, mental health service providers, and consumers because they can affect both the way services are delivered and ultimately, clinical outcomes. PMID:24323137

  9. Leadership, organizational climate, and working alliance in a children's mental health service system.

    PubMed

    Green, Amy E; Albanese, Brian J; Cafri, Guy; Aarons, Gregory A

    2014-10-01

    The goal of this study was to examine the relationships of transformational leadership and organizational climate with working alliance, in a children's mental health service system. Using multilevel structural equation modeling, the effect of leadership on working alliance was mediated by organizational climate. These results suggest that supervisors may be able to impact quality of care through improving workplace climate. Organizational factors should be considered in efforts to improve public sector services. Understanding these issues is important for program leaders, mental health service providers, and consumers because they can affect both the way services are delivered and ultimately, clinical outcomes.

  10. A Power Efficient Exaflop Computer Design for Global Cloud System Resolving Climate Models.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wehner, M. F.; Oliker, L.; Shalf, J.

    2008-12-01

    Exascale computers would allow routine ensemble modeling of the global climate system at the cloud system resolving scale. Power and cost requirements of traditional architecture systems are likely to delay such capability for many years. We present an alternative route to the exascale using embedded processor technology to design a system optimized for ultra high resolution climate modeling. These power efficient processors, used in consumer electronic devices such as mobile phones, portable music players, cameras, etc., can be tailored to the specific needs of scientific computing. We project that a system capable of integrating a kilometer scale climate model a thousand times faster than real time could be designed and built in a five year time scale for US$75M with a power consumption of 3MW. This is cheaper, more power efficient and sooner than any other existing technology.

  11. Application of geographic information systems in the field of strategic planning in climate politics via the example of drinking water service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Selmeczi, Pál; Rotárné Szalkai, Ágnes; Homolya, Emese

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is one of the most significant issues of the 21th century that concerns particular regions to a different extent depending on their societal, economic and environmental characteristics. According to the actual cognition and the outcome of researches so far Hungary is an area of considerable vulnerability both in the global and the regional scales. A major understanding of past years is that efforts for prevention are insufficient and that special care is necessary for the adaptation techniques to climate change and to strengthen adaptive capacity. This knowledge has led to the development of an adaptive strategy [COM/2013/0216] by the European Union in 2013 in which the necessity for local and regional actions is highlighted. Adaptation has been asserted to be an issue of considerable significance both in national and international strategy development and regulation in the latest years. Strategic integration of adaptation to climate change on the sectorial and departmental levels requires a wide range of information about the climate vulnerability of societal, economic and environmental systems, however, competent information necessary for the determination of vulnerability is in many cases insufficient. Furthermore, due to the lack of accordance in data systems of different sectors the research on climate vulnerability, owing to complex data needs, is difficult to carry out. Considering all these facts, the development of an extensive geographic information system and an assessment methodology, integrating information on the environment, society and economy and, as an objective background, providing support for planning and decision making in the fields of adaptation and climate politics, is necessary. In the frames of a comprehensive professional and governmental cooperation the work on the National Adaptation Geo-information System (NAGiS) has begun in Hungary in 2014, aiming for the development of a geographic information system of

  12. Diminished Wastewater Treatment: Evaluation of Septic System Performance Under a Climate Change Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cooper, J.; Loomis, G.; Kalen, D.; Boving, T. B.; Morales, I.; Amador, J.

    2015-12-01

    The effects of climate change are expected to reduce the ability of soil-based onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS), to treat domestic wastewater. In the northeastern U.S., the projected increase in atmospheric temperature, elevation of water tables from rising sea levels, and heightened precipitation will reduce the volume of unsaturated soil and oxygen available for treatment. Incomplete removal of contaminants may lead to transport of pathogens, nutrients, and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) to groundwater, increasing the risk to public health and likelihood of eutrophying aquatic ecosystems. Advanced OWTS, which include pre-treatment steps and provide unsaturated drainfields of greater volume relative to conventional OWTS, are expected to be more resilient to climate change. We used intact soil mesocosms to quantify water quality functions for two advanced shallow narrow drainfield types and a conventional drainfield under a current climate scenario and a moderate climate change scenario of 30 cm rise in water table and 5°C increase in soil temperature. While no fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) was released under the current climate scenario, up to 109 CFU FCB/mL (conventional) and up to 20 CFU FCB/mL (shallow narrow) were released under the climate change scenario. Total P removal rates dropped from 100% to 54% (conventional) and 71% (shallow narrow) under the climate change scenario. Total N removal averaged 17% under both climate scenarios in the conventional, but dropped from 5.4% to 0% in the shallow narrow under the climate change scenario, with additional leaching of N in excess of inputs indicating release of previously held N. No significant difference was observed between scenarios for BOD removal. The initial data indicate that while advanced OWTS retain more function under the climate change scenario, all three drainfield types experience some diminished treatment capacity.

  13. Linguistic Theory and Actual Language.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Segerdahl, Par

    1995-01-01

    Examines Noam Chomsky's (1957) discussion of "grammaticalness" and the role of linguistics in the "correct" way of speaking and writing. It is argued that the concern of linguistics with the tools of grammar has resulted in confusion, with the tools becoming mixed up with the actual language, thereby becoming the central element in a metaphysical…

  14. El Observatorio Gemini - Status actual

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levato, H.

    Se hace una breve descripción de la situación actual del Observatorio Gemini y de las últimas decisiones del Board para incrementar la eficiencia operativa. Se hace también una breve referencia al uso argentino del observatorio.

  15. Adaptation to Interannual and Interdecadal Climate Variability in Agricultural Production Systems of the Argentine Pampas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Podestá, G. P.; Bert, F.; Weber, E.; Laciana, C.; Rajagopalan, B.; Letson, D.

    2007-05-01

    Agricultural ecosystems play a central role in world food production and food security, and involve one of the most climate-sensitive sectors of society-agriculture. We focus on crop production in the Argentine Pampas, one of the world's major agricultural regions. Climate of the Pampas shows marked variability at both interannual and decadal time scales. We explored the scope for adaptive management in response to climate information on interannual scales. We show that different assumptions about what decision makers are trying to achieve (i.e., their objective functions) may change what actions are considered as "optimal" for a given climate context. Optimal actions also were used to estimate the economic value of forecasts of an ENSO phase. Decision constraints (e.g., crop rotations) have critical influence on value of the forecasting system. Gaps in knowledge or misconceptions about climate variability were identified in open-ended "mental model" interviews. Results were used to design educational interventions. A marked increase in precipitation since the 1970s, together with new production technologies, led to major changes in land use patterns in the Pampas. Continuous cropping has widely replaced agriculture-pasture rotations. Nevertheless, production systems that evolved partly in response to increased rainfall may not be viable if climate reverts to a drier epoch. We use historical data to define a range of plausible climate trajectories 20-30 years hence. Regional scenarios are downscaled using semi-parametric weather generators to produce multiple realizations of daily weather consistent with decadal scenarios. Finally, we use the synthetic climate, crop growth models, and realistic models of decision-making under risk to compute risk metrics (e.g., probability of yields or profits being below a threshold). Climatically optimal and marginal locations show differential responses: probabilities of negative economic results are much higher in currently

  16. Impacts of Future Climate Change on Ukraine Transportation System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khomenko, Inna

    2016-04-01

    Transportation not only affects climate, but are strongly influenced with the climate conditions, and key hubs of the transportation sector are cities. Transportation decision makers have an opportunity now to prepare for projected climate changes owing to development of emission scenarios. In the study impact of climate change on operation of road transport along highways are analyzed on the basis of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Data contains series of daily mean and maximum temperature, daily liquid (or mixed) and solid precipitation, daily mean relative humidity and daily mean and maximum wind speed, obtained for the period of 2011 to 2050 for 8 cities (Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Odesa, Ternopil, Vinnytsia and Voznesensk) situated down the highways. The highways of 'Odesa-Voznesensk-Dnipropetrovsk-Kharkiv' and 'Dnipropetrovsk-Kirovohrad-Vinnytsia-Khmelnytskyi-Ternopil' are considered. The first highway goes across the Black Sea Lowland, the Dnieper Upland and Dnieper Lowland, the other passes through the Dnieper and Volhynia-Podillia Uplands. The both highways are situated in steppe and forest-steppe native zones. For both scenarios, significant climate warming is registered; it is revealed in significant increase of average monthly and yearly temperature by 2-3°C in all cities in questions, and also, in considerable increment of frequency of days with maximum temperature higher than +30 and 35°C, except Kharkiv, where decrease number of days with such temperatures is observed. On the contrary, number of days with daily mean temperature being equal to or below 0°C decreases in the south of steppe, is constant in the north of steppe and increases in the forest-steppe native zone. Extreme negative temperatures don't occur in the steppe zone, but takes place in the forest-steppe zone. Results obtained shows that road surface must hold in extreme maximum temperature, and in the forest-steppe zone hazards of extreme negative temperatures

  17. Estimating Climate System Feedbacks and Sensitivities using Linear Inverse Modeling versus the Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Penland, M. C.

    2011-12-01

    Improving climate predictions from subseasonal to centennial scales, including responses to projected increases of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and other radiative forcings, is the outstanding challenge in climate science today. Despite decades of model development, however, comprehensive coupled atmosphere-ocean models remain deficient in many respects in this regard, and also disagree substantially among themselves. They differ in their representations of ENSO and longer-term oceanic variability, and also generate substantially different global and regional climate responses to radiative forcing. A key global metric, global climate sensitivity (defined as the globally averaged equilibrium surface temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide), differs by more than a factor of three among the models, which is highly inconvenient for climate policy. To discriminate between the models and also possibly to improve them, independent estimations of climate sensitivities and feedbacks from knowledge of observed past system behavior would be highly desirable. There are two apparently distinct approaches currently available to accomplish this: the Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem (FDT) and Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM). Both use knowledge of the time-lag covariance matrices C(tau) of the system. The former estimates the system response matrix R for small external forcing using C(tau) integrated from zero to infinite lag, whereas the latter estimates it using C(tau) for a single lag, tau-0. If C(tau) decays exponentially with lag, the two approaches are formally identical. The authors and others have demonstrated in numerous publications that C(tau) does indeed decay approximately exponentially with lag in the climate system, and have used this property to construct forecast models that remain highly competitive with state-of-the-art comprehensive subseasonal and seasonal forecast models. A practical difficulty with using the FDT to estimate R is that it requires accurate

  18. Simulation of the Climate of Africa Based on the Hydrodynamical System of Equations Governing Atmospheric Flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semazzi, Frederick

    2008-10-01

    Application of the laws of physics is the cornerstone in the development of computer simulation models used for the study and prediction of climate. They involve application of the laws of thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, acoustics, and optics physics, among others. The typical basic formulation of climate models consists of a closed system of time-dependant non-linear partial differential equations, discretized with appropriate numerical forms, executed on high powered gigaflop computer systems, and supported by terabyte disk storage systems. Specific application of a climate computer simulation model and prediction of recent record drought conditions in Africa is discussed. Climatic and hydrologic projection results for the year 2071 through 2100 derived from the computer model show that regional climate will be warmer except for a few areas and major rainfall shifts are expected to occur. As a consequence the levels of large lakes in Eastern Africa will increase. In particular Lake Victoria (source of the Nile) is projected to increase in height by 2 meters thus increasing the potential for hydroelectric power generation for domestic and industrial consumption. These results will contribute to improved planning and management of multi-billion dollar climate-sensitive social-economic functions in Africa.

  19. Long-term climate sensitivity of an integrated water supply system: The role of irrigation.

    PubMed

    Guyennon, Nicolas; Romano, Emanuele; Portoghese, Ivan

    2016-09-15

    The assessment of the impact of long-term climate variability on water supply systems depends not only on possible variations of the resources availability, but also on the variation of the demand. In this framework, a robust estimation of direct (climate induced) and indirect (anthropogenically induced) effects of climate change is mandatory to design mitigation measures, especially in those regions of the planet where the groundwater equilibrium is strongly perturbed by exploitations for irrigation purposes. The main goal of this contribution is to propose a comprehensive model that integrates distributed crop water requirements with surface and groundwater mass balance, able to consider management rules of the water supply system. The proposed overall model, implemented, calibrated and validated for the case study of the Fortore water supply system (Apulia region, South Italy), permits to simulate the conjunctive use of the water from a surface artificial reservoir and from groundwater. The relative contributions of groundwater recharges and withdrawals to the aquifer stress have been evaluated under different climate perturbations, with emphasis on irrigation practices. Results point out that irrigated agriculture primarily affects groundwater discharge, indicating that ecosystem services connected to river base flow are particularly exposed to climate variation in irrigated areas. Moreover, findings show that the recharge both to surface and to groundwater is mainly affected by drier climate conditions, while hotter conditions have a major impact on the water demand. The non-linearity arising from combined drier and hotter conditions may exacerbate the aquifer stress by exposing it to massive sea-water intrusion.

  20. Evaluating predictability in nonlinear climate systems using the Mount Pinatubo eruption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaddis, A.; Drake, J.; Evans, K. J.; Gentry, R. W.

    2010-12-01

    Volcanic eruptions serve as a benchmark for assessing aspects of predictability since they provide a sudden global impulse to the Earth’s climate system. In particular, the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines is of interest since it was the largest aerosol perturbation to the stratosphere in this century, and also it is the most intensely observed eruption on record. Using this information, the predictive skill of climate models may be evaluated and information about the earth’s climate sensitivity may be inferred. In this study, weather records from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis project are used consisting of monthly averages of climate variables. This data is then compared to high-resolution data for the same time period from the newest Community Climate System Model, CCSM4. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of both data sets is performed to generate a trajectory in phase space with respect to aerosol optical depth for the Pinatubo event. This characterizes the sensitivity of the system. The results are presented for various climate variables, such as surface air temperature, precipitable water, and sea level pressure.

  1. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems.

    PubMed

    Parmesan, Camille; Yohe, Gary

    2003-01-01

    Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

  2. Regional Climatic Effects of Crop Growth Modeled by the Coupled CWRF-CROP System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, M.; Liang, X.; Gao, W.

    2011-12-01

    Many studies have been done on the crop responses to climate change and variability using off-line crop growth models. However the activities of crop growth impose significant influences on weather and climate on global, regional, and local scales by changing the physical characteristics of the land surface and modulating the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Therefore it is essential to study the climate-crop interactions using fully coupled climate-crop models. In this study, the cotton growth model, GOSSYM (an acronym from the word Gossypium, the genus of cotton), re-engineered in software with improved physical processes was coupled with the state-of-the-art Climate extension of the Weather and Research Forecasting model (CWRF). We used the fully coupled CWRF-CROP modeling system to investigate the comprehensive feedbacks to local and regional climate from the seasonal changes in land cover characteristics caused by crop growth, including roughness and displacement, surface albedo, root depth and density, photosynthesis, and irrigation. The preliminary results showed that crop growth greatly alters the radiaitive forcing, near surface aerodynamic processes, and surface and sub-surface hydrology, which affects local and regional climate.

  3. Climate and atmosphere simulator for experiments on ecological systems in changing environments.

    PubMed

    Verdier, Bruno; Jouanneau, Isabelle; Simonnet, Benoit; Rabin, Christian; Van Dooren, Tom J M; Delpierre, Nicolas; Clobert, Jean; Abbadie, Luc; Ferrière, Régis; Le Galliard, Jean-François

    2014-01-01

    Grand challenges in global change research and environmental science raise the need for replicated experiments on ecosystems subjected to controlled changes in multiple environmental factors. We designed and developed the Ecolab as a variable climate and atmosphere simulator for multifactor experimentation on natural or artificial ecosystems. The Ecolab integrates atmosphere conditioning technology optimized for accuracy and reliability. The centerpiece is a highly contained, 13-m(3) chamber to host communities of aquatic and terrestrial species and control climate (temperature, humidity, rainfall, irradiance) and atmosphere conditions (O2 and CO2 concentrations). Temperature in the atmosphere and in the water or soil column can be controlled independently of each other. All climatic and atmospheric variables can be programmed to follow dynamical trajectories and simulate gradual as well as step changes. We demonstrate the Ecolab's capacity to simulate a broad range of atmospheric and climatic conditions, their diurnal and seasonal variations, and to support the growth of a model terrestrial plant in two contrasting climate scenarios. The adaptability of the Ecolab design makes it possible to study interactions between variable climate-atmosphere factors and biotic disturbances. Developed as an open-access, multichamber platform, this equipment is available to the international scientific community for exploring interactions and feedbacks between ecological and climate systems.

  4. The computational future for climate and Earth system models: on the path to petaflop and beyond.

    PubMed

    Washington, Warren M; Buja, Lawrence; Craig, Anthony

    2009-03-13

    The development of the climate and Earth system models has had a long history, starting with the building of individual atmospheric, ocean, sea ice, land vegetation, biogeochemical, glacial and ecological model components. The early researchers were much aware of the long-term goal of building the Earth system models that would go beyond what is usually included in the climate models by adding interactive biogeochemical interactions. In the early days, the progress was limited by computer capability, as well as by our knowledge of the physical and chemical processes. Over the last few decades, there has been much improved knowledge, better observations for validation and more powerful supercomputer systems that are increasingly meeting the new challenges of comprehensive models. Some of the climate model history will be presented, along with some of the successes and difficulties encountered with present-day supercomputer systems.

  5. Design and Development of Geothermal Cooling System for Composite Climatic Zone in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ralegaonkar, R.; Kamath, M. V.; Dakwale, V. A.

    2014-09-01

    The tropical climate buildings use about 70 % of operating energy for cooling of built environment. In composite climatic zone like Nagpur, Maharashtra, India several electro-mechanical cooling appliances viz., evaporative coolers, air conditioners, etc. are used. Application of geothermal cooling system is a very apt option for saving energy and reducing emission when compared to conventional cooling techniques. In the present work design methodology of geothermal cooling system is broadly elaborated and is applied to a case study of an educational building located in composite climate. The application of conventional and geothermal cooling systems is compared in terms of energy consumption. It is found that geothermal cooling system saves around 90 % of electricity as compared to air conditioner and 100 % of water as compared to evaporative coolers. This approach can further be extended for larger applications that will reduce consumption of energy and water in buildings.

  6. Stability of the vegetation-atmosphere system in the early Eocene climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Port, U.; Claussen, M.

    2015-05-01

    We explore the stability of the atmosphere-vegetation system in the warm, almost ice-free early Eocene climate and in the interglacial, pre-industrial climate by analysing the dependence of the system on the initial vegetation cover. The Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology is initialised with either dense forests or bare deserts on all continents. Starting with desert continents, an extended desert remains in Central Asia in early Eocene climate. Starting with dense forest coverage, this desert is much smaller because the initially dense vegetation cover enhances water recycling in Central Asia relative to the simulation with initial deserts. With a smaller Asian desert, the Asian monsoon is stronger than in the case with a larger desert. The stronger Asian monsoon shifts the global tropical circulation leading to coastal subtropical deserts in North and South America which are significantly larger than with a large Asian desert. This result indicates a global teleconnection of the vegetation cover in several regions. In present-day climate, a bi-stability of the atmosphere-vegetation system is found for Northern Africa only. A global teleconnection of bi-stabilities in several regions is absent highlighting that the stability of the vegetation-atmosphere system depends on climatic and tectonic boundary conditions.

  7. Characterization of the Dynamics of Climate Systems and Identification of Missing Mechanisms Impacting the Long Term Predictive Capabilities of Global Climate Models Utilizing Dynamical Systems Approaches to the Analysis of Observed and Modeled Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Bhatt, Uma S.; Wackerbauer, Renate; Polyakov, Igor V.; Newman, David E.; Sanchez, Raul E.

    2015-11-13

    The goal of this research was to apply fractional and non-linear analysis techniques in order to develop a more complete characterization of climate change and variability for the oceanic, sea ice and atmospheric components of the Earth System. This research applied two measures of dynamical characteristics of time series, the R/S method of calculating the Hurst exponent and Renyi entropy, to observational and modeled climate data in order to evaluate how well climate models capture the long-term dynamics evident in observations. Fractional diffusion analysis was applied to ARGO ocean buoy data to quantify ocean transport. Self organized maps were applied to North Pacific sea level pressure and analyzed in ways to improve seasonal predictability for Alaska fire weather. This body of research shows that these methods can be used to evaluate climate models and shed light on climate mechanisms (i.e., understanding why something happens). With further research, these methods show promise for improving seasonal to longer time scale forecasts of climate.

  8. A multi-resolution method for climate system modeling: application of Spherical Centroidal A multi-resolution method for climate system modeling: Application of Spherical Centroidal Voroni Tessellations

    SciTech Connect

    Ringler, Todd D; Gunzburger, Max; Ju, Lili

    2008-01-01

    During the next decade and beyond, climate system models will be challenged to resolve scales and processes that are far beyond their current scope. Each climate system component has its prototypical example of an unresolved process that may strongly influence the global climate system, ranging from eddy activity within ocean models, to ice streams within ice sheet models, to surface hydrological processes within land system models, to cloud processes within atmosphere models. These new demands will almost certainly result in the develop of multi-resolution schemes that are able, at least regional to faithfully simulate these fine-scale processes. Spherical Centroidal Voronoi Tessellations (SCVTs) offer one potential path toward the development of robust, multi-resolution climate system component models, SCVTs allow for the generation of high quality Voronoi diagrams and Delaunay triangulations through the use of an intuitive, user-defined density function, each of the examples provided, this method results in high-quality meshes where the quality measures are guaranteed to improve as the number of nodes is increased. Real-world examples are developed for the Greenland ice sheet and the North Atlantic ocean. Idealized examples are developed for ocean-ice shelf interaction and for regional atmospheric modeling. In addition to defining, developing and exhibiting SCVTs, we pair this mesh generation technique with a previously developed finite-volume method. Our numerical example is based on the nonlinear shallow-water equations spanning the entire surface of the sphere. This example is used to elucidate both the potential benefits of this multi-resolution method and the challenges ahead.

  9. Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system

    PubMed Central

    Kriegler, Elmar; Hall, Jim W.; Held, Hermann; Dawson, Richard; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

    2009-01-01

    Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates highlight large uncertainty, they allocate significant probability to some of the events listed above. We deduce conservative lower bounds for the probability of triggering at least 1 of those events of 0.16 for medium (2–4 °C), and 0.56 for high global mean temperature change (above 4 °C) relative to year 2000 levels. PMID:19289827

  10. Genetic Resources of Energy Crops: Biological Systems to Combat Climate Change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Biological systems are expected to contribute to renewable energy production, help stabilize rising levels of green house gases (GHG), and mitigate the risk of global climate change (GCC). Bioenergy crop plants that function as solar energy collectors and thermo-chemical energy storage systems are t...

  11. Changes in Organizational Climate Associated with Development and Implementation of an Educational Management System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonney, Lewis A.

    The development and implementation of a humanistic educational management system in a large urban school district has been associated with demonstrable changes in organizational climate. The management system is humanistic in that teachers and principals select their educational priorities based on student needs and mutually agree with supervisors…

  12. Environmental Technology Verification Report: Climate Energy freewatt™ Micro-Combined Heat and Power System

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA GHG Center collaborated with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) to evaluate the performance of the Climate Energy freewatt Micro-Combined Heat and Power System. The system is a reciprocating internal combustion (IC) engine distributed e...

  13. The DSET Tool Library: A software approach to enable data exchange between climate system models

    SciTech Connect

    McCormick, J.

    1994-12-01

    Climate modeling is a computationally intensive process. Until recently computers were not powerful enough to perform the complex calculations required to simulate the earth`s climate. As a result standalone programs were created that represent components of the earth`s climate (e.g., Atmospheric Circulation Model). However, recent advances in computing, including massively parallel computing, make it possible to couple the components forming a complete earth climate simulation. The ability to couple different climate model components will significantly improve our ability to predict climate accurately and reliably. Historically each major component of the coupled earth simulation is a standalone program designed independently with different coordinate systems and data representations. In order for two component models to be coupled, the data of one model must be mapped to the coordinate system of the second model. The focus of this project is to provide a general tool to facilitate the mapping of data between simulation components, with an emphasis on using object-oriented programming techniques to provide polynomial interpolation, line and area weighting, and aggregation services.

  14. Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage systems: a review.

    PubMed

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K; Willems, P; Olsson, J; Beecham, S; Pathirana, A; Bülow Gregersen, I; Madsen, H; Nguyen, V-T-V

    2013-01-01

    A review is made of current methods for assessing future changes in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic-induced climate change. The review concludes that in spite of significant advances there are still many limitations in our understanding of how to describe precipitation patterns in a changing climate in order to design and operate urban drainage infrastructure. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing these with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities habitable into the future.

  15. Climate Change, Hydrology and Landscapes of America's Heartland: A Coupled Natural-Human System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lant, C.; Misgna, G.; Secchi, S.; Schoof, J. T.

    2012-12-01

    This paper will present a methodological overview of an NSF-funded project under the Coupled Natural and Human System program. Climate change, coupled with variations and changes in economic and policy environments and agricultural techniques, will alter the landscape of the U.S. Midwest. Assessing the effects of these changes on watersheds, and thus on water quantity, water quality, and agricultural production, entails modeling a coupled natural-human system capable of answering research questions such as: (1) How will the climate of the U.S. Midwest change through the remainder of the 21st Century? (2) How will climate change, together with changing markets and policies, affect land use patterns at various scales, from the U.S. Midwest, to agricultural regions, to watersheds, to farms and fields? (3) Under what policies and prices does landscape change induced by climate change generate a positive or a negative feedback through changes in carbon storage, evapotranspiration, and albedo? (4) Will climate change expand or diminish the agricultural production and ecosystem service generation capacities of specific watersheds? Such research can facilitate early adaptation and make a timely contribution to the successful integration of agricultural, environmental, and trade policy. Rural landscapes behave as a system through a number of feedback mechanisms: climatic, agro-technology, market, and policy. Methods, including agent-based modeling, SWAT modeling, map algebra using logistic regression, and genetic algorithms for analyzing each of these feedback mechanisms will be described. Selected early results that link sub-system models and incorporate critical feedbacks will also be presented.igure 1. Overall Modeling framework for Climate Change, Hydrology and Landscapes of America's Heartland.

  16. Gross nitrogen fluxes in intact beech-soil-microbe systems under experimentally simulated climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tejedor, Javier; Bilela, Silvija; Gasche Gasche, Rainer; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Leberecht, Martin; Bimüller, Carolin; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid; Polle, Andrea; Schloter, Michael; Rennenberg, Heinz; Dannenmann, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The vulnerability of beech forests of Central Europe to projected climate change conditions is a current matter of debate and concern. In order to investigate the response of N cycling in a typical beech forest to projected climate change conditions, we transplanted small lysimeters with intact beech-soil systems from a slope with N-exposure (representing present day climate conditions) to a slope with S exposure (serving as a warmer and drier model climate for future conditions). Lysimeters transfers within the N exposure served as control. After an equilibration period of 1 year, three isotope labeling/harvest cycles were performed: (1) comparison between N and S slopes under ambient conditions; (2) comparison between N and S slopes after intensified drought at S exposure; (3) rewetting after the drought period. Homogenous triple isotope labeling (15N/13C glutamine, 15NH4+, 15NO3-) in combination with 15N tracing and -pool dilution approaches as well as molecular analyses of nitrogen cycling genes and mycorrhiza morphotyping allowed to simultaneously quantify all N turnover processes in the intact beech-soil-microbe system. Nitrate was the major N source of beech seedlings with little importance of ammonium and no importance of glutamine. Experimental simulation of climate change resulted in significantly reduced gene copies of ammonia oxidizing bacteria in soil (AOB), a dramatic attenuation of microbial gross nitrate production from 252±83 mg N m-2 day-1 for the control treatment to 49±29 mg N m-2 day-1 for the climate change treatment and associated strong declines in soil nitrate concentrations as well as nitrate uptake by microorganisms and beech, which could not be compensated by uptake of ammonium or glutamine. Therefore, N content of beech seedlings was strongly reduced in the climate change treatment. Hence our data provide a microbial mechanism to explain nutritional limitations of beech under higher temperatures and drought and raise questions about

  17. A Bayesian approach for temporally scaling climate for modeling ecological systems.

    PubMed

    Post van der Burg, Max; Anteau, Michael J; McCauley, Lisa A; Wiltermuth, Mark T

    2016-05-01

    With climate change becoming more of concern, many ecologists are including climate variables in their system and statistical models. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a drought index that has potential advantages in modeling ecological response variables, including a flexible computation of the index over different timescales. However, little development has been made in terms of the choice of timescale for SPEI. We developed a Bayesian modeling approach for estimating the timescale for SPEI and demonstrated its use in modeling wetland hydrologic dynamics in two different eras (i.e., historical [pre-1970] and contemporary [post-2003]). Our goal was to determine whether differences in climate between the two eras could explain changes in the amount of water in wetlands. Our results showed that wetland water surface areas tended to be larger in wetter conditions, but also changed less in response to climate fluctuations in the contemporary era. We also found that the average timescale parameter was greater in the historical period, compared with the contemporary period. We were not able to determine whether this shift in timescale was due to a change in the timing of wet-dry periods or whether it was due to changes in the way wetlands responded to climate. Our results suggest that perhaps some interaction between climate and hydrologic response may be at work, and further analysis is needed to determine which has a stronger influence. Despite this, we suggest that our modeling approach enabled us to estimate the relevant timescale for SPEI and make inferences from those estimates. Likewise, our approach provides a mechanism for using prior information with future data to assess whether these patterns may continue over time. We suggest that ecologists consider using temporally scalable climate indices in conjunction with Bayesian analysis for assessing the role of climate in ecological systems. PMID:27217947

  18. A Bayesian approach for temporally scaling climate for modeling ecological systems.

    PubMed

    Post van der Burg, Max; Anteau, Michael J; McCauley, Lisa A; Wiltermuth, Mark T

    2016-05-01

    With climate change becoming more of concern, many ecologists are including climate variables in their system and statistical models. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a drought index that has potential advantages in modeling ecological response variables, including a flexible computation of the index over different timescales. However, little development has been made in terms of the choice of timescale for SPEI. We developed a Bayesian modeling approach for estimating the timescale for SPEI and demonstrated its use in modeling wetland hydrologic dynamics in two different eras (i.e., historical [pre-1970] and contemporary [post-2003]). Our goal was to determine whether differences in climate between the two eras could explain changes in the amount of water in wetlands. Our results showed that wetland water surface areas tended to be larger in wetter conditions, but also changed less in response to climate fluctuations in the contemporary era. We also found that the average timescale parameter was greater in the historical period, compared with the contemporary period. We were not able to determine whether this shift in timescale was due to a change in the timing of wet-dry periods or whether it was due to changes in the way wetlands responded to climate. Our results suggest that perhaps some interaction between climate and hydrologic response may be at work, and further analysis is needed to determine which has a stronger influence. Despite this, we suggest that our modeling approach enabled us to estimate the relevant timescale for SPEI and make inferences from those estimates. Likewise, our approach provides a mechanism for using prior information with future data to assess whether these patterns may continue over time. We suggest that ecologists consider using temporally scalable climate indices in conjunction with Bayesian analysis for assessing the role of climate in ecological systems.

  19. A Bayesian approach for temporally scaling climate for modeling ecological systems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Post van der Burg, Max; Anteau, Michael J.; McCauley, Lisa A.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.

    2016-01-01

    With climate change becoming more of concern, many ecologists are including climate variables in their system and statistical models. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a drought index that has potential advantages in modeling ecological response variables, including a flexible computation of the index over different timescales. However, little development has been made in terms of the choice of timescale for SPEI. We developed a Bayesian modeling approach for estimating the timescale for SPEI and demonstrated its use in modeling wetland hydrologic dynamics in two different eras (i.e., historical [pre-1970] and contemporary [post-2003]). Our goal was to determine whether differences in climate between the two eras could explain changes in the amount of water in wetlands. Our results showed that wetland water surface areas tended to be larger in wetter conditions, but also changed less in response to climate fluctuations in the contemporary era. We also found that the average timescale parameter was greater in the historical period, compared with the contemporary period. We were not able to determine whether this shift in timescale was due to a change in the timing of wet–dry periods or whether it was due to changes in the way wetlands responded to climate. Our results suggest that perhaps some interaction between climate and hydrologic response may be at work, and further analysis is needed to determine which has a stronger influence. Despite this, we suggest that our modeling approach enabled us to estimate the relevant timescale for SPEI and make inferences from those estimates. Likewise, our approach provides a mechanism for using prior information with future data to assess whether these patterns may continue over time. We suggest that ecologists consider using temporally scalable climate indices in conjunction with Bayesian analysis for assessing the role of climate in ecological systems.

  20. Scientific drilling and the evolution of the earth system: climate, biota, biogeochemistry and extreme systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soreghan, G. S.; Cohen, A. S.

    2013-11-01

    A US National Science Foundation-funded workshop occurred 17-19 May 2013 at the University of Oklahoma to stimulate research using continental scientific drilling to explore earth's sedimentary, paleobiological and biogeochemical record. Participants submitted 3-page "pre-proposals" to highlight projects that envisioned using drill-core studies to address scientific issues in paleobiology, paleoclimatology, stratigraphy and biogeochemistry, and to identify locations where key questions can best be addressed. The workshop was also intended to encourage US scientists to take advantage of the exceptional capacity of unweathered, continuous core records to answer important questions in the history of earth's sedimentary, biogeochemical and paleobiologic systems. Introductory talks on drilling and coring methods, plus best practices in core handling and curation, opened the workshop to enable all to understand the opportunities and challenges presented by scientific drilling. Participants worked in thematic breakout sessions to consider questions to be addressed using drill cores related to glacial-interglacial and icehouse-greenhouse transitions, records of evolutionary events and extinctions, records of major biogeochemical events in the oceans, reorganization of earth's atmosphere, Lagerstätte and exceptional fossil biota, records of vegetation-landscape change, and special sampling requirements, contamination, and coring tool concerns for paleobiology, geochemistry, geochronology, and stratigraphy-sedimentology studies. Closing discussions at the workshop focused on the role drilling can play in studying overarching science questions about the evolution of the earth system. The key theme, holding the most impact in terms of societal relevance, is understanding how climate transitions have driven biotic change, and the role of pristine, stratigraphically continuous cores in advancing our understanding of this linkage. Scientific drilling, and particularly drilling

  1. Retrofitting Air Conditioning and Duct Systems in Hot, Dry Climates

    SciTech Connect

    Shapiro, C.; Aldrich, R.; Arena, L.

    2012-07-01

    This technical report describes CARB's work with Clark County Community Resources Division in Las Vegas, Nevada, to optimize procedures for upgrading cooling systems on existing homes in the area to implement health, safety, and energy improvements. Detailed monitoring of five AC systems showed that three of the five systems met or exceeded air flow rate goals.

  2. Addressing Value and Belief Systems on Climate Literacy in the Southeastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNeal, K. S.

    2012-12-01

    The southeast (SEUS; AL, AR, GA, FL, KY, LA, NC, SC, TN, E. TX) faces the greatest impacts as a result of climate change of any region in the U.S. which presents considerable and costly adaptation challenges. Paradoxically, people in the SEUS hold attitudes and perceptions that are more dismissive of climate change than those of any other region. An additional mismatch exists between the manner in which climate science is generally communicated and the underlying core values and beliefs held by a large segment of people in the SEUS. As a result, people frequently misinterpret and/or distrust information sources, inhibiting efforts to productively discuss and consider climate change and related impacts on human and environmental systems, and possible solutions and outcomes. The Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) project includes an extensive network of partners throughout the SEUS from faith, agriculture, culturally diverse, leisure, and K-20 educator communities that aim to address this educational need through a shared vision. CLiPSE has conducted a Climate Stewardship Survey (CSS) to determine the knowledge and perceptions of individuals in and beyond the CLiPSE network. The descriptive results of the CSS indicate that religion, predominantly Protestantism, plays a minor role in climate knowledge and perceptions. Likewise, political affiliation plays a minimal role in climate knowledge and perceptions between religions. However, when Protestants were broken out by political affiliation, statistically significant differences (t(30)=2.44, p=0.02) in knowledge related to the causes of climate change exist. Those Protestants affiliated with the Democratic Party (n=206) tended to maintain a statistically significant stronger knowledge of the causes of global climate change than their Republican counterparts. When SEUS educator (n=277) group was only considered, similar trends were evidenced, indicating that strongly held beliefs potentially

  3. On the role of the Agulhas system in ocean circulation and climate.

    PubMed

    Beal, Lisa M; De Ruijter, Wilhelmus P M; Biastoch, Arne; Zahn, Rainer

    2011-04-28

    The Atlantic Ocean receives warm, saline water from the Indo-Pacific Ocean through Agulhas leakage around the southern tip of Africa. Recent findings suggest that Agulhas leakage is a crucial component of the climate system and that ongoing increases in leakage under anthropogenic warming could strengthen the Atlantic overturning circulation at a time when warming and accelerated meltwater input in the North Atlantic is predicted to weaken it. Yet in comparison with processes in the North Atlantic, the overall Agulhas system is largely overlooked as a potential climate trigger or feedback mechanism. Detailed modelling experiments--backed by palaeoceanographic and sustained modern observations--are required to establish firmly the role of the Agulhas system in a warming climate.

  4. A general scientific information system to support the study of climate-related data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Treinish, L. A.

    1984-01-01

    The development and use of NASA's Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS) are discussed. The PCDS is used as a focal point for managing and providing access to a large collection of actively used data for the Earth, ocean and atmospheric sciences. The PCDS provides uniform data catalogs, inventories, and access methods for selected NASA and non-NASA data sets. Scientific users can preview the data sets using graphical and statistical methods. The system has evolved from its original purpose as a climate data base management system in response to a national climate program, into an extensive package of capabilities to support many types of data sets from both spaceborne and surface based measurements with flexible data selection and analysis functions.

  5. Testing "What If?" Scenarios: A Process Known as System Dynamics Allows Leaders to Try out an Initiative before Actually Implementing It

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brauer, Ralph A.

    2004-01-01

    One challenge of system leadership always has been that even with the best data and research in place, with all the programmatic and political dimensions under control and with years of experience handling similar decisions, you never really know whether a policy initiative will work until you implement it. That is why anyone who has been a school…

  6. Evaluating a system of systems approach for integrated global weather, climate, and hazard monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Birk, Ronald; Baldauf, Brian; Ohlemacher, Rick; Andreoli, Leo

    2008-08-01

    Northrop Grumman Corporation (NGC) provides systems and technologies to ensure national security based on technologies - from undersea to outer space, and in cyberspace. With a heritage of developing and integrating science instruments on space platforms and airborne systems, NGC is conducting analysis of alternatives for a global observing system that integrates data collected from geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites with Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) platforms. This enhanced acquisition of environmental data will feed decision support systems such as the TouchTable ® to deliver improved decision making capabilities. Rapidly fusing and displaying multiple types of weather and ocean observations, imagery, and environmental data with geospatial data to create an integrated source of information for end users such as emergency managers and planners will deliver innovative solutions to improve disaster warning, mitigate disaster impacts, and reduce the loss of life and property. We present analysis of alternatives of combinations of sensor platforms that integrate space and airborne systems with ground and ocean observing sensors and form the basis for vertically integrated global observing systems with the capacity to improve measurements associated with hazard and climate-related uncertainties. The analyses include candidate sensors deployed on various configurations of satellites that include NPOESS, GOES R, and future configurations, augmented by UAS vehicles including Global Hawk, configured to deliver innovative environmental data collection capabilities over a range of environmental conditions, including severe hazards, such as hurricanes and extreme wildland fires. Resulting approaches are evaluated based on metrics that include their technical feasibility, capacity to be integrated with evolving Earth science models and relevant decision support tools, and life cycle costs.

  7. Motivated recall in the service of the economic system: The case of anthropogenic climate change.

    PubMed

    Hennes, Erin P; Ruisch, Benjamin C; Feygina, Irina; Monteiro, Christopher A; Jost, John T

    2016-06-01

    The contemporary political landscape is characterized by numerous divisive issues. Unlike many other issues, however, much of the disagreement about climate change centers not on how best to take action to address the problem, but on whether the problem exists at all. Psychological studies indicate that, to the extent that sustainability initiatives are seen as threatening to the socioeconomic system, individuals may downplay environmental problems in order to defend and protect the status quo. In the current research, participants were presented with scientific information about climate change and later asked to recall details of what they had learned. Individuals who were experimentally induced (Study 1) or dispositionally inclined (Studies 2 and 3) to justify the economic system misremembered the evidence to be less serious, and this was associated with increased skepticism. However, when high system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in a recovery, they recalled climate change information to be more serious than did those assigned to a control condition. When low system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in recession, they recalled the information to be less serious (Study 3). These findings suggest that because system justification can impact information processing, simply providing the public with scientific evidence may be insufficient to inspire action to mitigate climate change. However, linking environmental information to statements about the strength of the economic system may satiate system justification needs and break the psychological link between proenvironmental initiatives and economic risk. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:27123575

  8. Towards high precision hyperspectral exploration of the Earth's climate system from space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golovko, Vladimir; Kozoderov, Vladimir; Kondranin, Timofei

    A critical issue for climate change observations is that their absolute accuracy, spectral representativeness and stability of measurements are insufficient to confidently observe decadal climate change signals. The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is designed to address these concerns by processing sets of measuring Earth’s atmospheric refractivity by GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) radio occultation and hyperspectral data: high spectral resolution thermal infrared spectra emitted from the Earth (IR spectrometer), and the spectrally resolved reflected shortwave spectrum (RS spectrometer). The most urgent research problem before the active phase of the CLARREO mission starts is to elucidate an opportunity of this observation system to detect the magnitude of change of major geophysical parameters characterizing the Earth’s climate system. Information content estimates of hyperspectral data play a key role in the solution of the problem. Similar to fingerprinting, the Earth’s emitted infrared spectra and reflected solar spectra characterize the current state of the climate system. However, spatial and temporal averaging is needed to filter out “a weather noise” to select small climate changes in hyperspectral data. As a result, temporal data sets of the CLARREO system spectrometers are analyzed to find out their distinguishable capacity relative to climate changes. This presentation gives preliminary results of climate observing system simulation experiments (OSSE), based on CLARREO IR and RS instruments characteristics applied to Eastern Siberian Arctic region. The first is spectrally resolved (with 0.5 cm (-1) spectral resolution) infrared radiance emitted from the Earth to space (for the frequency of 200-2000 cm (-1) or 5-50-mum wavelength spectral range) determined with an accuracy of 0.065K (95% confidence). The second is spectrally resolved (with 4-nm resolution) nadir reflectance of solar radiation from the

  9. Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions in the Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andreae, M. O.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosols serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and thus have a powerful effect on cloud properties. Increased aerosol concentrations resulting from pollution lead to higher cloud droplet concentrations, but smaller droplet sizes. This in turn affects the physical processes inside clouds that lead to the initiation of precipitation. Depending on a number of factors, including aerosol composition, atmospheric stability, and cloud water content, increasing CCN concentrations may either decrease or increase rainfall. In convective clouds, early rain formation is suppressed, which makes more water and energy available to rise higher in the atmosphere and form ice particles. This may invigorate the dynamics of convection, encourage the formation of hail and lightning, and enhance the transport of materials to the upper troposphere. In turn, cloud processing also affects the concentrations, composition, and distribution of atmospheric aerosols. In order to understand and quantify the effects of air pollution on climate, and precipitation in particular, knowledge of natural abundance and characteristics of aerosols is as essential as the observation of perturbed conditions. I will present recent advances in the conceptual understanding of aerosol-precipitation interactions, as well as results of measurements on aerosol and cloud characteristics in pristine and polluted conditions.

  10. Toward an ultra-high resolution community climate system model for the BlueGene platform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dennis, John M.; Jacob, Robert; Vertenstein, Mariana; Craig, Tony; Loy, Raymond

    2007-07-01

    Global climate models need to simulate several small, regional-scale processes which affect the global circulation in order to accurately simulate the climate. This is particularly important in the ocean where small scale features such as oceanic eddies are currently represented with adhoc parameterizations. There is also a need for higher resolution to provide climate predictions at small, regional scales. New high-performance computing platforms such as the IBM BlueGene can provide the necessary computational power to perform ultra-high resolution climate model integrations. We have begun to investigate the scaling of the individual components of the Community Climate System Model to prepare it for integrations on BlueGene and similar platforms. Our investigations show that it is possible to successfully utilize Script O(32K) processors. We describe the scalability of five models: the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), the Community Ice CodE (CICE), the Community Land Model (CLM), and the new CCSM sequential coupler (CPL7) which are components of the next generation Community Climate System Model (CCSM); as well as the High-Order Method Modeling Environment (HOMME) which is a dynamical core currently being evaluated within the Community Atmospheric Model. For our studies we concentrate on 1/10° resolution for CICE, POP, and CLM models and 1/4° resolution for HOMME. The ability to simulate high resolutions on the massively parallel petascale systems that will dominate high-performance computing for the foreseeable future is essential to the advancement of climate science.

  11. European Monitoring Systems and Data for Assessing Environmental and Climate Impacts on Human Infectious Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Nichols, Gordon L.; Andersson, Yvonne; Lindgren, Elisabet; Devaux, Isabelle; Semenza, Jan C.

    2014-01-01

    Surveillance is critical to understanding the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The growing concern over climate and other drivers that may increase infectious disease threats to future generations has stimulated a review of the surveillance systems and environmental data sources that might be used to assess future health impacts from climate change in Europe. We present an overview of organizations, agencies and institutions that are responsible for infectious disease surveillance in Europe. We describe the surveillance systems, tracking tools, communication channels, information exchange and outputs in light of environmental and climatic drivers of infectious diseases. We discuss environmental and climatic data sets that lend themselves to epidemiological analysis. Many of the environmental data sets have a relatively uniform quality across EU Member States because they are based on satellite measurements or EU funded FP6 or FP7 projects with full EU coverage. Case-reporting systems for surveillance of infectious diseases should include clear and consistent case definitions and reporting formats that are geo-located at an appropriate resolution. This will allow linkage to environmental, social and climatic sources that will enable risk assessments, future threat evaluations, outbreak management and interventions to reduce disease burden. PMID:24722542

  12. System Dynamics to Climate-Driven Water Budget Analysis in the Eastern Snake Plains Aquifer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryu, J.; Contor, B.; Wylie, A.; Johnson, G.; Allen, R. G.

    2010-12-01

    Climate variability, weather extremes and climate change continue to threaten the sustainability of water resources in the western United States. Given current climate change projections, increasing temperature is likely to modify the timing, form, and intensity of precipitation events, which consequently affect regional and local hydrologic cycles. As a result, drought, water shortage, and subsequent water conflicts may become an increasing threat in monotone hydrologic systems in arid lands, such as the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer (ESPA). The ESPA, in particular, is a critical asset in the state of Idaho. It is known as the economic lifeblood for more than half of Idaho’s population so that water resources availability and aquifer management due to climate change is of great interest, especially over the next few decades. In this study, we apply system dynamics as a methodology with which to address dynamically complex problems in ESPA’s water resources management. Aquifer recharge and discharge dynamics are coded in STELLA modeling system as input and output, respectively to identify long-term behavior of aquifer responses to climate-driven hydrological changes.

  13. European monitoring systems and data for assessing environmental and climate impacts on human infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Nichols, Gordon L; Andersson, Yvonne; Lindgren, Elisabet; Devaux, Isabelle; Semenza, Jan C

    2014-04-01

    Surveillance is critical to understanding the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The growing concern over climate and other drivers that may increase infectious disease threats to future generations has stimulated a review of the surveillance systems and environmental data sources that might be used to assess future health impacts from climate change in Europe. We present an overview of organizations, agencies and institutions that are responsible for infectious disease surveillance in Europe. We describe the surveillance systems, tracking tools, communication channels, information exchange and outputs in light of environmental and climatic drivers of infectious diseases. We discuss environmental and climatic data sets that lend themselves to epidemiological analysis. Many of the environmental data sets have a relatively uniform quality across EU Member States because they are based on satellite measurements or EU funded FP6 or FP7 projects with full EU coverage. Case-reporting systems for surveillance of infectious diseases should include clear and consistent case definitions and reporting formats that are geo-located at an appropriate resolution. This will allow linkage to environmental, social and climatic sources that will enable risk assessments, future threat evaluations, outbreak management and interventions to reduce disease burden. PMID:24722542

  14. European monitoring systems and data for assessing environmental and climate impacts on human infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Nichols, Gordon L; Andersson, Yvonne; Lindgren, Elisabet; Devaux, Isabelle; Semenza, Jan C

    2014-04-09

    Surveillance is critical to understanding the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The growing concern over climate and other drivers that may increase infectious disease threats to future generations has stimulated a review of the surveillance systems and environmental data sources that might be used to assess future health impacts from climate change in Europe. We present an overview of organizations, agencies and institutions that are responsible for infectious disease surveillance in Europe. We describe the surveillance systems, tracking tools, communication channels, information exchange and outputs in light of environmental and climatic drivers of infectious diseases. We discuss environmental and climatic data sets that lend themselves to epidemiological analysis. Many of the environmental data sets have a relatively uniform quality across EU Member States because they are based on satellite measurements or EU funded FP6 or FP7 projects with full EU coverage. Case-reporting systems for surveillance of infectious diseases should include clear and consistent case definitions and reporting formats that are geo-located at an appropriate resolution. This will allow linkage to environmental, social and climatic sources that will enable risk assessments, future threat evaluations, outbreak management and interventions to reduce disease burden.

  15. Dynamical Downscaling NCEP Global Climate Forecast System (CFS) Seasonal Predictions Using Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, L.; Zheng, Y.; Pielke, R. A.

    2009-12-01

    As part of the NOAA CPPA-sponsored MRED project, the state-of-the-art Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) version 6.0 is used to dynamically and progressively downscale NCEP global Climate Forecast System (CFS, at 100s-km grid increment) seasonal predictions to a regional domain that covers the conterminous United States at 30-km grid increment. The first set of RCM prediction experiment focuses on the winter seasons, during which the precipitation is largely dependent on synoptic-scale mid-latitude storms and orographic dominant mesoscale processes. Our first suite of numerical experiment includes one ensemble member for each year from 1982 through 2008, with all the simulations starting on December 1 and ending on April 30. Driven by the same atmospheric and SST forcings, RAMS will be compared with other RCMs, and evaluated against observations and reanalysis (NARR) to see if the simulations capture the climatology and interannual variability of temperature and precipitation distributions. The overall strengths and weaknesses of the modeling systems will be identified, as well as the consistent model biases. In addition, we will analyze the changes in kinetic energy spectra before and after the spectral nudging algorithm is implemented. The results show that with the spectral nudging scheme, RAMS can better preserve large-scale kinetic energy than standard boundary forcing method, and allow more large-scale energy to cascade to smaller scales.

  16. A Systems Approach to Climate, Water and Diarrhea in Hubli-Dharward, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mellor, J. E.; Zimmerman, J.

    2014-12-01

    Although evidence suggests that climate change will negatively impact water resources and hence diarrheal disease rates in the developing world, there is uncertainty surrounding prior studies. This is due to the complexity of the pathways by which climate impacts diarrhea rates making it difficult to develop interventions. Therefore, our goal was to develop a mechanistic systems approach that incorporates the complex climate, human, engineered and water systems to relate climate change to diarrhea rates under future climate scenarios.To do this, we developed an agent-based model (ABM). Our agents are households and children living in Hubli-Dharward, India. The model was informed with 15 months of weather, water quality, ethnographic and diarrhea incidence data. The model's front end is a stochastic weather simulator incorporating 15 global climate models to simulate rainfall and temperature. The water quality available to agents (residents) on a model "day" is a function of the simulated day's weather and is fully validated with field data. As with the field data, as the ambient temperature increases or it rains, the quality of water available to residents in the model deteriorates. The propensity for an resident to get diarrhea is calculated with an integrated Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment model with uncertainty simulated with a bootstrap method. Other factors include hand-washing, improved water sources, household water treatment and improved sanitation.The benefits of our approach are as follows: Our mechanistic method allows us to develop scientifically derived adaptation strategies. We can quantitatively link climate scenarios with diarrhea incidence over long time periods. We can explore the complex climate and water system dynamics, rank risk factor importance, examine a broad range of scenarios and identify tipping points. Our approach is modular and expandable such that new datasets can be integrated to study climate impacts on a larger scale. Our

  17. CMIP5 Simulations with the Community Earth System Model - Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mills, M. J.; Marsh, D. R.; CalvoFernandez, N.; Kinnison, D. E.; Lamarque, J.

    2011-12-01

    We have used the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to simulate the Earth's climate from pre-industrial conditions to the end of the 21st Century in several experiments following the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) protocols. We present preliminary analysis of these coupled experiments, highlighting the effects of chemistry and physics above the troposphere on climate. WACCM was developed to understand the couplings between atmospheric layers, the role of chemical and physical processes in defining these couplings, and the interaction between the Earth's atmosphere and the Sun. The current version of WACCM spans the range of altitude from the Earth's surface to the lower thermosphere (~140 km) and is based on version 1 of the Community Earth System Model (CESM-1). WACCM has been used to predict the evolution of ozone and other radiatively active species in the middle and upper atmosphere; to study effects of the stratosphere on tropospheric climate, including the response to increased greenhouse gases; and for independent investigations. We compare climate trends in CMIP5 experiments from WACCM to those in the low-top version of CESM. We examine the coupling between the upper and lower atmosphere, including the quasi-biennial oscillation, sudden stratospheric warmings, the solar cycle, and surface climate.

  18. Importance of anthropogenic climate impact, sampling error and urban development in sewer system design.

    PubMed

    Egger, C; Maurer, M

    2015-04-15

    Urban drainage design relying on observed precipitation series neglects the uncertainties associated with current and indeed future climate variability. Urban drainage design is further affected by the large stochastic variability of precipitation extremes and sampling errors arising from the short observation periods of extreme precipitation. Stochastic downscaling addresses anthropogenic climate impact by allowing relevant precipitation characteristics to be derived from local observations and an ensemble of climate models. This multi-climate model approach seeks to reflect the uncertainties in the data due to structural errors of the climate models. An ensemble of outcomes from stochastic downscaling allows for addressing the sampling uncertainty. These uncertainties are clearly reflected in the precipitation-runoff predictions of three urban drainage systems. They were mostly due to the sampling uncertainty. The contribution of climate model uncertainty was found to be of minor importance. Under the applied greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B) and within the period 2036-2065, the potential for urban flooding in our Swiss case study is slightly reduced on average compared to the reference period 1981-2010. Scenario planning was applied to consider urban development associated with future socio-economic factors affecting urban drainage. The impact of scenario uncertainty was to a large extent found to be case-specific, thus emphasizing the need for scenario planning in every individual case. The results represent a valuable basis for discussions of new drainage design standards aiming specifically to include considerations of uncertainty.

  19. Importance of anthropogenic climate impact, sampling error and urban development in sewer system design.

    PubMed

    Egger, C; Maurer, M

    2015-04-15

    Urban drainage design relying on observed precipitation series neglects the uncertainties associated with current and indeed future climate variability. Urban drainage design is further affected by the large stochastic variability of precipitation extremes and sampling errors arising from the short observation periods of extreme precipitation. Stochastic downscaling addresses anthropogenic climate impact by allowing relevant precipitation characteristics to be derived from local observations and an ensemble of climate models. This multi-climate model approach seeks to reflect the uncertainties in the data due to structural errors of the climate models. An ensemble of outcomes from stochastic downscaling allows for addressing the sampling uncertainty. These uncertainties are clearly reflected in the precipitation-runoff predictions of three urban drainage systems. They were mostly due to the sampling uncertainty. The contribution of climate model uncertainty was found to be of minor importance. Under the applied greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B) and within the period 2036-2065, the potential for urban flooding in our Swiss case study is slightly reduced on average compared to the reference period 1981-2010. Scenario planning was applied to consider urban development associated with future socio-economic factors affecting urban drainage. The impact of scenario uncertainty was to a large extent found to be case-specific, thus emphasizing the need for scenario planning in every individual case. The results represent a valuable basis for discussions of new drainage design standards aiming specifically to include considerations of uncertainty. PMID:25644630

  20. Deep cognitive imaging systems enable estimation of continental-scale fire incidence from climate data

    PubMed Central

    Dutta, Ritaban; Aryal, Jagannath; Das, Aruneema; Kirkpatrick, Jamie B.

    2013-01-01

    Unplanned fire is a major control on the nature of terrestrial ecosystems and causes substantial losses of life and property. Given the substantial influence of climatic conditions on fire incidence, climate change is expected to substantially change fire regimes in many parts of the world. We wished to determine whether it was possible to develop a deep neural network process for accurately estimating continental fire incidence from publicly available climate data. We show that deep recurrent Elman neural network was the best performed out of ten artificial neural networks (ANN) based cognitive imaging systems for determining the relationship between fire incidence and climate. In a decennium data experiment using this ANN we show that it is possible to develop highly accurate estimations of fire incidence from monthly climatic data surfaces. Our estimations for the continent of Australia had over 90% global accuracy and a very low level of false negatives. The technique is thus appropriate for use in estimating the spatial consequences of climate scenarios on the monthly incidence of wildfire at the landscape scale. PMID:24220174

  1. Extending Climate Analytics-As to the Earth System Grid Federation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tamkin, G.; Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; McInerney, M.; Nadeau, D.; Li, J.; Strong, S.; Thompson, J. H.

    2015-12-01

    We are building three extensions to prior-funded work on climate analytics-as-a-service that will benefit the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) as it addresses the Big Data challenges of future climate research: (1) We are creating a cloud-based, high-performance Virtual Real-Time Analytics Testbed supporting a select set of climate variables from six major reanalysis data sets. This near real-time capability will enable advanced technologies like the Cloudera Impala-based Structured Query Language (SQL) query capabilities and Hadoop-based MapReduce analytics over native NetCDF files while providing a platform for community experimentation with emerging analytic technologies. (2) We are building a full-featured Reanalysis Ensemble Service comprising monthly means data from six reanalysis data sets. The service will provide a basic set of commonly used operations over the reanalysis collections. The operations will be made accessible through NASA's climate data analytics Web services and our client-side Climate Data Services (CDS) API. (3) We are establishing an Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) WPS-compliant Web service interface to our climate data analytics service that will enable greater interoperability with next-generation ESGF capabilities. The CDS API will be extended to accommodate the new WPS Web service endpoints as well as ESGF's Web service endpoints. These activities address some of the most important technical challenges for server-side analytics and support the research community's requirements for improved interoperability and improved access to reanalysis data.

  2. Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system: from past to future

    SciTech Connect

    Arneth, A.; Harrison, S. P.; Zaehle, S.; Tsigaridis, K; Menon, S; Bartlein, P.J.; Feichter, J; Korhola, A; Kulmala, M; O'Donnell, D; Schurgers, G; Sorvari, S; Vesala, T

    2010-01-05

    The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the regulation of atmospheric composition, and hence climate, through multiple interlinked biogeochemical cycles (BGC). Ice-core and other palaeoenvironmental records show a fast response of vegetation cover and exchanges with the atmosphere to past climate change, although the phasing of these responses reflects spatial patterning and complex interactions between individual biospheric feedbacks. Modern observations show a similar responsiveness of terrestrial biogeochemical cycles to anthropogenically-forced climate changes and air pollution, with equally complex feedbacks. For future conditions, although carbon cycle-climate interactions have been a major focus, other BGC feedbacks could be as important in modulating climate changes. The additional radiative forcing from terrestrial BGC feedbacks other than those conventionally attributed to the carbon cycle is in the range of 0.6 to 1.6 Wm{sup -2}; all taken together we estimate a possible maximum of around 3 Wm{sup -2} towards the end of the 21st century. There are large uncertainties associated with these estimates but, given that the majority of BGC feedbacks result in a positive forcing because of the fundamental link between metabolic stimulation and increasing temperature, improved quantification of these feedbacks and their incorporation in earth system models is necessary in order to develop coherent plans to manage ecosystems for climate mitigation.

  3. Load calculation and system evaluation for electric vehicle climate control

    SciTech Connect

    Aceves-Saborio, S.; Comfort, W.J. III

    1993-10-27

    Providing air conditioning for electric vehicles (EVs) represents an important challenge, because vapor compression air conditioners, which are common in gasoline powered vehicles, may consume a substantial part of the total energy stored in the EV battery. This report consists of two major parts. The first part is a cooling and heating load calculation for electric vehicles. The second part is an evaluation of several systems that can be used to provide the desired cooling and heating in EVs. Four cases are studied. Short range and full range EVs are each analyzed twice, first with the regular vehicle equipment, and then with a fan and heat reflecting windows, to reduce hot soak. Recent legislation has allowed the use of combustion heating whenever the ambient temperature drops below 5{degrees}C. This has simplified the problem of heating, and made cooling the most important problem. Therefore, systems described in this project are designed for cooling, and their applicability to heating at temperatures above 5{degrees}C is described. If the air conditioner systems cannot be used to cover the whole heating load at 5{degrees}C, then the vehicle requires a complementary heating system (most likely a heat recovery system or electric resistance heating). Air conditioners are ranked according to their overall weight. The overall weight is calculated by adding the system weight and the weight of the battery necessary to provide energy for system operation.

  4. The Characteristics of Earth System Thinking of Science Gifted Students in relation to Climate Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chung, Duk Ho; Cho, Kyu Seong; Hong, Deok Pyo; Park, Kyeong Jin

    2016-04-01

    This study aimed to investigate the perception of earth system thinking of science gifted students in future problem solving (FPS) in relation to climate changes. In order to this study, the research problem associated with climate changes was developed through a literature review. The thirty seven science gifted students participated in lessons. The ideas in problem solving process of science gifted students were analyzed using the semantic network analysis method. The results are as follows. In the problem solving processes, science gifted students are ''changes of the sunlight by water layer'', ''changes of the Earth''s temperature'', ''changes of the air pressure'', '' change of the wind and weather''were represented in order. On other hand, regard to earth system thinking for climate changes, while science gifted students were used sub components related to atmospheres frequently, they were used sub components related to biosphere, geosphere, and hydrosphere a little. But, the analytical results of the structural relationship between the sub components related to earth system, they were recognised that biosphere, geosphere, and hydrosphere used very important in network structures. In conclusion, science gifted students were understood well that components of the earth system are influencing each other. Keywords : Science gifted students, Future problem solving, Climate change, Earth system thinking

  5. Developing the evidence base for mainstreaming adaptation of stormwater systems to climate change.

    PubMed

    Gersonius, B; Nasruddin, F; Ashley, R; Jeuken, A; Pathirana, A; Zevenbergen, C

    2012-12-15

    In a context of high uncertainty about hydro-climatic variables, the development of updated methods for climate impact and adaptation assessment is as important, if not more important than the provision of improved climate change data. In this paper, we introduce a hybrid method to facilitate mainstreaming adaptation of stormwater systems to climate change: i.e., the Mainstreaming method. The Mainstreaming method starts with an analysis of adaptation tipping points (ATPs), which is effect-based. These are points of reference where the magnitude of climate change is such that acceptable technical, environmental, societal or economic standards may be compromised. It extends the ATP analysis to include aspects from a bottom-up approach. The extension concerns the analysis of adaptation opportunities in the stormwater system. The results from both analyses are then used in combination to identify and exploit Adaptation Mainstreaming Moments (AMMs). Use of this method will enhance the understanding of the adaptive potential of stormwater systems. We have applied the proposed hybrid method to the management of flood risk for an urban stormwater system in Dordrecht (the Netherlands). The main finding of this case study is that the application of the Mainstreaming method helps to increase the no-/low-regret character of adaptation for several reasons: it focuses the attention on the most urgent effects of climate change; it is expected to lead to potential cost reductions, since adaptation options can be integrated into infrastructure and building design at an early stage instead of being applied separately; it will lead to the development of area-specific responses, which could not have been developed on a higher scale level; it makes it possible to take account of local values and sensibilities, which contributes to increased public and political support for the adaptive strategies.

  6. Transportation and Climate Change: The Potential for Hydrogen Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Geffen, Charlette A.; Edmonds, James A.; Kim, Son H.

    2004-03-31

    New technologies are being developed to serve the growing energy needs of the transportation sector without the environmental impacts observed with conventional technologies. In a world where emissions of carbon are severely constrained, hydrogen-powered vehicles (using fuel cells, internal combustion engines, or other) may be the best alternative for meeting societal needs. Programs to develop these technologies have emerged as high priorities for the automotive and energy industries, as well as governments worldwide. There are a number of challenges that must be faced, however, before we can effectively transition the current fossil fuel based system to a future hydrogen (H2) based system for the mobility industry. Full conversion of the existing transportation system will require concurrent availability of appropriate fuel sources and related infrastructure at acceptable costs and with a clear understanding of their environmental implications. This paper provides a framework for evaluating the challenges and potential pathways for the transition from our current petroleum-based energy sources for transportation systems to a future hydrogen-based system. A preliminary evaluation of the implications of moving to a hydrogen-based transportation system was conducted using the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) integrated assessment model that evaluates the economic and environmental implications of various technology options. Future research activities will focus on alternative development pathways that consider infrastructure requirements and impacts as well as sequential, complementary and competitive technology development interactions.

  7. Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weindl, Isabelle; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander; Müller, Christoph; Havlík, Petr; Herrero, Mario; Schmitz, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne

    2015-09-01

    Livestock farming is the world’s largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource- and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction.

  8. SEBAL-based Daily Actual Evapotranspiration Forecasting using Wavelets Decomposition Analysis and Multivariate Relevance Vector Machines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torres, A. F.

    2011-12-01

    Agricultural lands are sources of food and energy for population around the globe. These lands are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change including variations in rainfall regimes, weather patterns, and decreased availability of water for irrigation. In addition, it is not unusual that irrigated agriculture is forced to divert less water in order to make it available for other uses, e.g. human consumption and others. As part of implementation of better policies for water control and management, irrigation companies and water user associations have been implemented water conveyance and distribution monitoring systems along with soil moisture sensors networks in the last decades. These systems allow them to manage and distribute water among the users based on their requirements and water availability while collecting information about actual soil moisture conditions in representative crop fields. In spite of this, requested water deliveries by farmers/water users is based typically on total water share, traditions and past experience on irrigation, which in most cases do not correspond to the actual crop evapotranspiration, already affected by climate change. Therefore it is necessary to provide actual information about the crop water requirements to water users/managers, so they can better quantify the required vs. available water for the irrigation events along the irrigation season. To estimate the actual evapotranspiration in a spatial extent the Sensitivity Analysis of the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) algorithm has demonstrated its effectiveness using satellite or airborne data. Nonetheless the estimation is restricted to the day when the geospatial information was obtained. Without information of precise future daily water crop demand there is a continuous challenge for the implementation of better water distribution and management policies in the irrigation system. The purpose of this study is to investigate the plausibility of using

  9. 2014 Earth System Grid Federation and Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools Conference Report

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, Dean N.

    2015-01-27

    The climate and weather data science community met December 9–11, 2014, in Livermore, California, for the fourth annual Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT) Face-to-Face (F2F) Conference, hosted by the Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the European Infrastructure for the European Network of Earth System Modelling, and the Australian Department of Education. Both ESGF and UVCDATremain global collaborations committed to developing a new generation of open-source software infrastructure that provides distributed access and analysis to simulated and observed data from the climate and weather communities. The tools and infrastructure created under these international multi-agency collaborations are critical to understanding extreme weather conditions and long-term climate change. In addition, the F2F conference fosters a stronger climate and weather data science community and facilitates a stronger federated software infrastructure. The 2014 F2F conference detailed the progress of ESGF, UV-CDAT, and other community efforts over the year and sets new priorities and requirements for existing and impending national and international community projects, such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six. Specifically discussed at the conference were project capabilities and enhancements needs for data distribution, analysis, visualization, hardware and network infrastructure, standards, and resources.

  10. Framework for studying the hydrological impact of climate change in an alley cropping system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hallema, Dennis W.; Rousseau, Alain N.; Gumiere, Silvio J.; Périard, Yann; Hiemstra, Paul H.; Bouttier, Léa; Fossey, Maxime; Paquette, Alain; Cogliastro, Alain; Olivier, Alain

    2014-09-01

    Alley cropping is an agroforestry practice whereby crops are grown between hedgerows of trees planted at wide spacings. The local climate and the physiological adaptation mechanisms of the trees are key factors in the growth and survival of the trees and intercrops, because they directly affect the soil moisture distribution. In order to evaluate the long-term hydrological impact of climate change in an alley cropping system in eastern Canada, we developed a framework that combines local soil moisture data with local projections of climate change and a model of soil water movement, root uptake and evapotranspiration. Forty-five frequency domain reflectometers (FDR) along a transect perpendicular to the tree rows generated a two-year dataset that we used for the parameterization and evaluation of the model. An impact study with simulations based on local projections of three global and one regional climate simulation suggest that the soil becomes drier overall in the period between 2041 and 2070, while the number of critically wet periods with a length of one day increases slightly with respect to the reference period between 1967 and 1996. Hydrological simulations based on a fourth climate scenario however point toward wetter conditions. In all cases the changes are minor. Although our simulations indicate that the experimental alley cropping system will possibly suffer drier conditions in response to higher temperatures and increased evaporative demand, these conditions are not necessarily critical for vegetation during the snow-free season.

  11. Model systems for a no-analog future: species associations and climates during the last deglaciation.

    PubMed

    Williams, John W; Blois, Jessica L; Gill, Jacquelyn L; Gonzales, Leila M; Grimm, Eric C; Ordonez, Alejandro; Shuman, Bryan; Veloz, Samuel D

    2013-09-01

    As the earth system moves to a novel state, model systems (experimental, observational, paleoecological) are needed to assess and improve the predictive accuracy of ecological models under environments with no contemporary analog. In recent years, we have intensively studied the no-analog plant associations and climates in eastern North America during the last deglaciation to better constrain their spatiotemporal distribution, test hypotheses about climatic and megaherbivory controls, and assess the accuracy of species- and community-level models. The formation of no-analog plant associations was asynchronous, beginning first in the south-central United States; at sites in the north-central United States, it is linked to declining megafaunal abundances. Insolation and temperature were more seasonal than present, creating climates currently nonexistent in North America, and shifting species-climate relationships for some taxa. These shifts pose a common challenge to empirical paleoclimatic reconstructions, species distribution models (SDMs), and conservation-optimization models based on SDMs. Steps forward include combining recent and paleoecological data to more fully describe species' fundamental niches, employing community-level models to model shifts in species interactions under no-analog climates, and assimilating paleoecological data with mechanistic ecosystem models. Accurately modeling species interactions under novel environments remains a fundamental challenge for all forms of ecological models. PMID:23981247

  12. Planetary boundary layer as an essential component of the earth's climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davy, Richard; Esau, Igor

    2015-04-01

    Following the traditional engineering approach proposed by Prandtl, the turbulent planetary boundary layers (PBLs) are considered in the climate science as complex, non-linear, essential but nevertheless subordinated components of the earth's climate system. Correspondingly, the temperature variations, dT - a popular and practically important measure of the climate variability, are seen as the system's response to the external heat forcing, Q, e.g. in the energy balance model of the type dT=Q/C (1). The moderation of this response by non-linear feedbacks embedded in the effective heat capacity, C, are to a large degree overlooked. The effective heat capacity is globally determined by the depth of the ocean mixed layer (on multi-decadal and longer time scales) but regionally, over the continents, C is much smaller and determined (on decadal time scales) by the depth, h, of the PBL. The present understanding of the climatological features of turbulent boundary layers is set by the works of Frankignoul & Hasselmann (1976) and Manabe & Stauffer (1980). The former explained how large-scale climate anomalies could be generated in the case of a large C (in the sea surface temperature) by the delta-correlated stochastic forcing (white noise). The latter demonstrated that the climate response to a given forcing is moderated by the depth, h, so that in the shallow PBL the signal should be significantly amplified. At present there are more than 3000 publications (ISI Web of Knowledge) which detail this understanding but the physical mechanisms, which control the boundary layer depth, and statistical relationships between the turbulent and climatological measures remain either unexplored or incorrectly attributed. In order to identify the climatic role of the PBL, the relationships between the PBL depth, h, - as the integral measure of the turbulent processes and micro-circulations due to the surface heterogeneity - and the climatic variability (variations and trends) of

  13. School Climate.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindelow, John; Mazzarella, Jo Ann

    Chapter 7 of a volume on school leadership, this chapter defines, describes, and suggests ways to improve climate at the school building level. After citing a number of definitions of school climate, the authors conclude that school climate is the feel an individual gets from experiences within a school system, or the global summation of the…

  14. Climate Informatics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Monteleoni, Claire; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Alexander, Francis J.; Niculescu-Mizil, Alexandru; Steinhaeuser, Karsten; Tippett, Michael; Banerjee, Arindam; Blumenthal, M. Benno; Ganguly, Auroop R.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Tedesco, Marco

    2013-01-01

    The impacts of present and potential future climate change will be one of the most important scientific and societal challenges in the 21st century. Given observed changes in temperature, sea ice, and sea level, improving our understanding of the climate system is an international priority. This system is characterized by complex phenomena that are imperfectly observed and even more imperfectly simulated. But with an ever-growing supply of climate data from satellites and environmental sensors, the magnitude of data and climate model output is beginning to overwhelm the relatively simple tools currently used to analyze them. A computational approach will therefore be indispensable for these analysis challenges. This chapter introduces the fledgling research discipline climate informatics: collaborations between climate scientists and machine learning researchers in order to bridge this gap between data and understanding. We hope that the study of climate informatics will accelerate discovery in answering pressing questions in climate science.

  15. A Climate Observing System: Where are we, Where are we Going?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbott, M. R.

    2001-12-01

    Climate research and monitoring have both an "operational" and a "research" element. "Operational" implies a long-term commitment to the mission, such as ensuring that there are few gaps in the data record, that the data are acquired and preserved, and that mission costs remain affordable. Operational missions have broad mandates in regards to data acquisition. On the other hand, research missions are focused on specific scientific questions. There is less urgency to maintain absolute data continuity. An observational strategy for climate research requires a blend of long-term, carefully calibrated measurements (which are sometimes perceived to be the purview of the operational agencies) as well as short-term, focused process studies (which are perceived to be the purview of the research agencies.) Although long time series are used to detect climate change, many processes, such as ocean circulation, are only revealed on decadal scales. Thus such time series often fill a dual role of climate change detection as well as process study. The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) represents an enormous opportunity, but its implementation for climate research and monitoring requires considerable thought, planning, and leadership. Coordination with NASA research satellites, integration of new technology and new capabilities, attention to data stability and continuity, and scientific insight into data processing are some of the issues facing NPOESS. Climate observing systems will require a strong research element for a long time to come. Although some aspects of the observing system can be turned over to an operational agency, it is clear that we still need more research and analysis on climate processes, sampling strategies, and processing algorithms. An appropriate forum is needed where discussions of the balance of climate observing requirements for research with short-term forecasting requirements can take place. At present, such

  16. Influence of human-climate system feedbacks on predicted 21st century land use/land cover trajectories, fossil fuel emissions, and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thornton, P. E.; Edmonds, J. A.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Hurtt, G. C.; Shi, X.; Mao, J.; Thomson, A. M.; Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.

    2012-12-01

    The interaction between human system and climate system models in the current climate change assessment framework is based on one-way coupling, in which estimates of human actions such as land use and land cover change (LULCC), and fossil fuel combustion, are generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and passed as forcing functions to Earth system models (ESMs). By neglecting the return flow of information from the physical climate and biogeochemical systems, inconsistencies are inevitably introduced in this one-way coupling approach. We are developing an integrated Earth System Model (iESM) to characterize, address, and minimize these inconsistencies, by merging the capabilities of IAMs and ESMs in a single coupling framework. Here, we have applied the iESM to estimate the impact of two-way interactions between LULCC and climate on the evolution of the coupled human-climate system over the 21st century. Our simulations followed the Reference Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, a member of the recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project v5 (CMIP5) family of climate system scenarios. We compared a traditional RCP4.5 simulation from the Community Earth System Model v1 (CESM1) coupled climate-biogeochemistry model with an iESM simulation in which the estimation of LULCC dynamics was performed synchronously with the physical climate simulation. As a first step in a series of planned coupling exercises, we evaluated the influence of a very simple feedback mechanism, in which information generated within the physical-biogeochemical model components was passed back to the human dimensions component by way of a set of scalars capturing the effects of changing climate on terrestrial ecosystem productivity. This mechanism provides a signal within the human system component model modifying crop yields, bioenergy potential, and pasture and forest productivity in response to climate change, including changes in temperature, precipitation, CO2 concentrations, and

  17. Cold-Climate Solar Domestic Hot Water Systems: Cost/Benefit Analysis and Opportunities for Improvement

    SciTech Connect

    Burch, J.; Hillman, T.; Salasovich, J.

    2005-01-01

    To determine potential for reduction in the cost of saved energy (COSE) for cold-climate solar domestic hot water (SDHW) systems, COSE was computed for three types of cold climate water heating systems. For each system, a series of cost-saving measures was considered: (1) balance of systems (BOS): tank, heat exchanger, and piping-valving measures; and (2) four alternative lower-cost collectors. Given all beneficial BOS measures in place, >50% reduction of COSE was achievable only with selective polymer collectors at half today's selective collector cost. In all three system types, today's metal-glass selective collector achieved the same COSE as the hypothesized non-selective polymer collector.

  18. Response of the Vegetation-Climate System to High Temperature (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berry, J. A.

    2009-12-01

    High temperature extremes may lead to inhibition of photosynthesis and stomatal closure at the leaf scale. When these responses occur over regional scales, they can initiate a positive feedback loop in the coupled vegetation-climate system. The fraction of net radiation that is used by the land surface to evaporate water decreases leading to deeper, drier boundary layers, fewer clouds, increased solar radiation reaching the surface, and possibility reduced precipitation. These interactions within the vegetation-climate system may amplify natural (or greenhouse gas forced) variations in temperature and further stress the vegetation. Properly modeling of this system depends, among other things, on getting the plant responses to high temperature correct. I will review the current state of this problem and present some studies of rain forest trees to high temperature and drought conducted in the Biosphere 2 enclosure that illustrate how experiments in controlled systems can contribute to our understanding of complex systems to extreme events.

  19. Evaluating potential dryland cropping systems adapted to climate change in the Central Great Plains

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate in the semi-arid Central Great Plains is expected to become warmer and drier in coming decades, with potentially greater variability in precipitation and temperature. Cropping systems that include forages and allow flexibility for determining if a crop should be planted and which crop to pla...

  20. Climate Science: How Earth System Models are Reshaping the Science Policy Interface.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex

    2015-01-01

    This talk is oriented at a general audience including the largest French utility company, and will describe the basics of climate change before moving into emissions scenarios and agricultural impacts that we can test with our earth system models and impacts models.

  1. Effects of cropping and tillage systems on soil erosion under climate change in Oklahoma

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Soil erosion under future climate change is very likely to increase due to projected increases in frequency and magnitude of heavy storms. The objective of this study is to quantify the effects of common cropping and tillage systems on soil erosion and surface runoff during 2010-2039 in central Okl...

  2. Cropping and tillage systems effects on soil erosion under climate change in Oklahoma

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Soil erosion under future climate change is very likely to increase due to projected increases in frequency and magnitude of heavy storms. The objective of this study is to quantify the effects of common cropping and tillage systems on soil erosion and surface runoff during 2010-2039 in central Okl...

  3. Energy, environment and climate assessment using the MARKAL energy system model

    EPA Science Inventory

    As part of EPA ORD’s efforts to develop an understanding of the potential environmental impacts of future changes in energy use, the Energy and Climate Assessment Team has developed a database representation of the U.S. energy system for use with the MARKet ALlocation (MARK...

  4. High Performance Work System, HRD Climate and Organisational Performance: An Empirical Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Muduli, Ashutosh

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to study the relationship between high-performance work system (HPWS) and organizational performance and to examine the role of human resource development (HRD) Climate in mediating the relationship between HPWS and the organizational performance in the context of the power sector of India. Design/methodology/approach: The…

  5. Climate change impacts on dryland cropping systems in the central Great Plains, USA

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agricultural systems models are essential tools to assess potential climate change (CC) impacts on crop production and help guide policy decisions. In this study, impacts of GCM projected CC on dryland crop rotations of wheat-fallow (WF), wheat-corn-fallow (WCF), and wheat-corn-millet (WCM) at Akro...

  6. Building a Global Federation System for Climate Change Research: The Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET)

    SciTech Connect

    Ananthakrishnan, R.; Bernholdt, D. E.; Bharathi, S.; Brown, D.; Chen, M.; Chervenak, A. L.; Cinquini, L.; Drach, R.; Foster, I.; Fox, P.; Fraser, D.; Halliday, K.; Hankin, S.; Jones, P.; Kesselman, C.; Middleton, J. E.; Schwidder, J.; Schweitzer, R.; Schuler, R.; Shoshani, A.; Siebenlist, F.; Sim, A.; Strand, W. G.; Wilhelmi, N.; Su, M.; Williams, Dean N.

    2007-07-13

    The recent release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (AR4) has generated significant media attention. Much has been said about the U.S. role in this report, which included significant support from the Department of Energy through the Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) and other Department of Energy (DOE) programs for climate model development and the production execution of simulations. The SciDAC-supported Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) also played a major role in the IPCC AR4: all of the simulation data that went into the report was made available to climate scientists worldwide exclusively via the ESG-CET. At the same time as the IPCC AR4 database was being developed, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), a leading U.S. climate science laboratory and a ESG participant, began publishing model runs from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), and its predecessor the Parallel Coupled Model (PCM) through ESG. In aggregate, ESG-CET provides seamless access to over 250 terabytes of distributed climate simulation data to over 6,000 registered users worldwide, who have taken delivery of more than 280 terabytes from the archive. Not only does this represent a substantial advance in scientific knowledge, it is also a major step forward in how we conduct the research process on a global scale. Moving forward, the next IPCC assessment report, AR5, will demand multi-site metadata federation for data discovery and cross-domain identity management for single signon of users in a more diverse federation enterprise environment. Towards this aim, ESG is leading the effort in the climate community towards standardization of material for the global federation of metadata, security, and data services required to standardize, analyze, and access data worldwide.

  7. Climate, Hydrology, and Lake Sediment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ito, E.; Forester, R. M.

    2008-12-01

    Components of lake sediment such as endogenic minerals, organic compounds, and fossils as well as chemistry and isotopes of those components are sources of information about past continental climate. No matter the size of the lake, the components of their sedimentary records reflect some integration of catchment processes operating on the landscape, within the ground water, and in the lake. Climate change influences and often drives change among these processes, yet the integration of the processes commonly yields unique records in lakes residing under the same climate. An estimate of the actual climate history from lake records as opposed to the apparent climate history from a given lake depends on how well we understand the modern system, or in the absence of a modern system, making use of known modern systems. We single out the effect of hydrology on lake records to illustrate the importance of understanding the modern system. The Waubay Lakes Chain in NE South Dakota is a series of lakes at different elevations and spill points that may be hydrologically connected, even coalescing, or may be isolated, though some remain hydrologically open (Niehus et al. 1999). Pickerel is an "upland" open freshwater lake whose level remains nearly constant, while Waubay is a shallow lake at intermediate elevation having more changes in level and salinity. Bitter, at the lowest elevation, receives spillover from Waubay during high water periods, exhibits wide ranges of salinity and elevation including going dry. Pickerel has a short residence time with lower δ18O and TDS than Waubay and Bitter (08/1991: -4.1 permil, -1.5 permil, and -1.8 permil; 204 mg/L, 6,420 mg/L, and 13,128mg/L respectively). The three lakes see the same climate, but their hydrologies lead to these different characteristics that interpreted in climate terms would suggest Pickerel resides under a wet climate while Bitter resides under a dry climate. The sediment records from these lakes though incompletely

  8. Long-term climate sensitivity of an integrated water supply system: The role of irrigation.

    PubMed

    Guyennon, Nicolas; Romano, Emanuele; Portoghese, Ivan

    2016-09-15

    The assessment of the impact of long-term climate variability on water supply systems depends not only on possible variations of the resources availability, but also on the variation of the demand. In this framework, a robust estimation of direct (climate induced) and indirect (anthropogenically induced) effects of climate change is mandatory to design mitigation measures, especially in those regions of the planet where the groundwater equilibrium is strongly perturbed by exploitations for irrigation purposes. The main goal of this contribution is to propose a comprehensive model that integrates distributed crop water requirements with surface and groundwater mass balance, able to consider management rules of the water supply system. The proposed overall model, implemented, calibrated and validated for the case study of the Fortore water supply system (Apulia region, South Italy), permits to simulate the conjunctive use of the water from a surface artificial reservoir and from groundwater. The relative contributions of groundwater recharges and withdrawals to the aquifer stress have been evaluated under different climate perturbations, with emphasis on irrigation practices. Results point out that irrigated agriculture primarily affects groundwater discharge, indicating that ecosystem services connected to river base flow are particularly exposed to climate variation in irrigated areas. Moreover, findings show that the recharge both to surface and to groundwater is mainly affected by drier climate conditions, while hotter conditions have a major impact on the water demand. The non-linearity arising from combined drier and hotter conditions may exacerbate the aquifer stress by exposing it to massive sea-water intrusion. PMID:27161129

  9. Education and Climate Change--Some Systemic Connections

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ainley, Patrick

    2008-01-01

    Unlike most papers on education and ecology, this one is not concerned with the content of education but its organisation as a system and hence its "purpose" or "finality". The central contention of the paper, which takes English education and training (or "learning") as a case in point, is that in a new market-state formation the pursuit of…

  10. Impact of climate change on human health and health systems in Tanzania: a review.

    PubMed

    Mboera, Leonard E G; Mayala, Benjamin K; Kweka, Eliningaya J; Mazigo, Humphrey D

    2011-12-01

    Climate change (CC) has a number of immediate and long-term impacts on the fundamental determinants of human health. A number of potential human health effects have been associated either directly or indirectly with global climate change. Vulnerability to the risks associated with CC may exacerbate ongoing socio-economic challenges. The objective of this review was to analyse the potential risk and vulnerability in the context of climate-sensitive human diseases and health system in Tanzania. Climate sensitive vector- and waterborne diseases and other health related problems and the policies on climate adaptation in Tanzania during the past 50 years are reviewed. The review has shown that a number of climate-associated infectious disease epidemics have been reported in various areas of the country; mostly being associated with increase in precipitation and temperature. Although, there is no single policy document that specifically addresses issues of CC in the country, the National Environmental Management Act of 1997 recognizes the importance of CC and calls for the government to put up measures to address the phenomenon. A number of strategies and action plans related to CC are also in place. These include the National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan, the National Action Programme, and the National Bio-safety Framework. The government has put in place a National Climate Change Steering Committee and the National Climate Change Technical Committee to oversee and guide the implementation of CC activities in the country. Recognizing the adverse impacts of natural disasters and calamities, the government established a Disaster Management Division under the Prime Minister's Office. Epidemic Preparedness and Response Unit of the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare is responsible for emergency preparedness, mostly disease outbreaks. However, specific climate changes associated with human health issues are poorly addressed in the MoHSW strategies and the national

  11. The Imbalance and Self-Organization in the Earth's Climate System (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maslov, L.

    2013-12-01

    The increase in frequency and severity of storms, hurricanes and other atmospheric phenomena indicates a progressive imbalance in all planetary systems. Study of the temperature curve obtained from the Antarctic ice core showed that this data can be considered as a sum of two components: the 'cyclic' component and the 'stochastic' component, representing two different but tightly interconnected processes. The 'cyclic' and the 'stochastic' components represent two different types of self-organization of the Earth's climate system. The self-organization in the 'cyclic' process is a non-linear reaction of the Earth's climate system, as a whole, to the input of solar radiation. The self-organization in the 'stochastic' part is a self-organized nonlinear critical process, taking energy from, and fluctuating around the 'cyclic' part of the temperature variations. As a whole, the Earth's climate can be characterized as a nonlinear, self-organized, dynamic system with two levels of self-organization. This research can shed some light on the global climate imbalance and help us to understand the current trends in global weather and to predict global weather trends in the distant and not so distant future. First of all, global warming, as can be seen in repeated high temperature spikes in temperature cycles, has happened in every past climate cycle. The present interglacial period lasts a little bit longer than previous similar periods. This can be because of additional warming caused by human industrial activity. But, following the 'cyclic' pattern of glacial and interglacial temperature cycles, one can conclude that we are at the very beginning of a gradual cooling period to temperatures below freezing. This process is accompanied by sharp and intense fluctuations of temperature, represented by the 'stochastic' part of global temperature curve. Atmospheric temperature fluctuations are the direct result, and at the same time, a cause of atmospheric imbalance. It is

  12. Stability of Antarctic Ice Shelves and Their Role in the Global Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lange, M. A.; Grosfeld, K.; Macayeal, D. R.; Saheicha, K.

    2003-12-01

    The Earth's radiation budget, a key determinant of global climate, depends critically on the spatial distribution of surface albedos of our planet. Climate is also driven by major oceanic transport and exchange processes. In that regard, the polar regions play a particularly decisive role. While attention has so far mainly been paid to the annual and inter-annual variability of polar sea ice covers, a number of recent dramatic changes, i.e., the disintegration of the Larsen A- and parts of Larsen B Ice Shelves as well as the major calving events of Filchner-Ronne- and Ross Ice Shelves have led to renewed interest in the role of ice shelves for the global climate system. In this regard, it is not only the disintegration of ice shelves itself that is of particular concern. Ice shelves are known to play a distinct role in the overall stability of the (West-) Antarctic Ice Sheet. Thus, ice shelf disintegration could lead to instability of (parts of) the Antarctic ice cover, with corresponding consequences for the global albedo. Furthermore, the disintegration of major ice shelves will ultimately lead to a significant change of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation with widespread implications for the world ocean and ultimately global climate. In this paper we will, firstly based on a conceptual model, elucidate the possible impact chain leading from initial regional climate warming, over surface processes on the ice shelves and an increase in calving events to their possible disintegration. We will strive to consider possible feedback between reduced ice shelf surface area and sub-ice shelf exchange processes and their role for global climate and AABW formation. The more qualitative conjectures will be compared with first results from coupled ice shelf-ocean models under varying climate conditions.

  13. Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies: Building a Global Infrastructure for Climate Change Research

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, Dean N.; Ahrens, J.; Ananthakrishnan, R.; Bell, G.; Bharathi, S.; Brown, D.; Chen, M.; Chervenak, A. L.; Cinquini, L.; Drach, R.; Foster, I. T.; Fox, P.; Hankin, S.; Harper, D.; Hook, N.; Jones, P.; Middleton, D. E.; Miller, R.; Nienhouse, E.; Schweitzer, R.; Schuler, R.; Shipman, G.; Shoshani, A.; Siebenlist, F.; Sim, A.; Strand, W. G.; Wang, F.; Wilcox, H.; Wilhelmi, N.

    2010-08-16

    Established within DOE’s Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC-) 2 program, with support from ASCR and BER, the Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) is a consortium of seven laboratories (Argonne National Laboratory [ANL], Los Alamos National Laboratory [LANL], Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [LBNL], Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL], National Center for Atmospheric Research [NCAR], Oak Ridge National Laboratory [ORNL], and Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [PMEL]), and two institutes (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute [RPI] and the University of Southern California, Information Sciences Institute [USC/ISI]). The consortium’s mission is to provide climate researchers worldwide with a science gateway to access data, information, models, analysis tools, and computational capabilities required to evaluate extreme-scale data sets. Its stated goals are to (1) make data more useful to climate researchers by developing collaborative technology that enhances data usability; (2) meet the specific needs that national and international climate projects have for distributed databases, data access, and data movement; (3) provide a universal and secure web-based data access portal for broad-based multi-model data collections; and (4) provide a wide range of climate data-analysis tools and diagnostic methods to international climate centers and U.S. government agencies. To this end, the ESG-CET is working to integrate all highly publicized climate data sets—from climate simulations to observations—using distributed storage management, remote high-performance units, high-bandwidth wide-area networks, and user desktop platforms in a collaborative problem-solving environment.

  14. Implementation of the Stochastic Multicloud Model in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goswami, B. B.; Krishna, R. P. M.; Khouider, B.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Majda, A.

    2015-12-01

    We present here the implementation of the stochastic multicloud model (SMCM) (khouider et al 2010) in the NCEP Climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2). The final goal of this effort is to improve the Indian Summer Monsoon weather and climate through better-organized tropical convection in CFSv2. The fidelity of CFSv2 in simulating the mean state of the global climate, particularly the Indian summer monsoon, relative to the CMIP5 models (Sabeer et al 2013) is the reason behind choosing CFSv2 as the GCM to implement SMCM. We expect to see an improved climate simulation in SMCM-CFSv2 because of the theoretically sound and tested design of the multicloud approach (Khouider and Majda 2006, and the relevant subsequent work thereafter). In order to implement SMCM in CFSv2, first we identify different climatic regions based on the mean state of the global climate (using the CFSR 20year monthly climatology). Then we initialize the climatological values (computed from the CFSR 20year monthly climatology) of the variables required in the multicloud parameterization scheme, for the different climatic zones. We input moisture, temperature and PBL height from the CFSv2 to the multicloud parameterization module and then compute the corresponding variables that were initialized from the mean state. Then we compute the deviation of those variables from the background state. Based on middle troposphere dryness, we compute the heating rates for the deep, congestus and stratiform convection from these deviations from the background (deterministic approach). The stochastic extension involves the evolution of the cloud area fractions, associated to each one of the three cloud types, which are represented by a stochastic lattice subgrid model whose random transitions depend on CAPE and large-scale tropospheric dryness. The stochastic model feedback, to the GCM dynamics, occurs through the modulation of the heating rates by the cloud area fractions.

  15. Developing a Model-based Capability to Analyze Requirements for the Climate Observing System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gelaro, Ronald

    2009-01-01

    Models are foundational for estimating states of the earth's climate system, both as tools to extrapolate information in time and space, and as observation 'operators' used to relate what is analyzed and predicted to what is observed. Expanding the simulation approach further, observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are designed to mimic the complete process of analyzing the climate state by replacing real observations with entirely simulated ones determined from a model-based depiction of nature. OSSEs provide a framework to 'fly' simulated satellite instruments through a synthetic atmosphere and investigate the trade-spaces of measurements for various satellite configurations and sampling strategies, and assess their measurement impact on modeling and forecasting capabilities. Such a tool is a crucial but as yet unfulfilled need for future mission selection and design. The components of a state-of-the-art OSSE system are being assembled at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO, Code 610.1) at NASA/GSFC, leveraging on the GMAO's existing modeling and data assimilation infrastructure for numerical weather prediction (NWP). The OSSE framework is based on the GMAO's Goddard Earth Observing System atmospheric general circulation model, version 5 (GEOS-5) and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) observational analysis scheme, combined with the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport (GOCART) model developed by the Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Branch (Code 613.3). This system is an evolving, key component of Goddard's planned development of an Integrated Earth System Analysis (IESA) capability, which will bring together into a single, fully interactive system Goddard's modeling and assimilation efforts in atmosphere, ocean and chemistry and aerosols to provide a comprehensive analysis and prediction system for weather and climate In addition to providing a state-of-the-art capability for assimilating current observation

  16. A NASA Climate Model Data Services (CDS) End-to-End System to Support Reanalysis Intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carriere, L.; Potter, G. L.; McInerney, M.; Nadeau, D.; Shen, Y.; Duffy, D.; Schnase, J. L.; Maxwell, T. P.; Huffer, E.

    2014-12-01

    The NASA Climate Model Data Service (CDS) and the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) are collaborating to provide an end-to-end system for the comparative study of the major Reanalysis projects, currently, ECMWF ERA-Interim, NASA/GMAO MERRA, NOAA/NCEP CFSR, NOAA/ESRL 20CR, and JMA JRA25. Components of the system include the full spectrum of Climate Model Data Services; Data, Compute Services, Data Services, Analytic Services and Knowledge Services. The Data includes standard Reanalysis model output, and will be expanded to include gridded observations, and gridded Innovations (O-A and O-F). The NCCS High Performance Science Cloud provides the compute environment (storage, servers, and network). Data Services are provided through an Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) data node complete with Live Access Server (LAS), Web Map Service (WMS) and Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT) for visualization, as well as a collaborative interface through the Earth System CoG. Analytic Services include UV-CDAT for analysis and MERRA/AS, accessed via the CDS API, for computation services, both part of the CDS Climate Analytics as a Service (CAaaS). Knowledge Services include access to an Ontology browser, ODISEES, for metadata search and data retrieval. The result is a system that provides the ability for both reanalysis scientists and those scientists in need of reanalysis output to identify the data of interest, compare, compute, visualize, and research without the need for transferring large volumes of data, performing time consuming format conversions, and writing code for frequently run computations and visualizations.

  17. Regional modelling of nitrate leaching from Swiss organic and conventional cropping systems under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calitri, Francesca; Necpalova, Magdalena; Lee, Juhwan; Zaccone, Claudio; Spiess, Ernst; Herrera, Juan; Six, Johan

    2016-04-01

    Organic cropping systems have been promoted as a sustainable alternative to minimize the environmental impacts of conventional practices. Relatively little is known about the potential to reduce NO3-N leaching through the large-scale adoption of organic practices. Moreover, the potential to mitigate NO3-N leaching and thus the N pollution under future climate change through organic farming remain unknown and highly uncertain. Here, we compared regional NO3-N leaching from organic and conventional cropping systems in Switzerland using a terrestrial biogeochemical process-based model DayCent. The objectives of this study are 1) to calibrate and evaluate the model for NO3-N leaching measured under various management practices from three experiments at two sites in Switzerland; 2) to estimate regional NO3-N leaching patterns and their spatial uncertainty in conventional and organic cropping systems (with and without cover crops) for future climate change scenario A1B; 3) to explore the sensitivity of NO3-N leaching to changes in soil and climate variables; and 4) to assess the nitrogen use efficiency for conventional and organic cropping systems with and without cover crops under climate change. The data for model calibration/evaluation were derived from field experiments conducted in Liebefeld (canton Bern) and Eschikon (canton Zürich). These experiments evaluated effects of various cover crops and N fertilizer inputs on NO3-N leaching. The preliminary results suggest that the model was able to explain 50 to 83% of the inter-annual variability in the measured soil drainage (RMSE from 12.32 to 16.89 cm y-1). The annual NO3-N leaching was also simulated satisfactory (RMSE = 3.94 to 6.38 g N m-2 y-1), although the model had difficulty to reproduce the inter-annual variability in the NO3-N leaching losses correctly (R2 = 0.11 to 0.35). Future climate datasets (2010-2099) from the 10 regional climate models (RCM) were used in the simulations. Regional NO3-N leaching

  18. CO₂-neutral wastewater treatment plants or robust, climate-friendly wastewater management? A systems perspective.

    PubMed

    Larsen, Tove A

    2015-12-15

    CO2-neutral wastewater treatment plants can be obtained by improving the recovery of internal wastewater energy resources (COD, nutrients, energy) and reducing energy demand as well as direct emissions of the greenhouse gases N2O and CH4. Climate-friendly wastewater management also includes the management of the heat resource, which is most efficiently recovered at the household level, and robust wastewater management must be able to cope with a possible resulting temperature decrease. At the treatment plant there is a substantial energy optimization potential, both from improving electromechanical devices and sludge treatment as well as through the implementation of more energy-efficient processes like the mainstream anammox process or nutrient recovery from urine. Whether CO2 neutrality can be achieved depends not only on the actual net electricity production, but also on the type of electricity replaced: the cleaner the marginal electricity the more difficult to compensate for the direct emissions, which can be substantial, depending on the stability of the biological processes. It is possible to combine heat recovery at the household scale and nutrient recovery from urine, which both have a large potential to improve the climate friendliness of wastewater management. PMID:26260540

  19. CO₂-neutral wastewater treatment plants or robust, climate-friendly wastewater management? A systems perspective.

    PubMed

    Larsen, Tove A

    2015-12-15

    CO2-neutral wastewater treatment plants can be obtained by improving the recovery of internal wastewater energy resources (COD, nutrients, energy) and reducing energy demand as well as direct emissions of the greenhouse gases N2O and CH4. Climate-friendly wastewater management also includes the management of the heat resource, which is most efficiently recovered at the household level, and robust wastewater management must be able to cope with a possible resulting temperature decrease. At the treatment plant there is a substantial energy optimization potential, both from improving electromechanical devices and sludge treatment as well as through the implementation of more energy-efficient processes like the mainstream anammox process or nutrient recovery from urine. Whether CO2 neutrality can be achieved depends not only on the actual net electricity production, but also on the type of electricity replaced: the cleaner the marginal electricity the more difficult to compensate for the direct emissions, which can be substantial, depending on the stability of the biological processes. It is possible to combine heat recovery at the household scale and nutrient recovery from urine, which both have a large potential to improve the climate friendliness of wastewater management.

  20. Insulated Concrete Form Walls Integrated With Mechanical Systems in a Cold Climate Test House

    SciTech Connect

    Mallay, D.; Wiehagen, J.

    2014-09-01

    Transitioning from standard light frame to a thermal mass wall system in a high performance home will require a higher level of design integration with the mechanical systems. The much higher mass in the ICF wall influences heat transfer through the wall and affects how the heating and cooling system responds to changing outdoor conditions. This is even more important for efficient, low-load homes with efficient heat pump systems in colder climates where the heating and cooling peak loads are significantly different from standard construction. This report analyzes a range of design features and component performance estimates in an effort to select practical, cost-effective solutions for high performance homes in a cold climate.

  1. Climate system modeling program. Annual report, September 1, 1991--August 31, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Schimel, D.; Bretherton, F.

    1993-05-14

    The CSMP proposal to NSF contained a description of a project to examine variability of the climate system on decadal-to-contennial time scales, with an emphasis on eventually understanding the processes which led to climate variability over the past one to two centuries as a basis for validating models of potential future changes. The project thus focused first, on understanding, and second on understanding as a basis for the development of validation procedures for models intended for use in climate change applications. The principal activity of the first year of the project was a workshop on one of the major sources of interdecadal variability-the thermohaline circulation (THC) of the oceans. This workshop was focused on review of the cutting edge science of the THC, and on identification of opportunities for future research. The workshop report is attached.

  2. The response of high-impact blocking weather systems to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kennedy, Daniel; Parker, Tess; Woollings, Tim; Harvey, Benjamin; Shaffrey, Len

    2016-07-01

    Midlatitude weather and climate are dominated by the jet streams and associated eastward moving storm systems. Occasionally, however, these are blocked by persistent anticyclonic regimes known as blocking. Climate models generally predict a small decline in blocking frequency under anthropogenic climate change. However, confidence in these predictions is undermined by, among other things, a lack of understanding of the physical mechanisms underlying the change. Here we analyze blocking (mostly in the Euro-Atlantic sector) in a set of sensitivity experiments to determine the effect of different parts of the surface global warming pattern. We also analyze projected changes in the impacts of blocking such as temperature extremes. The results show that enhanced warming both in the tropics and over the Arctic act to strengthen the projected decline in blocking. The tropical changes are more important for the uncertainty in projected blocking changes, though the Arctic also affects the temperature anomalies during blocking.

  3. Amplifying the Pacific climate system response to a small 11-year solar cycle forcing.

    PubMed

    Meehl, Gerald A; Arblaster, Julie M; Matthes, Katja; Sassi, Fabrizio; van Loon, Harry

    2009-08-28

    One of the mysteries regarding Earth's climate system response to variations in solar output is how the relatively small fluctuations of the 11-year solar cycle can produce the magnitude of the observed climate signals in the tropical Pacific associated with such solar variability. Two mechanisms, the top-down stratospheric response of ozone to fluctuations of shortwave solar forcing and the bottom-up coupled ocean-atmosphere surface response, are included in versions of three global climate models, with either mechanism acting alone or both acting together. We show that the two mechanisms act together to enhance the climatological off-equatorial tropical precipitation maxima in the Pacific, lower the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures during peaks in the 11-year solar cycle, and reduce low-latitude clouds to amplify the solar forcing at the surface.

  4. Amplifying the Pacific climate system response to a small 11-year solar cycle forcing.

    PubMed

    Meehl, Gerald A; Arblaster, Julie M; Matthes, Katja; Sassi, Fabrizio; van Loon, Harry

    2009-08-28

    One of the mysteries regarding Earth's climate system response to variations in solar output is how the relatively small fluctuations of the 11-year solar cycle can produce the magnitude of the observed climate signals in the tropical Pacific associated with such solar variability. Two mechanisms, the top-down stratospheric response of ozone to fluctuations of shortwave solar forcing and the bottom-up coupled ocean-atmosphere surface response, are included in versions of three global climate models, with either mechanism acting alone or both acting together. We show that the two mechanisms act together to enhance the climatological off-equatorial tropical precipitation maxima in the Pacific, lower the eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures during peaks in the 11-year solar cycle, and reduce low-latitude clouds to amplify the solar forcing at the surface. PMID:19713524

  5. Perception of climate change and its impact by smallholders in pastoral/agropastoral systems of Borana, South Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Debela, Nega; Mohammed, Caroline; Bridle, Kerry; Corkrey, Ross; McNeil, David

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the perception of historic changes in climate and associated impact on local agriculture among smallholders in pastoral/agropastoral systems of Borana in southern Ethiopia. We drew on empirical data obtained from farm household surveys conducted in 5 districts, 20 pastoral/agropastoral associations and 480 farm households. Using this data, this study analyses smallholders' perception of climate change and its associated impact on local agriculture, and the effect of various household and farm attributes on perception. Results suggest that most participants perceived climatic change and its negative impact on agricultural and considered climate change as a salient risk to their future livelihoods and economic development. Different levels of perception were expressed in terms of climate change and the impact on traditional rain-fed agriculture. Age, education level, livestock holding, access to climate information and extension services significantly affected perception levels. Household size, production system, farm and non-farm incomes did not significantly affect perception levels of smallholders. Smallholders attributed climate change to a range of biophysical, deistic and anthropogenic causes. Increased access to agricultural support services, which improves the availability and the quality of relevant climate information will further enhance awareness of climate change within of the rural community and result in better management of climate-induced risks in these vulnerable agricultural systems. PMID:26069875

  6. Perception of climate change and its impact by smallholders in pastoral/agropastoral systems of Borana, South Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Debela, Nega; Mohammed, Caroline; Bridle, Kerry; Corkrey, Ross; McNeil, David

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the perception of historic changes in climate and associated impact on local agriculture among smallholders in pastoral/agropastoral systems of Borana in southern Ethiopia. We drew on empirical data obtained from farm household surveys conducted in 5 districts, 20 pastoral/agropastoral associations and 480 farm households. Using this data, this study analyses smallholders' perception of climate change and its associated impact on local agriculture, and the effect of various household and farm attributes on perception. Results suggest that most participants perceived climatic change and its negative impact on agricultural and considered climate change as a salient risk to their future livelihoods and economic development. Different levels of perception were expressed in terms of climate change and the impact on traditional rain-fed agriculture. Age, education level, livestock holding, access to climate information and extension services significantly affected perception levels. Household size, production system, farm and non-farm incomes did not significantly affect perception levels of smallholders. Smallholders attributed climate change to a range of biophysical, deistic and anthropogenic causes. Increased access to agricultural support services, which improves the availability and the quality of relevant climate information will further enhance awareness of climate change within of the rural community and result in better management of climate-induced risks in these vulnerable agricultural systems.

  7. Effects of climate, vegetation, and soils on consumptive water use and ground-water recharge to the Central Midwest Regional aquifer system, Mid-continent United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dugan, J.T.; Peckenpaugh, J.M.

    1985-01-01

    The Central Midwest aquifer system, in parts of Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, and Texas, is a region of great hydrologic diversity. This study examines the relationships between climate, vegetation, and soil that affect consumptive water use and recharge to the groundwater system. Computations of potential recharge and consumptive water use were restricted to those areas where the aquifers under consideration were the immediate underlying system. The principal method of analysis utilized a soil moisture computer model. This model requires four types of input: (1) hydrologic properties of the soils, (2) vegetation types, (3) monthly precipitation, and (4) computed monthly potential evapotranspiration (PET) values. The climatic factors that affect consumptive water use and recharge were extensively mapped for the study area. Nearly all the pertinent climatic elements confirmed the extreme diversity of the region. PET and those factors affecting it--solar radiation, temperature, and humidity--showed large regional differences; mean annual PET ranged from 36 to 70 inches in the study area. The seasonal climatic patterns indicate significant regional differences in those factors affecting seasonal consumptive water use and recharge. In the southern and western parts of the study area, consumptive water use occurred nearly the entire year; whereas, in northern parts it occurred primarily during the warm season (April through September). Results of the soil-moisture program, which added the effects of vegetation and the hydrologic characteristics of the soil to computed PET values, confirmed the significant regional differences in consumptive water use or actual evapotranspiration (AET) and potential groundwater recharge. Under two different vegetative conditions--the 1978 conditions and pre-agricultural conditions consisting of only grassland and woodland--overall differences in recharge were minimal. Mean annual recharge under

  8. Assessment of the climate change impacts on fecal coliform contamination in a tidal estuarine system.

    PubMed

    Liu, Wen-Cheng; Chan, Wen-Ting

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is one of the key factors affecting the future microbiological water quality in rivers and tidal estuaries. A coupled 3D hydrodynamic and fecal coliform transport model was developed and applied to the Danshuei River estuarine system for predicting the influences of climate change on microbiological water quality. The hydrodynamic and fecal coliform model was validated using observational salinity and fecal coliform distributions. According to the analyses of the statistical error, predictions of the salinity and the fecal coliform concentration from the model simulation quantitatively agreed with the observed data. The validated model was then applied to predict the fecal coliform contamination as a result of climate change, including the change of freshwater discharge and the sea level rise. We found that the reduction of freshwater discharge under climate change scenarios resulted in an increase in the fecal coliform concentration. The sea level rise would decrease fecal coliform distributions because both the water level and the water volume increased. A reduction in freshwater discharge has a negative impact on the fecal coliform concentration, whereas a rising sea level has a positive influence on the fecal coliform contamination. An appropriate strategy for the effective microbiological management in tidal estuaries is required to reveal the persistent trends of climate in the future.

  9. Assessment of the climate change impacts on fecal coliform contamination in a tidal estuarine system.

    PubMed

    Liu, Wen-Cheng; Chan, Wen-Ting

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is one of the key factors affecting the future microbiological water quality in rivers and tidal estuaries. A coupled 3D hydrodynamic and fecal coliform transport model was developed and applied to the Danshuei River estuarine system for predicting the influences of climate change on microbiological water quality. The hydrodynamic and fecal coliform model was validated using observational salinity and fecal coliform distributions. According to the analyses of the statistical error, predictions of the salinity and the fecal coliform concentration from the model simulation quantitatively agreed with the observed data. The validated model was then applied to predict the fecal coliform contamination as a result of climate change, including the change of freshwater discharge and the sea level rise. We found that the reduction of freshwater discharge under climate change scenarios resulted in an increase in the fecal coliform concentration. The sea level rise would decrease fecal coliform distributions because both the water level and the water volume increased. A reduction in freshwater discharge has a negative impact on the fecal coliform concentration, whereas a rising sea level has a positive influence on the fecal coliform contamination. An appropriate strategy for the effective microbiological management in tidal estuaries is required to reveal the persistent trends of climate in the future. PMID:26545372

  10. Effects of climate change on the mobilization of diffuse substances from agricultural systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MacLeod, C. J. A.; Fallon, P. D.; Evans, R.; Haygarth, P. M.

    2009-04-01

    Changes in the climate of temperate regions are likely to lead to increased losses of diffuse substances transferred from agricultural land to surface and ground waters e.g. sediment, carbon, nitrogen, pathogens and phosphorus. As part of a UK based science-policy initiative Integrating Water and Agricultural Management (IWAM) we have developed a framework for assessing climate change impacts on the mobilization of diffuse substances from UK agricultural land. We have reviewed the literature and provided an expert assessment of the influence of predicted changes in temperature and precipitation on detachment and solubilisation processes. We have chosen three model farm systems (MFSs; arable, lowland dairy and upland sheep). In our assessment we have found that lowland dairy is potentially the most sensitive to the predicted climate changes (2020). The projected increase in winter precipitation and all year round rainfall intensity are likely to be the largest climatic drivers for significant increases in detachment and solubilisation. An important part of our assessment was to identify the scientific gaps and uncertainties around climate change and diffuse substance mobilization and to facilitate improved recommendations for policies related to sustainable land and water management.

  11. Climate change in the Iberian Upwelling System: a numerical study using GCM downscaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cordeiro Pires, Ana; Nolasco, Rita; Rocha, Alfredo; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Dubert, Jesus

    2016-07-01

    The present work aims at evaluating the impacts of a climate change scenario on the hydrography and dynamics of the Iberian Upwelling System. Using regional ocean model configurations, the study domain is forced with three different sets of surface fields: a climatological dataset to provide the control run; a dataset obtained from averaging several global climate models (GCM) that integrate the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) models used in climate scenarios, for the same period as the climatological dataset; and this same dataset but for a future period, retrieved from the IPCC A2 climate scenario. After ascertaining that the ocean run forced with the GCM dataset for the present compared reasonably well with the climatologically forced run, the results for the future run (relative to the respective present run) show a general temperature increase (from +0.5 to +3 °C) and salinity decrease (from -0.1 to -0.3), particularly in the upper 100-200 m, although these differences depend strongly on season and distance to the coast. There is also strengthening of the SST cross-shore gradient associated to upwelling, which causes narrowing and shallowing of the upwelling jet. This effect is contrary to the meridional wind stress intensification that is also observed, which would tend to strengthen the upwelling jet.

  12. Mathematics applied to the climate system: outstanding challenges and recent progress

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Paul D.; Cullen, Michael J. P.; Davey, Michael K.; Huthnance, John M.

    2013-01-01

    The societal need for reliable climate predictions and a proper assessment of their uncertainties is pressing. Uncertainties arise not only from initial conditions and forcing scenarios, but also from model formulation. Here, we identify and document three broad classes of problems, each representing what we regard to be an outstanding challenge in the area of mathematics applied to the climate system. First, there is the problem of the development and evaluation of simple physically based models of the global climate. Second, there is the problem of the development and evaluation of the components of complex models such as general circulation models. Third, there is the problem of the development and evaluation of appropriate statistical frameworks. We discuss these problems in turn, emphasizing the recent progress made by the papers presented in this Theme Issue. Many pressing challenges in climate science require closer collaboration between climate scientists, mathematicians and statisticians. We hope the papers contained in this Theme Issue will act as inspiration for such collaborations and for setting future research directions. PMID:23588054

  13. Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

  14. Comparison of thermal comfort performance of two different types of road vehicle climate control systems.

    PubMed

    Quanten, S; Van Brecht, A; Berckmans, D

    2007-03-01

    The performance of climate control systems in vehicles becomes more and more important, especially against the background of the important relationship between compartment climate and driver mental condition and, thus, traffic safety. The performance of two different types of climate control systems, an un-air-conditioned heating/cooling device (VW) and an air-conditioning climate control unit (BMW), is compared using modern and practical evaluation techniques quantifying both the dynamic 3-D temperature distribution and the local air refreshment rate. Both systems suffer from considerable temperature gradients: temperature gradients in the U-AC (VW) car up to 8-9 degrees C are encountered, while the AC (BMW) delivers clear improvement resulting in temperature gradients of 5-6 degrees C. The experiments clearly demonstrate the effect of the presence of even a single passenger on the thermal regime, increasing the existing thermal discrepancies in the compartment with 15% independent of ventilation rate. Furthermore, in terms of air refreshment rates in the vehicle compartment, an air-conditioning unit halves the air refreshment time at all positions in the vehicle cabin, delivering a significant improvement in terms of human comfort. Similarly, extra air inlets in the back compartment of a car deliver progress in terms of cabin refreshment rate (93 s down to 50 s).

  15. The Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies: Focusing Technologies on Climate Datasets and Resource Needs

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, Dean N.

    2007-09-26

    This report discusses a project that used prototyping technology to access and analyze climate data. This project was initially funded under the DOE’s Next Generation Internet (NGI) program, with follow-on support from BER and the Mathematical, Information, and Computational Sciences (MICS) office. In this prototype, we developed Data Grid technologies for managing the movement and replication of large datasets, and applied these technologies in a practical setting (i.e., an ESG-enabled data browser based on current climate data analysis tools), achieving cross-country transfer rates of more than 500 Mb/s. Having demonstrated the potential for remotely accessing and analyzing climate data located at sites across the U.S., we won the “Hottest Infrastructure” award in the Network Challenge event. While the ESG I prototype project substantiated a proof of concept (“Turning Climate Datasets into Community Resources”), the SciDAC Earth System Grid (ESG) II project made this a reality. Our efforts targeted the development of metadata technologies (standard schema, XML metadata extraction based on netCDF, and a Metadata Catalog Service), security technologies (Web-based user registration and authentication, and community authorization), data transport technologies (GridFTPenabled OPeNDAP-G for high-performance access, robust multiple file transport and integration with mass storage systems, and support for dataset aggregation and subsetting), as well as web portal technologies to provide interactive access to climate data holdings. At this point, the technology was in place and assembled, and ESG II was poised to make a substantial impact on the climate modelling community.

  16. Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

    SciTech Connect

    Mahowald, Natalie; Rothenberg, D.; Lindsay, Keith; Doney, Scott C.; Moore, Jefferson Keith; Randerson, James T.; Thornton, Peter E; Jones, C. D.

    2011-02-01

    Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries) and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climate feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.

  17. Adapting to climate change in the mixed crop and livestock farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thornton, Philip K.; Herrero, Mario

    2015-09-01

    Mixed crop-livestock systems are the backbone of African agriculture, providing food security and livelihood options for hundreds of millions of people. Much is known about the impacts of climate change on the crop enterprises in the mixed systems, and some, although less, on the livestock enterprises. The interactions between crops and livestock can be managed to contribute to environmentally sustainable intensification, diversification and risk management. There is relatively little information on how these interactions may be affected by changes in climate and climate variability. This is a serious gap, because these interactions may offer some buffering capacity to help smallholders adapt to climate change.

  18. Interdisciplinary MSc and Doctoral Education in Climate System Science at the University of Hamburg

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dilly, Oliver; Stammer, Detlef; Pfeiffer, Eva-Maria

    2010-05-01

    Modern education in climate system sciences is based on a number of disciplines such as meteorology, geophysics, oceanography, geosciences and also economics and social sciences. Facts across these disciplines are required to address the faced key issues related to climate change effectively. Climate experts need to have profound knowledge that can only be achieved in interdisciplinary MSc and PhD programs. In Europe, graduate students who completed a BSc degree are typically proceeding with MSc programs to increase knowledge and qualification. Afterwards, the participation in a doctoral program may follow. Many doctoral programs include courses supporting disciplinary methodological and scientific background in particular. Those courses derive either from advanced MSc programs or specific trainings. Typically, interdisciplinary exchange is difficult to achieve at any stage of disciplinary graduate programs. Recent developments showed the need to educate climate experts in interdisciplinary MSc programs in climate system sciences for both researchers and professionals outside the university. The University of Hamburg offers an interdisciplinary 2-yr MSc program in Integrated System Sciences with 120 ECTS (30 compulsory, 90 eligible) in English language. If the MSc student decides to proceed with a PhD thesis, he/she may not necessarily complete the MSc program but may start to work on a specific and disciplinary doctoral thesis for 3 years. Each doctoral student is guided by an advisory panel (AP) which meets at least bi-annually. The AP consists of a Principal Advisor, a Co-Advisor and a Chair of the panel who come from neighboring disciplines. The structured doctoral program with only 12 CPs includes interdisciplinary compulsory courses and tailor-made eligible expert courses. Summer schools and soft skill courses add to both MSc and doctoral programs. Accordingly, the new graduate school concepts in climate system sciences at the University of Hamburg supports

  19. Climate Model Evaluation using New Datasets from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Loeb, Norman G.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Doelling, David R.

    2008-01-01

    There are some in the science community who believe that the response of the climate system to anthropogenic radiative forcing is unpredictable and we should therefore call off the quest . The key limitation in climate predictability is associated with cloud feedback. Narrowing the uncertainty in cloud feedback (and therefore climate sensitivity) requires optimal use of the best available observations to evaluate and improve climate model processes and constrain climate model simulations over longer time scales. The Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) is a satellite-based program that provides global cloud, aerosol and radiative flux observations for improving our understanding of cloud-aerosol-radiation feedbacks in the Earth s climate system. CERES is the successor to the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), which has widely been used to evaluate climate models both at short time scales (e.g., process studies) and at decadal time scales. A CERES instrument flew on the TRMM satellite and captured the dramatic 1998 El Nino, and four other CERES instruments are currently flying aboard the Terra and Aqua platforms. Plans are underway to fly the remaining copy of CERES on the upcoming NPP spacecraft (mid-2010 launch date). Every aspect of CERES represents a significant improvement over ERBE. While both CERES and ERBE measure broadband radiation, CERES calibration is a factor of 2 better than ERBE. In order to improve the characterization of clouds and aerosols within a CERES footprint, we use coincident higher-resolution imager observations (VIRS, MODIS or VIIRS) to provide a consistent cloud-aerosol-radiation dataset at climate accuracy. Improved radiative fluxes are obtained by using new CERES-derived Angular Distribution Models (ADMs) for converting measured radiances to fluxes. CERES radiative fluxes are a factor of 2 more accurate than ERBE overall, but the improvement by cloud type and at high latitudes can be as high as a factor of 5

  20. Investigating the Ocean-Climate System, Concept by Concept

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Decharon, A.; Karp-Boss, L.; Boss, E.; Graham, S.; Manahan, A.; Weller, H.

    2006-12-01

    In fall 2005, a new initiative was added to the Centers for Ocean Sciences Education Excellence (COSEE) Network. COSEE-Ocean Systems (OS) is a collaborative effort among the University of Maine (UMaine), University of New Hampshire, and Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences. Being thematic in nature, COSEE-OS has the flexibility to tackle topics that are important on the national scale, such as those highlighted in the recent "Ocean Literacy" campaign. COSEE-OS has the long-term goal of helping COSEE reach rural and inland audiences. We are creating and evaluating a series of interconnected tools and techniques to broaden understanding of oceans in the context of the earth and solar systems. This includes: - Building and training scientist-educator teams who work together to distinguish meaningful "key messages" and the K-12 audiences who would benefit most from exposure to these concepts; - Translating the concepts into innovative products, workshops, and courses that showcase oceans in the Earth-Sun system; - Working with NASA multimedia experts, developing immersive web-based interfaces that will be utilized by and / or customized for other COSEEs; and - Training in-service and pre-service teachers in using ocean phenomena as a vehicle to teach physical concepts using hands-on activities and inquiry based learning. Part of the COSEE-OS strategy is engaging teams with an educational tool called "concept mapping." Dr. Joseph Novak developed concept mapping in the 1960s as a technique for representing knowledge in graphical formats. Used as a group activity this allows COSEE-OS to gather vital information from scientists to construct multimedia products. Another benefit of this activity is helping scientists and educators test the utility of concept mapping for their instructional purposes. To complement the development of concept maps and associated multimedia, a UMaine COSEE-OS pilot workshop was held in July 2006. The workshop targeted middle- and high

  1. Climate change effects on high-elevation hydropower system in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madani Larijani, Kaveh

    The high-elevation hydropower system in California, composed of more than 150 hydropower plants and regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), supplies 74 percent of in-state hydropower. The system has modest reservoir capacities and has been designed to take advantage of snowpack. The expected shift of runoff peak from spring to winter as a result of climate warming, resulting in snowpack reduction and earlier snowmelt, might have important effects on hydropower operations. Estimation of climate warming effects on such a large system by conventional simulation or optimization methods would be tedious and expensive. This dissertation presents a novel approach for modeling large hydropower systems. Conservation of energy and energy flows are used as the basis for modeling high-elevation high-head hydropower systems in California. The unusual energy basis for reservoir modeling allows for development of hydropower operations models to estimate large-scale system behavior without the expense and time needed to develop traditional streamflow and reservoir volume-based models in absence of storage and release capacity, penstock head, and efficiency information. An Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM) is developed to facilitate a practical climate change study based on the historical generation data high-elevation hydropower plants in California. Employing recent historical hourly energy prices, energy generation in California is explored for three climate warming scenarios (dry warming, wet warming, and warming-only) over 14 years, representing a range of hydrologic conditions. Currently, the high-elevation hydropower plants in California have to renew their FERC licenses. A method based on cooperative game theory is developed to explore FERC relicensing process, in which dam owners negotiate over the available instream water with other interest groups downstream. It is discussed how the lack of incentive for cooperation results in long

  2. An Observational and Computational Variable Tagging System for Climate Change Informatics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pouchard, L. C.; Lenhardt, W.; Branstetter, M. L.; Runciman, A.; Wang, D.; Kao, S.; King, A. W.; Climate Change Informatics Team

    2010-12-01

    As climate change science uses diverse data from observations and computational results to model and validate earth systems from global to local scale, understand complex processes, and perform integrated assessments, adaptable and accessible information systems that integrate these observations and model results are required. The data processing tasks associated with the simultaneous use of observation and modeling data are time-consuming because scientists are typically familiar with one or the other, but rarely both. Each data domain has its own portal, its own metadata formats, and its own query-building methods for obtaining datasets. The exact definition of variables and observational parameters may require substantial searches for unfamiliar topics. The dearth of formal descriptions such as ontologies compounds the problem and negatively impacts the advancement of science for each aspect of studying climate change. Our Observational and Computational Variable Tagging System aims to address these challenges through facilitating the quick identification of datasets of interest across archives by associating variables with tags or keywords from a controlled vocabulary. The prototype currently offers the ability to search by tags, variable names, and annotations. Names, plain text descriptions, units, dimensions, and a link to each dataset are returned. The information is aggregated from various locations at the source of origin. Keywords from NASA’s Global Change Master Directory provide built-in suggestions for tags. These features ensure accuracy and disambiguation. For the target application, the system tags variables and stores data from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), International Boundary Water Commission, US Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and NASA. Our tagging system allows users to identify variable names and descriptions of observational and computational data from a single Web interface. Our system

  3. Insulated Concrete Form Walls Integrated With Mechanical Systems in a Cold Climate Test House

    SciTech Connect

    Mallay, D.; Wiehagen, J.

    2014-09-01

    Transitioning from standard light frame to a thermal mass wall system in a high performance home will require a higher level of design integration with the mechanical systems. The much higher mass in the ICF wall influences heat transfer through the wall and affects how the heating and cooling system responds to changing outdoor conditions. This is even more important for efficient, low-load homes with efficient heat pump systems in colder climates where the heating and cooling peak loads are significantly different from standard construction. This report analyzes a range of design features and component performance estimates in an effort to select practical, cost-effective solutions for high performance homes in a cold climate. Of primary interest is the influence of the ICF walls on developing an effective air sealing strategy and selecting an appropriate heating and cooling equipment type and capacity. The domestic water heating system is analyzed for costs and savings to investigate options for higher efficiency electric water heating. A method to ensure mechanical ventilation air flows is examined. The final solution package includes high-R mass walls, very low infiltration rates, multi-stage heat pump heating, solar thermal domestic hot water system, and energy recovery ventilation. This solution package can be used for homes to exceed 2012 International Energy Conservation Code requirements throughout all climate zones and achieves the DOE Challenge Home certification.

  4. Explosive Percolation Transition is Actually Continuous

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    da Costa, R. A.; Dorogovtsev, S. N.; Goltsev, A. V.; Mendes, J. F. F.

    2010-12-01

    Recently a discontinuous percolation transition was reported in a new “explosive percolation” problem for irreversible systems [D. Achlioptas, R. M. D’Souza, and J. Spencer, Science 323, 1453 (2009)SCIEAS0036-807510.1126/science.1167782] in striking contrast to ordinary percolation. We consider a representative model which shows that the explosive percolation transition is actually a continuous, second order phase transition though with a uniquely small critical exponent of the percolation cluster size. We describe the unusual scaling properties of this transition and find its critical exponents and dimensions.

  5. A Decision Support System for Climate Change Adaptation in Rainfed Sectors of Agriculture for Central Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mátyás, Csaba; Berki, Imre; Drüszler, Áron; Eredics, Attila; Gálos, Borbála; Illés, Gábor; Móricz, Norbert; Rasztovits, Ervin; Czimber, Kornél

    2013-04-01

    • Background and aims: Rainfed sectors of agriculture such as nature-close forestry, non-irrigated agriculture and animal husbandry on nature-close pastures are threatened by projected climate change especially in low-elevation regions in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is the limiting factor of production and ecosystem stability. Therefore the importance of complex, long term management planning and of land use optimization is increasing. The aim of the Decision Support System under development is to raise awareness and initiate preparation for frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses in the mentioned sectors. • Services provided: The Decision Support System provides GIS-supported information about the most important regional and local risks and mitigation options regarding climate change impacts, projected for reference periods until 2100 (e.g. land cover/use and expectable changes, potential production, water and carbon cycle, biodiversity and other ecosystem services, potential pests and diseases, tolerance limits etc.). The projections are referring first of all on biological production (natural produce), but the System includes also social and economic consequences. • Methods: In the raster based system, the latest image processing technology is used. We apply fuzzy membership functions, Support Vector Machine and Maximum Likelihood classifier. The System is developed in the first step for a reference area in SW Hungary (Zala county). • Novelty: The coherent, fine-scale regional system integrates the basic information about present and projected climates, extremes, hydrology and soil conditions and expected production potential for three sectors of agriculture as options for land use and conservation. • Funding: The development of the Decision Support System "Agrárklíma" is supported by TÁMOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV and 4.2.2.B-10/1-2010-0018 "Talentum" joint EU-national research projects. Keywords: climate change

  6. The treatment of climate science in Integrated Assessment Modelling: integration of climate step function response in an energy system integrated assessment model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dessens, Olivier

    2016-04-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are used as crucial inputs to policy-making on climate change. These models simulate aspect of the economy and climate system to deliver future projections and to explore the impact of mitigation and adaptation policies. The IAMs' climate representation is extremely important as it can have great influence on future political action. The step-function-response is a simple climate model recently developed by the UK Met Office and is an alternate method of estimating the climate response to an emission trajectory directly from global climate model step simulations. Good et al., (2013) have formulated a method of reconstructing general circulation models (GCMs) climate response to emission trajectories through an idealized experiment. This method is called the "step-response approach" after and is based on an idealized abrupt CO2 step experiment results. TIAM-UCL is a technology-rich model that belongs to the family of, partial-equilibrium, bottom-up models, developed at University College London to represent a wide spectrum of energy systems in 16 regions of the globe (Anandarajah et al. 2011). The model uses optimisation functions to obtain cost-efficient solutions, in meeting an exogenously defined set of energy-service demands, given certain technological and environmental constraints. Furthermore, it employs linear programming techniques making the step function representation of the climate change response adapted to the model mathematical formulation. For the first time, we have introduced the "step-response approach" method developed at the UK Met Office in an IAM, the TIAM-UCL energy system, and we investigate the main consequences of this modification on the results of the model in term of climate and energy system responses. The main advantage of this approach (apart from the low computational cost it entails) is that its results are directly traceable to the GCM involved and closely connected to well-known methods of

  7. Potential Effects of Climate Changes on Aquatic Systems: Laurentian Great Lakes and Precambrian Shield Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magnuson, J. J.; Webster, K. E.; Assel, R. A.; Bowser, C. J.; Dillon, P. J.; Eaton, J. G.; Evans, H. E.; Fee, E. J.; Hall, R. I.; Mortsch, L. R.; Schindler, D. W.; Quinn, F. H.

    1997-06-01

    increase but many complex reactions of the phytoplankton community to altered temperatures, thermocline depths, light penetrations and nutrient inputs would be expected. Zooplankton biomass would increase, but, again, many complex interactions are expected.Generally, the thermal habitat for warm-, cool- and even cold-water fishes would increase in size in deep stratified lakes, but would decrease in shallow unstratified lakes and in streams. Less dissolved oxygen below the thermocline of lakes would further degrade stratified lakes for cold water fishes. Growth and production would increase for fishes that are now in thermal environments cooler than their optimum but decrease for those that are at or above their optimum, provided they cannot move to a deeper or headwater thermal refuge. The zoogeographical boundary for fish species could move north by 500-600 km; invasions of warmer water fishes and extirpations of colder water fishes should increase. Aquatic ecosystems across the region do not necessarily exhibit coherent responses to climate changes and variability, even if they are in close proximity. Lakes, wetlands and streams respond differently, as do lakes of different depth or productivity. Differences in hydrology and the position in the hydrological flow system, in terrestrial vegetation and land use, in base climates and in the aquatic biota can all cause different responses. Climate change effects interact strongly with effects of other human-caused stresses such as eutrophication, acid precipitation, toxic chemicals and the spread of exotic organisms. Aquatic ecological systems in the region are sensitive to climate change and variation. Assessments of these potential effects are in an early stage and contain many uncertainties in the models and properties of aquatic ecological systems and of the climate system.

  8. Quantitative assessment of resilience of a water supply system under rainfall reduction due to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amarasinghe, Pradeep; Liu, An; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Barnes, Paul; McGree, James; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

    2016-09-01

    A water supply system can be impacted by rainfall reduction due to climate change, thereby reducing its supply potential. This highlights the need to understand the system resilience, which refers to the ability to maintain service under various pressures (or disruptions). Currently, the concept of resilience has not yet been widely applied in managing water supply systems. This paper proposed three technical resilience indictors to assess the resilience of a water supply system. A case study analysis was undertaken of the Water Grid system of Queensland State, Australia, to showcase how the proposed indicators can be applied to assess resilience. The research outcomes confirmed that the use of resilience indicators is capable of identifying critical conditions in relation to the water supply system operation, such as the maximum allowable rainfall reduction for the system to maintain its operation without failure. Additionally, resilience indicators also provided useful insight regarding the sensitivity of the water supply system to a changing rainfall pattern in the context of climate change, which represents the system's stability when experiencing pressure. The study outcomes will help in the quantitative assessment of resilience and provide improved guidance to system operators to enhance the efficiency and reliability of a water supply system.

  9. Addition of Tropospheric Chemistry and Aerosols to the NCAR Community Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Cameron-Smith, P; Lamarque, J; Connell, P; Chuang, C; Rotman, D; Taylor, J

    2005-11-14

    Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols have several important roles in climate change. They affect the Earth's radiative balance directly: cooling the earth by scattering sunlight (aerosols) and warming the Earth by trapping the Earth's thermal radiation (methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, and CFCs are greenhouse gases). Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols also impact many other parts of the climate system: modifying cloud properties (aerosols can be cloud condensation nuclei), fertilizing the biosphere (nitrogen species and soil dust), and damaging the biosphere (acid rain and ozone damage). In order to understand and quantify the effects of atmospheric chemistry and aerosols on the climate and the biosphere in the future, it is necessary to incorporate atmospheric chemistry and aerosols into state-of-the-art climate system models. We have taken several important strides down that path. Working with the latest NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM), we have incorporated a state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry model to simulate tropospheric ozone. Ozone is not just a greenhouse gas, it damages biological systems including lungs, tires, and crops. Ozone chemistry is also central to the oxidizing power of the atmosphere, which destroys a lot of pollutants in the atmosphere (which is a good thing). We have also implemented a fast chemical mechanism that has high fidelity with the full mechanism, for significantly reduced computational cost (to facilitate millennium scale simulations). Sulfate aerosols have a strong effect on climate by reflecting sunlight and modifying cloud properties. So in order to simulate the sulfur cycle more fully in CCSM simulations, we have linked the formation of sulfate aerosols to the oxidizing power of the atmosphere calculated by the ozone mechanisms, and to dimethyl sulfide emissions from the ocean ecosystem in the model. Since the impact of sulfate aerosols depends on the relative abundance of other aerosols in the atmosphere, we also

  10. Analysis of selected photovoltaic systems and storage options for residential applications in hot, humid climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lau, A. S.; Hill, J. M.; Ball, D. E.

    1982-08-01

    The relationship is studied between photovoltaic (PV) generated power and its on-site use as a function of total array size for an energy-efficient house in the hot, humid climates of Miami and Houston. Options in addition to be the full-roof system using a direct current (dc) to alternating current (ac) inverter are studied in an effort to identify applications which are less expensive and which rely less on utility sellback. The results show that common residential loads in this climate lead to high on-site utilization. For the various PV applications studied, array sizes are identified which can be fully potential is identified both in the house structure and the domestic water heater. Using projected 1986 costs, the economics of selected systems were studied for Miami. Only one of the system sizes was found to be marginally competitive with utility supplied power.

  11. A planet under siege: Are we changing earth`s climate?. Global Systems Science, Volume 1

    SciTech Connect

    Sneider, C.; Golden, R.

    1992-12-31

    Global Systems Science is an interdisciplinary course for high school students. It is divided into five volumes. Each volume contains laboratory experiments; home investigations; descriptions of recent scientific work; historical background; and consideration of the political, economic, and ethical issues associated with each problem area. Collectively, these volumes constitute a unique combination of studies in the natural and social sciences from which high school students may view the global environmental problems that they will confront within their lifetimes. The five volumes are: A Planet Under Siege: Are We Changing Earths Climate; A History of Fire and Ice: The Earth`s Climate System; Energy Paths: Use and Conservation of Energy; Ecological Systems: Evolution and Interdependence of Life; and, The Case of the Missing Ozone: Chemistry of the Earth`s Atmosphere.

  12. Linking climate projections to performance: A yield-based decision scaling assessment of a large urban water resources system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, Sean W. D.; Marlow, David; Ekström, Marie; Rhodes, Bruce G.; Kularathna, Udaya; Jeffrey, Paul J.

    2014-04-01

    Despite a decade of research into climate change impacts on water resources, the scientific community has delivered relatively few practical methodological developments for integrating uncertainty into water resources system design. This paper presents an application of the "decision scaling" methodology for assessing climate change impacts on water resources system performance and asks how such an approach might inform planning decisions. The decision scaling method reverses the conventional ethos of climate impact assessment by first establishing the climate conditions that would compel planners to intervene. Climate model projections are introduced at the end of the process to characterize climate risk in such a way that avoids the process of propagating those projections through hydrological models. Here we simulated 1000 multisite synthetic monthly streamflow traces in a model of the Melbourne bulk supply system to test the sensitivity of system performance to variations in streamflow statistics. An empirical relation was derived to convert decision-critical flow statistics to climatic units, against which 138 alternative climate projections were plotted and compared. We defined the decision threshold in terms of a system yield metric constrained by multiple performance criteria. Our approach allows for fast and simple incorporation of demand forecast uncertainty and demonstrates the reach of the decision scaling method through successful execution in a large and complex water resources system. Scope for wider application in urban water resources planning is discussed.

  13. Climate Change Impacts on the Electric Power System in the Western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veselka, T. D.; Botterud, A.; Conzelmann, G.; Koritarov, V.; Poch, L. A.; Wang, J.

    2007-12-01

    Future climate change is projected to vary substantially across regions. Changes in regional temperature and precipitation patterns may have significant implications on our existing and future power system infrastructure. In this paper, we use results from regional climate models to examine the impacts of projected changes in temperature and precipitation on the development and operations of the power system in the Western United States. We study three scenarios to evaluate potential effects of climate change on the electricity demand as well as on the power supply side. Impacts are measured in terms of changes in investment requirements, fuel and generation mix, emissions of greenhouse gases and criteria pollutants, and thermal power water withdrawals and consumption. We also identify potential issues regarding the western transmission grid. Our methodology includes a long-term investment algorithm that takes into account interdependencies between hydroelectric, thermal power, and non-dispatchable resources, such as wind turbines. We also include temporal aspects associated with hydropower energy constraints, wind variability, thermal power plant availability, and hourly load profiles. Thermal power plant availability and resulting generation and fuel consumption are based on maintenance outage schedules and a probabilistic dispatch algorithm that accounts for random forced outages. We conclude with some observations regarding the vulnerability of our electricity infrastructure to projected regional climate changes.

  14. A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    SciTech Connect

    Gent, Peter; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Conley, Andrew; Vertenstein, Mariana; Craig, Anthony

    2013-02-13

    The objective of this award was to build a scalable and extensible Earth System Model that can be used to study climate change science. That objective has been achieved with the public release of the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). In particular, the development of the CESM1 atmospheric chemistry component was substantially funded by this award, as was the development of the significantly improved coupler component. The CESM1 allows new climate change science in areas such as future air quality in very large cities, the effects of recovery of the southern hemisphere ozone hole, and effects of runoff from ice melt in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Results from a whole series of future climate projections using the CESM1 are also freely available via the web from the CMIP5 archive at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Many research papers using these results have now been published, and will form part of the 5th Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is to be published late in 2013.

  15. Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate system.

    PubMed

    Seinfeld, John H; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S; Coe, Hugh; DeMott, Paul J; Dunlea, Edward J; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Guenther, Alex B; Kahn, Ralph; Kraucunas, Ian; Kreidenweis, Sonia M; Molina, Mario J; Nenes, Athanasios; Penner, Joyce E; Prather, Kimberly A; Ramanathan, V; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Rasch, Philip J; Ravishankara, A R; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Stephens, Graeme; Wood, Robert

    2016-05-24

    The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.

  16. Decision support system to study climate change impacts on crop production

    SciTech Connect

    Hoogenboom, G.; Tsuji, G.Y.; Pickering, N.B.; Curry, R.B.; Jones, J.W.; Singh, U. |; Godwin, D.C.

    1995-12-31

    Under the auspices of the International Benchmark Sites Network for Agrotechnology Transfer (IBSNAT) Project a Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) has been developed. DSSAT operates on a personal compute rand includes data base management programs for climate, soil, and cultural practice information; crop simulation models for cereal grains, grain legumes, and root crops; and seasonal strategy and risk analysis programs. The IBSNAT crop models use daily weather data, i.e., maximum and minimum air temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation, as inputs. One of the applications of DSSAT is, therefore, to study the potential impact of climate change on agricultural production. A new and special version of DSSAT (Version 2.5) was developed to facilitate studies of the effect of climate change on crop performance. In this version, the daily canopy photosynthesis and transpiration sections of the CERES and GRO models were modified to respond to changes in CO{sub 2} concentration. The management sections of the models and the strategy analysis program were expanded to include the option to modify weather data interactively. This decision support system has been used to study changes in crop yield, irrigation requirements, and other responses to global climate change in various regional, national, and international research programs. 65 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs.

  17. Soil moisture's underestimated role in climate change impact modelling in low-energy systems.

    PubMed

    le Roux, Peter Christiaan; Aalto, Juha; Luoto, Miska

    2013-10-01

    Shifts in precipitation regimes are an inherent component of climate change, but in low-energy systems are often assumed to be less important than changes in temperature. Because soil moisture is the hydrological variable most proximally linked to plant performance during the growing season in arctic-alpine habitats, it may offer the most useful perspective on the influence of changes in precipitation on vegetation. Here we quantify the influence of soil moisture for multiple vegetation properties at fine spatial scales, to determine the potential importance of soil moisture under changing climatic conditions. A fine-scale data set, comprising vascular species cover and field-quantified ecologically relevant environmental parameters, was analysed to determine the influence of soil moisture relative to other key abiotic predictors. Soil moisture was strongly related to community composition, species richness and the occurrence patterns of individual species, having a similar or greater influence than soil temperature, pH and solar radiation. Soil moisture varied considerably over short distances, and this fine-scale heterogeneity may contribute to offsetting the ecological impacts of changes in precipitation for species not limited to extreme soil moisture conditions. In conclusion, soil moisture is a key driver of vegetation properties, both at the species and community level, even in this low-energy system. Soil moisture conditions represent an important mechanism through which changing climatic conditions impact vegetation, and advancing our predictive capability will therefore require a better understanding of how soil moisture mediates the effects of climate change on biota.

  18. Pilot climate data system: A state-of-the-art capability in scientific data management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, P. H.; Treinish, L. A.; Novak, L. V.

    1983-01-01

    The Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS) was developed by the Information Management Branch of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center to manage a large collection of climate-related data of interest to the research community. The PCDS now provides uniform data catalogs, inventories, access methods, graphical displays and statistical calculations for selected NASA and non-NASA data sets. Data manipulation capabilities were developed to permit researchers to easily combine or compare data. The current capabilities of the PCDS include many tools for the statistical survey of climate data. A climate researcher can examine any data set of interest via flexible utilities to create a variety of two- and three-dimensional displays, including vector plots, scatter diagrams, histograms, contour plots, surface diagrams and pseudo-color images. The graphics and statistics subsystems employ an intermediate data storage format which is data-set independent. Outside of the graphics system there exist other utilities to select, filter, list, compress, and calculate time-averages and variances for any data of interest. The PCDS now fully supports approximately twenty different data sets and is being used on a trial basis by several different in-house research grounds.

  19. Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol−cloud interactions in the climate system

    PubMed Central

    Seinfeld, John H.; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S.; Coe, Hugh; DeMott, Paul J.; Dunlea, Edward J.; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Guenther, Alex B.; Kraucunas, Ian; Molina, Mario J.; Nenes, Athanasios; Penner, Joyce E.; Prather, Kimberly A.; Ramanathan, V.; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Rasch, Philip J.; Ravishankara, A. R.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Stephens, Graeme; Wood, Robert

    2016-01-01

    The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth’s clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol−cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol−cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol−cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty. PMID:27222566

  20. Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate system.

    PubMed

    Seinfeld, John H; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S; Coe, Hugh; DeMott, Paul J; Dunlea, Edward J; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Guenther, Alex B; Kahn, Ralph; Kraucunas, Ian; Kreidenweis, Sonia M; Molina, Mario J; Nenes, Athanasios; Penner, Joyce E; Prather, Kimberly A; Ramanathan, V; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Rasch, Philip J; Ravishankara, A R; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Stephens, Graeme; Wood, Robert

    2016-05-24

    The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty. PMID:27222566

  1. Land-surface processes and monsoon climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Differential thermal heating of land and ocean and heat release into the atmosphere are important factors that determine the onset, strength, duration and spatial distribution of large-scale monsoons. A global and seasonal assessment of land surface process (LSP) effects on the monsoon system has been made based on general circulation models (GCM) coupled to different benchmark land models, which physically represent either comprehensive, or partial, or minimal LSP representations. Observed precipitation is applied as constrain and differences in simulation error are used to assess the effect of the LSP with different complexity. The AGCM results indicate that the land/atmosphere interaction has substantial impact on global water cycle, while the monsoon regions have had strongest impact at intraseasonal to decadal scales. Among monsoon regions, West Africa, South Asia, East Asia, and Amazon regions have largest impact while some monsoon regions have less impact due to strong air/sea interactions and narrow land mass. LSP reduces the annual precipitation error by 58% over global monsoon regions, about 35% observed precipitation. The partial LSP effect (excluding soil moisture and vegetation albedo) reduces annual precipitation error over monsoon region that equals to about 13% of observed precipitation. It has also been suggested that LSP contribute to the abrupt jump in latitude of the East Asian monsoon as well as general circulation turning in some monsoon regions in its early stages. The LSP effects have also been assessed in the land use land cover change experiment. Based on recently compiled global land-use data from 1948-2005, the GCM simulation results indicate the degradation in Mexico, West Africa, south and East Asia and South America produce substantial precipitation anomalies, some of which are consistent with observed regional precipitation anomalies. More comprehensive studies with multi-models are imperatively necessary.

  2. Land-surface processes and monsoon climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Yongkang; De Sales, Fernando; Lau, William; Boone, Arron; Mechoso, Carlos

    2015-04-01

    Yongkang Xue, F. De Sales, B. Lau, A. Boone, C. R. Mechoso Differential thermal heating of land and ocean and heat release into the atmosphere are important factors that determine the onset, strength, duration and spatial distribution of large-scale monsoons. A global and seasonal assessment of land surface process (LSP) effects on the monsoon system has been made based on general circulation models (GCM) coupled to different benchmark land models, which physically represent either comprehensive, or partial, or minimal LSP representations. Observed precipitation is applied as constrain and differences in simulation error are used to assess the effect of the LSP with different complexity. The AGCM results indicate that the land/atmosphere interaction has substantial impact on global water cycle, while the monsoon regions have had strongest impact at intraseasonal to decadal scales. Among monsoon regions, West Africa, South Asia, East Asia, and Amazon regions have largest impact while some monsoon regions have less impact due to strong air/sea interactions and narrow land mass there. LSP reduces the annual precipitation error by 58% over global monsoon regions, about 35% observed precipitation. The partial LSP effect (excluding soil moisture and vegetation albedo) reduces annual precipitation error over monsoon region that equals to about 13% of observed precipitation. The LSP affects the monsoon evolution through different mechanisms at different scales. It affects the surface energy balance and energy partitioning in latent and sensible heat, the atmospheric heating rate, and general circulation. The LSP effects have also been assessed in the land use land cover change experiment. Based on recently compiled global land-use data from 1948-2005, the GCM simulation results indicate the degradation in Mexico, West Africa, south and East Asia and South America produce substantial precipitation anomalies, some of which are consistent with observed regional precipitation

  3. Understanding Student Cognition about Complex Earth System Processes Related to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNeal, K. S.; Libarkin, J.; Ledley, T. S.; Dutta, S.; Templeton, M. C.; Geroux, J.; Blakeney, G. A.

    2011-12-01

    The Earth's climate system includes complex behavior and interconnections with other Earth spheres that present challenges to student learning. To better understand these unique challenges, we have conducted experiments with high-school and introductory level college students to determine how information pertaining to the connections between the Earth's atmospheric system and the other Earth spheres (e.g., hydrosphere and cryosphere) are processed. Specifically, we include psychomotor tests (e.g., eye-tracking) and open-ended questionnaires in this research study, where participants were provided scientific images of the Earth (e.g., global precipitation and ocean and atmospheric currents), eye-tracked, and asked to provide causal or relational explanations about the viewed images. In addition, the students engaged in on-line modules (http://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/climate/index.html) focused on Earth system science as training activities to address potential cognitive barriers. The developed modules included interactive media, hands-on lessons, links to outside resources, and formative assessment questions to promote a supportive and data-rich learning environment. Student eye movements were tracked during engagement with the materials to determine the role of perception and attention on understanding. Students also completed a conceptual questionnaire pre-post to determine if these on-line curriculum materials assisted in their development of connections between Earth's atmospheric system and the other Earth systems. The pre-post results of students' thinking about climate change concepts, as well as eye-tracking results, will be presented.

  4. Urban drainage system planning and design--challenges with climate change and urbanization: a review.

    PubMed

    Yazdanfar, Zeinab; Sharma, Ashok

    2015-01-01

    Urban drainage systems are in general failing in their functions mainly due to non-stationary climate and rapid urbanization. As these systems are becoming less efficient, issues such as sewer overflows and increase in urban flooding leading to surge in pollutant loads to receiving water bodies are becoming pervasive rapidly. A comprehensive investigation is required to understand these factors impacting the functioning of urban drainage, which vary spatially and temporally and are more complex when weaving together. It is necessary to establish a cost-effective, integrated planning and design framework for every local area by incorporating fit for purpose alternatives. Carefully selected adaptive measures are required for the provision of sustainable drainage systems to meet combined challenges of climate change and urbanization. This paper reviews challenges associated with urban drainage systems and explores limitations and potentials of different adaptation alternatives. It is hoped that the paper would provide drainage engineers, water planners, and decision makers with the state of the art information and technologies regarding adaptation options to increase drainage systems efficiency under changing climate and urbanization. PMID:26177398

  5. Urban drainage system planning and design--challenges with climate change and urbanization: a review.

    PubMed

    Yazdanfar, Zeinab; Sharma, Ashok

    2015-01-01

    Urban drainage systems are in general failing in their functions mainly due to non-stationary climate and rapid urbanization. As these systems are becoming less efficient, issues such as sewer overflows and increase in urban flooding leading to surge in pollutant loads to receiving water bodies are becoming pervasive rapidly. A comprehensive investigation is required to understand these factors impacting the functioning of urban drainage, which vary spatially and temporally and are more complex when weaving together. It is necessary to establish a cost-effective, integrated planning and design framework for every local area by incorporating fit for purpose alternatives. Carefully selected adaptive measures are required for the provision of sustainable drainage systems to meet combined challenges of climate change and urbanization. This paper reviews challenges associated with urban drainage systems and explores limitations and potentials of different adaptation alternatives. It is hoped that the paper would provide drainage engineers, water planners, and decision makers with the state of the art information and technologies regarding adaptation options to increase drainage systems efficiency under changing climate and urbanization.

  6. Assessing the vulnerability of traditional maize seed systems in Mexico to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Bellon, Mauricio R.; Hodson, David; Hellin, Jon

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is predicted to have major impacts on small-scale farmers in Mexico whose livelihoods depend on rain-fed maize. We examined the capacity of traditional maize seed systems to provide these farmers with appropriate genetic material under predicted agro-ecological conditions associated with climate change. We studied the structure and spatial scope of seed systems of 20 communities in four transects across an altitudinal gradient from 10–2,980 m above sea level in five states of eastern Mexico. Results indicate that 90% of all of the seed lots are obtained within 10 km of a community and 87% within an altitudinal range of ±50 m but with variation across four agro-climate environments: wet lowland, dry lowland, wet upper midlatitude, and highlands. Climate models suggest a drying and warming trend for the entire study area during the main maize season, leading to substantial shifts in the spatial distribution patterns of agro-climate environments. For all communities except those in the highlands, predicted future maize environments already are represented within the 10-km radial zones, indicating that in the future farmers will have easy access to adapted planting material. Farmers in the highlands are the most vulnerable and probably will need to acquire seed from outside their traditional geographical ranges. This change in seed sources probably will entail important information costs and the development of new seed and associated social networks, including improved linkages between traditional and formal seed systems and more effective and efficient seed-supply chains. The study has implications for analogous areas elsewhere in Mexico and around the world. PMID:21825131

  7. Assessing the vulnerability of traditional maize seed systems in Mexico to climate change.

    PubMed

    Bellon, Mauricio R; Hodson, David; Hellin, Jon

    2011-08-16

    Climate change is predicted to have major impacts on small-scale farmers in Mexico whose livelihoods depend on rain-fed maize. We examined the capacity of traditional maize seed systems to provide these farmers with appropriate genetic material under predicted agro-ecological conditions associated with climate change. We studied the structure and spatial scope of seed systems of 20 communities in four transects across an altitudinal gradient from 10-2,980 m above sea level in five states of eastern Mexico. Results indicate that 90% of all of the seed lots are obtained within 10 km of a community and 87% within an altitudinal range of ±50 m but with variation across four agro-climate environments: wet lowland, dry lowland, wet upper midlatitude, and highlands. Climate models suggest a drying and warming trend for the entire study area during the main maize season, leading to substantial shifts in the spatial distribution patterns of agro-climate environments. For all communities except those in the highlands, predicted future maize environments already are represented within the 10-km radial zones, indicating that in the future farmers will have easy access to adapted planting material. Farmers in the highlands are the most vulnerable and probably will need to acquire seed from outside their traditional geographical ranges. This change in seed sources probably will entail important information costs and the development of new seed and associated social networks, including improved linkages between traditional and formal seed systems and more effective and efficient seed-supply chains. The study has implications for analogous areas elsewhere in Mexico and around the world.

  8. Data-Driven Synthesis for Investigating Food Systems Resilience to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magliocca, N. R.; Hart, D.; Hondula, K. L.; Munoz, I.; Shelley, M.; Smorul, M.

    2014-12-01

    The production, supply, and distribution of our food involves a complex set of interactions between farmers, rural communities, governments, and global commodity markets that link important issues such as environmental quality, agricultural science and technology, health and nutrition, rural livelihoods, and social institutions and equality - all of which will be affected by climate change. The production of actionable science is thus urgently needed to inform and prepare the public for the consequences of climate change for local and global food systems. Access to data that spans multiple sectors/domains and spatial and temporal scales is key to beginning to tackle such complex issues. As part of the White House's Climate Data Initiative, the USDA and the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) are launching a new collaboration to catalyze data-driven research to enhance food systems resilience to climate change. To support this collaboration, SESYNC is developing a new "Data to Motivate Synthesis" program designed to engage early career scholars in a highly interactive and dynamic process of real-time data discovery, analysis, and visualization to catalyze new research questions and analyses that would not have otherwise been possible and/or apparent. This program will be supported by an integrated, spatially-enabled cyberinfrastructure that enables the management, intersection, and analysis of large heterogeneous datasets relevant to food systems resilience to climate change. Our approach is to create a series of geospatial abstraction data structures and visualization services that can be used to accelerate analysis and visualization across various socio-economic and environmental datasets (e.g., reconcile census data with remote sensing raster datasets). We describe the application of this approach with a pilot workshop of socio-environmental scholars that will lay the groundwork for the larger SESYNC-USDA collaboration. We discuss the

  9. Climate change and climate systems influence and control the atmospheric dispersion of desert dust: implications for human health

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Griffin, Dale W.; Ragaini, Richard C.

    2010-01-01

    The global dispersion of desert dust through Earth’s atmosphere is greatly influenced by temperature. Temporal analyses of ice core data have demonstrated that enhanced dust dispersion occurs during glacial events. This is due to an increase in ice cover, which results in an increase in drier terrestrial cover. A shorter temporal analysis of dust dispersion data over the last 40 years has demonstrated an increase in dust transport. Climate systems or events such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Indian Ocean subtropical High, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and El Nino-Sothern Oscillation are known to influence global short-term dust dispersion occurrence and transport routes. Anthropogenic influences on dust transport include deforestation, harmful use of topsoil for agriculture as observed during the American Dust Bowl period, and the creation of dry seas (Aral Sea) and lakes (Lake Owens in California and Lake Chad in North Africa) through the diversion of source waters (for irrigation and drinking water supplies). Constituents of desert dust both from source regions (pathogenic microorganisms, organic and inorganic toxins) and those scavenged through atmospheric transport (i.e., industrial and agricultural emissions) are known to directly impact human and ecosystem health. This presentation will present a review of global scale dust storms and how these events can be both a detriment and benefit to various organisms in downwind environments.

  10. The Community Land Model and Its Climate Statistics as a Component of the Community Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Dickinson, Robert E.; Oleson, Keith; Bonan, Gordon; Hoffman, Forrest M; Thornton, Peter; Vertenstein, Mariana; Yang, Zong-Liang; Zeng, Xubin

    2006-01-01

    Several multidecadal simulations have been carried out with the new version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). This paper reports an analysis of the land component of these simulations. Global annual averages over land appear to be within the uncertainty of observational datasets, but the seasonal cycle over land of temperature and precipitation appears to be too weak. These departures from observations appear to be primarily a consequence of deficiencies in the simulation of the atmospheric model rather than of the land processes. High latitudes of northern winter are biased sufficiently warm to have a significant impact on the simulated value of global land temperature. The precipitation is approximately doubled from what it should be at some locations, and the snowpack and spring runoff are also excessive. The winter precipitation over Tibet is larger than observed. About two-thirds of this precipitation is sublimated during the winter, but what remains still produces a snowpack that is very large compared to that observed with correspondingly excessive spring runoff. A large cold anomaly over the Sahara Desert and Sahel also appears to be a consequence of a large anomaly in downward longwave radiation; low column water vapor appears to be most responsible. The modeled precipitation over the Amazon basin is low compared to that observed, the soil becomes too dry, and the temperature is too warm during the dry season.

  11. GFDL's unified regional-global weather-climate modeling system with variable resolution capability for severe weather predictions and regional climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, S. J.

    2015-12-01

    The NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been developing a unified regional-global modeling system with variable resolution capabilities that can be used for severe weather predictions (e.g., tornado outbreak events and cat-5 hurricanes) and ultra-high-resolution (1-km) regional climate simulations within a consistent global modeling framework. The fundation of this flexible regional-global modeling system is the non-hydrostatic extension of the vertically Lagrangian dynamical core (Lin 2004, Monthly Weather Review) known in the community as FV3 (finite-volume on the cubed-sphere). Because of its flexability and computational efficiency, the FV3 is one of the final candidates of NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). We have built into the modeling system a stretched (single) grid capability, a two-way (regional-global) multiple nested grid capability, and the combination of the stretched and two-way nests, so as to make convection-resolving regional climate simulation within a consistent global modeling system feasible using today's High Performance Computing System. One of our main scientific goals is to enable simulations of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously regarded as impossible. In this presentation I will demonstrate that it is computationally feasible to simulate not only super-cell thunderstorms, but also the subsequent genesis of tornadoes using a global model that was originally designed for century long climate simulations. As a unified weather-climate modeling system, we evaluated the performance of the model with horizontal resolution ranging from 1 km to as low as 200 km. In particular, for downscaling studies, we have developed various tests to ensure that the large-scale circulation within the global varaible resolution system is well simulated while at the same time the small-scale can be accurately captured

  12. Climate engineering of vegetated land for hot extremes mitigation: An Earth system model sensitivity study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilhelm, Micah; Davin, Edouard L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2015-04-01

    Various climate engineering schemes have been proposed as a way to curb anthropogenic climate change. Land climate engineering schemes aiming to reduce the amount of solar radiation absorbed at the surface by changes in land surface albedo have been considered in a limited number of investigations. However, global studies on this topic have generally focused on the impacts on mean climate rather than extremes. Here we present the results of a series of transient global climate engineering sensitivity experiments performed with the Community Earth System Model over the time period 1950-2100 under historical and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenarios. Four sets of experiments are performed in which the surface albedo over snow-free vegetated grid points is increased respectively by 0.05, 0.10, 0.15, and 0.20. The simulations show a preferential cooling of hot extremes relative to mean temperatures throughout the Northern midlatitudes during boreal summer under the late twentieth century conditions. Two main mechanisms drive this response: On the one hand, a stronger efficacy of the albedo-induced radiative forcing on days with high incoming shortwave radiation and, on the other hand, enhanced soil moisture-induced evaporative cooling during the warmest days relative to the control simulation due to accumulated soil moisture storage and reduced drying. The latter effect is dominant in summer in midlatitude regions and also implies a reduction of summer drought conditions. It thus constitutes another important benefit of surface albedo modifications in reducing climate change impacts. The simulated response for the end of the 21st century conditions is of the same sign as that for the end of the twentieth century conditions but indicates an increasing absolute impact of land surface albedo increases in reducing mean and extreme temperatures under enhanced greenhouse gas forcing.

  13. Climate correlates of 20 years of trophic changes in a high-elevation riparian system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, T.E.

    2007-01-01

    The consequences of climate change for ecosystem structure and function remain largely unknown. Here, I examine the ability of climate variation to explain long-term changes in bird and plant populations, as well as trophic interactions in a high-elevation riparian system in central Arizona, USA, based on 20 years of study. Abundances of dominant deciduous trees have declined dramatically over the 20 years, correlated with a decline in overwinter snowfall. Snowfall can affect overwinter presence of elk, whose browsing can significantly impact deciduous tree abundance. Thus, climate may affect the plant community indirectly through effects on herbivores, but may also act directly by influencing water availability for plants. Seven species of birds were found to initiate earlier breeding associated with an increase in spring temperature across years. The advance in breeding time did not affect starvation of young or clutch size. Earlier breeding also did not increase the length of the breeding season for single-brooded species, but did for multi-brooded species. Yet, none of these phenology-related changes was associated with bird population trends. Climate had much larger consequences for these seven bird species by affecting trophic levels below (plants) and above (predators) the birds. In particular, the climate-related declines in deciduous vegetation led to decreased abundance of preferred bird habitat and increased nest predation rates. In addition, summer precipitation declined over time, and drier summers also were further associated with greater nest predation in all species. The net result was local extinction and severe population declines in some previously common bird species, whereas one species increased strongly in abundance, and two species did not show clear population changes. These data indicate that climate can alter ecosystem structure and function through complex pathways that include direct and indirect effects on abundances and interactions

  14. Climate correlates of 20 years of trophic changes in a high-elevation riparian system.

    PubMed

    Martin, Thomas E

    2007-02-01

    The consequences of climate change for ecosystem structure and function remain largely unknown. Here, I examine the ability of climate variation to explain long-term changes in bird and plant populations, as well as trophic interactions in a high-elevation riparian system in central Arizona, USA, based on 20 years of study. Abundances of dominant deciduous trees have declined dramatically over the 20 years, correlated with a decline in overwinter snowfall. Snowfall can affect overwinter presence of elk, whose browsing can significantly impact deciduous tree abundance. Thus, climate may affect the plant community indirectly through effects on herbivores, but may also act directly by influencing water availability for plants. Seven species of birds were found to initiate earlier breeding associated with an increase in spring temperature across years. The advance in breeding time did not affect starvation of young or clutch size. Earlier breeding also did not increase the length of the breeding season for single-brooded species, but did for multi-brooded species. Yet, none of these phenology-related changes was associated with bird population trends. Climate had much larger consequences for these seven bird species by affecting trophic levels below (plants) and above (predators) the birds. In particular, the climate-related declines in deciduous vegetation led to decreased abundance of preferred bird habitat and increased nest predation rates. In addition, summer precipitation declined over time, and drier summers also were further associated with greater nest predation in all species. The net result was local extinction and severe population declines in some previously common bird species, whereas one species increased strongly in abundance, and two species did not show clear population changes. These data indicate that climate can alter ecosystem structure and function through complex pathways that include direct and indirect effects on abundances and interactions

  15. Impacts and environmental catastrophes: A study of the effects of impact events on the climate system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pierazzo, E.

    2005-01-01

    The goal of this work is to investigate the perturbation of the climate system due to large impact events. Impacts are among the most important mechanisms for the evolution, distribution, and destruction of life in the universe. However, the possible climatic effects of an impact were not seriously considered until 1980, when Louis and Walter Alvarez suggested that the profound end-Cretaceous extinction might have been caused by the impact of an asteroid or comet about 10 km in diameter. Since then, the climatic change associated with the end-Cretaceous impact has become one of the most interesting and still unresolved questions in linking the well-known Chicxulub impact event and the end- Cretaceous mass extinction. While the end-Cretaceous impact offers the best-documented case of an impact affecting the Earth's climate and biota, even smaller (and more frequent in time) impacts could introduce significant perturbations of the climate comparable, if not larger, to the largest known volcanic perturbations. We propose to study the mechanical and thermal state of the atmosphere following an impact event. This will be done by using both one-dimensional and three-dimensional climate models. When necessary, modifications of the state-of-the-art general circulation models will b e carried out. We want to use the end-Cretaceous impact event as a case study. This allows us to take advantage of the extensive modeling of this impact event that has already been carried out through a previous Exobiology grant. Furthermore, a large experimental dataset, that can be used to constrain and test our models, is associated with the end-Cretaceous mass extinction (one of the largest of the Phanerozoic) and impact event.

  16. Uncertainty quantification and propagation in a complex human-environment system driven by fire and climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terando, A. J.; Reich, B. J.; Pacifici, K.

    2013-12-01

    Fire is an important disturbance process in many coupled natural-human systems. Changes in the frequency and severity of fires due to anthropogenic climate change could have significant costs to society and the plant and animal communities that are adapted to a particular fire regime Planning for these changes requires a robust model of the relationship between climate and fire that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty that are present when simulating ecological and climatological processes. Here we model how anthropogenic climate change could affect the wildfire regime for a region in the Southeast US whose natural ecosystems are dependent on frequent, low-intensity fires while humans are at risk from large catastrophic fires. We develop a modeling framework that incorporates three major sources of uncertainty: (1) uncertainty in the ecological drivers of expected monthly area burned, (2) uncertainty in the environmental drivers influencing the probability of an extreme fire event, and (3) structural uncertainty in different downscaled climate models. In addition we use two policy-relevant emission scenarios (climate stabilization and 'business-as-usual') to characterize the uncertainty in future greenhouse gas forcings. We use a Bayesian framework to incorporate different sources of uncertainty including simulation of predictive errors and Stochastic Search Variable Selection. Our results suggest that although the mean process remains stationary, the probability of extreme fires declines through time, owing to the persistence of high atmospheric moisture content during the peak fire season that dampens the effect of increasing temperatures. Including multiple sources of uncertainty leads to wide prediction intervals, but is potentially more useful for decision-makers that will require adaptation strategies that are robust to rapid but uncertain climate and ecological change.

  17. Climate change and livestock system in mountain: Understanding from Gandaki River basin of Nepal Himalaya.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dahal, P.; Shrestha, N. S.; Krakauer, N.; Lakhankar, T.; Panthi, J., Sr.; Pradhanang, S.; Jha, A. K.; Shrestha, M.; Sharma, M.

    2015-12-01

    In recent years climate change has emerged as a source of vulnerability for agro-livestock smallholders in Nepal where people are mostly dependent on rain-fed agriculture and livestock farming for their livelihoods. There is a need to understand and predict the potential impacts of climate change on agro-livestock farmer to develop effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. To understand dynamics of this vulnerability, we assess the farmers' perceptions of climate change, analysis of historical and future projections of climatic parameters and try to understand impact of climate change on livestock system in Gandaki River Basin of Central Nepal. During the period of 1981-2012, as reported by the mountain communities, the most serious hazards for livestock system and agriculture are the increasing trend of temperature, erratic rainfall patterns and increase in drought. Poor households without irrigated land are facing greater risks and stresses than well-off people. Analysis of historical climate data also supports the farmer perception. Result shows that there is increasing trend of temperature but no consistent trend in precipitation but a notable finding is that wet areas are getting wetter and dry areas getting drier. Besides that, there is increase in percentage of warm days and nights with decrease in the cool nights and days. The magnitude of the trend is found to be higher in high altitude. Trend of wet days has found to be increasing with decreasing in rainy days. Most areas are characterized by increases in both severity and frequency of drought and are more evident in recent years. The summers of 2004/05/06/09 and winters of 2006/08/09 were the worst widespread droughts and have a serious impact on livestock since 1981. Future projected change in temperature and precipitation obtained from downscaling the data global model by regional climate model shows that precipitation in central Nepal will change by -8% to 12% and temperature will change by 1

  18. Cultivating a Network For Messaging About Climate Change Across an Urban System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wertheim, J.

    2014-12-01

    Currently, some of the most promising efforts to address climate change are taking place at the scale of cities and municipalities. Large urban areas host an active population of organizations working to influence local environmental policies more rigorous than those at the state and national level. The composition of these groups is broadening as impacts of climate change are being recognized as relevant to more sectors within urban systems, from health centers to community leaders, leading more organizations to consider how they can raise awareness and gain support for their needs. The National Geographic Society, as part of the National Science Foundation (NSF)-funded Climate and Urban Systems Partnership (CUSP), has convened a pilot "community of practice" (CoP) consisting of organizations working at the local level in Washington, DC to communicate with audiences, from the general public to local government agencies, about ways that climate change is predicted to affect the city and what can be done about it. The purpose of the CoP was initially to help these groups coordinate their activities, share knowledge and resources, and to create a platform for ongoing collaborative learning. While the CoP is still evolving, it is clear that it has potential to provide even deeper and more meaningful support to these groups' efforts. Developing effective messaging about climate change across an urban system depends on the valuable insight these groups have into their audience's interests, beliefs, and knowledge, but it also requires a set of competencies that few members of the CoP hold. As conveners of the CoP, we have identified and prioritized those competencies and are developing a process for training CoP members to apply their expertise to implement empirically-based best practices in climate change messaging, public communication, and integration of data and visualizations. The process of training the group has the potential to both create a CoP that becomes a

  19. Analysis of Radiant Cooling System Configurations Integrated with Cooling Tower for Different Indian Climatic Zones

    SciTech Connect

    Mathur, Jyotirmay; Bhandari, Mahabir S; Jain, Robin; Srivastava, Prateek

    2016-01-01

    Radiant cooling system has proven to be a low energy consumption system for building cooling needs. This study describes the use of cooling tower in radiant cooling system to improve the overall system efficiency. A comprehensive simulation feasibility study of the application of cooling tower in radiant cooling system was performed for the fifteen cities in different climatic zones of India. It was found that in summer, the wet bulb temperature (WBT) of the different climatic zones except warm-humid is suitable for the integration of cooling tower with radiant cooling system. In these climates, cooling tower can provide on average 24 C to 27 C water In order to achieve the energy saving potential, three different configurations of radiant cooling system have been compared in terms of energy consumption. The different configurations of the radiant cooling system integrated with cooling tower are: (1) provide chilled water to the floor, wall and ceiling mounted tubular installation. (2) provide chilled water to the wall and ceiling mounted tabular installation. In this arrangement a separate chiller has also been used to provide chilled water at 16 C to the floor mounted tubular installation. (3) provide chilled water to the wall mounted tabular installation and a separate chiller is used to provide chilled water at 16 C to the floor and ceiling mounted tabular installation. A dedicated outdoor air system is also coupled for dehumidification and ventilation in all three configurations. A conventional all-air system was simulated as a baseline to compare these configurations for assessing the energy saving potential.

  20. Direct and semi-direct aerosol radiative effect on the Mediterranean climate variability using a coupled regional climate system model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nabat, Pierre; Somot, Samuel; Mallet, Marc; Sevault, Florence; Chiacchio, Marc; Wild, Martin

    2015-02-01

    A fully coupled regional climate system model (CNRM-RCSM4) has been used over the Mediterranean region to investigate the direct and semi-direct effects of aerosols, but also their role in the radiation-atmosphere-ocean interactions through multi-annual ensemble simulations (2003-2009) with and without aerosols and ocean-atmosphere coupling. Aerosols have been taken into account in CNRM-RCSM4 through realistic interannual monthly AOD climatologies. An evaluation of the model has been achieved, against various observations for meteorological parameters, and has shown the ability of CNRM-RCSM4 to reproduce the main patterns of the Mediterranean climate despite some biases in sea surface temperature (SST), radiation and cloud cover. The results concerning the aerosol radiative effects show a negative surface forcing on average because of the absorption and scattering of the incident radiation. The SW surface direct effect is on average -20.9 Wm-2 over the Mediterranean Sea, -14.7 Wm-2 over Europe and -19.7 Wm-2 over northern Africa. The LW surface direct effect is weaker as only dust aerosols contribute (+4.8 Wm-2 over northern Africa). This direct effect is partly counterbalanced by a positive semi-direct radiative effect over the Mediterranean Sea (+5.7 Wm-2 on average) and Europe (+5.0 Wm-2) due to changes in cloud cover and atmospheric circulation. The total aerosol effect is consequently negative at the surface and responsible for a decrease in land (on average -0.4 °C over Europe, and -0.5 °C over northern Africa) and sea surface temperature (on average -0.5 °C for the Mediterranean SST). In addition, the latent heat loss is shown to be weaker (-11.0 Wm-2) in the presence of aerosols, resulting in a decrease in specific humidity in the lower troposphere, and a reduction in cloud cover and precipitation. Simulations also indicate that dust aerosols warm the troposphere by absorbing solar radiation, and prevent radiation from reaching the surface, thus

  1. Testing a theory of organizational culture, climate and youth outcomes in child welfare systems: a United States national study.

    PubMed

    Williams, Nathaniel J; Glisson, Charles

    2014-04-01

    Theories of organizational culture and climate (OCC) applied to child welfare systems hypothesize that strategic dimensions of organizational culture influence organizational climate and that OCC explains system variance in youth outcomes. This study provides the first structural test of the direct and indirect effects of culture and climate on youth outcomes in a national sample of child welfare systems and isolates specific culture and climate dimensions most associated with youth outcomes. The study applies multilevel path analysis (ML-PA) to a U.S. nationwide sample of 2,380 youth in 73 child welfare systems participating in the second National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-being. Youths were selected in a national, two-stage, stratified random sample design. Youths' psychosocial functioning was assessed by caregivers' responses to the Child Behavior Checklist at intake and at 18-month follow-up. OCC was assessed by front-line caseworkers' (N=1,740) aggregated responses to the Organizational Social Context measure. Comparison of the a priori and subsequent trimmed models confirmed a reduced model that excluded rigid organizational culture and explained 70% of the system variance in youth outcomes. Controlling for youth- and system-level covariates, systems with more proficient and less resistant organizational cultures exhibited more functional, more engaged, and less stressful climates. Systems with more proficient cultures and more engaged, more functional, and more stressful climates exhibited superior youth outcomes. Findings suggest child welfare administrators can support service effectiveness with interventions that improve specific dimensions of culture and climate.

  2. A multi-resolution method for climate system modeling: application of spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellations

    SciTech Connect

    Ringler, Todd; Ju, Lili; Gunzburger, Max

    2008-01-01

    During the next decade and beyond, climate system models will be challenged to resolve scales and processes that are far beyond their current scope. Each climate system component has its prototypical example of an unresolved process that may strongly influence the global climate system, ranging from eddy activity within ocean models, to ice streams within ice sheet models, to surface hydrological processes within land system models, to cloud processes within atmosphere models. These new demands will almost certainly result in the develop of multiresolution schemes that are able, at least regionally, to faithfully simulate these fine-scale processes. Spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellations (SCVTs) offer one potential path toward the development of a robust, multiresolution climate system model components. SCVTs allow for the generation of high quality Voronoi diagrams and Delaunay triangulations through the use of an intuitive, user-defined density function. In each of the examples provided, this method results in high-quality meshes where the quality measures are guaranteed to improve as the number of nodes is increased. Real-world examples are developed for the Greenland ice sheet and the North Atlantic ocean. Idealized examples are developed for ocean–ice shelf interaction and for regional atmospheric modeling. In addition to defining, developing, and exhibiting SCVTs, we pair this mesh generation technique with a previously developed finite-volume method. Our numerical example is based on the nonlinear, shallow water equations spanning the entire surface of the sphere. This example is used to elucidate both the potential benefits of this multiresolution method and the challenges ahead.

  3. Beyond climate-smart agriculture: toward safe operating spaces for global food systems

    SciTech Connect

    Gulledge, Jay; Neufeldt, Heinrich; Jahn, Margaret M; Lezaks, David P; Meinke, Jan H; Scholes, Robert J

    2013-01-01

    Agriculture is considered to be climate-smart when it contributes to increasing food security, adaptation and mitigation in a sustainable way. This new concept now dominates current discussions in agricultural development because of its capacity to unite the agendas of the agriculture, development and climate change communities under one brand. In this opinion piece authored by scientists from a variety of international agricultural and climate research communities, we argue that the concept needs to be evaluated critically because the relationship between the three dimensions is poorly understood, such that practically any improved agricultural practice can be considered climate-smart. This lack of clarity may have contributed to the broad appeal of the concept. From the understanding that we must hold ourselves accountable to demonstrably better meet human needs in the short and long term within foreseeable local and planetary limits, we develop a conceptualization of climate-smart agriculture as agriculture that can be shown to bring us closer to safe operating spaces for agricultural and food systems across spatial and temporal scales. Improvements in the management of agricultural systems that bring us significantly closer to safe operating spaces will require transformations in governance and use of our natural resources, underpinned by enabling political, social and economic conditions beyond incremental changes. Establishing scientifically credible indicators and metrics of long-term safe operating spaces in the context of a changing climate and growing social-ecological challenges is critical to creating the societal demand and political will required to motivate deep transformations. Answering questions on how the needed transformational change can be achieved will require actively setting and testing hypotheses to refine and characterize our concepts of safer spaces for social-ecological systems across scales. This effort will demand prioritizing key

  4. Taming Typhon: Advancing Climate Literacy by Coordinating Federal Earth System Science Education Investments Through the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karsten, J. L.; Niepold, F.; Wei, M.; Waple, A. M.

    2008-12-01

    consensus framework to define climate literacy; (2) a protocol and process for vetting, reviewing, and assuring scientific quality of educational materials related to climate change; (3) a Federal network of professionals who can share, access, and identify complementary educational materials; (4) a suite of evaluation tools to gauge effectiveness of interagency programs related to climate change education; (5) a clearinghouse or central repository of climate change education resources and expertise; and (6) professional development resources for educators seeking to improve their understanding of climate change and related Earth system science principles.

  5. The GLOBE Carbon Cycle Project: Using a systems approach to understand carbon and the Earth's climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silverberg, S. K.; Ollinger, S. V.; Martin, M. E.; Gengarelly, L. M.; Schloss, A. L.; Bourgeault, J. L.; Randolph, G.; Albrechtova, J.

    2009-12-01

    National Science Content Standards identify systems as an important unifying concept across the K-12 curriculum. While this standard exists, there is a recognized gap in the ability of students to use a systems thinking approach in their learning. In a similar vein, both popular media as well as some educational curricula move quickly through climate topics to carbon footprint analyses without ever addressing the nature of carbon or the carbon cycle. If students do not gain a concrete understanding of carbon’s role in climate and energy they will not be able to successfully tackle global problems and develop innovative solutions. By participating in the GLOBE Carbon Cycle project, students learn to use a systems thinking approach, while at the same time, gaining a foundation in the carbon cycle and it's relation to climate and energy. Here we present the GLOBE Carbon Cycle project and materials, which incorporate a diverse set of activities geared toward upper middle and high school students with a variety of learning styles. A global carbon cycle adventure story and game let students see the carbon cycle as a complete system, while introducing them to systems thinking concepts including reservoirs, fluxes and equilibrium. Classroom photosynthesis experiments and field measurements of schoolyard vegetation brings the global view to the local level. And the use of computer models at varying levels of complexity (effects on photosynthesis, biomass and carbon storage in global biomes, global carbon cycle) not only reinforces systems concepts and carbon content, but also introduces students to an important scientific tool necessary for understanding climate change.

  6. An automated system for access to derived climate indices in support of ecological impacts assessments and resource management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, J.; Morisette, J. T.; Talbert, C.; Blodgett, D. L.; Kunicki, T.

    2012-12-01

    A U.S. Geological Survey team is working with several providers to establish standard data services for the climate projection data they host. To meet the needs of climate adaptation science and landscape management communities, the team is establishing a set of climate index calculation algorithms that will consume data from various providers and provide directly useful data derivatives. Climate projections coming from various scenarios, modeling centers, and downscaling methods are increasing in number and size. Global change impact modeling and assessment, generally, requires inputs in the form of climate indices or values derived from raw climate projections. This requirement puts a large burden on a community not familiar with climate data formats, semantics, and processing techniques and requires storage capacity and computing resources out of the reach of most. In order to fully understand the implications of our best available climate projections, assessments must take into account an ensemble of climate projections and potentially a range of parameters for calculation of climate indices. These requirements around data access and processing are not unique from project to project, or even among projected climate data sets, pointing to the need for a reusable tool to generate climate indices. The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a pilot application and supporting web service framework that automates the generation of climate indices. The web service framework consists of standards-based data servers and a data integration broker. The resulting system allows data producers to publish and maintain ownership of their data and data consumers to access climate derivatives via a simple to use "data product ordering" workflow. Data access and processing is completed on enterprise "cloud" computing resources and only the relatively small, derived climate indices are delivered to the scientist or land manager. These services will assist the scientific and land

  7. The change of the Tibetan Plateau climate system and its impact on eastern Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Yaoming

    2015-04-01

    As the Third Pole of the earth, the Tibetan Plateau is an important water source of Asia. The 10 major rivers in China and abroad developed from the Tibet Plateau and provide living and production water for 1/3 of the world's population in East Asia and South Asia. The powerful dynamic and thermal effects of the Tibet Plateau significantly affect the East Asian climate pattern, the process of the Asian monsoon and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. Global change influences the processes of hydrosphere and cryosphere on the Tibetan Plateau, changes the ecosystem and environment within the plateau, and affects the socio-economic development and living condition of people in the region. In addition to that, through atmospheric circulation and water cycle, global change directly impacts water security and nature disaster protection in East Asia and surrounding nations. In order to study on the change of the Tibetan Plateau climate system and the mechanism of its impact on eastern Asia, one Chinese national research programme was launched in 2010. The research progresses of the programme in the past five years will be introduced. The research progresses are including four parts: the establishment an integrated network platform for the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding area "water - cryosphere -atmosphere -biology" observation, the study on the relation between the Tibet Plateau land surface-atmosphere interaction and atmospheric circulation anomalies, the study on the interactions among atmosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere on the Tibetan Plateau feeding back to climate change,and the study on the Tibetan Plateau climate system feeding back to East Asian regional climate change and its mechanism.

  8. Climate Analytics-As-a-Service (CAaas), Advanced Information Systems, and Services to Accelerate the Climate Sciences.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McInerney, M.; Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; Tamkin, G.; Nadeau, D.; Strong, S.; Thompson, J. H.; Sinno, S.; Lazar, D.

    2014-12-01

    The climate sciences represent a big data domain that is experiencing unprecedented growth. In our efforts to address the big data challenges of climate science, we are moving toward a notion of Climate Analytics-as-a-Service (CAaaS). We focus on analytics, because it is the knowledge gained from our interactions with big data that ultimately product societal benefits. We focus on CAaaS because we believe it provides a useful way of thinking about the problem: a specialization of the concept of business process-as-a-service, which is an evolving extension of IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS enabled by cloud computing. Within this framework, cloud computing plays an important role; however, we see it as only one element in a constellation of capabilities that are essential to delivering climate analytics-as-a-service. These elements are essential because in the aggregate they lead to generativity, a capacity for self-assembly that we feel is the key to solving many of the big data challenges in this domain. This poster will highlight specific examples of CAaaS using climate reanalysis data, high-performance cloud computing, map reduce, and the Climate Data Services API.

  9. Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Data Products for Climate Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kato, Seiji; Loeb, Norman G.; Rutan, David A.; Rose, Fred G.

    2015-01-01

    NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project integrates CERES, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and geostationary satellite observations to provide top-of-atmosphere (TOA) irradiances derived from broadband radiance observations by CERES instruments. It also uses snow cover and sea ice extent retrieved from microwave instruments as well as thermodynamic variables from reanalysis. In addition, these variables are used for surface and atmospheric irradiance computations. The CERES project provides TOA, surface, and atmospheric irradiances in various spatial and temporal resolutions. These data sets are for climate research and evaluation of climate models. Long-term observations are required to understand how the Earth system responds to radiative forcing. A simple model is used to estimate the time to detect trends in TOA reflected shortwave and emitted longwave irradiances.

  10. Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harriman, Lindsey M.

    2014-01-01

    With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

  11. Building America Residential System Research Results: Achieving 30% Whole House Energy Savings Level in Cold Climates

    SciTech Connect

    Building Industry Research Alliance; Building Science Consortium; Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings; Florida Solar Energy Center; IBACOS; National Renewable Energy Laboratory

    2006-08-01

    The Building America program conducts the system research required to reduce risks associated with the design and construction of homes that use an average of 30% to 90% less total energy for all residential energy uses than the Building America Research Benchmark, including research on homes that will use zero net energy on annual basis. To measure the program's progress, annual research milestones have been established for five major climate regions in the United States. The system research activities required to reach each milestone take from 3 to 5 years to complete and include research in individual test houses, studies in pre-production prototypes, and research studies with lead builders that provide early examples that the specified energy savings level can be successfully achieved on a production basis. This report summarizes research results for the 30% energy savings level and demonstrates that lead builders can successfully provide 30% homes in Cold Climates on a cost-neutral basis.

  12. Second California Assessment: Integrated climate change impacts assessment of natural and managed systems. Guest editorial

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Franco, G.; Cayan, D.R.; Moser, S.; Hanemann, M.; Jones, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006 the scientific community in California, in cooperation with resource managers, has been conducting periodic statewide studies about the potential impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems. This Special Issue is a compilation of revised papers that originate from the most recent assessment that concluded in 2009. As with the 2006 studies that influenced the passage of California's landmark Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), these papers have informed policy formulation at the state level, helping bring climate adaptation as a complementary measure to mitigation. We provide here a brief introduction to the papers included in this Special Issue focusing on how they are coordinated and support each other. We describe the common set of downscaled climate and sea-level rise scenarios used in this assessment that came from six different global climate models (GCMs) run under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: B1 (low emissions) and A2 (a medium-high emissions). Recommendations for future state assessments, some of which are being implemented in an on-going new assessment that will be completed in 2012, are offered. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  13. Solving climate uncertainty one tiny satellite at a time: Earth's Radiation Imbalance System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dyrud, L. P.; Wiscombe, W. J.; Nag, S.; Lorentz, S. R.; Trenberth, K. E.; Chiu, J. C.; Rossow, W. B.; Schwartz, S. E.; Swartz, W. H.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change results from a less than 1% imbalance between incoming solar energy and the reflected and re-radiated energy out to space. This Earth radiation imbalance (ERI) is assumed to be zero over decadal averages in the pre-industrial era. Using climate models and ocean heat content data, present-day annual-global-average ERI is estimated to be in the range of 0.5-1 W/m^2. Measurements of ERI accurate to at least 0.3 W m^-2 are critically needed for understanding climate change and developing capability for projection of future climate change, but until now obtaining such measurements has not been practical because of lack of measurement accuracy and the required number of satellites (at least 30-40) and attendant cost. Measuring ERI is now possible due to advances in accurate radiation measurement technology and to the availability of low cost cube-sats and numerous ride-share launch opportunities. NASA has recently funded the demonstration of the first of these ERI cube-sat systems called RAVAN (see link). Here we discuss the scientific motivation and execution vision for a large scale and potentially international collaboration to continuously launch and manage a constellation of these satellites for as little as $10M per year.

  14. Collaborative Research: Robust Climate Projections and Stochastic Stability of Dynamical Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Ghil, Michael; McWilliams, James; Neelin, J. David; Zaliapin, Ilya; Chekroun, Mickael; Kondrashov, Dmitri; Simonnet, Eric

    2011-10-13

    The project was completed along the lines of the original proposal, with additional elements arising as new results were obtained. The originally proposed three thrusts were expanded to include an additional, fourth one. (i) The e ffects of stochastic perturbations on climate models have been examined at the fundamental level by using the theory of deterministic and random dynamical systems, in both nite and in nite dimensions. (ii) The theoretical results have been implemented first on a delay-diff erential equation (DDE) model of the El-Nino/Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. (iii) More detailed, physical aspects of model robustness have been considered, as proposed, within the stripped-down ICTP-AGCM (formerly SPEEDY) climate model. This aspect of the research has been complemented by both observational and intermediate-model aspects of mid-latitude and tropical climate. (iv) An additional thrust of the research relied on new and unexpected results of (i) and involved reduced-modeling strategies and associated prediction aspects have been tested within the team's empirical model reduction (EMR) framework. Finally, more detailed, physical aspects have been considered within the stripped-down SPEEDY climate model. The results of each of these four complementary e fforts are presented in the next four sections, organized by topic and by the team members concentrating on the topic under discussion.

  15. Oscar: a portable prototype system for the study of climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madonna, Fabio; Rosoldi, Marco; Amato, Francesco

    2015-04-01

    The study of the techniques for the exploitation of solar energy implies the knowledge of nature, ecosystem, biological factors and local climate. Clouds, fog, water vapor, and the presence of large concentrations of dust can significantly affect the way to exploit the solar energy. Therefore, a quantitative characterization of the impact of climate variability at the regional scale is needed to increase the efficiency and sustainability of the energy system. OSCAR (Observation System for Climate Application at Regional scale) project, funded in the frame of the PO FESR 2007-2013, aims at the design of a portable prototype system for the study of correlations among the trends of several Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) and the change in the amount of solar irradiance at the ground level. The final goal of this project is to provide a user-friendly low cost solution for the quantification of the impact of regional climate variability on the efficiency of solar cell and concentrators to improve the exploitation of natural sources. The prototype has been designed on the basis of historical measurements performed at CNR-IMAA Atmospheric Observatory (CIAO). Measurements from satellite and data from models have been also considered as ancillary to the study, above all, to fill in the gaps of existing datasets. In this work, the results outcome from the project activities will be presented. The results include: the design and implementation of the prototype system; the development of a methodology for the estimation of the impact of climate variability, mainly due to aerosol, cloud and water vapor, on the solar irradiance using the integration of the observations potentially provided by prototype; the study of correlation between the surface radiation, precipitation and aerosols transport. In particular, a statistical study will be presented to assess the impact of the atmosphere on the solar irradiance at the ground, quantifying the contribution due to aerosol and

  16. PERSPECTIVE: On the verge of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kriegler, Elmar

    2007-03-01

    The recent publication of the summary for policy makers by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1] has injected a renewed sense of urgency to address climate change. It is therefore timely to review the notion of preventing 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' as put forward in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The article by Danny Harvey in this issue [2] offers a fresh perspective by rephrasing the concept of 'dangerous interference' as a problem of risk assessment. As Harvey points out, identification of 'dangerous interference' does not require us to know with certainty that future climate change will be dangerous—an impossible task given that our knowledge about future climate change includes uncertainty. Rather, it requires the assertion that interference would lead to a significant probability of dangerous climate change beyond some risk tolerance, and therefore would pose an unacceptable risk. In his article [2], Harvey puts this idea into operation by presenting a back-of-the-envelope calculation to identify allowable CO2 concentrations under uncertainty about climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing and the location of a temperature threshold beyond which dangerous climate change will occur. Conditional on his assumptions, Harvey delivers an interesting result. With the current atmospheric CO2 concentration exceeding 380 ppm, a forcing contribution from other greenhouse gases adding an approximate 100 110 ppm CO2 equivalent on top of it, and a global dimming effect of aerosols that roughly compensates for this contribution (albeit still subject to considerable uncertainty) ([1], figures SPM-1 and 2), we are on the verge of or even committed to dangerous interference with the climate system if we (1) set the risk tolerance for experiencing dangerous climate change to 1% and (2) allocate at least 5% probability to the belief that climate sensitivity is 4

  17. Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use Dynamics Using a Fully Coupled Hydrologic Feedback Model between Surface and Subsurface Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, C.; Lee, J.; Koo, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate is the most critical driving force of the hydrologic system of the Earth. Since the industrial revolution, the impacts of anthropogenic activities to the Earth environment have been expanded and accelerated. Especially, the global emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is known to have significantly increased temperature and affected the hydrologic system. Many hydrologists have contributed to the studies regarding the climate change on the hydrologic system since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created in 1988. Among many components in the hydrologic system groundwater and its response to the climate change and anthropogenic activities are not fully understood due to the complexity of subsurface conditions between the surface and the groundwater table. A new spatio-temporal hydrologic model has been developed to estimate the impacts of climate change and land use dynamics on the groundwater. The model consists of two sub-models: a surface model and a subsurface model. The surface model involves three surface processes: interception, runoff, and evapotranspiration, and the subsurface model does also three subsurface processes: soil moisture balance, recharge, and groundwater flow. The surface model requires various input data including land use, soil types, vegetation types, topographical elevations, and meteorological data. The surface model simulates daily hydrological processes for rainfall interception, surface runoff varied by land use change and crop growth, and evapotranspiration controlled by soil moisture balance. The daily soil moisture balance is a key element to link two sub-models as it calculates infiltration and groundwater recharge by considering a time delay routing through a vadose zone down to the groundwater table. MODFLOW is adopted to simulate groundwater flow and interaction with surface water components as well. The model is technically flexible to add new model or modify existing model as it is

  18. A comprehensive evaluation of high friction overlay systems on bridge decks in cold climate regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kostick, Robert D.

    In recent history the Minnesota Department of Transportation has looked to improve the safety of bridge decks by installing high friction overlays (HFO). A comprehensive study researched four different proprietary HFO systems placed on fourteen bridge decks throughout Minnesota. Research was split into three separate tasks: (1) laboratory testing of aggregate properties, (2) field observations and testing, and (3) a comprehensive analysis of crash data investigated crash rates on bridges with HFO systems. Field observations and testing revealed that the use of snowplows quickly abrades HFO systems. Abrasion, among other factors, causes a reduction in surface friction values, and reduces the life of HFO systems. Furthermore, improving crash rate trends cannot be directly correlated to the installation of HFO systems. Research concludes that HFO systems should not be used in Minnesota. Other cold climate transportation agencies should conduct research emulated after this study to assess HFO systems in their jurisdiction.

  19. Assessing indigenous knowledge systems and climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture: A case study of Chagaka Village, Chikhwawa, Southern Malawi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nkomwa, Emmanuel Charles; Joshua, Miriam Kalanda; Ngongondo, Cosmo; Monjerezi, Maurice; Chipungu, Felistus

    In Malawi, production from subsistence rain fed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. In response to the adverse effects of climate change and variability, a National Adaptation Programme of Action is used as framework for implementing adaptation programmes. However, this framework puts limited significance on indigenous knowledge systems (IKS). In many parts of the world, IKS have shown potential in the development of locally relevant and therefore sustainable adaptation strategies. This study was aimed at assessing the role of IKS in adaptation to climate change and variability in the agricultural sector in a rural district of Chikhwawa, southern Malawi. The study used both qualitative data from focus group and key informant interviews and quantitative data from household interviews and secondary data to address the research objectives. The study established that the local communities are able to recognise the changes in their climate and local environment. Commonly mentioned indicators of changing climatic patterns included delayed and unpredictable onset of rainfall, declining rainfall trends, warming temperatures and increased frequency of prolonged dry spells. An analysis of empirical data corroborates the people's perception. In addition, the community is able to use their IKS to adapt their agricultural systems to partially offset the effects of climate change. Like vulnerability to climate change, IKS varies over a short spatial scale, providing locally relevant adaptation to impacts of climate change. This paper therefore advocates for the integration of IKS in programmes addressing adaptation to climate change and vulnerability. This will serve to ensure sustainable and relevant adaptation strategies.

  20. The global distribution of mineral dust and its impacts on the climate system: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choobari, O. Alizadeh; Zawar-Reza, P.; Sturman, A.

    2014-03-01

    Mineral dust aerosols, the tiny soil particles suspended in the atmosphere, have a key role in the atmospheric radiation budget and hydrological cycle through their radiative and cloud condensation nucleus effects. Current understanding of spatial and temporal variations of mineral dust, as well as its impacts on the climate system and cloud properties is outlined. Mineral dust aerosols are blown into the atmosphere mainly from arid and semi-arid regions where annual rainfall is extremely low and substantial amounts of alluvial sediment have been accumulated over long periods. They are subject to long-range transport of an intercontinental scale, including North African dust plumes over the Atlantic Ocean, summer dust plumes from the Arabian Peninsula over the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean and spring dust plumes from East Asia over the Pacific Ocean. Mineral dust aerosols influence the climate system and cloud microphysics in multiple ways. They disturb the climate system directly by scattering and partly absorbing shortwave and longwave radiation, semi-directly by changing the atmospheric cloud cover through evaporation of cloud droplets (i.e. the cloud burning effect), and indirectly by acting as cloud and ice condensation nuclei, which changes the optical properties of clouds (i.e. the first indirect effect), and may decrease or increase precipitation formation (i.e. the second indirect effect). Radiative forcing by mineral dust is associated with changes in atmospheric dynamics that may change the vertical profile of temperature and wind speed, through which a feedback effect on dust emission can be established.

  1. Evaluating predictability in nonlinear climate systems using the Mount Pinatubo eruption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaddis, A. L.; Drake, J.; Evans, K. J.; Gentry, R. W.

    2011-12-01

    Volcanic eruptions serve as a benchmark for assessing aspects of predictability because they provide a sudden global impulse to the Earth's climate system. In particular, the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines is of interest since it was the largest aerosol perturbation to the stratosphere in the twentieth century and the most intensely observed eruption on record. Using instrumental measurements during the eruption, the predictive skill of climate models may be evaluated and information about the earth's climate sensitivity may be inferred. In this study, weather records from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis project and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40 Year Re-analysis (ERA-40) are compared to simulations from the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model, CESM1.0. For all data sets, monthly averages of 2m air temperature are evaluated for the years preceding and following the eruption. The time series of the temperature response for all data sets are plotted against aerosol optical depth. This method generates a trajectory in phase space that characterizes the evolution of the system under forcing. The temporal pattern of response to forcing for the model and reanalysis data is discussed qualitatively and quantified statistically.

  2. Observing Human-induced Linkages between Urbanization and Earth's Climate System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

    2004-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world s population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters atmospheric composition; impacts components of the water cycle; and modifies the carbon cycle and ecosystems. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. The goal of the 2003 AGU Union session Human-induced climate variations on urban areas: From observations to modeling was to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results on observing and modeling components of the urban environment with the intent of sampling our current stand and discussing future direction on this topic. Herein, a summary and discussion of the observations component of the session are presented.

  3. Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of Climatic Shifts on the Production and Processing of Native and Traditional Crops in the Bolivian Andes

    PubMed Central

    Keleman Saxena, Alder; Cadima Fuentes, Ximena; Gonzales Herbas, Rhimer; Humphries, Debbie L.

    2016-01-01

    Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data were collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes (a) the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia and (b) the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp.), oca (Oxalis tuberosa), tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis), papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus), and charke (llama or sheep jerky). Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, and the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Furthermore, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. Although these findings are drawn from a single case study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, “indigenous food systems.” Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate

  4. Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of Climatic Shifts on the Production and Processing of Native and Traditional Crops in the Bolivian Andes.

    PubMed

    Keleman Sa