Science.gov

Sample records for actual climate system

  1. What Actually Confers Adaptive Capacity? Insights from Agro-Climatic Vulnerability of Australian Wheat

    PubMed Central

    Bryan, Brett A.; Huai, Jianjun; Connor, Jeff; Gao, Lei; King, Darran; Kandulu, John; Zhao, Gang

    2015-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments have often invoked sustainable livelihoods theory to support the quantification of adaptive capacity based on the availability of capital—social, human, physical, natural, and financial. However, the assumption that increased availability of these capitals confers greater adaptive capacity remains largely untested. We quantified the relationship between commonly used capital indicators and an empirical index of adaptive capacity (ACI) in the context of vulnerability of Australian wheat production to climate variability and change. We calculated ACI by comparing actual yields from farm survey data to climate-driven expected yields estimated by a crop model for 12 regions in Australia’s wheat-sheep zone from 1991–2010. We then compiled data for 24 typical indicators used in vulnerability analyses, spanning the five capitals. We analyzed the ACI and used regression techniques to identify related capital indicators. Between regions, mean ACI was not significantly different but variance over time was. ACI was higher in dry years and lower in wet years suggesting that farm adaptive strategies are geared towards mitigating losses rather than capitalizing on opportunity. Only six of the 24 capital indicators were significantly related to adaptive capacity in a way predicted by theory. Another four indicators were significantly related to adaptive capacity but of the opposite sign, countering our theory-driven expectation. We conclude that the deductive, theory-based use of capitals to define adaptive capacity and vulnerability should be more circumspect. Assessments need to be more evidence-based, first testing the relevance and influence of capital metrics on adaptive capacity for the specific system of interest. This will more effectively direct policy and targeting of investment to mitigate agro-climatic vulnerability. PMID:25668192

  2. Climate system modeling program

    SciTech Connect

    1995-12-31

    The Climate System Modeling Project is a component activity of NSF's Climate Modeling, Analysis and Prediction Program, supported by the Atmospheric Sciences Program, Geosciences Directorate. Its objective is to accelerate progress toward reliable prediction of global and regional climate changes in the decades ahead. CSMP operates through workshops, support for post-docs and graduate students and other collaborative activities designed to promote interdisciplinary and strategic work in support of the overall objective (above) and specifically in three areas, (1) Causes of interdecadal variability in the climate system, (2) Interactions of regional climate forcing with global processes, and (3) Scientific needs of climate assessment.

  3. Assessing Climate Information Use in Agribusiness. Part I: Actual and Potential Use and Impediments to Usage.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Changnon, Stanley A.; Sonka, Steven T.; Hofing, Steven

    1988-08-01

    A project for the development of methodology to enable agribusiness decision makers to utilize more effectively climate information involved investigation of three agribusiness firms, as well as measurement of their actual and potential use. The firms investigated included a food processing firm, a seed corn producing company, and an agri-chemical producing firm. Climate information is currently being used to some extent by each firm. This information, generally historical in nature, is often collected by the firms. Corporate officials make many decisions using data on conditions influenced by past climatic events, e.g., averages of past yields, but the role of climate information is not explicitly identified. The decision makers interviewed expressed considerable interest in making fuller use of this information. However, they considered climate predictions and year-to-date assessments of conditions as having potentially greater. value than historical data, although these two desired data type currently were not being used to any great extent. Lack of procedures to integrate climate information within the decision processes of these large, complex firms was a major impediment to greater utilization of climate information. A scarcity of information about climate data was another major impediment.

  4. Pilot climate data system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    A usable data base, the Pilot climate Data System (PCDS) is described. The PCDS is designed to be an interactive, easy-to-use, on-line generalized scientific information system. It efficiently provides uniform data catalogs; inventories, and access method, as well as manipulation and display tools for a large assortment of Earth, ocean and atmospheric data for the climate-related research community. Researchers can employ the PCDS to scan, manipulate, compare, display, and study climate parameters from diverse data sets. Software features, and applications of the PCDS are highlighted.

  5. Defining climate modeling user needs: which data are actually required to support impact analysis and adaptation policy development?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swart, R. J.; Pagé, C.

    2010-12-01

    Until recently, the policy applications of Earth System Models in general and climate models in particular were focusing mainly on the potential future changes in the global and regional climate and attribution of observed changes to anthropogenic activities. Is climate change real? And if so, why do we have to worry about it? Following the broad acceptance of the reality of the risks by the majority of governments, particularly after the publication of IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report and the increasing number of observations of changes in ecological and socio-economic systems that are consistent with the observed climatic changes, governments, companies and other societal groups have started to evaluate their own vulnerability in more detail and to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies. After an early focus on the most vulnerable developing countries, recently, an increasing number of industrialized countries have embarked on the design of adaptation and mitigation plans, or on studies to evaluate the level of climate resilience of their development plans and projects. Which climate data are actually required to effectively support these activities? This paper reports on the efforts of the IS-ENES project, the infrastructure project of the European Network for Earth System Modeling, to address this question. How do we define user needs and can the existing gap between the climate modeling and impact research communities be bridged in support of the ENES long-term strategy? In contrast from the climate modeling community, which has a relatively long history of collaboration facilitated by a relatively uniform subject matter, commonly agreed definitions of key terminology and some level of harmonization of methods, the climate change impacts research community is very diverse and fragmented, using a wide variety of data sources, methods and tools. An additional complicating factor is that researchers working on adaptation usually closely collaborate with non

  6. Power Delivery from an Actual Thermoelectric Generation System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaibe, Hiromasa; Kajihara, Takeshi; Nagano, Kouji; Makino, Kazuya; Hachiuma, Hirokuni; Natsuume, Daisuke

    2014-06-01

    Similar to photovoltaic (PV) and fuel cells, thermoelectric generators (TEGs) supply direct-current (DC) power, essentially requiring DC/alternating current (AC) conversion for delivery as electricity into the grid network. Use of PVs is already well established through power conditioning systems (PCSs) that enable DC/AC conversion with maximum-power-point tracking, which enables commercial use by customers. From the economic, legal, and regulatory perspectives, a commercial PCS for PVs should also be available for TEGs, preferably as is or with just simple adjustment. Herein, we report use of a PV PCS with an actual TEG. The results are analyzed, and proper application for TEGs is proposed.

  7. Climate data management system

    SciTech Connect

    Drach, R

    1999-07-13

    The Climate Data Management System is an object-oriented data management system, specialized for organizing multidimensional, gridded data used in climate analysis and simulation. The building blocks of CDMS are variables, container classes, structural classes, and links. All gridded data stored in CDMS is associated with variables. The container objects group variables and structural objects. Variables are defined in terms of structural objects. Most CDMS objects can have attributes, which are scalar or one-dimensional metadata items. Attributes which are stored in the database, that is are persistent, are called external attributes. Some attributes are internal; they are associated with an object but do not appear explicitly in the database.

  8. Tutorial on Actual Space Environmental Hazards For Space Systems (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazur, J. E.; Fennell, J. F.; Guild, T. B.; O'Brien, T. P.

    2013-12-01

    It has become common in the space science community to conduct research on diverse physical phenomena because they are thought to contribute to space weather. However, satellites contend with only three primary environmental hazards: single event effects, vehicle charging, and total dose, and not every physical phenomenon that occurs in space contributes in substantial ways to create these hazards. One consequence of the mismatch between actual threats and all-encompassing research is the often-described gap between research and operations; another is the creation of forecasts that provide no actionable information for design engineers or spacecraft operators. An example of the latter is the physics of magnetic field emergence on the Sun; the phenomenon is relevant to the formation and launch of coronal mass ejections and is also causally related to the solar energetic particles that may get accelerated in the interplanetary shock. Unfortunately for the research community, the engineering community mitigates the space weather threat (single-event effects from heavy ions above ~50 MeV/nucleon) with a worst-case specification of the environment and not with a prediction. Worst-case definition requires data mining of past events, while predictions involve large-scale systems science from the Sun to the Earth that is compelling for scientists and their funding agencies but not actionable for design or for most operations. Differing priorities among different space-faring organizations only compounds the confusion over what science research is relevant. Solar particle impacts to human crew arise mainly from the total ionizing dose from the solar protons, so the priority for prediction in the human spaceflight community is therefore much different than in the unmanned satellite community, while both communities refer to the fundamental phenomenon as space weather. Our goal in this paper is the presentation of a brief tutorial on the primary space environmental phenomena

  9. Perceived and Actual Motivational Climate of a Mastery-Involving Sport Education Season

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hastie, Peter; Sinelnikov, Oleg; Wallhead, Tristan; Layne, Todd

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to implement a Sport Education season designed to be mastery-involving and examine the degree of congruence between the objective measure of the presented climate with the students' perceptions of the saliency of this motivational climate. Twenty-one male high school students (mean age of 15.9 years) and one expert…

  10. Actual evapotranspiration for a reference crop within measured and future changing climate periods in the Mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Katerji, Nader; Rana, Gianfranco; Ferrara, Rossana Monica

    2016-05-01

    The study compares two formulas for calculating the daily evapotranspiration ET0 for a reference crop. The first formula was proposed by Allen et al. (AL), while the second one was proposed by Katerji and Perrier with the addition of the carbon dioxide (CO2) effect on evapotranspiration (KP). The study analyses the impact of the calculation by the two formulas on the irrigation requirement (IR). Both formulas are based on the Penman-Monteith equation but adopt different approaches for parameterising the canopy resistance r c . In the AL formula, r c is assumed constant and not sensitive to climate change, whereas in the KP formula, r c is first parameterised as a function of climatic variables, then ET0 is corrected for the air CO2 concentration. The two formulas were compared in two periods. The first period involves data from two sites in the Mediterranean region within a measured climate change period (1981-2006) when all the input climatic variables were measured. The second period (2070-2100) involves data from a future climate change period at one site when the input climatic variables were forecasted for two future climate scenarios (A2 and B2). The annual cumulated values of ET0 calculated by the AL formula are systematically lower than those determined by the KP formula. The differences between the ET0 estimation with the AL and KP formulas have a strong impact on the determination of the IR for the reference crop. In fact, for the two periods, the annual values of IR when ET0 is calculated by the AL formula are systematically lower than those calculated by the KP formula. For the actual measured climate change period, this reduction varied from 26 to 28 %, while for the future climate change period, it varied based on the scenario from 16 % (A2) to 20 % (B2).

  11. Arctic Climate Systems Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Ivey, Mark D.; Robinson, David G.; Boslough, Mark B.; Backus, George A.; Peterson, Kara J.; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart G.; Swiler, Laura Painton; Desilets, Darin Maurice; Reinert, Rhonda Karen

    2015-03-01

    This study began with a challenge from program area managers at Sandia National Laboratories to technical staff in the energy, climate, and infrastructure security areas: apply a systems-level perspective to existing science and technology program areas in order to determine technology gaps, identify new technical capabilities at Sandia that could be applied to these areas, and identify opportunities for innovation. The Arctic was selected as one of these areas for systems level analyses, and this report documents the results. In this study, an emphasis was placed on the arctic atmosphere since Sandia has been active in atmospheric research in the Arctic since 1997. This study begins with a discussion of the challenges and benefits of analyzing the Arctic as a system. It goes on to discuss current and future needs of the defense, scientific, energy, and intelligence communities for more comprehensive data products related to the Arctic; assess the current state of atmospheric measurement resources available for the Arctic; and explain how the capabilities at Sandia National Laboratories can be used to address the identified technological, data, and modeling needs of the defense, scientific, energy, and intelligence communities for Arctic support.

  12. Virtual vision system with actual flavor by olfactory display

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakamoto, Kunio; Kanazawa, Fumihiro

    2010-11-01

    The authors have researched multimedia system and support system for nursing studies on and practices of reminiscence therapy and life review therapy. The concept of the life review is presented by Butler in 1963. The process of thinking back on one's life and communicating about one's life to another person is called life review. There is a famous episode concerning the memory. It is called as Proustian effects. This effect is mentioned on the Proust's novel as an episode that a story teller reminds his old memory when he dipped a madeleine in tea. So many scientists research why smells trigger the memory. The authors pay attention to the relation between smells and memory although the reason is not evident yet. Then we have tried to add an olfactory display to the multimedia system so that the smells become a trigger of reminding buried memories. An olfactory display is a device that delivers smells to the nose. It provides us with special effects, for example to emit smell as if you were there or to give a trigger for reminding us of memories. The authors have developed a tabletop display system connected with the olfactory display. For delivering a flavor to user's nose, the system needs to recognition and measure positions of user's face and nose. In this paper, the authors describe an olfactory display which enables to detect the nose position for an effective delivery.

  13. Actualizing sustainability: environmental policy for resilience in ecological systems

    EPA Science Inventory

    Society benefits from ecological systems in many ways. These benefits are often referred to as ecosystem services (MA 2005). Because these services matter to humans, they are critical to sustainability. Sustainability has many definitions, but for this chapter, we link our defi...

  14. Climate data system supports FIRE

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Olsen, Lola M.; Iascone, Dominick; Reph, Mary G.

    1990-01-01

    The NASA Climate Data System (NCDS) at Goddard Space Flight Center is serving as the FIRE Central Archive, providing a centralized data holding and data cataloging service for the FIRE project. NCDS members are carrying out their responsibilities by holding all reduced observations and data analysis products submitted by individual principal investigators in the agreed upon format, by holding all satellite data sets required for FIRE, by providing copies of any of these data sets to FIRE investigators, and by producing and updating a catalog with information about the FIRE holdings. FIRE researchers were requested to provide their reduced data sets in the Standard Data Format (SDF) to the FIRE Central Archive. This standard format is proving to be of value. An improved SDF document is now available. The document provides an example from an actual FIRE SDF data set and clearly states the guidelines for formatting data in SDF. NCDS has received SDF tapes from a number of investigators. These tapes were analyzed and comments provided to the producers. One product which is now available is William J. Syrett's sodar data product from the Stratocumulus Intensive Field Observation. Sample plots from all SDF tapes submitted to the archive will be available to FSET members. Related cloud products are also available through NCDS. Entries describing the FIRE data sets are being provided for the NCDS on-line catalog. Detailed information for the Extended Time Observations is available in the general FIRE catalog entry. Separate catalog entries are being written for the Cirrus Intensive Field Observation (IFO) and for the Marine Stratocumulus IFO. Short descriptions of each FIRE data set will be installed into the NCDS Summary Catalog.

  15. Climate Observing Systems: Data System Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karl, T. R.

    2001-12-01

    Existing observing and data systems have provided considerable information about past climate variations and changes. The recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Research Council, and the USGCRP National Assessment of Climate Variability and Change are testaments to a vast array of knowledge. These reports also expose some serious deficiencies in our ability to discern past climate variations and change which lead to substantial uncertainties in key climate state, climate feedback, and climate forcing variables. How significant are these uncertainties? For climate trends that have our highest confidence, like the change in mean global surface temperature, the 95 percent confidence intervals amount to about two-thirds of the calculated change. With such large uncertainties it is exceedingly difficult to discern accelerated changes. For other variables, especially variables related to climate feedbacks and forcings (with exceptions for long-lived and well-mixed greenhouse gases like CO2 or CH4) or climate and weather extremes, we often have little or no information to discern trends or cannot objectively assess confidence intervals. Do we know how to reduce existing uncertainties? First and foremost, a climate observation oversight and monitoring capability is needed that tracks the gathering of the data, the processing system, and the performance of the observations, especially time-dependent biases. An organized capability does not now exist, but could be developed at a new and/or existing centers. This center(s) should then have the means and influence to fix problems and be able to establish requirements for new in-situ and satellite observing including related data systems. Such a capability should complement the following: (1) Climate observations from both space-based and in-situ platforms that are taken in ways that address climate needs and adhere to the ten principles outlined by the NRC (1999 Adequacy of Climate

  16. Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

  17. Soil water availability as controlling factor for actual evapotranspiration in urban soil-vegetation-systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomsen, Simon; Reisdorff, Christoph; Gröngröft, Alexander; Jensen, Kai; Eschenbach, Annette

    2015-04-01

    The City of Hamburg is characterized by a large number of greens, parks and roadside trees: 600.000 trees cover about 14% of the city area, and moreover, 245.000 roadside trees can be found here. Urban vegetation is generally known to positively contribute to the urban micro-climate via cooling by evapotranspiration (ET). The water for ET is predominantly stored in the urban soils. Hence, the actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is - beside atmospheric drivers - determined by soil water availability at the soil surface and in the rooting zones of the respective vegetation. The overall aim of this study is to characterize soil water availability as a regulative factor for ETa in urban soil-vegetation systems. The specific questions addressed are: i) What is the spatio-temporal variation in soil water availability at the study sites? ii) Which soil depths are predominantly used for water uptake by the vegetation forms investigated? and iii) Which are the threshold values of soil water tension and soil water content (Θ), respectively, that limit ETa under dry conditions on both grass-dominated and tree-dominated sites? Three study areas were established in the urban region of Hamburg, Germany. We selected areas featuring both single tree stands and grass-dominated sites, both representing typical vegetation forms in Hamburg. The areas are characterized by relatively dry soil conditions. However, they differ in regard to soil water availability. At each area we selected one site dominated by Common Oak (Quercus ruber L.) with ages from 40 to 120 years, and paired each oak tree site with a neighboring grass-dominated site. All field measurements were performed during the years 2013 and 2014. At each site, we continuously measured soil water tension and Θ up to 160 cm depth, and xylem sap flux of each of three oak trees per site in a 15 min-resolution. Furthermore, we measured soil hydraulic properties as pF-curve, saturated and unsaturated conductivity at all sites

  18. A Prototype Climate Information System

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1993-01-01

    Access to the NCDS could also support some of the operational needs of naval bases, such as NEOC. 2. CLICOM CLICOM is a climatic data processing system...developed by the NCDC under a WMO contract (McGuirk and Llanso, 1989). CLICOM is designed primarily for use in developing countries, by personnel with...little technical training. CLICOM currently is used in 37 countries, including 35 sites in the USA. CLICOM software runs on an IBM PC and manuals

  19. Agro-climatic adaptation of cropping systems under climate change in Shanghai

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Zhuoran; Gu, Tingting; Tian, Zhan; Zhong, Honglin; Liang, Yuqi

    2015-09-01

    Climate change affects the heat and water resources required by agriculture, thus shifting cropping rotation and intensity. Shanghai is located in the Taihu Lake basin, a transition zone for various cropping systems. In the basin, moderate climate changes can cause major shifts in cropping intensity and rotation. In the present study, we integrated observational climate data, one regional climate model, land use maps, and agricultural statistics to analyze the relationship between heat resources and multi-cropping potential in Shanghai. The results of agro-climatic assessment showed that climate change over the past 50 years has significantly enhanced regional agroclimatic resources, rendering a shift from double cropping to triple cropping possible. However, a downward trend is evident in the actual multi-cropping index, caused principally by the increasing costs of farming and limitations in the supply of labor. We argue that improving the utilization rate of the enhanced agro-climatic resources is possible by introducing new combinations of cultivars, adopting more laborsaving technologies, and providing incentives to farmers.

  20. The Ancient Martian Climate System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haberle, Robert M.

    2014-01-01

    Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. The atmosphere is thin and liquid water is not stable. But there is evidence that very early in its history it was warmer and wetter. Since Mariner 9 first detected fluvial features on its ancient terrains researchers have been trying to understand what climatic conditions could have permitted liquid water to flow on the surface. Though the evidence is compelling, the problem is not yet solved. The main issue is coping with the faint young sun. During the period when warmer conditions prevailed 3.5-3.8 Gy the sun's luminosity was approximately 25% less than it is today. How can we explain the presence of liquid water on the surface of Mars under such conditions? A similar problem exists for Earth, which would have frozen over under a faint sun even though the evidence suggests otherwise. Attempts to solve the "Faint Young Sun Paradox" rely on greenhouse warming from an atmosphere with a different mass and composition than we see today. This is true for both Mars and Earth. However, it is not a straightforward solution. Any greenhouse theory must (a) produce the warming and rainfall needed, (b) have a plausible source for the gases required, (c) be sustainable, and (d) explain how the atmosphere evolved to its present state. These are challenging requirements and judging from the literature they have yet to be met. In this talk I will review the large and growing body of work on the early Mars climate system. I will take a holistic approach that involves many disciplines since our goal is to present an integrated view that touches on each of the requirements listed in the preceding paragraph. I will begin with the observational evidence, which comes from the geology, mineralogy, and isotopic data. Each of the data sets presents a consistent picture of a warmer and wetter past with a thicker atmosphere. How much warmer and wetter and how much thicker is a matter of debate, but conditions then were certainly different than

  1. Weather Climate Interactions and Extreme Events in the Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roundy, P. E.

    2015-12-01

    The most pronounced local impacts of climate change would occur in association with extreme weather events superimposed on the altered climate. Thus a major thrust of recent efforts in the climate community has been to assess how extreme regional events such as cold air outbreaks, heat waves, tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, and severe weather might change with the climate. Many of these types of events are poorly simulated in climate models because of insufficient spatial resolution and insufficient quality parameterization of sub grid scale convection and radiation processes. This talk summarizes examples selected from those discussed below of how weather and climate events can be interconnected so that the physics of natural climate and weather phenomena depend on each other, thereby complicating our ability to simulate extreme events. A major focus of the chapter is on the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO), which is associated with alternating eastward-moving planetary scale regions of enhanced and suppressed moist deep convection favoring warm pool regions in the tropics. The MJO modulates weather events around the world and influences the evolution of interannual climate variability. We first discuss how the MJO evolves together with the seasonal cycle, the El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO), and the extratropical circulation, then continue with a case study illustration of how El Niño is intrinsically coupled to intraseasonal and synoptic weather events such as the MJO and westerly wind bursts. This interconnectedness in the system implies that modeling many types of regional extreme weather events requires more than simply downscaling coarse climate model signals to nested regional models because extreme outcomes in a region can depend on poorly simulated extreme weather in distant parts of the world. The authors hope that an improved understanding of these types of interactions between signals across scales of time and space will ultimately yield

  2. Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory

  3. Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4

    SciTech Connect

    Bitz, Cecilia M.; Shell, K. M.; Gent, P. R.; Bailey, D. A.; Danabasoglu, G.; Armour, K. C.; Holland, M. M.; Kiehl, J. T.

    2012-05-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.20°C for 1° horizontal resolution in each component. This is about a half degree Celsius higher than in the previous version (CCSM3). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 1° resolution is 1.72°C, which is about 0.2°C higher than in CCSM3. These higher climate sensitivities in CCSM4 cannot be explained by the change to a preindustrial baseline climate. We use the radiative kernel technique to show that from CCSM3 to CCSM4, the global mean lapse-rate feedback declines in magnitude, and the shortwave cloud feedback increases. These two warming effects are partially canceled by cooling due to slight decreases in the global mean water-vapor feedback and longwave cloud feedback from CCSM3 to CCSM4. A new formulation of the mixed-layer, slab ocean model in CCSM4 attempts to reproduce the SST and sea ice climatology from an integration with a full-depth ocean, and it is integrated with a dynamic sea ice model. These new features allow an isolation of the influence of ocean dynamical changes on the climate response when comparing integrations with the slab ocean and full-depth ocean. The transient climate response of the full-depth ocean version is 0.54 of the equilibrium climate sensitivity when estimated with the new slab ocean model version for both CCSM3 and CCSM4. We argue the ratio is the same in both versions because they have about the same zonal mean pattern of change in ocean surface heat flux, which broadly resembles the zonal mean pattern of net feedback strength.

  4. Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4

    DOE PAGES

    Bitz, Cecilia M.; Shell, K. M.; Gent, P. R.; ...

    2012-05-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.20°C for 1° horizontal resolution in each component. This is about a half degree Celsius higher than in the previous version (CCSM3). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 1° resolution is 1.72°C, which is about 0.2°C higher than in CCSM3. These higher climate sensitivities in CCSM4 cannot be explained by the change to a preindustrial baseline climate. We use the radiative kernel technique to show that from CCSM3 to CCSM4, the global mean lapse-rate feedback declines in magnitude, and the shortwave cloud feedback increases. These twomore » warming effects are partially canceled by cooling due to slight decreases in the global mean water-vapor feedback and longwave cloud feedback from CCSM3 to CCSM4. A new formulation of the mixed-layer, slab ocean model in CCSM4 attempts to reproduce the SST and sea ice climatology from an integration with a full-depth ocean, and it is integrated with a dynamic sea ice model. These new features allow an isolation of the influence of ocean dynamical changes on the climate response when comparing integrations with the slab ocean and full-depth ocean. The transient climate response of the full-depth ocean version is 0.54 of the equilibrium climate sensitivity when estimated with the new slab ocean model version for both CCSM3 and CCSM4. We argue the ratio is the same in both versions because they have about the same zonal mean pattern of change in ocean surface heat flux, which broadly resembles the zonal mean pattern of net feedback strength.« less

  5. How secure is your information system? An investigation into actual healthcare worker password practices.

    PubMed

    Cazier, Joseph A; Medlin, B Dawn

    2006-09-27

    For most healthcare information systems, passwords are the first line of defense in keeping patient and administrative records private and secure. However, this defense is only as strong as the passwords employees chose to use. A weak or easily guessed password is like an open door to the medical records room, allowing unauthorized access to sensitive information. In this paper, we present the results of a study of actual healthcare workers' password practices. In general, the vast majority of these passwords have significant security problems on several dimensions. Implications for healthcare professionals are discussed.

  6. How Secure Is Your Information System? An Investigation into Actual Healthcare Worker Password Practices

    PubMed Central

    Cazier, Joseph A; Medlin, B. Dawn

    2006-01-01

    For most healthcare information systems, passwords are the first line of defense in keeping patient and administrative records private and secure. However, this defense is only as strong as the passwords employees chose to use. A weak or easily guessed password is like an open door to the medical records room, allowing unauthorized access to sensitive information. In this paper, we present the results of a study of actual healthcare workers' password practices. In general, the vast majority of these passwords have significant security problems on several dimensions. Implications for healthcare professionals are discussed. PMID:18066366

  7. The primary test of measuremental system for the actual emittance of relativistic electron beams

    SciTech Connect

    Liang Fu; Tai-bin Du; Xin Chen

    1995-12-31

    Recent, a new measuremental system has been established basically in Tsinghua University PRA. This system is able to measure the lower emittance of the electron beams from the RF accelerators for the FEL. It consists of a scanning magnetic field, a slit, a fluorescent screen, and a TV camera, an image processing system, a CAD 386 computer. Using it an actual phase diagram is obtained for 4-10 Mev electron beams, The principle and structure of the facility were reported in the Proceeding of the 15th FEL Conference. This paper describes the performance of the main components and the results of first measurement for the electron gun and 4Mev standing wave LINAC, Some new suggests are related too.

  8. Thermal Protection System Cavity Heating for Simplified and Actual Geometries Using Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations with Unstructured Grids

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McCloud, Peter L.

    2010-01-01

    Thermal Protection System (TPS) Cavity Heating is predicted using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) on unstructured grids for both simplified cavities and actual cavity geometries. Validation was performed using comparisons to wind tunnel experimental results and CFD predictions using structured grids. Full-scale predictions were made for simplified and actual geometry configurations on the Space Shuttle Orbiter in a mission support timeframe.

  9. Climate change: Cropping system changes and adaptations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change impacts the life of every person; however, there is little comprehensive understanding of the direct and indirect effects of climate change on agriculture. Since our food, feed, fiber, and fruit is derived from agricultural systems, understanding the effects of changing temperature, p...

  10. Prototype Expert System for Climate Classification.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harris, Clay

    Many students find climate classification laborious and time-consuming, and through their lack of repetition fail to grasp the details of classification. This paper describes an expert system for climate classification that is being developed at Middle Tennessee State University. Topics include: (1) an introduction to the nature of classification,…

  11. Management system, organizational climate and performance relationships

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davis, B. D.

    1979-01-01

    Seven aerospace firms were investigated to determine if a relationship existed among management systems, organizational climate, and organization performance. Positive relationships were found between each of these variables, but a statistically significant relationship existed only between the management system and organizational climate. The direction and amount of communication and the degree of decentralized decision-making, elements of the management system, also had a statistically significant realtionship with organization performance.

  12. The Global Climate Observing System. French contribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Juvanon-Du-Vachat, R.

    2010-09-01

    THE GLOBAL CLIMATE OBSERVING SYSTEM. FRENCH CONTRIBUTION Régis Juvanon du Vachat Société Météorologique de France, c/o D2I/MI, 1, Quai Branly 75007 Paris France is participating fully in the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). It incorporates the following four components: meteorological and atmospheric, oceanic, terrestrial, spatial, which will be briefly presented, especially in relation with the monitoring of the climate. The presentation will give an overview of the general principles governing the GCOS system and particularly the concepts used to maintain efficiently this climate observing system for a long period of time ("from research networks to operational networks"). The presentation will cover all the four components of the GCOS system. The whole report has been published in the Fifth National Communication from France to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). The presentation will give an overview of the different networks of these four domains devoted to the monitoring of climate and maintained by France and highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of this climate observing system.

  13. Assessment of RCM output from the ENSEMBLES RT3 project in AMMA-region: focus on Senegal actual climate reproduction and effects on simulated crop yields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oettli, Pascal; Sultan, Benjamin; Baron, Christian; Vrac, Mathieu

    2010-05-01

    In West-Africa countries, most economies and people depend on rainfed agriculture. In this area, rainfall is highly variable and, from the period 1931-1960 to 1968-1990, the annual rainfall has decreased 15 to 40%. Since the mid 1990's, an increase in rainfall is detected, but only to reach the level of 1970's rainfall. The aim of this study is to determine if large-scale fields, interpolated at local-scale are able (i) to reproduce observed climate at station and (ii) to simulate observed crop yields. Another objective of this study is to see if a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling methods is useful to correct biases due to scale change. For that, we use data from some synoptic stations in Senegal and simulated data provided by the European project ENSEMBLES. Among research themes (RT) of this project, one (RT3) had the responsibility for providing improved climate model tools developed in the context of regional climate models (RCMs), at spatial scales of 50km at AMMA-region. RT3 provides 15-year experiments over West Africa driven by the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis of the ECMWF. A statistical method (CDF-transform), developed to generate local cumulative distribution functions of surface climate variables from large-scale fields is used to correct biases in RCM output, due to large-scale information basically interpolated at local-scale. In the present study, a deterministic crop model, SARRA-H, is used to simulate sorghum yields for the actual period, at local scale. This crop model simulates yield attainable under water-limited conditions by simulating the soil water balance, potential and actual evapotranspiration, phenology, potential and water-limited carbon assimilation, and biomass partitioning. SARRA-H model is driven by 4 meteorological datasets, at synoptic station scale: - observations, - ERA-INTERIM, - original RCM output, - corrected RCM output.

  14. Bioaerosols in the Earth system: Climate, health, and ecosystem interactions

    SciTech Connect

    Fröhlich-Nowoisky, Janine; Kampf, Christopher J.; Weber, Bettina; Huffman, J. Alex; Pöhlker, Christopher; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Lang-Yona, Naama; Burrows, Susannah M.; Gunthe, Sachin S.; Elbert, Wolfgang; Su, Hang; Hoor, Peter; Thines, Eckhard; Hoffmann, Thorsten; Després, Viviane R.; Pöschl, Ulrich

    2016-12-01

    Aerosols of biological origin play a vital role in the Earth system, particularly in the in-teractions between atmosphere, biosphere, climate, and public health. Airborne bacteria, fungal spores, pollen, and other bioparticles are essential for the reproduction and spread of organisms across various ecosystems, and they can cause or enhance human, animal, and plant diseases. Moreover, they can serve as nuclei for cloud droplets, ice crystals, and precipitation, thus influencing the hydrological cycle and climate. The actual formation, abundance, composition, and effects of biological aerosols and the atmospheric microbi-ome are, however, not yet well characterized and constitute a large gap in the scientific understanding of the interaction and co-evolution of life and climate in the Earth system. This review presents an overview of the state of bioaerosol research and highlights recent advances in terms of bioaerosol identification, characterization, transport, and transfor-mation processes, as well as their interactions with climate, health, and ecosystems, focus-ing on the role bioaerosols play in the Earth system.

  15. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Kubar, T. L.; Li, J.; Zhang, J.; Wang, W.

    2015-12-01

    Both the National Research Council Decadal Survey and the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with the synergistic use of global satellite observations in order to improve our weather and climate simulation and prediction capabilities. The abundance of satellite observations for fundamental climate parameters and the availability of coordinated model outputs from CMIP5 for the same parameters offer a great opportunity to understand and diagnose model biases in climate models. In addition, the Obs4MIPs efforts have created several key global observational datasets that are readily usable for model evaluations. However, a model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. In response, we have developed a novel methodology to diagnose model biases in contemporary climate models and implementing the methodology as a web-service based, cloud-enabled, provenance-supported climate-model evaluation system. The evaluation system is named Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), which is the product of the research and technology development investments of several current and past NASA ROSES programs. The current technologies and infrastructure of CMDA are designed and selected to address several technical challenges that the Earth science modeling and model analysis community faces in evaluating and diagnosing climate models. In particular, we have three key technology components: (1) diagnostic analysis methodology; (2) web-service based, cloud-enabled technology; (3) provenance-supported technology. The diagnostic analysis methodology includes random forest feature importance ranking, conditional probability distribution function, conditional sampling, and time-lagged correlation map. We have implemented the

  16. An early warning system for high climate sensitivity? (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pierrehumbert, R.

    2010-12-01

    The scientific case for the clear and present danger of global warming has been unassailable at least since the release of the Charney Report more than thirty years ago, if not longer. While prompt action to begin decarbonizing energy systems could still head off much of the potential warming, it is distinctly possible that emissions will continue unabated in the coming decades, leading to a doubling or more of pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentrations. At present, we are in the unenviable position of not even knowing how bad things will get if this scenario comes to pass, because of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. If climate sensitivity is high, then the consequences will be dire, perhaps even catastrophic. As the world continues to warm in response to continued carbon dioxide emissions, will we at least be able to monitor the climate and provide an early warning that the planet is on a high-sensitivity track, if such turns out to be the case? At what point will we actually know the climate sensitivity? It has long been recognized that the prime contributor to uncertainty in climate sensitivity is uncertainty in cloud feedbacks. Study of paleoclimate and climate of the past century has not been able to resolve which models do cloud feedback most correctly, because of uncertainties in radiative forcing. In this talk, I will discuss monitoring requirements, and analysis techniques, that might have the potential to determine which climate models most faithfully represent climate feedbacks, and thus determine which models provide the best estimate of climate sensitivity. The endeavor is complicated by the distinction between transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity. I will discuss the particular challenges posed by this issue, particularly in light of recent indications that the pattern of ocean heat storage may lead to different cloud feedbacks in the transient warming stage than apply once the system has reached equilibrium. Apart

  17. Climate change impacts on food system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

    2014-12-01

    Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

  18. The Community Climate System Model: CCSM3

    SciTech Connect

    Collins, W D; Blackmon, M; Bitz, C; Bonan, G; Bretherton, C S; Carton, J A; Chang, P; Doney, S; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Henderson, T; Large, W G; McKenna, D; Santer, B D; Smith, R D

    2004-12-27

    A new version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) has been developed and released to the climate community. CCSM3 is a coupled climate model with components representing the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface connected by a flux coupler. CCSM3 is designed to produce realistic simulations over a wide range of spatial resolutions, enabling inexpensive simulations lasting several millennia or detailed studies of continental-scale climate change. This paper will show results from the configuration used for climate-change simulations with a T85 grid for atmosphere and land and a 1-degree grid for ocean and sea-ice. The new system incorporates several significant improvements in the scientific formulation. The enhancements in the model physics are designed to reduce or eliminate several systematic biases in the mean climate produced by previous editions of CCSM. These include new treatments of cloud processes, aerosol radiative forcing, land-atmosphere fluxes, ocean mixed-layer processes, and sea-ice dynamics. There are significant improvements in the sea-ice thickness, polar radiation budgets, equatorial sea-surface temperatures, ocean currents, cloud radiative effects, and ENSO teleconnections. CCSM3 can produce stable climate simulations of millenial duration without ad hoc adjustments to the fluxes exchanged among the component models. Nonetheless, there are still systematic biases in the ocean-atmosphere fluxes in western coastal regions, the spectrum of ENSO variability, the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and the continental precipitation and surface air temperatures. We conclude with the prospects for extending CCSM to a more comprehensive model of the Earth's climate system.

  19. [Cooperation with the electronic medical record and accounting system of an actual dose of drug given by a radiology information system].

    PubMed

    Yamamoto, Hideo; Yoneda, Tarou; Satou, Shuji; Ishikawa, Toru; Hara, Misako

    2009-12-20

    By input of the actual dose of a drug given into a radiology information system, the system converting with an accounting system into a cost of the drug from the actual dose in the electronic medical record was built. In the drug master, the first unit was set as the cost of the drug, and we set the second unit as the actual dose. The second unit in the radiology information system was received by the accounting system through electronic medical record. In the accounting system, the actual dose was changed into the cost of the drug using the dose of conversion to the first unit. The actual dose was recorded on a radiology information system and electronic medical record. The actual dose was indicated on the accounting system, and the cost for the drug was calculated. About the actual dose of drug, cooperation of the information in a radiology information system and electronic medical record were completed. It was possible to decide the volume of drug from the correct dose of drug at the previous inspection. If it is necessary for the patient to have another treatment of medicine, it is important to know the actual dose of drug given. Moreover, authenticity of electronic medical record based on a statute has also improved.

  20. Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions

    PubMed Central

    Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Obersteiner, Michael; Schmid, Erwin; Rufino, Mariana C.; Mosnier, Aline; Thornton, Philip K.; Böttcher, Hannes; Conant, Richard T.; Frank, Stefan; Fritz, Steffen; Fuss, Sabine; Kraxner, Florian; Notenbaert, An

    2014-01-01

    Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO2e⋅y−1), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions from both the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO2e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO2e⋅y−1. Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra- and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO2e⋅y−1 could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient—measured in “total abatement calorie cost”—than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes. PMID:24567375

  1. Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions.

    PubMed

    Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Obersteiner, Michael; Schmid, Erwin; Rufino, Mariana C; Mosnier, Aline; Thornton, Philip K; Böttcher, Hannes; Conant, Richard T; Frank, Stefan; Fritz, Steffen; Fuss, Sabine; Kraxner, Florian; Notenbaert, An

    2014-03-11

    Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO2e⋅y(-1)), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions from both the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO2e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO2e⋅y(-1). Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra- and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO2e⋅y(-1) could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient--measured in "total abatement calorie cost"--than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes.

  2. The climate system as a ticking clock

    SciTech Connect

    Kerr, R.A.

    1990-09-14

    Climate researchers are picking up a more or less regular 2-year beat to the global climate system - one that seems to be heard from every quarter. The most recently discovered example of this climatic ticking - and perhaps the most intriguing - comes from the very core of El Nino. Researchers have found that some aspects of this cycle of alternating warm and relatively cold waters along the equatorial Pacific have a tendency to repeat every 2 years. The overlying winds pulsate at the same pace, as do the globe-girdling effects of the El Nino cycle, from winter warmth in Alaska to heavy rains in Peru and drought in Australia. The climatic ticking in the tropical Pacific is hardly as reliable as the changing of the seasons. Sometimes it is muted, and occasionally it skips a beat. But some researchers nevertheless see hope of using it in the prediction of El Nino and its global effects. In any case, climate researchers are eager to determine what makes El Nino tick. The answer could be an underlying pacemaker of this crucial atmospheric cycle.

  3. Analysis of Connected Climate Systems via Deconvolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kazemzadeh-Atoufi, M. B.; Reischmann, E.; Rial, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    Deconvolution is a technique most often used in signal and image processing to remove the effects of a system's impulse response and recreate the input signal from a given output. In the context of paleoclimate, deconvolution by spectral division has been used to recover the climate system's impulse response, also known as its transfer function, given the δ18O time series record of the north pole as the input and the south as the output (or vice versa). The working hypothesis of polar synchronization justifies the use of deconvolution methods. Various regularization approaches and spectral analysis show a clear connection of millennial scale periodicity linking the polar climates over the past 100,000 years. Tests of spectral peak consistency across regularization factors and of peak validity indicate that the connection is a result of the data and is not an artifact of the method used. Deconvolution can be applied to other linearly connected climate systems including teleconnected systems. Sea surface temperature dipoles found in the North Atlantic Ocean basin, for example, also display potentially geographically linked features, and correlation between the dipoles themselves suggests synchronization of adjacent dipoles. Having identified this system of synchronized variations with linear phase relations, deconvolution methods can be used to investigate potential transfer functions across different scales.

  4. Raising Climate Literacy of K-12 Teachers with Datastreme Earth's Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brey, J. A.; Geer, I.; Weinbeck, R. S.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.

    2014-12-01

    The American Meteorological Society (AMS) DataStreme Project is a free professional development program for in-service K-12 teachers, in which they gain considerable subject matter content and confidence in Earth science instruction. DataStreme Atmosphere, Ocean, and Earth's Climate System (ECS) are offered each fall and spring semester by Local Implementation Teams (LITs) across the country in coordination with a team of AMS Education Program scientists and educators who develop instructional materials, provide logistical support to the LITs, and administer the project. The 3-member LITs mentor about 8 teachers and in some instances an emergency manager, per semester through a given DataStreme course. Teachers may receive 3 tuition-free graduate credits through State University of New York's The College at Brockport upon completion of each DataStreme course. DataStreme is in close alignment with A Framework for K-12 Science Education and the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). Investigating the scientific basis of the workings of Earth's atmosphere, ocean, and climate system follows the cross-cutting theme of the Framework and the NGSS and is the cornerstone of the DataStreme courses. In particular, DataStreme ECS explores the fundamental science of Earth's climate system and addresses the societal impacts relevant to today's teachers and students. The course utilizes resources from respected organizations, such as the IPCC and U.S. Global Change Research Program. Key to the NGSS is that students learn disciplinary core ideas in the context of science and engineering practices. In order for the students to learn in this way, the AMS believes that it is important to train the teachers in this context. DataStreme ECS emphasizes investigation of real-word and current NASA and NOAA data. Participants also are made aware of NASA's EdGCM, a research-grade Global Climate Model where they can explore various future climate scenarios in the same way that actual

  5. Online Mapping Systems for Climate Data Delivery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gray, S. T.; Nicholson, C. M.; Bergantino, A. R.

    2009-12-01

    Online, map-based applications have experienced an explosion in popularity over the past decade. The success of these systems is largely due to their ability to provide a spatial framework data exploration, and for the visual context (e.g., satellite images) they offer. Here we detail the development of a new online mapping system for Wyoming that will serve as a portal for the delivery of weather, climate, and water-related data for users across the state. While capitalizing on the success of previous online mapping efforts, this new system also highlights the potential for additional applications and functionality. Known as the Wyoming Internet Map Server (WyoIMS), the system brings together real-time observations and summary products from multiple federal agencies (NOAA-NWS, NRCS, USGS) to provide “one-stop-shopping” for key climatic datasets. Likewise this system is providing a platform for data delivery, archiving, and QC/QA as part of a new statewide hydroclimatic monitoring network. Moving beyond the simple transfer of data, this system also allows users to access information from resources that include state libraries and various databases that contain information related to climate and water resources. Users can, for example, select individual counties, watersheds, irrigation districts, or municipalities and download a wide range of documents and reports specific to those locations. On the whole, WyoIMS has become a catalyst for the development of new climate-related products, and a foundation for decision support with applications in water resources, wildlife management, and agriculture.

  6. Pilot climate data system user's guide

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reph, M. G.; Treinish, L. A.; Bloch, L.

    1984-01-01

    Instructions for using the Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS), an interactive, scientific data management system for locating, obtaining, manipulating, and displaying climate-research data are presented. The PCDS currently provides this supoort for approximately twenty data sets. Figures that illustrate the terminal displays which a user sees when he/she runs the PCDS and some examples of the output from this system are included. The capabilities which are described in detail allow a user to perform the following: (1) obtain comprehensive descriptions of a number of climate parameter data sets and the associated sensor measurements from which they were derived; (2) obtain detailed information about the temporal coverage and data volume of data sets which are readily accessible via the PCDS; (3) extract portions of a data set using criteria such as time range and geographic location, and output the data to tape, user terminal, system printer, or online disk files in a special data-set-independent format; (4) access and manipulate the data in these data-set-independent files, performing such functions as combining the data, subsetting the data, and averaging the data; and (5) create various graphical representations of the data stored in the data-set-independent files.

  7. Network of Networks and the Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurths, Jürgen; Boers, Niklas; Bookhagen, Bodo; Donges, Jonathan; Donner, Reik; Malik, Nishant; Marwan, Norbert; Stolbova, Veronika

    2013-04-01

    Network of networks is a new direction in complex systems science. One can find such networks in various fields, such as infrastructure (power grids etc.), human brain or Earth system. Basic properties and new characteristics, such as cross-degree, or cross-betweenness will be discussed. This allows us to quantify the structural role of single vertices or whole sub-networks with respect to the interaction of a pair of subnetworks on local, mesoscopic, and global topological scales. Next, we consider an inverse problem: Is there a backbone-like structure underlying the climate system? For this we propose a method to reconstruct and analyze a complex network from data generated by a spatio-temporal dynamical system. This technique is then applied to 3-dimensional data of the climate system. We interpret different heights in the atmosphere as different networks and the whole as a network of networks. This approach enables us to uncover relations to global circulation patterns in oceans and atmosphere. The global scale view on climate networks offers promising new perspectives for detecting dynamical structures based on nonlinear physical processes in the climate system. This concept is applied to Indian Monsoon data in order to characterize the regional occurrence of strong rain events and its impact on predictability. References: Arenas, A., A. Diaz-Guilera, J. Kurths, Y. Moreno, and C. Zhou, Phys. Reports 2008, 469, 93. Donges, J., Y. Zou, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths, Europhys. Lett. 2009, 87, 48007. Donner, R., Y. Zou, J. Donges, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths, Phys. Rev. E 2010, 81, 015101(R ). Mokhov, I. I., D. A. Smirnov, P. I. Nakonechny, S. S. Kozlenko, E. P. Seleznev, and J. Kurths, Geophys. Res. Lett. 2011, 38, L00F04. Malik, N., B. Bookhagen, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths, Climate Dynamics, 2012, 39, 971. Donges, J., H. Schultz, N. Marwan, Y. Zou, J. Kurths, Eur. J. Phys. B 2011, 84, 635-651. Donges, J., R. Donner, M. Trauth, N. Marwan, H.J. Schellnhuber, and J. Kurths

  8. Variable temperature seat climate control system

    DOEpatents

    Karunasiri, Tissa R.; Gallup, David F.; Noles, David R.; Gregory, Christian T.

    1997-05-06

    A temperature climate control system comprises a variable temperature seat, at least one heat pump, at least one heat pump temperature sensor, and a controller. Each heat pump comprises a number of Peltier thermoelectric modules for temperature conditioning the air in a main heat exchanger and a main exchanger fan for passing the conditioned air from the main exchanger to the variable temperature seat. The Peltier modules and each main fan may be manually adjusted via a control switch or a control signal. Additionally, the temperature climate control system may comprise a number of additional temperature sensors to monitor the temperature of the ambient air surrounding the occupant as well as the temperature of the conditioned air directed to the occupant. The controller is configured to automatically regulate the operation of the Peltier modules and/or each main fan according to a temperature climate control logic designed both to maximize occupant comfort during normal operation, and minimize possible equipment damage, occupant discomfort, or occupant injury in the event of a heat pump malfunction.

  9. The Heartbeat of the Oligocene Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pälike, Heiko; Norris, Richard D.; Herrle, Jens O.; Wilson, Paul A.; Coxall, Helen K.; Lear, Caroline H.; Shackleton, Nicholas J.; Tripati, Aradhna K.; Wade, Bridget S.

    2006-12-01

    A 13-million-year continuous record of Oligocene climate from the equatorial Pacific reveals a pronounced “heartbeat” in the global carbon cycle and periodicity of glaciations. This heartbeat consists of 405,000-, 127,000-, and 96,000-year eccentricity cycles and 1.2-million-year obliquity cycles in periodically recurring glacial and carbon cycle events. That climate system response to intricate orbital variations suggests a fundamental interaction of the carbon cycle, solar forcing, and glacial events. Box modeling shows that the interaction of the carbon cycle and solar forcing modulates deep ocean acidity as well as the production and burial of global biomass. The pronounced 405,000-year eccentricity cycle is amplified by the long residence time of carbon in the oceans.

  10. Organizational Climate Assessment: a Systemic Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Argentero, Piergiorgio; Setti, Ilaria

    A number of studies showed how the set up of an involving and motivating work environment represents a source for organizational competitive advantage: in this view organizational climate (OC) research occupies a preferred position in current I/O psychology. The present study is a review carried out to establish the breadth of the literature on the characteristics of OC assessment considered in a systemic perspective. An organization with a strong climate is a work environment whose members have similar understanding of the norms and practices and share the same expectations. OC should be considered as a sort of emergent entity and, as such, it can be studied only within a systemic perspective because it is linked with some organizational variables, in terms of antecedents (such as the organization's internal structure and its environmental features) and consequences (such as job performance, psychological well-being and withdrawal) of the climate itself. In particular, when employees have a positive view of their organizational environment, consistently with their values and interests, they are more likely to identify their personal goals with those of the organization and, in turn, to invest a greater effort to pursue them: the employees' perception of the organizational environment is positively related to the key outcomes such as job involvement, effort and performance. OC analysis could also be considered as an effective Organizational Development (OD) tool: in particular, the Survey Feedback, that is the return of the OC survey results, could be an effective instrument to assess the efficacy of specific OD programs, such as Team Building, TQM and Gainsharing. The present study is focused on the interest to investigate all possible variables which are potential moderators of the climate - outcome relationship: therefore future researches in the OC field should consider a great variety of organizational variables, considered in terms of antecedents and effects

  11. Precambrian evolution of the climate system.

    PubMed

    Walker, J C

    1990-01-01

    Climate is an important environmental parameter of the early Earth, likely to have affected the origin and evolution of life, the composition and mineralogy of sedimentary rocks, and stable isotope ratios in sedimentary minerals. There is little observational evidence constraining Precambrian climates. Most of our knowledge is at present theoretical. Factors that must have affected the climate include reduced solar luminosity, enhanced rotation rate of the Earth, an area of land that probably increased with time, and biological evolution, particularly as it affected the composition of the atmosphere and the greenhouse effect. Cloud cover is a major uncertainty about the early Earth. Carbon dioxide and its greenhouse effect are the factors that have been most extensively studied. This paper presents a new examination of the biogeochemical cycles of carbon as they may have changed between an Archean Earth deficient in land, sedimentary rocks, and biological activity, and a Proterozoic Earth much like the modern Earth, but lacking terrestrial life and carbonate-secreting plankton. Results of a numerical simulation of this transition show how increasing biological activity could have drawn down atmospheric carbon dioxide by extracting sedimentary organic carbon from the system. Increasing area of continents could further have drawn down carbon dioxide by encouraging the accumulation of carbonate sediments. An attempt to develop a numerical simulation of the carbon cycles of the Precambrian raises questions about sources and sinks of marine carbon and alkalinity on a world without continents. More information is needed about sea-floor weathering processes.

  12. Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system

    SciTech Connect

    Lenton, T.M.; Held, H.; Lucht, W.; Rahmstorf, S.; Kriegler, E. |; Hall, J.W.; Schellnhuber, H.J. |

    2008-02-12

    The term 'tipping point' commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here the authors introduce the term 'tipping element' to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. They critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and they assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then the authors explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points.

  13. The Actual (Un)usefulness of the Bologna System in Medical Education

    PubMed Central

    Masic, Izet; Begic, Edin

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Faculty of Medicine, University of Sarajevo has officially started working on 22.11.1944, and is the oldest faculty in the medical field in Bosnia and Herzegovina. At the same time there are two systems of organization of the teaching process, the old system and the Bologna system. Aim: To analyze the implementation of the Bologna system, and making an overview of its justification. Material and methods: Answers from questionnaires from total of 459 students were analyzed (197 who had studied under the old system and 262 who studied under the Bologna system), so total of four generations of the Bologna system. They filled out a questionnaire in which they evaluated the teaching process. Student’s opinion about quality of medical education was measured by modified Lickert scale. Results: Students of old system are older than students of the Bologna process, whose average age is increasing from generation to generation, given the growing number of students who repeat a year. All students of old system repeated an academic year once or several times (p <0.05). Analysis of average grades showed statistically significant difference (p <0.05), where students in the Bologna system had higher averages than students who were studying under the old system. The presence of large number of female students, in both systems is significant (p <0.05). Out of 33 questions about satisfaction of class, 15 were answered with better average grade from students of the Bologna system. A slight improvement in the Bologna system is in terms of the evaluation of the quality of the educational process (teachers, methods, effects). The only significant progress has been proven in terms of rating the degree of computerization of the educational process–general records on enrolled students (old system vs Bologna system–3,44 vs 3,63), record of attendance (3,47 vs 3,73), obtaining certificates (3,08 vs 3,84), method of registration of exam (2,98 vs 3,71), method of practical

  14. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Jiang, J. H.

    2013-12-01

    The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations. The traditional approach to climate model evaluation, which compares a single parameter at a time, identifies symptomatic model biases and errors but fails to diagnose the model problems. The model diagnosis process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. To address these challenges, we are developing a parallel, distributed web-service system that enables the physics-based multi-variable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. We have developed a methodology to transform an existing science application code into a web service using a Python wrapper interface and Python web service frameworks (i.e., Flask, Gunicorn, and Tornado). The web-service system, called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), currently supports (1) all the datasets from Obs4MIPs and a few ocean datasets from NOAA and Argo, which can serve as observation-based reference data for model evaluation and (2) many of CMIP5 model outputs covering a broad range of atmosphere, ocean, and land variables from the CMIP5 specific historical runs and AMIP runs. Analysis capabilities currently supported by CMDA are (1) the calculation of annual and seasonal means of physical variables, (2) the calculation of time evolution of the means in any specified geographical region, (3) the calculation of correlation between two variables, and (4) the calculation of difference between two variables. A web user interface is chosen for CMDA because it not only lowers the learning curve and removes the adoption barrier of the tool but also enables instantaneous use

  15. Correlation of laboratory testing and actual operations for the West Valley supernatant treatment system

    SciTech Connect

    Kurath, D E; Bray, L A; Ross, W A; Ploetz, D K

    1989-04-01

    An ion exchange process which removes Cs-137 from the supernatant liquid associated with neutralized PUREX high-level waste at the West Valley Demonstration Project was developed at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory. West Valley has now achieved initial operation of the supernatant treatment system, and results have confirmed the laboratory studies. This paper addresses the development of the predictions of system operations and the initial results of the system. 2 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs.

  16. Modeling and testing of fractionation effects with refrigerant blends in an actual residential heat pump system

    SciTech Connect

    Biancardi, F.R.; Pandy, D.R.; Sienel, T.H.; Michels, H.H.

    1997-12-31

    The heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) industry is actively evaluating and testing hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerant blends as a means of complying with current and impending national and international environmental regulations restricting the use and disposal of conventional chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) refrigerants that contribute to the global ozone-depletion effects. While analyses and system performance tools have shown that HFC refrigerant blends offer certain performance, capacity, and operational advantages, there are significant possible service and operational issues that are raised by the use of blends. Many of these issues occur due to the fractionation of the blends. Therefore, the objective of this program was to conduct analyses and experimental tests aimed at understanding these issues, develop approaches or techniques to predict these effects, and convey to the industry safe and reliable approaches. As a result, analytical models verified by laboratory data have been developed that predict the fractionation effects of HFC refrigerant blends (1) when exposed to selected POE lubricants, (2) during the system charging process from large liquid containers, and (3) during system start-up, operation, and shutdown within various system components (where two-phase refrigerant exists) and during selected system and component leakage scenarios. Model predictions and experimental results are presented for HFC refrigerant blends containing R-32, R-134a, and R-125 and the data are generalized for various operating conditions and scenarios.

  17. Actualizing Personalized Healthcare for Women through Connected Data Systems: Breast Cancer Screening and Diagnosis

    PubMed Central

    Weerasinghe, Roshanthi

    2013-01-01

    Background: Healthcare organizations have invested in electronic patient data systems, yet use of health data to optimize personalized care has been limited. Primary Study Objective: To develop and pilot an integrated source of health system data related to breast healthcare. Methods/Design: This study is a quality improvement project. Patient-level data from multiple internal sources were identified, mapped to a common data model, linked, and validated to create a breast healthcare-specific data mart. Linkages were based on matching algorithms using patient identifiers to group data from the same patient. Data definitions, a data dictionary, and indicators for quality and benchmarking aligned with standardized measures. Clinical pathways were developed to outline the patient populations, data elements, decision points, and outcomes for specific conditions. Setting: Electronic data sources in a community-based health system in the United States. Participants: Women receiving breast cancer screening, prevention, and diagnosis services. Main Outcome Measures: Distribution of mammography examinations and pathologic results of breast biopsies. Results: From 2008 to 2011, 200768 screening and 50200 diagnostic mammograms were obtained; rates varied by age over time. Breast biopsies for 7332 women indicated 23.3% with invasive breast cancer, 6.7% with ductal carcinoma in situ, and 70.0% with nonmalignant diagnoses that would not have been further differentiated by administrative codes alone. Limitations: Evaluation of validity and efficiency and additional tracking of clinical outcomes are needed. Conclusions: The creation of a patient-centered data system by connecting and integrating disparate data sources within a large health system allows customized analyses of data and improves capacity for clinical decision making and personalized healthcare. PMID:24416691

  18. NASA's climate data system primer, version 1.2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Closs, James W.; Reph, Mary G.; Olsen, Lola M.

    1989-01-01

    This is a beginner's manual for NASA's Climate Data System (NCDS), an interactive scientific information management system that allows one to locate, access, manipulate, and display climate-research data. Additional information on the use of the system is available from the system itself.

  19. Processes in Decadal Climate Variability and their Incorporation into a Decadal Climate Prediction System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Proemmel, K.; Cubasch, U.; Vamborg, F.

    2012-12-01

    The quality of decadal climate predictions rests fundamentally on the ability of the forecast models realistically to simulate climate and its variability, in particular at decadal timescales. The new German research project "MiKlip - Decadal Predictions" (http://www.fona-miklip.de/en/) aims to develop a system for climate predictions for up to a decade ahead that can then be applied by an operational agency such as the German Meteorological Service DWD. This climate prediction system is based on the MPI-M Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Germany. Different aspects of decadal climate predictions are considered in MiKlip like initialisation strategies, the predictive skill on the regional scale with focus on Europe and Africa and the systematic evaluation of the prediction system. Another part of MiKlip deals with the incorporation of those processes in climate models that are important for the realistic representation of decadal climate variability, and the understanding of the important processes in the numerical prediction system. Processes that have the potential to improve decadal climate predictions are related to e.g. Arctic sea ice, atmospheric chemistry, large volcanic eruptions, atmosphere-ocean coupling, stratosphere and land-atmosphere interaction. The work dealing with the processes can be categorized into assessing the effects of enhanced resolution and of advanced parameterizations and numerics, investigating mechanisms of decadal variability, improvement of existing system components and coupling of additional climate subsystems.

  20. An Assessment of Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100 Using NASA's MERRA and CMIP5 Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Chandler, William S.; Hoell, James M.; Westberg, David; Zhang, Taiping

    2015-01-01

    Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile

  1. Orbital Noise in the Earth System and Climate Fluctuations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Han-Shou; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Frequency noise in the variations of the Earth's obliquity (tilt) can modulate the insolation signal for climate change. Including this frequency noise effect on the incoming solar radiation, we have applied an energy balance climate model to calculate the climate fluctuations for the past one million years. Model simulation results are in good agreement with the geologically observed paleoclimate data. We conclude that orbital noise in the Earth system may be the major cause of the climate fluctuation cycles.

  2. Actual measurement, hygrothermal response experiment and growth prediction analysis of microbial contamination of central air conditioning system in Dalian, China

    PubMed Central

    Lv, Yang; Hu, Guangyao; Wang, Chunyang; Yuan, Wenjie; Wei, Shanshan; Gao, Jiaoqi; Wang, Boyuan; Song, Fangchao

    2017-01-01

    The microbial contamination of central air conditioning system is one of the important factors that affect the indoor air quality. Actual measurement and analysis were carried out on microbial contamination in central air conditioning system at a venue in Dalian, China. Illumina miseq method was used and three fungal samples of two units were analysed by high throughput sequencing. Results showed that the predominant fungus in air conditioning unit A and B were Candida spp. and Cladosporium spp., and two fungus were further used in the hygrothermal response experiment. Based on the data of Cladosporium in hygrothermal response experiment, this paper used the logistic equation and the Gompertz equation to fit the growth predictive model of Cladosporium genera in different temperature and relative humidity conditions, and the square root model was fitted based on the two environmental factors. In addition, the models were carried on the analysis to verify the accuracy and feasibility of the established model equation. PMID:28367963

  3. Solar Powered Automobile Interior Climate Control System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howard, Richard T. (Inventor)

    2003-01-01

    There is provided a climate control system for a parked vehicle that includes a solar panel, thermostatic switch, fans, and thermoelectric coolers. The solar panel can serve as the sole source of electricity for the system. The system affords convenient installation and removal by including solar panels that are removably attached to the exterior of a vehicle. A connecting wire electrically connects the solar panels to a housing that is removably mounted to a partially opened window on the vehicle. The thermostatic switch, fans, and thermoelectric coolers are included within the housing. The thermostatic switch alternates the direction of the current flow through the thermoelectric coolers to selectively heat or cool the interior of the vehicle. The interior surface of the thermoelectric coolers are in contact with interior heat sinks that have air circulated across them by an interior fan. Similarly, the exterior surface of the thermoelectric coolers are in contact with exterior heat sinks that have air circulated across them by an exterior fan.

  4. The Community Climate System Model Version 4

    SciTech Connect

    Gent, Peter R.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Donner, Leo J.; Holland, Marika M.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Jayne, Steve R.; Lawrence, David M.; Neale, Richard; Rasch, Philip J.; Vertenstein, Mariana; Worley, Patrick; Yang, Zong-Liang; Zhang, Minghua

    2011-10-01

    The fourth version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) was recently completed and released to the climate community. This paper describes developments to all the CCSM components, and documents fully coupled pre-industrial control runs compared to the previous version, CCSM3. Using the standard atmosphere and land resolution of 1{sup o} results in the sea surface temperature biases in the major upwelling regions being comparable to the 1.4{sup o} resolution CCSM3. Two changes to the deep convection scheme in the atmosphere component result in the CCSM4 producing El Nino/Southern Oscillation variability with a much more realistic frequency distribution than the CCSM3, although the amplitude is too large compared to observations. They also improve the representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and the frequency distribution of tropical precipitation. A new overflow parameterization in the ocean component leads to an improved simulation of the deep ocean density structure, especially in the North Atlantic. Changes to the CCSM4 land component lead to a much improved annual cycle of water storage, especially in the tropics. The CCSM4 sea ice component uses much more realistic albedos than the CCSM3, and the Arctic sea ice concentration is improved in the CCSM4. An ensemble of 20th century simulations runs produce an excellent match to the observed September Arctic sea ice extent from 1979 to 2005. The CCSM4 ensemble mean increase in globally-averaged surface temperature between 1850 and 2005 is larger than the observed increase by about 0.4 C. This is consistent with the fact that the CCSM4 does not include a representation of the indirect effects of aerosols, although other factors may come into play. The CCSM4 still has significant biases, such as the mean precipitation distribution in the tropical Pacific Ocean, too much low cloud in the Arctic, and the latitudinal distributions of short-wave and long-wave cloud forcings.

  5. Weakening of atmospheric information flow in a warming climate in the Community Climate System Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Yi; Ebert-Uphoff, Imme

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a new perspective of climate change by revealing the changing characteristics of atmospheric information flow in a warming climate. The key idea is to interpret large-scale atmospheric dynamical processes as information flow around the globe and to identify the pathways of this information flow using a climate network based on causal discovery and graphical models. We construct such networks using the daily geopotential height data from the Community Climate System Model Version 4.0 (CCSM4.0)'s 20th century climate simulation and 21st century climate projection. We show that in the CCSM4.0 model under enhanced greenhouse gases (GHGs) forcing, prominent midlatitude information pathways in the midtroposphere weaken and shift poleward, while major tropical information pathways start diminishing. Averaged over the entire Northern Hemisphere, the atmospheric information flow weakens. The implications of this weakening for the interconnectivity among different geographical locations and for the intrinsic predictability of the atmosphere are discussed.

  6. Using MERRA, AMIP II, CMIP5 Outputs to Assess Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stackhouse, P. W.; Westberg, D. J.; Hoell, J. M., Jr.; Chandler, W.; Zhang, T.

    2014-12-01

    In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Thus, increasing the energy efficiency of buildings is paramount to reducing energy costs and emissions. Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climates zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE (formerly known as the American Society of Hearting, Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning Engineers). A significant shortcoming of the methodology used in constructing such maps is the use of surface observations (located mainly near airports) that are unequally distributed and frequently have periods of missing data that need to be filled by various approximation schemes. This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the ASHRAE climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones. These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and some tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones that require longer time series to confirm. Using the uncertainties of the basic surface temperature and precipitation parameters from MERRA as determined by comparison to surface measurements, we first compare patterns and variability of ASHRAE climate zones from MERRA relative to present day climate model runs from AMIP simulations to establish baseline sensitivity. Based upon these results, we assess the variability of the ASHRAE climate zones according to CMIP runs through 2100 using an ensemble analysis that classifies model output changes by

  7. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Jiang, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    We have developed a cloud-enabled web-service system that empowers physics-based, multi-variable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. We have developed a methodology to transform an existing science application code into a web service using a Python wrapper interface and Python web service frameworks. The web-service system, called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), currently supports (1) all the observational datasets from Obs4MIPs and a few ocean datasets from NOAA and Argo, which can serve as observation-based reference data for model evaluation, (2) many of CMIP5 model outputs covering a broad range of atmosphere, ocean, and land variables from the CMIP5 specific historical runs and AMIP runs, and (3) ECMWF reanalysis outputs for several environmental variables in order to supplement observational datasets. Analysis capabilities currently supported by CMDA are (1) the calculation of annual and seasonal means of physical variables, (2) the calculation of time evolution of the means in any specified geographical region, (3) the calculation of correlation between two variables, (4) the calculation of difference between two variables, and (5) the conditional sampling of one physical variable with respect to another variable. A web user interface is chosen for CMDA because it not only lowers the learning curve and removes the adoption barrier of the tool but also enables instantaneous use, avoiding the hassle of local software installation and environment incompatibility. CMDA will be used as an educational tool for the summer school organized by JPL's Center for Climate Science in 2014. In order to support 30+ simultaneous users during the school, we have deployed CMDA to the Amazon cloud environment. The cloud-enabled CMDA will provide each student with a virtual machine while the user interaction with the system will remain the same

  8. [The Red Cross System for War Relief during the Second World War and Actual Conditions of Its Efforts in Burma].

    PubMed

    Kawahara, Yukari

    2015-12-01

    This paper aims to show the system for relief provided by the Japanese Red Cross relief units during the Second World War, as well as the actual activities of sixteen of its relief units dispatched to Burma. The Red Cross wartime relief efforts involved using personnel and funding prepared beforehand to provide aid to those injured in war, regardless of their status as ally or enemy. Thus they were able to receive support from the army in order to ensure safety and provide supplies. Nurses dispatched to Burma took care of many patients who suffered from malnutrition and physical injuries amidst the outbreak of infectious diseases typical of tropical areas, without sufficient replacement members. Base hospitals not meant for the front lines also came under attack, and the nurses' lives were thus in mortal danger. Of the 374 original members, 29 died or went missing in action.

  9. Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; ,

    2006-01-01

    The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  10. Pilot climate data system: User's guide for charts subsystem

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noll, C. E.

    1984-01-01

    The use of the Pilot Climate Data System's (PCDS) CHARTS Subsystem is described. This facility is an interactive software system for the graphical production and enhancement of text and viewgraph displays.

  11. A National Program for Analysis of the Climate System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schubert, Siegfried; Arkin, Phil; Kalnay, Eugenia; Laver, James; Trenberth, Kevin

    2002-01-01

    Perhaps the single greatest roadblock to fundamental advances in our understanding of climate variability and climate change is the lack of robust and unbiased long-term global observations of the climate system. Such observations are critical for the identification and diagnosis of climate variations, and provide the constraints necessary for developing and validating climate models. The first generation of reanalysis efforts, by using fixed analysis systems, eliminated the artificial climate signals that occurred in analyses generated at the operational numerical weather prediction centers. These datasets are now widely used by the scientific community in a variety of applications including atmosphere-ocean interactions, seasonal prediction, climate monitoring, the hydrological cycle, and a host of regional and other diagnostic studies. These reanalyses, however, had problems that made them sub-optimal or even unusable for some applications. Perhaps the most serious problem for climate applications was that, while the assimilation system remained fixed, changes in the observing systems did produce spurious changes in the perceived climate. The first generation reanalysis products also exposed problems with physical consistency of the products and the accurate representation of physical processes in the climate system. Examples are bias in the estimates of ocean surface fluxes, and inadequate representation of polar hydrology. In this talk, I will describe some initial plans for a national program on reananlysis. The program is envisioned to be part of an on-going activity to maintain, improve, and reprocess our record of climate observations. I will discuss various issues affecting the quality of reanalyses, with a special focus on those relevant to the ocean.

  12. Lessons Learned from Eight Years' Experience of Actual Operation, and Future Prospects of JMA Earthquake Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoshiba, M.; Nishimae, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Since 2007, experiences of actual operation of EEW have been gained by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). During this period, we have learned lessons from many M6- and M7-class earthquakes, and the Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake. During the Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake, JMA system functioned well: it issued a warning message more than 15 s before strong ground shaking in the Tohoku district (relatively near distance from the epicenter). However, it was not perfect: in addition to the problem of large extent of fault rupture, some false warning messages were issued due to the confusion of the system because of simultaneous multiple aftershocks which occurred at the wide rupture area. To address the problems, JMA will introduce two new methods into the operational system this year to start their tests, aiming at practical operation within a couple of years. One is Integrated Particle Filter (IPF) method, which is an integrated algorithm of multiple hypocenter determination techniques with Bayesian estimation, in which amplitude information is also used for hypocenter determination. The other is Propagation of Local Undamped Motion (PLUM) method, in which warning message is issued when strong ground shaking is detected at nearby stations around the target site (e.g., within 30 km). Here, hypocenter and magnitude are not required in PLUM. Aiming at application for several years later, we are investigating a new approach, in which current wavefield is estimated in real time, and then future wavefield is predicted time evolutionally from the current situation using physics of wave propagation. Here, hypocenter and magnitude are not necessarily required, but real-time observation of ground shaking is necessary. JMA also plans to predict long period ground motion (up to 8 s) with the EEW system for earthquake damage mitigation in high-rise buildings. Its test will start using the operational system in the near future.

  13. Applying "Climate" system to teaching basic climatology and raising public awareness of climate change issues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gordova, Yulia; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Gordov, Evgeny

    2016-04-01

    While there is a strong demand for innovation in digital learning, available training programs in the environmental sciences have no time to adapt to rapid changes in the domain content. A joint group of scientists and university teachers develops and implements an educational environment for new learning experiences in basics of climatic science and its applications. This so-called virtual learning laboratory "Climate" contains educational materials and interactive training courses developed to provide undergraduate and graduate students with profound understanding of changes in regional climate and environment. The main feature of this Laboratory is that students perform their computational tasks on climate modeling and evaluation and assessment of climate change using the typical tools of the "Climate" information-computational system, which are usually used by real-life practitioners performing such kind of research. Students have an opportunity to perform computational laboratory works using information-computational tools of the system and improve skills of their usage simultaneously with mastering the subject. We did not create an artificial learning environment to pass the trainings. On the contrary, the main purpose of association of the educational block and computational information system was to familiarize students with the real existing technologies for monitoring and analysis of data on the state of the climate. Trainings are based on technologies and procedures which are typical for Earth system sciences. Educational courses are designed to permit students to conduct their own investigations of ongoing and future climate changes in a manner that is essentially identical to the techniques used by national and international climate research organizations. All trainings are supported by lectures, devoted to the basic aspects of modern climatology, including analysis of current climate change and its possible impacts ensuring effective links between

  14. A Systems Perspective on Responses to Climate Change

    EPA Science Inventory

    The science of climate change integrates many scientific fields to explain and predict the complex effects of greenhouse gas concentrations on the planet’s energy balance, weather patterns, and ecosystems as well as economic and social systems. A changing climate requires respons...

  15. Organizational Climate, Services, and Outcomes in Child Welfare Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glisson, Charles; Green, Philip

    2011-01-01

    Objective: This study examines the association of organizational climate, casework services, and youth outcomes in child welfare systems. Building on preliminary findings linking organizational climate to youth outcomes over a 3-year follow-up period, the current study extends the follow-up period to 7 years and tests main, moderating and…

  16. Gauging the System: Trends in School Climate Measurement and Intervention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Malley, Meagan; Katz, Kristin; Renshaw, Tyler L.; Furlong, Michael J.

    2011-01-01

    Researchers and educators are giving increasing scrutiny to systems-level constructs that contribute to safe, supportive, and effective schools, including school climate. School climate is a multifaceted construct that is commonly conceptualized as school community members' subjective experiences of the structural and contextual elements of a…

  17. Climate and Soil Interactions in the Context of Climate, Water, Ecosystems and Food Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hatfield, J.

    2015-12-01

    Soil as source of ecosystem services is a major component of climate resilience. Two of the critical ecosystem services derived from soil are water and nutrient cycling. High quality soils improve the capacity to absorb and retain precipitation leading to enhanced water availability to plants which increases climate resilience. The trend towards increasing variability in precipitation requires that the soil be capable of maintaining infiltration rates under extreme precipitation events. Climate resilience will occur when crop productivity is stabilized under more variable climate regimes and dependent upon having adequate soil water supplies to each crop. There is a direct relationship between soil quality and crop productivity and as the soil resource is degraded there is a greater gap between attainable and actual productivity of crop. As the soil is improved there is enhanced nutrient cycling which in turn increases nutrient availability to the crop and food security. Soil becomes the foundation of sustainable ecosystems and enhancing the quality of soil will have a benefit to food and water resources. Improving the soil will benefit humankind through multiple impacts on water, food, and ecosystems.

  18. Nodal Network Modelling by Integrating Remote Sensing Derived Actual Evapotranspiration with Spatial Water Balance in a Demand Driven Irrigation System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ullah, Kaleem; Hafeez, Mohsin; Sixsmith, Josh; Faux, Ralph

    2010-05-01

    The long-term sustainability of water for agriculture is in doubt in many regions of the world. The major withdrawals of water are for agriculture, industry, and domestic consumption. Irrigated agriculture is major consumer of fresh water, but a large part of the water devour for irrigation is wasted due to poor management of irrigation systems. Improving water management in irrigated areas and assessment of irrigation performance are critical activities for this endeavour. These activities are needed not only to improve water productivity, but also to increase the sustainability of irrigated agriculture and improving the irrigation efficiency. The improvement of the water use efficiency entail the complete understanding of various components of water balances such as rainfall, surface water, groundwater and evapotranspiration (ET). Evapotranspiration is the overriding aspect of water balance at farm to catchment scale. Many models have been used to measure the Evapotranspiration rate, either empirical or functional. The major disadvantage of this approach is that most methods generate only point values, resulting in estimates that are not representative of large areas. These methods are based on crop factors under ideal conditions and cannot therefore represent actual crop ET. Satellite remote sensing is a powerful mean to estimate ET over various spatial and temporal scales. The use of remote sensing techniques to estimate ET is achieved by solving the energy balance thermodynamics fluxes at the surface of the earth. For improved irrigation system management and operation, a holistic approach of integrating remote sensing derived ET from SAM-ET (spatial algorithm for mapping evapotranspiration) algorithm, for Australian agro-ecosystem with spatial water balance by using nodal network model was applied to evaluate agricultural water management in Coleambally Irrigation Area (CIA), New South Wales, Australia. It covers approximately 79,000 ha of intensive

  19. A personal perspective on modelling the climate system

    PubMed Central

    Palmer, T. N.

    2016-01-01

    Given their increasing relevance for society, I suggest that the climate science community itself does not treat the development of error-free ab initio models of the climate system with sufficient urgency. With increasing levels of difficulty, I discuss a number of proposals for speeding up such development. Firstly, I believe that climate science should make better use of the pool of post-PhD talent in mathematics and physics, for developing next-generation climate models. Secondly, I believe there is more scope for the development of modelling systems which link weather and climate prediction more seamlessly. Finally, here in Europe, I call for a new European Programme on Extreme Computing and Climate to advance our ability to simulate climate extremes, and understand the drivers of such extremes. A key goal for such a programme is the development of a 1 km global climate system model to run on the first exascale supercomputers in the early 2020s. PMID:27274686

  20. The Physics of a Volcanic System: What is the Actual Role Played by Tectonic Setting in Controlling Volcanic Activity?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Canon-Tapia, E.

    2005-12-01

    Modern text-books commonly explain volcanic activity as a direct consequence of plate tectonics, overlooking the different scales characteristic of both types of processes. By acknowledging such differences, however, it is possible to envisage a model of a volcanic system that is based in the same principles of hydrostatics established by Blaise Pascal over 300 yrs ago. Such principles allow us to estimate the local conditions required for the occurrence of volcanism at a given location highlighting the importance of the rock strength and the density difference between melt and its surroundings. This model shows that the minimum thickness of the zone of partial melting in the mantle (or seismically defined Low Velocity Zone) that is required to feed volcanic activity might range from 5 to over 100 km, but also that under certain circumstances a rock strength < 200 MPa may suffice to keep magma trapped at depth whereas in other cases a strength > 600 MPa will not suffice to stop magma ascent resulting in volcanic activity at the surface. Consequently, the model of volcanism developed here explains why is that a given LVZ may lead to volcanic activity in some places whereas a completely identical LVZ may not result in volcanic activity in a different location. Consequently, this model provides a general framework that allows us to better understand the actual role played by tectonic setting in controlling volcanism at a planetary scale.

  1. System's flips in climate-related energy (CRE) systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, Maria-Helena; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Engeland, Kolbjørn; François, Baptiste; Renard, Benjamin

    2014-05-01

    Several modern environmental questions invite to explore the complex relationships between natural phenomena and human behaviour at a range of space and time scales. This usually involves a number of cause-effect (causal) relationships, linking actions and events. In lay terms, 'effect' can be defined as 'what happened' and 'cause', 'why something happened.' In a changing world or merely moving from one scale to another, shifts in perspective are expected, bringing some phenomena into the foreground and putting others to the background. Systems can thus flip from one set of causal structures to another in response to environmental perturbations and human innovations or behaviors, for instance, as space-time signatures are modified. The identification of these flips helps in better understanding and predicting how societies and stakeholders react to a shift in perspective. In this study, our motivation is to investigate possible consequences of the shift to a low carbon economy in terms of socio-technico systems' flips. The focus is on the regional production of Climate-Related Energy (CRE) (hydro-, wind- and solar-power). We search for information on historic shifts that may help defining the forcing conditions of abrupt changes and extreme situations. We identify and present a series of examples in which we try to distinguish the various tipping points, thresholds, breakpoints and regime shifts that are characteristic of complex systems in the CRE production domain. We expect that with these examples our comprehension of the question will be enriched, providing us the elements needed to better validate modeling attempts, to predict and manage flips of complex CRE production systems. The work presented is part of the FP7 project COMPLEX (Knowledge based climate mitigation systems for a low carbon economy; http://www.complex.ac.uk/).

  2. DataStreme Earth's Climate System: Building a Climate Literate Society through Effective Partnerships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brey, J. A.; Geer, I. W.; Weinbeck, R. S.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    Effective partnerships are key to increasing climate and overall environmental literacy. Financial support from NSF, NASA, and NOAA has allowed the American Meteorological Society (AMS) to offer DataStreme courses for almost 20 years. DataStreme Atmosphere, Ocean, and Earth's Climate System (ECS) are offered each fall and spring semester by Local Implementation Teams (LITs) across the country in coordination with AMS Education Program scientists and educators who develop instructional materials, provide logistical support to the LITs, and administer the project. A long-standing partnership with State University of New York's The College at Brockport gives teachers the opportunity to receive 3 tuition-free graduate credits upon successful completion of each DataStreme course and construction of a Plan of Action for educational peer-training. DataStreme ECS investigates the fundamental science of Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. The course provides participants with the knowledge to make informed climate decisions. In fact, according to a recent three-year study conducted by AMS, 98% of DataStreme ECS participants reported an increase in environmental literacy as a result of the course. DataStreme Atmosphere, Ocean, and ECS content has been improved because of AMS partnerships with NOAA and NASA. Specifically, hundreds of NASA and NOAA scientists and faculty from numerous institutions both domestic and abroad have contributed and reviewed DataStreme ECS content. Additional collaborations with Consortium for Ocean Leadership and the U.S. Ice Drilling Program greatly improved the course's paleoclimate content. Looking ahead, the Climate Resilience Toolkit from NOAA's Climate Program Office will further bolster the course this fall. These partnerships have resulted in a powerful, content-rich climate science course for K-12 teachers, building the foundation to a climate literate society.

  3. Residential Dehumidification Systems Research for Hot-Humid Climates

    SciTech Connect

    2005-02-01

    Twenty homes were tested and monitored in the hot-humid climate of Houston, Texas, to evaluate the humidity control performance and operating cost of six integrated dehumidification and ventilation systems.

  4. INTRODUCTION: Focus on Climate Engineering: Intentional Intervention in the Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2009-12-01

    Geoengineering techniques for countering climate change have been receiving much press recently as a `Plan B' if a global deal to tackle climate change is not agreed at the COP15 negotiations in Copenhagen this December. However, the field is controversial as the methods may have unforeseen consequences, potentially making temperatures rise in some regions or reducing rainfall, and many aspects remain under-researched. This focus issue of Environmental Research Letters is a collection of research articles, invited by David Keith, University of Calgary, and Ken Caldeira, Carnegie Institution, that present and evaluate different methods for engineering the Earth's climate. Not only do the letters in this issue highlight various methods of climate engineering but they also detail the arguments for and against climate engineering as a concept. Further reading Focus on Geoengineering at http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/subject/tag=geoengineering IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science is an open-access proceedings service available at www.iop.org/EJ/journal/ees Focus on Climate Engineering: Intentional Intervention in the Climate System Contents Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming David L Mitchell and William Finnegan Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change Andrew Ross and H Damon Matthews Researching geoengineering: should not or could not? Martin Bunzl Of mongooses and mitigation: ecological analogues to geoengineering H Damon Matthews and Sarah E Turner Toward ethical norms and institutions for climate engineering research David R Morrow, Robert E Kopp and Michael Oppenheimer On the possible use of geoengineering to moderate specific climate change impacts Michael C MacCracken The impact of geoengineering aerosols on stratospheric temperature and ozone P Heckendorn, D Weisenstein, S Fueglistaler, B P Luo, E Rozanov, M Schraner, L W Thomason and T Peter The fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a geoengineered

  5. Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.

    2016-12-01

    Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power system of Great Britain (including coal, gas and nuclear generation), demonstrating why multi-decadal approaches are necessary. All aspects of the example system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, with the impacts being most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability increase in a 2025 wind-power scenario, with a 4-fold increase in the inter-annual range of operating hours for baseload such as nuclear. The impacts on peak load and peaking-plant are comparably small. Less than 10 years of power supply and demand data are shown to be insufficient for providing robust power system planning guidance. This suggests renewable integration studies—widely used in policy, investment and system design—should adopt a more robust approach to climate characterisation.

  6. The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.

    PubMed

    Harley, Christopher D G; Randall Hughes, A; Hultgren, Kristin M; Miner, Benjamin G; Sorte, Cascade J B; Thornber, Carol S; Rodriguez, Laura F; Tomanek, Lars; Williams, Susan L

    2006-02-01

    Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.

  7. Climate Change Impact Assessments for International Market Systems (CLIMARK)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winkler, J. A.; Andresen, J.; Black, J.; Bujdoso, G.; Chmielewski, F.; Kirschke, D.; Kurlus, R.; Liszewska, M.; Loveridge, S.; Niedzwiedz, T.; Nizalov, D.; Rothwell, N.; Tan, P.; Ustrnul, Z.; von Witzke, H.; Zavalloni, C.; Zhao, J.; Zhong, S.

    2012-12-01

    The vast majority of climate change impact assessments evaluate how local or regional systems and processes may be affected by a future climate. Alternative strategies that extend beyond the local or regional scale are needed when assessing the potential impacts of climate change on international market systems, including agricultural commodities. These industries have multiple production regions that are distributed worldwide and are likely to be differentially impacted by climate change. Furthermore, for many industries and market systems, especially those with long-term climate-dependent investments, temporal dynamics need to be incorporated into the assessment process, including changing patterns of international trade, consumption and production, and evolving adaptation strategies by industry stakeholder groups. A framework for conducting climate change assessments for international market systems, developed as part of the CLIMARK (Climate Change and International Markets) project is outlined, and progress toward applying the framework for an impact assessment for the international tart cherry industry is described. The tart cherry industry was selected for analysis in part because tart cherries are a perennial crop requiring long-term investments by the producer. Components of the project include the preparation of fine resolution climate scenarios, evaluation of phenological models for diverse production regions, the development of a yield model for tart cherry production, new methods for incorporating individual decision making and adaptation options into impact assessments, and modification of international trade models for use in impact studies. Innovative aspects of the project include linkages between model components and evaluation of the mega-uncertainty surrounding the assessment outcomes. Incorporation of spatial and temporal dynamics provides a more comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts and an assessment product of potentially greater

  8. Developing a National Climate Indicators System to Track Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A. C.; Arndt, D.; Chen, R. S.; Pouyat, R.; Anderson, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. Part of the vision, which is now under development, for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, Atmospheric Composition, Physical Climate Variability and Change, Sectors and Resources of Concern, and Adaptation and Mitigation Responses. This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at spatial

  9. Organizational Reward Systems: Implications for Climate.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-09-01

    engage in behaviors that lead to desired reinforcements produces learned helplessness and reduced effort ( Seligman , 1975). Thus, clarity about...Climate 35 Schrauger, J. S. Responses to evaluation as a function of initial self- perceptions. Psychological Bulletin, 1975, 82, 581-596. Seligman , M...Dorothy Benson, Linda Dutton, Deborah Main, and Barbara Olson for their assistance. LIST l/Mandatory LIST 2/ONR Field (continued) Defense Technical

  10. Comments on Current Space Systems Observing the Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisk, L. A.

    2016-07-01

    The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), which was established in 1992, has been effective in specifying the observations needed for climate studies, and advocating that these observations be made. As a result, there are essential climate variables being observed, particularly from space, and these have formed the basis for our ever-improving models of how the Earth system functions and the human impact on it. We cannot conclude, however, that the current observing system in space is adequate. Climate change is accelerating, and we need to ensure that our observations capture, with completeness and with proper resolution and cadence, the most important changes. Perhaps of most significance, we need to use observations from space to guide the mitigation and adaptation strategies on which at last our civilization seems prepared to embark. And we need to use our observations to educate particularly policy makers on the reality of climate change, so that none deny the need to act. COSPAR is determined to play its part in highlighting the need to strengthen the climate observing system and notably its research component. This is being accomplished through events like the present roundtable, through the work of its Scientific Commission A, its Task Group on GEO (where COSPAR is serving as a member of its Program Board), and by promoting among space agencies and policy-makers the recently released scientific roadmap on Integrated Earth System Science for the period 2016-2025.

  11. Investigations of the Climate System Response to Climate Engineering in a Hierarchy of Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCusker, Kelly E.

    Global warming due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases is causing negative impacts on diverse ecological and human systems around the globe, and these impacts are projected to worsen as climate continues to warm. In the absence of meaningful greenhouse gas emissions reductions, new strategies have been proposed to engineer the climate, with the aim of preventing further warming and avoiding associated climate impacts. We investigate one such strategy here, falling under the umbrella of `solar radiation management', in which sulfate aerosols are injected into the stratosphere. We use a global climate model with a coupled mixed-layer depth ocean and with a fully-coupled ocean general circulation model to simulate the stabilization of climate by balancing increasing carbon dioxide with increasing stratospheric sulfate concentrations. We evaluate whether or not severe climate impacts, such as melting Arctic sea ice, tropical crop failure, or destabilization of the West Antarctic ice sheet, could be avoided. We find that while tropical climate emergencies might be avoided by use of stratospheric aerosol injections, avoiding polar emergencies cannot be guaranteed due to large residual climate changes in those regions, which are in part due to residual atmospheric circulation anomalies. We also find that the inclusion of a fully-coupled ocean is important for determining the regional climate response because of its dynamical feedbacks. The efficacy of stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections, and solar radiation management more generally, depends on its ability to be maintained indefinitely, without interruption from a variety of possible sources, such as technological failure, a breakdown in global cooperation, lack of funding, or negative unintended consequences. We next consider the scenario in which stratospheric sulfate injections are abruptly terminated after a multi- decadal period of implementation while greenhouse gas emissions have continued unabated

  12. Developing a System of National Climate Assessment Indicators to Track Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janetos, A. C.; Kenney, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Arndt, D.

    2012-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/). Part of the vision for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks Atmospheric Composition Physical Climate Variability and Change Sectors and Resources of Concern Adaptation and Mitigation Responses This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at

  13. Arctic melt ponds and energy balance in the climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sudakov, Ivan

    2017-02-01

    Elements of Earth's cryosphere, such as the summer Arctic sea ice pack, are melting at precipitous rates that have far outpaced the projections of large scale climate models. Understanding key processes, such as the evolution of melt ponds that form atop Arctic sea ice and control its optical properties, is crucial to improving climate projections. These types of critical phenomena in the cryosphere are of increasing interest as the climate system warms, and are crucial for predicting its stability. In this paper, we consider how geometrical properties of melt ponds can influence ice-albedo feedback and how it can influence the equilibria in the energy balance of the planet.

  14. Climate information for public health: the role of the IRI climate data library in an integrated knowledge system.

    PubMed

    del Corral, John; Blumenthal, M Benno; Mantilla, Gilma; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J; Thomson, Madeleine C

    2012-09-01

    Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact of climate variability and change on health outcomes. Protecting public health from the vagaries of climate requires new working relationships between the public health sector and the providers of climate data and information. The Climate Information for Public Health Action initiative at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is designed to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use and demand appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of the climate. Significant challenges to building the capacity of health professionals to use climate information in research and decision-making include the difficulties experienced by many in accessing relevant and timely quality controlled data and information in formats that can be readily incorporated into specific analysis with other data sources. We present here the capacities of the IRI climate data library and show how we have used it to build an integrated knowledge system in the support of the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive decision-making with respect to health. Initiated as an aid facilitating exploratory data analysis for climate scientists, the IRI climate data library has emerged as a powerful tool for interdisciplinary researchers focused on topics related to climate impacts on society, including health.

  15. Is there a Climate Network - A Backbone of the Climate System? (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurths, J.

    2010-12-01

    We consider an inverse problem: Is there a backbone-like structure underlying the climate system? For this we propose a method to reconstruct and analyze a complex network from data generated by a spatio-temporal dynamical system. This technique is then applied to reanalysis and model surface air temperature data. Parameters of this network, as betweenness centrality, uncover relations to global circulation patterns in oceans and atmosphere. We especially study the role of hubs and of long range connections, called teleconnections, in the flows of energy and matter in the climate system. The global scale view on climate networks offers promising new perspectives for detecting dynamical structures based on nonlinear physical processes in the climate system. References Arenas, A., A. Diaz-Guilera, J. Kurths, Y. Moreno, and C. Zhou, Phys. Reports 2008, 469, 93. Donges, J., Y. Zou, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths, Europ. Phys. J. ST 2009, 174, 157-179. Donges, J., Y. Zou, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths, Europhys. Lett. 2009, 87, 48007. Nawrath, J. et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 2010, 104, 038701. Donner, R., Y. Zou, J. Donges, N. Marwan, and J. Kurths, Phys. Rev. E 2010, 81, 015101(R ).

  16. Incorporating climate-system and carbon-cycle uncertainties in integrated assessments of climate change. (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogelj, J.; McCollum, D. L.; Reisinger, A.; Knutti, R.; Riahi, K.; Meinshausen, M.

    2013-12-01

    The field of integrated assessment draws from a large body of knowledge across a range of disciplines to gain robust insights about possible interactions, trade-offs, and synergies. Integrated assessment of climate change, for example, uses knowledge from the fields of energy system science, economics, geophysics, demography, climate change impacts, and many others. Each of these fields comes with its associated caveats and uncertainties, which should be taken into account when assessing any results. The geophysical system and its associated uncertainties are often represented by models of reduced complexity in integrated assessment modelling frameworks. Such models include simple representations of the carbon-cycle and climate system, and are often based on the global energy balance equation. A prominent example of such model is the 'Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change', MAGICC. Here we show how a model like MAGICC can be used for the representation of geophysical uncertainties. Its strengths, weaknesses, and limitations are discussed and illustrated by means of an analysis which attempts to integrate socio-economic and geophysical uncertainties. These uncertainties in the geophysical response of the Earth system to greenhouse gases remains key for estimating the cost of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios. We look at uncertainties in four dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. Our results indicate that while geophysical uncertainties are an important factor influencing projections of mitigation costs, political choices that delay mitigation by one or two decades a much more pronounced effect.

  17. Modeling lakes and reservoirs in the climate system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    MacKay, M.D.; Neale, P.J.; Arp, C.D.; De Senerpont Domis, L. N.; Fang, X.; Gal, G.; Jo, K.D.; Kirillin, G.; Lenters, J.D.; Litchman, E.; MacIntyre, S.; Marsh, P.; Melack, J.; Mooij, W.M.; Peeters, F.; Quesada, A.; Schladow, S.G.; Schmid, M.; Spence, C.; Stokes, S.L.

    2009-01-01

    Modeling studies examining the effect of lakes on regional and global climate, as well as studies on the influence of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, are surveyed. Fully coupled atmosphere-land surface-lake climate models that could be used for both of these types of study simultaneously do not presently exist, though there are many applications that would benefit from such models. It is argued here that current understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in freshwater systems is sufficient to begin to construct such models, and a path forward is proposed. The largest impediment to fully representing lakes in the climate system lies in the handling of lakes that are too small to be explicitly resolved by the climate model, and that make up the majority of the lake-covered area at the resolutions currently used by global and regional climate models. Ongoing development within the hydrological sciences community and continual improvements in model resolution should help ameliorate this issue.

  18. Rainwater catchment system design using simulated future climate data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wallace, Corey D.; Bailey, Ryan T.; Arabi, Mazdak

    2015-10-01

    Rainwater harvesting techniques are used worldwide to augment potable water supply, provide water for small-scale irrigation practices, increase rainwater-use efficiency for sustained crop growth in arid and semi-arid regions, decrease urban stormwater flow volumes, and in general to relieve dependency on urban water resources cycles. A number of methods have been established in recent years to estimate reliability of rainwater catchment systems (RWCS) and thereby properly size the components (roof catchment area, storage tank size) of the system for a given climatic region. These methods typically use historical or stochastically-generated rainfall patterns to quantify system performance and optimally size the system, with the latter accounting for possible rainfall scenarios based on statistical relationships of historical rainfall patterns. To design RWCS systems that can sustainably meet water demand under future climate conditions, this paper introduces a method that employs climatic data from general circulation models (GCMs) to develop a suite of catchment area vs. storage size design curves that capture uncertainty in future climate scenarios. Monthly rainfall data for the 2010-2050 time period is statistically downscaled to daily values using a Markov chain algorithm, with results used only from GCMs that yield rainfall patterns that are statistically consistent with historical rainfall patterns. The process is demonstrated through application to two climatic regions of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) in the western Pacific, wherein the majority of the population relies on rainwater harvesting for potable water supply. Through the use of design curves, communities can provide household RWCS that achieve a certain degree of storage reliability. The method described herein can be applied generally to any geographic region. It can be used to first, assess the future performance of existing household systems; and second, to design or modify systems

  19. Web Enabled Collaborative Climate Visualization in the Earth System Grid

    SciTech Connect

    Kendall, Wesley; Glatter, Markus; Huang, Jian; Hoffman, Forrest M; Bernholdt, David E

    2008-01-01

    The recent advances in high performance computing, storage and networking technologies have enabled fundamental changes in current climate research. While sharing datasets and results is already common practice in climate modeling, direct sharing of the analysis and visualization process is also becoming feasible. We report our efforts to develop a capability, coupled with the Earth System Grid (ESG), for sharing an entire executable workspace of visualization among collaborators. Evolutionary history of visualizations of research findings can also be captured and shared. The data intensive nature of the visualization system requires using several advanced techniques of visualization and parallel computing. With visualization clients implemented through standard web browsers, however, the ensuing complexity is made transparent to end-users. We demonstrate the efficacy of our system using cutting edge climate datasets.

  20. Climate observing system studies: An element of the NASA Climate Research Program: Workshop report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1980-01-01

    Plans for NASA's efforts in climatology were discussed. Targets for a comprehensive observing system for the early 1990's were considered. A program to provide useful data in the near and mid-term, and a program to provide for a feasibility assessment of instruments and methods for the development of a long-term system were discussed. Climate parameters that cannot be measured from space were identified. Long-term calibration, intercomparison, standards, and ground truth were discussed.

  1. Effects of changes in climate on landscape and regional processes, and feedbacks to the climate system.

    PubMed

    Callaghan, Terry V; Björn, Lars Olof; Chernov, Yuri; Chapin, Terry; Christensen, Torben R; Huntley, Brian; Ims, Rolf A; Johansson, Margareta; Jolly, Dyanna; Jonasson, Sven; Matveyeva, Nadya; Panikov, Nicolai; Oechel, Walter; Shaver, Gus; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Sitch, Stephen

    2004-11-01

    Biological and physical processes in the Arctic system operate at various temporal and spatial scales to impact large-scale feedbacks and interactions with the earth system. There are four main potential feedback mechanisms between the impacts of climate change on the Arctic and the global climate system: albedo, greenhouse gas emissions or uptake by ecosystems, greenhouse gas emissions from methane hydrates, and increased freshwater fluxes that could affect the thermohaline circulation. All these feedbacks are controlled to some extent by changes in ecosystem distribution and character and particularly by large-scale movement of vegetation zones. Indications from a few, full annual measurements of CO2 fluxes are that currently the source areas exceed sink areas in geographical distribution. The little available information on CH4 sources indicates that emissions at the landscape level are of great importance for the total greenhouse balance of the circumpolar North. Energy and water balances of Arctic landscapes are also important feedback mechanisms in a changing climate. Increasing density and spatial expansion of vegetation will cause a lowering of the albedo and more energy to be absorbed on the ground. This effect is likely to exceed the negative feedback of increased C sequestration in greater primary productivity resulting from the displacements of areas of polar desert by tundra, and areas of tundra by forest. The degradation of permafrost has complex consequences for trace gas dynamics. In areas of discontinuous permafrost, warming, will lead to a complete loss of the permafrost. Depending on local hydrological conditions this may in turn lead to a wetting or drying of the environment with subsequent implications for greenhouse gas fluxes. Overall, the complex interactions between processes contributing to feedbacks, variability over time and space in these processes, and insufficient data have generated considerable uncertainties in estimating the net

  2. Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bardsley, Douglas K.; Sweeney, Susan M.

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

  3. Operating Water Resources Systems Under Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmad, S.

    2002-12-01

    Population and industrial growth has resulted in intense demands on the quantity and quality of water resources worldwide. Moreover, climate change/variability is making a growing percentage of the earth's population vulnerable to extreme weather events (drought and flood). The 1996 Saguenay flood, 1997 Red River flood, the 1998 ice storm, and recent droughts in prairies are few examples of extreme weather events in Canada. Rising economic prosperity, growth in urban population, aging infrastructure, and a changing climate are increasing the vulnerability of Canadians to even more serious impacts. This growing threat can seriously undermine the social and economic viability of the country. Our ability to understand the impacts of climate change/variability on water quantity, quality, and its distribution in time and space can prepare us for sustainable management of this precious resource. The sustainability of water resources, over the medium to long-term, is critically dependent on the ability to manage (plan and operate) water resource systems under a more variable and perhaps warmer future climate. Studying the impacts of climate change/variability on water resources is complex and challenging. It is further complicated by the fact that impacts vary with time and are different at different locations. This study deals with the impacts of climate change/variability on water resources in a portion of the Red River Basin in Canada, both in terms of change in quantity and spatial-temporal distribution. A System Dynamics model is developed to describe the operation of the Shellmouth Reservoir located on the Red River in Canada. The climate data from Canadian Global Coupled Model, CGCM1 is used. The spatial system dynamics approach, based on distributed parameter control theory, is used to model the impacts of climate change/variability on water resources in time and space. A decision support system is developed to help reservoir operators and decision makers in

  4. DESYCO: a Decision Support System to provide climate services for coastal stakeholders dealing with climate change impacts.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torresan, S.; Gallina, V.; Giannini, V.; Rizzi, J.; Zabeo, A.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

    2012-04-01

    At the international level climate services are recognized as innovative tools aimed at providing and distributing climate data and information according to the needs of end-users. Furthermore, needs-based climate services are extremely effective to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. To date, climate services are mainly related to climate models that supply climate data (e.g. temperature, precipitations) at different spatial and time scales. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. DESYCO is a GIS-Decision Support System aimed at the integrated assessment of multiple climate change impacts on vulnerable coastal systems (e.g. beaches, river deltas, estuaries and lagoons, wetlands, agricultural and urban areas). It is an open source software that manages different input data (e.g. raster or shapefiles) coming from climate models (e.g. global and regional climate projections) and high resolution impact models (e.g. hydrodynamic, hydrological and biogeochemical simulations) in order to provide hazard, exposure, susceptibility, risk and damage maps for the identification and prioritization of hot-spot areas and to provide a basis for the definition of coastal adaptation and management strategies. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7) DESYCO is proposed as an helpful tool to bridge the gap between climate data and stakeholder needs and will be applied to the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy) in order to provide climate services for local authorities involved in coastal zone management. Accordingly, a first workshop was held in Venice (Italy) with coastal authorities, climate experts and climate change risk experts, in order to start an iterative exchange of information about the knowledge related to climate change, climate

  5. Evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator Chemistry-Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stone, K. A.; Morgenstern, O.; Karoly, D. J.; Klekociuk, A. R.; French, W. J. R.; Abraham, N. L.; Schofield, R.

    2015-07-01

    Chemistry climate models are important tools for addressing interactions of composition and climate in the Earth System. In particular, they are used for assessing the combined roles of greenhouse gases and ozone in Southern Hemisphere climate and weather. Here we present an evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator-Chemistry Climate Model, focusing on the Southern Hemisphere and the Australian region. This model is used for the Australian contribution to the international Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, which is soliciting hindcast, future projection and sensitivity simulations. The model simulates global total column ozone (TCO) distributions accurately, with a slight delay in the onset and recovery of springtime Antarctic ozone depletion, and consistently higher ozone values. However, October averaged Antarctic TCO from 1960 to 2010 show a similar amount of depletion compared to observations. A significant innovation is the evaluation of simulated vertical profiles of ozone and temperature with ozonesonde data from Australia, New Zealand and Antarctica from 38 to 90° S. Excess ozone concentrations (up to 26.4 % at Davis during winter) and stratospheric cold biases (up to 10.1 K at the South Pole) outside the period of perturbed springtime ozone depletion are seen during all seasons compared to ozonesondes. A disparity in the vertical location of ozone depletion is seen: centered around 100 hPa in ozonesonde data compared to above 50 hPa in the model. Analysis of vertical chlorine monoxide profiles indicates that colder Antarctic stratospheric temperatures (possibly due to reduced mid-latitude heat flux) are artificially enhancing polar stratospheric cloud formation at high altitudes. The models inability to explicitly simulated supercooled ternary solution may also explain the lack of depletion at lower altitudes. The simulated Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index compares well with ERA-Interim data. Accompanying these

  6. ARCAS (ACACIA Regional Climate-data Access System) -- a Web Access System for Climate Model Data Access, Visualization and Comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hakkarinen, C.; Brown, D.; Callahan, J.; hankin, S.; de Koningh, M.; Middleton-Link, D.; Wigley, T.

    2001-05-01

    A Web-based access system to climate model output data sets for intercomparison and analysis has been produced, using the NOAA-PMEL developed Live Access Server software as host server and Ferret as the data serving and visualization engine. Called ARCAS ("ACACIA Regional Climate-data Access System"), and publicly accessible at http://dataserver.ucar.edu/arcas, the site currently serves climate model outputs from runs of the NCAR Climate System Model for the 21st century, for Business as Usual and Stabilization of Greenhouse Gas Emission scenarios. Users can select, download, and graphically display single variables or comparisons of two variables from either or both of the CSM model runs, averaged for monthly, seasonal, or annual time resolutions. The time length of the averaging period, and the geographical domain for download and display, are fully selectable by the user. A variety of arithmetic operations on the data variables can be computed "on-the-fly", as defined by the user. Expansions of the user-selectable options for defining analysis options, and for accessing other DOD-compatible ("Distributed Ocean Data System-compatible") data sets, residing at locations other than the NCAR hardware server on which ARCAS operates, are planned for this year. These expansions are designed to allow users quick and easy-to-operate web-based access to the largest possible selection of climate model output data sets available throughout the world.

  7. Couplings between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry

    SciTech Connect

    Menon, Surabi; Denman, Kenneth L.; Brasseur , Guy; Chidthaisong, Amnat; Ciais, Philippe; Cox, Peter M.; Dickinson, Robert E.; Hauglustaine, Didier; Heinze, Christoph; Holland, Elisabeth; Jacob , Daniel; Lohmann, Ulrike; Ramachandran, Srikanthan; Leite da Silva Dias, Pedro; Wofsy, Steven C.; Zhang, Xiaoye

    2007-10-01

    The Earth's climate is determined by a number of complex connected physical, chemical and biological processes occurring in the atmosphere, land and ocean. The radiative properties of the atmosphere, a major controlling factor of the Earth's climate, are strongly affected by the biophysical state of the Earth's surface and by the atmospheric abundance of a variety of trace constituents. These constituents include long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) such as carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}) and nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O), as well as other radiatively active constituents such as ozone and different types of aerosol particles. The composition of the atmosphere is determined by processes such as natural and anthropogenic emissions of gases and aerosols, transport at a variety of scales, chemical and microphysical transformations, wet scavenging and surface uptake by the land and terrestrial ecosystems, and by the ocean and its ecosystems. These processes and, more generally the rates of biogeochemical cycling, are affected by climate change, and involve interactions between and within the different components of the Earth system. These interactions are generally nonlinear and may produce negative or positive feedbacks to the climate system. An important aspect of climate research is to identify potential feedbacks and assess if such feedbacks could produce large and undesired responses to perturbations resulting from human activities. Studies of past climate evolution on different time scales can elucidate mechanisms that could trigger nonlinear responses to external forcing. The purpose of this chapter is to identify the major biogeochemical feedbacks of significance to the climate system, and to assess current knowledge of their magnitudes and trends. Specifically, this chapter will examine the relationships between the physical climate system and the land surface, the carbon cycle, chemically reactive atmospheric gases and aerosol particles. It also

  8. A satellite view of aerosols in the climate system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kaufman, Yoram J.; Tanre, Didier; Boucher, Olivier

    2002-01-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols are intricately linked to the climate system and to the hydrologic cycle. The net effect of aerosols is to cool the climate system by reflecting sunlight. Depending on their composition, aerosols can also absorb sunlight in the atmosphere, further cooling the surface but warming the atmosphere in the process. These effects of aerosols on the temperature profile, along with the role of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei, impact the hydrologic cycle, through changes in cloud cover, cloud properties and precipitation. Unravelling these feedbacks is particularly difficult because aerosols take a multitude of shapes and forms, ranging from desert dust to urban pollution, and because aerosol concentrations vary strongly over time and space. To accurately study aerosol distribution and composition therefore requires continuous observations from satellites, networks of ground-based instruments and dedicated field experiments. Increases in aerosol concentration and changes in their composition, driven by industrialization and an expanding population, may adversely affect the Earth's climate and water supply.

  9. A satellite view of aerosols in the climate system.

    PubMed

    Kaufman, Yoram J; Tanré, Didier; Boucher, Olivier

    2002-09-12

    Anthropogenic aerosols are intricately linked to the climate system and to the hydrologic cycle. The net effect of aerosols is to cool the climate system by reflecting sunlight. Depending on their composition, aerosols can also absorb sunlight in the atmosphere, further cooling the surface but warming the atmosphere in the process. These effects of aerosols on the temperature profile, along with the role of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei, impact the hydrologic cycle, through changes in cloud cover, cloud properties and precipitation. Unravelling these feedbacks is particularly difficult because aerosols take a multitude of shapes and forms, ranging from desert dust to urban pollution, and because aerosol concentrations vary strongly over time and space. To accurately study aerosol distribution and composition therefore requires continuous observations from satellites, networks of ground-based instruments and dedicated field experiments. Increases in aerosol concentration and changes in their composition, driven by industrialization and an expanding population, may adversely affect the Earth's climate and water supply.

  10. Phase Synchronization in Coupled Complex Systems - From Neuroscience to Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurths, Juergen

    2001-03-01

    The phenomenon of phase synchronization, especially in weakly coupled complex systems will be explained. Next it will be discussed how to identify epochs of phase synchronization in noisy data. In the second part I will demonstrate the potential of this approach for some examples from natural systems; in particular for brain and muscle activity of Parkinsonian patients, cardio-respiratory interactions in humans and rats and for a chaotically forced climate system.

  11. A Standardized Evaluation System for Decadal Climate Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kadow, C.; Cubasch, U.

    2012-12-01

    The evaluation of decadal prediction systems is a scientific challenge as well as a technical challenge in the climate research. The major project MiKlip (www.fona-miklip.de) for medium-term climate prediction funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research in Germany (BMBF) has the aim to create a model system that can provide reliable decadal forecasts on climate and weather. The model system to be developed will be novel in several aspects, with great challenges for the methodology development. This concerns especially the determination of the initial conditions, the inclusion into the model of processes relevant to decadal predictions, the increase of the spatial resolution through regionalisation, the improvement or adjustment of statistical post-processing, and finally the synthesis and validation of the entire model system. Therefore, a standardized evaluation system will be part of the MiKlip system to validate it - developed by the project 'Integrated data and evaluation system for decadal scale prediction' (INTEGRATION). The presentation gives an overview of the different linkages of such a project, shows the different development stages and gives an outlook for users and possible end users in climate service. The technical interface combines all projects inside of MiKlip and invites them to participate in a common evaluation system. The system design and the validation strategy from a standalone tool in the beginning to a user friendly web based system using GRID technologies to an integrated part of the operational MiKlip system for industry and society will give the opportunity to enhance the MiKlip strategy. First results of different possibilities of such a system will be shown to present the scientific background through Taylor diagrams, ensemble skill scores and e.g. climatological means to show the usability and possibilities of MiKlip and the INTEGRATION project.

  12. Controls on the Archean climate system investigated with a global climate model.

    PubMed

    Wolf, E T; Toon, O B

    2014-03-01

    The most obvious means of resolving the faint young Sun paradox is to invoke large quantities of greenhouse gases, namely, CO2 and CH4. However, numerous changes to the Archean climate system have been suggested that may have yielded additional warming, thus easing the required greenhouse gas burden. Here, we use a three-dimensional climate model to examine some of the factors that controlled Archean climate. We examine changes to Earth's rotation rate, surface albedo, cloud properties, and total atmospheric pressure following proposals from the recent literature. While the effects of increased planetary rotation rate on surface temperature are insignificant, plausible changes to the surface albedo, cloud droplet number concentrations, and atmospheric nitrogen inventory may each impart global mean warming of 3-7 K. While none of these changes present a singular solution to the faint young Sun paradox, a combination can have a large impact on climate. Global mean surface temperatures at or above 288 K could easily have been maintained throughout the entirety of the Archean if plausible changes to clouds, surface albedo, and nitrogen content occurred.

  13. Associations between Climate Change and Natural Systems in Australia.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chambers, Lynda E.

    2006-02-01

    In the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report numerous studies of processes and species associated with regional temperature change were listed for the Northern Hemisphere (107 in North America, 458 in Europe, and 14 in Asia), but only a handful of studies for the Southern Hemisphere and, sadly, none for Australia were included. This article looks at the progress that Australia has made in addressing these knowledge gaps during the last three years. The article highlights the need for a national approach to the study of the associations between climate change and natural systems and suggests ways in which this could be achieved.

  14. Community Climate System Model (CCSM) Experiments and Output Data

    DOE Data Explorer

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) created the first version of the Community Climate Model (CCM) in 1983 as a global atmosphere model. It was improved in 1994 when NCAR, with support from the National Science Foundation (NSF), developed and incorporated a Climate System Model (CSM) that included atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice. As the capabilities of the model grew, so did interest in its applications and changes in how it would be managed. A workshop in 1996 set the future management structure, marked the beginning of the second phase of the model, a phase that included full participation of the scientific community, and also saw additional financial support, including support from the Department of Energy. In recognition of these changes, the model was renamed to the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). It began to function as a model with the interactions of land, sea, and air fully coupled, providing computer simulations of Earth's past climate, its present climate, and its possible future climate. The CCSM website at http://www2.cesm.ucar.edu/ describes some of the research that has been done since then: A 300-year run has been performed using the CSM, and results from this experiment have appeared in a special issue of theJournal of Climate, 11, June, 1998. A 125-year experiment has been carried out in which carbon dioxide was described to increase at 1% per year from its present concentration to approximately three times its present concentration. More recently, the Climate of the 20th Century experiment was run, with carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols prescribed to evolve according to our best knowledge from 1870 to the present. Three scenarios for the 21st century were developed: a "business as usual" experiment, in which greenhouse gases are assumed to increase with no economic constraints; an experiment using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Scenario A1; and a "policy

  15. The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

    1988-01-01

    A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

  16. The UC-LLNL Regional Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, N.L.; Kim, Jinwon

    1996-09-01

    The UC-LLNL Regional Climate System Model has been under development since 1991. The unique system simulates climate from the global scale down to the watershed catchment scale, and consists of data pre- and post- processors, and four model components. The four model components are (1) a mesoscale atmospheric simulation model, (2) a soil-plant-snow model, (3) a watershed hydrology-riverflow model, and (4) a suite of crop response models. The first three model components have been coupled, and the system includes two-way feedbacks between the soil-plant-snow model and the mesoscale atmospheric simulation model. This three-component version of RCSM has been tested, validated, and successfully used for operational quantitative precipitation forecasts and seasonal water resource studies over the southwestern US. We are currently implementation and validating the fourth component, the Decision Support system for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). A description of the UC-LLNL RCSM and some recent results are presented.

  17. Earth System Grid II, Turning Climate Datasets into Community Resources

    SciTech Connect

    Middleton, Don

    2006-08-01

    The Earth System Grid (ESG) II project, funded by the Department of Energy’s Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing program, has transformed climate data into community resources. ESG II has accomplished this goal by creating a virtual collaborative environment that links climate centers and users around the world to models and data via a computing Grid, which is based on the Department of Energy’s supercomputing resources and the Internet. Our project’s success stems from partnerships between climate researchers and computer scientists to advance basic and applied research in the terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanic sciences. By interfacing with other climate science projects, we have learned that commonly used methods to manage and remotely distribute data among related groups lack infrastructure and under-utilize existing technologies. Knowledge and expertise gained from ESG II have helped the climate community plan strategies to manage a rapidly growing data environment more effectively. Moreover, approaches and technologies developed under the ESG project have impacted datasimulation integration in other disciplines, such as astrophysics, molecular biology and materials science.

  18. Bioaerosols in the Earth system: Climate, health, and ecosystem interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fröhlich-Nowoisky, Janine; Kampf, Christopher J.; Weber, Bettina; Huffman, J. Alex; Pöhlker, Christopher; Andreae, Meinrat O.; Lang-Yona, Naama; Burrows, Susannah M.; Gunthe, Sachin S.; Elbert, Wolfgang; Su, Hang; Hoor, Peter; Thines, Eckhard; Hoffmann, Thorsten; Després, Viviane R.; Pöschl, Ulrich

    2016-12-01

    Aerosols of biological origin play a vital role in the Earth system, particularly in the interactions between atmosphere, biosphere, climate, and public health. Airborne bacteria, fungal spores, pollen, and other bioparticles are essential for the reproduction and spread of organisms across various ecosystems, and they can cause or enhance human, animal, and plant diseases. Moreover, they can serve as nuclei for cloud droplets, ice crystals, and precipitation, thus influencing the hydrological cycle and climate. The sources, abundance, composition, and effects of biological aerosols and the atmospheric microbiome are, however, not yet well characterized and constitute a large gap in the scientific understanding of the interaction and co-evolution of life and climate in the Earth system. This review presents an overview of the state of bioaerosol research, highlights recent advances, and outlines future perspectives in terms of bioaerosol identification, characterization, transport, and transformation processes, as well as their interactions with climate, health, and ecosystems, focusing on the role bioaerosols play in the Earth system.

  19. Regional Water System Vulnerabilities and Strengths for Unavoidable Climate Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gleick, P. H.; Palaniappan, M.; Christian-Smith, J.; Cooley, H.

    2011-12-01

    A wide range of options are available to help water systems prepare and adapt for unavoidable climate impacts, but these options vary depending on region, climatic conditions, economic status, and technical infrastructure in place. Drawing on case studies from the United States, India, and elsewhere, and from both urban and agricultural water systems, risks to water supply and quality are evaluated and summarized and categories of responses to help improve the effectiveness of adaptation policies are reviewed. Among the issues to be discussed are characteristics unique to developing country cities, such as the predominance of informal actors in the water sector. The formal, or government sector, which often exclusively manages water access and distribution in developed country cities, is only one among many players in the water sector in developing country cities. Informal access to water includes direct access by individuals through private groundwater systems, private water markets using vendors or sales of bottled water, and rainwater harvesting systems on individual homes. In this environment, with already existing pressures on water availability and use, the impacts of climate change on water will be strongly felt. This complicates planning for water supply and demand and risks increasing already prevalent water insecurity, especially for urban poor. In wealthier countries, any planning for water-related climate impacts tends to take the form of "business as usual" responses, such as efforts to expand supply with new infrastructure, manage demand through conservation programs, or simply put off addressing the problem to the next generation of managers and users. These approaches can be effective, but also risk missing unusual, non-linear, or threshold impacts. Examples of more informed and innovative efforts to substantively address climate change risks will be presented.

  20. Economic Value of an Advanced Climate Observing System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.

    2013-12-01

    Scientific missions increasingly need to show the monetary value of knowledge advances in budget-constrained environments. For example, suppose a climate science mission promises to yield decisive information on the rate of human caused global warming within a shortened time frame. How much should society be willing to pay for this knowledge today? The US interagency memo on the social cost of carbon (SCC) creates a standard yardstick for valuing damages from carbon emissions. We illustrate how value of information (VOI) calculations can be used to monetize the relative value of different climate observations. We follow the SCC, setting uncertainty in climate sensitivity to a truncated Roe and Baker (2007) distribution, setting discount rates of 2.5%, 3% and 5%, and using one of the Integrated Assessment Models sanctioned in SCC (DICE, Nordhaus 2008). We consider three mitigation scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), a moderate mitigation response DICE Optimal, and a strong response scenario (Stern). To illustrate results, suppose that we are on the BAU emissions scenario, and that we would switch to the Stern emissions path if we learn with 90% confidence that the decadal rate of temperature change reaches or exceeds 0.2 C/decade. Under the SCC assumptions, the year in which this happens, if it happens, depends on the uncertain climate sensitivity and on the emissions path. The year in which we become 90% certain that it happens depends, in addition, on our Earth observations, their accuracy, and their completeness. The basic concept is that more accurate observations can shorten the time for societal decisions. The economic value of the resulting averted damages depends on the discount rate, and the years in which the damages occur. A new climate observation would be economically justified if the net present value (NPV) of the difference in averted damages, relative to the existing systems, exceeds the NPV of the system costs. Our results (Cooke et al. 2013

  1. Precambrian evolution of the climate system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walker, James C. G.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents a new examination of the biogeochemical cycles of carbon as they may have changed between an Archean Earth deficient in land, sedimentary rocks, and biological activity, and a Proterozoic Earth much like the modern Earth, but lacking terrestrial life and carbonate-secreting plankton. Results of a numerical simulation of this transition show how increasing biological activity could have drawn down atmospheric carbon dioxide by extracting sedimentary organic carbon from the system. Increasing area of continents could further have drawn down carbon dioxide by encouraging the accumulation of carbonate sediments. An attempt to develop a numerical simulation of the carbon cycles of the Precambrian raises questions about sources and sinks of marine carbon and alkalinity on a world without continents. More information is needed about sea-floor weathering processes.

  2. NASA's Earth Observing System: The Transition from Climate Monitoring to Climate Change Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    King, Michael D.; Herring, David D.

    1998-01-01

    Earth's 4.5 billion year history is a study in change. Natural geological forces have been rearranging the surface features and climatic conditions of our planet since its beginning. There is scientific evidence that some of these natural changes have not only led to mass extinctions of species (e.g., dinosaurs), but have also severely impacted human civilizations. For instance, there is evidence that a relatively sudden climate change caused a 300-year drought that contributed to the downfall of Akkadia, one of the most powerful empires in the Middle-East region around 2200 BC. More recently, the "little ice age" from 1200-1400 AD forced the Vikings to abandon Greenland when temperatures there dropped by about 1.5 C, rendering it too difficult to grow enough crops to sustain the population. Today, there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have attained the magnitude of a geological force and are speeding up the rate of global change. For example, carbon dioxide levels have risen 30 percent since the industrial revolution and about 40 percent of the world's land surface has been transformed by humans. We don't understand the cause-and-effect relationships among Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere well enough to predict what, if any, impacts these rapid changes will have on future climate conditions. We need to make many measurements all over the world, over a long period of time, in order to assemble the information needed to construct accurate computer models that will enable us to forecast climate change. In 1988, the Earth System Sciences Committee, sponsored by NASA, issued a report calling for an integrated, long-term strategy for measuring the vital signs of Earth's climate system. The report urged that the measurements must all be intimately coupled with focused process studies, they must facilitate development of Earth system models, and they must be stored in an information system that ensures open access to consistent, long-term data

  3. Teaching climate change: A 16-year record of introducing undergraduates to the fundamentals of the climate system and its complexities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winckler, G.; Pfirman, S. L.; Hays, J. D.; Schlosser, P.; Ting, M.

    2011-12-01

    Responding to climate change challenges in the near and far future, will require a wide range of knowledge, skills and a sense of the complexities involved. Since 1995, Columbia University and Barnard College have offered an undergraduate class that strives to provide students with some of these skills. The 'Climate System' course is a component of the three-part 'Earth Environmental Systems' series and provides the fundamentals needed for understanding the Earth's climate system and its variability. Being designed both for science majors and non-science majors, the emphasis of the course is on basic physical explanations, rather than mathematical derivations of the laws that govern the climate system. The course includes lectures, labs and discussion. Laboratory exercises primarily explore the climate system using global datasets, augmented by hands-on activities. Course materials are available for public use at http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/ees/climate/camel_modules/ and http://ncseonline.org/climate/cms.cfm?id=3783. In this presentation we discuss the experiences, challenges and future demands of conveying the science of the Earth's Climate System and the risks facing the planet to a wide spectrum of undergraduate students, many of them without a background in the sciences. Using evaluation data we reflect how the course, the students, and the faculty have evolved over the past 16 years as the earth warmed, pressures for adaptation planning and mitigation measures increased, and public discourse became increasingly polarized.

  4. Climate balance of biogas upgrading systems

    SciTech Connect

    Pertl, A.; Mostbauer, P.; Obersteiner, G.

    2010-01-15

    One of the numerous applications of renewable energy is represented by the use of upgraded biogas where needed by feeding into the gas grid. The aim of the present study was to identify an upgrading scenario featuring minimum overall GHG emissions. The study was based on a life-cycle approach taking into account also GHG emissions resulting from plant cultivation to the process of energy conversion. For anaerobic digestion two substrates have been taken into account: (1) agricultural resources and (2) municipal organic waste. The study provides results for four different upgrading technologies including the BABIU (Bottom Ash for Biogas Upgrading) method. As the transport of bottom ash is a critical factor implicated in the BABIU-method, different transport distances and means of conveyance (lorry, train) have been considered. Furthermore, aspects including biogas compression and energy conversion in a combined heat and power plant were assessed. GHG emissions from a conventional energy supply system (natural gas) have been estimated as reference scenario. The main findings obtained underlined how the overall reduction of GHG emissions may be rather limited, for example for an agricultural context in which PSA-scenarios emit only 10% less greenhouse gases than the reference scenario. The BABIU-method constitutes an efficient upgrading method capable of attaining a high reduction of GHG emission by sequestration of CO{sub 2}.

  5. Does the public deserve free access to climate system science?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grigorov, Ivo

    2010-05-01

    Some time ago it was the lack of public access to medical research data that really stirred the issue and gave inertia for legislation and a new publishing model that puts tax payer-funded medical research in the hands of those who fund it. In today's age global climate change has become the biggest socio-economic challenge, and the same argument resonates: climate affects us all and the publicly-funded science quantifying it should be freely accessible to all stakeholders beyond academic research. Over the last few years the ‘Open Access' movement to remove as much as possible subscription, and other on-campus barriers to academic research has rapidly gathered pace, but despite significant progress, the climate system sciences are not among the leaders in providing full access to their publications and data. Beyond the ethical argument, there are proven and tangible benefits for the next generation of climate researchers to adapt the way their output is published. Through the means provided by ‘open access', both data and ideas can gain more visibility, use and citations for the authors, but also result in a more rapid exchange of knowledge and ideas, and ultimately progress towards a sought solution. The presentation will aim to stimulate discussion and seek progress on the following questions: Should free access to climate research (& data) be mandatory? What are the career benefits of using ‘open access' for young scientists? What means and methods should, or could, be incorporated into current European graduate training programmes in climate research, and possible ways forward?

  6. On Prediction and Predictability of the Arctic Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maslowski, W.; Clement Kinney, J.; Roberts, A.; Higgins, M.; Osinski, R.; Cassano, J. J.; Craig, A.; Gutowski, W. J.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Tulaczyk, S. M.; Zeng, X.

    2012-12-01

    Arctic sea ice is a key indicator of the state of Earth's climate because of both its sensitivity to warming and its role in amplifying climate change. However, the current system-level understanding and representation of critical arctic processes and feedbacks in state-of-the-art Earth System Models (EaSMs) is still inadequate. This becomes increasingly critical as the perennial and total summer sea ice cover continues its accelerated decline that started in the late 1990s. Growing evidence suggests that the shrinking Arctic ice pack affects pan-Arctic atmospheric and oceanic circulation, snow cover, the Greenland ice sheet, permafrost and vegetation. Such changes could have significant ramifications for global sea level, the global surface energy and moisture budget, atmospheric and oceanic circulations, geosphere-biosphere feedbacks, as well as affecting native coastal communities, and international commerce. We evaluate available results from CMIP5 models against limited observations for their skill in representing recent decadal variability of Arctic sea ice area, thickness, drift and export. We also intercompare results from CMIP5 models with selected CMIP3 models and a hierarchy of regional ice-ocean and fully coupled climate models to demonstrate possible gains or outstanding limitations in representing past and present climate variability in the Arctic. Some of the limitations we have diagnosed in the CMIP3 family of models include: northward oceanic heat fluxes and their interface with the atmosphere, distribution of sea ice area and thickness, variability of sea ice volume in the Arctic Ocean, and freshwater (both solid and liquid) export into the North Atlantic. We argue that the ability of global models to realistically reproduce the above processes affecting recent warming and sea ice melt in the Arctic Ocean distorts predictability of EaSMs and limits the accuracy of their future arctic and global climate predictions. To better understand the past

  7. Climate Considerations Of The Electricity Supply Systems In Industries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asset, Khabdullin; Zauresh, Khabdullina

    2014-12-01

    The study is focused on analysis of climate considerations of electricity supply systems in a pellet industry. The developed analysis model consists of two modules: statistical data of active power losses evaluation module and climate aspects evaluation module. The statistical data module is presented as a universal mathematical model of electrical systems and components of industrial load. It forms a basis for detailed accounting of power loss from the voltage levels. On the basis of the universal model, a set of programs is designed to perform the calculation and experimental research. It helps to obtain the statistical characteristics of the power losses and loads of the electricity supply systems and to define the nature of changes in these characteristics. Within the module, several methods and algorithms for calculating parameters of equivalent circuits of low- and high-voltage ADC and SD with a massive smooth rotor with laminated poles are developed. The climate aspects module includes an analysis of the experimental data of power supply system in pellet production. It allows identification of GHG emission reduction parameters: operation hours, type of electrical motors, values of load factor and deviation of standard value of voltage.

  8. Data management support for selected climate data sets using the climate data access system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reph, M. G.

    1983-01-01

    The functional capabilities of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Climate Data Access System (CDAS), an interactive data storage and retrieval system, and the archival data sets which this system manages are discussed. The CDAS manages several climate-related data sets, such as the First Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) Global Experiment (FGGE) Level 2-b and Level 3-a data tapes. CDAS data management support consists of three basic functions: (1) an inventory capability which allows users to search or update a disk-resident inventory describing the contents of each tape in a data set, (2) a capability to depict graphically the spatial coverage of a tape in a data set, and (3) a data set selection capability which allows users to extract portions of a data set using criteria such as time, location, and data source/parameter and output the data to tape, user terminal, or system printer. This report includes figures that illustrate menu displays and output listings for each CDAS function.

  9. The exponential eigenmodes of the carbon-climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raupach, M. R.

    2012-09-01

    Several basic ratios describing the carbon-climate system are observed to adopt relatively steady values. Examples include the CO2 airborne fraction (the fraction of the total anthropogenic CO2 emission flux that accumulates in the atmosphere) and the ratio T/QE of warming (T) to cumulative total CO2 emissions (QE). This paper explores the reason for such near-constancy in the past, and its likely limitations in future. The contemporary carbon-climate system is often approximated as a first-order linear system, for example in response-function descriptions. All such linear systems have exponential eigenfunctions in time (an eigenfunction being one that, if applied to the system as a forcing, produces a response of the same shape). This implies that, if the carbon-climate system is idealised as a linear system (Lin) forced by exponentially growing CO2 emissions (Exp), then all ratios among fluxes and perturbation state variables are constant. Important cases are the CO2 airborne fraction (AF), the cumulative airborne fraction (CAF), other CO2 partition fractions and cumulative partition fractions into land and ocean stores, the CO2 sink uptake rate (kS, the combined land and ocean CO2 sink flux per unit excess atmospheric CO2), and the ratio T/QE. Further, the AF and the CAF are equal. The Lin and Exp idealisations apply approximately (but not exactly) to the carbon-climate system in the period from the start of industrialisation (nominally 1750) to the present, consistent with the observed near-constancy of the AF, CAF and T/QE in this period. A nonlinear carbon-climate model is used to explore how the likely future breakdown of both the Lin and Exp idealisations will cause the AF, CAF and kS to depart significantly from constancy, in ways that depend on CO2 emissions scenarios. However, T/QE remains approximately constant in typical scenarios, because of compensating interactions between emissions trajectories, carbon-cycle dynamics and non-CO2 gases. This theory

  10. Urbanism, climate change and health: systems approaches to governance.

    PubMed

    Capon, Anthony G; Synnott, Emma S; Holliday, Sue

    2009-01-01

    Effective action on climate change health impacts and vulnerability will require systems approaches and integrated policy and planning responses from a range of government agencies. Similar responses are needed to address other complex problems, such as the obesity epidemic. Local government, with its focus on the governance of place, will have a key role in responding to these convergent agendas. Industry can also be part of the solution - indeed it must be, because it has a lead role in relevant sectors. Understanding the co-benefits for health of climate mitigation actions will strengthen the case for early action. There is a need for improved decision support tools to inform urban governance. These tools should be based on a systems approach and should incorporate a spatial perspective.

  11. Climate Change and Infrastructure, Urban Systems, and Vulnerabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Wilbanks, Thomas J; Fernandez, Steven J

    2014-01-01

    This Technical Report on Climate Change and Infrastructure, Urban Systems, and Vulnerabilities has been prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in support of the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). It is a summary of the currently existing knowledge base on its topic, nested within a broader framing of issues and questions that need further attention in the longer run. The report arrives at a number of assessment findings, each associated with an evaluation of the level of consensus on that issue within the expert community, the volume of evidence available to support that judgment, and the section of the report that provides an explanation for the finding. Cross-sectoral issues related to infrastructures and urban systems have not received a great deal of attention to date in research literatures in general and climate change assessments in particular. As a result, this technical report is breaking new ground as a component of climate change vulnerability and impact assessments in the U.S., which means that some of its assessment findings are rather speculative, more in the nature of propositions for further study than specific conclusions that are offered with a high level of confidence and research support. But it is a start in addressing questions that are of interest to many policymakers and stakeholders. A central theme of the report is that vulnerabilities and impacts are issues beyond physical infrastructures themselves. The concern is with the value of services provided by infrastructures, where the true consequences of impacts and disruptions involve not only the costs associated with the clean-up, repair, and/or replacement of affected infrastructures but also economic, social, and environmental effects as supply chains are disrupted, economic activities are suspended, and/or social well-being is threatened. Current knowledge indicates that vulnerability concerns tend to be focused on extreme weather events

  12. Modeling Feedbacks Between Water and Vegetation in the Climate System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, James R.; Russell, Gary L.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Not only is water essential for life on earth, but life itself affects the global hydrologic cycle and consequently the climate of the planet. Whether the global feedbacks between life and the hydrologic cycle tend to stabilize the climate system about some equilibrium level is difficult to assess. We use a global climate model to examine how the presence of vegetation can affect the hydrologic cycle in a particular region. A control for the present climate is compared with a model experiment in which the Sahara Desert is replaced by vegetation in the form of trees and shrubs common to the Sahel region. A second model experiment is designed to identify the separate roles of two different effects of vegetation, namely the modified albedo and the presence of roots that can extract moisture from deeper soil layers. The results show that the presence of vegetation leads to increases in precipitation and soil moisture in western Sahara. In eastern Sahara, the changes are less clear. The increase in soil moisture is greater when the desert albedo is replaced by the vegetation albedo than when both the vegetation albedo and roots are added. The effect of roots is to withdraw water from deeper layers during the dry season. One implication of this study is that the insertion of vegetation into the Sahara modifies the hydrologic cycle so that the vegetation is more likely to persist than initially.

  13. Power Grids and Climate Information: supporting transmission system operators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Felice, Matteo; Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco

    2015-04-01

    The activities of electricity transmission system operators (TSO) may be affected by weather conditions and for this reason the availability of accurate information about past and future states can be useful for power grids management. ENEA is supporting TERNA (Italian TSO) since 2012 providing them weather and climate information related to electricity demand and renewable energies management. The first task has been an assessment on the use of weather and climate information to predict electricity demand at short (1-5 days) and long (1-3 months) time scales. The second task was focused on the possibility to estimate and predict the electricity production coming from photovoltaic (PV) using different data sources (satellite, reanalysis, weather stations, climate models). The outcome of this collaboration has been two-fold: i) we had the occasion to evaluate the "quality" of weather/climate information considering power grid operational aspects and ii) more challenging questions, not considered at the beginning, have been raised, providing further interesting research goals.

  14. The Role of the Nitrogen Cycle in the Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holland, E. A.

    2007-12-01

    The Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was released earlier this year and has generated world-wide attention This was the first Working Group 1 report to take an explicit look at the global nitrogen cycle and how changes in the N cycle have impacted the climate system. The Working Group 1 report states the following: "Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. It is very likely that the increase in the combined radiative forcing from carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide has been at least six times faster between1960 to 1999 than over any 40 year period during the two 50 millennia prior to the year 1800. " Changes to the cycling of reactive nitrogen, not the stable atmospheric N2, play an important role in the climate system. The most obvious is the rise in the atmospheric abundance of nitrous oxide since 1750. Nitrous oxide is an important atmospheric tracer that allows us to track global changes to the nitrogen cycle. Nitrogen plays a role in many other aspects of the climate system that are not immediately obvious. Biologically available nitrogen is required for carbon uptake which helps fuel both oceanic and terrestrial carbon uptake. Without the nitrogen fueled carbon uptake, the air-borne fraction of the carbon dioxide released from fossil fuel combustion will increase according to the first coupled climate, carbon and nitrogen simulations done with the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM). NOx (NO+NO2) is one of the necessary precursors for ozone formation that has increased more than thirty eight percent since the pre-industrial era. Understanding the role of sources other than fossil fuel emissions, including soil NOx emissions and lightning formation of NOx are important to understanding ozone formation. Recent

  15. The Aerosol-Monsoon Climate System of Asia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kyu-Myong, Kim

    2012-01-01

    In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air-pollution are worsening due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants stemming from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash flood or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human lives, and damages in crop and properties with devastating societal impacts on Asian countries. Historically, air-pollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However a growing number of recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically intertwined and need to be studied jointly. Because of complexity of the dynamics of the monsoon systems, aerosol impacts on monsoons and vice versa must be studied and understood in the context of aerosol forcing in relationship to changes in fundamental driving forces of the monsoon climate system (e.g. sea surface temperature, land-sea contrast etc.) on time scales from intraseasonal variability (weeks) to climate change ( multi-decades). Indeed, because of the large contributions of aerosols to the global and regional energy balance of the atmosphere and earth surface, and possible effects of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation, a better understanding of the response to climate change in Asian monsoon regions requires that aerosols be considered as an integral component of a fully coupled aerosol-monsoon system on all time scales. In this paper, using observations and results from climate modeling, we will discuss the coherent variability of the coupled aerosol-monsoon climate system in South Asia and East Asia, including aerosol distribution and types, with respect to rainfall, moisture, winds, land-sea thermal contrast, heat sources and sink distributions in the atmosphere in seasonal, interannual to climate change time scales. We will show examples of how elevated

  16. Integrated Information Systems Across the Weather-Climate Continuum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulwarty, R. S.; Higgins, W.; Nierenberg, C.; Trtanj, J.

    2015-12-01

    The increasing demand for well-organized (integrated) end-to-end research-based information has been highlighted in several National Academy studies, in IPCC Reports (such as the SREX and Fifth Assessment) and by public and private constituents. Such information constitutes a significant component of the "environmental intelligence" needed to address myriad societal needs for early warning and resilience across the weather-climate continuum. The next generation of climate research in service to the nation requires an even more visible, authoritative and robust commitment to scientific integration in support of adaptive information systems that address emergent risks and inform longer-term resilience strategies. A proven mechanism for resourcing such requirements is to demonstrate vision, purpose, support, connection to constituencies, and prototypes of desired capabilities. In this presentation we will discuss efforts at NOAA, and elsewhere, that: Improve information on how changes in extremes in key phenomena such as drought, floods, and heat stress impact management decisions for resource planning and disaster risk reduction Develop regional integrated information systems to address these emergent challenges, that integrate observations, monitoring and prediction, impacts assessments and scenarios, preparedness and adaptation, and coordination and capacity-building. Such systems, as illustrated through efforts such as NIDIS, have strengthened the integration across the foundational research enterprise (through for instance, RISAs, Modeling Analysis Predictions and Projections) by increasing agility for responding to emergent risks. The recently- initiated Climate Services Information System, in support of the WMO Global Framework for Climate Services draws on the above models and will be introduced during the presentation.

  17. Does vertebroplasty affect radiation dose distribution?: comparison of spatial dose distributions in a cement-injected vertebra as calculated by treatment planning system and actual spatial dose distribution.

    PubMed

    Komemushi, Atsushi; Tanigawa, Noboru; Kariya, Shuji; Yagi, Rie; Nakatani, Miyuki; Suzuki, Satoshi; Sano, Akira; Ikeda, Koshi; Utsunomiya, Keita; Harima, Yoko; Sawada, Satoshi

    2012-01-01

    Purpose. To assess differences in dose distribution of a vertebral body injected with bone cement as calculated by radiation treatment planning system (RTPS) and actual dose distribution. Methods. We prepared two water-equivalent phantoms with cement, and the other two phantoms without cement. The bulk density of the bone cement was imported into RTPS to reduce error from high CT values. A dose distribution map for the phantoms with and without cement was calculated using RTPS with clinical setting and with the bulk density importing. Actual dose distribution was measured by the film density. Dose distribution as calculated by RTPS was compared to the dose distribution measured by the film dosimetry. Results. For the phantom with cement, dose distribution was distorted for the areas corresponding to inside the cement and on the ventral side of the cement. However, dose distribution based on film dosimetry was undistorted behind the cement and dose increases were seen inside cement and around the cement. With the equivalent phantom with bone cement, differences were seen between dose distribution calculated by RTPS and that measured by the film dosimetry. Conclusion. The dose distribution of an area containing bone cement calculated using RTPS differs from actual dose distribution.

  18. Linkages between the Urban Environment and Earth's Climate System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

    2003-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025 60% of the world s population will live in cities (UNFP, 1999). Though urban areas are local in scale, human activity in urban environments has impacts at local, to global scale by changing atmospheric composition; impacting components of the water cycle; and modifying the carbon cycle 2nd ecosystems. For example, urban dwellers are undoubtedly familiar with "high" ozone pollution days, flash flooding in city streets, or heat stress on summer days. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s weather, oceans, and land work together and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. This paper highlights some of the major and current issues involving interactions between urban environments and the Earth's climate system. It also captures some of the most current thinking and findings of the authors and key experts in the field.

  19. Chemistry and Climate in Asia - An Earth System Modeling Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barth, M. C.; Emmons, L. K.; Massie, S. T.; Pfister, G.; Romero Lankao, P.; Lamarque, J.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2011-12-01

    Asia is one of the most highly populated and economically dynamic regions in the world, with much of the population located in growing mega-cities. It is a region with significant emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols and other pollutants, which pose high health risks to urban populations. Emissions of these aerosols and gases increased drastically over the last decade due to economic growth and urbanization and are expected to rise further in the near future. As such, the continent plays a role in influencing climate change via its effluent of aerosols and gaseous pollutants. Asia is also susceptible to adverse climate change through interactions between aerosols and clouds, which potentially can have serious implications for freshwater resources. We are developing an integrated inter-disciplinary program to focus on Asia, its climate, air quality, and impact on humans that will include connections with hydrology, ecosystems, extreme weather events, and human health. The primary goal of this project is to create a team to identify key scientific questions and establish networks of specialists to create a plan for future studies to address these questions. A second goal is to establish research facilities and a framework for investigating chemistry and climate over Asia. These facilities include producing high resolution Earth System Model simulations that have been evaluated with meteorological and chemical measurements, producing high-resolution emission inventories, analyzing satellite data, and analyzing the vulnerability of humans to air quality and extreme natural events. In this presentation we will describe in more detail these activities and discuss a future workshop on the impact of chemistry in climate on air quality and human health.

  20. Climate change adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Griffith, Brad; Scott, J. Michael; Adamcik, Robert S.; Ashe, Daniel; Czech, Brian; Fischman, Robert; Gonzalez, Patrick; Lawler, Joshua J.; McGuire, A. David; Pidgorna, Anna

    2009-01-01

    Since its establishment in 1903, the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) has grown to 635 units and 37 Wetland Management Districts in the United States and its territories. These units provide the seasonal habitats necessary for migratory waterfowl and other species to complete their annual life cycles. Habitat conversion and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution, and competition for water have stressed refuges for decades, but the interaction of climate change with these stressors presents the most recent, pervasive, and complex conservation challenge to the NWRS. Geographic isolation and small unit size compound the challenges of climate change, but a combined emphasis on species that refuges were established to conserve and on maintaining biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health provides the NWRS with substantial latitude to respond. Individual symptoms of climate change can be addressed at the refuge level, but the strategic response requires system-wide planning. A dynamic vision of the NWRS in a changing climate, an explicit national strategic plan to implement that vision, and an assessment of representation, redundancy, size, and total number of units in relation to conservation targets are the first steps toward adaptation. This adaptation must begin immediately and be built on more closely integrated research and management. Rigorous projections of possible futures are required to facilitate adaptation to change. Furthermore, the effective conservation footprint of the NWRS must be increased through land acquisition, creative partnerships, and educational programs in order for the NWRS to meet its legal mandate to maintain the biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the system and the species and ecosystems that it supports.

  1. Climate change adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System.

    PubMed

    Griffith, Brad; Scott, J Michael; Adamcik, Robert; Ashe, Daniel; Czech, Brian; Fischman, Robert; Gonzalez, Patrick; Lawler, Joshua; McGuire, A David; Pidgorna, Anna

    2009-12-01

    Since its establishment in 1903, the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) has grown to 635 units and 37 Wetland Management Districts in the United States and its territories. These units provide the seasonal habitats necessary for migratory waterfowl and other species to complete their annual life cycles. Habitat conversion and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution, and competition for water have stressed refuges for decades, but the interaction of climate change with these stressors presents the most recent, pervasive, and complex conservation challenge to the NWRS. Geographic isolation and small unit size compound the challenges of climate change, but a combined emphasis on species that refuges were established to conserve and on maintaining biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health provides the NWRS with substantial latitude to respond. Individual symptoms of climate change can be addressed at the refuge level, but the strategic response requires system-wide planning. A dynamic vision of the NWRS in a changing climate, an explicit national strategic plan to implement that vision, and an assessment of representation, redundancy, size, and total number of units in relation to conservation targets are the first steps toward adaptation. This adaptation must begin immediately and be built on more closely integrated research and management. Rigorous projections of possible futures are required to facilitate adaptation to change. Furthermore, the effective conservation footprint of the NWRS must be increased through land acquisition, creative partnerships, and educational programs in order for the NWRS to meet its legal mandate to maintain the biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the system and the species and ecosystems that it supports.

  2. Actualizing panarchy within environmental policy: mechanisms for tweaking institutional hierarchies to mimic the social-ecological systems they manage

    EPA Science Inventory

    Environmental law plays a key role in shaping approaches to sustainability. In particular, the role of legal instruments, institutions, and the relationship of law to the inherent variability in social-ecological systems is critical. Sustainability likely must occur via the insti...

  3. Can Schools Be Autonomous in a Centralised Educational System?: On Formal and Actual School Autonomy in the Italian Context

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Agasisti, Tommaso; Catalano, Giuseppe; Sibiano, Piergiacomo

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the difference between formal and real school autonomy in the Italian educational system. The Italian case is characterised by low levels of school autonomy. It is interesting to consider whether heterogeneity of patterns is possible in this context. A description of this heterogeneity is provided…

  4. Pre-Service and In-Service Teachers' Perceptions toward White Board System Prior to Actual Experience

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Park, Ju

    2014-01-01

    Using sample of survey data by pre-service and in-service teachers attending at a regional campus, this study examined how undergraduate and graduate students, in education major, perceived interactive white boards (IWB), and described implications of how the system can be used effectively, based on student-centered pedagogy. Although the…

  5. Effect of long-term actual spaceflight on the expression of key genes encoding serotonin and dopamine system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popova, Nina; Shenkman, Boris; Naumenko, Vladimir; Kulikov, Alexander; Kondaurova, Elena; Tsybko, Anton; Kulikova, Elisabeth; Krasnov, I. B.; Bazhenova, Ekaterina; Sinyakova, Nadezhda

    The effect of long-term spaceflight on the central nervous system represents important but yet undeveloped problem. The aim of our work was to study the effect of 30-days spaceflight of mice on Russian biosatellite BION-M1 on the expression in the brain regions of key genes of a) serotonin (5-HT) system (main enzymes in 5-HT metabolism - tryptophan hydroxylase-2 (TPH-2), monoamine oxydase A (MAO A), 5-HT1A, 5-HT2A and 5-HT3 receptors); b) pivotal enzymes in DA metabolism (tyrosine hydroxylase, COMT, MAO A, MAO B) and D1, D2 receptors. Decreased expression of genes encoding the 5-HT catabolism (MAO A) and 5-HT2A receptor in some brain regions was shown. There were no differences between “spaceflight” and control mice in the expression of TPH-2 and 5-HT1A, 5-HT3 receptor genes. Significant changes were found in genetic control of DA system. Long-term spaceflight decreased the expression of genes encoding the enzyme in DA synthesis (tyrosine hydroxylase in s.nigra), DA metabolism (MAO B in the midbrain and COMT in the striatum), and D1 receptor in hypothalamus. These data suggested that 1) microgravity affected genetic control of 5-HT and especially the nigrostriatal DA system implicated in the central regulation of muscular tonus and movement, 2) the decrease in the expression of genes encoding key enzyme in DA synthesis, DA degradation and D1 receptor contributes to the movement impairment and dyskinesia produced by the spaceflight. The study was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research grant № 14-04-00173.

  6. Climate Outreach Using Regional Coastal Ocean Observing System Portals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, D. M.; Hernandez, D. L.; Wakely, A.; Bochenek, R. J.; Bickel, A.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal oceans are dynamic, changing environments affected by processes ranging from seconds to millennia. On the east and west coast of the U.S., regional observing systems have deployed and sustained a remarkable diverse array of observing tools and sensors. Data portals visualize and provide access to real-time sensor networks. Portals have emerged as an interactive tool for educators to help students explore and understand climate. Bringing data portals to outreach events, into classrooms, and onto tablets and smartphones enables educators to address topics and phenomena happening right now. For example at the 2015 Charleston Science Technology Engineering and Math (STEM) Festival, visitors navigated the SECOORA (Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing regional Association) data portal to view the real-time marine meteorological conditions off South Carolina. Map-based entry points provide an intuitive interface for most students, an array of time series and other visualizations depict many of the essential principles of climate science manifest in the coastal zone, and data down-load/ extract options provide access to the data and documentation for further inquiry by advanced users. Beyond the exposition of climate principles, the portal experience reveals remarkable technologies in action and shows how the observing system is enabled by the activity of many different partners.

  7. Climate Ocean Modeling on a Beowulf Class System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cheng, B. N.; Chao, Y.; Wang, P.; Bondarenko, M.

    2000-01-01

    With the growing power and shrinking cost of personal computers. the availability of fast ethernet interconnections, and public domain software packages, it is now possible to combine them to build desktop parallel computers (named Beowulf or PC clusters) at a fraction of what it would cost to buy systems of comparable power front supercomputer companies. This led as to build and assemble our own sys tem. specifically for climate ocean modeling. In this article, we present our experience with such a system, discuss its network performance, and provide some performance comparison data with both HP SPP2000 and Cray T3E for an ocean Model used in present-day oceanographic research.

  8. Parallelizing Climate Data Management System, version 3 (CDMS3)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nadeau, D.; Williams, D. N.; Painter, J.; Doutriaux, C.

    2015-12-01

    The Climate Data Management System is an object-oriented data management system, specialized for organizing multidimensional, gridded data used in climate analyses for data observation and simulation. The basic unit of computation in CDMS3 is the variable, which consist of a multidimensional array that represents climate information in four dimensions corresponding to: time, pressure levels, latitudes, and longitudes. As model become more precise in their computation, the volume of data generated becomes bigger and difficult to handle due to the limit of computational resources. Model today can produce data a time frequency of one hourly, three hourly, or six hourly for spatial footprint close to satellite data used run models. The amount of time for scientists to analyze the data and retrieve useful information is more and more unmanageable. Parallelizing libraries such as CMDS3 would ease the burden of working with such big datasets. Multiple approaches of parallelizing are possible. The most obvious one is embarrassingly parallel or pleasingly parallel programming where each computer node processes one file at a time. A more challenging approach is to send a piece of the data to each node for computation and each node will save the results at its right place in a file as a slab of data. This is possible with Hierarchical Data Format 5 (HDF5) using the Message Passing Interface (MPI). A final approach would be the use of Open Multi-Processing API (OpenMP) where a master thread is split in multiple threads for different sections of the main code. Each method has its advantages and disadvantages. This poster bring to light each benefit of these methods and seek to find an optimal solution to compute climate data analyses in a efficient fashion using one or a mixtures of these parallelized methods.

  9. Nervous System of Periplaneta americana Cockroach as a Model in Toxinological Studies: A Short Historical and Actual View.

    PubMed

    Stankiewicz, Maria; Dąbrowski, Marcin; de Lima, Maria Elena

    2012-01-01

    Nervous system of Periplaneta americana cockroach is used in a wide range of pharmacological studies, including electrophysiological techniques. This paper presents its role as a preparation in the development of toxinological studies in the following electrophysiological methods: double-oil-gap technique on isolated giant axon, patch-clamp on DUM (dorsal unpaired median) neurons, microelectrode technique in situ conditions on axon in connective and DUM neurons in ganglion, and single-fiber oil-gap technique on last abdominal ganglion synapse. At the end the application of cockroach synaptosomal preparation is mentioned.

  10. Nervous System of Periplaneta americana Cockroach as a Model in Toxinological Studies: A Short Historical and Actual View

    PubMed Central

    Stankiewicz, Maria; Dąbrowski, Marcin; de Lima, Maria Elena

    2012-01-01

    Nervous system of Periplaneta americana cockroach is used in a wide range of pharmacological studies, including electrophysiological techniques. This paper presents its role as a preparation in the development of toxinological studies in the following electrophysiological methods: double-oil-gap technique on isolated giant axon, patch-clamp on DUM (dorsal unpaired median) neurons, microelectrode technique in situ conditions on axon in connective and DUM neurons in ganglion, and single-fiber oil-gap technique on last abdominal ganglion synapse. At the end the application of cockroach synaptosomal preparation is mentioned. PMID:22666245

  11. Intersects between Land, Energy, Water and the Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hibbard, K. A.; Skaggs, R.; Wilson, T.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change affects water, and land resources, and with growing human activity, each of these sectors relies increasingly on the others for critical resources. Events such as drought across the South Central U.S. during 2011 demonstrate that climatic impacts within each of these sectors can cascade through interactions between sectors. Energy, water, and land resources are each vulnerable to impacts on either of the other two sectors. For example, energy systems inherently require land and water. Increased electricity demands to contend with climate change can impose additional burdens on overly subscribed water resources. Within this environment, energy systems compete for water with agriculture, human consumption, and other needs. In turn, climate driven changes in landscape attributes and land use affect water quality and availability as well as energy demands. Diminishing water quality and availability impose additional demands for energy to access and purify water, and for land to store and distribute water. In some situations, interactions between water, energy, and land resources make options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions vulnerable to climate change. Energy options such as solar power or biofuel use can reduce net greenhouse gas emissions as well as U.S. dependence on foreign resources. As a result, the U.S. is expanding renewable energy systems. Advanced technology such as carbon dioxide capture with biofuels may offer a means of removing CO2 from the atmosphere. But as with fossil fuels, renewable energy sources can impose significant demands for water and land. For example, solar power mayrequire significant land to site facilities and water for cooling or to produce steam. Raising crops to produce biofuels uses arable land and water that might otherwise be available for food production. Thus, warmer and drier climate can compromise these renewable energy resources, and drought can stress water supplies creating competition between energy

  12. Climate-based health monitoring systems for eco-climatic conditions associated with infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Pinzon, E; Wilson, J M; Tucker, C J

    2005-09-01

    Despite a century of confidence and optimism in modern medicine and technology inspired by their often successful prevention and control efforts, infectious diseases remain an omnipresent, conspicuous major challenge to public health. Effective detection and control of infectious diseases require predictive and proactive efficient methods that provide early warning of an epidemic activity. Of particular relevance to these efforts is linking information at the landscape and coarser scales to data at the scale of the epidemic activity. In recent years, landscape epidemiology has used satellite remote sensing and geographic information systems as the technology capable of providing, from local to global scales, spatial and temporal climatic patterns that may influence the intensity of a vector-borne disease and predicts risk conditions associated with an epidemic. This article provides a condensed, and selective look at classical material and recent research about remote sensing and GIS (geographic information system) applications in public health.

  13. Resentment of paternalism as system change sentiment: hostile sexism toward men and actual behavior in the 2008 U.S. presidential election.

    PubMed

    Tate, Charlotte Chuck

    2014-01-01

    Taking inspiration from Glick and colleagues (2004), this study tested the idea that resentment of paternalism (which is part of the hostile sexism toward men construct) might approximate desire for system change by correlating this variable with actual behavior associated with system change in a single culture. Specifically, voting behavior in the 2008 U.S. presidential election was predicted from political party affiliation, measures of hostile and benevolent sexism toward both women and men, and egalitarian racial attitudes using a U.S. college student sample. Results indicated that the only significant predictors of voting behavior were political party affiliation, resentment of paternalism, and egalitarian racial attitudes. Higher levels of resentment of paternalism were in fact associated with voting for the ticket that represented system change-holding the other predictors constant.

  14. Development of an Evaluation System for Vertical Vibration of Railway Vehicles with Field-Portable Actuators (2nd Report, Excitation Tests of an Actual Commuter Vehicle)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takigami, Tadao; Tomioka, Takahiro

    Bending vibration characteristics of railway vehicles have been investigated in general under excitation tests, in which a carbody was directly excited by a shaker. It is however very difficult with their results to evaluate the ride quality of passengers under conditions that the vehicle runs on a certain track. The authors are therefore developing an evaluation system for vertical vibration of railway vehicles. This system consists of an excitation system equipped with linear actuators, the elastic supporting device installed between wheels and rails, and analytical techniques to estimate the power spectral density (PSD) and the ride quality level (LT) which feature the ride quality. In this paper, we describe the excitation tests performed using an actual commuter car and the estimated PSD and LT are compared with what substantially measured under the running conditions.

  15. Atmospheric planetary boundary layer feedback in climate system and triggering of climate change at high latitudes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esau, I.; Zilitinkevich, S.

    2009-04-01

    Recent publications have revealed that modern, state-of-the-art climate-change models (CCMs) are not sensitive enough to reproduce some fine features of the observed changes in the surface air temperature (SAT) especially at high latitudes. We propose that this problem results from inaccurate representation of the very shallow long-lived stable (LS) and conventionally neutral (CN) atmospheric planetary boundary layers (PBLs) typical of high latitudes, especially of Polar regions. LS and CN PBLs, not yet included in the context of climate modelling, are almost an order of magnitude shallower than mid-latitudinal nocturnal stable (NS) and truly neutral (TN) PBLs, which are the only concern of the traditional theory of stable PBLs. In is only natural that factually observed shallow PBLs respond to thermal impacts (e.g. to the changes in the surface heat balance) much stronger than much deeper PBLs reproduced by the current PBL schemes. In this paper we investigate analytically the PBL feedback in climate system for all known kinds of PBL: stable (distinguishing between NS and LS), neutral (distinguishing between TN and CN) and also convective). Besides very high sensitivity of LS PBLs, quite consistent with the observed variability in SAT, our analyses reveal that in some specific conditions global warming could cause "strange cases" of local cooling. We also obtained analytically that the daily minimum temperatures are more sensitive to the global warming than the daily maximum temperatures, which, at least partially, explains such observed phenomena as asymmetry in the diurnal temperature trends and almost global reduction of the diurnal temperature range.

  16. The Course of Actualization

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Smet, Hendrik

    2012-01-01

    Actualization is traditionally seen as the process following syntactic reanalysis whereby an item's new syntactic status manifests itself in new syntactic behavior. The process is gradual in that some new uses of the reanalyzed item appear earlier or more readily than others. This article accounts for the order in which new uses appear during…

  17. Predictability of the Seasonal Climate Associated with ENSO in NCEP Climate Forecast System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Q.

    2005-05-01

    The predictability of seasonal climate associated with ENSO is studied for NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) 23-year retrospective forecasts. Warm-minus-cold composites of the lead 1-6 month sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies show an ENSO-like horse-shoes pattern in the tropical Pacific, comparable with observation. There is a corresponding increased precipitation band along the equator near the dateline extending eastward to the South American coast, as well as the less precipitation over the Maritime Continents and off-equatorial western Pacific. Extended empirical orthogonal function (EEOF) analysis of the SST anomaly recovers ENSO -like dominant mode in the tropics for all seasons. Identification of patterns that optimize the signal-to-noise ratio is obtained by linear regression of the ensemble means on the principal component (PC) time series of SST. The optimized height patterns for boreal winter and spring are similar, although the winter response over the northern extratropics is somewhat weaker. Some subtle changes in amplitude are found in difference of leading initial conditions. The signal-to-noise ratio is significantly greater than unity in the Tropics (all seasons), the northern Pacific and continental North America subtropics (boreal winter and spring), and the southern Pacific subtropics (boreal fall).

  18. A New Paradigm for Assessing the Role of Agriculture in the Climate System and in Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pielke, Roger A., Sr.; Adegoke, Jimmy O.; Chase, Thomas N.; Marshall, Curtis H.; Matsui, Toshihisa; Niyogi, Dev

    2007-01-01

    This paper discusses the diverse climate forcings that impact agricultural systems, and contrasts the current paradigm of using global models downscaled to agricultural areas (a top-down approach) with a new paradigm that first assesses the vulnerability of agricultural activities to the spectrum of environmental risk including climate (a bottom-up approach). To illustrate the wide spectrum of climate forcings, regional climate forcings are presented including land-use/land-cover change and the influence of aerosols on radiative and biogeochemical fluxes and cloud/precipitation processes, as well as how these effects can be teleconnected globally. Examples are presented of the vulnerability perspective, along with a small survey of the perceived drought impacts in a local area, in which a wide range of impacts for the same precipitation deficits are found. This example illustrates why agricultural assessments of risk to climate change and variability and of other environmental risks should start with a bottom-up perspective.

  19. Climatic controls on arid continental basin margin systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gough, Amy; Clarke, Stuart; Richards, Philip; Milodowski, Antoni

    2016-04-01

    Alluvial fans are both dominant and long-lived within continental basin margin systems. As a result, they commonly interact with a variety of depositional systems that exist at different times in the distal extent of the basin as the basin evolves. The deposits of the distal basin often cycle between those with the potential to act as good aquifers and those with the potential to act as good aquitards. The interactions between the distal deposits and the basin margin fans can have a significant impact upon basin-scale fluid flow. The fans themselves are commonly considered as relatively homogeneous, but their sedimentology is controlled by a variety of factors, including: 1) differing depositional mechanisms; 2) localised autocyclic controls; 3) geometrical and temporal interactions with deposits of the basin centre; and, 4) long-term allocyclic climatic variations. This work examines the basin margin systems of the Cutler Group sediments of the Paradox Basin, western U.S.A and presents generalised facies models for the Cutler Group alluvial fans as well as for the zone of interaction between these fans and the contemporaneous environments in the basin centre, at a variety of scales. Small-scale controls on deposition include climate, tectonics, base level and sediment supply. It has been ascertained that long-term climatic alterations were the main control on these depositional systems. Models have been constructed to highlight how both long-term and short-term alterations in the climatic regime can affect the sedimentation in the basin. These models can be applied to better understand similar, but poorly exposed, alluvial fan deposits. The alluvial fans of the Brockram Facies, northern England form part of a once-proposed site for low-level nuclear waste decommissioning. As such, it is important to understand the sedimentology, three-dimensional geometry, and the proposed connectivity of the deposits from the perspective of basin-scale fluid flow. The developed

  20. Assessment of climate change effects on Canada's National Park system.

    PubMed

    Suffling, Roger; Scott, Daniel

    2002-03-01

    To estimate the magnitude of climate change anticipated for Canada's 38 National Parks (NPs) and Park Reserves, seasonal temperature and precipitation scenarios were constructed for 2050 and 2090 using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled model (CGCM1). For each park, we assessed impacts on physical systems, species, ecosystems and people. Important, widespread changes relate to marine and freshwater hydrology, glacial balance, waning permafrost, increased natural disturbance, shorter ice season, northern and upward altitudinal species and biome shifts, and changed visitation patterns. Other changes are regional (e.g., combined East coast subsidence and sea level rise increase coastal erosion and deposition, whereas, on the Pacific coast, tectonic uplift negates sea level rise). Further predictions concern individual parks (e.g., Unique fens of Bruce Peninsular NP will migrate lakewards with lowered water levels, but structural regulation of Lake Huron for navigation and power generation would destroy the fens). Knowledge gaps are the most important findings. For example: we could not form conclusions about glacial mass balance, or its effects on rivers and fjords. Likewise, for the East Coast Labrador Current we could neither estimate temperature and salinity effects of extra iceberg formation, nor the further effects on marine food chains, and breeding park seabirds. We recommend 1) Research on specific large knowledge gaps; 2) Climate change information exchange with protected area agencies in other northern countries; and 3) incorporating climate uncertainty into park plans and management. We discuss options for a new park management philosophy in the face of massive change and uncertainty.

  1. Data Visualization and Analysis for Climate Studies using NASA Giovanni Online System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rui, Hualan; Leptoukh, Gregory; Lloyd, Steven

    2008-01-01

    With many global earth observation systems and missions focused on climate systems and the associated large volumes of observational data available for exploring and explaining how climate is changing and why, there is an urgent need for climate services. Giovanni, the NASA GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization ANd ANalysis Infrastructure, is a simple to use yet powerful tool for analysing these data for research on global warming and climate change, as well as for applications to weather. air quality, agriculture, and water resources,

  2. Continental Heat Gain in the Global Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smerdon, J. E.; Beltrami, H.; Pollack, H. N.; Huang, S.

    2001-12-01

    Observed increases in 20th century surface-air temperatures are one consequence of a net energy flux into all major components of the Earth climate system including the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and lithosphere. Levitus et al. [2001] have estimated the heat gained by the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere as 18.2x1022 J, 6.6x1021 J, and 8.1x1021 J, respectively, over the past half-century. However the heat gain of the lithosphere via a heat flux across the solid surface of the continents (30% of the Earth's surface) was not addressed in the Levitus analysis. Here we calculate that final component of Earth's changing energy budget, using ground-surface temperature reconstructions for the continents [Huang et al., 2000]. These reconstructions have shown a warming of at least 0.5 K in the 20th century and were used to determine the flux estimates presented here. In the last half-century, the interval of time considered by Levitus et al., there was an average flux of 40 mW/m2 across the land surface into the subsurface, leading to 9.2x1021 J absorbed by the ground. This amount of heat is significantly less than the energy transferred into the oceans, but of the same magnitude as the energy absorbed by the atmosphere or cryosphere. The heat inputs into all the major components of the climate system - atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, lithosphere - conservatively sum to more than 20x1022 J during the last half-century, and reinforce the conclusion that the warming in this interval has been truly global. Huang, S., Pollack, H.N., and Shen, P.-Y. 2000. Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures. Nature. 403. 756-758 Levitus, S., Antonov, J., Wang, J., Delworth, T. L., Dixon, K. and Broccoli, A. 2001. Anthropogenic warming of the Earth's climate system. Science, 292, 267-270

  3. Climate Model Datasets on Earth System Grid II (ESG II)

    DOE Data Explorer

    Earth System Grid (ESG) is a project that combines the power and capacity of supercomputers, sophisticated analysis servers, and datasets on the scale of petabytes. The goal is to provide a seamless distributed environment that allows scientists in many locations to work with large-scale data, perform climate change modeling and simulation,and share results in innovative ways. Though ESG is more about the computing environment than the data, still there are several catalogs of data available at the web site that can be browsed or search. Most of the datasets are restricted to registered users, but several are open to any access.

  4. Impact of climate change on electricity systems and markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chandramowli, Shankar N.

    Climate change poses a serious threat to human welfare. There is now unequivocal scientific evidence that human actions are the primary cause of climate change. The principal climate forcing factor is the increasing accumulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) due to combustion of fossil fuels for transportation and electricity generation. Generation of electricity account for nearly one-third of the greenhouse (GHG) emissions globally (on a CO2-equivalent basis). Any kind of economy-wide mitigation or adaptation effort to climate change must have a prominent focus on the electric power sector. I have developed a capacity expansion model for the power sector called LP-CEM (Linear Programming based Capacity Expansion Model). LP-CEM incorporates both the long-term climate change effects and the state/regional-level macroeconomic trends. This modeling framework is demonstrated for the electric power system in the Northeast region of United States. Some of the methodological advances introduced in this research are: the use of high-resolution temperature projections in a power sector capacity expansion model; the incorporation of changes in sectoral composition of electricity demand over time; the incorporation of the effects of climate change and variability on both the demand and supply-side of power sector using parameters estimated in the literature; and an inter-model coupling link with a macroeconomic model to account for price elasticity of demand and other effects on the broader macro-economy. LP-CEM-type models can be of use to state/regional level policymakers to plan for future mitigation and adaptation measures for the electric power sector. From the simulation runs, it is shown that scenarios with climate change effects and with high economic growth rates have resulted in higher capacity addition, optimal supply costs, wholesale/retail prices and total ratepayers' costs. LP-CEM is also adapted to model the implications of the proposed Clean Power Plan

  5. Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

  6. Climate-induced tree mortality: Earth system consequences

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Adams, Henry D.; Macalady, Alison K.; Breshears, David D.; Allen, Craig D.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Saleska, Scott; Huxman, Travis E.; McDowell, Nathan G.

    2010-01-01

    One of the greatest uncertainties in global environmental change is predicting changes in feedbacks between the biosphere and the Earth system. Terrestrial ecosystems and, in particular, forests exert strong controls on the global carbon cycle and influence regional hydrology and climatology directly through water and surface energy budgets [Bonan, 2008; Chapin et al., 2008].According to new research, tree mortality associated with elevated temperatures and drought has the potential to rapidly alter forest ecosystems, potentially affecting feedbacks to the Earth system [Allen et al., 2010]. Several lines of recent research demonstrate how tree mortality rates in forests may be sensitive to climate change—particularly warming and drying. This emerging consequence of global change has important effects on Earth system processes (Figure 1).

  7. Recent trends in energy flows through the Arctic climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayer, Michael; Haimberger, Leo

    2016-04-01

    While Arctic climate change can be diagnosed in many parameters, a comprehensive assessment of long-term changes and low frequency variability in the coupled Arctic energy budget still remains challenging due to the complex physical processes involved and the lack of observations. Here we draw on strongly improved observational capabilities of the past 15 years and employ observed radiative fluxes from CERES along with state-of-the-art atmospheric as well as coupled ocean-ice reanalyses to explore recent changes in energy flows through the Arctic climate system. Various estimates of ice volume and ocean heat content trends imply that the energy imbalance of the Arctic climate system was >1 Wm-2 during the 2000-2015 period, where most of the extra heat warmed the ocean and a comparatively small fraction was used to melt sea ice. The energy imbalance was partly fed by enhanced oceanic heat transports into the Arctic, especially in the mid 2000s. Seasonal trends of net radiation show a very clear signal of the ice-albedo feedback. Stronger radiative energy input during summer means increased seasonal oceanic heat uptake and accelerated sea ice melt. In return, lower minimum sea ice extent and higher SSTs lead to enhanced heat release from the ocean during fall season. These results are consistent with modeling studies finding an enhancement of the annual cycle of surface energy exchanges in a warming Arctic. Moreover, stronger heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere in fall tend to warm the arctic boundary layer and reduce meridional temperature gradients, thereby reducing atmospheric energy transports into the polar cap. Although the observed results are a robust finding, extended high-quality datasets are needed to reliably separate trends from low frequency variability.

  8. The Indonesian Throughflow and the Global Climate System.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, Niklas

    1998-04-01

    The role of the Indonesian Throughflow in the global climate system is investigated with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model by contrasting simulations with realistic throughflow and closed Indonesian passages.The Indonesian Throughflow affects the oceanic circulation and thermocline depth around Australia and in the Indian Ocean as described in previous studies and explained by Sverdrup transports. An open throughflow thereby increases surface temperatures in the eastern Indian ocean, reduces temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, and shifts the warm pool and centers of deep convection in the atmosphere to the west. This control on sea surface temperature and deep convection affects atmospheric pressure in the entire Tropics and, via atmospheric teleconnections, in the midlatitudes. As a result, surface wind stress in the entire Tropics changes and meridional and zonal gradients of the tropical thermocline and associated currents increase in the Pacific and decrease in the Indian Ocean. The response includes an acceleration of the equatorial undercurrent in the Pacific, and a deceleration in the Indian Ocean. Thus the Indonesian Throughflow exerts significant control over the global climate in general and the tropical climate in particular.Changes of surface fluxes in the Pacific warm pool region are consistent with the notion that shading by clouds, rather than increases of evaporation, limit highest surface temperatures in the open ocean of the western Pacific. In the marginal seas of the Pacific and in the Indian Ocean no such relationship is found. The feedback of the throughflow transport and its wind forcing is negative and suggests that this interplay cannot excite growing solution or lead to self-sustained oscillations of the ocean-atmosphere system.

  9. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF CEILING RADIANT COOLING SYSTEM IN COMPOSITE CLIMATE

    SciTech Connect

    Sharma, Anuj; Mathur, Jyotirmay; Bhandari, Mahabir S

    2015-01-01

    Radiant cooling systems are proving to be an energy efficient solution due to higher thermal capacity of cooling fluid especially for the buildings that require individual zone controls and where the latent loads are moderate. The Conventional air conditioners work at very low temperature i.e.5-8 c (refrigerant evaporator inlet) while the radiant cooling systems, also referred as high temperature cooling system, work at high temperatures i.e. 14-18 c. The radiant cooling systems can maintain lower MRT (Mean Radiant Temperature) as ceiling panels maintain uniform temperature gradient inside room and provide higher human comfort. The radiant cooling systems are relatively new systems and their operation and energy savings potential are not quantified for a large number of buildings and operational parameters. Moreover, there are only limited numbers of whole building simulation studies have been carried out for these systems to have a full confidence in the capability of modelling tools to simulate these systems and predict the impact of various operating parameters. Theoretically, savings achieve due to higher temperature set point of chilled water, which reduces chiller-running time. However, conventional air conditioner runs continuously to maintain requisite temperature. In this paper, experimental study for performance evaluation of radiant cooling system carried out on system installed at Malaviya National Institute of Technology Jaipur. This paper quantifies the energy savings opportunities and effective temperature by radiant cooling system at different chilled water flow rates and temperature range. The data collected/ analysed through experimental study will used for calibration and validation of system model of building prepared in building performance simulation software. This validated model used for exploring optimized combinations of key parameters for composite climate. These optimized combinations will used in formulation of radiant cooling system

  10. The Mars climate for a photovoltaic system operation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Appelbaum, Joseph; Flood, Dennis J.

    1989-01-01

    Detailed information on the climatic conditions on Mars are very desirable for the design of photovoltaic systems for establishing outposts on the Martian surface. The distribution of solar insolation (global, direct and diffuse) and ambient temperature is addressed. This data are given at the Viking lander's locations and can also be used, to a first approximation, for other latitudes. The insolation data is based on measured optical depth of the Martian atmosphere derived from images taken of the sun with a special diode on the Viking cameras; and computation based on multiple wavelength and multiple scattering of the solar radiation. The ambient temperature (diurnal and yearly distribution) is based on direct measurements with a thermocouple at 1.6 m above the ground at the Viking lander locations. The insolation and ambient temperature information are short term data. New information about Mars may be forthcoming in the future from new analysis of previously collected data or from future flight missions. The Mars climate data for photovoltaic system operation will thus be updated accordingly.

  11. Three Connected Climate Education Interactives: Carbon Cycle, Earth System Energy Flows, and Climate Change Impacts/Adaptations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sussman, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) serves the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Island (USAPI) Region. The international entities served by PCEP are the state of Hawai'i (USA); three Freely Associated States (the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau), and three Territories (Guam, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa). Funded by NSF, the PCEP aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and focus on adaptation strategies that can increase resiliency with respect to climate change impacts. Unfortunately the vast majority of the science texts used in schools come from the US mainland and feature contexts that do not relate to the lives of Pacific island students. The curricular materials also tend to be older and to have very weak climate science content, especially with respect to tropical islands and climate change. In collaboration with public broadcast station WGBH, PCEP has developed three climate education interactives that sequentially provide an introduction to key climate change education concepts. The first in the series focuses on the global carbon cycle and connects increased atmospheric CO2 with rising global temperatures. The second analyzes Earth system energy flows to explain the key role of the increased greenhouse effect. The third focuses on four climate change impacts (higher temperatures, rising sea level, changes in precipitation, and ocean acidification), and adaptation strategies to increase resiliency of local ecosystems and human systems. While the interactives have a Pacific island visual and text perspective, they are broadly applicable for other education audiences. Learners can use the interactives to engage with the basic science concepts, and then apply the climate change impacts to their own contexts.

  12. Building integration of photovoltaic systems in cold climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Athienitis, Andreas K.; Candanedo, José A.

    2010-06-01

    This paper presents some of the research activities on building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems developed by the Solar and Daylighting Laboratory at Concordia University. BIPV systems offer considerable advantages as compared to stand-alone PV installations. For example, BIPV systems can play a role as essential components of the building envelope. BIPV systems operate as distributed power generators using the most widely available renewable source. Since BIPV systems do not require additional space, they are especially appropriate for urban environments. BIPV/Thermal (BIPV/T) systems may use exterior air to extract useful heat from the PV panels, cooling them and thereby improving their electric performance. The recovered thermal energy can then be used for space heating and domestic hot water (DHW) heating, supporting the utilization of BIVP/T as an appropriate technology for cold climates. BIPV and BIPV/T systems are the subject of several ongoing research and demonstration projects (in both residential and commercial buildings) led by Concordia University. The concept of integrated building design and operation is at the centre of these efforts: BIPV and BIPV/T systems must be treated as part of a comprehensive strategy taking into account energy conservation measures, passive solar design, efficient lighting and HVAC systems, and integration of other renewable energy systems (solar thermal, heat pumps, etc.). Concordia Solar Laboratory performs fundamental research on heat transfer and modeling of BIPV/T systems, numerical and experimental investigations on BIPV and BIPV/T in building energy systems and non-conventional applications (building-attached greenhouses), and the design and optimization of buildings and communities.

  13. The earth radiation budget satellite system for climate research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Woerner, C. V.; Cooper, J. E.; Harrison, E. F.

    1978-01-01

    The mission implications of providing earth radiation budget data for climate studies have been thoroughly studied. The results of these studies indicate the need for a multisensor, multisatellite system consisting of high and midinclination orbits. To meet this need, NASA and NOAA are planning a joint Earth Radiation Budget Satellite System (ERBSS) composed of instruments on two of NOAA's near-polar Sun-synchronous TIROS-N/NOAA A through G series of operational satellites and on an NASA midinclination satellite of the Applications Explorer Mission (AEM) type referred to as ERBS-A/AEM. This paper describes the scientific objectives of ERBSS, the associated data analysis methods, mission analysis (sampling), and instrument definition.

  14. Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model.

    PubMed

    Ammann, Caspar M; Joos, Fortunat; Schimel, David S; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Tomas, Robert A

    2007-03-06

    The potential role of solar variations in modulating recent climate has been debated for many decades and recent papers suggest that solar forcing may be less than previously believed. Because solar variability before the satellite period must be scaled from proxy data, large uncertainty exists about phase and magnitude of the forcing. We used a coupled climate system model to determine whether proxy-based irradiance series are capable of inducing climatic variations that resemble variations found in climate reconstructions, and if part of the previously estimated large range of past solar irradiance changes could be excluded. Transient simulations, covering the published range of solar irradiance estimates, were integrated from 850 AD to the present. Solar forcing as well as volcanic and anthropogenic forcing are detectable in the model results despite internal variability. The resulting climates are generally consistent with temperature reconstructions. Smaller, rather than larger, long-term trends in solar irradiance appear more plausible and produced modeled climates in better agreement with the range of Northern Hemisphere temperature proxy records both with respect to phase and magnitude. Despite the direct response of the model to solar forcing, even large solar irradiance change combined with realistic volcanic forcing over past centuries could not explain the late 20th century warming without inclusion of greenhouse gas forcing. Although solar and volcanic effects appear to dominate most of the slow climate variations within the past thousand years, the impacts of greenhouse gases have dominated since the second half of the last century.

  15. A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eden, J. M.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Hawkins, E.; Suckling, E. B.

    2015-12-01

    Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

  16. An empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eden, Jonathan; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Hawkins, Ed; Suckling, Emma

    2016-04-01

    Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

  17. Potential Of Light Pipes System In Malaysian Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abd Kadir, Aslila; Hakim Ismail, Lokman; Kasim, Narimah; Kaamin, Masiri

    2016-11-01

    Light-pipes system are simple structures that allow the transmission of daylight from the outside to the inside of a room. It is a practical application in many buildings where daylight cannot reach due to building design and limited facade to placing windows. Since roof is the element directly exposed to the sunlight, light pipes system could be introduced. This paper examines the illumination levels obtained using light pipes system under Malaysia climate conditions. A light-pipe system that was installed in a test room located in Batu Pahat. Indoor illuminance distributions and concurrent outdoor illuminance were monitored at a 30 minutes interval for 5 days. The results indicated that the amount of daylight penetrated into the building are varied with less than 150lux in the early morning and late evening, and maximum at over 350lux in the noon and early afternoon. The average internal illuminance levels offer by light pipe system met the MS 1525:2007 recommendation for application in Malaysian buildings. These findings indicated that the light pipe system has a potential as a tool for introducing daylight indoors in Malaysia.

  18. Change in Water Cycle- Important Issue on Climate Earth System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Pratik

    Change in Water Cycle- Important Issue on Climate Earth System PRATIK KUMAR SINGH1 1BALDEVRAM MIRDHA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY,JAIPUR (RAJASTHAN) ,INDIA Water is everywhere on Earth and is the only known substance that can naturally exist as a gas, liquid, and solid within the relatively small range of air temperatures and pressures found at the Earth's surface.Changes in the hydrological cycle as a consequence of climate and land use drivers are expected to play a central role in governing a vast range of environmental impacts.Earth's climate will undergo changes in response to natural variability, including solar variability, and to increasing concentrations of green house gases and aerosols.Further more, agreement is widespread that these changes may profoundly affect atmospheric water vapor concentrations, clouds and precipitation patterns.As we know that ,a warmer climate, directly leading to increased evaporation, may well accelerate the hydrological cycle, resulting in an increase in the amount of moisture circulating through the atmosphere.The Changing Water Cycle programmer will develop an integrated, quantitative understanding of the changes taking place in the global water cycle, involving all components of the earth system, improving predictions for the next few decades of regional precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, hydrological storage and fluxes.The hydrological cycle involves evaporation, transpiration, condensation, precipitation, and runoff. NASA's Aqua satellite will monitor many aspects of the role of water in the Earth's systems, and will do so at spatial and temporal scales appropriate to foster a more detailed understanding of each of the processes that contribute to the hydrological cycle. These data and the analyses of them will nurture the development and refinement of hydrological process models and a corresponding improvement in regional and global climate models, with a direct anticipated benefit of more accurate weather and

  19. Workshop 3 (synthesis): climate variability, water systems and management options.

    PubMed

    Connor, R; Kuylenstierna, J

    2004-01-01

    Addressing climate variability now will better prepare us for future impacts of climate change. Sustained, multi-stakeholder dialogue at local through national levels is an approach that will reach the widest audience, helped by tools that illustrate vulnerability such as the Climate Vulnerability Index. Integrated water resources management deals with managing for variability and change and is therefore highly appropriate for dealing with climate impacts.

  20. Decomposing the meridional heat transport in the climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Haijun; Li, Qing; Wang, Kun; Sun, Yu; Sun, Daoxun

    2015-05-01

    The meridional heat transport (MHT) in the climate system is investigated using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model (CESM1.0). This work decomposes the MHT and studies their physics in detail. The meridional ocean heat transport (OHT) can be decomposed into the contributions from the Euler mean circulation, bolus circulation, sub-mesoscale circulation and dissipation. The Euler mean heat transport dominates the total OHT in most latitudes, except that in the Southern Ocean (40-50°S) where the OHT is determined by the eddy-induced circulation and dissipation. In the Indo-Pacific the OHT is fulfilled by the wind-driven circulation, which dominates the total global OHT in the tropics. In the Atlantic the OHT is carried by both the wind-driven circulation and the thermohaline circulation, and the latter dominates the total OHT in the mid-high latitudes. The meridional atmosphere heat transport consists of the dry static energy (DSE) and latent energy (LE) transport. In the tropics the LE transport is equatorward and compensates partially the poleward DSE transport. In the extratropics, the LE and DSE are poleward and reinforce one another, both of which are dominated by the eddy components. The LE transport can be considered as the "joint air-sea mode" since the ocean controls the moisture supply. It can be also precisely obtained from the evaporation minus precipitation over the ocean and thus this work quantifies the individual ocean basin contributions to the LE transport.

  1. Integrated web system of geospatial data services for climate research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Georeferenced datasets are currently actively used for modeling, interpretation and forecasting of climatic and ecosystem changes on different spatial and temporal scales. Due to inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets as well as their huge size (up to tens terabytes for a single dataset) a special software supporting studies in the climate and environmental change areas is required. An approach for integrated analysis of georefernced climatological data sets based on combination of web and GIS technologies in the framework of spatial data infrastructure paradigm is presented. According to this approach a dedicated data-processing web system for integrated analysis of heterogeneous georeferenced climatological and meteorological data is being developed. It is based on Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards and involves many modern solutions such as object-oriented programming model, modular composition, and JavaScript libraries based on GeoExt library, ExtJS Framework and OpenLayers software. This work is supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, Agreement #14.613.21.0037.

  2. Impacts on Water Management and Crop Production of Regional Cropping System Adaptation to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhong, H.; Sun, L.; Tian, Z.; Liang, Z.; Fischer, G.

    2014-12-01

    China is one of the most populous and fast developing countries, also faces a great pressure on grain production and food security. Multi-cropping system is widely applied in China to fully utilize agro-climatic resources and increase land productivity. As the heat resource keep improving under climate warming, multi-cropping system will also shifting northward, and benefit crop production. But water shortage in North China Plain will constrain the adoption of new multi-cropping system. Effectiveness of multi-cropping system adaptation to climate change will greatly depend on future hydrological change and agriculture water management. So it is necessary to quantitatively express the water demand of different multi-cropping systems under climate change. In this paper, we proposed an integrated climate-cropping system-crops adaptation framework, and specifically focused on: 1) precipitation and hydrological change under future climate change in China; 2) the best multi-cropping system and correspondent crop rotation sequence, and water demand under future agro-climatic resources; 3) attainable crop production with water constraint; and 4) future water management. In order to obtain climate projection and precipitation distribution, global climate change scenario from HADCAM3 is downscaled with regional climate model (PRECIS), historical climate data (1960-1990) was interpolated from more than 700 meteorological observation stations. The regional Agro-ecological Zone (AEZ) model is applied to simulate the best multi-cropping system and crop rotation sequence under projected climate change scenario. Finally, we use the site process-based DSSAT model to estimate attainable crop production and the water deficiency. Our findings indicate that annual land productivity may increase and China can gain benefit from climate change if multi-cropping system would be adopted. This study provides a macro-scale view of agriculture adaptation, and gives suggestions to national

  3. Design and development of low pressure evaporator/condenser unit for water-based adsorption type climate control systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venkataramanan, Arjun; Rios Perez, Carlos A.; Hidrovo, Carlos H.

    2016-11-01

    Electric vehicles (EVs) are the future of clean transportation and driving range is one of the important parameters which dictates its marketability. In order to increase driving range, electrical battery energy consumption should be minimized. Vapor-compression refrigeration systems currently employed in EVs for climate control consume a significant fraction of the battery charge. Thus, by replacing this traditional heating ventilation and air-conditioning system with an adsorption based climate control system one can have the capability of increasing the drive range of EVs.The Advanced Thermo-adsorptive Battery (ATB) for climate control is a water-based adsorption type refrigeration cycle. An essential component of the ATB is a low pressure evaporator/condenser unit (ECU) which facilitates both the evaporation and condensation processes. The thermal design of the ECU relies predominantly on the accurate prediction of evaporation/boiling heat transfer coefficients since the standard correlations for predicting boiling heat transfer coefficients have large uncertainty at the low operating pressures of the ATB. This work describes the design and development of a low pressure ECU as well as the thermal performance of the actual ECU prototype.

  4. Mainstreaming of Climate Change into the Ghanaian Tertiary Educational System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nyarko, B. K.

    2013-12-01

    The impact of Climate Change has a far-reaching implication for economies and people living in the fragile Regions of Africa analysts project that by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people will be exposed various forms of Climate Change Stresses. Education as a key strategy identified under Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the efforts of various educational institutions as a means of mitigating climate change and enhancing sustainability. Climate Change education offers many opportunities and benefits for educators, researchers, learners, and for wider society, but there are also many challenges, which can hinder the successful mainstreaming of climate change education. The study aims at understanding barriers for Climate Change Education in selected tertiary institutions in Ghana. The study was conducted among Geoscience Departments of the 7 main public universities of Ghana. The transcript analysis identified issues that hinders the mainstreaming of Climate Change, these includes existing levels of knowledge and understanding of the concept of climate change, appreciating the threshold concepts, ineffective teaching of Climate Change and some Departments are slow in embracing Climate Change as a discipline. Hence to develop strategies to mainstream climate change education it is important to recognise that increasing the efficiency and delivery of Climate Change education requires greater attention and coordination of activities and updating the educators knowledge and skill's. Various Ministries should be challenged to develop and integrate climate change into education policies. In the design of curriculum, there is a need to integrate Climate Change Education into curricula without compromising already overstretched programmes of study. There is a need to encourage and enhance innovative teaching approaches such as Problem-based learning (PBL) is an approach that challenges students to learn through engagement in a real problem. Institutions and

  5. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    SciTech Connect

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  6. Nonlinear problems of complex natural systems: Sun and climate dynamics.

    PubMed

    Bershadskii, A

    2013-01-13

    The universal role of the nonlinear one-third subharmonic resonance mechanism in generation of strong fluctuations in complex natural dynamical systems related to global climate is discussed using wavelet regression detrended data. The role of the oceanic Rossby waves in the year-scale global temperature fluctuations and the nonlinear resonance contribution to the El Niño phenomenon have been discussed in detail. The large fluctuations in the reconstructed temperature on millennial time scales (Antarctic ice core data for the past 400,000 years) are also shown to be dominated by the one-third subharmonic resonance, presumably related to the Earth's precession effect on the energy that the intertropical regions receive from the Sun. The effects of galactic turbulence on the temperature fluctuations are also discussed.

  7. The Influence of Climate Change in Active Convergent Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scarselli, S.; Simpson, G. H.; Allen, P. A.; Minelli, G.

    2006-12-01

    The link between tectonics, surface erosion, and climate in the evolution of mountain belts has been observed in several natural systems (Sinclair & Allen, 1992; Norris & Cooper, 1997; Pavlis et al., 1997; Willett et al., 2006) and numerous theoretical and applied studies have been carried out in the last several years ( Willett et al., 2002; Simpson, 2004 a, c). This relation is particularly sensitive in active convergent orogenic wedges where the efficiency of surface mass transport and climatic change controls the spatial distribution of deformation and sedimentation and degree of crustal thickening (Beaumont et al., 1992; Willett, 1999; Simpson, 2006). This study focus on the effect of climatic changes, leading to palaeogeographic changes, in an active convergent system. In particular, the effects produced by relative sea-level changes and efficiency of the erosional processes have been tested using a two dimensional mechanical model (Simpson, 2006). The model is suited to study deformation, erosion and sedimentation in fold-thrust belts and foreland basins. Two effects of the relative sea-level changes, and in particular in the case of the relative sea-level drop occurring during deformation, can be potentially important for the mechanical behavior of the surrounding crust. Firstly, gravitational water loads above the deforming rocks could be decreased. Secondly, the replacement of submarine with subaerial conditions could probably increase erosion rates, especially within the river system. Both effects would tend to amplify local deformation rates leading to a major pulse of deformation (Simpson, 2006) and to the formation of complex three dimensional deformation patterns (Simpson, 2004). Finally, this model has been used to evaluate the effect of the Messinian salinity crisis in the Mediterranean basin and in particular in the Northern Apennines evolution (Italy). References: Beaumont, C.; Fullsack, P. & Hamilton J., (1992). In: Thrust Tectonics (Ed by K

  8. Climate Observing System Simulation Experiments: Understanding what we have and what we need

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weatherhead, E. C.

    2015-12-01

    Observations to monitor the climate and to support climate research are critical to advancing the science of climate change. Some parameters appear to be well monitored, while in other cases, our understanding is directly limited by the lack of quality observations. Detecting trends, attributing change and understanding climate feedbacks require a variety of observations. Making use of historical datasets, we can identify the most critical needs for continued and new observing systems. Decisions about accuracy, spatial resolution, and temporal frequency need to be made judiciously with a careful analysis of the requirements needed to specific scientific questions. This presentation will show initial results from comparing natural variability to the specific questions of detecting trends and addressing climate feedback questions. Combining the high resolution weather Observing System Simulation Exkperiments with the longer timescale needs of climate research, we can make responsible recommendations on future observing systems as well as identify the necessary continuation of existing observing systems.

  9. Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases.

    PubMed

    Mellor, Jonathan E; Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies.

  10. Planning for climate change: the need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases

    PubMed Central

    Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

    2016-01-01

    Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies. PMID:26799810

  11. Pilot system on extreme climate monitoring and early warning for long range forecast in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, K.; Park, B. K.; E-hyung, P.; Gong, Y.; Kim, H. K.; Park, S.; Min, S. K.; Yoo, H. D.

    2015-12-01

    Recently, extreme weather/climate events such as heat waves, flooding/droughts etc. have been increasing in frequency and intensity under climate change over the world. Also, they can have substantial impacts on ecosystem and human society (agriculture, health, and economy) of the affected regions. According to future projections of climate, extreme weather and climate events in Korea are expected to occure more frequently with stronger intensity over the 21st century. For the better long range forecast, it is also fundamentally ruquired to develop a supporting system in terms of extreme weather and climate events including forequency and trend. In this context, the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) has recently initiated a development of the extreme climate monintoring and early warning system for long range forecast, which consists of three sub-system components; (1) Real-time climate monitoring system, (2) Ensemble prediction system, and (3) Mechanism analysis and display system for climate extremes. As a first step, a pilot system has been designed focusing on temperature extremes such heat waves and cold snaps using daily, monthly and seasonal observations and model prediction output on the global, regional and national levels. In parallel, the skills of the KMA long range prediction system are being evaluated comprehensively for weather and climate extremes, for which varous case studies are conducted to better understand the observed variations of extrem climates and responsible mechanisms and also to assess predictability of the ensemble prediction system for extremes. Details in the KMA extreme climate monitoring and early warning system will be intorduced and some preliminary results will be discussed for heat/cold waves in Korea.

  12. Climate change in the South American Monsoon System: present climate and CMIP5 projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, C.; Carvalho, L. V.

    2013-05-01

    The South American Monsoon System (SAMS) is the most important climatic feature in South America. This study focuses on the large-scale characteristics of the SAMS: seasonal amplitudes, onset and demise dates and durations. Changes in the SAMS are investigated with the gridded precipitation, CFSR reanalyses and fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations for two scenarios ("historical" and high emission representative concentration pathways "rcp8.5"). Qualitative comparisons with a previous study indicate that some CMIP5 models have significantly improved their representation of the SAMS relative to their CMIP3 versions. Some models exhibit persistent deficiencies in simulating the SAMS. The observations and CMIP5 model simulations (historical experiment) consistently show statistically significant trends indicating the SAMS has larger seasonal amplitudes, early onsets, late demises and longer durations in recent decades. Future changes in the SAMS are analyzed with six CMIP5 model simulations of the rcp8.5 high emission scenario. All simulations unquestionably show significant increases in seasonal amplitudes, early onsets and late demises of the SAMS. The simulations for this scenario project a 30% increase in the amplitude from the current level by 2045-2050. In addition, the rcp8.5 scenario projects an ensemble mean decrease of 14-day in the onset and 17-day increase in the demise date of the SAMS by 2045-2050. The results additionally indicate lack of spatial agreement in model projections of changes in total wet season precipitation over South America during 2070-100. The CMIP5 projections analyzed here suggest increases in total monsoon precipitation over southeast Brazil, Uruguay and northern Argentina

  13. Summertime wind climate in Yerevan: valley wind systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gevorgyan, Artur

    2017-03-01

    1992-2014 wind climatology analysis in Yerevan is presented with particular focus given to the summertime thermally induced valley wind systems. Persistence high winds are observed in Yerevan during July-August months when the study region is strongly affected by a heat-driven plain-plateau circulation. The local valley winds arrive in Yerevan in the evening hours, generally, from 1500 to 1800 UTC, leading to rapid enhancement of wind speeds and dramatic changes in wind direction. Valley-winds significantly impact the local climate of Yerevan, which is a densely populated city. These winds moderate evening temperatures after hot and dry weather conditions observed during summertime afternoons. On the other hand, valley winds result in significantly higher nocturnal temperatures and more frequent occurrence of warm nights (tn90p) in Yerevan due to stronger turbulent mixing of boundary layer preventing strong surface cooling and temperature drop in nighttime and morning hours. The applied WRF-ARW limited area model is able to simulate the key features of the observed spatial pattern of surface winds in Armenia associated with significant terrain channeling, wind curls, etc. By contrast, ECMWF EPS global model fails to capture mesoscale and local wind systems over Armenia. However, the results of statistical verification of surface winds in Yerevan showed that substantial biases are present in WRF 18-h wind forecasts, as well as, the temporal variability of observed surface winds is not reproduced adequately in WRF-ARW model.

  14. The 21st century Museum Climatic Monitoring System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, W.-S.

    2015-08-01

    Technology has provided us work convenience and shaped our quality of life; it has enabled an unprecedented level of access to knowledge by flipping screen of a hand-held electronic device without going elsewhere but stay connected wireless communication. This kind of technology has been broadly acquired at museums in Hong Kong for preserving their valuable collections. Similar gadget was applied on the monitoring system to record climatic conditions of museum's stores and galleries. Sensors have been equipped with chips for the wireless transmission of RH/Temp, without installation of any conduit or LAN lines. Useful and important data will then be grouped into a packet format for efficient delivery. As long as the static IP address of the target workstation has been set, data can be accurately retrieved from one place to another via commercially available browsers, such as: Firefox or Internet Explorer, even on hand-held electronic devices. This paper will discuss the detail of this system, its pros and cons in comparison with the old model. After all, the new technology is highly significant in supporting the current needs and the future developments of the museum service.

  15. Coastal upwelling systems under changing climate and high CO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lachkar, Z.; Gruber, N.; Plattner, G.-K.; Hauri, C.

    2009-04-01

    Eastern Boundary Current Upwelling Systems (EBUS) are major oceanographic ecosystems that are well known for high productivity and for playing an important role in the marine carbon cycle. EBUS are particularly sensitive to human-induced climate change, such as potential shifts in the distribution and the magnitude of upwelling-favorable winds, as well as ocean acidification from rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, neither the biological response to changes in wind forcing nor the extent to which coastal waters might become exposed to undersaturated waters due to a shoaling of the CaCO3 saturation horizon are currently well understood. The fact that local environmental and physical conditions substantially vary from one EBUS to another further complicates the story. To address the vulnerability of different EBUS, we investigate the magnitude and effect of ocean acidification and the impacts of changes in upwelling favorable winds on the productivity by conducting eddy-resolving simulations with the Regional Oceanic Modeling System - ROMS -- coupled to a nitrogen based Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Detritus-Zooplankton (NPDZ) biogeochemical model including a representation of the marine carbon cycle for two of the four major EBUS, namely the California and the Canary Current Systems. We examine how potential changes in wind stress will affect the productivity in both upwelling systems and explore past, present and future changes in pH, CaCO3 saturation horizons, and other biogeochemical and ecological processes in response to elevated atmospheric CO2. A particular focus of our analyses is on the rate of change and on the timing when critical thresholds will be passed in the different EBUS.

  16. Mars: A Planet with a Dynamic Climate System (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haberle, R. M.

    2013-12-01

    Mars is a well-observed planet. Since the 1960s orbiters, landers, rovers, and earth-based telescopic observations show that its climate system is dynamic. Its dynamic nature, largely the result of atmosphere-surface interactions, is most obvious in the seasonal cycles of dust, water, and carbon dioxide that define the planet's climate system. These cycles are linked through the global circulation and MGS, Odyssey, Phoenix, MER, Mars Express, MRO, and now MSL have continuously observed them at Mars for the past 16 years. Their observations show that while the seasonal cycles are largely annually repeatable, there are interannual variations. Planet-encircling dust storms, for example, are quasi-triennial and originate over a broader range of seasons and locations than previously thought. Water moves from pole-to-pole each year in a largely, but not precisely, repeatable pattern that suggests but does not demand non-polar surface reservoirs. And the seasonal CO2 polar caps grow and retreat in a very predictable way with only minor deviations from year-to-year in spite of significant differences in atmospheric dust content. These behaviors suggest a complicated but robust coupled system in which these cycles interact to produce the greatest interannual variability in the dust cycle and least variability in the CO2 cycle. The nature of these interactions is the subject of ongoing research, but clouds, both water ice and CO2 ice, now appear to play a bigger role than believed at the end of the 20th century. There may also be some long-term trends in these cycles as there is evidence from imaging data, for example, that the south polar residual cap may not be stable on decadal to centennial time scales. On even longer time scales, the discovery of as much as 5 mb global equivalent of buried CO2 ice near the south pole, the detection of vast quantities of subsurface water ice at very shallow depths in midlatitudes of both hemispheres, and the presence of remnant glacial

  17. Mars: A Planet with a Dynamic Climate System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haberle, Robert M.

    2013-01-01

    Mars is a well-observed planet. Since the 1960s orbiters, landers, rovers, and earth-based telescopic observations show that its climate system is dynamic. Its dynamic nature, largely the result of atmosphere-surface interactions, is most obvious in the seasonal cycles of dust, water, and carbon dioxide that define the planet's climate system. These cycles are linked through the global circulation and MGS, Odyssey, Phoenix, MER, Mars Express, MRO, and now MSL have continuously observed them at Mars for the past 16 years. Their observations show that while the seasonal cycles are largely annually repeatable, there are interannual variations. Planet-encircling dust storms, for example, are quasi-triennial and originate over a broader range of seasons and locations than previously thought. Water moves from pole-to-pole each year in a largely, but not precisely, repeatable pattern that suggests but does not demand non-polar surface reservoirs. And the seasonal CO2 polar caps grow and retreat in a very predictable way with only minor deviations from year-to-year in spite of significant differences in atmospheric dust content. These behaviors suggest a complicated but robust coupled system in which these cycles interact to produce the greatest interannual variability in the dust cycle and least variability in the CO2 cycle. The nature of these interactions is the subject of ongoing research, but clouds, both water ice and CO2 ice, now appear to play a bigger role than believed at the end of the 20th century. There may also be some long-term trends in these cycles as there is evidence from imaging data, for example, that the south polar residual cap may not be stable on decadal to centennial time scales. On even longer time scales, the discovery of as much as 5 mb global equivalent of buried CO2 ice near the south pole, the detection of vast quantities of subsurface water ice at very shallow depths in midlatitudes of both hemispheres, and the presence of remnant glacial

  18. Using climate regionalization to understand Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) precipitation performance for the Conterminous United States (CONUS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Regonda, Satish K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Rodell, Matthew

    2016-06-01

    Dynamically based seasonal forecasts are prone to systematic spatial biases due to imperfections in the underlying global climate model (GCM). This can result in low-forecast skill when the GCM misplaces teleconnections or fails to resolve geographic barriers, even if the prediction of large-scale dynamics is accurate. To characterize and address this issue, this study applies objective climate regionalization to identify discrepancies between the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) and precipitation observations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Regionalization shows that CFSv2 1 month forecasts capture the general spatial character of warm season precipitation variability but that forecast regions systematically differ from observation in some transition zones. CFSv2 predictive skill for these misclassified areas is systematically reduced relative to correctly regionalized areas and CONUS as a whole. In these incorrectly regionalized areas, higher skill can be obtained by using a regional-scale forecast in place of the local grid cell prediction.

  19. Using Climate Regionalization to Understand Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Precipitation Performance for the Conterminous United States (CONUS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Regonda, Satish K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Rodell, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Dynamically based seasonal forecasts are prone to systematic spatial biases due to imperfections in the underlying global climate model (GCM). This can result in low-forecast skill when the GCM misplaces teleconnections or fails to resolve geographic barriers, even if the prediction of large-scale dynamics is accurate. To characterize and address this issue, this study applies objective climate regionalization to identify discrepancies between the Climate Forecast SystemVersion 2 (CFSv2) and precipitation observations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Regionalization shows that CFSv2 1 month forecasts capture the general spatial character of warm season precipitation variability but that forecast regions systematically differ from observation in some transition zones. CFSv2 predictive skill for these misclassified areas is systematically reduced relative to correctly regionalized areas and CONUS as a whole. In these incorrectly regionalized areas, higher skill can be obtained by using a regional-scale forecast in place of the local grid cell prediction.

  20. A Test of Climate Change Refugia in Montane Meadow Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morelli, T.; Maher, S. P.; Moritz, C.; Beissinger, S. R.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change refugia, areas on the landscape buffered from recent shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns, are potentially important to understand population responses to anthropogenic climate change. With funding from the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative and the National Science Foundation, we used occupancy and genetic data to test the climate change refugia concept. Specifically, we estimated connectivity between Sierra Nevada meadows based on features such as topography and hydrology and determined the amount of change that meadows experienced during the 20th century. We then examined fine-scale population genetic structure across the California range of a montane meadow specialist, the Belding's ground squirrel (Urocitellus beldingi). We found distinctive genetic structure across the state as well as within the smaller geographic area of the central Sierra Nevada. Genetic diversity between survey sites predicted climate change refugia and population persistence supported hypothetical landscape connectivity. Our results highlight an important tool in climate change adaptation, given the limited resources available to land managers.

  1. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

    SciTech Connect

    Gutowski, William J.

    2013-02-07

    The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

  2. Sensitivity of proxies on non-linear interactions in the climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Johannes; Beck, Christoph; Menz, Gunter; Neuwirth, Burkhard; Ohlwein, Christian; Philipp, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    To understand natural and anthropogenic induced processes, feedbacks, trends, and dynamics in the climate system, it is essential to consider longer timescales. In this context, annually resolved tree-ring data are often used to reconstruct past temperature or precipitation variability as well as atmospheric or oceanic indices. Due to the interrelation of processes at different spatiotemporal scales in the climate system (micro, local, meso, synoptic and global scale), it is even possible to use proxies - such as tree rings - which react to micro/local climate conditions, to reconstruct phenomena on the global scale of the climate system such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) or the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The dependencies between tree-ring chronologies and climate parameters are not always stable over time and trees growing under temperate climate conditions are often sensitive to different climate parameters. Consequently, for climate reconstructions trees are often used which grow under extreme environmental conditions. We utilized nine weather-/circulation-type classifications in combination with two tree-ring datasets to assess weather-type sensitivity across the Northern Atlantic region. Our results demonstrate that nonstationarities in superordinate space and time scales of the climate system (here synoptic to global scale NAO, AMO) can affect the climate sensitivity of tree-rings for phenomena in subordinate levels of the climate system (here weather-types, meso- to synoptic scale). This scale bias effect, has the capability to impact even large multiproxy networks and the ability of these networks to provide information about past climate conditions. The results - recently published in Scientific Reports - indicate that more research is needed to understand how processes or phenomena on different space-/time scales of the climate system interact. They show that the role of non-linear interactions in the climate system which can lead to

  3. Computing and Systems Applied in Support of Coordinated Energy, Environmental, and Climate Planning

    EPA Science Inventory

    This talk focuses on how Dr. Loughlin is applying Computing and Systems models, tools and methods to more fully understand the linkages among energy systems, environmental quality, and climate change. Dr. Loughlin will highlight recent and ongoing research activities, including: ...

  4. Assembling Large, Multi-Sensor Climate Datasets Using the SciFlo Grid Workflow System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, B. D.; Manipon, G.; Xing, Z.; Fetzer, E.

    2008-12-01

    NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is the world's most ambitious facility for studying global climate change. The mandate now is to combine measurements from the instruments on the A-Train platforms (AIRS, AMSR-E, MODIS, MISR, MLS, and CloudSat) and other Earth probes to enable large-scale studies of climate change over periods of years to decades. However, moving from predominantly single-instrument studies to a multi-sensor, measurement-based model for long-duration analysis of important climate variables presents serious challenges for large-scale data mining and data fusion. For example, one might want to compare temperature and water vapor retrievals from one instrument (AIRS) to another instrument (MODIS), and to a model (ECMWF), stratify the comparisons using a classification of the cloud scenes from CloudSat, and repeat the entire analysis over years of AIRS data. To perform such an analysis, one must discover & access multiple datasets from remote sites, find the space/time matchups between instruments swaths and model grids, understand the quality flags and uncertainties for retrieved physical variables, and assemble merged datasets for further scientific and statistical analysis. To meet these large-scale challenges, we are utilizing a Grid computing and dataflow framework, named SciFlo, in which we are deploying a set of versatile and reusable operators for data query, access, subsetting, co-registration, mining, fusion, and advanced statistical analysis. SciFlo is a semantically-enabled ("smart") Grid Workflow system that ties together a peer-to-peer network of computers into an efficient engine for distributed computation. The SciFlo workflow engine enables scientists to do multi-instrument Earth Science by assembling remotely-invokable Web Services (SOAP or http GET URLs), native executables, command-line scripts, and Python codes into a distributed computing flow. A scientist visually authors the graph of operation in the VizFlow GUI, or uses a

  5. Assembling Large, Multi-Sensor Climate Datasets Using the SciFlo Grid Workflow System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, B.; Manipon, G.; Xing, Z.; Fetzer, E.

    2009-04-01

    NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is an ambitious facility for studying global climate change. The mandate now is to combine measurements from the instruments on the "A-Train" platforms (AIRS, AMSR-E, MODIS, MISR, MLS, and CloudSat) and other Earth probes to enable large-scale studies of climate change over periods of years to decades. However, moving from predominantly single-instrument studies to a multi-sensor, measurement-based model for long-duration analysis of important climate variables presents serious challenges for large-scale data mining and data fusion. For example, one might want to compare temperature and water vapor retrievals from one instrument (AIRS) to another instrument (MODIS), and to a model (ECMWF), stratify the comparisons using a classification of the "cloud scenes" from CloudSat, and repeat the entire analysis over years of AIRS data. To perform such an analysis, one must discover & access multiple datasets from remote sites, find the space/time "matchups" between instruments swaths and model grids, understand the quality flags and uncertainties for retrieved physical variables, assemble merged datasets, and compute fused products for further scientific and statistical analysis. To meet these large-scale challenges, we are utilizing a Grid computing and dataflow framework, named SciFlo, in which we are deploying a set of versatile and reusable operators for data query, access, subsetting, co-registration, mining, fusion, and advanced statistical analysis. SciFlo is a semantically-enabled ("smart") Grid Workflow system that ties together a peer-to-peer network of computers into an efficient engine for distributed computation. The SciFlo workflow engine enables scientists to do multi-instrument Earth Science by assembling remotely-invokable Web Services (SOAP or http GET URLs), native executables, command-line scripts, and Python codes into a distributed computing flow. A scientist visually authors the graph of operation in the Viz

  6. How People Actually Use Thermostats

    SciTech Connect

    Meier, Alan; Aragon, Cecilia; Hurwitz, Becky; Mujumdar, Dhawal; Peffer, Therese; Perry, Daniel; Pritoni, Marco

    2010-08-15

    Residential thermostats have been a key element in controlling heating and cooling systems for over sixty years. However, today's modern programmable thermostats (PTs) are complicated and difficult for users to understand, leading to errors in operation and wasted energy. Four separate tests of usability were conducted in preparation for a larger study. These tests included personal interviews, an on-line survey, photographing actual thermostat settings, and measurements of ability to accomplish four tasks related to effective use of a PT. The interviews revealed that many occupants used the PT as an on-off switch and most demonstrated little knowledge of how to operate it. The on-line survey found that 89% of the respondents rarely or never used the PT to set a weekday or weekend program. The photographic survey (in low income homes) found that only 30% of the PTs were actually programmed. In the usability test, we found that we could quantify the difference in usability of two PTs as measured in time to accomplish tasks. Users accomplished the tasks in consistently shorter times with the touchscreen unit than with buttons. None of these studies are representative of the entire population of users but, together, they illustrate the importance of improving user interfaces in PTs.

  7. Climate Change Education on Public Health Consequences and Impacts to the Human System - An Interdisciplinary Approach to Promoting Climate Literacy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matiella Novak, M.; Paxton, L. J.

    2012-12-01

    - someone not like you. On the other hand, public health impacts are felt by millions and lead to very high costs and those impacts are something with which most people have direct experiences. We will discuss, for example, how climate change can be framed as a cost/benefit problem by looking at the long term costs of increase in disease and illness such as the startling trends in childhood asthma. Changes in water availability, and water and air quality, will result from a warming climate, with measureable consequences for public health: disease spread, food and water security, respiratory health, etc. By integrating this information with education efforts, society, educators and decision makers will have a better understanding of how climate change affects the human system, and what decisions can be made at the individual and community levels to mitigate and adapt to climate change. We will show how this can be achieved.

  8. Quantifying Key Climate Parameter Uncertainties Using an Earth System Model with a Dynamic 3D Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olson, R.; Sriver, R. L.; Goes, M. P.; Urban, N.; Matthews, D.; Haran, M.; Keller, K.

    2011-12-01

    Climate projections hinge critically on uncertain climate model parameters such as climate sensitivity, vertical ocean diffusivity and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcings. Climate sensitivity is defined as the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Vertical ocean diffusivity parameterizes sub-grid scale ocean vertical mixing processes. These parameters are typically estimated using Intermediate Complexity Earth System Models (EMICs) that lack a full 3D representation of the oceans, thereby neglecting the effects of mixing on ocean dynamics and meridional overturning. We improve on these studies by employing an EMIC with a dynamic 3D ocean model to estimate these parameters. We carry out historical climate simulations with the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) varying parameters that affect climate sensitivity, vertical ocean mixing, and effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. We use a Bayesian approach whereby the likelihood of each parameter combination depends on how well the model simulates surface air temperature and upper ocean heat content. We use a Gaussian process emulator to interpolate the model output to an arbitrary parameter setting. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the posterior probability distribution function (pdf) of these parameters. We explore the sensitivity of the results to prior assumptions about the parameters. In addition, we estimate the relative skill of different observations to constrain the parameters. We quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates stemming from climate variability, model and observational errors. We explore the sensitivity of key decision-relevant climate projections to these parameters. We find that climate sensitivity and vertical ocean diffusivity estimates are consistent with previously published results. The climate sensitivity pdf is strongly affected by the prior assumptions, and by the scaling

  9. System and Method for Providing a Climate Data Analytic Services Application Programming Interface Distribution Package

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schnase, John L. (Inventor); Duffy, Daniel Q. (Inventor); Tamkin, Glenn S. (Inventor)

    2016-01-01

    A system, method and computer-readable storage devices for providing a climate data analytic services application programming interface distribution package. The example system can provide various components. The system provides a climate data analytic services application programming interface library that enables software applications running on a client device to invoke the capabilities of a climate data analytic service. The system provides a command-line interface that provides a means of interacting with a climate data analytic service by issuing commands directly to the system's server interface. The system provides sample programs that call on the capabilities of the application programming interface library and can be used as templates for the construction of new client applications. The system can also provide test utilities, build utilities, service integration utilities, and documentation.

  10. Building Climate Resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: A Role for Earth System Sciences

    PubMed Central

    Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Simane, Belay; Habib, Shahid; Anderson, Martha C.; Ozdogan, Mutlu; Foltz, Jeremy D.

    2012-01-01

    The Blue Nile (Abay) Highlands of Ethiopia are characterized by significant interannual climate variability, complex topography and associated local climate contrasts, erosive rains and erodible soils, and intense land pressure due to an increasing population and an economy that is almost entirely dependent on smallholder, low-input agriculture. As a result, these highland zones are highly vulnerable to negative impacts of climate variability. As patterns of variability and precipitation intensity alter under anthropogenic climate change, there is concern that this vulnerability will increase, threatening economic development and food security in the region. In order to overcome these challenges and to enhance sustainable development in the context of climate change, it is necessary to establish climate resilient development strategies that are informed by best-available Earth System Science (ESS) information. This requirement is complicated by the fact that climate projections for the Abay Highlands contain significant and perhaps irreducible uncertainties. A critical challenge for ESS, then, is to generate and to communicate meaningful information for climate resilient development in the context of a highly uncertain climate forecast. Here we report on a framework for applying ESS to climate resilient development in the Abay Highlands, with a focus on the challenge of reducing land degradation. PMID:22470302

  11. Building climate resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: a role for Earth system sciences.

    PubMed

    Zaitchik, Benjamin F; Simane, Belay; Habib, Shahid; Anderson, Martha C; Ozdogan, Mutlu; Foltz, Jeremy D

    2012-02-01

    The Blue Nile (Abay) Highlands of Ethiopia are characterized by significant interannual climate variability, complex topography and associated local climate contrasts, erosive rains and erodible soils, and intense land pressure due to an increasing population and an economy that is almost entirely dependent on smallholder, low-input agriculture. As a result, these highland zones are highly vulnerable to negative impacts of climate variability. As patterns of variability and precipitation intensity alter under anthropogenic climate change, there is concern that this vulnerability will increase, threatening economic development and food security in the region. In order to overcome these challenges and to enhance sustainable development in the context of climate change, it is necessary to establish climate resilient development strategies that are informed by best-available Earth System Science (ESS) information. This requirement is complicated by the fact that climate projections for the Abay Highlands contain significant and perhaps irreducible uncertainties. A critical challenge for ESS, then, is to generate and to communicate meaningful information for climate resilient development in the context of a highly uncertain climate forecast. Here we report on a framework for applying ESS to climate resilient development in the Abay Highlands, with a focus on the challenge of reducing land degradation.

  12. The aerosol-monsoon climate system of Asia: A new paradigm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lau, William K. M.

    2016-02-01

    This commentary is based on a series of recent lectures on aerosol-monsoon interactions I gave at the Beijing Normal University in August 2015. A main theme of the lectures is on a new paradigm of "An Aerosol-Monsoon-Climate-System", which posits that aerosol, like rainfall, cloud, and wind, is an integral component of the monsoon climate system, influencing monsoon weather and climate on all timescales. Here, salient issues discussed in my lectures and my personal perspective regarding interactions between atmospheric dynamics and aerosols from both natural and anthropogenic sources are summarized. My hope is that under this new paradigm, we can break down traditional disciplinary barriers, advance a deeper understanding of weather and climate in monsoon regions, as well as entrain a new generation of geoscientists to strive for a sustainable future for one of the most complex and challenging human-natural climate sub-system of the earth.

  13. Progress Report 2008: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    SciTech Connect

    Drake, John B; Worley, Patrick H; Hoffman, Forrest M; Jones, Phil

    2009-01-01

    This project employs multi-disciplinary teams to accelerate development of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), based at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). A consortium of eight Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories collaborate with NCAR and the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). The laboratories are Argonne (ANL), Brookhaven (BNL) Los Alamos (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore (LLNL), Oak Ridge (ORNL), Pacific Northwest (PNNL) and Sandia (SNL). The work plan focuses on scalablity for petascale computation and extensibility to a more comprehensive earth system model. Our stated goal is to support the DOE mission in climate change research by helping ... To determine the range of possible climate changes over the 21st century and beyond through simulations using a more accurate climate system model that includes the full range of human and natural climate feedbacks with increased realism and spatial resolution.

  14. Simulation of Climate Change Impacts on Wheat-Fallow Cropping Systems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agricultural system simulation models are predictive tools for assessing climate change impacts on crop production. In this study, RZWQM2 that contains the DSSAT 4.0-CERES model was evaluated for simulating climate change impacts on wheat growth. The model was calibrated and validated using data fro...

  15. Farm simulation can help adapt dairy production systems to climate change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change is affecting the production of feed on dairy farms. Warming climates also affect the performance of dairy cattle and the interactions between feed production and animal performance. Process level simulation of dairy production systems provides a tool for whole-farm evaluation of the e...

  16. Recent Advances in Regional Climate System Modeling and ClimateChange Analyses of Extreme Heat

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, Norman L.

    2004-09-24

    During the period May 2003 to May 2004, there were two CEC/PIER funded primary research activities by the Atmosphere and Ocean Sciences Group/Earth Science Division at LBNL. These activities are the implementation and testing of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model (CLM) into MM5, and the analysis of extreme heat days under a new set of climate simulations. The new version of MM5,MM5-CLM, has been tested for a 90 day snowmelt period in the northwestern U.S. Results show that this new code upgrade, as compared to the MM5-NOAH, has improved snowmelt, temperature, and precipitation when compared to observations. These are due in part to a subgrid scheme,advanced snow processes, and advanced vegetation. The climate change analysis is the upper and lower IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios, representing fossil fuel intensive and energy conserving future emission scenarios, and medium and low sensitivity Global Climate Models. Results indicate that California cities will see increases in the number of heat wave and temperature threshold days from two to six times.These results may be viewed as potential outcomes based on today's decisions on emissions.

  17. Developing a Pilot Indicator System for U.S. Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A.; Arndt, D. S.; Pouyat, R. V.; Aicher, R.; Lloyd, A.; Malik, O.; Reyes, J. J.; Anderson, S. M.

    2014-12-01

    The National Climate Indicators System is being developed as part of sustained assessment activities associated with the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). The NCA is conducted under the U.S. Global Change Research Program, which is required to provide a report to Congress every 4 years. The National Climate Indicators System is a set of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information. The Indicators System will address questions important to multiple audiences including (but not limited to) nonscientists (e.g., Congress, U.S. citizens, students), resource managers, and state and municipal planners in a conceptually unified framework. The physical, ecological, and societal indicators will be scalable, to provide information for indicators at national, state, regional, and local scales. The pilot system is a test of the Indicators System for evaluation purposes to assess the readiness of indicators and usability of the system. The National Climate Indicator System has developed a pilot given the recommendations of over 150+ scientists and practitioners and 14 multidisciplinary teams, including, for example, greenhouse gases, forests, grasslands, water, human health, oceans and coasts, and energy. The pilot system of indicators includes approximately 20 indicators that are already developed, scientifically vetted, and implementable immediately. Specifically, the pilot indicators include a small set of global climate context indicators, which provide context for the national or regional indicators, as well as a set of nationally important U.S. natural system and human sector indicators. The purpose of the pilot is to work with stakeholder communities to evaluate the system and the individual indicators using a robust portfolio of evaluation studies, which

  18. Collaborative Research: Towards Advanced Understanding and Predictive Capability of Climate Change in the Arctic using a High-Resolution Regional Arctic Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Lettenmaier, Dennis P

    2013-04-08

    Primary activities are reported in these areas: climate system component studies via one-way coupling experiments; development of the Regional Arctic Climate System Model (RACM); and physical feedback studies focusing on changes in Arctic sea ice using the fully coupled model.

  19. Emergent dynamics of the climate-economy system in the Anthropocene.

    PubMed

    Kellie-Smith, Owen; Cox, Peter M

    2011-03-13

    Global CO(2) emissions are understood to be the largest contributor to anthropogenic climate change, and have, to date, been highly correlated with economic output. However, there is likely to be a negative feedback between climate change and human wealth: economic growth is typically associated with an increase in CO(2) emissions and global warming, but the resulting climate change may lead to damages that suppress economic growth. This climate-economy feedback is assumed to be weak in standard climate change assessments. When the feedback is incorporated in a transparently simple model it reveals possible emergent behaviour in the coupled climate-economy system. Formulae are derived for the critical rates of growth of global CO(2) emissions that cause damped or long-term boom-bust oscillations in human wealth, thereby preventing a soft landing of the climate-economy system. On the basis of this model, historical rates of economic growth and decarbonization appear to put the climate-economy system in a potentially damaging oscillatory regime.

  20. Co-Adapting Water Demand and Supply to Changing Climate in Agricultural Water Systems, A Case Study in Northern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giuliani, M.; Li, Y.; Mainardi, M.; Arias Munoz, C.; Castelletti, A.; Gandolfi, C.

    2013-12-01

    model is managed by a Web GIS to support the visualization of the results and the participation of the stakeholders. The activation of the information loop allows farmers to decide the most profitable crop option on the basis of an expected water supply. Knowing the farmers decisions, the water supply strategy (i.e., the regulation of Lake Como) is then optimized with respect to the actual irrigation demand of the crops. By recursively running this procedure, the farmers and the water manager will exchange information until the system converges to an equilibrium. Our results show that the proposed co-adaptation loop is able to enhance the efficiency of agricultural water management practices and foster crop production. Moreover, the analysis of the co-evolution of the two systems under change allows to estimate the potential for the approach to mitigate climate change adverse impacts.

  1. Climate and energy: A comparative assessment of the Satellite Power System (SPS) and alternative energy technologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kellermeyer, D. A.

    1980-01-01

    The potential effects of five energy technologies on global, regional, and local climate are assessed. The energy technologies examined are coal combustion, light water nuclear reactors, satellite power systems, terrestrial photovoltaics, and fusion. The assessment focuses on waste heat rejection, production of particulate aerosols, and emission of carbon dioxide. The current state of climate modeling and long range climate prediction introduces considerable uncertainty into the assessment, but it may be concluded that waste heat will not produce detectable changes in global climate until world energy use increases 100fold, although minor effects on local weather may occur now; that carbon dioxide from coal combustion in the US alone accounts for about 30% of the current increase in global atmospheric CO2 which may, by about 2050 increase world temperature 2to 3 C, with pronounced effects on world climate; and that rocket exhaust from numerous launches during construction of a satellite power system may affect the upper atmosphere, with uncertain consequences.

  2. Climate Change and Global Food Security: Food Access, Utilization, and the US Food System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, M. E.; Antle, J. M.; Backlund, P. W.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Walsh, M.; Ammann, C. M.; Attavanich, W.; Barrett, C. B.; Bellemare, M. F.; Dancheck, V.; Funk, C.; Grace, K.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Jiang, H.; Maletta, H.; Mata, T.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Ojima, D. S.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.

    2015-12-01

    This paper will summarize results from the USDA report entitled 'Climate change, Global Food Security and the U.S. Food system'. The report focuses on the impact of climate change on global food security, defined as "when all people at all times have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life". The assessment brought together authors and contributors from twenty federal, academic, nongovernmental, intergovernmental, and private organizations in four countries to identify climate change effects on food security through 2100, and analyze the U.S.'s likely connections with that world. This talk will describe how climate change will likely affect food access and food utilization, and summarize how the U.S. food system contributes to global food security, and will be affected by climate change.

  3. Sensitivity of proxies on non-linear interactions in the climate system

    PubMed Central

    Schultz, Johannes A.; Beck, Christoph; Menz, Gunter; Neuwirth, Burkhard; Ohlwein, Christian; Philipp, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Recent climate change is affecting the earth system to an unprecedented extent and intensity and has the potential to cause severe ecological and socioeconomic consequences. To understand natural and anthropogenic induced processes, feedbacks, trends, and dynamics in the climate system, it is also essential to consider longer timescales. In this context, annually resolved tree-ring data are often used to reconstruct past temperature or precipitation variability as well as atmospheric or oceanic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The aim of this study is to assess weather-type sensitivity across the Northern Atlantic region based on two tree-ring width networks. Our results indicate that nonstationarities in superordinate space and time scales of the climate system (here synoptic- to global scale, NAO, AMO) can affect the climate sensitivity of tree-rings in subordinate levels of the system (here meso- to synoptic scale, weather-types). This scale bias effect has the capability to impact even large multiproxy networks and the ability of these networks to provide information about past climate conditions. To avoid scale biases in climate reconstructions, interdependencies between the different scales in the climate system must be considered, especially internal ocean/atmosphere dynamics. PMID:26686001

  4. Sensitivity of proxies on non-linear interactions in the climate system.

    PubMed

    Schultz, Johannes A; Beck, Christoph; Menz, Gunter; Neuwirth, Burkhard; Ohlwein, Christian; Philipp, Andreas

    2015-12-21

    Recent climate change is affecting the earth system to an unprecedented extent and intensity and has the potential to cause severe ecological and socioeconomic consequences. To understand natural and anthropogenic induced processes, feedbacks, trends, and dynamics in the climate system, it is also essential to consider longer timescales. In this context, annually resolved tree-ring data are often used to reconstruct past temperature or precipitation variability as well as atmospheric or oceanic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The aim of this study is to assess weather-type sensitivity across the Northern Atlantic region based on two tree-ring width networks. Our results indicate that nonstationarities in superordinate space and time scales of the climate system (here synoptic- to global scale, NAO, AMO) can affect the climate sensitivity of tree-rings in subordinate levels of the system (here meso- to synoptic scale, weather-types). This scale bias effect has the capability to impact even large multiproxy networks and the ability of these networks to provide information about past climate conditions. To avoid scale biases in climate reconstructions, interdependencies between the different scales in the climate system must be considered, especially internal ocean/atmosphere dynamics.

  5. Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

    SciTech Connect

    Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Brown, Theresa Jean; Cai, Ximing; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton; Constantine, Paul G; Dalbey, Keith R.; Debusschere, Bert J.; Fields, Richard; Hart, David Blaine; Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna; Kerstein, Alan R.; Levy, Michael; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Najm, Habib N.; Overfelt, James Robert; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Peplinski, William J.; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Stubblefield, William Anthony; Taylor, Mark A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Villa, Daniel L.

    2012-10-01

    Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

  6. The Role of Snow and Ice in the Climate System

    SciTech Connect

    Barry, Roger

    2007-12-19

    Global snow and ice cover (the 'cryosphere') plays a major role in global climate and hydrology through a range of complex interactions and feedbacks, the best known of which is the ice - albedo feedback. Snow and ice cover undergo marked seasonal and long term changes in extent and thickness. The perennial elements - the major ice sheets and permafrost - play a role in present-day regional and local climate and hydrology, but the large seasonal variations in snow cover and sea ice are of importance on continental to hemispheric scales. The characteristics of these variations, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, and evidence for recent trends in snow and ice extent are discussed.

  7. The Role of Snow and Ice in the Climate System

    ScienceCinema

    Barry, Roger G.

    2016-07-12

    Global snow and ice cover (the 'cryosphere') plays a major role in global climate and hydrology through a range of complex interactions and feedbacks, the best known of which is the ice - albedo feedback. Snow and ice cover undergo marked seasonal and long term changes in extent and thickness. The perennial elements - the major ice sheets and permafrost - play a role in present-day regional and local climate and hydrology, but the large seasonal variations in snow cover and sea ice are of importance on continental to hemispheric scales. The characteristics of these variations, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, and evidence for recent trends in snow and ice extent are discussed.

  8. Realizing actual feedback control of complex network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tu, Chengyi; Cheng, Yuhua

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, we present the concept of feedbackability and how to identify the Minimum Feedbackability Set of an arbitrary complex directed network. Furthermore, we design an estimator and a feedback controller accessing one MFS to realize actual feedback control, i.e. control the system to our desired state according to the estimated system internal state from the output of estimator. Last but not least, we perform numerical simulations of a small linear time-invariant dynamics network and a real simple food network to verify the theoretical results. The framework presented here could make an arbitrary complex directed network realize actual feedback control and deepen our understanding of complex systems.

  9. Potential Economic Benefits of Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Future Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Williams, Jimmy R.

    2010-03-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to

  10. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

    2010-01-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting

  11. Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

    PubMed

    Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

    2010-03-01

    Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs

  12. Influence of Sea Ice on Arctic Marine Sulfur Biogeochemistry in the Community Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Deal, Clara; Jin, Meibing

    2013-06-30

    Global climate models (GCMs) have not effectively considered how responses of arctic marine ecosystems to a warming climate will influence the global climate system. A key response of arctic marine ecosystems that may substantially influence energy exchange in the Arctic is a change in dimethylsulfide (DMS) emissions, because DMS emissions influence cloud albedo. This response is closely tied to sea ice through its impacts on marine ecosystem carbon and sulfur cycling, and the ice-albedo feedback implicated in accelerated arctic warming. To reduce the uncertainty in predictions from coupled climate simulations, important model components of the climate system, such as feedbacks between arctic marine biogeochemistry and climate, need to be reasonably and realistically modeled. This research first involved model development to improve the representation of marine sulfur biogeochemistry simulations to understand/diagnose the control of sea-ice-related processes on the variability of DMS dynamics. This study will help build GCM predictions that quantify the relative current and possible future influences of arctic marine ecosystems on the global climate system. Our overall research objective was to improve arctic marine biogeochemistry in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, now CESM). Working closely with the Climate Ocean Sea Ice Model (COSIM) team at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), we added 1 sea-ice algae and arctic DMS production and related biogeochemistry to the global Parallel Ocean Program model (POP) coupled to the LANL sea ice model (CICE). Both CICE and POP are core components of CESM. Our specific research objectives were: 1) Develop a state-of-the-art ice-ocean DMS model for application in climate models, using observations to constrain the most crucial parameters; 2) Improve the global marine sulfur model used in CESM by including DMS biogeochemistry in the Arctic; and 3) Assess how sea ice influences DMS dynamics in the arctic marine

  13. Physical Impacts of Climate Change on the Western US Electricity System: A Scoping Study

    SciTech Connect

    Coughlin, Katie; Goldman, Charles

    2008-12-01

    This paper presents an exploratory study of the possible physical impacts of climate change on the electric power system, and how these impacts could be incorporated into resource planning in the Western United States. While many aspects of climate change and energy have been discussed in the literature, there has not yet been a systematic review of the relationship between specific physical effects and the quantitative analyses that are commonly used in planning studies. The core of the problem is to understand how the electric system is vulnerable to physical weather risk, and how to make use of information from climate models to characterize the way these risks may evolve over time, including a treatment of uncertainty. In this paper, to provide the necessary technical background in climate science, we present an overview of the basic physics of climate and explain some of the methodologies used in climate modeling studies, particularly the importance of emissions scenarios. We also provide a brief survey of recent climate-related studies relevant to electric system planning in the Western US. To define the institutional context, we discuss the core elements of the resource and reliability planning processes used currently by utilities and by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. To illustrate more precisely how climate-related risk could be incorporated into modeling exercises, we discuss three idealized examples. Overall, we argue that existing methods of analysis can and should be extended to encompass the uncertainties related to future climate. While the focus here is on risk related to physical impacts, the same principles apply to a consideration of how future climate change policy decisions might impact the design and functioning of the electric grid. We conclude with some suggestions and recommendations on how to begin developing this approach within the existing electric system planning framework for the West.

  14. Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Biasutti, M.; Lobell, D. B.

    2015-12-01

    The already fragile agriculture production system in West Africa faces further challenges in meeting food security in the coming decades, primarily due to a fast increasing population and risks of climate change. Successful adaptation of agriculture should not only benefit in the current climate but should also reduce negative (or enhance positive) impacts for climate change. Assessment of various possible adaptation options and their uncertainties provides key information for prioritizing adaptation investments. Here, based on the several robust aspects of climate projections in this region (i.e. temperature increases and rainfall pattern shifts), we use two well-validated crop models (i.e. APSIM and SARRA-H) and an ensemble of downscaled climate forcing to assess five possible and realistic adaptation options (late sowing, intensification, thermal time increase, water harvesting and increased resilience to heat stress) in West Africa for the staple crop production of sorghum. We adopt a new assessment framework to account for both the impacts of adaptation options in current climate and their ability to reduce impacts of future climate change, and also consider changes in both mean yield and its variability. Our results reveal that most proposed "adaptation options" are not more beneficial in the future than in the current climate, i.e. not really reduce the climate change impacts. Increased temperature resilience during grain number formation period is the main adaptation that emerges. We also find that changing from the traditional to modern cultivar, and later sowing in West Sahel appear to be robust adaptations.

  15. Modeling the influence of climate change on watershed systems: Adaptation through targeted practices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dudula, John; Randhir, Timothy O.

    2016-10-01

    Climate change may influence hydrologic processes of watersheds (IPCC, 2013) and increased runoff may cause flooding, eroded stream banks, widening of stream channels, increased pollutant loading, and consequently impairment of aquatic life. The goal of this study was to quantify the potential impacts of climate change on watershed hydrologic processes and to evaluate scale and effectiveness of management practices for adaptation. We simulate baseline watershed conditions using the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) simulation model to examine the possible effects of changing climate on watershed processes. We also simulate the effects of adaptation and mitigation through specific best management strategies for various climatic scenarios. With continuing low-flow conditions and vulnerability to climate change, the Ipswich watershed is the focus of this study. We quantify fluxes in runoff, evapotranspiration, infiltration, sediment load, and nutrient concentrations under baseline and climate change scenarios (near and far future). We model adaptation options for mitigating climate effects on watershed processes using bioretention/raingarden Best Management Practices (BMPs). It was observed that climate change has a significant impact on watershed runoff and carefully designed and maintained BMPs at subwatershed scale can be effective in mitigating some of the problems related to stormwater runoff. Policy options include implementation of BMPs through education and incentives for scale-dependent and site specific bioretention units/raingardens to increase the resilience of the watershed system to current and future climate change.

  16. Teaching Earth System Science Using Climate Educational Modules Based on NASA and NOAA Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramirez, P. C.; LaDochy, S.; Patzert, W. C.; Willis, J. K.

    2011-12-01

    The Earth System Science Education Alliance (ESSEA) recently developed a set of climate related educational modules to be used by K-12 teachers. These modules incorporate recent NASA and NOAA resources in Earth Science education. In the summer of 2011, these modules were tested by in-service teachers in courses held at several college campuses. At California State University, Los Angeles, we reviewed two climate modules: The Great Ocean Conveyer Belt and Abrupt Climate Change (http://essea.strategies.org/module.php?module_id=148) and Sulfur Dioxide: Its Role in Climate Change (http://essea.strategies.org/module.php?module_id=168). For each module, 4-6 teachers formed a cohort to complete assignments and unit assessments and to evaluate the effectiveness of the module for use in their classroom. Each module presented the teachers with a task that enabled them to research and better understand the science behind the climate related topic. For The Great Ocean Conveyer Belt, teachers are tasked with evaluating the impacts of the slowing or stopping of the thermohaline circulation on climate. In the same module teachers are charged with determining the possibilities of an abrupt climate shift during this century such as happened in the past. For the Sulfur Dioxide module teachers investigated the climate implications of the occurrence of several major volcanic eruptions within a short time period, as well as the feasibility of using sulfates to geoengineer climate change. In completing module assignments, teachers must list what they already know about the topic as well as formulate questions that still need to be addressed. Teachers then model the related interactions between spheres comprising the earth system (atmosphere-lithosphere, for example) to evaluate possible environmental impacts. Finally, teachers applied their research results to create lesson plans for their students. At a time when climate change and global warming are important topics in science

  17. The actual goals of geoethics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nemec, Vaclav

    2014-05-01

    The most actual goals of geoethics have been formulated as results of the International Conference on Geoethics (October 2013) held at the geoethics birth-place Pribram (Czech Republic): In the sphere of education and public enlightenment an appropriate needed minimum know how of Earth sciences should be intensively promoted together with cultivating ethical way of thinking and acting for the sustainable well-being of the society. The actual activities of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Changes are not sustainable with the existing knowledge of the Earth sciences (as presented in the results of the 33rd and 34th International Geological Congresses). This knowledge should be incorporated into any further work of the IPCC. In the sphere of legislation in a large international co-operation following steps are needed: - to re-formulate the term of a "false alarm" and its legal consequences, - to demand very consequently the needed evaluation of existing risks, - to solve problems of rights of individuals and minorities in cases of the optimum use of mineral resources and of the optimum protection of the local population against emergency dangers and disasters; common good (well-being) must be considered as the priority when solving ethical dilemmas. The precaution principle should be applied in any decision making process. Earth scientists presenting their expert opinions are not exempted from civil, administrative or even criminal liabilities. Details must be established by national law and jurisprudence. The well known case of the L'Aquila earthquake (2009) should serve as a serious warning because of the proven misuse of geoethics for protecting top Italian seismologists responsible and sentenced for their inadequate superficial behaviour causing lot of human victims. Another recent scandal with the Himalayan fossil fraud will be also documented. A support is needed for any effort to analyze and to disclose the problems of the deformation of the contemporary

  18. Adapting the US Food System to Climate Change Goes Beyond the Farm Gate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Easterling, W. E.

    2014-12-01

    The literature on climate change effects on food and agriculture has concentrated primarily on how crops and livestock likely will be directly affected by climate variability and change and by elevated carbon dioxide. Integrated assessments have simulated large-scale economic response to shifting agricultural productivity caused by climate change, including possible changes in food costs and prices. A small but growing literature has shown how different facets of agricultural production inside the farm gate could be adapted to climate variability and change. Very little research has examined how the full food system (production, processing and storage, transportation and trade, and consumption) is likely to be affected by climate change and how different adaptation approaches will be required by different parts of the food system. This paper will share partial results of a major assessment sponsored by USDA to determine how climate change-induced changes in global food security could affect the US food system. Emphasis is given to understanding how adaptation strategies differ widely across the food system. A common thread, however, is risk management-based decision making. Technologies and management strategies may co-evolve with climate change but a risk management framework for implementing those technologies and strategies may provide a stable foundation.

  19. Cpl6: The New Extensible, High-Performance Parallel Coupler forthe Community Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Craig, Anthony P.; Jacob, Robert L.; Kauffman, Brain; Bettge,Tom; Larson, Jay; Ong, Everest; Ding, Chris; He, Yun

    2005-03-24

    Coupled climate models are large, multiphysics applications designed to simulate the Earth's climate and predict the response of the climate to any changes in the forcing or boundary conditions. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is a widely used state-of-art climate model that has released several versions to the climate community over the past ten years. Like many climate models, CCSM employs a coupler, a functional unit that coordinates the exchange of data between parts of climate system such as the atmosphere and ocean. This paper describes the new coupler, cpl6, contained in the latest version of CCSM,CCSM3. Cpl6 introduces distributed-memory parallelism to the coupler, a class library for important coupler functions, and a standardized interface for component models. Cpl6 is implemented entirely in Fortran90 and uses Model Coupling Toolkit as the base for most of its classes. Cpl6 gives improved performance over previous versions and scales well on multiple platforms.

  20. Teaching Scales in the Climate System: An example of interdisciplinary teaching and learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baehr, Johanna; Behrens, Jörn; Brüggemann, Michael; Frisius, Thomas; Glessmer, Mirjam S.; Hartmann, Jens; Hense, Inga; Kaleschke, Lars; Kutzbach, Lars; Rödder, Simone; Scheffran, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is commonly regarded as one of 21st century's grand challenges that needs to be addressed by conducting integrated research combining natural and social sciences. To meet this need, how to best train future climate researchers should be reconsidered. Here, we present our experience from a team-taught semester-long course with students of the international master program "Integrated Climate System Sciences" (ICSS) at the University of Hamburg, Germany. Ten lecturers with different backgrounds in physical, mathematical, biogeochemical and social sciences accompanied by a researcher trained in didactics prepared and regularly participated in a course which consisted of weekly classes. The foundation of the course was the use of the concept of 'scales' - climate varying on different temporal and spatial scales - by developing a joint definition of 'scales in the climate system' that is applicable in the natural sciences and in the social sciences. By applying this interdisciplinary definition of 'scales' to phenomena from all components of the climate system and the socio-economic dimensions, we aimed for an integrated description of the climate system. Following the concept of research-driven teaching and learning and using a variety of teaching techniques, the students designed their own scale diagram to illustrate climate-related phenomena in different disciplines. The highlight of the course was the presentation of individually developed scale diagrams by every student with all lecturers present. Based on the already conducted course, we currently re-design the course concept to be teachable by a similarly large group of lecturers but with alternating presence in class. With further refinement and also a currently ongoing documentation of the teaching material, we will continue to use the concept of 'scales' as a vehicle for teaching an integrated view of the climate system.

  1. Heat waves, climate change and eggplant harvests - simple models of climate systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Provenzale, Antonello

    2008-03-01

    I discuss a simple box model of soil-vegetation-atmosphere interactions that we recently introduced to study the insurgence of summer droughts at continental midlatitudes (D'Andrea et al, GRL 2006, Baudena et al, AWR 2007). I show that the model possesses multiple equilibria and that, for the same synoptic forcing, soil moisture at the beginning of summer and vegetation cover play a primary role in determining which equilibrium will be reached. We also observe a difference in the drought climatologies associated respectively with the dynamics of natural vegetation, capable of adapting to the prevailing soil moisture conditions, and with cultivated vegetation such as eggplant, that cannot spontaneously modify its areal extent. I conclude with some speculations on a conceptual model of the interaction between vegetation and climate at global scale. The results discussed in this talk are the product of joint work with Fabio D'Andrea (ENS, Paris) and Mara Baudena (ISAC-CNR).

  2. Influence of external climate forcing on coastal upwelling systems analysed in ensemble of past millennium climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tim, Nele; Zorita, Eduardo; Hünicke, Birgit; Yi, Xin; Emeis, Kay

    2016-04-01

    Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems are highly productive coastal ocean areas where nutrient rich, cold water upwells by the action of favorable winds. Observations over the 20th century and ocean sediment records, which may be indicative of upwelling, display an intensification due to stronger external climate forcing, such as increasing greenhouse gas concentrations or changes in solar irradiance. This intensification is compatible with the hypothesis put forward by Bakun (1990) that a stronger external radiative forcing should lead to a more intense coastal upwelling. Here, we analyze ensemble of simulations covering the past millennium with the aim of identifying and quantifying the role of external climate forcing on upwelling in the major Eastern Boundary Upwelling System. We analyse the decadal variability and centennial trends of upwelling in ensemble of simulations with the global climate model MPI-ESM covering the past millennium, the last 150 years and the next 100 years. The future simulations were driven by three IPCC scenarios of concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, RCP2.5, RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5. For the past millennium and the last 150 years, coastal upwelling does not show any imprint of external forcing. This result indicates that chaotic internal variability has dominated upwelling intensity in major upwelling regions over the last thousand years and even since industrialisation up to present. For the 21st century, all ensemble members show a consistent and significant intensification of upwelling in the strongest scenario RCP8.5 for the Benguela upwelling region, consistent and significant weakening for Morocco and California, and no significant change for the Peruvian upwelling. Weaker scenarios do not produce consistent long-term trends that are replicated in all ensemble members. The results are confirmed by analysing another ensemble of past millennium simulations with the model CESM-CAM5 (Community Earth System Model

  3. Intervening in Earth's climate system through space-based solar reflectors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salazar, F. J. T.; McInnes, C. R.; Winter, O. C.

    2016-07-01

    Several space-based climate engineering methods, including shading the Earth with a particle ring for active cooling, or the use of orbital reflectors to increase the total insolation of Mars for climate warming have been considered to modify planetary climates in a controller manner. In this study, solar reflectors on polar orbits are proposed to intervene in the Earth's climate system, involving near circular polar orbits normal to the ecliptic plane of the Earth. Similarly, a family of displaced polar orbits (non-Keplerian orbits) are also characterized to mitigate future natural climate variability, producing a modest global temperature increase, again to compensate for possible future cooling. These include deposition of aerosols in the stratosphere from large volcanic events. The two-body problem is considered, taking into account the effects of solar radiation pressure and the Earth's J2 oblateness perturbation.

  4. Assessing the relative effects of emissions, climate means, and variability on large water supply systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whateley, Sarah; Brown, Casey

    2016-11-01

    Some of the greatest societal risks of climate change rise from the potential impacts to water supply. Yet prescribing adaptation policies in the near term is made difficult by the uncertainty in climate projections at relevant spatial scales and the conflating effects of uncertainties in emissions, model error, and internal variability. In this work, a new framework is implemented to explore the vulnerability of reservoir systems in the northeastern U.S. to climate change and attribute vulnerabilities to changes in mean climate, natural variability, or emission scenarios. Analysis of variance is used to explore the contributions of uncertainties to system performance. Diagnosing the relative risks to water supply will help water resource engineers better adapt to uncertain future conditions. The results indicate that uncertainty in water supply system performance can be attributed mostly to uncertainty in internal variability over policy-relevant planning horizons, and thus, adaptation efforts should focus on managing variability.

  5. Evaluation of the Impact of Quality Management Systems on School Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Egido Gálvez, Inmaculada; Fernández Cruz, Francisco José; Fernández Díaz, Mª José

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Implementation of quality management systems in educational institutions has gradually increased over the last few decades, even though there are still questions about the actual usefulness of these systems for improving school processes and outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to take an in-depth look at the impact, understood as…

  6. Developing the next-generation climate system models: challenges and achievements.

    PubMed

    Slingo, Julia; Bates, Kevin; Nikiforakis, Nikos; Piggott, Matthew; Roberts, Malcolm; Shaffrey, Len; Stevens, Ian; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Weller, Hilary

    2009-03-13

    Although climate models have been improving in accuracy and efficiency over the past few decades, it now seems that these incremental improvements may be slowing. As tera/petascale computing becomes massively parallel, our legacy codes are less suitable, and even with the increased resolution that we are now beginning to use, these models cannot represent the multiscale nature of the climate system. This paper argues that it may be time to reconsider the use of adaptive mesh refinement for weather and climate forecasting in order to achieve good scaling and representation of the wide range of spatial scales in the atmosphere and ocean. Furthermore, the challenge of introducing living organisms and human responses into climate system models is only just beginning to be tackled. We do not yet have a clear framework in which to approach the problem, but it is likely to cover such a huge number of different scales and processes that radically different methods may have to be considered. The challenges of multiscale modelling and petascale computing provide an opportunity to consider a fresh approach to numerical modelling of the climate (or Earth) system, which takes advantage of the computational fluid dynamics developments in other fields and brings new perspectives on how to incorporate Earth system processes. This paper reviews some of the current issues in climate (and, by implication, Earth) system modelling, and asks the question whether a new generation of models is needed to tackle these problems.

  7. Evolutionary responses to climate change in parasitic systems.

    PubMed

    Chaianunporn, Thotsapol; Hovestadt, Thomas

    2015-08-01

    Species may respond to climate change in many ecological and evolutionary ways. In this simulation study, we focus on the concurrent evolution of three traits in response to climate change, namely dispersal probability, temperature tolerance (or niche width), and temperature preference (optimal habitat). More specifically, we consider evolutionary responses in host species involved in different types of interaction, that is parasitism or commensalism, and for low or high costs of a temperature tolerance-fertility trade-off (cost of generalization). We find that host species potentially evolve all three traits simultaneously in response to increasing temperature but that the evolutionary response interacts and may be compensatory depending on the conditions. The evolutionary adjustment of temperature preference is slower in the parasitism than in commensalism scenario. Parasitism, in turn, selects for higher temperature tolerance and increased dispersal. High costs for temperature tolerance (i.e. generalization) restrict evolution of tolerance and thus lead to a faster response in temperature preference than that observed under low costs. These results emphasize the possible role of biotic interactions and the importance of 'multidimensional' evolutionary responses to climate change.

  8. The Geographic Climate Information System Project (GEOCLIMA): Overview and preliminary results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Melas, D.; Vaitis, M.; Anadranistakis, E.; Symeonidis, P.; Pantelopoulos, S.

    2012-04-01

    The project GEOCLIMA aims at developing an integrated Geographic Information System (GIS) allowing the user to manage, analyze and visualize the information which is directly or indirectly related to climate and its future projections in Greece. The main components of the project are: a) collection and homogenization of climate and environmental related information, b) estimation of future climate change based on existing regional climate model (RCM) simulations as well as a supplementary high resolution (10 km x 10 km) simulation over the period 1961-2100 using RegCM3, c) compilation of an integrated uniform geographic database, and d) mapping of climate data, creation of digital thematic maps, and development of the integrated web GIS application. This paper provides an overview of the ongoing research efforts and preliminary results of the project. First, the trends in the annual and seasonal time series of precipitation and air temperature observations for all available stations in Greece are assessed. Then the set-up of the high resolution RCM simulation (10 km x 10 km) is discussed with respect to the selected convective scheme. Finally, the relationship of climatic variables with geophysical features over Greece such as altitude, location, distance from the sea, slope, aspect, distance from climatic barriers, land cover etc) is investigated, to support climate mapping. The research has been co-financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009.

  9. Agent-based Model for the Coupled Human-Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zvoleff, A.; Werner, B.

    2006-12-01

    Integrated assessment models have been used to predict the outcome of coupled economic growth, resource use, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change, both for scientific and policy purposes. These models generally have employed significant simplifications that suppress nonlinearities and the possibility of multiple equilibria in both their economic (DeCanio, 2005) and climate (Schneider and Kuntz-Duriseti, 2002) components. As one step toward exploring general features of the nonlinear dynamics of the coupled system, we have developed a series of variations on the well studied RICE and DICE models, which employ different forms of agent-based market dynamics and "climate surprises." Markets are introduced through the replacement of the production function of the DICE/RICE models with an agent-based market modeling the interactions of producers, policymakers, and consumer agents. Technological change and population growth are treated endogenously. Climate surprises are representations of positive (for example, ice sheet collapse) or negative (for example, increased aerosols from desertification) feedbacks that are turned on with probability depending on warming. Initial results point toward the possibility of large amplitude instabilities in the coupled human-climate system owing to the mismatch between short outlook market dynamics and long term climate responses. Implications for predictability of future climate will be discussed. Supported by the Andrew W Mellon Foundation and the UC Academic Senate.

  10. Detecting and Attributing External Influences on the Climate System: A Review of Recent Advances

    SciTech Connect

    Barnett, T; Zwiers, F; Hegerl, G; Allen, M; Crowley, T; Gillett, N; Hasselmann, K; Jones, P; Santer, B; Schnur, R; Stott, P; Taylor, K; Tett, S

    2005-01-26

    We review recent research that assesses evidence for the detection of anthropogenic and natural external influences on the climate. Externally driven climate change has been detected by a number of investigators in independent data covering many parts of the climate system, including surface temperature on global and large regional scales, ocean-heat content, atmospheric circulation, and variables of the free atmosphere, such as atmospheric temperature and tropopause height. The influence of external forcing is also clearly discernible in reconstructions of hemispheric scale temperature of the last millennium. These observed climate changes are very unlikely to be due only to natural internal climate variability, and they are consistent with the responses to anthropogenic and natural external forcing of the climate system that are simulated with climate models. The evidence indicates that natural drivers such as solar variability and volcanic activity are at most partially responsible for the large-scale temperature changes observed over the past century, and that a large fraction of the warming over the last 50 years can be attributed to greenhouse gas increases. Thus the recent research supports and strengthens the IPCC Third Assessment Report conclusion that ''most of the global warming over the past 50 years is likely due to the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gases''.

  11. The changing effects of Alaska’s boreal forests on the climate system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, Anthony; Chapin, F.S.; Rupp, T.S.

    2010-01-01

    In the boreal forests of Alaska, recent changes in climate have influenced the exchange of trace gases, water, and energy between these forests and the atmosphere. These changes in the structure and function of boreal forests can then feed back to impact regional and global climates. In this manuscript, we examine the type and magnitude of the climate feedbacks from boreal forests in Alaska. Research generally suggests that the net effect of a warming climate is a positive regional feedback to warming. Currently, the primary positive climate feedbacks are likely related to decreases in surface albedo due to decreases in snow cover. Fewer negative feedbacks have been identified, and they may not be large enough to counterbalance the large positive feedbacks. These positive feedbacks are most pronounced at the regional scale and reduce the resilience of the boreal vegetation – climate system by amplifying the rate of regional warming. Given the recent warming in this region, the large variety of associated mechanisms that can alter terrestrial ecosystems and influence the climate system, and a reduction in the boreal forest resilience, there is a strong need to continue to quantify and evaluate the feedback pathways.

  12. Ecological Systems Theory: Using Spheres of Influence to Support Small-unit Climate and Training

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-03-01

    Research Report 1997 Ecological Systems Theory: Using Spheres of Influence to Support Small-unit Climate and Training...YYYY) April 2016 2. REPORT TYPE Final 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) July 2015 to January 2016 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Ecological Systems... ecological systems theory takes into account the roles, responsibilities, and influence of individuals inside and outside of the team. In the Army

  13. Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibson, Peter B.; Uotila, Petteri; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Pitman, Andrew J.

    2016-10-01

    Climate models are our principal tool for generating the projections used to inform climate change policy. Our confidence in projections depends, in part, on how realistically they simulate present day climate and associated variability over a range of time scales. Traditionally, climate models are less commonly assessed at time scales relevant to daily weather systems. Here we explore the utility of a self-organizing maps (SOMs) procedure for evaluating the frequency, persistence and transitions of daily synoptic systems in the Australian region simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models. In terms of skill in simulating the climatological frequency of synoptic systems, large spread was observed between models. A positive association between all metrics was found, implying that relative skill in simulating the persistence and transitions of systems is related to skill in simulating the climatological frequency. Considering all models and metrics collectively, model performance was found to be related to model horizontal resolution but unrelated to vertical resolution or representation of the stratosphere. In terms of the SOM procedure, the timespan over which evaluation was performed had some influence on model performance skill measures, as did the number of circulation types examined. These findings have implications for selecting models most useful for future projections over the Australian region, particularly for projections related to synoptic scale processes and phenomena. More broadly, this study has demonstrated the utility of the SOMs procedure in providing a process-based evaluation of climate models.

  14. The United States Cooperative Climate-Observing Systems: Reflections and Recommendations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinson, David A.

    1990-06-01

    The system for the collection and archiving of climatic data from approximately 7000 cooperative observing stations across the United States is in need of improvement. Despite the efforts of many dedicated volunteers and professionals, suspect or incomplete data continue to enter the national climate archive. Cooperative observers need further education regarding the importance of collecting complete and accurate data. The transition to the Maximum/Minimum Temperature Systems (MMTS) from the former liquid-in-glass thermometers mounted in Cotton Region shelters needs to be better coordinated, particularly with respect to the continuity of temperature data. The role of the Cooperative Program Managers in overseeing the physical well being of the network and the quality of data emanating from its needs to be strengthened. A continuation of efforts recently begun at the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) to improve the digitization and quality-control procedures employed in data archiving is required. These improvements might be fulfilled within the present National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) infrastructure. Another avenue which might be explored is the amalgamation of all aspects of the United States climate-observing system under the supervision of a new department within NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). Regardless of how this is achieved, now is the time to improve the system. There has never been a greater need for a national climatic database of superlative quality, whether it be for investigations of climate change, meteorological research, agricultural planning and assessment, engineering, environmental-impact assessment, utilities planning, or litigation.

  15. Methodological discussion for interdisciplinary project on the effects of climatic variability on cropping systems.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capa-Morocho, M.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Rodríguez-Fonseca, B.

    2012-04-01

    The Campus of International Excellence Moncloa (CEI, 2009) is a joint project of the Universities Complutense (UCM) and Politécnica of Madrid (UPM) which aims to promote connectivity between both of them in a context of scientific excellence. Within this framework an interdisciplinary doctoral Thesis is being developed, whose methodological line is presented here to collect the comments from the international scientific community. The aim of the Thesis is to assess the effect of the climatic variability in the agricultural systems of the Iberian Peninsula. It takes place between the group of agricultural systems (AgSystems) of the UPM and the TROPA group of Climatic Variability of the UCM. The provisional methodology consists on using time series of simulated crop yields and to correlate the monthly deviations with different atmospheric and oceanic anomalous fields in order to characterize the climate variability patterns affecting the fluctuations in productivity. We use observed data of climate reanalysis, general circulation models and crop simulation models. We have identified a common tool to connect both modeling disciplines: MATLAB software is used to program the functions used in data processing, for both climate and agricultural data. In this paper the methodological scheme will be shown. Both the potentials and synergies that we are finding between the group of modelers of climate and cropping systems, as well as the problems and methodological points to be resolved will be specified. We invite researchers with similar experiences to contribute to this discussion.

  16. Leadership, Organizational Climate, and Working Alliance in a Children's Mental Health Service System

    PubMed Central

    Green, Amy E.; Albanese, Brian J.; Cafri, Guy; Aarons, Gregory A.

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this study was to examine the relationships of transformational leadership and organizational climate with working alliance, in a children's mental health service system. Using multilevel structural equation modeling, the effect of leadership on working alliance was mediated by organizational climate. These results suggest that supervisors may be able to impact quality of care through improving workplace climate. Organizational factors should be considered in efforts to improve public sector services. Understanding these issues is important for program leaders, mental health service providers, and consumers because they can affect both the way services are delivered and ultimately, clinical outcomes. PMID:24323137

  17. Leadership, organizational climate, and working alliance in a children's mental health service system.

    PubMed

    Green, Amy E; Albanese, Brian J; Cafri, Guy; Aarons, Gregory A

    2014-10-01

    The goal of this study was to examine the relationships of transformational leadership and organizational climate with working alliance, in a children's mental health service system. Using multilevel structural equation modeling, the effect of leadership on working alliance was mediated by organizational climate. These results suggest that supervisors may be able to impact quality of care through improving workplace climate. Organizational factors should be considered in efforts to improve public sector services. Understanding these issues is important for program leaders, mental health service providers, and consumers because they can affect both the way services are delivered and ultimately, clinical outcomes.

  18. Application of geographic information systems in the field of strategic planning in climate politics via the example of drinking water service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Selmeczi, Pál; Rotárné Szalkai, Ágnes; Homolya, Emese

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is one of the most significant issues of the 21th century that concerns particular regions to a different extent depending on their societal, economic and environmental characteristics. According to the actual cognition and the outcome of researches so far Hungary is an area of considerable vulnerability both in the global and the regional scales. A major understanding of past years is that efforts for prevention are insufficient and that special care is necessary for the adaptation techniques to climate change and to strengthen adaptive capacity. This knowledge has led to the development of an adaptive strategy [COM/2013/0216] by the European Union in 2013 in which the necessity for local and regional actions is highlighted. Adaptation has been asserted to be an issue of considerable significance both in national and international strategy development and regulation in the latest years. Strategic integration of adaptation to climate change on the sectorial and departmental levels requires a wide range of information about the climate vulnerability of societal, economic and environmental systems, however, competent information necessary for the determination of vulnerability is in many cases insufficient. Furthermore, due to the lack of accordance in data systems of different sectors the research on climate vulnerability, owing to complex data needs, is difficult to carry out. Considering all these facts, the development of an extensive geographic information system and an assessment methodology, integrating information on the environment, society and economy and, as an objective background, providing support for planning and decision making in the fields of adaptation and climate politics, is necessary. In the frames of a comprehensive professional and governmental cooperation the work on the National Adaptation Geo-information System (NAGiS) has begun in Hungary in 2014, aiming for the development of a geographic information system of

  19. Diminished Wastewater Treatment: Evaluation of Septic System Performance Under a Climate Change Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cooper, J.; Loomis, G.; Kalen, D.; Boving, T. B.; Morales, I.; Amador, J.

    2015-12-01

    The effects of climate change are expected to reduce the ability of soil-based onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS), to treat domestic wastewater. In the northeastern U.S., the projected increase in atmospheric temperature, elevation of water tables from rising sea levels, and heightened precipitation will reduce the volume of unsaturated soil and oxygen available for treatment. Incomplete removal of contaminants may lead to transport of pathogens, nutrients, and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) to groundwater, increasing the risk to public health and likelihood of eutrophying aquatic ecosystems. Advanced OWTS, which include pre-treatment steps and provide unsaturated drainfields of greater volume relative to conventional OWTS, are expected to be more resilient to climate change. We used intact soil mesocosms to quantify water quality functions for two advanced shallow narrow drainfield types and a conventional drainfield under a current climate scenario and a moderate climate change scenario of 30 cm rise in water table and 5°C increase in soil temperature. While no fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) was released under the current climate scenario, up to 109 CFU FCB/mL (conventional) and up to 20 CFU FCB/mL (shallow narrow) were released under the climate change scenario. Total P removal rates dropped from 100% to 54% (conventional) and 71% (shallow narrow) under the climate change scenario. Total N removal averaged 17% under both climate scenarios in the conventional, but dropped from 5.4% to 0% in the shallow narrow under the climate change scenario, with additional leaching of N in excess of inputs indicating release of previously held N. No significant difference was observed between scenarios for BOD removal. The initial data indicate that while advanced OWTS retain more function under the climate change scenario, all three drainfield types experience some diminished treatment capacity.

  20. A Power Efficient Exaflop Computer Design for Global Cloud System Resolving Climate Models.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wehner, M. F.; Oliker, L.; Shalf, J.

    2008-12-01

    Exascale computers would allow routine ensemble modeling of the global climate system at the cloud system resolving scale. Power and cost requirements of traditional architecture systems are likely to delay such capability for many years. We present an alternative route to the exascale using embedded processor technology to design a system optimized for ultra high resolution climate modeling. These power efficient processors, used in consumer electronic devices such as mobile phones, portable music players, cameras, etc., can be tailored to the specific needs of scientific computing. We project that a system capable of integrating a kilometer scale climate model a thousand times faster than real time could be designed and built in a five year time scale for US$75M with a power consumption of 3MW. This is cheaper, more power efficient and sooner than any other existing technology.

  1. Leaf physiognomy and climate: Are monsoon systems different?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacques, Frédéric M. B.; Su, Tao; Spicer, Robert A.; Xing, Yaowu; Huang, Yongjiang; Wang, Weiming; Zhou, Zhekun

    2011-03-01

    Our understanding of past climatic changes depends on our ability to obtain reliable palaeoclimate reconstructions. Climate Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program (CLAMP) uses the physiognomy of woody dicot leaf assemblages to quantitatively reconstruct terrestrial palaeoclimates. However, the present calibrations do not always allow us to reconstruct correctly the climate of some regions due to differing palaeofloristic histories. Present calibrations are also inappropriate for regions experiencing strong monsoon regimes. To help solve this problem, we have established a new calibration that can accommodate monsoonal climates in Asia. Our new calibration is based on the Physg3brcAZ dataset with 45 new Chinese sites added. These Chinese sites are taken from humid to mesic vegetations across China, and all are influenced by monsoonal conditions to some extent. They plot in a distinct part of physiognomic space, whether they are analysed as passive or active samples. The standard deviations for the new monsoonal calibration (1.25 °C for MAT and 217.7 mm for GSP) are in the same range as those observed for previous calibrations. The new monsoonal calibration was tested using a cross validation procedure. The estimates derived from the new monsoonal calibration (PhysgAsia1) for the Chinese sites are more accurate than those obtained from the Physg3brcAZ calibration, especially for the moisture related parameters. The mean absolute error for GSP of the Chinese sites is 294.6 mm in the new monsoonal calibration, whereas it was 1609.6 mm in the Physg3brcAZ calibration. Results for the three wettest months and three driest months are also more accurate and precise, which allows us to study the seasonality of the precipitation, and hence the monsoon. The new monsoonal calibration also gives accurate results for enthalpy reconstruction. Enthalpy is a parameter that is used for palaeoaltimetry, the new calibration is therefore useful for studies of land surface height changes in

  2. Group Counseling for Self-Actualization.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Streich, William H.; Keeler, Douglas J.

    Self-concept, creativity, growth orientation, an integrated value system, and receptiveness to new experiences are considered to be crucial variables to the self-actualization process. A regular, year-long group counseling program was conducted with 85 randomly selected gifted secondary students in the Farmington, Connecticut Public Schools. A…

  3. Long-term climate sensitivity of an integrated water supply system: The role of irrigation.

    PubMed

    Guyennon, Nicolas; Romano, Emanuele; Portoghese, Ivan

    2016-09-15

    The assessment of the impact of long-term climate variability on water supply systems depends not only on possible variations of the resources availability, but also on the variation of the demand. In this framework, a robust estimation of direct (climate induced) and indirect (anthropogenically induced) effects of climate change is mandatory to design mitigation measures, especially in those regions of the planet where the groundwater equilibrium is strongly perturbed by exploitations for irrigation purposes. The main goal of this contribution is to propose a comprehensive model that integrates distributed crop water requirements with surface and groundwater mass balance, able to consider management rules of the water supply system. The proposed overall model, implemented, calibrated and validated for the case study of the Fortore water supply system (Apulia region, South Italy), permits to simulate the conjunctive use of the water from a surface artificial reservoir and from groundwater. The relative contributions of groundwater recharges and withdrawals to the aquifer stress have been evaluated under different climate perturbations, with emphasis on irrigation practices. Results point out that irrigated agriculture primarily affects groundwater discharge, indicating that ecosystem services connected to river base flow are particularly exposed to climate variation in irrigated areas. Moreover, findings show that the recharge both to surface and to groundwater is mainly affected by drier climate conditions, while hotter conditions have a major impact on the water demand. The non-linearity arising from combined drier and hotter conditions may exacerbate the aquifer stress by exposing it to massive sea-water intrusion.

  4. Climate and atmosphere simulator for experiments on ecological systems in changing environments.

    PubMed

    Verdier, Bruno; Jouanneau, Isabelle; Simonnet, Benoit; Rabin, Christian; Van Dooren, Tom J M; Delpierre, Nicolas; Clobert, Jean; Abbadie, Luc; Ferrière, Régis; Le Galliard, Jean-François

    2014-01-01

    Grand challenges in global change research and environmental science raise the need for replicated experiments on ecosystems subjected to controlled changes in multiple environmental factors. We designed and developed the Ecolab as a variable climate and atmosphere simulator for multifactor experimentation on natural or artificial ecosystems. The Ecolab integrates atmosphere conditioning technology optimized for accuracy and reliability. The centerpiece is a highly contained, 13-m(3) chamber to host communities of aquatic and terrestrial species and control climate (temperature, humidity, rainfall, irradiance) and atmosphere conditions (O2 and CO2 concentrations). Temperature in the atmosphere and in the water or soil column can be controlled independently of each other. All climatic and atmospheric variables can be programmed to follow dynamical trajectories and simulate gradual as well as step changes. We demonstrate the Ecolab's capacity to simulate a broad range of atmospheric and climatic conditions, their diurnal and seasonal variations, and to support the growth of a model terrestrial plant in two contrasting climate scenarios. The adaptability of the Ecolab design makes it possible to study interactions between variable climate-atmosphere factors and biotic disturbances. Developed as an open-access, multichamber platform, this equipment is available to the international scientific community for exploring interactions and feedbacks between ecological and climate systems.

  5. Self-organization of the climate system: Synchronized polar and oceanic teleconnections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reischmann, Elizabeth Piccard

    Synchronization is a widespread phenomenon in nonlinear, physical systems. It describes the phenomena of two or more weakly interacting, nonlinear oscillators adjust their natural frequencies until they come into phase and frequency lock. This behavior has been observed in biological, chemical and electronic systems, including neurons, fireflies, and computers, but has not been widely studied in climate. This thesis presents a study of several major examples of synchronized climatic systems, starting with ice age timings seemingly caused by the global climate's gradual synchronization to the Earth's 413kyr orbital eccentricity band, which may be responsible for the shift of ice age timings and amplitudes at the Mid-Pleistocene transition. The focus of the thesis, however, is centered the second major example of stable synchronization in the climate system: the continuous, 90 degree phase relationship of the polar climate signals for the entirety of the available ice record. The existence of a relationship between polar climates has been widely observed since ice core proxies became available in both Greenland and Antarctica. However, my work focuses on refining this phase relationship, utilizing it's linear nature to apply deconvolution and establish an energy transfer function. This transfer function shows a distinctly singular frequency, suggesting that climate signal is predominately communicated north to south with a period of 1.6kyrs. This narrows down possible mechanisms of polar connection dramatically, and is further investigated via a collection of intermediate proxy datasets and a set of more contemporary, synchronized, sea surface temperature dipoles. While the former fails to show any strong indication of the nature of the polar signal due in part to the overwhelming uncertainties present on the centennial and millennial scales, the latter demonstrates a large set of synchronized climate oscillations exist, communicate in a variety of networks, and have

  6. The impacts of climate change and urbanisation on drainage in Helsingborg, Sweden: Combined sewer system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semadeni-Davies, Annette; Hernebring, Claes; Svensson, Gilbert; Gustafsson, Lars-Göran

    2008-02-01

    SummaryAssessment of the potential impact of climate change on water systems has been an essential part of hydrological research over the last couple of decades. However, the notion that such assessments should also include technological, demographic and land use changes is relatively recent. In this study, the potential impacts of climate change and continued urbanisation on waste and stormwater flows in the combined sewer of central Helsingborg, South Sweden, have been assessed using a series of DHI MOUSE simulations run with present conditions as well as two climate change scenarios and three progressive urbanisation storylines. At present, overflows of untreated wastewater following heavy rainfalls are a major source of pollution to the coastal receiving waters and there is a worry that increased rainfall could exacerbate the problem. Sewer flows resulting from different urbanisation storylines were simulated for two 10-year periods corresponding to present (1994-2003) and future climates (nominally 2081-2090). In all, 12 simulations were made. Climate change was simulated by altering a high-resolution rainfall record according to the climate-change signal derived from a regional climate model. Urbanisation was simulated by altering model parameters to reflect current trends in demographics and water management. It was found that city growth and projected increases in precipitation, both together and alone, are set to worsen the current drainage problems. Conversely, system renovation and installation of sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS) has a positive effect on the urban environment in general and can largely allay the adverse impacts of both urbanisation and climate change.

  7. The computational future for climate and Earth system models: on the path to petaflop and beyond.

    PubMed

    Washington, Warren M; Buja, Lawrence; Craig, Anthony

    2009-03-13

    The development of the climate and Earth system models has had a long history, starting with the building of individual atmospheric, ocean, sea ice, land vegetation, biogeochemical, glacial and ecological model components. The early researchers were much aware of the long-term goal of building the Earth system models that would go beyond what is usually included in the climate models by adding interactive biogeochemical interactions. In the early days, the progress was limited by computer capability, as well as by our knowledge of the physical and chemical processes. Over the last few decades, there has been much improved knowledge, better observations for validation and more powerful supercomputer systems that are increasingly meeting the new challenges of comprehensive models. Some of the climate model history will be presented, along with some of the successes and difficulties encountered with present-day supercomputer systems.

  8. Characterization of the Dynamics of Climate Systems and Identification of Missing Mechanisms Impacting the Long Term Predictive Capabilities of Global Climate Models Utilizing Dynamical Systems Approaches to the Analysis of Observed and Modeled Climate

    SciTech Connect

    Bhatt, Uma S.; Wackerbauer, Renate; Polyakov, Igor V.; Newman, David E.; Sanchez, Raul E.

    2015-11-13

    The goal of this research was to apply fractional and non-linear analysis techniques in order to develop a more complete characterization of climate change and variability for the oceanic, sea ice and atmospheric components of the Earth System. This research applied two measures of dynamical characteristics of time series, the R/S method of calculating the Hurst exponent and Renyi entropy, to observational and modeled climate data in order to evaluate how well climate models capture the long-term dynamics evident in observations. Fractional diffusion analysis was applied to ARGO ocean buoy data to quantify ocean transport. Self organized maps were applied to North Pacific sea level pressure and analyzed in ways to improve seasonal predictability for Alaska fire weather. This body of research shows that these methods can be used to evaluate climate models and shed light on climate mechanisms (i.e., understanding why something happens). With further research, these methods show promise for improving seasonal to longer time scale forecasts of climate.

  9. A multi-resolution method for climate system modeling: application of Spherical Centroidal A multi-resolution method for climate system modeling: Application of Spherical Centroidal Voroni Tessellations

    SciTech Connect

    Ringler, Todd D; Gunzburger, Max; Ju, Lili

    2008-01-01

    During the next decade and beyond, climate system models will be challenged to resolve scales and processes that are far beyond their current scope. Each climate system component has its prototypical example of an unresolved process that may strongly influence the global climate system, ranging from eddy activity within ocean models, to ice streams within ice sheet models, to surface hydrological processes within land system models, to cloud processes within atmosphere models. These new demands will almost certainly result in the develop of multi-resolution schemes that are able, at least regional to faithfully simulate these fine-scale processes. Spherical Centroidal Voronoi Tessellations (SCVTs) offer one potential path toward the development of robust, multi-resolution climate system component models, SCVTs allow for the generation of high quality Voronoi diagrams and Delaunay triangulations through the use of an intuitive, user-defined density function, each of the examples provided, this method results in high-quality meshes where the quality measures are guaranteed to improve as the number of nodes is increased. Real-world examples are developed for the Greenland ice sheet and the North Atlantic ocean. Idealized examples are developed for ocean-ice shelf interaction and for regional atmospheric modeling. In addition to defining, developing and exhibiting SCVTs, we pair this mesh generation technique with a previously developed finite-volume method. Our numerical example is based on the nonlinear shallow-water equations spanning the entire surface of the sphere. This example is used to elucidate both the potential benefits of this multi-resolution method and the challenges ahead.

  10. Load calculation and system evaluation for electric vehicle climate control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aceves, S. M.; Comfort, W. J., III

    1994-09-01

    This paper presents an analysis of the applicability of alternative systems for electric vehicle (EV) heating and air conditioning (HVAC). The paper consists of two parts. The first part is a cooling and heating load calculation for electric vehicles. The second part is an evaluation of several systems that can provide the desired cooling and heating in EV's. These systems are ranked according to their overall weight. Theoverall weight is calculated by adding the system weight and the weight of the battery necessary to provide energy for system operation. The system with the minimum overall weight is considered to be the best, because minimum vehicle weight decreases the energy required for propulsion, and therefore increases the vehicle range. Three systems are considered as the best choices for EV HVAC. These are, vapor compression, ice storage and adsorption systems. These systems are evaluated, including calculations of system weight, system volume, and COP. The paper also includes a calculation on how the battery energy storage capacity affects the overall system weights and the selection of the optimum system. The results indicate that, at the conditions analyzed in this paper, an ice storage system has the minimum weight of all the systems considered. Vapor compression air conditioners become the system with the minimum weight for battery storage capacities above 230 kJ/kg.

  11. Mars - The regolith-atmosphere-cap system and climate change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fanale, F. P.; Salvail, J. R.; Banerdt, W. B.; Saunders, R. S.

    1982-01-01

    A model is derived for the prediction of the Martian regolith-atmosphere-cap CO2 regime's behavior, as well as for the description of the roly of the regime in climate change, through descriptions of the time-temperature histories of 90 regolith 'chunks' on a latitude-depth grid. The influence of differences in regolith adsorption laws for basalt and clay, and the influence of variations in regolith depth with (1) latitude, (2) regolith thermal diffusivity, and (3) total exchangeable CO2 inventory on predicted variations in atmospheric pressure and cap mass, are examined. It is found that the atmosphere acts as a low capacity conduit between two reservoirs through which 10-100 times the current atmospheric mass of CO2 flows. The exchange between the reservoirs is driven by obliquity variations, with the polar cap the dominant CO2 sink at low obliquity and the regolith dominating at high obliquity.

  12. Climate variability and Dinophysis acuta blooms in an upwelling system.

    PubMed

    Díaz, Patricio A; Ruiz-Villarreal, Manuel; Pazos, Yolanda; Moita, Teresa; Reguera, Beatriz

    2016-03-01

    Dinophysis acuta is a frequent seasonal lipophilic toxin producer in European Atlantic coastal waters associated with thermal stratification. In the Galician Rías, populations of D. acuta with their epicentre located off Aveiro (northern Portugal), typically co-occur with and follow those of Dinophysis acuminata during the upwelling transition (early autumn) as a result of longshore transport. During hotter than average summers, D. acuta blooms also occur in August in the Rías, when they replace D. acuminata. Here we examined a 30-year (1985-2014) time series of D. acuta from samples collected by the same method in the Galician Rías. Our main objective was to identify patterns of distribution and their relation with climate variability, and to explain the exceptional summer blooms of D. acuta in 1989-1990. A dome-shaped relationship was found between summer upwelling intensity and D. acuta blooms; cell maxima were associated with conditions where the balance between upwelling intensity and heating, leading to deepened thermoclines, combined with tidal phase (3 days after neap tides) created windows of opportunity for this species. The application of a generalized additive model based on biological (D. acuta inoculum) and environmental predictors (Cumulative June-August upwelling CUIJJA, average June-August SSTJJA and tidal range) explained more than 70% of the deviance for the exceptional summer blooms of D. acuta, through a combination of moderate (35,000-50,000m(3)s(-1)km(-1)) summer upwelling (CUIJJA), thermal stratification (SSTJJA>17°C) and moderate tidal range (∼2.5m), provided D. acuta cells (inoculum) were present in July. There was no evidence of increasing trends in D. acuta bloom frequency/intensity nor a clear relationship with NAO or other long-term climatic cycles. Instead, the exceptional summer blooms of 1989-1990 appeared linked to extreme hydroclimatic anomalies (high positive anomalies in SST and NAO index), which affected most of the

  13. Monitoring and Modeling the Tibetan Plateau's climate system and its impact on East Asia.

    PubMed

    Ma, Yaoming; Ma, Weiqiang; Zhong, Lei; Hu, Zeyong; Li, Maoshan; Zhu, Zhikun; Han, Cunbo; Wang, Binbin; Liu, Xin

    2017-03-13

    The Tibetan Plateau is an important water source in Asia. As the "Third Pole" of the Earth, the Tibetan Plateau has significant dynamic and thermal effects on East Asian climate patterns, the Asian monsoon process and atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. However, little systematic knowledge is available regarding the changing climate system of the Tibetan Plateau and the mechanisms underlying its impact on East Asia. This study was based on "water-cryosphere-atmosphere-biology" multi-sphere interactions, primarily considering global climate change in relation to the Tibetan Plateau -East Asia climate system and its mechanisms. This study also analyzed the Tibetan Plateau to clarify global climate change by considering multi-sphere energy and water processes. Additionally, the impacts of climate change in East Asia and the associated impact mechanisms were revealed, and changes in water cycle processes and water conversion mechanisms were studied. The changes in surface thermal anomalies, vegetation, local circulation and the atmospheric heat source on the Tibetan Plateau were studied, specifically, their effects on the East Asian monsoon and energy balance mechanisms. Additionally, the relationships between heating mechanisms and monsoon changes were explored.

  14. The DSET Tool Library: A software approach to enable data exchange between climate system models

    SciTech Connect

    McCormick, J.

    1994-12-01

    Climate modeling is a computationally intensive process. Until recently computers were not powerful enough to perform the complex calculations required to simulate the earth`s climate. As a result standalone programs were created that represent components of the earth`s climate (e.g., Atmospheric Circulation Model). However, recent advances in computing, including massively parallel computing, make it possible to couple the components forming a complete earth climate simulation. The ability to couple different climate model components will significantly improve our ability to predict climate accurately and reliably. Historically each major component of the coupled earth simulation is a standalone program designed independently with different coordinate systems and data representations. In order for two component models to be coupled, the data of one model must be mapped to the coordinate system of the second model. The focus of this project is to provide a general tool to facilitate the mapping of data between simulation components, with an emphasis on using object-oriented programming techniques to provide polynomial interpolation, line and area weighting, and aggregation services.

  15. Monitoring and Modeling the Tibetan Plateau’s climate system and its impact on East Asia

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Yaoming; Ma, Weiqiang; Zhong, Lei; Hu, Zeyong; Li, Maoshan; Zhu, Zhikun; Han, Cunbo; Wang, Binbin; Liu, Xin

    2017-01-01

    The Tibetan Plateau is an important water source in Asia. As the “Third Pole” of the Earth, the Tibetan Plateau has significant dynamic and thermal effects on East Asian climate patterns, the Asian monsoon process and atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. However, little systematic knowledge is available regarding the changing climate system of the Tibetan Plateau and the mechanisms underlying its impact on East Asia. This study was based on “water-cryosphere-atmosphere-biology” multi-sphere interactions, primarily considering global climate change in relation to the Tibetan Plateau -East Asia climate system and its mechanisms. This study also analyzed the Tibetan Plateau to clarify global climate change by considering multi-sphere energy and water processes. Additionally, the impacts of climate change in East Asia and the associated impact mechanisms were revealed, and changes in water cycle processes and water conversion mechanisms were studied. The changes in surface thermal anomalies, vegetation, local circulation and the atmospheric heat source on the Tibetan Plateau were studied, specifically, their effects on the East Asian monsoon and energy balance mechanisms. Additionally, the relationships between heating mechanisms and monsoon changes were explored. PMID:28287648

  16. Sensitivity of Weichselian fluvial systems to climate change (Nochten mine, eastern Germany)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasse, C.; Vandenberghe, J.; Van Huissteden, J.; Bohncke, S. J. P.; Bos, J. A. A.

    2003-10-01

    This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of fluvial system response to climate change during the last glacial-interglacial cycle. Fluvial and aeolian successions have been studied in the opencast brown-coal mine Nochten in eastern Germany. An absolute chronology was established by luminescence and 14C-dating, enabling to demonstrate the relations between depositional units and changes in sedimentary environment over time with regional climatic and vegetational changes. It is concluded that the major climatic periods, coinciding with the oxygen isotope stages, are generally reflected in the fluvial sequence by distinct fluvial environments. Major climatic changes (oxygen isotope stage boundaries) have been preserved in the fluvial record as erosional bounding surfaces and by changes in fluvial style. Rapid climate changes like the Middle Pleniglacial Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles are in general not reflected in the fluvial succession. These cycles were too short or with too low amplitude to cause a strong vegetational response and related changes in water and sediment supply. It is emphasized that also the preservation potential of short-lived climatic warming events in 'high-energy' fluvial systems is low. Warming events may, however, have been preserved in lacustrine successions in former thermokarst lakes. A strong cooling event at ca 40 ka, leading to continuous permafrost conditions and changes in the water and sediment budget, was reflected in the fluvial archive by a change from sandy anabranching to braided river conditions.

  17. Monitoring and Modeling the Tibetan Plateau’s climate system and its impact on East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Yaoming; Ma, Weiqiang; Zhong, Lei; Hu, Zeyong; Li, Maoshan; Zhu, Zhikun; Han, Cunbo; Wang, Binbin; Liu, Xin

    2017-03-01

    The Tibetan Plateau is an important water source in Asia. As the “Third Pole” of the Earth, the Tibetan Plateau has significant dynamic and thermal effects on East Asian climate patterns, the Asian monsoon process and atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere. However, little systematic knowledge is available regarding the changing climate system of the Tibetan Plateau and the mechanisms underlying its impact on East Asia. This study was based on “water-cryosphere-atmosphere-biology” multi-sphere interactions, primarily considering global climate change in relation to the Tibetan Plateau -East Asia climate system and its mechanisms. This study also analyzed the Tibetan Plateau to clarify global climate change by considering multi-sphere energy and water processes. Additionally, the impacts of climate change in East Asia and the associated impact mechanisms were revealed, and changes in water cycle processes and water conversion mechanisms were studied. The changes in surface thermal anomalies, vegetation, local circulation and the atmospheric heat source on the Tibetan Plateau were studied, specifically, their effects on the East Asian monsoon and energy balance mechanisms. Additionally, the relationships between heating mechanisms and monsoon changes were explored.

  18. The Global Change Information System (GCIS): A Clearinghouse For Climatic Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldstein, J.; Tilmes, C.; Aulenbach, S.; Duggan, B.

    2013-12-01

    An overview of how the Global Change Information System (GCIS), forthcoming in March 2014, satisfies the terms of the White House Office of Science Technology and Policy (OSTP)'s memorandum. This portal is being developed by the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), an interagency program coordinating Federal government climate research. Initially, it will support the traceability of the findings and figures presented the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) by linking to their supporting scientific data and publications. Eventually, GCIS will grow beyond the NCA, increasing public access to all research and data relevant for global change across the USGCRP through its curation of the data underlying climatic studies. As a part of the curation process, GCIS efforts will also be geared towards identifying assets of climatic studies that may not be clear in the underlying published study, including the version of the dataset utilized, and will contain sets of formal metadata for each figure and dataset.

  19. Genetic Resources of Energy Crops: Biological Systems to Combat Climate Change

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Biological systems are expected to contribute to renewable energy production, help stabilize rising levels of green house gases (GHG), and mitigate the risk of global climate change (GCC). Bioenergy crop plants that function as solar energy collectors and thermo-chemical energy storage systems are t...

  20. Environmental Technology Verification Report: Climate Energy freewatt™ Micro-Combined Heat and Power System

    EPA Science Inventory

    The EPA GHG Center collaborated with the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) to evaluate the performance of the Climate Energy freewatt Micro-Combined Heat and Power System. The system is a reciprocating internal combustion (IC) engine distributed e...

  1. Climate Change, Hydrology and Landscapes of America's Heartland: A Coupled Natural-Human System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lant, C.; Misgna, G.; Secchi, S.; Schoof, J. T.

    2012-12-01

    This paper will present a methodological overview of an NSF-funded project under the Coupled Natural and Human System program. Climate change, coupled with variations and changes in economic and policy environments and agricultural techniques, will alter the landscape of the U.S. Midwest. Assessing the effects of these changes on watersheds, and thus on water quantity, water quality, and agricultural production, entails modeling a coupled natural-human system capable of answering research questions such as: (1) How will the climate of the U.S. Midwest change through the remainder of the 21st Century? (2) How will climate change, together with changing markets and policies, affect land use patterns at various scales, from the U.S. Midwest, to agricultural regions, to watersheds, to farms and fields? (3) Under what policies and prices does landscape change induced by climate change generate a positive or a negative feedback through changes in carbon storage, evapotranspiration, and albedo? (4) Will climate change expand or diminish the agricultural production and ecosystem service generation capacities of specific watersheds? Such research can facilitate early adaptation and make a timely contribution to the successful integration of agricultural, environmental, and trade policy. Rural landscapes behave as a system through a number of feedback mechanisms: climatic, agro-technology, market, and policy. Methods, including agent-based modeling, SWAT modeling, map algebra using logistic regression, and genetic algorithms for analyzing each of these feedback mechanisms will be described. Selected early results that link sub-system models and incorporate critical feedbacks will also be presented.igure 1. Overall Modeling framework for Climate Change, Hydrology and Landscapes of America's Heartland.

  2. Integrated monitoring and information systems for managing aquatic invasive species in a changing climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lee, Henry; Reusser, Deborah A.; Olden, Julian D.; Smith, Scott S.; Graham, Jim; Burkett, Virginia; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Piorkowski, Robert J.; Mcphedran, John

    2008-01-01

    Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change

  3. A Bayesian approach for temporally scaling climate for modeling ecological systems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Post van der Burg, Max; Anteau, Michael J.; McCauley, Lisa A.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.

    2016-01-01

    With climate change becoming more of concern, many ecologists are including climate variables in their system and statistical models. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a drought index that has potential advantages in modeling ecological response variables, including a flexible computation of the index over different timescales. However, little development has been made in terms of the choice of timescale for SPEI. We developed a Bayesian modeling approach for estimating the timescale for SPEI and demonstrated its use in modeling wetland hydrologic dynamics in two different eras (i.e., historical [pre-1970] and contemporary [post-2003]). Our goal was to determine whether differences in climate between the two eras could explain changes in the amount of water in wetlands. Our results showed that wetland water surface areas tended to be larger in wetter conditions, but also changed less in response to climate fluctuations in the contemporary era. We also found that the average timescale parameter was greater in the historical period, compared with the contemporary period. We were not able to determine whether this shift in timescale was due to a change in the timing of wet–dry periods or whether it was due to changes in the way wetlands responded to climate. Our results suggest that perhaps some interaction between climate and hydrologic response may be at work, and further analysis is needed to determine which has a stronger influence. Despite this, we suggest that our modeling approach enabled us to estimate the relevant timescale for SPEI and make inferences from those estimates. Likewise, our approach provides a mechanism for using prior information with future data to assess whether these patterns may continue over time. We suggest that ecologists consider using temporally scalable climate indices in conjunction with Bayesian analysis for assessing the role of climate in ecological systems.

  4. Climatic variability effects on summer cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capa-Morocho, M.; Rodríguez-Fonseca, B.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.

    2012-04-01

    Climate variability and changes in the frequency of extremes events have a direct impact on crop yield and damages. Climate anomalies projections at monthly and yearly timescale allows us for adapting a cropping system (crops, varieties and management) to take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. The objective of this work is to develop indices to evaluate the effect of climatic variability in summer cropping systems of Iberian Peninsula, in an attempt of relating yield variability to climate variability, extending the work of Rodríguez-Puebla (2004). This paper analyses the evolution of the yield anomalies of irrigated maize in several representative agricultural locations in Spain with contrasting temperature and precipitation regimes and compare it to the evolution of different patterns of climate variability, extending the methodology of Porter and Semenov (2005). To simulate maize yields observed daily data of radiation, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation were used. These data were obtained from the State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET). Time series of simulated maize yields were computed with CERES-maize model for periods ranging from 22 to 49 years, depending on the observed climate data available for each location. The computed standardized anomalies yields were projected on different oceanic and atmospheric anomalous fields and the resulting patterns were compared with a set of documented patterns from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The results can be useful also for climate change impact assessment, providing a scientific basis for selection of climate change scenarios where combined natural and forced variability represent a hazard for agricultural production. Interpretation of impact projections would also be enhanced.

  5. Addressing Value and Belief Systems on Climate Literacy in the Southeastern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNeal, K. S.

    2012-12-01

    The southeast (SEUS; AL, AR, GA, FL, KY, LA, NC, SC, TN, E. TX) faces the greatest impacts as a result of climate change of any region in the U.S. which presents considerable and costly adaptation challenges. Paradoxically, people in the SEUS hold attitudes and perceptions that are more dismissive of climate change than those of any other region. An additional mismatch exists between the manner in which climate science is generally communicated and the underlying core values and beliefs held by a large segment of people in the SEUS. As a result, people frequently misinterpret and/or distrust information sources, inhibiting efforts to productively discuss and consider climate change and related impacts on human and environmental systems, and possible solutions and outcomes. The Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) project includes an extensive network of partners throughout the SEUS from faith, agriculture, culturally diverse, leisure, and K-20 educator communities that aim to address this educational need through a shared vision. CLiPSE has conducted a Climate Stewardship Survey (CSS) to determine the knowledge and perceptions of individuals in and beyond the CLiPSE network. The descriptive results of the CSS indicate that religion, predominantly Protestantism, plays a minor role in climate knowledge and perceptions. Likewise, political affiliation plays a minimal role in climate knowledge and perceptions between religions. However, when Protestants were broken out by political affiliation, statistically significant differences (t(30)=2.44, p=0.02) in knowledge related to the causes of climate change exist. Those Protestants affiliated with the Democratic Party (n=206) tended to maintain a statistically significant stronger knowledge of the causes of global climate change than their Republican counterparts. When SEUS educator (n=277) group was only considered, similar trends were evidenced, indicating that strongly held beliefs potentially

  6. A general scientific information system to support the study of climate-related data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Treinish, L. A.

    1984-01-01

    The development and use of NASA's Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS) are discussed. The PCDS is used as a focal point for managing and providing access to a large collection of actively used data for the Earth, ocean and atmospheric sciences. The PCDS provides uniform data catalogs, inventories, and access methods for selected NASA and non-NASA data sets. Scientific users can preview the data sets using graphical and statistical methods. The system has evolved from its original purpose as a climate data base management system in response to a national climate program, into an extensive package of capabilities to support many types of data sets from both spaceborne and surface based measurements with flexible data selection and analysis functions.

  7. On the role of the Agulhas system in ocean circulation and climate.

    PubMed

    Beal, Lisa M; De Ruijter, Wilhelmus P M; Biastoch, Arne; Zahn, Rainer

    2011-04-28

    The Atlantic Ocean receives warm, saline water from the Indo-Pacific Ocean through Agulhas leakage around the southern tip of Africa. Recent findings suggest that Agulhas leakage is a crucial component of the climate system and that ongoing increases in leakage under anthropogenic warming could strengthen the Atlantic overturning circulation at a time when warming and accelerated meltwater input in the North Atlantic is predicted to weaken it. Yet in comparison with processes in the North Atlantic, the overall Agulhas system is largely overlooked as a potential climate trigger or feedback mechanism. Detailed modelling experiments--backed by palaeoceanographic and sustained modern observations--are required to establish firmly the role of the Agulhas system in a warming climate.

  8. Challenges for the management of water resource systems under the impact of global climate change / The Yesa reservoir in the Spanish Pyrenees as an example

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winterscheid, A.

    2003-04-01

    It is becoming obvious that climate change has profound impacts on water resource systems, composed of natural ecosystem, engineered facilities and management institutions. As a consequence a successful management strategy of water resource systems has to meet the challenge of more frequent extremes with respect to the criteria of sustainability. This might lead to reduced water availability facing an increased water demand as well as more severe floods. Behind the background of climate change an integrated analysis of the Yesa reservoir / Spain has been carried out. The Yesa reservoir is a single purpose site located in the Central Spanish Pyrenees. Water is stored during the wet and thaw period to provide sufficient supplies for irrigation in the dry period. To satisfy future water demands an enlargement of the Yesa reservoir storage volume from actual 450 Hm3 up to 1500 Hm3 has been planed since 1982. The project is still in the approval procedure due to many raised objections. Opponents of this enlargement project refer to severe impacts on the ecological and social system. A scenario based hydrological analysis with respect to climate change as well as land use change within the catchment area has been carried out. The obtained results raise doubts on the future performance of an enlarged Yesa reservoir with respect to the criteria of sustainability. The Yesa enlargement project is still in the stage of planning, therefore additional comprehensive studies should be carried out for the assessment of future water resources and evaluation of ecological, economical as well as social risks.

  9. Motivated recall in the service of the economic system: The case of anthropogenic climate change.

    PubMed

    Hennes, Erin P; Ruisch, Benjamin C; Feygina, Irina; Monteiro, Christopher A; Jost, John T

    2016-06-01

    The contemporary political landscape is characterized by numerous divisive issues. Unlike many other issues, however, much of the disagreement about climate change centers not on how best to take action to address the problem, but on whether the problem exists at all. Psychological studies indicate that, to the extent that sustainability initiatives are seen as threatening to the socioeconomic system, individuals may downplay environmental problems in order to defend and protect the status quo. In the current research, participants were presented with scientific information about climate change and later asked to recall details of what they had learned. Individuals who were experimentally induced (Study 1) or dispositionally inclined (Studies 2 and 3) to justify the economic system misremembered the evidence to be less serious, and this was associated with increased skepticism. However, when high system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in a recovery, they recalled climate change information to be more serious than did those assigned to a control condition. When low system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in recession, they recalled the information to be less serious (Study 3). These findings suggest that because system justification can impact information processing, simply providing the public with scientific evidence may be insufficient to inspire action to mitigate climate change. However, linking environmental information to statements about the strength of the economic system may satiate system justification needs and break the psychological link between proenvironmental initiatives and economic risk. (PsycINFO Database Record

  10. Retrofitting Air Conditioning and Duct Systems in Hot, Dry Climates

    SciTech Connect

    Shapiro, C.; Aldrich, R.; Arena, L.

    2012-07-01

    This technical report describes CARB's work with Clark County Community Resources Division in Las Vegas, Nevada, to optimize procedures for upgrading cooling systems on existing homes in the area to implement health, safety, and energy improvements. Detailed monitoring of five AC systems showed that three of the five systems met or exceeded air flow rate goals.

  11. Quantification of the uncertainty in estimates of climate system properties due to differences in available reconstructions of historical data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forest, C. E.; Libardoni, A.; Sokolov, A. P.

    2013-12-01

    Climate models of intermediate complexity have been used extensively to help determine climate system properties because of their efficiency and ability to easily adjust key climate system components. By comparing model output over a wide range of possible states of the climate with observations, probability distributions for climate system properties can be derived. Observational data for a number of climate variables are available, and in many cases multiple reconstructions are available for the same variable. This study first evaluates how differences in the estimated historical trends of upper-air temperatures translate into uncertainty in estimates of three climate system properties: climate sensitivity, the rate of ocean heat uptake, and net aerosol forcing. These results build upon previous work that explored similar estimates associated with trends in surface temperatures and ocean heat content. Also addressed in this study is quantifying uncertainties in the estimates of the three properties associated with how surface temperature observations are used in the estimation process. Other studies have estimated climate parameters using only global mean surface temperature trends. It is shown here that estimates of all parameters are dependent upon the spatial variation of surface temperature trends. In particular, lower estimates of climate sensitivity are shown to be inconsistent with most observational data sources when using latitude-dependent surface trends. Low climate sensitivity is also shown to lead to inconsistent patterns in ocean heat uptake. These results will be presented in the context of recent investigations using data from previous work by the authors.

  12. Linguistic Theory and Actual Language.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Segerdahl, Par

    1995-01-01

    Examines Noam Chomsky's (1957) discussion of "grammaticalness" and the role of linguistics in the "correct" way of speaking and writing. It is argued that the concern of linguistics with the tools of grammar has resulted in confusion, with the tools becoming mixed up with the actual language, thereby becoming the central…

  13. A Systems Approach to Climate, Water and Diarrhea in Hubli-Dharward, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mellor, J. E.; Zimmerman, J.

    2014-12-01

    Although evidence suggests that climate change will negatively impact water resources and hence diarrheal disease rates in the developing world, there is uncertainty surrounding prior studies. This is due to the complexity of the pathways by which climate impacts diarrhea rates making it difficult to develop interventions. Therefore, our goal was to develop a mechanistic systems approach that incorporates the complex climate, human, engineered and water systems to relate climate change to diarrhea rates under future climate scenarios.To do this, we developed an agent-based model (ABM). Our agents are households and children living in Hubli-Dharward, India. The model was informed with 15 months of weather, water quality, ethnographic and diarrhea incidence data. The model's front end is a stochastic weather simulator incorporating 15 global climate models to simulate rainfall and temperature. The water quality available to agents (residents) on a model "day" is a function of the simulated day's weather and is fully validated with field data. As with the field data, as the ambient temperature increases or it rains, the quality of water available to residents in the model deteriorates. The propensity for an resident to get diarrhea is calculated with an integrated Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment model with uncertainty simulated with a bootstrap method. Other factors include hand-washing, improved water sources, household water treatment and improved sanitation.The benefits of our approach are as follows: Our mechanistic method allows us to develop scientifically derived adaptation strategies. We can quantitatively link climate scenarios with diarrhea incidence over long time periods. We can explore the complex climate and water system dynamics, rank risk factor importance, examine a broad range of scenarios and identify tipping points. Our approach is modular and expandable such that new datasets can be integrated to study climate impacts on a larger scale. Our

  14. European monitoring systems and data for assessing environmental and climate impacts on human infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Nichols, Gordon L; Andersson, Yvonne; Lindgren, Elisabet; Devaux, Isabelle; Semenza, Jan C

    2014-04-09

    Surveillance is critical to understanding the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The growing concern over climate and other drivers that may increase infectious disease threats to future generations has stimulated a review of the surveillance systems and environmental data sources that might be used to assess future health impacts from climate change in Europe. We present an overview of organizations, agencies and institutions that are responsible for infectious disease surveillance in Europe. We describe the surveillance systems, tracking tools, communication channels, information exchange and outputs in light of environmental and climatic drivers of infectious diseases. We discuss environmental and climatic data sets that lend themselves to epidemiological analysis. Many of the environmental data sets have a relatively uniform quality across EU Member States because they are based on satellite measurements or EU funded FP6 or FP7 projects with full EU coverage. Case-reporting systems for surveillance of infectious diseases should include clear and consistent case definitions and reporting formats that are geo-located at an appropriate resolution. This will allow linkage to environmental, social and climatic sources that will enable risk assessments, future threat evaluations, outbreak management and interventions to reduce disease burden.

  15. European Monitoring Systems and Data for Assessing Environmental and Climate Impacts on Human Infectious Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Nichols, Gordon L.; Andersson, Yvonne; Lindgren, Elisabet; Devaux, Isabelle; Semenza, Jan C.

    2014-01-01

    Surveillance is critical to understanding the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The growing concern over climate and other drivers that may increase infectious disease threats to future generations has stimulated a review of the surveillance systems and environmental data sources that might be used to assess future health impacts from climate change in Europe. We present an overview of organizations, agencies and institutions that are responsible for infectious disease surveillance in Europe. We describe the surveillance systems, tracking tools, communication channels, information exchange and outputs in light of environmental and climatic drivers of infectious diseases. We discuss environmental and climatic data sets that lend themselves to epidemiological analysis. Many of the environmental data sets have a relatively uniform quality across EU Member States because they are based on satellite measurements or EU funded FP6 or FP7 projects with full EU coverage. Case-reporting systems for surveillance of infectious diseases should include clear and consistent case definitions and reporting formats that are geo-located at an appropriate resolution. This will allow linkage to environmental, social and climatic sources that will enable risk assessments, future threat evaluations, outbreak management and interventions to reduce disease burden. PMID:24722542

  16. System Dynamics to Climate-Driven Water Budget Analysis in the Eastern Snake Plains Aquifer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryu, J.; Contor, B.; Wylie, A.; Johnson, G.; Allen, R. G.

    2010-12-01

    Climate variability, weather extremes and climate change continue to threaten the sustainability of water resources in the western United States. Given current climate change projections, increasing temperature is likely to modify the timing, form, and intensity of precipitation events, which consequently affect regional and local hydrologic cycles. As a result, drought, water shortage, and subsequent water conflicts may become an increasing threat in monotone hydrologic systems in arid lands, such as the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer (ESPA). The ESPA, in particular, is a critical asset in the state of Idaho. It is known as the economic lifeblood for more than half of Idaho’s population so that water resources availability and aquifer management due to climate change is of great interest, especially over the next few decades. In this study, we apply system dynamics as a methodology with which to address dynamically complex problems in ESPA’s water resources management. Aquifer recharge and discharge dynamics are coded in STELLA modeling system as input and output, respectively to identify long-term behavior of aquifer responses to climate-driven hydrological changes.

  17. Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions in the Climate System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andreae, M. O.

    2015-12-01

    Aerosols serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and thus have a powerful effect on cloud properties. Increased aerosol concentrations resulting from pollution lead to higher cloud droplet concentrations, but smaller droplet sizes. This in turn affects the physical processes inside clouds that lead to the initiation of precipitation. Depending on a number of factors, including aerosol composition, atmospheric stability, and cloud water content, increasing CCN concentrations may either decrease or increase rainfall. In convective clouds, early rain formation is suppressed, which makes more water and energy available to rise higher in the atmosphere and form ice particles. This may invigorate the dynamics of convection, encourage the formation of hail and lightning, and enhance the transport of materials to the upper troposphere. In turn, cloud processing also affects the concentrations, composition, and distribution of atmospheric aerosols. In order to understand and quantify the effects of air pollution on climate, and precipitation in particular, knowledge of natural abundance and characteristics of aerosols is as essential as the observation of perturbed conditions. I will present recent advances in the conceptual understanding of aerosol-precipitation interactions, as well as results of measurements on aerosol and cloud characteristics in pristine and polluted conditions.

  18. School Climate.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindelow, John; And Others

    Chapter 8 of a revised volume on school leadership, this chapter defines school climate and suggests ways to improve the learning environment at the school building level. School climate is defined as the feeling an individual gets from experiences within a school system. More specifically, climate is the composite of norms, expectations, and…

  19. Climate Informatics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Monteleoni, Claire; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Alexander, Francis J.; Niculescu-Mizil, Alexandru; Steinhaeuser, Karsten; Tippett, Michael; Banerjee, Arindam; Blumenthal, M. Benno; Ganguly, Auroop R.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Tedesco, Marco

    2013-01-01

    The impacts of present and potential future climate change will be one of the most important scientific and societal challenges in the 21st century. Given observed changes in temperature, sea ice, and sea level, improving our understanding of the climate system is an international priority. This system is characterized by complex phenomena that are imperfectly observed and even more imperfectly simulated. But with an ever-growing supply of climate data from satellites and environmental sensors, the magnitude of data and climate model output is beginning to overwhelm the relatively simple tools currently used to analyze them. A computational approach will therefore be indispensable for these analysis challenges. This chapter introduces the fledgling research discipline climate informatics: collaborations between climate scientists and machine learning researchers in order to bridge this gap between data and understanding. We hope that the study of climate informatics will accelerate discovery in answering pressing questions in climate science.

  20. Extending Climate Analytics-As to the Earth System Grid Federation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tamkin, G.; Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; McInerney, M.; Nadeau, D.; Li, J.; Strong, S.; Thompson, J. H.

    2015-12-01

    We are building three extensions to prior-funded work on climate analytics-as-a-service that will benefit the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) as it addresses the Big Data challenges of future climate research: (1) We are creating a cloud-based, high-performance Virtual Real-Time Analytics Testbed supporting a select set of climate variables from six major reanalysis data sets. This near real-time capability will enable advanced technologies like the Cloudera Impala-based Structured Query Language (SQL) query capabilities and Hadoop-based MapReduce analytics over native NetCDF files while providing a platform for community experimentation with emerging analytic technologies. (2) We are building a full-featured Reanalysis Ensemble Service comprising monthly means data from six reanalysis data sets. The service will provide a basic set of commonly used operations over the reanalysis collections. The operations will be made accessible through NASA's climate data analytics Web services and our client-side Climate Data Services (CDS) API. (3) We are establishing an Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) WPS-compliant Web service interface to our climate data analytics service that will enable greater interoperability with next-generation ESGF capabilities. The CDS API will be extended to accommodate the new WPS Web service endpoints as well as ESGF's Web service endpoints. These activities address some of the most important technical challenges for server-side analytics and support the research community's requirements for improved interoperability and improved access to reanalysis data.

  1. Importance of anthropogenic climate impact, sampling error and urban development in sewer system design.

    PubMed

    Egger, C; Maurer, M

    2015-04-15

    Urban drainage design relying on observed precipitation series neglects the uncertainties associated with current and indeed future climate variability. Urban drainage design is further affected by the large stochastic variability of precipitation extremes and sampling errors arising from the short observation periods of extreme precipitation. Stochastic downscaling addresses anthropogenic climate impact by allowing relevant precipitation characteristics to be derived from local observations and an ensemble of climate models. This multi-climate model approach seeks to reflect the uncertainties in the data due to structural errors of the climate models. An ensemble of outcomes from stochastic downscaling allows for addressing the sampling uncertainty. These uncertainties are clearly reflected in the precipitation-runoff predictions of three urban drainage systems. They were mostly due to the sampling uncertainty. The contribution of climate model uncertainty was found to be of minor importance. Under the applied greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B) and within the period 2036-2065, the potential for urban flooding in our Swiss case study is slightly reduced on average compared to the reference period 1981-2010. Scenario planning was applied to consider urban development associated with future socio-economic factors affecting urban drainage. The impact of scenario uncertainty was to a large extent found to be case-specific, thus emphasizing the need for scenario planning in every individual case. The results represent a valuable basis for discussions of new drainage design standards aiming specifically to include considerations of uncertainty.

  2. Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system: from past to future

    SciTech Connect

    Arneth, A.; Harrison, S. P.; Zaehle, S.; Tsigaridis, K; Menon, S; Bartlein, P.J.; Feichter, J; Korhola, A; Kulmala, M; O'Donnell, D; Schurgers, G; Sorvari, S; Vesala, T

    2010-01-05

    The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the regulation of atmospheric composition, and hence climate, through multiple interlinked biogeochemical cycles (BGC). Ice-core and other palaeoenvironmental records show a fast response of vegetation cover and exchanges with the atmosphere to past climate change, although the phasing of these responses reflects spatial patterning and complex interactions between individual biospheric feedbacks. Modern observations show a similar responsiveness of terrestrial biogeochemical cycles to anthropogenically-forced climate changes and air pollution, with equally complex feedbacks. For future conditions, although carbon cycle-climate interactions have been a major focus, other BGC feedbacks could be as important in modulating climate changes. The additional radiative forcing from terrestrial BGC feedbacks other than those conventionally attributed to the carbon cycle is in the range of 0.6 to 1.6 Wm{sup -2}; all taken together we estimate a possible maximum of around 3 Wm{sup -2} towards the end of the 21st century. There are large uncertainties associated with these estimates but, given that the majority of BGC feedbacks result in a positive forcing because of the fundamental link between metabolic stimulation and increasing temperature, improved quantification of these feedbacks and their incorporation in earth system models is necessary in order to develop coherent plans to manage ecosystems for climate mitigation.

  3. CMIP5 Simulations with the Community Earth System Model - Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mills, M. J.; Marsh, D. R.; CalvoFernandez, N.; Kinnison, D. E.; Lamarque, J.

    2011-12-01

    We have used the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to simulate the Earth's climate from pre-industrial conditions to the end of the 21st Century in several experiments following the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) protocols. We present preliminary analysis of these coupled experiments, highlighting the effects of chemistry and physics above the troposphere on climate. WACCM was developed to understand the couplings between atmospheric layers, the role of chemical and physical processes in defining these couplings, and the interaction between the Earth's atmosphere and the Sun. The current version of WACCM spans the range of altitude from the Earth's surface to the lower thermosphere (~140 km) and is based on version 1 of the Community Earth System Model (CESM-1). WACCM has been used to predict the evolution of ozone and other radiatively active species in the middle and upper atmosphere; to study effects of the stratosphere on tropospheric climate, including the response to increased greenhouse gases; and for independent investigations. We compare climate trends in CMIP5 experiments from WACCM to those in the low-top version of CESM. We examine the coupling between the upper and lower atmosphere, including the quasi-biennial oscillation, sudden stratospheric warmings, the solar cycle, and surface climate.

  4. Overview and Update of the North America Drought Monitor and North America Climate Extremes Monitoring System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heim, R. R.

    2006-12-01

    The North America Drought Monitor (NADM) is a joint operational drought monitoring activity between scientists and other specialists in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. Like all weather phenomena, drought occurs irrespective of political and international boundaries. The monthly map and narrative product created by this first-of-its-kind effort provides an integrated continental-scale drought assessment tool for decision-makers in all three countries involved in drought monitoring, drought mitigation, and related climate services. The product is prepared by a rotating primary author who utilizes drought indicators which are computed using standard methodologies for stations across the continent, plus national drought monitoring products and feedback from local experts in each of the three countries. The participants include, within the United States: the NOAA National Climatic Data Center, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, USDA Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, and National Drought Mitigation Center; within Mexico: Servicio Meteorologico Nacional/Comision Nacional del Agua; and within Canada: Agriculture and Agrifood Canada and the Meteorological Service of Canada. The NADM is part of a North America Climate Extremes Monitoring (NACEM) system which will monitor and assess climate extremes across the continent. Several climate indicators are currently computed from station daily data to measure (in addition to drought) heavy precipitation, heat waves, and cold waves. Future efforts will add indicators to monitor storm severity and severe weather, including the creation of a North America Climate Extremes Index (NACEI) patterned after the U.S. Climate Extremes Index (USCEI). This presentation will review the history of the NADM/NACEM effort, the data utilized, the indicators computed, and the product preparation and peer review process.

  5. An Automated Method to Identify Mesoscale Convective Complexes in the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitehall, K. D.; Jenkins, G. S.; Mattmann, C. A.; Waliser, D. E.; Kim, J.; Goodale, C. E.; Hart, A. F.; Ramirez, P.; Whittell, J.; Zimdars, P. A.

    2012-12-01

    Mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) are large (2 - 3 x 105 km2) nocturnal convectively-driven weather systems that are generally associated with high precipitation events in short durations (less than 12hrs) in various locations through out the tropics and midlatitudes (Maddox 1980). These systems are particularly important for climate in the West Sahel region, where the precipitation associated with them is a principal component of the rainfall season (Laing and Fritsch 1993). These systems occur on weather timescales and are historically identified from weather data analysis via manual and more recently automated processes (Miller and Fritsch 1991, Nesbett 2006, Balmey and Reason 2012). The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) is an open source tool designed for easy evaluation of climate and Earth system data through access to standardized datasets, and intrinsic tools that perform common analysis and visualization tasks (Hart et al. 2011). The RCMES toolkit also provides the flexibility of user-defined subroutines for further metrics, visualization and even dataset manipulation. The purpose of this study is to present a methodology for identifying MCCs in observation datasets using the RCMES framework. TRMM 3 hourly datasets will be used to demonstrate the methodology for 2005 boreal summer. This method promotes the use of open source software for scientific data systems to address a concern to multiple stakeholders in the earth sciences. A historical MCC dataset provides a platform with regards to further studies of the variability of frequency on various timescales of MCCs that is important for many including climate scientists, meteorologists, water resource managers, and agriculturalists. The methodology of using RCMES for searching and clipping datasets will engender a new realm of studies as users of the system will no longer be restricted to solely using the datasets as they reside in their own local systems; instead will be afforded rapid

  6. Multistable states in the biosphere-climate system: towards conceptual models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartsev, S.; Belolipetskii, P.; Degermendzhi, A.

    2017-02-01

    Forecasting response of the biosphere and regional ecosystems to observed and expected climate change is the fundamental problem with obvious practical significance. Fundamental non-linearity of the climate system and biosphere makes feasible implementing multiple states and threshold processes in the biosphere-climate system (BCS) in response to gradually increasing influence factor (greenhouse gas concentrations growth). Really time series analysis of global temperature and other global and local parameters indicates the presence of abrupt transitions between stationary states. Identification of the switching mechanisms using general circulation models of the atmosphere and the ocean is associated with the obvious difficulties due to their complexity. Understanding the nature of such switches at qualitative level can be achieved by using a conceptual small-scale models. Some variants of possible mechanisms capable of generating these shifts and simultaneously supporting quasi-stationary periods between them are discussed.

  7. The role of terrestrial snow cover in the climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vavrus, Steve

    2007-07-01

    Snow cover is known to exert a strong influence on climate, but quantifying its impact is difficult. This study investigates the global impact of terrestrial snow cover through a pair of GCM simulations run with prognostic snow cover and with all snow cover on land eliminated (NOSNOWCOVER). In this experiment all snowfall over land was converted into its liquid-water equivalent upon reaching the surface. Compared with the control run, NOSNOWCOVER produces mean-annual surface air temperatures up to 5 K higher over northern North America and Eurasia and 8-10 K greater during winter. The globally averaged warming of 0.8 K is one-third as large as the model’s response to 2 × CO2 forcing. The pronounced surface heating propagates throughout the troposphere, causing changes in surface and upper-air circulation patterns. Despite the large atmospheric warming, the absence of an insulating snow pack causes soil temperatures in NOSNOWCOVER to fall throughout northern Asia and Canada, including extreme wintertime cooling of over 20 K in Siberia and a 70% increase in permafrost area. The absence of snow melt water also affects extratropical surface hydrology, causing significantly drier upper-layer soils and dramatic changes in the annual cycle of runoff. Removing snow cover also drastically affects extreme weather. Extreme cold-air outbreaks (CAOs)—defined relative to the control climatology—essentially disappear in NOSNOWCOVER. The loss of CAOs appears to stem from both the local effects of eliminating snow cover in mid-latitudes and a remote effect over source regions in the Arctic, where -40°C air masses are no longer able to form.

  8. Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leclère, D.; Havlík, P.; Fuss, S.; Schmid, E.; Mosnier, A.; Walsh, B.; Valin, H.; Herrero, M.; Khabarov, N.; Obersteiner, M.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adjust is a significant risk and this acts as an incentive to delay action. It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making. While implementing a definition related to large changes in resource use into a global impact assessment modelling framework, we find transformational adaptations to be required of agricultural systems in most regions by 2050s in order to cope with climate change. However, these transformations widely differ across climate change scenarios: uncertainties in large-scale development of irrigation span in all continents from 2030s on, and affect two-thirds of regions by 2050s. Meanwhile, significant but uncertain reduction of major agricultural areas affects the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate latitudes, while increases to non-agricultural zones could be large but uncertain in one-third of regions. To help reducing the associated challenge for decision-making, we propose a methodology exploring which, when, where and why transformations could be required and uncertain, by means of scenario analysis.

  9. The Characteristics of Earth System Thinking of Science Gifted Students in relation to Climate Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chung, Duk Ho; Cho, Kyu Seong; Hong, Deok Pyo; Park, Kyeong Jin

    2016-04-01

    This study aimed to investigate the perception of earth system thinking of science gifted students in future problem solving (FPS) in relation to climate changes. In order to this study, the research problem associated with climate changes was developed through a literature review. The thirty seven science gifted students participated in lessons. The ideas in problem solving process of science gifted students were analyzed using the semantic network analysis method. The results are as follows. In the problem solving processes, science gifted students are ''changes of the sunlight by water layer'', ''changes of the Earth''s temperature'', ''changes of the air pressure'', '' change of the wind and weather''were represented in order. On other hand, regard to earth system thinking for climate changes, while science gifted students were used sub components related to atmospheres frequently, they were used sub components related to biosphere, geosphere, and hydrosphere a little. But, the analytical results of the structural relationship between the sub components related to earth system, they were recognised that biosphere, geosphere, and hydrosphere used very important in network structures. In conclusion, science gifted students were understood well that components of the earth system are influencing each other. Keywords : Science gifted students, Future problem solving, Climate change, Earth system thinking

  10. Load calculation and system evaluation for electric vehicle climate control

    SciTech Connect

    Aceves-Saborio, S.; Comfort, W.J. III

    1993-10-27

    Providing air conditioning for electric vehicles (EVs) represents an important challenge, because vapor compression air conditioners, which are common in gasoline powered vehicles, may consume a substantial part of the total energy stored in the EV battery. This report consists of two major parts. The first part is a cooling and heating load calculation for electric vehicles. The second part is an evaluation of several systems that can be used to provide the desired cooling and heating in EVs. Four cases are studied. Short range and full range EVs are each analyzed twice, first with the regular vehicle equipment, and then with a fan and heat reflecting windows, to reduce hot soak. Recent legislation has allowed the use of combustion heating whenever the ambient temperature drops below 5{degrees}C. This has simplified the problem of heating, and made cooling the most important problem. Therefore, systems described in this project are designed for cooling, and their applicability to heating at temperatures above 5{degrees}C is described. If the air conditioner systems cannot be used to cover the whole heating load at 5{degrees}C, then the vehicle requires a complementary heating system (most likely a heat recovery system or electric resistance heating). Air conditioners are ranked according to their overall weight. The overall weight is calculated by adding the system weight and the weight of the battery necessary to provide energy for system operation.

  11. Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weindl, Isabelle; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander; Müller, Christoph; Havlík, Petr; Herrero, Mario; Schmitz, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne

    2015-09-01

    Livestock farming is the world’s largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource- and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction.

  12. Framework for studying the hydrological impact of climate change in an alley cropping system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hallema, Dennis W.; Rousseau, Alain N.; Gumiere, Silvio J.; Périard, Yann; Hiemstra, Paul H.; Bouttier, Léa; Fossey, Maxime; Paquette, Alain; Cogliastro, Alain; Olivier, Alain

    2014-09-01

    Alley cropping is an agroforestry practice whereby crops are grown between hedgerows of trees planted at wide spacings. The local climate and the physiological adaptation mechanisms of the trees are key factors in the growth and survival of the trees and intercrops, because they directly affect the soil moisture distribution. In order to evaluate the long-term hydrological impact of climate change in an alley cropping system in eastern Canada, we developed a framework that combines local soil moisture data with local projections of climate change and a model of soil water movement, root uptake and evapotranspiration. Forty-five frequency domain reflectometers (FDR) along a transect perpendicular to the tree rows generated a two-year dataset that we used for the parameterization and evaluation of the model. An impact study with simulations based on local projections of three global and one regional climate simulation suggest that the soil becomes drier overall in the period between 2041 and 2070, while the number of critically wet periods with a length of one day increases slightly with respect to the reference period between 1967 and 1996. Hydrological simulations based on a fourth climate scenario however point toward wetter conditions. In all cases the changes are minor. Although our simulations indicate that the experimental alley cropping system will possibly suffer drier conditions in response to higher temperatures and increased evaporative demand, these conditions are not necessarily critical for vegetation during the snow-free season.

  13. 2014 Earth System Grid Federation and Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools Conference Report

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, Dean N.

    2015-01-27

    The climate and weather data science community met December 9–11, 2014, in Livermore, California, for the fourth annual Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT) Face-to-Face (F2F) Conference, hosted by the Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the European Infrastructure for the European Network of Earth System Modelling, and the Australian Department of Education. Both ESGF and UVCDATremain global collaborations committed to developing a new generation of open-source software infrastructure that provides distributed access and analysis to simulated and observed data from the climate and weather communities. The tools and infrastructure created under these international multi-agency collaborations are critical to understanding extreme weather conditions and long-term climate change. In addition, the F2F conference fosters a stronger climate and weather data science community and facilitates a stronger federated software infrastructure. The 2014 F2F conference detailed the progress of ESGF, UV-CDAT, and other community efforts over the year and sets new priorities and requirements for existing and impending national and international community projects, such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six. Specifically discussed at the conference were project capabilities and enhancements needs for data distribution, analysis, visualization, hardware and network infrastructure, standards, and resources.

  14. Planetary boundary layer as an essential component of the earth's climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davy, Richard; Esau, Igor

    2015-04-01

    Following the traditional engineering approach proposed by Prandtl, the turbulent planetary boundary layers (PBLs) are considered in the climate science as complex, non-linear, essential but nevertheless subordinated components of the earth's climate system. Correspondingly, the temperature variations, dT - a popular and practically important measure of the climate variability, are seen as the system's response to the external heat forcing, Q, e.g. in the energy balance model of the type dT=Q/C (1). The moderation of this response by non-linear feedbacks embedded in the effective heat capacity, C, are to a large degree overlooked. The effective heat capacity is globally determined by the depth of the ocean mixed layer (on multi-decadal and longer time scales) but regionally, over the continents, C is much smaller and determined (on decadal time scales) by the depth, h, of the PBL. The present understanding of the climatological features of turbulent boundary layers is set by the works of Frankignoul & Hasselmann (1976) and Manabe & Stauffer (1980). The former explained how large-scale climate anomalies could be generated in the case of a large C (in the sea surface temperature) by the delta-correlated stochastic forcing (white noise). The latter demonstrated that the climate response to a given forcing is moderated by the depth, h, so that in the shallow PBL the signal should be significantly amplified. At present there are more than 3000 publications (ISI Web of Knowledge) which detail this understanding but the physical mechanisms, which control the boundary layer depth, and statistical relationships between the turbulent and climatological measures remain either unexplored or incorrectly attributed. In order to identify the climatic role of the PBL, the relationships between the PBL depth, h, - as the integral measure of the turbulent processes and micro-circulations due to the surface heterogeneity - and the climatic variability (variations and trends) of

  15. A Climate Observing System: Where are we, Where are we Going?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbott, M. R.

    2001-12-01

    Climate research and monitoring have both an "operational" and a "research" element. "Operational" implies a long-term commitment to the mission, such as ensuring that there are few gaps in the data record, that the data are acquired and preserved, and that mission costs remain affordable. Operational missions have broad mandates in regards to data acquisition. On the other hand, research missions are focused on specific scientific questions. There is less urgency to maintain absolute data continuity. An observational strategy for climate research requires a blend of long-term, carefully calibrated measurements (which are sometimes perceived to be the purview of the operational agencies) as well as short-term, focused process studies (which are perceived to be the purview of the research agencies.) Although long time series are used to detect climate change, many processes, such as ocean circulation, are only revealed on decadal scales. Thus such time series often fill a dual role of climate change detection as well as process study. The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) represents an enormous opportunity, but its implementation for climate research and monitoring requires considerable thought, planning, and leadership. Coordination with NASA research satellites, integration of new technology and new capabilities, attention to data stability and continuity, and scientific insight into data processing are some of the issues facing NPOESS. Climate observing systems will require a strong research element for a long time to come. Although some aspects of the observing system can be turned over to an operational agency, it is clear that we still need more research and analysis on climate processes, sampling strategies, and processing algorithms. An appropriate forum is needed where discussions of the balance of climate observing requirements for research with short-term forecasting requirements can take place. At present, such

  16. Cold-Climate Solar Domestic Hot Water Systems: Cost/Benefit Analysis and Opportunities for Improvement

    SciTech Connect

    Burch, J.; Hillman, T.; Salasovich, J.

    2005-01-01

    To determine potential for reduction in the cost of saved energy (COSE) for cold-climate solar domestic hot water (SDHW) systems, COSE was computed for three types of cold climate water heating systems. For each system, a series of cost-saving measures was considered: (1) balance of systems (BOS): tank, heat exchanger, and piping-valving measures; and (2) four alternative lower-cost collectors. Given all beneficial BOS measures in place, >50% reduction of COSE was achievable only with selective polymer collectors at half today's selective collector cost. In all three system types, today's metal-glass selective collector achieved the same COSE as the hypothesized non-selective polymer collector.

  17. Climate change impacts on dryland cropping systems in the central Great Plains, USA

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agricultural systems models are essential tools to assess potential climate change (CC) impacts on crop production and help guide policy decisions. In this study, impacts of GCM projected CC on dryland crop rotations of wheat-fallow (WF), wheat-corn-fallow (WCF), and wheat-corn-millet (WCM) at Akro...

  18. High Performance Work System, HRD Climate and Organisational Performance: An Empirical Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Muduli, Ashutosh

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to study the relationship between high-performance work system (HPWS) and organizational performance and to examine the role of human resource development (HRD) Climate in mediating the relationship between HPWS and the organizational performance in the context of the power sector of India. Design/methodology/approach: The…

  19. Energy, environment and climate assessment using the MARKAL energy system model

    EPA Science Inventory

    As part of EPA ORD’s efforts to develop an understanding of the potential environmental impacts of future changes in energy use, the Energy and Climate Assessment Team has developed a database representation of the U.S. energy system for use with the MARKet ALlocation (MARK...

  20. Evaluating potential dryland cropping systems adapted to climate change in the Central Great Plains

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate in the semi-arid Central Great Plains is expected to become warmer and drier in coming decades, with potentially greater variability in precipitation and temperature. Cropping systems that include forages and allow flexibility for determining if a crop should be planted and which crop to pla...

  1. Climate Science: How Earth System Models are Reshaping the Science Policy Interface.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex

    2015-01-01

    This talk is oriented at a general audience including the largest French utility company, and will describe the basics of climate change before moving into emissions scenarios and agricultural impacts that we can test with our earth system models and impacts models.

  2. Assessment of the Sensitivity of Distributions of Climate System Properties to Methodology and Model Diagnostics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Libardoni, A. G.; Forest, C. E.

    2012-12-01

    This study explores the sensitivity of probability distribution functions for climate sensitivity, the rate of ocean heat uptake, and the net anthropogenic aerosol forcing to multiple factors. First, the impact on the distributions of the method used when using surface temperatures to evaluate model performance is explored. Specifically, the treatment of missing data in the surface observations and how it is used to mask the model data is modified and its impact evaluated. Second, the sensitivity of the distributions to the reference climatology used to calculate surface temperature anomalies is explored. Third, the sensitivity of the distributions to the observational data sources is explored. In total, five different surface temperature datasets and three different ocean heat content datasets are used. Lastly, the impact of including more recent data in the surface and ocean heat content records is explored. Contained in this exploration is an evaluation of how using a longer surface temperature record (six decades versus five decades) in model evaluation impacts the resulting distributions. The probability distributions are derived using a two-step process consisting of: 1) running a single climate model while varying the parameter settings for each model run and 2) evaluating the performance of a given model through the comparison of model output to observed climate records. The MIT Integrated Assessment Model is used due to its efficiency and ability to easily modify the three climate system properties that are assessed. Model output for a given set of parameters is compared to historical surface temperature, ocean heat content, and upper-air temperature patterns and the resulting goodness-of-fit statistics are used to derive probability distributions for the system properties. Understanding the uncertainties that are attributable to each of the factors described above allows for a more thorough analysis of climate system properties and will help guide the

  3. Building a Global Federation System for Climate Change Research: The Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET)

    SciTech Connect

    Ananthakrishnan, R.; Bernholdt, D. E.; Bharathi, S.; Brown, D.; Chen, M.; Chervenak, A. L.; Cinquini, L.; Drach, R.; Foster, I.; Fox, P.; Fraser, D.; Halliday, K.; Hankin, S.; Jones, P.; Kesselman, C.; Middleton, J. E.; Schwidder, J.; Schweitzer, R.; Schuler, R.; Shoshani, A.; Siebenlist, F.; Sim, A.; Strand, W. G.; Wilhelmi, N.; Su, M.; Williams, Dean N.

    2007-07-13

    The recent release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (AR4) has generated significant media attention. Much has been said about the U.S. role in this report, which included significant support from the Department of Energy through the Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) and other Department of Energy (DOE) programs for climate model development and the production execution of simulations. The SciDAC-supported Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) also played a major role in the IPCC AR4: all of the simulation data that went into the report was made available to climate scientists worldwide exclusively via the ESG-CET. At the same time as the IPCC AR4 database was being developed, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), a leading U.S. climate science laboratory and a ESG participant, began publishing model runs from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), and its predecessor the Parallel Coupled Model (PCM) through ESG. In aggregate, ESG-CET provides seamless access to over 250 terabytes of distributed climate simulation data to over 6,000 registered users worldwide, who have taken delivery of more than 280 terabytes from the archive. Not only does this represent a substantial advance in scientific knowledge, it is also a major step forward in how we conduct the research process on a global scale. Moving forward, the next IPCC assessment report, AR5, will demand multi-site metadata federation for data discovery and cross-domain identity management for single signon of users in a more diverse federation enterprise environment. Towards this aim, ESG is leading the effort in the climate community towards standardization of material for the global federation of metadata, security, and data services required to standardize, analyze, and access data worldwide.

  4. Testing "What If?" Scenarios: A Process Known as System Dynamics Allows Leaders to Try out an Initiative before Actually Implementing It

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brauer, Ralph A.

    2004-01-01

    One challenge of system leadership always has been that even with the best data and research in place, with all the programmatic and political dimensions under control and with years of experience handling similar decisions, you never really know whether a policy initiative will work until you implement it. That is why anyone who has been a school…

  5. Education and Climate Change--Some Systemic Connections

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ainley, Patrick

    2008-01-01

    Unlike most papers on education and ecology, this one is not concerned with the content of education but its organisation as a system and hence its "purpose" or "finality". The central contention of the paper, which takes English education and training (or "learning") as a case in point, is that in a new market-state formation the pursuit of…

  6. Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies: Building a Global Infrastructure for Climate Change Research

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, Dean N.; Ahrens, J.; Ananthakrishnan, R.; Bell, G.; Bharathi, S.; Brown, D.; Chen, M.; Chervenak, A. L.; Cinquini, L.; Drach, R.; Foster, I. T.; Fox, P.; Hankin, S.; Harper, D.; Hook, N.; Jones, P.; Middleton, D. E.; Miller, R.; Nienhouse, E.; Schweitzer, R.; Schuler, R.; Shipman, G.; Shoshani, A.; Siebenlist, F.; Sim, A.; Strand, W. G.; Wang, F.; Wilcox, H.; Wilhelmi, N.

    2010-08-16

    Established within DOE’s Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC-) 2 program, with support from ASCR and BER, the Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) is a consortium of seven laboratories (Argonne National Laboratory [ANL], Los Alamos National Laboratory [LANL], Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [LBNL], Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL], National Center for Atmospheric Research [NCAR], Oak Ridge National Laboratory [ORNL], and Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [PMEL]), and two institutes (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute [RPI] and the University of Southern California, Information Sciences Institute [USC/ISI]). The consortium’s mission is to provide climate researchers worldwide with a science gateway to access data, information, models, analysis tools, and computational capabilities required to evaluate extreme-scale data sets. Its stated goals are to (1) make data more useful to climate researchers by developing collaborative technology that enhances data usability; (2) meet the specific needs that national and international climate projects have for distributed databases, data access, and data movement; (3) provide a universal and secure web-based data access portal for broad-based multi-model data collections; and (4) provide a wide range of climate data-analysis tools and diagnostic methods to international climate centers and U.S. government agencies. To this end, the ESG-CET is working to integrate all highly publicized climate data sets—from climate simulations to observations—using distributed storage management, remote high-performance units, high-bandwidth wide-area networks, and user desktop platforms in a collaborative problem-solving environment.

  7. The anthroposphere as an anticipatory system: Open questions on steering the climate.

    PubMed

    Scolozzi, Rocco; Geneletti, Davide

    2017-02-01

    Climate change research and action counteracting it affect everyone and would involve cross-societal transformations reshaping the anthroposphere in its entirety. Scrutinizing climate-related science and policies, we recognize attempts to steer the evolution of climate according to expected (or modelled) futures. Such attempts would turn the anthroposphere into a large "anticipatory system", in which human society seeks to anticipate and, possibly, to govern climate dynamics. The chief aim of this discussion paper is to open a critical debate on the climate change paradigm (CCP) drawing on a strategic and systemic framework grounded in the concept of anticipatory system sensu Rosen (1991). The proposed scheme is ambitiously intended to turn an intricate issue into a complex but structured problem that is to say, to make such complexity clear and manageable. This framework emerges from concepts borrowed from different scientific fields (including future studies and system dynamics) and its background lies in a simple quantitative literature overview, relying upon a broad level of analysis. The proposed framework will assist researchers and policy makers in thinking of CCP in terms of an anticipatory system, and in disentangling its interrelated (and sometimes intricate) aspects. In point of fact, several strategic questions related to CCP were not subjected to an adequate transdisciplinary discussion: what are the interplays between physical processes and social-political interventions, who is the observer (what he/she is looking for), and which paradigm is being used (or who defines the desirable future). The proposed scheme allows to structure such various topics in an arrangement which is easier to communicate, highlighting the linkages in between, and making them intelligible and open to verification and discussion. Furthermore, ideally developments will help scientists and policy makers address the strategic gaps between the evidence-based climatological

  8. A NASA Climate Model Data Services (CDS) End-to-End System to Support Reanalysis Intercomparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carriere, L.; Potter, G. L.; McInerney, M.; Nadeau, D.; Shen, Y.; Duffy, D.; Schnase, J. L.; Maxwell, T. P.; Huffer, E.

    2014-12-01

    The NASA Climate Model Data Service (CDS) and the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) are collaborating to provide an end-to-end system for the comparative study of the major Reanalysis projects, currently, ECMWF ERA-Interim, NASA/GMAO MERRA, NOAA/NCEP CFSR, NOAA/ESRL 20CR, and JMA JRA25. Components of the system include the full spectrum of Climate Model Data Services; Data, Compute Services, Data Services, Analytic Services and Knowledge Services. The Data includes standard Reanalysis model output, and will be expanded to include gridded observations, and gridded Innovations (O-A and O-F). The NCCS High Performance Science Cloud provides the compute environment (storage, servers, and network). Data Services are provided through an Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) data node complete with Live Access Server (LAS), Web Map Service (WMS) and Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT) for visualization, as well as a collaborative interface through the Earth System CoG. Analytic Services include UV-CDAT for analysis and MERRA/AS, accessed via the CDS API, for computation services, both part of the CDS Climate Analytics as a Service (CAaaS). Knowledge Services include access to an Ontology browser, ODISEES, for metadata search and data retrieval. The result is a system that provides the ability for both reanalysis scientists and those scientists in need of reanalysis output to identify the data of interest, compare, compute, visualize, and research without the need for transferring large volumes of data, performing time consuming format conversions, and writing code for frequently run computations and visualizations.

  9. Perception of climate change and its impact by smallholders in pastoral/agropastoral systems of Borana, South Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Debela, Nega; Mohammed, Caroline; Bridle, Kerry; Corkrey, Ross; McNeil, David

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the perception of historic changes in climate and associated impact on local agriculture among smallholders in pastoral/agropastoral systems of Borana in southern Ethiopia. We drew on empirical data obtained from farm household surveys conducted in 5 districts, 20 pastoral/agropastoral associations and 480 farm households. Using this data, this study analyses smallholders' perception of climate change and its associated impact on local agriculture, and the effect of various household and farm attributes on perception. Results suggest that most participants perceived climatic change and its negative impact on agricultural and considered climate change as a salient risk to their future livelihoods and economic development. Different levels of perception were expressed in terms of climate change and the impact on traditional rain-fed agriculture. Age, education level, livestock holding, access to climate information and extension services significantly affected perception levels. Household size, production system, farm and non-farm incomes did not significantly affect perception levels of smallholders. Smallholders attributed climate change to a range of biophysical, deistic and anthropogenic causes. Increased access to agricultural support services, which improves the availability and the quality of relevant climate information will further enhance awareness of climate change within of the rural community and result in better management of climate-induced risks in these vulnerable agricultural systems.

  10. Regional modelling of nitrate leaching from Swiss organic and conventional cropping systems under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calitri, Francesca; Necpalova, Magdalena; Lee, Juhwan; Zaccone, Claudio; Spiess, Ernst; Herrera, Juan; Six, Johan

    2016-04-01

    Organic cropping systems have been promoted as a sustainable alternative to minimize the environmental impacts of conventional practices. Relatively little is known about the potential to reduce NO3-N leaching through the large-scale adoption of organic practices. Moreover, the potential to mitigate NO3-N leaching and thus the N pollution under future climate change through organic farming remain unknown and highly uncertain. Here, we compared regional NO3-N leaching from organic and conventional cropping systems in Switzerland using a terrestrial biogeochemical process-based model DayCent. The objectives of this study are 1) to calibrate and evaluate the model for NO3-N leaching measured under various management practices from three experiments at two sites in Switzerland; 2) to estimate regional NO3-N leaching patterns and their spatial uncertainty in conventional and organic cropping systems (with and without cover crops) for future climate change scenario A1B; 3) to explore the sensitivity of NO3-N leaching to changes in soil and climate variables; and 4) to assess the nitrogen use efficiency for conventional and organic cropping systems with and without cover crops under climate change. The data for model calibration/evaluation were derived from field experiments conducted in Liebefeld (canton Bern) and Eschikon (canton Zürich). These experiments evaluated effects of various cover crops and N fertilizer inputs on NO3-N leaching. The preliminary results suggest that the model was able to explain 50 to 83% of the inter-annual variability in the measured soil drainage (RMSE from 12.32 to 16.89 cm y-1). The annual NO3-N leaching was also simulated satisfactory (RMSE = 3.94 to 6.38 g N m-2 y-1), although the model had difficulty to reproduce the inter-annual variability in the NO3-N leaching losses correctly (R2 = 0.11 to 0.35). Future climate datasets (2010-2099) from the 10 regional climate models (RCM) were used in the simulations. Regional NO3-N leaching

  11. Climate system modeling program. Annual report, September 1, 1991--August 31, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Schimel, D.; Bretherton, F.

    1993-05-14

    The CSMP proposal to NSF contained a description of a project to examine variability of the climate system on decadal-to-contennial time scales, with an emphasis on eventually understanding the processes which led to climate variability over the past one to two centuries as a basis for validating models of potential future changes. The project thus focused first, on understanding, and second on understanding as a basis for the development of validation procedures for models intended for use in climate change applications. The principal activity of the first year of the project was a workshop on one of the major sources of interdecadal variability-the thermohaline circulation (THC) of the oceans. This workshop was focused on review of the cutting edge science of the THC, and on identification of opportunities for future research. The workshop report is attached.

  12. The response of high-impact blocking weather systems to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kennedy, Daniel; Parker, Tess; Woollings, Tim; Harvey, Benjamin; Shaffrey, Len

    2016-07-01

    Midlatitude weather and climate are dominated by the jet streams and associated eastward moving storm systems. Occasionally, however, these are blocked by persistent anticyclonic regimes known as blocking. Climate models generally predict a small decline in blocking frequency under anthropogenic climate change. However, confidence in these predictions is undermined by, among other things, a lack of understanding of the physical mechanisms underlying the change. Here we analyze blocking (mostly in the Euro-Atlantic sector) in a set of sensitivity experiments to determine the effect of different parts of the surface global warming pattern. We also analyze projected changes in the impacts of blocking such as temperature extremes. The results show that enhanced warming both in the tropics and over the Arctic act to strengthen the projected decline in blocking. The tropical changes are more important for the uncertainty in projected blocking changes, though the Arctic also affects the temperature anomalies during blocking.

  13. Insulated Concrete Form Walls Integrated With Mechanical Systems in a Cold Climate Test House

    SciTech Connect

    Mallay, D.; Wiehagen, J.

    2014-09-01

    Transitioning from standard light frame to a thermal mass wall system in a high performance home will require a higher level of design integration with the mechanical systems. The much higher mass in the ICF wall influences heat transfer through the wall and affects how the heating and cooling system responds to changing outdoor conditions. This is even more important for efficient, low-load homes with efficient heat pump systems in colder climates where the heating and cooling peak loads are significantly different from standard construction. This report analyzes a range of design features and component performance estimates in an effort to select practical, cost-effective solutions for high performance homes in a cold climate.

  14. Mathematics applied to the climate system: outstanding challenges and recent progress

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Paul D.; Cullen, Michael J. P.; Davey, Michael K.; Huthnance, John M.

    2013-01-01

    The societal need for reliable climate predictions and a proper assessment of their uncertainties is pressing. Uncertainties arise not only from initial conditions and forcing scenarios, but also from model formulation. Here, we identify and document three broad classes of problems, each representing what we regard to be an outstanding challenge in the area of mathematics applied to the climate system. First, there is the problem of the development and evaluation of simple physically based models of the global climate. Second, there is the problem of the development and evaluation of the components of complex models such as general circulation models. Third, there is the problem of the development and evaluation of appropriate statistical frameworks. We discuss these problems in turn, emphasizing the recent progress made by the papers presented in this Theme Issue. Many pressing challenges in climate science require closer collaboration between climate scientists, mathematicians and statisticians. We hope the papers contained in this Theme Issue will act as inspiration for such collaborations and for setting future research directions. PMID:23588054

  15. Assessment of the climate change impacts on fecal coliform contamination in a tidal estuarine system.

    PubMed

    Liu, Wen-Cheng; Chan, Wen-Ting

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is one of the key factors affecting the future microbiological water quality in rivers and tidal estuaries. A coupled 3D hydrodynamic and fecal coliform transport model was developed and applied to the Danshuei River estuarine system for predicting the influences of climate change on microbiological water quality. The hydrodynamic and fecal coliform model was validated using observational salinity and fecal coliform distributions. According to the analyses of the statistical error, predictions of the salinity and the fecal coliform concentration from the model simulation quantitatively agreed with the observed data. The validated model was then applied to predict the fecal coliform contamination as a result of climate change, including the change of freshwater discharge and the sea level rise. We found that the reduction of freshwater discharge under climate change scenarios resulted in an increase in the fecal coliform concentration. The sea level rise would decrease fecal coliform distributions because both the water level and the water volume increased. A reduction in freshwater discharge has a negative impact on the fecal coliform concentration, whereas a rising sea level has a positive influence on the fecal coliform contamination. An appropriate strategy for the effective microbiological management in tidal estuaries is required to reveal the persistent trends of climate in the future.

  16. Systems Approach to Climate, Water, and Diarrhea in Hubli-Dharwad, India.

    PubMed

    Mellor, Jonathan; Kumpel, Emily; Ercumen, Ayse; Zimmerman, Julie

    2016-12-06

    Anthropogenic climate change will likely increase diarrhea rates for communities with inadequate water, sanitation, or hygiene facilities including those with intermittent water supplies. Current approaches to study these impacts typically focus on the effect of temperature on all-cause diarrhea while excluding precipitation and diarrhea etiology while not providing actionable adaptation strategies. We develop a partially mechanistic, systems approach to estimate future diarrhea prevalence and design adaptation strategies. The model incorporates downscaled global climate models, water quality data, quantitative microbial risk assessment, and pathogen prevalence in an agent-based modeling framework incorporating precipitation and diarrhea etiology. It is informed using water quality and diarrhea data from Hubli-Dharwad, India-a city with an intermittent piped water supply exhibiting seasonal water quality variability vulnerable to climate change. We predict all-cause diarrhea prevalence to increase by 4.9% (Range: 1.5-9.0%) by 2011-2030, 11.9% (Range: 7.1-18.2%) by 2046-2065, and 18.2% (Range: 9.1-26.2%) by 2080-2099. Rainfall is an important modifying factor. Rotavirus prevalence is estimated to decline by 10.5% with Cryptosporidium and E. coli prevalence increasing by 9.9% and 6.3%, respectively, by 2080-2099 in this setting. These results suggest that ceramic water filters would be recommended as a climate adaptation strategy over chlorination. This work highlights the vulnerability of intermittent water supplies to climate change and the urgent need for improvements.

  17. Effects of climate, vegetation, and soils on consumptive water use and ground-water recharge to the Central Midwest Regional aquifer system, Mid-continent United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dugan, J.T.; Peckenpaugh, J.M.

    1985-01-01

    The Central Midwest aquifer system, in parts of Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, and Texas, is a region of great hydrologic diversity. This study examines the relationships between climate, vegetation, and soil that affect consumptive water use and recharge to the groundwater system. Computations of potential recharge and consumptive water use were restricted to those areas where the aquifers under consideration were the immediate underlying system. The principal method of analysis utilized a soil moisture computer model. This model requires four types of input: (1) hydrologic properties of the soils, (2) vegetation types, (3) monthly precipitation, and (4) computed monthly potential evapotranspiration (PET) values. The climatic factors that affect consumptive water use and recharge were extensively mapped for the study area. Nearly all the pertinent climatic elements confirmed the extreme diversity of the region. PET and those factors affecting it--solar radiation, temperature, and humidity--showed large regional differences; mean annual PET ranged from 36 to 70 inches in the study area. The seasonal climatic patterns indicate significant regional differences in those factors affecting seasonal consumptive water use and recharge. In the southern and western parts of the study area, consumptive water use occurred nearly the entire year; whereas, in northern parts it occurred primarily during the warm season (April through September). Results of the soil-moisture program, which added the effects of vegetation and the hydrologic characteristics of the soil to computed PET values, confirmed the significant regional differences in consumptive water use or actual evapotranspiration (AET) and potential groundwater recharge. Under two different vegetative conditions--the 1978 conditions and pre-agricultural conditions consisting of only grassland and woodland--overall differences in recharge were minimal. Mean annual recharge under

  18. CO₂-neutral wastewater treatment plants or robust, climate-friendly wastewater management? A systems perspective.

    PubMed

    Larsen, Tove A

    2015-12-15

    CO2-neutral wastewater treatment plants can be obtained by improving the recovery of internal wastewater energy resources (COD, nutrients, energy) and reducing energy demand as well as direct emissions of the greenhouse gases N2O and CH4. Climate-friendly wastewater management also includes the management of the heat resource, which is most efficiently recovered at the household level, and robust wastewater management must be able to cope with a possible resulting temperature decrease. At the treatment plant there is a substantial energy optimization potential, both from improving electromechanical devices and sludge treatment as well as through the implementation of more energy-efficient processes like the mainstream anammox process or nutrient recovery from urine. Whether CO2 neutrality can be achieved depends not only on the actual net electricity production, but also on the type of electricity replaced: the cleaner the marginal electricity the more difficult to compensate for the direct emissions, which can be substantial, depending on the stability of the biological processes. It is possible to combine heat recovery at the household scale and nutrient recovery from urine, which both have a large potential to improve the climate friendliness of wastewater management.

  19. Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

  20. Comparison of thermal comfort performance of two different types of road vehicle climate control systems.

    PubMed

    Quanten, S; Van Brecht, A; Berckmans, D

    2007-03-01

    The performance of climate control systems in vehicles becomes more and more important, especially against the background of the important relationship between compartment climate and driver mental condition and, thus, traffic safety. The performance of two different types of climate control systems, an un-air-conditioned heating/cooling device (VW) and an air-conditioning climate control unit (BMW), is compared using modern and practical evaluation techniques quantifying both the dynamic 3-D temperature distribution and the local air refreshment rate. Both systems suffer from considerable temperature gradients: temperature gradients in the U-AC (VW) car up to 8-9 degrees C are encountered, while the AC (BMW) delivers clear improvement resulting in temperature gradients of 5-6 degrees C. The experiments clearly demonstrate the effect of the presence of even a single passenger on the thermal regime, increasing the existing thermal discrepancies in the compartment with 15% independent of ventilation rate. Furthermore, in terms of air refreshment rates in the vehicle compartment, an air-conditioning unit halves the air refreshment time at all positions in the vehicle cabin, delivering a significant improvement in terms of human comfort. Similarly, extra air inlets in the back compartment of a car deliver progress in terms of cabin refreshment rate (93 s down to 50 s).

  1. The Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies: Focusing Technologies on Climate Datasets and Resource Needs

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, Dean N.

    2007-09-26

    This report discusses a project that used prototyping technology to access and analyze climate data. This project was initially funded under the DOE’s Next Generation Internet (NGI) program, with follow-on support from BER and the Mathematical, Information, and Computational Sciences (MICS) office. In this prototype, we developed Data Grid technologies for managing the movement and replication of large datasets, and applied these technologies in a practical setting (i.e., an ESG-enabled data browser based on current climate data analysis tools), achieving cross-country transfer rates of more than 500 Mb/s. Having demonstrated the potential for remotely accessing and analyzing climate data located at sites across the U.S., we won the “Hottest Infrastructure” award in the Network Challenge event. While the ESG I prototype project substantiated a proof of concept (“Turning Climate Datasets into Community Resources”), the SciDAC Earth System Grid (ESG) II project made this a reality. Our efforts targeted the development of metadata technologies (standard schema, XML metadata extraction based on netCDF, and a Metadata Catalog Service), security technologies (Web-based user registration and authentication, and community authorization), data transport technologies (GridFTPenabled OPeNDAP-G for high-performance access, robust multiple file transport and integration with mass storage systems, and support for dataset aggregation and subsetting), as well as web portal technologies to provide interactive access to climate data holdings. At this point, the technology was in place and assembled, and ESG II was poised to make a substantial impact on the climate modelling community.

  2. Climate Convention Implementation: An Opportunity for the Pacific Island Nations to Move Toward Sustainable Energy Systems

    PubMed

    Yu; Taplin; Gilmour

    1997-07-01

    / The impacts of global warming are among the more serious environmental threats for the Pacific Island countries. These nations justifiably argue that developed countries should give immediate priority to the implementation of climate change mitigation policies because of the severe nature of potential greenhouse impacts for the Pacific Islands. Another immediate priority acknowledged by these nations is the need for development of adaptation policies that plan for adjustment or adaptation, where possible, to the foreshadowed impacts of climate change. This article does not focus on adaptation or mitigation policy directly but on an allied opportunity that exists for the Pacific Islands via the auspices of the Climate Convention, because the existing very costly energy systems used in the Pacific Island region are fossil-fuel dependent. It is argued here that efforts can be made towards the development of energy systems that are ecologically sustainable because Pacific Island nations are eligible to receive assistance to introduce renewable energy technology and pursue energy conservation via implementation mechanisms of the Climate Convention and, in particular, through transfer of technology and via joint implementation. It is contended that assistance in the form of finance, technology, and human resource development from developed countries and international organizations would provide sustainable benefits in improving the local Pacific Island environments. It is also emphasized that mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is not the responsibility of the Pacific Islands as they contribute very little on a per capita global scale and a tiny proportion of total global greenhouse gas emissions.KEY WORDS: Pacific Islands; Climate change; Renewable energy; Framework Convention on Climate Change.

  3. Adapting to climate change in the mixed crop and livestock farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thornton, Philip K.; Herrero, Mario

    2015-09-01

    Mixed crop-livestock systems are the backbone of African agriculture, providing food security and livelihood options for hundreds of millions of people. Much is known about the impacts of climate change on the crop enterprises in the mixed systems, and some, although less, on the livestock enterprises. The interactions between crops and livestock can be managed to contribute to environmentally sustainable intensification, diversification and risk management. There is relatively little information on how these interactions may be affected by changes in climate and climate variability. This is a serious gap, because these interactions may offer some buffering capacity to help smallholders adapt to climate change.

  4. Climate Model Evaluation using New Datasets from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Loeb, Norman G.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Doelling, David R.

    2008-01-01

    There are some in the science community who believe that the response of the climate system to anthropogenic radiative forcing is unpredictable and we should therefore call off the quest . The key limitation in climate predictability is associated with cloud feedback. Narrowing the uncertainty in cloud feedback (and therefore climate sensitivity) requires optimal use of the best available observations to evaluate and improve climate model processes and constrain climate model simulations over longer time scales. The Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) is a satellite-based program that provides global cloud, aerosol and radiative flux observations for improving our understanding of cloud-aerosol-radiation feedbacks in the Earth s climate system. CERES is the successor to the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), which has widely been used to evaluate climate models both at short time scales (e.g., process studies) and at decadal time scales. A CERES instrument flew on the TRMM satellite and captured the dramatic 1998 El Nino, and four other CERES instruments are currently flying aboard the Terra and Aqua platforms. Plans are underway to fly the remaining copy of CERES on the upcoming NPP spacecraft (mid-2010 launch date). Every aspect of CERES represents a significant improvement over ERBE. While both CERES and ERBE measure broadband radiation, CERES calibration is a factor of 2 better than ERBE. In order to improve the characterization of clouds and aerosols within a CERES footprint, we use coincident higher-resolution imager observations (VIRS, MODIS or VIIRS) to provide a consistent cloud-aerosol-radiation dataset at climate accuracy. Improved radiative fluxes are obtained by using new CERES-derived Angular Distribution Models (ADMs) for converting measured radiances to fluxes. CERES radiative fluxes are a factor of 2 more accurate than ERBE overall, but the improvement by cloud type and at high latitudes can be as high as a factor of 5

  5. Interdisciplinary MSc and Doctoral Education in Climate System Science at the University of Hamburg

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dilly, Oliver; Stammer, Detlef; Pfeiffer, Eva-Maria

    2010-05-01

    Modern education in climate system sciences is based on a number of disciplines such as meteorology, geophysics, oceanography, geosciences and also economics and social sciences. Facts across these disciplines are required to address the faced key issues related to climate change effectively. Climate experts need to have profound knowledge that can only be achieved in interdisciplinary MSc and PhD programs. In Europe, graduate students who completed a BSc degree are typically proceeding with MSc programs to increase knowledge and qualification. Afterwards, the participation in a doctoral program may follow. Many doctoral programs include courses supporting disciplinary methodological and scientific background in particular. Those courses derive either from advanced MSc programs or specific trainings. Typically, interdisciplinary exchange is difficult to achieve at any stage of disciplinary graduate programs. Recent developments showed the need to educate climate experts in interdisciplinary MSc programs in climate system sciences for both researchers and professionals outside the university. The University of Hamburg offers an interdisciplinary 2-yr MSc program in Integrated System Sciences with 120 ECTS (30 compulsory, 90 eligible) in English language. If the MSc student decides to proceed with a PhD thesis, he/she may not necessarily complete the MSc program but may start to work on a specific and disciplinary doctoral thesis for 3 years. Each doctoral student is guided by an advisory panel (AP) which meets at least bi-annually. The AP consists of a Principal Advisor, a Co-Advisor and a Chair of the panel who come from neighboring disciplines. The structured doctoral program with only 12 CPs includes interdisciplinary compulsory courses and tailor-made eligible expert courses. Summer schools and soft skill courses add to both MSc and doctoral programs. Accordingly, the new graduate school concepts in climate system sciences at the University of Hamburg supports

  6. Thermal variability alters the impact of climate warming on consumer-resource systems.

    PubMed

    Fey, Samuel B; Vasseur, David A

    2016-07-01

    Thermal variation through space and time are prominent features of ecosystems that influence processes at multiple levels of biological organization. Yet, it remains unclear how populations embedded within biological communities will respond to climate warming in thermally variable environments, particularly as climate change alters existing patterns of thermal spatial and temporal variability. As environmental temperatures increase above historical ranges, organisms may increasingly rely on extreme habitats to effectively thermoregulate. Such locations desirable in their thermal attributes (e.g., thermal refugia) are often suboptimal for resource acquisition (e.g., underground tunnels). Thus, via the expected increase in both mean temperatures and diel thermal variation, climate warming may heighten the trade-off for consumers between behaviors maximizing thermal performance and those maximizing resource acquisition. Here, we integrate behavioral, physiological, and trophic ecology to provide a general framework for understanding how temporal thermal variation, mediated by access to a thermal refugium, alters the response of consumer-resource systems to warming. We use this framework to predict how temporal variation and access to thermal refugia affect the persistence of consumers and resources during climate warming, how the quality of thermal refugia impact consumer-resource systems, and how consumer-resource systems with fast vs. slow ecological dynamics respond to warming. Our results show that the spatial thermal variability provided by refugia can elevate consumer biomass at warmer temperatures despite reducing the fraction of time consumers spend foraging, that temporal variability detrimentally impacts consumers at high environmental temperatures, and that consumer-resource systems with fast ecological dynamics are most vulnerable to climate warming. Thus, incorporating both estimates of thermal variability and species interactions may be necessary to

  7. Insulated Concrete Form Walls Integrated With Mechanical Systems in a Cold Climate Test House

    SciTech Connect

    Mallay, D.; Wiehagen, J.

    2014-09-01

    Transitioning from standard light frame to a thermal mass wall system in a high performance home will require a higher level of design integration with the mechanical systems. The much higher mass in the ICF wall influences heat transfer through the wall and affects how the heating and cooling system responds to changing outdoor conditions. This is even more important for efficient, low-load homes with efficient heat pump systems in colder climates where the heating and cooling peak loads are significantly different from standard construction. This report analyzes a range of design features and component performance estimates in an effort to select practical, cost-effective solutions for high performance homes in a cold climate. Of primary interest is the influence of the ICF walls on developing an effective air sealing strategy and selecting an appropriate heating and cooling equipment type and capacity. The domestic water heating system is analyzed for costs and savings to investigate options for higher efficiency electric water heating. A method to ensure mechanical ventilation air flows is examined. The final solution package includes high-R mass walls, very low infiltration rates, multi-stage heat pump heating, solar thermal domestic hot water system, and energy recovery ventilation. This solution package can be used for homes to exceed 2012 International Energy Conservation Code requirements throughout all climate zones and achieves the DOE Challenge Home certification.

  8. The treatment of climate science in Integrated Assessment Modelling: integration of climate step function response in an energy system integrated assessment model.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dessens, Olivier

    2016-04-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are used as crucial inputs to policy-making on climate change. These models simulate aspect of the economy and climate system to deliver future projections and to explore the impact of mitigation and adaptation policies. The IAMs' climate representation is extremely important as it can have great influence on future political action. The step-function-response is a simple climate model recently developed by the UK Met Office and is an alternate method of estimating the climate response to an emission trajectory directly from global climate model step simulations. Good et al., (2013) have formulated a method of reconstructing general circulation models (GCMs) climate response to emission trajectories through an idealized experiment. This method is called the "step-response approach" after and is based on an idealized abrupt CO2 step experiment results. TIAM-UCL is a technology-rich model that belongs to the family of, partial-equilibrium, bottom-up models, developed at University College London to represent a wide spectrum of energy systems in 16 regions of the globe (Anandarajah et al. 2011). The model uses optimisation functions to obtain cost-efficient solutions, in meeting an exogenously defined set of energy-service demands, given certain technological and environmental constraints. Furthermore, it employs linear programming techniques making the step function representation of the climate change response adapted to the model mathematical formulation. For the first time, we have introduced the "step-response approach" method developed at the UK Met Office in an IAM, the TIAM-UCL energy system, and we investigate the main consequences of this modification on the results of the model in term of climate and energy system responses. The main advantage of this approach (apart from the low computational cost it entails) is that its results are directly traceable to the GCM involved and closely connected to well-known methods of

  9. A Decision Support System for Climate Change Adaptation in Rainfed Sectors of Agriculture for Central Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mátyás, Csaba; Berki, Imre; Drüszler, Áron; Eredics, Attila; Gálos, Borbála; Illés, Gábor; Móricz, Norbert; Rasztovits, Ervin; Czimber, Kornél

    2013-04-01

    • Background and aims: Rainfed sectors of agriculture such as nature-close forestry, non-irrigated agriculture and animal husbandry on nature-close pastures are threatened by projected climate change especially in low-elevation regions in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is the limiting factor of production and ecosystem stability. Therefore the importance of complex, long term management planning and of land use optimization is increasing. The aim of the Decision Support System under development is to raise awareness and initiate preparation for frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses in the mentioned sectors. • Services provided: The Decision Support System provides GIS-supported information about the most important regional and local risks and mitigation options regarding climate change impacts, projected for reference periods until 2100 (e.g. land cover/use and expectable changes, potential production, water and carbon cycle, biodiversity and other ecosystem services, potential pests and diseases, tolerance limits etc.). The projections are referring first of all on biological production (natural produce), but the System includes also social and economic consequences. • Methods: In the raster based system, the latest image processing technology is used. We apply fuzzy membership functions, Support Vector Machine and Maximum Likelihood classifier. The System is developed in the first step for a reference area in SW Hungary (Zala county). • Novelty: The coherent, fine-scale regional system integrates the basic information about present and projected climates, extremes, hydrology and soil conditions and expected production potential for three sectors of agriculture as options for land use and conservation. • Funding: The development of the Decision Support System "Agrárklíma" is supported by TÁMOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV and 4.2.2.B-10/1-2010-0018 "Talentum" joint EU-national research projects. Keywords: climate change

  10. Potential Effects of Climate Changes on Aquatic Systems: Laurentian Great Lakes and Precambrian Shield Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magnuson, J. J.; Webster, K. E.; Assel, R. A.; Bowser, C. J.; Dillon, P. J.; Eaton, J. G.; Evans, H. E.; Fee, E. J.; Hall, R. I.; Mortsch, L. R.; Schindler, D. W.; Quinn, F. H.

    1997-06-01

    increase but many complex reactions of the phytoplankton community to altered temperatures, thermocline depths, light penetrations and nutrient inputs would be expected. Zooplankton biomass would increase, but, again, many complex interactions are expected.Generally, the thermal habitat for warm-, cool- and even cold-water fishes would increase in size in deep stratified lakes, but would decrease in shallow unstratified lakes and in streams. Less dissolved oxygen below the thermocline of lakes would further degrade stratified lakes for cold water fishes. Growth and production would increase for fishes that are now in thermal environments cooler than their optimum but decrease for those that are at or above their optimum, provided they cannot move to a deeper or headwater thermal refuge. The zoogeographical boundary for fish species could move north by 500-600 km; invasions of warmer water fishes and extirpations of colder water fishes should increase. Aquatic ecosystems across the region do not necessarily exhibit coherent responses to climate changes and variability, even if they are in close proximity. Lakes, wetlands and streams respond differently, as do lakes of different depth or productivity. Differences in hydrology and the position in the hydrological flow system, in terrestrial vegetation and land use, in base climates and in the aquatic biota can all cause different responses. Climate change effects interact strongly with effects of other human-caused stresses such as eutrophication, acid precipitation, toxic chemicals and the spread of exotic organisms. Aquatic ecological systems in the region are sensitive to climate change and variation. Assessments of these potential effects are in an early stage and contain many uncertainties in the models and properties of aquatic ecological systems and of the climate system.

  11. Quantitative assessment of resilience of a water supply system under rainfall reduction due to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amarasinghe, Pradeep; Liu, An; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Barnes, Paul; McGree, James; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

    2016-09-01

    A water supply system can be impacted by rainfall reduction due to climate change, thereby reducing its supply potential. This highlights the need to understand the system resilience, which refers to the ability to maintain service under various pressures (or disruptions). Currently, the concept of resilience has not yet been widely applied in managing water supply systems. This paper proposed three technical resilience indictors to assess the resilience of a water supply system. A case study analysis was undertaken of the Water Grid system of Queensland State, Australia, to showcase how the proposed indicators can be applied to assess resilience. The research outcomes confirmed that the use of resilience indicators is capable of identifying critical conditions in relation to the water supply system operation, such as the maximum allowable rainfall reduction for the system to maintain its operation without failure. Additionally, resilience indicators also provided useful insight regarding the sensitivity of the water supply system to a changing rainfall pattern in the context of climate change, which represents the system's stability when experiencing pressure. The study outcomes will help in the quantitative assessment of resilience and provide improved guidance to system operators to enhance the efficiency and reliability of a water supply system.

  12. Interaction of the Climate System and the Solid Earth: Analysis of Observations and Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bryan, Frank

    2001-01-01

    Under SENH funding we have carried out a number of diverse analyses of interactions of the climate system (atmosphere, ocean, land surface hydrology) with the solid Earth. While the original work plan emphasized analysis of excitation of variations in Earth rotation, with a lesser emphasis on time variable gravity, opportunities that developed during the proposal period in connection with preparations for the GRACE mission led us to a more balanced effort between these two topics. The results of our research are outlined in several topical sections: (1) oceanic excitation of variations in Earth rotation; (2) short period atmosphere-ocean excitation of variations in Earth rotation; (3) analysis of coupled climate system simulation; (4) observing system simulation studies for GRACE mission design; and (5) oceanic response to atmospheric pressure loading.

  13. Climate Change Impacts on the Electric Power System in the Western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veselka, T. D.; Botterud, A.; Conzelmann, G.; Koritarov, V.; Poch, L. A.; Wang, J.

    2007-12-01

    Future climate change is projected to vary substantially across regions. Changes in regional temperature and precipitation patterns may have significant implications on our existing and future power system infrastructure. In this paper, we use results from regional climate models to examine the impacts of projected changes in temperature and precipitation on the development and operations of the power system in the Western United States. We study three scenarios to evaluate potential effects of climate change on the electricity demand as well as on the power supply side. Impacts are measured in terms of changes in investment requirements, fuel and generation mix, emissions of greenhouse gases and criteria pollutants, and thermal power water withdrawals and consumption. We also identify potential issues regarding the western transmission grid. Our methodology includes a long-term investment algorithm that takes into account interdependencies between hydroelectric, thermal power, and non-dispatchable resources, such as wind turbines. We also include temporal aspects associated with hydropower energy constraints, wind variability, thermal power plant availability, and hourly load profiles. Thermal power plant availability and resulting generation and fuel consumption are based on maintenance outage schedules and a probabilistic dispatch algorithm that accounts for random forced outages. We conclude with some observations regarding the vulnerability of our electricity infrastructure to projected regional climate changes.

  14. Soil moisture's underestimated role in climate change impact modelling in low-energy systems.

    PubMed

    le Roux, Peter Christiaan; Aalto, Juha; Luoto, Miska

    2013-10-01

    Shifts in precipitation regimes are an inherent component of climate change, but in low-energy systems are often assumed to be less important than changes in temperature. Because soil moisture is the hydrological variable most proximally linked to plant performance during the growing season in arctic-alpine habitats, it may offer the most useful perspective on the influence of changes in precipitation on vegetation. Here we quantify the influence of soil moisture for multiple vegetation properties at fine spatial scales, to determine the potential importance of soil moisture under changing climatic conditions. A fine-scale data set, comprising vascular species cover and field-quantified ecologically relevant environmental parameters, was analysed to determine the influence of soil moisture relative to other key abiotic predictors. Soil moisture was strongly related to community composition, species richness and the occurrence patterns of individual species, having a similar or greater influence than soil temperature, pH and solar radiation. Soil moisture varied considerably over short distances, and this fine-scale heterogeneity may contribute to offsetting the ecological impacts of changes in precipitation for species not limited to extreme soil moisture conditions. In conclusion, soil moisture is a key driver of vegetation properties, both at the species and community level, even in this low-energy system. Soil moisture conditions represent an important mechanism through which changing climatic conditions impact vegetation, and advancing our predictive capability will therefore require a better understanding of how soil moisture mediates the effects of climate change on biota.

  15. Quantifying causal pathways of interactions in the complex tropical climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Runge, Jakob; Donges, Jonathan; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Jajcay, Nicola; Marwan, Norbert; Palus, Milan; Kurths, Jürgen

    2015-04-01

    The focus of this work is to better understand the complex interplay between different subprocesses in the climate system, especially how tropical processes such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole, Tropical Atlantic Variability, and the tropical monsoons affect global climate. Here a novel data-driven method is proposed based on: (1) a dimension reduction of the global surface pressure field yielding components that represent various known subprocesses such as ENSO or the North Atlantic Oscillation, (2) a causal reconstruction algorithm to detect which subprocesses are only indirectly interacting or are only spuriously correlated due to common drivers, and (3) measures to identify causal pathways in the reconstructed interaction network. Two main results will be presented: (1) an hypothesis of a mechanism by which ENSO influences the Indian Monsoon within the surface pressure field. (2) In an explorative analysis it is shown that the method correctly identifies the major regions of upwelling convergence in the tropical oceans and also regions of strong downwelling. The approach provides a novel causal interaction perspective on complex spatio-temporal systems. Reference: Runge, J., Petoukhov, V., & Kurths, J. (2014). Quantifying the strength and delay of climatic interactions: the ambiguities of cross correlation and a novel measure based on graphical models. Journal of Climate, 27(2), 720-739. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00159.1

  16. Improving Our Fundamental Understanding of the Role of Aerosol Cloud Interactions in the Climate System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Seinfeld, John H.; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S.; Coe, Hugh; DeMott, Paul J.; Dunlea, Edward J.; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Guenther, Alex B.; Kahn, Ralph; Kraucunas, Ian; Kreidenweis, Sonia M.; Molina, Mario J.; Nenes, Athanasios; Penner, Joyce E.; Prather, Kimberly A.; Ramanathan, V.; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Rasch, Philip J.; Ravishankara, A. R.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Stephens, Graeme; Wood, Robert

    2016-01-01

    The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.

  17. Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate system.

    PubMed

    Seinfeld, John H; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S; Coe, Hugh; DeMott, Paul J; Dunlea, Edward J; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Guenther, Alex B; Kahn, Ralph; Kraucunas, Ian; Kreidenweis, Sonia M; Molina, Mario J; Nenes, Athanasios; Penner, Joyce E; Prather, Kimberly A; Ramanathan, V; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Rasch, Philip J; Ravishankara, A R; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Stephens, Graeme; Wood, Robert

    2016-05-24

    The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.

  18. Decision support system to study climate change impacts on crop production

    SciTech Connect

    Hoogenboom, G.; Tsuji, G.Y.; Pickering, N.B.; Curry, R.B.; Jones, J.W.; Singh, U. |; Godwin, D.C.

    1995-12-31

    Under the auspices of the International Benchmark Sites Network for Agrotechnology Transfer (IBSNAT) Project a Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) has been developed. DSSAT operates on a personal compute rand includes data base management programs for climate, soil, and cultural practice information; crop simulation models for cereal grains, grain legumes, and root crops; and seasonal strategy and risk analysis programs. The IBSNAT crop models use daily weather data, i.e., maximum and minimum air temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation, as inputs. One of the applications of DSSAT is, therefore, to study the potential impact of climate change on agricultural production. A new and special version of DSSAT (Version 2.5) was developed to facilitate studies of the effect of climate change on crop performance. In this version, the daily canopy photosynthesis and transpiration sections of the CERES and GRO models were modified to respond to changes in CO{sub 2} concentration. The management sections of the models and the strategy analysis program were expanded to include the option to modify weather data interactively. This decision support system has been used to study changes in crop yield, irrigation requirements, and other responses to global climate change in various regional, national, and international research programs. 65 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs.

  19. On the utility of proxy system models for estimating climate states over the common era

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dee, Sylvia G.; Steiger, Nathan J.; Emile-Geay, Julien; Hakim, Gregory J.

    2016-09-01

    Paleoclimate data assimilation has recently emerged as a promising technique to estimate past climate states. Here we test two of the underlying assumptions of paleoclimate data assimilation as applied so far: (1) climate proxies can be modeled as linear, univariate recorders of temperature and (2) structural errors in GCMs can be neglected. To investigate these two points and related uncertainties, we perform a series of synthetic, paleoclimate data assimilation-based reconstructions where "pseudo" proxies are generated with physically based proxy system models (PSMs) for coral δ18O, tree ring width, and ice core δ18O using two isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation models. For (1), we find that linear-univariate models efficiently capture the GCM's climate in ice cores and corals and do not lead to large losses in reconstruction skill. However, this does not hold for tree ring width, especially in regions where the trees' response is dominated by moisture supply; we quantify how the breakdown of this assumption lowers reconstruction skill for each proxy class. For (2), we find that climate model biases can introduce errors that greatly reduce reconstruction skill, with or without perfect proxy system models. We explore possible strategies for mitigating structural modeling errors in GCMs and discuss implications for paleoclimate reanalyses.

  20. Pilot climate data system: A state-of-the-art capability in scientific data management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, P. H.; Treinish, L. A.; Novak, L. V.

    1983-01-01

    The Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS) was developed by the Information Management Branch of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center to manage a large collection of climate-related data of interest to the research community. The PCDS now provides uniform data catalogs, inventories, access methods, graphical displays and statistical calculations for selected NASA and non-NASA data sets. Data manipulation capabilities were developed to permit researchers to easily combine or compare data. The current capabilities of the PCDS include many tools for the statistical survey of climate data. A climate researcher can examine any data set of interest via flexible utilities to create a variety of two- and three-dimensional displays, including vector plots, scatter diagrams, histograms, contour plots, surface diagrams and pseudo-color images. The graphics and statistics subsystems employ an intermediate data storage format which is data-set independent. Outside of the graphics system there exist other utilities to select, filter, list, compress, and calculate time-averages and variances for any data of interest. The PCDS now fully supports approximately twenty different data sets and is being used on a trial basis by several different in-house research grounds.

  1. Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate system

    DOE PAGES

    Seinfeld, John H.; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S.; ...

    2016-05-24

    The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth’s clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from pre-industrial time. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions but significant challengesmore » exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. Lastly, we suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.« less

  2. Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol−cloud interactions in the climate system

    PubMed Central

    Seinfeld, John H.; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S.; Coe, Hugh; DeMott, Paul J.; Dunlea, Edward J.; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Guenther, Alex B.; Kraucunas, Ian; Molina, Mario J.; Nenes, Athanasios; Penner, Joyce E.; Prather, Kimberly A.; Ramanathan, V.; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Rasch, Philip J.; Ravishankara, A. R.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Stephens, Graeme; Wood, Robert

    2016-01-01

    The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth’s clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol−cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol−cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol−cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty. PMID:27222566

  3. Improving our fundamental understanding of the role of aerosol-cloud interactions in the climate system

    SciTech Connect

    Seinfeld, John H.; Bretherton, Christopher; Carslaw, Kenneth S.; Coe, Hugh; DeMott, Paul J.; Dunlea, Edward J.; Feingold, Graham; Ghan, Steven; Guenther, Alex B.; Kahn, Ralph; Kraucunas, Ian; Kreidenweis, Sonia M.; Molina, Mario J.; Nenes, Athanasios; Penner, Joyce E.; Prather, Kimberly A.; Ramanathan, V.; Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam; Rasch, Philip J.; Ravishankara, A. R.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Stephens, Graeme; Wood, Robert

    2016-05-24

    The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth’s clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from pre-industrial time. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. Lastly, we suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty.

  4. A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    SciTech Connect

    Gent, Peter; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Conley, Andrew; Vertenstein, Mariana; Craig, Anthony

    2013-02-13

    The objective of this award was to build a scalable and extensible Earth System Model that can be used to study climate change science. That objective has been achieved with the public release of the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). In particular, the development of the CESM1 atmospheric chemistry component was substantially funded by this award, as was the development of the significantly improved coupler component. The CESM1 allows new climate change science in areas such as future air quality in very large cities, the effects of recovery of the southern hemisphere ozone hole, and effects of runoff from ice melt in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Results from a whole series of future climate projections using the CESM1 are also freely available via the web from the CMIP5 archive at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. Many research papers using these results have now been published, and will form part of the 5th Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is to be published late in 2013.

  5. GFDL's unified regional-global weather-climate modeling system with variable resolution capability for severe weather predictions and regional climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, S. J.

    2015-12-01

    The NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been developing a unified regional-global modeling system with variable resolution capabilities that can be used for severe weather predictions (e.g., tornado outbreak events and cat-5 hurricanes) and ultra-high-resolution (1-km) regional climate simulations within a consistent global modeling framework. The fundation of this flexible regional-global modeling system is the non-hydrostatic extension of the vertically Lagrangian dynamical core (Lin 2004, Monthly Weather Review) known in the community as FV3 (finite-volume on the cubed-sphere). Because of its flexability and computational efficiency, the FV3 is one of the final candidates of NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). We have built into the modeling system a stretched (single) grid capability, a two-way (regional-global) multiple nested grid capability, and the combination of the stretched and two-way nests, so as to make convection-resolving regional climate simulation within a consistent global modeling system feasible using today's High Performance Computing System. One of our main scientific goals is to enable simulations of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously regarded as impossible. In this presentation I will demonstrate that it is computationally feasible to simulate not only super-cell thunderstorms, but also the subsequent genesis of tornadoes using a global model that was originally designed for century long climate simulations. As a unified weather-climate modeling system, we evaluated the performance of the model with horizontal resolution ranging from 1 km to as low as 200 km. In particular, for downscaling studies, we have developed various tests to ensure that the large-scale circulation within the global varaible resolution system is well simulated while at the same time the small-scale can be accurately captured

  6. Urban drainage system planning and design--challenges with climate change and urbanization: a review.

    PubMed

    Yazdanfar, Zeinab; Sharma, Ashok

    2015-01-01

    Urban drainage systems are in general failing in their functions mainly due to non-stationary climate and rapid urbanization. As these systems are becoming less efficient, issues such as sewer overflows and increase in urban flooding leading to surge in pollutant loads to receiving water bodies are becoming pervasive rapidly. A comprehensive investigation is required to understand these factors impacting the functioning of urban drainage, which vary spatially and temporally and are more complex when weaving together. It is necessary to establish a cost-effective, integrated planning and design framework for every local area by incorporating fit for purpose alternatives. Carefully selected adaptive measures are required for the provision of sustainable drainage systems to meet combined challenges of climate change and urbanization. This paper reviews challenges associated with urban drainage systems and explores limitations and potentials of different adaptation alternatives. It is hoped that the paper would provide drainage engineers, water planners, and decision makers with the state of the art information and technologies regarding adaptation options to increase drainage systems efficiency under changing climate and urbanization.

  7. Understanding Student Cognition about Complex Earth System Processes Related to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNeal, K. S.; Libarkin, J.; Ledley, T. S.; Dutta, S.; Templeton, M. C.; Geroux, J.; Blakeney, G. A.

    2011-12-01

    The Earth's climate system includes complex behavior and interconnections with other Earth spheres that present challenges to student learning. To better understand these unique challenges, we have conducted experiments with high-school and introductory level college students to determine how information pertaining to the connections between the Earth's atmospheric system and the other Earth spheres (e.g., hydrosphere and cryosphere) are processed. Specifically, we include psychomotor tests (e.g., eye-tracking) and open-ended questionnaires in this research study, where participants were provided scientific images of the Earth (e.g., global precipitation and ocean and atmospheric currents), eye-tracked, and asked to provide causal or relational explanations about the viewed images. In addition, the students engaged in on-line modules (http://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/climate/index.html) focused on Earth system science as training activities to address potential cognitive barriers. The developed modules included interactive media, hands-on lessons, links to outside resources, and formative assessment questions to promote a supportive and data-rich learning environment. Student eye movements were tracked during engagement with the materials to determine the role of perception and attention on understanding. Students also completed a conceptual questionnaire pre-post to determine if these on-line curriculum materials assisted in their development of connections between Earth's atmospheric system and the other Earth systems. The pre-post results of students' thinking about climate change concepts, as well as eye-tracking results, will be presented.

  8. Data-Driven Synthesis for Investigating Food Systems Resilience to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magliocca, N. R.; Hart, D.; Hondula, K. L.; Munoz, I.; Shelley, M.; Smorul, M.

    2014-12-01

    The production, supply, and distribution of our food involves a complex set of interactions between farmers, rural communities, governments, and global commodity markets that link important issues such as environmental quality, agricultural science and technology, health and nutrition, rural livelihoods, and social institutions and equality - all of which will be affected by climate change. The production of actionable science is thus urgently needed to inform and prepare the public for the consequences of climate change for local and global food systems. Access to data that spans multiple sectors/domains and spatial and temporal scales is key to beginning to tackle such complex issues. As part of the White House's Climate Data Initiative, the USDA and the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) are launching a new collaboration to catalyze data-driven research to enhance food systems resilience to climate change. To support this collaboration, SESYNC is developing a new "Data to Motivate Synthesis" program designed to engage early career scholars in a highly interactive and dynamic process of real-time data discovery, analysis, and visualization to catalyze new research questions and analyses that would not have otherwise been possible and/or apparent. This program will be supported by an integrated, spatially-enabled cyberinfrastructure that enables the management, intersection, and analysis of large heterogeneous datasets relevant to food systems resilience to climate change. Our approach is to create a series of geospatial abstraction data structures and visualization services that can be used to accelerate analysis and visualization across various socio-economic and environmental datasets (e.g., reconcile census data with remote sensing raster datasets). We describe the application of this approach with a pilot workshop of socio-environmental scholars that will lay the groundwork for the larger SESYNC-USDA collaboration. We discuss the

  9. Assessing the vulnerability of traditional maize seed systems in Mexico to climate change.

    PubMed

    Bellon, Mauricio R; Hodson, David; Hellin, Jon

    2011-08-16

    Climate change is predicted to have major impacts on small-scale farmers in Mexico whose livelihoods depend on rain-fed maize. We examined the capacity of traditional maize seed systems to provide these farmers with appropriate genetic material under predicted agro-ecological conditions associated with climate change. We studied the structure and spatial scope of seed systems of 20 communities in four transects across an altitudinal gradient from 10-2,980 m above sea level in five states of eastern Mexico. Results indicate that 90% of all of the seed lots are obtained within 10 km of a community and 87% within an altitudinal range of ±50 m but with variation across four agro-climate environments: wet lowland, dry lowland, wet upper midlatitude, and highlands. Climate models suggest a drying and warming trend for the entire study area during the main maize season, leading to substantial shifts in the spatial distribution patterns of agro-climate environments. For all communities except those in the highlands, predicted future maize environments already are represented within the 10-km radial zones, indicating that in the future farmers will have easy access to adapted planting material. Farmers in the highlands are the most vulnerable and probably will need to acquire seed from outside their traditional geographical ranges. This change in seed sources probably will entail important information costs and the development of new seed and associated social networks, including improved linkages between traditional and formal seed systems and more effective and efficient seed-supply chains. The study has implications for analogous areas elsewhere in Mexico and around the world.

  10. Climate change and climate systems influence and control the atmospheric dispersion of desert dust: implications for human health

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Griffin, Dale W.; Ragaini, Richard C.

    2010-01-01

    The global dispersion of desert dust through Earth’s atmosphere is greatly influenced by temperature. Temporal analyses of ice core data have demonstrated that enhanced dust dispersion occurs during glacial events. This is due to an increase in ice cover, which results in an increase in drier terrestrial cover. A shorter temporal analysis of dust dispersion data over the last 40 years has demonstrated an increase in dust transport. Climate systems or events such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Indian Ocean subtropical High, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and El Nino-Sothern Oscillation are known to influence global short-term dust dispersion occurrence and transport routes. Anthropogenic influences on dust transport include deforestation, harmful use of topsoil for agriculture as observed during the American Dust Bowl period, and the creation of dry seas (Aral Sea) and lakes (Lake Owens in California and Lake Chad in North Africa) through the diversion of source waters (for irrigation and drinking water supplies). Constituents of desert dust both from source regions (pathogenic microorganisms, organic and inorganic toxins) and those scavenged through atmospheric transport (i.e., industrial and agricultural emissions) are known to directly impact human and ecosystem health. This presentation will present a review of global scale dust storms and how these events can be both a detriment and benefit to various organisms in downwind environments.

  11. The Community Land Model and Its Climate Statistics as a Component of the Community Climate System Model

    SciTech Connect

    Dickinson, Robert E.; Oleson, Keith; Bonan, Gordon; Hoffman, Forrest M; Thornton, Peter; Vertenstein, Mariana; Yang, Zong-Liang; Zeng, Xubin

    2006-01-01

    Several multidecadal simulations have been carried out with the new version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). This paper reports an analysis of the land component of these simulations. Global annual averages over land appear to be within the uncertainty of observational datasets, but the seasonal cycle over land of temperature and precipitation appears to be too weak. These departures from observations appear to be primarily a consequence of deficiencies in the simulation of the atmospheric model rather than of the land processes. High latitudes of northern winter are biased sufficiently warm to have a significant impact on the simulated value of global land temperature. The precipitation is approximately doubled from what it should be at some locations, and the snowpack and spring runoff are also excessive. The winter precipitation over Tibet is larger than observed. About two-thirds of this precipitation is sublimated during the winter, but what remains still produces a snowpack that is very large compared to that observed with correspondingly excessive spring runoff. A large cold anomaly over the Sahara Desert and Sahel also appears to be a consequence of a large anomaly in downward longwave radiation; low column water vapor appears to be most responsible. The modeled precipitation over the Amazon basin is low compared to that observed, the soil becomes too dry, and the temperature is too warm during the dry season.

  12. A coupled human-natural systems analysis of irrigated agriculture under changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giuliani, M.; Li, Y.; Castelletti, A.; Gandolfi, C.

    2016-09-01

    Exponentially growing water demands and increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes due to changes in climate and land use are challenging the sustainability of agricultural water systems. Farmers must adapt their management strategies in order to secure food production and avoid crop failures. Investigating the potential for adaptation policies in agricultural systems requires accounting for their natural and human components, along with their reciprocal interactions. Yet this feedback is generally overlooked in the water resources systems literature. In this work, we contribute a novel modeling approach to study the coevolution of irrigated agriculture under changing climate, advancing the representation of the human component within agricultural systems by using normative meta-models to describe the behaviors of groups of farmers or institutional decisions. These behavioral models, validated against observational data, are then integrated into a coupled human-natural system simulation model to better represent both systems and their coevolution under future changing climate conditions, assuming the adoption of different policy adaptation options, such as cultivating less water demanding crops. The application to the pilot study of the Adda River basin in northern Italy shows that the dynamic coadaptation of water supply and demand allows farmers to avoid estimated potential losses of more than 10 M€/yr under projected climate changes, while unilateral adaptation of either the water supply or the demand are both demonstrated to be less effective. Results also show that the impact of the different policy options varies as function of drought intensity, with water demand adaptation outperforming water supply adaptation when drought conditions become more severe.

  13. Transient simulations of the present and the last interglacial climate using the Community Climate System Model version 3: effects of orbital acceleration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Varma, Vidya; Prange, Matthias; Schulz, Michael

    2016-11-01

    Numerical simulations provide a considerable aid in studying past climates. Out of the various approaches taken in designing numerical climate experiments, transient simulations have been found to be the most optimal when it comes to comparison with proxy data. However, multi-millennial or longer simulations using fully coupled general circulation models are computationally very expensive such that acceleration techniques are frequently applied. In this study, we compare the results from transient simulations of the present and the last interglacial with and without acceleration of the orbital forcing, using the comprehensive coupled climate model CCSM3 (Community Climate System Model version 3). Our study shows that in low-latitude regions, the simulation of long-term variations in interglacial surface climate is not significantly affected by the use of the acceleration technique (with an acceleration factor of 10) and hence, large-scale model-data comparison of surface variables is not hampered. However, in high-latitude regions where the surface climate has a direct connection to the deep ocean, e.g. in the Southern Ocean or the Nordic Seas, acceleration-induced biases in sea-surface temperature evolution may occur with potential influence on the dynamics of the overlying atmosphere.

  14. Climate engineering of vegetated land for hot extremes mitigation: An Earth system model sensitivity study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilhelm, Micah; Davin, Edouard L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2015-04-01

    Various climate engineering schemes have been proposed as a way to curb anthropogenic climate change. Land climate engineering schemes aiming to reduce the amount of solar radiation absorbed at the surface by changes in land surface albedo have been considered in a limited number of investigations. However, global studies on this topic have generally focused on the impacts on mean climate rather than extremes. Here we present the results of a series of transient global climate engineering sensitivity experiments performed with the Community Earth System Model over the time period 1950-2100 under historical and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenarios. Four sets of experiments are performed in which the surface albedo over snow-free vegetated grid points is increased respectively by 0.05, 0.10, 0.15, and 0.20. The simulations show a preferential cooling of hot extremes relative to mean temperatures throughout the Northern midlatitudes during boreal summer under the late twentieth century conditions. Two main mechanisms drive this response: On the one hand, a stronger efficacy of the albedo-induced radiative forcing on days with high incoming shortwave radiation and, on the other hand, enhanced soil moisture-induced evaporative cooling during the warmest days relative to the control simulation due to accumulated soil moisture storage and reduced drying. The latter effect is dominant in summer in midlatitude regions and also implies a reduction of summer drought conditions. It thus constitutes another important benefit of surface albedo modifications in reducing climate change impacts. The simulated response for the end of the 21st century conditions is of the same sign as that for the end of the twentieth century conditions but indicates an increasing absolute impact of land surface albedo increases in reducing mean and extreme temperatures under enhanced greenhouse gas forcing.

  15. Uncertainty quantification and propagation in a complex human-environment system driven by fire and climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terando, A. J.; Reich, B. J.; Pacifici, K.

    2013-12-01

    Fire is an important disturbance process in many coupled natural-human systems. Changes in the frequency and severity of fires due to anthropogenic climate change could have significant costs to society and the plant and animal communities that are adapted to a particular fire regime Planning for these changes requires a robust model of the relationship between climate and fire that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty that are present when simulating ecological and climatological processes. Here we model how anthropogenic climate change could affect the wildfire regime for a region in the Southeast US whose natural ecosystems are dependent on frequent, low-intensity fires while humans are at risk from large catastrophic fires. We develop a modeling framework that incorporates three major sources of uncertainty: (1) uncertainty in the ecological drivers of expected monthly area burned, (2) uncertainty in the environmental drivers influencing the probability of an extreme fire event, and (3) structural uncertainty in different downscaled climate models. In addition we use two policy-relevant emission scenarios (climate stabilization and 'business-as-usual') to characterize the uncertainty in future greenhouse gas forcings. We use a Bayesian framework to incorporate different sources of uncertainty including simulation of predictive errors and Stochastic Search Variable Selection. Our results suggest that although the mean process remains stationary, the probability of extreme fires declines through time, owing to the persistence of high atmospheric moisture content during the peak fire season that dampens the effect of increasing temperatures. Including multiple sources of uncertainty leads to wide prediction intervals, but is potentially more useful for decision-makers that will require adaptation strategies that are robust to rapid but uncertain climate and ecological change.

  16. Climate correlates of 20 years of trophic changes in a high-elevation riparian system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, T.E.

    2007-01-01

    The consequences of climate change for ecosystem structure and function remain largely unknown. Here, I examine the ability of climate variation to explain long-term changes in bird and plant populations, as well as trophic interactions in a high-elevation riparian system in central Arizona, USA, based on 20 years of study. Abundances of dominant deciduous trees have declined dramatically over the 20 years, correlated with a decline in overwinter snowfall. Snowfall can affect overwinter presence of elk, whose browsing can significantly impact deciduous tree abundance. Thus, climate may affect the plant community indirectly through effects on herbivores, but may also act directly by influencing water availability for plants. Seven species of birds were found to initiate earlier breeding associated with an increase in spring temperature across years. The advance in breeding time did not affect starvation of young or clutch size. Earlier breeding also did not increase the length of the breeding season for single-brooded species, but did for multi-brooded species. Yet, none of these phenology-related changes was associated with bird population trends. Climate had much larger consequences for these seven bird species by affecting trophic levels below (plants) and above (predators) the birds. In particular, the climate-related declines in deciduous vegetation led to decreased abundance of preferred bird habitat and increased nest predation rates. In addition, summer precipitation declined over time, and drier summers also were further associated with greater nest predation in all species. The net result was local extinction and severe population declines in some previously common bird species, whereas one species increased strongly in abundance, and two species did not show clear population changes. These data indicate that climate can alter ecosystem structure and function through complex pathways that include direct and indirect effects on abundances and interactions

  17. Impacts and environmental catastrophes: A study of the effects of impact events on the climate system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pierazzo, E.

    2005-01-01

    The goal of this work is to investigate the perturbation of the climate system due to large impact events. Impacts are among the most important mechanisms for the evolution, distribution, and destruction of life in the universe. However, the possible climatic effects of an impact were not seriously considered until 1980, when Louis and Walter Alvarez suggested that the profound end-Cretaceous extinction might have been caused by the impact of an asteroid or comet about 10 km in diameter. Since then, the climatic change associated with the end-Cretaceous impact has become one of the most interesting and still unresolved questions in linking the well-known Chicxulub impact event and the end- Cretaceous mass extinction. While the end-Cretaceous impact offers the best-documented case of an impact affecting the Earth's climate and biota, even smaller (and more frequent in time) impacts could introduce significant perturbations of the climate comparable, if not larger, to the largest known volcanic perturbations. We propose to study the mechanical and thermal state of the atmosphere following an impact event. This will be done by using both one-dimensional and three-dimensional climate models. When necessary, modifications of the state-of-the-art general circulation models will b e carried out. We want to use the end-Cretaceous impact event as a case study. This allows us to take advantage of the extensive modeling of this impact event that has already been carried out through a previous Exobiology grant. Furthermore, a large experimental dataset, that can be used to constrain and test our models, is associated with the end-Cretaceous mass extinction (one of the largest of the Phanerozoic) and impact event.

  18. Land-surface processes and monsoon climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Yongkang; De Sales, Fernando; Lau, William; Boone, Arron; Mechoso, Carlos

    2015-04-01

    Yongkang Xue, F. De Sales, B. Lau, A. Boone, C. R. Mechoso Differential thermal heating of land and ocean and heat release into the atmosphere are important factors that determine the onset, strength, duration and spatial distribution of large-scale monsoons. A global and seasonal assessment of land surface process (LSP) effects on the monsoon system has been made based on general circulation models (GCM) coupled to different benchmark land models, which physically represent either comprehensive, or partial, or minimal LSP representations. Observed precipitation is applied as constrain and differences in simulation error are used to assess the effect of the LSP with different complexity. The AGCM results indicate that the land/atmosphere interaction has substantial impact on global water cycle, while the monsoon regions have had strongest impact at intraseasonal to decadal scales. Among monsoon regions, West Africa, South Asia, East Asia, and Amazon regions have largest impact while some monsoon regions have less impact due to strong air/sea interactions and narrow land mass there. LSP reduces the annual precipitation error by 58% over global monsoon regions, about 35% observed precipitation. The partial LSP effect (excluding soil moisture and vegetation albedo) reduces annual precipitation error over monsoon region that equals to about 13% of observed precipitation. The LSP affects the monsoon evolution through different mechanisms at different scales. It affects the surface energy balance and energy partitioning in latent and sensible heat, the atmospheric heating rate, and general circulation. The LSP effects have also been assessed in the land use land cover change experiment. Based on recently compiled global land-use data from 1948-2005, the GCM simulation results indicate the degradation in Mexico, West Africa, south and East Asia and South America produce substantial precipitation anomalies, some of which are consistent with observed regional precipitation

  19. Land-surface processes and monsoon climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Differential thermal heating of land and ocean and heat release into the atmosphere are important factors that determine the onset, strength, duration and spatial distribution of large-scale monsoons. A global and seasonal assessment of land surface process (LSP) effects on the monsoon system has been made based on general circulation models (GCM) coupled to different benchmark land models, which physically represent either comprehensive, or partial, or minimal LSP representations. Observed precipitation is applied as constrain and differences in simulation error are used to assess the effect of the LSP with different complexity. The AGCM results indicate that the land/atmosphere interaction has substantial impact on global water cycle, while the monsoon regions have had strongest impact at intraseasonal to decadal scales. Among monsoon regions, West Africa, South Asia, East Asia, and Amazon regions have largest impact while some monsoon regions have less impact due to strong air/sea interactions and narrow land mass. LSP reduces the annual precipitation error by 58% over global monsoon regions, about 35% observed precipitation. The partial LSP effect (excluding soil moisture and vegetation albedo) reduces annual precipitation error over monsoon region that equals to about 13% of observed precipitation. It has also been suggested that LSP contribute to the abrupt jump in latitude of the East Asian monsoon as well as general circulation turning in some monsoon regions in its early stages. The LSP effects have also been assessed in the land use land cover change experiment. Based on recently compiled global land-use data from 1948-2005, the GCM simulation results indicate the degradation in Mexico, West Africa, south and East Asia and South America produce substantial precipitation anomalies, some of which are consistent with observed regional precipitation anomalies. More comprehensive studies with multi-models are imperatively necessary.

  20. Designing a new cropping system for high productivity and sustainable water usage under climate change

    PubMed Central

    Meng, Qingfeng; Wang, Hongfei; Yan, Peng; Pan, Junxiao; Lu, Dianjun; Cui, Zhenling; Zhang, Fusuo; Chen, Xinping

    2017-01-01

    The food supply is being increasingly challenged by climate change and water scarcity. However, incremental changes in traditional cropping systems have achieved only limited success in meeting these multiple challenges. In this study, we applied a systematic approach, using model simulation and data from two groups of field studies conducted in the North China Plain, to develop a new cropping system that improves yield and uses water in a sustainable manner. Due to significant warming, we identified a double-maize (M-M; Zea mays L.) cropping system that replaced the traditional winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) –summer maize system. The M-M system improved yield by 14–31% compared with the conventionally managed wheat-maize system, and achieved similar yield compared with the incrementally adapted wheat-maize system with the optimized cultivars, planting dates, planting density and water management. More importantly, water usage was lower in the M-M system than in the wheat-maize system, and the rate of water usage was sustainable (net groundwater usage was ≤150 mm yr−1). Our study indicated that systematic assessment of adaptation and cropping system scale have great potential to address the multiple food supply challenges under changing climatic conditions. PMID:28155860

  1. Designing a new cropping system for high productivity and sustainable water usage under climate change.

    PubMed

    Meng, Qingfeng; Wang, Hongfei; Yan, Peng; Pan, Junxiao; Lu, Dianjun; Cui, Zhenling; Zhang, Fusuo; Chen, Xinping

    2017-02-03

    The food supply is being increasingly challenged by climate change and water scarcity. However, incremental changes in traditional cropping systems have achieved only limited success in meeting these multiple challenges. In this study, we applied a systematic approach, using model simulation and data from two groups of field studies conducted in the North China Plain, to develop a new cropping system that improves yield and uses water in a sustainable manner. Due to significant warming, we identified a double-maize (M-M; Zea mays L.) cropping system that replaced the traditional winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) -summer maize system. The M-M system improved yield by 14-31% compared with the conventionally managed wheat-maize system, and achieved similar yield compared with the incrementally adapted wheat-maize system with the optimized cultivars, planting dates, planting density and water management. More importantly, water usage was lower in the M-M system than in the wheat-maize system, and the rate of water usage was sustainable (net groundwater usage was ≤150 mm yr(-1)). Our study indicated that systematic assessment of adaptation and cropping system scale have great potential to address the multiple food supply challenges under changing climatic conditions.

  2. Designing a new cropping system for high productivity and sustainable water usage under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, Qingfeng; Wang, Hongfei; Yan, Peng; Pan, Junxiao; Lu, Dianjun; Cui, Zhenling; Zhang, Fusuo; Chen, Xinping

    2017-02-01

    The food supply is being increasingly challenged by climate change and water scarcity. However, incremental changes in traditional cropping systems have achieved only limited success in meeting these multiple challenges. In this study, we applied a systematic approach, using model simulation and data from two groups of field studies conducted in the North China Plain, to develop a new cropping system that improves yield and uses water in a sustainable manner. Due to significant warming, we identified a double-maize (M-M; Zea mays L.) cropping system that replaced the traditional winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) –summer maize system. The M-M system improved yield by 14–31% compared with the conventionally managed wheat-maize system, and achieved similar yield compared with the incrementally adapted wheat-maize system with the optimized cultivars, planting dates, planting density and water management. More importantly, water usage was lower in the M-M system than in the wheat-maize system, and the rate of water usage was sustainable (net groundwater usage was ≤150 mm yr‑1). Our study indicated that systematic assessment of adaptation and cropping system scale have great potential to address the multiple food supply challenges under changing climatic conditions.

  3. A bottom-up approach to identifying the maximum operational adaptive capacity of water resource systems to a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Culley, S.; Noble, S.; Yates, A.; Timbs, M.; Westra, S.; Maier, H. R.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

    2016-09-01

    Many water resource systems have been designed assuming that the statistical characteristics of future inflows are similar to those of the historical record. This assumption is no longer valid due to large-scale changes in the global climate, potentially causing declines in water resource system performance, or even complete system failure. Upgrading system infrastructure to cope with climate change can require substantial financial outlay, so it might be preferable to optimize existing system performance when possible. This paper builds on decision scaling theory by proposing a bottom-up approach to designing optimal feedback control policies for a water system exposed to a changing climate. This approach not only describes optimal operational policies for a range of potential climatic changes but also enables an assessment of a system's upper limit of its operational adaptive capacity, beyond which upgrades to infrastructure become unavoidable. The approach is illustrated using the Lake Como system in Northern Italy—a regulated system with a complex relationship between climate and system performance. By optimizing system operation under different hydrometeorological states, it is shown that the system can continue to meet its minimum performance requirements for more than three times as many states as it can under current operations. Importantly, a single management policy, no matter how robust, cannot fully utilize existing infrastructure as effectively as an ensemble of flexible management policies that are updated as the climate changes.

  4. Direct and semi-direct aerosol radiative effect on the Mediterranean climate variability using a coupled regional climate system model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nabat, Pierre; Somot, Samuel; Mallet, Marc; Sevault, Florence; Chiacchio, Marc; Wild, Martin

    2015-02-01

    A fully coupled regional climate system model (CNRM-RCSM4) has been used over the Mediterranean region to investigate the direct and semi-direct effects of aerosols, but also their role in the radiation-atmosphere-ocean interactions through multi-annual ensemble simulations (2003-2009) with and without aerosols and ocean-atmosphere coupling. Aerosols have been taken into account in CNRM-RCSM4 through realistic interannual monthly AOD climatologies. An evaluation of the model has been achieved, against various observations for meteorological parameters, and has shown the ability of CNRM-RCSM4 to reproduce the main patterns of the Mediterranean climate despite some biases in sea surface temperature (SST), radiation and cloud cover. The results concerning the aerosol radiative effects show a negative surface forcing on average because of the absorption and scattering of the incident radiation. The SW surface direct effect is on average -20.9 Wm-2 over the Mediterranean Sea, -14.7 Wm-2 over Europe and -19.7 Wm-2 over northern Africa. The LW surface direct effect is weaker as only dust aerosols contribute (+4.8 Wm-2 over northern Africa). This direct effect is partly counterbalanced by a positive semi-direct radiative effect over the Mediterranean Sea (+5.7 Wm-2 on average) and Europe (+5.0 Wm-2) due to changes in cloud cover and atmospheric circulation. The total aerosol effect is consequently negative at the surface and responsible for a decrease in land (on average -0.4 °C over Europe, and -0.5 °C over northern Africa) and sea surface temperature (on average -0.5 °C for the Mediterranean SST). In addition, the latent heat loss is shown to be weaker (-11.0 Wm-2) in the presence of aerosols, resulting in a decrease in specific humidity in the lower troposphere, and a reduction in cloud cover and precipitation. Simulations also indicate that dust aerosols warm the troposphere by absorbing solar radiation, and prevent radiation from reaching the surface, thus

  5. Testing a theory of organizational culture, climate and youth outcomes in child welfare systems: a United States national study.

    PubMed

    Williams, Nathaniel J; Glisson, Charles

    2014-04-01

    Theories of organizational culture and climate (OCC) applied to child welfare systems hypothesize that strategic dimensions of organizational culture influence organizational climate and that OCC explains system variance in youth outcomes. This study provides the first structural test of the direct and indirect effects of culture and climate on youth outcomes in a national sample of child welfare systems and isolates specific culture and climate dimensions most associated with youth outcomes. The study applies multilevel path analysis (ML-PA) to a U.S. nationwide sample of 2,380 youth in 73 child welfare systems participating in the second National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-being. Youths were selected in a national, two-stage, stratified random sample design. Youths' psychosocial functioning was assessed by caregivers' responses to the Child Behavior Checklist at intake and at 18-month follow-up. OCC was assessed by front-line caseworkers' (N=1,740) aggregated responses to the Organizational Social Context measure. Comparison of the a priori and subsequent trimmed models confirmed a reduced model that excluded rigid organizational culture and explained 70% of the system variance in youth outcomes. Controlling for youth- and system-level covariates, systems with more proficient and less resistant organizational cultures exhibited more functional, more engaged, and less stressful climates. Systems with more proficient cultures and more engaged, more functional, and more stressful climates exhibited superior youth outcomes. Findings suggest child welfare administrators can support service effectiveness with interventions that improve specific dimensions of culture and climate.

  6. PERSPECTIVE: On the verge of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kriegler, Elmar

    2007-03-01

    The recent publication of the summary for policy makers by Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1] has injected a renewed sense of urgency to address climate change. It is therefore timely to review the notion of preventing 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' as put forward in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The article by Danny Harvey in this issue [2] offers a fresh perspective by rephrasing the concept of 'dangerous interference' as a problem of risk assessment. As Harvey points out, identification of 'dangerous interference' does not require us to know with certainty that future climate change will be dangerous—an impossible task given that our knowledge about future climate change includes uncertainty. Rather, it requires the assertion that interference would lead to a significant probability of dangerous climate change beyond some risk tolerance, and therefore would pose an unacceptable risk. In his article [2], Harvey puts this idea into operation by presenting a back-of-the-envelope calculation to identify allowable CO2 concentrations under uncertainty about climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing and the location of a temperature threshold beyond which dangerous climate change will occur. Conditional on his assumptions, Harvey delivers an interesting result. With the current atmospheric CO2 concentration exceeding 380 ppm, a forcing contribution from other greenhouse gases adding an approximate 100 110 ppm CO2 equivalent on top of it, and a global dimming effect of aerosols that roughly compensates for this contribution (albeit still subject to considerable uncertainty) ([1], figures SPM-1 and 2), we are on the verge of or even committed to dangerous interference with the climate system if we (1) set the risk tolerance for experiencing dangerous climate change to 1% and (2) allocate at least 5% probability to the belief that climate sensitivity is 4

  7. Climate change and livestock system in mountain: Understanding from Gandaki River basin of Nepal Himalaya.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dahal, P.; Shrestha, N. S.; Krakauer, N.; Lakhankar, T.; Panthi, J., Sr.; Pradhanang, S.; Jha, A. K.; Shrestha, M.; Sharma, M.

    2015-12-01

    In recent years climate change has emerged as a source of vulnerability for agro-livestock smallholders in Nepal where people are mostly dependent on rain-fed agriculture and livestock farming for their livelihoods. There is a need to understand and predict the potential impacts of climate change on agro-livestock farmer to develop effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. To understand dynamics of this vulnerability, we assess the farmers' perceptions of climate change, analysis of historical and future projections of climatic parameters and try to understand impact of climate change on livestock system in Gandaki River Basin of Central Nepal. During the period of 1981-2012, as reported by the mountain communities, the most serious hazards for livestock system and agriculture are the increasing trend of temperature, erratic rainfall patterns and increase in drought. Poor households without irrigated land are facing greater risks and stresses than well-off people. Analysis of historical climate data also supports the farmer perception. Result shows that there is increasing trend of temperature but no consistent trend in precipitation but a notable finding is that wet areas are getting wetter and dry areas getting drier. Besides that, there is increase in percentage of warm days and nights with decrease in the cool nights and days. The magnitude of the trend is found to be higher in high altitude. Trend of wet days has found to be increasing with decreasing in rainy days. Most areas are characterized by increases in both severity and frequency of drought and are more evident in recent years. The summers of 2004/05/06/09 and winters of 2006/08/09 were the worst widespread droughts and have a serious impact on livestock since 1981. Future projected change in temperature and precipitation obtained from downscaling the data global model by regional climate model shows that precipitation in central Nepal will change by -8% to 12% and temperature will change by 1

  8. Cultivating a Network For Messaging About Climate Change Across an Urban System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wertheim, J.

    2014-12-01

    Currently, some of the most promising efforts to address climate change are taking place at the scale of cities and municipalities. Large urban areas host an active population of organizations working to influence local environmental policies more rigorous than those at the state and national level. The composition of these groups is broadening as impacts of climate change are being recognized as relevant to more sectors within urban systems, from health centers to community leaders, leading more organizations to consider how they can raise awareness and gain support for their needs. The National Geographic Society, as part of the National Science Foundation (NSF)-funded Climate and Urban Systems Partnership (CUSP), has convened a pilot "community of practice" (CoP) consisting of organizations working at the local level in Washington, DC to communicate with audiences, from the general public to local government agencies, about ways that climate change is predicted to affect the city and what can be done about it. The purpose of the CoP was initially to help these groups coordinate their activities, share knowledge and resources, and to create a platform for ongoing collaborative learning. While the CoP is still evolving, it is clear that it has potential to provide even deeper and more meaningful support to these groups' efforts. Developing effective messaging about climate change across an urban system depends on the valuable insight these groups have into their audience's interests, beliefs, and knowledge, but it also requires a set of competencies that few members of the CoP hold. As conveners of the CoP, we have identified and prioritized those competencies and are developing a process for training CoP members to apply their expertise to implement empirically-based best practices in climate change messaging, public communication, and integration of data and visualizations. The process of training the group has the potential to both create a CoP that becomes a

  9. Analysis of Radiant Cooling System Configurations Integrated with Cooling Tower for Different Indian Climatic Zones

    SciTech Connect

    Mathur, Jyotirmay; Bhandari, Mahabir S; Jain, Robin; Srivastava, Prateek

    2016-01-01

    Radiant cooling system has proven to be a low energy consumption system for building cooling needs. This study describes the use of cooling tower in radiant cooling system to improve the overall system efficiency. A comprehensive simulation feasibility study of the application of cooling tower in radiant cooling system was performed for the fifteen cities in different climatic zones of India. It was found that in summer, the wet bulb temperature (WBT) of the different climatic zones except warm-humid is suitable for the integration of cooling tower with radiant cooling system. In these climates, cooling tower can provide on average 24 C to 27 C water In order to achieve the energy saving potential, three different configurations of radiant cooling system have been compared in terms of energy consumption. The different configurations of the radiant cooling system integrated with cooling tower are: (1) provide chilled water to the floor, wall and ceiling mounted tubular installation. (2) provide chilled water to the wall and ceiling mounted tabular installation. In this arrangement a separate chiller has also been used to provide chilled water at 16 C to the floor mounted tubular installation. (3) provide chilled water to the wall mounted tabular installation and a separate chiller is used to provide chilled water at 16 C to the floor and ceiling mounted tabular installation. A dedicated outdoor air system is also coupled for dehumidification and ventilation in all three configurations. A conventional all-air system was simulated as a baseline to compare these configurations for assessing the energy saving potential.

  10. Taming Typhon: Advancing Climate Literacy by Coordinating Federal Earth System Science Education Investments Through the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karsten, J. L.; Niepold, F.; Wei, M.; Waple, A. M.

    2008-12-01

    consensus framework to define climate literacy; (2) a protocol and process for vetting, reviewing, and assuring scientific quality of educational materials related to climate change; (3) a Federal network of professionals who can share, access, and identify complementary educational materials; (4) a suite of evaluation tools to gauge effectiveness of interagency programs related to climate change education; (5) a clearinghouse or central repository of climate change education resources and expertise; and (6) professional development resources for educators seeking to improve their understanding of climate change and related Earth system science principles.

  11. A multiresolution method for climate system modeling: application of spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellations

    SciTech Connect

    Ringler, Todd; Ju, Lili; Gunzburger, Max

    2008-11-14

    During the next decade and beyond, climate system models will be challenged to resolve scales and processes that are far beyond their current scope. Each climate system component has its prototypical example of an unresolved process that may strongly influence the global climate system, ranging from eddy activity within ocean models, to ice streams within ice sheet models, to surface hydrological processes within land system models, to cloud processes within atmosphere models. These new demands will almost certainly result in the develop of multiresolution schemes that are able, at least regionally, to faithfully simulate these fine-scale processes. Spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellations (SCVTs) offer one potential path toward the development of a robust, multiresolution climate system model components. SCVTs allow for the generation of high quality Voronoi diagrams and Delaunay triangulations through the use of an intuitive, user-defined density function. In each of the examples provided, this method results in high-quality meshes where the quality measures are guaranteed to improve as the number of nodes is increased. Real-world examples are developed for the Greenland ice sheet and the North Atlantic ocean. Idealized examples are developed for ocean–ice shelf interaction and for regional atmospheric modeling. In addition to defining, developing, and exhibiting SCVTs, we pair this mesh generation technique with a previously developed finite-volume method. Our numerical example is based on the nonlinear, shallow water equations spanning the entire surface of the sphere. This example is used to elucidate both the potential benefits of this multiresolution method and the challenges ahead.

  12. Beyond climate-smart agriculture: toward safe operating spaces for global food systems

    SciTech Connect

    Gulledge, Jay; Neufeldt, Heinrich; Jahn, Margaret M; Lezaks, David P; Meinke, Jan H; Scholes, Robert J

    2013-01-01

    Agriculture is considered to be climate-smart when it contributes to increasing food security, adaptation and mitigation in a sustainable way. This new concept now dominates current discussions in agricultural development because of its capacity to unite the agendas of the agriculture, development and climate change communities under one brand. In this opinion piece authored by scientists from a variety of international agricultural and climate research communities, we argue that the concept needs to be evaluated critically because the relationship between the three dimensions is poorly understood, such that practically any improved agricultural practice can be considered climate-smart. This lack of clarity may have contributed to the broad appeal of the concept. From the understanding that we must hold ourselves accountable to demonstrably better meet human needs in the short and long term within foreseeable local and planetary limits, we develop a conceptualization of climate-smart agriculture as agriculture that can be shown to bring us closer to safe operating spaces for agricultural and food systems across spatial and temporal scales. Improvements in the management of agricultural systems that bring us significantly closer to safe operating spaces will require transformations in governance and use of our natural resources, underpinned by enabling political, social and economic conditions beyond incremental changes. Establishing scientifically credible indicators and metrics of long-term safe operating spaces in the context of a changing climate and growing social-ecological challenges is critical to creating the societal demand and political will required to motivate deep transformations. Answering questions on how the needed transformational change can be achieved will require actively setting and testing hypotheses to refine and characterize our concepts of safer spaces for social-ecological systems across scales. This effort will demand prioritizing key

  13. An automated system for access to derived climate indices in support of ecological impacts assessments and resource management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, J.; Morisette, J. T.; Talbert, C.; Blodgett, D. L.; Kunicki, T.

    2012-12-01

    A U.S. Geological Survey team is working with several providers to establish standard data services for the climate projection data they host. To meet the needs of climate adaptation science and landscape management communities, the team is establishing a set of climate index calculation algorithms that will consume data from various providers and provide directly useful data derivatives. Climate projections coming from various scenarios, modeling centers, and downscaling methods are increasing in number and size. Global change impact modeling and assessment, generally, requires inputs in the form of climate indices or values derived from raw climate projections. This requirement puts a large burden on a community not familiar with climate data formats, semantics, and processing techniques and requires storage capacity and computing resources out of the reach of most. In order to fully understand the implications of our best available climate projections, assessments must take into account an ensemble of climate projections and potentially a range of parameters for calculation of climate indices. These requirements around data access and processing are not unique from project to project, or even among projected climate data sets, pointing to the need for a reusable tool to generate climate indices. The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a pilot application and supporting web service framework that automates the generation of climate indices. The web service framework consists of standards-based data servers and a data integration broker. The resulting system allows data producers to publish and maintain ownership of their data and data consumers to access climate derivatives via a simple to use "data product ordering" workflow. Data access and processing is completed on enterprise "cloud" computing resources and only the relatively small, derived climate indices are delivered to the scientist or land manager. These services will assist the scientific and land

  14. The change of the Tibetan Plateau climate system and its impact on eastern Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Yaoming

    2015-04-01

    As the Third Pole of the earth, the Tibetan Plateau is an important water source of Asia. The 10 major rivers in China and abroad developed from the Tibet Plateau and provide living and production water for 1/3 of the world's population in East Asia and South Asia. The powerful dynamic and thermal effects of the Tibet Plateau significantly affect the East Asian climate pattern, the process of the Asian monsoon and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. Global change influences the processes of hydrosphere and cryosphere on the Tibetan Plateau, changes the ecosystem and environment within the plateau, and affects the socio-economic development and living condition of people in the region. In addition to that, through atmospheric circulation and water cycle, global change directly impacts water security and nature disaster protection in East Asia and surrounding nations. In order to study on the change of the Tibetan Plateau climate system and the mechanism of its impact on eastern Asia, one Chinese national research programme was launched in 2010. The research progresses of the programme in the past five years will be introduced. The research progresses are including four parts: the establishment an integrated network platform for the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding area "water - cryosphere -atmosphere -biology" observation, the study on the relation between the Tibet Plateau land surface-atmosphere interaction and atmospheric circulation anomalies, the study on the interactions among atmosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere on the Tibetan Plateau feeding back to climate change,and the study on the Tibetan Plateau climate system feeding back to East Asian regional climate change and its mechanism.

  15. Expert assessment of the resilience of drinking water and sanitation systems to climate-related hazards.

    PubMed

    Luh, Jeanne; Royster, Sarah; Sebastian, Daniel; Ojomo, Edema; Bartram, Jamie

    2017-08-15

    We conducted an expert assessment to obtain expert opinions on the relative global resilience of ten drinking water and five sanitation technologies to the following six climate-related hazards: drought, decreased inter-annual precipitation, flood, superstorm flood, wind damage, and saline intrusion. Resilience scores ranged from 1.7 to 9.9 out of a maximum resilience of 10, with high scores corresponding to high resilience. We find that for some climate-related hazards, such as drought, technologies demonstrated a large range in resilience, indicating that the choice of water and sanitation technologies is important for areas prone to drought. On the other hand, the range of resilience scores for superstorm flooding was much smaller, particularly for sanitation technologies, suggesting that the choice of technology is less of a determinant of functionality for superstorm flooding as compared to other climate-related hazards. For drinking water technologies, only treated piped utility-managed systems that use surface water had resilience scores >6.0 for all hazards, while protected dug wells were found to be one of the least resilient technologies, consistently scoring <5.0 for all hazards except wind damage. In general, sanitation technologies were found to have low to medium resilience, suggesting that sanitation systems need to be adapted to ensure functionality during and after climate-related hazards. The results of the study can be used to help communities decide which technologies are best suited for the climate-related challenges they face and help in future adaptation planning.

  16. The GLOBE Carbon Cycle Project: Using a systems approach to understand carbon and the Earth's climate system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silverberg, S. K.; Ollinger, S. V.; Martin, M. E.; Gengarelly, L. M.; Schloss, A. L.; Bourgeault, J. L.; Randolph, G.; Albrechtova, J.

    2009-12-01

    National Science Content Standards identify systems as an important unifying concept across the K-12 curriculum. While this standard exists, there is a recognized gap in the ability of students to use a systems thinking approach in their learning. In a similar vein, both popular media as well as some educational curricula move quickly through climate topics to carbon footprint analyses without ever addressing the nature of carbon or the carbon cycle. If students do not gain a concrete understanding of carbon’s role in climate and energy they will not be able to successfully tackle global problems and develop innovative solutions. By participating in the GLOBE Carbon Cycle project, students learn to use a systems thinking approach, while at the same time, gaining a foundation in the carbon cycle and it's relation to climate and energy. Here we present the GLOBE Carbon Cycle project and materials, which incorporate a diverse set of activities geared toward upper middle and high school students with a variety of learning styles. A global carbon cycle adventure story and game let students see the carbon cycle as a complete system, while introducing them to systems thinking concepts including reservoirs, fluxes and equilibrium. Classroom photosynthesis experiments and field measurements of schoolyard vegetation brings the global view to the local level. And the use of computer models at varying levels of complexity (effects on photosynthesis, biomass and carbon storage in global biomes, global carbon cycle) not only reinforces systems concepts and carbon content, but also introduces students to an important scientific tool necessary for understanding climate change.

  17. Ideas and perspectives: climate-relevant marine biologically driven mechanisms in Earth system models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hense, Inga; Stemmler, Irene; Sonntag, Sebastian

    2017-01-01

    The current generation of marine biogeochemical modules in Earth system models (ESMs) considers mainly the effect of marine biota on the carbon cycle. We propose to also implement other biologically driven mechanisms in ESMs so that more climate-relevant feedbacks are captured. We classify these mechanisms in three categories according to their functional role in the Earth system: (1) biogeochemical pumps, which affect the carbon cycling; (2) biological gas and particle shuttles, which affect the atmospheric composition; and (3) biogeophysical mechanisms, which affect the thermal, optical, and mechanical properties of the ocean. To resolve mechanisms from all three classes, we find it sufficient to include five functional groups: bulk phyto- and zooplankton, calcifiers, and coastal gas and surface mat producers. We strongly suggest to account for a larger mechanism diversity in ESMs in the future to improve the quality of climate projections.

  18. Building America Residential System Research Results: Achieving 30% Whole House Energy Savings Level in Cold Climates

    SciTech Connect

    Building Industry Research Alliance; Building Science Consortium; Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings; Florida Solar Energy Center; IBACOS; National Renewable Energy Laboratory

    2006-08-01

    The Building America program conducts the system research required to reduce risks associated with the design and construction of homes that use an average of 30% to 90% less total energy for all residential energy uses than the Building America Research Benchmark, including research on homes that will use zero net energy on annual basis. To measure the program's progress, annual research milestones have been established for five major climate regions in the United States. The system research activities required to reach each milestone take from 3 to 5 years to complete and include research in individual test houses, studies in pre-production prototypes, and research studies with lead builders that provide early examples that the specified energy savings level can be successfully achieved on a production basis. This report summarizes research results for the 30% energy savings level and demonstrates that lead builders can successfully provide 30% homes in Cold Climates on a cost-neutral basis.

  19. Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Data Products for Climate Research

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kato, Seiji; Loeb, Norman G.; Rutan, David A.; Rose, Fred G.

    2015-01-01

    NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project integrates CERES, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and geostationary satellite observations to provide top-of-atmosphere (TOA) irradiances derived from broadband radiance observations by CERES instruments. It also uses snow cover and sea ice extent retrieved from microwave instruments as well as thermodynamic variables from reanalysis. In addition, these variables are used for surface and atmospheric irradiance computations. The CERES project provides TOA, surface, and atmospheric irradiances in various spatial and temporal resolutions. These data sets are for climate research and evaluation of climate models. Long-term observations are required to understand how the Earth system responds to radiative forcing. A simple model is used to estimate the time to detect trends in TOA reflected shortwave and emitted longwave irradiances.

  20. Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harriman, Lindsey M.

    2014-01-01

    With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

  1. Textbooks of Doubt: Using Systemic Functional Analysis to Explore the Framing of Climate Change in Middle-School Science Textbooks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Román, Diego; Busch, K. C.

    2016-01-01

    Middle school students are learning about climate change in large part through textbooks used in their classes. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how the language employed in these materials frames this topic. To this end, we used systemic functional analysis to study the language of the chapters related to climate change in four sixth grade…

  2. Second California Assessment: Integrated climate change impacts assessment of natural and managed systems. Guest editorial

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Franco, G.; Cayan, D.R.; Moser, S.; Hanemann, M.; Jones, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006 the scientific community in California, in cooperation with resource managers, has been conducting periodic statewide studies about the potential impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems. This Special Issue is a compilation of revised papers that originate from the most recent assessment that concluded in 2009. As with the 2006 studies that influenced the passage of California's landmark Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), these papers have informed policy formulation at the state level, helping bring climate adaptation as a complementary measure to mitigation. We provide here a brief introduction to the papers included in this Special Issue focusing on how they are coordinated and support each other. We describe the common set of downscaled climate and sea-level rise scenarios used in this assessment that came from six different global climate models (GCMs) run under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: B1 (low emissions) and A2 (a medium-high emissions). Recommendations for future state assessments, some of which are being implemented in an on-going new assessment that will be completed in 2012, are offered. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  3. Collaborative Research: Robust Climate Projections and Stochastic Stability of Dynamical Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Ghil, Michael; McWilliams, James; Neelin, J. David; Zaliapin, Ilya; Chekroun, Mickael; Kondrashov, Dmitri; Simonnet, Eric

    2011-10-13

    The project was completed along the lines of the original proposal, with additional elements arising as new results were obtained. The originally proposed three thrusts were expanded to include an additional, fourth one. (i) The e ffects of stochastic perturbations on climate models have been examined at the fundamental level by using the theory of deterministic and random dynamical systems, in both nite and in nite dimensions. (ii) The theoretical results have been implemented first on a delay-diff erential equation (DDE) model of the El-Nino/Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. (iii) More detailed, physical aspects of model robustness have been considered, as proposed, within the stripped-down ICTP-AGCM (formerly SPEEDY) climate model. This aspect of the research has been complemented by both observational and intermediate-model aspects of mid-latitude and tropical climate. (iv) An additional thrust of the research relied on new and unexpected results of (i) and involved reduced-modeling strategies and associated prediction aspects have been tested within the team's empirical model reduction (EMR) framework. Finally, more detailed, physical aspects have been considered within the stripped-down SPEEDY climate model. The results of each of these four complementary e fforts are presented in the next four sections, organized by topic and by the team members concentrating on the topic under discussion.

  4. Local effects of global climate change on the urban drainage system of Hamburg.

    PubMed

    Krieger, Klaus; Kuchenbecker, Andreas; Hüffmeyer, Nina; Verworn, Hans-Reinhard

    2013-01-01

    The Hamburg Water Group owns and operates a sewer network with a total length of more than 5,700 km. There has been increasing attention paid to the possible impacts of predicted changes in precipitation patterns on the sewer network infrastructure. The primary objective of the work presented in this paper is an estimation of the hydraulic impacts of climate change on the Hamburg drainage system. As a first step, simulated rainfalls based on the regional climate model REMO were compared and validated with long-term precipitation measurements. In the second step, the hydraulic effects on the sewer network of Hamburg have been analyzed based on simulated long-term rainfall series for the period of 2000-2100. Simulation results show a significant increase in combined sewer overflows by 50% as well as an increase in surcharges of storm sewer manholes. However, there is still a substantial amount of uncertainty resulting from model uncertainty and unknown development of future greenhouse gas emissions. So far, there seems to be no sound basis for the implementation of an overall climate factor for sewer dimensioning for the Hamburg region. Nevertheless, possible effects of climate change should be taken into account within the planning process for major sewer extensions or modifications.

  5. Oscar: a portable prototype system for the study of climate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madonna, Fabio; Rosoldi, Marco; Amato, Francesco

    2015-04-01

    The study of the techniques for the exploitation of solar energy implies the knowledge of nature, ecosystem, biological factors and local climate. Clouds, fog, water vapor, and the presence of large concentrations of dust can significantly affect the way to exploit the solar energy. Therefore, a quantitative characterization of the impact of climate variability at the regional scale is needed to increase the efficiency and sustainability of the energy system. OSCAR (Observation System for Climate Application at Regional scale) project, funded in the frame of the PO FESR 2007-2013, aims at the design of a portable prototype system for the study of correlations among the trends of several Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) and the change in the amount of solar irradiance at the ground level. The final goal of this project is to provide a user-friendly low cost solution for the quantification of the impact of regional climate variability on the efficiency of solar cell and concentrators to improve the exploitation of natural sources. The prototype has been designed on the basis of historical measurements performed at CNR-IMAA Atmospheric Observatory (CIAO). Measurements from satellite and data from models have been also considered as ancillary to the study, above all, to fill in the gaps of existing datasets. In this work, the results outcome from the project activities will be presented. The results include: the design and implementation of the prototype system; the development of a methodology for the estimation of the impact of climate variability, mainly due to aerosol, cloud and water vapor, on the solar irradiance using the integration of the observations potentially provided by prototype; the study of correlation between the surface radiation, precipitation and aerosols transport. In particular, a statistical study will be presented to assess the impact of the atmosphere on the solar irradiance at the ground, quantifying the contribution due to aerosol and

  6. A Web-Based Climate Change Drought Decision Support System (C2D2S2)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aggett, G. R.

    2008-12-01

    Water managers are increasingly recognizing climate change as a significant issue and are requesting detailed information about potential hydrologic impacts suitable for inclusion in planning. For operational forecasts of streamflow, physically-based hydrologic models that can integrate critical parameters from climate change forecasts are required, as they can be used to directly relate altered temperature regimes to changes in snowpack, streamflow timing, and other effects. Available studies, however, are most often academic in nature and have the added limitation of being incompatible with agency specific water management models or the streamflow period of interest. Commissioning of a study focused on a specific system is generally prohibitively expensive for most municipalities and agencies. This study thus focused on the design and development of a prototype web-based Climate Change Drought Decision Support System (C2D2S2) to enable water managers at various operational- and time-scales to rapidly assess the impact of predicted climate change on natural flows at critical nodes along a river network. Results presented here highlight development of the system, specifically determination of the full range of elements required to build and support C2D2S2 including data, methods, tools and infrastructure necessary to power a full system capable of providing widespread and low-cost access to tools that can be used to generate scenarios of future streamflow over the internet. Results also stress the need for close interaction with, and feedback from stakeholders during development. This participation is critical to ensure potential users can use the tool effectively, and that data products are understandable in the context of operational water management decisions.

  7. Explosive Percolation Transition is Actually Continuous

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    da Costa, R. A.; Dorogovtsev, S. N.; Goltsev, A. V.; Mendes, J. F. F.

    2010-12-01

    Recently a discontinuous percolation transition was reported in a new “explosive percolation” problem for irreversible systems [D. Achlioptas, R. M. D’Souza, and J. Spencer, Science 323, 1453 (2009)SCIEAS0036-807510.1126/science.1167782] in striking contrast to ordinary percolation. We consider a representative model which shows that the explosive percolation transition is actually a continuous, second order phase transition though with a uniquely small critical exponent of the percolation cluster size. We describe the unusual scaling properties of this transition and find its critical exponents and dimensions.

  8. A comprehensive evaluation of high friction overlay systems on bridge decks in cold climate regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kostick, Robert D.

    In recent history the Minnesota Department of Transportation has looked to improve the safety of bridge decks by installing high friction overlays (HFO). A comprehensive study researched four different proprietary HFO systems placed on fourteen bridge decks throughout Minnesota. Research was split into three separate tasks: (1) laboratory testing of aggregate properties, (2) field observations and testing, and (3) a comprehensive analysis of crash data investigated crash rates on bridges with HFO systems. Field observations and testing revealed that the use of snowplows quickly abrades HFO systems. Abrasion, among other factors, causes a reduction in surface friction values, and reduces the life of HFO systems. Furthermore, improving crash rate trends cannot be directly correlated to the installation of HFO systems. Research concludes that HFO systems should not be used in Minnesota. Other cold climate transportation agencies should conduct research emulated after this study to assess HFO systems in their jurisdiction.

  9. Actualizing Flexible National Security Space Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-01-01

    single launch vehicle is a decision unique to small satellites that adds an extra dimension to the launch risk calculation. While bundling...following a launch failure. The ability to bundle multiple payloads on a single launch vehicle is a decision unique to small satellites that adds an extra ... dimension to the launch risk calculation. While bundling multiple small satellites on a single launch vehicle spreads the initial launch cost across

  10. Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of Climatic Shifts on the Production and Processing of Native and Traditional Crops in the Bolivian Andes.

    PubMed

    Keleman Saxena, Alder; Cadima Fuentes, Ximena; Gonzales Herbas, Rhimer; Humphries, Debbie L

    2016-01-01

    Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data were collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes (a) the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia and (b) the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp.), oca (Oxalis tuberosa), tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis), papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus), and charke (llama or sheep jerky). Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, and the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Furthermore, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. Although these findings are drawn from a single case study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, "indigenous food systems." Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat

  11. Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of Climatic Shifts on the Production and Processing of Native and Traditional Crops in the Bolivian Andes

    PubMed Central

    Keleman Saxena, Alder; Cadima Fuentes, Ximena; Gonzales Herbas, Rhimer; Humphries, Debbie L.

    2016-01-01

    Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data were collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes (a) the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia and (b) the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp.), oca (Oxalis tuberosa), tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis), papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus), and charke (llama or sheep jerky). Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, and the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Furthermore, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. Although these findings are drawn from a single case study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, “indigenous food systems.” Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate

  12. Observing Human-induced Linkages between Urbanization and Earth's Climate System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

    2004-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world s population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters atmospheric composition; impacts components of the water cycle; and modifies the carbon cycle and ecosystems. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. The goal of the 2003 AGU Union session Human-induced climate variations on urban areas: From observations to modeling was to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results on observing and modeling components of the urban environment with the intent of sampling our current stand and discussing future direction on this topic. Herein, a summary and discussion of the observations component of the session are presented.

  13. Mitigation of climate change impacts by hydrologic and cultural components of traditional acequia irrigation systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernald, A.

    2009-12-01

    In northern New Mexico and other physiographically similar semi-arid settings worldwide, traditional irrigation systems divert snowmelt runoff from streams for distribution to valley croplands. This field hydrology and culture study is taking place in three New Mexico watersheds. Ongoing measurements show that seepage to groundwater and subsequent stream recharge from subsurface return flows effectively reduce spring runoff peaks and augment summer baseflow. This retransmission function of traditional acequia irrigated valleys is important for downstream users, particularly in the face of changing climate with projected earlier snowmelt and increased rain. Preliminary evaluations of the community irrigation management structure show high adaptability to climate variation. Water is partitioned to individual users based on water availability, with more water for all in wet years and less for all in dry years. Irrigation water seepage has additional benefits: water quality improvement, wildlife habitat creation, riparian vegetation support, and aesthetic enhancement. Community cohesion and longevity are supported by hydrologic and cultural aspects of the irrigation systems. Lessons learned from these systems promise a window into techniques for sustainable management of linked watersheds and river valleys under future climate change scenarios.

  14. Climate and Energy-Water-Land System Interactions Technical Report to the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Skaggs, Richard; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Frumhoff, Peter; Lowry, Thomas; Middleton, Richard; Pate, Ron; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Arnold, J. G.; Averyt, Kristen; Janetos, Anthony C.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Rice, Jennie S.; Rose, Steven K.

    2012-03-01

    This report provides a framework to characterize and understand the important elements of climate and energy-water-land (EWL) system interactions. It identifies many of the important issues, discusses our understanding of those issues, and presents a long-term research program research needs to address the priority scientific challenges and gaps in our understanding. Much of the discussion is organized around two discrete case studies with the broad themes of (1) extreme events and (2) regional intercomparisons. These case studies help demonstrate unique ways in which energy-water-land interactions can occur and be influenced by climate.

  15. Use of a crop climate modeling system to evaluate climate change adaptation practices: maize yield in East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, N. J.; Alagarswamy, G.; Andresen, J.; Olson, J.; Thornton, P.

    2013-12-01

    Sub Saharan African agriculture is dominated by small-scale farmers and is heavily depend on growing season precipitation. Recent studies indicate that anthropogenic- induced warming including the Indian Ocean sea surface significantly influences precipitation in East Africa. East Africa is a useful region to assess impacts of future climate because of its large rainfall gradient, large percentage of its area being sub-humid or semi-arid, complex climatology and topography, varied soils, and because the population is particularly vulnerable to shifts in climate. Agronomic adaptation practices most commonly being considered include include a shift to short season, drought resistant maize varieties, better management practices especially fertilizer use, and irrigation. The effectiveness of these practices with climate change had not previously been tested. We used the WorldClim data set to represent current climate and compared the current and future climate scenarios of 4 Global Climate Models (GCMs) including a wetter (CCSM) and drier (HadCM3) GCM downscaled to 6 km resolution. The climate data was then used in the process-based CERES maize crop model to simulate the current period (representing 1960- 1990) and change in future maize production (from 2000 to 2050s). The effectiveness of agronomic practices, including short duration maize variety, fertilizer use and irrigation, to reduce projected future yield losses due to climate change were simulated. The GCMs project an increase in maximum temperature during growing season ranging from 1.5 to 3°C. Changes in precipitation were dependent on the GCM, with high variability across different topographies land cover types and elevations. Projected warmer temperatures in the future scenarios accelerated plant development and led to a reduction in growing season length and yields even where moisture was sufficient Maize yield changes in 2050 relative to the historical period were highly varied, in excess of +/- 500 kg

  16. Hell and High Water: Diminished Septic System Performance in Coastal Regions Due to Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Cooper, Jennifer A.; Loomis, George W.; Amador, Jose A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change may affect the ability of soil-based onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) to treat wastewater in coastal regions of the Northeastern United States. Higher temperatures and water tables can affect treatment by reducing the volume of unsaturated soil and oxygen available for treatment, which may result in greater transport of pathogens, nutrients, and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) to groundwater, jeopardizing public and aquatic ecosystem health. The soil treatment area (STA) of an OWTS removes contaminants as wastewater percolates through the soil. Conventional STAs receive wastewater from the septic tank, with infiltration occurring deeper in the soil profile. In contrast, shallow narrow STAs receive pre-treated wastewater that infiltrates higher in the soil profile, which may make them more resilient to climate change. We used intact soil mesocosms to quantify the water quality functions of a conventional and two types of shallow narrow STAs under present climate (PC; 20°C) and climate change (CC; 25°C, 30 cm elevation in water table). Significantly greater removal of BOD5 was observed under CC for all STA types. Phosphorus removal decreased significantly from 75% (PC) to 66% (CC) in the conventional STA, and from 100% to 71–72% in shallow narrow STAs. No fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) were released under PC, whereas up to 17 and 20 CFU 100 mL-1 were released in conventional and shallow narrow STAs, respectively, under CC. Total N removal increased from 14% (PC) to 19% (CC) in the conventional STA, but decreased in shallow narrow STAs, from 6–7% to less than 3.0%. Differences in removal of FCB and total N were not significant. Leaching of N in excess of inputs was also observed in shallow narrow STAs under CC. Our results indicate that climate change can affect contaminant removal from wastewater, with effects dependent on the contaminant and STA type. PMID:27583363

  17. Dependence of the radiative forcing of the climate system on fossil fuel type

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nunez, L. I.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change mitigation strategies are greatly directed towards the reduction of CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion to limit warming to 2º C in this century. For example, the Clean Power Plan aims to reduce CO2 emissions from the power sector by 32% of 2005 levels by 2030 by increasing power plant efficiency but also by switching from coal-fired power plants to natural gas-fired power plants. It is important to understand the impact of such fuel switching on climate change. While all fossil fuels emit CO2, they also emit other pollutants with varying effects on climate, health and agriculture. First, The emission of CO2 per joule of energy produced varies significantly between coal, oil and natural gas. Second, the complexity that the co-emitted pollutants add to the perturbations in the climate system necessitates the detangling of radiative forcing for each type of fossil fuel. The historical (1850-2011) net radiative forcing of climate as a function of fuel type (coal, oil, natural gas and biofuel) is reconstructed. The results reveal the significant dependence of the CO2 and the non-CO2 forcing on fuel type. The CO2 forcing per joule of energy is largest for coal. Radiative forcing from the co-emitted pollutants (black carbon, methane, nitrogen oxides, organic carbon, sulfate aerosols) changes the global mean CO2 forcing attributed to coal and oil significantly. For natural gas, the CO2-only radiative forcing from gas is increased by about 60% when the co-emitted pollutants are included.

  18. Low-frequency variability in the arctic atmosphere, sea ice, and upper-ocean climate system

    SciTech Connect

    Bitz, C.M.; Battisti, D.S.; Moritz, R.E.; Beesley, J.A.

    1996-02-01

    The low-frequency natural variability of the arctic climate system is modeled using a single-column, energy balance model of the atmosphere, sea ice, and upper-ocean system. Variability in the system is induced by forcing with realistic, random perturbations in the atmospheric energy transport and cloudiness. The model predicts that the volume of perennial sea ice varies predominantly on decadal timescales, while other arctic climate variables vary mostly on intraannual and interannual timescales. The variance of the simulated sea ice volume is most sensitive to perturbations of the atmospheric forcing in late spring, at the onset of melt. The variance of the simulated sea ice volume is most sensitive to perturbations of the atmospheric forcing in the late spring, at the onset of melt. The variance of sea ice volume increases with the mean sea ice thickness and with the number of layers resolved in the sea ice model. This suggests that much of the simulated variance develops when the surface temperature decouples from the sea ice interior during the late spring, when melting snow abruptly exposes the sea ice surface and decreases the surface albedo. The minimum model requirements to simulate the natural variability in the arctic climate are identified. The implications of the low-frequency, natural variability in sea ice volume for detecting a climate change are discussed. Finally, calculations suggest that the variability in the thermodynamic forcing of the polar cap could lead to a freshening in North Atlantic that is comparable to the freshening associated with the Great Salinity Anomaly. 28 refs., 14 figs., 5 tabs.

  19. Land Use and Climate Impacts on Fluvial Systems (LUCIFS): A PAGES - Focus 4 (PHAROS) research activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dearing, John; Hoffmann, Thomas

    2010-05-01

    LUCIFS is a global research program which is concerned with understanding past interactions between climate, human activity and fluvial systems. Its focus is on evaluating the geomorphic impact of humans on landscapes, with a strong emphasis on geomorphological and sedimentological perspectives on mid- to long-term man-landscape interactions. Of particular relevance are aspects of sediment redistribution systems such as non-linear behaviour, the role of system configuration, scale effects, and emergent properties Over the last decade the LUCIFS program has been investigating both contemporary and long-term river response to global change with the principal aims of i)quantifying land use and climate change impacts of river-borne fluxes of water, sediment, C, N and P; ii) identification of key controls on these fluxes at the catchment scale; and iii) identification of the feedback on both human society and biogeochemical cycles of long-term changes in the fluxes of these materials The major scientific tasks of the LUCIFS-program are: • synthesising results of regional case studies • identify regional gaps and encouraging new case studies • addressing research gaps and formulating new research questions • organising workshops and conferences In this paper we present the LUCIFS program within the new PAGES structure. LUCIFS is located in the Focus 4 (PHAROS) dealing with how a knowledge of human-climate-ecosystem interactions in the past can help inform understanding and management today. In conjunction with the other working groups HITE (Human Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystems), LIMPACS (Human Impacts on Lake Ecosystems) and IHOPE (Integrated History of People on Earth) PHAROS aims to compare regional-scale reconstructions of environmental and climatic processes using natural archives, documentary and instrumental data, with evidence of past human activity obtained from historical, paleoecological and archaeological records.

  20. Methane leakage from evolving petroleum systems: Masses, rates and inferences for climate feedback

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berbesi, L. A.; di Primio, R.; Anka, Z.; Horsfield, B.; Wilkes, H.

    2014-02-01

    The immense mass of organic carbon contained in sedimentary systems, currently estimated at 1.56×1010 Tg (Des Marais et al., 1992), bears the potential of affecting global climate through the release of thermally or biologically generated methane to the atmosphere. Here we investigate the potential of naturally-occurring gas leakage, controlled by petroleum generation and degradation as a forcing mechanism for climate at geologic time scales. We addressed the potential methane contributions to the atmosphere during the evolution of petroleum systems in two different, petroliferous geological settings: the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) and the Central Graben area of the North Sea. Besides 3D numerical simulation, different types of mass balance and theoretical approaches were applied depending on the data available and the processes taking place in each basin. In the case of the WCSB, we estimate maximum thermogenic methane leakage rates in the order of 10-2-10-3 Tg/yr, and maximum biogenic methane generation rates of 10-2 Tg/yr. In the case of the Central Graben, maximum estimates for thermogenic methane leakage are in the order in 10-3 Tg/yr. Extrapolation of our results to a global scale suggests that, at least as a single process, thermal gas generation in hydrocarbon kitchen areas would not be able to influence climate, although it may contribute to a positive feedback. Conversely, only the sudden release of subsurface methane accumulations, formed over geologic timescales, can possibly allow for petroleum systems to exert an effect on climate.

  1. Tectonic and climatic controls on fan systems: The Kohrud mountain belt, Central Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Stuart J.; Arzani, Nasser; Allen, Mark B.

    2014-04-01

    Late Pleistocene to Holocene fans of the Kohrud mountain belt (Central Iran) illustrate the problems of differentiating tectonic and climatic drivers for the sedimentary signatures of alluvial fan successions. It is widely recognised that tectonic processes create the topography that causes fan development. The existence and position of fans along the Kohrud mountain belt, NE of Esfahan, are controlled by faulting along the Qom-Zefreh fault system and associated fault zones. These faults display moderate amounts of historical and instrumental seismicity, and so may be considered to be tectonically active. However, fluvial systems on the fans are currently incising in response to low Gavkhoni playa lake levels since the mid-Holocene, producing incised gullies on the fans up to 30 m deep. These gullies expose an interdigitation of lake deposits (dominated by fine-grained silts and clays with evaporites) and coarse gravels that characterise the alluvial fan sediments. The boundaries of each facies are mostly sharp, with fan sediments superimposed on lake sediments with little to no evidence of reworking. In turn, anhydrite-glauberite, mirabilite and halite crusts drape over the gravels, recording a rapid return to still water, shallow ephemeral saline lake sedimentation. Neither transition can be explained by adjustment of the hinterland drainage system after tectonic uplift. The potential influence in Central Iran of enhanced monsoons, the northward drift of the Intertopical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and Mediterranean climates for the early Holocene (~ 6-10 ka) point to episodic rainfall (during winter months) associated with discrete high magnitude floods on the fan surfaces. The fan sediments were deposited under the general influence of a highstand playa lake whose level was fluctuating in response to climate. This study demonstrates that although tectonism can induce fan development, it is the sensitive balance between aridity and humidity resulting from changes in

  2. SEA Semester Undergraduates Research the Ocean's Role in Climate Systems in the Pacific Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer, A. W.; Becker, M. K.; Grabb, K. C.

    2014-12-01

    Sea Education Association (SEA)'s fully accredited Oceans & Climate SEA Semester program provides upper-level science undergraduates a unique opportunity to explore the ocean's role in the global climate system as they conduct real-world oceanographic research and gain first-hand understanding of and appreciation for the collaborative nature of the scientific research process. Oceans & Climate is an interdisciplinary science and policy semester in which students also explore public policy perspectives to learn how scientific knowledge is used in making climate-related policy. Working first at SEA's shore campus, students collaborate with SEA faculty and other researchers in the local Woods Hole scientific community to design and develop an original research project to be completed at sea. Students then participate as full, working members of the scientific team and sailing crew aboard the 134-foot brigantine SSV Robert C. Seamans; they conduct extensive oceanographic sampling, manage shipboard operations, and complete and present the independent research project they designed onshore. Oceans & Climate SEA Semester Cruise S-250 sailed from San Diego to Tahiti on a 7-week, >4000nm voyage last fall (November-December 2013). This remote open-ocean cruise track traversed subtropical and equatorial regions of the Pacific particularly well suited for a diverse range of climate-focused studies. Furthermore, as SEA has regularly collected scientific data along similar Pacific cruise tracks for more than a decade, students often undertake projects that require time-series analyses. 18 undergraduates from 15 different colleges and universities participated in the S-250 program. Two examples of the many projects completed by S-250 students include a study of the possible relationship between tropical cyclone intensification, driven by warm sea surface temperatures, and the presence of barrier layers; and a study of nutrient cycling in the eastern Pacific, focusing on primary

  3. Predicting the Hydrologic Response of the Columbia River System to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chegwidden, O.; Hamman, J.; Xiao, M.; Ishottama, F.; Lee, S. Y.; Stumbaugh, M. R.; Mote, P.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Nijssen, B.

    2014-12-01

    The Columbia River, located in the northwestern United States with headwaters in Canada (Pacific Northwest), is intensely managed for hydropower generation, irrigation, flood control, ecosystem services (particularly salmonids), navigation, and recreation. Effects of anthropogenic climate change already manifest themselves in the Pacific Northwest through reduced winter snow accumulation at lower elevations and earlier spring melt. As the climate warms, the Columbia River, whose flow regime is heavily dependent on seasonal snow melt, is likely to experience significant changes in the timing of its seasonal hydrograph and possibly in total flow volume. We report on a new study co-funded by the Bonneville Power Administration to update and enhance an existing climate change streamflow data set developed by the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group in 2009-2010. Our new study is based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 5 (CMIP5). In contrast to earlier studies, we are using a suite of three hydrologic models, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, the Unified Land Model and the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, each implemented at 1/16 degree (~6 km) over the Pacific Northwest. In addition, we will use multiple statistical downscaling methods based on the output from a subset of 10 CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs). The use of multiple hydrologic models, downscaling methods and GCMs is motivated by the need to assess the impact of methodological choices in the modeling process on projected changes in Columbia River flows. We discuss the implementation of the three hydrologic models as well as our development of a glacier model for VIC, which is intended to better represent the effects of climate change on streamflows from the Columbia River headwaters region. Finally, we report on our application of a new auto-calibration method that uses an inverse routing scheme to develop

  4. Reducing the Carbon Footprint of Commercial Refrigeration Systems Using Life Cycle Climate Performance Analysis: From System Design to Refrigerant Options

    SciTech Connect

    Fricke, Brian A; Abdelaziz, Omar; Vineyard, Edward Allan

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, Life Cycle Climate Performance (LCCP) analysis is used to estimate lifetime direct and indirect carbon dioxide equivalent gas emissions of various refrigerant options and commercial refrigeration system designs, including the multiplex DX system with various hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) refrigerants, the HFC/R744 cascade system incorporating a medium-temperature R744 secondary loop, and the transcritical R744 booster system. The results of the LCCP analysis are presented, including the direct and indirect carbon dioxide equivalent emissions for each refrigeration system and refrigerant option. Based on the results of the LCCP analysis, recommendations are given for the selection of low GWP replacement refrigerants for use in existing commercial refrigeration systems, as well as for the selection of commercial refrigeration system designs with low carbon dioxide equivalent emissions, suitable for new installations.

  5. Life cycle assessment of biochar systems: estimating the energetic, economic, and climate change potential.

    PubMed

    Roberts, Kelli G; Gloy, Brent A; Joseph, Stephen; Scott, Norman R; Lehmann, Johannes

    2010-01-15

    Biomass pyrolysis with biochar returned to soil is a possible strategy for climate change mitigation and reducing fossil fuel consumption. Pyrolysis with biochar applied to soils results in four coproducts: long-term carbon (C) sequestration from stable C in the biochar, renewable energy generation, biochar as a soil amendment, and biomass waste management. Life cycle assessment was used to estimate the energy and climate change impacts and the economics of biochar systems. The feedstocks analyzed represent agricultural residues (corn stover), yard waste, and switchgrass energy crops. The net energy of the system is greatest with switchgrass (4899 MJ t(-1) dry feedstock). The net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for both stover and yard waste are negative, at -864 and -885 kg CO(2) equivalent (CO(2)e) emissions reductions per tonne dry feedstock, respectively. Of these total reductions, 62-66% are realized from C sequestration in the biochar. The switchgrass biochar-pyrolysis system can be a net GHG emitter (+36 kg CO(2)e t(-1) dry feedstock), depending on the accounting method for indirect land-use change impacts. The economic viability of the pyrolysis-biochar system is largely dependent on the costs of feedstock production, pyrolysis, and the value of C offsets. Biomass sources that have a need for waste management such as yard waste have the highest potential for economic profitability (+$69 t(-1) dry feedstock when CO(2)e emission reductions are valued at $80 t(-1) CO(2)e). The transportation distance for feedstock creates a significant hurdle to the economic profitability of biochar-pyrolysis systems. Biochar may at present only deliver climate change mitigation benefits and be financially viable as a distributed system using waste biomass.

  6. Multisensor System for Isotemporal Measurements to Assess Indoor Climatic Conditions in Poultry Farms

    PubMed Central

    Bustamante, Eliseo; Guijarro, Enrique; García-Diego, Fernando-Juan; Balasch, Sebastián; Hospitaler, Antonio; Torres, Antonio G.

    2012-01-01

    The rearing of poultry for meat production (broilers) is an agricultural food industry with high relevance to the economy and development of some countries. Periodic episodes of extreme climatic conditions during the summer season can cause high mortality among birds, resulting in economic losses. In this context, ventilation systems within poultry houses play a critical role to ensure appropriate indoor climatic conditions. The objective of this study was to develop a multisensor system to evaluate the design of the ventilation system in broiler houses. A measurement system equipped with three types of sensors: air velocity, temperature and differential pressure was designed and built. The system consisted in a laptop, a data acquisition card, a multiplexor module and a set of 24 air temperature, 24 air velocity and two differential pressure sensors. The system was able to acquire up to a maximum of 128 signals simultaneously at 5 second intervals. The multisensor system was calibrated under laboratory conditions and it was then tested in field tests. Field tests were conducted in a commercial broiler farm under four different pressure and ventilation scenarios in two sections within the building. The calibration curves obtained under laboratory conditions showed similar regression coefficients among temperature, air velocity and pressure sensors and a high goodness fit (R2 = 0.99) with the reference. Under field test conditions, the multisensor system showed a high number of input signals from different locations with minimum internal delay in acquiring signals. The variation among air velocity sensors was not significant. The developed multisensor system was able to integrate calibrated sensors of temperature, air velocity and differential pressure and operated succesfully under different conditions in a mechanically-ventilated broiler farm. This system can be used to obtain quasi-instantaneous fields of the air velocity and temperature, as well as differential

  7. Rapid climatic signal propagation from source to sink in a southern California sediment-routing system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Covault, J.A.; Romans, B.W.; Fildani, A.; McGann, M.; Graham, S.A.

    2010-01-01

    Terrestrial source areas are linked to deep-sea basins by sediment-routing systems, which only recently have been studied with a holistic approach focused on terrestrial and submarine components and their interactions. Here we compare an extensive piston-core and radiocarbon-age data set from offshore southern California to contemporaneous Holocene climate proxies in order to test the hypothesis that climatic signals are rapidly propagated from source to sink in a spatially restricted sediment-routing system that includes the Santa Ana River drainage basin and the Newport deep-sea depositional system. Sediment cores demonstrate that variability in rates of Holocene deep-sea turbidite deposition is related to complex ocean-atmosphere interactions, including enhanced magnitude and frequency of the North American monsoon and El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation cycles, which increased precipitation and fluvial discharge in southern California. This relationship is evident because, unlike many sediment-routing systems, the Newport submarine canyon-and-channel system was consistently linked tothe Santa Ana River,which maintained sediment delivery even during Holocene marine transgression and highstand. Results of this study demonstrate the efficiency of sediment transport and delivery through a spatially restricted, consistently linked routing system and the potential utility of deep-sea turbidite depositional trends as paleoclimate proxies in such settings. ?? 2010 by The University of Chicago.

  8. Computer Controlled Portable Greenhouse Climate Control System for Enhanced Energy Efficiency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Datsenko, Anthony; Myer, Steve; Petties, Albert; Hustek, Ryan; Thompson, Mark

    2010-04-01

    This paper discusses a student project at Kettering University focusing on the design and construction of an energy efficient greenhouse climate control system. In order to maintain acceptable temperatures and stabilize temperature fluctuations in a portable plastic greenhouse economically, a computer controlled climate control system was developed to capture and store thermal energy incident on the structure during daylight periods and release the stored thermal energy during dark periods. The thermal storage mass for the greenhouse system consisted of a water filled base unit. The heat exchanger consisted of a system of PVC tubing. The control system used a programmable LabView computer interface to meet functional specifications that minimized temperature fluctuations and recorded data during operation. The greenhouse was a portable sized unit with a 5' x 5' footprint. Control input sensors were temperature, water level, and humidity sensors and output control devices were fan actuating relays and water fill solenoid valves. A Graphical User Interface was developed to monitor the system, set control parameters, and to provide programmable data recording times and intervals.

  9. Climate Change Impacts on Stream Temperatures in the Columbia River System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yearsley, J. R.; Crozier, L.

    2014-12-01

    The Columbia River system, a drainage basin of 668,000 sq. km that includes the Columbia and Snake River rivers, supports a large population of anadromous, cold-water fishes. 13 species of these fishes are listed under the Endangered Species Act and are vulnerable to impacts of climate change. Bioenergetics models for these species have been developed by the federal agencies that operate the Federal Columbia River Power System. These models simulate the impacts on anadromous fishes as they move through the power system both upstream as adults and downstream as juveniles. Water temperature simulations required for input to the bioenergetics models were made for two different segments of the Columbia River system; one being the portions from the Canadian border to Bonneville Dam and the Snake River from Brownlee Dam in Idaho to its confluence and the other, the Salmon River basin in Idaho. Simulations were performed for the period 1928-1998 with the semi-Lagrangian stream temperature model, RBM, for existing conditions and for a two 2040 climate scenarios, a cool, dry condition (ECHO_g model) and a warm, wet condition (MIROC_3.2 model). Natural flows were simulated with the variable infiltration capacity model, VIC, and modified for Columbia River project operations using HYDSIM, a hydro system regulation model that simulates month-to-month operation of the Pacific Northwest hydropower system.

  10. Building a Large Scale Climate Data System in Support of HPC Environment

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Feiyi; Harney, John F; Shipman, Galen M

    2011-01-01

    The Earth System Grid Federation (ESG) is a large scale, multi-institutional, interdisciplinary project that aims to provide climate scientists and impact policy makers worldwide a web-based and client-based platform to publish, disseminate, compare and analyze ever increasing climate related data. This paper describes our practical experiences on the design, development and operation of such a system. In particular, we focus on the support of the data lifecycle from a high performance computing (HPC) perspective that is critical to the end-to-end scientific discovery process. We discuss three subjects that interconnect the consumer and producer of scientific datasets: (1) the motivations, complexities and solutions of deep storage access and sharing in a tightly controlled environment; (2) the importance of scalable and flexible data publication/population; and (3) high performance indexing and search of data with geospatial properties. These perceived corner issues collectively contributed to the overall user experience and proved to be as important as any other architectural design considerations. Although the requirements and challenges are rooted and discussed from a climate science domain context, we believe the architectural problems, ideas and solutions discussed in this paper are generally useful and applicable in a larger scope.

  11. Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Wiberg, David; Leduc, Sylvain; Riahi, Keywan

    2016-04-01

    Hydropower and thermoelectric power together contribute 98% of the world’s electricity generation at present. These power-generating technologies both strongly depend on water availability, and water temperature for cooling also plays a critical role for thermoelectric power generation. Climate change and resulting changes in water resources will therefore affect power generation while energy demands continue to increase with economic development and a growing world population. Here we present a global assessment of the vulnerability of the world’s current hydropower and thermoelectric power-generation system to changing climate and water resources, and test adaptation options for sustainable water-energy security during the twenty-first century. Using a coupled hydrological-electricity modelling framework with data on 24,515 hydropower and 1,427 thermoelectric power plants, we show reductions in usable capacity for 61-74% of the hydropower plants and 81-86% of the thermoelectric power plants worldwide for 2040-2069. However, adaptation options such as increased plant efficiencies, replacement of cooling system types and fuel switches are effective alternatives to reduce the assessed vulnerability to changing climate and freshwater resources. Transitions in the electricity sector with a stronger focus on adaptation, in addition to mitigation, are thus highly recommended to sustain water-energy security in the coming decades.

  12. Using GENIE to study a tipping point in the climate system.

    PubMed

    Lenton, Timothy M; Myerscough, Richard J; Marsh, Robert; Livina, Valerie N; Price, Andrew R; Cox, Simon J; Genie Team

    2009-03-13

    We have used the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling framework to study the archetypal example of a tipping point in the climate system; a threshold for the collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). eScience has been invaluable in this work and we explain how we have made it work for us. Two stable states of the THC have been found to coexist, under the same boundary conditions, in a hierarchy of models. The climate forcing required to collapse the THC and the reversibility or irreversibility of such a collapse depends on uncertain model parameters. Automated methods have been used to assimilate observational data to constrain the pertinent parameters. Anthropogenic climate forcing leads to a robust weakening of the THC and increases the probability of crossing a THC tipping point, but some ensemble members collapse readily, whereas others are extremely resistant. Hence, we test general methods that have been developed to directly diagnose, from time-series data, the proximity of a 'tipping element', such as the THC to a bifurcation point. In a three-dimensional ocean-atmosphere model exhibiting THC hysteresis, despite high variability in the THC driven by the dynamical atmosphere, some early warning of an approaching tipping point appears possible.

  13. A systems-based approach to transform climate education in the U.S. Affiliated Pacific islands (USAPI)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sussman, A.; Fletcher, C. H.; Sachs, J. P.

    2011-12-01

    The USAPI has a population of about 1,800,000 people spread across 4.9 million square miles of the Pacific Ocean. The Pacific Islands are characterized by a multitude of indigenous cultures and languages. English is the common language of instruction in all jurisdictions, but is not the language spoken at home for most students outside of Hawai'i. Many USAPI students live considerably below the poverty line. The Pacific Island region is projected to experience some of the most profound negative impacts considerably sooner than other regions. Funded by the National Science Foundation, the Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and honor indigenous cultures. Students and citizens within the region will have the knowledge and skills to advance their and our understanding of climate change, and to adapt to its impacts. PCEP has developed a regional network, tools, and an emerging plan to systemically transform K-14 climate education in the USAPI. More than 50 organizations and networks have joined the partnership. These partners include all of the region's state departments of education, major universities, and community colleges, and a wide range of local partners, particularly conservation organizations. One of PCEP's major tools is general, multidisciplinary K-14 climate science education framework that organizes major underlying concepts and skills within appropriate grade-span progressions. This framework is based largely upon prior national science and climate literacy work and the National Research Council's recent document "A Framework for K-12 Science Education: Practices, Crosscutting Concepts, and Core Ideas." The PCEP climate education framework has an Earth System Science foundation that is directly applicable in all locations, and it also has orientations that are

  14. Revisiting the climate impacts of cool roofs around the globe using an Earth system model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Jiachen; Zhang, Kai; Liu, Junfeng; Ban-Weiss, George

    2016-08-01

    Solar reflective ‘cool roofs’ absorb less sunlight than traditional dark roofs, reducing solar heat gain, and decreasing the amount of heat transferred to the atmosphere. Widespread adoption of cool roofs could therefore reduce temperatures in urban areas, partially mitigating the urban heat island effect, and contributing to reversing the local impacts of global climate change. The impacts of cool roofs on global climate remain debated by past research and are uncertain. Using a sophisticated Earth system model, the impacts of cool roofs on climate are investigated at urban, continental, and global scales. We find that global adoption of cool roofs in urban areas reduces urban heat islands everywhere, with an annual- and global-mean decrease from 1.6 to 1.2 K. Decreases are statistically significant, except for some areas in Africa and Mexico where urban fraction is low, and some high-latitude areas during wintertime. Analysis of the surface and TOA energy budget in urban regions at continental-scale shows cool roofs causing increases in solar radiation leaving the Earth-atmosphere system in most regions around the globe, though the presence of aerosols and clouds are found to partially offset increases in upward radiation. Aerosols dampen cool roof-induced increases in upward solar radiation, ranging from 4% in the United States to 18% in more polluted China. Adoption of cool roofs also causes statistically significant reductions in surface air temperatures in urbanized regions of China (-0.11 ± 0.10 K) and the United States (-0.14 ± 0.12 K); India and Europe show statistically insignificant changes. Though past research has disagreed on whether widespread adoption of cool roofs would cool or warm global climate, these studies have lacked analysis on the statistical significance of global temperature changes. The research presented here indicates that adoption of cool roofs around the globe would lead to statistically insignificant reductions in global mean

  15. Sub-biome variability in the biophysical influence of forests on climate using the Community Earth System Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahlswede, B.; Thomas, R. Q.

    2014-12-01

    Forests influence local climate through biophysical processes. It is well established that boreal forests have a warming effect by reducing albedo and tropical forests have a cooling effect due to increased evapotranspiration. However the influence of temperate forests on climate is less certain. Previous model experiments have shown the average effect of temperate forests as a whole to be a weak warming effect. However, some non-model studies that examine these effects at the sub-biome level show a latitudinal gradient of effects presumably due to differences in climate; while other studies show variation in biophysical effects due to forest type that is independent of latitude. Using the Community Earth System Model, we explore spatial variation in the direction and magnitude of the climate response to simulated deforestation in temperate forests. Our analysis focuses on the relative importance of pre-deforestation temperature, pre-deforestation precipitation, and the percentage of a grid cell occupied by needle-leaf evergreen trees as factors explaining how deforestation influences climate. We use results from deforestation simulations where forests are subdivided into temperature and precipitation clusters to develop a statistical model that predicts the change in regional air temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity based on climate.