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Sample records for actual population size

  1. Why Do Women Have More Children Than They Want? Understanding Differences in Women’s Ideal and Actual Family Size in a Natural Fertility Population

    PubMed Central

    McAllister, Lisa; Gurven, Michael; Kaplan, Hillard; Stieglitz, Jonathan

    2013-01-01

    Objectives We develop and test a conceptual model of factors influencing women’s ideal family size (IFS) in a natural fertility population, the Tsimane of Bolivia. The model posits affects of socioecology, reproductive history, maternal condition, and men’s IFS. We test three hypotheses for why women may exceed their IFS despite experiencing socioeconomic development: (H1) limited autonomy; (H2) improved maternal condition; and (H3) low returns on investments in embodied capital. Methods Women’s reproductive histories and prospective fertility data were collected from 2002 to 2008 (n = 305 women). Semistructured interviews were conducted with Tsimane women to study the perceived value of parental investment (n = 76). Multiple regression, t-tests, and analysis of variance (ANOVA) are used to test model predictions. Results Women’s IFS is predicted by their socioecology, reproductive history, maternal condition, and husband’s IFS. Hypotheses 2 and 3 are supported. Couples residing near town have smaller IFS (women = 3.75 ± 1.64; men = 3.87 ± 2.64) and less variance in IFS. However, the degree fertility exceeds IFS is inversely correlated with distance to town (Partial r = −0.189, df = 156, P = 0.018). Women living near town have greater maternal condition but 64% value traditional skills over formal schooling and 88% believe living in town is unfeasible. Conclusions While reduced IFS is evident with socioeconomic development, fertility decline may not immediately follow. When perceived benefits of investment in novel forms of embodied capital are low, and somatic wealth and large kin networks persist as important components of fitness, fertility may remain high and increase if maternal condition improves. PMID:22987773

  2. Effective population size of korean populations.

    PubMed

    Park, Leeyoung

    2014-12-01

    Recently, new methods have been developed for estimating the current and recent changes in effective population sizes. Based on the methods, the effective population sizes of Korean populations were estimated using data from the Korean Association Resource (KARE) project. The overall changes in the population sizes of the total populations were similar to CHB (Han Chinese in Beijing, China) and JPT (Japanese in Tokyo, Japan) of the HapMap project. There were no differences in past changes in population sizes with a comparison between an urban area and a rural area. Age-dependent current and recent effective population sizes represent the modern history of Korean populations, including the effects of World War II, the Korean War, and urbanization. The oldest age group showed that the population growth of Koreans had already been substantial at least since the end of the 19th century. PMID:25705160

  3. Effective sizes for subdivided populations.

    PubMed

    Chesser, R K; Rhodes, O E; Sugg, D W; Schnabel, A

    1993-12-01

    Many derivations of effective population sizes have been suggested in the literature; however, few account for the breeding structure and none can readily be expanded to subdivided populations. Breeding structures influence gene correlations through their effects on the number of breeding individuals of each sex, the mean number of progeny per female, and the variance in the number of progeny produced by males and females. Additionally, hierarchical structuring in a population is determined by the number of breeding groups and the migration rates of males and females among such groups. This study derives analytical solutions for effective sizes that can be applied to subdivided populations. Parameters that encapsulate breeding structure and subdivision are utilized to derive the traditional inbreeding and variance effective sizes. Also, it is shown that effective sizes can be determined for any hierarchical level of population structure for which gene correlations can accrue. Derivations of effective sizes for the accumulation of gene correlations within breeding groups (coancestral effective size) and among breeding groups (intergroup effective size) are given. The results converge to traditional, single population measures when similar assumptions are applied. In particular, inbreeding and intergroup effective sizes are shown to be special cases of the coancestral effective size, and intergroup and variance effective sizes will be equal if the population census remains constant. Instantaneous solutions for effective sizes, at any time after gene correlation begins to accrue, are given in terms of traditional F statistics or transition equations. All effective sizes are shown to converge upon a common asymptotic value when breeding tactics and migration rates are constant. The asymptotic effective size can be expressed in terms of the fixation indices and the number of breeding groups; however, the rate of approach to the asymptote is dependent upon dispersal

  4. Effective sizes for subdivided populations

    SciTech Connect

    Chesser, R.K. Univ. of Georgia, Athens, GA ); Rhodes, O.E. Jr.; Sugg, D.W.; Schnabel, A. )

    1993-12-01

    Many derivations of effective population sizes have been suggested in the literature; however, few account for the breeding structure and none can readily be expanded to subdivided populations. Breeding structures influence gene correlations through their effects on the number of breeding individuals of each sex, the mean number of progeny per female, and the variance in the number of progeny produced by males and females. Additionally, hierarchical structuring in a population is determined by the number of breeding groups and the migration rates of males and females among such groups. This study derives analytical solutions for effective sizes that can be applied to subdivided populations. Parameters that encapsulate breeding structure and subdivision are utilized to derive the traditional inbreeding and variance effective sizes. Also, it is shown that effective sizes can be determined for any hierarchical level of population structure for which gene correlations can accrue. Derivations of effective sizes for the accumulation of gene correlations within breeding groups (coancestral effective size) and among breeding groups (intergroup effective size) are given. The results converge to traditional single population measures when similar assumptions are applied. In particular, inbreeding and intergroup effective sizes are shown to be special cases of the coancestral effective size, and intergroup and variance effective sizes will be equal if the population census remains constant. Instantaneous solutions for effective size, at any time after gene correlation begins to accrue, are given in terms of traditional F statistics or transition equations. All effective sizes are shown to converge upon a common asymptotic value when breeding tactics and migration rates are constant. The asymptotic effective size can be expressed in terms of the fixation indices and the number of breeding groups; however, the rate of approach to the asymptote is dependent upon dispersal rates.

  5. Effective population size and population subdivision in demographically structured populations.

    PubMed Central

    Laporte, Valérie; Charlesworth, Brian

    2002-01-01

    A fast-timescale approximation is applied to the coalescent process in a single population, which is demographically structured by sex and/or age. This provides a general expression for the probability that a pair of alleles sampled from the population coalesce in the previous time interval. The effective population size is defined as the reciprocal of twice the product of generation time and the coalescence probability. Biologically explicit formulas for effective population size with discrete generations and separate sexes are derived for a variety of different modes of inheritance. The method is also applied to a nuclear gene in a population of partially self-fertilizing hermaphrodites. The effects of population subdivision on a demographically structured population are analyzed, using a matrix of net rates of movement of genes between different local populations. This involves weighting the migration probabilities of individuals of a given age/sex class by the contribution of this class to the leading left eigenvector of the matrix describing the movements of genes between age/sex classes. The effects of sex-specific migration and nonrandom distributions of offspring number on levels of genetic variability and among-population differentiation are described for different modes of inheritance in an island model. Data on DNA sequence variability in human and plant populations are discussed in the light of the results. PMID:12242257

  6. Small effective population size in the long-toed salamander.

    PubMed

    Funk, W C; Tallmon, D A; Allendorf, F W

    1999-10-01

    The effective population sizes (Ne) of six populations of the long-toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum) from Montana and Idaho, USA were estimated from allozyme data from samples collected in 1978, 1996 and 1997 using the temporal allele frequency method. Five of the six estimates ranged from 23 to 207 (mean = 123 +/- 79); one estimate was indistinguishable from infinity. In order to infer the actual Ne of salamander populations, we compared the frequency distribution of our observed Ne estimates with distributions obtained from simulated populations of known Ne. Our observed Ne estimate distribution was consistent with distributions from simulated populations with Ne values of 10, 25, and 50, suggesting an actual Ne for each of the six salamander populations of less than 100. This Ne estimate agrees with most other Ne estimates for amphibians. We conclude by discussing the conservation implications of small Ne values in amphibians in the context of increasing isolation of populations due to habitat fragmentation. PMID:10583827

  7. Effective Population Sizes with Multiple Paternity

    PubMed Central

    Sugg, D. W.; Chesser, R. K.

    1994-01-01

    While the concept of effective population size is of obvious applicability to many questions in population genetics and conservation biology, its utility has suffered due to a lack of agreement among its various formulations. Often, mathematical formulations for effective sizes apply restrictive assumptions that limit their applicability. Herein, expressions for effective sizes of populations that account for mating tactics, biases in sex ratios, and differential dispersal rates (among other parameters) are developed. Of primary interest is the influence of multiple paternity on the maintenance of genetic variation in a population. In addition to the standard inbreeding and variance effective sizes, intragroup (coancestral) and intergroup effective sizes also are developed. Expressions for effective sizes are developed for the beginning of nonrandom gene exchanges (initial effective sizes), the transition of gene correlations (instantaneous effective sizes), and the steady-state (asymptotic effective size). Results indicate that systems of mating that incorporate more than one male mate per female increase all effective sizes above those expected from polygyny and monogamy. Instantaneous and asymptotic sizes can be expressed relative to the fixation indices. The parameters presented herein can be utilized in models of effective sizes for the study of evolutionary biology and conservation genetics. PMID:7982568

  8. Obesity Bias in Children: The Role of Actual and Perceived Body Size

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kornilaki, Ekaterina N.

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine how children perceive their body size and whether their actual or perceived body size can explain their anti-fat views. Four hundred and fourteen 5-6, 7-8 and 9-10-year-old children were read short vignettes depicting two characters, one possessing a positive and the other a negative quality. Following each…

  9. Determining the Population Size of Pond Phytoplankton.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hummer, Paul J.

    1980-01-01

    Discusses methods for determining the population size of pond phytoplankton, including water sampling techniques, laboratory analysis of samples, and additional studies worthy of investigation in class or as individual projects. (CS)

  10. Detecting past changes of effective population size

    PubMed Central

    Nikolic, Natacha; Chevalet, Claude

    2014-01-01

    Understanding and predicting population abundance is a major challenge confronting scientists. Several genetic models have been developed using microsatellite markers to estimate the present and ancestral effective population sizes. However, to get an overview on the evolution of population requires that past fluctuation of population size be traceable. To address the question, we developed a new model estimating the past changes of effective population size from microsatellite by resolving coalescence theory and using approximate likelihoods in a Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach. The efficiency of the model and its sensitivity to gene flow and to assumptions on the mutational process were checked using simulated data and analysis. The model was found especially useful to provide evidence of transient changes of population size in the past. The times at which some past demographic events cannot be detected because they are too ancient and the risk that gene flow may suggest the false detection of a bottleneck are discussed considering the distribution of coalescence times. The method was applied on real data sets from several Atlantic salmon populations. The method called VarEff (Variation of Effective size) was implemented in the R package VarEff and is made available at https://qgsp.jouy.inra.fr and at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/VarEff. PMID:25067949

  11. Family size and effective population size in a hatchery stock of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simon, R.C.; McIntyre, J.D.; Hemmingsen, A.R.

    1986-01-01

    Means and variances of family size measured in five year-classes of wire-tagged coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) were linearly related. Population effective size was calculated by using estimated means and variances of family size in a 25-yr data set. Although numbers of age 3 adults returning to the hatchery appeared to be large enough to avoid inbreeding problems (the 25-yr mean exceeded 4500), the numbers actually contributing to the hatchery production may be too low. Several strategies are proposed to correct the problem perceived. Argument is given to support the contention that the problem of effective size is fairly general and is not confined to the present study population.

  12. Estimating avian population size using Bowden's estimator

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Diefenbach, D.R.

    2009-01-01

    Avian researchers often uniquely mark birds, and multiple estimators could be used to estimate population size using individually identified birds. However, most estimators of population size require that all sightings of marked birds be uniquely identified, and many assume homogeneous detection probabilities. Bowden's estimator can incorporate sightings of marked birds that are not uniquely identified and relax assumptions required of other estimators. I used computer simulation to evaluate the performance of Bowden's estimator for situations likely to be encountered in bird studies. When the assumptions of the estimator were met, abundance and variance estimates and confidence-interval coverage were accurate. However, precision was poor for small population sizes (N ??? 50) unless a large percentage of the population was marked (>75%) and multiple (???8) sighting surveys were conducted. If additional birds are marked after sighting surveys begin, it is important to initially mark a large proportion of the population (pm ??? 0.5 if N ??? 100 or pm > 0.1 if N ??? 250) and minimize sightings in which birds are not uniquely identified; otherwise, most population estimates will be overestimated by >10%. Bowden's estimator can be useful for avian studies because birds can be resighted multiple times during a single survey, not all sightings of marked birds have to uniquely identify individuals, detection probabilities among birds can vary, and the complete study area does not have to be surveyed. I provide computer code for use with pilot data to design mark-resight surveys to meet desired precision for abundance estimates. ?? 2009 by The American Ornithologists' Union. All rights reserved.

  13. Efficient and Unbiased Estimation of Population Size.

    PubMed

    Cruz, Marcos; Gómez, Domingo; Cruz-Orive, Luis M

    2015-01-01

    Population sizing from still aerial pictures is of wide applicability in ecological and social sciences. The problem is long standing because current automatic detection and counting algorithms are known to fail in most cases, and exhaustive manual counting is tedious, slow, difficult to verify and unfeasible for large populations. An alternative is to multiply population density with some reference area but, unfortunately, sampling details, handling of edge effects, etc., are seldom described. For the first time we address the problem using principles of geometric sampling. These principles are old and solid, but largely unknown outside the areas of three dimensional microscopy and stereology. Here we adapt them to estimate the size of any population of individuals lying on an essentially planar area, e.g. people, animals, trees on a savanna, etc. The proposed design is unbiased irrespective of population size, pattern, perspective artifacts, etc. The implementation is very simple-it is based on the random superimposition of coarse quadrat grids. Also, an objective error assessment is often lacking. For the latter purpose the quadrat counts are often assumed to be independent. We demonstrate that this approach can perform very poorly, and we propose (and check via Monte Carlo resampling) a new theoretical error prediction formula. As far as efficiency, counting about 50 (100) individuals in 20 quadrats, can yield relative standard errors of about 8% (5%) in typical cases. This fact effectively breaks the barrier hitherto imposed by the current lack of automatic face detection algorithms, because semiautomatic sampling and manual counting becomes an attractive option. PMID:26535587

  14. Efficient and Unbiased Estimation of Population Size

    PubMed Central

    Cruz, Marcos; Gómez, Domingo; Cruz-Orive, Luis M.

    2015-01-01

    Population sizing from still aerial pictures is of wide applicability in ecological and social sciences. The problem is long standing because current automatic detection and counting algorithms are known to fail in most cases, and exhaustive manual counting is tedious, slow, difficult to verify and unfeasible for large populations. An alternative is to multiply population density with some reference area but, unfortunately, sampling details, handling of edge effects, etc., are seldom described. For the first time we address the problem using principles of geometric sampling. These principles are old and solid, but largely unknown outside the areas of three dimensional microscopy and stereology. Here we adapt them to estimate the size of any population of individuals lying on an essentially planar area, e.g. people, animals, trees on a savanna, etc. The proposed design is unbiased irrespective of population size, pattern, perspective artifacts, etc. The implementation is very simple—it is based on the random superimposition of coarse quadrat grids. Also, an objective error assessment is often lacking. For the latter purpose the quadrat counts are often assumed to be independent. We demonstrate that this approach can perform very poorly, and we propose (and check via Monte Carlo resampling) a new theoretical error prediction formula. As far as efficiency, counting about 50 (100) individuals in 20 quadrats, can yield relative standard errors of about 8% (5%) in typical cases. This fact effectively breaks the barrier hitherto imposed by the current lack of automatic face detection algorithms, because semiautomatic sampling and manual counting becomes an attractive option. PMID:26535587

  15. Wind farm production cost: Optimum turbine size and farm capacity in the actual market

    SciTech Connect

    Laali, A.R.; Meyer, J.L.; Bellot, C.; Louche, A.

    1996-12-31

    Several studies are undertaken in R&D Division of EDF in collaboration with ERASME association in order to have a good knowledge of the wind energy production costs. These studies are performed in the framework of a wind energy monitoring project and concern the influence of a few parameters like wind farm capacity, turbine size and wind speed on production costs, through an analysis of the actual market trend. Some 50 manufacturers and 140 different kind of wind turbines are considered for this study. The minimum production cost is situated at 800/900 kW wind turbine rated power. This point will probably move to more important powers in the future. This study is valid only for average conditions and some special parameters like particular climate conditions or lack of infrastructure for a special site the could modify the results shown on the curves. The variety of wind turbines (rated power as a function of rotor diameter, height and specific rated power) in the actual market is analyzed. A brief analysis of the market trend is also performed. 7 refs., 7 figs.

  16. 24 CFR 81.18 - Affordability-Income level definitions-family size not known (actual or prospective tenants).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... definitions-family size not known (actual or prospective tenants). 81.18 Section 81.18 Housing and Urban... (actual or prospective tenants). In determining whether a rental unit is affordable to very-low, low-, or..., and affordability determined as follows: (a) For moderate-income, the income of prospective...

  17. Harvest-induced evolution and effective population size.

    PubMed

    Kuparinen, Anna; Hutchings, Jeffrey A; Waples, Robin S

    2016-06-01

    Much has been written about fishery-induced evolution (FIE) in exploited species, but relatively little attention has been paid to the consequences for one of the most important parameters in evolutionary biology-effective population size (N e). We use a combination of simulations of Atlantic cod populations experiencing harvest, artificial manipulation of cod life tables, and analytical methods to explore how adding harvest to natural mortality affects N e, census size (N), and the ratio N e/N. We show that harvest-mediated reductions in N e are due entirely to reductions in recruitment, because increasing adult mortality actually increases the N e/N ratio. This means that proportional reductions in abundance caused by harvest represent an upper limit to the proportional reductions in N e, and that in some cases N e can even increase with increased harvest. This result is a quite general consequence of increased adult mortality and does not depend on harvest selectivity or FIE, although both of these influence the results in a quantitative way. In scenarios that allowed evolution, N e recovered quickly after harvest ended and remained higher than in the preharvest population for well over a century, which indicates that evolution can help provide a long-term buffer against loss of genetic variability. PMID:27247617

  18. Effective Size of Populations under Selection

    PubMed Central

    Santiago, E.; Caballero, A.

    1995-01-01

    Equations to approximate the effective size (N(e)) of populations under continued selection are obtained that include the possibility of partial full-sib mating and other systems such as assortative mating. The general equation for the case of equal number of sexes and constant number of breeding individuals (N) is N(e) = 4N/[2(1 - α(I)) + (S(k)(2) + 4Q(2)C(2)) (1 + α(I) + 2α(O))], where S(k)(2) is the variance of family size due to sampling without selection, C(2) is the variance of selective advantages among families (the squared coefficient of variation of the expected number of offspring per family), α(I) is the deviation from Hardy-Weinberg proportions, α(O) is the correlation between genes of male and female parents, and Q(2) is the term accounting for the cumulative effect of selection on an inherited trait. This is obtained as Q = 2/[2 - G(1 + r)], where G is the remaining proportion of genetic variance in selected individuals and r is the correlation of the expected selective values of male and female parents. The method is also extended to the general case of different numbers of male and female parents. The predictive value of the formulae is tested under a model of truncation selection with the infinitesimal model of gene effects, where C(2) and G are a function of the selection intensity, the heritability and the intraclass correlation of sibs. Under random mating r = α(I) = -1/(N - 1) and α(O) = 0. Under partial full-sib mating with an average proportion β of full-sib matings per generation, r & β and α(O) & α(I) & β/ (4 - 3β). The prediction equation is compared to other approximations based on the long-term contributions of ancestors to descendants. Finally, based on the approach followed, a system of mating (compensatory mating) is proposed to reduce rates of inbreeding without loss of response in selection programs in which selected individuals from the largest families are mated to those from the smallest families. PMID:7713405

  19. 12 CFR 1282.18 - Affordability-Income level definitions-family size not known (actual or prospective tenants).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Affordability-Income level definitions-family size not known (actual or prospective tenants). 1282.18 Section 1282.18 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY HOUSING GOALS AND MISSION ENTERPRISE HOUSING GOALS AND MISSION Housing Goals § 1282.18 Affordability—Income...

  20. 21 CFR 312.315 - Intermediate-size patient populations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Intermediate-size patient populations. 312.315... for Treatment Use § 312.315 Intermediate-size patient populations. Under this section, FDA may permit an investigational drug to be used for the treatment of a patient population smaller than...

  1. 21 CFR 312.315 - Intermediate-size patient populations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Intermediate-size patient populations. 312.315... for Treatment Use § 312.315 Intermediate-size patient populations. Under this section, FDA may permit an investigational drug to be used for the treatment of a patient population smaller than...

  2. 21 CFR 312.315 - Intermediate-size patient populations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Intermediate-size patient populations. 312.315... for Treatment Use § 312.315 Intermediate-size patient populations. Under this section, FDA may permit an investigational drug to be used for the treatment of a patient population smaller than...

  3. 21 CFR 312.315 - Intermediate-size patient populations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Intermediate-size patient populations. 312.315... for Treatment Use § 312.315 Intermediate-size patient populations. Under this section, FDA may permit an investigational drug to be used for the treatment of a patient population smaller than...

  4. Inbreeding effective population size and parentage analysis without parents.

    PubMed

    Waples, Robin S; Waples, Ryan K

    2011-03-01

    An important use of genetic parentage analysis is the ability to directly calculate the number of offspring produced by each parent (k(i)) and hence effective population size, N(e). But what if parental genotypes are not available? In theory, given enough markers, it should be possible to reconstruct parental genotypes based entirely on a sample of progeny, and if so the vector of parental k(i) values. However, this would provide information only about parents that actually contributed offspring to the sample. How would ignoring the 'null' parents (those that produced no offspring) affect an estimate of N(e)? The surprising answer is that null parents have no effect at all. We show that: (i) The standard formula for inbreeding N(e) can be rewritten so that it is a function only of sample size and ∑(k(2)(i)); it is not necessary to know the total number of parents (N). This same relationship does not hold for variance N(e). (ii) This novel formula provides an unbiased estimate of N(e) even if only a subset of progeny is available, provided the parental contributions are accurately determined, in which case precision is also high compared to other single-sample estimators of N(e). (iii) It is not necessary to actually reconstruct parental genotypes; from a matrix of pairwise relationships (as can be estimated by some current software programs), it is possible to construct the vector of k(i) values and estimate N(e). The new method based on parentage analysis without parents (PwoP) can potentially be useful as a single-sample estimator of contemporary N(e), provided that either (i) relationships can be accurately determined, or (ii) ∑(k(2)(i)) can be estimated directly. PMID:21429172

  5. Population Size, Structural Differentiation, and Human Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sadalla, Edward K.

    1978-01-01

    Reviews evidence which indicates that the sheer size of an urban center has important social and psychological consequences. Available literature suggests that size combined with structural differentiation is related to psychological and behavioral variables such as anomymity, deindividuation, deviance, personality development, and…

  6. Sample-size requirements for evaluating population size structure

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vokoun, J.C.; Rabeni, C.F.; Stanovick, J.S.

    2001-01-01

    A method with an accompanying computer program is described to estimate the number of individuals needed to construct a sample length-frequency with a given accuracy and precision. First, a reference length-frequency assumed to be accurate for a particular sampling gear and collection strategy was constructed. Bootstrap procedures created length-frequencies with increasing sample size that were randomly chosen from the reference data and then were compared with the reference length-frequency by calculating the mean squared difference. Outputs from two species collected with different gears and an artificial even length-frequency are used to describe the characteristics of the method. The relations between the number of individuals used to construct a length-frequency and the similarity to the reference length-frequency followed a negative exponential distribution and showed the importance of using 300-400 individuals whenever possible.

  7. Comparing population size estimators for plethodontid salamanders

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bailey, L.L.; Simons, T.R.; Pollock, K.H.

    2004-01-01

    Despite concern over amphibian declines, few studies estimate absolute abundances because of logistic and economic constraints and previously poor estimator performance. Two estimation approaches recommended for amphibian studies are mark-recapture and depletion (or removal) sampling. We compared abundance estimation via various mark-recapture and depletion methods, using data from a three-year study of terrestrial salamanders in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Our results indicate that short-term closed-population, robust design, and depletion methods estimate surface population of salamanders (i.e., those near the surface and available for capture during a given sampling occasion). In longer duration studies, temporary emigration violates assumptions of both open- and closed-population mark-recapture estimation models. However, if the temporary emigration is completely random, these models should yield unbiased estimates of the total population (superpopulation) of salamanders in the sampled area. We recommend using Pollock's robust design in mark-recapture studies because of its flexibility to incorporate variation in capture probabilities and to estimate temporary emigration probabilities.

  8. Repeated Habitat Disturbances by Fire Decrease Local Effective Population Size.

    PubMed

    Schrey, Aaron W; Ragsdale, Alexandria K; McCoy, Earl D; Mushinsky, Henry R

    2016-07-01

    Effective population size is a fundamental parameter in population genetics, and factors that alter effective population size will shape the genetic characteristics of populations. Habitat disturbance may have a large effect on genetic characteristics of populations by influencing immigration and gene flow, particularly in fragmented habitats. We used the Florida Sand Skink (Plestiodon reynoldsi) to investigate the effect of fire-based habitat disturbances on the effective population size in the highly threatened, severely fragmented, and fire dependent Florida scrub habitat. We screened 7 microsatellite loci in 604 individuals collected from 12 locations at Archbold Biological Station. Archbold Biological Station has an active fire management plan and detailed records of fires dating to 1967. Our objective was to determine how the timing, number, and intervals between fires affect effective population size, focusing on multiple fires in the same location. Effective population size was higher in areas that had not been burned for more than 10 years and decreased with number of fires and shorter time between fires. A similar pattern was observed in abundance: increasing abundance with time-since-fire and decreasing abundance with number of fires. The ratio of effective population size to census size was higher at sites with more recent fires and tended to decrease with time-since-last-fire. These results suggest that habitat disturbances, such as fire, may have a large effect in the genetic characteristics of local populations and that Florida Sand Skinks are well adapted to the natural fire dynamics required to maintain Florida scrub. PMID:26976940

  9. Estimating the size of polyps during actual endoscopy procedures using a spatio-temporal characterization.

    PubMed

    Martínez, Fabio; Ruano, Josué; Gómez, Martín; Romero, Eduardo

    2015-07-01

    Colorectal cancer usually appears in polyps developed from the mucosa. Carcinoma is frequently found in those polyps larger than 10mm and therefore only this kind of polyps is sent for pathology examination. In consequence, accurate estimation of a polyp size determines the surveillance interval after polypectomy. The follow up consists in a periodic colonoscopy whose frequency depends on the estimation of the size polyp. Typically, this polyp measure is achieved by examining the lesion with a calibrated endoscopy tool. However, measurement is very challenging because it must be performed during a procedure subjected to a complex mix of noise sources, namely anatomical variability, drastic illumination changes and abrupt camera movements. This work introduces a semi-automatic method that estimates a polyp size by propagating an initial manual delineation in a single frame to the whole video sequence using a spatio-temporal characterization of the lesion, during a routine endoscopic examination. The proposed approach achieved a Dice Score of 0.7 in real endoscopy video-sequences, when comparing with an expert. In addition, the method obtained a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.87mm in videos artificially captured in a cylindric structure with spheres of known size that simulated the polyps. Finally, in real endoscopy sequences, the diameter estimation was compared with measures obtained by a group of four experts with similar experience, obtaining a RMSE of 4.7mm for a set of polyps measuring from 5 to 20mm. An ANOVA test performed for the five groups of measurements (four experts and the method) showed no significant differences (p<0.01). PMID:25670148

  10. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  11. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

    PubMed

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems. PMID:26382443

  12. Population size, pollination and phenotypic trait selection in Phyteuma spicatum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weber, Anne; Kolb, Annette

    2013-02-01

    Plants in small populations may receive fewer visits, smaller pollen loads or pollen of poorer quality and suffer from reduced reproductive success compared to plants in larger populations. Consequently, pollen limitation of plants in small populations has been suggested to result in the evolution of reduced reliance on pollinators or the enhancement of traits that attract pollinators. The main aim of this study was to experimentally quantify the strength of pollinator-mediated selection on floral display size and flowering phenology in populations of varying size, using the self-incompatible, perennial herb Phyteuma spicatum as study species. We conducted supplementary hand pollinations in six populations (ranging in size between ca. 20-3000 flowering individuals) over two consecutive years and assessed selection gradients (i.e., trait-fitness relationships) in open- and hand-pollinated plants. Our results show that some populations are pollen limited in some years, but, contrary to our expectation, the degree of pollen limitation was not significantly related to population size. We found phenotypic selection for increased inflorescence size (in most populations and in both years), but we obtained no or no strong evidence that selection was pollinator-mediated or that the strength of selection was related to population size. This may have been the result of low statistical power, an inherent problem of studies examining effects of population size that require the inclusion of populations with only few individuals. In addition, given that selection appeared to be spatially and temporally variable, abiotic or biotic factors other than pollinators may have contributed to selection on inflorescence size.

  13. Bayesian Nonparametric Inference of Population Size Changes from Sequential Genealogies.

    PubMed

    Palacios, Julia A; Wakeley, John; Ramachandran, Sohini

    2015-09-01

    Sophisticated inferential tools coupled with the coalescent model have recently emerged for estimating past population sizes from genomic data. Recent methods that model recombination require small sample sizes, make constraining assumptions about population size changes, and do not report measures of uncertainty for estimates. Here, we develop a Gaussian process-based Bayesian nonparametric method coupled with a sequentially Markov coalescent model that allows accurate inference of population sizes over time from a set of genealogies. In contrast to current methods, our approach considers a broad class of recombination events, including those that do not change local genealogies. We show that our method outperforms recent likelihood-based methods that rely on discretization of the parameter space. We illustrate the application of our method to multiple demographic histories, including population bottlenecks and exponential growth. In simulation, our Bayesian approach produces point estimates four times more accurate than maximum-likelihood estimation (based on the sum of absolute differences between the truth and the estimated values). Further, our method's credible intervals for population size as a function of time cover 90% of true values across multiple demographic scenarios, enabling formal hypothesis testing about population size differences over time. Using genealogies estimated with ARGweaver, we apply our method to European and Yoruban samples from the 1000 Genomes Project and confirm key known aspects of population size history over the past 150,000 years. PMID:26224734

  14. Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McDonald, T.L.; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2001-01-01

    One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

  15. On population size estimators in the Poisson mixture model.

    PubMed

    Mao, Chang Xuan; Yang, Nan; Zhong, Jinhua

    2013-09-01

    Estimating population sizes via capture-recapture experiments has enormous applications. The Poisson mixture model can be adopted for those applications with a single list in which individuals appear one or more times. We compare several nonparametric estimators, including the Chao estimator, the Zelterman estimator, two jackknife estimators and the bootstrap estimator. The target parameter of the Chao estimator is a lower bound of the population size. Those of the other four estimators are not lower bounds, and they may produce lower confidence limits for the population size with poor coverage probabilities. A simulation study is reported and two examples are investigated. PMID:23865502

  16. Rate of language evolution is affected by population size.

    PubMed

    Bromham, Lindell; Hua, Xia; Fitzpatrick, Thomas G; Greenhill, Simon J

    2015-02-17

    The effect of population size on patterns and rates of language evolution is controversial. Do languages with larger speaker populations change faster due to a greater capacity for innovation, or do smaller populations change faster due to more efficient diffusion of innovations? Do smaller populations suffer greater loss of language elements through founder effects or drift, or do languages with more speakers lose features due to a process of simplification? Revealing the influence of population size on the tempo and mode of language evolution not only will clarify underlying mechanisms of language change but also has practical implications for the way that language data are used to reconstruct the history of human cultures. Here, we provide, to our knowledge, the first empirical, statistically robust test of the influence of population size on rates of language evolution, controlling for the evolutionary history of the populations and formally comparing the fit of different models of language evolution. We compare rates of gain and loss of cognate words for basic vocabulary in Polynesian languages, an ideal test case with a well-defined history. We demonstrate that larger populations have higher rates of gain of new words whereas smaller populations have higher rates of word loss. These results show that demographic factors can influence rates of language evolution and that rates of gain and loss are affected differently. These findings are strikingly consistent with general predictions of evolutionary models. PMID:25646448

  17. Rate of language evolution is affected by population size

    PubMed Central

    Bromham, Lindell; Hua, Xia; Fitzpatrick, Thomas G.; Greenhill, Simon J.

    2015-01-01

    The effect of population size on patterns and rates of language evolution is controversial. Do languages with larger speaker populations change faster due to a greater capacity for innovation, or do smaller populations change faster due to more efficient diffusion of innovations? Do smaller populations suffer greater loss of language elements through founder effects or drift, or do languages with more speakers lose features due to a process of simplification? Revealing the influence of population size on the tempo and mode of language evolution not only will clarify underlying mechanisms of language change but also has practical implications for the way that language data are used to reconstruct the history of human cultures. Here, we provide, to our knowledge, the first empirical, statistically robust test of the influence of population size on rates of language evolution, controlling for the evolutionary history of the populations and formally comparing the fit of different models of language evolution. We compare rates of gain and loss of cognate words for basic vocabulary in Polynesian languages, an ideal test case with a well-defined history. We demonstrate that larger populations have higher rates of gain of new words whereas smaller populations have higher rates of word loss. These results show that demographic factors can influence rates of language evolution and that rates of gain and loss are affected differently. These findings are strikingly consistent with general predictions of evolutionary models. PMID:25646448

  18. When bigger is not better: intraspecific competition for pollination increases with population size in invasive milkweeds.

    PubMed

    Ward, Megan; Johnson, Steven D; Zalucki, Myron P

    2013-04-01

    One of the essential requirements for an introduced plant species to become invasive is an ability to reproduce outside the native range, particularly when initial populations are small. If a reproductive Allee effect is operating, plants in small populations will have reduced reproductive success relative to plants in larger populations. Alternatively, if plants in small populations experience less competition for pollination than those in large populations, they may actually have higher levels of reproductive success than plants in large populations. To resolve this uncertainty, we investigated how the per capita fecundity of plants was affected by population size in three invasive milkweed species. Field surveys of seed production in natural populations of different sizes but similar densities were conducted for three pollinator-dependent invasive species, namely Asclepias curassavica, Gomphocarpus fruticosus and G. physocarpus. Additionally, supplemental hand-pollinations were performed in small and large populations in order to determine whether reproductive output was limited by pollinator activity in these populations. Reproductive Allee effects were not detected in any of the study species. Instead, plants in small populations exhibited remarkably high levels of reproductive output compared to those in large populations. Increased fruit production following supplemental hand-pollinations suggested that the lower reproductive output of naturally pollinated plants in large populations is a consequence of pollen limitation rather than limitation due to abiotic resources. This is consistent with increased intraspecific competition for pollination amongst plants in large populations. It is likely that the invasion of these milkweed species in Australia has been enhanced because plants in small founding populations experience less intraspecific competition for pollinators than those in large populations, and thus have the ability to produce copious amounts of

  19. Novel estimates of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) population size and adult survival based on Wolbachia releases.

    PubMed

    Ritchie, Scott A; Montgomery, Brian L; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2013-05-01

    The size of Aedes aegypti (L.) mosquito populations and adult survival rates have proven difficult to estimate because of a lack of consistent quantitative measures to equate sampling methods, such as adult trapping, to actual population size. However, such estimates are critical for devising control methods and for modeling the transmission of dengue and other infectious agents carried by this species. Here we take advantage of recent releases of Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti coupled with the results of ongoing monitoring to estimate the size of adult Ae. aegypti populations around Cairns in far north Queensland, Australia. Based on the association between released adults infected with Wolbachia and data from Biogents Sentinel traps, we show that data from two locations are consistent with population estimates of approximately 5-10 females per house and daily survival rates of 0.7-0.9 for the released Wolbachia-infected females. Moreover, we estimate that networks of Biogents Sentinel traps at a density of one per 15 houses capture around 5-10% of the adult population per week, and provide a rapid estimate of the absolute population size of Ae. aegypti. These data are discussed with respect to release rates and monitoring in future Wolbachia releases and also the levels of suppression required to reduce dengue transmission. PMID:23802459

  20. The elusive minimum viable population size for white sturgeon

    SciTech Connect

    Jager, Yetta; Lepla, Ken B.; Van Winkle, Webb; James, Mr Brad; McAdam, Dr Steve

    2010-01-01

    Biological conservation of sturgeon populations is a concern for many species. Those responsible for managing the white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) and similar species are interested in identifying extinction thresholds to avoid. Two thresholds that exist in theory are the minimum viable population size (MVP) and minimum amount of suitable habitat. In this paper, we present both model and empirical estimates of these thresholds. We modified a population viability analysis (PVA) model for white sturgeon to include two new Allee mechanisms. Despite this, PVA-based MVP estimates were unrealistically low compared with empirical estimates unless opportunities for spawning were assumed to be less frequent. PVA results revealed a trade-off between MVP and habitat thresholds; smaller populations persisted in longer river segments and vice versa. Our empirical analyses suggested (1) a MVP range based on population trends from 1,194 to 27,700 individuals, and (2) a MVP estimate of 4,000 individuals based on recruitment. Long-term historical population surveys are needed for more populations to pinpoint an MVP based on trends, whereas the available data were sufficient to estimate MVP based on recruitment. Beyond the MVP, we developed a hierarchical model for population status based on empirical data. Metapopulation support was the most important predictor of population health, followed by the length of free-flowing habitat, with habitat thresholds at 26 and 150 km. Together, these results suggest that habitat and connectivity are important determinants of population status that likely influence the site-specific MVP thresholds.

  1. Bayesian Optimization Algorithm, Population Sizing, and Time to Convergence

    SciTech Connect

    Pelikan, M.; Goldberg, D.E.; Cantu-Paz, E.

    2000-01-19

    This paper analyzes convergence properties of the Bayesian optimization algorithm (BOA). It settles the BOA into the framework of problem decomposition used frequently in order to model and understand the behavior of simple genetic algorithms. The growth of the population size and the number of generations until convergence with respect to the size of a problem is theoretically analyzed. The theoretical results are supported by a number of experiments.

  2. Cohort size and migration in a West Indian population.

    PubMed

    Brittain, A W

    1990-01-01

    The author examines the relationship between cohort size and migration patterns among the population of the French West Indies island of St. Barthelemy. Data show that "for people born from 1878 to 1967, neither cohort size nor fluctuations in external demands for labor had a lasting effect on the probability of eventual migration. Emigration rates only slowed after the development of the local tourist industry brought prosperity to the island." PMID:12283449

  3. Estimating the size of hidden populations from register data

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Prevalence estimates of drug use, or of its consequences, are considered important in many contexts and may have substantial influence over public policy. However, it is rarely possible to simply count the relevant individuals, in particular when the defining characteristics might be illegal, as in the drug use case. Consequently methods are needed to estimate the size of such partly ‘hidden’ populations, and many such methods have been developed and used within epidemiology including studies of alcohol and drug use. Here we introduce a method appropriate for estimating the size of human populations given a single source of data, for example entries in a health-care registry. Methods The setup is the following: during a fixed time-period, e.g. a year, individuals belonging to the target population have a non-zero probability of being “registered”. Each individual might be registered multiple times and the time-points of the registrations are recorded. Assuming that the population is closed and that the probability of being registered at least once is constant, we derive a family of maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of total population size. We study the ML estimator using Monte Carlo simulations and delimit the range of cases where it is useful. In particular we investigate the effect of making the population heterogeneous with respect to probability of being registered. Results The new estimator is asymptotically unbiased and we show that high precision estimates can be obtained for samples covering as little as 25% of the total population size. However, if the total population size is small (say in the order of 500) a larger fraction needs to be sampled to achieve reliable estimates. Further we show that the estimator give reliable estimates even when individuals differ in the probability of being registered. We also compare the ML estimator to an estimator known as Chao’s estimator and show that the latter can have a substantial bias when

  4. Recent divergences and size decreases of eastern gorilla populations.

    PubMed

    Roy, Justin; Arandjelovic, Mimi; Bradley, Brenda J; Guschanski, Katerina; Stephens, Colleen R; Bucknell, Dan; Cirhuza, Henry; Kusamba, Chifundera; Kyungu, Jean Claude; Smith, Vince; Robbins, Martha M; Vigilant, Linda

    2014-11-01

    Compared with other African apes, eastern gorillas (Gorilla beringei) have been little studied genetically. We used analysis of autosomal DNA genotypes obtained from non-invasively collected faecal samples to estimate the evolutionary histories of the two extant mountain gorilla populations and the closely related eastern lowland gorillas. Our results suggest that eastern lowland gorillas and mountain gorillas split beginning some 10 000 years ago, followed 5000 years ago by the split of the two mountain gorilla populations of Bwindi Impenetrable National Park and the Virungas Massif. All three populations have decreased in effective population size, with particularly substantial 10-fold decreases for the mountain gorillas. These dynamics probably reflect responses to habitat changes resulting from climate fluctuations over the past 20 000 years as well as increasing human influence in this densely populated region in the last several thousand years. PMID:25376805

  5. The Population Size of the Lesser Bandicoot (Bandicota bengalensis) in Three Markets in Penang, Malaysia

    PubMed Central

    Khairuddin, Nurul Liyana; Raghazli, Razlina; Sah, Shahrul Anuar Mohd; Shafie, Nur Juliani; Azman, Nur Munira

    2011-01-01

    A study of the population size of Bandicota bengalensis rats in three markets in Penang was conducted from April 2004 through May 2005. Taman Tun Sardon Market (TTS), Batu Lanchang Market (BTLG) and Bayan Lepas Market (BYNLP) were surveyed. Six sampling sessions were conducted in each market for four consecutive nights per session. The total captures of B. bengalensis in TTS, BTLG and BYNLP were 92%, 73% and 89% respectively. The total population of B. bengalensis in TTS was estimated as 265.4 (with a 95% confidence interval of 180.9–424.2). The total population at BTLG was estimated as 69.9 (with a 95% confidence interval of 35.5–148.9). At BYNLP, the total population was estimated as 134.7 (with a 95% confidence interval of 77.8–278.4). In general, adult male rats were captured most frequently at each site (55.19%), followed by adult females (31.69%), juvenile males (9.84%) and juvenile females (3.27%). The results showed that the number of rats captured at each site differed significantly according to sex ratio and maturity (χ2 = 121.45, df = 3, p<0.01). Our results suggest that the population sizes found by the study may not represent the actual population size in each market owing to the low numbers of rats recaptured. This finding might have resulted from the variety of foods available in the markets. PMID:24575219

  6. An aerial sightability model for estimating ferruginous hawk population size

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ayers, L.W.; Anderson, S.H.

    1999-01-01

    Most raptor aerial survey projects have focused on numeric description of visibility bias without identifying the contributing factors or developing predictive models to account for imperfect detection rates. Our goal was to develop a sightability model for nesting ferruginous hawks (Buteo regalis) that could account for nests missed during aerial surveys and provide more accurate population estimates. Eighteen observers, all unfamiliar with nest locations in a known population, searched for nests within 300 m of flight transects via a Maule fixed-wing aircraft. Flight variables tested for their influence on nest-detection rates included aircraft speed, height, direction of travel, time of day, light condition, distance to nest, and observer experience level. Nest variables included status (active vs. inactive), condition (i.e., excellent, good, fair, poor, bad), substrate type, topography, and tree density. A multiple logistic regression model identified nest substrate type, distance to nest, and observer experience level as significant predictors of detection rates (P < 0.05). The overall model was significant (??26 = 124.4, P < 0.001, n = 255 nest observations), and the correct classification rate was 78.4%. During 2 validation surveys, observers saw 23.7% (14/59) and 36.5% (23/63) of the actual population. Sightability model predictions, with 90% confidence intervals, captured the true population in both tests. Our results indicate standardized aerial surveys, when used in conjunction with the predictive sightability model, can provide unbiased population estimates for nesting ferruginous hawks.

  7. Inferring the Dynamics of Effective Population Size Using Autosomal Genomes.

    PubMed

    Hou, Zheng; Luo, Yin; Wang, Zhisheng; Zheng, Hong-Xiang; Wang, Yi; Zhou, Hang; Wu, Leqin; Jin, Li

    2016-01-01

    Next-generation sequencing technology has provided a great opportunity for inferring human demographic history by investigating changes in the effective population size (Ne). In this report, we introduce a strategy for estimating Ne dynamics, allowing the exploration of large multi-locus SNP datasets. We applied this strategy to the Phase 1 Han Chinese samples from the 1000 Genomes Project. The Han Chinese population has undergone a continuous expansion since 25,000 years ago, at first slowly from about 7,300 to 9,800 (at the end of the last glacial maximum about 15,000 YBP), then more quickly to about 46,000 (at the beginning of the Neolithic about 8,000 YBP), and then even more quickly to reach a population size of about 140,000 (recently). PMID:26832887

  8. Inferring the Dynamics of Effective Population Size Using Autosomal Genomes

    PubMed Central

    Hou, Zheng; Luo, Yin; Wang, Zhisheng; Zheng, Hong-Xiang; Wang, Yi; Zhou, Hang; Wu, Leqin; Jin, Li

    2016-01-01

    Next-generation sequencing technology has provided a great opportunity for inferring human demographic history by investigating changes in the effective population size (Ne). In this report, we introduce a strategy for estimating Ne dynamics, allowing the exploration of large multi-locus SNP datasets. We applied this strategy to the Phase 1 Han Chinese samples from the 1000 Genomes Project. The Han Chinese population has undergone a continuous expansion since 25,000 years ago, at first slowly from about 7,300 to 9,800 (at the end of the last glacial maximum about 15,000 YBP), then more quickly to about 46,000 (at the beginning of the Neolithic about 8,000 YBP), and then even more quickly to reach a population size of about 140,000 (recently). PMID:26832887

  9. [Review article: actual danger to the domestic animal populations of exotic animal epidemics].

    PubMed

    Kaaden, O R; Haas, L

    1989-05-01

    Most of the formerly important virus diseases like foot-and-mouth disease and enzootic bovine leukosis were eradicated in the Federal Republic of Germany during the recent decades. However, there is a continuous menace of our domestic animal population by exotic virus epidemics related to the concentration of animals in large farms, the intensified international trade of animals and their meat or milk products, and the introduction of a common European market starting in 1992. This view is emphasized by the recent outbreaks of African horse sickness in Spain in 1987/1988. In this article, foot-and-mouth disease and African horse sickness will be described as potentially dangerous virus epidemics. Furthermore, the occurrence of formerly unknown diseases has to be considered. Haemorrhagic disease of rabbits which was recently introduced in Germany is an example of new developments in virus epidemics. These three diseases, their epidemiology and the biology of the corresponding viruses will be discussed in detail. PMID:2667934

  10. Critical Mutation Rate Has an Exponential Dependence on Population Size in Haploid and Diploid Populations

    PubMed Central

    Aston, Elizabeth; Channon, Alastair; Day, Charles; Knight, Christopher G.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the effect of population size on the key parameters of evolution is particularly important for populations nearing extinction. There are evolutionary pressures to evolve sequences that are both fit and robust. At high mutation rates, individuals with greater mutational robustness can outcompete those with higher fitness. This is survival-of-the-flattest, and has been observed in digital organisms, theoretically, in simulated RNA evolution, and in RNA viruses. We introduce an algorithmic method capable of determining the relationship between population size, the critical mutation rate at which individuals with greater robustness to mutation are favoured over individuals with greater fitness, and the error threshold. Verification for this method is provided against analytical models for the error threshold. We show that the critical mutation rate for increasing haploid population sizes can be approximated by an exponential function, with much lower mutation rates tolerated by small populations. This is in contrast to previous studies which identified that critical mutation rate was independent of population size. The algorithm is extended to diploid populations in a system modelled on the biological process of meiosis. The results confirm that the relationship remains exponential, but show that both the critical mutation rate and error threshold are lower for diploids, rather than higher as might have been expected. Analyzing the transition from critical mutation rate to error threshold provides an improved definition of critical mutation rate. Natural populations with their numbers in decline can be expected to lose genetic material in line with the exponential model, accelerating and potentially irreversibly advancing their decline, and this could potentially affect extinction, recovery and population management strategy. The effect of population size is particularly strong in small populations with 100 individuals or less; the exponential model has

  11. Population size and time since island isolation determine genetic diversity loss in insular frog populations.

    PubMed

    Wang, Supen; Zhu, Wei; Gao, Xu; Li, Xianping; Yan, Shaofei; Liu, Xuan; Yang, Ji; Gao, Zengxiang; Li, Yiming

    2014-02-01

    Understanding the factors that contribute to loss of genetic diversity in fragmented populations is crucial for conservation measurements. Land-bridge archipelagoes offer ideal model systems for identifying the long-term effects of these factors on genetic variations in wild populations. In this study, we used nine microsatellite markers to quantify genetic diversity and differentiation of 810 pond frogs (Pelophylax nigromaculatus) from 24 islands of the Zhoushan Archipelago and three sites on nearby mainland China and estimated the effects of the island area, population size, time since island isolation, distance to the mainland and distance to the nearest larger island on reduced genetic diversity of insular populations. The mainland populations displayed higher genetic diversity than insular populations. Genetic differentiations and no obvious gene flow were detected among the frog populations on the islands. Hierarchical partitioning analysis showed that only time since island isolation (square-root-transformed) and population size (log-transformed) significantly contributed to insular genetic diversity. These results suggest that decreased genetic diversity and genetic differentiations among insular populations may have been caused by random genetic drift following isolation by rising sea levels during the Holocene. The results provide strong evidence for a relationship between retained genetic diversity and population size and time since island isolation for pond frogs on the islands, consistent with the prediction of the neutral theory for finite populations. Our study highlights the importance of the size and estimated isolation time of populations in understanding the mechanisms of genetic diversity loss and differentiation in fragmented wild populations. PMID:24351057

  12. Coexistence of structured populations with size-based prey selection.

    PubMed

    Hartvig, Martin; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2013-11-01

    Species with a large adult-offspring size ratio and a preferred predator-prey mass ratio undergo ontogenetic trophic niche shift(s) throughout life. Trophic interactions between such species vary throughout life, resulting in different species-level interaction motifs depending on the maximum adult sizes and population size distributions. We explore the assembly and potential for coexistence of small communities where all species experience ontogenetic trophic niche shifts. The life-history of each species is described by a physiologically structured model and species identity is characterised by the trait: size at maturation. We show that a single species can exist in two different states: a 'resource driven state' and a 'cannibalistic state' with a large scope for emergent Allee effects and bistable states. Two species can coexist in two different configurations: in a 'competitive coexistence' state when the ratio between sizes at maturation of the two species is less than a predator-prey mass ratio and the resource level is low to intermediate, or in a 'trophic ladder' state if the ratio of sizes at maturation is larger than the predator-prey mass ratio at all resource levels. While there is a large scope for coexistence of two species, the scope for coexistence of three species is limited and we conclude that further trait differentiation is required for coexistence of more species-rich size-structured communities. PMID:23927897

  13. Matrimonial distance, inbreeding coefficient and population size: Dhangar data.

    PubMed

    Majumder, P P; Malhotra, K C

    1979-01-01

    Data on the distance between the birthplaces of spouses (matrimonial distance) were collected from 2,260 married individuals belonging to 21 endogamous castes of the Dhangar (shepherd) cast-cluster of Maharashtra, India. The general form of the distribution of matrimonial distances is one which is extremely positively skewed and leptokurtic. The percentage of intra-village marriages generally decreases from the southern areas of Maharashtra to the northern areas of the state, as does the inbreeding coefficient. This situation is in conformity with the socio-cultural norms regulating matrimonial choice in south and north India. An attempt has been made to relate the degree of inbreeding to the mean matrimonial distance and population size. The mean matrimonial distance is more useful in predicting the degree of inbreeding than population size. PMID:434763

  14. Estimating Population Size Using the Network Scale Up Method

    PubMed Central

    Maltiel, Rachael; Raftery, Adrian E.; McCormick, Tyler H.; Baraff, Aaron J.

    2015-01-01

    We develop methods for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations from data collected using network-based questions on standard surveys. Such data arise by asking respondents how many people they know in a specific group (e.g. people named Michael, intravenous drug users). The Network Scale up Method (NSUM) is a tool for producing population size estimates using these indirect measures of respondents’ networks. Killworth et al. (1998a,b) proposed maximum likelihood estimators of population size for a fixed effects model in which respondents’ degrees or personal network sizes are treated as fixed. We extend this by treating personal network sizes as random effects, yielding principled statements of uncertainty. This allows us to generalize the model to account for variation in people’s propensity to know people in particular subgroups (barrier effects), such as their tendency to know people like themselves, as well as their lack of awareness of or reluctance to acknowledge their contacts’ group memberships (transmission bias). NSUM estimates also suffer from recall bias, in which respondents tend to underestimate the number of members of larger groups that they know, and conversely for smaller groups. We propose a data-driven adjustment method to deal with this. Our methods perform well in simulation studies, generating improved estimates and calibrated uncertainty intervals, as well as in back estimates of real sample data. We apply them to data from a study of HIV/AIDS prevalence in Curitiba, Brazil. Our results show that when transmission bias is present, external information about its likely extent can greatly improve the estimates. The methods are implemented in the NSUM R package. PMID:26949438

  15. Determining population size of territorial red-winged blackbirds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Albers, P.H.

    1976-01-01

    Population sizes of territorial male red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) were determined with counts of territorial males (area count) and a Petersen-Lincoln Index method for roadsides (roadside estimate). Weather conditions and time of day did not influence either method. Combined roadside estimates had smaller error bounds than the individual transect estimates and were not hindered by the problem of zero recaptures. Roadside estimates were usually one-half as large as the area counts, presumably due to an observer bias for marked birds. The roadside estimate provides only an index of major changes in populations of territorial male redwings. When the roadside estimate is employed, the area count should be used to determine the amount and nature of observer bias. For small population surveys, the area count is probably more reliable and accurate than the roadside estimate.

  16. Accuracy of Four Tooth Size Prediction Methods on Malay Population

    PubMed Central

    Mahmoud, Belal Khaled; Abu Asab, Saifeddin Hamed I.; Taib, Haslina

    2012-01-01

    Objective. To examine the accuracy of Moyers 50%, Tanaka and Johnston, Ling and Wong and Jaroontham and Godfrey methods in predicting the mesio-distal crown width of the permanent canines and premolars (C + P1 + P2) in Malay population. Materials and Methods. The study models of 240 Malay children (120 males and 120 females) aged 14 to 18 years, all free of any signs of dental pathology or anomalies, were measured using a digital caliper accurate to 0.01 mm. The predicted widths (C + P1 + P2) in both arches derived from the tested prediction equations were compared with the actual measured widths. Results. Moyers and Tanaka and Johnston methods showed significant difference between the actual and predicted widths of (C + P1 + P2) for both sexes. Ling and Wong method also showed statistically significant difference for males, however, there was no significant difference for females. Jaroontham and Godfrey method showed statistical significant difference for females, but the male values did not show any significant difference. Conclusion. For male Malay, the method proposed by Jaroontham and Godfrey for male Thai proved to be highly accurate. For female Malay, the method proposed by Ling and Wong for southern Chinese females proved to be highly accurate. PMID:23209918

  17. Naturalization of plant populations: the role of cultivation and population size and density.

    PubMed

    Minton, Mark S; Mack, Richard N

    2010-10-01

    Field experimentation is required to assess the effects of environmental stochasticity on small immigrant plant populations-a widely understood but largely unexplored aspect of predicting any species' likelihood of naturalization and potential invasion. Cultivation can mitigate this stochasticity, although the outcome for a population under cultivation nevertheless varies enormously from extinction to persistence. Using factorial experiments, we investigated the effects of population size, density, and cultivation (irrigation) on the fate of founder populations for four alien species with different life history characteristics (Echinochloa frumentacea, Fagopyrum esculentum, Helianthus annuus, and Trifolium incarnatum) in eastern Washington, USA. The fate of founder populations was highly variable within and among the 3 years of experimentation and illustrates the often precarious environment encountered by plant immigrants. Larger founder populations produced more seeds (P < 0.001); the role of founder population size, however, differed among years. Irrigation resulted in higher percent survival (P < 0.001) and correspondingly larger net reproductive rate (R(0); P < 0.001). But the minimum level of irrigation for establishment, R(0) > 1, differed among years and species. Sowing density did not affect the likelihood of establishment for any species. Our results underscore the importance of environmental stochasticity in determining the fate of founder populations and the potential of cultivation and large population size in countering the long odds against naturalization. Any implementation of often proposed post-immigration field trials to assess the risk of an alien species becoming naturalized, a requisite step toward invasion, will need to assess different sizes of founder populations and the extent and character of cultivation (intentional or unintentional) that the immigrants might receive. PMID:20532919

  18. Hamstring graft size and anthropometry in south Indian population

    PubMed Central

    Challa, Supradeeptha; Satyaprasad, Jonnalagedda

    2013-01-01

    Background and Aim The role of anthropometric measurements in the prediction of hamstring autograft size in Indian population remains unclear. Till now, no studies have been done on Indian population. Methods We evaluated 41 consecutive patients (34 males, 7 females) prospectively with anterior cruciate ligament deficiency scheduled for reconstruction using hamstring autograft at our institution between June 2011 and June 2013. Preoperatively we recorded age, gender, height, weight, body mass index, and activity level. Intraoperative measurements of semitendinosus tendon like absolute length, diameter before fashioning the graft and final diameter of the tripled graft using sizing tubes calibrated to 1 mm. Correlation coefficient (Pearson's r) analysis was used. Results As per study there is no correlation between graft diameter, age, sex, weight, activity, and body mass index, of patients. Height of patients correlated to graft diameter in both Indian men and women (p < 0.001). Conclusion Anthropometric measurements such as weight, gender, activity level cannot be used as definitive predictors for the hamstring graft diameter during harvest but height of the patients can be taken as good predictor in Indian population. PMID:26403553

  19. Reinfestation analysis to estimate ectoparasite population size, emergence, and mortality.

    PubMed

    Lehmann, T

    1994-03-01

    The key components of ectoparasite vectorial capacity are poorly known, and no estimates of absolute population size for nest ectoparasites nor average longevity under natural conditions are available. A simple method to estimate these and other population parameters is suggested here, using body infestation data obtained by a specific host sampling design and the reproductive status of female ectoparasites. In contrast to mark-release-recapture techniques, this method requires minimal effort. Data on fleas, Synosternus cleopatrae (Rothschild), infesting gerbils, Gerbilus anderosoni allenbyi Thomas, were used as a preliminary test of this method. Thus, the average absolute density of female S. cleopatrae per host varied from seven in June to 24 in September; average female longevity varied from 17 to 5 d in that period. The quality of the parameter estimates was assessed by computer simulations to evaluate their variance and by comparison with the data available on fleas. The simulation indicated that estimates of absolute population size and proportion of the corporeal subpopulation were robust, but estimates of emergence rate, mortality rate, and average longevity were considerably less. The method's efficiency depends on the infestation rate and was considered suitable for medium to high counts of ectoparasites infesting solitary hosts. PMID:8189416

  20. Size matters: How population size influences genotype–phenotype association studies in anonymized data

    PubMed Central

    Denny, Joshua C.; Haines, Jonathan L.; Roden, Dan M.; Malin, Bradley A.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Electronic medical records (EMRs) data is increasingly incorporated into genome-phenome association studies. Investigators hope to share data, but there are concerns it may be “re-identified” through the exploitation of various features, such as combinations of standardized clinical codes. Formal anonymization algorithms (e.g., k-anonymization) can prevent such violations, but prior studies suggest that the size of the population available for anonymization may influence the utility of the resulting data. We systematically investigate this issue using a large-scale biorepository and EMR system through which we evaluate the ability of researchers to learn from anonymized data for genome- phenome association studies under various conditions. Methods We use a k-anonymization strategy to simulate a data protection process (on data sets containing clinical codes) for resources of similar size to those found at nine academic medical institutions within the United States. Following the protection process, we replicate an existing genome-phenome association study and compare the discoveries using the protected data and the original data through the correlation (r2) of the p-values of association significance. Results Our investigation shows that anonymizing an entire dataset with respect to the population from which it is derived yields significantly more utility than small study-specific datasets anonymized unto themselves. When evaluated using the correlation of genome-phenome association strengths on anonymized data versus original data, all nine simulated sites, results from largest-scale anonymizations (population ∼ 100;000) retained better utility to those on smaller sizes (population ∼ 6000—75;000). We observed a general trend of increasing r2 for larger data set sizes: r2 = 0.9481 for small-sized datasets, r2 = 0.9493 for moderately-sized datasets, r2 = 0.9934 for large-sized datasets. Conclusions This research implies that regardless of the

  1. Economic consequences of population size, structure and growth.

    PubMed

    Lee, R

    1983-01-01

    There seems to be 4 major approaches to conceptualizing and modeling demographic influences on economic and social welfare. These approaches are combined in various ways to construct richer and more comprehensive models. The basic approaches are: demographic influences on household or family behavior; population growth and reproducible capital; population size and fixed factors; and population and advantages of scale. These 4 models emphasize the supply side effects of population. A few of the ways in which these theories have been combined are sketched. Neoclassical growth models often have been combined with age distributed populations of individuals (or households), assumed to pursue optimal life cycle consumption and saving. In some well known development models, neoclassical growth models for the modern sector are linked by labor markets and migration to fixed factor (land) models of the traditional (agricultural) sector. A whole series of macro simulation models for developed and developing countries was based on single sector neoclassical growth models with age distributed populations. Yet, typically the household level foundations of assumed age distribution effects were not worked out. Simon's (1977) simulation models are in a class by themselves, for they are the only models that attempt to incorporate all the kinds of effects discussed. The economic demography of the individual and family cycle, as it is affected by regimes of fertility, mortality, and nuptiality, taken as given, are considered. The examination touches on many of the purported consequences of aggregate population growth and age composition, since so many of these are based implicitly or explicitly on assertions about micro level behavior. Demographic influences on saving and consumption, on general labor supply and female labor supply, and on problems of youth and old age dependency frequently fall in this category. Finally, attention is focused specifically on macro economic issues in

  2. Population size does not explain past changes in cultural complexity

    PubMed Central

    Vaesen, Krist; Collard, Mark; Cosgrove, Richard; Roebroeks, Wil

    2016-01-01

    Demography is increasingly being invoked to account for features of the archaeological record, such as the technological conservatism of the Lower and Middle Pleistocene, the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition, and cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania. Such explanations are commonly justified in relation to population dynamic models developed by Henrich [Henrich J (2004) Am Antiq 69:197–214] and Powell et al. [Powell A, et al. (2009) Science 324(5932):1298–1301], which appear to demonstrate that population size is the crucial determinant of cultural complexity. Here, we show that these models fail in two important respects. First, they only support a relationship between demography and culture in implausible conditions. Second, their predictions conflict with the available archaeological and ethnographic evidence. We conclude that new theoretical and empirical research is required to identify the factors that drove the changes in cultural complexity that are documented by the archaeological record. PMID:27044082

  3. Understanding the size growth of massive galaxies through stellar populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreras, Ignacio

    2015-08-01

    The growth of massive galaxies remains an open problem. The observational evidence seems to converge on a two-stage scenario, where a compact massive core is formed during an early, intense burst, followed by a more extended process of mass and size growth at intermediate redshift (z<2). This talk focuses on the latter, exploring the growth of massive galaxies through a detailed analysis of the stellar populations in close pairs, to study their formation history. Two surveys are explored (SHARDS and GAMA), probing the stellar populations of pre-merging systems out to z~1.3, and down to a mass ratio ~1:100. We will compare the results between medium band spectral fitting (SHARDS) and those from a more targeted analysis of line strengths in the GAMA data. The combination of the two datasets provide a unique insight of the growth channel of massive galaxies via mergers.

  4. Population size does not explain past changes in cultural complexity.

    PubMed

    Vaesen, Krist; Collard, Mark; Cosgrove, Richard; Roebroeks, Wil

    2016-04-19

    Demography is increasingly being invoked to account for features of the archaeological record, such as the technological conservatism of the Lower and Middle Pleistocene, the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition, and cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania. Such explanations are commonly justified in relation to population dynamic models developed by Henrich [Henrich J (2004)Am Antiq69:197-214] and Powell et al. [Powell A, et al. (2009)Science324(5932):1298-1301], which appear to demonstrate that population size is the crucial determinant of cultural complexity. Here, we show that these models fail in two important respects. First, they only support a relationship between demography and culture in implausible conditions. Second, their predictions conflict with the available archaeological and ethnographic evidence. We conclude that new theoretical and empirical research is required to identify the factors that drove the changes in cultural complexity that are documented by the archaeological record. PMID:27044082

  5. Understanding the size growth of massive galaxies through stellar populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreras, I.; Trujillo, I.; Mármol-Queraltó, E.; Pérez-González, P.

    Massive early-type galaxies undergo a significant process of evolution with redshift on the stellar mass vs size plane. Furthermore, this trend does not depend on the age of their stellar populations. Therefore, such an evolution should involve processes that do not include a significant amount of star formation, leaving (mostly) dry mergers as the main growth channel. By studying close pairs involving a massive galaxy, one can quantify the role of mergers on the growth of massive galaxies. A recent study based on the SHARDS dataset reveals that minor mergers cannot be the dominant mechanism to explain the bulk of size growth in these systems. Merging is found to provide a constant fractional growth rate of ~10% per Gyr from redshift z=1, corresponding to an overall stellar mass increase of 2× between z=1 and z=0.

  6. Asymmetric competition causes multimodal size distributions in spatially structured populations.

    PubMed

    Velázquez, Jorge; Allen, Robert B; Coomes, David A; Eichhorn, Markus P

    2016-01-27

    Plant sizes within populations often exhibit multimodal distributions, even when all individuals are the same age and have experienced identical conditions. To establish the causes of this, we created an individual-based model simulating the growth of trees in a spatially explicit framework, which was parametrized using data from a long-term study of forest stands in New Zealand. First, we demonstrate that asymmetric resource competition is a necessary condition for the formation of multimodal size distributions within cohorts. By contrast, the legacy of small-scale clustering during recruitment is transient and quickly overwhelmed by density-dependent mortality. Complex multi-layered size distributions are generated when established individuals are restricted in the spatial domain within which they can capture resources. The number of modes reveals the effective number of direct competitors, while the separation and spread of modes are influenced by distances among established individuals. Asymmetric competition within local neighbourhoods can therefore generate a range of complex size distributions within even-aged cohorts. PMID:26817778

  7. Equilibrium Strategy and Population-Size Effects in Lowest Unique Bid Auctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pigolotti, Simone; Bernhardsson, Sebastian; Juul, Jeppe; Galster, Gorm; Vivo, Pierpaolo

    2012-02-01

    In lowest unique bid auctions, N players bid for an item. The winner is whoever places the lowest bid, provided that it is also unique. We use a grand canonical approach to derive an analytical expression for the equilibrium distribution of strategies. We then study the properties of the solution as a function of the mean number of players, and compare them with a large data set of internet auctions. The theory agrees with the data with striking accuracy for small population-size N, while for larger N a qualitatively different distribution is observed. We interpret this result as the emergence of two different regimes, one in which adaptation is feasible and one in which it is not. Our results question the actual possibility of a large population to adapt and find the optimal strategy when participating in a collective game.

  8. 24 CFR 81.17 - Affordability-Income level definitions-family size and income known (owner-occupied units, actual...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... definitions-family size and income known (owner-occupied units, actual tenants, and prospective tenants). 81... prospective tenants). In determining whether a dwelling unit is affordable to very-low-, low-, or moderate... prospective tenants is available, income not in excess of the following percentages of area median...

  9. 12 CFR 1282.17 - Affordability-Income level definitions-family size and income known (owner-occupied units, actual...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Affordability-Income level definitions-family size and income known (owner-occupied units, actual tenants, and prospective tenants). 1282.17 Section 1282.17 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY HOUSING GOALS AND MISSION ENTERPRISE HOUSING GOALS AND MISSION Housing Goals §...

  10. Actual and potential use of population viability analyses in recovery of plant species listed under the US endangered species act.

    PubMed

    Zeigler, Sara L; Che-Castaldo, Judy P; Neel, Maile C

    2013-12-01

    Use of population viability analyses (PVAs) in endangered species recovery planning has been met with both support and criticism. Previous reviews promote use of PVA for setting scientifically based, measurable, and objective recovery criteria and recommend improvements to increase the framework's utility. However, others have questioned the value of PVA models for setting recovery criteria and assert that PVAs are more appropriate for understanding relative trade-offs between alternative management actions. We reviewed 258 final recovery plans for 642 plants listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act to determine the number of plans that used or recommended PVA in recovery planning. We also reviewed 223 publications that describe plant PVAs to assess how these models were designed and whether those designs reflected previous recommendations for improvement of PVAs. Twenty-four percent of listed species had recovery plans that used or recommended PVA. In publications, the typical model was a matrix population model parameterized with ≤5 years of demographic data that did not consider stochasticity, genetics, density dependence, seed banks, vegetative reproduction, dormancy, threats, or management strategies. Population growth rates for different populations of the same species or for the same population at different points in time were often statistically different or varied by >10%. Therefore, PVAs parameterized with underlying vital rates that vary to this degree may not accurately predict recovery objectives across a species' entire distribution or over longer time scales. We assert that PVA, although an important tool as part of an adaptive-management program, can help to determine quantitative recovery criteria only if more long-term data sets that capture spatiotemporal variability in vital rates become available. Lacking this, there is a strong need for viable and comprehensive methods for determining quantitative, science-based recovery criteria for

  11. Population size and winter distribution of eastern American oystercatchers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brown, S.C.; Schulte, Shiloh A.; Harrington, B.; Winn, Brad; Bart, J.; Howe, M.

    2005-01-01

    Conservation of the eastern subspecies of the American oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus palliatus) is a high priority in the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan, but previous population estimates were unreliable, information on distribution and habitat associations during winter was incomplete, and methods for long-term monitoring had not been developed prior to this survey. We completed the aerial survey proposed in the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan to determine population size, winter distribution, and habitat associations. We conducted coastal aerial surveys from New Jersey to Texas during November 2002 to February 2003. This area comprised the entire wintering range of the eastern American oystercatcher within the United States. Surveys covered all suitable habitat in the United States for the subspecies, partitioned into 3 survey strata: known roost sites, high-use habitat, and inter-coastal tidal habitat. We determined known roost sites from extensive consultation with biologists and local experts in each state. High-use habitat included sand islands, sand spits at inlets, shell rakes, and oyster reefs. Partner organizations conducted ground counts in most states. We used high resolution still photography to determine detection rates for estimates of the number of birds in particular flocks, and we used ground counts to determine detection rates of flocks. Using a combination of ground and aerial counts, we estimated the population of eastern American oystercatchers to be 10,971 +/- 298. Aerial surveys can serve an important management function for shorebirds and possibly other coastal waterbirds by providing population status and trend information across a wide geographic scale.

  12. Genome-Wide Estimates of Coancestry, Inbreeding and Effective Population Size in the Spanish Holstein Population

    PubMed Central

    Rodríguez-Ramilo, Silvia Teresa; Fernández, Jesús; Toro, Miguel Angel; Hernández, Delfino; Villanueva, Beatriz

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of effective population size in the Holstein cattle breed have usually been low despite the large number of animals that constitute this breed. Effective population size is inversely related to the rates at which coancestry and inbreeding increase and these rates have been high as a consequence of intense and accurate selection. Traditionally, coancestry and inbreeding coefficients have been calculated from pedigree data. However, the development of genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms has increased the interest of calculating these coefficients from molecular data in order to improve their accuracy. In this study, genomic estimates of coancestry, inbreeding and effective population size were obtained in the Spanish Holstein population and then compared with pedigree-based estimates. A total of 11,135 animals genotyped with the Illumina BovineSNP50 BeadChip were available for the study. After applying filtering criteria, the final genomic dataset included 36,693 autosomal SNPs and 10,569 animals. Pedigree data from those genotyped animals included 31,203 animals. These individuals represented only the last five generations in order to homogenise the amount of pedigree information across animals. Genomic estimates of coancestry and inbreeding were obtained from identity by descent segments (coancestry) or runs of homozygosity (inbreeding). The results indicate that the percentage of variance of pedigree-based coancestry estimates explained by genomic coancestry estimates was higher than that for inbreeding. Estimates of effective population size obtained from genome-wide and pedigree information were consistent and ranged from about 66 to 79. These low values emphasize the need of controlling the rate of increase of coancestry and inbreeding in Holstein selection programmes. PMID:25880228

  13. THE MASSIVE SATELLITE POPULATION OF MILKY-WAY-SIZED GALAXIES

    SciTech Connect

    Rodriguez-Puebla, Aldo; Avila-Reese, Vladimir; Drory, Niv

    2013-08-20

    subhalos should agree with the abundance of massive satellites in all MW-sized hosts, i.e., there is not a missing (massive) satellite problem for the {Lambda}CDM cosmology. However, we confirm that the maximum circular velocity, v{sub max}, of the subhalos of satellites smaller than m{sub *} {approx} 10{sup 8} M{sub Sun} is systematically larger than the v{sub max} inferred from current observational studies of the MW bright dwarf satellites; different from previous works, this conclusion is based on an analysis of the overall population of MW-sized galaxies. Some pieces of evidence suggest that the issue could refer only to satellite dwarfs but not to central dwarfs, then environmental processes associated with dwarfs inside host halos combined with supernova-driven core expansion should be on the basis of the lowering of v{sub max}.

  14. The effects of actual human size display and stereoscopic presentation on users' sense of being together with and of psychological immersion in a virtual character.

    PubMed

    Ahn, Dohyun; Seo, Youngnam; Kim, Minkyung; Kwon, Joung Huem; Jung, Younbo; Ahn, Jungsun; Lee, Doohwang

    2014-07-01

    This study examined the role of display size and mode in increasing users' sense of being together with and of their psychological immersion in a virtual character. Using a high-resolution three-dimensional virtual character, this study employed a 2×2 (stereoscopic mode vs. monoscopic mode×actual human size vs. small size display) factorial design in an experiment with 144 participants randomly assigned to each condition. Findings showed that stereoscopic mode had a significant effect on both users' sense of being together and psychological immersion. However, display size affected only the sense of being together. Furthermore, display size was not found to moderate the effect of stereoscopic mode. PMID:24606057

  15. The Effects of Actual Human Size Display and Stereoscopic Presentation on Users' Sense of Being Together with and of Psychological Immersion in a Virtual Character

    PubMed Central

    Ahn, Dohyun; Seo, Youngnam; Kim, Minkyung; Kwon, Joung Huem; Jung, Younbo; Ahn, Jungsun

    2014-01-01

    Abstract This study examined the role of display size and mode in increasing users' sense of being together with and of their psychological immersion in a virtual character. Using a high-resolution three-dimensional virtual character, this study employed a 2×2 (stereoscopic mode vs. monoscopic mode×actual human size vs. small size display) factorial design in an experiment with 144 participants randomly assigned to each condition. Findings showed that stereoscopic mode had a significant effect on both users' sense of being together and psychological immersion. However, display size affected only the sense of being together. Furthermore, display size was not found to moderate the effect of stereoscopic mode. PMID:24606057

  16. Predicting anti-fat attitudes: individual differences based on actual and perceived body size, weight importance, entity mindset, and ethnicity.

    PubMed

    Scott, Shannon Rich; Rosen, Lisa H

    2015-06-01

    The purpose of the current study was to examine the relative impact of actual and perceived weight, weight importance, entity mindset, and ethnicity on anti-fat attitudes as well as to examine whether certain variables play the role of mediator. Participants included a multiethnic U.S. sample of 923 female undergraduates who completed a series of measures online. Lower BMI, higher perceived weight, higher importance of weight, endorsement of an entity mindset, and identification as White as compared to Black, Hispanic, or Asian predicted higher overall anti-fat attitudes. Examination of the individual Antifat Attitudes Questionnaire subscales (i.e. dislike, fear of fat, and willpower) using Relative Weight Analysis suggested that weight importance is an important predictor of multiple aspects of anti-fat attitudes. In addition, weight importance mediated the relationship between perceived weight and fear of fat as well as the relationship between ethnicity and dislike. Implications of findings and future research directions are discussed. PMID:25326878

  17. Making It Count: Improving Estimates of the Size of Transgender and Gender Nonconforming Populations.

    PubMed

    Deutsch, Madeline B

    2016-06-01

    An accurate estimate of the number of transgender and gender nonconforming people is essential to inform policy and funding priorities and decisions. Historical reports of population sizes of 1 in 4000 to 1 in 50,000 have been based on clinical populations and likely underestimate the size of the transgender population. More recent population-based studies have found a 10- to 100-fold increase in population size. Studies that estimate population size should be population based, employ the two-step method to allow for collection of both gender identity and sex assigned at birth, and include measures to capture the range of transgender people with nonbinary gender identities. PMID:27135657

  18. The role of font size and font style in younger and older adults' predicted and actual recall performance.

    PubMed

    Price, Jodi; McElroy, Kelsey; Martin, Nicholas J

    2016-01-01

    We examined how font sizes (18pt., 48 pt.) and font styles (regular, italic, bold) influenced younger and older adults' judgments of learning (JOLs) and recall. In Experiment 1 younger adults gave higher JOLs and obtained higher recall than older adults. However, JOLs and recall varied for both age groups as a function of font size and font style manipulations despite a tendency for both groups to predict higher recall for items in large and in regular and italic styles than for small and bold fonts and achieve higher recall for regular than italic or bold items. No age differences were found in relative accuracy, with near-perfect calibration in absolute accuracy for younger and older adults. Experiment 2 presented a description of Experiment 1 and asked participants to predict recall for the various font size/style combinations. Younger and older adults predicted higher recall for large than small font items, regardless of font style, and higher recall for bold than regular or italic styles, regardless of font size. Memory predictions did not align across experiments, suggesting that memory beliefs combine with processing fluency to affect JOLs and recall. PMID:26513175

  19. Accurate Non-parametric Estimation of Recent Effective Population Size from Segments of Identity by Descent

    PubMed Central

    Browning, Sharon R.; Browning, Brian L.

    2015-01-01

    Existing methods for estimating historical effective population size from genetic data have been unable to accurately estimate effective population size during the most recent past. We present a non-parametric method for accurately estimating recent effective population size by using inferred long segments of identity by descent (IBD). We found that inferred segments of IBD contain information about effective population size from around 4 generations to around 50 generations ago for SNP array data and to over 200 generations ago for sequence data. In human populations that we examined, the estimates of effective size were approximately one-third of the census size. We estimate the effective population size of European-ancestry individuals in the UK four generations ago to be eight million and the effective population size of Finland four generations ago to be 0.7 million. Our method is implemented in the open-source IBDNe software package. PMID:26299365

  20. A Sample/Population Size Activity: Is It the Sample Size of the Sample as a Fraction of the Population that Matters?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Margaret H.

    2004-01-01

    Unless the sample encompasses a substantial portion of the population, the standard error of an estimator depends on the size of the sample, but not the size of the population. This is a crucial statistical insight that students find very counterintuitive. After trying several ways of convincing students of the validity of this principle, I have…

  1. Stock enhancement or sea ranching? Insights from monitoring the genetic diversity, relatedness and effective population size in a seeded great scallop population (Pecten maximus).

    PubMed

    Morvezen, R; Boudry, P; Laroche, J; Charrier, G

    2016-09-01

    The mass release of hatchery-propagated stocks raises numerous questions concerning its efficiency in terms of local recruitment and effect on the genetic diversity of wild populations. A seeding program, consisting of mass release of hatchery-produced juveniles in the local naturally occurring population of great scallops (Pecten maximus L.), was initiated in the early 1980s in the Bay of Brest (France). The present study aims at evaluating whether this seeding program leads to actual population enhancement, with detectable effects on genetic diversity and effective population size, or consists of sea ranching with limited genetic consequences on the wild stock. To address this question, microsatellite-based genetic monitoring of three hatchery-born and naturally recruited populations was conducted over a 5-year period. Results showed a limited reduction in allelic richness but a strong alteration of allelic frequencies in hatchery populations, while genetic diversity appeared very stable over time in the wild populations. A temporal increase in relatedness was observed in both cultured stock and wild populations. Effective population size (Ne) estimates were low and variable in the wild population. Moreover, the application of the Ryman-Laikre model suggested a high contribution of hatchery-born scallops to the reproductive output of the wild population. Overall, the data suggest that the main objective of the seeding program, which is stock enhancement, is fulfilled. Moreover, gene flow from surrounding populations and/or the reproductive input of undetected sub-populations within the bay may buffer the Ryman-Laikre effect and ensure the retention of the local genetic variability. PMID:27353046

  2. On the importance of sampling variance to investigations of temporal variation in animal population size

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.; Nichols, J.D.

    1994-01-01

    Our purpose here is to emphasize the need to properly deal with sampling variance when studying population variability and to present a means of doing so. We present an estimator for temporal variance of population size for the general case in which there are both sampling variances and covariances associated with estimates of population size. We illustrate the estimation approach with a series of population size estimates for black-capped chickadees (Parus atricapillus) wintering in a Connecticut study area and with a series of population size estimates for breeding populations of ducks in southwestern Manitoba.

  3. Population genetic structure, linkage disequilibrium and effective population size of conserved and extensively raised village chicken populations of Southern Africa

    PubMed Central

    Khanyile, Khulekani S.; Dzomba, Edgar F.; Muchadeyi, Farai C.

    2015-01-01

    Extensively raised village chickens are considered a valuable source of biodiversity, with genetic variability developed over thousands of years that ought to be characterized and utilized. Surveys that can reveal a population's genetic structure and provide an insight into its demographic history will give valuable information that can be used to manage and conserve important indigenous animal genetic resources. This study reports population diversity and structure, linkage disequilibrium and effective population sizes of Southern African village chickens and conservation flocks from South Africa. DNA samples from 312 chickens from South African village and conservation flocks (n = 146), Malawi (n = 30) and Zimbabwe (n = 136) were genotyped using the Illumina iSelect chicken SNP60K BeadChip. Population genetic structure analysis distinguished the four conservation flocks from the village chicken populations. Of the four flocks, the Ovambo clustered closer to the village chickens particularly those sampled from South Africa. Clustering of the village chickens followed a geographic gradient whereby South African chickens were closer to those from Zimbabwe than to chickens from Malawi. Different conservation flocks seemed to have maintained different components of the ancestral genomes with a higher proportion of village chicken diversity found in the Ovambo population. Overall population LD averaged over chromosomes ranged from 0.03 ± 0.07 to 0.58 ± 0.41 and averaged 0.15 ± 0.16. Higher LD, ranging from 0.29 to 0.36, was observed between SNP markers that were less than 10 kb apart in the conservation flocks. LD in the conservation flocks steadily decreased to 0.15 (PK) and 0.24 (VD) at SNP marker interval of 500 kb. Genomewide LD decay in the village chickens from Malawi, Zimbabwe and South Africa followed a similar trend as the conservation flocks although the mean LD values for the investigated SNP intervals were lower. The results suggest low effective

  4. Small population size and extremely low levels of genetic diversity in island populations of the platypus, Ornithorhynchus anatinus

    PubMed Central

    Furlan, Elise; Stoklosa, J; Griffiths, J; Gust, N; Ellis, R; Huggins, R M; Weeks, A R

    2012-01-01

    Genetic diversity generally underpins population resilience and persistence. Reductions in population size and absence of gene flow can lead to reductions in genetic diversity, reproductive fitness, and a limited ability to adapt to environmental change increasing the risk of extinction. Island populations are typically small and isolated, and as a result, inbreeding and reduced genetic diversity elevate their extinction risk. Two island populations of the platypus, Ornithorhynchus anatinus, exist; a naturally occurring population on King Island in Bass Strait and a recently introduced population on Kangaroo Island off the coast of South Australia. Here we assessed the genetic diversity within these two island populations and contrasted these patterns with genetic diversity estimates in areas from which the populations are likely to have been founded. On Kangaroo Island, we also modeled live capture data to determine estimates of population size. Levels of genetic diversity in King Island platypuses are perilously low, with eight of 13 microsatellite loci fixed, likely reflecting their small population size and prolonged isolation. Estimates of heterozygosity detected by microsatellites (HE= 0.032) are among the lowest level of genetic diversity recorded by this method in a naturally outbreeding vertebrate population. In contrast, estimates of genetic diversity on Kangaroo Island are somewhat higher. However, estimates of small population size and the limited founders combined with genetic isolation are likely to lead to further losses of genetic diversity through time for the Kangaroo Island platypus population. Implications for the future of these and similarly isolated or genetically depauperate populations are discussed. PMID:22837830

  5. Founding population size of an aquatic invasive species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kalinowski, Steven T.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Guy, Christopher S.; Benjamin Cox

    2010-01-01

    Non-native species of fish threaten native fishes throughout North America, and in the Rocky Mountains, introduced populations of lake trout threaten native populations of bull trout. Effective management of lake trout and other exotic species require understanding the dynamics of invasion in order to either suppress non-native populations or to prevent their spread. In this study, we used microsatellite genetic data to estimate the number of lake trout that invaded a population of bull trout in Swan Lake, MT. Examination of genetic diversity and allele frequencies within the Swan Lake populations showed that most of the genes in the lake trout population are descended from two founders. This emphasizes the importance of preventing even a few lake trout from colonizing new territory.

  6. Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

    PubMed

    Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

    2014-11-01

    Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean

  7. Targeted agri-environment schemes significantly improve the population size of common farmland bumblebee species.

    PubMed

    Wood, Thomas J; Holland, John M; Hughes, William O H; Goulson, Dave

    2015-04-01

    Changes in agricultural practice across Europe and North America have been associated with range contractions and local extinction of bumblebees (Bombus spp.). A number of agri-environment schemes have been implemented to halt and reverse these declines, predominantly revolving around the provision of additional forage plants. Although it has been demonstrated that these schemes can attract substantial numbers of foraging bumblebees, it remains unclear to what extent they actually increase bumblebee populations. We used standardized transect walks and molecular techniques to compare the size of bumblebee populations between Higher Level Stewardship (HLS) farms implementing pollinator-friendly schemes and Entry Level Stewardship (ELS) control farms. Bumblebee abundance on the transect walks was significantly higher on HLS farms than ELS farms. Molecular analysis suggested maximum foraging ranges of 566 m for Bombus hortorum, 714 m for B. lapidarius, 363 m for B. pascuorum and 799 m for B. terrestris. Substantial differences in maximum foraging range were found within bumblebee species between farm types. Accounting for foraging range differences, B. hortorum (47 vs 13 nests/km(2) ) and B. lapidarius (45 vs 22 nests/km(2) ) were found to nest at significantly greater densities on HLS farms than ELS farms. There were no significant differences between farm type for B. terrestris (88 vs 38 nests/km(2) ) and B. pascuorum (32 vs 39 nests/km(2) ). Across all bumblebee species, HLS management had a significantly positive effect on bumblebee nest density. These results show that targeted agri-environment schemes that increase the availability of suitable forage can significantly increase the size of wild bumblebee populations. PMID:25753513

  8. Antarctic krill population genomics: apparent panmixia, but genome complexity and large population size muddy the water.

    PubMed

    Deagle, Bruce E; Faux, Cassandra; Kawaguchi, So; Meyer, Bettina; Jarman, Simon N

    2015-10-01

    Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba; hereafter krill) are an incredibly abundant pelagic crustacean which has a wide, but patchy, distribution in the Southern Ocean. Several studies have examined the potential for population genetic structuring in krill, but DNA-based analyses have focused on a limited number of markers and have covered only part of their circum-Antarctic range. We used mitochondrial DNA and restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) to investigate genetic differences between krill from five sites, including two from East Antarctica. Our mtDNA results show no discernible genetic structuring between sites separated by thousands of kilometres, which is consistent with previous studies. Using standard RAD-seq methodology, we obtained over a billion sequences from >140 krill, and thousands of variable nucleotides were identified at hundreds of loci. However, downstream analysis found that markers with sufficient coverage were primarily from multicopy genomic regions. Careful examination of these data highlights the complexity of the RAD-seq approach in organisms with very large genomes. To characterize the multicopy markers, we recorded sequence counts from variable nucleotide sites rather than the derived genotypes; we also examined a small number of manually curated genotypes. Although these analyses effectively fingerprinted individuals, and uncovered a minor laboratory batch effect, no population structuring was observed. Overall, our results are consistent with panmixia of krill throughout their distribution. This result may indicate ongoing gene flow. However, krill's enormous population size creates substantial panmictic inertia, so genetic differentiation may not occur on an ecologically relevant timescale even if demographically separate populations exist. PMID:26340718

  9. Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations.

    PubMed

    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

    2010-01-01

    Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size. PMID:19793747

  10. Influence of Population Density on Offspring Number and Size in Burying Beetles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rauter, Claudia M.

    2010-01-01

    This laboratory exercise investigates the influence of population density on offspring number and size in burying beetles. Students test the theoretical predictions that brood size declines and offspring size increases when competition over resources becomes stronger with increasing population density. Students design the experiment, collect and…

  11. Effective number of breeders, effective population size and their relationship with census size in an iteroparous species, Salvelinus fontinalis.

    PubMed

    Ruzzante, Daniel E; McCracken, Gregory R; Parmelee, Samantha; Hill, Kristen; Corrigan, Amelia; MacMillan, John; Walde, Sandra J

    2016-01-27

    The relationship between the effective number of breeders (Nb) and the generational effective size (Ne) has rarely been examined empirically in species with overlapping generations and iteroparity. Based on a suite of 11 microsatellite markers, we examine the relationship between Nb, Ne and census population size (Nc) in 14 brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) populations inhabiting 12 small streams in Nova Scotia and sampled at least twice between 2009 and 2015. Unbiased estimates of Nb obtained with individuals of a single cohort, adjusted on the basis of age at first maturation (α) and adult lifespan (AL), were from 1.66 to 0.24 times the average estimates of Ne obtained with random samples of individuals of mixed ages (i.e. [Formula: see text]). In turn, these differences led to adjusted Ne estimates that were from nearly five to 0.7 times the estimates derived from mixed-aged individuals. These differences translate into the same range of variation in the ratio of effective to census population size [Formula: see text] within populations. Adopting [Formula: see text] as the more precise and unbiased estimates, we found that these brook trout populations differ markedly in their effective to census population sizes (range approx. 0.3 to approx. 0.01). Using AgeNe, we then showed that the variance in reproductive success or reproductive skew varied among populations by a factor of 40, from Vk/k ≈ 5 to 200. These results suggest wide differences in population dynamics, probably resulting from differences in productivity affecting the intensity of competition for access to mates or redds, and thus reproductive skew. Understanding the relationship between Ne, Nb and Nc, and how these relate to population dynamics and fluctuations in population size, are important for the design of robust conservation strategies in small populations with overlapping generations and iteroparity. PMID:26817773

  12. Determining size and dispersion of minimum viable populations for land management planning and species conservation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehmkuhl, John F.

    1984-03-01

    The concept of minimum populations of wildlife and plants has only recently been discussed in the literature. Population genetics has emerged as a basic underlying criterion for determining minimum population size. This paper presents a genetic framework and procedure for determining minimum viable population size and dispersion strategies in the context of multiple-use land management planning. A procedure is presented for determining minimum population size based on maintenance of genetic heterozygosity and reduction of inbreeding. A minimum effective population size ( N e ) of 50 breeding animals is taken from the literature as the minimum shortterm size to keep inbreeding below 1% per generation. Steps in the procedure adjust N e to account for variance in progeny number, unequal sex ratios, overlapping generations, population fluctuations, and period of habitat/population constraint. The result is an approximate census number that falls within a range of effective population size of 50 500 individuals. This population range defines the time range of short- to long-term population fitness and evolutionary potential. The length of the term is a relative function of the species generation time. Two population dispersion strategies are proposed: core population and dispersed population.

  13. Body size distributions of the pale grass blue butterfly in Japan: Size rules and the status of the Fukushima population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taira, Wataru; Iwasaki, Mayo; Otaki, Joji M.

    2015-07-01

    The body size of the pale grass blue butterfly, Zizeeria maha, has been used as an environmental indicator of radioactive pollution caused by the Fukushima nuclear accident. However, geographical and temporal size distributions in Japan and temperature effects on size have not been established in this species. Here, we examined the geographical, temporal, and temperature-dependent changes of the forewing size of Z. maha argia in Japan. Butterflies collected in 2012 and 2013 from multiple prefectures throughout Japan demonstrated an inverse relationship of latitude and forewing size, which is the reverse of Bergmann’s cline. The Fukushima population was significantly larger than the Aomori and Miyagi populations and exhibited no difference from most of the other prefectural populations. When monitored at a single geographic locality every other month, forewing sizes were the largest in April and the smallest in August. Rearing larvae at a constant temperature demonstrated that forewing size followed the temperature-size rule. Therefore, the converse Bergmann’s rule and the temperature-size rule coexist in this multivoltine species. Our study establishes this species as a useful environmental indicator and supports the idea that the size reduction observed only in Fukushima Prefecture in 2011 was caused by the environmental stress of radioactive pollution.

  14. Body size distributions of the pale grass blue butterfly in Japan: Size rules and the status of the Fukushima population

    PubMed Central

    Taira, Wataru; Iwasaki, Mayo; Otaki, Joji M.

    2015-01-01

    The body size of the pale grass blue butterfly, Zizeeria maha, has been used as an environmental indicator of radioactive pollution caused by the Fukushima nuclear accident. However, geographical and temporal size distributions in Japan and temperature effects on size have not been established in this species. Here, we examined the geographical, temporal, and temperature-dependent changes of the forewing size of Z. maha argia in Japan. Butterflies collected in 2012 and 2013 from multiple prefectures throughout Japan demonstrated an inverse relationship of latitude and forewing size, which is the reverse of Bergmann’s cline. The Fukushima population was significantly larger than the Aomori and Miyagi populations and exhibited no difference from most of the other prefectural populations. When monitored at a single geographic locality every other month, forewing sizes were the largest in April and the smallest in August. Rearing larvae at a constant temperature demonstrated that forewing size followed the temperature-size rule. Therefore, the converse Bergmann’s rule and the temperature-size rule coexist in this multivoltine species. Our study establishes this species as a useful environmental indicator and supports the idea that the size reduction observed only in Fukushima Prefecture in 2011 was caused by the environmental stress of radioactive pollution. PMID:26197998

  15. Alu Evolution in Human Populations: Using the Coalescent to Estimate Effective Population Size

    PubMed Central

    Sherry, S. T.; Harpending, H. C.; Batzer, M. A.; Stoneking, M.

    1997-01-01

    There are estimated to be ~1000 members of the Ya5 Alu subfamily of retroposons in humans. This subfamily has a distribution restricted to humans, with a few copies in gorillas and chimpanzees. Fifty-seven Ya5 elements were previously cloned from a HeLa-derived randomly sheared total genomic library, sequenced, and screened for polymorphism in a panel of 120 unrelated humans. Forty-four of the 57 cloned Alu repeats were monomorphic in the sample and 13 Alu repeats were dimorphic for insertion presence/absence. The observed distribution of sample frequencies of the 13 dimorphic elements is consistent with the theoretical expectation for elements ascertained in a single diploid cell line. Coalescence theory is used to compute expected total pedigree branch lengths for monomorphic and dimorphic elements, leading to an estimate of human effective population size of ~18,000 during the last one to two million years. PMID:9409852

  16. Population size is weakly related to quantitative genetic variation and trait differentiation in a stream fish.

    PubMed

    Wood, Jacquelyn L A; Tezel, Defne; Joyal, Destin; Fraser, Dylan J

    2015-09-01

    How population size influences quantitative genetic variation and differentiation among natural, fragmented populations remains unresolved. Small, isolated populations might occupy poor quality habitats and lose genetic variation more rapidly due to genetic drift than large populations. Genetic drift might furthermore overcome selection as population size decreases. Collectively, this might result in directional changes in additive genetic variation (VA ) and trait differentiation (QST ) from small to large population size. Alternatively, small populations might exhibit larger variation in VA and QST if habitat fragmentation increases variability in habitat types. We explored these alternatives by investigating VA and QST using nine fragmented populations of brook trout varying 50-fold in census size N (179-8416) and 10-fold in effective number of breeders, Nb (18-135). Across 15 traits, no evidence was found for consistent differences in VA and QST with population size and almost no evidence for increased variability of VA or QST estimates at small population size. This suggests that (i) small populations of some species may retain adaptive potential according to commonly adopted quantitative genetic measures and (ii) populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions in nature, however extremely large studies are likely required before any firm conclusions can be made. PMID:26207947

  17. Power analysis to detect time trends on population-based cancer registries data: When size really matters.

    PubMed

    Zanetti, Roberto; Sera, Francesco; Sacchetto, Lidia; Coebergh, Jan Willem; Rosso, Stefano

    2015-06-01

    Detecting statistically significant trends in incidence with cancer registries data not only depends on the size of their covered population but also on the levels of incidence rates, duration of diagnostic period and type of temporal variation. We simulated sample sizes of newly diagnosed cases based on a variety of plausible levels of cancer rates and scenarios of changing trends over a period of about 30 years. Each simulated set of cases was then analysed with joinpoint regression models. The power was derived as the relative frequency of the simulation runs where the p-value of the coefficient was less than 0.05 under the alternative model. In case of a decreasing trend with no change of direction (join), an Annual Percentage Change (APC) of 1% for an average rate of 10 per 100,000 is detectable in populations of half a million inhabitants or more with a nominal power of 80%. In a model with one joinpoint followed by an increasing trend, the minimum detectable APC increases, and an APC of about 2%, can be detected only with populations of at least 2 million. For analyses requiring a larger sample size than the actual covered population, alternative organisational strategies should be considered, such as an extension of population coverage or data pooling and merging from registries with comparable data. (i.e. when heterogeneity across merging registries is low or acceptable for the specific study question). PMID:24239127

  18. Estimating population size of Pygoscelid Penguins from TM data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Olson, Charles E., Jr.; Schwaller, Mathew R.; Dahmer, Paul A.

    1987-01-01

    An estimate was made toward a continent wide population of penguins. The results indicate that Thematic Mapper data can be used to identify penguin rookeries due to the unique reflectance properties of guano. Strong correlations exist between nesting populations and rookery area occupied by the birds. These correlations allow estimation of the number of nesting pairs in colonies. The success of remote sensing and biometric analyses leads one to believe that a continent wide estimate of penguin populations is possible based on a timely sample employing ground based and remote sensing techniques. Satellite remote sensing along the coastline may well locate previously undiscovered penguin nesting sites, or locate rookeries which have been assumed to exist for over a half century, but never located. Observations which found that penguins are one of the most sensitive elements in the complex of Southern Ocean ecosystems motivated this study.

  19. Small population size and extremely low levels of genetic diversity in island populations of the platypus, Ornithorhynchus anatinus.

    PubMed

    Furlan, Elise; Stoklosa, J; Griffiths, J; Gust, N; Ellis, R; Huggins, R M; Weeks, A R

    2012-04-01

    Genetic diversity generally underpins population resilience and persistence. Reductions in population size and absence of gene flow can lead to reductions in genetic diversity, reproductive fitness, and a limited ability to adapt to environmental change increasing the risk of extinction. Island populations are typically small and isolated, and as a result, inbreeding and reduced genetic diversity elevate their extinction risk. Two island populations of the platypus, Ornithorhynchus anatinus, exist; a naturally occurring population on King Island in Bass Strait and a recently introduced population on Kangaroo Island off the coast of South Australia. Here we assessed the genetic diversity within these two island populations and contrasted these patterns with genetic diversity estimates in areas from which the populations are likely to have been founded. On Kangaroo Island, we also modeled live capture data to determine estimates of population size. Levels of genetic diversity in King Island platypuses are perilously low, with eight of 13 microsatellite loci fixed, likely reflecting their small population size and prolonged isolation. Estimates of heterozygosity detected by microsatellites (H(E)= 0.032) are among the lowest level of genetic diversity recorded by this method in a naturally outbreeding vertebrate population. In contrast, estimates of genetic diversity on Kangaroo Island are somewhat higher. However, estimates of small population size and the limited founders combined with genetic isolation are likely to lead to further losses of genetic diversity through time for the Kangaroo Island platypus population. Implications for the future of these and similarly isolated or genetically depauperate populations are discussed. PMID:22837830

  20. Population size of snowy plovers breeding in North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, Susan M.; Lyons, James E.; Andres, Brad A.; T-Smith, Elise Elliot; Palacios, Eduardo; Cavitt, John F.; Royle, J. Andrew; Fellows, Suzanne D.; Maty, Kendra; Howe, William H.; Mellink, Eric; Melvin, Stefani; Zimmerman, Tara

    2012-01-01

    Snowy Plovers (Charadrius nivosus) may be one of the rarest shorebirds in North America yet a comprehensive assessment of their abundance and distribution has not been completed. During 2007 and 2008, 557 discrete wetlands were surveyed and nine additional large wetland complexes sampled in México and the USA. From these surveys, a population of 23,555 (95% CI = 17,299 – 29,859) breeding Snowy Plovers was estimated. Combining the estimate with information from areas not surveyed, the total North American population was assessed at 25,869 (95% CI = 18,917 – 32,173). Approximately 42% of all breeding Snowy Plovers in North America resided at two sites (Great Salt Lake, Utah, and Salt Plains National Wildlife Refuge, Oklahoma), and 33% of all these were on wetlands in the Great Basin (including Great Salt Lake). Also, coastal habitats in central and southern Texas supported large numbers of breeding plovers. New breeding sites were discovered in interior deserts and highlands and along the Pacific coast of México; approximately 9% of the North American breeding population occurred in México. Because of uncertainties about effects of climate change and current stresses to breeding habitats, the species should be a management and conservation priority. Periodic monitoring should be undertaken at important sites to ensure high quality habitat is available to support the Snowy Plover population.

  1. Cohort Size and Migration in a West Indian Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brittain, Ann W.

    1990-01-01

    Data from St. Barthelemy (French West Indies) show that, for people born from 1878 to 1967, neither cohort size nor fluctuations in external demands for labor had a lasting effect on the probability of eventual migration. Emigration slowed only after development of local tourism brought prosperity to the island. (AF)

  2. Noninvasive genetics provides insights into the population size and genetic diversity of an Amur tiger population in China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Dan; Hu, Yibo; Ma, Tianxiao; Nie, Yonggang; Xie, Yan; Wei, Fuwen

    2016-01-01

    Understanding population size and genetic diversity is critical for effective conservation of endangered species. The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) is the largest felid and a flagship species for wildlife conservation. Due to habitat loss and human activities, available habitat and population size are continuously shrinking. However, little is known about the true population size and genetic diversity of wild tiger populations in China. In this study, we collected 55 fecal samples and 1 hair sample to investigate the population size and genetic diversity of wild Amur tigers in Hunchun National Nature Reserve, Jilin Province, China. From the samples, we determined that 23 fecal samples and 1 hair sample were from 7 Amur tigers: 2 males, 4 females and 1 individual of unknown sex. Interestingly, 2 fecal samples that were presumed to be from tigers were from Amur leopards, highlighting the significant advantages of noninvasive genetics over traditional methods in studying rare and elusive animals. Analyses from this sample suggested that the genetic diversity of wild Amur tigers is much lower than that of Bengal tigers, consistent with previous findings. Furthermore, the genetic diversity of this Hunchun population in China was lower than that of the adjoining subpopulation in southwest Primorye Russia, likely due to sampling bias. Considering the small population size and relatively low genetic diversity, it is urgent to protect this endangered local subpopulation in China. PMID:26663614

  3. The Relationship between the Proportional Size of the Special Education Population and Academic Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harper, Patricia Kenner

    2013-01-01

    This investigation addressed the hypothesized effects of the proportional size of a district's special education population on the overall student achievement in selected school districts in Texas. The size of a district's special education population (independent variable) was compared to districts' achievement (dependent…

  4. Estimating total population size for adult female sea turtles: Accounting for non-nesters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kendall, W.L.; Richardson, J.I.

    2008-01-01

    Assessment of population size and changes therein is important to sea turtle management and population or life history research. Investigators might be interested in testing hypotheses about the effect of current population size or density (number of animals per unit resource) on future population processes. Decision makers might want to determine a level of allowable take of individual turtles of specified life stage. Nevertheless, monitoring most stages of sea turtle life histories is difficult, because obtaining access to individuals is difficult. Although in-water assessments are becoming more common, nesting females and their hatchlings remain the most accessible life stages. In some cases adult females of a given nesting population are sufficiently philopatric that the population itself can be well defined. If a well designed tagging study is conducted on this population, survival, breeding probability, and the size of the nesting population in a given year can be estimated. However, with published statistical methodology the size of the entire breeding population (including those females skipping nesting in that year) cannot be estimated without assuming that each adult female in this population has the same probability of nesting in a given year (even those that had just nested in the previous year). We present a method for estimating the total size of a breeding population (including nesters those skipping nesting) from a tagging study limited to the nesting population, allowing for the probability of nesting in a given year to depend on an individual's nesting status in the previous year (i.e., a Markov process). From this we further develop estimators for rate of growth from year to year in both nesting population and total breeding population, and the proportion of the breeding population that is breeding in a given year. We also discuss assumptions and apply these methods to a breeding population of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) from

  5. A computer program for estimating fish population sizes and annual production rates

    SciTech Connect

    Railsback, S.F.; Holcomb, B.D.; Ryon, M.G.

    1989-10-01

    This report documents a program that estimates fish population sizes and annual production rates in small streams from multiple-pass sampling data. A maximum weighted likelihood method is used to estimate population sizes (Carle and Strub, 1978), and a size-frequency method is used to estimate production (Garman and Waters, 1983). The program performs the following steps: (1) reads in the data and performs error checking; (2) where required, uses length-weight regression to fill in missing weights; (3) assigns length classes to the fish; (4) for each date, species, and length class, estimates the population size and its variance; (5) for each date and species, estimates the total population size and its variance; and (6) for each species, estimates the annual production rate and its variance between sampling dates selected by the user. If data from only date are used, only populations are estimated. 9 refs.

  6. Does population size affect genetic diversity? A test with sympatric lizard species.

    PubMed

    Hague, M T J; Routman, E J

    2016-01-01

    Genetic diversity is a fundamental requirement for evolution and adaptation. Nonetheless, the forces that maintain patterns of genetic variation in wild populations are not completely understood. Neutral theory posits that genetic diversity will increase with a larger effective population size and the decreasing effects of drift. However, the lack of compelling evidence for a relationship between genetic diversity and population size in comparative studies has generated some skepticism over the degree that neutral sequence evolution drives overall patterns of diversity. The goal of this study was to measure genetic diversity among sympatric populations of related lizard species that differ in population size and other ecological factors. By sampling related species from a single geographic location, we aimed to reduce nuisance variance in genetic diversity owing to species differences, for example, in mutation rates or historical biogeography. We compared populations of zebra-tailed lizards and western banded geckos, which are abundant and short-lived, to chuckwallas and desert iguanas, which are less common and long-lived. We assessed population genetic diversity at three protein-coding loci for each species. Our results were consistent with the predictions of neutral theory, as the abundant species almost always had higher levels of haplotype diversity than the less common species. Higher population genetic diversity in the abundant species is likely due to a combination of demographic factors, including larger local population sizes (and presumably effective population sizes), faster generation times and high rates of gene flow with other populations. PMID:26306730

  7. Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk.

    PubMed

    Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

    2016-01-01

    The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation. PMID:26986004

  8. Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador: Geographic Distribution, Population Size and Extinction Risk

    PubMed Central

    Naveda-Rodríguez, Adrián; Vargas, Félix Hernán; Kohn, Sebastián; Zapata-Ríos, Galo

    2016-01-01

    The Andean Condor (Vultur gryphus) in Ecuador is classified as Critically Endangered. Before 2015, standardized and systematic estimates of geographic distribution, population size and structure were not available for this species, hampering the assessment of its current status and hindering the design and implementation of effective conservation actions. In this study, we performed the first quantitative assessment of geographic distribution, population size and population viability of Andean Condor in Ecuador. We used a methodological approach that included an ecological niche model to study geographic distribution, a simultaneous survey of 70 roosting sites to estimate population size and a population viability analysis (PVA) for the next 100 years. Geographic distribution in the form of extent of occurrence was 49 725 km2. During a two-day census, 93 Andean Condors were recorded and a population of 94 to 102 individuals was estimated. In this population, adult-to-immature ratio was 1:0.5. In the modeled PVA scenarios, the probability of extinction, mean time to extinction and minimum population size varied from zero to 100%, 63 years and 193 individuals, respectively. Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the conservation of Andean Condor populations in Ecuador. Population size reduction in scenarios that included habitat loss began within the first 15 years of this threat. Population reinforcement had no effects on the recovery of Andean Condor populations given the current status of the species in Ecuador. The population size estimate presented in this study is the lower than those reported previously in other countries where the species occur. The inferences derived from the population viability analysis have implications for Condor management in Ecuador. This study highlights the need to redirect efforts from captive breeding and population reinforcement to habitat conservation. PMID:26986004

  9. Big Feet: Assessing the Current and Future Impact of Population Size on a Country's Ecological Footprint

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hogg, R. S.; Takaro, T.; Miller, C.; Hogg, E.; Anema, A.; Gislason, M.; Parkes, M.

    2015-12-01

    Background: Ecological footprints assess the land and water a population needs to procure its resources and handle its waste. Measures derived from these footprints look at a population's ecological overshoot rather than weighting the population to its footprint. The aim of this study was to examine the latter approach by determining what the current and future weighted world population, by income gradient, would be if everyone lived within the boundary of 1.8 hectares per person. Methods: Country-specific ecological footprints and populations for 2007 were obtained from the Global Footprint Network (www.footprintnetwork.org); and projected populations were collected from US Census Bureau (www.census.gov). Footprint growth to 2050 was based on a business as usual approach developed by Kitzes et al. in Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B (2008). Weighted population estimates were derived by multiplying actual population by the ratio of the country's footprint to overall boundary of 1.8 hectares per person. Results: The weighted global population increased by 2.4 billion people (37%) in 2007 based on our adjustment. High and middle-income country populations increased, by 242% and 10%, respectively, while low-income country populations decreased by 33%. The weighed global population in 2050 increased by 10.1 billion with the majority of this growth occurring in high-income countries -- 437% versus 67% and 9% respectively for medium and low-income countries. Conclusions: Our study showed that current and future global weighted demographic and ecological impact would be felt mainly in high-income countries even though actual population growth would occur mainly in low and middle-income countries.

  10. Genome size differentiates co-occurring populations of the planktonic diatom Ditylum brightwellii (Bacillariophyta)

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Diatoms are one of the most species-rich groups of eukaryotic microbes known. Diatoms are also the only group of eukaryotic micro-algae with a diplontic life history, suggesting that the ancestral diatom switched to a life history dominated by a duplicated genome. A key mechanism of speciation among diatoms could be a propensity for additional stable genome duplications. Across eukaryotic taxa, genome size is directly correlated to cell size and inversely correlated to physiological rates. Differences in relative genome size, cell size, and acclimated growth rates were analyzed in isolates of the diatom Ditylum brightwellii. Ditylum brightwellii consists of two main populations with identical 18s rDNA sequences; one population is distributed globally at temperate latitudes and the second appears to be localized to the Pacific Northwest coast of the USA. These two populations co-occur within the Puget Sound estuary of WA, USA, although their peak abundances differ depending on local conditions. Results All isolates from the more regionally-localized population (population 2) possessed 1.94 ± 0.74 times the amount of DNA, grew more slowly, and were generally larger than isolates from the more globally distributed population (population 1). The ITS1 sequences, cell sizes, and genome sizes of isolates from New Zealand were the same as population 1 isolates from Puget Sound, but their growth rates were within the range of the slower-growing population 2 isolates. Importantly, the observed genome size difference between isolates from the two populations was stable regardless of time in culture or the changes in cell size that accompany the diatom life history. Conclusions The observed two-fold difference in genome size between the D. brightwellii populations suggests that whole genome duplication occurred within cells of population 1 ultimately giving rise to population 2 cells. The apparent regional localization of population 2 is consistent with a recent

  11. The adaptive significance of population differentiation in offspring size of the least killifish, Heterandria formosa

    PubMed Central

    Leips, Jeff; Helen Rodd, F; Travis, Joseph

    2013-01-01

    We tested the hypothesis that density-dependent competition influences the evolution of offspring size. We studied two populations of the least killifish (Heterandria formosa) that differ dramatically in population density; these populations are genetically differentiated for offspring size, and females from both populations produce larger offspring when they experience higher social densities. To look at the influences of population of origin and relative body size on competitive ability, we held females from the high-density population at two different densities to create large and small offspring with the same genetic background. We measured the competitive ability of those offspring in mesocosms that contained either pure or mixed population treatments at either high or low density. High density increased competition, which was most evident in greatly reduced individual growth rates. Larger offspring from the high-density population significantly delayed the onset of maturity of fish from the low-density population. From our results, we infer that competitive conditions in nature have contributed to the evolution of genetically based interpopulation differences in offspring size as well as plasticity in offspring size in response to conspecific density. PMID:23610636

  12. Utility of Microcosm Studies for Predicting Phylloplane Bacterium Population Sizes in the Field

    PubMed Central

    Kinkel, L. L.; Wilson, M.; Lindow, S. E.

    1996-01-01

    Population sizes of two ice nucleation-active strains of Pseudomonas syringae were compared on leaves in controlled environments and in the field to determine the ability of microcosm studies to predict plant habitat preferences in the field. The P. syringae strains investigated were the parental strains of recombinant deletion mutant strains deficient in ice nucleation activity that had been field tested for their ability to control plant frost injury. The population size of the P. syringae strains was measured after inoculation at three field locations on up to 40 of the same plant species that were studied in the growth chamber. There was seldom a significant relationship between the mean population size of a given P. syringae strain incubated under either wet or dry conditions in microcosms and the mean population size which could be recovered from the same species when inoculated in the field. Specifically, on some plant species, the population size recovered from leaves in the field was substantially greater than from that species in a controlled environment, while for other plant species field populations were significantly smaller than those observed under controlled conditions. Population sizes of inoculated P. syringae strains, however, were frequently highly positively correlated with the indigenous bacterial population size on the same plant species in the field, suggesting that the ability of a particular plant species to support introduced bacterial strains is correlated with its ability to support large bacterial populations or that indigenous bacteria enhance the survival of introduced strains. Microcosm studies therefore seem most effective at assessing possible differences between parental and recombinant strains under a given environmental regime but are limited in their ability to predict the specific population sizes or plant habitat preferences of bacteria on leaves under field conditions. PMID:16535405

  13. Reductive genome evolution at both ends of the bacterial population size spectrum.

    PubMed

    Batut, Bérénice; Knibbe, Carole; Marais, Gabriel; Daubin, Vincent

    2014-12-01

    Bacterial genomes show substantial variations in size. The smallest bacterial genomes are those of endocellular symbionts of eukaryotic hosts, which have undergone massive genome reduction and show patterns that are consistent with the degenerative processes that are predicted to occur in species with small effective population sizes. However, similar genome reduction is found in some free-living marine cyanobacteria that are characterized by extremely large populations. In this Opinion article, we discuss the different hypotheses that have been proposed to account for this reductive genome evolution at both ends of the bacterial population size spectrum. PMID:25220308

  14. Early HAART Initiation May Not Reduce Actual Reproduction Number and Prevalence of MSM Infection: Perspectives from Coupled within- and between-Host Modelling Studies of Chinese MSM Populations

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xiaodan; Xiao, Yanni; Tang, Sanyi; Peng, Zhihang; Wu, Jianhong; Wang, Ning

    2016-01-01

    Having a thorough understanding of the infectivity of HIV, time of initiating treatment and emergence of drug resistant virus variants is crucial in mitigating HIV infection. There are many challenges to evaluating the long-term effect of the Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) on disease transmission at the population level. We proposed an individual based model by coupling within-host dynamics and between-host dynamics and conduct stochastic simulation in the group of men who have sex with men (MSM). The mean actual reproduction number is estimated to be 3.6320 (95% confidence interval: [3.46, 3.80]) for MSM group without treatment. Stochastic simulations show that given relatively high (low) level of drug efficacy after emergence of drug resistant variants, early initiation of treatment leads to a less (greater) actual reproduction number, lower (higher) prevalence and less (more) incidences, compared to late initiation of treatment. This implies early initiation of HAART may not always lower the actual reproduction number and prevalence of infection, depending on the level of treatment efficacy after emergence of drug resistant virus variants, frequency of high-risk behaviors and etc. This finding strongly suggests early initiation of HAART should be implemented with great care especially in the settings where the effective drugs are limited. Coupling within-host dynamics with between-host dynamics can provide critical information about impact of HAART on disease transmission and thus help to assist treatment strategy design and HIV/AIDS prevention and control. PMID:26930406

  15. Model-Based Predictions of the Effects of Harvest Mortality on Population Size and Trend of Yellow-Billed Loons

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schmutz, Joel A.

    2009-01-01

    Yellow-billed loons (Gavia adamsii) breed in low densities in northern tundra habitats in Alaska, Canada, and Russia. They migrate to coastal marine habitats at mid to high latitudes where they spend their winters. Harvest may occur throughout the annual cycle, but of particular concern are recent reports of harvest from the Bering Strait region, which lies between Alaska and Russia and is an area used by yellow-billed loons during migration. Annual harvest for this region was reported to be 317, 45, and 1,077 during 2004, 2005, and 2007, respectively. I developed a population model to assess the effect of this reported harvest on population size and trend of yellow-billed loons. Because of the uncertainty regarding actual harvest and definition of the breeding population(s) affected by this harvest, I considered 25 different scenarios. Predicted trends across these 25 scenarios ranged from stability to rapid decline (24 percent per year) with halving of the population in 3 years. Through an assessment of literature and unpublished satellite tracking data, I suggest that the most likely of these 25 scenarios is one where the migrant population subjected to harvest in the Bering Strait includes individuals from breeding populations in Alaska (Arctic coastal plain and the Kotzebue region) and eastern Russia, and for which the magnitude of harvest varies among years and emulates the annual variation of reported harvest during 2004-07 (317, 45, and 1,077 yellow-billed loons). This scenario, which assumes no movement of Canadian breeders through the Bering Strait, predicts a 4.6 percent rate of annual population decline, which would halve the populations in 15 years. Although these model outputs reflect the best available information, confidence in these predictions and applicable scenarios would be greatly enhanced by more information on harvest, rates of survival and reproduction, and migratory pathways.

  16. The evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting extends from genes to populations.

    PubMed

    Uusi-Heikkilä, Silva; Whiteley, Andrew R; Kuparinen, Anna; Matsumura, Shuichi; Venturelli, Paul A; Wolter, Christian; Slate, Jon; Primmer, Craig R; Meinelt, Thomas; Killen, Shaun S; Bierbach, David; Polverino, Giovanni; Ludwig, Arne; Arlinghaus, Robert

    2015-07-01

    Size-selective harvesting is assumed to alter life histories of exploited fish populations, thereby negatively affecting population productivity, recovery, and yield. However, demonstrating that fisheries-induced phenotypic changes in the wild are at least partly genetically determined has proved notoriously difficult. Moreover, the population-level consequences of fisheries-induced evolution are still being controversially discussed. Using an experimental approach, we found that five generations of size-selective harvesting altered the life histories and behavior, but not the metabolic rate, of wild-origin zebrafish (Danio rerio). Fish adapted to high positively size selective fishing pressure invested more in reproduction, reached a smaller adult body size, and were less explorative and bold. Phenotypic changes seemed subtle but were accompanied by genetic changes in functional loci. Thus, our results provided unambiguous evidence for rapid, harvest-induced phenotypic and evolutionary change when harvesting is intensive and size selective. According to a life-history model, the observed life-history changes elevated population growth rate in harvested conditions, but slowed population recovery under a simulated moratorium. Hence, the evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting includes populations that are productive under exploited conditions, but selectively disadvantaged to cope with natural selection pressures that often favor large body size. PMID:26136825

  17. The evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting extends from genes to populations

    PubMed Central

    Uusi-Heikkilä, Silva; Whiteley, Andrew R; Kuparinen, Anna; Matsumura, Shuichi; Venturelli, Paul A; Wolter, Christian; Slate, Jon; Primmer, Craig R; Meinelt, Thomas; Killen, Shaun S; Bierbach, David; Polverino, Giovanni; Ludwig, Arne; Arlinghaus, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Size-selective harvesting is assumed to alter life histories of exploited fish populations, thereby negatively affecting population productivity, recovery, and yield. However, demonstrating that fisheries-induced phenotypic changes in the wild are at least partly genetically determined has proved notoriously difficult. Moreover, the population-level consequences of fisheries-induced evolution are still being controversially discussed. Using an experimental approach, we found that five generations of size-selective harvesting altered the life histories and behavior, but not the metabolic rate, of wild-origin zebrafish (Danio rerio). Fish adapted to high positively size selective fishing pressure invested more in reproduction, reached a smaller adult body size, and were less explorative and bold. Phenotypic changes seemed subtle but were accompanied by genetic changes in functional loci. Thus, our results provided unambiguous evidence for rapid, harvest-induced phenotypic and evolutionary change when harvesting is intensive and size selective. According to a life-history model, the observed life-history changes elevated population growth rate in harvested conditions, but slowed population recovery under a simulated moratorium. Hence, the evolutionary legacy of size-selective harvesting includes populations that are productive under exploited conditions, but selectively disadvantaged to cope with natural selection pressures that often favor large body size. PMID:26136825

  18. The effect of fragment shape and species' sensitivity to habitat edges on animal population size.

    PubMed

    Ewers, Robert M; Didham, Raphael K

    2007-08-01

    Habitat fragmentation causes extinction of local animal populations by decreasing the amount of viable "core" habitat area and increasing edge effects. It is widely accepted that larger fragments make better nature reserves because core-dwelling species have a larger amount of suitable habitat. Nevertheless, fragments in real landscapes have complex, irregular shapes. We modeled the population sizes of species that have a representative range of preferences for or aversions to habitat edges at five spatial scales (within 10, 32, 100, 320, and 1000 m of an edge) in a nation-wide analysis of forest remnants in New Zealand. We hypothesized that the irregular shapes of fragments in real landscapes should generate statistically significant correlations between population density and fragment area, purely as a "geometric" effect of varying species responses to the distribution of edge habitat. Irregularly shaped fragments consistently reduced the population size of core-dwelling species by 10-100%, depending on the scale over which species responded to habitat edges. Moreover, core populations within individual fragments were spatially discontinuous, containing multiple, disjunct populations that inhabited small spatial areas and had reduced population size. The geometric effect was highly nonlinear and depended on the range of fragment sizes sampled and the scale at which species responded to habitat edges. Fragment shape played a strong role in determining population size in fragmented landscapes; thus, habitat restoration efforts may be more effective if they focus on connecting disjunct cores rather than isolated fragments. PMID:17650243

  19. Influence of habitat quality, population size, patch size, and connectivity on patch-occupancy dynamics of the middle spotted woodpecker.

    PubMed

    Robles, Hugo; Ciudad, Carlos

    2012-04-01

    Despite extensive research on the effects of habitat fragmentation, the ecological mechanisms underlying colonization and extinction processes are poorly known, but knowledge of these mechanisms is essential to understanding the distribution and persistence of populations in fragmented habitats. We examined these mechanisms through multiseason occupancy models that elucidated patch-occupancy dynamics of Middle Spotted Woodpeckers (Dendrocopos medius) in northwestern Spain. The number of occupied patches was relatively stable from 2000 to 2010 (15-24% of 101 patches occupied every year) because extinction was balanced by recolonization. Larger and higher quality patches (i.e., higher density of oaks >37 cm dbh [diameter at breast height]) were more likely to be occupied. Habitat quality (i.e., density of large oaks) explained more variation in patch colonization and extinction than did patch size and connectivity, which were both weakly associated with probabilities of turnover. Patches of higher quality were more likely to be colonized than patches of lower quality. Populations in high-quality patches were less likely to become extinct. In addition, extinction in a patch was strongly associated with local population size but not with patch size, which means the latter may not be a good surrogate of population size in assessments of extinction probability. Our results suggest that habitat quality may be a primary driver of patch-occupancy dynamics and may increase the accuracy of models of population survival. We encourage comparisons of competing models that assess occupancy, colonization, and extinction probabilities in a single analytical framework (e.g., dynamic occupancy models) so as to shed light on the association of habitat quality and patch geometry with colonization and extinction processes in different settings and species. PMID:22268847

  20. Population size influences amphibian detection probability: implications for biodiversity monitoring programs.

    PubMed

    Tanadini, Lorenzo G; Schmidt, Benedikt R

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring is an integral part of species conservation. Monitoring programs must take imperfect detection of species into account in order to be reliable. Theory suggests that detection probability may be determined by population size but this relationship has not yet been assessed empirically. Population size is particularly important because it may induce heterogeneity in detection probability and thereby cause bias in estimates of biodiversity. We used a site occupancy model to analyse data from a volunteer-based amphibian monitoring program to assess how well different variables explain variation in detection probability. An index to population size best explained detection probabilities for four out of six species (to avoid circular reasoning, we used the count of individuals at a previous site visit as an index to current population size). The relationship between the population index and detection probability was positive. Commonly used weather variables best explained detection probabilities for two out of six species. Estimates of site occupancy probabilities differed depending on whether the population index was or was not used to model detection probability. The relationship between the population index and detectability has implications for the design of monitoring and species conservation. Most importantly, because many small populations are likely to be overlooked, monitoring programs should be designed in such a way that small populations are not overlooked. The results also imply that methods cannot be standardized in such a way that detection probabilities are constant. As we have shown here, one can easily account for variation in population size in the analysis of data from long-term monitoring programs by using counts of individuals from surveys at the same site in previous years. Accounting for variation in population size is important because it can affect the results of long-term monitoring programs and ultimately the conservation of

  1. Estimation of the size of the female sex worker population in Rwanda using three different methods.

    PubMed

    Mutagoma, Mwumvaneza; Kayitesi, Catherine; Gwiza, Aimé; Ruton, Hinda; Koleros, Andrew; Gupta, Neil; Balisanga, Helene; Riedel, David J; Nsanzimana, Sabin

    2015-10-01

    HIV prevalence is disproportionately high among female sex workers compared to the general population. Many African countries lack useful data on the size of female sex worker populations to inform national HIV programmes. A female sex worker size estimation exercise using three different venue-based methodologies was conducted among female sex workers in all provinces of Rwanda in August 2010. The female sex worker national population size was estimated using capture-recapture and enumeration methods, and the multiplier method was used to estimate the size of the female sex worker population in Kigali. A structured questionnaire was also used to supplement the data. The estimated number of female sex workers by the capture-recapture method was 3205 (95% confidence interval: 2998-3412). The female sex worker size was estimated at 3348 using the enumeration method. In Kigali, the female sex worker size was estimated at 2253 (95% confidence interval: 1916-2524) using the multiplier method. Nearly 80% of all female sex workers in Rwanda were found to be based in the capital, Kigali. This study provided a first-time estimate of the female sex worker population size in Rwanda using capture-recapture, enumeration, and multiplier methods. The capture-recapture and enumeration methods provided similar estimates of female sex worker in Rwanda. Combination of such size estimation methods is feasible and productive in low-resource settings and should be considered vital to inform national HIV programmes. PMID:25336306

  2. Two-Locus Likelihoods Under Variable Population Size and Fine-Scale Recombination Rate Estimation.

    PubMed

    Kamm, John A; Spence, Jeffrey P; Chan, Jeffrey; Song, Yun S

    2016-07-01

    Two-locus sampling probabilities have played a central role in devising an efficient composite-likelihood method for estimating fine-scale recombination rates. Due to mathematical and computational challenges, these sampling probabilities are typically computed under the unrealistic assumption of a constant population size, and simulation studies have shown that resulting recombination rate estimates can be severely biased in certain cases of historical population size changes. To alleviate this problem, we develop here new methods to compute the sampling probability for variable population size functions that are piecewise constant. Our main theoretical result, implemented in a new software package called LDpop, is a novel formula for the sampling probability that can be evaluated by numerically exponentiating a large but sparse matrix. This formula can handle moderate sample sizes ([Formula: see text]) and demographic size histories with a large number of epochs ([Formula: see text]). In addition, LDpop implements an approximate formula for the sampling probability that is reasonably accurate and scales to hundreds in sample size ([Formula: see text]). Finally, LDpop includes an importance sampler for the posterior distribution of two-locus genealogies, based on a new result for the optimal proposal distribution in the variable-size setting. Using our methods, we study how a sharp population bottleneck followed by rapid growth affects the correlation between partially linked sites. Then, through an extensive simulation study, we show that accounting for population size changes under such a demographic model leads to substantial improvements in fine-scale recombination rate estimation. PMID:27182948

  3. Temporal Variation in Population Size of European Bird Species: Effects of Latitude and Marginality of Distribution

    PubMed Central

    Cuervo, José J.; Møller, Anders P.

    2013-01-01

    In the Northern Hemisphere, global warming has been shown to affect animal populations in different ways, with southern populations in general suffering more from increased temperatures than northern populations of the same species. However, southern populations are also often marginal populations relative to the entire breeding range, and marginality may also have negative effects on populations. To disentangle the effects of latitude (possibly due to global warming) and marginality on temporal variation in population size, we investigated European breeding bird species across a latitudinal gradient. Population size estimates were regressed on years, and from these regressions we obtained the slope (a proxy for population trend) and the standard error of the estimate (SEE) (a proxy for population fluctuations). The possible relationships between marginality or latitude on one hand and slopes or SEE on the other were tested among populations within species. Potentially confounding factors such as census method, sampling effort, density-dependence, habitat fragmentation and number of sampling years were controlled statistically. Population latitude was positively related to regression slopes independent of marginality, with more positive slopes (i.e., trends) in northern than in southern populations. The degree of marginality was positively related to SEE independent of latitude, with marginal populations showing larger SEE (i.e., fluctuations) than central ones. Regression slopes were also significantly related to our estimate of density-dependence and SEE was significantly affected by the census method. These results are consistent with a scenario in which southern and northern populations of European bird species are negatively affected by marginality, with southern populations benefitting less from global warming than northern populations, thus potentially making southern populations more vulnerable to extinction. PMID:24147048

  4. Joint effects of population size and isolation on genetic erosion in fragmented populations: finding fragmentation thresholds for management

    PubMed Central

    Méndez, María; Vögeli, Matthias; Tella, José L; Godoy, José A

    2014-01-01

    Size and isolation of local populations are main parameters of interest when assessing the genetic consequences of habitat fragmentation. However, their relative influence on the genetic erosion of local populations remains unclear. In this study, we first analysed how size and isolation of habitat patches influence the genetic variation of local populations of the Dupont's lark (Chersophilus duponti), an endangered songbird. An information-theoretic approach to model selection allowed us to address the importance of interactions between habitat variables, an aspect seldom considered in fragmentation studies, but which explained up to 65% of the variance in genetic parameters. Genetic diversity and inbreeding were influenced by the size of local populations depending on their degree of isolation, and genetic differentiation was positively related to isolation. We then identified a minimum local population of 19 male territories and a maximum distance of 30 km to the nearest population as thresholds from which genetic erosion becomes apparent. Our results alert on possibly misleading conclusions and suboptimal management recommendations when only additive effects are taken into account and encourage the use of most explanatory but easy-to-measure variables for the evaluation of genetic risks in conservation programmes. PMID:24822084

  5. Cranioplasty for Large-Sized Calvarial Defects in the Pediatric Population: A Review

    PubMed Central

    Lam, Sandi; Kuether, Justin; Fong, Abigail; Reid, Russell

    2014-01-01

    Large-sized calvarial defects in pediatric patients pose a reconstructive challenge because of children's unique physiology, developing anatomy, and dynamic growth. We review the current literature and outcomes with autologous and alloplastic cranioplasty in the pediatric population. PMID:26000090

  6. First molar size and wear within and among modern hunter-gatherers and agricultural populations.

    PubMed

    Górka, Katarzyna; Romero, Alejandro; Pérez-Pérez, Alejandro

    2015-08-01

    Apart from reflecting modern human dental variation, differences in dental size among populations provide a means for studying continuous evolutionary processes and their mechanisms. Dental wear, on the other hand, has been widely used to infer dietary adaptations and variability among or within diverse ancient human populations. Few such studies have focused on modern foragers and farmers, however, and diverse methods have been used. This research aimed to apply a single, standardized, and systematic quantitative procedure to measure dental size and dentin exposure in order to analyze differences among several hunter-gatherer and agricultural populations from various environments and geographic origins. In particular, we focused on sexual dimorphism and intergroup differences in the upper and lower first molars. Results indicated no sexual dimorphism in molar size and wear within the studied populations. Despite the great ethnographic variation in subsistence strategies among these populations, our findings suggest that differences in sexual division of labor do not affect dietary wear patterns. PMID:26032341

  7. Modeling of LEO Orbital Debris Populations in Centimeter and Millimeter Size Regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xu, Y.-L.; Hill, . M.; Horstman, M.; Krisko, P. H.; Liou, J.-C.; Matney, M.; Stansbery, E. G.

    2010-01-01

    The building of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, whether ORDEM2000 or its recently updated version ORDEM2010, uses as its foundation a number of model debris populations, each truncated at a minimum object-size ranging from 10 micron to 1 m. This paper discusses the development of the ORDEM2010 model debris populations in LEO (low Earth orbit), focusing on centimeter (smaller than 10 cm) and millimeter size regimes. Primary data sets used in the statistical derivation of the cm- and mm-size model populations are from the Haystack radar operated in a staring mode. Unlike cataloged objects of sizes greater than approximately 10 cm, ground-based radars monitor smaller-size debris only in a statistical manner instead of tracking every piece. The mono-static Haystack radar can detect debris as small as approximately 5 mm at moderate LEO altitudes. Estimation of millimeter debris populations (for objects smaller than approximately 6 mm) rests largely on Goldstone radar measurements. The bi-static Goldstone radar can detect 2- to 3-mm objects. The modeling of the cm- and mm-debris populations follows the general approach to developing other ORDEM2010-required model populations for various components and types of debris. It relies on appropriate reference populations to provide necessary prior information on the orbital structures and other important characteristics of the debris objects. NASA's LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris (LEGEND) model is capable of furnishing such reference populations in the desired size range. A Bayesian statistical inference process, commonly adopted in ORDEM2010 model-population derivations, changes a priori distribution into a posteriori distribution and thus refines the reference populations in terms of data. This paper describes key elements and major steps in the statistical derivations of the cm- and mm-size debris populations and presents results. Due to lack of data for near 1-mm sizes, the model populations of 1- to 3.16-mm

  8. Diversification Rates Increase With Population Size and Resource Concentration in an Unstructured Habitat

    PubMed Central

    Stevens, M. H. H.; Sanchez, M.; Lee, J.; Finkel, S. E.

    2007-01-01

    Understanding the mechanisms controlling the generation and maintenance of biodiversity provides some of the planet's greatest and most pressing challenges. Variation in resource concentration, which varies widely at multiple scales, may cause biodiversity to increase, decrease, or exhibit a unimodal response and underlying mechanisms remain obscure. We established experimental cultures of long-term stationary phase (LTSP) Escherichia coli to test whether per capita heterozygosity varies with resource concentration, and, if so, whether population sizes associated with different resource concentrations contributed to these patterns. Our results provide the clearest example to date of increasing per capita heterozygosity with increasing resource concentration. Further, our experimental manipulations of population size, independent of resource concentration, provide the first unequivocal evidence that population size is one of the underlying factors controlling per capita heterozygosity along such resource gradients. Specifically, we show that cultures with higher maximum population sizes, associated with higher resource concentrations, have higher per capita heterozygosity. These experiments provide the first experimental evidence for an underappreciated factor controlling biodiversity along resource gradients—population size. This direct evidence of population size influencing diversification rates has implications for regional and global scale patterns of biodiversity. PMID:18073429

  9. Statistical Estimation of Orbital Debris Populations with a Spectrum of Object Size

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xu, Y. -l; Horstman, M.; Krisko, P. H.; Liou, J. -C; Matney, M.; Stansbery, E. G.; Stokely, C. L.; Whitlock, D.

    2008-01-01

    Orbital debris is a real concern for the safe operations of satellites. In general, the hazard of debris impact is a function of the size and spatial distributions of the debris populations. To describe and characterize the debris environment as reliably as possible, the current NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2000) is being upgraded to a new version based on new and better quality data. The data-driven ORDEM model covers a wide range of object sizes from 10 microns to greater than 1 meter. This paper reviews the statistical process for the estimation of the debris populations in the new ORDEM upgrade, and discusses the representation of large-size (greater than or equal to 1 m and greater than or equal to 10 cm) populations by SSN catalog objects and the validation of the statistical approach. Also, it presents results for the populations with sizes of greater than or equal to 3.3 cm, greater than or equal to 1 cm, greater than or equal to 100 micrometers, and greater than or equal to 10 micrometers. The orbital debris populations used in the new version of ORDEM are inferred from data based upon appropriate reference (or benchmark) populations instead of the binning of the multi-dimensional orbital-element space. This paper describes all of the major steps used in the population-inference procedure for each size-range. Detailed discussions on data analysis, parameter definition, the correlation between parameters and data, and uncertainty assessment are included.

  10. Rapid estimation of Aedes aegypti population size using simulation modeling, with a novel approach to calibration and field validation.

    PubMed

    Williams, Craig R; Johnson, Petrina H; Long, Sharron A; Rapley, Luke P; Ritchie, Scott A

    2008-11-01

    New approaches for control of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti (L.) are being developed, including the potential introduction of life-shortening symbiont bacteria into field populations and the release of transgenic strains with reduced vector competency. With these new approaches comes the need for rapid estimations of existing field population size. Here, we describe the use of simulation modeling with container-inhabiting mosquito simulation (CIMSiM) for estimation of Ae. aegypti pupal crop size in north Queensland, Australia. CIMSiM was calibrated for local conditions by deploying "sentinel key containers" (tire, 2-liter plastic bucket, 0.6-liter pot plant base, and tarpaulin indentation) in which water flux and pupal productivity were studied for 72 d. Iterative adjustment of CIMSiM parameters was used to fit model outputs to match that of sentinel key containers. This calibrated model was then used in a blind field validation, in which breeding container and local meteorological data were used to populate CIMSiM, and model outputs were compared with a field pupal survey. Actual pupae per ha during two 10-d periods in 2007 fell within 95% confidence intervals of simulated pupal crop estimates made by 10 replicate simulations in CIMSiM, thus providing a successful field validation. Although the stochasticity of the field environment can never be wholly simulated, CIMSiM can provide field-validated estimates of pupal crop in a timely manner by using simple container surveys. PMID:19058645

  11. Man in Balance with the Environment: Pollution and the Optimal Population Size

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ultsch, Gordon R.

    1973-01-01

    Discusses the relationship between population size and pollution, and suggests that the optimal population level toward which we should strive would be that level at which man is in balance with the biosphere in terms of pollution production and degradation, coupled with a harmless steady-state background pollution level. (JR)

  12. Effective population size of an indigenous Swiss cattle breed estimated from linkage disequilibrium

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Effective population size is an important parameter for the assessment of genetic diversity within a livestock population and its development over time. If pedigree information is not available, linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis might offer an alternative perspective for the estimation of effecti...

  13. Population Size and Suicide in U.S. Cities: A Static and Dynamic Exploration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCall, Patricia L.; Tittle, Charles R.

    2007-01-01

    The relationship between city population size and suicide rates rarely has been examined directly, though scholars often assume such a relationship exists based on studies of the association between suicide rates and urbanization (percent of the population living in cities) in various social contexts. In an effort to determine the basic…

  14. People of New Mexico: Size, Growth and Hispanic Population from the 1980 Census. Research Report 482.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Williams, James D.

    New Mexico, while small, is a state of great diversity in terms of size, growth, and Hispanic concentration of population. Data from the 1980 census indicate New Mexico is the 37th largest state with slightly more than 1.3 million persons and is ninth among the states in percentage of population growth. Growth comes from two demographic sources:…

  15. Demographic population model for American shad: will access to additional habitat upstream of dams increase population sizes?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, Julianne E.; Hightower, Joseph E.

    2012-01-01

    American shad Alosa sapidissima are in decline in their native range, and modeling possible management scenarios could help guide their restoration. We developed a density-dependent, deterministic, stage-based matrix model to predict the population-level results of transporting American shad to suitable spawning habitat upstream of dams on the Roanoke River, North Carolina and Virginia. We used data on sonic-tagged adult American shad and oxytetracycline-marked American shad fry both above and below dams on the Roanoke River with information from other systems to estimate a starting population size and vital rates. We modeled the adult female population over 30 years under plausible scenarios of adult transport, effective fecundity (egg production), and survival of adults (i.e., to return to spawn the next year) and juveniles (from spawned egg to age 1). We also evaluated the potential effects of increased survival for adults and juveniles. The adult female population size in the Roanoke River was estimated to be 5,224. With no transport, the model predicted a slow population increase over the next 30 years. Predicted population increases were highest when survival was improved during the first year of life. Transport was predicted to benefit the population only if high rates of effective fecundity and juvenile survival could be achieved. Currently, transported adults and young are less likely to successfully out-migrate than individuals below the dams, and the estimated adult population size is much smaller than either of two assumed values of carrying capacity for the lower river; therefore, transport is not predicted to help restore the stock under present conditions. Research on survival rates, density-dependent processes, and the impacts of structures to increase out-migration success would improve evaluation of the potential benefits of access to additional spawning habitat for American shad.

  16. Combined CFD/Population Balance Model for Gas Hydrate Particle Size Prediction in Turbulent Pipeline Flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balakin, Boris V.; Hoffmann, Alex C.; Kosinski, Pawel; Istomin, Vladimir A.; Chuvilin, Evgeny M.

    2010-09-01

    A combined computational fluid dynamics/population balance model (CFD-PBM) is developed for gas hydrate particle size prediction in turbulent pipeline flow. The model is based on a one-moment population balance technique, which is coupled with flow field parameters computed using commercial CFD software. The model is calibrated with a five-moment, off-line population balance model and validated with experimental data produced in a low-pressure multiphase flow loop.

  17. Population variation and individual maximum size in two leech populations: energy extraction from cannibalism or niche widening?

    PubMed

    Persson, Lennart; Elliott, J Malcolm

    2013-05-01

    The theory of cannibal dynamics predicts a link between population dynamics and individual life history. In particular, increased individual growth has, in both modeling and empirical studies, been shown to result from a destabilization of population dynamics. We used data from a long-term study of the dynamics of two leech (Erpobdella octoculata) populations to test the hypothesis that maximum size should be higher in a cycling population; one of the study populations exhibited a delayed feedback cycle while the other population showed no sign of cyclicity. A hump-shaped relationship between individual mass of 1-year-old leeches and offspring density the previous year was present in both populations. As predicted from the theory, the maximum mass of individuals was much larger in the fluctuating population. In contrast to predictions, the higher growth rate was not related to energy extraction from cannibalism. Instead, the higher individual mass is suggested to be due to increased availability of resources due to a niche widening with increased individual body mass. The larger individual mass in the fluctuating population was related to a stronger correlation between the densities of 1-year-old individuals and 2-year-old individuals the following year in this population. Although cannibalism was the major mechanism regulating population dynamics, its importance was negligible in terms of providing cannibalizing individuals with energy subsequently increasing their fecundity. Instead, the study identifies a need for theoretical and empirical studies on the largely unstudied interplay between ontogenetic niche shifts and cannibalistic population dynamics. PMID:23053229

  18. Slow-fast stochastic diffusion dynamics and quasi-stationarity for diploid populations with varying size.

    PubMed

    Coron, Camille

    2016-01-01

    We are interested in the long-time behavior of a diploid population with sexual reproduction and randomly varying population size, characterized by its genotype composition at one bi-allelic locus. The population is modeled by a 3-dimensional birth-and-death process with competition, weak cooperation and Mendelian reproduction. This stochastic process is indexed by a scaling parameter K that goes to infinity, following a large population assumption. When the individual birth and natural death rates are of order K, the sequence of stochastic processes indexed by K converges toward a new slow-fast dynamics with variable population size. We indeed prove the convergence toward 0 of a fast variable giving the deviation of the population from quasi Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, while the sequence of slow variables giving the respective numbers of occurrences of each allele converges toward a 2-dimensional diffusion process that reaches (0,0) almost surely in finite time. The population size and the proportion of a given allele converge toward a Wright-Fisher diffusion with stochastically varying population size and diploid selection. We insist on differences between haploid and diploid populations due to population size stochastic variability. Using a non trivial change of variables, we study the absorption of this diffusion and its long time behavior conditioned on non-extinction. In particular we prove that this diffusion starting from any non-trivial state and conditioned on not hitting (0,0) admits a unique quasi-stationary distribution. We give numerical approximations of this quasi-stationary behavior in three biologically relevant cases: neutrality, overdominance, and separate niches. PMID:25840519

  19. Nonidentifiability of population size from capture-recapture data with heterogeneous detection probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Link, W.A.

    2003-01-01

    Heterogeneity in detection probabilities has long been recognized as problematic in mark-recapture studies, and numerous models developed to accommodate its effects. Individual heterogeneity is especially problematic, in that reasonable alternative models may predict essentially identical observations from populations of substantially different sizes. Thus even with very large samples, the analyst will not be able to distinguish among reasonable models of heterogeneity, even though these yield quite distinct inferences about population size. The problem is illustrated with models for closed and open populations.

  20. Population size-structure-dependent fitness and ecosystem consequences in Trinidadian guppies.

    PubMed

    Bassar, Ronald D; Heatherly, Thomas; Marshall, Michael C; Thomas, Steven A; Flecker, Alexander S; Reznick, David N

    2015-07-01

    Decades of theory and recent empirical results have shown that evolutionary, population, community and ecosystem properties are the result of feedbacks between ecological and evolutionary processes. The vast majority of theory and empirical research on these eco-evolutionary feedbacks has focused on interactions among population size and mean traits of populations. However, numbers and mean traits represent only a fraction of the possible feedback dimensions. Populations of many organisms consist of different size classes that differ in their impact on the environment and each other. Moreover, rarely do we know the map of ecological pathways through which changes in numbers or size structure cause evolutionary change. The goal of this study was to test the role of size structure in eco-evolutionary feedbacks of Trinidadian guppies and to begin to build an eco-evolutionary map along this unexplored dimension. We used a factorial experiment in mesocosms wherein we crossed high- and low-predation guppy phenotypes with population size structure. We tested the ability of changes in size structure to generate selection on the demographic rates of guppies using an integral projection model (IPM). To understand how fitness differences among high- and low-predation phenotypes may be generated, we measured the response of the biomass of lower trophic levels and nutrient cycling to the different phenotype and size structure treatments. We found a significant interaction between guppy phenotype and the size structure treatments for absolute fitness. Size structure had a very large effect on invertebrate biomass in the mesocosms, but there was little or no effect of the phenotype. The effect of size structure on algal biomass depended on guppy phenotype, with no difference in algal biomass in populations with more, smaller guppies, but a large decrease in algal biomass in mesocosms with phenotypes adapted to low-predation risk. These results indicate an important role for size

  1. Using pedigree reconstruction to estimate population size: genotypes are more than individually unique marks

    PubMed Central

    Creel, Scott; Rosenblatt, Elias

    2013-01-01

    Estimates of population size are critical for conservation and management, but accurate estimates are difficult to obtain for many species. Noninvasive genetic methods are increasingly used to estimate population size, particularly in elusive species such as large carnivores, which are difficult to count by most other methods. In most such studies, genotypes are treated simply as unique individual identifiers. Here, we develop a new estimator of population size based on pedigree reconstruction. The estimator accounts for individuals that were directly sampled, individuals that were not sampled but whose genotype could be inferred by pedigree reconstruction, and individuals that were not detected by either of these methods. Monte Carlo simulations show that the population estimate is unbiased and precise if sampling is of sufficient intensity and duration. Simulations also identified sampling conditions that can cause the method to overestimate or underestimate true population size; we present and discuss methods to correct these potential biases. The method detected 2–21% more individuals than were directly sampled across a broad range of simulated sampling schemes. Genotypes are more than unique identifiers, and the information about relationships in a set of genotypes can improve estimates of population size. PMID:23762516

  2. Prediction of the size of unerupted canines and premolars in a Saudi Arab population.

    PubMed

    al-Khadra, B H

    1993-10-01

    The estimation of the size of unerupted permanent teeth is an essential aspect in treatment planning in the mixed dentition. The commonly used prediction methods of Moyers and Tanaka and Johnston are based on data from a sample of children of Northern European descent. The accuracy of these methods when applied to a different population is questionable. When we applied the Moyers probability tables to a limited sample of a Saudi Arab population, we found that the 35% level was a more accurate determinant than the commonly used 75% confidence level. Likewise, the prediction equations of Tanaka and Johnston overestimated the size of buccal segments in this population. The data illustrate the limitations of these methods when applied to a sample population of other than European descent. From this data, two linear regression equations were developed for tooth size prediction in Saudi Arab children. PMID:8213659

  3. Population size and relatedness affect fitness of a self-incompatible invasive plant.

    PubMed

    Elam, Diane R; Ridley, Caroline E; Goodell, Karen; Ellstrand, Norman C

    2007-01-01

    One of the lingering paradoxes in invasion biology is how founder populations of an introduced species are able to overcome the limitations of small size and, in a "reversal of fortune," proliferate in a new habitat. The transition from colonist to invader is especially enigmatic for self-incompatible species, which must find a mate to reproduce. In small populations, the inability to find a mate can result in the Allee effect, a positive relationship between individual fitness and population size or density. Theoretically, the Allee effect should be common in founder populations of self-incompatible colonizing species and may account for the high rate of failed introductions, but little supporting evidence exists. We created a field experiment to test whether the Allee effect affects the maternal fitness of a self-incompatible invasive species, wild radish (Raphanus sativus). We created populations of varying size and relatedness. We measured maternal fitness in terms of both fruit set per flower and seed number per fruit. We found that both population size and the level of genetic relatedness among individuals influence maternal reproductive success. Our results explicitly define an ecological genetic obstacle faced by populations of an exotic species on its way to becoming invasive. Such a mechanistic understanding of the invasions of species that require a mate can and should be exploited for both controlling current outbreaks and reducing their frequency in the future. PMID:17197422

  4. Population Size and Cultural Evolution in Nonindustrial Food-Producing Societies

    PubMed Central

    Collard, Mark; Ruttle, April; Buchanan, Briggs; O’Brien, Michael J.

    2013-01-01

    Modeling work suggests that population size affects cultural evolution such that larger populations can be expected to have richer and more complex cultural repertoires than smaller populations. Empirical tests of this hypothesis, however, have yielded conflicting results. Here, we report a study in which we investigated whether the subsistence toolkits of small-scale food-producers are influenced by population size in the manner the hypothesis predicts. We applied simple linear and standard multiple regression analysis to data from 40 nonindustrial farming and pastoralist groups to test the hypothesis. Results were consistent with predictions of the hypothesis: both the richness and the complexity of the toolkits of the food-producers were positively and significantly influenced by population size in the simple linear regression analyses. The multiple regression analyses demonstrated that these relationships are independent of the effects of risk of resource failure, which is the other main factor that has been found to influence toolkit richness and complexity in nonindustrial groups. Thus, our study strongly suggests that population size influences cultural evolution in nonindustrial food-producing populations. PMID:24069153

  5. Effects of Sample Size on Estimates of Population Growth Rates Calculated with Matrix Models

    PubMed Central

    Fiske, Ian J.; Bruna, Emilio M.; Bolker, Benjamin M.

    2008-01-01

    Background Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (λ) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of λ–Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of λ due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of λ. Methodology/Principal Findings Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating λ for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of λ with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. Conclusions/Significance We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities. PMID:18769483

  6. Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Yu-Lin; Matney, Mark; Liou, J.-C.; Hyde, James; Prior, Thomas G.

    The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version -ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 µm and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris popu-lations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input popu-lations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact con-ditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satis-factorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 µm.

  7. Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xu, Y.-L.; Hyde, J. L.; Prior, T.; Matney, Mark

    2010-01-01

    The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 m and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 m.

  8. Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xu, Y.-L.; Matney, M.; Liou, J.-C.; Hyde, J. L.; Prior, T. G.

    2010-01-01

    The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version . ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 micron and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 micron.

  9. Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

    PubMed Central

    DeLong, John P.; Burger, Oskar

    2015-01-01

    The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system. PMID:26091499

  10. When phenology matters: age-size truncation alters population response to trophic mismatch.

    PubMed

    Ohlberger, Jan; Thackeray, Stephen J; Winfield, Ian J; Maberly, Stephen C; Vøllestad, L Asbjørn

    2014-10-22

    Climate-induced shifts in the timing of life-history events are a worldwide phenomenon, and these shifts can de-synchronize species interactions such as predator-prey relationships. In order to understand the ecological implications of altered seasonality, we need to consider how shifts in phenology interact with other agents of environmental change such as exploitation and disease spread, which commonly act to erode the demographic structure of wild populations. Using long-term observational data on the phenology and dynamics of a model predator-prey system (fish and zooplankton in Windermere, UK), we show that age-size truncation of the predator population alters the consequences of phenological mismatch for offspring survival and population abundance. Specifically, age-size truncation reduces intraspecific density regulation due to competition and cannibalism, and thereby amplifies the population sensitivity to climate-induced predator-prey asynchrony, which increases variability in predator abundance. High population variability poses major ecological and economic challenges as it can diminish sustainable harvest rates and increase the risk of population collapse. Our results stress the importance of maintaining within-population age-size diversity in order to buffer populations against phenological asynchrony, and highlight the need to consider interactive effects of environmental impacts if we are to understand and project complex ecological outcomes. PMID:25165767

  11. Estimating the Size of Populations at High Risk for HIV Using Respondent-Driven Sampling Data

    PubMed Central

    Handcock, Mark S.; Gile, Krista J.; Mar, Corinne M.

    2015-01-01

    Summary The study of hard-to-reach populations presents significant challenges. Typically, a sampling frame is not available, and population members are difficult to identify or recruit from broader sampling frames. This is especially true of populations at high risk for HIV/AIDS. Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is often used in such settings with the primary goal of estimating the prevalence of infection. In such populations, the number of people at risk for infection and the number of people infected are of fundamental importance. This article presents a case-study of the estimation of the size of the hard-to-reach population based on data collected through RDS. We study two populations of female sex workers and men-who-have-sex-with-men in El Salvador. The approach is Bayesian and we consider different forms of prior information, including using the UNAIDS population size guidelines for this region. We show that the method is able to quantify the amount of information on population size available in RDS samples. As separate validation, we compare our results to those estimated by extrapolating from a capture–recapture study of El Salvadorian cities. The results of our case-study are largely comparable to those of the capture–recapture study when they differ from the UNAIDS guidelines. Our method is widely applicable to data from RDS studies and we provide a software package to facilitate this. PMID:25585794

  12. Intermittent breeding and constraints on litter size: consequences for effective population size per generation (Ne ) and per reproductive cycle (Nb ).

    PubMed

    Waples, Robin S; Antao, Tiago

    2014-06-01

    In iteroparous species, it is easier to estimate Nb (effective number of breeders in one reproductive cycle) than Ne (effective population size per generation). Nb can be used as a proxy for Ne and also can provide crucial insights into eco-evolutionary processes that occur during reproduction. We used analytical and numerical methods to evaluate effects of intermittent breeding and litter/clutch size on inbreeding Nb and Ne . Fixed or random litter sizes ≥ 3 have little effect on either effective-size parameter; however, in species (e.g., many large mammals) in which females can produce only one offspring per cycle, female Nb  = ∞ and overall Nb  = 4Nb (male) . Intermittent breeding reduces the pool of female breeders, which reduces both female and overall Nb ; reductions are larger in high-fecundity species with high juvenile mortality and increase when multiple reproductive cycles are skipped. Simulated data for six model species showed that both intermittent breeding and litter-size constraints increase Ne , but only slightly. We show how to quantitatively account for these effects, which are important to consider when (1) using Nb to estimate Ne , or (2) drawing inferences about male reproductive success based on estimates of female Nb . PMID:24611912

  13. Population regulation in Magellanic penguins: what determines changes in colony size?

    PubMed

    Pozzi, Luciana M; García Borboroglu, Pablo; Boersma, P Dee; Pascual, Miguel A

    2015-01-01

    Seabirds are often studied at individual colonies, but the confounding effects of emigration and mortality processes in open populations may lead to inappropriate conclusions on the mechanisms underlying population changes. Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) colonies of variable population sizes are distributed along the Argentine coastline. In recent decades, several population and distributional changes have occurred, with some colonies declining and others newly established or increasing. We integrated data of eight colonies scattered along ∼600 km in Northern Patagonia (from 41°26´S, 65°01´W to 45°11´S, 66°30´W, Rio Negro and Chubut provinces) and conducted analysis in terms of their growth rates, production of young and of the dependence of those vital rates on colony age, size, and location. We contrasted population trends estimated from abundance data with those derived from population modeling to understand if observed growth rates were attainable under closed population scenarios. Population trends were inversely related to colony size, suggesting a density dependent growth pattern. All colonies located in the north--which were established during the last decades--increased at high rates, with the smallest, recently established colonies growing at the fastest rate. In central-southern Chubut, where colonies are the oldest, the largest breeding aggregations declined, but smaller colonies remained relatively stable. Results provided strong evidence that dispersal played a major role in driving local trends. Breeding success was higher in northern colonies, likely mediated by favorable oceanographic conditions. However, mean foraging distance and body condition of chicks at fledging were influenced by colony size. Recruitment of penguins in the northern area may have been triggered by a combination of density dependence, likely exacerbated by less favorable oceanographic conditions in the southern sector. Our results reaffirm the idea that

  14. Population Regulation in Magellanic Penguins: What Determines Changes in Colony Size?

    PubMed Central

    Pozzi, Luciana M.; Borboroglu, Pablo García; Boersma, P. Dee; Pascual, Miguel A.

    2015-01-01

    Seabirds are often studied at individual colonies, but the confounding effects of emigration and mortality processes in open populations may lead to inappropriate conclusions on the mechanisms underlying population changes. Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) colonies of variable population sizes are distributed along the Argentine coastline. In recent decades, several population and distributional changes have occurred, with some colonies declining and others newly established or increasing. We integrated data of eight colonies scattered along ∼ 600 km in Northern Patagonia (from 41°26´S, 65°01´W to 45°11´S, 66°30´W, Rio Negro and Chubut provinces) and conducted analysis in terms of their growth rates, production of young and of the dependence of those vital rates on colony age, size, and location. We contrasted population trends estimated from abundance data with those derived from population modeling to understand if observed growth rates were attainable under closed population scenarios. Population trends were inversely related to colony size, suggesting a density dependent growth pattern. All colonies located in the north—which were established during the last decades—increased at high rates, with the smallest, recently established colonies growing at the fastest rate. In central-southern Chubut, where colonies are the oldest, the largest breeding aggregations declined, but smaller colonies remained relatively stable. Results provided strong evidence that dispersal played a major role in driving local trends. Breeding success was higher in northern colonies, likely mediated by favorable oceanographic conditions. However, mean foraging distance and body condition of chicks at fledging were influenced by colony size. Recruitment of penguins in the northern area may have been triggered by a combination of density dependence, likely exacerbated by less favorable oceanographic conditions in the southern sector. Our results reaffirm the idea

  15. Effects of recruitment, growth, and exploitation on walleye population size structure in northern Wisconsin lakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated the dynamics of walleye Sander vitreus population size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution (PSD) of quality-length fish, in Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003 and in 204 other lakes in northern Wisconsin during 1990–2011. We estimated PSD from angler-caught walleyes in Escanaba Lake and from spring electrofishing in 204 other lakes, and then related PSD to annual estimates of recruitment to age-3, length at age 3, and annual angling exploitation rate. In Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003, annual estimates of PSD were highly dynamic, growth (positively) explained 35% of PSD variation, recruitment explained only 3% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 7% of PSD variation. In 204 other northern Wisconsin lakes during 1990–2011, PSD varied widely among lakes, recruitment (negatively) explained 29% of PSD variation, growth (positively) explained 21% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 4% of PSD variation. We conclude that population size structure was most strongly driven by recruitment and growth, rather than exploitation, in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Studies of other species over wide spatial and temporal ranges of recruitment, growth, and mortality are needed to determine which dynamic rate most strongly influences population size structure of other species. Our findings indicate a need to be cautious about assuming exploitation is a strong driver of walleye population size structure.

  16. Accounting for missing data in the estimation of contemporary genetic effective population size (N(e) ).

    PubMed

    Peel, D; Waples, R S; Macbeth, G M; Do, C; Ovenden, J R

    2013-03-01

    Theoretical models are often applied to population genetic data sets without fully considering the effect of missing data. Researchers can deal with missing data by removing individuals that have failed to yield genotypes and/or by removing loci that have failed to yield allelic determinations, but despite their best efforts, most data sets still contain some missing data. As a consequence, realized sample size differs among loci, and this poses a problem for unbiased methods that must explicitly account for random sampling error. One commonly used solution for the calculation of contemporary effective population size (N(e) ) is to calculate the effective sample size as an unweighted mean or harmonic mean across loci. This is not ideal because it fails to account for the fact that loci with different numbers of alleles have different information content. Here we consider this problem for genetic estimators of contemporary effective population size (N(e) ). To evaluate bias and precision of several statistical approaches for dealing with missing data, we simulated populations with known N(e) and various degrees of missing data. Across all scenarios, one method of correcting for missing data (fixed-inverse variance-weighted harmonic mean) consistently performed the best for both single-sample and two-sample (temporal) methods of estimating N(e) and outperformed some methods currently in widespread use. The approach adopted here may be a starting point to adjust other population genetics methods that include per-locus sample size components. PMID:23280157

  17. Bistability in a size-structured population model of cannibalistic fish--a continuation study.

    PubMed

    Claessen, David; de Roos, André M

    2003-08-01

    By numerical continuation of equilibria, we study a size-structured model for the dynamics of a cannibalistic fish population and its alternative resource. Because we model the cannibalistic interaction as dependent on the ratio of cannibal length and victim length, a cannibal experiences a size distribution of potential victims which depends on its own body size. We show how equilibria of the resulting infinite-dimensional dynamical system can be traced with an existing method for numerical continuation for physiologically structured population models. With this approach we found that cannibalism can induce bistability associated with a fold (or, saddle-node) bifurcation. The two stable states can be qualified as 'stunted' and 'piscivorous', respectively. We identify a new ecological mechanism for bistability, in which the energy gain from cannibalism plays a crucial role: Whereas in the stunted population state cannibals consume their victims, on average, while they are very small and yield little energy, in the piscivorous state cannibals consume their victims not before they have become much bigger, which results in a much higher mean yield of cannibalism. We refer to this mechanism as the 'Hansel and Gretel' effect. It is not related to any individual 'choice' or 'strategy', but depends purely on a difference in population size distribution. We argue that studying dynamics of size-structured population models with this new approach of equilibrium continuation extends the insight that can be gleaned from numerical simulations of the model dynamics. PMID:12804871

  18. Bayes estimation of species divergence times and ancestral population sizes using DNA sequences from multiple loci.

    PubMed

    Rannala, Bruce; Yang, Ziheng

    2003-08-01

    The effective population sizes of ancestral as well as modern species are important parameters in models of population genetics and human evolution. The commonly used method for estimating ancestral population sizes, based on counting mismatches between the species tree and the inferred gene trees, is highly biased as it ignores uncertainties in gene tree reconstruction. In this article, we develop a Bayes method for simultaneous estimation of the species divergence times and current and ancestral population sizes. The method uses DNA sequence data from multiple loci and extracts information about conflicts among gene tree topologies and coalescent times to estimate ancestral population sizes. The topology of the species tree is assumed known. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is implemented to integrate over uncertain gene trees and branch lengths (or coalescence times) at each locus as well as species divergence times. The method can handle any species tree and allows different numbers of sequences at different loci. We apply the method to published noncoding DNA sequences from the human and the great apes. There are strong correlations between posterior estimates of speciation times and ancestral population sizes. With the use of an informative prior for the human-chimpanzee divergence date, the population size of the common ancestor of the two species is estimated to be approximately 20,000, with a 95% credibility interval (8000, 40,000). Our estimates, however, are affected by model assumptions as well as data quality. We suggest that reliable estimates have yet to await more data and more realistic models. PMID:12930768

  19. Circulating virus load determines the size of bottlenecks in viral populations progressing within a host.

    PubMed

    Gutiérrez, Serafín; Yvon, Michel; Pirolles, Elodie; Garzo, Eliza; Fereres, Alberto; Michalakis, Yannis; Blanc, Stéphane

    2012-01-01

    For any organism, population size, and fluctuations thereof, are of primary importance in determining the forces driving its evolution. This is particularly true for viruses--rapidly evolving entities that form populations with transient and explosive expansions alternating with phases of migration, resulting in strong population bottlenecks and associated founder effects that increase genetic drift. A typical illustration of this pattern is the progression of viral disease within a eukaryotic host, where such demographic fluctuations are a key factor in the emergence of new variants with altered virulence. Viruses initiate replication in one or only a few infection foci, then move through the vasculature to seed secondary infection sites and so invade distant organs and tissues. Founder effects during this within-host colonization might depend on the concentration of infectious units accumulating and circulating in the vasculature, as this represents the infection dose reaching new organs or "territories". Surprisingly, whether or not the easily measurable circulating (plasma) virus load directly drives the size of population bottlenecks during host colonization has not been documented in animal viruses, while in plants the virus load within the sap has never been estimated. Here, we address this important question by monitoring both the virus concentration flowing in host plant sap, and the number of viral genomes founding the population in each successive new leaf. Our results clearly indicate that the concentration of circulating viruses directly determines the size of bottlenecks, which hence controls founder effects and effective population size during disease progression within a host. PMID:23133389

  20. Transition Densities and Sample Frequency Spectra of Diffusion Processes with Selection and Variable Population Size

    PubMed Central

    Živković, Daniel; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S.; Stephan, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    Advances in empirical population genetics have made apparent the need for models that simultaneously account for selection and demography. To address this need, we here study the Wright–Fisher diffusion under selection and variable effective population size. In the case of genic selection and piecewise-constant effective population sizes, we obtain the transition density by extending a recently developed method for computing an accurate spectral representation for a constant population size. Utilizing this extension, we show how to compute the sample frequency spectrum in the presence of genic selection and an arbitrary number of instantaneous changes in the effective population size. We also develop an alternate, efficient algorithm for computing the sample frequency spectrum using a moment-based approach. We apply these methods to answer the following questions: If neutrality is incorrectly assumed when there is selection, what effects does it have on demographic parameter estimation? Can the impact of negative selection be observed in populations that undergo strong exponential growth? PMID:25873633

  1. Effects of host-plant population size and plant sex on a specialist leaf-miner

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bañuelos, María-José; Kollmann, Johannes

    2011-03-01

    Animal population density has been related to resource patch size through various hypotheses such as those derived from island biogeography and resource concentration theory. This theoretical framework can be also applied to plant-herbivore interactions, and it can be modified by the sex of the host-plant, and density-dependent relationships. Leaf-miners are specialised herbivores that leave distinct traces on infested leaves in the form of egg scars, mines, signs of predation and emergence holes. This allows the life cycle of the insect to be reconstructed and the success at the different stages to be estimated. The main stages of the leaf-miner Phytomyza ilicis were recorded in eleven populations of the evergreen host Ilex aquifolium in Denmark. Survival rates were calculated and related to population size, sex of the host plant, and egg and mine densities. Host population size was negatively related to leaf-miner prevalence, with larger egg and mine densities in small populations. Percentage of eggs hatching and developing into mines, and percentage of adult flies emerging from mines also differed among host populations, but were not related to population size or host cover. Feeding punctures left by adults were marginally more frequent on male plants, whereas egg scars and mines were more common on females. Overall survival rate from egg stage to adult emergence was higher on female plants. Egg density was negatively correlated with hatching, while mine density was positively correlated with emergence of the larvae. The inverse effects of host population size were not in line with predictions based on island biogeography and resource concentration theory. We discuss how a thorough knowledge of the immigration behaviour of this fly might help to understand the patterns found.

  2. Size-frequency distribution of crater populations in equilibrium on the Moon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Zhiyong; Werner, Stephanie C.

    2015-12-01

    Overprinting of craters by subsequent impacts and topographic degradation complicates crater statistics, especially for old surfaces and small-diameter crater populations. A crater population is regarded as in equilibrium at a particular crater size when smaller craters are being produced at the same rate at which they are being destroyed. Evaluating the equilibrium state of crater populations is challenging, and empirical equilibrium densities are frequently inferred. By performing careful crater counts and cross comparisons on several lunar surfaces, we study the size-frequency distributions (SFD) for the crater populations, which have portions in equilibrium. The results are one of the few observational constraints on the SFD of crater populations in equilibrium, showing that referring to empirical equilibrium densities is not safe for evaluating the equilibrium states of crater populations. Equilibrium densities are not positively correlated with the ages of crater populations, and some populations in equilibrium have crater densities less than those previously believed to represent equilibrium conditions. Besides the SFD of the production population, different crater removal rates at different diameters also affect the SFD of crater populations in equilibrium. The equilibrium onset diameter (Deq) of a crater population can be translated to model ages because older populations have larger Deq, and those for same-aged surfaces are comparable. We show that the crater populations studied here are in equilibrium at much smaller diameters than those predicted for same-aged surfaces by crater degradation models, thus indicating lower crater degradation rates on the Moon, and/or younger ages of the counting areas.

  3. Are heritability and selection related to population size in nature? Meta-analysis and conservation implications.

    PubMed

    Wood, Jacquelyn L A; Yates, Matthew C; Fraser, Dylan J

    2016-06-01

    It is widely thought that small populations should have less additive genetic variance and respond less efficiently to natural selection than large populations. Across taxa, we meta-analytically quantified the relationship between adult census population size (N) and additive genetic variance (proxy: h (2)) and found no reduction in h (2) with decreasing N; surveyed populations ranged from four to one million individuals (1735 h (2) estimates, 146 populations, 83 species). In terms of adaptation, ecological conditions may systematically differ between populations of varying N; the magnitude of selection these populations experience may therefore also differ. We thus also meta-analytically tested whether selection changes with N and found little evidence for systematic differences in the strength, direction or form of selection with N across different trait types and taxa (7344 selection estimates, 172 populations, 80 species). Collectively, our results (i) indirectly suggest that genetic drift neither overwhelms selection more in small than in large natural populations, nor weakens adaptive potential/h (2) in small populations, and (ii) imply that natural populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions, without consistently differing habitat quality at small N. However, we caution that the data are currently insufficient to determine whether some small populations may retain adaptive potential definitively. Further study is required into (i) selection and genetic variation in completely isolated populations of known N, under-represented taxonomic groups, and nongeneralist species, (ii) adaptive potential using multidimensional approaches and (iii) the nature of selective pressures for specific traits. PMID:27247616

  4. Population Variation Reveals Independent Selection toward Small Body Size in Chinese Debao Pony

    PubMed Central

    Kader, Adiljan; Li, Yan; Dong, Kunzhe; Irwin, David M.; Zhao, Qianjun; He, Xiaohong; Liu, Jianfeng; Pu, Yabin; Gorkhali, Neena Amatya; Liu, Xuexue; Jiang, Lin; Li, Xiangchen; Guan, Weijun; Zhang, Yaping; Wu, Dong-Dong; Ma, Yuehui

    2016-01-01

    Body size, one of the most important quantitative traits under evolutionary scrutiny, varies considerably among species and among populations within species. Revealing the genetic basis underlying this variation is very important, particularly in humans where there is a close relationship with diseases and in domestic animals as the selective patterns are associated with improvements in production traits. The Debao pony is a horse breed with small body size that is unique to China; however, it is unknown whether the size-related candidate genes identified in Western breeds also account for the small body size of the Debao pony. Here, we compared individual horses from the Debao population with other two Chinese horse populations using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified with the Equine SNP 65 Bead Chip. The previously reported size-related candidate gene HMGA2 showed a significant signature for selection, consistent with its role observed in human populations. More interestingly, we found a candidate gene TBX3, which had not been observed in previous studies on horse body size that displayed the highest differentiation and most significant association, and thus likely is the dominating factor for the small stature of the Debao pony. Further comparison between the Debao pony and other breeds of horses from around the world demonstrated that TBX3 was selected independently in the Debao pony, suggesting that there were multiple origins of small stature in the horse. PMID:26637467

  5. Population Variation Reveals Independent Selection toward Small Body Size in Chinese Debao Pony.

    PubMed

    Kader, Adiljan; Li, Yan; Dong, Kunzhe; Irwin, David M; Zhao, Qianjun; He, Xiaohong; Liu, Jianfeng; Pu, Yabin; Gorkhali, Neena Amatya; Liu, Xuexue; Jiang, Lin; Li, Xiangchen; Guan, Weijun; Zhang, Yaping; Wu, Dong-Dong; Ma, Yuehui

    2016-01-01

    Body size, one of the most important quantitative traits under evolutionary scrutiny, varies considerably among species and among populations within species. Revealing the genetic basis underlying this variation is very important, particularly in humans where there is a close relationship with diseases and in domestic animals as the selective patterns are associated with improvements in production traits. The Debao pony is a horse breed with small body size that is unique to China; however, it is unknown whether the size-related candidate genes identified in Western breeds also account for the small body size of the Debao pony. Here, we compared individual horses from the Debao population with other two Chinese horse populations using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified with the Equine SNP 65 Bead Chip. The previously reported size-related candidate gene HMGA2 showed a significant signature for selection, consistent with its role observed in human populations. More interestingly, we found a candidate gene TBX3, which had not been observed in previous studies on horse body size that displayed the highest differentiation and most significant association, and thus likely is the dominating factor for the small stature of the Debao pony. Further comparison between the Debao pony and other breeds of horses from around the world demonstrated that TBX3 was selected independently in the Debao pony, suggesting that there were multiple origins of small stature in the horse. PMID:26637467

  6. Assessment of Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) clutch size in wild and laboratory populations.

    PubMed

    Davis, Timothy J; Kline, Daniel L; Kaufman, Phillip E

    2016-06-01

    Aedes albopictus (Skuse) is an invasive mosquito species found across the southern U.S. with range expansion into many northern states. Intra- and interspecific larval competition have been evaluated for Ae. albopictus with respect to subsequent adult size, immature and adult survivability, and its capacity to vector pathogens as an adult. However, limited data are available on egg production as related to larval rearing conditions. Because Ae. albopictus is a container-inhabiting mosquito that oviposits in resource-limited habitats, it is found under variable density-dependent conditions. Therefore, we examined the impact of specific rearing conditions on Ae. albopictus clutch size and adult body size; comparing the egg production values and wing lengths from known developmental densities to those from field-collected populations. Field populations varied significantly among collection sites in mean clutch size (23 to 46). These clutch sizes were comparable to the mean clutch sizes of females reared at the larval densities of nine (20 eggs) and three (53 eggs) larvae per 3 ml of water in the laboratory. Field populations experienced density-dependent effects impacting adult mosquito size. Mosquitoes from the four sample sites had mean wing lengths of 1.99, 2.47, 2.51, and 2.54 mm, which were less than the mean wing length of mosquitoes reared at larval densities of three larvae per 3 ml of water (2.57 mm). PMID:27232119

  7. Relationship between trawl selectivity and fish body size in a simulated population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Peng; Liang, Zhenlin; Huang, Liuyi; Tang, Yanli; He, Xin

    2013-03-01

    Trawl is a main fishing gear in Chinese fishery, capturing large fish and letting small ones at large. However, long-term use of trawl would result in changes of phenotypic traits of the fish stocks, such as smaller size-at-age and earlier age-at-maturation. In this study, we simulated a fish population with size characteristics of trawl fishing and the population produces one generation of offspring and lives for one year, used trawl to exploit the simulated fish population, and captured individuals by body size. We evaluated the impact of the changes on selectivity parameters, such as selective range and the length at 50% retention. Under fishing pressure, we specified the selectivity parameters, and determined that smaller selection rates and greater length at 50% retention were associated with an increased tendency towards miniaturization.

  8. Sample size calculations for surveys to substantiate freedom of populations from infectious agents.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Wesley O; Su, Chun-Lung; Gardner, Ian A; Christensen, Ronald

    2004-03-01

    We develop a Bayesian approach to sample size computations for surveys designed to provide evidence of freedom from a disease or from an infectious agent. A population is considered "disease-free" when the prevalence or probability of disease is less than some threshold value. Prior distributions are specified for diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity and we test the null hypothesis that the prevalence is below the threshold. Sample size computations are developed using hypergeometric sampling for finite populations and binomial sampling for infinite populations. A normal approximation is also developed. Our procedures are compared with the frequentist methods of Cameron and Baldock (1998a, Preventive Veterinary Medicine34, 1-17.) using an example of foot-and-mouth disease. User-friendly programs for sample size calculation and analysis of survey data are available at http://www.epi.ucdavis.edu/diagnostictests/. PMID:15032786

  9. Host Plant Determines the Population Size of an Obligate Symbiont (Buchnera aphidicola) in Aphids.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yuan-Chen; Cao, Wen-Jie; Zhong, Le-Rong; Godfray, H Charles J; Liu, Xiang-Dong

    2016-04-01

    Buchnera aphidicolais an obligate endosymbiont that provides aphids with several essential nutrients. Though much is known about aphid-Buchnera interactions, the effect of the host plant on Buchnera population size remains unclear. Here we used quantitative PCR (qPCR) techniques to explore the effects of the host plant on Buchnera densities in the cotton-melon aphid, Aphis gossypii Buchneratiters were significantly higher in populations that had been reared on cucumber for over 10 years than in populations maintained on cotton for a similar length of time. Aphids collected in the wild from hibiscus and zucchini harbored more Buchnera symbionts than those collected from cucumber and cotton. The effect of aphid genotype on the population size of Buchnera depended on the host plant upon which they fed. When aphids from populations maintained on cucumber or cotton were transferred to novel host plants, host survival and Buchnera population size fluctuated markedly for the first two generations before becoming relatively stable in the third and later generations. Host plant extracts from cucumber, pumpkin, zucchini, and cowpea added to artificial diets led to a significant increase in Buchnera titers in the aphids from the population reared on cotton, while plant extracts from cotton and zucchini led to a decrease in Buchnera titers in the aphids reared on cucumber. Gossypol, a secondary metabolite from cotton, suppressed Buchnera populations in populations from both cotton and cucumber, while cucurbitacin from cucurbit plants led to higher densities. Together, the results suggest that host plants influence Buchnera population processes and that this may provide phenotypic plasticity in host plant use for clonal aphids. PMID:26850304

  10. Metapopulation effective size and conservation genetic goals for the Fennoscandian wolf (Canis lupus) population.

    PubMed

    Laikre, L; Olsson, F; Jansson, E; Hössjer, O; Ryman, N

    2016-10-01

    The Scandinavian wolf population descends from only five individuals, is isolated, highly inbred and exhibits inbreeding depression. To meet international conservation goals, suggestions include managing subdivided wolf populations over Fennoscandia as a metapopulation; a genetically effective population size of Ne⩾500, in line with the widely accepted long-term genetic viability target, might be attainable with gene flow among subpopulations of Scandinavia, Finland and Russian parts of Fennoscandia. Analytical means for modeling Ne of subdivided populations under such non-idealized situations have been missing, but we recently developed new mathematical methods for exploring inbreeding dynamics and effective population size of complex metapopulations. We apply this theory to the Fennoscandian wolves using empirical estimates of demographic parameters. We suggest that the long-term conservation genetic target for metapopulations should imply that inbreeding rates in the total system and in the separate subpopulations should not exceed Δf=0.001. This implies a meta-Ne of NeMeta⩾500 and a realized effective size of each subpopulation of NeRx⩾500. With current local effective population sizes and one migrant per generation, as recommended by management guidelines, the meta-Ne that can be reached is ~250. Unidirectional gene flow from Finland to Scandinavia reduces meta-Ne to ~130. Our results indicate that both local subpopulation effective sizes and migration among subpopulations must increase substantially from current levels to meet the conservation target. Alternatively, immigration from a large (Ne⩾500) population in northwestern Russia could support the Fennoscandian metapopulation, but immigration must be substantial (5-10 effective immigrants per generation) and migration among Fennoscandian subpopulations must nevertheless increase. PMID:27328654

  11. Nautilus at Risk – Estimating Population Size and Demography of Nautilus pompilius

    PubMed Central

    Dunstan, Andrew; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.; Marshall, Justin

    2011-01-01

    The low fecundity, late maturity, long gestation and long life span of Nautilus suggest that this species is vulnerable to over-exploitation. Demand from the ornamental shell trade has contributed to their rapid decline in localized populations. More data from wild populations are needed to design management plans which ensure Nautilus persistence. We used a variety of techniques including capture-mark-recapture, baited remote underwater video systems, ultrasonic telemetry and remotely operated vehicles to estimate population size, growth rates, distribution and demographic characteristics of an unexploited Nautilus pompilius population at Osprey Reef (Coral Sea, Australia). We estimated a small and dispersed population of between 844 and 4467 individuals (14.6–77.4 km−2) dominated by males (83∶17 male∶female) and comprised of few juveniles (<10%).These results provide the first Nautilid population and density estimates which are essential elements for long-term management of populations via sustainable catch models. Results from baited remote underwater video systems provide confidence for their more widespread use to assess efficiently the size and density of exploited and unexploited Nautilus populations worldwide. PMID:21347360

  12. Nautilus at risk--estimating population size and demography of Nautilus pompilius.

    PubMed

    Dunstan, Andrew; Bradshaw, Corey J A; Marshall, Justin

    2011-01-01

    The low fecundity, late maturity, long gestation and long life span of Nautilus suggest that this species is vulnerable to over-exploitation. Demand from the ornamental shell trade has contributed to their rapid decline in localized populations. More data from wild populations are needed to design management plans which ensure Nautilus persistence. We used a variety of techniques including capture-mark-recapture, baited remote underwater video systems, ultrasonic telemetry and remotely operated vehicles to estimate population size, growth rates, distribution and demographic characteristics of an unexploited Nautilus pompilius population at Osprey Reef (Coral Sea, Australia). We estimated a small and dispersed population of between 844 and 4467 individuals (14.6-77.4 km(-2)) dominated by males (83:17 male:female) and comprised of few juveniles (<10%).These results provide the first Nautilid population and density estimates which are essential elements for long-term management of populations via sustainable catch models. Results from baited remote underwater video systems provide confidence for their more widespread use to assess efficiently the size and density of exploited and unexploited Nautilus populations worldwide. PMID:21347360

  13. Linkage Disequilibrium Estimation of Effective Population Size with Immigrants from Divergent Populations: A Case Study on Spanish Mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson).

    PubMed

    Macbeth, Gilbert Michael; Broderick, Damien; Buckworth, Rik C; Ovenden, Jennifer R

    2013-03-11

    Estimates of genetic effective population size (Ne) using molecular markers are a potentially useful tool for the management of endangered through to commercial species. But, pitfalls are predicted when the effective size is large, as estimates require large numbers of samples from wild populations for statistical validity. Our simulations showed that linkage disequilibrium estimates of Ne up to 10,000 with finite confidence limits can be achieved with sample sizes around 5000. This was deduced from empirical allele frequencies of seven polymorphic microsatellite loci in a commercially harvested fisheries species, the narrow barred Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson). As expected, the smallest standard deviation of Ne estimates occurred when low frequency alleles were excluded. Additional simulations indicated that the linkage disequilibrium method was sensitive to small numbers of genotypes from cryptic species or conspecific immigrants. A correspondence analysis algorithm was developed to detect and remove outlier genotypes that could possibly be inadvertently sampled from cryptic species or non-breeding immigrants from genetically separate populations. Simulations demonstrated the value of this approach in Spanish mackerel data. When putative immigrants were removed from the empirical data, 95% of the Ne estimates from jacknife resampling were above 24,000. PMID:23550119

  14. Linkage Disequilibrium Estimation of Effective Population Size with Immigrants from Divergent Populations: A Case Study on Spanish Mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson)

    PubMed Central

    Macbeth, Gilbert Michael; Broderick, Damien; Buckworth, Rik C.; Ovenden, Jennifer R.

    2013-01-01

    Estimates of genetic effective population size (Ne) using molecular markers are a potentially useful tool for the management of endangered through to commercial species. However, pitfalls are predicted when the effective size is large because estimates require large numbers of samples from wild populations for statistical validity. Our simulations showed that linkage disequilibrium estimates of Ne up to 10,000 with finite confidence limits can be achieved with sample sizes of approximately 5000. This number was deduced from empirical allele frequencies of seven polymorphic microsatellite loci in a commercially harvested fisheries species, the narrow-barred Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson). As expected, the smallest SD of Ne estimates occurred when low-frequency alleles were excluded. Additional simulations indicated that the linkage disequilibrium method was sensitive to small numbers of genotypes from cryptic species or conspecific immigrants. A correspondence analysis algorithm was developed to detect and remove outlier genotypes that could possibly be inadvertently sampled from cryptic species or nonbreeding immigrants from genetically separate populations. Simulations demonstrated the value of this approach in Spanish mackerel data. When putative immigrants were removed from the empirical data, 95% of the Ne estimates from jacknife resampling were greater than 24,000. PMID:23550119

  15. The genetics of rhizosheath size in a multiparent mapping population of wheat

    PubMed Central

    Delhaize, Emmanuel; Rathjen, Tina M.; Cavanagh, Colin R.

    2015-01-01

    Rhizosheaths comprise soil that adheres to plant roots and, in some species, are indicative of root hair length. In this study, the genetics of rhizosheath size in wheat was investigated by screening the progeny of multiparent advanced generation intercrosses (MAGIC). Two MAGIC populations were screened for rhizosheath size using a high throughput method. One MAGIC population was developed from intercrosses between four parents (4-way) and the other from intercrosses between eight parents (8-way). Transgressive segregation for rhizosheath size was observed in both the 4-way and 8-way MAGIC populations. A quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis of the 4-way population identified six major loci located on chromosomes 2B, 4D, 5A, 5B, 6A, and 7A together accounting for 42% of the variation in rhizosheath size. Rhizosheath size was strongly correlated with root hair length and was robust across different soil types in the absence of chemical constraints. Rhizosheath size in the MAGIC populations was a reliable surrogate for root hair length and, therefore, the QTL identified probably control root hair elongation. Members of the basic helix-loop-helix family of transcription factors have previously been identified to regulate root hair length in Arabidopsis and rice. Since several wheat members of the basic helix-loop-helix family of genes are located within or near the QTL, these genes are candidates for controlling the long root hair trait. The QTL for rhizosheath size identified in this study provides the opportunity to implement marker-assisted selection to increase root hair length for improved phosphate acquisition in wheat. PMID:25969556

  16. Experimental validation of a critical domain size in reaction–diffusion systems with Escherichia coli populations

    PubMed Central

    Perry, Nicolas

    2005-01-01

    In a one-variable, finite size reaction–diffusion system, the existence of a minimal domain size required for the existence of a non-zero steady state is predicted, provided that the reaction–diffusion variable has a fixed value of zero at the boundaries of the domain (Dirichlet boundary conditions). This type of reaction diffusion model can be applied in population biology, in which the finite domain of the system represents a refuge where individuals can live normally immersed in a desert, or region where the conditions are so unfavourable that individuals cannot live in it. Building on a suggestion by Kenkre and Kuperman, and using non-chemotactic E. coli populations and a quasi-one-dimensional experimental design, we were able to find a minimal size (approximately 0.8 cm) for a refuge immersed in a region irradiated with intense UV light. The observed minimal size is in reasonable agreement with theory. PMID:16849196

  17. Estimation of the size of a closed population when capture probabilities vary among animals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burnham, K.P.; Overton, W.S.

    1978-01-01

    A model which allows capture probabilities to vary by individuals is introduced for multiple recapture studies n closed populations. The set of individual capture probabilities is modelled as a random sample from an arbitrary probability distribution over the unit interval. We show that the capture frequencies are a sufficient statistic. A nonparametric estimator of population size is developed based on the generalized jackknife; this estimator is found to be a linear combination of the capture frequencies. Finally, tests of underlying assumptions are presented.

  18. cloncase: Estimation of sex frequency and effective population size by clonemate resampling in partially clonal organisms.

    PubMed

    Ali, Sajid; Soubeyrand, Samuel; Gladieux, Pierre; Giraud, Tatiana; Leconte, Marc; Gautier, Angélique; Mboup, Mamadou; Chen, Wanquan; de Vallavieille-Pope, Claude; Enjalbert, Jérôme

    2016-07-01

    Inferring reproductive and demographic parameters of populations is crucial to our understanding of species ecology and evolutionary potential but can be challenging, especially in partially clonal organisms. Here, we describe a new and accurate method, cloncase, for estimating both the rate of sexual vs. asexual reproduction and the effective population size, based on the frequency of clonemate resampling across generations. Simulations showed that our method provides reliable estimates of sex frequency and effective population size for a wide range of parameters. The cloncase method was applied to Puccinia striiformis f.sp. tritici, a fungal pathogen causing stripe/yellow rust, an important wheat disease. This fungus is highly clonal in Europe but has been suggested to recombine in Asia. Using two temporally spaced samples of P. striiformis f.sp. tritici in China, the estimated sex frequency was 75% (i.e. three-quarter of individuals being sexually derived during the yearly sexual cycle), indicating strong contribution of sexual reproduction to the life cycle of the pathogen in this area. The inferred effective population size of this partially clonal organism (Nc  = 998) was in good agreement with estimates obtained using methods based on temporal variations in allelic frequencies. The cloncase estimator presented herein is the first method allowing accurate inference of both sex frequency and effective population size from population data without knowledge of recombination or mutation rates. cloncase can be applied to population genetic data from any organism with cyclical parthenogenesis and should in particular be very useful for improving our understanding of pest and microbial population biology. PMID:26858112

  19. Impact of population size on market demand under a market economy.

    PubMed

    Li, Y

    1996-01-01

    This article presents an analysis of the relationship between population size and market demand in China. It is argued that a smaller elasticity of a product is related to a greater impact of the size of population on the consumption of such a product. Greater elasticity reduces the impact of population. The impact of population is also mediated by average salary and salary structure. Salary structure affects prices, and prices affect supply and demand, which affect consumption. In a market-oriented economic system, the impact of population size on market demand affects supply and demand and prices. Current market demand reflects the effect of supply and demand in previous periods. Current population size will affect future market demand through prices and supply elasticity. Population changes are slow, and consumption changes are slow. The slowness of the process of change means there is time to adjust production and distribution in order to achieve stability in market supply. Control of price increases and inflation will promote economic growth, social stability, and improvement in China's socialist market economic system. It is argued that the supply of bicycles is elastic. Despite increased investment, labor, and fixed assets, profits will not grow. However the entertainment industry, as well as education, public welfare, urban utilities, noncommercialized housing, and telephones are less elastic. A large consumer population and a smaller supply elasticity result in high costs of installation, which are made higher by the state monopoly. It is argued that in China it is necessary to regulate certain necessities with less market elasticity in order to be consistent with optimum allocation of resources. PMID:12291968

  20. Size-dependent mortality induces life-history changes mediated through population dynamical feedbacks.

    PubMed

    van Kooten, Tobias; Persson, Lennart; de Roos, André M

    2007-08-01

    The majority of taxa grow significantly during life history, which often leads to individuals of the same species having different ecological roles, depending on their size or life stage. One aspect of life history that changes during ontogeny is mortality. When individual growth and development are resource dependent, changes in mortality can affect the outcome of size-dependent intraspecific resource competition, in turn affecting both life history and population dynamics. We study the outcome of varying size-dependent mortality on two life-history types, one that feeds on the same resource throughout life history and another that can alternatively cannibalize smaller conspecifics. Compensatory responses in the life history dampen the effect of certain types of size-dependent mortality, while other types of mortality lead to dramatic changes in life history and population dynamics, including population (de-)stabilization, and the growth of cannibalistic giants. These responses differ strongly among the two life-history types. Our analysis provides a mechanistic understanding of the population-level effects that come about through the interaction between individual growth and size-dependent mortality, mediated by resource dependence in individual vital rates. PMID:17874376

  1. Surprising migration and population size dynamics in ancient Iberian brown bears (Ursus arctos)

    PubMed Central

    Valdiosera, Cristina E.; García-Garitagoitia, José Luis; Garcia, Nuria; Doadrio, Ignacio; Thomas, Mark G.; Hänni, Catherine; Arsuaga, Juan-Luis; Barnes, Ian; Hofreiter, Michael; Orlando, Ludovic; Götherström, Anders

    2008-01-01

    The endangered brown bear populations (Ursus arctos) in Iberia have been suggested to be the last fragments of the brown bear population that served as recolonization stock for large parts of Europe during the Pleistocene. Conservation efforts are intense, and results are closely monitored. However, the efforts are based on the assumption that the Iberian bears are a unique unit that has evolved locally for an extended period. We have sequenced mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from ancient Iberian bear remains and analyzed them as a serial dataset, monitoring changes in diversity and occurrence of European haplogroups over time. Using these data, we show that the Iberian bear population has experienced a dynamic, recent evolutionary history. Not only has the population undergone mitochondrial gene flow from other European brown bears, but the effective population size also has fluctuated substantially. We conclude that the Iberian bear population has been a fluid evolutionary unit, developed by gene flow from other populations and population bottlenecks, far from being in genetic equilibrium or isolated from other brown bear populations. Thus, the current situation is highly unusual and the population may in fact be isolated for the first time in its history. PMID:18347332

  2. The influence of simulated exploitation on Patella vulgata populations: protandric sex change is size-dependent.

    PubMed

    Borges, Carla D G; Hawkins, Stephen J; Crowe, Tasman P; Doncaster, C Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Grazing mollusks are used as a food resource worldwide, and limpets are harvested commercially for both local consumption and export in several countries. This study describes a field experiment to assess the effects of simulated human exploitation of limpets Patella vulgata on their population ecology in terms of protandry (age-related sex change from male to female), growth, recruitment, migration, and density regulation. Limpet populations at two locations in southwest England were artificially exploited by systematic removal of the largest individuals for 18 months in plots assigned to three treatments at each site: no (control), low, and high exploitation. The shell size at sex change (L 50: the size at which there is a 50:50 sex ratio) decreased in response to the exploitation treatments, as did the mean shell size of sexual stages. Size-dependent sex change was indicated by L 50 occurring at smaller sizes in treatments than controls, suggesting an earlier switch to females. Mean shell size of P. vulgata neuters changed little under different levels of exploitation, while males and females both decreased markedly in size with exploitation. No differences were detected in the relative abundances of sexual stages, indicating some compensation for the removal of the bigger individuals via recruitment and sex change as no migratory patterns were detected between treatments. At the end of the experiment, 0-15 mm recruits were more abundant at one of the locations but no differences were detected between treatments. We conclude that sex change in P. vulgata can be induced at smaller sizes by reductions in density of the largest individuals reducing interage class competition. Knowledge of sex-change adaptation in exploited limpet populations should underpin strategies to counteract population decline and improve rocky shore conservation and resource management. PMID:26843935

  3. Habitat corridors facilitate genetic resilience irrespective of species dispersal abilities or population sizes

    PubMed Central

    Christie, Mark R; Knowles, L Lacey

    2015-01-01

    Corridors are frequently proposed to connect patches of habitat that have become isolated due to human-mediated alterations to the landscape. While it is understood that corridors can facilitate dispersal between patches, it remains unknown whether corridors can mitigate the negative genetic effects for entire communities modified by habitat fragmentation. These negative genetic effects, which include reduced genetic diversity, limit the potential for populations to respond to selective agents such as disease epidemics and global climate change. We provide clear evidence from a forward-time, agent-based model (ABM) that corridors can facilitate genetic resilience in fragmented habitats across a broad range of species dispersal abilities and population sizes. Our results demonstrate that even modest increases in corridor width decreased the genetic differentiation between patches and increased the genetic diversity and effective population size within patches. Furthermore, we document a trade-off between corridor quality and corridor design whereby populations connected by high-quality habitat (i.e., low corridor mortality) are more resilient to suboptimal corridor design (e.g., long and narrow corridors). The ABM also revealed that species interactions can play a greater role than corridor design in shaping the genetic responses of populations to corridors. These results demonstrate how corridors can provide long-term conservation benefits that extend beyond targeted taxa and scale up to entire communities irrespective of species dispersal abilities or population sizes. PMID:26029259

  4. Survival and population size estimation in raptor studies: A comparison of two methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gould, William R.; Fuller, Mark R.

    1995-01-01

    ABSTRACT.--The Jolly-Seber model is a capture-recapture model that can provide less-biased survival and population size estimates than those produced from simple counting procedures. Parameter estimation by simple counts and Jolly-Seber methods are based on certain assumptions that directly determine the validity of estimates. Evuluation of assumptions for parameter estimation is a focus of this paper and used as a basis for determining which methods are more likely to produce better estimates. An example of population size and survival estimation for a peregrine falcon(Falco peregrinus) population in western Greenland is used to compare the two methods.Based on results from the Greenland peregrine population, and an assessment of the underlying assumptions of simple counts and the Jolly-Seber model,we suggest that Jolly-Seber estimation of survival and population size is less biased than simple counts in studies with marked birds. We recommend the use of a Jolly-Seber analysis of data when capture-recapture techniques are employed in raptor population studies.

  5. Asian Elephants in China: Estimating Population Size and Evaluating Habitat Suitability

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Li; Dong, Lu; Lin, Liu; Feng, Limin; Yan, Fan; Wang, Lanxin; Guo, Xianming; Luo, Aidong

    2015-01-01

    We monitored the last remaining Asian elephant populations in China over the past decade. Using DNA tools and repeat genotyping, we estimated the population sizes from 654 dung samples collected from various areas. Combined with morphological individual identifications from over 6,300 elephant photographs taken in the wild, we estimated that the total Asian elephant population size in China is between 221 and 245. Population genetic structure and diversity were examined using a 556-bp fragment of mitochondrial DNA, and 24 unique haplotypes were detected from DNA analysis of 178 individuals. A phylogenetic analysis revealed two highly divergent clades of Asian elephants, α and β, present in Chinese populations. Four populations (Mengla, Shangyong, Mengyang, and Pu’Er) carried mtDNA from the α clade, and only one population (Nangunhe) carried mtDNA belonging to the β clade. Moreover, high genetic divergence was observed between the Nangunhe population and the other four populations; however, genetic diversity among the five populations was low, possibly due to limited gene flow because of habitat fragmentation. The expansion of rubber plantations, crop cultivation, and villages along rivers and roads had caused extensive degradation of natural forest in these areas. This had resulted in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and had formed artificial barriers that inhibited elephant migration. Using Geographic Information System, Global Positioning System, and Remote Sensing technology, we found that the area occupied by rubber plantations, tea farms, and urban settlements had dramatically increased over the past 40 years, resulting in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and forming artificial barriers that inhibit elephant migration. The restoration of ecological corridors to facilitate gene exchange among isolated elephant populations and the establishment of cross-boundary protected areas between China and Laos to secure their natural

  6. Asian elephants in China: estimating population size and evaluating habitat suitability.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Li; Dong, Lu; Lin, Liu; Feng, Limin; Yan, Fan; Wang, Lanxin; Guo, Xianming; Luo, Aidong

    2015-01-01

    We monitored the last remaining Asian elephant populations in China over the past decade. Using DNA tools and repeat genotyping, we estimated the population sizes from 654 dung samples collected from various areas. Combined with morphological individual identifications from over 6,300 elephant photographs taken in the wild, we estimated that the total Asian elephant population size in China is between 221 and 245. Population genetic structure and diversity were examined using a 556-bp fragment of mitochondrial DNA, and 24 unique haplotypes were detected from DNA analysis of 178 individuals. A phylogenetic analysis revealed two highly divergent clades of Asian elephants, α and β, present in Chinese populations. Four populations (Mengla, Shangyong, Mengyang, and Pu'Er) carried mtDNA from the α clade, and only one population (Nangunhe) carried mtDNA belonging to the β clade. Moreover, high genetic divergence was observed between the Nangunhe population and the other four populations; however, genetic diversity among the five populations was low, possibly due to limited gene flow because of habitat fragmentation. The expansion of rubber plantations, crop cultivation, and villages along rivers and roads had caused extensive degradation of natural forest in these areas. This had resulted in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and had formed artificial barriers that inhibited elephant migration. Using Geographic Information System, Global Positioning System, and Remote Sensing technology, we found that the area occupied by rubber plantations, tea farms, and urban settlements had dramatically increased over the past 40 years, resulting in the loss and fragmentation of elephant habitats and forming artificial barriers that inhibit elephant migration. The restoration of ecological corridors to facilitate gene exchange among isolated elephant populations and the establishment of cross-boundary protected areas between China and Laos to secure their natural

  7. Sequence diversity under the multispecies coalescent with Yule process and constant population size.

    PubMed

    Heled, Joseph

    2012-03-01

    The study of sequence diversity under phylogenetic models is now classic. Theoretical studies of diversity under the Kingman coalescent appeared shortly after the introduction of the coalescent. In this paper we revisit this topic under the multispecies coalescent, an extension of the single population model to multiple populations. We derive exact formulas for the sequence dissimilarity of two sequences drawn at random under a basic multispecies setup. The multispecies model uses three parameters--the species tree birth rate under the pure birth process (Yule), the species effective population size and the mutation rate. We also discuss the effects of relaxing some of the model assumptions. PMID:22210390

  8. Quantifying the Variation in the Effective Population Size Within a Genome

    PubMed Central

    Gossmann, Toni I.; Woolfit, Megan; Eyre-Walker, Adam

    2011-01-01

    The effective population size (Ne) is one of the most fundamental parameters in population genetics. It is thought to vary across the genome as a consequence of differences in the rate of recombination and the density of selected sites due to the processes of genetic hitchhiking and background selection. Although it is known that there is intragenomic variation in the effective population size in some species, it is not known whether this is widespread or how much variation in the effective population size there is. Here, we test whether the effective population size varies across the genome, between protein-coding genes, in 10 eukaryotic species by considering whether there is significant variation in neutral diversity, taking into account differences in the mutation rate between loci by using the divergence between species. In most species we find significant evidence of variation. We investigate whether the variation in Ne is correlated to recombination rate and the density of selected sites in four species, for which these data are available. We find that Ne is positively correlated to recombination rate in one species, Drosophila melanogaster, and negatively correlated to a measure of the density of selected sites in two others, humans and Arabidopsis thaliana. However, much of the variation remains unexplained. We use a hierarchical Bayesian analysis to quantify the amount of variation in the effective population size and show that it is quite modest in all species—most genes have an Ne that is within a few fold of all other genes. Nonetheless we show that this modest variation in Ne is sufficient to cause significant differences in the efficiency of natural selection across the genome, by demonstrating that the ratio of the number of nonsynonymous to synonymous polymorphisms is significantly correlated to synonymous diversity and estimates of Ne, even taking into account the obvious nonindependence between these measures. PMID:21954163

  9. Short-Term Genetic Changes: Evaluating Effective Population Size Estimates in a Comprehensively Described Brown Trout (Salmo trutta) Population

    PubMed Central

    Serbezov, Dimitar; Jorde, Per Erik; Bernatchez, Louis; Olsen, Esben Moland; Vøllestad, L. Asbjørn

    2012-01-01

    The effective population size (Ne) is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate in wild populations as it is influenced by a number of parameters that are difficult to delineate in natural systems. The different methods that are used to estimate Ne are affected variously by different processes at the population level, such as the life-history characteristics of the organism, gene flow, and population substructure, as well as by the frequency patterns of genetic markers used and the sampling design. Here, we compare Ne estimates obtained by different genetic methods and from demographic data and elucidate how the estimates are affected by various factors in an exhaustively sampled and comprehensively described natural brown trout (Salmo trutta) system. In general, the methods yielded rather congruent estimates, and we ascribe that to the adequate genotyping and exhaustive sampling. Effects of violating the assumptions of the different methods were nevertheless apparent. In accordance with theoretical studies, skewed allele frequencies would underestimate temporal allele frequency changes and thereby upwardly bias Ne if not accounted for. Overlapping generations and iteroparity would also upwardly bias Ne when applied to temporal samples taken over short time spans. Gene flow from a genetically not very dissimilar source population decreases temporal allele frequency changes and thereby acts to increase estimates of Ne. Our study reiterates the importance of adequate sampling, quantification of life-history parameters and gene flow, and incorporating these data into the Ne estimation. PMID:22466040

  10. Effective population sizes and temporal stability of genetic structure in Rana pipiens, the northern leopard frog.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, Eric A; Schueler, Frederick W; Blouin, Michael S

    2004-11-01

    Although studies of population genetic structure are very common, whether genetic structure is stable over time has been assessed for very few taxa. The question of stability over time is particularly interesting for frogs because it is not clear to what extent frogs exist in dynamic metapopulations with frequent extinction and recolonization, or in stable patches at equilibrium between drift and gene flow. In this study we collected tissue samples from the same five populations of leopard frogs, Rana pipiens, over a 22-30 year time interval (11-15 generations). Genetic structure among the populations was very stable, suggesting that these populations were not undergoing frequent extinction and colonization. We also estimated the effective size of each population from the change in allele frequencies over time. There exist few estimates of effective size for frog populations, but the data available suggest that ranid frogs may have much larger ratios of effective size (Ne) to census size (Nc) than toads (bufonidae). Our results indicate that R. pipiens populations have effective sizes on the order of hundreds to at most a few thousand frogs, and Ne/Nc ratios in the range of 0.1-1.0. These estimates of Ne/Nc are consistent with those estimated for other Rana species. Finally, we compared the results of three temporal methods for estimating Ne. Moment and pseudolikelihood methods that assume a closed population gave the most similar point estimates, although the moment estimates were consistently two to four times larger. Wang and Whitlock's new method that jointly estimates Ne and the rate of immigration into a population (m) gave much smaller estimates of Ne and implausibly large estimates of m. This method requires knowing allele frequencies in the source of immigrants, but was thought to be insensitive to inexact estimates. In our case the method may have failed because we did not know the true source of immigrants for each population. The method may be more

  11. Rapid assessment of population size by area sampling in disaster situations.

    PubMed

    Brown, V; Jacquier, G; Coulombier, D; Balandine, S; Belanger, F; Legros, D

    2001-06-01

    In the initial phase of a complex emergency, an immediate population size assessment method, based on area sampling, is vital to provide relief workers with a rapid population estimate in refugee camps. In the past decade, the method has been progressively improved; six examples are presented in this paper and questions raised about its statistical validity as well as important issues for further research. There are two stages. The first is to map the camp by registering all of its co-ordinates. In the second stage, the total camp population is estimated by counting the population living in a limited number of square blocks of known surface area, and by extrapolating average population calculated per block to the total camp surface. In six camps selected in Asia and Africa, between 1992 and 1994, population figures were estimated within one to two days. After measuring all external limits, surfaces were calculated and ranged between 121,300 and 2,770,000 square metres. In five camps, the mean average population per square was obtained using blocks 25 by 25 meters (625 m2), and for another camp with blocks 100 by 100 m2. In three camps, different population density zones were defined. Total camp populations obtained were 16,800 to 113,600. Although this method is a valuable public health tool in emergency situations, it has several limitations. Issues related to population density and number and size of blocks to be selected require further research for the method to be better validated. PMID:11434235

  12. METER-SIZED MOONLET POPULATION IN SATURN'S C RING AND CASSINI DIVISION

    SciTech Connect

    Baillie, Kevin; Colwell, Joshua E.; Esposito, Larry W.; Lewis, Mark C.

    2013-06-01

    Stellar occultations observed by the Cassini Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrograph reveal the presence of transparent holes a few meters to a few tens of meters in radial extent in otherwise optically thick regions of the C ring and the Cassini Division. We attribute the holes to gravitational disturbances generated by a population of {approx}10 m boulders in the rings that is intermediate in size between the background ring particle size distribution and the previously observed {approx}100 m propeller moonlets in the A ring. The size distribution of these boulders is described by a shallower power-law than the one that describes the ring particle size distribution. The number and size distribution of these boulders could be explained by limited accretion processes deep within Saturn's Roche zone.

  13. Reduction of Salmonella Enteritidis Population Sizes on Almond Kernels with Infrared Heat

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Catalytic infrared (IR) heating was investigated to determine its effect on Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis population sizes on raw almond kernels. Using a double-sided catalytic infrared heating system, a radiation intensity of 5458 W/m2 caused a fast temperature increase at the kernel surf...

  14. Estimating effective population size and migration rates from genetic samples over space and time.

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jinliang; Whitlock, Michael C

    2003-01-01

    In the past, moment and likelihood methods have been developed to estimate the effective population size (N(e)) on the basis of the observed changes of marker allele frequencies over time, and these have been applied to a large variety of species and populations. Such methods invariably make the critical assumption of a single isolated population receiving no immigrants over the study interval. For most populations in the real world, however, migration is not negligible and can substantially bias estimates of N(e) if it is not accounted for. Here we extend previous moment and maximum-likelihood methods to allow the joint estimation of N(e) and migration rate (m) using genetic samples over space and time. It is shown that, compared to genetic drift acting alone, migration results in changes in allele frequency that are greater in the short term and smaller in the long term, leading to under- and overestimation of N(e), respectively, if it is ignored. Extensive simulations are run to evaluate the newly developed moment and likelihood methods, which yield generally satisfactory estimates of both N(e) and m for populations with widely different effective sizes and migration rates and patterns, given a reasonably large sample size and number of markers. PMID:12586728

  15. The influence of persistent individual differences and age at maturity on effective population size

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Aline Magdalena; Engen, Steinar; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

    2011-01-01

    Ratios of effective populations size, Ne, to census population size, N, are used as a measure of genetic drift in populations. Several life-history parameters have been shown to affect these ratios, including mating system and age at sexual maturation. Using a stochastic matrix model, we examine how different levels of persistent individual differences in mating success among males may affect Ne/N, and how this relates to generation time. Individual differences of this type are shown to cause a lower Ne/N ratio than would be expected when mating is independent among seasons. Examining the way in which age at maturity affects Ne/N, we find that both the direction and magnitude of the effect depends on the survival rate of juveniles in the population. In particular, when maturation is delayed, lowered juvenile survival causes higher levels of genetic drift. In addition, predicted shifts in Ne/N with changing age at maturity are shown to be dependent on which of the commonly used definitions of census population size, N, is employed. Our results demonstrate that patterns of mating success, as well as juvenile survival probabilities, have substantial effects on rates of genetic drift. PMID:21436183

  16. Prey size and scramble vs. contest competition in a social spider: implications for population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Sharpe, Ruth V; Avilés, Leticia

    2016-09-01

    There are many benefits of group living, but also substantial costs, one of which is competition for resources. How scarce food resources are distributed among different members of a population or social group - whether via scramble or contest competition - can influence not only the variance in individual fitness, but also the stability and therefore survival of the group or population. Attributes of the food resources themselves, such as their size, may influence the type of intraspecific competition that occurs and therefore the intrinsic stability of a group or population. By experimentally manipulating the size of prey fed to artificial colonies of the social spider Anelosimus eximius, we investigated whether prey size could alter the degree of scramble vs. contest competition that takes place and, thus, potentially influence colony population dynamics. We found that large prey were shared more evenly than small prey and that individuals in poor condition were more likely to feed when prey were large than when prey were small. Additionally, we show that individuals participating in prey capture are also more likely to feed on the captured prey. We developed a simple mathematical model to explore the prey sizes that would be energetically worth defending, i.e. prey that are 'economically defendable'. The model shows that neither very small prey, nor prey above a certain size is worth monopolizing, with only intermediate size prey being 'economically defendable'. We therefore suggest the small and large prey in our experiment corresponds to our model's intermediate and large prey categories, respectively. As the size of prey captured by social spider colonies increases with colony size, our findings suggest that scramble competition may predominate in large colonies. Scramble competition, combined with the fact that prey biomass per capita declines as colonies grow beyond a certain size, would then explain why extremely large colonies of this social spider may

  17. Extending Zelterman's approach for robust estimation of population size to zero-truncated clustered Data.

    PubMed

    Navaratna, W C W; Del Rio Vilas, Victor J; Böhning, Dankmar

    2008-08-01

    Estimation of population size with missing zero-class is an important problem that is encountered in epidemiological assessment studies. Fitting a Poisson model to the observed data by the method of maximum likelihood and estimation of the population size based on this fit is an approach that has been widely used for this purpose. In practice, however, the Poisson assumption is seldom satisfied. Zelterman (1988) has proposed a robust estimator for unclustered data that works well in a wide class of distributions applicable for count data. In the work presented here, we extend this estimator to clustered data. The estimator requires fitting a zero-truncated homogeneous Poisson model by maximum likelihood and thereby using a Horvitz-Thompson estimator of population size. This was found to work well, when the data follow the hypothesized homogeneous Poisson model. However, when the true distribution deviates from the hypothesized model, the population size was found to be underestimated. In the search of a more robust estimator, we focused on three models that use all clusters with exactly one case, those clusters with exactly two cases and those with exactly three cases to estimate the probability of the zero-class and thereby use data collected on all the clusters in the Horvitz-Thompson estimator of population size. Loss in efficiency associated with gain in robustness was examined based on a simulation study. As a trade-off between gain in robustness and loss in efficiency, the model that uses data collected on clusters with at most three cases to estimate the probability of the zero-class was found to be preferred in general. In applications, we recommend obtaining estimates from all three models and making a choice considering the estimates from the three models, robustness and the loss in efficiency. PMID:18663764

  18. Mobile elements reveal small population size in the ancient ancestors of Homo sapiens

    PubMed Central

    Huff, Chad D.; Xing, Jinchuan; Rogers, Alan R.; Witherspoon, David; Jorde, Lynn B.

    2010-01-01

    The genealogies of different genetic loci vary in depth. The deeper the genealogy, the greater the chance that it will include a rare event, such as the insertion of a mobile element. Therefore, the genealogy of a region that contains a mobile element is on average older than that of the rest of the genome. In a simple demographic model, the expected time to most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) is doubled if a rare insertion is present. We test this expectation by examining single nucleotide polymorphisms around polymorphic Alu insertions from two completely sequenced human genomes. The estimated TMRCA for regions containing a polymorphic insertion is two times larger than the genomic average (P < <10−30), as predicted. Because genealogies that contain polymorphic mobile elements are old, they are shaped largely by the forces of ancient population history and are insensitive to recent demographic events, such as bottlenecks and expansions. Remarkably, the information in just two human DNA sequences provides substantial information about ancient human population size. By comparing the likelihood of various demographic models, we estimate that the effective population size of human ancestors living before 1.2 million years ago was 18,500, and we can reject all models where the ancient effective population size was larger than 26,000. This result implies an unusually small population for a species spread across the entire Old World, particularly in light of the effective population sizes of chimpanzees (21,000) and gorillas (25,000), which each inhabit only one part of a single continent. PMID:20133859

  19. Population size and trend of Yellow-billed Loons in northern Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Earnst, Susan L.; Stehn, R.A.; Platte, Robert; Larned, W.W.; Mallek, E.J.

    2005-01-01

    The Yellow-billed Loon (Gavia adamsii) is of conservation concern due to its restricted range, small population size, specific habitat requirements, and perceived threats to its breeding and wintering habitat. Within the U.S., this species breeds almost entirely within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, nearly all of which is open, or proposed to be opened, for oil development. Rigorous estimates of Yellow-billed Loon population size and trend are lacking but essential for informed conservation. We used two annual aerial waterfowl surveys, conducted 1986a??2003 and 1992a??2003, to estimate population size and trend on northern Alaskan breeding grounds. In estimating population trend, we used mixed-effects regression models to reduce bias and sampling error associated with improvement in observer skill and annual effects of spring phenology. The estimated population trend on Alaskan breeding grounds since 1986 was near 0 with an estimated annual change of a??0.9% (95% CI of a??3.6% to +1.8%). The estimated population size, averaged over the past 12 years and adjusted by a correction factor based on an intensive, lake-circling, aerial survey method, was 2221 individuals (95% CI of 1206a??3235) in early June and 3369 individuals (95% CI of 1910a??4828) in late June. Based on estimates from other studies of the proportion of loons nesting in a given year, it is likely that <1000 nesting pairs inhabit northern Alaska in most years. The highest concentration of Yellow-billed Loons occurred between the Meade and Ikpikpuk Rivers; and across all of northern Alaska, 53% of recorded sightings occurred within 12% of the area.

  20. Population size, growth and movements of Anguilla australis in a small lake.

    PubMed

    Jellyman, D J; Crow, S K

    2016-06-01

    To study growth rates, movements and estimate population size of shortfin eels Anguilla australis in a small lake (2·5 ha) near Christchurch, New Zealand, 617 A. australis were tagged with PIT tags. Tag retention was high (95%) and over the seven recapture events spread over 2 years, 55% of tagged A. australis were recaptured. Growth of recaptured A. australis averaged 13·1 mm year(-1) and declined slightly with increasing total length. Distance moved from original capture site increased with increasing time at large. Population estimates of A. australis > 400 mm (susceptible to capture by fyke net) from recaptures of individuals averaged 1451 A. australis, with a biomass of 170 kg ha(-1) . An average of 6·6% of the estimated total population matured as male silver A. australis each year. Results from radio-tracking of four A. australis gave an average nightly foraging area of 2780 m(2) , and there was no apparent preference for inshore movement (within 5-6 m of the shoreline) or offshore movement. Fyke-net efficiency (total catch relative to the estimated total population available to each net) measured over four consecutive nights fishing was 88%. The lack of precision of the shoreline triangulation system used, ±10 m, meant that the positional data were considered too coarse to be used in a proposed novel population estimation technique based on determining population size within foraging areas. PMID:27126719

  1. Dispersal, niche breadth and population extinction: colonization ratios predict range size in North American dragonflies.

    PubMed

    McCauley, Shannon J; Davis, Christopher J; Werner, Earl E; Robeson, Michael S

    2014-07-01

    Species' range sizes are shaped by fundamental differences in species' ecological and evolutionary characteristics, and understanding the mechanisms determining range size can shed light on the factors responsible for generating and structuring biological diversity. Moreover, because geographic range size is associated with a species' risk of extinction and their ability to respond to global changes in climate and land use, understanding these mechanisms has important conservation implications. Despite the hypotheses that dispersal behaviour is a strong determinant of species range areas, few data are available to directly compare the relationship between dispersal behaviour and range size. Here, we overcome this limitation by combining data from a multispecies dispersal experiment with additional species-level trait data that are commonly hypothesized to affect range size (e.g. niche breadth, local abundance and body size.). This enables us to examine the relationship between these species-level traits and range size across North America for fifteen dragonfly species. Ten models based on a priori predictions about the relationship between species traits and range size were evaluated and two models were identified as good predictors of species range size. These models indicated that only two species' level traits, dispersal behaviour and niche breadth were strongly related to range size. The evidence from these two models indicated that dragonfly species that disperse more often and further had larger North American ranges. Extinction and colonization dynamics are expected to be a key linkage between dispersal behaviour and range size in dragonflies. To evaluate how extinction and colonization dynamics among dragonflies were related to range size we used an independent data set of extinction and colonization rates for eleven dragonfly species and assessed the relationship between these populations rates and North American range areas for these species. We found a

  2. Estimating Effective Population Size from Linkage Disequilibrium between Unlinked Loci: Theory and Application to Fruit Fly Outbreak Populations

    PubMed Central

    Sved, John A; Cameron, Emilie C.; Gilchrist, A. Stuart

    2013-01-01

    There is a substantial literature on the use of linkage disequilibrium (LD) to estimate effective population size using unlinked loci. The estimates are extremely sensitive to the sampling process, and there is currently no theory to cope with the possible biases. We derive formulae for the analysis of idealised populations mating at random with multi-allelic (microsatellite) loci. The ‘Burrows composite index’ is introduced in a novel way with a ‘composite haplotype table’. We show that in a sample of diploid size , the mean value of or from the composite haplotype table is biased by a factor of , rather than the usual factor for a conventional haplotype table. But analysis of population data using these formulae leads to estimates that are unrealistically low. We provide theory and simulation to show that this bias towards low estimates is due to null alleles, and introduce a randomised permutation correction to compensate for the bias. We also consider the effect of introducing a within-locus disequilibrium factor to , and find that this factor leads to a bias in the estimate. However this bias can be overcome using the same randomised permutation correction, to yield an altered with lower variance than the original , and one that is also insensitive to null alleles. The resulting formulae are used to provide estimates on 40 samples of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni, from populations with widely divergent expectations. Linkage relationships are known for most of the microsatellite loci in this species. We find that there is little difference in the estimated values from using known unlinked loci as compared to using all loci, which is important for conservation studies where linkage relationships are unknown. PMID:23894410

  3. Non-Invasive Genetic Mark-Recapture as a Means to Study Population Sizes and Marking Behaviour of the Elusive Eurasian Otter (Lutra lutra)

    PubMed Central

    Lampa, Simone; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Gruber, Bernd; Klenke, Reinhard; Henle, Klaus

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying population status is a key objective in many ecological studies, but is often difficult to achieve for cryptic or elusive species. Here, non-invasive genetic capture-mark-recapture (CMR) methods have become a very important tool to estimate population parameters, such as population size and sex ratio. The Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) is such an elusive species of management concern and is increasingly studied using faecal-based genetic sampling. For unbiased sex ratios or population size estimates, the marking behaviour of otters has to be taken into account. Using 2132 otter faeces of a wild otter population in Upper Lusatia (Saxony, Germany) collected over six years (2006–2012), we studied the marking behaviour and applied closed population CMR models accounting for genetic misidentification to estimate population sizes and sex ratios. We detected a sex difference in the marking behaviour of otters with jelly samples being more often defecated by males and placed actively exposed on frequently used marking sites. Since jelly samples are of higher DNA quality, it is important to not only concentrate on this kind of samples or marking sites and to invest in sufficiently high numbers of repetitions of non-jelly samples to ensure an unbiased sex ratio. Furthermore, otters seemed to increase marking intensity due to the handling of their spraints, hence accounting for this behavioural response could be important. We provided the first precise population size estimate with confidence intervals for Upper Lusatia (for 2012: N^ = 20 ± 2.1, 95% CI = 16–25) and showed that spraint densities are not a reliable index for abundances. We further demonstrated that when minks live in sympatry with otters and have comparably high densities, a non-negligible number of supposed otter samples are actually of mink origin. This could severely bias results of otter monitoring if samples are not genetically identified. PMID:25973884

  4. Non-Invasive Genetic Mark-Recapture as a Means to Study Population Sizes and Marking Behaviour of the Elusive Eurasian Otter (Lutra lutra).

    PubMed

    Lampa, Simone; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Gruber, Bernd; Klenke, Reinhard; Henle, Klaus

    2015-01-01

    Quantifying population status is a key objective in many ecological studies, but is often difficult to achieve for cryptic or elusive species. Here, non-invasive genetic capture-mark-recapture (CMR) methods have become a very important tool to estimate population parameters, such as population size and sex ratio. The Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra) is such an elusive species of management concern and is increasingly studied using faecal-based genetic sampling. For unbiased sex ratios or population size estimates, the marking behaviour of otters has to be taken into account. Using 2132 otter faeces of a wild otter population in Upper Lusatia (Saxony, Germany) collected over six years (2006-2012), we studied the marking behaviour and applied closed population CMR models accounting for genetic misidentification to estimate population sizes and sex ratios. We detected a sex difference in the marking behaviour of otters with jelly samples being more often defecated by males and placed actively exposed on frequently used marking sites. Since jelly samples are of higher DNA quality, it is important to not only concentrate on this kind of samples or marking sites and to invest in sufficiently high numbers of repetitions of non-jelly samples to ensure an unbiased sex ratio. Furthermore, otters seemed to increase marking intensity due to the handling of their spraints, hence accounting for this behavioural response could be important. We provided the first precise population size estimate with confidence intervals for Upper Lusatia (for 2012: N = 20 ± 2.1, 95% CI = 16-25) and showed that spraint densities are not a reliable index for abundances. We further demonstrated that when minks live in sympatry with otters and have comparably high densities, a non-negligible number of supposed otter samples are actually of mink origin. This could severely bias results of otter monitoring if samples are not genetically identified. PMID:25973884

  5. Signaling among neighboring plants and the development of size inequalities in plant populations.

    PubMed Central

    Ballaré, C L; Scopel, A L; Jordan, E T; Vierstra, R D

    1994-01-01

    Transgenic tobacco plants that express an oat phytochrome gene (phyA) under control of the cauliflower mosaic virus (CaMV) 35S promoter and display altered photophysiology were used to test the role of light as a vehicle of information in dominance relationships between neighboring plants. Compared with the isogenic wild type, phyA-overexpressing plants showed dramatically reduced morphological responsivity to changes in the red/far red ratio of the incident light and to the proximity of neighboring plants in spacing experiments. In transgenic canopies an increase in stand density caused the small plants of the population to be rapidly suppressed by their neighbors. In wild-type canopies, plants responded to increased density with large morphological changes, and there appeared to be an inverse relationship between the magnitude of this morphological response and the ranking of the individual plant in the population size hierarchy. In these wild-type populations, size inequality increased only moderately with density within the time frame of the experiments. Our results suggest that, in crowded stands, the ability of individual plants to acquire information about their light environment via phytochrome plays a central role in driving architectural changes that, at the population level, delay the development of size differences between neighbors. PMID:7937843

  6. Signaling among neighboring plants and the development of size inequalities in plant populations

    SciTech Connect

    Ballare, C.L. |; Scopel, A.L. |; Jordan, E.T.; Vierstra, R.D.

    1994-10-11

    Transgenic tobacco plants that express an oat phytochrome gene (phyA) under control of the cauliflower mosaic virus (CaMV) 35S promoter and display altered photophysiology were used to test the role of light as a vehicle of information in dominance relationships between neighboring plants. Compared with the isogenic wild type, phyA-overexpressing plants showed dramatically reduced morphological responsivity to changes in the red/far red ratio of the incident light and to the proximity of neighboring plants in spacing experiments. In transgenic canopies an increase in stand density caused the small plants of the population to be rapidly suppressed by their neighbors. In wild-type canopies, plants responded to increased density with large morphological changes, and there appeared to be an inverse relationship between the magnitude of this morphological response and the ranking of the individual plant in the population size hierarchy. In these wild-type populations, size inequality increased only moderately with density within the time frame of the experiments. The results suggest that, in crowded stands, the ability of individual plants to acquire information about their light environment via phytochrome plays a central role in driving architectural changes that, at the population level, delay the development of size differences between neighbors.

  7. Climate change influenced female population sizes through time across the Indonesian archipelago.

    PubMed

    Guillot, Elsa G; Tumonggor, Meryanne K; Lansing, J Stephen; Sudoyo, Herawati; Cox, Murray P

    2013-01-01

    Lying at the crossroads of Asia and the Pacific world, the Indonesian archipelago hosts one of the world's richest accumulations of cultural, linguistic, and genetic variation. While the role of human migration into and around the archipelago is now known in some detail, other aspects of Indonesia's complex history are less understood. Here, we focus on population size changes from the first settlement of Indonesia nearly 50 kya up to the historic era. We reconstructed the past effective population sizes of Indonesian women using mitochondrial DNA sequences from 2,104 individuals in 55 village communities on four islands spanning the Indonesian archipelago (Bali, Flores, Sumba, and Timor). We found little evidence for large fluctuations in effective population size. Most communities grew slowly during the late Pleistocene, peaked 15-20 kya, and subsequently declined slowly into the Holocene. This unexpected pattern may reflect population declines caused by the flooding of lowland hunter/gatherer habitat during sea-level rises following the last glacial maximum. PMID:24297223

  8. Stochastic seasonality and nonlinear density-dependent factors regulate population size in an African rodent

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Leirs, H.; Stenseth, N.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Verhagen, R.; Verheyen, W.

    1997-01-01

    Ecology has long been troubled by the controversy over how populations are regulated. Some ecologists focus on the role of environmental effects, whereas others argue that density-dependent feedback mechanisms are central. The relative importance of both processes is still hotly debated, but clear examples of both processes acting in the same population are rare. Keyfactor analysis (regression of population changes on possible causal factors) and time-series analysis are often used to investigate the presence of density dependence, but such approaches may be biased and provide no information on actual demographic rates. Here we report on both density-dependent and density-independent effects in a murid rodent pest species, the multimammate rat Mastomys natalensis (Smith, 1834), using statistical capture-recapture models. Both effects occur simultaneously, but we also demonstrate that they do not affect all demographic rates in the same way. We have incorporated the obtained estimates of demographic rates in a population dynamics model and show that the observed dynamics are affected by stabilizing nonlinear density-dependent components coupled with strong deterministic and stochastic seasonal components.

  9. Size distribution of retrovirally marked lineages matches prediction from population measurements of cell cycle behavior

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cai, Li; Hayes, Nancy L.; Takahashi, Takao; Caviness, Verne S Jr; Nowakowski, Richard S.

    2002-01-01

    Mechanisms that regulate neuron production in the developing mouse neocortex were examined by using a retroviral lineage marking method to determine the sizes of the lineages remaining in the proliferating population of the ventricular zone during the period of neuron production. The distribution of clade sizes obtained experimentally in four different injection-survival paradigms (E11-E13, E11-E14, E11-E15, and E12-E15) from a total of over 500 labeled lineages was compared with that obtained from three models in which the average behavior of the proliferating population [i.e., the proportion of cells remaining in the proliferative population (P) vs. that exiting the proliferative population (Q)] was quantitatively related to lineage size distribution. In model 1, different proportions of asymmetric, symmetric terminal, and symmetric nonterminal cell divisions coexisted during the entire developmental period. In model 2, the developmental period was divided into two epochs: During the first, asymmetric and symmetric nonterminal cell divisions occurred, but, during the second, asymmetric and symmetric terminal cell divisions occurred. In model 3, the shifts in P and Q are accounted for by changes in the proportions of the two types of symmetric cell divisions without the inclusion of any asymmetric cell divisions. The results obtained from the retroviral experiments were well accounted for by model 1 but not by model 2 or 3. These findings demonstrate that: 1) asymmetric and both types of symmetric cell divisions coexist during the entire period of neurogenesis in the mouse, 2) neuron production is regulated in the proliferative population by the independent decisions of the two daughter cells to reenter S phase, and 3) neurons are produced by both asymmetric and symmetric terminal cell divisions. In addition, the findings mean that cell death and/or tangential movements of cells in the proliferative population occur at only a low rate and that there are no

  10. Measure-valued solutions for a hierarchically size-structured population

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ackleh, Azmy S.; Ito, Kazufumi

    We present a hierarchically size-structured population model with growth, mortality and reproduction rates which depend on a function of the population density ( environment). We present an example to show that if the growth rate is not always a decreasing function of the environment (e.g., a growth which exhibits the Allee effect) the emergence of a singular solution which contains a Dirac delta mass component is possible, even if the vital rates of the individual and the initial data are smooth functions. Therefore, we study the existence of measure-valued solutions. Our approach is based on the vanishing viscosity method.

  11. Evaluation and management implications of uncertainty in a multispecies size-structured model of population and community responses to fishing

    PubMed Central

    Thorpe, Robert B; Le Quesne, Will J F; Luxford, Fay; Collie, Jeremy S; Jennings, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Implementation of an ecosystem approach to fisheries requires advice on trade-offs among fished species and between fisheries yields and biodiversity or food web properties. However, the lack of explicit representation, analysis and consideration of uncertainty in most multispecies models has limited their application in analyses that could support management advice. We assessed the consequences of parameter uncertainty by developing 78 125 multispecies size-structured fish community models, with all combinations of parameters drawn from ranges that spanned parameter values estimated from data and literature. This unfiltered ensemble was reduced to 188 plausible models, the filtered ensemble (FE), by screening outputs against fish abundance data and ecological principles such as requiring species' persistence. Effects of parameter uncertainty on estimates of single-species management reference points for fishing mortality (FMSY, fishing mortality rate providing MSY, the maximum sustainable yield) and biomass (BMSY, biomass at MSY) were evaluated by calculating probability distributions of estimated reference points with the FE. There was a 50% probability that multispecies FMSY could be estimated to within ±25% of its actual value, and a 50% probability that BMSY could be estimated to within ±40% of its actual value. Signal-to-noise ratio was assessed for four community indicators when mortality rates were reduced from current rates to FMSY. The slope of the community size spectrum showed the greatest signal-to-noise ratio, indicating that it would be the most responsive indicator to the change in fishing mortality F. Further, the power of an ongoing international monitoring survey to detect predicted responses of size spectrum slope was higher than for other size-based metrics. Synthesis and applications: Application of the ensemble model approach allows explicit representation of parameter uncertainty and supports advice and management by (i) providing

  12. Predator-driven brain size evolution in natural populations of Trinidadian killifish (Rivulus hartii).

    PubMed

    Walsh, Matthew R; Broyles, Whitnee; Beston, Shannon M; Munch, Stephan B

    2016-07-13

    Vertebrates exhibit extensive variation in relative brain size. It has long been assumed that this variation is the product of ecologically driven natural selection. Yet, despite more than 100 years of research, the ecological conditions that select for changes in brain size are unclear. Recent laboratory selection experiments showed that selection for larger brains is associated with increased survival in risky environments. Such results lead to the prediction that increased predation should favour increased brain size. Work on natural populations, however, foreshadows the opposite trajectory of evolution; increased predation favours increased boldness, slower learning, and may thereby select for a smaller brain. We tested the influence of predator-induced mortality on brain size evolution by quantifying brain size variation in a Trinidadian killifish, Rivulus hartii, from communities that differ in predation intensity. We observed strong genetic differences in male (but not female) brain size between fish communities; second generation laboratory-reared males from sites with predators exhibited smaller brains than Rivulus from sites in which they are the only fish present. Such trends oppose the results of recent laboratory selection experiments and are not explained by trade-offs with other components of fitness. Our results suggest that increased male brain size is favoured in less risky environments because of the fitness benefits associated with faster rates of learning and problem-solving behaviour. PMID:27412278

  13. Comparing capture-recapture methods for estimation of the size of small and medium-sized populations using empirical data on commercial turkey farms in Canada.

    PubMed

    El Allaki, Farouk; Christensen, Jette; Vallières, André

    2015-06-01

    The study objectives were (1) to conduct a systematic review of the performance of capture-recapture methods; (2) to use empirical data to estimate population size in a small-sized population (turkey breeder farms) and a medium-sized population (meat turkey farms) by applying two-source capture-recapture methods (the Lincoln-Petersen, the Chapman, and Chao's lower-bound estimators) and multi-source capture-recapture methods (the log-linear modeling and sample coverage approaches); and (3) to compare the performance of these methods in predicting the true population sizes (2007 data). Our set-up was unique in that we knew the population sizes for turkey breeder farms (99) and meat turkey farms (592) in Canada in 2007, which we applied as our true population sizes, and had surveillance data from the Canadian Notifiable Avian Influenza Surveillance System (2008-2012). We defined each calendar year of sampling as a data source. We confirmed that the two-source capture-recapture methods were sensitive to the violation of the local independence assumption. The log-linear modeling and sample coverage approaches yielded estimates that were closer to the true population sizes than were the estimates provided by the two-source methods for both populations. The performance of both multi-source capture-recapture methods depended on the number of data sources analyzed and the size of the population. Simulation studies are recommended to better understand the limits of each multi-source capture-recapture method. PMID:25542525

  14. Habitat-specific size structure variations in periwinkle populations ( Littorina littorea) caused by biotic factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eschweiler, Nina; Molis, Markus; Buschbaum, Christian

    2009-06-01

    Shell size distribution patterns of marine gastropod populations may vary considerably across different environments. We investigated the size and density structure of genetically continuous periwinkle populations ( Littorina littorea) on an exposed rocky and a sheltered sedimentary environment on two nearby islands in the south-eastern North Sea (German Bight). On the sedimentary shore, periwinkle density (917 ± 722 individuals m-2) was about three times higher than on the rocky shore (296 ± 168 individuals m-2). Mean (9.8 ± 3.9 mm) and maximum (22 mm) shell size of L. littorea on the sedimentary shore were smaller than on the rocky shore (21.5 ± 4.2 and 32 mm, respectively), where only few small snails were found. Additionally, periwinkle shells were thicker and stronger on the rocky than on the sedimentary shore. To ascertain mechanisms responsible for differences in population structures, we examined periwinkles in both environments for growth rate, predation pressure, infection with a shell boring polychaete ( Polydora ciliata) and parasitic infestation by trematodes. A crosswise transplantation experiment revealed better growth conditions on the sedimentary than on the rocky shore. However, crab abundance and prevalence of parasites and P. ciliata in adult snails were higher on the sedimentary shore. Previous investigations showed that crabs prefer large periwinkles infested with P. ciliata. Thus, we suggest that parasites and shell boring P. ciliata in conjunction with an increased crab predation pressure are responsible for low abundances of large periwinkles on the sedimentary shore while high wave exposure may explain low densities of juvenile L. littorea on the rocky shore. We conclude that biotic factors may strongly contribute to observed differences in size structure of the L. littorea populations studied on rocky and sedimentary shores.

  15. Optimal city size and population density for the 21st century.

    PubMed

    Speare A; White, M J

    1990-10-01

    The thesis that large scale urban areas result in greater efficiency, reduced costs, and a better quality of life is reexamined. The environmental and social costs are measured for different scales of settlement. The desirability and perceived problems of a particular place are examined in relation to size of place. The consequences of population decline are considered. New York city is described as providing both opportunities in employment, shopping, and cultural activities as well as a high cost of living, crime, and pollution. The historical development of large cities in the US is described. Immigration has contributed to a greater concentration of population than would have otherwise have occurred. The spatial proximity of goods and services argument (agglomeration economies) has changed with advancements in technology such as roads, trucking, and electronic communication. There is no optimal city size. The overall effect of agglomeration can be assessed by determining whether the markets for goods and labor are adequate to maximize well-being and balance the negative and positive aspects of urbanization. The environmental costs of cities increase with size when air quality, water quality, sewage treatment, and hazardous waste disposal is considered. Smaller scale and lower density cities have the advantages of a lower concentration of pollutants. Also, mobilization for program support is easier with homogenous population. Lower population growth in large cities would contribute to a higher quality of life, since large metropolitan areas have a concentration of immigrants, younger age distributions, and minority groups with higher than average birth rates. The negative consequences of decline can be avoided if reduction of population in large cities takes place gradually. For example, poorer quality housing can be removed for open space. Cities should, however, still attract all classes of people with opportunities equally available. PMID:12227316

  16. N-mixture models for estimating population size from spatially replicated counts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew

    2004-01-01

    Spatial replication is a common theme in count surveys of animals. Such surveys often generate sparse count data from which it is difficult to estimate population size while formally accounting for detection probability. In this article, i describe a class of models (n-mixture models) which allow for estimation of population size from such data. The key idea is to view site-specific population sizes, n, as independent random variables distributed according to some mixing distribution (e.g., Poisson). Prior parameters are estimated from the marginal likelihood of the data, having integrated over the prior distribution for n. Carroll and lombard (1985, journal of american statistical association 80, 423-426) proposed a class of estimators based on mixing over a prior distribution for detection probability. Their estimator can be applied in limited settings, but is sensitive to prior parameter values that are fixed a priori. Spatial replication provides additional information regarding the parameters of the prior distribution on n that is exploited by the n-mixture models and which leads to reasonable estimates of abundance from sparse data. A simulation study demonstrates superior operating characteristics (bias, confidence interval coverage) of the n-mixture estimator compared to the caroll and lombard estimator. Both estimators are applied to point count data on six species of birds illustrating the sensitivity to choice of prior on p and substantially different estimates of abundance as a consequence.

  17. Mixture models for estimating the size of a closed population when capture rates vary among individuals

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dorazio, R.M.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2003-01-01

    We develop a parameterization of the beta-binomial mixture that provides sensible inferences about the size of a closed population when probabilities of capture or detection vary among individuals. Three classes of mixture models (beta-binomial, logistic-normal, and latent-class) are fitted to recaptures of snowshoe hares for estimating abundance and to counts of bird species for estimating species richness. In both sets of data, rates of detection appear to vary more among individuals (animals or species) than among sampling occasions or locations. The estimates of population size and species richness are sensitive to model-specific assumptions about the latent distribution of individual rates of detection. We demonstrate using simulation experiments that conventional diagnostics for assessing model adequacy, such as deviance, cannot be relied on for selecting classes of mixture models that produce valid inferences about population size. Prior knowledge about sources of individual heterogeneity in detection rates, if available, should be used to help select among classes of mixture models that are to be used for inference.

  18. PSO-based multiobjective optimization with dynamic population size and adaptive local archives.

    PubMed

    Leong, Wen-Fung; Yen, Gary G

    2008-10-01

    Recently, various multiobjective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) algorithms have been developed to efficiently and effectively solve multiobjective optimization problems. However, the existing MOPSO designs generally adopt a notion to "estimate" a fixed population size sufficiently to explore the search space without incurring excessive computational complexity. To address the issue, this paper proposes the integration of a dynamic population strategy within the multiple-swarm MOPSO. The proposed algorithm is named dynamic population multiple-swarm MOPSO. An additional feature, adaptive local archives, is designed to improve the diversity within each swarm. Performance metrics and benchmark test functions are used to examine the performance of the proposed algorithm compared with that of five selected MOPSOs and two selected multiobjective evolutionary algorithms. In addition, the computational cost of the proposed algorithm is quantified and compared with that of the selected MOPSOs. The proposed algorithm shows competitive results with improved diversity and convergence and demands less computational cost. PMID:18784011

  19. Recent Evolution in Rattus norvegicus Is Shaped by Declining Effective Population Size

    PubMed Central

    Deinum, Eva E.; Halligan, Daniel L.; Ness, Rob W.; Zhang, Yao-Hua; Cong, Lin; Zhang, Jian-Xu; Keightley, Peter D.

    2015-01-01

    The brown rat, Rattus norvegicus, is both a notorious pest and a frequently used model in biomedical research. By analyzing genome sequences of 12 wild-caught brown rats from their presumed ancestral range in NE China, along with the sequence of a black rat, Rattus rattus, we investigate the selective and demographic forces shaping variation in the genome. We estimate that the recent effective population size (Ne) of this species = 1.24×105, based on silent site diversity. We compare patterns of diversity in these genomes with patterns in multiple genome sequences of the house mouse (Mus musculus castaneus), which has a much larger Ne. This reveals an important role for variation in the strength of genetic drift in mammalian genome evolution. By a Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent analysis of demographic history, we infer that there has been a recent population size bottleneck in wild rats, which we date to approximately 20,000 years ago. Consistent with this, wild rat populations have experienced an increased flux of mildly deleterious mutations, which segregate at higher frequencies in protein-coding genes and conserved noncoding elements. This leads to negative estimates of the rate of adaptive evolution (α) in proteins and conserved noncoding elements, a result which we discuss in relation to the strongly positive estimates observed in wild house mice. As a consequence of the population bottleneck, wild rats also show a markedly slower decay of linkage disequilibrium with physical distance than wild house mice. PMID:26037536

  20. Mixed Fortunes: Ancient Expansion and Recent Decline in Population Size of a Subtropical Montane Primate, the Arunachal Macaque Macaca munzala

    PubMed Central

    Chakraborty, Debapriyo; Sinha, Anindya; Ramakrishnan, Uma

    2014-01-01

    Quaternary glacial oscillations are known to have caused population size fluctuations in many temperate species. Species from subtropical and tropical regions are, however, considerably less studied, despite representing most of the biodiversity hotspots in the world including many highly threatened by anthropogenic activities such as hunting. These regions, consequently, pose a significant knowledge gap in terms of how their fauna have typically responded to past climatic changes. We studied an endangered primate, the Arunachal macaque Macaca munzala, from the subtropical southern edge of the Tibetan plateau, a part of the Eastern Himalaya biodiversity hotspot, also known to be highly threatened due to rampant hunting. We employed a 534 bp-long mitochondrial DNA sequence and 22 autosomal microsatellite loci to investigate the factors that have potentially shaped the demographic history of the species. Analysing the genetic data with traditional statistical methods and advance Bayesian inferential approaches, we demonstrate a limited effect of past glacial fluctuations on the demographic history of the species before the last glacial maximum, approximately 20,000 years ago. This was, however, immediately followed by a significant population expansion possibly due to warmer climatic conditions, approximately 15,000 years ago. These changes may thus represent an apparent balance between that displayed by the relatively climatically stable tropics and those of the more severe, temperate environments of the past. This study also draws attention to the possibility that a cold-tolerant species like the Arunachal macaque, which could withstand historical climate fluctuations and grow once the climate became conducive, may actually be extremely vulnerable to anthropogenic exploitation, as is perhaps indicated by its Holocene ca. 30-fold population decline, approximately 3,500 years ago. Our study thus provides a quantitative appraisal of these demographically important

  1. Extent of Linkage Disequilibrium and Effective Population Size in Four South African Sanga Cattle Breeds

    PubMed Central

    Makina, Sithembile O.; Taylor, Jeremy F.; van Marle-Köster, Este; Muchadeyi, Farai C.; Makgahlela, Mahlako L.; MacNeil, Michael D.; Maiwashe, Azwihangwisi

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge on the extent of linkage disequilibrium (LD) in livestock populations is essential to determine the minimum distance between markers required for effective coverage when conducting genome-wide association studies (GWAS). This study evaluated the extent of LD, persistence of allelic phase and effective population size (Ne) for four Sanga cattle breeds in South Africa including the Afrikaner (n = 44), Nguni (n = 54), Drakensberger (n = 47), and Bonsmara breeds (n = 46), using Angus (n = 31) and Holstein (n = 29) as reference populations. We found that moderate LD extends up to inter-marker distances of 40–60 kb in Angus (0.21) and Holstein (0.21) and up to 100 kb in Afrikaner (0.20). This suggests that genomic selection and association studies performed within these breeds using an average inter-marker r2≥ 0.20 would require about 30,000–50,000 SNPs. However, r2≥ 0.20 extended only up to 10–20 kb in the Nguni and Drakensberger and 20–40 kb in the Bonsmara indicating that 75,000 to 150,000 SNPs would be necessary for GWAS in these breeds. Correlation between alleles at contiguous loci indicated that phase was not strongly preserved between breeds. This suggests the need for breed-specific reference populations in which a much greater density of markers should be scored to identify breed specific haplotypes which may then be imputed into multi-breed commercial populations. Analysis of effective population size based on the extent of LD, revealed Ne = 95 (Nguni), Ne = 87 (Drakensberger), Ne = 77 (Bonsmara), and Ne = 41 (Afrikaner). Results of this study form the basis for implementation of genomic selection programs in the Sanga breeds of South Africa. PMID:26648975

  2. A study on the size of the Chinese population in the middle and late eighteenth century.

    PubMed

    Wang, Y

    1997-01-01

    This study aimed to correct errors in the estimation of the change in population size in China, during the Qing Dynasty (1741-1799). Data were obtained from household census records, the "True Facts of the Qing Dynasty" (Qing Shi Lu), and other historical records of minority, religious, and military population groups. Census records after 1740 included the number of household members instead of registered adult males aged 16-59. During 1741-75, the annual average growth rate was 13.2%. The growth rate during 1742-43 was 15.9% higher than the national average, a measure of undercounts. Underreporting was considered a problem throughout the entire study period. Undercounts in Gansu, Jiangxi, and Hubei provinces are described. Rates and underreporting varied between 30-50% in provinces. The annual average geometric growth rate during 1741-75 was an estimated 14.22%. The growth rate was 8.7% during 1776-94. It is unlikely that growth rates declined in the latter part of the century. The author adjusts figures after 1776 for undercounts of 5.52% annually. The total population undercount of 8 Manshu Banners (9.5 million), other ethnic minorities not registered (6 million), and monks, nuns, priests, and soldiers of the Green Standard (3.6 million) is an estimated 19.1 million. The adjusted total population is 388,150,057 in 1799. The annual growth rate of 14% during 1741-99 was much higher than the global growth rate of 3-5%. The 14% growth rate is likely when the birth rate is 35-38% and the mortality rate is around 20%, rates which agree with 20th century rates. Population growth in the 18th century had far reaching implications for today's population size. PMID:12294141

  3. Finite difference approximations for a size-structured population model with distributed states in the recruitment.

    PubMed

    Ackleh, Azmy S; Farkas, József Z; Li, Xinyu; Ma, Baoling

    2015-01-01

    We consider a size-structured population model where individuals may be recruited into the population at different sizes. First- and second-order finite difference schemes are developed to approximate the solution of the model. The convergence of the approximations to a unique weak solution is proved. We then show that as the distribution of the new recruits become concentrated at the smallest size, the weak solution of the distributed states-at-birth model converges to the weak solution of the classical Gurtin-McCamy-type size-structured model in the weak* topology. Numerical simulations are provided to demonstrate the achievement of the desired accuracy of the two methods for smooth solutions as well as the superior performance of the second-order method in resolving solution-discontinuities. Finally, we provide an example where supercritical Hopf-bifurcation occurs in the limiting single state-at-birth model and we apply the second-order numerical scheme to show that such bifurcation also occurs in the distributed model. PMID:24890735

  4. Bolton tooth size ratio among Sudanese Population sample: A preliminary study

    PubMed Central

    Abdalla Hashim, Ala’a Hayder; Eldin, AL-Hadi Mohi; Hashim, Hayder Abdalla

    2015-01-01

    Background: The study of the mesiodistal size, the morphology of teeth and dental arch may play an important role in clinical dentistry, as well as other sciences such as Forensic Dentistry and Anthropology. Aims: The aims of the present study were to establish tooth-size ratio in Sudanese sample with Class I normal occlusion, to compare the tooth-size ratio between the present study and Bolton's study and between genders. Materials and Methods: The sample consisted of dental casts of 60 subjects (30 males and 30 females). Bolton formula was used to compute the overall and anterior ratio. The correlation coefficient between the anterior ratio and overall ratio was tested, and Student's t-test was used to compare tooth-size ratios between males and females, and between the present study and Bolton's result. Results: The results of the overall and anterior ratio was relatively similar to the mean values reported by Bolton, and there were no statistically significant differences between the mean values of the anterior ratio and the overall ratio between males and females. The correlation coefficient was (r = 0.79). Conclusions: The result obtained was similar to the Caucasian race. However, the reality indicates that the Sudanese population consisted of different racial groups; therefore, the firm conclusion is difficult to draw. Since this sample is not representative for the Sudanese population, hence, a further study with a large sample collected from the different parts of the Sudan is required. PMID:26229948

  5. How to get there from here: the demographic route to optimal population size.

    PubMed

    Bouvier, L F

    1989-12-01

    Most Americans have a "built-in bias" towards growth. 25 years ago, Americans were concerned with too much growth. Zero population growth was accepted as a goal. The American perception has turned around in the last quarter century. From 1957, with a peak of 3.7, US fertility fell below the level needed to replace the population and reached 1.8 in 1972. Not all growth is good. 3 demographic variables account for all population size changes. In any young population, there is a growth momentum that is "built-in." In talking about the next 60-90 years demographic mathematical models show what would happen under constant conditions. The best known is the stable model. A stable condition comes about if age-specific birth and death rates remain constant over a long period of time. A stable population shows a constant growth rate. "No growth" is described as "stationarity." In 1982, migration was included in the open, stable model. There is a momentum for growth in the US population. It is assumed life expectancy will increase in future years. Fertility and immigration should be balanced. There is not much that can be done about fertility. Much, however, can be done to immigration. A maximum population of 300 million with decline starting before 2080 is practical. Lowering fertility to 1.5 live births per women is possible. Not too many Americans want to entirely end immigration. There are problems with advocating that zero population growth be at current levels, or lower. Some increases will happen because of the build-in growth momentum. PMID:12178970

  6. Population Balance Modeling of Polydispersed Bubbly Flow in Continuous-Casting Using Multiple-Size-Group Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zhongqiu; Li, Linmin; Qi, Fengsheng; Li, Baokuan; Jiang, Maofa; Tsukihashi, Fumitaka

    2015-02-01

    A population balance model based on the multiple-size-group (MUSIG) approach has been developed to investigate the polydispersed bubbly flow inside the slab continuous-casting mold and bubble behavior including volume fraction, breakup, coalescence, and size distribution. The Eulerian-Eulerian approach is used to describe the equations of motion of the two-phase flow. All the non-drag forces (lift force, virtual mass force, wall lubrication force, and turbulent dispersion force) and drag force are incorporated in this model. Sato and Sekiguchi model is used to account for the bubble-induced turbulence. Luo and Svendsen model and Prince and Blanch model are used to describe the bubbles breakup and coalescence behavior, respectively. A 1/4th water model of the slab continuous-casting mold was applied to investigate the distribution and size of bubbles by injecting air through a circumferential inlet chamber which was made of the specially-coated samples of mullite porous brick, which is used for the actual upper nozzle. Against experimental data, numerical results showed good agreement for the gas volume fraction and local bubble Sauter mean diameter. The bubble Sauter mean diameter in the upper recirculation zone decreases with increasing water flow rate and increases with increasing gas flow rate. The distribution of bubble Sauter mean diameter along the width direction of the upper mold increases first, and then gradually decreases from the SEN to the narrow wall. Close agreements between the predictions and measurements demonstrate the capability of the MUSIG model in modeling bubbly flow inside the continuous-casting mold.

  7. Population Balance Modeling of Polydispersed Bubbly Flow in Continuous-Casting Using Multiple-Size-Group Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zhongqiu; Li, Linmin; Qi, Fengsheng; Li, Baokuan; Jiang, Maofa; Tsukihashi, Fumitaka

    2014-09-01

    A population balance model based on the multiple-size-group (MUSIG) approach has been developed to investigate the polydispersed bubbly flow inside the slab continuous-casting mold and bubble behavior including volume fraction, breakup, coalescence, and size distribution. The Eulerian-Eulerian approach is used to describe the equations of motion of the two-phase flow. All the non-drag forces (lift force, virtual mass force, wall lubrication force, and turbulent dispersion force) and drag force are incorporated in this model. Sato and Sekiguchi model is used to account for the bubble-induced turbulence. Luo and Svendsen model and Prince and Blanch model are used to describe the bubbles breakup and coalescence behavior, respectively. A 1/4th water model of the slab continuous-casting mold was applied to investigate the distribution and size of bubbles by injecting air through a circumferential inlet chamber which was made of the specially-coated samples of mullite porous brick, which is used for the actual upper nozzle. Against experimental data, numerical results showed good agreement for the gas volume fraction and local bubble Sauter mean diameter. The bubble Sauter mean diameter in the upper recirculation zone decreases with increasing water flow rate and increases with increasing gas flow rate. The distribution of bubble Sauter mean diameter along the width direction of the upper mold increases first, and then gradually decreases from the SEN to the narrow wall. Close agreements between the predictions and measurements demonstrate the capability of the MUSIG model in modeling bubbly flow inside the continuous-casting mold.

  8. Quantitative Genetics of Body Size and Timing of Maturation in Two Nine-Spined Stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) Populations

    PubMed Central

    Shimada, Yukinori; Shikano, Takahito; Kuparinen, Anna; Gonda, Abigél; Leinonen, Tuomas; Merilä, Juha

    2011-01-01

    Due to its influence on body size, timing of maturation is an important life-history trait in ectotherms with indeterminate growth. Comparison of patterns of growth and maturation within and between two populations (giant vs. normal sized) of nine-spined sticklebacks (Pungitius pungitius) in a breeding experiment revealed that the difference in mean adult body size between the populations is caused by differences in timing of maturation, and not by differential growth rates. The fish in small-sized population matured earlier than those from large-sized population, and maturation was accompanied by a reduction in growth rate in the small-sized population. Males matured earlier and at smaller size than females, and the fish that were immature at the end of the experiment were larger than those that had already matured. Throughout the experimental period, body size in both populations was heritable (h2 = 0.10–0.64), as was the timing of maturation in the small-sized population (h2 = 0.13–0.16). There was a significant positive genetic correlation between body size and timing of maturation at 140 DAH, but not earlier (at 80 or 110 DAH). Comparison of observed body size divergence between the populations revealed that QST exceeded FST at older ages, indicating adaptive basis for the observed divergence. Hence, the results suggest that the body size differences within and between populations reflect heritable genetic differences in the timing of maturation, and that the observed body size divergence is adaptive. PMID:22194929

  9. Estimating population size for Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.) with spatial capture-recapture models based on genotypes from one field sample

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mollet, Pierre; Kery, Marc; Gardner, Beth; Pasinelli, Gilberto; Royle, Andy

    2015-01-01

    We conducted a survey of an endangered and cryptic forest grouse, the capercaillie Tetrao urogallus, based on droppings collected on two sampling occasions in eight forest fragments in central Switzerland in early spring 2009. We used genetic analyses to sex and individually identify birds. We estimated sex-dependent detection probabilities and population size using a modern spatial capture-recapture (SCR) model for the data from pooled surveys. A total of 127 capercaillie genotypes were identified (77 males, 46 females, and 4 of unknown sex). The SCR model yielded atotal population size estimate (posterior mean) of 137.3 capercaillies (posterior sd 4.2, 95% CRI 130–147). The observed sex ratio was skewed towards males (0.63). The posterior mean of the sex ratio under the SCR model was 0.58 (posterior sd 0.02, 95% CRI 0.54–0.61), suggesting a male-biased sex ratio in our study area. A subsampling simulation study indicated that a reduced sampling effort representing 75% of the actual detections would still yield practically acceptable estimates of total size and sex ratio in our population. Hence, field work and financial effort could be reduced without compromising accuracy when the SCR model is used to estimate key population parameters of cryptic species.

  10. Estimating Population Size for Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.) with Spatial Capture-Recapture Models Based on Genotypes from One Field Sample

    PubMed Central

    Mollet, Pierre; Kéry, Marc; Gardner, Beth; Pasinelli, Gilberto; Royle, J. Andrew

    2015-01-01

    We conducted a survey of an endangered and cryptic forest grouse, the capercaillie Tetrao urogallus, based on droppings collected on two sampling occasions in eight forest fragments in central Switzerland in early spring 2009. We used genetic analyses to sex and individually identify birds. We estimated sex-dependent detection probabilities and population size using a modern spatial capture-recapture (SCR) model for the data from pooled surveys. A total of 127 capercaillie genotypes were identified (77 males, 46 females, and 4 of unknown sex). The SCR model yielded atotal population size estimate (posterior mean) of 137.3 capercaillies (posterior sd 4.2, 95% CRI 130–147). The observed sex ratio was skewed towards males (0.63). The posterior mean of the sex ratio under the SCR model was 0.58 (posterior sd 0.02, 95% CRI 0.54–0.61), suggesting a male-biased sex ratio in our study area. A subsampling simulation study indicated that a reduced sampling effort representing 75% of the actual detections would still yield practically acceptable estimates of total size and sex ratio in our population. Hence, field work and financial effort could be reduced without compromising accuracy when the SCR model is used to estimate key population parameters of cryptic species. PMID:26087321

  11. Temporal sampling helps unravel the genetic structure of naturally occurring populations of a phytoparasitic nematode. 1. Insights from the estimation of effective population sizes.

    PubMed

    Jan, Pierre-Loup; Gracianne, Cécile; Fournet, Sylvain; Olivier, Eric; Arnaud, Jean-François; Porte, Catherine; Bardou-Valette, Sylvie; Denis, Marie-Christine; Petit, Eric J

    2016-03-01

    The sustainability of modern agriculture relies on strategies that can control the ability of pathogens to overcome chemicals or genetic resistances through natural selection. This evolutionary potential, which depends partly on effective population size (N e ), is greatly influenced by human activities. In this context, wild pathogen populations can provide valuable information for assessing the long-term risk associated with crop pests. In this study, we estimated the effective population size of the beet cyst nematode, Heterodera schachtii, by sampling 34 populations infecting the sea beet Beta vulgaris spp. maritima twice within a one-year period. Only 20 populations produced enough generations to analyze the variation in allele frequencies, with the remaining populations showing a high mortality rate of the host plant after only 1 year. The 20 analyzed populations showed surprisingly low effective population sizes, with most having N e close to 85 individuals. We attribute these low values to the variation in population size through time, systematic inbreeding, and unbalanced sex-ratios. Our results suggest that H. schachtii has low evolutionary potential in natural environments. Pest control strategies in which populations on crops mimic wild populations may help prevent parasite adaptation to host resistance. PMID:26989440

  12. Effect of distance-related heterogeneity on population size estimates from point counts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Efford, M.G.; Dawson, D.K.

    2009-01-01

    Point counts are used widely to index bird populations. Variation in the proportion of birds counted is a known source of error, and for robust inference it has been advocated that counts be converted to estimates of absolute population size. We used simulation to assess nine methods for the conduct and analysis of point counts when the data included distance-related heterogeneity of individual detection probability. Distance from the observer is a ubiquitous source of heterogeneity, because nearby birds are more easily detected than distant ones. Several recent methods (dependent double-observer, time of first detection, time of detection, independent multiple-observer, and repeated counts) do not account for distance-related heterogeneity, at least in their simpler forms. We assessed bias in estimates of population size by simulating counts with fixed radius w over four time intervals (occasions). Detection probability per occasion was modeled as a half-normal function of distance with scale parameter sigma and intercept g(0) = 1.0. Bias varied with sigma/w; values of sigma inferred from published studies were often 50% for a 100-m fixed-radius count. More critically, the bias of adjusted counts sometimes varied more than that of unadjusted counts, and inference from adjusted counts would be less robust. The problem was not solved by using mixture models or including distance as a covariate. Conventional distance sampling performed well in simulations, but its assumptions are difficult to meet in the field. We conclude that no existing method allows effective estimation of population size from point counts.

  13. Estimating chimpanzee population size with nest counts: validating methods in Taï National Park.

    PubMed

    Kouakou, Célestin Yao; Boesch, Christophe; Kuehl, Hjalmar

    2009-06-01

    Successful conservation and management of wild animals require reliable estimates of their population size. Ape surveys almost always rely on counts of sleeping nests, as the animals occur at low densities and visibility is low in tropical forests. The reliability of standing-crop nest counts and marked-nest counts, the most widely used methods, has not been tested on populations of known size. Therefore, the answer to the question of which method is more appropriate for surveying chimpanzee population remains problematic and comparisons among sites are difficult. This study aimed to test the validity of these two methods by comparing their estimates to the known population size of three habituated chimpanzee communities in Taï National Park [Boesch et al., Am J Phys Anthropol 130:103-115, 2006; Boesch et al., Am J Primatol 70:519-532, 2008]. In addition to transect surveys, we made observations on nest production rate and nest lifetime. Taï chimpanzees built 1.143 nests per day. The mean nest lifetime of 141 fresh nests was 91.22 days. Estimate precision for the two methods did not differ considerably (difference of coefficient of variation <5%). The estimate of mean nest decay time was more precise (CV=6.46%) when we used covariates (tree species, rainfall, nest height and age) to model nest decay rate, than when we took a simple mean of nest decay times (CV=9.17%). The two survey methods produced point estimates of chimpanzee abundance that were similar and reliable: i.e. for both methods the true chimpanzee abundance was included within the 95% estimate confidence interval. We recommend further research on covariate modeling of nest decay times as one way to improve the precision and to reduce the costs of conducting nest surveys. PMID:19235865

  14. From intracellular signaling to population oscillations: bridging size- and time-scales in collective behavior.

    PubMed

    Sgro, Allyson E; Schwab, David J; Noorbakhsh, Javad; Mestler, Troy; Mehta, Pankaj; Gregor, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Collective behavior in cellular populations is coordinated by biochemical signaling networks within individual cells. Connecting the dynamics of these intracellular networks to the population phenomena they control poses a considerable challenge because of network complexity and our limited knowledge of kinetic parameters. However, from physical systems, we know that behavioral changes in the individual constituents of a collectively behaving system occur in a limited number of well-defined classes, and these can be described using simple models. Here, we apply such an approach to the emergence of collective oscillations in cellular populations of the social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum. Through direct tests of our model with quantitative in vivo measurements of single-cell and population signaling dynamics, we show how a simple model can effectively describe a complex molecular signaling network at multiple size and temporal scales. The model predicts novel noise-driven single-cell and population-level signaling phenomena that we then experimentally observe. Our results suggest that like physical systems, collective behavior in biology may be universal and described using simple mathematical models. PMID:25617347

  15. The cultural evolution of human communication systems in different sized populations: usability trumps learnability.

    PubMed

    Fay, Nicolas; Ellison, T Mark

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the intergenerational transfer of human communication systems. It tests if human communication systems evolve to be easy to learn or easy to use (or both), and how population size affects learnability and usability. Using an experimental-semiotic task, we find that human communication systems evolve to be easier to use (production efficiency and reproduction fidelity), but harder to learn (identification accuracy) for a second generation of naïve participants. Thus, usability trumps learnability. In addition, the communication systems that evolve in larger populations exhibit distinct advantages over those that evolve in smaller populations: the learnability loss (from the Initial signs) is more muted and the usability benefits are more pronounced. The usability benefits for human communication systems that evolve in a small and large population is explained through guided variation reducing sign complexity. The enhanced performance of the communication systems that evolve in larger populations is explained by the operation of a content bias acting on the larger pool of competing signs. The content bias selects for information-efficient iconic signs that aid learnability and enhance usability. PMID:23967243

  16. Using Wolbachia Releases to Estimate Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Population Size and Survival

    PubMed Central

    Garcia, Gabriela de Azambuja; dos Santos, Lilha Maria Barbosa; Villela, Daniel Antunes Maciel; Maciel-de-Freitas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Mosquitoes carrying the endosymbiont bacterium Wolbachia have been deployed in field trials as a biological control intervention due to Wolbachia effects on reducing transmission of arboviruses. We performed mark, release and recapture (MRR) experiments using Wolbachia as an internal marker with daily collections with BG-Traps during the first two weeks of releases in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The MRR design allowed us to investigate two critical parameters that determine whether Wolbachia would successful invade a field population: the probability of daily survival (PDS) of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti females, and the wild population density during releases. Released females had a PDS of 0.82 and 0.89 in the first and second weeks, respectively, immediately after releases, which is well within the range of previous estimates of survivorship of wild mosquitoes in Rio de Janeiro. Abundance estimation of wild population varied up to 10-fold higher depending on the estimation method used (634–3565 females on the average-difference model to 6365–16188 females according to Lincoln-Petersen). Wolbachia-released mosquitoes were lower than the density estimation of their wild counterparts, irrespectively of the model used. Individually screening mosquitoes for the presence of Wolbachia reduced uncertainty on abundance estimations due to fluctuation in capturing per week. A successful invasion into local population requires Ae. aegypti fitness is unaffected by Wolbachia presence, but also reliable estimates on the population size of wild mosquitoes. PMID:27479050

  17. From intracellular signaling to population oscillations: bridging size- and time-scales in collective behavior

    PubMed Central

    Sgro, Allyson E; Schwab, David J; Noorbakhsh, Javad; Mestler, Troy; Mehta, Pankaj; Gregor, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Collective behavior in cellular populations is coordinated by biochemical signaling networks within individual cells. Connecting the dynamics of these intracellular networks to the population phenomena they control poses a considerable challenge because of network complexity and our limited knowledge of kinetic parameters. However, from physical systems, we know that behavioral changes in the individual constituents of a collectively behaving system occur in a limited number of well-defined classes, and these can be described using simple models. Here, we apply such an approach to the emergence of collective oscillations in cellular populations of the social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum. Through direct tests of our model with quantitative in vivo measurements of single-cell and population signaling dynamics, we show how a simple model can effectively describe a complex molecular signaling network at multiple size and temporal scales. The model predicts novel noise-driven single-cell and population-level signaling phenomena that we then experimentally observe. Our results suggest that like physical systems, collective behavior in biology may be universal and described using simple mathematical models. PMID:25617347

  18. Preferred habitat and effective population size drive landscape genetic patterns in an endangered species.

    PubMed

    Weckworth, Byron V; Musiani, Marco; Decesare, Nicholas J; McDevitt, Allan D; Hebblewhite, Mark; Mariani, Stefano

    2013-10-22

    Landscape genetics provides a framework for pinpointing environmental features that determine the important exchange of migrants among populations. These studies usually test the significance of environmental variables on gene flow, yet ignore one fundamental driver of genetic variation in small populations, effective population size, N(e). W(e) combined both approaches in evaluating genetic connectivity of a threatened ungulate, woodland caribou. We used least-cost paths to calculate matrices of resistance distance for landscape variables (preferred habitat, anthropogenic features and predation risk) and population-pairwise harmonic means of N(e), and correlated them with genetic distances, FST and D(c). Results showed that spatial configuration of preferred habitat and Ne were the two best predictors of genetic relationships. Additionally, controlling for the effect of Ne increased the strength of correlations of environmental variables with genetic distance, highlighting the significant underlying effect of Ne in modulating genetic drift and perceived spatial connectivity. We therefore have provided empirical support to emphasize preventing increased habitat loss and promoting population growth to ensure metapopulation viability. PMID:24004939

  19. Using Wolbachia Releases to Estimate Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) Population Size and Survival.

    PubMed

    Garcia, Gabriela de Azambuja; Dos Santos, Lilha Maria Barbosa; Villela, Daniel Antunes Maciel; Maciel-de-Freitas, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    Mosquitoes carrying the endosymbiont bacterium Wolbachia have been deployed in field trials as a biological control intervention due to Wolbachia effects on reducing transmission of arboviruses. We performed mark, release and recapture (MRR) experiments using Wolbachia as an internal marker with daily collections with BG-Traps during the first two weeks of releases in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The MRR design allowed us to investigate two critical parameters that determine whether Wolbachia would successful invade a field population: the probability of daily survival (PDS) of Wolbachia-infected Aedes aegypti females, and the wild population density during releases. Released females had a PDS of 0.82 and 0.89 in the first and second weeks, respectively, immediately after releases, which is well within the range of previous estimates of survivorship of wild mosquitoes in Rio de Janeiro. Abundance estimation of wild population varied up to 10-fold higher depending on the estimation method used (634-3565 females on the average-difference model to 6365-16188 females according to Lincoln-Petersen). Wolbachia-released mosquitoes were lower than the density estimation of their wild counterparts, irrespectively of the model used. Individually screening mosquitoes for the presence of Wolbachia reduced uncertainty on abundance estimations due to fluctuation in capturing per week. A successful invasion into local population requires Ae. aegypti fitness is unaffected by Wolbachia presence, but also reliable estimates on the population size of wild mosquitoes. PMID:27479050

  20. Albedo, Size and Taxonomy of the Small Body Populations Outside the Main Belt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grav, Tommy; Mainzer, Amy; Bauer, James; Masiero, Joseph R.; Cutri, Roc; Nugent, Carrie; Sonnett, Sarah; Kramer, Emily A.

    2015-11-01

    Using the data from the WISE/NEOWISE mission we have derived albedo and size distributions of ~1200 Cybeles, ~1000 Hildas, ~1700 Jovian Trojans and a dozen irregular satellites of Jupiter and Saturn. These data increases by an order of magnitude our knowledge of the makeup of the small body populations between the Main Belt and Saturn. We find that all these populations are dominated by low albedo objects, with only the Cybeles (with less than 10%) having any significant fraction of possible interloper objects with albedo higher than 15%. Using the near-infrared albedos (in the 3.4 and 4.6μm bands, denoted W1 and W2 respectively) we were able to derive the taxonomic classifications of the largest objects in each population, showing that they are dominated by surfaces that are similar to C-, P- and D-type asteroids. The dominance of these dark, primitive surfaces indicate two possible formation scenarios. These small body populations may have been formed in situ beyond the snow line, potentially serving as bodies that can provide significant insight into the composition of the early Solar Nebula in the region of the current Giant Planets. Alternatively, they may be captured bodies that were perturbed from the region outside the Giant Planets as the planets migrated during the early stages of Solar System formation. This allows for insight into the composition of the Trans-Neptunian population by study of populations that are significantly closer, brighter and more accessible. The low percentages of potentially higher albedo, stony objects common in the Main Asteroid Belt indicates that only a few of these objects have embedded themselves into these populations, potentially imposing significant constraints on the migration of Jupiter inside its current orbit.

  1. Effective population size dynamics and the demographic collapse of Bornean orang-utans.

    PubMed

    Sharma, Reeta; Arora, Natasha; Goossens, Benoit; Nater, Alexander; Morf, Nadja; Salmona, Jordi; Bruford, Michael W; Van Schaik, Carel P; Krützen, Michael; Chikhi, Lounès

    2012-01-01

    Bornean orang-utans experienced a major demographic decline and local extirpations during the Pleistocene and Holocene due to climate change, the arrival of modern humans, of farmers and recent commercially-driven habitat loss and fragmentation. The recent loss of habitat and its dramatic fragmentation has affected the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation among the remaining populations and increased the extinction risk of the most isolated ones. However, the contribution of recent demographic events to such genetic patterns is still not fully clear. Indeed, it can be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric demographic events. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and population size dynamics of orang-utans from different sites. Altogether 126 individuals were analyzed and a full-likelihood Bayesian approach was applied. All sites exhibited clear signals of population decline. Population structure is known to generate spurious bottleneck signals and we found that it does indeed contribute to the signals observed. However, population structure alone does not easily explain the observed patterns. The dating of the population decline varied across sites but was always within the 200-2000 years period. This suggests that in some sites at least, orang-utan populations were affected by demographic events that started before the recent anthropogenic effects that occurred in Borneo. These results do not mean that the recent forest exploitation did not leave its genetic mark on orang-utans but suggests that the genetic pool of orang-utans is also impacted by more ancient events. While we cannot identify the main cause for this decline, our results suggests that the decline may be related to the arrival of the first farmers or climatic events, and that more theoretical work is needed to understand how multiple demographic events impact the genome of species and how we can assess

  2. Effective Population Size Dynamics and the Demographic Collapse of Bornean Orang-Utans

    PubMed Central

    Goossens, Benoit; Nater, Alexander; Morf, Nadja; Salmona, Jordi; Bruford, Michael W.; Van Schaik, Carel P.; Krützen, Michael; Chikhi, Lounès

    2012-01-01

    Bornean orang-utans experienced a major demographic decline and local extirpations during the Pleistocene and Holocene due to climate change, the arrival of modern humans, of farmers and recent commercially-driven habitat loss and fragmentation. The recent loss of habitat and its dramatic fragmentation has affected the patterns of genetic variability and differentiation among the remaining populations and increased the extinction risk of the most isolated ones. However, the contribution of recent demographic events to such genetic patterns is still not fully clear. Indeed, it can be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric demographic events. Here, we investigated the genetic structure and population size dynamics of orang-utans from different sites. Altogether 126 individuals were analyzed and a full-likelihood Bayesian approach was applied. All sites exhibited clear signals of population decline. Population structure is known to generate spurious bottleneck signals and we found that it does indeed contribute to the signals observed. However, population structure alone does not easily explain the observed patterns. The dating of the population decline varied across sites but was always within the 200–2000 years period. This suggests that in some sites at least, orang-utan populations were affected by demographic events that started before the recent anthropogenic effects that occurred in Borneo. These results do not mean that the recent forest exploitation did not leave its genetic mark on orang-utans but suggests that the genetic pool of orang-utans is also impacted by more ancient events. While we cannot identify the main cause for this decline, our results suggests that the decline may be related to the arrival of the first farmers or climatic events, and that more theoretical work is needed to understand how multiple demographic events impact the genome of species and how we can assess

  3. Genetic factors associated with population size may increase extinction risks and decrease colonization potential in a keystone tropical pine

    PubMed Central

    del Castillo, Rafael F; Trujillo-Argueta, Sonia; Sánchez-Vargas, Nahúm; Newton, Adrian C

    2011-01-01

    Pioneer species are essential for forest regeneration and ecosystem resilience. Pinus chiapensis is an endangered pioneer key species for tropical montane cloud forest regeneration in Mesoamerica. Human activities have severely reduced some P. chiapensis populations, which exhibited a small or null colonization potential suggesting the involvement of genetic factors associated with small populations. We explored the relationships between (i) population genetic diversity (allozymes) and population size, including sampling size effects, (ii) fitness estimates associated with colonization potential (seed viability and seedling performance) in a common environment and population size, and (iii) fitness estimates and observed heterozygosity in populations with sizes spanning five orders of magnitude. All the estimates of genetic diversity and fitness increased significantly with population size. Low fitness was detected in progenies of small populations of disturbed and undisturbed habitats. Progenies with the lowest observed heterozygosity displayed the lowest fitness estimates, which, in turn, increased with heterozygosity, but seed viability peaked at intermediate heterozygosity values suggesting inbreeding and outbreeding depression. Inbreeding depression appears to be the most immediate genetic factor in population decline. Conservation efforts should try to maintain large and genetically diverse populations, enhance gene flow by restoring connectivity between adjacent populations, and avoid genetically distant individuals. PMID:25568006

  4. Population Size Estimates for Men who Have Sex with Men and Persons who Inject Drugs.

    PubMed

    Oster, Alexandra M; Sternberg, Maya; Lansky, Amy; Broz, Dita; Wejnert, Cyprian; Paz-Bailey, Gabriela

    2015-08-01

    Understanding geographic variation in the numbers of men who have sex with men (MSM) and persons who inject drugs (PWID) is critical to targeting and scaling up HIV prevention programs, but population size estimates are not available at generalizable sub-national levels. We analyzed 1999-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data on persons aged 18-59 years. We estimated weighted prevalence of recent (past 12 month) male-male sex and injection drug use by urbanicity (the degree to which a geographic area is urban) and US census region and calculated population sizes. Large metro areas (population ≥1,000,000) had higher prevalence of male-male sex (central areas, 4.4% of men; fringe areas, 2.5%) compared with medium/small metro areas (1.4%) and nonmetro areas (1.1%). Injection drug use did not vary by urbanicity and neither varied by census region. Three-quarters of MSM, but only half of PWID, resided in large metro areas. Two-thirds of MSM and two-thirds of PWID resided in the South and West. Efforts to reach MSM would benefit from being focused in large metro areas, while efforts to reach PWID should be delivered more broadly. These data allow for more effective allocation of funds for prevention programs. PMID:26115985

  5. Population size, survival, and movements of white-cheeked pintails in Eastern Puerto Rico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Collazo, J.A.; Bonilla-Martinez, G.

    2001-01-01

    We estimated numbers and survival of White-cheeked Pintails (Anas bahamensis) in eastern Puerto Rico during 1996-1999. We also quantified their movements between Culebra Island and the Humacao Wildlife Refuge, Puerto Rico. Mark-resight population size estimates averaged 1020 pintails during nine, 3-month sampling periods from January 1997 to June 1999. On average, minimum regional counts were 38 % lower than mark-resight estimates (mean = 631). Adult survival was 0.51 ?? 0.09 (SE). This estimate is similar for other anatids of similar size but broader geographic distribution. The probability of pintails surviving and staying in Humacao was hiher (67 %) than for counterparts on Culebra (31 %). The probability of surviving and moving from Culebra to Humacao (41 %) was higher than from Humacao to Culebra (20 %). These findings, and available information on reproduction, indicate that the Humacao Wildlife Refuge refuge has an important role in the regional demography of pintails. Our findings on population numbers and regional survival are encouraging, given concerns about the species' status due to habitat loss and hunting. However, our outlook for the species is tempered by the remaining gaps in the population dynamics of pintails; for examples, survival estimates of broods and fledglings (age 0-1) are needed for a comprehensive status assessment. Until additional data are obtianed, White-cheeked Pintails should continue to be protectd from hunting in Puerto Rico.

  6. Recruitment and post-recruit immigration affect the local population size of coral reef fishes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lewis, A. R.

    1997-07-01

    This study quantifies the contributions of larval recruitment and post-recruit (juvenile and adult) immigration to net increases in population size for 150 species of fishes found on ten isolated coral patches or `bommies' (108-267 m2) within a typical reef of the Great Barrier Reef system. At least one third of the total number of recruits and immigrants to all bommies were post-recruit fishes, and movement between bommies in 136 species was detected at some time during the 22 month sampling period. The relative numbers of recruits and post-recruit immigrants per species varied widely within the assemblage, and between the replicate bommies. Populations of 95 species received both types of immigrants, 41 species had only post-recruit immigrants, and 14 species received only larval recruitment. In most species, recruitment occurred over the austral summer between October and February, while post-recruit movements occurred in both summer and winter. Rates of post-recruit immigration varied temporally within bommies, and pulses of post-recruits were less temporally concordant between bommies than pulses of recruits. This study is further evidence that post-settlement processes can have a significant effect on the local population size of reef fishes.

  7. Estimating Effective Population Size from Temporally Spaced Samples with a Novel, Efficient Maximum-Likelihood Algorithm

    PubMed Central

    Hui, Tin-Yu J.; Burt, Austin

    2015-01-01

    The effective population size Ne is a key parameter in population genetics and evolutionary biology, as it quantifies the expected distribution of changes in allele frequency due to genetic drift. Several methods of estimating Ne have been described, the most direct of which uses allele frequencies measured at two or more time points. A new likelihood-based estimator NB^ for contemporary effective population size using temporal data is developed in this article. The existing likelihood methods are computationally intensive and unable to handle the case when the underlying Ne is large. This article tries to work around this problem by using a hidden Markov algorithm and applying continuous approximations to allele frequencies and transition probabilities. Extensive simulations are run to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator NB^, and the results show that it is more accurate and has lower variance than previous methods. The new estimator also reduces the computational time by at least 1000-fold and relaxes the upper bound of Ne to several million, hence allowing the estimation of larger Ne. Finally, we demonstrate how this algorithm can cope with nonconstant Ne scenarios and be used as a likelihood-ratio test to test for the equality of Ne throughout the sampling horizon. An R package “NB” is now available for download to implement the method described in this article. PMID:25747459

  8. [Characteristics of pedigree cat breeding in the Netherlands: breeds, population increase and litter size].

    PubMed

    Gerrits, P O; Huisman, T; Knol, B W

    1999-03-01

    A survey of the Dutch Cat Fancy was carried out to determine reproductive, patterns of pedigree cats. The data of the present study were obtained by questioning the pedigree registers of the cat clubs participating in the foundation 'Overleg Platform van de Nederlandse Cat Fancy'. The Dutch Cat Fancy registers 34 different cat breeds. From 1992 up to 1996 a total of 25.985 litters were registered. Over this period the number of litters increased from 4989 to 5313. Litters from Longhair and Exotic Shorthair cats comprised the biggest group and accounted for 55% of the total number of litters. However, over this period, the number of Longhair and Exotic Shorthair litters decreased by 9%. Litters from British Shorthair, Birman, Maine Coon and Norwegian Forrest Cat increased in number as did litters from small breeds such as Ragdoll, Bengal and Sphynx. Litters from Abyssinian, Siamese, Oriental Shorthair cats remained relatively the same. The average litter size of the total cat population, based on pedigree certificates, was calculated at 3.3 kittens per litter. For different breeds litter size varied from 2.7 (Longhair and Exotic Shorthair) to 4.3 (Burmese and Maine Coon). Taking into account an average age of 14 years, the total Dutch pedigree cat population was estimated at 240,000 viz. about 10% of the total cat population. PMID:10084198

  9. A Generalized Approach for Estimating Effective Population Size from Temporal Changes in Allele Frequency

    PubMed Central

    Waples, R. S.

    1989-01-01

    The temporal method for estimating effective population size (N(e)) from the standardized variance in allele frequency change (F) is presented in a generalized form. Whereas previous treatments of this method have adopted rather limiting assumptions, the present analysis shows that the temporal method is generally applicable to a wide variety of organisms. Use of a revised model of gene sampling permits a more generalized interpretation of N(e) than that used by some other authors studying this method. It is shown that two sampling plans (individuals for genetic analysis taken before or after reproduction) whose differences have been stressed by previous authors can be treated in a uniform way. Computer simulations using a wide variety of initial conditions show that different formulas for computing F have much less effect on N(e) than do sample size (S), number of generations between samples (t), or the number of loci studied (L). Simulation results also indicate that (1) bias of F is small unless alleles with very low frequency are used; (2) precision is typically increased by about the same amount with a doubling of S, t, or L; (3) confidence intervals for N(e) computed using a χ(2) approximation are accurate and unbiased under most conditions; (4) the temporal method is best suited for use with organisms having high juvenile mortality and, perhaps, a limited effective population size. PMID:2731727

  10. Effect of reaction-step-size noise on the switching dynamics of stochastic populations.

    PubMed

    Be'er, Shay; Heller-Algazi, Metar; Assaf, Michael

    2016-05-01

    In genetic circuits, when the messenger RNA lifetime is short compared to the cell cycle, proteins are produced in geometrically distributed bursts, which greatly affects the cellular switching dynamics between different metastable phenotypic states. Motivated by this scenario, we study a general problem of switching or escape in stochastic populations, where influx of particles occurs in groups or bursts, sampled from an arbitrary distribution. The fact that the step size of the influx reaction is a priori unknown and, in general, may fluctuate in time with a given correlation time and statistics, introduces an additional nondemographic reaction-step-size noise into the system. Employing the probability-generating function technique in conjunction with Hamiltonian formulation, we are able to map the problem in the leading order onto solving a stationary Hamilton-Jacobi equation. We show that compared to the "usual case" of single-step influx, bursty influx exponentially decreases the population's mean escape time from its long-lived metastable state. In particular, close to bifurcation we find a simple analytical expression for the mean escape time which solely depends on the mean and variance of the burst-size distribution. Our results are demonstrated on several realistic distributions and compare well with numerical Monte Carlo simulations. PMID:27300840

  11. Effect of reaction-step-size noise on the switching dynamics of stochastic populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Be'er, Shay; Heller-Algazi, Metar; Assaf, Michael

    2016-05-01

    In genetic circuits, when the messenger RNA lifetime is short compared to the cell cycle, proteins are produced in geometrically distributed bursts, which greatly affects the cellular switching dynamics between different metastable phenotypic states. Motivated by this scenario, we study a general problem of switching or escape in stochastic populations, where influx of particles occurs in groups or bursts, sampled from an arbitrary distribution. The fact that the step size of the influx reaction is a priori unknown and, in general, may fluctuate in time with a given correlation time and statistics, introduces an additional nondemographic reaction-step-size noise into the system. Employing the probability-generating function technique in conjunction with Hamiltonian formulation, we are able to map the problem in the leading order onto solving a stationary Hamilton-Jacobi equation. We show that compared to the "usual case" of single-step influx, bursty influx exponentially decreases the population's mean escape time from its long-lived metastable state. In particular, close to bifurcation we find a simple analytical expression for the mean escape time which solely depends on the mean and variance of the burst-size distribution. Our results are demonstrated on several realistic distributions and compare well with numerical Monte Carlo simulations.

  12. The Effect of Small-Size Habitat Disturbances on Population Density and Time to Extinction of the Prairie Vole

    SciTech Connect

    Kostova, T; Carlsen, T

    2004-12-13

    We present a study, based on simulations with SERDYCA, a spatially-explicit individual-based model of rodent dynamics, on the relation between population persistence and the presence of numerous isolated disturbances in the habitat. We are specifically interested in the effect of disturbances that do not fragment the environment on population persistence. Our results suggest that the presence of disturbances in the absence of fragmentation can actually increase the average time to extinction of the modeled population. The presence of disturbances decreases population density but can increase the chance for mating in monogamous species and consequently, the ratio of juveniles in the population. It thus provides a better chance for the population to restore itself after a severe period with critically low population density. We call this the ''disturbance-forced localization effect''.

  13. Scaling relationship for NO2 pollution and urban population size: a satellite perspective.

    PubMed

    Lamsal, L N; Martin, R V; Parrish, D D; Krotkov, N A

    2013-07-16

    Concern is growing about the effects of urbanization on air pollution and health. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) released primarily from combustion processes, such as traffic, is a short-lived atmospheric pollutant that serves as an air-quality indicator and is itself a health concern. We derive a global distribution of ground-level NO2 concentrations from tropospheric NO2 columns retrieved from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Local scaling factors from a three-dimensional chemistry-transport model (GEOS-Chem) are used to relate the OMI NO2 columns to ground-level concentrations. The OMI-derived surface NO2 data are significantly correlated (r = 0.69) with in situ surface measurements. We examine how the OMI-derived ground-level NO2 concentrations, OMI NO2 columns, and bottom-up NOx emission inventories relate to urban population. Emission hot spots, such as power plants, are excluded to focus on urban relationships. The correlation of surface NO2 with population is significant for the three countries and one continent examined here: United States (r = 0.71), Europe (r = 0.67), China (r = 0.69), and India (r = 0.59). Urban NO2 pollution, like other urban properties, is a power law scaling function of the population size: NO2 concentration increases proportional to population raised to an exponent. The value of the exponent varies by region from 0.36 for India to 0.66 for China, reflecting regional differences in industrial development and per capita emissions. It has been generally established that energy efficiency increases and, therefore, per capita NOx emissions decrease with urban population; here, we show how outdoor ambient NO2 concentrations depend upon urban population in different global regions. PMID:23763377

  14. The relationship between settlement population size and sustainable development measured by two sustainability metrics

    SciTech Connect

    O'Regan, Bernadette Morrissey, John; Foley, Walter; Moles, Richard

    2009-04-15

    This paper reports on a study of the relative sustainability of 79 Irish villages, towns and a small city (collectively called 'settlements') classified by population size. Quantitative data on more than 300 economic, social and environmental attributes of each settlement were assembled into a database. Two aggregated metrics were selected to model the relative sustainability of settlements: Ecological Footprint (EF) and Sustainable Development Index (SDI). Subsequently these were aggregated to create a single Combined Sustainable Development Index. Creation of this database meant that metric calculations did not rely on proxies, and were therefore considered to be robust. Methods employed provided values for indicators at various stages of the aggregation process. This allowed both the first reported empirical analysis of the relationship between settlement sustainability and population size, and the elucidation of information provided at different stages of aggregation. At the highest level of aggregation, settlement sustainability increased with population size, but important differences amongst individual settlements were masked by aggregation. EF and SDI metrics ranked settlements in differing orders of relative sustainability. Aggregation of indicators to provide Ecological Footprint values was found to be especially problematic, and this metric was inadequately sensitive to distinguish amongst the relative sustainability achieved by all settlements. Many authors have argued that, for policy makers to be able to inform planning decisions using sustainability indicators, it is necessary that they adopt a toolkit of aggregated indicators. Here it is argued that to interpret correctly each aggregated metric value, policy makers also require a hierarchy of disaggregated component indicator values, each explained fully. Possible implications for urban planning are briefly reviewed.

  15. Effective Population Size, Extended Linkage Disequilibrium and Signatures of Selection in the Rare Dog Breed Lundehund

    PubMed Central

    Pfahler, Sophia; Distl, Ottmar

    2015-01-01

    The Lundehund is an old dog breed with remarkable anatomical features including polydactyly in all four limbs and extraordinary flexibility of the spine. We genotyped 28 Lundehund using the canine Illumina high density beadchip to estimate the effective population size (Ne) and inbreeding coefficients as well as to identify potential regions of positive selection. The decay of linkage disequilibrium was slow with r2 = 0.95 in 50 kb distance. The last 7-200 generations ago, Ne was at 10-13. An increase of Ne was noted in the very recent generations with a peak value of 19 for Ne at generation 4. The FROH estimated for 50-, 65- and 358-SNP windows were 0.87, 087 and 0.81, respectively. The most likely estimates for FROH after removing identical-by-state segments due to linkage disequilibria were at 0.80-0.81. The extreme loss of heterozygosity has been accumulated through continued inbreeding over 200 generations within a probably closed population with a small effective population size. The mean inbreeding coefficient based on pedigree data for the last 11 generations (FPed = 0.10) was strongly biased downwards due to the unknown coancestry of the founders in this pedigree data. The long-range haplotype test identified regions with genes involved in processes of immunity, olfaction, woundhealing and neuronal development as potential targets of selection. The genes QSOX2, BMPR1B and PRRX2 as well as MYOM1 are candidates for selection on the Lundehund characteristics small body size, increased number of digits per paw and extraordinary mobility, respectively. PMID:25860808

  16. Identification of key aerosol populations through their size and composition resolved spectral scattering and absorption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Costabile, F.; Barnaba, F.; Angelini, F.; Gobbi, G. P.

    2013-03-01

    Characterizing chemical and physical aerosol properties is important to understand their sources, effects, and feedback mechanisms in the atmosphere. This study proposes a scheme to classify aerosol populations based on their spectral optical properties (absorption and scattering). The scheme is obtained thanks to the outstanding set of information on particle size and composition these properties contain. The spectral variability of the aerosol single scattering albedo (dSSA), and the extinction, scattering and absorption Angstrom exponents (EAE, SAE and AAE, respectively) were observed on the basis of two-year measurements of aerosol optical properties (scattering and absorption coefficients at blue, green and red wavelengths) performed in the suburbs of Rome (Italy). Optical measurements of various aerosol types were coupled to measurements of particle number size distributions and relevant optical properties simulations (Mie theory). These latter allowed the investigation of the role of the particle size and composition in the bulk aerosol properties observed. The combination of simulations and measurements suggested a general "paradigm" built on dSSA, SAE and AAE to optically classify aerosols. The paradigm proved suitable to identify the presence of key aerosol populations, including soot, biomass burning, organics, dust and marine particles. The work highlights that (i) aerosol populations show distinctive combinations of SAE and dSSA times AAE, these variables being linked by a linear inverse relation varying with varying SSA; (ii) fine particles show EAE > 1.5, whilst EAE < 2 is found for both coarse particles and ultrafine soot-rich aerosols; (iii) fine and coarse particles both show SSA > 0.8, whilst ultrafine urban Aitken mode and soot particles show SSA < 0.8. The proposed paradigm agrees with aerosol observations performed during past major field campaigns, this indicating that relations concerning the paradigm have a general validity.

  17. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

    PubMed

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term. PMID:27018998

  18. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation

    PubMed Central

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T. J.

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term. PMID:27018998

  19. Energy-efficient population coding constrains network size of a neuronal array system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Lianchun; Zhang, Chi; Liu, Liwei; Yu, Yuguo

    2016-01-01

    We consider the open issue of how the energy efficiency of the neural information transmission process, in a general neuronal array, constrains the network size, and how well this network size ensures the reliable transmission of neural information in a noisy environment. By direct mathematical analysis, we have obtained general solutions proving that there exists an optimal number of neurons in the network, where the average coding energy cost (defined as energy consumption divided by mutual information) per neuron passes through a global minimum for both subthreshold and superthreshold signals. With increases in background noise intensity, the optimal neuronal number decreases for subthreshold signals and increases for suprathreshold signals. The existence of an optimal number of neurons in an array network reveals a general rule for population coding that states that the neuronal number should be large enough to ensure reliable information transmission that is robust to the noisy environment but small enough to minimize energy cost.

  20. Coherent population trapping on 87Rb atoms in small-size absorption cells with buffer gas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ermak, S. V.; Petrenko, M. V.; Semenov, V. V.

    2016-02-01

    Coherent population trapping (CPT) on 87Rb atoms in neon atmosphere has been studied in small-size glass absorption cells under conditions of pumping with narrow-band laser radiation at the D2 line of the main doublet. Parameters of the absorption signal have been measured in 3-mm-diameter cells at buffer gas (Ne) pressures varied within 200-400 Torr, cell temperatures within 65-120°C, and pumping radiation power densities within 30-400 μW/cm2. Optimum values of the buffer gas pressures, cell temperature, and pumping power are determined at which the short-term instability of the resonance line is at minimum. Orientational shifts of the CPT resonance signal in gas-filled cells and small-size cells with antirelaxation coating have been compared.

  1. Energy-efficient population coding constrains network size of a neuronal array system.

    PubMed

    Yu, Lianchun; Zhang, Chi; Liu, Liwei; Yu, Yuguo

    2016-01-01

    We consider the open issue of how the energy efficiency of the neural information transmission process, in a general neuronal array, constrains the network size, and how well this network size ensures the reliable transmission of neural information in a noisy environment. By direct mathematical analysis, we have obtained general solutions proving that there exists an optimal number of neurons in the network, where the average coding energy cost (defined as energy consumption divided by mutual information) per neuron passes through a global minimum for both subthreshold and superthreshold signals. With increases in background noise intensity, the optimal neuronal number decreases for subthreshold signals and increases for suprathreshold signals. The existence of an optimal number of neurons in an array network reveals a general rule for population coding that states that the neuronal number should be large enough to ensure reliable information transmission that is robust to the noisy environment but small enough to minimize energy cost. PMID:26781354

  2. Discriminating the effects of spatial extent and population size in cyclic competition among species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamouroux, D.; Eule, S.; Geisel, T.; Nagler, J.

    2012-08-01

    We introduce a population model for species under cyclic competition. This model allows individuals to coexist and interact on single cells while migration takes place between adjacent cells. In contrast to the model introduced by Reichenbach, Mobilia, and Frey [Reichenbach, Mobilia, and Frey, Nature (London)NATUAS0028-083610.1038/nature06095 448, 1046 (2007)], we find that the emergence of spirals results in an ambiguous behavior regarding the stability of coexistence. The typical time until extinction exhibits, however, a qualitatively opposite dependence on the newly introduced nonunit carrying capacity in the spiraling and the nonspiraling regimes. This allows us to determine a critical mobility that marks the onset of this spiraling state sharply. In contrast, we demonstrate that the conventional finite size stability analysis with respect to spatial size is of limited use for identifying the onset of the spiraling regime.

  3. Energy-efficient population coding constrains network size of a neuronal array system

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Lianchun; Zhang, Chi; Liu, Liwei; Yu, Yuguo

    2016-01-01

    We consider the open issue of how the energy efficiency of the neural information transmission process, in a general neuronal array, constrains the network size, and how well this network size ensures the reliable transmission of neural information in a noisy environment. By direct mathematical analysis, we have obtained general solutions proving that there exists an optimal number of neurons in the network, where the average coding energy cost (defined as energy consumption divided by mutual information) per neuron passes through a global minimum for both subthreshold and superthreshold signals. With increases in background noise intensity, the optimal neuronal number decreases for subthreshold signals and increases for suprathreshold signals. The existence of an optimal number of neurons in an array network reveals a general rule for population coding that states that the neuronal number should be large enough to ensure reliable information transmission that is robust to the noisy environment but small enough to minimize energy cost. PMID:26781354

  4. Adaptive Protein Evolution in Animals and the Effective Population Size Hypothesis

    PubMed Central

    Galtier, Nicolas

    2016-01-01

    The rate at which genomes adapt to environmental changes and the prevalence of adaptive processes in molecular evolution are two controversial issues in current evolutionary genetics. Previous attempts to quantify the genome-wide rate of adaptation through amino-acid substitution have revealed a surprising diversity of patterns, with some species (e.g. Drosophila) experiencing a very high adaptive rate, while other (e.g. humans) are dominated by nearly-neutral processes. It has been suggested that this discrepancy reflects between-species differences in effective population size. Published studies, however, were mainly focused on model organisms, and relied on disparate data sets and methodologies, so that an overview of the prevalence of adaptive protein evolution in nature is currently lacking. Here we extend existing estimators of the amino-acid adaptive rate by explicitly modelling the effect of favourable mutations on non-synonymous polymorphism patterns, and we apply these methods to a newly-built, homogeneous data set of 44 non-model animal species pairs. Data analysis uncovers a major contribution of adaptive evolution to the amino-acid substitution process across all major metazoan phyla—with the notable exception of humans and primates. The proportion of adaptive amino-acid substitution is found to be positively correlated to species effective population size. This relationship, however, appears to be primarily driven by a decreased rate of nearly-neutral amino-acid substitution because of more efficient purifying selection in large populations. Our results reveal that adaptive processes dominate the evolution of proteins in most animal species, but do not corroborate the hypothesis that adaptive substitutions accumulate at a faster rate in large populations. Implications regarding the factors influencing the rate of adaptive evolution and positive selection detection in humans vs. other organisms are discussed. PMID:26752180

  5. Population size and natural history of Mariana fruit bats (Chiroptera: Pteropodidae) on Sarigan, Mariana Islands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wiles, G.J.; Jonhson, N.C.

    2004-01-01

    Based on count results, we estimated the population of Mariana fruit bats (Pteropus mariannus Desmarest) on Sarigan, Mariana Islands, to number 150-200 bats in 1999, 185-235 bats in 2000, and about 300-400 bats in 2001. Our results, plus those of two previous surveys, indicate that bat abundance on the island probably remained relatively stable at about 125-235 animals during much of the period from 1983 to 2000, then increased suddenly in 2001, most likely due to immigration from a neighboring island. Sarigan's population differs from those of larger islands in the archipelago by usually having smaller roost sizes, typically 3-75 bats, and large numbers of solitary bats that at times comprise up to half of the population. Colonies and smaller aggregations were composed primarily of harems with multiple females, whereas a nearly equal sex ratio occurred among solitary animals. Colonies roosted in isolated coconut trees in open grasslands and in native forest stands of various sizes, but avoided dense coconut forest. An estimated 30-50% of harem and solitary females possessed young in July 1999. Bats were recorded feeding on just six species of plants, which partly reflects the island's impoverished flora. We speculate that fruit bat abundance on Sarigan is limited primarily by food availability rather than hunting losses, in contrast to some other islands in the Marianas. Our study supports the contention that populations of P. mariannus in the northern Marianas are usually sedentary, but that interisland movements of larger numbers of bats may occur rarely. ?? 2004 by University of Hawai'i Press All rights reserved.

  6. Population density and size of bacteria in the course of cultivation of their small forms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polyanskaya, L. M.; Gorodnichev, R. B.; Vorob'eva, E. A.; Zvyagintsev, D. G.

    2015-04-01

    The population density, size, and biomass of the soil bacteria from a mountain meadow-steppe soil of Tajikistan and a light sierozem of the Negev Desert have been analyzed using the method of "cascade" filtration. It was shown that, when cultivating small fractions of soil bacteria, the total number of bacteria increased by 1.5 times and the bacterial size became greater. The number of coarse cells with a size of 1.85 and 0.43 μm essentially increased in both soils. If the contribution of these fractions was about 10-20% in the initial soils, it increased up to 50-60% in the incubated filtrates. The cells with a size of 0.38 and 0.23 μm accounted for about 70% of the total bacteria in the initial soils, while, in the incubated filtrates, the share of 0.23 μm cells composed about 30% in the filtrate and that of 0.38 μm cells reached 45-50% in the filtrate. The average diameter of the bacteria increased from 0.4 to 0.8-0.9 μm; the biomass of bacteria in these filtrates increased by 7-8 times in comparison with the initial soils at the expense of an increasing number of large cells after cultivation.

  7. Development and Validation of the Body Size Scale for Assessing Body Weight Perception in African Populations

    PubMed Central

    Cohen, Emmanuel; Bernard, Jonathan Y.; Ponty, Amandine; Ndao, Amadou; Amougou, Norbert; Saïd-Mohamed, Rihlat; Pasquet, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    Background The social valorisation of overweight in African populations could promote high-risk eating behaviours and therefore become a risk factor of obesity. However, existing scales to assess body image are usually not accurate enough to allow comparative studies of body weight perception in different African populations. This study aimed to develop and validate the Body Size Scale (BSS) to estimate African body weight perception. Methods Anthropometric measures of 80 Cameroonians and 81 Senegalese were used to evaluate three criteria of adiposity: body mass index (BMI), overall percentage of fat, and endomorphy (fat component of the somatotype). To develop the BSS, the participants were photographed in full face and profile positions. Models were selected for their representativeness of the wide variability in adiposity with a progressive increase along the scale. Then, for the validation protocol, participants self-administered the BSS to assess self-perceived current body size (CBS), desired body size (DBS) and provide a “body self-satisfaction index.” This protocol included construct validity, test-retest reliability and convergent validity and was carried out with three independent samples of respectively 201, 103 and 1115 Cameroonians. Results The BSS comprises two sex-specific scales of photos of 9 models each, and ordered by increasing adiposity. Most participants were able to correctly order the BSS by increasing adiposity, using three different words to define body size. Test-retest reliability was consistent in estimating CBS, DBS and the “body self-satisfaction index.” The CBS was highly correlated to the objective BMI, and two different indexes assessed with the BSS were consistent with declarations obtained in interviews. Conclusion The BSS is the first scale with photos of real African models taken in both full face and profile and representing a wide and representative variability in adiposity. The validation protocol proved its

  8. Whitebark Pine, Population Density, and Home-Range Size of Grizzly Bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Bjornlie, Daniel D.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

    2014-01-01

    Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size. PMID:24520354

  9. Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater yellowstone ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Bjornlie, Daniel D; Van Manen, Frank T; Ebinger, Michael R; Haroldson, Mark A; Thompson, Daniel J; Costello, Cecily M

    2014-01-01

    Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size. PMID:24520354

  10. Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Daniel D, Bjornlie; van Manen, Frank T.; Michael R, Ebinger; Haroldson, Mark A.; Daniel J, Thompson; Cecily M, Costello

    2014-01-01

    Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

  11. Ochre star mortality during the 2014 wasting disease epizootic: role of population size structure and temperature

    PubMed Central

    Eisenlord, Morgan E.; Yoshioka, Reyn M.; Elliott, Joel; Maynard, Jeffrey; Fradkin, Steven; Turner, Margaret; Pyne, Katie; Rivlin, Natalie; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Harvell, C. Drew

    2016-01-01

    Over 20 species of asteroids were devastated by a sea star wasting disease (SSWD) epizootic, linked to a densovirus, from Mexico to Alaska in 2013 and 2014. For Pisaster ochraceus from the San Juan Islands, South Puget Sound and Washington outer coast, time-series monitoring showed rapid disease spread, high mortality rates in 2014, and continuing levels of wasting in the survivors in 2015. Peak prevalence of disease at 16 sites ranged to 100%, with an overall mean of 61%. Analysis of longitudinal data showed disease risk was correlated with both size and temperature and resulted in shifts in population size structure; adult populations fell to one quarter of pre-outbreak abundances. In laboratory experiments, time between development of disease signs and death was influenced by temperature in adults but not juveniles and adult mortality was 18% higher in the 19°C treatment compared to the lower temperature treatments. While larger ochre stars developed disease signs sooner than juveniles, diseased juveniles died more quickly than diseased adults. Unusual 2–3°C warm temperature anomalies were coincident with the summer 2014 mortalities. We suggest these warm waters could have increased the disease progression and mortality rates of SSWD in Washington State. PMID:26880844

  12. Family reintegration of children and adolescents in foster care in Brazilian municipalities with different population sizes.

    PubMed

    Iannelli, Andrea M; Assis, Simone Gonçalves; Pinto, Liana Wernersbach; Pinto, Liana Wenersbach

    2015-01-01

    The scope of this article is to present and analyze data from Brazilian foster care services for children / adolescents from the perspective of family reintegration. It also seeks to support the implementation of public policies in order to provide effective reintegration in accordance with the differing local contexts. It uses data from 1,157 municipalities that have foster care services. The methodology takes into account the data collection of 2,624 Brazilian centers and 36,929 children and adolescents in care. The growing number of children/adolescents in care is in line with the increase in population size: 8.4 per small city; 60 per large city and 602.4 per metropolis. With respect to care residence in a different municipality there are varying indices: 12.4% in metropolises and 33.6% in small cities, revealing the absence of centers close to family units in the smaller communities. Regarding the activities promoted together with families, it was seen that there are still units that do not perform any activities, which runs contrary to Brazilian law. It is clear that policies for the child/adolescent in foster care centers need to consider the capacity of the municipality in accordance with population size to implement support actions for families to assist in family reintegration. PMID:25650596

  13. Microhabitat use, population densities, and size distributions of sulfur cave-dwelling Poecilia mexicana

    PubMed Central

    Bierbach, David; Riesch, Rüdiger; Schießl, Angela; Wigh, Adriana; Arias-Rodriguez, Lenin; Indy, Jeane Rimber; Klaus, Sebastian; Zimmer, Claudia; Plath, Martin

    2014-01-01

    The Cueva del Azufre in Tabasco, Mexico, is a nutrient-rich cave and its inhabitants need to cope with high levels of dissolved hydrogen sulfide and extreme hypoxia. One of the successful colonizers of this cave is the poeciliid fish Poecilia mexicana, which has received considerable attention as a model organism to examine evolutionary adaptations to extreme environmental conditions. Nonetheless, basic ecological data on the endemic cave molly population are still missing; here we aim to provide data on population densities, size class compositions and use of different microhabitats. We found high overall densities in the cave and highest densities at the middle part of the cave with more than 200 individuals per square meter. These sites have lower H2S concentrations compared to the inner parts where most large sulfide sources are located, but they are annually exposed to a religious harvesting ceremony of local Zoque people called La Pesca. We found a marked shift in size/age compositions towards an overabundance of smaller, juvenile fish at those sites. We discuss these findings in relation to several environmental gradients within the cave (i.e., differences in toxicity and lighting conditions), but we also tentatively argue that the annual fish harvest during a religious ceremony (La Pesca) locally diminishes competition (and possibly, cannibalism by large adults), which is followed by a phase of overcompensation of fish densities. PMID:25083351

  14. Ochre star mortality during the 2014 wasting disease epizootic: role of population size structure and temperature.

    PubMed

    Eisenlord, Morgan E; Groner, Maya L; Yoshioka, Reyn M; Elliott, Joel; Maynard, Jeffrey; Fradkin, Steven; Turner, Margaret; Pyne, Katie; Rivlin, Natalie; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Harvell, C Drew

    2016-03-01

    Over 20 species of asteroids were devastated by a sea star wasting disease (SSWD) epizootic, linked to a densovirus, from Mexico to Alaska in 2013 and 2014. For Pisaster ochraceus from the San Juan Islands, South Puget Sound and Washington outer coast, time-series monitoring showed rapid disease spread, high mortality rates in 2014, and continuing levels of wasting in the survivors in 2015. Peak prevalence of disease at 16 sites ranged to 100%, with an overall mean of 61%. Analysis of longitudinal data showed disease risk was correlated with both size and temperature and resulted in shifts in population size structure; adult populations fell to one quarter of pre-outbreak abundances. In laboratory experiments, time between development of disease signs and death was influenced by temperature in adults but not juveniles and adult mortality was 18% higher in the 19 °C treatment compared to the lower temperature treatments. While larger ochre stars developed disease signs sooner than juveniles, diseased juveniles died more quickly than diseased adults. Unusual 2-3 °C warm temperature anomalies were coincident with the summer 2014 mortalities. We suggest these warm waters could have increased the disease progression and mortality rates of SSWD in Washington State. PMID:26880844

  15. Estimating contemporary effective population size on the basis of linkage disequilibrium in the face of migration.

    PubMed

    Waples, Robin S; England, Phillip R

    2011-10-01

    Effective population size (Ne) is an important genetic parameter because of its relationship to loss of genetic variation, increases in inbreeding, accumulation of mutations, and effectiveness of selection. Like most other genetic approaches that estimate contemporary Ne, the method based on linkage disequilibrium (LD) assumes a closed population and (in the most common applications) randomly recombining loci. We used analytical and numerical methods to evaluate the absolute and relative consequences of two potential violations of the closed-population assumption: (1) mixture LD caused by occurrence of more than one gene pool, which would downwardly bias Ne and (2) reductions in drift LD (and hence upward bias in Ne) caused by an increase in the number of parents responsible for local samples. The LD method is surprisingly robust to equilibrium migration. Effects of mixture LD are small for all values of migration rate (m), and effects of additional parents are also small unless m is high in genetic terms. LD estimates of Ne therefore accurately reflect local (subpopulation) Ne unless m>∼5-10%. With higher m, Ne converges on the global (metapopulation) Ne. Two general exceptions were observed. First, equilibrium migration that is rare and hence episodic can occasionally lead to substantial mixture LD, especially when sample size is small. Second, nonequilibrium, pulse migration of strongly divergent individuals can also create strong mixture LD and depress estimates of local Ne. In both cases, assignment tests, Bayesian clustering, and other methods often will allow identification of recent immigrants that strongly influence results. In simulations involving equilibrium migration, the standard LD method performed better than a method designed to jointly estimate Ne and m. The above results assume loci are not physically linked; for tightly linked loci, the LD signal from past migration events can persist for many generations, with consequences for Ne estimates

  16. Z chromosome divergence, polymorphism and relative effective population size in a genus of lekking birds.

    PubMed

    Oyler-McCance, S J; Cornman, R S; Jones, K L; Fike, J A

    2015-11-01

    Sex chromosomes contribute disproportionately to species boundaries as they diverge faster than autosomes and often have reduced diversity. Their hemizygous nature contributes to faster divergence and reduced diversity, as do some types of selection. In birds, other factors (mating system and bottlenecks) can further decrease the effective population size of Z-linked loci and accelerate divergence (Fast-Z). We assessed Z-linked divergence and effective population sizes for two polygynous sage-grouse species and compared them to estimates from birds with various mating systems. We found lower diversity and higher FST for Z-linked loci than for autosomes, as expected. The π(Z)/π(A) ratio was 0.38 in Centrocercus minimus, 0.48 in Centrocercus urophasianus and 0.59 in a diverged, parapatric population of C. urophasianus, a broad range given the mating system among these groups is presumably equivalent. The full data set had unequal males and females across groups, so we compared an equally balanced reduced set of C. minimus and individuals pooled from both C. urophasianus subgroups recovering similar estimates: 0.54 for C. urophasianus and 0.38 for C. minimus. We provide further evidence that N(eZ)/N(eA) in birds is often lower than expected under random mating or monogamy. The lower ratio in C. minimus could be a consequence of stronger selection or drift acting on Z loci during speciation, as this species differs strongly from C. urophasianus in sexually selected characters with minimal mitochondrial divergence. As C. minimus also exhibited lower genomic diversity, it is possible that a more severe demographic history may contribute to its lower ratio. PMID:26014526

  17. Z chromosome divergence, polymorphism and relative effective population size in a genus of lekking birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Cornman, Robert S.; Kenneth L. Jones; Fike, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    Sex chromosomes contribute disproportionately to species boundaries as they diverge faster than autosomes and often have reduced diversity. Their hemizygous nature contributes to faster divergence and reduced diversity, as do some types of selection. In birds, other factors (mating system and bottlenecks) can further decrease the effective population size of Z-linked loci and accelerate divergence (Fast-Z). We assessed Z-linked divergence and effective population sizes for two polygynous sage-grouse species and compared them to estimates from birds with various mating systems. We found lower diversity and higher FST for Z-linked loci than for autosomes, as expected. The πZ/πA ratio was 0.38 in Centrocercus minimus, 0.48 in Centrocercus urophasianus and 0.59 in a diverged, parapatric population of C. urophasianus, a broad range given the mating system among these groups is presumably equivalent. The full data set had unequal males and females across groups, so we compared an equally balanced reduced set of C. minimus and individuals pooled from both C. urophasianus subgroups recovering similar estimates: 0.54 for C. urophasianus and 0.38 for C. minimus. We provide further evidence that NeZ/NeA in birds is often lower than expected under random mating or monogamy. The lower ratio in C. minimus could be a consequence of stronger selection or drift acting on Z loci during speciation, as this species differs strongly from C. urophasianus in sexually selected characters with minimal mitochondrial divergence. As C. minimus also exhibited lower genomic diversity, it is possible that a more severe demographic history may contribute to its lower ratio.

  18. Single-gene speciation with pleiotropy: effects of allele dominance, population size, and delayed inheritance.

    PubMed

    Yamamichi, Masato; Sasaki, Akira

    2013-07-01

    Single-gene speciation is considered to be unlikely, but an excellent example is found in land snails, in which a gene for left-right reversal has given rise to new species multiple times. This reversal might be facilitated by their small population sizes and maternal effect (i.e., "delayed inheritance," in which an individual's phenotype is determined by the genotype of its mother). Recent evidence suggests that a pleiotropic effect of the speciation gene on antipredator survival may also promote speciation. Here we theoretically demonstrate that, without a pleiotropic effect, in small populations the fixation probability of a recessive mutant is higher than a dominant mutant, but they are identical for large populations and sufficiently weak selection. With a pleiotropic effect that increases mutant viability, a dominant mutant has a higher fixation probability if the strength of viability selection is sufficiently greater than that of reproductive incompatibility, whereas a recessive mutant has a higher fixation probability otherwise. Delayed inheritance increases the fixation probability of a mutant if viability selection is sufficiently weaker than reproductive incompatibility. Our results clarify the conflicting effects of viability selection and positive frequency-dependent selection due to reproductive incompatibility and provide a new perspective to single-gene speciation theory. PMID:23815656

  19. Sub-sampling genetic data to estimate black bear population size: A case study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tredick, C.A.; Vaughan, M.R.; Stauffer, D.F.; Simek, S.L.; Eason, T.

    2007-01-01

    Costs for genetic analysis of hair samples collected for individual identification of bears average approximately US$50 [2004] per sample. This can easily exceed budgetary allowances for large-scale studies or studies of high-density bear populations. We used 2 genetic datasets from 2 areas in the southeastern United States to explore how reducing costs of analysis by sub-sampling affected precision and accuracy of resulting population estimates. We used several sub-sampling scenarios to create subsets of the full datasets and compared summary statistics, population estimates, and precision of estimates generated from these subsets to estimates generated from the complete datasets. Our results suggested that bias and precision of estimates improved as the proportion of total samples used increased, and heterogeneity models (e.g., Mh[CHAO]) were more robust to reduced sample sizes than other models (e.g., behavior models). We recommend that only high-quality samples (>5 hair follicles) be used when budgets are constrained, and efforts should be made to maximize capture and recapture rates in the field.

  20. Effective population size in eusocial Hymenoptera with worker-produced males

    PubMed Central

    Nomura, T; Takahashi, J

    2012-01-01

    In many eusocial Hymenoptera, a proportion of males are produced by workers. To assess the effect of male production by workers on the effective population size Ne, a general expression of Ne in Hymenoptera with worker-produced males is derived on the basis of the genetic drift in the frequency of a neutral allele. Stochastic simulation verifies that the obtained expression gives a good prediction of Ne under a wide range of conditions. Numerical computation with the expression indicates that worker reproduction generally reduces Ne. The reduction can be serious in populations with a unity or female-biased breeding sex ratio. Worker reproduction may increase Ne in populations with a male-biased breeding sex ratio, only if each laying worker produce a small number of males and the difference of male progeny number among workers is not large. Worker reproduction could be an important cause of the generally lower genetic variation found in Hymenoptera, through its effect on Ne. PMID:22948186

  1. Estimating the number of sex workers in South Africa: rapid population size estimation.

    PubMed

    Konstant, Tracey L; Rangasami, Jerushah; Stacey, Maria J; Stewart, Michelle L; Nogoduka, Coceka

    2015-02-01

    Although recognized as a vulnerable population, there is no national population size estimate for sex workers in South Africa. A rapid sex worker enumeration exercise was undertaken in twelve locations across the country based on principles of participatory mapping and Wisdom of the Crowd. Sites with a range of characteristics were selected, focusing on level of urbanisation, trucking, mining and borders. At each site, sex worker focus groups mapped local hotspots. Interviews with sex workers at identified hotspots were used to estimate the numbers and genders of sex workers working in each. Estimates provided in the literature were combined with enumeration exercise results to define assumptions that could be applied to a national extrapolation. A working estimate was reached of between 131,000 and 182,000 sex worker in South Africa, or between 0.76 and 1 % of the adult female population. The success of the exercise depended on integral involvement of sex worker peer educators and strong ethical considerations. PMID:25582921

  2. A PLATEAU IN THE PLANET POPULATION BELOW TWICE THE SIZE OF EARTH

    SciTech Connect

    Petigura, Erik A.; Marcy, Geoffrey W.; Howard, Andrew W.

    2013-06-10

    We carry out an independent search of Kepler photometry for small transiting planets with sizes 0.5-8.0 times that of Earth and orbital periods between 5 and 50 days, with the goal of measuring the fraction of stars harboring such planets. We use a new transit search algorithm, TERRA, optimized to detect small planets around photometrically quiet stars. We restrict our stellar sample to include the 12,000 stars having the lowest photometric noise in the Kepler survey, thereby maximizing the detectability of Earth-size planets. We report 129 planet candidates having radii less than 6 R{sub E} found in three years of Kepler photometry (quarters 1-12). Forty-seven of these candidates are not in Batalha et al., which only analyzed photometry from quarters 1-6. We gather Keck HIRES spectra for the majority of these targets leading to precise stellar radii and hence precise planet radii. We make a detailed measurement of the completeness of our planet search. We inject synthetic dimmings from mock transiting planets into the actual Kepler photometry. We then analyze that injected photometry with our TERRA pipeline to assess our detection completeness for planets of different sizes and orbital periods. We compute the occurrence of planets as a function of planet radius and period, correcting for the detection completeness as well as the geometric probability of transit, R{sub *}/a. The resulting distribution of planet sizes exhibits a power law rise in occurrence from 5.7 R{sub E} down to 2 R{sub E} , as found in Howard et al. That rise clearly ends at 2 R{sub E} . The occurrence of planets is consistent with constant from 2 R{sub E} toward 1 R{sub E} . This unexpected plateau in planet occurrence at 2 R{sub E} suggests distinct planet formation processes for planets above and below 2 R{sub E} . We find that 15.1{sup +1.8}{sub -2.7}% of solar type stars-roughly one in six-has a 1-2 R{sub E} planet with P = 5-50 days.

  3. Drought survival is a threshold function of habitat size and population density in a fish metapopulation.

    PubMed

    White, Richard S A; McHugh, Peter A; McIntosh, Angus R

    2016-10-01

    Because smaller habitats dry more frequently and severely during droughts, habitat size is likely a key driver of survival in populations during climate change and associated increased extreme drought frequency. Here, we show that survival in populations during droughts is a threshold function of habitat size driven by an interaction with population density in metapopulations of the forest pool dwelling fish, Neochanna apoda. A mark-recapture study involving 830 N. apoda individuals during a one-in-seventy-year extreme drought revealed that survival during droughts was high for populations occupying pools deeper than 139 mm, but declined steeply in shallower pools. This threshold was caused by an interaction between increasing population density and drought magnitude associated with decreasing habitat size, which acted synergistically to increase physiological stress and mortality. This confirmed two long-held hypotheses, firstly concerning the interactive role of population density and physiological stress, herein driven by habitat size, and secondly, the occurrence of drought survival thresholds. Our results demonstrate how survival in populations during droughts will depend strongly on habitat size and highlight that minimum habitat size thresholds will likely be required to maximize survival as the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase as a result of global climate change. PMID:26929393

  4. Samples from subdivided populations yield biased estimates of effective size that overestimate the rate of loss of genetic variation

    PubMed Central

    Ryman, Nils; Allendorf, Fred W; Jorde, Per Erik; Laikre, Linda; Hössjer, Ola

    2014-01-01

    Many empirical studies estimating effective population size apply the temporal method that provides an estimate of the variance effective size through the amount of temporal allele frequency change under the assumption that the study population is completely isolated. This assumption is frequently violated, and the magnitude of the resulting bias is generally unknown. We studied how gene flow affects estimates of effective size obtained by the temporal method when sampling from a population system and provide analytical expressions for the expected estimate under an island model of migration. We show that the temporal method tends to systematically underestimate both local and global effective size when populations are connected by gene flow, and the bias is sometimes dramatic. The problem is particularly likely to occur when sampling from a subdivided population where high levels of gene flow obscure identification of subpopulation boundaries. In such situations, sampling in a manner that prevents biased estimates can be difficult. This phenomenon might partially explain the frequently reported unexpectedly low effective population sizes of marine populations that have raised concern regarding the genetic vulnerability of even exceptionally large populations. PMID:24034449

  5. Mycorrhizal diversity, seed germination and long-term changes in population size across nine populations of the terrestrial orchid Neottia ovata.

    PubMed

    Jacquemyn, Hans; Waud, Michael; Merckx, Vincent S F T; Lievens, Bart; Brys, Rein

    2015-07-01

    In plant species that rely on mycorrhizal symbioses for germination and seedling establishment, seedling recruitment and temporal changes in abundance can be expected to depend on fungal community composition and local environmental conditions. However, disentangling the precise factors that determine recruitment success in species that critically rely on mycorrhizal fungi represents a major challenge. In this study, we used seed germination experiments, 454 amplicon pyrosequencing and assessment of soil conditions to investigate the factors driving changes in local abundance in 28 populations of the orchid Neottia ovata. Comparison of population sizes measured in 2003 and 2013 showed that nearly 60% of the studied populations had declined in size (average growth rate across all populations: -0.01). Investigation of the mycorrhizal fungi in both the roots and soil revealed a total of 68 species of putatively mycorrhizal fungi, 21 of which occurred exclusively in roots, 25 that occurred solely in soil and 22 that were observed in both the soil and roots. Seed germination was limited and significantly and positively related to soil moisture content and soil pH, but not to fungal community composition. Large populations or populations with high population growth rates showed significantly higher germination than small populations or populations declining in size, but no significant relationships were found between population size or growth and mycorrhizal diversity. Overall, these results indicate that temporal changes in abundance were related to the ability of seeds to germinate, but at the same time they provided limited evidence that variation in fungal communities played an important role in determining population dynamics. PMID:25963669

  6. Estimating the Size of HIV Key Affected Populations in Chongqing, China, Using the Network Scale-Up Method

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Wen; Wu, Guohui; Zhang, Wei; Hladik, Wolfgang; Abdul-Quader, Abu; Bulterys, Marc; Fuller, Serena; Wang, Lu

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To estimate the average social network size in the general population and the size of HIV key affected populations (KAPs) in Chongqing municipality using the network scale-up method (NSUM). Methods A general population survey was conducted in 2011 through a multistage random sampling method. Participants aged between 18 and 60 years were recruited. The average social network size (c) was estimated and adjusted by known population method. The size of HIV KAP in Chongqing municipality was estimated using the adjusted c value with adjustment for the transmission effect using the scaled respect factor. Results 3,026 inhabitants of Chongqing agreed to the survey, and 2,957 (97.7%) completed the questionnaire. The adjusted c value was 310. The estimated size of KAP was 28,418(95% Confidence Interval (CI):26,636∼30,201) for female sex workers (FSW), 163,199(95%CI:156,490∼169,908) for clients of FSW, 37,959(95%CI: 34,888∼41,030) for drug users (DU), 14,975(95%CI:13,047∼16,904) for injecting drug users (IDU) and 16,767(95%CI:14,602∼18,932) for men who have sex with men (MSM). The ratio of clients to FSW was 5.74∶1, and IDU accounted for 39.5% of the DU population. The estimates suggest that FSW account for 0.37% of the female population aged 15–49 years in Chongqing, and clients of FSW and MSM represent 2.09% and 0.21% of the male population aged 15–49 years in the city, respectively. Conclusion NSUM provides reasonable population size estimates for FSW, their clients, DU and IDU in Chongqing. However, it is likely to underestimate the population size of MSM even after adjusting for the transmission effect. PMID:23967246

  7. Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Tbilisi, Georgia; Multiple Methods and Triangulation of Findings

    PubMed Central

    Sulaberidze, Lela; Mirzazadeh, Ali; Chikovani, Ivdity; Shengelia, Natia; Tsereteli, Nino; Gotsadze, George

    2016-01-01

    Introduction An accurate estimation of the population size of men who have sex with men (MSM) is critical to the success of HIV program planning and to monitoring of the response to epidemic as a whole, but is quite often missing. In this study, our aim was to estimate the population size of MSM in Tbilisi, Georgia and compare it with other estimates in the region. Methods In the absence of a gold standard for estimating the population size of MSM, this study reports a range of methods, including network scale-up, mobile/web apps multiplier, service and unique object multiplier, network-based capture-recapture, Handcock RDS-based and Wisdom of Crowds methods. To apply all these methods, two surveys were conducted: first, a household survey among 1,015 adults from the general population, and second, a respondent driven sample of 210 MSM. We also conducted a literature review of MSM size estimation in Eastern European and Central Asian countries. Results The median population size of MSM generated from all previously mentioned methods was estimated to be 5,100 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3,243 ~ 9,088). This corresponds to 1.42% (95%CI: 0.9% ~ 2.53%) of the adult male population in Tbilisi. Conclusion Our size estimates of the MSM population (1.42% (95%CI: 0.9% ~ 2.53%) of the adult male population in Tbilisi) fall within ranges reported in other Eastern European and Central Asian countries. These estimates can provide valuable information for country level HIV prevention program planning and evaluation. Furthermore, we believe, that our results will narrow the gap in data availability on the estimates of the population size of MSM in the region. PMID:26828366

  8. Anthropometric measurements of knee joints in Thai population: correlation to the sizing of current knee prostheses.

    PubMed

    Chaichankul, Chaiyos; Tanavalee, Aree; Itiravivong, Pibul

    2011-01-01

    Anthropometric data on the distal femoral condyle and the proximal tibia of 200 knees in 200 Thai subjects were measured using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). The data including the resected femoral anterior-posterior (AP) length, the resected femoral medial-lateral (ML) width, the resected tibial AP length and the resected tibial ML width were measured. A characterization of the aspect ratio (the ML to AP dimensions) was made for the distal part of the femur and the aspect ratio (the AP to ML dimensions) was made for the proximal part of the tibia. All parameters were compared to the size of the total knee prosthesis with four prosthetic systems which currently used in Thailand: NexGen (Zimmer), P.F.C. Sigma (Depuy-Johnson & Johnson), Genesis II (Smith & nephew), and Scorpio (Stryker). The results of this study could provide fundamental data for the design of knee prostheses suitable for the Thai population. PMID:20133135

  9. Estimates of effective population size and inbreeding in South African indigenous chicken populations: implications for the conservation of unique genetic resources.

    PubMed

    Mtileni, Bohani; Dzama, Kennedy; Nephawe, Khathutshelo; Rhode, Clint

    2016-06-01

    Conservation of locally adapted indigenous livestock breeds has become an important objective in sustainable animal breeding, as these breeds represent a unique genetic resource. Therefore, the Agricultural Research Council of South Africa initiated a conservation programme for four South African indigenous chicken breeds. The evaluation and monitoring of the genetic constitution of these conservation flocks is important for proper management of the conservation programme. Using molecular genetic analyses, the effective population sizes and relatedness of these conservation flocks were compared to village (field) chicken populations from which they were derived. Genetic diversity within and between these populations are further discussed within the context of population size. The conservation flocks for the respective breeds had relatively small effective population sizes (point estimate range 38.6-78.6) in comparison to the field populations (point estimate range 118.9-580.0). Furthermore, evidence supports a transient heterozygous excess, generally associated with the occurrence of a recent population bottleneck. Genetic diversity, as measured by the number of alleles, heterozygosity and information index, was also significantly reduced in the conservation flocks. The average relatedness amongst the conservation flocks was high, whilst it remained low for the field populations. There was also significant evidence for population differentiation between field and conservation populations. F st estimates for conservation flocks were moderate to high with a maximum reached between VD_C and VD_F (0.285). However, F st estimates for field population were excessively low between the NN_C and EC_F (0.007) and between EC_F and OV_F (0.009). The significant population differentiation of the conservation flocks from their geographically correlated field populations of origin is further supported by the analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA), with 10.51 % of genetic

  10. The abundance and pollen foraging behaviour of bumble bees in relation to population size of whortleberry (Vaccinium uliginosum).

    PubMed

    Mayer, Carolin; Michez, Denis; Chyzy, Alban; Brédat, Elise; Jacquemart, Anne-Laure

    2012-01-01

    Habitat fragmentation can have severe effects on plant pollinator interactions, for example changing the foraging behaviour of pollinators. To date, the impact of plant population size on pollen collection by pollinators has not yet been investigated. From 2008 to 2010, we monitored nine bumble bee species (Bombus campestris, Bombus hortorum s.l., Bombus hypnorum, Bombus lapidarius, Bombus pascuorum, Bombus pratorum, Bombus soroensis, Bombus terrestris s.l., Bombus vestalis s.l.) on Vaccinium uliginosum (Ericaceae) in up to nine populations in Belgium ranging in size from 80 m(2) to over 3.1 ha. Bumble bee abundance declined with decreasing plant population size, and especially the proportion of individuals of large bumble bee species diminished in smaller populations. The most remarkable and novel observation was that bumble bees seemed to switch foraging behaviour according to population size: while they collected both pollen and nectar in large populations, they largely neglected pollen collection in small populations. This pattern was due to large bumble bee species, which seem thus to be more likely to suffer from pollen shortages in smaller habitat fragments. Comparing pollen loads of bumble bees we found that fidelity to V. uliginosum pollen did not depend on plant population size but rather on the extent shrub cover and/or openness of the site. Bumble bees collected pollen only from three plant species (V.uliginosum, Sorbus aucuparia and Cytisus scoparius). We also did not discover any pollination limitation of V. uliginosum in small populations. We conclude that habitat fragmentation might not immediately threaten the pollination of V. uliginosum, nevertheless, it provides important nectar and pollen resources for bumble bees and declining populations of this plant could have negative effects for its pollinators. The finding that large bumble bee species abandon pollen collection when plant populations become small is of interest when considering plant and

  11. General Triallelic Frequency Spectrum Under Demographic Models with Variable Population Size

    PubMed Central

    Jenkins, Paul A.; Mueller, Jonas W.; Song, Yun S.

    2014-01-01

    It is becoming routine to obtain data sets on DNA sequence variation across several thousands of chromosomes, providing unprecedented opportunity to infer the underlying biological and demographic forces. Such data make it vital to study summary statistics that offer enough compression to be tractable, while preserving a great deal of information. One well-studied summary is the site frequency spectrum—the empirical distribution, across segregating sites, of the sample frequency of the derived allele. However, most previous theoretical work has assumed that each site has experienced at most one mutation event in its genealogical history, which becomes less tenable for very large sample sizes. In this work we obtain, in closed form, the predicted frequency spectrum of a site that has experienced at most two mutation events, under very general assumptions about the distribution of branch lengths in the underlying coalescent tree. Among other applications, we obtain the frequency spectrum of a triallelic site in a model of historically varying population size. We demonstrate the utility of our formulas in two settings: First, we show that triallelic sites are more sensitive to the parameters of a population that has experienced historical growth, suggesting that they will have use if they can be incorporated into demographic inference. Second, we investigate a recently proposed alternative mechanism of mutation in which the two derived alleles of a triallelic site are created simultaneously within a single individual, and we develop a test to determine whether it is responsible for the excess of triallelic sites in the human genome. PMID:24214345

  12. Fish population size and movement patterns in a small intermittently open South African estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lukey, J. R.; Booth, A. J.; Froneman, P. W.

    2006-03-01

    The population size and movement patterns of small fish (>50 mm SL) in a small intermittently open estuary (Grant's Valley estuary: 33°40'12.1″S, 26°42'12.6″E) situated on the south-east Cape coast of South Africa were examined during the closed phase over the period May and August 2004. The estuary was subdivided into four discrete areas and the fish within each area sampled using a 30 m seine net (15 mm mesh). Fish captured were marked by fin clipping according to the area of capture. Fish population size was estimated by using three methods: the Schnabel estimator, the Hilborn estimator, and a derived estimator. A total of 12 species was captured and marked during the study. The total number of fish in the estuary was estimated at ca. 12 000 individuals (11 219-13 311). Marine-breeding species ( Rhabdosargus holubi, Monodactylus falciformis, and two mullet species) numerically dominated the ichthyofauna, possibly as a result of their effective use of overtopping events, when seawater washes over the sandbar, to enter the estuary during the closed mouth phase. The two mullet species, Myxus capensis and Liza richardsonii, and the Cape stumpnose, R. holubi moved extensively throughout the estuary, while the remaining species exhibited restricted movement patterns possibly due to the preference for refuge and foraging areas associated with reed beds. The observed movement patterns of individual fish species appeared to be associated with both foraging behaviour and habitat selection.

  13. GONe: software for estimating effective population size in species with generational overlap.

    PubMed

    Coombs, J A; Letcher, B H; Nislow, K H

    2012-01-01

    GONe is a user-friendly, Windows-based program for estimating effective size (N(e) ) in populations with overlapping generations. It uses the Jorde-Ryman modification to the temporal method to account for age structure in populations. This method requires estimates of age-specific survival and birth rate and allele frequencies measured in two or more consecutive cohorts. Allele frequencies are acquired by reading in genotypic data from files formatted for either GENEPOP or TEMPOFS. For each interval between consecutive cohorts, N(e) is estimated at each locus and over all loci. Furthermore, N(e) estimates are output for three different genetic drift estimators (F(s) , F(c) and F(k) ). Confidence intervals are derived from a chi-square distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the number of independent alleles. GONe has been validated over a wide range of N(e) values, and for scenarios where survival and birth rates differ between sexes, sex ratios are unequal and reproductive variances differ. GONe is freely available for download at https://bcrc.bio.umass.edu/pedigreesoftware/. PMID:21827640

  14. Estimation of avian population sizes and species richness across a boreal landscape in Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Handel, C.M.; Swanson, S.A.; Nigro, Debora A.; Matsuoka, S.M.

    2009-01-01

    We studied the distribution of birds breeding within five ecological landforms in Yukon-Charley Rivers National Preserve, a 10,194-km2 roadless conservation unit on the Alaska-Canada border in the boreal forest zone. Passerines dominated the avifauna numerically, comprising 97% of individuals surveyed but less than half of the 115 species recorded in the Preserve. We used distance-sampling and discrete-removal models to estimate detection probabilities, densities, and population sizes across the Preserve for 23 species of migrant passerines and five species of resident passerines. Yellow-rumped Warblers (Dendroica coronata) and Dark-eyed Juncos (Junco hyemalis) were the most abundant species, together accounting for 41% of the migrant passerine populations estimated. White-winged Crossbills (Loxia leucoptera), Boreal Chickadees (Poecile hudsonica), and Gray Jays (Perisoreus canadensis) were the most abundant residents. Species richness was greatest in the Floodplain/Terrace landform flanking the Yukon River but densities were highest in the Subalpine landform. Species composition was related to past glacial history and current physiography of the region and differed notably from other areas of the northwestern boreal forest. Point-transect surveys, augmented with auxiliary observations, were well suited to sampling the largely passerine avifauna across this rugged landscape and could be used across the boreal forest region to monitor changes in northern bird distribution and abundance. ?? 2009 The Wilson Ornithological Society.

  15. GONe: Software for estimating effective population size in species with generational overlap

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coombs, J.A.; Letcher, B.H.; Nislow, K.H.

    2012-01-01

    GONe is a user-friendly, Windows-based program for estimating effective size (N e) in populations with overlapping generations. It uses the Jorde-Ryman modification to the temporal method to account for age structure in populations. This method requires estimates of age-specific survival and birth rate and allele frequencies measured in two or more consecutive cohorts. Allele frequencies are acquired by reading in genotypic data from files formatted for either GENEPOP or TEMPOFS. For each interval between consecutive cohorts, N e is estimated at each locus and over all loci. Furthermore, N e estimates are output for three different genetic drift estimators (F s, F c and F k). Confidence intervals are derived from a chi-square distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the number of independent alleles. GONe has been validated over a wide range of N e values, and for scenarios where survival and birth rates differ between sexes, sex ratios are unequal and reproductive variances differ. GONe is freely available for download at. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  16. Two Test Items to Explore High School Students' Beliefs of Sample Size When Sampling from Large Populations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bill, Anthony; Henderson, Sally; Penman, John

    2010-01-01

    Two test items that examined high school students' beliefs of sample size for large populations using the context of opinion polls conducted prior to national and state elections were developed. A trial of the two items with 21 male and 33 female Year 9 students examined their naive understanding of sample size: over half of students chose a…

  17. Assembly history of subhalo populations in galactic and cluster sized dark haloes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Lizhi; Gao, Liang

    2015-12-01

    We make use of two suits of ultrahigh resolution N-body simulations of individual dark matter haloes from the Phoenix and the Aquarius Projects to investigate systematics of assembly history of subhaloes in dark matter haloes differing by a factor of 1000 in the halo mass. We have found that real progenitors which built up present-day subhalo population are relatively more abundant for high-mass haloes, in contrast to previous studies claiming a universal form independent of the host halo mass. That is mainly because of repeated counting of the `re-accreted' (progenitors passed through and were later re-accreted to the host more than once) and inclusion of the `ejected' progenitor population (progenitors were accreted to the host in the past but no longer members at present day) in previous studies. The typical accretion time for all progenitors vary strongly with the host halo mass, which is typical about z ˜ 5 for the galactic Aquarius and about z ˜ 3 for the cluster sized Phoenix haloes. Once these progenitors start to orbit their parent haloes, they rapidly lose their original mass but not their identifiers, more than 55 (50) per cent of them survive to present day for the Phoenix (Aquarius) haloes. At given redshift, survival fraction of the accreted subhalo is independent of the parent halo mass, whilst the mass-loss of the subhalo is more efficient in high-mass haloes. These systematics results in similarity and difference in the subhalo population in dark matter haloes of different masses at present day.

  18. Simple life-history traits explain key effective population size ratios across diverse taxa

    PubMed Central

    Waples, Robin S.; Luikart, Gordon; Faulkner, James R.; Tallmon, David A.

    2013-01-01

    Effective population size (Ne) controls both the rate of random genetic drift and the effectiveness of selection and migration, but it is difficult to estimate in nature. In particular, for species with overlapping generations, it is easier to estimate the effective number of breeders in one reproductive cycle (Nb) than Ne per generation. We empirically evaluated the relationship between life history and ratios of Ne, Nb and adult census size (N) using a recently developed model (agene) and published vital rates for 63 iteroparous animals and plants. Nb/Ne varied a surprising sixfold across species and, contrary to expectations, Nb was larger than Ne in over half the species. Up to two-thirds of the variance in Nb/Ne and up to half the variance in Ne/N was explained by just two life-history traits (age at maturity and adult lifespan) that have long interested both ecologists and evolutionary biologists. These results provide novel insights into, and demonstrate a close general linkage between, demographic and evolutionary processes across diverse taxa. For the first time, our results also make it possible to interpret rapidly accumulating estimates of Nb in the context of the rich body of evolutionary theory based on Ne per generation. PMID:23926150

  19. Results and evaluation of a survey to estimate Pacific walrus population size, 2006

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Speckman, Suzann G.; Chernook, Vladimir I.; Burn, Douglas M.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Kochnev, Anatoly A.; Vasilev, Alexander; Jay, Chadwick V.; Lisovsky, Alexander; Fischbach, Anthony S.; Benter, R. Bradley

    2011-01-01

    In spring 2006, we conducted a collaborative U.S.-Russia survey to estimate abundance of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens). The Bering Sea was partitioned into survey blocks, and a systematic random sample of transects within a subset of the blocks was surveyed with airborne thermal scanners using standard strip-transect methodology. Counts of walruses in photographed groups were used to model the relation between thermal signatures and the number of walruses in groups, which was used to estimate the number of walruses in groups that were detected by the scanner but not photographed. We also modeled the probability of thermally detecting various-sized walrus groups to estimate the number of walruses in groups undetected by the scanner. We used data from radio-tagged walruses to adjust on-ice estimates to account for walruses in the water during the survey. The estimated area of available habitat averaged 668,000 km2 and the area of surveyed blocks was 318,204 km2. The number of Pacific walruses within the surveyed area was estimated at 129,000 with 95% confidence limits of 55,000 to 507,000 individuals. This value can be used by managers as a minimum estimate of the total population size.

  20. Development of an online database of typical food portion sizes in Irish population groups.

    PubMed

    Lyons, Jacqueline; Walton, Janette; Flynn, Albert

    2013-01-01

    The Irish Food Portion Sizes Database (available at www.iuna.net) describes typical portion weights for an extensive range of foods and beverages for Irish children, adolescents and adults. The present paper describes the methodologies used to develop the database and some key characteristics of the portion weight data contained therein. The data are derived from three large, cross-sectional food consumption surveys carried out in Ireland over the last decade: the National Children's Food Survey (2003-2004), National Teens' Food Survey (2005-2006) and National Adult Nutrition Survey (2008-2010). Median, 25th and 75th percentile portion weights are described for a total of 545 items across the three survey groups, split by age group or sex as appropriate. The typical (median) portion weights reported for adolescents and adults are similar for many foods, while those reported for children are notably smaller. Adolescent and adult males generally consume larger portions than their female counterparts, though similar portion weights may be consumed where foods are packaged in unit amounts (for example, pots of yoghurt). The inclusion of energy under-reporters makes little difference to the estimation of typical portion weights in adults. The data have wide-ranging applications in dietary assessment and food labelling, and will serve as a useful reference against which to compare future portion size data from the Irish population. The present paper provides a useful context for researchers and others wishing to use the Irish Food Portion Sizes Database, and may guide researchers in other countries in establishing similar databases of their own. PMID:25191574

  1. 45 CFR Appendix C to Part 1356 - Calculating Sample Size for NYTD Follow-Up Populations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... Populations C Appendix C to Part 1356 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) OFFICE... Follow-Up Populations 1. Using Finite Population Correction The Finite Population Correction (FPC) is applied when the sample is drawn from a population of one to 5,000 youth, because the sample is more...

  2. 45 CFR Appendix C to Part 1356 - Calculating Sample Size for NYTD Follow-Up Populations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... Populations C Appendix C to Part 1356 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) OFFICE... Follow-Up Populations 1. Using Finite Population Correction The Finite Population Correction (FPC) is applied when the sample is drawn from a population of one to 5,000 youth, because the sample is more...

  3. 45 CFR Appendix C to Part 1356 - Calculating Sample Size for NYTD Follow-Up Populations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... Populations C Appendix C to Part 1356 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) OFFICE... Follow-Up Populations 1. Using Finite Population Correction The Finite Population Correction (FPC) is applied when the sample is drawn from a population of one to 5,000 youth, because the sample is more...

  4. 45 CFR Appendix C to Part 1356 - Calculating Sample Size for NYTD Follow-Up Populations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... Populations C Appendix C to Part 1356 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) OFFICE... Follow-Up Populations 1. Using Finite Population Correction The Finite Population Correction (FPC) is applied when the sample is drawn from a population of one to 5,000 youth, because the sample is more...

  5. 45 CFR Appendix C to Part 1356 - Calculating Sample Size for NYTD Follow-Up Populations

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... Populations C Appendix C to Part 1356 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) OFFICE... Follow-Up Populations 1. Using Finite Population Correction The Finite Population Correction (FPC) is applied when the sample is drawn from a population of one to 5,000 youth, because the sample is more...

  6. A Re-Evaluation of the Size of the White Shark (Carcharodon carcharias) Population off California, USA

    PubMed Central

    Burgess, George H.; Bruce, Barry D.; Cailliet, Gregor M.; Goldman, Kenneth J.; Grubbs, R. Dean; Lowe, Christopher G.; MacNeil, M. Aaron; Mollet, Henry F.; Weng, Kevin C.; O'Sullivan, John B.

    2014-01-01

    White sharks are highly migratory and segregate by sex, age and size. Unlike marine mammals, they neither surface to breathe nor frequent haul-out sites, hindering generation of abundance data required to estimate population size. A recent tag-recapture study used photographic identifications of white sharks at two aggregation sites to estimate abundance in “central California” at 219 mature and sub-adult individuals. They concluded this represented approximately one-half of the total abundance of mature and sub-adult sharks in the entire eastern North Pacific Ocean (ENP). This low estimate generated great concern within the conservation community, prompting petitions for governmental endangered species designations. We critically examine that study and find violations of model assumptions that, when considered in total, lead to population underestimates. We also use a Bayesian mixture model to demonstrate that the inclusion of transient sharks, characteristic of white shark aggregation sites, would substantially increase abundance estimates for the adults and sub-adults in the surveyed sub-population. Using a dataset obtained from the same sampling locations and widely accepted demographic methodology, our analysis indicates a minimum all-life stages population size of >2000 individuals in the California subpopulation is required to account for the number and size range of individual sharks observed at the two sampled sites. Even accounting for methodological and conceptual biases, an extrapolation of these data to estimate the white shark population size throughout the ENP is inappropriate. The true ENP white shark population size is likely several-fold greater as both our study and the original published estimate exclude non-aggregating sharks and those that independently aggregate at other important ENP sites. Accurately estimating the central California and ENP white shark population size requires methodologies that account for biases introduced by

  7. A re-evaluation of the size of the white shark (Carcharodon carcharias) population off California, USA.

    PubMed

    Burgess, George H; Bruce, Barry D; Cailliet, Gregor M; Goldman, Kenneth J; Grubbs, R Dean; Lowe, Christopher G; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mollet, Henry F; Weng, Kevin C; O'Sullivan, John B

    2014-01-01

    White sharks are highly migratory and segregate by sex, age and size. Unlike marine mammals, they neither surface to breathe nor frequent haul-out sites, hindering generation of abundance data required to estimate population size. A recent tag-recapture study used photographic identifications of white sharks at two aggregation sites to estimate abundance in "central California" at 219 mature and sub-adult individuals. They concluded this represented approximately one-half of the total abundance of mature and sub-adult sharks in the entire eastern North Pacific Ocean (ENP). This low estimate generated great concern within the conservation community, prompting petitions for governmental endangered species designations. We critically examine that study and find violations of model assumptions that, when considered in total, lead to population underestimates. We also use a Bayesian mixture model to demonstrate that the inclusion of transient sharks, characteristic of white shark aggregation sites, would substantially increase abundance estimates for the adults and sub-adults in the surveyed sub-population. Using a dataset obtained from the same sampling locations and widely accepted demographic methodology, our analysis indicates a minimum all-life stages population size of >2000 individuals in the California subpopulation is required to account for the number and size range of individual sharks observed at the two sampled sites. Even accounting for methodological and conceptual biases, an extrapolation of these data to estimate the white shark population size throughout the ENP is inappropriate. The true ENP white shark population size is likely several-fold greater as both our study and the original published estimate exclude non-aggregating sharks and those that independently aggregate at other important ENP sites. Accurately estimating the central California and ENP white shark population size requires methodologies that account for biases introduced by sampling a

  8. New Nuclear SNP Markers Unravel the Genetic Structure and Effective Population Size of Albacore Tuna (Thunnus alalunga)

    PubMed Central

    Laconcha, Urtzi; Iriondo, Mikel; Arrizabalaga, Haritz; Manzano, Carmen; Markaide, Pablo; Montes, Iratxe; Zarraonaindia, Iratxe; Velado, Igor; Bilbao, Eider; Goñi, Nicolas; Santiago, Josu; Domingo, Andrés; Karakulak, Saadet; Oray, Işık; Estonba, Andone

    2015-01-01

    In the present study we have investigated the population genetic structure of albacore (Thunnus alalunga, Bonnaterre 1788) and assessed the loss of genetic diversity, likely due to overfishing, of albacore population in the North Atlantic Ocean. For this purpose, 1,331 individuals from 26 worldwide locations were analyzed by genotyping 75 novel nuclear SNPs. Our results indicated the existence of four genetically homogeneous populations delimited within the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Current definition of stocks allows the sustainable management of albacore since no stock includes more than one genetic entity. In addition, short- and long-term effective population sizes were estimated for the North Atlantic Ocean albacore population, and results showed no historical decline for this population. Therefore, the genetic diversity and, consequently, the adaptive potential of this population have not been significantly affected by overfishing. PMID:26090851

  9. New Nuclear SNP Markers Unravel the Genetic Structure and Effective Population Size of Albacore Tuna (Thunnus alalunga).

    PubMed

    Laconcha, Urtzi; Iriondo, Mikel; Arrizabalaga, Haritz; Manzano, Carmen; Markaide, Pablo; Montes, Iratxe; Zarraonaindia, Iratxe; Velado, Igor; Bilbao, Eider; Goñi, Nicolas; Santiago, Josu; Domingo, Andrés; Karakulak, Saadet; Oray, Işık; Estonba, Andone

    2015-01-01

    In the present study we have investigated the population genetic structure of albacore (Thunnus alalunga, Bonnaterre 1788) and assessed the loss of genetic diversity, likely due to overfishing, of albacore population in the North Atlantic Ocean. For this purpose, 1,331 individuals from 26 worldwide locations were analyzed by genotyping 75 novel nuclear SNPs. Our results indicated the existence of four genetically homogeneous populations delimited within the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. Current definition of stocks allows the sustainable management of albacore since no stock includes more than one genetic entity. In addition, short- and long-term effective population sizes were estimated for the North Atlantic Ocean albacore population, and results showed no historical decline for this population. Therefore, the genetic diversity and, consequently, the adaptive potential of this population have not been significantly affected by overfishing. PMID:26090851

  10. Succession stage variation in population size in an early-successional herb in a peri-urban forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Rossum, Fabienne

    2009-03-01

    Urban and peri-urban forests incur high anthropogenic pressures (e.g. recreational activities, artificialization, and eutrophication). Plant species from early-successional, transient, forest habitats, often characterized by a short life span and a persistent seed bank in the soil may differ from late-successional species in key-factors for population persistence. This study investigated variation in population size and seedling recruitment for different forest succession stages and three consecutive years in Centaurium erythraea, an early-successional biennial herb, occurring in a peri-urban forest of Brussels urban zone (Belgium). Forest succession stage had a significant impact on C. erythraea population size and on its temporal fluctuation. Populations in closing vegetation (evolving to late-succession stages) showed small population sizes and a low number of recruits compared to populations from stable early-succession vegetation and clearcuts. The number of recruits was the highest after clearcutting, which can be related to the expression of the soil seed bank. Populations showed year-to-year variation in size (flowering individuals and recruits), even in stable (over three years) early-succession forest vegetation. In the absence of disturbance changing succession stage, population size is expected to depend on seed set of the previous years and subsequent seedling recruitment, which can be affected by environmental stochasticity. Opening gaps in the herbaceous vegetation may stimulate seedling recruitment, also in unoccupied patches where "cryptic" seed populations are present in the soil. Forest path and road verges, despite their potential negative impact on forests, can constitute refuge habitats for early-successional forest plant species. Their management should involve the preservation of these species.

  11. Population size drives industrial Saccharomyces cerevisiae alcoholic fermentation and is under genetic control.

    PubMed

    Albertin, Warren; Marullo, Philippe; Aigle, Michel; Dillmann, Christine; de Vienne, Dominique; Bely, Marina; Sicard, Delphine

    2011-04-01

    Alcoholic fermentation (AF) conducted by Saccharomyces cerevisiae has been exploited for millennia in three important human food processes: beer and wine production and bread leavening. Most of the efforts to understand and improve AF have been made separately for each process, with strains that are supposedly well adapted. In this work, we propose a first comparison of yeast AFs in three synthetic media mimicking the dough/wort/grape must found in baking, brewing, and wine making. The fermentative behaviors of nine food-processing strains were evaluated in these media, at the cellular, populational, and biotechnological levels. A large variation in the measured traits was observed, with medium effects usually being greater than the strain effects. The results suggest that human selection targeted the ability to complete fermentation for wine strains and trehalose content for beer strains. Apart from these features, the food origin of the strains did not significantly affect AF, suggesting that an improvement program for a specific food processing industry could exploit the variability of strains used in other industries. Glucose utilization was analyzed, revealing plastic but also genetic variation in fermentation products and indicating that artificial selection could be used to modify the production of glycerol, acetate, etc. The major result was that the overall maximum CO(2) production rate (V(max)) was not related to the maximum CO(2) production rate per cell. Instead, a highly significant correlation between V(max) and the maximum population size was observed in all three media, indicating that human selection targeted the efficiency of cellular reproduction rather than metabolic efficiency. This result opens the way to new strategies for yeast improvement. PMID:21357433

  12. Landscape selection by piping plovers has implications for measuring habitat and population size

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anteau, Michael J.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.; Sherfy, Mark H.

    2014-01-01

    How breeding birds distribute in relation to landscape-scale habitat features has important implications for conservation because those features may constrain habitat suitability. Furthermore, knowledge of these associations can help build models to improve area-wide demographic estimates or to develop a sampling stratification for research and monitoring. This is particularly important for rare species that have uneven distributions across vast areas, such as the federally listed piping plover (Charadrius melodus; hereafter plover). We examined how remotely-sensed landscape features influenced the distribution of breeding plover pairs among 2-km shoreline segments during 2006–2009 at Lake Sakakawea in North Dakota, USA. We found strong associations between remotely-sensed landscape features and plover abundance and distribution (R2 = 0.65). Plovers were nearly absent from segments with bluffs (>25 m elevation increase within 250 m of shoreline). Relative plover density (pairs/ha) was markedly greater on islands (4.84 ± 1.22 SE) than on mainlands (0.85 ± 0.17 SE). Pair numbers increased with abundance of nesting habitat (unvegetated-flat areas β^=0.28±0.08SE ). On islands, pair numbers also increased with the relative proportion of the total area that was habitat ( β^=3.27±0.46SE ). Our model could be adapted to estimate the breeding population of plovers or to make predictions that provide a basis for stratification and design of future surveys. Knowledge of landscape features, such as bluffs, that exclude use by birds refines habitat suitability and facilitates more accurate estimates of habitat and population abundance, by decreasing the size of the sampling universe. Furthermore, techniques demonstrated here are applicable to other vast areas where birds breed in sparse or uneven densities.

  13. Population Size Drives Industrial Saccharomyces cerevisiae Alcoholic Fermentation and Is under Genetic Control▿†‡

    PubMed Central

    Albertin, Warren; Marullo, Philippe; Aigle, Michel; Dillmann, Christine; de Vienne, Dominique; Bely, Marina; Sicard, Delphine

    2011-01-01

    Alcoholic fermentation (AF) conducted by Saccharomyces cerevisiae has been exploited for millennia in three important human food processes: beer and wine production and bread leavening. Most of the efforts to understand and improve AF have been made separately for each process, with strains that are supposedly well adapted. In this work, we propose a first comparison of yeast AFs in three synthetic media mimicking the dough/wort/grape must found in baking, brewing, and wine making. The fermentative behaviors of nine food-processing strains were evaluated in these media, at the cellular, populational, and biotechnological levels. A large variation in the measured traits was observed, with medium effects usually being greater than the strain effects. The results suggest that human selection targeted the ability to complete fermentation for wine strains and trehalose content for beer strains. Apart from these features, the food origin of the strains did not significantly affect AF, suggesting that an improvement program for a specific food processing industry could exploit the variability of strains used in other industries. Glucose utilization was analyzed, revealing plastic but also genetic variation in fermentation products and indicating that artificial selection could be used to modify the production of glycerol, acetate, etc. The major result was that the overall maximum CO2 production rate (Vmax) was not related to the maximum CO2 production rate per cell. Instead, a highly significant correlation between Vmax and the maximum population size was observed in all three media, indicating that human selection targeted the efficiency of cellular reproduction rather than metabolic efficiency. This result opens the way to new strategies for yeast improvement. PMID:21357433

  14. Effects of overlapping generations on linkage disequilibrium estimates of effective population size.

    PubMed

    Waples, Robin S; Antao, Tiago; Luikart, Gordon

    2014-06-01

    Use of single-sample genetic methods to estimate effective population size has skyrocketed in recent years. Although the underlying models assume discrete generations, they are widely applied to age-structured species. We simulated genetic data for 21 iteroparous animal and plant species to evaluate two untested hypotheses regarding performance of the single-sample method based on linkage disequilibrium (LD): (1) estimates based on single-cohort samples reflect the effective number of breeders in one reproductive cycle (Nb), and (2) mixed-age samples reflect the effective size per generation (Ne). We calculated true Ne and Nb, using the model species' vital rates, and verified these with individual-based simulations. We show that single-cohort samples should be equally influenced by Nb and Ne and confirm this with simulated results: [Formula: see text] was a linear (r(2) = 0.98) function of the harmonic mean of Ne and Nb. We provide a quantitative bias correction for raw [Formula: see text] based on the ratio Nb/Ne, which can be estimated from two or three simple life history traits. Bias-adjusted estimates were within 5% of true Nb for all 21 study species and proved robust when challenged with new data. Mixed-age adult samples produced downwardly biased estimates in all species, which we attribute to a two-locus Wahlund effect (mixture LD) caused by combining parents from different cohorts in a single sample. Results from this study will facilitate interpretation of rapidly accumulating genetic estimates in terms of both Ne (which influences long-term evolutionary processes) and Nb (which is more important for understanding eco-evolutionary dynamics and mating systems). PMID:24717176

  15. Effects of Overlapping Generations on Linkage Disequilibrium Estimates of Effective Population Size

    PubMed Central

    Waples, Robin S.; Antao, Tiago; Luikart, Gordon

    2014-01-01

    Use of single-sample genetic methods to estimate effective population size has skyrocketed in recent years. Although the underlying models assume discrete generations, they are widely applied to age-structured species. We simulated genetic data for 21 iteroparous animal and plant species to evaluate two untested hypotheses regarding performance of the single-sample method based on linkage disequilibrium (LD): (1) estimates based on single-cohort samples reflect the effective number of breeders in one reproductive cycle (Nb), and (2) mixed-age samples reflect the effective size per generation (Ne). We calculated true Ne and Nb, using the model species’ vital rates, and verified these with individual-based simulations. We show that single-cohort samples should be equally influenced by Nb and Ne and confirm this with simulated results: N^b was a linear (r2 = 0.98) function of the harmonic mean of Ne and Nb. We provide a quantitative bias correction for raw N^b based on the ratio Nb/Ne, which can be estimated from two or three simple life history traits. Bias-adjusted estimates were within 5% of true Nb for all 21 study species and proved robust when challenged with new data. Mixed-age adult samples produced downwardly biased estimates in all species, which we attribute to a two-locus Wahlund effect (mixture LD) caused by combining parents from different cohorts in a single sample. Results from this study will facilitate interpretation of rapidly accumulating genetic estimates in terms of both Ne (which influences long-term evolutionary processes) and Nb (which is more important for understanding eco-evolutionary dynamics and mating systems). PMID:24717176

  16. On being the right size: the impact of population size and stochastic effects on the evolution of drug resistance in hospitals and the community.

    PubMed

    Kouyos, Roger D; Abel Zur Wiesch, Pia; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian

    2011-04-01

    The evolution of drug resistant bacteria is a severe public health problem, both in hospitals and in the community. Currently, some countries aim at concentrating highly specialized services in large hospitals in order to improve patient outcomes. Emergent resistant strains often originate in health care facilities, but it is unknown to what extent hospital size affects resistance evolution and the resulting spillover of hospital-associated pathogens to the community. We used two published datasets from the US and Ireland to investigate the effects of hospital size and controlled for several confounders such as antimicrobial usage, sampling frequency, mortality, disinfection and length of stay. The proportion of patients acquiring both sensitive and resistant infections in a hospital strongly correlated with hospital size. Moreover, we observe the same pattern for both the percentage of resistant infections and the increase of hospital-acquired infections over time. One interpretation of this pattern is that chance effects in small hospitals impede the spread of drug-resistance. To investigate to what extent the size distribution of hospitals can directly affect the prevalence of antibiotic resistance, we use a stochastic epidemiological model describing the spread of drug resistance in a hospital setting as well as the interaction between one or several hospitals and the community. We show that the level of drug resistance typically increases with population size: In small hospitals chance effects cause large fluctuations in pathogen population size or even extinctions, both of which impede the acquisition and spread of drug resistance. Finally, we show that indirect transmission via environmental reservoirs can reduce the effect of hospital size because the slow turnover in the environment can prevent extinction of resistant strains. This implies that reducing environmental transmission is especially important in small hospitals, because such a reduction not only

  17. Four types of interference competition and their impacts on the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations and communities.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Lai; Andersen, Ken H; Dieckmann, Ulf; Brännström, Åke

    2015-09-01

    We investigate how four types of interference competition - which alternatively affect foraging, metabolism, survival, and reproduction - impact the ecology and evolution of size-structured populations. Even though all four types of interference competition reduce population biomass, interference competition at intermediate intensity sometimes significantly increases the abundance of adult individuals and the population׳s reproduction rate. We find that foraging and metabolic interference evolutionarily favor smaller maturation size when interference is weak and larger maturation size when interference is strong. The evolutionary response to survival interference and reproductive interference is always larger maturation size. We also investigate how the four types of interference competition impact the evolutionary dynamics and resultant diversity and trophic structure of size-structured communities. Like other types of trait-mediated competition, all four types of interference competition can induce disruptive selection and thus promote initial diversification. Even though foraging interference and reproductive interference are more potent in promoting initial diversification, they catalyze the formation of diverse communities with complex trophic structure only at high levels of interference intensity. By contrast, survival interference does so already at intermediate levels, while reproductive interference can only support relatively smaller communities with simpler trophic structure. Taken together, our results show how the type and intensity of interference competition jointly affect coexistence patterns in structured population models. PMID:26025318

  18. Inferring Population Size History from Large Samples of Genome-Wide Molecular Data - An Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach.

    PubMed

    Boitard, Simon; Rodríguez, Willy; Jay, Flora; Mona, Stefano; Austerlitz, Frédéric

    2016-03-01

    Inferring the ancestral dynamics of effective population size is a long-standing question in population genetics, which can now be tackled much more accurately thanks to the massive genomic data available in many species. Several promising methods that take advantage of whole-genome sequences have been recently developed in this context. However, they can only be applied to rather small samples, which limits their ability to estimate recent population size history. Besides, they can be very sensitive to sequencing or phasing errors. Here we introduce a new approximate Bayesian computation approach named PopSizeABC that allows estimating the evolution of the effective population size through time, using a large sample of complete genomes. This sample is summarized using the folded allele frequency spectrum and the average zygotic linkage disequilibrium at different bins of physical distance, two classes of statistics that are widely used in population genetics and can be easily computed from unphased and unpolarized SNP data. Our approach provides accurate estimations of past population sizes, from the very first generations before present back to the expected time to the most recent common ancestor of the sample, as shown by simulations under a wide range of demographic scenarios. When applied to samples of 15 or 25 complete genomes in four cattle breeds (Angus, Fleckvieh, Holstein and Jersey), PopSizeABC revealed a series of population declines, related to historical events such as domestication or modern breed creation. We further highlight that our approach is robust to sequencing errors, provided summary statistics are computed from SNPs with common alleles. PMID:26943927

  19. Inferring Population Size History from Large Samples of Genome-Wide Molecular Data - An Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach

    PubMed Central

    Boitard, Simon; Rodríguez, Willy; Jay, Flora; Mona, Stefano; Austerlitz, Frédéric

    2016-01-01

    Inferring the ancestral dynamics of effective population size is a long-standing question in population genetics, which can now be tackled much more accurately thanks to the massive genomic data available in many species. Several promising methods that take advantage of whole-genome sequences have been recently developed in this context. However, they can only be applied to rather small samples, which limits their ability to estimate recent population size history. Besides, they can be very sensitive to sequencing or phasing errors. Here we introduce a new approximate Bayesian computation approach named PopSizeABC that allows estimating the evolution of the effective population size through time, using a large sample of complete genomes. This sample is summarized using the folded allele frequency spectrum and the average zygotic linkage disequilibrium at different bins of physical distance, two classes of statistics that are widely used in population genetics and can be easily computed from unphased and unpolarized SNP data. Our approach provides accurate estimations of past population sizes, from the very first generations before present back to the expected time to the most recent common ancestor of the sample, as shown by simulations under a wide range of demographic scenarios. When applied to samples of 15 or 25 complete genomes in four cattle breeds (Angus, Fleckvieh, Holstein and Jersey), PopSizeABC revealed a series of population declines, related to historical events such as domestication or modern breed creation. We further highlight that our approach is robust to sequencing errors, provided summary statistics are computed from SNPs with common alleles. PMID:26943927

  20. Population size and relative abundance of adult Alabama shad reaching jim woodruff lock and dam, Apalachicola River, Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ely, Patrick C.; Young, S.P.; Isely, J.J.

    2008-01-01

    We estimated the population size of migrating Alabama shad Alosa alabamae below Jim Woodruff Lock and Dam in the Apalachicola River (located in the central panhandle of northwestern Florida) using mark-recapture and relative abundance techniques. After adjustment for tag loss, emigration, and mortality, the population size was estimated as 25,935 (95% confidence interval, 17,715-39,535) in 2005, 2,767 (838-5,031) in 2006, and 8,511 (5,211-14,674) in 2007. The cumulative catch rate from boat electrofishing averaged 20.47 Alabama shad per hour in 2005, 6.10 per hour in 2006, and 13.17 per hour in 2007. The relationship between population size (N) and electrofishing catch per unit effort (CPUE) was modeled by the equation N = -9008.2 + (electrofishing CPUE X 1616.4). Additionally, in 2007 the hook-and-line catch rate averaged 1.94 Alabama shad per rod hour. A predictive model relating the population size and hook-and-line CPUE of spawning American shad A. sapidissima was applied to Alabama shad hook-and-line CPUE and produced satisfactory results. Recent spawning populations of Alabama shad in the Apalachicola River are low relative to American shad populations in other southeastern U.S. rivers. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

  1. A new general analytical approach for modeling patterns of genetic differentiation and effective size of subdivided populations over time.

    PubMed

    Hössjer, Ola; Olsson, Fredrik; Laikre, Linda; Ryman, Nils

    2014-12-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to develop a theoretical framework for assessing effective population size and genetic divergence in situations with structured populations that consist of various numbers of more or less interconnected subpopulations. We introduce a general infinite allele model for a diploid, monoecious and subdivided population, with subpopulation sizes varying over time, including local subpopulation extinction and recolonization, bottlenecks, cyclic census size changes or exponential growth. Exact matrix analytic formulas are derived for recursions of predicted (expected) gene identities and gene diversities, identity by descent and coalescence probabilities, and standardized variances of allele frequency change. This enables us to compute and put into a general framework a number of different types of genetically effective population sizes (Ne) including variance, inbreeding, nucleotide diversity, and eigenvalue effective size. General expressions for predictions (gST) of the coefficient of gene differentiation GST are also derived. We suggest that in order to adequately describe important properties of a subdivided population with respect to allele frequency change and maintenance of genetic variation over time, single values of gST and Ne are not enough. Rather, the temporal dynamic patterns of these properties are important to consider. We introduce several schemes for weighting subpopulations that enable effective size and expected genetic divergence to be calculated and described as functions of time, globally for the whole population and locally for any group of subpopulations. The traditional concept of effective size is generalized to situations where genetic drift is confounded by external sources, such as immigration and mutation. Finally, we introduce a general methodology for state space reduction, which greatly decreases the computational complexity of the matrix analytic formulas. PMID:25445736

  2. Impact Crater Size-Frequency Distributions (SFD) on Saturnian Satellites in Comparison with Possible Impactor Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmedemann, Nico; Neukum, Gerhard; Denk, Tilmann; Wagner, Roland; Hartmann, Oliver

    2010-05-01

    One of the major goals of the Cassini imaging experiment (ISS) is the examination of the geologic history of the saturnian satellites [1]. The understanding of the impact crater SFD of the saturnian satellites allows insights of the bombardment history of the early outer solar system. Thus it provides not only information of the geologic development of the target bodies but is also key for the determination of the impactor sources as well. The impact-crater SFD of the mid-sized saturnian satellites has been measured as described by [2]. There are high similarities in the shapes of the asteroid-body SFD around the 3:1 mean motion resonance (MMR) gap with Jupiter and the measured impact crater SFD on the saturnian satellites. This allows for an estimation of the impact-crater scaling. The observationally derived scale factor between the impactor diameter and the respective impact-crater diameter is about three to four in case of Iapetus's larger craters and doesn't change much on other mid-sized saturnian satellites like Rhea or Dione. Hence, by shifting the impact-crater SFD curve of Iapetus to smaller sizes by the amount of the scaling factor of three to four, we get the impactor-body SFD for Iapetus. Thus we can compare the impactor-body SFD of Iapetus with body SFD of possible populations of impacting bodies like Kuiper- Belt objects (KBO), asteroids or the irregular satellites of Saturn. As stated by [3], intensive analyses of the impact crater diameter SFDs of the surfaces of the inner solar system bodies have revealed a characteristic W-shaped curve in the R-plot. The measurements of the crater-diameter SFD on the saturnian satellites Mimas, Tethys, Dione, Rhea, and Iapetus also show high similarities to those W-shaped curves of the inner solar system bodies. The derived body SFD of the asteroid belt (method of abs. magnitude to size conversion by [4]) around the 3:1 MMR with Jupiter gives a very good match to the lunar SFD and thus to the jovian and saturnian

  3. Effective population size does not predict codon usage bias in mammals

    PubMed Central

    Kessler, Michael D; Dean, Matthew D

    2014-01-01

    Synonymous codons are not used at equal frequency throughout the genome, a phenomenon termed codon usage bias (CUB). It is often assumed that interspecific variation in the intensity of CUB is related to species differences in effective population sizes (Ne), with selection on CUB operating less efficiently in species with small Ne. Here, we specifically ask whether variation in Ne predicts differences in CUB in mammals and report two main findings. First, across 41 mammalian genomes, CUB was not correlated with two indirect proxies of Ne (body mass and generation time), even though there was statistically significant evidence of selection shaping CUB across all species. Interestingly, autosomal genes showed higher codon usage bias compared to X-linked genes, and high-recombination genes showed higher codon usage bias compared to low recombination genes, suggesting intraspecific variation in Ne predicts variation in CUB. Second, across six mammalian species with genetic estimates of Ne (human, chimpanzee, rabbit, and three mouse species: Mus musculus, M. domesticus, and M. castaneus), Ne and CUB were weakly and inconsistently correlated. At least in mammals, interspecific divergence in Ne does not strongly predict variation in CUB. One hypothesis is that each species responds to a unique distribution of selection coefficients, confounding any straightforward link between Ne and CUB. PMID:25505518

  4. Digital IIR Filters Design Using Differential Evolution Algorithm with a Controllable Probabilistic Population Size

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Wu; Fang, Jian-an; Tang, Yang; Zhang, Wenbing; Du, Wei

    2012-01-01

    Design of a digital infinite-impulse-response (IIR) filter is the process of synthesizing and implementing a recursive filter network so that a set of prescribed excitations results a set of desired responses. However, the error surface of IIR filters is usually non-linear and multi-modal. In order to find the global minimum indeed, an improved differential evolution (DE) is proposed for digital IIR filter design in this paper. The suggested algorithm is a kind of DE variants with a controllable probabilistic (CPDE) population size. It considers the convergence speed and the computational cost simultaneously by nonperiodic partial increasing or declining individuals according to fitness diversities. In addition, we discuss as well some important aspects for IIR filter design, such as the cost function value, the influence of (noise) perturbations, the convergence rate and successful percentage, the parameter measurement, etc. As to the simulation result, it shows that the presented algorithm is viable and comparable. Compared with six existing State-of-the-Art algorithms-based digital IIR filter design methods obtained by numerical experiments, CPDE is relatively more promising and competitive. PMID:22808191

  5. Effective population size does not predict codon usage bias in mammals.

    PubMed

    Kessler, Michael D; Dean, Matthew D

    2014-10-01

    Synonymous codons are not used at equal frequency throughout the genome, a phenomenon termed codon usage bias (CUB). It is often assumed that interspecific variation in the intensity of CUB is related to species differences in effective population sizes (N e), with selection on CUB operating less efficiently in species with small N e. Here, we specifically ask whether variation in N e predicts differences in CUB in mammals and report two main findings. First, across 41 mammalian genomes, CUB was not correlated with two indirect proxies of N e (body mass and generation time), even though there was statistically significant evidence of selection shaping CUB across all species. Interestingly, autosomal genes showed higher codon usage bias compared to X-linked genes, and high-recombination genes showed higher codon usage bias compared to low recombination genes, suggesting intraspecific variation in N e predicts variation in CUB. Second, across six mammalian species with genetic estimates of N e (human, chimpanzee, rabbit, and three mouse species: Mus musculus, M. domesticus, and M. castaneus), N e and CUB were weakly and inconsistently correlated. At least in mammals, interspecific divergence in N e does not strongly predict variation in CUB. One hypothesis is that each species responds to a unique distribution of selection coefficients, confounding any straightforward link between N e and CUB. PMID:25505518

  6. The size of the irregular migrant population in the European Union – counting the uncountable?

    PubMed

    Vogel, Dita; Kovacheva, Vesela; Prescott, Hannah

    2011-01-01

    It is difficult to estimate the size of the irregular migrant population in a specific city or country, and even more difficult to arrive at estimates at the European level. A review of past attempts at European-level estimates reveals that they rely on rough and outdated rules-of-thumb. In this paper, we present our own European level estimates for 2002, 2005, and 2008. We aggregate country-specific information, aiming at approximate comparability by consistent use of minimum and maximum estimates and by adjusting for obvious differences in definition and timescale. While the aggregated estimates are not considered highly reliable, they do -- for the first time -- provide transparency. The provision of more systematic medium quality estimates is shown to be the most promising way for improvement. The presented estimate indicates a minimum of 1.9 million and a maximum of 3.8 million irregular foreign residents in the 27 member states of the European Union (2008). Unlike rules-of-thumb, the aggregated EU estimates indicate a decline in the number of irregular foreign residents between 2002 and 2008. This decline has been influenced by the EU enlargement and legalisation programmes. PMID:22167866

  7. Preferential enrichment of large-sized very low density lipoprotein populations with transferred cholesteryl esters

    SciTech Connect

    Eisenberg, S.

    1985-04-01

    The effect of lipid transfer proteins on the exchange and transfer of cholesteryl esters from rat plasma HDL2 to human very low (VLDL) and low density (LDL) lipoprotein populations was studied. The use of a combination of radiochemical and chemical methods allowed separate assessment of (/sup 3/H)cholesteryl ester exchange and of cholesteryl ester transfer. VLDL-I was the preferred acceptor for transferred cholesteryl esters, followed by VLDL-II and VLDL-III. LDL did not acquire cholesteryl esters. The contribution of exchange of (/sup 3/H)cholesteryl esters to total transfer was highest for LDL and decreased in reverse order along the VLDL density range. Inactivation of lecithin: cholesterol acyltransferase (LCAT) and heating the HDL2 for 60 min at 56 degrees C accelerated transfer and exchange of (/sup 3/H)cholesteryl esters. Addition of lipid transfer proteins increased cholesterol esterification in all systems. The data demonstrate that large-sized, triglyceride-rich VLDL particles are preferred acceptors for transferred cholesteryl esters. It is suggested that enrichment of very low density lipoproteins with cholesteryl esters reflects the triglyceride content of the particles.

  8. Pond and landscape determinants of Rana dalmatina population sizes in a Romanian rural landscape

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartel, Tibor; Nemes, Szilárd; Cogălniceanu, Dan; Öllerer, Kinga; Moga, Cosmin Ioan; Lesbarrères, David; Demeter, László

    2009-01-01

    Amphibians are good indicators of human impact, declining steadily worldwide. We explored the relationships between the ponds and nearby landscape parameters and population size of the Agile Frog ( Rana dalmatina), estimated from the number of egg masses, in a cultural landscape within the central section of Târnava Mare Basin, Romania. Forty-three permanent ponds were surveyed in a 2600 km 2 area. The average number of egg masses per pond was 211.13 (SD = 426.41). The egg mass number was significantly and positively related to the emergent aquatic macrophyte cover (its effect peaks at around 50%) and the green connecting corridors between the ponds and forests, and negatively related to the extent of nearby urban areas. The proximity of the forest (positive effect) and the presence of high traffic roads (negative effect) were highly correlated with green corridors and further eliminated from the model due to multicollinearity. Both these variables had significant effects when incorporated in univariate models and multivariate models without green corridors. Since a large part of our study area was currently declared as Natura 2000 site, there is an increased need for management proposals and conservation applications for biodiversity, including amphibians. Rana dalmatina is an important species for monitoring because it is common in the studied area and is suited for short surveys.

  9. The Repopulation Potential of Hepatocyte Populations Differing in Size and Prior Mitotic Expansion

    PubMed Central

    Overturf, Ken; Al-Dhalimy, Muhsen; Finegold, Milton; Grompe, Markus

    1999-01-01

    Recently the stem cell-like regenerative potential of adult liver cells was demonstrated by serial transplantation. This repopulation capacity could be useful for the treatment of genetic liver diseases by cell transplantation and/or expansion of genetically manipulated cells. However, previous experiments used unfractionated populations of liver cells, and therefore it remained undetermined whether all hepatocytes or only a subpopulation (stem cells) possessed this high regenerative ability. To address this question we used centrifugal elutriation to separate hepatocytes by cell density. Unexpectedly, small hepatocytes (16 μm) had lower repopulation capacity during the first round of transplantation when compared with both the medium-sized (21 μm) and large (27 μm) cells. We also compared the repopulation capacity of hepatocytes that had undergone different degrees of in vivo expansion. Previous cell division neither reduced nor increased the repopulation capacity of transplanted liver cells. Finally, retroviral tagging experiments demonstrated that liver-repopulating cells occur at a frequency of >1:10,000. We conclude that short-term therapeutic liver repopulation does not require progenitor or stem cells. PMID:10595942

  10. Examining the role of effective population size on mitochondrial and multilocus divergence time discordance in a songbird.

    PubMed

    Smith, Brian Tilston; Klicka, John

    2013-01-01

    Estimates of speciation times are subject to a number of potential errors. One source of bias is that effective population size (Ne) has been shown to influence substitution rates. This issue is of particular interest for phylogeographic studies because population sizes can vary dramatically among genetically structured populations across species' ranges. In this study, we used multilocus data to examine temporal phylogeographic patterns in a widespread North American songbird, the Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis). Species tree estimation indicated that the phylogeographic structure of C. cardinalis was comprised of four well-supported mainland lineages with large population sizes (large Ne) and two island lineages comprised of much smaller populations (small Ne). We inferred speciation times from mtDNA and multilocus data and found there was discordance between events that represented island-mainland divergences, whereas both estimates were similar for divergences among mainland lineages. We performed coalescent simulations and found that the difference in speciation times could be attributed to stochasticity for a recently diverged island lineage. However, the magnitude of the change between speciation times estimated from mtDNA and multilocus data of an older island lineage was substantially greater than predicted by coalescent simulations. For this divergence, we found the discordance in time estimates was due to a substantial increase in the mtDNA substitution rate in the small island population. These findings indicate that in phylogeographic studies the relative tempo of evolution between mtDNA and nuclear DNA can become highly discordant in small populations. PMID:23457463

  11. Critical and Demographic Effective Population Size of African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in Borgu Sector of Kainji Lake National Park, Nigeria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aremu, O. T.; Onadeko, S. A.; Ola-Adams, B. A.; Inah, E. I.

    Effective population size of African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) was estimated using Franklin and Frankham model. Buffalo relative abundance was calculated using a 4x4 km transect constructed in each of the identified six vegetation communities in the Park, which were traversed once a month for a period of 24 months. The results revealed that the relative abundance of Buffalo in the Park was 0.372±0.03 groups km-2 consisting of 51±5.827 groups representing 242±16.309 individuals which consist of 30 adult males and 70 adult females representing 12.40 and 28.93%, respectively of the total Buffalo population in the Park which was considered to be the effective breeding population size. The composition of the population structure was significantly different (p< 0.05). The effective population size of Buffalo in the Park was estimated to be 581.34±4.91 which was above the recommended value of 100 which shows that the Buffalo population in the Park was not threatened by demographic stochasticity factors but rather by illegal human activities in the Park. Measures to improve conservation and management of the existing Buffalo population in the Park are also discussed.

  12. Community- and population-level changes in diatom size structure in a subarctic lake over the last two centuries

    PubMed Central

    Kerrigan, Elizabeth A.; Irwin, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change over the last two centuries has been associated with significant shifts in diatom community structure in lakes from the high arctic to temperate latitudes. To test the hypotheses that recent climate warming selects for species of smaller size within communities and a decrease in the average size of species within populations, we quantified the size of individual diatom valves from 10 depths in a sediment core covering the last ∼200 years from a pristine subarctic lake. Over the last ∼200 years, changes in the relative abundance of species of different average size and changes in the average valve size of populations of species contribute equally to the changes in community size structure, but are often opposite in sign, compensating for one another and moderating temporal changes in community size structure. In the surface sediments that correspond to the recent decades when air temperatures have warmed, the mean size of valves in the diatom community has significantly decreased due to an increase in the proportion of smaller-sized planktonic diatom species. PMID:26157637

  13. Estimating the size of key populations at higher risk of HIV infection: a summary of experiences and lessons presented during a technical meeting on size estimation among key populations in Asian countries

    PubMed Central

    Calleja, Jesus Maria Garcia; Zhao, Jinkou; Reddy, Amala; Seguy, Nicole

    2014-01-01

    Problem Size estimates of key populations at higher risk of HIV exposure are recognized as critical for understanding the trajectory of the HIV epidemic and planning and monitoring an effective response, especially for countries with concentrated and low epidemics such as those in Asia. Context To help countries estimate population sizes of key populations, global guidelines were updated in 2011 to reflect new technical developments and recent field experiences in applying these methods. Action In September 2013, a meeting of programme managers and experts experienced with population size estimates (PSE) for key populations was held for 13 Asian countries. This article summarizes the key results presented, shares practical lessons learnt and reviews the methodological approaches from implementing PSE in 13 countries. Lessons learnt It is important to build capacity to collect, analyse and use PSE data; establish a technical review group; and implement a transparent, well documented process. Countries should adapt global PSE guidelines and maintain operational definitions that are more relevant and useable for country programmes. Development of methods for non-venue-based key populations requires more investment and collaborative efforts between countries and among partners. PMID:25320676

  14. Size and demography pattern of the domestic dog population in Bhutan: Implications for dog population management and disease control.

    PubMed

    Rinzin, Karma; Tenzin, Tenzin; Robertson, Ian

    2016-04-01

    Understanding the demography of domestic dogs is essential to plan the dog population management and rabies control program. In this study, we estimated the owned and stray dog population and the proportion of owned dogs that are free-roaming in Bhutan. For this, a cross-sectional household surveys were conducted in six districts (both urban and rural areas) and two border towns in southern Bhutan. The population estimation was done by extrapolation of the mean number of dogs per household and dogs per person, whilst mark-resight survey was conducted to estimate the proportion of owned dogs that were free-roaming. A total of 1,301 (rural:585; urban:716) respondents (one per household) were interviewed of which 173 households (24.4%) in urban areas owned 237 dogs whilst 238 households (40.8%) in rural areas owned 353 dogs. The mean number of dogs per dog owning household was estimated to be 1.44 (urban:1.37 dogs; rural:1.48 dogs) and dogs per household was estimated to be 0.45 (urban:0.33; rural:0.60). The dog: human ratio was 1:16.30 (0.06 dogs per person) in urban areas and 1:8.43 (0.12 dogs per person) in rural areas. The total owned dog population based on the mean number of dogs per household and dogs per person were estimated to be 65,312 and 71,245 in the country, respectively. The male: female ratio of the owned dog was 1.31:1 in urban areas and 2.05:1 in rural areas. Majority of the dogs were local non-descript breeds in both urban (60.8%) and rural (78%) areas, and the most common source was acquisition from friends or family (44.7%). The stray dog population in Bhutan was estimated to be 48,379 (urban:22,772; rural:25,607). Of the total estimated owned dog population in the two border towns, the proportion that were found free-roaming was estimated to be 31%. The different dog population estimation methods were compared and discussed in this paper. This study generated baseline data on the demographic patterns of the owned and stray dogs in Bhutan which

  15. T cell receptor cross-reactivity between similar foreign and self peptides influences naive cell population size and autoimmunity.

    PubMed

    Nelson, Ryan W; Beisang, Daniel; Tubo, Noah J; Dileepan, Thamotharampillai; Wiesner, Darin L; Nielsen, Kirsten; Wüthrich, Marcel; Klein, Bruce S; Kotov, Dmitri I; Spanier, Justin A; Fife, Brian T; Moon, James J; Jenkins, Marc K

    2015-01-20

    T cell receptor (TCR) cross-reactivity between major histocompatibility complex II (MHCII)-binding self and foreign peptides could influence the naive CD4(+) T cell repertoire and autoimmunity. We found that nonamer peptides that bind to the same MHCII molecule only need to share five amino acids to cross-react on the same TCR. This property was biologically relevant because systemic expression of a self peptide reduced the size of a naive cell population specific for a related foreign peptide by deletion of cells with cross-reactive TCRs. Reciprocally, an incompletely deleted naive T cell population specific for a tissue-restricted self peptide could be triggered by related microbial peptides to cause autoimmunity. Thus, TCR cross-reactivity between similar self and foreign peptides can reduce the size of certain foreign peptide-specific T cell populations and might allow T cell populations specific for tissue-restricted self peptides to cause autoimmunity after infection. PMID:25601203

  16. A multi-scale study of Orthoptera species richness and human population size controlling for sampling effort

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cantarello, Elena; Steck, Claude E.; Fontana, Paolo; Fontaneto, Diego; Marini, Lorenzo; Pautasso, Marco

    2010-03-01

    Recent large-scale studies have shown that biodiversity-rich regions also tend to be densely populated areas. The most obvious explanation is that biodiversity and human beings tend to match the distribution of energy availability, environmental stability and/or habitat heterogeneity. However, the species-people correlation can also be an artefact, as more populated regions could show more species because of a more thorough sampling. Few studies have tested this sampling bias hypothesis. Using a newly collated dataset, we studied whether Orthoptera species richness is related to human population size in Italy’s regions (average area 15,000 km2) and provinces (2,900 km2). As expected, the observed number of species increases significantly with increasing human population size for both grain sizes, although the proportion of variance explained is minimal at the provincial level. However, variations in observed Orthoptera species richness are primarily associated with the available number of records, which is in turn well correlated with human population size (at least at the regional level). Estimated Orthoptera species richness (Chao2 and Jackknife) also increases with human population size both for regions and provinces. Both for regions and provinces, this increase is not significant when controlling for variation in area and number of records. Our study confirms the hypothesis that broad-scale human population-biodiversity correlations can in some cases be artefactual. More systematic sampling of less studied taxa such as invertebrates is necessary to ascertain whether biogeographical patterns persist when sampling effort is kept constant or included in models.

  17. Estimation of hominoid ancestral population sizes under bayesian coalescent models incorporating mutation rate variation and sequencing errors.

    PubMed

    Burgess, Ralph; Yang, Ziheng

    2008-09-01

    Estimation of population parameters for the common ancestors of humans and the great apes is important in understanding our evolutionary history. In particular, inference of population size for the human-chimpanzee common ancestor may shed light on the process by which the 2 species separated and on whether the human population experienced a severe size reduction in its early evolutionary history. In this study, the Bayesian method of ancestral inference of Rannala and Yang (2003. Bayes estimation of species divergence times and ancestral population sizes using DNA sequences from multiple loci. Genetics. 164:1645-1656) was extended to accommodate variable mutation rates among loci and random species-specific sequencing errors. The model was applied to analyze a genome-wide data set of approximately 15,000 neutral loci (7.4 Mb) aligned for human, chimpanzee, gorilla, orangutan, and macaque. We obtained robust and precise estimates for effective population sizes along the hominoid lineage extending back approximately 30 Myr to the cercopithecoid divergence. The results showed that ancestral populations were 5-10 times larger than modern humans along the entire hominoid lineage. The estimates were robust to the priors used and to model assumptions about recombination. The unusually low X chromosome divergence between human and chimpanzee could not be explained by variation in the male mutation bias or by current models of hybridization and introgression. Instead, our parameter estimates were consistent with a simple instantaneous process for human-chimpanzee speciation but showed a major reduction in X chromosome effective population size peculiar to the human-chimpanzee common ancestor, possibly due to selective sweeps on the X prior to separation of the 2 species. PMID:18603620

  18. Interspecific hybridization contributes to high genetic diversity and apparent effective population size in an endemic population of mottled ducks (Anas fulvigula maculosa)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peters, Jeffrey L.; Sonsthagen, Sarah A.; Lavretsky, Philip; Rezsutek, Michael; Johnson, William P.; McCracken, Kevin G.

    2014-01-01

    Under drift-mutation equilibrium, genetic diversity is expected to be correlated with effective population size (Ne). Changes in population size and gene flow are two important processes that can cause populations to deviate from this expected relationship. In this study, we used DNA sequences from six independent loci to examine the influence of these processes on standing genetic diversity in endemic mottled ducks (Anas fulvigula) and geographically widespread mallards (A. platyrhynchos), two species known to hybridize. Mottled ducks have an estimated census size that is about two orders-of-magnitude smaller than that of mallards, yet these two species have similar levels of genetic diversity, especially at nuclear DNA. Coalescent analyses suggest that a population expansion in the mallard at least partly explains this discrepancy, but the mottled duck harbors higher genetic diversity and apparent N e than expected for its census size even after accounting for a population decline. Incorporating gene flow into the model, however, reduced the estimated Ne of mottled ducks to 33 % of the equilibrium Ne and yielded an estimated Ne consistent with census size. We also examined the utility of these loci to distinguish among mallards, mottled ducks, and their hybrids. Most putatively pure individuals were correctly assigned to species, but the power for detecting hybrids was low. Although hybridization with mallards potentially poses a conservation threat to mottled ducks by creating a risk of extinction by hybridization, introgression of mallard alleles has helped maintain high genetic diversity in mottled ducks and might be important for the adaptability and survival of this species.

  19. Population Structure, Genetic Diversity, Effective Population Size, Demographic History and Regional Connectivity Patterns of the Endangered Dusky Grouper, Epinephelus marginatus (Teleostei: Serranidae), within Malta's Fisheries Management Zone.

    PubMed

    Buchholz-Sørensen, Molly; Vella, Adriana

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study is to describe the genetic population structure and demographic history of the endangered marine fish, Epinephelus marginatus, within Malta's Fisheries Management Zone for the purpose of localised conservation planning. Epinephelus marginatus is a long-lived, sedentary, reef-associated protogynous hermaphrodite with high commercial and recreational value that is at risk of extinction throughout its global distribution. Based on global trends, population substructuring and gaps in local knowledge this has led to an increased interest in evaluation of local stock. Assessment of Maltese demography was based on historical and contemporary catch landings data whilst genetic population structure and regional connectivity patterns were evaluated by examining 175 individuals collected within the central Mediterranean region between 2002 and 2009 using 14 nuclear microsatellite loci. Demographic stock assessment of Maltese E. marginatus' revealed a 99% decline in catch landings between 1947 and 2009 within the Fisheries Management Zone. A contemporary modest mean size was observed, 3 ± 3 kg, where approximately 17% of the population was juvenile, 68% female/sex-changing and 15% were male with a male-to-female sex ratio of 1:5. Genetic analysis describes the overall population of E. marginatus' within the Fisheries Management Zone as decreasing in size (ƟH = 2.2), which has gone through a significant size reduction in the past (M = 0.41) and consequently shows signs of moderate inbreeding (FIS = 0.10, p < 0.001) with an estimated effective population size of 130 individuals. Results of spatially explicit Bayesian genetic cluster analysis detected two geographically distinct subpopulations within Malta's Fisheries Management Zone and that they are connected to a larger network of E. marginatus' within the Sicily Channel. Results suggest conservation management should be designed to reflect E. marginatus' within Malta's Fisheries Management Zone

  20. Potential environmental influences on variation in body size and sexual size dimorphism among Arizona populations of the western diamond-backed rattlesnake (Crotalus atrox)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amarello, M.; Nowak, E.M.; Taylor, E.N.; Schuett, G.W.; Repp, R.A.; Rosen, P.C.; Hardy, D.L.

    2010-01-01

    Differences in resource availability and quality along environmental gradients are important influences contributing to intraspecific variation in body size, which influences numerous life-history traits. Here, we examined variation in body size and sexual size dimorphism (SSD) in relation to temperature, seasonality, and precipitation among 10 populations located throughout Arizona of the western diamond-backed rattlesnake (Crotalus atrox). Specifically, in our analyses we addressed the following questions: (i) Are adult males larger in cooler, wetter areas? (ii) Does female body size respond differently to environmental variation? (iii) Is seasonality a better predictor of body size variation? (iv) Is SSD positively correlated with increased resources? We demonstrate that male and female C. atrox are larger in body size in cooler (i.e., lower average annual maximum, minimum, and mean temperature) and wetter areas (i.e., higher average annual precipitation, more variable precipitation, and available surface water). Although SSD in C. atrox appeared to be more pronounced in cooler, wetter areas, this relationship did not achieve statistical significance. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  1. Distance software: design and analysis of distance sampling surveys for estimating population size

    PubMed Central

    Thomas, Len; Buckland, Stephen T; Rexstad, Eric A; Laake, Jeff L; Strindberg, Samantha; Hedley, Sharon L; Bishop, Jon RB; Marques, Tiago A; Burnham, Kenneth P

    2010-01-01

    1.Distance sampling is a widely used technique for estimating the size or density of biological populations. Many distance sampling designs and most analyses use the software Distance. 2.We briefly review distance sampling and its assumptions, outline the history, structure and capabilities of Distance, and provide hints on its use. 3.Good survey design is a crucial prerequisite for obtaining reliable results. Distance has a survey design engine, with a built-in geographic information system, that allows properties of different proposed designs to be examined via simulation, and survey plans to be generated. 4.A first step in analysis of distance sampling data is modelling the probability of detection. Distance contains three increasingly sophisticated analysis engines for this: conventional distance sampling, which models detection probability as a function of distance from the transect and assumes all objects at zero distance are detected; multiple-covariate distance sampling, which allows covariates in addition to distance; and mark–recapture distance sampling, which relaxes the assumption of certain detection at zero distance. 5.All three engines allow estimation of density or abundance, stratified if required, with associated measures of precision calculated either analytically or via the bootstrap. 6.Advanced analysis topics covered include the use of multipliers to allow analysis of indirect surveys (such as dung or nest surveys), the density surface modelling analysis engine for spatial and habitat modelling, and information about accessing the analysis engines directly from other software. 7.Synthesis and applications. Distance sampling is a key method for producing abundance and density estimates in challenging field conditions. The theory underlying the methods continues to expand to cope with realistic estimation situations. In step with theoretical developments, state-of-the-art software that implements these methods is described that makes the

  2. Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Flint, Paul L.

    2013-01-01

    Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

  3. Climate-induced changes to the ancestral population size of two Patagonian galaxiids: the influence of glacial cycling.

    PubMed

    Zemlak, Tyler S; Walde, Sandra J; Habit, Evelyn M; Ruzzante, Daniel E

    2011-12-01

    Patagonia is one of the few areas in the Southern Hemisphere to have been directly influenced by Quaternary glaciers. In this study, we evaluate the influence that Quaternary glacial ice had on the genetic diversity of two congeneric fish species, the diadromous Galaxias maculatus and the nondiadromous Galaxias platei, using multilocus estimates of effective population size through time. Mid-Quaternary glaciations had far-reaching consequences for both species. Galaxias maculatus and G. platei each experienced severe genetic bottlenecks during the period when Patagonia ice sheet advance reached its maximum positions c. 1.1-0.6 Ma. Concordant drops in effective size during this time suggest that range sizes were under similar constraints. It is therefore unlikely that coastal (brackish/marine) environments served as a significant refuge for G. maculatus during glacial periods. An earlier onset of population declines for G. platei suggests that this species was vulnerable to modest glacial advances. Declines in effective sizes were continuous for both species and lasted into the late-Pleistocene. However, G. maculatus exhibited a strong population recovery during the late-Quaternary (c. 400,000 bp). Unusually long and warm interglacials associated with the late-Quaternary may have helped to facilitate a strong population rebound in this primarily coastal species. PMID:22077139

  4. Isolation Distance, Inflorescence Sampling, and Population Size: Maintaining Genetic Diversity in the U.S. Temperate Grass Germplasm Collection

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    During the regeneration of cross-pollinating accessions, genetic contamination from foreign pollen and reduction of the effective population size can be a hindrance to maintaining the genetic diversity in the temperate grass collection at the Western Regional Plant Introduction Station (WRPIS). The...

  5. A Classroom Investigation of the Effect of Population Size and Income on Success in the London 2012 Olympics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Nancy; Felton, Nathan; Schwertman, Neil

    2014-01-01

    Engaging students in active learning can enhance their understanding and appreciation of a subject such as statistics. Classroom activities and projects help to engage students and further promote the learning process. In this paper, an activity investigating the influence of population size and wealth on the medal counts from the 2012 London…

  6. Assessment of parental contribution and effective population size from a 3×3 diallel cross of clam Meretrix meretrix

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Ping; Wang, Hongxia; Liu, Baozhong

    2014-03-01

    Unbalanced parental contribution and small effective population size ( N e) are common issues during the artificial breeding of marine bivalves. The impact of hatchery-spawning practices on parental contribution, effective population size, the N e/ N ratio, and genetic diversity are largely unknown. To address this, we conducted a parentage analysis on a complete 3×3 diallel cross of clam M eretrix meretrix using eight microsatellite markers. The genetic diversity of the parents was higher than that of their respective offspring in most crosses (8/9). Sires or dams from the same family contributed unequally to the pool of offspring from a particular cross, and the same parent clam exhibited large variation in parental contribution among different crosses. The variance in male contribution was higher than that of the female contribution in most crosses, suggesting that male contribution was more skewed than for females. The N e/ N ratio for nine crosses ranged from 0.58 to 0.86. There was no linear relationship between the sex ratio and the N e/ N ratio ( P > 0.05). Moreover, a sex ratio closer to one-to-one does not necessarily mean a larger effective population size. A solution to small effective population size in commercial breeding programs is increasing broodstock numbers and attempting to maintain a balanced sex ratio.

  7. A possible explanation for the population size discrepancy in tuna (genus Thunnus) estimated from mitochondrial DNA and microsatellite data.

    PubMed

    Qiu, Fan; Kitchen, Andrew; Beerli, Peter; Miyamoto, Michael M

    2013-02-01

    A recent study using both mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and microsatellite data reported on a population size discrepancy in the eastern tiger salamander where the effective population size (N(e)) estimate of the former exceeded that of the latter. That study suggested, among other hypotheses, that homoplasy of microsatellite alleles is responsible for the discrepancy. In this investigation, we report 10 new cases of a similar discrepancy in five species of tuna. These cases derive from our Bayesian inferences using data from Pacific Bluefin Tuna (Thunnus orientalis) and Yellowfin Tuna (Thunnus albacares), as well as from published estimates of genetic diversity for additional populations of Yellowfin Tuna and three other tuna species. Phylogenetic character analyses of inferred genealogies of Pacific Bluefin and Yellowfin Tuna reveal similar reduced levels of mtDNA and microsatellite homoplasy. Thus, the discrepancy between inferred population sizes from mtDNA and microsatellite data in tuna is most likely not an artifact of the chosen mutation models used in the microsatellite analyses, but may reflect behavioral differences between the sexes such as female-biased philopatry and male-biased dispersal. This explanation now warrants critical testing with more local populations of tuna and with other animal and plant groups that have different life histories. PMID:22579759

  8. Selection and Reduced Population Size Cannot Explain Higher Amounts of Neandertal Ancestry in East Asian than in European Human Populations

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Bernard Y.; Lohmueller, Kirk E.

    2015-01-01

    It has been hypothesized that the greater proportion of Neandertal ancestry in East Asians than in Europeans is due to the fact that purifying selection is less effective at removing weakly deleterious Neandertal alleles from East Asian populations. Using simulations of a broad range of models of selection and demography, we have shown that this hypothesis cannot account for the higher proportion of Neandertal ancestry in East Asians than in Europeans. Instead, more complex demographic scenarios, most likely involving multiple pulses of Neandertal admixture, are required to explain the data. PMID:25683122

  9. Estimating the Sizes of Populations At Risk of HIV Infection From Multiple Data Sources Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model

    PubMed Central

    Bao, Le; Raftery, Adrian E.; Reddy, Amala

    2014-01-01

    In most countries in the world outside of sub-Saharan Africa, HIV is largely concentrated in sub-populations whose behavior puts them at higher risk of contracting and transmitting HIV, such as people who inject drugs, sex workers and men who have sex with men. Estimating the size of these sub-populations is important for assessing overall HIV prevalence and designing effective interventions. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for estimating the sizes of local and national HIV key affected populations. The model incorporates multiple commonly used data sources including mapping data, surveys, interventions, capture-recapture data, estimates or guesstimates from organizations, and expert opinion. The proposed model is used to estimate the numbers of people who inject drugs in Bangladesh. PMID:26015851

  10. On the Effective Size of Populations with Separate Sexes, with Particular Reference to Sex-Linked Genes

    PubMed Central

    Caballero, A.

    1995-01-01

    Inconsistencies between equations for the effective population size of populations with separate sexes obtained by two different approaches are explained. One approach, which is the most common in the literature, is based on the assumption that the sex of the progeny cannot be identified. The second approach incorporates identification of the sexes of both parents and offspring. The approaches lead to identical expressions for effective size under some situations, such as Poisson distributions of offspring numbers. In general, however, the first approach gives incorrect answers, which become particularly severe for sex-linked genes, because then only numbers of daughters of males are relevant. Predictions of the effective size for sex-linked genes are illustrated for different systems of mating. PMID:7713404

  11. The impact of Quaternary climate oscillations on divergence times and historical population sizes in Thylamys opossums from the Andes.

    PubMed

    Giarla, Thomas C; Jansa, Sharon A

    2015-05-01

    Climate oscillations during the Quaternary altered the distributions of terrestrial animals at a global scale. In mountainous regions, temperature fluctuations may have led to shifts in range size and population size as species tracked their shifting habitats upslope or downslope. This creates the potential for both allopatric speciation and population size fluctuations, as species are either constrained to smaller patches of habitat at higher elevations or able to expand into broader areas at higher latitudes. We considered the impact of climate oscillations on three pairs of marsupial species from the Andes (Thylamys opossums) by inferring divergence times and demographic changes. We compare four different divergence dating approaches, using anywhere from one to 26 loci. Each pair comprises a northern (tropical) lineage and a southern (subtropical to temperate) lineage. We predicted that divergences would have occurred during the last interglacial (LIG) period approximately 125 000 years ago and that population sizes for northern and southern lineages would either contract or expand, respectively. Our results suggest that all three north-south pairs diverged in the late Pleistocene during or slightly after the LIG. The three northern lineages showed no signs of population expansion, whereas two southern lineages exhibited dramatic, recent expansions. We attribute the difference in responses between tropical and subtropical lineages to the availability of 'montane-like' habitats at lower elevations in regions at higher latitudes. We conclude that climate oscillations of the late Quaternary had a powerful impact on the evolutionary history of some of these species, both promoting speciation and leading to significant population size shifts. PMID:25809909

  12. Floral display size, conspecific density and florivory affect fruit set in natural populations of Phlox hirsuta, an endangered species

    PubMed Central

    Ruane, Lauren G.; Rotzin, Andrew T.; Congleton, Philip H.

    2014-01-01

    Background and Aims Natural variation in fruit and seed set may be explained by factors that affect the composition of pollen grains on stigmas. Self-incompatible species require compatible outcross pollen grains to produce seeds. The siring success of outcross pollen grains, however, can be hindered if self (or other incompatible) pollen grains co-occur on stigmas. This study identifies factors that determine fruit set in Phlox hirsuta, a self-sterile endangered species that is prone to self-pollination, and its associated fitness costs. Methods Multiple linear regressions were used to identify factors that explain variation in percentage fruit set within three of the five known populations of this endangered species. Florivorous beetle density, petal colour, floral display size, local conspecific density and pre-dispersal seed predation were quantified and their effects on the ability of flowers to produce fruits were assessed. Key Results In all three populations, percentage fruit set decreased as florivorous beetle density increased and as floral display size increased. The effect of floral display size on fruit set, however, often depended on the density of nearby conspecific plants. High local conspecific densities offset – even reversed – the negative effects of floral display size on percentage fruit set. Seed predation by mammals decreased fruit set in one population. Conclusions The results indicate that seed production in P. hirsuta can be maximized by selectively augmenting populations in areas containing isolated large plants, by reducing the population sizes of florivorous beetles and by excluding mammals that consume unripe fruits. PMID:24557879

  13. Developing accurate survey methods for estimating population sizes and trends of the critically endangered Nihoa Millerbird and Nihoa Finch.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gorresen, P. Marcos; Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Farmer, Chris

    2012-01-01

    Point-transect surveys indicated that millerbirds were more abundant than shown by the striptransect method, and were estimated at 802 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 652 – 964) and 704 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 579 – 837). Point-transect surveys yielded population estimates with improved precision which will permit trends to be detected in shorter time periods and with greater statistical power than is available from strip-transect survey methods. Mean finch population estimates and associated uncertainty were not markedly different among the three survey methods, but the performance of models used to estimate density and population size are expected to improve as the data from additional surveys are incorporated. Using the pointtransect survey, the mean finch population size was estimated at 2,917 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 2,037 – 3,965) and 2,461 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 1,682 – 3,348). Preliminary testing of the line-transect method in 2011 showed that it would not generate sufficient detections to effectively model bird density, and consequently, relatively precise population size estimates. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and appear to occur in all or nearly all available habitat. The time expended and area traversed by observers was similar among survey methods; however, point-transect surveys do not require that observers walk a straight transect line, thereby allowing them to avoid culturally or biologically sensitive areas and minimize the adverse effects of recurrent travel to any particular area. In general, pointtransect surveys detect more birds than strip-survey methods, thereby improving precision and resulting population size and trend estimation. The method is also better suited for the steep and uneven terrain of Nihoa

  14. The effect of Wolbachia-induced cytoplasmic incompatibility on host population size in natural and manipulated systems.

    PubMed

    Dobson, Stephen L; Fox, Charles W; Jiggins, Francis M

    2002-03-01

    Obligate, intracellular bacteria of the genus Wolbachia often behave as reproductive parasites by manipulating host reproduction to enhance their vertical transmission. One of these reproductive manipulations, cytoplasmic incompatibility, causes a reduction in egg-hatch rate in crosses between individuals with differing infections. Applied strategies based upon cytoplasmic incompatibility have been proposed for both the suppression and replacement of host populations. As Wolbachia infections occur within a broad range of invertebrates, these strategies are potentially applicable to a variety of medically and economically important insects. Here, we examine the interaction between Wolbachia infection frequency and host population size. We use a model to describe natural invasions of Wolbachia infections, artificial releases of infected hosts and releases of sterile males, as part of a traditional sterile insect technique programme. Model simulations demonstrate the importance of understanding the reproductive rate and intraspecific competition type of the targeted population, showing that releases of sterile or incompatible individuals may cause an undesired increase in the adult number. In addition, the model suggests a novel applied strategy that employs Wolbachia infections to suppress host populations. Releases of Wolbachia-infected hosts can be used to sustain artificially an unstable coexistence of multiple incompatible infections within a host population, allowing the host population size to be reduced, maintained at low levels, or eliminated. PMID:11886634

  15. Impact of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill on population size and genetic structure of horse flies in Louisiana marshes

    PubMed Central

    Husseneder, Claudia; Donaldson, Jennifer R.; Foil, Lane D.

    2016-01-01

    The greenhead horse fly, Tabanus nigrovittatus Macquart, is frequently found in coastal marshes of the Eastern United States. The greenhead horse fly larvae are top predators in the marsh and thus vulnerable to changes in the environment, and the adults potentially are attracted to polarized surfaces like oil. Therefore, horse fly populations could serve as bioindicators of marsh health and toxic effects of oil intrusion. In this study, we describe the impact of the April 2010 Deep Water Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico on tabanid population abundance and genetics as well as mating structure. Horse fly populations were sampled biweekly from oiled and unaffected locations immediately after the oil spill in June 2010 until October 2011. Horse fly abundance estimates showed severe crashes of tabanid populations in oiled areas. Microsatellite genotyping of six pristine and seven oiled populations at ten polymorphic loci detected genetic bottlenecks in six of the oiled populations in association with fewer breeding parents, reduced effective population size, lower number of family clusters and fewer migrants among populations. This is the first study assessing the impact of oil contamination at the level of a top arthropod predator of the invertebrate community in salt marshes. PMID:26755069

  16. Impact of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill on population size and genetic structure of horse flies in Louisiana marshes.

    PubMed

    Husseneder, Claudia; Donaldson, Jennifer R; Foil, Lane D

    2016-01-01

    The greenhead horse fly, Tabanus nigrovittatus Macquart, is frequently found in coastal marshes of the Eastern United States. The greenhead horse fly larvae are top predators in the marsh and thus vulnerable to changes in the environment, and the adults potentially are attracted to polarized surfaces like oil. Therefore, horse fly populations could serve as bioindicators of marsh health and toxic effects of oil intrusion. In this study, we describe the impact of the April 2010 Deep Water Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico on tabanid population abundance and genetics as well as mating structure. Horse fly populations were sampled biweekly from oiled and unaffected locations immediately after the oil spill in June 2010 until October 2011. Horse fly abundance estimates showed severe crashes of tabanid populations in oiled areas. Microsatellite genotyping of six pristine and seven oiled populations at ten polymorphic loci detected genetic bottlenecks in six of the oiled populations in association with fewer breeding parents, reduced effective population size, lower number of family clusters and fewer migrants among populations. This is the first study assessing the impact of oil contamination at the level of a top arthropod predator of the invertebrate community in salt marshes. PMID:26755069

  17. Wildlife population trends in protected areas predicted by national socio-economic metrics and body size.

    PubMed

    Barnes, Megan D; Craigie, Ian D; Harrison, Luke B; Geldmann, Jonas; Collen, Ben; Whitmee, Sarah; Balmford, Andrew; Burgess, Neil D; Brooks, Thomas; Hockings, Marc; Woodley, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    Ensuring that protected areas (PAs) maintain the biodiversity within their boundaries is fundamental in achieving global conservation goals. Despite this objective, wildlife abundance changes in PAs are patchily documented and poorly understood. Here, we use linear mixed effect models to explore correlates of population change in 1,902 populations of birds and mammals from 447 PAs globally. On an average, we find PAs are maintaining populations of monitored birds and mammals within their boundaries. Wildlife population trends are more positive in PAs located in countries with higher development scores, and for larger-bodied species. These results suggest that active management can consistently overcome disadvantages of lower reproductive rates and more severe threats experienced by larger species of birds and mammals. The link between wildlife trends and national development shows that the social and economic conditions supporting PAs are critical for the successful maintenance of their wildlife populations. PMID:27582180

  18. Inferring human population size and separation history from multiple genome sequences

    PubMed Central

    Schiffels, Stephan; Durbin, Richard

    2014-01-01

    The availability of complete human genome sequences from populations across the world has given rise to new population genetic inference methods that explicitly model their ancestral relationship under recombination and mutation. So far, application of these methods to evolutionary history more recent than 20-30 thousand years ago and to population separations has been limited. Here we present a new method that overcomes these shortcomings. The Multiple Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (MSMC) analyses the observed pattern of mutations in multiple individuals, focusing on the first coalescence between any two individuals. Results from applying MSMC to genome sequences from nine populations across the world suggest that the genetic separation of non-African ancestors from African Yoruban ancestors started long before 50,000 years ago, and give information about human population history as recently as 2,000 years ago, including the bottleneck in the peopling of the Americas, and separations within Africa, East Asia and Europe. PMID:24952747

  19. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    PubMed Central

    Russell, Tanya L.; Lwetoijera, Dickson W.; Knols, Bart G. J.; Takken, Willem; Killeen, Gerry F.; Ferguson, Heather M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in phenotypic traits predict the dynamics of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes, the most important vectors of human malaria. Anopheles gambiae dynamics were monitored over a six-month period of seasonal growth and decline. The population exhibited density-dependent feedback, with the carrying capacity being modified by rainfall (97% wAICc support). The individual phenotypic expression of the maternal (p = 0.0001) and current (p = 0.040) body size positively influenced population growth. Our field-based evidence uniquely demonstrates that individual fitness can have population-level impacts and, furthermore, can mitigate the impact of exogenous drivers (e.g. rainfall) in species whose reproduction depends upon it. Once frontline interventions have suppressed mosquito densities, attempts to eliminate malaria with supplementary vector control tools may be attenuated by increased population growth and individual fitness. PMID:21389034

  20. Hierarchical distance-sampling models to estimate population size and habitat-specific abundance of an island endemic

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sillett, Scott T.; Chandler, Richard B.; Royle, J. Andrew; Kéry, Marc; Morrison, Scott A.

    2012-01-01

    Population size and habitat-specific abundance estimates are essential for conservation management. A major impediment to obtaining such estimates is that few statistical models are able to simultaneously account for both spatial variation in abundance and heterogeneity in detection probability, and still be amenable to large-scale applications. The hierarchical distance-sampling model of J. A. Royle, D. K. Dawson, and S. Bates provides a practical solution. Here, we extend this model to estimate habitat-specific abundance and rangewide population size of a bird species of management concern, the Island Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma insularis), which occurs solely on Santa Cruz Island, California, USA. We surveyed 307 randomly selected, 300 m diameter, point locations throughout the 250-km2 island during October 2008 and April 2009. Population size was estimated to be 2267 (95% CI 1613-3007) and 1705 (1212-2369) during the fall and spring respectively, considerably lower than a previously published but statistically problematic estimate of 12 500. This large discrepancy emphasizes the importance of proper survey design and analysis for obtaining reliable information for management decisions. Jays were most abundant in low-elevation chaparral habitat; the detection function depended primarily on the percent cover of chaparral and forest within count circles. Vegetation change on the island has been dramatic in recent decades, due to release from herbivory following the eradication of feral sheep (Ovis aries) from the majority of the island in the mid-1980s. We applied best-fit fall and spring models of habitat-specific jay abundance to a vegetation map from 1985, and estimated the population size of A. insularis was 1400-1500 at that time. The 20-30% increase in the jay population suggests that the species has benefited from the recovery of native vegetation since sheep removal. Nevertheless, this jay's tiny range and small population size make it vulnerable to natural

  1. Lichenometry's Black Box: Demographic Characteristics of Rhizocarpon geographicum and Pseudophebe pubescens Inferred from Whole Population Size-Frequency Distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loso, M. G.; Doak, D. F.

    2003-12-01

    For decades, geologists have used the inferred ages of crustose lichens to date geomorphic landforms. Traditionally, lichenometry relies upon the assumption that the size of the largest lichen thallus in a population reliably predicts the age of the landform. But in a given population, both the largest lichens and the probabilities of finding them are determined by the size frequency distribution of the population, a demographic characteristic controlled by the population's particular rates of colonization, growth, and mortality. These rates, and their variability, are driven by biological processes that are difficult to observe directly in the slow-growing lichen species favored by lichenometrists. To improve our understanding of these demographic characteristics- lichenometry's "black box"- we documented the size-frequency distributions of two lichen species, Rhizocarpon geographicum and faster-growing Pseudophebe pubescens, in populations growing on well-dated lakeshores in southcentral Alaska. We sampled whole populations on 5 lakeshores ranging in age from 53 to 172 years old, assembling a dataset of over 15,000 measurements. The results reveal distinct trends shared by both species. On lakeshores of all ages, they consistently maintain a small modal size class ( ˜ 3mm for Rhizocarpon, ˜ 8 mm for Pseudophebe), and frequency declines exponentially above the mode, extending to the largest size classes on the oldest surfaces. These data serve to constrain numerical demographic models of the full lichen population. Model results imply that colonization does not occur as a single pulse after substrate exposure, but instead occurs steadily after some initial lag. These lichens also undergo substantial mortality. For both species, models using steady mortality of 2%/year fit the data significantly better than models assuming zero mortality. This result could explain the discrepancy between lichenometrists' "great growth," a common empirical observation that largest

  2. Hierarchical distance-sampling models to estimate population size and habitat-specific abundance of an island endemic.

    PubMed

    Sillett, T Scott; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew; Kery, Marc; Morrison, Scott A

    2012-10-01

    Population size and habitat-specific abundance estimates are essential for conservation management. A major impediment to obtaining such estimates is that few statistical models are able to simultaneously account for both spatial variation in abundance and heterogeneity in detection probability, and still be amenable to large-scale applications. The hierarchical distance-sampling model of J. A. Royle, D. K. Dawson, and S. Bates provides a practical solution. Here, we extend this model to estimate habitat-specific abundance and rangewide population size of a bird species of management concern, the Island Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma insularis), which occurs solely on Santa Cruz Island, California, USA. We surveyed 307 randomly selected, 300 m diameter, point locations throughout the 250-km2 island during October 2008 and April 2009. Population size was estimated to be 2267 (95% CI 1613-3007) and 1705 (1212-2369) during the fall and spring respectively, considerably lower than a previously published but statistically problematic estimate of 12 500. This large discrepancy emphasizes the importance of proper survey design and analysis for obtaining reliable information for management decisions. Jays were most abundant in low-elevation chaparral habitat; the detection function depended primarily on the percent cover of chaparral and forest within count circles. Vegetation change on the island has been dramatic in recent decades, due to release from herbivory following the eradication of feral sheep (Ovis aries) from the majority of the island in the mid-1980s. We applied best-fit fall and spring models of habitat-specific jay abundance to a vegetation map from 1985, and estimated the population size of A. insularis was 1400-1500 at that time. The 20-30% increase in the jay population suggests that the species has benefited from the recovery of native vegetation since sheep removal. Nevertheless, this jay's tiny range and small population size make it vulnerable to natural

  3. Estimating Size and Trend of the North Interlake Woodland Caribou Population Using Fecal-DNA and Capture-Recapture Models.

    PubMed

    Hettinga, Peter N; Arnason, Arni Neil; Manseau, Micheline; Cross, Dale; Whaley, Kent; Wilson, Paul J

    2012-08-01

    A critical step in recovery efforts for endangered and threatened species is the monitoring of population demographic parameters. As part of these efforts, we evaluated the use of fecal-DNA based capture-recapture methods to estimate population sizes and population rate of change for the North Interlake woodland caribou herd (Rangifer tarandus caribou), Manitoba, Canada. This herd is part of the boreal population of woodland caribou, listed as threatened under the federal Species at Risk Act (2003) and the provincial Manitoba Endangered Species Act (2006). Between 2004 and 2009 (9 surveys), we collected 1,080 fecal samples and identified 180 unique genotypes (102 females and 78 males). We used a robust design survey plan with 2 surveys in most years and analysed the data with Program MARK to estimate encounter rates (p), apparent survival rates (ϕ), rates of population change (λ), and population sizes (N). We estimated these demographic parameters for males and females and for 2 genetic clusters within the North Interlake. The population size estimates were larger for the Lower than the Upper North Interlake area and the proportion of males was lower in the Lower (33%) than the Upper North Interlake (49%). Population rate of change for the entire North Interlake area (2005-2009) using the robust design Pradel model was significantly <1.0 (λ = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.82-0.99) and varied between sex and area with the highest being for males in Lower North Interlake (λ = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.83-1.13) and the lowest being for females in Upper North Interlake (λ = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.69-0.97). The additivity of λ between sex and area is supported on the log scale and translates into males having a λ that is 0.09 greater than females and independent of sex, Lower North Interlake having a λ that is 0.06 greater than Upper North Interlake. Population estimates paralleled these declining trends, which correspond to trends observed in other fragmented populations of woodland caribou

  4. Estimating Size and Trend of the North Interlake Woodland Caribou Population Using Fecal-DNA and Capture–Recapture Models

    PubMed Central

    Hettinga, Peter N; Arnason, Arni Neil; Manseau, Micheline; Cross, Dale; Whaley, Kent; Wilson, Paul J

    2012-01-01

    A critical step in recovery efforts for endangered and threatened species is the monitoring of population demographic parameters. As part of these efforts, we evaluated the use of fecal-DNA based capture–recapture methods to estimate population sizes and population rate of change for the North Interlake woodland caribou herd (Rangifer tarandus caribou), Manitoba, Canada. This herd is part of the boreal population of woodland caribou, listed as threatened under the federal Species at Risk Act (2003) and the provincial Manitoba Endangered Species Act (2006). Between 2004 and 2009 (9 surveys), we collected 1,080 fecal samples and identified 180 unique genotypes (102 females and 78 males). We used a robust design survey plan with 2 surveys in most years and analysed the data with Program MARK to estimate encounter rates (p), apparent survival rates (ϕ), rates of population change (λ), and population sizes (N). We estimated these demographic parameters for males and females and for 2 genetic clusters within the North Interlake. The population size estimates were larger for the Lower than the Upper North Interlake area and the proportion of males was lower in the Lower (33%) than the Upper North Interlake (49%). Population rate of change for the entire North Interlake area (2005–2009) using the robust design Pradel model was significantly <1.0 (λ = 0.90, 95% CI: 0.82–0.99) and varied between sex and area with the highest being for males in Lower North Interlake (λ = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.83–1.13) and the lowest being for females in Upper North Interlake (λ = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.69–0.97). The additivity of λ between sex and area is supported on the log scale and translates into males having a λ that is 0.09 greater than females and independent of sex, Lower North Interlake having a λ that is 0.06 greater than Upper North Interlake. Population estimates paralleled these declining trends, which correspond to trends observed in other fragmented populations of

  5. Population structure and the evolution of sexual size dimorphism and sex ratios in an insular population of Florida box turtles (Terrapene carolina bauri)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dodd, C.K., Jr.

    1997-01-01

    Hypotheses in the chelonian literature suggest that in species with sexual size dimorphism, the smaller sex will mature at a smaller size and a younger age than the larger sex, sex ratios should be biased in favor of the earlier maturing sex, and deviations from a 1:1 sex ratio result from maturation of the smaller sex at a younger age. I tested these hypotheses using data collected from 1991 to 1995 on an insular (Egmont Key) population of Florida box turtles, Terrapene carolina bauri. Contrary to predictions, the earlier maturing sex (males) grew to larger sizes than the late maturing sex. Males were significantly larger than females in mean carapace length but not mean body mass. Sex ratios were not balanced, favoring the earlier maturing sex (1.6 males:1 female), but the sex-ratio imbalance did not result from faster maturation of the smaller sex. The imbalance in the sex ratio in Egmont Key's box turtles is not the result of sampling biases; it may result from nest placement. Size-class structure and sex ratios can provide valuable insights into the status and trends of populations of long-lived turtles.

  6. Male Kirtland's Warblers' patch-level response to landscape structure during periods of varying population size and habitat amounts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Donner, D.M.; Ribic, C.A.; Probst, J.R.

    2009-01-01

    Forest planners must evaluate how spatiotemporal changes in habitat amount and configuration across the landscape as a result of timber management will affect species' persistence. However, there are few long-term programs available for evaluation. We investigated the response of male Kirtland's Warbler (Dendroica kirtlandii) to 26 years of changing patch and landscape structure during a large, 26-year forestry-habitat restoration program within the warbler's primary breeding range. We found that the average density of male Kirtland's Warblers was related to a different combination of patch and landscape attributes depending on the species' regional population level and habitat amounts on the landscape (early succession jack pine (Pinus banksiana) forests; 15-42% habitat cover). Specifically, patch age and habitat regeneration type were important at low male population and total habitat amounts, while patch age and distance to an occupied patch were important at relatively high population and habitat amounts. Patch age and size were more important at increasing population levels and an intermediate amount of habitat. The importance of patch age to average male density during all periods reflects the temporal buildup and decline of male numbers as habitat suitability within the patch changed with succession. Habitat selection (i.e., preference for wildfire-regenerated habitat) and availability may explain the importance of habitat type and patch size during lower population and habitat levels. The relationship between male density and distance when there was the most habitat on the landscape and the male population was large and still increasing may be explained by the widening spatial dispersion of the increasing male population at the regional scale. Because creating or preserving habitat is not a random process, management efforts would benefit from more investigations of managed population responses to changes in spatial structure that occur through habitat gain

  7. Population size and stopover duration estimation using mark–resight data and Bayesian analysis of a superpopulation model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lyons, James E.; Kendall, William; Royle, J. Andrew; Converse, Sarah J.; Andres, Brad A.; Buchanan, Joseph B.

    2016-01-01

    We present a novel formulation of a mark–recapture–resight model that allows estimation of population size, stopover duration, and arrival and departure schedules at migration areas. Estimation is based on encounter histories of uniquely marked individuals and relative counts of marked and unmarked animals. We use a Bayesian analysis of a state–space formulation of the Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model, integrated with a binomial model for counts of unmarked animals, to derive estimates of population size and arrival and departure probabilities. We also provide a novel estimator for stopover duration that is derived from the latent state variable representing the interim between arrival and departure in the state–space model. We conduct a simulation study of field sampling protocols to understand the impact of superpopulation size, proportion marked, and number of animals sampled on bias and precision of estimates. Simulation results indicate that relative bias of estimates of the proportion of the population with marks was low for all sampling scenarios and never exceeded 2%. Our approach does not require enumeration of all unmarked animals detected or direct knowledge of the number of marked animals in the population at the time of the study. This provides flexibility and potential application in a variety of sampling situations (e.g., migratory birds, breeding seabirds, sea turtles, fish, pinnipeds, etc.). Application of the methods is demonstrated with data from a study of migratory sandpipers.

  8. Integrating batch marks and radio tags to estimate the size of a closed population with a movement model.

    PubMed

    Schwarz, Carl James; Cope, Scott; Fratton, Glenda

    2013-12-01

    Movement models require individually identifiable marks to estimate the movement rates among strata. But they are relatively expensive to apply and monitor. Batch marks can be readily applied, but individual animal movements cannot be identified. We describe a method to estimate population size in a stratified population when movement takes place among strata and animals are marked with a combination of batch and individually identifiable tags. A hierarchical model with Bayesian inference is developed that pools information across segments on the detection efficiency based on radio-tagged fish and also uses the movement of the radio-tagged fish to impute the movement of the batch-marked fish to provide estimates of the population size on a segment and river level. The batch marks provide important information to help estimate the movement rates, but contribute little to the overall estimate of the population size. In this case, the approximate equal catchability among strata in either sample obviates the need for stratification. PMID:24455133

  9. Population size and stopover duration estimation using mark-resight data and Bayesian analysis of a superpopulation model.

    PubMed

    Lyons, James E; Kendall, William L; Royle, J Andrew; Converse, Sarah J; Andres, Brad A; Buchanan, Joseph B

    2016-03-01

    We present a novel formulation of a mark-recapture-resight model that allows estimation of population size, stopover duration, and arrival and departure schedules at migration areas. Estimation is based on encounter histories of uniquely marked individuals and relative counts of marked and unmarked animals. We use a Bayesian analysis of a state-space formulation of the Jolly-Seber mark-recapture model, integrated with a binomial model for counts of unmarked animals, to derive estimates of population size and arrival and departure probabilities. We also provide a novel estimator for stopover duration that is derived from the latent state variable representing the interim between arrival and departure in the state-space model. We conduct a simulation study of field sampling protocols to understand the impact of superpopulation size, proportion marked, and number of animals sampled on bias and precision of estimates. Simulation results indicate that relative bias of estimates of the proportion of the population with marks was low for all sampling scenarios and never exceeded 2%. Our approach does not require enumeration of all unmarked animals detected or direct knowledge of the number of marked animals in the population at the time of the study. This provides flexibility and potential application in a variety of sampling situations (e.g., migratory birds, breeding seabirds, sea turtles, fish, pinnipeds, etc.). Application of the methods is demonstrated with data from a study of migratory sandpipers. PMID:26348116

  10. Computing an NPMLE for a mixing distribution in two closed heterogeneous population size models.

    PubMed

    Mao, Chang Xuan

    2008-12-01

    Binomial and geometric mixtures can be used to model data gathered in capture-recapture surveys of animal populations, removal surveys of harvest populations, registrations of disease populations, ecological species census, and so on. To compute a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator for the mixing distribution of heterogeneous capture probabilities, we consider a conditional approach and use a reliable and fast integrative procedure which combines the EM algorithm to increase the likelihood and the vertex-exchange method to update the number of support points. A convergent Newtonian algorithm is used in the M-step of the EM algorithm. PMID:18821726

  11. Estimating population size using single-nucleotide polymorphism-based pedigree data.

    PubMed

    Spitzer, Robert; Norman, Anita J; Schneider, Michael; Spong, Göran

    2016-05-01

    Reliable population estimates are an important aspect of sustainable wildlife management and conservation but can be difficult to obtain for rare and elusive species. Here, we test a new census method based on pedigree reconstruction recently developed by Creel and Rosenblatt (2013). Using a panel of 96 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we genotyped fecal samples from two Swedish brown bear populations for pedigree reconstruction. Based on 433 genotypes from central Sweden (CS) and 265 from northern Sweden (NS), the population estimates (N = 630 for CS, N = 408 for NS) fell within the 95% CI of the official estimates. The precision and accuracy improved with increasing sampling intensity. Like genetic capture-mark-recapture methods, this method can be applied to data from a single sampling session. Pedigree reconstruction combined with noninvasive genetic sampling may thus augment population estimates, particularly for rare and elusive species for which sampling may be challenging. PMID:27096081

  12. Combining waterfowl and breeding bird survey data to estimate wood duck breeding population size in the Atlantic Flyway

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Guthrie Zimmerman; Sauer, John; Fleming, Kathy; Link, William; Pamela R. Garrettson

    2015-01-01

    We combined data from the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey (AFBWS) and the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) to estimate the number of wood ducks (Aix sponsa) in the United States portion of the Atlantic Flyway from 1993 to 2013. The AFBWS is a plot-based survey that covers most of the northern and central portions of the Flyway; when analyzed with adjustments for survey time of day effects, these data can be used to estimate population size. The BBS provides an index of wood duck abundance along roadside routes. Although factors influencing change in BBS counts over time can be controlled in BBS analysis, BBS indices alone cannot be used to derive population size estimates. We used AFBWS data to scale BBS indices for Bird Conservation Regions (BCR), basing the scaling factors on the ratio of estimated AFBWS population sizes to regional BBS indices for portions of BCRs that were common to both surveys. We summed scaled BBS results for portions of the Flyway not covered by the AFBWS with AFBWS population estimates to estimate a mean yearly total of 1,295,875 (mean 95% CI: 1,013,940–1,727,922) wood ducks. Scaling factors varied among BCRs from 16.7 to 148.0; the mean scaling factor was 68.9 (mean 95% CI: 53.5–90.9). Flyway-wide, population estimates from the combined analysis were consistent with alternative estimates derived from harvest data, and also provide population estimates within states and BCRs. We recommend their use in harvest and habitat management within the Atlantic Flyway.

  13. The botanist effect revisited: plant species richness, county area, and human population size in the United States.

    PubMed

    Pautasso, Marco; McKinney, Michael L

    2007-10-01

    The "botanist effect" is thought to be the reason for higher plant species richness in areas where botanists are disproportionately present as an artefactual consequence of a more thorough sampling. We examined whether this was the case for U.S. counties. We collated the number of species of vascular plants, human population size, and the area of U.S. counties. Controlling for spatial autocorrelation and county area, plant species richness increased with human population size and density in counties with and without universities and/or botanical gardens, with no significant differences in the relation between the two subsets. This is consistent with previous findings and further evidence of a broad-scale positive correlation between species richness and human population presence, which has important consequences for the experience of nature by inhabitants of densely populated regions. Combined with the many reports of a negative correlation between the two variables at a local scale, the positive relation between plant species richness in U.S. counties and human population presence stresses the need for the conservation of seminatural areas in urbanized ecosystems and for the containment of urban and suburban sprawl. PMID:17883498

  14. Estimating the Population Size and Genetic Diversity of Amur Tigers in Northeast China

    PubMed Central

    Dou, Hailong; Yang, Haitao; Feng, Limin; Mou, Pu; Wang, Tianming; Ge, Jianping

    2016-01-01

    Over the past century, the endangered Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) has experienced a severe contraction in demography and geographic range because of habitat loss, poaching, and prey depletion. In its historical home in Northeast China, there appears to be a single tiger population that includes tigers in Southwest Primorye and Northeast China; however, the current demographic status of this population is uncertain. Information on the abundance, distribution and genetic diversity of this population for assessing the efficacy of conservation interventions are scarce. We used noninvasive genetic detection data from scats, capture-recapture models and an accumulation curve method to estimate the abundance of Amur tigers in Northeast China. We identified 11 individual tigers (6 females and 5 males) using 10 microsatellite loci in three nature reserves between April 2013 and May 2015. These tigers are confined primarily to a Hunchun Nature Reserve along the border with Russia, with an estimated population abundance of 9–11 tigers during the winter of 2014–2015. They showed a low level of genetic diversity. The mean number of alleles per locus was 2.60 and expected and observed heterozygosity were 0.42 and 0.49, respectively. We also documented long-distance dispersal (~270 km) of a male Amur tiger to Huangnihe Nature Reserve from the border, suggesting that the expansion of neighboring Russian populations may eventually help sustain Chinese populations. However, the small and isolated population recorded by this study demonstrate that there is an urgent need for more intensive regional management to create a tiger-permeable landscape and increased genetic connectivity with other populations. PMID:27100387

  15. Estimating the Population Size and Genetic Diversity of Amur Tigers in Northeast China.

    PubMed

    Dou, Hailong; Yang, Haitao; Feng, Limin; Mou, Pu; Wang, Tianming; Ge, Jianping

    2016-01-01

    Over the past century, the endangered Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) has experienced a severe contraction in demography and geographic range because of habitat loss, poaching, and prey depletion. In its historical home in Northeast China, there appears to be a single tiger population that includes tigers in Southwest Primorye and Northeast China; however, the current demographic status of this population is uncertain. Information on the abundance, distribution and genetic diversity of this population for assessing the efficacy of conservation interventions are scarce. We used noninvasive genetic detection data from scats, capture-recapture models and an accumulation curve method to estimate the abundance of Amur tigers in Northeast China. We identified 11 individual tigers (6 females and 5 males) using 10 microsatellite loci in three nature reserves between April 2013 and May 2015. These tigers are confined primarily to a Hunchun Nature Reserve along the border with Russia, with an estimated population abundance of 9-11 tigers during the winter of 2014-2015. They showed a low level of genetic diversity. The mean number of alleles per locus was 2.60 and expected and observed heterozygosity were 0.42 and 0.49, respectively. We also documented long-distance dispersal (~270 km) of a male Amur tiger to Huangnihe Nature Reserve from the border, suggesting that the expansion of neighboring Russian populations may eventually help sustain Chinese populations. However, the small and isolated population recorded by this study demonstrate that there is an urgent need for more intensive regional management to create a tiger-permeable landscape and increased genetic connectivity with other populations. PMID:27100387

  16. Experts disagree over China's population size, but not over thoroughness of its FP program.

    PubMed

    1977-09-01

    Since the People's Republic of China has not had a census since 1953 (although population counts were taken in 1964 and 1972) official vital rates are a matter of conjecture. However, China watchers agree that birth planning programs plus improvements in public health have resulted in substantial reductions in birth, death, and population growth rates. At the 1977 meeting of the Population Association of America estimated population figures ranged from 922 million with an annual growth rate of 1.75% to 876 million with a population growth rate of .8%. John S. Aird of the Foreign Demographic Analysis Division of the U.S. Department of Commerce has a high estimate of 977.9 million and a low of 889.0 million. A table summarized these estimates. All agree, however, that an extremely effective family planning program is in effect which has lowered birthrates even though the population of the country is relatively young. Marriages occur late. Divorce rate is probably very low. Infant mortality is low. Fertility is undoubtedly declining and is certainly lower than in the majority of developing countries. PMID:12259973

  17. Estimating the abundance of mouse populations of known size: promises and pitfalls of new methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conn, P.B.; Arthur, A.D.; Bailey, L.L.; Singleton, G.R.

    2006-01-01

    Knowledge of animal abundance is fundamental to many ecological studies. Frequently, researchers cannot determine true abundance, and so must estimate it using a method such as mark-recapture or distance sampling. Recent advances in abundance estimation allow one to model heterogeneity with individual covariates or mixture distributions and to derive multimodel abundance estimators that explicitly address uncertainty about which model parameterization best represents truth. Further, it is possible to borrow information on detection probability across several populations when data are sparse. While promising, these methods have not been evaluated using mark?recapture data from populations of known abundance, and thus far have largely been overlooked by ecologists. In this paper, we explored the utility of newly developed mark?recapture methods for estimating the abundance of 12 captive populations of wild house mice (Mus musculus). We found that mark?recapture methods employing individual covariates yielded satisfactory abundance estimates for most populations. In contrast, model sets with heterogeneity formulations consisting solely of mixture distributions did not perform well for several of the populations. We show through simulation that a higher number of trapping occasions would have been necessary to achieve good estimator performance in this case. Finally, we show that simultaneous analysis of data from low abundance populations can yield viable abundance estimates.

  18. Whole-Genome Resequencing of Experimental Populations Reveals Polygenic Basis of Egg-Size Variation in Drosophila melanogaster

    PubMed Central

    Jha, Aashish R.; Miles, Cecelia M.; Lippert, Nodia R.; Brown, Christopher D.; White, Kevin P.; Kreitman, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Complete genome resequencing of populations holds great promise in deconstructing complex polygenic traits to elucidate molecular and developmental mechanisms of adaptation. Egg size is a classic adaptive trait in insects, birds, and other taxa, but its highly polygenic architecture has prevented high-resolution genetic analysis. We used replicated experimental evolution in Drosophila melanogaster and whole-genome sequencing to identify consistent signatures of polygenic egg-size adaptation. A generalized linear-mixed model revealed reproducible allele frequency differences between replicated experimental populations selected for large and small egg volumes at approximately 4,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Several hundred distinct genomic regions contain clusters of these SNPs and have lower heterozygosity than the genomic background, consistent with selection acting on polymorphisms in these regions. These SNPs are also enriched among genes expressed in Drosophila ovaries and many of these genes have well-defined functions in Drosophila oogenesis. Additional genes regulating egg development, growth, and cell size show evidence of directional selection as genes regulating these biological processes are enriched for highly differentiated SNPs. Genetic crosses performed with a subset of candidate genes demonstrated that these genes influence egg size, at least in the large genetic background. These findings confirm the highly polygenic architecture of this adaptive trait, and suggest the involvement of many novel candidate genes in regulating egg size. PMID:26044351

  19. Primary Care Physician Panel Size and Quality of Care: A Population-Based Study in Ontario, Canada

    PubMed Central

    Dahrouge, Simone; Hogg, William; Younger, Jaime; Muggah, Elizabeth; Russell, Grant; Glazier, Richard H.

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between the number of patients under a primary care physician’s care (panel size) and primary care quality indicators. METHODS We conducted a cross-sectional, population-based study of fee-for-service and capitated interprofessional and non-interprofessional primary health care practices in Ontario, Canada between April 2008 and March 2010, encompassing 4,195 physicians with panel sizes ≥1,200 serving 8.3 million patients. Data was extracted from multiple linked, health-related administrative databases and covered 16 quality indicators spanning 5 dimensions of care: access, continuity, comprehensiveness, and evidence-based indicators of cancer screening and chronic disease management. RESULTS The likelihood of being up-to-date on cervical, colorectal, and breast cancer screening showed relative decreases of 7.9% (P <.001), 5.9% (P = .01), and 4.6% (P <.001), respectively, with increasing panel size (from 1,200 to 3,900). Eight chronic care indicators (4 medication-based and 4 screening-based) showed no significant association with panel size. The likelihood of individuals with a new diagnosis of congestive heart failure having an echocardiogram, however, increased by a relative 8.1% (P <.001) with higher panel size. Increasing panel size was also associated with a 10.8% relative increase in hospitalization rates for ambulatory-care–sensitive conditions (P = .04) and a 10.8% decrease in non-urgent emergency department visits (P = .004). Continuity was highest with medium panel sizes (P <.001), and comprehensiveness had a small decrease (P = .03) with increasing panel size. CONCLUSIONS Increasing panel size was associated with small decreases in cancer screening, continuity, and comprehensiveness, but showed no consistent relationships with chronic disease management or access indicators. We found no panel size threshold above which quality of care suffered. PMID:26755780

  20. Habitat selection by breeding waterbirds at ponds with size-structured fish populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kloskowski, Janusz; Nieoczym, Marek; Polak, Marcin; Pitucha, Piotr

    2010-07-01

    Fish may significantly affect habitat use by birds, either as their prey or as competitors. Fish communities are often distinctly size-structured, but the consequences for waterbird assemblages remain poorly understood. We examined the effects of size structure of common carp ( Cyprinus carpio) cohorts together with other biotic and abiotic pond characteristics on the distribution of breeding waterbirds in a seminatural system of monocultured ponds, where three fish age classes were separately stocked. Fish age corresponded to a distinct fish size gradient. Fish age and total biomass, macroinvertebrate and amphibian abundance, and emergent vegetation best explained the differences in bird density between ponds. Abundance of animal prey other than fish (aquatic macroinvertebrates and larval amphibians) decreased with increasing carp age in the ponds. Densities of ducks and smaller grebes were strongly negatively associated with fish age/size gradient. The largest of the grebes, the piscivorous great crested grebe ( Podiceps cristatus), was the only species that preferred ponds with medium-sized fish and was positively associated with total fish biomass. Habitat selection by bitterns and most rallids was instead strongly influenced by the relative amount of emergent vegetation cover in the ponds. Our results show that fish size structure may be an important cue for breeding habitat choice and a factor affording an opportunity for niche diversification in avian communities.

  1. Intermaxillary tooth size discrepancy in a Pakistani population: A stereomicroscope versus digital caliper

    PubMed Central

    Shahid, Fazal; Alam, Mohammad Khursheed; Khamis, Mohd Fadhli

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Comprehensive diagnosis and treatment planning are essential in a successful orthodontic practice. The purpose of this study is to determine and compare intermaxillary tooth size discrepancy (IMTSD) using traditional digital caliper (DC) measurement on plaster dental models and stereomicroscopic digital dental models (SM). Materials and Methods: The samples were randomly selected from different states of Pakistan. Total 7168 variables were measured on plaster dental casts (128) and SM digital dental models (128) according to the selection criteria. For IMTSD, the 6 variable measured as for anterior tooth size (maxilla, mandibular), overall tooth size (maxilla, mandibular), Bolton's anterior ratios (BAR), and Bolton's overall ratios (BOR). The independent t-test and ANOVA were used for statistical analyses. Results: Significant sexual disparities in the sum of anterior tooth size and overall tooth size via DC and SM methods. No significant sexual disparities for BAR and BOR. No statistically significant differences were found in BAR and BOR between DC and SM. No significant differences were found on IMTSD ratio among different arch length and arch perimeters groups. Conclusions: Norms were developed based on DC and SM for IMTSD. Sexual disparities were observed in the sum of teeth size. However, no significant differences in BAR and BOR for IMTSD between the two methods. PMID:27095892

  2. Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: an application to Yellowstone grizzly bears.

    PubMed

    Kamath, Pauline L; Haroldson, Mark A; Luikart, Gordon; Paetkau, David; Whitman, Craig; van Manen, Frank T

    2015-11-01

    Effective population size (N(e)) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different N(e) estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (N(b)) and N(e) during 1982-2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (N(eV)) and inbreeding N(e) (N(eI)). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in N(e) (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. N(eV) (240-319) and N(eI) (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample N(e) (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found N(eV) increased from ≈80 in the 1910s-1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (N(e) /N(c)) was stable and high (0.42-0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of N(e) can complement demographic-based monitoring of N(c) and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers. PMID:26510936

  3. Multiple estimates of effective population size for monitoring a long-lived vertebrate: An application to Yellowstone grizzly bears

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kamath, Pauline L.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Luikart, Gordon; Paetkau, David; Whitman, Craig L.; van Manen, Frank T.

    2015-01-01

    Effective population size (Ne) is a key parameter for monitoring the genetic health of threatened populations because it reflects a population's evolutionary potential and risk of extinction due to genetic stochasticity. However, its application to wildlife monitoring has been limited because it is difficult to measure in natural populations. The isolated and well-studied population of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem provides a rare opportunity to examine the usefulness of different Ne estimators for monitoring. We genotyped 729 Yellowstone grizzly bears using 20 microsatellites and applied three single-sample estimators to examine contemporary trends in generation interval (GI), effective number of breeders (Nb) and Ne during 1982–2007. We also used multisample methods to estimate variance (NeV) and inbreeding Ne (NeI). Single-sample estimates revealed positive trajectories, with over a fourfold increase in Ne (≈100 to 450) and near doubling of the GI (≈8 to 14) from the 1980s to 2000s. NeV (240–319) and NeI (256) were comparable with the harmonic mean single-sample Ne (213) over the time period. Reanalysing historical data, we found NeV increased from ≈80 in the 1910s–1960s to ≈280 in the contemporary population. The estimated ratio of effective to total census size (Ne/Nc) was stable and high (0.42–0.66) compared to previous brown bear studies. These results support independent demographic evidence for Yellowstone grizzly bear population growth since the 1980s. They further demonstrate how genetic monitoring of Ne can complement demographic-based monitoring of Nc and vital rates, providing a valuable tool for wildlife managers.

  4. Coevolution of adaptive technology, maladaptive culture and population size in a producer–scrounger game

    PubMed Central

    Lehmann, Laurent; Feldman, Marcus W.

    2009-01-01

    Technology (i.e. tools, methods of cultivation and domestication, systems of construction and appropriation, machines) has increased the vital rates of humans, and is one of the defining features of the transition from Malthusian ecological stagnation to a potentially perpetual rising population growth. Maladaptations, on the other hand, encompass behaviours, customs and practices that decrease the vital rates of individuals. Technology and maladaptations are part of the total stock of culture carried by the individuals in a population. Here, we develop a quantitative model for the coevolution of cumulative adaptive technology and maladaptive culture in a ‘producer–scrounger’ game, which can also usefully be interpreted as an ‘individual–social’ learner interaction. Producers (individual learners) are assumed to invent new adaptations and maladaptations by trial-and-error learning, insight or deduction, and they pay the cost of innovation. Scroungers (social learners) are assumed to copy or imitate (cultural transmission) both the adaptations and maladaptations generated by producers. We show that the coevolutionary dynamics of producers and scroungers in the presence of cultural transmission can have a variety of effects on population carrying capacity. From stable polymorphism, where scroungers bring an advantage to the population (increase in carrying capacity), to periodic cycling, where scroungers decrease carrying capacity, we find that selection-driven cultural innovation and transmission may send a population on the path of indefinite growth or to extinction. PMID:19692409

  5. Coevolution of adaptive technology, maladaptive culture and population size in a producer-scrounger game.

    PubMed

    Lehmann, Laurent; Feldman, Marcus W

    2009-11-01

    Technology (i.e. tools, methods of cultivation and domestication, systems of construction and appropriation, machines) has increased the vital rates of humans, and is one of the defining features of the transition from Malthusian ecological stagnation to a potentially perpetual rising population growth. Maladaptations, on the other hand, encompass behaviours, customs and practices that decrease the vital rates of individuals. Technology and maladaptations are part of the total stock of culture carried by the individuals in a population. Here, we develop a quantitative model for the coevolution of cumulative adaptive technology and maladaptive culture in a 'producer-scrounger' game, which can also usefully be interpreted as an 'individual-social' learner interaction. Producers (individual learners) are assumed to invent new adaptations and maladaptations by trial-and-error learning, insight or deduction, and they pay the cost of innovation. Scroungers (social learners) are assumed to copy or imitate (cultural transmission) both the adaptations and maladaptations generated by producers. We show that the coevolutionary dynamics of producers and scroungers in the presence of cultural transmission can have a variety of effects on population carrying capacity. From stable polymorphism, where scroungers bring an advantage to the population (increase in carrying capacity), to periodic cycling, where scroungers decrease carrying capacity, we find that selection-driven cultural innovation and transmission may send a population on the path of indefinite growth or to extinction. PMID:19692409

  6. A Paleozoological Perspective on White-Tailed Deer ( Odocoileus virginianus texana) Population Density and Body Size in Central Texas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolverton, Steve; Kennedy, James H.; Cornelius, John D.

    2007-04-01

    Archaeological and paleontological datasets are used in conservation to add time-depth to ecology. In central Texas, several top carnivores including prehistoric Native American hunters have been extirpated or have had their historic ranges restricted, which has resulted in pest-level white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus texana) populations in some areas. Differences in body size of deer between prehistory and modernity are expected, given that a lack of predation likely has increased intraspecific competition for forage among deer, resulting in smaller body size today. In fact, modern deer from settings without harvest pressure are significantly smaller than those from harvested areas and from prehistoric deer. From a natural history perspective, this research highlights potential evolutionary causes and effects of top-predator removal on deer populations and related components of biological communities in central Texas.

  7. Using mass scaling of movement cost and resource encounter rate to predict animal body size-population density relationships.

    PubMed

    Nilsen, Erlend B; Finstad, Anders G; Næsje, Tor F; Sverdrup-Thygeson, Anne

    2013-06-01

    The negative relationship between body mass and population abundance was documented decades ago and forms one of the most fundamental scaling-laws in ecology. However, current theory fails to capture observed variations and the subject continues to raise controversy. Here we unify empirically observed size-abundance relationships with theory, by incorporating allometries in resource encounter rate and metabolic costs of movements. Fractal geometry is used to quantify the underlying resources distributions. Our model predicts that in environments packed with resources, body mass to population abundance relationships is less negative than the commonly assumed -3/4 power law. When resources are more patchily distributed, we predict a more negative exponent. These predictions are consistent with empirical observations. The current research provides an important step towards synthesizing metabolism, resource distribution and the global scaling of animal abundance, explaining why size-abundance relationships vary among feeding guilds and ecosystems. PMID:23548840

  8. Match or mismatch: the influence of phenology on size-dependent life history and divergence in population structure

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Borcherding, Jost; Beeck, Peter; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Scharf, Werner R.

    2010-01-01

    Summary 1. In gape-limited predators, body size asymmetries determine the outcome of predator-prey interactions. Due to ontogenetic changes in body size, the intensity of intra- and interspecific interactions may change rapidly between the match situation of a predator-prey system and the mismatch situation in which competition, including competition with the prey, dominates. 2. Based on a physiologically structured population model using the European perch (Perca fluviatilis), analysis was performed on how prey density (bream, Abramis brama), initial size differences in the young-of-the-year (YOY) age cohort of the predator, and phenology (time-gap in hatching of predator and prey) influence the size structure of the predator cohort. 3. In relation to the seasonality of reproduction, the match situation of the predator-prey system occurred when perch hatched earlier than bream and when no gape-size limitations existed, leading to decreased size divergence in the predator age cohort. Decreased size divergence was also found when bream hatched much earlier than perch, preventing perch predation on bream occurring, which, in turn, increased the competitive interaction of the perch with bream for the common prey, zooplankton; i.e. the mismatch situation in which also the mean size of the age cohort of the predator decreased. 4. In between the total match and the mismatch, however, only the largest individuals of the perch age cohort were able to prey on the bream, while smaller conspecifics got trapped in competition with each other and with bream for zooplankton, leading to enlarged differences in growth that increased size divergence. 5. The modelling results were combined with 7 years of field data in a lake, where large differences in the length-frequency distribution of YOY perch were observed after their first summer. These field data corroborate that phenology and prey density per predator are important mechanisms in determining size differences within the YOY

  9. Estimation of density and population size and recommendations for monitoring trends of Bahama parrots on Great Abaco and Great Inagua

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rivera-Milan, F. F.; Collazo, J.A.; Stahala, C.; Moore, W.J.; Davis, A.; Herring, G.; Steinkamp, M.; Pagliaro, R.; Thompson, J.L.; Bracey, W.

    2005-01-01

    Once abundant and widely distributed, the Bahama parrot (Amazona leucocephala bahamensis) currently inhabits only the Great Abaco and Great lnagua Islands of the Bahamas. In January 2003 and May 2002-2004, we conducted point-transect surveys (a type of distance sampling) to estimate density and population size and make recommendations for monitoring trends. Density ranged from 0.061 (SE = 0.013) to 0.085 (SE = 0.018) parrots/ha and population size ranged from 1,600 (SE = 354) to 2,386 (SE = 508) parrots when extrapolated to the 26,154 ha and 28,162 ha covered by surveys on Abaco in May 2002 and 2003, respectively. Density was 0.183 (SE = 0.049) and 0.153 (SE = 0.042) parrots/ha and population size was 5,344 (SE = 1,431) and 4,450 (SE = 1,435) parrots when extrapolated to the 29,174 ha covered by surveys on Inagua in May 2003 and 2004, respectively. Because parrot distribution was clumped, we would need to survey 213-882 points on Abaco and 258-1,659 points on Inagua to obtain a CV of 10-20% for estimated density. Cluster size and its variability and clumping increased in wintertime, making surveys imprecise and cost-ineffective. Surveys were reasonably precise and cost-effective in springtime, and we recommend conducting them when parrots are pairing and selecting nesting sites. Survey data should be collected yearly as part of an integrated monitoring strategy to estimate density and other key demographic parameters and improve our understanding of the ecological dynamics of these geographically isolated parrot populations at risk of extinction.

  10. Psychiatric Hospital Bed Numbers and Prison Population Sizes in 26 European Countries: A Critical Reconsideration of the Penrose Hypothesis

    PubMed Central

    Blüml, Victor; Waldhör, Thomas; Kapusta, Nestor D.; Vyssoki, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Background Recently, there has been a revived interest in the validity of the Penrose hypothesis, which was originally postulated over 75 years ago. It suggests an inverse relationship between the numbers of psychiatric hospital beds and the sizes of prison population. This study aims to investigate the association between psychiatric hospital beds and prison populations in a large sample of 26 European countries between 1993 and 2011. Methods The association between prison population sizes and numbers of psychiatric hospital beds was assessed by means of Spearman correlations and modeled by a mixed random coefficient regression model. Socioeconomic variables were considered as covariates. Data were retrieved from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Outcomes Mean Spearman correlation coefficients between psychiatric beds and prison population showed a significant negative association (-0.35; p = <0.01). However, in the mixed regression model including socioeconomic covariates there were no significant fixed parameter estimates. Meanwhile, the covariance estimates for the random coefficients psychiatric beds (σ2 = 0.75, p = <0.01) and year (σ2 = 0.0007, p = 0.03) yielded significant results. Interpretation These findings do not support the general validity of the Penrose hypothesis. Notably, the results of the mixed-model show a significant variation in the magnitude and direction of the association of psychiatric hospital bed numbers and the prison population sizes between countries. In this sense, our results challenge the prevalent opinion that a reduction of psychiatric beds subsequently leads to increasing incarcerations. These findings also work against the potential stigmatization of individuals suffering from mental disorders as criminals, which could be an unintentional byproduct of the Penrose hypothesis. PMID:26529102

  11. Spectral Study of Measles Epidemics: The Dependence of Spectral Gradient on the Population Size of the Community

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sumi, Ayako; Olsen, Lars Folke; Ohtomo, Norio; Tanaka, Yukio; Sawamura, Sadashi

    2003-02-01

    We have carried out spectral analysis of measles notifications in several communities in Denmark, UK and USA. The results confirm that each power spectral density (PSD) shows exponential characteristics, which are universally observed in the PSD for time series generated from nonlinear dynamical system. The exponential gradient increases with the population size. For almost all communities, many spectral lines observed in each PSD can be fully assigned to linear combinations of several fundamental periods, suggesting that the measles data are substantially noise-free. The optimum least squares fitting curve calculated using these fundamental periods essentially reproduces an underlying variation of the measles data, and an extension of the curve can be used to predict measles epidemics. For the communities with large population sizes, some PSD patterns obtained from segment time series analysis show a close resemblance to the PSD patterns at the initial stages of a period-doubling bifurcation process for the so-called susceptible/exposed/infectious/recovered (SEIR) model with seasonal forcing. The meaning of the relationship between the exponential gradient and the population size is discussed.

  12. Inverse modeling of pesticide degradation and pesticide-degrading population size dynamics in a bioremediation system: parameterizing the Monod model.

    PubMed

    Sniegowski, Kristel; Mertens, Jan; Diels, Jan; Smolders, Erik; Springael, Dirk

    2009-05-01

    Pesticide degradation models are compared which simulate the response of biofilters for treatment of pesticide-contaminated waste water to time-irregular pesticide supply in which the pesticide is used for growth and mineralized. Biofilter microcosms containing a mixture of straw, peat and soil and harboring micropopulations which uses the herbicide linuron for growth, were irrigated with linuron for 28 weeks with a stop in its supply between week 12 and 17. Matrix samples were regularly taken to assay linuron mineralization. A first-order approximation of the Monod model was used to simulate the observed mineralization data, while an inverse modeling framework combining a sensitivity analysis (Morris Sensitivity Analysis) with an inverse modeling approach (Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis) adopted to parameterize the model. Lag times in linuron mineralization decreased during the initial weeks of linuron irrigation but increased after supply of linuron ceased. The model well-simulated the lag time dynamics which were related to the dynamics of the predicted linuron-degrading population size in the microcosms. It was predicted that the population size decreased at a rate of 0.031 d(-1) after pesticide supply ceased to reach its initial population size after 25 weeks. We conclude that modeling pesticide degradation in biofilters should incorporate biomass dynamics in case the pesticide is used as C-source. First-order approaches without incorporating biomass dynamics could lead to underestimation of the risk of pesticide leaching. PMID:19232428

  13. Effective population size dynamics reveal impacts of historic climatic events and recent anthropogenic pressure in African elephants.

    PubMed

    Okello, J B A; Wittemyer, G; Rasmussen, H B; Arctander, P; Nyakaana, S; Douglas-Hamilton, I; Siegismund, H R

    2008-09-01

    Two hundred years of elephant hunting for ivory, peaking in 1970-1980s, caused local extirpations and massive population declines across Africa. The resulting genetic impacts on surviving populations have not been studied, despite the importance of understanding the evolutionary repercussions of such human-mediated events on this keystone species. Using Bayesian coalescent-based genetic methods to evaluate time-specific changes in effective population size, we analysed genetic variation in 20 highly polymorphic microsatellite loci from 400 elephants inhabiting the greater Samburu-Laikipia region of northern Kenya. This area experienced a decline of between 80% and 90% in the last few decades when ivory harvesting was rampant. The most significant change in effective population size, however, occurred approximately 2500 years ago during a mid-Holocene period of climatic drying in tropical Africa. Contrary to expectations, detailed analyses of four contemporary age-based cohorts showed that the peak poaching epidemic in the 1970s caused detectable temporary genetic impacts, with genetic diversity rebounding as juveniles surviving the poaching era became reproductively mature. This study demonstrates the importance of climatic history in shaping the distribution and genetic history of a keystone species and highlights the utility of coalescent-based demographic approaches in unravelling ancestral demographic events despite a lack of ancient samples. Unique insights into the genetic signature of mid-Holocene climatic change in Africa and effects of recent poaching pressure on elephants are discussed. PMID:18643879

  14. Bucking the trend: genetic analysis reveals high diversity, large population size and low differentiation in a deep ocean cetacean.

    PubMed

    Thompson, K F; Patel, S; Baker, C S; Constantine, R; Millar, C D

    2016-03-01

    Understanding the genetic structure of a population is essential to its conservation and management. We report the level of genetic diversity and determine the population structure of a cryptic deep ocean cetacean, the Gray's beaked whale (Mesoplodon grayi). We analysed 530 bp of mitochondrial control region and 12 microsatellite loci from 94 individuals stranded around New Zealand and Australia. The samples cover a large area of the species distribution (~6000 km) and were collected over a 22-year period. We show high genetic diversity (h=0.933-0.987, π=0.763-0.996% and Rs=4.22-4.37, He=0.624-0.675), and, in contrast to other cetaceans, we found a complete lack of genetic structure in both maternally and biparentally inherited markers. The oceanic habitats around New Zealand are diverse with extremely deep waters, seamounts and submarine canyons that are suitable for Gray's beaked whales and their prey. We propose that the abundance of this rich habitat has promoted genetic homogeneity in this species. Furthermore, it has been suggested that the lack of beaked whale sightings is the result of their low abundance, but this is in contrast to our estimates of female effective population size based on mitochondrial data. In conclusion, the high diversity and lack of genetic structure can be explained by a historically large population size, in combination with no known exploitation, few apparent behavioural barriers and abundant habitat. PMID:26626574

  15. Genetic variation, relatedness, and effective population size of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cronin, M.A.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Talbot, S.L.; Sage, G.K.; Amstrup, K.S.

    2009-01-01

    Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are unique among bears in that they are adapted to the Arctic sea ice environment. Genetic data are useful for understanding their evolution and can contribute to management. We assessed parentage and relatedness of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska, with genetic data and field observations of age, sex, and mother-offspring and sibling relationships. Genotypes at 14 microsatellite DNA loci for 226 bears indicate that genetic variation is comparable to other populations of polar bears with mean number of alleles per locus of 7.9 and observed and expected heterozygosity of 0.71. The genetic data verified 60 field-identified mother-offspring pairs and identified 10 additional mother-cub pairs and 48 father-offspring pairs. The entire sample of related and unrelated bears had a mean pairwise relatedness index (rxy) of approximately zero, parent-offspring and siblings had rxy of approximately 0.5, and 5.2% of the samples had rxy values within the range expected for parent-offspring. Effective population size (Ne = 277) and the ratio of Ne to total population size (Ne/N = 0.182) were estimated from the numbers of reproducing males and females. Ne estimates with genetic methods gave variable results. Our results verify and expand field data on reproduction by females and provide new data on reproduction by males and estimates of relatedness and Ne in a polar bear population. ?? The American Genetic Association. 2009. All rights reserved.

  16. Effects of plant availability on population size and dynamics of an insect community: diamondback moth and two of its parasitoids.

    PubMed

    Soufbaf, M; Fathipour, Y; Karimzadeh, J; Zalucki, M P

    2014-08-01

    To understand the effect of plant availability/structure on the population size and dynamics of insects, a specialist herbivore in the presence of two of its parasitoids was studied in four replicated time-series experiments with high and low plant availabilities; under the latter condition, the herbivore suffered from some periods of resource limitation (starvation) and little plant-related structural refuges. Population dynamics of the parasitoid Cotesia vestalis was governed mainly by the delayed density-dependent process under both plant setups. The parasitoid, Diadegma semiclausum, under different plant availabilities and different coexistence situations (either +competitor or -competitor) showed dynamics patterns that were governed mainly by the delayed density process (significant lags at weeks 2-4). Both the competing parasitoids did not experience beneficial or costly interferences from each other in terms of their own population size when the plant resource was limited. Variation in the Plutella xylostella population under limited plant availability is higher than that under the other plant setup. For both parasitoids, under limited plant setup, the extinction risk was lower when parasitoids were engaged in competition, while under the unlimited plant setup, the mentioned risk was higher when parasitoids competed. In this situation, parasitoids suffered from two forces, competition and higher escaped hosts. PMID:24521693

  17. Alternative reproductive tactics increase effective population size and decrease inbreeding in wild Atlantic salmon

    PubMed Central

    Perrier, Charles; Normandeau, Éric; Dionne, Mélanie; Richard, Antoine; Bernatchez, Louis

    2014-01-01

    While nonanadromous males (stream-resident and/or mature male parr) contribute to reproduction in anadromous salmonids, little is known about their impacts on key population genetic parameters. Here, we evaluated the contribution of Atlantic salmon mature male parr to the effective number of breeders (Nb) using both demographic (variance in reproductive success) and genetic (linkage disequilibrium) methods, the number of alleles, and the relatedness among breeders. We used a recently published pedigree reconstruction of a wild anadromous Atlantic salmon population in which 2548 fry born in 2010 were assigned parentage to 144 anadromous female and 101 anadromous females that returned to the river to spawn in 2009 and to 462 mature male parr. Demographic and genetic methods revealed that mature male parr increased population Nb by 1.79 and 1.85 times, respectively. Moreover, mature male parr boosted the number of alleles found among progenies. Finally, mature male parr were in average less related to anadromous females than were anadromous males, likely because of asynchronous sexual maturation between mature male parr and anadromous fish of a given cohort. By increasing Nb and allelic richness, and by decreasing inbreeding, the reproductive contribution of mature male parr has important evolutionary and conservation implications for declining Atlantic salmon populations. PMID:25553070

  18. Small population size of Pribilof Rock Sandpipers confirmed through distance-sampling surveys in Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ruthrauff, Daniel R.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Gill, Robert E., Jr.; Dementyev, Maksim N.; Handel, Colleen M.

    2012-01-01

    The Rock Sandpiper (Calidris ptilocnemis) is endemic to the Bering Sea region and unique among shorebirds in the North Pacific for wintering at high latitudes. The nominate subspecies, the Pribilof Rock Sandpiper (C. p. ptilocnemis), breeds on four isolated islands in the Bering Sea and appears to spend the winter primarily in Cook Inlet, Alaska. We used a stratified systematic sampling design and line-transect method to survey the entire breeding range of this population during springs 2001-2003. Densities were up to four times higher on the uninhabited and more northerly St. Matthew and Hall islands than on St. Paul and St. George islands, which both have small human settlements and introduced reindeer herds. Differences in density, however, appeared to be more related to differences in vegetation than to anthropogenic factors, raising some concern for prospective effects of climate change. We estimated the total population at 19 832 birds (95% CI 17 853–21 930), ranking it among the smallest of North American shorebird populations. To determine the vulnerability of C. p. ptilocnemis to anthropogenic and stochastic environmental threats, future studies should focus on determining the amount of gene flow among island subpopulations, the full extent of the subspecies' winter range, and the current trajectory of this small population.

  19. Craniofacial variation, body size and ecological factors in aboriginal populations from central Patagonia (2000-200 years B.P.).

    PubMed

    Bernal, Valeria; Béguelin, Marien; Gordón, Florencia; Cobos, Virginia A; Gonzalez, Paula N; Lotto, Federico P

    2014-04-01

    Previous studies have shown that ecological factors had a significant role in shaping the patterns of craniofacial variation among South American populations. Here, we evaluate whether temperature and diet contributed to facial diversification in small geographic areas. Facial size and shape of 9 osteological samples from central Patagonia (Argentina) were described using 2D landmarks and semilandmarks. Data on mean annual temperature, diet composition (δ(13)C and δ(15)N values) and femoral head maximum breadth, used as a proxy of body mass, were obtained for each sample. We then tested the association of body mass and the ecological variables with facial morphology using spatial regression techniques and a model selection approach. Akaike Information Criterion produced disparate results for both components of facial morphology. The best model for facial size included temperature and body mass proxy, and accounted for more than 80% of variation in size. Lower temperatures were related to larger facial sizes. Body mass was negatively associated with facial size and showed no relationship with the temperature. This suggests a relatively independent variation of cranial traits and body mass at the spatial scale studied here. Facial shape was not associated with the temperature or diet composition, contrasting with the patterns observed at larger spatial scales. Our results point out that the effect of climatic variables on cranial traits might be a source of morphological differentiation not only at large scales but also in small geographic areas, and that size and shape display a differential preservation of environmental signals. PMID:24462195

  20. Impact of minimum catch size on the population viability of Strombus gigas (Mesogastropoda: Strombidae) in Quintana Roo, Mexico.

    PubMed

    Peel, Joanne R; Mandujano, María del Carmen

    2014-12-01

    The queen conch Strombus gigas represents one of the most important fishery resources of the Caribbean but heavy fishing pressure has led to the depletion of stocks throughout the region, causing the inclusion of this species into CITES Appendix II and IUCN's Red-List. In Mexico, the queen conch is managed through a minimum fishing size of 200 mm shell length and a fishing quota which usually represents 50% of the adult biomass. The objectives of this study were to determine the intrinsic population growth rate of the queen conch population of Xel-Ha, Quintana Roo, Mexico, and to assess the effects of a regulated fishing impact, simulating the extraction of 50% adult biomass on the population density. We used three different minimum size criteria to demonstrate the effects of minimum catch size on the population density and discuss biological implications. Demographic data was obtained through capture-mark-recapture sampling, collecting all animals encountered during three hours, by three divers, at four different sampling sites of the Xel-Ha inlet. The conch population was sampled each month between 2005 and 2006, and bimonthly between 2006 and 2011, tagging a total of 8,292 animals. Shell length and lip thickness were determined for each individual. The average shell length for conch with formed lip in Xel-Ha was 209.39 ± 14.18 mm and the median 210 mm. Half of the sampled conch with lip ranged between 200 mm and 219 mm shell length. Assuming that the presence of the lip is an indicator for sexual maturity, it can be concluded that many animals may form their lip at greater shell lengths than 200 mm and ought to be considered immature. Estimation of relative adult abundance and densities varied greatly depending on the criteria employed for adult classification. When using a minimum fishing size of 200 mm shell length, between 26.2% and up to 54.8% of the population qualified as adults, which represented a simulated fishing impact of almost one third of the

  1. Effect of sampling methods, effective population size and migration rate estimation in Glossina palpalis palpalis from Cameroon.

    PubMed

    Mélachio, Tanekou Tito Trésor; Njiokou, Flobert; Ravel, Sophie; Simo, Gustave; Solano, Philippe; De Meeûs, Thierry

    2015-07-01

    Human and animal trypanosomiases are two major constraints to development in Africa. These diseases are mainly transmitted by tsetse flies in particular by Glossina palpalis palpalis in Western and Central Africa. To set up an effective vector control campaign, prior population genetics studies have proved useful. Previous studies on population genetics of G. p. palpalis using microsatellite loci showed high heterozygote deficits, as compared to Hardy-Weinberg expectations, mainly explained by the presence of null alleles and/or the mixing of individuals belonging to several reproductive units (Wahlund effect). In this study we implemented a system of trapping, consisting of a central trap and two to four satellite traps around the central one to evaluate a possible role of the Wahlund effect in tsetse flies from three Cameroon human and animal African trypanosomiases foci (Campo, Bipindi and Fontem). We also estimated effective population sizes and dispersal. No difference was observed between the values of allelic richness, genetic diversity and Wright's FIS, in the samples from central and from satellite traps, suggesting an absence of Wahlund effect. Partitioning of the samples with Bayesian methods showed numerous clusters of 2-3 individuals as expected from a population at demographic equilibrium with two expected offspring per reproducing female. As previously shown, null alleles appeared as the most probable factor inducing these heterozygote deficits in these populations. Effective population sizes varied from 80 to 450 individuals while immigration rates were between 0.05 and 0.43, showing substantial genetic exchanges between different villages within a focus. These results suggest that the "suppression" with establishment of physical barriers may be the best strategy for a vector control campaign in this forest context. PMID:25917495

  2. Computer program for sample sizes required to determine disease incidence in fish populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ossiander, Frank J.; Wedemeyer, Gary

    1973-01-01

    A computer program is described for generating the sample size tables required in fish hatchery disease inspection and certification. The program was designed to aid in detection of infectious pancreatic necrosis (IPN) in salmonids, but it is applicable to any fish disease inspection when the sampling plan follows the hypergeometric distribution.

  3. The interacting effects of diversity and propagule pressure on early colonization and population size.

    PubMed

    Hedge, Luke H; Leung, Brian; O'Connor, Wayne A; Johnston, Emma L

    2014-01-01

    We are now beginning to understand the role of intraspecific diversity on fundamental ecological phenomena. There exists a paucity of knowledge, however, regarding how intraspecific, or genetic diversity, may covary with other important factors such as propagule pressure. A combination of theoretical modelling and experimentation was used to explore the way propagule pressure and genetic richness may interact. We compare colonization rates of the Australian bivalve Saccostrea glomerata (Gould 1885). We cross propagule size and genetic richness in a factorial design in order to examine the generalities of our theoretical model. Modelling showed that diversity and propagule pressure should generally interact synergistically when positive feedbacks occur (e.g. aggregation). The strength of genotype effects depended on propagule size, or the numerical abundance of arriving individuals. When propagule size was very small (<4 individuals), however, greater genetic richness unexpectedly reduced colonization. The probability of S. glomerata colonization was 76% in genetically rich, larger propagules, almost 39 percentage points higher than in genetically poor propagules of similar size. This pattern was not observed in less dense, smaller propagules. We predict that density-dependent interactions between larvae in the water column may explain this pattern. PMID:24001312

  4. Importance of climate, forest fires and human population size on the long-term boreal forest dynamics in Northern Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuosmanen, Niina; Seppä, Heikki; Alenius, Teija; Bradshaw, Richard; Clear, Jennifer; Filimonova, Fludmila; Heikkilä, Maija; Renssen, Hans; Tallavaara, Miikka; Reitalu, Triin

    2016-04-01

    Palaeoecological data provides valuable information for understanding the processes behind the past changes in forest composition, and hence can provide important knowledge regarding the potential effects of future changes in climate on boreal vegetation. Furthermore, it is essential to consider both regional and local factors in order to better understand the processes behind the boreal forest dynamics. The relative importance of climate, forest fires and human population size on long-term boreal forest composition were statistically investigated at regional and local scales in Fennoscandia. Statistical method variation partitioning was employed to assess the relative importance of these three variables. Fossil pollen data reflecting long-term boreal forest composition, at both regional (lake records) and local (small hollow records) scales from Russia, Finland and Sweden, were used as response matrix. Climate, generated from a climate model and oxygen isotope data, past forest fires generated from sedimentary charcoal data and human population size derived from radiocarbon dated archaeological findings were used as potential drivers of long-term boreal vegetation. Though the results clearly demonstrate that climate is the main driver of long-term vegetation changes at the regional scale, the role of climate notably is smaller at local scale and the influence of local site specific factors increases. However, the relative importance of forest fires on long-term changes in boreal forest composition remain generally low both at regional and local scale. The relatively low importance of both climate and forest fires on the variation in long-term boreal forest composition at local scale demonstrates the complexity of factors affecting stand-scale forest dynamics. In general, the relative importance of human population size on long-term changes in boreal vegetation was low. However, this was the first time that this type of human population size data was statistically

  5. The Self Actualized Reader.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marino, Michael; Moylan, Mary Elizabeth

    A study examined the commonalities that "voracious" readers share, and how their experiences can guide parents, teachers, and librarians in assisting children to become self-actualized readers. Subjects, 25 adults ranging in age from 20 to 67 years, completed a questionnaire concerning their reading histories and habits. Respondents varied in…

  6. Calibrating abundance indices with population size estimators of red back salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) in a New England forest

    PubMed Central

    Ellison, Aaron M.; Jackson, Scott

    2015-01-01

    Herpetologists and conservation biologists frequently use convenient and cost-effective, but less accurate, abundance indices (e.g., number of individuals collected under artificial cover boards or during natural objects surveys) in lieu of more accurate, but costly and destructive, population size estimators to detect and monitor size, state, and trends of amphibian populations. Although there are advantages and disadvantages to each approach, reliable use of abundance indices requires that they be calibrated with accurate population estimators. Such calibrations, however, are rare. The red back salamander, Plethodon cinereus, is an ecologically useful indicator species of forest dynamics, and accurate calibration of indices of salamander abundance could increase the reliability of abundance indices used in monitoring programs. We calibrated abundance indices derived from surveys of P. cinereus under artificial cover boards or natural objects with a more accurate estimator of their population size in a New England forest. Average densities/m2 and capture probabilities of P. cinereus under natural objects or cover boards in independent, replicate sites at the Harvard Forest (Petersham, Massachusetts, USA) were similar in stands dominated by Tsuga canadensis (eastern hemlock) and deciduous hardwood species (predominantly Quercus rubra [red oak] and Acer rubrum [red maple]). The abundance index based on salamanders surveyed under natural objects was significantly associated with density estimates of P. cinereus derived from depletion (removal) surveys, but underestimated true density by 50%. In contrast, the abundance index based on cover-board surveys overestimated true density by a factor of 8 and the association between the cover-board index and the density estimates was not statistically significant. We conclude that when calibrated and used appropriately, some abundance indices may provide cost-effective and reliable measures of P. cinereus abundance that could

  7. Genetic load, inbreeding depression, and hybrid vigor covary with population size: An empirical evaluation of theoretical predictions.

    PubMed

    Lohr, Jennifer N; Haag, Christoph R

    2015-12-01

    Reduced population size is thought to have strong consequences for evolutionary processes as it enhances the strength of genetic drift. In its interaction with selection, this is predicted to increase the genetic load, reduce inbreeding depression, and increase hybrid vigor, and in turn affect phenotypic evolution. Several of these predictions have been tested, but comprehensive studies controlling for confounding factors are scarce. Here, we show that populations of Daphnia magna, which vary strongly in genetic diversity, also differ in genetic load, inbreeding depression, and hybrid vigor in a way that strongly supports theoretical predictions. Inbreeding depression is positively correlated with genetic diversity (a proxy for Ne ), and genetic load and hybrid vigor are negatively correlated with genetic diversity. These patterns remain significant after accounting for potential confounding factors and indicate that, in small populations, a large proportion of the segregation load is converted into fixed load. Overall, the results suggest that the nature of genetic variation for fitness-related traits differs strongly between large and small populations. This has large consequences for evolutionary processes in natural populations, such as selection on dispersal, breeding systems, ageing, and local adaptation. PMID:26497949

  8. Real-time measurement of alveolar size and population using phase contrast x-ray imaging

    PubMed Central

    Leong, Andrew F.T.; Buckley, Genevieve A.; Paganin, David M.; Hooper, Stuart B.; Wallace, Megan J.; Kitchen, Marcus J.

    2014-01-01

    Herein a propagation-based phase contrast x-ray imaging technique for measuring particle size and number is presented. This is achieved with an algorithm that utilizes the Fourier space signature of the speckle pattern associated with the images of particles. We validate this algorithm using soda-lime glass particles, demonstrating its effectiveness on random and non-randomly packed particles. This technique is then applied to characterise lung alveoli, which are difficult to measure dynamically in vivo with current imaging modalities due to inadequate temporal resolution and/or depth of penetration and field-of-view. We obtain an important result in that our algorithm is able to measure changes in alveolar size on the micron scale during ventilation and shows the presence of alveolar recruitment/de-recruitment in newborn rabbit kittens. This technique will be useful for ventilation management and lung diagnostic procedures. PMID:25426328

  9. Real-time measurement of alveolar size and population using phase contrast x-ray imaging.

    PubMed

    Leong, Andrew F T; Buckley, Genevieve A; Paganin, David M; Hooper, Stuart B; Wallace, Megan J; Kitchen, Marcus J

    2014-11-01

    Herein a propagation-based phase contrast x-ray imaging technique for measuring particle size and number is presented. This is achieved with an algorithm that utilizes the Fourier space signature of the speckle pattern associated with the images of particles. We validate this algorithm using soda-lime glass particles, demonstrating its effectiveness on random and non-randomly packed particles. This technique is then applied to characterise lung alveoli, which are difficult to measure dynamically in vivo with current imaging modalities due to inadequate temporal resolution and/or depth of penetration and field-of-view. We obtain an important result in that our algorithm is able to measure changes in alveolar size on the micron scale during ventilation and shows the presence of alveolar recruitment/de-recruitment in newborn rabbit kittens. This technique will be useful for ventilation management and lung diagnostic procedures. PMID:25426328

  10. Effects of Patch-Size on Populations of Intertidal Limpets, Siphonaria spp., in a Linear Landscape

    PubMed Central

    Cole, Victoria J.; Johnson, Linda G.; McQuaid, Christopher D.

    2012-01-01

    Organisms with different life-histories and abilities to disperse often utilise habitat patches in different ways. We investigated the influence of the size of patches of rock (separated by stretches of sand) on the density of pulmonate limpets (Siphonaria spp.) along 1500 km of the linear landscape of the South African coastline. We compared the influence of patch-size on two congeneric species with different modes of development, S. serrata a direct developer, and S. concinna a planktonic developer. We tested the spatial and temporal consistency of the effects of patch-size by sampling 7 independent regions spanning the distributional range of both species of limpets, and by sampling one region at monthly intervals for 1 year. Within each region or month, 4 small patches (<20 m in length) interspersed with the 4 large patches (>60 m in length) were sampled. Across the entire geographic range and throughout the year, there were more of both species of limpets in large patches than in small patches. In most regions, there was greater variability in large patches than small patches. Variability within patches in a single region was similar throughout the year, with greater variability of both species in large than in small patches. We found little influence of the mode of development on the response of limpets to patch-size. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding patterns of distribution of species with respect to habitat heterogeneity in linear landscapes, and contradict the idea that organism mobility at an early ontogenetic stage directly affects habitat use. PMID:23284875

  11. The kilometer-sized Main Belt asteroid population revealed by Spitzer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryan, E. L.; Mizuno, D. R.; Shenoy, S. S.; Woodward, C. E.; Carey, S. J.; Noriega-Crespo, A.; Kraemer, K. E.; Price, S. D.

    2015-06-01

    Aims: Multi-epoch Spitzer Space Telescope 24 μm data is utilized from the MIPSGAL and Taurus Legacy surveys to detect asteroids based on their relative motion. Methods: Infrared detections are matched to known asteroids and average diameters and albedos are derived using the near Earth asteroid thermal model (NEATM) for 1865 asteroids ranging in size from 0.2 to 169 km. A small subsample of these objects was also detected by IRAS or MSX and the single wavelength albedo and diameter fits derived from these data are within the uncertainties of the IRAS and/or MSX derived albedos and diameters and available occultation diameters, which demonstrates the robustness of our technique. Results: The mean geometric albedo of the small Main Belt asteroids in this sample is pV = 0.134 with a sample standard deviation of 0.106. The albedo distribution of this sample is far more diverse than the IRAS or MSX samples. The cumulative size-frequency distribution of asteroids in the Main Belt at small diameters is directly derived and a 3σ deviation from the fitted size-frequency distribution slope is found near 8 km. Completeness limits of the optical and infrared surveys are discussed. Tables 1-3 are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/578/A42

  12. PSMC analysis of effective population sizes in molecular ecology and its application to black-and-white Ficedula flycatchers.

    PubMed

    Nadachowska-Brzyska, Krystyna; Burri, Reto; Smeds, Linnéa; Ellegren, Hans

    2016-03-01

    Climatic fluctuations during the Quaternary period governed the demography of species and contributed to population differentiation and ultimately speciation. Studies of these past processes have previously been hindered by a lack of means and genetic data to model changes in effective population size (Ne ) through time. However, based on diploid genome sequences of high quality, the recently developed pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) can estimate trajectories of changes in Ne over considerable time periods. We applied this approach to resequencing data from nearly 200 genomes of four species and several populations of the Ficedula species complex of black-and-white flycatchers. Ne curves of Atlas, collared, pied and semicollared flycatcher converged 1-2 million years ago (Ma) at an Ne of ≈ 200 000, likely reflecting the time when all four species last shared a common ancestor. Subsequent separate Ne trajectories are consistent with lineage splitting and speciation. All species showed evidence of population growth up until 100-200 thousand years ago (kya), followed by decline and then start of a new phase of population expansion. However, timing and amplitude of changes in Ne differed among species, and for pied flycatcher, the temporal dynamics of Ne differed between Spanish birds and central/northern European populations. This cautions against extrapolation of demographic inference between lineages and calls for adequate sampling to provide representative pictures of the coalescence process in different species or populations. We also empirically evaluate criteria for proper inference of demographic histories using PSMC and arrive at recommendations of using sequencing data with a mean genome coverage of ≥18X, a per-site filter of ≥10 reads and no more than 25% of missing data. PMID:26797914

  13. Genomic Prediction in Pea: Effect of Marker Density and Training Population Size and Composition on Prediction Accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Tayeh, Nadim; Klein, Anthony; Le Paslier, Marie-Christine; Jacquin, Françoise; Houtin, Hervé; Rond, Céline; Chabert-Martinello, Marianne; Magnin-Robert, Jean-Bernard; Marget, Pascal; Aubert, Grégoire; Burstin, Judith

    2015-01-01

    Pea is an important food and feed crop and a valuable component of low-input farming systems. Improving resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses is a major breeding target to enhance yield potential and regularity. Genomic selection (GS) has lately emerged as a promising technique to increase the accuracy and gain of marker-based selection. It uses genome-wide molecular marker data to predict the breeding values of candidate lines to selection. A collection of 339 genetic resource accessions (CRB339) was subjected to high-density genotyping using the GenoPea 13.2K SNP Array. Genomic prediction accuracy was evaluated for thousand seed weight (TSW), the number of seeds per plant (NSeed), and the date of flowering (BegFlo). Mean cross-environment prediction accuracies reached 0.83 for TSW, 0.68 for NSeed, and 0.65 for BegFlo. For each trait, the statistical method, the marker density, and/or the training population size and composition used for prediction were varied to investigate their effects on prediction accuracy: the effect was large for the size and composition of the training population but limited for the statistical method and marker density. Maximizing the relatedness between individuals in the training and test sets, through the CDmean-based method, significantly improved prediction accuracies. A cross-population cross-validation experiment was further conducted using the CRB339 collection as a training population set and nine recombinant inbred lines populations as test set. Prediction quality was high with mean Q2 of 0.44 for TSW and 0.59 for BegFlo. Results are discussed in the light of current efforts to develop GS strategies in pea. PMID:26635819

  14. Assessing effective population size, coancestry and inbreeding effects on litter size using the pedigree and SNP data in closed lines of the Iberian pig breed.

    PubMed

    Silió, L; Barragán, C; Fernández, A I; García-Casco, J; Rodríguez, M C

    2016-04-01

    The complete pedigree of two closed Iberian pig lines (Gamito and Torbiscal), with 798 and 4077 reproducers, has been used to measure the evolution of coancestry (f) and inbreeding (F) for autosomal and X-linked genes along 16 and 28 respective equivalent discrete generations. At the last generation, the mean values of each line were f = 0.41 and 0.22, F = 0.35 and 0.18, fX  = 0.46 and 0.22 and FX  = 0.47 and 0.19, respectively. Other calculated parameters were the effective number of founders (final values, 6.8 and 35.2) and non-founders (1.5 and 2.4), founder genome equivalents (1.2 and 2.3) and effective population size (16.0 and 57.7). Measures of Torbiscal effective size based on rates of coancestry (66.1), inbreeding (65.0) and linkage disequilibrium (71.0) were estimated from whole-genome SNP genotyping data. Values of new and old inbreeding and their respective rates by generation were computed to detect purging effects of natural selection. The analysis of 6854 Torbiscal litters showed significant negative impacts of new and fast inbreeding on litter size, as expected from the purging hypothesis: -0.20 born piglets per litter by a 10% of new inbreeding, and -0.03 and -0.02 piglets by 1% of total and new inbreeding rates, respectively. The analysis performed on 1274 litters of the Gamito line failed to show purging effects. The only significant results were reductions in -0.91 and -0.17 piglets by a 10% of old and X-linked genes inbreeding, respectively. These results may be useful for some practical issues in conservation programs of farm or captive wild animals. PMID:26059912

  15. Estimating animal populations and body sizes from burrows: Marine ecologists have their heads buried in the sand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlacher, Thomas A.; Lucrezi, Serena; Peterson, Charles H.; Connolly, Rod M.; Olds, Andrew D.; Althaus, Franziska; Hyndes, Glenn A.; Maslo, Brooke; Gilby, Ben L.; Leon, Javier X.; Weston, Michael A.; Lastra, Mariano; Williams, Alan; Schoeman, David S.

    2016-06-01

    Most ecological studies require knowledge of animal abundance, but it can be challenging and destructive of habitat to obtain accurate density estimates for cryptic species, such as crustaceans that tunnel deeply into the seafloor, beaches, or mudflats. Such fossorial species are, however, widely used in environmental impact assessments, requiring sampling techniques that are reliable, efficient, and environmentally benign for these species and environments. Counting and measuring the entrances of burrows made by cryptic species is commonly employed to index population and body sizes of individuals. The fundamental premise is that burrow metrics consistently predict density and size. Here we review the evidence for this premise. We also review criteria for selecting among sampling methods: burrow counts, visual censuses, and physical collections. A simple 1:1 correspondence between the number of holes and population size cannot be assumed. Occupancy rates, indexed by the slope of regression models, vary widely between species and among sites for the same species. Thus, 'average' or 'typical' occupancy rates should not be extrapolated from site- or species specific field validations and then be used as conversion factors in other situations. Predictions of organism density made from burrow counts often have large uncertainty, being double to half of the predicted mean value. Whether such prediction uncertainty is 'acceptable' depends on investigators' judgements regarding the desired detectable effect sizes. Regression models predicting body size from burrow entrance dimensions are more precise, but parameter estimates of most models are specific to species and subject to site-to-site variation within species. These results emphasise the need to undertake thorough field validations of indirect census techniques that include tests of how sensitive predictive models are to changes in habitat conditions or human impacts. In addition, new technologies (e.g. drones

  16. Line transect estimation of population size: the exponential case with grouped data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, K.P.; Crain, B.R.

    1979-01-01

    Gates, Marshall, and Olson (1968) investigated the line transect method of estimating grouse population densities in the case where sighting probabilities are exponential. This work is followed by a simulation study in Gates (1969). A general overview of line transect analysis is presented by Burnham and Anderson (1976). These articles all deal with the ungrouped data case. In the present article, an analysis of line transect data is formulated under the Gates framework of exponential sighting probabilities and in the context of grouped data.

  17. Effective Population Size and Signatures of Selection Using Bovine 50K SNP Chips in Korean Native Cattle (Hanwoo)

    PubMed Central

    Li, Yi; Kim, Jong-Joo

    2015-01-01

    Inferring the effective population size and the pattern of selection signatures is of interest both from an evolutionary perspective and to improve models for mapping of quantitative trait genes. We used DNA samples of 61 sires and 486 progeny of the Hanwoo, genotyped by the Illumina Bovine SNP50 BeadChip, to analyze the genetic structure. Our study showed a persistent decline in effective population size throughout the period considered, but suggested a marked decline at one distinctive time point (100th generation) and two sharp decline intervals (50th–25th generation and 25th–10th generation). This pattern can be explained by Hanwoo formation and the modern breeding program. Our results revealed 95 regions exhibiting the footprint of recent positive selection at a threshold level of 0.01. We found an overlap of the 11 core regions presenting top P-values and those that had previously been identified as harboring quantitative trait loci from other breeds. The information generated from this study can be used to better understand the mechanism of selection in Hanwoo breeding, and provide important implications for the design and application of association studies in the Hanwoo population. PMID:26244003

  18. Efficient inference of population size histories and locus-specific mutation rates from large-sample genomic variation data

    PubMed Central

    Bhaskar, Anand; Wang, Y.X. Rachel; Song, Yun S.

    2015-01-01

    With the recent increase in study sample sizes in human genetics, there has been growing interest in inferring historical population demography from genomic variation data. Here, we present an efficient inference method that can scale up to very large samples, with tens or hundreds of thousands of individuals. Specifically, by utilizing analytic results on the expected frequency spectrum under the coalescent and by leveraging the technique of automatic differentiation, which allows us to compute gradients exactly, we develop a very efficient algorithm to infer piecewise-exponential models of the historical effective population size from the distribution of sample allele frequencies. Our method is orders of magnitude faster than previous demographic inference methods based on the frequency spectrum. In addition to inferring demography, our method can also accurately estimate locus-specific mutation rates. We perform extensive validation of our method on simulated data and show that it can accurately infer multiple recent epochs of rapid exponential growth, a signal that is difficult to pick up with small sample sizes. Lastly, we use our method to analyze data from recent sequencing studies, including a large-sample exome-sequencing data set of tens of thousands of individuals assayed at a few hundred genic regions. PMID:25564017

  19. The bisexual branching process with population-size dependent mating as a mathematical model to describe phenomena concerning to inhabit or re-inhabit environments with animal species.

    PubMed

    Mota, M; del Puerto, I; Ramos, A

    2007-03-01

    We consider the bisexual Galton-Watson branching process with population-size dependent mating as a mathematical model adequate for the description of some natural phenomena. More specifically we are interested in studying some questions about the problem of populating an environmental with new animal species or re-populating it with species which have previously disappeared. PMID:16197966

  20. Tooth size discrepancy in a Libyan population, a cross-sectional study in schoolchildren

    PubMed Central

    Bugaighis, Iman; Karanth, Divakar

    2015-01-01

    Objetives: The aim of this cross-sectional study was to investigate the tooth size discrepancy (TSD) in a group of Libyan schoolchildren, and to compare TSD between sexes. Material and Methods: The sample comprised 333 Libyan schoolchildren (162 males with a mean (SD) age of 14.4 (1.1) years, and 171 females with a mean age of 14.1 (1.1) years). Anterior and overall TSD ratios were computed using descriptive statistics. Sex differences were statistically assessed using an independent t-test (P<0.05). Results: Males showed significantly wider MD tooth width compared to females (P<0.05), except for the maxillary first premolars and mandibular central incisors. There were significant differences (P<0.05) between the paired (right and left sides) tooth measurements except for the maxillary and mandibular central and lateral incisors as well as mandibular canines. The mean (SD) for overall and anterior TSD ratios were 91.3% (2.1) and 78.2% (2.6), respectively, with no significant sex differences for both variables (P> 0.05). The percentages of participants showing more than 2 SD variation for the anterior and overall ratios comprised 3% and 4.2% of the total sample, respectively. Conclusions: The anterior and overall TSD ratios for the examined subjects were established and showed no significant sexual dimorphism. Key words:Tooth size discrepancy, Libyan, schoolchildren. PMID:25810819

  1. Plant population size and isolation affect herbivory of Silene latifolia by the specialist herbivore Hadena bicruris and parasitism of the herbivore by parasitoids.

    PubMed

    Elzinga, Jelmer A; Turin, Hans; van Damme, Jos M M; Biere, Arjen

    2005-07-01

    Habitat fragmentation can affect levels of herbivory in plant populations if plants and herbivores are differentially affected by fragmentation. Moreover, if herbivores are top-down controlled by predators or parasitoids, herbivory may also be affected by differential effects of fragmentation on herbivores and their natural enemies. We used natural Silene latifolia populations to examine the effects of plant population size and isolation on the level of herbivory by the seed predating noctuid Hadena bicruris and the rate of parasitism of the herbivore by its parasitoids. In addition, we examined oviposition rate, herbivory and parasitism in differently sized experimental populations. In natural populations, the level of herbivory increased and the rate of parasitism decreased with decreasing plant population size and increasing degree of isolation. The number of parasitoid species also declined with decreasing plant population size. In the experimental populations, the level of herbivory was also higher in smaller populations, in accordance with higher oviposition rates, but was not accompanied by lower rates of parasitism. Similarly, oviposition rate and herbivory, but not parasitism rate, increased near the edges of populations. These results suggests that in this system with the well dispersing herbivore H. bicruris, habitat fragmentation increases herbivory of the plant through a behavioural response of the moth that leads to higher oviposition rates in fragmented populations with a reduced population size, increased isolation and higher edge-to-interior ratio. Although the rate of parasitism and the number of parasitoid species declined with decreasing population size in the natural populations, we argue that in this system it is unlikely that this decline made a major contribution to increased herbivory. PMID:15891816

  2. Land, energy and water: the constraints governing ideal U.S. population size.

    PubMed

    Pimental, D; Pimental, M

    1990-01-01

    This document examines the constraints that are placed on US prosperity with increasing land, energy, and water usage. The report compares China and America and suggests that, if the US is not careful, our situation is headed toward the lack of prosperity found in China. US population is 246.1 million and we produce 47 times more goods and services (per capita) than the 1.1 billion people of China. This may be due to overpopulation contributing to diminished resources, food, natural forests, and increased erosion of the soil. Most of the resources we are currently using cannot be renewed after the next 100 years. Land area is diminishing, soil is eroding faster than replacement rates, 3 kcal of fossil fuel is expended to produce 1 kcal of food, natural gas is being depleted, oil supplies are limited to a 16 year supply, and groundwater is used faster than it can be replaced. Pollution (air, water, and soil) threatens these natural resources even more. The US must concentrate on the conversion from fossil fuel energy to solar energy, although much land is needed for solar energy systems. We may be able to increase our solar energy output 3-10 without affecting agriculture, and future fusion techniques may alleviate some of the fossil fuel pressures. Livestock manures could be used as fertilizers more often in order to decrease the waste of oil when synthetic fertilizers and pesticides are used. The ideal US population should be maintained at 40-100 million if we want to retain our current standard of living. PMID:12178968

  3. Population sizes and growth pressure responses of intestinal microfloras of deep-sea fish retrieved from the abyssal zone.

    PubMed

    Yano, Y; Nakayama, A; Yoshida, K

    1995-12-01

    The intestinal floras of seven deep-sea fish retrieved at depths of from 3,200 to 5,900 m were examined for population sizes and growth responses to pressure. Large populations of culturable bacteria, ranging from 1.1 x 10(sup6) to 3.6 x 10(sup8) cells per ml of contents, were detected when samples were incubated at conditions characteristic of those of the deep sea. Culturable cell counts at in situ pressures were greater than those at atmospheric pressure in all samples. Most of the strains isolated by the spread-plating method at atmospheric pressure later proved barophilic. Barophilic bacteria were the predominant inhabitants of the abyssal fish intestines. PMID:16535199

  4. QTL mapping in multiple populations and development stages reveals dynamic quantitative trait loci for fruit size in cucumbers of different market classes

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Fruit size is an important quality trait in cucumber of different market classes. The genetic and molecular basis of fruit size variations in cucumber is not well understood. In this study, we conducted QTL mapping of fruit size in cucumber using three mapping populations developed from cross betwee...

  5. Genetic Structure and Effective Population Sizes in European Red Deer (Cervus elaphus) at a Continental Scale: Insights from Microsatellite DNA.

    PubMed

    Zachos, Frank E; Frantz, Alain C; Kuehn, Ralph; Bertouille, Sabine; Colyn, Marc; Niedziałkowska, Magdalena; Pérez-González, Javier; Skog, Anna; Sprĕm, Nikica; Flamand, Marie-Christine

    2016-07-01

    We analyzed more than 600 red deer (Cervus elaphus) from large parts of its European distribution range at 13 microsatellite loci, presenting the first continent-wide study of this species using nuclear markers. Populations were clearly differentiated (overall F ST = 0.166, Jost's D est = 0.385), and the BAPS clustering algorithm yielded mainly geographically limited and adjacent genetic units. When forced into only 3 genetic clusters our data set produced a very similar geographic pattern as previously found in mtDNA phylogeographic studies: a western group from Iberia to central and parts of Eastern Europe, an eastern group from the Balkans to Eastern Europe, and a third group including the threatened relict populations from Sardinia and Mesola in Italy. This result was also confirmed by a multivariate approach to analyzing our data set, a discriminant analysis of principal components. Calculations of genetic diversity and effective population sizes (linkage disequilibrium approach) yielded the lowest results for Italian (Sardinia, Mesola; N e between 2 and 8) and Scandinavian red deer, in line with known bottlenecks in these populations. Our study is the first to present comparative nuclear genetic data in red deer across Europe and may serve as a baseline for future analyses of genetic diversity and structuring in this widespread ungulate. PMID:26912909

  6. Universal size effects for populations in group-outcome decision-making problems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borghesi, Christian; Hernández, Laura; Louf, Rémi; Caparros, Fabrice

    2013-12-01

    Elections constitute a paradigm of decision-making problems that have puzzled experts of different disciplines for decades. We study two decision-making problems, where groups make decisions that impact only themselves as a group. In both studied cases, participation in local elections and the number of democratic representatives at different scales (from local to national), we observe a universal scaling with the constituency size. These results may be interpreted as constituencies having a hierarchical structure, where each group of N agents, at each level of the hierarchy, is divided in about Nδ subgroups with δ≈1/3. Following this interpretation, we propose a phenomenological model of vote participation where abstention is related to the perceived link of an agent to the rest of the constituency and which reproduces quantitatively the observed data.

  7. [Mathematical simulation of the regulation of the size of the lymphoid population in relation to chronic lymphoid leukemia].

    PubMed

    Stepanova, N V; Feofanova, T V; Itkin, B Z

    1988-01-01

    A model was constructed of accumulation kinetics of labeled lymphocytes based on the experiments of long-term injection of 3H-thymidine label in vivo into the blood of healthy and suffering from chronic lympholeucosis animals. There was found an essential difference between the coefficients of reproduction and death of cells of the proliferating pool for the normal, initial and advanced stages of the disease. This served as a basis for the creation of the closed non-linear model of autoregulation of lymphoid population size describing different stages of leucosis development. PMID:3390484

  8. A log-linear model approach to estimation of population size using the line-transect sampling method

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, K.P.; Crain, B.R.

    1978-01-01

    The technique of estimating wildlife population size and density using the belt or line-transect sampling method has been used in many past projects, such as the estimation of density of waterfowl nestling sites in marshes, and is being used currently in such areas as the assessment of Pacific porpoise stocks in regions of tuna fishing activity. A mathematical framework for line-transect methodology has only emerged in the last 5 yr. In the present article, we extend this mathematical framework to a line-transect estimator based upon a log-linear model approach.

  9. Estimation of inbreeding and effective population size of full-blood Wagyu cattle registered with the American Wagyu Cattle Association.

    PubMed

    Scraggs, E; Zanella, R; Wojtowicz, A; Taylor, J F; Gaskins, C T; Reeves, J J; de Avila, J M; Neibergs, H L

    2014-02-01

    The objective of this research was to examine the population structure of full-blood (100%) Wagyu cattle registered in the United States with the American Wagyu Association, with the aim of estimating and comparing the levels of inbreeding from both pedigree and genotypic data. A total of 4132 full-blood Wagyu cattle pedigrees were assessed and used to compute the inbreeding coefficients (FIT and FST ) and the effective population size (Ne ) from pedigree data for the period 1994 to 2011. In addition to pedigree analysis, 47 full-blood Wagyu cattle representing eight prominent sire lines in the American Wagyu cattle population were genotyped using the Illumina BovineSNP50 BeadChip. Genotypic data were then used to estimate genomic inbreeding coefficients (FROH ) by calculating runs of homozygosity. The mean inbreeding coefficient based on the pedigree data was estimated at 4.80%. The effective population size averaged 17 between the years 1994 and 2011 with an increase of 42.9 in 2000 and a drop of 1.8 in 2011. Examination of the runs of homozygosity revealed that the 47 Wagyu cattle from the eight prominent sire lines had a mean genomic inbreeding coefficient (FROH ) estimated at 9.08% compared to a mean inbreeding coefficient based on pedigree data of 4.8%. These data suggest that the mean genotype inbreeding coefficient of full-blood Wagyu cattle exceeds the inbreeding coefficient identified by pedigree. Inbreeding has increased slowly at a rate of 0.03% per year over the past 17 years. Wagyu breeders should continue to utilize many sires from divergent lines and consider outcrossing to other breeds to enhance genetic diversity and minimize the adverse effects of inbreeding in Wagyu. PMID:24373025

  10. Genetic variation, relatedness, and effective population size of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska.

    PubMed

    Cronin, Matthew A; Amstrup, Steven C; Talbot, Sandra L; Sage, George K; Amstrup, Kristin S

    2009-01-01

    Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are unique among bears in that they are adapted to the Arctic sea ice environment. Genetic data are useful for understanding their evolution and can contribute to management. We assessed parentage and relatedness of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea, Alaska, with genetic data and field observations of age, sex, and mother-offspring and sibling relationships. Genotypes at 14 microsatellite DNA loci for 226 bears indicate that genetic variation is comparable to other populations of polar bears with mean number of alleles per locus of 7.9 and observed and expected heterozygosity of 0.71. The genetic data verified 60 field-identified mother-offspring pairs and identified 10 additional mother-cub pairs and 48 father-offspring pairs. The entire sample of related and unrelated bears had a mean pairwise relatedness index (r(xy)) of approximately zero, parent-offspring and siblings had r(xy) of approximately 0.5, and 5.2% of the samples had r(xy) values within the range expected for parent-offspring. Effective population size (N(e) = 277) and the ratio of N(e) to total population size (N(e)/N = 0.182) were estimated from the numbers of reproducing males and females. N(e) estimates with genetic methods gave variable results. Our results verify and expand field data on reproduction by females and provide new data on reproduction by males and estimates of relatedness and N(e) in a polar bear population. PMID:19633212

  11. Chronic exposure to polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons in natal habitats leads to decreased equilibrium size, growth, and stability of pink salmon populations.

    PubMed

    Heintz, Ron A

    2007-07-01

    The immediate and delayed effects of embryonic exposure to low levels of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been shown to reduce survival to maturity by 50% in exposed pink salmon populations. This suggests that chronically exposed populations could be extirpated over relatively few generations, but the effect of density dependence on extirpation rate is unknown. This study examines the interaction of PAH effects and randomly varying density dependence on a simulated population. The simulation derives from 70 years of observations made on a single pink salmon population and toxicity studies involving a hatchery population in the same watershed. Results from simulations involving exposure of 100% of the population to effects consistent with an aqueous PAH concentration of 18 nL/L indicate an 80% decrease in population productivity and an 11% probability of extinction after 35 generations. In contrast, population growth rate declined by only 5%. Further decreases in survival relative to that of observed PAH effects rapidly increase the probability of extinction. Data from these simulations demonstrate that, at low levels of exposure, density dependence can compensate for reduced population size and buffer the population against extinction. However, if equilibrium size is depressed sufficiently, random environmental variation overcomes the buffering effect of density dependence and extinction probability increases. These data demonstrate that extinction probability and population size are more sensitive measures of population effects than growth rate for wild populations regulated by density dependence. PMID:17695108

  12. Population sizes and group characteristics of Siberian Crane (Leucogeranus leucogeranus) and Hooded Crane (Grus monacha) in Poyang Lake Wetland

    PubMed Central

    SHAO, Ming-Qin; GUO, Hong; JIANG, Jian-Hong

    2014-01-01

    Both the Siberian Crane (Leucogeranus leucogeranus) and Hooded Crane (Grus monacha) have limited population sizes and are considered endangered by domestic Chinese and international agencies. To document the current size of their respective populations and characterize their groups, between October 2012 and April 2013 we undertook fieldwork at four nature reserve areas within the Poyang Lake wetlands. We divided Poyanghu National Nature Reserve (PYH) into the Wucheng (PWC) and Hengfeng areas (PHF), because each are each located in different counties. Our fieldwork showed that the Siberian Crane occurred mainly in PYH (364 in the PHF, 158 in the PWC) and the Nanjishan Wetland National Nature Reserve (NJS, with 200 individuals). The Hooded Crane was mainly distributed in PYH (302 in the PHF and 154 in the PWC). Family groups accounted for more than 50% of the total number of groups among both species, with Hooded Cranes forming more family groups than Siberian Cranes. Typically, these groups were formed of two adults with one offspring (Siberian Crane), and two adults with two offspring (Hooded Crane), with the mean family group size of the Siberian Crane and Hooded Crane being respectively 2.65±0.53 (n=43) and 3.09±0.86 (n=47) individuals per group. The mean collective group size of the Siberian Crane and Hooded Crane included 28.09±24.94 (n=23) and 28.94±27.97 (n=16) individuals per group, respectively, with the proportion of juveniles among Hooded Cranes being more than double that seen among the Siberian Cranes. PMID:25297076

  13. Results and evaluation of a survey to estimate Pacific walrus population size, 2006

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Speckman, S.G.; Chernook, V.I.; Burn, D.M.; Udevitz, M.S.; Kochnev, A.A.; Vasilev, A.; Jay, C.V.; Lisovsky, A.; Fischbach, A.S.; Benter, R.B.

    2011-01-01

    In spring 2006, we conducted a collaborative U.S.-Russia survey to estimate abundance of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens). The Bering Sea was partitioned into survey blocks, and a systematic random sample of transects within a subset of the blocks was surveyed with airborne thermal scanners using standard strip-transect methodology. Counts of walruses in photographed groups were used to model the relation between thermal signatures and the number of walruses in groups, which was used to estimate the number of walruses in groups that were detected by the scanner but not photographed. We also modeled the probability of thermally detecting various-sized walrus groups to estimate the number of walruses in groups undetected by the scanner. We used data from radio-tagged walruses to adjust on-ice estimates to account for walruses in the water during the survey. The estimated area of available habitat averaged 668,000 km2 and the area of surveyed blocks was 318,204 km2. The number of Pacific walruses within the surveyed area was estimated at 129,000 with 95% confidence limits of 55,000-507,000 individuals. Poor weather conditions precluded surveying in other areas; therefore, this value represents the number of Pacific walruses within about half of potential walrus habitat. ?? 2010 by the Society for Marine Mammalogy.

  14. Diversity, distribution and population size structure of deep Mediterranean gorgonian assemblages (Menorca Channel, Western Mediterranean Sea)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grinyó, Jordi; Gori, Andrea; Ambroso, Stefano; Purroy, Ariadna; Calatayud, Clara; Dominguez-Carrió, Carlos; Coppari, Martina; Lo Iacono, Claudio; López-González, Pablo J.; Gili, Josep-Maria

    2016-06-01

    Gorgonians are a key group of organisms in benthic marine communities with a wide bathymetric and geographical distribution. Although their presence on continental shelves and slopes has been known for more than 100 years, knowledge concerning the ecology of deep gorgonian species is still in a very preliminary stage. To overcome this situation, gorgonian assemblages located at 40-360 m depth were studied over a large geographical area on the continental shelf and upper slope of the Menorca Channel (Western Mediterranean Sea). A quantitative analysis of video transects recorded by a manned submersible and a remotely operated vehicle, were used to examine the diversity, distribution and demography of gorgonian species. Results showed high gorgonian diversity within this depth range (a total of nine species were observed) compared to Mediterranean coastal areas. Gorgonian assemblages on the continental shelf and upper slope were mostly monospecific (respectively 73% and 76% of occupied sampling units contained one single species), whereas shelf edge assemblages were highly multispecific (92% of occupied sampling units contained several species). This contrasts with the monospecificity of Mediterranean coastal gorgonian assemblages. Gorgonian populations on the continental shelf were mostly dominated by small colonies (88% of measured colonies) with few intermediate and large colonies (12% of measured colonies). In deeper areas small colonies were still dominant (60% of measured colonies), but intermediate and large colonies were much more abundant (40% of measured colonies). This suggests high recruitment rates on the continental shelf, but perturbations (trammel nets, long lines and strong storms) may limit the presence of intermediate and large colonies. Conversely, on the shelf edge and upper slope a more stable environment may allow colonies to reach larger dimensions. The identification and ecological characterization of these deep assemblages further extends

  15. Application of Network Scale Up Method in the Estimation of Population Size for Men Who Have Sex with Men in Shanghai, China

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Wan; Su, Hualin; Zhao, Yanping; Chen, Yue; Zhang, Tao; Zhang, Tiejun

    2015-01-01

    Background Men who have sex with men (MSM) are at high risk of HIV infection. For developing proper interventions, it is important to know the size of MSM population. However, size estimation of MSM populations is still a significant public health challenge due to high cost, hard to reach and stigma associated with the population. Objectives We aimed to estimate the social network size (c value) in general population and the size of MSM population in Shanghai, China by using the net work scale-up method. Methods A multistage random sampling was used to recruit participants aged from 18 to 60 years who had lived in Shanghai for at least 6 months. The “known population method” with adjustment of backward estimation and regression model was applied to estimate the c value. And the MSM population size was further estimated using an adjusted c value taking into account for the transmission effect through social respect level towards MSM. Results A total of 4017 participants were contacted for an interview, and 3907 participants met the inclusion criterion. The social network size (c value) of participants was 236 after adjustment. The estimated size of MSM was 36354 (95% CI: 28489–44219) for the male Shanghaies aged 18 to 60 years, and the proportion of MSM among the total male population aged 18 to 60 years in Shanghai was 0.28%. Conclusions We employed the network scale-up method and used a wide range of data sources to estimate the size of MSM population in Shanghai, which is useful for HIV prevention and intervention among the target population. PMID:26579708

  16. Risk, mobility or population size? Drivers of technological richness among contact-period western North American hunter-gatherers.

    PubMed

    Collard, Mark; Buchanan, Briggs; O'Brien, Michael J; Scholnick, Jonathan

    2013-11-19

    Identifying factors that influence technological evolution in small-scale societies is important for understanding human evolution. There have been a number of attempts to identify factors that influence the evolution of food-getting technology, but little work has examined the factors that affect the evolution of other technologies. Here, we focus on variation in technological richness (total number of material items and techniques) among recent hunter-gatherers from western North America and test three hypotheses: (i) technological richness is affected by environmental risk, (ii) population size is the primary determinant of technological richness, and (iii) technological richness is constrained by residential mobility. We found technological richness to be correlated with a proxy for environmental risk-mean rainfall for the driest month-in the manner predicted by the risk hypothesis. Support for the hypothesis persisted when we controlled for shared history and intergroup contact. We found no evidence that technological richness is affected by population size or residential mobility. These results have important implications for unravelling the complexities of technological evolution. PMID:24101622

  17. Risk, mobility or population size? Drivers of technological richness among contact-period western North American hunter–gatherers

    PubMed Central

    Collard, Mark; Buchanan, Briggs; O'Brien, Michael J.; Scholnick, Jonathan

    2013-01-01

    Identifying factors that influence technological evolution in small-scale societies is important for understanding human evolution. There have been a number of attempts to identify factors that influence the evolution of food-getting technology, but little work has examined the factors that affect the evolution of other technologies. Here, we focus on variation in technological richness (total number of material items and techniques) among recent hunter–gatherers from western North America and test three hypotheses: (i) technological richness is affected by environmental risk, (ii) population size is the primary determinant of technological richness, and (iii) technological richness is constrained by residential mobility. We found technological richness to be correlated with a proxy for environmental risk—mean rainfall for the driest month—in the manner predicted by the risk hypothesis. Support for the hypothesis persisted when we controlled for shared history and intergroup contact. We found no evidence that technological richness is affected by population size or residential mobility. These results have important implications for unravelling the complexities of technological evolution. PMID:24101622

  18. Effect of conservation efforts and ecological variables on waterbird population sizes in wetlands of the Yangtze River.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yong; Jia, Qiang; Prins, Herbert H T; Cao, Lei; de Boer, Willem Frederik

    2015-01-01

    Forage quality and availability, climatic factors, and a wetland's conservation status are expected to affect the densities of wetland birds. However, the conservation effectiveness is often poorly studied. Here, using twelve years' census data collected from 78 wetlands in the Yangtze River floodplain, we aimed to understand the effect of these variables on five Anatidae species, and evaluate the effectiveness of the conservation measures by comparing population trends of these species among wetlands that differ in conservations status. We showed that the slope angle of a wetland and the variation thereof best explain the differences in densities of four species. We also found that the population abundances of the Anatidae species generally declined in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain over time, with a steeper decline in wetlands with a lower protection status, indicating that current conservation policies might deliver benefits for wintering Anatidae species in China, as population sizes of the species were buffered to some extent against decline in numbers in wetlands with a higher level protection status. We recommend several protection measures to stop the decline of these Anatidae species in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain, which are of great importance for the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. PMID:26601785

  19. Effect of conservation efforts and ecological variables on waterbird population sizes in wetlands of the Yangtze River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yong; Jia, Qiang; Prins, Herbert H. T.; Cao, Lei; de Boer, Willem Frederik

    2015-11-01

    Forage quality and availability, climatic factors, and a wetland’s conservation status are expected to affect the densities of wetland birds. However, the conservation effectiveness is often poorly studied. Here, using twelve years’ census data collected from 78 wetlands in the Yangtze River floodplain, we aimed to understand the effect of these variables on five Anatidae species, and evaluate the effectiveness of the conservation measures by comparing population trends of these species among wetlands that differ in conservations status. We showed that the slope angle of a wetland and the variation thereof best explain the differences in densities of four species. We also found that the population abundances of the Anatidae species generally declined in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain over time, with a steeper decline in wetlands with a lower protection status, indicating that current conservation policies might deliver benefits for wintering Anatidae species in China, as population sizes of the species were buffered to some extent against decline in numbers in wetlands with a higher level protection status. We recommend several protection measures to stop the decline of these Anatidae species in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain, which are of great importance for the East Asian-Australasian Flyway.

  20. Effect of conservation efforts and ecological variables on waterbird population sizes in wetlands of the Yangtze River

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Yong; Jia, Qiang; Prins, Herbert H. T.; Cao, Lei; de Boer, Willem Frederik

    2015-01-01

    Forage quality and availability, climatic factors, and a wetland’s conservation status are expected to affect the densities of wetland birds. However, the conservation effectiveness is often poorly studied. Here, using twelve years’ census data collected from 78 wetlands in the Yangtze River floodplain, we aimed to understand the effect of these variables on five Anatidae species, and evaluate the effectiveness of the conservation measures by comparing population trends of these species among wetlands that differ in conservations status. We showed that the slope angle of a wetland and the variation thereof best explain the differences in densities of four species. We also found that the population abundances of the Anatidae species generally declined in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain over time, with a steeper decline in wetlands with a lower protection status, indicating that current conservation policies might deliver benefits for wintering Anatidae species in China, as population sizes of the species were buffered to some extent against decline in numbers in wetlands with a higher level protection status. We recommend several protection measures to stop the decline of these Anatidae species in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain, which are of great importance for the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. PMID:26601785

  1. Population size, cage area, and dominance rank effects on productivity and well-being of laying hens.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, D L; van Tienhoven, A; Gvaryahu, G

    1988-03-01

    The effect of two cage population sizes (four vs. six/cage) and two cage area treatments (316 cm2 vs. 406 cm2/bird) were compared in a nonconfounded design while maintaining feeder space constant (8.9 cm/bird) for egg production performances and behavioral and physiological indicators of well-being of laying hens. Egg production rates were determined for all members of each cage group (palpations at 48 to 50 wk) and on a cage group basis (20 to 60 wk). Heart weights, plasma corticosterone levels, durations of tonic immobility (TI), and plumage conditions were compared for top and bottom birds in the dominance ranks. Significant reductions in egg production were observed for low ranking hens in the high density (4 and 6/316-cm2) treatments. In addition, high ranking hens of the 6/316-cm2 treatment produced fewer eggs than high ranking hens in the 4/316-cm2 treatment. When high and low ranking individuals were housed in single-hen cages, egg production was improved relative to performances in the social environments. Heart weights of hens, as a percentage of body weight, were increased in the low ranking hens and for hens in the smaller cage size. Plasma corticosterone did not prove to be a useful indicator of well-being. Low ranking individuals had greater durations of TI but differences in feather condition were not detected. The results support the contention that appropriate population sizes and cage space allocations can be determined that will optimize the performance and welfare of layers in cage environments. PMID:3405919

  2. Monitoring Dolphins in an Urban Marine System: Total and Effective Population Size Estimates of Indo-Pacific Bottlenose Dolphins in Moreton Bay, Australia

    PubMed Central

    Ansmann, Ina C.; Lanyon, Janet M.; Seddon, Jennifer M.; Parra, Guido J.

    2013-01-01

    Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia is an area of high biodiversity and conservation value and home to two sympatric sub-populations of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops aduncus). These dolphins live in close proximity to major urban developments. Successful management requires information regarding their abundance. Here, we estimate total and effective population sizes of bottlenose dolphins in Moreton Bay using photo-identification and genetic data collected during boat-based surveys in 2008–2010. Abundance (N) was estimated using open population mark-recapture models based on sighting histories of distinctive individuals. Effective population size (Ne) was estimated using the linkage disequilibrium method based on nuclear genetic data at 20 microsatellite markers in skin samples, and corrected for bias caused by overlapping generations (Nec). A total of 174 sightings of dolphin groups were recorded and 365 different individuals identified. Over the whole of Moreton Bay, a population size N of 554±22.2 (SE) (95% CI: 510–598) was estimated. The southern bay sub-population was small at an estimated N = 193±6.4 (SE) (95% CI: 181–207), while the North sub-population was more numerous, with 446±56 (SE) (95% CI: 336–556) individuals. The small estimated effective population size of the southern sub-population (Nec = 56, 95% CI: 33–128) raises conservation concerns. A power analysis suggested that to reliably detect small (5%) declines in size of this population would require substantial survey effort (>4 years of annual mark-recapture surveys) at the precision levels achieved here. To ensure that ecological as well as genetic diversity within this population of bottlenose dolphins is preserved, we consider that North and South sub-populations should be treated as separate management units. Systematic surveys over smaller areas holding locally-adapted sub-populations are suggested as an alternative method for increasing ability to detect

  3. How People Actually Use Thermostats

    SciTech Connect

    Meier, Alan; Aragon, Cecilia; Hurwitz, Becky; Mujumdar, Dhawal; Peffer, Therese; Perry, Daniel; Pritoni, Marco

    2010-08-15

    Residential thermostats have been a key element in controlling heating and cooling systems for over sixty years. However, today's modern programmable thermostats (PTs) are complicated and difficult for users to understand, leading to errors in operation and wasted energy. Four separate tests of usability were conducted in preparation for a larger study. These tests included personal interviews, an on-line survey, photographing actual thermostat settings, and measurements of ability to accomplish four tasks related to effective use of a PT. The interviews revealed that many occupants used the PT as an on-off switch and most demonstrated little knowledge of how to operate it. The on-line survey found that 89% of the respondents rarely or never used the PT to set a weekday or weekend program. The photographic survey (in low income homes) found that only 30% of the PTs were actually programmed. In the usability test, we found that we could quantify the difference in usability of two PTs as measured in time to accomplish tasks. Users accomplished the tasks in consistently shorter times with the touchscreen unit than with buttons. None of these studies are representative of the entire population of users but, together, they illustrate the importance of improving user interfaces in PTs.

  4. Temporal trends in genetic data and effective population size support efficacy of management practices in critically endangered dusky gopher frogs (Lithobates sevosus).

    PubMed

    Hinkson, Kristin M; Richter, Stephen C

    2016-05-01

    Monitoring temporal changes in population genetic diversity and effective population size can provide vital information on future viability. The dusky gopher frog, Lithobates sevosus, is a critically endangered species found only in coastal Mississippi, with low genetic variability as a consequence of isolation and population size reduction. Conservation management practices have been implemented, but their efficacy has not been addressed. We genotyped individuals collected 1997-2014 to determine temporal trends in population genetic variation, structure, and effective size. Observed and expected heterozygosity and allelic richness revealed temporally stable, but low, levels of genetic variation. Positive levels of inbreeding were found in each year. There was weak genetic structure among years, which can be attributed to increased effects of genetic drift and inbreeding in small populations. L. sevosus exhibited an increase in effective population size, and currently has an estimated effective size of 33.0-58.6 individuals, which is approximately half the census size. This large ratio could possibly be explained by genetic compensation. We found that management practices have been effective at maintaining and improving effective size and genetic diversity, but that additional strategies need to be implemented to enhance viability of the species. PMID:27066242

  5. Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    King, Pat; Landahl, John

    This pamphlet has been prepared in response to a new problem, a rapidly increasing population, and a new need, population education. It is designed to help teachers provide their students with some basic population concepts with stress placed on the elements of decision making. In the first section of the pamphlet, some of the basic concepts of…

  6. Evaluations of duck habitat and estimation of duck population sizes with a remote-sensing-based system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cowardin, Lewis M.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Arnold, Phillip M.

    1995-01-01

    During 1987-90, we used high-altitude photography, aerial videography, counts, and models to estimate sizes of breeding populations of dabbling ducks (Anatinae) and duck production and to identify duck habitat on U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service land and easements and on private land in the prairie pothole region of the United States. The study area contained about 3.1 million wetland basins (28,490 km2). Wetland area (ha per km2) was highest on service-owned land; wetland-basin density was greatest on service easements. Temporary and seasonal wetlands were underrepresented and lakes were overrepresented on service-owned land. Seventy-eight percent of all basins were less than 0.41 ha. Cropland dominated private land. Pond density decreased from 4.4/km2 in 1987 to 3.4/km2 in 1990 and pond area, from 7.2 ha/km2 to 2.7 ha/km2. The density of the blue-winged teal was greatest (3.4 pairs/km2) and was followed in magnitude by those of the mallard (2.1 pairs/km2), the gadwall (1.8 pairs/km2), the northern pintail (0.8 pairs/km2), and the redhead (0.8 pairs/km2). Duck density was consistently highest on service-owned land. The decline of breeding-population sizes in 1987-90 closely corresponded to losses of pond numbers and pond area. The density of breeding pairs per pond was inversely related to pond density, suggesting that breeding ducks tended to concentrate on the remaining ponds as drought intensified. The production of recruits followed the same pattern as breeding-population sizes. We estimated that 2.5% of the ducklings hatched on service-owned land, which was 1.3% of the study area; 19.6% hatched on service easements, which were 14.2% of the study area; and 77.9% hatched on private land, which was 84.6% of the study area. Various sources of bias and sampling error and improvements to the system are discussed.

  7. The effect of life-history variation on the population size structure of a rocky intertidal snail ( Littorina sitkana)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rochette, Rémy; Dunmall, Karen; Dill, Lawrence M.

    2003-03-01

    On wave-sheltered shores of the northeastern Pacific, the population size structure of Littorina sitkana varies with intertidal height, as larger snails are mostly found only in the upper intertidal. This pattern has been attributed to high predation rates by crabs (and perhaps fish) on large snails inhabiting low-intertidal areas; i.e., large snails are presumed to be rare there simply because predators kill them. In this study we investigate the hypothesis that predation contributes to the shore-level size gradient displayed by L. sitkana by selecting for (or inducing) earlier sexual maturation and reduced somatic growth in low-shore snails relative to high-shore individuals. In the first part of our study, we carried out laboratory dissections, field experiments (mark-release-recapture and caging), and field surveys on a wave-protected shore in Bamfield Inlet, Barkley Sound (British Columbia, Canada). The principal results were: (1) adult survivorship was greater at higher, than at lower, intertidal level, (2) snails displayed a preference for their shore level of origin, (3) immature adults from the high intertidal displayed greater rates of somatic growth relative to immature adults from the low intertidal, and (4) low-shore snails matured at a smaller size than high-shore individuals. In the second part of the study, a large-scale survey showed intra-specific variation in size at sexual maturity (point 4 above) to be relatively consistent over time (winter of 1999 and 2001 for snails from our main study site) and space (13 different sites in winter 2001), although the magnitude of these differences varied greatly from shore to shore. Our results indicate that L. sitkana individuals inhabiting upper and lower parts of their intertidal range allocate resources differently to somatic and gonadal growth, an intra-specific difference that is best interpreted as a response to spatial and size-dependent variation in predation pressure. Taken together, results of