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Sample records for actuarial survival rate

  1. Human actuarial aging increases faster when background death rates are lower: a consequence of differential heterogeneity?

    PubMed

    Hawkes, Kristen; Smith, Ken R; Blevins, James K

    2012-01-01

    Many analyses of human populations have found that age-specific mortality rates increase faster across most of adulthood when overall mortality levels decline. This contradicts the relationship often expected from Williams' classic hypothesis about the effects of natural selection on the evolution of senescence. More likely, much of the within-species difference in actuarial aging is not due to variation in senescence, but to the strength of filters on the heterogeneity of frailty in older survivors. A challenge to this differential frailty hypothesis was recently posed by an analysis of life tables from historical European populations and traditional societies that reported variation in actuarial aging consistent with Williams' hypothesis after all. To investigate the challenge, we reconsidered those cases and aging measures. Here we show that the discrepancy depends on Ricklefs' aging rate measure, ω, which decreases as mortality levels drop because it is an index of mortality level itself, not the rate of increase in mortality with age. We also show unappreciated correspondence among the parameters of Gompertz-Makeham and Weibull survival models. Finally, we compare the relationships among mortality parameters of the traditional societies and the historical series, providing further suggestive evidence that differential heterogeneity has strong effects on actuarial aging.

  2. ANTEROCOD: actuarial survival curves applied to medical coding support for chronic diseases.

    PubMed

    Lecornu, L; Le Guillou, C; Le Saux, F; Hubert, M; Puentes, J; Cauvin, J M

    2010-01-01

    For the practitioner, choosing diagnosis codes is a non-intuitive operation. Mistakes are frequent, causing severe consequences on healthcare performance evaluation and funding. French physicians have to assign a code to all their activities and are frequently prone to these errors. Given that most of the time and particularly for chronic diseases indexed information is already available, we propose a tool named AnterOcod, in order to support the medical coding task. It suggests the list of most relevant plausible codes, predicted from the patient's earlier hospital stays, according to a set of previously utilized diagnosis codes. Our method applies the estimation of code reappearance rates, based on an equivalent approach to actuarial survival curves. Around 33% of the expected correct diagnosis codes were retrieved in this manner, after evaluating 998 discharge abstracts, significantly improving the coding task.

  3. Underlying theory of actuarial analyses.

    PubMed

    Benjamin, B

    1985-05-01

    The developments in theory governing the calculation of mortality rates for use in survival measurements working through the initial basic concept of exposure to risk to the later introduction of stochastic elements are reviewed. I have indicated the way in which actuaries and statisticians who work closely with those in the fields of medicine and biology have, by the exchange of methodologic ideas, come to an identity of approach. Recent new actuarial work and likely future developments in actuarial interests are reviewed.

  4. 77 FR 69850 - Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rate, and Annual Deductible...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-11-21

    ... actuarial rates for aged (age 65 and over) and disabled (under age 65) beneficiaries enrolled in Part B of...) and one- half of the expected average monthly cost of Part B for each disabled enrollee (under age 65... 2013 are $209.80 for enrollees age 65 and over and $235.50 for disabled enrollees under age 65. In...

  5. [Survival functions and life tables at the origins of actuarial mathematics].

    PubMed

    Spelta, D

    1997-01-01

    "In the determination of death probabilities of an insured subject one can use either statistical data or a mathematical function. In this paper a survey of the relationship between mortality tables and survival functions from the origins until the first half of the nineteenth century is presented. The author has tried to find the methodological grounds which have induced the actuaries to prefer either of these tools." (EXCERPT)

  6. Long‐Term Post‐CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions

    PubMed Central

    Carr, Brendan M.; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C.; Zhu, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background/aim Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short‐term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long‐term mortality. The added value of long‐term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long‐term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Methods Long‐term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c‐index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Results Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one‐, three‐, and five years, respectively (median follow‐up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long‐term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Conclusions Long‐term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long‐term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher‐risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow‐up care. More research appears warranted to refine long‐term CABG clinical risk models. doi: 10.1111/jocs.12665 (J Card Surg 2016;31:23–30) PMID:26543019

  7. An actuarial approach to comparing early stage and late stage lung cancer mortality and survival.

    PubMed

    Goldberg, Sara W; Mulshine, James L; Hagstrom, Dale; Pyenson, Bruce S

    2010-02-01

    Comparing the mortality characteristics of different cohorts is an essential process in the life insurance industry. Pseudodisease, lead-time bias, and length bias, which are critical to determining the value of cancer screening, have close analogues in life insurance company management, including the temporal impact of underwriting. Ratios of all-cause mortality rates for cancer cohorts relative to standard population mortality rates can provide insights into early stage and late stage mortality differences, differences by age, sex, race, and histology, and allow modeling of biases associated with early stage detection or screening protocols. The Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data set has characteristics that allow efficient application of actuarial techniques. We show the mortality burden associated with treated early stage lung cancer and that identifying all lung cancers at early stage could reduce US lung cancer deaths by over 70,000 per year.

  8. The case for an actuary.

    PubMed

    Renaud, Patrick N

    2002-12-01

    The author describes the role of the actuary, the need for qualified actuaries and how to find them. Qualified actuarial help, in the form of a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries (FSA), is necessary to ensure the best outcome when setting annual premium rates and realistic budgets for self-funded group benefit plans.

  9. Actuarial Valuation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Teachers Retirement System of Louisiana, Baton Rouge.

    This report presents the results of the actuarial valuation of assets and liabilities as well as funding requirements for the Teachers Retirement System of Louisiana as of June 30, 1996. Data reported include current funding, actuarial assets and valuation assets. These include the Louisiana State University Agriculture and Extension Service Fund,…

  10. Sexual Reconviction Rates in the United Kingdom and Actuarial Risk Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Craig, Leam A.; Browne, Kevin D.; Stringer, Ian; Hogue, Todd E.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: Assessing the risk of further offending behavior by adult sexual perpetrators of children is highly relevant and important to professionals involved in child protection. Recent progress in assessing risk in sexual offenders has established the validity of actuarial measures, although there continues to be some debate about the…

  11. Survival Analysis and Actuarial Parameters of Sternechus subsignatus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Adults.

    PubMed

    Guillermina Socías, María; Van Nieuwenhove, Guido; Murúa, María Gabriela; Willink, Eduardo; Liljesthröm, Gerardo Gustavo

    2016-04-01

    The soybean stalk weevil, Sternechus subsignatus Boheman 1836 (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), is a very serious soybean pest in the Neotropical region. Both adults and larvae feed on soybean, causing significant yield losses. Adult survival was evaluated during three soybean growing seasons under controlled environmental conditions. A survival analysis was performed using a parametric survival fit approach in order to generate survival curves and obtain information that could help optimize integrated management strategies for this weevil pest. Sex of the weevils, crop season, fortnight in which weevils emerged, and their interaction were studied regarding their effect on adult survival. The results showed that females lived longer than males, but both genders were actually long-lived, reaching 224 and 176 d, respectively. Mean lifetime (l50) was 121.88±4.56 d for females and 89.58±2.72 d for males. Although variations were observed in adult longevities among emergence fortnights and soybean seasons, only in December and January fortnights of the 2007–2008 season and December fortnights of 2009–2010 did the statistically longest and shortest longevities occur, respectively. Survivorship data (lx) of adult females and males were fitted to the Weibull frequency distribution model. The survival curve was type I for both sexes, which indicated that mortality corresponded mostly to old individuals.

  12. Actuarial Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Warren, Bette

    1982-01-01

    Details are provided of a program on actuarial training developed at the State University of New York (SUNY) at Binghamton through the Department of Mathematical Sciences. An outline of its operation, including a few statistics on students in the program, is included. (MP)

  13. Actuarial Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Warren, Bette

    1982-01-01

    Details are provided of a program on actuarial training developed at the State University of New York (SUNY) at Binghamton through the Department of Mathematical Sciences. An outline of its operation, including a few statistics on students in the program, is included. (MP)

  14. 76 FR 67572 - Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rate, and Annual Deductible...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-01

    ... for disabled enrollees. The standard monthly Part B premium rate for 2012 is $99.90, which is equal to...) of the Act, as added by section 4301 of the Omnibus Budget ] Reconciliation Act of 1990 (OBRA 90... Reconciliation Act of 1993 (OBRA 93) (Pub. L. 103-66) changed the premium basis to 50 percent of the monthly...

  15. Survival Rates for Thymus Cancer

    MedlinePlus

    ... Early Detection, Diagnosis, and Staging Survival Rates for Thymus Cancer Survival rates are often used by doctors ... Ask Your Doctor About Thymus Cancer? More In Thymus Cancer About Thymus Cancer Causes, Risk Factors, and ...

  16. Bayes and base rates: what is an informative prior for actuarial violence risk assessment?

    PubMed

    Harris, Grant T; Rice, Marnie E

    2013-01-01

    Bayes' theorem describes an axiomatic relationship among marginal and conditional proportions within a single "experiment." In many ways, it has been fruitful to greatly extend this idea to the task of drawing inferences from data much more generally. Commonly, what matters is how all prior knowledge is revised (or not) by new findings resulting in posterior (sometimes "subjective") probabilities. And, to address many important problems, it is sensible to conceive of probability in such subjective terms. However, some commentators in the domain of violence risk assessment have assumed an analogous axiomatic relationship among marginals (i.e., priors in the form of base rates) observed in one study and conditionals (i.e., posteriors in the form of revised rates) expected in a separate study or assessment context. We present examples from our own research to suggest this assumption is generally unwarranted and ultimately an unaddressed empirical matter.

  17. Survival rates in cystic fibrosis.

    PubMed Central

    Wilmott, R W; Tyson, S L; Dinwiddie, R; Matthew, D J

    1983-01-01

    Life tables were calculated for 273 British children with cystic fibrosis for the period 1974-9. There was a marked improvement in survival rates in the meconium ileus group compared with the 1969-73 data, but there was little improvement in patients presenting later with other symptoms. PMID:6639137

  18. Clinical versus actuarial judgment.

    PubMed

    Dawes, R M; Faust, D; Meehl, P E

    1989-03-31

    Professionals are frequently consulted to diagnose and predict human behavior; optimal treatment and planning often hinge on the consultant's judgmental accuracy. The consultant may rely on one of two contrasting approaches to decision-making--the clinical and actuarial methods. Research comparing these two approaches shows the actuarial method to be superior. Factors underlying the greater accuracy of actuarial methods, sources of resistance to the scientific findings, and the benefits of increased reliance on actuarial approaches are discussed.

  19. Capital offenders in Texas prisons: rates, correlates, and an actuarial analysis of violent misconduct.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Mark Douglas; Sorensen, Jon R

    2007-12-01

    This study analyzed the records of 136 recently incarcerated capital murder offenders in the initial phase (M = 2.37 years, range = 6-40 months) of their life sentences in the Texas Department of Criminal Justice. Prevalence rates of institutional violence were inversely related to severity: potentially violent misconduct (36.8%), assaultive violations (14%), serious assaults (5.1%), and homicides (0%). Consistent with prior studies, factors correlated with assaultive misconduct included age (inversely), prior prison confinement, and concurrent robbery or burglary in the capital offense. A simplified Burgess scale entitled the Risk Assessment Scale for Prison-Capital (RASP-Cap) was moderately successful in identifying varying levels of improbability of committing violence-related misconduct however defined (AUC = .715-.766).

  20. Teacher Survival Rates--A Current Look

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mark, Jonathan H.; Anderson, Barry D.

    1978-01-01

    To examine how survival rates change with time, each cohort of new entrants to the public school teaching profession between 1968 and 1976 was examined. Results replicated Charters' downward sloping survival curve, although the curve has shifted up steadily through time. The survival rate differential between men and women is decreasing over time.…

  1. The Casualty Actuarial Society: Helping Universities Train Future Actuaries

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boa, J. Michael; Gorvett, Rick

    2014-01-01

    The Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) believes that the most effective way to advance the actuarial profession is to work in partnership with universities. The CAS stands ready to assist universities in creating or enhancing courses and curricula associated with property/casualty actuarial science. CAS resources for university actuarial science…

  2. The Casualty Actuarial Society: Helping Universities Train Future Actuaries

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boa, J. Michael; Gorvett, Rick

    2014-01-01

    The Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) believes that the most effective way to advance the actuarial profession is to work in partnership with universities. The CAS stands ready to assist universities in creating or enhancing courses and curricula associated with property/casualty actuarial science. CAS resources for university actuarial science…

  3. Actually, What Is an Actuary?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oudshoorn, Susan; Finkelstein, Gary

    1991-01-01

    The actuarial profession is described to provide secondary school mathematics teachers insights into how actuaries use mathematics in solving real life problems. Examples are provided involving compound interest, the probability of dying, and inflation with computer modeling. (MDH)

  4. Sources of variation in waterfowl survival rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krementz, D.G.; Barker, R.J.; Nichols, J.D.

    1997-01-01

    Because of the need to manage hunted populations of waterfowl (Anatidae), biologists have studied many demographic traits of waterfowl by analyzing band recoveries. These analyses have produced the most extensive and best estimates of survival available for any group of birds. Using these data, we examined several factors that might explain variation among annual survival rates to explore large-scale patterns that might be useful in understanding waterfowl population dynamics. We found that geography, body mass, and tribe (i.e. phylogeny) were important in explaining variation in average waterfowl survival rates.

  5. Sources of variation in waterfowl survival rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krementz, D.G.; Barker, R.J.; Nichols, J.D.

    1997-01-01

    Because of the need to manage hunted populations of waterfowl (Anatidae), biologists have studied many demographic traits of waterfowl by analyzing band recoveries. These analyses have produced the most extensive and best estimates of survival available for any group of birds. Using these data, we examined several factors that might explain variation among annual survival rates to explore large-scale patterns that might be useful in understanding waterfowl population dynamics. We found that geography, body mass, and tribe (i.e. phylogeny) were important in explaining variation in average waterfowl survival rates.

  6. Actuarial senescence in a long-lived orchid challenges our current understanding of ageing.

    PubMed

    Dahlgren, Johan Petter; Colchero, Fernando; Jones, Owen R; Øien, Dag-Inge; Moen, Asbjørn; Sletvold, Nina

    2016-11-16

    The dominant evolutionary theory of actuarial senescence-an increase in death rate with advancing age-is based on the concept of a germ cell line that is separated from the somatic cells early in life. However, such a separation is not clear in all organisms. This has been suggested to explain the paucity of evidence for actuarial senescence in plants. We used a 32 year study of Dactylorhiza lapponica that replaces its organs each growing season, to test whether individuals of this tuberous orchid senesce. We performed a Bayesian survival trajectory analysis accounting for reproductive investment, for individuals under two types of land use, in two climatic regions. The mortality trajectory was best approximated by a Weibull model, showing clear actuarial senescence. Rates of senescence in this model declined with advancing age, but were slightly higher in mown plots and in the more benign climatic region. At older ages, senescence was evident only when accounting for a positive effect of reproductive investment on mortality. Our results demonstrate actuarial senescence as well as a survival-reproduction trade-off in plants, and indicate that environmental context may influence senescence rates. This knowledge is crucial for understanding the evolution of demographic senescence and for models of plant population dynamics.

  7. Survival rates in NYC in the era of combination ART.

    PubMed

    Fordyce, E James; Singh, Tejinder P; Nash, Denis; Gallagher, Brian; Forlenza, Susan

    2002-05-01

    Since the advent of combined antiretroviral therapy in 1996, substantial decreases in HIV-related morbidity and mortality have been observed in the United States and other developed countries. To assess the effects on overall survival and for specific AIDS-defining illnesses (ADIs), survival among persons with AIDS (PWAs) in New York City (NYC) before and after the introduction of combination therapy was investigated. Survival among 79,878 PWAs diagnosed between 1990 and 1998 and reported through March 2001 was estimated. Cumulative survival at 24 months among PWAs was estimated by actuarial methods, and Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for covariates was used to estimate the relative hazard (RH) of death for specific ADIs over time. Overall cumulative survival at 24 months increased from 43% among PWAs diagnosed during 1990-1995 to 76% for those diagnosed 1996-1998. Improving survival for all ADIs was found among PWAs diagnosed after 1995, but changes for immunoblastic lymphoma, primary lymphoma of the brain, and invasive cervical cancer were only moderate and were statistically (p >.05) insignificant. Burkitt lymphoma, immunoblastic lymphoma, invasive cervical cancer, and primary lymphoma of the brain had the highest RH of death among PWAs diagnosed after 1995. Substantial improvements in survival after 1995 were found for all PWAs but varied by gender, race, risk, socioeconomic status, and specific ADIs. Consistent with other studies, neoplastic ADIs have shown less improvement than other diseases after 1995. The relatively poor outcome of PWAs with neoplastic diseases requires further investigation.

  8. Actuarial assessment of risk among sex offenders.

    PubMed

    Harris, Grant T; Rice, Marnie E

    2003-06-01

    The appraisal of risk among sex offenders has seen recent advances through the advent of actuarial assessments. Statistics derived from Relative Operating Characteristics (ROCs) permit the comparison of predictive accuracies achieved by different instruments even among samples that exhibit different base rates of recidivism. Such statistics cannot, however, solve problems introduced when items from actuarial tools are omitted, when reliability is low, or when there is high between-subject variability in the duration of the follow-up. We present empirical evidence suggesting that when comprehensive actuarial tools (VRAG and SORAG) are scored with high reliability, without missing items, and when samples of offenders have fixed and equal opportunity for recidivism, predictive accuracies are maximized near ROC areas of 0.90. Although the term "dynamic" has not been consistently defined, such accuracies leave little room for further improvement in long-term prediction by dynamic risk factors. We address the mistaken idea that long-term, static risk levels have little relevance for clinical intervention with sex offenders. We conclude that highly accurate prediction of violent criminal recidivism can be achieved by means of highly reliable and thorough scoring of comprehensive multi-item actuarial tools using historical items (at least until potent therapies are identified). The role of current moods, attitudes, insights, and physiological states in causing contemporaneous behavior notwithstanding, accurate prediction about which sex offenders will commit at least one subsequent violent offense can be accomplished using complete information about past conduct.

  9. Survival rates in dysvascular lower limb amputees.

    PubMed

    Kulkarni, J; Pande, S; Morris, J

    2006-01-01

    To assess the 5-year and 10-year survival rates of major (above ankle disarticulation level) dysvascular lower limb amputees attending a sub-regional Disablement Services Centre (DSC) specialising in amputee rehabilitation. Also to investigate the association between survival rates, cause of dysvascularity, level of amputation, smoking status and occupational status. The study was undertaken in sub-regional DSC for amputee rehabilitation covering a base population of about 3.5million people. Over 80% of lower limb amputations were done for dysvascularity (peripheral vascular disease, diabetic or combination). All these patients were followed up in the DSC for their prosthetic/amputee rehabilitation. Modular case records of 201 consecutive patients from 1994 to 1995 who had diagnosis of dysvascularity as the cause of major lower limb amputations, were scrutinised regarding their 10-year survival; demographic details, level of lower limb amputations, Above Knee (AK=Transfemoral), Below Knee (BK=Transtibial), smoking status, occupational status, healing of the stump at first assessment, cause of amputation and association of these factors with survival rates. Of 201 individuals with either AK or BK amputations, 60% (121) had AK amputations and 67% (134) were males, the mean age was 69years of age. Sixty-seven percent (97) had history of smoking, either current 43% (62) or prior 24% (35) smoking, and 59% (68) were skilled or non-skilled manual workers. Fifty-one percent (99) had diagnosis of peripheral vascular disease, whilst 34% (65) had combination of peripheral vascular disease and diabetes, diabetes on its own in 4% (7). In 12% (23) other causes were noted such as embolism, acute ischaemia, venous ulcers, etc. Regarding stumps healing at first assessment, healing was noted in 54% (109) whilst stump was unhealed in 46% (92). The median survival was 48months. Using Cox proportional hazards regression to identify association with survival, the hazard ratio (HR) was

  10. Actuarial contributions to life table analysis.

    PubMed

    Lew, E A

    1985-05-01

    The correct principles for the construction of life tables and more particularly select life tables were developed by actuaries in England in the first half of the 19th century. Actuaries explored the phenomenon of selection not only between the insured and annuitants but also in the general population, distinguishing among initial temporary selection, antiselection, and class selection. The conclusion was reached early that no such thing as an unselected population exists. Group life insurance experience among the actively employed has been shown to provide a more appropriate standard of expected mortality than general population death rates in studies of medical impairments and occupational hazards at ages under 65 years. Mortality rates derived from the Cancer Prevention Study can serve as a useful standard of expected mortality when the objective is determination of excess mortality compared with ostensibly healthy persons at ages 65 years and older.

  11. Survival Rates for Selected Childhood Brain and Spinal Cord Tumors

    MedlinePlus

    ... Diagnosis, and Staging Survival Rates for Selected Childhood Brain and Spinal Cord Tumors Survival rates are often ... Childhood Brain and Spinal Cord Tumors More In Brain and Spinal Cord Tumors in Children About Brain ...

  12. Mortality in neurofibromatosis 1: in North West England: an assessment of actuarial survival in a region of the UK since 1989.

    PubMed

    Evans, D Gareth R; O'Hara, Catherine; Wilding, Anna; Ingham, Sarah L; Howard, Elizabeth; Dawson, John; Moran, Anthony; Scott-Kitching, Vilka; Holt, Felicity; Huson, Susan M

    2011-11-01

    Neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) is a comparatively common autosomal dominant disorder. However, relatively few studies have assessed lifetime risk; and information about the effect of NF1 on mortality remains uncertain. NF1 patients were identified using The North West regional family Genetic Register, which covers the 4.1 million people living in North West England, including the regions of Greater Manchester, Cheshire and Cumbria. Data relating to tumours and malignancies were obtained from The North West Cancer Intelligence Service. Death data for the general North West population were obtained from the Office of National Statistics. We identified 1186 individuals with NF1, of whom 1023 lived within the strict regional boundaries (constituting a region of North West England bound by The Pennines to the east and Irish Sea to the west, but excluding the conurbation of Liverpool (Merseyside) and the Wirral peninsula) and 131 had died. MPNST and glioma were found to be the two most common causes of reduced life expectancy among NF1 patients. In Kaplan-Meier analyses the median survival for NF1 patients was shown to be 71.5 years, with women living ∼7.4 years longer than men. On average both men and women lived ∼8 years less than their counterparts in the general population. Reduction in life expectancy for NF1 patients was found to be much lower (8 years) than the previously estimated 15-year decrease. Limitations relating to the underreporting of NF1 on death certificates were once again highlighted and should be considered in future investigations.

  13. Clinical versus actuarial predictions of violence of patients with mental illnesses.

    PubMed

    Gardner, W; Lidz, C W; Mulvey, E P; Shaw, E C

    1996-06-01

    This study compared the accuracy of an actuarial procedure for the prediction of community violence by patients with mental illness with the accuracy of clinicians' ratings of concern about patients' violence. Data came from a study in which patients were followed in the community for 6 months after having been seen in a psychiatric emergency room. Accuracy of actuarial prediction was estimated retrospectively, with a statistical correction for capitalization on chance. Actuarial prediction had lower rates of false-positive and false-negative errors than clinical prediction. The seriousness of the violence correctly identified by the actuarial predictor (the true positives) was similar to the seriousness identified by clinicians. Actuarial predictions based only on patients' histories of violence were more accurate than clinical predictions, as were actuarial predictions that did not use information about histories.

  14. Spatial variation in senescence rates in a bird metapopulation.

    PubMed

    Holand, H; Kvalnes, T; Gamelon, M; Tufto, J; Jensen, H; Pärn, H; Ringsby, T H; Sæther, B-E

    2016-07-01

    Investigating factors which affect the decline in survival with age, i.e. actuarial senescence, is important in order to understand how demographic rates vary in wild populations. Although the evidence for the occurrence of actuarial senescence in wild populations is growing, very few studies have compared actuarial senescence rates between wild populations of the same species. We used data from a long-time study of demography of house sparrows (Passer domesticus) to investigate differences in rates of actuarial senescence between habitats and sub-populations. We also investigated whether rates of actuarial senescence differed between males and females. We found that rates of actuarial senescence showed large spatial variation. We also found that the onset of actuarial senescence varied between sub-populations. However, these differences were not significantly explained by a general difference in habitat type. We also found no significant difference in actuarial senescence rates between males and females. This study shows that senescence rates in natural populations may vary significantly between sub-populations and that failing to account for such differences may give a biased estimate of senescence rates of a species.

  15. Improved Estimates of Cancer-Specific Survival Rates From Population-Based Data

    PubMed Central

    Ries, Lynn A. G.; Mariotto, Angela B.; Reichman, Marsha E.; Ruhl, Jennifer; Cronin, Kathleen A.

    2010-01-01

    Background Accurate estimates of cancer survival are important for assessing optimal patient care and prognosis. Evaluation of these estimates via relative survival (a ratio of observed and expected survival rates) requires a population life table that is matched to the cancer population by age, sex, race and/or ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and ideally risk factors for the cancer under examination. Because life tables for all subgroups in a study may be unavailable, we investigated whether cause-specific survival could be used as an alternative for relative survival. Methods We used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program for 2 330 905 cancer patients from January 1, 1992, through December 31, 2004. We defined cancer-specific deaths according to the following variables: cause of death, only one tumor or the first of multiple tumors, site of the original cancer diagnosis, and comorbidities. Estimates of relative survival and cause-specific survival that were derived by use of an actuarial method were compared. Results Among breast cancer patients who were white, black, or of Asian or Pacific Islander descent and who were older than 65 years, estimates of 5-year relative survival (107.5%, 106.6%, and 103.0%, respectively) were higher than estimates of 5-year cause-specific survival (98.6%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 98.4% to 98.8%; 97.4%, 95% CI = 96.2% to 98.2%; and 99.2%, 95% CI = 98.4%, 99.6%, respectively). Relative survival methods likely underestimated rates for cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx (eg, for white cancer patients aged ≥65 years, relative survival = 54.2%, 95% CI = 53.1% to 55.3%, and cause-specific survival = 60.1%, 95% CI = 59.1% to 60.9%) and the lung and bronchus (eg, for black cancer patients aged ≥65 years, relative survival = 10.5%, 95% CI = 9.9% to 11.2%, and cause-specific survival = 11.9%, 95% CI = 11.2 % to 12.6%), largely because of mismatches between the population with these diseases and

  16. A look inside the actuarial black box.

    PubMed

    Math, S E; Youngerman, H

    1992-12-01

    Hospital executives often rely on actuaries (and their "black boxes") to determine self-insurance program liabilities and funding contributions. Typically, the hospital supplies the actuary with a myriad of statistics, and eventually the hospital receives a liability estimate and recommended funding level. The mysterious actuarial calculations that occur in between data reporting and receipt of the actuary's report are akin to a black box--a complicated device whose internal mechanism is hidden from or mysterious to the user.

  17. Survival rates after serious immersion accidents in childhood.

    PubMed

    Pearn, J

    1978-01-01

    A study of childhood survival rates, after loss of consciousness in fresh water, has been undertaken. Age-specific, sex-specific and site-specific survival rates for childhood fresh water immersion accidents are reported for the first time. The overall survival rate, after loss of consciousness in the water was 0.49; swimming pool and domestic bath tub serious immersion accidents have a survival rate of 0.60 compared with a rate of 0.05 for similar immersion accidents in creeks and rivers. Young male schoolboys have the lowest potential survival (0.20 or less) of any group. Survival rates were significantly higher during the winter (0.86) than during the warmer months (survival rate of 0.49). This gives a quantitative expression to the protection from cerebral anoxia afforded by body chilling which is not extreme. Survival rates have increased significantly over the 5 year period 1971--1975; it is considered that this is due to public education campaigns of the potential danger of water to children. The use of survival rates to measure factors which modify the pathophysiology of human drowning and near-drowning is discussed.

  18. Impact of actuarial assumptions on pension costs: A simulation analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusof, Shaira; Ibrahim, Rose Irnawaty

    2013-04-01

    This study investigates the sensitivity of pension costs to changes in the underlying assumptions of a hypothetical pension plan in order to gain a perspective on the relative importance of the various actuarial assumptions via a simulation analysis. Simulation analyses are used to examine the impact of actuarial assumptions on pension costs. There are two actuarial assumptions will be considered in this study which are mortality rates and interest rates. To calculate pension costs, Accrued Benefit Cost Method, constant amount (CA) modification, constant percentage of salary (CS) modification are used in the study. The mortality assumptions and the implied mortality experience of the plan can potentially have a significant impact on pension costs. While for interest rate assumptions, it is inversely related to the pension costs. Results of the study have important implications for analyst of pension costs.

  19. Survival rates of American woodcock wintering along the Atlantic coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krementz, D.G.; Seginak, J.T.; Smith, D.R.; Pendleton, G.W.

    1994-01-01

    Because American woodcock (Scolopax minor) populations have been declining, we attached radio transmitters to woodcock at coastal plain sites to determine if survival during winter was involved in the decline. Sites were in Georgia (1982-84, 1989-92), South Carolina (1988-89), and Virginia (1991-92). Survival rates were not different between age or sex classes. Survival rates differed (P = 0.003) among years. Daily survival rates were lowest (P = 0.030, S = 0.987) during 1982-83 in Georgia and highest (P = 0.004, S = 0.999) during 1990-91 in Georgia than in the other years and locations combined (S = 0.996). We attributed all mortality to raptors and mammals. Compared with other periods of the year, winter was a time of low survival for woodcock. Lower survival rates were possibly a cause of population decline.

  20. Survival and recovery rates of American woodcock banded in Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krementz, David G.; Hines, James E.; Luukkonen, David R.

    2003-01-01

    American woodcock (Scolopax minor) population indices have declined since U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) monitoring began in 1968. Management to stop and/or reverse this population trend has been hampered by the lack of recent information on woodcock population parameters. Without recent information on survival rate trends, managers have had to assume that the recent declines in recruitment indices are the only parameter driving woodcock declines. Using program MARK, we estimated annual survival and recovery rates of adult and juvenile American woodcock, and estimated summer survival of local (young incapable of sustained flight) woodcock banded in Michigan between 1978 and 1998. We constructed a set of candidate models from a global model with age (local, juvenile, adult) and time (year)-dependent survival and recovery rates to no age or time-dependent survival and recovery rates. Five models were supported by the data, with all models suggesting that survival rates differed among age classes, and 4 models had survival rates that were constant over time. The fifth model suggested that juvenile and adult survival rates were linear on a logit scale over time. Survival rates averaged over likelihood-weighted model results were 0.8784 +/- 0.1048 (SE) for locals, 0.2646 +/- 0.0423 (SE) for juveniles, and 0.4898 +/- 0.0329 (SE) for adults. Weighted average recovery rates were 0.0326 +/- 0.0053 (SE) for juveniles and 0.0313 +/- 0.0047 (SE) for adults. Estimated differences between our survival estimates and those from prior years were small, and our confidence around those differences was variable and uncertain. juvenile survival rates were low.

  1. Survival rates of cervical cancer patients in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Muhamad, Nor Asiah; Kamaluddin, Muhammad Amir; Adon, Mohd Yusoff; Noh, Mohamed Asyraf; Bakhtiar, Mohammed Faizal; Ibrahim Tamim, Nor Saleha; Mahmud, Siti Haniza; Aris, Tahir

    2015-01-01

    Cervical cancer is the most common malignant cancer of the female reproductive organs worldwide. Currently, cervical cancer can be prevented by vaccination and detected at an early stage via various screening methods. Malaysia, as a developing country faces a heavy disease burden of cervical cancer as it is the second most common cancer among Malaysian women. This population based study was carried out to fulfil the primary aim of determining the survival rates of Malaysian women with cervical cancer and associated factors. Data were obtained from two different sources namely, the Malaysian National Cancer Registry (MNCR) and National Health Informatics Centre (NHIC) from 1st January 2000 to 31st December 2005. Kaplan Meier analyses were conducted to identify the overall survival rates and median survival time. Differences in survival among different ethnic and age group were compared using the log-rank test. A total of 5,859 patients were included. The median survival time for cervical cancer in this study was 65.8 months and the 5-year survival rate was 71.1%. The overall observed survival rates at 1, 3 and 5 years were 94.1%, 79.3% and 71.1% respectively. The log-rank test finding also showed that there were significant differences in the 5-year survival rate among different ethnic groups. Malays had the lowest survival rate of 59.2% followed by Indians (69.5%) and Chinese (73.8%). The overall 5-year survival rate among patients with cervical cancer in Malaysia is relatively good. Age and ethnic groups remain as significant determining factors for cervical cancer survival rate.

  2. Clinical versus Actuarial Predictions of Violence in Patients with Mental Illness.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gardner, William; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Compared accuracy of an actuarial procedure for the prediction of community violence by patients with mental illnesses to accuracy of clinicians' concern ratings of patient violence. Data came from a study of 357 pairs of patients seen in a psychiatric emergency room. Actuarial predictions based only on patients' histories of violence were more…

  3. Clinical versus Actuarial Predictions of Violence in Patients with Mental Illness.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gardner, William; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Compared accuracy of an actuarial procedure for the prediction of community violence by patients with mental illnesses to accuracy of clinicians' concern ratings of patient violence. Data came from a study of 357 pairs of patients seen in a psychiatric emergency room. Actuarial predictions based only on patients' histories of violence were more…

  4. Colorectal Cancer in Jordan: Survival Rate and Its Related Factors

    PubMed Central

    Arqoub, Kamal H.; Tarawneh, Mohammad R.; Al-zaghal, Marwan J.; Subih, Hadil S.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives. To estimate the survival rate of colorectal cancer (CRC) and determine its predictors among Jordanian patients who were diagnosed in the period of 2005–2010. Methods. This study was based on Jordan cancer registry. All CRC cases that were registered in cancer registry during 2005–2010 were analyzed using the survival analysis. The last date for follow-up was 1st Oct 2016. Results. A total of 3005 patients with CRC were registered during 2005–2010. The overall 5-year and 10-year survival rates for patients with CRC were 58.2% and 51.8%, respectively. The 5-year survival rate decreased significantly from 60.4% for the age <50 years to 49.3% for the age ≥70 years (p < 0.005). The 5-year survival rate was 72.1% for the localized stage, 53.8% for the regional stage, and 22.6% for the distant metastasis. In the multivariate analysis, the only factors that were significantly associated with survival were age, grade, stage, and location of tumor. Conclusions. The overall 5-year and ten-year survival rates for CRC were 58.2% and 51.8%, respectively. Increased age, poor differentiation, advanced cancer stage, and right-sided cancers were associated with lower survival rates. Screening strategies are needed for early detection of colon adenomas and colorectal cancer in Jordan. PMID:28458690

  5. Comment on 'Are survival rates for northern spotted owls biased?'

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Franklin, A.B.; Nichols, J.D.; Anthony, R.G.; Burnham, K.P.; White, Gary C.; Forsman, E.D.; Anderson, D.R.

    2006-01-01

    Loehle et al. recently estimated survival rates from radio-telemetered northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina (Merriam, 1898)) and suggested that survival rates estimated for this species from capture-recapture studies were negatively biased, which subsequently resulted in the negatively biased estimates of rates of population change (lambda) reported by Anthony et al. (Wildl. Monogr. No. 163, pp. 1-47 (2006)). We argue that their survival estimates were inappropriate for comparison with capture-recapture estimates because (i) the manner in which they censored radio-telemetered individuals had the potential to positively bias their survival estimates, (ii) their estimates of survival were not valid for evaluating bias, and (iii) the size and distribution of their radiotelemetry study areas were sufficiently different from capture-recapture study areas to preclude comparisons. In addition, their inferences of negative bias in rates of population change estimated by Anthony et al. were incorrect and reflected a misunderstanding about those estimators.

  6. Sex offenders and actuarial risk assessments: ethical considerations.

    PubMed

    Campbell, Terence W

    2003-01-01

    When assessing the recidivism risk of previously convicted sex offenders, the relevant ethical standards and practice guidelines obligate psychologists to acknowledge numerous limits related to their data and conclusions. For the actuarial instruments used in these assessments, the highest rates of classification accuracy are associated with greater specificity compared with sensitivity. Selecting cut-off scores to maximize sensitivity results in an inordinate frequency of false positive classifications. Attempts at maximizing specificity create an undesirable frequency of false negative classifications.Unfortunately, adjusted actuarial assessment cannot remedy these problems created by the sensitivity-specificity tradeoff. As an unstandardized procedure, the accuracy of adjusted actuarial assessment is severely limited. Consequently, civil proceedings for previously convicted sexual offenders rely on assessments of very limited accuracy. Undertaking these assessments, therefore, may be inconsistent with relevant ethical standards and practice guidelines.

  7. Estimating survival rates with age-structure data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Udevitz, M.S.; Ballachey, B.E.

    1998-01-01

    We developed a general statistical model that provides a comprehensive framework for inference about survival rates based on standing age-structure and ages-at-death data. Previously available estimators are maximum likelihood under the general model, but they use only 1 type of data and require the assumption of a stable age structure and a known population growth rate. We used the general model to derive new survival rate estimators that use both types of data and require only the assumption of a stable age structure or a known population growth rate. Our likelihood-based approach allows use of standard model-selection procedures to test hypotheses about age-structure stability, population growth rates, and age-related patterns in survival. We used this approach to estimate survival rates for female sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Prince William Sound, Alaska.

  8. Teacher Survival in Oregon School Districts: First Results of a State-Wide Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Charters, W.W., Jr.

    The careers of 799 male and 1,265 female teachers employed in Oregon school districts were traced for 4 years from 1962 to 1966 to determine the teachers' survival rates. The primary method of analysis chosen was an actuarial approach which involves construction of a survival curve showing numbers of teachers surviving after each period of time…

  9. Estimating survival rates from banding of adult and juvenile birds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, D.H.

    1974-01-01

    The restrictive assumptions required by most available methods for estimating survival probabilities render them unsuitable for analyzing real banding data. A model is proposed which allows survival rates and recovery rates to vary with the calendar year, and also allows juveniles to have rates different from adults. In addition to survival rates and recovery rates, the differential vulnerability factors of juveniles relative to adults are estimated. Minimum values of the variances of the estimators are also given. The new procedure is applied to sets of duck and goose data in which reasonably large numbers of adult and juvenile birds were banded. The results are shown to be generally comparable to those procured by other methods, but, in addition, insight into the extent of annual variation is gained. Combining data from adults and juveniles also increases the effective sample size, since the juveniles are assumed to enter the adult age class after surviving their initial year.

  10. Survival rates of birds of tropical and temperate forests: will the dogma survive?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Karr, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Klimkiewicz, M.K.; Brawn, J.D.

    1990-01-01

    Survival rates of tropical forest birds are widely assumed to be high relative to the survival rates of temperate forest birds. Much life-history theory is based on this assumption despite the lack of empirical data to support it. We provide the first detailed comparison of survival rates of tropical and temperate forest birds based on extensive data bases and modern capture-recapture models. We find no support for the conventional wisdom. Because clutch size is only one component of reproductive rate, the frequently assumed, simple association between clutch size and adult survival rates should not necessarily be expected. Our results emphasize the need to consider components of fecundity in addition to clutch size when comparing the life histories of tropical and temperate birds and suggest similar considerations in the development of vertebrate life-history theory.

  11. Actuarial and actual analysis of surgical results: empirical validation.

    PubMed

    Grunkemeier, G L; Anderson, R P; Starr, A

    2001-06-01

    This report validates the use of the Kaplan-Meier (actuarial) method of computing survival curves by comparing 12-year estimates published in 1978 with current assessments. It also contrasts cumulative incidence curves, referred to as "actual" analysis in the cardiac-related literature with Kaplan-Meier curves for thromboembolism and demonstrates that with the former estimate the percentage of events that will actually occur.

  12. Prostate cancer: net survival and cause-specific survival rates after multiple imputation.

    PubMed

    Morisot, Adeline; Bessaoud, Faïza; Landais, Paul; Rébillard, Xavier; Trétarre, Brigitte; Daurès, Jean-Pierre

    2015-07-28

    Estimations of survival rates are diverse and the choice of the appropriate method depends on the context. Given the increasing interest in multiple imputation methods, we explored the interest of a multiple imputation approach in the estimation of cause-specific survival, when a subset of causes of death was observed. By using European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC), 20 multiply imputed datasets were created and analyzed with a Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equation (MICE) algorithm. Then, cause-specific survival was estimated on each dataset with two methods: Kaplan-Meier and competing risks. The two pooled cause-specific survival and confidence intervals were obtained using Rubin's rules after complementary log-log transformation. Net survival was estimated using Pohar-Perme's estimator and was compared to pooled cause-specific survival. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was performed to test the robustness of our constructed multiple imputation model. Cause-specific survival performed better than net survival, since this latter exceeded 100 % for almost the first 2 years of follow-up and after 9 years whereas the cause-specific survival decreased slowly and than stabilized at around 94 % at 9 years. Sensibility study results were satisfactory. On our basis of prostate cancer data, the results obtained by cause-specific survival after multiple imputation appeared to be better and more realistic than those obtained using net survival.

  13. Survival and Recurrence Rate after Treatment for Primary Spinal Sarcomas

    PubMed Central

    Cho, Wonik

    2013-01-01

    Objective We have limited understanding on the presentation and survival of primary spinal sarcomas. The survival, recurrence rate, and related prognostic factors were investigated after treatment for primary sarcomas of the spine. Methods Retrospective analysis of medical records and radiological data was done for 29 patients in whom treatment was performed due to primary sarcoma of the spine from 2000 to 2010. As for treatment method, non-radical operation, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy were simultaneously or sequentially combined. Overall survival (OS), progression free survival (PFS), ambulatory function, and pain status were analyzed. In addition, factors affecting survival and recurrence were analyzed : age (≤42 or ≥43), gender, tumor histologic type, lesion location (mobile spine or rigid spine), weakness at diagnosis, pain at diagnosis, ambulation at diagnosis, initial treatment, radiation therapy, kind of irradiation, surgery, chemotherapy and distant metastasis. Results Median OS was 60 months, the recurrence rate was 79.3% and median PFS was 26 months. Patients with distant metastasis showed significantly shorter survival than those without metastasis. No factors were found to be significant relating to recurrence. Prognostic factor associated with walking ability was the presence of weakness at diagnosis. Conclusion Primary spinal sarcomas are difficult to cure and show high recurrence rate. However, the development of new treatment methods is improving survival. PMID:23826479

  14. Developing an Actuarial Track Utilizing Existing Resources

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rodgers, Kathy V.; Sarol, Yalçin

    2014-01-01

    Students earning a degree in mathematics often seek information on how to apply their mathematical knowledge. One option is to follow a curriculum with an actuarial emphasis designed to prepare students as an applied mathematician in the actuarial field. By developing only two new courses and utilizing existing courses for Validation by…

  15. Generalized procedures for testing hypotheses about survival or recovery rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Williams, B.K.

    1989-01-01

    Comparisons of survival or recovery rates from different time periods or geographic regions may be difficult to accomplish using the Z-tests suggested by Brownie et al. (1985). We propose a general Chi-square statistic that addresses an unambiguous null hypothesis of homogeneity among several survival or recovery rates. With this statistic, specific hypotheses of differences in rates can be simultaneously tested using contrasts. If necessary, a posteriori multiple comparisons can also be conducted that incorporate an adjustment for Type I error.

  16. Prognostic factors on survival rate of fingers replantation

    PubMed Central

    Lima, José Queiroz; Carli, Alberto De; Nakamoto, Hugo Alberto; Bersani, Gustavo; Crepaldi, Bruno Eiras; de Rezende, Marcelo Rosa

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the factors that influence the survival rate of replantation and revascularization of the thumb and/or fingers. Methods: We included fifty cases treated in our department from May 2012 to October 2013 with total or partial finger amputations, which had blood perfusion deficit and underwent vascular anastomosis. The parameters evaluated were: age, gender, comorbidities, trauma, time and type of ischemia, mechanism, the injured area, number of anastomosed vessels and use of vein grafts. The results were statistically analyzed and type I error value was set at p <0.05 . Results: Fifty four percent of the 50 performed replantation survived. Of 15 revascularizations performed, the survival rate was 93.3%. The only factor that affected the survival of the amputated limb was the necessity of venous anastomosis. Conclusion: We could not establish contraindications or absolute indications for the replantation and revascularization of finger amputations in this study. Level of Evidence III, Retropective Study. PMID:26327788

  17. Survival rates of some terrestrial microorganisms under simulated space conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koike, J.; Oshima, T.; Koike, K. A.; Taguchi, H.; Tanaka, R.; Nishimura, K.; Miyaji, M.

    1992-10-01

    In connection with planetary quarantine, we have been studying the survival rates of nine species of terrestrial microorganisms (viruses, bacteria, yeasts, fungi, etc.) under simulated interstellar conditions. If common terrestrial microorganisms cannot survive in space even for short periods, we can greatly reduce expenditure for sterilizing space probes. The interstellar environment in the solar system has been simulated by low temperature, high vacuum (77 k, 4 × 10-6 torr), and protons irradiation from a Van de Graaff generator. After exposure to a barrage of protons corresponding to about 250 years of irradiation in solar space, Tobacco mosaic virus. Bacillus subtilis spores, Aspergillus niger spores, and Clostridium mangenoti spores showed survival rates of 82%, 45%, 28%, and 25%, respectively. Furthermore, pathogenic Candida albicans showed 7% survival after irradiation corresponding to about 60 years in space.

  18. Effect of lead poisoning on spectacled eider survival rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grand, James B.; Flint, Paul L.; Petersen, Margaret R.; Moran, Christine L.

    1998-01-01

    Spectacled eider (Somateria fischeri) populations on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, declined rapidly through the 1980s, and low adult female survival was suggested as the likely cause of the decline. We used mark-resighting techniques to study annual survival rates of adult female spectacled eiders at 2 sites on the Y-K Delta during 1993-96. Our data suggest survival rates may differ among sites. However, a model fit to a subset of data on females for which we knew lead levels in blood suggests lead exposure influences survival. Adult females exposed to lead prior to hatching their eggs survived at a much lower rate (0.44 ?? 0.10) each year than females not exposed to lead before hatch (0.78 ?? 0.05). We suggest most mortality from lead exposure occurs over winter, and the related reduction in adult survival may be impeding recovery of local populations. We encourage managers to curtail input of lead shot into the environment.

  19. Temporal variation in survival and recovery rates of lesser scaup

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arnold, Todd W.; Afton, Alan D.; Anteau, Michael J.; Koons, David N.; Nicolai, Chris

    2016-01-01

    Management of lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) has been hindered by access to reliable data on population trajectories and vital rates. We conducted a Bayesian analysis of historical (1951–2011) band-recovery data throughout North America to estimate annual survival and recovery rates for juvenile and adult male and female lesser scaup to determine if increasing harvest or declining survival rates have contributed to population changes and to determine if harvest has been primarily additive or compensatory. Annual recovery rates were low, ranging from 1% to 4% for adults and 2% to 10% for juveniles during most years, with trend models indicating that recovery rates have declined through time for all age–sex classes. Annual survival (mid-Aug to mid-Aug) averaged 0.402 (σ ̂ 0.043) for juvenile males, 0.416 (σ ̂ 0.067) for juvenile females, 0.689 (σ ̂ 0.109) for adult males, and 0.602 (σ ̂ 0.115) for adult females, where σ ̂ represents an estimate of annual process variation in each survival rate. Annual survival rates exhibited no evidence of long-term declines or negative correlations with annual recovery rates (i.e., an index of harvest intensity) for any age–sex class, suggesting that declining fecundity was the most likely explanation for population declines during 1975–2005. We conclude that hunting mortality played a minor role in affecting population dynamics of lesser scaup and waterfowl managers could take a less cautious approach in managing harvest, especially if recruiting or maintaining waterfowl hunters are viewed as important management objectives.

  20. Survival rates and predictors of survival among colorectal cancer patients in a Malaysian tertiary hospital.

    PubMed

    Magaji, Bello Arkilla; Moy, Foong Ming; Roslani, April Camilla; Law, Chee Wei

    2017-05-18

    Colorectal cancer is the third most commonly diagnosed malignancy and the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death globally. It is the second most common cancer among both males and females in Malaysia. The economic burden of colorectal cancer is likely to increase over time owing to its current trend and aging population. Cancer survival analysis is an essential indicator for early detection and improvement in cancer treatment. However, there was a scarcity of studies concerning survival of colorectal cancer patients as well as its predictors. Therefore, we aimed to determine the 1-, 3- and 5-year survival rates, compare survival rates among ethnic groups and determine the predictors of survival among colorectal cancer patients. This was an ambidirectional cohort study conducted at the University Malaya Medical Centre (UMMC) in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. All Malaysian citizens or permanent residents with histologically confirmed diagnosis of colorectal cancer seen at UMMC from 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2010 were included in the study. Demographic and clinical characteristics were extracted from the medical records. Patients were followed-up until death or censored at the end of the study (31st December 2010). Censored patients' vital status (whether alive or dead) were cross checked with the National Registration Department. Survival analyses at 1-, 3- and 5-year intervals were performed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Log-rank test was used to compare the survival rates, while Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was carried out to determine the predictors of 5-year colorectal cancer survival. Among 1212 patients, the median survival for colorectal, colon and rectal cancers were 42.0, 42.0 and 41.0 months respectively; while the 1-, 3-, and 5-year relative survival rates ranged from 73.8 to 76.0%, 52.1 to 53.7% and 40.4 to 45.4% respectively. The Chinese patients had the lowest 5-year survival compared to Malay and Indian patients. Based on the 814

  1. Actuarial analysis of the risk of undergoing repeat cardiac valve replacement.

    PubMed

    Rutledge, R; Applebaum, R E; Kim, J B; Engler, M B; Engler, M M

    1984-09-01

    One thousand five hundred ninety-eight patients who underwent cardiac valve replacement were reviewed. One hundred fifty-two patients (10 percent) required a second valve replacement. The indications for repeat valve replacement were prosthetic valve dysfunction in 53 patients (35 percent), development of a new valvular lesion in 46 patients (30 percent), simple closure of a perivalvular leak in 14 patients (9 percent), change of the valve poppet in 13 patients (8 percent), severe hemolysis or emboli in 21 patients (14 percent), and prosthetic valve endocarditis in 5 patients (3 percent). The mean preoperative New York Health Association functional class improved from 3 to 1.5 in the nonreoperated patients and from 2.9 to 1.8 in patients who underwent a second valve replacement. Similarly, the mean cardiac index improved from 2.5 to 2.9 and from 2.5 to 2.8 in nonreoperated and reoperated patients, respectively. The operative mortality rate was 14 percent in the nonreoperated patients and 16 percent at second operation in the reoperated patients. Using actuarial techniques, the risk of repeat valve replacement was 1 to 4 percent per year. Long-term survival was compared between groups. Using actuarial techniques, the estimated survival rates at 1, 5, and 10 years were 89 percent, 69 percent, and 52 percent, respectively in nonreoperated patients and 87 percent, 60 percent, and 37 percent in reoperated patients. This study has documented the excellent improvement in functional and hemodynamic state after second cardiac valve replacement. The operative mortality and long-term survival rates were similar to those of the nonreoperated patients. Patients having repeat cardiac valve replacement can expect good improvement in length and quality of life.

  2. Survival rate of Astra Tech implants with maxillary sinus lift.

    PubMed

    Yoon, Wook-Jae; Jeong, Kyung-In; You, Jae-Seek; Oh, Ji-Su; Kim, Su-Gwan

    2014-02-01

    The aim of this study was to retrospectively evaluate the clinical survival rate of Astra Tech implants in the maxillary molar region performed with sinus lift and bone graft. Ninety-nine Astra Tech implants (Osseospeed) placed in the maxillary molar region using sinus lift from September 2009 to February 2012 were selected with a minimum follow-up period of 1 year. The height of alveolar bone, sinus approach technique, bone material and implant survival rate were evaluated. Of the 99 implants, the survival rate was 90.9%; 8 implants failed within 1 year after implant placement, and 1 implant failed 1 year after implant loading. All failed implants were placed with sinus lift simultaneously. The average height of alveolar bone before implant placement was 6.9 mm, while the height of alveolar bone of failed implants was 2.1 mm, on average. Astra Tech implants placed in the maxillary molar region had generally good survival rates, but the relationship between reduced pre-implant alveolar bone height and implant failure requires further attention.

  3. Improving survival rates after civilian gunshot wounds to the brain.

    PubMed

    Joseph, Bellal; Aziz, Hassan; Pandit, Viraj; Kulvatunyou, Narong; O'Keeffe, Terence; Wynne, Julie; Tang, Andrew; Friese, Randall S; Rhee, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Gunshot wounds to the brain are the most lethal of all firearm injuries, with reported survival rates of 10% to 15%. The aim of this study was to determine outcomes in patients with gunshot wounds to the brain, presenting to our institution over time. We hypothesized that aggressive management can increase survival and the rate of organ donation in patients with gunshot wounds to the brain. We analyzed all patients with gunshot wounds to the brain presenting to our level 1 trauma center over a 5-year period. Aggressive management was defined as resuscitation with blood products, hyperosmolar therapy, and/or prothrombin complex concentrate (PCC). The primary outcome was survival and the secondary outcome was organ donation. There were 132 patients with gunshot wounds to the brain, and the survival rates increased incrementally every year, from 10% in 2008 to 46% in 2011, with the adoption of aggressive management. Among survivors, 40% (16 of 40) of the patients had bi-hemispheric injuries. Aggressive management with blood products (p = 0.02) and hyperosmolar therapy (p = 0.01) was independently associated with survival. Of the survivors, 20% had a Glasgow Coma Scale score ≥ 13 at hospital discharge. In patients who died (n = 92), 56% patients were eligible for organ donation, and they donated 60 organs. Aggressive management is associated with significant improvement in survival and organ procurement in patients with gunshot wounds to the brain. The bias of resource use can no longer be used to preclude trauma surgeons from abandoning aggressive attempts to save patients with gunshot wound to the brain. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  4. The seven-year cumulative survival rate of Osstem implants

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Young-Kyun; Kim, Bum-Su; Yun, Pil-Young; Mun, Sang-Un; Yi, Yang-Jin; Jeong, Kyung-In

    2014-01-01

    Objectives This study was performed to analyze the cumulative survival rate of Osstem implants (Osstem Implant Co., Ltd.) over a seven-year period. Materials and Methods A total of 105 patients who had 467 Osstem implants that were placed at the Section of Dentistry, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital (Seongnam, Korea) from June 2003 through December 2005 were analyzed. The life table method and a cross-tubulation analysis, log rank test were used to evaluate the survival curve and the influence that the prognostic factors. The prognostic factors, i.e., age and gender of patients, diameter and length, type of implants, bone graft history and loading time were determined with a Cox proportional hazard model based on logistic regression analysis. Results The seven-year cumulative survival rate of Osstem implants was 95.37%. The Cox proportional hazard model revealed that the following factors had a significant influence on survival rate; increased diameter, reduced prosthetic loading period and performance of bone grafting. Conclusion The osstem implants showed satisfactory results over the seven-year study period. PMID:24868503

  5. 20 CFR 901.2 - Eligibility to perform actuarial services.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    .... 901.2 Section 901.2 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS.... (a) Enrolled actuary. Subject to the standards of performance set forth in subpart C of this part, any individual who is an enrolled actuary as defined in § 901.1(g) may perform actuarial...

  6. 26 CFR 301.6059-1 - Periodic report of actuary.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Periodic report of actuary. 301.6059-1 Section...-1 Periodic report of actuary. (a) In general. The actuarial report described in this section must be... funding deficiency (as defined in section 412(a)) to zero, (4) A statement by the enrolled actuary...

  7. Classification accuracy of actuarial risk assessment instruments.

    PubMed

    Neller, Daniel J; Frederick, Richard I

    2013-01-01

    Users of commonly employed actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) hope to generate numerical probability statements about risk; however, ARAI manuals often do not explicitly report data that are essential for understanding the classification accuracy of the instruments. In addition, ARAI manuals often contain data that have the potential for misinterpretation. The authors of the present article address the accurate generation of probability statements. First, they illustrate how the reporting of numerical probability statements based on proportions rather than predictive values can mislead users of ARAIs. Next, they report essential test characteristics that, to date, have gone largely unreported in ARAI manuals. Then they discuss a graphing method that can enhance the practice of clinicians who communicate risk via numerical probability statements. After the authors review several strategies for selecting optimal cut-off scores, they show how the graphing method can be used to estimate positive predictive values for each cut-off score of commonly used ARAIs, across all possible base rates. They also show how the graphing method can be used to estimate base rates of violent recidivism in local samples.

  8. Do age-specific survival patterns of wild boar fit current evolutionary theories of senescence?

    PubMed

    Gamelon, Marlène; Focardi, Stefano; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Gimenez, Olivier; Bonenfant, Christophe; Franzetti, Barbara; Choquet, Rémi; Ronchi, Francesca; Baubet, Eric; Lemaître, Jean-François

    2014-12-01

    Actuarial senescence is widespread in age-structured populations. In growing populations, the progressive decline of Hamiltonian forces of selection with age leads to decreasing survival. As actuarial senescence is overcompensated by a high fertility, actuarial senescence should be more intense in species with high reproductive effort, a theoretical prediction that has not been yet explicitly tested across species. Wild boar (Sus scrofa) females have an unusual life-history strategy among large mammals by associating both early and high reproductive effort with potentially long lifespan. Therefore, wild boar females should show stronger actuarial senescence than similar-sized related mammals. Moreover, being polygynous and much larger than females, males should display higher senescence rates than females. Using a long-term monitoring (18 years) of a wild boar population, we tested these predictions. We provided clear evidence of actuarial senescence in both sexes. Wild boar females had earlier but not stronger actuarial senescence than similar-sized ungulates. Both sexes displayed similar senescence rates. Our study indicates that the timing of senescence, not the rate, is associated with the magnitude of fertility in ungulates. This demonstrates the importance of including the timing of senescence in addition to its rate to understand variation in senescence patterns in wild populations. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  9. CAFFEINE IMPROVES HEART RATE WITHOUT IMPROVING SEPSIS SURVIVAL

    PubMed Central

    Bauzá, Gustavo; Remick, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Caffeine is consumed on a daily basis for its nervous system stimulant properties and is a global adenosine receptor antagonist. Since adenosine receptors have been found to play a major role in regulating the immune response to a septic insult, we investigated if caffeine consumption prior to a septic insult would alter immunological and physiological responses, as well as survival. Methods Two separate experimental designs were employed, both using outbred female ICR mice. In the first experiment mice were administered 20mg/kg of caffeine (equal to 2–3 cups of coffee for a human) or normal saline intraperitoneally at the time of cecal ligation and puncture (CLP). Immunological parameters including cytokines and local cell recruitment measured. In the second experiment caffeine (10mg/kg/hr) was delivered continuously for 24 hours via a subcutaneous infusion pump placed the day prior to CLP and hemodynamic parameters were examined. In both experiments survival was followed for five days. Results A single dose of caffeine at the initiation of sepsis did not alter survival. This single dose of caffeine did significantly increase in plasma levels of the chemokine KC six hours after the onset of sepsis compared to septic mice given normal saline. There were no changes in IL-6 or IL-10 levels in the caffeine groups. Peritoneal lavages performed 24 hours post-CLP showed no difference in the levels of IL-6, TNF, KC, MIP-1, IL-10 or the IL-1 receptor antagonist between caffeine and normal saline treated mice. Additionally, the lavages yielded similar numbers of cells (4.1×106 vehicle vs. 6.9×106 caffeine) and bacterial colony forming units (CFU, 4.1 million CFU vehicle vs. 2.8 million CFU caffeine). In the infusion group, caffeine also did not alter survival. However, caffeine infusion did increase heart rate prior to CLP, and prevented the decline in heart rate after CLP. Conclusion Caffeine increased heart rate in mice but does not impact cytokine

  10. Choosing the 'best' plan in a health insurance exchange: actuarial value tells only part of the story.

    PubMed

    Lore, Ryan; Gabel, Jon R; McDevitt, Roland; Slover, Michael

    2012-08-01

    In the health insurance exchanges that will come online in 2014, consumers will be able to compare health plans with respect to actuarial value, or the percentage of health care costs that a plan would pay for a standard population. This analysis illustrates the out-of-pocket costs that might result from plans with various plan designs and actuarial values. We find that average out-of-pocket expense declines as actuarial values rise, but two plans with similar actuarial values can produce very different outcomes for a given person. The overall affordability of a plan also will be influenced by age rating, income-related premium subsidies, and out-of-pocket subsidies. Actuarial value is a useful starting point for selecting a plan, but it does not pinpoint which plan will produce the best overall value for a particular person.

  11. Epidemiological Data and Survival Rate of Removable Partial Dentures.

    PubMed

    Moreno, Amália; Haddad, Marcela Filié; Goiato, Marcelo Coelho; Rocha, Eduardo Passos; Assunção, Wirley Gonçalves; Filho, Humberto Gennari; Santos, Emerson Gomes Dos; Sonego, Mariana Vilela; Santos, Daniela Micheline Dos

    2016-05-01

    The use of removable partial denture (RPD) is considered as low-cost and common treatment option to rehabilitate edentulous areas. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological data of patients rehabilitated with removable partial denture (RPD) in order to assess treatment survival rate and failures. Epidemiological data and medical records of patients treated with RPD between 2007 and 2012 at the RPD discipline of a Brazilian University (Aracatuba Dental School- UNESP) were evaluated as well as dental records of patients who underwent RPD treatments (fabrication or repairs) between 2000 and 2010. Factors such as gender, age, presence of systemic disease, main complaint, edentulous arch, period and cause of denture replacement and the prosthesis characteristics were recorded. The chi-square test was used to assess the differences between the variables and the Kaplan Meyer to assess the survival of the RPDs evaluated. A total of 324 maxillary RPD and 432 mandibular RPD were fabricated. Most of the patients were women aging 41 to 60-year-old. The number of mandibular RPD Kennedy class I (26%) was statistically higher for the maxillary arch (p<.05). There was no association between main complaint to gender or the presence of systemic disease. The lingual plate was the most common major connector used in the mandible (32%). The main reason for altering the design of replaced RPDs were changes during treatment plan. The number of patients who require RPD is large; most of RPDs are Kennedy Class I. A good treatment plan is very important for achieving a positive treatment outcome, and it is strictly related to the survival rate.

  12. Epidemiological Data and Survival Rate of Removable Partial Dentures

    PubMed Central

    Moreno, Amália; Haddad, Marcela Filié; Rocha, Eduardo Passos; Assunção, Wirley Gonçalves; Filho, Humberto Gennari; Santos, Emerson Gomes Dos; Sonego, Mariana Vilela; Santos, Daniela Micheline Dos

    2016-01-01

    Introduction The use of removable partial denture (RPD) is considered as low-cost and common treatment option to rehabilitate edentulous areas. Aim This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological data of patients rehabilitated with removable partial denture (RPD) in order to assess treatment survival rate and failures. Materials and Methods Epidemiological data and medical records of patients treated with RPD between 2007 and 2012 at the RPD discipline of a Brazilian University (Aracatuba Dental School- UNESP) were evaluated as well as dental records of patients who underwent RPD treatments (fabrication or repairs) between 2000 and 2010. Factors such as gender, age, presence of systemic disease, main complaint, edentulous arch, period and cause of denture replacement and the prosthesis characteristics were recorded. The chi-square test was used to assess the differences between the variables and the Kaplan Meyer to assess the survival of the RPDs evaluated. Results A total of 324 maxillary RPD and 432 mandibular RPD were fabricated. Most of the patients were women aging 41 to 60-year-old. The number of mandibular RPD Kennedy class I (26%) was statistically higher for the maxillary arch (p<.05). There was no association between main complaint to gender or the presence of systemic disease. The lingual plate was the most common major connector used in the mandible (32%). The main reason for altering the design of replaced RPDs were changes during treatment plan. Conclusion The number of patients who require RPD is large; most of RPDs are Kennedy Class I. A good treatment plan is very important for achieving a positive treatment outcome, and it is strictly related to the survival rate. PMID:27437367

  13. Relations between radiotherapy resources and breast cancer patient survival rates.

    PubMed

    Mochimaru, Yuko; Ohno, Yuko; Numasaki, Hodaka; Theshima, Teruki; Shibuya, Hitoshi

    2010-01-01

    In Japan, the number of patients that have been treated with radiotherapy (RT), particularly those with breast cancer, has increased in the past decade, and is expected to double in the next decade. There is, however, a shortage of RT resources, particularly personnel, which represents a social problem. The shortage of RT resources might cause a difference in survival rate among treated patients. This study analyzed the characteristics of RT resources in RT facilities from Osaka based on the Japanese Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology (JASTRO) database with principle component analysis and cluster analysis. In addition, the relation between RT resources and treatment outcome of breast cancer patients was investigated by linking together Osaka Cancer Registry (OCR) and JASTRO data via a stratified key cord. By using the linked dataset it was shown that the prognosis of breast cancer patients was highly correlated with the scale of RT resources available at the RT facilities collaterally. From cluster analysis, four groups were identified based on RT facility information. The breast cancer survival rates for localized stage patients obtained in classified hospital groups showed a similar pattern, however, large differences (up to 20%) were seen in regional stage patients. Additional findings were: RT facilities with less than 1 radiation oncologist had the poorest outcome; RT was performed primarily at University hospitals; and differences in RT resources within the RT facilities had an effect on breast cancer patient prognosis in Osaka, Japan.

  14. Men and women show similar survival rates after breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Bender, Paulo Franscisco Mascarenhas; de Oliveira, Letícia Lima; Costa, Célia Regina; de Aguiar, Suzana Sales; Bergmann, Anke; Thuler, Luiz Claudio Santos

    2017-04-01

    To compare the disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) rates of men and women undergoing treatment for breast cancer. A retrospective cohort study of patients with breast cancer diagnosed and treated at the Cancer Hospital III of the National Cancer Institute of Brazil, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, between 1999 and 2013. Male breast cancer cases were matched for age, year of diagnosis, and clinical staging to three female cases (1:3). Patient characteristics were abstracted from hospital records and medical charts. Cases were analyzed using descriptive statistics, and comparisons between the genders were performed using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression analysis with 95% confidence intervals. The study population comprised 98 men and 294 women. There were significant differences (p < 0.05) between the genders for marital status, alcohol consumption, smoking, presence of hypertension and other comorbidities, histological type of tumor, expression of estrogen receptors, progesterone receptors, human epidermal growth factor receptor-type 2, type of breast surgery, neoadjuvant chemotherapy, adjuvant radiotherapy, and use of palliative bisphosphonate therapy. Five- and 10-year DFS rates were, respectively, 80.0 and 51.4% for men and 71.4 and 63.5% for women (p = 0.245), and 5- and 10-year OS rates were, respectively, 65.0 and 47.5% for men and 56.5 and 41.4% for women (p = 0.221). There was no significant difference in prognosis (DFS and OS rates) between the genders, but significant differences in sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were detected between male and female breast cancer cases.

  15. Strategic Curricular Decisions in Butler University's Actuarial Science Major

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilson, Christopher James

    2014-01-01

    We describe specific curricular decisions employed at Butler University that have resulted in student achievement in the actuarial science major. The paper includes a discussion of how these decisions might be applied in the context of a new actuarial program.

  16. Strategic Curricular Decisions in Butler University's Actuarial Science Major

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilson, Christopher James

    2014-01-01

    We describe specific curricular decisions employed at Butler University that have resulted in student achievement in the actuarial science major. The paper includes a discussion of how these decisions might be applied in the context of a new actuarial program.

  17. Starting an Actuarial Program with Existing Resources

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Paul T.

    2014-01-01

    Many institutions wish to offer a path for students pursuing actuarial careers but lack the student demand to offer new courses or hire additional faculty. Fortunately, a program training students to enter the profession can often be constructed using existing courses and well-informed advising.

  18. Recruiting and Advising Challenges in Actuarial Science

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Case, Bettye Anne; Guan, Yuanying Michelle; Paris, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    Some challenges to increasing actuarial science program size through recruiting broadly among potential students are identified. Possible solutions depend on the structures and culture of the school. Up to three student cohorts may result from partition of potential students by the levels of academic progress before program entry: students…

  19. Recruiting and Advising Challenges in Actuarial Science

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Case, Bettye Anne; Guan, Yuanying Michelle; Paris, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    Some challenges to increasing actuarial science program size through recruiting broadly among potential students are identified. Possible solutions depend on the structures and culture of the school. Up to three student cohorts may result from partition of potential students by the levels of academic progress before program entry: students…

  20. 26 CFR 300.7 - Enrollment of enrolled actuary fee.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Enrollment of enrolled actuary fee. 300.7... AND ADMINISTRATION USER FEES § 300.7 Enrollment of enrolled actuary fee. (a) Applicability. This section applies to the initial enrollment of enrolled actuaries with the Joint Board for the Enrollment...

  1. 75 FR 63505 - Renewal of Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-10-15

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Renewal of Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries. ACTION: Renewal of Advisory Committee. ] SUMMARY: The Joint Board for the...

  2. Actuarial considerations of medical malpractice evaluations in M&As.

    PubMed

    Frese, Richard C

    2014-11-01

    To best project an actuarial estimate for medical malpractice exposure for a merger and acquisition, a organization's leaders should consider the following factors, among others: How to support an unbiased actuarial estimation. Experience of the actuary. The full picture of the organization's malpractice coverage. The potential for future loss development. Frequency and severity trends.

  3. 29 CFR 4231.10 - Actuarial calculations and assumptions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 9 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Actuarial calculations and assumptions. 4231.10 Section... MULTIEMPLOYER PLANS § 4231.10 Actuarial calculations and assumptions. (a) Most recent valuation. All calculations required by this part must be based on the most recent actuarial valuation as of the date...

  4. Comparison of social support content within online communities for high- and low-survival-rate cancers.

    PubMed

    Buis, Lorraine R; Whitten, Pamela

    2011-08-01

    People experiencing cancer use the Internet for many reasons, particularly for social support. This study sought to determine how social support content within online support communities for different cancers varied according to cancer survival rate. A quantitative content analysis was conducted on 3717 posts from eight online communities focused on cancers with high and low 5-year relative survival rates. Using Optimal Matching Theory, we predicted that low-survival-rate communities would have more emotional support content than high-survival-rate communities, and high-survival-rate communities would have more informational support content than low-survival-rate communities. Emotional support content was consistently more common than informational support. Overall, high-survival-rate communities had a greater proportion of posts containing emotional support content (75%) than low-survival-rate communities (66%) (χ1 = 20.89 [n = 2235], P < .001). Furthermore, low-survival-rate communities had a greater proportion of posts containing informational support content (46%) than high-survival-rate communities (36%) (χ1 = 21.13 [n = 2235], P< .001). Although the relationships between survival rate and support types were significant, they were not as hypothesized. Deviations from theoretically predicted results suggest that individuals experiencing low-survival-rate cancers may have a greater desire for informational support online than individuals experiencing high-survival-rate cancers.

  5. Survival rate of preserved cultures contained in baker's vaccine.

    PubMed

    Kornacki, K; Klebukowska, I; Sienkiewicz, J

    2001-01-01

    The studies comprised the preparation and preservation, by the method of spray-drying, of baker's vaccine composed of lactic acid bacteria. The selection of particular strains was conducted taking into consideration the fermentation activity and growth dynamics of Lactobacillus rods isolated from plant material. Mixed vaccine was composed of chosen monocultures, characterized by the highest acidifying activity (4 strains). Before the vaccine was preserved, it had been used for making bread leaven (of rye flour) whose activity and usefulness for rye bread production was then determined The vaccine was subjected to spray-drying. The survival rate of Lactobacillus rods was determined directly after drying and during storage. It was found that the parameters of spray-drying applied in the experiment caused a considerable reduction in the number of vaccine components--by 2 log on average.

  6. Acute Myeloid Leukemia: analysis of epidemiological profile and survival rate.

    PubMed

    de Lima, Mariana Cardoso; da Silva, Denise Bousfield; Freund, Ana Paula Ferreira; Dacoregio, Juliana Shmitz; Costa, Tatiana El Jaick Bonifácio; Costa, Imaruí; Faraco, Daniel; Silva, Maurício Laerte

    2016-01-01

    To describe the epidemiological profile and the survival rate of patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in a state reference pediatric hospital. Clinical-epidemiological, observational, retrospective, descriptive study. The study included new cases of patients with AML, diagnosed between 2004 and 2012, younger than 15 years. Of the 51 patients studied, 84% were white; 45% were females and 55%, males. Regarding age, 8% were younger than 1 year, 47% were aged between 1 and 10 years, and 45% were older than 10 years. The main signs/symptoms were fever (41.1%), asthenia/lack of appetite (35.2%), and hemorrhagic manifestations (27.4%). The most affected extra-medullary site was the central nervous system (14%). In 47% of patients, the white blood cell (WBC) count was below 10,000/mm(3) at diagnosis. The minimal residual disease (MRD) was less than 0.1%, on the 15th day of treatment in 16% of the sample. Medullary relapse occurred in 14% of cases. When comparing the bone marrow MRD with the vital status, it was observed that 71.42% of the patients with type M3 AML were alive, as were 54.05% of those with non-M3 AML. The death rate was 43% and the main proximate cause was septic shock (63.6%). In this study, the majority of patients were male, white, and older than 1 year. Most patients with WBC count <10,000/mm(3) at diagnosis lived. Overall survival was higher in patients with MRD <0.1%. The prognosis was better in patients with AML-M3. Copyright © 2016 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  7. Inferences regarding survival and recovery rates of winter-banded canvasbacks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Haramis, G.M.

    1980-01-01

    Banding and recovery data from 3 populations of winter-banded canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) were analyzed and survival and recovery rates were estimated. Sex-specific differences in these rates were detected in some populations, and lower survival rates were exhibited by females. Some geographic variation in survival rates was evident, suggesting that canvasbacks should not be managed strictly on a continent-wide basis. Evidence of temporal variation in both survival and recovery rates was found. Lower recovery rates were noted during periods of restrictive hunting regulations, but the relationship between survival rates and hunting regulations was not clear-cut.

  8. 20 CFR 200.9 - Selection of members of Actuarial Advisory Committee.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... actuaries to serve on an Actuarial Advisory Committee. This section describes how the two actuaries are selected. (b) Carrier actuary. One member of the Actuarial Advisory Committee shall be selected by... railroad mileage within the United States. (c) Railway labor actuary. The other member of the...

  9. Cumulative survival rate of Astra Tech implants: a retrospective analysis

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jung-Soo; Sohn, Joo-Yeon; Park, Jung-Chul; Jung, Ui-Won; Kim, Chang-Sung; Lee, Jae-Hoon; Shim, June-Sung; Lee, Keun-Woo

    2011-01-01

    Purpose The aim of this study was to analyze the short-term predictability and reliability of Astra Tech implants according to the demographical distribution of patients and condition of implant sites and location of implants. Methods Among patients treated with Astra Tech implant (Astra Tech AB) in the Department of Periodontology at the Dental Hospital of Yonsei University of College of Dentisry and K Dental Clinic from May 2004 to March 2009, 195 implants in 98 patients which had been restored more than 6 months ago were reviewed in this study. Following data were reviewed from patient charts and implants success rate was examined: 1) patient type and implant location, 2) bone status at the implant site, 3) diameter and length of the placed implants, 4) presence or absence of bone augmentation and types of the augmentation. Results The results from this study are as follows: 1) most implants were placed in the molar area, especially 1st molar area of maxilla, 2) most implants were placed at D2 and D3 bone type, 3) most implants were placed in areas of B and C bone quantity, 4) autogenous and alloplastic bone graft and artificial membrane were used for placement of 74 implants. Conclusions Short-term survival rate of Astra Tech implants was 100%. PMID:21556259

  10. Cumulative survival rate of Astra Tech implants: a retrospective analysis.

    PubMed

    Kim, Jung-Soo; Sohn, Joo-Yeon; Park, Jung-Chul; Jung, Ui-Won; Kim, Chang-Sung; Lee, Jae-Hoon; Shim, June-Sung; Lee, Keun-Woo; Choi, Seong-Ho

    2011-04-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze the short-term predictability and reliability of Astra Tech implants according to the demographical distribution of patients and condition of implant sites and location of implants. Among patients treated with Astra Tech implant (Astra Tech AB) in the Department of Periodontology at the Dental Hospital of Yonsei University of College of Dentisry and K Dental Clinic from May 2004 to March 2009, 195 implants in 98 patients which had been restored more than 6 months ago were reviewed in this study. Following data were reviewed from patient charts and implants success rate was examined: 1) patient type and implant location, 2) bone status at the implant site, 3) diameter and length of the placed implants, 4) presence or absence of bone augmentation and types of the augmentation. THE RESULTS FROM THIS STUDY ARE AS FOLLOWS: 1) most implants were placed in the molar area, especially 1st molar area of maxilla, 2) most implants were placed at D2 and D3 bone type, 3) most implants were placed in areas of B and C bone quantity, 4) autogenous and alloplastic bone graft and artificial membrane were used for placement of 74 implants. Short-term survival rate of Astra Tech implants was 100%.

  11. Punishing the lemon: the ethics of actuarial fairness.

    PubMed

    Jha, Saurabh

    2012-12-01

    The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act rejects the notion that actuarial fairness is a normative ideal. The author discusses the ethics of actuarial fairness and attempts to draw a distinction between actuarial fairness and moral fairness. The ethics of wellness programs are discussed with both actuarial fairness and moral fairness in mind. The potential tension between physicians and patients in the zealous pursuit of healthy goals is described. Finally, the logical end point of actuarial fairness with the widespread availability of genetic information is highlighted.

  12. Band reporting rates of waterfowl: does individual heterogeneity bias estimated survival rates?

    PubMed Central

    White, Gary C; Cordes, Line S; Arnold, Todd W

    2013-01-01

    In capture–recapture studies, the estimation accuracy of demographic parameters is essential to the efficacy of management of hunted animal populations. Dead recovery models based upon the reporting of rings or bands are often used for estimating survival of waterfowl and other harvested species. However, distance from the ringing site or condition of the bird may introduce substantial individual heterogeneity in the conditional band reporting rates (r), which could cause bias in estimated survival rates (S) or suggest nonexistent individual heterogeneity in S. To explore these hypotheses, we ran two sets of simulations (n = 1000) in MARK using Seber's dead recovery model, allowing time variation on both S and r. This included a series of heterogeneity models, allowing substantial variation on logit(r), and control models with no heterogeneity. We conducted simulations using two different values of S: S = 0.60, which would be typical of dabbling ducks such as mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and S = 0.80, which would be more typical of sea ducks or geese. We chose a mean reporting rate on the logit scale of −1.9459 with SD = 1.5 for the heterogeneity models (producing a back-transformed mean of 0.196 with SD = 0.196, median = 0.125) and a constant reporting rate for the control models of 0.196. Within these sets of simulations, estimation models where σS = 0 and σS > 0 (σS is SD of individual survival rates on the logit scale) were incorporated to investigate whether real heterogeneity in r would induce apparent individual heterogeneity in S. Models where σS = 0 were selected approximately 91% of the time over models where σS > 0. Simulation results showed < 0.05% relative bias in estimating survival rates except for models estimating σS > 0 when true S = 0.8, where relative bias was a modest 0.5%. These results indicate that considerable variation in reporting rates does not cause major bias in estimated survival rates of waterfowl, further highlighting

  13. Survival and band recovery rates of sympatric grey ducks and mallards in New Zealand

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Caithness, T.; Williams, M.; Nichols, J.D.

    1991-01-01

    We used band recovery data from grey ducks (Anas superciliosa) and mallards. (A. platyrhynchos) banded sympatrically during 1957-74 to estimate annual survival and recovery rates. Young birds tended to have higher recovery rates and lower survival rates than adults for both species. Both species showed strong evidence of year-to-year variation in annual survival rates. Survival rates of male mallards were higher than those in females, as is typical for this species in North America, but there was no evidence of sex-specific survival differences in grey ducks. Recovery rate estimates for grey ducks were high and were significantly higher than those for mallards. However, survival rates did not differ significantly between the 2 species within any age-sex class. The similar survival rates, when mallard populations were increasing and grey ducks were decreasing, suggest that mallard reproductive rates have been greater than those of grey ducks.

  14. Tannic acid raises survival rate of mice bearing syngeneic tumors.

    PubMed

    Koide, T; Kamei, H; Hashimoto, Y; Kojima, T; Hasegawa, M

    1999-06-01

    Tannic acid which was found earlier to have growth suppressive activity against cultured tumor cells, was given to Balb/c mice p.o. The mice had been inoculated with syngeneic tumor cells (Meth/A) i.p. When tannic acid was suspended in drinking water and given daily at doses of approximately 875 mg/kg/day and 1750 mg/kg/day, the respective survival rates were 59% and 48%, with that of the control mice being 29%. To study the cytotoxicity of tannic acid, we administered the tannic acid to mice at 875 and 1750 mg/kg/day for 35 days. The weight gain for each dose was lower than that of the control, although the difference was not significant. When tannic acid was given at 8750 mg/kg/day, the weight gain was significantly lower than the control. A histologic study did not show any pathological findings in the kidney, liver, or lungs in the mice given tannic acid at the above doses.

  15. Survival rate of eukaryotic cells following electrophoretic nanoinjection

    PubMed Central

    Simonis, Matthias; Hübner, Wolfgang; Wilking, Alice; Huser, Thomas; Hennig, Simon

    2017-01-01

    Insertion of foreign molecules such as functionalized fluorescent probes, antibodies, or plasmid DNA to living cells requires overcoming the plasma membrane barrier without harming the cell during the staining process. Many techniques such as electroporation, lipofection or microinjection have been developed to overcome the cellular plasma membrane, but they all result in reduced cell viability. A novel approach is the injection of cells with a nanopipette and using electrophoretic forces for the delivery of molecules. The tip size of these pipettes is approximately ten times smaller than typical microinjection pipettes and rather than pressure pulses as delivery method, moderate DC electric fields are used to drive charged molecules out of the tip. Here, we show that this approach leads to a significantly higher survival rate of nanoinjected cells and that injection with nanopipettes has a significantly lower impact on the proliferation behavior of injected cells. Thus, we propose that injection with nanopipettes using electrophoretic delivery is an excellent alternative when working with valuable and rare living cells, such as primary cells or stem cells. PMID:28120926

  16. A multisite comparison of actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders.

    PubMed

    Harris, Grant T; Rice, Marnie E; Quinsey, Vernon L; Lalumière, Martin L; Boer, Douglas; Lang, Carol

    2003-09-01

    Four actuarial instruments for the prediction of violent and sexual reoffending (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG], Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide [SORAG], Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism [RRASOR] and Static-99) were evaluated in 4 samples of sex offenders (N = 396). Although all 4 instruments predicted violent (including sexual) recidivism and recidivism known to be sexually motivated, areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were consistently higher for the VRAG and the SORAG. The instruments performed better when there were fewer missing items and follow-up time was fixed, with an ROC area up to .84 for the VRAG, for example, under such favorable conditions. Predictive accuracy was higher for child molesters than for rapists, especially for the Static-99 and the RRASOR. Consistent with past research, survival analyses revealed that those offenders high in both psychopathy and sexual deviance were an especially high-risk group.

  17. Survival of Plant Tissue at Super-Low Temperature VI. Effects of Cooling and Rewarming Rates on Survival.

    PubMed

    Sakai, A; Yoshida, S

    1967-12-01

    The survival rates of the cortical parenchymal cells of mulberry tree were determined as a function of cooling and rewarming rates. When cooling was carried out slowly at 1 degrees to 15 degrees per minute, all of the cells still remained viable even when rewarmed either rapidly or slowly. Survival rates gradually decreased to zero as the cooling rate increased from about 15 degrees to 2000 degrees per minute. In the intermediate cooling rates, when the cells were cooled at the rates lower than 14 degrees per minute, from -2.2 degrees to about -10 degrees , these cells could survive subsequent rapid cooling and rewarming.However, at cooling rates above 1000 degrees per minute and with rapid rewarming, the effect of cooling rate reversed and survival increased, reaching a maximum at about 200,000 degrees per minute. As the cooling rate increased above 15 degrees per minute, survival rates became increasingly dependent on the rewarming rate, with rapid rewarming becoming less deleterious than slow rewarming.The temperature range at which damage occurred during rewarming following removal from liquid nitrogen and in which growth rate of ice crystallization was greatest, was -30 degrees to -40 degrees . The survival rates even in the prefrozen cells at -30 degrees decreased considerably by keeping them at -30 degrees for 10 minutes after removal from liquid nitrogen. This fact indicates that intracellular freezable water remains to some degree even in the prefrozen cells at -30 degrees . After removal from liquid nitrogen, all cells retained their viability, when they were passed rapidly through a temperature range between -50 degrees and -2.5 degrees within about 2 seconds, namely at the rates greater than 1000 degrees per minute.These observations are explained in terms of the size of the crystals formed within the cortical cells.

  18. A new approach to the "apparent survival" problem: estimating true survival rates from mark-recapture studies.

    PubMed

    Gilroy, James J; Virzi, Thomas; Boulton, Rebecca L; Lockwood, Julie L

    2012-07-01

    Survival estimates generated from live capture-mark-recapture studies may be negatively biased due to the permanent emigration of marked individuals from the study area. In the absence of a robust analytical solution, researchers typically sidestep this problem by simply reporting estimates using the term "apparent survival." Here, we present a hierarchical Bayesian multistate model designed to estimate true survival by accounting for predicted rates of permanent emigration. Initially we use dispersal kernels to generate spatial projections of dispersal probability around each capture location. From these projections, we estimate emigration probability for each marked individual and use the resulting values to generate bias-adjusted survival estimates from individual capture histories. When tested using simulated data sets featuring variable detection probabilities, survival rates, and dispersal patterns, the model consistently eliminated negative biases shown by apparent survival estimates from standard models. When applied to a case study concerning juvenile survival in the endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis), bias-adjusted survival estimates increased more than twofold above apparent survival estimates. Our approach is applicable to any capture-mark-recapture study design and should be particularly valuable for organisms with dispersive juvenile life stages.

  19. Actuarial considerations on genetic testing.

    PubMed Central

    Le Grys, D J

    1997-01-01

    In the UK the majority of life insurers employ relatively liberal underwriting standards so that people can easily gain access to life assurance cover. Up to 95% of applicants are accepted at standard terms. If genetic testing becomes widespread then the buying habits of the public may change. Proportionately more people with a predisposition to major types of disease may take life assurance cover while people with no predisposition may take proportionately less. A model is used to show the possible effect. However, the time-scales are long and the mortality of assured people is steadily improving. The change in buying habits may result in the rate of improvement slowing down. In the whole population, the improvement in mortality is likely to continue and could improve faster if widespread genetic testing results in earlier diagnosis and treatment. Life insurers would not call for genetic tests and need not see the results of previous tests except for very large sums assured. In the UK, life insurers are unlikely to change their underwriting standards, and are extremely unlikely to bring in basic premium rating systems that give discounts on the premium or penalty points according to peoples genetic profile. The implications of widespread genetic testing on medical insurance and some health insurance covers may be more extreme. PMID:9304671

  20. Estimating survival rates of uncatchable animals: the myth of high juvenile mortality in reptiles.

    PubMed

    Pike, David A; Pizzatto, Lígia; Pike, Brian A; Shine, Richard

    2008-03-01

    Survival rates of juvenile reptiles are critical population parameters but are difficult to obtain through mark-recapture programs because these small, secretive animals are rarely caught. This scarcity has encouraged speculation that survival rates of juveniles are very low, and we test this prediction by estimating juvenile survival rates indirectly. A simple mathematical model calculates the annual juvenile survival rate needed to maintain a stable population size, using published data on adult survival rates, reproductive output, and ages at maturity in 109 reptile populations encompassing 57 species. Counter to prediction, estimated juvenile survival rates were relatively high (on average, only about 13% less than those of conspecific adults) and highly correlated with adult survival rates. Overall, survival rates during both juvenile and adult life were higher in turtles than in snakes, and higher in snakes than in lizards. As predicted from life history theory, rates of juvenile survival were higher in species that produce large offspring, and higher in viviparous squamates than in oviparous species. Our analyses challenge the widely held belief that juvenile reptiles have low rates of annual survival and suggest instead that sampling problems and the elusive biology of juvenile reptiles have misled researchers in this respect.

  1. The relationship between harvest and survival rates of mallards: A straightforward approach with partitioned data sets

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

    1983-01-01

    We randomly partitioned mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) bandings and recoveries from each of a number of selected reference areas into 2 groups and estimated survival and harvest rates for each area and group. This procedure produced independent vectors of survival- and harvest-rate estimates, which were used to test the general hypothesis that mallard survival and harvest rates were inversely related. We used Spearman rank correlation analysis and z-test contrasts between survival rates from years of high vs. low harvest rates. We also conducted computer simulation experiments to gain insight into the ability of these analyses to detect the relationship of interest. The data analyses suggested that survival and harvest rates of young females were inversely related, at least for the 5 areas included in the analysis. However, for young males and adults of both sexes, the analyses provided no evidence of an inverse relationship between survival and harvest rates, except possibly in a few specific areas.

  2. Psychotherapy: theory, experience, and personalized actuarial tables.

    PubMed

    Leventhal, D B; Shemberg, K M

    1977-12-01

    This paper addresses the issue of the role of theory in the actual application of psychotherapeutic operations. Within the present framework, psychotherapeutic effectiveness is seen as an empirical, actuarial process which occurs in an interpersonal setting separate from theoretical considerations. The role of theory is discussed and a rationale for the coexistence of equally 'effective' contradictory theories is presented. Suggestions for future research in the area of behaviour change are made and an argument for the eventual development of a 'therapeutic cookbook' is presented.

  3. Survival rate after emergency diagnosis of cancer is 'shocking'.

    PubMed

    2015-12-01

    ONE QUARTER of patients diagnosed with cancer after attending a London emergency department will die within two months, latest research suggests. Study author Kathy Pritchard-Jones, chief medical officer for London Cancer, said the 'shocking figures' confirm that early diagnosis makes a huge difference to the chances of surviving cancer.

  4. Survival rates of female greater sage-grouse in autumn and winter in Southeastern Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anthony, R.G.; Willis, M.J.

    2009-01-01

    We estimated survival rates of 135 female greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on 3 study areas in southeastern Oregon, USA during autumn and winter for 3 years. We used known-fate models in Program MARK to test for differences among study areas and years, investigate the potential influence of weather, and compute estimates of overwinter survival. We found no evidence for differences in survival rates among study areas, which was contrary to our original hypothesis. There also were no declines in survival rates during fallwinter, but survival rates varied among years and time within years. Average survival rate from October through February was 0.456 (SE 0.062). The coefficient of variation for this estimate was 13.6% indicating good precision in our estimates of survival. We found strong evidence for an effect of weather (i.e., mean daily min. temp, extreme min. temp, snow depth) on bi-weekly survival rates of sage-grouse for 2 of the study areas in one year. Extremely low (1,500 m) elevations. In contrast, we found no evidence for an influence of weather on the low-elevation study area or during the winters of 19891990 and 19911992. Extreme weather during winter can cause lower survival of adult female sage-grouse, so managers should be aware of these potential effects and reduce harvest rates accordingly.

  5. Doubly robust estimator for net survival rate in analyses of cancer registry data.

    PubMed

    Komukai, Sho; Hattori, Satoshi

    2017-03-01

    Cancer population studies based on cancer registry databases are widely conducted to address various research questions. In general, cancer registry databases do not collect information on cause of death. The net survival rate is defined as the survival rate if a subject would not die for any causes other than cancer. This counterfactual concept is widely used for the analyses of cancer registry data. Perme, Stare, and Estève (2012) proposed a nonparametric estimator of the net survival rate under the assumption that the censoring time is independent of the survival time and covariates. Kodre and Perme (2013) proposed an inverse weighting estimator for the net survival rate under the covariate-dependent censoring. An alternative approach to estimating the net survival rate under covariate-dependent censoring is to apply a regression model for the conditional net survival rate given covariates. In this article, we propose a new estimator for the net survival rate. The proposed estimator is shown to be doubly robust in the sense that it is consistent at least one of the regression models for survival time and for censoring time. We examine the theoretical and empirical properties of our proposed estimator by asymptotic theory and simulation studies. We also apply the proposed method to cancer registry data for gastric cancer patients in Osaka, Japan.

  6. Sex Disparity in Survival of Patients With Uveal Melanoma: Better Survival Rates in Women Than in Men in South Korea.

    PubMed

    Park, San Jun; Oh, Chang-Mo; Yeon, Bora; Cho, Hyunsoon; Park, Kyu Hyung

    2017-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the survival rate of patients with uveal melanoma and sex disparity in this rate in South Korea. We extracted incident uveal melanoma patients using the Korea Central Cancer Registry (KCCR) database, which covered the entire population from 1999 to 2012 in South Korea. We estimated all-cause survival probabilities and cancer-specific survival probabilities of patients with uveal melanoma and compared these probabilities between subgroups (sex, tumor site, age at diagnosis, etc.) using Kaplan-Meier methods and log-rank tests. We fitted the Cox-proportional hazards models for all-cause death and cancer death to determine sex disparities in survival. A total of 344 uveal melanoma patients (175 women, 51%) were ascertained. They comprised 283 patients with choroidal melanoma (82%) and 61 patients with ciliary body/iris melanoma (18%). The observed 5-year survival probability from all-cause death was 75% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 69%-79%); women with uveal melanoma showed higher survival probability (83% [95% CI: 76%-89%]) compared with men (66% [95% CI: 58%-73%], P < 0.01). After adjusting for age, year of diagnosis, tumor sites, and diagnostic verification method, the hazards for all-cause death and cancer death in women with uveal melanoma were lower than those in men (hazards ratio for cancer death = 0.50 [95% CI: 0.30-0.81]; hazards ratio for all-cause death = 0.39 [95% CI: 0.25-0.61]). Women with uveal melanoma have better survival probabilities relative to men with uveal melanoma. Our findings show a comprehensive picture of survival probability in uveal melanoma cancer patients in Korea, which requires further investigation of mechanism of the sex disparity in uveal melanoma.

  7. Potential Utility of Actuarial Methods for Identifying Specific Learning Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Benson, Nicholas; Newman, Isadore

    2010-01-01

    This article describes how actuarial methods can supplant discrepancy models and augment problem solving and Response to Intervention (RTI) efforts by guiding the process of identifying specific learning disabilities (SLD). Actuarial methods use routinized selection and execution of formulas derived from empirically established relationships to…

  8. Potential Utility of Actuarial Methods for Identifying Specific Learning Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Benson, Nicholas; Newman, Isadore

    2010-01-01

    This article describes how actuarial methods can supplant discrepancy models and augment problem solving and Response to Intervention (RTI) efforts by guiding the process of identifying specific learning disabilities (SLD). Actuarial methods use routinized selection and execution of formulas derived from empirically established relationships to…

  9. Development of an Actuarial Science Program at Salisbury University

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wainwright, Barbara A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper focuses on the development of an actuarial science track for the mathematics major at Salisbury University (SU). A timeline from the initial investigation into such a program through the proposal and approval processes is shared for those who might be interested in developing a new actuarial program. It is wise to start small and take…

  10. An Application of Actuarial Methods in Psychiatric Diagnosis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Overall, John E.; Higgins, C. Wayne

    1977-01-01

    This research provides an initial evaluation of an actuarial diagnostic testing program that is being conducted by the Psychometric Laboratory at the University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas. It was hoped that an actuarial program for psychiatric diagnosis would create greater efficiency, lower cost, and superior validity with respect…

  11. An Application of Actuarial Methods in Psychiatric Diagnosis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Overall, John E.; Higgins, C. Wayne

    1977-01-01

    This research provides an initial evaluation of an actuarial diagnostic testing program that is being conducted by the Psychometric Laboratory at the University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas. It was hoped that an actuarial program for psychiatric diagnosis would create greater efficiency, lower cost, and superior validity with respect…

  12. Development of an Actuarial Science Program at Salisbury University

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wainwright, Barbara A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper focuses on the development of an actuarial science track for the mathematics major at Salisbury University (SU). A timeline from the initial investigation into such a program through the proposal and approval processes is shared for those who might be interested in developing a new actuarial program. It is wise to start small and take…

  13. Estimation of survival rates from band recoveries of mule deer in Colorado

    SciTech Connect

    White, G.C.; Bartmann, R.M.

    1983-01-01

    An attempt has been made to determine the survival rate of mule deer in the White River drainage basin in northwestern Colorado. During five winters, 1972-76, 1923 mule deer were trapped and marked. Survival rates were determined at yearly intervals. A FORTRAN program was used to perform the analysis.

  14. Variability in nest survival rates and implications to nesting studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Klett, A.T.; Johnson, D.H.

    1982-01-01

    We used four reasonably large samples (83-213) of Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and Blue-winged Teal (A. discors) nests on an interstate highway right-of-way in southcentral North Dakota to evaluate potential biases in hatch-rate estimates. Twelve consecutive, weekly searches for nests were conducted with a cable-chain drag in 1976 and 1977. Nests were revisited at weekly intervals. Four methods were used to estimate hatch rates for the four data sets: the Traditional Method, the Mayfield Method, and two modifications of the Mayfield Method that are sometimes appropriate when daily mortality rates of nests are not constant. Hatch rates and the average age of nests at discovery declined as the interval between searches decreased, suggesting that mortality rates were not constant in our samples. An analysis of variance indicated that daily mortality rates varied with the age of nests in all four samples. Mortality was generally highest during the early laying period, moderately high during the late laying period, and lowest during incubation. We speculate that this relationship of mortality to nest age might be due to the presence of hens at nests or to differences in the vulnerability of nest sites to predation. A modification of the Mayfield Method that accounts for age-related variation in nest mortality was most appropriate for our samples. We suggest methods for conducting nesting studies and estimating nest success for species possessing similar nesting habits.

  15. Survival rates of adult lake trout in northwestern Lake Michigan, 1983-1993

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fabrizio, Mary C.; Holey, Mark E.; McKee, Patrick C.; Toneys, Michael L.

    1997-01-01

    The restoration of lake trout Salvelinus namaycush in Lake Michigan has been an elusive goal of resource management agencies in the Great Lakes region. In this study, we estimated annual survival rates of adult lake trout from an area in northwestern Lake Michigan known as the Clay Banks refuge. We tagged and recaptured fish with gill nets during the fall spawning season (N = 12,175; 1983–1989 and 1991–1993) and with pound nets in the spring (N = 52,035; 1984–1990 and 1992–1993). We fit Cormack–Jolly–Seber models to the two sets of data. We had insufficient data to analyze annual differences in survival rates of fall-tagged fish, but we were able to estimate an overall annual survival rate of 0.67. Annual survival rates of spring-tagged fish varied between 0.53 and 0.88 and increased after 1987–1988. In addition to the mark–recapture studies, we analyzed catch rates of lake trout from gill-net and pound-net surveys to estimate survival rates using catch curve analyses; these annual rates were generally lower than those estimated from mark–recapture analyses of tagged fish. However, survival rates of lake trout from the Clay Banks refuge appeared to meet the minimum rate believed necessary for restoration of this species in Lake Michigan. Furthermore, adult survival rates have been increasing in recent years, and lake trout restoration in Lake Michigan is not hampered by low survival of adult fish. We hypothesize that the recent decrease in abundance of adult lake trout is primarily due to decreases in survival rates of lake trout younger than 6 years.

  16. Survival rate of breast cancer patients in Malaysia: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Abdullah, Nor Aini; Wan Mahiyuddin, Wan Rozita; Muhammad, Nor Asiah; Ali, Zainudin Mohamad; Ibrahim, Lailanor; Ibrahim Tamim, Nor Saleha; Mustafa, Amal Nasir; Kamaluddin, Muhammad Amir

    2013-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer among Malaysian women. Other than hospital-based results, there are no documented population-based survival rates of Malaysian women for breast cancers. This population- based retrospective cohort study was therefore conducted. Data were obtained from Health Informatics Centre, Ministry of Health Malaysia, National Cancer Registry and National Registration Department for the period from 1st Jan 2000 to 31st December 2005. Cases were captured by ICD-10 and linked to death certificates to identify the status. Only complete data were analysed. Survival time was calculated from the estimated date of diagnosis to the date of death or date of loss to follow-up. Observed survival rates were estimated by Kaplan- Meier method using SPSS Statistical Software version 17. A total of 10,230 complete data sets were analysed. The mean age at diagnosis was 50.6 years old. The overall 5-year survival rate was 49% with median survival time of 68.1 months. Indian women had a higher survival rate of 54% compared to Chinese women (49%) and Malays (45%). The overall 5-year survival rate of breast cancer patient among Malaysian women was still low for the cohort of 2000 to 2005 as compared to survival rates in developed nations. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance the strategies for early detection and intervention.

  17. Is the rate of metabolic ageing and survival determined by Basal metabolic rate in the zebra finch?

    PubMed

    Rønning, Bernt; Moe, Børge; Berntsen, Henrik H; Noreen, Elin; Bech, Claus

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between energy metabolism and ageing is of great interest because aerobic metabolism is the primary source of reactive oxygen species which is believed to be of major importance in the ageing process. We conducted a longitudinal study on captive zebra finches where we tested the effect of age on basal metabolic rate (BMR), as well as the effect of BMR on the rate of metabolic ageing (decline in BMR with age) and survival. Basal metabolic rate declined with age in both sexes after controlling for the effect of body mass, indicating a loss of functionality with age. This loss of functionality could be due to accumulated oxidative damage, believed to increase with increasing metabolic rate, c.f. the free radical theory of ageing. If so, we would expect the rate of metabolic ageing to increase and survival to decrease with increasing BMR. However, we found no effect of BMR on the rate of metabolic ageing. Furthermore, survival was not affected by BMR in the males. In female zebra finches there was a tendency for survival to decrease with increasing BMR, but the effect did not reach significance (P<0.1). Thus, the effect of BMR on the rate of functional deterioration with age, if any, was not strong enough to influence neither the rate of metabolic ageing nor survival in the zebra finches.

  18. Trends in 5-year survival rates among breast cancer patients by hormone receptor status and stage

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Lu; Linden, Hannah M.; Anderson, Benjamin O.; Li, Christopher I.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Improvement in breast cancer survival has been observed in recent decades in the U.S., but it is unclear if similar survival gains are consistent across breast cancer subtypes, especially with regards to more advanced stages of the disease. Methods Data were from 13 population-based cancer registries participating in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program, consisting of women between 20–79 years of age diagnosed with invasive breast cancer between 1992 and 2008. 2-year (1992–2008) and 5-year (1992–2006) breast cancer cause-specific survival rates were calculated and stratified by estrogen receptor (ER)/progesterone receptor (PR) status, stage and race. Annual percent changes in survival rates were assessed. Results From 1992 through 1998–1999, 5-year and 2-year cause specific survival rates significantly improved across ER+/PR+, ER−/PR− and ER+/PR− subtypes, with an annual increase ranging from 0.5%–1.0%. From 1998–1999 to 2006, different patterns were observed by ER/PR subtypes with survival rates slightly improving for ER+/PR+, continuing to improve at a rate of 0.5% per year for ER−/PR−, and dropping 0.3% annually for ER+/PR− No significant survival gains were experienced by patients with ER−/PR+ cancer during the study period. In terms of advanced diseases, greatest annual increases in survival rates were seen for patients with stage III–IV ER+/PR+ and ER−/PR− tumors but less progress was observed for advanced ER+/PR− breast cancers. Conclusion Steady improvements in survival rates for breast cancer have been achieved over the past several decades. However, 5-year survival rates for stage IV disease remained dismally below 20% for most ER/PR subtypes. PMID:25164974

  19. Effect of restrictive harvest regulations on survival and recovery rates of American black ducks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Francis, C.M.; Sauer, J.R.; Serie, J.R.

    1998-01-01

    Population management of waterfowl requires an understanding of the effects of changes in hunting regulations on harvest and survival rates. Mean survival and recovery rates of American black ducks (Anas rubripes) were estimated during 3 periods of increasingly restrictive harvest regulations: 1950-66, 1967-82, and 1983-93. From the first to the second period, direct recovery rates declined for at least 1 age class in 4 of 6 reference areas, with a mean decline of 14% for adult and 7% for immature black ducks. From the second to the third period, direct recovery rates declined in all areas, declines averaging 37% for adults and 27% for immatures. Estimated mean survival rates increased from the first to the second period, consistent with a model of additivity of hunting mortality. Limited evidence existed for increases in survival rates from the second to the third period for immature males. For adults, however, survival increased less between these periods than would be expected if hunting mortality were additive and changes in recovery rates were proportional to changes in hunting mortality. Changes in survival and recovery rates of black ducks banded postseason were similar to those of adults banded preseason. Comparisons among estimates by degree blocks of latitude and longitude indicate that, at least between 1967 and 1983, estimated survival rates of immature and adult black ducks were lower in areas with high direct recovery rates. Smaller samples of banded birds and changes in banding locations in recent years may be limiting ability to evaluate consequences of recent changes in harvest rates. These correlation-based studies are limited in their ability to explain causes of observed changes in survival rates, suggesting the need for alternative approaches such as adaptive harvest management to increase understanding of the effects of hunting on black duck populations.

  20. On the development of survival criteria for rate sensitive materials.

    PubMed

    Eppinger, R H; Takhounts, E G

    2000-11-01

    The evaluation and mitigation of injury in the automotive crash environment is often achieved by monitoring and limiting the magnitude of forces and/or moments being applied to or transmitted through dummy structures representing particular portions of the human anatomy. Examples of body areas where this is the practice are the neck, the thoracic and lumbar spine, the pelvis, as well as the upper and lower extremities. Implicit within this process is the assumption that the observed forces are directly proportional to local failure metrics such as stress and/or strain. However, a variety of experimental efforts have demonstrated that many of these anatomical structures exhibit, to various degrees, viscoelastic behavior and time or rate dependent failure properties. This work develops a methodology that generalizes the results of various experimental observations. First, a particular material's viscoelastic constitutive properties are mathematically characterized by developing a constitutive relationship relating experimentally observed stress time histories to applied strain, and strain rate time histories. This constitutive relationship and a novel technique of "back integration" are employed to develop the material's creep compliance response. A Duhamel Integral relationship is used to predict the material's actual strain time history given its observed stress-rate time history and creep compliance characteristic. This then allows casting the material's loading history into its actual time dependent stress/strain space and determining if failure conditions have been exceeded. Both the theoretical development of this methodology and the effects of its application to real world crash circumstances are presented.

  1. Monitoring survival rates of Swainson's Thrush Catharus ustulatus at multiple spatial scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rosenberg, D.K.; DeSante, D.F.; McKelvey, K.S.; Hines, J.E.

    1999-01-01

    We estimated survival rates of Swainson's Thrush, a common, neotropical, migratory landbird, at multiple spatial scales, using data collected in the western USA from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship Programme. We evaluated statistical power to detect spatially heterogeneous survival rates and exponentially declining survival rates among spatial scales with simulated populations parameterized from results of the Swainson's Thrush analyses. Models describing survival rates as constant across large spatial scales did not fit the data. The model we chose as most appropriate to describe survival rates of Swainson's Thrush allowed survival rates to vary among Physiographic Provinces, included a separate parameter for the probability that a newly captured bird is a resident individual in the study population, and constrained capture probability to be constant across all stations. Estimated annual survival rates under this model varied from 0.42 to 0.75 among Provinces. The coefficient of variation of survival estimates ranged from 5.8 to 20% among Physiographic Provinces. Statistical power to detect exponentially declining trends was fairly low for small spatial scales, although large annual declines (3% of previous year's rate) were likely to be detected when monitoring was conducted for long periods of time (e.g. 20 years). Although our simulations and field results are based on only four years of date from a limited number and distribution of stations, it is likely that they illustrate genuine difficulties inherent to broadscale efforts to monitor survival rates of territorial landbirds. In particular, our results suggest that more attention needs to be paid to sampling schemes of monitoring programmes particularly regarding the trade-off between precison and potential bias o parameter estimates at varying spatial scales.

  2. Monitoring survival rates of Swainson's Thrush Catharus ustulatus at multiple spatial scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rosenberg, D.K.; DeSante, D.F.; McKelvey, K.S.; Hines, J.E.

    1999-01-01

    We estimated survival rates of Swainson's Thrush, a common, neotropical, migratory landbird, at multiple spatial scales, using data collected in the western USA from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship Programme. We evaluated statistical power to detect spatially heterogeneous survival rates and exponentially declining survival rates among spatial scales with simulated populations parameterized from results of the Swainson's Thrush analyses. Models describing survival rates as constant across large spatial scales did not fit the data. The model we chose as most appropriate to describe survival rates of Swainson's Thrush allowed survival rates to vary among Physiographic Provinces, included a separate parameter for the probability that a newly captured bird is a resident individual in the study population, and constrained capture probability to be constant across all stations. Estimated annual survival rates under this model varied from 0.42 to 0.75 among Provinces. The coefficient of variation of survival estimates ranged from 5.8 to 20% among Physiographic Provinces. Statistical power to detect exponentially declining trends was fairly low for small spatial scales, although large annual declines (3% of previous year's rate) were likely to be detected when monitoring was conducted for long periods of time (e.g. 20 years). Although our simulations and field results are based on only four years of data from a limited number and distribution of stations, it is likely that they illustrate genuine difficulties inherent to broadscale efforts to monitor survival rates of territorial landbirds. In particular, our results suggest that more attention needs to be paid to sampling schemes of monitoring programmes, particularly regarding the trade-off between precision and potential bias of parameter estimates at varying spatial scales.

  3. Alice in actuarial-land: through the looking glass of changing Static-99 norms.

    PubMed

    Sreenivasan, Shoba; Weinberger, Linda E; Frances, Allen; Cusworth-Walker, Sarah

    2010-01-01

    The Static-99, an actuarial rating method, is employed to conduct sexual violence risk assessment in legal contexts. The proponents of the Static-99 dismiss clinical judgment as not empirical. Two elements must be present to apply an actuarial risk model to a specific individual: sample representativeness and uniform measurement of outcome. This review demonstrates that both of these elements are lacking in the normative studies of the Static-99 and its revised version, the Static-99R. Studies conducted since the publication of the Static-99 have not replicated the original norms. Sexual recidivism rates for the same Static-99 score vary widely, from low to high, depending on the sample used. A hypothetical case example is presented to illustrate how the solitary application of the Static-99 or Static-99R recidivism rates to the exclusion of salient clinical factors for identifying sexual dangerousness can have serious consequences for public safety.

  4. Low survival rates of Swan Geese (Anser cygnoides) estimated from neck-collar resighting and telemetry

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Choi, Chang-Yong; Lee, Ki-Sup; Poyarkov, Nikolay D.; Park, Jin-Young; Lee, Hansoo; Takekawa, John; Smith, Lacy M.; Ely, Craig R.; Wang, Xin; Cao, Lei; Fox, Anthony D.; Goroshko, Oleg; Batbayar, Nyambayar; Prosser, Diann J.; Xiao, Xiangming

    2016-01-01

    Waterbird survival rates are a key component of demographic modeling used for effective conservation of long-lived threatened species. The Swan Goose (Anser cygnoides) is globally threatened and the most vulnerable goose species endemic to East Asia due to its small and rapidly declining population. To address a current knowledge gap in demographic parameters of the Swan Goose, available datasets were compiled from neck-collar resighting and telemetry studies, and two different models were used to estimate their survival rates. Results of a mark-resighting model using 15 years of neck-collar data (2001–2015) provided age-dependent survival rates and season-dependent encounter rates with a constant neck-collar retention rate. Annual survival rate was 0.638 (95% CI: 0.378–0.803) for adults and 0.122 (95% CI: 0.028–0.286) for first-year juveniles. Known-fate models were applied to the single season of telemetry data (autumn 2014) and estimated a mean annual survival rate of 0.408 (95% CI: 0.152–0.670) with higher but non-significant differences for adults (0.477) vs. juveniles (0.306). Our findings indicate that Swan Goose survival rates are comparable to the lowest rates reported for European or North American goose species. Poor survival may be a key demographic parameter contributing to their declining trend. Quantitative threat assessments and associated conservation measures, such as restricting hunting, may be a key step to mitigate for their low survival rates and maintain or enhance their population.

  5. Aircrew Survival Equipmentman 3 & 2; Naval Training Command Rate Training Manual.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Naval Training Command, Pensacola, FL.

    The training manual is one of a series prepared for enlisted personnel of the Regular Navy and the Naval Reserve who are training for performance proficiency and studying for advancement in the Aircrew Survival Equipmentman (PR) rating. The illustrated and indexed manual focuses on the personnel parachute and other related survival equipment.…

  6. Aircrew Survival Equipmentman 1 and C. NAVPERS 10360-D. Rate Training Manual.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bureau of Naval Personnel, Washington, DC.

    A guide for advancement and training in the Aircrew Survival Equipmentman rating for enlisted personnel of the Regular Navy and the Naval Reserve is provided in this training manual. The chapters outline the qualifications necessary and the responsibilities of Aircrew Survival Equipmentmen involved in blueprint reading and the development of…

  7. Failure to Achieve a PSA Level {<=}1 ng/mL After Neoadjuvant LHRHA Therapy Predicts for Lower Biochemical Control Rate and Overall Survival in Localized Prostate Cancer Treated With Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Mitchell, Darren M. McAleese, Jonathan; Park, Richard M.; Stewart, David P.; Stranex, Stephen; Eakin, Ruth L.; Houston, Russell F.; O'Sullivan, Joe M.

    2007-12-01

    Purpose: To investigate whether failure to suppress the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level to {<=}1 ng/mL after {>=}2 months of neoadjuvant luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonist therapy in patients scheduled to undergo external beam radiotherapy for localized prostate carcinoma is associated with reduced biochemical failure-free survival. Methods and Materials: A retrospective case note review of consecutive patients with intermediate- or high-risk localized prostate cancer treated between January 2001 and December 2002 with neoadjuvant hormonal deprivation therapy, followed by concurrent hormonal therapy and radiotherapy was performed. Patient data were divided for analysis according to whether the PSA level in Week 1 of radiotherapy was {<=}1.0 ng/mL. Biochemical failure was determined using the American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology (Phoenix) definition. Results: A total of 119 patients were identified. The PSA level after neoadjuvant hormonal deprivation therapy was {<=}1 ng/mL in 67 patients and >1 ng/mL in 52. At a median follow-up of 49 months, the 4-year actuarial biochemical failure-free survival rate was 84% vs. 60% (p = 0.0016) in favor of the patients with a PSA level after neoadjuvant hormonal deprivation therapy of {<=}1 ng/mL. The overall survival rate was 94% vs. 77.5% (p = 0.0045), and the disease-specific survival rate at 4 years was 98.5% vs. 82.5%. Conclusions: The results of our study have shown that patients with a PSA level >1 ng/mL at the beginning of external beam radiotherapy after {>=}2 months of neoadjuvant luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonist therapy have a significantly greater rate of biochemical failure and lower survival rate compared with those with a PSA level of {<=}1 ng/mL. Patients without adequate PSA suppression should be considered a higher risk group and considered for dose escalation or the use of novel treatments.

  8. Application of Artificial Neural Network in Predicting the Survival Rate of Gastric Cancer Patients

    PubMed Central

    Biglarian, A; Hajizadeh, E; Kazemnejad, A; Zali, MR

    2011-01-01

    Background: The aim of this study was to predict the survival rate of Iranian gastric cancer patients using the Cox proportional hazard and artificial neural network models as well as comparing the ability of these approaches in predicting the survival of these patients. Methods: In this historical cohort study, the data gathered from 436 registered gastric cancer patients who have had surgery between 2002 and 2007 at the Taleghani Hospital (a referral center for gastrointestinal cancers), Tehran, Iran, to predict the survival time using Cox proportional hazard and artificial neural network techniques. Results: The estimated one-year, two-year, three-year, four-year and five-year survival rates of the patients were 77.9%, 53.1%, 40.8%, 32.0%, and 17.4%, respectively. The Cox regression analysis revealed that the age at diagnosis, high-risk behaviors, extent of wall penetration, distant metastasis and tumor stage were significantly associated with the survival rate of the patients. The true prediction of neural network was 83.1%, and for Cox regression model, 75.0%. Conclusion: The present study shows that neural network model is a more powerful statistical tool in predicting the survival rate of the gastric cancer patients compared to Cox proportional hazard regression model. Therefore, this model recommended for the predicting the survival rate of these patients. PMID:23113076

  9. Disparities in Obesity, Physical Activity Rates, and Breast Cancer Survival.

    PubMed

    Ford, M E; Magwood, G; Brown, E T; Cannady, K; Gregoski, M; Knight, K D; Peterson, L L; Kramer, R; Evans-Knowell, A; Turner, D P

    2017-01-01

    The significantly higher breast cancer (BCa) mortality rates of African-American (AA) women compared to non-Hispanic (NHW) white women constitute a major US health disparity. Investigations have primarily focused on biological differences in tumors to explain more aggressive forms of BCa in AA women. The biology of tumors cannot be modified, yet lifestyle changes can mitigate their progression and recurrence. AA communities have higher percentages of obesity than NHWs and exhibit inefficient access to care, low socioeconomic status, and reduced education levels. Such factors are associated with limited healthy food options and sedentary activity. AA women have the highest prevalence of obesity than any other racial/ethnic/gender group in the United States. The social ecological model (SEM) is a conceptual framework on which interventions could be developed to reduce obesity. The SEM includes intrapersonal factors, interpersonal factors, organizational relationships, and community/institutional policies that are more effective in behavior modification than isolation from the participants' environmental context. Implementation of SEM-based interventions in AA communities could positively modify lifestyle behaviors, which could also serve as a powerful tool in reducing risk of BCa, BCa progression, and BCa recurrence in populations of AA women. © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Actuarial calculation for PSAK-24 purposes post-employment benefit using market-consistent approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Effendie, Adhitya Ronnie

    2015-12-01

    In this paper we use a market-consistent approach to calculate present value of obligation of a companies' post-employment benefit in accordance with PSAK-24 (the Indonesian accounting standard). We set some actuarial assumption such as Indonesian TMI 2011 mortality tables for mortality assumptions, accumulated salary function for wages assumption, a scaled (to mortality) disability assumption and a pre-defined turnover rate for termination assumption. For economic assumption, we use binomial tree method with estimated discount rate as its average movement. In accordance with PSAK-24, the Projected Unit Credit method has been adapted to determine the present value of obligation (actuarial liability), so we use this method with a modification in its discount function.

  11. 77 FR 63337 - Renewal of Charter of Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-16

    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Renewal of Charter of Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries. ACTION: Notice of Renewal of Advisory Committee. SUMMARY: The Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries announces the renewal of the charter of the...

  12. 20 CFR 901.32 - Receipt of information concerning enrolled actuaries.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... actuaries. 901.32 Section 901.32 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS... Suspension or Termination of Enrollment § 901.32 Receipt of information concerning enrolled actuaries. If an... Guaranty Corporation, or a member of the Joint Board has reason to believe that an enrolled actuary...

  13. Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Stanley, T.R.

    2011-01-01

    We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark-recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (??) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (?? = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

  14. 42 CFR 403.258 - Statement of actuarial opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... Program: Loss Ratio Provisions § 403.258 Statement of actuarial opinion. (a) For purposes of certification... in calculating the expected loss ratio are appropriate and reasonable, taking into account...

  15. 42 CFR 403.258 - Statement of actuarial opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... Program: Loss Ratio Provisions § 403.258 Statement of actuarial opinion. (a) For purposes of certification... in calculating the expected loss ratio are appropriate and reasonable, taking into account...

  16. 42 CFR 403.258 - Statement of actuarial opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... Program: Loss Ratio Provisions § 403.258 Statement of actuarial opinion. (a) For purposes of certification... in calculating the expected loss ratio are appropriate and reasonable, taking into account...

  17. 42 CFR 403.258 - Statement of actuarial opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... Program: Loss Ratio Provisions § 403.258 Statement of actuarial opinion. (a) For purposes of certification... in calculating the expected loss ratio are appropriate and reasonable, taking into account...

  18. Dose-rate dependent stochastic effects in radiation cell-survival models.

    PubMed

    Sachs, R K; Hlatky, L R

    1990-01-01

    When cells are subjected to ionizing radiation the specific energy rate (microscopic analog of dose-rate) varies from cell to cell. Within one cell, this rate fluctuates during the course of time; a crossing of a sensitive cellular site by a high energy charged particle produces many ionizations almost simultaneously, but during the interval between events no ionizations occur. In any cell-survival model one can incorporate the effect of such fluctuations without changing the basic biological assumptions. Using stochastic differential equations and Monte Carlo methods to take into account stochastic effects we calculated the dose-survival relationships in a number of current cell survival models. Some of the models assume quadratic misrepair; others assume saturable repair enzyme systems. It was found that a significant effect of random fluctuations is to decrease the theoretically predicted amount of dose-rate sparing. In the limit of low dose-rates neglecting the stochastic nature of specific energy rates often leads to qualitatively misleading results by overestimating the surviving fraction drastically. In the opposite limit of acute irradiation, analyzing the fluctuations in rates merely amounts to analyzing fluctuations in total specific energy via the usual microdosimetric specific energy distribution function, and neglecting fluctuations usually underestimates the surviving fraction. The MOnte Carlo methods interpolate systematically between the low dose-rate and high dose-rate limits. As in other approaches, the slope of the survival curve at low dose-rates is virtually independent of dose and equals the initial slope of the survival curve for acute radiation.

  19. Introduction of a prediction model to assigning periodontal prognosis based on survival rates.

    PubMed

    Martinez-Canut, Pedro; Alcaraz, Jaime; Alcaraz, Jaime; Alvarez-Novoa, Pablo; Alvarez-Novoa, Carmen; Marcos, Ana; Noguerol, Blas; Noguerol, Fernando; Zabalegui, Ion

    2017-09-04

    To develop a prediction model for tooth loss due to periodontal disease (TLPD) in patients following periodontal maintenance (PM), and assess its performance using a multicentre approach. A multilevel analysis of eleven predictors of TLPD in 500 patients following PM was carried out to calculate the probability of TLPD. This algorithm was applied to three different TLPD samples (369 teeth) gathered retrospectively by nine periodontist, associating several intervals of probability with the corresponding survival rates, based on significant differences in the mean survival rates. The reproducibility of these associations was assessed in each sample (One-way ANOVA and pair-wise comparison with Bonferroni corrections). The model presented high specificity and moderate sensitivity, with optimal calibration and discrimination measurements. Seven intervals of probability were associated with seven survival rates and these associations contained close to 80% of the cases: the probability predicted the survival rate at this percentage. The model performed well in the three samples, since the mean survival rates of each association were significantly different within each sample, while no significant differences between the samples were found in pair-wise comparisons of means. This model might be useful for predicting survival rates in different TLPD samples This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  20. Improving village poultry's survival rate through community-based poultry health management: evidence from Benin.

    PubMed

    Sodjinou, Epiphane; Henningsen, Arne; Koudande, Olorounto Delphin

    2013-01-01

    Community-based poultry health management (CBM) is a strategy for village poultry improvement based on the installment of "poultry interest groups" in experimental villages. These groups serve as a channel for the dissemination of village poultry improvement technologies. The use of CBM is due to the fact that village poultry farming is practiced in a total or partial scavenging system which gives the impression that all the birds in the village belong to the same flock. Accordingly, actions that target all farmers of the same village may have a larger impact on the village poultry's survival rate than actions that target individual producers. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of CBM on the survival rate of village poultry. Based on data collected on 353 poultry keepers, the study shows that CBM significantly improves the survival rate of village poultry. The adoption of technologies--poultry vaccination, construction of henhouses, and improved feed--disseminated through the CBM also significantly improves the survival rate. The access to markets for inputs and veterinary services is also important in improving the survival rate of poultry. Finally, the study suggests that governments and development agencies can improve village poultry survival rates by investing in the dissemination of information regarding best husbandry management practices through approaches that rely on the community such as CBM because CBM groups serve as channels for the dissemination of village poultry improvement technologies.

  1. Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age-structure data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.

    2014-01-01

    It has long been recognized that age-structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age-specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age-specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age-specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age-structure data.

  2. Chest compression rates and survival following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

    PubMed

    Idris, Ahamed H; Guffey, Danielle; Pepe, Paul E; Brown, Siobhan P; Brooks, Steven C; Callaway, Clifton W; Christenson, Jim; Davis, Daniel P; Daya, Mohamud R; Gray, Randal; Kudenchuk, Peter J; Larsen, Jonathan; Lin, Steve; Menegazzi, James J; Sheehan, Kellie; Sopko, George; Stiell, Ian; Nichol, Graham; Aufderheide, Tom P

    2015-04-01

    Guidelines for cardiopulmonary resuscitation recommend a chest compression rate of at least 100 compressions/min. A recent clinical study reported optimal return of spontaneous circulation with rates between 100 and 120/min during cardiopulmonary resuscitation for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. However, the relationship between compression rate and survival is still undetermined. Prospective, observational study. Data is from the Resuscitation Outcomes Consortium Prehospital Resuscitation IMpedance threshold device and Early versus Delayed analysis clinical trial. Adults with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest treated by emergency medical service providers. None. Data were abstracted from monitor-defibrillator recordings for the first five minutes of emergency medical service cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Multiple logistic regression assessed odds ratio for survival by compression rate categories (<80, 80-99, 100-119, 120-139, ≥140), both unadjusted and adjusted for sex, age, witnessed status, attempted bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation, location of arrest, chest compression fraction and depth, first rhythm, and study site. Compression rate data were available for 10,371 patients; 6,399 also had chest compression fraction and depth data. Age (mean±SD) was 67±16 years. Chest compression rate was 111±19 per minute, compression fraction was 0.70±0.17, and compression depth was 42±12 mm. Circulation was restored in 34%; 9% survived to hospital discharge. After adjustment for covariates without chest compression depth and fraction (n=10,371), a global test found no significant relationship between compression rate and survival (p=0.19). However, after adjustment for covariates including chest compression depth and fraction (n=6,399), the global test found a significant relationship between compression rate and survival (p=0.02), with the reference group (100-119 compressions/min) having the greatest likelihood for survival. After adjustment for chest

  3. Canadian brain cancer survival rates by tumour type and region: 1992-2008.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Yan; Shi, Qian; Li, Maoji; Nagamuthu, Chenthila; Andres, Ellie; Davis, Faith G

    2016-06-27

    To investigate patterns of survival among brain cancer patients in Canada. Canadian Cancer Registry data were obtained for all patients with first-ever primary malignant brain tumours diagnosed between 1992 and 2008 (n = 38,095). Follow-up ended with patient death or December 31, 2008, whichever occurred first. Crude Kaplan-Meier estimates were calculated at one, two and five years post-diagnosis. Cox proportional hazard models were used to obtain adjusted hazard ratios by region for major histology types. A time-specific generalized linear model was used to obtain 5-year survival estimates for specific age group, sex and region for major histology types. The overall five-year survival rate was 27%. No significant difference in survival rate over time is observed. The highest 5-year survival rate was 65% (95% CI: 62.5%-67.4%) for oligodendrogliomas and the lowest was 4.0% (95% CI: 3.7%-4.3%) for glioblastomas. Compared to Ontario, the adjusted 5-year glioblastoma survival estimates were lower in British Columbia, Alberta and the Prairie provinces (Manitoba and Saskatchewan), while the survival estimates were lower in all other regions for diffuse astrocytoma, and lower in Manitoba and Saskatchewan for anaplastic astrocytomas. Estimates were significantly higher for oligodendrogliomas in Alberta, and for anaplastic oligodendrogliomas in Alberta and Quebec (p < 0.05). These data are consistent with previous literature in observing higher survival rates at younger ages, in female patients and for tumours with mixed oligo components. There is a need to further explore the underlying reasons for the observed variation in survival rates by region in an effort to improve the prognosis of brain cancer in the Canadian patient population.

  4. Survival rates, mortality causes, and habitats of Pennsylvania white-tailed deer fawns

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vreeland, J.K.; Diefenbach, D.R.; Wallingford, B.D.

    2004-01-01

    Estimates of survival and cause-specific mortality of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawns are important to population management. We quantified cause-specific mortality, survival rates, and habitat characteristics related to fawn survival in a forested landscape and an agricultural landscape in central Pennsylvania. We captured and radiocollared neonatal (0.05). Predation accounted for 46.2% (95% Cl = 37.6-56.7%) of 106 mortalities through 34 weeks. We attributed 32.7% (95% Cl = 21.9-48.6%) and 36.7% (95% Cl = 25.5-52.9%) of 49 predation events to black bears (Ursus americanus) and coyotes (Canis latrans], respectively. Natural causes, excluding predation, accounted for 27.4% (95% Cl = 20.1-37.3) of mortalities. Fawn survival in Pennsylvania was comparable to reported survival in forested and agricultural regions in northern portions of the white-tailed deer range. We have no evidence to suggest that the fawn survival rates we observed were preventing population growth. Because white-tailed deer are habitat generalists, home-range-scale habitat characteristics may be unrelated to fawn survival; therefore, future studies should consider landscape-related characteristics on fawn survival.

  5. Effects of habitat disturbance on survival rates of softshell turtles (Apalone spinifera) in an urban stream

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Plummer, M.V.; Krementz, D.G.; Powell, L.A.; Mills, N.E.

    2008-01-01

    We monitored Spiny Softshell Turtles (Apalone spinifera) using mark-recapture during 1994-2005 in Gin Creek, Searcy, Arkansas. In 1997-2000 the creek bed and riparian zone were bulldozed in an effort to remove debris and improve water flow. This disturbance appeared to reduce the quantity and quality of turtle habitat. We tested for the potential effect of this habitat disturbance on the survival rates of marked turtles. We estimated annual survival rates for the population using models that allowed for variation in survival by state of maturation, year, and effects of the disturbance; we evaluated two different models of the disturbance impact. The first disturbance model incorporated a single change in survival rates, following the disturbance, whereas the second disturbance model incorporated three survival rates: pre- and postdisturbance, as well as a short-term decline during the disturbance. We used a state-transition model for our mark-recapture analysis, as softshells transition from juveniles to adults in a variable period of time. Our analysis indicated that survival varied by maturation state and was independent of a time trend or the disturbance. Annual survival rates were lower for juveniles (S?? = 0.717, SE = 0.039) than for adults (S?? = 0.836, SE = 0.025). Despite the dramatic habitat disturbance, we found no negative effects on survival rates. Our results demonstrate that, like a few other freshwater turtle species known to thrive in urban environments, populations of A. spinifera are resilient and can persist in urban environments despite periodic habitat disturbances. Copyright 2008 Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles.

  6. Banding reference areas and survival rates of green-winged teal, 1950-1989

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chu, D.S.; Nichols, J.D.; Hestbeck, J.B.; Hines, J.E.

    1995-01-01

    The green-winged teal (Anas crecca carolinensis) is an important harvest species, yet we know relatively little about its population ecology. We investigated aspects of green-winged teal population ecology of potential importance to waterfowl managers. We used recoveries of green-winged teal banded during winter (1950-89) to establish banding reference areas and estimate survival and band recovery rates. We used cluster analysis based on similarities in recovery patterns to group banding degree blocks into 8 minor and 5 major reference areas describing the principal wintering range of green-winged teal in North America. We then estimated survival and recovery rates of green-winged teal banded in these areas. Mean annual survival rate estimates across years and reference areas were similar (P gt 0.05) for males (0.55, cxa SE = 0.022) and females (0.51, cxa SE = 0.057). Mean annual recovery rate estimates were larger for males (0.033, cxa SE = 0.0017) than for females (0.024, cxa SE = 0.0024) (P lt 0.01). There was little evidence of temporal variation in survival or recovery rates for most datasets. There was evidence of geographic variation in survival rates among major reference areas for males (P = 0.04) but not for females (P = 0.30). We recommend that analyses be conducted on greenwinged teal banded during preseason to further investigate possible sex specificity of survival rates and to address questions about the relationship between harvest rates and survival.

  7. Association between Higher Rates of Cardioprotective Drug Use and Survival in Patients on Dialysis

    PubMed Central

    Tang, Yuexin; Brooks, John M.; Wetmore, James B.; Shireman, Theresa I.

    2015-01-01

    Background While cardiovascular (CV) disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients on chronic dialysis, utilization rates of cardioprotective drugs for dialysis patients remain low. This study sought to determine whether higher rates of cardioprotective drug use among dialysis patients might increase survival. Methods A retrospective cohort of incident dialysis patients (n = 50,468) with dual eligibility for U.S. Medicare and Medicaid was constructed using USRDS data linked with billing claims. Medication exposures included angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers (ACEIs/ARBs), β-blockers, calcium channel blockers (CCBs), and HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) prescribed within 90 days of dialysis initiation. The outcomes were one- and two-year survival and CV event-free survival. Variation in treatment rates based on local area practice styles were used as instruments in instrumental variable (IV) estimation, yielding average treatment effect estimates for patients whose treatment choices were affected by local area practice styles. Results Patients aged 65 years and older comprised 47.4% of the sample, while 59.5% were female and 35.0% were white. The utilization rate was 40.7% for ACEIs/ARBs, 43.0% for β-blockers, 50.7% for CCBs and 26.4% for statins. The local area practice style instruments were highly significantly related to cardioprotective drug use in dialysis patients (Chow-F values > 10). IV estimates showed only that higher rates of β-blockers increased one-year survival (β = 0.161, P-value = 0.020) and CV event-free survival (β = 0.189, P-value = 0.033), but that higher rates of CCBs decreased two-year CV event-free survival (β = -0.520, P-value = 0.009). Conclusions This study suggests that higher utilization rates of β-blockers might yield higher survival rates for dialysis patients. However, higher rates of the other drugs studied had no correlations with survival, and higher CCB rates

  8. Modeling the effect of toe clipping on treefrog survival: Beyond the return rate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Waddle, J.H.; Rice, K.G.; Mazzotti, F.J.; Percival, H.F.

    2008-01-01

    Some studies have described a negative effect of toe clipping on return rates of marked anurans, but the return rate is limited in that it does not account for heterogeneity of capture probabilities. We used open population mark-recapture models to estimate both apparent survival (ϕ) and the recapture probability (p) of two treefrog species individually marked by clipping 2–4 toes. We used information-theoretic model selection to examine the effect of toe clipping on survival while accounting for variation in capture probability. The model selection results indicate strong support for an effect of toe clipping on survival of Green Treefrogs (Hyla cinerea) and only limited support for an effect of toe clipping on capture probability. We estimate there was a mean absolute decrease in survival of 5.02% and 11.16% for Green Treefrogs with three and four toes removed, respectively, compared to individuals with just two toes removed. Results for Squirrel Treefrogs (Hyla squirella) indicate little support for an effect of toe clipping on survival but may indicate some support for a negative effect on capture probability. We believe that the return rate alone should not be used to examine survival of marked animals because constant capture probability must be assumed, and our examples demonstrate how capture probability may vary over time and among groups. Mark-recapture models provide a method for estimating the effect of toe clipping on anuran survival in situations where unique marks are applied.

  9. The impact factors on 5-year survival rate in patients operated with oral cancer

    PubMed Central

    Geum, Dong-Ho; Roh, Young-Chea; Yoon, Sang-Yong; Kim, Hyo-Geon; Lee, Jung-Han; Song, Jae-Min; Lee, Jae-Yeol; Hwang, Dae-Seok; Kim, Yong-Deok; Shin, Sang-Hun; Chung, In-Kyo

    2013-01-01

    Objectives The purpose of this study is to analyze clinical impact factors on the survival rate, and to acquire basic clinical data for the diagnosis of oral cancer, for a determination of the treatment plan with long-term survival in oral cancer patients. Materials and Methods Through a retrospective review of the medical records, the factors for long-term survival rate were analyzed. Thirty-seven patients, among patient database with oral cancer treated in the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery at Pusan National University Hospital within a period from March 1998 to March 2008, were selected within the study criteria and were followed-up for more than 5 years. The analyzed factors were gender, age, drinking, smoking, primary tumor site, type of cancer, TNM stage, recurrence of affected region, and metastasis of cervical lymph node. The 5-year survival rate on the impact factors was calculated statistically using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results By classification of clinical TNM at the 1st visit, there were 11 (29.7%) cases for stage I, 11 (29.7%) cases for stage II, 3 (8.1%) cases for stage III, and 12 (32.5%) cases for stage IV. The 5-year survival rate of total oral cancer patients after the operation were 75.7%, pathological TNM stage related 5-year survival rate were as follows: stage I 90.0%, stage II 81.8%, stage III 100% and stage IV 45.5%; in which the survival rate difference by each stage was significantly observed. The recurrence of cervical lymph node was the significant impact factor for the survival rate, because only 30.0% the survival rate in recurrent cases existed. During the follow-up, there were 15 (40.5%) patients with confirmed recurrence, and the 5-year survival rate of these patients was decreased as 46.7%. Conclusion The classification of clinical and pathological TNM stage, local recurrence after surgery, and metastasis of cervical lymph node after surgery were analyzed as the 3 most significant factors. PMID:24471047

  10. Survival rate of gastric cancer in Iran; a systematic review and meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Veisani, Yousef; Delpisheh, Ali

    2016-01-01

    Aim: In this study, we aimed to estimate one- to five-year survival rates in Iranian patients with gastric cancer (GC). In addition, we preformed subgroup analyses and meta-regression to explore possible sources of heterogeneity between studies. Background: According to literatures, there has been increasing attention to the long-term survival rate in patients with GC in Iran. However, results have been inconsistent and remain controversial in overall survival rates. Patients and methods: Literature searches were conducted using PubMed, Scopus, and ISI, as well as Magiran, Medlib, SID, and Iran Medex databases. Studies were pooled and summary one to five survival rates were calculated. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to explore possible sources of heterogeneity among studies. Subgroup analyses were also conducted. Analyses were conducted using the STATA statistical software package. Results: Final analysis of 29361 patients from 26 eligible studies was performed. The overall survival rate (one to five years) in all studies, by meta-analysis of 24, 14, 23, 12 and 22 studies were 52%, 31%, 24%, 22%, and 15%, respectively. Meta-regression analysis showed an increase in one- and five-year survival rate over the time (Reg Coef = 0.016, p= 0.04) and (Reg Coef= 0.021, p= 0.049), respectively. Positive heterogeneity was observed between quality of papers and data sources (P<0.001). Conclusion: More than half of GC deaths happened in the first year at diagnosis, and another 30% plus they occurred during the second year after confirmed diagnosis. Our results admit lower survival rates in Iran, similar to other developing countries. PMID:27099666

  11. Metabolic rate suppression as a mechanism for surviving environmental challenge in fish.

    PubMed

    Richards, Jeffrey G

    2010-01-01

    The ability to reduce metabolic rate during exposure to environmental stress, termed metabolic rate suppression, is thought to be an important component to enhance survival in many organisms. Metabolic rate suppression can be achieved through modifications to behavior, physiology, and cellular biochemistry, all of which act to reduce whole organisms energy expenditure. This chapter will critically evaluate the use of metabolic rate suppression as a response to environmental challenge in fish using three metabolic states: aestivation, hypoxia/anoxia exposure, and diapause.

  12. Program CONTRAST--A general program for the analysis of several survival or recovery rate estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    This manual describes the use of program CONTRAST, which implements a generalized procedure for the comparison of several rate estimates. This method can be used to test both simple and composite hypotheses about rate estimates, and we discuss its application to multiple comparisons of survival rate estimates. Several examples of the use of program CONTRAST are presented. Program CONTRAST will run on IBM-cimpatible computers, and requires estimates of the rates to be tested, along with associated variance and covariance estimates.

  13. Demography of forest birds in Panama: How do transients affect estimates of survival rates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brawn, J.D.; Karr, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Robinson, W.D.; Adams, N.J.; Slotow, R.H.

    1999-01-01

    Estimates of annual survival rates of neotropical birds have proven controversial. Traditionally, tropical birds were thought to have high survival rates for their size, but analyses of a multispecies assemblage from Panama by Karr et al. (1990) provided a counterexample to that view. One criticism of that study has been that the estimates were biased by transient birds captured only once as they passed through the area being sampled. New models that formally adjust for transient individuals have been developed since 1990. Preliminary analyses indicate that these models are indeed useful in modelling the data from Panama. Nonetheless, there is considerable interspecific variation and overall estimates of annual survival rates for understorey birds in Panama remain lower than those from other studies in the Neotropics and well below the rates long assumed for tropical birds (i.e. > 0.80). Therefore, tropical birds may not have systematically higher survival rates than temperate-zone species. Variation in survival rates among tropical species suggests that theory based on a simple tradeoff between clutch size and longevity is inadequate. The demographic traits of birds in the tropics (and elsewhere) vary within and among species according to some combination of historical and ongoing ecological factors. Understanding these processes is the challenge for future work.

  14. Monitoring survival rates of landbirds at varying spatial scales: An application of the MAPS Program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rosenberg, D.K.; DeSante, D.F.; Hines, J.E.; Bonney, Rick; Pashley, David N.; Cooper, Robert; Niles, Larry

    2000-01-01

    Survivorship is a primary demographic parameter affecting population dynamics, and thus trends in species abundance. The Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program is a cooperative effort designed to monitor landbird demographic parameters. A principle goal of MAPS is to estimate annual survivorship and identify spatial patterns and temporal trends in these rates. We evaluated hypotheses of spatial patterns in survival rates among a collection of neighboring sampling sites, such as within national forests, among biogeographic provinces, and between breeding populations that winter in either Central or South America, and compared these geographic-specific models to a model of a common survival rate among all sampling sites. We used data collected during 1992-1995 from Swainson's Thrush (Cathorus ustulatus) populations in the western region of the United States. We evaluated the ability to detect spatial and temporal patterns of survivorship with simulated data. We found weak evidence of spatial differences in survival rates at the local scale of 'location,' which typically contained 3 mist-netting stations. There was little evidence of differences in survival rates among biogeographic provinces or between populations that winter in either Central or South America. When data were pooled for a regional estimate of survivorship, the percent relative bias due to pooling 'locations' was 12 years of monitoring. Detection of spatial patterns and temporal trends in survival rates from local to regional scales will provide important information for management and future research directed toward conservation of landbirds.

  15. Valuing structured professional judgment: predictive validity, decision-making, and the clinical-actuarial conflict.

    PubMed

    Falzer, Paul R

    2013-01-01

    Structured professional judgment (SPJ) has received considerable attention as an alternative to unstructured clinical judgment and actuarial assessment, and as a means of resolving their ongoing conflict. However, predictive validity studies have typically relied on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, the same technique commonly used to validate actuarial assessment tools. This paper presents SPJ as distinct from both unstructured clinical judgment and actuarial assessment. A key distinguishing feature of SPJ is the contribution of modifiable factors, either dynamic or protective, to summary risk ratings. With modifiable factors, the summary rating scheme serves as a prognostic model rather than a classification procedure. However, prognostic models require more extensive and thorough predictive validity testing than can be provided by ROC analysis. It is proposed that validation should include calibration and reclassification techniques, as well as additional measures of discrimination. Several techniques and measures are described and illustrated. The paper concludes by tracing the limitations of ROC analysis to its philosophical foundation and its origin as a statistical theory of decision-making. This foundation inhibits the performance of crucial tasks, such as determining the sufficiency of a risk assessment and examining the evidentiary value of statistical findings. The paper closes by noting a current effort to establish a viable and complementary relationship between SPJ and decision-making theory.

  16. Economics of Life and Death: Mortality and Survival Rates for African-Americans.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Char, S. V.

    1994-01-01

    Examines the correlates of premature death, infant mortality rates, and associated costs for African Americans using census and other government data. There is unimpeachable evidence to confirm the inferior health and survival rates of African Americans at all age intervals. (SLD)

  17. Incidence and survival rates of ovarian cancer in low-income women in Sudan

    PubMed Central

    Abuidris, Dafalla O.; Weng, Hsin-Yi; Elhaj, Ahmed M.; Eltayeb, Elgaylani Abdallah; Elsanousi, Mohamed; Ibnoof, Rehab S.; Mohammed, Sulma I.

    2016-01-01

    Ovarian cancer is the second most common gynecological cancer worldwide. Little is known about the disease in Sudan. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the incidence rate, age and stage at diagnosis, and median survival time of patients presenting at the National Cancer Institute-University of Gezira (NCI-UG), Sudan. Data were collected in a prospective study of women with ovarian cancer over a period of eleven years of follow-up (between 2000 and 2011). Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the distribution of the demographics of the sample. The direct method was used to compute the age-standardized rate (ASR) using data from the 1966 and 2000 World Standard Populations (WSPs). The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate survival functions and the median survival time. Log-rank tests were used to statistically compare between the survival functions. There were steady increases in ovarian cancer incidence rates between 2000 and 2009, with a slight decline noted in 2010 and 2011. The patients' age range was 9–90. The age-specific incidence rate increased greatly in women aged 55 years or older. The majority of the patients had stage III or IV disease. The annual ASR using WSPs 1966 and 2000 as standard populations were 3.3 and 3.7 per 100,000 women, respectively. The median survival time was 31 months (95% confidence interval, 19–43). The 5-year cumulative survival rate was 38%. In Sudan, ovarian cancer affects postmenopausal women, akin to what is reported in the developed world with high incidence rates. Presenting with advanced stage disease is the predominant factor that results in a short survival time for women. PMID:28105363

  18. Prognostic factors and survival rate of osteosarcoma: A single-institution study.

    PubMed

    Faisham, Wan Ismail; Mat Saad, Arman Zaharil; Alsaigh, Laith N; Nor Azman, Mat Z; Kamarul Imran, Musa; Biswal, Biswa M; Bhavaraju, Venkata Mk; Salzihan, Md Salleh; Hasnan, Jaafar; Ezane, Aziz M; Ariffin, Nasir; Norsarwany, Mohamad; Ziyadi, Mohamad G; Wan Azman, Wan Sulaiman; Halim, Ahmad Sukari; Zulmi, Wan

    2017-04-01

    Osteosarcoma is a highly malignant primary bone tumor. The study aim to evaluate the prognostic factors influencing the survival rate in our center. This was a retrospective cohort study of all patients treated between January 2005 and December 2010. We included 163 patients with an age range of 6-59 years (median = 19). The median follow-up was 47 months (range 36-84). The overall survival in patients who completed chemotherapy and surgery (n = 117) was 72% at 2 years and 44% at 5 years. Histologically, 99 (85%) had osteoblastic, 6 (5%) had chondroblastic and 3 (2.5%) had telangiectatic osteosarcoma. Limb salvage surgery was performed in 80 (49%) and 41 (25%) underwent amputation. However, 46 patients (28%) underwent no surgical intervention and incomplete chemotherapy. In total, 38/79 patients had a good chemotherapy response. There was a significantly better survival rate for limb salvage versus amputation. Independent prognostic factors for survival are compliance to treatment and presence of lung metastasis. The overall survival of osteosarcoma patients was influenced by the presence of pulmonary metastases and compliance to treatment. Histological subtype, different chemotherapy regimens and histological necrosis after chemotherapy did not significantly influence survival. The patients who did not complete treatment had significantly poorer survival. © 2015 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  19. Estimating the personal cure rate of cancer patients using population-based grouped cancer survival data.

    PubMed

    Binbing Yu; Tiwari, Ram C; Feuer, Eric J

    2011-06-01

    Cancer patients are subject to multiple competing risks of death and may die from causes other than the cancer diagnosed. The probability of not dying from the cancer diagnosed, which is one of the patients' main concerns, is sometimes called the 'personal cure' rate. Two approaches of modelling competing-risk survival data, namely the cause-specific hazards approach and the mixture model approach, have been used to model competing-risk survival data. In this article, we first show the connection and differences between crude cause-specific survival in the presence of other causes and net survival in the absence of other causes. The mixture survival model is extended to population-based grouped survival data to estimate the personal cure rate. Using the colorectal cancer survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Programme, we estimate the probabilities of dying from colorectal cancer, heart disease, and other causes by age at diagnosis, race and American Joint Committee on Cancer stage.

  20. Frailty in state-space models: application to actuarial senescence in the Dipper.

    PubMed

    Marzolin, Gilbert; Charmantier, Anne; Gimenez, Olivier

    2011-03-01

    Senescence, a decrease in life history traits with age, is a within-individual process. The lack of suitable methods to deal with individual heterogeneity has long impeded progress in exploring senescence in wild populations. Analyses of survival senescence are additionally complicated by the often neglected issue of imperfect detectability. To deal with both these issues, we developed state-space models to analyze capture-mark-recapture data while accounting for individual heterogeneity by incorporating random effects. We illustrated our approach by applying it to 29 years of data on breeding females in a Dipper (Cinclus cinclus) population. We highlighted patterns of age-related variation in annual survival by statistical comparisons of piecewise linear, quadratic, Gompertz, and Weibull survival models. The Gompertz model was ranked first in our set. It provided strong evidence for actuarial senescence with an onset of senescence estimated at about 2.3 years. The probability for this model to involve a frailty was 0.15, and the probability to involve an individual latent effect in detection was about 0.4. The estimated mean age at first reproduction was 1.2 years. The general case model described here in detail should encourage the reanalysis of actuarial senescence in cases where imperfect detection or individual heterogeneity is suspected.

  1. Demography of forest birds in Panama: How do transients affect estimates of survival rates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brawn, J.D.; Karr, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Robinson, W.D.; Adams, N.J.; Slotow, R.H.

    1998-01-01

    Estimates of annual survival rates for a multispecies sample of neotropical birds from Panama have proven controversial. Traditionally, tropical birds were thought to have high survival rates for their size, but analyses by Kart et al. (1990. Am. Nat. 136:277-91) contradicted that view, suggesting tropical birds may not have systematically high survival rates. A persistent criticism of that study has been that the estimates were biased by transient birds captured only once as they passed through the area being sampled. New models that formally adjust for transient individuals have been developed since 1990. Preliminary analyses using these models indicate that, despite some variation among species, overall estimates of survival rates for understory birds in Panama are not strongly affected by adjustments for transients. We also compare estimates of survival rates based on mark-recapture models with observations of colour-marked birds. The demographic traits of birds in the tropics (and elsewhere) vary within and among species according to combinations of historical and ongoing ecological factors. Understanding sources of this variation is the challenge for future work.

  2. Five-Year Cancer Survival Rates in Oklahoma from 1997 to 2008

    PubMed Central

    Campbell, Janis; Gandhi, Krupa; Pate, Anne; Janitz, Amanda; Anderson, Amber; Kinnard, Robin; Ding, Kai

    2016-01-01

    Introduction This study evaluated the five-year observed survival rates of American Indians/Alaskan Native, African American, and white cancer patients among various demographic characteristics in Oklahoma focusing on lung and bronchus, colon and rectum, female breast, and prostate for the cancer patients diagnosed between 1997 and 2008. Methods The five-year observed survival rates were calculated for overall cancer and specific cancer sites, using Kaplan-Meier method with data from the Oklahoma Central Cancer Registry. Results Overall, 51.5% patients diagnosed with cancer survived for five years. For specific sites we found: 79.2% for female breast cancer survived; 77.5% for prostate cancer; 12.9% for lung and bronchus cancer; and 49.9% for colorectal cancer. Conclusions The five-year observed survival rates in Oklahoma were consistent with national trends. Overall, cancer survival seems to be improving over time, but there remains disparity with the AA and AI/AN populations in contrast to whites in Oklahoma. PMID:27890941

  3. Five-Year Cancer Survival Rates in Oklahoma from 1997 to 2008.

    PubMed

    Campbell, Janis; Gandhi, Krupa; Pate, Anne; Janitz, Amanda; Anderson, Amber; Kinnard, Robin; Ding, Kai

    2016-01-01

    This study evaluated the five-year observed survival rates of American Indians/Alaskan Native, African American, and white cancer patients among various demographic characteristics in Oklahoma focusing on lung and bronchus, colon and rectum, female breast, and prostate for the cancer patients diagnosed between 1997 and 2008. The five-year observed survival rates were calculated for overall cancer and specific cancer sites, using Kaplan-Meier method with data from the Oklahoma Central Cancer Registry. Overall, 51.5% patients diagnosed with cancer survived for five years. For specific sites we found: 79.2% for female breast cancer survived; 77.5% for prostate cancer; 12.9% for lung and bronchus cancer; and 49.9% for colorectal cancer. The five-year observed survival rates in Oklahoma were consistent with national trends. Overall, cancer survival seems to be improving over time, but there remains disparity with the AA and AI/AN populations in contrast to whites in Oklahoma.

  4. Look Different: Effect of Radiation Hormesis on the Survival Rate of Immunosuppressed Mice

    PubMed Central

    Alavi, M.; Taeb, S.; Okhovat, M.A.; Atefi, M.; Negahdari, F.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Hormesis is defined as the bio-positive response of something which is bio-negative in high doses. In the present study, the effect of radiation hormesis was evaluated on the survival rate of immunosuppressed BALB/c mice by Cyclosporine A. Material and Methods: We used 75 consanguine, male, BALB/c mice in this experiment. The first group received Technetium-99m and the second group was placed on a sample radioactive soil of Ramsar region (800Bq) for 20 days. The third group was exposed to X-rays and the fourth group was placed on the radioactive soil and then injected Technetium-99m. The last group was the sham irradiated control group. Finally, 30mg Cyclosporine A as the immunosuppressive agent was orally administered to all mice 48 hours after receiving X-rays and Technetium-99m. The mean survival rate of mice in each group was estimated during time. Results: A log rank test was run to determine if there were differences in the survival distribution for different groups and related treatments. According to the results, the survival rate of all pre-irradiated groups was more than the sham irradiated control group (p < .05). The highest survival time was related to the mice which were placed on the radioactive soil of Ramsar region for 20 days and then injected Technetium-99m. Conclusion: This study confirmed the presence of hormetic models and the enhancement of survival rate in immunosuppressed BALB/c mice as a consequence of low-dose irradiation. It is also revealed the positive synergetic radioadaptive response on survival rate of immunosuppressed animals. PMID:27853721

  5. Survival Rate of Breast Cancer in Iran: A Meta-Analysis

    PubMed

    Abedi, Ghasem; Janbabai, Ghasem; Moosazadeh, Mahmood; Farshidi, Fereshte; Amiri, Mohammad; Khosravi, Ahmad

    2016-10-01

    Background: There has not been a general estimation about survival rates of breast cancer cases in Iran. Therefore, the present study aimed to assess survival using a meta-analysis. Materials and Methods: International credible databases such as Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, Science direct and Google Scholar and Iranian databases such as Magiran, Irandoc and SID, from 1997 to 2015 were searched. All articles covering survival rate of breast cancer were entered into the study without any limits. Quality assessment of the articles and data extraction were performed by two researchers using the modified STROBE checklist, which includes 12 questions. Articles with scores greater than 8 were included in the analysis. A limitation of this meta-analysis was different methods for presenting of results in the papers surveyed. Results: A total of 21 articles with a sample of 12,195 people were analyzed. The one-year, three-year, five-year and ten-year survival rates of breast cancer in Iran were estimated to be 95.8% (94.6-97.0), 82.4% (79.0-85.8), 69.5% (64.5-74.5), 58.1% (39.6-76.6), respectively. The most important factors affecting survival of breast cancer were age, number of lymph nodes involved, size of the tumor and the stage of the disease. Conclusion: The five- and ten- year survival rates in Iran are lower than in developed countries. Conducting breast cancer screening plan support (including regular clinical examination, mammography), public training and raising awareness should be helpful in facilitating early diagnosis and increasing survival rates for Iranian women. Creative Commons Attribution License

  6. Single gene and gene interaction effects on fertilization and embryonic survival rates in cattle.

    PubMed

    Khatib, H; Huang, W; Wang, X; Tran, A H; Bindrim, A B; Schutzkus, V; Monson, R L; Yandell, B S

    2009-05-01

    Decrease in fertility and conception rates is a major cause of economic loss and cow culling in dairy herds. Conception rate is the product of fertilization rate and embryonic survival rate. Identification of genetic factors that cause the death of embryos is the first step in eliminating this problem from the population and thereby increasing reproductive efficiency. A candidate pathway approach was used to identify candidate genes affecting fertilization and embryo survival rates using an in vitro fertilization experimental system. A total of 7,413 in vitro fertilizations were performed using oocytes from 504 ovaries and semen samples from 10 different bulls. Fertilization rate was calculated as the number of cleaved embryos 48 h postfertilization out of the total number of oocytes exposed to sperm. Survival rate of embryos was calculated as the number of blastocysts on d 7 of development out of the number of total embryos cultured. All ovaries were genotyped for 8 genes in the POU1F1 signaling pathway. Single-gene analysis revealed significant associations of GHR, PRLR, STAT5A, and UTMP with survival rate and of POU1F1, GHR, STAT5A, and OPN with fertilization rate. To further characterize the contribution of the entire integrated POU1F1 pathway to fertilization and early embryonic survival, a model selection procedure was applied. Comparisons among the different models showed that interactions between adjacent genes in the pathway revealed a significant contribution to the variation in fertility traits compared with other models that analyzed only bull information or only genes without interactions. Moreover, some genes that were not significant in the single-gene analysis showed significant effects in the interaction analysis. Thus, we propose that single genes as well as an entire pathway can be used in selection programs to improve reproduction performance in dairy cattle.

  7. Increasing Winter Maximal Metabolic Rate Improves Intrawinter Survival in Small Birds.

    PubMed

    Petit, Magali; Clavijo-Baquet, Sabrina; Vézina, François

    Small resident bird species living at northern latitudes increase their metabolism in winter, and this is widely assumed to improve their chances of survival. However, the relationship between winter metabolic performance and survival has yet to be demonstrated. Using capture-mark-recapture, we followed a population of free-living black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) over 3 yr and evaluated their survival probability within and among winters. We also measured the size-independent body mass (Ms), hematocrit (Hct), basal metabolic rate (BMR), and maximal thermogenic capacity (Msum) and investigated how these parameters influenced survival within and among winters. Results showed that survival probability was high and constant both within (0.92) and among (0.96) winters. They also showed that while Ms, Hct, and BMR had no significant influence, survival was positively related to Msum-following a sigmoid relationship-within but not among winter. Birds expressing an Msum below 1.26 W (i.e., similar to summer levels) had a <50% chance of survival, while birds with an Msum above 1.35 W had at least a 90% chance of surviving through the winter. Our data therefore suggest that black-capped chickadees that are either too slow or unable to adjust their phenotype from summer to winter have little chances of survival and thus that seasonal upregulation of metabolic performance is highly beneficial. This study is the first to document in an avian system the relationship between thermogenic capacity and winter survival, a proxy of fitness.

  8. [Survival rate for breast cancer in Rabat (Morocco) 2005-2008].

    PubMed

    Mechita, Nada Bennani; Tazi, Mohammed Adnane; Er-Raki, Abdelouahed; Mrabet, Mustapha; Saadi, Asma; Benjaafar, Noureddine; Razine, Rachid

    2016-01-01

    Breast cancer is a public health problem in Morocco. This study aims to estimate the survival rate for patients with breast cancer living in Rabat. We conducted a prognostic study of female patients with breast cancer diagnosed during 2005-2008, living in Rabat and whose data were recorded in the Rabat Cancer Registry. The date of inclusion in this study corresponded with the date on which cancer was histologically confirmed. Survival rate was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the comparison between the different classes of a variable was made using the log rank test. The study of factors associated with survival was performed using the Cox model. During the study period 628 cases of breast cancer were collected. Mortality rate was 19.9%. Overall 1-year survival rate was 97.1%, 89.2% at 3 years and 80.6% at 5 years. In multivariate analysis, breast cancer survival was statistically lower in patients over 70 years of age (p <0.001) with large tumor size (p < 0.001), advanced-stage adenopathies (p = 0.007), metastases (p < 0.001) and not using hormone therapy (p = 0.002). Large tumor size and metastases are poor prognostic factors in breast cancer, hence the need to strengthen screening programs.

  9. Factors Associated With Subjective Life Expectancy: Comparison With Actuarial Life Expectancy.

    PubMed

    Bae, Jaekyoung; Kim, Yeon-Yong; Lee, Jin-Seok

    2017-07-01

    Subjective life expectancy (SLE) has been found to show a significant association with mortality. In this study, we aimed to investigate the major factors affecting SLE. We also examined whether any differences existed between SLE and actuarial life expectancy (LE) in Korea. A cross-sectional survey of 1000 individuals in Korea aged 20-59 was conducted. Participants were asked about SLE via a self-reported questionnaire. LE from the National Health Insurance database in Korea was used to evaluate differences between SLE and actuarial LE. Age-adjusted least-squares means, correlations, and regression analyses were used to test the relationship of SLE with four categories of predictors: demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors. Among the 1000 participants, women (mean SLE, 83.43 years; 95% confidence interval, 82.41 to 84.46 years; 48% of the total sample) had an expected LE 1.59 years longer than that of men. The socioeconomic factors of household income and housing arrangements were related to SLE. Among the health behaviors, smoking status, alcohol status, and physical activity were associated with SLE. Among the psychosocial factors, stress, self-rated health, and social connectedness were related to SLE. SLE had a positive correlation with actuarial estimates (r=0.61, p<0.001). Gender, household income, history of smoking, and distress were related to the presence of a gap between SLE and actuarial LE. Demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors showed significant associations with SLE, in the expected directions. Further studies are needed to determine the reasons for these results.

  10. Factors Associated With Subjective Life Expectancy: Comparison With Actuarial Life Expectancy

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Objectives Subjective life expectancy (SLE) has been found to show a significant association with mortality. In this study, we aimed to investigate the major factors affecting SLE. We also examined whether any differences existed between SLE and actuarial life expectancy (LE) in Korea. Methods A cross-sectional survey of 1000 individuals in Korea aged 20-59 was conducted. Participants were asked about SLE via a self-reported questionnaire. LE from the National Health Insurance database in Korea was used to evaluate differences between SLE and actuarial LE. Age-adjusted least-squares means, correlations, and regression analyses were used to test the relationship of SLE with four categories of predictors: demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors. Results Among the 1000 participants, women (mean SLE, 83.43 years; 95% confidence interval, 82.41 to 84.46 years; 48% of the total sample) had an expected LE 1.59 years longer than that of men. The socioeconomic factors of household income and housing arrangements were related to SLE. Among the health behaviors, smoking status, alcohol status, and physical activity were associated with SLE. Among the psychosocial factors, stress, self-rated health, and social connectedness were related to SLE. SLE had a positive correlation with actuarial estimates (r=0.61, p<0.001). Gender, household income, history of smoking, and distress were related to the presence of a gap between SLE and actuarial LE. Conclusions Demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors showed significant associations with SLE, in the expected directions. Further studies are needed to determine the reasons for these results. PMID:28768402

  11. Temperature, Larval Diet, and Density Effects on Development Rate and Survival of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae)

    PubMed Central

    Couret, Jannelle; Dotson, Ellen; Benedict, Mark Q.

    2014-01-01

    Many environmental factors, biotic and abiotic interact to influence organismal development. Given the importance of Aedes aegypti as a vector of human pathogens including dengue and yellow fever, understanding the impact of environmental factors such as temperature, resource availability, and intraspecific competition during development is critical for population control purposes. Despite known associations between developmental traits and factors of diet and density, temperature has been considered the primary driver of development rate and survival. To determine the relative importance of these critical factors, wide gradients of conditions must be considered. We hypothesize that 1) diet and density, as well as temperature influence the variation in development rate and survival, 2) that these factors interact, and this interaction is also necessary to understand variation in developmental traits. Temperature, diet, density, and their two-way interactions are significant factors in explaining development rate variation of the larval stages of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. These factors as well as two and three-way interactions are significantly associated with the development rate from hatch to emergence. Temperature, but not diet or density, significantly impacted juvenile mortality. Development time was heteroskedastic with the highest variation occurring at the extremes of diet and density conditions. All three factors significantly impacted survival curves of experimental larvae that died during development. Complex interactions may contribute to variation in development rate. To better predict variation in development rate and survival in Ae. aegypti, factors of resource availability and intraspecific density must be considered in addition, but never to the exclusion of temperature. PMID:24498328

  12. Temperature, larval diet, and density effects on development rate and survival of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae).

    PubMed

    Couret, Jannelle; Dotson, Ellen; Benedict, Mark Q

    2014-01-01

    Many environmental factors, biotic and abiotic interact to influence organismal development. Given the importance of Aedes aegypti as a vector of human pathogens including dengue and yellow fever, understanding the impact of environmental factors such as temperature, resource availability, and intraspecific competition during development is critical for population control purposes. Despite known associations between developmental traits and factors of diet and density, temperature has been considered the primary driver of development rate and survival. To determine the relative importance of these critical factors, wide gradients of conditions must be considered. We hypothesize that 1) diet and density, as well as temperature influence the variation in development rate and survival, 2) that these factors interact, and this interaction is also necessary to understand variation in developmental traits. Temperature, diet, density, and their two-way interactions are significant factors in explaining development rate variation of the larval stages of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. These factors as well as two and three-way interactions are significantly associated with the development rate from hatch to emergence. Temperature, but not diet or density, significantly impacted juvenile mortality. Development time was heteroskedastic with the highest variation occurring at the extremes of diet and density conditions. All three factors significantly impacted survival curves of experimental larvae that died during development. Complex interactions may contribute to variation in development rate. To better predict variation in development rate and survival in Ae. aegypti, factors of resource availability and intraspecific density must be considered in addition, but never to the exclusion of temperature.

  13. Has actuarial aging "slowed" over the past 250 years? A comparison of small-scale subsistence populations and European cohorts.

    PubMed

    Gurven, Michael; Fenelon, Andrew

    2009-04-01

    G.C. Williams's 1957 hypothesis famously argues that higher age-independent, or "extrinsic," mortality should select for faster rates of senescence. Long-lived species should therefore show relatively few deaths from extrinsic causes such as predation and starvation. Theoretical explorations and empirical tests of Williams's hypothesis have flourished in the past decade but it has not yet been tested empirically among humans. We test Williams's hypothesis using mortality data from subsistence populations and from historical cohorts from Sweden and England/Wales, and examine whether rates of actuarial aging declined over the past two centuries. We employ three aging measures: mortality rate doubling time (MRDT), Ricklefs's omega, and the slope of mortality hazard from ages 60-70, m'(60-70), and model mortality using both Weibull and Gompertz-Makeham hazard models. We find that (1) actuarial aging in subsistence societies is similar to that of early Europe, (2) actuarial senescence has slowed in later European cohorts, (3) reductions in extrinsic mortality associate with slower actuarial aging in longitudinal samples, and (4) men senesce more rapidly than women, especially in later cohorts. To interpret these results, we attempt to bridge population-based evolutionary analysis with individual-level proximate mechanisms.

  14. Age-specificity of black-capped chickadee survival rates: Analysis of capture-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Loery, G.; Pollock, K.H.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

    1987-01-01

    The ornithological literature indicates a widespread belief in two generalizations about the age-specificity of avian survival rates: (1) survival rates of young birds for some period following fledging are lower than those of adults, and (2) after reaching adulthood survival rates are constant for birds of all ages. There is a growing body of evidence in support of the first generalization, although little is known about how long the survival difference between young and adults lasts. This latter question can be addressed with capture-recapture or band recovery studies based on birds marked in the winter, but the inability to determine age in many species during winter has prevented the use of standard methods. There is very little evidence supporting the second generalization, and we are in need of methods and actual analyses that address this question. In the present paper we restate the two generalizations as hypotheses and test them using data from a wintering Black-capped Chickadee (Parus atricapillus) population in Connecticut, which has been studied by Loery for 26 yr. We use a cohort-based Jolly-Seber approach, which should be useful in other investigations of this nature. We found strong evidence of lower survival rates in 1st-yr birds than in adults, but could not determine whether this was the result of higher mortality rates, higher emigration rates, or a combination of the two. We also found evidence that survival rates of adult birds were not constant with age but decreased at a rate of ? 3.5%/yr. As adult birds are very faithful to their wintering areas, we believe that almost all this decrease can be attributed to an increase in mortality with age. Simulation results suggest that heterogeneity of capture probabilities could not explain the magnitude of the decrease in survival with age. Age-dependent tag loss is also discussed as an alternative explanation, but is dismissed as very unlikely in this situation. This analysis thus provides some of the

  15. Spring-summer survival rates of yearling versus adult mallard females

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reynolds, R.E.; Blohm, R.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

    1995-01-01

    Knowledge of the timing, magnitude, and cause of mortality in wildlife populations is imperative for developing management strategies that protect or improve the status of these populations. Age- and sex-specific population parameter estimates provide the most useful information for this purpose. Numerous studies have provided information about survival rates in mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), but little is known about age-related differences in female survival during the breeding period. We examined band-recovery data for female mallards banded in southern portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba during spring and summer 1981-85. We used band-recovery models to test the hypothesis that yearling females would exhibit higher survival compared with that of older females during spring-summer. There was evidence (P = 0.08) that spring-summer survival rates of yearling females (0.728) were higher than that of older females (0.574). These findings support the hypothesis that age-specific differences in nesting behavior (e.g., later nest initiation and fewer nesting attempts by yearlings) influence losses to predators and are responsible for the difference in spring-summer survival. Management treatments that increase nest success, and consequently reduce the need for prolonged nesting, will increase mallard survival during spring-summer.

  16. Annual survival rate estimate of satellite transmitter–marked eastern population greater sandhill cranes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fronczak, David L.; Andersen, David E.; Hanna, Everett E.; Cooper, Thomas R.

    2015-01-01

    Several surveys have documented the increasing population size and geographic distribution of Eastern Population greater sandhill cranes Grus canadensis tabida since the 1960s. Sport hunting of this population of sandhill cranes started in 2012 following the provisions of the Eastern Population Sandhill Crane Management Plan. However, there are currently no published estimates of Eastern Population sandhill crane survival rate that can be used to inform harvest management. As part of two studies of Eastern Population sandhill crane migration, we deployed solar-powered global positioning system platform transmitting terminals on Eastern Population sandhill cranes (n  =  42) at key concentration areas from 2009 to 2012. We estimated an annual survival rate for Eastern Population sandhill cranes from data resulting from monitoring these cranes by using the known-fates model in the MARK program. Estimated annual survival rate for adult Eastern Population sandhill cranes was 0.950 (95% confidence interval  =  0.885–0.979) during December 2009–August 2014. All fatalities (n  =  5) occurred after spring migration in late spring and early summer. We were unable to determine cause of death for crane fatalities in our study. Our survival rate estimate will be useful when combined with other population parameters such as the population index derived from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service fall survey, harvest, and recruitment rates to assess the effects of harvest on population size and trend and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies.

  17. Predicting the survival rate of mouse embryonic stem cells cryopreserved in alginate beads.

    PubMed

    Sambu, S; Xu, X; Ye, H; Cui, Z F

    2011-11-01

    Stem cell cryopreservation in three-dimensional (3D) scaffolds may offer better protection to cells leading to higher survival rates. However, it introduces heterogeneity in cryoprotective agent (CPA) concentrations, durations of exposure to CPA, and freezing and thawing rate within constructs. This paper applies a mathematical model which couples the mass transport of dimethyl sulphoxide (DMSO) in a cell-seeded spherical construct and cell membrane transport into mouse embryonic stem cells (mESCs) to predict overall cell survival rate (CSR) based on CPA equilibrium exposure times (t(E)) and concentrations. The effect of freeze-concentration is also considered. To enable such a prediction, a contour plot was constructed using experimental data obtained in cryopreservation of cell suspensions with DMSO at a cooling rate of 1 degrees C/min. Thereafter, the diffusion in the alginate bead and the membrane transport of CPA was numerically simulated. Results were mapped onto the survival rate contours yielding 'predicted' CSR. The effects of loading time, hindrance, construct radius, and CPA concentration on predicted CSR were examined. From these results, an operation window with upper and lower t(E) of 12-19 min (for 0.6 mm radius beads and 1.4 M DMSO) yielded an overall viability of 60 per cent. The model predictions and the best experimental cryopreservation results with encapsulated mESCs were in agreement. Hence, optimization based on post-thaw CSR can accelerate the identification of cryopreservation protocols and parameters for maximizing cell survival.

  18. Actuarial risk assessment: commentary on Berlin et al.

    PubMed

    Hart, Stephen D

    2003-10-01

    F. S. Berlin, N. W. Galbreath, B. Geary, and G. McGlone (this issue) have raised some important questions regarding the use of acturial risk assessment instruments in sex offender civil commitment proceedings, also known as sexually violent predator or SVP proceedings. Their primary point is that interpreting the findings of existing actuarial risk assessment instruments is a tricky business because it is not certain whether the extent to which probability estimates derived from group data can be applied to individual cases. I agree completely with Berlin et al. on this point, but disagree with them concerning the extent to which probability estimates--and, therefore, actuarial instruments--are legally relevant in SVP proceedings. I outline some potential problems with respect to the legal admissibility of actuarial instruments, including their legal relevance.

  19. Possible effects of the 2004 and 2005 hurricanes on manatee survival rates and movement

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langtimm, C.A.; Krohn, M.D.; Reid, J.P.; Stith, B.M.; Beck, C.A.

    2006-01-01

    Prior research on manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) survival in northwest Florida, based on mark-resighting photo-identification data from 1982-1998, showed that annual adult apparent survival rate was significantly lower during years with extreme storms. Mechanisms that we proposed could have led to lower estimates included stranding, injury from debris, being fatally swept out to sea, or displacement into poorly monitored areas due to storm-generated longshore currents or storm-related loss of habitat. In 2004 and 2005, seven major hurricanes impacted areas of Florida encompassing three regional manatee subpopulations, enabling us to further examine some of these mechanisms. Data from a group of manatees tracked in southwest Florida with satellite transmitters during Hurricanes Charley, Katrina, and Wilma showed that these animals made no significant movement before and during storm passage. Mark-resighting data are being collected to determine if survival rates were lower with the 2004 and 2005 storms. ?? 2006 Estuarine Research Federation.

  20. Pink salmon ( Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) marine survival rates reflect early marine carbon source dependency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kline, Thomas C., Jr.; Boldt, Jennifer L.; Farley, Edward V., Jr.; Haldorson, Lewis J.; Helle, John H.

    2008-05-01

    Marine survival rate (the number of adult salmon returning divided by the number of salmon fry released) of pink salmon runs propagated by Prince William Sound, Alaska (PWS) salmon hatcheries is highly variable resulting in large year-to-year run size variation, which ranged from ∼20 to ∼50 million during 1998-2004. Marine survival rate was hypothesized to be determined during their early marine life stage, a time period corresponding to the first growing season after entering the marine environment while they are still in coastal waters. Based on the predictable relationships of 13C/ 12C ratios in food webs and the existence of regional 13C/ 12C gradients in organic carbon, 13C/ 12C ratios of early marine pink salmon were measured to test whether marine survival rate was related to food web processes. Year-to-year variation in marine survival rate was inversely correlated to 13C/ 12C ratios of early marine pink salmon, but with differences among hatcheries. The weakest relationship was for pink salmon from the hatchery without historic co-variation of marine survival rate with other PWS hatcheries or wild stocks. Year-to-year variation in 13C/ 12C ratio of early marine stage pink salmon in combination with regional spatial gradients of 13C/ 12C ratio measured in zooplankton suggested that marine survival was driven by carbon subsidies of oceanic origin (i.e., oceanic zooplankton). The 2001 pink salmon cohort had 13C/ 12C ratios that were very similar to those found for PWS carbon, i.e., when oceanic subsidies were inferred to be nil, and had the lowest marine survival rate (2.6%). Conversely, the 2002 cohort had the highest marine survival (9.7%) and the lowest mean 13C/ 12C ratio. These isotope patterns are consistent with hypotheses that oceanic zooplankton subsidies benefit salmon as food subsidies, or as alternate prey for salmon predators. Oceanic subsidies are manifestations of significant exchange of material between PWS and the Gulf of Alaska. Given

  1. Relationship of Social Determinants of Health with the Three-year Survival Rate of Breast Cancer

    PubMed

    Davoudi Monfared, Esmat; Mohseny, Maryam; Amanpour, Farzaneh; Mosavi Jarrahi, Alireza; Moradi Joo, Mohammad; Heidarnia, Mohammad Ali

    2017-04-01

    Background: Social determinants of health are among the key factors affecting the pathogenesis of diseases. Considering the increasingly high prevalence of breast cancer and the association of social determinants of health with its occurrence, related morbidity and mortality and survival rate, this study sought to assess the relationship of three-year survival rate of breast cancer with social determinants of health. Materials and Methods: This cohort study was conducted on males and females presenting to the Cancer Research Center of Shohada-E-Tajrish Hospital from 2006 to 2010 with definite diagnosis of breast cancer. Data were collected via phone interviews. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression was fitted using SPSS (version 18) and PH assumption was tested by STATA (version 11) software. Results: The study was performed on 797 breast cancer patients, aged 25-93 years with mean age of 54.66 (SD=11.86) years. After 3 years from diagnosing cancer 700 (87.8%) patients were alive and 97 (12.2%) patients were dead. Using log rank test, there was relationship between 3-year survivals with age, education, childhood residence, sibling, treatment type, and district were significant (p<0.05). Using Cox PH regression, 3-year survival was related to age, level of education, municipal district of residence and childhood condition (p<0.05). Conclusion: Social determinants of health such as childhood condition, city region residency, level of education and age affect the three-year survival rate of breast cancer. Future studies must focus on the effect of childhood social class on the survival rates of cancers, which have been paid less attention to. Creative Commons Attribution License

  2. Temporal and geographic estimates of survival and recovery rates for the mallard, 1950 through 1985

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chu, D.S.; Hestbeck, J.B.

    1989-01-01

    Estimates of survival and recovery rates and the corresponding sample variances and covariances were made for mallards (Anas platyrhychos) banded before the hunting season for the period 1950-85. Estimates were made for adults and young, males and females, for as many banding reference areas as possible using standard band-recovery methods.

  3. Marathon Running Fails to Influence RBC Survival Rates in Iron-Replete Women.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Steenkamp, Irene; And Others

    1986-01-01

    This study used radiolabeling to measure red blood cell (RBC) survival rates in six iron-replete female marathon runners, and urinary tests were conducted to search for secondary evidence of RBC damage. The hypothesized RBC fragmentation was not disclosed. (Author/MT)

  4. 38 CFR 3.23 - Improved pension rates-Veterans and surviving spouses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... income of the veteran or surviving spouse. (Authority: 38 U.S.C. 1521, 1541) (c) Mexican border period and World War I veterans. The applicable maximum annual rate payable to a Mexican border period or World War I veteran under this section shall be increased by the amount specified in 38 U.S.C. 1521(g...

  5. 38 CFR 3.23 - Improved pension rates-Veterans and surviving spouses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... income of the veteran or surviving spouse. (Authority: 38 U.S.C. 1521, 1541) (c) Mexican border period and World War I veterans. The applicable maximum annual rate payable to a Mexican border period or World War I veteran under this section shall be increased by the amount specified in 38 U.S.C. 1521(g...

  6. 38 CFR 3.23 - Improved pension rates-Veterans and surviving spouses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... income of the veteran or surviving spouse. (Authority: 38 U.S.C. 1521, 1541) (c) Mexican border period and World War I veterans. The applicable maximum annual rate payable to a Mexican border period or World War I veteran under this section shall be increased by the amount specified in 38 U.S.C. 1521(g...

  7. 38 CFR 3.23 - Improved pension rates-Veterans and surviving spouses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... income of the veteran or surviving spouse. (Authority: 38 U.S.C. 1521, 1541) (c) Mexican border period and World War I veterans. The applicable maximum annual rate payable to a Mexican border period or World War I veteran under this section shall be increased by the amount specified in 38 U.S.C. 1521(g...

  8. 38 CFR 3.23 - Improved pension rates-Veterans and surviving spouses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... income of the veteran or surviving spouse. (Authority: 38 U.S.C. 1521, 1541) (c) Mexican border period and World War I veterans. The applicable maximum annual rate payable to a Mexican border period or World War I veteran under this section shall be increased by the amount specified in 38 U.S.C. 1521(g...

  9. 38 CFR 3.10 - Dependency and indemnity compensation rate for a surviving spouse.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... compensation; (D) VA was withholding payments under the provisions of 10 U.S.C. 1174(h)(2); (E) VA was... paragraph (b) or (d) of this section and any applicable increases specified in paragraph (c) or (e) of this... rate of DIC for a surviving spouse will be the amount set forth in 38 U.S.C. 1311(a)(1). (c)...

  10. Retrospective Study of the Survival Rates of Indirect Pulp Therapy Versus Different Pulpotomy Medicaments.

    PubMed

    Wunsch, Patrice Barsamian; Kuhnen, Marissa M; Best, Al M; Brickhouse, Tegwyn H

    2016-10-15

    The purposes of this retrospective chart review were to determine: (1) how primary molars in need of vital pulp therapy (VPT) have been treated over a period of four years at a university-based pediatric dental practice (UBP); and which treatments-indirect pulp therapy (IPT), formocresol pulpotomy (FCP), and ferric sulfate pulpotomy (FSP)-have been successful. Electronic patient records (axiUm) that contained the procedure codes D3120 (pulp cap-indirect) or D3220 (therapeutic pulpotomy) were totaled by year. Visit records were queried again to identify treatment failures (i.e., extractions [D7140] or pulpectomy [D3221/D3240]). A total of 2,001 primary molar teeth were included in the study. Success was compared using a Kaplan-Meier analysis. At the three-year follow-up, IPT had a 96.2 percent survival rate, FCP had a 65.8 percent survival rate, and FSP had a 62.9 percent survival rate (P<.0001). Over a four-year period of time, IPT became the more commonly used vital pulp therapy treatment at a university-based pediatric dental practice and had a significantly better survival rate than FCP or FSP.

  11. Marathon Running Fails to Influence RBC Survival Rates in Iron-Replete Women.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Steenkamp, Irene; And Others

    1986-01-01

    This study used radiolabeling to measure red blood cell (RBC) survival rates in six iron-replete female marathon runners, and urinary tests were conducted to search for secondary evidence of RBC damage. The hypothesized RBC fragmentation was not disclosed. (Author/MT)

  12. Correlation between albuminemia, natremia and survival rates in patients with hepatorenal syndrome.

    PubMed

    Niculae, A; Jinga, Mariana; Ciocâlteu, A; Lascăr, I; Jinga, V; Checheriţă, I A

    2011-01-01

    A two years prospective study was developed, based on the monitoring of 84 patients with cirrhosis and elevated serum creatinine; 33 patients met the diagnostic criteria for the hepatorenal syndrome. In these 33 patients, survival rate has been studied in correlation with hepatorenal syndrome types, serum albumin and natremia.

  13. Variable development rate and survival of navel orangeworm (Amyelois transitella, Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) on pistachios

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The navel orangeworm (NOW) is the main pest of pistachios in California but its rate of development in pistachios is unknown. A series of laboratory studies were conducted on different stages of field-collected and processed pistachios to calculate the length of development and survival. The navel ...

  14. The effect of chemical weapons incineration on the survival rates of Red-tailed Tropicbirds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schreiber, E.A.; Schenk, G.A.; Doherty, P.F.

    2001-01-01

    In 1992, the Johnston Atoll Chemical Agent Disposal System (JACADS) began incinerating U.S. chemical weapons stockpiles on Johnston Atoll (Pacific Ocean) where about 500,000 seabirds breed, including Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda). We hypothesized that survival rates of birds were lower in those nesting downwind of the incinerator smokestack compared to those upwind, and that birds might move away from the area. From 1992 - 2000 we monitored survival and movements between areas upwind and downwind from the JACADS facility. We used a multi-strata mark recapture approach to model survival, probability of recapture and movement. Probability of recapture was significantly higher for birds in downwind areas (owing to greater recapture effort) and thus was an important 'nuisance' parameter to take into account in modeling. We found no differences in survival between birds nesting upwind ( 0.8588) and downwind (0.8550). There was no consistent difference in movement rates between upwind or downwind areas from year to year: differences found may be attributed to differing vegetation growth and human activities between the areas. Our results suggest that JACADS has had no documentable influence on the survival and year to year movement of Red-tailed Tropicbirds.

  15. Differences in the survival rates of older patients with colorectal cancers in 2003 and 2009

    PubMed Central

    Shin, Je-Wook; Park, Byung Kwan; Kim, Min Jung; Kim, Bun; Kim, Byung Chang; Park, Sung Chan; Han, Kyung Su; Oh, Jae Hwan

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The aim of this study was to investigate survival in patients aged ≥70 years who underwent colorectal cancer surgery in 2003 and 2009. In addition, we aimed to identify the factors that could affect survival in these patients. Methods In a cross-sectional study, a retrospective review of the data for 878 patients who underwent colorectal cancer surgery with curative intent in the years 2003 and 2009 was performed. The primary outcome was the 5-year overall survival rate (5-OSR), and the clinicopathologic factors that could affect overall survival were analyzed. Results The 5-OSR was 77.8% and 84.9% in 2003 and 2009, respectively (P = 0.013). Age, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification, stage, type of surgery, and length of hospital stay possibly affected survival per the univariate and multivariate analyses. In patients aged ≥70 years, the 5-OSR in 2009 was 75.9%, which showed improvement compared to 53.7% in 2003 (P = 0.027). The stage, type of surgery, and hospital stay were the variables that possibly affected survival in patients aged ≥70 years per the univariate analysis, whereas the stage (III; hazard ratio [HR], 2.188; P = 0.005) and length of hospital stay (>12 days; HR, 2.307; P = 0.004), were the variables that showed statistical significance on the multivariate analysis. Conclusion We found that early stage and shortening the length of hospital stay could affect survival in older patients with colorectal cancers. Because of limited evidence on the influence of shortening the length of hospital stay on survival in older patients, further investigations are warranted. PMID:28382291

  16. Lack of improvement in survival rates for women under 50 with endometrial cancer, 2000-2011.

    PubMed

    Rodriguez, Ana M; Schmeler, Kathleen M; Kuo, Yong-Fang

    2016-04-01

    To assess how first course of treatment affects cancer-specific survival in women diagnosed with endometrial cancer younger than 50 years old. Public-use data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program were used. The study included 82,721 women diagnosed with primary, invasive endometrial cancer between 2000 and 2011. We assessed type of treatment using Cox's proportional hazards models to determine survival disparity by age and stage. Cancer-specific survival significantly improved for those aged ≥50 years with late stage, but did not improve for those <50. First course of treatment significantly affected cancer-specific survival for endometrial cancer patients. Regardless of age, survival was greatly improved for late-stage patients who received a combination of surgery and radiation [hazard ratio (HR) 0.62 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.47-0.78] and 0.64 (95 % CI 0.59-0.68)] compared to those who received total hysterectomy with removal of ovaries and tubes. However, the proportion of patients who received combination therapy decreased over time. The magnitude of decrease was larger in patients <50 than in those aged ≥50. Overall, about 24-57 % of the difference in cancer-specific survival over time in patients aged <50 was explained by their initial treatment. Improvement in cancer-specific survival was only seen in older women with late-stage diagnosis. Despite improvements in diagnoses and treatments, the difference in age-specific survival indicates that more should be done to understand why these rates are not improving for those younger than 50 years old.

  17. The impact of disease on the survival and population growth rate of the Tasmanian devil.

    PubMed

    Lachish, Shelly; Jones, Menna; McCallum, Hamish

    2007-09-01

    1. We investigated the impact of a recently emerged disease, Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD), on the survival and population growth rate of a population of Tasmanian devils, Sarcophilus harrisii, on the Freycinet Peninsula in eastern Tasmania. 2. Cormack-Jolly-Seber and multistate mark-recapture models were employed to investigate the impact of DFTD on age- and sex-specific apparent survival and transition rates. Disease impact on population growth rate was investigated using reverse-time mark-recapture models. 3. The arrival of DFTD triggered an immediate and steady decline in apparent survival rates of adults and subadults, the rate of which was predicted well by the increase in disease prevalence in the population over time. 4. Transitions from healthy to diseased state increased with disease prevalence suggesting that the force of infection in the population is increasing and that the epidemic is not subsiding. 5. The arrival of DFTD coincided with a marked, ongoing decline in the population growth rate of the previously stable population, which to date has not been offset by population compensatory responses.

  18. Maintenance of mosquito vectors: effects of blood source on feeding, survival, fecundity, and egg hatching rates.

    PubMed

    Phasomkusolsil, Siriporn; Tawong, Jaruwan; Monkanna, Nantaporn; Pantuwatana, Kanchana; Damdangdee, Nuttapon; Khongtak, Weeraphan; Kertmanee, Yossasin; Evans, Brian P; Schuster, Anthony L

    2013-06-01

    Artificial membrane-feeding techniques have replaced direct feeding on animals for the maintenance of malaria and arbovirus vectors in many laboratories. Membrane feeding facilitates controlled experimentation of pathogen transmission during mosquito feeding. Sheep blood is commonly used due to its availability and low cost. We evaluated the impact of blood source (human, guinea pig, sheep, and hamster via direct feeding) on feeding rates, adult survival, fecundity, hatching rates, and developmental times for five species of laboratory-colonized mosquitoes (Anopheles dirus, An. cracens, An. minimus, An. sawadwongporni, and Ae. aegypti). We found that feeding rates differ among blood sources within mosquito species. Survival, fecundity, and hatching rates were lower in all Anopheles species and Ae. aegypti after membrane feeding on sheep blood. Survival rates seven days post-feeding on sheep blood were significantly lower (P<0.05) for An. dirus (84.2%), An. minimus (67.2%), An. sawadwongporni (51.5%), and An. cracens (35.5%) relative to other blood sources. An. minimus and An. sawadwongporni laid no eggs by seven days post-feeding with sheep blood, while An. dirus and An. cracens produced significantly fewer numbers of eggs and demonstrated significantly lower hatching rates relative to what was observed with the other blood sources. These findings support the conclusion that sheep blood is not a suitable blood source for laboratory rearing of Anopheles spp. © 2013 The Society for Vector Ecology.

  19. [Survival rate of patients with stomach cancer in Peru, 2009-2010].

    PubMed

    Tolentino, Carlos Alvarado; Ojeda, Diego Venegas

    2015-03-01

    Determine the survival rate of patients diagnosed with stomach cancer in 2009-2010 in Peru. A retrospective cohort study was conducted of patients diagnosed with stomach cancer registered in the National Epidemiological Surveillance System (SNVE) of the Directorate General of Epidemiology (DGE) and the Register of Vital Statistics (RHV) of the General Office of Statistics and Information (OGEI) for the years 2009-2010. 3 568 patients of the SNVE were included; 51.5% were men and 48.5% were women; the average age was 63.9 years; 60.07% were 60 years old or older. It was found that 33.6% had intestinal type adenocarcinoma, 18.7% had diffuse type carcinoma, and 4.1% had primary gastric lymphoma. The overall survival rate was 29.7 ± 0.8 months and was better for those under 60 years (P = 0.034), for women (P = 0.014) and for intestinal type adenocarcinoma (P< 0.001). There was no difference (P = 0.713) between the survival rate of gastric lymphomas and adenocarcinomas. In order to evaluate mortality, 6 069 patient records from the RHV were included; national mortality was 10.3 per 100 000 population; the regions with the highest mortality were Huánuco, Huancavelica, and Junín. The general survival rate was 29.7 ± 0.8 months; women, those under 60 years, and patients with intestinal type adenocarcinoma had better survival rates. The highest mortality from stomach cancer is concentrated in the poorest regions of Peru, where it is probable that living conditions facilitate the high communicability of Helicobacter pylori.

  20. Habitat use and survival rates of wintering American woodcocks in coastal South Carolina and Georgia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krementz, D.G.; Seginak, J.T.; Longcore, Jerry R.; Sepik, Greg F.

    1993-01-01

    Habitat use and survival rates of radio-marked American woodcocks (Scolopax minor) were studied during the winter in coastal South Carolina (1988-89) and Georgia (1989-90). Soon after they arrived, woodcocks were captured in mist nets or in modified shorebird traps or by nightlighting. Each bird was weighed, aged, sexed, and fitted with a 4-g radio transmitter and monitored daily until it died or could not be located or until its radio failed. During the day, the woodcocks in South Carolina frequented seasonally flooded stands of gum-oak-willow (Liquidambar-Quercus-Salix) > 75% of the time and <15-year-old pine (Pinus spp.) plantations during the remaining time. The predominantly used understory vegetation was switch cane (Arundinaria gigantica). In Georgia, woodcocks used bottomland hardwoods, young pine plantations (<15-years-old), mature pine-hardwood stands, and clear-cuttings that had regenerated naturally. Wax myrtle (Myrica cerifera) dominated the used understory species at these sites. The woodcocks in South Carolina rarely made daily moves between daytime and nighttime cover, whereas the birds in Georgia made regular flights. At both sites, the daily survival rates of females were low, especially in the absence of losses from hunting. Daily survival rates of females ranged from 0.992 in adults to 0.994 in young. Daily survival rates of males ranged from 1.0 in adults to 0.996 in young. We determined no significant differences in the daily survival rates of woodcocks by age or sex in either South Carolina or Georgia. Probable predators of radio-marked woodcocks included bobcats (Lynx rufus), gray foxes (Urocyon cinereoargenteus), and barred owls (Strix varia).

  1. Tacrolimus confers lower acute rejection rates and better renal allograft survival compared to cyclosporine

    PubMed Central

    Kamel, Mahmoud; Kadian, Manish; Srinivas, Titte; Taber, David; Posadas Salas, Maria Aurora

    2016-01-01

    AIM To compare the impact of tacrolimus (FK) and cyclosporine (CYA) on acute rejection and graft survival and to assess the predominant causes of graft loss between patients receiving these two calcineurin inhibitors (CNIs). METHODS Retrospective review of 1835 patients who received a kidney transplant (KTX) between 1999-2012. Patients were grouped based on initial CNI utilized: 1195 in FK group, 640 in CYA group. Data on baseline characteristics, clinical outcomes, and causes of graft loss in both groups were analyzed. RESULTS Cumulative acute rejection rates were 14% in the FK vs 24% in the CYA group. Despite more marginal donor characteristics in the FK group, these patients had better graft survival rates compared to the CYA group. Three and five year graft survival rates were 88% and 84% respectively in the FK group compared to 79% and 70% respectively in the CYA group (P < 0.001). After multivariate analysis, which controlled for confounders, FK use was a strong predictor for lower acute rejection rates [odds ratio (OR) 0.60, 95%CI: 0.45-0.79] and better renal allograft survival (OR 0.740, 95%CI: 0.58-0.94). Death with a functioning graft was the most common cause of graft loss in both groups. Common causes of death included cardiovascular disease, infections, and malignancies. Chronic allograft nephropathy was also found to be an important cause of graft loss, being more prevalent in the CYA group. CONCLUSION The use of FK-based maintenance immunosuppression therapy is associated with a significantly lower rate of acute rejection and better graft survival compared to CYA-based regimen. Individualizing immunosuppression through risk-stratified CNI choice may lead to improved outcomes across all spectra of KTX patients. PMID:28058220

  2. Graft survival rate of renal transplantation during a period of 10 years in Iran

    PubMed Central

    Shahbazi, Fatemeh; Ranjbaran, Mehdi; Karami-far, Simin; Soori, Hamid; Manesh, Hadi Jafari

    2015-01-01

    Background: Kidney transplantation is a preferred treatment for many patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and is far more profitable than hemodialysis. Analyzing renal transplantation data can help to evaluate the effectiveness of transplantation interventions. The aim of this study was to determine the organ survival rate after kidney transplantation during a period of 10 years (March 2001-March 2011) among transplanted patients in Arak, Markazi Province, Iran. Materials and Methods: In this historical cohort study, all recipients of kidney transplantation from Arak, Markazi Province, Iran who had medical records in Valiasr Hospital and “charity for kidney patients” of Arak, Markazi Province, Iran during a period of 10 years from March 2001 to March 2011 were included. Data collected by using checklists were completed from patients’ hospital records. Kaplan-Meier method was used to determine the graft cumulative survival rate, log-rank test to compare survival curves in subgroups, and Cox regression model to define the hazard ratio and for ruling out the intervening factors. Statistical analysis was conducted by Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) 20 and Stata 11. Results: Mean duration of follow-up was 55.43 ± 42.02 months. By using the Kaplan-Meier method, the cumulative probability of graft survival at 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 years was 99.1, 97.7, 94.3, 85.7, and 62.1%, respectively. The number of dialysis by controlling the effect of other variables had a significant association with the risk of graft failure [hazard ratios and 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.47 (1.02-2.13)]. Conclusion: This study showed that the graft survival rate was satisfactory in this community and was similar to the results of single-center studies in the world. Dialysis time after transplantation was a significant predictor of survival in the recipients of kidney transplantation that should be considered. PMID:26941807

  3. Non-Rated Air Force Line Officer Attrition Rates Using Survival Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-03-26

    to maximize the projected manning of the lowest manned career field in 30 years. This optimization is subject to several constriants, surch as the...each career field. The Air Force conducts its force structure management responsibility by com- paring historical attrition rates to current manpower...requirements for each AFSC to determine the “optimal” number of officers needed in each accession yeargroup over a 30-year career . Personnel analysts

  4. Nest survival rate of Reeves's pheasant (Syrmaticus reevesii) based on artificial nest experiments.

    PubMed

    Luo, Xu; Zhao, Yu-Ze; Ma, Jing; Li, Jian-Qiang; Xu, Ji-Liang

    2017-01-18

    To explore the nest survival rate of Reeves's pheasant(Syrmaticus reevesii) and the nest-site factors that affect it, we conducted artificial nest experiments with reference to natural nests at Dongzhai National Nature Reserve(DNNR), Henan Province and Pingjingguan, Hubei Province from April to June 2014 simulating the situation in its early and later breeding season. We also determined distance characteristics of the nest sites by ArcGIS 10.0. Nest survival models were constructed in Program MARK for data analysis. Results indicated that in the early breeding season, the apparent survival rate(ASR) in DNNR(52.4%) was significantly greater than that in Pingjingguan(13.5%), and the ASR in the later breeding season in DNNR(26.7%) was not indistinctively correlated with Pingjingguan(3.2%). The daily survival rate(DSR) in the later breeding season was 93.8% in DNNR and 92.0% in Pingjingguan, respectively. The DSRs were both negatively correlated with nest distance to forest edges and settlements. The DSR in Pingjingguan was positively correlated with nest distance to paths and negatively correlated with nest distance to water sources. However, the DSR in DNNR was negatively correlated with nest distance to paths but positively correlated with nest distance to water sources.

  5. Nest survival rate of Reeves's pheasant (Syrmaticus reevesii) based on artificial nest experiments

    PubMed Central

    Luo, Xu; Zhao, Yu-Ze; Ma, Jing; Li, Jian-Qiang; Xu, Ji-Liang

    2017-01-01

    To explore the nest survival rate of Reeves's pheasant (Syrmaticus reevesii) and the nest-site factors that affect it, we conducted artificial nest experiments with reference to natural nests at Dongzhai National Nature Reserve (DNNR), Henan Province and Pingjingguan, Hubei Province from April to June 2014 simulating the situation in its early and later breeding season. We also determined distance characteristics of the nest sites using ArcGIS 10.0. Nest survival models were constructed in Program MARK for data analysis. Results indicated that in the early breeding season, the apparent survival rate (ASR) in DNNR (52.4%) was significantly greater than that in Pingjingguan (13.5%), and the ASR in the later breeding season in DNNR (26.7%) was not indistinctively correlated with Pingjingguan (3.2%). The daily survival rate (DSR) in the later breeding season was 93.8% in DNNR and 92.0% in Pingjingguan, respectively. The DSRs were both negatively correlated with nest distance to forest edges and settlements. The DSR in Pingjingguan was positively correlated with nest distance to paths and negatively correlated with nest distance to water sources. However, the DSR in DNNR was negatively correlated with nest distance to paths but positively correlated with nest distance to water sources. PMID:28271670

  6. A retrospective study on related factors affecting the survival rate of dental implants

    PubMed Central

    Kang, Jeong-Kyung; Lee, Ki; Lee, Yong-Sang; Park, Pil-Kyoo

    2011-01-01

    PURPOSE The aim of this retrospective study is to analyze the relationship between local factors and survival rate of dental implant which had been installed and restored in Seoul Veterans Hospital dental center for past 10 years. And when the relationship is found out, it could be helpful to predict the prognosis of dental implants. MATERIALS AND METHODS A retrospective study of patients receiving root-shaped screw-type dental implants placed from January 2000 to December 2009 was conducted. 6385 implants were placed in 3755 patients. The following data were collected from the dental records and radiographs: patient's age, gender, implant type and surface, length, diameter, location of implant placement, bone quality, prosthesis type. The correlations between these data and survival rate were analyzed. Statistical analysis was performed with the use of Kaplan-Meier analysis, Chi-square test and odds ratio. RESULTS In all, 6385 implants were placed in 3755 patients (3120 male, 635 female; mean age 65 ± 10.58 years). 108 implants failed and the cumulative survival rate was 96.33%. There were significant differences in age, implant type and surface, length, location and prosthesis type (P<.05). No significant differences were found in relation to the following factors: gender, diameter and bone quality (P>.05). CONCLUSION Related factors such as age, implant type, length, location and prosthesis type had a significant effect on the implant survival. PMID:22259704

  7. Survival rates of breast cancer: a hospital-based study from northeast of Thailand.

    PubMed

    Poum, Amornsak; Kamsa-ard, Supot; Promthet, Supannee

    2012-01-01

    A retrospective cohort study was carried out with 340 female breast cancer at a teaching university in northeast of Thailand recruited and followed-up until the end of 2006. Survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. 161 cases were alive after five years and 58 patients were lost to follow-up. The overall observed survival rates at 1, 3 and 5 years were 83.3%, 59.9% and 42.9%, respectively. When analysis was conducted for stage combined into 2 groups, early (stage I, II and unknown) and late (stage III and IV), the 5-year survival rate for early stage (60%; 95%CI: 0.51-0.67), was higher than for late stage (27%; 95%CI: 0.19-0.34) with high statistical significance (p<0.001). The hazard ratio of patients with stage IV was 11.6 times greater than for stage I (p=0.03). The findings indicate that the different stages of breast cancer markedly effect the overall survival rate.

  8. Effect of loading time on the survival rate of anodic oxidized implants: prospective multicenter study

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Seok-Gyu; Yun, Pil-Young; Park, Hyun-Sik; Shim, June-Sung; Hwang, Jung-Won

    2012-01-01

    PURPOSE The purpose of this prospective study was to evaluate the effect of early loading on survival rate or clinical parameter of anodic oxidized implants during the 12-month postloading period. MATERIALS AND METHODS Total 69 implants were placed in 42 patients. Anodic oxidized implants (GS II, Osstem Cor., Busan, Korea) placed on the posterior mandibles were divided into two groups, according to their prosthetic loading times: test group (2 to 6 weeks), and control group (3 to 4 months). The implant survival rates were determined during one-year postloading period and analyzed by Kaplan-Meier method. The radiographic peri-implant bone loss and periodontal parameters were also evaluated and statistically analyzed by unpaired t-test. RESULTS Total 69 implants were placed in 42 patients. The cumulative postloading implant survival rates were 88.89% in test group, compared to 100% in control group (P<.05). Periimplant marginal bone loss (T: 0.27±0.54 mm, C: 0.40±0.55 mm) and periodontal parameters showed no significant difference between the groups (P>.05). CONCLUSION Within the limitation of the present study, implant survival was affected by early loading on the anodic oxidized implants placed on posterior mandibles during one-year follow-up. Early implant loading did not influence peri-implant marginal bone loss, and periodontal parameters. PMID:22439096

  9. 78 FR 8596 - Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., Commercial/Actuarial/ Information Delivery Services (IDS...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-02-06

    .../ Information Delivery Services (IDS)/Corporate & Financial Reporting Group, Hartford, CT; Notice of Negative... Services Group, Inc., Commercial/Actuarial/Information Delivery Services (IDS)/Corporate & Financial... Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., Commercial/Actuarial/Information Delivery Services...

  10. An Overview of the Society of Actuaries and Its Education Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klugman, Stuart; Long, Gena

    2014-01-01

    The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is the world's largest actuarial organization. This article describes the SOA with particular attention paid to its education and qualification processes and resources available for university and college programs.

  11. An Overview of the Society of Actuaries and Its Education Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klugman, Stuart; Long, Gena

    2014-01-01

    The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is the world's largest actuarial organization. This article describes the SOA with particular attention paid to its education and qualification processes and resources available for university and college programs.

  12. 42 CFR 440.340 - Actuarial report for benchmark-equivalent coverage.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... individual who is a member of the American Academy of Actuaries (AAA). (2) Using generally accepted actuarial principles and methodologies of the AAA. (3) Using a standardized set of utilization and price factors. (4...

  13. Survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of an important mesopredator: the northern raccoon.

    PubMed

    Troyer, Elizabeth M; Cameron Devitt, Susan E; Sunquist, Melvin E; Goswami, Varun R; Oli, Madan K

    2014-01-01

    Populations of mesopredators (mid-sized mammalian carnivores) are expanding in size and range amid declining apex predator populations and ever-growing human presence, leading to significant ecological impacts. Despite their obvious importance, population dynamics have scarcely been studied for most mesopredator species. Information on basic population parameters and processes under a range of conditions is necessary for managing these species. Here we investigate survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of a widely distributed and abundant mesopredator, the northern raccoon (Procyon lotor), using Pradel's temporal symmetry models and >6 years of monthly capture-mark-recapture data collected in a protected area. Monthly apparent survival probability was higher for females (0.949, 95% CI = 0.936-0.960) than for males (0.908, 95% CI = 0.893-0.920), while monthly recruitment rate was higher for males (0.091, 95% CI = 0.078-0.106) than for females (0.054, 95% CI = 0.042-0.067). Finally, monthly realized population growth rate was 1.000 (95% CI = 0.996-1.004), indicating that our study population has reached a stable equilibrium in this relatively undisturbed habitat. There was little evidence for substantial temporal variation in population growth rate or its components. Our study is one of the first to quantify survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate of raccoons using long-term data and rigorous statistical models.

  14. Survival and recovery rates of mottled ducks banded in Texas and Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Haukos, David A.

    2015-01-01

    The Western Gulf Coast population of the mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) is dependent on the Gulf coastal marsh to complete its entire life cycle. Band recovery data can be used to monitor mottled duck populations by estimating annual survival, indexing harvest rate, and assessing movements. Band returns from hunting seasons 1997–2013 were used to evaluate factors influencing annual survival, recovery rates, and movements of mottled ducks in Texas and Louisiana. For banding years of 1997–2013, 58,349 normal, wild mottled ducks were banded and released in Texas and Louisiana. Since 2002, 86% of mottled duck bandings have occurred on the Chenier Plain of Texas and Louisiana. Hunters shot, recovered, and reported 7,061birds with bands during this period. Direct recovery rates were greater for juveniles than adults but changed little since the 1970s. Estimates of annual survival did not differ between Texas and Louisiana, but did among years and between sex and age classes. Adult male and juvenile female mottled ducks had the greatest and lowest annual survival rates, respectively. Recovery of birds banded on the Chenier Plain was four times greater for birds banded in Texas and harvested in Louisiana than banded in Louisiana and harvested in Texas. Much of the current inference of results from banding mottled ducks is limited to the Chenier Plain. To monitor the entire Western Gulf Coast population of mottled ducks, managers can consider expanding operational banding operations with annual quotas, which would improve survival and recovery estimates and allow for inference beyond the Chenier Plain region.

  15. Rectal cancer. Treatment advances that reduce recurrence rates and lengthen survival.

    PubMed

    Sexe, R; Miedema, B W

    1993-07-01

    The risk of malignant disease arising in rectal mucosa is high. Surgery is the most effective form of treatment but results in cure in only 50% of patients. Adjuvant preoperative radiation therapy reduces the likelihood of local recurrence but does not improve survival rates. Fluorouracil is the most effective agent for adjuvant chemotherapy and slightly improves survival when given after surgery. Combining radiation therapy with chemotherapy appears to have a synergistic effect, and recent studies show that providing this combination after surgery improves survival. Future trends in the treatment of rectal cancer are expected to include expanded use of local excision to preserve anal sphincter function, preoperative use of a combination of radiation therapy and chemotherapy, perioperative use of chemotherapy combined with immunostimulating therapy, and use of tumor antibodies for diagnostic and therapeutic purposes.

  16. Effects of climatic variation on survival rates in northern spotted owls

    SciTech Connect

    Franklin, A.B.; Anderson, D.R.; Gutierrez, R.J. |

    1995-09-01

    We examined the effect of climate on the annual survival of marked northern spotted owls in northwest California between 1985 through 1994. We tested a priori predictions concerning the effects of precipitation and temperature during critical environmental and life history periods using mark-recapture models where logit(survival) was modeled as a function of the climatic covariates. Additional factors considered in models included sex, age and random time effects. We used Akaike`s Information Criterion to select parsimonious models in lieu of time effects. We used Akaike`s Information Criterion to select parsimonious models in lieu of a strict hypothesis-testing framework. Models incorporating climatic covariates, such as precipitation during the winter and nesting periods, explained variation in survival rates significantly better than models with time effects. These results have important implications for the life history of this species as well as it`s conservation as a threatened species.

  17. Actuarial Science at One Four-Year Comprehensive University

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Charlwood, Kevin E.

    2014-01-01

    Building an Actuarial Science program designated as advanced requires dedicated faculty, support from the administration, and a core group of strong students. Washburn University may serve as a model for those wishing to start or enhance such a program at their institution. We face three main ongoing challenges: first, the hiring and retention of…

  18. Starting an Actuarial Science Major at a Liberal Arts College

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mills, Mark A.

    2014-01-01

    The article provides details of the process of starting an actuarial science major at a small, liberal arts college. Some critique of the major is included, as well as some challenges that may be faced by others wanting to start such a major at their institution.

  19. Conversations with your actuary: getting to the right number.

    PubMed

    Frese, Richard C

    2013-05-01

    A healthcare finance leader can guarantee recognition of his or her organization's insurance program and better manage the program's liability by discussing changes in the following areas with an actuary: Claims management. Exposure. Coverage or retention Financial reporting of losses. Management goals. Other insurance and operational matters.

  20. Quantitative Synthesis: An Actuarial Base for Planning Impact Evaluations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cordray, David S.; Sonnefeld, L. Joseph

    1985-01-01

    There are numerous micro-level methods decisions associated with planning an impact evaluation. Quantitative synthesis methods can be used to construct an actuarial data base for establishing the likelihood of achieving desired sample sizes, statistical power, and measurement characteristics. (Author/BS)

  1. Starting an Actuarial Science Major at a Liberal Arts College

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mills, Mark A.

    2014-01-01

    The article provides details of the process of starting an actuarial science major at a small, liberal arts college. Some critique of the major is included, as well as some challenges that may be faced by others wanting to start such a major at their institution.

  2. Actuarial Science at One Four-Year Comprehensive University

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Charlwood, Kevin E.

    2014-01-01

    Building an Actuarial Science program designated as advanced requires dedicated faculty, support from the administration, and a core group of strong students. Washburn University may serve as a model for those wishing to start or enhance such a program at their institution. We face three main ongoing challenges: first, the hiring and retention of…

  3. Predicting Success for Actuarial Students in Undergraduate Mathematics Courses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Richard Manning; Schumacher, Phyllis A.

    2005-01-01

    A study of undergraduate actuarial graduates found that math SAT scores, verbal SAT scores, percentile rank in high school graduating class, and percentage score on a college mathematics placement exam had some relevance to forecasting the students' grade point averages in their major. For both males and females, percentile rank in high school…

  4. Study of psychosocial parameters related to the survival rate of renal transplantation in children.

    PubMed

    Mongeau, J G; Clermont, M J; Robitaille, P; Plante, A; Jéquier, J C; Godbout, C; Guertin, M C; Beaulieu, M A; Sarrazin, F

    1997-10-01

    The purpose of the present study was to assess the effect of intelligence, schooling, psychomotor, emotional, and social status on renal graft survival in children. Sixty-two cadaver renal transplant recipients were evaluated retrospectively and the influence of sex, age, weight, and the use of cyclosporin A (CyA) on the success rate of the graft from 1 to 5 years later was analyzed. Psychological and social scores were devised and included as factors predictive of survival of the graft. Univariate analysis showed that the following variables predicted renal graft survival: the use of CyA (P = 0.0002), pre-transplant dialysis (P = 0.04), weight at the time of transplantation (P = 0.072), and psychological scores (P = 0.064). Association analysis demonstrated that pre-transplantation dialysis was only a chance association and therefore the parameter was discarded. Multivariate analysis showed that the predictive parameters were the use of CyA, sex, weight in kilograms, and the psychological score. An equation was then derived from variables that predict the probability that a specific patient's graft will survive more than t months. This equation is the estimated survival distribution function and is as follow: S (t) = Exp {-Exp[-(0.8882x1 - 1.827x2 + 0.037x3 - 0.1746x4) + ln t - 4.7862]} where S (t) = the survival at t months post transplantation, x1 = sex (male 1, female 2), x2 = CyA (yes 1, no 2), x3 = weight in kilograms, and x4 = psychological score. The major impact of psychological factors on renal graft survival was surprising.

  5. Investigating Rates of Hunting and Survival in Declining European Lapwing Populations

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Understanding effects of harvest on population dynamics is of major interest, especially for declining species. European lapwing Vanellus vanellus populations increased from the 1960s until the 1980s and declined strongly thereafter. About 400,000 lapwings are harvested annually and it is thus of high conservation relevance to assess whether hunting was a main cause for the observed changes in lapwing population trends. We developed a multi-event cause-specific mortality model which we applied to a long-term ring-recovery data set (1960–2010) of > 360,000 records to estimate survival and cause-specific mortalities. We found no temporal change in survival over the last 50 years for first-year (FY) and older birds (after first-year; AFY) originating from different ringing areas. Mean survival was high, around 0.60 and 0.80 for FY and AFY individuals, respectively. The proportion of total mortality due to hunting was <0.10 over the study period and the estimated proportion of harvested individuals (kill rate) was <0.05 in each year. Our result of constant survival indicates that demographic processes other than survival were responsible for the pronounced change in lapwing population trends in the 1980s. Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that hunting was not a significant contributor to the large-scale decline of lapwing populations. To halt the ongoing decline of European lapwing populations management should focus on life history stages other than survival (e.g. productivity). Further analyses are required to investigate the contribution of other demographic rates to the decline of lapwings and to identify the most efficient conservation actions. PMID:27685660

  6. Environmental effects on survival rates: robust regression, recovery planning and endangered Atlantic salmon

    PubMed Central

    Bowlby, Heather D; Gibson, A Jamie F

    2015-01-01

    Describing how population-level survival rates are influenced by environmental change becomes necessary during recovery planning to identify threats that should be the focus for future remediation efforts. However, the ways in which data are analyzed have the potential to change our ecological understanding and thus subsequent recommendations for remedial actions to address threats. In regression, distributional assumptions underlying short time series of survival estimates cannot be investigated a priori and data likely contain points that do not follow the general trend (outliers) as well as contain additional variation relative to an assumed distribution (overdispersion). Using juvenile survival data from three endangered Atlantic salmon Salmo salar L. populations in response to hydrological variation, four distributions for the response were compared using lognormal and generalized linear models (GLM). The influence of outliers as well as overdispersion was investigated by comparing conclusions from robust regressions with these lognormal models and GLMs. The analyses strongly supported the use of a lognormal distribution for survival estimates (i.e., modeling the instantaneous rate of mortality as the response) and would have led to ambiguity in the identification of significant hydrological predictors as well as low overall confidence in the predicted relationships if only GLMs had been considered. However, using robust regression to evaluate the effect of additional variation and outliers in the data relative to regression assumptions resulted in a better understanding of relationships between hydrological variables and survival that could be used for population-specific recovery planning. This manuscript highlights how a systematic analysis that explicitly considers what monitoring data represent and where variation is likely to come from is required in order to draw meaningful conclusions when analyzing changes in survival relative to environmental

  7. Survival and complication rates of implant-supported fixed partial dentures with cantilevers: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Zurdo, José; Romão, Cristina; Wennström, Jan L

    2009-09-01

    The objective of the present systematic review was to analyze the potential effect of incorporation of cantilever extensions on the survival rate of implant-supported fixed partial dental prostheses (FPDPs) and the incidence of technical and biological complications, as reported in longitudinal studies with at least 5 years of follow-up. A MEDLINE search was conducted up to and including November 2008 for longitudinal studies with a mean follow-up period of at least 5 years. Two reviewers performed screening and data abstraction independently. Prosthesis-based data on survival/failure rate, technical complications (prosthesis-related problems, implant loss) and biological complications (marginal bone loss) were analyzed. The search provided 103 titles with abstract. Full-text analysis was performed of 12 articles, out of which three were finally included. Two of the studies had a prospective or retrospective case-control design, whereas the third was a prospective cohort study. The 5-year survival rate of cantilever FPDPs varied between 89.9% and 92.7% (weighted mean 91.9%), with implant fracture as the main cause for failures. The corresponding survival rate for FPDPs without cantilever extensions was 96.3-96.2% (weighted mean 95.8%). Technical complications related to the supra-constructions in the three included studies were reported to occur at a frequency of 13-26% (weighted mean 20.3%) for cantilever FPDPs compared with 0-12% (9.7%) for non-cantilever FPDPs. The most common complications were minor porcelain fractures and bridge-screw loosening. For cantilever FPDPs, the 5-year event-free survival rate varied between 66.7% and 79.2% (weighted mean 71.7%) and between 83.1% and 96.3% (weighted mean 85.9%) for non-cantilever FPDPs. No statistically significant differences were reported with regard to peri-implant bone-level change between the two prosthetic groups, either at the prosthesis or at the implant level. Data on implant-supported FPDPs with cantilever

  8. 20 CFR 901.20 - Standards of performance of actuarial services.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 4 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Standards of performance of actuarial services. 901.20 Section 901.20 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS... exercise due care, skill, prudence and diligence when performing actuarial services under ERISA and the...

  9. The Role of an Actuarial Director in the Development of an Introductory Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Staples, Susan G.

    2014-01-01

    We describe the roles and duties of a director in developing an introductory actuarial program. Degree plan design, specialized exam courses, internship classes, coordination of efforts with Economics and Finance Departments, opportunities for creating a minor in actuarial mathematics, actuarial clubs, career advice, and interaction with actuarial…

  10. Including an Exam P/1 Prep Course in a Growing Actuarial Science Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wakefield, Thomas P.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe the actuarial science program at our university and the development of a course to enhance students' problem solving skills while preparing them for Exam P/1 of the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and the Casualty Actuary Society (CAS). The Exam P/1 prep course, formally titled Mathematical Foundations of…

  11. The Undergraduate Statistics Major--A Prelude to Actuarial Science Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ratliff, Michael I.; Williams, Raymond E.

    Recently there has been increased interest related to the Actuarial Science field. An actuary is a business professional who uses mathematical skills to define, analyze, and solve financial and social problems. This paper examines: (1) the interface between Statistical and Actuarial Science training; (2) statistical courses corresponding to…

  12. 75 FR 6359 - Federal Advisory Committee; DoD Board of Actuaries; Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-02-09

    ... of the Secretary Federal Advisory Committee; DoD Board of Actuaries; Meeting AGENCY: Department of... amended), and 41 CFR 102-3.150, the Department of Defense announces that the DoD Board of Actuaries will..., VA 22203. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Inger Pettygrove at the DoD Office of the Actuary, 4040...

  13. 75 FR 22754 - Federal Advisory Committee; Department of Defense Board of Actuaries; Charter Renewal

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-04-30

    ... of the Secretary Federal Advisory Committee; Department of Defense Board of Actuaries; Charter... Defense gives notice that it is renewing the charter for the Department of Defense Board of Actuaries... members appointed by the Secretary of Defense from among qualified professional actuaries who are...

  14. 76 FR 67774 - Actuarial Advisory Committee With Respect to the Railroad Retirement Account; Notice of Public...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-02

    ... hold a meeting on November 14, 2011, at 9:30 a.m. at the office of the Chief Actuary of the U.S... experience on which the recommendations are based will have been sent by the Chief Actuary to the Committee... Advisory Committee, cio Chief Actuary, U.S. Railroad Retirement Board, 844 North Rush Street,...

  15. 75 FR 47650 - Actuarial Advisory Committee With Respect to the Railroad Retirement Account; Notice of Public...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-06

    ... hold a meeting on September 23, 2010, at 9:30 a.m. at the office of the Chief Actuary of the U.S... experience on which the recommendations are based will have been sent by the Chief Actuary to the Committee... Advisory Committee, c/o Chief Actuary, U.S. Railroad Retirement Board, 844 North Rush Street,...

  16. 26 CFR 300.8 - Renewal of enrollment of enrolled actuary fee.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Renewal of enrollment of enrolled actuary fee...) PROCEDURE AND ADMINISTRATION USER FEES § 300.8 Renewal of enrollment of enrolled actuary fee. (a) Applicability. This section applies to the renewal of enrollment of enrolled actuaries with the Joint Board...

  17. 77 FR 24233 - Actuarial Advisory Committee With Respect to the Railroad Retirement Account; Notice of Public...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-04-23

    ... hold a meeting on May 30, 2012, at 9:30 a.m. at the office of the Chief Actuary of the U.S. Railroad... communications or notices to the RRB Actuarial Advisory Committee, c/o Chief Actuary, U.S. Railroad...

  18. The Role of an Actuarial Director in the Development of an Introductory Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Staples, Susan G.

    2014-01-01

    We describe the roles and duties of a director in developing an introductory actuarial program. Degree plan design, specialized exam courses, internship classes, coordination of efforts with Economics and Finance Departments, opportunities for creating a minor in actuarial mathematics, actuarial clubs, career advice, and interaction with actuarial…

  19. 20 CFR 901.20 - Standards of performance of actuarial services.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Standards of performance of actuarial services. 901.20 Section 901.20 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS... enrolled actuary shall exercise due care, skill, prudence and diligence to ensure that: (1) The...

  20. 29 CFR 2520.104-42 - Waiver of certain actuarial information in the annual report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 9 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Waiver of certain actuarial information in the annual... Reporting and Disclosure Requirements § 2520.104-42 Waiver of certain actuarial information in the annual... ERISA that the annual report include as part of the actuarial statement (Schedule B) 1 the present...

  1. Including an Exam P/1 Prep Course in a Growing Actuarial Science Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wakefield, Thomas P.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe the actuarial science program at our university and the development of a course to enhance students' problem solving skills while preparing them for Exam P/1 of the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and the Casualty Actuary Society (CAS). The Exam P/1 prep course, formally titled Mathematical Foundations of…

  2. 20 CFR 901.20 - Standards of performance of actuarial services.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 4 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Standards of performance of actuarial services. 901.20 Section 901.20 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS... exercise due care, skill, prudence and diligence when performing actuarial services under ERISA and the...

  3. Statistics of hematologic malignancies in Korea: incidence, prevalence and survival rates from 1999 to 2008

    PubMed Central

    Park, Hyeon Jin; Park, Eun-Hye; Jung, Kyu-Won; Kong, Hyun-Joo; Won, Young-Joo; Lee, Joo Young; Yoon, Jong Hyung; Park, Byung-Kiu; Lee, Hyewon; Eom, Hyeon-Seok

    2012-01-01

    Background The nationwide statistical analysis of hematologic malignancies in Korea has not been reported yet. Methods The Korea Central Cancer Registry and the Korean Society of Hematology jointly investigated domestic incidence rates and prevalence of hematologic malignancies occurred between 1999 and 2008, and analyzed survival rates of patients who were diagnosed between 1993 and 2008. Data of hematologic malignancies from 1993 to 2008 were obtained from the Korean National Cancer Incidence Data base. The crude incidence rates, age-specific incidence rates, age-standardized incidence rates, annual percentage change of incidence, and prevalence from 1999-2008 were calculated. Survival rates for patients diagnosed in 1993-2008 were estimated. Results In 2008, a total of 8,006 cases of hematologic malignancies were occurred, which comprised 4.5% of all malignancies. In all genders, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloid leukemia, and multiple myeloma were most frequent diseases. In terms of age, ages between 60 and 69 were most prevalent. From 1999 to 2008, the age-standardized incidence rates increased from 10.2 to 13.7, and the annual percentage change was 3.9%. The 5-year survival rate increased from 38.2% during 1993-1995 to 55.2% during 2004-2008. As of January 2009, number of patients with 10-year prevalence was 33,130, and with 5- to 10-year prevalence was 10,515. Conclusion This is the first nationwide statistical report of hematologic malignancies in Korea. It could be used as the basic information to help investigate epidemiologic characteristics, evaluate progress during the past years, and establish future strategies for hematologic malignancies. Periodic statistical analysis of hematologic malignancies in Korea should be continued. PMID:22479275

  4. Annual survival rates of adult and immature eastern population tundra swans

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Bart, J.; Limpert, R.J.; Sladen, William J. L.; Hines, J.E.

    1992-01-01

    Tundra swans (Cygnus columbianus ) of the eastern population were neckbanded in Maryland, North Carolina, and Alaska from 1966 through 1990. These swans were resighted and recaptured during autumn, winter, and spring, 1966-1990. Although the original motivation for this study involved swan movements, we wanted to use the resulting data to test hypotheses about sources of variation in swan survival rates. Recaptures of legbanded and neckbanded swans permitted us to estimate neckband loss rates, which were found to vary with age and sex of swans, and number of years since initial application. Estimates of annual neckband retention rate ranged from about 0.50 for adult male swans greater than or equal to 2 years after initial neckbanding to > 0.96 for immature swans and adult females the first year following neckbanding. This variation in neckband loss rates prevented the simple correction of survival estimates to account for such loss. Consequently, we developed a series of multinomial models parameterized with survival, sighting, and neckband retention probabilities for use with the recapture and resighting data.

  5. Impacts of Bokashi on survival and growth rates of Pinus pseudostrobus in community reforestation projects.

    PubMed

    Jaramillo-López, P F; Ramírez, M I; Pérez-Salicrup, D R

    2015-03-01

    Community-based small-scale reforestation practices have been proposed as an alternative to low-efficiency massive reforestations conducted by external agents. These latter conventional reforestations are often carried out in soils that have been seriously degraded and this has indirectly contributed to the introduction of non-native species and/or acceptance of very low seedling survival rates. Bokashi is a fermented soil organic amendment that can be made from almost any available agricultural byproduct, and its beneficial effects in agriculture have been reported in various contexts. Here, we report the results of a community-based small-scale experimental reforestation where the provenance of pine seedlings (local and commercial) and the use of Bokashi as a soil amendment were evaluated. Bokashi was prepared locally by members of a small rural community in central Mexico. Almost two years after the establishment of the trial, survival rates for the unamended and amended local trees were 97-100% while survival of the commercial trees from unamended and amended treatments were 87-93%. Consistently through time, local and commercial seedlings planted in Bokashi-amended soils were significantly taller (x̅ = 152 cm) than those planted in unamended soils (̅x = 86 cm). An unplanned infection by Cronartium quercuum in the first year of the experiment was considered as a covariable. Infected seedlings showed malformations but this did not affect survival and growth rates. Bokashi amendment seems as an inexpensive, locally viable technology to increase seedling survival and growth and to help recover deforested areas where soils have been degraded. This allows local stakeholders to see more rapid results while helping them to maintain their interest in conservation activities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Connecting clinical and actuarial prediction with rule-based methods.

    PubMed

    Fokkema, Marjolein; Smits, Niels; Kelderman, Henk; Penninx, Brenda W J H

    2015-06-01

    Meta-analyses comparing the accuracy of clinical versus actuarial prediction have shown actuarial methods to outperform clinical methods, on average. However, actuarial methods are still not widely used in clinical practice, and there has been a call for the development of actuarial prediction methods for clinical practice. We argue that rule-based methods may be more useful than the linear main effect models usually employed in prediction studies, from a data and decision analytic as well as a practical perspective. In addition, decision rules derived with rule-based methods can be represented as fast and frugal trees, which, unlike main effects models, can be used in a sequential fashion, reducing the number of cues that have to be evaluated before making a prediction. We illustrate the usability of rule-based methods by applying RuleFit, an algorithm for deriving decision rules for classification and regression problems, to a dataset on prediction of the course of depressive and anxiety disorders from Penninx et al. (2011). The RuleFit algorithm provided a model consisting of 2 simple decision rules, requiring evaluation of only 2 to 4 cues. Predictive accuracy of the 2-rule model was very similar to that of a logistic regression model incorporating 20 predictor variables, originally applied to the dataset. In addition, the 2-rule model required, on average, evaluation of only 3 cues. Therefore, the RuleFit algorithm appears to be a promising method for creating decision tools that are less time consuming and easier to apply in psychological practice, and with accuracy comparable to traditional actuarial methods. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Epidemiological and clinical factors impact on the benefit of riluzole in the survival rates of patients with ALS.

    PubMed

    Fávero, Francis Meire; Voos, Mariana Callil; Castro, Isac de; Caromano, Fátima Aparecida; Oliveira, Acary Souza Bulle

    2017-08-01

    To investigate the impact of epidemiological and clinical factors on the benefit of riluzole in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). The survival rate of 578 patients with ALS (1999-2011) was analyzed by descriptive statistics and Kaplan-Meier curves. Considering the median of the sample survival time (19 months), patients were divided in two groups: below (B19) and above the median (A19). Kaplan-Meier curves compared the survival rates of patients treated with riluzole and with patients who did not take the medication. Riluzole increased the survival rates of patients with lower limb onset who were diagnosed after the first appointment in B19. Patients with bulbar onset and diagnosed on the first, or after the first appointment showed higher survival rates in A19. Males lived longer than females in both groups. Epidemiological and clinical factors influenced the benefit of riluzole in the survival rates of patients with ALS.

  8. Survival rates of porcelain laminate restoration based on different incisal preparation designs: An analysis

    PubMed Central

    Shetty, Ashish; Kaiwar, Anjali; Shubhashini, N; Ashwini, P; Naveen, DN; Adarsha, MS; Shetty, Mitha; Meena, N

    2011-01-01

    Background: Veneer restorations provide a valid conservative alternative to complete coverage as they avoid aggressive dental preparation; thus, maintaining tooth structure. Initially, laminates were placed on the unprepared tooth surface. Although there is as yet no consensus as to whether or not teeth should be prepared for laminate veneers, currently, more conservative preparations have been advocated. Because of their esthetic appeal, biocompatibility and adherence to the physiology of minimal-invasive dentistry, porcelain laminate veneers have now become a restoration of choice. Currently, there is a lack of clinical consensus regarding the type of design preferred for laminates. Widely varying survival rates and methods for its estimation have been reported for porcelain veneers over approximately 2–10 years. Relatively few studies have been reported in the literature that use survival estimates, which allow for valid study comparisons between the types of preparation designs used. No survival analysis has been undertaken for the designs used. The purpose of this article is to attempt to review the survival rates of veneers based on different incisal preparation designs from both clinical and non-clinical studies. Aims and Objectives: The purpose of this study is to review both clinical and non-clinical studies to determine the survival rates of veneers based on different incisal preparation designs. A further objective of the study is to understand which is the most successful design in terms of preparation. Materials and Methods This study evaluated the existing literature – survival rates of veneers based on incisal preparation designs. The search strategy involved MEDLINE, BITTORRENT and other databases. Statistical Analysis Data were tabulated. Because of variability in the follow-up period in different studies, the follow-up period was extrapolated to 10 years in common for all of them. Accordingly, the failure rate was then estimated and The

  9. Simultaneous use of mark-recapture and radiotelemetry to estimate survival, movement, and capture rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Powell, L.A.; Conroy, M.J.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Krementz, D.G.

    2000-01-01

    Biologists often estimate separate survival and movement rates from radio-telemetry and mark-recapture data from the same study population. We describe a method for combining these data types in a single model to obtain joint, potentially less biased estimates of survival and movement that use all available data. We furnish an example using wood thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) captured at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in central Georgia in 1996. The model structure allows estimation of survival and capture probabilities, as well as estimation of movements away from and into the study area. In addition, the model structure provides many possibilities for hypothesis testing. Using the combined model structure, we estimated that wood thrush weekly survival was 0.989 ? 0.007 ( ?SE). Survival rates of banded and radio-marked individuals were not different (alpha hat [S_radioed, ~ S_banded]=log [S hat _radioed/ S hat _banded]=0.0239 ? 0.0435). Fidelity rates (weekly probability of remaining in a stratum) did not differ between geographic strata (psi hat=0.911 ? 0.020; alpha hat [psi11, psi22]=0.0161 ? 0.047), and recapture rates ( = 0.097 ? 0.016) banded and radio-marked individuals were not different (alpha hat [p_radioed, p_banded]=0.145 ? 0.655). Combining these data types in a common model resulted in more precise estimates of movement and recapture rates than separate estimation, but ability to detect stratum or mark-specific differences in parameters was week. We conducted simulation trials to investigate the effects of varying study designs on parameter accuracy and statistical power to detect important differences. Parameter accuracy was high (relative bias [RBIAS] <2 %) and confidence interval coverage close to nominal, except for survival estimates of banded birds for the 'off study area' stratum, which were negatively biased (RBIAS -7 to -15%) when sample sizes were small (5-10 banded or radioed animals 'released' per time interval). To provide

  10. Modeling the effect of temperature on survival rate of Listeria monocytogenes in yogurt.

    PubMed

    Szczawiński, J; Szczawińska, M E; Łobacz, A; Jackowska-Tracz, A

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the study was to (i) evaluate the behavior of Listeria monocytogenes in a commercially produced yogurt, (ii) determine the survival/inactivation rates of L. monocytogenes during cold storage of yogurt and (iii) to generate primary and secondary mathematical models to predict the behavior of these bacteria during storage at different temperatures. The samples of yogurt were inoculated with the mixture of three L. monocytogenes strains and stored at 3, 6, 9, 12 and 15°C for 16 days. The number of listeriae was determined after 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14 and 16 days of storage. From each sample a series of decimal dilutions were prepared and plated onto ALOA agar (agar for Listeria according to Ottaviani and Agosti). It was found that applied temperature and storage time significantly influenced the survival rate of listeriae (p<0.01). The number of L. monocytogenes in all the samples decreased linearly with storage time. The slowest decrease in the number of the bacteria was found in the samples stored at 6°C (D-10 value = 243.9 h), whereas the highest reduction in the number of the bacteria was observed in the samples stored at 15°C (D-10 value = 87.0 h). The number of L. monocytogenes was correlated with the pH value of the samples (p<0.01). The natural logarithm of the mean survival/inactivation rates of L. monocytogenes calculated from the primary model was fitted to two secondary models, namely linear and polynomial. Mathematical equations obtained from both secondary models can be applied as a tool for the prediction of the survival/inactivation rate of L. monocytogenes in yogurt stored under temperature range from 3 to 15°C, however, the polynomial model gave a better fit to the experimental data.

  11. Temporal variation in survival and recovery rates of lesser scaup: A response

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arnold, Todd W.; Afton, Alan D.; Anteau, Michael J.; Koons, David N.; Nicolai, Chris A.

    2017-01-01

    We recently analyzed long-term (1951–2011) continental band-recovery data from lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) and demonstrated that harvest rates declined through time, but annual survival rates exhibited no such trends; moreover, annual harvest and survival rates were uncorrelated for all age-sex classes. We therefore concluded that declining fecundity was most likely responsible for recent population declines, rather than changes in harvest or survival. Lindberg et al. (2017) critiqued our conclusions, arguing that we did little more than fail to reject a null hypothesis of compensatory mortality, postulated ecologically unrealistic changes in fecundity, and failed to give sufficient consideration to additive harvest mortality. Herein, we re-summarize our original evidence indicating that harvest has been compensatory, or at most weakly additive, and demonstrate that our analysis had sufficient power to detect strongly additive mortality if it occurred. We further demonstrate that our conclusions were not confounded by population size, band loss, or individual heterogeneity, as suggested by Lindberg et al. (2017), and we provide additional support for our conjecture that low fecundity played a major role in declining scaup populations during 1983–2006. We therefore reiterate our original management recommendations: given low harvest rates and lack of demonstrable effect on scaup survival, harvest regulations could return to more liberal frameworks, and waterfowl biologists should work together to continue banding lesser scaup and use these data to explore alternative hypotheses to identify the true ecological causes of population change, given that it is unlikely to be excessive harvest. 

  12. Nasopharyngeal carcinoma in the people's Republic of China: incidence, treatment, and survival rates

    SciTech Connect

    Hwang, H.N.

    1983-10-01

    The incidence, treatment regimens, and survival rates for nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China, one of the most common cancers in that country, are reviewed. Although treated almost exclusively with megavoltage photon therapy, in some cancer centers intracavitary radium insertions are used to increase the radiation dose to the primary tumor site. A histological study of these tumors shows that patients whose tumors are well-differentiated and contain an abundance of lymphocytes have the best prognosis.

  13. [Survival rate and complications of stemmed shoulder prostheses in primary osteoarthritis].

    PubMed

    Irlenbusch, U

    2013-07-01

    Survivorship and survival rate of shoulder prostheses can be affected by a large number of possible complications. An evaluation of the current literature and the prosthesis register, however, shows an overall low revision (1.39 revisions per 100 observation years) and loosening rates (implant-related 10-year survival rate up to 99%), comparable to that of hip and knee endoprostheses. It must be emphasized that cementless stems more often cause problems than cemented components (4.34 compared to 0.77 revisions per 100 observation years) and that secondary rotator cuff rupture (4.6%; functional deficit up to 30%) occurs more frequently than was generally assumed and is often not diagnosed or treated adequately. The infection rate amounts to approximately 1% and according to latest literature the dislocation rate is regressive and is estimated to be approximately 5%.The low complication and revision rates do not justify the replacement of stemmed prostheses by stemless implants and short stem prostheses and the preference given to the new implants is attributed more to the better revision possibilities and easier convertibility into inverse prostheses.

  14. Survival rates of radio-collared female polar bears and their dependent young

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amstrup, Steven C.; Durner, G.M.

    1995-01-01

    Polar bears are hunted throughout most of their range. In addition to hunting, polar bears of the Beaufort Sea region are exposed to mineral and hydrocarbon extraction and related human activities such as shipping, road building, and seismic testing. As human populations increase and demands for polar bears and other arctic resources escalate, reliable estimates of survivorship of polar bears are needed to predict and manage the impacts of those activities. We used the Kaplan-Meier model to estimate annual survival (with 95% confidence intervals) for radio-collared female polar bears and their dependent young that were followed during a 12-year study in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea. Survival of adult female polar bears was higher than had been previously thought: S = 0.969 (range 0.952-0.983). If human-caused mortalities were deleted, the computed survival rate was 0.996 (0.990-1.002). Survival of young from den exit to weaning was 0.676 (0.634-0.701). Survival during the second year of life, 0.860 (0.751-0.903), was substantially higher than during the first year, 0.651 (0.610-0.675). Shooting by local hunters accounted for 85% of the documented deaths of adult female polar bears. Conversely, 90% of documented losses of young were independent of litter size (P = 0.36), indicating that parental investment in single cubs was not different from investment in litters of two or more. Precise estimates of the survival of independent juveniles and adult males still need to be developed.

  15. Survival rate of osseointegrated implants in atrophic maxillae grafted with calvarial bone: a retrospective study.

    PubMed

    Quiles, J C; Souza, F A; Bassi, A P F; Garcia, I R; França, M T; Carvalho, P S P

    2015-02-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical survival rate of osseointegrated implants placed in the atrophic maxilla that has been reconstructed by means of autogenous bone grafts harvested from a cranial calvarial site. Further, we sought to analyse the level of peri-implant bone after prosthetic rehabilitation and to determine subjective patient satisfaction with the treatment performed. This study conformed to the STROBE guidelines regarding retrospective studies. Twenty-five patients who had received osseointegrated implants with late loading in the reconstructed atrophic maxilla were included in the study. The survival rate and level of peri-implant bone loss were evaluated. A questionnaire related to the surgical and prosthetic procedures was completed. The observed implant survival rate was 92.35%. The mean bone loss recorded was 1.76mm in the maxilla and 1.54mm in the mandible. The results of the questionnaire indicated a high level of patient satisfaction, little surgical discomfort, and that the patients would recommend the procedure and would undergo the treatment again. From the results obtained, it is concluded that the cranial calvarial site is an excellent donor area; calvarial grafts provided stability and maintenance of bone volume over the course of up to 11 years. Copyright © 2014 International Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Survival rate of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Wakayama Prefecture, Japan, 1966 to 2005.

    PubMed

    Kihira, Tameko; Yoshida, Sohei; Okamoto, Kazusi; Kazimoto, Yoshinori; Ookawa, Masae; Hama, Kiwa; Miwa, Hideto; Kondo, Tomoyoshi

    2008-05-15

    To investigate longitudinal changes in the survival rate of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Wakayama Prefecture, Japan, we made a retrospective hospital-based study of 454 patients diagnosed with motor neuron disease (MND) at Wakayama Medical University (WMU) Hospital between 1966 and 2005. Of the 454 patients, 240 who were born and who lived in Wakayama Prefecture were diagnosed with definite or probable ALS during this period, according to the El Escorial criteria. The clinical data of the 240 patients, including sex, birth date, birthplace, address, age at onset, initial symptoms, date when respiratory support was applied (tracheostomy, noninvasive positive pressure ventilation, or mandatory artificial ventilation), and date of death were reviewed retrospectively. The age at onset of patients who developed initial symptoms before 1990 was 53.4+/-10.6 (mean+/-S.D.) and that in 1990 or thereafter was 64.8+/-10.3, respectively, showing a significant difference (p<0.0001). Clinical duration was determined from onset to either date of death or initiation of respiratory support in this study. Survival rate was compared using the Kaplan-Meier method according to age at onset, sex, initial symptoms and year of onset. Mean age at onset shifted towards older age according to a later year of onset, due to the overwhelming senility rate in Wakayama Prefecture. Older onset patients had a significantly poorer survival rate than younger onset patients when it was compared based on 10-year age groups (log rank, p<0.0001). Male patients had a poorer survival rate than female patients (p<0.0001). ALS patients with bulbar palsy onset showed shorter clinical durations than those with lower leg onset (p<0.0071, Breslow-Gehan-Wilcoxon test). Patients over 70 years old more frequently showed bulbar palsy onset compared to those younger than 69 (p=0.003). In a comparison of year of onset before and after 1990, ALS patients after 1990 had characteristics of older age

  17. Temperature dependence of metabolic rates for microbial growth, maintenance, and survival

    PubMed Central

    Price, P. Buford; Sowers, Todd

    2004-01-01

    Our work was motivated by discoveries of prokaryotic communities that survive with little nutrient in ice and permafrost, with implications for past or present microbial life in Martian permafrost and Europan ice. We compared the temperature dependence of metabolic rates of microbial communities in permafrost, ice, snow, clouds, oceans, lakes, marine and freshwater sediments, and subsurface aquifer sediments. Metabolic rates per cell fall into three groupings: (i) a rate, μg(T), for growth, measured in the laboratory at in situ temperatures with minimal disturbance of the medium; (ii) a rate, μm(T), sufficient for maintenance of functions but for a nutrient level too low for growth; and (iii) a rate, μs(T), for survival of communities imprisoned in deep glacial ice, subsurface sediment, or ocean sediment, in which they can repair macromolecular damage but are probably largely dormant. The three groups have metabolic rates consistent with a single activation energy of ≈110 kJ and that scale as μg(T):μm(T):μs(T) ≈ 106:103:1. There is no evidence of a minimum temperature for metabolism. The rate at -40°C in ice corresponds to ≈10 turnovers of cellular carbon per billion years. Microbes in ice and permafrost have metabolic rates similar to those in water, soil, and sediment at the same temperature. This finding supports the view that, far below the freezing point, liquid water inside ice and permafrost is available for metabolism. The rate μs(T) for repairing molecular damage by means of DNA-repair enzymes and protein-repair enzymes such as methyltransferase is found to be comparable to the rate of spontaneous molecular damage. PMID:15070769

  18. Changes in Survival Rate for Very-Low-Birth-Weight Infants in Korea: Comparison with Other Countries

    PubMed Central

    Shim, Jae Won; Jin, Hyun-Seung

    2015-01-01

    Recently the Korean Neonatal Network (KNN) was established in order to enhance treatment outcomes further through the registration of very-low-birth-weight infants (VLBWI) data. The present study was conducted on 2,606 VLBWI, 2,386 registered and 220 un-registered, in the KNN participating centers, with the objective of reporting on recent survival rates of VLBWI in Korea and verifying the changing trends in survival rates with data from the 1960s and beyond. The study also aimed to compare the premature infants' survival rate in Korea with those reported in neonatal networks of other countries. The recent survival rate of VLBWI increased more than twice from 35.6% in the 1960s to 84.8%, and the survival rate of the extremely low birth weight infants (ELBWI) increased by more than 10 times, indicating improvement of the survival rate in premature infants with lower birth weight and gestational age. Comparison of VLBWI between countries showed improved survival rates according to each birth weight group in Canada, Australia-New Zealand, and European countries with Japan at the head, but in terms of comparison based on gestational age, differences, except for Japan, have been reduced. Efforts to increase the survival rate of premature infants in Korea with low birth rate are inevitable, and they should be the foundation of academic and clinical development based on its network with advanced countries. PMID:26566354

  19. Mathematical Modeling of Therapy-induced Cancer Drug Resistance: Connecting Cancer Mechanisms to Population Survival Rates

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xiaoqiang; Bao, Jiguang; Shao, Yongzhao

    2016-01-01

    Drug resistance significantly limits the long-term effectiveness of targeted therapeutics for cancer patients. Recent experimental studies have demonstrated that cancer cell heterogeneity and microenvironment adaptations to targeted therapy play important roles in promoting the rapid acquisition of drug resistance and in increasing cancer metastasis. The systematic development of effective therapeutics to overcome drug resistance mechanisms poses a major challenge. In this study, we used a modeling approach to connect cellular mechanisms underlying cancer drug resistance to population-level patient survival. To predict progression-free survival in cancer patients with metastatic melanoma, we developed a set of stochastic differential equations to describe the dynamics of heterogeneous cell populations while taking into account micro-environment adaptations. Clinical data on survival and circulating tumor cell DNA (ctDNA) concentrations were used to confirm the effectiveness of our model. Moreover, our model predicted distinct patterns of dose-dependent synergy when evaluating a combination of BRAF and MEK inhibitors versus a combination of BRAF and PI3K inhibitors. These predictions were consistent with the findings in previously reported studies. The impact of the drug metabolism rate on patient survival was also discussed. The proposed model might facilitate the quantitative evaluation and optimization of combination therapeutics and cancer clinical trial design. PMID:26928089

  20. Mathematical Modeling of Therapy-induced Cancer Drug Resistance: Connecting Cancer Mechanisms to Population Survival Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Xiaoqiang; Bao, Jiguang; Shao, Yongzhao

    2016-03-01

    Drug resistance significantly limits the long-term effectiveness of targeted therapeutics for cancer patients. Recent experimental studies have demonstrated that cancer cell heterogeneity and microenvironment adaptations to targeted therapy play important roles in promoting the rapid acquisition of drug resistance and in increasing cancer metastasis. The systematic development of effective therapeutics to overcome drug resistance mechanisms poses a major challenge. In this study, we used a modeling approach to connect cellular mechanisms underlying cancer drug resistance to population-level patient survival. To predict progression-free survival in cancer patients with metastatic melanoma, we developed a set of stochastic differential equations to describe the dynamics of heterogeneous cell populations while taking into account micro-environment adaptations. Clinical data on survival and circulating tumor cell DNA (ctDNA) concentrations were used to confirm the effectiveness of our model. Moreover, our model predicted distinct patterns of dose-dependent synergy when evaluating a combination of BRAF and MEK inhibitors versus a combination of BRAF and PI3K inhibitors. These predictions were consistent with the findings in previously reported studies. The impact of the drug metabolism rate on patient survival was also discussed. The proposed model might facilitate the quantitative evaluation and optimization of combination therapeutics and cancer clinical trial design.

  1. Mathematical Modeling of Therapy-induced Cancer Drug Resistance: Connecting Cancer Mechanisms to Population Survival Rates.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xiaoqiang; Bao, Jiguang; Shao, Yongzhao

    2016-03-01

    Drug resistance significantly limits the long-term effectiveness of targeted therapeutics for cancer patients. Recent experimental studies have demonstrated that cancer cell heterogeneity and microenvironment adaptations to targeted therapy play important roles in promoting the rapid acquisition of drug resistance and in increasing cancer metastasis. The systematic development of effective therapeutics to overcome drug resistance mechanisms poses a major challenge. In this study, we used a modeling approach to connect cellular mechanisms underlying cancer drug resistance to population-level patient survival. To predict progression-free survival in cancer patients with metastatic melanoma, we developed a set of stochastic differential equations to describe the dynamics of heterogeneous cell populations while taking into account micro-environment adaptations. Clinical data on survival and circulating tumor cell DNA (ctDNA) concentrations were used to confirm the effectiveness of our model. Moreover, our model predicted distinct patterns of dose-dependent synergy when evaluating a combination of BRAF and MEK inhibitors versus a combination of BRAF and PI3K inhibitors. These predictions were consistent with the findings in previously reported studies. The impact of the drug metabolism rate on patient survival was also discussed. The proposed model might facilitate the quantitative evaluation and optimization of combination therapeutics and cancer clinical trial design.

  2. Estimating annual survival and movement rates of adults within a metapopulation of roseate terns

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Nisbet, I.C.T.; Hays, H.; Cormons, G.D.; Burger, J.; Safina, C.; Hines, J.E.; Gochfeld, M.

    1995-01-01

    Several multistratum capture-recapture models were used to test various hypotheses about possible geographic and temporal variation in survival, movement, and recapture/resighting probabilities of 2399 adult Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) color-banded from 1988 to 1992 at the sites of the four largest breeding colonies of this species in the northeastern USA. Linear-logistic ultrastructural models also were developed to investigate possible correlates of geographic variation in movement probabilities. Based on goodness-of-fit tests and comparisons of Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) values, the fully parameterized model (Model A) with time- and location-specific survival, movement, and capture probabilities, was selected as the most appropriate model for this metapopulation structure. With almost all movement accounted for, on average gt 90% of the surviving adults from each colony site returned to the same site the following year. Variations in movement probabilities were more closely associated with the identity of the destination colony site than with either the identity of the colony site of origin or the distance between colony sites. The average annual survival estimates (0.740.84) of terns from all four sites indicate a high rate of annual mortality relative to that of other species of marine birds.

  3. Improved survival rate by temperature control at compression sites in rat model of crush syndrome.

    PubMed

    Nakayama, Takefumi; Fujita, Masanori; Ishihara, Masayuki; Ishihara, Miya; Ogata, Sho; Yamamoto, Yoritsuna; Shimizu, Masafumi; Maehara, Tadaaki; Kanatani, Yasuhiro; Tachibana, Shoichi

    2014-05-01

    Crush syndrome (CS) has been reported in disasters, terrorist incidents, and accidents, and the clinical and pathologic picture has gradually been clarified. Few lethal and reproducible animal models of CS with use of a quantitative load are available. A new model is needed to investigate pathologic and therapeutic aspects of this injury. Using a device built from commercially available components, both hindlimbs of anesthetized rats were respectively compressed for 6 h using 3.6-kg blocks. The effects of trunk warming alone without compressed hindlimbs (Group A), non-warming at room temperature (Group B), whole-body warming including compressed hindlimbs (Group C), or warming of compressed hindlimbs alone (Group D) during compression were examined. Survival rates were compared and hematological and histologic analyses were performed at specific time points after compression release. Limb or whole-body warming significantly worsened the survival of rats. We found a much lower survival rate of 0%-10% in animals, in which the hindlimbs were warmed during compression (Groups C and D) at 12 h after compression release, compared with 90%-100% in animals without warming of the hindlimbs (Groups A and B). Groups C and D showed significantly enhanced hyperkalemia at ≥4 h after compression release and all blood samples from dead cases showed hyperkalemia (>10 mEq/L). We developed a new lethal and reproducible rat CS model with a quantitative load. This study found that warming of compressed limbs worsened the survival rate and significantly enhanced hyperkalemia, apparently leading to cardiac arrest. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. SU-E-T-352: Why Is the Survival Rate Low in Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma?

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Z; Feng, Y; Rasmussen, K; Rice, J; Stephenson, S; Ferreira, Maria C; Liu, T; Yuh, K; Wang, R; Grecula, J; Lo, S; Mayr, N; Yuh, W

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: Tumors are composed of a large number of clonogens that have the capability of indefinite reproduction. Even when there is complete clinical or radiographic regression of the gross tumor mass after treatment, tumor recurrence can occur if the clonogens are not completely eradicated by radiotherapy. This study was to investigate the colonogen number and its association with the tumor control probability (TCP) in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCCA). Methods: A literature search was conducted to collect clinical information of patients with OSCCA, including the prescription dose, tumor volume and survival rate. The linear-quadratic (LQ) model was incorporated into TCP model for clinical data analysis. The total dose ranged from 60 to 70 Gy and tumor volume ranged from 10 to 50 cc. The TCP was calculated for each group according to tumor size and dose. The least χ{sup 2} method was used to fit the TCP calculation to clinical data while other LQ model parameters (α, β) were adopted from the literature, due to the limited patient data. Results: A total of 190 patients with T2–T4 OSCCA were included. The association with HPV was not available for all the patients. The 3-year survival rate was about 82% for T2 squamous cell carcinoma and 40% for advanced tumors. Fitting the TCP model to the survival data, the average clonogen number was 1.56×10{sup 12}. For the prescription dose of 70 Gy, the calculated TCP ranged from 40% to 90% when the tumor volume varied from 10 to 50 cc. Conclusion: Our data suggests variation between the clonogen number and TCP in OSCCA. Tumors with larger colonogen number tend to have lower TCP and therefore dose escalation above 70 Gy may be indicated in order to improve the TCP and survival rate. Our result will require future confirmation with a large number of patients.

  5. Increased survival rate by local release of diclofenac in a murine model of recurrent oral carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Will, Olga Maria; Purcz, Nicolai; Chalaris, Athena; Heneweer, Carola; Boretius, Susann; Purcz, Larissa; Nikkola, Lila; Ashammakhi, Nureddin; Kalthoff, Holger; Glüer, Claus-Christian; Wiltfang, Jörg; Açil, Yahya; Tiwari, Sanjay

    Despite aggressive treatment with radiation and combination chemotherapy following tumor resection, the 5-year survival rate for patients with head and neck cancer is at best only 50%. In this study, we examined the therapeutic potential of localized release of diclofenac from electrospun nanofibers generated from poly(D,L-lactide-co-glycolide) polymer. Diclofenac was chosen since anti-inflammatory agents that inhibit cyclooxygenase have shown great potential in their ability to directly inhibit tumor growth as well as suppress inflammation-mediated tumor growth. A mouse resection model of oral carcinoma was developed by establishing tumor growth in the oral cavity by ultrasound-guided injection of 1 million SCC-9 cells in the floor of the mouth. Following resection, mice were allocated into four groups with the following treatment: 1) no treatment, 2) implanted scaffolds without diclofenac, 3) implanted scaffolds loaded with diclofenac, and 4) diclofenac given orally. Small animal ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging were utilized for longitudinal determination of tumor recurrence. At the end of 7 weeks following tumor resection, 33% of mice with diclofenac-loaded scaffolds had a recurrent tumor, in comparison to 90%-100% of the mice in the other three groups. At this time point, mice with diclofenac-releasing scaffolds showed 89% survival rate, while the other groups showed survival rates of 10%-25%. Immunohistochemical staining of recurrent tumors revealed a near 10-fold decrease in the proliferation marker Ki-67 in the tumors derived from mice with diclofenac-releasing scaffolds. In summary, the local application of diclofenac in an orthotopic mouse tumor resection model of oral cancer reduced tumor recurrence with significant improvement in survival over a 7-week study period following tumor resection. Local drug release of anti-inflammatory agents should be investigated as a therapeutic option in the prevention of tumor recurrence in oral squamous

  6. Increased survival rate by local release of diclofenac in a murine model of recurrent oral carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Will, Olga Maria; Purcz, Nicolai; Chalaris, Athena; Heneweer, Carola; Boretius, Susann; Purcz, Larissa; Nikkola, Lila; Ashammakhi, Nureddin; Kalthoff, Holger; Glüer, Claus-Christian; Wiltfang, Jörg; Açil, Yahya; Tiwari, Sanjay

    2016-01-01

    Despite aggressive treatment with radiation and combination chemotherapy following tumor resection, the 5-year survival rate for patients with head and neck cancer is at best only 50%. In this study, we examined the therapeutic potential of localized release of diclofenac from electrospun nanofibers generated from poly(D,L-lactide-co-glycolide) polymer. Diclofenac was chosen since anti-inflammatory agents that inhibit cyclooxygenase have shown great potential in their ability to directly inhibit tumor growth as well as suppress inflammation-mediated tumor growth. A mouse resection model of oral carcinoma was developed by establishing tumor growth in the oral cavity by ultrasound-guided injection of 1 million SCC-9 cells in the floor of the mouth. Following resection, mice were allocated into four groups with the following treatment: 1) no treatment, 2) implanted scaffolds without diclofenac, 3) implanted scaffolds loaded with diclofenac, and 4) diclofenac given orally. Small animal ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging were utilized for longitudinal determination of tumor recurrence. At the end of 7 weeks following tumor resection, 33% of mice with diclofenac-loaded scaffolds had a recurrent tumor, in comparison to 90%–100% of the mice in the other three groups. At this time point, mice with diclofenac-releasing scaffolds showed 89% survival rate, while the other groups showed survival rates of 10%–25%. Immunohistochemical staining of recurrent tumors revealed a near 10-fold decrease in the proliferation marker Ki-67 in the tumors derived from mice with diclofenac-releasing scaffolds. In summary, the local application of diclofenac in an orthotopic mouse tumor resection model of oral cancer reduced tumor recurrence with significant improvement in survival over a 7-week study period following tumor resection. Local drug release of anti-inflammatory agents should be investigated as a therapeutic option in the prevention of tumor recurrence in oral squamous

  7. The influence of disturbance events on survival and dispersal rates of Florida box turtles.

    PubMed

    Dodd, C Kenneth; Ozgul, Arpat; Oli, Madan K

    2006-10-01

    Disturbances have the potential to cause long-term effects to ecosystem structure and function, and they may affect individual species in different ways. Long-lived vertebrates such as turtles may be at risk from such events, inasmuch as their life histories preclude rapid recovery should extensive mortality occur. We applied capture-mark-recapture models to assess disturbance effects on a population of Florida box turtles (Terrapene carolina bauri) on Egmont Key, Florida, USA. Near the midpoint of the study, a series of physical disturbances affected the island, from salt water overwash associated with several tropical storms to extensive removal of nonindigenous vegetation. These disturbances allowed us to examine demographic responses of the turtle population and to determine if they affected dispersal throughout the island. Adult survival rates did not vary significantly either between sexes or among years of the study. Survival rates did not vary significantly between juvenile and adult turtles, or among years of the study. Furthermore, neither adult nor juvenile survival rates differed significantly between pre- and post-disturbance. However, dispersal rates varied significantly among the four major study sites, and dispersal rates were higher during the pre-disturbance sampling periods compared to post-disturbance. Our results suggest few long-term effects on the demography of the turtle population. Florida box turtles responded to tropical storms and vegetation control by moving to favorable habitats minimally affected by the disturbances and remaining there. As long as turtles and perhaps other long-lived vertebrates can disperse to non-disturbed habitat, and high levels of mortality do not occur in a population, a long life span may allow them to wait out the impact of disturbance with potentially little effect on long-term population processes.

  8. The influence of disturbance events on survival and dispersal rates of Florida box turtles

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dodd, C.K.; Ozgul, A.; Oli, M.K.

    2006-01-01

    Disturbances have the potential to cause long-term effects to ecosystem structure and function, and they may affect individual species in different ways. Long-lived vertebrates such as turtles may be at risk from such events, inasmuch as their life histories preclude rapid recovery should extensive mortality occur. We applied capture–mark–recapture models to assess disturbance effects on a population of Florida box turtles (Terrapene carolina bauri) on Egmont Key, Florida, USA. Near the midpoint of the study, a series of physical disturbances affected the island, from salt water overwash associated with several tropical storms to extensive removal of nonindigenous vegetation. These disturbances allowed us to examine demographic responses of the turtle population and to determine if they affected dispersal throughout the island. Adult survival rates did not vary significantly either between sexes or among years of the study. Survival rates did not vary significantly between juvenile and adult turtles, or among years of the study. Furthermore, neither adult nor juvenile survival rates differed significantly between pre- and post-disturbance. However, dispersal rates varied significantly among the four major study sites, and dispersal rates were higher during the pre-disturbance sampling periods compared to post-disturbance. Our results suggest few long-term effects on the demography of the turtle population. Florida box turtles responded to tropical storms and vegetation control by moving to favorable habitats minimally affected by the disturbances and remaining there. As long as turtles and perhaps other long-lived vertebrates can disperse to non-disturbed habitat, and high levels of mortality do not occur in a population, a long life span may allow them to wait out the impact of disturbance with potentially little effect on long-term population processes.

  9. Survival, Recruitment, and Population Growth Rate of an Important Mesopredator: The Northern Raccoon

    PubMed Central

    Troyer, Elizabeth M.; Cameron Devitt, Susan E.; Sunquist, Melvin E.; Goswami, Varun R.; Oli, Madan K.

    2014-01-01

    Populations of mesopredators (mid-sized mammalian carnivores) are expanding in size and range amid declining apex predator populations and ever-growing human presence, leading to significant ecological impacts. Despite their obvious importance, population dynamics have scarcely been studied for most mesopredator species. Information on basic population parameters and processes under a range of conditions is necessary for managing these species. Here we investigate survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of a widely distributed and abundant mesopredator, the northern raccoon (Procyon lotor), using Pradel’s temporal symmetry models and >6 years of monthly capture-mark-recapture data collected in a protected area. Monthly apparent survival probability was higher for females (0.949, 95% CI = 0.936–0.960) than for males (0.908, 95% CI = 0.893–0.920), while monthly recruitment rate was higher for males (0.091, 95% CI = 0.078–0.106) than for females (0.054, 95% CI = 0.042–0.067). Finally, monthly realized population growth rate was 1.000 (95% CI = 0.996–1.004), indicating that our study population has reached a stable equilibrium in this relatively undisturbed habitat. There was little evidence for substantial temporal variation in population growth rate or its components. Our study is one of the first to quantify survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate of raccoons using long-term data and rigorous statistical models. PMID:24901349

  10. It isn't like this on TV: Revisiting CPR survival rates depicted on popular TV shows.

    PubMed

    Portanova, Jaclyn; Irvine, Krystle; Yi, Jae Yoon; Enguidanos, Susan

    2015-11-01

    Public perceptions of cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) can be influenced by the media. Nearly two decades ago, a study found that the rates of survival following CPR were far higher in popular TV shows than actual rates. In recent years, major strides toward enhanced education and communication around life sustaining interventions have been made. This study aimed to reassess the accuracy of CPR portrayed by popular medical TV shows. Additionally, we sought to determine whether these shows depicted discussions of care preferences and referenced advance directives. Three trained research assistants independently coded two leading medical dramas airing between 2010 and 2011, Grey's Anatomy and House. Patient characteristics, CPR survival rates, and goals of care discussions were recorded. CPR was depicted 46 times in the 91 episodes, with a survival rate of 69.6%. Among those immediately surviving following CPR, the majority (71.9%) survived to hospital discharge and 15.6% died before discharge. Advance directive discussions only occurred for two patients, and preferences regarding code status (8.7%), intubation (6.5%) and feeding (4.3%) rarely occurred. Both popular TV shows portrayed CPR as more effective than actual rates. Overall, the shows portrayed an immediate survival rate nearly twice that of actual survival rates. Inaccurate TV portrayal of CPR survival rates may misinform viewers and influence care decisions made during serious illness and at end of life. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Nonparametric confidence intervals for the ratio of marginal hazard rates of paired survival times.

    PubMed

    Jin, Huan; Zhao, Naiqing; Tu, Dongsheng

    2012-03-01

    Paired survival times with potential censoring are often observed from two treatment groups in clinical trials and other types of clinical studies. The ratio of marginal hazard rates may be used to quantify the treatment effect in these studies. In this paper, a recently proposed nonparametric kernel method is used to estimate the marginal hazard rate, and the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER) is used for the construction of the confidence intervals of a time-dependent hazard ratio based on the confidence limits of a single marginal hazard rate. Two methods are proposed: one uses the delta method and another adopts the transformation method to construct confidence limits for the marginal hazard rate. Simulations are performed to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods. Real data from two clinical trials are analyzed using the proposed methods. © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  12. Recent research (N = 9,305) underscores the importance of using age-stratified actuarial tables in sex offender risk assessments.

    PubMed

    Wollert, Richard; Cramer, Elliot; Waggoner, Jacqueline; Skelton, Alex; Vess, James

    2010-12-01

    A useful understanding of the relationship between age, actuarial scores, and sexual recidivism can be obtained by comparing the entries in equivalent cells from "age-stratified" actuarial tables. This article reports the compilation of the first multisample age-stratified table of sexual recidivism rates, referred to as the "multisample age-stratified table of sexual recidivism rates (MATS-1)," from recent research on Static-99 and another actuarial known as the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale. The MATS-1 validates the "age invariance effect" that the risk of sexual recidivism declines with advancing age and shows that age-restricted tables underestimate risk for younger offenders and overestimate risk for older offenders. Based on data from more than 9,000 sex offenders, our conclusion is that evaluators should report recidivism estimates from age-stratified tables when they are assessing sexual recidivism risk, particularly when evaluating the aging sex offender.

  13. Survival Implications Associated with Variation in Mastectomy Rates for Early-Staged Breast Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Brooks, John M.; Chrischilles, Elizabeth A.; Landrum, Mary Beth; Wright, Kara B.; Fang, Gang; Winer, Eric P.; Keating, Nancy L.

    2012-01-01

    Despite a 20-year-old guideline from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Consensus Development Conference recommending breast conserving surgery with radiation (BCSR) over mastectomy for woman with early-stage breast cancer (ESBC) because it preserves the breast, recent evidence shows mastectomy rates increasing and higher-staged ESBC patients are more likely to receive mastectomy. These observations suggest that some patients and their providers believe that mastectomy has advantages over BCSR and these advantages increase with stage. These beliefs may persist because the randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that served as the basis for the NIH guideline were populated mainly with lower-staged patients. Our objective is to assess the survival implications associated with mastectomy choice by patient alignment with the RCT populations. We used instrumental variable methods to estimate the relationship between surgery choice and survival for ESBC patients based on variation in local area surgery styles. We find results consistent with the RCTs for patients closely aligned to the RCT populations. However, for patients unlike those in the RCTs, our results suggest that higher mastectomy rates are associated with reduced survival. We are careful to interpret our estimates in terms of limitations of our estimation approach. PMID:22928097

  14. Food availability affects adult survival trajectories depending on early developmental conditions.

    PubMed

    Briga, Michael; Koetsier, Egbert; Boonekamp, Jelle J; Jimeno, Blanca; Verhulst, Simon

    2017-01-11

    Food availability modulates survival in interaction with (for example) competition, disease and predators, but to what extent food availability in natural populations affects survival independent of these factors is not well known. We tested the effect of food availability on lifespan and actuarial senescence in a large population of captive zebra finches by increasing the effort required to obtain food, reflecting natural contrasts in food availability. Food availability may not affect all individuals equally and we therefore created heterogeneity in phenotypic quality by raising birds with different numbers of siblings. Low food availability had no effect on lifespan for individuals from benign developmental conditions (raised in small broods), but shortened lifespan for individuals from harsh developmental conditions. The lifespan difference arose through higher baseline mortality rate of individuals from harsh developmental conditions, despite a decrease in the rate of actuarial senescence. We found no evidence for sex-specific environmental sensitivity, but females lived shorter than males due to increased actuarial senescence. Thus, low food availability by itself shortens lifespan, but only in individuals from harsh developmental conditions. Our food availability manipulation resembles dietary restriction as applied to invertebrates, where it extends lifespan in model organisms and we discuss possible reasons for the contrasting results. © 2017 The Author(s).

  15. High-dose nimotuzumab improves the survival rate of esophageal cancer patients who underwent radiotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Chunyu; Fu, Xiaolong; Cai, Xuwei; Wu, Xianghua; Hu, Xichun; Fan, Min; Xiang, Jiaqing; Zhang, Yawei; Chen, Haiquan; Jiang, Guoliang; Zhao, Kuaile

    2016-01-01

    Nimotuzumab (h-R3) is a humanized monoclonal antibody that is safe to use against epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR). However, the available information is insufficient about the dose effect of monoclonal antibody against epidermal growth factor receptor for the treatment of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). We retrospectively recruited 66 patients with ESCC who were treated with h-R3 and chemoradiotherapy/radiotherapy. Patients who received more than 1,200 mg of h-R3 were classified as the high-dose group, and the remaining patients were classified as the low-dose group. The endpoint for efficacy was the overall survival. Differences in survival between the groups were analyzed using the log-rank test. The Cox proportional hazards model was used in multivariate analysis to identify independent prognostic factors. The low-dose and high-dose groups comprised 55 and eleven patients, respectively. The median follow-up time in the final analysis was 46 months. The high-dose group showed no increased incidence of toxicities compared to the low-dose group. The 1-, 2-, and 5-year overall survival rates in the low-dose and high-dose groups were 66.9%, 50.0%, 31.5% and 90.0%, 80.0%, 66.7%, respectively (P=0.04). Multivariate analyses showed that the high-dose group had better survival than the low-dose group (hazard ratio 0.28, 95% confidence interval 0.09–0.94, P=0.039). Taken together, high-dose h-R3 showed limited toxicity and improved survival in patients with ESCC. PMID:26766917

  16. Effects of Saccharomyces cerevisiae on survival rate and growth performance of Convict Cichlid (Amatitlania nigrofasciata)

    PubMed Central

    Mohammadi, F; Mousavi, S. M.; Ahmadmoradi, E.; Zakeri, M.; Jahedi, A.

    2015-01-01

    Using probiotics can control pathogens by a variety of mechanisms. Probiotics can promote growth performance and have, therefore, become increasingly important in the aquaculture industry. Convict Cichlid belongs to the family of Cichlidae and is known for its rapid development in laboratory conditions and is suitable for behavioral examinations. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of Saccharomyces cerevisiae on growth performance, survival rate and body composition of Convict Cichlids (Amatitlania nigrofasciata). One hundred sixty eight Convict Cichlids (mean weight: 2.1 ± 0.12 g and mean length: 2.2 ± 0.05 cm) were fed by commercial diets with different concentrations of S. cerevisiae (0, 0.5%, 1%, 2%). At the end of the experiment, survival rate and growth indices were measured. Based on the results, growth performance significantly increased with probiotic, S. cerevisiae, specially, at the 2% probiotic level of concentration. In the present study, the best FCR (feed conversion rate), SGR (specific growth rate), CF (condition factor) and BWG (body weight gain) values were observed in a 2% concentration of S. cerevisiae. The results suggest that this yeast could improve feed utilization in this fish species. PMID:27175152

  17. Effects of Saccharomyces cerevisiae on survival rate and growth performance of Convict Cichlid (Amatitlania nigrofasciata).

    PubMed

    Mohammadi, F; Mousavi, S M; Ahmadmoradi, E; Zakeri, M; Jahedi, A

    2015-01-01

    Using probiotics can control pathogens by a variety of mechanisms. Probiotics can promote growth performance and have, therefore, become increasingly important in the aquaculture industry. Convict Cichlid belongs to the family of Cichlidae and is known for its rapid development in laboratory conditions and is suitable for behavioral examinations. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of Saccharomyces cerevisiae on growth performance, survival rate and body composition of Convict Cichlids (Amatitlania nigrofasciata). One hundred sixty eight Convict Cichlids (mean weight: 2.1 ± 0.12 g and mean length: 2.2 ± 0.05 cm) were fed by commercial diets with different concentrations of S. cerevisiae (0, 0.5%, 1%, 2%). At the end of the experiment, survival rate and growth indices were measured. Based on the results, growth performance significantly increased with probiotic, S. cerevisiae, specially, at the 2% probiotic level of concentration. In the present study, the best FCR (feed conversion rate), SGR (specific growth rate), CF (condition factor) and BWG (body weight gain) values were observed in a 2% concentration of S. cerevisiae. The results suggest that this yeast could improve feed utilization in this fish species.

  18. Hypoxia-activated prodrug TH-302 decreased survival rate of canine lymphoma cells under hypoxic condition.

    PubMed

    Yamazaki, Hiroki; Lai, Yu-Chang; Tateno, Morihiro; Setoguchi, Asuka; Goto-Koshino, Yuko; Endo, Yasuyuki; Nakaichi, Munekazu; Tsujimoto, Hajime; Miura, Naoki

    2017-01-01

    We tested the hypotheses that hypoxic stimulation enhances growth potentials of canine lymphoma cells by activating hypoxia-inducible factor 1α (HIF-1α), and that the hypoxia-activated prodrug (TH-302) inhibits growth potentials in the cells. We investigated how hypoxic culture affects the growth rate, chemoresistance, and invasiveness of canine lymphoma cells and doxorubicin (DOX)-resistant lymphoma cells, and influences of TH-302 on survival rate of the cells under hypoxic conditions. Our results demonstrated that hypoxic culture upregulated the expression of HIF-1α and its target genes, including ATP-binding cassette transporter B1 (ABCB1), ATP-binding cassette transporter G2 (ABCG2), platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), and survivin, and enhanced the growth rate, DOX resistance, and invasiveness of the cells. Additionally, TH-302 decreased the survival rate of the cells under hypoxic condition. Our studies suggest that hypoxic stimulation may advance the tumorigenicity of canine lymphoma cells, favoring malignant transformation. Therefore, the data presented may contribute to the development of TH-302-based hypoxia-targeting therapies for canine lymphoma.

  19. Analysis of recurrence and survival rates in grade 3 endometrioid endometrial carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jieyu; Jia, Nan; Li, Qing; Wang, Chao; Tao, Xiang; Hua, Keqin; Feng, Weiwei

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to determine risk factors associated with recurrence and survival in patients with grade 3 endometrioid endometrial carcinoma (G3EEC). A retrospective analysis of 117 patients with G3EEC, who were admitted to the Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital of Fudan University between January 2000 and December 2011, was performed. The χ2 test or Fisher's exact test were used for the comparison of categorical variables. Kaplan-Meier method was used for estimating recurrence-free survival (RFS), disease-specific survival (DSS) and overall survival (OS) rates. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model were used to assess the prognostic significance of various patient characteristics. In 117 patients, 16 patients (13.7%) had tumor recurrence, of which 6 (37.5%) developed local-regional recurrence and 10 (62.5%) developed distant recurrence. Out of the 16 patients with tumor recurrence, 14 (87.5%) had a recurrence within 3 years of surgery. Statistically significant characteristics affecting RFS, DSS and OS rates were outer half myometrial invasion (MI ≥50%), advanced International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage, positive lymph node metastasis (PLNM), lymph vascular space invasion, adnexal involvement and characterization as a high-risk group, according to the Gynecologic Oncology Group 99 stratification algorithm. RFS was associated with the depth of cervical mucosa (stromal) involvement. Furthermore, in the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, significant independent adverse factors for RFS and DSS included MI ≥50% and adnexal involvement. For OS, there were no statistically significant prognostic factors. In conclusion, MI ≥50% and adnexal involvement are independent prognostic factors for RFS and DSS in G3EEC patients. PMID:27698871

  20. Metadoxine improves the three- and six-month survival rates in patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis

    PubMed Central

    Higuera-de la Tijera, Fátima; Servín-Caamaño, Alfredo I; Serralde-Zúñiga, Aurora E; Cruz-Herrera, Javier; Pérez-Torres, Eduardo; Abdo-Francis, Juan M; Salas-Gordillo, Francisco; Pérez-Hernández, José L

    2015-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate the impact of metadoxine (MTD) on the 3- and 6-mo survival of patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis (AH). METHODS: This study was an open-label clinical trial, performed at the “Hospital General de México, Dr. Eduardo Liceaga”. We randomized 135 patients who met the criteria for severe AH into the following groups: 35 patients received prednisone (PDN) 40 mg/d, 35 patients received PDN+MTD 500 mg three times daily, 33 patients received pentoxifylline (PTX) 400 mg three times daily, and 32 patients received PTX+MTD 500 mg three times daily. The duration of the treatment for all of the groups was 30 d. RESULTS: In the groups treated with the MTD, the survival rate was higher at 3 mo (PTX+MTD 59.4% vs PTX 33.3%, P = 0.04; PDN+MTD 68.6% vs PDN 20%, P = 0.0001) and at 6 mo (PTX+MTD 50% vs PTX 18.2%, P = 0.01; PDN+MTD 48.6% vs PDN 20%, P = 0.003) than in the groups not treated with MTD. A relapse in alcohol intake was the primary independent factor predicting mortality at 6 mo. The patients receiving MTD maintained greater abstinence than those who did not receive it (74.5% vs 59.4%, P = 0.02). CONCLUSION: MTD improves the 3- and 6-mo survival rates in patients with severe AH. Alcohol abstinence is a key factor for survival in these patients. The patients who received the combination therapy with MTD were more likely to maintain abstinence than those who received monotherapy with either PDN or PTX. PMID:25945012

  1. Metadoxine improves the three- and six-month survival rates in patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis.

    PubMed

    Higuera-de la Tijera, Fátima; Servín-Caamaño, Alfredo I; Serralde-Zúñiga, Aurora E; Cruz-Herrera, Javier; Pérez-Torres, Eduardo; Abdo-Francis, Juan M; Salas-Gordillo, Francisco; Pérez-Hernández, José L

    2015-04-28

    To evaluate the impact of metadoxine (MTD) on the 3- and 6-mo survival of patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis (AH). This study was an open-label clinical trial, performed at the "Hospital General de México, Dr. Eduardo Liceaga". We randomized 135 patients who met the criteria for severe AH into the following groups: 35 patients received prednisone (PDN) 40 mg/d, 35 patients received PDN+MTD 500 mg three times daily, 33 patients received pentoxifylline (PTX) 400 mg three times daily, and 32 patients received PTX+MTD 500 mg three times daily. The duration of the treatment for all of the groups was 30 d. In the groups treated with the MTD, the survival rate was higher at 3 mo (PTX+MTD 59.4% vs PTX 33.3%, P = 0.04; PDN+MTD 68.6% vs PDN 20%, P = 0.0001) and at 6 mo (PTX+MTD 50% vs PTX 18.2%, P = 0.01; PDN+MTD 48.6% vs PDN 20%, P = 0.003) than in the groups not treated with MTD. A relapse in alcohol intake was the primary independent factor predicting mortality at 6 mo. The patients receiving MTD maintained greater abstinence than those who did not receive it (74.5% vs 59.4%, P = 0.02). MTD improves the 3- and 6-mo survival rates in patients with severe AH. Alcohol abstinence is a key factor for survival in these patients. The patients who received the combination therapy with MTD were more likely to maintain abstinence than those who received monotherapy with either PDN or PTX.

  2. Study of Survival Rate After Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) in Hospitals of Kermanshah in 2013

    PubMed Central

    Goodarzi, Afshin; Jalali, Amir; Almasi, Afshin; Naderipour, Arsalan; Kalhori, Reza Pourmirza; Khodadadi, Amineh

    2015-01-01

    Background: After CPR, the follow-up of survival rate and caused complications are the most important practices of the medical group. This study was performed aimed at determining the follow-up results after CPR in patients of university hospitals in Kermanshah in 2014. Methods: In this prospective study, 320 samples were examined. A purposive sampling method was used, and data was collected using a researcher-made information form with content and face validity and reliability of r= 0.79. Data was analyzed with STATA9 software and statistical tests, including calculation of the success rate, relative risk (RR), chi-square and Fisher at significance level of P < 0.05. Results: The initial success rate of cardiopulmonary resuscitation was equal to 15.3%, while the ultimate success rate (discharged alive from the hospital) was as 10.6%. The six-month success rate after resuscitation was 8.78% than those who were discharged alive. There were no significant statistical differences between different age groups regarding the initial success rate of resuscitation (P = 0.14), and the initial resuscitation success rate was higher in patients in morning shift (P = 0.02). Conclusion: By the results of study, it is recommended to increase the medical - nursing knowledge and techniques for personnel in the evening and night shifts. Also, an appropriate dissemination of health care staff in working shifts should be done to increase the success rate of CPR procedure. PMID:25560341

  3. Study of survival rate after cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) in hospitals of Kermanshah in 2013.

    PubMed

    Goodarzi, Afshin; Jalali, Amir; Almasi, Afshin; Naderipour, Arsalan; Kalhorii, Reza Pourmirza; Khodadadi, Amineh

    2014-07-29

    After CPR, the follow-up of survival rate and caused complications are the most important practices of the medical group. This study was performed aimed at determining the follow-up results after CPR in patients of university hospitals in Kermanshah in 2014. In this prospective study, 320 samples were examined. A purposive sampling method was used, and data was collected using a researcher-made information form with content and face validity and reliability of r= 0.79. Data was analyzed with STATA9 software and statistical tests, including calculation of the success rate, relative risk (RR), chi-square and Fisher at significance level of P < 0.05. The initial success rate of cardiopulmonary resuscitation was equal to 15.3%, while the ultimate success rate (discharged alive from the hospital) was as 10.6%. The six-month success rate after resuscitation was 8.78% than those who were discharged alive. There were no significant statistical differences between different age groups regarding the initial success rate of resuscitation (P = 0.14), and the initial resuscitation success rate was higher in patients in morning shift (P = 0.02). By the results of study, it is recommended to increase the medical - nursing knowledge and techniques for personnel in the evening and night shifts. Also, an appropriate dissemination of health care staff in working shifts should be done to increase the success rate of CPR procedure.

  4. Total Ankle Replacement Survival Rates Based on Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis of National Joint Registry Data.

    PubMed

    Bartel, Annette F P; Roukis, Thomas S

    2015-10-01

    National joint registry data provides unique information about primary total ankle replacement (TAR) survival. We sought to recreate survival curves among published national joint registry data sets using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Overall, 5152 primary and 591 TAR revisions were included over a 2- to 13-year period with prosthesis survival for all national joint registries of 0.94 at 2-years, 0.87 at 5-years and 0.81 at 10-years. National joint registry datasets should strive for completion of data presentation including revision definitions, modes and time of failure, and patients lost to follow-up or death for complete accuracy of the Kaplan-Meier estimator.

  5. Survival Rates in Trauma Patients Following Health Care Reform in Massachusetts.

    PubMed

    Osler, Turner; Glance, Laurent G; Li, Wenjun; Buzas, Jeffery S; Hosmer, David W

    2015-07-01

    Massachusetts introduced health care reform (HCR) in 2006, expecting to expand health insurance coverage and improve outcomes. Because traumatic injury is a common acute condition with important health, disability, and economic consequences, examination of the effect of HCR on patients hospitalized following injury may help inform the national HCR debate. To examine the effect of Massachusetts HCR on survival rates of injured patients. Retrospective cohort study of 1,520,599 patients hospitalized following traumatic injury in Massachusetts or New York during the 10 years (2002-2011) surrounding Massachusetts HCR using data from the State Inpatient Databases. We assessed the effect of HCR on mortality rates using a difference-in-differences approach to control for temporal trends in mortality. Health care reform in Massachusetts in 2006. Survival until hospital discharge. During the 10-year study period, the rates of uninsured trauma patients in Massachusetts decreased steadily from 14.9% in 2002 to 5.0.% in 2011. In New York, the rates of uninsured trauma patients fell from 14.9% in 2002 to 10.5% in 2011. The risk-adjusted difference-in-difference assessment revealed a transient increase of 604 excess deaths (95% CI, 419-790) in Massachusetts in the 3 years following implementation of HCR. Health care reform did not affect health insurance coverage for patients hospitalized following injury but was associated with a transient increase in adjusted mortality rates. Reducing mortality rates for acutely injured patients may require more comprehensive interventions than simply promoting health insurance coverage through legislation.

  6. Haptoglobin expression correlates with tumor differentiation and five-year overall survival rate in hepatocellular carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Teng, Tsung-Han; Lin, Ping-Yi; Tu, Siang-Jyun; Chou, Chih-Hung; Huang, Ya-Rong; Huang, Wei-Chih; Weng, Shun-Long; Huang, Hsien-Da; Chen, Yao-Li

    2017-01-01

    Elevated serum haptoglobin (Hp) is identified as a prognostic marker in multiple types of solid tumors, which is correlated with poor prognosis. HCC is one of the major causes of cancer deaths in worldwide, which remains poor prognosis and is clinically urgent for discovering early diagnostic markers. However, except for serum Hp, the correlation of tumor Hp expression with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) progression is still unclear. In this study, we evaluated and identified the tissue Hp expression as a prognostic marker to predict the survival rate of HCC patients. To evaluate the prognostic value of Hp expression for HCC, two cohorts were enrolled in our study, including total 130 matched pair tissue sections (both adjacent non-tumorous and tumor tissue derived from same patient) of HCC patients from Changhua Christian Hospital (CCH) and total 316 RNA-seq data with clinical information of HCC patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. In contrast to other types of cancers, HCC tumor tissues have lower Hp protein expression in CCH cohort and have lower Hp mRNA expression in TCGA cohort as compared with adjacent non-tumorous tissues (p < 0.001). Moreover, lower Hp expression is significantly correlated with different stages of HCC cancer differentiation in CCH cohort (one-way ANOVA, p < 0.001). Most importantly, lower Hp expression is highly correlated with poor five-year overall survival rate in TCGA cohort (p < 0.01). Based on our data, we conclude that tissue Hp expression positively correlates with better HCC tumor differentiation and increased five-year overall survival rate of HCC patients. The results indicated that tissue Hp is potentially a prognostic marker for HCC patients. Our findings may further provide a new insight of effective treatments along with biopsy diagnosis of HCC patients. PMID:28158312

  7. 3-year survival rates of retained composite resin and ART sealants using two assessment criteria.

    PubMed

    Hilgert, Leandro Augusto; Leal, Soraya Coelho; Freire, Gabriela Mesquita Lopes; Mulder, Jan; Frencken, Jo E

    2017-05-04

    The aim was to test the null-hypothesis that there is no difference in the cumulative survival rate of retained composite resin (CR) sealants and a high-viscosity glass-ionomer Atraumatic Restorative Treatment (ART) sealant in first permanent molars calculated according to the traditional and the modified retention assessment criteria over a period of 3 years. This cluster-randomized controlled clinical trial consisted of 123 schoolchildren, 6-7-years-old. At baseline, high-caries risk pits and fissures of fully erupted first permanent molars were treated with CR and ART sealants. Evaluations were performed after 0.5, 1, 2 and 3 years. Retention was scored for free-smooth surface and for each of three sections into which the occlusal surface had been divided. The modified criterion differed from the traditional in that it determined an occlusal sealant to be a failure when at least one section contained no visible sealant material. Data were analysed according to the PHREG model with frailty correction, Wald-test, ANOVA and t-test, using the Jackknife procedure. The cumulative survival rates for retained CR and ART sealants in free-smooth and occlusal surfaces for both criteria were not statistically significantly different over the 3 years. A higher percentage of retained CR sealants on occlusal surfaces was observed at longer evaluations. Cumulative survival rates were statistically significantly lower for the modified criterion in comparison to the traditional. The modified retention assessment criterion should be used in future sealant-retention studies.

  8. Local annual survival and seasonal residency rates of Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) in Puerto Rico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rice, S.M.; Collazo, J.A.; Alldredge, M.W.; Harrington, B.A.; Lewis, A.R.

    2007-01-01

    We report seasonal residency and local annual survival rates of migratory Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) at the Cabo Rojo salt flats, Puerto Rico. Residency rate (daily probability of remaining on the flats) was 0.991 ± 0.001 (x̄ ± SE), yielding a mean length of stay of 110 days. This finding supports the inclusion of the Caribbean as part of the species' winter range. Average estimated percentage of fat was low but increased throughout the season, which suggests that birds replenish some spent fat reserves and strive for energetic maintenance. Local annual survival rate was 0.62 ± 0.04, within the range of values reported for breeding populations at Manitoba and Alaska (0.53–0.76). The similarity was not unexpected because estimates were obtained annually but at opposite sites of their annual migratory movements. Birds captured at the salt flats appeared to be a mix of birds from various parts of the breeding range, judging from morphology (culmen's coefficient of variation = 9.1, n = 106). This suggested that origin (breeding area) of birds and their proportion in the data should be ascertained and accounted for in analyses to glean the full conservation implications of winter-based annual survival estimates. Those data are needed to unravel the possibility that individuals of distinct populations are affected by differential mortality factors across different migratory routes. Mean length of stay strongly suggested that habitat quality at the salt flats was high. Rainfall and tidal flow combine to increase food availability during fall. The salt flats dry up gradually toward late January, at the onset of the dry season. Semipalmated Sandpipers may move west to other Greater Antilles or south to sites such as coastal Surinam until the onset of spring migration. They are not an oversummering species at the salt flats. Conservation efforts in the Caribbean region require understanding the dynamics of this species throughout winter to protect

  9. Diabetic foot reconstruction using free flaps increases 5-year-survival rate.

    PubMed

    Oh, Tae Suk; Lee, Ho Seung; Hong, Joon Pio

    2013-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcome of the diabetic foot reconstructed with free flaps and analyse the preoperative risk factors. This study reviews 121 cases of reconstructed diabetic foot in 113 patients over 9 years (average follow-up of 53.2 months). Patients' age ranged from 26 to 78 years (average, 54.6 years). Free flaps used were anterolateral thigh (ALT, 90), superficial circumflex iliac artery perforator (SCIP, 20), anteromedial thigh (AMT, 5), upper medial thigh (UMT, 3), and other perforator free flaps (3). Correlation between the surgical outcome and preoperative risk factors were analysed using logistic regression model. Total loss was seen in 10 cases and 111 free-tissue transfers were successful (flap survival rate of 91.7%). During follow-up, limb was eventually lost in 17 patients and overall limb salvage rate was 84.9% and the 5-year survival was 86.8%. Correlation between flap loss and 14 preoperative risk factors (computed tomography (CT) angiogram showing intact numbers of major vessels, history of previous angioplasty, peripheral arterial disease (PAD), heart problem, chronic renal failure (CRF), American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification system, smoking, body mass index (BMI), HBA1c, lymphocyte count, ankle-brachial index (ABI), osteomyelitis, C-reactive protein (CRP) level and whether taking immunosuppressive agents) were analysed. Significant odds ratio were seen in patients who underwent lower extremity angioplasties (odds ratio: 17.590, p<0.001), with PAD (odds ratio: 10.212, p=0.032) and taking immunosuppressive agents after kidney transplantation (odds ratio: 4.857, p<0.041). Diabetic foot reconstruction using free flaps has a high chance for success and significantly increases the 5-year survival rate. Risk factors such as PAD, history of angioplasties in the extremity and using immunosuppressive agents after transplant may increase the chance for flap loss.

  10. [Survival and success rate of dental implants treated with high intensity laser].

    PubMed

    Joób-Fancsaly, Arpád; Divinyi, Tamás; Karacs, Albert; Koncz, Szilvia; Pető, Gábor; Sulyok, Lili

    2015-09-01

    Clinical and radiological evaluations were conducted in patients with high energy Nd : glass laser-treated dental implants. These patients underwent dental implantation surgery between 1997 and 2006. Strict success criteria were used for the examination and analysis of implants. Based on clinical and radiological evaluation, success and survival rates of laser surface treated dental implants were similar to those of sandblasted, acid-etched surface implants frequently reported in the literature. Specific surface morphology and high degree of purity of laser surface treated dental implants ensure excellent osseointegration and a good clinical performance also on the long-term.

  11. Survival of mammalian cells exposed to ultrahigh dose rates from a laser-produced plasma x-ray source.

    PubMed

    Tillman, C; Grafström, G; Jonsson, A C; Jönsson, B A; Mercer, I; Mattsson, S; Strand, S E; Svanberg, S

    1999-12-01

    To determine whether intense laser-produced x rays have an increased radiation hazard. Mammalian cells were exposed to x rays from a laser-produced plasma that produced ultrahigh peak absorbed dose rates, up to a factor of 10(10) higher than those produced by conventional x rays used in imaging. The cell survival was studied as a function of the absorbed dose. The survival of mammalian cells exposed to high peak absorbed dose rates with laser-produced x rays was compared with the survival of cells exposed to standard absorbed dose rates with conventional x-ray sources. Comparative survival studies were performed by using a conventional x-ray tube and a cobalt 60 source. The absorbed doses in the irradiation field were measured with thermoluminescent dosimeters. Cell survival following irradiation by filtered, laser-produced x rays with a high dose rate was not markedly different from the survival following irradiation by conventional sources. There was, however, a notable difference between the survival after exposure to filtered, laser-produced x rays and the survival after exposure to unfiltered laser-produced x rays. Exposure to filtered, laser-produced x rays with a high dose rate does not lead to increased harm to mammalian cells exposed in vitro compared with the harm from exposure to x rays from conventional sources, which indicates that the use of high-power laser facilities for medical imaging is justified.

  12. High Survival Rates and Associated Factors Among Ebola Virus Disease Patients Hospitalized at Donka National Hospital, Conakry, Guinea

    PubMed Central

    Qureshi, Adnan I.; Chughtai, Morad; Bah, Elhadj Ibrahima; Barry, Moumié; Béavogui, Kézély; Loua, Tokpagnan Oscar; Malik, Ahmed A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Anecdotal reports suggesting that survival rates among hospitalized patients with Ebola virus disease in Guinea are higher than the 29.2% rate observed in the current epidemic in West Africa. Methods Survival after symptom onset was determined using Kaplan Meier survival methods among patients with confirmed Ebola virus disease treated in Conakry, Guinea from March 25, 2014, to August 5, 2014. We analyzed the relationship between survival and patient factors, including demographics and clinical features. Results Of the 70 patients analyzed [mean age ± standard deviation (SD), 34 ± 14.1; 44 were men], 42 were discharged alive with a survival rate among hospitalized patients of 60% (95% confidence interval, 41.5–78.5%). The survival rate was 28 (71.8%) among 39 patients under 34 years of age, and 14 (46.7%) among 30 patients aged 35 years or greater (p = 0.034). The rates of myalgia (3 of 42 versus 7 of 28, p = 0.036) and hiccups (1 of 42 versus 5 of 28, p = 0.023) were significantly lower among patients who survived. Conclusions Our results provide insights into a cohort of hospitalized patients with Ebola virus disease in whom survival is prominently higher than seen in other cohorts of hospitalized patients. PMID:25992182

  13. Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multi-year ice survival rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armour, K.; Bitz, C. M.; Hunke, E. C.; Thompson, L.

    2009-12-01

    The recent decrease in Arctic sea ice cover has transpired with a significant loss of multi-year (MY) ice. The transition to an Arctic that is populated by thinner first-year (FY) sea ice has important implications for future trends in area and volume. We develop a reduced model for Arctic sea ice with which we investigate how the survivability of FY and MY ice control various aspects of the sea-ice system. We demonstrate that Arctic sea-ice area and volume behave approximately as first-order autoregressive processes, which allows for a simple interpretation of September sea-ice in which its mean state, variability, and sensitivity to climate forcing can be described naturally in terms of the average survival rates of FY and MY ice. This model, used in concert with a sea-ice simulation that traces FY and MY ice areas to estimate the survival rates, reveals that small trends in the ice survival rates explain the decline in total Arctic ice area, and the relatively larger loss of MY ice area, over the period 1979-2006. Additionally, our model allows for a calculation of the persistence time scales of September area and volume anomalies. A relatively short memory time scale for ice area (~ 1 year) implies that Arctic ice area is nearly in equilibrium with long-term climate forcing at all times, and therefore observed trends in area are a clear indication of a changing climate. A longer memory time scale for ice volume (~ 5 years) suggests that volume can be out of equilibrium with climate forcing for long periods of time, and therefore trends in ice volume are difficult to distinguish from its natural variability. With our reduced model, we demonstrate the connection between memory time scale and sensitivity to climate forcing, and discuss the implications that a changing memory time scale has on the trajectory of ice area and volume in a warming climate. Our findings indicate that it is unlikely that a “tipping point” in September ice area and volume will be

  14. A long-term retrospective analysis of survival rates of implants in the mandible.

    PubMed

    Balshi, Thomas J; Wolfinger, Glenn J; Stein, Brett E; Balshi, Stephen F

    2015-01-01

    To retrospectively analyze the survival rate of endosseous dental implants placed in the edentulous or partially edentulous mandible over a long-term follow-up period of 10 years or more. The charts of patients who underwent mandibular implant placement at a private prosthodontics practice and received follow-up care for 10 years or more were included in this study. Implants were examined according to the following study variables: patient sex, patient age, degree of edentulism (fully vs partially edentulous), implant location, time of loading (delayed vs immediate), implant size and type, bone quality, prosthesis type, and the presence of other implants during placement. The study sample was composed of 2,394 implants placed in 470 patients with 10 to 27 years of follow-up. Of these 2,394 implants, 176 failed, resulting in an overall cumulative survival rate (CSR) of 92.6%. A total of 1,482 implants were placed in edentulous mandibles, and 912 implants were placed in partially edentulous mandibles, with CSRs of 92.6% and 92.7%, respectively. Comparisons of the study variables with respect to CSR were largely nonsignificant. However, there were significant differences in CSRs between anterior vs posterior locations and rough- vs smooth-surfaced implants in addition to some prosthesis types, ages, and bone qualities. The overall CSR of 92.6% in the present study is high and comparable to survival rates observed in previous long-term analyses of mandibular implants. The significant differences observed between implant locations, patient age groups, bone qualities, and prostheses were not suggestive of any remarkable trends. Patient sex, age, degree of edentulism, implant location, time of loading, implant size and type, bone quality, prosthesis type, and the presence of multiple implants did not result in any significant effect on long-term implant survival. The CSR observed after 10 to 27 years of follow-up in a single private prosthodontic center was high (92

  15. A mathematical proof and example that Bayes's Theorem is fundamental to actuarial estimates of sexual recidivism risk.

    PubMed

    Donaldson, Theodore; Wollert, Richard

    2008-06-01

    Expert witnesses in sexually violent predator (SVP) cases often rely on actuarial instruments to make risk determinations. Many questions surround their use, however. Bayes's Theorem holds much promise for addressing these questions. Some experts nonetheless claim that Bayesian analyses are inadmissible in SVP cases because they are not accepted by the relevant scientific community. This position is illogical because Bayes's Theorem is simply a probabilistic restatement of the way that frequency data are combined to arrive at whatever recidivism rates are paired with each test score in an actuarial table. This article presents a mathematical proof and example validating this assertion. The advantages and implications of a logic model that combines Bayes's Theorem and the null hypothesis are also discussed.

  16. Cumulative survival rate and associated risk factors of Implantium implants: A 10-year retrospective clinical study.

    PubMed

    Park, Jin-Hong; Kim, Young-Soo; Ryu, Jae-Jun; Shin, Sang-Wan; Lee, Jeong-Yol

    2017-06-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the cumulative survival rate (CSR) and associated risk factors of Implantium implants by retrospective clinical study. Patients who received Implantium implants (Dentium Co., Seoul, Korea) at Korea University Guro Hospital from 2004 to 2011 were included. The period between the first surgery and the last hospital visit until December 2015 was set as the observation period for this study. Clinical and radiographic data were collected from patient records, including all complications observed during the follow-up period. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to examine CSR. Multiple Cox proportional hazard model was employed to assess the associations between potential risk factors and CSR. A total of 370 implants were placed in 121 patients (mean age, 56.1 years; range, 19 to 75 years). Of the 370 implants, 13 failed, including 7 implants that were lost before loading. The 10-year cumulative survival rate of implants was 94.8%. The multiple Cox proportional hazard model revealed that significant risk factor of implant failure were smoking and maxillary implant (P<.05). The 10-year CSR of Implantium implants was 94.8%. Risk factors of implant failure were smoking and maxillary implant.

  17. Energy related germination and survival rates of water-imbibed Arabidopsis seeds irradiated with protons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, H. L.; Xue, J. M.; Lai, J. N.; Wang, J. Y.; Zhang, W. M.; Miao, Q.; Yan, S.; Zhao, W. J.; He, F.; Gu, H. Y.; Wang, Y. G.

    2006-04-01

    In order to investigate the influence of ion energy on the germination and survival rates, water-imbibed Arabidopsis seeds were irradiated with protons in atmosphere. The ion fluence used in this experiment was in the range of 4 × 109-1 × 1014 ions/cm2. The ion energy is from 1.1 MeV to 6.5 MeV. According to the structure of the seed and TRIM simulation, the ions with the energy of 6.5 MeV can irradiate the shoot apical meristem directly whereas the ions with the energy of 1.1 MeV cannot. The results showed that both the germination and survival rates decrease while increasing the ion fluence, and the fluence-respond curve for each energy has different character. Besides the shoot apical meristem (SAM), which is generally considered as the main radiobiological target, the existence of a secondary target around SAM is proposed in this paper.

  18. Egg Hatch Rate and Nymphal Survival of the Bed Bug (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) After Exposure to Insecticide Sprays.

    PubMed

    Hinson, K R; Benson, E P; Zungoli, P A; Bridges, W C; Ellis, B R

    2016-12-01

    Few studies have addressed the efficacy of insecticides used against eggs and first-instar nymphs of the bed bug, Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae). Insect eggs are often resistant to insecticides; therefore, information on which products are effective is important. We evaluated the efficacy of four commonly used insecticide sprays applied directly to bed bug eggs. We also evaluated the efficacy of these insecticides to first-instar nymphs exposed to residuals resulting from directly spraying eggs. Temprid SC (beta-cyfluthrin, imidacloprid) was the most effective insecticide at preventing egg hatch (13% hatch rate) for pyrethroid-resistant, field-strain (Jersey City) bed bugs compared with a control (water [99% hatch rate]), Bedlam (MGK-264, sumithrin [84% hatch rate]), Demand CS (lambda-cyhalothrin [91% hatch rate]), and Phantom SC (chlorfenapyr [95% hatch rate]). Demand CS and Temprid SC were most effective at preventing egg hatch (0%) for an insecticide-susceptible (Harold Harlan) strain, followed by Bedlam (28%). Phantom SC produced a hatch rate similar to the control (97% and 96%, respectively). Harold Harlan-strain nymphs showed 100% survival for the control but 0% survival for Bedlam and Phantom SC. Jersey City-strain nymphs showed 100% survival for the control, 99% survival for Bedlam, 0% survival for Demand CS, 4% survival for Phantom SC, and 38% survival for Temprid SC. Demand CS was less effective at preventing hatch (91% hatch rate) of Jersey City-strain nymphs but was the only product to kill all nymphs (0% survival). One of the least effective products for preventing Jersey City-strain egg hatch (Phantom SC, 95% hatch rate) was the second most effective at killing nymphs, leaving only six of 141 alive. These findings indicate that survival of directly sprayed eggs and residually exposed, first-instar nymphs varies by strain, life stage, and product used.

  19. Comparing measurement error correction methods for rate-of-change exposure variables in survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Veronesi, Giovanni; Ferrario, Marco M; Chambless, Lloyd E

    2013-12-01

    In this article we focus on comparing measurement error correction methods for rate-of-change exposure variables in survival analysis, when longitudinal data are observed prior to the follow-up time. Motivational examples include the analysis of the association between changes in cardiovascular risk factors and subsequent onset of coronary events. We derive a measurement error model for the rate of change, estimated through subject-specific linear regression, assuming an additive measurement error model for the time-specific measurements. The rate of change is then included as a time-invariant variable in a Cox proportional hazards model, adjusting for the first time-specific measurement (baseline) and an error-free covariate. In a simulation study, we compared bias, standard deviation and mean squared error (MSE) for the regression calibration (RC) and the simulation-extrapolation (SIMEX) estimators. Our findings indicate that when the amount of measurement error is substantial, RC should be the preferred method, since it has smaller MSE for estimating the coefficients of the rate of change and of the variable measured without error. However, when the amount of measurement error is small, the choice of the method should take into account the event rate in the population and the effect size to be estimated. An application to an observational study, as well as examples of published studies where our model could have been applied, are also provided.

  20. Modeling the effect of temperature on survival rate of Salmonella Enteritidis in yogurt.

    PubMed

    Szczawiński, J; Szczawińska, M E; Łobacz, A; Jackowska-Tracz, A

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the study was to determine the inactivation rates of Salmonella Enteritidis in commercially produced yogurt and to generate primary and secondary mathematical models to predict the behaviour of these bacteria during storage at different temperatures. The samples were inoculated with the mixture of three S. Enteritidis strains and stored at 5 degrees C, 10 degrees C, 15 degrees C, 20 degrees C and 25 degrees C for 24 h. The number of salmonellae was determined every two hours. It was found that the number of bacteria decreased linearly with storage time in all samples. Storage temperature and pH of yogurt significantly influenced survival rate of S. Enteritidis (p < 0.05). In samples kept at 5 degrees C the number of salmonellae decreased at the lowest rate, whereas at 25 degrees C the reduction in number of bacteria was the most dynamic. The natural logarithm of mean inactivation rates of Salmonella calculated from primary model was fitted to two secondary models: linear and polynomial. Equations obtained from both secondary models can be applied as a tool for prediction of inactivation rate of Salmonella in yogurt stored under temperature range from 5 to 25 degrees C; however, polynomial model gave the better fit to the experimental data.

  1. Patient self-reports of symptoms and clinician ratings as predictors of overall cancer survival.

    PubMed

    Quinten, Chantal; Maringwa, John; Gotay, Carolyn C; Martinelli, Francesca; Coens, Corneel; Reeve, Bryce B; Flechtner, Henning; Greimel, Eva; King, Madeleine; Osoba, David; Cleeland, Charles; Ringash, Jolie; Schmucker-Von Koch, Joseph; Taphoorn, Martin J B; Weis, Joachim; Bottomley, Andrew

    2011-12-21

    The National Cancer Institute's Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (NCI-CTCAE) reporting system is widely used by clinicians to measure patient symptoms in clinical trials. The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer's Quality of Life core questionnaire (EORTC QLQ-C30) enables cancer patients to rate their symptoms related to their quality of life. We examined the extent to which patient and clinician symptom scoring and their agreement could contribute to the estimation of overall survival among cancer patients. We analyzed baseline data regarding six cancer symptoms (pain, fatigue, vomiting, nausea, diarrhea, and constipation) from a total of 2279 cancer patients from 14 closed EORTC randomized controlled trials. In each trial that was selected for retrospective pooled analysis, both clinician and patient symptom scoring were reported simultaneously at study entry. We assessed the extent of agreement between clinician vs patient symptom scoring using the Spearman and kappa correlation statistics. After adjusting for age, sex, performance status, cancer severity, and cancer site, we used Harrell concordance index (C-index) to compare the potential for clinician-reported and/or patient-reported symptom scores to improve the accuracy of Cox models to predict overall survival. All P values are from two-sided tests. Patient-reported scores for some symptoms, particularly fatigue, did differ from clinician-reported scores. For each of the six symptoms that we assessed at baseline, both clinician and patient scorings contributed independently and positively to the predictive accuracy of survival prognostication. Cox models of overall survival that considered both patient and clinician scores gained more predictive accuracy than models that considered clinician scores alone for each of four symptoms: fatigue (C-index = .67 with both patient and clinician data vs C-index = .63 with clinician data only; P <.001), vomiting (C-index = .64 vs

  2. On the Validity of Using Increases in 5-Year Survival Rates to Measure Success in the Fight against Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Maruvka, Yosef E.; Tang, Min; Michor, Franziska

    2014-01-01

    Background The 5-year survival rate of cancer patients is the most commonly used statistic to reflect improvements in the war against cancer. This idea, however, was refuted based on an analysis showing that changes in 5-year survival over time bear no relationship with changes in cancer mortality. Methods Here we show that progress in the fight against cancer can be evaluated by analyzing the association between 5-year survival rates and mortality rates normalized by the incidence (mortality over incidence, MOI). Changes in mortality rates are caused by improved clinical management as well as changing incidence rates, and since the latter can mask the effects of the former, it can also mask the correlation between survival and mortality rates. However, MOI is a more robust quantity and reflects improvements in cancer outcomes by overcoming the masking effect of changing incidence rates. Using population-based statistics for the US and the European Nordic countries, we determined the association of changes in 5-year survival rates and MOI. Results We observed a strong correlation between changes in 5-year survival rates of cancer patients and changes in the MOI for all the countries tested. This finding demonstrates that there is no reason to assume that the improvements in 5-year survival rates are artificial. We obtained consistent results when examining the subset of cancer types whose incidence did not increase, suggesting that over-diagnosis does not obscure the results. Conclusions We have demonstrated, via the negative correlation between changes in 5-year survival rates and changes in MOI, that increases in 5-year survival rates reflect real improvements over time made in the clinical management of cancer. Furthermore, we found that increases in 5-year survival rates are not predominantly artificial byproducts of lead-time bias, as implied in the literature. The survival measure alone can therefore be used for a rough approximation of the amount of progress

  3. Myasthenia gravis in patients with thymoma affects survival rate following extended thymectomy

    PubMed Central

    ZHANG, ZHEFENG; CUI, YOUBIN; JIA, RUI; XUE, LEI; LIANG, HUAGANG

    2016-01-01

    Thymomas are the most common adult tumors in the anterior mediastinal compartment, and a significant amount of thymomas are complicated by myasthenia gravis (MG). Extended thymectomy (ET) is the primary treatment method for thymomas and is used to completely resect possible ectopic thymus to avoid recurrence. Studies on the effect of MG in thymoma patients following ET are limited. The aim of the present study was to determine whether the presence of MG affects the prognosis of patients with thymoma. The present study consisted of 104 patients with thymoma that underwent ET; 61 men (58.7%) and 43 women (41.3%) (mean age, 54.6 years). In total, 38 patients had MG (36.5%). MG was most frequently observed in World Health Organization (WHO) classification type B2 thymoma compared with other types of thymoma. During the 5-year follow-up period, 11 patients succumbed to a recurrence of thymoma or respiratory failure due to MG. The overall 5-year survival rate in patients without MG or with MG was 89.1 and 76.0%, respectively. The overall survival (OS) rate in patients with Masaoka stages I + II and III + IV was 90.0 and 68.0%, respectively. The OS rate in patients with WHO type A + AB + B1 and type B2 + B3 was 96.9 and 76.8%, respectively. The patients with MG (P=0.026), Masaoka stages III + IV (P=0.008) and WHO type B2 + B3 (P=0.032) had a poorer prognosis compared with patients without these characteristics. Furthermore, multivariate analysis by Cox regression revealed that age [P=0.032; relative risk (RR)=1.097; 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.097–1.192] and MG (P=0.042; RR=0.167; 95% CI=0.037–0.940) significantly affected OS rate. In summary, ET is a reliable method for the treatment of thymoma. Long-term survival is expected for patients at early Masaoka stages, and for patients without MG. The prognosis of patients with thymomas with MG is poorer compared with patients without MG. The present findings provide useful information for the future management of

  4. Tidal and seasonal effects on survival rates of the endangered California clapper rail: does invasive Spartina facilitate greater survival in a dynamic environment?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Overton, Cory T.; Casazza, Michael L.; Takekawa, John Y.; Strong, Donald R.; Holyoak, Marcel

    2014-01-01

    Invasive species frequently degrade habitats, disturb ecosystem processes, and can increase the likelihood of extinction of imperiled populations. However, novel or enhanced functions provided by invading species may reduce the impact of processes that limit populations. It is important to recognize how invasive species benefit endangered species to determine overall effects on sensitive ecosystems. For example, since the 1990s, hybrid Spartina (Spartina foliosa × alterniflora) has expanded throughout South San Francisco Bay, USA, supplanting native vegetation and invading mudflats. The endangered California clapper rail (Rallus longirostris obsoletus) uses the tall, dense hybrid Spartina for cover and nesting, but the effects of hybrid Spartina on clapper rail survival was unknown. We estimated survival rates of 108 radio-marked California clapper rails in South San Francisco Bay from January 2007 to March 2010, a period of extensive hybrid Spartina eradication, with Kaplan–Meier product limit estimators. Clapper rail survival patterns were consistent with hybrid Spartina providing increased refuge cover from predators during tidal extremes which flood native vegetation, particularly during the winter when the vegetation senesces. Model averaged annual survival rates within hybrid Spartina dominated marshes before eradication (Ŝ = 0.466) were greater than the same marshes posttreatment (Ŝ = 0.275) and a marsh dominated by native vegetation (Ŝ = 0.272). However, models with and without marsh treatment as explanatory factor for survival rates had nearly equivalent support in the observed data, lending ambiguity as to whether hybrid Spartina facilitated greater survival rates than native marshland. Conservation actions to aid in recovery of this endangered species should recognize the importance of available of high tide refugia, particularly in light of invasive species eradication programs and projections of future sea-level rise.

  5. Stadium IB - IIA cervical cancer patient’s survival rate after receiving definitive radiation and radical operation therapy followed by adjuvant radiation therapy along with analysis of factors affecting the patient’s survival rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruslim, S. K.; Purwoto, G.; Widyahening, I. S.; Ramli, I.

    2017-08-01

    To evaluate the characteristics and overall survival rates of early stage cervical cancer (FIGO IB-IIA) patients who receive definitive radiation therapy and those who are prescribed adjuvant postoperative radiation and to conduct a factors analysis of the variables that affect the overall survival rates in both groups of therapy. The medical records of 85 patients with cervical cancer FIGO stages IB-IIA who were treated at the Department of Radiotherapy of Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital were reviewed and analyzed to determine their overall survival and the factors that affected it between a definitive radiation group and an adjuvant postoperative radiation group. There were 25 patients in the definitive radiation and 60 patients in the adjuvant radiation group. The overall survival rates in the adjuvant radiation group at years one, two, and three were 96.7%, 95%, and 93.3%, respectively. Negative lymph node metastasis had an average association with overall survival (p < 0.2). In the definitive radiation group, overall survival at years one, two, and three were 96%, 92%, and 92%, respectively. A hemoglobin (Hb) level >12 g/dl was a factor with an average association with the overall survival (p < 0.2). The differences between both groups of therapy were not statistically significant (92% vs. 93.3%; p = 0.138). This study did not show any statistically significant overall survival for cervical cancer FIGO stage IB-IIA patients who received definitive radiation or adjuvant postoperative radiation. Negative lymph node metastasis had an effect on the overall survival rate in the adjuvant postoperative radiation group, while a preradiation Hb level >12 g/dl tended to affect the overall survival in the definitive radiation group patients.

  6. Five-year Survival Rate for Gastric Cancer in Yazd Province, Central Iran, from 2001 to 2008.

    PubMed

    Akhondi-Meybodi, Mohsen; Ghane, Marzieh; Akhondi-Meybodi, Sara; Dashti, Golnaz

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND The number of patients with gastric cancer is growing worldwide. In Iran (in 2009) of 74067 new cases of cancer, 6886 were diagnosed as having gastric cancer. This study was conducted to investigate 5-year survival rate for gastric cancer in Yazd province, central Iran. METHODS In this descriptive study, the medical records of patients with gastric cancer were collected from the archives of Yazd hospitals from 2001 to 2008. The data gathered included age, sex, type of histopathology, site of involvement, cancer staging, and mode of treatment, which were analyzed using SPSS software version 11.5. To investigate the survival and the factors influencing the survival time of patients, which are the main objectives of this study, Kaplan-Meier method was used and Cox proportional hazards model was fitted to the data. To compare survival function in different subgroups, the log rank test or generalized Wilcoxon test was used. RESULTS 295 cases of gastric cancer were enrolled in the study. The mean age of the subjects was 59.3 ± 9 years. 5-year survival rate of the patients was calculated as 18% where the highest rate was 39% for the age group of 50-60 years and the lowest was 3% for the age group of above 80 years. 5-year survival rates in different groups were as follows: 32% in women, 13% in men; 16% in adenocarcinoma, 46% in other pathologies; 16% in gastric cardia involvement, 17% in antrum; 59% in stage 1, 31% in stage 2, 13% in stage 3, and 3% in stage 4. CONCLUSION The results of this study showed that age, stage of the cancer, mode of therapy, and type of histopathology affected the survival rate of gastric cancer. No significant association was found between the site of involvement and survival rate. In general, the survival rate for gastric cancer was low, which might be due to slow but steady progress of the disease and delayed referral of the patients.

  7. Effect of nitric oxide on spinal evoked potentials and survival rate in rats with decompression sickness.

    PubMed

    Randsoe, T; Meehan, C F; Broholm, H; Hyldegaard, O

    2015-01-01

    Nitric oxide (NO) releasing agents have, in experimental settings, been shown to decrease intravascular nitrogen bubble formation and to increase the survival rate during decompression sickness (DCS) from diving. The effect has been ascribed to a possible removal of preexisting micronuclei or an increased nitrogen washout on decompression through augmented blood flow rate. The present experiments were conducted to investigate whether a short- or long-acting NO donor [glycerol trinitrate (GTN) or isosorbide-5-mononitrate (ISMN), respectively] would offer the same protection against spinal cord DCS evaluated by means of spinal evoked potentials (SEPs). Anesthetized rats were decompressed from a 1-h hyperbaric air dive at 506.6 kPa (40 m of seawater) for 3 min and 17 s, and spinal cord conduction was studied by measurements of SEPs. Histological samples of the spinal cord were analyzed for lesions of DCS. In total, 58 rats were divided into 6 different treatment groups. The first three received either saline (group 1), 300 mg/kg iv ISMN (group 2), or 10 mg/kg ip GTN (group 3) before compression. The last three received either 300 mg/kg iv ISMN (group 4), 1 mg/kg iv GTN (group 5), or 75 μg/kg iv GTN (group 6) during the dive, before decompression. In all groups, decompression caused considerable intravascular bubble formation. The ISMN groups showed no difference compared with the control group, whereas the GTN groups showed a tendency toward faster SEP disappearance and shorter survival times. In conclusion, neither a short- nor long-acting NO donor had any protective effect against fatal DCS by intravenous bubble formation. This effect is most likely due to a fast ascent rate overriding the protective effects of NO, rather than the total inert tissue gas load. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  8. Age specific survival rates of Steller sea lions at rookeries with divergent population trends in the Russian Far East.

    PubMed

    Altukhov, Alexey V; Andrews, Russel D; Calkins, Donald G; Gelatt, Thomas S; Gurarie, Eliezer D; Loughlin, Thomas R; Mamaev, Evgeny G; Nikulin, Victor S; Permyakov, Peter A; Ryazanov, Sergey D; Vertyankin, Vladimir V; Burkanov, Vladimir N

    2015-01-01

    After a dramatic population decline, Steller sea lions have begun to recover throughout most of their range. However, Steller sea lions in the Western Aleutians and Commander Islands are continuing to decline. Comparing survival rates between regions with different population trends may provide insights into the factors driving the dynamics, but published data on vital rates have been extremely scarce, especially in regions where the populations are still declining. Fortunately, an unprecedented dataset of marked Steller sea lions at rookeries in the Russian Far East is available, allowing us to determine age and sex specific survival in sea lions up to 22 years old. We focused on survival rates in three areas in the Russian range with differing population trends: the Commander Islands (Medny Island rookery), Eastern Kamchatka (Kozlov Cape rookery) and the Kuril Islands (four rookeries). Survival rates differed between these three regions, though not necessarily as predicted by population trends. Pup survival was higher where the populations were declining (Medny Island) or not recovering (Kozlov Cape) than in all Kuril Island rookeries. The lowest adult (> 3 years old) female survival was found on Medny Island and this may be responsible for the continued population decline there. However, the highest adult survival was found at Kozlov Cape, not in the Kuril Islands where the population is increasing, so we suggest that differences in birth rates might be an important driver of these divergent population trends. High pup survival on the Commander Islands and Kamchatka Coast may be a consequence of less frequent (e.g. biennial) reproduction there, which may permit females that skip birth years to invest more in their offspring, leading to higher pup survival, but this hypothesis awaits measurement of birth rates in these areas.

  9. Age Specific Survival Rates of Steller Sea Lions at Rookeries with Divergent Population Trends in the Russian Far East

    PubMed Central

    Altukhov, Alexey V.; Andrews, Russel D.; Calkins, Donald G.; Gelatt, Thomas S.; Gurarie, Eliezer D.; Loughlin, Thomas R.; Mamaev, Evgeny G.; Nikulin, Victor S.; Permyakov, Peter A.; Ryazanov, Sergey D.; Vertyankin, Vladimir V.; Burkanov, Vladimir N.

    2015-01-01

    After a dramatic population decline, Steller sea lions have begun to recover throughout most of their range. However, Steller sea lions in the Western Aleutians and Commander Islands are continuing to decline. Comparing survival rates between regions with different population trends may provide insights into the factors driving the dynamics, but published data on vital rates have been extremely scarce, especially in regions where the populations are still declining. Fortunately, an unprecedented dataset of marked Steller sea lions at rookeries in the Russian Far East is available, allowing us to determine age and sex specific survival in sea lions up to 22 years old. We focused on survival rates in three areas in the Russian range with differing population trends: the Commander Islands (Medny Island rookery), Eastern Kamchatka (Kozlov Cape rookery) and the Kuril Islands (four rookeries). Survival rates differed between these three regions, though not necessarily as predicted by population trends. Pup survival was higher where the populations were declining (Medny Island) or not recovering (Kozlov Cape) than in all Kuril Island rookeries. The lowest adult (> 3 years old) female survival was found on Medny Island and this may be responsible for the continued population decline there. However, the highest adult survival was found at Kozlov Cape, not in the Kuril Islands where the population is increasing, so we suggest that differences in birth rates might be an important driver of these divergent population trends. High pup survival on the Commander Islands and Kamchatka Coast may be a consequence of less frequent (e.g. biennial) reproduction there, which may permit females that skip birth years to invest more in their offspring, leading to higher pup survival, but this hypothesis awaits measurement of birth rates in these areas. PMID:26016772

  10. Size-sex variation in survival rates and abundance of pig frogs, Rana grylio, in northern Florida wetlands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, K.V.; Nichols, J.D.; Percival, H.F.; Hines, J.E.

    1998-01-01

    During 1991-1993, we conducted capture-recapture studies on pig frogs, Rana grylio, in seven study locations in northcentral Florida. Resulting data were used to test hypotheses about variation in survival probability over different size-sex classes of pig frogs. We developed multistate capture-recapture models for the resulting data and used them to estimate survival rates and frog abundance. Tests provided strong evidence of survival differences among size-sex classes, with adult females showing the highest survival probabilities. Adult males and juvenile frogs had lower survival rates that were similar to each other. Adult females were more abundant than adult males in most locations at most sampling occasions. We recommended probabilistic capture-recapture models in general, and multistate models in particular, for robust estimation of demographic parameters in amphibian populations.

  11. Outpatient-shopping behavior and survival rates in newly diagnosed cancer patients.

    PubMed

    Chiou, Shang-Jyh; Wang, Shiow-Ing; Liu, Chien-Hsiang; Yaung, Chih-Liang

    2012-09-01

    To evaluate the appropriateness of the definition of outpatient-shopping behavior in Taiwanese patients. Linked study of 3 databases (Taiwan Cancer Registry, National Health Insurance [NHI] claim database, and death registry database). Outpatient shopping behavior was defined as making at least 4 or 5 physician visits to confirm a cancer diagnosis. We analyzed patient-related factors and the 5-year overall survival rate of the outpatient-shopping group compared with a nonshopping group. Using the household registration database and NHI database, we determined the proportion of outpatient shopping, characteristics of patients who did and did not shop for outpatient therapy, time between diagnosis and start of regular treatment, and medical service utilization in the shopping versus the nonshopping group. Patients with higher incomes were significantly more likely to shop for outpatient care. Patients with higher comorbidity scores were 1.4 times more likely to shop for outpatient care than patients with lower scores. Patients diagnosed with more advanced cancer were more likely to shop than those who were not. Patients might be more trusting of cancer diagnoses given at higher-level hospitals. The nonshopping groups had a longer duration of survival over 5 years. Health authorities should consider charging additional fees after a specific outpatient- shopping threshold is reached to reduce this behavior. The government may need to reassess the function of the medical sources network by shrinking it from the original 4 levels to 2 levels, or by enhancing the referral function among different hospital levels.

  12. Assessment of survival rates and reproductive success of captive bred milky stork released at Kuala Gula Bird Sanctuary, Perak

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faiq, H.; Safie, M. Y.; Shukor, M. N.

    2016-11-01

    A release programme of captive bred Milky Storks was initiated to increase population size in the wild. Population size depends on the survival rate and breeding success of individuals in the population. Among factors that affect survival rate and breeding success are population age class and sex ratio. The main objective of this study was to estimate the survival rate of Mycteria cinerea that has been released in Kuala Gula Bird Sanctuary since 2007. The estimation of the survival rate was done across gender and age class. This study was conducted in 2012 at Kuala Gula Bird Sanctuary. The presence of M. cinerea individuals were recorded at the sanctuary and identified to background information, such as date of birth, gender and date of release. Females of M. cinerea were estimated to have a higher survival rate (30.0%) than male (16.7%). Across gender, each individual was assigned into 4 different age classes, namely less than 1 year, between 1 and 2 years, between 2 and 3 years, and more than 3 years. The survival rate of individuals less than 1 year was about 50%, between 1 and 2 years was 25%, between 2 and 3 years was 9.1%, and more than 3 years was 0%. This study was intended to facilitate future release programmeme on which gender and age class to emphasize.

  13. Population projections for AIDS using an actuarial model.

    PubMed

    Wilkie, A D

    1989-09-05

    This paper gives details of a model for forecasting AIDS, developed for actuarial purposes, but used also for population projections. The model is only appropriate for homosexual transmission, but it is age-specific, and it allows variation in the transition intensities by age, duration in certain states and calendar year. The differential equations controlling transitions between states are defined, the method of numerical solution is outlined, and the parameters used in five different Bases of projection are given in detail. Numerical results for the population of England and Wales are shown.

  14. Capture-recapture estimation of prebreeding survival rate for birds exhibiting delayed maturation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Spendelow, J.A.; Hines, J.E.

    1990-01-01

    Many species of seabirds exhibit delayed maturity and do not return to the natal colony to breed for several years after fledging. Capture-recapture studies are frequently conducted at such breeding colonies and often include marking of young birds. However, because of the absence of these birds from the natal colony during the first few years after banding, the data do not fit neatly into existing capture-recapture models. Here we present a method for estimating prebreeding survival rate from capture-recapture studies on species exhibiting such patterns of delayed maturation. We illustrate the method using data from a capture-recapture study of Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii ) on Falkner Island, Connecticut. The method appears to work well and emphasizes the potential to tailor capture-recapture models to specific field situations.

  15. Survival rate and prognostic factors of conventional osteosarcoma in Northern Thailand: A series from Chiang Mai University Hospital.

    PubMed

    Pruksakorn, Dumnoensun; Phanphaisarn, Areerak; Arpornchayanon, Olarn; Uttamo, Nantawat; Leerapun, Taninnit; Settakorn, Jongkolnee

    2015-12-01

    Osteosarcoma is a common and aggressive primary malignant bone tumor occurring in children and adolescents. It is one of the most aggressive human cancers and the most common cause of cancer-associated limb loss. As treatment in Thailand has produced a lower survival rate than in developed countries; therefore, this study identified survival rate and the poor prognostic factors of osteosarcoma in Northern Thailand. The retrospective cases of osteosarcoma, diagnosis between 1 January 1996 and 31 December 2013, were evaluated. Five and ten year overall survival rates were analyzed using time-to-event analysis. Potential prognostic factors were identified by multivariate regression analysis. There were 208 newly diagnosed osteosarcomas during that period, and 144 cases met the criteria for analysis. The majority of the osteosarcoma cases (78.5%) were aged 0-24 years. The overall 5- and 10-year survival rates were 37.9% and 33.6%, respectively. Presence of metastasis at initial examination, delayed and against treatment co-operation, and axial skeletal location were identified as independent prognostic factors for survival, with hazard ratios of 4.3, 2.5 and 3.8, and 3.1, respectively. This osteosarcoma cohort had a relatively poor overall survival rate. The prognostic factors identified would play a critical role in modifying survival rates of osteosarcoma patients; as rapid disease recognition, a better treatment counselling, as well as improving of chemotherapeutic regimens were found to be important in improving the overall survival rate in Thailand. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Influence of the experience of operator and assistant on the survival rate of proximal ART restorations: two-year results.

    PubMed

    Kemoli, A M; van Amerongen, W E; Opinya, G

    2009-12-01

    The objective of the study was to determine the influence of the experience of the operator and the assistant on the survival rate of proximal ART- restorations after 2 years when placed using two methods of tooth-isolation and three glass ionomer cement-brands. A clinical intervention study. Each of 804 children aged 6-8 years received one proximal restoration in their primary molars. The restorations were placed by 'experienced/inexperienced' operators randomly paired with 'experienced/ inexperienced' assistants. The atraumatic restorative treatment (ART) approach was used with 3 brands of glass ionomer cements (GIC) and 2 tooth-isolation methods (rubber dam vs cotton rolls). Trained and calibrated evaluators evaluated the restorations, soon after placement and after 2 years. The data collected were analyzed using SPSS 14.0, to determine and relate the survival rate of the restorations to the operator and assistant with respect to the other factors such as the restorative material used and the isolation method applied. After 2 years, the survival rate of the restorations was 30.8%. In general, there were no statistical significant differences in the survival rate of the restorations made by the 'experienced' vs 'inexperienced' operators, but individually, the operator with more experience was associated with a significantly higher survival rate of the restorations. The experienced assistants were associated with significantly higher survival rates of the restorations. The most 'experienced' operator paired with any 'experienced' assistant and using rubber dam tooth-isolation method, was associated with a significantly higher survival rate of the restorations. The combination of the 'experienced' operator and assistant using rubber dam tooth-isolation method had the best chance of survival for proximal ART restorations, irrespective of the material-brand used.

  17. Reproductive effort accelerates actuarial senescence in wild birds: an experimental study.

    PubMed

    Boonekamp, Jelle J; Salomons, Martijn; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Dijkstra, Cor; Verhulst, Simon

    2014-05-01

    Optimality theories of ageing predict that the balance between reproductive effort and somatic maintenance determines the rate of ageing. Laboratory studies find that increased reproductive effort shortens lifespan, but through increased short-term mortality rather than ageing. In contrast, high fecundity in early life is associated with accelerated senescence in free-living vertebrates, but these studies are non-experimental. We performed lifelong brood size manipulation in free-living jackdaws. Actuarial senescence--the increase in mortality rate with age--was threefold higher in birds rearing enlarged- compared to reduced broods, confirming a key prediction of the optimality theory of ageing. Our findings contrast with the results of single-year brood size manipulation studies carried out in many species, in which there was no overall discernible manipulation effect on mortality. We suggest that our and previous findings are in agreement with predictions based on the reliability theory of ageing and propose further tests of this proposition.

  18. High survival and homing rate of hand-reared wild-strain mallards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lee, F.B.; Kruse, A.D.

    1973-01-01

    In the summer of 1970, 648 (329 males and 319 females) hand-reared wild-strain mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) were banded and released at the Arrowwood National Wildlife Refuge, Edmunds, North Dakota. The females were also marked with numbered nasal saddles. Liberation was by the gentle release method, and no special effort was made to isolate or condition the ducklings prior to release. Ducklings were placed in an enclosed pond area at 25 to 45 days of age. Altogether, 627 (97 percent) ducklings reached flight age and dispersed gradually into the wild. All had left the release area by 25 November. First-year band recovery reports indicated that 68 (11 percent) of the birds were shot in 15 states. Their migration pattern was similar to that for immature wild mallards banded in North Dakota in 1970.Eighty-nine (33 percent) of a possible 270 marked females returned to Arrowwood Refuge during 1971. When consideration is given to assumed normal natural mortality and crippling loss, an estimated minimum of 43 percent of the surviving females returned to the release area. Returning birds not observed would raise this figure even higher. This potential homing rate is considerably higher than rates reported for other studies using various strains of mallards. Numerous observations of nests and broods indicated that breeding behavior and nesting success were similar to those of wild mallards in the area. The success of this release is attributed to the inherent capability of hand-reared, wild-strain mallards to revert to their wild behavior, and to the high survival to flight age and first fall migration afforded by the gentle release in a sanctuary area. Indications are that releases of this type under the described conditions can be used to increase the breeding population of mallards in a local area.

  19. Has actuarial aging “slowed” over the past 250 years? A comparison of small-scale subsistence populations and European cohorts

    PubMed Central

    Gurven, Michael; Fenelon, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    G.C. Williams’ 1957 hypothesis famously argues that higher age-independent, or “extrinsic”, mortality should select for faster rates of senescence. Long-lived species should therefore show relatively few deaths from extrinsic causes such as predation and starvation. Theoretical explorations and empirical tests of Williams’ hypothesis have flourished in the past decade but it has not yet been tested empirically among humans. We test Williams’ hypothesis using mortality data from subsistence populations and from historical cohorts from Sweden and England/Wales, and examine whether rates of actuarial aging declined over the past two centuries. We employ three aging measures: mortality rate doubling time (MRDT), Ricklef’s ω, and the slope of mortality hazard from ages sixty to seventy, m’60–70, and model mortality using both Weibull and Gompertz-Makeham hazard models. We find that (1) actuarial aging in subsistence societies is similar to that of early Europe, (2) actuarial senescence has slowed in later European cohorts, (3) reductions in extrinsic mortality associate with slower actuarial aging in longitudinal samples, and (4) men senesce more rapidly than women, especially in later cohorts. To interpret these results, we attempt to bridge population-based evolutionary analysis with individual-level proximate mechanisms. PMID:19220451

  20. Survival rate of salmonella on cooked pig ear pet treats at refrigerated and ambient temperature storage.

    PubMed

    Taormina, Peter J

    2014-01-01

    Pet treats, including pig ears, have been implicated as vehicles of human salmonellosis, and Salmonella has been isolated on commercially produced pig ears. Therefore, behavior of the pathogen on this very low water activity (aw) pet treat is of interest. The survival of Salmonella serotypes Newport and Typhimurium DT104 was measured on natural (aw 0.256) and smoked (aw 0.306) pig ear pet treat products inoculated at ca. 6.5 log CFU per sample and stored at 4.4 or 22°C for 365 days. Surviving populations of Salmonella were enumerated periodically, and a modified Weibull model was used to fit the inactivation curves for log populations. After 14 days, the decline of Salmonella was significantly (P < 0.05) greater at 22°C than at 4.4°C. By 365 days of storage at 4.4°C, Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 declined by 2.19 log on smoked pig ears and 1.14 log on natural pig ears, while Salmonella Newport declined by 4.20 log on smoked pig ears and 2.08 log on natural pig ears. Populations of Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 on refrigerated natural pig ears rebounded between day 152 (3.21 log CFU per sample) and day 175 (4.79 log CFU per sample) and rose gradually for the duration of the study to 5.28 log CFU per sample. The model fits for survival rate of Salmonella on pig ears at 4.4°C show a rapid initial decline followed by a long tailing effect. Salmonella Typhimurium DT104 on natural pig ears at 4.4°C had the slowest rate of reduction. At 22°C Salmonella declined nonlinearly by >4.5 log for each combination of serotype and pig ear type at 22°C but remained detectable by enrichment. The model parameter for days to first decimal reduction of Salmonella on pig ears was two to three times higher at 4.4°C compared with 22°C, demonstrating that Salmonella slowly declines on very low aw refrigerated pet treats and more rapidly at room temperature. This information may be useful for pet treat safety assessments.

  1. Chloroquine Improves Survival and Hematopoietic Recovery After Lethal Low-Dose-Rate Radiation

    SciTech Connect

    Lim Yiting; Hedayati, Mohammad; Merchant, Akil A.; Zhang Yonggang; Yu, Hsiang-Hsuan M.; Kastan, Michael B.; Matsui, William; DeWeese, Theodore L.

    2012-11-01

    Purpose: We have previously shown that the antimalarial agent chloroquine can abrogate the lethal cellular effects of low-dose-rate (LDR) radiation in vitro, most likely by activating the ataxia-telangiectasia mutated (ATM) protein. Here, we demonstrate that chloroquine treatment also protects against lethal doses of LDR radiation in vivo. Methods and Materials: C57BL/6 mice were irradiated with a total of 12.8 Gy delivered at 9.4 cGy/hour. ATM null mice from the same background were used to determine the influence of ATM. Chloroquine was administered by two intraperitoneal injections of 59.4 {mu}g per 17 g of body weight, 24 hours and 4 hours before irradiation. Bone marrow cells isolated from tibia, fibula, and vertebral bones were transplanted into lethally irradiated CD45 congenic recipient mice by retroorbital injection. Chimerism was assessed by flow cytometry. In vitro methylcellulose colony-forming assay of whole bone marrow cells and fluorescence activated cell sorting analysis of lineage depleted cells were used to assess the effect of chloroquine on progenitor cells. Results: Mice pretreated with chloroquine before radiation exhibited a significantly higher survival rate than did mice treated with radiation alone (80% vs. 31%, p = 0.0026). Chloroquine administration before radiation did not affect the survival of ATM null mice (p = 0.86). Chloroquine also had a significant effect on the early engraftment of bone marrow cells from the irradiated donor mice 6 weeks after transplantation (4.2% vs. 0.4%, p = 0.015). Conclusion: Chloroquine administration before radiation had a significant effect on the survival of normal but not ATM null mice, strongly suggesting that the in vivo effect, like the in vitro effect, is also ATM dependent. Chloroquine improved the early engraftment of bone marrow cells from LDR-irradiated mice, presumably by protecting the progenitor cells from radiation injury. Chloroquine thus could serve as a very useful drug for protection

  2. Chloroquine improves survival and hematopoietic recovery following lethal low dose- rate radiation

    PubMed Central

    Lim, Yiting; Hedayati, Mohammad; Merchant, Akil A.; Zhang, Yonggang; Yu, Hsiang-Hsuan M; Kastan, Michael B.; Matsui, William; DeWeese, Theodore L.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose We have previously shown that the anti-malarial agent chloroquine can abrogate the lethal cellular effects of low dose-rate (LDR) radiation in vitro, most likely by activating the ataxia-telangiectasia mutated (ATM) protein. Here, we demonstrate that chloroquine treatment also protects against lethal doses of LDR radiation in vivo. Methods and Materials C57BL/6 mice were irradiated with total of 12.8 Gy delivered at 9.4 cGy/hr. ATM null mice from the same background were used to determine the influence of ATM. Chloroquine was administered by two intraperitoneal injections of 59.4 μg per 17 g of body weight, 24 hrs and 4 hrs before irradiation. Bone marrow cells isolated from tibia, fibula and vertebral bones were transplanted into lethally irradiated CD45 congenic recipient mice by retro orbital injection. Chimerism was assessed by flow cytometry. In vitro methyl cellulose colony forming assay of whole bone marrow cells as well as FACS analysis of lineage depleted cells was used to assess the effect of chloroquine on progenitor cells. Results Mice pretreated with chloroquine prior to radiation exhibited a significantly higher survival rate compared to mice treated with radiation alone (80 vs.31 percent, p=0.0026). Chloroquine administration prior to radiation did not impact the survival of ATM null mice (p=0.86). Chloroquine also had a significant effect on the early engraftment of bone marrow cells from the irradiated donor mice 6 weeks after the transplantation (4.2 percent vs. 0.4 percent, p=0.015). Conclusion Chloroquine administration prior to radiation had a significant effect on the survival of normal but not ATM null mice strongly suggesting that the in vivo effect like the in vitro effect is also ATM dependent. Chloroquine improved the early engraftment of bone marrow cells from LDR irradiated mice, presumably by protecting the progenitor cells from radiation injury. Chloroquine thus could serve as a very useful drug for protection against the

  3. Cognitive function, stress hormones, heart rate and nutritional status during simulated captivity in military survival training.

    PubMed

    Lieberman, Harris R; Farina, Emily K; Caldwell, John; Williams, Kelly W; Thompson, Lauren A; Niro, Philip J; Grohmann, Kyle A; McClung, James P

    2016-10-15

    Stress influences numerous psychological and physiological processes, and its effects have practical implications in a variety of professions and real-world activities. However, few studies have concurrently assessed multiple behavioral, hormonal, nutritional and heart-rate responses of humans to acute, severe stress. This investigation simultaneously assessed cognitive, affective, hormonal, and heart-rate responses induced by an intensely stressful real-world environment designed to simulate wartime captivity. Sixty males were evaluated during and immediately following participation in U.S. Army Survival, Evasion, Resistance, and Escape (SERE) school, three weeks of intense but standardized training for Soldiers at risk of capture. Simulated captivity and intense mock interrogations degraded grammatical reasoning (p<0.005), sustained-attention (p<0.001), working memory (p<0.05) and all aspects of mood assessed by the Profile of Mood States (POMS) questionnaire: Tension/Anxiety, Depression/Dejection, Anger/Hostility, Vigor/Activity, Fatigue/Inertia; Confusion/Bewilderment, and Total Mood Disturbance (p<0.001) It also elevated heart rate (p<0.001); increased serum and salivary cortisol and dehydroepiandrosterone-sulfate (DHEA-s) (p<0.01); elevated serum epinephrine, norepinephrine, and soluble transferrin receptors (sTfR) (p<0.01); increased salivary neuropeptide-Y (NPY) (p<0.001); and decreased serum prolactin and serum and salivary testosterone (p<0.001). Partial recovery was observed immediately after training, but stress-induced changes, particularly in body weight and several of the biomarkers, persisted. This study demonstrates that when individuals were exposed to realistic and controlled simulated captivity, cognition, mood, stress hormones, nutritional status and heart rate are simultaneously altered, and each of these subsequently recovers at different rates. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  4. Calculating the survival rate and estimated population density of gravid Aedes aegypti (Diptera, Culicidae) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

    PubMed

    Maciel-de-Freitas, Rafael; Eiras, Alvaro E; Lourenço-de-Oliveira, Ricardo

    2008-12-01

    Population size and daily survival rates of disease vectors are important determinants of vectorial capacity. A mark-release-recapture experiment was conducted in a dengue endemic urban neighborhood of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, to estimate population size, survival rate and vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti females using back-pack aspirators and gravid sticky traps (MosquiTRAP). Estimations of the gravid female population size were different when using data gathered from just the MosquiTRAP (3,505 individuals) or aspirator (1,470). However Ae. aegypti survival rates and longevity were similar irrespective of the method of capture. Up to 26.3% of released females would be able to survive for more than 10 days, the length of time of the extrinsic incubation period. Vectorial capacity value ranged between 0.01567 and 0.4215 and the basic reproductive number (R0) was estimated to be between 0.0695 and 1.88.

  5. Five- and 10-Year Cause-Specific Survival Rates in Carcinoma of the Minor Salivary Gland.

    PubMed

    Baddour, H Michael; Fedewa, Stacey A; Chen, Amy Y

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies of prognostic factors of carcinoma of the minor salivary gland (MSG) have been limited to single-institution studies and small case series. Thus, limited data are available to guide the head and neck oncologist in counseling patients on the prognosis and management of these malignant neoplasms. To examine 5- and 10-year cause-specific survival (CSS) rates of MSG carcinomas across all histologic subtypes and head and neck tumor subsites. Retrospective, population-based study using National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data from January 1, 1988, through December 31, 2009. The study included 5334 patients diagnosed as having MSG carcinoma and registered in the SEER database. Patients without follow-up, diagnostic confirmation, and/or race designation were excluded from the analysis (131 [2.4%]). Final follow-up was completed on December 31, 2009, and data were analyzed from August 5, 2013, to July 1, 2014. Five- and 10-year CSS rates for US patients with MSG carcinoma. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. Among the 5334 patients with MSG carcinoma included, the most common histologic subtypes included mucoepidermoid carcinoma (1568 [29.4%]), adenoid cystic carcinoma (1228 [23.0%]), and adenocarcinoma (1313 [24.6%]). The most frequent sites of primary tumor were the oral cavity (3132 [58.7%]) and pharynx (1130 [21.2%]). Five-year CSS rate was significantly worse for MSG malignant neoplasms located in the larynx (HR, 2.42; 95% CI, 1.67-3.50) and nasal cavity and/or paranasal sinus (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.29-2.32). Being older than 75 years was associated with a significantly worse 5-year CSS rate (HR, 2.88; 95% CI, 2.05-4.06). Compared with no surgery, local tumor destruction (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.30-0.64), partial surgery (HR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.23-0.47), and total surgery (HR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.41-0.74) were each found to be a significant positive prognostic

  6. Trends in older driver crash involvement rates and survivability in the United States: an update.

    PubMed

    Cicchino, Jessica B; McCartt, Anne T

    2014-11-01

    Previous research has shown that fatal crash involvement rates per licensed driver aged 70 and older declined significantly more per year in the United States than rates for middle-aged drivers aged 35-54 during 1997-2008, and per vehicle mile traveled from 1995-1996 to 2001-2002. Analyses of police-reported crash data during 1997-2005 indicated that the greater declines for older drivers were due to decreases in crash involvement and in the risk of dying in the crashes that occurred. The current study examined if trends in crash rates, crash involvements, and survivability persisted into more recent years. Trends for drivers 70 and older were compared with trends for drivers aged 35-54 for U.S. national fatal passenger vehicle crash involvements per 100,000 licensed drivers during 1997-2012 and for U.S. national fatal passenger vehicle crash involvements per vehicle miles traveled in 1995-1996, 2001-2002, and 2008. Using police-reported crash data during 1997-2008 from 20 U.S. states, trends in involvement rates in non-fatal crashes of various severities per 100,000 licensed drivers and changes in the odds of death and the odds of death or serious injury in a crash were compared between older and middle-aged drivers. During 2007-2012, declines in national fatal crash involvement rates per licensed driver were similar for drivers 70 and older and middle-aged drivers (18 percent each). However, when considering the entire study period, fatal crash involvement rates continued to reflect a substantially larger decline for drivers 70 and older than for middle-aged drivers (42 vs. 30 percent per licensed driver during 1997-2012, 39 vs. 26 percent per vehicle mile traveled from 1995-2006 to 2008). When analyses of police-reported crash data were extended through 2008, non-fatal injury crash involvement rates per licensed driver declined more for older than for middle-aged drivers (39 vs. 30 percent), and unlike in prior research, average annual declines were

  7. Sex offender treatment outcome, actuarial risk, and the aging sex offender in Canadian corrections: a long-term follow-up.

    PubMed

    Olver, Mark E; Nicholaichuk, Terry P; Gu, Deqiang; Wong, Stephen C P

    2013-08-01

    The present study is an examination of sex offender treatment outcome in a large national cohort of Canadian Federally incarcerated sex offenders followed up an average of 11.7 years postrelease. A brief actuarial risk scale (BARS), which predicted sexual and violent recidivism, was created for the purposes of the present study to control for risk-related differences between treated and untreated offenders. In total, 732 offenders were identified as having completed (n = 625) or not attended (n = 107) a sex offender treatment program and for whom sufficient information was available to complete the scale. Controlling for risk and individual differences in follow-up time using Cox regression survival analyses and an 8-year fixed follow-up period, treated sex offenders demonstrated significantly lower rates of violent, but not sexual, recidivism. When the treated and untreated groups were stratified by risk level, significant differences were observed only among moderate or high risk offenders. Some significant group differences also emerged on indicators of recidivism severity, with treated offenders demonstrating slower times to sexual reoffense and lower scores on a quantified metric of sexual and violent recidivism severity after controlling for risk. Differences in recidivism base rates between treated and untreated offenders were also larger in magnitude for younger offenders (i.e., under age 50 at release), than for older offenders; however, interactions between age and treatment were not found. The findings are consistent with the risk principle and have possible implications regarding the dynamic nature of sexual violence risk.

  8. Actuarial risk assessment models: a review of critical issues related to violence and sex-offender recidivism assessments.

    PubMed

    Sreenivasan, S; Kirkish, P; Garrick, T; Weinberger, L E; Phenix, A

    2000-01-01

    Risk assessment in the area of identification of violence has been dichotomized by several prominent researchers as the "clinical approach" versus the "actuarial method". The proponents of the actuarial approach argue for actuarially derived decisions to replace existing clinical practice. The actuarial method requires no clinical input, just a translation of the relevant material from the records to calculate the risk score. A risk appraisal approach based upon a sole actuarial method raises several questions: those of public safety, peer-accepted standards of practice, liability issues, and concordance with evidence-based medicine practice. We conclude that the sole actuarial approach fails to satisfy these critical issues.

  9. 38 CFR 3.10 - Dependency and indemnity compensation rate for a surviving spouse.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    .... (1) Increase for children. If the surviving spouse has one or more children under the age of 18 of... indemnity compensation paid monthly to a surviving spouse with one or more children below the age of 18... after the month in which all children of the surviving spouse have attained the age of 18. (f)...

  10. 38 CFR 3.10 - Dependency and indemnity compensation rate for a surviving spouse.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    .... (1) Increase for children. If the surviving spouse has one or more children under the age of 18 of... indemnity compensation paid monthly to a surviving spouse with one or more children below the age of 18... after the month in which all children of the surviving spouse have attained the age of 18. (f)...

  11. 38 CFR 3.24 - Improved pension rates-Surviving children.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ...-Surviving children. 3.24 Section 3.24 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... rates—Surviving children. (a) General. The provisions of this section apply to children of a deceased.... Children in custody of a surviving spouse who has basic eligibility to receive improved pension do not...

  12. 38 CFR 3.24 - Improved pension rates-Surviving children.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ...-Surviving children. 3.24 Section 3.24 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... rates—Surviving children. (a) General. The provisions of this section apply to children of a deceased.... Children in custody of a surviving spouse who has basic eligibility to receive improved pension do not...

  13. 38 CFR 3.24 - Improved pension rates-Surviving children.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ...-Surviving children. 3.24 Section 3.24 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... rates—Surviving children. (a) General. The provisions of this section apply to children of a deceased.... Children in custody of a surviving spouse who has basic eligibility to receive improved pension do not...

  14. Actual and actuarial probabilities of competing risks: apples and lemons.

    PubMed

    Grunkemeier, Gary L; Jin, Ruyun; Eijkemans, Marinus J C; Takkenberg, Johanna J M

    2007-05-01

    The probability of a type of failure that is not inevitable, but can be precluded by other events such as death, is given by the cumulative incidence function. In cardiac research articles, it has become known as the actual probability, in contrast to the actuarial methods of estimation, usually implemented by the Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimate. Unlike cumulative incidence, KM attempts to predict what the latent failure probability would be if death were eliminated. To do this, the KM method assumes that the risk of dying and the risk of failure are independent. But this assumption is not true for many cardiac applications in which the risks of failure and death are negatively correlated (ie, patients with a higher risk of dying have a lower risk of failure, and patients with a lower risk of death have a higher risk of failure, which is a condition called informative censoring). Recent editorials in two cardiac journals have promoted the use of the KM method (actuarial estimate) for competing risk events (specifically for heart valve performance) and criticized the use of the cumulative incidence (actual) estimates. This report has two aims: to explain the difference between these two estimates and to show why the KM is generally not appropriate. In the process we will rely on alternative representations of the KM estimator (using redistribution to the right and inverse probability weighting) to explain the difference between the two estimates and to show how it may be possible to adjust KM to overcome the informative censoring.

  15. An actuarial approach to retrofit savings in buildings

    SciTech Connect

    Subbarao, Krishnappa; Etingov, Pavel V.; Reddy, T. A.

    2014-01-01

    An actuarial method has been developed for determining energy savings from retrofits from energy use data for a number of buildings. This method should be contrasted with the traditional method of using pre- and post-retrofit data on the same building. This method supports the U.S. Department of Energy Building Performance Database of real building performance data and related tools that enable engineering and financial practitioners to evaluate retrofits. The actuarial approach derives, from the database, probability density functions (PDFs) for energy savings from retrofits by creating peer groups for the user’s pre post buildings. From the energy use distribution of the two groups, the savings PDF is derived. This provides the basis for engineering analysis as well as financial risk analysis leading to investment decisions. Several technical issues are addressed: The savings PDF is obtained from the pre- and post-PDF through a convolution. Smoothing using kernel density estimation is applied to make the PDF more realistic. The low data density problem can be mitigated through a neighborhood methodology. Correlations between pre and post buildings are addressed to improve the savings PDF. Sample size effects are addressed through the Kolmogorov--Smirnov tests and quantile-quantile plots.

  16. Betaxolol improves the survival rate and changes natriuretic peptide expression in rats with heart failure.

    PubMed

    Watanabe, Kenichi; Juan, Wen; Narasimman, Gurusamy; Ma, Meilei; Inoue, Mikio; Saito, Yuki; Wahed, Mir I I; Nakazawa, Mikio; Hasegawa, Go; Naito, Makoto; Tachikawa, Hitoshi; Tanabe, Naohito; Kodama, Makoto; Aizawa, Yoshifusa; Yamamoto, Tadashi; Yamaguchi, Kenichi; Takahashi, Toshihiro

    2003-01-01

    The cardioprotective effects of betaxolol were studied in a rat model with heart failure induced by autoimmune myocarditis. Twenty-eight days after immunization, Lewis rats were divided into four groups; 0.1 mg/kg betaxolol per day (group 0.1), 1.0 mg/kg betaxolol per day (group 1), 10 mg/kg betaxolol per day (group 10), and vehicle (0.5% methylcellulose, group V) (all groups, n = 13). After oral administration for 1 month, the heart weight, the mRNA expression of atrial natriuretic peptide and brain natriuretic peptide in the left ventricle, the plasma atrial natriuretic peptide concentration, the mean blood pressure, the heart rate, the central venous pressure, the peak left ventricular pressure, the left ventricular end-diastolic pressure and its first derivative +/-dP/dt, and the area of myocardial fibrosis were measured. Betaxolol reduced the heart rate, the levels of atrial natriuretic peptide and brain natriuretic peptide mRNA expression and the atrial natriuretic peptide concentration [group N (normal rats), 367 +/- 4 beats/min, 100%, 100% and 78 +/- 7 pg/ml, respectively; group V, 391 +/- 9 beats/min, 761 +/- 68% versus group N, 317 +/- 42% versus group N and 4374 +/- 312 pg/ml, respectively; group 0.1, 387 +/- 10 beats/min, 621 +/- 78%, 288 +/- 41% and 2875 +/- 331 pg/ml, respectively; group 1, 323 +/- 9 beats/min, 442 +/- 84%, 148 +/- 12% and 884 +/- 51 pg/ml, respectively; and group 10, 312 +/- 8 beats/min, 97 +/- 18%, 92 + 9% and 453 +/- 53 pg/ml, respectively], and increased survival (group V, 62%; group 0.1, 69%; groups N, 1 and 10, 100%). Betaxolol did not significantly alter the heart weight, the hemodynamic parameters or the area of fibrosis. These observations suggest that betaxolol may improve the survival rate by reducing sudden death and changing the atrial natriuretic peptide and brain natriuretic peptide mRNA expression in patients with heart failure.

  17. 'Nature or nurture': survival rate, oviposition interval, and possible gonotrophic discordance among South East Asian anophelines.

    PubMed

    Derek Charlwood, J; Nenhep, Somalay; Sovannaroth, Siv; Morgan, John C; Hemingway, Janet; Chitnis, Nakul; Briët, Olivier J T

    2016-07-12

    Mosquito survival, oviposition interval and gonotrophic concordance are important determinants of vectorial capacity. These may vary between species or within a single species depending on the environment. They may be estimated by examination of the ovaries of host-seeking mosquitoes. Landing collections, Furvela tent-trap and CDC light-trap collections were undertaken sequentially in four locations in Cambodia between February 2012 and December 2013 and samples from the collected mosquitoes were dissected to determine parity, sac stage (indicative of time spent prior to returning to feed) and egg stage. A total of 27,876 Anopheles from 15 species or species groups were collected in the four locations and 2883 specimens were dissected. Both the density and predominant species collected varied according to location and trapping method. Five species were dissected in sufficient numbers to allow comparisons between locations. Estimated oviposition interval differed markedly between species but less within species among different locations. Anopheles aconitus had the shortest cycle, which was 3.17 days (95 % CI 3-3.64), and Anopheles barbirostris had the longest cycle, which took four days (95 % CI 3.29-4). Anopheles minimus had a higher sac rate in weeks leading up to a full moon but there was apparently little effect of moon phase on Anopheles dirus. Despite the fact that many of the species occurred at very low densities, there was no evidence of gonotrophic dissociation in any of them, even during sustained hot, dry periods. The principal Cambodian malaria vector, An. dirus, was only common in one location where it was collected in miniature light-traps inside houses. It did not appear to have an exceptional survival rate (as judged by the low average parous rate) or oviposition cycle. Differences in the oviposition interval were more pronounced among species within locations than within species among ecologically diverse locations. A nationwide survey using CDC

  18. Oral cancer incidence and survival rates in the Republic of Ireland, 1994-2009.

    PubMed

    Ali, Hala; Sinnott, Sarah-Jo; Corcoran, Paul; Deady, Sandra; Sharp, Linda; Kabir, Zubair

    2016-12-20

    Oral cancer is a significant public health problem world-wide and exerts high economic, social, psychological, and physical burdens on patients, their families, and on their primary care providers. We set out to describe the changing trends in incidence and survival rates of oral cancer in Ireland between 1994 and 2009. National data on incident oral cancers [ICD 10 codes C01-C06] were obtained from the National Cancer Registry Ireland from 1994 to 2009. We estimated annual percentage change (APC) in oral cancer incidence during 1994-2009 using joinpoint regression software (version 4.2.0.2). The lifetime risk of oral cancer to age 79 was estimated using Irish incidence and population data from 2007 to 2009. Survival rates were also examined using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models to explore the influence of several demographic/lifestyle covariates with follow-up to end 2012. Data were obtained on 2,147 oral cancer incident cases. Men accounted for two-thirds of oral cancer cases (n = 1,430). Annual rates in men decreased significantly during 1994-2001 (APC = -4.8 %, 95 % CI: -8.7 to -0.7) and then increased moderately (APC = 2.3 %, 95 % CI: -0.9 to 5.6). In contrast, annual incidence increased significantly in women throughout the study period (APC = 3.2 %, 95 % CI: 1.9 to 4.6). There was an elevated risk of death among oral cancer patients who were: older than 60 years of age; smokers; unemployed or retired; those living in the most deprived areas; and those whose tumour was sited in the base of the tongue. Being married and diagnosed in more recent years were associated with reduced risk of death. Oral cancer increased significantly in both sexes between 1999 and 2009 in Ireland. Our analyses demonstrate the influence of measured factors such as smoking, time of diagnosis and age on observed trends. Unmeasured factors such as alcohol use, HPV and dietary factors may also be contributing to increased trends. Several of

  19. Estimating the effect of hunting on annual survival rates of adult mallards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burnham, Kenneth P.; White, Gary C.; Anderson, David R.

    1984-01-01

    Management programs for waterfowl populations include rationale for, and establishment of, hunting regulations. These programs rest partially on the results of scientific studies on the effect of harvest rates on annual survival rates. The evidence of this relationship has changed markedly since the mid-1970's, and it is not widely believed that a largely compensatory relationship exists between hunting mortality and other forms of mortality for the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos). This paper employs a general probabilistic model formulated to include a parameter (b) representing a continuum between complete compensation (b=0) and total additivity (b=1). Maximum likelihood estimates of this parameter were computer for 47 data sets of adult mallards banded throughout North American before hunting commenced. We found additional evidence of a highly compensatory mortality process for adult male mallards, while the evidence for adults female mallards remains inconclusive. Effective harvest, land acquisition, and land management programs depend upon additional information on the chronology and mechanisms underlying a compensatory mortality process.

  20. Effects of pond salinization on survival rate of amphibian hosts infected with the chytrid fungus.

    PubMed

    Stockwell, Michelle Pirrie; Storrie, Lachlan James; Pollard, Carla Jean; Clulow, John; Mahony, Michael Joseph

    2015-04-01

    The chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis has been implicated in the decline and extinction of amphibian populations worldwide, but management options are limited. Recent studies show that sodium chloride (NaCl) has fungicidal properties that reduce the mortality rates of infected hosts in captivity. We investigated whether similar results can be obtained by adding salt to water bodies in the field. We increased the salinity of 8 water bodies to 2 or 4 ppt and left an additional 4 water bodies with close to 0 ppt and monitored salinity for 18 months. Captively bred tadpoles of green and golden bell frog (Litoria aurea) were released into each water body and their development, levels of B. dendrobatidis infection, and survival were monitored at 1, 4, and 12 months. The effect of salt on the abundance of nontarget organisms was also investigated in before and after style analyses. Salinities remained constant over time with little intervention. Hosts in water bodies with 4 ppt salt had a significantly lower prevalence of chytrid infection and higher survival, following metamorphosis, than hosts in 0 ppt salt. Tadpoles in the 4 ppt group were smaller in length after 1 month in the release site than those in the 0 and 2 ppt groups, but after metamorphosis body size in all water bodies was similar . In water bodies with 4 ppt salt, the abundance of dwarf tree frogs (Litoria fallax), dragonfly larvae, and damselfly larvae was lower than in water bodies with 0 and 2 ppt salt, which could have knock-on effects for community structure. Based on our results, salt may be an effective field-based B. dendrobatidis mitigation tool for lentic amphibians that could contribute to the conservation of numerous susceptible species. However, as in all conservation efforts, these benefits need to be weighed against negative effects on both target and nontarget organisms. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  1. Abundance and Survival Rates of the Hawai’i Island Associated Spinner Dolphin (Stenella longirostris) Stock

    PubMed Central

    Tyne, Julian A.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Johnston, David W.; Bejder, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Reliable population estimates are critical to implement effective management strategies. The Hawai’i Island spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) is a genetically distinct stock that displays a rigid daily behavioural pattern, foraging offshore at night and resting in sheltered bays during the day. Consequently, they are exposed to frequent human interactions and disturbance. We estimated population parameters of this spinner dolphin stock using a systematic sampling design and capture–recapture models. From September 2010 to August 2011, boat-based photo-identification surveys were undertaken monthly over 132 days (>1,150 hours of effort; >100,000 dorsal fin images) in the four main resting bays along the Kona Coast, Hawai’i Island. All images were graded according to photographic quality and distinctiveness. Over 32,000 images were included in the analyses, from which 607 distinctive individuals were catalogued and 214 were highly distinctive. Two independent estimates of the proportion of highly distinctive individuals in the population were not significantly different (p = 0.68). Individual heterogeneity and time variation in capture probabilities were strongly indicated for these data; therefore capture–recapture models allowing for these variations were used. The estimated annual apparent survival rate (product of true survival and permanent emigration) was 0.97 SE±0.05. Open and closed capture–recapture models for the highly distinctive individuals photographed at least once each month produced similar abundance estimates. An estimate of 221±4.3 SE highly distinctive spinner dolphins, resulted in a total abundance of 631±60.1 SE, (95% CI 524–761) spinner dolphins in the Hawai’i Island stock, which is lower than previous estimates. When this abundance estimate is considered alongside the rigid daily behavioural pattern, genetic distinctiveness, and the ease of human access to spinner dolphins in their preferred resting habitats, this

  2. Abundance and survival rates of the Hawai'i Island associated spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) stock.

    PubMed

    Tyne, Julian A; Pollock, Kenneth H; Johnston, David W; Bejder, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Reliable population estimates are critical to implement effective management strategies. The Hawai'i Island spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) is a genetically distinct stock that displays a rigid daily behavioural pattern, foraging offshore at night and resting in sheltered bays during the day. Consequently, they are exposed to frequent human interactions and disturbance. We estimated population parameters of this spinner dolphin stock using a systematic sampling design and capture-recapture models. From September 2010 to August 2011, boat-based photo-identification surveys were undertaken monthly over 132 days (>1,150 hours of effort; >100,000 dorsal fin images) in the four main resting bays along the Kona Coast, Hawai'i Island. All images were graded according to photographic quality and distinctiveness. Over 32,000 images were included in the analyses, from which 607 distinctive individuals were catalogued and 214 were highly distinctive. Two independent estimates of the proportion of highly distinctive individuals in the population were not significantly different (p = 0.68). Individual heterogeneity and time variation in capture probabilities were strongly indicated for these data; therefore capture-recapture models allowing for these variations were used. The estimated annual apparent survival rate (product of true survival and permanent emigration) was 0.97 SE ± 0.05. Open and closed capture-recapture models for the highly distinctive individuals photographed at least once each month produced similar abundance estimates. An estimate of 221 ± 4.3 SE highly distinctive spinner dolphins, resulted in a total abundance of 631 ± 60.1 SE, (95% CI 524-761) spinner dolphins in the Hawai'i Island stock, which is lower than previous estimates. When this abundance estimate is considered alongside the rigid daily behavioural pattern, genetic distinctiveness, and the ease of human access to spinner dolphins in their preferred resting habitats, this Hawai'i Island

  3. Daily nest survival rates of Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus): assessing local- and landscape-scale drivers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stanley, Thomas R.; Cameron Aldridge,; Joanne Saher,; Theresa Childers,

    2015-01-01

    The Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of conservation concern and is a candidate for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act because of substantial declines in populations from historic levels. It is thought that loss, fragmentation, and deterioration of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitat have contributed to the decline and isolation of this species into seven geographically distinct subpopulations. Nest survival is known to be a primary driver of demography of Greater Sage-Grouse (C. urophasianus), but no unbiased estimates of daily nest survival rates (hereafter nest survival) exist for Gunnison Sage-Grouse or published studies identifying factors that influence nest survival. We estimated nest survival of Gunnison Sage-Grouse for the western portion of Colorado's Gunnison Basin subpopulation, and assessed the effects and relative importance of local- and landscape-scale habitat characteristics on nest survival. Our top performing model was one that allowed variation in nest survival among areas, suggesting a larger landscape-area effect. Overall nest success during a 38-day nesting period (egg-laying plus incubation) was 50% (daily survival rate; SE  =  0.982 [0.003]), which is higher than previous estimates for Gunnison Sage-Grouse and generally higher than published for the closely related Greater Sage-Grouse. We did not find strong evidence that local-scale habitat variables were better predictors of nest survival than landscape-scale predictors, nor did we find strong evidence that any of the habitat variables we measured were good predictors of nest survival. Nest success of Gunnison Sage-Grouse in the western portion of the Gunnison Basin was higher than previously believed.

  4. Risk of violence by psychiatric patients: beyond the "actuarial versus clinical" assessment debate.

    PubMed

    Buchanan, Alec

    2008-02-01

    Recently adopted statistical approaches improve researchers' ability to describe what is, and what is not, possible in the prediction of violence by psychiatric patients. At the base rates of violence routinely encountered in outpatient settings, current assessment methods would require hospital admission of large numbers of patients who are potential offenders in order to prevent the actual offending of a few. Suggestions that substantially greater accuracy is possible for short-term predictions, for particular symptom clusters, and for particular offenses have yet to be tested and confirmed. Further research may improve this state of affairs, for instance, by concentrating on particular patient groups. There are reasons to suspect that any improvement will be limited. Clinical practice, however, is likely to continue to require the assessment of a patient's potential for acting violently. Future research should aid such assessments by clarifying the mechanisms by which risk factors correlate with violence and by establishing the clinical usefulness of actuarial scales.

  5. Is More Better? Combining Actuarial Risk Scales to Predict Recidivism among Adult Sex Offenders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seto, Michael C.

    2005-01-01

    The present study was conducted to determine whether combining the results of multiple actuarial risk scales increases accuracy in predicting sex offender recidivism. Multiple methods of combining 4 validated actuarial risk scales--the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, the Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual…

  6. A Comparison of Logistic Regression, Neural Networks, and Classification Trees Predicting Success of Actuarial Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schumacher, Phyllis; Olinsky, Alan; Quinn, John; Smith, Richard

    2010-01-01

    The authors extended previous research by 2 of the authors who conducted a study designed to predict the successful completion of students enrolled in an actuarial program. They used logistic regression to determine the probability of an actuarial student graduating in the major or dropping out. They compared the results of this study with those…

  7. An analysis of possible applications of fuzzy set theory to the actuarial credibility theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ostaszewski, Krzysztof; Karwowski, Waldemar

    1992-01-01

    In this work, we review the basic concepts of actuarial credibility theory from the point of view of introducing applications of the fuzzy set-theoretic method. We show how the concept of actuarial credibility can be modeled through the fuzzy set membership functions and how fuzzy set methods, especially fuzzy pattern recognition, can provide an alternative tool for estimating credibility.

  8. Risk Assessment in Child Protective Services: Consensus and Actuarial Model Reliability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baird, Christopher; Wagner, Dennis; Healy, Theresa; Johnson, Kristen

    1999-01-01

    Compared reliability of three widely used child protective service risk-assessment models (one actuarial, two consensus based). Found that, although no system approached 100% interrater reliability, raters employing the actuarial model made consistent estimates of risk for a high percentage of cases they assessed. Interrater reliability for the…

  9. Criminal Behavior as a Function of Clinical and Actuarial Variables in a Sexual Offender Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hall, Gordon C. Nagayama

    1988-01-01

    Investigated ability of clinical and actuarial variables to predict criminal behavior of 342 sexual offenders previously studied in 1987. Results suggested linear combination of actuarial variables was significantly predictive of sexual reoffenses against adults and of nonsexual reoffending. Clinical judgment was not significantly predictive of…

  10. 76 FR 17762 - Regulations Governing the Performance of Actuarial Services Under the Employee Retirement Income...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-03-31

    ... enrolled actuary who wishes to return to active status from inactive status that depends on how long the... inactive status to demonstrate their return to active practice with more recent experience. It can be... build up, or return to, an active independent practice. For such actuaries, the Joint Board...

  11. A Comparison of Logistic Regression, Neural Networks, and Classification Trees Predicting Success of Actuarial Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schumacher, Phyllis; Olinsky, Alan; Quinn, John; Smith, Richard

    2010-01-01

    The authors extended previous research by 2 of the authors who conducted a study designed to predict the successful completion of students enrolled in an actuarial program. They used logistic regression to determine the probability of an actuarial student graduating in the major or dropping out. They compared the results of this study with those…

  12. The Impact of Urethral Risk Factors on Transcorporeal Artificial Urinary Sphincter Erosion Rates and Device Survival.

    PubMed

    Mock, Stephen; Dmochowski, Roger R; Brown, Elizabeth T; Reynolds, W Stuart; Kaufman, Melissa R; Milam, Douglas F

    2015-12-01

    We report the impact of urethral risk factors on erosion rates and device survival outcomes after transcorporeal artificial urinary sphincter placement. We performed a retrospective analysis of all transcorporeal artificial urinary sphincters placed at a single institution between January 2000 and May 2014. We assessed patient demographic, comorbid diseases and surgical characteristics for risk factors considered poor for device survival. Risk factors were compared to postoperative complications requiring explantation, including cuff erosion, infection and device revision. A total of 37 transcorporeal artificial urinary sphincters were placed in 35 men. Placement was performed as a primary procedure in 21 of 37 cases (56.8%) and as salvage in the remainder. In this transcorporeal population there were 7 explantations (18.9%) due to erosion in 4 cases, cuff downsizing in 2 and infection in 1. Median followup from implantation to last followup was 8.5 months (range 0.9 to 63). Median time from artificial urinary sphincter placement to explantation was 17.3 months (range 0.9 to 63) and time specifically to transcorporeal erosion was 7.4 months (range 0.9 to 26). On univariate analysis no parameters were associated with sphincter cuff erosion but a history of an inflatable penile prosthesis was associated with a higher device explantation rate (60% vs 12.5%, p=0.04). No associations were revealed on multivariate logistic analysis. All 4 cuff erosion cases demonstrated greater than 2 urethral risk factors, including prior radiation therapy in all. The probability of cuff erosion in patients with 2 or more urethral risk factors was 1.65 times the probability of erosion in those with 0 or 1 urethral risk factor (95% CI 1.3, 2.2). The proportion of patients free of erosion at 35 months was 100% in those with 0 or 1 urethral risk factor and 64% in those with 2 or more risk factors (log rank test p=0.00). Similarly the proportion of patients free of explantation at 35 months

  13. Changes in the management and survival rates of patients with oral cancer: a 30-year single-institution study

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Objectives The aim of the present study was to evaluate changes in the management and 5-year survival rates of patients with oral cancer in our department over a 30-year period. Materials and Methods We investigated the patient distributions, treatment methods, method of neck dissection according to cancer stage, and 5-year survival rates for 700 oral cancer patients over the periods of 1982–1996 (256 patients), 1999–2006 (248 patients), and 2007–2011 (196 patients). Results Stage IV patients were the largest group in all of the time periods evaluated. Although surgery and radiotherapy were the most common methods in all periods (over 50%), the prevalence of patients who underwent concomitant chemoradiotherapy increased from 7.0% to 16.2%. The use of radical neck dissection decreased from 43.0% to 5.3%, while conservative surgical methods increased from 24.1% to 76.3%. Lastly, the overall 5-year survival rate increased from 31.6% to 63.5% during the study period. Conclusion Although the 5-year survival rate reached the same level as that of other developed countries during the course of our study, most patients continue to come to the hospital with stage IV disease. In order to increase the 5-year survival rate of oral carcinoma, it may be necessary to improve public education and social efforts relevant to early diagnosis. PMID:26904492

  14. Retrospective study of pterygoid implants in the atrophic posterior maxilla: implant and prosthesis survival rates up to 3 years.

    PubMed

    Curi, Marcos Martins; Cardoso, Camila Lopes; Ribeiro, Karina de Cássia Braga

    2015-01-01

    Few reports have evaluated cumulative survival rates of implants placed in the pterygoid region in the medium term. The objective of this study was to evaluate success rates of pterygoid implants and prostheses in patients treated in the atrophic posterior maxilla. A retrospective study was performed of patients with an atrophic posterior maxilla rehabilitated with pterygoid implants between 1999 and 2010 and followed for at least 36 months after implant loading. Two outcome variables were considered: implant success and prosthesis success. The following predictor variables were recorded: sex, age, implant placement angulation, number and size of implants, prosthetic rehabilitation, bone loss, date of prosthesis delivery, and date of last follow-up. A statistical model was used to estimate the survival rates and associated confidence intervals. Data were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test to compare survival curves. A total of 238 titanium implants (172 anterior and 66 pterygoid) were placed in 56 patients. The 3-year overall pterygoid implant survival rate was 99%. The 3-year overall prosthesis survival rate was 97.7%. The mean bone loss around pterygoid implants after 3 years of loading was 1.21 mm (range, 0.31 to 1.75). All patients were wearing the prostheses at the most recent follow-up examination. Placement of implants in the pterygoid region is a viable alternative treatment modality for rehabilitation of patients with an atrophic posterior maxilla.

  15. Differences in vitamin D status may account for unexplained disparities in cancer survival rates between African and white Americans.

    PubMed

    Grant, William B; Peiris, Alan N

    2012-04-01

    Considerable disparities in cancer survival rates exist between African Americans (AAs) and white Americans (WAs). Various factors such as differences in socioeconomic status (SES), cancer stage at time of diagnosis, and treatment-which this analysis considers primary explanatory factors-have accounted for many of these differences. An additional factor not usually considered is vitamin D. Previous studies have inversely correlated higher solar ultraviolet-B (UVB) doses and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations with incidence and/or mortality rates for about 20 types of cancer and improved survival rates for eight types of cancer. Because of darker skin pigmentation, AAs have 40% lower serum 25(OH)D concentrations than WAs. This study reviews the literature on disparities in cancer survival between AAs and WAs. The journal literature indicates that there are disparities for 13 types of cancer after consideration of SES, stage at diagnosis and treatment: bladder, breast, colon, endometrial, lung, ovarian, pancreatic, prostate, rectal, testicular, and vaginal cancer; Hodgkin lymphoma and melanoma. Solar UVB doses and/or serum 25(OH)D concentrations have been reported inversely correlated with incidence and/or mortality rates for all of these cancers. This finding suggests that future studies should consider serum 25(OH)D concentrations in addressing cancer survival disparities through both measurements of serum 25(OH)D concentrations and increasing serum 25(OH)D concentrations of those diagnosed with cancer, leading to improved survival rates and reduced disparities.

  16. Different actuarial risk measures produce different risk rankings for sexual offenders.

    PubMed

    Barbaree, Howard E; Langton, Calvin M; Peacock, Edward J

    2006-10-01

    Percentile ranks were computed for N=262 sex offenders using each of 5 actuarial risk instruments commonly used with adult sex offenders (RRASOR, Static-99, VRAG, SORAG, and MnSOST-R). Mean differences between percentile ranks obtained by different actuarial measures were found to vary inversely with the correlation between the actuarial scores. Following studies of factor analyses of actuarial items, we argue that the discrepancies among actuarial instruments can be substantially accounted for by the way in which the factor Antisocial Behavior and various factors reflecting sexual deviance are represented among the items contained in each instrument. In the discussion, we provide guidance to clinicians in resolving discrepancies between instruments and we discuss implications for future developments in sex offender risk assessment.

  17. Survival Rates of Juvenile Salmonids Passing Through the Bonneville Dam and Spillway in 2008

    SciTech Connect

    Ploskey, Gene R.; Weiland, Mark A.; Faber, Derrek M.; Deng, Zhiqun; Johnson, Gary E.; Hughes, James S.; Zimmerman, Shon A.; Monter, Tyrell J.; Cushing, Aaron W.; Wilberding, Matthew C.; Durham, Robin E.; Townsend, R. L.; Skalski, J. R.; Buchanan, Rebecca A.; Kim, Jina; Fischer, Eric S.; Meyer, Matthew M.; McComas, Roy L.; Everett, Jason

    2009-12-28

    This report describes a 2008 acoustic telemetry survival study conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the Portland District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The study estimated the survival of juvenile Chinook salmon and steelhead passing Bonneville Dam (BON) and its spillway. Of particular interest was the relative survival of smolts detected passing through end spill bays 1-3 and 16-18, which had deep flow deflectors immediately downstream of spill gates, versus survival of smolts passing middle spill bays 4-15, which had shallow flow deflectors.

  18. Analysis of Survival Rates Following Primary Surgery of 178 Consecutive Patients with Oral Cancer in a Large District General Hospital.

    PubMed

    Stathopoulos, Panagiotis; Smith, William P

    2017-06-01

    The aim of this study is to present the survival rates in patients treated for oral cancer with primary surgery in a large district general hospital. We discuss the influence of the most significant prognostic factors on survival and compare our results with larger centres specializing in the management of oral cancer. All patients diagnosed with oral cancer from 1995 to 2006 and were treated in the Department had their details entered prospectively onto a computerized database. Demographic details of patients, type of treatment, pathological stage of tumor (TNM), local and regional recurrence rate, overall survival, disease specific survival and incidence of involved margins were recorded and calculated. Of the 178 patients, 96 (54 %) were alive and free of oral cancer 5 years after surgery. Forty-four patients died of oral cancer (24.7 %) but 38 (21.3 %) died of other causes. The overall survival rate after primary surgery in relation to stage was: I 84 %, II 71 %, III 36 % and IV 28 %. As almost half of our patients presented with advanced cancer and had discouraging survival rates, we emphasize the need for early recognition of the disease. Advanced disease signifies difficulty in obtaining clear margins which actually indicates a higher recurrence rate. 25 % of our patients died of oral cancer within 5 years of surgery which highlights the poor prognosis that recurrence carries after treatment. Effective educational campaign with purpose to raise oral cancer awareness and earlier referral may result in improvement of survival.

  19. Minilaparotomy to rectal cancer has higher overall survival rate and earlier short-term recovery.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xiao-Dong; Huang, Ming-Jun; Yang, Chuan-Hua; Li, Ka; Li, Li

    2012-10-07

    To report our experience using mini-laparotomy for the resection of rectal cancer using the total mesorectal excision (TME) technique. Consecutive patients with rectal cancer who underwent anal-colorectal surgery at the authors' hospital between March 2001 and June 2009 were included. In total, 1415 patients were included in the study. The cases were divided into two surgical procedure groups (traditional open laparotomy or mini-laparotomy). The mini-laparotomy group was defined as having an incision length ≤ 12 cm. Every patient underwent the TME technique with a standard operation performed by the same clinical team. The multimodal preoperative evaluation system and postoperative fast track were used. To assess the short-term outcomes, data on the postoperative complications and recovery functions of these cases were collected and analysed. The study included a plan for patient follow-up, to obtain the long-term outcomes related to 5-year survival and local recurrence. The mini-laparotomy group had 410 patients, and 1015 cases underwent traditional laparotomy. There were no differences in baseline characteristics between the two surgical procedure groups. The overall 5-year survival rate was not different between the mini-laparotomy and traditional laparotomy groups (80.6% vs. 79.4%, P = 0.333), nor was the 5-year local recurrence (1.4% vs. 1.5%, P = 0.544). However, 1-year mortality was decreased in the mini-laparotomy group compared with the traditional laparotomy group (0% vs. 4.2%, P < 0.0001). Overall 1-year survival rates were 100% for stage I, 98.4% for stage II, 97.1% for stage III, and 86.6% for stage IV. Local recurrence did not differ between the surgical groups at 1 or 5 years. Local recurrence at 1 year was 0.5% (2 cases) for mini-laparotomy and 0.5% (5 cases) for traditional laparotomy (P = 0.670). Local recurrence at 5 years was 1.5% (6 cases) for mini-laparotomy and 1.4% (14 cases) for traditional laparotomy (P = 0.544). Days to first

  20. Effect of Coating Method on the Survival Rate of L. plantarum for Chicken Feed.

    PubMed

    Lee, Sang-Yoon; Jo, Yeon-Ji; Choi, Mi-Jung; Lee, Boo-Yong; Han, Jong-Kwon; Lim, Jae Kag; Oh, Jae-Wook

    2014-01-01

    This study was designed to find the most suitable method and wall material for microencapsulation of the Lactobacillus plantarum to maintain cell viability in different environmental conditions. To improve the stability of L. plantarum, we developed an encapsulation system of L. plantarum, using water-in-oil emulsion system. For the encapsulation of L. plantarum, corn starch and glyceryl monostearate were selected to form gel beads. Then 10% (w/v) of starch was gelatinized by autoclaving to transit gel state, and cooled down at 60ºC and mixed with L. plantarum to encapsulate it. The encapsulated L. plantarum was tested for the tolerance of acidic conditions at different temperatures to investigate the encapsulation ability. The study indicated that the survival rate of the microencapsulated cells in starch matrix was significantly higher than that of free cells in low pH conditions with relatively higher temperature. The results showed that corn starch as a wall material and glycerol monostearate as a gelling agent in encapsulation could play a role in the viability of lactic acid bacteria in extreme conditions. Using the current study, it would be possible to formulate a new water-in-oil system as applied in the protection of L. plantarum from the gastric conditions for the encapsulation system used in chicken feed industry.

  1. Effect of Coating Method on the Survival Rate of L. plantarum for Chicken Feed

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Sang-Yoon; Jo, Yeon-Ji; Choi, Mi-Jung; Lee, Boo-Yong; Han, Jong-Kwon; Lim, Jae Kag

    2014-01-01

    This study was designed to find the most suitable method and wall material for microencapsulation of the Lactobacillus plantarum to maintain cell viability in different environmental conditions. To improve the stability of L. plantarum, we developed an encapsulation system of L. plantarum, using water-in-oil emulsion system. For the encapsulation of L. plantarum, corn starch and glyceryl monostearate were selected to form gel beads. Then 10% (w/v) of starch was gelatinized by autoclaving to transit gel state, and cooled down at 60ºC and mixed with L. plantarum to encapsulate it. The encapsulated L. plantarum was tested for the tolerance of acidic conditions at different temperatures to investigate the encapsulation ability. The study indicated that the survival rate of the microencapsulated cells in starch matrix was significantly higher than that of free cells in low pH conditions with relatively higher temperature. The results showed that corn starch as a wall material and glycerol monostearate as a gelling agent in encapsulation could play a role in the viability of lactic acid bacteria in extreme conditions. Using the current study, it would be possible to formulate a new water-in-oil system as applied in the protection of L. plantarum from the gastric conditions for the encapsulation system used in chicken feed industry. PMID:26760943

  2. Survival rates in T1 and T2 gastric cancer: A Western report.

    PubMed

    Ikoma, Naruhiko; Blum, Mariela; Chiang, Yi-Ju; Estrella, Jeannelyn S; Roy-Chowdhuri, Sinchita; Fournier, Keith; Mansfield, Paul; Ajani, Jaffer A; Badgwell, Brian D

    2016-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify clinicopathologic factors associated with overall survival (OS) in early T stage gastric cancer in a Western population. Patients with stage T1 or T2 gastric or gastroesophageal adenocarcinoma who had undergone upfront gastrectomy from 1995 to 2013 were identified in an institutional database. We identified 121 patients with pathologic stage T1 or T2 tumors (49 [41%] T1a; 49 [41%] T1b; and 23 [19%] T2) who underwent R0 resection without preoperative treatment. Of these, 53% were white, 9% African American, 17% Hispanic, and 22% Asian. The median follow-up was 5.7 years, and the 5-year OS rate was 89% (98%, 93%, and 66% for patients with T1a, T1b, and T2 tumors, respectively). Univariate analysis revealed a higher risk of death in patients with T2 tumors and those of African American race. On multivariate analysis, T2 stage was the only variable independently associated with OS (hazard ratio, 2.80; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-7.12; P = 0.03). In this study of a Western population of patients with T1 or T2 gastric cancer, T2 stage was associated with diminished OS, whereas nodal status and race were not. J. Surg. Oncol. 2016;114:602-606. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Implant survival rate in bone-anchored hearing aid users: long-term results.

    PubMed

    Wallberg, E; Granström, G; Tjellström, A; Stalfors, J

    2011-11-01

    To investigate the long-term survival rate of bone-anchored hearing aid implants, and to assess the number of patients who stop using their bone-anchored hearing aid. Patients who underwent bone-anchored hearing aid surgery between September 1977 and December 1986 were identified from a prospective database. Data were collected from patient records. During the study period, 143 patients were fitted with a bone-anchored hearing aid. Records from 132 patients were found, with a mean follow up of nine years. A total of 150 implants were installed in these patients. A total of 41 implants (27 per cent) were lost during follow up: 17 lost osseointegration, 16 were removed and eight were lost due to direct trauma. At the end of follow up, 119/132 (90 per cent) patients were still using their bone-anchored hearing aid. Despite a high incidence of implant loss over time, a large number of patients still continued to use their bone-anchored hearing aid.

  4. Review of survival rates 20-years after conservative surgery for papillary thyroid carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Rapoport, Abrão; Curioni, Otávio Alberto; Amar, Ali; Dedivitis, Rogério Aparecido

    2015-01-01

    A less extensive thyroidectomy could be used for patients in the low risk group. To perform a critical follow-up after lobectomy with isthmusectomy for the treatment of papillary thyroid carcinoma in patients with a single nodule limited to the periphery of the lobe. Thirty-one patients with thyroid papillary carcinoma operated on till 1993 were selected. They had undergone lobectomy with isthmusectomy. This is a retrospective cohort study in which the oncological outcome (contralateral and regional recurrence) and the reoperation complications (recurrent nerve paralysis/paresis and hypoparathyroidism) were evaluated. Descriptive analysis was employed. In the last decade (2003-2013), 6 (20%) contralateral recurrences were observed in the remaining lobe and in 1 of these cases (3%), contralateral lymph node metastases were noted. A completion thyroidectomy plus lymphadenectomy was performed, without modification of global survival. Because of the rate of 20% of contralateral recurrence after a 20-year follow-up, we suggest modification of the surgical paradigm for total thyroidectomy as an initial therapy. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda.

  5. Relation of prenatal diagnosis with one-year survival rate for infants with congenital heart disease.

    PubMed

    Wright, Lydia K; Ehrlich, Alexandra; Stauffer, Nanci; Samai, Cyrus; Kogon, Brian; Oster, Matthew E

    2014-03-15

    Prenatal diagnosis of congenital heart defects (CHDs) is increasingly common, but it is still unclear whether it translates to improved postoperative outcomes. We performed a retrospective cohort study of all infants (aged <1 year) who underwent surgery for CHDs from 2006 to 2011 at a single institution. Primary outcomes were in-hospital and 1-year mortality rates. Secondary outcomes were readmission within 30 days of discharge, postoperative length of intensive care unit and hospital stay, unplanned reoperation, and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use. We used chi-square analyses, Wilcoxon rank-sum tests, Kaplan-Meier survival curves, and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to compare outcomes. Of the 1,642 patients with CHDs, 539 (33%) were diagnosed prenatally. Patients with prenatal diagnoses were of a younger age and less weight at the time of surgery, had greater Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery scores, and were more likely to be white, to have an identified syndrome, or to be born at term. Compared with those diagnosed postnatally, those diagnosed prenatally had a significantly higher unadjusted 1-year mortality rate (11% vs 5.5%, respectively, p = 0.03). Controlling for weight, surgical severity, race, age at surgery, prematurity, and the presence or absence of genetic syndrome, patients with prenatal diagnoses had significantly greater mortality at 1 year (adjusted hazard ratio 1.5, p = 0.03), as well as significantly longer intensive care unit and hospital stays. Infants with CHDs diagnosed prenatally had worse outcomes compared with those diagnosed postnatally. Prenatal diagnosis likely captures patients with more severe phenotypes within given surgical risk categories and even within diagnoses and thus may be an important prognostic factor when counseling families.

  6. Behavioral Hypervolumes of Predator Groups and Predator-Predator Interactions Shape Prey Survival Rates and Selection on Prey Behavior.

    PubMed

    Pruitt, Jonathan N; Howell, Kimberly A; Gladney, Shaniqua J; Yang, Yusan; Lichtenstein, James L L; Spicer, Michelle Elise; Echeverri, Sebastian A; Pinter-Wollman, Noa

    2017-03-01

    Predator-prey interactions often vary on the basis of the traits of the individual predators and prey involved. Here we examine whether the multidimensional behavioral diversity of predator groups shapes prey mortality rates and selection on prey behavior. We ran individual sea stars (Pisaster ochraceus) through three behavioral assays to characterize individuals' behavioral phenotype along three axes. We then created groups that varied in the volume of behavioral space that they occupied. We further manipulated the ability of predators to interact with one another physically via the addition of barriers. Prey snails (Chlorostome funebralis) were also run through an assay to evaluate their predator avoidance behavior before their use in mesocosm experiments. We then subjected pools of prey to predator groups and recorded the number of prey consumed and their behavioral phenotypes. We found that predator-predator interactions changed survival selection on prey traits: when predators were prevented from interacting, more fearful snails had higher survival rates, whereas prey fearfulness had no effect on survival when predators were free to interact. We also found that groups of predators that occupied a larger volume in behavioral trait space consumed 35% more prey snails than homogeneous predator groups. Finally, we found that behavioral hypervolumes were better predictors of prey survival rates than single behavioral traits or other multivariate statistics (i.e., principal component analysis). Taken together, predator-predator interactions and multidimensional behavioral diversity determine prey survival rates and selection on prey traits in this system.

  7. Long-term analysis of survival, fertility, and population growth rate of black bears in North Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brongo, L.L.; Mitchell, M.S.; Grand, J.B.

    2005-01-01

    We estimated survival, fertility, and realized and asymptotic population growth rates from 1981 to 2002 for a protected population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in the southern Appalachian Mountains. We used Akaike's information criterion to assess the time interval for averaging observations that was best for estimating vital rates for our study, given our yearly sample sizes. The temporal symmetry approach allowed us to directly assess population growth and to address all losses and gains to the population by using only capture data, offering an alternative to the logistically intensive collection of reproductive data. Models that averaged survival and fertility across 5- and 7-year time intervals were best supported by our data. Studies of black bear populations with annual sample sizes similar to ours should be of at least 5 years in duration to estimate vital rates reliably, and at least 10 years in duration to evaluate changes in population growth rate (??). We also hypothesized that survival would not track changes in ?? because ?? is influenced by both survival and fertility. The 5-year model supported our hypothesis, but the 7-year model did not. Where long-term dynamics of large, relatively stable bear populations are of interest, monitoring survival is likely to be sufficient for evaluating trends in ??. For rapidly changing, small populations, however, failure to incorporate fertility into assessments of ?? could be misleading. ?? 2005 American Society of Mammalogists.

  8. Early marine growth in relation to marine-stage survival rates for Alaska sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Farley, Edward V.; Murphy, J.M.; Adkison, Milo D.; Eisner, Lisa B.; Helle, J.H.; Moss, J.H.; Nielsen, Jennifer L.

    2007-01-01

    We tested the hypothesis that larger juvenile sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in Bristol Bay, Alaska, have higher marine-stage survival rates than smaller juvenile salmon. We used scales from returning adults (33 years of data) and trawl samples of juveniles (n= 3572) collected along the eastern Bering Sea shelf during August through September 2000−02. The size of juvenile sockeye salmon mirrored indices of their marine-stage survival rate (e.g., smaller fish had lower indices of marine-stage survival rate). However, there was no relationship between the size of sockeye salmon after their first year at sea, as estimated from archived scales, and brood-year survival size was relatively uniform over the time series, possibly indicating size-selective mortality on smaller individuals during their marine residence. Variation in size, relative abundance, and marine-stage survival rate of juvenile sockeye salmon is likely related to ocean conditions affecting their early marine migratory pathways along the eastern Bering Sea shelf.

  9. The Actuarial Society of South Africa AIDS model.

    PubMed

    1997-01-01

    The AIDS Committee of the Actuarial Society of South Africa has developed a demographic model to allow researchers to project the impact of HIV and AIDS in South Africa. The model is available for use as a projection tool rather than to endorse a given projected scenario as being representative. It is very flexible and can be adapted to suit different purposes by anyone with a working knowledge of Microsoft Excel. The need for a model, calibration of the model, the lack of allowance in the model for racial and cultural heterogeneity in the underlying population, and default scenario projections are discussed. The model is available free of charge via E-mail and on the worldwide web at the following respective addresses: awhitelo@oldmutual.com and http://www.und.ac.za/und/eco/eru/eru.htm.

  10. The survival rate and larynx preservation in elderly cancer patients who received surgical operation: A retrospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Wang, Qin; Liu, Yehai; Hu, Guoqin; Wang, Ruokun; Zhao, Yi; Zhang, Ming

    2016-12-01

    To investigate the efficiency of surgical operation for patients over 70 years with hypopharyngeal cancer. A retrospective analysis of the medical records from 68 patients over 70 years-old with hypopharyngeal cancer who underwent different therapeutic regimen between 2000 and 2009 was conducted. 36 of 68 patients underwent larynx preservation. All patients were treated with surgical operation and adjuvant radiotherapy. A Kaplan-Meier method was employed to calculate the survival rate. Overall 3 year-and 5 year-survival rates were 48.6% and 29.4% respectively. For patients who underwent larynx preservation, 5 year-survival rate was 30.5%, which was decreased compared to 3 year-survival rate (46.9%) However, 3 year- and 5 year-survival rates in patients without larynx preservation were 46.9% and 28.1% respectively, suggesting that no statistically significant difference of survival rates was found between patients with or without larynx preservation (P > 0.05). A majority of patients who receive larynx preservation exhibited normal breathing and eating abilities and could present an intelligible speech. 16 of 36 patients who preserved larynx and 14 of 32 patients who underwent laryngectomy showed postoperative complication. No significant difference was observed in these two treatments, indicating larynx preservation is not a factor for inducing complication. This study provides evidence that the quality of life for elderly patients with hypopharyngeal cancer can be improved by optimizing the therapeutic regimen based on the physical condition of each patient. Copyright © 2016 IJS Publishing Group Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Comparative Survival [Rate] Study (CSS); Design and Analysis, 2002 Technical Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Bouwes, Nick; Petrosky, Charlie; Schaller, Howard

    2002-04-01

    Fisheries agencies and tribes have developed a multi-year program, the Comparative Survival Study (CSS), to obtain information to be used in monitoring and evaluating the impacts of the mitigation measures and actions (e.g., flow augmentation, spill, and transportation) under NMFS' Biological Opinion to recover listed stocks. Through 2001, the CSS has utilized PIT tagged yearling hatchery chinook that were tagged specifically for the CSS and PIT tagged wild chinook from all available marking efforts in the Snake River basin above Lower Granite Dam. We selected hatchery programs that would allow the opportunity to mark sufficient numbers of smolts to give enough returning adult fish that statistically rigorous smolt-to-adult survival rates could be computed. Since the CSS inception, hatchery fish that have consistently been used include spring/summer chinook tagged at McCall, Rapid River, Dworshak, and Lookingglass (Imnaha stock) hatcheries. The CSS has also included a group of spring chinook from Carson Hatchery in the lower Columbia River for planned upstream/downstream comparison. The wild stocks included chinook PIT tagged as parr (summer/fall tagging season) and smolts (spring tagging season) in each major tributary above Lower Granite Dam. Future years will see the CSS add wild and hatchery steelhead in the Snake River basin, hatchery steelhead in the Mid-Columbia River basin, hatchery yearling chinook in the Mid-Columbia River basin, and wild chinook in John Day River in the lower Columbia River. Each PIT (passive integrated transponder) tag has a unique code. The tags are glass encapsulated, 11 mm in length, and implanted into the fish's underbelly by a syringe. All attempts are made to make the PIT tagged fish as representative of their untagged cohorts as possible. At trapping sites, sampling and tagging occur over the entire migration season. At hatcheries, fish to tag are obtained across as wide a set of ponds and raceways as possible to allow effective

  12. Prognostic Factors in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Less Than 3 Centimeters: Actuarial Analysis, Accumulative Incidence and Risk Groups.

    PubMed

    Peñalver Cuesta, Juan C; Jordá Aragón, Carlos; Mancheño Franch, Nuria; Cerón Navarro, José A; de Aguiar Quevedo, Karol; Arrarás Martínez, Miguel; Vera Sempere, Francisco J; Padilla Alarcón, Jose D

    2015-09-01

    In TNM classification, factors determining the tumor (T) component in non-small cell lung cancer have scarcely changed over time and are still based solely on anatomical features. Our objective was to study the influence of these and other morphopathological factors on survival. A total of 263 patients undergoing lung resection due to stage I non-small cell lung cancer ≤3cm in diameter were studied. A survival analysis and competing-risk estimate study was made on the basis of clinical, surgical and pathological variables using actuarial analysis and accumulative incidence methods, respectively. A risk model was then generated from the results. Survival at 5 and 10 years was 79.8 and 74.3%, respectively. The best prognostic factors were presence of symptoms, smoking habit and FEV1>60%, number of resected nodes>7, squamous histology, absence of vascular invasion, absence of visceral pleural invasion and presence of invasion more proximal than the lobar bronchus. All these were statistically significant according to the actuarial method. The factor "age<50 years" was close to the margin of statistical significance. Pleural invasion and vascular invasion were entered in the multivariate analysis. The competing-risk analysis showed a probability of death due to cancer of 14.3 and 35.1% at 5 and 10 years, respectively. Significant variables in the univariate and multivariate analyses were similar, with the exception of FEV1>60%. Pleural invasion and vascular invasion determine survival or risk of death due to non-small cell lung cancer ≤3cm and can be used for generating a predictive risk model. Copyright © 2014 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  13. Planetary quarantine in the solar system. Survival rates of some terrestrial organisms under simulated space conditions by proton irradiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koike, J.; Oshima, T.

    We have been studying the survival rates of some species of terrestrial unicellular and multicellular organism (viruses, bacteria, yeasts, fungi, algae, etc.) under simulated interstellar conditions, in connection with planetary quarantine. The interstellar environment in the solar system has been simulated by low temperature, high vacuum (77 K, 4 × 10 -8 torr), and proton irradiation from a Van de Graaff generator. After exposure to a barrage of protons corresponding to about 250 years of irradiation in solar space, tobacco mosaic virus, Bacillus subtilis spores, Staphylococcus aureus, Micrococcus flavus, Aspergillus niger spores, and Clostridium mangenoti spores showed survival rates of 82, 45, 74, 13, 28, and 25%, respectively.

  14. Planetary quarantine in the solar system. Survival rates of some terrestrial organisms under simulated space conditions by proton irradiation.

    PubMed

    Koike, J; Oshima, T

    1993-08-01

    We have been studying the survival rates of some species of terrestrial unicellular and multicellular organism (viruses, bacteria, yeasts, fungi, algae, etc.) under simulated interstellar conditions, in connection with planetary quarantine. The interstellar environment in the solar system has been simulated by low temperature, high vacuum (77 K, 4 x 10(-8) torr), and proton irradiation from a Van de Graaff generator. After exposure to a barrage of protons corresponding to about 250 years of irradiation in solar space, tobacco mosaic virus, Bacillus subtilis spores, Staphylococcus aureus, Micrococcus flavus, Aspergillus niger spores, and Clostridium mangenoti spores showed survival rates of 82, 45, 74, 13, 28, and 25%, respectively.

  15. Improvement of the Measure of the Network Survival Rate and its Application to a Japanese Business Relations Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kawamoto, Hirokazu; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

    We analyze the typical characteristics of the percolation transition of a large-scale complex network, a Japanese business relation network consisting of approximately 600,000 nodes and 4,000,000 links. By utilizing percolation characteristics, we revise the definition of network survival rate that we previously proposed. The new network survival rate has a strong correlation with the old one. The calculation cost is also much smaller and the number of trials decreases from 100,000 to 1,000. Finally, we discuss the identification of robust and fragile regions using this index.

  16. Population ecology of the mallard VIII: Winter distribution patterns and survival rates of winter-banded mallards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, James D.; Hines, James E.

    1987-01-01

    In the present report we address questions about winter distribution patterns and survival rates of North American mallards Anas platyrhynchos. Inferences are based on analyses of banding and recovery data from both winter and preseason banding period. The primary wintering range of the mallard was dividded into 45 minor reference areas and 15 major reference areas which were used to summarize winter banding data. Descriptive tables and figures on the recovery distributions of winter-banded mallards are presented. Using winter recoveries of preseason-banded mallards, we found apparent differences between recovery distribution of young versus adult birds from the same breeding ground reference areas. However, we found no sex-specific differences in winter recovery distribution patterns. Winter recovery distributions of preseason-banded birds also provided evidence that mallards exhibited some degree of year-to-year variation in wintering ground location. The age- and sex-specificity of such variation was tested using winter recoveries of winter-banded birds, and results indicated that subadult (first year) birds were less likely to return to the same wintering grounds the following year than adults. Winter recovery distributions of preseason-banded mallards during 1950-58 differed from distributions in 1966-76. These differences could have resulted from either true distributional shifts or geographic changes in hunting pressure. Survival and recovery rates were estimated from winter banding data. We found no evidence of differences in survival or recovery rates between subadult and adult mallards. Thus, the substantial difference between survival rates of preseason-banded young and adult mallards must result almost entirely from higher mortality of young birds during the approximate period, August-January. Male mallards showed higher survival than females, corroborating inferences based on preseason data. Tests with winter banding and band recovery data indicated

  17. Long-term actuarial survivorship analysis of an interspinous stabilization system.

    PubMed

    Sénégas, Jacques; Vital, Jean-Marc; Pointillart, Vincent; Mangione, Paolo

    2007-08-01

    In 1986, an interspinous dynamic stabilization system (the prototype of the current Wallis implant) was designed to stiffen unstable operated degenerate lumbar segments with a hard interspinous blocker to limit extension and a tension band around the spinous processes to secure the implant and limit flexion. Restoring physiological mechanical conditions to the treated level(s) while preserving some intervertebral mobility was intended to treat low-back pain related to degenerative instability without increasing stress forces in the adjacent segments. The procedure was easily reversible. If low back pain persisted or recurred, the device was removed and stability was achieved using fusion. The intermediate-term results were promising, but the long-term safety and efficacy of this dynamic interspinous stabilization device has not been previously documented. We retrospectively reviewed the hospital files of all the patients (n = 241) who had this dynamic stabilization system implanted between 1987 and 1995, contacting as many as possible to determine the actuarial survivorship of the system. In this manner, 142 of the 241 patients (58.9%) were contacted by telephone. The endpoints used for the survivorship analysis were 'any subsequent lumbar operation' and 'implant removal'. At 14 years follow-up, values of actuarial survivorship with 95% confidence interval were 75.9 +/- 8.3 and 81.3 +/- 6.8% for the endpoints 'any subsequent lumbar operation' and 'implant removal', respectively. There was no difference in survivorship of multiple-level implants with respect to single-level devices. Although the conclusions of the present study must be tempered by the 41% attrition rate, these findings support the long-term safety of this system, and possibly long-term protective action against adjacent-level degeneration by motion preservation. Outcomes at least equivalent to those of fusion were observed without the primary drawbacks of fusion.

  18. Projections of health care expenditures as a share of the GDP: actuarial and macroeconomic approaches.

    PubMed Central

    Warshawsky, M J

    1994-01-01

    STUDY QUESTION. Can the steady increases in health care expenditures as a share of GDP projected by widely cited actuarial models be rationalized by a macroeconomic model with sensible parameters and specification? DATA SOURCES. National Income and Product Accounts, and Social Security and Health Care Financing Administration are the data sources used in parameters estimates. STUDY DESIGN. Health care expenditures as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) are projected using two methodological approaches--actuarial and macroeconomic--and under various assumptions. The general equilibrium macroeconomic approach has the advantage of allowing an investigation of the causes of growth in the health care sector and its consequences for the overall economy. DATA COLLECTION METHODS. Simulations are used. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. Both models unanimously project a continued increase in the ratio of health care expenditures to GDP. Under the most conservative assumptions, that is, robust economic growth, improved demographic trends, or a significant moderation in the rate of health care price inflation, the health care sector will consume more than a quarter of national output by 2065. Under other (perhaps more realistic) assumptions, including a continuation of current trends, both approaches predict that health care expenditures will comprise between a third and a half of national output. In the macroeconomic model, the increasing use of capital goods in the health care sector explains the observed rise in relative prices. Moreover, this "capital deepening" implies that a relatively modest fraction of the labor force is employed in health care and that the rest of the economy is increasingly starved for capital, resulting in a declining standard of living. PMID:8063567

  19. Relationship between prenatal survival rate at 70 days of gestation and morphometric parameters of vagina, uterus and placenta in gilts.

    PubMed

    Vianna, W L; Pinese, M E; de Campos Rosseto, A; Bombonato, P P; Rodrigues, P H M; de Sant'Anna Moretti, A

    2004-12-01

    Swine uterine capacity affects litter size, and it could be used as a selection parameter of reproductive performance. Although there are some controversial results, evidences show that the catheter penetration length is positively correlated with litter size, and it could be used as a tool for predicting selection methods. The aim of this study was to determine whether there is any association between the prenatal survival rate and placental size at 70 days of gestation, the vaginal length [catheter penetration length during artificial insemination (AI)] and the uterine capacity in a homogeneous group of gilts. Sixty-six commercial-line gilts in pre-pubertal phase had their oestrus induced by hormonal treatment [600 UI of Equine Chorionic Gonadtrophin (eCG) i.m. and after a 72-h period 5 mg of luteinizing hormone (LH) i.m.], but only 40 gilts showed cyclicity after induction. The AI catheter penetration length was tested on these 40 gilts at the moment of AI using a calibrated AI catheter. Four gilts returned to oestrus and the other 36 were killed at around day 69 of pregnancy. The uterine length and weight showed a significant and positive correlation with the prenatal survival rate (p <0.05). The catheter penetration length was unable to predict the conceptus survival rate on 70 days of gestation; however, the uterine size influenced the survival rate positively. The mean placental area was positively correlated with the mean placental weight (p <0.0001), and both with the mean foetal weight (p <0.0001 and p <0.001, respectively). The analysis of the results obtained showed that neither did the catheter penetration length measurement during AI, nor the prenatal survival rate on day 70 of pregnancy predict the uterine capacity, but the uterine and placental size had a significant influence on the prenatal survival and foetus weight, respectively.

  20. Apparent Survival Rates of Forest Birds in Eastern Ecuador Revisited: Improvement in Precision but No Change in Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Blake, John G.; Loiselle, Bette A.

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge of survival rates of Neotropical landbirds remains limited, with estimates of apparent survival available from relatively few sites and species. Previously, capture-mark-recapture models were used to estimate apparent survival of 31 species (30 passerines, 1 Trochilidae) from eastern Ecuador based on data collected from 2001 to 2006. Here, estimates are updated with data from 2001-2012 to determine how additional years of data affect estimates; estimates for six additional species are provided. Models assuming constant survival had highest support for 19 of 31 species when based on 12 years of data compared to 27 when based on six; models incorporating effects of transients had the highest support for 12 of 31 species compared to four when based on 12 and six years, respectively. Average apparent survival based on the most highly-supported model (based on model averaging, when appropriate) was 0.59 (± 0.02 SE) across 30 species of passerines when based on 12 years and 0.57 (± 0.02) when based on six. Standard errors of survival estimates based on 12 years were approximately half those based on six years. Of 31 species in both data sets, estimates of apparent survival were somewhat lower for 13, somewhat higher for 17, and remained unchanged for one; confidence intervals for estimates based on six and 12 years of data overlapped for all species. Results indicate that estimates of apparent survival are comparable but more precise when based on longer-term data sets; standard error of the estimates was negatively correlated with numbers of captures (rs = −0.72) and recaptures (rs = −0.93, P<0.001 in both cases). Thus, reasonable estimates of apparent survival may be obtained with relatively few years of data if sample sizes are sufficient. PMID:24312519

  1. Apparent survival rates of forest birds in eastern Ecuador revisited: improvement in precision but no change in estimates.

    PubMed

    Blake, John G; Loiselle, Bette A

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge of survival rates of Neotropical landbirds remains limited, with estimates of apparent survival available from relatively few sites and species. Previously, capture-mark-recapture models were used to estimate apparent survival of 31 species (30 passerines, 1 Trochilidae) from eastern Ecuador based on data collected from 2001 to 2006. Here, estimates are updated with data from 2001-2012 to determine how additional years of data affect estimates; estimates for six additional species are provided. Models assuming constant survival had highest support for 19 of 31 species when based on 12 years of data compared to 27 when based on six; models incorporating effects of transients had the highest support for 12 of 31 species compared to four when based on 12 and six years, respectively. Average apparent survival based on the most highly-supported model (based on model averaging, when appropriate) was 0.59 (± 0.02 SE) across 30 species of passerines when based on 12 years and 0.57 (± 0.02) when based on six. Standard errors of survival estimates based on 12 years were approximately half those based on six years. Of 31 species in both data sets, estimates of apparent survival were somewhat lower for 13, somewhat higher for 17, and remained unchanged for one; confidence intervals for estimates based on six and 12 years of data overlapped for all species. Results indicate that estimates of apparent survival are comparable but more precise when based on longer-term data sets; standard error of the estimates was negatively correlated with numbers of captures (rs  = -0.72) and recaptures (rs  = -0.93, P<0.001 in both cases). Thus, reasonable estimates of apparent survival may be obtained with relatively few years of data if sample sizes are sufficient.

  2. A Systemic Review of Autologous Fat Grafting Survival Rate and Related Severe Complications

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Nan-Ze; Huang, Jiu-Zuo; Zhang, Hao; Wang, Yang; Wang, Xiao-Jun; Zhao, Ru; Bai, Ming; Long, Xiao

    2015-01-01

    Objective: Clinical application of autologous fat grafting (AFG) is quickly expanding. Despite the widely acceptance, long-term survival rate (SR) of AFG remains a question not yet solved. Meanwhile, although rare, severe complications related to AFG including vision loss, stroke even death could be seen in the literature. Data Sources: A comprehensive research of PubMed database to June 2013 was performed according to guidelines of the American Society of Plastic Surgeons Fat Graft Task Force Assessment Methodology. Articles were screened using predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Study Selection: Data collected included patient characteristics, surgical technique, donor site, recipient site, graft amount, and quantified measurement methods. Patient cohorts were pooled, and SR was calculated. All the severe complications were also summarized according to the different clinical characteristics. Results: Of 550 articles, 16 clinical articles and 10 animal studies met the inclusion criteria and provided quantified measurement methods. Totally, 596 patients were included. SR varied from 34% to 82% in breast and 30–83% in the facial area. Nude mice were applied to investigate human fat grafting SR (38.3–52.5% after 15 weeks). Rabbits were commonly used to study animal AFG SR (14.00–14.56% after 1-year). Totally, 21 severe complications were reported, including death (2), stroke (10), vision loss (11, 8 of which accompanied with stroke), sepsis (3), multiple abscess (1) and giant fat necrotic cyst (2). Ten of these complications happened within 10 years. Conclusions: There is no unified measurement method to evaluate fat graft SR until now and no clinical evidence to show better SR according to different donor and recipient cite. Body mass index change between pre- and postoperation may be the bias factor in evaluating fat SR. Fat embolisms of the ophthalmic artery and the middle cerebral artery are the most severe complication of AFG and still lack of

  3. Risk assessment with actuarial and clinical methods: Measurement and evidence-based practice.

    PubMed

    Mendoza, Natasha S; Rose, Roderick A; Geiger, Jennifer M; Cash, Scottye J

    2016-11-01

    Child welfare agencies have adopted assessment tools and instruments to inform the level of risk and guide the agency's level of intervention with the family. Actuarial assessments may be more uniform but inflexible with respect to practice wisdom whereas clinical or consensus-based assessments are more comprehensive and intuitive but lack objectivity. The purpose of the current study is to compare clinical and actuarial methods of risk assessment used by child welfare workers to make decisions about substantiation and services. The current study examined the (1) association between clinical and actuarial dimensions, (2) association between actuarial dimensions and outcomes, (3) association between clinical dimensions and outcomes, (4) caseworker primary use of actuarial dimensions, and (5) caseworker supplementary use of actuarial dimensions. Findings indicated that the actuarial may not be solely predictive of agency intensity with respect to case decision and service provision. Our findings suggest that dual-measurement does inform intensity, and we speculate from these findings that the measures may be involved with decision-making in a complex way. This study may be best viewed as a means by which researchers begin to parse how decisions are made; with this information, instruments may be better tailored to facilitate clinical, critical thought. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Short implants had lower survival rates in posterior jaws compared to standard implants.

    PubMed

    Stafford, Gary L

    2016-12-01

    Data sourcesPubMed/Medline, Embase and Cochrane Library databases supplemented by searches of the journals; Clinical Implant Dentistry and Related Research, Clinical Oral Implants Research, International Journal of Oral and Maxillofacial Implants, International Journal of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Journal of Clinical Periodontology, Journal of Dentistry, Journal of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Journal of Oral Implantology, Journal of Oral Rehabilitation, Journal of Periodontology, Periodontology 2000.Study selectionRandomised controlled trials (RCTs) and prospective studies with at least ten patients, published in the last ten years that compared short and standard implants and published in English were considered.Data extraction and synthesisA single author abstracted data with checking by a second reviewer. Methodological quality was assessed using the Jadad Scale and the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Risk ratios (RR) were calculated for implant survival rates, complications and prostheses failures and marginal bone loss was evaluated using mean difference (MD).ResultsThirteen studies consisting of ten RCTs and three prospective studies were included. The ten RCTs were considered to be of high quality. Two thousand six hundred and thirty-one implants were placed in 1269 patients (981 short and 1650 standard implants). Thirty-eight short implants failed (3.87%) and 45 standard implants (2.72%). Random effects meta-analysis found no statistically significant difference between standard implants and short implants placed in the posterior regions; RR =1.35 (95% CI; 0.82-2.22: P=0.24). Marginal bone loss was evaluated in nine studies and no differences in marginal bone loss were observed. Complications were reported by seven studies and no significant difference was seen between standard and short implants; RR= 0.54 (95% CI; 0.27-1.09: P = 0.08). There was also no significant difference in prosthesis failures between standard and short implants; RR= 0.96 (95

  5. Adrenalectomy does not improve survival rates of patients with solitary adrenal metastasis from non-small cell lung cancer

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Shao-Hong; Kong, Qing-Lei; Chen, Xue-Xia; He, Jin-Yuan; Qin, Jie; Chen, Zhuang-Gui

    2017-01-01

    Background and purpose Several case reports and studies have suggested that there is an increased survival rate for patients who undergo resection of solitary adrenal metastasis from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study aimed to investigate whether NSCLC patients with solitary adrenal metastasis could gain a higher survival rate after adrenalectomy (ADX) when compared with those patients undergoing nonsurgical treatment, and to investigate the potential prognostic factors. Patients and methods A total of 1,302 NSCLC inpatients’ data from 2001 to 2015 were retrospectively reviewed to identify those with solitary adrenal metastasis. Overall survival for those who underwent both primary resection and ADX was compared to those patients with conservative treatment using the log-rank test. Potential prognostic variables were evaluated with univariate and multivariate analyses including clinical, therapeutic, pathologic, primary and metastatic data. Results A total of 22 NSCLC patients with solitary adrenal metastasis were identified, with an overall median survival of 11 months (95% confidence interval: 9.4–12.6 months) and a 1-year survival rate of 51.4% (95% confidence interval: 29.6%–73.2%). All of the patients had died by 30 months. There was no significant survival difference between patients who underwent primary and metastasis resection (n=10) and those treated conservatively (n=12), (P=0.209). Univariate analysis identified Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) as the significant predictor of survival (P=0.024). Age (<65 vs ≥65 years), sex, pathologic type, mediastinal lymph node stage (N2 vs N0/N1), primary tumor size (<5 vs ≥5 cm), primary location (central vs peripheral), metastatic tumor size (<5 vs ≥5 cm), metastasis laterality, synchronous metastasis, and metastatic field radiotherapy were not identified as potential prognostic factors in relation to survival rate. In multivariate analysis, a stepwise

  6. Influence of Referral Pathway on Ebola Virus Disease Case-Fatality Rate and Effect of Survival Selection Bias

    PubMed Central

    Damkjær, Mads; Lunding, Suzanne; Dornonville de la Cour, Kenn; Young, Alyssa; Brooks, Tim; Sesay, Tom; Salam, Alex P.; Mishra, Sharmistha; Storgaard, Merete

    2017-01-01

    Case-fatality rates in Ebola treatment centers (ETCs) varied widely during the Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa. We assessed the influence of referral pathway on ETC case-fatality rates with a retrospective cohort of 126 patients treated at the Mathaska ETC in Port Loko, Sierra Leone. The patients consisted of persons who had confirmed EVD when transferred to the ETC or who had been diagnosed onsite. The case-fatality rate for transferred patients was 46% versus 67% for patients diagnosed onsite (p = 0.02). The difference was mediated by Ebola viral load at diagnosis, suggesting a survival selection bias. Comparisons of case-fatality rates across ETCs and clinical management strategies should account for potential survival selection bias. PMID:28322693

  7. Actuarial life-table analysis of lower impacted wisdom teeth in general dental practice.

    PubMed

    Fernandes, Marcelo José; Ogden, Graham Richard; Pitts, Nigel Berry; Ogston, Simon Alexander; Ruta, Danny Adolph

    2010-02-01

    The appropriateness of extraction of asymptomatic impacted third molars has been much debated and as a result the number of extractions has fallen in the UK in the past few years. As a direct consequence of this decrease more impacted third molars are left in situ and yet, little is known about the natural history of these teeth. The aim of this study was to create an actuarial life-table and related survival analysis that would shed light on the natural history of an impacted lower third molar. Panoramic radiographs taken in 14 different general dental practices in Scotland were analysed and matched with their respective case notes in order to generate a sample of patients with asymptomatic impacted lower third molars. Subjects were assessed to confirm the presence of impaction and absence of symptoms and then re-assessed 1 year later for the development of symptoms during the study period to relate the incidence of symptoms within 1 year in the sample studied to age. Logistic regression was used to construct a life table based on the survival of symptom-free teeth (independently of extraction) during the study period. The number of patients included in the study was 583 and 421 for the baseline and follow-up assessments respectively. The total number of teeth analysed in both appointments was 676; from those 37 (5.47%) were extracted during the study period. About 562 teeth (83.13%) survived the study period symptom-free. There was a statistically significant inverse association between the development of symptoms studied and age. There was no statistically significant association between extraction and age. The study indicates that older patients are less likely to develop the symptoms studied. In addition the authors believe that there is evidence to suggest that general dental practitioners might not be following current guidelines when deciding whether or not to extract an impacted lower third molar in the centres studied.

  8. How the probability of presentation to a primary care clinician correlates with cancer survival rates: a European survey using vignettes

    PubMed Central

    Harris, Michael; Frey, Peter; Esteva, Magdalena; Gašparović Babić, Svjetlana; Marzo-Castillejo, Mercè; Petek, Davorina; Petek Ster, Marija; Thulesius, Hans

    2017-01-01

    Objective European cancer survival rates vary widely. System factors, including whether or not primary care physicians (PCPs) are gatekeepers, may account for some of these differences. This study explores where patients who may have cancer are likely to present for medical care in different European countries, and how probability of presentation to a primary care clinician correlates with cancer survival rates. Design Seventy-eight PCPs in a range of European countries assessed four vignettes representing patients who might have cancer, and consensus groups agreed how likely those patients were to present to different clinicians in their own countries. These data were compared with national cancer survival rates. Setting A total of 14 countries. Subjects Consensus groups of PCPs. Main outcome measures Probability of initial presentation to a PCP for four clinical vignettes. Results There was no significant correlation between overall national 1-year relative cancer survival rates and the probability of initial presentation to a PCP (r  = −0.16, 95% CI −0.39 to 0.08). Within that there was large variation depending on the type of cancer, with a significantly poorer lung cancer survival in countries where patients were more likely to initially consult a PCP (lung r = −0.57, 95% CI −0.83 to −0.12; ovary: r = −0.13, 95% CI −0.57 to 0.38; breast r = 0.14, 95% CI −0.36 to 0.58; bowel: r = 0.20, 95% CI −0.31 to 0.62). Conclusions There were wide variations in the degree of gatekeeping between countries, with no simple binary model as to whether or not a country has a “PCP-as-gatekeeper” system. While there was case-by-case variation, there was no overall evidence of a link between a higher probability of initial consultation with a PCP and poorer cancer survival. Key points European cancer survival rates vary widely, and health system factors may account for some of these differences. The data from 14 European

  9. How the probability of presentation to a primary care clinician correlates with cancer survival rates: a European survey using vignettes.

    PubMed

    Harris, Michael; Frey, Peter; Esteva, Magdalena; Gašparović Babić, Svjetlana; Marzo-Castillejo, Mercè; Petek, Davorina; Petek Ster, Marija; Thulesius, Hans

    2017-03-01

    European cancer survival rates vary widely. System factors, including whether or not primary care physicians (PCPs) are gatekeepers, may account for some of these differences. This study explores where patients who may have cancer are likely to present for medical care in different European countries, and how probability of presentation to a primary care clinician correlates with cancer survival rates. Seventy-eight PCPs in a range of European countries assessed four vignettes representing patients who might have cancer, and consensus groups agreed how likely those patients were to present to different clinicians in their own countries. These data were compared with national cancer survival rates. A total of 14 countries. Consensus groups of PCPs. Probability of initial presentation to a PCP for four clinical vignettes. There was no significant correlation between overall national 1-year relative cancer survival rates and the probability of initial presentation to a PCP (r  = -0.16, 95% CI -0.39 to 0.08). Within that there was large variation depending on the type of cancer, with a significantly poorer lung cancer survival in countries where patients were more likely to initially consult a PCP (lung r = -0.57, 95% CI -0.83 to -0.12; ovary: r = -0.13, 95% CI -0.57 to 0.38; breast r = 0.14, 95% CI -0.36 to 0.58; bowel: r = 0.20, 95% CI -0.31 to 0.62). There were wide variations in the degree of gatekeeping between countries, with no simple binary model as to whether or not a country has a "PCP-as-gatekeeper" system. While there was case-by-case variation, there was no overall evidence of a link between a higher probability of initial consultation with a PCP and poorer cancer survival. KEY POINTS European cancer survival rates vary widely, and health system factors may account for some of these differences. The data from 14 European countries show a wide variation in the probability of initial presentation to a PCP. The degree to

  10. Prognostic value of continued smoking on survival and recurrence rates in patients with head and neck cancer: A systematic review.

    PubMed

    van Imhoff, Lieke C R; Kranenburg, Gabriëlle G J; Macco, Sven; Nijman, Nicoline L; van Overbeeke, Elisabeth J; Wegner, Inge; Grolman, Wilko; Pothen, Ajit J

    2016-04-01

    The purpose of this systematic review was to determine the prognostic value of continued smoking after diagnosis on survival and recurrence rates in head and neck cancer. A systematic search was performed and predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria were used to screen and select the articles. The remaining articles were critically appraised. Six articles were used for data extraction. The survival rate of patients who continued to smoke was 21% to 35% lower compared with patients who quit smoking. The recurrence rate for continued smoking was 23% and 30% higher. In 1 study, there was no difference between continuation and cessation of smoking, and 1 study showed a higher recurrence rate for patients who continued to smoke, which was not statistically significant. There is consistent evidence that survival rates are lower and recurrence rates are higher for patients who continue to smoke after being diagnosed with head and neck cancer. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 38: E2214-E2220, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. The influence of printing parameters on cell survival rate and printability in microextrusion-based 3D cell printing technology.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Yu; Li, Yang; Mao, Shuangshuang; Sun, Wei; Yao, Rui

    2015-11-02

    Three-dimensional (3D) cell printing technology has provided a versatile methodology to fabricate cell-laden tissue-like constructs and in vitro tissue/pathological models for tissue engineering, drug testing and screening applications. However, it still remains a challenge to print bioinks with high viscoelasticity to achieve long-term stable structure and maintain high cell survival rate after printing at the same time. In this study, we systematically investigated the influence of 3D cell printing parameters, i.e. composition and concentration of bioink, holding temperature and holding time, on the printability and cell survival rate in microextrusion-based 3D cell printing technology. Rheological measurements were utilized to characterize the viscoelasticity of gelatin-based bioinks. Results demonstrated that the bioink viscoelasticity was increased when increasing the bioink concentration, increasing holding time and decreasing holding temperature below gelation temperature. The decline of cell survival rate after 3D cell printing process was observed when increasing the viscoelasticity of the gelatin-based bioinks. However, different process parameter combinations would result in the similar rheological characteristics and thus showed similar cell survival rate after 3D bioprinting process. On the other hand, bioink viscoelasticity should also reach a certain point to ensure good printability and shape fidelity. At last, we proposed a protocol for 3D bioprinting of temperature-sensitive gelatin-based hydrogel bioinks with both high cell survival rate and good printability. This research would be useful for biofabrication researchers to adjust the 3D bioprinting process parameters quickly and as a referable template for designing new bioinks.

  12. Esophageal cancer epidemiology in blacks and whites: racial and gender disparities in incidence, mortality, survival rates and histology.

    PubMed Central

    Baquet, Claudia R.; Commiskey, Patricia; Mack, Kelly; Meltzer, Stephen; Mishra, Shiraz I.

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Esophageal cancer rate disparities are pronounced for blacks and whites. This study presents black-white esophageal cancer incidence, mortality, relative survival rates, histology and trends for two five-year time periods--1991-1995 and 1996-2000--and for the time period 1991-2000. METHODS: The study used data from the National Cancer Institute's population-based Surveillance Epidemiology End Results (SEER) program with submission dates 1991-2000. Age-adjusted incidence, mortality, relative survival rates and histology for esophageal carcinoma were calculated for nine SEER cancer registries for 1991-2000. Rates were analyzed by race and gender for changes over specified time periods. RESULTS: Esophageal cancer age-adjusted incidence of blacks was about twice that of whites (8.63 vs. 4.39/100,000, p < 0.05). Age-adjusted mortality for blacks, although showing a declining trend, was nearly twice that of whites (7.79 vs. 3.96, p < 0.05). Although survival was poor for all groups, it was significantly poorer in blacks than in whites. Squamous cell carcinoma was more commonly diagnosed in blacks and white females, whereas adenocarcinoma was more common among white males (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Racial disparities in esophageal cancer incidence, mortality, survival and histology exist. Survival rates from this disease have not significantly improved over the decade. These data support the need for advances in prevention, early detection biomarker research and research on new, more effective treatment modalities for this disease. Images Figure 1 PMID:16334494

  13. A Population-Based Study of the Association of Prenatal Diagnosis With Survival Rate for Infants With Congenital Heart Defects

    PubMed Central

    Oster, Matthew E.; Kim, Christopher H.; Kusano, Aaron S.; Cragan, Janet D.; Dressler, Paul; Hales, Alice R.; Mahle, William T.; Correa, Adolfo

    2015-01-01

    Prenatal diagnosis has been shown to improve preoperative morbidity in newborns with congenital heart defects (CHDs), but there are conflicting data as to the association with mortality. We performed a population-based, retrospective, cohort study of infants with prenatally versus postnatally diagnosed CHDs from 1994 to 2005 as ascertained by the Metropolitan Atlanta Congenital Defects Program. Among infants with isolated CHDs, we estimated 1-year Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities for prenatal versus postnatal diagnosis and estimated Cox proportional hazard ratios adjusted for critical CHD status, gestational age, and maternal race/ethnicity. Of 539,519 live births, 4,348 infants had CHDs (411 prenatally diagnosed). Compared with those with noncritical defects, those with critical defects were more likely to be prenatally diagnosed (58% vs 20%, respectively, p <0.001). Of the 3,146 infants with isolated CHDs, 1-year survival rate was 77% for those prenatally diagnosed (n = 207) versus 96% for those postnatally diagnosed (n = 2,939, p <0.001). Comparing 1-year survival rate among those with noncritical CHDs alone (n = 2,455) showed no difference between prenatal and postnatal diagnoses (96% vs 98%, respectively, p = 0.26), whereas among those with critical CHDs (n = 691), prenatally diagnosed infants had significantly lower survival rate (71% vs 86%, respectively, p <0.001). Among infants with critical CHDs, the adjusted hazard ratio for 1-year mortality rate for those prenatally versus postnatally (reference) diagnosed was 2.51 (95% confidence interval 1.72 to 3.66). In conclusion, prenatal diagnosis is associated with lower 1-year survival rate for infants with isolated critical CHDs but shows no change for those with isolated noncritical CHDs. More severe disease among the critical CHD subtypes diagnosed prenatally might explain these findings. PMID:24472597

  14. Septic patients with mitochondrial DNA haplogroup JT have higher respiratory complex IV activity and survival rate.

    PubMed

    Lorente, Leonardo; Martín, María M; López-Gallardo, Ester; Ferreres, José; Solé-Violán, Jordi; Labarta, Lorenzo; Díaz, César; Jiménez, Alejandro; Montoya, Julio; Ruiz-Pesini, Eduardo

    2016-06-01

    The influence of mitochondrial deoxyribonucleic acid (mtDNA) haplogroup or oxidative phosphorylation system (OXPHOS) function on survival of septic patients has been scarcely studied. However, the association between mtDNA haplogroup, OXPHOS capacity at diagnosis of severe sepsis, and survival has been not previously reported, and that was the objective of the present study. This was a prospective, multicenter, observational study. Blood samples from 198 patients at diagnosis of severe sepsis were analyzed to determine mtDNA haplogroup and platelet respiratory complex IV (CIV) specific activity. The end point of the study was 30-day survival. Septic patients with mtDNA haplogroup JT showed higher 30-day survival than those with mtDNA haplogroup non-JT (31/38 [81.6%] vs 99/160 [61.9%]; P= .02). Septic patients with mtDNA haplogroup JT showed higher platelet CIV specific activity than those with mtDNA haplogroup non-JT (P= .002). The main novel finding of our study, including the largest series providing data on platelet CIV specific activity according to mtDNA haplogroup in severe septic patients, was that those with mtDNA haplogroup JT showed higher survival and higher platelet CIV specific activity at diagnosis of severe sepsis than patients with mtDNA haplogroup non-JT. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Extraoral implants in the rehabilitation of craniofacial defects: implant and prosthesis survival rates and peri-implant soft tissue evaluation.

    PubMed

    Curi, Marcos Martins; Oliveira, Marcelo Ferraz; Molina, Giuliano; Cardoso, Camila Lopes; Oliveira, Loretta De Groot; Branemark, Per-Ingvar; Ribeiro, Karina de Cássia Braga

    2012-07-01

    Few reports have evaluated cumulative survival rates of extraoral rehabilitation and peri-implant soft tissue reaction at long-term follow-up. The objective of this study was to evaluate implant and prosthesis survival rates and the soft tissue reactions around the extraoral implants used to support craniofacial prostheses. A retrospective study was performed of patients who received implants for craniofacial rehabilitation from 2003 to 2010. Two outcome variables were considered: implant and prosthetic success. The following predictor variables were recorded: gender, age, implant placement location, number and size of implants, irradiation status in the treated field, date of prosthesis delivery, soft tissue response, and date of last follow-up. A statistical model was used to estimate survival rates and associated confidence intervals. We randomly selected 1 implant per patient for analysis. Data were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test to compare survival curves. A total of 150 titanium implants were placed in 56 patients. The 2-year overall implant survival rates were 94.1% for auricular implants, 90.9% for nasal implants, 100% for orbital implants, and 100% for complex midfacial implants (P = .585). The implant survival rates were 100% for implants placed in irradiated patients and 94.4% for those placed in nonirradiated patients (P = .324). The 2-year overall prosthesis survival rates were 100% for auricular implants, 90.0% for nasal implants, 92.3% for orbital implants, and 100% for complex midfacial implants (P = .363). The evaluation of the peri-implant soft tissue response showed that 15 patients (26.7%) had a grade 0 soft tissue reaction, 30 (53.5%) had grade 1, 6 (10.7%) had grade 2, and 5 (8.9%) had grade 3. From this study, it was concluded that craniofacial rehabilitation with extraoral implants is a safe, reliable, and predictable method to restore the patient's normal appearance. Copyright © 2012 American Association of Oral

  16. Short-term survival and mortality rates in a retrospective study of colic in 1588 Danish horses.

    PubMed

    Christophersen, Mogens T; Dupont, Nana; Berg-Sørensen, Kristina S; Konnerup, Christel; Pihl, Tina H; Andersen, Pia H

    2014-04-08

    Outcomes of colic treatment are of great interest to clinicians, horse owners and insurers. One commonly used criterion of success is the overall short-term survival rate. This is used as to compare treatments and to measure quality of veterinary care, but may be biased by demographic or social factors such as attitudes towards animal suffering and euthanasia. The aims of this study were to 1) describe and analyse characteristics in horses with signs of colic referred to the University Hospital for Large Animals (UHLA), University of Copenhagen, Denmark over a 10-year period and 2) to compare these rates with those published in other comparable studies. The overall survival rate for colic horses over the 10-year study period was 68% (confidence intervals (CI): 66-71%; 1087/1588). In the medical group, 1093 horses, short-term survival was 87% (CI: 85-89%). Thirty one % of referred horses were given diagnoses requiring surgical intervention (CI: 29-33%). In this group 32% of the horses were euthanized before surgery (CI: 28-36%; 159/495). Of the surgical cases 27% (CI: 23-31%) were euthanized or died during surgery. Of the horses that recovered from surgery 25% died or were euthanized (CI: 19-32%; 48/189), while 75% survived to discharge (CI: 68-81%). The short term survival rates of Danish horses with colic were similar or lower to those reported from other countries. Apart from variability of veterinary care, attitudes towards euthanasia vary among the countries, which may bias the outcomes. This study indicates that qualitative interview studies on owners' attitudes towards animal suffering and euthanasia need to be conducted. Our opinion is that survival rates are not valid as sole indicators of quality of care in colic treatment due to selection bias. If the survival rates are to be compared between hospitals, techniques or surgeons, prospective studies including mutually agreed-on disease severity scores and a predefined set of reasons for euthanasia are needed.

  17. Long-term survival rates of gravity-assisted, adjustable differential pressure valves in infants with hydrocephalus.

    PubMed

    Gebert, Anna-Felicitas; Schulz, Matthias; Schwarz, Karin; Thomale, Ulrich-Wilhelm

    2016-05-01

    OBJECTIVE The use of adjustable differential pressure valves with gravity-assisted units in shunt therapy of children with hydrocephalus was reported to be feasible and promising as a way to avoid chronic overdrainage. In this single-center study, the authors' experiences in infants, who have higher rates of shunt complications, are presented. METHODS All data were collected from a cohort of infants (93 patients [37 girls and 56 boys], less than 1 year of age [mean age 4.1 ± 3.1 months]) who received their first adjustable pressure hydrocephalus shunt as either a primary or secondary implant between May 2007 and April 2012. Rates of valve and shunt failure were recorded for a total of 85 months until the end of the observation period in May 2014. RESULTS During a follow-up of 54.2 ± 15.9 months (range 26-85 months), the Kaplan-Meier rate of shunt survival was 69.2% at 1 year and 34.1% at 85 months; the Kaplan-Meier rate of valve survival was 77.8% at 1 year and 56% at 85 months. Survival rates of the shunt were significantly inferior if the patients had previous shunt surgery. During follow-up, 44 valves were exchanged in cases of infection (n = 19), occlusion (n = 14), dysfunction of the adjustment unit (n = 10), or to change the gravitational unit (n = 1). CONCLUSIONS Although a higher shunt complication rate is observed in infant populations compared with older children, reasonable survival rates demonstrate the feasibility of using this sophisticated valve technology. The gravitational unit of this valve is well tolerated and its adjustability offers the flexible application of opening pressure in an unpredictable cohort of patients. This may adequately address overdrainage-related complications from early in treatment.

  18. High rates of long-term survival of deep-sea infauna in the laboratory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weinberg, James R.

    1990-08-01

    Living bivalves ( Nucula, Thyasira), a gastropod ( Frigidoalvania brychia) and a calcareous foraminiferan ( Laticarinina pauperata), from 775 m depth in the northwest Atlantic, were maintained in the laboratory for 772 days to measure their survival. The organisms, <4 mm in size, were maintained at 1 atm and at 5°C in cups containing sediment and seawater. Over the 772 day period, 46% of all bivalves and one of two gastropods survived. Minimum estimates for survival of L. pauperata in six containers ranged from 0 to 67% for a 1-2 year period. This study demonstrates that it is feasible to maintain continental slope infauna in the laboratory for long periods of time. Such organisms could be used in experiments that examine their mobility, responses to different sediments and foods, and sizes and shapes of biogenic structures produced in sediments.

  19. Precise calculation of a bond percolation transition and survival rates of nodes in a complex network.

    PubMed

    Kawamoto, Hirokazu; Takayasu, Hideki; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft; Takayasu, Misako

    2015-01-01

    Through precise numerical analysis, we reveal a new type of universal loopless percolation transition in randomly removed complex networks. As an example of a real-world network, we apply our analysis to a business relation network consisting of approximately 3,000,000 links among 300,000 firms and observe the transition with critical exponents close to the mean-field values taking into account the finite size effect. We focus on the largest cluster at the critical point, and introduce survival probability as a new measure characterizing the robustness of each node. We also discuss the relation between survival probability and k-shell decomposition.

  20. A comparison of injectable fluorescent marks in two genera of darters: Effects on survival and retention rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roberts, J.H.; Angermeier, P.L.

    2004-01-01

    Visible implant elastomer (VIE) and injectable photonic dye (IPD), two types of injectable fluorescent marks, have shown promise in previous applications in a variety of fishes but have not been extensively tested on darters. We marked a species from each of two genera of darters, Percina and Etheostoma, in a laboratory experiment to determine the influence of VIE and IPD marks on survival and the influences of mark type, location, and color on mark retention. Short-term (???80-d) survival was similar between marked and control specimens for both marks in both species. Over the long term (200-240 d), however, the survival rate for IPD-marked Roanoke darters P. roanoka was significantly lower than that for controls (50% versus 80%), whereas VIE-marked Roanoke darters had a survival rate (88%) similar to that of controls. Long-term survival of riverweed darters E. podostemone did not differ among groups. In Roanoke darters, the mark retention rate for IPD was significantly lower than that for VIE by day 80 of the experiment (80% versus 94%), and ventral IPD marks were retained with greater frequency than were dorsal IPD marks. In riverweed darters, retention was similar for VIE and IPD (79% versus 83%) in all body locations through day 240. In both species, yellow IPD marks exhibited higher retention rates than did green IPD marks, whereas the reverse was true for yellow and green VIE marks. Overall, VIE was a superior mark in the Percina representative but performed similarly to IPD in Etheostoma. Because of interspecific and intraspecific variability in mark performance, we recommend a pilot study before initiating field use of injectable marks in untested species.

  1. Comparison of in vivo and in vitro survival and fecundity rates of the poultry red mite, Dermanyssus gallinae.

    PubMed

    Arkle, S; George, D R; Guy, J H; Sparagano, O A E

    2010-04-01

    To assist in the testing of possible antigens in developing a vaccine against the poultry red mite (Dermanyssus gallinae De Geer), a rapid and reliable in vitro screening method is critical. This short paper describes how D. gallinae survival and fecundity rates in an in vivo feeding device compared to that of mites fed using an in vitro method. Results showed that survival of fed D. gallinae females and mites overall was greater in vitro, although there was no difference between male survival and fecundity between in vivo and in vitro designs. The in vitro feeding device described therefore has the potential to provide reliable results, comparable to those obtained by in vivo testing, to allow for the rapid screening of D. gallinae antigens.

  2. Survival and feeding rates of four aphid species (Hemiptera: Aphididae) on various sucrose concentrations in diets

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Different concentrations of sucrose were used to investigate how survival and feeding was affected on four species of aphids (Hemiptera: Aphididae). Seven sucrose concentrations were evaluated in feeding chambers fitted with a parafilm membranes and infested with nymphs of Aphis glycines, Diuraphi...

  3. 76 FR 81362 - Regulations Governing the Performance of Actuarial Services Under the Employee Retirement Income...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-12-28

    ... Enrollment of Actuaries. ACTION: Correction to final regulations. SUMMARY: This document contains corrections...) and (H),'' is corrected to read ``901.11(f)(2)(i)(D), 901.11(f)(2)(i)(G) and (H),''. Guy R. Traynor...

  4. A classification tree approach to the development of actuarial violence risk assessment tools.

    PubMed

    Steadman, H J; Silver, E; Monahan, J; Appelbaum, P S; Robbins, P C; Mulvey, E P; Grisso, T; Roth, L H; Banks, S

    2000-02-01

    Since the 1970s, a wide body of research has suggested that the accuracy of clinical risk assessments of violence might be increased if clinicians used actuarial tools. Despite considerable progress in recent years in the development of such tools for violence risk assessment, they remain primarily research instruments, largely ignored in daily clinical practice. We argue that because most existing actuarial tools are based on a main effects regression approach, they do not adequately reflect the contingent nature of the clinical assessment processes. To enhance the use of actuarial violence risk assessment tools, we propose a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach. In addition, we suggest that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases--instead of the standard single threshold--the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced. These claims are supported with empirical data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.

  5. A Bayesian approach to the group versus individual prediction controversy in actuarial risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Scurich, Nicholas; John, Richard S

    2012-06-01

    Recent attempts to indict the use of actuarial risk assessment instruments have relied on confidence intervals to demonstrate that risk estimates derived at the group level do not necessarily apply to any specific individual within that group. This article contends that frequentist confidence intervals are inapposite to the current debate. Instead, Bayesian credible intervals are necessary-in principle-to accomplish what commentators are concerned about: describing the precision of an actuarial risk estimate. After illustrating both the calculation and interpretation of credible intervals, this article shows how such intervals can be used to characterize the precision of actuarial risk estimates. It then explores the legal implications of wide and overlapping intervals. Contrary to what detractors claim, the fact that risk estimate intervals overlap is not a germane to legal (logical) relevance, and therefore actuarial risk estimates cannot be per se "inadmissible" on this basis.

  6. [Rectal resection for cancer in Lower-Normandy. Loco-regional recurrences and survival. Results of a regional survey (1988-1993)].

    PubMed

    Desoubeaux, N; Maurel, J; Petit, T; Launoy, G; Gignoux, M

    1999-01-01

    A retrospective regional study was set up to identify the determinants of loco-regional recurrences and those of survival after rectal resection for cancer. The studied population was constituted of 505 patients with resection for carcinoma of the rectum in Lower-Normandy from 1988 to 1993. The actuarial rate of loco-regional recurrence was 17.3 +/- 4% at 3 years. The only significant predictive factor of survival free of loco-regional recurrence was the Dukes' stage. Actuarial survival rate was 52.0 +/- 4% at 5 years, the corresponding relative survival rate being 64.6 +/- 6%. The only two independent prognostic factors were the sphincter-saving procedure and adjuvant radiotherapy. The loco-regional recurrence rate after resection for rectal cancer is still high. Sphincter-saving procedure and adjuvant radiotherapy increase over the time. Since the study was retrospective, no definitive conclusions could be drawn. Nevertheless, they incite us to set up larger prospective regional studies including quality control of surgical procedures, radiotherapy protocols and histopathological reports.

  7. Stable and fluctuating temperature effects on the development rate and survival of two malaria vectors, Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles funestus

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Understanding the biology of malaria vector mosquitoes is crucial to understanding many aspects of the disease, including control and future outcomes. The development rates and survival of two Afrotropical malaria vectors, Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles funestus, are investigated here under conditions of constant and fluctuating temperatures. These data can provide a good starting point for modelling population level consequences of temperature change associated with climate change. For comparative purposes, these data were considered explicitly in the context of those available for the third African malaria vector, Anopheles gambiae. Methods Twenty five replicates of 20–30 eggs were placed at nine constant and two fluctuating temperatures for development rate experiments and survival estimates. Various developmental parameters were estimated from the data, using standard approaches. Results Lower development threshold (LDT) for both species was estimated at 13-14°C. Anopheles arabiensis developed consistently faster than An. funestus. Optimum temperature (Topt) and development rate at this temperature (μmax) differed significantly between species for overall development and larval development. However, Topt and μmax for pupal development did not differ significantly between species. Development rate and survival of An. funestus was negatively influenced by fluctuating temperatures. By contrast, development rate of An. arabiensis at fluctuating temperatures either did not differ from constant temperatures or was significantly faster. Survival of this species declined by c. 10% at the 15°C to 35°C fluctuating temperature regime, but was not significantly different between the constant 25°C and the fluctuating 20°C to 30°C treatment. By comparison, previous data for An. gambiae indicated fastest development at a constant temperature of 28°C and highest survival at 24°C. Conclusions The three most important African malaria vectors all differ

  8. IMPROVED SURVIVAL AND DEVELOPMENTAL RATES IN VITRIFIED-WARMED PIG OOCYTES AFTER RECOVERY CULTURE WITH COENZYME Q10.

    PubMed

    Hwang, In-Sul; Kwon, D ae-Jin; Kwak, Tae-Uk; Lee, Jeong-Woong; Im, Gi-Sun; Hwang, Seongsoo

    2016-01-01

    The primary problems with porcine oocyte vitrification are their low viability and development; both need improvement. This study was designed to improve the survival and developmental rates in vitrified-warmed porcine oocytes. Porcine oocytes matured in vitro were vitrified-warmed with Cryotop. Then the oocytes were supplemented with Q10 during recovery culture. The survival rates immediately after warming were 92.9% by morphological inspection and 39.3% by fluorescein diacetate (FDA) assay. The group of recovery culture with Q10 (VC+Q10) showed significantly higher viability compared to the group of recovery culture without Q10 (VC+) analyzed by morphology and the FDA. The VC+Q10 group showed a low Bax/Bcl-xl ratio and a high expression of MAP3K12 and TGFB3 compared to the VC+. The cleavage rate did not differ in both groups but, blastocyst yield was higher in VC+Q10 than the VC+ group. Supplementation of Q10 during recovery culture led to a higher blastocyst yield by increasing survival rates and regulating mRNA expressions.

  9. Influence of perforation of the sinus membrane on the survival rate of implants placed after direct sinus lift. Literature update.

    PubMed

    Viña-Almunia, José; Peñarrocha-Diago, María; Peñarrocha-Diago, Miguel

    2009-03-01

    The aim of this paper was to review the procedures adopted when a perforation of the sinus membrane takes place during a direct sinus lift for filling with bone graft; and the survival of implants in those cases in which perforation of the sinus membrane occurred. A bibliographical search in PUBMED was carried out of articles published from 1997 to 2008, with the key words "sinus perforation" and "membrane perforation". All articles specifying the two following criteria were included: (a) procedure in the case of perforation of the sinus membrane during direct sinus lift; and (b) the number and survival rate of implants placed in direct sinus lift with perforated and non perforated membrane. Six articles fulfilled the inclusion criteria. In all the articles the sinus lift was continued when a perforation of the sinus membrane took place. In maxillary sinus lift procedures with perforation of the membrane a 88.6% implant survival rate was obtained, and in maxillary sinus lifts with intact membrane the survival rate rose to 98%. In case of small perforation of the sinus membrane, it is possible to continue with the procedure; there is no consensus on the procedure when a perforated membrane is to be repaired, but the method of choice according to the majority of authors is to use a reservable membrane. In the case of large perforation, there is no consensus either, although the majority of authors choose to abandon the procedure. The survival of the implants diminishes when they are placed in sinus lifts with perforated membrane.

  10. Survival rate of antitumour necrosis factor-α treatments for psoriasis in routine dermatological practice: a multicentre observational study.

    PubMed

    Esposito, M; Gisondi, P; Cassano, N; Ferrucci, G; Del Giglio, M; Loconsole, F; Giunta, A; Vena, G A; Chimenti, S; Girolomoni, G

    2013-09-01

    Adherence is an overall marker of treatment success, and it depends on multiple factors including efficacy and safety. Despite the wide use of tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α blockers in the treatment of plaque-type psoriasis, few data regarding treatment adherence in routine clinical practice are available. To estimate the long-term survival rate of anti-TNF-α therapy in a cohort of patients with psoriasis in routine clinical practice; to evaluate the reasons for and predictors of treatment discontinuation. The Outcome and Survival rate Concerning Anti-TNF Routine treatment (OSCAR) study was based on a retrospective analysis to estimate the long-term survival rate of the first anti-TNF-α treatment in patients with psoriasis, from three Italian academic referral centres. Adult patients (n = 650) with plaque psoriasis treated with a first course of adalimumab, etanercept or infliximab for ≥ 3 months were included. Global adherence to anti-TNF-α treatments after 28·9 ± 15·4 months (867 ± 462 days) of observation was 72·6%. Etanercept showed a longer survival (mean 51·4 months, 1565 days; P < 0·001) compared with infliximab (36·8 months, 1120 days) and adalimumab (34·7 months, 1056 days). Treatment discontinuation due to primary and secondary inefficacy was observed in 5·2% and 14·5% of patients, respectively, whereas discontinuation due to adverse events was reported in 29 subjects (4·5%). Independent predictors of treatment withdrawal were female gender [hazards ratio (HR) 1·3], treatment with adalimumab or infliximab compared with etanercept (HR 2·7 and 1·7, respectively), and the concomitant use of traditional systemic treatment, as a rescue therapy, compared with monotherapy (HR 1·9). Overall survival of anti-TNF-α agents in psoriasis is elevated, with drug discontinuation mostly due to inefficacy. Etanercept showed a longer adherence compared with adalimumab and infliximab. © 2013 British Association of Dermatologists.

  11. Hazard regression model and cure rate model in colon cancer relative survival trends: are they telling the same story?

    PubMed

    Bejan-Angoulvant, Theodora; Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Bossard, Nadine; Belot, Aurelien; Jooste, Valérie; Launoy, Guy; Remontet, Laurent

    2008-01-01

    Hazard regression models and cure rate models can be advantageously used in cancer relative survival analysis. We explored the advantages and limits of these two models in colon cancer and focused on the prognostic impact of the year of diagnosis on survival according to the TNM stage at diagnosis. The analysis concerned 9,998 patients from three French registries. In the hazard regression model, the baseline excess death hazard and the time-dependent effects of covariates were modelled using regression splines. The cure rate model estimated the proportion of 'cured' patients and the excess death hazard in 'non-cured' patients. The effects of year of diagnosis on these parameters were estimated for each TNM cancer stage. With the hazard regression model, the excess death hazard decreased significantly with more recent years of diagnoses (hazard ratio, HR 0.97 in stage III and 0.98 in stage IV, P < 0.001). In these advanced stages, this favourable effect was limited to the first years of follow-up. With the cure rate model, recent years of diagnoses were significantly associated with longer survivals in 'non-cured' patients with advanced stages (HR 0.95 in stage III and 0.97 in stage IV, P < 0.001) but had no significant effect on cure (odds ratio, OR 0.99 in stages III and IV, P > 0.5). The two models were complementary and concordant in estimating colon cancer survival and the effects of covariates. They provided two different points of view of the same phenomenon: recent years of diagnosis had a favourable effect on survival, but not on cure.

  12. Survival Rate of Resin and Ceramic Inlays, Onlays, and Overlays: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Morimoto, S; Rebello de Sampaio, F B W; Braga, M M; Sesma, N; Özcan, M

    2016-08-01

    This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the survival rate of ceramic and resin inlays, onlays, and overlays and to identify the complication types associated with the main clinical outcomes. Two reviewers searched PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for articles published between 1983 through April 2015, conforming to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines for systematic reviews. Clinical studies meeting the following criteria were included: 1) studies related to resin and ceramic inlays, onlays, and overlays; 2) prospective, retrospective, or randomized controlled trials conducted in humans; 3) studies with a dropout rate of less than 30%; and 4) studies with a follow-up longer than 5 y. Of 1,389 articles, 14 met the inclusion criteria. The meta-regression indicated that the type of ceramic material (feldspathic porcelain vs. glass-ceramic), study design (retrospective vs. prospective), follow-up time (5 vs. 10 y), and study setting (university vs. private clinic) did not affect the survival rate. Estimated survival rates for glass-ceramics and feldspathic porcelain were between 92% and 95% at 5 y (n = 5,811 restorations) and were 91% at 10 y (n = 2,154 restorations). Failures were related to fractures/chipping (4%), followed by endodontic complications (3%), secondary caries (1%), debonding (1%), and severe marginal staining (0%). Odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) were 0.19 (0.04 to 0.96) and 0.54 (0.17 to 1.69) for pulp vitality and type of tooth involved (premolars vs. molars), respectively. Ceramic inlays, onlays, and overlays showed high survival rates at 5 y and 10 y, and fractures were the most frequent cause of failure. © International & American Associations for Dental Research 2016.

  13. A clinical study on survival rate of patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the lower lip in Kosovo.

    PubMed

    Salihu, Sami; Güven, Orhan; Gllareva, Enis; Prekazi, Mergime; Salihu, Leminot

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this study is to find out the survival rate of patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the lower lip in Kosovo and to see the effect of stage of disease on the success of surgical treatment. 789 patients with SCCLL who were referred to the Department of Maxillofacial Surgery, University Clinical Centre of Kosovo, were examined during a period of 20 years (between 1993 and 2013). 614 (77.82%) of these patients received treatment and have regularly visited the department once every 3 months for post-operative controls. Data have been collected from these 614 patients for 10 years; thus the follow-up period lasts for 10 years for every patient under control. The collected data were analysed using Chi square test. Patients were classified by sex, aetiology, stage of the disease, location of the disease, the treatment patients received, metastasis rate and survival rate. The most susceptible patients were those at ages between 50 and 70. The youngest patient was 8 years old whereas the oldest was 92. The male-female ratio was 5:1. 57% of the patients had been working outdoors and had been exposed to sunlight. Ten years survival rate for the Stages I, II, III and IV was 91.7%, 83.7%, 28% and 11.4% respectively. It was found that the success of the surgery was closely related with the stage of disease and early diagnosis. Training the relevant parties (i.e., the people, family doctors etc.) on early diagnosis would improve the survival rate. Copyright © 2014 European Association for Cranio-Maxillo-Facial Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Limnology of nine small lakes, Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Alaska, and the survival and growth rates of rainbow trout

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Woods, P.F.

    1985-01-01

    The survival and growth rates of rainbow trout (Salmo gairdnieri) were concurrently measured with selected limnological characteristics in nine small (surface area < 25 sq hectometers) lakes in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. The project goal was to develop empirical models for predicting rainbow trout growth rates from the following variables: total phosphorus concentration, chlorophyll a concentration, Secchi disc transparency, or the morphoedaphic index--a means of characterizing potential biological productivity. No suitable model could be developed from the data collected during 1982 and 1983. The lack of significant correlation was attributed in part to the wide variation in survival of rainbow trout. Winterkills, caused by severe depletion of dissolved oxygen, were suspected in four of the lakes. Varied levels of fishing pressure and competition with threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) also influenced survival of rainbow trout but their effects were overshadowed by winterkill. Predictive capability was also reduced because of inconsistencies in rankings generated by each of the four limnological variables chosen as indicators of potential biological productivity. A lake ranked low in productivity by one variable was commonly ranked high in productivity by another variable. The survivability of rainbow trout stocked in lakes such as these nine may be a more important indicator of potential biomass production than are indicators of lake fertility. Assessments of a lake 's susceptibility to winterkill and the degree of competition with threespine stickleback are suggested as important topics for additional research. (Author 's abstract)

  15. Scoring Systems to Estimate Intracerebral Control and Survival Rates of Patients Irradiated for Brain Metastases;Brain metastases; Radiation therapy; Local control; Survival; Prognostic scores

    SciTech Connect

    Rades, Dirk; Dziggel, Liesa; Haatanen, Tiina; Veninga, Theo; Lohynska, Radka; Dunst, Juergen; Schild, Steven E.

    2011-07-15

    Purpose: To create and validate scoring systems for intracerebral control (IC) and overall survival (OS) of patients irradiated for brain metastases. Methods and Materials: In this study, 1,797 patients were randomly assigned to the test (n = 1,198) or the validation group (n = 599). Two scoring systems were developed, one for IC and another for OS. The scores included prognostic factors found significant on multivariate analyses. Age, performance status, extracerebral metastases, interval tumor diagnosis to RT, and number of brain metastases were associated with OS. Tumor type, performance status, interval, and number of brain metastases were associated with IC. The score for each factor was determined by dividing the 6-month IC or OS rate (given in percent) by 10. The total score represented the sum of the scores for each factor. The score groups of the test group were compared with the corresponding score groups of the validation group. Results: In the test group, 6-month IC rates were 17% for 14-18 points, 49% for 19-23 points, and 77% for 24-27 points (p < 0.0001). IC rates in the validation group were 19%, 52%, and 77%, respectively (p < 0.0001). In the test group, 6-month OS rates were 9% for 15-19 points, 41% for 20-25 points, and 78% for 26-30 points (p < 0.0001). OS rates in the validation group were 7%, 39%, and 79%, respectively (p < 0.0001). Conclusions: Patients irradiated for brain metastases can be given scores to estimate OS and IC. IC and OS rates of the validation group were similar to the test group demonstrating the validity and reproducibility of both scores.

  16. Association of the Timing of Pregnancy With Survival in Women With Breast Cancer.

    PubMed

    Iqbal, Javaid; Amir, Eitan; Rochon, Paula A; Giannakeas, Vasily; Sun, Ping; Narod, Steven A

    2017-05-01

    Increasing numbers of women experience pregnancy around the time of, or after, a diagnosis of breast cancer. Understanding the effect of pregnancy on survival in women with breast cancer will help in the counseling and treatment of these women. To compare the overall survival of women diagnosed with breast cancer during pregnancy or in the postpartum period with that of women who had breast cancer but did not become pregnant. This population-based, retrospective cohort study linked health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, comprising 7553 women aged 20 to 45 years at the time of diagnosis with invasive breast cancer, from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2014. Any pregnancy in the period from 5 years before, until 5 years after, the index date of the diagnosis of breast cancer. Women were classified into the following 4 exposure groups: no pregnancy (the referent), pregnancy before breast cancer, pregnancy-associated breast cancer, and pregnancy following breast cancer. Five-year actuarial survival rates for all exposure groups, age-adjusted and multivariable hazard ratios [HRs] of pregnancy for overall survival for all exposure groups, and time-dependent hazard ratios for women with pregnancy following breast cancer. Among the 7553 women in the study (mean age at diagnosis, 39.1 years; median, 40 years; range, 20-44 years) the 5-year actuarial survival rate was 87.5% (95% CI, 86.5%-88.4%) for women with no pregnancy, 85.3% (95% CI, 82.8%-87.8%) for women with pregnancy before breast cancer (age-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.85-1.27; P = .73), and 82.1% (95% CI, 78.3%-85.9%) for women with pregnancy-associated breast cancer (age-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.91-1.53; P = .20). The 5-year actuarial survival rate was 96.7% (95% CI, 94.1%-99.3%) for women who had pregnancy 6 months or more after diagnosis of breast cancer, vs 87.5% (95% CI, 86.5%-88.4%) for women with no pregnancy) (age-adjusted HR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.10-0.49; P

  17. Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multi-year survival rates

    SciTech Connect

    Hunke, Jes

    2009-01-01

    The recent decrease in Arctic sea ice cover has transpired with a significant loss of multi year ice. The transition to an Arctic that is populated by thinner first year sea ice has important implications for future trends in area and volume. Here we develop a reduced model for Arctic sea ice with which we investigate how the survivability of first year and multi year ice control the mean state, variability, and trends in ice area and volume.

  18. Shade improves survival rate of outplanted 2-0 red fir seedlings

    Treesearch

    Donald T. Gordon

    1970-01-01

    Effect of shade on 2-0 red fir seedlings outplanted on the Tahoe National Forest, central California, was studied by comparing five treatments: no shade, low shade for 1 year and for 2 years, and high shade for 1 year and for 2 years. Seedlings benefited from shading-even under apparently excellent survival conditions in the first season. The extra cost of artificial...

  19. Effect of silver nanoparticles on the metabolic rate, hematological response, and survival of juvenile white shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei.

    PubMed

    Juarez-Moreno, Karla; Mejía-Ruiz, Claudio Humberto; Díaz, Fernando; Reyna-Verdugo, Horacio; Re, Ana Denisse; Vazquez-Felix, Edgar F; Sánchez-Castrejón, Edna; Mota-Morales, Josué D; Pestryakov, Alexey; Bogdanchikova, Nina

    2017-02-01

    White spot syndrome virus (WSSV) is highly lethal and contagious in shrimps; its outbreaks causes an economic crisis for aquaculture. Several attempts have been made to treat this disease; however, to date, there is no effective cure. Because of their antimicrobial activities, silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) are the most studied nanomaterial. Although the antiviral properties of AgNPs have been studied, their antiviral effect against viral infection in aquaculture has not been reported. The AgNPs tested herein are coated with polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) and possess multiple international certifications for their use in veterinary and human applications. The aim of this work was to evaluate the survival rate of juvenile white shrimps (Litopenaeus vannamei) after the intramuscular administration of AgNPs. For this, different concentrations of metallic AgNPs and PVP alone were injected into the organisms. After 96 h of administration, shrimp survival was more than 90% for all treatments. The oxygen consumption routine rate and total hemocyte count remained unaltered after AgNP injection, reflecting no stress caused. We evaluated whether AgNPs had an antiviral effect in shrimps infected with WSSV. The results revealed that the survival rate of WSSV-infected shrimps after AgNP administration was 80%, whereas the survival rate of untreated organisms was only 10% 96 h after infection. These results open up the possibility to explore the potential use of AgNPs as antiviral agents for the treatment of diseases in aquaculture organisms, particularly the WSSV in shrimp culture.

  20. One-year results of maxillary overdentures supported by 2 titanium-zirconium implants - implant survival rates and radiographic outcomes.

    PubMed

    Zembic, Anja; Tahmaseb, Ali; Jung, Ronald E; Wismeijer, Daniel

    2017-07-01

    To assess implant survival rates and peri-implant bone loss of 2 titanium-zirconium implants supporting maxillary overdentures at 1 year of loading. Twenty maxillary edentulous patients (5 women and 15 men) being dissatisfied with their complete dentures were included. In total, 40 diameter-reduced titanium-zirconium implants were placed in the anterior maxilla. Local guided bone regeneration (GBR) was allowed if the treatment did not compromise implant stability. Following 3 to 5 months of healing, implant-supported overdentures were inserted on two ball anchors. Implants and overdentures were assessed at 1, 2, 4, and 8 weeks after implant insertion and 2, 4, and 12 months after insertion of overdentures (baseline). Standardized radiographs were taken at implant loading and 1 year. Implant survival rates and bone loss were the primary outcomes. Nineteen patients (1 dropout) with 38 implants were evaluated at a mean follow-up of 1.1 years (range 1.0-1.7 years). One implant failed resulting in an implant survival rate of 97.3%. There was a significant peri-implant bone loss of the implants at 1 year of function (mean, 0.7 mm, SD = 1.1 mm; median: 0.48 mm, IQR = 0.56 mm). There was a high 1-year implant survival rate for edentulous patients receiving 2 maxillary implants and ball anchors as overdenture support. However, several implants exhibited an increased amount of bone loss of more than 2 mm. Overdentures supported by 2 maxillary implants should thus be used with caution as minimally invasive treatment for specific patients encountering problems with their upper dentures until more long-term data is available. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Correlation of Survival Rates of Anopheles dirus A (Diptera: Culicidae) with Different Infection Densities of Plasmodium cynomolgi

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-01-01

    Jones (2), and Molineaux (3) assumed that the longevity and daily survival rates of infected mosquitos are unaffected by malarial parasites. However...significantly higher for infected than for non-infected mosquitos . Also, Hacker (5) reported a significant reduction in the fecundity of mosquitos infected... longevity * Fig. 1. Schematic representation of the events for each replicate of mosquitos . sequence of a 5% solution of multivitamin syrup for the

  2. Effects of Cryptocaryon irritans infection on the survival, feeding, respiratory rate and ionic regulation of the marbled rockfish Sebastiscus marmoratus.

    PubMed

    Yin, Fei; Gong, Qiyang; Li, Yanwei; Dan, Xueming; Sun, Peng; Gao, Quanxin; Shi, Zhaohong; Peng, Shiming; Li, Anxing

    2014-02-01

    To clarify the effects of a Cryptocaryon irritans infection on the physiological functions of the marbled rockfish Sebastiscus marmoratus, this study utilized C. irritans at concentrations of 2500; 5000; 7500; 10,000; 20,000; and 30,000 theronts/fish to infect marbled rockfish weighing 45 ± 3 g. The survival rate, food intake, respiratory rate, serum ion concentrations and gill Na+/K+-ATPase activity were determined. With the increase of the infection concentration and the passage of time, the survival rate of the rockfish gradually decreased. The groups infected with more than 5000 theronts/fish had stopped feeding within 4 days. The respiratory rates of the fish in the groups infected with 2500 and 5000 theronts/fish initially increased and then decreased. In contrast, the respiratory rate of the fish in the groups infected with more than 7500 theronts/fish was elevated to levels significantly higher than the control group after 12 h. The Na+/K+-ATPase activity and serum Na+ and Cl- concentrations increased with increasing infection concentration. In conclusion, the physiological functions of the fish infected with low concentrations of C. irritans can be effectively restored, whereas a high concentration infection induced severe stress. The declined food intake and accelerated respiratory rate could be useful for an early warning system as important indicators.

  3. Comparing the survival rate of juvenile Chinook salmon migrating through hydropower systems using injectable and surgical acoustic transmitters

    DOE PAGES

    Deng, Zhiqun D.; Martinez, J. J.; Li, H.; ...

    2017-02-21

    Acoustic telemetry is one of the primary technologies for studying the behavior and survival of fishes throughout the world. The size and performance of the transmitters is still the key limiting factor despite that considerable effort has been expended to understand the biological effects of implantation of acoustic transmitters in yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon. The newly developed injectable transmitter is the first active acoustic tag that can be implanted via injection instead of surgery. It also lasts more than four times longer than the commercially-available transmitters. A two-part field study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the injectablemore » transmitter and its effect on the survival of implanted fish. The injectable transmitter performed well and similarly to the other commercially-available transmitters tested. Snake River subyearling Chinook salmon smolts implanted with the injectable tag had a higher survival probability from release to each of 11 downstream detection arrays than concurrent releases of fish surgically implanted with commercially-available tags. In addition, reach-specific survival estimates were significantly higher for the injectable group in three of the eleven reaches examined. Overall, the injectable group had a 0.263 (SE = 0.017) survival probability over the entire 500 km study area compared to 0.199 (0.012) for the surgically implanted group. The differences in survival may have been caused by warm water temperatures and higher rates of infection experienced by the surgically implanted group due to the presence of sutures acting as an attachment site for pathogens. The reduction in size and ability to implant the new transmitter via injection has further reduced the tag or tagging effect bias associated with studying small fishes. As a result, the information gathered with this new technology is helping minimize the impact of dams on fish, leading to more environmentally sustainable energy systems.« less

  4. Effects of scaffold surface morphology on cell adhesion and survival rate in vitreous cryopreservation of tenocyte-scaffold constructs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhi; Qing, Quan; Chen, Xi; Liu, Cheng-Jun; Luo, Jing-Cong; Hu, Jin-Lian; Qin, Ting-Wu

    2016-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of scaffold surface morphology on cell adhesion and survival rate in vitreous cryopreservation of tenocyte-scaffold constructs. Tenocytes were obtained from tail tendons of rats. Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) was used to fabricate three types of scaffolds with varying surface morphological characteristics, i.e., smooth, micro-grooved, and porous surfaces, respectively. The tenocytes were seeded on the surfaces of the scaffolds to form tenocyte-scaffold constructs. The constructs were cryopreserved in a vitreous cryoprotectant (CPA) with a multi-step protocol. The cell adhesion to scaffolds was observed with electronic scanning microscopy (SEM). The elongation index of the living tenocytes and ratio of live/dead cell number were examined based on a live/dead dual fluorescent staining technique, and the survival rate of tenocytes was studied with flow cytometry (FC). The results showed the shapes of tenocytes varied between the different groups: flat or polygonal (on smooth surface), spindle (on micro-grooved surface), and spindle or ellipse (on porous surface). After thawing, the porous surface got the most living tenocytes and a higher survival rate, suggesting its potential application for vitreous cryopreservation of engineered tendon constructs.

  5. The Effect of Elevated CO2 and Temperature on the Hatch Rate and Survival of Estuarine Forage Fish

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merlo, L. R.; Gobler, C.

    2016-02-01

    The World Oceans are acidifying and warming, yet little is known regarding how these processes will combine to impact fish populations. In estuaries, microbial respiration of eutrophication-enhanced organic matter can create elevated CO2 levels during late spring and summer seasons when thermal extremes can occur and temperate fish spawn. Here, we report on experiments that exposed fish embryos (e.g. Menidia beryllina, inland silverside) to normal and elevated CO2 (400 and 2,000 ppm) and the range of temperatures experienced within temperate estuaries during the spawning season (16 - 30C). Fish survival and growth rates were quantified from hatching through early life, larval stages. Temperature controlled egg hatching times, with elevated temperatures leading to more rapid hatch rates. Elevated levels of CO2 significantly depressed post-hatch survival of fish. Survival rates of fish exposed to elevated CO2 at lower than ideal temperatures were significantly lower than predicted by either variable individually indicating the ability of these stressors to synergistically interact. Since embryonic stages have been identified as being highly sensitive to acidification, this finding may be associated with the extended exposure of eggs to high CO2 at lower temperatures. The physiological mechanisms driving experimental trends and broader ecological implications of the study will be discussed.

  6. Two years survival rate of Class II ART restorations in primary molars using two ways to avoid saliva contamination.

    PubMed

    Carvalho, Thiago Saads; Sampaio, Fábio Correia; Diniz, Alexandre; Bönecker, Marcelo; Van Amerongen, Willem Evert

    2010-11-01

    To compare the survival rates of Class II Atraumatic Restorative Treatment (ART) restorations placed in primary molars using cotton rolls or rubber dam as isolation methods. A total of 232 children, 6-7 years old, both genders, were selected having one primary molar with proximal dentine lesion. The children were randomly assigned into two groups: control group with Class II ART restoration made using cotton rolls and experimental group using rubber dam. The restorations were evaluated by eight calibrated evaluators (Kappa > 0.8) after 6, 12, 18 and 24 months. A total of 48 (20.7%) children were considered dropout, after 24 months. The cumulative survival rate after 6, 12, 18 and 24 months was 61.4%, 39.0%, 29.1% and 18.0%, respectively for the control group, and 64.1%, 55.1%, 40.1% and 32.1%, respectively for the rubber dam group. The log rank test for censored data showed no statistical significant difference between the groups (P = 0.07). The univariate Cox Regression showed no statistical significant difference after adjusting for independent variables (P > 0.05). Both groups had similar survival rates, and after 2 years, the use of rubber dam does not increase the success of Class II ART restorations significantly. © 2010 The Authors. International Journal of Paediatric Dentistry © 2010 BSPD, IAPD and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  7. Why have fatality rates among older drivers declined? The relative contributions of changes in survivability and crash involvement.

    PubMed

    Cicchino, Jessica B

    2015-10-01

    This study examined the trend in fatality rates per vehicle miles traveled (VMT) among older drivers relative to middle-aged drivers and quantified the contributions of changes in crash involvement and survivability to this trend. Using U.S. national databases, changes in driver deaths per crash involvement (marker of death risk when involved in a crash) and crash involvements per VMT (marker of crash risk) from 1995-1998 to 2005-2008 among older drivers aged 70 and over relative to changes among middle-aged drivers aged 35-54 were computed. The contributions of these components to the relative changes in older drivers' fatality rates per VMT were calculated using the decomposition methodology. Fatality rates per VMT declined more among older drivers than among middle-aged drivers over the study period. Relative to middle-aged drivers, drivers aged 75 and older experienced large declines in crash risk and modest declines in death risk. Relative declines in crash risk accounted for 68-74% of the larger decline in fatalities per VMT among drivers aged 75 and older compared with middle-aged drivers. Drivers aged 70-74 experienced modest relative declines in crash risk and death risk. Declines in death risk among drivers aged 75 and older relative to middle-aged drivers were much larger in side-impact crashes; improvements in crash survivability accounted for nearly half of the relative decline in fatality rates in these crashes. Relative survivability did not change significantly in frontal impacts. Higher death risk was more important than higher crash risk in explaining older drivers' elevated fatality rates per VMT relative to middle-aged drivers during 1995-1998, and the contribution of heightened death risk was even greater during 2005-2008. Many factors may have reduced crash involvements among drivers 75 and older, including changes in travel patterns, health, and roadway design. In side impacts, side airbags and reduced passenger vehicle incompatibility may

  8. Breast preservation versus mastectomy--recurrence and survival rates of primary breast cancer patients treated at the UFK Bonn.

    PubMed

    Schmolling, J; Maus, B; Rezek, D; Fimmers, R; Höller, T; Schüller, H; Krebs, D

    1997-01-01

    The aim of this retrospective long-term analysis was to evaluate the approach of breast conservation in the light of the results obtained, on the basis of mastectomy, in patients with early breast carcinoma. Additionally, the effect of internal mammary and supraclavicular radiotherapy was analyzed. Therefore, local-regional recurrence (LRR) and survival rates were examined in 411 patients with T1 and T2 stages who had undergone either breast-preserving surgery with radiation or mastectomy. Individual risk factors such as nodal status, lymphangiosis carcinomatosa and age of the patients were evaluated, too. The rate of local-regional recurrence in patients who were treated by mastectomy and conservative surgery was 9.2% and 11.0%, respectively, with relapse happening earlier in the latter group (median of 16 vs. 24 months). Survival rates, however, were not different in the two groups. Tumour stage and nodal status had no influence on the local-regional recurrence rate in either group. In connection with lymphangiosis carcinomatosa, however, the rate increased to 14.5% (mastectomy) and 19.0% (breast-preserving surgery), respectively. Patients < or = 40 years had an even higher risk of LRR, with 20.6% when they underwent mastectomy and 30.8% following breast conservation. Internal mammary and supraclavicular radiotherapy had no positive effect on the survival rates, neither in the mastectomy nor in the breast conservation group. As a conclusion, in more than 60% of all T1 stages. and more than 50% of all T2 stages, the therapeutic concept of breast preservation seems to be justified.

  9. The economic value of fatal and non-fatal occupational risks in Mexico City using actuarial- and perceived-risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Hammitt, James K; Ibarrarán, María Eugenia

    2006-12-01

    Compensating wage differentials are used to estimate marginal rates of substitution between income and both fatal and non-fatal occupational-injury risks in the Mexico City metropolitan area. Data are obtained by in-person survey of almost 600 workers and include workers' perceived risks of fatal and non-fatal occupational injury supplemented by actuarial-risk estimates from government statistics. Results using both actuarial- and perceived-risk estimates are reasonably consistent. Estimates of the value per statistical life are between 235,000 US dollars and 325,000 US dollars and estimates of the value per statistical non-fatal injury are between 3500 US dollars and 11,000 US dollars (2002 US dollars). These values are much smaller than corresponding estimates for higher-income countries but are compatible with the small number of prior estimates for lower-income countries.

  10. Survival rates of infants with birth weights between 501 and 1,000 g. Improvement by excluding certain categories of cases.

    PubMed

    Kitchen, W H; Murton, L J

    1985-05-01

    Reported survival rates of infants with birth weights under 1,001 g vary greatly; by implication, high survival rates may be used as a measure of the standard of perinatal care. To illustrate the importance of precisely defining the population sample, we determined the survival rate to 2 years of 238 infants with birth weights of 501 to 1,000 g, born between 1977 and 1980. The rate was 33.6%; however, by excluding certain categories of patients, the survival rate was augmented to 46.9%. There were 36 infants who died in the delivery room and an additional 34 who died before the age of 3 hours in the intensive care unit; together they contributed 29.4% to the total mortality of 66.4%. This group is especially liable to influence reported survival rates. Although exclusion of patients is legitimate, the criteria need to be precisely defined if data between centers are to be compared.

  11. Comparison of drug survival rates for tumor necrosis factor antagonists in rheumatoid arthritis

    PubMed Central

    Martínez-Santana, Virginia; González-Sarmiento, E; Calleja-Hernández, MA; Sánchez-Sánchez, T

    2013-01-01

    Background Persistence of anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an overall marker of treatment success. Objective To assess the survival of anti-TNF treatment and to define the potential predictors of drug discontinuation in RA, in order to verify the adequacy of current practices. Design An observational, descriptive, longitudinal, retrospective study. Setting The Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain. Patients RA patients treated with anti-TNF therapy between January 2011 and January 2012. Measurements Demographic information and therapy assessments were gathered from medical and pharmaceutical records. Data is expressed as means (standard deviations) for quantitative variables and frequency distribution for qualitative variables. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis was used to assess persistence, and Cox multivariate regression models were used to assess potential predictors of treatment discontinuation. Results In total, 126 treatment series with infliximab (n = 53), etanercept (n = 51) or adalimumab (n = 22) were administered to 91 patients. Infliximab has mostly been used as a first-line treatment, but it was the drug with the shortest time until a change of treatment. Significant predictors of drug survival were: age; the anti-TNF agent; and the previous response to an anti-TNF drug. Limitation The small sample size. Conclusion The overall efficacy of anti-TNF drugs diminishes with time, with infliximab having the shortest time until a change of treatment. The management of biologic therapy in patients with RA should be reconsidered in order to achieve disease control with a reduction in costs. PMID:24023512

  12. 78 FR 64943 - Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rate, and Annual Deductible...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-10-30

    ... of the Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 (TEFRA) (Pub. L. 97-248) suspended this... beneficiary filing an individual income tax return, and $170,000 for a beneficiary filing a joint tax return... of Part B coverage for an aged enrollee. However, depending on income and tax filing status, a...

  13. 75 FR 68790 - Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rate, and Annual Deductible...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-11-09

    ... over) and disabled (under age 65) beneficiaries enrolled in Part B of the Medicare Supplementary... cost of Part B for each disabled enrollee (under age 65). The Part B deductible to be paid by enrollees... applicable for 2011 are $230.70 for enrollees age 65 and over and $266.30 for disabled enrollees under age 65...

  14. Sex difference in the survival rate of wild brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) experimentally challenged with bovine tuberculosis.

    PubMed

    Rouco, Carlos; Richardson, Kyle S; Buddle, Bryce M; French, Nigel P; Tompkins, Daniel M

    2016-08-01

    The main wildlife reservoir of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in New Zealand is the introduced brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), with spillover of infection from possums to livestock being regarded as the largest barrier to eradicating TB from the country. Past studies have experimentally challenged possums with Mycobacterium bovis (the causative agent of TB) to quantify infection parameters. However, the challenge models used are invariably non-representative of natural infection due to their resulting in much faster rates, and different clinical patterns of disease progression. We monitored the survival of 16 wild free-living possums, fitted with VHF mortality collars and experimentally challenged with a new model, out to six months post-challenge. The aim was to assess whether the new model does indeed result in an ongoing pathogenesis trajectory that is more reflective of natural TB in possums. The mean survival period of challenged possums (~4.6months) did not differ from that estimated for wild free-living possums with naturally acquired TB. In addition, and unexpectedly, infected males survived on average for five weeks longer than females. This significant difference has not been previously observed in experimental trials with other TB/possum challenge models. If this is reflective of natural disease (as is the survival period produced by the percutaneous challenge model), TB infected males in the wild may be generating more secondary cases of infection than infected females. This insight has important implications for understanding the dynamics of, and managing, the disease in its New Zealand wildlife reservoir.

  15. Saengshik, a formulated health food, decreases blood glucose and increases survival rate in streptozotocin-induced diabetic rats.

    PubMed

    Kim, Meesook; Kim, Eul-Sang; Park, Mi-Hyoun; Hwang, Sung-Joo; Jeong, Yoonhwa

    2004-01-01

    Saengshik is a Korean "non-cooked food" that is commercially produced and marketed. Ingredients in commercial Saengshik include grains, vegetables, fruits, mushrooms, sea plants, and various functional botanicals. This study investigated the effects of Saengshik on the survival rate of streptozotocin (STZ)-induced diabetic rats. Male Sprague-Dawley rats weighing around 190 g were randomly assigned to one of the three experimental groups: a healthy normal group (NC) and two groups with STZ-induced diabetes and fed either control diet (DC) or Saengshik diet (DS). Rats in all groups were supplied with a diet of equal energy. The animals were maintained on an experimental diet for 168 days in experiment I and for 42 days in experiment II. The body weight in the DS rats decreased less than in the DC rats in both experiments I and II. There was a trend for blood glucose level in the DS group to decrease during the experimental period in both experiments I and II. A survival rate of 50% was reached on day 49 in the DC group and on day 118 in the DS group. All rats in the DC group died by day 140, while 50% of the rats in the DS group were still alive on day 168, when experiment I was terminated. In experiment II, 50% of the DC group and 90% of the DS group survived at day 42. Saengshik did not have any influence on cholesterol levels, thiobarbituric acid-reactive substances, and activities of superoxide dismutase and glutathione peroxidase. These results suggest that blood glucose concentrations and the survival rate are positively affected by Saengshik feeding in diabetic rats.

  16. Survival rate of human oocytes and pregnancy outcome after vitrification using slush nitrogen in assisted reproductive technologies.

    PubMed

    Yoon, Tae Ki; Lee, Dong Ryul; Cha, Soo Kyung; Chung, Hyung Min; Lee, Woo Sik; Cha, Kwang Yul

    2007-10-01

    To report the survival rate of oocytes and the rate of successful pregnancies obtained from super-rapid cooling of oocytes using slush nitrogen (SN(2)). Prospective clinical research. A university-affiliated hospital. Twenty-eight infertile women who underwent 30 cycles of IVF-ET using previously vitrified oocytes. Oocytes were vitrified by super-rapid cooling using SN(2). Morphological normality of thawed oocytes and clinical outcome. In 30 cycles of ovarian stimulation for IVF, 364 surplus oocytes from 28 patients were vitrified using SN(2). Three hundred two (85.1% +/- 2.9%) of the oocytes survived after warming. Fertilization and cleavage rates were 77.4% +/- 3.5% (168/218) and 94.3% +/- 2.1% (158/168), respectively. Thirteen pregnancies (43.3%) resulted from 30 uterine transfers of 120 embryos with an implantation rate of 14.2% (17/120). There were no differences between the pregnancy rate after vitrification/warming and that obtained from routine noncryopreserved oocytes. The present report suggests that super-rapid cooling may improve the clinical efficacy of human oocyte vitrification and may be a valuable tool for human assisted reproductive technologies.

  17. Survival rates and worker compensation expenses in a national cohort of Mexican workers with permanent occupational disability caused by diabetes.

    PubMed

    Ascencio-Montiel, Iván de Jesús; Kumate-Rodríguez, Jesús; Borja-Aburto, Víctor Hugo; Fernández-Garate, José Esteban; Konik-Comonfort, Selene; Macías-Pérez, Oliver; Campos-Hernández, Ángel; Rodríguez-Vázquez, Héctor; López-Roldán, Verónica Miriam; Zitle-García, Edgar Jesús; Solís-Cruz, María Del Carmen; Velázquez-Ramírez, Ismael; Aguilar-Jiménez, Miriam; Villa-Caballero, Leonel; Cisneros-González, Nelly

    2016-09-01

    Permanent occupational disability is one of the most severe consequences of diabetes that impedes the performance of usual working activities among economically active individuals. Survival rates and worker compensation expenses have not previously been examined among Mexican workers. We aimed to describe the worker compensation expenses derived from pension payments and also to examine the survival rates and characteristics associated with all-cause mortality, in a cohort of 34,014 Mexican workers with permanent occupational disability caused by diabetes during the years 2000-2013 at the Mexican Institute of Social Security. A cross-sectional analysis study was conducted using national administrative records data from the entire country, regarding permanent occupational disability medical certification, pension payment and vital status. Survival rates were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CI) in order to assess the cohort characteristics and all-cause mortality risk. Total expenses derived from pension payments for the period were accounted for in U.S. dollars (USD, 2013). There were 12,917 deaths in 142,725.1 person-years. Median survival time was 7.26 years. After multivariate adjusted analysis, males (HR, 1.39; 95 % CI, 1.29-1.50), agricultural, forestry, and fishery workers (HR, 1.41; 95 % CI, 1.15-1.73) and renal complications (HR, 3.49; 95 % CI, 3.18-3.83) had the highest association with all-cause mortality. The all-period expenses derived from pension payments amounted to $777.78 million USD (2013), and showed a sustained increment: from $58.28 million USD in 2000 to $111.62 million USD in 2013 (percentage increase of 91.5 %). Mexican workers with permanent occupational disability caused by diabetes had a median survival of 7.26 years, and those with renal complications showed the lowest survival in the cohort

  18. Survival thresholds and mortality rates in adaptive dynamics: conciliating deterministic and stochastic simulations.

    PubMed

    Perthame, Benoît; Gauduchon, Mathias

    2010-09-01

    Deterministic population models for adaptive dynamics are derived mathematically from individual-centred stochastic models in the limit of large populations. However, it is common that numerical simulations of both models fit poorly and give rather different behaviours in terms of evolution speeds and branching patterns. Stochastic simulations involve extinction phenomenon operating through demographic stochasticity, when the number of individual 'units' is small. Focusing on the class of integro-differential adaptive models, we include a similar notion in the deterministic formulations, a survival threshold, which allows phenotypical traits in the population to vanish when represented by few 'individuals'. Based on numerical simulations, we show that the survival threshold changes drastically the solution; (i) the evolution speed is much slower, (ii) the branching patterns are reduced continuously and (iii) these patterns are comparable to those obtained with stochastic simulations. The rescaled models can also be analysed theoretically. One can recover the concentration phenomena on well-separated Dirac masses through the constrained Hamilton-Jacobi equation in the limit of small mutations and large observation times.

  19. Evaluation of ultrastructure and random effects band recovery models for estimating relationships between survival and harvest rates in exploited populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Otis, D.L.; White, Gary C.

    2004-01-01

    Increased population survival rate after an episode of seasonal exploitation is considered a type of compensatory population response. Lack of an increase is interpreted as evidence that exploitation results in added annual mortality in the population. Despite its importance to management of exploited species, there are limited statistical techniques for comparing relative support for these two alternative models. For exploited bird species, the most common technique is to use a fixed effect, deterministic ultrastructure model incorporated into band recovery models to estimate the relationship between harvest and survival rate. We present a new likelihood-based technique within a framework that assumes that survival and harvest are random effects that covary through time. We conducted a Monte Carlo simulation study under this framework to evaluate the performance of these two techniques. The ultrastructure models performed poorly in all simulated scenarios, due mainly to pathological distributional properties. The random effects estimators and their associated estimators of precision had relatively small negative bias under most scenarios, and profile likelihood intervals achieved nominal coverage. We suggest that the random effects estimation method approach has many advantages compared to the ultrastructure models, and that evaluation of robustness and generalization to more complex population structures are topics for additional research. ?? 2004 Museu de Cie??ncies Naturals.

  20. Prenatal Stress Exposure Generates Higher Early Survival and Smaller Size without Impacting Developmental Rate in a Pacific Salmon.

    PubMed

    Capelle, Pauline M; Semeniuk, Christina A D; Sopinka, Natalie M; Heath, John W; Love, Oliver P

    2016-12-01

    Prenatal exposure to elevated glucocorticoids can act as a signal of environmental stress, resulting in modifications to offspring phenotype. While "negative" phenotypic effects (i.e., smaller size, slower growth) are often reported, recent research coupling phenotype with other fitness-related traits has suggested positive impacts of prenatal stress. Using captive Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), we treated eggs with biologically relevant cortisol levels-low (300 ng mL(-1) ), high (1,000 ng mL(-1) ), or control (0 ng mL(-1) )-to examine the early-life impacts of maternally transferred stress hormones on offspring. Specifically, we measured early survival, rate of development, and multiple measures of morphology. Low and high cortisol dosing of eggs resulted in significantly higher survival compared to controls (37% and 24% higher, respectively). Fish reared from high dose eggs were structurally smaller compared to control fish, but despite this variation in structural size, exposure to elevated cortisol did not impact developmental rate. These results demonstrate that elevations in egg cortisol can positively influence offspring fitness through an increase in early survival while also altering phenotype at a critical life-history stage. Overall, these results suggest that exposure to prenatal stress may not always produce apparently negative impacts on offspring fitness and further proposes that complex phenotypic responses should be examined in relevant environmental conditions. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Estimating Survival Rates in Engineering for Community College Transfer Students Using Grades in Calculus and Physics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Laugerman, Marcia; Shelley, Mack; Rover, Diane; Mickelson, Steve

    2015-01-01

    This study uses a unique synthesized set of data for community college students transferring to engineering by combining several cohorts of longitudinal data along with transcript-level data, from both the Community College and the University, to measure success rates in engineering. The success rates are calculated by developing Kaplan-Meier…

  2. Factors affecting sperm recovery rates and survival after centrifugation of equine semen.

    PubMed

    Ferrer, M S; Lyle, S K; Eilts, B E; Eljarrah, A H; Paccamonti, D L

    2012-11-01

    Conventional centrifugation protocols result in important sperm losses during removal of the supernatant. In this study, the effect of centrifugation force (400 or 900 × g), duration (5 or 10 min), and column height (20 or 40 mL; Experiment 1); sperm concentration (25, 50, and 100 × 10(6)/mL; Experiment 2), and centrifugation medium (EZ-Mixin CST [Animal Reproduction Systems, Chino, CA, USA], INRA96 [IMV Technologies, Maple Grove, MN, USA], or VMDZ [Partnar Animal Health, Port Huron, MI, USA]; Experiment 3) on sperm recovery and survival after centrifugation and cooling and storage were evaluated. Overall, sperm survival was not affected by the combination of centrifugation protocol and cooling. Total sperm yield was highest after centrifugation for 10 min at 400 × g in 20-mL columns (95.6 ± 5%, mean ± SD) or 900 × g in 20-mL (99.2 ± 0.8%) or 40-mL (91.4 ± 4.5%) columns, and at 900 × g for 5 min in 20-mL columns (93.8 ± 8.9%; P < 0.0001). Total (TMY) and progressively motile sperm yield followed a similar pattern (P < 0.0001). Sperm yields were not significantly different among samples centrifuged at various sperm concentrations. However, centrifugation at 100 × 10(6)/mL resulted in significantly lower total sperm yield (83.8 ± 10.7%) and TMY (81.7 ± 6.8%) compared with noncentrifuged semen. Centrifugation in VMDZ resulted in significantly lower TMY (69.3 ± 22.6%), progressively motile sperm yield (63.5 ± 18.2%), viable yield (60.9 ± 36.5%), and survival of progressively motile sperm after cooling (21 ± 10.8%) compared with noncentrifuged semen. In conclusion, centrifuging volumes of ≤ 20 mL minimized sperm losses with conventional protocols. With 40-mL columns, it may be recommended to increase the centrifugal force to 900 × g for 10 min and dilute the semen to a sperm concentration of 25 to 50 × 10(6)/mL in a milk- or fractionated milk-based medium. The semen extender VMDZ did not seem well suited for centrifugation of equine semen.

  3. Effect of eggshell temperature and oxygen concentration on survival rate and nutrient utilization in chicken embryos.

    PubMed

    Molenaar, R; Meijerhof, R; van den Anker, I; Heetkamp, M J W; van den Borne, J J G C; Kemp, B; van den Brand, H

    2010-09-01

    Environmental conditions during incubation such as temperature and O(2) concentration affect embryo development that may be associated with modifications in nutrient partitioning. Additionally, prenatal conditions can affect postnatal nutrient utilization. Using broiler chicken embryos, we studied the effects of eggshell temperature (EST; 37.8 or 38.9 degrees C) and O(2) (17, 21, or 25%) applied from d 7 until 19 of incubation in a 2 x 3 factorial design. Effects of these factors on embryonic survival, development, and nutrient utilization were assessed in the pre- and posthatch period. High EST reduced yolk-free body mass compared with normal EST (36.1 vs. 37.7 g), possibly through reduced incubation duration (479 vs. 487 h) and lower efficiency of protein utilization for growth (83.6 vs. 86.8%). Increasing O(2) increased yolk-free body mass (from 35.7 to 38.3 g) at 12 h after emergence from the eggshell, but differences were larger between the low and normal O(2) than between the normal and high O(2). This might be due to the lower efficiency of nutrient utilization for growth at low O(2). However, the effects of O(2) that were found at 12 h were less pronounced at 48 h posthatch. When O(2) was shifted to 21% for all treatments at d 19 of incubation, embryos incubated at low O(2) used nutrients more efficiently than those incubated at normal or high O(2). An additional negative effect on survival and chick development occurred when embryos were exposed to a combination of high EST and low O(2). Possible explanations include reduced nutrient availability for hatching, decreased body development to fulfill the energy-demanding hatching process, and higher incidence of malpositions. In conclusion, EST and O(2) during incubation affect nutrient utilization for growth, which may explain differences in survival and development. Embryos raised under suboptimal environmental conditions in the prenatal period may develop adaptive mechanisms that still continue in the

  4. Bladder Preservation for Localized Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer: The Survival Impact of Local Utilization Rates of Definitive Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Kozak, Kevin R.; Hamidi, Maryam; Manning, Matthew; Moody, John S.

    2012-06-01

    Purpose: This study examines the management and outcomes of muscle-invasive bladder cancer in the United States. Methods and Materials: Patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer diagnosed between 1988 and 2006 were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were classified according to three mutually exclusive treatment categories based on the primary initial treatment: no local management, radiotherapy, or surgery. Overall survival was assessed with Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox models based on multiple factors including treatment utilization patterns. Results: The study population consisted of 26,851 patients. Age, sex, race, tumor grade, histology, and geographic location were associated with differences in treatment (all p < 0.01). Patients receiving definitive radiotherapy tended to be older and have less differentiated tumors than patients undergoing surgery (RT, median age 78 years old and 90.6% grade 3/4 tumors; surgery, median age 71 years old and 77.1% grade 3/4 tumors). No large shifts in treatment were seen over time, with most patients managed with surgical resection (86.3% for overall study population). Significant survival differences were observed according to initial treatment: median survival, 14 months with no definitive local treatment; 17 months with radiotherapy; and 43 months for surgery. On multivariate analysis, differences in local utilization rates of definitive radiotherapy did not demonstrate a significant effect on overall survival (hazard ratio, 1.002; 95% confidence interval, 0.999-1.005). Conclusions: Multiple factors influence the initial treatment strategy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer, but definitive radiotherapy continues to be used infrequently. Although patients who undergo surgery fare better, a multivariable model that accounted for patient and tumor characteristics found no survival detriment to the utilization of definitive radiotherapy. These results support continued

  5. Unchanged survival rates of Shadoo knockout mice after infection with mouse-adapted scrapie

    PubMed Central

    Li, Sha; Ju, Chuanjing; Han, Chao; Li, Zhongyi; Liu, Wensen; Ye, Xuemin; Xu, Jing; Xulong, Liang; Wang, Xiong; Chen, Zhibao; Meng, Keyin; Wan, Jiayu

    2014-01-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated that Shadoo (Sho), a GPI-linked glycoprotein encoded by the Sprn gene with a membrane localization similar to PrPC, is reduced in the brains of rodents with terminal prion disease. To determine the functional significance of Sho in prion disease pathogenesis, Sho-deficient mice were generated by gene targeting. Sho knockout and control wild-type (WT) mice were infected with themouse-adapted scrapie strains 22L or RML. No significant differences in survival, the incubation period of prion disease or other disease features were observed between Sho mutant and WT mice. In this model of prion disease, Sho removal had no effect on disease pathogenesis. PMID:25495671

  6. Effective Treatment for Improving the Survival Rate of Raccoon Dogs Infected with Sarcoptes scabiei

    PubMed Central

    KIDO, Nobuhide; OMIYA, Tomoko; KAMEGAYA, Chihiro; WADA, Yuko; TAKAHASHI, Maya; YAMAMOTO, Yasuhiko

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT Sarcoptes scabiei is one of the important external parasites. Although ivermectin is the recommended treatment, many raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides) that were rescued and brought to the Kanazawa Zoological Gardens (Yokohama, Japan) have died because of S. scabiei, even after receiving single ivermectin treatment. Therefore, supportive treatment should be required. The present study revealed the number of animals that survived was greater after the administration of ivermectin along with an antibiotic for all raccoon dogs, as well as following the administration of fluid therapy to the debilitated raccoon dogs infected with S. scabiei, immediately after the rescue. During the initial period, treatment to improve the general clinical condition was required prior to deworming treatment for S. scabiei. PMID:24813465

  7. Estimation of Flattened Musk Turtle (Sternotherus depressus) survival, recapture, and recovery rate during and after a disease outbreak

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fonnesbeck, C.J.; Dodd, C.K.

    2003-01-01

    We estimated survivorship, recapture probabilities and recovery rates in a threatened population of Flattened Musk Turtles (Sternotherus depressus) through a disease outbreak in Alabama in 1985. We evaluated a set of models for the demographic effects of disease by analyzing recaptures and recoveries simultaneously. Multiple-model inference suggested survival was temporally dynamic, whereas recapture probability was sex- and age-specifc. Biweekly survivorship declined from 98-99% before to 82-88% during the outbreak. Live recapture was twice as likely for male turtles relative to juveniles or females, whereas dead recoveries varied only slightly by sex and age. Our results suggest modest reduction in survival over a relatively short time period may severely affect population status.

  8. Overweight and obesity predict better overall survival rates in cancer patients with distant metastases.

    PubMed

    Tsang, Ngan Ming; Pai, Ping Ching; Chuang, Chi Cheng; Chuang, Wen Ching; Tseng, Chen Kan; Chang, Kai Ping; Yen, Tzu Chen; Lin, Jen Der; Chang, Joseph Tung Chieh

    2016-04-01

    Recent studies conducted in patients with chronic diseases have reported an inverse association between body mass index (BMI) and mortality. However, the question as to whether BMI may predict prognosis in patients with metastatic cancer remains open. We therefore designed the current retrospective study to investigate the potential association between BMI and overall survival (OS) in patients with distant metastases (DM) and a favorable performance status. Between 2000 and 2012, a total of 4010 cancer patients with DM who required radiotherapy (RT) and had their BMI measured at the initiation of RT were identified. The relation between BMI and OS was examined by univariate and multivariable analysis. The median OS time was 3.23 months (range: 0.1-122.17) for underweight patients, 6.08 months (range: 0.03-149.46) for normal-weight patients, 7.99 months (range: 0.07-158.01) for overweight patients, and 12.49 months (range, 0.2-164.1) for obese patients (log-rank: P < 0.001). Compared with normal-weight patients, both obese (HR = 0.676; 95% P < 0.001) and overweight individuals (HR = 0.84; P < 0.001) had a reduced risk of all-cause mortality in multivariable analysis. Conversely, underweight patients had a significantly higher risk of death from all causes (HR = 1.41; P < 0.001). Overweight and obesity are independent predictors of better OS in metastatic patients with a good performance status. Increased BMI may play a role to identify metastatic patients with superior survival outcome and exhibit a potential to encourage aggressive management in those patients even with metastases. © 2016 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. ENDOSCOPIC ULTRASONOGRAPHY IN ESOPHAGEAL CANCER LEADS TO IMPROVED SURVIVAL RATES: RESULTS FROM A POPULATION-BASED STUDY

    PubMed Central

    Wani, Sachin; Das, Ananya; Rastogi, Amit; Drahos, Jennifer; Ricker, Winifred; Parsons, Ruth; Bansal, Ajay; Yen, Roy; Hosford, Lindsay; Jankowski, Meghan; Sharma, Prateek; Cook, Michael B.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims The advantages of endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) and computed tomography-positron emission tomography (CT-PET) in relation to survival in esophageal cancer (EC) patients are unclear. This study aimed to assess the effect of EUS, CT-PET and its combination on overall survival relative to cases not receiving these procedures. Methods Patients aged ≥ 66 years diagnosed with EC were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare linked database. Cases were split into four analytic groups: EUS only (n=318), CT-PET only (853), EUS+CT-PET (189) and “no EUS or CT-PET” (2,439). Survival times were estimated by Kaplan-Meier method and compared by using log-rank test for each group versus the “no EUS or CT-PET” group. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare 1, 3 and 5-year survival rates. Results Kaplan-Meier analyses showed that patients undergoing EUS, CT-PET and EUS+CT-PET had improved survival for all stages, all compared with “no EUS or CT-PET”, with the exception of stage 0 disease. Receipt of EUS increased the likelihood of receiving endoscopic therapies, esophagectomy and chemoradiation. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models showed that receipt of EUS was a significant predictor for improved 1-year (HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.39–0.59, p<0.0001), 3-year (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.48–0.66, p<0.0001) and 5-year (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.50–0.68) survival. Similar results were noted when results were stratified based on histology, as well as for CT-PET and EUS+CT-PET groups. Conclusions Receipt of either EUS or CT-PET alone in EC patients is associated with improved 1, 3 and 5-year survival. Future studies should identify barriers to dissemination of these staging modalities. PMID:25236485

  10. Endoscopic ultrasonography in esophageal cancer leads to improved survival rates: results from a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Wani, Sachin; Das, Ananya; Rastogi, Amit; Drahos, Jennifer; Ricker, Winifred; Parsons, Ruth; Bansal, Ajay; Yen, Roy; Hosford, Lindsay; Jankowski, Meghan; Sharma, Prateek; Cook, Michael B

    2015-01-15

    The advantages of endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) and computed tomography (CT)-positron emission tomography (PET) with respect to survival for esophageal cancer patients are unclear. This study aimed to assess the effects of EUS, CT-PET, and their combination on overall survival with respect to cases not receiving these procedures. Patients who were ≥66 years old when diagnosed with esophageal cancer were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare linked database. Cases were split into 4 analytic groups: EUS only (n = 318), CT-PET only (n = 853), EUS+CT-PET (n = 189), and no EUS or CT-PET (n = 2439). Survival times were estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method and were compared with the log-rank test for each group versus the no EUS or CT-PET group. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates. Kaplan-Meier analyses showed that EUS, CT-PET, and EUS+CT-PET patients had improved survival for all stages (with the exception of stage 0 disease) in comparison with patients undergoing no EUS or CT-PET. Receipt of EUS increased the likelihood of receiving endoscopic therapies, esophagectomy, and chemoradiation. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models showed that receipt of EUS was a significant predictor of improved 1- (hazard ratio [HR], 0.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39-0.59; P < .0001), 3- (HR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.48-0.66; P < .0001), and 5-year survival (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.50-0.68). Similar results were noted when the results were stratified on the basis of histology and for the CT-PET and EUS+CT-PET groups. Receipt of either EUS or CT-PET alone in esophageal cancer patients was associated with improved 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival. Future studies should identify barriers to the dissemination of these staging modalities. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

  11. Retrospective success and survival rates of dental implants placed with simultaneous bone augmentation in partially edentulous patients.

    PubMed

    Bazrafshan, Nima; Darby, Ivan

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the success and survival rate of dental implants placed with simultaneous hard tissue grafting. All patients treated in Royal Dental Hospital of Melbourne who had implant placement with and without guided bone regeneration (GBR) procedures were identified. Seventy-three attended a follow-up appointment. These patients were examined recording probing depth, bleeding on probing, plaque accumulation and radiographic bone loss by one examiner. Clinical and radiographic findings were compared in grafted and non-grafted groups and also analysed for years in function. Approximately 50% of implants were placed simultaneous guided bone regeneration technique. In the majority of cases, defects were filled by deproteinized bovine bone mineral and covered with collagen membrane. The range of time in function was 20-88 months with a mean 34.8 (±1.7). Seventy-nine per cent of the implants placed in anterior maxilla were placed with GBR, while only 18% in posterior mandible needed grafting procedure. The cumulative implant survival rates at the time of examination was 97.95% for both GBR and non-GBR group. The mean PPD, BOP, and Plaque index were not statistically significantly different in GBR vs. non-GBR groups two to seven years in function. However, bone loss is significantly less in GBR group 2-7 years after function. The overall success rate was around 90% after 2-7 years in function with the GBR group slightly less than the non-GBR group, but not statistically significant. For the subjects included in this retrospective study, the data demonstrate that GBR is a predictable procedure. The survival and success rates of the implants inserted with simultaneous GBR were similar, if slightly lower, to the non-grafted implants. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Examining mortality risk and rate of ageing among Polish Olympic athletes: a survival follow-up from 1924 to 2012.

    PubMed

    Lin, Yuhui; Gajewski, Antoni; Poznańska, Anna

    2016-04-18

    Population-based studies have shown that an active lifestyle reduces mortality risk. Therefore, it has been a longstanding belief that individuals who engage in frequent exercise will experience a slower rate of ageing. It is uncertain whether this widely-accepted assumption holds for intense wear-and-tear. Here, using the 88 years survival follow-up data of Polish Olympic athletes, we report for the first time on whether frequent exercise alters the rate of ageing. Longitudinal survival data of male elite Polish athletes who participated in the Olympic Games from year 1924 to 2010 were used. Deaths occurring before the end of World War II were excluded for reliable estimates. Recruited male elite athletes N=1273 were preassigned to two categorical birth cohorts--Cohort I 1890-1919; Cohort II 1920-1959--and a parametric frailty survival analysis was conducted. An event-history analysis was also conducted to adjust for medical improvements from year 1920 onwards: Cohort II. Our findings suggest (1) in Cohort I, for every threefold reduction in mortality risk, the rate of ageing decelerates by 1%; (2) socioeconomic transitions and interventions contribute to a reduction in mortality risk of 29% for the general population and 50% for Olympic athletes; (3) an optimum benefit gained for reducing the rate of ageing from competitive sports (Cohort I 0.086 (95% CI 0.047 to 0.157) and Cohort II 0.085 (95% CI 0.050 to 0.144)). This study further suggests that intensive physical training during youth should be considered as a factor to improve ageing and mortality risk parameters. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  13. Examining mortality risk and rate of ageing among Polish Olympic athletes: a survival follow-up from 1924 to 2012

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Yuhui; Gajewski, Antoni; Poznańska, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Population-based studies have shown that an active lifestyle reduces mortality risk. Therefore, it has been a longstanding belief that individuals who engage in frequent exercise will experience a slower rate of ageing. It is uncertain whether this widely-accepted assumption holds for intense wear-and-tear. Here, using the 88 years survival follow-up data of Polish Olympic athletes, we report for the first time on whether frequent exercise alters the rate of ageing. Design Longitudinal survival data of male elite Polish athletes who participated in the Olympic Games from year 1924 to 2010 were used. Deaths occurring before the end of World War II were excluded for reliable estimates. Setting and participants Recruited male elite athletes N=1273 were preassigned to two categorical birth cohorts—Cohort I 1890–1919; Cohort II 1920–1959—and a parametric frailty survival analysis was conducted. An event-history analysis was also conducted to adjust for medical improvements from year 1920 onwards: Cohort II. Results Our findings suggest (1) in Cohort I, for every threefold reduction in mortality risk, the rate of ageing decelerates by 1%; (2) socioeconomic transitions and interventions contribute to a reduction in mortality risk of 29% for the general population and 50% for Olympic athletes; (3) an optimum benefit gained for reducing the rate of ageing from competitive sports (Cohort I 0.086 (95% CI 0.047 to 0.157) and Cohort II 0.085 (95% CI 0.050 to 0.144)). Conclusions This study further suggests that intensive physical training during youth should be considered as a factor to improve ageing and mortality risk parameters. PMID:27091824

  14. Comparison of peritonitis rates and patient survival in automated and continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis: a 10-year single center experience.

    PubMed

    El-Reshaid, Wael; Al-Disawy, Hanan; Nassef, Hossameldeen; Alhelaly, Usama

    2016-09-01

    Peritonitis is a common complication in patients undergoing continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) and automated peritoneal dialysis (APD). In this retrospective study, peritonitis rates and patient survival of 180 patients on CAPD and 128 patients on APD were compared in the period from January 2005 to December 2014 at Al-Nafisi Center in Kuwait. All patients had prophylactic topical mupirocin at catheter exit site. Patients on CAPD had twin bag system with Y transfer set. The peritonitis rates were 1 in 29 months in CAPD and 1 in 38 months in APD (p < 0.05). Percentage of peritonitis free patients over 10-year period in CAPD and APD were 49 and 60%, respectively (p < 0.05). Time to develop peritonitis was 10.25 ± 3.1 months in CAPD compared to 16.1 ± 4 months in APD (p < 0.001). Relapse and recurrence rates were similar in both groups. Median patient survival in CAPD and APD groups with peritonitis was 13.1 ± 1 and 14 ± 1.4 months respectively (p = 0.3) whereas in peritonitis free patients it was 15 ± 1.4 months in CAPD and 23 ± 3.1 months in APD (p = 0.025). APD had lower incidence rate of peritonitis than CAPD. Patient survival was better in APD than CAPD in peritonitis free patients but was similar in patients who had peritonitis.

  15. Migratory behaviour and survival rates of wild northern Atlantic salmon Salmo salar post-smolts: Effects of environmental factors

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Davidsen, J.G.; Rikardsen, A.H.; Halttunen, E.; Thorstad, E.B.; Okland, F.; Letcher, B.H.; Skarhamar, J.; Naesje, T.F.

    2009-01-01

    To study smolt behaviour and survival of a northern Atlantic salmon Salmo salar population during river descent, sea entry and fjord migration, 120 wild S. salar were tagged with acoustic tags and registered at four automatic listening station arrays in the mouth of the north Norwegian River Alta and throughout the Alta Fjord. An estimated 75% of the post-smolts survived from the river mouth, through the estuary and the first 17 km of the fjord. Survival rates in the fjord varied with fork length (LF), and ranged from 97??0 to 99??5% km-1. On average, the post-smolts spent 1??5 days (36 h, range 11-365 h) travelling from the river mouth to the last fjord array, 31 km from the river mouth. The migratory speed was slower (1??8 LF s-1) in the first 4 km after sea entry compared with the next 27 km (3??0 LF s-1). Post-smolts entered the fjord more often during the high or ebbing tide (70%). There was no clear diurnal migration pattern within the river and fjord, but most of the post-smolts entered the fjord at night (66%, 2000-0800 hours), despite the 24 h daylight at this latitude. The tidal cycle, wind-induced currents and the smolts' own movements seemed to influence migratory speeds and routes in different parts of the fjord. A large variation in migration patterns, both in the river and fjord, might indicate that individuals in stochastic estuarine and marine environments are exposed to highly variable selection regimes, resulting in different responses to environmental factors on both temporal and spatial scales. Post-smolts in the northern Alta Fjord had similar early marine survival rates to those observed previously in southern fjords; however, fjord residency in the north was shorter. ?? 2009 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  16. Age, actuarial risk, and long-term recidivism in a national sample of sex offenders.

    PubMed

    Nicholaichuk, Terry P; Olver, Mark E; Gu, Deqiang; Wong, Stephen C P

    2014-10-01

    Age at release has become an increasing focus of study with regard to evaluating risk in the sex offender population and has been repeatedly shown to be an important component of the risk assessment equation. This study constitutes an extension of a study of sex offender outcomes prepared for the Evaluation Branch, Correctional Service of Canada. The entire cohort of 2,401 male federally incarcerated sexual offenders who reached their warrant expiry date (WED) within 1997/1998, 1998/1999, and 1999/2000 fiscal years were reviewed for the study. Sexual and violent reconviction information was obtained from CPIC criminal records over an average of 12.0 years (SD = 1.7) follow-up. This study focused upon the cohort of sex offenders who were 50 years or older at time of release (N = 542). They were stratified according to risk using a brief actuarial scale (BARS) comprising six binary variables. For the most part, older offenders showed low base rates of sexual recidivism regardless of the risk band into which they fell. The exception was a small group of elderly offenders (n = 20) who fell into the highest risk band, and who showed high levels of sexual recidivism. The results of this combination of cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of elderly sexual offenders may have important implications for offender management, particularly in light of the increasing numbers of offenders in Canada who fall into the over 50 age cohort.

  17. A theoretical model of the evolution of actuarial senescence under environmental stress

    PubMed Central

    Watson, H.; Cohen, A.A.; Isaksson, C.

    2015-01-01

    Free-living organisms are exposed to a wide range of stressors, all of which can disrupt components of stress-related and detoxification physiology. The subsequent accumulation of somatic damage is widely believed to play a major role in the evolution of senescence. Organisms have evolved sophisticated physiological regulatory mechanisms to maintain homeostasis in response to environmental perturbations, but these systems are likely to be constrained in their ability to optimise robustness to multiple stressors due to functional correlations among related traits. While evolutionary change can accelerate due to human ecological impacts, it remains to be understood how exposure to multiple environmental stressors could affect senescence rates and subsequently population dynamics and fitness. We used a theoretical evolutionary framework to quantify the potential consequences for the evolution of actuarial senescence in response to exposure to simultaneous physiological stressors – one versus multiple and additive versus synergistic – in a hypothetical population of avian “urban adapters”. In a model in which multiple stressors have additive effects on physiology, species may retain greater capacity to recover, or respond adaptively, to environmental challenges. However, in the presence of high synergy, physiological dysregulation suddenly occurs, leading to a rapid increase in age-dependent mortality and subsequent population collapse. Our results suggest that, if the synergistic model is correct, population crashes in environmentally-stressed species could happen quickly and with little warning, as physiological thresholds of stress resistance are overcome. PMID:26335620

  18. Effect of restrictive hunting regulations on canvasbacks and redhead harvest rates and survival

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geis, A.D.; Crissey, W.F.

    1969-01-01

    Because of low population levels, there were especially restrictive hunting regulations between 1958-1965, including complete closures during the 1960-1963 seasons, for canvasback (Aythya valimeria) and redhead (A. americana) ducks. Banding data from 1952 through 1965 indicated that restrictive regulations reduced both harvest and annual mortality rates. During the period with very restrictive regulations, annual mortality-rate estimates ranged from 14 to 21 percent, much lower than before this period when estimates were 50 percent or higher.

  19. Normal adult survival but reduced Bemisia tabaci oviposition rate on tomato lines carrying an introgression from S. habrochaites.

    PubMed

    Lucatti, Alejandro F; Meijer-Dekens, Fien R G; Mumm, Roland; Visser, Richard G F; Vosman, Ben; van Heusden, Sjaak

    2014-12-24

    Host plant resistance has been proposed as one of the most promising approaches in whitefly management. Already in 1995 two quantitative trait loci (Tv-1 and Tv-2) originating from S. habrochaites CGN1.1561 were identified that reduced the oviposition rate of the greenhouse whitefly (Trialeurodes vaporariorum). After this first study, several others identified QTLs affecting whitefly biology as well. Generally, the QTLs affecting oviposition were highly correlated with a reduction in whitefly survival and the presence of high densities of glandular trichomes type IV. The aim of our study was to further characterize Tv-1 and Tv-2, and to determine their role in resistance against Bemisia tabaci. We selected F2 plants homozygous for the Tv-1 and Tv-2 QTL regions and did three successive backcrosses without phenotypic selection. Twenty-three F2BC3 plants were phenotyped for whitefly resistance and differences were found in oviposition rate of B. tabaci. The F2BC3 plants with the lowest oviposition rate had an introgression on Chromosome 5 in common. Further F2BC4, F2BC4S1 and F2BC4S2 families were developed, genotyped and phenotyped for adult survival, oviposition rate and trichome type and density. It was possible to confirm that an introgression on top of Chr. 5 (OR-5), between the markers rs-2009 and rs-7551, was responsible for reducing whitefly oviposition rate. We found a region of 3.06 Mbp at the top of Chr. 5 (OR-5) associated with a reduction in the oviposition rate of B. tabaci. This reduction was independent of the presence of the QTLs Tv-1 and Tv-2 as well as of the presence of trichomes type IV. The OR-5 locus will provide new opportunities for resistance breeding against whiteflies, which is especially relevant in greenhouse cultivation.

  20. Sulfide toxicity: Mechanical ventilation and hypotension determine survival rate and brain necrosis

    SciTech Connect

    Baldelli, R.J.; Green, F.H.Y.; Auer, R.N. )

    1993-09-01

    Occupational exposure to hydrogen sulfide is one of the leading causes of sudden death in the workplace, especially in the oil and gas industry. High-dose exposure causes immediate neurogenic apnea and death; lower doses cause [open quotes]knockdown[close quotes] (transient loss of consciousness, with apnea). Because permanent neurological sequelae have been reported, the authors sought to determine whether sulfide can directly kill central nervous system neurons. Ventilated and unventilated rats were studied to allow administration of higher doses of sulfide and to facilitate physiological monitoring. It was extremely difficult to produce cerebral necrosis with sulfide. Only one of eight surviving unventilated rats given high-dose sulfide (a dose that was lethal in [ge]50% of animals) showed cerebral necrosis. Mechanical ventilation shifted the dose that was lethal in 50% of the animals to 190 mg/kg from 94 mg/kg in the unventilated rats. Sulfide was found to potently depress blood pressure. Cerebral necrosis was absent in the ventilated rats (n = 11), except in one rat that showed profound and sustained hypotension to [le]35 Torr. Electroencephalogram activity ceased during exposure but recovered when the animals regained consciousness. The authors conclude that very-high-dose sulfide is incapable of producing cerebral necrosis by a direct histotoxic effect. 32 refs., 5 figs.

  1. Total hip replacement in younger patients: survival rate after avascular necrosis of the femoral head.

    PubMed

    Schneider, Wolfgang; Knahr, Karl

    2004-04-01

    A high risk of loosening has been reported in replacements performed because of avascular necrosis. To study cementless total hip replacement (THR) in younger patients with avascular necrosis (AVN), we analyzed retrospectively the outcome in 129 cases: 46 Mittelmeier monobloc ceramic hips (22 cases with AVN), and 83 Zweymüller total hip systems (35 cases with AVN) clinically and radiographically. At follow-up, 17 Mittelmeier prostheses (10 AVN) and 4 Zweymüller prostheses (none with AVN) had been revised. The diagnosis did not affect the implant survival, but the Zweymüller THR fared better than the Mittelmeier system. The main reason for revision of Mittelmeier implants was aseptic loosening, 3 of 4 Zweymüller revisions were necessary due to polyethylene wear. This difference was confirmed by the radiographic evaluation of the still intact implants: Zweymüller THR showed better values for signs of osseointegration, radiolucent lines around the implants and migration, but more acetabular wear. None of these differences was affected by the AVN diagnosis. We could not confirm that AVN is a risk factor in total hip replacement.

  2. Possible natural hybridization of two morphologically distinct species of Acropora (Cnidaria, Scleractinia) in the Pacific: fertilization and larval survival rates.

    PubMed

    Isomura, Naoko; Iwao, Kenji; Fukami, Hironobu

    2013-01-01

    Natural hybridization of corals in the Indo-Pacific has been considered rather rare. However, field studies have observed many corals with intermediate interspecific or unusual morphologies. Given that the existence of F1 hybrids with intermediate interspecific morphologies has been proven in the Caribbean, hybrids may also inhabit the Indo-Pacific and occur more frequently than expected. In this study, we focused on two morphologically different species, Acropora florida and A. intermedia, and performed crossing experiments at Akajima Island, Japan. Results showed that these species could hybridize in both directions via eggs and sperm, but that fertilization rates significantly differed according to which species provided eggs. These results are similar to those reported from the Caribbean. Although all embryos developed normally to the planular larval stage, the developmental processes of some hybrid embryos were delayed by approximately 1 h compared with conspecific embryos, suggesting that fertilization occurred 1 h later in interspecific crosses than in intraspecific crosses. More successful hybridization could occur under conditions with low numbers of conspecific colonies. Additionally, a comparison of survival rates between hybrid and intraspecific larvae revealed that intra- and interspecific larvae produced from eggs of A. florida survived for significantly longer than those produced from eggs of A. intermedia. Considering these data, under specific conditions, hybrids can be expected to be produced and survive in nature in the Pacific. Furthermore, we identified one colony with intermediate morphology between A. florida and A. intermedia in the field. This colony was fertilized only by eggs of A. florida, with high fertilization rates, suggesting that this colony would be a hybrid of these two species and might be backcrossed.

  3. Survival rates and lifetime reproduction of breeding male Cooper’s Hawks in Wisconsin, 1980-2005

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rosenfield, Robert N.; Bielefeldt, John; Rosenfield, Laura J.; Booms, Travis L.; Bozek, Michael A.

    2009-01-01

    There are few published data on annual survival and no reports of lifetime reproduction for breeding Cooper's Hawks (Accipiter cooperii). Breeding males (n  =  105) in central and southeastern Wisconsin had an annual mortality rate of 19%, or a survival rate of 81% for birds ≤10 years of age. We did not detect significant differences in mortality rates between urban and rural habitats, nor between the earlier 13 years and later 13 years of this study. Male Cooper's Hawks produced from zero to 32 nestlings during their lifetimes. Body mass or size appeared unrelated to annual survivorship and lifetime reproduction, although lifetime reproduction was correlated strongly with longevity of breeding males. Fifteen of 66 males (23%) produced most (53%) of the nestlings. Our studies occurred in an area where breeding populations may be increasing with some of the highest reported productivity indices and nesting densities for this species. Habitat used for nesting on our Wisconsin study areas may be less important for survivorship and lifetime reproduction than acquisition of a nesting area in which a male will breed throughout his life.

  4. Temperature- and Age-Dependent Survival, Development, and Oviposition Rates of the Pupal Parasitoid Spalangia cameroni (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae).

    PubMed

    Skovgård, Henrik; Nachman, Gösta

    2016-08-01

    The combined effect of temperature and age on development, survival, attack rate, and oviposition of the parasitoid Spalangia cameroni (Perkins) (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae) exploiting house fly pupae was investigated by conducting life-table experiments at 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35°C. Temperature had a pronounced effect on survival and development of the immature stages. Survival was highest at 25°C, where 88.5% of the parasitized host pupae resulted in adult parasitoids, and lowest at 35°C when only 3.78% emerged. Females constituted between 50% (at 20°C) and 100% (at 35°C) of the surviving immatures. Males developed faster than females, with the shortest developmental times at 30°C (18.18 d for males and 19.41 d for females). Longevity of adult females decreased with temperature from 80 d at 15°C to 18 d at 35°C. Total attack rate of female parasitoids was highest at 20°C (106 hosts per female), and life-time reproduction highest at 20°C and 25°C (about 60 offspring per female). Sex ratio was female biased (65% females). A generic model was used to estimate and predict the temperature effect on the intrinsic rate of increase (rm), the net reproduction rate (R0), and the generation time (G). The model predicted that rm peaks at 33.5°C (rm = 0.182 d(-1)), that maximum R0 is reached at 27.2°C (R0 = 50.2), and that the shortest generation time occurs at 34.5°C (G = 21.1 d). Doubling time was 4.19 d at 33°C. In the temperature range between 20°C and 30°C, S. cameroni has the potential to be an efficient control agent against nuisance flies.

  5. YODA: software to facilitate high-throughput analysis of chronological life span, growth rate, and survival in budding yeast.

    PubMed

    Olsen, Brady; Murakami, Christopher J; Kaeberlein, Matt

    2010-03-18

    The budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae is one of the most widely studied model organisms in aging-related science. Although several genetic modifiers of yeast longevity have been identified, the utility of this system for longevity studies has been limited by a lack of high-throughput assays for quantitatively measuring survival of individual yeast cells during aging. Here we describe the Yeast Outgrowth Data Analyzer (YODA), an automated system for analyzing population survival of yeast cells based on the kinetics of outgrowth measured by optical density over time. YODA has been designed specifically for quantification of yeast chronological life span, but can also be used to quantify growth rate and survival of yeast cells in response to a variety of different conditions, including temperature, nutritional composition of the growth media, and chemical treatments. YODA is optimized for use with a Bioscreen C MBR shaker/incubator/plate reader, but is also amenable to use with any standard plate reader or spectrophotometer. We estimate that use of YODA as described here reduces the effort and resources required to measure chronological life span and analyze the resulting data by at least 15-fold.

  6. Daily survival rates for nests of Black Skimmers from a core breeding area of the Southeastern USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brooks, Gillian L.; Sanders, Felicia J.; Gerard, Patrick D.; Jodice, Patrick G.

    2014-01-01

    Little is known about the reproductive success of Black Skimmers (Rynchops niger) throughout the southeastern USA where availability of undisturbed beaches for nesting is limited. Daily survival rates (DSR) of nests were examined at three nesting sites in Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (CRNWR), South Carolina, USA, 2009–2010. The percent of successful nests (n  =  346 nests) ranged from 42–69% among colony sites when data were pooled across both years. The DSR of nests was primarily related to colony site, predation risk, height of high tide, and clutch size. Predation and overwash were the principal causes of identifiable nest loss, each accounting for ∼33% of nest failures during the two study years. Because of the challenges of resighting skimmer chicks, we were not able to measure chick survival effectively and therefore accurate measures of productivity remain elusive. High variability in nest success among sites within close proximity to each other (<20 km) suggests factors at local scales such as disturbance, predation, and overwash events strongly influenced nest success of Black Skimmers during these 2 years as opposed to more region-wide stressors such as tropical storms or food availability. Although time-intensive techniques to control predators do exist, management options to limit flooding and overwash are far more limited. Conservation of Black Skimmers in the southeastern USA would benefit from coordinated, multi-state efforts to measure nest and chick survival.

  7. 38 CFR 3.10 - Dependency and indemnity compensation rate for a surviving spouse.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... paragraph (b) or (d) of this section and any applicable increases specified in paragraph (c) or (e) of this... 1311(a)(2) increase. The basic monthly rate under paragraph (b) of this section shall be increased by... entitlement to this increase shall be made in accordance with paragraph (f) of this section. (d) Alternative...

  8. Growth rates and post-release survival of captive neonate timber rattlesnakes Crotalus horridus

    Treesearch

    Richard N. Conner; D. Craig Rudolph; Daniel Saenz; Richard R. Schaefer; Shirley J. Burgdorf

    2003-01-01

    The need for conservation and management of rare species is becoming increasingly important as wildlife species and their habitat continue to decline. Translocation of wild captured adults to augment and reintroduce populations has been successfully used for some endangered avian species (see Carrie et al. 1999; Rudolph et al. 1992). In general, success rates for...

  9. Early Detection, Curative Treatment, and Survival Rates for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance in Patients with Cirrhosis: A Meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Singal, Amit G.; Pillai, Anjana; Tiro, Jasmin

    2014-01-01

    Background Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has level I evidence among patients with hepatitis B but only level II evidence in patients with cirrhosis. This lack of randomized data has spurred questions regarding the utility of HCC surveillance in this patient population; however, lack of randomized data does not equate to a lack of data supporting the efficacy of surveillance. The aim of our study was to determine the effect of HCC surveillance on early stage tumor detection, receipt of curative therapy, and overall survival in patients with cirrhosis. Methods and Findings We performed a systematic literature review using Medline from January 1990 through January 2014 and a search of national meeting abstracts from 2009–2012. Two investigators identified studies that reported rates of early stage tumor detection, curative treatment receipt, or survival, stratified by HCC surveillance status, among patients with cirrhosis. Both investigators independently extracted data on patient populations, study methods, and results using standardized forms. Pooled odds ratios, according to HCC surveillance status, were calculated for each outcome using the DerSimonian and Laird method for a random effects model. We identified 47 studies with 15,158 patients, of whom 6,284 (41.4%) had HCC detected by surveillance. HCC surveillance was associated with improved early stage detection (odds ratio [OR] 2.08, 95% CI 1.80–2.37) and curative treatment rates (OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.99–2.52). HCC surveillance was associated with significantly prolonged survival (OR 1.90, 95% CI 1.67–2.17), which remained significant in the subset of studies adjusting for lead-time bias. Limitations of current data included many studies having insufficient duration of follow-up to assess survival and the majority not adjusting for liver function or lead-time bias. Conclusions HCC surveillance is associated with significant improvements in early tumor detection, receipt of curative

  10. The relationship between survival rate and intradialytic blood pressure changes in maintenance hemodialysis patients.

    PubMed

    Lu, Jiayue; Zhu, Minxia; Liu, Shang; Zhu, Mingli; Pang, Huihua; Lin, Xinghui; Ni, Zhaohui; Qian, Jiaqi; Cai, Hong; Zhang, Weiming

    2017-11-01

    The objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between blood pressure changes and all-cause mortality, and between blood pressure changes and cardiovascular mortality, for maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients during dialysis. Data regarding general condition, biochemical indices, and survival prognosis of MHD patients who were treated at the Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine-affiliated Renji Hospital from July 2007 to December 2012 were collected, in order to evaluate the relationship between patients' blood pressure changes during hemodialysis and mortality. Among 364 patients, with an average age of 63.07 ± 13.93 years, an average dialysis vintage of 76.00 (range, 42.25-134.00) months, and a follow-up time of 54.86 ± 19.84 months, there were 85 cases (23.4%) of all-cause death and 46 cases (14.2%) of cardiovascular death. All-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality were lowest (OR, 0.324 and 0.335; 95% CI, 0.152-0.692 and 0.123-0.911; p value, .004 and .032, respectively) in patients whose systolic blood pressure difference (ΔSBP) before and after dialysis was between 7.09 and 14.25 mmHg. Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that both all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality were markedly increased for patients with ΔSBPless than -0.25 mmHg (p value, .001 and .044, respectively). Cox regression analysis showed that ΔSBP< -0.25 mmHg, hemoglobin concentration, Kt/v and albumin were independent risk factors for all-cause mortality in MHD patients. MHD patients whose blood pressure increased significantly after hemodialysis had a higher risk of dying; ΔSBP, hemoglobin concentration, Kt/v and albumin were independent risk factors for all-cause mortality in MHD patients.

  11. Causes and consequences of increase in child survival rates: ethnoepidemiology among the Hmong of Thailand.

    PubMed

    Kunstadter, P; Kunstadter, S L; Leepreecha, P; Podhisita, C; Laoyang, M; Thao, C S; Thao, R S; Yang, W S

    1992-12-01

    The Hmong "hill tribe" minority in Thailand has much higher exposure to factors usually associated with risk of child mortality (high fertility, low status of women, low education, less use of modern medical care for births, exposure to warfare, economic and physical disruption, and poor hygienic conditions) than the rural ethnic Thai population. Nonetheless, infant mortality has declined from over 120 per 1000 to under 50 per 1000 live births among both these populations in the past 30 years. The reason for the rapid increase in child survival among the Hmong appears to be better access to and more use of modern curative and preventive medical care associated with road construction rather than major changes in social or hygienic conditions. Conventional wisdom suggests that high fertility is both a cause and a consequence of high infant and child mortality and that parents will not reduce fertility until they see that mortality has declined. Most Hmong parents recognize the decline in child mortality and attribute it to better access to modern medical care. Most Hmong parents also say that, if they were starting to have children now, they would want to have fewer children. Fear of child death is infrequently mentioned as a motive for having more children, and the perceived decline in child mortality is rarely mentioned as a reason for reduced fertility. Most Hmong parents explain their desired family size in terms of economic conditions rather than perceived risk of child mortality. Results of this study suggest that fertility and child mortality can vary independently of one another and that major reductions in child mortality can be accomplished without waiting for major social changes (e.g., improved education or status of women) or major reductions in fertility.

  12. Does Habitat Heterogeneity in a Multi-Use Landscape Influence Survival Rates and Density of a Native Mesocarnivore?

    PubMed Central

    Gese, Eric M.; Thompson, Craig M.

    2014-01-01

    The relationships between predators, prey, and habitat have long been of interest to applied and basic ecologists. As a native Great Plains mesocarnivore of North America, swift foxes (Vulpes velox) depended on the historic disturbance regime to maintain open grassland habitat. With a decline in native grasslands and subsequent impacts to prairie specialists, notably the swift fox, understanding the influence of habitat on native predators is paramount to future management efforts. From 2001 to 2004, we investigated the influence of vegetation structure on swift fox population ecology (survival and density) on and around the Piñon Canyon Maneuver Site, southeastern Colorado, USA. We monitored 109 foxes on 6 study sites exposed to 3 different disturbance regimes (military training, grazing, unused). On each site we evaluated vegetation structure based on shrub density, basal coverage, vegetation height, and litter. Across all sites, annual fox survival rates ranged from 0.50 to 0.92 for adults and 0.27 to 0.78 for juveniles. Among sites, population estimates ranged from 1 to 7 foxes per 10 km transect. Fox density or survival was not related to the relative abundance of prey. A robust model estimating fox population size and incorporating both shrub density and percent basal cover as explanatory variables far outperformed all other models. Our results supported the idea that, in our region, swift foxes were shortgrass prairie specialists and also indicated a relationship between habitat quality and landscape heterogeneity. We suggest the regulation of swift fox populations may be based on habitat quality through landscape-mediated survival, and managers may effectively use disturbance regimes to create or maintain habitat for this native mesocarnivore. PMID:24963713

  13. Applying a forensic actuarial assessment (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide) to nonforensic patients.

    PubMed

    Harris, Grant T; Rice, Marnie E; Camilleri, Joseph A

    2004-09-01

    The actuarial Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) was developed for male offenders where it has shown excellent replicability in many new forensic samples using officially recorded outcomes. Clinicians also make decisions, however, about the risk of interpersonal violence posed by nonforensic psychiatric patients of both sexes. Could an actuarial risk assessment developed for male forensic populations be used for a broader clientele? We modified the VRAG to permit evaluation using data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study that included nonforensic male and female patients and primarily self-reported violence. The modified VRAG yielded a large effect size in the prediction of dichotomous postdischarge severe violence over 20 and 50 weeks. Accuracy of VRAG predictions was unrelated to sex. The results provide evidence about the robustness of comprehensive actuarial risk assessments and the generality of the personal factors that underlie violent behavior.

  14. Impacts of Rate of Hexazinone Application on Survival and Growth of the Loblolly Pine

    Treesearch

    J.L. Michael

    1984-01-01

    Hexazinone [3-cyc1ohexyl-6-(dimethylamino)-1-methyl-1,3,5-triazine-2,4(1H, 3H)-dionel in 2-cc pellets (10% active ingredient) was applied at rates of 0,2,4, and 8 pounds of active ingredient per acre for site preparation on clay soil in a randomized experiment in May 1980. Loblolly pine seedlings planted to the site in January 1981 were measured for diameter 3 inches...

  15. Effects of slow freezing procedure on late blastocyst gene expression and survival rate in rabbit.

    PubMed

    Saenz-de-Juano, Maria Desemparats; Marco-Jiménez, Francisco; Peñaranda, David S; Joly, Thierry; Vicente, José S

    2012-10-01

    Studies of embryo cryopreservation efficiency have focused mainly on technical and embryo factors. To determine how a slow freezing process affects embryo and fetal development, we studied in vivo development ability after the freezing procedure by assessing blastocyst development at Day 6, implantation, and birth rates. A transcriptional microarray study was also performed to compare gene expression of 6-day-old rabbit embryos previously frozen and transferred into recipient rabbit females to their in vivo counterparts. Our goal was to study which alteration caused by the freezing procedure still remained in late blastocyst stage just at the time when the implantation process began. A microarray specifically designed to study rabbit gene expression profiling was used in this study. Lower implantation and birth rates were obtained in frozen embryos than in the control group (29.9% and 25.7% vs 88.5% and 70.8% for frozen and control embryos, respectively). Likewise, differences were also observed in gene expression profiles. Compared to 6-day-old in vivo-derived embryos, viable frozen embryos presented 70 differentially expressed genes, 24 upregulated and 46 downregulated. In conclusion, our findings showed that the slow freezing process affected late blastocyst development, implantation, and birth rates and that the gene expression alterations identified at late blastocyst stage could be useful in understanding the differences in developmental potential observed and the deficiencies that might hinder implantation and fetal development.

  16. Escin Increases the Survival Rate of LPS-Induced Septic Mice Through Inhibition of HMGB1 Release from Macrophages.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Yajun; Wang, Hongrui; Mao, Min; Liang, Chao; Zhang, Yu; Yang, Deijun; Wei, Ziran; Gao, Shunxiang; Hu, Bo; Wang, Lianghua; Cai, Qingping

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies have described the effects of Escin on improving the survival rate of endotoxemic animals. The purpose of this study was to explore the molecular mechanisms of this potentially beneficial treatment. First, the survival rate of endotoxemic mice was monitored for up to 2 weeks after Escin pretreatment, Escin post-treatment, or Escin post-treatment + rHMGB1. The effects of Escin on the release of pro-inflammatory cytokines such as TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-6 and HMGB1 in the serum of endotoxemic mice and LPS-induced macrophages were evaluated by ELISA. Furthermore, the mRNA and protein levels of HMGB1 in LPS-induced macrophages were measured by qRT-PCR and Western blot, respectively. Additionally, the release of pro-inflammatory cytokines such as TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-6 was evaluated by ELISA in rHMGB1-induced macrophages. Finally, the protein levels and the activity of NF-κB in macrophages were checked by Western blot and ELISA, respectively. Both pretreatment and post-treatment with Escin could improve the survival rate of endotoxemic mice, while exogenous rHMGB1 reversed this effect. In addition, Escin decreased the level of the pro-inflammatory cytokinesTNF-α,IL-1β, IL-6 and HMGB1 in endotoxemic mice and in LPS-induced macrophages. Escin could also inhibit the mRNA levels and activity of HMGB1. The release of the pro-inflammatory cytokinesTNF-α,IL-1β, IL-6 could be suppressed in rHMGB1-induced macrophages by Escin. Finally, Escin could suppress the activation of NF- κB in LPS-induced macrophages. Escin could improve the survival of mice with LPS-induced endotoxemia. This effect maybe meditated by reducing the release of HMGB1, resulting in the suppression of the release of pro-inflammatory cytokines. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  17. Automated Peritoneal Dialysis Is Associated with Better Survival Rates Compared to Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis.

    PubMed

    Beduschi, Gabriela de Carvalho; Figueiredo, Ana Elizabeth; Olandoski, Marcia; Pecoits-Filho, Roberto; Barretti, Pasqual; de Moraes, Thyago Proenca

    2015-01-01

    The impact of peritoneal dialysis modality on patient survival and peritonitis rates is not fully understood, and no large-scale randomized clinical trial (RCT) is available. In the absence of a RCT, the use of an advanced matching procedure to reduce selection bias in large cohort studies may be the best approach. The aim of this study is to compare automated peritoneal dialysis (APD) and continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) according to peritonitis risk, technique failure and patient survival in a large nation-wide PD cohort. This is a prospective cohort study that included all incident PD patients with at least 90 days of PD recruited in the BRAZPD study. All patients who were treated exclusively with either APD or CAPD were matched for 15 different covariates using a propensity score calculated with the nearest neighbor method. Clinical outcomes analyzed were overall mortality, technique failure and time to first peritonitis. For all analysis we also adjusted the curves for the presence of competing risks with the Fine and Gray analysis. After the matching procedure, 2,890 patients were included in the analysis (1,445 in each group). Baseline characteristics were similar for all covariates including: age, diabetes, BMI, Center-experience, coronary artery disease, cancer, literacy, hypertension, race, previous HD, gender, pre-dialysis care, family income, peripheral artery disease and year of starting PD. Mortality rate was higher in CAPD patients (SHR1.44 CI95%1.21-1.71) compared to APD, but no difference was observed for technique failure (SHR0.83 CI95%0.69-1.02) nor for time till the first peritonitis episode (SHR0.96 CI95%0.93-1.11). In the first large PD cohort study with groups balanced for several covariates using propensity score matching, PD modality was not associated with differences in neither time to first peritonitis nor in technique failure. Nevertheless, patient survival was significantly better in APD patients.

  18. Distal lower extremity sarcomas: frequency of occurrence and patient survival rate.

    PubMed

    Zeytoonjian, Trisha; Mankin, Henry J; Gebhardt, Mark C; Hornicek, Francis J

    2004-05-01

    Primary sarcomas in the distal leg, tibia, fibula, ankle, and foot are uncommon and are believed to be less malignant than those that arise in other sites, but only limited information is available to support this contention. Using a computerized system containing extensive information regarding over 14,000 patients, mostly with tumors treated by our center over a 25-year period, 175 sarcomatous lesions with MSTS stage I, II, and III were located in the distal lower extremity. These were compared with 2367 lesions of similar diagnoses in other body parts. The principal studies included diagnostic distribution and outcome (recorded as death as a result of disease). Data were compared for diagnosis, gender, age, Musculoskeletal Tumor Society (MSTS) stage, anatomic site, and treatment methods and evaluated statistically by chi-square methods. The most frequent distal lower limb tumors were synovial cell sarcoma, osteosarcoma, and Ewing's tumor and the percentage distribution of the various tumors for that site as compared with the rest of the body was quite different. Of even more importance was the remarkable difference in outcome with the death rate for the lower limb tumors set at 10%, while the same tumors at other sites had a death rate of 27% (p <.000002). Furthermore, gender, stage, age, and the type of operative procedure showed highly significant differences between the tumors of the lower leg and those of the remainder of the body. On the basis of these data, it is evident that far fewer sarcomas occur in the lower leg, tibia, fibula, ankle, and foot than in other body sites and that their diagnostic distribution is different. Of perhaps greater interest is the fact that the rate of metastasis and death is markedly reduced for this site as compared with others. The authors speculate on the causes of this remarkable alteration in numbers and outcome.

  19. BubR1 as a prognostic marker for recurrence-free survival rates in epithelial ovarian cancers

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Y-K; Choi, E; Kim, M A; Park, P-G; Park, N-H; Lee, H

    2009-01-01

    Background: Epithelial ovarian cancer is one of the most lethal malignancies, and has a high recurrence rate. Thus, prognostic markers for recurrence are crucial for the care of ovarian cancer. As ovarian cancers frequently exhibit chromosome instability, we aimed at assessing the prognostic significance of two key mitotic kinases, BubR1 and Aurora A. Methods: We analysed paraffin-embedded tissue sections from 160 ovarian cancer patients whose clinical outcomes had been tracked after first-line treatment. Results: The median recurrence-free survival in patients with a positive and negative expression of BubR1 was 27 and 83 months, respectively (P<0.001). A positive BubR1 expression was also associated with advanced stage, serous histology and high grade. In contrast, Aurora A immunostaining did not correlate with any of the clinical parameters analysed. Conclusion: BubR1, but not Aurora A, is a prognostic marker for recurrence-free survival rates in epithelial ovarian cancers. PMID:19603021

  20. Survival Rate and Hematological Responses with Temperature Changes of Red Spotted Grouper, Epinephelus akaara in South Korea

    PubMed Central

    Park, Jong Youn; Han, Kyeong Ho; Cho, Jae Kwon; Kim, Kyong Min; Son, Maeng Hyun; Park, Jae Min; Kang, Hee Woong

    2016-01-01

    The effect of sudden changes of water temperature (WT) on the survival rate and physiological responses of the red spotted grouper (Epinephelus akaara) were examined by manipulating WT control system for 9 days. Experimental condition was divided in two different regimes at low (from 10°C to 4°C, decreased 1℃/d) and high (from 28°C to 34°C, increased 1°C/d) WT. Survival rate of experimental fishes were observed, and determined the changes of hematological characteristics by analyzing plasma levels of cortisol, glucose, total protein, and electrolytes (Na+, Cl–, K+). No mortality was observed until low WT 6°C (144 h) and high WT 32°C (96 h), and 100% mortality was observed at low WT 4°C (216 h) and high WT 35°C (171 h). Plasma levels of cortisol and glucose increased rapidly as decreasing WT, and the loss of swimming ability and respiration response was observed at low WT 7°C and high WT 34°C conditions. PMID:27660825

  1. Metabolic and protein interaction sub-networks controlling the proliferation rate of cancer cells and their impact on patient survival

    PubMed Central

    Feizi, Amir; Bordel, Sergio

    2013-01-01

    Cancer cells can have a broad scope of proliferation rates. Here we aim to identify the molecular mechanisms that allow some cancer cell lines to grow up to 4 times faster than other cell lines. The correlation of gene expression profiles with the growth rate in 60 different cell lines has been analyzed using several genome-scale biological networks and new algorithms. New possible regulatory feedback loops have been suggested and the known roles of several cell cycle related transcription factors have been confirmed. Over 100 growth-correlated metabolic sub-networks have been identified, suggesting a key role of simultaneous lipid synthesis and degradation in the energy supply of the cancer cells growth. Many metabolic sub-networks involved in cell line proliferation appeared also to correlate negatively with the survival expectancy of colon cancer patients. PMID:24154670

  2. Metabolic and protein interaction sub-networks controlling the proliferation rate of cancer cells and their impact on patient survival.