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Sample records for actuarial survival rates

  1. 75 FR 68790 - Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rate, and Annual Deductible...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-11-09

    ... monthly Part B premium rate for 2011 is $115.40, which is equal to 50 percent of the monthly actuarial.... These amounts, according to actuarial estimates, will equal, respectively, one-half the expected average... Security Amendments of 1972 (Pub. L. 92-603), the premium rate, which was determined on a fiscal year...

  2. Human actuarial aging increases faster when background death rates are lower: a consequence of differential heterogeneity?

    PubMed

    Hawkes, Kristen; Smith, Ken R; Blevins, James K

    2012-01-01

    Many analyses of human populations have found that age-specific mortality rates increase faster across most of adulthood when overall mortality levels decline. This contradicts the relationship often expected from Williams' classic hypothesis about the effects of natural selection on the evolution of senescence. More likely, much of the within-species difference in actuarial aging is not due to variation in senescence, but to the strength of filters on the heterogeneity of frailty in older survivors. A challenge to this differential frailty hypothesis was recently posed by an analysis of life tables from historical European populations and traditional societies that reported variation in actuarial aging consistent with Williams' hypothesis after all. To investigate the challenge, we reconsidered those cases and aging measures. Here we show that the discrepancy depends on Ricklefs' aging rate measure, ω, which decreases as mortality levels drop because it is an index of mortality level itself, not the rate of increase in mortality with age. We also show unappreciated correspondence among the parameters of Gompertz-Makeham and Weibull survival models. Finally, we compare the relationships among mortality parameters of the traditional societies and the historical series, providing further suggestive evidence that differential heterogeneity has strong effects on actuarial aging.

  3. ANTEROCOD: actuarial survival curves applied to medical coding support for chronic diseases.

    PubMed

    Lecornu, L; Le Guillou, C; Le Saux, F; Hubert, M; Puentes, J; Cauvin, J M

    2010-01-01

    For the practitioner, choosing diagnosis codes is a non-intuitive operation. Mistakes are frequent, causing severe consequences on healthcare performance evaluation and funding. French physicians have to assign a code to all their activities and are frequently prone to these errors. Given that most of the time and particularly for chronic diseases indexed information is already available, we propose a tool named AnterOcod, in order to support the medical coding task. It suggests the list of most relevant plausible codes, predicted from the patient's earlier hospital stays, according to a set of previously utilized diagnosis codes. Our method applies the estimation of code reappearance rates, based on an equivalent approach to actuarial survival curves. Around 33% of the expected correct diagnosis codes were retrieved in this manner, after evaluating 998 discharge abstracts, significantly improving the coding task.

  4. Underlying theory of actuarial analyses.

    PubMed

    Benjamin, B

    1985-05-01

    The developments in theory governing the calculation of mortality rates for use in survival measurements working through the initial basic concept of exposure to risk to the later introduction of stochastic elements are reviewed. I have indicated the way in which actuaries and statisticians who work closely with those in the fields of medicine and biology have, by the exchange of methodologic ideas, come to an identity of approach. Recent new actuarial work and likely future developments in actuarial interests are reviewed.

  5. [Survival functions and life tables at the origins of actuarial mathematics].

    PubMed

    Spelta, D

    1997-01-01

    "In the determination of death probabilities of an insured subject one can use either statistical data or a mathematical function. In this paper a survey of the relationship between mortality tables and survival functions from the origins until the first half of the nineteenth century is presented. The author has tried to find the methodological grounds which have induced the actuaries to prefer either of these tools." (EXCERPT)

  6. Long‐Term Post‐CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions

    PubMed Central

    Carr, Brendan M.; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C.; Zhu, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background/aim Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short‐term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long‐term mortality. The added value of long‐term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long‐term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Methods Long‐term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c‐index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Results Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one‐, three‐, and five years, respectively (median follow‐up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long‐term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Conclusions Long‐term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long‐term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher‐risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow‐up care. More research appears warranted to refine long‐term CABG clinical risk models. doi: 10.1111/jocs.12665 (J Card Surg 2016;31:23–30) PMID:26543019

  7. An actuarial approach to comparing early stage and late stage lung cancer mortality and survival.

    PubMed

    Goldberg, Sara W; Mulshine, James L; Hagstrom, Dale; Pyenson, Bruce S

    2010-02-01

    Comparing the mortality characteristics of different cohorts is an essential process in the life insurance industry. Pseudodisease, lead-time bias, and length bias, which are critical to determining the value of cancer screening, have close analogues in life insurance company management, including the temporal impact of underwriting. Ratios of all-cause mortality rates for cancer cohorts relative to standard population mortality rates can provide insights into early stage and late stage mortality differences, differences by age, sex, race, and histology, and allow modeling of biases associated with early stage detection or screening protocols. The Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data set has characteristics that allow efficient application of actuarial techniques. We show the mortality burden associated with treated early stage lung cancer and that identifying all lung cancers at early stage could reduce US lung cancer deaths by over 70,000 per year.

  8. 78 FR 64943 - Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rate, and Annual Deductible...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-10-30

    ... health clinics, ambulatory surgical centers, comprehensive outpatient rehabilitation facilities, and... health centers, rehabilitation and psychiatric hospitals, etc. Table 3--Derivation of Monthly Actuarial... facilities, rural health clinics, Federally qualified health centers, rehabilitation and...

  9. The case for an actuary.

    PubMed

    Renaud, Patrick N

    2002-12-01

    The author describes the role of the actuary, the need for qualified actuaries and how to find them. Qualified actuarial help, in the form of a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries (FSA), is necessary to ensure the best outcome when setting annual premium rates and realistic budgets for self-funded group benefit plans.

  10. Actuarial Valuation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Teachers Retirement System of Louisiana, Baton Rouge.

    This report presents the results of the actuarial valuation of assets and liabilities as well as funding requirements for the Teachers Retirement System of Louisiana as of June 30, 1996. Data reported include current funding, actuarial assets and valuation assets. These include the Louisiana State University Agriculture and Extension Service Fund,…

  11. Survival Rates for Thymus Cancer

    MedlinePlus

    ... Early Detection, Diagnosis, and Staging Survival Rates for Thymus Cancer Survival rates are often used by doctors ... Ask Your Doctor About Thymus Cancer? More In Thymus Cancer About Thymus Cancer Causes, Risk Factors, and ...

  12. Survival Analysis and Actuarial Parameters of Sternechus subsignatus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Adults.

    PubMed

    Guillermina Socías, María; Van Nieuwenhove, Guido; Murúa, María Gabriela; Willink, Eduardo; Liljesthröm, Gerardo Gustavo

    2016-04-01

    The soybean stalk weevil, Sternechus subsignatus Boheman 1836 (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), is a very serious soybean pest in the Neotropical region. Both adults and larvae feed on soybean, causing significant yield losses. Adult survival was evaluated during three soybean growing seasons under controlled environmental conditions. A survival analysis was performed using a parametric survival fit approach in order to generate survival curves and obtain information that could help optimize integrated management strategies for this weevil pest. Sex of the weevils, crop season, fortnight in which weevils emerged, and their interaction were studied regarding their effect on adult survival. The results showed that females lived longer than males, but both genders were actually long-lived, reaching 224 and 176 d, respectively. Mean lifetime (l50) was 121.88±4.56 d for females and 89.58±2.72 d for males. Although variations were observed in adult longevities among emergence fortnights and soybean seasons, only in December and January fortnights of the 2007–2008 season and December fortnights of 2009–2010 did the statistically longest and shortest longevities occur, respectively. Survivorship data (lx) of adult females and males were fitted to the Weibull frequency distribution model. The survival curve was type I for both sexes, which indicated that mortality corresponded mostly to old individuals.

  13. Sexual Reconviction Rates in the United Kingdom and Actuarial Risk Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Craig, Leam A.; Browne, Kevin D.; Stringer, Ian; Hogue, Todd E.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: Assessing the risk of further offending behavior by adult sexual perpetrators of children is highly relevant and important to professionals involved in child protection. Recent progress in assessing risk in sexual offenders has established the validity of actuarial measures, although there continues to be some debate about the…

  14. Actuarial Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Warren, Bette

    1982-01-01

    Details are provided of a program on actuarial training developed at the State University of New York (SUNY) at Binghamton through the Department of Mathematical Sciences. An outline of its operation, including a few statistics on students in the program, is included. (MP)

  15. Survival rates in cystic fibrosis.

    PubMed Central

    Wilmott, R W; Tyson, S L; Dinwiddie, R; Matthew, D J

    1983-01-01

    Life tables were calculated for 273 British children with cystic fibrosis for the period 1974-9. There was a marked improvement in survival rates in the meconium ileus group compared with the 1969-73 data, but there was little improvement in patients presenting later with other symptoms. PMID:6639137

  16. Bayes and base rates: what is an informative prior for actuarial violence risk assessment?

    PubMed

    Harris, Grant T; Rice, Marnie E

    2013-01-01

    Bayes' theorem describes an axiomatic relationship among marginal and conditional proportions within a single "experiment." In many ways, it has been fruitful to greatly extend this idea to the task of drawing inferences from data much more generally. Commonly, what matters is how all prior knowledge is revised (or not) by new findings resulting in posterior (sometimes "subjective") probabilities. And, to address many important problems, it is sensible to conceive of probability in such subjective terms. However, some commentators in the domain of violence risk assessment have assumed an analogous axiomatic relationship among marginals (i.e., priors in the form of base rates) observed in one study and conditionals (i.e., posteriors in the form of revised rates) expected in a separate study or assessment context. We present examples from our own research to suggest this assumption is generally unwarranted and ultimately an unaddressed empirical matter.

  17. Capital offenders in Texas prisons: rates, correlates, and an actuarial analysis of violent misconduct.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Mark Douglas; Sorensen, Jon R

    2007-12-01

    This study analyzed the records of 136 recently incarcerated capital murder offenders in the initial phase (M = 2.37 years, range = 6-40 months) of their life sentences in the Texas Department of Criminal Justice. Prevalence rates of institutional violence were inversely related to severity: potentially violent misconduct (36.8%), assaultive violations (14%), serious assaults (5.1%), and homicides (0%). Consistent with prior studies, factors correlated with assaultive misconduct included age (inversely), prior prison confinement, and concurrent robbery or burglary in the capital offense. A simplified Burgess scale entitled the Risk Assessment Scale for Prison-Capital (RASP-Cap) was moderately successful in identifying varying levels of improbability of committing violence-related misconduct however defined (AUC = .715-.766).

  18. Clinical versus actuarial judgment.

    PubMed

    Dawes, R M; Faust, D; Meehl, P E

    1989-03-31

    Professionals are frequently consulted to diagnose and predict human behavior; optimal treatment and planning often hinge on the consultant's judgmental accuracy. The consultant may rely on one of two contrasting approaches to decision-making--the clinical and actuarial methods. Research comparing these two approaches shows the actuarial method to be superior. Factors underlying the greater accuracy of actuarial methods, sources of resistance to the scientific findings, and the benefits of increased reliance on actuarial approaches are discussed.

  19. Teacher Survival Rates--A Current Look

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mark, Jonathan H.; Anderson, Barry D.

    1978-01-01

    To examine how survival rates change with time, each cohort of new entrants to the public school teaching profession between 1968 and 1976 was examined. Results replicated Charters' downward sloping survival curve, although the curve has shifted up steadily through time. The survival rate differential between men and women is decreasing over time.…

  20. Sources of variation in waterfowl survival rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krementz, D.G.; Barker, R.J.; Nichols, J.D.

    1997-01-01

    Because of the need to manage hunted populations of waterfowl (Anatidae), biologists have studied many demographic traits of waterfowl by analyzing band recoveries. These analyses have produced the most extensive and best estimates of survival available for any group of birds. Using these data, we examined several factors that might explain variation among annual survival rates to explore large-scale patterns that might be useful in understanding waterfowl population dynamics. We found that geography, body mass, and tribe (i.e. phylogeny) were important in explaining variation in average waterfowl survival rates.

  1. The Casualty Actuarial Society: Helping Universities Train Future Actuaries

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boa, J. Michael; Gorvett, Rick

    2014-01-01

    The Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) believes that the most effective way to advance the actuarial profession is to work in partnership with universities. The CAS stands ready to assist universities in creating or enhancing courses and curricula associated with property/casualty actuarial science. CAS resources for university actuarial science…

  2. Actuarial senescence in a long-lived orchid challenges our current understanding of ageing.

    PubMed

    Dahlgren, Johan Petter; Colchero, Fernando; Jones, Owen R; Øien, Dag-Inge; Moen, Asbjørn; Sletvold, Nina

    2016-11-16

    The dominant evolutionary theory of actuarial senescence-an increase in death rate with advancing age-is based on the concept of a germ cell line that is separated from the somatic cells early in life. However, such a separation is not clear in all organisms. This has been suggested to explain the paucity of evidence for actuarial senescence in plants. We used a 32 year study of Dactylorhiza lapponica that replaces its organs each growing season, to test whether individuals of this tuberous orchid senesce. We performed a Bayesian survival trajectory analysis accounting for reproductive investment, for individuals under two types of land use, in two climatic regions. The mortality trajectory was best approximated by a Weibull model, showing clear actuarial senescence. Rates of senescence in this model declined with advancing age, but were slightly higher in mown plots and in the more benign climatic region. At older ages, senescence was evident only when accounting for a positive effect of reproductive investment on mortality. Our results demonstrate actuarial senescence as well as a survival-reproduction trade-off in plants, and indicate that environmental context may influence senescence rates. This knowledge is crucial for understanding the evolution of demographic senescence and for models of plant population dynamics.

  3. Actually, What Is an Actuary?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oudshoorn, Susan; Finkelstein, Gary

    1991-01-01

    The actuarial profession is described to provide secondary school mathematics teachers insights into how actuaries use mathematics in solving real life problems. Examples are provided involving compound interest, the probability of dying, and inflation with computer modeling. (MDH)

  4. Survival Rates for Selected Childhood Brain and Spinal Cord Tumors

    MedlinePlus

    ... Diagnosis, and Staging Survival Rates for Selected Childhood Brain and Spinal Cord Tumors Survival rates are often ... Childhood Brain and Spinal Cord Tumors More In Brain and Spinal Cord Tumors in Children About Brain ...

  5. Actuarial assessment of risk among sex offenders.

    PubMed

    Harris, Grant T; Rice, Marnie E

    2003-06-01

    The appraisal of risk among sex offenders has seen recent advances through the advent of actuarial assessments. Statistics derived from Relative Operating Characteristics (ROCs) permit the comparison of predictive accuracies achieved by different instruments even among samples that exhibit different base rates of recidivism. Such statistics cannot, however, solve problems introduced when items from actuarial tools are omitted, when reliability is low, or when there is high between-subject variability in the duration of the follow-up. We present empirical evidence suggesting that when comprehensive actuarial tools (VRAG and SORAG) are scored with high reliability, without missing items, and when samples of offenders have fixed and equal opportunity for recidivism, predictive accuracies are maximized near ROC areas of 0.90. Although the term "dynamic" has not been consistently defined, such accuracies leave little room for further improvement in long-term prediction by dynamic risk factors. We address the mistaken idea that long-term, static risk levels have little relevance for clinical intervention with sex offenders. We conclude that highly accurate prediction of violent criminal recidivism can be achieved by means of highly reliable and thorough scoring of comprehensive multi-item actuarial tools using historical items (at least until potent therapies are identified). The role of current moods, attitudes, insights, and physiological states in causing contemporaneous behavior notwithstanding, accurate prediction about which sex offenders will commit at least one subsequent violent offense can be accomplished using complete information about past conduct.

  6. Improved Estimates of Cancer-Specific Survival Rates From Population-Based Data

    PubMed Central

    Ries, Lynn A. G.; Mariotto, Angela B.; Reichman, Marsha E.; Ruhl, Jennifer; Cronin, Kathleen A.

    2010-01-01

    Background Accurate estimates of cancer survival are important for assessing optimal patient care and prognosis. Evaluation of these estimates via relative survival (a ratio of observed and expected survival rates) requires a population life table that is matched to the cancer population by age, sex, race and/or ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and ideally risk factors for the cancer under examination. Because life tables for all subgroups in a study may be unavailable, we investigated whether cause-specific survival could be used as an alternative for relative survival. Methods We used data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program for 2 330 905 cancer patients from January 1, 1992, through December 31, 2004. We defined cancer-specific deaths according to the following variables: cause of death, only one tumor or the first of multiple tumors, site of the original cancer diagnosis, and comorbidities. Estimates of relative survival and cause-specific survival that were derived by use of an actuarial method were compared. Results Among breast cancer patients who were white, black, or of Asian or Pacific Islander descent and who were older than 65 years, estimates of 5-year relative survival (107.5%, 106.6%, and 103.0%, respectively) were higher than estimates of 5-year cause-specific survival (98.6%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 98.4% to 98.8%; 97.4%, 95% CI = 96.2% to 98.2%; and 99.2%, 95% CI = 98.4%, 99.6%, respectively). Relative survival methods likely underestimated rates for cancers of the oral cavity and pharynx (eg, for white cancer patients aged ≥65 years, relative survival = 54.2%, 95% CI = 53.1% to 55.3%, and cause-specific survival = 60.1%, 95% CI = 59.1% to 60.9%) and the lung and bronchus (eg, for black cancer patients aged ≥65 years, relative survival = 10.5%, 95% CI = 9.9% to 11.2%, and cause-specific survival = 11.9%, 95% CI = 11.2 % to 12.6%), largely because of mismatches between the population with these diseases and

  7. Survival rates after serious immersion accidents in childhood.

    PubMed

    Pearn, J

    1978-01-01

    A study of childhood survival rates, after loss of consciousness in fresh water, has been undertaken. Age-specific, sex-specific and site-specific survival rates for childhood fresh water immersion accidents are reported for the first time. The overall survival rate, after loss of consciousness in the water was 0.49; swimming pool and domestic bath tub serious immersion accidents have a survival rate of 0.60 compared with a rate of 0.05 for similar immersion accidents in creeks and rivers. Young male schoolboys have the lowest potential survival (0.20 or less) of any group. Survival rates were significantly higher during the winter (0.86) than during the warmer months (survival rate of 0.49). This gives a quantitative expression to the protection from cerebral anoxia afforded by body chilling which is not extreme. Survival rates have increased significantly over the 5 year period 1971--1975; it is considered that this is due to public education campaigns of the potential danger of water to children. The use of survival rates to measure factors which modify the pathophysiology of human drowning and near-drowning is discussed.

  8. Actuarial contributions to life table analysis.

    PubMed

    Lew, E A

    1985-05-01

    The correct principles for the construction of life tables and more particularly select life tables were developed by actuaries in England in the first half of the 19th century. Actuaries explored the phenomenon of selection not only between the insured and annuitants but also in the general population, distinguishing among initial temporary selection, antiselection, and class selection. The conclusion was reached early that no such thing as an unselected population exists. Group life insurance experience among the actively employed has been shown to provide a more appropriate standard of expected mortality than general population death rates in studies of medical impairments and occupational hazards at ages under 65 years. Mortality rates derived from the Cancer Prevention Study can serve as a useful standard of expected mortality when the objective is determination of excess mortality compared with ostensibly healthy persons at ages 65 years and older.

  9. Spatial variation in senescence rates in a bird metapopulation.

    PubMed

    Holand, H; Kvalnes, T; Gamelon, M; Tufto, J; Jensen, H; Pärn, H; Ringsby, T H; Sæther, B-E

    2016-07-01

    Investigating factors which affect the decline in survival with age, i.e. actuarial senescence, is important in order to understand how demographic rates vary in wild populations. Although the evidence for the occurrence of actuarial senescence in wild populations is growing, very few studies have compared actuarial senescence rates between wild populations of the same species. We used data from a long-time study of demography of house sparrows (Passer domesticus) to investigate differences in rates of actuarial senescence between habitats and sub-populations. We also investigated whether rates of actuarial senescence differed between males and females. We found that rates of actuarial senescence showed large spatial variation. We also found that the onset of actuarial senescence varied between sub-populations. However, these differences were not significantly explained by a general difference in habitat type. We also found no significant difference in actuarial senescence rates between males and females. This study shows that senescence rates in natural populations may vary significantly between sub-populations and that failing to account for such differences may give a biased estimate of senescence rates of a species.

  10. Survival rates of American woodcock wintering along the Atlantic coast

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krementz, D.G.; Seginak, J.T.; Smith, D.R.; Pendleton, G.W.

    1994-01-01

    Because American woodcock (Scolopax minor) populations have been declining, we attached radio transmitters to woodcock at coastal plain sites to determine if survival during winter was involved in the decline. Sites were in Georgia (1982-84, 1989-92), South Carolina (1988-89), and Virginia (1991-92). Survival rates were not different between age or sex classes. Survival rates differed (P = 0.003) among years. Daily survival rates were lowest (P = 0.030, S = 0.987) during 1982-83 in Georgia and highest (P = 0.004, S = 0.999) during 1990-91 in Georgia than in the other years and locations combined (S = 0.996). We attributed all mortality to raptors and mammals. Compared with other periods of the year, winter was a time of low survival for woodcock. Lower survival rates were possibly a cause of population decline.

  11. Mortality in neurofibromatosis 1: in North West England: an assessment of actuarial survival in a region of the UK since 1989.

    PubMed

    Evans, D Gareth R; O'Hara, Catherine; Wilding, Anna; Ingham, Sarah L; Howard, Elizabeth; Dawson, John; Moran, Anthony; Scott-Kitching, Vilka; Holt, Felicity; Huson, Susan M

    2011-11-01

    Neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) is a comparatively common autosomal dominant disorder. However, relatively few studies have assessed lifetime risk; and information about the effect of NF1 on mortality remains uncertain. NF1 patients were identified using The North West regional family Genetic Register, which covers the 4.1 million people living in North West England, including the regions of Greater Manchester, Cheshire and Cumbria. Data relating to tumours and malignancies were obtained from The North West Cancer Intelligence Service. Death data for the general North West population were obtained from the Office of National Statistics. We identified 1186 individuals with NF1, of whom 1023 lived within the strict regional boundaries (constituting a region of North West England bound by The Pennines to the east and Irish Sea to the west, but excluding the conurbation of Liverpool (Merseyside) and the Wirral peninsula) and 131 had died. MPNST and glioma were found to be the two most common causes of reduced life expectancy among NF1 patients. In Kaplan-Meier analyses the median survival for NF1 patients was shown to be 71.5 years, with women living ∼7.4 years longer than men. On average both men and women lived ∼8 years less than their counterparts in the general population. Reduction in life expectancy for NF1 patients was found to be much lower (8 years) than the previously estimated 15-year decrease. Limitations relating to the underreporting of NF1 on death certificates were once again highlighted and should be considered in future investigations.

  12. Comment on 'Are survival rates for northern spotted owls biased?'

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Franklin, A.B.; Nichols, J.D.; Anthony, R.G.; Burnham, K.P.; White, Gary C.; Forsman, E.D.; Anderson, D.R.

    2006-01-01

    Loehle et al. recently estimated survival rates from radio-telemetered northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina (Merriam, 1898)) and suggested that survival rates estimated for this species from capture-recapture studies were negatively biased, which subsequently resulted in the negatively biased estimates of rates of population change (lambda) reported by Anthony et al. (Wildl. Monogr. No. 163, pp. 1-47 (2006)). We argue that their survival estimates were inappropriate for comparison with capture-recapture estimates because (i) the manner in which they censored radio-telemetered individuals had the potential to positively bias their survival estimates, (ii) their estimates of survival were not valid for evaluating bias, and (iii) the size and distribution of their radiotelemetry study areas were sufficiently different from capture-recapture study areas to preclude comparisons. In addition, their inferences of negative bias in rates of population change estimated by Anthony et al. were incorrect and reflected a misunderstanding about those estimators.

  13. Estimating survival rates with age-structure data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Udevitz, M.S.; Ballachey, B.E.

    1998-01-01

    We developed a general statistical model that provides a comprehensive framework for inference about survival rates based on standing age-structure and ages-at-death data. Previously available estimators are maximum likelihood under the general model, but they use only 1 type of data and require the assumption of a stable age structure and a known population growth rate. We used the general model to derive new survival rate estimators that use both types of data and require only the assumption of a stable age structure or a known population growth rate. Our likelihood-based approach allows use of standard model-selection procedures to test hypotheses about age-structure stability, population growth rates, and age-related patterns in survival. We used this approach to estimate survival rates for female sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Prince William Sound, Alaska.

  14. Survival rates of birds of tropical and temperate forests: will the dogma survive?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Karr, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Klimkiewicz, M.K.; Brawn, J.D.

    1990-01-01

    Survival rates of tropical forest birds are widely assumed to be high relative to the survival rates of temperate forest birds. Much life-history theory is based on this assumption despite the lack of empirical data to support it. We provide the first detailed comparison of survival rates of tropical and temperate forest birds based on extensive data bases and modern capture-recapture models. We find no support for the conventional wisdom. Because clutch size is only one component of reproductive rate, the frequently assumed, simple association between clutch size and adult survival rates should not necessarily be expected. Our results emphasize the need to consider components of fecundity in addition to clutch size when comparing the life histories of tropical and temperate birds and suggest similar considerations in the development of vertebrate life-history theory.

  15. Teacher Survival in Oregon School Districts: First Results of a State-Wide Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Charters, W.W., Jr.

    The careers of 799 male and 1,265 female teachers employed in Oregon school districts were traced for 4 years from 1962 to 1966 to determine the teachers' survival rates. The primary method of analysis chosen was an actuarial approach which involves construction of a survival curve showing numbers of teachers surviving after each period of time…

  16. A look inside the actuarial black box.

    PubMed

    Math, S E; Youngerman, H

    1992-12-01

    Hospital executives often rely on actuaries (and their "black boxes") to determine self-insurance program liabilities and funding contributions. Typically, the hospital supplies the actuary with a myriad of statistics, and eventually the hospital receives a liability estimate and recommended funding level. The mysterious actuarial calculations that occur in between data reporting and receipt of the actuary's report are akin to a black box--a complicated device whose internal mechanism is hidden from or mysterious to the user.

  17. Impact of actuarial assumptions on pension costs: A simulation analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusof, Shaira; Ibrahim, Rose Irnawaty

    2013-04-01

    This study investigates the sensitivity of pension costs to changes in the underlying assumptions of a hypothetical pension plan in order to gain a perspective on the relative importance of the various actuarial assumptions via a simulation analysis. Simulation analyses are used to examine the impact of actuarial assumptions on pension costs. There are two actuarial assumptions will be considered in this study which are mortality rates and interest rates. To calculate pension costs, Accrued Benefit Cost Method, constant amount (CA) modification, constant percentage of salary (CS) modification are used in the study. The mortality assumptions and the implied mortality experience of the plan can potentially have a significant impact on pension costs. While for interest rate assumptions, it is inversely related to the pension costs. Results of the study have important implications for analyst of pension costs.

  18. Survival and Recurrence Rate after Treatment for Primary Spinal Sarcomas

    PubMed Central

    Cho, Wonik

    2013-01-01

    Objective We have limited understanding on the presentation and survival of primary spinal sarcomas. The survival, recurrence rate, and related prognostic factors were investigated after treatment for primary sarcomas of the spine. Methods Retrospective analysis of medical records and radiological data was done for 29 patients in whom treatment was performed due to primary sarcoma of the spine from 2000 to 2010. As for treatment method, non-radical operation, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy were simultaneously or sequentially combined. Overall survival (OS), progression free survival (PFS), ambulatory function, and pain status were analyzed. In addition, factors affecting survival and recurrence were analyzed : age (≤42 or ≥43), gender, tumor histologic type, lesion location (mobile spine or rigid spine), weakness at diagnosis, pain at diagnosis, ambulation at diagnosis, initial treatment, radiation therapy, kind of irradiation, surgery, chemotherapy and distant metastasis. Results Median OS was 60 months, the recurrence rate was 79.3% and median PFS was 26 months. Patients with distant metastasis showed significantly shorter survival than those without metastasis. No factors were found to be significant relating to recurrence. Prognostic factor associated with walking ability was the presence of weakness at diagnosis. Conclusion Primary spinal sarcomas are difficult to cure and show high recurrence rate. However, the development of new treatment methods is improving survival. PMID:23826479

  19. Generalized procedures for testing hypotheses about survival or recovery rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sauer, J.R.; Williams, B.K.

    1989-01-01

    Comparisons of survival or recovery rates from different time periods or geographic regions may be difficult to accomplish using the Z-tests suggested by Brownie et al. (1985). We propose a general Chi-square statistic that addresses an unambiguous null hypothesis of homogeneity among several survival or recovery rates. With this statistic, specific hypotheses of differences in rates can be simultaneously tested using contrasts. If necessary, a posteriori multiple comparisons can also be conducted that incorporate an adjustment for Type I error.

  20. Prognostic factors on survival rate of fingers replantation

    PubMed Central

    Lima, José Queiroz; Carli, Alberto De; Nakamoto, Hugo Alberto; Bersani, Gustavo; Crepaldi, Bruno Eiras; de Rezende, Marcelo Rosa

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the factors that influence the survival rate of replantation and revascularization of the thumb and/or fingers. Methods: We included fifty cases treated in our department from May 2012 to October 2013 with total or partial finger amputations, which had blood perfusion deficit and underwent vascular anastomosis. The parameters evaluated were: age, gender, comorbidities, trauma, time and type of ischemia, mechanism, the injured area, number of anastomosed vessels and use of vein grafts. The results were statistically analyzed and type I error value was set at p <0.05 . Results: Fifty four percent of the 50 performed replantation survived. Of 15 revascularizations performed, the survival rate was 93.3%. The only factor that affected the survival of the amputated limb was the necessity of venous anastomosis. Conclusion: We could not establish contraindications or absolute indications for the replantation and revascularization of finger amputations in this study. Level of Evidence III, Retropective Study. PMID:26327788

  1. Effect of lead poisoning on spectacled eider survival rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grand, James B.; Flint, Paul L.; Petersen, Margaret R.; Moran, Christine L.

    1998-01-01

    Spectacled eider (Somateria fischeri) populations on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, declined rapidly through the 1980s, and low adult female survival was suggested as the likely cause of the decline. We used mark-resighting techniques to study annual survival rates of adult female spectacled eiders at 2 sites on the Y-K Delta during 1993-96. Our data suggest survival rates may differ among sites. However, a model fit to a subset of data on females for which we knew lead levels in blood suggests lead exposure influences survival. Adult females exposed to lead prior to hatching their eggs survived at a much lower rate (0.44 ?? 0.10) each year than females not exposed to lead before hatch (0.78 ?? 0.05). We suggest most mortality from lead exposure occurs over winter, and the related reduction in adult survival may be impeding recovery of local populations. We encourage managers to curtail input of lead shot into the environment.

  2. Clinical versus Actuarial Predictions of Violence in Patients with Mental Illness.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gardner, William; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Compared accuracy of an actuarial procedure for the prediction of community violence by patients with mental illnesses to accuracy of clinicians' concern ratings of patient violence. Data came from a study of 357 pairs of patients seen in a psychiatric emergency room. Actuarial predictions based only on patients' histories of violence were more…

  3. Temporal variation in survival and recovery rates of lesser scaup

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arnold, Todd W.; Afton, Alan D.; Anteau, Michael J.; Koons, David N.; Nicolai, Chris

    2016-01-01

    Management of lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) has been hindered by access to reliable data on population trajectories and vital rates. We conducted a Bayesian analysis of historical (1951–2011) band-recovery data throughout North America to estimate annual survival and recovery rates for juvenile and adult male and female lesser scaup to determine if increasing harvest or declining survival rates have contributed to population changes and to determine if harvest has been primarily additive or compensatory. Annual recovery rates were low, ranging from 1% to 4% for adults and 2% to 10% for juveniles during most years, with trend models indicating that recovery rates have declined through time for all age–sex classes. Annual survival (mid-Aug to mid-Aug) averaged 0.402 (σ ̂ 0.043) for juvenile males, 0.416 (σ ̂ 0.067) for juvenile females, 0.689 (σ ̂ 0.109) for adult males, and 0.602 (σ ̂ 0.115) for adult females, where σ ̂ represents an estimate of annual process variation in each survival rate. Annual survival rates exhibited no evidence of long-term declines or negative correlations with annual recovery rates (i.e., an index of harvest intensity) for any age–sex class, suggesting that declining fecundity was the most likely explanation for population declines during 1975–2005. We conclude that hunting mortality played a minor role in affecting population dynamics of lesser scaup and waterfowl managers could take a less cautious approach in managing harvest, especially if recruiting or maintaining waterfowl hunters are viewed as important management objectives.

  4. Sex offenders and actuarial risk assessments: ethical considerations.

    PubMed

    Campbell, Terence W

    2003-01-01

    When assessing the recidivism risk of previously convicted sex offenders, the relevant ethical standards and practice guidelines obligate psychologists to acknowledge numerous limits related to their data and conclusions. For the actuarial instruments used in these assessments, the highest rates of classification accuracy are associated with greater specificity compared with sensitivity. Selecting cut-off scores to maximize sensitivity results in an inordinate frequency of false positive classifications. Attempts at maximizing specificity create an undesirable frequency of false negative classifications.Unfortunately, adjusted actuarial assessment cannot remedy these problems created by the sensitivity-specificity tradeoff. As an unstandardized procedure, the accuracy of adjusted actuarial assessment is severely limited. Consequently, civil proceedings for previously convicted sexual offenders rely on assessments of very limited accuracy. Undertaking these assessments, therefore, may be inconsistent with relevant ethical standards and practice guidelines.

  5. The seven-year cumulative survival rate of Osstem implants

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Young-Kyun; Kim, Bum-Su; Yun, Pil-Young; Mun, Sang-Un; Yi, Yang-Jin; Jeong, Kyung-In

    2014-01-01

    Objectives This study was performed to analyze the cumulative survival rate of Osstem implants (Osstem Implant Co., Ltd.) over a seven-year period. Materials and Methods A total of 105 patients who had 467 Osstem implants that were placed at the Section of Dentistry, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital (Seongnam, Korea) from June 2003 through December 2005 were analyzed. The life table method and a cross-tubulation analysis, log rank test were used to evaluate the survival curve and the influence that the prognostic factors. The prognostic factors, i.e., age and gender of patients, diameter and length, type of implants, bone graft history and loading time were determined with a Cox proportional hazard model based on logistic regression analysis. Results The seven-year cumulative survival rate of Osstem implants was 95.37%. The Cox proportional hazard model revealed that the following factors had a significant influence on survival rate; increased diameter, reduced prosthetic loading period and performance of bone grafting. Conclusion The osstem implants showed satisfactory results over the seven-year study period. PMID:24868503

  6. Actuarial and actual analysis of surgical results: empirical validation.

    PubMed

    Grunkemeier, G L; Anderson, R P; Starr, A

    2001-06-01

    This report validates the use of the Kaplan-Meier (actuarial) method of computing survival curves by comparing 12-year estimates published in 1978 with current assessments. It also contrasts cumulative incidence curves, referred to as "actual" analysis in the cardiac-related literature with Kaplan-Meier curves for thromboembolism and demonstrates that with the former estimate the percentage of events that will actually occur.

  7. Actuarial analysis of the risk of undergoing repeat cardiac valve replacement.

    PubMed

    Rutledge, R; Applebaum, R E; Kim, J B; Engler, M B; Engler, M M

    1984-09-01

    One thousand five hundred ninety-eight patients who underwent cardiac valve replacement were reviewed. One hundred fifty-two patients (10 percent) required a second valve replacement. The indications for repeat valve replacement were prosthetic valve dysfunction in 53 patients (35 percent), development of a new valvular lesion in 46 patients (30 percent), simple closure of a perivalvular leak in 14 patients (9 percent), change of the valve poppet in 13 patients (8 percent), severe hemolysis or emboli in 21 patients (14 percent), and prosthetic valve endocarditis in 5 patients (3 percent). The mean preoperative New York Health Association functional class improved from 3 to 1.5 in the nonreoperated patients and from 2.9 to 1.8 in patients who underwent a second valve replacement. Similarly, the mean cardiac index improved from 2.5 to 2.9 and from 2.5 to 2.8 in nonreoperated and reoperated patients, respectively. The operative mortality rate was 14 percent in the nonreoperated patients and 16 percent at second operation in the reoperated patients. Using actuarial techniques, the risk of repeat valve replacement was 1 to 4 percent per year. Long-term survival was compared between groups. Using actuarial techniques, the estimated survival rates at 1, 5, and 10 years were 89 percent, 69 percent, and 52 percent, respectively in nonreoperated patients and 87 percent, 60 percent, and 37 percent in reoperated patients. This study has documented the excellent improvement in functional and hemodynamic state after second cardiac valve replacement. The operative mortality and long-term survival rates were similar to those of the nonreoperated patients. Patients having repeat cardiac valve replacement can expect good improvement in length and quality of life.

  8. Do age-specific survival patterns of wild boar fit current evolutionary theories of senescence?

    PubMed

    Gamelon, Marlène; Focardi, Stefano; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Gimenez, Olivier; Bonenfant, Christophe; Franzetti, Barbara; Choquet, Rémi; Ronchi, Francesca; Baubet, Eric; Lemaître, Jean-François

    2014-12-01

    Actuarial senescence is widespread in age-structured populations. In growing populations, the progressive decline of Hamiltonian forces of selection with age leads to decreasing survival. As actuarial senescence is overcompensated by a high fertility, actuarial senescence should be more intense in species with high reproductive effort, a theoretical prediction that has not been yet explicitly tested across species. Wild boar (Sus scrofa) females have an unusual life-history strategy among large mammals by associating both early and high reproductive effort with potentially long lifespan. Therefore, wild boar females should show stronger actuarial senescence than similar-sized related mammals. Moreover, being polygynous and much larger than females, males should display higher senescence rates than females. Using a long-term monitoring (18 years) of a wild boar population, we tested these predictions. We provided clear evidence of actuarial senescence in both sexes. Wild boar females had earlier but not stronger actuarial senescence than similar-sized ungulates. Both sexes displayed similar senescence rates. Our study indicates that the timing of senescence, not the rate, is associated with the magnitude of fertility in ungulates. This demonstrates the importance of including the timing of senescence in addition to its rate to understand variation in senescence patterns in wild populations.

  9. Epidemiological Data and Survival Rate of Removable Partial Dentures

    PubMed Central

    Moreno, Amália; Haddad, Marcela Filié; Rocha, Eduardo Passos; Assunção, Wirley Gonçalves; Filho, Humberto Gennari; Santos, Emerson Gomes Dos; Sonego, Mariana Vilela; Santos, Daniela Micheline Dos

    2016-01-01

    Introduction The use of removable partial denture (RPD) is considered as low-cost and common treatment option to rehabilitate edentulous areas. Aim This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological data of patients rehabilitated with removable partial denture (RPD) in order to assess treatment survival rate and failures. Materials and Methods Epidemiological data and medical records of patients treated with RPD between 2007 and 2012 at the RPD discipline of a Brazilian University (Aracatuba Dental School- UNESP) were evaluated as well as dental records of patients who underwent RPD treatments (fabrication or repairs) between 2000 and 2010. Factors such as gender, age, presence of systemic disease, main complaint, edentulous arch, period and cause of denture replacement and the prosthesis characteristics were recorded. The chi-square test was used to assess the differences between the variables and the Kaplan Meyer to assess the survival of the RPDs evaluated. Results A total of 324 maxillary RPD and 432 mandibular RPD were fabricated. Most of the patients were women aging 41 to 60-year-old. The number of mandibular RPD Kennedy class I (26%) was statistically higher for the maxillary arch (p<.05). There was no association between main complaint to gender or the presence of systemic disease. The lingual plate was the most common major connector used in the mandible (32%). The main reason for altering the design of replaced RPDs were changes during treatment plan. Conclusion The number of patients who require RPD is large; most of RPDs are Kennedy Class I. A good treatment plan is very important for achieving a positive treatment outcome, and it is strictly related to the survival rate. PMID:27437367

  10. 20 CFR 901.2 - Eligibility to perform actuarial services.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    .... 901.2 Section 901.2 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS.... (a) Enrolled actuary. Subject to the standards of performance set forth in subpart C of this part, any individual who is an enrolled actuary as defined in § 901.1(g) may perform actuarial...

  11. 26 CFR 301.6059-1 - Periodic report of actuary.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Periodic report of actuary. 301.6059-1 Section...-1 Periodic report of actuary. (a) In general. The actuarial report described in this section must be... funding deficiency (as defined in section 412(a)) to zero, (4) A statement by the enrolled actuary...

  12. Comparison of social support content within online communities for high- and low-survival-rate cancers.

    PubMed

    Buis, Lorraine R; Whitten, Pamela

    2011-08-01

    People experiencing cancer use the Internet for many reasons, particularly for social support. This study sought to determine how social support content within online support communities for different cancers varied according to cancer survival rate. A quantitative content analysis was conducted on 3717 posts from eight online communities focused on cancers with high and low 5-year relative survival rates. Using Optimal Matching Theory, we predicted that low-survival-rate communities would have more emotional support content than high-survival-rate communities, and high-survival-rate communities would have more informational support content than low-survival-rate communities. Emotional support content was consistently more common than informational support. Overall, high-survival-rate communities had a greater proportion of posts containing emotional support content (75%) than low-survival-rate communities (66%) (χ1 = 20.89 [n = 2235], P < .001). Furthermore, low-survival-rate communities had a greater proportion of posts containing informational support content (46%) than high-survival-rate communities (36%) (χ1 = 21.13 [n = 2235], P< .001). Although the relationships between survival rate and support types were significant, they were not as hypothesized. Deviations from theoretically predicted results suggest that individuals experiencing low-survival-rate cancers may have a greater desire for informational support online than individuals experiencing high-survival-rate cancers.

  13. Survival rate of preserved cultures contained in baker's vaccine.

    PubMed

    Kornacki, K; Klebukowska, I; Sienkiewicz, J

    2001-01-01

    The studies comprised the preparation and preservation, by the method of spray-drying, of baker's vaccine composed of lactic acid bacteria. The selection of particular strains was conducted taking into consideration the fermentation activity and growth dynamics of Lactobacillus rods isolated from plant material. Mixed vaccine was composed of chosen monocultures, characterized by the highest acidifying activity (4 strains). Before the vaccine was preserved, it had been used for making bread leaven (of rye flour) whose activity and usefulness for rye bread production was then determined The vaccine was subjected to spray-drying. The survival rate of Lactobacillus rods was determined directly after drying and during storage. It was found that the parameters of spray-drying applied in the experiment caused a considerable reduction in the number of vaccine components--by 2 log on average.

  14. Inferences regarding survival and recovery rates of winter-banded canvasbacks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Haramis, G.M.

    1980-01-01

    Banding and recovery data from 3 populations of winter-banded canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) were analyzed and survival and recovery rates were estimated. Sex-specific differences in these rates were detected in some populations, and lower survival rates were exhibited by females. Some geographic variation in survival rates was evident, suggesting that canvasbacks should not be managed strictly on a continent-wide basis. Evidence of temporal variation in both survival and recovery rates was found. Lower recovery rates were noted during periods of restrictive hunting regulations, but the relationship between survival rates and hunting regulations was not clear-cut.

  15. Survival and band recovery rates of sympatric grey ducks and mallards in New Zealand

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Caithness, T.; Williams, M.; Nichols, J.D.

    1991-01-01

    We used band recovery data from grey ducks (Anas superciliosa) and mallards. (A. platyrhynchos) banded sympatrically during 1957-74 to estimate annual survival and recovery rates. Young birds tended to have higher recovery rates and lower survival rates than adults for both species. Both species showed strong evidence of year-to-year variation in annual survival rates. Survival rates of male mallards were higher than those in females, as is typical for this species in North America, but there was no evidence of sex-specific survival differences in grey ducks. Recovery rate estimates for grey ducks were high and were significantly higher than those for mallards. However, survival rates did not differ significantly between the 2 species within any age-sex class. The similar survival rates, when mallard populations were increasing and grey ducks were decreasing, suggest that mallard reproductive rates have been greater than those of grey ducks.

  16. Classification accuracy of actuarial risk assessment instruments.

    PubMed

    Neller, Daniel J; Frederick, Richard I

    2013-01-01

    Users of commonly employed actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) hope to generate numerical probability statements about risk; however, ARAI manuals often do not explicitly report data that are essential for understanding the classification accuracy of the instruments. In addition, ARAI manuals often contain data that have the potential for misinterpretation. The authors of the present article address the accurate generation of probability statements. First, they illustrate how the reporting of numerical probability statements based on proportions rather than predictive values can mislead users of ARAIs. Next, they report essential test characteristics that, to date, have gone largely unreported in ARAI manuals. Then they discuss a graphing method that can enhance the practice of clinicians who communicate risk via numerical probability statements. After the authors review several strategies for selecting optimal cut-off scores, they show how the graphing method can be used to estimate positive predictive values for each cut-off score of commonly used ARAIs, across all possible base rates. They also show how the graphing method can be used to estimate base rates of violent recidivism in local samples.

  17. Band reporting rates of waterfowl: does individual heterogeneity bias estimated survival rates?

    PubMed Central

    White, Gary C; Cordes, Line S; Arnold, Todd W

    2013-01-01

    In capture–recapture studies, the estimation accuracy of demographic parameters is essential to the efficacy of management of hunted animal populations. Dead recovery models based upon the reporting of rings or bands are often used for estimating survival of waterfowl and other harvested species. However, distance from the ringing site or condition of the bird may introduce substantial individual heterogeneity in the conditional band reporting rates (r), which could cause bias in estimated survival rates (S) or suggest nonexistent individual heterogeneity in S. To explore these hypotheses, we ran two sets of simulations (n = 1000) in MARK using Seber's dead recovery model, allowing time variation on both S and r. This included a series of heterogeneity models, allowing substantial variation on logit(r), and control models with no heterogeneity. We conducted simulations using two different values of S: S = 0.60, which would be typical of dabbling ducks such as mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), and S = 0.80, which would be more typical of sea ducks or geese. We chose a mean reporting rate on the logit scale of −1.9459 with SD = 1.5 for the heterogeneity models (producing a back-transformed mean of 0.196 with SD = 0.196, median = 0.125) and a constant reporting rate for the control models of 0.196. Within these sets of simulations, estimation models where σS = 0 and σS > 0 (σS is SD of individual survival rates on the logit scale) were incorporated to investigate whether real heterogeneity in r would induce apparent individual heterogeneity in S. Models where σS = 0 were selected approximately 91% of the time over models where σS > 0. Simulation results showed < 0.05% relative bias in estimating survival rates except for models estimating σS > 0 when true S = 0.8, where relative bias was a modest 0.5%. These results indicate that considerable variation in reporting rates does not cause major bias in estimated survival rates of waterfowl, further highlighting

  18. Choosing the 'best' plan in a health insurance exchange: actuarial value tells only part of the story.

    PubMed

    Lore, Ryan; Gabel, Jon R; McDevitt, Roland; Slover, Michael

    2012-08-01

    In the health insurance exchanges that will come online in 2014, consumers will be able to compare health plans with respect to actuarial value, or the percentage of health care costs that a plan would pay for a standard population. This analysis illustrates the out-of-pocket costs that might result from plans with various plan designs and actuarial values. We find that average out-of-pocket expense declines as actuarial values rise, but two plans with similar actuarial values can produce very different outcomes for a given person. The overall affordability of a plan also will be influenced by age rating, income-related premium subsidies, and out-of-pocket subsidies. Actuarial value is a useful starting point for selecting a plan, but it does not pinpoint which plan will produce the best overall value for a particular person.

  19. Survival rate of eukaryotic cells following electrophoretic nanoinjection

    PubMed Central

    Simonis, Matthias; Hübner, Wolfgang; Wilking, Alice; Huser, Thomas; Hennig, Simon

    2017-01-01

    Insertion of foreign molecules such as functionalized fluorescent probes, antibodies, or plasmid DNA to living cells requires overcoming the plasma membrane barrier without harming the cell during the staining process. Many techniques such as electroporation, lipofection or microinjection have been developed to overcome the cellular plasma membrane, but they all result in reduced cell viability. A novel approach is the injection of cells with a nanopipette and using electrophoretic forces for the delivery of molecules. The tip size of these pipettes is approximately ten times smaller than typical microinjection pipettes and rather than pressure pulses as delivery method, moderate DC electric fields are used to drive charged molecules out of the tip. Here, we show that this approach leads to a significantly higher survival rate of nanoinjected cells and that injection with nanopipettes has a significantly lower impact on the proliferation behavior of injected cells. Thus, we propose that injection with nanopipettes using electrophoretic delivery is an excellent alternative when working with valuable and rare living cells, such as primary cells or stem cells. PMID:28120926

  20. A new approach to the "apparent survival" problem: estimating true survival rates from mark-recapture studies.

    PubMed

    Gilroy, James J; Virzi, Thomas; Boulton, Rebecca L; Lockwood, Julie L

    2012-07-01

    Survival estimates generated from live capture-mark-recapture studies may be negatively biased due to the permanent emigration of marked individuals from the study area. In the absence of a robust analytical solution, researchers typically sidestep this problem by simply reporting estimates using the term "apparent survival." Here, we present a hierarchical Bayesian multistate model designed to estimate true survival by accounting for predicted rates of permanent emigration. Initially we use dispersal kernels to generate spatial projections of dispersal probability around each capture location. From these projections, we estimate emigration probability for each marked individual and use the resulting values to generate bias-adjusted survival estimates from individual capture histories. When tested using simulated data sets featuring variable detection probabilities, survival rates, and dispersal patterns, the model consistently eliminated negative biases shown by apparent survival estimates from standard models. When applied to a case study concerning juvenile survival in the endangered Cape Sable Seaside Sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis), bias-adjusted survival estimates increased more than twofold above apparent survival estimates. Our approach is applicable to any capture-mark-recapture study design and should be particularly valuable for organisms with dispersive juvenile life stages.

  1. Strategic Curricular Decisions in Butler University's Actuarial Science Major

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilson, Christopher James

    2014-01-01

    We describe specific curricular decisions employed at Butler University that have resulted in student achievement in the actuarial science major. The paper includes a discussion of how these decisions might be applied in the context of a new actuarial program.

  2. Survival rate after emergency diagnosis of cancer is 'shocking'.

    PubMed

    2015-12-01

    ONE QUARTER of patients diagnosed with cancer after attending a London emergency department will die within two months, latest research suggests. Study author Kathy Pritchard-Jones, chief medical officer for London Cancer, said the 'shocking figures' confirm that early diagnosis makes a huge difference to the chances of surviving cancer.

  3. Actuarial considerations of medical malpractice evaluations in M&As.

    PubMed

    Frese, Richard C

    2014-11-01

    To best project an actuarial estimate for medical malpractice exposure for a merger and acquisition, a organization's leaders should consider the following factors, among others: How to support an unbiased actuarial estimation. Experience of the actuary. The full picture of the organization's malpractice coverage. The potential for future loss development. Frequency and severity trends.

  4. 75 FR 63505 - Renewal of Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-10-15

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Renewal of Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries. ACTION: Renewal of Advisory Committee. ] SUMMARY: The Joint Board for the...

  5. 26 CFR 300.7 - Enrollment of enrolled actuary fee.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Enrollment of enrolled actuary fee. 300.7... AND ADMINISTRATION USER FEES § 300.7 Enrollment of enrolled actuary fee. (a) Applicability. This section applies to the initial enrollment of enrolled actuaries with the Joint Board for the Enrollment...

  6. 29 CFR 4231.10 - Actuarial calculations and assumptions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 9 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Actuarial calculations and assumptions. 4231.10 Section... MULTIEMPLOYER PLANS § 4231.10 Actuarial calculations and assumptions. (a) Most recent valuation. All calculations required by this part must be based on the most recent actuarial valuation as of the date...

  7. Recruiting and Advising Challenges in Actuarial Science

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Case, Bettye Anne; Guan, Yuanying Michelle; Paris, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    Some challenges to increasing actuarial science program size through recruiting broadly among potential students are identified. Possible solutions depend on the structures and culture of the school. Up to three student cohorts may result from partition of potential students by the levels of academic progress before program entry: students…

  8. 20 CFR 200.9 - Selection of members of Actuarial Advisory Committee.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... actuaries to serve on an Actuarial Advisory Committee. This section describes how the two actuaries are selected. (b) Carrier actuary. One member of the Actuarial Advisory Committee shall be selected by... railroad mileage within the United States. (c) Railway labor actuary. The other member of the...

  9. Doubly robust estimator for net survival rate in analyses of cancer registry data.

    PubMed

    Komukai, Sho; Hattori, Satoshi

    2017-03-01

    Cancer population studies based on cancer registry databases are widely conducted to address various research questions. In general, cancer registry databases do not collect information on cause of death. The net survival rate is defined as the survival rate if a subject would not die for any causes other than cancer. This counterfactual concept is widely used for the analyses of cancer registry data. Perme, Stare, and Estève (2012) proposed a nonparametric estimator of the net survival rate under the assumption that the censoring time is independent of the survival time and covariates. Kodre and Perme (2013) proposed an inverse weighting estimator for the net survival rate under the covariate-dependent censoring. An alternative approach to estimating the net survival rate under covariate-dependent censoring is to apply a regression model for the conditional net survival rate given covariates. In this article, we propose a new estimator for the net survival rate. The proposed estimator is shown to be doubly robust in the sense that it is consistent at least one of the regression models for survival time and for censoring time. We examine the theoretical and empirical properties of our proposed estimator by asymptotic theory and simulation studies. We also apply the proposed method to cancer registry data for gastric cancer patients in Osaka, Japan.

  10. Survival rates of female greater sage-grouse in autumn and winter in Southeastern Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anthony, R.G.; Willis, M.J.

    2009-01-01

    We estimated survival rates of 135 female greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on 3 study areas in southeastern Oregon, USA during autumn and winter for 3 years. We used known-fate models in Program MARK to test for differences among study areas and years, investigate the potential influence of weather, and compute estimates of overwinter survival. We found no evidence for differences in survival rates among study areas, which was contrary to our original hypothesis. There also were no declines in survival rates during fallwinter, but survival rates varied among years and time within years. Average survival rate from October through February was 0.456 (SE 0.062). The coefficient of variation for this estimate was 13.6% indicating good precision in our estimates of survival. We found strong evidence for an effect of weather (i.e., mean daily min. temp, extreme min. temp, snow depth) on bi-weekly survival rates of sage-grouse for 2 of the study areas in one year. Extremely low (1,500 m) elevations. In contrast, we found no evidence for an influence of weather on the low-elevation study area or during the winters of 19891990 and 19911992. Extreme weather during winter can cause lower survival of adult female sage-grouse, so managers should be aware of these potential effects and reduce harvest rates accordingly.

  11. Punishing the lemon: the ethics of actuarial fairness.

    PubMed

    Jha, Saurabh

    2012-12-01

    The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act rejects the notion that actuarial fairness is a normative ideal. The author discusses the ethics of actuarial fairness and attempts to draw a distinction between actuarial fairness and moral fairness. The ethics of wellness programs are discussed with both actuarial fairness and moral fairness in mind. The potential tension between physicians and patients in the zealous pursuit of healthy goals is described. Finally, the logical end point of actuarial fairness with the widespread availability of genetic information is highlighted.

  12. Estimation of survival rates from band recoveries of mule deer in Colorado

    SciTech Connect

    White, G.C.; Bartmann, R.M.

    1983-01-01

    An attempt has been made to determine the survival rate of mule deer in the White River drainage basin in northwestern Colorado. During five winters, 1972-76, 1923 mule deer were trapped and marked. Survival rates were determined at yearly intervals. A FORTRAN program was used to perform the analysis.

  13. A multisite comparison of actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders.

    PubMed

    Harris, Grant T; Rice, Marnie E; Quinsey, Vernon L; Lalumière, Martin L; Boer, Douglas; Lang, Carol

    2003-09-01

    Four actuarial instruments for the prediction of violent and sexual reoffending (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide [VRAG], Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide [SORAG], Rapid Risk Assessment for Sex Offender Recidivism [RRASOR] and Static-99) were evaluated in 4 samples of sex offenders (N = 396). Although all 4 instruments predicted violent (including sexual) recidivism and recidivism known to be sexually motivated, areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were consistently higher for the VRAG and the SORAG. The instruments performed better when there were fewer missing items and follow-up time was fixed, with an ROC area up to .84 for the VRAG, for example, under such favorable conditions. Predictive accuracy was higher for child molesters than for rapists, especially for the Static-99 and the RRASOR. Consistent with past research, survival analyses revealed that those offenders high in both psychopathy and sexual deviance were an especially high-risk group.

  14. Variability in nest survival rates and implications to nesting studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Klett, A.T.; Johnson, D.H.

    1982-01-01

    We used four reasonably large samples (83-213) of Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and Blue-winged Teal (A. discors) nests on an interstate highway right-of-way in southcentral North Dakota to evaluate potential biases in hatch-rate estimates. Twelve consecutive, weekly searches for nests were conducted with a cable-chain drag in 1976 and 1977. Nests were revisited at weekly intervals. Four methods were used to estimate hatch rates for the four data sets: the Traditional Method, the Mayfield Method, and two modifications of the Mayfield Method that are sometimes appropriate when daily mortality rates of nests are not constant. Hatch rates and the average age of nests at discovery declined as the interval between searches decreased, suggesting that mortality rates were not constant in our samples. An analysis of variance indicated that daily mortality rates varied with the age of nests in all four samples. Mortality was generally highest during the early laying period, moderately high during the late laying period, and lowest during incubation. We speculate that this relationship of mortality to nest age might be due to the presence of hens at nests or to differences in the vulnerability of nest sites to predation. A modification of the Mayfield Method that accounts for age-related variation in nest mortality was most appropriate for our samples. We suggest methods for conducting nesting studies and estimating nest success for species possessing similar nesting habits.

  15. Survival rate of breast cancer patients in Malaysia: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Abdullah, Nor Aini; Wan Mahiyuddin, Wan Rozita; Muhammad, Nor Asiah; Ali, Zainudin Mohamad; Ibrahim, Lailanor; Ibrahim Tamim, Nor Saleha; Mustafa, Amal Nasir; Kamaluddin, Muhammad Amir

    2013-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer among Malaysian women. Other than hospital-based results, there are no documented population-based survival rates of Malaysian women for breast cancers. This population- based retrospective cohort study was therefore conducted. Data were obtained from Health Informatics Centre, Ministry of Health Malaysia, National Cancer Registry and National Registration Department for the period from 1st Jan 2000 to 31st December 2005. Cases were captured by ICD-10 and linked to death certificates to identify the status. Only complete data were analysed. Survival time was calculated from the estimated date of diagnosis to the date of death or date of loss to follow-up. Observed survival rates were estimated by Kaplan- Meier method using SPSS Statistical Software version 17. A total of 10,230 complete data sets were analysed. The mean age at diagnosis was 50.6 years old. The overall 5-year survival rate was 49% with median survival time of 68.1 months. Indian women had a higher survival rate of 54% compared to Chinese women (49%) and Malays (45%). The overall 5-year survival rate of breast cancer patient among Malaysian women was still low for the cohort of 2000 to 2005 as compared to survival rates in developed nations. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance the strategies for early detection and intervention.

  16. Is the rate of metabolic ageing and survival determined by Basal metabolic rate in the zebra finch?

    PubMed

    Rønning, Bernt; Moe, Børge; Berntsen, Henrik H; Noreen, Elin; Bech, Claus

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between energy metabolism and ageing is of great interest because aerobic metabolism is the primary source of reactive oxygen species which is believed to be of major importance in the ageing process. We conducted a longitudinal study on captive zebra finches where we tested the effect of age on basal metabolic rate (BMR), as well as the effect of BMR on the rate of metabolic ageing (decline in BMR with age) and survival. Basal metabolic rate declined with age in both sexes after controlling for the effect of body mass, indicating a loss of functionality with age. This loss of functionality could be due to accumulated oxidative damage, believed to increase with increasing metabolic rate, c.f. the free radical theory of ageing. If so, we would expect the rate of metabolic ageing to increase and survival to decrease with increasing BMR. However, we found no effect of BMR on the rate of metabolic ageing. Furthermore, survival was not affected by BMR in the males. In female zebra finches there was a tendency for survival to decrease with increasing BMR, but the effect did not reach significance (P<0.1). Thus, the effect of BMR on the rate of functional deterioration with age, if any, was not strong enough to influence neither the rate of metabolic ageing nor survival in the zebra finches.

  17. Trends in 5-year survival rates among breast cancer patients by hormone receptor status and stage

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Lu; Linden, Hannah M.; Anderson, Benjamin O.; Li, Christopher I.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Improvement in breast cancer survival has been observed in recent decades in the U.S., but it is unclear if similar survival gains are consistent across breast cancer subtypes, especially with regards to more advanced stages of the disease. Methods Data were from 13 population-based cancer registries participating in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program, consisting of women between 20–79 years of age diagnosed with invasive breast cancer between 1992 and 2008. 2-year (1992–2008) and 5-year (1992–2006) breast cancer cause-specific survival rates were calculated and stratified by estrogen receptor (ER)/progesterone receptor (PR) status, stage and race. Annual percent changes in survival rates were assessed. Results From 1992 through 1998–1999, 5-year and 2-year cause specific survival rates significantly improved across ER+/PR+, ER−/PR− and ER+/PR− subtypes, with an annual increase ranging from 0.5%–1.0%. From 1998–1999 to 2006, different patterns were observed by ER/PR subtypes with survival rates slightly improving for ER+/PR+, continuing to improve at a rate of 0.5% per year for ER−/PR−, and dropping 0.3% annually for ER+/PR− No significant survival gains were experienced by patients with ER−/PR+ cancer during the study period. In terms of advanced diseases, greatest annual increases in survival rates were seen for patients with stage III–IV ER+/PR+ and ER−/PR− tumors but less progress was observed for advanced ER+/PR− breast cancers. Conclusion Steady improvements in survival rates for breast cancer have been achieved over the past several decades. However, 5-year survival rates for stage IV disease remained dismally below 20% for most ER/PR subtypes. PMID:25164974

  18. Monitoring survival rates of Swainson's Thrush Catharus ustulatus at multiple spatial scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rosenberg, D.K.; DeSante, D.F.; McKelvey, K.S.; Hines, J.E.

    1999-01-01

    We estimated survival rates of Swainson's Thrush, a common, neotropical, migratory landbird, at multiple spatial scales, using data collected in the western USA from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship Programme. We evaluated statistical power to detect spatially heterogeneous survival rates and exponentially declining survival rates among spatial scales with simulated populations parameterized from results of the Swainson's Thrush analyses. Models describing survival rates as constant across large spatial scales did not fit the data. The model we chose as most appropriate to describe survival rates of Swainson's Thrush allowed survival rates to vary among Physiographic Provinces, included a separate parameter for the probability that a newly captured bird is a resident individual in the study population, and constrained capture probability to be constant across all stations. Estimated annual survival rates under this model varied from 0.42 to 0.75 among Provinces. The coefficient of variation of survival estimates ranged from 5.8 to 20% among Physiographic Provinces. Statistical power to detect exponentially declining trends was fairly low for small spatial scales, although large annual declines (3% of previous year's rate) were likely to be detected when monitoring was conducted for long periods of time (e.g. 20 years). Although our simulations and field results are based on only four years of date from a limited number and distribution of stations, it is likely that they illustrate genuine difficulties inherent to broadscale efforts to monitor survival rates of territorial landbirds. In particular, our results suggest that more attention needs to be paid to sampling schemes of monitoring programmes particularly regarding the trade-off between precison and potential bias o parameter estimates at varying spatial scales.

  19. Monitoring survival rates of Swainson's Thrush Catharus ustulatus at multiple spatial scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rosenberg, D.K.; DeSante, D.F.; McKelvey, K.S.; Hines, J.E.

    1999-01-01

    We estimated survival rates of Swainson's Thrush, a common, neotropical, migratory landbird, at multiple spatial scales, using data collected in the western USA from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship Programme. We evaluated statistical power to detect spatially heterogeneous survival rates and exponentially declining survival rates among spatial scales with simulated populations parameterized from results of the Swainson's Thrush analyses. Models describing survival rates as constant across large spatial scales did not fit the data. The model we chose as most appropriate to describe survival rates of Swainson's Thrush allowed survival rates to vary among Physiographic Provinces, included a separate parameter for the probability that a newly captured bird is a resident individual in the study population, and constrained capture probability to be constant across all stations. Estimated annual survival rates under this model varied from 0.42 to 0.75 among Provinces. The coefficient of variation of survival estimates ranged from 5.8 to 20% among Physiographic Provinces. Statistical power to detect exponentially declining trends was fairly low for small spatial scales, although large annual declines (3% of previous year's rate) were likely to be detected when monitoring was conducted for long periods of time (e.g. 20 years). Although our simulations and field results are based on only four years of data from a limited number and distribution of stations, it is likely that they illustrate genuine difficulties inherent to broadscale efforts to monitor survival rates of territorial landbirds. In particular, our results suggest that more attention needs to be paid to sampling schemes of monitoring programmes, particularly regarding the trade-off between precision and potential bias of parameter estimates at varying spatial scales.

  20. Actuarial considerations on genetic testing.

    PubMed Central

    Le Grys, D J

    1997-01-01

    In the UK the majority of life insurers employ relatively liberal underwriting standards so that people can easily gain access to life assurance cover. Up to 95% of applicants are accepted at standard terms. If genetic testing becomes widespread then the buying habits of the public may change. Proportionately more people with a predisposition to major types of disease may take life assurance cover while people with no predisposition may take proportionately less. A model is used to show the possible effect. However, the time-scales are long and the mortality of assured people is steadily improving. The change in buying habits may result in the rate of improvement slowing down. In the whole population, the improvement in mortality is likely to continue and could improve faster if widespread genetic testing results in earlier diagnosis and treatment. Life insurers would not call for genetic tests and need not see the results of previous tests except for very large sums assured. In the UK, life insurers are unlikely to change their underwriting standards, and are extremely unlikely to bring in basic premium rating systems that give discounts on the premium or penalty points according to peoples genetic profile. The implications of widespread genetic testing on medical insurance and some health insurance covers may be more extreme. PMID:9304671

  1. Low survival rates of Swan Geese (Anser cygnoides) estimated from neck-collar resighting and telemetry

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Choi, Chang-Yong; Lee, Ki-Sup; Poyarkov, Nikolay D.; Park, Jin-Young; Lee, Hansoo; Takekawa, John; Smith, Lacy M.; Ely, Craig R.; Wang, Xin; Cao, Lei; Fox, Anthony D.; Goroshko, Oleg; Batbayar, Nyambayar; Prosser, Diann J.; Xiao, Xiangming

    2016-01-01

    Waterbird survival rates are a key component of demographic modeling used for effective conservation of long-lived threatened species. The Swan Goose (Anser cygnoides) is globally threatened and the most vulnerable goose species endemic to East Asia due to its small and rapidly declining population. To address a current knowledge gap in demographic parameters of the Swan Goose, available datasets were compiled from neck-collar resighting and telemetry studies, and two different models were used to estimate their survival rates. Results of a mark-resighting model using 15 years of neck-collar data (2001–2015) provided age-dependent survival rates and season-dependent encounter rates with a constant neck-collar retention rate. Annual survival rate was 0.638 (95% CI: 0.378–0.803) for adults and 0.122 (95% CI: 0.028–0.286) for first-year juveniles. Known-fate models were applied to the single season of telemetry data (autumn 2014) and estimated a mean annual survival rate of 0.408 (95% CI: 0.152–0.670) with higher but non-significant differences for adults (0.477) vs. juveniles (0.306). Our findings indicate that Swan Goose survival rates are comparable to the lowest rates reported for European or North American goose species. Poor survival may be a key demographic parameter contributing to their declining trend. Quantitative threat assessments and associated conservation measures, such as restricting hunting, may be a key step to mitigate for their low survival rates and maintain or enhance their population.

  2. Aircrew Survival Equipmentman 1 and C. NAVPERS 10360-D. Rate Training Manual.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bureau of Naval Personnel, Washington, DC.

    A guide for advancement and training in the Aircrew Survival Equipmentman rating for enlisted personnel of the Regular Navy and the Naval Reserve is provided in this training manual. The chapters outline the qualifications necessary and the responsibilities of Aircrew Survival Equipmentmen involved in blueprint reading and the development of…

  3. Aircrew Survival Equipmentman 3 & 2; Naval Training Command Rate Training Manual.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Naval Training Command, Pensacola, FL.

    The training manual is one of a series prepared for enlisted personnel of the Regular Navy and the Naval Reserve who are training for performance proficiency and studying for advancement in the Aircrew Survival Equipmentman (PR) rating. The illustrated and indexed manual focuses on the personnel parachute and other related survival equipment.…

  4. Application of Artificial Neural Network in Predicting the Survival Rate of Gastric Cancer Patients

    PubMed Central

    Biglarian, A; Hajizadeh, E; Kazemnejad, A; Zali, MR

    2011-01-01

    Background: The aim of this study was to predict the survival rate of Iranian gastric cancer patients using the Cox proportional hazard and artificial neural network models as well as comparing the ability of these approaches in predicting the survival of these patients. Methods: In this historical cohort study, the data gathered from 436 registered gastric cancer patients who have had surgery between 2002 and 2007 at the Taleghani Hospital (a referral center for gastrointestinal cancers), Tehran, Iran, to predict the survival time using Cox proportional hazard and artificial neural network techniques. Results: The estimated one-year, two-year, three-year, four-year and five-year survival rates of the patients were 77.9%, 53.1%, 40.8%, 32.0%, and 17.4%, respectively. The Cox regression analysis revealed that the age at diagnosis, high-risk behaviors, extent of wall penetration, distant metastasis and tumor stage were significantly associated with the survival rate of the patients. The true prediction of neural network was 83.1%, and for Cox regression model, 75.0%. Conclusion: The present study shows that neural network model is a more powerful statistical tool in predicting the survival rate of the gastric cancer patients compared to Cox proportional hazard regression model. Therefore, this model recommended for the predicting the survival rate of these patients. PMID:23113076

  5. 38 CFR 3.23 - Improved pension rates-Veterans and surviving spouses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... income of the veteran or surviving spouse. (Authority: 38 U.S.C. 1521, 1541) (c) Mexican border period and World War I veterans. The applicable maximum annual rate payable to a Mexican border period...

  6. 38 CFR 3.23 - Improved pension rates-Veterans and surviving spouses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... income of the veteran or surviving spouse. (Authority: 38 U.S.C. 1521, 1541) (c) Mexican border period and World War I veterans. The applicable maximum annual rate payable to a Mexican border period...

  7. 38 CFR 3.23 - Improved pension rates-Veterans and surviving spouses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... income of the veteran or surviving spouse. (Authority: 38 U.S.C. 1521, 1541) (c) Mexican border period and World War I veterans. The applicable maximum annual rate payable to a Mexican border period...

  8. 38 CFR 3.23 - Improved pension rates-Veterans and surviving spouses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... income of the veteran or surviving spouse. (Authority: 38 U.S.C. 1521, 1541) (c) Mexican border period and World War I veterans. The applicable maximum annual rate payable to a Mexican border period...

  9. Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Stanley, T.R.

    2011-01-01

    We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark-recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (??) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (?? = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

  10. Dose-rate dependent stochastic effects in radiation cell-survival models.

    PubMed

    Sachs, R K; Hlatky, L R

    1990-01-01

    When cells are subjected to ionizing radiation the specific energy rate (microscopic analog of dose-rate) varies from cell to cell. Within one cell, this rate fluctuates during the course of time; a crossing of a sensitive cellular site by a high energy charged particle produces many ionizations almost simultaneously, but during the interval between events no ionizations occur. In any cell-survival model one can incorporate the effect of such fluctuations without changing the basic biological assumptions. Using stochastic differential equations and Monte Carlo methods to take into account stochastic effects we calculated the dose-survival relationships in a number of current cell survival models. Some of the models assume quadratic misrepair; others assume saturable repair enzyme systems. It was found that a significant effect of random fluctuations is to decrease the theoretically predicted amount of dose-rate sparing. In the limit of low dose-rates neglecting the stochastic nature of specific energy rates often leads to qualitatively misleading results by overestimating the surviving fraction drastically. In the opposite limit of acute irradiation, analyzing the fluctuations in rates merely amounts to analyzing fluctuations in total specific energy via the usual microdosimetric specific energy distribution function, and neglecting fluctuations usually underestimates the surviving fraction. The MOnte Carlo methods interpolate systematically between the low dose-rate and high dose-rate limits. As in other approaches, the slope of the survival curve at low dose-rates is virtually independent of dose and equals the initial slope of the survival curve for acute radiation.

  11. Failure to Achieve a PSA Level {<=}1 ng/mL After Neoadjuvant LHRHA Therapy Predicts for Lower Biochemical Control Rate and Overall Survival in Localized Prostate Cancer Treated With Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Mitchell, Darren M. McAleese, Jonathan; Park, Richard M.; Stewart, David P.; Stranex, Stephen; Eakin, Ruth L.; Houston, Russell F.; O'Sullivan, Joe M.

    2007-12-01

    Purpose: To investigate whether failure to suppress the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level to {<=}1 ng/mL after {>=}2 months of neoadjuvant luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonist therapy in patients scheduled to undergo external beam radiotherapy for localized prostate carcinoma is associated with reduced biochemical failure-free survival. Methods and Materials: A retrospective case note review of consecutive patients with intermediate- or high-risk localized prostate cancer treated between January 2001 and December 2002 with neoadjuvant hormonal deprivation therapy, followed by concurrent hormonal therapy and radiotherapy was performed. Patient data were divided for analysis according to whether the PSA level in Week 1 of radiotherapy was {<=}1.0 ng/mL. Biochemical failure was determined using the American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology (Phoenix) definition. Results: A total of 119 patients were identified. The PSA level after neoadjuvant hormonal deprivation therapy was {<=}1 ng/mL in 67 patients and >1 ng/mL in 52. At a median follow-up of 49 months, the 4-year actuarial biochemical failure-free survival rate was 84% vs. 60% (p = 0.0016) in favor of the patients with a PSA level after neoadjuvant hormonal deprivation therapy of {<=}1 ng/mL. The overall survival rate was 94% vs. 77.5% (p = 0.0045), and the disease-specific survival rate at 4 years was 98.5% vs. 82.5%. Conclusions: The results of our study have shown that patients with a PSA level >1 ng/mL at the beginning of external beam radiotherapy after {>=}2 months of neoadjuvant luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonist therapy have a significantly greater rate of biochemical failure and lower survival rate compared with those with a PSA level of {<=}1 ng/mL. Patients without adequate PSA suppression should be considered a higher risk group and considered for dose escalation or the use of novel treatments.

  12. Improving village poultry's survival rate through community-based poultry health management: evidence from Benin.

    PubMed

    Sodjinou, Epiphane; Henningsen, Arne; Koudande, Olorounto Delphin

    2013-01-01

    Community-based poultry health management (CBM) is a strategy for village poultry improvement based on the installment of "poultry interest groups" in experimental villages. These groups serve as a channel for the dissemination of village poultry improvement technologies. The use of CBM is due to the fact that village poultry farming is practiced in a total or partial scavenging system which gives the impression that all the birds in the village belong to the same flock. Accordingly, actions that target all farmers of the same village may have a larger impact on the village poultry's survival rate than actions that target individual producers. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of CBM on the survival rate of village poultry. Based on data collected on 353 poultry keepers, the study shows that CBM significantly improves the survival rate of village poultry. The adoption of technologies--poultry vaccination, construction of henhouses, and improved feed--disseminated through the CBM also significantly improves the survival rate. The access to markets for inputs and veterinary services is also important in improving the survival rate of poultry. Finally, the study suggests that governments and development agencies can improve village poultry survival rates by investing in the dissemination of information regarding best husbandry management practices through approaches that rely on the community such as CBM because CBM groups serve as channels for the dissemination of village poultry improvement technologies.

  13. Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age-structure data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.

    2014-01-01

    It has long been recognized that age-structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age-specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age-specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age-specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age-structure data.

  14. Psychotherapy: theory, experience, and personalized actuarial tables.

    PubMed

    Leventhal, D B; Shemberg, K M

    1977-12-01

    This paper addresses the issue of the role of theory in the actual application of psychotherapeutic operations. Within the present framework, psychotherapeutic effectiveness is seen as an empirical, actuarial process which occurs in an interpersonal setting separate from theoretical considerations. The role of theory is discussed and a rationale for the coexistence of equally 'effective' contradictory theories is presented. Suggestions for future research in the area of behaviour change are made and an argument for the eventual development of a 'therapeutic cookbook' is presented.

  15. Survival rates, mortality causes, and habitats of Pennsylvania white-tailed deer fawns

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vreeland, J.K.; Diefenbach, D.R.; Wallingford, B.D.

    2004-01-01

    Estimates of survival and cause-specific mortality of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawns are important to population management. We quantified cause-specific mortality, survival rates, and habitat characteristics related to fawn survival in a forested landscape and an agricultural landscape in central Pennsylvania. We captured and radiocollared neonatal (0.05). Predation accounted for 46.2% (95% Cl = 37.6-56.7%) of 106 mortalities through 34 weeks. We attributed 32.7% (95% Cl = 21.9-48.6%) and 36.7% (95% Cl = 25.5-52.9%) of 49 predation events to black bears (Ursus americanus) and coyotes (Canis latrans], respectively. Natural causes, excluding predation, accounted for 27.4% (95% Cl = 20.1-37.3) of mortalities. Fawn survival in Pennsylvania was comparable to reported survival in forested and agricultural regions in northern portions of the white-tailed deer range. We have no evidence to suggest that the fawn survival rates we observed were preventing population growth. Because white-tailed deer are habitat generalists, home-range-scale habitat characteristics may be unrelated to fawn survival; therefore, future studies should consider landscape-related characteristics on fawn survival.

  16. Effects of habitat disturbance on survival rates of softshell turtles (Apalone spinifera) in an urban stream

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Plummer, M.V.; Krementz, D.G.; Powell, L.A.; Mills, N.E.

    2008-01-01

    We monitored Spiny Softshell Turtles (Apalone spinifera) using mark-recapture during 1994-2005 in Gin Creek, Searcy, Arkansas. In 1997-2000 the creek bed and riparian zone were bulldozed in an effort to remove debris and improve water flow. This disturbance appeared to reduce the quantity and quality of turtle habitat. We tested for the potential effect of this habitat disturbance on the survival rates of marked turtles. We estimated annual survival rates for the population using models that allowed for variation in survival by state of maturation, year, and effects of the disturbance; we evaluated two different models of the disturbance impact. The first disturbance model incorporated a single change in survival rates, following the disturbance, whereas the second disturbance model incorporated three survival rates: pre- and postdisturbance, as well as a short-term decline during the disturbance. We used a state-transition model for our mark-recapture analysis, as softshells transition from juveniles to adults in a variable period of time. Our analysis indicated that survival varied by maturation state and was independent of a time trend or the disturbance. Annual survival rates were lower for juveniles (S?? = 0.717, SE = 0.039) than for adults (S?? = 0.836, SE = 0.025). Despite the dramatic habitat disturbance, we found no negative effects on survival rates. Our results demonstrate that, like a few other freshwater turtle species known to thrive in urban environments, populations of A. spinifera are resilient and can persist in urban environments despite periodic habitat disturbances. Copyright 2008 Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles.

  17. Banding reference areas and survival rates of green-winged teal, 1950-1989

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chu, D.S.; Nichols, J.D.; Hestbeck, J.B.; Hines, J.E.

    1995-01-01

    The green-winged teal (Anas crecca carolinensis) is an important harvest species, yet we know relatively little about its population ecology. We investigated aspects of green-winged teal population ecology of potential importance to waterfowl managers. We used recoveries of green-winged teal banded during winter (1950-89) to establish banding reference areas and estimate survival and band recovery rates. We used cluster analysis based on similarities in recovery patterns to group banding degree blocks into 8 minor and 5 major reference areas describing the principal wintering range of green-winged teal in North America. We then estimated survival and recovery rates of green-winged teal banded in these areas. Mean annual survival rate estimates across years and reference areas were similar (P gt 0.05) for males (0.55, cxa SE = 0.022) and females (0.51, cxa SE = 0.057). Mean annual recovery rate estimates were larger for males (0.033, cxa SE = 0.0017) than for females (0.024, cxa SE = 0.0024) (P lt 0.01). There was little evidence of temporal variation in survival or recovery rates for most datasets. There was evidence of geographic variation in survival rates among major reference areas for males (P = 0.04) but not for females (P = 0.30). We recommend that analyses be conducted on greenwinged teal banded during preseason to further investigate possible sex specificity of survival rates and to address questions about the relationship between harvest rates and survival.

  18. Association between Higher Rates of Cardioprotective Drug Use and Survival in Patients on Dialysis

    PubMed Central

    Tang, Yuexin; Brooks, John M.; Wetmore, James B.; Shireman, Theresa I.

    2015-01-01

    Background While cardiovascular (CV) disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients on chronic dialysis, utilization rates of cardioprotective drugs for dialysis patients remain low. This study sought to determine whether higher rates of cardioprotective drug use among dialysis patients might increase survival. Methods A retrospective cohort of incident dialysis patients (n = 50,468) with dual eligibility for U.S. Medicare and Medicaid was constructed using USRDS data linked with billing claims. Medication exposures included angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers (ACEIs/ARBs), β-blockers, calcium channel blockers (CCBs), and HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins) prescribed within 90 days of dialysis initiation. The outcomes were one- and two-year survival and CV event-free survival. Variation in treatment rates based on local area practice styles were used as instruments in instrumental variable (IV) estimation, yielding average treatment effect estimates for patients whose treatment choices were affected by local area practice styles. Results Patients aged 65 years and older comprised 47.4% of the sample, while 59.5% were female and 35.0% were white. The utilization rate was 40.7% for ACEIs/ARBs, 43.0% for β-blockers, 50.7% for CCBs and 26.4% for statins. The local area practice style instruments were highly significantly related to cardioprotective drug use in dialysis patients (Chow-F values > 10). IV estimates showed only that higher rates of β-blockers increased one-year survival (β = 0.161, P-value = 0.020) and CV event-free survival (β = 0.189, P-value = 0.033), but that higher rates of CCBs decreased two-year CV event-free survival (β = -0.520, P-value = 0.009). Conclusions This study suggests that higher utilization rates of β-blockers might yield higher survival rates for dialysis patients. However, higher rates of the other drugs studied had no correlations with survival, and higher CCB rates

  19. Modeling the effect of toe clipping on treefrog survival: Beyond the return rate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Waddle, J.H.; Rice, K.G.; Mazzotti, F.J.; Percival, H.F.

    2008-01-01

    Some studies have described a negative effect of toe clipping on return rates of marked anurans, but the return rate is limited in that it does not account for heterogeneity of capture probabilities. We used open population mark-recapture models to estimate both apparent survival (ϕ) and the recapture probability (p) of two treefrog species individually marked by clipping 2–4 toes. We used information-theoretic model selection to examine the effect of toe clipping on survival while accounting for variation in capture probability. The model selection results indicate strong support for an effect of toe clipping on survival of Green Treefrogs (Hyla cinerea) and only limited support for an effect of toe clipping on capture probability. We estimate there was a mean absolute decrease in survival of 5.02% and 11.16% for Green Treefrogs with three and four toes removed, respectively, compared to individuals with just two toes removed. Results for Squirrel Treefrogs (Hyla squirella) indicate little support for an effect of toe clipping on survival but may indicate some support for a negative effect on capture probability. We believe that the return rate alone should not be used to examine survival of marked animals because constant capture probability must be assumed, and our examples demonstrate how capture probability may vary over time and among groups. Mark-recapture models provide a method for estimating the effect of toe clipping on anuran survival in situations where unique marks are applied.

  20. The impact factors on 5-year survival rate in patients operated with oral cancer

    PubMed Central

    Geum, Dong-Ho; Roh, Young-Chea; Yoon, Sang-Yong; Kim, Hyo-Geon; Lee, Jung-Han; Song, Jae-Min; Lee, Jae-Yeol; Hwang, Dae-Seok; Kim, Yong-Deok; Shin, Sang-Hun; Chung, In-Kyo

    2013-01-01

    Objectives The purpose of this study is to analyze clinical impact factors on the survival rate, and to acquire basic clinical data for the diagnosis of oral cancer, for a determination of the treatment plan with long-term survival in oral cancer patients. Materials and Methods Through a retrospective review of the medical records, the factors for long-term survival rate were analyzed. Thirty-seven patients, among patient database with oral cancer treated in the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery at Pusan National University Hospital within a period from March 1998 to March 2008, were selected within the study criteria and were followed-up for more than 5 years. The analyzed factors were gender, age, drinking, smoking, primary tumor site, type of cancer, TNM stage, recurrence of affected region, and metastasis of cervical lymph node. The 5-year survival rate on the impact factors was calculated statistically using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results By classification of clinical TNM at the 1st visit, there were 11 (29.7%) cases for stage I, 11 (29.7%) cases for stage II, 3 (8.1%) cases for stage III, and 12 (32.5%) cases for stage IV. The 5-year survival rate of total oral cancer patients after the operation were 75.7%, pathological TNM stage related 5-year survival rate were as follows: stage I 90.0%, stage II 81.8%, stage III 100% and stage IV 45.5%; in which the survival rate difference by each stage was significantly observed. The recurrence of cervical lymph node was the significant impact factor for the survival rate, because only 30.0% the survival rate in recurrent cases existed. During the follow-up, there were 15 (40.5%) patients with confirmed recurrence, and the 5-year survival rate of these patients was decreased as 46.7%. Conclusion The classification of clinical and pathological TNM stage, local recurrence after surgery, and metastasis of cervical lymph node after surgery were analyzed as the 3 most significant factors. PMID:24471047

  1. Survival rate of gastric cancer in Iran; a systematic review and meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Veisani, Yousef; Delpisheh, Ali

    2016-01-01

    Aim: In this study, we aimed to estimate one- to five-year survival rates in Iranian patients with gastric cancer (GC). In addition, we preformed subgroup analyses and meta-regression to explore possible sources of heterogeneity between studies. Background: According to literatures, there has been increasing attention to the long-term survival rate in patients with GC in Iran. However, results have been inconsistent and remain controversial in overall survival rates. Patients and methods: Literature searches were conducted using PubMed, Scopus, and ISI, as well as Magiran, Medlib, SID, and Iran Medex databases. Studies were pooled and summary one to five survival rates were calculated. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to explore possible sources of heterogeneity among studies. Subgroup analyses were also conducted. Analyses were conducted using the STATA statistical software package. Results: Final analysis of 29361 patients from 26 eligible studies was performed. The overall survival rate (one to five years) in all studies, by meta-analysis of 24, 14, 23, 12 and 22 studies were 52%, 31%, 24%, 22%, and 15%, respectively. Meta-regression analysis showed an increase in one- and five-year survival rate over the time (Reg Coef = 0.016, p= 0.04) and (Reg Coef= 0.021, p= 0.049), respectively. Positive heterogeneity was observed between quality of papers and data sources (P<0.001). Conclusion: More than half of GC deaths happened in the first year at diagnosis, and another 30% plus they occurred during the second year after confirmed diagnosis. Our results admit lower survival rates in Iran, similar to other developing countries. PMID:27099666

  2. Program CONTRAST--A general program for the analysis of several survival or recovery rate estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    This manual describes the use of program CONTRAST, which implements a generalized procedure for the comparison of several rate estimates. This method can be used to test both simple and composite hypotheses about rate estimates, and we discuss its application to multiple comparisons of survival rate estimates. Several examples of the use of program CONTRAST are presented. Program CONTRAST will run on IBM-cimpatible computers, and requires estimates of the rates to be tested, along with associated variance and covariance estimates.

  3. Metabolic rate suppression as a mechanism for surviving environmental challenge in fish.

    PubMed

    Richards, Jeffrey G

    2010-01-01

    The ability to reduce metabolic rate during exposure to environmental stress, termed metabolic rate suppression, is thought to be an important component to enhance survival in many organisms. Metabolic rate suppression can be achieved through modifications to behavior, physiology, and cellular biochemistry, all of which act to reduce whole organisms energy expenditure. This chapter will critically evaluate the use of metabolic rate suppression as a response to environmental challenge in fish using three metabolic states: aestivation, hypoxia/anoxia exposure, and diapause.

  4. Demography of forest birds in Panama: How do transients affect estimates of survival rates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brawn, J.D.; Karr, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Robinson, W.D.; Adams, N.J.; Slotow, R.H.

    1999-01-01

    Estimates of annual survival rates of neotropical birds have proven controversial. Traditionally, tropical birds were thought to have high survival rates for their size, but analyses of a multispecies assemblage from Panama by Karr et al. (1990) provided a counterexample to that view. One criticism of that study has been that the estimates were biased by transient birds captured only once as they passed through the area being sampled. New models that formally adjust for transient individuals have been developed since 1990. Preliminary analyses indicate that these models are indeed useful in modelling the data from Panama. Nonetheless, there is considerable interspecific variation and overall estimates of annual survival rates for understorey birds in Panama remain lower than those from other studies in the Neotropics and well below the rates long assumed for tropical birds (i.e. > 0.80). Therefore, tropical birds may not have systematically higher survival rates than temperate-zone species. Variation in survival rates among tropical species suggests that theory based on a simple tradeoff between clutch size and longevity is inadequate. The demographic traits of birds in the tropics (and elsewhere) vary within and among species according to some combination of historical and ongoing ecological factors. Understanding these processes is the challenge for future work.

  5. Monitoring survival rates of landbirds at varying spatial scales: An application of the MAPS Program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rosenberg, D.K.; DeSante, D.F.; Hines, J.E.; Bonney, Rick; Pashley, David N.; Cooper, Robert; Niles, Larry

    2000-01-01

    Survivorship is a primary demographic parameter affecting population dynamics, and thus trends in species abundance. The Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program is a cooperative effort designed to monitor landbird demographic parameters. A principle goal of MAPS is to estimate annual survivorship and identify spatial patterns and temporal trends in these rates. We evaluated hypotheses of spatial patterns in survival rates among a collection of neighboring sampling sites, such as within national forests, among biogeographic provinces, and between breeding populations that winter in either Central or South America, and compared these geographic-specific models to a model of a common survival rate among all sampling sites. We used data collected during 1992-1995 from Swainson's Thrush (Cathorus ustulatus) populations in the western region of the United States. We evaluated the ability to detect spatial and temporal patterns of survivorship with simulated data. We found weak evidence of spatial differences in survival rates at the local scale of 'location,' which typically contained 3 mist-netting stations. There was little evidence of differences in survival rates among biogeographic provinces or between populations that winter in either Central or South America. When data were pooled for a regional estimate of survivorship, the percent relative bias due to pooling 'locations' was 12 years of monitoring. Detection of spatial patterns and temporal trends in survival rates from local to regional scales will provide important information for management and future research directed toward conservation of landbirds.

  6. An Application of Actuarial Methods in Psychiatric Diagnosis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Overall, John E.; Higgins, C. Wayne

    1977-01-01

    This research provides an initial evaluation of an actuarial diagnostic testing program that is being conducted by the Psychometric Laboratory at the University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas. It was hoped that an actuarial program for psychiatric diagnosis would create greater efficiency, lower cost, and superior validity with respect…

  7. Development of an Actuarial Science Program at Salisbury University

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wainwright, Barbara A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper focuses on the development of an actuarial science track for the mathematics major at Salisbury University (SU). A timeline from the initial investigation into such a program through the proposal and approval processes is shared for those who might be interested in developing a new actuarial program. It is wise to start small and take…

  8. Potential Utility of Actuarial Methods for Identifying Specific Learning Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Benson, Nicholas; Newman, Isadore

    2010-01-01

    This article describes how actuarial methods can supplant discrepancy models and augment problem solving and Response to Intervention (RTI) efforts by guiding the process of identifying specific learning disabilities (SLD). Actuarial methods use routinized selection and execution of formulas derived from empirically established relationships to…

  9. Economics of Life and Death: Mortality and Survival Rates for African-Americans.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Char, S. V.

    1994-01-01

    Examines the correlates of premature death, infant mortality rates, and associated costs for African Americans using census and other government data. There is unimpeachable evidence to confirm the inferior health and survival rates of African Americans at all age intervals. (SLD)

  10. Incidence and survival rates of ovarian cancer in low-income women in Sudan

    PubMed Central

    Abuidris, Dafalla O.; Weng, Hsin-Yi; Elhaj, Ahmed M.; Eltayeb, Elgaylani Abdallah; Elsanousi, Mohamed; Ibnoof, Rehab S.; Mohammed, Sulma I.

    2016-01-01

    Ovarian cancer is the second most common gynecological cancer worldwide. Little is known about the disease in Sudan. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the incidence rate, age and stage at diagnosis, and median survival time of patients presenting at the National Cancer Institute-University of Gezira (NCI-UG), Sudan. Data were collected in a prospective study of women with ovarian cancer over a period of eleven years of follow-up (between 2000 and 2011). Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the distribution of the demographics of the sample. The direct method was used to compute the age-standardized rate (ASR) using data from the 1966 and 2000 World Standard Populations (WSPs). The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate survival functions and the median survival time. Log-rank tests were used to statistically compare between the survival functions. There were steady increases in ovarian cancer incidence rates between 2000 and 2009, with a slight decline noted in 2010 and 2011. The patients' age range was 9–90. The age-specific incidence rate increased greatly in women aged 55 years or older. The majority of the patients had stage III or IV disease. The annual ASR using WSPs 1966 and 2000 as standard populations were 3.3 and 3.7 per 100,000 women, respectively. The median survival time was 31 months (95% confidence interval, 19–43). The 5-year cumulative survival rate was 38%. In Sudan, ovarian cancer affects postmenopausal women, akin to what is reported in the developed world with high incidence rates. Presenting with advanced stage disease is the predominant factor that results in a short survival time for women. PMID:28105363

  11. Estimating the personal cure rate of cancer patients using population-based grouped cancer survival data.

    PubMed

    Binbing Yu; Tiwari, Ram C; Feuer, Eric J

    2011-06-01

    Cancer patients are subject to multiple competing risks of death and may die from causes other than the cancer diagnosed. The probability of not dying from the cancer diagnosed, which is one of the patients' main concerns, is sometimes called the 'personal cure' rate. Two approaches of modelling competing-risk survival data, namely the cause-specific hazards approach and the mixture model approach, have been used to model competing-risk survival data. In this article, we first show the connection and differences between crude cause-specific survival in the presence of other causes and net survival in the absence of other causes. The mixture survival model is extended to population-based grouped survival data to estimate the personal cure rate. Using the colorectal cancer survival data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Programme, we estimate the probabilities of dying from colorectal cancer, heart disease, and other causes by age at diagnosis, race and American Joint Committee on Cancer stage.

  12. Demography of forest birds in Panama: How do transients affect estimates of survival rates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brawn, J.D.; Karr, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Robinson, W.D.; Adams, N.J.; Slotow, R.H.

    1998-01-01

    Estimates of annual survival rates for a multispecies sample of neotropical birds from Panama have proven controversial. Traditionally, tropical birds were thought to have high survival rates for their size, but analyses by Kart et al. (1990. Am. Nat. 136:277-91) contradicted that view, suggesting tropical birds may not have systematically high survival rates. A persistent criticism of that study has been that the estimates were biased by transient birds captured only once as they passed through the area being sampled. New models that formally adjust for transient individuals have been developed since 1990. Preliminary analyses using these models indicate that, despite some variation among species, overall estimates of survival rates for understory birds in Panama are not strongly affected by adjustments for transients. We also compare estimates of survival rates based on mark-recapture models with observations of colour-marked birds. The demographic traits of birds in the tropics (and elsewhere) vary within and among species according to combinations of historical and ongoing ecological factors. Understanding sources of this variation is the challenge for future work.

  13. Five-Year Cancer Survival Rates in Oklahoma from 1997 to 2008

    PubMed Central

    Campbell, Janis; Gandhi, Krupa; Pate, Anne; Janitz, Amanda; Anderson, Amber; Kinnard, Robin; Ding, Kai

    2016-01-01

    Introduction This study evaluated the five-year observed survival rates of American Indians/Alaskan Native, African American, and white cancer patients among various demographic characteristics in Oklahoma focusing on lung and bronchus, colon and rectum, female breast, and prostate for the cancer patients diagnosed between 1997 and 2008. Methods The five-year observed survival rates were calculated for overall cancer and specific cancer sites, using Kaplan-Meier method with data from the Oklahoma Central Cancer Registry. Results Overall, 51.5% patients diagnosed with cancer survived for five years. For specific sites we found: 79.2% for female breast cancer survived; 77.5% for prostate cancer; 12.9% for lung and bronchus cancer; and 49.9% for colorectal cancer. Conclusions The five-year observed survival rates in Oklahoma were consistent with national trends. Overall, cancer survival seems to be improving over time, but there remains disparity with the AA and AI/AN populations in contrast to whites in Oklahoma. PMID:27890941

  14. Look Different: Effect of Radiation Hormesis on the Survival Rate of Immunosuppressed Mice

    PubMed Central

    Alavi, M.; Taeb, S.; Okhovat, M.A.; Atefi, M.; Negahdari, F.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Hormesis is defined as the bio-positive response of something which is bio-negative in high doses. In the present study, the effect of radiation hormesis was evaluated on the survival rate of immunosuppressed BALB/c mice by Cyclosporine A. Material and Methods: We used 75 consanguine, male, BALB/c mice in this experiment. The first group received Technetium-99m and the second group was placed on a sample radioactive soil of Ramsar region (800Bq) for 20 days. The third group was exposed to X-rays and the fourth group was placed on the radioactive soil and then injected Technetium-99m. The last group was the sham irradiated control group. Finally, 30mg Cyclosporine A as the immunosuppressive agent was orally administered to all mice 48 hours after receiving X-rays and Technetium-99m. The mean survival rate of mice in each group was estimated during time. Results: A log rank test was run to determine if there were differences in the survival distribution for different groups and related treatments. According to the results, the survival rate of all pre-irradiated groups was more than the sham irradiated control group (p < .05). The highest survival time was related to the mice which were placed on the radioactive soil of Ramsar region for 20 days and then injected Technetium-99m. Conclusion: This study confirmed the presence of hormetic models and the enhancement of survival rate in immunosuppressed BALB/c mice as a consequence of low-dose irradiation. It is also revealed the positive synergetic radioadaptive response on survival rate of immunosuppressed animals. PMID:27853721

  15. Single gene and gene interaction effects on fertilization and embryonic survival rates in cattle.

    PubMed

    Khatib, H; Huang, W; Wang, X; Tran, A H; Bindrim, A B; Schutzkus, V; Monson, R L; Yandell, B S

    2009-05-01

    Decrease in fertility and conception rates is a major cause of economic loss and cow culling in dairy herds. Conception rate is the product of fertilization rate and embryonic survival rate. Identification of genetic factors that cause the death of embryos is the first step in eliminating this problem from the population and thereby increasing reproductive efficiency. A candidate pathway approach was used to identify candidate genes affecting fertilization and embryo survival rates using an in vitro fertilization experimental system. A total of 7,413 in vitro fertilizations were performed using oocytes from 504 ovaries and semen samples from 10 different bulls. Fertilization rate was calculated as the number of cleaved embryos 48 h postfertilization out of the total number of oocytes exposed to sperm. Survival rate of embryos was calculated as the number of blastocysts on d 7 of development out of the number of total embryos cultured. All ovaries were genotyped for 8 genes in the POU1F1 signaling pathway. Single-gene analysis revealed significant associations of GHR, PRLR, STAT5A, and UTMP with survival rate and of POU1F1, GHR, STAT5A, and OPN with fertilization rate. To further characterize the contribution of the entire integrated POU1F1 pathway to fertilization and early embryonic survival, a model selection procedure was applied. Comparisons among the different models showed that interactions between adjacent genes in the pathway revealed a significant contribution to the variation in fertility traits compared with other models that analyzed only bull information or only genes without interactions. Moreover, some genes that were not significant in the single-gene analysis showed significant effects in the interaction analysis. Thus, we propose that single genes as well as an entire pathway can be used in selection programs to improve reproduction performance in dairy cattle.

  16. Increasing Winter Maximal Metabolic Rate Improves Intrawinter Survival in Small Birds.

    PubMed

    Petit, Magali; Clavijo-Baquet, Sabrina; Vézina, François

    Small resident bird species living at northern latitudes increase their metabolism in winter, and this is widely assumed to improve their chances of survival. However, the relationship between winter metabolic performance and survival has yet to be demonstrated. Using capture-mark-recapture, we followed a population of free-living black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) over 3 yr and evaluated their survival probability within and among winters. We also measured the size-independent body mass (Ms), hematocrit (Hct), basal metabolic rate (BMR), and maximal thermogenic capacity (Msum) and investigated how these parameters influenced survival within and among winters. Results showed that survival probability was high and constant both within (0.92) and among (0.96) winters. They also showed that while Ms, Hct, and BMR had no significant influence, survival was positively related to Msum-following a sigmoid relationship-within but not among winter. Birds expressing an Msum below 1.26 W (i.e., similar to summer levels) had a <50% chance of survival, while birds with an Msum above 1.35 W had at least a 90% chance of surviving through the winter. Our data therefore suggest that black-capped chickadees that are either too slow or unable to adjust their phenotype from summer to winter have little chances of survival and thus that seasonal upregulation of metabolic performance is highly beneficial. This study is the first to document in an avian system the relationship between thermogenic capacity and winter survival, a proxy of fitness.

  17. Temperature, Larval Diet, and Density Effects on Development Rate and Survival of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae)

    PubMed Central

    Couret, Jannelle; Dotson, Ellen; Benedict, Mark Q.

    2014-01-01

    Many environmental factors, biotic and abiotic interact to influence organismal development. Given the importance of Aedes aegypti as a vector of human pathogens including dengue and yellow fever, understanding the impact of environmental factors such as temperature, resource availability, and intraspecific competition during development is critical for population control purposes. Despite known associations between developmental traits and factors of diet and density, temperature has been considered the primary driver of development rate and survival. To determine the relative importance of these critical factors, wide gradients of conditions must be considered. We hypothesize that 1) diet and density, as well as temperature influence the variation in development rate and survival, 2) that these factors interact, and this interaction is also necessary to understand variation in developmental traits. Temperature, diet, density, and their two-way interactions are significant factors in explaining development rate variation of the larval stages of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. These factors as well as two and three-way interactions are significantly associated with the development rate from hatch to emergence. Temperature, but not diet or density, significantly impacted juvenile mortality. Development time was heteroskedastic with the highest variation occurring at the extremes of diet and density conditions. All three factors significantly impacted survival curves of experimental larvae that died during development. Complex interactions may contribute to variation in development rate. To better predict variation in development rate and survival in Ae. aegypti, factors of resource availability and intraspecific density must be considered in addition, but never to the exclusion of temperature. PMID:24498328

  18. Age-specificity of black-capped chickadee survival rates: Analysis of capture-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Loery, G.; Pollock, K.H.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

    1987-01-01

    The ornithological literature indicates a widespread belief in two generalizations about the age-specificity of avian survival rates: (1) survival rates of young birds for some period following fledging are lower than those of adults, and (2) after reaching adulthood survival rates are constant for birds of all ages. There is a growing body of evidence in support of the first generalization, although little is known about how long the survival difference between young and adults lasts. This latter question can be addressed with capture-recapture or band recovery studies based on birds marked in the winter, but the inability to determine age in many species during winter has prevented the use of standard methods. There is very little evidence supporting the second generalization, and we are in need of methods and actual analyses that address this question. In the present paper we restate the two generalizations as hypotheses and test them using data from a wintering Black-capped Chickadee (Parus atricapillus) population in Connecticut, which has been studied by Loery for 26 yr. We use a cohort-based Jolly-Seber approach, which should be useful in other investigations of this nature. We found strong evidence of lower survival rates in 1st-yr birds than in adults, but could not determine whether this was the result of higher mortality rates, higher emigration rates, or a combination of the two. We also found evidence that survival rates of adult birds were not constant with age but decreased at a rate of ? 3.5%/yr. As adult birds are very faithful to their wintering areas, we believe that almost all this decrease can be attributed to an increase in mortality with age. Simulation results suggest that heterogeneity of capture probabilities could not explain the magnitude of the decrease in survival with age. Age-dependent tag loss is also discussed as an alternative explanation, but is dismissed as very unlikely in this situation. This analysis thus provides some of the

  19. Alice in actuarial-land: through the looking glass of changing Static-99 norms.

    PubMed

    Sreenivasan, Shoba; Weinberger, Linda E; Frances, Allen; Cusworth-Walker, Sarah

    2010-01-01

    The Static-99, an actuarial rating method, is employed to conduct sexual violence risk assessment in legal contexts. The proponents of the Static-99 dismiss clinical judgment as not empirical. Two elements must be present to apply an actuarial risk model to a specific individual: sample representativeness and uniform measurement of outcome. This review demonstrates that both of these elements are lacking in the normative studies of the Static-99 and its revised version, the Static-99R. Studies conducted since the publication of the Static-99 have not replicated the original norms. Sexual recidivism rates for the same Static-99 score vary widely, from low to high, depending on the sample used. A hypothetical case example is presented to illustrate how the solitary application of the Static-99 or Static-99R recidivism rates to the exclusion of salient clinical factors for identifying sexual dangerousness can have serious consequences for public safety.

  20. Possible effects of the 2004 and 2005 hurricanes on manatee survival rates and movement

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Langtimm, C.A.; Krohn, M.D.; Reid, J.P.; Stith, B.M.; Beck, C.A.

    2006-01-01

    Prior research on manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) survival in northwest Florida, based on mark-resighting photo-identification data from 1982-1998, showed that annual adult apparent survival rate was significantly lower during years with extreme storms. Mechanisms that we proposed could have led to lower estimates included stranding, injury from debris, being fatally swept out to sea, or displacement into poorly monitored areas due to storm-generated longshore currents or storm-related loss of habitat. In 2004 and 2005, seven major hurricanes impacted areas of Florida encompassing three regional manatee subpopulations, enabling us to further examine some of these mechanisms. Data from a group of manatees tracked in southwest Florida with satellite transmitters during Hurricanes Charley, Katrina, and Wilma showed that these animals made no significant movement before and during storm passage. Mark-resighting data are being collected to determine if survival rates were lower with the 2004 and 2005 storms. ?? 2006 Estuarine Research Federation.

  1. 38 CFR 3.10 - Dependency and indemnity compensation rate for a surviving spouse.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... compensation; (D) VA was withholding payments under the provisions of 10 U.S.C. 1174(h)(2); (E) VA was... paragraph (b) or (d) of this section and any applicable increases specified in paragraph (c) or (e) of this... rate of DIC for a surviving spouse will be the amount set forth in 38 U.S.C. 1311(a)(1). (c)...

  2. 38 CFR 3.10 - Dependency and indemnity compensation rate for a surviving spouse.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... compensation; (D) VA was withholding payments under the provisions of 10 U.S.C. 1174(h)(2); (E) VA was... paragraph (b) or (d) of this section and any applicable increases specified in paragraph (c) or (e) of this... rate of DIC for a surviving spouse will be the amount set forth in 38 U.S.C. 1311(a)(1). (c)...

  3. Marathon Running Fails to Influence RBC Survival Rates in Iron-Replete Women.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Steenkamp, Irene; And Others

    1986-01-01

    This study used radiolabeling to measure red blood cell (RBC) survival rates in six iron-replete female marathon runners, and urinary tests were conducted to search for secondary evidence of RBC damage. The hypothesized RBC fragmentation was not disclosed. (Author/MT)

  4. Correlation between albuminemia, natremia and survival rates in patients with hepatorenal syndrome.

    PubMed

    Niculae, A; Jinga, Mariana; Ciocâlteu, A; Lascăr, I; Jinga, V; Checheriţă, I A

    2011-01-01

    A two years prospective study was developed, based on the monitoring of 84 patients with cirrhosis and elevated serum creatinine; 33 patients met the diagnostic criteria for the hepatorenal syndrome. In these 33 patients, survival rate has been studied in correlation with hepatorenal syndrome types, serum albumin and natremia.

  5. Temporal and geographic estimates of survival and recovery rates for the mallard, 1950 through 1985

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chu, D.S.; Hestbeck, J.B.

    1989-01-01

    Estimates of survival and recovery rates and the corresponding sample variances and covariances were made for mallards (Anas platyrhychos) banded before the hunting season for the period 1950-85. Estimates were made for adults and young, males and females, for as many banding reference areas as possible using standard band-recovery methods.

  6. Actuarial calculation for PSAK-24 purposes post-employment benefit using market-consistent approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Effendie, Adhitya Ronnie

    2015-12-01

    In this paper we use a market-consistent approach to calculate present value of obligation of a companies' post-employment benefit in accordance with PSAK-24 (the Indonesian accounting standard). We set some actuarial assumption such as Indonesian TMI 2011 mortality tables for mortality assumptions, accumulated salary function for wages assumption, a scaled (to mortality) disability assumption and a pre-defined turnover rate for termination assumption. For economic assumption, we use binomial tree method with estimated discount rate as its average movement. In accordance with PSAK-24, the Projected Unit Credit method has been adapted to determine the present value of obligation (actuarial liability), so we use this method with a modification in its discount function.

  7. The effect of chemical weapons incineration on the survival rates of Red-tailed Tropicbirds

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schreiber, E.A.; Schenk, G.A.; Doherty, P.F.

    2001-01-01

    In 1992, the Johnston Atoll Chemical Agent Disposal System (JACADS) began incinerating U.S. chemical weapons stockpiles on Johnston Atoll (Pacific Ocean) where about 500,000 seabirds breed, including Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda). We hypothesized that survival rates of birds were lower in those nesting downwind of the incinerator smokestack compared to those upwind, and that birds might move away from the area. From 1992 - 2000 we monitored survival and movements between areas upwind and downwind from the JACADS facility. We used a multi-strata mark recapture approach to model survival, probability of recapture and movement. Probability of recapture was significantly higher for birds in downwind areas (owing to greater recapture effort) and thus was an important 'nuisance' parameter to take into account in modeling. We found no differences in survival between birds nesting upwind ( 0.8588) and downwind (0.8550). There was no consistent difference in movement rates between upwind or downwind areas from year to year: differences found may be attributed to differing vegetation growth and human activities between the areas. Our results suggest that JACADS has had no documentable influence on the survival and year to year movement of Red-tailed Tropicbirds.

  8. Differences in the survival rates of older patients with colorectal cancers in 2003 and 2009

    PubMed Central

    Shin, Je-Wook; Park, Byung Kwan; Kim, Min Jung; Kim, Bun; Kim, Byung Chang; Park, Sung Chan; Han, Kyung Su; Oh, Jae Hwan

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The aim of this study was to investigate survival in patients aged ≥70 years who underwent colorectal cancer surgery in 2003 and 2009. In addition, we aimed to identify the factors that could affect survival in these patients. Methods In a cross-sectional study, a retrospective review of the data for 878 patients who underwent colorectal cancer surgery with curative intent in the years 2003 and 2009 was performed. The primary outcome was the 5-year overall survival rate (5-OSR), and the clinicopathologic factors that could affect overall survival were analyzed. Results The 5-OSR was 77.8% and 84.9% in 2003 and 2009, respectively (P = 0.013). Age, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification, stage, type of surgery, and length of hospital stay possibly affected survival per the univariate and multivariate analyses. In patients aged ≥70 years, the 5-OSR in 2009 was 75.9%, which showed improvement compared to 53.7% in 2003 (P = 0.027). The stage, type of surgery, and hospital stay were the variables that possibly affected survival in patients aged ≥70 years per the univariate analysis, whereas the stage (III; hazard ratio [HR], 2.188; P = 0.005) and length of hospital stay (>12 days; HR, 2.307; P = 0.004), were the variables that showed statistical significance on the multivariate analysis. Conclusion We found that early stage and shortening the length of hospital stay could affect survival in older patients with colorectal cancers. Because of limited evidence on the influence of shortening the length of hospital stay on survival in older patients, further investigations are warranted. PMID:28382291

  9. The impact of disease on the survival and population growth rate of the Tasmanian devil.

    PubMed

    Lachish, Shelly; Jones, Menna; McCallum, Hamish

    2007-09-01

    1. We investigated the impact of a recently emerged disease, Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD), on the survival and population growth rate of a population of Tasmanian devils, Sarcophilus harrisii, on the Freycinet Peninsula in eastern Tasmania. 2. Cormack-Jolly-Seber and multistate mark-recapture models were employed to investigate the impact of DFTD on age- and sex-specific apparent survival and transition rates. Disease impact on population growth rate was investigated using reverse-time mark-recapture models. 3. The arrival of DFTD triggered an immediate and steady decline in apparent survival rates of adults and subadults, the rate of which was predicted well by the increase in disease prevalence in the population over time. 4. Transitions from healthy to diseased state increased with disease prevalence suggesting that the force of infection in the population is increasing and that the epidemic is not subsiding. 5. The arrival of DFTD coincided with a marked, ongoing decline in the population growth rate of the previously stable population, which to date has not been offset by population compensatory responses.

  10. Habitat use and survival rates of wintering American woodcocks in coastal South Carolina and Georgia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Krementz, D.G.; Seginak, J.T.; Longcore, Jerry R.; Sepik, Greg F.

    1993-01-01

    Habitat use and survival rates of radio-marked American woodcocks (Scolopax minor) were studied during the winter in coastal South Carolina (1988-89) and Georgia (1989-90). Soon after they arrived, woodcocks were captured in mist nets or in modified shorebird traps or by nightlighting. Each bird was weighed, aged, sexed, and fitted with a 4-g radio transmitter and monitored daily until it died or could not be located or until its radio failed. During the day, the woodcocks in South Carolina frequented seasonally flooded stands of gum-oak-willow (Liquidambar-Quercus-Salix) > 75% of the time and <15-year-old pine (Pinus spp.) plantations during the remaining time. The predominantly used understory vegetation was switch cane (Arundinaria gigantica). In Georgia, woodcocks used bottomland hardwoods, young pine plantations (<15-years-old), mature pine-hardwood stands, and clear-cuttings that had regenerated naturally. Wax myrtle (Myrica cerifera) dominated the used understory species at these sites. The woodcocks in South Carolina rarely made daily moves between daytime and nighttime cover, whereas the birds in Georgia made regular flights. At both sites, the daily survival rates of females were low, especially in the absence of losses from hunting. Daily survival rates of females ranged from 0.992 in adults to 0.994 in young. Daily survival rates of males ranged from 1.0 in adults to 0.996 in young. We determined no significant differences in the daily survival rates of woodcocks by age or sex in either South Carolina or Georgia. Probable predators of radio-marked woodcocks included bobcats (Lynx rufus), gray foxes (Urocyon cinereoargenteus), and barred owls (Strix varia).

  11. Tacrolimus confers lower acute rejection rates and better renal allograft survival compared to cyclosporine

    PubMed Central

    Kamel, Mahmoud; Kadian, Manish; Srinivas, Titte; Taber, David; Posadas Salas, Maria Aurora

    2016-01-01

    AIM To compare the impact of tacrolimus (FK) and cyclosporine (CYA) on acute rejection and graft survival and to assess the predominant causes of graft loss between patients receiving these two calcineurin inhibitors (CNIs). METHODS Retrospective review of 1835 patients who received a kidney transplant (KTX) between 1999-2012. Patients were grouped based on initial CNI utilized: 1195 in FK group, 640 in CYA group. Data on baseline characteristics, clinical outcomes, and causes of graft loss in both groups were analyzed. RESULTS Cumulative acute rejection rates were 14% in the FK vs 24% in the CYA group. Despite more marginal donor characteristics in the FK group, these patients had better graft survival rates compared to the CYA group. Three and five year graft survival rates were 88% and 84% respectively in the FK group compared to 79% and 70% respectively in the CYA group (P < 0.001). After multivariate analysis, which controlled for confounders, FK use was a strong predictor for lower acute rejection rates [odds ratio (OR) 0.60, 95%CI: 0.45-0.79] and better renal allograft survival (OR 0.740, 95%CI: 0.58-0.94). Death with a functioning graft was the most common cause of graft loss in both groups. Common causes of death included cardiovascular disease, infections, and malignancies. Chronic allograft nephropathy was also found to be an important cause of graft loss, being more prevalent in the CYA group. CONCLUSION The use of FK-based maintenance immunosuppression therapy is associated with a significantly lower rate of acute rejection and better graft survival compared to CYA-based regimen. Individualizing immunosuppression through risk-stratified CNI choice may lead to improved outcomes across all spectra of KTX patients. PMID:28058220

  12. 76 FR 81362 - Regulations Governing the Performance of Actuarial Services Under the Employee Retirement Income...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-12-28

    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES 20 CFR Part 901 RIN 1545-BC82 Regulations Governing the Performance of Actuarial... Enrollment of Actuaries. ACTION: Correction to final regulations. SUMMARY: This document contains corrections..., 2011 (76 FR 17762) relating to the enrollment of actuaries. DATES: This correction is effective...

  13. 77 FR 63337 - Renewal of Charter of Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-16

    ... ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Renewal of Charter of Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries. ACTION: Notice of Renewal of Advisory Committee. SUMMARY: The Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries announces the renewal of the charter of the...

  14. 20 CFR 901.32 - Receipt of information concerning enrolled actuaries.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... actuaries. 901.32 Section 901.32 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS... Suspension or Termination of Enrollment § 901.32 Receipt of information concerning enrolled actuaries. If an... Guaranty Corporation, or a member of the Joint Board has reason to believe that an enrolled actuary...

  15. Graft survival rate of renal transplantation during a period of 10 years in Iran

    PubMed Central

    Shahbazi, Fatemeh; Ranjbaran, Mehdi; Karami-far, Simin; Soori, Hamid; Manesh, Hadi Jafari

    2015-01-01

    Background: Kidney transplantation is a preferred treatment for many patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and is far more profitable than hemodialysis. Analyzing renal transplantation data can help to evaluate the effectiveness of transplantation interventions. The aim of this study was to determine the organ survival rate after kidney transplantation during a period of 10 years (March 2001-March 2011) among transplanted patients in Arak, Markazi Province, Iran. Materials and Methods: In this historical cohort study, all recipients of kidney transplantation from Arak, Markazi Province, Iran who had medical records in Valiasr Hospital and “charity for kidney patients” of Arak, Markazi Province, Iran during a period of 10 years from March 2001 to March 2011 were included. Data collected by using checklists were completed from patients’ hospital records. Kaplan-Meier method was used to determine the graft cumulative survival rate, log-rank test to compare survival curves in subgroups, and Cox regression model to define the hazard ratio and for ruling out the intervening factors. Statistical analysis was conducted by Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) 20 and Stata 11. Results: Mean duration of follow-up was 55.43 ± 42.02 months. By using the Kaplan-Meier method, the cumulative probability of graft survival at 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 years was 99.1, 97.7, 94.3, 85.7, and 62.1%, respectively. The number of dialysis by controlling the effect of other variables had a significant association with the risk of graft failure [hazard ratios and 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.47 (1.02-2.13)]. Conclusion: This study showed that the graft survival rate was satisfactory in this community and was similar to the results of single-center studies in the world. Dialysis time after transplantation was a significant predictor of survival in the recipients of kidney transplantation that should be considered. PMID:26941807

  16. Nest survival rate of Reeves's pheasant (Syrmaticus reevesii) based on artificial nest experiments.

    PubMed

    Luo, Xu; Zhao, Yu-Ze; Ma, Jing; Li, Jian-Qiang; Xu, Ji-Liang

    2017-01-18

    To explore the nest survival rate of Reeves's pheasant(Syrmaticus reevesii) and the nest-site factors that affect it, we conducted artificial nest experiments with reference to natural nests at Dongzhai National Nature Reserve(DNNR), Henan Province and Pingjingguan, Hubei Province from April to June 2014 simulating the situation in its early and later breeding season. We also determined distance characteristics of the nest sites by ArcGIS 10.0. Nest survival models were constructed in Program MARK for data analysis. Results indicated that in the early breeding season, the apparent survival rate(ASR) in DNNR(52.4%) was significantly greater than that in Pingjingguan(13.5%), and the ASR in the later breeding season in DNNR(26.7%) was not indistinctively correlated with Pingjingguan(3.2%). The daily survival rate(DSR) in the later breeding season was 93.8% in DNNR and 92.0% in Pingjingguan, respectively. The DSRs were both negatively correlated with nest distance to forest edges and settlements. The DSR in Pingjingguan was positively correlated with nest distance to paths and negatively correlated with nest distance to water sources. However, the DSR in DNNR was negatively correlated with nest distance to paths but positively correlated with nest distance to water sources.

  17. Nest survival rate of Reeves's pheasant (Syrmaticus reevesii) based on artificial nest experiments

    PubMed Central

    Luo, Xu; Zhao, Yu-Ze; Ma, Jing; Li, Jian-Qiang; Xu, Ji-Liang

    2017-01-01

    To explore the nest survival rate of Reeves's pheasant (Syrmaticus reevesii) and the nest-site factors that affect it, we conducted artificial nest experiments with reference to natural nests at Dongzhai National Nature Reserve (DNNR), Henan Province and Pingjingguan, Hubei Province from April to June 2014 simulating the situation in its early and later breeding season. We also determined distance characteristics of the nest sites using ArcGIS 10.0. Nest survival models were constructed in Program MARK for data analysis. Results indicated that in the early breeding season, the apparent survival rate (ASR) in DNNR (52.4%) was significantly greater than that in Pingjingguan (13.5%), and the ASR in the later breeding season in DNNR (26.7%) was not indistinctively correlated with Pingjingguan (3.2%). The daily survival rate (DSR) in the later breeding season was 93.8% in DNNR and 92.0% in Pingjingguan, respectively. The DSRs were both negatively correlated with nest distance to forest edges and settlements. The DSR in Pingjingguan was positively correlated with nest distance to paths and negatively correlated with nest distance to water sources. However, the DSR in DNNR was negatively correlated with nest distance to paths but positively correlated with nest distance to water sources. PMID:28271670

  18. Survival rates of breast cancer: a hospital-based study from northeast of Thailand.

    PubMed

    Poum, Amornsak; Kamsa-ard, Supot; Promthet, Supannee

    2012-01-01

    A retrospective cohort study was carried out with 340 female breast cancer at a teaching university in northeast of Thailand recruited and followed-up until the end of 2006. Survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. 161 cases were alive after five years and 58 patients were lost to follow-up. The overall observed survival rates at 1, 3 and 5 years were 83.3%, 59.9% and 42.9%, respectively. When analysis was conducted for stage combined into 2 groups, early (stage I, II and unknown) and late (stage III and IV), the 5-year survival rate for early stage (60%; 95%CI: 0.51-0.67), was higher than for late stage (27%; 95%CI: 0.19-0.34) with high statistical significance (p<0.001). The hazard ratio of patients with stage IV was 11.6 times greater than for stage I (p=0.03). The findings indicate that the different stages of breast cancer markedly effect the overall survival rate.

  19. Effect of loading time on the survival rate of anodic oxidized implants: prospective multicenter study

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Seok-Gyu; Yun, Pil-Young; Park, Hyun-Sik; Shim, June-Sung; Hwang, Jung-Won

    2012-01-01

    PURPOSE The purpose of this prospective study was to evaluate the effect of early loading on survival rate or clinical parameter of anodic oxidized implants during the 12-month postloading period. MATERIALS AND METHODS Total 69 implants were placed in 42 patients. Anodic oxidized implants (GS II, Osstem Cor., Busan, Korea) placed on the posterior mandibles were divided into two groups, according to their prosthetic loading times: test group (2 to 6 weeks), and control group (3 to 4 months). The implant survival rates were determined during one-year postloading period and analyzed by Kaplan-Meier method. The radiographic peri-implant bone loss and periodontal parameters were also evaluated and statistically analyzed by unpaired t-test. RESULTS Total 69 implants were placed in 42 patients. The cumulative postloading implant survival rates were 88.89% in test group, compared to 100% in control group (P<.05). Periimplant marginal bone loss (T: 0.27±0.54 mm, C: 0.40±0.55 mm) and periodontal parameters showed no significant difference between the groups (P>.05). CONCLUSION Within the limitation of the present study, implant survival was affected by early loading on the anodic oxidized implants placed on posterior mandibles during one-year follow-up. Early implant loading did not influence peri-implant marginal bone loss, and periodontal parameters. PMID:22439096

  20. 42 CFR 403.258 - Statement of actuarial opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... Program: Loss Ratio Provisions § 403.258 Statement of actuarial opinion. (a) For purposes of certification... in calculating the expected loss ratio are appropriate and reasonable, taking into account...

  1. 42 CFR 403.258 - Statement of actuarial opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... Program: Loss Ratio Provisions § 403.258 Statement of actuarial opinion. (a) For purposes of certification... in calculating the expected loss ratio are appropriate and reasonable, taking into account...

  2. 42 CFR 403.258 - Statement of actuarial opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... Program: Loss Ratio Provisions § 403.258 Statement of actuarial opinion. (a) For purposes of certification... in calculating the expected loss ratio are appropriate and reasonable, taking into account...

  3. 42 CFR 403.258 - Statement of actuarial opinion.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... Program: Loss Ratio Provisions § 403.258 Statement of actuarial opinion. (a) For purposes of certification... in calculating the expected loss ratio are appropriate and reasonable, taking into account...

  4. Survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of an important mesopredator: the northern raccoon.

    PubMed

    Troyer, Elizabeth M; Cameron Devitt, Susan E; Sunquist, Melvin E; Goswami, Varun R; Oli, Madan K

    2014-01-01

    Populations of mesopredators (mid-sized mammalian carnivores) are expanding in size and range amid declining apex predator populations and ever-growing human presence, leading to significant ecological impacts. Despite their obvious importance, population dynamics have scarcely been studied for most mesopredator species. Information on basic population parameters and processes under a range of conditions is necessary for managing these species. Here we investigate survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of a widely distributed and abundant mesopredator, the northern raccoon (Procyon lotor), using Pradel's temporal symmetry models and >6 years of monthly capture-mark-recapture data collected in a protected area. Monthly apparent survival probability was higher for females (0.949, 95% CI = 0.936-0.960) than for males (0.908, 95% CI = 0.893-0.920), while monthly recruitment rate was higher for males (0.091, 95% CI = 0.078-0.106) than for females (0.054, 95% CI = 0.042-0.067). Finally, monthly realized population growth rate was 1.000 (95% CI = 0.996-1.004), indicating that our study population has reached a stable equilibrium in this relatively undisturbed habitat. There was little evidence for substantial temporal variation in population growth rate or its components. Our study is one of the first to quantify survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate of raccoons using long-term data and rigorous statistical models.

  5. Survival and recovery rates of mottled ducks banded in Texas and Louisiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Haukos, David A.

    2015-01-01

    The Western Gulf Coast population of the mottled duck (Anas fulvigula) is dependent on the Gulf coastal marsh to complete its entire life cycle. Band recovery data can be used to monitor mottled duck populations by estimating annual survival, indexing harvest rate, and assessing movements. Band returns from hunting seasons 1997–2013 were used to evaluate factors influencing annual survival, recovery rates, and movements of mottled ducks in Texas and Louisiana. For banding years of 1997–2013, 58,349 normal, wild mottled ducks were banded and released in Texas and Louisiana. Since 2002, 86% of mottled duck bandings have occurred on the Chenier Plain of Texas and Louisiana. Hunters shot, recovered, and reported 7,061birds with bands during this period. Direct recovery rates were greater for juveniles than adults but changed little since the 1970s. Estimates of annual survival did not differ between Texas and Louisiana, but did among years and between sex and age classes. Adult male and juvenile female mottled ducks had the greatest and lowest annual survival rates, respectively. Recovery of birds banded on the Chenier Plain was four times greater for birds banded in Texas and harvested in Louisiana than banded in Louisiana and harvested in Texas. Much of the current inference of results from banding mottled ducks is limited to the Chenier Plain. To monitor the entire Western Gulf Coast population of mottled ducks, managers can consider expanding operational banding operations with annual quotas, which would improve survival and recovery estimates and allow for inference beyond the Chenier Plain region.

  6. Effects of climatic variation on survival rates in northern spotted owls

    SciTech Connect

    Franklin, A.B.; Anderson, D.R.; Gutierrez, R.J. |

    1995-09-01

    We examined the effect of climate on the annual survival of marked northern spotted owls in northwest California between 1985 through 1994. We tested a priori predictions concerning the effects of precipitation and temperature during critical environmental and life history periods using mark-recapture models where logit(survival) was modeled as a function of the climatic covariates. Additional factors considered in models included sex, age and random time effects. We used Akaike`s Information Criterion to select parsimonious models in lieu of time effects. We used Akaike`s Information Criterion to select parsimonious models in lieu of a strict hypothesis-testing framework. Models incorporating climatic covariates, such as precipitation during the winter and nesting periods, explained variation in survival rates significantly better than models with time effects. These results have important implications for the life history of this species as well as it`s conservation as a threatened species.

  7. Study of psychosocial parameters related to the survival rate of renal transplantation in children.

    PubMed

    Mongeau, J G; Clermont, M J; Robitaille, P; Plante, A; Jéquier, J C; Godbout, C; Guertin, M C; Beaulieu, M A; Sarrazin, F

    1997-10-01

    The purpose of the present study was to assess the effect of intelligence, schooling, psychomotor, emotional, and social status on renal graft survival in children. Sixty-two cadaver renal transplant recipients were evaluated retrospectively and the influence of sex, age, weight, and the use of cyclosporin A (CyA) on the success rate of the graft from 1 to 5 years later was analyzed. Psychological and social scores were devised and included as factors predictive of survival of the graft. Univariate analysis showed that the following variables predicted renal graft survival: the use of CyA (P = 0.0002), pre-transplant dialysis (P = 0.04), weight at the time of transplantation (P = 0.072), and psychological scores (P = 0.064). Association analysis demonstrated that pre-transplantation dialysis was only a chance association and therefore the parameter was discarded. Multivariate analysis showed that the predictive parameters were the use of CyA, sex, weight in kilograms, and the psychological score. An equation was then derived from variables that predict the probability that a specific patient's graft will survive more than t months. This equation is the estimated survival distribution function and is as follow: S (t) = Exp {-Exp[-(0.8882x1 - 1.827x2 + 0.037x3 - 0.1746x4) + ln t - 4.7862]} where S (t) = the survival at t months post transplantation, x1 = sex (male 1, female 2), x2 = CyA (yes 1, no 2), x3 = weight in kilograms, and x4 = psychological score. The major impact of psychological factors on renal graft survival was surprising.

  8. Investigating Rates of Hunting and Survival in Declining European Lapwing Populations

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Understanding effects of harvest on population dynamics is of major interest, especially for declining species. European lapwing Vanellus vanellus populations increased from the 1960s until the 1980s and declined strongly thereafter. About 400,000 lapwings are harvested annually and it is thus of high conservation relevance to assess whether hunting was a main cause for the observed changes in lapwing population trends. We developed a multi-event cause-specific mortality model which we applied to a long-term ring-recovery data set (1960–2010) of > 360,000 records to estimate survival and cause-specific mortalities. We found no temporal change in survival over the last 50 years for first-year (FY) and older birds (after first-year; AFY) originating from different ringing areas. Mean survival was high, around 0.60 and 0.80 for FY and AFY individuals, respectively. The proportion of total mortality due to hunting was <0.10 over the study period and the estimated proportion of harvested individuals (kill rate) was <0.05 in each year. Our result of constant survival indicates that demographic processes other than survival were responsible for the pronounced change in lapwing population trends in the 1980s. Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that hunting was not a significant contributor to the large-scale decline of lapwing populations. To halt the ongoing decline of European lapwing populations management should focus on life history stages other than survival (e.g. productivity). Further analyses are required to investigate the contribution of other demographic rates to the decline of lapwings and to identify the most efficient conservation actions. PMID:27685660

  9. Environmental effects on survival rates: robust regression, recovery planning and endangered Atlantic salmon

    PubMed Central

    Bowlby, Heather D; Gibson, A Jamie F

    2015-01-01

    Describing how population-level survival rates are influenced by environmental change becomes necessary during recovery planning to identify threats that should be the focus for future remediation efforts. However, the ways in which data are analyzed have the potential to change our ecological understanding and thus subsequent recommendations for remedial actions to address threats. In regression, distributional assumptions underlying short time series of survival estimates cannot be investigated a priori and data likely contain points that do not follow the general trend (outliers) as well as contain additional variation relative to an assumed distribution (overdispersion). Using juvenile survival data from three endangered Atlantic salmon Salmo salar L. populations in response to hydrological variation, four distributions for the response were compared using lognormal and generalized linear models (GLM). The influence of outliers as well as overdispersion was investigated by comparing conclusions from robust regressions with these lognormal models and GLMs. The analyses strongly supported the use of a lognormal distribution for survival estimates (i.e., modeling the instantaneous rate of mortality as the response) and would have led to ambiguity in the identification of significant hydrological predictors as well as low overall confidence in the predicted relationships if only GLMs had been considered. However, using robust regression to evaluate the effect of additional variation and outliers in the data relative to regression assumptions resulted in a better understanding of relationships between hydrological variables and survival that could be used for population-specific recovery planning. This manuscript highlights how a systematic analysis that explicitly considers what monitoring data represent and where variation is likely to come from is required in order to draw meaningful conclusions when analyzing changes in survival relative to environmental

  10. Statistics of hematologic malignancies in Korea: incidence, prevalence and survival rates from 1999 to 2008

    PubMed Central

    Park, Hyeon Jin; Park, Eun-Hye; Jung, Kyu-Won; Kong, Hyun-Joo; Won, Young-Joo; Lee, Joo Young; Yoon, Jong Hyung; Park, Byung-Kiu; Lee, Hyewon; Eom, Hyeon-Seok

    2012-01-01

    Background The nationwide statistical analysis of hematologic malignancies in Korea has not been reported yet. Methods The Korea Central Cancer Registry and the Korean Society of Hematology jointly investigated domestic incidence rates and prevalence of hematologic malignancies occurred between 1999 and 2008, and analyzed survival rates of patients who were diagnosed between 1993 and 2008. Data of hematologic malignancies from 1993 to 2008 were obtained from the Korean National Cancer Incidence Data base. The crude incidence rates, age-specific incidence rates, age-standardized incidence rates, annual percentage change of incidence, and prevalence from 1999-2008 were calculated. Survival rates for patients diagnosed in 1993-2008 were estimated. Results In 2008, a total of 8,006 cases of hematologic malignancies were occurred, which comprised 4.5% of all malignancies. In all genders, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloid leukemia, and multiple myeloma were most frequent diseases. In terms of age, ages between 60 and 69 were most prevalent. From 1999 to 2008, the age-standardized incidence rates increased from 10.2 to 13.7, and the annual percentage change was 3.9%. The 5-year survival rate increased from 38.2% during 1993-1995 to 55.2% during 2004-2008. As of January 2009, number of patients with 10-year prevalence was 33,130, and with 5- to 10-year prevalence was 10,515. Conclusion This is the first nationwide statistical report of hematologic malignancies in Korea. It could be used as the basic information to help investigate epidemiologic characteristics, evaluate progress during the past years, and establish future strategies for hematologic malignancies. Periodic statistical analysis of hematologic malignancies in Korea should be continued. PMID:22479275

  11. Annual survival rates of adult and immature eastern population tundra swans

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Bart, J.; Limpert, R.J.; Sladen, William J. L.; Hines, J.E.

    1992-01-01

    Tundra swans (Cygnus columbianus ) of the eastern population were neckbanded in Maryland, North Carolina, and Alaska from 1966 through 1990. These swans were resighted and recaptured during autumn, winter, and spring, 1966-1990. Although the original motivation for this study involved swan movements, we wanted to use the resulting data to test hypotheses about sources of variation in swan survival rates. Recaptures of legbanded and neckbanded swans permitted us to estimate neckband loss rates, which were found to vary with age and sex of swans, and number of years since initial application. Estimates of annual neckband retention rate ranged from about 0.50 for adult male swans greater than or equal to 2 years after initial neckbanding to > 0.96 for immature swans and adult females the first year following neckbanding. This variation in neckband loss rates prevented the simple correction of survival estimates to account for such loss. Consequently, we developed a series of multinomial models parameterized with survival, sighting, and neckband retention probabilities for use with the recapture and resighting data.

  12. Simultaneous use of mark-recapture and radiotelemetry to estimate survival, movement, and capture rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Powell, L.A.; Conroy, M.J.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Krementz, D.G.

    2000-01-01

    Biologists often estimate separate survival and movement rates from radio-telemetry and mark-recapture data from the same study population. We describe a method for combining these data types in a single model to obtain joint, potentially less biased estimates of survival and movement that use all available data. We furnish an example using wood thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) captured at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in central Georgia in 1996. The model structure allows estimation of survival and capture probabilities, as well as estimation of movements away from and into the study area. In addition, the model structure provides many possibilities for hypothesis testing. Using the combined model structure, we estimated that wood thrush weekly survival was 0.989 ? 0.007 ( ?SE). Survival rates of banded and radio-marked individuals were not different (alpha hat [S_radioed, ~ S_banded]=log [S hat _radioed/ S hat _banded]=0.0239 ? 0.0435). Fidelity rates (weekly probability of remaining in a stratum) did not differ between geographic strata (psi hat=0.911 ? 0.020; alpha hat [psi11, psi22]=0.0161 ? 0.047), and recapture rates ( = 0.097 ? 0.016) banded and radio-marked individuals were not different (alpha hat [p_radioed, p_banded]=0.145 ? 0.655). Combining these data types in a common model resulted in more precise estimates of movement and recapture rates than separate estimation, but ability to detect stratum or mark-specific differences in parameters was week. We conducted simulation trials to investigate the effects of varying study designs on parameter accuracy and statistical power to detect important differences. Parameter accuracy was high (relative bias [RBIAS] <2 %) and confidence interval coverage close to nominal, except for survival estimates of banded birds for the 'off study area' stratum, which were negatively biased (RBIAS -7 to -15%) when sample sizes were small (5-10 banded or radioed animals 'released' per time interval). To provide

  13. Survival rates of porcelain laminate restoration based on different incisal preparation designs: An analysis

    PubMed Central

    Shetty, Ashish; Kaiwar, Anjali; Shubhashini, N; Ashwini, P; Naveen, DN; Adarsha, MS; Shetty, Mitha; Meena, N

    2011-01-01

    Background: Veneer restorations provide a valid conservative alternative to complete coverage as they avoid aggressive dental preparation; thus, maintaining tooth structure. Initially, laminates were placed on the unprepared tooth surface. Although there is as yet no consensus as to whether or not teeth should be prepared for laminate veneers, currently, more conservative preparations have been advocated. Because of their esthetic appeal, biocompatibility and adherence to the physiology of minimal-invasive dentistry, porcelain laminate veneers have now become a restoration of choice. Currently, there is a lack of clinical consensus regarding the type of design preferred for laminates. Widely varying survival rates and methods for its estimation have been reported for porcelain veneers over approximately 2–10 years. Relatively few studies have been reported in the literature that use survival estimates, which allow for valid study comparisons between the types of preparation designs used. No survival analysis has been undertaken for the designs used. The purpose of this article is to attempt to review the survival rates of veneers based on different incisal preparation designs from both clinical and non-clinical studies. Aims and Objectives: The purpose of this study is to review both clinical and non-clinical studies to determine the survival rates of veneers based on different incisal preparation designs. A further objective of the study is to understand which is the most successful design in terms of preparation. Materials and Methods This study evaluated the existing literature – survival rates of veneers based on incisal preparation designs. The search strategy involved MEDLINE, BITTORRENT and other databases. Statistical Analysis Data were tabulated. Because of variability in the follow-up period in different studies, the follow-up period was extrapolated to 10 years in common for all of them. Accordingly, the failure rate was then estimated and The

  14. Valuing structured professional judgment: predictive validity, decision-making, and the clinical-actuarial conflict.

    PubMed

    Falzer, Paul R

    2013-01-01

    Structured professional judgment (SPJ) has received considerable attention as an alternative to unstructured clinical judgment and actuarial assessment, and as a means of resolving their ongoing conflict. However, predictive validity studies have typically relied on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, the same technique commonly used to validate actuarial assessment tools. This paper presents SPJ as distinct from both unstructured clinical judgment and actuarial assessment. A key distinguishing feature of SPJ is the contribution of modifiable factors, either dynamic or protective, to summary risk ratings. With modifiable factors, the summary rating scheme serves as a prognostic model rather than a classification procedure. However, prognostic models require more extensive and thorough predictive validity testing than can be provided by ROC analysis. It is proposed that validation should include calibration and reclassification techniques, as well as additional measures of discrimination. Several techniques and measures are described and illustrated. The paper concludes by tracing the limitations of ROC analysis to its philosophical foundation and its origin as a statistical theory of decision-making. This foundation inhibits the performance of crucial tasks, such as determining the sufficiency of a risk assessment and examining the evidentiary value of statistical findings. The paper closes by noting a current effort to establish a viable and complementary relationship between SPJ and decision-making theory.

  15. Modeling the effect of temperature on survival rate of Listeria monocytogenes in yogurt.

    PubMed

    Szczawiński, J; Szczawińska, M E; Łobacz, A; Jackowska-Tracz, A

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the study was to (i) evaluate the behavior of Listeria monocytogenes in a commercially produced yogurt, (ii) determine the survival/inactivation rates of L. monocytogenes during cold storage of yogurt and (iii) to generate primary and secondary mathematical models to predict the behavior of these bacteria during storage at different temperatures. The samples of yogurt were inoculated with the mixture of three L. monocytogenes strains and stored at 3, 6, 9, 12 and 15°C for 16 days. The number of listeriae was determined after 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14 and 16 days of storage. From each sample a series of decimal dilutions were prepared and plated onto ALOA agar (agar for Listeria according to Ottaviani and Agosti). It was found that applied temperature and storage time significantly influenced the survival rate of listeriae (p<0.01). The number of L. monocytogenes in all the samples decreased linearly with storage time. The slowest decrease in the number of the bacteria was found in the samples stored at 6°C (D-10 value = 243.9 h), whereas the highest reduction in the number of the bacteria was observed in the samples stored at 15°C (D-10 value = 87.0 h). The number of L. monocytogenes was correlated with the pH value of the samples (p<0.01). The natural logarithm of the mean survival/inactivation rates of L. monocytogenes calculated from the primary model was fitted to two secondary models, namely linear and polynomial. Mathematical equations obtained from both secondary models can be applied as a tool for the prediction of the survival/inactivation rate of L. monocytogenes in yogurt stored under temperature range from 3 to 15°C, however, the polynomial model gave a better fit to the experimental data.

  16. Nasopharyngeal carcinoma in the people's Republic of China: incidence, treatment, and survival rates

    SciTech Connect

    Hwang, H.N.

    1983-10-01

    The incidence, treatment regimens, and survival rates for nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China, one of the most common cancers in that country, are reviewed. Although treated almost exclusively with megavoltage photon therapy, in some cancer centers intracavitary radium insertions are used to increase the radiation dose to the primary tumor site. A histological study of these tumors shows that patients whose tumors are well-differentiated and contain an abundance of lymphocytes have the best prognosis.

  17. [Survival rate and complications of stemmed shoulder prostheses in primary osteoarthritis].

    PubMed

    Irlenbusch, U

    2013-07-01

    Survivorship and survival rate of shoulder prostheses can be affected by a large number of possible complications. An evaluation of the current literature and the prosthesis register, however, shows an overall low revision (1.39 revisions per 100 observation years) and loosening rates (implant-related 10-year survival rate up to 99%), comparable to that of hip and knee endoprostheses. It must be emphasized that cementless stems more often cause problems than cemented components (4.34 compared to 0.77 revisions per 100 observation years) and that secondary rotator cuff rupture (4.6%; functional deficit up to 30%) occurs more frequently than was generally assumed and is often not diagnosed or treated adequately. The infection rate amounts to approximately 1% and according to latest literature the dislocation rate is regressive and is estimated to be approximately 5%.The low complication and revision rates do not justify the replacement of stemmed prostheses by stemless implants and short stem prostheses and the preference given to the new implants is attributed more to the better revision possibilities and easier convertibility into inverse prostheses.

  18. Survival rates of radio-collared female polar bears and their dependent young

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amstrup, Steven C.; Durner, G.M.

    1995-01-01

    Polar bears are hunted throughout most of their range. In addition to hunting, polar bears of the Beaufort Sea region are exposed to mineral and hydrocarbon extraction and related human activities such as shipping, road building, and seismic testing. As human populations increase and demands for polar bears and other arctic resources escalate, reliable estimates of survivorship of polar bears are needed to predict and manage the impacts of those activities. We used the Kaplan-Meier model to estimate annual survival (with 95% confidence intervals) for radio-collared female polar bears and their dependent young that were followed during a 12-year study in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea. Survival of adult female polar bears was higher than had been previously thought: S = 0.969 (range 0.952-0.983). If human-caused mortalities were deleted, the computed survival rate was 0.996 (0.990-1.002). Survival of young from den exit to weaning was 0.676 (0.634-0.701). Survival during the second year of life, 0.860 (0.751-0.903), was substantially higher than during the first year, 0.651 (0.610-0.675). Shooting by local hunters accounted for 85% of the documented deaths of adult female polar bears. Conversely, 90% of documented losses of young were independent of litter size (P = 0.36), indicating that parental investment in single cubs was not different from investment in litters of two or more. Precise estimates of the survival of independent juveniles and adult males still need to be developed.

  19. Survival rate of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Wakayama Prefecture, Japan, 1966 to 2005.

    PubMed

    Kihira, Tameko; Yoshida, Sohei; Okamoto, Kazusi; Kazimoto, Yoshinori; Ookawa, Masae; Hama, Kiwa; Miwa, Hideto; Kondo, Tomoyoshi

    2008-05-15

    To investigate longitudinal changes in the survival rate of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Wakayama Prefecture, Japan, we made a retrospective hospital-based study of 454 patients diagnosed with motor neuron disease (MND) at Wakayama Medical University (WMU) Hospital between 1966 and 2005. Of the 454 patients, 240 who were born and who lived in Wakayama Prefecture were diagnosed with definite or probable ALS during this period, according to the El Escorial criteria. The clinical data of the 240 patients, including sex, birth date, birthplace, address, age at onset, initial symptoms, date when respiratory support was applied (tracheostomy, noninvasive positive pressure ventilation, or mandatory artificial ventilation), and date of death were reviewed retrospectively. The age at onset of patients who developed initial symptoms before 1990 was 53.4+/-10.6 (mean+/-S.D.) and that in 1990 or thereafter was 64.8+/-10.3, respectively, showing a significant difference (p<0.0001). Clinical duration was determined from onset to either date of death or initiation of respiratory support in this study. Survival rate was compared using the Kaplan-Meier method according to age at onset, sex, initial symptoms and year of onset. Mean age at onset shifted towards older age according to a later year of onset, due to the overwhelming senility rate in Wakayama Prefecture. Older onset patients had a significantly poorer survival rate than younger onset patients when it was compared based on 10-year age groups (log rank, p<0.0001). Male patients had a poorer survival rate than female patients (p<0.0001). ALS patients with bulbar palsy onset showed shorter clinical durations than those with lower leg onset (p<0.0071, Breslow-Gehan-Wilcoxon test). Patients over 70 years old more frequently showed bulbar palsy onset compared to those younger than 69 (p=0.003). In a comparison of year of onset before and after 1990, ALS patients after 1990 had characteristics of older age

  20. Temperature dependence of metabolic rates for microbial growth, maintenance, and survival

    PubMed Central

    Price, P. Buford; Sowers, Todd

    2004-01-01

    Our work was motivated by discoveries of prokaryotic communities that survive with little nutrient in ice and permafrost, with implications for past or present microbial life in Martian permafrost and Europan ice. We compared the temperature dependence of metabolic rates of microbial communities in permafrost, ice, snow, clouds, oceans, lakes, marine and freshwater sediments, and subsurface aquifer sediments. Metabolic rates per cell fall into three groupings: (i) a rate, μg(T), for growth, measured in the laboratory at in situ temperatures with minimal disturbance of the medium; (ii) a rate, μm(T), sufficient for maintenance of functions but for a nutrient level too low for growth; and (iii) a rate, μs(T), for survival of communities imprisoned in deep glacial ice, subsurface sediment, or ocean sediment, in which they can repair macromolecular damage but are probably largely dormant. The three groups have metabolic rates consistent with a single activation energy of ≈110 kJ and that scale as μg(T):μm(T):μs(T) ≈ 106:103:1. There is no evidence of a minimum temperature for metabolism. The rate at -40°C in ice corresponds to ≈10 turnovers of cellular carbon per billion years. Microbes in ice and permafrost have metabolic rates similar to those in water, soil, and sediment at the same temperature. This finding supports the view that, far below the freezing point, liquid water inside ice and permafrost is available for metabolism. The rate μs(T) for repairing molecular damage by means of DNA-repair enzymes and protein-repair enzymes such as methyltransferase is found to be comparable to the rate of spontaneous molecular damage. PMID:15070769

  1. Changes in Survival Rate for Very-Low-Birth-Weight Infants in Korea: Comparison with Other Countries

    PubMed Central

    Shim, Jae Won; Jin, Hyun-Seung

    2015-01-01

    Recently the Korean Neonatal Network (KNN) was established in order to enhance treatment outcomes further through the registration of very-low-birth-weight infants (VLBWI) data. The present study was conducted on 2,606 VLBWI, 2,386 registered and 220 un-registered, in the KNN participating centers, with the objective of reporting on recent survival rates of VLBWI in Korea and verifying the changing trends in survival rates with data from the 1960s and beyond. The study also aimed to compare the premature infants' survival rate in Korea with those reported in neonatal networks of other countries. The recent survival rate of VLBWI increased more than twice from 35.6% in the 1960s to 84.8%, and the survival rate of the extremely low birth weight infants (ELBWI) increased by more than 10 times, indicating improvement of the survival rate in premature infants with lower birth weight and gestational age. Comparison of VLBWI between countries showed improved survival rates according to each birth weight group in Canada, Australia-New Zealand, and European countries with Japan at the head, but in terms of comparison based on gestational age, differences, except for Japan, have been reduced. Efforts to increase the survival rate of premature infants in Korea with low birth rate are inevitable, and they should be the foundation of academic and clinical development based on its network with advanced countries. PMID:26566354

  2. Mathematical Modeling of Therapy-induced Cancer Drug Resistance: Connecting Cancer Mechanisms to Population Survival Rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Xiaoqiang; Bao, Jiguang; Shao, Yongzhao

    2016-03-01

    Drug resistance significantly limits the long-term effectiveness of targeted therapeutics for cancer patients. Recent experimental studies have demonstrated that cancer cell heterogeneity and microenvironment adaptations to targeted therapy play important roles in promoting the rapid acquisition of drug resistance and in increasing cancer metastasis. The systematic development of effective therapeutics to overcome drug resistance mechanisms poses a major challenge. In this study, we used a modeling approach to connect cellular mechanisms underlying cancer drug resistance to population-level patient survival. To predict progression-free survival in cancer patients with metastatic melanoma, we developed a set of stochastic differential equations to describe the dynamics of heterogeneous cell populations while taking into account micro-environment adaptations. Clinical data on survival and circulating tumor cell DNA (ctDNA) concentrations were used to confirm the effectiveness of our model. Moreover, our model predicted distinct patterns of dose-dependent synergy when evaluating a combination of BRAF and MEK inhibitors versus a combination of BRAF and PI3K inhibitors. These predictions were consistent with the findings in previously reported studies. The impact of the drug metabolism rate on patient survival was also discussed. The proposed model might facilitate the quantitative evaluation and optimization of combination therapeutics and cancer clinical trial design.

  3. Mathematical Modeling of Therapy-induced Cancer Drug Resistance: Connecting Cancer Mechanisms to Population Survival Rates.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xiaoqiang; Bao, Jiguang; Shao, Yongzhao

    2016-03-01

    Drug resistance significantly limits the long-term effectiveness of targeted therapeutics for cancer patients. Recent experimental studies have demonstrated that cancer cell heterogeneity and microenvironment adaptations to targeted therapy play important roles in promoting the rapid acquisition of drug resistance and in increasing cancer metastasis. The systematic development of effective therapeutics to overcome drug resistance mechanisms poses a major challenge. In this study, we used a modeling approach to connect cellular mechanisms underlying cancer drug resistance to population-level patient survival. To predict progression-free survival in cancer patients with metastatic melanoma, we developed a set of stochastic differential equations to describe the dynamics of heterogeneous cell populations while taking into account micro-environment adaptations. Clinical data on survival and circulating tumor cell DNA (ctDNA) concentrations were used to confirm the effectiveness of our model. Moreover, our model predicted distinct patterns of dose-dependent synergy when evaluating a combination of BRAF and MEK inhibitors versus a combination of BRAF and PI3K inhibitors. These predictions were consistent with the findings in previously reported studies. The impact of the drug metabolism rate on patient survival was also discussed. The proposed model might facilitate the quantitative evaluation and optimization of combination therapeutics and cancer clinical trial design.

  4. Mathematical Modeling of Therapy-induced Cancer Drug Resistance: Connecting Cancer Mechanisms to Population Survival Rates

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xiaoqiang; Bao, Jiguang; Shao, Yongzhao

    2016-01-01

    Drug resistance significantly limits the long-term effectiveness of targeted therapeutics for cancer patients. Recent experimental studies have demonstrated that cancer cell heterogeneity and microenvironment adaptations to targeted therapy play important roles in promoting the rapid acquisition of drug resistance and in increasing cancer metastasis. The systematic development of effective therapeutics to overcome drug resistance mechanisms poses a major challenge. In this study, we used a modeling approach to connect cellular mechanisms underlying cancer drug resistance to population-level patient survival. To predict progression-free survival in cancer patients with metastatic melanoma, we developed a set of stochastic differential equations to describe the dynamics of heterogeneous cell populations while taking into account micro-environment adaptations. Clinical data on survival and circulating tumor cell DNA (ctDNA) concentrations were used to confirm the effectiveness of our model. Moreover, our model predicted distinct patterns of dose-dependent synergy when evaluating a combination of BRAF and MEK inhibitors versus a combination of BRAF and PI3K inhibitors. These predictions were consistent with the findings in previously reported studies. The impact of the drug metabolism rate on patient survival was also discussed. The proposed model might facilitate the quantitative evaluation and optimization of combination therapeutics and cancer clinical trial design. PMID:26928089

  5. Estimating annual survival and movement rates of adults within a metapopulation of roseate terns

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spendelow, J.A.; Nichols, J.D.; Nisbet, I.C.T.; Hays, H.; Cormons, G.D.; Burger, J.; Safina, C.; Hines, J.E.; Gochfeld, M.

    1995-01-01

    Several multistratum capture-recapture models were used to test various hypotheses about possible geographic and temporal variation in survival, movement, and recapture/resighting probabilities of 2399 adult Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) color-banded from 1988 to 1992 at the sites of the four largest breeding colonies of this species in the northeastern USA. Linear-logistic ultrastructural models also were developed to investigate possible correlates of geographic variation in movement probabilities. Based on goodness-of-fit tests and comparisons of Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) values, the fully parameterized model (Model A) with time- and location-specific survival, movement, and capture probabilities, was selected as the most appropriate model for this metapopulation structure. With almost all movement accounted for, on average gt 90% of the surviving adults from each colony site returned to the same site the following year. Variations in movement probabilities were more closely associated with the identity of the destination colony site than with either the identity of the colony site of origin or the distance between colony sites. The average annual survival estimates (0.740.84) of terns from all four sites indicate a high rate of annual mortality relative to that of other species of marine birds.

  6. Increased survival rate by local release of diclofenac in a murine model of recurrent oral carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Will, Olga Maria; Purcz, Nicolai; Chalaris, Athena; Heneweer, Carola; Boretius, Susann; Purcz, Larissa; Nikkola, Lila; Ashammakhi, Nureddin; Kalthoff, Holger; Glüer, Claus-Christian; Wiltfang, Jörg; Açil, Yahya; Tiwari, Sanjay

    2016-01-01

    Despite aggressive treatment with radiation and combination chemotherapy following tumor resection, the 5-year survival rate for patients with head and neck cancer is at best only 50%. In this study, we examined the therapeutic potential of localized release of diclofenac from electrospun nanofibers generated from poly(D,L-lactide-co-glycolide) polymer. Diclofenac was chosen since anti-inflammatory agents that inhibit cyclooxygenase have shown great potential in their ability to directly inhibit tumor growth as well as suppress inflammation-mediated tumor growth. A mouse resection model of oral carcinoma was developed by establishing tumor growth in the oral cavity by ultrasound-guided injection of 1 million SCC-9 cells in the floor of the mouth. Following resection, mice were allocated into four groups with the following treatment: 1) no treatment, 2) implanted scaffolds without diclofenac, 3) implanted scaffolds loaded with diclofenac, and 4) diclofenac given orally. Small animal ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging were utilized for longitudinal determination of tumor recurrence. At the end of 7 weeks following tumor resection, 33% of mice with diclofenac-loaded scaffolds had a recurrent tumor, in comparison to 90%–100% of the mice in the other three groups. At this time point, mice with diclofenac-releasing scaffolds showed 89% survival rate, while the other groups showed survival rates of 10%–25%. Immunohistochemical staining of recurrent tumors revealed a near 10-fold decrease in the proliferation marker Ki-67 in the tumors derived from mice with diclofenac-releasing scaffolds. In summary, the local application of diclofenac in an orthotopic mouse tumor resection model of oral cancer reduced tumor recurrence with significant improvement in survival over a 7-week study period following tumor resection. Local drug release of anti-inflammatory agents should be investigated as a therapeutic option in the prevention of tumor recurrence in oral squamous

  7. Increased survival rate by local release of diclofenac in a murine model of recurrent oral carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Will, Olga Maria; Purcz, Nicolai; Chalaris, Athena; Heneweer, Carola; Boretius, Susann; Purcz, Larissa; Nikkola, Lila; Ashammakhi, Nureddin; Kalthoff, Holger; Glüer, Claus-Christian; Wiltfang, Jörg; Açil, Yahya; Tiwari, Sanjay

    Despite aggressive treatment with radiation and combination chemotherapy following tumor resection, the 5-year survival rate for patients with head and neck cancer is at best only 50%. In this study, we examined the therapeutic potential of localized release of diclofenac from electrospun nanofibers generated from poly(D,L-lactide-co-glycolide) polymer. Diclofenac was chosen since anti-inflammatory agents that inhibit cyclooxygenase have shown great potential in their ability to directly inhibit tumor growth as well as suppress inflammation-mediated tumor growth. A mouse resection model of oral carcinoma was developed by establishing tumor growth in the oral cavity by ultrasound-guided injection of 1 million SCC-9 cells in the floor of the mouth. Following resection, mice were allocated into four groups with the following treatment: 1) no treatment, 2) implanted scaffolds without diclofenac, 3) implanted scaffolds loaded with diclofenac, and 4) diclofenac given orally. Small animal ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging were utilized for longitudinal determination of tumor recurrence. At the end of 7 weeks following tumor resection, 33% of mice with diclofenac-loaded scaffolds had a recurrent tumor, in comparison to 90%-100% of the mice in the other three groups. At this time point, mice with diclofenac-releasing scaffolds showed 89% survival rate, while the other groups showed survival rates of 10%-25%. Immunohistochemical staining of recurrent tumors revealed a near 10-fold decrease in the proliferation marker Ki-67 in the tumors derived from mice with diclofenac-releasing scaffolds. In summary, the local application of diclofenac in an orthotopic mouse tumor resection model of oral cancer reduced tumor recurrence with significant improvement in survival over a 7-week study period following tumor resection. Local drug release of anti-inflammatory agents should be investigated as a therapeutic option in the prevention of tumor recurrence in oral squamous

  8. SU-E-T-352: Why Is the Survival Rate Low in Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma?

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Z; Feng, Y; Rasmussen, K; Rice, J; Stephenson, S; Ferreira, Maria C; Liu, T; Yuh, K; Wang, R; Grecula, J; Lo, S; Mayr, N; Yuh, W

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: Tumors are composed of a large number of clonogens that have the capability of indefinite reproduction. Even when there is complete clinical or radiographic regression of the gross tumor mass after treatment, tumor recurrence can occur if the clonogens are not completely eradicated by radiotherapy. This study was to investigate the colonogen number and its association with the tumor control probability (TCP) in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCCA). Methods: A literature search was conducted to collect clinical information of patients with OSCCA, including the prescription dose, tumor volume and survival rate. The linear-quadratic (LQ) model was incorporated into TCP model for clinical data analysis. The total dose ranged from 60 to 70 Gy and tumor volume ranged from 10 to 50 cc. The TCP was calculated for each group according to tumor size and dose. The least χ{sup 2} method was used to fit the TCP calculation to clinical data while other LQ model parameters (α, β) were adopted from the literature, due to the limited patient data. Results: A total of 190 patients with T2–T4 OSCCA were included. The association with HPV was not available for all the patients. The 3-year survival rate was about 82% for T2 squamous cell carcinoma and 40% for advanced tumors. Fitting the TCP model to the survival data, the average clonogen number was 1.56×10{sup 12}. For the prescription dose of 70 Gy, the calculated TCP ranged from 40% to 90% when the tumor volume varied from 10 to 50 cc. Conclusion: Our data suggests variation between the clonogen number and TCP in OSCCA. Tumors with larger colonogen number tend to have lower TCP and therefore dose escalation above 70 Gy may be indicated in order to improve the TCP and survival rate. Our result will require future confirmation with a large number of patients.

  9. Has actuarial aging "slowed" over the past 250 years? A comparison of small-scale subsistence populations and European cohorts.

    PubMed

    Gurven, Michael; Fenelon, Andrew

    2009-04-01

    G.C. Williams's 1957 hypothesis famously argues that higher age-independent, or "extrinsic," mortality should select for faster rates of senescence. Long-lived species should therefore show relatively few deaths from extrinsic causes such as predation and starvation. Theoretical explorations and empirical tests of Williams's hypothesis have flourished in the past decade but it has not yet been tested empirically among humans. We test Williams's hypothesis using mortality data from subsistence populations and from historical cohorts from Sweden and England/Wales, and examine whether rates of actuarial aging declined over the past two centuries. We employ three aging measures: mortality rate doubling time (MRDT), Ricklefs's omega, and the slope of mortality hazard from ages 60-70, m'(60-70), and model mortality using both Weibull and Gompertz-Makeham hazard models. We find that (1) actuarial aging in subsistence societies is similar to that of early Europe, (2) actuarial senescence has slowed in later European cohorts, (3) reductions in extrinsic mortality associate with slower actuarial aging in longitudinal samples, and (4) men senesce more rapidly than women, especially in later cohorts. To interpret these results, we attempt to bridge population-based evolutionary analysis with individual-level proximate mechanisms.

  10. The influence of disturbance events on survival and dispersal rates of Florida box turtles

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dodd, C.K.; Ozgul, A.; Oli, M.K.

    2006-01-01

    Disturbances have the potential to cause long-term effects to ecosystem structure and function, and they may affect individual species in different ways. Long-lived vertebrates such as turtles may be at risk from such events, inasmuch as their life histories preclude rapid recovery should extensive mortality occur. We applied capture–mark–recapture models to assess disturbance effects on a population of Florida box turtles (Terrapene carolina bauri) on Egmont Key, Florida, USA. Near the midpoint of the study, a series of physical disturbances affected the island, from salt water overwash associated with several tropical storms to extensive removal of nonindigenous vegetation. These disturbances allowed us to examine demographic responses of the turtle population and to determine if they affected dispersal throughout the island. Adult survival rates did not vary significantly either between sexes or among years of the study. Survival rates did not vary significantly between juvenile and adult turtles, or among years of the study. Furthermore, neither adult nor juvenile survival rates differed significantly between pre- and post-disturbance. However, dispersal rates varied significantly among the four major study sites, and dispersal rates were higher during the pre-disturbance sampling periods compared to post-disturbance. Our results suggest few long-term effects on the demography of the turtle population. Florida box turtles responded to tropical storms and vegetation control by moving to favorable habitats minimally affected by the disturbances and remaining there. As long as turtles and perhaps other long-lived vertebrates can disperse to non-disturbed habitat, and high levels of mortality do not occur in a population, a long life span may allow them to wait out the impact of disturbance with potentially little effect on long-term population processes.

  11. Survival, Recruitment, and Population Growth Rate of an Important Mesopredator: The Northern Raccoon

    PubMed Central

    Troyer, Elizabeth M.; Cameron Devitt, Susan E.; Sunquist, Melvin E.; Goswami, Varun R.; Oli, Madan K.

    2014-01-01

    Populations of mesopredators (mid-sized mammalian carnivores) are expanding in size and range amid declining apex predator populations and ever-growing human presence, leading to significant ecological impacts. Despite their obvious importance, population dynamics have scarcely been studied for most mesopredator species. Information on basic population parameters and processes under a range of conditions is necessary for managing these species. Here we investigate survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of a widely distributed and abundant mesopredator, the northern raccoon (Procyon lotor), using Pradel’s temporal symmetry models and >6 years of monthly capture-mark-recapture data collected in a protected area. Monthly apparent survival probability was higher for females (0.949, 95% CI = 0.936–0.960) than for males (0.908, 95% CI = 0.893–0.920), while monthly recruitment rate was higher for males (0.091, 95% CI = 0.078–0.106) than for females (0.054, 95% CI = 0.042–0.067). Finally, monthly realized population growth rate was 1.000 (95% CI = 0.996–1.004), indicating that our study population has reached a stable equilibrium in this relatively undisturbed habitat. There was little evidence for substantial temporal variation in population growth rate or its components. Our study is one of the first to quantify survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate of raccoons using long-term data and rigorous statistical models. PMID:24901349

  12. Changing central Pacific El Niños reduce stability of North American salmon survival rates.

    PubMed

    Kilduff, D Patrick; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Botsford, Louis W; Teo, Steven L H

    2015-09-01

    Pacific salmon are a dominant component of the northeast Pacific ecosystem. Their status is of concern because salmon abundance is highly variable--including protected stocks, a recently closed fishery, and actively managed fisheries that provide substantial ecosystem services. Variable ocean conditions, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), have influenced these fisheries, while diminished diversity of freshwater habitats have increased variability via the portfolio effect. We address the question of how recent changes in ocean conditions will affect populations of two salmon species. Since the 1980s, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have been more frequently associated with central tropical Pacific warming (CPW) rather than the canonical eastern Pacific warming ENSO (EPW). CPW is linked to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), whereas EPW is linked to the PDO, different indicators of northeast Pacific Ocean ecosystem productivity. Here we show that both coho and Chinook salmon survival rates along western North America indicate that the NPGO, rather than the PDO, explains salmon survival since the 1980s. The observed increase in NPGO variance in recent decades was accompanied by an increase in coherence of local survival rates of these two species, increasing salmon variability via the portfolio effect. Such increases in coherence among salmon stocks are usually attributed to controllable freshwater influences such as hatcheries and habitat degradation, but the unknown mechanism underlying the ocean climate effect identified here is not directly subject to management actions.

  13. Changing central Pacific El Niños reduce stability of North American salmon survival rates

    PubMed Central

    Kilduff, D. Patrick; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Botsford, Louis W.; Teo, Steven L. H.

    2015-01-01

    Pacific salmon are a dominant component of the northeast Pacific ecosystem. Their status is of concern because salmon abundance is highly variable—including protected stocks, a recently closed fishery, and actively managed fisheries that provide substantial ecosystem services. Variable ocean conditions, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), have influenced these fisheries, while diminished diversity of freshwater habitats have increased variability via the portfolio effect. We address the question of how recent changes in ocean conditions will affect populations of two salmon species. Since the 1980s, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have been more frequently associated with central tropical Pacific warming (CPW) rather than the canonical eastern Pacific warming ENSO (EPW). CPW is linked to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), whereas EPW is linked to the PDO, different indicators of northeast Pacific Ocean ecosystem productivity. Here we show that both coho and Chinook salmon survival rates along western North America indicate that the NPGO, rather than the PDO, explains salmon survival since the 1980s. The observed increase in NPGO variance in recent decades was accompanied by an increase in coherence of local survival rates of these two species, increasing salmon variability via the portfolio effect. Such increases in coherence among salmon stocks are usually attributed to controllable freshwater influences such as hatcheries and habitat degradation, but the unknown mechanism underlying the ocean climate effect identified here is not directly subject to management actions. PMID:26240365

  14. High-dose nimotuzumab improves the survival rate of esophageal cancer patients who underwent radiotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Chunyu; Fu, Xiaolong; Cai, Xuwei; Wu, Xianghua; Hu, Xichun; Fan, Min; Xiang, Jiaqing; Zhang, Yawei; Chen, Haiquan; Jiang, Guoliang; Zhao, Kuaile

    2016-01-01

    Nimotuzumab (h-R3) is a humanized monoclonal antibody that is safe to use against epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR). However, the available information is insufficient about the dose effect of monoclonal antibody against epidermal growth factor receptor for the treatment of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). We retrospectively recruited 66 patients with ESCC who were treated with h-R3 and chemoradiotherapy/radiotherapy. Patients who received more than 1,200 mg of h-R3 were classified as the high-dose group, and the remaining patients were classified as the low-dose group. The endpoint for efficacy was the overall survival. Differences in survival between the groups were analyzed using the log-rank test. The Cox proportional hazards model was used in multivariate analysis to identify independent prognostic factors. The low-dose and high-dose groups comprised 55 and eleven patients, respectively. The median follow-up time in the final analysis was 46 months. The high-dose group showed no increased incidence of toxicities compared to the low-dose group. The 1-, 2-, and 5-year overall survival rates in the low-dose and high-dose groups were 66.9%, 50.0%, 31.5% and 90.0%, 80.0%, 66.7%, respectively (P=0.04). Multivariate analyses showed that the high-dose group had better survival than the low-dose group (hazard ratio 0.28, 95% confidence interval 0.09–0.94, P=0.039). Taken together, high-dose h-R3 showed limited toxicity and improved survival in patients with ESCC. PMID:26766917

  15. Effects of Saccharomyces cerevisiae on survival rate and growth performance of Convict Cichlid (Amatitlania nigrofasciata)

    PubMed Central

    Mohammadi, F; Mousavi, S. M.; Ahmadmoradi, E.; Zakeri, M.; Jahedi, A.

    2015-01-01

    Using probiotics can control pathogens by a variety of mechanisms. Probiotics can promote growth performance and have, therefore, become increasingly important in the aquaculture industry. Convict Cichlid belongs to the family of Cichlidae and is known for its rapid development in laboratory conditions and is suitable for behavioral examinations. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of Saccharomyces cerevisiae on growth performance, survival rate and body composition of Convict Cichlids (Amatitlania nigrofasciata). One hundred sixty eight Convict Cichlids (mean weight: 2.1 ± 0.12 g and mean length: 2.2 ± 0.05 cm) were fed by commercial diets with different concentrations of S. cerevisiae (0, 0.5%, 1%, 2%). At the end of the experiment, survival rate and growth indices were measured. Based on the results, growth performance significantly increased with probiotic, S. cerevisiae, specially, at the 2% probiotic level of concentration. In the present study, the best FCR (feed conversion rate), SGR (specific growth rate), CF (condition factor) and BWG (body weight gain) values were observed in a 2% concentration of S. cerevisiae. The results suggest that this yeast could improve feed utilization in this fish species. PMID:27175152

  16. Effects of Saccharomyces cerevisiae on survival rate and growth performance of Convict Cichlid (Amatitlania nigrofasciata).

    PubMed

    Mohammadi, F; Mousavi, S M; Ahmadmoradi, E; Zakeri, M; Jahedi, A

    2015-01-01

    Using probiotics can control pathogens by a variety of mechanisms. Probiotics can promote growth performance and have, therefore, become increasingly important in the aquaculture industry. Convict Cichlid belongs to the family of Cichlidae and is known for its rapid development in laboratory conditions and is suitable for behavioral examinations. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of Saccharomyces cerevisiae on growth performance, survival rate and body composition of Convict Cichlids (Amatitlania nigrofasciata). One hundred sixty eight Convict Cichlids (mean weight: 2.1 ± 0.12 g and mean length: 2.2 ± 0.05 cm) were fed by commercial diets with different concentrations of S. cerevisiae (0, 0.5%, 1%, 2%). At the end of the experiment, survival rate and growth indices were measured. Based on the results, growth performance significantly increased with probiotic, S. cerevisiae, specially, at the 2% probiotic level of concentration. In the present study, the best FCR (feed conversion rate), SGR (specific growth rate), CF (condition factor) and BWG (body weight gain) values were observed in a 2% concentration of S. cerevisiae. The results suggest that this yeast could improve feed utilization in this fish species.

  17. Analysis of recurrence and survival rates in grade 3 endometrioid endometrial carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jieyu; Jia, Nan; Li, Qing; Wang, Chao; Tao, Xiang; Hua, Keqin; Feng, Weiwei

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to determine risk factors associated with recurrence and survival in patients with grade 3 endometrioid endometrial carcinoma (G3EEC). A retrospective analysis of 117 patients with G3EEC, who were admitted to the Obstetrics and Gynecology Hospital of Fudan University between January 2000 and December 2011, was performed. The χ2 test or Fisher's exact test were used for the comparison of categorical variables. Kaplan-Meier method was used for estimating recurrence-free survival (RFS), disease-specific survival (DSS) and overall survival (OS) rates. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards model were used to assess the prognostic significance of various patient characteristics. In 117 patients, 16 patients (13.7%) had tumor recurrence, of which 6 (37.5%) developed local-regional recurrence and 10 (62.5%) developed distant recurrence. Out of the 16 patients with tumor recurrence, 14 (87.5%) had a recurrence within 3 years of surgery. Statistically significant characteristics affecting RFS, DSS and OS rates were outer half myometrial invasion (MI ≥50%), advanced International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage, positive lymph node metastasis (PLNM), lymph vascular space invasion, adnexal involvement and characterization as a high-risk group, according to the Gynecologic Oncology Group 99 stratification algorithm. RFS was associated with the depth of cervical mucosa (stromal) involvement. Furthermore, in the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, significant independent adverse factors for RFS and DSS included MI ≥50% and adnexal involvement. For OS, there were no statistically significant prognostic factors. In conclusion, MI ≥50% and adnexal involvement are independent prognostic factors for RFS and DSS in G3EEC patients. PMID:27698871

  18. Study of Survival Rate After Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (CPR) in Hospitals of Kermanshah in 2013

    PubMed Central

    Goodarzi, Afshin; Jalali, Amir; Almasi, Afshin; Naderipour, Arsalan; Kalhori, Reza Pourmirza; Khodadadi, Amineh

    2015-01-01

    Background: After CPR, the follow-up of survival rate and caused complications are the most important practices of the medical group. This study was performed aimed at determining the follow-up results after CPR in patients of university hospitals in Kermanshah in 2014. Methods: In this prospective study, 320 samples were examined. A purposive sampling method was used, and data was collected using a researcher-made information form with content and face validity and reliability of r= 0.79. Data was analyzed with STATA9 software and statistical tests, including calculation of the success rate, relative risk (RR), chi-square and Fisher at significance level of P < 0.05. Results: The initial success rate of cardiopulmonary resuscitation was equal to 15.3%, while the ultimate success rate (discharged alive from the hospital) was as 10.6%. The six-month success rate after resuscitation was 8.78% than those who were discharged alive. There were no significant statistical differences between different age groups regarding the initial success rate of resuscitation (P = 0.14), and the initial resuscitation success rate was higher in patients in morning shift (P = 0.02). Conclusion: By the results of study, it is recommended to increase the medical - nursing knowledge and techniques for personnel in the evening and night shifts. Also, an appropriate dissemination of health care staff in working shifts should be done to increase the success rate of CPR procedure. PMID:25560341

  19. Total Ankle Replacement Survival Rates Based on Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis of National Joint Registry Data.

    PubMed

    Bartel, Annette F P; Roukis, Thomas S

    2015-10-01

    National joint registry data provides unique information about primary total ankle replacement (TAR) survival. We sought to recreate survival curves among published national joint registry data sets using the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Overall, 5152 primary and 591 TAR revisions were included over a 2- to 13-year period with prosthesis survival for all national joint registries of 0.94 at 2-years, 0.87 at 5-years and 0.81 at 10-years. National joint registry datasets should strive for completion of data presentation including revision definitions, modes and time of failure, and patients lost to follow-up or death for complete accuracy of the Kaplan-Meier estimator.

  20. Local annual survival and seasonal residency rates of semipalmated sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) in Puerto rico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rice, S.M.; Collazo, J.A.; Alldredge, M.W.; Harrington, B.A.; Lewis, A.R.

    2007-01-01

    We report seasonal residency and local annual survival rates of migratory Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) at the Cabo Rojo salt flats, Puerto Rico. Residency rate (daily probability of remaining on the flats) was 0.991 ?? 0.001 (x?? ?? SE), yielding a mean length of stay of 110 days. This finding supports the inclusion of the Caribbean as part of the species' winter range. Average estimated percentage of fat was low but increased throughout the season, which suggests that birds replenish some spent fat reserves and strive for energetic maintenance. Local annual survival rate was 0.62 ?? 0.04, within the range of values reported for breeding populations at Manitoba and Alaska (0.53-0.76). The similarity was not unexpected because estimates were obtained annually but at opposite sites of their annual migratory movements. Birds captured at the salt flats appeared to be a mix of birds from various parts of the breeding range, judging from morphology (culmen's coefficient of variation = 9.1, n = 106). This suggested that origin (breeding area) of birds and their proportion in the data should be ascertained and accounted for in analyses to glean the full conservation implications of winter-based annual survival estimates. Those data are needed to unravel the possibility that individuals of distinct populations are affected by differential mortality factors across different migratory routes. Mean length of stay strongly suggested that habitat quality at the salt flats was high. Rainfall and tidal flow combine to increase food availability during fall. The salt flats dry up gradually toward late January, at the onset of the dry season. Semipalmated Sandpipers may move west to other Greater Antilles or south to sites such as coastal Surinam until the onset of spring migration. They are not an oversummering species at the salt flats. Conservation efforts in the Caribbean region require understanding the dynamics of this species throughout winter to protect

  1. Haptoglobin expression correlates with tumor differentiation and five-year overall survival rate in hepatocellular carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Teng, Tsung-Han; Lin, Ping-Yi; Tu, Siang-Jyun; Chou, Chih-Hung; Huang, Ya-Rong; Huang, Wei-Chih; Weng, Shun-Long; Huang, Hsien-Da; Chen, Yao-Li

    2017-01-01

    Elevated serum haptoglobin (Hp) is identified as a prognostic marker in multiple types of solid tumors, which is correlated with poor prognosis. HCC is one of the major causes of cancer deaths in worldwide, which remains poor prognosis and is clinically urgent for discovering early diagnostic markers. However, except for serum Hp, the correlation of tumor Hp expression with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) progression is still unclear. In this study, we evaluated and identified the tissue Hp expression as a prognostic marker to predict the survival rate of HCC patients. To evaluate the prognostic value of Hp expression for HCC, two cohorts were enrolled in our study, including total 130 matched pair tissue sections (both adjacent non-tumorous and tumor tissue derived from same patient) of HCC patients from Changhua Christian Hospital (CCH) and total 316 RNA-seq data with clinical information of HCC patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. In contrast to other types of cancers, HCC tumor tissues have lower Hp protein expression in CCH cohort and have lower Hp mRNA expression in TCGA cohort as compared with adjacent non-tumorous tissues (p < 0.001). Moreover, lower Hp expression is significantly correlated with different stages of HCC cancer differentiation in CCH cohort (one-way ANOVA, p < 0.001). Most importantly, lower Hp expression is highly correlated with poor five-year overall survival rate in TCGA cohort (p < 0.01). Based on our data, we conclude that tissue Hp expression positively correlates with better HCC tumor differentiation and increased five-year overall survival rate of HCC patients. The results indicated that tissue Hp is potentially a prognostic marker for HCC patients. Our findings may further provide a new insight of effective treatments along with biopsy diagnosis of HCC patients. PMID:28158312

  2. Diabetic foot reconstruction using free flaps increases 5-year-survival rate.

    PubMed

    Oh, Tae Suk; Lee, Ho Seung; Hong, Joon Pio

    2013-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcome of the diabetic foot reconstructed with free flaps and analyse the preoperative risk factors. This study reviews 121 cases of reconstructed diabetic foot in 113 patients over 9 years (average follow-up of 53.2 months). Patients' age ranged from 26 to 78 years (average, 54.6 years). Free flaps used were anterolateral thigh (ALT, 90), superficial circumflex iliac artery perforator (SCIP, 20), anteromedial thigh (AMT, 5), upper medial thigh (UMT, 3), and other perforator free flaps (3). Correlation between the surgical outcome and preoperative risk factors were analysed using logistic regression model. Total loss was seen in 10 cases and 111 free-tissue transfers were successful (flap survival rate of 91.7%). During follow-up, limb was eventually lost in 17 patients and overall limb salvage rate was 84.9% and the 5-year survival was 86.8%. Correlation between flap loss and 14 preoperative risk factors (computed tomography (CT) angiogram showing intact numbers of major vessels, history of previous angioplasty, peripheral arterial disease (PAD), heart problem, chronic renal failure (CRF), American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) physical status classification system, smoking, body mass index (BMI), HBA1c, lymphocyte count, ankle-brachial index (ABI), osteomyelitis, C-reactive protein (CRP) level and whether taking immunosuppressive agents) were analysed. Significant odds ratio were seen in patients who underwent lower extremity angioplasties (odds ratio: 17.590, p<0.001), with PAD (odds ratio: 10.212, p=0.032) and taking immunosuppressive agents after kidney transplantation (odds ratio: 4.857, p<0.041). Diabetic foot reconstruction using free flaps has a high chance for success and significantly increases the 5-year survival rate. Risk factors such as PAD, history of angioplasties in the extremity and using immunosuppressive agents after transplant may increase the chance for flap loss.

  3. Actuarial risk assessment: commentary on Berlin et al.

    PubMed

    Hart, Stephen D

    2003-10-01

    F. S. Berlin, N. W. Galbreath, B. Geary, and G. McGlone (this issue) have raised some important questions regarding the use of acturial risk assessment instruments in sex offender civil commitment proceedings, also known as sexually violent predator or SVP proceedings. Their primary point is that interpreting the findings of existing actuarial risk assessment instruments is a tricky business because it is not certain whether the extent to which probability estimates derived from group data can be applied to individual cases. I agree completely with Berlin et al. on this point, but disagree with them concerning the extent to which probability estimates--and, therefore, actuarial instruments--are legally relevant in SVP proceedings. I outline some potential problems with respect to the legal admissibility of actuarial instruments, including their legal relevance.

  4. [Survival and success rate of dental implants treated with high intensity laser].

    PubMed

    Joób-Fancsaly, Arpád; Divinyi, Tamás; Karacs, Albert; Koncz, Szilvia; Pető, Gábor; Sulyok, Lili

    2015-09-01

    Clinical and radiological evaluations were conducted in patients with high energy Nd : glass laser-treated dental implants. These patients underwent dental implantation surgery between 1997 and 2006. Strict success criteria were used for the examination and analysis of implants. Based on clinical and radiological evaluation, success and survival rates of laser surface treated dental implants were similar to those of sandblasted, acid-etched surface implants frequently reported in the literature. Specific surface morphology and high degree of purity of laser surface treated dental implants ensure excellent osseointegration and a good clinical performance also on the long-term.

  5. High Survival Rates and Associated Factors Among Ebola Virus Disease Patients Hospitalized at Donka National Hospital, Conakry, Guinea

    PubMed Central

    Qureshi, Adnan I.; Chughtai, Morad; Bah, Elhadj Ibrahima; Barry, Moumié; Béavogui, Kézély; Loua, Tokpagnan Oscar; Malik, Ahmed A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Anecdotal reports suggesting that survival rates among hospitalized patients with Ebola virus disease in Guinea are higher than the 29.2% rate observed in the current epidemic in West Africa. Methods Survival after symptom onset was determined using Kaplan Meier survival methods among patients with confirmed Ebola virus disease treated in Conakry, Guinea from March 25, 2014, to August 5, 2014. We analyzed the relationship between survival and patient factors, including demographics and clinical features. Results Of the 70 patients analyzed [mean age ± standard deviation (SD), 34 ± 14.1; 44 were men], 42 were discharged alive with a survival rate among hospitalized patients of 60% (95% confidence interval, 41.5–78.5%). The survival rate was 28 (71.8%) among 39 patients under 34 years of age, and 14 (46.7%) among 30 patients aged 35 years or greater (p = 0.034). The rates of myalgia (3 of 42 versus 7 of 28, p = 0.036) and hiccups (1 of 42 versus 5 of 28, p = 0.023) were significantly lower among patients who survived. Conclusions Our results provide insights into a cohort of hospitalized patients with Ebola virus disease in whom survival is prominently higher than seen in other cohorts of hospitalized patients. PMID:25992182

  6. An Overview of the Society of Actuaries and Its Education Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klugman, Stuart; Long, Gena

    2014-01-01

    The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is the world's largest actuarial organization. This article describes the SOA with particular attention paid to its education and qualification processes and resources available for university and college programs.

  7. Egg Hatch Rate and Nymphal Survival of the Bed Bug (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) After Exposure to Insecticide Sprays.

    PubMed

    Hinson, K R; Benson, E P; Zungoli, P A; Bridges, W C; Ellis, B R

    2016-12-01

    Few studies have addressed the efficacy of insecticides used against eggs and first-instar nymphs of the bed bug, Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae). Insect eggs are often resistant to insecticides; therefore, information on which products are effective is important. We evaluated the efficacy of four commonly used insecticide sprays applied directly to bed bug eggs. We also evaluated the efficacy of these insecticides to first-instar nymphs exposed to residuals resulting from directly spraying eggs. Temprid SC (beta-cyfluthrin, imidacloprid) was the most effective insecticide at preventing egg hatch (13% hatch rate) for pyrethroid-resistant, field-strain (Jersey City) bed bugs compared with a control (water [99% hatch rate]), Bedlam (MGK-264, sumithrin [84% hatch rate]), Demand CS (lambda-cyhalothrin [91% hatch rate]), and Phantom SC (chlorfenapyr [95% hatch rate]). Demand CS and Temprid SC were most effective at preventing egg hatch (0%) for an insecticide-susceptible (Harold Harlan) strain, followed by Bedlam (28%). Phantom SC produced a hatch rate similar to the control (97% and 96%, respectively). Harold Harlan-strain nymphs showed 100% survival for the control but 0% survival for Bedlam and Phantom SC. Jersey City-strain nymphs showed 100% survival for the control, 99% survival for Bedlam, 0% survival for Demand CS, 4% survival for Phantom SC, and 38% survival for Temprid SC. Demand CS was less effective at preventing hatch (91% hatch rate) of Jersey City-strain nymphs but was the only product to kill all nymphs (0% survival). One of the least effective products for preventing Jersey City-strain egg hatch (Phantom SC, 95% hatch rate) was the second most effective at killing nymphs, leaving only six of 141 alive. These findings indicate that survival of directly sprayed eggs and residually exposed, first-instar nymphs varies by strain, life stage, and product used.

  8. Comparing measurement error correction methods for rate-of-change exposure variables in survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Veronesi, Giovanni; Ferrario, Marco M; Chambless, Lloyd E

    2013-12-01

    In this article we focus on comparing measurement error correction methods for rate-of-change exposure variables in survival analysis, when longitudinal data are observed prior to the follow-up time. Motivational examples include the analysis of the association between changes in cardiovascular risk factors and subsequent onset of coronary events. We derive a measurement error model for the rate of change, estimated through subject-specific linear regression, assuming an additive measurement error model for the time-specific measurements. The rate of change is then included as a time-invariant variable in a Cox proportional hazards model, adjusting for the first time-specific measurement (baseline) and an error-free covariate. In a simulation study, we compared bias, standard deviation and mean squared error (MSE) for the regression calibration (RC) and the simulation-extrapolation (SIMEX) estimators. Our findings indicate that when the amount of measurement error is substantial, RC should be the preferred method, since it has smaller MSE for estimating the coefficients of the rate of change and of the variable measured without error. However, when the amount of measurement error is small, the choice of the method should take into account the event rate in the population and the effect size to be estimated. An application to an observational study, as well as examples of published studies where our model could have been applied, are also provided.

  9. Modeling the effect of temperature on survival rate of Salmonella Enteritidis in yogurt.

    PubMed

    Szczawiński, J; Szczawińska, M E; Łobacz, A; Jackowska-Tracz, A

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the study was to determine the inactivation rates of Salmonella Enteritidis in commercially produced yogurt and to generate primary and secondary mathematical models to predict the behaviour of these bacteria during storage at different temperatures. The samples were inoculated with the mixture of three S. Enteritidis strains and stored at 5 degrees C, 10 degrees C, 15 degrees C, 20 degrees C and 25 degrees C for 24 h. The number of salmonellae was determined every two hours. It was found that the number of bacteria decreased linearly with storage time in all samples. Storage temperature and pH of yogurt significantly influenced survival rate of S. Enteritidis (p < 0.05). In samples kept at 5 degrees C the number of salmonellae decreased at the lowest rate, whereas at 25 degrees C the reduction in number of bacteria was the most dynamic. The natural logarithm of mean inactivation rates of Salmonella calculated from primary model was fitted to two secondary models: linear and polynomial. Equations obtained from both secondary models can be applied as a tool for prediction of inactivation rate of Salmonella in yogurt stored under temperature range from 5 to 25 degrees C; however, polynomial model gave the better fit to the experimental data.

  10. Tidal and seasonal effects on survival rates of the endangered California clapper rail: does invasive Spartina facilitate greater survival in a dynamic environment?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Overton, Cory T.; Casazza, Michael L.; Takekawa, John Y.; Strong, Donald R.; Holyoak, Marcel

    2014-01-01

    Invasive species frequently degrade habitats, disturb ecosystem processes, and can increase the likelihood of extinction of imperiled populations. However, novel or enhanced functions provided by invading species may reduce the impact of processes that limit populations. It is important to recognize how invasive species benefit endangered species to determine overall effects on sensitive ecosystems. For example, since the 1990s, hybrid Spartina (Spartina foliosa × alterniflora) has expanded throughout South San Francisco Bay, USA, supplanting native vegetation and invading mudflats. The endangered California clapper rail (Rallus longirostris obsoletus) uses the tall, dense hybrid Spartina for cover and nesting, but the effects of hybrid Spartina on clapper rail survival was unknown. We estimated survival rates of 108 radio-marked California clapper rails in South San Francisco Bay from January 2007 to March 2010, a period of extensive hybrid Spartina eradication, with Kaplan–Meier product limit estimators. Clapper rail survival patterns were consistent with hybrid Spartina providing increased refuge cover from predators during tidal extremes which flood native vegetation, particularly during the winter when the vegetation senesces. Model averaged annual survival rates within hybrid Spartina dominated marshes before eradication (Ŝ = 0.466) were greater than the same marshes posttreatment (Ŝ = 0.275) and a marsh dominated by native vegetation (Ŝ = 0.272). However, models with and without marsh treatment as explanatory factor for survival rates had nearly equivalent support in the observed data, lending ambiguity as to whether hybrid Spartina facilitated greater survival rates than native marshland. Conservation actions to aid in recovery of this endangered species should recognize the importance of available of high tide refugia, particularly in light of invasive species eradication programs and projections of future sea-level rise.

  11. Myasthenia gravis in patients with thymoma affects survival rate following extended thymectomy

    PubMed Central

    ZHANG, ZHEFENG; CUI, YOUBIN; JIA, RUI; XUE, LEI; LIANG, HUAGANG

    2016-01-01

    Thymomas are the most common adult tumors in the anterior mediastinal compartment, and a significant amount of thymomas are complicated by myasthenia gravis (MG). Extended thymectomy (ET) is the primary treatment method for thymomas and is used to completely resect possible ectopic thymus to avoid recurrence. Studies on the effect of MG in thymoma patients following ET are limited. The aim of the present study was to determine whether the presence of MG affects the prognosis of patients with thymoma. The present study consisted of 104 patients with thymoma that underwent ET; 61 men (58.7%) and 43 women (41.3%) (mean age, 54.6 years). In total, 38 patients had MG (36.5%). MG was most frequently observed in World Health Organization (WHO) classification type B2 thymoma compared with other types of thymoma. During the 5-year follow-up period, 11 patients succumbed to a recurrence of thymoma or respiratory failure due to MG. The overall 5-year survival rate in patients without MG or with MG was 89.1 and 76.0%, respectively. The overall survival (OS) rate in patients with Masaoka stages I + II and III + IV was 90.0 and 68.0%, respectively. The OS rate in patients with WHO type A + AB + B1 and type B2 + B3 was 96.9 and 76.8%, respectively. The patients with MG (P=0.026), Masaoka stages III + IV (P=0.008) and WHO type B2 + B3 (P=0.032) had a poorer prognosis compared with patients without these characteristics. Furthermore, multivariate analysis by Cox regression revealed that age [P=0.032; relative risk (RR)=1.097; 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.097–1.192] and MG (P=0.042; RR=0.167; 95% CI=0.037–0.940) significantly affected OS rate. In summary, ET is a reliable method for the treatment of thymoma. Long-term survival is expected for patients at early Masaoka stages, and for patients without MG. The prognosis of patients with thymomas with MG is poorer compared with patients without MG. The present findings provide useful information for the future management of

  12. 20 CFR 901.20 - Standards of performance of actuarial services.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Standards of performance of actuarial services. 901.20 Section 901.20 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS... enrolled actuary shall exercise due care, skill, prudence and diligence to ensure that: (1) The...

  13. Including an Exam P/1 Prep Course in a Growing Actuarial Science Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wakefield, Thomas P.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe the actuarial science program at our university and the development of a course to enhance students' problem solving skills while preparing them for Exam P/1 of the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and the Casualty Actuary Society (CAS). The Exam P/1 prep course, formally titled Mathematical Foundations of…

  14. 29 CFR 2520.104-42 - Waiver of certain actuarial information in the annual report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 9 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Waiver of certain actuarial information in the annual... Reporting and Disclosure Requirements § 2520.104-42 Waiver of certain actuarial information in the annual... ERISA that the annual report include as part of the actuarial statement (Schedule B) 1 the present...

  15. The Undergraduate Statistics Major--A Prelude to Actuarial Science Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ratliff, Michael I.; Williams, Raymond E.

    Recently there has been increased interest related to the Actuarial Science field. An actuary is a business professional who uses mathematical skills to define, analyze, and solve financial and social problems. This paper examines: (1) the interface between Statistical and Actuarial Science training; (2) statistical courses corresponding to…

  16. 75 FR 6359 - Federal Advisory Committee; DoD Board of Actuaries; Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-02-09

    ... of the Secretary Federal Advisory Committee; DoD Board of Actuaries; Meeting AGENCY: Department of... amended), and 41 CFR 102-3.150, the Department of Defense announces that the DoD Board of Actuaries will..., VA 22203. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Inger Pettygrove at the DoD Office of the Actuary, 4040...

  17. 75 FR 22754 - Federal Advisory Committee; Department of Defense Board of Actuaries; Charter Renewal

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-04-30

    ... of the Secretary Federal Advisory Committee; Department of Defense Board of Actuaries; Charter... Defense gives notice that it is renewing the charter for the Department of Defense Board of Actuaries... members appointed by the Secretary of Defense from among qualified professional actuaries who are...

  18. 76 FR 67774 - Actuarial Advisory Committee With Respect to the Railroad Retirement Account; Notice of Public...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-02

    ... hold a meeting on November 14, 2011, at 9:30 a.m. at the office of the Chief Actuary of the U.S... experience on which the recommendations are based will have been sent by the Chief Actuary to the Committee... Advisory Committee, cio Chief Actuary, U.S. Railroad Retirement Board, 844 North Rush Street,...

  19. 75 FR 47650 - Actuarial Advisory Committee With Respect to the Railroad Retirement Account; Notice of Public...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-06

    ... hold a meeting on September 23, 2010, at 9:30 a.m. at the office of the Chief Actuary of the U.S... experience on which the recommendations are based will have been sent by the Chief Actuary to the Committee... Advisory Committee, c/o Chief Actuary, U.S. Railroad Retirement Board, 844 North Rush Street,...

  20. 26 CFR 300.8 - Renewal of enrollment of enrolled actuary fee.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Renewal of enrollment of enrolled actuary fee...) PROCEDURE AND ADMINISTRATION USER FEES § 300.8 Renewal of enrollment of enrolled actuary fee. (a) Applicability. This section applies to the renewal of enrollment of enrolled actuaries with the Joint Board...

  1. 77 FR 24233 - Actuarial Advisory Committee With Respect to the Railroad Retirement Account; Notice of Public...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-04-23

    ... hold a meeting on May 30, 2012, at 9:30 a.m. at the office of the Chief Actuary of the U.S. Railroad... communications or notices to the RRB Actuarial Advisory Committee, c/o Chief Actuary, U.S. Railroad...

  2. The Role of an Actuarial Director in the Development of an Introductory Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Staples, Susan G.

    2014-01-01

    We describe the roles and duties of a director in developing an introductory actuarial program. Degree plan design, specialized exam courses, internship classes, coordination of efforts with Economics and Finance Departments, opportunities for creating a minor in actuarial mathematics, actuarial clubs, career advice, and interaction with actuarial…

  3. Effect of nitric oxide on spinal evoked potentials and survival rate in rats with decompression sickness.

    PubMed

    Randsoe, T; Meehan, C F; Broholm, H; Hyldegaard, O

    2015-01-01

    Nitric oxide (NO) releasing agents have, in experimental settings, been shown to decrease intravascular nitrogen bubble formation and to increase the survival rate during decompression sickness (DCS) from diving. The effect has been ascribed to a possible removal of preexisting micronuclei or an increased nitrogen washout on decompression through augmented blood flow rate. The present experiments were conducted to investigate whether a short- or long-acting NO donor [glycerol trinitrate (GTN) or isosorbide-5-mononitrate (ISMN), respectively] would offer the same protection against spinal cord DCS evaluated by means of spinal evoked potentials (SEPs). Anesthetized rats were decompressed from a 1-h hyperbaric air dive at 506.6 kPa (40 m of seawater) for 3 min and 17 s, and spinal cord conduction was studied by measurements of SEPs. Histological samples of the spinal cord were analyzed for lesions of DCS. In total, 58 rats were divided into 6 different treatment groups. The first three received either saline (group 1), 300 mg/kg iv ISMN (group 2), or 10 mg/kg ip GTN (group 3) before compression. The last three received either 300 mg/kg iv ISMN (group 4), 1 mg/kg iv GTN (group 5), or 75 μg/kg iv GTN (group 6) during the dive, before decompression. In all groups, decompression caused considerable intravascular bubble formation. The ISMN groups showed no difference compared with the control group, whereas the GTN groups showed a tendency toward faster SEP disappearance and shorter survival times. In conclusion, neither a short- nor long-acting NO donor had any protective effect against fatal DCS by intravenous bubble formation. This effect is most likely due to a fast ascent rate overriding the protective effects of NO, rather than the total inert tissue gas load.

  4. Actuarial Science at One Four-Year Comprehensive University

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Charlwood, Kevin E.

    2014-01-01

    Building an Actuarial Science program designated as advanced requires dedicated faculty, support from the administration, and a core group of strong students. Washburn University may serve as a model for those wishing to start or enhance such a program at their institution. We face three main ongoing challenges: first, the hiring and retention of…

  5. Quantitative Synthesis: An Actuarial Base for Planning Impact Evaluations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cordray, David S.; Sonnefeld, L. Joseph

    1985-01-01

    There are numerous micro-level methods decisions associated with planning an impact evaluation. Quantitative synthesis methods can be used to construct an actuarial data base for establishing the likelihood of achieving desired sample sizes, statistical power, and measurement characteristics. (Author/BS)

  6. Starting an Actuarial Science Major at a Liberal Arts College

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mills, Mark A.

    2014-01-01

    The article provides details of the process of starting an actuarial science major at a small, liberal arts college. Some critique of the major is included, as well as some challenges that may be faced by others wanting to start such a major at their institution.

  7. Conversations with your actuary: getting to the right number.

    PubMed

    Frese, Richard C

    2013-05-01

    A healthcare finance leader can guarantee recognition of his or her organization's insurance program and better manage the program's liability by discussing changes in the following areas with an actuary: Claims management. Exposure. Coverage or retention Financial reporting of losses. Management goals. Other insurance and operational matters.

  8. Age specific survival rates of Steller sea lions at rookeries with divergent population trends in the Russian Far East.

    PubMed

    Altukhov, Alexey V; Andrews, Russel D; Calkins, Donald G; Gelatt, Thomas S; Gurarie, Eliezer D; Loughlin, Thomas R; Mamaev, Evgeny G; Nikulin, Victor S; Permyakov, Peter A; Ryazanov, Sergey D; Vertyankin, Vladimir V; Burkanov, Vladimir N

    2015-01-01

    After a dramatic population decline, Steller sea lions have begun to recover throughout most of their range. However, Steller sea lions in the Western Aleutians and Commander Islands are continuing to decline. Comparing survival rates between regions with different population trends may provide insights into the factors driving the dynamics, but published data on vital rates have been extremely scarce, especially in regions where the populations are still declining. Fortunately, an unprecedented dataset of marked Steller sea lions at rookeries in the Russian Far East is available, allowing us to determine age and sex specific survival in sea lions up to 22 years old. We focused on survival rates in three areas in the Russian range with differing population trends: the Commander Islands (Medny Island rookery), Eastern Kamchatka (Kozlov Cape rookery) and the Kuril Islands (four rookeries). Survival rates differed between these three regions, though not necessarily as predicted by population trends. Pup survival was higher where the populations were declining (Medny Island) or not recovering (Kozlov Cape) than in all Kuril Island rookeries. The lowest adult (> 3 years old) female survival was found on Medny Island and this may be responsible for the continued population decline there. However, the highest adult survival was found at Kozlov Cape, not in the Kuril Islands where the population is increasing, so we suggest that differences in birth rates might be an important driver of these divergent population trends. High pup survival on the Commander Islands and Kamchatka Coast may be a consequence of less frequent (e.g. biennial) reproduction there, which may permit females that skip birth years to invest more in their offspring, leading to higher pup survival, but this hypothesis awaits measurement of birth rates in these areas.

  9. Age Specific Survival Rates of Steller Sea Lions at Rookeries with Divergent Population Trends in the Russian Far East

    PubMed Central

    Altukhov, Alexey V.; Andrews, Russel D.; Calkins, Donald G.; Gelatt, Thomas S.; Gurarie, Eliezer D.; Loughlin, Thomas R.; Mamaev, Evgeny G.; Nikulin, Victor S.; Permyakov, Peter A.; Ryazanov, Sergey D.; Vertyankin, Vladimir V.; Burkanov, Vladimir N.

    2015-01-01

    After a dramatic population decline, Steller sea lions have begun to recover throughout most of their range. However, Steller sea lions in the Western Aleutians and Commander Islands are continuing to decline. Comparing survival rates between regions with different population trends may provide insights into the factors driving the dynamics, but published data on vital rates have been extremely scarce, especially in regions where the populations are still declining. Fortunately, an unprecedented dataset of marked Steller sea lions at rookeries in the Russian Far East is available, allowing us to determine age and sex specific survival in sea lions up to 22 years old. We focused on survival rates in three areas in the Russian range with differing population trends: the Commander Islands (Medny Island rookery), Eastern Kamchatka (Kozlov Cape rookery) and the Kuril Islands (four rookeries). Survival rates differed between these three regions, though not necessarily as predicted by population trends. Pup survival was higher where the populations were declining (Medny Island) or not recovering (Kozlov Cape) than in all Kuril Island rookeries. The lowest adult (> 3 years old) female survival was found on Medny Island and this may be responsible for the continued population decline there. However, the highest adult survival was found at Kozlov Cape, not in the Kuril Islands where the population is increasing, so we suggest that differences in birth rates might be an important driver of these divergent population trends. High pup survival on the Commander Islands and Kamchatka Coast may be a consequence of less frequent (e.g. biennial) reproduction there, which may permit females that skip birth years to invest more in their offspring, leading to higher pup survival, but this hypothesis awaits measurement of birth rates in these areas. PMID:26016772

  10. Size-sex variation in survival rates and abundance of pig frogs, Rana grylio, in northern Florida wetlands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wood, K.V.; Nichols, J.D.; Percival, H.F.; Hines, J.E.

    1998-01-01

    During 1991-1993, we conducted capture-recapture studies on pig frogs, Rana grylio, in seven study locations in northcentral Florida. Resulting data were used to test hypotheses about variation in survival probability over different size-sex classes of pig frogs. We developed multistate capture-recapture models for the resulting data and used them to estimate survival rates and frog abundance. Tests provided strong evidence of survival differences among size-sex classes, with adult females showing the highest survival probabilities. Adult males and juvenile frogs had lower survival rates that were similar to each other. Adult females were more abundant than adult males in most locations at most sampling occasions. We recommended probabilistic capture-recapture models in general, and multistate models in particular, for robust estimation of demographic parameters in amphibian populations.

  11. Assessment of survival rates and reproductive success of captive bred milky stork released at Kuala Gula Bird Sanctuary, Perak

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faiq, H.; Safie, M. Y.; Shukor, M. N.

    2016-11-01

    A release programme of captive bred Milky Storks was initiated to increase population size in the wild. Population size depends on the survival rate and breeding success of individuals in the population. Among factors that affect survival rate and breeding success are population age class and sex ratio. The main objective of this study was to estimate the survival rate of Mycteria cinerea that has been released in Kuala Gula Bird Sanctuary since 2007. The estimation of the survival rate was done across gender and age class. This study was conducted in 2012 at Kuala Gula Bird Sanctuary. The presence of M. cinerea individuals were recorded at the sanctuary and identified to background information, such as date of birth, gender and date of release. Females of M. cinerea were estimated to have a higher survival rate (30.0%) than male (16.7%). Across gender, each individual was assigned into 4 different age classes, namely less than 1 year, between 1 and 2 years, between 2 and 3 years, and more than 3 years. The survival rate of individuals less than 1 year was about 50%, between 1 and 2 years was 25%, between 2 and 3 years was 9.1%, and more than 3 years was 0%. This study was intended to facilitate future release programmeme on which gender and age class to emphasize.

  12. Connecting clinical and actuarial prediction with rule-based methods.

    PubMed

    Fokkema, Marjolein; Smits, Niels; Kelderman, Henk; Penninx, Brenda W J H

    2015-06-01

    Meta-analyses comparing the accuracy of clinical versus actuarial prediction have shown actuarial methods to outperform clinical methods, on average. However, actuarial methods are still not widely used in clinical practice, and there has been a call for the development of actuarial prediction methods for clinical practice. We argue that rule-based methods may be more useful than the linear main effect models usually employed in prediction studies, from a data and decision analytic as well as a practical perspective. In addition, decision rules derived with rule-based methods can be represented as fast and frugal trees, which, unlike main effects models, can be used in a sequential fashion, reducing the number of cues that have to be evaluated before making a prediction. We illustrate the usability of rule-based methods by applying RuleFit, an algorithm for deriving decision rules for classification and regression problems, to a dataset on prediction of the course of depressive and anxiety disorders from Penninx et al. (2011). The RuleFit algorithm provided a model consisting of 2 simple decision rules, requiring evaluation of only 2 to 4 cues. Predictive accuracy of the 2-rule model was very similar to that of a logistic regression model incorporating 20 predictor variables, originally applied to the dataset. In addition, the 2-rule model required, on average, evaluation of only 3 cues. Therefore, the RuleFit algorithm appears to be a promising method for creating decision tools that are less time consuming and easier to apply in psychological practice, and with accuracy comparable to traditional actuarial methods.

  13. Capture-recapture estimation of prebreeding survival rate for birds exhibiting delayed maturation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Spendelow, J.A.; Hines, J.E.

    1990-01-01

    Many species of seabirds exhibit delayed maturity and do not return to the natal colony to breed for several years after fledging. Capture-recapture studies are frequently conducted at such breeding colonies and often include marking of young birds. However, because of the absence of these birds from the natal colony during the first few years after banding, the data do not fit neatly into existing capture-recapture models. Here we present a method for estimating prebreeding survival rate from capture-recapture studies on species exhibiting such patterns of delayed maturation. We illustrate the method using data from a capture-recapture study of Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii ) on Falkner Island, Connecticut. The method appears to work well and emphasizes the potential to tailor capture-recapture models to specific field situations.

  14. High survival and homing rate of hand-reared wild-strain mallards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lee, F.B.; Kruse, A.D.

    1973-01-01

    In the summer of 1970, 648 (329 males and 319 females) hand-reared wild-strain mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) were banded and released at the Arrowwood National Wildlife Refuge, Edmunds, North Dakota. The females were also marked with numbered nasal saddles. Liberation was by the gentle release method, and no special effort was made to isolate or condition the ducklings prior to release. Ducklings were placed in an enclosed pond area at 25 to 45 days of age. Altogether, 627 (97 percent) ducklings reached flight age and dispersed gradually into the wild. All had left the release area by 25 November. First-year band recovery reports indicated that 68 (11 percent) of the birds were shot in 15 states. Their migration pattern was similar to that for immature wild mallards banded in North Dakota in 1970.Eighty-nine (33 percent) of a possible 270 marked females returned to Arrowwood Refuge during 1971. When consideration is given to assumed normal natural mortality and crippling loss, an estimated minimum of 43 percent of the surviving females returned to the release area. Returning birds not observed would raise this figure even higher. This potential homing rate is considerably higher than rates reported for other studies using various strains of mallards. Numerous observations of nests and broods indicated that breeding behavior and nesting success were similar to those of wild mallards in the area. The success of this release is attributed to the inherent capability of hand-reared, wild-strain mallards to revert to their wild behavior, and to the high survival to flight age and first fall migration afforded by the gentle release in a sanctuary area. Indications are that releases of this type under the described conditions can be used to increase the breeding population of mallards in a local area.

  15. Chloroquine improves survival and hematopoietic recovery following lethal low dose- rate radiation

    PubMed Central

    Lim, Yiting; Hedayati, Mohammad; Merchant, Akil A.; Zhang, Yonggang; Yu, Hsiang-Hsuan M; Kastan, Michael B.; Matsui, William; DeWeese, Theodore L.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose We have previously shown that the anti-malarial agent chloroquine can abrogate the lethal cellular effects of low dose-rate (LDR) radiation in vitro, most likely by activating the ataxia-telangiectasia mutated (ATM) protein. Here, we demonstrate that chloroquine treatment also protects against lethal doses of LDR radiation in vivo. Methods and Materials C57BL/6 mice were irradiated with total of 12.8 Gy delivered at 9.4 cGy/hr. ATM null mice from the same background were used to determine the influence of ATM. Chloroquine was administered by two intraperitoneal injections of 59.4 μg per 17 g of body weight, 24 hrs and 4 hrs before irradiation. Bone marrow cells isolated from tibia, fibula and vertebral bones were transplanted into lethally irradiated CD45 congenic recipient mice by retro orbital injection. Chimerism was assessed by flow cytometry. In vitro methyl cellulose colony forming assay of whole bone marrow cells as well as FACS analysis of lineage depleted cells was used to assess the effect of chloroquine on progenitor cells. Results Mice pretreated with chloroquine prior to radiation exhibited a significantly higher survival rate compared to mice treated with radiation alone (80 vs.31 percent, p=0.0026). Chloroquine administration prior to radiation did not impact the survival of ATM null mice (p=0.86). Chloroquine also had a significant effect on the early engraftment of bone marrow cells from the irradiated donor mice 6 weeks after the transplantation (4.2 percent vs. 0.4 percent, p=0.015). Conclusion Chloroquine administration prior to radiation had a significant effect on the survival of normal but not ATM null mice strongly suggesting that the in vivo effect like the in vitro effect is also ATM dependent. Chloroquine improved the early engraftment of bone marrow cells from LDR irradiated mice, presumably by protecting the progenitor cells from radiation injury. Chloroquine thus could serve as a very useful drug for protection against the

  16. Chloroquine Improves Survival and Hematopoietic Recovery After Lethal Low-Dose-Rate Radiation

    SciTech Connect

    Lim Yiting; Hedayati, Mohammad; Merchant, Akil A.; Zhang Yonggang; Yu, Hsiang-Hsuan M.; Kastan, Michael B.; Matsui, William; DeWeese, Theodore L.

    2012-11-01

    Purpose: We have previously shown that the antimalarial agent chloroquine can abrogate the lethal cellular effects of low-dose-rate (LDR) radiation in vitro, most likely by activating the ataxia-telangiectasia mutated (ATM) protein. Here, we demonstrate that chloroquine treatment also protects against lethal doses of LDR radiation in vivo. Methods and Materials: C57BL/6 mice were irradiated with a total of 12.8 Gy delivered at 9.4 cGy/hour. ATM null mice from the same background were used to determine the influence of ATM. Chloroquine was administered by two intraperitoneal injections of 59.4 {mu}g per 17 g of body weight, 24 hours and 4 hours before irradiation. Bone marrow cells isolated from tibia, fibula, and vertebral bones were transplanted into lethally irradiated CD45 congenic recipient mice by retroorbital injection. Chimerism was assessed by flow cytometry. In vitro methylcellulose colony-forming assay of whole bone marrow cells and fluorescence activated cell sorting analysis of lineage depleted cells were used to assess the effect of chloroquine on progenitor cells. Results: Mice pretreated with chloroquine before radiation exhibited a significantly higher survival rate than did mice treated with radiation alone (80% vs. 31%, p = 0.0026). Chloroquine administration before radiation did not affect the survival of ATM null mice (p = 0.86). Chloroquine also had a significant effect on the early engraftment of bone marrow cells from the irradiated donor mice 6 weeks after transplantation (4.2% vs. 0.4%, p = 0.015). Conclusion: Chloroquine administration before radiation had a significant effect on the survival of normal but not ATM null mice, strongly suggesting that the in vivo effect, like the in vitro effect, is also ATM dependent. Chloroquine improved the early engraftment of bone marrow cells from LDR-irradiated mice, presumably by protecting the progenitor cells from radiation injury. Chloroquine thus could serve as a very useful drug for protection

  17. Recent research (N = 9,305) underscores the importance of using age-stratified actuarial tables in sex offender risk assessments.

    PubMed

    Wollert, Richard; Cramer, Elliot; Waggoner, Jacqueline; Skelton, Alex; Vess, James

    2010-12-01

    A useful understanding of the relationship between age, actuarial scores, and sexual recidivism can be obtained by comparing the entries in equivalent cells from "age-stratified" actuarial tables. This article reports the compilation of the first multisample age-stratified table of sexual recidivism rates, referred to as the "multisample age-stratified table of sexual recidivism rates (MATS-1)," from recent research on Static-99 and another actuarial known as the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale. The MATS-1 validates the "age invariance effect" that the risk of sexual recidivism declines with advancing age and shows that age-restricted tables underestimate risk for younger offenders and overestimate risk for older offenders. Based on data from more than 9,000 sex offenders, our conclusion is that evaluators should report recidivism estimates from age-stratified tables when they are assessing sexual recidivism risk, particularly when evaluating the aging sex offender.

  18. 38 CFR 3.10 - Dependency and indemnity compensation rate for a surviving spouse.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    .... (1) Increase for children. If the surviving spouse has one or more children under the age of 18 of... indemnity compensation paid monthly to a surviving spouse with one or more children below the age of 18... after the month in which all children of the surviving spouse have attained the age of 18. (f)...

  19. 38 CFR 3.10 - Dependency and indemnity compensation rate for a surviving spouse.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    .... (1) Increase for children. If the surviving spouse has one or more children under the age of 18 of... indemnity compensation paid monthly to a surviving spouse with one or more children below the age of 18... after the month in which all children of the surviving spouse have attained the age of 18. (f)...

  20. 38 CFR 3.24 - Improved pension rates-Surviving children.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ...-Surviving children. 3.24 Section 3.24 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... rates—Surviving children. (a) General. The provisions of this section apply to children of a deceased.... Children in custody of a surviving spouse who has basic eligibility to receive improved pension do not...

  1. 38 CFR 3.24 - Improved pension rates-Surviving children.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ...-Surviving children. 3.24 Section 3.24 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... rates—Surviving children. (a) General. The provisions of this section apply to children of a deceased.... Children in custody of a surviving spouse who has basic eligibility to receive improved pension do not...

  2. 38 CFR 3.24 - Improved pension rates-Surviving children.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ...-Surviving children. 3.24 Section 3.24 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS... rates—Surviving children. (a) General. The provisions of this section apply to children of a deceased.... Children in custody of a surviving spouse who has basic eligibility to receive improved pension do not...

  3. Estimating the effect of hunting on annual survival rates of adult mallards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burnham, Kenneth P.; White, Gary C.; Anderson, David R.

    1984-01-01

    Management programs for waterfowl populations include rationale for, and establishment of, hunting regulations. These programs rest partially on the results of scientific studies on the effect of harvest rates on annual survival rates. The evidence of this relationship has changed markedly since the mid-1970's, and it is not widely believed that a largely compensatory relationship exists between hunting mortality and other forms of mortality for the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos). This paper employs a general probabilistic model formulated to include a parameter (b) representing a continuum between complete compensation (b=0) and total additivity (b=1). Maximum likelihood estimates of this parameter were computer for 47 data sets of adult mallards banded throughout North American before hunting commenced. We found additional evidence of a highly compensatory mortality process for adult male mallards, while the evidence for adults female mallards remains inconclusive. Effective harvest, land acquisition, and land management programs depend upon additional information on the chronology and mechanisms underlying a compensatory mortality process.

  4. Effects of pond salinization on survival rate of amphibian hosts infected with the chytrid fungus.

    PubMed

    Stockwell, Michelle Pirrie; Storrie, Lachlan James; Pollard, Carla Jean; Clulow, John; Mahony, Michael Joseph

    2015-04-01

    The chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis has been implicated in the decline and extinction of amphibian populations worldwide, but management options are limited. Recent studies show that sodium chloride (NaCl) has fungicidal properties that reduce the mortality rates of infected hosts in captivity. We investigated whether similar results can be obtained by adding salt to water bodies in the field. We increased the salinity of 8 water bodies to 2 or 4 ppt and left an additional 4 water bodies with close to 0 ppt and monitored salinity for 18 months. Captively bred tadpoles of green and golden bell frog (Litoria aurea) were released into each water body and their development, levels of B. dendrobatidis infection, and survival were monitored at 1, 4, and 12 months. The effect of salt on the abundance of nontarget organisms was also investigated in before and after style analyses. Salinities remained constant over time with little intervention. Hosts in water bodies with 4 ppt salt had a significantly lower prevalence of chytrid infection and higher survival, following metamorphosis, than hosts in 0 ppt salt. Tadpoles in the 4 ppt group were smaller in length after 1 month in the release site than those in the 0 and 2 ppt groups, but after metamorphosis body size in all water bodies was similar . In water bodies with 4 ppt salt, the abundance of dwarf tree frogs (Litoria fallax), dragonfly larvae, and damselfly larvae was lower than in water bodies with 0 and 2 ppt salt, which could have knock-on effects for community structure. Based on our results, salt may be an effective field-based B. dendrobatidis mitigation tool for lentic amphibians that could contribute to the conservation of numerous susceptible species. However, as in all conservation efforts, these benefits need to be weighed against negative effects on both target and nontarget organisms.

  5. Abundance and Survival Rates of the Hawai’i Island Associated Spinner Dolphin (Stenella longirostris) Stock

    PubMed Central

    Tyne, Julian A.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Johnston, David W.; Bejder, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Reliable population estimates are critical to implement effective management strategies. The Hawai’i Island spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) is a genetically distinct stock that displays a rigid daily behavioural pattern, foraging offshore at night and resting in sheltered bays during the day. Consequently, they are exposed to frequent human interactions and disturbance. We estimated population parameters of this spinner dolphin stock using a systematic sampling design and capture–recapture models. From September 2010 to August 2011, boat-based photo-identification surveys were undertaken monthly over 132 days (>1,150 hours of effort; >100,000 dorsal fin images) in the four main resting bays along the Kona Coast, Hawai’i Island. All images were graded according to photographic quality and distinctiveness. Over 32,000 images were included in the analyses, from which 607 distinctive individuals were catalogued and 214 were highly distinctive. Two independent estimates of the proportion of highly distinctive individuals in the population were not significantly different (p = 0.68). Individual heterogeneity and time variation in capture probabilities were strongly indicated for these data; therefore capture–recapture models allowing for these variations were used. The estimated annual apparent survival rate (product of true survival and permanent emigration) was 0.97 SE±0.05. Open and closed capture–recapture models for the highly distinctive individuals photographed at least once each month produced similar abundance estimates. An estimate of 221±4.3 SE highly distinctive spinner dolphins, resulted in a total abundance of 631±60.1 SE, (95% CI 524–761) spinner dolphins in the Hawai’i Island stock, which is lower than previous estimates. When this abundance estimate is considered alongside the rigid daily behavioural pattern, genetic distinctiveness, and the ease of human access to spinner dolphins in their preferred resting habitats, this

  6. Abundance and survival rates of the Hawai'i Island associated spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) stock.

    PubMed

    Tyne, Julian A; Pollock, Kenneth H; Johnston, David W; Bejder, Lars

    2014-01-01

    Reliable population estimates are critical to implement effective management strategies. The Hawai'i Island spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) is a genetically distinct stock that displays a rigid daily behavioural pattern, foraging offshore at night and resting in sheltered bays during the day. Consequently, they are exposed to frequent human interactions and disturbance. We estimated population parameters of this spinner dolphin stock using a systematic sampling design and capture-recapture models. From September 2010 to August 2011, boat-based photo-identification surveys were undertaken monthly over 132 days (>1,150 hours of effort; >100,000 dorsal fin images) in the four main resting bays along the Kona Coast, Hawai'i Island. All images were graded according to photographic quality and distinctiveness. Over 32,000 images were included in the analyses, from which 607 distinctive individuals were catalogued and 214 were highly distinctive. Two independent estimates of the proportion of highly distinctive individuals in the population were not significantly different (p = 0.68). Individual heterogeneity and time variation in capture probabilities were strongly indicated for these data; therefore capture-recapture models allowing for these variations were used. The estimated annual apparent survival rate (product of true survival and permanent emigration) was 0.97 SE ± 0.05. Open and closed capture-recapture models for the highly distinctive individuals photographed at least once each month produced similar abundance estimates. An estimate of 221 ± 4.3 SE highly distinctive spinner dolphins, resulted in a total abundance of 631 ± 60.1 SE, (95% CI 524-761) spinner dolphins in the Hawai'i Island stock, which is lower than previous estimates. When this abundance estimate is considered alongside the rigid daily behavioural pattern, genetic distinctiveness, and the ease of human access to spinner dolphins in their preferred resting habitats, this Hawai'i Island

  7. Daily nest survival rates of Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus): assessing local- and landscape-scale drivers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stanley, Thomas R.; Cameron Aldridge,; Joanne Saher,; Theresa Childers,

    2015-01-01

    The Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of conservation concern and is a candidate for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act because of substantial declines in populations from historic levels. It is thought that loss, fragmentation, and deterioration of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitat have contributed to the decline and isolation of this species into seven geographically distinct subpopulations. Nest survival is known to be a primary driver of demography of Greater Sage-Grouse (C. urophasianus), but no unbiased estimates of daily nest survival rates (hereafter nest survival) exist for Gunnison Sage-Grouse or published studies identifying factors that influence nest survival. We estimated nest survival of Gunnison Sage-Grouse for the western portion of Colorado's Gunnison Basin subpopulation, and assessed the effects and relative importance of local- and landscape-scale habitat characteristics on nest survival. Our top performing model was one that allowed variation in nest survival among areas, suggesting a larger landscape-area effect. Overall nest success during a 38-day nesting period (egg-laying plus incubation) was 50% (daily survival rate; SE  =  0.982 [0.003]), which is higher than previous estimates for Gunnison Sage-Grouse and generally higher than published for the closely related Greater Sage-Grouse. We did not find strong evidence that local-scale habitat variables were better predictors of nest survival than landscape-scale predictors, nor did we find strong evidence that any of the habitat variables we measured were good predictors of nest survival. Nest success of Gunnison Sage-Grouse in the western portion of the Gunnison Basin was higher than previously believed.

  8. Changes in the management and survival rates of patients with oral cancer: a 30-year single-institution study

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Objectives The aim of the present study was to evaluate changes in the management and 5-year survival rates of patients with oral cancer in our department over a 30-year period. Materials and Methods We investigated the patient distributions, treatment methods, method of neck dissection according to cancer stage, and 5-year survival rates for 700 oral cancer patients over the periods of 1982–1996 (256 patients), 1999–2006 (248 patients), and 2007–2011 (196 patients). Results Stage IV patients were the largest group in all of the time periods evaluated. Although surgery and radiotherapy were the most common methods in all periods (over 50%), the prevalence of patients who underwent concomitant chemoradiotherapy increased from 7.0% to 16.2%. The use of radical neck dissection decreased from 43.0% to 5.3%, while conservative surgical methods increased from 24.1% to 76.3%. Lastly, the overall 5-year survival rate increased from 31.6% to 63.5% during the study period. Conclusion Although the 5-year survival rate reached the same level as that of other developed countries during the course of our study, most patients continue to come to the hospital with stage IV disease. In order to increase the 5-year survival rate of oral carcinoma, it may be necessary to improve public education and social efforts relevant to early diagnosis. PMID:26904492

  9. Survival Rates of Juvenile Salmonids Passing Through the Bonneville Dam and Spillway in 2008

    SciTech Connect

    Ploskey, Gene R.; Weiland, Mark A.; Faber, Derrek M.; Deng, Zhiqun; Johnson, Gary E.; Hughes, James S.; Zimmerman, Shon A.; Monter, Tyrell J.; Cushing, Aaron W.; Wilberding, Matthew C.; Durham, Robin E.; Townsend, R. L.; Skalski, J. R.; Buchanan, Rebecca A.; Kim, Jina; Fischer, Eric S.; Meyer, Matthew M.; McComas, Roy L.; Everett, Jason

    2009-12-28

    This report describes a 2008 acoustic telemetry survival study conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the Portland District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The study estimated the survival of juvenile Chinook salmon and steelhead passing Bonneville Dam (BON) and its spillway. Of particular interest was the relative survival of smolts detected passing through end spill bays 1-3 and 16-18, which had deep flow deflectors immediately downstream of spill gates, versus survival of smolts passing middle spill bays 4-15, which had shallow flow deflectors.

  10. Effect of Coating Method on the Survival Rate of L. plantarum for Chicken Feed

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Sang-Yoon; Jo, Yeon-Ji; Choi, Mi-Jung; Lee, Boo-Yong; Han, Jong-Kwon; Lim, Jae Kag

    2014-01-01

    This study was designed to find the most suitable method and wall material for microencapsulation of the Lactobacillus plantarum to maintain cell viability in different environmental conditions. To improve the stability of L. plantarum, we developed an encapsulation system of L. plantarum, using water-in-oil emulsion system. For the encapsulation of L. plantarum, corn starch and glyceryl monostearate were selected to form gel beads. Then 10% (w/v) of starch was gelatinized by autoclaving to transit gel state, and cooled down at 60ºC and mixed with L. plantarum to encapsulate it. The encapsulated L. plantarum was tested for the tolerance of acidic conditions at different temperatures to investigate the encapsulation ability. The study indicated that the survival rate of the microencapsulated cells in starch matrix was significantly higher than that of free cells in low pH conditions with relatively higher temperature. The results showed that corn starch as a wall material and glycerol monostearate as a gelling agent in encapsulation could play a role in the viability of lactic acid bacteria in extreme conditions. Using the current study, it would be possible to formulate a new water-in-oil system as applied in the protection of L. plantarum from the gastric conditions for the encapsulation system used in chicken feed industry. PMID:26760943

  11. Effect of Coating Method on the Survival Rate of L. plantarum for Chicken Feed.

    PubMed

    Lee, Sang-Yoon; Jo, Yeon-Ji; Choi, Mi-Jung; Lee, Boo-Yong; Han, Jong-Kwon; Lim, Jae Kag; Oh, Jae-Wook

    2014-01-01

    This study was designed to find the most suitable method and wall material for microencapsulation of the Lactobacillus plantarum to maintain cell viability in different environmental conditions. To improve the stability of L. plantarum, we developed an encapsulation system of L. plantarum, using water-in-oil emulsion system. For the encapsulation of L. plantarum, corn starch and glyceryl monostearate were selected to form gel beads. Then 10% (w/v) of starch was gelatinized by autoclaving to transit gel state, and cooled down at 60ºC and mixed with L. plantarum to encapsulate it. The encapsulated L. plantarum was tested for the tolerance of acidic conditions at different temperatures to investigate the encapsulation ability. The study indicated that the survival rate of the microencapsulated cells in starch matrix was significantly higher than that of free cells in low pH conditions with relatively higher temperature. The results showed that corn starch as a wall material and glycerol monostearate as a gelling agent in encapsulation could play a role in the viability of lactic acid bacteria in extreme conditions. Using the current study, it would be possible to formulate a new water-in-oil system as applied in the protection of L. plantarum from the gastric conditions for the encapsulation system used in chicken feed industry.

  12. Relation of prenatal diagnosis with one-year survival rate for infants with congenital heart disease.

    PubMed

    Wright, Lydia K; Ehrlich, Alexandra; Stauffer, Nanci; Samai, Cyrus; Kogon, Brian; Oster, Matthew E

    2014-03-15

    Prenatal diagnosis of congenital heart defects (CHDs) is increasingly common, but it is still unclear whether it translates to improved postoperative outcomes. We performed a retrospective cohort study of all infants (aged <1 year) who underwent surgery for CHDs from 2006 to 2011 at a single institution. Primary outcomes were in-hospital and 1-year mortality rates. Secondary outcomes were readmission within 30 days of discharge, postoperative length of intensive care unit and hospital stay, unplanned reoperation, and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use. We used chi-square analyses, Wilcoxon rank-sum tests, Kaplan-Meier survival curves, and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to compare outcomes. Of the 1,642 patients with CHDs, 539 (33%) were diagnosed prenatally. Patients with prenatal diagnoses were of a younger age and less weight at the time of surgery, had greater Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery scores, and were more likely to be white, to have an identified syndrome, or to be born at term. Compared with those diagnosed postnatally, those diagnosed prenatally had a significantly higher unadjusted 1-year mortality rate (11% vs 5.5%, respectively, p = 0.03). Controlling for weight, surgical severity, race, age at surgery, prematurity, and the presence or absence of genetic syndrome, patients with prenatal diagnoses had significantly greater mortality at 1 year (adjusted hazard ratio 1.5, p = 0.03), as well as significantly longer intensive care unit and hospital stays. Infants with CHDs diagnosed prenatally had worse outcomes compared with those diagnosed postnatally. Prenatal diagnosis likely captures patients with more severe phenotypes within given surgical risk categories and even within diagnoses and thus may be an important prognostic factor when counseling families.

  13. Long-term analysis of survival, fertility, and population growth rate of black bears in North Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brongo, L.L.; Mitchell, M.S.; Grand, J.B.

    2005-01-01

    We estimated survival, fertility, and realized and asymptotic population growth rates from 1981 to 2002 for a protected population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in the southern Appalachian Mountains. We used Akaike's information criterion to assess the time interval for averaging observations that was best for estimating vital rates for our study, given our yearly sample sizes. The temporal symmetry approach allowed us to directly assess population growth and to address all losses and gains to the population by using only capture data, offering an alternative to the logistically intensive collection of reproductive data. Models that averaged survival and fertility across 5- and 7-year time intervals were best supported by our data. Studies of black bear populations with annual sample sizes similar to ours should be of at least 5 years in duration to estimate vital rates reliably, and at least 10 years in duration to evaluate changes in population growth rate (??). We also hypothesized that survival would not track changes in ?? because ?? is influenced by both survival and fertility. The 5-year model supported our hypothesis, but the 7-year model did not. Where long-term dynamics of large, relatively stable bear populations are of interest, monitoring survival is likely to be sufficient for evaluating trends in ??. For rapidly changing, small populations, however, failure to incorporate fertility into assessments of ?? could be misleading. ?? 2005 American Society of Mammalogists.

  14. Early marine growth in relation to marine-stage survival rates for Alaska sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Farley, Edward V.; Murphy, J.M.; Adkison, Milo D.; Eisner, L.B.; Helle, J.H.; Moss, J.H.; Nielsen, Jennifer

    2007-01-01

    We tested the hypothesis that larger juvenile sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in Bristol Bay, Alaska, have higher marine-stage survival rates than smaller juvenile salmon. We used scales from returning adults (33 years of data) and trawl samples of juveniles (n = 3572) collected along the eastern Bering Sea shelf during August through September 2000-02. The size of juvenile sockeye salmon mirrored indices of their marine-stage survival rate (e.g., smaller fish had lower indices of marine-stage survival rate). However, there was no relationship between the size of sockeye salmon after their first year at sea, as estimated from archived scales, and brood-year survival size was relatively uniform over the time series, possibly indicating size-selective mortality on smaller individuals during their marine residence. Variation in size, relative abundance, and marine-stage survival rate of juvenile sockeye salmon is likely related to ocean conditions affecting their early marine migratory pathways along the eastern Bering Sea shelf.

  15. Behavioral Hypervolumes of Predator Groups and Predator-Predator Interactions Shape Prey Survival Rates and Selection on Prey Behavior.

    PubMed

    Pruitt, Jonathan N; Howell, Kimberly A; Gladney, Shaniqua J; Yang, Yusan; Lichtenstein, James L L; Spicer, Michelle Elise; Echeverri, Sebastian A; Pinter-Wollman, Noa

    2017-03-01

    Predator-prey interactions often vary on the basis of the traits of the individual predators and prey involved. Here we examine whether the multidimensional behavioral diversity of predator groups shapes prey mortality rates and selection on prey behavior. We ran individual sea stars (Pisaster ochraceus) through three behavioral assays to characterize individuals' behavioral phenotype along three axes. We then created groups that varied in the volume of behavioral space that they occupied. We further manipulated the ability of predators to interact with one another physically via the addition of barriers. Prey snails (Chlorostome funebralis) were also run through an assay to evaluate their predator avoidance behavior before their use in mesocosm experiments. We then subjected pools of prey to predator groups and recorded the number of prey consumed and their behavioral phenotypes. We found that predator-predator interactions changed survival selection on prey traits: when predators were prevented from interacting, more fearful snails had higher survival rates, whereas prey fearfulness had no effect on survival when predators were free to interact. We also found that groups of predators that occupied a larger volume in behavioral trait space consumed 35% more prey snails than homogeneous predator groups. Finally, we found that behavioral hypervolumes were better predictors of prey survival rates than single behavioral traits or other multivariate statistics (i.e., principal component analysis). Taken together, predator-predator interactions and multidimensional behavioral diversity determine prey survival rates and selection on prey traits in this system.

  16. A mathematical proof and example that Bayes's Theorem is fundamental to actuarial estimates of sexual recidivism risk.

    PubMed

    Donaldson, Theodore; Wollert, Richard

    2008-06-01

    Expert witnesses in sexually violent predator (SVP) cases often rely on actuarial instruments to make risk determinations. Many questions surround their use, however. Bayes's Theorem holds much promise for addressing these questions. Some experts nonetheless claim that Bayesian analyses are inadmissible in SVP cases because they are not accepted by the relevant scientific community. This position is illogical because Bayes's Theorem is simply a probabilistic restatement of the way that frequency data are combined to arrive at whatever recidivism rates are paired with each test score in an actuarial table. This article presents a mathematical proof and example validating this assertion. The advantages and implications of a logic model that combines Bayes's Theorem and the null hypothesis are also discussed.

  17. Comparative Survival [Rate] Study (CSS); Design and Analysis, 2002 Technical Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Bouwes, Nick; Petrosky, Charlie; Schaller, Howard

    2002-04-01

    Fisheries agencies and tribes have developed a multi-year program, the Comparative Survival Study (CSS), to obtain information to be used in monitoring and evaluating the impacts of the mitigation measures and actions (e.g., flow augmentation, spill, and transportation) under NMFS' Biological Opinion to recover listed stocks. Through 2001, the CSS has utilized PIT tagged yearling hatchery chinook that were tagged specifically for the CSS and PIT tagged wild chinook from all available marking efforts in the Snake River basin above Lower Granite Dam. We selected hatchery programs that would allow the opportunity to mark sufficient numbers of smolts to give enough returning adult fish that statistically rigorous smolt-to-adult survival rates could be computed. Since the CSS inception, hatchery fish that have consistently been used include spring/summer chinook tagged at McCall, Rapid River, Dworshak, and Lookingglass (Imnaha stock) hatcheries. The CSS has also included a group of spring chinook from Carson Hatchery in the lower Columbia River for planned upstream/downstream comparison. The wild stocks included chinook PIT tagged as parr (summer/fall tagging season) and smolts (spring tagging season) in each major tributary above Lower Granite Dam. Future years will see the CSS add wild and hatchery steelhead in the Snake River basin, hatchery steelhead in the Mid-Columbia River basin, hatchery yearling chinook in the Mid-Columbia River basin, and wild chinook in John Day River in the lower Columbia River. Each PIT (passive integrated transponder) tag has a unique code. The tags are glass encapsulated, 11 mm in length, and implanted into the fish's underbelly by a syringe. All attempts are made to make the PIT tagged fish as representative of their untagged cohorts as possible. At trapping sites, sampling and tagging occur over the entire migration season. At hatcheries, fish to tag are obtained across as wide a set of ponds and raceways as possible to allow effective

  18. Planetary quarantine in the solar system. Survival rates of some terrestrial organisms under simulated space conditions by proton irradiation.

    PubMed

    Koike, J; Oshima, T

    1993-08-01

    We have been studying the survival rates of some species of terrestrial unicellular and multicellular organism (viruses, bacteria, yeasts, fungi, algae, etc.) under simulated interstellar conditions, in connection with planetary quarantine. The interstellar environment in the solar system has been simulated by low temperature, high vacuum (77 K, 4 x 10(-8) torr), and proton irradiation from a Van de Graaff generator. After exposure to a barrage of protons corresponding to about 250 years of irradiation in solar space, tobacco mosaic virus, Bacillus subtilis spores, Staphylococcus aureus, Micrococcus flavus, Aspergillus niger spores, and Clostridium mangenoti spores showed survival rates of 82, 45, 74, 13, 28, and 25%, respectively.

  19. Planetary quarantine in the solar system. Survival rates of some terrestrial organisms under simulated space conditions by proton irradiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koike, J.; Oshima, T.

    We have been studying the survival rates of some species of terrestrial unicellular and multicellular organism (viruses, bacteria, yeasts, fungi, algae, etc.) under simulated interstellar conditions, in connection with planetary quarantine. The interstellar environment in the solar system has been simulated by low temperature, high vacuum (77 K, 4 × 10 -8 torr), and proton irradiation from a Van de Graaff generator. After exposure to a barrage of protons corresponding to about 250 years of irradiation in solar space, tobacco mosaic virus, Bacillus subtilis spores, Staphylococcus aureus, Micrococcus flavus, Aspergillus niger spores, and Clostridium mangenoti spores showed survival rates of 82, 45, 74, 13, 28, and 25%, respectively.

  20. Population ecology of the mallard VIII: Winter distribution patterns and survival rates of winter-banded mallards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, James D.; Hines, James E.

    1987-01-01

    In the present report we address questions about winter distribution patterns and survival rates of North American mallards Anas platyrhynchos. Inferences are based on analyses of banding and recovery data from both winter and preseason banding period. The primary wintering range of the mallard was dividded into 45 minor reference areas and 15 major reference areas which were used to summarize winter banding data. Descriptive tables and figures on the recovery distributions of winter-banded mallards are presented. Using winter recoveries of preseason-banded mallards, we found apparent differences between recovery distribution of young versus adult birds from the same breeding ground reference areas. However, we found no sex-specific differences in winter recovery distribution patterns. Winter recovery distributions of preseason-banded birds also provided evidence that mallards exhibited some degree of year-to-year variation in wintering ground location. The age- and sex-specificity of such variation was tested using winter recoveries of winter-banded birds, and results indicated that subadult (first year) birds were less likely to return to the same wintering grounds the following year than adults. Winter recovery distributions of preseason-banded mallards during 1950-58 differed from distributions in 1966-76. These differences could have resulted from either true distributional shifts or geographic changes in hunting pressure. Survival and recovery rates were estimated from winter banding data. We found no evidence of differences in survival or recovery rates between subadult and adult mallards. Thus, the substantial difference between survival rates of preseason-banded young and adult mallards must result almost entirely from higher mortality of young birds during the approximate period, August-January. Male mallards showed higher survival than females, corroborating inferences based on preseason data. Tests with winter banding and band recovery data indicated

  1. Relationship between prenatal survival rate at 70 days of gestation and morphometric parameters of vagina, uterus and placenta in gilts.

    PubMed

    Vianna, W L; Pinese, M E; de Campos Rosseto, A; Bombonato, P P; Rodrigues, P H M; de Sant'Anna Moretti, A

    2004-12-01

    Swine uterine capacity affects litter size, and it could be used as a selection parameter of reproductive performance. Although there are some controversial results, evidences show that the catheter penetration length is positively correlated with litter size, and it could be used as a tool for predicting selection methods. The aim of this study was to determine whether there is any association between the prenatal survival rate and placental size at 70 days of gestation, the vaginal length [catheter penetration length during artificial insemination (AI)] and the uterine capacity in a homogeneous group of gilts. Sixty-six commercial-line gilts in pre-pubertal phase had their oestrus induced by hormonal treatment [600 UI of Equine Chorionic Gonadtrophin (eCG) i.m. and after a 72-h period 5 mg of luteinizing hormone (LH) i.m.], but only 40 gilts showed cyclicity after induction. The AI catheter penetration length was tested on these 40 gilts at the moment of AI using a calibrated AI catheter. Four gilts returned to oestrus and the other 36 were killed at around day 69 of pregnancy. The uterine length and weight showed a significant and positive correlation with the prenatal survival rate (p <0.05). The catheter penetration length was unable to predict the conceptus survival rate on 70 days of gestation; however, the uterine size influenced the survival rate positively. The mean placental area was positively correlated with the mean placental weight (p <0.0001), and both with the mean foetal weight (p <0.0001 and p <0.001, respectively). The analysis of the results obtained showed that neither did the catheter penetration length measurement during AI, nor the prenatal survival rate on day 70 of pregnancy predict the uterine capacity, but the uterine and placental size had a significant influence on the prenatal survival and foetus weight, respectively.

  2. Apparent Survival Rates of Forest Birds in Eastern Ecuador Revisited: Improvement in Precision but No Change in Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Blake, John G.; Loiselle, Bette A.

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge of survival rates of Neotropical landbirds remains limited, with estimates of apparent survival available from relatively few sites and species. Previously, capture-mark-recapture models were used to estimate apparent survival of 31 species (30 passerines, 1 Trochilidae) from eastern Ecuador based on data collected from 2001 to 2006. Here, estimates are updated with data from 2001-2012 to determine how additional years of data affect estimates; estimates for six additional species are provided. Models assuming constant survival had highest support for 19 of 31 species when based on 12 years of data compared to 27 when based on six; models incorporating effects of transients had the highest support for 12 of 31 species compared to four when based on 12 and six years, respectively. Average apparent survival based on the most highly-supported model (based on model averaging, when appropriate) was 0.59 (± 0.02 SE) across 30 species of passerines when based on 12 years and 0.57 (± 0.02) when based on six. Standard errors of survival estimates based on 12 years were approximately half those based on six years. Of 31 species in both data sets, estimates of apparent survival were somewhat lower for 13, somewhat higher for 17, and remained unchanged for one; confidence intervals for estimates based on six and 12 years of data overlapped for all species. Results indicate that estimates of apparent survival are comparable but more precise when based on longer-term data sets; standard error of the estimates was negatively correlated with numbers of captures (rs = −0.72) and recaptures (rs = −0.93, P<0.001 in both cases). Thus, reasonable estimates of apparent survival may be obtained with relatively few years of data if sample sizes are sufficient. PMID:24312519

  3. Apparent survival rates of forest birds in eastern Ecuador revisited: improvement in precision but no change in estimates.

    PubMed

    Blake, John G; Loiselle, Bette A

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge of survival rates of Neotropical landbirds remains limited, with estimates of apparent survival available from relatively few sites and species. Previously, capture-mark-recapture models were used to estimate apparent survival of 31 species (30 passerines, 1 Trochilidae) from eastern Ecuador based on data collected from 2001 to 2006. Here, estimates are updated with data from 2001-2012 to determine how additional years of data affect estimates; estimates for six additional species are provided. Models assuming constant survival had highest support for 19 of 31 species when based on 12 years of data compared to 27 when based on six; models incorporating effects of transients had the highest support for 12 of 31 species compared to four when based on 12 and six years, respectively. Average apparent survival based on the most highly-supported model (based on model averaging, when appropriate) was 0.59 (± 0.02 SE) across 30 species of passerines when based on 12 years and 0.57 (± 0.02) when based on six. Standard errors of survival estimates based on 12 years were approximately half those based on six years. Of 31 species in both data sets, estimates of apparent survival were somewhat lower for 13, somewhat higher for 17, and remained unchanged for one; confidence intervals for estimates based on six and 12 years of data overlapped for all species. Results indicate that estimates of apparent survival are comparable but more precise when based on longer-term data sets; standard error of the estimates was negatively correlated with numbers of captures (rs  = -0.72) and recaptures (rs  = -0.93, P<0.001 in both cases). Thus, reasonable estimates of apparent survival may be obtained with relatively few years of data if sample sizes are sufficient.

  4. Short implants had lower survival rates in posterior jaws compared to standard implants.

    PubMed

    Stafford, Gary L

    2016-12-01

    Data sourcesPubMed/Medline, Embase and Cochrane Library databases supplemented by searches of the journals; Clinical Implant Dentistry and Related Research, Clinical Oral Implants Research, International Journal of Oral and Maxillofacial Implants, International Journal of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Journal of Clinical Periodontology, Journal of Dentistry, Journal of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Journal of Oral Implantology, Journal of Oral Rehabilitation, Journal of Periodontology, Periodontology 2000.Study selectionRandomised controlled trials (RCTs) and prospective studies with at least ten patients, published in the last ten years that compared short and standard implants and published in English were considered.Data extraction and synthesisA single author abstracted data with checking by a second reviewer. Methodological quality was assessed using the Jadad Scale and the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Risk ratios (RR) were calculated for implant survival rates, complications and prostheses failures and marginal bone loss was evaluated using mean difference (MD).ResultsThirteen studies consisting of ten RCTs and three prospective studies were included. The ten RCTs were considered to be of high quality. Two thousand six hundred and thirty-one implants were placed in 1269 patients (981 short and 1650 standard implants). Thirty-eight short implants failed (3.87%) and 45 standard implants (2.72%). Random effects meta-analysis found no statistically significant difference between standard implants and short implants placed in the posterior regions; RR =1.35 (95% CI; 0.82-2.22: P=0.24). Marginal bone loss was evaluated in nine studies and no differences in marginal bone loss were observed. Complications were reported by seven studies and no significant difference was seen between standard and short implants; RR= 0.54 (95% CI; 0.27-1.09: P = 0.08). There was also no significant difference in prosthesis failures between standard and short implants; RR= 0.96 (95

  5. Adrenalectomy does not improve survival rates of patients with solitary adrenal metastasis from non-small cell lung cancer

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Shao-Hong; Kong, Qing-Lei; Chen, Xue-Xia; He, Jin-Yuan; Qin, Jie; Chen, Zhuang-Gui

    2017-01-01

    Background and purpose Several case reports and studies have suggested that there is an increased survival rate for patients who undergo resection of solitary adrenal metastasis from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study aimed to investigate whether NSCLC patients with solitary adrenal metastasis could gain a higher survival rate after adrenalectomy (ADX) when compared with those patients undergoing nonsurgical treatment, and to investigate the potential prognostic factors. Patients and methods A total of 1,302 NSCLC inpatients’ data from 2001 to 2015 were retrospectively reviewed to identify those with solitary adrenal metastasis. Overall survival for those who underwent both primary resection and ADX was compared to those patients with conservative treatment using the log-rank test. Potential prognostic variables were evaluated with univariate and multivariate analyses including clinical, therapeutic, pathologic, primary and metastatic data. Results A total of 22 NSCLC patients with solitary adrenal metastasis were identified, with an overall median survival of 11 months (95% confidence interval: 9.4–12.6 months) and a 1-year survival rate of 51.4% (95% confidence interval: 29.6%–73.2%). All of the patients had died by 30 months. There was no significant survival difference between patients who underwent primary and metastasis resection (n=10) and those treated conservatively (n=12), (P=0.209). Univariate analysis identified Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) as the significant predictor of survival (P=0.024). Age (<65 vs ≥65 years), sex, pathologic type, mediastinal lymph node stage (N2 vs N0/N1), primary tumor size (<5 vs ≥5 cm), primary location (central vs peripheral), metastatic tumor size (<5 vs ≥5 cm), metastasis laterality, synchronous metastasis, and metastatic field radiotherapy were not identified as potential prognostic factors in relation to survival rate. In multivariate analysis, a stepwise

  6. 78 FR 9890 - DoD Board of Actuaries; Notice of Federal Advisory Committee Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-02-12

    ... of the Secretary DoD Board of Actuaries; Notice of Federal Advisory Committee Meeting AGENCY: DoD... Committee meeting of the DoD Board of Actuaries will take place. DATES: July 18, 2013, from 1:00 p.m. to 5... Human Resource Activity, DoD Office of the Actuary, 4800 Mark Center Drive, STE 06J25-01, Alexandria,...

  7. Influence of Referral Pathway on Ebola Virus Disease Case-Fatality Rate and Effect of Survival Selection Bias

    PubMed Central

    Damkjær, Mads; Lunding, Suzanne; Dornonville de la Cour, Kenn; Young, Alyssa; Brooks, Tim; Sesay, Tom; Salam, Alex P.; Mishra, Sharmistha; Storgaard, Merete

    2017-01-01

    Case-fatality rates in Ebola treatment centers (ETCs) varied widely during the Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa. We assessed the influence of referral pathway on ETC case-fatality rates with a retrospective cohort of 126 patients treated at the Mathaska ETC in Port Loko, Sierra Leone. The patients consisted of persons who had confirmed EVD when transferred to the ETC or who had been diagnosed onsite. The case-fatality rate for transferred patients was 46% versus 67% for patients diagnosed onsite (p = 0.02). The difference was mediated by Ebola viral load at diagnosis, suggesting a survival selection bias. Comparisons of case-fatality rates across ETCs and clinical management strategies should account for potential survival selection bias. PMID:28322693

  8. Sex offender treatment outcome, actuarial risk, and the aging sex offender in Canadian corrections: a long-term follow-up.

    PubMed

    Olver, Mark E; Nicholaichuk, Terry P; Gu, Deqiang; Wong, Stephen C P

    2013-08-01

    The present study is an examination of sex offender treatment outcome in a large national cohort of Canadian Federally incarcerated sex offenders followed up an average of 11.7 years postrelease. A brief actuarial risk scale (BARS), which predicted sexual and violent recidivism, was created for the purposes of the present study to control for risk-related differences between treated and untreated offenders. In total, 732 offenders were identified as having completed (n = 625) or not attended (n = 107) a sex offender treatment program and for whom sufficient information was available to complete the scale. Controlling for risk and individual differences in follow-up time using Cox regression survival analyses and an 8-year fixed follow-up period, treated sex offenders demonstrated significantly lower rates of violent, but not sexual, recidivism. When the treated and untreated groups were stratified by risk level, significant differences were observed only among moderate or high risk offenders. Some significant group differences also emerged on indicators of recidivism severity, with treated offenders demonstrating slower times to sexual reoffense and lower scores on a quantified metric of sexual and violent recidivism severity after controlling for risk. Differences in recidivism base rates between treated and untreated offenders were also larger in magnitude for younger offenders (i.e., under age 50 at release), than for older offenders; however, interactions between age and treatment were not found. The findings are consistent with the risk principle and have possible implications regarding the dynamic nature of sexual violence risk.

  9. How the probability of presentation to a primary care clinician correlates with cancer survival rates: a European survey using vignettes

    PubMed Central

    Harris, Michael; Frey, Peter; Esteva, Magdalena; Gašparović Babić, Svjetlana; Marzo-Castillejo, Mercè; Petek, Davorina; Petek Ster, Marija; Thulesius, Hans

    2017-01-01

    Objective European cancer survival rates vary widely. System factors, including whether or not primary care physicians (PCPs) are gatekeepers, may account for some of these differences. This study explores where patients who may have cancer are likely to present for medical care in different European countries, and how probability of presentation to a primary care clinician correlates with cancer survival rates. Design Seventy-eight PCPs in a range of European countries assessed four vignettes representing patients who might have cancer, and consensus groups agreed how likely those patients were to present to different clinicians in their own countries. These data were compared with national cancer survival rates. Setting A total of 14 countries. Subjects Consensus groups of PCPs. Main outcome measures Probability of initial presentation to a PCP for four clinical vignettes. Results There was no significant correlation between overall national 1-year relative cancer survival rates and the probability of initial presentation to a PCP (r  = −0.16, 95% CI −0.39 to 0.08). Within that there was large variation depending on the type of cancer, with a significantly poorer lung cancer survival in countries where patients were more likely to initially consult a PCP (lung r = −0.57, 95% CI −0.83 to −0.12; ovary: r = −0.13, 95% CI −0.57 to 0.38; breast r = 0.14, 95% CI −0.36 to 0.58; bowel: r = 0.20, 95% CI −0.31 to 0.62). Conclusions There were wide variations in the degree of gatekeeping between countries, with no simple binary model as to whether or not a country has a “PCP-as-gatekeeper” system. While there was case-by-case variation, there was no overall evidence of a link between a higher probability of initial consultation with a PCP and poorer cancer survival. Key points European cancer survival rates vary widely, and health system factors may account for some of these differences. The data from 14 European

  10. A Population-Based Study of the Association of Prenatal Diagnosis With Survival Rate for Infants With Congenital Heart Defects

    PubMed Central

    Oster, Matthew E.; Kim, Christopher H.; Kusano, Aaron S.; Cragan, Janet D.; Dressler, Paul; Hales, Alice R.; Mahle, William T.; Correa, Adolfo

    2015-01-01

    Prenatal diagnosis has been shown to improve preoperative morbidity in newborns with congenital heart defects (CHDs), but there are conflicting data as to the association with mortality. We performed a population-based, retrospective, cohort study of infants with prenatally versus postnatally diagnosed CHDs from 1994 to 2005 as ascertained by the Metropolitan Atlanta Congenital Defects Program. Among infants with isolated CHDs, we estimated 1-year Kaplan-Meier survival probabilities for prenatal versus postnatal diagnosis and estimated Cox proportional hazard ratios adjusted for critical CHD status, gestational age, and maternal race/ethnicity. Of 539,519 live births, 4,348 infants had CHDs (411 prenatally diagnosed). Compared with those with noncritical defects, those with critical defects were more likely to be prenatally diagnosed (58% vs 20%, respectively, p <0.001). Of the 3,146 infants with isolated CHDs, 1-year survival rate was 77% for those prenatally diagnosed (n = 207) versus 96% for those postnatally diagnosed (n = 2,939, p <0.001). Comparing 1-year survival rate among those with noncritical CHDs alone (n = 2,455) showed no difference between prenatal and postnatal diagnoses (96% vs 98%, respectively, p = 0.26), whereas among those with critical CHDs (n = 691), prenatally diagnosed infants had significantly lower survival rate (71% vs 86%, respectively, p <0.001). Among infants with critical CHDs, the adjusted hazard ratio for 1-year mortality rate for those prenatally versus postnatally (reference) diagnosed was 2.51 (95% confidence interval 1.72 to 3.66). In conclusion, prenatal diagnosis is associated with lower 1-year survival rate for infants with isolated critical CHDs but shows no change for those with isolated noncritical CHDs. More severe disease among the critical CHD subtypes diagnosed prenatally might explain these findings. PMID:24472597

  11. The influence of printing parameters on cell survival rate and printability in microextrusion-based 3D cell printing technology.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Yu; Li, Yang; Mao, Shuangshuang; Sun, Wei; Yao, Rui

    2015-11-02

    Three-dimensional (3D) cell printing technology has provided a versatile methodology to fabricate cell-laden tissue-like constructs and in vitro tissue/pathological models for tissue engineering, drug testing and screening applications. However, it still remains a challenge to print bioinks with high viscoelasticity to achieve long-term stable structure and maintain high cell survival rate after printing at the same time. In this study, we systematically investigated the influence of 3D cell printing parameters, i.e. composition and concentration of bioink, holding temperature and holding time, on the printability and cell survival rate in microextrusion-based 3D cell printing technology. Rheological measurements were utilized to characterize the viscoelasticity of gelatin-based bioinks. Results demonstrated that the bioink viscoelasticity was increased when increasing the bioink concentration, increasing holding time and decreasing holding temperature below gelation temperature. The decline of cell survival rate after 3D cell printing process was observed when increasing the viscoelasticity of the gelatin-based bioinks. However, different process parameter combinations would result in the similar rheological characteristics and thus showed similar cell survival rate after 3D bioprinting process. On the other hand, bioink viscoelasticity should also reach a certain point to ensure good printability and shape fidelity. At last, we proposed a protocol for 3D bioprinting of temperature-sensitive gelatin-based hydrogel bioinks with both high cell survival rate and good printability. This research would be useful for biofabrication researchers to adjust the 3D bioprinting process parameters quickly and as a referable template for designing new bioinks.

  12. Esophageal cancer epidemiology in blacks and whites: racial and gender disparities in incidence, mortality, survival rates and histology.

    PubMed Central

    Baquet, Claudia R.; Commiskey, Patricia; Mack, Kelly; Meltzer, Stephen; Mishra, Shiraz I.

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Esophageal cancer rate disparities are pronounced for blacks and whites. This study presents black-white esophageal cancer incidence, mortality, relative survival rates, histology and trends for two five-year time periods--1991-1995 and 1996-2000--and for the time period 1991-2000. METHODS: The study used data from the National Cancer Institute's population-based Surveillance Epidemiology End Results (SEER) program with submission dates 1991-2000. Age-adjusted incidence, mortality, relative survival rates and histology for esophageal carcinoma were calculated for nine SEER cancer registries for 1991-2000. Rates were analyzed by race and gender for changes over specified time periods. RESULTS: Esophageal cancer age-adjusted incidence of blacks was about twice that of whites (8.63 vs. 4.39/100,000, p < 0.05). Age-adjusted mortality for blacks, although showing a declining trend, was nearly twice that of whites (7.79 vs. 3.96, p < 0.05). Although survival was poor for all groups, it was significantly poorer in blacks than in whites. Squamous cell carcinoma was more commonly diagnosed in blacks and white females, whereas adenocarcinoma was more common among white males (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Racial disparities in esophageal cancer incidence, mortality, survival and histology exist. Survival rates from this disease have not significantly improved over the decade. These data support the need for advances in prevention, early detection biomarker research and research on new, more effective treatment modalities for this disease. Images Figure 1 PMID:16334494

  13. Reproductive effort accelerates actuarial senescence in wild birds: an experimental study.

    PubMed

    Boonekamp, Jelle J; Salomons, Martijn; Bouwhuis, Sandra; Dijkstra, Cor; Verhulst, Simon

    2014-05-01

    Optimality theories of ageing predict that the balance between reproductive effort and somatic maintenance determines the rate of ageing. Laboratory studies find that increased reproductive effort shortens lifespan, but through increased short-term mortality rather than ageing. In contrast, high fecundity in early life is associated with accelerated senescence in free-living vertebrates, but these studies are non-experimental. We performed lifelong brood size manipulation in free-living jackdaws. Actuarial senescence--the increase in mortality rate with age--was threefold higher in birds rearing enlarged- compared to reduced broods, confirming a key prediction of the optimality theory of ageing. Our findings contrast with the results of single-year brood size manipulation studies carried out in many species, in which there was no overall discernible manipulation effect on mortality. We suggest that our and previous findings are in agreement with predictions based on the reliability theory of ageing and propose further tests of this proposition.

  14. Long-term survival rates of gravity-assisted, adjustable differential pressure valves in infants with hydrocephalus.

    PubMed

    Gebert, Anna-Felicitas; Schulz, Matthias; Schwarz, Karin; Thomale, Ulrich-Wilhelm

    2016-05-01

    OBJECTIVE The use of adjustable differential pressure valves with gravity-assisted units in shunt therapy of children with hydrocephalus was reported to be feasible and promising as a way to avoid chronic overdrainage. In this single-center study, the authors' experiences in infants, who have higher rates of shunt complications, are presented. METHODS All data were collected from a cohort of infants (93 patients [37 girls and 56 boys], less than 1 year of age [mean age 4.1 ± 3.1 months]) who received their first adjustable pressure hydrocephalus shunt as either a primary or secondary implant between May 2007 and April 2012. Rates of valve and shunt failure were recorded for a total of 85 months until the end of the observation period in May 2014. RESULTS During a follow-up of 54.2 ± 15.9 months (range 26-85 months), the Kaplan-Meier rate of shunt survival was 69.2% at 1 year and 34.1% at 85 months; the Kaplan-Meier rate of valve survival was 77.8% at 1 year and 56% at 85 months. Survival rates of the shunt were significantly inferior if the patients had previous shunt surgery. During follow-up, 44 valves were exchanged in cases of infection (n = 19), occlusion (n = 14), dysfunction of the adjustment unit (n = 10), or to change the gravitational unit (n = 1). CONCLUSIONS Although a higher shunt complication rate is observed in infant populations compared with older children, reasonable survival rates demonstrate the feasibility of using this sophisticated valve technology. The gravitational unit of this valve is well tolerated and its adjustability offers the flexible application of opening pressure in an unpredictable cohort of patients. This may adequately address overdrainage-related complications from early in treatment.

  15. Population projections for AIDS using an actuarial model.

    PubMed

    Wilkie, A D

    1989-09-05

    This paper gives details of a model for forecasting AIDS, developed for actuarial purposes, but used also for population projections. The model is only appropriate for homosexual transmission, but it is age-specific, and it allows variation in the transition intensities by age, duration in certain states and calendar year. The differential equations controlling transitions between states are defined, the method of numerical solution is outlined, and the parameters used in five different Bases of projection are given in detail. Numerical results for the population of England and Wales are shown.

  16. Actuarial risk assessment models: a review of critical issues related to violence and sex-offender recidivism assessments.

    PubMed

    Sreenivasan, S; Kirkish, P; Garrick, T; Weinberger, L E; Phenix, A

    2000-01-01

    Risk assessment in the area of identification of violence has been dichotomized by several prominent researchers as the "clinical approach" versus the "actuarial method". The proponents of the actuarial approach argue for actuarially derived decisions to replace existing clinical practice. The actuarial method requires no clinical input, just a translation of the relevant material from the records to calculate the risk score. A risk appraisal approach based upon a sole actuarial method raises several questions: those of public safety, peer-accepted standards of practice, liability issues, and concordance with evidence-based medicine practice. We conclude that the sole actuarial approach fails to satisfy these critical issues.

  17. High rates of long-term survival of deep-sea infauna in the laboratory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weinberg, James R.

    1990-08-01

    Living bivalves ( Nucula, Thyasira), a gastropod ( Frigidoalvania brychia) and a calcareous foraminiferan ( Laticarinina pauperata), from 775 m depth in the northwest Atlantic, were maintained in the laboratory for 772 days to measure their survival. The organisms, <4 mm in size, were maintained at 1 atm and at 5°C in cups containing sediment and seawater. Over the 772 day period, 46% of all bivalves and one of two gastropods survived. Minimum estimates for survival of L. pauperata in six containers ranged from 0 to 67% for a 1-2 year period. This study demonstrates that it is feasible to maintain continental slope infauna in the laboratory for long periods of time. Such organisms could be used in experiments that examine their mobility, responses to different sediments and foods, and sizes and shapes of biogenic structures produced in sediments.

  18. Precise calculation of a bond percolation transition and survival rates of nodes in a complex network.

    PubMed

    Kawamoto, Hirokazu; Takayasu, Hideki; Jensen, Henrik Jeldtoft; Takayasu, Misako

    2015-01-01

    Through precise numerical analysis, we reveal a new type of universal loopless percolation transition in randomly removed complex networks. As an example of a real-world network, we apply our analysis to a business relation network consisting of approximately 3,000,000 links among 300,000 firms and observe the transition with critical exponents close to the mean-field values taking into account the finite size effect. We focus on the largest cluster at the critical point, and introduce survival probability as a new measure characterizing the robustness of each node. We also discuss the relation between survival probability and k-shell decomposition.

  19. A comparison of injectable fluorescent marks in two genera of darters: Effects on survival and retention rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roberts, J.H.; Angermeier, P.L.

    2004-01-01

    Visible implant elastomer (VIE) and injectable photonic dye (IPD), two types of injectable fluorescent marks, have shown promise in previous applications in a variety of fishes but have not been extensively tested on darters. We marked a species from each of two genera of darters, Percina and Etheostoma, in a laboratory experiment to determine the influence of VIE and IPD marks on survival and the influences of mark type, location, and color on mark retention. Short-term (???80-d) survival was similar between marked and control specimens for both marks in both species. Over the long term (200-240 d), however, the survival rate for IPD-marked Roanoke darters P. roanoka was significantly lower than that for controls (50% versus 80%), whereas VIE-marked Roanoke darters had a survival rate (88%) similar to that of controls. Long-term survival of riverweed darters E. podostemone did not differ among groups. In Roanoke darters, the mark retention rate for IPD was significantly lower than that for VIE by day 80 of the experiment (80% versus 94%), and ventral IPD marks were retained with greater frequency than were dorsal IPD marks. In riverweed darters, retention was similar for VIE and IPD (79% versus 83%) in all body locations through day 240. In both species, yellow IPD marks exhibited higher retention rates than did green IPD marks, whereas the reverse was true for yellow and green VIE marks. Overall, VIE was a superior mark in the Percina representative but performed similarly to IPD in Etheostoma. Because of interspecific and intraspecific variability in mark performance, we recommend a pilot study before initiating field use of injectable marks in untested species.

  20. Smolt Monitoring Program Comparative Survival Rate Study (CSS); Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, Annual Report 2001-2002.

    SciTech Connect

    Jonasson, Brian; Carmichael, Richard

    2003-05-01

    We PIT-tagged juvenile spring chinook salmon reared at Lookingglass Hatchery in October 2001 as part of the Comparative Survival Rate Study (CSS) for migratory year (MY) 2002. We tagged 20,998 Imnaha stock spring chinook salmon, and after mortality and tag loss, we allowed the remaining 20,920 fish to leave the acclimation pond at our Imnaha River satellite facility beginning 21 March 2002 to begin their seaward migration. The fish remaining in the pond were forced out on 17 April 2002. We tagged 20,973 Catherine Creek stock captive brood progeny spring chinook salmon, and after mortality and tag loss, we allowed the remaining 20,796 fish to leave the acclimation ponds at our Catherine Creek satellite facility beginning 1 April 2001 to begin their seaward migration. The fish remaining in the ponds were forced out on 15 April 2001. We estimated survival rates, from release to Lower Granite Dam in MY 2002, for three stocks of hatchery spring chinook salmon tagged at Lookingglass Hatchery to determine their relative migration performance. Imnaha River stock and Lostine River stock survival rates were similar and were higher than the survival rate of Catherine Creek stock. We PIT-tagged 20,950 BY 2001 Imnaha River stock and 20,820 BY 2001 Catherine Creek stock captive brood progeny in October 2002 as part of the CSS for MY 2003. At the time the fish were transferred from Lookingglass Hatchery to the acclimation site, the rates of mortality and tag loss for Imnaha River stock were 0.14% and 0.06%, respectively. Catherine Creek stock, during the same period, had rates of mortality and tag loss of 0.57% and 0.31%, respectively. There was slightly elevated mortality, primarily from BKD, in one raceway of Catherine Creek stock at Lookingglass Hatchery for BY 2001.

  1. Comparison of in vivo and in vitro survival and fecundity rates of the poultry red mite, Dermanyssus gallinae.

    PubMed

    Arkle, S; George, D R; Guy, J H; Sparagano, O A E

    2010-04-01

    To assist in the testing of possible antigens in developing a vaccine against the poultry red mite (Dermanyssus gallinae De Geer), a rapid and reliable in vitro screening method is critical. This short paper describes how D. gallinae survival and fecundity rates in an in vivo feeding device compared to that of mites fed using an in vitro method. Results showed that survival of fed D. gallinae females and mites overall was greater in vitro, although there was no difference between male survival and fecundity between in vivo and in vitro designs. The in vitro feeding device described therefore has the potential to provide reliable results, comparable to those obtained by in vivo testing, to allow for the rapid screening of D. gallinae antigens.

  2. Understanding the Patterns and Causes of Variability in Distribution, Habitat Use, Abundance, Survival and Reproductive Rates of Three Species of Cetacean in the Alboran Sea, Western Mediterranean

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-30

    Distribution, Habitat Use, Abundance, Survival and Reproductive Rates of Three Species of Cetacean in the Alborán Sea, Western Mediterranean...changes in distribution, habitat use, abundance, survival and reproductive rates of three species of cetacean in the Alborán Sea (western Mediterranean...to environmental change, particularly climate change, focusing on distribution, abundance and estimated reproductive and survival rates. The two

  3. Stable and fluctuating temperature effects on the development rate and survival of two malaria vectors, Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles funestus

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Understanding the biology of malaria vector mosquitoes is crucial to understanding many aspects of the disease, including control and future outcomes. The development rates and survival of two Afrotropical malaria vectors, Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles funestus, are investigated here under conditions of constant and fluctuating temperatures. These data can provide a good starting point for modelling population level consequences of temperature change associated with climate change. For comparative purposes, these data were considered explicitly in the context of those available for the third African malaria vector, Anopheles gambiae. Methods Twenty five replicates of 20–30 eggs were placed at nine constant and two fluctuating temperatures for development rate experiments and survival estimates. Various developmental parameters were estimated from the data, using standard approaches. Results Lower development threshold (LDT) for both species was estimated at 13-14°C. Anopheles arabiensis developed consistently faster than An. funestus. Optimum temperature (Topt) and development rate at this temperature (μmax) differed significantly between species for overall development and larval development. However, Topt and μmax for pupal development did not differ significantly between species. Development rate and survival of An. funestus was negatively influenced by fluctuating temperatures. By contrast, development rate of An. arabiensis at fluctuating temperatures either did not differ from constant temperatures or was significantly faster. Survival of this species declined by c. 10% at the 15°C to 35°C fluctuating temperature regime, but was not significantly different between the constant 25°C and the fluctuating 20°C to 30°C treatment. By comparison, previous data for An. gambiae indicated fastest development at a constant temperature of 28°C and highest survival at 24°C. Conclusions The three most important African malaria vectors all differ

  4. Hazard regression model and cure rate model in colon cancer relative survival trends: are they telling the same story?

    PubMed

    Bejan-Angoulvant, Theodora; Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Bossard, Nadine; Belot, Aurelien; Jooste, Valérie; Launoy, Guy; Remontet, Laurent

    2008-01-01

    Hazard regression models and cure rate models can be advantageously used in cancer relative survival analysis. We explored the advantages and limits of these two models in colon cancer and focused on the prognostic impact of the year of diagnosis on survival according to the TNM stage at diagnosis. The analysis concerned 9,998 patients from three French registries. In the hazard regression model, the baseline excess death hazard and the time-dependent effects of covariates were modelled using regression splines. The cure rate model estimated the proportion of 'cured' patients and the excess death hazard in 'non-cured' patients. The effects of year of diagnosis on these parameters were estimated for each TNM cancer stage. With the hazard regression model, the excess death hazard decreased significantly with more recent years of diagnoses (hazard ratio, HR 0.97 in stage III and 0.98 in stage IV, P < 0.001). In these advanced stages, this favourable effect was limited to the first years of follow-up. With the cure rate model, recent years of diagnoses were significantly associated with longer survivals in 'non-cured' patients with advanced stages (HR 0.95 in stage III and 0.97 in stage IV, P < 0.001) but had no significant effect on cure (odds ratio, OR 0.99 in stages III and IV, P > 0.5). The two models were complementary and concordant in estimating colon cancer survival and the effects of covariates. They provided two different points of view of the same phenomenon: recent years of diagnosis had a favourable effect on survival, but not on cure.

  5. Limnology of nine small lakes, Matanuska-Susitna Borough, Alaska, and the survival and growth rates of rainbow trout

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Woods, P.F.

    1985-01-01

    The survival and growth rates of rainbow trout (Salmo gairdnieri) were concurrently measured with selected limnological characteristics in nine small (surface area < 25 sq hectometers) lakes in the Matanuska-Susitna Borough. The project goal was to develop empirical models for predicting rainbow trout growth rates from the following variables: total phosphorus concentration, chlorophyll a concentration, Secchi disc transparency, or the morphoedaphic index--a means of characterizing potential biological productivity. No suitable model could be developed from the data collected during 1982 and 1983. The lack of significant correlation was attributed in part to the wide variation in survival of rainbow trout. Winterkills, caused by severe depletion of dissolved oxygen, were suspected in four of the lakes. Varied levels of fishing pressure and competition with threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) also influenced survival of rainbow trout but their effects were overshadowed by winterkill. Predictive capability was also reduced because of inconsistencies in rankings generated by each of the four limnological variables chosen as indicators of potential biological productivity. A lake ranked low in productivity by one variable was commonly ranked high in productivity by another variable. The survivability of rainbow trout stocked in lakes such as these nine may be a more important indicator of potential biomass production than are indicators of lake fertility. Assessments of a lake 's susceptibility to winterkill and the degree of competition with threespine stickleback are suggested as important topics for additional research. (Author 's abstract)

  6. Actual and actuarial probabilities of competing risks: apples and lemons.

    PubMed

    Grunkemeier, Gary L; Jin, Ruyun; Eijkemans, Marinus J C; Takkenberg, Johanna J M

    2007-05-01

    The probability of a type of failure that is not inevitable, but can be precluded by other events such as death, is given by the cumulative incidence function. In cardiac research articles, it has become known as the actual probability, in contrast to the actuarial methods of estimation, usually implemented by the Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimate. Unlike cumulative incidence, KM attempts to predict what the latent failure probability would be if death were eliminated. To do this, the KM method assumes that the risk of dying and the risk of failure are independent. But this assumption is not true for many cardiac applications in which the risks of failure and death are negatively correlated (ie, patients with a higher risk of dying have a lower risk of failure, and patients with a lower risk of death have a higher risk of failure, which is a condition called informative censoring). Recent editorials in two cardiac journals have promoted the use of the KM method (actuarial estimate) for competing risk events (specifically for heart valve performance) and criticized the use of the cumulative incidence (actual) estimates. This report has two aims: to explain the difference between these two estimates and to show why the KM is generally not appropriate. In the process we will rely on alternative representations of the KM estimator (using redistribution to the right and inverse probability weighting) to explain the difference between the two estimates and to show how it may be possible to adjust KM to overcome the informative censoring.

  7. An actuarial approach to retrofit savings in buildings

    SciTech Connect

    Subbarao, Krishnappa; Etingov, Pavel V.; Reddy, T. A.

    2014-01-01

    An actuarial method has been developed for determining energy savings from retrofits from energy use data for a number of buildings. This method should be contrasted with the traditional method of using pre- and post-retrofit data on the same building. This method supports the U.S. Department of Energy Building Performance Database of real building performance data and related tools that enable engineering and financial practitioners to evaluate retrofits. The actuarial approach derives, from the database, probability density functions (PDFs) for energy savings from retrofits by creating peer groups for the user’s pre post buildings. From the energy use distribution of the two groups, the savings PDF is derived. This provides the basis for engineering analysis as well as financial risk analysis leading to investment decisions. Several technical issues are addressed: The savings PDF is obtained from the pre- and post-PDF through a convolution. Smoothing using kernel density estimation is applied to make the PDF more realistic. The low data density problem can be mitigated through a neighborhood methodology. Correlations between pre and post buildings are addressed to improve the savings PDF. Sample size effects are addressed through the Kolmogorov--Smirnov tests and quantile-quantile plots.

  8. Risk of violence by psychiatric patients: beyond the "actuarial versus clinical" assessment debate.

    PubMed

    Buchanan, Alec

    2008-02-01

    Recently adopted statistical approaches improve researchers' ability to describe what is, and what is not, possible in the prediction of violence by psychiatric patients. At the base rates of violence routinely encountered in outpatient settings, current assessment methods would require hospital admission of large numbers of patients who are potential offenders in order to prevent the actual offending of a few. Suggestions that substantially greater accuracy is possible for short-term predictions, for particular symptom clusters, and for particular offenses have yet to be tested and confirmed. Further research may improve this state of affairs, for instance, by concentrating on particular patient groups. There are reasons to suspect that any improvement will be limited. Clinical practice, however, is likely to continue to require the assessment of a patient's potential for acting violently. Future research should aid such assessments by clarifying the mechanisms by which risk factors correlate with violence and by establishing the clinical usefulness of actuarial scales.

  9. 76 FR 17762 - Regulations Governing the Performance of Actuarial Services Under the Employee Retirement Income...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-03-31

    ... enrolled actuary who wishes to return to active status from inactive status that depends on how long the... inactive status to demonstrate their return to active practice with more recent experience. It can be... build up, or return to, an active independent practice. For such actuaries, the Joint Board...

  10. A Comparison of Logistic Regression, Neural Networks, and Classification Trees Predicting Success of Actuarial Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schumacher, Phyllis; Olinsky, Alan; Quinn, John; Smith, Richard

    2010-01-01

    The authors extended previous research by 2 of the authors who conducted a study designed to predict the successful completion of students enrolled in an actuarial program. They used logistic regression to determine the probability of an actuarial student graduating in the major or dropping out. They compared the results of this study with those…

  11. Risk Assessment in Child Protective Services: Consensus and Actuarial Model Reliability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baird, Christopher; Wagner, Dennis; Healy, Theresa; Johnson, Kristen

    1999-01-01

    Compared reliability of three widely used child protective service risk-assessment models (one actuarial, two consensus based). Found that, although no system approached 100% interrater reliability, raters employing the actuarial model made consistent estimates of risk for a high percentage of cases they assessed. Interrater reliability for the…

  12. Is More Better? Combining Actuarial Risk Scales to Predict Recidivism among Adult Sex Offenders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seto, Michael C.

    2005-01-01

    The present study was conducted to determine whether combining the results of multiple actuarial risk scales increases accuracy in predicting sex offender recidivism. Multiple methods of combining 4 validated actuarial risk scales--the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, the Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual…

  13. An analysis of possible applications of fuzzy set theory to the actuarial credibility theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ostaszewski, Krzysztof; Karwowski, Waldemar

    1992-01-01

    In this work, we review the basic concepts of actuarial credibility theory from the point of view of introducing applications of the fuzzy set-theoretic method. We show how the concept of actuarial credibility can be modeled through the fuzzy set membership functions and how fuzzy set methods, especially fuzzy pattern recognition, can provide an alternative tool for estimating credibility.

  14. Controls on Arctic sea ice from first-year and multi-year survival rates

    SciTech Connect

    Hunke, Jes

    2009-01-01

    The recent decrease in Arctic sea ice cover has transpired with a significant loss of multi year ice. The transition to an Arctic that is populated by thinner first year sea ice has important implications for future trends in area and volume. Here we develop a reduced model for Arctic sea ice with which we investigate how the survivability of first year and multi year ice control the mean state, variability, and trends in ice area and volume.

  15. Effect of silver nanoparticles on the metabolic rate, hematological response, and survival of juvenile white shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei.

    PubMed

    Juarez-Moreno, Karla; Mejía-Ruiz, Claudio Humberto; Díaz, Fernando; Reyna-Verdugo, Horacio; Re, Ana Denisse; Vazquez-Felix, Edgar F; Sánchez-Castrejón, Edna; Mota-Morales, Josué D; Pestryakov, Alexey; Bogdanchikova, Nina

    2017-02-01

    White spot syndrome virus (WSSV) is highly lethal and contagious in shrimps; its outbreaks causes an economic crisis for aquaculture. Several attempts have been made to treat this disease; however, to date, there is no effective cure. Because of their antimicrobial activities, silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) are the most studied nanomaterial. Although the antiviral properties of AgNPs have been studied, their antiviral effect against viral infection in aquaculture has not been reported. The AgNPs tested herein are coated with polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) and possess multiple international certifications for their use in veterinary and human applications. The aim of this work was to evaluate the survival rate of juvenile white shrimps (Litopenaeus vannamei) after the intramuscular administration of AgNPs. For this, different concentrations of metallic AgNPs and PVP alone were injected into the organisms. After 96 h of administration, shrimp survival was more than 90% for all treatments. The oxygen consumption routine rate and total hemocyte count remained unaltered after AgNP injection, reflecting no stress caused. We evaluated whether AgNPs had an antiviral effect in shrimps infected with WSSV. The results revealed that the survival rate of WSSV-infected shrimps after AgNP administration was 80%, whereas the survival rate of untreated organisms was only 10% 96 h after infection. These results open up the possibility to explore the potential use of AgNPs as antiviral agents for the treatment of diseases in aquaculture organisms, particularly the WSSV in shrimp culture.

  16. Correlation of Survival Rates of Anopheles dirus A (Diptera: Culicidae) with Different Infection Densities of Plasmodium cynomolgi

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-01-01

    Jones (2), and Molineaux (3) assumed that the longevity and daily survival rates of infected mosquitos are unaffected by malarial parasites. However...significantly higher for infected than for non-infected mosquitos . Also, Hacker (5) reported a significant reduction in the fecundity of mosquitos infected... longevity * Fig. 1. Schematic representation of the events for each replicate of mosquitos . sequence of a 5% solution of multivitamin syrup for the

  17. Effects of Cryptocaryon irritans infection on the survival, feeding, respiratory rate and ionic regulation of the marbled rockfish Sebastiscus marmoratus.

    PubMed

    Yin, Fei; Gong, Qiyang; Li, Yanwei; Dan, Xueming; Sun, Peng; Gao, Quanxin; Shi, Zhaohong; Peng, Shiming; Li, Anxing

    2014-02-01

    To clarify the effects of a Cryptocaryon irritans infection on the physiological functions of the marbled rockfish Sebastiscus marmoratus, this study utilized C. irritans at concentrations of 2500; 5000; 7500; 10,000; 20,000; and 30,000 theronts/fish to infect marbled rockfish weighing 45 ± 3 g. The survival rate, food intake, respiratory rate, serum ion concentrations and gill Na+/K+-ATPase activity were determined. With the increase of the infection concentration and the passage of time, the survival rate of the rockfish gradually decreased. The groups infected with more than 5000 theronts/fish had stopped feeding within 4 days. The respiratory rates of the fish in the groups infected with 2500 and 5000 theronts/fish initially increased and then decreased. In contrast, the respiratory rate of the fish in the groups infected with more than 7500 theronts/fish was elevated to levels significantly higher than the control group after 12 h. The Na+/K+-ATPase activity and serum Na+ and Cl- concentrations increased with increasing infection concentration. In conclusion, the physiological functions of the fish infected with low concentrations of C. irritans can be effectively restored, whereas a high concentration infection induced severe stress. The declined food intake and accelerated respiratory rate could be useful for an early warning system as important indicators.

  18. Comparing the survival rate of juvenile Chinook salmon migrating through hydropower systems using injectable and surgical acoustic transmitters

    DOE PAGES

    Deng, Zhiqun D.; Martinez, J. J.; Li, H.; ...

    2017-02-21

    Acoustic telemetry is one of the primary technologies for studying the behavior and survival of fishes throughout the world. The size and performance of the transmitters is still the key limiting factor despite that considerable effort has been expended to understand the biological effects of implantation of acoustic transmitters in yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon. The newly developed injectable transmitter is the first active acoustic tag that can be implanted via injection instead of surgery. It also lasts more than four times longer than the commercially-available transmitters. A two-part field study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the injectablemore » transmitter and its effect on the survival of implanted fish. The injectable transmitter performed well and similarly to the other commercially-available transmitters tested. Snake River subyearling Chinook salmon smolts implanted with the injectable tag had a higher survival probability from release to each of 11 downstream detection arrays than concurrent releases of fish surgically implanted with commercially-available tags. In addition, reach-specific survival estimates were significantly higher for the injectable group in three of the eleven reaches examined. Overall, the injectable group had a 0.263 (SE = 0.017) survival probability over the entire 500 km study area compared to 0.199 (0.012) for the surgically implanted group. The differences in survival may have been caused by warm water temperatures and higher rates of infection experienced by the surgically implanted group due to the presence of sutures acting as an attachment site for pathogens. The reduction in size and ability to implant the new transmitter via injection has further reduced the tag or tagging effect bias associated with studying small fishes. As a result, the information gathered with this new technology is helping minimize the impact of dams on fish, leading to more environmentally sustainable energy systems.« less

  19. Different actuarial risk measures produce different risk rankings for sexual offenders.

    PubMed

    Barbaree, Howard E; Langton, Calvin M; Peacock, Edward J

    2006-10-01

    Percentile ranks were computed for N=262 sex offenders using each of 5 actuarial risk instruments commonly used with adult sex offenders (RRASOR, Static-99, VRAG, SORAG, and MnSOST-R). Mean differences between percentile ranks obtained by different actuarial measures were found to vary inversely with the correlation between the actuarial scores. Following studies of factor analyses of actuarial items, we argue that the discrepancies among actuarial instruments can be substantially accounted for by the way in which the factor Antisocial Behavior and various factors reflecting sexual deviance are represented among the items contained in each instrument. In the discussion, we provide guidance to clinicians in resolving discrepancies between instruments and we discuss implications for future developments in sex offender risk assessment.

  20. Effects of scaffold surface morphology on cell adhesion and survival rate in vitreous cryopreservation of tenocyte-scaffold constructs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhi; Qing, Quan; Chen, Xi; Liu, Cheng-Jun; Luo, Jing-Cong; Hu, Jin-Lian; Qin, Ting-Wu

    2016-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of scaffold surface morphology on cell adhesion and survival rate in vitreous cryopreservation of tenocyte-scaffold constructs. Tenocytes were obtained from tail tendons of rats. Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) was used to fabricate three types of scaffolds with varying surface morphological characteristics, i.e., smooth, micro-grooved, and porous surfaces, respectively. The tenocytes were seeded on the surfaces of the scaffolds to form tenocyte-scaffold constructs. The constructs were cryopreserved in a vitreous cryoprotectant (CPA) with a multi-step protocol. The cell adhesion to scaffolds was observed with electronic scanning microscopy (SEM). The elongation index of the living tenocytes and ratio of live/dead cell number were examined based on a live/dead dual fluorescent staining technique, and the survival rate of tenocytes was studied with flow cytometry (FC). The results showed the shapes of tenocytes varied between the different groups: flat or polygonal (on smooth surface), spindle (on micro-grooved surface), and spindle or ellipse (on porous surface). After thawing, the porous surface got the most living tenocytes and a higher survival rate, suggesting its potential application for vitreous cryopreservation of engineered tendon constructs.

  1. Breast preservation versus mastectomy--recurrence and survival rates of primary breast cancer patients treated at the UFK Bonn.

    PubMed

    Schmolling, J; Maus, B; Rezek, D; Fimmers, R; Höller, T; Schüller, H; Krebs, D

    1997-01-01

    The aim of this retrospective long-term analysis was to evaluate the approach of breast conservation in the light of the results obtained, on the basis of mastectomy, in patients with early breast carcinoma. Additionally, the effect of internal mammary and supraclavicular radiotherapy was analyzed. Therefore, local-regional recurrence (LRR) and survival rates were examined in 411 patients with T1 and T2 stages who had undergone either breast-preserving surgery with radiation or mastectomy. Individual risk factors such as nodal status, lymphangiosis carcinomatosa and age of the patients were evaluated, too. The rate of local-regional recurrence in patients who were treated by mastectomy and conservative surgery was 9.2% and 11.0%, respectively, with relapse happening earlier in the latter group (median of 16 vs. 24 months). Survival rates, however, were not different in the two groups. Tumour stage and nodal status had no influence on the local-regional recurrence rate in either group. In connection with lymphangiosis carcinomatosa, however, the rate increased to 14.5% (mastectomy) and 19.0% (breast-preserving surgery), respectively. Patients < or = 40 years had an even higher risk of LRR, with 20.6% when they underwent mastectomy and 30.8% following breast conservation. Internal mammary and supraclavicular radiotherapy had no positive effect on the survival rates, neither in the mastectomy nor in the breast conservation group. As a conclusion, in more than 60% of all T1 stages. and more than 50% of all T2 stages, the therapeutic concept of breast preservation seems to be justified.

  2. Comparison of drug survival rates for tumor necrosis factor antagonists in rheumatoid arthritis

    PubMed Central

    Martínez-Santana, Virginia; González-Sarmiento, E; Calleja-Hernández, MA; Sánchez-Sánchez, T

    2013-01-01

    Background Persistence of anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an overall marker of treatment success. Objective To assess the survival of anti-TNF treatment and to define the potential predictors of drug discontinuation in RA, in order to verify the adequacy of current practices. Design An observational, descriptive, longitudinal, retrospective study. Setting The Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain. Patients RA patients treated with anti-TNF therapy between January 2011 and January 2012. Measurements Demographic information and therapy assessments were gathered from medical and pharmaceutical records. Data is expressed as means (standard deviations) for quantitative variables and frequency distribution for qualitative variables. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis was used to assess persistence, and Cox multivariate regression models were used to assess potential predictors of treatment discontinuation. Results In total, 126 treatment series with infliximab (n = 53), etanercept (n = 51) or adalimumab (n = 22) were administered to 91 patients. Infliximab has mostly been used as a first-line treatment, but it was the drug with the shortest time until a change of treatment. Significant predictors of drug survival were: age; the anti-TNF agent; and the previous response to an anti-TNF drug. Limitation The small sample size. Conclusion The overall efficacy of anti-TNF drugs diminishes with time, with infliximab having the shortest time until a change of treatment. The management of biologic therapy in patients with RA should be reconsidered in order to achieve disease control with a reduction in costs. PMID:24023512

  3. Sex difference in the survival rate of wild brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) experimentally challenged with bovine tuberculosis.

    PubMed

    Rouco, Carlos; Richardson, Kyle S; Buddle, Bryce M; French, Nigel P; Tompkins, Daniel M

    2016-08-01

    The main wildlife reservoir of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in New Zealand is the introduced brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), with spillover of infection from possums to livestock being regarded as the largest barrier to eradicating TB from the country. Past studies have experimentally challenged possums with Mycobacterium bovis (the causative agent of TB) to quantify infection parameters. However, the challenge models used are invariably non-representative of natural infection due to their resulting in much faster rates, and different clinical patterns of disease progression. We monitored the survival of 16 wild free-living possums, fitted with VHF mortality collars and experimentally challenged with a new model, out to six months post-challenge. The aim was to assess whether the new model does indeed result in an ongoing pathogenesis trajectory that is more reflective of natural TB in possums. The mean survival period of challenged possums (~4.6months) did not differ from that estimated for wild free-living possums with naturally acquired TB. In addition, and unexpectedly, infected males survived on average for five weeks longer than females. This significant difference has not been previously observed in experimental trials with other TB/possum challenge models. If this is reflective of natural disease (as is the survival period produced by the percutaneous challenge model), TB infected males in the wild may be generating more secondary cases of infection than infected females. This insight has important implications for understanding the dynamics of, and managing, the disease in its New Zealand wildlife reservoir.

  4. Survival thresholds and mortality rates in adaptive dynamics: conciliating deterministic and stochastic simulations.

    PubMed

    Perthame, Benoît; Gauduchon, Mathias

    2010-09-01

    Deterministic population models for adaptive dynamics are derived mathematically from individual-centred stochastic models in the limit of large populations. However, it is common that numerical simulations of both models fit poorly and give rather different behaviours in terms of evolution speeds and branching patterns. Stochastic simulations involve extinction phenomenon operating through demographic stochasticity, when the number of individual 'units' is small. Focusing on the class of integro-differential adaptive models, we include a similar notion in the deterministic formulations, a survival threshold, which allows phenotypical traits in the population to vanish when represented by few 'individuals'. Based on numerical simulations, we show that the survival threshold changes drastically the solution; (i) the evolution speed is much slower, (ii) the branching patterns are reduced continuously and (iii) these patterns are comparable to those obtained with stochastic simulations. The rescaled models can also be analysed theoretically. One can recover the concentration phenomena on well-separated Dirac masses through the constrained Hamilton-Jacobi equation in the limit of small mutations and large observation times.

  5. Long-term actuarial survivorship analysis of an interspinous stabilization system.

    PubMed

    Sénégas, Jacques; Vital, Jean-Marc; Pointillart, Vincent; Mangione, Paolo

    2007-08-01

    In 1986, an interspinous dynamic stabilization system (the prototype of the current Wallis implant) was designed to stiffen unstable operated degenerate lumbar segments with a hard interspinous blocker to limit extension and a tension band around the spinous processes to secure the implant and limit flexion. Restoring physiological mechanical conditions to the treated level(s) while preserving some intervertebral mobility was intended to treat low-back pain related to degenerative instability without increasing stress forces in the adjacent segments. The procedure was easily reversible. If low back pain persisted or recurred, the device was removed and stability was achieved using fusion. The intermediate-term results were promising, but the long-term safety and efficacy of this dynamic interspinous stabilization device has not been previously documented. We retrospectively reviewed the hospital files of all the patients (n = 241) who had this dynamic stabilization system implanted between 1987 and 1995, contacting as many as possible to determine the actuarial survivorship of the system. In this manner, 142 of the 241 patients (58.9%) were contacted by telephone. The endpoints used for the survivorship analysis were 'any subsequent lumbar operation' and 'implant removal'. At 14 years follow-up, values of actuarial survivorship with 95% confidence interval were 75.9 +/- 8.3 and 81.3 +/- 6.8% for the endpoints 'any subsequent lumbar operation' and 'implant removal', respectively. There was no difference in survivorship of multiple-level implants with respect to single-level devices. Although the conclusions of the present study must be tempered by the 41% attrition rate, these findings support the long-term safety of this system, and possibly long-term protective action against adjacent-level degeneration by motion preservation. Outcomes at least equivalent to those of fusion were observed without the primary drawbacks of fusion.

  6. Projections of health care expenditures as a share of the GDP: actuarial and macroeconomic approaches.

    PubMed Central

    Warshawsky, M J

    1994-01-01

    STUDY QUESTION. Can the steady increases in health care expenditures as a share of GDP projected by widely cited actuarial models be rationalized by a macroeconomic model with sensible parameters and specification? DATA SOURCES. National Income and Product Accounts, and Social Security and Health Care Financing Administration are the data sources used in parameters estimates. STUDY DESIGN. Health care expenditures as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) are projected using two methodological approaches--actuarial and macroeconomic--and under various assumptions. The general equilibrium macroeconomic approach has the advantage of allowing an investigation of the causes of growth in the health care sector and its consequences for the overall economy. DATA COLLECTION METHODS. Simulations are used. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. Both models unanimously project a continued increase in the ratio of health care expenditures to GDP. Under the most conservative assumptions, that is, robust economic growth, improved demographic trends, or a significant moderation in the rate of health care price inflation, the health care sector will consume more than a quarter of national output by 2065. Under other (perhaps more realistic) assumptions, including a continuation of current trends, both approaches predict that health care expenditures will comprise between a third and a half of national output. In the macroeconomic model, the increasing use of capital goods in the health care sector explains the observed rise in relative prices. Moreover, this "capital deepening" implies that a relatively modest fraction of the labor force is employed in health care and that the rest of the economy is increasingly starved for capital, resulting in a declining standard of living. PMID:8063567

  7. Evaluation of ultrastructure and random effects band recovery models for estimating relationships between survival and harvest rates in exploited populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Otis, D.L.; White, Gary C.

    2004-01-01

    Increased population survival rate after an episode of seasonal exploitation is considered a type of compensatory population response. Lack of an increase is interpreted as evidence that exploitation results in added annual mortality in the population. Despite its importance to management of exploited species, there are limited statistical techniques for comparing relative support for these two alternative models. For exploited bird species, the most common technique is to use a fixed effect, deterministic ultrastructure model incorporated into band recovery models to estimate the relationship between harvest and survival rate. We present a new likelihood-based technique within a framework that assumes that survival and harvest are random effects that covary through time. We conducted a Monte Carlo simulation study under this framework to evaluate the performance of these two techniques. The ultrastructure models performed poorly in all simulated scenarios, due mainly to pathological distributional properties. The random effects estimators and their associated estimators of precision had relatively small negative bias under most scenarios, and profile likelihood intervals achieved nominal coverage. We suggest that the random effects estimation method approach has many advantages compared to the ultrastructure models, and that evaluation of robustness and generalization to more complex population structures are topics for additional research. ?? 2004 Museu de Cie??ncies Naturals.

  8. The Actuarial Society of South Africa AIDS model.

    PubMed

    1997-01-01

    The AIDS Committee of the Actuarial Society of South Africa has developed a demographic model to allow researchers to project the impact of HIV and AIDS in South Africa. The model is available for use as a projection tool rather than to endorse a given projected scenario as being representative. It is very flexible and can be adapted to suit different purposes by anyone with a working knowledge of Microsoft Excel. The need for a model, calibration of the model, the lack of allowance in the model for racial and cultural heterogeneity in the underlying population, and default scenario projections are discussed. The model is available free of charge via E-mail and on the worldwide web at the following respective addresses: awhitelo@oldmutual.com and http://www.und.ac.za/und/eco/eru/eru.htm.

  9. Estimating Survival Rates in Engineering for Community College Transfer Students Using Grades in Calculus and Physics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Laugerman, Marcia; Shelley, Mack; Rover, Diane; Mickelson, Steve

    2015-01-01

    This study uses a unique synthesized set of data for community college students transferring to engineering by combining several cohorts of longitudinal data along with transcript-level data, from both the Community College and the University, to measure success rates in engineering. The success rates are calculated by developing Kaplan-Meier…

  10. Factors affecting sperm recovery rates and survival after centrifugation of equine semen.

    PubMed

    Ferrer, M S; Lyle, S K; Eilts, B E; Eljarrah, A H; Paccamonti, D L

    2012-11-01

    Conventional centrifugation protocols result in important sperm losses during removal of the supernatant. In this study, the effect of centrifugation force (400 or 900 × g), duration (5 or 10 min), and column height (20 or 40 mL; Experiment 1); sperm concentration (25, 50, and 100 × 10(6)/mL; Experiment 2), and centrifugation medium (EZ-Mixin CST [Animal Reproduction Systems, Chino, CA, USA], INRA96 [IMV Technologies, Maple Grove, MN, USA], or VMDZ [Partnar Animal Health, Port Huron, MI, USA]; Experiment 3) on sperm recovery and survival after centrifugation and cooling and storage were evaluated. Overall, sperm survival was not affected by the combination of centrifugation protocol and cooling. Total sperm yield was highest after centrifugation for 10 min at 400 × g in 20-mL columns (95.6 ± 5%, mean ± SD) or 900 × g in 20-mL (99.2 ± 0.8%) or 40-mL (91.4 ± 4.5%) columns, and at 900 × g for 5 min in 20-mL columns (93.8 ± 8.9%; P < 0.0001). Total (TMY) and progressively motile sperm yield followed a similar pattern (P < 0.0001). Sperm yields were not significantly different among samples centrifuged at various sperm concentrations. However, centrifugation at 100 × 10(6)/mL resulted in significantly lower total sperm yield (83.8 ± 10.7%) and TMY (81.7 ± 6.8%) compared with noncentrifuged semen. Centrifugation in VMDZ resulted in significantly lower TMY (69.3 ± 22.6%), progressively motile sperm yield (63.5 ± 18.2%), viable yield (60.9 ± 36.5%), and survival of progressively motile sperm after cooling (21 ± 10.8%) compared with noncentrifuged semen. In conclusion, centrifuging volumes of ≤ 20 mL minimized sperm losses with conventional protocols. With 40-mL columns, it may be recommended to increase the centrifugal force to 900 × g for 10 min and dilute the semen to a sperm concentration of 25 to 50 × 10(6)/mL in a milk- or fractionated milk-based medium. The semen extender VMDZ did not seem well suited for centrifugation of equine semen.

  11. Bladder Preservation for Localized Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer: The Survival Impact of Local Utilization Rates of Definitive Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Kozak, Kevin R.; Hamidi, Maryam; Manning, Matthew; Moody, John S.

    2012-06-01

    Purpose: This study examines the management and outcomes of muscle-invasive bladder cancer in the United States. Methods and Materials: Patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer diagnosed between 1988 and 2006 were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients were classified according to three mutually exclusive treatment categories based on the primary initial treatment: no local management, radiotherapy, or surgery. Overall survival was assessed with Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox models based on multiple factors including treatment utilization patterns. Results: The study population consisted of 26,851 patients. Age, sex, race, tumor grade, histology, and geographic location were associated with differences in treatment (all p < 0.01). Patients receiving definitive radiotherapy tended to be older and have less differentiated tumors than patients undergoing surgery (RT, median age 78 years old and 90.6% grade 3/4 tumors; surgery, median age 71 years old and 77.1% grade 3/4 tumors). No large shifts in treatment were seen over time, with most patients managed with surgical resection (86.3% for overall study population). Significant survival differences were observed according to initial treatment: median survival, 14 months with no definitive local treatment; 17 months with radiotherapy; and 43 months for surgery. On multivariate analysis, differences in local utilization rates of definitive radiotherapy did not demonstrate a significant effect on overall survival (hazard ratio, 1.002; 95% confidence interval, 0.999-1.005). Conclusions: Multiple factors influence the initial treatment strategy for muscle-invasive bladder cancer, but definitive radiotherapy continues to be used infrequently. Although patients who undergo surgery fare better, a multivariable model that accounted for patient and tumor characteristics found no survival detriment to the utilization of definitive radiotherapy. These results support continued

  12. Estimation of Flattened Musk Turtle (Sternotherus depressus) survival, recapture, and recovery rate during and after a disease outbreak

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fonnesbeck, C.J.; Dodd, C.K.

    2003-01-01

    We estimated survivorship, recapture probabilities and recovery rates in a threatened population of Flattened Musk Turtles (Sternotherus depressus) through a disease outbreak in Alabama in 1985. We evaluated a set of models for the demographic effects of disease by analyzing recaptures and recoveries simultaneously. Multiple-model inference suggested survival was temporally dynamic, whereas recapture probability was sex- and age-specifc. Biweekly survivorship declined from 98-99% before to 82-88% during the outbreak. Live recapture was twice as likely for male turtles relative to juveniles or females, whereas dead recoveries varied only slightly by sex and age. Our results suggest modest reduction in survival over a relatively short time period may severely affect population status.

  13. Effective Treatment for Improving the Survival Rate of Raccoon Dogs Infected with Sarcoptes scabiei

    PubMed Central

    KIDO, Nobuhide; OMIYA, Tomoko; KAMEGAYA, Chihiro; WADA, Yuko; TAKAHASHI, Maya; YAMAMOTO, Yasuhiko

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT Sarcoptes scabiei is one of the important external parasites. Although ivermectin is the recommended treatment, many raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides) that were rescued and brought to the Kanazawa Zoological Gardens (Yokohama, Japan) have died because of S. scabiei, even after receiving single ivermectin treatment. Therefore, supportive treatment should be required. The present study revealed the number of animals that survived was greater after the administration of ivermectin along with an antibiotic for all raccoon dogs, as well as following the administration of fluid therapy to the debilitated raccoon dogs infected with S. scabiei, immediately after the rescue. During the initial period, treatment to improve the general clinical condition was required prior to deworming treatment for S. scabiei. PMID:24813465

  14. Unchanged survival rates of Shadoo knockout mice after infection with mouse-adapted scrapie

    PubMed Central

    Li, Sha; Ju, Chuanjing; Han, Chao; Li, Zhongyi; Liu, Wensen; Ye, Xuemin; Xu, Jing; Xulong, Liang; Wang, Xiong; Chen, Zhibao; Meng, Keyin; Wan, Jiayu

    2014-01-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated that Shadoo (Sho), a GPI-linked glycoprotein encoded by the Sprn gene with a membrane localization similar to PrPC, is reduced in the brains of rodents with terminal prion disease. To determine the functional significance of Sho in prion disease pathogenesis, Sho-deficient mice were generated by gene targeting. Sho knockout and control wild-type (WT) mice were infected with themouse-adapted scrapie strains 22L or RML. No significant differences in survival, the incubation period of prion disease or other disease features were observed between Sho mutant and WT mice. In this model of prion disease, Sho removal had no effect on disease pathogenesis. PMID:25495671

  15. ENDOSCOPIC ULTRASONOGRAPHY IN ESOPHAGEAL CANCER LEADS TO IMPROVED SURVIVAL RATES: RESULTS FROM A POPULATION-BASED STUDY

    PubMed Central

    Wani, Sachin; Das, Ananya; Rastogi, Amit; Drahos, Jennifer; Ricker, Winifred; Parsons, Ruth; Bansal, Ajay; Yen, Roy; Hosford, Lindsay; Jankowski, Meghan; Sharma, Prateek; Cook, Michael B.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Aims The advantages of endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) and computed tomography-positron emission tomography (CT-PET) in relation to survival in esophageal cancer (EC) patients are unclear. This study aimed to assess the effect of EUS, CT-PET and its combination on overall survival relative to cases not receiving these procedures. Methods Patients aged ≥ 66 years diagnosed with EC were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare linked database. Cases were split into four analytic groups: EUS only (n=318), CT-PET only (853), EUS+CT-PET (189) and “no EUS or CT-PET” (2,439). Survival times were estimated by Kaplan-Meier method and compared by using log-rank test for each group versus the “no EUS or CT-PET” group. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare 1, 3 and 5-year survival rates. Results Kaplan-Meier analyses showed that patients undergoing EUS, CT-PET and EUS+CT-PET had improved survival for all stages, all compared with “no EUS or CT-PET”, with the exception of stage 0 disease. Receipt of EUS increased the likelihood of receiving endoscopic therapies, esophagectomy and chemoradiation. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models showed that receipt of EUS was a significant predictor for improved 1-year (HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.39–0.59, p<0.0001), 3-year (HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.48–0.66, p<0.0001) and 5-year (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.50–0.68) survival. Similar results were noted when results were stratified based on histology, as well as for CT-PET and EUS+CT-PET groups. Conclusions Receipt of either EUS or CT-PET alone in EC patients is associated with improved 1, 3 and 5-year survival. Future studies should identify barriers to dissemination of these staging modalities. PMID:25236485

  16. Examining mortality risk and rate of ageing among Polish Olympic athletes: a survival follow-up from 1924 to 2012

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Yuhui; Gajewski, Antoni; Poznańska, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Population-based studies have shown that an active lifestyle reduces mortality risk. Therefore, it has been a longstanding belief that individuals who engage in frequent exercise will experience a slower rate of ageing. It is uncertain whether this widely-accepted assumption holds for intense wear-and-tear. Here, using the 88 years survival follow-up data of Polish Olympic athletes, we report for the first time on whether frequent exercise alters the rate of ageing. Design Longitudinal survival data of male elite Polish athletes who participated in the Olympic Games from year 1924 to 2010 were used. Deaths occurring before the end of World War II were excluded for reliable estimates. Setting and participants Recruited male elite athletes N=1273 were preassigned to two categorical birth cohorts—Cohort I 1890–1919; Cohort II 1920–1959—and a parametric frailty survival analysis was conducted. An event-history analysis was also conducted to adjust for medical improvements from year 1920 onwards: Cohort II. Results Our findings suggest (1) in Cohort I, for every threefold reduction in mortality risk, the rate of ageing decelerates by 1%; (2) socioeconomic transitions and interventions contribute to a reduction in mortality risk of 29% for the general population and 50% for Olympic athletes; (3) an optimum benefit gained for reducing the rate of ageing from competitive sports (Cohort I 0.086 (95% CI 0.047 to 0.157) and Cohort II 0.085 (95% CI 0.050 to 0.144)). Conclusions This study further suggests that intensive physical training during youth should be considered as a factor to improve ageing and mortality risk parameters. PMID:27091824

  17. Migratory behaviour and survival rates of wild northern Atlantic salmon Salmo salar post-smolts: Effects of environmental factors

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Davidsen, J.G.; Rikardsen, A.H.; Halttunen, E.; Thorstad, E.B.; Okland, F.; Letcher, B.H.; Skarhamar, J.; Naesje, T.F.

    2009-01-01

    To study smolt behaviour and survival of a northern Atlantic salmon Salmo salar population during river descent, sea entry and fjord migration, 120 wild S. salar were tagged with acoustic tags and registered at four automatic listening station arrays in the mouth of the north Norwegian River Alta and throughout the Alta Fjord. An estimated 75% of the post-smolts survived from the river mouth, through the estuary and the first 17 km of the fjord. Survival rates in the fjord varied with fork length (LF), and ranged from 97??0 to 99??5% km-1. On average, the post-smolts spent 1??5 days (36 h, range 11-365 h) travelling from the river mouth to the last fjord array, 31 km from the river mouth. The migratory speed was slower (1??8 LF s-1) in the first 4 km after sea entry compared with the next 27 km (3??0 LF s-1). Post-smolts entered the fjord more often during the high or ebbing tide (70%). There was no clear diurnal migration pattern within the river and fjord, but most of the post-smolts entered the fjord at night (66%, 2000-0800 hours), despite the 24 h daylight at this latitude. The tidal cycle, wind-induced currents and the smolts' own movements seemed to influence migratory speeds and routes in different parts of the fjord. A large variation in migration patterns, both in the river and fjord, might indicate that individuals in stochastic estuarine and marine environments are exposed to highly variable selection regimes, resulting in different responses to environmental factors on both temporal and spatial scales. Post-smolts in the northern Alta Fjord had similar early marine survival rates to those observed previously in southern fjords; however, fjord residency in the north was shorter. ?? 2009 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  18. Possible natural hybridization of two morphologically distinct species of Acropora (Cnidaria, Scleractinia) in the Pacific: fertilization and larval survival rates.

    PubMed

    Isomura, Naoko; Iwao, Kenji; Fukami, Hironobu

    2013-01-01

    Natural hybridization of corals in the Indo-Pacific has been considered rather rare. However, field studies have observed many corals with intermediate interspecific or unusual morphologies. Given that the existence of F1 hybrids with intermediate interspecific morphologies has been proven in the Caribbean, hybrids may also inhabit the Indo-Pacific and occur more frequently than expected. In this study, we focused on two morphologically different species, Acropora florida and A. intermedia, and performed crossing experiments at Akajima Island, Japan. Results showed that these species could hybridize in both directions via eggs and sperm, but that fertilization rates significantly differed according to which species provided eggs. These results are similar to those reported from the Caribbean. Although all embryos developed normally to the planular larval stage, the developmental processes of some hybrid embryos were delayed by approximately 1 h compared with conspecific embryos, suggesting that fertilization occurred 1 h later in interspecific crosses than in intraspecific crosses. More successful hybridization could occur under conditions with low numbers of conspecific colonies. Additionally, a comparison of survival rates between hybrid and intraspecific larvae revealed that intra- and interspecific larvae produced from eggs of A. florida survived for significantly longer than those produced from eggs of A. intermedia. Considering these data, under specific conditions, hybrids can be expected to be produced and survive in nature in the Pacific. Furthermore, we identified one colony with intermediate morphology between A. florida and A. intermedia in the field. This colony was fertilized only by eggs of A. florida, with high fertilization rates, suggesting that this colony would be a hybrid of these two species and might be backcrossed.

  19. Survival rates and lifetime reproduction of breeding male Cooper’s Hawks in Wisconsin, 1980-2005

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rosenfield, Robert N.; Bielefeldt, John; Rosenfield, Laura J.; Booms, Travis L.; Bozek, Michael A.

    2009-01-01

    There are few published data on annual survival and no reports of lifetime reproduction for breeding Cooper's Hawks (Accipiter cooperii). Breeding males (n  =  105) in central and southeastern Wisconsin had an annual mortality rate of 19%, or a survival rate of 81% for birds ≤10 years of age. We did not detect significant differences in mortality rates between urban and rural habitats, nor between the earlier 13 years and later 13 years of this study. Male Cooper's Hawks produced from zero to 32 nestlings during their lifetimes. Body mass or size appeared unrelated to annual survivorship and lifetime reproduction, although lifetime reproduction was correlated strongly with longevity of breeding males. Fifteen of 66 males (23%) produced most (53%) of the nestlings. Our studies occurred in an area where breeding populations may be increasing with some of the highest reported productivity indices and nesting densities for this species. Habitat used for nesting on our Wisconsin study areas may be less important for survivorship and lifetime reproduction than acquisition of a nesting area in which a male will breed throughout his life.

  20. Sulfide toxicity: Mechanical ventilation and hypotension determine survival rate and brain necrosis

    SciTech Connect

    Baldelli, R.J.; Green, F.H.Y.; Auer, R.N. )

    1993-09-01

    Occupational exposure to hydrogen sulfide is one of the leading causes of sudden death in the workplace, especially in the oil and gas industry. High-dose exposure causes immediate neurogenic apnea and death; lower doses cause [open quotes]knockdown[close quotes] (transient loss of consciousness, with apnea). Because permanent neurological sequelae have been reported, the authors sought to determine whether sulfide can directly kill central nervous system neurons. Ventilated and unventilated rats were studied to allow administration of higher doses of sulfide and to facilitate physiological monitoring. It was extremely difficult to produce cerebral necrosis with sulfide. Only one of eight surviving unventilated rats given high-dose sulfide (a dose that was lethal in [ge]50% of animals) showed cerebral necrosis. Mechanical ventilation shifted the dose that was lethal in 50% of the animals to 190 mg/kg from 94 mg/kg in the unventilated rats. Sulfide was found to potently depress blood pressure. Cerebral necrosis was absent in the ventilated rats (n = 11), except in one rat that showed profound and sustained hypotension to [le]35 Torr. Electroencephalogram activity ceased during exposure but recovered when the animals regained consciousness. The authors conclude that very-high-dose sulfide is incapable of producing cerebral necrosis by a direct histotoxic effect. 32 refs., 5 figs.

  1. Temperature- and Age-Dependent Survival, Development, and Oviposition Rates of the Pupal Parasitoid Spalangia cameroni (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae).

    PubMed

    Skovgård, Henrik; Nachman, Gösta

    2016-08-01

    The combined effect of temperature and age on development, survival, attack rate, and oviposition of the parasitoid Spalangia cameroni (Perkins) (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae) exploiting house fly pupae was investigated by conducting life-table experiments at 15, 20, 25, 30 and 35°C. Temperature had a pronounced effect on survival and development of the immature stages. Survival was highest at 25°C, where 88.5% of the parasitized host pupae resulted in adult parasitoids, and lowest at 35°C when only 3.78% emerged. Females constituted between 50% (at 20°C) and 100% (at 35°C) of the surviving immatures. Males developed faster than females, with the shortest developmental times at 30°C (18.18 d for males and 19.41 d for females). Longevity of adult females decreased with temperature from 80 d at 15°C to 18 d at 35°C. Total attack rate of female parasitoids was highest at 20°C (106 hosts per female), and life-time reproduction highest at 20°C and 25°C (about 60 offspring per female). Sex ratio was female biased (65% females). A generic model was used to estimate and predict the temperature effect on the intrinsic rate of increase (rm), the net reproduction rate (R0), and the generation time (G). The model predicted that rm peaks at 33.5°C (rm = 0.182 d(-1)), that maximum R0 is reached at 27.2°C (R0 = 50.2), and that the shortest generation time occurs at 34.5°C (G = 21.1 d). Doubling time was 4.19 d at 33°C. In the temperature range between 20°C and 30°C, S. cameroni has the potential to be an efficient control agent against nuisance flies.

  2. Daily survival rates for nests of Black Skimmers from a core breeding area of the Southeastern USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brooks, Gillian L.; Sanders, Felicia J.; Gerard, Patrick D.; Jodice, Patrick G.

    2014-01-01

    Little is known about the reproductive success of Black Skimmers (Rynchops niger) throughout the southeastern USA where availability of undisturbed beaches for nesting is limited. Daily survival rates (DSR) of nests were examined at three nesting sites in Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge (CRNWR), South Carolina, USA, 2009–2010. The percent of successful nests (n  =  346 nests) ranged from 42–69% among colony sites when data were pooled across both years. The DSR of nests was primarily related to colony site, predation risk, height of high tide, and clutch size. Predation and overwash were the principal causes of identifiable nest loss, each accounting for ∼33% of nest failures during the two study years. Because of the challenges of resighting skimmer chicks, we were not able to measure chick survival effectively and therefore accurate measures of productivity remain elusive. High variability in nest success among sites within close proximity to each other (<20 km) suggests factors at local scales such as disturbance, predation, and overwash events strongly influenced nest success of Black Skimmers during these 2 years as opposed to more region-wide stressors such as tropical storms or food availability. Although time-intensive techniques to control predators do exist, management options to limit flooding and overwash are far more limited. Conservation of Black Skimmers in the southeastern USA would benefit from coordinated, multi-state efforts to measure nest and chick survival.

  3. Does Habitat Heterogeneity in a Multi-Use Landscape Influence Survival Rates and Density of a Native Mesocarnivore?

    PubMed Central

    Gese, Eric M.; Thompson, Craig M.

    2014-01-01

    The relationships between predators, prey, and habitat have long been of interest to applied and basic ecologists. As a native Great Plains mesocarnivore of North America, swift foxes (Vulpes velox) depended on the historic disturbance regime to maintain open grassland habitat. With a decline in native grasslands and subsequent impacts to prairie specialists, notably the swift fox, understanding the influence of habitat on native predators is paramount to future management efforts. From 2001 to 2004, we investigated the influence of vegetation structure on swift fox population ecology (survival and density) on and around the Piñon Canyon Maneuver Site, southeastern Colorado, USA. We monitored 109 foxes on 6 study sites exposed to 3 different disturbance regimes (military training, grazing, unused). On each site we evaluated vegetation structure based on shrub density, basal coverage, vegetation height, and litter. Across all sites, annual fox survival rates ranged from 0.50 to 0.92 for adults and 0.27 to 0.78 for juveniles. Among sites, population estimates ranged from 1 to 7 foxes per 10 km transect. Fox density or survival was not related to the relative abundance of prey. A robust model estimating fox population size and incorporating both shrub density and percent basal cover as explanatory variables far outperformed all other models. Our results supported the idea that, in our region, swift foxes were shortgrass prairie specialists and also indicated a relationship between habitat quality and landscape heterogeneity. We suggest the regulation of swift fox populations may be based on habitat quality through landscape-mediated survival, and managers may effectively use disturbance regimes to create or maintain habitat for this native mesocarnivore. PMID:24963713

  4. 38 CFR 3.23 - Improved pension rates-Veterans and surviving spouses.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    .... 5312. Each time there is an increase under 38 U.S.C. 5312, the actual rates will be published in the...), as increased from time to time under 38 U.S.C 5312. Each time there is an increase under 38 U.S.C... Veterans Affairs to do so would work a hardship on the veteran.) There is a rebuttable presumption that...

  5. Effects of slow freezing procedure on late blastocyst gene expression and survival rate in rabbit.

    PubMed

    Saenz-de-Juano, Maria Desemparats; Marco-Jiménez, Francisco; Peñaranda, David S; Joly, Thierry; Vicente, José S

    2012-10-01

    Studies of embryo cryopreservation efficiency have focused mainly on technical and embryo factors. To determine how a slow freezing process affects embryo and fetal development, we studied in vivo development ability after the freezing procedure by assessing blastocyst development at Day 6, implantation, and birth rates. A transcriptional microarray study was also performed to compare gene expression of 6-day-old rabbit embryos previously frozen and transferred into recipient rabbit females to their in vivo counterparts. Our goal was to study which alteration caused by the freezing procedure still remained in late blastocyst stage just at the time when the implantation process began. A microarray specifically designed to study rabbit gene expression profiling was used in this study. Lower implantation and birth rates were obtained in frozen embryos than in the control group (29.9% and 25.7% vs 88.5% and 70.8% for frozen and control embryos, respectively). Likewise, differences were also observed in gene expression profiles. Compared to 6-day-old in vivo-derived embryos, viable frozen embryos presented 70 differentially expressed genes, 24 upregulated and 46 downregulated. In conclusion, our findings showed that the slow freezing process affected late blastocyst development, implantation, and birth rates and that the gene expression alterations identified at late blastocyst stage could be useful in understanding the differences in developmental potential observed and the deficiencies that might hinder implantation and fetal development.

  6. Metabolic and protein interaction sub-networks controlling the proliferation rate of cancer cells and their impact on patient survival.

    PubMed

    Feizi, Amir; Bordel, Sergio

    2013-10-24

    Cancer cells can have a broad scope of proliferation rates. Here we aim to identify the molecular mechanisms that allow some cancer cell lines to grow up to 4 times faster than other cell lines. The correlation of gene expression profiles with the growth rate in 60 different cell lines has been analyzed using several genome-scale biological networks and new algorithms. New possible regulatory feedback loops have been suggested and the known roles of several cell cycle related transcription factors have been confirmed. Over 100 growth-correlated metabolic sub-networks have been identified, suggesting a key role of simultaneous lipid synthesis and degradation in the energy supply of the cancer cells growth. Many metabolic sub-networks involved in cell line proliferation appeared also to correlate negatively with the survival expectancy of colon cancer patients.

  7. Survival Rate and Hematological Responses with Temperature Changes of Red Spotted Grouper, Epinephelus akaara in South Korea

    PubMed Central

    Park, Jong Youn; Han, Kyeong Ho; Cho, Jae Kwon; Kim, Kyong Min; Son, Maeng Hyun; Park, Jae Min; Kang, Hee Woong

    2016-01-01

    The effect of sudden changes of water temperature (WT) on the survival rate and physiological responses of the red spotted grouper (Epinephelus akaara) were examined by manipulating WT control system for 9 days. Experimental condition was divided in two different regimes at low (from 10°C to 4°C, decreased 1℃/d) and high (from 28°C to 34°C, increased 1°C/d) WT. Survival rate of experimental fishes were observed, and determined the changes of hematological characteristics by analyzing plasma levels of cortisol, glucose, total protein, and electrolytes (Na+, Cl–, K+). No mortality was observed until low WT 6°C (144 h) and high WT 32°C (96 h), and 100% mortality was observed at low WT 4°C (216 h) and high WT 35°C (171 h). Plasma levels of cortisol and glucose increased rapidly as decreasing WT, and the loss of swimming ability and respiration response was observed at low WT 7°C and high WT 34°C conditions. PMID:27660825

  8. BubR1 as a prognostic marker for recurrence-free survival rates in epithelial ovarian cancers

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Y-K; Choi, E; Kim, M A; Park, P-G; Park, N-H; Lee, H

    2009-01-01

    Background: Epithelial ovarian cancer is one of the most lethal malignancies, and has a high recurrence rate. Thus, prognostic markers for recurrence are crucial for the care of ovarian cancer. As ovarian cancers frequently exhibit chromosome instability, we aimed at assessing the prognostic significance of two key mitotic kinases, BubR1 and Aurora A. Methods: We analysed paraffin-embedded tissue sections from 160 ovarian cancer patients whose clinical outcomes had been tracked after first-line treatment. Results: The median recurrence-free survival in patients with a positive and negative expression of BubR1 was 27 and 83 months, respectively (P<0.001). A positive BubR1 expression was also associated with advanced stage, serous histology and high grade. In contrast, Aurora A immunostaining did not correlate with any of the clinical parameters analysed. Conclusion: BubR1, but not Aurora A, is a prognostic marker for recurrence-free survival rates in epithelial ovarian cancers. PMID:19603021

  9. Comparison of Survival Rates, Tumor Stages, and Localization in between Obese and Nonobese Patients with Gastric Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Dogan, Hakan; Oguz, Basak; Ocak Serin, Sibel; Okuturlar, Yildiz; Gunaldi, Meral; Erismis, Betul; Ozdemir, Bahar; Tural, Deniz; Hursitoglu, Mehmet; Harmankaya, Ozlem; Kumbasar, Abdulbaki

    2016-01-01

    Purpose. In this study we tried to determine the association between body-mass index (BMI), survival rate, and the stage of tumor at the time of diagnosis in patients with gastric cancer. Methods. A total of 270 gastric cancer patients' hospital records were retrospectively evaluated. Patients were grouped according to their BMI at the time of tumor diagnosis. Tumor stages at admission were compared according to their BMI values. Results. There were no differences in OS among BMI subgroups (p = 0.230). The percent of patients with stage III tumor was significantly higher in nonobese while the percent of stage IV tumor was surprisingly higher in obese patients (p was 0.011 and 0.004, resp.). Percent of patients who did not have any surgical intervention was significantly lower in overweight and obese patients than normal and/or underweight patients. Conclusions. At the time of diagnosis, obese patients had significantly higher percent of stage IV tumor than nonobese patients. Despite of that, there were no differences in survival rates among BMI subgroups. Our study results are consistent with “obesity paradox” in gastric cancer patients. We also did not find any relationship between BMI and localization of gastric tumor. PMID:27418926

  10. 78 FR 773 - Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., Commercial/Actuarial/Information Delivery Services (IDS...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-01-04

    ... Employment and Training Administration Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., Commercial/Actuarial/ Information Delivery Services (IDS)/Corporate & Financial Reporting Group, Hartford, CT; Notice of Affirmative... (IDS)/Corporate & Financial Reporting group, Hartford, Connecticut (The Hartford-IDS Group)....

  11. 20 CFR 901.20 - Standards of performance of actuarial services.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... representation if such document is necessary for the taxpayer to comply with his or her current obligations under... actuarial document he/she has signed upon discovery of the non-filing. Such notification shall be made...

  12. 20 CFR 901.20 - Standards of performance of actuarial services.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... representation if such document is necessary for the taxpayer to comply with his or her current obligations under... actuarial document he/she has signed upon discovery of the non-filing. Such notification shall be made...

  13. A classification tree approach to the development of actuarial violence risk assessment tools.

    PubMed

    Steadman, H J; Silver, E; Monahan, J; Appelbaum, P S; Robbins, P C; Mulvey, E P; Grisso, T; Roth, L H; Banks, S

    2000-02-01

    Since the 1970s, a wide body of research has suggested that the accuracy of clinical risk assessments of violence might be increased if clinicians used actuarial tools. Despite considerable progress in recent years in the development of such tools for violence risk assessment, they remain primarily research instruments, largely ignored in daily clinical practice. We argue that because most existing actuarial tools are based on a main effects regression approach, they do not adequately reflect the contingent nature of the clinical assessment processes. To enhance the use of actuarial violence risk assessment tools, we propose a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach. In addition, we suggest that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases--instead of the standard single threshold--the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced. These claims are supported with empirical data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.

  14. A Bayesian approach to the group versus individual prediction controversy in actuarial risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Scurich, Nicholas; John, Richard S

    2012-06-01

    Recent attempts to indict the use of actuarial risk assessment instruments have relied on confidence intervals to demonstrate that risk estimates derived at the group level do not necessarily apply to any specific individual within that group. This article contends that frequentist confidence intervals are inapposite to the current debate. Instead, Bayesian credible intervals are necessary-in principle-to accomplish what commentators are concerned about: describing the precision of an actuarial risk estimate. After illustrating both the calculation and interpretation of credible intervals, this article shows how such intervals can be used to characterize the precision of actuarial risk estimates. It then explores the legal implications of wide and overlapping intervals. Contrary to what detractors claim, the fact that risk estimate intervals overlap is not a germane to legal (logical) relevance, and therefore actuarial risk estimates cannot be per se "inadmissible" on this basis.

  15. Dose-rate models for human survival after exposure to ionizing radiation

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, T.D.; Morris, M.D.; Young, R.W.

    1986-01-01

    This paper reviews new estimates of the L/sub 50/ in man by Mole and by Rotblat, the biological processes contributing to hematologic death, the collection of animal experiments dealing with hematologic death, and the use of regression analysis to make new estimates of human mortality based on all relevant animal studies. Regression analysis of animal mortality data has shown that mortality is dependent strongly on dose rate, species, body weight, and time interval over which the exposure is delivered. The model has predicted human LD/sub 50/s of 194, 250, 310, and 360 rad to marrow when the exposure time is a minute, an hour, a day, and a week, respectively.

  16. Reactive oxygen species in plasma against E. coli cells survival rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Ren-Wu; Zhang, Xian-Hui; Zong, Zi-Chao; Li, Jun-Xiong; Yang, Zhou-Bin; Liu, Dong-Ping; Yang, Si-Ze

    2015-08-01

    In this paper, we report on the contrastive analysis of inactivation efficiency of E. coli cells in solution with different disinfection methods. Compared with the hydrogen peroxide solution and the ozone gas, the atmospheric-pressure He plasma can completely kill the E. coli cells in the shortest time. The inactivation efficiency of E. coli cells in solution can be well described by using the chemical reaction rate model. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) analysis shows that the C-O or C=O content of the inactivated E. coli cell surface by plasma is predominantly increased, indicating the quantity of oxygen-containing species in plasma is more than those of two other methods, and then the C-C or C-H bonds can be broken, leading to the etching of organic compounds. Analysis also indicates that plasma-generated species can play a crucial role in the inactivation process by their direct reactions or the decompositions of reactive species, such as ozone into OH radicals in water, then reacting with E. coli cells. Project supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province, China (Grant No. 2014J01025), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11275261), and the Funds from the Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory for Plasma and Magnetic Resonance, China.

  17. Rapid wetland expansion during European settlement and its implication for marsh survival under modern sediment delivery rates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kirwan, Matthew L.; Murray, A. Brad; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Corbett, D. Reide

    2011-01-01

    Fluctuations in sea-level rise rates are thought to dominate the formation and evolution of coastal wetlands. Here we demonstrate a contrasting scenario in which land-use-related changes in sediment delivery rates drive the formation of expansive marshland, and vegetation feedbacks maintain their morphology despite recent sediment supply reduction. Stratigraphic analysis and radiocarbon dating in the Plum Island Estuary (Massachusetts, United States) suggest that salt marshes expanded rapidly during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries due to increased rates of sediment delivery following deforestation associated with European settlement. Numerical modeling coupled with the stratigraphic observations suggests that existing marshland could survive, but not form under the low suspended sediment concentrations observed in the estuary today. These results suggest that many of the expansive marshes that characterize the modern North American coast are metastable relicts of high nineteenth century sediment delivery rates, and that recent observations of degradation may represent a slow return to pre-settlement marsh extent. In contrast to ecosystem management practices in which restoring pre-anthropogenic conditions is seen as a way to increase ecosystem services, our results suggest that widespread efforts to restore valuable coastal wetlands actually prevent some systems from returning to a natural state.

  18. The economic value of fatal and non-fatal occupational risks in Mexico City using actuarial- and perceived-risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Hammitt, James K; Ibarrarán, María Eugenia

    2006-12-01

    Compensating wage differentials are used to estimate marginal rates of substitution between income and both fatal and non-fatal occupational-injury risks in the Mexico City metropolitan area. Data are obtained by in-person survey of almost 600 workers and include workers' perceived risks of fatal and non-fatal occupational injury supplemented by actuarial-risk estimates from government statistics. Results using both actuarial- and perceived-risk estimates are reasonably consistent. Estimates of the value per statistical life are between 235,000 US dollars and 325,000 US dollars and estimates of the value per statistical non-fatal injury are between 3500 US dollars and 11,000 US dollars (2002 US dollars). These values are much smaller than corresponding estimates for higher-income countries but are compatible with the small number of prior estimates for lower-income countries.

  19. Effect of Clearcutting Operations on the Survival Rate of a Small Mammal

    PubMed Central

    Escobar, Martín A. H.; Uribe, Sandra V.; Chiappe, Romina; Estades, Cristián F.

    2015-01-01

    Clearcutting is a common timber harvesting technique that represents a significant and abrupt change in habitat conditions for wildlife living in industrial forests. Most research on this type of impact has focused on comparing populations or communities in mature forests/plantations and the resulting clearcut stands. However, this approach does not separate the effect of changes in habitat attributes from direct mortality produced by the intensive use of heavy machinery required for cutting down trees and dragging them to a road. Because knowing the fate of individuals after a disturbance is important for modelling landscape-scale population dynamics in industrial forests, we conducted a study in South-Central Chile to understand the short-term response to clearcutting operations of the long-haired Akodont (Abrothrix longipillis), a forest specialist mouse. Between 2009 and 2013 we radiotracked a total of 51 adult male Akodonts, before, during and after the clearcutting of the pine plantations in which they lived. A minimum of 52.4% of the individuals died as a direct cause of the timbering operations, being crushed by vehicles or logs during logging operations. Our observations suggest that, instead of fleeing the area, the response of long-haired Akodonts to the approaching machinery is to hide under the forest litter or in burrows, which exposes them to a serious risk of death. The real mortality rate associated to clearcutting may be higher than that estimated by us because of some methodological biases (i.e. individuals with crushed radiotransmitters not recorded) and the fact that additional mortality sources may affect the population in the weeks following logging operations (e.g. higher exposure to predation, effects of site preparation for the new plantation, etc). PMID:25748217

  20. Effect of clearcutting operations on the survival rate of a small mammal.

    PubMed

    Escobar, Martín A H; Uribe, Sandra V; Chiappe, Romina; Estades, Cristián F

    2015-01-01

    Clearcutting is a common timber harvesting technique that represents a significant and abrupt change in habitat conditions for wildlife living in industrial forests. Most research on this type of impact has focused on comparing populations or communities in mature forests/plantations and the resulting clearcut stands. However, this approach does not separate the effect of changes in habitat attributes from direct mortality produced by the intensive use of heavy machinery required for cutting down trees and dragging them to a road. Because knowing the fate of individuals after a disturbance is important for modelling landscape-scale population dynamics in industrial forests, we conducted a study in South-Central Chile to understand the short-term response to clearcutting operations of the long-haired Akodont (Abrothrix longipillis), a forest specialist mouse. Between 2009 and 2013 we radiotracked a total of 51 adult male Akodonts, before, during and after the clearcutting of the pine plantations in which they lived. A minimum of 52.4% of the individuals died as a direct cause of the timbering operations, being crushed by vehicles or logs during logging operations. Our observations suggest that, instead of fleeing the area, the response of long-haired Akodonts to the approaching machinery is to hide under the forest litter or in burrows, which exposes them to a serious risk of death. The real mortality rate associated to clearcutting may be higher than that estimated by us because of some methodological biases (i.e. individuals with crushed radiotransmitters not recorded) and the fact that additional mortality sources may affect the population in the weeks following logging operations (e.g., higher exposure to predation, effects of site preparation for the new plantation, etc).

  1. Clopidogrel use After Myocardial Revascularization: Prevalence, Predictors, and One-Year Survival Rate

    PubMed Central

    Prates, Paulo Roberto L.; Williams, Judson B.; Mehta, Rajendra H.; Stevens, Susanna R.; Thomas, Laine; Smith, Peter K.; Newby, L. Kristin; Kalil, Renato A. K.; Alexander, John H.; Lopes, Renato D.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Antiplatelet therapy after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used. Little is known about the predictors and efficacy of clopidogrel in this scenario. Objective Identify predictors of clopidogrel following CABG. Methods We evaluated 5404 patients who underwent CABG between 2000 and 2009 at Duke University Medical Center. We excluded patients undergoing concomitant valve surgery, those who had postoperative bleeding or death before discharge. Postoperative clopidogrel was left to the discretion of the attending physician. Adjusted risk for 1-year mortality was compared between patients receiving and not receiving clopidogrel during hospitalization after undergoing CABG. Results At hospital discharge, 931 (17.2%) patients were receiving clopidogrel. Comparing patients not receiving clopidogrel at discharge, users had more comorbidities, including hyperlipidemia, hypertension, heart failure, peripheral arterial disease and cerebrovascular disease. Patients who received aspirin during hospitalization were less likely to receive clopidogrel at discharge (P≤0.0001). Clopidogrel was associated with similar 1-year mortality compared with those who did not use clopidogrel (4.4% vs. 4.5%, P=0.72). There was, however, an interaction between the use of cardiopulmonary bypass and clopidogrel, with lower 1-year mortality in patients undergoing off-pump CABG who received clopidogrel, but not those undergoing conventional CABG (2.6% vs 5.6%, P Interaction = 0.032). Conclusion Clopidogrel was used in nearly one-fifth of patients after CABG. Its use was not associated with lower mortality after 1 year in general, but lower mortality rate in those undergoing off-pump CABG. Randomized clinical trials are needed to determine the benefit of routine use of clopidogrel in CABG. PMID:27556308

  2. Enhanced cardiac TBC1D10C expression lowers heart rate and enhances exercise capacity and survival

    PubMed Central

    Volland, Cornelia; Bremer, Sebastian; Hellenkamp, Kristian; Hartmann, Nico; Dybkova, Nataliya; Khadjeh, Sara; Kutschenko, Anna; Liebetanz, David; Wagner, Stefan; Unsöld, Bernhard; Didié, Michael; Toischer, Karl; Sossalla, Samuel; Hasenfuß, Gerd; Seidler, Tim

    2016-01-01

    TBC1D10C is a protein previously demonstrated to bind and inhibit Ras and Calcineurin. In cardiomyocytes, also CaMKII is inhibited and all three targeted enzymes are known to promote maladaptive cardiomyocyte hypertrophy. Here, in accordance with lack of Calcineurin inhibition in vivo, we did not observe a relevant anti-hypertrophic effect despite inhibition of Ras and CaMKII. However, cardiomyocyte-specific TBC1D10C overexpressing transgenic mice exhibited enhanced longevity. Ejection fraction and exercise capacity were enhanced in transgenic mice, but shortening of isolated cardiomyocytes was not increased. This suggests longevity resulted from enhanced cardiac performance but independent of cardiomyocyte contractile force. In further search for mechanisms, a transcriptome-wide analysis revealed expressional changes in several genes pertinent to control of heart rate (HR) including Hcn4, Scn10a, Sema3a and Cacna2d2. Indeed, telemetric holter recordings demonstrated slower atrial conduction and significantly lower HR. Pharmacological reduction of HR was previously demonstrated to enhance survival in mice. Thus, in addition to inhibition of stress signaling, TBC1D10C economizes generation of cardiac output via HR reduction, enhancing exercise capacity and survival. TBC1D10C may be a new target for HR reduction and longevity. PMID:27667030

  3. Mandible-Powered Escape Jumps in Trap-Jaw Ants Increase Survival Rates during Predator-Prey Encounters

    PubMed Central

    Larabee, Fredrick J.; Suarez, Andrew V.

    2015-01-01

    Animals use a variety of escape mechanisms to increase the probability of surviving predatory attacks. Antipredator defenses can be elaborate, making their evolutionary origin unclear. Trap-jaw ants are known for their rapid and powerful predatory mandible strikes, and some species have been observed to direct those strikes at the substrate, thereby launching themselves into the air away from a potential threat. This potential escape mechanism has never been examined in a natural context. We studied the use of mandible-powered jumping in Odontomachus brunneus during their interactions with a common ant predator: pit-building antlions. We observed that while trap-jaw ant workers escaped from antlion pits by running in about half of interactions, in 15% of interactions they escaped by mandible-powered jumping. To test whether escape jumps improved individual survival, we experimentally prevented workers from jumping and measured their escape rate. Workers with unrestrained mandibles escaped from antlion pits significantly more frequently than workers with restrained mandibles. Our results indicate that some trap-jaw ant species can use mandible-powered jumps to escape from common predators. These results also provide a charismatic example of evolutionary co-option, where a trait that evolved for one function (predation) has been co-opted for another (defense). PMID:25970637

  4. Increased drying rate lowers the critical water content for survival in embryonic axes of English oak (Quercus robur L.) seeds.

    PubMed

    Ntuli, Tobias M; Finch-Savage, William E; Berjak, Patricia; Pammenter, Norman W

    2011-04-01

    The potential to cryopreserve embryonic axes of desiccation-sensitive (recalcitrant) seeds is limited by damage during the desiccation necessary for low temperature survival, but the basis of this injury and how to reduce it is not well understood. The effects of drying rate on the viability, respiratory metabolism and free radical-mediated processes were therefore investigated during dehydration of Quercus robur L. embryonic axes. Viability, assessed by evidence of germination and tetrazolium staining, showed a sharp decline at 0.27 and 0.8 g/g during rapid (<12 h) or slow (3 d) dehydration, respectively. Rapid dehydration therefore lowered the critical water content for survival. At any given water content rapid dehydration was associated with higher activities of the free radical processing enzymes, superoxide dismutase, catalase and glutathione reductase and lower levels of hydroperoxide and membrane damage. Rapid dehydration was also associated with lower malate dehydrogenase activity, and a reduced decline in phosphofructokinase activity and in levels of the oxidized form of nicotinamide dinucleotide. Ageing may have contributed to increased damage during slow dehydration, since viability declined even in hydrated storage after 3 d. The results presented are consistent with rapid dehydration reducing the accumulation of damage resulting from desiccation induced aqueous-based deleterious reactions.

  5. 76 FR 67572 - Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rate, and Annual Deductible...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-01

    ... health clinics, ambulatory surgical centers, comprehensive outpatient rehabilitation facilities, and..., Federally qualified health centers, rehabilitation and psychiatric hospitals, etc. ] Table 3--Derivation of... facilities, rural health clinics, Federally qualified health centers, rehabilitation and...

  6. 77 FR 69850 - Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rate, and Annual Deductible...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-11-21

    ... sequestration, a contingency reserve ratio in excess of 20 percent of the following year's expenditures would... legislation, then the Part B asset reserve ratio for December 31, 2013 would be approximately 9.3 percentage... reserve ratios at the end of 2013 would be reduced by approximately another 2 percentage points....

  7. Role of radium implants in cancer of the oral cavity and oral pharynx. [Control and survival rates and complications

    SciTech Connect

    Fayos, J.V.

    1980-04-01

    Eighty-five patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the oral cavity tonsillar region or base of the tongue received a radium implant. Implants were done as a supplement to external irradiation except in three patients in whom it was the sole form of treatment. The median dose was 8500 rad given in about 8 weeks, 6000 to 6500 rad given by opposing lateral fields using /sup 60/Co radiation; 25% of the patients received doses higher than 8600 rad. The implant boosted the dose to the primary. Most of the patients who had radium implants had advanced disease. The overall control rate of the primary was 45.9%, the highest control achieved with smaller lesions. Surgery was performed in 26 patients for recurrence at the primary; five developed osteonecrosis of the jaw bone. The survival at 4 and 5 years was approximately equal for Stages I and II (80%); it was 40% for Stages III and IV.

  8. Effect of Warming Rate on the Survival of Vitrified Mouse Oocytes and on the Recrystallization of Intracellular Ice1

    PubMed Central

    Seki, Shinsuke; Mazur, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Successful cryopreservation demands there be little or no intracellular ice. One procedure is classical slow equilibrium freezing, and it has been successful in many cases. However, for some important cell types, including some mammalian oocytes, it has not. For the latter, there are increasing attempts to cryopreserve them by vitrification. However, even if intracellular ice formation (IIF) is prevented during cooling, it can still occur during the warming of a vitrified sample. Here, we examine two aspects of this occurrence in mouse oocytes. One took place in oocytes that were partly dehydrated by an initial hold for 12 min at −25°C. They were then cooled rapidly to −70°C and warmed slowly, or they were warmed rapidly to intermediate temperatures and held. These oocytes underwent no IIF during cooling but blackened from IIF during warming. The blackening rate increased about 5-fold for each five-degree rise in temperature. Upon thawing, they were dead. The second aspect involved oocytes that had been vitrified by cooling to −196°C while suspended in a concentrated solution of cryoprotectants and warmed at rates ranging from 140°C/min to 3300°C/min. Survivals after warming at 140°C/min and 250°C/min were low (<30%). Survivals after warming at ≥2200°C/min were high (80%). When warmed slowly, they were killed, apparently by the recrystallization of previously formed small internal ice crystals. The similarities and differences in the consequences of the two types of freezing are discussed. PMID:18562703

  9. Metallic copper corrosion rates, moisture content, and growth medium influence survival of copper ion-resistant bacteria.

    PubMed

    Elguindi, Jutta; Moffitt, Stuart; Hasman, Henrik; Andrade, Cassandra; Raghavan, Srini; Rensing, Christopher

    2011-03-01

    The rapid killing of various bacteria in contact with metallic copper is thought to be influenced by the influx of copper ions into the cells, but the exact mechanism is not fully understood. This study showed that the kinetics of contact killing of copper surfaces depended greatly on the amount of moisture present, copper content of alloys, type of medium used, and type of bacteria. We examined antibiotic- and copper ion-resistant strains of Escherichia coli and Enterococcus faecium isolated from pig farms following the use of copper sulfate as feed supplement. The results showed rapid killing of both copper ion-resistant E. coli and E. faecium strains when samples in rich medium were spread in a thin, moist layer on copper alloys with 85% or greater copper content. E. coli strains were rapidly killed under dry conditions, while E. faecium strains were less affected. Electroplated copper surface corrosion rates were determined from electrochemical polarization tests using the Stern-Geary method and revealed decreased corrosion rates with benzotriazole and thermal oxide coating. Copper ion-resistant E. coli and E. faecium cells suspended in 0.8% NaCl showed prolonged survival rates on electroplated copper surfaces with benzotriazole coating and thermal oxide coating compared to surfaces without anti-corrosion treatment. Control of surface corrosion affected the level of copper ion influx into bacterial cells, which contributed directly to bacterial killing.

  10. Restored river corridors: first results on the effects of flow variability on vegetation cuttings survival rate and related root architecture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasquale, N.; Perona, P.; Jiang, Z.; Burlando, P.

    2009-04-01

    Understanding and predicting the evolution of river alluvial bed forms toward a vegetated or a non-vegetated morphology have important implications for restored river corridors and the related ecosystem functioning (see also Schäppi et al, this session). Vegetation recruitment and growth on non-cohesive material of river corridors, such as gravel bars and islands of braided river, depend on the ability of roots to develop and anchor efficiently such to resist against flow erosion. In this work, we study the interannual morphological evolution of a gravel bar island, the survival rate and the growth of a number of plots with different density and orientation of transplanted cuttings (Salix Alba), the space and time dynamics of which depend on erosion and deposition processes due to floods. Our purpose is to identify island locations where the hydrodynamic conditions are more suitable for plants germination, growth and survival in relation to the river hydrograph statistics. This information is a first step to build a stochastic model able to predict the future evolution and progress of the restoration action of the investigated river reach. We focus at the main island of River Thur at Niederneunforn (Canton Thurgau, Switzerland), the restoration success of which is investigated from a mechanistic viewpoint in the research project "REstored CORridor Dynamics" (www.record.ethz.ch). Accordingly, we analyze two recent Digital Elevation Models (1 year difference), which were first corrected to account for the river bathymetry, and then we compare them in order to extract relevant interannual morphological changes. Using a two dimensional numerical hydrodynamic model we simulate several flow conditions ranging from the minimum recorded flow up to the one that completely inundates the island. Hence, we build inundation maps of the island that we associate to the frequency and the submergence duration of every area. We then correlate such results to the observed survival

  11. Automated Peritoneal Dialysis Is Associated with Better Survival Rates Compared to Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Beduschi, Gabriela de Carvalho; Figueiredo, Ana Elizabeth; Olandoski, Marcia; Pecoits-Filho, Roberto; Barretti, Pasqual; de Moraes, Thyago Proenca

    2015-01-01

    Introduction The impact of peritoneal dialysis modality on patient survival and peritonitis rates is not fully understood, and no large-scale randomized clinical trial (RCT) is available. In the absence of a RCT, the use of an advanced matching procedure to reduce selection bias in large cohort studies may be the best approach. The aim of this study is to compare automated peritoneal dialysis (APD) and continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) according to peritonitis risk, technique failure and patient survival in a large nation-wide PD cohort Methods This is a prospective cohort study that included all incident PD patients with at least 90 days of PD recruited in the BRAZPD study. All patients who were treated exclusively with either APD or CAPD were matched for 15 different covariates using a propensity score calculated with the nearest neighbor method. Clinical outcomes analyzed were overall mortality, technique failure and time to first peritonitis. For all analysis we also adjusted the curves for the presence of competing risks with the Fine and Gray analysis. Results After the matching procedure, 2,890 patients were included in the analysis (1,445 in each group). Baseline characteristics were similar for all covariates including: age, diabetes, BMI, Center-experience, coronary artery disease, cancer, literacy, hypertension, race, previous HD, gender, pre-dialysis care, family income, peripheral artery disease and year of starting PD. Mortality rate was higher in CAPD patients (SHR1.44 CI95%1.21-1.71) compared to APD, but no difference was observed for technique failure (SHR0.83 CI95%0.69-1.02) nor for time till the first peritonitis episode (SHR0.96 CI95%0.93-1.11). Conclusion In the first large PD cohort study with groups balanced for several covariates using propensity score matching, PD modality was not associated with differences in neither time to first peritonitis nor in technique failure. Nevertheless, patient survival was significantly better

  12. Temporal abundance, parity, survival rates, and arbovirus isolation of field-collected container-inhabiting mosquitoes in eastern Tennessee.

    PubMed

    Gottfried, Kristy L; Gerhardt, Reid R; Nasci, Roger S; Crabtree, Mary B; Karabatsos, Nick; Burkhalter, Kristen L; Davis, Brent S; Panella, Nicholas A; Paulson, Dave J

    2002-09-01

    Surveillance of container-inhabiting mosquitoes was conducted from June 17 through November 9, 1998, at 2 1997 La Crosse virus (LAC) human case sites (Knox and Cocke counties, Tennessee). Mosquitoes were collected weekly with 2 dry ice-baited Centers for Disease Control miniature light traps, 2 omnidirectional Fay traps, and 40 oviposition traps at each site. A total of 8,408 mosquitoes, composed of Ochlerotatus triseriatus (n = 2,095) and Aedes albopictus (n = 6,313), were reared or collected and assayed for virus. The majority of host-seeking Ae. albopictus (n = 567) collected from July through October from both sites were dissected to determine parity status. Monthly parity rates ranged from 0.78 to 0.85 and 0.79 to 0.92 in Knox and Cocke counties, respectively. The high parity rates indicate that this population of Ae. albopictus has a high daily survival rate and may have a high vector potential. The temporal patterns in Ae. albopictus and Oc. triseriatus egg collections from both of the human case sites were significantly correlated, suggesting that the populations fluctuate in a similar manner across the eastern Tennessee region. Although LAC was not isolated from either species, one isolation of a California serogroup virus, most likely a subtype of Jamestown Canyon virus (JC), was recovered from a pool of 50 male Ae. albopictus reared from eggs collected at the Knox County site (minimum field infection rate of 1.89 per 1,000). This is the 1st report of a very closely related JC-like virus in Ae. albopictus and from Tennessee, as well as the 1st time this potential human pathogen has been isolated from transovarially infected field populations of Ae. albopictus.

  13. A theoretical model of the evolution of actuarial senescence under environmental stress

    PubMed Central

    Watson, H.; Cohen, A.A.; Isaksson, C.

    2015-01-01

    Free-living organisms are exposed to a wide range of stressors, all of which can disrupt components of stress-related and detoxification physiology. The subsequent accumulation of somatic damage is widely believed to play a major role in the evolution of senescence. Organisms have evolved sophisticated physiological regulatory mechanisms to maintain homeostasis in response to environmental perturbations, but these systems are likely to be constrained in their ability to optimise robustness to multiple stressors due to functional correlations among related traits. While evolutionary change can accelerate due to human ecological impacts, it remains to be understood how exposure to multiple environmental stressors could affect senescence rates and subsequently population dynamics and fitness. We used a theoretical evolutionary framework to quantify the potential consequences for the evolution of actuarial senescence in response to exposure to simultaneous physiological stressors – one versus multiple and additive versus synergistic – in a hypothetical population of avian “urban adapters”. In a model in which multiple stressors have additive effects on physiology, species may retain greater capacity to recover, or respond adaptively, to environmental challenges. However, in the presence of high synergy, physiological dysregulation suddenly occurs, leading to a rapid increase in age-dependent mortality and subsequent population collapse. Our results suggest that, if the synergistic model is correct, population crashes in environmentally-stressed species could happen quickly and with little warning, as physiological thresholds of stress resistance are overcome. PMID:26335620

  14. Age, actuarial risk, and long-term recidivism in a national sample of sex offenders.

    PubMed

    Nicholaichuk, Terry P; Olver, Mark E; Gu, Deqiang; Wong, Stephen C P

    2014-10-01

    Age at release has become an increasing focus of study with regard to evaluating risk in the sex offender population and has been repeatedly shown to be an important component of the risk assessment equation. This study constitutes an extension of a study of sex offender outcomes prepared for the Evaluation Branch, Correctional Service of Canada. The entire cohort of 2,401 male federally incarcerated sexual offenders who reached their warrant expiry date (WED) within 1997/1998, 1998/1999, and 1999/2000 fiscal years were reviewed for the study. Sexual and violent reconviction information was obtained from CPIC criminal records over an average of 12.0 years (SD = 1.7) follow-up. This study focused upon the cohort of sex offenders who were 50 years or older at time of release (N = 542). They were stratified according to risk using a brief actuarial scale (BARS) comprising six binary variables. For the most part, older offenders showed low base rates of sexual recidivism regardless of the risk band into which they fell. The exception was a small group of elderly offenders (n = 20) who fell into the highest risk band, and who showed high levels of sexual recidivism. The results of this combination of cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of elderly sexual offenders may have important implications for offender management, particularly in light of the increasing numbers of offenders in Canada who fall into the over 50 age cohort.

  15. Daily survival rate for nests and chicks of Least Terns (Sternula antillarum) at natural nest sites in South Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brooks, Gillian L.; Sanders, Felicia J.; Gerard, Patrick D.; Jodice, Patrick G.

    2013-01-01

    Although a species of conservation concern, little is known about the reproductive success of Least Terns (Sternula antillarum) throughout the southeastern USA where availability of natural beaches for nesting is limited. Daily survival rate (DSR) of nests and chicks was examined at four natural nesting sites in Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge, South Carolina, 2009–2010. Measures of nest success (n = 257 nests) ranged from 0–93% among colony sites. The DSR of nests was primarily related to colony site, but year and estimates of predation risk also were related to DSR. Predation was the principal cause of identifiable nest loss, accounting for 47% of nest failures when the two years of data were pooled. The probability (± SE) of a chick surviving from hatching to fledging = 0.449 ± 0.01 (n = 92 chicks). DSR of chicks was negatively related to tide height and rainfall. Therefore, productivity of Least Terns is being lost during both the nesting and chick stage through a combination of biotic and abiotic factors that may prove difficult to fully mitigate or manage. Although natural nesting sites within Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge intermittently produce successful nests, the consistency of productivity over the long term is still unknown. Given that the long term availability of anthropogenic nest sites (e.g., rooftops, dredge-spoil islands) for Least Terns is questionable, further research is required both locally and throughout the region to assess the extent to which natural sites act as population sources or sinks.

  16. Differential drying rates of recalcitrant Trichilia dregeana embryonic axes: a study of survival and oxidative stress metabolism.

    PubMed

    Varghese, Boby; Sershen; Berjak, Patricia; Varghese, Dalia; Pammenter, Norman W

    2011-08-01

    Studies to elucidate the biochemical basis of survival of excised embryonic axes (EAs) of recalcitrant seeds of Trichilia dregeana at different drying rates revealed significant differences between slow and rapid drying. Rapid drying allowed these EAs to survive dehydration to much lower water contents (WCs; ca. 0.31 g g⁻¹ dry mass basis with 73% germination) compared with slow drying, where 90% of the EAs lost viability at a WC of ca. 0.79 g g⁻¹. In EAs slowly dried within seeds, the levels of hydroxyl radical (three- to fivefold at WCs > 0.5 g g⁻¹) and lipid peroxidation (50% at similar WC) were significantly higher compared with those dried rapidly to comparable WCs. When EAs were dried slowly, enzymic antioxidant levels were not sustained and declined significantly with prolonged storage. In contrast, sustained activity of enzymic antioxidants was detected in rapidly dried EAs even at relatively low WCs. Furthermore, the greater decline in glutathione (GSH)/GSH disulphide ratio in EAs slowly dried within seeds compared with rapidly dried EAs and a shift in GSH redox potential to relatively more positive values in the EAs slowly dried within seeds was correlated with considerable viability loss. It is apparent from this study that greater retention of viability to lower WCs in rapidly dried EAs from recalcitrant seeds may at least be partly explained by the retention of functional antioxidant status. It is also suggested that the reduction of viability in rapidly dried EAs at very low WCs appears to be a non-oxidative process.

  17. The role of poverty rate and racial distribution in the geographic clustering of breast cancer survival among older women: a geographic and multilevel analysis.

    PubMed

    Schootman, Mario; Jeffe, Donna B; Lian, Min; Gillanders, William E; Aft, Rebecca

    2009-03-01

    The authors examined disparities in survival among women aged 66 years or older in association with census-tract-level poverty rate, racial distribution, and individual-level factors, including patient-, treatment-, and tumor-related factors, utilization of medical care, and mammography use. They used linked data from the 1992-1999 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) programs, 1991-1999 Medicare claims, and the 1990 US Census. A geographic information system and advanced statistics identified areas of increased or reduced breast cancer survival and possible reasons for geographic variation in survival in 2 of the 5 SEER areas studied. In the Detroit, Michigan, area, one geographic cluster of shorter-than-expected breast cancer survival was identified (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.60). An additional area where survival was longer than expected approached statistical significance (HR = 0.4; P = 0.056). In the Atlanta, Georgia, area, one cluster of shorter- (HR = 1.81) and one cluster of longer-than-expected (HR = 0.72) breast cancer survival were identified. Stage at diagnosis and census-tract poverty (and patient's race in Atlanta) explained the geographic variation in breast cancer survival. No geographic clusters were identified in the 3 other SEER programs. Interventions to reduce late-stage breast cancer, focusing on areas of high poverty and targeting African Americans, may reduce disparities in breast cancer survival in the Detroit and Atlanta areas.

  18. The relationship between annual survival rate and migration distance in mallards: an examination of the time-allocation hypothesis for the evolution of migration

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hestbeck, J.B.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

    1992-01-01

    Predictions of the time-allocation hypothesis were tested with several a posteriori analyses of banding data for the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos). The time-allocation hypothesis states that the critical difference between resident and migrant birds is their allocation of time to reproduction on the breeding grounds and survival on the nonbreeding grounds. Residents have higher reproduction and migrants have higher survival. Survival and recovery rates were estimated by standard band-recovery methods for banding reference areas in the central United States and central Canada. A production-rate index was computed for each reference area with data from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service May Breeding Population Survey and July Production Survey. An analysis of covariance was used to test for the effects of migration distance and time period (decade) on survival, recovery, and production rates. Differences in migration chronology were tested by comparing direct-recovery distributions for different populations during the fall migration. Differences in winter locations were tested by comparing distributions of direct recoveries reported during December and January. A strong positive relationship was found between survival rate, and migration distance for 3 of the 4 age and sex classes. A weak negative relationship was found between recovery rate and migration distance. No relationship was found between production rate and migration distance. During the fall migration, birds from the northern breeding populations were located north of birds from the southern breeding populations. No pattern could be found in the relative locations of breeding and wintering areas. Although our finding that survival rate increased with migration distance was consistent with the time-allocation hypothesis, our results on migration chronology and location of wintering areas were not consistent with the mechanism underlying the time-allocation hypothesis. Neither this analysis nor other recent

  19. Applying a forensic actuarial assessment (the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide) to nonforensic patients.

    PubMed

    Harris, Grant T; Rice, Marnie E; Camilleri, Joseph A

    2004-09-01

    The actuarial Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) was developed for male offenders where it has shown excellent replicability in many new forensic samples using officially recorded outcomes. Clinicians also make decisions, however, about the risk of interpersonal violence posed by nonforensic psychiatric patients of both sexes. Could an actuarial risk assessment developed for male forensic populations be used for a broader clientele? We modified the VRAG to permit evaluation using data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study that included nonforensic male and female patients and primarily self-reported violence. The modified VRAG yielded a large effect size in the prediction of dichotomous postdischarge severe violence over 20 and 50 weeks. Accuracy of VRAG predictions was unrelated to sex. The results provide evidence about the robustness of comprehensive actuarial risk assessments and the generality of the personal factors that underlie violent behavior.

  20. Effects of uranium uptake on transcriptional responses, histological structures and survival rate of the crayfish Procambarus clarkii.

    PubMed

    Al Kaddissi, Simone; Legeay, Alexia; Gonzalez, Patrice; Floriani, Magali; Camilleri, Virginie; Gilbin, Rodolphe; Simon, Olivier

    2011-10-01

    This work aims to investigate the accumulation levels and effects (transcriptional responses, histopathology and survival rate) associated with a wide range of dissolved uranium (U) concentrations (0, 0.03, 0.6, 4 and 8 mg/L of U) on adult male crayfish Procambarus clarkii during 4 (T4) and 10 (T10) days of exposure. The follow-up of the crayfish mortality showed that P. clarkii was highly resistant to U. Increasing waterborne U concentrations led to increasing bioaccumulation in key crayfish organs and increasing histological damages. U distribution in tissues was also evaluated using transmission electron microscopy and showed the presence of a detoxified form of U in the gill's epithelium in the shape of flakes. Expression levels of mitochondrial genes (cox1, atp6 and 12S gene) and genes involved in oxidative stress (sod(Mn) and mt) were examined together with the housekeeping gene 18S. atp6 and mt genes of P. clarkii were cloned and sequenced before analysis. Significant correlations were observed between U bioaccumulation and the down-regulation of both cox1 and sod(Mn) genes. This work provides a first U toxicogenomic and histopathological pattern of P. clarkii, identify U biomarkers and associate gene expression endpoints to accumulation levels. It also provides new insights into the mechanisms involved in U stress.

  1. Reversible Disassembly of the Actin Cytoskeleton Improves the Survival Rate and Developmental Competence of Cryopreserved Mouse Oocytes

    PubMed Central

    Hosu, Basarab G.; Mullen, Steven F.; Critser, John K.; Forgacs, Gabor

    2008-01-01

    Effective cryopreservation of oocytes is critically needed in many areas of human reproductive medicine and basic science, such as stem cell research. Currently, oocyte cryopreservation has a low success rate. The goal of this study was to understand the mechanisms associated with oocyte cryopreservation through biophysical means using a mouse model. Specifically, we experimentally investigated the biomechanical properties of the ooplasm prior and after cryopreservation as well as the consequences of reversible dismantling of the F-actin network in mouse oocytes prior to freezing. The study was complemented with the evaluation of post-thaw developmental competence of oocytes after in vitro fertilization. Our results show that the freezing-thawing process markedly alters the physiological viscoelastic properties of the actin cytoskeleton. The reversible depolymerization of the F-actin network prior to freezing preserves normal ooplasm viscoelastic properties, results in high post-thaw survival and significantly improves developmental competence. These findings provide new information on the biophysical characteristics of mammalian oocytes, identify a pathophysiological mechanism underlying cryodamage and suggest a novel cryopreservation method. PMID:18665248

  2. Computed Tomography-Guided High-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Safety, Efficacy, and Effect on Survival

    SciTech Connect

    Mohnike, Konrad; Wieners, Gero; Schwartz, Franziska; Seidensticker, Max; Pech, Maciej; Ruehl, Ricarda; Wust, Peter; Lopez-Haenninen, Enrique; Gademann, Guenther; Peters, Nils; Berg, Thomas; Malfertheiner, Peter; Ricke, Jens

    2010-09-01

    Purpose: To determine the saftety and efficacy of computed tomography (CT)-guided brachytherapy in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods and Materials: A total of 83 patients were recruited, presenting with 140 HCC- lesions. Treatment was performed by CT-guided high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy with an iridium-192 source. The primary endpoint was time to progression; secondary endpoints included local tumor control and overall survival (OS). A matched-pair analysis with patients not receiving brachytherapy was performed. Match criteria included the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program (CLIP) score, alpha-fetoprotein, presence, and extent of multifocal disease. For statistical analysis, Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression were performed. Results: Mean and median cumulative TTP for all patients (n = 75) were 17.7 and 10.4 months. Five local recurrences were observed. The OS after inclusion reached median times of 19.4 months (all patients), 46.3 months (CLIP score, 0), 20.6 months (CLIP score, 1) 12.7 months, (CLIP score, 2), and 8.3 months (CLIP score, {>=}3). The 1- and 3-year OS were 94% and 65% (CLIP score, 0), 69% and 12% (CLIP score, 1), and 48% and 19% (CLIP score, 2), respectively. Nine complications requiring intervention were encountered in 124 interventions. Matched-pair analysis revealed a significantly longer OS for patients undergoing CT-guided brachytherapy. Conclusion: Based on our results the study treatment could be safely performed. The study treatment had a beneficial effect on OS in patients with advanced HCC, with respect to (and depending on) the CLIP score and compared with OS in a historical control group. A high rate of local control was also observed, regardless of applied dose in a range of 15 to 25 Gy.

  3. Effects of hydroperiod duration on survival, developmental rate, and size at metamorphosis in boreal chorus frog tadpoles (Pseudacris maculata)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amburgey, Staci; Funk, W. Chris; Murphy, Melanie; Muths, Erin

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the relationship between climate-driven habitat conditions and survival is key to preserving biodiversity in the face of rapid climate change. Hydroperiod—the length of time water is in a wetland—is a critical limiting habitat variable for amphibians as larvae must metamorphose before ponds dry. Changes in precipitation and temperature patterns are affecting hydroperiod globally, but the impact of these changes on amphibian persistence is poorly understood. We studied the responses of Boreal Chorus Frog (Pseudacris maculata) tadpoles to simulated hydroperiods (i.e., water level reductions) in the laboratory using individuals collected from ponds spanning a range of natural hydroperiods (Colorado Front Range, USA). To assess the effects of experimental hydroperiod reduction, we measured mortality, time to metamorphosis, and size at metamorphosis. We found that tadpoles grew at rates reflecting the hydroperiods of their native ponds, regardless of experimental treatment. Tadpoles from permanent ponds metamorphosed faster than those from ephemeral ponds across all experimental treatments, a pattern which may represent a predation selection gradient or countergradient variation in developmental rates. Size at metamorphosis did not vary across experimental treatments. Mortality was low overall but varied with pond of origin. Our results suggest that adaptation to local hydroperiod and/or predation and temperature conditions is important in P. maculata. Moreover, the lack of a plastic response to reduced hydroperiods suggests that P. maculata may not be able to metamorphose quickly enough to escape drying ponds. These results have important implications for amphibian persistence in ponds predicted to dry more quickly due to rapid climate change.

  4. Route-Specific Passage Proportions and Survival Rates for Fish Passing through John Day Dam, The Dalles Dam, and Bonneville Dam in 2010 and 2011

    SciTech Connect

    Ploskey, Gene R.; Weiland, Mark A.; Carlson, Thomas J.

    2012-06-04

    This report fulfills a request of the U.S. Army Engineer District, Portland, Oregon, to produce an interim report of estimates of route-specific fish passage proportions and survival rates for lower Columbia River dams in 2010 and 2011. The estimates are needed to update the Compass Model for the Columbia River Treaty and the new Biological Opinion before detail technical reports are published in late 2012. This report tabulates route-specific fish-passage proportions and survival rates for steelhead and Chinook salmon smolts passing through various sampled routes at John Day Dam, The Dalles Dam, and Bonneville Dam in 2010 and 2011. Results were compiled from analyses of data acquired in spring 2010 and 2011 studies that were specifically designed to estimate dam-passage and forebay-to-tailrace survival rates, travel time metrics, and spill passage efficiency, as stipulated by the 2008 Federal Columbia River Power System Biological Opinion and the Columbia Basin Fish Accords. The study designs allowed for estimation of route-specific fish passage proportions and survival rates as well as estimation of forebay-passage survival, all of which are summarized herein.

  5. Childhood cancer survival in Finland (1953-2010): a nation-wide population-based study.

    PubMed

    Madanat-Harjuoja, L M; Pokhrel, A; Kivivuori, S M; Saarinen-Pihkala, U M

    2014-11-01

    Population based survival studies are critical in monitoring changes in anticancer therapy, evaluating effectiveness of new treatments as well as identifying possibilities for further improvement. The previous report on cancer survival in Finland covered patients diagnosed in 1953-1995. Data on survival in the European and Nordic pediatric populations have been published with follow-up ending in 2002. We describe population-based survival of childhood cancer patients (n = 8270, age 0-14 years) in Finland overall and by disease category with follow-up extending from 1953 to 2010 and focusing on the modern treatment era. Data were collected from the Finnish Cancer Registry. Age-standardised observed survival proportions (rates) were calculated using the actuarial (or life-table) method. Trends in observed survival rates were studied over six diagnostic periods: 1953-1960, 1961-1970, 1971-1980, 1981-1990, 1991-2000 and 2001-2010. The overall 5-year survival reached 82.1% (95% CI 80.0-84.2) in the most recent period. In most diagnostic categories, the biggest leap in survival was seen between 1961-1970 and 1981-1990, after which slight improvements occurred between 1981-1990 and 1991-2000, with no significant increase thereafter. In analyses by diagnostic group, positive trends in survival over the last three decades were seen for leukemia (p = 0.000), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (p = 0.002) and CNS tumours (p = 0.02). Although survival of childhood cancer patients overall has significantly improved from 1953 to 2000, improvement thereafter has been marginal. Future treatment efforts should be directed at bone tumours, soft-tissue sarcoma, neuroblastoma and malignant brain tumours as well as high-risk leukemia.

  6. Evaluation of annual survival and mortality rates and longevity of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) at the United States Navy Marine Mammal Program from 2004 through 2013.

    PubMed

    Venn-Watson, Stephanie K; Jensen, Eric D; Smith, Cynthia R; Xitco, Mark; Ridgway, Sam H

    2015-04-15

    Objective-To evaluate annual survival and mortality rates and the longevity of a managed population of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus). Design-Retrospective cohort study. Animals-103 bottlenose dolphins at the US Navy Marine Mammal Program (MMP). Procedures-Population age structures, annual survival and crude mortality rates, and median age at death for dolphins > 30 days old were determined from 2004 through 2013. Results-During 2004 through 2013, the annual survival rates for MMP dolphins ranged from 0.98 to 1.0, and the annual crude mortality rates ranged from 0% to 5%, with a mean of 2.7%. The median age at death was 30.1 years from 2004 through 2008 and increased to 32 years from 2009 through 2013. The maximum age for a dolphin in the study was 52 years. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-Results indicated that the annual mortality rates were low and survival rates were high for dolphins in the MMP from 2004 through 2013 and that the median age at death for MMP dolphins during that time was over 10 years greater than that reported in free-ranging dolphins. These findings were likely attributable to the continually improving care and husbandry of managed dolphin populations.

  7. Monitoring Actuarial Present Values of Term Life Insurance By a Statistical Process Control Chart

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hafidz Omar, M.

    2015-06-01

    Tracking performance of life insurance or similar insurance policy using standard statistical process control chart is complex because of many factors. In this work, we present the difficulty in doing so. However, with some modifications of the SPC charting framework, the difficulty can be manageable to the actuaries. So, we propose monitoring a simpler but natural actuarial quantity that is typically found in recursion formulas of reserves, profit testing, as well as present values. We shared some simulation results for the monitoring process. Additionally, some advantages of doing so is discussed.

  8. Improved survival with neoadjuvant therapy and resection for adenocarcinoma of the esophagus.

    PubMed Central

    Stewart, J R; Hoff, S J; Johnson, D H; Murray, M J; Butler, D R; Elkins, C C; Sharp, K W; Merrill, W H; Sawyers, J L

    1993-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study sought to determine the impact of preoperative chemotherapy and radiation therapy (neoadjuvant therapy) followed by resection in patients with adenocarcinoma of the esophagus. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Long-term survival in patients with carcinoma of the esophagus has been poor. An increase in the incidence of adenocarcinoma of the esophagus has been reported recently. METHODS: Fifty-eight patients with biopsy-proven adenocarcinoma of the esophagus treated at this institution from January 1951 through February 1993 were studied. Since 1989, 24 patients were entered prospectively into a multimodality treatment protocol consisting of preoperative cisplatin, 5-fluorouracil (5-FU), and leucovorin with or without etoposide, and concomitant mediastinal radiation (30 Gy). Patients were re-evaluated and offered resection. RESULTS: There were no deaths related to neoadjuvant therapy and toxicity was minimal. Before multimodality therapy was used, the operative mortality rate was 19% (3 of 16 patients). With multimodality therapy, there have been no operative deaths (0 of 23 patients). The median survival time in patients treated before multimodality therapy was 8 months and has yet to be reached for those treated with the neoadjuvant regimen (> 26 months, p < 0.0001). The actuarial survival rate at 24 months was 15% before multimodality therapy and 76% with multimodality therapy. No difference in survival was noted in neoadjuvant protocols with or without etoposide (p = 0.827). CONCLUSIONS: Multimodality therapy with preoperative chemotherapy and radiation therapy followed by resection appears to offer a survival advantage to patients with adenocarcinoma of the esophagus. PMID:8215648

  9. Active Smoking May Negatively Affect Response Rate, Progression-Free Survival, and Overall Survival of Patients With Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Treated With Sunitinib

    PubMed Central

    Keizman, Daniel; Gottfried, Maya; Ish-Shalom, Maya; Maimon, Natalie; Peer, Avivit; Neumann, Avivit; Hammers, Hans; Eisenberger, Mario A.; Sinibaldi, Victoria; Pili, Roberto; Hayat, Henry; Kovel, Svetlana; Sella, Avishay; Boursi, Ben; Weitzen, Rony; Mermershtain, Wilmosh; Rouvinov, Keren; Berger, Raanan; Carducci, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    Background. Obesity, smoking, hypertension, and diabetes are risk factors for renal cell carcinoma development. Their presence has been associated with a worse outcome in various cancers. We sought to determine their association with outcome of sunitinib treatment in metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC). Methods. An international multicenter retrospective study of sunitinib-treated mRCC patients was performed. Multivariate analyses were performed to determine the association between outcome and the pretreatment status of smoking, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, and other known prognostic factors. Results. Between 2004 and 2013, 278 mRCC patients were treated with sunitinib: 59 were active smokers, 67 were obese, 73 were diabetic, and 165 had pretreatment hypertension. Median progression-free survival (PFS) was 9 months, and overall survival (OS) was 22 months. Factors associated with PFS were smoking status (past and active smokers: hazard ratio [HR]: 1.17, p = .39; never smokers: HR: 2.94, p < .0001), non-clear cell histology (HR: 1.62, p = .011), pretreatment neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio >3 (HR: 3.51, p < .0001), use of angiotensin system inhibitors (HR: 0.63, p = .01), sunitinib dose reduction or treatment interruption (HR: 0.72, p = .045), and Heng risk (good and intermediate risk: HR: 1.07, p = .77; poor risk: HR: 1.87, p = .046). Factors associated with OS were smoking status (past and active smokers: HR: 1.25, p = .29; never smokers: HR: 2.7, p < .0001), pretreatment neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio >3 (HR: 2.95, p < .0001), and sunitinib-induced hypertension (HR: 0.57, p = .002). Conclusion. Active smoking may negatively affect the PFS and OS of sunitinib-treated mRCC. Clinicians should consider advising patients to quit smoking at initiation of sunitinib treatment for mRCC. PMID:24309979

  10. 77 FR 12577 - Department of Defense (DoD) Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries; Federal...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-03-01

    ... of the Secretary Department of Defense (DoD) Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries... that the following Federal advisory committee meeting of the DoD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care... Medicare- Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries meeting or make an oral presentation or submit...

  11. 5 CFR 831.663 - Actuarial reduction in annuity of retirees who make post-retirement elections to provide a...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... reduction under paragraph (c) of this section. (e) Termination of the reduction. (1) The reduction under... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Actuarial reduction in annuity of... Actuarial reduction in annuity of retirees who make post-retirement elections to provide a current...

  12. Factors influencing coastal cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) seasonal survival rates: A spatially continuous approach within stream networks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Berger, A.M.; Gresswell, R.E.

    2009-01-01

    Mark-recapture methods were used to examine watershed-scale survival of coastal cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) from two headwater stream networks. A total of 1725 individuals (???100 mm, fork length) were individually marked and monitored seasonally over a 3-year period. Differences in survival were compared among spatial (stream segment, subwatershed, and watershed) and temporal (season and year) analytical scales, and the effects of abiotic (discharge, temperature, and cover) and biotic (length, growth, condition, density, movement, and relative fish abundance) factors were evaluated. Seasonal survival was consistently lowest and least variable (years combined) during autumn (16 September - 15 December), and evidence suggested that survival was negatively associated with periods of low stream discharge. In addition, relatively low (-) and high (+) water temperatures, fish length (-), and boulder cover (+) were weakly associated with survival. Seasonal abiotic conditions affected the adult cutthroat trout population in these watersheds, and low-discharge periods (e.g., autumn) were annual survival bottlenecks. Results emphasize the importance of watershed-scale processes to the understanding of population-level survival.

  13. Severe Septic Patients with Mitochondrial DNA Haplogroup JT Show Higher Survival Rates: A Prospective, Multicenter, Observational Study

    PubMed Central

    Martín, María M.; López-Gallardo, Esther; Solé-Violán, Jordi; Blanquer, José; Labarta, Lorenzo; Díaz, César; Borreguero-León, Juan María; Jiménez, Alejandro; Montoya, Julio; Ruiz-Pesini, Eduardo

    2013-01-01

    Objective In a previous cohort study (n=96), we found an association between mitochondrial (mt) DNA haplogroup JT and increased survival of severe septic patients, after controlling for age and serum lactic acid levels. The aim of this research was to increase the predictive accuracy and to control for more confounder variables in a larger cohort (n=196) of severe septic patients, to confirm whether mtDNA haplogroup JT influences short and medium-term survival in these patients. Methods We conducted a prospective, multicenter, observational study in six Spanish Intensive Care Units. We determined 30-day and 6-month survival and mtDNA haplogroup in this second cohort of 196 patients and in the global cohort (first and second cohorts combined) with 292 severe septic patients. Multiple logistic regression and Cox regression analyses were used to test for the association of mtDNA haplogroups JT with survival at 30-days and 6-months, controlling for age, sex, serum interleukin-6 levels and SOFA score. Results Logistic and Cox regression analyses showed no differences in 30-day and 6-month survival between patients with mtDNA haplogroup JT and other haplogroups in the first cohort (n=96). In the second cohort (n=196), these analyses showed a trend to higher 30-day and 6-month survival in those with haplogroup JT. In the global cohort (n=292), logistic and Cox regression analyses showed higher 30-day and 6-month survival for haplogroup JT. There were no significant differences between J and T sub-haplogroups in 30-day and 6-month survival. Conclusions The global cohort study (first and second cohorts combined), the largest to date reporting on mtDNA haplogroups in septic patients, confirmed that haplogroup JT patients showed increased 30-day and 6-month survival. This finding may be due to single nucleotide polymorphism defining the whole haplogroup JT and not separately for J or T sub-haplogroups. PMID:24069186

  14. Effects of egg yolk and cooling rate on the survival of refrigerated red deer (Cervus elaphus hispanicus) epididymal spermatozoa.

    PubMed

    Fernández-Santos, M R; Esteso, M C; Soler, A J; Montoro, V; Garde, J J

    2006-04-01

    Egg yolk is a common component to sperm refrigeration for most of the deer species, the role of which is to protect sperm membranes against cold shock. In addition, there have been many studies of conservation of ejaculated semen from stags, but few have been reported for epididymal spermatozoa. This work was designed to investigate the combined effects of cooling rates (slow: 0.23 degrees C/min vs rapid: 4.2 degrees C/min) from room temperature to 5 degrees C, and egg-yolk concentration (0, 5 or 20%) in the extender on the survival of Iberian red deer epididymal spermatozoa refrigerated at 5 degrees C. Heterospermic sperm samples were diluted to a final sperm concentration approximately 400x10(6) sperm/ml with a Tris-citrate-fructose (TCF)-egg-yolk diluent. Sperm quality was in vitro judged by microscopic assessments of individual sperm motility [sperm motility index (SMI)], and of plasma membrane (hypo-osmotic swelling test) and acrosome (NAR) integrities. Our results first showed that the presence of egg yolk in the extender significantly improves (p=0.01) the viability and sperm motility after sperm dilution. In addition, acrosome and plasma membrane integrities post-refrigeration did not differ significantly between cooling procedures; however, the SMI differed significantly between cooling procedures (slow: 46.6% vs rapid: 50.0%; p=0.01). Our results also showed that sperm quality was significantly (p<0.01) affected by the combined effects of egg-yolk concentration and cooling procedure, being rapid cooling with 20% of egg yolk the most suitable combination for epididymal sperm refrigeration. In conclusion, egg-yolk improved red deer epididymal spermatozoa characteristics after dilution. Rapid cooling protocol using TCF with 20% egg-yolk significantly improved sperm motility of red deer epididymal spermatozoa after cooling.

  15. Hydrophobic Surfaces of Spacecraft Components Enhance the Aggregation of Microorganisms and May Lead to Higher Survival Rates on Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuerger, A. C.; Kern, R. G.

    2003-07-01

    The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of surface characteristics of several spacecraft materials on the survival of Bacillus subtilis spores under simulated martian conditions.

  16. The effects of ambient temperature and mixing time of glass ionomer cement material on the survival rate of proximal ART restorations in primary molars

    PubMed Central

    Kemoli, Arthur M

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Temperature fluctuations and material mixing times are likely to affect the consistency and integrity of the material mixture, and hence the restoration made out of it. The purpose of the present study was to determine the influence of the ambient temperature and the mixing time of glass ionomer cement (GIC) restorative material on the survival rate of proximal atraumatic restorative treatment (ART) restorations placed in primary molars. Materials and Methods: A total of 804 restorations were placed in the primary molars of 6-8-year-olds using the ART approach. The restorations were then followed for a period of 2 years and evaluated at given intervals. The data collected were analyzed using SPSS computer statistical program, and the results tested and compared using the Chi-square, Kaplan Meier survival analysis and Cox Proportional hazard statistical tests. Results: The cumulative survival rate of the restorations dropped from the initial 94.4% to 30.8% at the end of 2 years. The higher survival rate of the restorations was associated with the experienced operators and assistants when using the rubber dam isolation method. However, there was no statistically significant difference in the survival rate of the restorations when related to the room temperature and the mixing time of the GIC materials used in spite of the variations in the temperature recoded and the methods used in mixing the materials. Conclusion: The ambient temperature and mixing time of GIC did not have a significant effect on the survival of the proximal ART restorations. PMID:24808692

  17. Hydrophobic Surfaces of Spacecraft Components Enhance the Aggregation of Microorganisms and May Lead to Higher Survival Rates on Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schuerger, A. C.; Kern, R. G.

    2003-01-01

    In order to minimize the forward contamination of Mars, spacecraft are assembled under clean-room conditions that often require several procedures to clean and sterilize components. Surface characteristics of spacecraft materials may contribute to microbial survival by protecting spores from sterilizing agents, including UV irradiation on the surface of Mars. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of surface characteristics of several spacecraft materials on the survival of Bacillus subtilis spores under simulated Martian conditions.

  18. Linking reproduction and survival can improve model estimates of vital rates derived from limited time-series counts of pinnipeds and other species.

    PubMed

    Battaile, Brian C; Trites, Andrew W

    2013-01-01

    We propose a method to model the physiological link between somatic survival and reproductive output that reduces the number of parameters that need to be estimated by models designed to determine combinations of birth and death rates that produce historic counts of animal populations. We applied our Reproduction and Somatic Survival Linked (RSSL) method to the population counts of three species of North Pacific pinnipeds (harbor seals, Phoca vitulina richardii (Gray, 1864); northern fur seals, Callorhinus ursinus (L., 1758); and Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus (Schreber, 1776))--and found our model outperformed traditional models when fitting vital rates to common types of limited datasets, such as those from counts of pups and adults. However, our model did not perform as well when these basic counts of animals were augmented with additional observations of ratios of juveniles to total non-pups. In this case, the failure of the ratios to improve model performance may indicate that the relationship between survival and reproduction is redefined or disassociated as populations change over time or that the ratio of juveniles to total non-pups is not a meaningful index of vital rates. Overall, our RSSL models show advantages to linking survival and reproduction within models to estimate the vital rates of pinnipeds and other species that have limited time-series of counts.

  19. Academic Attributes of College Freshmen that Lead to Success in Actuarial Studies in a Business College

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Richard Manning; Schumacher, Phyllis

    2006-01-01

    The authors studied beginning undergraduate actuarial concentrators in a business college. They identified four variables (math Scholastic Aptitude Test [SAT] score, verbal SAT score, percentile rank in high school graduating class, and percentage score on a college mathematics placement exam) that were available for entering college students that…

  20. Validation of a Systems-Actuarial Computer Process for Multidimensional Classification of Child Psychopathology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDermott, Paul A.; Hale, Robert L.

    1982-01-01

    Tested diagnostic classifications of child psychopathology produced by a computerized technique known as multidimensional actuarial classification (MAC), against the criterion of expert psychological opinion. Experts' agreement with MAC was significant for all classification areas, as was MAC's agreement with the experts held as a conjoint…

  1. An Actuarial Model for Selecting Participants for a Special Medical Education Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walker-Bartnick, Leslie; And Others

    An actuarial model applied to the selection process of a special medical school program at the University of Maryland School of Medicine was tested. The 77 students in the study sample were admitted to the university's Fifth Pathway Program, which is designed for U.S. citizens who completed their medical school training, except for internship and…

  2. The effect of framing actuarial risk probabilities on involuntary civil commitment decisions.

    PubMed

    Scurich, Nicholas; John, Richard S

    2011-04-01

    Despite a proliferation of actuarial risk assessment instruments, empirical research on the communication of violence risk is scant and there is virtually no research on the consumption of actuarial risk assessment. Using a 2 × 3 Latin Square factorial design, this experiment tested whether decision-makers are sensitive to varying levels of risk expressed probabilistically and whether the framing of actuarial risk probabilities is consequential for commitment decisions. Consistent with research on attribute framing, in which describing an attribute in terms of its complement leads to different conclusions, this experiment found that the way actuarial risk estimates are framed leads to disparate commitment decisions. For example, risk framed as 26% probability of violence generally led decision-makers to authorize commitment, whereas the same risk framed in the complement, a 74% probability of no violence, generally led decision-makers to release. This result was most pronounced for moderate risk levels. Implications for the risk communication format debate, forensic practice and research are discussed.

  3. From group data to useful probabilities: the relevance of actuarial risk assessment in individual instances.

    PubMed

    Mossman, Douglas

    2015-03-01

    Probability plays a ubiquitous role in decision-making through a process in which we use data from groups of past outcomes to make inferences about new situations. Yet in recent years, many forensic mental health professionals have become persuaded that overly wide confidence intervals render actuarial risk assessment instruments virtually useless in individual assessments. If this were true, the mathematical properties of probabilistic judgments would preclude forensic clinicians from applying group-based findings about risk to individuals. As a consequence, actuarially based risk estimates might be barred from use in legal proceedings. Using a fictional scenario, I seek to show how group data have an obvious application to individual decisions. I also explain how misunderstanding the aims of risk assessment has led to mistakes about how, when, and why group data apply to individual instances. Although actuarially based statements about individuals' risk have many pitfalls, confidence intervals pose no barrier to using actuarial tools derived from group data to improve decision-making about individual instances.

  4. Pattern Analysis of an Actuarial Strategy for Computerized Diagnosis of Childhood Exceptionality.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hale, Robert L.; McDermott, Paul A.

    1984-01-01

    The Multidimensional Actuarial Classification system, which consists of routines and decision making procedures applied to weighting of standardized psychometric, observational, and interview data, was used to classify 200 children (6-16 years old) referred for psychological evaluation. Seven distinct patterns emerged, supporting the approach's…

  5. Combined detection of the expression of Nm23-H1 and p53 is correlated with survival rates of patients with stage II and III colorectal cancer

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Yinying; Li, Yi; Zhao, Xiaoai; Dong, Danfeng; Tang, Chunhui; Li, Enxiao; Geng, Qianqian

    2017-01-01

    Molecular tumor markers hold considerable promise for accurately predicting the recurrence and progression of colorectal cancer (CRC) in patients. However, in the majority of cases, single marker analysis has been found to have low accuracy, and is of little practical use in clinical practice. The present study investigated the prognostic value of the combined detection of the protein expression of metastasis suppressor 23-H1 (Nm23-H1) and p53 using immunohistochemical analysis, and the mRNA expression levels were analyzed using reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction in 110 cases of stage II and III CRC. The results revealed that the expression levels of Nm23-H1 in CRC tissues were lower, compared with those in normal tissues (χ2=18.249; P<0.001), and the protein expression levels of p53 were higher in the CRC tissues (χ2=23.940; P<0.001); although the mRNA expression levels of Nm23-H1 and p53 presented with the same trend. The protein expression of Nm23-H1 was correlated with lymph node metastases (χ2=11.847; P=0.001) and pathological patterns (χ2=6.911; P=0.032). However, it did not correlate with patient gender or age, or with tumor World Health Organization classification or invasive depth (P>0.05). No significant correlation was observed between the expression of p53 and clinicopathological features (P>0.05). Patients with CRC with Nm23-H1(+)/p53(−) tumors had increased survival rates, with a five-year overall survival rate of 83.8% and a five-year disease-free survival rate of 70.2%. The five-year overall survival rates in other study cohorts were lower, compared with the Nm23-H1(+)/p53(−) group (P<0.0125), and this was the same for the five-year disease-free survival rate (P<0.0125). In conclusion, the present study demonstrated that the combined detection of the protein expression of Nm23-H1 and p53 was associated with the long term survival rates of patients with stage II and III CRC; and this may offer potential for use as a

  6. The RFC1 80G>A, among Common One-Carbon Polymorphisms, Relates to Survival Rate According to DNA Global Methylation in Primary Liver Cancers

    PubMed Central

    Moruzzi, Sara; Udali, Silvia; Ruzzenente, Andrea; Guglielmi, Alfredo; Guarini, Patrizia; Martinelli, Nicola; Conci, Simone; Mazzi, Filippo; Pattini, Patrizia; Tammen, Stephanie A.; Olivieri, Oliviero; Pizzolo, Francesca; Choi, Sang-Woon

    2016-01-01

    Polymorphisms within one-carbon metabolism genes have been largely studied in relation to cancer risk for the function of this pathway in nucleotide synthesis and DNA methylation. Aims of this study were to explore the possible link among several common functional gene polymorphisms within one-carbon metabolism and survival rate in primary liver cancers, i.e., hepatocellular carcinoma and cholangiocarcinoma, and to assess the additional effect of global DNA methylation on survival rate and mortality risk. Forty-seven primary liver cancer patients were genotyped for ten polymorphisms: DHFR 19bp ins/del, TS 2rpt-3rpt, MTHFD1 1958G>A, MTHFR 677C>T, MTR 2756A>G, MTRR 66A>G, RFC1 80G>A, SHMT1 1420C>T, BHMT 716 A>G, TC II 776C>G. Methylation was determined in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) DNA as methylcytosine (mCyt) content using LC/MS/MS. Among the polymorphisms analysed, the RFC1 80G>A (rs1051266) influenced the survival rate in primary liver cancers. The RFC1 80AA was associated to a significantly reduced survival rate (22.2%) as compared to both GG and GA genotypes (61.5% and 76% respectively, p = 0.005). When the cancer patients were stratified according to the mCyt median value as high (>5.34%) or low (≤5.34%), the concomitant presence of AA genotype and low mCyt level led to a significantly worse survival rate as compared to the G allele carriership (p<0.0001) with a higher Hazard Ratio (HR = 6.62, p = 0.001). The subjects carrying the AA genotype in association with high mCyt did not show a significant difference in survival rate as compared with the G allele carriers (p = 0.919). The RFC1 80G>A polymorphism influenced the survival rate, and the presence of RFC1 80AA genotype with low global methylation in PBMCs DNA was associated with poorer prognosis and higher mortality risk, therefore highlighting novel molecular signatures potentially helpful to define prognostic markers for primary liver cancers. PMID:27936032

  7. Influence of Ketotifen, Cromolyn Sodium, and Compound 48/80 on the survival rates after intestinal ischemia reperfusion injury in rats

    PubMed Central

    Zi-qing, Hei; Xiao-liang, Gan; Pin-jie, Huang; Jing, Wei; Ning, Shen; Wan-ling, Gao

    2008-01-01

    Background Mast cells were associated with intestinal ischemia-reperfusion injury, the study was to observe the influence of Ketotifen, Cromolyn Sdium(CS), and Compound 48/80(CP) on the survival rates on the third day after intestinal ischemia-reperfusion injury in rats. Methods 120 healthy Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly divided into 5 groups, Sham-operated group (group S), model group (group M), group K, group C and group CP. Intestinal damage was triggered by clamping the superior mesenteric artery for 75 minutes, group K, C, and CP were treated with kotifen 1 mg·kg-1, CS 50 mg·kg-1, and CP 0.75 mg·kg-1 i.v. at 5 min before reperfusion and once daily for three days following reperfusion respectively. Survival rate in each group was recorded during the three days after reperfusion. All the surviving rats were killed for determining the concentration of serum glutamic-oxaloacetic transaminase(AST), glutamic pyruvic transaminase(ALT), the ratio of AST compare ALT(S/L), total protein(TP), albumin(ALB), globulin(GLB), the ratio of ALB compare GLB(A/G), phosphocreatine kinase(CK), lactate dehydrogenase(LDH), urea nitrogen(BUN) and creatinine(CRE) at the 3rd day after reperfusion. And ultrastructure of IMMC, Chiu's score, lung histology, IMMC counts, the levels of TNF-α, IL-1β, IL-6 and IL-10 of the small intestine were detected at the same time. Results Intestinal ischemia-reperfusion injury reduced the survival rate. The concentrations of TP, ALB and level of IL-10 in intestine in group M decreased significantly while the concentrations of S/L, LDH and the levels of IL-6 and TNF-α in intestine increased significantly compared with group S (P < 0.05). Treatment with Ketotifen and CS increased the survival rate compared with group M (P < 0.05), attenuated the down-regulation or up-regulation of the above index (P < 0.05). Treatment with CP decreased the survival rate on the 3rd day after reperfusion compared with group M(P < 0.05). Group K and C had better

  8. Comparing the survival rate of juvenile Chinook salmon migrating through hydropower systems using injectable and surgical acoustic transmitters.

    PubMed

    Deng, Z D; Martinez, J J; Li, H; Harnish, R A; Woodley, C M; Hughes, J A; Li, X; Fu, T; Lu, J; McMichael, G A; Weiland, M A; Eppard, M B; Skalski, J R; Townsend, R L

    2017-02-21

    Acoustic telemetry is one of the primary technologies for studying the behavior and survival of fishes throughout the world. The size and performance of the transmitter are key limiting factors. The newly developed injectable transmitter is the first acoustic transmitter that can be implanted via injection instead of surgery. A two-part field study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the injectable transmitter and its effect on the survival of implanted fish. The injectable transmitter performed well and similarly to the proceeding generation of commercially-available JSATS transmitters tested concurrently. Snake River subyearling Chinook salmon smolts implanted with the injectable transmitter had a higher survival probability from release to each of eleven downstream detection arrays, because reach-specific survival estimates were significantly higher for the injectable group in three of the eleven reaches examined. Overall, the injectable group had a 0.263 (SE = 0.017) survival probability over the entire 500 km study area compared to 0.199 (0.012) for the surgically implanted group. The reduction in size and ability to implant the new transmitter via injection has reduced the tag or tagging effect bias associated with studying small fishes. The information gathered with this new technology is helping to evaluate the impacts of dams on fishes.

  9. Comparing the survival rate of juvenile Chinook salmon migrating through hydropower systems using injectable and surgical acoustic transmitters

    PubMed Central

    Deng, Z. D.; Martinez, J. J.; Li, H.; Harnish, R. A.; Woodley, C. M.; Hughes, J. A.; Li, X.; Fu, T.; Lu, J.; McMichael, G. A.; Weiland, M. A.; Eppard, M. B.; Skalski, J. R.; Townsend, R. L.

    2017-01-01

    Acoustic telemetry is one of the primary technologies for studying the behavior and survival of fishes throughout the world. The size and performance of the transmitter are key limiting factors. The newly developed injectable transmitter is the first acoustic transmitter that can be implanted via injection instead of surgery. A two-part field study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the injectable transmitter and its effect on the survival of implanted fish. The injectable transmitter performed well and similarly to the proceeding generation of commercially-available JSATS transmitters tested concurrently. Snake River subyearling Chinook salmon smolts implanted with the injectable transmitter had a higher survival probability from release to each of eleven downstream detection arrays, because reach-specific survival estimates were significantly higher for the injectable group in three of the eleven reaches examined. Overall, the injectable group had a 0.263 (SE = 0.017) survival probability over the entire 500 km study area compared to 0.199 (0.012) for the surgically implanted group. The reduction in size and ability to implant the new transmitter via injection has reduced the tag or tagging effect bias associated with studying small fishes. The information gathered with this new technology is helping to evaluate the impacts of dams on fishes. PMID:28220850

  10. Comparing the survival rate of juvenile Chinook salmon migrating through hydropower systems using injectable and surgical acoustic transmitters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Z. D.; Martinez, J. J.; Li, H.; Harnish, R. A.; Woodley, C. M.; Hughes, J. A.; Li, X.; Fu, T.; Lu, J.; McMichael, G. A.; Weiland, M. A.; Eppard, M. B.; Skalski, J. R.; Townsend, R. L.

    2017-02-01

    Acoustic telemetry is one of the primary technologies for studying the behavior and survival of fishes throughout the world. The size and performance of the transmitter are key limiting factors. The newly developed injectable transmitter is the first acoustic transmitter that can be implanted via injection instead of surgery. A two-part field study was conducted to evaluate the performance of the injectable transmitter and its effect on the survival of implanted fish. The injectable transmitter performed well and similarly to the proceeding generation of commercially-available JSATS transmitters tested concurrently. Snake River subyearling Chinook salmon smolts implanted with the injectable transmitter had a higher survival probability from release to each of eleven downstream detection arrays, because reach-specific survival estimates were significantly higher for the injectable group in three of the eleven reaches examined. Overall, the injectable group had a 0.263 (SE = 0.017) survival probability over the entire 500 km study area compared to 0.199 (0.012) for the surgically implanted group. The reduction in size and ability to implant the new transmitter via injection has reduced the tag or tagging effect bias associated with studying small fishes. The information gathered with this new technology is helping to evaluate the impacts of dams on fishes.

  11. Comparative Survival [Rate] Study (CSS) of Hatchery PIT-tagged Chinook; Migration Years 1996-1998 Mark/Recapture Activities, 2000 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Berggren, Thomas J.; Basham, Larry R.

    2000-10-01

    The Comparative Survival Rate Study (CSS) is a multi-year program of the fishery agencies and tribes to measure the smolt-to-adult survival rates of hatchery spring and summer chinook at major production hatcheries in the Snake River basin and at selected hatcheries in the lower Columbia River. The CSS also compares the smolt-to-adult survival rates for Snake River basin chinook that were transported versus those that migrated in-river to below Bonneville Dam. Estimates of smolt-to-adult survival rates will be made both from Lower Granite Dam back to Lower Granite Dam (upriver stocks) and from the hatchery back to the hatchery (upriver and downriver stocks). This status report covers the first three migration years, 1996 to 1998, of the study. Study fish were implanted with a PIT (Passive Integrated Transponder) tag which allows unique identification of individual fish. Beginning in 1997, a predetermined proportion of the PIT tagged study fish in the collection/bypass channel at the transportation sites, such as Lower Granite and Little Goose dams, was purposely routed to the raceways for transportation and the rest was routed back to the river. Two categories of in-river migrating fish are used in this study. The in-river group most representative of the non-tagged fish are fish that migrate past Lower Granite, Little Goose, and Lower Monumental dams undetected in the bypass systems. This is because all non-tagged fish collected at these three dams are currently being transported. The other in-river group contains those fish remaining in-river below Lower Monumental Dam that had previously been detected at one or more dams. The number of fish starting at Lower Granite dam that are destined to one of these two in-river groups must be estimated. The Jolly-Seber capture-recapture methodology was used for that purpose. Adult (including jacks) study fish returning to the hatcheries in the Snake River basin were sampled at the Lower Granite Dam adult trap. There the PIT

  12. Does the use of vaginal-implant transmitters affect neonate survival rate of white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Swanson, C.C.; Jenks, J.A.; DePerno, C.S.; Klaver, R.W.; Osborn, R.G.; Tardiff, J.A.

    2008-01-01

    We compared survival of neonate white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus captured using vaginal-implant transmitters (VITs) and traditional ground searches to determine if capture method affects neonate survival. During winter 2003, 14 adult female radio-collared deer were fitted with VITs to aid in the spring capture of neonates; neonates were captured using VITs (N = 14) and traditional ground searches (N = 7). Of the VITs, seven (50%) resulted in the location of birth sites and the capture of 14 neonates. However, seven (50%) VITs were prematurely expelled prior to parturition. Predation accounted for seven neonate mortalities, and of these, five were neonates captured using VITs. During summer 2003, survival for neonates captured using VITs one. two, and three months post capture was 0.76 (SE = 0.05; N = 14). 0.64 (SE = 0.07; N = 11) and 0.64 (SE = 0.08; N = 9), respectively. Neonate survival one, two and three months post capture for neonates captured using ground searches was 0.71 (SE = 0.11 N = 7), 0.71 (SE = 0.15; N = 5) and 0.71 (SE = 0.15; N = 5), respectively. Although 71% of neonates that died were captured <24 hours after birth using VITs, survival did not differ between capture methods. Therefore, use of VITs to capture neonate white-tailed deer did not influence neonate survival. VITs enabled us to capture neonates in dense habitats which would have been difficult to locate using traditional ground searches. ?? Wildlife Biology (2008).

  13. Prognostic factors of 28 days survival rate in patients with a first acute myocardial infarction based on gender in Isfahan, Iran (2000-2009)

    PubMed Central

    Mohammadian, Mahdi; Hosseini, Shidokht; Salehiniya, Hamid; Sadeghi, Masoumeh; Sarrafzadegan, Nizal; Roohafza, Hamid Reza; Khazaei, Salman; Soltani, Shahin; Sarrafkia, Ali; Golshahi, Jafar; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND Determinant prognostic factors of 28 days survival rate in patients with a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI) based on gender in teen year’s period in Isfahan, Iran, was the aim of this study. METHODS This study is a prospective hospital-based study that consisted, all patients with AMI admitted to all hospitals (private and universal hospitals) in Isfahan and Najafabad (Iran) during 2000-2009. To determinant the prognostic factors of 28 days survival rate in patients based on gender, analysis conducted separately for male and female. In analysis, we use of t-test, log Rank tests, Kaplan-Meier method, and univariate and multivariate Cox regression model. RESULTS Short-term (28 days) survival rate was 92.5% in male and 86.7% in female (P < 0.001). The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of death for age group 80 years and older was 12.7 [95% confidence interval (CI): 5.14-31.3] in male and 8.78 (95% CI: 1.2-63.1) in female. HR for acute transmural MI of the unspecified site in male was 8.9 (95% CI: 4.68-16.97) and in female 9.33 (95% CI: 4.42-19.7). HR for receive of streptokinase in male was 1.11 (95% CI: 0.94-1.31) and in female was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.56-0.84). CONCLUSION Short-term survival rate in male was a higher than female. In male age, anatomic location of MI and hospital status and in female streptokinase use and anatomic location of MI was the most important prognostic factors of survival in-patient with AMI in Isfahan. PMID:26862341

  14. Secondary monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance is frequently associated with high response rate and superior survival in patients with plasma cell dyscrasias.

    PubMed

    Zou, Dehui; An, Gang; Zhu, Guoqing; Wang, Jinhong; Shi, Lihui; Meng, Hengxing; Xu, Yan; Sui, Weiwei; Deng, Shuhui; Zhan, Fenghuang; Qiu, Lugui

    2014-03-01

    Secondary monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is a special phenomenon that occurs during the treatment of multiple myeloma (MM). The incidence, biological characteristics, and prognostic value of secondary MGUS in patients with MM remain undefined. We proceed with a retrospective systematic review of serum immunofixation electrophoresis studies performed in 438 cases of patients with plasma cell dyscrasias, including 409 cases of newly diagnosed MM and 29 cases of primary plasma cell leukemia. Secondary MGUS was more common in patients with myeloma who had undergone stem cell transplantation than in those who had not (17 [29.8%] of 57 versus 5 [1.4%] of 352, P < .001). The clinical parameters and cytogenetic characteristics in patients with or without secondary MGUS were comparable. The complete response rates in patients with or without secondary MGUS were 81.8% and 21.8% respectively (P < .01). For the cohort as a whole, secondary MGUS was associated with significantly prolonged progression-free survival (median, 52.0 months versus 22.5 months; P = .002) and overall survival (median, not reached versus 35.0 months; P < .001). The presence of secondary MGUS retained independent prognostic value with a moderate impact on overall survival (hazard ratio .128 [95% confidence interval .018 to .922]; P = .041) in the multivariate Cox regression model. However, when analysis was restricted to patients undergoing stem cell transplantation, no statistical differences in progression-free survival and overall survival were found. In conclusion, we observe that secondary MGUS was frequently observed in MM patients after transplantation and conferred a survival prolongation. The favorable survival in patients with secondary MGUS may be explained by beneficial effect from myeloablative therapy.

  15. Repeated freeze-thaw cycles reduce the survival rate of osteocytes in bone-tendon constructs without affecting the mechanical properties of tendons.

    PubMed

    Suto, Kaori; Urabe, Ken; Naruse, Kouji; Uchida, Kentaro; Matsuura, Terumasa; Mikuni-Takagaki, Yuko; Suto, Mitsutoshi; Nemoto, Noriko; Kamiya, Kentaro; Itoman, Moritoshi

    2012-03-01

    Frozen bone-patellar tendon bone allografts are useful in anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction as the freezing procedure kills tissue cells, thereby reducing immunogenicity of the grafts. However, a small portion of cells in human femoral heads treated by standard bone-bank freezing procedures survive, thus limiting the effectiveness of allografts. Here, we characterized the survival rates and mechanisms of cells isolated from rat bones and tendons that were subjected to freeze-thaw treatments, and evaluated the influence of these treatments on the mechanical properties of tendons. After a single freeze-thaw cycle, most cells isolated from frozen bone appeared morphologically as osteocytes and expressed both osteoblast- and osteocyte-related genes. Transmission electron microscopic observation of frozen cells using freeze-substitution revealed that a small number of osteocytes maintained large nuclei with intact double membranes, indicating that these osteocytes in bone matrix were resistant to ice crystal formation. We found that tendon cells were completely killed by a single freeze-thaw cycle, whereas bone cells exhibited a relatively high survival rate, although survival was significantly reduced after three freeze-thaw cycles. In patella tendons, the ultimate stress, Young's modulus, and strain at failure showed no significant differences between untreated tendons and those subjected to five freeze-thaw cycles. In conclusion, we identified that cells surviving after freeze-thaw treatment of rat bones were predominantly osteocytes. We propose that repeated freeze-thaw cycles could be applied for processing bone-tendon constructs prior to grafting as the treatment did not affect the mechanical property of tendons and drastically reduced surviving osteocytes, thereby potentially decreasing allograft immunogenecity.

  16. CD1d expression in renal cell carcinoma is associated with higher relapse rates, poorer cancer-specific and overall survival

    PubMed Central

    Chong, Tsung Wen; Goh, Fera Yiqian; Sim, Mei Yi; Huang, Hong Hong; Thike, Daw Aye Aye; Lim, Weng Khong; Teh, Bin Tean; Tan, Puay Hoon

    2015-01-01

    Aims We hypothesised that CD1d expression in renal cell carcinoma (RCC) may play a role in modifying the host immune response. Our aims were to investigate the expression of CD1d and to correlate this with histopathology and clinical outcomes in a cohort study of patients with RCC. Methods Gene expression and tissue microarray studies on a panel of RCC tissue were performed. Clinicopathological correlation was analysed using χ2/Fisher's exact test. Relapse-free survival, cancer-specific survival and overall survival were calculated for both CD1d high and low expressors. Survival outcomes were estimated with the Kaplan–Meier method and compared using Cox regression analysis. Results Gene expression microarray showed significant expression of CD1d in RCC versus normal renal tissue. By immunohistochemistry, we found that CD1d expression significantly associated with tumour stage/grade, higher relapse rates, poorer cancer-specific and overall survival. Conclusions CD1d expression on RCC correlated with aggressive disease and poorer clinical outcomes. PMID:25477528

  17. [Estimation of mortality from census survival rates and consequent estimates of birth and death rates: 1975-1980 in Korea case].

    PubMed

    Kwon, H Y; Kim, K S

    1982-07-01

    The rate of natural increase in population between the census in 1975 and 1980 is calculated with total population by sex. An abridged life table, based on the Coale and Demeny life table model, is used. The number of deaths from this life table is calculated by using age specific death rate. According to this number, each crude death rate for both sexes is calculated. The crude birth rate calculation is the difference between the rate of natural increase in population and the crude death rate. Each computed rate is as follows: natural increase rate: 1.98% (male), 1.83% (female), 1.91% (total); crude death rate: .547% (male), .546% (female), .547% (total); crude birth rate: 2.535% (male), 2.340% (female), 2.448% (total). In evaluating the crude death rate and crude birth rate result, the crude death rate is lower than expected. Crude death rate from the whole country fertility survey taken in 1974 is 7/1000 people. According to the whole country fertility survey data taken in 1976, the infant mortality rate in 1974 and 1975 are at 26% and 27.5% respectively, which is considered low. This low death rate in recent times is due to the decrease in the infant mortality rate and the decrease in death of the aged population. Calculated crude birth rate is 25.6/1000 persons for males, and 24/1000 for females. After the whole country fertility survey conducted in 1976, the crude birth rate is estimated at 24/1000 persons and crude birth rate in 1980 was estimated at 23.4 persons. Results are in line with the calculations of the Third Social Economic Development 5-year plan which was drafted by working staff in the population sector including the population professionals in the Bureau of Statistics of the Economic Planning Board.

  18. Mesothelioma patients with germline BAP1 mutations have 7-fold improved long-term survival.

    PubMed

    Baumann, Francine; Flores, Erin; Napolitano, Andrea; Kanodia, Shreya; Taioli, Emanuela; Pass, Harvey; Yang, Haining; Carbone, Michele

    2015-01-01

    BRCA1-associated protein-1 (BAP1) mutations cause a new cancer syndrome, with a high rate of malignant mesothelioma (MM). Here, we tested the hypothesis that MM associated with germline BAP1 mutations has a better prognosis compared with sporadic MM. We compared survival among germline BAP1 mutation MM patients with that of all MM (N = 10 556) recorded in the United States Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data from 1973 to 2010. We identified 23 MM patients--11 alive--with germline BAP1 mutations and available data on survival. Ten patients had peritoneal MM, ten pleural MM and three MM in both locations. Thirteen patients had one or more malignancies in addition to MM. Actuarial median survival for the MM patients with germline BAP1 mutations was 5 years, as compared with <1 year for the median survival in the United States SEER MM group. Five-year survival was 47%, 95% confidence interval (24-67%), as compared with 6.7% (6.2-7.3%) in the control SEER group. Analysis of the pooled cohort of germline BAP1 mutation MM showed that patients with peritoneal MM (median survival of 10 years, P = 0.0571), or with a second malignancy in addition to MM (median survival of 10 years, P = 0.0716), survived for a longer time compared with patients who only had pleural MM, or MM patients without a second malignancy, respectively. In conclusion, we found that MM patients with germline BAP1 mutations have an overall 7-fold increased long-term survival, independently of sex and age. Appropriate genetic counseling and clinical management should be considered for MM patients who are also BAP1 mutation carriers.

  19. Positive expression of p53, c-erbB2 and MRP proteins is correlated with survival rates of NSCLC patients.

    PubMed

    Xu, Yujin; Wang, Liancong; Zheng, Xiao; Liu, Guan; Wang, Yuezhen; Lai, Xiaojing; Li, Jianqiang

    2013-05-01

    The incidence of lung cancer is one of the leading causes of mortality. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic and predictive importance of p53, c-erbB2 and multidrug resistance proteins (MRP) expression and its correlation with clinicopathological characteristics of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Expression of p53, c-erbB2 and MRP proteins in 152 tumor samples from resected primary NSCLCs was detected by immunohistochemical staining. The correlation of proteins, survival and clinicopathological characteristics was investigated in 152 patients undergoing potentially curative surgery. The positive rates of p53, c-erbB2 and MRP expression were 53.9 (82/152), 44.1 (67/152) and 43.4% (66/152), respectively. Overall survival rates of patients were markedly correlated with the overexpression of p53, c-erbB2 and MRP proteins. One, 2- and 3-year survival rates of patients exhibiting a positive expression of these proteins were 72.6, 54.8 and 32.2%, respectively. These rates were lower compared with those of patients with a negative expression of these proteins (92.1, 78.5 and 63.4%) (P=0.02, 0.01 or 0.00, respectively). Results of Cox's regression analysis showed that c-erbB2 expression and cell differentiation were independent prognostic factors in patients with NSCLC. These findings suggest that the positive expression of p53, c-erbB2 and MRP proteins is correlated with the survival rates of NSCLC patients. Detection of positive p53, c-erbB2 and MRP expression may be a useful predictive indicator of prognosis. Positive c-erbB2 expression is an independent prognostic factor, with a potential to be used as a predictive indicator of chemotherapy efficacy in NSCLC patients.

  20. Evaluation of the Correlation between CD44, Tumor Prognosis and the 5-Year Survival Rate in Patients with Oral Tongue SCC

    PubMed Central

    Kaboodkhani, Reza; Karimi, Ebrahim; Khorsandi Ashtiani, Mohammad Taghi; Kowkabi, Safoura; Firouzifar, Mohammad Reza; Yazdani, Farzad; Yazdani, Nasrin

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: 90% of the tumors in the head and neck are squamous-cell carcinomas (HNSCC), which have overall 5- year survival rate between 50% -60%. CD44 has been shown to be associated with the prognosis. Materials and Methods: Biopsy specimens of 51 patients with oral tongue SCC were evaluated by Immunohistochemistry (IHC) for the CD44 antibody. Results: There was no significant correlation between CD44 and survival (P=0.77), age (P=0.4), CD44 and lymph node metastasis (P=0.87), sex (P=0.947), smoking (P=0.287) and tumor size (P=0.813). However, there was significant correlation between smoking and survival. Conclusion: There are widespread discrepancies among the findings in the literature regarding the prognosis of CD44 expression in OCSCC. Our study shows that the expression of CD44 is not a marker of aggressive behavior in oral tongue SCC. Consequently, CD44 cannot be considered as handy tool to establish the tumor behavior, prognosis and 5- year survival rate of these tumors. PMID:28008391

  1. Estimating movement and survival rates of a small saltwater fish using autonomous antenna receiver arrays and passive integrated transponder tags

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rudershausen, Paul J.; Buckel, Jeffery A.; Dubreuil, Todd; O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Hightower, Joseph E.; Poland, Steven J.; Letcher, Benjamin H.

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of small (12.5 mm long) passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and custom detection antennas for obtaining fine-scale movement and demographic data of mummichog Fundulus heteroclitus in a salt marsh creek. Apparent survival and detection probability were estimated using a Cormack Jolly Seber (CJS) model fitted to detection data collected by an array of 3 vertical antennas from November 2010 to March 2011 and by a single horizontal antenna from April to August 2011. Movement of mummichogs was monitored during the period when the array of vertical antennas was used. Antenna performance was examined in situ using tags placed in wooden dowels (drones) and in live mummichogs. Of the 44 tagged fish, 42 were resighted over the 9 mo monitoring period. The in situ detection probabilities of the drone and live mummichogs were high (~80-100%) when the ambient water depth was less than ~0.8 m. Upstream and downstream movement of mummichogs was related to hourly water depth and direction of tidal current in a way that maximized time periods over which mummichogs utilized the intertidal vegetated marsh. Apparent survival was lower during periods of colder water temperatures in December 2010 and early January 2011 (median estimate of daily apparent survival = 0.979) than during other periods of the study (median estimate of daily apparent survival = 0.992). During late fall and winter, temperature had a positive effect on the CJS detection probability of a tagged mummichog, likely due to greater fish activity over warmer periods. During the spring and summer, this pattern reversed possibly due to mummichogs having reduced activity during the hottest periods. This study demonstrates the utility of PIT tags and continuously operating autonomous detection systems for tracking fish at fine temporal scales, and improving estimates of demographic parameters in salt marsh creeks that are difficult or impractical to sample with active fishing gear.

  2. Comparative survival rates of human-derived probiotic Lactobacillus paracasei and L. salivarius strains during heat treatment and spray drying.

    PubMed

    Gardiner, G E; O'Sullivan, E; Kelly, J; Auty, M A; Fitzgerald, G F; Collins, J K; Ross, R P; Stanton, C

    2000-06-01

    Spray drying of skim milk was evaluated as a means of preserving Lactobacillus paracasei NFBC 338 and Lactobacillus salivarius UCC 118, which are human-derived strains with probiotic potential. Our initial experiments revealed that NFBC 338 is considerably more heat resistant in 20% (wt/vol) skim milk than UCC 118 is; the comparable decimal reduction times were 11.1 and 1.1 min, respectively, at 59 degrees C. An air outlet temperature of 80 to 85 degrees C was optimal for spray drying; these conditions resulted in powders with moisture contents of 4.1 to 4.2% and viable counts of 3.2 x 10(9) CFU/g for NFBC 338 and 5.2 x 10(7) CFU/g for UCC 118. Thus, L. paracasei NFBC 338 survived better than L. salivarius UCC 118 during spray drying; similar results were obtained when we used confocal scanning laser microscopy and LIVE/DEAD BacLight viability staining. In addition, confocal scanning laser microscopy revealed that the probiotic lactobacilli were located primarily in the powder particles. Although both spray-dried cultures appeared to be stressed, as shown by increased sensitivity to NaCl, bacteriocin production by UCC 118 was not affected by the process, nor was the activity of the bacteriocin peptide. The level of survival of NFBC 338 remained constant at approximately 1 x 10(9) CFU/g during 2 months of powder storage at 4 degrees C, while a decline in the level of survival of approximately 1 log (from 7.2 x 10(7) to 9.5 x 10(6) CFU/g) was observed for UCC 118 stored under the same conditions. However, survival of both Lactobacillus strains during powder storage was inversely related to the storage temperature. Our data demonstrate that spray drying may be a cost-effective way to produce large quantities of some probiotic cultures.

  3. Comparative Survival Rates of Human-Derived Probiotic Lactobacillus paracasei and L. salivarius Strains during Heat Treatment and Spray Drying

    PubMed Central

    Gardiner, G. E.; O'Sullivan, E.; Kelly, J.; Auty, M. A. E.; Fitzgerald, G. F.; Collins, J. K.; Ross, R. P.; Stanton, C.

    2000-01-01

    Spray drying of skim milk was evaluated as a means of preserving Lactobacillus paracasei NFBC 338 and Lactobacillus salivarius UCC 118, which are human-derived strains with probiotic potential. Our initial experiments revealed that NFBC 338 is considerably more heat resistant in 20% (wt/vol) skim milk than UCC 118 is; the comparable decimal reduction times were 11.1 and 1.1 min, respectively, at 59°C. An air outlet temperature of 80 to 85°C was optimal for spray drying; these conditions resulted in powders with moisture contents of 4.1 to 4.2% and viable counts of 3.2 × 109 CFU/g for NFBC 338 and 5.2 × 107 CFU/g for UCC 118. Thus, L. paracasei NFBC 338 survived better than L. salivarius UCC 118 during spray drying; similar results were obtained when we used confocal scanning laser microscopy and LIVE/DEAD BacLight viability staining. In addition, confocal scanning laser microscopy revealed that the probiotic lactobacilli were located primarily in the powder particles. Although both spray-dried cultures appeared to be stressed, as shown by increased sensitivity to NaCl, bacteriocin production by UCC 118 was not affected by the process, nor was the activity of the bacteriocin peptide. The level of survival of NFBC 338 remained constant at ∼1 × 109 CFU/g during 2 months of powder storage at 4°C, while a decline in the level of survival of approximately 1 log (from 7.2 × 107 to 9.5 × 106 CFU/g) was observed for UCC 118 stored under the same conditions. However, survival of both Lactobacillus strains during powder storage was inversely related to the storage temperature. Our data demonstrate that spray drying may be a cost-effective way to produce large quantities of some probiotic cultures. PMID:10831444

  4. Genotypic variation in spike fertility traits and ovary size as determinants of floret and grain survival rate in wheat

    PubMed Central

    Guo, Zifeng; Slafer, Gustavo A; Schnurbusch, Thorsten

    2016-01-01

    Spike fertility traits are critical attributes for grain yield in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Here, we examine the genotypic variation in three important traits: maximum number of floret primordia, number of fertile florets, and number of grains. We determine their relationship in determining spike fertility in 30 genotypes grown under two contrasting conditions: field and greenhouse. The maximum number of floret primordia per spikelet (MFS), fertile florets per spikelet (FFS), and number of grains per spikelet (GS) not only exhibited large genotypic variation in both growth conditions and across all spikelet positions studied, but also displayed moderate levels of heritability. FFS was closely associated with floret survival and only weakly related to MFS. We also found that the post-anthesis process of grain set/abortion was important in determining genotypic variation in GS; an increase in GS was mainly associated with improved grain survival. Ovary size at anthesis was associated with both floret survival (pre-anthesis) and grain survival (post-anthesis), and was thus believed to ‘connect’ the two traits. In this work, proximal florets (i.e. the first three florets from the base of a spikelet: F1, F2, and F3) produced fertile florets and set grains in most cases. The ovary size of more distal florets (F4 and beyond) seemed to act as a decisive factor for grain setting and effectively reflected pre-anthesis floret development. In both growth conditions, GS positively correlated with ovary size of florets in the distal position (F4), suggesting that assimilates allocated to distal florets may play a critical role in regulating grain set. PMID:27279276

  5. Nasopharyngeal cancer: a review of 1605 patients treated radically with cobalt 60. [5- and 10-year survival rates and complications of radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, S.C.

    1980-04-01

    A retrospective study was performed on 1605 patients with histologically proven and radically treated nasopharyngeal carcinoma. All were followed for a minimum of five years; 833 patients had a minimum follow-up period of ten years. Treatment results were reviewed according to: (1) size of primary tumor; (2) base of skull invasion; (3) cranial nerve involvement; (4) cervical node metastases; and (5) distant spread. An appropriate staging system was developed that reflected these prognostic factors. The evidence presented indicates that in this series of patients, base of skull involvement was less ominous than cranial nerve involvement. Unilteral lymph node involvement carried a better prognosis than bilateral neck nodes, this was the poorest sign of all since it predicted distant metastases. The average 5-year survival rate for 1605 patients in all stages, was 529/1605(32.1%); the 10-year survival rate for 833 patients in all stages was 20.2%.

  6. Robust estimates of environmental effects on population vital rates: an integrated capture-recapture model of seasonal brook trout growth, survival and movement in a stream network.

    PubMed

    Letcher, Benjamin H; Schueller, Paul; Bassar, Ronald D; Nislow, Keith H; Coombs, Jason A; Sakrejda, Krzysztof; Morrissey, Michael; Sigourney, Douglas B; Whiteley, Andrew R; O'Donnell, Matthew J; Dubreuil, Todd L

    2015-03-01

    Modelling the effects of environmental change on populations is a key challenge for ecologists, particularly as the pace of change increases. Currently, modelling efforts are limited by difficulties in establishing robust relationships between environmental drivers and population responses. We developed an integrated capture-recapture state-space model to estimate the effects of two key environmental drivers (stream flow and temperature) on demographic rates (body growth, movement and survival) using a long-term (11 years), high-resolution (individually tagged, sampled seasonally) data set of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) from four sites in a stream network. Our integrated model provides an effective context within which to estimate environmental driver effects because it takes full advantage of data by estimating (latent) state values for missing observations, because it propagates uncertainty among model components and because it accounts for the major demographic rates and interactions that contribute to annual survival. We found that stream flow and temperature had strong effects on brook trout demography. Some effects, such as reduction in survival associated with low stream flow and high temperature during the summer season, were consistent across sites and age classes, suggesting that they may serve as robust indicators of vulnerability to environmental change. Other survival effects varied across ages, sites and seasons, indicating that flow and temperature may not be the primary drivers of survival in those cases. Flow and temperature also affected body growth rates; these responses were consistent across sites but differed dramatically between age classes and seasons. Finally, we found that tributary and mainstem sites responded differently to variation in flow and temperature. Annual survival (combination of survival and body growth across seasons) was insensitive to body growth and was most sensitive to flow (positive) and temperature (negative

  7. A flexible cure rate model for spatially correlated survival data based on generalized extreme value distribution and Gaussian process priors.

    PubMed

    Li, Dan; Wang, Xia; Dey, Dipak K

    2016-09-01

    Our present work proposes a new survival model in a Bayesian context to analyze right-censored survival data for populations with a surviving fraction, assuming that the log failure time follows a generalized extreme value distribution. Many applications require a more flexible modeling of covariate information than a simple linear or parametric form for all covariate effects. It is also necessary to include the spatial variation in the model, since it is sometimes unexplained by the covariates considered in the analysis. Therefore, the nonlinear covariate effects and the spatial effects are incorporated into the systematic component of our model. Gaussian processes (GPs) provide a natural framework for modeling potentially nonlinear relationship and have recently become extremely powerful in nonlinear regression. Our proposed model adopts a semiparametric Bayesian approach by imposing a GP prior on the nonlinear structure of continuous covariate. With the consideration of data availability and computational complexity, the conditionally autoregressive distribution is placed on the region-specific frailties to handle spatial correlation. The flexibility and gains of our proposed model are illustrated through analyses of simulated data examples as well as a dataset involving a colon cancer clinical trial from the state of Iowa.

  8. Impact of competitor species composition on predicting diameter growth and survival rates of Douglas-fir trees in southwestern Oregon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bravo, Felipe; Hann, D.W.; Maguire, Douglas A.

    2001-01-01

    Mixed conifer and hardwood stands in southwestern Oregon were studied to explore the hypothesis that competition effects on individual-tree growth and survival will differ according to the species comprising the competition measure. Likewise, it was hypothesized that competition measures should extrapolate best if crown-based surrogates are given preference over diameter-based (basal area based) surrogates. Diameter growth and probability of survival were modeled for individual Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) trees growing in pure stands. Alternative models expressing one-sided and two-sided competition as a function of either basal area or crown structure were then applied to other plots in which Douglas-fir was mixed with other conifers and (or) hardwood species. Crown-based variables outperformed basal area based variables as surrogates for one-sided competition in both diameter growth and survival probability, regardless of species composition. In contrast, two-sided competition was best represented by total basal area of competing trees. Surrogates reflecting differences in crown morphology among species relate more closely to the mechanics of competition for light and, hence, facilitate extrapolation to species combinations for which no observations are available.

  9. Accumulation of cytoplasmic Cdk1 is associated with cancer growth and survival rate in epithelial ovarian cancer

    PubMed Central

    Shin, Ha-Yeon; Chung, Joon-Yong; Kang, Eun Suk; Lee, Eun-ju; Kim, Jae-Hoon

    2016-01-01

    Cyclin dependent kinase 1 (Cdk1) have previously reported correlation with cancer growth and a key regulator for cell cycle. Mostly, Cdk1′s function of nucleus for cell cycle is well known to be associated with cancer, but cytoplasmic Cdk1′s traits are not clearly identified, yet. We revealed that tissue microarray blocks of epithelial ovarian cancer (n = 249) showed increased level of cytoplasmic Cdk1 (p < 0.001), but not in nucleus (p = 0.192) of histologic cell type independently. On survival analysis, Cdk1 overexpression conferred a significantly worse prognosis in 5-year overall survival (Log-rank p = 0.028, Hazard ratio = 2.016, 95% CI = 1.097 to 4.635). Also, the expression of Cdk1 was increased in ovarian cancer cell lines and Gene Expression Omnibus datasets. When the expression and activity of Cdk1 were inhibited by si-Cdk1 or RO-3306 which is a potent Cdk1 inhibitor, the growth of ovarian cancer was diminished. Moreover, combined treatment with RO-3306 and cisplatin in ovarian cancer significantly elevated anti-cancer effects than single-agent treatment. In conclusion, cytoplasmic Cdk1 expression which was elevated in ovarian cancer predicts a poor overall survival. The inhibition of Cdk1 expression and activity reduced ovarian cancer growth. PMID:27385216

  10. Physical condition and stress levels during early development reflect feeding rates and predict pre- and post-fledging survival in a nearshore seabird

    PubMed Central

    Lamb, Juliet S.; O'Reilly, Kathleen M.; Jodice, Patrick G. R.

    2016-01-01

    The effects of acute environmental stressors on reproduction in wildlife are often difficult to measure because of the labour and disturbance involved in collecting accurate reproductive data. Stress hormones represent a promising option for assessing the effects of environmental perturbations on altricial young; however, it is necessary first to establish how stress levels are affected by environmental conditions during development and whether elevated stress results in reduced survival and recruitment rates. In birds, the stress hormone corticosterone is deposited in feathers during the entire period of feather growth, making it an integrated measure of background stress levels during development. We tested the utility of feather corticosterone levels in 3- to 4-week-old nestling brown pelicans (Pelecanus occidentalis) for predicting survival rates at both the individual and colony levels. We also assessed the relationship of feather corticosterone to nestling body condition and rates of energy delivery to nestlings. Chicks with higher body condition and lower corticosterone levels were more likely to fledge and to be resighted after fledging, whereas those with lower body condition and higher corticosterone levels were less likely to fledge or be resighted after fledging. Feather corticosterone was also associated with intracolony differences in survival between ground and elevated nest sites. Colony-wide, mean feather corticosterone predicted nest productivity, chick survival and post-fledging dispersal more effectively than did body condition, although these relationships were strongest before fledglings dispersed away from the colony. Both reproductive success and nestling corticosterone were strongly related to nutritional conditions, particularly meal delivery rates. We conclude that feather corticosterone is a powerful predictor of reproductive success and could provide a useful metric for rapidly assessing the effects of changes in environmental

  11. Lemna minor plants chronically exposed to ionising radiation: RNA-seq analysis indicates a dose rate dependent shift from acclimation to survival strategies.

    PubMed

    Van Hoeck, Arne; Horemans, Nele; Nauts, Robin; Van Hees, May; Vandenhove, Hildegarde; Blust, Ronny

    2017-04-01

    Ecotoxicological research provides knowledge on ionising radiation-induced responses in different plant species. However, the sparse data currently available are mainly extracted from acute exposure treatments. To provide a better understanding of environmental exposure scenarios, the response to stress in plants must be followed in more natural relevant chronic conditions. We previously showed morphological and biochemical responses in Lemna minor plants continuously exposed for 7days in a dose-rate dependent manner. In this study responses on molecular (gene expression) and physiological (photosynthetic) level are evaluated in L. minor plants exposed to ionising radiation. To enable this, we examined the gene expression profiles of irradiated L. minor plants by using an RNA-seq approach. The gene expression data reveal indications that L. minor plants exposed at lower dose rates, can tolerate the exposure by triggering acclimation responses. In contrast, at the highest dose rate tested, a high number of genes related to antioxidative defense systems, DNA repair and cell cycle were differentially expressed suggesting that only high dose rates of ionising radiation drive L. minor plants into survival strategies. Notably, the photosynthetic process seems to be unaffected in L. minor plants among the tested dose rates. This study, supported by our earlier work, clearly indicates that plants shift from acclimation responses towards survival responses at increasing dose rates of ionising radiation.

  12. Effects of protectant and rehydration conditions on the survival rate and malolactic fermentation efficiency of freeze-dried Lactobacillus plantarum JH287.

    PubMed

    Lee, Sae-Byuk; Kim, Dong-Hwan; Park, Heui-Dong

    2016-09-01

    In this study, Lactobacillus plantarum JH287 was used as a malolactic fermentation starter in Campbell Early wine production. L. plantarum JH287 was first lyophilized, and the malolactic fermentation potential of freeze-dried L. plantarum JH287 was investigated. Different protective media and rehydration conditions were tested to improve the survival rate of freeze-dried L. plantarum JH287. Optimal protective medium contained 10 % sorbitol and 10 % skim milk. The optimal rehydration condition was a 1-h rehydration time conducted in the same protective media, and the combination of these two methods produced a survival rate of 86.37 %. In addition, a 77.71 % survival rate was achieved using freeze-dried samples that were stored at 4 °C for 2 months. Freeze-dried L. plantarum JH287 and Saccharomyces cerevisiae Fermivin were used to inoculate the Campbell Early grape must to decrease its malic acid content. Using this mixed-fermentation method, wine showed a decrease in malic acid content after 9 days of fermentation. GC-MS analysis detected 15 volatile ester compounds in the wine. A sensory evaluation showed that the taste and aroma of mix-fermented wine were better than those of the control that had not been inoculated with L. plantarum JH287.

  13. The effects of different routes of inulin administration on gut microbiota and survival rate of Indian white shrimp post-larvae (Fenneropenaeus indicus)

    PubMed Central

    Hoseinifar, Seyed Hossein; Zare, Parviz; Kolangi Miandare, Hamed

    2015-01-01

    The present study investigates the effects of different routes of inulin administration as prebiotic on gut microbiota and survival rate of Indian white shrimp post-larvae. Four hundred and fifty Indian white shrimp post-larvae (PL1) were stocked in nine tanks. The tanks were assigned into three treatments: feeding with inulin-treated (110 mg L-1) Artemia nauplii (I-T), feeding with inulin-enriched (110 mg L-1) Artemia nauplii (I-E) and control which repeated triplicates. Feeding trial was performed until PL11 stage and then gut microbiota was studied using culture based method. Also, survival rate was calculated at the end of feeding trial. Our results showed that feeding on inulin enriched or treated Artemia nauplii had no significant effect on total viable culturable autochthonous bacteria and Vibrio spp. levels of the gut microbiota (p > 0.05). However, a remarkable increase of lactic acid bacteria levels (LAB) was observed in I-E treatment (p < 0.05). Administration of inulin enriched Artemia nauplii significantly elevated survival rates of Indian white shrimp post-larvae (p < 0.05). These results encourage administration of prebiotic-enriched Artemia nauplii in post larval stage of Indian white shrimp but determination the mode of action of prebiotic on various aspects of shrimp larviculture merit further research. PMID:26973770

  14. The effects of different routes of inulin administration on gut microbiota and survival rate of Indian white shrimp post-larvae (Fenneropenaeus indicus).

    PubMed

    Hoseinifar, Seyed Hossein; Zare, Parviz; Kolangi Miandare, Hamed

    2015-01-01

    The present study investigates the effects of different routes of inulin administration as prebiotic on gut microbiota and survival rate of Indian white shrimp post-larvae. Four hundred and fifty Indian white shrimp post-larvae (PL1) were stocked in nine tanks. The tanks were assigned into three treatments: feeding with inulin-treated (110 mg L(-1)) Artemia nauplii (I-T), feeding with inulin-enriched (110 mg L(-1)) Artemia nauplii (I-E) and control which repeated triplicates. Feeding trial was performed until PL11 stage and then gut microbiota was studied using culture based method. Also, survival rate was calculated at the end of feeding trial. Our results showed that feeding on inulin enriched or treated Artemia nauplii had no significant effect on total viable culturable autochthonous bacteria and Vibrio spp. levels of the gut microbiota (p > 0.05). However, a remarkable increase of lactic acid bacteria levels (LAB) was observed in I-E treatment (p < 0.05). Administration of inulin enriched Artemia nauplii significantly elevated survival rates of Indian white shrimp post-larvae (p < 0.05). These results encourage administration of prebiotic-enriched Artemia nauplii in post larval stage of Indian white shrimp but determination the mode of action of prebiotic on various aspects of shrimp larviculture merit further research.

  15. Prospective actuarial risk assessment: a comparison of five risk assessment instruments in different sexual offender subtypes.

    PubMed

    Rettenberger, Martin; Matthes, Anna; Boer, Douglas P; Eher, Reinhard

    2010-04-01

    This study examines the predictive validity of the most commonly used risk assessment instruments for sexual offenders: Static-99, Rapid Risk Assessment for Sexual Offense Recidivism, Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide, Sexual Violence Risk-20, and Psychopathy Checklist-Revised in a prospective research design. Although risk assessment is part of a regime leading to various efforts to reduce risk by treatment and aftercare, all instruments show good predictive validity. However, depending on the instrument, recidivism category, and subgroup, the predictive accuracy varies markedly. Furthermore, the authors fail to demonstrate predictive validity for sexual violent reoffences-for the whole sample and for all subgroups. The results, nevertheless, support the utility and predictive validity of actuarial risk assessment complementary to treatment efforts to reduce risk. On the other hand, forensic practitioners have to be aware of the limitations of actuarial risk assessment methods, in particular as regards to variable predictive accuracy for different sexual offender subgroups and reoffence categories.

  16. Actuarial assessment of violence risk in hospital-based partner assault clinics.

    PubMed

    Hilton, N Zoe; Harris, Grant T; Holder, Norah

    2008-12-01

    Hospital-based partner assault clinics are a relatively recent addition to the community response to partner violence. In this study, 66% of 111 women attending hospital clinics for partner assault were physically injured and 43% reported death threats. Few concurrently used other services (shelters or police) and most relied on female friends and relatives for help. Many participants who currently lived with the perpetrator were contemplating leaving but only a third had made plans to do so. Participants faced an unusually high risk of future assault, according to both victim interview using the ODARA actuarial risk assessment and their own perceptions. Findings imply an important role for partner assault clinics and the feasibility of the victim service sector's using the same actuarial risk assessments as the criminal justice system.

  17. Thrown a curve. CMS' actuaries: healthcare spending will continue to increase, despite reform law promises.

    PubMed

    Daly, Rich

    2011-08-01

    While CMS actuaries say the 2010 reform law will not slow the nation's healthcare spending in the coming decade, Mary Grealy, of the Healthcare Leadership Council, says the law "was basically a coverage bill. We just didn't get to the other half, which would be aimed at the cost-drivers in the system." She adds that the healthcare system will not control ongoing steep increases in spending until additional legislation reshapes the dominant public insurance plans.

  18. Prognostic heterogeneity of diastolic abnormalities along left ventricular remodeling continuum according to survival rates and laser polarimetry of blood

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boychuk, T. M.; Ivashchuk, O. I.; Kolomoiets, M. Y.; Mikhaliev, K. O.; Chursina, T. Y.

    2011-09-01

    The results of examination of 35 arterial hypertension and coronary heart disease patients are presented. The clinical, paraclinical and echocardiographic examinations were performed, and the parameters of prognosis (survival) according to Seattle Heart Failure Model, as well as the optical (polarimetric) properties of erythrocytic suspension were determined. The group of patients under examination was stratified by patterns of remodeling of left ventricle (LV). It was determined that increasing of anisotropy of erythrocytic suspension along LV remodeling patterns continuum correlates with aggravation of structural and functional state of LV and is associated with unfavorable prognosis.

  19. Prognostic heterogeneity of diastolic abnormalities along left ventricular remodeling continuum according to survival rates and laser polarimetry of blood

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boychuk, T. M.; Ivashchuk, O. I.; Kolomoiets, M. Y.; Mikhaliev, K. O.; Chursina, T. Y.

    2012-01-01

    The results of examination of 35 arterial hypertension and coronary heart disease patients are presented. The clinical, paraclinical and echocardiographic examinations were performed, and the parameters of prognosis (survival) according to Seattle Heart Failure Model, as well as the optical (polarimetric) properties of erythrocytic suspension were determined. The group of patients under examination was stratified by patterns of remodeling of left ventricle (LV). It was determined that increasing of anisotropy of erythrocytic suspension along LV remodeling patterns continuum correlates with aggravation of structural and functional state of LV and is associated with unfavorable prognosis.

  20. Does elective neck dissection in T1/T2 carcinoma of the oral tongue and floor of the mouth influence recurrence and survival rates?

    PubMed

    Kelner, Natalie; Vartanian, José Guilherme; Pinto, Clóvis Antônio Lopes; Coutinho-Camillo, Cláudia Malheiros; Kowalski, Luiz Paulo

    2014-09-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the results of elective neck dissection compared with observation (control group) in selected cases of early carcinoma of the oral tongue and floor of the mouth. It was a retrospective analysis of 222 patients who had the tumour resected (161 also had elective neck dissection). Occult lymph node metastases were detected in 33/161 (21%), and neck recurrences were diagnosed in 10 of the 61 patients in the control group (16%). Occult lymph node metastases reduced the 5-year disease-specific survival from 90% to 65% (p=0.001) and it was 96% among the controls. The 5-year disease-specific survival was 85% in the group treated by neck dissection and 96% in the observation group (p=0.09). Rigorous follow-up of selected low risk patients is associated with high rates of salvage, and overall survival was similar to the observed survival in patients treated by elective neck dissection. Observation is a reasonable option in the treatment of selected patients.

  1. Comparison of migration rate and survival between radio-tagged and PIT-tagged migrant yearling chinook salmon in the Snake and Columbia rivers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hockersmith, E.E.; Muir, W.D.; Smith, S.G.; Sandford, B.P.; Perry, R.W.; Adams, N.S.; Rondorf, D.W.

    2003-01-01

    A study was conducted to compare the travel times, detection probabilities, and survival of migrant hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha tagged with either gastrically or surgically implanted sham radio tags (with an imbedded passive integrated transponder [PIT] tag) with those of their cohorts tagged only with PIT tags in the Snake and Columbia rivers. Juvenile chinook salmon with gastrically implanted radio tags migrated significantly faster than either surgically radio-tagged or PIT-tagged fish, while migration rates were similar among surgically radio-tagged and PIT-tagged fish. The probabilities of PIT tag detection at downstream dams varied by less than 5% and were not significantly different among the three groups. Survival was similar among treatments for median travel times of less than approximately 6 d (migration distance of 106 km). However, for both gastrically and surgically radio-tagged fish, survival was significantly less than for PIT-tagged fish, for which median travel times exceeded approximately 10 d (migration distance of 225 km). The results of this study support the use of radio tags to estimate the survival of juvenile chinook salmon having a median fork length of approximately 150 mm (range, 127-285 mm) and a median travel time of migration of less than approximately 6 d.

  2. Current obstacles in replicating risk assessment findings: a systematic review of commonly used actuarial instruments.

    PubMed

    Rossegger, Astrid; Gerth, Juliane; Seewald, Katharina; Urbaniok, Frank; Singh, Jay P; Endrass, Jérôme

    2013-01-01

    An actuarial risk assessment instrument can be considered valid if independent investigations using novel samples can replicate the findings of the instrument's development study. In order for a study to qualify as a replication, it has to adhere to the methodological protocol of the development study with respect to key design characteristics, as well as ensuring that manual-recommended guidelines of test administration have been followed. A systematic search was conducted to identify predictive validity studies (N = 84) on three commonly used actuarial instruments: the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG), and the Static-99. Sample (sex, age, criminal history) and design (follow-up, attrition, recidivism) characteristics, as well as markers of assessment integrity (scoring reliability, item omissions, prorating procedure), were extracted from 84 studies comprising 108 samples. None of the replications matched the development study of the instrument they were attempting to cross-validate with respect to key sample and design characteristics. Furthermore none of the replications strictly followed the manual-recommended guidelines for the instruments' administration. Additional replication studies that follow the methodological protocols outlined in actuarial instruments' development studies are needed before claims of generalizability can be made.

  3. Piecewise Geometric Estimation of a Survival Function.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-04-01

    considering a special case of the regres - sion model of Cox (1972). These estimators generally correspond to failure rate function estimators that are step...distribution. 20. ABSTRACT (Continued) The PEGE is consistent and asymptotically normal under conditions more general than those of the model of... actuarial science. The general situation is described as follows. The variable of interest is the lifespan of some unit: the investigator wishes to

  4. Comparative Survival Rate Study (CSS) of Hatchery PIT-tagged Chinook; Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, Annual Report 2002-2003.

    SciTech Connect

    Jonasson, Brian

    2004-02-01

    We PIT-tagged juvenile spring chinook salmon reared at Lookingglass Hatchery in October 2002 as part of the Comparative Survival Rate Study (CSS) for migratory year (MY) 2003. We tagged 20,950 Imnaha stock spring chinook salmon, and after mortality and tag loss, we allowed the remaining 20,904 fish to leave the acclimation pond at our Imnaha River satellite facility beginning 1 April 2003 to begin their seaward migration. The fish remaining in the pond were forced out on 15 April 2003. We tagged 20,820 Catherine Creek stock captive and conventional brood progeny spring chinook salmon, and after mortality and tag loss, we allowed the remaining 20,628 fish to leave the acclimation ponds at our Catherine Creek satellite facility beginning during two acclimation periods. The volitional release for the early acclimation group began 12 March 2003, and all remaining fish were forced out of the ponds on 23 March 2003. The volitional release for the late acclimation group began 31 March 2003, and all remaining fish were forced out of the ponds on 14 April 2003. We estimated survival rates, from release to Lower Granite Dam in MY 2003, for three stocks of hatchery spring chinook salmon tagged at Lookingglass Hatchery to determine their relative migration performance. Survival rates for the Imnaha River, Lostine River, and Catherine Creek stocks were 0.714, 0.557, and 0.350, respectively. We PIT-tagged 20,944 BY 2002 Imnaha River stock and 20,980 BY 2002 Catherine Creek stock captive and conventional brood progeny in October and November 2003 as part of the CSS for MY 2004. From tagging to January 28, 2004, the rates of mortality and tag loss for Imnaha River stock were 0.16% and 0.04%, respectively. Catherine Creek stock, during the same period, had rates of mortality and tag loss of 0.19% and 0.06%, respectively.

  5. In interaction with gender a common CYP3A4 polymorphism may influence the survival rate of chemotherapy for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

    PubMed

    Gézsi, A; Lautner-Csorba, O; Erdélyi, D J; Hullám, G; Antal, P; Semsei, Á F; Kutszegi, N; Hegyi, M; Csordás, K; Kovács, G; Szalai, C

    2015-06-01

    CYP3A4 has an important role in the metabolisms of many drugs used in acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) therapy; still, there are practically no publications about the role of CYP3A4 polymorphisms in ALL pharmacogenomics. We genotyped eight common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the CYP3A4 and CYP3A5 genes in 511 children with ALL and investigated whether they influenced the survival of the patients. We involved additional 127 SNPs in 34 candidate genes and searched for interactions with respect to the survival rates. Significant association between the survival rates and the common rs2246709 SNP in the CYP3A4 gene was observed. The gender of the patients and the rs1076991 in the MTHFD1 gene strongly influenced this effect. We calculated new risk assessments involving the gender-rs2246709 interaction and showed that they significantly outperformed the earlier risk-group assessments at every time point. If this finding is confirmed in other populations, it can have a considerable prognostic significance.

  6. Effects of environmental pH and temperature on embryonic survival capacity and metabolic rates in the smallmouth salamander, Ambystoma texanum

    SciTech Connect

    Punzo, F.

    1983-10-01

    Although the deleterious effects of acid precipitation on forest ecosystems and fisheries have been documented, relatively little information is available on the effects of environmental pH in combination with temperature on the survival capacity and/or physiology of amphibians. Increased acidity resulting from acid precipitation common to the northwestern United States, can lead to increased mortality in the spotted salamander, Ambystoma maculatum. In view of the potentially significant deleterious effects of stressful pH conditions on amphibian survivorship and the relative paucity of data on this subject, the present study was conducted in order to ascertain the combined effects of temperature and pH on embryonic metabolic rates and survival capacity in the smallmouth salamander, Ambystoma texanum Mathes. No previous data on these parameters are available for this species.

  7. [Establishment of full-sib families of Branchiostoma japonicum and the relationship between early development patterns and larvae survival rates].

    PubMed

    Li, Wei-Ye; Wang, Yi-Quan

    2013-10-01

    One general requirement of individual laboratory animals is that they have known genetic backgrounds. However, ensuring such genetic similarity is difficult, and can be facilitated by breeding a full strain for experimentation. To this end, the authors bred 34 full-sib families of amphioxus larvae/embryos. Due to the high mortality of the embryos and larvae, only seven full-sib families of juvenile amphioxus Branchiostoma japonicum were obtained. Among them, the highest and lowest survival ratios were 32.4% and 1.67%, respectively, whereas the shortest metamorphosis and longest larva duration were 24 d and 42 d, respectively. These results demonstrate the feasibility of establishing full-sib families of amphioxus, and provide fundamental data needed for the future breeding of amphioxus strains.

  8. Endocrine MPA enhances the effects of TAC chemotherapy on improvement of prognosis and increase in long-term survival rates for patients with endometrial cancer.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Xiuhong; Wang, L U; Xue, Juan; Li, L I; Zhang, Jing

    2015-09-01

    The aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of taxol, adriamycin and carboplatin (TAC) chemotherapy combined with endocrine medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) therapy for the treatment of patients with endometrial cancer. A retrospective analysis of 124 patients with endometrial cancer was performed by dividing the cohort into an experimental and control group. The 64 patients in the experimental group received TAC and MPA chemotherapy, whereas the 60 patients in the control group were treated with TAC chemotherapy only. Tissue samples scraped from the uterus were used to extract the total proteins and RNAs for the western blot and reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction analyses, respectively. All the patients were followed up for 20-45 months, during which time prognostic data, and one- to three-year survival rates were recorded and compared. The rate of recurrence or metastasis was significantly lower in the experimental group compared with that in the control group (P<0.05) and the three-year survival rate of the experimental group was significantly higher than that of the control group (P<0.05). Furthermore, the mean metastasis-associated 1 (MTA1) protein and RNA expression levels were significantly lower in the experimental group compared with the control group (P<0.05), exhibiting ~30 and ~15% of the levels in the control group, respectively. Therefore, a treatment strategy of TAC chemotherapy combined with endocrine MPA therapy appears to effectively improve the prognosis and increase the long-term survival rates of patients with endometrial cancer. Such an enhancing effect may be mediated by the transcriptional downregulation of MTA1 expression.

  9. Effects of fluctuating flows and a controlled flood on incubation success and early survival rates and growth of age-0 rainbow trout in a large regulated river

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Korman, Josh; Kaplinski, Matthew; Melis, Theodore S.

    2011-01-01

    Hourly fluctuations in flow from Glen Canyon Dam were increased in an attempt to limit the population of nonnative rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in the Colorado River, Arizona, due to concerns about negative effects of nonnative trout on endangered native fishes. Controlled floods have also been conducted to enhance native fish habitat. We estimated that rainbow trout incubation mortality rates resulting from greater fluctuations in flow were 23-49% (2003 and 2004) compared with 5-11% under normal flow fluctuations (2006-2010). Effects of this mortality were apparent in redd excavations but were not seen in hatch date distributions or in the abundance of the age-0 population. Multiple lines of evidence indicated that a controlled flood in March 2008, which was intended to enhance native fish habitat, resulted in a large increase in early survival rates of age-0 rainbow trout. Age-0 abundance in July 2008 was over fourfold higher than expected given the number of viable eggs that produced these fish. A hatch date analysis indicated that early survival rates were much higher for cohorts that hatched about 1 month after the controlled flood (~April 15) relative to those that hatched before this date. The cohorts that were fertilized after the flood were not exposed to high flows and emerged into better-quality habitat with elevated food availability. Interannual differences in age-0 rainbow trout growth based on otolith microstructure supported this hypothesis. It is likely that strong compensation in survival rates shortly after emergence mitigated the impact of incubation losses caused by increases in flow fluctuations. Control of nonnative fish populations will be most effective when additional mortality is applied to older life stages after the majority of density-dependent mortality has occurred. Our study highlights the need to rigorously assess instream flow decisions through the evaluation of population-level responses.

  10. Better management of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest increases survival rate and improves neurological outcome in the Swiss Canton Ticino

    PubMed Central

    Mauri, Romano; Burkart, Roman; Benvenuti, Claudio; Caputo, Maria Luce; Moccetti, Tiziano; Del Bufalo, Alessandro; Gallino, Augusto; Casso, Carlo; Anselmi, Luciano; Cassina, Tiziano; Klersy, Catherine; Auricchio, Angelo

    2016-01-01

    Aim To determine the incidence of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) fulfilling Utstein criteria in the Canton Ticino, Switzerland, the survival rate of OHCA patients and their neurological outcome. Methods and results All OHCAs treated in Canton Ticino between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2014 were followed until either death or hospital discharge. The survival and neurological outcome of those OHCA fulfilling Utstein criteria are reported. A total of 3367 OHCAs occurred in the Canton Ticino over a 10-year period. Resuscitation was attempted in 2298 patients; of those 1492 (65%) were of presumed cardiac origin, 454 fulfilling the Utstein comparator criteria. About 69% [95% confidence interval (CI), 66.6–71.4%] of the patients had a bystander-witnessed arrest; a dispatched cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) steadily and significantly increased from 2005 to 2014. Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest occurred prevalently home (67%), in men (71%) of a mean age of 71 ± 13 years. There were no statistically significant differences either in demographic characteristics of OHCA victims over these years or in presenting rhythm. There was a progressive increase in the survival at discharge from 15% in 2005 to 55% in 2014; overall 96% (95% CI, 93.3–99.9%) of the survivors had a good neurological outcome. Conclusion The significant increase in Utstein comparator survival rates and improved neurological outcome in OHCA victims in Canton Ticino are the result of an effective OHCA management programme which includes large-scale public education, a coordinated fast EMS response, high density of external defibrillators, and advances in clinical interventions for OHCAs. PMID:26346920

  11. The effects of hive types (shield and sword) on wintering ability, survival rates and strength of honeybee colonies (A. mellifera L.) in spring season.

    PubMed

    Yeninar, Halil; Akyol, Etem; Sahinler, Nuray

    2010-03-01

    This study was carried out to determine the effects of shield and sword comb orientation hive types on wintering ability, survival rates (in winter) and population growth of honeybee colonies (A. mellifera anatoliaca) in spring season. In ancient Anatolia beekeeping; honeybee colonies were identified sword and shield (the colonies which build up the combs vertical and horizontal according to positions of the hive entrance) before the uses of top-opened hive with movable frames. Total twenty honeybee colonies, which have similar condition according to queen age, genotype, number of frames covered with adult worker bees, brood areas and food stocks, were used in this study. Average wintering ability of colonies in the shield and sword groups were found to be 98.57% and 69.76%; average survival rates were found to be 100% and 100% in shield and sword group colonies respectively. The average number of frames covered with adult worker bees at mid June in shield and sword group colonies were found to be 15.6 +/- 1.58, 12.00 +/- 1.25 number/colony and the average brood areas were found as 7863.5 +/- 402.9, 5997.0 +/- 373.3 cm(2)/colony respectively. Differences between the group means on wintering ability, sealed brood areas and colony strength were found significant (P < 0.01), but differences on survival rates were not found significant (P > 0.05). The colonies living in shield (horizontal) hives have showed better wintering ability and more colony population than colonies living in sword (vertical) hives.

  12. Decreasing salinity of seawater moderates immune response and increases survival rate of giant groupers post betanodavirus infection.

    PubMed

    Chen, Tz-Shiang; Wu, Yu-Chi; Chi, Shau-Chi

    2016-10-01

    Giant groupers (Epinephelus lanceolatus), an important aquaculture fish in Asia, are attacked by nervous necrosis virus (NNV), belonging to betanodavirus. Environmental salinity can affect fish immunity and physiology. We examined whether decreasing salinity from 30 to 15 ppt during acclimation of groupers could affect survival with NNV infection and the associated factors. Although NNV infection decreased muscle moisture, up-regulated the gene expression of Na(+)-K(+)-2Cl(-) cotransporter isoform 2, and elevated plasma cortisol level in groupers, these factors were not related to the higher mortality of groupers reared at 30-ppt salinity (S30-groupers), compared to 15-ppt reared groupers (S15-groupers). Infected S30-groupers exhibited high leukocyte count and innate immune gene expression level. Moreover, NNV-infected dead S30-groupers showed high IL-1β gene expression level but low NNV load in the brain. The high or excess IL-1β gene expression levels in the brain of NNV-infected S30-groupers may be the factor in high mortality.

  13. Lower survival rate, longevity and fecundity of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) females orally challenged with dengue virus serotype 2.

    PubMed

    Maciel-de-Freitas, R; Koella, J C; Lourenço-de-Oliveira, R

    2011-08-01

    As the pathogenic effects of a parasite on its hosts can strongly influence its epidemiology, we compared the life-histories of dengue virus serotype 2 (DENV-2)-infected and uninfected Aedes aegypti females. Unexposed mosquitoes lived longer than exposed ones, but those infected lived longer than exposed but negative (as assayed by Real-Time quantitative Reverse Transcription PCR [qRT-PCR]) mosquitoes. Infected mosquitoes from a long-established laboratory colony presented more viral RNA copies at death than those from the F1-generation of a field population from Rio de Janeiro. The mortality of infected colony-mosquitoes was independent of the number of viral RNA copies at death, whereas in the field population, longevity decreased with the number of viral RNA copies, suggesting that F1 of field mosquitoes are less tolerant to infection than the laboratory-colony. Infected females had a lower fecundity than controls. F1 of field mosquitoes were more likely to lay eggs than the colony; egg-laying success was strongly affected by mosquito age for both mosquito populations: from 49.28 in the first clutch to 20.7 in the fifth. Overall, DENV-2 reduced Aedes aegypti survival and fecundity, clearly affecting vectorial capacity and consequently transmission intensity.

  14. Beta2-microglobulin is a better predictor of treatment-free survival in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia if adjusted according to glomerular filtration rate.

    PubMed

    Delgado, Julio; Pratt, Guy; Phillips, Neil; Briones, Javier; Fegan, Chris; Nomdedeu, Josep; Pepper, Chris; Aventin, Anna; Ayats, Ramon; Brunet, Salut; Martino, Rodrigo; Valcarcel, David; Milligan, Donald; Sierra, Jorge

    2009-06-01

    Even in the era of newer and sophisticated prognostic markers, beta(2)-microglobulin (B2M) remains a simple but very powerful predictor of treatment-free survival (TFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL). However, B2M levels are heavily influenced by the patient's glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and this study aimed to evaluate whether GFR-adjusted B2M (GFR-B2M) had improved prognostic value compared to unadjusted B2M in a cohort of over 450 consecutive CLL patients from two separate institutions. Multivariate analysis identified a significantly shorter TFS in patients who were ZAP-70 + (P < 0.001), with increased GFR-B2M (P < 0.001), and del(11q) or del(17p) as detected by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH; P < 0.001). When OS was evaluated by multivariate analysis, age 65 years or older (P < 0.001) and poor risk FISH abnormalities (P < 0.001) had a confirmed adverse prognostic impact, but the predictive value of GFR-B2M was lost in the validation analysis. In all survival models, B2M did not attain independent significance unless GFR-B2M was eliminated from the analysis. In conclusion, GFR-B2M is a better predictor of TFS than unadjusted B2M in CLL patients.

  15. Local Response and Impact on Survival After Local Ablation of Liver Metastases From Colorectal Carcinoma by Computed Tomography-Guided High-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Ricke, Jens; Mohnike, Konrad; Pech, Maciej; Seidensticker, Max; Ruehl, Ricarda; Wieners, Gero; Gaffke, Gunnar; Kropf, Siegfried; Felix, Roland; Wust, Peter

    2010-10-01

    Purpose: To determine local tumor control after CT-guided brachytherapy at various dose levels and the prognostic impact of extensive cytoreduction in colorectal liver metastases. Methods and Materials: Seventy-three patients were treated on a single-center prospective trial that was initially designed to be randomized to three dose levels of 15 Gy, 20 Gy, or 25 Gy per lesion, delivered in a single fraction. However, because there was a high rate of cross-over of subjects from higher to lower dose levels, this study is better understood as a prospective trial with three dose levels. No upper size limit for the metastases was applied. We assessed time to local progression, progression-free survival, and overall survival. Results: According to safety constraints cross-over was performed. The final assignment was n = 98, n = 68, and n = 33 in the 15-Gy, 20-Gy, and 25-Gy groups, respectively. Median diameter of the largest tumor lesion in each patient was 5 cm (range, 1-13.5 cm). Estimated mean local recurrence-free survival for all lesions was 34 months (median not reached). The group assigned to 15 Gy after cross-over displayed 34 local recurrences out of 98 lesions; 20 Gy, 15 out of 68 lesions; 25 Gy, 1 out of 33 lesions. The difference between the 25-Gy and the 20-Gy or 15-Gy group was significant (p < 0.05). Repeated local tumor ablations were the most prominent factor for increased survival and dominated additional systemic antitumor treatments. Conclusions: Local tumor control after CT-guided brachytherapy of colorectal liver metastases demonstrated a strong dose dependency. The role of extensive minimally invasive tumor ablation in metastatic colorectal cancer needs to be further established.

  16. Comparison of Survival Rate in Primary Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Among Elderly Patients Treated With Radiofrequency Ablation, Surgery, or Chemotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, Heon; Jin, Gong Yong Han, Young Min; Chung, Gyung Ho; Lee, Yong Chul; Kwon, Keun Sang; Lynch, David

    2012-04-15

    Purpose: We retrospectively compared the survival rate in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with radiofrequency ablation (RFA), surgery, or chemotherapy according to lung cancer staging. Materials and Methods: From 2000 to 2004, 77 NSCLC patients, all of whom had WHO performance status 0-2 and were >60 years old, were enrolled in a cancer registry and retrospectively evaluated. RFA was performed on patients who had medical contraindications to surgery/unsuitability for surgery, such as advanced lung cancer or refusal of surgery. In the RFA group, 40 patients with inoperable NSCLC underwent RFA under computed tomography (CT) guidance. These included 16 patients with stage I to II cancer and 24 patients with stage III to IV cancer who underwent RFA in an adjuvant setting. In the comparison group (n = 37), 13 patients with stage I to II cancer underwent surgery; 18 patients with stage III to IV cancer underwent chemotherapy; and 6 patients with stage III to IV cancer were not actively treated. The survival curves for RFA, surgery, and chemotherapy in these patients were calculated using Kaplan-Meier method. Results: Median survival times for patients treated with (1) surgery alone and (2) RFA alone for stage I to II lung cancer were 33.8 and 28.2 months, respectively (P = 0.426). Median survival times for patients treated with (1) chemotherapy alone and (2) RFA with chemotherapy for stage III to IV cancer were 29 and 42 months, respectively (P = 0.03). Conclusion: RFA can be used as an alternative treatment to surgery for older NSCLC patients with stage I to II inoperable cancer and can play a role as adjuvant therapy with chemotherapy for patients with stage III to IV lung cancer.

  17. An actuarial analysis shows that offering lung cancer screening as an insurance benefit would save lives at relatively low cost.

    PubMed

    Pyenson, Bruce S; Sander, Marcia S; Jiang, Yiding; Kahn, Howard; Mulshine, James L

    2012-04-01

    Lung cancer screening is not established as a public health practice, yet the results of a recent large randomized controlled trial showed that screening with low-dose spiral computed tomography reduces lung cancer mortality. Using actuarial models, this study estimated the costs and benefits of annual lung cancer screening offered as a commercial insurance benefit in the high-risk US population ages 50-64. Assuming current commercial reimbursement rates for treatment, we found that screening would cost about $1 per insured member per month in 2012 dollars. The cost per life-year saved would be below $19,000, an amount that compares favorably with screening for cervical, breast, and colorectal cancers. Our results suggest that commercial insurers should consider lung cancer screening of high-risk individuals to be high-value coverage and provide it as a benefit to people who are at least fifty years old and have a smoking history of thirty pack-years or more. We also believe that payers and patients should demand screening from high-quality, low-cost providers, thus helping set an example of efficient system innovation.

  18. Does Prison Crowding Predict Higher Rates of Substance Use Related Parole Violations? A Recurrent Events Multi-Level Survival Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Ruderman, Michael A.; Wilson, Deirdra F.; Reid, Savanna

    2015-01-01

    Objective This administrative data-linkage cohort study examines the association between prison crowding and the rate of post-release parole violations in a random sample of prisoners released with parole conditions in California, for an observation period of two years (January 2003 through December 2004). Background Crowding overextends prison resources needed to adequately protect inmates and provide drug rehabilitation services. Violence and lack of access to treatment are known risk factors for drug use and substance use disorders. These and other psychosocial effects of crowding may lead to higher rates of recidivism in California parolees. Methods Rates of parole violation for parolees exposed to high and medium levels of prison crowding were compared to parolees with low prison crowding exposure. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a Cox model for recurrent events. Our dataset included 13070 parolees in California, combining individual level parolee data with aggregate level crowding data for multilevel analysis. Results Comparing parolees exposed to high crowding with those exposed to low crowding, the effect sizes from greatest to least were absconding violations (HR 3.56 95% CI: 3.05–4.17), drug violations (HR 2.44 95% CI: 2.00–2.98), non-violent violations (HR 2.14 95% CI: 1.73–2.64), violent and serious violations (HR 1.88 95% CI: 1.45–2.43), and technical violations (HR 1.86 95% CI: 1.37–2.53). Conclusions Prison crowding predicted higher rates of parole violations after release from prison. The effect was magnitude-dependent and particularly strong for drug charges. Further research into whether adverse prison experiences, such as crowding, are associated with recidivism and drug use in particular may be warranted. PMID:26492490

  19. Survival Rates and Risk Factors for Cephalad and L5-S1 Adjacent Segment Degeneration after L5 Floating Lumbar Fusion : A Minimum 2-Year Follow-Up

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Young-Seok; Park, Seung-Won

    2015-01-01

    Objective Although the L5-S1 has distinct structural features in comparison with other lumbar spine segments, not much is known about adjacent segment degeneration (ASD) at the L5-S1 segment. The aim of study was to compare the incidence and character of ASD of the cephalad and L5-S1 segments after L5 floating lumbar fusion. Methods From 2005 to 2010, 115 patients who underwent L5 floating lumber fusion were investigated. The mean follow-up period was 46.1 months. The incidence of radiological and clinical ASD of the cephalad and the L5-S1 segments was compared using survival analysis. Risk factors affecting ASD were analyzed using a log rank test and the Cox proportional hazard model. Results Radiological ASD of the L5-S1 segment had a statistically significant higher survival rate than that of the cephalad segment (p=0.001). However, clinical ASD of the L5-S1 segment was significantly lower survival rates than that of the cephalad segment (p=0.038). Risk factor analysis showed that disc degeneration of the cephalad segment and preoperative spinal stenosis of the L5-S1 segment were risk factors. Conclusion In L5 floating fusion, radiological ASD was more common in the cephalad segment and clinical ASD was more common in the L5-S1 segment. At the L5-S1 segment, the degree of spinal stenosis appears to be the most influential risk factor in ASD incidences, unlike the cephalad segment. PMID:25733991

  20. ENSO, Nest Predation Risk, Food Abundance, and Male Status Fail to Explain Annual Variations in the Apparent Survival Rate of a Migratory Songbird

    PubMed Central

    Vernouillet, Alizée; Villard, Marc-André; Haché, Samuel

    2014-01-01

    Adult mortality can be a major driver of population decline in species whose productivity is relatively low. Yet, little is known about the factors influencing adult survival rates in migratory bird species, nor do we know much about the longer-term effects of habitat disturbance on the fitness of individuals. The Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) is one of the vertebrate species most sensitive to forest management, yet it is still common and widespread. We monitored the fate of 330 colour-banded Ovenbird males in four pairs of 25-ha plots during 9 successive breeding seasons. One plot of each pair was treated through selection harvesting (30–40% basal area removed) during the first winter. We tested the following hypotheses: (1) higher physiological costs in harvested plots as a result of lower food abundance will reduce apparent survival rate (ASR) relative to controls; (2) lower ASR following years with low nest survival and higher probability of renesting; (3) fluctuations in ASR reflecting El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and (4) higher ASR in returning males than in recruits (unbanded immigrants) owing to greater site familiarity in the former. We tested the relative importance of these hypotheses, or combinations thereof, by generating 23 models explaining variation in ASR. The year-dependent model received the most support, showing a 41% decrease in ASR from 2007 to 2014. The important year-to-year variation we observed in ASR (Σwi = 0.99) was not explained by variation in nest predation risk nor by ENSO. There was also little evidence for an effect of selection harvesting on ASR of Ovenbird males, despite a slight reduction in lifespan relative to males from control plots (2.7 vs 2.9 years). An avenue worth exploring to explain this intriguing pattern would be to determine whether conditions at migratory stopover sites or in the wintering area of our focal population have gradually worsened over the past decade. PMID:25419839

  1. ENSO, nest predation risk, food abundance, and male status fail to explain annual variations in the apparent survival rate of a migratory songbird.

    PubMed

    Vernouillet, Alizée; Villard, Marc-André; Haché, Samuel

    2014-01-01

    Adult mortality can be a major driver of population decline in species whose productivity is relatively low. Yet, little is known about the factors influencing adult survival rates in migratory bird species, nor do we know much about the longer-term effects of habitat disturbance on the fitness of individuals. The Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) is one of the vertebrate species most sensitive to forest management, yet it is still common and widespread. We monitored the fate of 330 colour-banded Ovenbird males in four pairs of 25-ha plots during 9 successive breeding seasons. One plot of each pair was treated through selection harvesting (30-40% basal area removed) during the first winter. We tested the following hypotheses: (1) higher physiological costs in harvested plots as a result of lower food abundance will reduce apparent survival rate (ASR) relative to controls; (2) lower ASR following years with low nest survival and higher probability of renesting; (3) fluctuations in ASR reflecting El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and (4) higher ASR in returning males than in recruits (unbanded immigrants) owing to greater site familiarity in the former. We tested the relative importance of these hypotheses, or combinations thereof, by generating 23 models explaining variation in ASR. The year-dependent model received the most support, showing a 41% decrease in ASR from 2007 to 2014. The important year-to-year variation we observed in ASR (Σw(i) = 0.99) was not explained by variation in nest predation risk nor by ENSO. There was also little evidence for an effect of selection harvesting on ASR of Ovenbird males, despite a slight reduction in lifespan relative to males from control plots (2.7 vs 2.9 years). An avenue worth exploring to explain this intriguing pattern would be to determine whether conditions at migratory stopover sites or in the wintering area of our focal population have gradually worsened over the past decade.

  2. Microbial survival rates of Escherichia coli and Deinococcus radiodurans under low temperature, low pressure, and UV-Irradiation conditions, and their relevance to possible Martian life.

    PubMed

    Diaz, Benjamin; Schulze-Makuch, Dirk

    2006-04-01

    Viability rates were determined for microbial populations of Escherichia coli and Deinococcus radiodurans under the environmental stresses of low temperature (-35 degrees C), low-pressure conditions (83.3 kPa), and ultraviolet (UV) irradiation (37 W/m(2)). During the stress tests the organisms were suspended in saltwater soil and freshwater soil media, at variable burial depths, and in seawater. Microbial populations of both organisms were most susceptible to dehydration stress associated with low-pressure conditions, and to UV irradiation. However, suspension in a liquid water medium and burial at larger depths (5 cm) improved survival rates markedly. Our results indicate that planetary surfaces that possess little to no atmosphere and have low water availability do not constitute a favorable environment for terrestrial microorganisms.

  3. Laboratory-derived temperature preference and effect on the feeding rate and survival of juvenile Hemimysis anomala

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sun, Jennifer; Rudstam, Lars S.; Boscarino, Brent T.; Walsh, Maureen G.; Lantry, Brian F.

    2013-01-01

    Hemimysis anomala is a warm-water mysid that invaded the Great Lakes region in 2006 and has since rapidly spread throughout the basin. We conducted three laboratory experiments to better define the temperature preference, tolerance limits, and temperature effects on feeding rates of juvenile Hemimysis, using individuals acclimated to mid (16 °C) and upper (22 °C) preferred temperature values previously reported for the species. For temperature preference, we fit a two-parameter Gaussian (μ, σ) function to the experimental data, and found that the peak values (μ, interpreted as the preference temperature) were 22.0 °C (SE 0.25) when acclimated to 16 and 21.9 °C (SE 0.38) when acclimated to 22 °C, with the σ-values of the curves at 2.6 and 2.5 °C, respectively. No mysids were observed in temperatures below 10 or above 28 °C in these preference experiments. In short-term tolerance experiments for temperatures between 4 and 32 °C, all mysids died within 8 h at 30.2 °C for 16 °C acclimated mysids, and at 31.8 °C for 22 °C acclimated mysids. No lower lethal limit was found. Feeding rates increased with temperature from an average of 4 Bosmina eaten per hour at 5 °C to 19 Bosmina eaten per hour at 27 °C. The results of our experiments indicate an optimal temperature for Hemimysis between 21 and 27 °C, which corresponds with temperatures during periods of high population growth in the field. These results contribute a better understanding of this species' biological response to temperature that will help guide field studies and inform bioenergetics modeling.

  4. Impact of Screening and Risk Factors for Local Recurrence and Survival After Conservative Surgery and Radiotherapy for Early Breast Cancer: Results From a Large Series With Long-Term Follow-Up

    SciTech Connect

    Kunkler, Ian H.; Kerr, Gillian R.; Thomas, Jeremy S.; Jack, Wilma J.L.; Bartlett, John M.S.; Pedersen, Hans C.; Cameron, David A.; Dixon, J. Michael; Chetty, Udi

    2012-07-01

    Purpose: To investigate conventional prognostic factors for ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR), distant metastasis (DM), and survival after breast-conserving therapy (BCT) in screen-detected and symptomatic cases on surveillance up to 25 years. Patients and Methods: A total of 1812 consecutive patients in three cohorts (1981-1989, 1990-1992, and 1993-1998) with T12N01M0 invasive breast cancer were treated with BCT (median follow-up, 14 years). Tumor type and grade were reviewed by a single pathologist. Hormone receptor status was measured by immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess independent prognostic variables for relapse and survival. Results: A total of 205 IBTR occurred, with 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year actuarial relapse rates of 4.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.35-5.5%), 8.4% (95% CI 7.1-9.8%), 14.1% (95% CI 12.0-16%), and 17.4% (95% CI 14.5-20.2%). Number of nodes, young age, pathologic tumor size, and multifocality were significant factors for IBTR. Three hundred seventy-eight patients developed DM. The actuarial metastatic rate was 12% at 5 years and 17.9% at 10 years. Young age, number of positive nodes, pathologic tumor size, and tumor grade were significant factors for DM relapse. When conventional prognostic indices were taken into account screen-detected cancers showed no improvement in overall relapse or survival rate compared with symptomatic cases but did show a reduced risk of DM after IBTR. After 10 years IBTR relapse continued at a constant rate of 0.87% per annum. Conclusions: The Edinburgh BCT series has shown that screen-detected invasive breast cancers do not have significantly different clinical outcomes compared with symptomatic cases when pathologic risk factors are taken into account. This suggests that these patients be managed in a similar way.

  5. Tropical tree rings reveal preferential survival of fast-growing juveniles and increased juvenile growth rates over time.

    PubMed

    Rozendaal, Danaë M A; Brienen, Roel J W; Soliz-Gamboa, Claudia C; Zuidema, Pieter A

    2010-02-01

    Long-term juvenile growth patterns of tropical trees were studied to test two hypotheses: fast-growing juvenile trees have a higher chance of reaching the canopy ('juvenile selection effect'); and tree growth has increased over time ('historical growth increase'). Tree-ring analysis was applied to test these hypotheses for five tree species from three moist forest sites in Bolivia, using samples from 459 individuals. Basal area increment was calculated from ring widths, for trees < 30 cm in diameter. For three out of five species, a juvenile selection effect was found in rings formed by small juveniles. Thus, extant adult trees in these species have had higher juvenile growth rates than extant juvenile trees. By contrast, rings formed by somewhat larger juveniles in four species showed the opposite pattern: a historical growth increase. For most size classes of > 10 cm diameter none of the patterns was found. Fast juvenile growth may be essential to enable tropical trees to reach the forest canopy, especially for small juvenile trees in the dark forest understorey. The historical growth increase requires cautious interpretation, but may be partially attributable to CO(2) fertilization.

  6. Heart rate variability during hemodialysis is an indicator for long-term vascular access survival in uremic patients

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Ya-Ting; Chang, Yu-Ming; Chen, I-Ling; Yang, Chuan-Lan; Leu, Show-Chin; Su, Hung-Li; Kao, Jsun-Liang; Tsai, Shih-Ching; Jhen, Rong-Na; Tang, Woung-Ru

    2017-01-01

    Background Vascular access (VA) is the lifeline of hemodialysis patients. Although the autonomic nervous system might be associated with VA failure (VAF), it has never been addressed in previous studies. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive values of the heart rate variability (HRV) indices for long-term VA outcomes. Methods This retrospective study was conducted using a prospectively established cohort enrolling 175 adult chronic hemodialysis patients (100 women, mean age 65.1 ± 12.9 years) from June 2010 to August 2010. Each participant received a series of HRV measurements at enrollment. After a 60-month follow-up period, we retrospectively reviewed all events and therapeutic procedures of the VAs which existed at the enrollment and during the follow-up period. Results During the 60-month follow-up period, 37 (26.8%) had VAF but 138 (73.2%) didn’t. The values of most HRV indices were statistically increased during hemodialysis since initiation in the non-VAF group, but not in the VAF group. Among all participants, the independent indicators for VAF included higher normalized high-frequency (nHF) activity [hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, p = 0.005], lower low-frequency/high-frequency (LF/HF) ratio (HR 0.80, p = 0.015), experience of urokinase therapy (HR 11.18, p = 0.002), percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (HR 2.88, p = 0.003) and surgical thrombectomy (HR 2.36, p = 0.035), as well as higher baseline serum creatinine (HR 1.07, p = 0.027) and potassium level (HR 1.58, p = 0.037). In subgroup analysis, a lower sympathetic activity indicated by lower LF/HF ratio was an independent indicator for VAF (HR 0.61, p = 0.03) for tunneled cuffed catheter, but conversely played a protective role against VAF (HR 1.27, p = 0.002) for arteriovenous fistula. Conclusions HRV is a useful tool for predicting long-term VAF among hemodialysis patients. PMID:28249028

  7. Grafts of extra-adrenal chromaffin cells as aggregates show better survival rate and regenerative effects on parkinsonian rats than dispersed cell grafts.

    PubMed

    Galan-Rodriguez, B; del-Marco, A; Flores, J A; Ramiro-Fuentes, S; Gonzalez-Aparicio, R; Tunez, I; Tasset, I; Fernandez-Espejo, E

    2008-03-01

    The objective was to discern the neuroregenerative effect of grafts of extra-adrenal cells of the Zuckerkandl's paraganglion (ZP) in the nigrostriatal circuit, by using the retrograde model of parkinsonism in rats. The antiparkinsonian efficacy of two types of grafting procedures was studied (cell aggregates vs. dispersed cells), and GDNF and TGFbeta(1) (dopaminotrophic factors) as well as dopamine presence in extra-adrenal tissue was analyzed. Extra-adrenal chromaffin cells are noradrenergics, tissue dopamine is low, and they express both GDNF and TGFbeta(1). Grafts of cell aggregates, not of dispersed cells, exerted a trophic regeneration of the host striatum, leading to amelioration of motor deficits. Sprouting of spared dopaminergic fibers within the striatum, reduction of dopamine axon degeneration, and/or enhanced phenotypic expression of TH would explain striatal regeneration. Grafted cells as aggregates showed a better survival rate than dispersed cells, and they express higher levels of GDNF. Higher survivability and GDNF content together with the neurorestorative and dopaminotrophic action of both GDNF and TGFbeta(1) could account for striatal recovery and functional amelioration after grafting ZP cell aggregates. Finally, nigral degeneration and partial degeneration of ventral tegmental area were not precluded after transplantation, indicating that the trophic effect of grafts was local within the host striatum.

  8. RNAi-Mediated Knockdown of Catalase Causes Cell Cycle Arrest in SL-1 Cells and Results in Low Survival Rate of Spodoptera litura (Fabricius)

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Meiying; Chen, Shaohua; Muhammad, Rizwan-ul-Haq; Dong, Xiaolin; Gong, Liang

    2013-01-01

    Deregulated reactive oxygen species (ROS) production can lead to the disruption of structural and functional integrity of cells as a consequence of reactive interaction between ROS and various biological components. Catalase (CAT) is a common enzyme existing in nearly all organisms exposed to oxygen, which decomposes harmful hydrogen peroxide, into water and oxygen. In this study, the full length sequence that encodes CAT-like protein from Spodoptera litura named siltCAT (GenBank accession number: JQ_663444) was cloned and characterized. Amino acid sequence alignment showed siltCAT shared relatively high conservation with other insect, especially the conserved residues which defined heme and NADPH orientation. Expression pattern analysis showed that siltCAT mRNA was mainly expressed in the fat body, midgut, cuticle and malpighian tube, and as well as over last instar larvae, pupa and adult stages. RNA interference was used to silence CAT gene in SL-1 cells and the fourth-instar stage of S. litura larvae respectively. Our results provided evidence that CAT knockdown induced ROS generation, cell cycle arrest and apoptosis in SL-1 cells. It also confirmed the decrease in survival rate because of increased ROS production in experimental groups injected with double-stranded RNA of CAT (dsCAT). This study implied that ROS scavenging by CAT is important for S. litura survival. PMID:23555693

  9. Chinese Herbal Medicine Treatment Improves the Overall Survival Rate of Individuals with Hypertension among Type 2 Diabetes Patients and Modulates In Vitro Smooth Muscle Cell Contractility

    PubMed Central

    Yeh, Yi-Chun; Cheng, Chi-Fung; Shiao, Yi-Tzone; Wang, Chang-Bi; Chien, Wen-Kuei; Chen, Jin-Hua; Liu, Xiang; Tsang, Hsinyi; Lin, Ting-Hsu; Liao, Chiu-Chu; Huang, Shao-Mei; Li, Ju-Pi; Lin, Cheng-Wen; Pang, Hao-Yu; Lin, Jaung-Geng; Lan, Yu-Ching; Liu, Yu-Huei; Chen, Shih-Yin; Tsai, Fuu-Jen; Liang, Wen-Miin

    2015-01-01

    Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a chronic, multifactorial, and metabolic disorder accounting for 90% diabetes cases worldwide. Among them, almost half of T2D have hypertension, which is responsible for cardiovascular disease, morbidity, and mortality in these patients. The Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) prescription patterns of hypertension individuals among T2D patients have yet to be characterized. This study, therefore, aimed to determine their prescription patterns and evaluate the CHM effect. A cohort of one million randomly sampled cases from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) was used to investigate the overall survival rate of CHM users, and prescription patterns. After matching CHM and non-CHM users for age, gender and date of diagnosis of hypertension, 980 subjects for each group were selected. The CHM users were characterized with slightly longer duration time from diabetes to hypertension, and more cases for hyperlipidaemia. The cumulative survival probabilities were higher in CHM users than in non-CHM users. Among these top 12 herbs, Liu-Wei-Di-Huang-Wan, Jia-Wei-Xiao-Yao-San, Dan-Shen, and Ge-Gen were the most common herbs and inhibited in vitro smooth muscle cell contractility. Our study also provides a CHM comprehensive list that may be useful in future investigation of the safety and efficacy for individuals with hypertension among type 2 diabetes patients. PMID:26699542

  10. High-dose-rate brachytherapy in uterine cervical carcinoma

    SciTech Connect

    Patel, Firuza D. . E-mail: patelfd@glide.net.in; Rai, Bhavana; Mallick, Indranil; Sharma, Suresh C.

    2005-05-01

    Purpose: High-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy is in wide use for curative treatment of cervical cancer. The American Brachytherapy Society has recommended that the individual fraction size be <7.5 Gy and the range of fractions should be four to eight; however, many fractionation schedules, varying from institution to institution, are in use. We use 9 Gy/fraction of HDR in two to five fractions in patients with carcinoma of the uterine cervix. We found that our results and toxicity were comparable to those reported in the literature and hereby present our experience with this fractionation schedule. Methods and Materials: A total of 121 patients with Stage I-III carcinoma of the uterine cervix were treated with HDR brachytherapy between 1996 and 2000. The total number of patients analyzed was 113. The median patient age was 53 years, and the histopathologic type was squamous cell carcinoma in 93% of patients. The patients were subdivided into Groups 1 and 2. In Group 1, 18 patients with Stage Ib-IIb disease, tumor size <4 cm, and preserved cervical anatomy underwent simultaneous external beam radiotherapy to the pelvis to a dose of 40 Gy in 20 fractions within 4 weeks with central shielding and HDR brachytherapy of 9 Gy/fraction, given weekly, and interdigitated with external beam radiotherapy. The 95 patients in Group 2, who had Stage IIb-IIIb disease underwent external beam radiotherapy to the pelvis to a dose of 46 Gy in 23 fractions within 4.5 weeks followed by two sessions of HDR intracavitary brachytherapy of 9 Gy each given 1 week apart. The follow-up range was 3-7 years (median, 36.4 months). Late toxicity was graded according to the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group criteria. Results: The 5-year actuarial local control and disease-free survival rate was 74.5% and 62.0%, respectively. The actuarial local control rate at 5 years was 100% for Stage I, 80% for Stage II, and 67.2% for Stage III patients. The 5-year actuarial disease-free survival rate was 88.8% for

  11. Youth Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool (Y-ARAT): The development of an actuarial risk assessment instrument for predicting general offense recidivism on the basis of police records.

    PubMed

    van der Put, Claudia E

    2014-06-01

    Estimating the risk for recidivism is important for many areas of the criminal justice system. In the present study, the Youth Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool (Y-ARAT) was developed for juvenile offenders based solely on police records, with the aim to estimate the risk of general recidivism among large groups of juvenile offenders by police officers without clinical expertise. On the basis of the Y-ARAT, juvenile offenders are classified into five risk groups based on (combinations of) 10 variables including different types of incidents in which the juvenile was a suspect, total number of incidents in which the juvenile was a suspect, total number of other incidents, total number of incidents in which co-occupants at the youth's address were suspects, gender, and age at first incident. The Y-ARAT was developed on a sample of 2,501 juvenile offenders and validated on another sample of 2,499 juvenile offenders, showing moderate predictive accuracy (area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve = .73), with little variation between the construction and validation sample. The predictive accuracy of the Y-ARAT was considered sufficient to justify its use as a screening instrument for the police.

  12. Density and survival rate of Culex quinquefasciatus at Parque Ecológico do Tietê, São Paulo, Brazil.

    PubMed

    Laporta, Gabriel Z; Sallum, Maria Anice M

    2008-03-01

    Parity rate, gonotrophic cycle length, and density of a Culex quinquefasciatus female population was estimated at the Parque Ecológico do Tietê (PET), São Paulo, Brazil. Adult Cx. quinquefasciatus females were collected from vegetation along the edges of a polluted drainage canal with the use of a battery-powered backpack aspirator from September to November 2005 and from February to April 2006. We examined 255 Cx. quinquefasciatus ovaries to establish the parity rate of 0.22 and determined the gonotrophic cycle length under laboratory conditions to be 3 and 4 days. From these data, we calculated the Cx. quinquefasciatus survival rate to be 0.60 and 0.68 per day. Density of the Cx. quinquefasciatus female (5.71 females per m2) was estimated based on a population size of 28,810 individuals divided by the sampled area of 5,040 m2. Results of all experiments indicate medium survivorship and high density of the Cx. quinquefasciatus female population. This species is epidemiologically relevant in the PET area and should be a target of the vector control program of São Paulo municipality.

  13. Adaptive Significance of Quorum Sensing-Dependent Regulation of Rhamnolipids by Integration of Growth Rate in Burkholderia glumae: A Trade-Off between Survival and Efficiency

    PubMed Central

    Nickzad, Arvin; Déziel, Eric

    2016-01-01

    motility, thus promoting the chances of survival, even if the cell density might not be high enough for an otherwise efficient production of rhamnolipids. In conclusion, we propose that the adaptive significance of growth rate-dependent functionality of QS in biosynthesis of costly public goods lies within providing a regulatory mechanism for selecting the optimal trade-off between survival and efficiency. PMID:27540372

  14. Long-term survival after chronic subdural haematoma.

    PubMed

    Manickam, Appukutty; Marshman, Laurence A G; Johnston, Ross

    2016-12-01

    Outcome after chronic subdural haematoma (CSDH) is invariably assumed favourable: however, little data regarding long term survival (LTS) exists. One study reported excess mortality restricted to year 1, but with expected actuarial rates thereafter. We aimed to determine LTS after CSDH in a retrospective analysis relative to actuarial data from age-matched controls. Data was obtained in n=155, (M:F 97:58, 69.3±2.3years). Follow-up maxima was 14.19years (mean: 4.02±3.07years, median: 5.2years). Mortality in-hospital, at 6months, 1year, 2years and 5years was n=13 (8.39%), n=22 (14.19%), n=31 (20.35%), n=42 (27.1%) and n=54 (34.84%). LTS was significantly worse than controls (5.29±0.59years vs. 17.74±1.8years, hazard ratio [HR]: 3.52, P<0.0001). Death most frequently related to pneumonia/sepsis and ischemic heart disease (IHD). Median modified Rankin score (mRS) in those discharged home (n=94, 60.65%) was 2 [IQR: 1-3]. Discharge mRS in those who died at 6months, 1year, 2years and 5years was 5 [IQR: 3-6], 5 [IQR: 4-6], 3 [IQR: 1-3], 4 [IQR: 2-5]. Discharge mRS was significantly worse with year 1 mortality (P=0.014). LTS related to discharge mRS (HR: 37.006, P<0.001), post-operative motor-score (HR: 0.581, P=0.0026), IHD (HR: 5.186, P=0.005), warfarin-use (HR: 5.93, P=0.036) and dementia (HR: 5.39, P=0.031). No long term recurrences (LTR) were recorded. Although most were discharged home with mRS=2, LTS was markedly less than previously reported: peers lived 12.4years longer. Although greater in year 1, excess mortality was not restricted to year 1, but continued throughout prolonged follow-up. LTS related to discharge disability and dependence, and co-morbid risk factors for cerebral atrophy. No LTR suggests that, once ultimately closed, the 'subdural space' remains closed. CSDH patients represent a vulnerable group who require continued long-term medical surveillance.

  15. A Brief Actuarial Assessment for the Prediction of Wife Assault Recidivism: The Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilton, N. Zoe; Harris, Grant T.; Rice, Marnie E.; Lang, Carol; Cormier, Catherine A.; Lines, Kathryn J.

    2004-01-01

    An actuarial assessment to predict male-to-female marital violence was constructed from a pool of potential predictors in a sample of 589 offenders identified in police records and followed up for an average of almost 5 years. Archival information in several domains (offender characteristics, domestic violence history, nondomestic criminal…

  16. Competence in Mathematics and Academic Achievement: An Analysis of Enrollees in the Bachelor of Science in Actuarial Science Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wamala, Robert; Maswere, Dyson W.; Mwanga, Yeko

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the role of prior grounding attained in mathematics in predicting the academic achievement of enrollees in Bachelor of Science in Actuarial Science (BSAS). The investigation is based on administrative records of 240 BSAS enrollees at Makerere University, School of Statistics and Planning in the 2007-2009 cohorts. Students'…

  17. Throwing the baby out with the bath water: is it time for clinical judgment to supplement actuarial risk assessment?

    PubMed

    Abbott, Brian R

    2011-01-01

    The assessment of the potential for sexual violence is one of three prongs that must be met to satisfy the requirements for civil confinement of dangerous sex offenders in the 21 U.S. jurisdictions that have these laws. In a recent issue of The Journal, Sreenivasan et al. argued that, because of a host of methodological problems, actuarial risk assessment methods in general and the Static-99 and its progeny in particular are insufficient for accurate assessment of risk for dangerous sex offenders. They propose using a combination of clinical judgment with actuarial science as a solution. This analysis and review of Sreenivasan et al. reveals and corrects flaws in the arguments they employed to support their position and shows how the combination of actuarial science with clinical judgment is more error prone than the actuarial approach only, and cannot be forensically defended in court. Recommendations on reporting Static-99R data in expert testimony are provided, taking into account the limitations of the instrument.

  18. 75 FR 6360 - Federal Advisory Committee; DoD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-02-09

    ... of the Secretary Federal Advisory Committee; DoD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of... that the DoD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries will meet on August 18, 2010... used in the valuation of benefits under DoD retiree health care programs for...

  19. 78 FR 9890 - DoD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries; Notice of Federal Advisory...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-02-12

    ... of the Secretary DoD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries; Notice of Federal... that the following Federal Advisory Committee meeting of the DoD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care... in the valuation of benefits under DoD retiree health care programs for...

  20. If You Build It, Will They Come? Tales of Developing a New Degree Program in Actuarial Science

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marano, Lisa E.

    2014-01-01

    In 2007, the B.S. in Applied Mathematics program consisting of five concentrations, including Actuarial Science, began at West Chester University of Pennsylvania, and we graduated our first class (of one) that December. We describe our program, some ideas to consider when planning your own program, and share some of the successes of our program…

  1. High-Dose-Rate Intracavitary Brachytherapy Boost for Early T Stage Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma{l_brace}PRIVATE{r_brace}

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, T.-W. Wong, Victy Y.W.; Sze, W.-K.; Lui, Collin M.M.; Tung, Stewart Y.

    2008-02-01

    Purpose: To investigate any possible therapeutic gain from dose escalation with brachytherapy for early T stage nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods and Materials: One hundred forty-five patients with T1-2b N0-3 NPC were boosted with high-dose-rate intracavitary brachytherapy after completion of two-dimensional external radiotherapy (ERT) during the period from 1999 to 2003. To compare the efficacy of brachytherapy boost, another 142 patients with T1-2b N0-3 disease who were treated with ERT alone during 1994 to 1999 were evaluated. All patients were treated with ERT to a total dose of 66 Gy in 6.5 weeks. The brachytherapy boost group was given 10-12 Gy in 2 weekly fractions. Results: Dose escalation beyond 66 Gy with brachytherapy boost was shown to improve local control and survival. The 5-year actuarial local failure-free survival, regional failure-free survival, distant metastasis-free survival, progression-free survival, cancer-specific survival, and overall survival rates for the brachytherapy group and the control group were 95.8% and 88.3% (p = 0.020), 96% and 94.6% (p = 0.40), 95% and 83.2% (p = 0.0045), 89.2% and 74.8% (p = 0.0021), 94.5% and 83.4% (p = 0.0058), and 91.1% and 79.6% (p = 0.0062), respectively. The 5-year major-complication-free survival rate was 89.5% for the brachytherapy group and 85.6% for the control group (p = 0.23). Conclusions: For patients who are treated with two-dimensional treatment techniques, dose escalation with brachytherapy boost improves local control and overall survival of patients with T1-T2a and possibly non-bulky T2b disease.

  2. PSA nadir as a predictive factor for biochemical disease-free survival and overall survival following whole-gland salvage HIFU following radiotherapy failure

    PubMed Central

    Shah, Taimur; Peters, Max; Kanthabalan, Abi; McCartan, Neil; Fatola, Yomi; van der Voort van Zyp, Jochem; van Vulpen, Marco; Freeman, Alex; Moore, Caroline M.; Arya, Manit; Emberton, Mark; Ahmed, Hashim U.

    2016-01-01

    Background Treatment options for radio-recurrent prostate cancer are either androgen deprivation therapy or salvage prostatectomy. Whole-gland HIFU might have a role in this setting. Methods An independent HIFU registry collated consecutive cases of HIFU. Between 2005 and 2012 we identified 50 men who underwent whole-gland HIFU following histological confirmation of localized disease following prior external beam radiotherapy (2005-2012). No upper threshold was applied for risk category, Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA), or Gleason grade either at presentation or at time of failure. Progression was defined as a composite with either biochemical failure (Phoenix criteria [PSA>nadir+2ng/mL]), start of systemic therapies or metastases. Results Median age (IQR), pre-treatment PSA (IQR), and Gleason score (range), were 68years (64-72), 5.9ng/mL (2.2-11.3), and 7 (6-9), respectively. Median follow-up was 64months (49-84). 24/50 (48%) avoided androgen deprivation therapies. 28/50 (56%) achieved a PSA-nadir <0.5ng/ml. 15/50 (30%) had a nadir ≥0.5ng/ml. 7/50 (14%) did not nadir (PSA non-responders). Actuarial 1, 3 and 5-year PFS was 72%, 40% and 31%, respectively. Actuarial 1, 3, and 5-year OS was 100%, 94% and 87%, respectively. When comparing patients with PSA nadir <0.5ng/ml, nadir ≥0.5 and non-responders a statistically significant difference in PFS was seen (p<0.0001). 3-year PFS in each group was 57%, 20% and 0%, respectively. 5-year overall survival was 96%, 100% and 38%, respectively. Early in the learning curve, between 2005-2007, 3/50 (6%) developed a fistula. Intervention for bladder outlet obstruction was needed in 27/50 (54%). Patient-reported outcome measures questionnaires showed incontinence (any pad-use) as 8/26 (31%). Conclusions In our series of high-risk patients, in whom 30-50% may have micro-metastases, disease control rates were promising in PSA-responders, however with significant morbidity. Additionally, post-HIFU PSA-nadir appears to be an

  3. Hamsters chewing betel quid or areca nut directly show a decrease in body weight and survival rates with concomitant epithelial hyperplasia of cheek pouch.

    PubMed

    Chiang, Chun-Pin; Chang, Mei-Chi; Lee, Jang-Jaer; Chang, Julia Yu-Fong; Lee, Po-Hsuen; Hahn, Liang-Jiunn; Jeng, Jiiang-Huei

    2004-08-01

    Betel quid (BQ) chewing is strongly associated with the occurrence of oral leukoplakia, oral submucous fibrosis, and oral cancer. There are about 200-600 million BQ chewers in the world. Previous animal studies support the potential carcinogenicity of BQ in different test systems. However, little animal experiment has let hamsters or rats to chew BQ directly, similar to that in humans. In the present study, we established a hamster model of chewing BQ or areca nut (AN). A total of 81 2-week-old hamsters were randomly divided into three groups: 25 for control group, 28 for BQ-chewing group, and 28 for AN-chewing group. These animals were fed with powdered diet with/without BQ or AN for 18 months. Although the consumption of BQ or AN showed some variations, hamsters fed with powdered diet could chew and grind AN or BQ into small pieces of coarse fibers during the entire experimental period. The survival rate of AN-chewing hamsters decreased significantly after 6 months of exposure. The mean survival time was 15.6 +/- 0.9 months for control animals, 13.6 +/- 0.98 months for AN-chewing animals, and 15.7 +/- 0.55 months for BQ-chewing animals. The body weight of BQ- or AN-chewing animals also decreased after 4-13 months. Hamsters fed with AN for 18 months showed hyperkeratosis in 80% and acanthosis in 50% of cheek pouches. Animals fed with BQ for 18 months also showed hyperkeratosis in 93% and acanthosis in 14% of cheek pouches. These results indicate that AN and BQ components may induce alterations in proliferation and differentiation of oral epithelial cells. Animal model of chewing BQ or AN can be useful for future tumor initiation, promotion and chemoprevention experiments simulating the condition of BQ chewing in humans.

  4. Avastin® in combination with gemcitabine and cisplatin significantly inhibits tumor angiogenesis and increases the survival rate of human A549 tumor-bearing mice

    PubMed Central

    LIU, YING; XIA, XIZHENG; ZHOU, MINGKAI; LIU, XIAOJUN

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of Avastin® in combination with gemcitabine and cisplatin (GP) on the tumor growth of A549 tumor-bearing mice and the potential anti-tumor mechanism. A total of 30 human A549 tumor-bearing nude mice were randomly divided into the Avastin, chemotherapy and combined treatment groups for treatment with an intraperitoneal injection of Avastin (5 mg/kg) (Avastin group); an intraperitoneal injection of gemcitabine (4 mg/kg) and cisplatin (4 mg/kg) (chemotherapy group); or intraperitoneal injections of Avastin and GP (combined treatment group). The mice were observed for 30 days and the tumor growth, survival and body weight of the mice in the three groups were analyzed. The protein level of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in the tumor tissues was analyzed by ELISA. The vascular density and structural changes of the tumor were analyzed using immunohistochemistry. Compared with the Avastin and chemotherapy groups, the tumor growth of mice in the combined treatment group was significantly inhibited, and the survival rate of the mice was increased significantly. No difference in body weight was observed among the three groups of mice (P>0.05). The levels of VEGF in the combined treatment group tumor tissues were significantly reduced compared with those in the chemotherapy group tumor tissues (P<0.05). Furthermore, the vessel density of the tumor tissue in the combined treatment group was significantly reduced compared with that in the chemotherapy group (P<0.05), and the number of normal vessels in the combined treatment group tumors was significantly higher than that in the chemotherapy group tumors after 7 days of treatment (P<0.05). In conclusion, Avastin can significantly decrease the level of VEGF in tumor tissue, inhibit tumor angiogenesis and promote the normalization of tumor vascular structure, which may explain the enhanced efficacy of Avastin in combination with chemotherapy. PMID:26136956

  5. The factor structure of static actuarial items: its relation to prediction.

    PubMed

    Barbaree, Howard E; Langton, Calvin M; Peacock, Edward J

    2006-04-01

    Principal components analysis was conducted on items contained in actuarial instruments used with adult sex offenders, including: the Rapid Assessment of Sex Offender Risk for Recidivism (RASORR), the Static-99, the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG), the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG), and the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R). In a data set that included child molesters and rapists (N = 311), six interpretable components were identified: Antisocial Behavior, Child Sexual Abuse, Persistence, Detached Predatory Behavior, Young and Single, and Male Victim(s). The RRASOR was highly correlated with Persistence, and the VRAG and SORAG were highly correlated with Antisocial Behavior. Antisocial Behavior was a significant predictor of violent recidivism, while Persistence and Child Sexual Abuse were significant predictors of sexual recidivism.

  6. An indepth actuarial assessment for wife assault recidivism: the Domestic Violence Risk Appraisal Guide.

    PubMed

    Hilton, N Zoe; Harris, Grant T; Rice, Marnie E; Houghton, Ruth E; Eke, Angela W

    2008-04-01

    An actuarial tool, the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA), predicts recidivism using only variables readily obtained by frontline police officers. Correctional settings permit more comprehensive assessments. In a subset of ODARA construction and cross-validation cases, 303 men with a police record for wife assault and a correctional system file, the VRAG, SARA, Danger Assessment, and DVSI also predicted recidivism, but the Hare Psychopathy Checklist (PCL-R) best improved prediction of recidivism, occurrence, frequency, severity, injury, and charges. In 346 new cases, ODARA and PCL-R independently predicted recidivism. An algorithm was derived for a combined instrument, the Domestic Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (DVRAG), and an experience table is presented (N=649). Results indicated the importance of antisociality in wife assault.

  7. Radiation, hormonotherapy, survival and local control in prostatic carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Cellini, N; Luzi, S; Morganti, A G; Smaniotto, D; Niespolo, R M; Valentini, V

    1998-01-01

    The combination of concomitant external beam radiotherapy (ERT) and neoadjuvant hormonotherapy was shown to be able to significantly improve local control and disease-free survival in locally advanced prostatic carcinoma. (RTOG study 8610). Aim of this analysis was to assess the clinical results observed in a population of patients undergoing this combined treatment and, more particularly, to examine the prognostic impact of local control. 84 patients (T2: 47%, T3: 49.4%, T4: 3.6%) underwent concomitant ERT (dose to pelvic volume: 45 Gy; mean dose to prostatic volume: 65 Gy) and neoadjuvant hormonotherapy (flutamide: 250 mg three times/daily for 30 days; LH-RH analogue: 1 oral dose every 28 days starting 2 months prior to radiotherapy and for its whole duration). With a median follow-up of 36 months, 3.6% of patients were deceased; hematogenous metastases and local disease progression were recorded in 16.7% and 4.8% of patients, respectively. Local disease progression was shown to be significantly correlated with the incidence of metastases. In fact, the actuarial incidence of metastases at 5 years was 100% and 27% in patients with and without local recurrence (p = 0.0043) respectively. Overall, metastases-free local and biochemical recurrence-free survival was 89.2%, 66.5%, 85.0% and 41.9% respectively. At univariate analysis (logrank) the clinical stage (T) was shown to be significantly correlated with the incidence of metastases (p = .0004) and local progression (p < .0001). In conclusion, this study has confirmed the low rate of local progression with the combination of hormonotherapy and radiotherapy and the significant correlation of local control with the incidence of hematogenous metastases.

  8. [Postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy using NCS (neocarzinostatin) and 5-FU in the treatment of gastric cancer. First report--A comparison with the 5-year survival rate of patients undergoing combined therapy with MMC and 5-FU].

    PubMed

    Yokomori, T; Taniguchi, T; Iesato, H; Sakata, Y; Watanabe, T; Kawabe, K

    1987-11-01

    As a postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy for gastric cancer, we have administered a combination of NCS (Neocarzinostatin) and 5-FU (NF treatment method) and in this paper we have compiled the results obtained in patients who were treated for 5 years in an attempt to compare the 5-year survival rate with that of patients administered a combination of MMC and 5-FU (MF treatment group) and a control group administered no anticancer agents. As the selection of either NF or MF treatment was conducted on an annual basis, this study can be considered an historical controlled study. The results obtained are summarized as follows. On comparing the survival rate of the NF treatment group and the control group, the 5-year survival rate for all patients who underwent curative resection and all patients with histological stage III cancers and the curative resection PS (+) group, as well as the survival period of the non-resected patients, showed a statistically significant difference, indicating that the survival rate was higher in the NF group. On comparing the NF group and the MF group, although no statistically significant difference was observed between then based on a stratified analysis of all resected cases, histological stage differences and n.ps factors, etc., certain values tended to indicate a higher survival rate for the NF group. Moreover, the survival rate of the non-resected patients was more favorable in the NF group. These results confirm that NCS is useful for the treatment of stomach cancer and compares favorably with MMC. The appearance of side-effects was significantly lower in the NF group in comparison with the MF group and the number of patients who had to discontinue therapy was extremely low.

  9. [Chronic lymphoid leukemia. Survival in relation to clinical stages. Statistical analysis of 95 cases (author's transl)].

    PubMed

    Rozman, C; Montserrat Costa, E; Morey, M; Aranalde, J M; Feliú, E; Grañena, A; Hernández Nieto, L; Nomdedeu, B

    1979-04-10

    The prognosis of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia is very difficult to evaluate. The classification system by stages, which at the present time is the most simple and useful method for the prognosis of this disease, recognizes five degrees of involvement: stage 0 (medullary and peripheral lymphocytosis); stage I (lymphocytosis + enlarged lymph nodes); stage II (lymphocyosis + hepato-and/or splenomegaly); stage III (lymphocytosis + anemia), and stage IV (lymphocytosis + thrombocytopenia). In the present report 95 controlled patients at the Farreras Valentí School of Hematology are analyzed using the classification by stages; there were 19 cases in stage 0; 16 in stage I; 30 in stage II; 21 in stage III, and 9 in stage IV. The mean survival rate in the global series was 63 months and the average 90.9 months. As in other series, it was observed that patients in stages 0 and I have a much better prognosis than those in stages III and IV. Stage II occupies an intermediate position in relation to prognosis, since the actuarial survival figure for this stage can practically be superimposed on that of the global series. The classification of chronic lymphocytic leukemia by stages permits the specification of the therapeutic indications for this condition; it also encourages the search for new modalities of treatment for stages with poor prognosis, since in these cases chronic lymphocytic leukemia behaves in the manner of an acute or subacute hemopathy.

  10. Annual recapture and survival rates of two non-breeding adult populations of Roseate Terns Stema dougallii captured on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, and estimates of their population sizes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Neill, P.; Minton, C.D.T.; Nisbet, I.C.T.; Hines, J.E.

    2008-01-01

    Capture-recapture data from two disparate breeding populations of Roseate Terns (Sterna dougallii) captured together as non-breeding individuals from 2002 to 2007 in the southern Great Barrier Reef. Australia were analyzed for both survival rate and recapture rate. The average annual survival rate for the birds from the Asian population (S. d. bangsi) (0.901) is higher than that of the other population of unknown breeding origin (0.819). There was large variability in survival in both populations among years, but the average survival rate of 0.85 is similar to estimates for the same species in North America. The Cormack-Jolly-Seber models used in program MARK to estimate survival rates also produced estimated of recapture probabilities and population sizes. These estimates of population size were 29,000 for S. D. bangsi and 8,300 for the study area and much larger than the documented numbers in the likely breeding areas, suggesting that many breeding sites are currently unknown.

  11. Survival rate of wine-related yeasts during alcoholic fermentation assessed by direct live/dead staining combined with fluorescence in situ hybridization.

    PubMed

    Branco, Patrícia; Monteiro, Margarida; Moura, Patrícia; Albergaria, Helena

    2012-08-01

    Real-time detection of microorganisms involved in complex microbial process, such as wine fermentations, and evaluation of their physiological state is crucial to predict whether or not those microbial species will be able to impact the final product. In the present work we used a direct live/dead staining (LDS) procedure combined with fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) to simultaneously assess the identity and viability of Saccharomyces cerevisiae (Sc) and Hanseniaspora guilliermondii (Hg) during fermentations performed with single and mixed cultures. The population evolution of both yeasts was determined by plating and by LDS combined with species-specific FISH-probes labeled with Fluorescein. Since the FISH method involves the permeabilization of the cell membrane prior to hybridization and that it may influence the free diffusion of PI in and out of the cells, we optimized the concentration of this dye (0.5 μg of PI per 10(6) cells) for minimal diffusion (less than 2%). Fluorescent cells were enumerated by hemocytometry and flow cytometry. Results showed that the survival rate of Sc during mixed cultures was high throughout the entire process (60% of viable cells at the 9th day), while Hg began to die off at the 2nd day, exhibited 98% of dead cells at the 3rd day (45 g/l of ethanol) and became completely unculturable at the 4th day. However, under single culture fermentation the survival rate and culturability of Hg decreased at a much slower pace, exhibiting at the 7th day (67 g/l of ethanol) 8.7×10(4) CFU/ml and 85% of dead cells. Thus, our work demonstrated that the LDS-FISH method is able to simultaneously assess the viability and identity of these wine-related yeast species during alcoholic fermentation in a fast and reliable way. In order to validate PI-staining as a viability marker during alcoholic fermentation, we evaluated the effect of ethanol on the membrane permeability of Sc and Hg cells, as well as their capacity to recover membrane

  12. Survival rate and expression of Heat-shock protein 70 and Frost genes after temperature stress in Drosophila melanogaster lines that are selected for recovery time from temperature coma.

    PubMed

    Udaka, Hiroko; Ueda, Chiaki; Goto, Shin G

    2010-12-01

    In this study, we investigated the physiological mechanisms underlying temperature tolerance using Drosophila melanogaster lines with rapid, intermediate, or slow recovery from heat or chill coma that were established by artificial selection or by free recombination without selection. Specifically, we focused on the relationships among their recovery from heat or chill coma, survival after severe heat or cold, and survival enhanced by rapid cold hardening (RCH) or heat hardening. The recovery time from heat coma was not related to the survival rate after severe heat. The line with rapid recovery from chill coma showed a higher survival rate after severe cold exposure, and therefore the same mechanisms are likely to underlie these phenotypes. The recovery time from chill coma and survival rate after severe cold were unrelated to RCH-enhanced survival. We also examined the expression of two genes, Heat-shock protein 70 (Hsp70) and Frost, in these lines to understand the contribution of these stress-inducible genes to intraspecific variation in recovery from temperature coma. The line showing rapid recovery from heat coma did not exhibit higher expression of Hsp70 and Frost. In addition, Hsp70 and Frost transcription levels were not correlated with the recovery time from chill coma. Thus, Hsp70 and Frost transcriptional regulation was not involved in the intraspecific variation in recovery from temperature coma.

  13. TNFR-Fc fusion protein expressed by in vivo electroporation improves survival rates and myocardial injury in coxsackievirus induced murine myocarditis

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Jong-Mook; Lim, Byung-Kwan; Ho, Seong-Hyun; Yun, Soo-Hyeon; Shin, Jae-Ok; Park, Eun-Min; Kim, Duk-Kyung; Kim, Sunyoung; Jeon, Eun-Seok . E-mail: esjeon@smc.samsung.co.kr

    2006-06-09

    Tumor necrosis factor-{alpha} (TNF-{alpha}) is one of the major cytokines that modulate the immune response in viral myocarditis, but its role has not yet been thoroughly evaluated. We antagonized TNF-{alpha} using the expressed soluble p75 TNF receptor linked to the Fc portion of the human IgG1 gene (sTNFR:Fc) by in vivo electroporation, and evaluated its effects on experimental coxsackieviral B3 (CVB3) myocarditis. A plasmid DNA encoding sTNFR:Fc (15 {mu}g/mouse) was injected into the gastrocnemius muscles of Balb/C male mice followed by electroporation (day -1). Control mice were injected with an empty vector. One day after electroporation, mice were infected with CVB3 (day 0). Serum levels of sTNFR:Fc increased from day 2 and peaked at day 5 following electroporation. The heart virus titers of sTNFR:Fc mice were higher than those of controls at day 3. However, subsequent to day 12, the survival rates of the sTNFR:Fc mice were significantly higher than those of the controls (36% versus 0% at day 27, P < 0.01). Histopathological examination indicated that inflammation and myocardial fibrosis were significantly decreased in sTNFR:Fc mice at day 12. The expressed sTNFR:Fc could modulate the inflammatory process during the post-viremic phase of viral myocarditis.

  14. Predicting survival in heart failure case and control subjects by use of fully automated methods for deriving nonlinear and conventional indices of heart rate dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ho, K. K.; Moody, G. B.; Peng, C. K.; Mietus, J. E.; Larson, M. G.; Levy, D.; Goldberger, A. L.

    1997-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Despite much recent interest in quantification of heart rate variability (HRV), the prognostic value of conventional measures of HRV and of newer indices based on nonlinear dynamics is not universally accepted. METHODS AND RESULTS: We have designed algorithms for analyzing ambulatory ECG recordings and measuring HRV without human intervention, using robust methods for obtaining time-domain measures (mean and SD of heart rate), frequency-domain measures (power in the bands of 0.001 to 0.01 Hz [VLF], 0.01 to 0.15 Hz [LF], and 0.15 to 0.5 Hz [HF] and total spectral power [TP] over all three of these bands), and measures based on nonlinear dynamics (approximate entropy [ApEn], a measure of complexity, and detrended fluctuation analysis [DFA], a measure of long-term correlations). The study population consisted of chronic congestive heart failure (CHF) case patients and sex- and age-matched control subjects in the Framingham Heart Study. After exclusion of technically inadequate studies and those with atrial fibrillation, we used these algorithms to study HRV in 2-hour ambulatory ECG recordings of 69 participants (mean age, 71.7+/-8.1 years). By use of separate Cox proportional-hazards models, the conventional measures SD (P<.01), LF (P<.01), VLF (P<.05), and TP (P<.01) and the nonlinear measure DFA (P<.05) were predictors of survival over a mean follow-up period of 1.9 years; other measures, including ApEn (P>.3), were not. In multivariable models, DFA was of borderline predictive significance (P=.06) after adjustment for the diagnosis of CHF and SD. CONCLUSIONS: These results demonstrate that HRV analysis of ambulatory ECG recordings based on fully automated methods can have prognostic value in a population-based study and that nonlinear HRV indices may contribute prognostic value to complement traditional HRV measures.

  15. Long-Term Survival in Patients With Synchronous, Solitary Brain Metastasis From Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Treated With Radiosurgery

    SciTech Connect

    Flannery, Todd W.; Suntharalingam, Mohan; Regine, William F.; Chin, Lawrence S.; Krasna, Mark J.; Shehata, Michael K.; Edelman, Martin J.; Kremer, Marnie; Patchell, Roy A.; Kwok, Young

    2008-09-01

    Purpose: To report the outcome of patients with synchronous, solitary brain metastasis from non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with gamma knife stereotactic radiosurgery (GKSRS). Patients and Methods: Forty-two patients diagnosed with synchronous, solitary brain metastasis from NSCLC were treated with GKSRS between 1993 and 2006. The median Karnofsky performance status (KPS) was 90. Patients had thoracic Stage I-III disease (American Joint Committee on Cancer 2002 guidelines). Definitive thoracic therapy was delivered to 26/42 (62%) patients; 9 patients underwent chemotherapy and radiation, 12 patients had surgical resection, and 5 patients underwent preoperative chemoradiation and surgical resection. Results: The median overall survival (OS) was 18 months. The 1-, 2-, and 5-year actuarial OS rates were 71.3%, 34.1%, and 21%, respectively. For patients who underwent definitive thoracic therapy, the median OS was 26.4 months compared with 13.1 months for those who had nondefinitive therapy, and the 5-year actuarial OS was 34.6% vs. 0% (p < 0.0001). Median OS was significantly longer for patients with a KPS {>=}90 vs. KPS < 90 (27.8 months vs. 13.1 months, p < 0.0001). The prognostic factors significant on multivariate analysis were definitive thoracic therapy (p = 0.020) and KPS (p = 0.001). Conclusions: This is one of the largest series of patients diagnosed with synchronous, solitary brain metastasis from NSCLC treated with GKSRS. Definitive thoracic therapy and KPS significantly impacted OS. The 5-year OS of 21% demonstrates the potential for long-term survival in patients treated with GKSRS; therefore, patients with good KPS should be considered for definitive thoracic therapy.

  16. Survival in Extreme Conditions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bloom, Martin; Halsema, James

    1983-01-01

    Explores the psychosocial and environmental configurations involved in the survival of 500 civilians in a Japanese internment camp in the Philippines during World War II. Although conditions were very harsh, the survival rate of this group was better than expected. Discusses available demographic, social organizational, and cultural information.…

  17. Impact of short course hormonal therapy on overall and cancer specific survival after permanent prostate brachytherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Beyer, David C. . E-mail: dbeyer@azoncology.com; McKeough, Timothy; Thomas, Theresa

    2005-04-01

    Purpose: To review the impact of prior hormonal therapy on 10-year overall and prostate cancer specific survival after primary brachytherapy. Methods and Materials: A retrospective review was performed on the Arizona Oncology Services tumor registry for 2,378 consecutive permanent prostate brachytherapy cases from 1988 through 2001. Hormonal therapy was administered before the implant in 464 patients for downsizing of the prostate or at the discretion of the referring physician. All deceased patients with known clinical recurrence were considered to have died of prostate cancer, irrespective of the immediate cause of death. Risk groups were defined, with 1,135 favorable (prostate-specific antigen [PSA] < 10, Gleason < 7, Stage T1-T2a), 787 intermediate (single adverse feature), and 456 unfavorable (two or more adverse features) patients. Kaplan-Meier actuarial survival curves were generated for both overall and cause-specific survival from the time of treatment. Multivariate analysis was performed to assess the impact of hormonal intervention in comparison with known risk factors of grade, PSA, and age. Results: With follow-up ranging up to 12.6 years and a median of 4.1 year, a total of 474 patients died, with 67 recorded as due to prostate cancer. Overall and cause-specific 10-year survival rates are 43% and 88%, respectively. Overall survival is 44% for the hormone naive patients, compared with 20% for the hormone-treated cohort (p = 0.02). The cancer-specific survival is 89% vs. 81% for the same groups (p = 0.133). Multivariate analysis confirms the significance of age > 70 years (p = 0.0013), Gleason score {>=} 7 (p = 0.0005), and prior hormone use (p = 0.0065) on overall survival. Conclusions: At 10 years, in prostate cancer patients receiving brachytherapy, overall survival is worse in men receiving neoadjuvant hormonal therapy, compared with hormone naive patients. This does not appear to be due to other known risk factors for survival (i.e., stage, grade

  18. Interactive effects of senescence and natural disturbance on the annual survival probabilities of snail kites

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reichert, Brian E.; Martin, J.; Kendall, William L.; Cattau, Christopher E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

    2010-01-01

    Individuals in wild populations face risks associated with both intrinsic (i.e. aging) and external (i.e. environmental) sources of mortality. Condition-dependent mortality occurs when there is an interaction between such factors; however, few studies have clearly demonstrated condition-dependent mortality and some have even argued that condition-dependent mortality does not occur in wild avian populations. Using large sample sizes (2084 individuals, 3746 re-sights) of individual-based longitudinal data collected over a 33 year period (1976-2008) on multiple cohorts, we used a capture-mark-recapture framework to model age-dependent survival in the snail kite Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus population in Florida. Adding to the growing amount of evidence for actuarial senescence in wild populations, we found evidence of senescent declines in survival probabilities in adult kites. We also tested the hypothesis that older kites experienced condition-dependent mortality during a range-wide drought event (2000-2002). The results provide convincing evidence that the annual survival probability of senescent kites was disproportionately affected by the drought relative to the survival probability of prime-aged adults. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence of condition-dependent mortality to be demonstrated in a wild avian population, a finding which challenges recent conclusions drawn in the literature. Our study suggests that senescence and condition-dependent mortality can affect the demography of wild avian populations. Accounting for these sources of variation may be particularly important to appropriately compute estimates of population growth rate, and probabilities of quasi-extinctions.

  19. Offering Lung Cancer Screening to High-Risk Medicare Beneficiaries Saves Lives and Is Cost-Effective: An Actuarial Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Pyenson, Bruce S.; Henschke, Claudia I.; Yankelevitz, David F.; Yip, Rowena; Dec, Ellynne

    2014-01-01

    Background By a wide margin, lung cancer is the most significant cause of cancer death in the United States and worldwide. The incidence of lung cancer increases with age, and Medicare beneficiaries are often at increased risk. Because of its demonstrated effectiveness in reducing mortality, lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) imaging will be covered without cost-sharing starting January 1, 2015, by nongrandfathered commercial plans. Medicare is considering coverage for lung cancer screening. Objective To estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness (ie, cost per life-year saved) of LDCT lung cancer screening of the Medicare population at high risk for lung cancer. Methods Medicare costs, enrollment, and demographics were used for this study; they were derived from the 2012 Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) beneficiary files and were forecast to 2014 based on CMS and US Census Bureau projections. Standard life and health actuarial techniques were used to calculate the cost and cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening. The cost, incidence rates, mortality rates, and other parameters chosen by the authors were taken from actual Medicare data, and the modeled screenings are consistent with Medicare processes and procedures. Results Approximately 4.9 million high-risk Medicare beneficiaries would meet criteria for lung cancer screening in 2014. Without screening, Medicare patients newly diagnosed with lung cancer have an average life expectancy of approximately 3 years. Based on our analysis, the average annual cost of LDCT lung cancer screening in Medicare is estimated to be $241 per person screened. LDCT screening for lung cancer in Medicare beneficiaries aged 55 to 80 years with a history of ≥30 pack-years of smoking and who had smoked within 15 years is low cost, at approximately $1 per member per month. This assumes that 50% of these patients were screened. Such screening is also highly cost-effective, at <$19,000 per life

  20. Survival and Success Rates of Dental Implants Placed Using Osteotome Sinus Floor Elevation Without Added Bone Grafting: A Retrospective Study with a Follow-up of up to 10 Years.

    PubMed

    French, David; Nadji, Nabil; Shariati, Batoul; Hatzimanolakis, Penny; Larjava, Hannu

    2016-01-01

    This retrospective study with a follow-up period of 4 months to 10 years evaluated survival, success, and complication rates of implants placed using osteotome sinus floor elevation (OSFE) without added bone grafting. A total of 926 implants were placed, including 530 short implants (6 mm to 8.5 mm) and 209 implants in low residual bone height (RBH) (< 5 mm). Bone levels were evaluated at approximately 3 months and at 1, 3, and 5 years, and in some cases up to 10 years after implants were placed. The implant survival rate was 98.3% at the 5-year follow-up. Twelve of the 926 implants failed (6 preprosthetic, 6 postprosthetic). The success rate was 95.4% at a threshold of less than 1 mm of bone loss for combined systems (Straumann; Nobel Biocare). Short implant survival and success rates were statistically comparable to conventional-length implants. Low-RBH implants had a lower but acceptable survival rate of 95.7%. Adverse events were rare, with one case of infection and zero cases of vertigo reported. The findings of this study indicate that implant placement with OSFE without added bone graft is highly successful, even when short implants are used in low RBH.

  1. Supplementation with apple enriched with L-arginine may improve metabolic control and survival rate in alloxan-induced diabetic rats.

    PubMed

    Escudero, Andrea; Petzold, Guillermo; Moreno, Jorge; Gonzalez, Marcelo; Junod, Julio; Aguayo, Claudio; Acurio, Jesenia; Escudero, Carlos

    2013-01-01

    Supplementation with L-arginine or fresh food with high content of this amino acid is associated with favorable effects in the metabolic control of diabetes. We aimed to determine whether supplementation with apples enriched with L-arginine offer additional benefits compared to L-arginine by itself in a preclinical study of diabetes. This study combines food-engineer technologies with in vivo and in vitro analysis. In vitro experiments show that cells derived from non-diabetic animals and exposed to high glucose (25 mM, 12 H) and cells isolated from alloxan-induced diabetic animals exhibited a reduction (∼50%) in the L-arginine uptake. This effect was reverted by L-arginine pretreatment (12 H) in both the normal and diabetes-derived cells. In preclinical studies, normoglycemic (n = 25) and diabetic groups (n = 50) were divided into subgroups that received either L-arginine (375 mg/kg per 10 days) or apple enriched with L-arginine or vehicle (control). In a preliminary analysis, supplementation with L-arginine by itself (50%) or apple enriched with L-arginine (100%) improve survival rate in the diabetic group compared to control (0%) at the end of the follow up (17 days). This phenomenon was associated with a partial but sustained high plasma level of L-arginine, as well as plasma concentration of nitrites and insulin in the L-arginine or apple + L-arginine groups after supplementation. Apple + L-arginine supplementation in diabetic animals induced the highest and longest effects in the level of these three markers among the studied groups. Therefore, apple enriched by L-arginine offers more benefits than L-arginine by itself in this preclinical study.

  2. Hydrophobic Surfaces of Spacecraft Components Enhance the Aggregation of Microorganisms and May Lead to Higher Survival Rates of Bacteria on Mars Landers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schuerger, Andrew C.; Kern, Roger G.

    2004-01-01

    In order to minimize the forward contamination of Mars, spacecraft are assembled under cleanroom conditions that require several procedures to clean and sterilize components. Surface characteristics of spacecraft materials may contribute to microbial survival on the surface of Mars by protecting spores from sterilizing agents, including UV irradiation. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of surface characteristics of several spacecraft materials on the survival of Bacillus subtilis spores under simulated Martian conditions.

  3. Actuarial assessment of sex offender recidivism risk: a cross-validation of the RRASOR and the Static-99 in Sweden.

    PubMed

    Sjöstedt, G; Långström, N

    2001-12-01

    We cross-validated two actuarial risk assessment tools, the RRASOR (R. K. Hanson, 1997) and the Static-99 (R. K. Hanson & D. Thornton, 1999), in a retrospective follow-up (mean follow-up time = 3.69 years) of all sex offenders released from Swedish prisons during 1993-1997 (N = 1,400, all men, age > or =18 years). File-based data were collected by a researcher blind to the outcome (registered criminal recidivism), and individual risk factors as well as complete instrument characteristics were explored. Both the RRASOR and the Static-99 showed similar and moderate predictive accuracy for sexual reconvictions whereas the Static-99 exhibited a significantly higher accuracy for the prediction of any violent recidivism as compared to the RRASOR. Although particularly the Static-99 proved moderately robust as an actuarial measure of recidivism risk among sexual offenders in Sweden, both procedures may need further evaluation, for example, with sex offender subpopulations differing ethnically or with respect to offense characteristics. The usefulness of actuarial methods for the assessment of sex offender recidivism risk is discussed in the context of current practice.

  4. Accuracy of actuarial procedures for assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk may vary across ethnicity.

    PubMed

    Långström, Niklas

    2004-04-01

    Little is known about whether the accuracy of tools for assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk holds across ethnic minority offenders. I investigated the predictive validity across ethnicity for the RRASOR and the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment procedures in a national cohort of all adult male sex offenders released from prison in Sweden 1993-1997. Subjects ordered out of Sweden upon release from prison were excluded and remaining subjects (N = 1303) divided into three subgroups based on citizenship. Eighty-three percent of the subjects were of Nordic ethnicity, and non-Nordic citizens were either of non-Nordic European (n = 49, hereafter called European) or African Asian descent (n = 128). The two tools were equally accurate among Nordic and European sexual offenders for the prediction of any sexual and any violent nonsexual recidivism. In contrast, neither measure could differentiate African Asian sexual or violent recidivists from nonrecidivists. Compared to European offenders, AfricanAsian offenders had more often sexually victimized a nonrelative or stranger, had higher Static-99 scores, were younger, more often single, and more often homeless. The results require replication, but suggest that the promising predictive validity seen with some risk assessment tools may not generalize across offender ethnicity or migration status. More speculatively, different risk factors or causal chains might be involved in the development or persistence of offending among minority or immigrant sexual abusers.

  5. The ethical implications of Paul Meehl's work on comparing clinical versus actuarial prediction methods.

    PubMed

    Dawes, Robyn M

    2005-10-01

    Paul E. Meehl's work comparing statistical versus actuarial prediction-and the large body of research that followed by others on the same topic-was mainly theoretical and empirical. Meehl also suggested that this work led to a "practical" conclusion, which was quite strong. The author argues that, in addition, it leads to an ethical conclusion, equally strong. Whether the scientific findings are combined with an overarching ethical principle that the best predictions possible should be made for clients, or whether these findings are framed as delineating what can be done for clients-and that clinicians ought not to attempt to do what they cannot-the conclusion is the same. Whenever statistical prediction rules (SPR's) are available for making a relevant prediction, they should be used in preference to intuition. Any modification of these rules should be systematic and subject to the same type of evaluation originally used to assess the SPR's themselves. It is even possible to develop near-optimal rules in new situations. Providing service that assumes that clinicians "can do better" simply based on self-confidence or plausibility in the absence of evidence that they can actually do so is simply unethical.

  6. Survival after attempted surgical resection and intraoperative radiation therapy for pancreatic and periampullary adenocarcinoma

    SciTech Connect

    O'Connor, John K.; Sause, William T. . E-mail: ldwsause@ihc.com; Hazard, Lisa J.; Noyes, R. Dirk

    2005-11-15

    Purpose: To evaluate a single institution's experience with intraoperative radiation therapy (IORT) in combination with attempted surgical resection for pancreatic and periampullary adenocarcinoma. Methods and Materials: From May 1986 until June 2001, 77 patients at LDS Hospital underwent attempted surgical resection and IORT for pancreatic or periampullary adenocarcinoma. A potentially curative resection was defined as surgery with negative or microscopic positive margins. No patients had metastatic disease at the time of surgery and IORT. Forty-four patients with tumors located in the pancreas and 9 patients with periampullary tumors underwent potentially curative surgical resection and IORT. Twenty-four patients had pancreatic tumors deemed unresectable and underwent surgical bypass and IORT. Actuarial survival was calculated from the date of IORT until last follow-up or death by use of the Kaplan-Meier method. Results: Patients undergoing a potentially curative resection and IORT for periampullary adenocarcinoma had a median survival of 167 months and a 56% 5-year actuarial survival, compared with a median survival of 16 months and a 19% 5-year actuarial survival for patients undergoing the same treatment for pancreatic adenocarcinoma (p = 0.03). Patients with unresectable disease who underwent bypass and IORT had a median survival of 11 months and a 0% 3-year survival, significantly worse than patients able to undergo surgical resection and IORT (p = 0.0002). The operative mortality for all patients undergoing potentially curative resection and IORT was 3.7%. Conclusions: Intraoperative radiation therapy is well tolerated and does not increase the morbidity or mortality of potentially curative surgical resection for pancreatic or periampullary adenocarcinoma. Patients with periampullary adenocarcinoma have a better prognosis than those with pancreatic adenocarcinoma, and patients with unresectable pancreatic disease fared worse.

  7. Preoperative [18F]Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography Standardized Uptake Value of Neck Lymph Nodes Predicts Neck Cancer Control and Survival Rates in Patients With Oral Cavity Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Pathologically Positive Lymph Nodes

    SciTech Connect

    Liao, C.-T.; Chang, J.T.-C.; Wang, H.-M.; Ng, S.-H.; Hsueh, C.; Lee, L.-Y.; Lin, C.-H.; Chen, I-H.; Huang, S.-F.

    2009-07-15

    Purpose: Survival in oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) depends heavily on locoregional control. In this prospective study, we sought to investigate whether preoperative maximum standardized uptake value of the neck lymph nodes (SUVnodal-max) may predict prognosis in OSCC patients. Methods and Materials: A total of 120 OSCC patients with pathologically positive lymph nodes were investigated. All subjects underwent a [18F]fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) scan within 2 weeks before radical surgery and neck dissection. All patients were followed up for at least 24 months after surgery or until death. Postoperative adjuvant therapy was performed in the presence of pathologic risk factors. Optimal cutoff values of SUVnodal-max were chosen based on 5-year disease-free survival (DFS), disease-specific survival (DSS), and overall survival (OS). Independent prognosticators were identified by Cox regression analysis. Results: The median follow-up for surviving patients was 41 months. The optimal cutoff value for SUVnodal-max was 5.7. Multivariate analyses identified the following independent predictors of poor outcome: SUVnodal-max {>=}5.7 for the 5-year neck cancer control rate, distant metastatic rate, DFS, DSS, and extracapsular spread (ECS) for the 5-year DSS and OS. Among ECS patients, the presence of a SUVnodal-max {>=}5.7 identified patients with the worst prognosis. Conclusion: A SUVnodal-max of 5.7, either alone or in combination with ECS, is an independent prognosticator for 5-year neck cancer control and survival rates in OSCC patients with pathologically positive lymph nodes.

  8. High-dose total-body irradiation and autologous marrow reconstitution in dogs: dose-rate-related acute toxicity and fractionation-dependent long-term survival

    SciTech Connect

    Deeg, H.J.; Storb, R.; Weiden, P.L.; Schumacher, D.; Shulman, H.; Graham, T.; Thomas, E.D.

    1981-11-01

    Beagle dogs treated by total-body irradiation (TBI) were given autologous marrow grafts in order to avoid death from marrow toxicity. Acute and delayed non-marrow toxicities of high single-dose (27 dogs) and fractionated TBI (20 dogs) delivered at 0.05 or 0.1 Gy/min were compared. Fractionated TBI was given in increments of 2 Gy every 6 hr for three increments per day. Acute toxicity and early mortality (<1 month) at identical total irradiation doses were comparable for dogs given fractionated or single-dose TBI. With single-dose TBI, 14, 16, and 18 Gy, respectively, given at 0.05 Gy/min, 0/5, 5/5, and 2/2 dogs died from acute toxicity; with 10, 12, and 14 Gy, respectively, given at 0.1 Gy/min, 1/5, 4/5, and 5/5 dogs died acutely. With fractionated TBI, 14 and 16 Gy, respectively, given at 0.1 Gy/min, 1/5, 4/5, and 2/2 dogs died auctely. Early deaths were due to radiation enteritis with or without associated septicemia (29 dogs; less than or equal to Day 10). Three dogs given 10 Gy of TBI at 0.1 Gy/min died from bacterial pneumonia; one (Day 18) had been given fractionated and two (Days 14, 22) single-dose TBI. Fifteen dogs survived beyond 1 month; eight of these had single-dose TBI (10-14 Gy) and all died within 7 months of irradiation from a syndrome consisting of hepatic damage, pancreatic fibrosis, malnutrition, wasting, and anemia. Seven of the 15 had fractionated TBI, and only one (14 Gy) died on Day 33 from hepatic failure, whereas 6 (10-14 Gy) are alive and well 250 to 500 days after irradiation. In conclusion, fractionated TBI did not offer advantages over single-dose TBI with regard to acute toxicity and early mortality; rather, these were dependent upon the total dose of TBI. The total acutely tolerated dose was dependent upon the exposure rate; however, only dogs given fractionated TBI became healthy long-term survivors.

  9. Observing the tabarru' rate in a family takaful

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ismail, Hamizun bin

    2013-04-01

    Takaful system has a built-in mechanism to counter any over-pricing policies of the insurance companies because whatever may be the premium charged, the surplus would normally go back to the participants in proportion to their contributions. In contrast to a conventional insurance company, insurance surplus is not supposed to be a source of return for a takaful company. Any surplus that is a result of overpricing or over-charging is required to be returned back to takaful participants. Similarly, in case of under-pricing, policyholders may be asked to meet any deficit or negative difference between the policyholders' contribution and the actual claims, benefits and compensation. The objective of this study is to measure the efficacy of a family takaful contract through a simple actuarial model based on deterministic survival assumption. In addition, a linear tabarru' rate is introduced. The results show that the linear assumption on the tabarru' rate has an advantage over the flat rate as far as the risk of the prospective loss is concerned.

  10. Excellent Local Control Rates and Distinctive Patterns of Failure in Myxoid Liposarcoma Treated With Conservation Surgery and Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Guadagnolo, B. Ashleigh Zagars, Gunar K.; Ballo, Matthew T.; Patel, Shreyaskumar R.; Lewis, Valerae O.; Benjamin, Robert S.; Pollock, Raphael E.

    2008-03-01

    Purpose: To evaluate the local control rates and patterns of metastatic relapse in patients with localized myxoid liposarcoma treated with conservation surgery and radiotherapy (RT). Patients and Methods: Between 1960 and 2003, 127 patients with non-metastatic myxoid liposarcoma were treated with conservation surgery and RT at our institution. The median patient age was 39 years (range, 14-79 years). Of the 127 patients, 46% underwent preoperative RT (median dose, 50 Gy) and 54% underwent postoperative RT (median dose, 60 Gy). Also, 28% received doxorubicin-based chemotherapy as a part of their treatment. Results: The median follow-up was 9.1 years. The overall survival rate at 5 and 10 years was 87% and 79%, respectively. The corresponding disease-free survival rates were 81% and 73%. The local control rate at {>=}5 years was 97%. The actuarial rate of distant metastases at 5 and 10 years was 15% and 24%, respectively. Of the 27 patients who developed distant metastases, 48% did so in the retroperitoneum, 22% in other extrapulmonary soft tissues, 22% in the lung, 15% in bone, and 4% in the liver. Conclusion: The results of our study have shown that RT and conservation surgery for localized myxoid liposarcoma provide excellent local control. Distant metastatic relapse tended to occur in the retroperitoneum and other nonpulmonary soft tissues. Therefore, staging and surveillance imaging should include the abdomen and pelvis, as well as the thorax, for patients with localized myxoid liposarcoma.

  11. Results and survival after photodynamic therapy in early-stage esophageal carcinoma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spinelli, Pasquale; Mancini, Andrea; Dal Fante, Marco; Meroni, Emmanuele; Jasinskas, Algirdas

    1996-01-01

    From January 1985 to December 1994, 23 early stage carcinomas of the esophagus were treated by photodynamic therapy in 21 patients. The stage of the tumors was assessed by esophagoscopy with multiple biopsies, CT scan and, from June 1991, also by endoscopic ultrasonography: 7 lesions were classified as carcinoma in situ (Tis) and 16 as invasive (T1). The photosensitizers used for PDT were hematoporphyrin derivative 3 mg/kg in 4 patients and dihematoporphyrin ether 2 mg/kg in 17. Light irradiation was performed using an Argon-dye laser system at a wavelength of 630 nm with an average energy of 50 J/cm2 and 70 J/cm2 for the treatment of Tis and T1, respectively. A complete response was achieved in 17/23 (74%) tumors, 15/21 (71%) patients. In the follow-up period from 6 to 78 months (median 36 months) 3 recurrences occurred 6, 12, and 14 months after PDT, respectively. Seven patients died due to concomitant diseases, not related to tumor progression. The actuarial survival rate was 95%, 75% and 37% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. Complications included 1 case of sunburn and 2 cases of esophageal stenosis at the treatment site, that gradually responded to endoscopic bougienage.

  12. Upregulation of PIM2 by Underexpression of MicroRNA-135-5p Improves Survival Rates of Skin Allografts by Suppressing Apoptosis of Fibroblast Cells

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Hongtu

    2017-01-01

    Background It has been reported that miR-135-5p is involved with many diseases. In this study, we aimed at define the relationship between miR-135-5p level and burn patient survival after skin transplantation. Material/Methods Expression of miR-135-5p and PIM2 was measured using real-time PCR and Western blot analysis in the skin samples collected from burn patients who received skin graft or in the fibroblast cells transfected with miR-135-5p mimics or inhibitors. The regulatory association between miR-135-5p and PIM2 was verified using bioinformatics analysis and luciferase assay. Results The expression level of miR-135-5p was determined in 60 tissue samples divided into 2 groups based on the presence of rejection (long survival n=30, and short survival n=30). We found that miR-135-5p was substantially downregulated in the long survival group. We then searched the miRNA database online with the “seed sequence” located within the 3′-UTR of the target gene, and then validated PIM2 to be the direct gene via luciferase reporter assay system. We also established the negative regulatory relationship between miR-135-5p and PIM2 via studying the relative luciferase activity. We also conducted real-time PCR and Western blot analysis to study the mRNA and protein expression level of PIM2 among different groups (long survival n=30, short survival n=30) or cells treated with scramble control, miR-135-5p mimics, PIM2 siRNA, and miR-135-5p inhibitors, indicating the negative regulatory relationship between MiR-135-5p and PIM2. We also conducted experiments to investigate the influence of miR-135-5p and PIM2 on viability and apoptosis of cells. The results showed miR-135-5p reduced the viability of cells, while PIM2 negatively interfered with the viability of cells, and miR-135-5p inhibited apoptosis and PIM2 suppressed apoptosis. Conclusions MiR-135-5p is involved with the prognosis of burn patients after skin transplantation. PIM2 is a virtual target of miR-135-5p, and

  13. Risk Factors Associated With Complication Rates of Becker-Type Expander Implants in Relation to Implant Survival: Review of 314 Implants in 237 Patients.

    PubMed

    Taboada-Suarez, Antonio; Brea-García, Beatriz; Magán-Muñoz, Fernando; Couto-González, Iván; González-Álvarez, Eduardo

    2015-12-01

    Although autologous tissue reconstruction is the best option for breast reconstruction, using implants is still a reliable and simple method, offering acceptable aesthetic results. Becker-type implants are permanent implants that offer a 1-stage reconstructive option. A retrospective study was carried out in our center reviewing the clinical reports of 237 patients, in whom a total of 314 Becker-type prostheses were implanted. Overall survival was calculated using a Kaplan-Meier estimate. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios. At the end of the study, 214 expanders (68.15%) presented no complications, 40 (12.47%) developed significant capsular contracture, in 27 (8.60%) infection occurred, 24 (7.64%) suffered minor complications, and 9 (2.87%) ruptured. The mean survival time of the expanders was 120.41 months (95% CI: 109.62, 131.19). Radiotherapy, chemotherapy, high Molecular Immunology Borstel, age, mastectomy performed previously to the implant, ductal carcinoma, advanced tumoral stage, experience of the surgeon, and Becker 35-type implants were significantly related to a high number of complications in relation to the survival of the implants. Cox regression analysis revealed that the main risk factors for the survival of expander implants included radiotherapy and surgeon experience. The complication hazard ratio or relative risk caused by these 2 factors was 1.976 and 1.680, respectively. One-stage reconstruction using Becker-type expanders is an appropriate, simple, and reliable option in delayed breast reconstruction in patients who have not received radiotherapy and as long as the procedure is carried out by surgeons skilled in the technique.

  14. Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act; standards related to essential health benefits, actuarial value and accreditation. Final rule.

    PubMed

    2013-02-25

    This final rule sets forth standards for health insurance issuers consistent with title I of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, as amended by the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010, referred to collectively as the Affordable Care Act. Specifically, this final rule outlines Exchange and issuer standards related to coverage of essential health benefits and actuarial value. This rule also finalizes a timeline for qualified health plans to be accredited in Federally-facilitated Exchanges and amends regulations providing an application process for the recognition of additional accrediting entities for purposes of certification of qualified health plans.

  15. Surface Characteristics of Spacecraft Components Affect the Aggregation of Microorganisms and May Lead to Different Survival Rates of Bacteria on Mars Landers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuerger, Andrew W.; Richards, Jeffrey T.; Hintze, Paul E.; Kern, Roger G.

    2005-08-01

    Layers of dormant endospores of Bacillus subtilis HA101 were applied to eight different spacecraft materials and exposed to martian conditions of low pressure (8.5 mbar), low temperature (-10°C), and high CO2 gas composition and irradiated with a Mars-normal ultraviolet (UV-visible- near-infrared spectrum. Bacterial layers were exposed to either 1 min or 1 h of Mars-normal UV irradiation, which simulated clear-sky conditions on equatorial Mars (0.1 tau). When exposed to 1 min of Mars UV irradiation, the numbers of viable endospores of B. subtilis were reduced three to four orders of magnitude for two brands of aluminum (Al), stainless steel, chemfilm-treated Al, clear-anodized Al, and black-anodized Al coupons. In contrast, bacterial survival was reduced only one to two orders of magnitude for endospores on the non-metal materials astroquartz and graphite composite when bacterial endospores were exposed to 1 min of Mars UV irradiation. When bacterial monolayers were exposed to 1 h of Mars UV irradiation, no viable bacteria were recovered from the six metal coupons listed above. In contrast, bacterial survival was reduced only two to three orders of magnitude for spore layers on astroquartz and graphite composite exposed to 1 h of Mars UV irradiation. Scanning electron microscopy images of the bacterial monolayers on all eight spacecraft materials revealed that endospores of B. subtilis formed large aggregates of multilayered spores on astroquartz and graphite composite, but not on the other six spacecraft materials. It is likely that the formation of multilayered aggregates of endospores on astroquartz and graphite composite is responsible for the enhanced survival of bacterial cells on these materials.

  16. Surface characteristics of spacecraft components affect the aggregation of microorganisms and may lead to different survival rates of bacteria on Mars landers.

    PubMed

    Schuerger, Andrew C; Richards, Jeffrey T; Hintze, Paul E; Kern, Roger G

    2005-08-01

    Layers of dormant endospores of Bacillus subtilis HA101 were applied to eight different spacecraft materials and exposed to martian conditions of low pressure (8.5 mbar), low temperature (-10 degrees C), and high CO(2) gas composition and irradiated with a Mars-normal ultraviolet (UV-visible- near-infrared spectrum. Bacterial layers were exposed to either 1 min or 1 h of Mars-normal UV irradiation, which simulated clear-sky conditions on equatorial Mars (0.1 tau). When exposed to 1 min of Mars UV irradiation, the numbers of viable endospores of B. subtilis were reduced three to four orders of magnitude for two brands of aluminum (Al), stainless steel, chemfilm-treated Al, clear-anodized Al, and black-anodized Al coupons. In contrast, bacterial survival was reduced only one to two orders of magnitude for endospores on the non-metal materials astroquartz and graphite composite when bacterial endospores were exposed to 1 min of Mars UV irradiation. When bacterial monolayers were exposed to 1 h of Mars UV irradiation, no viable bacteria were recovered from the six metal coupons listed above. In contrast, bacterial survival was reduced only two to three orders of magnitude for spore layers on astroquartz and graphite composite exposed to 1 h of Mars UV irradiation. Scanning electron microscopy images of the bacterial monolayers on all eight spacecraft materials revealed that endospores of B. subtilis formed large aggregates of multilayered spores on astroquartz and graphite composite, but not on the other six spacecraft materials. It is likely that the formation of multilayered aggregates of endospores on astroquartz and graphite composite is responsible for the enhanced survival of bacterial cells on these materials.

  17. Surface characteristics of spacecraft components affect the aggregation of microorganisms and may lead to different survival rates of bacteria on Mars landers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schuerger, Andrew C.; Richards, Jeffrey T.; Hintze, Paul E.; Kern, Roger G.

    2005-01-01

    Layers of dormant endospores of Bacillus subtilis HA101 were applied to eight different spacecraft materials and exposed to martian conditions of low pressure (8.5 mbar), low temperature (-10 degrees C), and high CO(2) gas composition and irradiated with a Mars-normal ultraviolet (UV-visible- near-infrared spectrum. Bacterial layers were exposed to either 1 min or 1 h of Mars-normal UV irradiation, which simulated clear-sky conditions on equatorial Mars (0.1 tau). When exposed to 1 min of Mars UV irradiation, the numbers of viable endospores of B. subtilis were reduced three to four orders of magnitude for two brands of aluminum (Al), stainless steel, chemfilm-treated Al, clear-anodized Al, and black-anodized Al coupons. In contrast, bacterial survival was reduced only one to two orders of magnitude for endospores on the non-metal materials astroquartz and graphite composite when bacterial endospores were exposed to 1 min of Mars UV irradiation. When bacterial monolayers were exposed to 1 h of Mars UV irradiation, no viable bacteria were recovered from the six metal coupons listed above. In contrast, bacterial survival was reduced only two to three orders of magnitude for spore layers on astroquartz and graphite composite exposed to 1 h of Mars UV irradiation. Scanning electron microscopy images of the bacterial monolayers on all eight spacecraft materials revealed that endospores of B. subtilis formed large aggregates of multilayered spores on astroquartz and graphite composite, but not on the other six spacecraft materials. It is likely that the formation of multilayered aggregates of endospores on astroquartz and graphite composite is responsible for the enhanced survival of bacterial cells on these materials.

  18. ROCK inhibitor Y-27632 increases thaw-survival rates and preserves stemness and differentiation potential of human Wharton's jelly stem cells after cryopreservation.

    PubMed

    Gauthaman, Kalamegam; Fong, Chui-Yee; Subramanian, Arjunan; Biswas, Arijit; Bongso, Ariff

    2010-12-01

    The ROCK inhibitor Y-27632 inhibits apoptosis and increases proliferation of frozen-thawed cells. We examined the role of Y-27632 on human umbilical cord Wharton's jelly stem cells (hWJSCs) for (1) thaw-survival (2) proliferation and (3) preservation of stemness and differentiation potential after cryopreservation. hWJSCs were allotted to 4 groups [Gp I: Untreated hWJSC controls; Gp II: Pretreatment with Y-27632 (10 μM) for 24 h before freezing; Gp III: Y-27632 (10 μM) in freezing medium and Gp IV: Pretreatment with Y-27632 (10 μM) for 24 h and inclusion in freezing medium]. All groups were frozen using a rapid freezing method and stored at -196°C in liquid nitrogen for 90 days before evaluation for apoptosis, cell proliferation, stemness and differentiation. After thawing, Groups II, III and IV showed improved cell attachment, increased thaw-survival (live/dead cell counts) and increased cell proliferation (Trypan blue and MTT assay) compared to controls. CD marker stemness profiles, morphology and normal karyotypes were maintained in the treatment groups after thawing and there was no obvious evidence of apoptosis (Annexin V-FITC and TUNEL assays). After thawing, qRT-PCR demonstrated up-regulation of the anti-apoptotic BCL2 gene and down-regulation of the pro-apoptotic BAX gene and cell cycle regulators (P53 and P21) in the treatment groups. Treated frozen-thawed hWJSCs from all groups differentiated into a neuronal phenotype (neuronal morphology and expression of GFAP, β-3 tubulin and SOX2). Increased thaw-survival and retention of stemness and differentiation potential in hWJSCs following cryopreservation is useful for their storage in cord blood banks for future regenerative medicine purposes.

  19. Clinical features and outcome of T-lineage acute lymphoblastic leukemia in adults: a low initial white blood cell count, as well as a high count predict decreased survival rates.

    PubMed

    Yanada, Masamitsu; Jinnai, Itsuro; Takeuchi, Jin; Ueda, Takanori; Miyawaki, Shuichi; Tsuzuki, Motohiro; Hatta, Yoshihiro; Usui, Noriko; Wada, Hideho; Morii, Takeshi; Matsuda, Mitsuhiro; Kiyoi, Hitoshi; Okada, Masaya; Honda, Sumihisa; Miyazaki, Yasushi; Ohno, Ryuzo; Naoe, Tomoki

    2007-07-01

    Although biological and clinical features differ between B-lineage acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) and T-lineage ALL (T-ALL), there have been few reports that focused on the prognosis for T-ALL in adults, primarily due to its rarity. Here, we studied the long-term outcomes and prognostic factors specific for adult T-ALL by combining patient data from the three prospective trials conducted by the Japan Adult Leukemia Study Group (JALSG). Among 559 patients whose immunophenotypes could be evaluated, 87 (15.6%) were identified as T-ALL. Of them, 66 patients (75.8%) achieved complete remission, and relapse occurred in 41 patients. With a median follow-up for surviving patients of 7.5 years, the probability of overall survival was 35.0% at 5 years. Risk factor analysis revealed that serum albumin levels, initial white blood cell (WBC) counts, and age had independent values for predicting survival. For WBC, not only the high-count group (50 x 10(9)l(-1) or higher), but also the low-count group (less than 3 x 10(9)l(-1)) showed a significantly lower survival rates than the intermediate-count group (p=0.0055 and 0.0037, respectively). Although our findings need confirmation, these results will be helpful in the identification of prognostically distinct subgroups within adult T-ALL.

  20. Application of a direct fluorescence-based live/dead staining combined with fluorescence in situ hybridization for assessment of survival rate of Bacteroides spp. in drinking water.

    PubMed

    Savichtcheva, Olga; Okayama, Noriko; Ito, Tsukasa; Okabe, Satoshi

    2005-11-05

    To evaluate the viability and survival ability of fecal Bacteroides spp. in environmental waters, a fluorescence-based live/dead staining method using ViaGram Red+ Bacterial gram stain and viability kit was combined with fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) with 16S rRNA-targeted oligonucleotide probe (referred as LDS-FISH). The proposed LDS-FISH was a direct and reliable method to detect fecal Bacteroides cells and their viability at single-cell level in complex microbial communities. The pure culture of Bacteroides fragilis and whole human feces were dispersed in aerobic drinking water and incubated at different water temperatures (4 degrees C, 13 degrees C, 18 degrees C, and 24 degrees C), and then the viability of B. fragilis and fecal Bacteroides spp. were determined by applying the LDS-FISH. The results revealed that temperature and the presence of oxygen have significant effects on the survival ability. Increasing the temperature resulted in a rapid decrease in the viability of both pure cultured B. fragilis cells and fecal Bacteroides spp. The live pure cultured B. fragilis cells could be found at the level of detection in drinking water for 48 h of incubation at 24 degrees C, whereas live fecal Bacteroides spp. could be detected for only 4 h of incubation at 24 degrees C. The proposed LDS-FISH method should provide useful quantitative information on the presence and viability of Bacteroides spp., a potential alternative fecal indicator, in environmental waters.

  1. Long-term graft survival after conversion from cyclosporin to azathioprine 1 year after renal transplantation. A prospective, randomized study from 1 to 6 years after transplantation.

    PubMed

    Pedersen, E B; Hansen, H E; Kornerup, H J; Madsen, S; Sørensen, A W

    1993-01-01

    Cyclosporin has improved graft survival after renal transplantation, but cyclosporin nephrotoxicity is a severe clinical problem. Conversion from cyclosporin to azathioprine 1 year after transplantation might improve long-term graft survival by avoidance of cyclosporin nephrotoxicity. After treatment with cyclosporin and prednisolone during the first year after renal transplantation, 106 patients were consecutively randomized to treatment with either azathioprine and prednisolone or cyclosporin and prednisolone in a prospective, controlled study during the following 5 years, i.e. 6 years after transplantation. Actuarial estimates of graft survival rates after inclusion in the study were obtained by the product-limit method of Kaplan-Meier, and the Mantel-Cox log rank test was used to compare the two treatment regimens. When the end-points in the analyses were cessation of graft function or withdrawal of immunosuppressive treatment due to side-effects, and when patients alive with graft function or who had died with a functioning graft were treated as censored observations, graft survival 5 years after inclusion in the study was 57.7 +/- 5.2% in the total material and was the same in both the azathioprine group (52.4 +/- 7.7%) and the cyclosporin group (63.3 +/- 6.7%) (log rank = 0.40, P = 0.53). When cessation of graft function was the only end-point, graft survival 5 years after inclusion in the study was 73.7 +/- 5.2% for the total material with no significant differences between the two groups (log rank = 0.58, P = 0.45).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  2. 42 CFR 422.308 - Adjustments to capitation rates, benchmarks, bids, and payments.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Adjustments to capitation rates, benchmarks, bids... Medicare Advantage Organizations § 422.308 Adjustments to capitation rates, benchmarks, bids, and payments... the determination of actuarial equivalence. (2) Risk adjustment: Health status—(i) Data collection....

  3. Allogeneic stem cell transplantation for adult Philadelphia chromosome-negative acute lymphocytic leukemia: comparable survival rates but different risk factors between related and unrelated transplantation in first complete remission.

    PubMed

    Nishiwaki, Satoshi; Inamoto, Yoshihiro; Sakamaki, Hisashi; Kurokawa, Mineo; Iida, Hiroatsu; Ogawa, Hiroyasu; Fukuda, Takahiro; Ozawa, Yukiyasu; Kobayashi, Naoki; Kasai, Masanobu; Mori, Takehiko; Iwato, Koji; Yoshida, Takashi; Onizuka, Makoto; Kawa, Keisei; Morishima, Yasuo; Suzuki, Ritsuro; Atsuta, Yoshiko; Miyamura, Koichi

    2010-11-18

    To identify factors to improve the outcomes of related and unrelated allogeneic stem cell transplantations (allo-SCT) for Philadelphia chromosome-negative acute lymphocytic leukemia (Ph(-) ALL) in the first complete remission (CR1), we retrospectively analyzed 1139 Ph(-) ALL patients using the registry data, particularly the details of 641 patients transplanted in CR1. Overall survival was significantly superior among patients transplanted in CR1, but no significant difference was observed between related and unrelated allo-SCTs (related vs unrelated: 65% vs 62% at 4 years, respectively; P = .19). Among patients transplanted in CR1, relapse rates were significantly higher in related allo-SCT compared with unrelated allo-SCT, and multivariate analysis demonstrated that less than 6 months from diagnosis to allo-SCT alone was associated with relapse. On the other hand, nonrelapse mortality (NRM) was significantly higher in unrelated allo-SCT compared with related allo-SCT, and multivariate analysis demonstrated that 10 months or longer from diagnosis to allo-SCT, human leukocyte antigen mismatch, and abnormal karyotype were associated with NRM. In conclusion, our study showed comparable survival rates but different relapse rates, NRM rates, and risk factors between related and unrelated allo-SCTs. After a close consideration of these factors, the outcome of allo-SCT for adult Ph(-) ALL in CR1 could be improved.

  4. Effect of air-blast drying and the presence of protectants on the viability of yeast entrapped in calcium alginate beads with an aim to improve the