Adapting Scott and Bruce's General Decision-Making Style Inventory to Patient Decision Making in Provider Choice.

PubMed

Fischer, Sophia; Soyez, Katja; Gurtner, Sebastian

2015-05-01

Research testing the concept of decision-making styles in specific contexts such as health care-related choices is missing. Therefore, we examine the contextuality of Scott and Bruce's (1995) General Decision-Making Style Inventory with respect to patient choice situations. Scott and Bruce's scale was adapted for use as a patient decision-making style inventory. In total, 388 German patients who underwent elective joint surgery responded to a questionnaire about their provider choice. Confirmatory factor analyses within 2 independent samples assessed factorial structure, reliability, and validity of the scale. The final 4-dimensional, 13-item patient decision-making style inventory showed satisfactory psychometric properties. Data analyses supported reliability and construct validity. Besides the intuitive, dependent, and avoidant style, a new subdimension, called "comparative" decision-making style, emerged that originated from the rational dimension of the general model. This research provides evidence for the contextuality of decision-making style to specific choice situations. Using a limited set of indicators, this report proposes the patient decision-making style inventory as valid and feasible tool to assess patients' decision propensities. © The Author(s) 2015.

Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management

PubMed Central

Johnson, Fred A.

2017-01-01

Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management implications and extensions. PMID:28800591

Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

2017-01-01

Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management implications and extensions.

A framework to investigate drivers of adaptation decisions in marine fishing: Evidence from urban, semi-urban and rural communities.

PubMed

Malakar, Krishna; Mishra, Trupti; Patwardhan, Anand

2018-05-11

Traditional fishing livelihoods need to adapt to changing fish catch/populations, led by numerous anthropogenic, environmental and climatic stressors. The decision to adapt can be influenced by a variety of socio-economic and perceptual factors. However, adaptation decision-making in fishing communities has rarely been studied. Based on previous literature and focus group discussions with community, this study identifies few prominent adaptation responses in marine fishing and proposes credible factors driving decisions to adopt them. Further, a household survey is conducted, and the association of these drivers with various adaptation strategies is examined among fisherfolk of Maharashtra (India). This statistical analysis is based on 601 responses collected across three regional fishing groups: urban, semi-urban and rural. Regional segregation is done to understand variability in decision-making among groups which might be having different socio-economic and perceptual attributes. The survey reveals that only few urban fishing households have been able to diversify into other livelihoods. While having economic capital increases the likelihood of adaptation among urban and semi-urban communities, rural fishermen are significantly driven by social capital. Perception of climate change affecting fish catch drives adoption of mechanized boats solely in urban region. But increasing number of extreme events affects decisions of semi-urban and rural fishermen. Further, rising pollution and trade competition is associated with adaptation responses in the urban and semi-urban community. Higher education might help fishermen choose convenient forms of adaptation. Also, cooperative membership and subsidies are critical in adaptation decisions. The framework and insights of the study suggest the importance of acknowledging differential decision-making of individuals and communities, for designing effective adaptation and capacity-building policies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Episodic memories predict adaptive value-based decision-making

PubMed Central

Murty, Vishnu; FeldmanHall, Oriel; Hunter, Lindsay E.; Phelps, Elizabeth A; Davachi, Lila

2016-01-01

Prior research illustrates that memory can guide value-based decision-making. For example, previous work has implicated both working memory and procedural memory (i.e., reinforcement learning) in guiding choice. However, other types of memories, such as episodic memory, may also influence decision-making. Here we test the role for episodic memory—specifically item versus associative memory—in supporting value-based choice. Participants completed a task where they first learned the value associated with trial unique lotteries. After a short delay, they completed a decision-making task where they could choose to re-engage with previously encountered lotteries, or new never before seen lotteries. Finally, participants completed a surprise memory test for the lotteries and their associated values. Results indicate that participants chose to re-engage more often with lotteries that resulted in high versus low rewards. Critically, participants not only formed detailed, associative memories for the reward values coupled with individual lotteries, but also exhibited adaptive decision-making only when they had intact associative memory. We further found that the relationship between adaptive choice and associative memory generalized to more complex, ecologically valid choice behavior, such as social decision-making. However, individuals more strongly encode experiences of social violations—such as being treated unfairly, suggesting a bias for how individuals form associative memories within social contexts. Together, these findings provide an important integration of episodic memory and decision-making literatures to better understand key mechanisms supporting adaptive behavior. PMID:26999046

What Learning Environments Help Improve Decision-Making?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Connor, Donna; Larkin, Paul; Williams, A. Mark

2017-01-01

Background: Decision-making is a key component of performance in sport. However, there has been minimal investigation of how coaches may adapt practice sessions to specifically develop decision-making. Purpose: The aim in this exploratory study was to investigate the pedagogical approaches coaches use to develop decision-making in soccer. Method:…

The Adaptability of Career Decision-Making Profiles: Associations with Self-Efficacy, Emotional Difficulties, and Decision Status

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Wagman-Rolnick, Halleli

2013-01-01

The present study investigated a new model for characterizing the way individuals make career decisions (career decision-making profiles [CDMP]). Using data from 285 students in a preacademic program, the present study assessed the association of the CDMP's dimensions with the Emotional and Personality-related Career decision-making Difficulties…

Adaptive management of natural resources-framework and issues

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.

2011-01-01

Adaptive management, an approach for simultaneously managing and learning about natural resources, has been around for several decades. Interest in adaptive decision making has grown steadily over that time, and by now many in natural resources conservation claim that adaptive management is the approach they use in meeting their resource management responsibilities. Yet there remains considerable ambiguity about what adaptive management actually is, and how it is to be implemented by practitioners. The objective of this paper is to present a framework and conditions for adaptive decision making, and discuss some important challenges in its application. Adaptive management is described as a two-phase process of deliberative and iterative phases, which are implemented sequentially over the timeframe of an application. Key elements, processes, and issues in adaptive decision making are highlighted in terms of this framework. Special emphasis is given to the question of geographic scale, the difficulties presented by non-stationarity, and organizational challenges in implementing adaptive management. ?? 2010.

Book review: Decision making in natural resource management: A structured adaptive approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fuller, Angela K.

2014-01-01

No abstract available.Book information: Decision Making in Natural Resource Management: A Structured Adaptive Approach. Michael J. Conroy and James T. Peterson, 2013. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, UK. 456 pp. $99.95 paperback. ISBN: 978-0-470-67174-0.

Systems identification and the adaptive management of waterfowl in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.; Nichols, J.D.

2001-01-01

Waterfowl management in the United States is one of the more visible conservation success stories in the United States. It is authorized and supported by appropriate legislative authorities, based on large-scale monitoring programs, and widely accepted by the public. The process is one of only a limited number of large-scale examples of effective collaboration between research and management, integrating scientific information with management in a coherent framework for regulatory decision-making. However, harvest management continues to face some serious technical problems, many of which focus on sequential identification of the resource system in a context of optimal decision-making. The objective of this paper is to provide a theoretical foundation of adaptive harvest management, the approach currently in use in the United States for regulatory decision-making. We lay out the legal and institutional framework for adaptive harvest management and provide a formal description of regulatory decision-making in terms of adaptive optimization. We discuss some technical and institutional challenges in applying adaptive harvest management and focus specifically on methods of estimating resource states for linear resource systems.

Understanding and applying principles of social cognition and decision making in adaptive environmental governance

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental governance systems are under greater pressure to adapt and to cope with increased social and ecological uncertainty from stressors like climate change. We review principles of social cognition and decision making that shape and constrain how environmental governance...

Nordic couples' decision-making processes during assisted reproduction treatments.

PubMed

Sol Olafsdottir, Helga; Wikland, Matts; Möller, Anders

2013-06-01

To study couples' perceptions of their decision-making process during the first three years of infertility treatments. This study is a part of a larger project studying the decision-making processes of 22 infertile heterosexual couples, recruited from fertility clinics in all five Nordic countries, over a three year period. A descriptive qualitative method was used. Process of decision-making during assisted reproduction treatments. Seventeen couples had succeeded in becoming parents after approximately three years. Our study suggests that the decision-making process during fertility treatments has three phases: (i) recognizing the decisions to be made, with subcategories; the driving force, mutual project, (ii) gathering knowledge and experience about the options, with subcategories; trust, patient competence, personalized support, and (iii) adapting decisions to possible options, with subcategories; strategic planning, adaption. The core category was "maintaining control in a situation of uncertainty." Two parallel processes affect couples' decision-making process, one within themselves and their relationship, and the other in their contact with the fertility clinic. Couples struggle to make decisions, trusting clinic personnel for guidance, knowledge, and understanding. Nevertheless, couples expressed disappointment with the clinics' reactions to their requests for shared decision-making. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reducing uncertainty about objective functions in adaptive management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.

2012-01-01

This paper extends the uncertainty framework of adaptive management to include uncertainty about the objectives to be used in guiding decisions. Adaptive decision making typically assumes explicit and agreed-upon objectives for management, but allows for uncertainty as to the structure of the decision process that generates change through time. Yet it is not unusual for there to be uncertainty (or disagreement) about objectives, with different stakeholders expressing different views not only about resource responses to management but also about the appropriate management objectives. In this paper I extend the treatment of uncertainty in adaptive management, and describe a stochastic structure for the joint occurrence of uncertainty about objectives as well as models, and show how adaptive decision making and the assessment of post-decision monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties of both kinds. Different degrees of association between model and objective uncertainty lead to different patterns of learning about objectives. ?? 2011.

The adaptive use of recognition in group decision making.

PubMed

Kämmer, Juliane E; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Reimer, Torsten; Schermuly, Carsten C

2014-06-01

Applying the framework of ecological rationality, the authors studied the adaptivity of group decision making. In detail, they investigated whether groups apply decision strategies conditional on their composition in terms of task-relevant features. The authors focused on the recognition heuristic, so the task-relevant features were the validity of the group members' recognition and knowledge, which influenced the potential performance of group strategies. Forty-three three-member groups performed an inference task in which they had to infer which of two German companies had the higher market capitalization. Results based on the choice data support the hypothesis that groups adaptively apply the strategy that leads to the highest theoretically achievable performance. Time constraints had no effect on strategy use but did have an effect on the proportions of different types of arguments. Possible mechanisms underlying the adaptive use of recognition in group decision making are discussed. © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Spatial education: improving conservation delivery through space-structured decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Clinton T.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Gannon, Jill J.

2013-01-01

Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making designed to guide management of natural resource systems when their behaviors are uncertain. Where decision making can be replicated across units of a landscape, learning can be accelerated, and biological processes can be understood in a larger spatial context. Broad-based partnerships among land management agencies, exemplified by Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (conservation partnerships created through the U.S. Department of the Interior), are potentially ideal environments for implementing spatially structured adaptive management programs.

Different profiles of decision making and physiology under varying levels of stress in trained military personnel.

PubMed

Gamble, Katherine R; Vettel, Jean M; Patton, Debra J; Eddy, Marianna D; Caroline Davis, F; Garcia, Javier O; Spangler, Derek P; Thayer, Julian F; Brooks, Justin R

2018-03-23

Decision making is one of the most vital processes we use every day, ranging from mundane decisions about what to eat to life-threatening choices such as how to avoid a car collision. Thus, the context in which our decisions are made is critical, and our physiology enables adaptive responses that account for how environmental stress influences our performance. The relationship between stress and decision making can additionally be affected by one's expertise in making decisions in high-threat environments, where experts can develop an adaptive response that mitigates the negative impacts of stress. In the present study, 26 male military personnel made friend/foe discriminations in an environment where we manipulated the level of stress. In the high-stress condition, participants received a shock when they incorrectly shot a friend or missed shooting a foe; in the low-stress condition, participants received a vibration for an incorrect decision. We characterized performance using signal detection theory to investigate whether a participant changed their decision criterion to avoid making an error. Results showed that under high-stress, participants made more false alarms, mistaking friends as foes, and this co-occurred with increased high frequency heart rate variability. Finally, we examined the relationship between decision making and physiology, and found that participants exhibited adaptive behavioral and physiological profiles under different stress levels. We interpret this adaptive profile as a marker of an expert's ingrained training that does not require top down control, suggesting a way that expert training in high-stress environments helps to buffer negative impacts of stress on performance. Published by Elsevier B.V.

How to Cope with Bias While Adapting for Inclusion in Physical Education and Sports: A Judgment and Decision-Making Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hutzler, Yeshayahu; Bar-Eli, Michael

2013-01-01

The purpose of this article is to describe a theoretical model and practice examples of judgment and decision making bias within the context of inclusion in physical education and sports. After presenting the context of adapting for inclusion, the theoretical roots of judgment and decision are described, and are linked to the practice of physical…

Understanding and applying principles of social cognition and decision making in adaptive environmental governance.

PubMed

DeCaro, Daniel A; Arnol, Craig Anthony Tony; Boama, Emmanuel Frimpong; Garmestani, Ahjond S

2017-03-01

Environmental governance systems are under greater pressure to adapt and to cope with increased social and ecological uncertainty from stressors like climate change. We review principles of social cognition and decision making that shape and constrain how environmental governance systems adapt. We focus primarily on the interplay between key decision makers in society and legal systems. We argue that adaptive governance must overcome three cooperative dilemmas to facilitate adaptation: (1) encouraging collaborative problem solving, (2) garnering social acceptance and commitment, and (3) cultivating a culture of trust and tolerance for change and uncertainty. However, to do so governance systems must cope with biases in people's decision making that cloud their judgment and create conflict. These systems must also satisfy people's fundamental needs for self-determination, fairness, and security, ensuring that changes to environmental governance are perceived as legitimate, trustworthy, and acceptable. We discuss the implications of these principles for common governance solutions (e.g., public participation, enforcement) and conclude with methodological recommendations. We outline how scholars can investigate the social cognitive principles involved in cases of adaptive governance.

Understanding and applying principles of social cognition and decision making in adaptive environmental governance

PubMed Central

DeCaro, Daniel A.; Arnol, Craig Anthony (Tony); Boama, Emmanuel Frimpong; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

2018-01-01

Environmental governance systems are under greater pressure to adapt and to cope with increased social and ecological uncertainty from stressors like climate change. We review principles of social cognition and decision making that shape and constrain how environmental governance systems adapt. We focus primarily on the interplay between key decision makers in society and legal systems. We argue that adaptive governance must overcome three cooperative dilemmas to facilitate adaptation: (1) encouraging collaborative problem solving, (2) garnering social acceptance and commitment, and (3) cultivating a culture of trust and tolerance for change and uncertainty. However, to do so governance systems must cope with biases in people’s decision making that cloud their judgment and create conflict. These systems must also satisfy people’s fundamental needs for self-determination, fairness, and security, ensuring that changes to environmental governance are perceived as legitimate, trustworthy, and acceptable. We discuss the implications of these principles for common governance solutions (e.g., public participation, enforcement) and conclude with methodological recommendations. We outline how scholars can investigate the social cognitive principles involved in cases of adaptive governance. PMID:29780425

Decision-making without a brain: how an amoeboid organism solves the two-armed bandit.

PubMed

Reid, Chris R; MacDonald, Hannelore; Mann, Richard P; Marshall, James A R; Latty, Tanya; Garnier, Simon

2016-06-01

Several recent studies hint at shared patterns in decision-making between taxonomically distant organisms, yet few studies demonstrate and dissect mechanisms of decision-making in simpler organisms. We examine decision-making in the unicellular slime mould Physarum polycephalum using a classical decision problem adapted from human and animal decision-making studies: the two-armed bandit problem. This problem has previously only been used to study organisms with brains, yet here we demonstrate that a brainless unicellular organism compares the relative qualities of multiple options, integrates over repeated samplings to perform well in random environments, and combines information on reward frequency and magnitude in order to make correct and adaptive decisions. We extend our inquiry by using Bayesian model selection to determine the most likely algorithm used by the cell when making decisions. We deduce that this algorithm centres around a tendency to exploit environments in proportion to their reward experienced through past sampling. The algorithm is intermediate in computational complexity between simple, reactionary heuristics and calculation-intensive optimal performance algorithms, yet it has very good relative performance. Our study provides insight into ancestral mechanisms of decision-making and suggests that fundamental principles of decision-making, information processing and even cognition are shared among diverse biological systems. © 2016 The Authors.

The adaptive decision-making, risky decision, and decision-making style of Internet gaming disorder.

PubMed

Ko, C-H; Wang, P-W; Liu, T-L; Chen, C-S; Yen, C-F; Yen, J-Y

2017-07-01

Persistent gaming, despite acknowledgment of its negative consequences, is a major criterion for individuals with Internet gaming disorder (IGD). This study evaluated the adaptive decision-making, risky decision, and decision-making style of individuals with IGD. We recruited 87 individuals with IGD and 87 without IGD (matched controls). All participants underwent an interview based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th Edition) diagnostic criteria for IGD and completed an adaptive decision-making task; the Preference for Intuition and Deliberation Scale, Chen Internet Addiction Scale, and Barratt Impulsivity Scale were also assessed on the basis of the information from the diagnostic interviews. The results demonstrated that the participants in both groups tend to make more risky choices in advantage trials where their expected value (EV) was more favorable than those of the riskless choice. The tendency to make a risky choice in advantage trials was stronger among IGD group than that among controls. Participants of both groups made more risky choices in the loss domain, a risky option to loss more versus sure loss option, than they did in the gain domain, a risky option to gain more versus sure gain. Furthermore, the participants with IGD made more risky choices in the gain domain than did the controls. Participants with IGD showed higher and lower preferences for intuitive and deliberative decision-making styles, respectively, than controls and their preferences for intuition and deliberation were positively and negatively associated with IGD severity, respectively. These results suggested that individuals with IGD have elevated EV sensitivity for decision-making. However, they demonstrated risky preferences in the gain domain and preferred an intuitive rather than deliberative decision-making style. This might explain why they continue Internet gaming despite negative consequences. Thus, therapists should focus more on decision-making styles and promote deliberative thinking processes to mitigate the long-term negative consequences of IGD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

A proposal for amending administrative law to facilitate adaptive management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craig, Robin K.; Ruhl, J. B.; Brown, Eleanor D.; Williams, Byron K.

2017-07-01

In this article we examine how federal agencies use adaptive management. In order for federal agencies to implement adaptive management more successfully, administrative law must adapt to adaptive management, and we propose changes in administrative law that will help to steer the current process out of a dead end. Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making that is widely used in natural resources management. It involves specific steps integrated in an iterative process for adjusting management actions as new information becomes available. Theoretical requirements for adaptive management notwithstanding, federal agency decision making is subject to the requirements of the federal Administrative Procedure Act, and state agencies are subject to the states’ parallel statutes. We argue that conventional administrative law has unnecessarily shackled effective use of adaptive management. We show that through a specialized ‘adaptive management track’ of administrative procedures, the core values of administrative law—especially public participation, judicial review, and finality— can be implemented in ways that allow for more effective adaptive management. We present and explain draft model legislation (the Model Adaptive Management Procedure Act) that would create such a track for the specific types of agency decision making that could benefit from adaptive management.

A proposal for amending administrative law to facilitate adaptive management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Craig, Robin K.; Ruhl, J.B.; Brown, Eleanor D.; Williams, Byron K.

2017-01-01

In this article we examine how federal agencies use adaptive management. In order for federal agencies to implement adaptive management more successfully, administrative law must adapt to adaptive management, and we propose changes in administrative law that will help to steer the current process out of a dead end. Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making that is widely used in natural resources management. It involves specific steps integrated in an iterative process for adjusting management actions as new information becomes available. Theoretical requirements for adaptive management notwithstanding, federal agency decision making is subject to the requirements of the federal Administrative Procedure Act, and state agencies are subject to the states' parallel statutes. We argue that conventional administrative law has unnecessarily shackled effective use of adaptive management. We show that through a specialized 'adaptive management track' of administrative procedures, the core values of administrative law—especially public participation, judicial review, and finality— can be implemented in ways that allow for more effective adaptive management. We present and explain draft model legislation (the Model Adaptive Management Procedure Act) that would create such a track for the specific types of agency decision making that could benefit from adaptive management.

Adaptive neural coding: from biological to behavioral decision-making

PubMed Central

Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W.; Webb, Ryan

2015-01-01

Empirical decision-making in diverse species deviates from the predictions of normative choice theory, but why such suboptimal behavior occurs is unknown. Here, we propose that deviations from optimality arise from biological decision mechanisms that have evolved to maximize choice performance within intrinsic biophysical constraints. Sensory processing utilizes specific computations such as divisive normalization to maximize information coding in constrained neural circuits, and recent evidence suggests that analogous computations operate in decision-related brain areas. These adaptive computations implement a relative value code that may explain the characteristic context-dependent nature of behavioral violations of classical normative theory. Examining decision-making at the computational level thus provides a crucial link between the architecture of biological decision circuits and the form of empirical choice behavior. PMID:26722666

Can conservation contracts co-exist with change? Payment for ecosystem services in the context of adaptive decision-making and sustainability.

PubMed

Hayes, Tanya; Murtinho, Felipe; Cárdenas Camacho, Luis Mario; Crespo, Patricio; McHugh, Sarah; Salmerón, David

2015-01-01

This paper considers the ability of payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs to operate in the context of dynamic and complex social-ecological systems. Drawing on the experiences of two different PES programs in Latin America, we examine how PES institutions fit with the tenets of adaptive decision-making for sustainable resource management. We identify how the program goals and the connection to the market influence the incentive structure, information gathering, learning and feedback processes, and the structure of decision-making rights, specifically the ability to make and modify resource-use rules. Although limited in their generalizability, findings from the two case studies suggest a tension between the contractual model of PES and adaptive decision-making in natural resource systems. PES programs are not inherently decentralized, flexible management tools, as PES contracts tend to restrict decision-making rights and offer minimal flexibility mechanisms to change resource-use practices over the duration of the contract period. Furthermore, PES design and flexibility is heavily dependent on the goals and mission of the buyer and the respective market. If PES is to facilitate sustainable resource management, greater attention is needed to assess how the institutional design of the PES contracts influence the motivation and capacity of participants and program officers alike to adaptively manage the respective resource systems.

Can Conservation Contracts Co-exist with Change? Payment for Ecosystem Services in the Context of Adaptive Decision-Making and Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, Tanya; Murtinho, Felipe; Cárdenas Camacho, Luis Mario; Crespo, Patricio; McHugh, Sarah; Salmerón, David

2015-01-01

This paper considers the ability of payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs to operate in the context of dynamic and complex social-ecological systems. Drawing on the experiences of two different PES programs in Latin America, we examine how PES institutions fit with the tenets of adaptive decision-making for sustainable resource management. We identify how the program goals and the connection to the market influence the incentive structure, information gathering, learning and feedback processes, and the structure of decision-making rights, specifically the ability to make and modify resource-use rules. Although limited in their generalizability, findings from the two case studies suggest a tension between the contractual model of PES and adaptive decision-making in natural resource systems. PES programs are not inherently decentralized, flexible management tools, as PES contracts tend to restrict decision-making rights and offer minimal flexibility mechanisms to change resource-use practices over the duration of the contract period. Furthermore, PES design and flexibility is heavily dependent on the goals and mission of the buyer and the respective market. If PES is to facilitate sustainable resource management, greater attention is needed to assess how the institutional design of the PES contracts influence the motivation and capacity of participants and program officers alike to adaptively manage the respective resource systems.

Adaptive leadership: a novel approach for family decision making.

PubMed

Adams, Judith; Bailey, Donald E; Anderson, Ruth A; Galanos, Anthony N

2013-03-01

Family members of intensive care unit (ICU) patients want to be involved in decision making, but they may not be best served by being placed in the position of having to solve problems for which they lack knowledge and skills. This case report presents an exemplar family meeting in the ICU led by a palliative care specialist, with discussion about the strategies used to improve the capacity of the family to make a decision consistent with the patient's goals. These strategies are presented through the lens of Adaptive Leadership.

Adapting American Policymaking to Overcome American Exceptionalism

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-13

policies of the United States were due a portion of blame for motivating the attacks of 9/11. Whether due to self - referentialism , cultural centrism, or...for. However, a deep inward look toward the foreign policy framing and decision making process is necessary to adapt that policy and address the tension...inward look toward the foreign policy framing and decision making process is necessary to adapt that policy and address the tension between U.S

Behavioral and Neural Adaptation in Approach Behavior.

PubMed

Wang, Shuo; Falvello, Virginia; Porter, Jenny; Said, Christopher P; Todorov, Alexander

2018-06-01

People often make approachability decisions based on perceived facial trustworthiness. However, it remains unclear how people learn trustworthiness from a population of faces and whether this learning influences their approachability decisions. Here we investigated the neural underpinning of approach behavior and tested two important hypotheses: whether the amygdala adapts to different trustworthiness ranges and whether the amygdala is modulated by task instructions and evaluative goals. We showed that participants adapted to the stimulus range of perceived trustworthiness when making approach decisions and that these decisions were further modulated by the social context. The right amygdala showed both linear response and quadratic response to trustworthiness level, as observed in prior studies. Notably, the amygdala's response to trustworthiness was not modulated by stimulus range or social context, a possible neural dynamic adaptation. Together, our data have revealed a robust behavioral adaptation to different trustworthiness ranges as well as a neural substrate underlying approach behavior based on perceived facial trustworthiness.

Farmer Decision-Making for Climate Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lubell, M.; Niles, M.; Salerno, J.

2015-12-01

This talk will provide an overview of several studies of how farmers make decisions about climate change adaptation and mitigation. A particular focus will be the "limiting factors hypothesis", which argues that farmers will respond to the climate variables that usually have the largest impact on their crop productivity. For example, the most limiting factor in California is usually water so how climate change affects water will be the largest drive of climate adaptation decisions. This basic idea is drawn from the broader theory of "psychological distance", which argue that human decisions are more attuned to ideas that are psychologically closer in space, time, or other factors. Empirical examples come from California, New Zealand, and Africa.

Making Career Decisions--A Sequential Elimination Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gati, Itamar

1986-01-01

Presents a model for career decision making based on the sequential elimination of occupational alternatives, an adaptation for career decisions of Tversky's (1972) elimination-by-aspects theory of choice. The expected utility approach is reviewed as a representative compensatory model for career decisions. Advantages, disadvantages, and…

Promoting Metacognitive Decision-Making in Teacher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffith, Robin; Bauml, Michelle; Quebec-Fuentes, Sarah

2016-01-01

Effective teachers are characterized by their abilities to make thoughtful, deliberate, and informed adaptations while teaching (Hoffman & Pearson, 2000). These in-the-moment teaching decisions are guided by a complex web of teacher knowledge. Raising teachers' awareness of the decisions they make on a moment-by-moment basis may aid in…

Lost in Search: (Mal-)Adaptation to Probabilistic Decision Environments in Children and Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Betsch, Tilmann; Lehmann, Anne; Lindow, Stefanie; Lang, Anna; Schoemann, Martin

2016-01-01

Adaptive decision making in probabilistic environments requires individuals to use probabilities as weights in predecisional information searches and/or when making subsequent choices. Within a child-friendly computerized environment (Mousekids), we tracked 205 children's (105 children 5-6 years of age and 100 children 9-10 years of age) and 103…

Ecological dynamics of continuous and categorical decision-making: the regatta start in sailing.

PubMed

Araújo, Duarte; Davids, Keith; Diniz, Ana; Rocha, Luis; Santos, João Coelho; Dias, Gonçalo; Fernandes, Orlando

2015-01-01

Ecological dynamics of decision-making in the sport of sailing exemplifies emergent, conditionally coupled, co-adaptive behaviours. In this study, observation of the coupling dynamics of paired boats during competitive sailing showed that decision-making can be modelled as a self-sustained, co-adapting system of informationally coupled oscillators (boats). Bytracing the spatial-temporal displacements of the boats, time series analyses (autocorrelations, periodograms and running correlations) revealed that trajectories of match racing boats are coupled more than 88% of the time during a pre-start race, via continuous, competing co-adaptions between boats. Results showed that both the continuously selected trajectories of the sailors (12 years of age) and their categorical starting point locations were examples of emergent decisions. In this dynamical conception of decision-making behaviours, strategic positioning (categorical) and continuous displacement of a boat over the course in match-race sailing emerged as a function of interacting task, personal and environmental constraints. Results suggest how key interacting constraints could be manipulated in practice to enhance sailors' perceptual attunement to them in competition.

Decision Making and Reward in Frontal Cortex

PubMed Central

Kennerley, Steven W.; Walton, Mark E.

2011-01-01

Patients with damage to the prefrontal cortex (PFC)—especially the ventral and medial parts of PFC—often show a marked inability to make choices that meet their needs and goals. These decision-making impairments often reflect both a deficit in learning concerning the consequences of a choice, as well as deficits in the ability to adapt future choices based on experienced value of the current choice. Thus, areas of PFC must support some value computations that are necessary for optimal choice. However, recent frameworks of decision making have highlighted that optimal and adaptive decision making does not simply rest on a single computation, but a number of different value computations may be necessary. Using this framework as a guide, we summarize evidence from both lesion studies and single-neuron physiology for the representation of different value computations across PFC areas. PMID:21534649

Adaptive Management: From More Talk to Real Action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Byron K.; Brown, Eleanor D.

2014-02-01

The challenges currently facing resource managers are large-scale and complex, and demand new approaches to balance development and conservation goals. One approach that shows considerable promise for addressing these challenges is adaptive management, which by now is broadly seen as a natural, intuitive, and potentially effective way to address decision-making in the face of uncertainties. Yet the concept of adaptive management continues to evolve, and its record of success remains limited. In this article, we present an operational framework for adaptive decision-making, and describe the challenges and opportunities in applying it to real-world problems. We discuss the key elements required for adaptive decision-making, and their integration into an iterative process that highlights and distinguishes technical and social learning. We illustrate the elements and processes of the framework with some successful on-the-ground examples of natural resource management. Finally, we address some of the difficulties in applying learning-based management, and finish with a discussion of future directions and strategic challenges.

Introduction of new technologies and decision making processes: a framework to adapt a Local Health Technology Decision Support Program for other local settings.

PubMed

Poulin, Paule; Austen, Lea; Scott, Catherine M; Poulin, Michelle; Gall, Nadine; Seidel, Judy; Lafrenière, René

2013-01-01

Introducing new health technologies, including medical devices, into a local setting in a safe, effective, and transparent manner is a complex process, involving many disciplines and players within an organization. Decision making should be systematic, consistent, and transparent. It should involve translating and integrating scientific evidence, such as health technology assessment (HTA) reports, with context-sensitive evidence to develop recommendations on whether and under what conditions a new technology will be introduced. However, the development of a program to support such decision making can require considerable time and resources. An alternative is to adapt a preexisting program to the new setting. We describe a framework for adapting the Local HTA Decision Support Program, originally developed by the Department of Surgery and Surgical Services (Calgary, AB, Canada), for use by other departments. The framework consists of six steps: 1) development of a program review and adaptation manual, 2) education and readiness assessment of interested departments, 3) evaluation of the program by individual departments, 4) joint evaluation via retreats, 5) synthesis of feedback and program revision, and 6) evaluation of the adaptation process. Nine departments revised the Local HTA Decision Support Program and expressed strong satisfaction with the adaptation process. Key elements for success were identified. Adaptation of a preexisting program may reduce duplication of effort, save resources, raise the health care providers' awareness of HTA, and foster constructive stakeholder engagement, which enhances the legitimacy of evidence-informed recommendations for introducing new health technologies. We encourage others to use this framework for program adaptation and to report their experiences.

Local Orientation and the Evolution of Foraging: Changes in Decision Making Can Eliminate Evolutionary Trade-offs

PubMed Central

van der Post, Daniel J.; Semmann, Dirk

2011-01-01

Information processing is a major aspect of the evolution of animal behavior. In foraging, responsiveness to local feeding opportunities can generate patterns of behavior which reflect or “recognize patterns” in the environment beyond the perception of individuals. Theory on the evolution of behavior generally neglects such opportunity-based adaptation. Using a spatial individual-based model we study the role of opportunity-based adaptation in the evolution of foraging, and how it depends on local decision making. We compare two model variants which differ in the individual decision making that can evolve (restricted and extended model), and study the evolution of simple foraging behavior in environments where food is distributed either uniformly or in patches. We find that opportunity-based adaptation and the pattern recognition it generates, plays an important role in foraging success, particularly in patchy environments where one of the main challenges is “staying in patches”. In the restricted model this is achieved by genetic adaptation of move and search behavior, in light of a trade-off on within- and between-patch behavior. In the extended model this trade-off does not arise because decision making capabilities allow for differentiated behavioral patterns. As a consequence, it becomes possible for properties of movement to be specialized for detection of patches with more food, a larger scale information processing not present in the restricted model. Our results show that changes in decision making abilities can alter what kinds of pattern recognition are possible, eliminate an evolutionary trade-off and change the adaptive landscape. PMID:21998571

Local orientation and the evolution of foraging: changes in decision making can eliminate evolutionary trade-offs.

PubMed

van der Post, Daniel J; Semmann, Dirk

2011-10-01

Information processing is a major aspect of the evolution of animal behavior. In foraging, responsiveness to local feeding opportunities can generate patterns of behavior which reflect or "recognize patterns" in the environment beyond the perception of individuals. Theory on the evolution of behavior generally neglects such opportunity-based adaptation. Using a spatial individual-based model we study the role of opportunity-based adaptation in the evolution of foraging, and how it depends on local decision making. We compare two model variants which differ in the individual decision making that can evolve (restricted and extended model), and study the evolution of simple foraging behavior in environments where food is distributed either uniformly or in patches. We find that opportunity-based adaptation and the pattern recognition it generates, plays an important role in foraging success, particularly in patchy environments where one of the main challenges is "staying in patches". In the restricted model this is achieved by genetic adaptation of move and search behavior, in light of a trade-off on within- and between-patch behavior. In the extended model this trade-off does not arise because decision making capabilities allow for differentiated behavioral patterns. As a consequence, it becomes possible for properties of movement to be specialized for detection of patches with more food, a larger scale information processing not present in the restricted model. Our results show that changes in decision making abilities can alter what kinds of pattern recognition are possible, eliminate an evolutionary trade-off and change the adaptive landscape.

Adaptive Allocation of Decision Making Responsibility Between Human and Computer in Multi-Task Situations. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chu, Y. Y.

1978-01-01

A unified formulation of computer-aided, multi-task, decision making is presented. Strategy for the allocation of decision making responsibility between human and computer is developed. The plans of a flight management systems are studied. A model based on the queueing theory was implemented.

'Gun! Gun! Gun!': An exploration of law enforcement officers' decision-making and coping under stress during actual events.

PubMed

Harris, Kevin R; Eccles, David W; Freeman, Carlos; Ward, Paul

2017-08-01

Research on decision-making under stress has mainly involved laboratory-based studies with few contextual descriptions of decision-making under stress in the natural ecology. We examined how police officers prepared for, coped with and made decisions under threat-of-death stress during real events. A delayed retrospective report method was used to elicit skilled police officers' thoughts and feelings during attempts to resolve such events. Reports were analysed to identify experiences of stress and coping, and thought processes underpinning decision-making during the event. Officers experienced a wide range of events, coped with stress predominantly via problem-focused strategies, and adapted their decision-making under stress based on the available context. Future officer training should involve a greater variety of training scenarios than is involved in current training, and expose trainees to the possible variants of each situation to foster better situational representation and, thus, a more reliable and adaptive mental model for use in decision-making. Practitioner Summary: This study concerns decision-making and coping strategies used by skilled police officers during real threat-of-death situations. Officers' decision-making strategies differed according to the complexity of the situation and they coped with the stress of these situations via attempts to resolve the situations (e.g. by planning responses) and, to a lesser extent, via attempts to deal with their emotions.

Measuring Shared Decision Making in Psychiatric Care

PubMed Central

Salyers, Michelle P.; Matthias, Marianne S.; Fukui, Sadaaki; Holter, Mark C.; Collins, Linda; Rose, Nichole; Thompson, John; Coffman, Melinda; Torrey, William C.

2014-01-01

Objective Shared decision making is widely recognized to facilitate effective health care; tools are needed to measure the level of shared decision making in psychiatric practice. Methods A coding scheme assessing shared decision making in medical settings (1) was adapted, including creation of a manual. Trained raters analyzed 170 audio recordings of psychiatric medication check-up visits. Results Inter-rater reliability among three raters for a subset of 20 recordings ranged from 67% to 100% agreement for the presence of each of nine elements of shared decision making and 100% for the overall agreement between provider and consumer. Just over half of the decisions met minimum criteria for shared decision making. Shared decision making was not related to length of visit after controlling for complexity of decision. Conclusions The shared decision making rating scale appears to reliably assess shared decision making in psychiatric practice and could be helpful for future research, training, and implementation efforts. PMID:22854725

DECISION-MAKING ALIGNED WITH RAPID-CYCLE EVALUATION IN HEALTH CARE.

PubMed

Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Shrank, William H; Ruhl, Michael; Maclure, Malcolm

2015-01-01

Availability of real-time electronic healthcare data provides new opportunities for rapid-cycle evaluation (RCE) of health technologies, including healthcare delivery and payment programs. We aim to align decision-making processes with stages of RCE to optimize the usefulness and impact of rapid results. Rational decisions about program adoption depend on program effect size in relation to externalities, including implementation cost, sustainability, and likelihood of broad adoption. Drawing on case studies and experience from drug safety monitoring, we examine how decision makers have used scientific evidence on complex interventions in the past. We clarify how RCE alters the nature of policy decisions; develop the RAPID framework for synchronizing decision-maker activities with stages of RCE; and provide guidelines on evidence thresholds for incremental decision-making. In contrast to traditional evaluations, RCE provides early evidence on effectiveness and facilitates a stepped approach to decision making in expectation of future regularly updated evidence. RCE allows for identification of trends in adjusted effect size. It supports adapting a program in midstream in response to interim findings, or adapting the evaluation strategy to identify true improvements earlier. The 5-step RAPID approach that utilizes the cumulating evidence of program effectiveness over time could increase policy-makers' confidence in expediting decisions. RCE enables a step-wise approach to HTA decision-making, based on gradually emerging evidence, reducing delays in decision-making processes after traditional one-time evaluations.

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Conclusions Our technical advance is the development and use of automated event-based knowledge elicitation to identify suboptimal OR management decisions that decrease the efficiency of use of OR time. The adapted scenarios can be used in future decision-making. PMID:21214905

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data.

PubMed

Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H

2011-01-07

No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the development and use of automated event-based knowledge elicitation to identify suboptimal OR management decisions that decrease the efficiency of use of OR time. The adapted scenarios can be used in future decision-making.

Assessing Affective and Deliberative Decision-Making: Adaptation of the Columbia Card Task to Brazilian Portuguese.

PubMed

Kluwe-Schiavon, Bruno; Sanvicente-Vieira, Breno; Viola, Thiago W; Veiga, Eduardo; Bortolotto, Vanessa; Grassi-Oliveira, Rodrigo

2015-11-20

The ability to predict reward and punishment is essential for decision-making and the ability to learn about an ever-changing environment. Therefore, efforts have been made in understanding the mechanisms underlying decision-making, especially regarding how affective and deliberative processes interact with risk behavior. To adapt to Brazilian Portuguese the Columbia Card Task (CCT) and investigate affective and deliberative processes involved in decision-making. This study had two main phases: (1) a transcultural adaptation and (2) a pilot study. The feedback manipulation among the three conditions of CCT had an effect on the risk-taking level (p < .005, ES = .201). In addition, the feedback manipulation among the three conditions of CCT had an effect on the information use at both the individual and group levels. Further, a linear regression suggested that the use of information, indicated by the advantageous level of the scenarios, predict the number of cards chosen R 2 = .029, p < .001, accounting for 17% of the variance. The Brazilian CCT performs well and is a versatile method for the assessment of affective and deliberative decision-making under risk according to different feedback manipulation scenarios. This study goes further, comparing electrodermal activity during hot and warm conditions and addressing an advantageous level index analysis to asses deliberative processing.

Do Children Who Experience Regret Make Better Decisions? A Developmental Study of the Behavioral Consequences of Regret

PubMed Central

O’Connor, Eimear; McCormack, Teresa; Feeney, Aidan

2014-01-01

Although regret is assumed to facilitate good decision making, there is little research directly addressing this assumption. Four experiments (N = 326) examined the relation between children's ability to experience regret and the quality of their subsequent decision making. In Experiment 1 regret and adaptive decision making showed the same developmental profile, with both first appearing at about 7 years. In Experiments 2a and 2b, children aged 6–7 who experienced regret decided adaptively more often than children who did not experience regret, and this held even when controlling for age and verbal ability. Experiment 3 ruled out a memory-based interpretation of these findings. These findings suggest that the experience of regret facilitates children's ability to learn rapidly from bad outcomes. PMID:24773388

Sequential decision making in computational sustainability via adaptive submodularity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krause, Andreas; Golovin, Daniel; Converse, Sarah J.

2015-01-01

Many problems in computational sustainability require making a sequence of decisions in complex, uncertain environments. Such problems are generally notoriously difficult. In this article, we review the recently discovered notion of adaptive submodularity, an intuitive diminishing returns condition that generalizes the classical notion of submodular set functions to sequential decision problems. Problems exhibiting the adaptive submodularity property can be efficiently and provably near-optimally solved using simple myopic policies. We illustrate this concept in several case studies of interest in computational sustainability: First, we demonstrate how it can be used to efficiently plan for resolving uncertainty in adaptive management scenarios. Secondly, we show how it applies to dynamic conservation planning for protecting endangered species, a case study carried out in collaboration with the US Geological Survey and the US Fish and Wildlife Service.

DRUG EVALUATION AND DECISION MAKING IN CATALONIA: DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK BASED ON MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS (MCDA) FOR ORPHAN DRUGS.

PubMed

Gilabert-Perramon, Antoni; Torrent-Farnell, Josep; Catalan, Arancha; Prat, Alba; Fontanet, Manel; Puig-Peiró, Ruth; Merino-Montero, Sandra; Khoury, Hanane; Goetghebeur, Mireille M; Badia, Xavier

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to adapt and assess the value of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework (EVIDEM) for the evaluation of Orphan drugs in Catalonia (Catalan Health Service). The standard evaluation and decision-making procedures of CatSalut were compared with the EVIDEM methodology and contents. The EVIDEM framework was adapted to the Catalan context, focusing on the evaluation of Orphan drugs (PASFTAC program), during a Workshop with sixteen PASFTAC members. The criteria weighting was done using two different techniques (nonhierarchical and hierarchical). Reliability was assessed by re-test. The EVIDEM framework and methodology was found useful and feasible for Orphan drugs evaluation and decision making in Catalonia. All the criteria considered for the development of the CatSalut Technical Reports and decision making were considered in the framework. Nevertheless, the framework could improve the reporting of some of these criteria (i.e., "unmet needs" or "nonmedical costs"). Some Contextual criteria were removed (i.e., "Mandate and scope of healthcare system", "Environmental impact") or adapted ("population priorities and access") for CatSalut purposes. Independently of the weighting technique considered, the most important evaluation criteria identified for orphan drugs were: "disease severity", "unmet needs" and "comparative effectiveness", while the "size of the population" had the lowest relevance for decision making. Test-retest analysis showed weight consistency among techniques, supporting reliability overtime. MCDA (EVIDEM framework) could be a useful tool to complement the current evaluation methods of CatSalut, contributing to standardization and pragmatism, providing a method to tackle ethical dilemmas and facilitating discussions related to decision making.

Ignorance- versus Evidence-Based Decision Making: A Decision Time Analysis of the Recognition Heuristic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hilbig, Benjamin E.; Pohl, Rudiger F.

2009-01-01

According to part of the adaptive toolbox notion of decision making known as the recognition heuristic (RH), the decision process in comparative judgments--and its duration--is determined by whether recognition discriminates between objects. By contrast, some recently proposed alternative models predict that choices largely depend on the amount of…

Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: household strategies and determinants.

PubMed

Bryan, Elizabeth; Ringler, Claudia; Okoba, Barrack; Roncoli, Carla; Silvestri, Silvia; Herrero, Mario

2013-01-15

Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change, given dependence on agricultural production and limited adaptive capacity. Based on farm household and Participatory Rural Appraisal data collected from districts in various agroecological zones in Kenya, this paper examines farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and factors influencing farmers' decisions to adapt. The results show that households face considerable challenges in adapting to climate change. While many households have made small adjustments to their farming practices in response to climate change (in particular, changing planting decisions), few households are able to make more costly investments, for example in agroforestry or irrigation, although there is a desire to invest in such measures. This emphasizes the need for greater investments in rural and agricultural development to support the ability of households to make strategic, long-term decisions that affect their future well-being. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Testing Phase for the Small Unit Decision Making (SUDM) Assessment Battery

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-28

on findings from the testing phase, several changes are recommended for the battery. First, it is recommended that self -report measures be separated...of a decision-making assessment battery. The five cognitive competencies are sensemaking, problem solving, adaptability, metacognition , and...flexibility, ambiguity tolerance, resilience, self -regulation, and self - awareness. We added the overarching construct of decision making and developed

Climate change adaptation under uncertainty in the developing world: A case study of sea level rise in Kiribati

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, S. D.; Webber, S.

2011-12-01

Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact in parts of the developing world. At the 2010 meeting of U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change in Cancun, industrialized countries agreed in principle to provide US$100 billion per year by 2020 to assist the developing world respond to climate change. This "Green Climate Fund" is a critical step towards addressing the challenge of climate change. However, the policy and discourse on supporting adaptation in the developing world remains highly idealized. For example, the efficacy of "no regrets" adaptation efforts or "mainstreaming" adaptation into decision-making are rarely evaluated in the real world. In this presentation, I will discuss the gap between adaptation theory and practice using a multi-year case study of the cultural, social and scientific obstacles to adapting to sea level rise in the Pacific atoll nation of Kiribati. Our field research reveals how scientific and institutional uncertainty can limit international efforts to fund adaptation and lead to spiraling costs. Scientific uncertainty about hyper-local impacts of sea level rise, though irreducible, can at times limit decision-making about adaptation measures, contrary to the notion that "good" decision-making practices can incorporate scientific uncertainty. Efforts to improve institutional capacity must be done carefully, or they risk inadvertently slowing the implementation of adaptation measures and increasing the likelihood of "mal"-adaptation.

Adaptive Comanagement of a Marine Protected Area Network in Fiji

PubMed Central

WEEKS, REBECCA; JUPITER, STACY D

2014-01-01

Adaptive management of natural resources is an iterative process of decision making whereby management strategies are progressively changed or adjusted in response to new information. Despite an increasing focus on the need for adaptive conservation strategies, there remain few applied examples. We describe the 9-year process of adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Kubulau District, Fiji. In 2011, a review of protected area boundaries and management rules was motivated by the need to enhance management effectiveness and the desire to improve resilience to climate change. Through a series of consultations, with the Wildlife Conservation Society providing scientific input to community decision making, the network of marine protected areas was reconfigured so as to maximize resilience and compliance. Factors identified as contributing to this outcome include well-defined resource-access rights; community respect for a flexible system of customary governance; long-term commitment and presence of comanagement partners; supportive policy environment for comanagement; synthesis of traditional management approaches with systematic monitoring; and district-wide coordination, which provided a broader spatial context for adaptive-management decision making. PMID:24112643

Moderate social sensitivity in a risky context supports adaptive decision making in adolescence: evidence from brain and behavior.

PubMed

van Hoorn, Jorien; McCormick, Ethan M; Telzer, Eva H

2018-05-01

Adolescence is a time of increased social-affective sensitivity, which is often related to heightened health-risk behaviors. However, moderate levels of social sensitivity, relative to either low (social vacuum) or high levels (exceptionally attuned), may confer benefits as it facilitates effective navigation of the social world. The present fMRI study tested a curvilinear relationship between social sensitivity and adaptive decision-making. Participants (ages 12-16; N = 35) played the Social Analogue Risk Task, which measures participants' willingness to knock on doors in order to earn points. With each knock, the facial expression of the house's resident shifted from happy to somewhat angrier. If the resident became too angry, the door slammed and participants lost points. Social sensitivity was defined as the extent to which adolescents adjusted their risky choices based on shifting facial expressions. Results confirmed a curvilinear relationship between social sensitivity and self-reported adaptive decision-making at the behavioral and neural level. Moderate adolescent social sensitivity was modulated via heightened tracking of social cues in the temporoparietal junction, insula and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and related to adaptive decision-making. These findings suggest that social-affective sensitivity may positively impact outcomes in adolescence and have implications for interventions to help adolescents reach mature social goals into adulthood.

Planning Major Curricular Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kirkland, Travis P.

Decision-making and change models can take many forms. One researcher (Nordvall, 1982) has suggested five conceptual models for introducing change: a political model; a rational decision-making model; a social interaction decision model; the problem-solving method; and an adaptive/linkage model which is an amalgam of each of the other models.…

A decision-making model based on a spiking neural circuit and synaptic plasticity.

PubMed

Wei, Hui; Bu, Yijie; Dai, Dawei

2017-10-01

To adapt to the environment and survive, most animals can control their behaviors by making decisions. The process of decision-making and responding according to cues in the environment is stable, sustainable, and learnable. Understanding how behaviors are regulated by neural circuits and the encoding and decoding mechanisms from stimuli to responses are important goals in neuroscience. From results observed in Drosophila experiments, the underlying decision-making process is discussed, and a neural circuit that implements a two-choice decision-making model is proposed to explain and reproduce the observations. Compared with previous two-choice decision making models, our model uses synaptic plasticity to explain changes in decision output given the same environment. Moreover, biological meanings of parameters of our decision-making model are discussed. In this paper, we explain at the micro-level (i.e., neurons and synapses) how observable decision-making behavior at the macro-level is acquired and achieved.

Including "Everyone" in Outdoor Play.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flynn, Lynda L.; Kieff, Judith

2002-01-01

Presents guidelines for outdoor play that are important when young children have special needs. Details a decision-making process for planning adaptations and practical strategies for making adaptations and interventions to enhance outdoor play for children with special needs. Lists adaptations for a child who is blind, is deaf, has physical…

A control-theory model for human decision-making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levison, W. H.; Tanner, R. B.

1971-01-01

A model for human decision making is an adaptation of an optimal control model for pilot/vehicle systems. The models for decision and control both contain concepts of time delay, observation noise, optimal prediction, and optimal estimation. The decision making model was intended for situations in which the human bases his decision on his estimate of the state of a linear plant. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (a) single decision tasks, (b) two-decision tasks, and (c) simultaneous manual control and decision making. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance can be predicted to within an accuracy of 10 percent. Agreement is less good for the simultaneous decision and control situation.

Psychiatric service staff perceptions of implementing a shared decision-making tool: a process evaluation study

PubMed Central

Schön, Ulla-Karin; Grim, Katarina; Wallin, Lars; Rosenberg, David; Svedberg, Petra

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Purpose: Shared decision making, SDM, in psychiatric services, supports users to experience a greater sense of involvement in treatment, self-efficacy, autonomy and reduced coercion. Decision tools adapted to the needs of users have the potential to support SDM and restructure how users and staff work together to arrive at shared decisions. The aim of this study was to describe and analyse the implementation process of an SDM intervention for users of psychiatric services in Sweden. Method: The implementation was studied through a process evaluation utilizing both quantitative and qualitative methods. In designing the process evaluation for the intervention, three evaluation components were emphasized: contextual factors, implementation issues and mechanisms of impact. Results: The study addresses critical implementation issues related to decision-making authority, the perceived decision-making ability of users and the readiness of the service to increase influence and participation. It also emphasizes the importance of facilitation, as well as suggesting contextual adaptations that may be relevant for the local organizations. Conclusion: The results indicate that staff perceived the decision support tool as user-friendly and useful in supporting participation in decision-making, and suggest that such concrete supports to participation can be a factor in implementation if adequate attention is paid to organizational contexts and structures. PMID:29405889

Psychiatric service staff perceptions of implementing a shared decision-making tool: a process evaluation study.

PubMed

Schön, Ulla-Karin; Grim, Katarina; Wallin, Lars; Rosenberg, David; Svedberg, Petra

2018-12-01

Shared decision making, SDM, in psychiatric services, supports users to experience a greater sense of involvement in treatment, self-efficacy, autonomy and reduced coercion. Decision tools adapted to the needs of users have the potential to support SDM and restructure how users and staff work together to arrive at shared decisions. The aim of this study was to describe and analyse the implementation process of an SDM intervention for users of psychiatric services in Sweden. The implementation was studied through a process evaluation utilizing both quantitative and qualitative methods. In designing the process evaluation for the intervention, three evaluation components were emphasized: contextual factors, implementation issues and mechanisms of impact. The study addresses critical implementation issues related to decision-making authority, the perceived decision-making ability of users and the readiness of the service to increase influence and participation. It also emphasizes the importance of facilitation, as well as suggesting contextual adaptations that may be relevant for the local organizations. The results indicate that staff perceived the decision support tool as user-friendly and useful in supporting participation in decision-making, and suggest that such concrete supports to participation can be a factor in implementation if adequate attention is paid to organizational contexts and structures.

Do individual differences in Iowa Gambling Task performance predict adaptive decision making for risky gains and losses?

PubMed

Weller, Joshua A; Levin, Irwin P; Bechara, Antoine

2010-02-01

We relate performance on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), a widely used, but complex, neuropsychological task of executive function in which mixed outcomes (gains and losses) are experienced together, to performance on a relatively simpler descriptive task, the Cups task, which isolates adaptive decision making for achieving gains and avoiding losses. We found that poor IGT performance was associated with suboptimal decision making on Cups, especially for risky losses, suggesting that losses are weighted more than gains in the IGT. These findings were significant beyond several notable gender differences in which men outperformed women. Implications for the neuropsychological study of risk are discussed.

A Neural Information Field Approach to Computational Cognition

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-18

We have extended our perceptual decision making model to account for the effects of context in this flexible DISTRIBUTION A. Approved for public...developed a new perceptual decision making model; demonstrated adaptive motor control in a large-scale cognitive simulation with spiking neurons (Spaun...TERMS EOARD, Computational Cognition, Mixed-initiative decision making 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT SAR 18. NUMBER OF

Adaptive decision making in a dynamic environment: a test of a sequential sampling model of relative judgment.

PubMed

Vuckovic, Anita; Kwantes, Peter J; Neal, Andrew

2013-09-01

Research has identified a wide range of factors that influence performance in relative judgment tasks. However, the findings from this research have been inconsistent. Studies have varied with respect to the identification of causal variables and the perceptual and decision-making mechanisms underlying performance. Drawing on the ecological rationality approach, we present a theory of the judgment and decision-making processes involved in a relative judgment task that explains how people judge a stimulus and adapt their decision process to accommodate their own uncertainty associated with those judgments. Undergraduate participants performed a simulated air traffic control conflict detection task. Across two experiments, we systematically manipulated variables known to affect performance. In the first experiment, we manipulated the relative distances of aircraft to a common destination while holding aircraft speeds constant. In a follow-up experiment, we introduced a direct manipulation of relative speed. We then fit a sequential sampling model to the data, and used the best fitting parameters to infer the decision-making processes responsible for performance. Findings were consistent with the theory that people adapt to their own uncertainty by adjusting their criterion and the amount of time they take to collect evidence in order to make a more accurate decision. From a practical perspective, the paper demonstrates that one can use a sequential sampling model to understand performance in a dynamic environment, allowing one to make sense of and interpret complex patterns of empirical findings that would otherwise be difficult to interpret using standard statistical analyses. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Single-photon decision maker

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naruse, Makoto; Berthel, Martin; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Aono, Masashi; Hori, Hirokazu; Kim, Song-Ju

2015-08-01

Decision making is critical in our daily lives and for society in general and is finding evermore practical applications in information and communication technologies. Herein, we demonstrate experimentally that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. Using a nitrogen-vacancy in a nanodiamond as a single-photon source, we demonstrate the decision-making capability by solving the multi-armed bandit problem. This capability is directly and immediately associated with single-photon detection in the proposed architecture, leading to adequate and adaptive autonomous decision making. This study makes it possible to create systems that benefit from the quantum nature of light to perform practical and vital intelligent functions.

Study of application of adaptive systems to the exploration of the solar system. Volume 2: Survey of solar system missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

Ways in which human intelligence might be simulated onboard an unmanned mission to achieve some of the decision making capability or adaptability of the manned mission are examined. The relative cost and simplicity advantages of the unmanned spacecraft missions are emphasized. Reliable techniques for making onboard decisions and for modifying mission science operations in response to the findings are analyzed.

Dynamics of Individual and Collective Agricultural Adaptation to Water Scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burchfield, E. K.; Gilligan, J. M.

2016-12-01

Drought and water scarcity are challenging agricultural systems around the world. We draw on extensive field-work conducted with paddy farmers in rural Sri Lanka to study adaptations to water scarcity, including switching to less water-intensive crops, farming collectively on shared land, and turning to groundwater by digging wells. We explore how variability in climate affects agricultural decision-making at the community and individual levels using three decision-making heuristics, each characterized by an objective function: risk-averse expected utility, regret-adjusted expected utility, and prospect theory loss-aversion. We also assess how the introduction of individualized access to irrigation water with wells affects long-standing community-based drought mitigation practices. Results suggest that the growth of well-irrigation may produce sudden disruptions to community-based adaptations, but that this depends on the mental models farmers use to think about risk and make decisions under uncertainty.

Do Proxies for the Neurotransmitter Cortisol Predict Adaptation to Life with Chronic Pain?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deamond, Wade

Among the numerous difficulties encountered by chronic pain patients, impulsive and dysfunctional decision-making complicate their already difficult life situations yet remains relatively understudied. This study examined a recently published neurobiological decision making model that identifies eight specific neurotransmitters and hormones (Dopamine, Testosterone, Endogenous Opioids Glutamate, Serotonin, Norepinephrine, Cortisol, and GABA) linked to unsound decision making related to cognitive, motivational and emotional dysregulation (Nussbaum et al., 2011) (see Appendix 2). The Perceived Stress Scale (PSS), a proxy for the cortisol element in the pharmacological decision making model was analyzed for the neurotransmitter's relationship to functionality and quality of life in a group of 37 chronic pain patients. Participants were comprised of males and females ranging from 23 to 52 years of age and were classified with respect to levels of adjustment to living with chronic pain based on the Quality of Life Scale (QLS), the Dartmouth WONCA COOP Charts and the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF). The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and Frontal System Behavioral Scale (FSBS) measured decision making related to immediate gratification and daily living respectively. Results suggest that emotional dysregulation, as measured by the PSS is a significant predictor for adaptation to life with chronic pain and the PSS is superior to predicting adaptation to life with chronic pain than reported levels of pain as measured by the McGill Pain Questionnaire.

Translational studies of goal-directed action as a framework for classifying deficits across psychiatric disorders

PubMed Central

Griffiths, Kristi R.; Morris, Richard W.; Balleine, Bernard W.

2014-01-01

The ability to learn contingencies between actions and outcomes in a dynamic environment is critical for flexible, adaptive behavior. Goal-directed actions adapt to changes in action-outcome contingencies as well as to changes in the reward-value of the outcome. When networks involved in reward processing and contingency learning are maladaptive, this fundamental ability can be lost, with detrimental consequences for decision-making. Impaired decision-making is a core feature in a number of psychiatric disorders, ranging from depression to schizophrenia. The argument can be developed, therefore, that seemingly disparate symptoms across psychiatric disorders can be explained by dysfunction within common decision-making circuitry. From this perspective, gaining a better understanding of the neural processes involved in goal-directed action, will allow a comparison of deficits observed across traditional diagnostic boundaries within a unified theoretical framework. This review describes the key processes and neural circuits involved in goal-directed decision-making using evidence from animal studies and human neuroimaging. Select studies are discussed to outline what we currently know about causal judgments regarding actions and their consequences, action-related reward evaluation, and, most importantly, how these processes are integrated in goal-directed learning and performance. Finally, we look at how adaptive decision-making is impaired across a range of psychiatric disorders and how deepening our understanding of this circuitry may offer insights into phenotypes and more targeted interventions. PMID:24904322

A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions.

PubMed

Krajbich, Ian; Hare, Todd; Bartling, Björn; Morishima, Yosuke; Fehr, Ernst

2015-10-01

People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.

A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions

PubMed Central

Krajbich, Ian; Hare, Todd; Bartling, Björn; Morishima, Yosuke; Fehr, Ernst

2015-01-01

People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others’ benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making. PMID:26460812

Effectiveness of a Video-Feedback and Questioning Programme to Develop Cognitive Expertise in Sport

PubMed Central

García-González, Luis; Moreno, M. Perla; Moreno, Alberto; Gil, Alexander; del Villar, Fernando

2013-01-01

The importance within sport expertise of cognitive factors has been emphasised in many research studies. Adaptations that take place in athletes’ long-term memories are going to condition their decision-making and performance, and training programmes must be developed that improve these adaptations. In our study, we provide a tactical-cognitive training programme based on video-feedback and questioning in order to improve tactical knowledge in tennis players and verify its effect when transferred to athletes’ decision-making. 11 intermediate tennis players participated in this study (12.9±0.7 years old), distributed into two groups (experimental, n = 5; control, n = 6). Tactical knowledge was measured by problem representation and strategy planning with a verbal protocol. Decision-making was measured by a systematic observation instrument. Results confirm the effectiveness of a combination of video-feedback and questioning on cognitive expertise, developing adaptations in long-term memory that produce an improvement in the quality of tactical knowledge (content, sophistication and structure). This, in turn, is transferred to the athletes’ decision-making capacity, leading to a higher percentage of successful decisions made during game play. Finally, we emphasise the need to develop effective programmes to develop cognitive expertise and improve athletes' performance, and include it in athletes’ formative stages. PMID:24340012

Clinical and genetic correlates of decision making in anorexia nervosa.

PubMed

Tenconi, Elena; Degortes, Daniela; Clementi, Maurizio; Collantoni, Enrico; Pinato, Claudia; Forzan, Monica; Cassina, Matteo; Santonastaso, Paolo; Favaro, Angela

2016-01-01

Decision-making (DM) abilities have been found to be impaired in anorexia nervosa (AN), but few data are available about the characteristics and correlates of this cognitive function. The aim of the present study was to provide data on DM functioning in AN using both veridical and adaptive paradigms. While in veridical DM tasks, the individual's ability to predict a true/false response is measured, adaptive DM is the ability to consider both internal and external demands in order to make a good choice, in the absence of a single true "correct" answer. The participants were 189 women, of whom 91 were eating-disordered patients with a lifetime diagnosis of anorexia nervosa, and 98 were healthy women. All the participants underwent clinical, neuropsychological, and genetic assessment. The cognitive evaluation included a set of neuropsychological tasks and two decision-making tests: The Iowa Gambling Task and the Cognitive Bias Task. Anorexia nervosa patients showed significantly poorer performances on both decision-making tasks than healthy women. The Cognitive Bias Task revealed that anorexia nervosa patients employed significantly more context-independent decision-making strategies, which were independent from diagnostic subtype, handedness, education, and psychopathology. In the whole sample (patients and controls), Cognitive Bias Task performance was independently predicted by lifetime anorexia nervosa diagnosis, body mass index at assessment, and 5-HTTLPR genotype. Patients displayed poor decision-making functioning in both veridical and adaptive situations. The difficulties detected in anorexia nervosa individuals may affect not only the ability to consider the future outcomes of their actions (leading to "myopia for the future"), but also the capacity to update and review one's own mindset according to new environmental stimuli.

Game theory and neural basis of social decision making

PubMed Central

Lee, Daeyeol

2008-01-01

Decision making in a social group displays two unique features. First, humans and other animals routinely alter their behaviors in response to changes in their physical and social environment. As a result, the outcomes of decisions that depend on the behaviors of multiple decision makers are difficult to predict, and this requires highly adaptive decision-making strategies. Second, decision makers may have other-regarding preferences and therefore choose their actions to improve or reduce the well-beings of others. Recently, many neurobiological studies have exploited game theory to probe the neural basis of decision making, and found that these unique features of social decision making might be reflected in the functions of brain areas involved in reward evaluation and reinforcement learning. Molecular genetic studies have also begun to identify genetic mechanisms for personal traits related to reinforcement learning and complex social decision making, further illuminating the biological basis of social behavior. PMID:18368047

Chronic Exposure to Methamphetamine Disrupts Reinforcement-Based Decision Making in Rats.

PubMed

Groman, Stephanie M; Rich, Katherine M; Smith, Nathaniel J; Lee, Daeyeol; Taylor, Jane R

2018-03-01

The persistent use of psychostimulant drugs, despite the detrimental outcomes associated with continued drug use, may be because of disruptions in reinforcement-learning processes that enable behavior to remain flexible and goal directed in dynamic environments. To identify the reinforcement-learning processes that are affected by chronic exposure to the psychostimulant methamphetamine (MA), the current study sought to use computational and biochemical analyses to characterize decision-making processes, assessed by probabilistic reversal learning, in rats before and after they were exposed to an escalating dose regimen of MA (or saline control). The ability of rats to use flexible and adaptive decision-making strategies following changes in stimulus-reward contingencies was significantly impaired following exposure to MA. Computational analyses of parameters that track choice and outcome behavior indicated that exposure to MA significantly impaired the ability of rats to use negative outcomes effectively. These MA-induced changes in decision making were similar to those observed in rats following administration of a dopamine D2/3 receptor antagonist. These data use computational models to provide insight into drug-induced maladaptive decision making that may ultimately identify novel targets for the treatment of psychostimulant addiction. We suggest that the disruption in utilization of negative outcomes to adaptively guide dynamic decision making is a new behavioral mechanism by which MA rigidly biases choice behavior.

Dissociation between decision-making under risk and decision-making under ambiguity in premanifest and manifest Huntington's disease.

PubMed

Adjeroud, Najia; Besnard, Jeremy; Verny, Christophe; Prundean, Adriana; Scherer, Clarisse; Gohier, Bénédicte; Bonneau, Dominique; Massioui, Nicole El; Allain, Philippe

2017-08-01

We investigated decision-making under ambiguity (DM-UA) and decision making under risk (DM-UR) in individuals with premanifest and manifest Huntington's disease (HD). Twenty individuals with premanifest HD and 23 individuals with manifest HD, on one hand, and 39 healthy individuals divided into two control groups, on the other, undertook a modified version of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), an adaptation of a DM-UA task, and a modified version of the Game of Dice Task (GDT), an adaptation of a DM-UR task. Participants also filled in a questionnaire of impulsivity and responded to cognitive tests specifically designed to assess executive functions. Compared to controls, individuals with premanifest HD were unimpaired in performing executive tests as well as in decision-making tasks, except for the Stroop task. In contrast, individuals with manifest HD were impaired in both the IGT and executive tasks, but not in the GDT. No sign of impulsivity was observed in individuals with premanifest or manifest HD. Our results suggest that the progression of HD impairs DM-UA without affecting DM-UR, and indicate that decision-making abilities are preserved during the premanifest stage of HD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Designing Tools for Supporting User Decision-Making in e-Commerce

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutcliffe, Alistair; Al-Qaed, Faisal

The paper describes a set of tools designed to support a variety of user decision-making strategies. The tools are complemented by an online advisor so they can be adapted to different domains and users can be guided to adopt appropriate tools for different choices in e-commerce, e.g. purchasing high-value products, exploring product fit to users’ needs, or selecting products which satisfy requirements. The tools range from simple recommenders to decision support by interactive querying and comparison matrices. They were evaluated in a scenario-based experiment which varied the users’ task and motivation, with and without an advisor agent. The results show the tools and advisor were effective in supporting users and agreed with the predictions of ADM (adaptive decision making) theory, on which the design of the tools was based.

Incorporating uncertainty regarding applicability of evidence from meta-analyses into clinical decision making.

PubMed

Kriston, Levente; Meister, Ramona

2014-03-01

Judging applicability (relevance) of meta-analytical findings to particular clinical decision-making situations remains challenging. We aimed to describe an evidence synthesis method that accounts for possible uncertainty regarding applicability of the evidence. We conceptualized uncertainty regarding applicability of the meta-analytical estimates to a decision-making situation as the result of uncertainty regarding applicability of the findings of the trials that were included in the meta-analysis. This trial-level applicability uncertainty can be directly assessed by the decision maker and allows for the definition of trial inclusion probabilities, which can be used to perform a probabilistic meta-analysis with unequal probability resampling of trials (adaptive meta-analysis). A case study with several fictitious decision-making scenarios was performed to demonstrate the method in practice. We present options to elicit trial inclusion probabilities and perform the calculations. The result of an adaptive meta-analysis is a frequency distribution of the estimated parameters from traditional meta-analysis that provides individually tailored information according to the specific needs and uncertainty of the decision maker. The proposed method offers a direct and formalized combination of research evidence with individual clinical expertise and may aid clinicians in specific decision-making situations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Composite collective decision-making

PubMed Central

Czaczkes, Tomer J.; Czaczkes, Benjamin; Iglhaut, Carolin; Heinze, Jürgen

2015-01-01

Individual animals are adept at making decisions and have cognitive abilities, such as memory, which allow them to hone their decisions. Social animals can also share information. This allows social animals to make adaptive group-level decisions. Both individual and collective decision-making systems also have drawbacks and limitations, and while both are well studied, the interaction between them is still poorly understood. Here, we study how individual and collective decision-making interact during ant foraging. We first gathered empirical data on memory-based foraging persistence in the ant Lasius niger. We used these data to create an agent-based model where ants may use social information (trail pheromones), private information (memories) or both to make foraging decisions. The combined use of social and private information by individuals results in greater efficiency at the group level than when either information source was used alone. The modelled ants couple consensus decision-making, allowing them to quickly exploit high-quality food sources, and combined decision-making, allowing different individuals to specialize in exploiting different resource patches. Such a composite collective decision-making system reaps the benefits of both its constituent parts. Exploiting such insights into composite collective decision-making may lead to improved decision-making algorithms. PMID:26019155

Defining Victory: Three Case Studies of Strategic Guidance and Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-06-18

options to formulate guidance? Finally, did the decision makers adequately revisit their decisions in order to adapt to changing situations? The U.S...to leave guidance unchanged in the face of changing political circumstances. Both military and civilian leaders generally discounted the...unpredictable impact of military actions themselves on the strategic goals and therefore failed to adapt to changing situations. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This

Change Processes in Organization.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

1998

This document contains four papers from a symposium on change processes in organizations. "Mid-stream Corrections: Decisions Leaders Make during Organizational Change Processes" (David W. Frantz) analyzes three organizational leaders to determine whether and how they take corrective actions or adapt their decision-making processes when…

Clinical factors and the decision to transfuse chronic dialysis patients.

PubMed

Whitman, Cynthia B; Shreay, Sanatan; Gitlin, Matthew; van Oijen, Martijn G H; Spiegel, Brennan M R

2013-11-01

Red blood cell transfusion was previously the principle therapy for anemia in CKD but became less prevalent after the introduction of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents. This study used adaptive choice-based conjoint analysis to identify preferences and predictors of transfusion decision-making in CKD. A computerized adaptive choice-based conjoint survey was administered between June and August of 2012 to nephrologists, internists, and hospitalists listed in the American Medical Association Masterfile. The survey quantified the relative importance of 10 patient attributes, including hemoglobin levels, age, occult blood in stool, severity of illness, eligibility for transplant, iron indices, erythropoiesis-stimulating agents, cardiovascular disease, and functional status. Triggers of transfusions in common dialysis scenarios were studied, and based on adaptive choice-based conjoint-derived preferences, relative importance by performing multivariable regression to identify predictors of transfusion preferences was assessed. A total of 350 providers completed the survey (n=305 nephrologists; mean age=46 years; 21% women). Of 10 attributes assessed, absolute hemoglobin level was the most important driver of transfusions, accounting for 29% of decision-making, followed by functional status (16%) and cardiovascular comorbidities (12%); 92% of providers transfused when hemoglobin was 7.5 g/dl, independent of other factors. In multivariable regression, Veterans Administration providers were more likely to transfuse at 8.0 g/dl (odds ratio, 5.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.9 to 18.4). Although transplant eligibility explained only 5% of decision-making, nephrologists were five times more likely to value it as important compared with non-nephrologists (odds ratio, 5.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.4 to 11.1). Adaptive choice-based conjoint analysis was useful in predicting influences on transfusion decisions. Hemoglobin level, functional status, and cardiovascular comorbidities most strongly influenced transfusion decision-making, but preference variations were observed among subgroups.

The Sustained Influence of an Error on Future Decision-Making.

PubMed

Schiffler, Björn C; Bengtsson, Sara L; Lundqvist, Daniel

2017-01-01

Post-error slowing (PES) is consistently observed in decision-making tasks after negative feedback. Yet, findings are inconclusive as to whether PES supports performance accuracy. We addressed the role of PES by employing drift diffusion modeling which enabled us to investigate latent processes of reaction times and accuracy on a large-scale dataset (>5,800 participants) of a visual search experiment with emotional face stimuli. In our experiment, post-error trials were characterized by both adaptive and non-adaptive decision processes. An adaptive increase in participants' response threshold was sustained over several trials post-error. Contrarily, an initial decrease in evidence accumulation rate, followed by an increase on the subsequent trials, indicates a momentary distraction of task-relevant attention and resulted in an initial accuracy drop. Higher values of decision threshold and evidence accumulation on the post-error trial were associated with higher accuracy on subsequent trials which further gives credence to these parameters' role in post-error adaptation. Finally, the evidence accumulation rate post-error decreased when the error trial presented angry faces, a finding suggesting that the post-error decision can be influenced by the error context. In conclusion, we demonstrate that error-related response adaptations are multi-component processes that change dynamically over several trials post-error.

Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.

2014-11-01

Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

Smart algorithms and adaptive methods in computational fluid dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinsley Oden, J.

1989-05-01

A review is presented of the use of smart algorithms which employ adaptive methods in processing large amounts of data in computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Smart algorithms use a rationally based set of criteria for automatic decision making in an attempt to produce optimal simulations of complex fluid dynamics problems. The information needed to make these decisions is not known beforehand and evolves in structure and form during the numerical solution of flow problems. Once the code makes a decision based on the available data, the structure of the data may change, and criteria may be reapplied in order to direct the analysis toward an acceptable end. Intelligent decisions are made by processing vast amounts of data that evolve unpredictably during the calculation. The basic components of adaptive methods and their application to complex problems of fluid dynamics are reviewed. The basic components of adaptive methods are: (1) data structures, that is what approaches are available for modifying data structures of an approximation so as to reduce errors; (2) error estimation, that is what techniques exist for estimating error evolution in a CFD calculation; and (3) solvers, what algorithms are available which can function in changing meshes. Numerical examples which demonstrate the viability of these approaches are presented.

Intelligent data management for real-time spacecraft monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwuttke, Ursula M.; Gasser, Les; Abramson, Bruce

1992-01-01

Real-time AI systems have begun to address the challenge of restructuring problem solving to meet real-time constraints by making key trade-offs that pursue less than optimal strategies with minimal impact on system goals. Several approaches for adapting to dynamic changes in system operating conditions are known. However, simultaneously adapting system decision criteria in a principled way has been difficult. Towards this end, a general technique for dynamically making such trade-offs using a combination of decision theory and domain knowledge has been developed. Multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT), a decision theoretic approach for making one-time decisions is discussed and dynamic trade-off evaluation is described as a knowledge-based extension of MAUT that is suitable for highly dynamic real-time environments, and provides an example of dynamic trade-off evaluation applied to a specific data management trade-off in a real-world spacecraft monitoring application.

Adaptive management in the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System: Science-management partnerships for conservation delivery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, C.T.; Lonsdorf, E.V.; Knutson, M.G.; Laskowski, H.P.; Lor, S.K.

2011-01-01

Adaptive management is an approach to recurrent decision making in which uncertainty about the decision is reduced over time through comparison of outcomes predicted by competing models against observed values of those outcomes. The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is a large land management program charged with making natural resource management decisions, which often are made under considerable uncertainty, severe operational constraints, and conditions that limit ability to precisely carry out actions as intended. The NWRS presents outstanding opportunities for the application of adaptive management, but also difficult challenges. We describe two cooperative programs between the Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey to implement adaptive management at scales ranging from small, single refuge applications to large, multi-refuge, multi-region projects. Our experience to date suggests three important attributes common to successful implementation: a vigorous multi-partner collaboration, practical and informative decision framework components, and a sustained commitment to the process. Administrators in both agencies should consider these attributes when developing programs to promote the use and acceptance of adaptive management in the NWRS. ?? 2010 .

Adaptive resource management and the value of information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Byron K.; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Breininger, David R.

2011-01-01

The value of information is a general and broadly applicable concept that has been used for several decades to aid in making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Yet there are relatively few examples of its use in ecology and natural resources management, and almost none that are framed in terms of the future impacts of management decisions. In this paper we discuss the value of information in a context of adaptive management, in which actions are taken sequentially over a timeframe and both future resource conditions and residual uncertainties about resource responses are taken into account. Our objective is to derive the value of reducing or eliminating uncertainty in adaptive decision making. We describe several measures of the value of information, with each based on management objectives that are appropriate for adaptive management. We highlight some mathematical properties of these measures, discuss their geometries, and illustrate them with an example in natural resources management. Accounting for the value of information can help to inform decisions about whether and how much to monitor resource conditions through time.

Adaptive resource management and the value of information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.; Eaton, M.J.; Breininger, D.R.

2011-01-01

The value of information is a general and broadly applicable concept that has been used for several decades to aid in making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Yet there are relatively few examples of its use in ecology and natural resources management, and almost none that are framed in terms of the future impacts of management decisions. In this paper we discuss the value of information in a context of adaptive management, in which actions are taken sequentially over a timeframe and both future resource conditions and residual uncertainties about resource responses are taken into account. Our objective is to derive the value of reducing or eliminating uncertainty in adaptive decision making. We describe several measures of the value of information, with each based on management objectives that are appropriate for adaptive management. We highlight some mathematical properties of these measures, discuss their geometries, and illustrate them with an example in natural resources management. Accounting for the value of information can help to inform decisions about whether and how much to monitor resource conditions through time. ?? 2011.

Career Decision-Making Difficulties of Turkish Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bacanli, Feride

2016-01-01

The purposes of this study are (1) to adapt the Career Decision-Making Difficulties Questionnaire (CDDQ) to Turkish high school students and (2) to examine gender differences, grade differences, and differences between "decided" and "undecided" students. The sample consisted of 2509 adolescent students. The results showed that…

Development of cognitive and affective control networks and decision making.

PubMed

Kar, Bhoomika R; Vijay, Nivita; Mishra, Shreyasi

2013-01-01

Cognitive control and decision making are two important research areas in the realm of higher-order cognition. Control processes such as interference control and monitoring in cognitive and affective contexts have been found to influence the process of decision making. Development of control processes follows a gradual growth pattern associated with the prolonged maturation of underlying neural circuits including the lateral prefrontal cortex, anterior cingulate, and the medial prefrontal cortex. These circuits are also involved in the control of processes that influences decision making, particularly with respect to choice behavior. Developmental studies on affective control have shown distinct patterns of brain activity with adolescents showing greater activation of amygdala whereas adults showing greater activity in ventral prefrontal cortex. Conflict detection, monitoring, and adaptation involve anticipation and subsequent performance adjustments which are also critical to complex decision making. We discuss the gradual developmental patterns observed in two of our studies on conflict monitoring and adaptation in affective and nonaffective contexts. Findings of these studies indicate the need to look at the differences in the effects of the development of cognitive and affective control on decision making in children and particularly adolescents. Neuroimaging studies have shown the involvement of separable neural networks for cognitive (medial prefrontal cortex and anterior cingulate) and affective control (amygdala, ventral medial prefrontal cortex) shows that one system can affect the other also at the neural level. Hence, an understanding of the interaction and balance between the cognitive and affective brain networks may be crucial for self-regulation and decision making during the developmental period, particularly late childhood and adolescence. The chapter highlights the need for empirical investigation on the interaction between the different aspects of cognitive control and decision making from a developmental perspective. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Information Search and Decision Making: The Effects of Age and Complexity on Strategy Use

PubMed Central

Queen, Tara L.; Hess, Thomas M.; Ennis, Gilda E.; Dowd, Keith; Grühn, Daniel

2012-01-01

The impact of task complexity on information search strategy and decision quality was examined in a sample of 135 young, middle-aged, and older adults. We were particularly interested in the competing roles of fluid cognitive ability and domain knowledge and experience, with the former being a negative influence and the latter being a positive influence on older adults’ performance. Participants utilized two decision matrices, which varied in complexity, regarding a consumer purchase. Using process tracing software and an algorithm developed to assess decision strategy, we recorded search behavior, strategy selection, and final decision. Contrary to expectations, older adults were not more likely than the younger age groups to engage in information-minimizing search behaviors in response to increases in task complexity. Similarly, adults of all ages used comparable decision strategies and adapted their strategies to the demands of the task. We also examined decision outcomes in relation to participants’ preferences. Overall, it seems that older adults utilize simpler sets of information primarily reflecting the most valued attributes in making their choice. The results of this study suggest that older adults are adaptive in their approach to decision making and this ability may benefit from accrued knowledge and experience. PMID:22663157

Age differences in dual information-processing modes: implications for cancer decision making.

PubMed

Peters, Ellen; Diefenbach, Michael A; Hess, Thomas M; Västfjäll, Daniel

2008-12-15

Age differences in affective/experiential and deliberative processes have important theoretical implications for cancer decision making, as cancer is often a disease of older adulthood. The authors examined evidence for adult age differences in affective and deliberative information processes, reviewed the sparse evidence about age differences in decision making, and introduced how dual process theories and their findings might be applied to cancer decision making. Age-related declines in the efficiency of deliberative processes predict poorer-quality decisions as we age, particularly when decisions are unfamiliar and the information is numeric. However, age-related adaptive processes, including an increased focus on emotional goals and greater experience, can influence decision making and potentially offset age-related declines. A better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie cancer decision processes in our aging population should ultimately allow us to help older adults to better help themselves.

Age Differences in Dual Information-Processing Modes: Implications for Cancer Decision Making

PubMed Central

Peters, Ellen; Diefenbach, Michael A.; Hess, Thomas M.; Västfjäll, Daniel

2008-01-01

Age differences in affective/experiential and deliberative processes have important theoretical implications for cancer decision making as cancer is often a disease of older adulthood. We examine evidence for adult age differences in affective and deliberative information processes, review the sparse evidence about age differences in decision making and introduce how dual process theories and their findings might be applied to cancer decision making. Age-related declines in the efficiency of deliberative processes predict poorer-quality decisions as we age, particularly when decisions are unfamiliar and the information is numeric. However, age-related adaptive processes, including an increased focus on emotional goals and greater experience, can influence decision making and potentially offset age-related declines. A better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie cancer decision processes in our aging population should ultimately allow us to help older adults to better help themselves. PMID:19058148

Composite collective decision-making.

PubMed

Czaczkes, Tomer J; Czaczkes, Benjamin; Iglhaut, Carolin; Heinze, Jürgen

2015-06-22

Individual animals are adept at making decisions and have cognitive abilities, such as memory, which allow them to hone their decisions. Social animals can also share information. This allows social animals to make adaptive group-level decisions. Both individual and collective decision-making systems also have drawbacks and limitations, and while both are well studied, the interaction between them is still poorly understood. Here, we study how individual and collective decision-making interact during ant foraging. We first gathered empirical data on memory-based foraging persistence in the ant Lasius niger. We used these data to create an agent-based model where ants may use social information (trail pheromones), private information (memories) or both to make foraging decisions. The combined use of social and private information by individuals results in greater efficiency at the group level than when either information source was used alone. The modelled ants couple consensus decision-making, allowing them to quickly exploit high-quality food sources, and combined decision-making, allowing different individuals to specialize in exploiting different resource patches. Such a composite collective decision-making system reaps the benefits of both its constituent parts. Exploiting such insights into composite collective decision-making may lead to improved decision-making algorithms. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Affective forecasting: an unrecognized challenge in making serious health decisions.

PubMed

Halpern, Jodi; Arnold, Robert M

2008-10-01

Patients facing medical decisions that will impact quality of life make assumptions about how they will adjust emotionally to living with health declines and disability. Despite abundant research on decision-making, we have no direct research on how accurately patients envision their future well-being and how this influences their decisions. Outside medicine, psychological research on "affective forecasting" consistently shows that people poorly predict their future ability to adapt to adversity. This finding is important for medicine, since many serious health decisions hinge on quality-of-life judgments. We describe three specific mechanisms for affective forecasting errors that may influence health decisions: focalism, in which people focus more on what will change than on what will stay the same; immune neglect, in which they fail to envision how their own coping skills will lessen their unhappiness; and failure to predict adaptation, in which people fail to envision shifts in what they value. We discuss emotional and social factors that interact with these cognitive biases. We describe how caregivers can recognize these biases in the clinical setting and suggest interventions to help patients recognize and address affective forecasting errors.

Societal Boundaries on Cybernetic Action or Decision-Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schulman, Rosalind; Steg, Doreen E.

This paper discusses the development, application, and implications of a statistical technique--a concordance index--for measuring the restrictions and constrictions (legal and societal) which inhibit individual decision making and adapting behavior. It was found that as sophistication sets in there will be less and less tolerance of these…

[Adapting and validating the generic instrument CollaboRATE™ to measure women's participation in health related decision-making during the reproductive process].

PubMed

Bravo, Paulina; Contreras, Aixa; Dois, Angelina; Villarroel, Luis

2018-05-01

There is a worldwide interest in involving patients in health related decisions, so patients can actively search for therapeutic options and choose course of action that allows them to have better quality of life and wellbeing. The majority of the instruments available to capture the degree of participation in medical decision-making are in English and have been developed in high income countries. To adapt and validate for the Chilean context the instrument CollaboRATE™, to measure women's participation in medical decisions during the reproductive process. Cross-sectional study to adapt and validate the instrument CollaboRATE™. Maternity units in Santiago, Chile. Puerperal women in maternity units of three public hospitals. Translation and back-translation, cultural and linguistic relevance with service users and final revision by experts. Study for validation with 90 puerperal women. The Chilean version of CollaboRATE™ demonstrated to be a reliable instrument to capture the degree of patients' participation in medical decision-making. Cronbach alpha was above 0.89. This study provides the first instrument to capture the prevalence of SDM in a Latin American country. This instrument will be critical in future research efforts that seek to explore to what extent people are being involved in the decisions related to their healthcare. Copyright © 2017. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

When 'solutions of yesterday become problems of today': crisis-ridden decision making in a complex adaptive system (CAS)--the Additional Duty Hours Allowance in Ghana.

PubMed

Agyepong, Irene Akua; Kodua, Augustina; Adjei, Sam; Adam, Taghreed

2012-10-01

Implementation of policies (decisions) in the health sector is sometimes defeated by the system's response to the policy itself. This can lead to counter-intuitive, unanticipated, or more modest effects than expected by those who designed the policy. The health sector fits the characteristics of complex adaptive systems (CAS) and complexity is at the heart of this phenomenon. Anticipating both positive and negative effects of policy decisions, understanding the interests, power and interaction between multiple actors; and planning for the delayed and distal impact of policy decisions are essential for effective decision making in CAS. Failure to appreciate these elements often leads to a series of reductionist approach interventions or 'fixes'. This in turn can initiate a series of negative feedback loops that further complicates the situation over time. In this paper we use a case study of the Additional Duty Hours Allowance (ADHA) policy in Ghana to illustrate these points. Using causal loop diagrams, we unpack the intended and unintended effects of the policy and how these effects evolved over time. The overall goal is to advance our understanding of decision making in complex adaptive systems; and through this process identify some essential elements in formulating, updating and implementing health policy that can help to improve attainment of desired outcomes and minimize negative unintended effects.

Adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Fiji.

PubMed

Weeks, Rebecca; Jupiter, Stacy D

2013-12-01

Adaptive management of natural resources is an iterative process of decision making whereby management strategies are progressively changed or adjusted in response to new information. Despite an increasing focus on the need for adaptive conservation strategies, there remain few applied examples. We describe the 9-year process of adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Kubulau District, Fiji. In 2011, a review of protected area boundaries and management rules was motivated by the need to enhance management effectiveness and the desire to improve resilience to climate change. Through a series of consultations, with the Wildlife Conservation Society providing scientific input to community decision making, the network of marine protected areas was reconfigured so as to maximize resilience and compliance. Factors identified as contributing to this outcome include well-defined resource-access rights; community respect for a flexible system of customary governance; long-term commitment and presence of comanagement partners; supportive policy environment for comanagement; synthesis of traditional management approaches with systematic monitoring; and district-wide coordination, which provided a broader spatial context for adaptive-management decision making. Co-Manejo Adaptativo de una Red de Áreas Marinas Protegidas en Fiyi. © 2013 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.

Achieving realistic performance and decison-making capabilities in computer-generated air forces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banks, Sheila B.; Stytz, Martin R.; Santos, Eugene, Jr.; Zurita, Vincent B.; Benslay, James L., Jr.

1997-07-01

For a computer-generated force (CGF) system to be useful in training environments, it must be able to operate at multiple skill levels, exhibit competency at assigned missions, and comply with current doctrine. Because of the rapid rate of change in distributed interactive simulation (DIS) and the expanding set of performance objectives for any computer- generated force, the system must also be modifiable at reasonable cost and incorporate mechanisms for learning. Therefore, CGF applications must have adaptable decision mechanisms and behaviors and perform automated incorporation of past reasoning and experience into its decision process. The CGF must also possess multiple skill levels for classes of entities, gracefully degrade its reasoning capability in response to system stress, possess an expandable modular knowledge structure, and perform adaptive mission planning. Furthermore, correctly performing individual entity behaviors is not sufficient. Issues related to complex inter-entity behavioral interactions, such as the need to maintain formation and share information, must also be considered. The CGF must also be able to acceptably respond to unforeseen circumstances and be able to make decisions in spite of uncertain information. Because of the need for increased complexity in the virtual battlespace, the CGF should exhibit complex, realistic behavior patterns within the battlespace. To achieve these necessary capabilities, an extensible software architecture, an expandable knowledge base, and an adaptable decision making mechanism are required. Our lab has addressed these issues in detail. The resulting DIS-compliant system is called the automated wingman (AW). The AW is based on fuzzy logic, the common object database (CODB) software architecture, and a hierarchical knowledge structure. We describe the techniques we used to enable us to make progress toward a CGF entity that satisfies the requirements presented above. We present our design and implementation of an adaptable decision making mechanism that uses multi-layered, fuzzy logic controlled situational analysis. Because our research indicates that fuzzy logic can perform poorly under certain circumstances, we combine fuzzy logic inferencing with adversarial game tree techniques for decision making in strategic and tactical engagements. We describe the approach we employed to achieve this fusion. We also describe the automated wingman's system architecture and knowledge base architecture.

Precipitation Variability and Projection Uncertainties in Climate Change Adaptation: Go Local!

EPA Science Inventory

Presentations agenda includes: Regional and local climate change effects: The relevance; Variability and uncertainty in decision- making and adaptation approaches; Adaptation attributes for the U.S. Southwest: Water availability, storage capacity, and related; EPA research...

A holistic strategy for adaptive land management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management. Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adapta...

Emotion-induced loss aversion and striatal-amygdala coupling in low-anxious individuals

PubMed Central

Charpentier, Caroline J.; Martino, Benedetto De; Sim, Alena L.; Sharot, Tali; Roiser, Jonathan P.

2016-01-01

Adapting behavior to changes in the environment is a crucial ability for survival but such adaptation varies widely across individuals. Here, we asked how humans alter their economic decision-making in response to emotional cues, and whether this is related to trait anxiety. Developing an emotional decision-making task for functional magnetic resonance imaging, in which gambling decisions were preceded by emotional and non-emotional primes, we assessed emotional influences on loss aversion, the tendency to overweigh potential monetary losses relative to gains. Our behavioral results revealed that only low-anxious individuals exhibited increased loss aversion under emotional conditions. This emotional modulation of decision-making was accompanied by a corresponding emotion-elicited increase in amygdala-striatal functional connectivity, which correlated with the behavioral effect across participants. Consistent with prior reports of ‘neural loss aversion’, both amygdala and ventral striatum tracked losses more strongly than gains, and amygdala loss aversion signals were exaggerated by emotion, suggesting a potential role for this structure in integrating value and emotion cues. Increased loss aversion and striatal-amygdala coupling induced by emotional cues may reflect the engagement of adaptive harm-avoidance mechanisms in low-anxious individuals, possibly promoting resilience to psychopathology. PMID:26589451

Sex Differences in Animal Models of Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Orsini, Caitlin A.; Setlow, Barry

2016-01-01

The ability to weigh the costs and benefits of various options in order to make an adaptive decision is critical to an organism’s survival and well-being. Many psychiatric diseases are characterized by maladaptive decision-making, indicating the need to better understand the mechanisms underlying this process and the ways in which it is altered in pathological conditions. Great strides have been made in uncovering these mechanisms, but the majority of what is known comes from studies conducted solely in male subjects. In recent years, decision-making research has begun to include females to determine whether sex differences exist and to identify the mechanisms that contribute to such differences. This review will begin by describing studies that have examined sex differences in animal (largely rodent) models of decision-making. Possible explanations, both theoretical and biological, for such differences in decision- making will then be considered. The review will conclude with a discussion of the implications of sex differences in decision-making for understanding psychiatric conditions. PMID:27870448

Effect of regulating anger and sadness on decision-making.

PubMed

Szasz, Paul Lucian; Hofmann, Stefan G; Heilman, Renata M; Curtiss, Joshua

2016-11-01

The aim of the current study was to investigate the effects of reappraisal, acceptance, and rumination for regulating anger and sadness on decision-making. Participants (N = 165) were asked to recall two autobiographical events in which they felt intense anger and sadness, respectively. Participants were then instructed to reappraise, accept, ruminate, or not use any strategies to regulate their feelings of anger and sadness. Following this manipulation, risk aversion, and decision-making strategies were measured using a computer-based measure of risk-taking and a simulated real-life decision-making task. Participants who were instructed to reappraise their emotions showed the least anger and sadness, the most adaptive decision-making strategies, but the least risk aversion as compared to the participants in the other conditions. These findings suggest that emotion regulation strategies of negative affective states have an immediate effect on decision-making and risk-taking behaviors.

[A model for shared decision-making with frail older patients: consensus reached using Delphi technique].

PubMed

van de Pol, M H J; Fluit, C R M G; Lagro, J; Lagro-Janssen, A L M; Olde Rikkert, M G M

2017-01-01

To develop a model for shared decision-making with frail older patients. Online Delphi forum. We used a three-round Delphi technique to reach consensus on the structure of a model for shared decision-making with older patients. The expert panel consisted of 16 patients (round 1), and 59 professionals (rounds 1-3). In round 1, the panel of experts was asked about important steps in the process of shared decision-making and the draft model was introduced. Rounds 2 and 3 were used to adapt the model and test it for 'importance' and 'feasibility'. Consensus for the dynamic shared decision-making model as a whole was achieved for both importance (91% panel agreement) and feasibility (76% panel agreement). Shared decision-making with older patients is a dynamic process. It requires a continuous supportive dialogue between health care professional and patient.

Ecological Rationality: A Framework for Understanding and Aiding the Aging Decision Maker

PubMed Central

Mata, Rui; Pachur, Thorsten; von Helversen, Bettina; Hertwig, Ralph; Rieskamp, Jörg; Schooler, Lael

2012-01-01

The notion of ecological rationality sees human rationality as the result of the adaptive fit between the human mind and the environment. Ecological rationality focuses the study of decision making on two key questions: First, what are the environmental regularities to which people’s decision strategies are matched, and how frequently do these regularities occur in natural environments? Second, how well can people adapt their use of specific strategies to particular environmental regularities? Research on aging suggests a number of changes in cognitive function, for instance, deficits in learning and memory that may impact decision-making skills. However, it has been shown that simple strategies can work well in many natural environments, which suggests that age-related deficits in strategy use may not necessarily translate into reduced decision quality. Consequently, we argue that predictions about the impact of aging on decision performance depend not only on how aging affects decision-relevant capacities but also on the decision environment in which decisions are made. In sum, we propose that the concept of the ecological rationality is crucial to understanding and aiding the aging decision maker. PMID:22347843

Ecological rationality: a framework for understanding and aiding the aging decision maker.

PubMed

Mata, Rui; Pachur, Thorsten; von Helversen, Bettina; Hertwig, Ralph; Rieskamp, Jörg; Schooler, Lael

2012-01-01

The notion of ecological rationality sees human rationality as the result of the adaptive fit between the human mind and the environment. Ecological rationality focuses the study of decision making on two key questions: First, what are the environmental regularities to which people's decision strategies are matched, and how frequently do these regularities occur in natural environments? Second, how well can people adapt their use of specific strategies to particular environmental regularities? Research on aging suggests a number of changes in cognitive function, for instance, deficits in learning and memory that may impact decision-making skills. However, it has been shown that simple strategies can work well in many natural environments, which suggests that age-related deficits in strategy use may not necessarily translate into reduced decision quality. Consequently, we argue that predictions about the impact of aging on decision performance depend not only on how aging affects decision-relevant capacities but also on the decision environment in which decisions are made. In sum, we propose that the concept of the ecological rationality is crucial to understanding and aiding the aging decision maker.

Multiobjective Decision Making Policies and Coordination Mechanisms in Hierarchical Organizations: Results of an Agent-Based Simulation

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

This paper analyses how different coordination modes and different multiobjective decision making approaches interfere with each other in hierarchical organizations. The investigation is based on an agent-based simulation. We apply a modified NK-model in which we map multiobjective decision making as adaptive walk on multiple performance landscapes, whereby each landscape represents one objective. We find that the impact of the coordination mode on the performance and the speed of performance improvement is critically affected by the selected multiobjective decision making approach. In certain setups, the performances achieved with the more complex multiobjective decision making approaches turn out to be less sensitive to the coordination mode than the performances achieved with the less complex multiobjective decision making approaches. Furthermore, we present results on the impact of the nature of interactions among decisions on the achieved performance in multiobjective setups. Our results give guidance on how to control the performance contribution of objectives to overall performance and answer the question how effective certain multiobjective decision making approaches perform under certain circumstances (coordination mode and interdependencies among decisions). PMID:25152926

Single-process versus multiple-strategy models of decision making: evidence from an information intrusion paradigm.

PubMed

Söllner, Anke; Bröder, Arndt; Glöckner, Andreas; Betsch, Tilmann

2014-02-01

When decision makers are confronted with different problems and situations, do they use a uniform mechanism as assumed by single-process models (SPMs) or do they choose adaptively from a set of available decision strategies as multiple-strategy models (MSMs) imply? Both frameworks of decision making have gathered a lot of support, but only rarely have they been contrasted with each other. Employing an information intrusion paradigm for multi-attribute decisions from givens, SPM and MSM predictions on information search, decision outcomes, attention, and confidence judgments were derived and tested against each other in two experiments. The results consistently support the SPM view: Participants seemingly using a "take-the-best" (TTB) strategy do not ignore TTB-irrelevant information as MSMs would predict, but adapt the amount of information searched, choose alternative choice options, and show varying confidence judgments contingent on the quality of the "irrelevant" information. The uniformity of these findings underlines the adequacy of the novel information intrusion paradigm and comprehensively promotes the notion of a uniform decision making mechanism as assumed by single-process models. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach.

PubMed

Cavagnaro, Daniel R; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I; Pitt, Mark A

2013-02-01

Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models.

Adaptive management: The U.S. Department of the Interior technical guide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B K; Szaro, Robert C.; Shapiro, Carl D.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this technical guide is to present an operational definition of adaptive management, identify the conditions in which adaptive management should be considered, and describe the process of using adaptive management for managing natural resources. The guide is not an exhaustive discussion of adaptive management, nor does it include detailed specifications for individual projects. However, it should aid U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) managers and practitioners in determining when and how to apply adaptive management. Adaptive management is framed within the context of structured decision making, with an emphasis on uncertainty about resource responses to management actions and the value of reducing that uncertainty to improve management. Though learning plays a key role in adaptive management, it is seen here as a means to an end, namely good management, and not an end in itself. The operational definition used in the guide is adopted from the National Research Council, which characterizes adaptive management as an iterative learning process producing improved understanding and improved management over time: Adaptive management [is a decision process that] promotes flexible decision making that can be adjusted in the face of uncertainties as outcomes from management actions and other events become better understood. Careful monitoring of these outcomes both advances scientific understanding and helps adjust policies or operations as part of an iterative learning process. Adaptive management also recognizes the importance of natural variability in contributing to ecological resilience and productivity. It is not a ‘trial and error’ process, but rather emphasizes learning while doing. Adaptive management does not represent an end in itself, but rather a means to more effective decisions and enhanced benefits. Its true measure is in how well it helps meet environmental, social, and economic goals, increases scientific knowledge, and reduces tensions among stakeholders. Adaptive management as defined here involves ongoing, real-time learning and knowledge creation, both in a substantive sense and in terms of the adaptive process itself. It is described in what follows in a series of 9 steps, as summarized in section 4.1, involving stakeholder involvement, management objectives, management alternatives, predictive models, monitoring plans, decision making, monitoring responses to management, assessment, and adjustment to management actions. An adaptive approach actively engages stakeholders in all phases of a project over its timeframe, facilitating mutual learning and reinforcing the commitment to learning-based management. Adaptive management in DOI is implemented within a legal context that includes statutory authorities such as the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), the Endangered Species Act, and the Federal Advisory Committee Act. For many important problems now facing the resource management community, adaptive management holds great promise in reducing the uncertainties that limit the effective management of natural resource systems. For many conservation and management problems, utilizing management itself in an experimental context may be the only feasible way to gain the system understanding needed to improve management. Though it is commonly thought that an adaptive approach can produce results quickly at low cost, the opposite is more likely to be true. An initial investment of time and effort will increase the likelihood of better decision making and resource stewardship in the future, but patience, flexibility, and support are needed over the life of an adaptive management project. For these reasons it is important to carefully consider the potential use of an adaptive approach, and to engage in careful planning and evaluation when adaptive management is used.

Understanding and applying principles of social cognition and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Environmental governance systems are under greater pressure to adapt and to cope with increased social and ecological uncertainty from stressors like climate change. We review principles of social cognition and decision making that shape and constrain how environmental governance systems adapt. We focus primarily on the interplay between key decision makers in society and legal systems. We argue that adaptive governance must overcome three cooperative dilemmas to facilitate adaptation: (1) encouraging collaborative problem solving, (2) garnering social acceptance and commitment, and (3) cultivating a culture of trust and tolerance for change and uncertainty. However, to do so governance systems must cope with biases in people’s decision making that cloud their judgment and create conflict. These systems must also satisfy people’s fundamental needs for self-determination, fairness, and security, ensuring that changes to environmental governance are perceived as legitimate, trustworthy, and acceptable. We discuss the implications of these principles for common governance solutions (e.g., public participation, enforcement) and conclude with methodological recommendations. We outline how scholars can investigate the social cognitive principles involved in cases of adaptive governance. Social-ecological stressors place significant pressure on major societal systems, triggering adaptive reforms in human governance and environmental law. Though potentially benefici

Effort-Based Decision Making: A Novel Approach for Assessing Motivation in Schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Green, Michael F.; Horan, William P.; Barch, Deanna M.; Gold, James M.

2015-01-01

Because negative symptoms, including motivational deficits, are a critical unmet need in schizophrenia, there are many ongoing efforts to develop new pharmacological and psychosocial interventions for these impairments. A common challenge of these studies involves how to evaluate and select optimal endpoints. Currently, all studies of negative symptoms in schizophrenia depend on ratings from clinician-conducted interviews. Effort-based decision-making tasks may provide a more objective, and perhaps more sensitive, endpoint for trials of motivational negative symptoms. These tasks assess how much effort a person is willing to exert for a given level of reward. This area has been well-studied with animal models of effort and motivation, and effort-based decision-making tasks have been adapted for use in humans. Very recently, several studies have examined physical and cognitive types of effort-based decision-making tasks in cross-sectional studies of schizophrenia, providing evidence for effort-related impairment in this illness. This article covers the theoretical background on effort-based decision-making tasks to provide a context for the subsequent articles in this theme section. In addition, we review the existing literature of studies using these tasks in schizophrenia, consider some practical challenges in adapting them for use in clinical trials in schizophrenia, and discuss interpretive challenges that are central to these types of tasks. PMID:26089350

An Adaptive Handover Prediction Scheme for Seamless Mobility Based Wireless Networks

PubMed Central

Safa Sadiq, Ali; Fisal, Norsheila Binti; Ghafoor, Kayhan Zrar; Lloret, Jaime

2014-01-01

We propose an adaptive handover prediction (AHP) scheme for seamless mobility based wireless networks. That is, the AHP scheme incorporates fuzzy logic with AP prediction process in order to lend cognitive capability to handover decision making. Selection metrics, including received signal strength, mobile node relative direction towards the access points in the vicinity, and access point load, are collected and considered inputs of the fuzzy decision making system in order to select the best preferable AP around WLANs. The obtained handover decision which is based on the calculated quality cost using fuzzy inference system is also based on adaptable coefficients instead of fixed coefficients. In other words, the mean and the standard deviation of the normalized network prediction metrics of fuzzy inference system, which are collected from available WLANs are obtained adaptively. Accordingly, they are applied as statistical information to adjust or adapt the coefficients of membership functions. In addition, we propose an adjustable weight vector concept for input metrics in order to cope with the continuous, unpredictable variation in their membership degrees. Furthermore, handover decisions are performed in each MN independently after knowing RSS, direction toward APs, and AP load. Finally, performance evaluation of the proposed scheme shows its superiority compared with representatives of the prediction approaches. PMID:25574490

An adaptive handover prediction scheme for seamless mobility based wireless networks.

PubMed

Sadiq, Ali Safa; Fisal, Norsheila Binti; Ghafoor, Kayhan Zrar; Lloret, Jaime

2014-01-01

We propose an adaptive handover prediction (AHP) scheme for seamless mobility based wireless networks. That is, the AHP scheme incorporates fuzzy logic with AP prediction process in order to lend cognitive capability to handover decision making. Selection metrics, including received signal strength, mobile node relative direction towards the access points in the vicinity, and access point load, are collected and considered inputs of the fuzzy decision making system in order to select the best preferable AP around WLANs. The obtained handover decision which is based on the calculated quality cost using fuzzy inference system is also based on adaptable coefficients instead of fixed coefficients. In other words, the mean and the standard deviation of the normalized network prediction metrics of fuzzy inference system, which are collected from available WLANs are obtained adaptively. Accordingly, they are applied as statistical information to adjust or adapt the coefficients of membership functions. In addition, we propose an adjustable weight vector concept for input metrics in order to cope with the continuous, unpredictable variation in their membership degrees. Furthermore, handover decisions are performed in each MN independently after knowing RSS, direction toward APs, and AP load. Finally, performance evaluation of the proposed scheme shows its superiority compared with representatives of the prediction approaches.

To Adapt or Not to Adapt: Navigating an Implementation Conundrum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leko, Melinda M.

2015-01-01

Maximizing the effectiveness of evidence-based practices (EBPs) requires an optimal balance of implementation fidelity and adaptation so EBPs fit local contexts and meet the individual learning needs of students with disabilities. The framework for classifying adaptations presented in this article can help educators make decisions about whether…

Development and initial evaluation of a treatment decision dashboard.

PubMed

Dolan, James G; Veazie, Peter J; Russ, Ann J

2013-04-21

For many healthcare decisions, multiple alternatives are available with different combinations of advantages and disadvantages across several important dimensions. The complexity of current healthcare decisions thus presents a significant barrier to informed decision making, a key element of patient-centered care.Interactive decision dashboards were developed to facilitate decision making in Management, a field marked by similarly complicated choices. These dashboards utilize data visualization techniques to reduce the cognitive effort needed to evaluate decision alternatives and a non-linear flow of information that enables users to review information in a self-directed fashion. Theoretically, both of these features should facilitate informed decision making by increasing user engagement with and understanding of the decision at hand. We sought to determine if the interactive decision dashboard format can be successfully adapted to create a clinically realistic prototype patient decision aid suitable for further evaluation and refinement. We created a computerized, interactive clinical decision dashboard and performed a pilot test of its clinical feasibility and acceptability using a multi-method analysis. The dashboard summarized information about the effectiveness, risks of side effects and drug-drug interactions, out-of-pocket costs, and ease of use of nine analgesic treatment options for knee osteoarthritis. Outcome evaluations included observations of how study participants utilized the dashboard, questionnaires to assess usability, acceptability, and decisional conflict, and an open-ended qualitative analysis. The study sample consisted of 25 volunteers - 7 men and 18 women - with an average age of 51 years. The mean time spent interacting with the dashboard was 4.6 minutes. Mean evaluation scores on scales ranging from 1 (low) to 7 (high) were: mechanical ease of use 6.1, cognitive ease of use 6.2, emotional difficulty 2.7, decision-aiding effectiveness 5.9, clarification of values 6.5, reduction in decisional uncertainty 6.1, and provision of decision-related information 6.0. Qualitative findings were similarly positive. Interactive decision dashboards can be adapted for clinical use and have the potential to foster informed decision making. Additional research is warranted to more rigorously test the effectiveness and efficiency of patient decision dashboards for supporting informed decision making and other aspects of patient-centered care, including shared decision making.

Mental Workload as a Key Factor in Clinical Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Byrne, Aidan

2013-01-01

The decision making process is central to the practice of a clinician and has traditionally been described in terms of the hypothetico-deductive model. More recently, models adapted from cognitive psychology, such as the dual process and script theories have proved useful in explaining patterns of practice not consistent with purely cognitive…

Design and Evaluation of Simulations for the Development of Complex Decision-Making Skills.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartley, Roger; Varley, Glen

2002-01-01

Command and Control Training Using Simulation (CACTUS) is a computer digital mapping system used by police to manage large-scale public events. Audio and video records of adaptive training scenarios using CACTUS show how the simulation develops decision-making skills for strategic and tactical event management. (SK)

Understanding Complex Adaptive Systems by Playing Games

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Bilsen, Arthur; Bekebrede, Geertje; Mayer, Igor

2010-01-01

While educators teach their students about decision making in complex environments, managers have to deal with the complexity of large projects on a daily basis. To make better decisions it is assumed, that the latter would benefit from better understanding of complex phenomena, as do students as the professionals of the future. The goal of this…

Why a Data-Based Decision-Making Intervention Works in Some Schools and Not in Others

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keuning, Trynke; Van Geel, Marieke; Visscher, Adrie

2017-01-01

The use of data for adaptive, tailor-made education can be beneficial for students with learning difficulties. While evaluating the effects of a data-based decision-making (DBDM) intervention on student outcomes, considerable variation between intervention effects, ranging from high-intervention effects to small or even negative intervention…

A plastic corticostriatal circuit model of adaptation in perceptual decision making

PubMed Central

Hsiao, Pao-Yueh; Lo, Chung-Chuan

2013-01-01

The ability to optimize decisions and adapt them to changing environments is a crucial brain function that increase survivability. Although much has been learned about the neuronal activity in various brain regions that are associated with decision making, and about how the nervous systems may learn to achieve optimization, the underlying neuronal mechanisms of how the nervous systems optimize decision strategies with preference given to speed or accuracy, and how the systems adapt to changes in the environment, remain unclear. Based on extensive empirical observations, we addressed the question by extending a previously described cortico-basal ganglia circuit model of perceptual decisions with the inclusion of a dynamic dopamine (DA) system that modulates spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP). We found that, once an optimal model setting that maximized the reward rate was selected, the same setting automatically optimized decisions across different task environments through dynamic balancing between the facilitating and depressing components of the DA dynamics. Interestingly, other model parameters were also optimal if we considered the reward rate that was weighted by the subject's preferences for speed or accuracy. Specifically, the circuit model favored speed if we increased the phasic DA response to the reward prediction error, whereas the model favored accuracy if we reduced the tonic DA activity or the phasic DA responses to the estimated reward probability. The proposed model provides insight into the roles of different components of DA responses in decision adaptation and optimization in a changing environment. PMID:24339814

Clinical Factors and the Decision to Transfuse Chronic Dialysis Patients

PubMed Central

Whitman, Cynthia B.; Shreay, Sanatan; Gitlin, Matthew; van Oijen, Martijn G. H.

2013-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Red blood cell transfusion was previously the principle therapy for anemia in CKD but became less prevalent after the introduction of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents. This study used adaptive choice-based conjoint analysis to identify preferences and predictors of transfusion decision-making in CKD. Design, setting, participants, & measurements A computerized adaptive choice-based conjoint survey was administered between June and August of 2012 to nephrologists, internists, and hospitalists listed in the American Medical Association Masterfile. The survey quantified the relative importance of 10 patient attributes, including hemoglobin levels, age, occult blood in stool, severity of illness, eligibility for transplant, iron indices, erythropoiesis-stimulating agents, cardiovascular disease, and functional status. Triggers of transfusions in common dialysis scenarios were studied, and based on adaptive choice-based conjoint-derived preferences, relative importance by performing multivariable regression to identify predictors of transfusion preferences was assessed. Results A total of 350 providers completed the survey (n=305 nephrologists; mean age=46 years; 21% women). Of 10 attributes assessed, absolute hemoglobin level was the most important driver of transfusions, accounting for 29% of decision-making, followed by functional status (16%) and cardiovascular comorbidities (12%); 92% of providers transfused when hemoglobin was 7.5 g/dl, independent of other factors. In multivariable regression, Veterans Administration providers were more likely to transfuse at 8.0 g/dl (odds ratio, 5.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.9 to 18.4). Although transplant eligibility explained only 5% of decision-making, nephrologists were five times more likely to value it as important compared with non-nephrologists (odds ratio, 5.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.4 to11.1). Conclusions Adaptive choice-based conjoint analysis was useful in predicting influences on transfusion decisions. Hemoglobin level, functional status, and cardiovascular comorbidities most strongly influenced transfusion decision-making, but preference variations were observed among subgroups. PMID:23929931

Adaptive Management for Urban Watersheds: The Slavic Village Pilot Project

EPA Science Inventory

Adaptive management is an environmental management strategy that uses an iterative process of decision-making to reduce the uncertainty in environmental management via system monitoring. A central tenet of adaptive management is that management involves a learning process that ca...

Dopamine D3 Receptor Availability Is Associated with Inflexible Decision Making.

PubMed

Groman, Stephanie M; Smith, Nathaniel J; Petrullli, J Ryan; Massi, Bart; Chen, Lihui; Ropchan, Jim; Huang, Yiyun; Lee, Daeyeol; Morris, Evan D; Taylor, Jane R

2016-06-22

Dopamine D2/3 receptor signaling is critical for flexible adaptive behavior; however, it is unclear whether D2, D3, or both receptor subtypes modulate precise signals of feedback and reward history that underlie optimal decision making. Here, PET with the radioligand [(11)C]-(+)-PHNO was used to quantify individual differences in putative D3 receptor availability in rodents trained on a novel three-choice spatial acquisition and reversal-learning task with probabilistic reinforcement. Binding of [(11)C]-(+)-PHNO in the midbrain was negatively related to the ability of rats to adapt to changes in rewarded locations, but not to the initial learning. Computational modeling of choice behavior in the reversal phase indicated that [(11)C]-(+)-PHNO binding in the midbrain was related to the learning rate and sensitivity to positive, but not negative, feedback. Administration of a D3-preferring agonist likewise impaired reversal performance by reducing the learning rate and sensitivity to positive feedback. These results demonstrate a previously unrecognized role for D3 receptors in select aspects of reinforcement learning and suggest that individual variation in midbrain D3 receptors influences flexible behavior. Our combined neuroimaging, behavioral, pharmacological, and computational approach implicates the dopamine D3 receptor in decision-making processes that are altered in psychiatric disorders. Flexible decision-making behavior is dependent upon dopamine D2/3 signaling in corticostriatal brain regions. However, the role of D3 receptors in adaptive, goal-directed behavior has not been thoroughly investigated. By combining PET imaging with the D3-preferring radioligand [(11)C]-(+)-PHNO, pharmacology, a novel three-choice probabilistic discrimination and reversal task and computational modeling of behavior in rats, we report that naturally occurring variation in [(11)C]-(+)-PHNO receptor availability relates to specific aspects of flexible decision making. We confirm these relationships using a D3-preferring agonist, thus identifying a unique role of midbrain D3 receptors in decision-making processes. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/366732-10$15.00/0.

Using social network analysis to evaluate health-related adaptation decision-making in Cambodia.

PubMed

Bowen, Kathryn J; Alexander, Damon; Miller, Fiona; Dany, Va

2014-01-30

Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or 'shadow networks') in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance 'map' in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes.

Using Social Network Analysis to Evaluate Health-Related Adaptation Decision-Making in Cambodia

PubMed Central

Bowen, Kathryn J.; Alexander, Damon; Miller, Fiona; Dany, Va

2014-01-01

Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or ‘shadow networks’) in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance ‘map’ in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes. PMID:24487452

Information search and decision making: effects of age and complexity on strategy use.

PubMed

Queen, Tara L; Hess, Thomas M; Ennis, Gilda E; Dowd, Keith; Grühn, Daniel

2012-12-01

The impact of task complexity on information search strategy and decision quality was examined in a sample of 135 young, middle-aged, and older adults. We were particularly interested in the competing roles of fluid cognitive ability and domain knowledge and experience, with the former being a negative influence and the latter being a positive influence on older adults' performance. Participants utilized 2 decision matrices, which varied in complexity, regarding a consumer purchase. Using process tracing software and an algorithm developed to assess decision strategy, we recorded search behavior, strategy selection, and final decision. Contrary to expectations, older adults were not more likely than the younger age groups to engage in information-minimizing search behaviors in response to increases in task complexity. Similarly, adults of all ages used comparable decision strategies and adapted their strategies to the demands of the task. We also examined decision outcomes in relation to participants' preferences. Overall, it seems that older adults utilize simpler sets of information primarily reflecting the most valued attributes in making their choice. The results of this study suggest that older adults are adaptive in their approach to decision making and that this ability may benefit from accrued knowledge and experience. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

SU-D-BRB-05: Quantum Learning for Knowledge-Based Response-Adaptive Radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

El Naqa, I; Ten, R

Purpose: There is tremendous excitement in radiotherapy about applying data-driven methods to develop personalized clinical decisions for real-time response-based adaptation. However, classical statistical learning methods lack in terms of efficiency and ability to predict outcomes under conditions of uncertainty and incomplete information. Therefore, we are investigating physics-inspired machine learning approaches by utilizing quantum principles for developing a robust framework to dynamically adapt treatments to individual patient’s characteristics and optimize outcomes. Methods: We studied 88 liver SBRT patients with 35 on non-adaptive and 53 on adaptive protocols. Adaptation was based on liver function using a split-course of 3+2 fractions with amore » month break. The radiotherapy environment was modeled as a Markov decision process (MDP) of baseline and one month into treatment states. The patient environment was modeled by a 5-variable state represented by patient’s clinical and dosimetric covariates. For comparison of classical and quantum learning methods, decision-making to adapt at one month was considered. The MDP objective was defined by the complication-free tumor control (P{sup +}=TCPx(1-NTCP)). A simple regression model represented state-action mapping. Single bit in classical MDP and a qubit of 2-superimposed states in quantum MDP represented the decision actions. Classical decision selection was done using reinforcement Q-learning and quantum searching was performed using Grover’s algorithm, which applies uniform superposition over possible states and yields quadratic speed-up. Results: Classical/quantum MDPs suggested adaptation (probability amplitude ≥0.5) 79% of the time for splitcourses and 100% for continuous-courses. However, the classical MDP had an average adaptation probability of 0.5±0.22 while the quantum algorithm reached 0.76±0.28. In cases where adaptation failed, classical MDP yielded 0.31±0.26 average amplitude while the quantum approach averaged a more optimistic 0.57±0.4, but with high phase fluctuations. Conclusion: Our results demonstrate that quantum machine learning approaches provide a feasible and promising framework for real-time and sequential clinical decision-making in adaptive radiotherapy.« less

Adaptation by Stealth: Understanding climate information use across scales and decision spaces in water management in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchhoff, C.; Vang Rasmussen, L.; Lemos, M. C.

2016-12-01

While there has been considerable focus on understanding how factors related to the creation of climate knowledge affect its uptake and use, less attention has been paid to the actors, decisions, and processes through which climate information supports, or fails to support, action. This is particularly the case concerning how different scales of decision-making influence information uptake. In this study, we seek to understand how water and resource managers' decision space influences climate information use in two Great Lakes watersheds. We find that despite the availability of tailored climate information, actual use of information in decision making remains low. Reasons include: a) lack of willingness to place climate on agendas because local managers perceive climate change as politically risky and a difficult and intangible problem; b) lack of formal mandate or authority at the city and county scale to translate climate information into on-the-ground action, c) problems with the information itself, and d) perceived lack of demand for climate information by those managers who have the mandate and authority (e.g. at the state level) to use (or help others use) climate information. Our findings suggest that 1) climate scientists and information brokers should produce information that meets a range of decision needs and reserve intensive tailoring efforts for decision makers who have authority and willingness to employ climate information, 2) without support from higher levels of decision-making (e.g. state) it is unlikely that climate information use for adaptation decisions will accelerate significantly in the next few years, and 3) the trend towards adopting more sustainability and resilience practices over climate-specific actions should be supported as an important component of the climate adaptation repertoire.

How Does the Brain Implement Adaptive Decision Making to Eat?

PubMed Central

Walsh, B. Timothy; Kaye, Walter; Geliebter, Allan

2015-01-01

Adaptive decision making to eat is crucial for survival, but in anorexia nervosa, the brain persistently supports reduced food intake despite a growing need for energy. How the brain persists in reducing food intake, sometimes even to the point of death and despite the evolution of multiple mechanisms to ensure survival by governing adaptive eating behaviors, remains mysterious. Neural substrates belong to the reward-habit system, which could differ among the eating disorders. The present review provides an overview of neural circuitry of restrictive food choice, binge eating, and the contribution of specific serotonin receptors. One possibility is that restrictive food intake critically engages goal-directed (decision making) systems and “habit,” supporting the view that persistent caloric restriction mimics some aspects of addiction to drugs of abuse. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT An improved understanding of the neural basis of eating disorders is a timely challenge because these disorders can be deadly. Up to 70 million of people in the world suffer from eating disorders. Anorexia nervosa affects 1–4% of women in United States and is the first cause of death among adolescents in Europe. Studies relying on animal models suggest that decision making to eat (or not) can prevail over actual energy requirements due to emotional disturbances resulting in abnormal habitual behavior, mimicking dependence. These recent studies provide a foundation for developing more specific and effective interventions for these disorders. PMID:26468187

Polya's bees: A model of decentralized decision-making.

PubMed

Golman, Russell; Hagmann, David; Miller, John H

2015-09-01

How do social systems make decisions with no single individual in control? We observe that a variety of natural systems, including colonies of ants and bees and perhaps even neurons in the human brain, make decentralized decisions using common processes involving information search with positive feedback and consensus choice through quorum sensing. We model this process with an urn scheme that runs until hitting a threshold, and we characterize an inherent tradeoff between the speed and the accuracy of a decision. The proposed common mechanism provides a robust and effective means by which a decentralized system can navigate the speed-accuracy tradeoff and make reasonably good, quick decisions in a variety of environments. Additionally, consensus choice exhibits systemic risk aversion even while individuals are idiosyncratically risk-neutral. This too is adaptive. The model illustrates how natural systems make decentralized decisions, illuminating a mechanism that engineers of social and artificial systems could imitate.

Working memory capacity as controlled attention in tactical decision making.

PubMed

Furley, Philip A; Memmert, Daniel

2012-06-01

The controlled attention theory of working memory capacity (WMC, Engle 2002) suggests that WMC represents a domain free limitation in the ability to control attention and is predictive of an individual's capability of staying focused, avoiding distraction and impulsive errors. In the present paper we test the predictive power of WMC in computer-based sport decision-making tasks. Experiment 1 demonstrated that high-WMC athletes were better able at focusing their attention on tactical decision making while blocking out irrelevant auditory distraction. Experiment 2 showed that high-WMC athletes were more successful at adapting their tactical decision making according to the situation instead of relying on prepotent inappropriate decisions. The present results provide additional but also unique support for the controlled attention theory of WMC by demonstrating that WMC is predictive of controlling attention in complex settings among different modalities and highlight the importance of working memory in tactical decision making.

Polya’s bees: A model of decentralized decision-making

PubMed Central

Golman, Russell; Hagmann, David; Miller, John H.

2015-01-01

How do social systems make decisions with no single individual in control? We observe that a variety of natural systems, including colonies of ants and bees and perhaps even neurons in the human brain, make decentralized decisions using common processes involving information search with positive feedback and consensus choice through quorum sensing. We model this process with an urn scheme that runs until hitting a threshold, and we characterize an inherent tradeoff between the speed and the accuracy of a decision. The proposed common mechanism provides a robust and effective means by which a decentralized system can navigate the speed-accuracy tradeoff and make reasonably good, quick decisions in a variety of environments. Additionally, consensus choice exhibits systemic risk aversion even while individuals are idiosyncratically risk-neutral. This too is adaptive. The model illustrates how natural systems make decentralized decisions, illuminating a mechanism that engineers of social and artificial systems could imitate. PMID:26601255

Neuromodulation of reward-based learning and decision making in human aging

PubMed Central

Eppinger, Ben; Hämmerer, Dorothea; Li, Shu-Chen

2013-01-01

In this paper, we review the current literature to highlight relations between age-associated declines in dopaminergic and serotonergic neuromodulation and adult age differences in adaptive goal-directed behavior. Specifically, we focus on evidence suggesting that deficits in neuromodulation contribute to older adults’ behavioral disadvantages in learning and decision making. These deficits are particularly pronounced when reward information is uncertain or the task context requires flexible adaptations to changing stimulus–reward contingencies. Moreover, emerging evidence points to age-related differences in the sensitivity to rewarding and aversive outcomes during learning and decision making if the acquisition of behavior critically depends on outcome processing. These age-related asymmetries in outcome valuation may be explained by age differences in the interplay of dopaminergic and serotonergic neuromodulation. This hypothesis is based on recent neurocomputational and psychopharmacological approaches, which suggest that dopamine and serotonin serve opponent roles in regulating the balance between approach behavior and inhibitory control. Studying adaptive regulation of behavior across the adult life span may shed new light on how the aging brain changes functionally in response to its diminishing resources. PMID:22023564

Will current probabilistic climate change information, as such, improve adaptation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, A.; Smith, L. A.

2012-04-01

Probabilistic climate scenarios are currently being provided to end users, to employ as probabilities in adaptation decision making, with the explicit suggestion that they quantify the impacts of climate change relevant to a variety of sectors. These "probabilities" are, however, rather sensitive to the assumptions in, and the structure of the modelling approaches used to generate them. It is often argued that stakeholders require probabilistic climate change information to adequately evaluate and plan adaptation pathways. On the other hand, some circumstantial evidence suggests that on the ground decision making rarely uses well defined probability distributions of climate change as inputs. Nevertheless it is within this context of probability distributions of climate change that we discuss possible drawbacks of supplying information that, while presented as robust and decision relevant, , is in fact unlikely to be so due to known flaws both in the underlying models and in the methodology used to "account for" those known flaws. How might one use a probability forecast that is expected to change in the future, not due to a refinement in our information but due to fundamental flaws in its construction? What then are the alternatives? While the answer will depend on the context of the problem at hand, a good approach will be strongly informed by the timescale of the given planning decision, and the consideration of all the non-climatic factors that have to be taken into account in the corresponding risk assessment. Using a water resources system as an example, we illustrate an alternative approach to deal with these challenges and make robust adaptation decisions today.

Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach

PubMed Central

Cavagnaro, Daniel R.; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I.; Pitt, Mark A.

2014-01-01

Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models. PMID:24532856

Consideration of reference points for the management of renewable resources under an adaptive management paradigm

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irwin, Brian J.; Conroy, Michael J.

2013-01-01

The success of natural resource management depends on monitoring, assessment and enforcement. In support of these efforts, reference points (RPs) are often viewed as critical values of management-relevant indicators. This paper considers RPs from the standpoint of objective-driven decision making in dynamic resource systems, guided by principles of structured decision making (SDM) and adaptive resource management (AM). During the development of natural resource policy, RPs have been variously treated as either ‘targets’ or ‘triggers’. Under a SDM/AM paradigm, target RPs correspond approximately to value-based objectives, which may in turn be either of fundamental interest to stakeholders or intermediaries to other central objectives. By contrast, trigger RPs correspond to decision rules that are presumed to lead to desirable outcomes (such as the programme targets). Casting RPs as triggers or targets within a SDM framework is helpful towards clarifying why (or whether) a particular metric is appropriate. Further, the benefits of a SDM/AM process include elucidation of underlying untested assumptions that may reveal alternative metrics for use as RPs. Likewise, a structured decision-analytic framework may also reveal that failure to achieve management goals is not because the metrics are wrong, but because the decision-making process in which they are embedded is insufficiently robust to uncertainty, is not efficiently directed at producing a resource objective, or is incapable of adaptation to new knowledge.

A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

2013-12-01

Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more frequent replenishment with that of implementation cost. We determine that a business as usual scenario, where no adaptation is implemented, would lead to an average beach recession of 12.02 meters and a maximum beach recession of 33.23 meters during the period of 2010-2100. The best adaptation option modeled was a fixed replenishment of 5 meters every 20 years leading to 4 replenishment events with an average beach recession of 2.99 meters and a maximum beach recession of 15.02 meters during the period of 2010-2100. The presented simulations explicitly address the uncertainty of future impacts due to sea level rise and storm surge and show a range of options that could be considered by a local council to meet their policy objectives. The simulation runs provide managers the ability to consider the utility of various adaptation options and the timing and costs of implementation. Such information provides an evidence-based practice to decision-making and allows policy makers to transparently make decisions based on best estimates of modeled climate change.

The GRADE Evidence to Decision (EtD) framework for health system and public health decisions.

PubMed

Moberg, Jenny; Oxman, Andrew D; Rosenbaum, Sarah; Schünemann, Holger J; Guyatt, Gordon; Flottorp, Signe; Glenton, Claire; Lewin, Simon; Morelli, Angela; Rada, Gabriel; Alonso-Coello, Pablo

2018-05-29

To describe a framework for people making and using evidence-informed health system and public health recommendations and decisions. We developed the GRADE Evidence to Decision (EtD) framework for health system and public health decisions as part of the DECIDE project, in which we simultaneously developed frameworks for these and other types of healthcare decisions, including clinical recommendations, coverage decisions and decisions about diagnostic tests. Building on GRADE EtD tables, we used an iterative approach, including brainstorming, consultation of the literature and with stakeholders, and an international survey of policy-makers. We applied the framework to diverse examples, conducted workshops and user testing with health system and public health guideline developers and policy-makers, and observed and tested its use in real-life guideline panels. All the GRADE EtD frameworks share the same basic structure, including sections for formulating the question, making an assessment and drawing conclusions. Criteria listed in the assessment section of the health system and public health framework cover the important factors for making these types of decisions; in addition to the effects and economic impact of an option, the priority of the problem, the impact of the option on equity, and its acceptability and feasibility are important considerations that can inform both whether and how to implement an option. Because health system and public health interventions are often complex, detailed implementation considerations should be made when making a decision. The certainty of the evidence is often low or very low, but decision-makers must still act. Monitoring and evaluation are therefore often important considerations for these types of decisions. We illustrate the different components of the EtD framework for health system and public health decisions by presenting their application in a framework adapted from a real-life guideline. This framework provides a structured and transparent approach to support policy-making informed by the best available research evidence, while making the basis for decisions accessible to those whom they will affect. The health system and public health EtD framework can also be used to facilitate dissemination of recommendations and enable decision-makers to adopt, and adapt, recommendations or decisions.

Decision-Making in a Changing World: A Study in Autism Spectrum Disorders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robic, S.; Sonié, S.; Fonlupt, P.; Henaff, M.-A.; Touil, N.; Coricelli, G.; Mattout, J.; Schmitz, C.

2015-01-01

To learn to deal with the unexpected is essential to adaptation to a social, therefore often unpredictable environment. Fourteen adults with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and 15 controls underwent a decision-making task aimed at investigating the influence of either a social or a non-social environment, and its interaction with either a stable…

Ecological and evolutionary traps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schlaepfer, Martin A.; Runge, M.C.; Sherman, P.W.

2002-01-01

Organisms often rely on environmental cues to make behavioral and life-history decisions. However, in environments that have been altered suddenly by humans, formerly reliable cues might no longer be associated with adaptive outcomes. In such cases, organisms can become 'trapped' by their evolutionary responses to the cues and experience reduced survival or reproduction. Ecological traps occur when organisms make poor habitat choices based on cues that correlated formerly with habitat quality. Ecological traps are part of a broader phenomenon, evolutionary traps, involving a dissociation between cues that organisms use to make any behavioral or life-history decision and outcomes normally associated with that decision. A trap can lead to extinction if a population falls below a critical size threshold before adaptation to the novel environment occurs. Conservation and management protocols must be designed in light of, rather than in spite of, the behavioral mechanisms and evolutionary history of populations and species to avoid 'trapping' them.

Decision Making Under Objective Risk Conditions-a Review of Cognitive and Emotional Correlates, Strategies, Feedback Processing, and External Influences.

PubMed

Schiebener, Johannes; Brand, Matthias

2015-06-01

While making decisions under objective risk conditions, the probabilities of the consequences of the available options are either provided or calculable. Brand et al. (Neural Networks 19:1266-1276, 2006) introduced a model describing the neuro-cognitive processes involved in such decisions. In this model, executive functions associated with activity in the fronto-striatal loop are important for developing and applying decision-making strategies, and for verifying, adapting, or revising strategies according to feedback. Emotional rewards and punishments learned from such feedback accompany these processes. In this literature review, we found support for the role of executive functions, but also found evidence for the importance of further cognitive abilities in decision making. Moreover, in addition to reflective processing (driven by cognition), decisions can be guided by impulsive processing (driven by anticipation of emotional reward and punishment). Reflective and impulsive processing may interact during decision making, affecting the evaluation of available options, as both processes are affected by feedback. Decision-making processes are furthermore modulated by individual attributes (e.g., age), and external influences (e.g., stressors). Accordingly, we suggest a revised model of decision making under objective risk conditions.

Follow the heart or the head? The interactive influence model of emotion and cognition.

PubMed

Luo, Jiayi; Yu, Rongjun

2015-01-01

The experience of emotion has a powerful influence on daily-life decision making. Following Plato's description of emotion and reason as two horses pulling us in opposite directions, modern dual-system models of decision making endorse the antagonism between reason and emotion. Decision making is perceived as the competition between an emotion system that is automatic but prone to error and a reason system that is slow but rational. The reason system (in "the head") reins in our impulses (from "the heart") and overrides our snap judgments. However, from Darwin's evolutionary perspective, emotion is adaptive, guiding us to make sound decisions in uncertainty. Here, drawing findings from behavioral economics and neuroeconomics, we provide a new model, labeled "The interactive influence model of emotion and cognition," to elaborate the relationship of emotion and reason in decision making. Specifically, in our model, we identify factors that determine when emotions override reason and delineate the type of contexts in which emotions help or hurt decision making. We then illustrate how cognition modulates emotion and how they cooperate to affect decision making.

Emotion-induced loss aversion and striatal-amygdala coupling in low-anxious individuals.

PubMed

Charpentier, Caroline J; De Martino, Benedetto; Sim, Alena L; Sharot, Tali; Roiser, Jonathan P

2016-04-01

Adapting behavior to changes in the environment is a crucial ability for survival but such adaptation varies widely across individuals. Here, we asked how humans alter their economic decision-making in response to emotional cues, and whether this is related to trait anxiety. Developing an emotional decision-making task for functional magnetic resonance imaging, in which gambling decisions were preceded by emotional and non-emotional primes, we assessed emotional influences on loss aversion, the tendency to overweigh potential monetary losses relative to gains. Our behavioral results revealed that only low-anxious individuals exhibited increased loss aversion under emotional conditions. This emotional modulation of decision-making was accompanied by a corresponding emotion-elicited increase in amygdala-striatal functional connectivity, which correlated with the behavioral effect across participants. Consistent with prior reports of 'neural loss aversion', both amygdala and ventral striatum tracked losses more strongly than gains, and amygdala loss aversion signals were exaggerated by emotion, suggesting a potential role for this structure in integrating value and emotion cues. Increased loss aversion and striatal-amygdala coupling induced by emotional cues may reflect the engagement of adaptive harm-avoidance mechanisms in low-anxious individuals, possibly promoting resilience to psychopathology. © The Author (2015). Published by Oxford University Press.

Multimorbidity and Decision-Making Preferences Among Older Adults.

PubMed

Chi, Winnie C; Wolff, Jennifer; Greer, Raquel; Dy, Sydney

2017-11-01

Understanding individuals' preferences for participating in health care decisions is foundational to delivering person-centered care. We aimed to (1) explore preferences for health care decision making among older adults, and (2) identify multimorbidity profiles associated with preferring less active, ie, passive, participation among older US adults. Ours was a cross-sectional, nationally representative study of 2,017 National Health and Aging Trends Study respondents. Passive decision-making preference was defined as preferring to leave decisions to physicians. Multimorbidity profiles, based on 13 prevalent chronic conditions, were examined as (1) presence of 2 or more conditions, (2) a simple conditions count, and (3) a condition clusters count. Multiple logistic regression was used with adjustment for age, sex, education, English proficiency, and mobility limitation. Most older adults preferred to participate actively in making health care decisions. Older adults with 4 or more conditions, however, and those with multiple condition clusters are relatively less likely to prefer active decision making. Primary care physicians should initiate a shared decision-making process with older adults with 4 or more conditions or multiple condition clusters. Physicians should anticipate variation in decision-making preferences among older adults and adapt a decision-making process that suits individuals' preferences for participation to ensure person-centered care delivery. © 2017 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

Repeated causal decision making.

PubMed

Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn

2013-01-01

Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in such situations and how they use their knowledge to adapt to changes in the decision context. Our studies show that decision makers' behavior is strongly contingent on their causal beliefs and that people exploit their causal knowledge to assess the consequences of changes in the decision problem. A high consistency between hypotheses about causal structure, causally expected values, and actual choices was observed. The experiments show that (a) existing causal hypotheses guide the interpretation of decision feedback, (b) consequences of decisions are used to revise existing causal beliefs, and (c) decision makers use the experienced feedback to induce a causal model of the choice situation even when they have no initial causal hypotheses, which (d) enables them to adapt their choices to changes of the decision problem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland.

PubMed

McDermott, T K J; Surminski, S

2018-06-13

Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting 'acceptable risk levels' and identifying 'adequate' protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process-this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of remedial action.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDermott, T. K. J.; Surminski, S.

2018-06-01

Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting `acceptable risk levels' and identifying `adequate' protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process-this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of remedial action. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Separating Business Logic from Medical Knowledge in Digital Clinical Workflows Using Business Process Model and Notation and Arden Syntax.

PubMed

de Bruin, Jeroen S; Adlassnig, Klaus-Peter; Leitich, Harald; Rappelsberger, Andrea

2018-01-01

Evidence-based clinical guidelines have a major positive effect on the physician's decision-making process. Computer-executable clinical guidelines allow for automated guideline marshalling during a clinical diagnostic process, thus improving the decision-making process. Implementation of a digital clinical guideline for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B as a computerized workflow, thereby separating business logic from medical knowledge and decision-making. We used the Business Process Model and Notation language system Activiti for business logic and workflow modeling. Medical decision-making was performed by an Arden-Syntax-based medical rule engine, which is part of the ARDENSUITE software. We succeeded in creating an electronic clinical workflow for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis B, where institution-specific medical decision-making processes could be adapted without modifying the workflow business logic. Separation of business logic and medical decision-making results in more easily reusable electronic clinical workflows.

Shared Decision Making in ICUs: An American College of Critical Care Medicine and American Thoracic Society Policy Statement.

PubMed

Kon, Alexander A; Davidson, Judy E; Morrison, Wynne; Danis, Marion; White, Douglas B

2016-01-01

Shared decision making is endorsed by critical care organizations; however, there remains confusion about what shared decision making is, when it should be used, and approaches to promote partnerships in treatment decisions. The purpose of this statement is to define shared decision making, recommend when shared decision making should be used, identify the range of ethically acceptable decision-making models, and present important communication skills. The American College of Critical Care Medicine and American Thoracic Society Ethics Committees reviewed empirical research and normative analyses published in peer-reviewed journals to generate recommendations. Recommendations approved by consensus of the full Ethics Committees of American College of Critical Care Medicine and American Thoracic Society were included in the statement. Six recommendations were endorsed: 1) DEFINITION: Shared decision making is a collaborative process that allows patients, or their surrogates, and clinicians to make healthcare decisions together, taking into account the best scientific evidence available, as well as the patient's values, goals, and preferences. 2) Clinicians should engage in a shared decision making process to define overall goals of care (including decisions regarding limiting or withdrawing life-prolonging interventions) and when making major treatment decisions that may be affected by personal values, goals, and preferences. 3) Clinicians should use as their "default" approach a shared decision making process that includes three main elements: information exchange, deliberation, and making a treatment decision. 4) A wide range of decision-making approaches are ethically supportable, including patient- or surrogate-directed and clinician-directed models. Clinicians should tailor the decision-making process based on the preferences of the patient or surrogate. 5) Clinicians should be trained in communication skills. 6) Research is needed to evaluate decision-making strategies. Patient and surrogate preferences for decision-making roles regarding value-laden choices range from preferring to exercise significant authority to ceding such authority to providers. Clinicians should adapt the decision-making model to the needs and preferences of the patient or surrogate.

Untangling Risk in Water Supply Systems: What Factors Drive Long-term Adaptation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeff, H. B.; Lin, L.; Band, L. E.; Reed, P. M.; Characklis, G. W.

2016-12-01

Deeply uncertain factors like climate change, the hydrologic impacts of urbanization, forest evolution, and long-term demand forecasts make water supply planning a `wicked' problem. The traditional technique of assessing risk based on historical observations can be inadequate in the face of environmental non-stationarity. However, competing models and limited observational data make it difficult for decision makers and experts to agree on how much uncertainty should be built into analyses of risk, particularly at the timescales relevant to long-term investments in water infrastructure. Further, the physical connectivity of these deeply uncertain processes create inter-related systems, amplifying the challenges of a `worst case scenario'. The development of adaptive systems and planning processes provide solutions that have been shown to meet technical, environmental, and social objectives at lower costs. Instead of developing plans with fixed targets for the timing of actions, adaptive plans develop risk metrics and thresholds that are able to integrate new information to determine when conditions reach a `tipping point' which necessitates action. It is an open question as to how new information can be best integrated into the decision-making process (i.e. how much weight do we give new observations relative to the historical record), but a better understanding of the way the relevant systems are expected to evolve and change over time could inform these decisions. In this study, we use linked, dynamic models of temperature and precipitation changes, forest evolution, urbanization, hydrology, and water demand to develop scenarios for an adaptive water management framework that uses risk-based metrics to make short- and long-term decisions. The impact of individual environmental processes on the adaptive capability of this management framework is evaluated through problem formulations that successively increase the complexity of the uncertainty scenarios. Although this work is focused on a group of water utilities in the Research Triangle of North Carolina, results provide insights into the conditions under which environmental changes could outpace our adaptive skill. In turn, risk measures can be designed to identify these conditions and better inform adaptive planning methods.

Impaired Flexible Reward-Based Decision-Making in Binge Eating Disorder: Evidence from Computational Modeling and Functional Neuroimaging.

PubMed

Reiter, Andrea M F; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Schlagenhauf, Florian; Deserno, Lorenz

2017-02-01

Despite its clinical relevance and the recent recognition as a diagnostic category in the DSM-5, binge eating disorder (BED) has rarely been investigated from a cognitive neuroscientific perspective targeting a more precise neurocognitive profiling of the disorder. BED patients suffer from a lack of behavioral control during recurrent binge eating episodes and thus fail to adapt their behavior in the face of negative consequences, eg, high risk for obesity. To examine impairments in flexible reward-based decision-making, we exposed BED patients (n=22) and matched healthy individuals (n=22) to a reward-guided decision-making task during functional resonance imaging (fMRI). Performing fMRI analysis informed via computational modeling of choice behavior, we were able to identify specific signatures of altered decision-making in BED. On the behavioral level, we observed impaired behavioral adaptation in BED, which was due to enhanced switching behavior, a putative deficit in striking a balance between exploration and exploitation appropriately. This was accompanied by diminished activation related to exploratory decisions in the anterior insula/ventro-lateral prefrontal cortex. Moreover, although so-called model-free reward prediction errors remained intact, representation of ventro-medial prefrontal learning signatures, incorporating inference on unchosen options, was reduced in BED, which was associated with successful decision-making in the task. On the basis of a computational psychiatry account, the presented findings contribute to defining a neurocognitive phenotype of BED.

Impaired Flexible Reward-Based Decision-Making in Binge Eating Disorder: Evidence from Computational Modeling and Functional Neuroimaging

PubMed Central

Reiter, Andrea M F; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Schlagenhauf, Florian; Deserno, Lorenz

2017-01-01

Despite its clinical relevance and the recent recognition as a diagnostic category in the DSM-5, binge eating disorder (BED) has rarely been investigated from a cognitive neuroscientific perspective targeting a more precise neurocognitive profiling of the disorder. BED patients suffer from a lack of behavioral control during recurrent binge eating episodes and thus fail to adapt their behavior in the face of negative consequences, eg, high risk for obesity. To examine impairments in flexible reward-based decision-making, we exposed BED patients (n=22) and matched healthy individuals (n=22) to a reward-guided decision-making task during functional resonance imaging (fMRI). Performing fMRI analysis informed via computational modeling of choice behavior, we were able to identify specific signatures of altered decision-making in BED. On the behavioral level, we observed impaired behavioral adaptation in BED, which was due to enhanced switching behavior, a putative deficit in striking a balance between exploration and exploitation appropriately. This was accompanied by diminished activation related to exploratory decisions in the anterior insula/ventro-lateral prefrontal cortex. Moreover, although so-called model-free reward prediction errors remained intact, representation of ventro–medial prefrontal learning signatures, incorporating inference on unchosen options, was reduced in BED, which was associated with successful decision-making in the task. On the basis of a computational psychiatry account, the presented findings contribute to defining a neurocognitive phenotype of BED. PMID:27301429

Participation in Decision Making as a Property of Complex Adaptive Systems: Developing and Testing a Measure

PubMed Central

Anderson, Ruth A.; Hsieh, Pi-Ching; Su, Hui Fang; Landerman, Lawrence R.; McDaniel, Reuben R.

2013-01-01

Objectives. To (1) describe participation in decision-making as a systems-level property of complex adaptive systems and (2) present empirical evidence of reliability and validity of a corresponding measure. Method. Study 1 was a mail survey of a single respondent (administrators or directors of nursing) in each of 197 nursing homes. Study 2 was a field study using random, proportionally stratified sampling procedure that included 195 organizations with 3,968 respondents. Analysis. In Study 1, we analyzed the data to reduce the number of scale items and establish initial reliability and validity. In Study 2, we strengthened the psychometric test using a large sample. Results. Results demonstrated validity and reliability of the participation in decision-making instrument (PDMI) while measuring participation of workers in two distinct job categories (RNs and CNAs). We established reliability at the organizational level aggregated items scores. We established validity of the multidimensional properties using convergent and discriminant validity and confirmatory factor analysis. Conclusions. Participation in decision making, when modeled as a systems-level property of organization, has multiple dimensions and is more complex than is being traditionally measured. Managers can use this model to form decision teams that maximize the depth and breadth of expertise needed and to foster connection among them. PMID:24349771

Participation in decision making as a property of complex adaptive systems: developing and testing a measure.

PubMed

Anderson, Ruth A; Plowman, Donde; Corazzini, Kirsten; Hsieh, Pi-Ching; Su, Hui Fang; Landerman, Lawrence R; McDaniel, Reuben R

2013-01-01

Objectives. To (1) describe participation in decision-making as a systems-level property of complex adaptive systems and (2) present empirical evidence of reliability and validity of a corresponding measure. Method. Study 1 was a mail survey of a single respondent (administrators or directors of nursing) in each of 197 nursing homes. Study 2 was a field study using random, proportionally stratified sampling procedure that included 195 organizations with 3,968 respondents. Analysis. In Study 1, we analyzed the data to reduce the number of scale items and establish initial reliability and validity. In Study 2, we strengthened the psychometric test using a large sample. Results. Results demonstrated validity and reliability of the participation in decision-making instrument (PDMI) while measuring participation of workers in two distinct job categories (RNs and CNAs). We established reliability at the organizational level aggregated items scores. We established validity of the multidimensional properties using convergent and discriminant validity and confirmatory factor analysis. Conclusions. Participation in decision making, when modeled as a systems-level property of organization, has multiple dimensions and is more complex than is being traditionally measured. Managers can use this model to form decision teams that maximize the depth and breadth of expertise needed and to foster connection among them.

Evaluating a multispecies adaptive management framework: Must uncertainty impede effective decision-making?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, David R.; McGowan, Conor P.; Daily, Jonathan P.; Nichols, James D.; Sweka, John A.; Lyons, James E.

2013-01-01

Application of adaptive management to complex natural resource systems requires careful evaluation to ensure that the process leads to improved decision-making. As part of that evaluation, adaptive policies can be compared with alternative nonadaptive management scenarios. Also, the value of reducing structural (ecological) uncertainty to achieving management objectives can be quantified.A multispecies adaptive management framework was recently adopted by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission for sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus, while maintaining adequate stopover habitat for migrating red knots Calidris canutus rufa, the focal shorebird species. The predictive model set encompassed the structural uncertainty in the relationships between horseshoe crab spawning, red knot weight gain and red knot vital rates. Stochastic dynamic programming was used to generate a state-dependent strategy for harvest decisions given that uncertainty. In this paper, we employed a management strategy evaluation approach to evaluate the performance of this adaptive management framework. Active adaptive management was used by including model weights as state variables in the optimization and reducing structural uncertainty by model weight updating.We found that the value of information for reducing structural uncertainty is expected to be low, because the uncertainty does not appear to impede effective management. Harvest policy responded to abundance levels of both species regardless of uncertainty in the specific relationship that generated those abundances. Thus, the expected horseshoe crab harvest and red knot abundance were similar when the population generating model was uncertain or known, and harvest policy was robust to structural uncertainty as specified.Synthesis and applications. The combination of management strategy evaluation with state-dependent strategies from stochastic dynamic programming was an informative approach to evaluate adaptive management performance and value of learning. Although natural resource decisions are characterized by uncertainty, not all uncertainty will cause decisions to be altered substantially, as we found in this case. It is important to incorporate uncertainty into the decision framing and evaluate the effect of reducing that uncertainty on achieving the desired outcomes

The Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center synthesis report 2011–15—Projects, products, and science priorities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Varela Minder, Elda; Lascurain, Aranzazu R.; McMahon, Gerard

2016-09-28

IntroductionIn 2009, the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Secretary Ken Salazar established a network of eight regional Climate Science Centers (CSCs) that, along with the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), would help define and implement the Department's climate adaptation response. The Southeast Climate Science Center (SE CSC) was established at North Carolina State University (NCSU) in Raleigh, North Carolina, in 2010, under a 5-year cooperative agreement with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), to identify and address the regional challenges presented by climate change and variability in the Southeastern United States. All eight regional CSC hosts, including NCSU, were selected through a competitive process.Since its opening, the focus of the SE CSC has been on working with partners in the identification and development of research-based information that can assist managers, including cultural and natural resource managers, in adapting to global change processes, such as climate and land use change, that operate at local to global scales and affect resources important to the DOI mission. The SE CSC was organized to accomplish three goals:Provide co-produced, researched based, actionable science that supports transparent global change adaptation decisions.Convene conversations among decision makers, scientists, and managers to identify key ecosystem adaptation decisions driven by climate and land use change, the values and objectives that will be used to make decisions, and the research-based information needed to assess adaptation options.Build the capacity of natural resource professionals, university faculty, and students to understand and frame natural resource adaptation decisions and develop and use research-based information to make adaptation decisions.This report provides an overview of the SE CSC and the projects developed by the SE CSC since its inception. An important goal of this report is to provide a framework for understanding the evolution of the SE CSC science agenda, which has evolved over the first 5 years of the Center’s operation.

Translation and cross-cultural adaptation of a family booklet on comfort care in dementia: sensitive topics revised before implementation.

PubMed

van der Steen, Jenny T; Hertogh, Cees M P M; de Graas, Tjomme; Nakanishi, Miharu; Toscani, Franco; Arcand, Marcel

2013-02-01

Families of patients with dementia may need support in difficult end-of-life decision making. Such guidance may be culturally sensitive. To support families in Canada, a booklet was developed to aid decision making on palliative care issues. For reasons of cost effectiveness and promising effects, we prepared for its implementation in Italy, the Netherlands and Japan. Local teams translated and adapted the booklet to local ethical, legal and medical standards where needed, retaining guidance on palliative care. Using qualitative content analyses, we grouped and compared adaptations to understand culturally sensitive aspects. Three themes emerged: (1) relationships among patient, physician and other professionals-the authority of the physician was more explicit in adapted versions; (2) patient rights and family position-adding detail about local regulations; and (3) typology of treatments and decisions. Considerations underlying palliative care decisions were detailed (Dutch and Italian versions), and the Japanese version frequently referred to professional and legal standards, and life-prolongation was a competing goal. Text on artificial feeding or fluids and euthanasia was revised extensively. Providing artificial feeding and fluids and discussing euthanasia may be particularly sensitive topics, and guidance on these subjects needs careful consideration of ethical aspects and possible adaptations to local standards and practice. The findings may promote cross-national debate on sensitive, core issues regarding end-of-life care in dementia.

Development of a decision aid for cardiopulmonary resuscitation and invasive mechanical ventilation in the intensive care unit employing user-centered design and a wiki platform for rapid prototyping

PubMed Central

Witteman, Holly O.; LeBlanc, Annie; Kryworuchko, Jennifer; Heyland, Daren Keith; Ebell, Mark H.; Blair, Louisa; Tapp, Diane; Dupuis, Audrey; Lavoie-Bérard, Carole-Anne; McGinn, Carrie Anna; Légaré, France; Archambault, Patrick Michel

2018-01-01

Background Upon admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), all patients should discuss their goals of care and express their wishes concerning life-sustaining interventions (e.g., cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR)). Without such discussions, interventions that prolong life at the cost of decreasing its quality may be used without appropriate guidance from patients. Objectives To adapt an existing decision aid about CPR to create a wiki-based decision aid individually adapted to each patient’s risk factors; and to document the use of a wiki platform for this purpose. Methods We conducted three weeks of ethnographic observation in our ICU to observe intensivists and patients discussing goals of care and to identify their needs regarding decision making. We interviewed intensivists individually. Then we conducted three rounds of rapid prototyping involving 15 patients and 11 health professionals. We recorded and analyzed all discussions, interviews and comments, and collected sociodemographic data. Using a wiki, a website that allows multiple users to contribute or edit content, we adapted the decision aid accordingly and added the Good Outcome Following Attempted Resuscitation (GO-FAR) prediction rule calculator. Results We added discussion of invasive mechanical ventilation. The final decision aid comprises values clarification, risks and benefits of CPR and invasive mechanical ventilation, statistics about CPR, and a synthesis section. We added the GO-FAR prediction calculator as an online adjunct to the decision aid. Although three rounds of rapid prototyping simplified the information in the decision aid, 60% (n = 3/5) of the patients involved in the last cycle still did not understand its purpose. Conclusions Wikis and user-centered design can be used to adapt decision aids to users’ needs and local contexts. Our wiki platform allows other centers to adapt our tools, reducing duplication and accelerating scale-up. Physicians need training in shared decision making skills about goals of care and in using the decision aid. A video version of the decision aid could clarify its purpose. PMID:29447297

Decision Profiles of Mexican-Descent Families.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baker, Georgianne

An exploratory study of decision-making in families of Mexican heritage was carried out in Phoenix, Arizona. A Normative model of decision rationality and measurement (Family Problem Instrument-FPI) was adapted from previous research. Tape-recorded data were provided by 27 families. Husbands and wives responded separately to family decision…

How to Represent Adaptation in e-Learning with IMS Learning Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burgos, Daniel; Tattersall, Colin; Koper, Rob

2007-01-01

Adaptation in e-learning has been an important research topic for the last few decades in computer-based education. In adaptivity the behaviour of the user triggers some actions in the system that guides the learning process. In adaptability, the user makes changes and takes decisions. Progressing from computer-based training and adaptive…

Assessing and Developing the Adaptive Functioning of Handicapped Children and Youth. Final Report [October 1984-September 1987].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bruininks, Robert H.

The project sought to clarify the nature and structure of adaptive functioning and to address methodological issues in its assessment, in order to improve placement, evaluation, and instructional decision-making related to adaptive functioning. Project components included: (1) exploration of the structure of adaptive behavior; (2) comparison of…

Science-management collaborations: Developing adaptation options for National Forests

Treesearch

Forest Service U.S. Department of Agriculture

2010-01-01

Climate is constantly changing, prompting natural and managed ecosystems to adjust. As a natural process, adaptation refers to the reactive changes that species and ecosystems make in response to environmental changes. With human intervention, adaptation refers to management actions and decisions that help ecological, social, and economic systems accommodate challenges...

Helping Students Make Decisions with the Help of Egan's Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stephens, Ginny Lee; Reynolds, JoLynne

1992-01-01

Discusses using Gerald Egan's model for creative decision making as a career counseling tool. Explains why to use this model and how it was adapted to meet career counseling issues. Describes its successful use in three case studies with a college sophomore in search of a major, a new graduate in search of a first job, and a homemaker. (Author/ABL)

Context, Participation and Discourse: The Role of the Communities of Practice Concept in Understanding Farmer Decision-Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Kane, M. P.; Paine, M. S.; King, B. J.

2008-01-01

This article contributes to the study of decision-making processes both at a farm systems level and at the level of agricultural research in partnership with commercial farms. It also highlights the way in which adoption and adaptation of innovation occurs in a socially rich context with information, group formation and connectivity converging to…

Probabilistic soft sets and dual probabilistic soft sets in decision making with positive and negative parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatimah, F.; Rosadi, D.; Hakim, R. B. F.

2018-03-01

In this paper, we motivate and introduce probabilistic soft sets and dual probabilistic soft sets for handling decision making problem in the presence of positive and negative parameters. We propose several types of algorithms related to this problem. Our procedures are flexible and adaptable. An example on real data is also given.

Assessment of adaptation measures to high-mountain risks in Switzerland under climate uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muccione, Veruska; Lontzek, Thomas; Huggel, Christian; Ott, Philipp; Salzmann, Nadine

2015-04-01

The economic evaluation of different adaptation options is important to support policy-makers that need to set priorities in the decision-making process. However, the decision-making process faces considerable uncertainties regarding current and projected climate impacts. First, physical climate and related impact systems are highly complex and not fully understood. Second, the further we look into the future, the more important the emission pathways become, with effects on the frequency and severity of climate impacts. Decision on adaptation measures taken today and in the future must be able to adequately consider the uncertainties originating from the different sources. Decisions are not taken in a vacuum but always in the context of specific social, economic, institutional and political conditions. Decision finding processes strongly depend on the socio-political system and usually have evolved over some time. Finding and taking decisions in the respective socio-political and economic context multiplies the uncertainty challenge. Our presumption is that a sound assessment of the different adaptation options in Switzerland under uncertainty necessitates formulating and solving a dynamic, stochastic optimization problem. Economic optimization models in the field of climate change are not new. Typically, such models are applied for global-scale studies but barely for local-scale problems. In this analysis, we considered the case of the Guttannen-Grimsel Valley, situated in the Swiss Bernese Alps. The alpine community has been affected by high-magnitude, high-frequency debris flows that started in 2009 and were historically unprecendented. They were related to thaw of permafrost in the rock slopes of Ritzlihorn and repeated rock fall events that accumulated at the debris fan and formed a sediment source for debris flows and were transported downvalley. An important transit road, a trans-European gas pipeline and settlements were severely affected and partly destroyed. Several adaptation measures were discussed by the responsible authorities but decision making is particularly challenging under multiple uncertainties. For this area, we developed a stochastic optimization model for concrete and real-case adaptation options and measures and use dynamic programming to explore the optimal adaptation decisions under uncertainty in face of uncertain impacts from climate change of debris flows and flooding. Even though simplification needed to be made the results produced were concrete and tangible, indicating that excavation is a preferable adaptation option based on our assumption and modeling in comparison to building a dam or relocation, which is not necessarily intuitive and adds an additional perspective to what has so far been sketched and evaluated by cantonal and communal authorities for Guttannen. Moreover, the building of an alternative cantonal road appears to be more expensive than costs incurring due to road closure.

Development and initial evaluation of a treatment decision dashboard

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background For many healthcare decisions, multiple alternatives are available with different combinations of advantages and disadvantages across several important dimensions. The complexity of current healthcare decisions thus presents a significant barrier to informed decision making, a key element of patient-centered care. Interactive decision dashboards were developed to facilitate decision making in Management, a field marked by similarly complicated choices. These dashboards utilize data visualization techniques to reduce the cognitive effort needed to evaluate decision alternatives and a non-linear flow of information that enables users to review information in a self-directed fashion. Theoretically, both of these features should facilitate informed decision making by increasing user engagement with and understanding of the decision at hand. We sought to determine if the interactive decision dashboard format can be successfully adapted to create a clinically realistic prototype patient decision aid suitable for further evaluation and refinement. Methods We created a computerized, interactive clinical decision dashboard and performed a pilot test of its clinical feasibility and acceptability using a multi-method analysis. The dashboard summarized information about the effectiveness, risks of side effects and drug-drug interactions, out-of-pocket costs, and ease of use of nine analgesic treatment options for knee osteoarthritis. Outcome evaluations included observations of how study participants utilized the dashboard, questionnaires to assess usability, acceptability, and decisional conflict, and an open-ended qualitative analysis. Results The study sample consisted of 25 volunteers - 7 men and 18 women - with an average age of 51 years. The mean time spent interacting with the dashboard was 4.6 minutes. Mean evaluation scores on scales ranging from 1 (low) to 7 (high) were: mechanical ease of use 6.1, cognitive ease of use 6.2, emotional difficulty 2.7, decision-aiding effectiveness 5.9, clarification of values 6.5, reduction in decisional uncertainty 6.1, and provision of decision-related information 6.0. Qualitative findings were similarly positive. Conclusions Interactive decision dashboards can be adapted for clinical use and have the potential to foster informed decision making. Additional research is warranted to more rigorously test the effectiveness and efficiency of patient decision dashboards for supporting informed decision making and other aspects of patient-centered care, including shared decision making. PMID:23601912

A mechanism for value-sensitive decision-making.

PubMed

Pais, Darren; Hogan, Patrick M; Schlegel, Thomas; Franks, Nigel R; Leonard, Naomi E; Marshall, James A R

2013-01-01

We present a dynamical systems analysis of a decision-making mechanism inspired by collective choice in house-hunting honeybee swarms, revealing the crucial role of cross-inhibitory 'stop-signalling' in improving the decision-making capabilities. We show that strength of cross-inhibition is a decision-parameter influencing how decisions depend both on the difference in value and on the mean value of the alternatives; this is in contrast to many previous mechanistic models of decision-making, which are typically sensitive to decision accuracy rather than the value of the option chosen. The strength of cross-inhibition determines when deadlock over similarly valued alternatives is maintained or broken, as a function of the mean value; thus, changes in cross-inhibition strength allow adaptive time-dependent decision-making strategies. Cross-inhibition also tunes the minimum difference between alternatives required for reliable discrimination, in a manner similar to Weber's law of just-noticeable difference. Finally, cross-inhibition tunes the speed-accuracy trade-off realised when differences in the values of the alternatives are sufficiently large to matter. We propose that the model, and the significant role of the values of the alternatives, may describe other decision-making systems, including intracellular regulatory circuits, and simple neural circuits, and may provide guidance in the design of decision-making algorithms for artificial systems, particularly those functioning without centralised control.

Conceptual framework of knowledge management for ethical decision-making support in neonatal intensive care.

PubMed

Frize, Monique; Yang, Lan; Walker, Robin C; O'Connor, Annette M

2005-06-01

This research is built on the belief that artificial intelligence estimations need to be integrated into clinical social context to create value for health-care decisions. In sophisticated neonatal intensive care units (NICUs), decisions to continue or discontinue aggressive treatment are an integral part of clinical practice. High-quality evidence supports clinical decision-making, and a decision-aid tool based on specific outcome information for individual NICU patients will provide significant support for parents and caregivers in making difficult "ethical" treatment decisions. In our approach, information on a newborn patient's likely outcomes is integrated with the physician's interpretation and parents' perspectives into codified knowledge. Context-sensitive content adaptation delivers personalized and customized information to a variety of users, from physicians to parents. The system provides structuralized knowledge translation and exchange between all participants in the decision, facilitating collaborative decision-making that involves parents at every stage on whether to initiate, continue, limit, or terminate intensive care for their infant.

Integrating adaptive management and ecosystem services concepts to improve natural resource management: Challenges and opportunities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca S.; Boyd, James W.; Macauley, Molly K.; Scarlett, Lynn; Shapiro, Carl D.; Williams, Byron K.

2018-05-07

Executive Summary—OverviewNatural resource managers must make decisions that affect broad-scale ecosystem processes involving large spatial areas, complex biophysical interactions, numerous competing stakeholder interests, and highly uncertain outcomes. Natural and social science information and analyses are widely recognized as important for informing effective management. Chief among the systematic approaches for improving the integration of science into natural resource management are two emergent science concepts, adaptive management and ecosystem services. Adaptive management (also referred to as “adaptive decision making”) is a deliberate process of learning by doing that focuses on reducing uncertainties about management outcomes and system responses to improve management over time. Ecosystem services is a conceptual framework that refers to the attributes and outputs of ecosystems (and their components and functions) that have value for humans.This report explores how ecosystem services can be moved from concept into practice through connection to a decision framework—adaptive management—that accounts for inherent uncertainties. Simultaneously, the report examines the value of incorporating ecosystem services framing and concepts into adaptive management efforts.Adaptive management and ecosystem services analyses have not typically been used jointly in decision making. However, as frameworks, they have a natural—but to date underexplored—affinity. Both are policy and decision oriented in that they attempt to represent the consequences of resource management choices on outcomes of interest to stakeholders. Both adaptive management and ecosystem services analysis take an empirical approach to the analysis of ecological systems. This systems orientation is a byproduct of the fact that natural resource actions affect ecosystems—and corresponding societal outcomes—often across large geographic scales. Moreover, because both frameworks focus on resource systems, both must confront the analytical challenges of systems modeling—in terms of complexity, dynamics, and uncertainty.Given this affinity, the integration of ecosystem services analysis and adaptive management poses few conceptual hurdles. In this report, we synthesize discussions from two workshops that considered ways in which adaptive management approaches and ecosystem service concepts may be complementary, such that integrating them into a common framework may lead to improved natural resource management outcomes. Although the literature on adaptive management and ecosystem services is vast and growing, the report focuses specifically on the integration of these two concepts rather than aiming to provide new definitions or an indepth review or primer of the concepts individually.Key issues considered include the bidirectional links between adaptive decision making and ecosystem services, as well as the potential benefits and inevitable challenges arising in the development and use of an integrated framework. Specifically, the workshops addressed the following questions:How can application of ecosystem service analysis within an adaptive decision process improve the outcomes of management and advance understanding of ecosystem service identification, production, and valuation?How can these concepts be integrated in concept and practice?What are the constraints and challenges to integrating adaptive management and ecosystem services?And, should the integration of these concepts be moved forward to wider application—and if so, how?

Implications of Modeling Uncertainty for Water Quality Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shabman, L.

2002-05-01

The report, National Academy of Sciences report, "Assessing the TMDL Approach to Water Quality Management" endorsed the "watershed" and "ambient water quality focused" approach" to water quality management called for in the TMDL program. The committee felt that available data and models were adequate to move such a program forward, if the EPA and all stakeholders better understood the nature of the scientific enterprise and its application to the TMDL program. Specifically, the report called for a greater acknowledgement of model prediction uncertinaity in making and implementing TMDL plans. To assure that such uncertinaity was addressed in water quality decision making the committee called for a commitment to "adaptive implementation" of water quality management plans. The committee found that the number and complexity of the interactions of multiple stressors, combined with model prediction uncertinaity means that we need to avoid the temptation to make assurances that specific actions will result in attainment of particular water quality standards. Until the work on solving a water quality problem begins, analysts and decision makers cannot be sure what the correct solutions are, or even what water quality goals a community should be seeking. In complex systems we need to act in order to learn; adaptive implementation is a concurrent process of action and learning. Learning requires (1) continued monitoring of the waterbody to determine how it responds to the actions taken and (2) carefully designed experiments in the watershed. If we do not design learning into what we attempt we are not doing adaptive implementation. Therefore, there needs to be an increased commitment to monitoring and experiments in watersheds that will lead to learning. This presentation will 1) explain the logic for adaptive implementation; 2) discuss the ways that water quality modelers could characterize and explain model uncertinaity to decision makers; 3) speculate on the implications of the adaptive implementation for setting of water quality standards, for design of watershed monitoring programs and for the regulatory rules governing the TMDL program implementation.

How can multi criteria decision analysis support value assessment of pharmaceuticals? - Findings from a systematic literature review.

PubMed

Kolasa, Katarzyna; Zah, Vladimir; Kowalczyk, Marta

2018-04-29

As budget constraints become more and more visible, there is growing recognition for greater transparency and greater stakeholders' engagement in the pharmaceuticals' pric-ing&reimbursement (P&R) decision making. New frameworks of drugs' value assessments are searched for. Among them, the multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) receives more and more attention. In 2014, ISPOR established Task Force to provide methodological recommendations for MCDA utilization in the health care decision making. Still, there is not so much knowledge about the real life experience with MCDA's adaptation to the P&R processes. Areas covered: A systematic literature review was performed to understand the rationale for MCDA adaptation, methodology used as well as its impact on P&R outcomes. Expert commentary: In total 102 hits were found through the search of databases, out of which 18 publications were selected. Although limited in scope, the review highlighted how MCDA can im-prove the decision making processes not only regarding pricing & reimbursement but also contribute to the the risk benefit assessment as well as optimization of treatment outcomes. Still none of re-viewed studies did report how MCDA results actually impacted the real life settings.

An Integrated Framework to Analyze Local Decision Making and Adaptation to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Regions in Santos-Brazil, Broward County-USA and Selsey-UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marengo, J. A.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Pelling, M.; Reynolds, C. J.; Merril, S. B.; Nunes, L. H.; Paterson, S.; Gray, A.; Lockman, J. T.; Kartez, J.; Moreira, F.; Greco, R.; Harari, J.; Souza, C. G.; Alves, L. M.; Hosokawa, E.; Tabuchi, E.

2016-12-01

One of the clear signals of present climate change is sea level rise (SLR). There is mounting evidence of other changes, including warmer temperatures in many localities, and changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme meteorological events, including wind, rain, and waves. A rising sea level combined with these factors and tides is expected to affect coastal communities through a number of processes, including increased risk of flooding and contamination of water sources. An international collaboration between Brazil, the United Kingdom, and the United States was designed to evaluate local decision making processes and to open convening space for local urban managers to reflect on possible actions toward adaption to SLR and the constraints imposed by framing administrative and institutional structures. The overall goal of the project is to help coastal communities better understand factors that facilitate or hinder their intrinsic, local decision-making processes related to planning for adaptation to risk. The project carried out these tests in 2014 and 2015 in one coastal city in each partnering nation. The framework was designed by an interdisciplinary team that incorporated social and natural scientists from these three nations, and which included local government officials. To support the overall goal, this paper 1) discusses some aspects of adaptive capacity and participant survey research conducted through the project, 2) presents technical modelling results for adaptation options that may reduce the potential damages of SLR and storm surge in each location, and 3) identifies project design considerations for similar transnational adaptation projects.

[The adaptation and validation to Spanish of the questionnaire Aid to Capacity Evaluation (ACE), for the assessment of the ability of patients in medical decision-making].

PubMed

Moraleda Barba, Sandra; Ballesta Rodríguez, M Isabel; Delgado Quero, Antonio Luis; Lietor Villajos, Norberto; Moreno Corredor, Andrés; Delgado Rodríguez, Miguel

2015-03-01

To adapt and validate the Spanish version of the Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale, designed to assess the capacity of the adult in medical decision-making, both in diagnosis and treatment processes. Observational study of prospective validation. Primary and hospital care of the basic health area of Jaen. One hundred twenty-nine patients. Questionnaire which included sociodemographic variables, concerning the decision (scope, type of decision, the need for written informed consent), assessment of the capacity to the Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale and other related comorbidity (hearing loss, alcoholism, cognitive level variables with the Mini-Mental State Examination and depression by Goldberg or Yesavage test). The tool is considered viable. The conclusions of the expert panel were favorable. The result of the criteria' validity, comparing the results with the assessment of the experts (forensic and psychiatrist) was very satisfying (P<.001). The intra-observer reliability was low (kappa=0,135). Interobserver reliability remained high (kappa=0.74). The internal consistency was awarded an alpha of Cronbach's 0,645 for the reduced model of 6 items. The Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale was adapted to Spanish, demonstrating adequate internal consistency and construct validity. Its use in clinical practice could contribute to the identification of patients unable to make a particular medical decision and/or to give an informed consent. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Neural systems analysis of decision making during goal-directed navigation.

PubMed

Penner, Marsha R; Mizumori, Sheri J Y

2012-01-01

The ability to make adaptive decisions during goal-directed navigation is a fundamental and highly evolved behavior that requires continual coordination of perceptions, learning and memory processes, and the planning of behaviors. Here, a neurobiological account for such coordination is provided by integrating current literatures on spatial context analysis and decision-making. This integration includes discussions of our current understanding of the role of the hippocampal system in experience-dependent navigation, how hippocampal information comes to impact midbrain and striatal decision making systems, and finally the role of the striatum in the implementation of behaviors based on recent decisions. These discussions extend across cellular to neural systems levels of analysis. Not only are key findings described, but also fundamental organizing principles within and across neural systems, as well as between neural systems functions and behavior, are emphasized. It is suggested that studying decision making during goal-directed navigation is a powerful model for studying interactive brain systems and their mediation of complex behaviors. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Predictors of Shared Decision Making and Level of Agreement between Consumers and Providers in Psychiatric Care

PubMed Central

Fukui, Sadaaki; Salyers, Michelle P.; Matthias, Marianne S.; Collins, Linda; Thompson, John; Coffman, Melinda; Torrey, William C.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to quantitatively examine elements of shared decision making (SDM), and to establish empirical evidence for factors correlated with SDM and the level of agreement between consumer and provider in psychiatric care. Transcripts containing 128 audio-recorded medication check-up visits with eight providers at three community mental health centers were rated using the Shared Decision Making scale, adapted from Braddock’s Informed Decision Making Scale (Braddock et al., 1997; 1999; 2008). Multilevel regression analyses revealed that greater consumer activity in the session and greater decision complexity significantly predicted the SDM score. The best predictor of agreement between consumer and provider was “exploration of consumer preference,” with a four-fold increase in full agreement when consumer preferences were discussed more completely. Enhancing active consumer participation, particularly by incorporating consumer preferences in the decision making process appears to be an important factor in SDM. PMID:23299226

Water security and adaptive capacity for climate: Learning lessons from drought decision making in U.S. urban contexts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dilling, L.

2017-12-01

Cities in the U.S. have been adapting to drought for many years, implementing a combination of mechanisms to cope with climate and water variability and increasing population. Cities are also at the frontline for making decisions about adaptation to climate change. Are decisions made to cope with drought helping cities to build the adaptive capacity necessary for adapting to climate change? We examined this question by conducting interviews with practitioners involved in drought management at urban water utilities across the U.S. to understand responses to drought and perceptions of their effectiveness. We then drew on established criteria for evaluating successful adaptation (effectiveness, efficiency, equity and legitimacy) to analyze whether these drought policies would build adaptive capacity for climate change. We find that drought responses overall are seen as successful in helping cities balance the demand and supply of water, and maintain system reliability as well as improve water awareness, but can have unintended consequences and shift vulnerability in unexpected ways. For example, even though cities are successful at reducing water use when needed, some are concerned with the increasing difficulty of finding new water savings during a future drought. Secondly, water conservation can affect revenue, impacting the ability of cities to plan for maintenance and capital costs. Third, the social acceptability of policy options is critical and depends on perceived fairness and other factors. Water managers are also challenged by "no fail" expectations that make it difficult to experiment. Moreover some measures can shift vulnerability from one risk, such as running out of water, to another risk, such as water becoming too expensive, lowering quality, or not meeting other key infrastructure design requirements. These findings demonstrate that adaptation measures that seek to reduce exposure to water scarcity can impact aspects of adaptive capacity, and shift vulnerability, suggesting that great care must be taken to analyze not only the technical feasibility of proposed adaptation solutions but their political and social dimensions as well.

[Neural Mechanisms That Facilitate Adaptive Behavior Based on Acquired Stimulus-Outcome Information].

PubMed

Ogawa, Masaaki

2017-11-01

In response to changing internal and external situations, we always need to adapt our behavior based on previous experiences, particularly, acquired stimulus-outcome information. The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), a prefrontal cortical region, is critical for this type of decision-making. The current understanding of the fundamental functions of the OFC has been reviewed by introducing, as an example, how the OFC contributes to the processing of uncertain rewards. Furthermore, the importance of revealing context and temporally specific causal roles of neural circuits including the OFC in decision-making, as well as the techniques to achieve the goal, have been discussed.

Functional Assessment of Genetic Variants with Outcomes Adapted to Clinical Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Thouvenot, Pierre; Ben Yamin, Barbara; Fourrière, Lou; Lescure, Aurianne; Boudier, Thomas; Del Nery, Elaine; Chauchereau, Anne; Goldgar, David E.; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Nicolas, Alain; Millot, Gaël A.

2016-01-01

Understanding the medical effect of an ever-growing number of human variants detected is a long term challenge in genetic counseling. Functional assays, based on in vitro or in vivo evaluations of the variant effects, provide essential information, but they require robust statistical validation, as well as adapted outputs, to be implemented in the clinical decision-making process. Here, we assessed 25 pathogenic and 15 neutral missense variants of the BRCA1 breast/ovarian cancer susceptibility gene in four BRCA1 functional assays. Next, we developed a novel approach that refines the variant ranking in these functional assays. Lastly, we developed a computational system that provides a probabilistic classification of variants, adapted to clinical interpretation. Using this system, the best functional assay exhibits a variant classification accuracy estimated at 93%. Additional theoretical simulations highlight the benefit of this ready-to-use system in the classification of variants after functional assessment, which should facilitate the consideration of functional evidences in the decision-making process after genetic testing. Finally, we demonstrate the versatility of the system with the classification of siRNAs tested for human cell growth inhibition in high throughput screening. PMID:27272900

Translating climate data for business decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinberg, N.

2015-12-01

Businesses are bound to play an integral role in global and local climate change adaptation efforts, and integrating climate science into business decision-making can help protect companies' bottom-line and the communities which they depend upon. Yet many companies do not have good means to measure and manage climate risks. There are inherent limiting factors to incorporating climate data into existing operations and sourcing strategies. Spatial and temporal incongruities between climate and business models can make integration cumbersome. Even when such incongruities are resolved, raw climate data must undergo multiple transformations until the data is deemed actionable or otherwise translatable in dollar terms. However, the predictability of future impacts is advancing along with the use of second-order variables such as Cooling Degree Days and Water-Limited Crop productivity, helping business managers make better decisions about future energy and water demand requirements under the prospect of rising temperatures and more variable rainfall. This presentation will discuss the methods and opportunities for transforming raw climate data into business metrics. Results for the 2015 Corporate Adaptation Survey, led by Four Twenty Seven and in partnership with Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, will also be presented to illustrate existing gaps between climate science and its application in the business context.

Coastal Adaptation Planning for Sea Level Rise and Extremes: A Global Model for Adaptation Decision-making at the Local Level Given Uncertain Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, D.

2014-12-01

Understanding the potential economic and physical impacts of climate change on coastal resources involves evaluating a number of distinct adaptive responses. This paper presents a tool for such analysis, a spatially-disaggregated optimization model for adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge, the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM). This decision-making framework fills a gap between very detailed studies of specific locations and overly aggregate global analyses. While CIAM is global in scope, the optimal adaptation strategy is determined at the local level, evaluating over 12,000 coastal segments as described in the DIVA database (Vafeidis et al. 2006). The decision to pursue a given adaptation measure depends on local socioeconomic factors like income, population, and land values and how they develop over time, relative to the magnitude of potential coastal impacts, based on geophysical attributes like inundation zones and storm surge. For example, the model's decision to protect or retreat considers the costs of constructing and maintaining coastal defenses versus those of relocating people and capital to minimize damages from land inundation and coastal storms. Uncertain storm surge events are modeled with a generalized extreme value distribution calibrated to data on local surge extremes. Adaptation is optimized for the near-term outlook, in an "act then learn then act" framework that is repeated over the model time horizon. This framework allows the adaptation strategy to be flexibly updated, reflecting the process of iterative risk management. CIAM provides new estimates of the economic costs of SLR; moreover, these detailed results can be compactly represented in a set of adaptation and damage functions for use in integrated assessment models. Alongside the optimal result, CIAM evaluates suboptimal cases and finds that global costs could increase by an order of magnitude, illustrating the importance of adaptive capacity and coastal policy.

Do Bayesian adaptive trials offer advantages for comparative effectiveness research? Protocol for the RE-ADAPT study

PubMed Central

Luce, Bryan R; Broglio, Kristine R; Ishak, K Jack; Mullins, C Daniel; Vanness, David J; Fleurence, Rachael; Saunders, Elijah; Davis, Barry R

2013-01-01

Background Randomized clinical trials, particularly for comparative effectiveness research (CER), are frequently criticized for being overly restrictive or untimely for health-care decision making. Purpose Our prospectively designed REsearch in ADAptive methods for Pragmatic Trials (RE-ADAPT) study is a ‘proof of concept’ to stimulate investment in Bayesian adaptive designs for future CER trials. Methods We will assess whether Bayesian adaptive designs offer potential efficiencies in CER by simulating a re-execution of the Antihypertensive and Lipid Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT) study using actual data from ALLHAT. Results We prospectively define seven alternate designs consisting of various combinations of arm dropping, adaptive randomization, and early stopping and describe how these designs will be compared to the original ALLHAT design. We identify the one particular design that would have been executed, which incorporates early stopping and information-based adaptive randomization. Limitations While the simulation realistically emulates patient enrollment, interim analyses, and adaptive changes to design, it cannot incorporate key features like the involvement of data monitoring committee in making decisions about adaptive changes. Conclusion This article describes our analytic approach for RE-ADAPT. The next stage of the project is to conduct the re-execution analyses using the seven prespecified designs and the original ALLHAT data. PMID:23983160

When ranchers don't know what to do: Care and rangeland management decision-making under uncertainity

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This presentation asks: how do ranchers know what to do when they are faced with a decision under high levels of complexity and uncertainty? In the semi-arid Western Great Plains of North America, rancher decisions have implications for rangeland ecosystems and for livelihoods. Adaptive management r...

Follow the heart or the head? The interactive influence model of emotion and cognition

PubMed Central

Luo, Jiayi; Yu, Rongjun

2015-01-01

The experience of emotion has a powerful influence on daily-life decision making. Following Plato’s description of emotion and reason as two horses pulling us in opposite directions, modern dual-system models of decision making endorse the antagonism between reason and emotion. Decision making is perceived as the competition between an emotion system that is automatic but prone to error and a reason system that is slow but rational. The reason system (in “the head”) reins in our impulses (from “the heart”) and overrides our snap judgments. However, from Darwin’s evolutionary perspective, emotion is adaptive, guiding us to make sound decisions in uncertainty. Here, drawing findings from behavioral economics and neuroeconomics, we provide a new model, labeled “The interactive influence model of emotion and cognition,” to elaborate the relationship of emotion and reason in decision making. Specifically, in our model, we identify factors that determine when emotions override reason and delineate the type of contexts in which emotions help or hurt decision making. We then illustrate how cognition modulates emotion and how they cooperate to affect decision making. PMID:25999889

Neural and neurochemical basis of reinforcement-guided decision making.

PubMed

Khani, Abbas; Rainer, Gregor

2016-08-01

Decision making is an adaptive behavior that takes into account several internal and external input variables and leads to the choice of a course of action over other available and often competing alternatives. While it has been studied in diverse fields ranging from mathematics, economics, ecology, and ethology to psychology and neuroscience, recent cross talk among perspectives from different fields has yielded novel descriptions of decision processes. Reinforcement-guided decision making models are based on economic and reinforcement learning theories, and their focus is on the maximization of acquired benefit over a defined period of time. Studies based on reinforcement-guided decision making have implicated a large network of neural circuits across the brain. This network includes a wide range of cortical (e.g., orbitofrontal cortex and anterior cingulate cortex) and subcortical (e.g., nucleus accumbens and subthalamic nucleus) brain areas and uses several neurotransmitter systems (e.g., dopaminergic and serotonergic systems) to communicate and process decision-related information. This review discusses distinct as well as overlapping contributions of these networks and neurotransmitter systems to the processing of decision making. We end the review by touching on neural circuitry and neuromodulatory regulation of exploratory decision making. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Career Decision Making: The Limits of Rationality and the Abundance of Non-Conscious Processes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krieshok, Thomas S.; Black, Michael D.; McKay, Robyn A.

2009-01-01

The terms of work have changed, with multiple transitions now characterizing the arc of a typical career. This article examines an ongoing shift in the area of vocational decision making, as it moves from a place where "it's all about the match" to one closer to "it's all about adapting to change". We review literatures on judgment and decision…

Using Data to Understand How to Better Design Adaptive Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Min; Kang, Jina; Zou, Wenting; Lee, Hyeyeon; Pan, Zilong; Corliss, Stephanie

2017-01-01

There is much enthusiasm in higher education about the benefits of adaptive learning and using big data to investigate learning processes to make data-informed educational decisions. The benefits of adaptive learning to achieve personalized learning are obvious. Yet, there lacks evidence-based research to understand how data such as user behavior…

Brief Report: Risk-Aversion and Rationality in Autism Spectrum Disorders.

PubMed

Gosling, Corentin J; Moutier, Sylvain

2018-05-30

Risk-aversion and rationality have both been highlighted as core features of decision making in individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD). This study tested whether risk-aversion is related to rational decision-making in ASD individuals. ASD and matched control adults completed a decision-making task that discriminated between the use of risk-averse and rational strategies. Results showed that overall, ASD participants were more risk-averse than control participants. Specifically, both groups made similar choices when risk-aversion was the less rational strategy but ASD participants chose more rational options than control participants when risk-aversion was the most rational strategy. This study confirmed that risk-aversion is a core feature of ASD and revealed that ASD individuals can switch their decision-making strategy adaptively to avoid negative consequences.

ANFIS multi criteria decision making for overseas construction projects: a methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utama, W. P.; Chan, A. P. C.; Zulherman; Zahoor, H.; Gao, R.; Jumas, D. Y.

2018-02-01

A critical part when a company targeting a foreign market is how to make a better decision in connection with potential project selection. Since different attributes of information are often incomplete, imprecise and ill-defined in overseas projects selection, the process of decision making by relying on the experiences and intuition is a risky attitude. This paper aims to demonstrate a decision support method in deciding overseas construction projects (OCPs). An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), the amalgamation of Neural Network and Fuzzy Theory, was used as decision support tool to decide to go or not go on OCPs. Root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of correlation (R) were employed to identify the ANFIS system indicating an optimum and efficient result. The optimum result was obtained from ANFIS network with two input membership functions, Gaussian membership function (gaussmf) and hybrid optimization method. The result shows that ANFIS may help the decision-making process for go/not go decision in OCPs.

Health decision-making preferences among African American men recruited from urban barbershops.

PubMed

Hart, Alton; Smith, Wally R; Tademy, Raymond H; McClish, Donna K; McCreary, Micah

2009-07-01

To examine general health decision-making roles among African American men ages 40 to 70 recruited in barbershops in the Richmond, Virginia, metropolitan area. We adapted the 1-item Control Preference scale to study the associations between health decision-making role preferences and demographic variables. Forty African-American men were recruited from barbershops to complete a self-administered survey. After performing descriptive statistics, we dichotomized our outcome into active vs nonactive (collaborative or passive) decision makers. Data were then analyzed using chi2, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney rank sum, and multiple logistic regression. Fifteen subjects responded that they engaged in active decision making, 20 in collaborative, and 5 in passive decision making. Almost all (86.7%) active decision makers were home owners, vs 41.7% of nonactive decision makers. Among active decision makers, 46.7% had incomes of more than $70000, vs 12.5% of nonactive decision makers. The active group reported health status that was good to excellent, while 20.8% of those in the nonactive group reported poor/fair health. African American male barbershop clients preferred an active or collaborative health decision-making role with their physician, rather than a passive role. The relationship among home ownership, income, and decision style may best be understood by considering the historical and cultural influences on gender role socialization among African American males. More comprehensive assessment of decision styles is necessary to better understand health decision making among African American male patients.

Climate change/variability science and adaptive strategies for state and regional transportation decision making.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-04-01

The objective of this study was to generate a baseline understanding of current policy responses to climate : change/variability at the state and regional transportation-planning and -decision levels. Specifically, : researchers were interested in th...

Evidence for the speed-value trade-off: human and monkey decision making is magnitude sensitive.

PubMed

Pirrone, Angelo; Azab, Habiba; Hayden, Benjamin Y; Stafford, Tom; Marshall, James A R

2018-04-01

Complex natural systems from brains to bee swarms have evolved to make adaptive multifactorial decisions. Recent theoretical and empirical work suggests that many evolved systems may take advantage of common motifs across multiple domains. We are particularly interested in value sensitivity (i.e., sensitivity to the magnitude or intensity of the stimuli or reward under consideration) as a mechanism to resolve deadlocks adaptively. This mechanism favours long-term reward maximization over accuracy in a simple manner, because it avoids costly delays associated with ambivalence between similar options; speed-value trade-offs have been proposed to be evolutionarily advantageous for many kinds of decision. A key prediction of the value-sensitivity hypothesis is that choices between equally-valued options will proceed faster when the options have a high value than when they have a low value. However, value-sensitivity is not part of idealised choice models such as diffusion to bound. Here we examine two different choice behaviours in two different species, perceptual decisions in humans and economic choices in rhesus monkeys, to test this hypothesis. We observe the same value sensitivity in both human perceptual decisions and monkey value-based decisions. These results endorse the idea that neural decision systems make use of the same basic principle of value-sensitivity in order to resolve costly deadlocks and thus improve long-term reward intake.

Evidence for the speed-value trade-off: human and monkey decision making is magnitude sensitive

PubMed Central

Pirrone, Angelo; Azab, Habiba; Hayden, Benjamin Y.; Stafford, Tom; Marshall, James A. R.

2017-01-01

Complex natural systems from brains to bee swarms have evolved to make adaptive multifactorial decisions. Recent theoretical and empirical work suggests that many evolved systems may take advantage of common motifs across multiple domains. We are particularly interested in value sensitivity (i.e., sensitivity to the magnitude or intensity of the stimuli or reward under consideration) as a mechanism to resolve deadlocks adaptively. This mechanism favours long-term reward maximization over accuracy in a simple manner, because it avoids costly delays associated with ambivalence between similar options; speed-value trade-offs have been proposed to be evolutionarily advantageous for many kinds of decision. A key prediction of the value-sensitivity hypothesis is that choices between equally-valued options will proceed faster when the options have a high value than when they have a low value. However, value-sensitivity is not part of idealised choice models such as diffusion to bound. Here we examine two different choice behaviours in two different species, perceptual decisions in humans and economic choices in rhesus monkeys, to test this hypothesis. We observe the same value sensitivity in both human perceptual decisions and monkey value-based decisions. These results endorse the idea that neural decision systems make use of the same basic principle of value-sensitivity in order to resolve costly deadlocks and thus improve long-term reward intake. PMID:29682592

The role of noise in self-organized decision making by the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum.

PubMed

Meyer, Bernd; Ansorge, Cedrick; Nakagaki, Toshiyuki

2017-01-01

Self-organized mechanisms are frequently encountered in nature and known to achieve flexible, adaptive control and decision-making. Noise plays a crucial role in such systems: It can enable a self-organized system to reliably adapt to short-term changes in the environment while maintaining a generally stable behavior. This is fundamental in biological systems because they must strike a delicate balance between stable and flexible behavior. In the present paper we analyse the role of noise in the decision-making of the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum, an important model species for the investigation of computational abilities in simple organisms. We propose a simple biological experiment to investigate the reaction of P. polycephalum to time-variant risk factors and present a stochastic extension of an established mathematical model for P. polycephalum to analyze this experiment. It predicts that-due to the mechanism of stochastic resonance-noise can enable P. polycephalum to correctly assess time-variant risk factors, while the corresponding noise-free system fails to do so. Beyond the study of P. polycephalum we demonstrate that the influence of noise on self-organized decision-making is not tied to a specific organism. Rather it is a general property of the underlying process dynamics, which appears to be universal across a wide range of systems. Our study thus provides further evidence that stochastic resonance is a fundamental component of the decision-making in self-organized macroscopic and microscopic groups and organisms.

The role of noise in self-organized decision making by the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum

PubMed Central

Ansorge, Cedrick; Nakagaki, Toshiyuki

2017-01-01

Self-organized mechanisms are frequently encountered in nature and known to achieve flexible, adaptive control and decision-making. Noise plays a crucial role in such systems: It can enable a self-organized system to reliably adapt to short-term changes in the environment while maintaining a generally stable behavior. This is fundamental in biological systems because they must strike a delicate balance between stable and flexible behavior. In the present paper we analyse the role of noise in the decision-making of the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum, an important model species for the investigation of computational abilities in simple organisms. We propose a simple biological experiment to investigate the reaction of P. polycephalum to time-variant risk factors and present a stochastic extension of an established mathematical model for P. polycephalum to analyze this experiment. It predicts that—due to the mechanism of stochastic resonance—noise can enable P. polycephalum to correctly assess time-variant risk factors, while the corresponding noise-free system fails to do so. Beyond the study of P. polycephalum we demonstrate that the influence of noise on self-organized decision-making is not tied to a specific organism. Rather it is a general property of the underlying process dynamics, which appears to be universal across a wide range of systems. Our study thus provides further evidence that stochastic resonance is a fundamental component of the decision-making in self-organized macroscopic and microscopic groups and organisms. PMID:28355213

Effort-Based Decision Making: A Novel Approach for Assessing Motivation in Schizophrenia.

PubMed

Green, Michael F; Horan, William P; Barch, Deanna M; Gold, James M

2015-09-01

Because negative symptoms, including motivational deficits, are a critical unmet need in schizophrenia, there are many ongoing efforts to develop new pharmacological and psychosocial interventions for these impairments. A common challenge of these studies involves how to evaluate and select optimal endpoints. Currently, all studies of negative symptoms in schizophrenia depend on ratings from clinician-conducted interviews. Effort-based decision-making tasks may provide a more objective, and perhaps more sensitive, endpoint for trials of motivational negative symptoms. These tasks assess how much effort a person is willing to exert for a given level of reward. This area has been well-studied with animal models of effort and motivation, and effort-based decision-making tasks have been adapted for use in humans. Very recently, several studies have examined physical and cognitive types of effort-based decision-making tasks in cross-sectional studies of schizophrenia, providing evidence for effort-related impairment in this illness. This article covers the theoretical background on effort-based decision-making tasks to provide a context for the subsequent articles in this theme section. In addition, we review the existing literature of studies using these tasks in schizophrenia, consider some practical challenges in adapting them for use in clinical trials in schizophrenia, and discuss interpretive challenges that are central to these types of tasks. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Individual differences in intrinsic brain connectivity predict decision strategy.

PubMed

Barnes, Kelly Anne; Anderson, Kevin M; Plitt, Mark; Martin, Alex

2014-10-15

When humans are provided with ample time to make a decision, individual differences in strategy emerge. Using an adaptation of a well-studied decision making paradigm, motion direction discrimination, we probed the neural basis of individual differences in strategy. We tested whether strategies emerged from moment-to-moment reconfiguration of functional brain networks involved in decision making with task-evoked functional MRI (fMRI) and whether intrinsic properties of functional brain networks, measured at rest with functional connectivity MRI (fcMRI), were associated with strategy use. We found that human participants reliably selected one of two strategies across 2 days of task performance, either continuously accumulating evidence or waiting for task difficulty to decrease. Individual differences in decision strategy were predicted both by the degree of task-evoked activation of decision-related brain regions and by the strength of pretask correlated spontaneous brain activity. These results suggest that spontaneous brain activity constrains strategy selection on perceptual decisions.

How Reasoning, Judgment, and Decision Making are Colored by Gist-based Intuition: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory Approach

PubMed Central

Corbin, Jonathan C.; Reyna, Valerie F.; Weldon, Rebecca B.; Brainerd, Charles J.

2015-01-01

Fuzzy-trace theory distinguishes verbatim (literal, exact) from gist (meaningful) representations, predicting that reliance on gist increases with experience and expertise. Thus, many judgment-and-decision-making biases increase with development, such that cognition is colored by context in ways that violate logical coherence and probability theories. Nevertheless, this increase in gist-based intuition is adaptive: Gist is stable, less sensitive to interference, and easier to manipulate. Moreover, gist captures the functionally significant essence of information, supporting healthier and more robust decision processes. We describe how fuzzy-trace theory accounts for judgment-and-decision making phenomena, predicting the paradoxical arc of these processes with the development of experience and expertise. We present data linking gist memory processes to gist processing in decision making and provide illustrations of gist reliance in medicine, public health, and intelligence analysis. PMID:26664820

How Reasoning, Judgment, and Decision Making are Colored by Gist-based Intuition: A Fuzzy-Trace Theory Approach.

PubMed

Corbin, Jonathan C; Reyna, Valerie F; Weldon, Rebecca B; Brainerd, Charles J

2015-12-01

Fuzzy-trace theory distinguishes verbatim (literal, exact) from gist (meaningful) representations, predicting that reliance on gist increases with experience and expertise. Thus, many judgment-and-decision-making biases increase with development, such that cognition is colored by context in ways that violate logical coherence and probability theories. Nevertheless, this increase in gist-based intuition is adaptive: Gist is stable, less sensitive to interference, and easier to manipulate. Moreover, gist captures the functionally significant essence of information, supporting healthier and more robust decision processes. We describe how fuzzy-trace theory accounts for judgment-and-decision making phenomena, predicting the paradoxical arc of these processes with the development of experience and expertise. We present data linking gist memory processes to gist processing in decision making and provide illustrations of gist reliance in medicine, public health, and intelligence analysis.

Food choice decision-making by women with gestational diabetes.

PubMed

Hui, Amy Leung; Sevenhuysen, Gustaaf; Harvey, Dexter; Salamon, Elizabeth

2014-02-01

To enhance the dietary education presented to women with gestational diabetes (GDM) by exploring the reasons and experiences that women with GDM reported in making their food-choice decisions after receipt of dietary education from a healthcare professional. Food Choice Map (FCM) semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with 30 women with GDM living in the Winnipeg area during their pregnancies. Verbatim transcripts were generated from the interviews. A constant comparative method was used to generate common themes to answer research inquiries. Personal food preferences, hunger and cravings were the main factors affecting food choice decision-making in women with GDM. Although the information from healthcare professionals was 1 factor that affected food choice decision-making for most of the participants, more than half of the women, including all the women who were on insulin, reported difficulties in quick adaptation to dietary management in a limited time period. Information from other sources such as family members, friends, and internet were used to cope with the adaptation. These difficulties led to a sense of decreased control of GDM and were accompanied by frustration, especially for women taking insulin. Food choice decision-making varied for this group of women with GDM. Knowledge and information aided in making healthy food choices and in portion control. However, balancing individual needs and blood glucose control in a short time period was felt to be difficult and created frustration. The findings suggested that dietary consultation needs to be personalized and to be time sensitive to promote confidence in self-control. Copyright © 2014 Canadian Diabetes Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Behavioral Economics: A New Lens for Understanding Genomic Decision Making.

PubMed

Moore, Scott Emory; Ulbrich, Holley H; Hepburn, Kenneth; Holaday, Bonnie; Mayo, Rachel; Sharp, Julia; Pruitt, Rosanne H

2018-05-01

This article seeks to take the next step in examining the insights that nurses and other healthcare providers can derive from applying behavioral economic concepts to support genomic decision making. As genomic science continues to permeate clinical practice, nurses must continue to adapt practice to meet new challenges. Decisions associated with genomics are often not simple and dichotomous in nature. They can be complex and challenging for all involved. This article offers an introduction to behavioral economics as a possible tool to help support patients', families', and caregivers' decision making related to genomics. Using current writings from nursing, ethics, behavioral economic, and other healthcare scholars, we review key concepts of behavioral economics and discuss their relevance to supporting genomic decision making. Behavioral economic concepts-particularly relativity, deliberation, and choice architecture-are specifically examined as new ways to view the complexities of genomic decision making. Each concept is explored through patient decision making and clinical practice examples. This article also discusses next steps and practice implications for further development of the behavioral economic lens in nursing. Behavioral economics provides valuable insight into the unique nature of genetic decision-making practices. Nurses are often a source of information and support for patients during clinical decision making. This article seeks to offer behavioral economic concepts as a framework for understanding and examining the unique nature of genomic decision making. As genetic and genomic testing become more common in practice, it will continue to grow in importance for nurses to be able to support the autonomous decision making of patients, their families, and caregivers. © 2018 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Real-time artificial intelligence issues in the development of the adaptive tactical navigator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Peter E.; Glasson, Douglas P.; Pomarede, Jean-Michel L.; Acharya, Narayan A.

1987-01-01

Adaptive Tactical Navigation (ATN) is a laboratory prototype of a knowledge based system to provide navigation system management and decision aiding in the next generation of tactical aircraft. ATN's purpose is to manage a set of multimode navigation equipment, dynamically selecting the best equipment to use in accordance with mission goals and phase, threat environment, equipment malfunction status, and battle damage. ATN encompasses functions as diverse as sensor data interpretation, diagnosis, and planning. Real time issues that were identified in ATN and the approaches used to address them are addressed. Functional requirements and a global architecture for the ATN system are described. Decision making with time constraints are discussed. Two subproblems are identified; making decisions with incomplete information and with limited resources. Approaches used in ATN to address real time performance are described and simulation results are discussed.

Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

2014-05-01

There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from basic assumptions in the economic analysis and the hydrological model, but also from the projection of future societies to local climate change impacts and suitable adaptation options. This presents a challenge to decision makers when trying to identify robust measures. We present an integrated uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver of risk changes over time. The overall uncertainty is then attributed to six bulk processes: climate change impact, urban rainfall-runoff processes, stage-depth functions, unit cost of repair, cost of adaptation measures, and discount rate. We apply the approach on an urban hydrological catchment in Odense, Denmark, and find that the uncertainty on the climate change impact appears to have the least influence on the net present value of the studied adaptation measures-. This does not imply that the climate change impact is not important, but that the uncertainties are not dominating when deciding on action or in-action. We then consider the uncertainty related to choosing between adaptation options given that a decision of action has been taken. In this case the major part of the uncertainty on the estimated net present values is identical for all adaptation options and will therefore not affect a comparison between adaptation measures. This makes the chose among the options easier. Furthermore, the explicit attribution of uncertainty also enables a reduction of the overall uncertainty by identifying the processes which contributes the most. This knowledge can then be used to further reduce the uncertainty related to decision making, as a substantial part of the remaining uncertainty is epistemic.

Career Adaptability in Childhood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartung, Paul J.; Porfeli, Erik J.; Vondracek, Fred W.

2008-01-01

Childhood marks the dawn of vocational development, involving developmental tasks, transitions, and change. Children must acquire the rudiments of career adaptability to envision a future, make educational and vocational decisions, explore self and occupations, and problem solve. The authors situate child vocational development within human life…

Development and Standardization of the Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale: Application of Item Response Theory to the Assessment of Adaptive Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tassé, Marc J.; Schalock, Robert L.; Thissen, David; Balboni, Giulia; Bersani, Henry, Jr.; Borthwick-Duffy, Sharon A.; Spreat, Scott; Widaman, Keith F.; Zhang, Dalun; Navas, Patricia

2016-01-01

The Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale (DABS) was developed using item response theory (IRT) methods and was constructed to provide the most precise and valid adaptive behavior information at or near the cutoff point of making a decision regarding a diagnosis of intellectual disability. The DABS initial item pool consisted of 260 items. Using IRT…

Frontopolar cortex and decision-making efficiency: comparing brain activity of experts with different professional background during an exploration-exploitation task.

PubMed

Laureiro-Martínez, Daniella; Canessa, Nicola; Brusoni, Stefano; Zollo, Maurizio; Hare, Todd; Alemanno, Federica; Cappa, Stefano F

2013-01-01

An optimal balance between efficient exploitation of available resources and creative exploration of alternatives is critical for adaptation and survival. Previous studies associated these behavioral drives with, respectively, the dopaminergic mesocorticolimbic system and frontopolar-intraparietal networks. We study the activation of these systems in two age and gender-matched groups of experienced decision-makers differing in prior professional background, with the aim to understand the neural bases of individual differences in decision-making efficiency (performance divided by response time). We compare brain activity of entrepreneurs (who currently manage the organization they founded based on their venture idea) and managers (who are constantly involved in making strategic decisions but have no venture experience) engaged in a gambling-task assessing exploitative vs. explorative decision-making. Compared with managers, entrepreneurs showed higher decision-making efficiency, and a stronger activation in regions of frontopolar cortex (FPC) previously associated with explorative choice. Moreover, activity across a network of regions previously linked to explore/exploit tradeoffs explained individual differences in choice efficiency. These results suggest new avenues for the study of individual differences in the neural antecedents of efficient decision-making.

Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making.

PubMed

Kenrick, Douglas T; Griskevicius, Vladas; Sundie, Jill M; Li, Norman P; Li, Yexin Jessica; Neuberg, Steven L

2009-10-01

What is a "rational" decision? Economists traditionally viewed rationality as maximizing expected satisfaction. This view has been useful in modeling basic microeconomic concepts, but falls short in accounting for many everyday human decisions. It leaves unanswered why some things reliably make people more satisfied than others, and why people frequently act to make others happy at a cost to themselves. Drawing on an evolutionary perspective, we propose that people make decisions according to a set of principles that may not appear to make sense at the superficial level, but that demonstrate rationality at a deeper evolutionary level. By this, we mean that people use adaptive domain-specific decision-rules that, on average, would have resulted in fitness benefits. Using this framework, we re-examine several economic principles. We suggest that traditional psychological functions governing risk aversion, discounting of future benefits, and budget allocations to multiple goods, for example, vary in predictable ways as a function of the underlying motive of the decision-maker and individual differences linked to evolved life-history strategies. A deep rationality framework not only helps explain why people make the decisions they do, but also inspires multiple directions for future research.

Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making

PubMed Central

Kenrick, Douglas T.; Griskevicius, Vladas; Sundie, Jill M.; Li, Norman P.; Li, Yexin Jessica; Neuberg, Steven L.

2009-01-01

What is a “rational” decision? Economists traditionally viewed rationality as maximizing expected satisfaction. This view has been useful in modeling basic microeconomic concepts, but falls short in accounting for many everyday human decisions. It leaves unanswered why some things reliably make people more satisfied than others, and why people frequently act to make others happy at a cost to themselves. Drawing on an evolutionary perspective, we propose that people make decisions according to a set of principles that may not appear to make sense at the superficial level, but that demonstrate rationality at a deeper evolutionary level. By this, we mean that people use adaptive domain-specific decision-rules that, on average, would have resulted in fitness benefits. Using this framework, we re-examine several economic principles. We suggest that traditional psychological functions governing risk aversion, discounting of future benefits, and budget allocations to multiple goods, for example, vary in predictable ways as a function of the underlying motive of the decision-maker and individual differences linked to evolved life-history strategies. A deep rationality framework not only helps explain why people make the decisions they do, but also inspires multiple directions for future research. PMID:20686634

Frontopolar cortex and decision-making efficiency: comparing brain activity of experts with different professional background during an exploration-exploitation task

PubMed Central

Laureiro-Martínez, Daniella; Canessa, Nicola; Brusoni, Stefano; Zollo, Maurizio; Hare, Todd; Alemanno, Federica; Cappa, Stefano F.

2014-01-01

An optimal balance between efficient exploitation of available resources and creative exploration of alternatives is critical for adaptation and survival. Previous studies associated these behavioral drives with, respectively, the dopaminergic mesocorticolimbic system and frontopolar-intraparietal networks. We study the activation of these systems in two age and gender-matched groups of experienced decision-makers differing in prior professional background, with the aim to understand the neural bases of individual differences in decision-making efficiency (performance divided by response time). We compare brain activity of entrepreneurs (who currently manage the organization they founded based on their venture idea) and managers (who are constantly involved in making strategic decisions but have no venture experience) engaged in a gambling-task assessing exploitative vs. explorative decision-making. Compared with managers, entrepreneurs showed higher decision-making efficiency, and a stronger activation in regions of frontopolar cortex (FPC) previously associated with explorative choice. Moreover, activity across a network of regions previously linked to explore/exploit tradeoffs explained individual differences in choice efficiency. These results suggest new avenues for the study of individual differences in the neural antecedents of efficient decision-making. PMID:24478664

On-line confidence monitoring during decision making.

PubMed

Dotan, Dror; Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

2018-02-01

Humans can readily assess their degree of confidence in their decisions. Two models of confidence computation have been proposed: post hoc computation using post-decision variables and heuristics, versus online computation using continuous assessment of evidence throughout the decision-making process. Here, we arbitrate between these theories by continuously monitoring finger movements during a manual sequential decision-making task. Analysis of finger kinematics indicated that subjects kept separate online records of evidence and confidence: finger deviation continuously reflected the ongoing accumulation of evidence, whereas finger speed continuously reflected the momentary degree of confidence. Furthermore, end-of-trial finger speed predicted the post-decisional subjective confidence rating. These data indicate that confidence is computed on-line, throughout the decision process. Speed-confidence correlations were previously interpreted as a post-decision heuristics, whereby slow decisions decrease subjective confidence, but our results suggest an adaptive mechanism that involves the opposite causality: by slowing down when unconfident, participants gain time to improve their decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A new decision sciences for complex systems.

PubMed

Lempert, Robert J

2002-05-14

Models of complex systems can capture much useful information but can be difficult to apply to real-world decision-making because the type of information they contain is often inconsistent with that required for traditional decision analysis. New approaches, which use inductive reasoning over large ensembles of computational experiments, now make possible systematic comparison of alternative policy options using models of complex systems. This article describes Computer-Assisted Reasoning, an approach to decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty that is ideally suited to applying complex systems to policy analysis. The article demonstrates the approach on the policy problem of global climate change, with a particular focus on the role of technology policies in a robust, adaptive strategy for greenhouse gas abatement.

Drought Risk and Adaptation in the Interior (DRAI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeeley, S.; Ojima, D. S.

2013-12-01

Drought is part of the normal climate variability in the Great Plains and Intermountain Western United States, but recent severe droughts along with climate change projections have increased the interest and need for better understanding of drought science and decision making. The purpose of this study is to understand how the U.S. Department of the Interior's (DOI) federal land and resource managers and their stakeholders (i.e., National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, Fish and Wildlife Service, Bureau of Reclamation, Bureau of Indian Affairs and tribes, among others) are experiencing and dealing with drought in their landscapes. The Drought Risk and Adaptation in the Interior (DRAI) project is part of a new DOI-sponsored North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) crosscutting science initiative on drought across the Center's three foundational science areas: 1. physical climate, 2. ecosystems impacts and responses, and 3. human adaptation and decision making. The overarching goal is to learn more about drought within the DOI public lands and resource management in order to contribute to both the NC CSC regional science as well as providing managers and other decision makers with the most salient, credible, and legitimate research to support land and resource management decisions. Here we will present the project approach along with some initial insights learned from the research to date along with its utility for climate adaptation.

Fuzzy Behavior-Based Navigation for Planetary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tunstel, Edward; Danny, Harrison; Lippincott, Tanya; Jamshidi, Mo

1997-01-01

Adaptive behavioral capabilities are necessary for robust rover navigation in unstructured and partially-mapped environments. A control approach is described which exploits the approximate reasoning capability of fuzzy logic to produce adaptive motion behavior. In particular, a behavior-based architecture for hierarchical fuzzy control of microrovers is presented. Its structure is described, as well as mechanisms of control decision-making which give rise to adaptive behavior. Control decisions for local navigation result from a consensus of recommendations offered only by behaviors that are applicable to current situations. Simulation predicts the navigation performance on a microrover in simplified Mars-analog terrain.

Hybrid Model Predictive Control for Sequential Decision Policies in Adaptive Behavioral Interventions.

PubMed

Dong, Yuwen; Deshpande, Sunil; Rivera, Daniel E; Downs, Danielle S; Savage, Jennifer S

2014-06-01

Control engineering offers a systematic and efficient method to optimize the effectiveness of individually tailored treatment and prevention policies known as adaptive or "just-in-time" behavioral interventions. The nature of these interventions requires assigning dosages at categorical levels, which has been addressed in prior work using Mixed Logical Dynamical (MLD)-based hybrid model predictive control (HMPC) schemes. However, certain requirements of adaptive behavioral interventions that involve sequential decision making have not been comprehensively explored in the literature. This paper presents an extension of the traditional MLD framework for HMPC by representing the requirements of sequential decision policies as mixed-integer linear constraints. This is accomplished with user-specified dosage sequence tables, manipulation of one input at a time, and a switching time strategy for assigning dosages at time intervals less frequent than the measurement sampling interval. A model developed for a gestational weight gain (GWG) intervention is used to illustrate the generation of these sequential decision policies and their effectiveness for implementing adaptive behavioral interventions involving multiple components.

Do We Need Better Climate Predictions to Adapt to a Changing Climate? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessai, S.; Hulme, M.; Lempert, R.; Pielke, R., Jr.

2009-12-01

Based on a series of international scientific assessments, climate change has been presented to society as a major problem that needs urgently to be tackled. The science that underpins these assessments has been pre-dominantly from the realm of the natural sciences and central to this framing have been ‘projections’ of future climate change (and its impacts on environment and society) under various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and using a variety of climate model predictions with embedded assumptions. Central to much of the discussion surrounding adaptation to climate change is the claim - explicit or implicit - that decision makers need accurate and increasingly precise assessments of future impacts of climate change in order to adapt successfully. If true, this claim places a high premium on accurate and precise climate predictions at a range of geographical and temporal scales; such predictions therefore become indispensable, and indeed a prerequisite for, effective adaptation decision-making. But is effective adaptation tied to the ability of the scientific enterprise to predict future climate with accuracy and precision? If so, this may impose a serious and intractable limit on adaptation. This paper proceeds in three sections. It first gathers evidence of claims that climate prediction is necessary for adaptation decision-making. This evidence is drawn from peer-reviewed literature and from published science funding strategies and government policy in a number of different countries. The second part discusses the challenges of climate prediction and why science will consistently be unable to provide accurate and precise predictions of future climate relevant for adaptation (usually at the local/regional level). Section three discusses whether these limits to future foresight represent a limit to adaptation, arguing that effective adaptation need not be limited by a general inability to predict future climate. Given the deep uncertainties involved in climate prediction (and even more so in the prediction of climate impacts) and given that climate is usually only one factor in decisions aimed at climate adaptation, we conclude that the ‘predict and provide’ approach to science in support of climate change adaptation is largely flawed. We consider other important areas of public policy fraught with uncertainty - e.g. earthquake risk, national security, public health - where such a ‘predict and provide’ approach is not attempted. Instead of relying on an approach which has climate prediction (and consequent risk assessment) at its heart - which because of the associated epistemological limits to prediction will consequently act as an apparent limit to adaptation - we need to view adaptation differently, in a manner that opens up options for decision making under uncertainty. We suggest an approach which examines the robustness of adaptation strategies/policies/activities to the myriad of uncertainties that face us in the future, only one of which is the state of climate.

Adaptation Planning for Water Resources Management in the Context of Scientific Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowrey, J.; Kenney, D.

2008-12-01

Several municipalities are beginning to create policies and plans in order to adapt to potential impacts from climate change. A 2007 report from the Heinz Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment, 'A Survey of Climate Change Adaptation Planning,' surveyed fourteen cities or counties across the U.S. and Canada that have created or are working towards creating climate change adaptation plans. Informal interactions with water managers in the Intermountain West indicate an eagerness to learn from those who have already begun adapting to potential climate change. Many of those without plans do not feel comfortable making potentially expensive long-term policy decisions based on impacts derived from uncertain climate change projections. This research identifies how decision makers currently consider climate change in adaptation planning despite imperfect information about climate change impacts, particularly in the water sector. Insights are offered into how best to provide information on climate change projections to regional decision makers so that they can begin adaptation planning for a changing climate. This research analyzes how a subset of the fourteen municipalities justified adaptive planning in the face of scientific uncertainty, paying particular attention to water resource adaptation, using the adaptation approaches studied in the 2007 Heinz Center Report. Interviews will be conducted with decision makers to learn how policies will be implemented and evaluated, and to explore resulting changes in policy or planning. Adaptation strategies are not assessed, but are used to identify how the decision makers plan to evaluate their own adaptation policies. In addition to looking at information use in adaptation plans, we compare how the plans orient themselves (adapting to projected impacts vs. increasing resiliency to current climate variability), how they address barriers and opportunities for adaptation, and whether they follow some key steps for successful adaptation as outlined in the literature. This part of the study will identify any consensus among the municipalities already adapting, and see of the decision makers tend to agree with the points of views expressed in the literature. The conclusions here will not only help decision makers trying to adapt, but it will help researchers orient future research to the informational needs of the decision makers. The work is intended to provide useful information for the Western Water Assessment, a NOAA-funded research boundary organization, which provides climate information to water resource managers in the Intermountain West, including the Colorado River Basin.

Separate neural mechanisms underlie choices and strategic preferences in risky decision making.

PubMed

Venkatraman, Vinod; Payne, John W; Bettman, James R; Luce, Mary Frances; Huettel, Scott A

2009-05-28

Adaptive decision making in real-world contexts often relies on strategic simplifications of decision problems. Yet, the neural mechanisms that shape these strategies and their implementation remain largely unknown. Using an economic decision-making task, we dissociate brain regions that predict specific choices from those predicting an individual's preferred strategy. Choices that maximized gains or minimized losses were predicted by functional magnetic resonance imaging activation in ventromedial prefrontal cortex or anterior insula, respectively. However, choices that followed a simplifying strategy (i.e., attending to overall probability of winning) were associated with activation in parietal and lateral prefrontal cortices. Dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, through differential functional connectivity with parietal and insular cortex, predicted individual variability in strategic preferences. Finally, we demonstrate that robust decision strategies follow from neural sensitivity to rewards. We conclude that decision making reflects more than compensatory interaction of choice-related regions; in addition, specific brain systems potentiate choices depending on strategies, traits, and context.

Separate neural mechanisms underlie choices and strategic preferences in risky decision making

PubMed Central

Venkatraman, Vinod; Payne, John W.; Bettman, James R.; Luce, Mary Frances; Huettel, Scott A.

2011-01-01

Adaptive decision making in real-world contexts often relies on strategic simplifications of decision problems. Yet, the neural mechanisms that shape these strategies and their implementation remain largely unknown. Using a novel economic decision-making task, we dissociate brain regions that predict specific choices from those predicting an individual’s preferred strategy. Choices that maximized gains or minimized losses were predicted by fMRI activation in ventromedial prefrontal cortex or anterior insula, respectively. However, choices that followed a simplifying strategy (i.e., attending to overall probability of winning) were associated with activation in parietal and lateral prefrontal cortices. Dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, through differential functional connectivity with parietal and insular cortex, predicted individual variability in strategic preferences. Finally, we demonstrate that robust decision strategies follow from neural sensitivity to rewards. We conclude that decision making reflects more than compensatory interaction of choice-related regions; in addition, specific brain systems potentiate choices depending upon strategies, traits, and context. PMID:19477159

Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India.

PubMed

Bhave, Ajay Gajanan; Conway, Declan; Dessai, Suraje; Stainforth, David A

2018-02-01

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi-method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this approach to explore the robustness of adaptation options and pathways against future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. A water resources model is calibrated and validated satisfactorily using observed streamflow. Plausible future changes in Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation and water demand are used to drive simulations of water resources from 2021 to 2055. Two stakeholder-identified decision-critical metrics are examined: a basin-wide metric comprising legal instream flow requirements for the downstream state of Tamil Nadu, and a local metric comprising water supply reliability to Bangalore city. In model simulations, the ability to satisfy these performance metrics without adaptation is reduced under almost all scenarios. Implementing adaptation options can partially offset the negative impacts of change. Sequencing of options according to stakeholder priorities into Adaptation Pathways affects metric satisfaction. Early focus on agricultural demand management improves the robustness of pathways but trade-offs emerge between intrabasin and basin-wide water availability. We demonstrate that the fine balance between water availability and demand is vulnerable to future changes and uncertainty. Despite current and long-term planning challenges, stakeholders in developing countries may engage meaningfully in coproduction approaches for adaptation decision-making under deep uncertainty.

Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhave, Ajay Gajanan; Conway, Declan; Dessai, Suraje; Stainforth, David A.

2018-02-01

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi-method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this approach to explore the robustness of adaptation options and pathways against future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. A water resources model is calibrated and validated satisfactorily using observed streamflow. Plausible future changes in Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation and water demand are used to drive simulations of water resources from 2021 to 2055. Two stakeholder-identified decision-critical metrics are examined: a basin-wide metric comprising legal instream flow requirements for the downstream state of Tamil Nadu, and a local metric comprising water supply reliability to Bangalore city. In model simulations, the ability to satisfy these performance metrics without adaptation is reduced under almost all scenarios. Implementing adaptation options can partially offset the negative impacts of change. Sequencing of options according to stakeholder priorities into Adaptation Pathways affects metric satisfaction. Early focus on agricultural demand management improves the robustness of pathways but trade-offs emerge between intrabasin and basin-wide water availability. We demonstrate that the fine balance between water availability and demand is vulnerable to future changes and uncertainty. Despite current and long-term planning challenges, stakeholders in developing countries may engage meaningfully in coproduction approaches for adaptation decision-making under deep uncertainty.

The Way We Learn

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caine, Renate Nummela; Caine, Geoffrey

2006-01-01

Although students' eclecticism can be overwhelming, all students are identical in at least one respect--they are biologically equipped to learn from experiences. Caine and Caine discuss neurological findings about decision-making capacities built into the brain. They describe Elkhonen Goldberg's concept of actor-centered adaptive decision making…

Judgment and decision making.

PubMed

Mellers, B A; Schwartz, A; Cooke, A D

1998-01-01

For many decades, research in judgment and decision making has examined behavioral violations of rational choice theory. In that framework, rationality is expressed as a single correct decision shared by experimenters and subjects that satisfies internal coherence within a set of preferences and beliefs. Outside of psychology, social scientists are now debating the need to modify rational choice theory with behavioral assumptions. Within psychology, researchers are debating assumptions about errors for many different definitions of rationality. Alternative frameworks are being proposed. These frameworks view decisions as more reasonable and adaptive that previously thought. For example, "rule following." Rule following, which occurs when a rule or norm is applied to a situation, often minimizes effort and provides satisfying solutions that are "good enough," though not necessarily the best. When rules are ambiguous, people look for reasons to guide their decisions. They may also let their emotions take charge. This chapter presents recent research on judgment and decision making from traditional and alternative frameworks.

Adaptive Management and Monitoring as Fundamental Tools to Effective Salt Marsh Restoration

EPA Science Inventory

Adaptive management as applied to ecological restoration is a systematic decision-making process in which the results of restoration activities are repeatedly monitored and evaluated to provide guidance that can be used in determining any necessary future restoration actions. In...

Disadvantageous decision-making in borderline personality disorder: Partial support from a meta-analytic review.

PubMed

Paret, Christian; Jennen-Steinmetz, Christine; Schmahl, Christian

2017-01-01

To achieve long-term goals, organisms evaluate outcomes and expected consequences of their behaviors. Unfavorable decisions maintain many symptoms of borderline personality disorder (BPD); therefore, a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying decision-making in BPD is needed. In this review, the current literature comparing decision-making in patients with BPD versus healthy controls is analyzed. Twenty-eight empirical studies were identified through a structured literature search. The effect sizes from studies applying comparable experimental tasks were analyzed. It was found that (1) BPD patients discounted delayed rewards more strongly; (2) reversal learning was not significantly altered in BPD; and (3) BPD patients achieved lower net gains in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Current psychotropic medication, sex and differences in age between the patient and control group moderated the IGT outcome. Altered decision-making in a variety of other tasks was supported by a qualitative review. In summary, current evidence supports the altered valuation of outcomes in BPD. A multifaceted influence on decision-making and adaptive learning is reflected in this literature. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): A novel practical guidance for Climate Resilient Investments and Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeuken, Ad; Mendoza, Guillermo; Matthews, John; Ray, Patrick; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Gilroy, Kristin; Olsen, Rolf; Kucharski, John; Stakhiv, Gene; Cushing, Janet; Brown, Casey

2016-04-01

Engineers and water managers have always incorporated uncertainty in water resources operations, design and planning. In recent years, concern has been growing concern that many of the fundamental principles to address uncertainty in planning and design are insufficient for coping with unprecedented shifts in climate, especially given the long lifetimes of water investments - spanning decades, even centuries. Can we design and operate new flood risk management, energy, water supply and sanitation, and agricultural projects that are robust to shifts over 20, 50, or more years? Since about 2009, better approaches to planning and designing under climate uncertainty have been gaining ground worldwide. The main challenge is to operationalize these approaches and bring them from science to practice, embed them within the existing decision-making processes of particular institutions, and shift from highly specialized "boutique" applications to methods that result in consistent, replicable outcomes accessible to water managers worldwide. With CRIDA a serious step is taken to achieve these goals. CRIDA is built on two innovative but complementary approaches that have developed in isolation across the Atlantic over the past seven years: diagnosing and assessing risk (decision scaling), and developing sequential decision steps to compensate for uncertainty within regulatory / performance standards (adaptation pathways). First, the decision scaling or "bottom up" framework to climate change adaptation was first conceptualized during the US/Canada Great Lakes regulation study and has recently been placed in a decision-making context for water-related investments published by the World Bank Second, the adaptation pathways approach was developed in the Netherlands to cope with the level of climate uncertainty we now face. Adaptation pathways is a tool for maintaining options and flexibility while meeting operational goals by envisioning how sequences of decisions can be navigated over time. They are part of the Dutch adaptive planning approach Adaptive Delta Management, executed and develop by the Dutch Delta program. Both decision scaling and adaptation pathways have been piloted in studies worldwide. The objective of CRIDA is to mainstream effective climate adaptation for professional water managers. The CRIDA publication, due in april 2016, follows the generic water design planning design cycle. At each step, CRIDA describes stepwise guidance for incorporating climate robustness: problem definition, stress test, alternatives formulation and recommendation, evaluation and selection. In the presentation the origin, goal, steps and practical tools available at each step of CRIDA will be explained. In two other abstracts ("Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region" by Gilroy et al., "The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia, by Kucharski et al.), the application of CRIDA to cases is explained

Adaptive automation of human-machine system information-processing functions.

PubMed

Kaber, David B; Wright, Melanie C; Prinzel, Lawrence J; Clamann, Michael P

2005-01-01

The goal of this research was to describe the ability of human operators to interact with adaptive automation (AA) applied to various stages of complex systems information processing, defined in a model of human-automation interaction. Forty participants operated a simulation of an air traffic control task. Automated assistance was adaptively applied to information acquisition, information analysis, decision making, and action implementation aspects of the task based on operator workload states, which were measured using a secondary task. The differential effects of the forms of automation were determined and compared with a manual control condition. Results of two 20-min trials of AA or manual control revealed a significant effect of the type of automation on performance, particularly during manual control periods as part of the adaptive conditions. Humans appear to better adapt to AA applied to sensory and psychomotor information-processing functions (action implementation) than to AA applied to cognitive functions (information analysis and decision making), and AA is superior to completely manual control. Potential applications of this research include the design of automation to support air traffic controller information processing.

Shared Decision Making in Intensive Care Units: An American College of Critical Care Medicine and American Thoracic Society Policy Statement

PubMed Central

Kon, Alexander A.; Davidson, Judy E.; Morrison, Wynne; Danis, Marion; White, Douglas B.

2015-01-01

Objectives Shared decision-making (SDM) is endorsed by critical care organizations, however there remains confusion about what SDM is, when it should be used, and approaches to promote partnerships in treatment decisions. The purpose of this statement is to define SDM, recommend when SDM should be used, identify the range of ethically acceptable decision-making models, and present important communication skills. Methods The American College of Critical Care Medicine (ACCM) and American Thoracic Society (ATS) Ethics Committees reviewed empirical research and normative analyses published in peer-reviewed journals to generate recommendations. Recommendations approved by consensus of the full Ethics Committees of ACCM and ATS were included in the statement. Main Results Six recommendations were endorsed: 1) Definition: Shared decision-making is a collaborative process that allows patients, or their surrogates, and clinicians to make health care decisions together, taking into account the best scientific evidence available, as well as the patient’s values, goals, and preferences. 2) Clinicians should engage in a SDM process to define overall goals of care (including decisions regarding limiting or withdrawing life-prolonging interventions) and when making major treatment decisions that may be affected by personal values, goals, and preferences. 3) Clinicians should use as their “default” approach a SDM process that includes three main elements: information exchange, deliberation, and making a treatment decision. 4) A wide range of decision-making approaches are ethically supportable including patient- or surrogate-directed and clinician-directed models. Clinicians should tailor the decision-making process based on the preferences of the patient or surrogate. 5) Clinicians should be trained in communication skills. 6) Research is needed to evaluate decision-making strategies. Conclusions Patient and surrogate preferences for decision-making roles regarding value-laden choices range from preferring to exercise significant authority to ceding such authority to providers. Clinicians should adapt the decision-making model to the needs and preferences of the patient or surrogate. PMID:26509317

Does fertility status influence impulsivity and risk taking in human females? Adaptive influences on intertemporal choice and risky decision making.

PubMed

Kaighobadi, Farnaz; Stevens, Jeffrey R

2013-07-18

Informed by the research on adaptive decision making in other animal species, this study investigated human females' intertemporal and risky choices across the ovulatory cycle. We tested the hypothesis that at peak fertility, women who are exposed to environments that signal availability of higher quality mates (by viewing images of attractive males), become more impulsive and risk-seeking in economic decision tasks. To test this, we collected intertemporal and risky choice measures before and after exposure to images of either attractive males or neutral landscapes both at peak and low fertility conditions. The results showed an interaction between women's fertility status and image type, such that women at peak fertility viewing images of attractive men chose the smaller, sooner monetary reward option less than women at peak fertility viewing neutral images. Neither fertility status nor image type influenced risky choice. Thus, though exposure to images of men altered intertemporal choices at peak fertility, this occurred in the opposite direction than predicted--i.e., women at peak fertility became less impulsive. Nevertheless, the results of the current study provide evidence for shifts in preferences over the ovulatory cycle and opens future research on economic decision making.

NASA Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Stamatelatos, Michael; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher; Youngblood, Robert; Rutledge, Peter; Benjamin, Allan; Williams, Rodney; Smith, Curtis; Guarro, Sergio

2010-01-01

This handbook provides guidance for conducting risk-informed decision making in the context of NASA risk management (RM), with a focus on the types of direction-setting key decisions that are characteristic of the NASA program and project life cycles, and which produce derived requirements in accordance with existing systems engineering practices that flow down through the NASA organizational hierarchy. The guidance in this handbook is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular decision problems that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when making decisions in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced.

A Cooperative Human-Adaptive Traffic Simulation (CHATS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, Charles T.; Ballin, Mark G.

1999-01-01

NASA is considering the development of a Cooperative Human-Adaptive Traffic Simulation (CHATS), to examine and evaluate performance of the National Airspace System (NAS) as the aviation community moves toward free flight. CHATS will be specifically oriented toward simulating strategic decision-making by airspace users and by the service provider s traffic management personnel, within the context of different airspace and rules assumptions. It will use human teams to represent these interests and make decisions, and will rely on computer modeling and simulation to calculate the impacts of these decisions. The simulation objectives will be to examine: 1. evolution of airspace users and the service provider s strategies, through adaptation to new operational environments; 2. air carriers competitive and cooperative behavior; 3. expected benefits to airspace users and the service provider as compared to the current NAS; 4. operational limitations of free flight concepts due to congestion and safety concerns. This paper describes an operational concept for CHATS, and presents a high-level functional design which would utilize a combination of existing and new models and simulation capabilities.

Dynamic adaptive learning for decision-making supporting systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Haibo; Cao, Yuan; Chen, Sheng; Desai, Sachi; Hohil, Myron E.

2008-03-01

This paper proposes a novel adaptive learning method for data mining in support of decision-making systems. Due to the inherent characteristics of information ambiguity/uncertainty, high dimensionality and noisy in many homeland security and defense applications, such as surveillances, monitoring, net-centric battlefield, and others, it is critical to develop autonomous learning methods to efficiently learn useful information from raw data to help the decision making process. The proposed method is based on a dynamic learning principle in the feature spaces. Generally speaking, conventional approaches of learning from high dimensional data sets include various feature extraction (principal component analysis, wavelet transform, and others) and feature selection (embedded approach, wrapper approach, filter approach, and others) methods. However, very limited understandings of adaptive learning from different feature spaces have been achieved. We propose an integrative approach that takes advantages of feature selection and hypothesis ensemble techniques to achieve our goal. Based on the training data distributions, a feature score function is used to provide a measurement of the importance of different features for learning purpose. Then multiple hypotheses are iteratively developed in different feature spaces according to their learning capabilities. Unlike the pre-set iteration steps in many of the existing ensemble learning approaches, such as adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) method, the iterative learning process will automatically stop when the intelligent system can not provide a better understanding than a random guess in that particular subset of feature spaces. Finally, a voting algorithm is used to combine all the decisions from different hypotheses to provide the final prediction results. Simulation analyses of the proposed method on classification of different US military aircraft databases show the effectiveness of this method.

Investigating a self-scoring interview simulation for learning and assessment in the medical consultation.

PubMed

Bruen, Catherine; Kreiter, Clarence; Wade, Vincent; Pawlikowska, Teresa

2017-01-01

Experience with simulated patients supports undergraduate learning of medical consultation skills. Adaptive simulations are being introduced into this environment. The authors investigate whether it can underpin valid and reliable assessment by conducting a generalizability analysis using IT data analytics from the interaction of medical students (in psychiatry) with adaptive simulations to explore the feasibility of adaptive simulations for supporting automated learning and assessment. The generalizability (G) study was focused on two clinically relevant variables: clinical decision points and communication skills. While the G study on the communication skills score yielded low levels of true score variance, the results produced by the decision points, indicating clinical decision-making and confirming user knowledge of the process of the Calgary-Cambridge model of consultation, produced reliability levels similar to what might be expected with rater-based scoring. The findings indicate that adaptive simulations have potential as a teaching and assessment tool for medical consultations.

Sure I'm Sure: Prefrontal Oscillations Support Metacognitive Monitoring of Decision Making.

PubMed

Wokke, Martijn E; Cleeremans, Axel; Ridderinkhof, K Richard

2017-01-25

Successful decision making critically involves metacognitive processes such as monitoring and control of our decision process. Metacognition enables agents to modify ongoing behavior adaptively and determine what to do next in situations in which external feedback is not (immediately) available. Despite the importance of metacognition for many aspects of life, little is known about how our metacognitive system operates or about what kind of information is used for metacognitive (second-order) judgments. In particular, it remains an open question whether metacognitive judgments are based on the same information as first-order decisions. Here, we investigated the relationship between metacognitive performance and first-order task performance by recording EEG signals while participants were asked to make a "diagnosis" after seeing a sample of fictitious patient data (a complex pattern of colored moving dots of different sizes). To assess metacognitive performance, participants provided an estimate about the quality of their diagnosis on each trial. Results demonstrate that the information that contributes to first-order decisions differs from the information that supports metacognitive judgments. Further, time-frequency analyses of EEG signals reveal that metacognitive performance is associated specifically with prefrontal theta-band activity. Together, our findings are consistent with a hierarchical model of metacognition and suggest a crucial role for prefrontal oscillations in metacognitive performance. Monitoring and control of our decision process (metacognition) is a crucial aspect of adaptive decision making. Crucially, metacognitive skills enable us to adjust ongoing behavior and determine future decision making when immediate feedback is not available. In the present study, we constructed a "diagnosis task" that allowed us to assess in what way first-order task performance and metacognition are related to each other. Results demonstrate that the contribution of sensory evidence (size, color, and motion direction) differs between first- and second-order decision making. Further, our results indicate that metacognitive performance specifically is orchestrated by means of prefrontal theta oscillations. Together, our findings suggest a hierarchical model of metacognition. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/370781-09$15.00/0.

Ventral striatum and the evaluation of memory retrieval strategies.

PubMed

Badre, David; Lebrecht, Sophie; Pagliaccio, David; Long, Nicole M; Scimeca, Jason M

2014-09-01

Adaptive memory retrieval requires mechanisms of cognitive control that facilitate the recovery of goal-relevant information. Frontoparietal systems are known to support control of memory retrieval. However, the mechanisms by which the brain acquires, evaluates, and adapts retrieval strategies remain unknown. Here, we provide evidence that ventral striatal activation tracks the success of a retrieval strategy and correlates with subsequent reliance on that strategy. Human participants were scanned with fMRI while performing a lexical decision task. A rule was provided that indicated the likely semantic category of a target word given the category of a preceding prime. Reliance on the rule improved decision-making, as estimated within a drift diffusion framework. Ventral striatal activation tracked the benefit that relying on the rule had on decision-making. Moreover, activation in ventral striatum correlated with a participant's subsequent reliance on the rule. Taken together, these results support a role for ventral striatum in learning and evaluating declarative retrieval strategies.

Does Decision Quality (Always) Increase with the Size of Information Samples? Some Vicissitudes in Applying the Law of Large Numbers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fiedler, Klaus; Kareev, Yaakov

2006-01-01

Adaptive decision making requires that contingencies between decision options and their relative assets be assessed accurately and quickly. The present research addresses the challenging notion that contingencies may be more visible from small than from large samples of observations. An algorithmic account for such a seemingly paradoxical effect…

Mental Health and Head Start: Teaching Adaptive Skills.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forness, Steven R.; Serna, Loretta A.; Kavale, Kenneth A.; Nielsen, Elizabeth

1998-01-01

Describes the use of a self-determination curriculum for mental-health intervention and primary prevention for Head Start children. The curriculum addresses critical adaptive-skills domains, including social skills, self-evaluation, self-direction, networking or friendship, collaboration or support seeking, problem solving and decision making, and…

Novice High School Science Teachers: Lesson Plan Adaptations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scharon, Aracelis Janelle

2013-01-01

The Next Generation Science Standards (NRC, 2013) positions teachers as responsible for necessary decision making about how their intended science lesson plan content supports continuous student science learning. Teachers interact with their instructional lesson plans in dynamic and constructive ways. Adapting lesson plans is complex. This process…

Automated Intelligent Training with a Tactical Decision Making Serious Game

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

tactical skills, but only if experiential events are accompanied with guided feedback. Practice alone is not sufficient for learning; it must be...micro-adaptation occurs within events (Shute, 1993). Micro-adaptation is a major component of InGEAR’s pedagogical strategy, with feedback tailored

Design of Adaptive Policy Pathways under Deep Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babovic, Vladan

2013-04-01

The design of large-scale engineering and infrastructural systems today is growing in complexity. Designers need to consider sociotechnical uncertainties, intricacies, and processes in the long- term strategic deployment and operations of these systems. In this context, water and spatial management is increasingly challenged not only by climate-associated changes such as sea level rise and increased spatio-temporal variability of precipitation, but also by pressures due to population growth and particularly accelerating rate of urbanisation. Furthermore, high investment costs and long term-nature of water-related infrastructure projects requires long-term planning perspective, sometimes extending over many decades. Adaptation to such changes is not only determined by what is known or anticipated at present, but also by what will be experienced and learned as the future unfolds, as well as by policy responses to social and water events. As a result, a pathway emerges. Instead of responding to 'surprises' and making decisions on ad hoc basis, exploring adaptation pathways into the future provide indispensable support in water management decision-making. In this contribution, a structured approach for designing a dynamic adaptive policy based on the concepts of adaptive policy making and adaptation pathways is introduced. Such an approach provides flexibility which allows change over time in response to how the future unfolds, what is learned about the system, and changes in societal preferences. The introduced flexibility provides means for dealing with complexities of adaptation under deep uncertainties. It enables engineering systems to change in the face of uncertainty to reduce impacts from downside scenarios while capitalizing on upside opportunities. This contribution presents comprehensive framework for development and deployment of adaptive policy pathway framework, and demonstrates its performance under deep uncertainties on a case study related to urban water catchment in Singapore. Ingredients of this approach are: (a) transient scenarios (time series of various uncertain developments such as climate change, economic developments, societal changes), (b) a methodology for exploring many options and sequences of these options across different futures, and (c) a stepwise policy analysis. The strategy is applied on case of flexible deployment of novel, so-called Next Generation Infrastructure, and assessed in context of the proposed. Results of the study show that flexible design alternatives deliver much enhanced performance compared to systems optimized under deterministic forecasts of the future. The work also demonstrates that explicit incorporation of uncertainty and flexibility into decision-making process reduces capital expenditures while allowing decision makers to learn about system evolution throughout the lifetime of the project.

Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

2016-04-01

Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing agricultural water demand significantly affect downstream water availability. Water demand options demonstrate potential to improve environmental flow conditions and satisfy legal water supply requirements for downstream riparian states. On the other hand, currently planned large scale infrastructural projects demonstrate reduced value in certain scenarios, illustrating the impacts of lock-in effects of large scale infrastructure. From a methodological perspective, we find that while the stakeholder-driven approach revealed robust options in a resource-light manner and helped initiate much needed interaction amongst stakeholders, the modelling approach provides complementary quantitative information. The study reveals robust adaptation options for this important basin and provides a strong methodological basis for carrying out future studies that support adaptation decision making.

The Dynamics of Vulnerability and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Urban Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dilling, L.; Daly, M.; Travis, W.; Wilhelmi, O.; Klein, R.; Kenney, D.; Ray, A. J.; Miller, K.

2013-12-01

Recent reports and scholarship have suggested that adapting to current climate variability may represent a "no regrets" strategy for adapting to climate change. Filling "adaptation deficits" and other approaches that rely on addressing current vulnerabilities are of course helpful for responding to current climate variability, but we find here that they are not sufficient for adapting to climate change. First, following a comprehensive review and unique synthesis of the natural hazards and climate adaptation literatures, we advance six reasons why adapting to climate variability is not sufficient for adapting to climate change: 1) Vulnerability is different at different levels of exposure; 2) Coping with climate variability is not equivalent to adaptation to longer term change; 3) The socioeconomic context for vulnerability is constantly changing; 4) The perception of risk associated with climate variability does not necessarily promote adaptive behavior in the face of climate change; 5) Adaptations made to short term climate variability may reduce the flexibility of the system in the long term; and 6) Adaptive actions may shift vulnerabilities to other parts of the system or to other people. Instead we suggest that decision makers faced with choices to adapt to climate change must consider the dynamics of vulnerability in a connected system-- how choices made in one part of the system might impact other valued outcomes or even create new vulnerabilities. Furthermore we suggest that rather than expressing climate change adaptation as an extension of adaptation to climate variability, the research and practice communities would do well to articulate adaptation as an imperfect policy, with tradeoffs and consequences and that decisions be prioritized to preserve flexibility be revisited often as climate change unfolds. We then present the results of a number of empirical studies of decision making for drought in urban water systems in the United States to understand: a) the variety of actions taken; b) the limitations of actions available to water managers; and c) the effectiveness of actions taken to date. Time permitting, we briefly present the results of 3 in-depth case studies of drought response and current perception of preparedness with respect to future drought and climate change among urban water system managers. We examine the role of governance, system connectivity, public perceptions and other factors in driving decision making and outcomes.

Group decision making with the analytic hierarchy process in benefit-risk assessment: a tutorial.

PubMed

Hummel, J Marjan; Bridges, John F P; IJzerman, Maarten J

2014-01-01

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria. This tutorial illustrates the procedural steps of the AHP in supporting group decision making about new healthcare technology, including (1) identifying the decision goal, decision criteria, and alternative healthcare technologies to compare, (2) structuring the decision criteria, (3) judging the value of the alternative technologies on each decision criterion, (4) judging the importance of the decision criteria, (5) calculating group judgments, (6) analyzing the inconsistency in judgments, (7) calculating the overall value of the technologies, and (8) conducting sensitivity analyses. The AHP is illustrated via a hypothetical example, adapted from an empirical AHP analysis on the benefits and risks of tissue regeneration to repair small cartilage lesions in the knee.

Embedding climate change risk assessment within a governance context

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Preston, Benjamin L

Climate change adaptation is increasingly being framed in the context of climate risk management. This has contributed to the proliferation of climate change vulnerability and/or risk assessments as means of supporting institutional decision-making regarding adaptation policies and measures. To date, however, little consideration has been given to how such assessment projects and programs interact with governance systems to facilitate or hinder the implementation of adaptive responses. An examination of recent case studies involving Australian local governments reveals two key linkages between risk assessment and the governance of adaptation. First, governance systems influence how risk assessment processes are conducted, by whommore » they are conducted, and whom they are meant to inform. Australia s governance system emphasizes evidence-based decision-making that reinforces a knowledge deficit model of decision support. Assessments are often carried out by external experts on behalf of local government, with limited participation by relevant stakeholders and/or civil society. Second, governance systems influence the extent to which the outputs from risk assessment activities are translated into adaptive responses and outcomes. Technical information regarding risk is often stranded by institutional barriers to adaptation including poor uptake of information, competition on the policy agenda, and lack of sufficient entitlements. Yet, risk assessments can assist in bringing such barriers to the surface, where they can be debated and resolved. In fact, well-designed risk assessments can contribute to multi-loop learning by institutions, and that reflexive problem orientation may be one of the more valuable benefits of assessment.« less

Getting Beyond First Base: Science-Society Communication for Climate Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garfin, G. M.

2010-12-01

At a 2009 international workshop on transboundary climate and water issues, a former World Bank official and current academic mentioned that “crisis, risk and uncertainty” are the three words that motivate decision-makers to act. However, decade-scale climate variability and trend-driven climate changes are phenomena characterized by creeping onset, diffuse and non-synchronous impacts, and complexity. Thus, there is a balancing act to addressing the complexity of uncertainties, while adequately assessing risk, and keeping the potential for crisis in focus without creating a “Chicken Little” situation. This presentation examines translational science approaches to three stages in the continuum from initial communication to societal action: raising awareness, building capacity, and making progress toward action. We examine the roles of scientists, knowledge brokers, decision makers, and the general public in the context of climate services. Although there is no “one size fits all” science communication method, we argue that best practices require that scientists pay particular attention to cultural and political sensitivities associated with decision contexts. We give examples from seasonal forecast communication, drought planning, climate literacy and education needs assessments, and the nexus of climate adaptation planning and uncertainty. In general, we find that constructive approaches make use of alliances with early adopters and opinion leaders, and make strong links between (a) predictions, impacts and solutions and (b) global to regional to local spatial scales. Often building partnerships for moving science information from observations to knowledge to decisions requires discussion support, a concept borrowed from Australian colleagues, which describes a multi-faceted and undervalued aspect of moving forward in adaptation planning: clarifying plausible cascades of interactions leading to potential impacts. Discussion support also fosters examination of how others confronting similar issues have both adapted well-known management strategies and developed outside-the-box ideas to move beyond “uncertainty paralysis.” Some preliminary conclusions from our work include the following: (a) iterative and ongoing engagements are necessary to build trust and bolster science credibility; (b) uncertainty, formerly a topic to avoided, forms the foundation for constructive progress in adaptation planning and improving forecast use, and (c) candid exploration of the array of uncertainties, which includes those due to modeling, institutional, policy and economic factors - with decision-making peers, science translators, and subject experts, is needed to stimulate constructive thinking on adaptation strategies. For scientists, gaining insight into how decisions are made is the most important part of scientist-stakeholder interactions. For managers, the most important factors are holistic, cross-sectoral, examination of both climate and non-climate factors affecting resources, and the diversity of public values regarding resource management.

Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) as a tool in asset allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zainol Abidin, Siti Nazifah; Mohd Jaffar, Maheran

2013-04-01

Allocation capital investment into different assets is the best way to balance the risk and reward. This can prevent from losing big amount of money. Thus, the aim of this paper is to help investors in making wise investment decision in asset allocation. This paper proposes modifying and adapting Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model. The AHP model is widely used in various fields of study that are related in decision making. The results of the case studies show that the proposed model can categorize stocks and determine the portion of capital investment. Hence, it can assist investors in decision making process and reduce the risk of loss in stock market investment.

Psychological defense, ideological hideaway, or rational reckoning? The role of uncertainty in local adaptation to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moser, S. C.

2011-12-01

As adaptation planning is rising rapidly on the agenda of decision-makers, the need for adequate information to inform those decisions is growing. Locally relevant climate change (as well as related impacts and vulnerability) information, however, is difficult to obtain and that which can be obtained carries the burden of significant scientific uncertainty. This paper aims to assess how important such uncertainty is in adaptation planning, decision-making, and related stakeholder engagement. Does uncertainty actually hinder adaptation planning? Is scientific uncertainty used to postpone decisions reflecting ideologically agendas? Or is it a convenient defense against cognitive and affective engagement with the emerging and projected - and in some cases daunting - climate change risks? To whom does such uncertainty matter and how important is it relative to other challenges decision-makers and stakeholders face? The paper draws on four sources of information to answer these questions: (1) a statewide survey of California coastal managers conducted in summer 2011, (2) years of continual engagement with, and observation of, decision-makers in local adaptation efforts, (3) findings from focus groups with lay individuals in coastal California; and (4) a review of relevant adaptation literature to guide and contextualize the empirical research. The findings entail some "inconvenient truths" for those claiming critical technical or political importance. Rather, the insights suggest that some uncertainties matter more than others; they matter at certain times, but not at others; and they matter to some decision-makers, but not to others. Implications for scientists communicating and engaging with communities are discussed.

Revisiting the Psychology of Intelligence Analysis: From Rational Actors to Adaptive Thinkers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Puvathingal, Bess J.; Hantula, Donald A.

2012-01-01

Intelligence analysis is a decision-making process rife with ambiguous, conflicting, irrelevant, important, and excessive information. The U.S. Intelligence Community is primed for psychology to lend its voice to the "analytic transformation" movement aimed at improving the quality of intelligence analysis. Traditional judgment and decision making…

Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilroy, Kristin; Mens, Marjolein; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Jeuken, Ad

2016-04-01

More frequent and intense hydrologic events under climate change are expected to enhance water security and flood risk management challenges worldwide. Traditional planning approaches must be adapted to address climate change and develop solutions with an appropriate level of robustness and flexibility. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) method is a novel planning approach embodying a suite of complementary methods, including decision scaling and adaptation pathways. Decision scaling offers a bottom-up approach to assess risk and tailors the complexity of the analysis to the problem at hand and the available capacity. Through adaptation pathway,s an array of future strategies towards climate robustness are developed, ranging in flexibility and immediacy of investments. Flexible pathways include transfer points to other strategies to ensure that the system can be adapted if future conditions vary from those expected. CRIDA combines these two approaches in a stakeholder driven process which guides decision makers through the planning and decision process, taking into account how the confidence in the available science, the consequences in the system, and the capacity of institutions should influence strategy selection. In this presentation, we will explain the CRIDA method and compare it to existing planning processes, such as the US Army Corps of Engineers Principles and Guidelines as well as Integrated Water Resources Management Planning. Then, we will apply the approach to a hypothetical case study for the Waas Region, a large downstream river basin facing rapid development threatened by increased flood risks. Through the case study, we will demonstrate how a stakeholder driven process can be used to evaluate system robustness to climate change; develop adaptation pathways for multiple objectives and criteria; and illustrate how varying levels of confidence, consequences, and capacity would play a role in the decision making process, specifically in regards to the level of robustness and flexibility in the selected strategy. This work will equip practitioners and decision makers with an example of a structured process for decision making under climate uncertainty that can be scaled as needed to the problem at hand. This presentation builds further on another submitted abstract "Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): A novel practical guidance for Climate Resilient Investments and Planning" by Jeuken et al.

An Evolving Simulation/Gaming Process to Facilitate Adaptive Watershed Management in Northern Mountainous Thailand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnaud, Cecile; Promburom, Tanya; Trebuil, Guy; Bousquet, Francois

2007-01-01

The decentralization of natural resource management provides an opportunity for communities to increase their participation in related decision making. Research should propose adapted methodologies enabling the numerous stakeholders of these complex socioecological settings to define their problems and identify agreed-on solutions. This article…

The Relationship between Career Adaptability, Person and Situation Variables, and Career Concerns in Young Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Creed, Peter A.; Fallon, Tracy; Hood, Michelle

2009-01-01

We surveyed 245 first-year university students using measures of career concerns, career adaptability (career planning, career exploration, self-exploration, decision-making, self-regulation), goal-orientation (learning, performance-prove, performance-avoid) and social support (family, friends, significant others), and tested: (a) whether the…

The Role of Bridging Organizations in Enhancing Ecosystem Services and Facilitating Adaptive Management of Social-Ecological Systems

EPA Science Inventory

Adaptive management is an approach for monitoring the response of ecological systems to different policies and practices and attempts to reduce the inherent uncertainty in ecological systems via system monitoring and iterative decision making and experimentation (Holling 1978). M...

Expanded envelope concepts for aircraft control-element failure detection and identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weiss, Jerold L.; Hsu, John Y.

1988-01-01

The purpose of this effort was to develop and demonstrate concepts for expanding the envelope of failure detection and isolation (FDI) algorithms for aircraft-path failures. An algorithm which uses analytic-redundancy in the form of aerodynamic force and moment balance equations was used. Because aircraft-path FDI uses analytical models, there is a tradeoff between accuracy and the ability to detect and isolate failures. For single flight condition operation, design and analysis methods are developed to deal with this robustness problem. When the departure from the single flight condition is significant, algorithm adaptation is necessary. Adaptation requirements for the residual generation portion of the FDI algorithm are interpreted as the need for accurate, large-motion aero-models, over a broad range of velocity and altitude conditions. For the decision-making part of the algorithm, adaptation may require modifications to filtering operations, thresholds, and projection vectors that define the various hypothesis tests performed in the decision mechanism. Methods of obtaining and evaluating adequate residual generation and decision-making designs have been developed. The application of the residual generation ideas to a high-performance fighter is demonstrated by developing adaptive residuals for the AFTI-F-16 and simulating their behavior under a variety of maneuvers using the results of a NASA F-16 simulation.

The story of rising voices: Facilitating collaboration between indigenous and western ways of knowing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maldonado, Julie; Lazrus, Heather; Bennett, Shiloh-Kay; Chief, Karletta; Dhillon, Carla May; Gough, Bob; Kruger, Linda; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Petrovic, Stefan; Whyte, Kyle P.; Companion, Michele; Chaiken, Miriam S.

2016-01-01

Indigenous community self-determination, cultures, and ways of life are at high risk from climate change impacts and ecological dispossession. Partnerships between experts with backgrounds in Indigenous and western knowledge may be productive and effective ways to reduce vulnerability and foster resilience. This chapter examines collaborations among scientific and Native American, Alaska Native, and Pacific Island communities to support climate solutions. We draw examples from the "Rising Voices: Collaborative Science with Indigenous Knowledge for Climate Solutions" program (Rising Voices) to examine how boundary organizations function cross-culturally to increase communities' adaptive capacity through knowledge exchange, as well as building the decision-making capacity needed to exercise sovereignty and make adaptive decisions in a changing climate.

Informing the Gestalt: An Ethical Framework for Allocating Scarce Federal Public Health and Medical Resources to States During Disasters

PubMed Central

Knebel, Ann R.; Sharpe, Virginia A.; Danis, Marion; Toomey, Lauren M.; Knickerbocker, Deborah K.

2017-01-01

During catastrophic disasters, government leaders must decide how to efficiently and effectively allocate scarce public health and medical resources. The literature about triage decision making at the individual patient level is substantial, and the National Response Framework provides guidance about the distribution of responsibilities between federal and state governments. However, little has been written about the decision-making process of federal leaders in disaster situations when resources are not sufficient to meet the needs of several states simultaneously. We offer an ethical framework and logic model for decision making in such circumstances. We adapted medical triage and the federalism principle to the decision-making process for allocating scarce federal public health and medical resources. We believe that the logic model provides a values-based framework that can inform the gestalt during the iterative decision process used by federal leaders as they allocate scarce resources to states during catastrophic disasters. PMID:24612854

Adaptive sampling of information in perceptual decision-making.

PubMed

Cassey, Thomas C; Evens, David R; Bogacz, Rafal; Marshall, James A R; Ludwig, Casimir J H

2013-01-01

In many perceptual and cognitive decision-making problems, humans sample multiple noisy information sources serially, and integrate the sampled information to make an overall decision. We derive the optimal decision procedure for two-alternative choice tasks in which the different options are sampled one at a time, sources vary in the quality of the information they provide, and the available time is fixed. To maximize accuracy, the optimal observer allocates time to sampling different information sources in proportion to their noise levels. We tested human observers in a corresponding perceptual decision-making task. Observers compared the direction of two random dot motion patterns that were triggered only when fixated. Observers allocated more time to the noisier pattern, in a manner that correlated with their sensory uncertainty about the direction of the patterns. There were several differences between the optimal observer predictions and human behaviour. These differences point to a number of other factors, beyond the quality of the currently available sources of information, that influences the sampling strategy.

Critical role for the mediodorsal thalamus in permitting rapid reward-guided updating in stochastic reward environments

PubMed Central

Chakraborty, Subhojit; Kolling, Nils; Walton, Mark E; Mitchell, Anna S

2016-01-01

Adaptive decision-making uses information gained when exploring alternative options to decide whether to update the current choice strategy. Magnocellular mediodorsal thalamus (MDmc) supports adaptive decision-making, but its causal contribution is not well understood. Monkeys with excitotoxic MDmc damage were tested on probabilistic three-choice decision-making tasks. They could learn and track the changing values in object-reward associations, but they were severely impaired at updating choices after reversals in reward contingencies or when there were multiple options associated with reward. These deficits were not caused by perseveration or insensitivity to negative feedback though. Instead, monkeys with MDmc lesions exhibited an inability to use reward to promote choice repetition after switching to an alternative option due to a diminished influence of recent past choices and the last outcome to guide future behavior. Together, these data suggest MDmc allows for the rapid discovery and persistence with rewarding options, particularly in uncertain or changing environments. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.13588.001 PMID:27136677

Professional judgement and decision-making in adventure sports coaching: the role of interaction.

PubMed

Collins, Loel; Collins, Dave

2016-01-01

This qualitative study presents the view that coaching practice places demands on the coach's adaptability and flexibility. These requirements for being adaptive and flexible are met through a careful process of professional judgement and decision-making based on context-appropriate bodies of knowledge. Adventure sports coaches were selected for study on the basis that adventure sports create a hyper-dynamic environment in which these features can be examined. Thematic analysis revealed that coaches were generally well informed and practised with respect to the technical aspects of their sporting disciplines. Less positively, however, they often relied on ad hoc contextualisation of generalised theories of coaching practice to respond to the hyper-dynamic environments encountered in adventure sports. We propose that coaching practice reflects the demands of the environment, individual learning needs of the students and the task at hand. Together, these factors outwardly resemble a constraints-led approach but, we suggest, actually reflect manipulation of these parameters from a cognitive rather than an ecological perspective. This process is facilitated by a refined judgement and decision-making process, sophisticated epistemology and an explicit interaction of coaching components.

Decision-making in honeybee swarms based on quality and distance information of candidate nest sites.

PubMed

Laomettachit, Teeraphan; Termsaithong, Teerasit; Sae-Tang, Anuwat; Duangphakdee, Orawan

2015-01-07

In the nest-site selection process of honeybee swarms, an individual bee performs a waggle dance to communicate information about direction, quality, and distance of a discovered site to other bees at the swarm. Initially, different groups of bees dance to represent different potential sites, but eventually the swarm usually reaches an agreement for only one site. Here, we model the nest-site selection process in honeybee swarms of Apis mellifera and show how the swarms make adaptive decisions based on a trade-off between the quality and distance to candidate nest sites. We use bifurcation analysis and stochastic simulations to reveal that the swarm's site distance preference is moderate>near>far when the swarms choose between low quality sites. However, the distance preference becomes near>moderate>far when the swarms choose between high quality sites. Our simulations also indicate that swarms with large population size prefer nearer sites and, in addition, are more adaptive at making decisions based on available information compared to swarms with smaller population size. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

European Portuguese adaptation and validation of dilemmas used to assess moral decision-making.

PubMed

Fernandes, Carina; Gonçalves, Ana Ribeiro; Pasion, Rita; Ferreira-Santos, Fernando; Paiva, Tiago Oliveira; Melo E Castro, Joana; Barbosa, Fernando; Martins, Isabel Pavão; Marques-Teixeira, João

2018-03-01

Objective To adapt and validate a widely used set of moral dilemmas to European Portuguese, which can be applied to assess decision-making. Moreover, the classical formulation of the dilemmas was compared with a more focused moral probe. Finally, a shorter version of the moral scenarios was tested. Methods The Portuguese version of the set of moral dilemmas was tested in 53 individuals from several regions of Portugal. In a second study, an alternative way of questioning on moral dilemmas was tested in 41 participants. Finally, the shorter version of the moral dilemmas was tested in 137 individuals. Results Results evidenced no significant differences between English and Portuguese versions. Also, asking whether actions are "morally acceptable" elicited less utilitarian responses than the original question, although without reaching statistical significance. Finally, all tested versions of moral dilemmas exhibited the same pattern of responses, suggesting that the fundamental elements to the moral decision-making were preserved. Conclusions We found evidence of cross-cultural validity for moral dilemmas. However, the moral focus might affect utilitarian/deontological judgments.

Adapting forest health assessments to changing perspectives on threats--a case example from Sweden.

PubMed

Wulff, Sören; Lindelöw, Åke; Lundin, Lars; Hansson, Per; Axelsson, Anna-Lena; Barklund, Pia; Wijk, Sture; Ståhl, Göran

2012-04-01

A revised Swedish forest health assessment system is presented. The assessment system is composed of several interacting components which target information needs for strategic and operational decision making and accommodate a continuously expanding knowledge base. The main motivation for separating information for strategic and operational decision making is that major damage outbreaks are often scattered throughout the landscape. Generally, large-scale inventories (such as national forest inventories) cannot provide adequate information for mitigation measures. In addition to broad monitoring programs that provide time-series information on known damaging agents and their effects, there is also a need for local and regional inventories adapted to specific damage events. While information for decision making is the major focus of the health assessment system, the system also contributes to expanding the knowledge base of forest conditions. For example, the integrated monitoring programs provide a better understanding of ecological processes linked to forest health. The new health assessment system should be able to respond to the need for quick and reliable information and thus will be an important part of the future monitoring of Swedish forests.

Recovery and Resilience After a Nuclear Power Plant Disaster: A Medical Decision model for Managing an Effective, Timely, and Balanced Response

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coleman, C. Norman; Blumenthal, Daniel J.

2013-05-01

Based on experiences in Tokyo responding to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant crisis, a real-time, medical decision model is presented by which to make key health-related decisions given the central role of health and medical issues in such disasters. Focus is on response and recovery activities that are safe, timely, effective, and well-organized. This approach empowers on-site decision makers to make interim decisions without undue delay using readily available and high-level scientific, medical, communication, and policy expertise. Key features of this approach include ongoing assessment, consultation, information, and adaption to the changing conditions. This medical decision model presented ismore » compatible with the existing US National Response Framework structure.« less

The role of adaptive management as an operational approach for resource management agencies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, B.L.

1999-01-01

In making resource management decisions, agencies use a variety of approaches that involve different levels of political concern, historical precedence, data analyses, and evaluation. Traditional decision-making approaches have often failed to achieve objectives for complex problems in large systems, such as the Everglades or the Colorado River. I contend that adaptive management is the best approach available to agencies for addressing this type of complex problem, although its success has been limited thus far. Traditional decision-making approaches have been fairly successful at addressing relatively straightforward problems in small, replicated systems, such as management of trout in small streams or pulp production in forests. However, this success may be jeopardized as more users place increasing demands on these systems. Adaptive management has received little attention from agencies for addressing problems in small-scale systems, but I suggest that it may be a useful approach for creating a holistic view of common problems and developing guidelines that can then be used in simpler, more traditional approaches to management. Although adaptive management may be more expensive to initiate than traditional approaches, it may be less expensive in the long run if it leads to more effective management. The overall goal of adaptive management is not to maintain an optimal condition of the resource, but to develop an optimal management capacity. This is accomplished by maintaining ecological resilience that allows the system to react to inevitable stresses, and generating flexibility in institutions and stakeholders that allows managers to react when conditions change. The result is that, rather than managing for a single, optimal state, we manage within a range of acceptable outcomes while avoiding catastrophes and irreversible negative effects. Copyright ?? 1999 by The Resilience Alliance.

Exploring Hospice Decisions: The Road from the Institute on Aging and Social Work to an ARRA Challenge Grant

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Waldrop, Deborah

2014-01-01

Decisions about treatment and options for care at the end stage of an advanced chronic illness are important determinants of the quality of a person's death and of how family members adapt in bereavement. This article describes the steps taken to secure federal funding to study how people make the decision to enroll in hospice. The National…

Feedback Blunting: Total Sleep Deprivation Impairs Decision Making that Requires Updating Based on Feedback

PubMed Central

Whitney, Paul; Hinson, John M.; Jackson, Melinda L.; Van Dongen, Hans P.A.

2015-01-01

Study Objectives: To better understand the sometimes catastrophic effects of sleep loss on naturalistic decision making, we investigated effects of sleep deprivation on decision making in a reversal learning paradigm requiring acquisition and updating of information based on outcome feedback. Design: Subjects were randomized to a sleep deprivation or control condition, with performance testing at baseline, after 2 nights of total sleep deprivation (or rested control), and following 2 nights of recovery sleep. Subjects performed a decision task involving initial learning of go and no go response sets followed by unannounced reversal of contingencies, requiring use of outcome feedback for decisions. A working memory scanning task and psychomotor vigilance test were also administered. Setting: Six consecutive days and nights in a controlled laboratory environment with continuous behavioral monitoring. Subjects: Twenty-six subjects (22–40 y of age; 10 women). Interventions: Thirteen subjects were randomized to a 62-h total sleep deprivation condition; the others were controls. Results: Unlike controls, sleep deprived subjects had difficulty with initial learning of go and no go stimuli sets and had profound impairment adapting to reversal. Skin conductance responses to outcome feedback were diminished, indicating blunted affective reactions to feedback accompanying sleep deprivation. Working memory scanning performance was not significantly affected by sleep deprivation. And although sleep deprived subjects showed expected attentional lapses, these could not account for impairments in reversal learning decision making. Conclusions: Sleep deprivation is particularly problematic for decision making involving uncertainty and unexpected change. Blunted reactions to feedback while sleep deprived underlie failures to adapt to uncertainty and changing contingencies. Thus, an error may register, but with diminished effect because of reduced affective valence of the feedback or because the feedback is not cognitively bound with the choice. This has important implications for understanding and managing sleep loss-induced cognitive impairment in emergency response, disaster management, military operations, and other dynamic real-world settings with uncertain outcomes and imperfect information. Citation: Whitney P, Hinson JM, Jackson ML, Van Dongen HPA. Feedback blunting: total sleep deprivation impairs decision making that requires updating based on feedback. SLEEP 2015;38(5):745–754. PMID:25515105

Feedback Blunting: Total Sleep Deprivation Impairs Decision Making that Requires Updating Based on Feedback.

PubMed

Whitney, Paul; Hinson, John M; Jackson, Melinda L; Van Dongen, Hans P A

2015-05-01

To better understand the sometimes catastrophic effects of sleep loss on naturalistic decision making, we investigated effects of sleep deprivation on decision making in a reversal learning paradigm requiring acquisition and updating of information based on outcome feedback. Subjects were randomized to a sleep deprivation or control condition, with performance testing at baseline, after 2 nights of total sleep deprivation (or rested control), and following 2 nights of recovery sleep. Subjects performed a decision task involving initial learning of go and no go response sets followed by unannounced reversal of contingencies, requiring use of outcome feedback for decisions. A working memory scanning task and psychomotor vigilance test were also administered. Six consecutive days and nights in a controlled laboratory environment with continuous behavioral monitoring. Twenty-six subjects (22-40 y of age; 10 women). Thirteen subjects were randomized to a 62-h total sleep deprivation condition; the others were controls. Unlike controls, sleep deprived subjects had difficulty with initial learning of go and no go stimuli sets and had profound impairment adapting to reversal. Skin conductance responses to outcome feedback were diminished, indicating blunted affective reactions to feedback accompanying sleep deprivation. Working memory scanning performance was not significantly affected by sleep deprivation. And although sleep deprived subjects showed expected attentional lapses, these could not account for impairments in reversal learning decision making. Sleep deprivation is particularly problematic for decision making involving uncertainty and unexpected change. Blunted reactions to feedback while sleep deprived underlie failures to adapt to uncertainty and changing contingencies. Thus, an error may register, but with diminished effect because of reduced affective valence of the feedback or because the feedback is not cognitively bound with the choice. This has important implications for understanding and managing sleep loss-induced cognitive impairment in emergency response, disaster management, military operations, and other dynamic real-world settings with uncertain outcomes and imperfect information. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Relevance of behavioral and social models to the study of consumer energy decision making and behavior

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burns, B.A.

This report reviews social and behavioral science models and techniques for their possible use in understanding and predicting consumer energy decision making and behaviors. A number of models and techniques have been developed that address different aspects of the decision process, use different theoretical bases and approaches, and have been aimed at different audiences. Three major areas of discussion were selected: (1) models of adaptation to social change, (2) decision making and choice, and (3) diffusion of innovation. Within these three areas, the contributions of psychologists, sociologists, economists, marketing researchers, and others were reviewed. Five primary components of the modelsmore » were identified and compared. The components are: (1) situational characteristics, (2) product characteristics, (3) individual characteristics, (4) social influences, and (5) the interaction or decision rules. The explicit use of behavioral and social science models in energy decision-making and behavior studies has been limited. Examples are given of a small number of energy studies which applied and tested existing models in studying the adoption of energy conservation behaviors and technologies, and solar technology.« less

Multi-alternative decision-making with non-stationary inputs.

PubMed

Nunes, Luana F; Gurney, Kevin

2016-08-01

One of the most widely implemented models for multi-alternative decision-making is the multihypothesis sequential probability ratio test (MSPRT). It is asymptotically optimal, straightforward to implement, and has found application in modelling biological decision-making. However, the MSPRT is limited in application to discrete ('trial-based'), non-time-varying scenarios. By contrast, real world situations will be continuous and entail stimulus non-stationarity. In these circumstances, decision-making mechanisms (like the MSPRT) which work by accumulating evidence, must be able to discard outdated evidence which becomes progressively irrelevant. To address this issue, we introduce a new decision mechanism by augmenting the MSPRT with a rectangular integration window and a transparent decision boundary. This allows selection and de-selection of options as their evidence changes dynamically. Performance was enhanced by adapting the window size to problem difficulty. Further, we present an alternative windowing method which exponentially decays evidence and does not significantly degrade performance, while greatly reducing the memory resources necessary. The methods presented have proven successful at allowing for the MSPRT algorithm to function in a non-stationary environment.

HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT FOR DECISION MAKING IN LATIN AMERICA: GOOD PRACTICE PRINCIPLES.

PubMed

Pichon-Riviere, Andrés; Soto, Natalie C; Augustovski, Federico Ariel; García Martí, Sebastián; Sampietro-Colom, Laura

2018-06-11

The aim of this study was to identify good practice principles for health technology assessment (HTA) that are the most relevant and of highest priority for application in Latin America and to identify potential barriers to their implementation in the region. HTA good practice principles proposed at the international level were identified and then explored during a deliberative process in a forum of assessors, funders, and product manufacturers. Forty-two representatives from ten Latin American countries participated. Good practice principles proposed at the international level were considered valid and potentially relevant to Latin America. Five principles were identified as priority and with the greatest potential to be strengthened at this time: transparency in the production of HTA, involvement of relevant stakeholders in the HTA process, mechanisms to appeal decisions, clear priority-setting processes in HTA, and a clear link between HTA and decision making. The main challenge identified was to find a balance between the application of these principles and the available resources in a way that would not detract from the production of reports and adaptation to the needs of decision makers. The main recommendation was to progress gradually in strengthening HTA and its link to decision making by developing appropriate processes for each country, without trying to impose, in the short-term, standards taken from examples at the international level without adequate adaptation of these to local contexts.

Modelling human decision-making in coupled human and natural systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feola, G.

2012-12-01

A solid understanding of human decision-making is essential to analyze the complexity of coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) and inform policies to promote resilience in the face of environmental change. Human decisions drive and/or mediate the interactions and feedbacks, and contribute to the heterogeneity and non-linearity that characterize CHANS. However, human decision-making is usually over-simplistically modeled, whereby human agents are represented deterministically either as dumb or clairvoyant decision-makers. Decision-making models fall short in the integration of both environmental and human behavioral drivers, and concerning the latter, tend to focus on only one category, e.g. economic, cultural, or psychological. Furthermore, these models render a linear decision-making process and therefore fail to account for the recursive co-evolutionary dynamics in CHANS. As a result, these models constitute only a weak basis for policy-making. There is therefore scope and an urgent need for better approaches to human decision-making, to produce the knowledge that can inform vulnerability reduction policies in the face of environmental change. This presentation synthesizes the current state-of-the-art of modelling human decision-making in CHANS, with particular reference to agricultural systems, and delineates how the above mentioned shortcomings can be overcome. Through examples from research on pesticide use and adaptation to climate change, both based on the integrative agent-centered framework (Feola and Binder, 2010), the approach for an improved understanding of human agents in CHANS are illustrated. This entails: integrative approach, focus on behavioral dynamics more than states, feedbacks between individual and system levels, and openness to heterogeneity.

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Identifying Decision-Makers’ Science Needs for Adaptation to Climate-Related Impacts on Forest Ecosystem Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordon, E.; Lukas, J.

2009-12-01

Through the Western Water Assessment RISA program, we are conducting a research project that will produce science synthesis information to help local, state, and federal decision-makers in Colorado and Wyoming develop adaptation strategies to deal with climate-related threats to forest ecosystem services, in particular bark beetle infestations and stand-replacing wildfires. We begin by using the problem orientation framework, a policy sciences methodology, to understand how decision-makers can most effectively address policy problems that threaten the attainment of socially accepted goals. By applying this framework to the challenges facing decision-makers, we more accurately identify specific areas where scientific research can improve decision-making. WWA researchers will next begin to connect decision-makers with relevant scientific literature and identify specific areas of future scientific research that will be most effective at addressing their needs.

Decision strategies for handling the uncertainty of future extreme rainfall under the influence of climate change.

PubMed

Gregersen, I B; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K

2012-01-01

Several extraordinary rainfall events have occurred in Denmark within the last few years. For each event, problems in urban areas occurred as the capacity of the existing drainage systems were exceeded. Adaptation to climate change is necessary but also very challenging as urban drainage systems are characterized by long technical lifetimes and high, unrecoverable construction costs. One of the most important barriers for the initiation and implementation of the adaptation strategies is therefore the uncertainty when predicting the magnitude of the extreme rainfall in the future. This challenge is explored through the application and discussion of three different theoretical decision support strategies: the precautionary principle, the minimax strategy and Bayesian decision support. The reviewed decision support strategies all proved valuable for addressing the identified uncertainties, at best applied together as they all yield information that improved decision making and thus enabled more robust decisions.

Decision making in recurrent neuronal circuits.

PubMed

Wang, Xiao-Jing

2008-10-23

Decision making has recently emerged as a central theme in neurophysiological studies of cognition, and experimental and computational work has led to the proposal of a cortical circuit mechanism of elemental decision computations. This mechanism depends on slow recurrent synaptic excitation balanced by fast feedback inhibition, which not only instantiates attractor states for forming categorical choices but also long transients for gradually accumulating evidence in favor of or against alternative options. Such a circuit endowed with reward-dependent synaptic plasticity is able to produce adaptive choice behavior. While decision threshold is a core concept for reaction time tasks, it can be dissociated from a general decision rule. Moreover, perceptual decisions and value-based economic choices are described within a unified framework in which probabilistic choices result from irregular neuronal activity as well as iterative interactions of a decision maker with an uncertain environment or other unpredictable decision makers in a social group.

Making Consumer Choices. Secondary Learning Guide 6. Project Connect. Linking Self-Family-Work.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Emily Hall Tremaine Foundation, Inc., Hartford, CT.

This competency-based secondary learning guide on making consumer choices is part of a series that are adaptations of guides developed for adult consumer and homemaking education programs. The guides provide students with experiences that help them learn to do the following: make decisions; use creative approaches to solve problems; establish…

Temporal competition between differentiation programs determines cell fate choice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuchina, Anna; Espinar, Lorena; Cagatay, Tolga; Balbin, Alejandro; Alvarado, Alma; Garcia-Ojalvo, Jordi; Suel, Gurol

2011-03-01

During pluripotent differentiation, cells adopt one of several distinct fates. The dynamics of this decision-making process are poorly understood, since cell fate choice may be governed by interactions between differentiation programs that are active at the same time. We studied the dynamics of decision-making in the model organism Bacillus subtilis by simultaneously measuring the activities of competing differentiation programs (sporulation and competence) in single cells. We discovered a precise switch-like point of cell fate choice previously hidden by cell-cell variability. Engineered artificial crosslinks between competence and sporulation circuits revealed that the precision of this choice is generated by temporal competition between the key players of two differentiation programs. Modeling suggests that variable progression towards a switch-like decision might represent a general strategy to maximize adaptability and robustness of cellular decision-making.

Evidence Accumulator or Decision Threshold – Which Cortical Mechanism are We Observing?

PubMed Central

Simen, Patrick

2012-01-01

Most psychological models of perceptual decision making are of the accumulation-to-threshold variety. The neural basis of accumulation in parietal and prefrontal cortex is therefore a topic of great interest in neuroscience. In contrast, threshold mechanisms have received less attention, and their neural basis has usually been sought in subcortical structures. Here I analyze a model of a decision threshold that can be implemented in the same cortical areas as evidence accumulators, and whose behavior bears on two open questions in decision neuroscience: (1) When ramping activity is observed in a brain region during decision making, does it reflect evidence accumulation? (2) Are changes in speed-accuracy tradeoffs and response biases more likely to be achieved by changes in thresholds, or in accumulation rates and starting points? The analysis suggests that task-modulated ramping activity, by itself, is weak evidence that a brain area mediates evidence accumulation as opposed to threshold readout; and that signs of modulated accumulation are as likely to indicate threshold adaptation as adaptation of starting points and accumulation rates. These conclusions imply that how thresholds are modeled can dramatically impact accumulator-based interpretations of this data. PMID:22737136

Ag2S atomic switch-based `tug of war' for decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lutz, C.; Hasegawa, T.; Chikyow, T.

2016-07-01

For a computing process such as making a decision, a software controlled chip of several transistors is necessary. Inspired by how a single cell amoeba decides its movements, the theoretical `tug of war' computing model was proposed but not yet implemented in an analogue device suitable for integrated circuits. Based on this model, we now developed a new electronic element for decision making processes, which will have no need for prior programming. The devices are based on the growth and shrinkage of Ag filaments in α-Ag2+δS gap-type atomic switches. Here we present the adapted device design and the new materials. We demonstrate the basic `tug of war' operation by IV-measurements and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) observation. These devices could be the base for a CMOS-free new computer architecture.For a computing process such as making a decision, a software controlled chip of several transistors is necessary. Inspired by how a single cell amoeba decides its movements, the theoretical `tug of war' computing model was proposed but not yet implemented in an analogue device suitable for integrated circuits. Based on this model, we now developed a new electronic element for decision making processes, which will have no need for prior programming. The devices are based on the growth and shrinkage of Ag filaments in α-Ag2+δS gap-type atomic switches. Here we present the adapted device design and the new materials. We demonstrate the basic `tug of war' operation by IV-measurements and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) observation. These devices could be the base for a CMOS-free new computer architecture. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available. See DOI: 10.1039/c6nr00690f

An Analysis of Factors Affecting Teachers' Irrational Beliefs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tanhan, Fuat

2014-01-01

The survival of living beings largely depends on their abilities to recognize and adapt to their environment. This is closely related to the cognitive processes by which information is processed. As they have decisive influence on the outcomes of education, teachers who have the ability to think rationally and make rational decisions are integral…

Lost in search: (Mal-)adaptation to probabilistic decision environments in children and adults.

PubMed

Betsch, Tilmann; Lehmann, Anne; Lindow, Stefanie; Lang, Anna; Schoemann, Martin

2016-02-01

Adaptive decision making in probabilistic environments requires individuals to use probabilities as weights in predecisional information searches and/or when making subsequent choices. Within a child-friendly computerized environment (Mousekids), we tracked 205 children's (105 children 5-6 years of age and 100 children 9-10 years of age) and 103 adults' (age range: 21-22 years) search behaviors and decisions under different probability dispersions (.17; .33, .83 vs. .50, .67, .83) and constraint conditions (instructions to limit search: yes vs. no). All age groups limited their depth of search when instructed to do so and when probability dispersion was high (range: .17-.83). Unlike adults, children failed to use probabilities as weights for their searches, which were largely not systematic. When examining choices, however, elementary school children (unlike preschoolers) systematically used probabilities as weights in their decisions. This suggests that an intuitive understanding of probabilities and the capacity to use them as weights during integration is not a sufficient condition for applying simple selective search strategies that place one's focus on weight distributions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved.

Age-related differences in decision-making for digital escape route signage under strenuous emergency conditions of tilted passenger ships.

PubMed

Kwee-Meier, Sonja Th; Mertens, Alexander; Schlick, Christopher M

2017-03-01

This age-differentiated study investigated preferences for new digital, situation-adaptive escape route signage with informative and flashing elements under simulated emergency conditions of tilted passenger ships. The decision-making behaviour of 26 young (20-30 years) and 26 elderly (60-77 years) participants was observed in four conditions varying in applied stressors and in level versus uphill walking at 7° and 14°. In line with previous studies, decisions of young participants were significantly influenced by flashing elements on signs. In contrast, elderly participants based their decisions significantly stronger on integrated information about the sign's updatedness and reported irritation by flashing elements. These preferences were also persistent under increased mental, emotional and physical strain, evaluated by ratings and (psycho-)physiological measures. The findings demonstrate the importance to carefully design digital, situation-adaptive signage for passenger ships in a way that it not only attracts attention but also inspires trust especially for the elderly population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive awareness for personal and small group decision making.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perano, Kenneth J.; Tucker, Steve; Pancerella, Carmen M.

2003-12-01

Many situations call for the use of sensors monitoring physiological and environmental data. In order to use the large amounts of sensor data to affect decision making, we are coupling heterogeneous sensors with small, light-weight processors, other powerful computers, wireless communications, and embedded intelligent software. The result is an adaptive awareness and warning tool, which provides both situation awareness and personal awareness to individuals and teams. Central to this tool is a sensor-independent architecture, which combines both software agents and a reusable core software framework that manages the available hardware resources and provides services to the agents. Agents can recognizemore » cues from the data, warn humans about situations, and act as decision-making aids. Within the agents, self-organizing maps (SOMs) are used to process physiological data in order to provide personal awareness. We have employed a novel clustering algorithm to train the SOM to discern individual body states and activities. This awareness tool has broad applicability to emergency teams, military squads, military medics, individual exercise and fitness monitoring, health monitoring for sick and elderly persons, and environmental monitoring in public places. This report discusses our hardware decisions, software framework, and a pilot awareness tool, which has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories.« less

The Development of Adaptive Conformity in Young Children: Effects of Uncertainty and Consensus

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morgan, Thomas J. H.; Laland, Kevin N.; Harris, Paul L.

2015-01-01

Human culture relies on extensive use of social transmission, which must be integrated with independently acquired (i.e. asocial) information for effective decision-making. Formal evolutionary theory predicts that natural selection should favor adaptive learning strategies, including a bias to copy when uncertain, and a bias to disproportionately…

Heritage Literacy: Adoption, Adaptation, and Alienation of Multimodal Literacy Tools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rumsey, Suzanne Kesler

2009-01-01

This article presents the concept of heritage literacy, a decision-making process by which people adopt, adapt, or alienate themselves from tools and literacies passed on between generations of people. In an auto-ethnographic study, four generations of a single family and Amish participants from the surrounding community were interviewed to…

Heuristic-Leadership Model: Adapting to Current Training and Changing Times.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Danielson, Mary Ann

A model was developed for training individuals to adapt better to the changing work environment by focusing on the subordinate to supervisor relationship and providing a heuristic approach to leadership. The model emphasizes a heuristic approach to decision-making through the active participation of both members of the dyad. The demand among…

Forest Management Under Uncertainty for Multiple Bird Population Objectives

Treesearch

Clinton T. Moore; W. Todd Plummer; Michael J. Conroy

2005-01-01

We advocate adaptive programs of decision making and monitoring for the management of forest birds when responses by populations to management, and particularly management trade-offs among populations, are uncertain. Models are necessary components of adaptive management. Under this approach, uncertainty about the behavior of a managed system is explicitly captured in...

Exploring Preservice Elementary Teachers' Critique and Adaptation of Science Curriculum Materials in Respect to Socioscientific Issues

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forbes, Cory T.; Davis, Elizabeth A.

2008-01-01

The work presented here represents a preliminary effort undertaken to address the role of teachers in supporting students' learning and decision-making about socioscientific issues (SSI) by characterizing preservice elementary teachers' critique and adaptation of SSI-based science curriculum materials and identifying factors that serve to mediate…

Improving access to shared decision-making for Hispanics/Latinos with inadequately controlled type 2 diabetes mellitus

PubMed Central

Davidson, Jaime A; Rosales, Aracely; Shillington, Alicia C; Bailey, Robert A; Kabir, Chris; Umpierrez, Guillermo E

2015-01-01

Purpose To describe the cultural and linguistic adaptation and Spanish translation of an English-language patient decision aid (PDA) for use in supporting shared decision-making in Hispanics/Latinos with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), a group at a high risk for complications. Patients and methods A steering committee of endocrinologists, a primary care physician, a certified diabetes educator, and a dietician, each with extensive experience in providing care to Hispanics/Latinos was convened to assess a PDA developed for English-speaking patients with T2DM. English content was reviewed for cultural sensitivity and appropriateness for a Hispanic/Latino population. A consensus-building process and iterative version edits incorporated clinician perspectives. The content was adapted to be consistent with traditional Hispanic/Latino cultural communication precepts (eg, avoidance of hostile confrontation; value for warm interaction; respect for authority; value of family support for decisions). The PDA was translated by native-speaking individuals with diabetes expertise. Results The PDA underwent testing during cognitive interviews with ten Spanish-speaking Hispanics/Latinos with T2DM to ensure that the content is reflective of the experience, understanding, and language Hispanic/Latino patients use to describe diabetes and treatment. Content edits were made to assure a literacy level appropriate to the audience, and the PDA was produced for online video dissemination. Conclusion High-quality, well-developed tools to facilitate shared decision-making in populations with limited access to culturally sensitive information can narrow gaps and align care with individual patient preferences. A newly developed PDA is available for shared decision-making that provides culturally appropriate treatment information for inadequately controlled Hispanics/Latinos with T2DM. The impact on the overall health of patients and care management of T2DM requires further study. PMID:25995623

Sensorimotor Learning Biases Choice Behavior: A Learning Neural Field Model for Decision Making

PubMed Central

Schöner, Gregor; Gail, Alexander

2012-01-01

According to a prominent view of sensorimotor processing in primates, selection and specification of possible actions are not sequential operations. Rather, a decision for an action emerges from competition between different movement plans, which are specified and selected in parallel. For action choices which are based on ambiguous sensory input, the frontoparietal sensorimotor areas are considered part of the common underlying neural substrate for selection and specification of action. These areas have been shown capable of encoding alternative spatial motor goals in parallel during movement planning, and show signatures of competitive value-based selection among these goals. Since the same network is also involved in learning sensorimotor associations, competitive action selection (decision making) should not only be driven by the sensory evidence and expected reward in favor of either action, but also by the subject's learning history of different sensorimotor associations. Previous computational models of competitive neural decision making used predefined associations between sensory input and corresponding motor output. Such hard-wiring does not allow modeling of how decisions are influenced by sensorimotor learning or by changing reward contingencies. We present a dynamic neural field model which learns arbitrary sensorimotor associations with a reward-driven Hebbian learning algorithm. We show that the model accurately simulates the dynamics of action selection with different reward contingencies, as observed in monkey cortical recordings, and that it correctly predicted the pattern of choice errors in a control experiment. With our adaptive model we demonstrate how network plasticity, which is required for association learning and adaptation to new reward contingencies, can influence choice behavior. The field model provides an integrated and dynamic account for the operations of sensorimotor integration, working memory and action selection required for decision making in ambiguous choice situations. PMID:23166483

Ethical decision-making in hospice care.

PubMed

Walker, Andreas; Breitsameter, Christof

2015-05-01

Hospices are based on a holistic approach which places the physical, psychological, social and spiritual welfare of their patients at the forefront of their work. Furthermore, they draw up their own mission statements which they are at pains to follow and seek to conduct their work in accordance with codes of ethics and standards of care. Our study researched what form the processes and degrees of latitude in decision-making take in practice when questions of an ethical and ethically relevant nature arise. We used a qualitative approach. Data collection and evaluation was based on the methods of grounded theory. The study was reported to the relevant Ethics Commission who had raised no objections following the submission of the study protocol. The study at the hospices was approved by the directors of the hospices and the nursing teams. The rights of the participants were protected by obtaining informed consent. Medication in the prefinal phase and questions affecting the provision of solids and liquids in the end-of-life phase have an ethical dimension. In the context of these two fields, decisions are taken collectively. A nurse's individual (and ethically relevant) leeway in decision-making processes is restricted to the nurse's own style of administering care. The nurse's decision-making often depends to a far greater degree on her ability to adapt her concept of ideal care to fit the practical realities of her work than to any conceptual framework. An adaptive process is necessary for the nurse because she is required to incorporate the four pillars of hospice care - namely, physical, psychological, social and spiritual care - into the practice of her daily work. Ethically relevant decisions are often characterised by nurses adjusting their aspiration levels to the practical conditions with which they are confronted. © The Author(s) 2014.

Improving access to shared decision-making for Hispanics/Latinos with inadequately controlled type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Davidson, Jaime A; Rosales, Aracely; Shillington, Alicia C; Bailey, Robert A; Kabir, Chris; Umpierrez, Guillermo E

2015-01-01

To describe the cultural and linguistic adaptation and Spanish translation of an English-language patient decision aid (PDA) for use in supporting shared decision-making in Hispanics/Latinos with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), a group at a high risk for complications. A steering committee of endocrinologists, a primary care physician, a certified diabetes educator, and a dietician, each with extensive experience in providing care to Hispanics/Latinos was convened to assess a PDA developed for English-speaking patients with T2DM. English content was reviewed for cultural sensitivity and appropriateness for a Hispanic/Latino population. A consensus-building process and iterative version edits incorporated clinician perspectives. The content was adapted to be consistent with traditional Hispanic/Latino cultural communication precepts (eg, avoidance of hostile confrontation; value for warm interaction; respect for authority; value of family support for decisions). The PDA was translated by native-speaking individuals with diabetes expertise. The PDA underwent testing during cognitive interviews with ten Spanish-speaking Hispanics/Latinos with T2DM to ensure that the content is reflective of the experience, understanding, and language Hispanic/Latino patients use to describe diabetes and treatment. Content edits were made to assure a literacy level appropriate to the audience, and the PDA was produced for online video dissemination. High-quality, well-developed tools to facilitate shared decision-making in populations with limited access to culturally sensitive information can narrow gaps and align care with individual patient preferences. A newly developed PDA is available for shared decision-making that provides culturally appropriate treatment information for inadequately controlled Hispanics/Latinos with T2DM. The impact on the overall health of patients and care management of T2DM requires further study.

Reward: commentary. Temporal discounting in conduct disorder: toward an experience-adaptation hypothesis of the role of psychosocial insecurity.

PubMed

Sonuga-Barke, Edmund J S

2014-02-01

Young people with conduct disorder often experience histories of psychosocial adversity and socioeconomic insecurity. For these individuals, real-world future outcomes are not only delayed in their delivery but also highly uncertain. Under such circumstances, accentuated time preference (extreme favoring of the present over the future) is a rational response to the everyday reality of social and economic transactions. Building on this observation, the author sets out the hypothesis that the exaggerated temporal discounting displayed by individuals with conduct disorder reported by White et al. (2014) is an adaptation to chronic exposure to psychosocial insecurity during development. The author postulates that this adaptation leads to (a) a decision-making bias whereby delay and uncertainty are coded as inseparable characteristics of choice outcomes and/or (b) reprogramming of the brain networks regulating intertemporal decision making. Future research could explore the putative role of environmental exposures to adversity in the development of exaggerated temporal discounting in conduct disorder as well as the mediating role of putative cognitive and neurobiological adaptations.

Evolutionary mechanics: new engineering principles for the emergence of flexibility in a dynamic and uncertain world.

PubMed

Whitacre, James M; Rohlfshagen, Philipp; Bender, Axel; Yao, Xin

2012-09-01

Engineered systems are designed to deftly operate under predetermined conditions yet are notoriously fragile when unexpected perturbations arise. In contrast, biological systems operate in a highly flexible manner; learn quickly adequate responses to novel conditions, and evolve new routines and traits to remain competitive under persistent environmental change. A recent theory on the origins of biological flexibility has proposed that degeneracy-the existence of multi-functional components with partially overlapping functions-is a primary determinant of the robustness and adaptability found in evolved systems. While degeneracy's contribution to biological flexibility is well documented, there has been little investigation of degeneracy design principles for achieving flexibility in systems engineering. Actually, the conditions that can lead to degeneracy are routinely eliminated in engineering design. With the planning of transportation vehicle fleets taken as a case study, this article reports evidence that degeneracy improves the robustness and adaptability of a simulated fleet towards unpredicted changes in task requirements without incurring costs to fleet efficiency. We find that degeneracy supports faster rates of design adaptation and ultimately leads to better fleet designs. In investigating the limitations of degeneracy as a design principle, we consider decision-making difficulties that arise from degeneracy's influence on fleet complexity. While global decision-making becomes more challenging, we also find degeneracy accommodates rapid distributed decision-making leading to (near-optimal) robust system performance. Given the range of conditions where favorable short-term and long-term performance outcomes are observed, we propose that degeneracy may fundamentally alter the propensity for adaptation and is useful within different engineering and planning contexts.

Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Julien; Fackler, Paul L.; Nichols, James D.; Lubow, Bruce C.; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Runge, Michael C.; Stith, Bradley M.; Langtimm, Catherine A.

2011-01-01

Sea level rise (SLR) projections along the coast of Florida present an enormous challenge for management and conservation over the long term. Decision makers need to recognize and adopt strategies to adapt to the potentially detrimental effects of SLR. Structured decision making (SDM) provides a rigorous framework for the management of natural resources. The aim of SDM is to identify decisions that are optimal with respect to management objectives and knowledge of the system. Most applications of SDM have assumed that the managed systems are governed by stationary processes. However, in the context of SLR it may be necessary to acknowledge that the processes underlying managed systems may be non-stationary, such that systems will be continuously changing. Therefore, SLR brings some unique considerations to the application of decision theory for natural resource management. In particular, SLR is expected to affect each of the components of SDM. For instance, management objectives may have to be reconsidered more frequently than under more stable conditions. The set of potential actions may also have to be adapted over time as conditions change. Models have to account for the non-stationarity of the modeled system processes. Each of the important sources of uncertainty in decision processes is expected to be exacerbated by SLR. We illustrate our ideas about adaptation of natural resource management to SLR by modeling a non-stationary system using a numerical example. We provide additional examples of an SDM approach for managing species that may be affected by SLR, with a focus on the endangered Florida manatee.

How Participatory Should Environmental Governance Be? Testing the Applicability of the Vroom-Yetton-Jago Model in Public Environmental Decision-Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lührs, Nikolas; Jager, Nicolas W.; Challies, Edward; Newig, Jens

2018-02-01

Public participation is potentially useful to improve public environmental decision-making and management processes. In corporate management, the Vroom-Yetton-Jago normative decision-making model has served as a tool to help managers choose appropriate degrees of subordinate participation for effective decision-making given varying decision-making contexts. But does the model recommend participatory mechanisms that would actually benefit environmental management? This study empirically tests the improved Vroom-Jago version of the model in the public environmental decision-making context. To this end, the key variables of the Vroom-Jago model are operationalized and adapted to a public environmental governance context. The model is tested using data from a meta-analysis of 241 published cases of public environmental decision-making, yielding three main sets of findings: (1) The Vroom-Jago model proves limited in its applicability to public environmental governance due to limited variance in its recommendations. We show that adjustments to key model equations make it more likely to produce meaningful recommendations. (2) We find that in most of the studied cases, public environmental managers (implicitly) employ levels of participation close to those that would have been recommended by the model. (3) An ANOVA revealed that such cases, which conform to model recommendations, generally perform better on stakeholder acceptance and environmental standards of outputs than those that diverge from the model. Public environmental management thus benefits from carefully selected and context-sensitive modes of participation.

How Participatory Should Environmental Governance Be? Testing the Applicability of the Vroom-Yetton-Jago Model in Public Environmental Decision-Making.

PubMed

Lührs, Nikolas; Jager, Nicolas W; Challies, Edward; Newig, Jens

2018-02-01

Public participation is potentially useful to improve public environmental decision-making and management processes. In corporate management, the Vroom-Yetton-Jago normative decision-making model has served as a tool to help managers choose appropriate degrees of subordinate participation for effective decision-making given varying decision-making contexts. But does the model recommend participatory mechanisms that would actually benefit environmental management? This study empirically tests the improved Vroom-Jago version of the model in the public environmental decision-making context. To this end, the key variables of the Vroom-Jago model are operationalized and adapted to a public environmental governance context. The model is tested using data from a meta-analysis of 241 published cases of public environmental decision-making, yielding three main sets of findings: (1) The Vroom-Jago model proves limited in its applicability to public environmental governance due to limited variance in its recommendations. We show that adjustments to key model equations make it more likely to produce meaningful recommendations. (2) We find that in most of the studied cases, public environmental managers (implicitly) employ levels of participation close to those that would have been recommended by the model. (3) An ANOVA revealed that such cases, which conform to model recommendations, generally perform better on stakeholder acceptance and environmental standards of outputs than those that diverge from the model. Public environmental management thus benefits from carefully selected and context-sensitive modes of participation.

Adult Age Differences in Dual Information Processes: Implications for the Role of Affective and Deliberative Processes in Older Adults' Decision Making.

PubMed

Peters, Ellen; Hess, Thomas M; Västfjäll, Daniel; Auman, Corinne

2007-03-01

Age differences in affective/experiential and deliberative processes have important theoretical implications for judgment and decision theory and important pragmatic implications for older-adult decision making. Age-related declines in the efficiency of deliberative processes predict poorer-quality decisions as we age. However, age-related adaptive processes, including motivated selectivity in the use of deliberative capacity, an increased focus on emotional goals, and greater experience, predict better or worse decisions for older adults depending on the situation. The aim of the current review is to examine adult age differences in affective and deliberative information processes in order to understand their potential impact on judgments and decisions. We review evidence for the role of these dual processes in judgment and decision making and then review two representative life-span perspectives (based on aging-related changes to cognitive or motivational processes) on the interplay between these processes. We present relevant predictions for older-adult decisions and make note of contradictions and gaps that currently exist in the literature. Finally, we review the sparse evidence about age differences in decision making and how theories and findings regarding dual processes could be applied to decision theory and decision aiding. In particular, we focus on prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) and how prospect theory and theories regarding age differences in information processing can inform one another. © 2007 Association for Psychological Science.

Mechanisms Underlying Decision-Making as Revealed by Deep-Brain Stimulation in Patients with Parkinson's Disease.

PubMed

Herz, Damian M; Little, Simon; Pedrosa, David J; Tinkhauser, Gerd; Cheeran, Binith; Foltynie, Tom; Bogacz, Rafal; Brown, Peter

2018-04-23

To optimally balance opposing demands of speed and accuracy during decision-making, we must flexibly adapt how much evidence we require before making a choice. Such adjustments in decision thresholds have been linked to the subthalamic nucleus (STN), and therapeutic STN deep-brain stimulation (DBS) has been shown to interfere with this function. Here, we performed continuous as well as closed-loop DBS of the STN while Parkinson's disease patients performed a perceptual decision-making task. Closed-loop STN DBS allowed temporally patterned STN stimulation and simultaneous recordings of STN activity. This revealed that DBS only affected patients' ability to adjust decision thresholds if applied in a specific temporally confined time window during deliberation. Only stimulation in that window diminished the normal slowing of response times that occurred on difficult trials when DBS was turned off. Furthermore, DBS eliminated a relative, time-specific increase in STN beta oscillations and compromised its functional relationship with trial-by-trial adjustments in decision thresholds. Together, these results provide causal evidence that the STN is involved in adjusting decision thresholds in distinct, time-limited processing windows during deliberation. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Integrative evaluation for sustainable decisions of urban wastewater system management under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadjimichael, A.; Corominas, L.; Comas, J.

2017-12-01

With sustainable development as their overarching goal, urban wastewater system (UWS) managers need to take into account multiple social, economic, technical and environmental facets related to their decisions. In this complex decision-making environment, uncertainty can be formidable. It is present both in the ways the system is interpreted stochastically, but also in its natural ever-shifting behavior. This inherent uncertainty suggests that wiser decisions would be made under an adaptive and iterative decision-making regime. No decision-support framework has been presented in the literature to effectively addresses all these needs. The objective of this work is to describe such a conceptual framework to evaluate and compare alternative solutions for various UWS challenges within an adaptive management structure. Socio-economic aspects such as externalities are taken into account, along with other traditional criteria as necessary. Robustness, reliability and resilience analyses test the performance of the system against present and future variability. A valuation uncertainty analysis incorporates uncertain valuation assumptions in the decision-making process. The framework is demonstrated with an application to a case study presenting a typical problem often faced by managers: poor river water quality, increasing population, and more stringent water quality legislation. The application of the framework made use of: i) a cost-benefit analysis including monetized environmental benefits and damages; ii) a robustness analysis of system performance against future conditions; iii) reliability and resilience analyses of the system given contextual variability; and iv) a valuation uncertainty analysis of model parameters. The results suggest that the installation of bigger volumes would give rise to increased benefits despite larger capital costs, as well as increased robustness and resilience. Population numbers appear to affect the estimated benefits most, followed by electricity prices and climate change projections. The presented framework is expected to be a valuable tool for the next generation of UWS decision-making and the application demonstrates a novel and valuable integration of metrics and methods for UWS analysis.

Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework.

PubMed

Tanner-McAllister, Sherri L; Rhodes, Jonathan; Hockings, Marc

2017-12-15

Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Build Resilience at Your Utility

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

CREAT allows users to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on their utility and to evaluate adaptation options to address them using both traditional risk assessment and scenario-based decision making.

Informed Decision-Making in the Context of Prenatal Chromosomal Microarray.

PubMed

Baker, Jessica; Shuman, Cheryl; Chitayat, David; Wasim, Syed; Okun, Nan; Keunen, Johannes; Hofstedter, Renee; Silver, Rachel

2018-03-07

The introduction of chromosomal microarray (CMA) into the prenatal setting has involved considerable deliberation due to the wide range of possible outcomes (e.g., copy number variants of uncertain clinical significance). Such issues are typically discussed in pre-test counseling for pregnant women to support informed decision-making regarding prenatal testing options. This research study aimed to assess the level of informed decision-making with respect to prenatal CMA and the factor(s) influencing decision-making to accept CMA for the selected prenatal testing procedure (i.e., chorionic villus sampling or amniocentesis). We employed a questionnaire that was adapted from a three-dimensional measure previously used to assess informed decision-making with respect to prenatal screening for Down syndrome and neural tube defects. This measure classifies an informed decision as one that is knowledgeable, value-consistent, and deliberated. Our questionnaire also included an optional open-ended question, soliciting factors that may have influenced the participants' decision to accept prenatal CMA; these responses were analyzed qualitatively. Data analysis on 106 participants indicated that 49% made an informed decision (i.e., meeting all three criteria of knowledgeable, deliberated, and value-consistent). Analysis of 59 responses to the open-ended question showed that "the more information the better" emerged as the dominant factor influencing both informed and uninformed participants' decisions to accept prenatal CMA. Despite learning about the key issues in pre-test genetic counseling, our study classified a significant portion of women as making uninformed decisions due to insufficient knowledge, lack of deliberation, value-inconsistency, or a combination of these three measures. Future efforts should focus on developing educational approaches and counseling strategies to effectively increase the rate of informed decision-making among women offered prenatal CMA.

Network-centric decision architecture for financial or 1/f data models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaenisch, Holger M.; Handley, James W.; Massey, Stoney; Case, Carl T.; Songy, Claude G.

2002-12-01

This paper presents a decision architecture algorithm for training neural equation based networks to make autonomous multi-goal oriented, multi-class decisions. These architectures make decisions based on their individual goals and draw from the same network centric feature set. Traditionally, these architectures are comprised of neural networks that offer marginal performance due to lack of convergence of the training set. We present an approach for autonomously extracting sample points as I/O exemplars for generation of multi-branch, multi-node decision architectures populated by adaptively derived neural equations. To test the robustness of this architecture, open source data sets in the form of financial time series were used, requiring a three-class decision space analogous to the lethal, non-lethal, and clutter discrimination problem. This algorithm and the results of its application are presented here.

Adapting the SLIM diabetes prevention intervention to a Dutch real-life setting: joint decision making by science and practice.

PubMed

Jansen, Sophia C; Haveman-Nies, Annemien; Duijzer, Geerke; Ter Beek, Josien; Hiddink, Gerrit J; Feskens, Edith J M

2013-05-08

Although many evidence-based diabetes prevention interventions exist, they are not easily applicable in real-life settings. Moreover, there is a lack of examples which describe the adaptation process of these interventions to practice. In this paper we present an example of such an adaptation. We adapted the SLIM (Study on Lifestyle intervention and Impaired glucose tolerance Maastricht) diabetes prevention intervention to a Dutch real-life setting, in a joint decision making process of intervention developers and local health care professionals. We used 3 adaptation steps in accordance with current adaptation frameworks. In the first step, the elements of the SLIM intervention were identified. In the second step, these elements were judged for their applicability in a real-life setting. In the third step, adaptations were proposed and discussed for those elements which were deemed not applicable. Participants invited for this process included intervention developers and local health care professionals (n=19). In the first adaptation step, a total of 22 intervention elements were identified. In the second step, 12 of these 22 intervention elements were judged as inapplicable. In the third step, a consensus was achieved for the adaptations of all 12 elements. The adapted elements were in the following categories: target population, techniques, intensity, delivery mode, materials, organisational structure, and political and financial conditions. The adaptations either lay in changing the SLIM protocol (6 elements) or the real-life working procedures (1 element), or a combination of both (4 elements). The positive result of this study is that a consensus was achieved within a relatively short time period (nine months) between the developers of the SLIM intervention and local health care professionals on the adaptations needed to make SLIM applicable in a Dutch real-life setting. Our example shows that it is possible to combine the perspectives of scientists and practitioners, and to find a balance between evidence-base and applicability concerns.

Intervention Mapping to Adapt Evidence-Based Interventions for Use in Practice: Increasing Mammography among African American Women.

PubMed

Highfield, Linda; Hartman, Marieke A; Mullen, Patricia Dolan; Rodriguez, Serena A; Fernandez, Maria E; Bartholomew, L Kay

2015-01-01

This paper describes and demonstrates the use of the systematic planning process, Intervention Mapping, to adapt an evidence-based public health intervention (EBI). We used a simplified version of Intervention Mapping (IM Adapt) to increase an intervention's fit with a new setting and population. IM Adapt guides researchers and practitioners in selecting an EBI, making decisions about whether and what to adapt, and executing the adaptation while guarding the EBI's essential elements (those responsible for effectiveness). We present a case study of a project in which we used IM Adapt to find, adapt, implement, and evaluate an EBI to improve mammography adherence for African American women in a new practice setting in Houston, Texas. IM Adapt includes the following (1) assess needs and organizational capacity; (2) find EBIs; (3) plan adaptations based on fit assessments; (4) make adaptations; (5) plan for implementation; and (6) plan for evaluation of the adapted EBI. The case study shows an example of how public health researchers and practitioners can use the tool to make it easier to find and use EBIs, thus encouraging greater uptake. IM Adapt adds to existing dissemination and adaptation models by providing detailed guidance on how to decide on effective adaptation, while maintaining the essential elements of the EBI.

Intervention Mapping to Adapt Evidence-Based Interventions for Use in Practice: Increasing Mammography among African American Women

PubMed Central

Highfield, Linda; Hartman, Marieke A.; Mullen, Patricia Dolan; Fernandez, Maria E.; Bartholomew, L. Kay

2015-01-01

This paper describes and demonstrates the use of the systematic planning process, Intervention Mapping, to adapt an evidence-based public health intervention (EBI). We used a simplified version of Intervention Mapping (IM Adapt) to increase an intervention's fit with a new setting and population. IM Adapt guides researchers and practitioners in selecting an EBI, making decisions about whether and what to adapt, and executing the adaptation while guarding the EBI's essential elements (those responsible for effectiveness). We present a case study of a project in which we used IM Adapt to find, adapt, implement, and evaluate an EBI to improve mammography adherence for African American women in a new practice setting in Houston, Texas. IM Adapt includes the following (1) assess needs and organizational capacity; (2) find EBIs; (3) plan adaptations based on fit assessments; (4) make adaptations; (5) plan for implementation; and (6) plan for evaluation of the adapted EBI. The case study shows an example of how public health researchers and practitioners can use the tool to make it easier to find and use EBIs, thus encouraging greater uptake. IM Adapt adds to existing dissemination and adaptation models by providing detailed guidance on how to decide on effective adaptation, while maintaining the essential elements of the EBI. PMID:26587531

Factors associated with oncology patients' involvement in shared decision making during chemotherapy.

PubMed

Colley, Alexis; Halpern, Jodi; Paul, Steven; Micco, Guy; Lahiff, Maureen; Wright, Fay; Levine, Jon D; Mastick, Judy; Hammer, Marilyn J; Miaskowski, Christine; Dunn, Laura B

2017-11-01

Oncology patients are increasingly encouraged to play an active role in treatment decision making. While previous studies have evaluated relationships between demographic characteristics and decision-making roles, less is known about the association of symptoms and psychological adjustment characteristics (eg, coping styles and personality traits) and decision-making roles. As part of a larger study of symptom clusters, patients (n = 765) receiving chemotherapy for breast, gastrointestinal, gynecological, or lung cancer provided information on demographic, clinical, symptom, and psychological adjustment characteristics. Patient-reported treatment decision-making roles (ie, preferred role and role actually played) were assessed using the Control Preferences Scale. Differences among patients, who were classified as passive, collaborative, or active, were evaluated using χ 2 analyses and analyses of variance. Over half (56.3%) of the patients reported that they both preferred and actually played a collaborative role. Among those patients with concordant roles, those who were older, those with less education and lower income, and those who were less resilient were more likely to prefer a passive role. Several psychological adjustment characteristics were associated with decision-making role, including coping style, personality, and fatalism. Oncology patients' preferences for involvement in treatment decision making are associated with demographic characteristics as well as with symptoms and psychological adjustment characteristics, such as coping style and personality. These results reaffirm the complexities of predicting patients' preferences for involvement in decision making. Further study is needed to determine if role or coping style may be influenced by interventions designed to teach adaptive coping skills. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Adapting to Uncertainty: Comparing Methodological Approaches to Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huda, J.; Kauneckis, D. L.

2013-12-01

Climate change adaptation represents a number of unique policy-making challenges. Foremost among these is dealing with the range of future climate impacts to a wide scope of inter-related natural systems, their interaction with social and economic systems, and uncertainty resulting from the variety of downscaled climate model scenarios and climate science projections. These cascades of uncertainty have led to a number of new approaches as well as a reexamination of traditional methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty in policy-making. Policy makers are required to make decisions and formulate policy irrespective of the level of uncertainty involved and while a debate continues regarding the level of scientific certainty required in order to make a decision, incremental change in the climate policy continues at multiple governance levels. This project conducts a comparative analysis of the range of methodological approaches that are evolving to address uncertainty in climate change policy. It defines 'methodologies' to include a variety of quantitative and qualitative approaches involving both top-down and bottom-up policy processes that attempt to enable policymakers to synthesize climate information into the policy process. The analysis examines methodological approaches to decision-making in climate policy based on criteria such as sources of policy choice information, sectors to which the methodology has been applied, sources from which climate projections were derived, quantitative and qualitative methods used to deal with uncertainty, and the benefits and limitations of each. A typology is developed to better categorize the variety of approaches and methods, examine the scope of policy activities they are best suited for, and highlight areas for future research and development.

Impaired anterior insular activation during risky decision making in young adults with internet gaming disorder.

PubMed

Lee, Deokjong; Lee, Junghan; Yoon, Kang Joon; Kee, Namkoong; Jung, Young-Chul

2016-05-25

Internet gaming disorder is defined as excessive and compulsive use of the internet to engage in games that leads to clinically significant psychosocial impairment. We tested the hypothesis that individuals with internet gaming disorder would be less sensitive to high-risk situations and show aberrant brain activation related to risk prediction processing. Young adults with internet gaming disorder underwent functional MRI while performing a risky decision-making task. The healthy control group showed stronger activations within the dorsal attention network and the anterior insular cortex, which were not found in the internet gaming disorder group. Our findings imply that young adults with internet gaming disorder show impaired anterior insular activation during risky decision making, which might make them vulnerable when they need to adapt new behavioral strategies in high-risk situations.

Informing Environmental Water Management Decisions: Using Conditional Probability Networks to Address the Information Needs of Planning and Implementation Cycles.

PubMed

Horne, Avril C; Szemis, Joanna M; Webb, J Angus; Kaur, Simranjit; Stewardson, Michael J; Bond, Nick; Nathan, Rory

2018-03-01

One important aspect of adaptive management is the clear and transparent documentation of hypotheses, together with the use of predictive models (complete with any assumptions) to test those hypotheses. Documentation of such models can improve the ability to learn from management decisions and supports dialog between stakeholders. A key challenge is how best to represent the existing scientific knowledge to support decision-making. Such challenges are currently emerging in the field of environmental water management in Australia, where managers are required to prioritize the delivery of environmental water on an annual basis, using a transparent and evidence-based decision framework. We argue that the development of models of ecological responses to environmental water use needs to support both the planning and implementation cycles of adaptive management. Here we demonstrate an approach based on the use of Conditional Probability Networks to translate existing ecological knowledge into quantitative models that include temporal dynamics to support adaptive environmental flow management. It equally extends to other applications where knowledge is incomplete, but decisions must still be made.

Informing Environmental Water Management Decisions: Using Conditional Probability Networks to Address the Information Needs of Planning and Implementation Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horne, Avril C.; Szemis, Joanna M.; Webb, J. Angus; Kaur, Simranjit; Stewardson, Michael J.; Bond, Nick; Nathan, Rory

2018-03-01

One important aspect of adaptive management is the clear and transparent documentation of hypotheses, together with the use of predictive models (complete with any assumptions) to test those hypotheses. Documentation of such models can improve the ability to learn from management decisions and supports dialog between stakeholders. A key challenge is how best to represent the existing scientific knowledge to support decision-making. Such challenges are currently emerging in the field of environmental water management in Australia, where managers are required to prioritize the delivery of environmental water on an annual basis, using a transparent and evidence-based decision framework. We argue that the development of models of ecological responses to environmental water use needs to support both the planning and implementation cycles of adaptive management. Here we demonstrate an approach based on the use of Conditional Probability Networks to translate existing ecological knowledge into quantitative models that include temporal dynamics to support adaptive environmental flow management. It equally extends to other applications where knowledge is incomplete, but decisions must still be made.

Decision-making strategies: ignored to the detriment of healthcare training and delivery?

PubMed Central

Desmond, Chris; Brubaker, Kathryn A.; Ellner, Andrew L.

2013-01-01

Context: People do not always make health-related decisions which reflect their best interest – best interest being defined as the decision they would make if they carefully considered the options and fully understood the information available. A substantial literature has developed in behavioral economics and social psychology that seeks to elucidate the patterns in individual decision-making. While this is particularly relevant to healthcare, the insights from these fields have only been applied in a limited way. To address the health challenges of the twenty-first century, healthcare providers and healthcare systems designers need to more fully understand how individuals are making decisions. Methods: We provide an overview of the theories of behavioral economics and social psychology that relate to how individuals make health-related decisions. The concentration on health-related decisions leads to a focus on three topics: (1) mental shortcuts and motivated reasoning; (2) implications of time; and (3) implications of affect. The first topic is relevant because health-related decisions are often made in a hurry without a full appreciation of the implications and the deliberation they warrant. The second topic is included because the link between a decision and its health-related outcomes can involve a significant time lag. The final topic is included because health and affect are so often linked. Findings: The literature reviewed has implications for healthcare training and delivery. Selection for medical training must consider the skills necessary to understand and adapt to how patients make decisions. Training on the insights garnered from behavioral economics and social psychology would better prepare healthcare providers to effectively support their clients to lead healthy lives. Healthcare delivery should be structured to respond to the way in which decisions are made. Conclusions: These patterns in decision-making call into question basic assumptions our healthcare system makes about the best way to treat patients and deliver care. This literature has implications for the way we train physicians and deliver care. PMID:25264501

Decision-making strategies: ignored to the detriment of healthcare training and delivery?

PubMed

Desmond, Chris; Brubaker, Kathryn A; Ellner, Andrew L

2013-01-01

Context : People do not always make health-related decisions which reflect their best interest - best interest being defined as the decision they would make if they carefully considered the options and fully understood the information available. A substantial literature has developed in behavioral economics and social psychology that seeks to elucidate the patterns in individual decision-making. While this is particularly relevant to healthcare, the insights from these fields have only been applied in a limited way. To address the health challenges of the twenty-first century, healthcare providers and healthcare systems designers need to more fully understand how individuals are making decisions. Methods : We provide an overview of the theories of behavioral economics and social psychology that relate to how individuals make health-related decisions. The concentration on health-related decisions leads to a focus on three topics: (1) mental shortcuts and motivated reasoning; (2) implications of time; and (3) implications of affect. The first topic is relevant because health-related decisions are often made in a hurry without a full appreciation of the implications and the deliberation they warrant. The second topic is included because the link between a decision and its health-related outcomes can involve a significant time lag. The final topic is included because health and affect are so often linked. Findings : The literature reviewed has implications for healthcare training and delivery. Selection for medical training must consider the skills necessary to understand and adapt to how patients make decisions. Training on the insights garnered from behavioral economics and social psychology would better prepare healthcare providers to effectively support their clients to lead healthy lives. Healthcare delivery should be structured to respond to the way in which decisions are made. Conclusions : These patterns in decision-making call into question basic assumptions our healthcare system makes about the best way to treat patients and deliver care. This literature has implications for the way we train physicians and deliver care.

Age-related changes in decision making: comparing informed and noninformed situations.

PubMed

Van Duijvenvoorde, Anna C K; Jansen, Brenda R J; Bredman, Joren C; Huizenga, Hilde M

2012-01-01

Advantageous decision making progressively develops into early adulthood, most specifically in complex and motivationally salient decision situations in which direct feedback on gains and losses is provided (Figner & Weber, 2011). However, the factors that underlie this developmental improvement in decision making are still not well understood. The current study therefore investigates 2 potential factors, long-term memory and working memory, by assigning a large developmental sample (7-29 years of age) to a condition with either high or low demands on long-term and working memory. The first condition featured an age-adapted version of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT; Bechara, Damasio, Damasio, & Anderson, 1994; i.e., a noninformed situation), whereas the second condition provided an external store where explicit information on gains, losses, and probabilities per choice option was presented (i.e., an informed situation). Consistent with previous developmental IGT studies, children up to age 12 did not learn to prefer advantageous options in the noninformed condition. In contrast, all age groups learned to prefer the advantageous options in the informed conditions, although a slight developmental increase in advantageous decision making remained. These results indicate that lowering dependence on long-term and working memory improves children's advantageous decision making. The results additionally suggest that other factors, like inhibitory control processes, may play an additional role in the development of advantageous decision making.

Simulation of California's Major Reservoirs Outflow Using Data Mining Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, T.; Gao, X.; Sorooshian, S.

2014-12-01

The reservoir's outflow is controlled by reservoir operators, which is different from the upstream inflow. The outflow is more important than the reservoir's inflow for the downstream water users. In order to simulate the complicated reservoir operation and extract the outflow decision making patterns for California's 12 major reservoirs, we build a data-driven, computer-based ("artificial intelligent") reservoir decision making tool, using decision regression and classification tree approach. This is a well-developed statistical and graphical modeling methodology in the field of data mining. A shuffled cross validation approach is also employed to extract the outflow decision making patterns and rules based on the selected decision variables (inflow amount, precipitation, timing, water type year etc.). To show the accuracy of the model, a verification study is carried out comparing the model-generated outflow decisions ("artificial intelligent" decisions) with that made by reservoir operators (human decisions). The simulation results show that the machine-generated outflow decisions are very similar to the real reservoir operators' decisions. This conclusion is based on statistical evaluations using the Nash-Sutcliffe test. The proposed model is able to detect the most influential variables and their weights when the reservoir operators make an outflow decision. While the proposed approach was firstly applied and tested on California's 12 major reservoirs, the method is universally adaptable to other reservoir systems.

Strategies for memory-based decision making: Modeling behavioral and neural signatures within a cognitive architecture.

PubMed

Fechner, Hanna B; Pachur, Thorsten; Schooler, Lael J; Mehlhorn, Katja; Battal, Ceren; Volz, Kirsten G; Borst, Jelmer P

2016-12-01

How do people use memories to make inferences about real-world objects? We tested three strategies based on predicted patterns of response times and blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) responses: one strategy that relies solely on recognition memory, a second that retrieves additional knowledge, and a third, lexicographic (i.e., sequential) strategy, that considers knowledge conditionally on the evidence obtained from recognition memory. We implemented the strategies as computational models within the Adaptive Control of Thought-Rational (ACT-R) cognitive architecture, which allowed us to derive behavioral and neural predictions that we then compared to the results of a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study in which participants inferred which of two cities is larger. Overall, versions of the lexicographic strategy, according to which knowledge about many but not all alternatives is searched, provided the best account of the joint patterns of response times and BOLD responses. These results provide insights into the interplay between recognition and additional knowledge in memory, hinting at an adaptive use of these two sources of information in decision making. The results highlight the usefulness of implementing models of decision making within a cognitive architecture to derive predictions on the behavioral and neural level. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ventral Striatum and the Evaluation of Memory Retrieval Strategies

PubMed Central

Badre, David; Lebrecht, Sophie; Pagliaccio, David; Long, Nicole M.; Scimeca, Jason M.

2015-01-01

Adaptive memory retrieval requires mechanisms of cognitive control that facilitate the recovery of goal-relevant information. Frontoparietal systems are known to support control of memory retrieval. However, the mechanisms by which the brain acquires, evaluates, and adapts retrieval strategies remain unknown. Here, we provide evidence that ventral striatal activation tracks the success of a retrieval strategy and correlates with subsequent reliance on that strategy. Human participants were scanned with fMRI while performing a lexical decision task. A rule was provided that indicated the likely semantic category of a target word given the category of a preceding prime. Reliance on the rule improved decision-making, as estimated within a drift diffusion framework. Ventral striatal activation tracked the benefit that relying on the rule had on decision-making. Moreover, activation in ventral striatum correlated with a participant’s subsequent reliance on the rule. Taken together, these results support a role for ventral striatum in learning and evaluating declarative retrieval strategies. PMID:24564466

Fast Tracking Data to Informed Decisions: An Advanced Information System to Improve Environmental Understanding and Management (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minsker, B. S.; Myers, J.; Liu, Y.; Bajcsy, P.

2010-12-01

Emerging sensing and information technology are rapidly creating a new paradigm for environmental research and management, in which data from multiple sensors and information sources can guide real-time adaptive observation and decision making. This talk will provide an overview of emerging cyberinfrastructure and three case studies that illustrate their potential: combined sewer overflows in Chicago, hypoxia in Corpus Christi Bay, Texas, and sustainable agriculture in Illinois. An advanced information system for real-time decision making and visual geospatial analytics will be presented as an example of cyberinfrastructure that enables easier implementation of numerous real-time applications.

The power of simplicity: a fast-and-frugal heuristics approach to performance science.

PubMed

Raab, Markus; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2015-01-01

Performance science is a fairly new multidisciplinary field that integrates performance domains such as sports, medicine, business, and the arts. To give its many branches a structure and its research a direction, it requires a theoretical framework. We demonstrate the applications of this framework with examples from sport and medicine. Because performance science deals mainly with situations of uncertainty rather than known risks, the needed framework can be provided by the fast-and-frugal heuristics approach. According to this approach, experts learn to rely on heuristics in an adaptive way in order to make accurate decisions. We investigate the adaptive use of heuristics in three ways: the descriptive study of the heuristics in the cognitive "adaptive toolbox;" the prescriptive study of their "ecological rationality," that is, the characterization of the situations in which a given heuristic works; and the engineering study of "intuitive design," that is, the design of transparent aids for making better decisions.

The power of simplicity: a fast-and-frugal heuristics approach to performance science

PubMed Central

Raab, Markus; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2015-01-01

Performance science is a fairly new multidisciplinary field that integrates performance domains such as sports, medicine, business, and the arts. To give its many branches a structure and its research a direction, it requires a theoretical framework. We demonstrate the applications of this framework with examples from sport and medicine. Because performance science deals mainly with situations of uncertainty rather than known risks, the needed framework can be provided by the fast-and-frugal heuristics approach. According to this approach, experts learn to rely on heuristics in an adaptive way in order to make accurate decisions. We investigate the adaptive use of heuristics in three ways: the descriptive study of the heuristics in the cognitive “adaptive toolbox;” the prescriptive study of their “ecological rationality,” that is, the characterization of the situations in which a given heuristic works; and the engineering study of “intuitive design,” that is, the design of transparent aids for making better decisions. PMID:26579051

Thalamocortical and corticothalamic pathways differentially contribute to goal-directed behaviors in the rat

PubMed Central

Alcaraz, Fabien; Fresno, Virginie; Marchand, Alain R; Kremer, Eric J; Coutureau, Etienne

2018-01-01

Highly distributed neural circuits are thought to support adaptive decision-making in volatile and complex environments. Notably, the functional interactions between prefrontal and reciprocally connected thalamic nuclei areas may be important when choices are guided by current goal value or action-outcome contingency. We examined the functional involvement of selected thalamocortical and corticothalamic pathways connecting the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) and the mediodorsal thalamus (MD) in the behaving rat. Using a chemogenetic approach to inhibit projection-defined dmPFC and MD neurons during an instrumental learning task, we show that thalamocortical and corticothalamic pathways differentially support goal attributes. Both pathways participate in adaptation to the current goal value, but only thalamocortical neurons are required to integrate current causal relationships. These data indicate that antiparallel flow of information within thalamocortical circuits may convey qualitatively distinct aspects of adaptive decision-making and highlight the importance of the direction of information flow within neural circuits. PMID:29405119

Guidelines for the Pharmacotherapy of Schizophrenia in Adults.

PubMed

Remington, Gary; Addington, Donald; Honer, William; Ismail, Zahinoor; Raedler, Thomas; Teehan, Michael

2017-09-01

The present guidelines address the pharmacotherapy of schizophrenia in adults across different stages, phases, and symptom domains. Guidelines were developed using the ADAPTE process, which takes advantage of existing guidelines. Six guidelines were identified for adaptation, with recommendations extracted from each. For those specific to the pharmacotherapy of schizophrenia in adults, a working group selected between guidelines and recommendations to create an adapted guideline. Recommendations can be categorized into 6 areas that include 1) first-episode schizophrenia, 2) acute exacerbation, 3) relapse prevention and maintenance treatment, 4) treatment-resistant schizophrenia, 5) clozapine-resistant schizophrenia, and 6) specific symptom domains. For each category, recommendations are made based on the available evidence, which is discussed and linked to other established guidelines. In most cases, evidence-based recommendations are made that can be used to guide current clinical treatment and decision making. Notably, however, there is a paucity of established evidence to guide treatment decision making in the case of clozapine-resistant schizophrenia, a subsample that represents a sizable proportion of those with schizophrenia.

Adaptive Management of Environmental Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, J. Angus; Watts, Robyn J.; Allan, Catherine; Conallin, John C.

2018-03-01

Adaptive management enables managers to work with complexity and uncertainty, and to respond to changing biophysical and social conditions. Amid considerable uncertainty over the benefits of environmental flows, governments are embracing adaptive management as a means to inform decision making. This Special Issue of Environmental Management presents examples of adaptive management of environmental flows and addresses claims that there are few examples of its successful implementation. It arose from a session at the 11th International Symposium on Ecohydraulics held in Australia, and is consequently dominated by papers from Australia. We classified the papers according to the involvement of researchers, managers and the local community in adaptive management. Five papers report on approaches developed by researchers, and one paper on a community-led program; these case studies currently have little impact on decision making. Six papers provide examples involving water managers and researchers, and two papers provide examples involving water managers and the local community. There are no papers where researchers, managers and local communities all contribute equally to adaptive management. Successful adaptive management of environmental flows occurs more often than is perceived. The final paper explores why successes are rarely reported, suggesting a lack of emphasis on reflection on management practices. One major challenge is to increase the documentation of successful adaptive management, so that benefits of learning extend beyond the project where it takes place. Finally, moving towards greater involvement of all stakeholders is critical if we are to realize the benefits of adaptive management for improving outcomes from environmental flows.

Structuring Disaster Recovery Infrastructure Decisions: Lessons from Boulder County's 2013 Flood Recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clavin, C.; Petropoulos, Z.

2017-12-01

Recovery phase decision making processes, as compared to mitigation and response phase decision making processes, require communities make significant financial and capital decisions in the months after a disaster. Collectively, these investments may significantly contribute to the resilience of a community to future hazards. Pre-disaster administrative decisions are well-established within existing planning processes. Post-event recovery requires community decision makers to quickly evaluate technical proposals and manage significant recovery financial resources to ensure their community rebuilds in a manner that will be more resilient to future events. These technical and administrative hurdles in the aftermath of a disaster create a challenging atmosphere to make sound, scientifically-informed decisions leading to resilient recovery. In September 2013, a 1,000-year rain event that resulted in flooding throughout the Front Range of Colorado, significantly impacting Boulder County. While the event is long past, disaster recovery efforts still continue in parts of Boulder County. Boulder County officials formed a county collaborative that adapted the NIST Community Resilience Planning Guide for Buildings and Infrastructure Systems to facilitate a goals-based multi-criteria decision making process. Rather than use hazard-based information to guide infrastructure design, the county's decision process established time-to-recovery goals for infrastructure systems that were used as criteria for project design. This presentation explores the decision-making process employed by Boulder County to specify design standards for resilient rebuilding of infrastructure systems and examine how this infrastructure planning model could be extrapolated to other situations where there is uncertainty regarding future infrastructure design standards.

The contingency of patient preferences for involvement in health decision making.

PubMed

Ryan, John; Sysko, James

2007-01-01

Studies indicate that better patient compliance and higher patient satisfaction result when agreement exists between the physician and the patient regarding the medical problem and its treatment. This study will extend previous work by investigating (1) under what conditions patients prefer to be actively involved in their treatment decisions, (2) the underlying theoretical reasons that may account for patient decision-making preferences, and (3) what medical decision-making model can guide physicians and medical policy makers when adapting their medical decision-making styles. A total of 2,765 individuals were surveyed by the National Opinion Research Center as part of the 2002 General Social Survey (GSS). This survey included a one-time topical module on "Doctors and Patients," which incorporated questions on patient preferences concerning the physician-patient relationship. Demographic information (e.g., age, education, and sex) was analyzed against patient preferences for medical decision making. Results support patient preferences for participatory medical decision making, and this is especially true for younger, more educated, and female patients. Common prudence would suggest that the best way to determine a patient's preference for participating in medical decision making is to simply ask them. However, the very asking of this straightforward question is based on the assumption that patients do wish to be actively involved. Results of this study support such an assumption. In the absence of all other knowledge, the results of this national survey support the health care practitioner's belief that U.S. patients, in general, have a preference for being actively involved in medical decision making and that this preference is truer for younger, female, and more educated patients.

CREB1 Genotype Modulates Adaptive Reward-Based Decisions in Humans.

PubMed

Wolf, Claudia; Mohr, Holger; Diekhof, Esther K; Vieker, Henning; Goya-Maldonado, Roberto; Trost, Sarah; Krämer, Bernd; Keil, Maria; Binder, Elisabeth B; Gruber, Oliver

2016-07-01

Cyclic AMP response element-binding protein (CREB) contributes to adaptation of mesocorticolimbic networks by modulating activity-regulated transcription and plasticity in neurons. Activity or expression changes of CREB in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) and orbital frontal cortex (OFC) interact with behavioral changes during reward-motivated learning. However, these findings from animal models have not been evaluated in humans. We tested whether CREB1 genotypes affect reward-motivated decisions and related brain activation, using BOLD fMRI in 224 young and healthy participants. More specifically, participants needed to adapt their decision to either pursue or resist immediate rewards to optimize the reward outcome. We found significant CREB1 genotype effects on choices to pursue increases of the reward outcome and on BOLD signal in the NAc, OFC, insula cortex, cingulate gyrus, hippocampus, amygdala, and precuneus during these decisions in comparison with those decisions avoiding total reward loss. Our results suggest that CREB1 genotype effects in these regions could contribute to individual differences in reward- and associative memory-based decision-making. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Decision-making and impulse control after frontal lobe injuries.

PubMed

Bechara, Antoine; Van Der Linden, Martial

2005-12-01

For a long time, the prefrontal cortex has been considered a 'nonfunctional' brain area, and understanding its function has lagged behind other areas. This is no longer true since appreciation of the vital role that this brain region plays in adaptive behaviors, and especially decision-making, is now evident more than ever. The present review highlights recent progress made in this area of research. Decision-making is a term often referred to in the psychological literature as one of the 'executive functions' that play a role in managing (like an executive) other cognitive functions, such as memory, attention, and language. Considerable research efforts have been directed towards differentiating various processes of executive functions, but much of this effort in the past has focused on the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex sector. Here we will review findings that address decision-making and its link to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex. Decision-making impairments as encountered in neurological and psychiatric patients are costly in terms of individual human suffering and in financial terms. In addition to its obvious value in advancing fundamental knowledge in neuroscience, understanding the neural mechanisms of decision-making is likely to have important practical consequences, including the understanding and management of neuropsychiatric disorders such as addiction, as well as the management of a considerable number of elderly people suffering from a decline in cognitive functions critical for decision-making, in spite of relatively intact memory and general intellect, which impact real-life matters that are important to themselves and their family.

Memory Dynamics and Decision Making in Younger and Older Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lechuga, M. Teresa; Gomez-Ariza, Carlos J.; Iglesias-Parro, Sergio; Pelegrina, Santiago

2012-01-01

The main aim of this research was to study whether memory dynamics influence older people's choices to the same extent as younger's ones. To do so, we adapted the retrieval-practice paradigm to produce variations in memory accessibility of information on which decisions were made later. Based on previous results, we expected to observe…

Reframing as a Best Practice: The Priority of Process in Highly Adaptive Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peters, Gary B.

2008-01-01

The development and practice of a well-defined process in which decisions are fully contemplated is needed in education today. The complexity of societal issues requires new depths of understanding, appreciation, and communication. Framing refers to the way a situation is described or viewed; reframing is the process of expanding and enriching the…

Evidence-Based Decision-Making as a Practice-Based Learning Skill: A Pilot Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Falzer, Paul R.; Garman, Melissa

2012-01-01

Objectives: As physicians are being trained to adapt their practices to the needs and experience of patients, initiatives to standardize care have been gaining momentum. The resulting conflict can be addressed through a practice-based learning and improvement (PBL) program that develops competency in using treatment guidelines as decision aids and…

Effects of invalid feedback on learning and feedback-related brain activity in decision-making.

PubMed

Ernst, Benjamin; Steinhauser, Marco

2015-10-01

For adaptive decision-making it is important to utilize only relevant, valid and to ignore irrelevant feedback. The present study investigated how feedback processing in decision-making is impaired when relevant feedback is combined with irrelevant and potentially invalid feedback. We analyzed two electrophysiological markers of feedback processing, the feedback-related negativity (FRN) and the P300, in a simple decision-making task, in which participants processed feedback stimuli consisting of relevant and irrelevant feedback provided by the color and meaning of a Stroop stimulus. We found that invalid, irrelevant feedback not only impaired learning, it also altered the amplitude of the P300 to relevant feedback, suggesting an interfering effect of irrelevant feedback on the processing of relevant feedback. In contrast, no such effect on the FRN was obtained. These results indicate that detrimental effects of invalid, irrelevant feedback result from failures of controlled feedback processing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Providing Global Change Information for Decision-Making: Capturing and Presenting Provenance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ma, Xiaogang; Fox, Peter; Tilmes, Curt; Jacobs, Katherine; Waple, Anne

2014-01-01

Global change information demands access to data sources and well-documented provenance to provide evidence needed to build confidence in scientific conclusions and, in specific applications, to ensure the information's suitability for use in decision-making. A new generation of Web technology, the Semantic Web, provides tools for that purpose. The topic of global change covers changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric composition and or chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life and support human systems. Data and findings associated with global change research are of great public, government, and academic concern and are used in policy and decision-making, which makes the provenance of global change information especially important. In addition, since different types of decisions benefit from different types of information, understanding how to capture and present the provenance of global change information is becoming more of an imperative in adaptive planning.

Development of a support tool for complex decision-making in the provision of rural maternity care.

PubMed

Hearns, Glen; Klein, Michael C; Trousdale, William; Ulrich, Catherine; Butcher, David; Miewald, Christiana; Lindstrom, Ronald; Eftekhary, Sahba; Rosinski, Jessica; Gómez-Ramírez, Oralia; Procyk, Andrea

2010-02-01

Decisions in the organization of safe and effective rural maternity care are complex, difficult, value laden and fraught with uncertainty, and must often be based on imperfect information. Decision analysis offers tools for addressing these complexities in order to help decision-makers determine the best use of resources and to appreciate the downstream effects of their decisions. To develop a maternity care decision-making tool for the British Columbia Northern Health Authority (NH) for use in low birth volume settings. Based on interviews with community members, providers, recipients and decision-makers, and employing a formal decision analysis approach, we sought to clarify the influences affecting rural maternity care and develop a process to generate a set of value-focused objectives for use in designing and evaluating rural maternity care alternatives. Four low-volume communities with variable resources (with and without on-site births, with or without caesarean section capability) were chosen. Physicians (20), nurses (18), midwives and maternity support service providers (4), local business leaders, economic development officials and elected officials (12), First Nations (women [pregnant and non-pregnant], chiefs and band members) (40), social workers (3), pregnant women (2) and NH decision-makers/administrators (17). We developed a Decision Support Manual to assist with assessing community needs and values, context for decision-making, capacity of the health authority or healthcare providers, identification of key objectives for decision-making, developing alternatives for care, and a process for making trade-offs and balancing multiple objectives. The manual was deemed an effective tool for the purpose by the client, NH. Beyond assisting the decision-making process itself, the methodology provides a transparent communication tool to assist in making difficult decisions. While the manual was specifically intended to deal with rural maternity issues, the NH decision-makers feel the method can be easily adapted to assist decision-making in other contexts in medicine where there are conflicting objectives, values and opinions. Decisions on the location of new facilities or infrastructure, or enhancing or altering services such as surgical or palliative care, would be examples of complex decisions that might benefit from this methodology.

Development of a Support Tool for Complex Decision-Making in the Provision of Rural Maternity Care

PubMed Central

Hearns, Glen; Klein, Michael C.; Trousdale, William; Ulrich, Catherine; Butcher, David; Miewald, Christiana; Lindstrom, Ronald; Eftekhary, Sahba; Rosinski, Jessica; Gómez-Ramírez, Oralia; Procyk, Andrea

2010-01-01

Context: Decisions in the organization of safe and effective rural maternity care are complex, difficult, value laden and fraught with uncertainty, and must often be based on imperfect information. Decision analysis offers tools for addressing these complexities in order to help decision-makers determine the best use of resources and to appreciate the downstream effects of their decisions. Objective: To develop a maternity care decision-making tool for the British Columbia Northern Health Authority (NH) for use in low birth volume settings. Design: Based on interviews with community members, providers, recipients and decision-makers, and employing a formal decision analysis approach, we sought to clarify the influences affecting rural maternity care and develop a process to generate a set of value-focused objectives for use in designing and evaluating rural maternity care alternatives. Setting: Four low-volume communities with variable resources (with and without on-site births, with or without caesarean section capability) were chosen. Participants: Physicians (20), nurses (18), midwives and maternity support service providers (4), local business leaders, economic development officials and elected officials (12), First Nations (women [pregnant and non-pregnant], chiefs and band members) (40), social workers (3), pregnant women (2) and NH decision-makers/administrators (17). Results: We developed a Decision Support Manual to assist with assessing community needs and values, context for decision-making, capacity of the health authority or healthcare providers, identification of key objectives for decision-making, developing alternatives for care, and a process for making trade-offs and balancing multiple objectives. The manual was deemed an effective tool for the purpose by the client, NH. Conclusions: Beyond assisting the decision-making process itself, the methodology provides a transparent communication tool to assist in making difficult decisions. While the manual was specifically intended to deal with rural maternity issues, the NH decision-makers feel the method can be easily adapted to assist decision-making in other contexts in medicine where there are conflicting objectives, values and opinions. Decisions on the location of new facilities or infrastructure, or enhancing or altering services such as surgical or palliative care, would be examples of complex decisions that might benefit from this methodology. PMID:21286270

A new intuitionism: Meaning, memory, and development in Fuzzy-Trace Theory

PubMed Central

Reyna, Valerie F.

2014-01-01

Combining meaning, memory, and development, the perennially popular topic of intuition can be approached in a new way. Fuzzy-trace theory integrates these topics by distinguishing between meaning-based gist representations, which support fuzzy (yet advanced) intuition, and superficial verbatim representations of information, which support precise analysis. Here, I review the counterintuitive findings that led to the development of the theory and its most recent extensions to the neuroscience of risky decision making. These findings include memory interference (worse verbatim memory is associated with better reasoning); nonnumerical framing (framing effects increase when numbers are deleted from decision problems); developmental decreases in gray matter and increases in brain connectivity; developmental reversals in memory, judgment, and decision making (heuristics and biases based on gist increase from childhood to adulthood, challenging conceptions of rationality); and selective attention effects that provide critical tests comparing fuzzy-trace theory, expected utility theory, and its variants (e.g., prospect theory). Surprising implications for judgment and decision making in real life are also discussed, notably, that adaptive decision making relies mainly on gist-based intuition in law, medicine, and public health. PMID:25530822

A new intuitionism: Meaning, memory, and development in Fuzzy-Trace Theory.

PubMed

Reyna, Valerie F

2012-05-01

Combining meaning, memory, and development, the perennially popular topic of intuition can be approached in a new way. Fuzzy-trace theory integrates these topics by distinguishing between meaning-based gist representations, which support fuzzy (yet advanced) intuition, and superficial verbatim representations of information, which support precise analysis. Here, I review the counterintuitive findings that led to the development of the theory and its most recent extensions to the neuroscience of risky decision making. These findings include memory interference (worse verbatim memory is associated with better reasoning); nonnumerical framing (framing effects increase when numbers are deleted from decision problems); developmental decreases in gray matter and increases in brain connectivity; developmental reversals in memory, judgment, and decision making (heuristics and biases based on gist increase from childhood to adulthood, challenging conceptions of rationality); and selective attention effects that provide critical tests comparing fuzzy-trace theory, expected utility theory, and its variants (e.g., prospect theory). Surprising implications for judgment and decision making in real life are also discussed, notably, that adaptive decision making relies mainly on gist-based intuition in law, medicine, and public health.

Empirically derived guidance for social scientists to influence environmental policy

PubMed Central

Brown, Katrina; Crissman, Charles; De Young, Cassandra; Gooch, Margaret; James, Craig; Jessen, Sabine; Johnson, Dave; Marshall, Paul; Wachenfeld, Dave; Wrigley, Damian

2017-01-01

Failure to stem trends of ecological disruption and associated loss of ecosystem services worldwide is partly due to the inadequate integration of the human dimension into environmental decision-making. Decision-makers need knowledge of the human dimension of resource systems and of the social consequences of decision-making if environmental management is to be effective and adaptive. Social scientists have a central role to play, but little guidance exists to help them influence decision-making processes. We distil 348 years of cumulative experience shared by 31 environmental experts across three continents into advice for social scientists seeking to increase their influence in the environmental policy arena. Results focus on the importance of process, engagement, empathy and acumen and reveal the importance of understanding and actively participating in policy processes through co-producing knowledge and building trust. The insights gained during this research might empower a science-driven cultural change in science-policy relations for the routine integration of the human dimension in environmental decision making; ultimately for an improved outlook for earth’s ecosystems and the billions of people that depend on them. PMID:28278238

CREAT Risk Assessment Application for Water Utilities

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

CREAT allows users to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on their utility and to evaluate adaptation options to address them using both traditional risk assessment and scenario-based decision making.

New care home admission following hospitalisation: How do older people, families and professionals make decisions about discharge destination? A case study narrative analysis.

PubMed

Rhynas, Sarah J; Garrido, Azucena Garcia; Burton, Jennifer K; Logan, Gemma; MacArthur, Juliet

2018-03-24

To gain an in-depth understanding of the decision-making processes involved in the discharge of older people admitted to hospital from home and discharged to a care home, as described in the case records. The decision for an older person to move into a care home is significant and life-changing. The discharge planning literature for older people highlights the integral role of nurses in supporting and facilitating effective discharge. However, little research has been undertaken to explore the experiences of those discharged from hospital to a care home or the processes involved in decision-making. A purposive sample of 10 cases was selected from a cohort of 100 individuals admitted to hospital from home and discharged to a care home. Cases were selected to highlight important personal, relational and structural factors thought to affect the decision-making process. Narrative case studies were created and were thematically analysed to explore the perspectives of each stakeholder group and the conceptualisations of risk which influenced decision-making. Care home discharge decision-making is a complex process involving stakeholders with a range of expertise, experience and perspectives. Decisions take time and considerable involvement of families and the multidisciplinary team. There were significant deficits in documentation which limit the understanding of the process and the patient's voice is often absent from case records. The experiences of older people, families and multidisciplinary team members making care home decisions in the hospital setting require further exploration to identify and define best practice. Nurses have a critical role in the involvement of older people making discharge decisions in hospital, improved documentation of the patient's voice is essential. Health and social care systems must allow older people time to make significant decisions about their living arrangements, adapting to changing medical and social needs. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Allocation of Public Resources for Psychological Therapy between Types of Mental Health Condition: Towards Structural Balance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tustin, Don

2009-01-01

This paper addresses issues of allocating public resources efficiently between mental health conditions that are associated with different levels of disability, and presents an adaptation of an established framework to help decision-making in this area. The adapted framework refers to psychological interventions that are universal, indicated,…

Model-based scenario planning to develop climate change adaptation strategies for rare plant populations in grassland reserves

Treesearch

Laura Phillips-Mao; Susan M. Galatowitsch; Stephanie A. Snyder; Robert G. Haight

2016-01-01

Incorporating climate change into conservation decision-making at site and population scales is challenging due to uncertainties associated with localized climate change impacts and population responses to multiple interacting impacts and adaptation strategies. We explore the use of spatially explicit population models to facilitate scenario analysis, a conservation...

EXSPRT: An Expert Systems Approach to Computer-Based Adaptive Testing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frick, Theodore W.; And Others

Expert systems can be used to aid decision making. A computerized adaptive test (CAT) is one kind of expert system, although it is not commonly recognized as such. A new approach, termed EXSPRT, was devised that combines expert systems reasoning and sequential probability ratio test stopping rules. EXSPRT-R uses random selection of test items,…

Impacts of Agricultural Decision Making and Adaptive Management on Food Security in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caylor, K. K.; Evans, T. P.; Estes, L. D.; Sheffield, J.; Plale, B. A.; Attari, S.

2014-12-01

Despite massive investments in food aid, agricultural extension, and seed/fertilizer subsidies, nearly 1 billion people in the developing world are food insecure and vulnerable to climate variability. Sub-Saharan Africa is most vulnerable, as approximately 25% of its people are undernourished (FAO/FAOSTAT 2013) and 96% of its cropland is rainfed (FAO 2002). The ability of subsistence farmers to respond to changes in water availability involves both inter-and intra-seasonal adaptation. Adaptive capacity diminishes over the season as decisions are made, resources are used, and the set of possible futures becomes restricted. Assessing the intra-seasonal adaptive capacity of smallholders requires integrating physical models of hydrological and agricultural dynamics with farmer decision-making at fine temporal (e.g. weekly) and spatial (e.g. crop field) scales. However, there is an intrinsic challenge to modeling the dynamics of these sociohydrologic systems, because important and uncharacterized spatial and temporal scale mismatches exist between the level at which the water resource is best understood and the level at which human dynamics are more predictable. For example, the skill of current process-based land surface models is primarily confined to short-term (daily to weekly), national- to regional-scale assessments, and reliable agricultural yield estimates and forecasts for small-scale farming systems remain elusive. In contrast, process-based social science modeling has focused on agent-based approaches that generate fine-scale (individual to community) dynamics over rather coarse time scales (yearly to decadal). A major obstacle to addressing this mismatch is the fundamental fact that the highest skill domain of one framework is essentially unpredictable in the other. We present a coupled sociohydrological observation framework designed to addressing this gap, and demonstrate its utility to understand relationships between climate variability, decision making, and crop production for subsistence agriculturalists in Kenya and Zambia.

Integrated climate and land change research to improve decision-making and resource management in Southern Africa: The SASSCAL approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmschrot, J.; Olwoch, J. M.

2017-12-01

The ability of countries in southern Africa to jointly respond to climate challenges with scientifically informed and evidence-based actions and policy decisions remains low due to limited scientific research capacity and infrastructure. The Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL; www.sasscal.org) addresses this gap by implementing a high-level framework to guide research and innovation investments in climate change and adaptive land management interventions in Southern Africa. With a strong climate service component as cross-cutting topic, SASSCAL's focus is to improve the understanding of climate and land management change impacts on the natural and socio-economic environment in Southern Africa. The paper presents a variety of SASSCAL driven activities which contribute to better understand climate and long-term environmental change dynamics at various temporal and spatial scales in Southern Afrika and how these activities are linked to support research and decision-making to optimize agricultural practices as well as sustainable environmental and water resources management. To provide consistent and reliable climate information for Southern Africa, SASSCAL offers various climate services ranging from real-time climate observation across the region utilizing the SASSCAL WeatherNet to regional climate change analysis and modelling efforts at seasonal-to-decadal timescales using climate data from various sources. SASSCAL also offers the current state of the environment in terms of recent data on changes in the environment that are necessary for setting appropriate adaptation strategies . The paper will further demonstrate how these services are utilized for interdisciplinary research on the impact of climate change on natural resources and socio-economic development in the SASSCAL countries and how this knowledge can be effectively used to mitigate and adapt to climate change by informed decision-making from farm to regional level.

From climate model ensembles to climate change impacts and adaptation: A case study of water resource management in the southwest of England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Ana; Fung, Fai; New, Mark; Watts, Glenn; Weston, Alan; Wilby, Robert L.

2009-08-01

The majority of climate change impacts and adaptation studies so far have been based on at most a few deterministic realizations of future climate, usually representing different emissions scenarios. Large ensembles of climate models are increasingly available either as ensembles of opportunity or perturbed physics ensembles, providing a wealth of additional data that is potentially useful for improving adaptation strategies to climate change. Because of the novelty of this ensemble information, there is little previous experience of practical applications or of the added value of this information for impacts and adaptation decision making. This paper evaluates the value of perturbed physics ensembles of climate models for understanding and planning public water supply under climate change. We deliberately select water resource models that are already used by water supply companies and regulators on the assumption that uptake of information from large ensembles of climate models will be more likely if it does not involve significant investment in new modeling tools and methods. We illustrate the methods with a case study on the Wimbleball water resource zone in the southwest of England. This zone is sufficiently simple to demonstrate the utility of the approach but with enough complexity to allow a variety of different decisions to be made. Our research shows that the additional information contained in the climate model ensemble provides a better understanding of the possible ranges of future conditions, compared to the use of single-model scenarios. Furthermore, with careful presentation, decision makers will find the results from large ensembles of models more accessible and be able to more easily compare the merits of different management options and the timing of different adaptation. The overhead in additional time and expertise for carrying out the impacts analysis will be justified by the increased quality of the decision-making process. We remark that even though we have focused our study on a water resource system in the United Kingdom, our conclusions about the added value of climate model ensembles in guiding adaptation decisions can be generalized to other sectors and geographical regions.

America's Climate Choices: Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilbanks, T.; Yohe, G.; Mengelt, C.; Casola, J.

2010-12-01

At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies that the nation can take to respond to climate change. As part of this suite of activities, this study assessed, this study assessed how the nation can begin to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Much of the nation’s experience to date in managing and protecting its people, resources, and infrastructure is based on the historic record of climate variability during a period of relatively stable climate. Adaptation to climate change calls for a new paradigm - one that considers a range of possible future climate conditions and associated impacts. The Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change report calls for action at all levels of government, NGOs, and the private sector to assess vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change and identify options for adaptation. Current adaptation efforts are hampered by a lack of solid information about the benefits, costs, and effectiveness of various adaptation options, by uncertainty about future climate change impacts at a scale necessary for decision-making, and by a lack of coordination. The report outlines a risk management framework that can be applied to assess vulnerabilities, compare and evaluate potential adaptation options, recognizing that decision makers across the country are likely to pursue a diverse set of adaptation measures. A major research effort is needed to improve knowledge about current and future vulnerabilities, explore new adaptation options, and better inform adaptation decisions. Therefore, the report also emphasizes the need to continually re-assess adaptation decisions as the experience and knowledge regarding effective adaptation evolves. A national adaptation strategy is needed in which the federal government would support and enhance adaptation activities undertaken by state, local, tribal, and private entities; identify and modify policies that might provide incentives for maladaptive behavior; bolster scientific research regarding adaptation; and encourage adaptation on a global scale through national programs with international components.

Decision Making Methodology to Mitigate Damage From Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Imja Lake in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKinney, D. C.; Cuellar, A. D.

2015-12-01

Climate change has accelerated glacial retreat in high altitude glaciated regions of Nepal leading to the growth and formation of glacier lakes. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) are sudden events triggered by an earthquake, moraine failure or other shock that causes a sudden outflow of water. These floods are catastrophic because of their sudden onset, the difficulty predicting them, and enormous quantity of water and debris rapidly flooding downstream areas. Imja Lake in the Himalaya of Nepal has experienced accelerated growth since it first appeared in the 1960s. Communities threatened by a flood from Imja Lake have advocated for projects to adapt to the increasing threat of a GLOF. Nonetheless, discussions surrounding projects for Imja have not included a rigorous analysis of the potential consequences of a flood, probability of an event, or costs of mitigation projects in part because this information is unknown or uncertain. This work presents a demonstration of a decision making methodology developed to rationally analyze the risks posed by Imja Lake and the various adaptation projects proposed using available information. In this work the authors use decision analysis, data envelopement analysis (DEA), and sensitivity analysis to assess proposed adaptation measures that would mitigate damage in downstream communities from a GLOF. We use an existing hydrodynamic model of the at-risk area to determine how adaptation projects will affect downstream flooding and estimate fatalities using an empirical method developed for dam failures. The DEA methodology allows us to estimate the value of a statistical life implied by each project given the cost of the project and number of lives saved to determine which project is the most efficient. In contrast the decision analysis methodology requires fatalities to be assigned a cost but allows the inclusion of uncertainty in the decision making process. We compare the output of these two methodologies and determine the sensitivity of the conclusions to changes in uncertain input parameters including project cost, value of a statistical life, and time to a GLOF event.

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, D. L.

2015-01-01

Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

Attraction Effect in Risky Choice Can Be Explained by Subjective Distance Between Choice Alternatives.

PubMed

Mohr, Peter N C; Heekeren, Hauke R; Rieskamp, Jörg

2017-08-21

Individuals make decisions under risk throughout daily life. Standard models of economic decision making typically assume that people evaluate choice options independently. There is, however, substantial evidence showing that this independence assumption is frequently violated in decision making without risk. The present study extends these findings to the domain of decision making under risk. To explain the independence violations, we adapted a sequential sampling model, namely Multialternative Decision Field Theory (MDFT), to decision making under risk and showed how this model can account for the observed preference shifts. MDFT not only better predicts choices compared with the standard Expected Utility Theory, but it also explains individual differences in the size of the observed context effect. Evidence in favor of the chosen option, as predicted by MDFT, was positively correlated with brain activity in the medial orbitofrontal cortex (mOFC) and negatively correlated with brain activity in the anterior insula (aINS). From a neuroscience perspective, the results of the present study show that specific brain regions, such as the mOFC and aINS, not only code the value or risk of a single choice option but also code the evidence in favor of the best option compared with other available choice options.

ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

Many faces of rationality: Implications of the great rationality debate for clinical decision-making.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Elqayam, Shira

2017-10-01

Given that more than 30% of healthcare costs are wasted on inappropriate care, suboptimal care is increasingly connected to the quality of medical decisions. It has been argued that personal decisions are the leading cause of death, and 80% of healthcare expenditures result from physicians' decisions. Therefore, improving healthcare necessitates improving medical decisions, ie, making decisions (more) rational. Drawing on writings from The Great Rationality Debate from the fields of philosophy, economics, and psychology, we identify core ingredients of rationality commonly encountered across various theoretical models. Rationality is typically classified under umbrella of normative (addressing the question how people "should" or "ought to" make their decisions) and descriptive theories of decision-making (which portray how people actually make their decisions). Normative theories of rational thought of relevance to medicine include epistemic theories that direct practice of evidence-based medicine and expected utility theory, which provides the basis for widely used clinical decision analyses. Descriptive theories of rationality of direct relevance to medical decision-making include bounded rationality, argumentative theory of reasoning, adaptive rationality, dual processing model of rationality, regret-based rationality, pragmatic/substantive rationality, and meta-rationality. For the first time, we provide a review of wide range of theories and models of rationality. We showed that what is "rational" behaviour under one rationality theory may be irrational under the other theory. We also showed that context is of paramount importance to rationality and that no one model of rationality can possibly fit all contexts. We suggest that in context-poor situations, such as policy decision-making, normative theories based on expected utility informed by best research evidence may provide the optimal approach to medical decision-making, whereas in the context-rich circumstances other types of rationality, informed by human cognitive architecture and driven by intuition and emotions such as the aim to minimize regret, may provide better solution to the problem at hand. The choice of theory under which we operate is important as it determines both policy and our individual decision-making. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A cross-sectional survey of supports for evidence-informed decision-making in healthcare organisations: a research protocol.

PubMed

Ouimet, Mathieu; Lavis, John N; Léon, Grégory; Ellen, Moriah E; Bédard, Pierre-Olivier; Grimshaw, Jeremy M; Gagnon, Marie-Pierre

2014-10-09

This protocol builds on the development of a) a framework that identified the various supports (i.e. positions, activities, interventions) that a healthcare organisation or health system can implement for evidence-informed decision-making (EIDM) and b) a qualitative study that showed the current mix of supports that some Canadian healthcare organisations have in place and the ones that are perceived to facilitate the use of research evidence in decision-making. Based on these findings, we developed a web survey to collect cross-sectional data about the specific supports that regional health authorities and hospitals in two Canadian provinces (Ontario and Quebec) have in place to facilitate EIDM. This paper describes the methods for a cross-sectional web survey among 32 regional health authorities and 253 hospitals in the provinces of Quebec and Ontario (Canada) to collect data on the current mix of organisational supports that these organisations have in place to facilitate evidence-informed decision-making. The data will be obtained through a two-step survey design: a 10-min survey among CEOs to identify key units and individuals in regard to our objectives (step 1) and a 20-min survey among managers of the key units identified in step 1 to collect information about the activities performed by their unit regarding the acquisition, assessment, adaptation and/or dissemination of research evidence in decision-making (step 2). The study will target three types of informants: CEOs, library/documentation centre managers and all other key managers whose unit is involved in the acquisition, assessment, adaptation/packaging and/or dissemination of research evidence in decision-making. We developed an innovative data collection system to increase the likelihood that only the best-informed respondent available answers each survey question. The reporting of the results will be done using descriptive statistics of supports by organisation type and by province. This study will be the first to collect and report large-scale cross-sectional data on the current mix of supports health system organisations in the two most populous Canadian provinces have in place for evidence-informed decision-making. The study will also provide useful information to researchers on how to collect organisation-level data with reduced risk of self-reporting bias.

Adaptive Multi-scale PHM for Robotic Assembly Processes

PubMed Central

Choo, Benjamin Y.; Beling, Peter A.; LaViers, Amy E.; Marvel, Jeremy A.; Weiss, Brian A.

2017-01-01

Adaptive multiscale prognostics and health management (AM-PHM) is a methodology designed to support PHM in smart manufacturing systems. As a rule, PHM information is not used in high-level decision-making in manufacturing systems. AM-PHM leverages and integrates component-level PHM information with hierarchical relationships across the component, machine, work cell, and production line levels in a manufacturing system. The AM-PHM methodology enables the creation of actionable prognostic and diagnostic intelligence up and down the manufacturing process hierarchy. Decisions are made with the knowledge of the current and projected health state of the system at decision points along the nodes of the hierarchical structure. A description of the AM-PHM methodology with a simulated canonical robotic assembly process is presented. PMID:28664161

Psychopathic individuals exhibit but do not avoid regret during counterfactual decision making.

PubMed

Baskin-Sommers, Arielle; Stuppy-Sullivan, Allison M; Buckholtz, Joshua W

2016-12-13

Psychopathy is associated with persistent antisocial behavior and a striking lack of regret for the consequences of that behavior. Although explanatory models for psychopathy have largely focused on deficits in affective responsiveness, recent work indicates that aberrant value-based decision making may also play a role. On that basis, some have suggested that psychopathic individuals may be unable to effectively use prospective simulations to update action value estimates during cost-benefit decision making. However, the specific mechanisms linking valuation, affective deficits, and maladaptive decision making in psychopathy remain unclear. Using a counterfactual decision-making paradigm, we found that individuals who scored high on a measure of psychopathy were as or more likely than individuals low on psychopathy to report negative affect in response to regret-inducing counterfactual outcomes. However, despite exhibiting intact affective regret sensitivity, they did not use prospective regret signals to guide choice behavior. In turn, diminished behavioral regret sensitivity predicted a higher number of prior incarcerations, and moderated the relationship between psychopathy and incarceration history. These findings raise the possibility that maladaptive decision making in psychopathic individuals is not a consequence of their inability to generate or experience negative emotions. Rather, antisocial behavior in psychopathy may be driven by a deficit in the generation of forward models that integrate information about rules, costs, and goals with stimulus value representations to promote adaptive behavior.

Psychopathic individuals exhibit but do not avoid regret during counterfactual decision making

PubMed Central

Baskin-Sommers, Arielle; Stuppy-Sullivan, Allison M.; Buckholtz, Joshua W.

2016-01-01

Psychopathy is associated with persistent antisocial behavior and a striking lack of regret for the consequences of that behavior. Although explanatory models for psychopathy have largely focused on deficits in affective responsiveness, recent work indicates that aberrant value-based decision making may also play a role. On that basis, some have suggested that psychopathic individuals may be unable to effectively use prospective simulations to update action value estimates during cost–benefit decision making. However, the specific mechanisms linking valuation, affective deficits, and maladaptive decision making in psychopathy remain unclear. Using a counterfactual decision-making paradigm, we found that individuals who scored high on a measure of psychopathy were as or more likely than individuals low on psychopathy to report negative affect in response to regret-inducing counterfactual outcomes. However, despite exhibiting intact affective regret sensitivity, they did not use prospective regret signals to guide choice behavior. In turn, diminished behavioral regret sensitivity predicted a higher number of prior incarcerations, and moderated the relationship between psychopathy and incarceration history. These findings raise the possibility that maladaptive decision making in psychopathic individuals is not a consequence of their inability to generate or experience negative emotions. Rather, antisocial behavior in psychopathy may be driven by a deficit in the generation of forward models that integrate information about rules, costs, and goals with stimulus value representations to promote adaptive behavior. PMID:27911790

Integrating modeling, monitoring, and management to reduce critical uncertainties in water resource decision making.

PubMed

Peterson, James T; Freeman, Mary C

2016-12-01

Stream ecosystems provide multiple, valued services to society, including water supply, waste assimilation, recreation, and habitat for diverse and productive biological communities. Managers striving to sustain these services in the face of changing climate, land uses, and water demands need tools to assess the potential effectiveness of alternative management actions, and often, the resulting tradeoffs between competing objectives. Integrating predictive modeling with monitoring data in an adaptive management framework provides a process by which managers can reduce model uncertainties and thus improve the scientific bases for subsequent decisions. We demonstrate an integration of monitoring data with a dynamic, metapopulation model developed to assess effects of streamflow alteration on fish occupancy in a southeastern US stream system. Although not extensive (collected over three years at nine sites), the monitoring data allowed us to assess and update support for alternative population dynamic models using model probabilities and Bayes rule. We then use the updated model weights to estimate the effects of water withdrawal on stream fish communities and demonstrate how feedback in the form of monitoring data can be used to improve water resource decision making. We conclude that investment in more strategic monitoring, guided by a priori model predictions under alternative hypotheses and an adaptive sampling design, could substantially improve the information available to guide decision-making and management for ecosystem services from lotic systems. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A rapidly changing global medicines environment: How adaptable are funding decision-making systems?

PubMed

Leopold, Christine; Morgan, Steven G; Wagner, Anita K

2017-06-01

With the launch of very highly priced therapies and sudden price increases of generics, pressures on health systems have drastically increased. We aimed to elicit opinions of key decision makers responsible for national assessment and funding decisions on their experiences to adapt to these new realities. Through interviews with decision makers of pharmaceutical assessment and/or funding agencies, we describe the challenges systems are currently facing, systems' responses and systems' characteristics facilitating or hindering responses to changes and overarching topics for the future. Among the most common challenges are increased funding pressures, increased uncertainty and lack of transparency in decision-making. Systems' responses include utilization management, changing of assessment processes, stakeholder engagement and a focus on outcomes and on coordinated negotiations. Integrated delivery systems, fixed health care budgets and geographic and historical characteristics facilitate or sometimes hinder responses to change. Future policy emphasis lays on expanding data structures, managing the exit of drugs funded early, and implementing processes for communications with patients and the public. Going forward emphasis has to be given to structured communications with all stakeholders with a specific emphasis on the broader public and patients about financial limits and priority setting in health care. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating trade-offs in bull trout reintroduction strategies using structured decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brignon, William R.; Peterson, James T.; Dunham, Jason B.; Schaller, Howard A.; Schreck, Carl B.

2018-01-01

Structured decision making allows reintroduction decisions to be made despite uncertainty by linking reintroduction goals with alternative management actions through predictive models of ecological processes. We developed a decision model to evaluate the trade-offs between six bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) reintroduction decisions with the goal of maximizing the number of adults in the recipient population without reducing the donor population to an unacceptable level. Sensitivity analyses suggested that the decision identity and outcome were most influenced by survival parameters that result in increased adult abundance in the recipient population, increased juvenile survival in the donor and recipient populations, adult fecundity rates, and sex ratio. The decision was least sensitive to survival parameters associated with the captive-reared population, the effect of naivety on released individuals, and juvenile carrying capacity of the reintroduced population. The model and sensitivity analyses can serve as the foundation for formal adaptive management and improved effectiveness, efficiency, and transparency of bull trout reintroduction decisions.

Heuristic-based information acquisition and decision making among pilots.

PubMed

Wiggins, Mark W; Bollwerk, Sandra

2006-01-01

This research was designed to examine the impact of heuristic-based approaches to the acquisition of task-related information on the selection of an optimal alternative during simulated in-flight decision making. The work integrated features of naturalistic and normative decision making and strategies of information acquisition within a computer-based, decision support framework. The study comprised two phases, the first of which involved familiarizing pilots with three different heuristic-based strategies of information acquisition: frequency, elimination by aspects, and majority of confirming decisions. The second stage enabled participants to choose one of the three strategies of information acquisition to resolve a fourth (choice) scenario. The results indicated that task-oriented experience, rather than the information acquisition strategies, predicted the selection of the optimal alternative. It was also evident that of the three strategies available, the elimination by aspects information acquisition strategy was preferred by most participants. It was concluded that task-oriented experience, rather than the process of information acquisition, predicted task accuracy during the decision-making task. It was also concluded that pilots have a preference for one particular approach to information acquisition. Applications of outcomes of this research include the development of decision support systems that adapt to the information-processing capabilities and preferences of users.

Conflict adaptation and congruency sequence effects to social-emotional stimuli in individuals with autism spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Worsham, Whitney; Gray, Whitney E; Larson, Michael J; South, Mikle

2015-11-01

The modification of performance following conflict can be measured using conflict adaptation tasks thought to measure the change in the allocation of cognitive resources in order to reduce conflict interference and improve performance. While previous studies have suggested atypical processing during nonsocial cognitive control tasks, conflict adaptation (i.e. congruency sequence effects) for social-emotional stimuli have not been previously studied in autism spectrum disorder. A total of 32 participants diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder and 27 typically developing matched controls completed an emotional Stroop conflict task that required the classification of facial affect while simultaneously ignoring an overlaid affective word. Both groups showed behavioral evidence for emotional conflict adaptation based on response times and accuracy rates. However, the autism spectrum disorder group demonstrated a speed-accuracy trade-off manifested through significantly faster response times and decreased accuracy rates on trials containing conflict between the emotional face and the overlaid emotional word. Reduced selective attention toward socially relevant information may bias individuals with autism spectrum disorder toward more rapid processing and decision making even when conflict is present. Nonetheless, the loss of important information from the social stimuli reduces decision-making accuracy, negatively affecting the ability to adapt both cognitively and emotionally when conflict arises. © The Author(s) 2014.

Discrete event simulation for healthcare organizations: a tool for decision making.

PubMed

Hamrock, Eric; Paige, Kerrie; Parks, Jennifer; Scheulen, James; Levin, Scott

2013-01-01

Healthcare organizations face challenges in efficiently accommodating increased patient demand with limited resources and capacity. The modern reimbursement environment prioritizes the maximization of operational efficiency and the reduction of unnecessary costs (i.e., waste) while maintaining or improving quality. As healthcare organizations adapt, significant pressures are placed on leaders to make difficult operational and budgetary decisions. In lieu of hard data, decision makers often base these decisions on subjective information. Discrete event simulation (DES), a computerized method of imitating the operation of a real-world system (e.g., healthcare delivery facility) over time, can provide decision makers with an evidence-based tool to develop and objectively vet operational solutions prior to implementation. DES in healthcare commonly focuses on (1) improving patient flow, (2) managing bed capacity, (3) scheduling staff, (4) managing patient admission and scheduling procedures, and (5) using ancillary resources (e.g., labs, pharmacies). This article describes applicable scenarios, outlines DES concepts, and describes the steps required for development. An original DES model developed to examine crowding and patient flow for staffing decision making at an urban academic emergency department serves as a practical example.

Research on AHP decision algorithms based on BP algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Ning; Guan, Jianhe

2017-10-01

Decision making is the thinking activity that people choose or judge, and scientific decision-making has always been a hot issue in the field of research. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a simple and practical multi-criteria and multi-objective decision-making method that combines quantitative and qualitative and can show and calculate the subjective judgment in digital form. In the process of decision analysis using AHP method, the rationality of the two-dimensional judgment matrix has a great influence on the decision result. However, in dealing with the real problem, the judgment matrix produced by the two-dimensional comparison is often inconsistent, that is, it does not meet the consistency requirements. BP neural network algorithm is an adaptive nonlinear dynamic system. It has powerful collective computing ability and learning ability. It can perfect the data by constantly modifying the weights and thresholds of the network to achieve the goal of minimizing the mean square error. In this paper, the BP algorithm is used to deal with the consistency of the two-dimensional judgment matrix of the AHP.

Opioid Modulation of Value-Based Decision-Making in Healthy Humans.

PubMed

Eikemo, Marie; Biele, Guido; Willoch, Frode; Thomsen, Lotte; Leknes, Siri

2017-08-01

Modifying behavior to maximize reward is integral to adaptive decision-making. In rodents, the μ-opioid receptor (MOR) system encodes motivation and preference for high-value rewards. Yet it remains unclear whether and how human MORs contribute to value-based decision-making. We reasoned that if the human MOR system modulates value-based choice, this would be reflected by opposite effects of agonist and antagonist drugs. In a double-blind pharmacological cross-over study, 30 healthy men received morphine (10 mg), placebo, and the opioid antagonist naltrexone (50 mg). They completed a two-alternative decision-making task known to induce a considerable bias towards the most frequently rewarded response option. To quantify MOR involvement in this bias, we fitted accuracy and reaction time data with the drift-diffusion model (DDM) of decision-making. The DDM analysis revealed the expected bidirectional drug effects for two decision subprocesses. MOR stimulation with morphine increased the preference for the stimulus with high-reward probability (shift in starting point). Compared to placebo, morphine also increased, and naltrexone reduced, the efficiency of evidence accumulation. Since neither drug affected motor-coordination, speed-accuracy trade-off, or subjective state (indeed participants were still blinded after the third session), we interpret the MOR effects on evidence accumulation efficiency as a consequence of changes in effort exerted in the task. Together, these findings support a role for the human MOR system in value-based choice by tuning decision-making towards high-value rewards across stimulus domains.

Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Brooke, Cassandra

2008-12-01

The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.

The design of patient decision support interventions: addressing the theory-practice gap.

PubMed

Elwyn, Glyn; Stiel, Mareike; Durand, Marie-Anne; Boivin, Jacky

2011-08-01

Although an increasing number of decision support interventions for patients (including decision aids) are produced, few make explicit use of theory. We argue the importance of using theory to guide design. The aim of this work was to address this theory-practice gap and to examine how a range of selected decision-making theories could inform the design and evaluation of decision support interventions. We reviewed the decision-making literature and selected relevant theories. We assessed their key principles, theoretical pathways and predictions in order to determine how they could inform the design of two core components of decision support interventions, namely, information and deliberation components and to specify theory-based outcome measures. Eight theories were selected: (1) the expected utility theory; (2) the conflict model of decision making; (3) prospect theory; (4) fuzzy-trace theory; (5) the differentiation and consolidation theory; (6) the ecological rationality theory; (7) the rational-emotional model of decision avoidance; and finally, (8) the Attend, React, Explain, Adapt model of affective forecasting. Some theories have strong relevance to the information design (e.g. prospect theory); some are more relevant to deliberation processes (conflict theory, differentiation theory and ecological validity). None of the theories in isolation was sufficient to inform the design of all the necessary components of decision support interventions. It was also clear that most work in theory-building has focused on explaining or describing how humans think rather than on how tools could be designed to help humans make good decisions. It is not surprising therefore that a large theory-practice gap exists as we consider decision support for patients. There was no relevant theory that integrated all the necessary contributions to the task of making good decisions in collaborative interactions. Initiatives such as the International Patient Decision Aids Standards Collaboration influence standards for the design of decision support interventions. However, this analysis points to the need to undertake more work in providing theoretical foundations for these interventions. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Agent-based Decision Support System for the Third Generation Distributed Dynamic Decision-making (DDD-III) Simulator

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-06-01

suitable form of organizational adaptation is effective organizational diagnosis and analysis. The organizational diagnosis and analysis involve...related to the mission environment, organizational structure, and strategy is imperative for an effective and efficient organizational diagnosis . The...not easily articulated nor expressed otherwise. These displays are crucial to facilitate effective organizational diagnosis and analysis, and

Age and self-relevance effects on information search during decision making.

PubMed

Hess, Thomas M; Queen, Tara L; Ennis, Gilda E

2013-09-01

We investigated how information search strategies used to support decision making were influenced by self-related implications of the task to the individual. Consistent with the notion of selective engagement, we hypothesized that increased self-relevance would result in more adaptive search behaviors and that this effect would be stronger in older adults than in younger adults. We examined search behaviors in 79 younger and 81 older adults using a process-tracing procedure with 2 different decision tasks. The impact of motivation (i.e., self-related task implications) was examined by manipulating social accountability and the age-related relevance of the task. Although age differences in search strategies were not great, older adults were more likely than younger adults to use simpler strategies in contexts with minimal self-implications. Contrary to expectations, young and old alike were more likely to use noncompensatory than compensatory strategies, even when engaged in systematic search, with education being the most important determinant of search behavior. The results support the notion that older adults are adaptive decision makers and that factors other than age may be more important determinants of performance in situations where knowledge can be used to support performance.

A model of adaptive decision-making from representation of information environment by quantum fields.

PubMed

Bagarello, F; Haven, E; Khrennikov, A

2017-11-13

We present the mathematical model of decision-making (DM) of agents acting in a complex and uncertain environment (combining huge variety of economical, financial, behavioural and geopolitical factors). To describe interaction of agents with it, we apply the formalism of quantum field theory (QTF). Quantum fields are a purely informational nature. The QFT model can be treated as a far relative of the expected utility theory, where the role of utility is played by adaptivity to an environment (bath). However, this sort of utility-adaptivity cannot be represented simply as a numerical function. The operator representation in Hilbert space is used and adaptivity is described as in quantum dynamics. We are especially interested in stabilization of solutions for sufficiently large time. The outputs of this stabilization process, probabilities for possible choices, are treated in the framework of classical DM. To connect classical and quantum DM, we appeal to Quantum Bayesianism. We demonstrate the quantum-like interference effect in DM, which is exhibited as a violation of the formula of total probability, and hence the classical Bayesian inference scheme.This article is part of the themed issue 'Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'. © 2017 The Author(s).

A model of adaptive decision-making from representation of information environment by quantum fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagarello, F.; Haven, E.; Khrennikov, A.

2017-10-01

We present the mathematical model of decision-making (DM) of agents acting in a complex and uncertain environment (combining huge variety of economical, financial, behavioural and geopolitical factors). To describe interaction of agents with it, we apply the formalism of quantum field theory (QTF). Quantum fields are a purely informational nature. The QFT model can be treated as a far relative of the expected utility theory, where the role of utility is played by adaptivity to an environment (bath). However, this sort of utility-adaptivity cannot be represented simply as a numerical function. The operator representation in Hilbert space is used and adaptivity is described as in quantum dynamics. We are especially interested in stabilization of solutions for sufficiently large time. The outputs of this stabilization process, probabilities for possible choices, are treated in the framework of classical DM. To connect classical and quantum DM, we appeal to Quantum Bayesianism. We demonstrate the quantum-like interference effect in DM, which is exhibited as a violation of the formula of total probability, and hence the classical Bayesian inference scheme. This article is part of the themed issue `Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'.

Stakeholder Choices in Adaptation and Public Finance Planning for Coastal Hazard Mitigation in a Changing World: Highlights from Case Studies in Santos, Brazil, Broward County, FL, US and Selsey, UK (The METROPOLE Project)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muller-Karger, F. E.; Merrill, S.; Pelling, M.; Marengo, J. A.; Reynolds, C. J.; Langbehn, K.; Paterson, S.; Nunes, L. H.; Kartez, J.; Lockman, J. T.

2016-12-01

Better integration of the human dimensions (values, beliefs, cultural identity, place, risk perceptions, communications, decision making) with scientific, technical, and economic data is required to advance effective municipal planning for adaptation to changes that can be expected to occur based on a changing climate. The international METROPOLE project offers practical insights and a path forward for coastal communities around the world with results from applied research carried out by social scientists, natural scientists, and practitioners working in coastal municipalities in Brazil, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Decision makers were interviewed to assess the Adaptive Capacity of their communities, and stakeholders were engaged in workshops to discuss the risks due to projected sea level rise (SLR) in terms of impacts and costs to property. The team investigated the social, cultural, and governance factors that shape decision making. Municipal leaders and local experts selected the SLR scenarios and adaptation options to be modelled using COAST, a state-of-the-art tool. The visualizations and risk maps integrated scientific and local economic data, and illustrated the potential impacts on 10,000 properties in each study area. Stakeholders voted on parameters to determine the cost-benefit ratio of potential adaptation options. Stakeholder priorities for local adaption planning, agreement with the need for increased fees/taxes, and acceptability of possible public finance mechanisms were evaluated with pre- and post-workshop surveys. The research identified similar patterns of adaptation "priorities" and new insight into how stakeholders consider public finance mechanisms for local action, in the context of "fiscal benefits and burdens." The research suggests implications for small towns, land-use policy changes, implementing adaptation options which deliver short and long-term benefits, and, for state and local governments to develop finance policy/mechanisms. Findings will be incorporated into new programs through our partnership with the Florida chapter of the American Planning Association.

Integrating Collaboration, Adaptive Management, and Scenario-Planning to Address Rapid Change: Experiences at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caves, J. K.; Bodner, G.; Simms, K.; Fisher, L.; Robertson, T.

2012-12-01

There is growing recognition that public lands cannot be managed as islands; rather, land management must address the ecological, social, and temporal complexity that often spans jurisdictions and traditional planning horizons. Collaborative decision-making and adaptive management (CAM) have been promoted as methods to reconcile competing societal demands and respond to complex ecosystem dynamics. We present the experiences of land managers and stakeholders in using CAM at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area (LCNCA), a highly valued site under the jurisdiction of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The CAM process at Las Cienegas is marked by strong stakeholder engagement, with four core elements: 1) shared watershed goals with measurable resource objectives; 2) mechanisms to incorporate new information into decision-making; 3) efforts to make information increasingly relevant and reliable; and 4) shared learning to improve both the process and management actions. The combination of stakeholder engagement and adaptive management has led to agreement on contentious issues, more innovative solutions, and more effective land management. Yet the region is now experiencing rapid changes outside managers' control—including climate change, human population growth, and reduced federal budgets—with large but unpredictable impacts on natural resources. While CAM experience provides a strong foundation for making the difficult and contentious management decisions that such changes are likely to require, neither collaboration nor adaptive management provides a sufficient structure for addressing uncontrollable and unpredictable change. As a result, LCNCA is exploring two specific modifications to CAM that may better address emerging challenges, including: 1) Creating nested resource objectives to distinguish between those objectives which may be crucial from those which may hinder a flexible response to climate change, and 2) Incorporating scenario planning into CAM to explore how climate change may interact with other drivers and alter options for the future, to identify robust management, and to prioritize ecological monitoring efforts. The experiences at LCNCA demonstrate how collaboration and adaptive management can be used to improve social and environmental outcomes and, with a few modifications, may help address the complexity and change that threatens to overwhelm even the best efforts to sustain public lands.

Classification of intellectual disability using the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children: Full Scale IQ or General Abilities Index?

PubMed

Koriakin, Taylor A; McCurdy, Mark D; Papazoglou, Aimilia; Pritchard, Alison E; Zabel, T Andrew; Mahone, E Mark; Jacobson, Lisa A

2013-09-01

We examined the implications of using the Full Scale IQ (FSIQ) versus the General Abilities Index (GAI) for determination of intellectual disability using the Wechsler Intelligence Scales for Children, fourth edition (WISC-IV). Children referred for neuropsychological assessment (543 males, 290 females; mean age 10y 5mo, SD 2y 9mo, range 6-16y) were administered the WISC-IV and the Adaptive Behavior Assessment System, second edition (ABAS-II). GAI and FSIQ were highly correlated; however, fewer children were identified as having intellectual disability using GAI (n=159) than when using FSIQ (n=196). Although the 44 children classified as having intellectual disability based upon FSIQ (but not GAI) had significantly higher adaptive functioning scores than those meeting intellectual disability criteria based upon both FSIQ and GAI, mean adaptive scores still fell within the impaired range. FSIQ and GAI were comparable in predicting impairments in adaptive functioning. Using GAI rather than FSIQ in intellectual disability diagnostic decision-making resulted in fewer individuals being diagnosed with intellectual disability; however, the mean GAI of the disqualified individuals was at the upper end of criteria for intellectual impairment (standard score 75), and these individuals remained adaptively impaired. As GAI and FSIQ were similarly predictive of overall adaptive functioning, the use of GAI for intellectual disability diagnostic decision-making may be of limited value. © 2013 Mac Keith Press.

Self-Organized Transport System

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-09-28

This report presents the findings of the simulation model for a self-organized transport system where traffic lights communicate with neighboring traffic lights and make decisions locally to adapt to traffic conditions in real time. The model is insp...

Consultant psychiatrists’ experiences of and attitudes towards shared decision making in antipsychotic prescribing, a qualitative study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Shared decision making represents a clinical consultation model where both clinician and service user are conceptualised as experts; information is shared bilaterally and joint treatment decisions are reached. Little previous research has been conducted to assess experience of this model in psychiatric practice. The current project therefore sought to explore the attitudes and experiences of consultant psychiatrists relating to shared decision making in the prescribing of antipsychotic medications. Methods A qualitative research design allowed the experiences and beliefs of participants in relation to shared decision making to be elicited. Purposive sampling was used to recruit participants from a range of clinical backgrounds and with varying length of clinical experience. A semi-structured interview schedule was utilised and was adapted in subsequent interviews to reflect emergent themes. Data analysis was completed in parallel with interviews in order to guide interview topics and to inform recruitment. A directed analysis method was utilised for interview analysis with themes identified being fitted to a framework identified from the research literature as applicable to the practice of shared decision making. Examples of themes contradictory to, or not adequately explained by, the framework were sought. Results A total of 26 consultant psychiatrists were interviewed. Participants expressed support for the shared decision making model, but also acknowledged that it was necessary to be flexible as the clinical situation dictated. A number of potential barriers to the process were perceived however: The commonest barrier was the clinician’s beliefs regarding the service users’ insight into their mental disorder, presented in some cases as an absolute barrier to shared decision making. In addition factors external to the clinician - service user relationship were identified as impacting on the decision making process, including; environmental factors, financial constraints as well as societal perceptions of mental disorder in general and antipsychotic medication in particular. Conclusions This project has allowed identification of potential barriers to shared decision making in psychiatric practice. Further work is necessary to observe the decision making process in clinical practice and also to identify means in which the identified barriers, in particular ‘lack of insight’, may be more effectively managed. PMID:24886121

Consultant psychiatrists' experiences of and attitudes towards shared decision making in antipsychotic prescribing, a qualitative study.

PubMed

Shepherd, Andrew; Shorthouse, Oliver; Gask, Linda

2014-05-01

Shared decision making represents a clinical consultation model where both clinician and service user are conceptualised as experts; information is shared bilaterally and joint treatment decisions are reached. Little previous research has been conducted to assess experience of this model in psychiatric practice. The current project therefore sought to explore the attitudes and experiences of consultant psychiatrists relating to shared decision making in the prescribing of antipsychotic medications. A qualitative research design allowed the experiences and beliefs of participants in relation to shared decision making to be elicited. Purposive sampling was used to recruit participants from a range of clinical backgrounds and with varying length of clinical experience. A semi-structured interview schedule was utilised and was adapted in subsequent interviews to reflect emergent themes.Data analysis was completed in parallel with interviews in order to guide interview topics and to inform recruitment. A directed analysis method was utilised for interview analysis with themes identified being fitted to a framework identified from the research literature as applicable to the practice of shared decision making. Examples of themes contradictory to, or not adequately explained by, the framework were sought. A total of 26 consultant psychiatrists were interviewed. Participants expressed support for the shared decision making model, but also acknowledged that it was necessary to be flexible as the clinical situation dictated. A number of potential barriers to the process were perceived however: The commonest barrier was the clinician's beliefs regarding the service users' insight into their mental disorder, presented in some cases as an absolute barrier to shared decision making. In addition factors external to the clinician - service user relationship were identified as impacting on the decision making process, including; environmental factors, financial constraints as well as societal perceptions of mental disorder in general and antipsychotic medication in particular. This project has allowed identification of potential barriers to shared decision making in psychiatric practice. Further work is necessary to observe the decision making process in clinical practice and also to identify means in which the identified barriers, in particular 'lack of insight', may be more effectively managed.

Multiple flood vulnerability assessment approach based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and coordinated development degree model.

PubMed

Yang, Weichao; Xu, Kui; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling; Ma, Chao

2018-05-01

Flood is a serious challenge that increasingly affects the residents as well as policymakers. Flood vulnerability assessment is becoming gradually relevant in the world. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to reveal the relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for better flood vulnerability assessment, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) and coordinated development degree model (CDDM). The approach is organized into three parts: establishment of index system, assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and multiple flood vulnerability assessment. Hydrodynamic model and statistical data are employed for the establishment of index system; FCEM is used to evaluate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; and CDDM is applied to express the relationship of the three components of vulnerability. Six multiple flood vulnerability types and four levels are proposed to assess flood vulnerability from multiple perspectives. Then the approach is applied to assess the spatiality of flood vulnerability in Hainan's eastern area, China. Based on the results of multiple flood vulnerability, a decision-making process for rational allocation of limited resources is proposed and applied to the study area. The study shows that multiple flood vulnerability assessment can evaluate vulnerability more completely, and help decision makers learn more information about making decisions in a more comprehensive way. In summary, this study provides a new way for flood vulnerability assessment and disaster prevention decision. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adapting Cognitive Task Analysis to Investigate Clinical Decision Making and Medication Safety Incidents.

PubMed

Russ, Alissa L; Militello, Laura G; Glassman, Peter A; Arthur, Karen J; Zillich, Alan J; Weiner, Michael

2017-05-03

Cognitive task analysis (CTA) can yield valuable insights into healthcare professionals' cognition and inform system design to promote safe, quality care. Our objective was to adapt CTA-the critical decision method, specifically-to investigate patient safety incidents, overcome barriers to implementing this method, and facilitate more widespread use of cognitive task analysis in healthcare. We adapted CTA to facilitate recruitment of healthcare professionals and developed a data collection tool to capture incidents as they occurred. We also leveraged the electronic health record (EHR) to expand data capture and used EHR-stimulated recall to aid reconstruction of safety incidents. We investigated 3 categories of medication-related incidents: adverse drug reactions, drug-drug interactions, and drug-disease interactions. Healthcare professionals submitted incidents, and a subset of incidents was selected for CTA. We analyzed several outcomes to characterize incident capture and completed CTA interviews. We captured 101 incidents. Eighty incidents (79%) met eligibility criteria. We completed 60 CTA interviews, 20 for each incident category. Capturing incidents before interviews allowed us to shorten the interview duration and reduced reliance on healthcare professionals' recall. Incorporating the EHR into CTA enriched data collection. The adapted CTA technique was successful in capturing specific categories of safety incidents. Our approach may be especially useful for investigating safety incidents that healthcare professionals "fix and forget." Our innovations to CTA are expected to expand the application of this method in healthcare and inform a wide range of studies on clinical decision making and patient safety.

Multi-disciplinary assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture to support adaptation decision making in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

2016-04-01

Many existing climate change impact studies, carried out by academic researchers, are disconnected from decision making processes of stakeholders. On the other hand many climate change adaptation projects in developing countries lack a solid evidence base of current and future climate impacts as well as vulnerabilities assessment at different scales. In order to fill this information gap, FAO has developed and implemented a tool "MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change)" in several developing countries such as Morocco, the Philippines and Peru, and recently in Malawi and Zambia. MOSAICC employs a multi-disciplinary assessment approach to addressing climate change impacts and adaptation planning in the agriculture and food security sectors, and integrates five components from different academic disciplines: 1. Statistical downscaling of climate change projections, 2. Yield simulation of major crops at regional scale under climate change, 3. Surface hydrology simulation model, 4. Macroeconomic model, and 5. Forestry model. Furthermore MOSAICC has been developed as a capacity development tool for the national scientists so that they can conduct the country assessment themselves, using their own data, and reflect the outcome into the national adaptation policies. The outputs are nation-wide coverage, disaggregated at sub-national level to support strategic planning, investments and decisions by national policy makers. MOSAICC is designed in such a way to promote stakeholders' participation and strengthen technical capacities in developing countries. The paper presents MOSAICC and projects that used MOSAICC as a tool with case studies from countries.

Integrating Land Cover Modeling and Adaptive Management to Conserve Endangered Species and Reduce Catastrophic Fire Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breininger, David; Duncan, Brean; Eaton, Mitchell; Johnson, Fred; Nichols, James

2014-01-01

Land cover modeling is used to inform land management, but most often via a two-step process where science informs how management alternatives can influence resources and then decision makers can use this to make decisions. A more efficient process is to directly integrate science and decision making, where science allows us to learn to better accomplish management objectives and is developed to address specific decisions. Co-development of management and science is especially productive when decisions are complicated by multiple objectives and impeded by uncertainty. Multiple objectives can be met by specification of tradeoffs, and relevant uncertainty can be addressed through targeted science (i.e., models and monitoring). We describe how to integrate habitat and fuels monitoring with decision making focused on dual objectives of managing for endangered species and minimizing catastrophic fire risk. Under certain conditions, both objectives might be achieved by a similar management policy, but habitat trajectories suggest tradeoffs. Knowledge about system responses to actions can be informed by applying competing management actions to different land units in the same system state and by ideas about fire behavior. Monitoring and management integration is important to optimize state-specific management decisions and increase knowledge about system responses. We believe this approach has broad utility for and cover modeling programs intended to inform decision making.

The impact of emotion on perception, attention, memory, and decision-making.

PubMed

Brosch, Tobias; Scherer, Klaus R; Grandjean, Didier; Sander, David

2013-05-14

Reason and emotion have long been considered opposing forces. However, recent psychological and neuroscientific research has revealed that emotion and cognition are closely intertwined. Cognitive processing is needed to elicit emotional responses. At the same time, emotional responses modulate and guide cognition to enable adaptive responses to the environment. Emotion determines how we perceive our world, organise our memory, and make important decisions. In this review, we provide an overview of current theorising and research in the Affective Sciences. We describe how psychological theories of emotion conceptualise the interactions of cognitive and emotional processes. We then review recent research investigating how emotion impacts our perception, attention, memory, and decision-making. Drawing on studies with both healthy participants and clinical populations, we illustrate the mechanisms and neural substrates underlying the interactions of cognition and emotion.

Shared decision making in Australia in 2017.

PubMed

Trevena, Lyndal; Shepherd, Heather L; Bonner, Carissa; Jansen, Jesse; Cust, Anne E; Leask, Julie; Shadbolt, Narelle; Del Mar, Chris; McCaffery, Kirsten; Hoffmann, Tammy

2017-06-01

Shared decision making (SDM) is now firmly established within national clinical standards for accrediting hospitals, day procedure services, public dental services and medical education in Australia, with plans to align general practice, aged care and disability service. Implementation of these standards and training of health professionals is a key challenge for the Australian health sector at this time. Consumer involvement in health research, policy and clinical service governance has also increased, with a major focus on encouraging patients to ask questions during their clinical care. Tools to support shared decision making are increasingly used but there is a need for more systemic approaches to their development, cultural adaptation and implementation. Sustainable solutions to ensure tools are kept up-to-date with the best available evidence will be important for the future. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Institutional Research in the USA: Adapting to Meet New Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swing, Randy L.

2009-01-01

The varied roles and scope of the field of institutional research (IR) make any overview of this administrative function difficult. In the USA, colleges and universities may have a large, well-defined administrative unit performing data tasks to support decision-making, or they may have only a part-time individual who coordinates basic reporting…

Mice learn to avoid regret.

PubMed

Sweis, Brian M; Thomas, Mark J; Redish, A David

2018-06-01

Regret can be defined as the subjective experience of recognizing that one has made a mistake and that a better alternative could have been selected. The experience of regret is thought to carry negative utility. This typically takes two distinct forms: augmenting immediate postregret valuations to make up for losses, and augmenting long-term changes in decision-making strategies to avoid future instances of regret altogether. While the short-term changes in valuation have been studied in human psychology, economics, neuroscience, and even recently in nonhuman-primate and rodent neurophysiology, the latter long-term process has received far less attention, with no reports of regret avoidance in nonhuman decision-making paradigms. We trained 31 mice in a novel variant of the Restaurant Row economic decision-making task, in which mice make decisions of whether to spend time from a limited budget to achieve food rewards of varying costs (delays). Importantly, we tested mice longitudinally for 70 consecutive days, during which the task provided their only source of food. Thus, decision strategies were interdependent across both trials and days. We separated principal commitment decisions from secondary reevaluation decisions across space and time and found evidence for regret-like behaviors following change-of-mind decisions that corrected prior economically disadvantageous choices. Immediately following change-of-mind events, subsequent decisions appeared to make up for lost effort by altering willingness to wait, decision speed, and pellet consumption speed, consistent with past reports of regret in rodents. As mice were exposed to an increasingly reward-scarce environment, we found they adapted and refined distinct economic decision-making strategies over the course of weeks to maximize reinforcement rate. However, we also found that even without changes in reinforcement rate, mice transitioned from an early strategy rooted in foraging to a strategy rooted in deliberation and planning that prevented future regret-inducing change-of-mind episodes from occurring. These data suggest that mice are learning to avoid future regret, independent of and separate from reinforcement rate maximization.

How to deal with climate change uncertainty in the planning of engineering systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spackova, Olga; Dittes, Beatrice; Straub, Daniel

2016-04-01

The effect of extreme events such as floods on the infrastructure and built environment is associated with significant uncertainties: These include the uncertain effect of climate change, uncertainty on extreme event frequency estimation due to limited historic data and imperfect models, and, not least, uncertainty on future socio-economic developments, which determine the damage potential. One option for dealing with these uncertainties is the use of adaptable (flexible) infrastructure that can easily be adjusted in the future without excessive costs. The challenge is in quantifying the value of adaptability and in finding the optimal sequence of decision. Is it worth to build a (potentially more expensive) adaptable system that can be adjusted in the future depending on the future conditions? Or is it more cost-effective to make a conservative design without counting with the possible future changes to the system? What is the optimal timing of the decision to build/adjust the system? We develop a quantitative decision-support framework for evaluation of alternative infrastructure designs under uncertainties, which: • probabilistically models the uncertain future (trough a Bayesian approach) • includes the adaptability of the systems (the costs of future changes) • takes into account the fact that future decisions will be made under uncertainty as well (using pre-posterior decision analysis) • allows to identify the optimal capacity and optimal timing to build/adjust the infrastructure. Application of the decision framework will be demonstrated on an example of flood mitigation planning in Bavaria.

Risk Tradeoffs in Adaptive Ecosystem Management: The Case of the U.S. Forest Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stern, Marc J.; Martin, Caysie A.; Predmore, S. Andrew; Morse, Wayde C.

2014-06-01

Natural resource planning processes on public lands in the United States are driven in large part by the requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which dictates general processes for analyzing and disclosing the likely impacts of proposed actions. The outcomes of these processes are the result of multiple factors, many related to the manifold smaller incremental decisions made by agency personnel directing the processes. Through interviews with decision makers, team leaders, and team members on five NEPA processes within the U.S. Forest Service, this study examines those incremental decisions. Risk, in particular external relationship risk, emerged as a dominant lens through which agency personnel weigh and make process-related decisions. We discuss the tradeoffs associated with agency actors' emphasis on this form of risk and their potential implications for adaptive ecosystem management and organizational performance.

Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise.

PubMed

Smithson, Michael; Ben-Haim, Yakov

2015-10-01

Many real-world planning and decision problems are far too uncertain, too variable, and too complicated to support realistic mathematical models. Nonetheless, we explain the usefulness, in these situations, of qualitative insights from mathematical decision theory. We demonstrate the integration of info-gap robustness in decision problems in which surprise and ignorance are predominant and where personal and collective psychological factors are critical. We present practical guidelines for employing adaptable-choice strategies as a proxy for robustness against uncertainty. These guidelines include being prepared for more surprises than we intuitively expect, retaining sufficiently many options to avoid premature closure and conflicts among preferences, and prioritizing outcomes that are steerable, whose consequences are observable, and that do not entail sunk costs, resource depletion, or high transition costs. We illustrate these concepts and guidelines with the example of the medical management of the 2003 SARS outbreak in Vietnam. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Role-play simulations for climate change adaptation education and engagement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rumore, Danya; Schenk, Todd; Susskind, Lawrence

2016-08-01

In order to effectively adapt to climate change, public officials and other stakeholders need to rapidly enhance their understanding of local risks and their ability to collaboratively and adaptively respond to them. We argue that science-based role-play simulation exercises -- a type of 'serious game' involving face-to-face mock decision-making -- have considerable potential as education and engagement tools for enhancing readiness to adapt. Prior research suggests role-play simulations and other serious games can foster public learning and encourage collective action in public policy-making contexts. However, the effectiveness of such exercises in the context of climate change adaptation education and engagement has heretofore been underexplored. We share results from two research projects that demonstrate the effectiveness of role-play simulations in cultivating climate change adaptation literacy, enhancing collaborative capacity and facilitating social learning. Based on our findings, we suggest such exercises should be more widely embraced as part of adaptation professionals' education and engagement toolkits.

Monitoring in the context of structured decision-making and adaptive management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lyons, J.E.; Runge, M.C.; Laskowski, H.P.; Kendall, W.L.

2008-01-01

In a natural resource management setting, monitoring is a crucial component of an informed process for making decisions, and monitoring design should be driven by the decision context and associated uncertainties. Monitoring itself can play >3 roles. First, it is important for state-dependent decision-making, as when managers need to know the system state before deciding on the appropriate course of action during the ensuing management cycle. Second, monitoring is critical for evaluating the effectiveness of management actions relative to objectives. Third, in an adaptive management setting, monitoring provides the feedback loop for learning about the system; learning is sought not for its own sake but primarily to better achieve management objectives. In this case, monitoring should be designed to reduce the critical uncertainties in models of the managed system. The United States Geological Survey and United States Fish and Wildlife Service are conducting a large-scale management experiment on 23 National Wildlife Refuges across the Northeast and Midwest Regions. The primary management objective is to provide habitat for migratory waterbirds, particularly during migration, using water-level manipulations in managed wetlands. Key uncertainties are related to the potential trade-offs created by management for a specific waterbird guild (e.g., migratory shorebirds) and the response of waterbirds, plant communities, and invertebrates to specific experimental hydroperiods. We reviewed the monitoring program associated with this study, and the ways that specific observations fill >1 of the roles identified above. We used observations from our monitoring to improve state-dependent decisions to control undesired plants, to evaluate management performance relative to shallow-water habitat objectives, and to evaluate potential trade-offs between waterfowl and shorebird habitat management. With limited staff and budgets, management agencies need efficient monitoring programs that are used for decision-making, not comprehensive studies that elucidate all manner of ecological relationships.

Recommendation System for Adaptive Learning.

PubMed

Chen, Yunxiao; Li, Xiaoou; Liu, Jingchen; Ying, Zhiliang

2018-01-01

An adaptive learning system aims at providing instruction tailored to the current status of a learner, differing from the traditional classroom experience. The latest advances in technology make adaptive learning possible, which has the potential to provide students with high-quality learning benefit at a low cost. A key component of an adaptive learning system is a recommendation system, which recommends the next material (video lectures, practices, and so on, on different skills) to the learner, based on the psychometric assessment results and possibly other individual characteristics. An important question then follows: How should recommendations be made? To answer this question, a mathematical framework is proposed that characterizes the recommendation process as a Markov decision problem, for which decisions are made based on the current knowledge of the learner and that of the learning materials. In particular, two plain vanilla systems are introduced, for which the optimal recommendation at each stage can be obtained analytically.

Lessons and challenges from adaptation pathways planning applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haasnoot, M.; Lawrence, J.; Kwakkel, J. H.; Walker, W.; Timmermans, J.; Bloemen, P.; Thissen, W.

2015-12-01

Planning for adaptation to dynamic risks (e.g., because of climate change) is a critical need. The concept of 'adaptive policies' is receiving increasing attention as a way of performing strategic planning that is able to address many of the inherent challenges of uncertainty and dynamic change. Several approaches for developing adaptive policies are available in the literature. One approach, for which several applications already exist, is Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP). Pathway maps enable policy analysts, decision makers, and stakeholders to recognize potential 'locked-in' situations and to assess the flexibility, robustness, and efficacy of decision alternatives. Most of the applications of DAPP have been in deltas, coastal cities, or floodplains, often within the context of climate change adaptation. In this talk, we describe the DAPP approach and present a framework for designing signposts as adaptation signals, together with an illustrative application for the Rhine River in the Netherlands. We also draw lessons and challenges from pathways applications that differ in environment, culture, and institutional context. For example, the Dutch Delta Programme has used pathways to identify short-term decisions and long-term policy options. In Bangladesh, an application is in its early phase. Steps before generating pathways - such as long- term thinking in multiple possible futures and acknowledging uncertainties - are already a big challenge there. In New Zealand, the 'Sustainable Delta Game' has been used as the catalyst for pathways thinking by two local councils. This has led to its application in decision making for coastal and flood risk management and economic analysis of policy options.

"Nuclear Deterrence" as an Adaptive Game Frame for Crisis Decision-Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sorenson, David S.

1981-01-01

Describes the simulation game "Nuclear Deterrence," which was developed to model an international relations crisis situation involving a bargaining framework potentially applicable to crisis modeling in other disciplines. Eight references are listed. (Author/LLS)

The influence of number line estimation precision and numeracy on risky financial decision making.

PubMed

Park, Inkyung; Cho, Soohyun

2018-01-10

This study examined whether different aspects of mathematical proficiency influence one's ability to make adaptive financial decisions. "Numeracy" refers to the ability to process numerical and probabilistic information and is commonly reported as an important factor which contributes to financial decision-making ability. The precision of mental number representation (MNR), measured with the number line estimation (NLE) task has been reported to be another critical factor. This study aimed to examine the contribution of these mathematical proficiencies while controlling for the influence of fluid intelligence, math anxiety and personality factors. In our decision-making task, participants chose between two options offering probabilistic monetary gain or loss. Sensitivity to expected value was measured as an index for the ability to discriminate between optimal versus suboptimal options. Partial correlation and hierarchical regression analyses revealed that NLE precision better explained EV sensitivity compared to numeracy, after controlling for all covariates. These results suggest that individuals with more precise MNR are capable of making more rational financial decisions. We also propose that the measurement of "numeracy," which is commonly used interchangeably with general mathematical proficiency, should include more diverse aspects of mathematical cognition including basic understanding of number magnitude. © 2018 International Union of Psychological Science.

The effects of working memory load and attention refocusing on delay discounting rates in alcohol use disorder with comorbid antisocial personality disorder.

PubMed

Gunn, Rachel L; Gerst, Kyle R; Lake, Allison J; Finn, Peter R

2018-02-01

Executive working memory capacity (eWMC) is central to adaptive decision-making. Research has revealed reduced eWMC and higher rates of impulsive decision making in individuals with alcohol use disorders (AUDs: DSM-IV Alcohol Dependence of Alcohol Abuse) and antisocial psychopathology (AP). Recent work has shown that placing a load on working memory (WM) further increases impulsive decision making on the delay discounting (DD) task in those with AUDs and AP. The current study examined the effects of an attention refocusing manipulation to offset the effects of this WM-load on DD rates in control subjects, those with AUDs without AP, and AUDs with AP (AUD-AP). Results revealed that 1) the AUD-AP group had higher DD rates (i.e., more impulsive decision-making) than the AUD group, followed by controls, and 2) attention refocusing after a load is placed on WM was associated with lower DD rates compared to the load without refocusing in both AUD groups, but not controls. Results suggest that refocusing attention after a cognitive load may be an effective cognitive strategy for reducing the impulsivity-enhancing effects of cognitive load on decision making in individuals with AUDs and AP. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty and Cognitive Control

PubMed Central

Mushtaq, Faisal; Bland, Amy R.; Schaefer, Alexandre

2011-01-01

A growing trend of neuroimaging, behavioral, and computational research has investigated the topic of outcome uncertainty in decision-making. Although evidence to date indicates that humans are very effective in learning to adapt to uncertain situations, the nature of the specific cognitive processes involved in the adaptation to uncertainty are still a matter of debate. In this article, we reviewed evidence suggesting that cognitive control processes are at the heart of uncertainty in decision-making contexts. Available evidence suggests that: (1) There is a strong conceptual overlap between the constructs of uncertainty and cognitive control; (2) There is a remarkable overlap between the neural networks associated with uncertainty and the brain networks subserving cognitive control; (3) The perception and estimation of uncertainty might play a key role in monitoring processes and the evaluation of the “need for control”; (4) Potential interactions between uncertainty and cognitive control might play a significant role in several affective disorders. PMID:22007181

Knowing When to Be "Rational": Flexible Economic Decision Making and Executive Function in Preschool Children.

PubMed

Lee, Wendy S C; Carlson, Stephanie M

2015-01-01

Failure to delay gratification may not indicate poor control or irrationality, but might be an adaptive response. Two studies investigated 3.5- and 4.5-year-old children's ability to adapt their delay and saving behavior when their preference (e.g., to delay or not delay) became nonadaptive. In Study 1 (N = 140), children's delay preference was associated with a risk of losing rewards. In Study 2 (N = 142), children's saving preference was associated with an inability to play an attractive game. Whereas baseline delaying and saving preferences were unrelated to a standardized executive function measure, children who switched to their nonpreferred choice scored higher, suggesting flexibility of decision-making may be a more meaningful dependent variable than baseline performance in developmental research on self-control. © 2015 The Authors. Child Development © 2015 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Guidelines for the Pharmacotherapy of Schizophrenia in Adults

PubMed Central

Addington, Donald; Honer, William; Ismail, Zahinoor; Raedler, Thomas; Teehan, Michael

2017-01-01

Objective: The present guidelines address the pharmacotherapy of schizophrenia in adults across different stages, phases, and symptom domains. Method: Guidelines were developed using the ADAPTE process, which takes advantage of existing guidelines. Six guidelines were identified for adaptation, with recommendations extracted from each. For those specific to the pharmacotherapy of schizophrenia in adults, a working group selected between guidelines and recommendations to create an adapted guideline. Results: Recommendations can be categorized into 6 areas that include 1) first-episode schizophrenia, 2) acute exacerbation, 3) relapse prevention and maintenance treatment, 4) treatment-resistant schizophrenia, 5) clozapine-resistant schizophrenia, and 6) specific symptom domains. For each category, recommendations are made based on the available evidence, which is discussed and linked to other established guidelines. Conclusions: In most cases, evidence-based recommendations are made that can be used to guide current clinical treatment and decision making. Notably, however, there is a paucity of established evidence to guide treatment decision making in the case of clozapine-resistant schizophrenia, a subsample that represents a sizable proportion of those with schizophrenia. PMID:28703015

Multistage Fuzzy Decision Making in Bilateral Negotiation with Finite Termination Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richter, Jan; Kowalczyk, Ryszard; Klusch, Matthias

In this paper we model the negotiation process as a multistage fuzzy decision problem where the agents preferences are represented by a fuzzy goal and fuzzy constraints. The opponent is represented by a fuzzy Markov decision process in the form of offer-response patterns which enables utilization of limited and uncertain information, e.g. the characteristics of the concession behaviour. We show that we can obtain adaptive negotiation strategies by only using the negotiation threads of two past cases to create and update the fuzzy transition matrix. The experimental evaluation demonstrates that our approach is adaptive towards different negotiation behaviours and that the fuzzy representation of the preferences and the transition matrix allows for application in many scenarios where the available information, preferences and constraints are soft or imprecise.

Flexible Multi agent Algorithm for Distributed Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

How, J. P. Consensus - Based Auction Approaches for Decentralized task Assignment. Proceedings of the AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control...G. ; Kim, Y. Market- based Decentralized Task Assignment for Cooperative UA V Mission Including Rendezvous. Proceedings of the AIAA Guidance...scalable and adaptable to a variety of specific mission tasks . Additionally, the algorithm could easily be adapted for use on land or sea- based systems

Simulation Experiments with Goal-Seeking Adaptive Elements.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-02-01

when it comes to cognition and particularly bad when it comes to remote sensing, goal seeking, adaptation and decision making, where brains excel. In...Erlbaum 1981, 161-187 Hinton, G. E., & Sejnowski, T. J. Analyzing Cooperative Computation. Proceedings of the Fifth Annual Conference of the Cognitive ...Algorithms and Applications. Springer-Verlag, 1981. Lenat, D. B., Hayes-Roth, F., Klahr, P. Cognitive economy. Stanford Heuristic Program- ming Project HPP

Knowing When to Be "Rational": Flexible Economic Decision Making and Executive Function in Preschool Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Wendy S. C.; Carlson, Stephanie M.

2015-01-01

Failure to delay gratification may not indicate poor control or irrationality, but might be an adaptive response. Two studies investigated 3.5- and 4.5-year-old children's ability to adapt their delay and saving behavior when their preference (e.g., to delay or not delay) became nonadaptive. In Study 1 (N = 140), children's delay preference was…

Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

2013-01-01

Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

Thresholds for conservation and management: structured decision making as a conceptual framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Martin, Julien; Edited by Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

2014-01-01

changes in system dynamics. They are frequently incorporated into ecological models used to project system responses to management actions. Utility thresholds are components of management objectives and are values of state or performance variables at which small changes yield substantial changes in the value of the management outcome. Decision thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes prompt changes in management actions in order to reach specified management objectives. Decision thresholds are derived from the other components of the decision process.We advocate a structured decision making (SDM) approach within which the following components are identified: objectives (possibly including utility thresholds), potential actions, models (possibly including ecological thresholds), monitoring program, and a solution algorithm (which produces decision thresholds). Adaptive resource management (ARM) is described as a special case of SDM developed for recurrent decision problems that are characterized by uncertainty. We believe that SDM, in general, and ARM, in particular, provide good approaches to conservation and management. Use of SDM and ARM also clarifies the distinct roles of ecological thresholds, utility thresholds, and decision thresholds in informed decision processes.

Impact of stakeholders influence, geographic level and risk perception on strategic decisions in simulated foot and mouth disease epizootics in France.

PubMed

Marsot, Maud; Rautureau, Séverine; Dufour, Barbara; Durand, Benoit

2014-01-01

Comparison of control strategies against animal infectious diseases allows determining optimal strategies according to their epidemiological and/or economic impacts. However, in real life, the choice of a control strategy does not always obey a pure economic or epidemiological rationality. The objective of this study was to analyze the choice of a foot and mouth disease (FMD) control strategy as a decision-making process in which the decision-maker is influenced by several stakeholders (government, agro-food industries, public opinion). For each of these, an indicator of epizootic impact was quantified to compare seven control strategies. We then determined how, in France, the optimal control strategy varied according to the relative weights of stakeholders and to the perception of risk by the decision-maker (risk-neutral/risk-averse). When the scope of decision was national, whatever their perception of risk and the stakeholders' weights, decision-makers chose a strategy based on vaccination. This consensus concealed marked differences between regions, which were connected with the regional breeding characteristics. Vaccination-based strategies were predominant in regions with dense cattle and swine populations, and in regions with a dense population of small ruminants, combined with a medium density of cattle and swine. These differences between regions suggested that control strategies could be usefully adapted to local breeding conditions. We then analyzed the feasibility of adaptive decision-making processes depending on the date and place where the epizootic starts, or on the evolution of the epizootic over time. The initial conditions always explained at least half of the variance of impacts, the remaining variance being attributed to the variability of epizootics evolution. However, the first weeks of this evolution explained a large part of the impacts variability. Although the predictive value of the initial conditions for determining the optimal strategy was weak, adaptive strategies changing dynamically according to the evolution of the epizootic appeared feasible.

A multi-layered governance framework for incorporating social science insights into adapting to the health impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Bowen, Kathryn J; Ebi, Kristie; Friel, Sharon; McMichael, Anthony J

2013-09-10

Addressing climate change and its associated effects is a multi-dimensional and ongoing challenge. This includes recognizing that climate change will affect the health and wellbeing of all populations over short and longer terms, albeit in varied ways and intensities. That recognition has drawn attention to the need to take adaptive actions to lessen adverse impacts over the next few decades from unavoidable climate change, particularly in developing country settings. A range of sectors is responsible for appropriate adaptive policies and measures to address the health risks of climate change, including health services, water and sanitation, trade, agriculture, disaster management, and development. To broaden the framing of governance and decision-making processes by using innovative methods and assessments to illustrate the multi-sectoral nature of health-related adaptation to climate change. This is a shift from sector-specific to multi-level systems encompassing sectors and actors, across temporal and spatial scales. A review and synthesis of the current knowledge in the areas of health and climate change adaptation governance and decision-making processes. A novel framework is presented that incorporates social science insights into the formulation and implementation of adaptation activities and policies to lessen the health risks posed by climate change. Clarification of the roles that different sectors, organizations, and individuals occupy in relation to the development of health-related adaptation strategies will facilitate the inclusion of health and wellbeing within multi-sector adaptation policies, thereby strengthening the overall set of responses to minimize the adverse health effects of climate change.

A multi-layered governance framework for incorporating social science insights into adapting to the health impacts of climate change

PubMed Central

Bowen, Kathryn J.; Ebi, Kristie; Friel, Sharon; McMichael, Anthony J.

2013-01-01

Background Addressing climate change and its associated effects is a multi-dimensional and ongoing challenge. This includes recognizing that climate change will affect the health and wellbeing of all populations over short and longer terms, albeit in varied ways and intensities. That recognition has drawn attention to the need to take adaptive actions to lessen adverse impacts over the next few decades from unavoidable climate change, particularly in developing country settings. A range of sectors is responsible for appropriate adaptive policies and measures to address the health risks of climate change, including health services, water and sanitation, trade, agriculture, disaster management, and development. Objectives To broaden the framing of governance and decision-making processes by using innovative methods and assessments to illustrate the multi-sectoral nature of health-related adaptation to climate change. This is a shift from sector-specific to multi-level systems encompassing sectors and actors, across temporal and spatial scales. Design A review and synthesis of the current knowledge in the areas of health and climate change adaptation governance and decision-making processes. Results A novel framework is presented that incorporates social science insights into the formulation and implementation of adaptation activities and policies to lessen the health risks posed by climate change. Conclusion Clarification of the roles that different sectors, organizations, and individuals occupy in relation to the development of health-related adaptation strategies will facilitate the inclusion of health and wellbeing within multi-sector adaptation policies, thereby strengthening the overall set of responses to minimize the adverse health effects of climate change. PMID:24028938

Fuzzy inference game approach to uncertainty in business decisions and market competitions.

PubMed

Oderanti, Festus Oluseyi

2013-01-01

The increasing challenges and complexity of business environments are making business decisions and operations more difficult for entrepreneurs to predict the outcomes of these processes. Therefore, we developed a decision support scheme that could be used and adapted to various business decision processes. These involve decisions that are made under uncertain situations such as business competition in the market or wage negotiation within a firm. The scheme uses game strategies and fuzzy inference concepts to effectively grasp the variables in these uncertain situations. The games are played between human and fuzzy players. The accuracy of the fuzzy rule base and the game strategies help to mitigate the adverse effects that a business may suffer from these uncertain factors. We also introduced learning which enables the fuzzy player to adapt over time. We tested this scheme in different scenarios and discover that it could be an invaluable tool in the hand of entrepreneurs that are operating under uncertain and competitive business environments.

Decision-Making Style and Response to Parental Involvement in Brief Interventions for Adolescent Substance Use

PubMed Central

Piehler, Timothy F.; Winters, Ken C.

2016-01-01

Adolescent decision making has been previously identified as risk factor for substance abuse as well as a proximal intervention target. The study sought to extend this research by evaluating the role of decision-making style in response to parent involvement in brief substance abuse interventions. Adolescents (aged 12–18 years; n= 259) identified in a school setting as abusing alcohol and marijuana were randomly assigned to complete one of two brief interventions (BIs): either a 2-session adolescent-only program (BI-A) or the 2-session adolescent program with an additional parent session (BI-AP). Interventions were manualized and delivered in a school setting by trained counselors. Adolescent decision-making style was evaluated at intake, and alcohol and marijuana use were evaluated at intake and at a 6-month follow-up assessment. Supporting past research with these interventions, BI-AP demonstrated overall stronger outcomes for marijuana when compared to BI-A. Across both intervention models, an adaptive decision-making style (i.e., constructive, rational) assessed at intake predicted greater reductions in marijuana use. A significant moderation effect emerged for alcohol outcomes. Adolescents with maladaptive decision making tendencies (i.e., impulsive/careless, avoidant) demonstrated the largest benefit from the parental involvement in BI-AP, whereas those with a less impulsive style derived little additional benefit from parental involvement in regard to alcohol use outcomes. Implications for the tailoring of brief interventions for adolescent substance abuse are discussed. PMID:27929312

Decision-making style and response to parental involvement in brief interventions for adolescent substance use.

PubMed

Piehler, Timothy F; Winters, Ken C

2017-04-01

Adolescent decision making has been previously identified as risk factor for substance abuse as well as a proximal intervention target. The study sought to extend this research by evaluating the role of decision-making style in response to parent involvement in brief substance abuse interventions. Adolescents (aged 12 to 18 years; n = 259) identified in a school setting as abusing alcohol and marijuana were randomly assigned to complete 1 of 2 brief interventions (BIs), either a 2-session adolescent-only program (BI-A) or the 2-session adolescent program with an additional parent session (BI-AP). Interventions were manualized and delivered in a school setting by trained counselors. Adolescent decision-making style was evaluated at intake, and alcohol and marijuana use were evaluated at intake and at a 6-month follow-up assessment. Supporting past research with these interventions, BI-AP demonstrated overall stronger outcomes for marijuana when compared with BI-A. Across both intervention models, an adaptive decision-making style (i.e., constructive, rational) assessed at intake predicted greater reductions in marijuana use. A significant moderation effect emerged for alcohol outcomes. Adolescents with maladaptive decision-making tendencies (i.e., impulsive/careless, avoidant) demonstrated the largest benefit from the parental involvement in BI-AP, whereas those with a less impulsive style derived little additional benefit from parental involvement in regard to alcohol use outcomes. Implications for the tailoring of brief interventions for adolescent substance abuse are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

An Integrated Systems Approach to Designing Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Water Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, D.; Malano, H. M.; Davidson, B.; George, B.

2014-12-01

Climate change projections are characterised by large uncertainties with rainfall variability being the key challenge in designing adaptation policies. Climate change adaptation in water resources shows all the typical characteristics of 'wicked' problems typified by cognitive uncertainty as new scientific knowledge becomes available, problem instability, knowledge imperfection and strategic uncertainty due to institutional changes that inevitably occur over time. Planning that is characterised by uncertainties and instability requires an approach that can accommodate flexibility and adaptive capacity for decision-making. An ability to take corrective measures in the event that scenarios and responses envisaged initially derive into forms at some future stage. We present an integrated-multidisciplinary and comprehensive framework designed to interface and inform science and decision making in the formulation of water resource management strategies to deal with climate change in the Musi Catchment of Andhra Pradesh, India. At the core of this framework is a dialogue between stakeholders, decision makers and scientists to define a set of plausible responses to an ensemble of climate change scenarios derived from global climate modelling. The modelling framework used to evaluate the resulting combination of climate scenarios and adaptation responses includes the surface and groundwater assessment models (SWAT & MODFLOW) and the water allocation modelling (REALM) to determine the water security of each adaptation strategy. Three climate scenarios extracted from downscaled climate models were selected for evaluation together with four agreed responses—changing cropping patterns, increasing watershed development, changing the volume of groundwater extraction and improving irrigation efficiency. Water security in this context is represented by the combination of level of water availability and its associated security of supply for three economic activities (agriculture, urban, industrial) on a spatially distributed basis. The resulting combinations of climate scenarios and adaptation responses were subjected to a combined hydro-economic assessment based on the degree of water security together with its cost-effectiveness against the Business-as-usual scenario.

Assessing the usability and potential value of seasonal climate forecasts in land management decisions in the southwest UK: challenges and reflections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soares, Marta Bruno

2017-06-01

The potential usability and benefits of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) to help inform decision-making processes is widely accepted. However, the practical use of SCF in Europe is still fairly recent and, as such, current knowledge of the added benefits of SCF in supporting and improving decision-making is limited. This study is based on research conducted to co-develop a semi-operational climate service prototype - the Land Management Tool (LMTool) - with farmers in South West regions of the UK. The value of the SCF provided to the farmers was examined to help us understand the usability and (potential) value of these forecasts in farmers' decisions during the winter months of 2015/2016. The findings from the study point to the need to explore and develop (new) research methods capable of addressing the complexity of the decision-making processes, such as those in the farming sector. The farmers who used the SCF perceived it as useful and usable as it helped them change and adapt their decision-making and thus, avoid unnecessary costs. However, to fully grasp the potential value of using SCF, farmers emphasised the need for the provision of SCF for longer periods of time to allow them to build trust and confidence in the information provided. This paper contributes to ongoing discussions about how to assess the use and value of SCF in decision-making processes in a meaningful and effective way.

Orbital frontal cortex updates state-induced value change for decision-making.

PubMed

Baltz, Emily T; Yalcinbas, Ege A; Renteria, Rafael; Gremel, Christina M

2018-06-13

Recent hypotheses have posited that orbital frontal cortex (OFC) is important for using inferred consequences to guide behavior. Less clear is OFC's contribution to goal-directed or model-based behavior, where the decision to act is controlled by previous experience with the consequence or outcome. Investigating OFC's role in learning about changed outcomes separate from decision-making is not trivial and often the two are confounded. Here we adapted an incentive learning task to mice, where we investigated processes controlling experience-based outcome updating independent from inferred action control. We found chemogenetic OFC attenuation did not alter the ability to perceive motivational state-induced changes in outcome value but did prevent the experience-based updating of this change. Optogenetic inhibition of OFC excitatory neuron activity selectively when experiencing an outcome change disrupted the ability to update, leaving mice unable to infer the appropriate behavior. Our findings support a role for OFC in learning that controls decision-making. © 2018, Baltz et al.

Reinforcement learning and decision making in monkeys during a competitive game.

PubMed

Lee, Daeyeol; Conroy, Michelle L; McGreevy, Benjamin P; Barraclough, Dominic J

2004-12-01

Animals living in a dynamic environment must adjust their decision-making strategies through experience. To gain insights into the neural basis of such adaptive decision-making processes, we trained monkeys to play a competitive game against a computer in an oculomotor free-choice task. The animal selected one of two visual targets in each trial and was rewarded only when it selected the same target as the computer opponent. To determine how the animal's decision-making strategy can be affected by the opponent's strategy, the computer opponent was programmed with three different algorithms that exploited different aspects of the animal's choice and reward history. When the computer selected its targets randomly with equal probabilities, animals selected one of the targets more often, violating the prediction of probability matching, and their choices were systematically influenced by the choice history of the two players. When the computer exploited only the animal's choice history but not its reward history, animal's choice became more independent of its own choice history but was still related to the choice history of the opponent. This bias was substantially reduced, but not completely eliminated, when the computer used the choice history of both players in making its predictions. These biases were consistent with the predictions of reinforcement learning, suggesting that the animals sought optimal decision-making strategies using reinforcement learning algorithms.

Précis of Simple heuristics that make us smart.

PubMed

Todd, P M; Gigerenzer, G

2000-10-01

How can anyone be rational in a world where knowledge is limited, time is pressing, and deep thought is often an unattainable luxury? Traditional models of unbounded rationality and optimization in cognitive science, economics, and animal behavior have tended to view decision-makers as possessing supernatural powers of reason, limitless knowledge, and endless time. But understanding decisions in the real world requires a more psychologically plausible notion of bounded rationality. In Simple heuristics that make us smart (Gigerenzer et al. 1999), we explore fast and frugal heuristics--simple rules in the mind's adaptive toolbox for making decisions with realistic mental resources. These heuristics can enable both living organisms and artificial systems to make smart choices quickly and with a minimum of information by exploiting the way that information is structured in particular environments. In this précis, we show how simple building blocks that control information search, stop search, and make decisions can be put together to form classes of heuristics, including: ignorance-based and one-reason decision making for choice, elimination models for categorization, and satisficing heuristics for sequential search. These simple heuristics perform comparably to more complex algorithms, particularly when generalizing to new data--that is, simplicity leads to robustness. We present evidence regarding when people use simple heuristics and describe the challenges to be addressed by this research program.

Risky decision-making in children with and without ADHD: A prospective study.

PubMed

Humphreys, Kathryn L; Tottenham, Nim; Lee, Steve S

2018-02-01

Learning from past decisions can enhance successful decision-making. It is unclear whether difficulties in learning from experience may contribute to risky decision-making, which may be altered among individuals with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). This study follows 192 children with and without ADHD aged 5 to 10 years for approximately 2.5 years and examines their risky decision-making using the Balloon Emotional Learning Task (BELT), a computerized assessment of sequential risky decision-making in which participants pump up a series of virtual balloons for points. The BELT contains three task conditions: one with a variable explosion point, one with a stable and early explosion point, and one with a stable and late explosion point. These conditions may be learned via experience on the task. Contrary to expectations, ADHD status was not found to be related to greater risk-taking on the BELT, and among younger children ADHD status is in fact associated with reduced risk-taking. In addition, the typically-developing children without ADHD showed significant learning-related gains on both stable task conditions. However, the children with ADHD demonstrated learning on the condition with a stable and early explosion point, but not on the condition with the stable and late explosion point, in which more pumps are required before learning when the balloon will explode. Learning during decision-making may be more difficult for children with ADHD. Because adapting to changing environmental demands requires the use of feedback to guide future behavior, negative outcomes associated with childhood ADHD may partially reflect difficulties in learning from experience.

Evolutionary Perspective on Collective Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrell, Dene; Sayama, Hiroki; Dionne, Shelley D.; Yammarino, Francis J.; Wilson, David Sloan

Team decision making dynamics are investigated from a novel perspective by shifting agency from decision makers to representations of potential solutions. We provide a new way to navigate social dynamics of collective decision making by interpreting decision makers as constituents of an evolutionary environment of an ecology of evolving solutions. We demonstrate distinct patterns of evolution with respect to three forms of variation: (1) Results with random variations in utility functions of individuals indicate that groups demonstrating minimal internal variation produce higher true utility values of group solutions and display better convergence; (2) analysis of variations in behavioral patterns within a group shows that a proper balance between selective and creative evolutionary forces is crucial to producing adaptive solutions; and (3) biased variations of the utility functions diminish the range of variation for potential solution utility, leaving only the differential of convergence performance static. We generally find that group cohesion (low random variation within a group) and composition (appropriate variation of behavioral patterns within a group) are necessary for a successful navigation of the solution space, but performance in both cases is susceptible to group level biases.

The Pathways fertility preservation decision aid website for women with cancer: development and field testing.

PubMed

Woodard, Terri L; Hoffman, Aubri S; Covarrubias, Laura A; Holman, Deborah; Schover, Leslie; Bradford, Andrea; Hoffman, Derek B; Mathur, Aakrati; Thomas, Jerah; Volk, Robert J

2018-02-01

To improve survivors' awareness and knowledge of fertility preservation counseling and treatment options, this study engaged survivors and providers to design, develop, and field-test Pathways: a fertility preservation patient decision aid website for young women with cancer©. Using an adapted user-centered design process, our stakeholder advisory group and research team designed and optimized the Pathways patient decision aid website through four iterative cycles of review and revision with clinicians (n = 21) and survivors (n = 14). Field-testing (n = 20 survivors) assessed post-decision aid scores on the Fertility Preservation Knowledge Scale, feasibility of assessing women's decision-making values while using the website, and website usability/acceptability ratings. Iterative stakeholder engagement optimized the Pathways decision aid website to meet survivors' and providers' needs, including providing patient-friendly information and novel features such as interactive value clarification exercises, testimonials that model shared decision making, financial/referral resources, and a printable personal summary. Survivors scored an average of 8.2 out of 13 (SD 1.6) on the Fertility Preservation Knowledge Scale. They rated genetic screening and having a biological child as strong factors in their decision-making, and 71% indicated a preference for egg freezing. Most women (> 85%) rated Pathways favorably, and all women (100%) said they would recommend it to other women. The Pathways decision aid is a usable and acceptable tool to help women learn about fertility preservation. The Pathways decision aid may help women make well-informed values-based decisions and prevent future infertility-related distress.

Farmer responses to multiple stresses in the face of global change: Assessing five case studies to enhance adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholas, K. A.; Feola, G.; Lerner, A. M.; Jain, M.; Montefrio, M.

2013-12-01

The global challenge of sustaining agricultural livelihoods and yields in the face of growing populations and increasing climate change is the topic of intense research. The role of on-the-ground decision-making by individual farmers actually producing food, fuel, and fiber is often studied in individual cases to determine its environmental, economic, and social effects. However, there are few efforts to link across studies in a way that provides opportunities to better understand empirical farmer behavior, design effective policies, and be able to aggregate from case studies to a broader scale. Here we synthesize existing literature to identify four general factors affecting farmer decision-making: local technical and socio-cultural contexts; actors and institutions involved in decision-making; multiple stressors at broader scales; and the temporal gradient of decision-making. We use these factors to compare five cases that illustrate agricultural decision-making and its impacts: cotton and castor farming in Gujarat, India; swidden cultivation of upland rice in the Philippines; potato cultivation in Andean Colombia; winegrowing in Northern California; and maize production in peri-urban central Mexico. These cases span a geographic and economic range of production systems, but we find that we are able to make valid comparisons and draw lessons common across all cases by using the four factors as an organizing principle. We also find that our understanding of why farmers make the decisions they do changes if we neglect to examine even one of the four general factors guiding decision-making. This suggests that these four factors are important to understanding farmer decision-making, and can be used to guide the design and interpretation of future studies, as well as be the subject of further research in and of themselves to promote an agricultural system that is resilient to climate and other global environmental changes.

Hedonic quality or reward? A study of basic pleasure in homeostasis and decision making of a motivated autonomous robot.

PubMed

Lewis, Matthew; Cañamero, Lola

2016-10-01

We present a robot architecture and experiments to investigate some of the roles that pleasure plays in the decision making (action selection) process of an autonomous robot that must survive in its environment. We have conducted three sets of experiments to assess the effect of different types of pleasure-related versus unrelated to the satisfaction of physiological needs-under different environmental circumstances. Our results indicate that pleasure, including pleasure unrelated to need satisfaction, has value for homeostatic management in terms of improved viability and increased flexibility in adaptive behavior.

High-Resolution Climate Data Visualization through GIS- and Web-based Data Portals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WANG, X.; Huang, G.

2017-12-01

Sound decisions on climate change adaptation rely on an in-depth assessment of potential climate change impacts at regional and local scales, which usually requires finer resolution climate projections at both spatial and temporal scales. However, effective downscaling of global climate projections is practically difficult due to the lack of computational resources and/or long-term reference data. Although a large volume of downscaled climate data has been make available to the public, how to understand and interpret the large-volume climate data and how to make use of the data to drive impact assessment and adaptation studies are still challenging for both impact researchers and decision makers. Such difficulties have become major barriers preventing informed climate change adaptation planning at regional scales. Therefore, this research will explore new GIS- and web-based technologies to help visualize the large-volume regional climate data with high spatiotemporal resolutions. A user-friendly public data portal, named Climate Change Data Portal (CCDP, http://ccdp.network), will be established to allow intuitive and open access to high-resolution regional climate projections at local scales. The CCDP offers functions of visual representation through geospatial maps and data downloading for a variety of climate variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind) at multiple spatial resolutions (i.e., 25 - 50 km) and temporal resolutions (i.e., annual, seasonal, monthly, daily, and hourly). The vast amount of information the CCDP encompasses can provide a crucial basis for assessing impacts of climate change on local communities and ecosystems and for supporting better decision making under a changing climate.

Catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) genotype affects cognitive control during total sleep deprivation.

PubMed

Satterfield, Brieann C; Hinson, John M; Whitney, Paul; Schmidt, Michelle A; Wisor, Jonathan P; Van Dongen, Hans P A

2018-02-01

Adaptive decision making is profoundly impaired by total sleep deprivation (TSD). This suggests that TSD impacts fronto-striatal pathways involved in cognitive control, where dopamine is a key neuromodulator. In the prefrontal cortex (PFC), dopamine is catabolized by the enzyme catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT). A functional polymorphism (Val158Met) influences COMT's enzymatic activity, resulting in markedly different levels of prefrontal dopamine. We investigated the effect of this polymorphism on adaptive decision making during TSD. Sixty-six healthy young adults participated in one of two in-laboratory studies. After a baseline day, subjects were randomized to either a TSD group (n = 32) with 38 h or 62 h of extended wakefulness or a well-rested control group (n = 34) with 10 h nighttime sleep opportunities. Subjects performed a go/no-go reversal learning (GNGr) task at well-rested baseline and again during TSD or equivalent control. During the task, subjects were required to learn stimulus-response relationships from accuracy feedback. The stimulus-response relationships were reversed halfway through the task, which required subjects to learn the new stimulus-response relationships from accuracy feedback. Performance on the GNGr task was quantified by discriminability (d') between go and no-go stimuli before and after the stimulus-response reversal. GNGr performance did not differ between COMT genotypes when subjects were well-rested. However, TSD exposed a significant vulnerability to adaptive decision making impairment in subjects with the Val allele. Our results indicate that sleep deprivation degrades cognitive control through a fronto-striatal, dopaminergic mechanism. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stakeholder Participation in Freshwater Monitoring and Evaluation Programs: Applying Thresholds of Potential Concern within Environmental Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conallin, John; McLoughlin, Craig A.; Campbell, Josh; Knight, Roger; Bright, Troy; Fisher, Ian

2018-03-01

The complex nature of freshwater systems provides challenges for incorporating evidence-based techniques into management. This paper investigates the potential of participatory evidence-based techniques to involve local stakeholders and make decisions based on different "knowledge" sources within adaptive management programs. It focuses on the application of thresholds of potential concern (TPC) within strategic adaptive management (SAM) for facilitating inclusive decision-making. The study is based on the case of the Edward-Wakool (E-W) "Fish and Flows" SAM project in the Murray-Darling River Basin, Australia. We demonstrate the application of TPCs for improving collaborative decision-making within the E-W, associated with environmental watering requirements, and other natural resource management programs such as fish stocking. The development of TPCs in the E-W fish and flows SAM project helped improve stakeholder involvement and understanding of the system, and also the effectiveness of the implemented management interventions. TPCs ultimately helped inform environmental flow management activities. The TPC process complemented monitoring that was already occurring in the system and provided a mechanism for linking formal and informal knowledge to form explicit and measurable endpoints from objectives. The TPC process faced challenges due to the perceived reduction in scientific rigor within initial TPC development and use. However, TPCs must remain tangible to managers and other stakeholders, in order to aid in the implementation of adaptive management. Once accepted by stakeholders, over time TPCs should be reviewed and refined in order to increase their scientific rigor, as new information is generated.

Development of a real-time clinical decision support system upon the web mvc-based architecture for prostate cancer treatment

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background A real-time clinical decision support system (RTCDSS) with interactive diagrams enables clinicians to instantly and efficiently track patients' clinical records (PCRs) and improve their quality of clinical care. We propose a RTCDSS to process online clinical informatics from multiple databases for clinical decision making in the treatment of prostate cancer based on Web Model-View-Controller (MVC) architecture, by which the system can easily be adapted to different diseases and applications. Methods We designed a framework upon the Web MVC-based architecture in which the reusable and extractable models can be conveniently adapted to other hospital information systems and which allows for efficient database integration. Then, we determined the clinical variables of the prostate cancer treatment based on participating clinicians' opinions and developed a computational model to determine the pretreatment parameters. Furthermore, the components of the RTCDSS integrated PCRs and decision factors for real-time analysis to provide evidence-based diagrams upon the clinician-oriented interface for visualization of treatment guidance and health risk assessment. Results The resulting system can improve quality of clinical treatment by allowing clinicians to concurrently analyze and evaluate the clinical markers of prostate cancer patients with instantaneous clinical data and evidence-based diagrams which can automatically identify pretreatment parameters. Moreover, the proposed RTCDSS can aid interactions between patients and clinicians. Conclusions Our proposed framework supports online clinical informatics, evaluates treatment risks, offers interactive guidance, and provides real-time reference for decision making in the treatment of prostate cancer. The developed clinician-oriented interface can assist clinicians in conveniently presenting evidence-based information to patients and can be readily adapted to an existing hospital information system and be easily applied in other chronic diseases. PMID:21385459

Development of a real-time clinical decision support system upon the Web MVC-based architecture for prostate cancer treatment.

PubMed

Lin, Hsueh-Chun; Wu, Hsi-Chin; Chang, Chih-Hung; Li, Tsai-Chung; Liang, Wen-Miin; Wang, Jong-Yi Wang

2011-03-08

A real-time clinical decision support system (RTCDSS) with interactive diagrams enables clinicians to instantly and efficiently track patients' clinical records (PCRs) and improve their quality of clinical care. We propose a RTCDSS to process online clinical informatics from multiple databases for clinical decision making in the treatment of prostate cancer based on Web Model-View-Controller (MVC) architecture, by which the system can easily be adapted to different diseases and applications. We designed a framework upon the Web MVC-based architecture in which the reusable and extractable models can be conveniently adapted to other hospital information systems and which allows for efficient database integration. Then, we determined the clinical variables of the prostate cancer treatment based on participating clinicians' opinions and developed a computational model to determine the pretreatment parameters. Furthermore, the components of the RTCDSS integrated PCRs and decision factors for real-time analysis to provide evidence-based diagrams upon the clinician-oriented interface for visualization of treatment guidance and health risk assessment. The resulting system can improve quality of clinical treatment by allowing clinicians to concurrently analyze and evaluate the clinical markers of prostate cancer patients with instantaneous clinical data and evidence-based diagrams which can automatically identify pretreatment parameters. Moreover, the proposed RTCDSS can aid interactions between patients and clinicians. Our proposed framework supports online clinical informatics, evaluates treatment risks, offers interactive guidance, and provides real-time reference for decision making in the treatment of prostate cancer. The developed clinician-oriented interface can assist clinicians in conveniently presenting evidence-based information to patients and can be readily adapted to an existing hospital information system and be easily applied in other chronic diseases.

Implementing CER: what will it take?

PubMed

Biskupiak, Joseph E; Dunn, Jeffrey D; Holtorf, Anke-Peggy

2012-06-01

Comparative effectiveness research (CER) is undeniably changing how drugs are developed, launched, priced, and reimbursed in the United States. But most organizations are still evaluating what CER can do for them and how and when they can utilize the data. A roundtable of stakeholders, including formulary decision makers, evaluated CER's possible effects on managed care organizations (MCOs) and what it may take to fully integrate CER into decision making. To examine the role of CER in current formulary decision making, compare CER to modeling, discuss ways CER may be used in the future, and describe CER funding sources. While decision makers from different types of organizations, such as pharmacy benefit management (PBM) companies and MCOs, may have varying definitions and expectations of CER, most thought leaders from a roundtable of stakeholders, including formulary decision makers, see value in CER's ability to enhance their formulary decision making. Formulary decision makers may be able to use CER to better inform their coverage decisions in areas such as benefit design, contracting, conditional reimbursement, pay for performance, and other alternative pricing arrangements. Real-world CER will require improvement in the health information technology infrastructure to better capture value-related information. The federal government is viewed as a key driver and funding source behind CER, especially for infrastructure and methods development, while industry will adapt the clinical development and create increasing CER evidence. CER then needs to be applied to determining value (or cost efficacy). It is expected that CER will continue to grow as a valuable component of formulary decision making. Future integration of CER into formulary decision making will require federal government and academic leadership, improvements in the health information technology infrastructure, ongoing funding, and improved and more consistent methodologies.

Knowledge exchange for climate adaptation planning in western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garfin, Gregg; Orr, Barron

2015-04-01

In western North America, the combination of sustained drought, rapid ecosystem changes, and land use changes associated with urban population growth has motivated concern among ecosystem managers about the implications of future climate changes for the landscapes which they manage. Through literature review, surveys, and workshop discussions, we assess the process of moving from concern, to planning, to action, with an emphasis on questions, such as: What are the roles of boundary organizations in facilitating knowledge exchange? Which practices lead to effective interactions between scientists, decision-makers, and knowledge brokers? While there is no "one size fits all" science communication method, the co-production of science and policy by research scientists, science translators, and decision-makers, as co-equals, is a resource intensive, but effective practice for moving adaptation planning forward. Constructive approaches make use of alliances with early adopters and opinion leaders, and make strong communication links between predictions, impacts and solutions. Resource managers need information on the basics of regional climate variability and global climate change, region-specific projections of climate changes and impacts, frank discussion of uncertainties, and opportunities for candid exploration of these topics with peers and subject experts. Research scientists play critical roles in adaptation planning discussions, because they assist resource managers in clarifying the cascade of interactions leading to potential impacts and, importantly, because decision-makers want to hear the information straight from the scientists conducting the research, which bolsters credibility. We find that uncertainty, formerly a topic to avoided, forms the foundation for constructive progress in adaptation planning. Candid exploration of the array of uncertainties, including those due to modeling, institutional, policy and economic factors, with practitioners, science translators, and subject experts, stimulates constructive thinking on adaptation strategies. Discussion support to explore multiple future scenarios and research nuances advances the discussion beyond "uncertainty paralysis."

Dynamic adjustments of cognitive control during economic decision making.

PubMed

Soutschek, Alexander; Schubert, Torsten

2014-10-01

Decision making in the Ultimatum game requires the resolution of conflicts between economic self-interest and fairness intuitions. Since cognitive control processes play an important role in conflict resolution, the present study examined how control processes that are triggered by conflicts between fairness and self-interest in unfair offers affect subsequent decisions in the Ultimatum game. Our results revealed that more unfair offers were accepted following previously unfair, compared to previously fair offers. Interestingly, the magnitude of this conflict adaptation effect correlated with the individual subjects' focus on economic self-interest. We concluded that conflicts between fairness and self-interest trigger cognitive control processes, which reinforce the focus on the current task goal. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Clinical bioethics for primary health care].

PubMed

González-de Paz, L

2013-01-01

The clinical decision making process with ethical implications in the area of primary healthcare differs from other healthcare areas. From the ethical perspective it is important to include these issues in the decision making model. This dissertation explains the need for a process of bioethical deliberation for Primary Healthcare, as well as proposing a method for doing so. The decision process method, adapted to this healthcare area, is flexible and requires a more participative Healthcare System. This proposal involves professionals and the patient population equally, is intended to facilitate the acquisition of responsibility for personal and community health. Copyright © 2012 Sociedad Española de Médicos de Atención Primaria (SEMERGEN). Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

The effect of introspection on judgment and decision making is dependent on the quality of conscious thinking.

PubMed

Leisti, Tuomas; Häkkinen, Jukka

2016-05-01

That introspection may impair certain judgments and result in fabrication has been attributed to a distracting shift from more adaptive intuitive processing to more analytic and conscious processing. This phenomenon was studied in an experiment where participants made multidimensional visual choices. It was found that the effect of this shift on decision-making performance was dependent on the quality of the explanations during introspection, while the performance in silent conditions was not. Therefore, it appears that the effect of introspection on judgments is not only influenced by the thinking mode per se, but also by the individual's ability to approach the decision problem analytically. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decision making and problem solving with computer assistance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kraiss, F.

1980-01-01

In modern guidance and control systems, the human as manager, supervisor, decision maker, problem solver and trouble shooter, often has to cope with a marginal mental workload. To improve this situation, computers should be used to reduce the operator from mental stress. This should not solely be done by increased automation, but by a reasonable sharing of tasks in a human-computer team, where the computer supports the human intelligence. Recent developments in this area are summarized. It is shown that interactive support of operator by intelligent computer is feasible during information evaluation, decision making and problem solving. The applied artificial intelligence algorithms comprehend pattern recognition and classification, adaptation and machine learning as well as dynamic and heuristic programming. Elementary examples are presented to explain basic principles.

Benchmarking--Measuring and Comparing for Continuous Improvement.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henczel, Sue

2002-01-01

Discussion of benchmarking focuses on the use of internal and external benchmarking by special librarians. Highlights include defining types of benchmarking; historical development; benefits, including efficiency, improved performance, increased competitiveness, and better decision making; problems, including inappropriate adaptation; developing a…

No Effect of Commercial Cognitive Training on Brain Activity, Choice Behavior, or Cognitive Performance.

PubMed

Kable, Joseph W; Caulfield, M Kathleen; Falcone, Mary; McConnell, Mairead; Bernardo, Leah; Parthasarathi, Trishala; Cooper, Nicole; Ashare, Rebecca; Audrain-McGovern, Janet; Hornik, Robert; Diefenbach, Paul; Lee, Frank J; Lerman, Caryn

2017-08-02

Increased preference for immediate over delayed rewards and for risky over certain rewards has been associated with unhealthy behavioral choices. Motivated by evidence that enhanced cognitive control can shift choice behavior away from immediate and risky rewards, we tested whether training executive cognitive function could influence choice behavior and brain responses. In this randomized controlled trial, 128 young adults (71 male, 57 female) participated in 10 weeks of training with either a commercial web-based cognitive training program or web-based video games that do not specifically target executive function or adapt the level of difficulty throughout training. Pretraining and post-training, participants completed cognitive assessments and functional magnetic resonance imaging during performance of the following validated decision-making tasks: delay discounting (choices between smaller rewards now vs larger rewards in the future) and risk sensitivity (choices between larger riskier rewards vs smaller certain rewards). Contrary to our hypothesis, we found no evidence that cognitive training influences neural activity during decision-making; nor did we find effects of cognitive training on measures of delay discounting or risk sensitivity. Participants in the commercial training condition improved with practice on the specific tasks they performed during training, but participants in both conditions showed similar improvement on standardized cognitive measures over time. Moreover, the degree of improvement was comparable to that observed in individuals who were reassessed without any training whatsoever. Commercial adaptive cognitive training appears to have no benefits in healthy young adults above those of standard video games for measures of brain activity, choice behavior, or cognitive performance. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Engagement of neural regions and circuits important in executive cognitive function can bias behavioral choices away from immediate rewards. Activity in these regions may be enhanced through adaptive cognitive training. Commercial brain training programs claim to improve a broad range of mental processes; however, evidence for transfer beyond trained tasks is mixed. We undertook the first randomized controlled trial of the effects of commercial adaptive cognitive training (Lumosity) on neural activity and decision-making in young adults ( N = 128) compared with an active control (playing on-line video games). We found no evidence for relative benefits of cognitive training with respect to changes in decision-making behavior or brain response, or for cognitive task performance beyond those specifically trained. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/377390-13$15.00/0.

No Effect of Commercial Cognitive Training on Brain Activity, Choice Behavior, or Cognitive Performance

PubMed Central

Caulfield, M. Kathleen; McConnell, Mairead; Bernardo, Leah; Parthasarathi, Trishala; Cooper, Nicole; Ashare, Rebecca; Audrain-McGovern, Janet; Lee, Frank J.; Lerman, Caryn

2017-01-01

Increased preference for immediate over delayed rewards and for risky over certain rewards has been associated with unhealthy behavioral choices. Motivated by evidence that enhanced cognitive control can shift choice behavior away from immediate and risky rewards, we tested whether training executive cognitive function could influence choice behavior and brain responses. In this randomized controlled trial, 128 young adults (71 male, 57 female) participated in 10 weeks of training with either a commercial web-based cognitive training program or web-based video games that do not specifically target executive function or adapt the level of difficulty throughout training. Pretraining and post-training, participants completed cognitive assessments and functional magnetic resonance imaging during performance of the following validated decision-making tasks: delay discounting (choices between smaller rewards now vs larger rewards in the future) and risk sensitivity (choices between larger riskier rewards vs smaller certain rewards). Contrary to our hypothesis, we found no evidence that cognitive training influences neural activity during decision-making; nor did we find effects of cognitive training on measures of delay discounting or risk sensitivity. Participants in the commercial training condition improved with practice on the specific tasks they performed during training, but participants in both conditions showed similar improvement on standardized cognitive measures over time. Moreover, the degree of improvement was comparable to that observed in individuals who were reassessed without any training whatsoever. Commercial adaptive cognitive training appears to have no benefits in healthy young adults above those of standard video games for measures of brain activity, choice behavior, or cognitive performance. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Engagement of neural regions and circuits important in executive cognitive function can bias behavioral choices away from immediate rewards. Activity in these regions may be enhanced through adaptive cognitive training. Commercial brain training programs claim to improve a broad range of mental processes; however, evidence for transfer beyond trained tasks is mixed. We undertook the first randomized controlled trial of the effects of commercial adaptive cognitive training (Lumosity) on neural activity and decision-making in young adults (N = 128) compared with an active control (playing on-line video games). We found no evidence for relative benefits of cognitive training with respect to changes in decision-making behavior or brain response, or for cognitive task performance beyond those specifically trained. PMID:28694338

Information theory of adaptation in neurons, behavior, and mood.

PubMed

Sharpee, Tatyana O; Calhoun, Adam J; Chalasani, Sreekanth H

2014-04-01

The ability to make accurate predictions of future stimuli and consequences of one's actions are crucial for the survival and appropriate decision-making. These predictions are constantly being made at different levels of the nervous system. This is evidenced by adaptation to stimulus parameters in sensory coding, and in learning of an up-to-date model of the environment at the behavioral level. This review will discuss recent findings that actions of neurons and animals are selected based on detailed stimulus history in such a way as to maximize information for achieving the task at hand. Information maximization dictates not only how sensory coding should adapt to various statistical aspects of stimuli, but also that reward function should adapt to match the predictive information from past to future. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Framework for a Decision Support System in a Hierarchical Extended Enterprise Decision Context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boza, Andrés; Ortiz, Angel; Vicens, Eduardo; Poler, Raul

Decision Support System (DSS) tools provide useful information to decision makers. In an Extended Enterprise, a new goal, changes in the current objectives or small changes in the extended enterprise configuration produce a necessary adjustment in its decision system. A DSS in this context must be flexible and agile to make suitable an easy and quickly adaptation to this new context. This paper proposes to extend the Hierarchical Production Planning (HPP) structure to an Extended Enterprise decision making context. In this way, a framework for DSS in Extended Enterprise context is defined using components of HPP. Interoperability details have been reviewed to identify the impact in this framework. The proposed framework allows overcoming some interoperability barriers, identifying and organizing components for a DSS in Extended Enterprise context, and working in the definition of an architecture to be used in the design process of a flexible DSS in Extended Enterprise context which can reuse components for futures Extended Enterprise configurations.

Normalization is a general neural mechanism for context-dependent decision making

PubMed Central

Louie, Kenway; Khaw, Mel W.; Glimcher, Paul W.

2013-01-01

Understanding the neural code is critical to linking brain and behavior. In sensory systems, divisive normalization seems to be a canonical neural computation, observed in areas ranging from retina to cortex and mediating processes including contrast adaptation, surround suppression, visual attention, and multisensory integration. Recent electrophysiological studies have extended these insights beyond the sensory domain, demonstrating an analogous algorithm for the value signals that guide decision making, but the effects of normalization on choice behavior are unknown. Here, we show that choice models using normalization generate significant (and classically irrational) choice phenomena driven by either the value or number of alternative options. In value-guided choice experiments, both monkey and human choosers show novel context-dependent behavior consistent with normalization. These findings suggest that the neural mechanism of value coding critically influences stochastic choice behavior and provide a generalizable quantitative framework for examining context effects in decision making. PMID:23530203

Classification of intellectual disability using the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children: Full Scale IQ or General Abilities Index?

PubMed Central

KORIAKIN, TAYLOR A; MCCURDY, MARK D; PAPAZOGLOU, AIMILIA; PRITCHARD, ALISON E; ZABEL, T ANDREW; MAHONE, E MARK; JACOBSON, LISA A

2013-01-01

Aim We examined the implications of using the Full Scale Intelligence Quotient (FSIQ) versus the General Abilities Index (GAI) for determination of intellectual disability using the Wechsler Intelligence Scales for Children, fourth edition (WISC-IV). Method Children referred for neuropsychological assessment (543 males, 290 females; mean age 10y 5mo, SD 2y 9mo, range 6–16y) were administered the WISC-IV and the Adaptive Behavior Assessment System, Second Edition (ABAS-II). Results GAI and FSIQ were highly correlated; however, fewer children were identified as having intellectual disability using GAI (n=159) than when using FSIQ (n=196). Although the 44 children classified as having intellectual disability based upon FSIQ (but not GAI) had significantly higher adaptive functioning scores than those meeting intellectual disability criteria based upon both FSIQ and GAI, mean adaptive scores still fell within the impaired range. FSIQ and GAI were comparable in predicting impairments in adaptive functioning. Interpretation Using GAI rather than FSIQ in intellectual disability diagnostic decision making resulted in fewer individuals being diagnosed with intellectual disability; however, the mean GAI of the disqualified individuals was at the upper end of criteria for intellectual impairment (standard score 75), and these individuals remained adaptively impaired. As GAI and FSIQ were similarly predictive of overall adaptive functioning, the use of GAI for intellectual disability diagnostic decision making may be of limited value. PMID:23859669

Predicting Adaptive Performance in Multicultural Teams: A Causal Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-02-01

with the requirements of the situation. Such evaluations are referred to as stress appraisals ( Lazarus & Folkman , 1984). Stress appraisals are...and Human Decision Processes, 85, 1-31. [15] Lazarus , R.S., & Folkman , S. (1984). Stress, appraisal, and coping. New York: Springer-Verlag...Amos user’s guide. Chicago: Small Waters. [3] Bar-Tal, Y . (1994). The effect on mundane decision-making of the need and ability to achieve cognitive

Using complexity science and negotiation theory to resolve boundary-crossing water issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, Shafiqul; Susskind, Lawrence

2018-07-01

Many water governance and management issues are complex. The complexity of these issues is related to crossing of multiple boundaries: political, social and jurisdictional, as well as physical, ecological and biogeochemical. Resolution of these issues usually requires interactions of many parties with conflicting values and interests operating across multiple boundaries and scales to make decisions. The interdependence and feedback among interacting variables, processes, actors and institutions are hard to model and difficult to forecast. Thus, decision-making related to complex water problems needs be contingent and adaptive. This paper draws on a number of ideas from complexity science and negotiation theory that may make it easier to cope with the complexities and difficulties of managing boundary crossing water disputes. It begins with the Water Diplomacy Framework that was developed and tested over the past several years. Then, it uses three key ideas from complexity science (interdependence and interconnectedness; uncertainty and feedback; emergence and adaptation) and three from negotiation theory (stakeholder identification and engagement; joint fact finding; and value creation through option generation) to show how application of these ideas can help enhance effectiveness of water management.

Normalized value coding explains dynamic adaptation in the human valuation process.

PubMed

Khaw, Mel W; Glimcher, Paul W; Louie, Kenway

2017-11-28

The notion of subjective value is central to choice theories in ecology, economics, and psychology, serving as an integrated decision variable by which options are compared. Subjective value is often assumed to be an absolute quantity, determined in a static manner by the properties of an individual option. Recent neurobiological studies, however, have shown that neural value coding dynamically adapts to the statistics of the recent reward environment, introducing an intrinsic temporal context dependence into the neural representation of value. Whether valuation exhibits this kind of dynamic adaptation at the behavioral level is unknown. Here, we show that the valuation process in human subjects adapts to the history of previous values, with current valuations varying inversely with the average value of recently observed items. The dynamics of this adaptive valuation are captured by divisive normalization, linking these temporal context effects to spatial context effects in decision making as well as spatial and temporal context effects in perception. These findings suggest that adaptation is a universal feature of neural information processing and offer a unifying explanation for contextual phenomena in fields ranging from visual psychophysics to economic choice.

A Word to the Wise: Advice for Scientists Engaged in Collaborative Adaptive Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkinson, Peter; Huber, Ann; Saah, David S.; Battles, John J.

2017-05-01

Collaborative adaptive management is a process for making decisions about the environment in the face of uncertainty and conflict. Scientists have a central role to play in these decisions. However, while scientists are well trained to reduce uncertainty by discovering new knowledge, most lack experience with the means to mitigate conflict in contested situations. To address this gap, we drew from our efforts coordinating a large collaborative adaptive management effort, the Sierra Nevada Adaptive Management Project, to offer advice to our fellow environmental scientists. Key challenges posed by collaborative adaptive management include the confusion caused by multiple institutional cultures, the need to provide information at management-relevant scales, frequent turnover in participants, fluctuations in enthusiasm among key constituencies, and diverse definitions of success among partners. Effective strategies included a dedication to consistency, a commitment to transparency, the willingness to communicate frequently via multiple forums, and the capacity for flexibility. Collaborative adaptive management represents a promising, new model for scientific engagement with the public. Learning the lessons of effective collaboration in environmental management is an essential task to achieve the shared goal of a sustainable future.

Development and Standardization of the Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale: Application of Item Response Theory to the Assessment of Adaptive Behavior.

PubMed

Tassé, Marc J; Schalock, Robert L; Thissen, David; Balboni, Giulia; Bersani, Henry Hank; Borthwick-Duffy, Sharon A; Spreat, Scott; Widaman, Keith F; Zhang, Dalun; Navas, Patricia

2016-03-01

The Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale (DABS) was developed using item response theory (IRT) methods and was constructed to provide the most precise and valid adaptive behavior information at or near the cutoff point of making a decision regarding a diagnosis of intellectual disability. The DABS initial item pool consisted of 260 items. Using IRT modeling and a nationally representative standardization sample, the item set was reduced to 75 items that provide the most precise adaptive behavior information at the cutoff area determining the presence or not of significant adaptive behavior deficits across conceptual, social, and practical skills. The standardization of the DABS is described and discussed.

A Comprehensive Environmental Assessment Approach to Making Informed Decisions about Engineered Nanoparticles

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-05-01

fuel oxygenate MBTE Adapted from Davis, 2007 4 ( 1 ) A multimedia environmental perspective built on a product life cycle framework is essential. (2...Picatinney Arsenal Nanotechnology Research Center: Radiofrequency (RF) Induction Plasma reactor (Tekna Plasma Systems) pilot plant Synthesis Challenges: ( 1 ...Genotoxicity in vivo and in vitro, secondary to ROS (?)23 BUILDING STRONG® CEA: Lessons Learned with fuel oxygenate MBTE Adapted from Davis, 2007 24 ( 1

Integrating land cover modeling and adaptive management to conserve endangered species and reduce catastrophic fire risk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breininger, David; Duncan, Brean; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Johnson, Fred; Nichols, James

2014-01-01

Land cover modeling is used to inform land management, but most often via a two-step process, where science informs how management alternatives can influence resources, and then, decision makers can use this information to make decisions. A more efficient process is to directly integrate science and decision-making, where science allows us to learn in order to better accomplish management objectives and is developed to address specific decisions. Co-development of management and science is especially productive when decisions are complicated by multiple objectives and impeded by uncertainty. Multiple objectives can be met by the specification of tradeoffs, and relevant uncertainty can be addressed through targeted science (i.e., models and monitoring). We describe how to integrate habitat and fuel monitoring with decision-making focused on the dual objectives of managing for endangered species and minimizing catastrophic fire risk. Under certain conditions, both objectives might be achieved by a similar management policy; other conditions require tradeoffs between objectives. Knowledge about system responses to actions can be informed by developing hypotheses based on ideas about fire behavior and then applying competing management actions to different land units in the same system state. Monitoring and management integration is important to optimize state-specific management decisions and to increase knowledge about system responses. We believe this approach has broad utility and identifies a clear role for land cover modeling programs intended to inform decision-making.

The Voice of the Patient Methodology: A Novel Mixed-Methods Approach to Identifying Treatment Goals for Men with Prostate Cancer.

PubMed

Saigal, Christopher S; Lambrechts, Sylvia I; Seenu Srinivasan, V; Dahan, Ely

2017-06-01

Many guidelines advocate the use of shared decision making for men with newly diagnosed prostate cancer. Decision aids can facilitate the process of shared decision making. Implicit in this approach is the idea that physicians understand which elements of treatment matter to patients. Little formal work exists to guide physicians or developers of decision aids in identifying these attributes. We use a mixed-methods technique adapted from marketing science, the 'Voice of the Patient', to describe and identify treatment elements of value for men with localized prostate cancer. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 30 men treated for prostate cancer in the urology clinic of the West Los Angeles Veteran Affairs Medical Center. We used a qualitative analysis to generate themes in patient narratives, and a quantitative approach, agglomerative hierarchical clustering, to identify attributes of treatment that were most relevant to patients making decisions about prostate cancer. We identified five 'traditional' prostate cancer treatment attributes: sexual dysfunction, bowel problems, urinary problems, lifespan, and others' opinions. We further identified two novel treatment attributes: a treatment's ability to validate a sense of proactivity and the need for an incision (separate from risks of surgery). Application of a successful marketing technique, the 'Voice of the Customer', in a clinical setting elicits non-obvious attributes that highlight unique patient decision-making concerns. Use of this method in the development of decision aids may result in more effective decision support.

What are parents' perspectives on psychological empowerment in the MMR vaccination decision? A focus group study

PubMed Central

Fadda, Marta; Galimberti, Elisa; Carraro, Valter; Schulz, Peter J

2016-01-01

Objectives Most developed countries do not have compulsory immunisation requirements, but instead issue recommendations. Although parents are expected to make an informed, autonomous (ie, empowered) decision regarding their children's vaccinations, there is no evidence about how parents' interpret this demand nor on the latitude of their decision-making. The goal of this study is to gain insights from parents residing in a low measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) uptake area on what constitutes feelings of empowerment in the decision they have to make on their child's MMR vaccination. Design A qualitative study employing focus group interviews. Setting 11 vaccination centres and hospitals in the Province of Trento, Italy. Participants 24 mothers and 4 fathers of children for whom the MMR vaccination decision was still pending participated in 6 focus groups. Results Autonomy and competence were salient themes in relation to empowerment, and were further connected with beliefs regarding legal responsibility and ethics of freedom concerning the decision, parents' relationship with the paediatrician (trust), feelings of relevance of the decision and related stress, and seeking, avoidance, or fear of vaccination-related information. Competence was interpreted as medical knowledge and information-seeking skills, but it was also related to the extent parents perceived the paediatrician to be competent. Conclusions Since parents' interpretation of empowerment goes beyond mere perceptions of being informed and autonomous and differs across individuals, it is important that this construct be correctly interpreted and implemented by best practice, for instance by explicitly adopting a relational conception of autonomy. Knowing whether parents want to make an empowered decision and what their information and autonomy needs are might help health professionals adapt their communication about immunisation, and promote parental perception of making an informed, autonomous decision. PMID:27084284

Guiding climate change adaptation within vulnerable natural resource management systems.

PubMed

Bardsley, Douglas K; Sweeney, Susan M

2010-05-01

Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

Analysis of Swedish Forest Owners' Information and Knowledge-Sharing Networks for Decision-Making: Insights for Climate Change Communication and Adaptation.

PubMed

André, Karin; Baird, Julia; Gerger Swartling, Åsa; Vulturius, Gregor; Plummer, Ryan

2017-06-01

To further the understanding of climate change adaptation processes, more attention needs to be paid to the various contextual factors that shape whether and how climate-related knowledge and information is received and acted upon by actors involved. This study sets out to examine the characteristics of forest owners' in Sweden, the information and knowledge-sharing networks they draw upon for decision-making, and their perceptions of climate risks, their forests' resilience, the need for adaptation, and perceived adaptive capacity. By applying the concept of ego-network analysis, the empirical data was generated by a quantitative survey distributed to 3000 private forest owners' in Sweden in 2014 with a response rate of 31%. The results show that there is a positive correlation, even though it is generally weak, between forest owner climate perceptions and (i) network features, i.e. network size and heterogeneity, and (ii) presence of certain alter groups (i.e. network members or actors). Results indicate that forest owners' social networks currently serve only a minimal function of sharing knowledge of climate change and adaptation. Moreover, considering the fairly infrequent contact between respondents and alter groups, the timing of knowledge sharing is important. In conclusion we suggest those actors that forest owners' most frequently communicate with, especially forestry experts providing advisory services (e.g. forest owner associations, companies, and authorities) have a clear role to communicate both the risks of climate change and opportunities for adaptation. Peers are valuable in connecting information about climate risks and adaptation to the actual forest property.

Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardsley, Douglas K.; Sweeney, Susan M.

2010-05-01

Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

Analysis of Swedish Forest Owners' Information and Knowledge-Sharing Networks for Decision-Making: Insights for Climate Change Communication and Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

André, Karin; Baird, Julia; Gerger Swartling, Åsa; Vulturius, Gregor; Plummer, Ryan

2017-06-01

To further the understanding of climate change adaptation processes, more attention needs to be paid to the various contextual factors that shape whether and how climate-related knowledge and information is received and acted upon by actors involved. This study sets out to examine the characteristics of forest owners' in Sweden, the information and knowledge-sharing networks they draw upon for decision-making, and their perceptions of climate risks, their forests' resilience, the need for adaptation, and perceived adaptive capacity. By applying the concept of ego-network analysis, the empirical data was generated by a quantitative survey distributed to 3000 private forest owners' in Sweden in 2014 with a response rate of 31%. The results show that there is a positive correlation, even though it is generally weak, between forest owner climate perceptions and (i) network features, i.e. network size and heterogeneity, and (ii) presence of certain alter groups (i.e. network members or actors). Results indicate that forest owners' social networks currently serve only a minimal function of sharing knowledge of climate change and adaptation. Moreover, considering the fairly infrequent contact between respondents and alter groups, the timing of knowledge sharing is important. In conclusion we suggest those actors that forest owners' most frequently communicate with, especially forestry experts providing advisory services (e.g. forest owner associations, companies, and authorities) have a clear role to communicate both the risks of climate change and opportunities for adaptation. Peers are valuable in connecting information about climate risks and adaptation to the actual forest property.

Neural correlates of uncertain decision making: ERP evidence from the Iowa Gambling Task

PubMed Central

Cui, Ji-fang; Chen, Ying-he; Wang, Ya; Shum, David H. K.; Chan, Raymond C. K.

2013-01-01

In our daily life, it is very common to make decisions in uncertain situations. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has been widely used in laboratory studies because of its good simulation of uncertainty in real life activities. The present study aimed to examine the neural correlates of uncertain decision making with the IGT. Twenty-six university students completed this study. An adapted IGT was administered to them, and the EEG data were recorded. The adapted IGT we used allowed us to analyze the choice evaluation, response selection, and feedback evaluation stages of uncertain decision making within the same paradigm. In the choice evaluation stage, the advantageous decks evoked larger P3 amplitude in the left hemisphere, while the disadvantageous decks evoked larger P3 in the right hemisphere. In the response selection stage, the response of “pass” (the card was not turned over; the participants neither won nor lost money) evoked larger negativity preceding the response compared to that of “play” (the card was turned over; the participant either won or lost money). In the feedback evaluation stage, feedback-related negativity (FRN) was only sensitive to the valence (win/loss) but not the magnitude (large/small) of the outcome, and P3 was sensitive to both the valence and the magnitude of the outcome. These results were consistent with the notion that a positive somatic state was represented in the left hemisphere and a negative somatic state was represented in the right hemisphere. There were also anticipatory ERP effects that guided the participants' responses and provided evidence for the somatic marker hypothesis with more precise timing. PMID:24298248

A Diagnostic Taxonomy of Adult Career Problems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Robert E.; Cellini, James V.

1981-01-01

Developed a taxonomy for the differential diagnosis of adult career development problems. Problem categories identified were: (1) problems in career decision making; (2) problems in implementing career plans; (3) problems in organizational/institutional performance; and (4) problems in organizational/institutional adaption. (Author)

Integration of individual and social information for decision-making in groups of different sizes.

PubMed

Park, Seongmin A; Goïame, Sidney; O'Connor, David A; Dreher, Jean-Claude

2017-06-01

When making judgments in a group, individuals often revise their initial beliefs about the best judgment to make given what others believe. Despite the ubiquity of this phenomenon, we know little about how the brain updates beliefs when integrating personal judgments (individual information) with those of others (social information). Here, we investigated the neurocomputational mechanisms of how we adapt our judgments to those made by groups of different sizes, in the context of jury decisions for a criminal. By testing different theoretical models, we showed that a social Bayesian inference model captured changes in judgments better than 2 other models. Our results showed that participants updated their beliefs by appropriately weighting individual and social sources of information according to their respective credibility. When investigating 2 fundamental computations of Bayesian inference, belief updates and credibility estimates of social information, we found that the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) computed the level of belief updates, while the bilateral frontopolar cortex (FPC) was more engaged in individuals who assigned a greater credibility to the judgments of a larger group. Moreover, increased functional connectivity between these 2 brain regions reflected a greater influence of group size on the relative credibility of social information. These results provide a mechanistic understanding of the computational roles of the FPC-dACC network in steering judgment adaptation to a group's opinion. Taken together, these findings provide a computational account of how the human brain integrates individual and social information for decision-making in groups.

A risk-based decision support framework for selection of appropriate safety measure system for underground coal mines.

PubMed

Samantra, Chitrasen; Datta, Saurav; Mahapatra, Siba Sankar

2017-03-01

In the context of underground coal mining industry, the increased economic issues regarding implementation of additional safety measure systems, along with growing public awareness to ensure high level of workers safety, have put great pressure on the managers towards finding the best solution to ensure safe as well as economically viable alternative selection. Risk-based decision support system plays an important role in finding such solutions amongst candidate alternatives with respect to multiple decision criteria. Therefore, in this paper, a unified risk-based decision-making methodology has been proposed for selecting an appropriate safety measure system in relation to an underground coal mining industry with respect to multiple risk criteria such as financial risk, operating risk, and maintenance risk. The proposed methodology uses interval-valued fuzzy set theory for modelling vagueness and subjectivity in the estimates of fuzzy risk ratings for making appropriate decision. The methodology is based on the aggregative fuzzy risk analysis and multi-criteria decision making. The selection decisions are made within the context of understanding the total integrated risk that is likely to incur while adapting the particular safety system alternative. Effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been validated through a real-time case study. The result in the context of final priority ranking is seemed fairly consistent.

A holistic strategy for adaptive land management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Duniway, Michael C.; Pyke, David A.; Bestelmeyer, Brandon T.; Wills, Skye A.; Brown, Joel R.; Karl, Jason W.; Havstad, Kris M.

2012-01-01

Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management (Holling 1973; Walters and Holling 1990). Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adaptation of management until desired results are achieved (Brown and MacLeod 1996; Savory and Butterfield 1999). However, adaptive management is often criticized because very few projects ever complete more than one cycle, resulting in little adaptation and little knowledge gain (Lee 1999; Walters 2007). One significant criticism is that adaptive management is often used as a justification for undertaking actions with uncertain outcomes or as a surrogate for the development of specific, measurable indicators and monitoring programs (Lee 1999; Ruhl 2007).

Sequential causal inference: Application to randomized trials of adaptive treatment strategies

PubMed Central

Dawson, Ree; Lavori, Philip W.

2009-01-01

SUMMARY Clinical trials that randomize subjects to decision algorithms, which adapt treatments over time according to individual response, have gained considerable interest as investigators seek designs that directly inform clinical decision making. We consider designs in which subjects are randomized sequentially at decision points, among adaptive treatment options under evaluation. We present a sequential method to estimate the comparative effects of the randomized adaptive treatments, which are formalized as adaptive treatment strategies. Our causal estimators are derived using Bayesian predictive inference. We use analytical and empirical calculations to compare the predictive estimators to (i) the ‘standard’ approach that allocates the sequentially obtained data to separate strategy-specific groups as would arise from randomizing subjects at baseline; (ii) the semi-parametric approach of marginal mean models that, under appropriate experimental conditions, provides the same sequential estimator of causal differences as the proposed approach. Simulation studies demonstrate that sequential causal inference offers substantial efficiency gains over the standard approach to comparing treatments, because the predictive estimators can take advantage of the monotone structure of shared data among adaptive strategies. We further demonstrate that the semi-parametric asymptotic variances, which are marginal ‘one-step’ estimators, may exhibit significant bias, in contrast to the predictive variances. We show that the conditions under which the sequential method is attractive relative to the other two approaches are those most likely to occur in real studies. PMID:17914714

Working for a living: the vocational decision making of lesbians.

PubMed

Hook, Misty K; Bowman, Sharon

2008-01-01

While lesbians are similar to other women in that they face discrimination in the workplace based on gender, ethnicity and class, they also have unique needs and confront bias because of their sexual orientation. Thus, choosing an occupation is an extremely important task for many lesbians. In order to adequately serve a lesbian population, vocational counselors need to be aware of how lesbians choose occupations. Astin's (1985) and Gottfredson's (1981) theories of career development can be adapted to help explain the vocational needs of lesbians. This article will review the major findings within the field, discuss how the two theories relate to the vocational decision-making process of lesbian women and make suggestions for how to do vocational counseling with lesbians.

'Kids need to talk too': inclusive practices for children's healthcare education and participation.

PubMed

Koller, Donna

2017-09-01

To examine how children with chronic medical conditions view healthcare education and decision-making and to propose the application of the universal design for learning in paediatric settings. Children and adolescents with chronic medical conditions tend to be excluded from healthcare decision-making. In schools, the universal design for learning promotes access to education and participation in school communities for all children, regardless of their disabilities or medical needs, rendering it an appropriate model for children's participation in healthcare decision-making. This article presents findings from a qualitative study with 26 children and adolescents with chronic medical conditions about their views and experiences with healthcare education and decision-making. Twenty-six children and adolescents with chronic medical conditions were interviewed using semi-structured interviews. Findings provide evidence that clinical practices often fail to provide equal opportunities for paediatric patients to understand their condition, share their views and/or participate in decisions regarding their care. In response to ongoing concerns about paediatric decision-making, we propose that the universal design for learning be adapted in paediatrics. The model presents exemplary programmes as inclusive, accounting for the needs of all children through multiple means of engagement and expression. A discussion of how the principles of universal design for learning could be applied in paediatric settings is offered for the purpose of advancing ethical and psychosocial care for all children regardless of their age, developmental capacity or condition. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Native Comic Book Project: native youth making comics and healthy decisions.

PubMed

Montgomery, Michelle; Manuelito, Brenda; Nass, Carrie; Chock, Tami; Buchwald, Dedra

2012-04-01

American Indians and Alaska Natives have traditionally used stories and drawings to positively influence the well-being of their communities. The objective of this study was to describe the development of a curriculum that trains Native youth leaders to plan, write, and design original comic books to enhance healthy decision making. Project staff developed the Native Comic Book Project by adapting Dr. Michael Bitz's Comic Book Project to incorporate Native comic book art, Native storytelling, and decision-making skills. After conducting five train-the-trainer sessions for Native youth, staff were invited by youth participants to implement the full curriculum as a pilot test at one tribal community site in the Pacific Northwest. Implementation was accompanied by surveys and weekly participant observations and was followed by an interactive meeting to assess youth engagement, determine project acceptability, and solicit suggestions for curriculum changes. Six youths aged 12 to 15 (average age = 14) participated in the Native Comic Book Project. Youth participants stated that they liked the project and gained knowledge of the harmful effects of commercial tobacco use but wanted better integration of comic book creation, decision making, and Native storytelling themes. Previous health-related comic book projects did not recruit youth as active producers of content. This curriculum shows promise as a culturally appropriate intervention to help Native youth adopt healthy decision-making skills and healthy behaviors by creating their own comic books.

Cultural adaptation and linguistic validation of the Family Decision Making Self Efficacy Scale (FDMSES).

PubMed

Limardi, S; Rocco, G; Stievano, A; Vellone, E; Valle, A; Torino, F; Alvaro, R

2014-01-01

Nurses, following their ethical mandate, collaborate with other health and social professionals or people involved in caring activities. Caregivers in this context are becoming more and more significant for the family or the cared person, who for their stable presence and emotional proximity play a pivotal caring role. To maximize the contribution of caregivers, objective tools that emphasize their skill sets are necessary. The cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the Family Decision Making Self-Efficacy Scale is part of a larger project aimed at understanding the resilience of caregivers in the field of palliative care. Self-efficacy is one of the aspects of personality most closely associated with resilience. Self-efficacy is shown in a specific context, therefore, its study and evaluation of its level, require capabilities that enable individuals perceive themselves as effective in a particular circumstance. The Family Decision Making Self- Efficacy Scale assesses the behavior of caregivers of patients at the end of their life. The Family Decision Making Self-Efficacy Scale was translated (forward and back translation) and was adapted to the Italian clinical cultural setting by a research team that included experts in palliative care, native translators with experience in nursing and experts in nursing. A consensus on the wording of each item in relation to semantic, idiomatic, experiential and conceptual equivalence was sought. The clarity of the wording and the pertinence of the items of the scenario with the conscious patient and with the unconscious patient were evaluated by a group of caregivers who tested the instrument. The Italian version of the instrument included 12 items for the scenario with the conscious patient and 12 for the scenario with the unconscious patient. The working group expressed consensus on the pretesting version of the instrument. The pre-testing version of the scale was tested on 60 caregivers, 47 taking care of conscious patients and 13 taking care of unconscious patients. In both cases the content of the items was judged relevant and understandable. The results for the cross-cultural validation were satisfactory and allowed the application of the instrument in the Italian context.

Recovery and resilience after a nuclear power plant disaster: a medical decision model for managing an effective, timely, and balanced response.

PubMed

Coleman, C Norman; Blumenthal, Daniel J; Casto, Charles A; Alfant, Michael; Simon, Steven L; Remick, Alan L; Gepford, Heather J; Bowman, Thomas; Telfer, Jana L; Blumenthal, Pamela M; Noska, Michael A

2013-04-01

Resilience after a nuclear power plant or other radiation emergency requires response and recovery activities that are appropriately safe, timely, effective, and well organized. Timely informed decisions must be made, and the logic behind them communicated during the evolution of the incident before the final outcome is known. Based on our experiences in Tokyo responding to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant crisis, we propose a real-time, medical decision model by which to make key health-related decisions that are central drivers to the overall incident management. Using this approach, on-site decision makers empowered to make interim decisions can act without undue delay using readily available and high-level scientific, medical, communication, and policy expertise. Ongoing assessment, consultation, and adaption to the changing conditions and additional information are additional key features. Given the central role of health and medical issues in all disasters, we propose that this medical decision model, which is compatible with the existing US National Response Framework structure, be considered for effective management of complex, large-scale, and large-consequence incidents.

Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk are not the Same as in Decisions Under Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Volz, Kirsten G.; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2012-01-01

We deal with risk versus uncertainty, a distinction that is of fundamental importance for cognitive neuroscience yet largely neglected. In a world of risk (“small world”), all alternatives, consequences, and probabilities are known. In uncertain (“large”) worlds, some of this information is unknown or unknowable. Most of cognitive neuroscience studies exclusively study the neural correlates for decisions under risk (e.g., lotteries), with the tacit implication that understanding these would lead to an understanding of decision making in general. First, we show that normative strategies for decisions under risk do not generalize to uncertain worlds, where simple heuristics are often the more accurate strategies. Second, we argue that the cognitive processes for making decisions in a world of risk are not the same as those for dealing with uncertainty. Because situations with known risks are the exception rather than the rule in human evolution, it is unlikely that our brains are adapted to them. We therefore suggest a paradigm shift toward studying decision processes in uncertain worlds and provide first examples. PMID:22807893

Information Needs Assessment for Coastal and Marine Management and Policy: Ecosystem Services Under Changing Climatic, Land Use, and Demographic Conditions.

PubMed

Goldsmith, Kaitlin A; Granek, Elise F; Lubitow, Amy

2015-12-01

Changing climatic, demographic, and land use conditions are projected to alter the provisioning of ecosystem services in estuarine, coastal, and nearshore marine ecosystems, necessitating mitigation and adaptation policies and management. The current paradigm of research efforts occurring in parallel to, rather than in collaboration with, decision makers will be insufficient for the rapid responses required to adapt to and mitigate for projected changing conditions. Here, we suggest a different paradigm: one where research begins by engaging decision makers in the identification of priority data needs (biophysical, economic, and social). This paper uses synthesized interview data to provide insight into the varied demands for scientific research as described by decision makers working on coastal issues in Oregon, USA. The findings highlight the need to recognize (1) the differing framing of ecosystem services by decision makers versus scientists; and (2) the differing data priorities relevant to inland versus coastal decision makers. The findings further serve to highlight the need for decision makers, scientists, and funders to engage in increased communication. This research is an important first step in advancing efforts toward evidence-based decision making in Oregon and provides a template for further research across the US.

Conflicts of interest improve collective computation of adaptive social structures

PubMed Central

Brush, Eleanor R.; Krakauer, David C.; Flack, Jessica C.

2018-01-01

In many biological systems, the functional behavior of a group is collectively computed by the system’s individual components. An example is the brain’s ability to make decisions via the activity of billions of neurons. A long-standing puzzle is how the components’ decisions combine to produce beneficial group-level outputs, despite conflicts of interest and imperfect information. We derive a theoretical model of collective computation from mechanistic first principles, using results from previous work on the computation of power structure in a primate model system. Collective computation has two phases: an information accumulation phase, in which (in this study) pairs of individuals gather information about their fighting abilities and make decisions about their dominance relationships, and an information aggregation phase, in which these decisions are combined to produce a collective computation. To model information accumulation, we extend a stochastic decision-making model—the leaky integrator model used to study neural decision-making—to a multiagent game-theoretic framework. We then test alternative algorithms for aggregating information—in this study, decisions about dominance resulting from the stochastic model—and measure the mutual information between the resultant power structure and the “true” fighting abilities. We find that conflicts of interest can improve accuracy to the benefit of all agents. We also find that the computation can be tuned to produce different power structures by changing the cost of waiting for a decision. The successful application of a similar stochastic decision-making model in neural and social contexts suggests general principles of collective computation across substrates and scales. PMID:29376116

Canceled connections: Lesion-derived network mapping helps explain differences in performance on a complex decision-making task

PubMed Central

Sutterer, Matthew J.; Bruss, Joel; Boes, Aaron D.; Voss, Michelle W.; Bechara, Antoine; Tranel, Daniel

2016-01-01

Studies of patients with brain damage have highlighted a broad neural network of limbic and prefrontal areas as important for adaptive decision-making. However, some patients with damage outside these regions have impaired decision-making behavior, and the behavioral impairments observed in these cases are often attributed to the general variability in behavior following brain damage, rather than a deficit in a specific brain-behavior relationship. A novel approach, lesion-derived network mapping, uses healthy subject resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC) data to infer the areas that would be connected with each patient’s lesion area in healthy adults. Here, we used this approach to investigate whether there was a systematic pattern of connectivity associated with decision-making performance in patients with focal damage in areas not classically associated with decision-making. These patients were categorized a priori into “impaired” or “unimpaired” groups based on their performance on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). Lesion-derived network maps based on the impaired patients showed overlap in somatosensory, motor and insula cortices, to a greater extent than patients who showed unimpaired IGT performance. Akin to the classic concept of “diaschisis” (von Monakow, 1914), this focus on the remote effects that focal damage can have on large-scale distributed brain networks has the potential to inform not only differences in decision-making behavior, but also other cognitive functions or neurological syndromes where a distinct phenotype has eluded neuroanatomical classification and brain-behavior relationships appear highly heterogeneous. PMID:26994344

Higher Trait Psychopathy Is Associated with Increased Risky Decision-Making and Less Coincident Insula and Striatal Activity

PubMed Central

Sutherland, Matthew T.; Fishbein, Diana H.

2017-01-01

Higher trait levels of psychopathy have been associated with both a tendency to maintain disadvantageous decision-making strategies and aberrant cortico-limbic neural activity. To explore the neural mechanisms associated with the psychopathy-related propensity to continue selecting risky choices, a non-forensic sample of participants completed a self-report psychopathy questionnaire and two runs of a risky decision-making task during H215O positron emission tomography (PET) scanning. In this secondary data analysis study, we leveraged data previously collected to examine the impact of previous drug use on risky decision-making to explore the relations between self-reported psychopathy and behavioral and brain metrics during performance of the Cambridge Decision-Making Task (CDMT), in which volunteers chose between small/likely or large/unlikely potential reward outcomes. Behaviorally, we observed that psychopathy scores were differentially correlated with the percent of risky decisions made in run 1 vs. run 2 of the task. Specifically, higher levels of psychopathy, above and beyond that attributable to drug use or sex, were associated with greater tendencies to make risky selections only in the second half (run 2) of the task. In parallel, psychopathy scores negatively correlated with regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) in the right insula and right ventral striatum during run 2 of the CDMT. These exploratory outcomes suggest that greater levels of psychopathy may be associated with an inability to translate experience with negative outcomes into behavioral adaptations possibly due to decreased neural efficiency in regions related to somatic and/or reward feedback processes. PMID:29311863

Decision Making: from Neuroscience to Psychiatry

PubMed Central

Lee, Daeyeol

2013-01-01

Adaptive behaviors increase the likelihood of survival and reproduction and improve the quality of life. However, it is often difficult to identify optimal behaviors in real life due to the complexity of the decision maker’s environment and social dynamics. As a result, although many different brain areas and circuits are involved in decision making, evolutionary and learning solutions adopted by individual decision makers sometimes produce suboptimal outcomes. Although these problems are exacerbated in numerous neurological and psychiatric disorders, their underlying neurobiological causes remain incompletely understood. In this review, theoretical frameworks in economics and machine learning and their applications in recent behavioral and neurobiological studies are summarized. Examples of such applications in clinical domains are also discussed for substance abuse, Parkinson’s disease, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, schizophrenia, mood disorders, and autism. Findings from these studies have begun to lay the foundations necessary to improve diagnostics and treatment for various neurological and psychiatric disorders. PMID:23622061

Fostering Synergies Among Organizations to put Climate in Context for Use in Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garfin, G. M.; Parris, A.; Dow, K.; Meyer, R.; Close, S.

2016-12-01

Making science usable for decision making requires a knowledge of the social and institutional contexts of decision making, an ability to develop or tap into networks for sharing information and developing knowledge, a capacity for innovating or providing services, and a program for social learning to inform decisions and improve the processes of engagement and collaboration (i.e., mechanisms for feedback, evaluation, and changes in policy or practices). Active participation by and partnerships between researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers provides a foundation for making progress in each of the aforementioned areas of endeavor. In twenty years of incubating experimental climate services, the NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments program offers not a few ideas and examples of practices to foster synergies among organizations, that result in tangible benefits to decision-makers. Strategies include (a) designing explicit mutual learning through temporary institutions, such as workshop series, in order to develop social capital and knowledge networks (e.g., to co-develop and disseminate experimental forecasts); (b) articulating ground rules, roles, and responsibilities in managing the boundary between scientists and practitioners (e.g., in multi-partner climate adaptation planning processes); and (c) cross-training between scientists and practitioners, by embedding team members in other organizations or recruiting members from those organizations (e.g., Cooperative Extension). A promising strategy is boundary chaining, pioneered by the Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments, in which science information and service providers partner with other boundary organizations, to leverage networks, expertise, resources, and to reduce transaction costs. Partners with complementary strengths and roles can then, work iteratively and synergize to mediate the co-production of a combination of services for decision making, such as data and information, facilitation, and evaluation.

Smart strategies for doctors and doctors-in-training: heuristics in medicine.

PubMed

Wegwarth, Odette; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2009-08-01

How do doctors make sound decisions when confronted with probabilistic data, time pressures and a heavy workload? One theory that has been embraced by many researchers is based on optimisation, which emphasises the need to integrate all information in order to arrive at sound decisions. This notion makes heuristics, which use less than complete information, appear as second-best strategies. In this article, we challenge this pessimistic view of heuristics. We introduce two medical problems that involve decision making to the reader: one concerns coronary care issues and the other macrolide prescriptions. In both settings, decision-making tools grounded in the principles of optimisation and heuristics, respectively, have been developed to assist doctors in making decisions. We explain the structure of each of these tools and compare their performance in terms of their facilitation of correct predictions. For decisions concerning both the coronary care unit and the prescribing of macrolides, we demonstrate that sacrificing information does not necessarily imply a forfeiting of predictive accuracy, but can sometimes even lead to better decisions. Subsequently, we discuss common misconceptions about heuristics and explain when and why ignoring parts of the available information can lead to the making of more robust predictions. Heuristics are neither good nor bad per se, but, if applied in situations to which they have been adapted, can be helpful companions for doctors and doctors-in-training. This, however, requires that heuristics in medicine be openly discussed, criticised, refined and then taught to doctors-in-training rather than being simply dismissed as harmful or irrelevant. A more uniform use of explicit and accepted heuristics has the potential to reduce variations in diagnoses and to improve medical care for patients.

Methods and decision making on a Mars rover for identification of fossils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eberlein, Susan; Yates, Gigi

1989-01-01

A system for automated fusion and interpretation of image data from multiple sensors, including multispectral data from an imaging spectrometer is being developed. Classical artificial intelligence techniques and artificial neural networks are employed to make real time decision based on current input and known scientific goals. Emphasis is placed on identifying minerals which could indicate past life activity or an environment supportive of life. Multispectral data can be used for geological analysis because different minerals have characteristic spectral reflectance in the visible and near infrared range. Classification of each spectrum into a broad class, based on overall spectral shape and locations of absorption bands is possible in real time using artificial neural networks. The goal of the system is twofold: multisensor and multispectral data must be interpreted in real time so that potentially interesting sites can be flagged and investigated in more detail while the rover is near those sites; and the sensed data must be reduced to the most compact form possible without loss of crucial information. Autonomous decision making will allow a rover to achieve maximum scientific benefit from a mission. Both a classical rule based approach and a decision neural network for making real time choices are being considered. Neural nets may work well for adaptive decision making. A neural net can be trained to work in two steps. First, the actual input state is mapped to the closest of a number of memorized states. After weighing the importance of various input parameters, the net produces an output decision based on the matched memory state. Real time, autonomous image data analysis and decision making capabilities are required for achieving maximum scientific benefit from a rover mission. The system under development will enhance the chances of identifying fossils or environments capable of supporting life on Mars

A Pilot Study of Neonatologists' Decision-Making Roles in Delivery Room Resuscitation Counseling for Periviable Births.

PubMed

Tucker Edmonds, Brownsyne; McKenzie, Fatima; Panoch, Janet E; White, Douglas B; Barnato, Amber E

2016-07-01

Relatively little is known about neonatologists' roles in helping families navigate the difficult decision to attempt or withhold resuscitation for a neonate delivering at the threshold of viability. Therefore, we aimed to describe the "decision-making role" of neonatologists in simulated periviable counseling sessions. We conducted a qualitative content analysis of audio-recorded simulation encounters and post-encounter debriefing interviews collected as part of a single-center simulation study of neonatologists' resuscitation counseling practices in the face of ruptured membranes at 23 weeks gestation. We trained standardized patients to request a recommendation if the physician presented multiple treatment options. We coded each encounter for communication behaviors, applying an adapted, previously developed coding scheme to classify physicians into four decision-making roles (informative, facilitative, collaborative, or directive). We also coded post-simulation debriefing interviews for responses to the open-ended prompt: "During this encounter, what did you feel was your role in the management decision-making process?" Fifteen neonatologists (33% of the division) participated in the study; audio-recorded debriefing interviews were available for 13. We observed 9 (60%) take an informative role, providing medical information only; 2 (13%) take a facilitative role, additionally eliciting the patient's values; 3 (20%) take a collaborative role, additionally engaging the patient in deliberation and providing a recommendation; and 1 (7%) take a directive role, making a treatment decision independent of the patient. Almost all (10/13, 77%) of the neonatologists described their intended role as informative. Neonatologists did not routinely elicit preferences, engage in deliberation, or provide treatment recommendations-even in response to requests for recommendations. These findings suggest there may be a gap between policy recommendations calling for shared decision making and actual clinical practice.

Modeling spatial decisions with graph theory: logging roads and forest fragmentation in the Brazilian Amazon.

PubMed

Walker, Robert; Arima, Eugenio; Messina, Joe; Soares-Filho, Britaldo; Perz, Stephen; Vergara, Dante; Sales, Marcio; Pereira, Ritaumaria; Castro, Williams

2013-01-01

This article addresses the spatial decision-making of loggers and implications for forest fragmentation in the Amazon basin. It provides a behavioral explanation for fragmentation by modeling how loggers build road networks, typically abandoned upon removal of hardwoods. Logging road networks provide access to land, and the settlers who take advantage of them clear fields and pastures that accentuate their spatial signatures. In shaping agricultural activities, these networks organize emergent patterns of forest fragmentation, even though the loggers move elsewhere. The goal of the article is to explicate how loggers shape their road networks, in order to theoretically explain an important type of forest fragmentation found in the Amazon basin, particularly in Brazil. This is accomplished by adapting graph theory to represent the spatial decision-making of loggers, and by implementing computational algorithms that build graphs interpretable as logging road networks. The economic behavior of loggers is conceptualized as a profit maximization problem, and translated into spatial decision-making by establishing a formal correspondence between mathematical graphs and road networks. New computational approaches, adapted from operations research, are used to construct graphs and simulate spatial decision-making as a function of discount rates, land tenure, and topographic constraints. The algorithms employed bracket a range of behavioral settings appropriate for areas of terras de volutas, public lands that have not been set aside for environmental protection, indigenous peoples, or colonization. The simulation target sites are located in or near so-called Terra do Meio, once a major logging frontier in the lower Amazon Basin. Simulation networks are compared to empirical ones identified by remote sensing and then used to draw inferences about factors influencing the spatial behavior of loggers. Results overall suggest that Amazonia's logging road networks induce more fragmentation than necessary to access fixed quantities of wood. The paper concludes by considering implications of the approach and findings for Brazil's move to a system of concession logging.

Adoption? Adaptation? Evaluating the Formation of Educational Expectations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrew, Megan; Hauser, Robert M.

2011-01-01

Sociologists have long used educational expectations to understand the complex mental processes underlying individuals' educational decision making. Yet, little research evaluates how students actually formulate their educational expectations. Status attainment theory asserts that students adopt their educational expectations early based on family…

Maximizing Investment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewart, David

2010-01-01

Classrooms are adapting to new teaching approaches, propelling the educational environment to new heights of learning. In this changing environment, education institutions need to make sure that each dollar spent is beneficial to students. With funding decisions scrutinized by teachers, parents and taxpayers, purchases must meet an institution's…

Second Chances

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boyd, Karen Anne

2007-01-01

Accommodating change in existing buildings on a college campus or in a school district is challenging, but manageable. The key to successful adaptive reuse is thoughtful and thorough decision-making. Why consider recycling existing buildings? There are many reasons, including limited institutional resources, the increasing cost of new…

Using weather data to improve decision-making

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Weather in the western United States is relatively dry and highly variable. The consequences of this variability can be effectively dealt with through the process of adaptive management which includes contingency planning for partial restoration success or restoration failure in any given year. Pr...

Game relativity: how context influences strategic decision making.

PubMed

Vlaev, Ivo; Chater, Nick

2006-01-01

Existing models of strategic decision making typically assume that only the attributes of the currently played game need be considered when reaching a decision. The results presented in this article demonstrate that the so-called "co-operativeness" of the previously played prisoner's dilemma games influence choices and predictions in the current prisoner's dilemma game, which suggests that games are not considered independently. These effects involved reinforcement-based assimilation to the previous choices and also a perceptual contrast of the present game with preceding games, depending on the range and the rank of their co-operativeness. A. Parducci's (1965) range frequency theory and H. Helson's (1964) adaptation level theory are plausible theories of relative judgment of magnitude information, which could provide an account of these context effects. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

A dedicated software application for treatment verification with off-line PET/CT imaging at the Heidelberg Ion Beam Therapy Center

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, W.; Bauer, J.; Kurz, C.; Tessonnier, T.; Handrack, J.; Haberer, T.; Debus, J.; Parodi, K.

2017-01-01

We present the workflow of the offline-PET based range verification method used at the Heidelberg Ion Beam Therapy Center, detailing the functionalities of an in-house developed software application, SimInterface14, with which range analysis is performed. Moreover, we introduce the design of a decision support system assessing uncertainties and facilitating physicians in decisions making for plan adaptation.