Adaptive invasive species distribution models: A framework for modeling incipient invasions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.; Corral, Lucia; Fricke, Kent A.

2015-01-01

The utilization of species distribution model(s) (SDM) for approximating, explaining, and predicting changes in species’ geographic locations is increasingly promoted for proactive ecological management. Although frameworks for modeling non-invasive species distributions are relatively well developed, their counterparts for invasive species—which may not be at equilibrium within recipient environments and often exhibit rapid transformations—are lacking. Additionally, adaptive ecological management strategies address the causes and effects of biological invasions and other complex issues in social-ecological systems. We conducted a review of biological invasions, species distribution models, and adaptive practices in ecological management, and developed a framework for adaptive, niche-based, invasive species distribution model (iSDM) development and utilization. This iterative, 10-step framework promotes consistency and transparency in iSDM development, allows for changes in invasive drivers and filters, integrates mechanistic and correlative modeling techniques, balances the avoidance of type 1 and type 2 errors in predictions, encourages the linking of monitoring and management actions, and facilitates incremental improvements in models and management across space, time, and institutional boundaries. These improvements are useful for advancing coordinated invasive species modeling, management and monitoring from local scales to the regional, continental and global scales at which biological invasions occur and harm native ecosystems and economies, as well as for anticipating and responding to biological invasions under continuing global change.

Uncertainty, learning, and the optimal management of wildlife

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.

2001-01-01

Wildlife management is limited by uncontrolled and often unrecognized environmental variation, by limited capabilities to observe and control animal populations, and by a lack of understanding about the biological processes driving population dynamics. In this paper I describe a comprehensive framework for management that includes multiple models and likelihood values to account for structural uncertainty, along with stochastic factors to account for environmental variation, random sampling, and partial controllability. Adaptive optimization is developed in terms of the optimal control of incompletely understood populations, with the expected value of perfect information measuring the potential for improving control through learning. The framework for optimal adaptive control is generalized by including partial observability and non-adaptive, sample-based updating of model likelihoods. Passive adaptive management is derived as a special case of constrained adaptive optimization, representing a potentially efficient suboptimal alternative that nonetheless accounts for structural uncertainty.

Decision support frameworks and tools for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwartz, Mark W.; Cook, Carly N.; Pressey, Robert L.; Pullin, Andrew S.; Runge, Michael C.; Salafsky, Nick; Sutherland, William J.; Williamson, Matthew A.

2018-01-01

The practice of conservation occurs within complex socioecological systems fraught with challenges that require transparent, defensible, and often socially engaged project planning and management. Planning and decision support frameworks are designed to help conservation practitioners increase planning rigor, project accountability, stakeholder participation, transparency in decisions, and learning. We describe and contrast five common frameworks within the context of six fundamental questions (why, who, what, where, when, how) at each of three planning stages of adaptive management (project scoping, operational planning, learning). We demonstrate that decision support frameworks provide varied and extensive tools for conservation planning and management. However, using any framework in isolation risks diminishing potential benefits since no one framework covers the full spectrum of potential conservation planning and decision challenges. We describe two case studies that have effectively deployed tools from across conservation frameworks to improve conservation actions and outcomes. Attention to the critical questions for conservation project planning should allow practitioners to operate within any framework and adapt tools to suit their specific management context. We call on conservation researchers and practitioners to regularly use decision support tools as standard practice for framing both practice and research.

Rethinking Social Barriers to Effective Adaptive Management.

PubMed

West, Simon; Schultz, Lisen; Bekessy, Sarah

2016-09-01

Adaptive management is an approach to environmental management based on learning-by-doing, where complexity, uncertainty, and incomplete knowledge are acknowledged and management actions are treated as experiments. However, while adaptive management has received significant uptake in theory, it remains elusively difficult to enact in practice. Proponents have blamed social barriers and have called for social science contributions. We address this gap by adopting a qualitative approach to explore the development of an ecological monitoring program within an adaptive management framework in a public land management organization in Australia. We ask what practices are used to enact the monitoring program and how do they shape learning? We elicit a rich narrative through extensive interviews with a key individual, and analyze the narrative using thematic analysis. We discuss our results in relation to the concept of 'knowledge work' and Westley's (2002) framework for interpreting the strategies of adaptive managers-'managing through, in, out and up.' We find that enacting the program is conditioned by distinct and sometimes competing logics-scientific logics prioritizing experimentation and learning, public logics emphasizing accountability and legitimacy, and corporate logics demanding efficiency and effectiveness. In this context, implementing adaptive management entails practices of translation to negotiate tensions between objective and situated knowledge, external experts and organizational staff, and collegiate and hierarchical norms. Our contribution embraces the 'doing' of learning-by-doing and marks a shift from conceptualizing the social as an external barrier to adaptive management to be removed to an approach that situates adaptive management as social knowledge practice.

Principles for ecologically based invasive plant management

Treesearch

Jeremy J. James; Brenda S. Smith; Edward A. Vasquez; Roger L. Sheley

2010-01-01

Land managers have long identified a critical need for a practical and effective framework for designing restoration strategies, especially where invasive plants dominate. A holistic, ecologically based, invasive plant management (EBIPM) framework that integrates ecosystem health assessment, knowledge of ecological processes, and adaptive management into a successional...

Rethinking Social Barriers to Effective Adaptive Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

West, Simon; Schultz, Lisen; Bekessy, Sarah

2016-09-01

Adaptive management is an approach to environmental management based on learning-by-doing, where complexity, uncertainty, and incomplete knowledge are acknowledged and management actions are treated as experiments. However, while adaptive management has received significant uptake in theory, it remains elusively difficult to enact in practice. Proponents have blamed social barriers and have called for social science contributions. We address this gap by adopting a qualitative approach to explore the development of an ecological monitoring program within an adaptive management framework in a public land management organization in Australia. We ask what practices are used to enact the monitoring program and how do they shape learning? We elicit a rich narrative through extensive interviews with a key individual, and analyze the narrative using thematic analysis. We discuss our results in relation to the concept of `knowledge work' and Westley's 2002) framework for interpreting the strategies of adaptive managers—`managing through, in, out and up.' We find that enacting the program is conditioned by distinct and sometimes competing logics—scientific logics prioritizing experimentation and learning, public logics emphasizing accountability and legitimacy, and corporate logics demanding efficiency and effectiveness. In this context, implementing adaptive management entails practices of translation to negotiate tensions between objective and situated knowledge, external experts and organizational staff, and collegiate and hierarchical norms. Our contribution embraces the `doing' of learning-by-doing and marks a shift from conceptualizing the social as an external barrier to adaptive management to be removed to an approach that situates adaptive management as social knowledge practice.

The Development of the Croatian Competency Framework for Pharmacists.

PubMed

Mucalo, Iva; Hadžiabdić, Maja Ortner; Govorčinović, Tihana; Šarić, Martina; Bruno, Andreia; Bates, Ian

2016-10-25

Objective. To adjust and validate the Global Competency Framework (GbCF) to be relevant for Croatian community and hospital pharmacists. Methods. A descriptive study was conducted in three steps: translation, consensus development, and validation by an expert panel and public consultation. Panel members were representatives from community pharmacies, hospital pharmacies, regulatory and professional bodies, academia, and industry. Results. The adapted framework consists of 96 behavioral statements organized in four clusters: Pharmaceutical Public Health, Pharmaceutical Care, Organization and Management, and Personal and Professional Competencies. When mapped against the 100 statements listed in the GbCF, 27 matched, 39 were revised, 30 were introduced, and 24 were excluded from the original framework. Conclusions. The adaptation and validation proved that GbCF is adaptable to local needs, the Croatian Competency Framework that emerged from it being an example. Key amendments were made within Organization and Management and Pharmaceutical Care clusters, demonstrating that these issues can be country specific.

Incorporating a Socio-Ecological-Technological Systems (SETS) perspective into the adaptive management framework

EPA Science Inventory

Incorporating a social-ecological-technological systems (SETS) perspective to the adaptive management process requires that stakeholders and managers conceptualize restoration projects as part of coupled human and natural systems and assess underlying social drivers and accrued b...

Evaluating a multispecies adaptive management framework: Must uncertainty impede effective decision-making?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, David R.; McGowan, Conor P.; Daily, Jonathan P.; Nichols, James D.; Sweka, John A.; Lyons, James E.

2013-01-01

Application of adaptive management to complex natural resource systems requires careful evaluation to ensure that the process leads to improved decision-making. As part of that evaluation, adaptive policies can be compared with alternative nonadaptive management scenarios. Also, the value of reducing structural (ecological) uncertainty to achieving management objectives can be quantified.A multispecies adaptive management framework was recently adopted by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission for sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus, while maintaining adequate stopover habitat for migrating red knots Calidris canutus rufa, the focal shorebird species. The predictive model set encompassed the structural uncertainty in the relationships between horseshoe crab spawning, red knot weight gain and red knot vital rates. Stochastic dynamic programming was used to generate a state-dependent strategy for harvest decisions given that uncertainty. In this paper, we employed a management strategy evaluation approach to evaluate the performance of this adaptive management framework. Active adaptive management was used by including model weights as state variables in the optimization and reducing structural uncertainty by model weight updating.We found that the value of information for reducing structural uncertainty is expected to be low, because the uncertainty does not appear to impede effective management. Harvest policy responded to abundance levels of both species regardless of uncertainty in the specific relationship that generated those abundances. Thus, the expected horseshoe crab harvest and red knot abundance were similar when the population generating model was uncertain or known, and harvest policy was robust to structural uncertainty as specified.Synthesis and applications. The combination of management strategy evaluation with state-dependent strategies from stochastic dynamic programming was an informative approach to evaluate adaptive management performance and value of learning. Although natural resource decisions are characterized by uncertainty, not all uncertainty will cause decisions to be altered substantially, as we found in this case. It is important to incorporate uncertainty into the decision framing and evaluate the effect of reducing that uncertainty on achieving the desired outcomes

Studying citizen science through adaptive management and learning feedbacks as mechanisms for improving conservation.

PubMed

Jordan, Rebecca; Gray, Steven; Sorensen, Amanda; Newman, Greg; Mellor, David; Newman, Greg; Hmelo-Silver, Cindy; LaDeau, Shannon; Biehler, Dawn; Crall, Alycia

2016-06-01

Citizen science has generated a growing interest among scientists and community groups, and citizen science programs have been created specifically for conservation. We examined collaborative science, a highly interactive form of citizen science, which we developed within a theoretically informed framework. In this essay, we focused on 2 aspects of our framework: social learning and adaptive management. Social learning, in contrast to individual-based learning, stresses collaborative and generative insight making and is well-suited for adaptive management. Adaptive-management integrates feedback loops that are informed by what is learned and is guided by iterative decision making. Participants engaged in citizen science are able to add to what they are learning through primary data collection, which can result in the real-time information that is often necessary for conservation. Our work is particularly timely because research publications consistently report a lack of established frameworks and evaluation plans to address the extent of conservation outcomes in citizen science. To illustrate how our framework supports conservation through citizen science, we examined how 2 programs enacted our collaborative science framework. Further, we inspected preliminary conservation outcomes of our case-study programs. These programs, despite their recent implementation, are demonstrating promise with regard to positive conservation outcomes. To date, they are independently earning funds to support research, earning buy-in from local partners to engage in experimentation, and, in the absence of leading scientists, are collecting data to test ideas. We argue that this success is due to citizen scientists being organized around local issues and engaging in iterative, collaborative, and adaptive learning. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.

PubMed

Reed, M S; Podesta, G; Fazey, I; Geeson, N; Hessel, R; Hubacek, K; Letson, D; Nainggolan, D; Prell, C; Rickenbach, M G; Ritsema, C; Schwilch, G; Stringer, L C; Thomas, A D

2013-10-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options☆

PubMed Central

Reed, M.S.; Podesta, G.; Fazey, I.; Geeson, N.; Hessel, R.; Hubacek, K.; Letson, D.; Nainggolan, D.; Prell, C.; Rickenbach, M.G.; Ritsema, C.; Schwilch, G.; Stringer, L.C.; Thomas, A.D.

2013-01-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change. PMID:25844020

Climate change response framework overview: Chapter 1

Treesearch

Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Patricia Butler

2012-01-01

Managers currently face the immense challenge of anticipating the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems and then developing and applying management responses for adapting forests to future conditions. The Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF) is a highly collaborative approach to helping land managers understand the potential effects of climate change on...

INITIATE: An Intelligent Adaptive Alert Environment.

PubMed

Jafarpour, Borna; Abidi, Samina Raza; Ahmad, Ahmad Marwan; Abidi, Syed Sibte Raza

2015-01-01

Exposure to a large volume of alerts generated by medical Alert Generating Systems (AGS) such as drug-drug interaction softwares or clinical decision support systems over-whelms users and causes alert fatigue in them. Some of alert fatigue effects are ignoring crucial alerts and longer response times. A common approach to avoid alert fatigue is to devise mechanisms in AGS to stop them from generating alerts that are deemed irrelevant. In this paper, we present a novel framework called INITIATE: an INtellIgent adapTIve AlerT Environment to avoid alert fatigue by managing alerts generated by one or more AGS. We have identified and categories the lifecycle of different alerts and have developed alert management logic as per the alerts' lifecycle. Our framework incorporates an ontology that represents the alert management strategy and an alert management engine that executes this strategy. Our alert management framework offers the following features: (1) Adaptability based on users' feedback; (2) Personalization and aggregation of messages; and (3) Connection to Electronic Medical Records by implementing a HL7 Clinical Document Architecture parser.

Adaptive management for ecosystem services (j/a) | Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Management of natural resources for the production of ecosystem services, which are vital for human well-being, is necessary even when there is uncertainty regarding system response to management action. This uncertainty is the result of incomplete controllability, complex internal feedbacks, and non-linearity that often interferes with desired management outcomes, and insufficient understanding of nature and people. Adaptive management was developed to reduce such uncertainty. We present a framework for the application of adaptive management for ecosystem services that explicitly accounts for cross-scale tradeoffs in the production of ecosystem services. Our framework focuses on identifying key spatiotemporal scales (plot, patch, ecosystem, landscape, and region) that encompass dominant structures and processes in the system, and includes within- and cross-scale dynamics, ecosystem service tradeoffs, and management controllability within and across scales. Resilience theory recognizes that a limited set of ecological processes in a given system regulate ecosystem services, yet our understanding of these processes is poorly understood. If management actions erode or remove these processes, the system may shift into an alternative state unlikely to support the production of desired services. Adaptive management provides a process to assess the underlying within and cross-scale tradeoffs associated with production of ecosystem services while proceeding with manage

Passive and active adaptive management: Approaches and an example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.

2011-01-01

Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. Yet there remains considerable confusion about what adaptive management entails, and how to actually make resource decisions adaptively. A key but somewhat ambiguous distinction in adaptive management is between active and passive forms of adaptive decision making. The objective of this paper is to illustrate some approaches to active and passive adaptive management with a simple example involving the drawdown of water impoundments on a wildlife refuge. The approaches are illustrated for the drawdown example, and contrasted in terms of objectives, costs, and potential learning rates. Some key challenges to the actual practice of AM are discussed, and tradeoffs between implementation costs and long-term benefits are highlighted. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

An adaptive-management framework for optimal control of hiking near golden eagle nests in Denali National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Julien; Fackler, Paul L.; Nichols, James D.; Runge, Michael C.; McIntyre, Carol L.; Lubow, Bruce L.; McCluskie, Maggie C.; Schmutz, Joel A.

2011-01-01

Unintended effects of recreational activities in protected areas are of growing concern. We used an adaptive-management framework to develop guidelines for optimally managing hiking activities to maintain desired levels of territory occupancy and reproductive success of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in Denali National Park (Alaska, U.S.A.). The management decision was to restrict human access (hikers) to particular nesting territories to reduce disturbance. The management objective was to minimize restrictions on hikers while maintaining reproductive performance of eagles above some specified level. We based our decision analysis on predictive models of site occupancy of eagles developed using a combination of expert opinion and data collected from 93 eagle territories over 20 years. The best predictive model showed that restricting human access to eagle territories had little effect on occupancy dynamics. However, when considering important sources of uncertainty in the models, including environmental stochasticity, imperfect detection of hares on which eagles prey, and model uncertainty, restricting access of territories to hikers improved eagle reproduction substantially. An adaptive management framework such as ours may help reduce uncertainty of the effects of hiking activities on Golden Eagles

Efficient Use of Information in Adaptive Management with an Application to Managing Recreation near Golden Eagle Nesting Sites

PubMed Central

Fackler, Paul L.; Pacifici, Krishna; Martin, Julien; McIntyre, Carol

2014-01-01

It is generally the case that a significant degree of uncertainty exists concerning the behavior of ecological systems. Adaptive management has been developed to address such structural uncertainty, while recognizing that decisions must be made without full knowledge of how a system behaves. This paradigm attempts to use new information that develops during the course of management to learn how the system works. To date, however, adaptive management has used a very limited information set to characterize the learning that is possible. This paper uses an extension of the Partial Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) framework to expand the information set used to update belief in competing models. This feature can potentially increase the speed of learning through adaptive management, and lead to better management in the future. We apply this framework to a case study wherein interest lies in managing recreational restrictions around golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) nesting sites. The ultimate management objective is to maintain an abundant eagle population in Denali National Park while minimizing the regulatory burden on park visitors. In order to capture this objective, we developed a utility function that trades off expected breeding success with hiker access. Our work is relevant to the management of human activities in protected areas, but more generally demonstrates some of the benefits of POMDP in the context of adaptive management. PMID:25098955

Adaptive management for subsurface pressure and plume control in application to geological CO2 storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Nicolas, A.; Cihan, A.; Birkholzer, J. T.; Petrusak, R.; Zhou, Q.; Riestenberg, D. E.; Trautz, R. C.; Godec, M.

2016-12-01

Industrial-scale injection of CO2 into the subsurface can cause reservoir pressure increases that must be properly controlled to prevent any potential environmental impact. Excessive pressure buildup in reservoir may result in ground water contamination stemming from leakage through conductive pathways, such as improperly plugged abandoned wells or distant faults, and the potential for fault reactivation and possibly seal breaching. Brine extraction is a viable approach for managing formation pressure, effective stress, and plume movement during industrial-scale CO2 injection projects. The main objectives of this study are to investigate suitable different pressure management strategies involving active brine extraction and passive pressure relief wells. Adaptive optimized management of CO2 storage projects utilizes the advanced automated optimization algorithms and suitable process models. The adaptive management integrates monitoring, forward modeling, inversion modeling and optimization through an iterative process. In this study, we employ an adaptive framework to understand primarily the effects of initial site characterization and frequency of the model update (calibration) and optimization calculations for controlling extraction rates based on the monitoring data on the accuracy and the success of the management without violating pressure buildup constraints in the subsurface reservoir system. We will present results of applying the adaptive framework to test appropriateness of different management strategies for a realistic field injection project.

An Open IMS-Based User Modelling Approach for Developing Adaptive Learning Management Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boticario, Jesus G.; Santos, Olga C.

2007-01-01

Adaptive LMS have not yet reached the eLearning marketplace due to methodological, technological and management open issues. At aDeNu group, we have been working on two key challenges for the last five years in related research projects. Firstly, develop the general framework and a running architecture to support the adaptive life cycle (i.e.,…

Transformative governance of urban social-ecological systems

EPA Science Inventory

A central aspect of adaptive governance is a learning process that can help communities achieve environmental objectives. Adaptive governance is a framework for managing social-ecological systems, and is the precursor to transformative governance. Adaptive governance accounts for...

Adaptive management for ecosystem services.

PubMed

Birgé, Hannah E; Allen, Craig R; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Pope, Kevin L

2016-12-01

Management of natural resources for the production of ecosystem services, which are vital for human well-being, is necessary even when there is uncertainty regarding system response to management action. This uncertainty is the result of incomplete controllability, complex internal feedbacks, and non-linearity that often interferes with desired management outcomes, and insufficient understanding of nature and people. Adaptive management was developed to reduce such uncertainty. We present a framework for the application of adaptive management for ecosystem services that explicitly accounts for cross-scale tradeoffs in the production of ecosystem services. Our framework focuses on identifying key spatiotemporal scales (plot, patch, ecosystem, landscape, and region) that encompass dominant structures and processes in the system, and includes within- and cross-scale dynamics, ecosystem service tradeoffs, and management controllability within and across scales. Resilience theory recognizes that a limited set of ecological processes in a given system regulate ecosystem services, yet our understanding of these processes is poorly understood. If management actions erode or remove these processes, the system may shift into an alternative state unlikely to support the production of desired services. Adaptive management provides a process to assess the underlying within and cross-scale tradeoffs associated with production of ecosystem services while proceeding with management designed to meet the demands of a growing human population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Behavioral Framework for Managing Massive Airline Flight Disruptions through Crisis Management, Organization Development, and Organization Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsen, Tulinda Deegan

In this study the researcher provides a behavioral framework for managing massive airline flight disruptions (MAFD) in the United States. Under conditions of MAFD, multiple flights are disrupted throughout the airline's route network, customer service is negatively affected, additional costs are created for airlines, and governments intervene. This study is different from other studies relating to MAFD that have focused on the operational, technical, economic, financial, and customer service impacts. The researcher argues that airlines could improve the management of events that led to MAFD by applying the principles of crisis management where the entire organization is mobilized, rather than one department, adapting organization development (OD) interventions to implement change and organization learning (OL) processes to create culture of innovation, resulting in sustainable improvement in customer service, cost reductions, and mitigation of government intervention. At the intersection of crisis management, OD, and OL, the researcher has developed a new conceptual framework that enhances the resiliency of individuals and organizations in responding to unexpected-yet-recurring crises (e.g., MAFD) that impact operations. The researcher has adapted and augmented Lalonde's framework for managing crises through OD interventions by including OL processes. The OD interventions, coupled with OL, provide a framework for airline leaders to manage more effectively events that result in MAFD with the goal of improving passenger satisfaction, reducing costs, and preventing further government intervention. Further research is warranted to apply this conceptual framework to unexpected-yet-recurring crises that affect operations in other industries.

Compromise-based Robust Prioritization of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Watershed Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Chung, E. S.

2014-12-01

This study suggests a robust prioritization framework for climate change adaptation strategies under multiple climate change scenarios with a case study of selecting sites for reusing treated wastewater (TWW) in a Korean urban watershed. The framework utilizes various multi-criteria decision making techniques, including the VIKOR method and the Shannon entropy-based weights. In this case study, the sustainability of TWW use is quantified with indicator-based approaches with the DPSIR framework, which considers both hydro-environmental and socio-economic aspects of the watershed management. Under the various climate change scenarios, the hydro-environmental responses to reusing TWW in potential alternative sub-watersheds are determined using the Hydrologic Simulation Program in Fortran (HSPF). The socio-economic indicators are obtained from the statistical databases. Sustainability scores for multiple scenarios are estimated individually and then integrated with the proposed approach. At last, the suggested framework allows us to prioritize adaptation strategies in a robust manner with varying levels of compromise between utility-based and regret-based strategies.

Adapting cognitive behavioral therapy for psychosis for case managers: increasing access to services in a community mental health agency.

PubMed

Montesano, Vicki L; Sivec, Harry J; Munetz, Mark R; Pelton, Jeremy R; Turkington, Douglas

2014-03-01

The purpose of this article is twofold: (a) to describe the adaptation of an evidence-based practice and, (b) using a dissemination framework, to describe the process of implementing the practice at a community mental health agency. The authors describe the training concept and dissemination framework of implementing an emerging practice: high-yield cognitive behavioral techniques for psychosis, which is rooted in cognitive behavioral therapy. Thirteen case managers who represented teams from across the agency delivered the adapted practice at a community mental health agency. Implementation required buy in from all stakeholders, communication across disciplines, persistence, and flexibility. It appears that the use of a dissemination framework that is grounded in the literature, yet flexible, eases the process of implementing an adapted practice. Further research focusing on the effectiveness of this approach, along with the impact of implementing a full spectrum of cognitive behavioral therapy services for individuals with persistent psychotic symptoms, based on cognitive behavioral therapy principles, is indicated.

Using Bayesian Population Viability Analysis to Define Relevant Conservation Objectives.

PubMed

Green, Adam W; Bailey, Larissa L

2015-01-01

Adaptive management provides a useful framework for managing natural resources in the face of uncertainty. An important component of adaptive management is identifying clear, measurable conservation objectives that reflect the desired outcomes of stakeholders. A common objective is to have a sustainable population, or metapopulation, but it can be difficult to quantify a threshold above which such a population is likely to persist. We performed a Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis (BMPVA) using a dynamic occupancy model to quantify the characteristics of two wood frog (Lithobates sylvatica) metapopulations resulting in sustainable populations, and we demonstrate how the results could be used to define meaningful objectives that serve as the basis of adaptive management. We explored scenarios involving metapopulations with different numbers of patches (pools) using estimates of breeding occurrence and successful metamorphosis from two study areas to estimate the probability of quasi-extinction and calculate the proportion of vernal pools producing metamorphs. Our results suggest that ≥50 pools are required to ensure long-term persistence with approximately 16% of pools producing metamorphs in stable metapopulations. We demonstrate one way to incorporate the BMPVA results into a utility function that balances the trade-offs between ecological and financial objectives, which can be used in an adaptive management framework to make optimal, transparent decisions. Our approach provides a framework for using a standard method (i.e., PVA) and available information to inform a formal decision process to determine optimal and timely management policies.

Using the collaborative intervention planning framework to adapt a health-care manager intervention to a new population and provider group to improve the health of people with serious mental illness.

PubMed

Cabassa, Leopoldo J; Gomes, Arminda P; Meyreles, Quisqueya; Capitelli, Lucia; Younge, Richard; Dragatsi, Dianna; Alvarez, Juana; Manrique, Yamira; Lewis-Fernández, Roberto

2014-11-30

Health-care manager interventions improve the physical health of people with serious mental illness (SMI) and could be widely implemented in public mental health clinics. Local adaptations and customization may be needed to increase the reach of these interventions in the public mental health system and across different racial and ethnic communities. In this study, we describe how we used the collaborative intervention planning framework to customize an existing health-care manager intervention to a new patient population (Hispanics with SMI) and provider group (social workers) to increase its fit with our local community. The study was conducted in partnership with a public mental health clinic that serves predominantly Hispanic clients. A community advisory board (CAB) composed of researchers and potential implementers (e.g., social workers, primary care physicians) used the collaborative intervention planning framework, an approach that combines community-based participatory research principles and intervention mapping (IM) procedures, to inform intervention adaptations. The adaptation process included four steps: fostering collaborations between CAB members; understanding the needs of the local population through a mixed-methods needs assessment, literature reviews, and group discussions; reviewing intervention objectives to identify targets for adaptation; and developing the adapted intervention. The application of this approach enabled the CAB to identify a series of cultural and provider level-adaptations without compromising the core elements of the original health-care manager intervention. Reducing health disparities in people with SMI requires community engagement, particularly when preparing existing interventions to be used with new communities, provider groups, and practice settings. Our study illustrates one approach that can be used to involve community stakeholders in the intervention adaptation process from the very beginning to enhance the transportability of a health-care manager intervention in order to improve the health of people with SMI.

Monitoring and evaluating citizen-agency interactions: a framework developed for adaptive management.

Treesearch

Bruce Shindler; Kristin Aldred Cheek; George H. Stankey

1999-01-01

As the Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management turn toward ecosystem and adaptive models of forest stewardship, they are being called on to develop meaningful and lasting relations with citizens. These new management styles require not only improved strategies for public involvement but also methods to examine the interactions between citizens and agencies in...

Examining household asthma management behavior through a microeconomic framework.

PubMed

Magzamen, Sheryl; Brandt, Sylvia J; Tager, Ira B

2014-12-01

National guidelines on the effective management of pediatric asthma have been promoted for over 20 years, yet asthma-related morbidity among low-income children remains disproportionately high. To date, household and clinical interventions designed to remediate these differences have been informed largely by a health behavior framework. However, these programs have not resulted in consistent sustained improvements in targeted populations. The continued funding and implementation of programs based on the health behavior framework leads us to question if traditional behavioral models are sufficient to understand and promote adaptation of positive health management behaviors. We introduce the application of the microeconomic framework to investigate potential mechanisms that can lead to positive management behaviors to improve asthma-related morbidity. We provide examples from the literature on health production, preferences, trade-offs and time horizons to illustrate how economic constructs can potentially add to understanding of disease management. The economic framework, which can be empirically observed, tested, and quantified, can explicate the engagement in household-level activities that would affect health and well-being. The inclusion of a microeconomic perspective in intervention research may lead to identification of mechanisms that lead to household decisions with regard to asthma management strategies and behavior. The inclusion of the microeconomic framework to understand the production of health may provide a novel theoretical framework to investigate the underlying causal behavioral mechanisms related to asthma management and control. Adaptation of an economic perspective may provide new insight into the design and implementation of interventions to improve asthma-related morbidity in susceptible populations. © 2014 Society for Public Health Education.

Natural resource manager perceptions of agency performance on climate change.

PubMed

Lemieux, Christopher J; Thompson, Jessica L; Dawson, Jackie; Schuster, Rudy M

2013-01-15

An important precursor to the adoption of climate change adaptation strategies is to understand the perceived capacity to implement and operationalize such strategies. Utilizing an importance-performance analysis (IPA) evaluation framework, this article presents a comparative case study of federal and state land and natural resource manager perceptions of agency performance on factors influencing adaptive capacity in two U.S. regions (northern Colorado and southwestern South Dakota). Results revealed several important findings with substantial management implications. First, none of the managers ranked the adaptive capacity factors as a low priority. Second, managers held the perception that their agencies were performing either neutrally or poorly on most factors influencing adaptive capacity. Third, gap analysis revealed that significant improvements are required to facilitate optimal agency functioning when dealing with climate change-related management issues. Overall, results suggest that a host of institutional and policy-oriented (e.g., lack of clear mandate to adapt to climate change), financial and human resource (e.g., inadequate staff and financial resources), informational (e.g., inadequate research and monitoring programs) and contextual barriers (e.g., sufficient regional networks to mitigate potential transboundary impacts) currently challenge the efficient and effective integration of climate change into decision-making and management within agencies working in these regions. The IPA framework proved to be an effective tool to help managers identify and understand agency strengths, areas of concern, redundancies, and areas that warrant the use of limited funds and/or resource re-allocation in order to enhance adaptive capacity and maximize management effectiveness with respect to climate change. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecosystem Based Management in Transition: From Ocean Policy to Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saumweber, W. J.; Goldman, E.

2016-02-01

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has been proposed as a means to improve resource management and stewardship for more than two decades. Over this history, its exact goals and approaches have evolved in concert with advances in science and policy, including a greater understanding of ecosystem function, valuation, and thresholds for change, along with direct reference to EBM principles in statute, regulation, and other Executive Actions. Most recently, and explicitly, the Administration's National Ocean Policy (NOP) called for the development of a Federal EBM framework that would outline principles and guidelines for implementing EBM under existing authorities. This cross-agency framework has yet to be developed, but, the NOP, and related Administration initiatives, have resulted in the practical application of EBM principles in several issue-specific policy initiatives ranging from fisheries and marine protected area management to coastal adaptation and water resource infrastructure investment. In each case, the application of EBM principles uses apparently unique policy mechanisms (e.g. marine planning, ecosystem services assessment, adaptive management, dynamic ocean management, etc.). Despite differences in terminology and policy context, each of these policy initiatives is linked at its core to concepts of integrated and adaptive management that consider broad ecosystem function and services. This practical history of EBM implementation speaks to both the challenges and opportunities in broad incorporation of EBM across diverse policy initiatives and frameworks. We suggest that the continued growth of EBM as a practical policy concept will require a move away from broad frameworks, and towards the identification of specific resource management issues and accompanying policy levers with which to address those issues. In order to promote this progression, Federal policy should recognize and articulate the diverse set of policy mechanisms encompassed under the rubric of EBM and seek to require similar approaches across the spectra of resource management issues.

Ecosystem Based Management in Transition: From Ocean Policy to Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saumweber, W. J.; Goldman, E.

2016-12-01

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has been proposed as a means to improve resource management and stewardship for more than two decades. Over this history, its exact goals and approaches have evolved in concert with advances in science and policy, including a greater understanding of ecosystem function, valuation, and thresholds for change, along with direct reference to EBM principles in statute, regulation, and other Executive Actions. Most recently, and explicitly, the Administration's National Ocean Policy (NOP) called for the development of a Federal EBM framework that would outline principles and guidelines for implementing EBM under existing authorities. This cross-agency framework has yet to be developed, but, the NOP, and related Administration initiatives, have resulted in the practical application of EBM principles in several issue-specific policy initiatives ranging from fisheries and marine protected area management to coastal adaptation and water resource infrastructure investment. In each case, the application of EBM principles uses apparently unique policy mechanisms (e.g. marine planning, ecosystem services assessment, adaptive management, dynamic ocean management, etc.). Despite differences in terminology and policy context, each of these policy initiatives is linked at its core to concepts of integrated and adaptive management that consider broad ecosystem function and services. This practical history of EBM implementation speaks to both the challenges and opportunities in broad incorporation of EBM across diverse policy initiatives and frameworks. We suggest that the continued growth of EBM as a practical policy concept will require a move away from broad frameworks, and towards the identification of specific resource management issues and accompanying policy levers with which to address those issues. In order to promote this progression, Federal policy should recognize and articulate the diverse set of policy mechanisms encompassed under the rubric of EBM and seek to require similar approaches across the spectra of resource management issues.

The Genome-based Knowledge Management in Cycles model: a complex adaptive systems framework for implementation of genomic applications.

PubMed

Arar, Nedal; Knight, Sara J; Modell, Stephen M; Issa, Amalia M

2011-03-01

The main mission of the Genomic Applications in Practice and Prevention Network™ is to advance collaborative efforts involving partners from across the public health sector to realize the promise of genomics in healthcare and disease prevention. We introduce a new framework that supports the Genomic Applications in Practice and Prevention Network mission and leverages the characteristics of the complex adaptive systems approach. We call this framework the Genome-based Knowledge Management in Cycles model (G-KNOMIC). G-KNOMIC proposes that the collaborative work of multidisciplinary teams utilizing genome-based applications will enhance translating evidence-based genomic findings by creating ongoing knowledge management cycles. Each cycle consists of knowledge synthesis, knowledge evaluation, knowledge implementation and knowledge utilization. Our framework acknowledges that all the elements in the knowledge translation process are interconnected and continuously changing. It also recognizes the importance of feedback loops, and the ability of teams to self-organize within a dynamic system. We demonstrate how this framework can be used to improve the adoption of genomic technologies into practice using two case studies of genomic uptake.

A conceptual framework for addressing complexity and unfolding transition dynamics when developing sustainable adaptation strategies in urban water management.

PubMed

Fratini, C F; Elle, M; Jensen, M B; Mikkelsen, P S

2012-01-01

To achieve a successful and sustainable adaptation to climate change we need to transform the way we think about change. Much water management research has focused on technical innovation with a range of new solutions developed to achieve a 'more sustainable and integrated urban water management cycle'. But Danish municipalities and utility companies are struggling to bring such solutions into practice. 'Green infrastructure', for example, requires the consideration of a larger range of aspects related to the urban context than the traditional urban water system optimization. There is the need for standardized methods and guidelines to organize transdisciplinary processes where different types of knowledge and perspectives are taken into account. On the basis of the macro-meso-micro pattern inspired by complexity science and transition theory, we developed a conceptual framework to organize processes addressing the complexity characterizing urban water management in the context of climate change. In this paper the framework is used to organize a research process aiming at understanding and unfolding urban dynamics for sustainable transition. The final goal is to enable local authorities and utilities to create the basis for managing and catalysing the technical and organizational innovation necessary for a sustainable transition towards climate change adaptation in urban areas.

Ecological Principles for Invasive Plant Management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Invasive annual grasses continue to advance at an alarming rate despite efforts of control by land managers. Ecologically-based invasive plant management (EBIPM) is a holistic framework that integrates ecosystem health assessment, knowledge of ecological processes and adaptive management into a succ...

Adapting the coping in deliberation (CODE) framework: a multi-method approach in the context of familial ovarian cancer risk management.

PubMed

Witt, Jana; Elwyn, Glyn; Wood, Fiona; Rogers, Mark T; Menon, Usha; Brain, Kate

2014-11-01

To test whether the coping in deliberation (CODE) framework can be adapted to a specific preference-sensitive medical decision: risk-reducing bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) in women at increased risk of ovarian cancer. We performed a systematic literature search to identify issues important to women during deliberations about RRSO. Three focus groups with patients (most were pre-menopausal and untested for genetic mutations) and 11 interviews with health professionals were conducted to determine which issues mattered in the UK context. Data were used to adapt the generic CODE framework. The literature search yielded 49 relevant studies, which highlighted various issues and coping options important during deliberations, including mutation status, risks of surgery, family obligations, physician recommendation, peer support and reliable information sources. Consultations with UK stakeholders confirmed most of these factors as pertinent influences on deliberations. Questions in the generic framework were adapted to reflect the issues and coping options identified. The generic CODE framework was readily adapted to a specific preference-sensitive medical decision, showing that deliberations and coping are linked during deliberations about RRSO. Adapted versions of the CODE framework may be used to develop tailored decision support methods and materials in order to improve patient-centred care. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The "invisible caregiver": multicaregiving among diabetic African-American grandmothers.

PubMed

Carthron, Dana L; Bailey, Donald E; Anderson, Ruth A

2014-01-01

To explore the multicaregiving roles African-American grandmothers assume while self-managing their diabetes. This longitudinal, qualitative pilot study explored the challenges of self-managing diabetes among six African-American caregiving grandmothers. Data were collected at 5 times points across 18 months. Content analysis, guided by the Adaptive Leadership framework, was conducted using data matrices to facilitate within-case and cross-case analyses. Although participants initially stated they cared only for grandchildren, all had additional caregiving responsibilities. Four themes emerged which illustrated how African-American caregiving grandmothers put the care of dependent children, extended family and community before themselves. Using the Adaptive Leadership framework, technical and adaptive challenges arising from multicaregiving were described as barriers to diabetes self-management. When assisting these women to self-manage their diabetes, clinicians must assess challenges arising from multicaregiving. This might require developing collaborative work relationships with the client to develop meaningful and attainable goals. Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Managing urban water systems with significant adaptation deficits - a unified framework for secondary cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathirana, A.; Radhakrishnan, M.; Zevenbergen, C.; Quan, N. H.

2016-12-01

The need to address the shortcomings of urban systems - adaptation deficit - and shortcomings in response to climate change - `adaptation gap' - are both major challenges in maintaining the livability and sustainability of cities. However, the adaptation actions defined in terms of type I (addressing adaptation deficits) and type II (addressing adaptation gaps), often compete and conflict each other in the secondary cities of the global south. Extending the concept of the environmental Kuznets curve, this paper argues that a unified framework that calls for synergistic action on type I and type II adaptation is essential in order for these cities to maintain their livability, sustainability and resilience facing extreme rates of urbanization and rapid onset of climate change. The proposed framework has been demonstrated in Can Tho, Vietnam, where there are significant adaptation deficits due to rapid urbanisation and adaptation gaps due to climate change and socio-economic changes. The analysis in Can Tho reveals the lack of integration between type I and type II measures that could be overcome by closer integration between various stakeholders in terms of planning, prioritising and implementing the adaptation measures.

Reducing uncertainty about objective functions in adaptive management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.

2012-01-01

This paper extends the uncertainty framework of adaptive management to include uncertainty about the objectives to be used in guiding decisions. Adaptive decision making typically assumes explicit and agreed-upon objectives for management, but allows for uncertainty as to the structure of the decision process that generates change through time. Yet it is not unusual for there to be uncertainty (or disagreement) about objectives, with different stakeholders expressing different views not only about resource responses to management but also about the appropriate management objectives. In this paper I extend the treatment of uncertainty in adaptive management, and describe a stochastic structure for the joint occurrence of uncertainty about objectives as well as models, and show how adaptive decision making and the assessment of post-decision monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties of both kinds. Different degrees of association between model and objective uncertainty lead to different patterns of learning about objectives. ?? 2011.

Estuary ecosystem restoration: implementing and institutionalizing adaptive management: Institutionalizing adaptive management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ebberts, Blaine D.; Zelinsky, Ben D.; Karnezis, Jason P.

We successfully implemented and institutionalized an adaptive management (AM) process for the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program, which is a large-scale restoration program focused on improving ecosystem conditions in the 234-km lower Columbia River and estuary. For our purpose, “institutionalized” means the AM process and restoration program are embedded in the work flow of the implementing agencies and affected parties. While plans outlining frameworks, processes, or approaches to AM of ecosystem restoration programs are commonplace, establishment for the long term is not. This paper presents the basic AM framework and explains how AM was implemented and institutionalized. Starting with amore » common goal, we pursued included a well-understood governance and decision-making structure, routine coordination and communication activities, data and information sharing, commitment from partners and upper agency management to the AM process, and meaningful cooperation among program managers and partners. The overall approach and steps to implement and institutionalize AM for ecosystem restoration explained here are applicable to situations where it has been less than successful or, as in our case, the restoration program is just getting started.« less

Ecological mechanisms underpinning climate adaptation services.

PubMed

Lavorel, Sandra; Colloff, Matthew J; McIntyre, Sue; Doherty, Michael D; Murphy, Helen T; Metcalfe, Daniel J; Dunlop, Michael; Williams, Richard J; Wise, Russell M; Williams, Kristen J

2015-01-01

Ecosystem services are typically valued for their immediate material or cultural benefits to human wellbeing, supported by regulating and supporting services. Under climate change, with more frequent stresses and novel shocks, 'climate adaptation services', are defined as the benefits to people from increased social ability to respond to change, provided by the capability of ecosystems to moderate and adapt to climate change and variability. They broaden the ecosystem services framework to assist decision makers in planning for an uncertain future with new choices and options. We present a generic framework for operationalising the adaptation services concept. Four steps guide the identification of intrinsic ecological mechanisms that facilitate the maintenance and emergence of ecosystem services during periods of change, and so materialise as adaptation services. We applied this framework for four contrasted Australian ecosystems. Comparative analyses enabled by the operational framework suggest that adaptation services that emerge during trajectories of ecological change are supported by common mechanisms: vegetation structural diversity, the role of keystone species or functional groups, response diversity and landscape connectivity, which underpin the persistence of function and the reassembly of ecological communities under severe climate change and variability. Such understanding should guide ecosystem management towards adaptation planning. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An Agent-Based Optimization Framework for Engineered Complex Adaptive Systems with Application to Demand Response in Electricity Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haghnevis, Moeed

The main objective of this research is to develop an integrated method to study emergent behavior and consequences of evolution and adaptation in engineered complex adaptive systems (ECASs). A multi-layer conceptual framework and modeling approach including behavioral and structural aspects is provided to describe the structure of a class of engineered complex systems and predict their future adaptive patterns. The approach allows the examination of complexity in the structure and the behavior of components as a result of their connections and in relation to their environment. This research describes and uses the major differences of natural complex adaptive systems (CASs) with artificial/engineered CASs to build a framework and platform for ECAS. While this framework focuses on the critical factors of an engineered system, it also enables one to synthetically employ engineering and mathematical models to analyze and measure complexity in such systems. In this way concepts of complex systems science are adapted to management science and system of systems engineering. In particular an integrated consumer-based optimization and agent-based modeling (ABM) platform is presented that enables managers to predict and partially control patterns of behaviors in ECASs. Demonstrated on the U.S. electricity markets, ABM is integrated with normative and subjective decision behavior recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The approach integrates social networks, social science, complexity theory, and diffusion theory. Furthermore, it has unique and significant contribution in exploring and representing concrete managerial insights for ECASs and offering new optimized actions and modeling paradigms in agent-based simulation.

Risk Management in Australian Science Education: A Model for Practice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forlin, Peter

1995-01-01

Provides a framework that incorporates the diverse elements of risk management in science education into a systematic process and is adaptable to changing circumstances. Appendix contains risk management checklist for management, laboratory and storage, extreme biological and chemical hazards, protective equipment, waste disposal, electrical…

Towards a Cloud Based Smart Traffic Management Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahimi, M. M.; Hakimpour, F.

2017-09-01

Traffic big data has brought many opportunities for traffic management applications. However several challenges like heterogeneity, storage, management, processing and analysis of traffic big data may hinder their efficient and real-time applications. All these challenges call for well-adapted distributed framework for smart traffic management that can efficiently handle big traffic data integration, indexing, query processing, mining and analysis. In this paper, we present a novel, distributed, scalable and efficient framework for traffic management applications. The proposed cloud computing based framework can answer technical challenges for efficient and real-time storage, management, process and analyse of traffic big data. For evaluation of the framework, we have used OpenStreetMap (OSM) real trajectories and road network on a distributed environment. Our evaluation results indicate that speed of data importing to this framework exceeds 8000 records per second when the size of datasets is near to 5 million. We also evaluate performance of data retrieval in our proposed framework. The data retrieval speed exceeds 15000 records per second when the size of datasets is near to 5 million. We have also evaluated scalability and performance of our proposed framework using parallelisation of a critical pre-analysis in transportation applications. The results show that proposed framework achieves considerable performance and efficiency in traffic management applications.

Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change

PubMed Central

Anthony, Kenneth RN; Marshall, Paul A; Abdulla, Ameer; Beeden, Roger; Bergh, Chris; Black, Ryan; Eakin, C Mark; Game, Edward T; Gooch, Margaret; Graham, Nicholas AJ; Green, Alison; Heron, Scott F; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Knowland, Cheryl; Mangubhai, Sangeeta; Marshall, Nadine; Maynard, Jeffrey A; McGinnity, Peter; McLeod, Elizabeth; Mumby, Peter J; Nyström, Magnus; Obura, David; Oliver, Jamie; Possingham, Hugh P; Pressey, Robert L; Rowlands, Gwilym P; Tamelander, Jerker; Wachenfeld, David; Wear, Stephanie

2015-01-01

Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local-scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio-economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience-Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press-type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse-type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo-Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on-the-ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on actions that support resilience at finer spatial scales, and that are tightly linked to ecosystem goods and services. PMID:25196132

Evolving institutional and policy frameworks to support adaptation strategies

Treesearch

Dave Cleaves

2014-01-01

Given the consequences and opportunities of the Anthropocene, what is our underlying theory or vision of successful adaptation? This essay discusses the building blocks of this theory, and how will we translate this theory into guiding principles for management and policy.

Adaptive Management of Computing and Network Resources for Spacecraft Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pfarr, Barbara; Welch, Lonnie R.; Detter, Ryan; Tjaden, Brett; Huh, Eui-Nam; Szczur, Martha R. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

It is likely that NASA's future spacecraft systems will consist of distributed processes which will handle dynamically varying workloads in response to perceived scientific events, the spacecraft environment, spacecraft anomalies and user commands. Since all situations and possible uses of sensors cannot be anticipated during pre-deployment phases, an approach for dynamically adapting the allocation of distributed computational and communication resources is needed. To address this, we are evolving the DeSiDeRaTa adaptive resource management approach to enable reconfigurable ground and space information systems. The DeSiDeRaTa approach embodies a set of middleware mechanisms for adapting resource allocations, and a framework for reasoning about the real-time performance of distributed application systems. The framework and middleware will be extended to accommodate (1) the dynamic aspects of intra-constellation network topologies, and (2) the complete real-time path from the instrument to the user. We are developing a ground-based testbed that will enable NASA to perform early evaluation of adaptive resource management techniques without the expense of first deploying them in space. The benefits of the proposed effort are numerous, including the ability to use sensors in new ways not anticipated at design time; the production of information technology that ties the sensor web together; the accommodation of greater numbers of missions with fewer resources; and the opportunity to leverage the DeSiDeRaTa project's expertise, infrastructure and models for adaptive resource management for distributed real-time systems.

3D Viewer Platform of Cloud Clustering Management System: Google Map 3D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Sung-Ja; Lee, Gang-Soo

The new management system of framework for cloud envrionemnt is needed by the platfrom of convergence according to computing environments of changes. A ISV and small business model is hard to adapt management system of platform which is offered from super business. This article suggest the clustering management system of cloud computing envirionments for ISV and a man of enterprise in small business model. It applies the 3D viewer adapt from map3D & earth of google. It is called 3DV_CCMS as expand the CCMS[1].

An adaptive approach to invasive plant management on U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service-owned native prairies in the Prairie Pothole Region: decision support under uncertainity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gannon, Jill J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Flanders-Wanner, Bridgette

2011-01-01

Much of the native prairie managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is extensively invaded by the introduced cool-season grasses smooth brome (Bromus inermis) and Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis). The central challenge to managers is selecting appropriate management actions in the face of biological and environmental uncertainties. We describe the technical components of a USGS management project, and explain how the components integrate and inform each other, how data feedback from individual cooperators serves to reduce uncertainty across the whole region, and how a successful adaptive management project is coordinated and maintained on a large scale. In partnership with the Service, the U.S. Geological Survey is developing an adaptive decision support framework to assist managers in selecting management actions under uncertainty and maximizing learning from management outcomes. The framework is built around practical constraints faced by refuge managers and includes identification of the management objective and strategies, analysis of uncertainty and construction of competing decision models, monitoring, and mechanisms for model feedback and decision selection. Nineteen Service field stations, spanning four states of the PPR, are participating in the project. They share a common management objective, available management strategies, and biological uncertainties. While the scope is broad, the project interfaces with individual land managers who provide refuge-specific information and receive updated decision guidance that incorporates understanding gained from the collective experience of all cooperators.

Complex adaptive chronic care.

PubMed

Martin, Carmel; Sturmberg, Joachim

2009-06-01

The Chronic Care Model (CCM) is widely taken up as the universal operational framework for redesigning health systems to address the increasing chronic disease burden of an ageing population. Chronic care encompasses health promotion, prevention, self management, disease control, treatment and palliation to address 'chronicity' of long journeys through disease, illness and care in the varying contexts of complex health systems. Yet at an operational level, CCM activities are predominantly based on an evidence-base of discreet chronic disease interventions in specific settings; and their demonstrable impact is limited to processes of select disease management such as diabetes in specific disease management programs. This paper proposes a framework that makes sense of the nature of chronicity and its multiple dimensions beyond disease and argues for a set of building blocks and leverage points that should constitute the starting points for 'redesign'? Complex Adaptive Chronic Care is proposed as an idea for an explanatory and implementation framework for addressing chronicity in existing and future chronic care models. Chronicity is overtly conceptualized to encompass the phenomena of an individual journey, with simple and complicated, complex and chaotic phases, through long term asymptomatic disease to bodily dysfunction and illness, located in family and communities. Chronicity encompasses trajectories of self-care and health care, as health, illness and disease co-exist and co-evolve in the setting of primary care, local care networks and at times institutions. A systems approach to individuals in their multi-layered networks making sense of and optimizing experiences of their chronic illness would build on core values and agency around a local vision of health, empowerment of individuals and adaptive leadership, and it responds in line with the local values inherent in the community's disease-based knowledge and the local service's history and dynamics. Complex Adaptive Chronic Care exceeds the current notions of disease management as an endpoint. Primary care team members are system adaptors in partnership with individuals constructing their care and system leadership in response to chronic illness, and enable healthy resilience as well as personal healing and support. Outcomes of complex adaptive chronic care are the emergence of health in individuals and communities through adaptability, self-organization and empowerment. Chronic care reform from within a complex adaptive system framework is bottom up and emergent and stands in stark contrast to (but has to co-exist with) the prevailing protocol based disease care rewarding selective surrogate indicators of disease control. Frameworks such as the Chronic Care Model provide guidance, but do not replace individual experience, local adaptive leadership and responsiveness. The awareness of complexity means opening up problems to a different reality demanding different set of questions and approaches to answer them.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting agricultural management for climate change in developing countries: providing the basis for action.

PubMed

Ogle, Stephen M; Olander, Lydia; Wollenberg, Lini; Rosenstock, Todd; Tubiello, Francesco; Paustian, Keith; Buendia, Leandro; Nihart, Alison; Smith, Pete

2014-01-01

Agriculture in developing countries has attracted increasing attention in international negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change for both adaptation to climate change and greenhouse gas mitigation. However, there is limited understanding about potential complementarity between management practices that promote adaptation and mitigation, and limited basis to account for greenhouse gas emission reductions in this sector. The good news is that the global research community could provide the support needed to address these issues through further research linking adaptation and mitigation. In addition, a small shift in strategy by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and ongoing assistance from agricultural organizations could produce a framework to move the research and development from concept to reality. In turn, significant progress is possible in the near term providing the basis for UNFCCC negotiations to move beyond discussion to action for the agricultural sector in developing countries. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Understanding Climate Adaptation on Public Lands in the Upper Midwest: Implications for Monitoring and Tracking Progress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anhalt-Depies, Christine M.; Knoot, Tricia Gorby; Rissman, Adena R.; Sharp, Anthony K.; Martin, Karl J.

2016-05-01

There are limited examples of efforts to systematically monitor and track climate change adaptation progress in the context of natural resource management, despite substantial investments in adaptation initiatives. To better understand the status of adaptation within state natural resource agencies, we utilized and problematized a rational decision-making framework to characterize adaptation at the level of public land managers in the Upper Midwest. We conducted in-depth interviews with 29 biologists and foresters to provide an understanding of managers' experiences with, and perceptions of, climate change impacts, efforts towards planning for climate change, and a full range of actions implemented to address climate change. While the majority of managers identified climate change impacts affecting their region, they expressed significant uncertainty in interpreting those signals. Just under half of managers indicated planning efforts are underway, although most planning is remote from local management. Actions already implemented include both forward-looking measures and those aimed at coping with current impacts. In addition, cross-scale dynamics emerged as an important theme related to the overall adaptation process. The results hold implications for tracking future progress on climate change adaptation. Common definitions or measures of adaptation (e.g., presence of planning documents) may need to be reassessed for applicability at the level of public land managers.

Understanding Climate Adaptation on Public Lands in the Upper Midwest: Implications for Monitoring and Tracking Progress.

PubMed

Anhalt-Depies, Christine M; Knoot, Tricia Gorby; Rissman, Adena R; Sharp, Anthony K; Martin, Karl J

2016-05-01

There are limited examples of efforts to systematically monitor and track climate change adaptation progress in the context of natural resource management, despite substantial investments in adaptation initiatives. To better understand the status of adaptation within state natural resource agencies, we utilized and problematized a rational decision-making framework to characterize adaptation at the level of public land managers in the Upper Midwest. We conducted in-depth interviews with 29 biologists and foresters to provide an understanding of managers' experiences with, and perceptions of, climate change impacts, efforts towards planning for climate change, and a full range of actions implemented to address climate change. While the majority of managers identified climate change impacts affecting their region, they expressed significant uncertainty in interpreting those signals. Just under half of managers indicated planning efforts are underway, although most planning is remote from local management. Actions already implemented include both forward-looking measures and those aimed at coping with current impacts. In addition, cross-scale dynamics emerged as an important theme related to the overall adaptation process. The results hold implications for tracking future progress on climate change adaptation. Common definitions or measures of adaptation (e.g., presence of planning documents) may need to be reassessed for applicability at the level of public land managers.

The EnRiCH Community Resilience Framework for High-Risk Populations

PubMed Central

O'Sullivan, Tracey L.; Kuziemsky, Craig E.; Corneil, Wayne; Lemyre, Louise; Franco, Zeno

2014-01-01

Introduction: Resilience has been described in many ways and is inherently complex. In essence, it refers to the capacity to face and do well when adversity is encountered. There is a need for empirical research on community level initiatives designed to enhance resilience for high-risk groups as part of an upstream approach to disaster management. In this study, we address this issue, presenting the EnRiCH Community Resilience Framework for High-Risk Populations. Methods: The framework presented in this paper is empirically-based, using qualitative data from focus groups conducted as part of an asset-mapping intervention in five communities in Canada, and builds on extant literature in the fields of disaster and emergency management, health promotion, and community development. Results: Adaptive capacity is placed at the centre of the framework as a focal point, surrounded by four strategic areas for intervention (awareness/communication, asset/resource management, upstream-oriented leadership, and connectedness/engagement). Three drivers of adaptive capacity (empowerment, innovation, and collaboration) cross-cut the strategic areas and represent levers for action which can influence systems, people and institutions through expansion of asset literacy. Each component of the framework is embedded within the complexity and culture of a community. Discussion: We present recommendations for how this framework can be used to guide the design of future resilience-oriented initiatives with particular emphasis on inclusive engagement across a range of functional capabilities. PMID:25642373

The EnRiCH Community Resilience Framework for High-Risk Populations.

PubMed

O'Sullivan, Tracey L; Kuziemsky, Craig E; Corneil, Wayne; Lemyre, Louise; Franco, Zeno

2014-10-02

Resilience has been described in many ways and is inherently complex. In essence, it refers to the capacity to face and do well when adversity is encountered. There is a need for empirical research on community level initiatives designed to enhance resilience for high-risk groups as part of an upstream approach to disaster management. In this study, we address this issue, presenting the EnRiCH Community Resilience Framework for High-Risk Populations. The framework presented in this paper is empirically-based, using qualitative data from focus groups conducted as part of an asset-mapping intervention in five communities in Canada, and builds on extant literature in the fields of disaster and emergency management, health promotion, and community development. Adaptive capacity is placed at the centre of the framework as a focal point, surrounded by four strategic areas for intervention (awareness/communication, asset/resource management, upstream-oriented leadership, and connectedness/engagement). Three drivers of adaptive capacity (empowerment, innovation, and collaboration) cross-cut the strategic areas and represent levers for action which can influence systems, people and institutions through expansion of asset literacy. Each component of the framework is embedded within the complexity and culture of a community. We present recommendations for how this framework can be used to guide the design of future resilience-oriented initiatives with particular emphasis on inclusive engagement across a range of functional capabilities.

A Framework Approach to Evaluate Cross-Cultural Adaptation of Public Engagement Strategies for Radioactive Waste Management - 13430

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hermann, Laura

2013-07-01

The complex interplay of politics, economics and culture undermines attempts to define universal best practices for public engagement in the management of nuclear materials. In the international context, communicators must rely on careful adaptation and creative execution to make standard communication techniques succeed in their local communities. Nuclear professionals need an approach to assess and adapt culturally specific public engagement strategies to meet the demands of their particular political, economic and social structures. Using participant interviews and public sources, the Potomac Communications Group reviewed country-specific examples of nuclear-related communication efforts to provide insight into a proposed approach. The review consideredmore » a spectrum of cultural dimensions related to diversity, authority, conformity, proximity and time. Comparisons help to identify cross-cultural influences of various public engagement tactics and to inform a framework for communicators. While not prescriptive in its application, the framework offers a way for communicators to assess the salience of outreach tactics in specific situations. The approach can guide communicators to evaluate and tailor engagement strategies to achieve localized public outreach goals. (authors)« less

Facilitating adaptive management in a government program: A household energy efficiency case study.

PubMed

Curtis, Jim; Graham, Alex; Ghafoori, Eraj; Pyke, Susan; Kaufman, Stefan; Boulet, Mark

2017-02-01

Interim evaluations of government programs can sometimes reveal lower than expected outcomes, leading to the question of how adjustments can be made while the program is still underway. Although adaptive management frameworks can provide a practical roadmap to address this question, a lack of successful learnings and poor implementation have hampered the progress and wider application of adaptive management. Using a case study involving an energy efficiency government program targeting low-income households, this article provides supporting evidence on how adaptive management can be facilitated and applied. Factors such as proactive and responsive leadership, establishing a research-practice interface, and recognizing the skills, expertise, and contributions of multiple stakeholders guided adjustments to the program, and later paved the way for longer-term organizational learning that impacted how other programs are delivered. Implications for knowledge and practice, and a discussion of the challenges faced in the program, advance current thinking in adaptive management. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

FPGA-Based High-Performance Embedded Systems for Adaptive Edge Computing in Cyber-Physical Systems: The ARTICo³ Framework.

PubMed

Rodríguez, Alfonso; Valverde, Juan; Portilla, Jorge; Otero, Andrés; Riesgo, Teresa; de la Torre, Eduardo

2018-06-08

Cyber-Physical Systems are experiencing a paradigm shift in which processing has been relocated to the distributed sensing layer and is no longer performed in a centralized manner. This approach, usually referred to as Edge Computing, demands the use of hardware platforms that are able to manage the steadily increasing requirements in computing performance, while keeping energy efficiency and the adaptability imposed by the interaction with the physical world. In this context, SRAM-based FPGAs and their inherent run-time reconfigurability, when coupled with smart power management strategies, are a suitable solution. However, they usually fail in user accessibility and ease of development. In this paper, an integrated framework to develop FPGA-based high-performance embedded systems for Edge Computing in Cyber-Physical Systems is presented. This framework provides a hardware-based processing architecture, an automated toolchain, and a runtime to transparently generate and manage reconfigurable systems from high-level system descriptions without additional user intervention. Moreover, it provides users with support for dynamically adapting the available computing resources to switch the working point of the architecture in a solution space defined by computing performance, energy consumption and fault tolerance. Results show that it is indeed possible to explore this solution space at run time and prove that the proposed framework is a competitive alternative to software-based edge computing platforms, being able to provide not only faster solutions, but also higher energy efficiency for computing-intensive algorithms with significant levels of data-level parallelism.

Evaluating indicators of human well-being for ecosystem-based management

Treesearch

Sara Jo Breslow; Margaret Allen; Danielle Holstein; Brit Sojka; Raz Barnea; Xavier Basurto; Courtney Carothers; Susan Charnley; Sarah Coulthard; Nives Dolšak; Jamie Donatuto; Carlos García-Quijano; Christina C. Hicks; Arielle Levine; Michael B. Mascia; Karma Norman; Melissa Poe; Terre Satterfield; Kevin St. Martin; Phillip S. Levin

2017-01-01

Introduction: Interrelated social and ecological challenges demand an understanding of how environmental change and management decisions affect human well-being. This paper outlines a framework for measuring human well-being for ecosystem-based management (EBM). We present a prototype that can be adapted and developed for various scales and...

GMDPtoolbox: A Matlab library for designing spatial management policies. Application to the long-term collective management of an airborne disease

PubMed Central

Aubertot, Jean-Noël; Peyrard, Nathalie; Sabbadin, Régis

2017-01-01

Designing management policies in ecology and agroecology is complex. Several components must be managed together while they strongly interact spatially. Decision choices must be made under uncertainty on the results of the actions and on the system dynamics. Furthermore, the objectives pursued when managing ecological systems or agroecosystems are usually long term objectives, such as biodiversity conservation or sustainable crop production. The framework of Graph-Based Markov Decision Processes (GMDP) is well adapted to the qualitative modeling of such problems of sequential decision under uncertainty. Spatial interactions are easily modeled and integrated control policies (combining several action levers) can be designed through optimization. The provided policies are adaptive, meaning that management actions are decided at each time step (for instance yearly) and the chosen actions depend on the current system state. This framework has already been successfully applied to forest management and invasive species management. However, up to now, no “easy-to-use” implementation of this framework was available. We present GMDPtoolbox, a Matlab toolbox which can be used both for the design of new management policies and for comparing policies by simulation. We provide an illustration of the use of the toolbox on a realistic crop disease management problem: the design of long term management policy of blackleg of canola using an optimal combination of three possible cultural levers. This example shows how GMDPtoolbox can be used as a tool to support expert thinking. PMID:28982151

GMDPtoolbox: A Matlab library for designing spatial management policies. Application to the long-term collective management of an airborne disease.

PubMed

Cros, Marie-Josée; Aubertot, Jean-Noël; Peyrard, Nathalie; Sabbadin, Régis

2017-01-01

Designing management policies in ecology and agroecology is complex. Several components must be managed together while they strongly interact spatially. Decision choices must be made under uncertainty on the results of the actions and on the system dynamics. Furthermore, the objectives pursued when managing ecological systems or agroecosystems are usually long term objectives, such as biodiversity conservation or sustainable crop production. The framework of Graph-Based Markov Decision Processes (GMDP) is well adapted to the qualitative modeling of such problems of sequential decision under uncertainty. Spatial interactions are easily modeled and integrated control policies (combining several action levers) can be designed through optimization. The provided policies are adaptive, meaning that management actions are decided at each time step (for instance yearly) and the chosen actions depend on the current system state. This framework has already been successfully applied to forest management and invasive species management. However, up to now, no "easy-to-use" implementation of this framework was available. We present GMDPtoolbox, a Matlab toolbox which can be used both for the design of new management policies and for comparing policies by simulation. We provide an illustration of the use of the toolbox on a realistic crop disease management problem: the design of long term management policy of blackleg of canola using an optimal combination of three possible cultural levers. This example shows how GMDPtoolbox can be used as a tool to support expert thinking.

Beyond exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity: A response based ecological framework to assess species climate change vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fortini, Lucas B.; Schubert, Olivia

2017-01-01

As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integrate multiple sources of information by utilizing a framework that distinguishes factors relevant to species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, this framework was originally developed for human systems, and its use to evaluate species vulnerability has serious practical and theoretical limitations. By instead defining vulnerability as the degree to which a species is unable to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., toleration of projected changes, migration to new climate-compatible areas, enduring in microrefugia, and evolutionary adaptation), we can bring VAs into the realm of ecological science without applying borrowed abstract concepts that have consistently challenged species-centric research and management. This response-based framework to assess species vulnerability to climate change allows better integration of relevant ecological data and past research, yielding results with much clearer implications for conservation and research prioritization.

Framework for measuring adaptive knowledge-rich systems performance.

PubMed

Bushko, Renata G

2005-01-01

The universe is non repeatable in nature--most of events cannot be prestated and do not repeat themselves. The only way to create systems that are truly useful is to make them adaptive (able to reason by analogy and learn) and rich in knowledge (including common sense knowledge). Adaptive and knowledge-rich health management could get us closer to errorless health care where small incremental adjustments happen all the time preventing occurrence of an error. In the era of adaptive systems we need to have a way to evaluate their performance. Are they truly adaptive? How adaptive are they? Are they accurate enough? Are they fast enough? Are they cost effective? This chapter presents general framework for measuring adaptive knowledge-rich systems' performance and includes among others definitions of adaptiveness factor, britt (a unit of brittleness) and uso-quant (unit of usefulness of a piece of knowledge). Measuring adaptive knowledge-rich systems performance is one of the most important research areas that can have a big pay-off in healthcare now and in the future.

Assessing adaptation to the health risks of climate change: what guidance can existing frameworks provide?

PubMed

Füssel, Hans-Martin

2008-02-01

Climate change adaptation assessments aim at assisting policy-makers in reducing the health risks associated with climate change and variability. This paper identifies key characteristics of the climate-health relationship and of the adaptation decision problem that require consideration in climate change adaptation assessments. It then analyzes whether these characteristics are appropriately considered in existing guidelines for climate impact and adaptation assessment and in pertinent conceptual models from environmental epidemiology. The review finds three assessment guidelines based on a generalized risk management framework to be most useful for guiding adaptation assessments of human health. Since none of them adequately addresses all key challenges of the adaptation decision problem, actual adaptation assessments need to combine elements from different guidelines. Established conceptual models from environmental epidemiology are found to be of limited relevance for assessing and planning adaptation to climate change since the prevailing toxicological model of environmental health is not applicable to many climate-sensitive health risks.

A Novel Framework for Adaptation in Agriculture: Lessons Learned from California's Wine Industry (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholas, K. A.

2010-12-01

While crop yields are threatened by climate change, the management decisions of growers, including their practices to modify the microclimate experienced by the crop, can partially or even completely offset these damages. However, there have been few evaluations of adaptation on the farm scale, where managers are on the front lines of responding to global change. I will present a framework for classifying potential adaptations based on their temporal and spatial scale, their ease of implementation, and their effectiveness in altering or maintaining crop production. Applying this framework to the winegrowing industry in California, it appears that many strategies suggested in the literature for adaptation will either be of limited effectiveness, likely to be cost-prohibitive, or are not compatible with the current values of growers. However, interviews with and observations of winegrowers reveal that novel adaptations, not widely discussed in the literature, are already being employed, often by individuals in an experimental capacity and without community coordination. For example, in addition to irrigation, water is used to modify the vine microclimate for both heating (frost protection) and evaporative cooling. An analysis of responses to past environmental stresses in the wine industry revealed that growers tended to respond to stresses individually rather than collectively, except for severe, novel pests and diseases. Responses may be reactive or proactive; most proactive strategies have been short-term, in response to imminent stress. Growers tend to rely on their own experience to guide their management decisions, which may offer poor guidance under novel climate regimes. These findings highlight some of the difficulties expected in adapting to global change, as well as areas for strategic investments to enhance agricultural resilience to climate change. In particular, strategies to enhance the potential for effective proactive, collective responses could improve adaptive capacity in the context of climate change.

A toolkit modeling approach for sustainable forest management planning: achieving balance between science and local needs

Treesearch

Brian R. Sturtevant; Andrew Fall; Daniel D. Kneeshaw; Neal P. P. Simon; Michael J. Papaik; Kati Berninger; Frederik Doyon; Don G. Morgan; Christian Messier

2007-01-01

To assist forest managers in balancing an increasing diversity of resource objectives, we developed a toolkit modeling approach for sustainable forest management (SFM). The approach inserts a meta-modeling strategy into a collaborative modeling framework grounded in adaptive management philosophy that facilitates participation among stakeholders, decision makers, and...

A Framework for Effective Use of Hydroclimate Models in Climate-Change Adaptation Planning for Managed Habitats with Limited Hydrologic Response Data.

PubMed

Esralew, Rachel A; Flint, Lorraine; Thorne, James H; Boynton, Ryan; Flint, Alan

2016-07-01

Climate-change adaptation planning for managed wetlands is challenging under uncertain futures when the impact of historic climate variability on wetland response is unquantified. We assessed vulnerability of Modoc National Wildlife Refuge (MNWR) through use of the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) landscape hydrology model, and six global climate models, representing projected wetter and drier conditions. We further developed a conceptual model that provides greater value for water managers by incorporating the BCM outputs into a conceptual framework that links modeled parameters to refuge management outcomes. This framework was used to identify landscape hydrology parameters that reflect refuge sensitivity to changes in (1) climatic water deficit (CWD) and recharge, and (2) the magnitude, timing, and frequency of water inputs. BCM outputs were developed for 1981-2100 to assess changes and forecast the probability of experiencing wet and dry water year types that have historically resulted in challenging conditions for refuge habitat management. We used a Yule's Q skill score to estimate the probability of modeled discharge that best represents historic water year types. CWD increased in all models across 72.3-100 % of the water supply basin by 2100. Earlier timing in discharge, greater cool season discharge, and lesser irrigation season water supply were predicted by most models. Under the worst-case scenario, moderately dry years increased from 10-20 to 40-60 % by 2100. MNWR could adapt by storing additional water during the cool season for later use and prioritizing irrigation of habitats during dry years.

From data to decisions: Processing information, biases, and beliefs for improved management of natural resources and environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glynn, Pierre D.; Voinov, Alexey A.; Shapiro, Carl D.; White, Paul A.

2017-04-01

Our different kinds of minds and types of thinking affect the ways we decide, take action, and cooperate (or not). Derived from these types of minds, innate biases, beliefs, heuristics, and values (BBHV) influence behaviors, often beneficially, when individuals or small groups face immediate, local, acute situations that they and their ancestors faced repeatedly in the past. BBHV, though, need to be recognized and possibly countered or used when facing new, complex issues or situations especially if they need to be managed for the benefit of a wider community, for the longer-term and the larger-scale. Taking BBHV into account, we explain and provide a cyclic science-infused adaptive framework for (1) gaining knowledge of complex systems and (2) improving their management. We explore how this process and framework could improve the governance of science and policy for different types of systems and issues, providing examples in the area of natural resources, hazards, and the environment. Lastly, we suggest that an "Open Traceable Accountable Policy" initiative that followed our suggested adaptive framework could beneficially complement recent Open Data/Model science initiatives.

Building the framework for climate change adaptation in the urban areas using participatory approach: the Czech Republic experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmer, Adam; Hubatová, Marie; Lupač, Miroslav; Pondělíček, Michael; Šafařík, Miroslav; Šilhánková, Vladimíra; Vačkář, David

2016-04-01

The Czech Republic has experienced numerous extreme hydrometeorological / climatological events such as floods (significant ones in 1997, 2002, 2010, 2013), droughts (2013, 2015), heat waves (2015) and windstorms (2007) during past decades. These events are generally attributed to the ongoing climate change and caused loss of lives and significant material damages (up to several % of GDP in some years), especially in urban areas. To initiate the adaptation process of urban areas, the main objective was to prepare a framework for creating climate change adaptation strategies of individual cities reflecting physical-geographical and socioeconomical conditions of the Czech Republic. Three pilot cities (Hradec Králové, Žďár nad Sázavou, Dobru\\vska) were used to optimize entire procedure. Two sets of participatory seminars were organised in order to involve all key stakeholders (the city council, department of the environment, department of the crisis management, hydrometeorological institute, local experts, ...) into the process of creation of the adaptation strategy from its early stage. Lesson learned for the framework were related especially to its applicability on a local level, which is largely a matter of the understandability of the concept. Finally, this illustrative and widely applicable framework (so called 'road map to adaptation strategy') includes five steps: (i) analysis of existing strategies and plans on national, regional and local levels; (ii) analysing climate-change related hazards and key vulnerabilities; (iii) identification of adaptation needs, evaluation of existing adaptation capacity and formulation of future adaptation priorities; (iv) identification of limits and barriers for the adaptation (economical, environmental, ...); and (v) selection of specific types of adaptation measures reflecting identified adaptation needs and formulated adaptation priorities. Keywords: climate change adaptation (CCA); urban areas; participatory approach; road map

A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Management of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Sea level rise is causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, including species of concern, such as the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus). We present a climate change adaptation strategy (CCAS) adopted by scientific, management, and policy stakeholders for managing coastal marshes and enhancing system resiliency. A common adaptive management approach previously used for restoration projects was modified to identify climate-related vulnerabilities and plan climate change adaptive actions. As an example of implementation of the CCAS, we describe the stakeholder plans and management actions the US Fish and Wildlife Service and partners developed to build coastal resiliency in the Narrow River Estuary, RI, in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. When possible, an experimental BACI (before-after, control-impact) design, described as pre- and post-sampling at the impact site and one or more control sites, was incorporated into the climate change adaptation and implementation plans. Specific climate change adaptive actions and monitoring plans are described and include shoreline stabilization, restoring marsh drainage, increasing marsh elevation, and enabling upland marsh migration. The CCAS provides a framework and methodology for successfully managing coa

Adaptive management in the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System: Science-management partnerships for conservation delivery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, C.T.; Lonsdorf, E.V.; Knutson, M.G.; Laskowski, H.P.; Lor, S.K.

2011-01-01

Adaptive management is an approach to recurrent decision making in which uncertainty about the decision is reduced over time through comparison of outcomes predicted by competing models against observed values of those outcomes. The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is a large land management program charged with making natural resource management decisions, which often are made under considerable uncertainty, severe operational constraints, and conditions that limit ability to precisely carry out actions as intended. The NWRS presents outstanding opportunities for the application of adaptive management, but also difficult challenges. We describe two cooperative programs between the Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey to implement adaptive management at scales ranging from small, single refuge applications to large, multi-refuge, multi-region projects. Our experience to date suggests three important attributes common to successful implementation: a vigorous multi-partner collaboration, practical and informative decision framework components, and a sustained commitment to the process. Administrators in both agencies should consider these attributes when developing programs to promote the use and acceptance of adaptive management in the NWRS. ?? 2010 .

An Enhanced Adaptive Management Approach for Remediation of Legacy Mercury in the South River

PubMed Central

Foran, Christy M.; Baker, Kelsie M.; Grosso, Nancy R.; Linkov, Igor

2015-01-01

Uncertainties about future conditions and the effects of chosen actions, as well as increasing resource scarcity, have been driving forces in the utilization of adaptive management strategies. However, many applications of adaptive management have been criticized for a number of shortcomings, including a limited ability to learn from actions and a lack of consideration of stakeholder objectives. To address these criticisms, we supplement existing adaptive management approaches with a decision-analytical approach that first informs the initial selection of management alternatives and then allows for periodic re-evaluation or phased implementation of management alternatives based on monitoring information and incorporation of stakeholder values. We describe the application of this enhanced adaptive management (EAM) framework to compare remedial alternatives for mercury in the South River, based on an understanding of the loading and behavior of mercury in the South River near Waynesboro, VA. The outcomes show that the ranking of remedial alternatives is influenced by uncertainty in the mercury loading model, by the relative importance placed on different criteria, and by cost estimates. The process itself demonstrates that a decision model can link project performance criteria, decision-maker preferences, environmental models, and short- and long-term monitoring information with management choices to help shape a remediation approach that provides useful information for adaptive, incremental implementation. PMID:25665032

Short Duration Emergency Incidents Managed as Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nixon, Thomas J.

Emergency incidents have historically been managed by experience and some directional principles usually found in SOPs/SOGs or other pre-incident planning documents. The use of experience has the risk of bias influencing the decisions being made in truly life or death situations. Responders of disasters, long duration emergency incidents, are often equipped with a framework adapted to the project management lifecycle to assure the project priorities are adequately addressed. The disaster framework provides for savings from risk, loss, waste. This research is demonstrating the ability and reasoning to develop a framework to address short duration emergency incidents and expand the events that can be managed as a project. The research of the literature found that a framework can be applied to the project management lifecycle and the priorities of a short duration emergency incident can be managed as a project. The limitations of not having the ability to conduct empirical testing and the risks of not developing a formal implementation plan are discussed. Short duration emergency incidents are found to be capable of being managed as projects and will benefit from the effectiveness of project management methodologies.

Strategic survey framework for the Northwest Forest Plan survey and manage program.

Treesearch

Randy Molina; Dan McKenzie; Robin Lesher; Jan Ford; Jim Alegria; Richard Cutler

2003-01-01

This document outlines an iterative process for assessing the information needs for all Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) survey and manage species, designing and implementing strategic surveys (including field surveys and other information-gathering processes), and analyzing that information for use in the NWFP annual species review and adaptive-management processes. The...

Your Guide for Teaching Money Management. [Revised.] Money Management.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baran, Nancy H., Ed.; Tarrant, Sharon M., Ed.

This guide provides a framework for teaching consumer education to senior high and adult education classes. It may be used to develop a broad consumer economics program, to teach a single unit, or to incorporate money-managing concepts into various subject areas. Introductory materials include suggestions for adapting materials to curriculum…

A Model for an Information Security Risk Management (ISRM) Framework for Saudi Arabian Organisations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alshareef, Naser

2016-01-01

Countries in the Gulf represent thriving, globally important commercial centres. They have embraced technology and modern management methods, often originating in the western countries. In adapting to quite different cultures these do not always operate as successfully. The adoption and practices of the Information Security Risk Management (ISRM)…

Integrating a Detailed Agricultural Model in a Global Economic Framework: New methods for assessment of climate mitigation and adaptation opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Calvin, K.; Zhang, X.; Wise, M.; West, T. O.

2010-12-01

Climate change and food security are global issues increasingly linked through human decision making that takes place across all scales from on-farm management actions to international climate negotiations. Understanding how agricultural systems can respond to climate change, through mitigation or adaptation, while still supplying sufficient food to feed a growing global population, thus requires a multi-sector tool in a global economic framework. Integrated assessment models are one such tool, however they are typically driven by historical aggregate statistics of production in combination with exogenous assumptions of future trends in agricultural productivity; they are not yet capable of exploring agricultural management practices as climate adaptation or mitigation strategies. Yet there are agricultural models capable of detailed biophysical modeling of farm management and climate impacts on crop yield, soil erosion and C and greenhouse gas emissions, although these are typically applied at point scales that are incompatible with coarse resolution integrated assessment modeling. To combine the relative strengths of these modeling systems, we are using the agricultural model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate), applied in a geographic data framework for regional analyses, to provide input to the global economic model GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model). The initial phase of our approach focuses on a pilot region of the Midwest United States, a highly productive agricultural area. We apply EPIC, a point based biophysical process model, at 60 m spatial resolution within this domain and aggregate the results to GCAM agriculture and land use subregions for the United States. GCAM is then initialized with multiple management options for key food and bioenergy crops. Using EPIC to distinguish these management options based on grain yield, residue yield, soil C change and cost differences, GCAM then simulates the optimum distribution of the available management options to meet demands for food and energy over the next century. The coupled models provide a new platform for evaluating future changes in agricultural management based on food demand, bioenergy demand, and changes in crop yield and soil C under a changing climate. This framework can be applied to evaluate the economically and biophysically optimal distribution of management under future climates.

A watershed-based adaptive knowledge system for developing ecosystem stakeholder partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Hebin; Thornton, Jeffrey A.; Shadrin, Nickolai

2015-11-01

This study proposes a Watershed-based Adaptive Knowledge System (WAKES) to consistently coordinate multiple stakeholders in developing sustainable partnerships for ecosystem management. WAKES is extended from the institutional mechanism of Payments for Improving Ecosystem Services at the Watershed-scale (PIES-W). PIES-W is designed relating to the governance of ecosystem services fl ows focused on a lake as a resource stock connecting its infl owing and outfl owing rivers within its watershed. It explicitly realizes the values of conservation services provided by private land managers and incorporates their activities into the public organizing framework for ecosystem management. It implicitly extends the "upstream-to-downstream" organizing perspective to a broader vision of viewing the ecosystems as comprised of both "watershed landscapes" and "marine landscapes". Extended from PIES-W, WAKES specifies two corresponding feedback: Framework I and II. Framework I is a relationship matrix comprised of three input-output structures of primary governance factors intersecting three subsystems of a watershed with regard to ecosystem services and human stakeholders. Framework II is the Stakeholder-and-Information structure channeling five types of information among four stakeholder groups in order to enable the feedbacks mechanism of Framework I. WAKES identifies the rationales behind three fundamental information transformations, illustrated with the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis and the Strategic Action Program of the Bermejo River Binational Basin. These include (1) translating scientific knowledge into public information within the Function-and-Service structure corresponding to the ecological subsystem, (2) incorporating public perceptions into political will within the Service- and- Value structure corresponding to the economic subsystem, and (3) integrating scientific knowledge, public perceptions and political will into management options within the Value-and-Stakeholder structure corresponding to the social subsystem. This study seeks to share a vision of social adaptation for a global sustainable future through developing a network to adopt contributions from and forming partnerships among all ecosystem stakeholders.

Patterns of adaptation to children's food allergies.

PubMed

Fedele, D A; McQuaid, E L; Faino, A; Strand, M; Cohen, S; Robinson, J; Atkins, D; Hourihane, J O'B; Klinnert, M D

2016-04-01

Families with food allergy (FA) are at risk of reduced quality of life and elevated anxiety. A moderate level of anxiety may be beneficial to sustain vigilance for food avoidance; however, excessive anxiety may increase risk for burden and maladjustment. The current study presents a framework for understanding the patterns of adaptation to FA across families and to identify typologies of families that would benefit from intervention. Participants included 57 children, 6-12 years old with documented FA, and their mothers. Families were assessed using the Food Allergy Management and Adaptation Scale. Families also completed measures of quality of life, anxiety, FA management, and psychosocial impairment. A hierarchical cluster analysis revealed that 56 of the 57 families of food-allergic children were categorized into four groups that differed on their adequacy of family FA management, levels of anxiety, and balanced psychosocial functioning: balanced responders (n = 23; 41%), high responders (n = 25; 45%), and low responders (n = 3; 5%). The fourth group, anxious high responders (n = 5; 9%), was characterized by extremely high maternal FA anxiety scores and low scores for balanced integration of FA management and psychosocial functioning. Families in clusters differed across illness and psychosocial outcome variables. Families with FA were characterized by patterns of FA management, anxiety, and ability to integrate FA demands into daily life. Identified adaptation patterns correspond with clinical impressions and provide a framework for identifying families in need of intervention. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessment of urban pluvial flood risk and efficiency of adaptation options through simulations - A new generation of urban planning tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto. Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Deletic, Ana; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2017-07-01

We present a new framework for flexible testing of flood risk adaptation strategies in a variety of urban development and climate scenarios. This framework couples the 1D-2D hydrodynamic simulation package MIKE FLOOD with the agent-based urban development model DAnCE4Water and provides the possibility to systematically test various flood risk adaptation measures ranging from large infrastructure changes over decentralised water management to urban planning policies. We have tested the framework in a case study in Melbourne, Australia considering 9 scenarios for urban development and climate and 32 potential combinations of flood adaptation measures. We found that the performance of adaptation measures strongly depended on the considered climate and urban development scenario and the other implementation measures implemented, suggesting that adaptive strategies are preferable over one-off investments. Urban planning policies proved to be an efficient means for the reduction of flood risk, while implementing property buyback and pipe increases in a guideline-oriented manner was too costly. Random variations in location and time point of urban development could have significant impact on flood risk and would in some cases outweigh the benefits of less efficient adaptation strategies. The results of our setup can serve as an input for robust decision making frameworks and thus support the identification of flood risk adaptation measures that are economically efficient and robust to variations of climate and urban layout.

Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change.

PubMed

Anthony, Kenneth R N; Marshall, Paul A; Abdulla, Ameer; Beeden, Roger; Bergh, Chris; Black, Ryan; Eakin, C Mark; Game, Edward T; Gooch, Margaret; Graham, Nicholas A J; Green, Alison; Heron, Scott F; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Knowland, Cheryl; Mangubhai, Sangeeta; Marshall, Nadine; Maynard, Jeffrey A; McGinnity, Peter; McLeod, Elizabeth; Mumby, Peter J; Nyström, Magnus; Obura, David; Oliver, Jamie; Possingham, Hugh P; Pressey, Robert L; Rowlands, Gwilym P; Tamelander, Jerker; Wachenfeld, David; Wear, Stephanie

2015-01-01

Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local-scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio-economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience-Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press-type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse-type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo-Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on-the-ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on actions that support resilience at finer spatial scales, and that are tightly linked to ecosystem goods and services. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Adaptive management for soil ecosystem services

USGS Publications Warehouse

Birge, Hannah E.; Bevans, Rebecca A.; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.; Baer, Sara G.; Wall, Diana H.

2016-01-01

Ecosystem services provided by soil include regulation of the atmosphere and climate, primary (including agricultural) production, waste processing, decomposition, nutrient conservation, water purification, erosion control, medical resources, pest control, and disease mitigation. The simultaneous production of these multiple services arises from complex interactions among diverse aboveground and belowground communities across multiple scales. When a system is mismanaged, non-linear and persistent losses in ecosystem services can arise. Adaptive management is an approach to management designed to reduce uncertainty as management proceeds. By developing alternative hypotheses, testing these hypotheses and adjusting management in response to outcomes, managers can probe dynamic mechanistic relationships among aboveground and belowground soil system components. In doing so, soil ecosystem services can be preserved and critical ecological thresholds avoided. Here, we present an adaptive management framework designed to reduce uncertainty surrounding the soil system, even when soil ecosystem services production is not the explicit management objective, so that managers can reach their management goals without undermining soil multifunctionality or contributing to an irreversible loss of soil ecosystem services.

Valuing physically and financially-induced flexibility in large-scale water resources systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmant, Amaury; Pina, Jasson; Côté, Pascal

2017-04-01

In a world characterized by rapid changes in terms of water demands and supplies, there is a growing and persistent need for institutional reforms that promote cross-sectoral, adaptive management processes and policies. Yet, in many regions throughout the world, the continued expansion of supply-side infrastructure is still perceived as the way to go despite the rising financial, social and environmental costs. This trend is further compounded by the risks posed by climate change; reservoir storage, for example, is still perceived as a key element of climate change adaptation strategies in many countries. There is a growing concern that such strategies may result in a rigidity trap whereby the physical and institutional infrastructure become inflexible and unable to adapt to changes because they are mutually reinforcing each other. However, several authors have recently advocated for adaptive, flexible, management techniques involving a more diversified portfolio of measures whose management is regularly updated as new information about supplies and demands becomes available. Despite being conceptually attractive, such a management approach presents several challenges to policy makers. One of them is the sheer amount of information that must be processed each time a management decision must be taken. To address this issue, we propose an optimization framework that can be used to determine the optimal management of a large portfolio of physical and financial assets using various hydro-climatic information. This optimization framework is illustrated with the management of a power system in Quebec involving various power stations, reservoirs, power and energy contracts as well as hydrologic and climatic data. The results can be used to assess the economic value of the flexibility induced by either the physical assets (power stations and reservoirs) or by the financial ones (contracts), an information we believe is important to highlight the benefits of adaptive management techniques.

Programming for Effective Concept Learning: Where Should the Branches Go and Why?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Driscoll, Marcy P.; And Others

The two studies detailed in this paper investigated the effects of adaptive sequencing of examples and adaptive feedback on concept learning using computer-based instruction. In the first study, two groups of undergraduate students progressed through a set of five behavior management concepts presented in the rational set generator framework.…

Consideration of reference points for the management of renewable resources under an adaptive management paradigm

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irwin, Brian J.; Conroy, Michael J.

2013-01-01

The success of natural resource management depends on monitoring, assessment and enforcement. In support of these efforts, reference points (RPs) are often viewed as critical values of management-relevant indicators. This paper considers RPs from the standpoint of objective-driven decision making in dynamic resource systems, guided by principles of structured decision making (SDM) and adaptive resource management (AM). During the development of natural resource policy, RPs have been variously treated as either ‘targets’ or ‘triggers’. Under a SDM/AM paradigm, target RPs correspond approximately to value-based objectives, which may in turn be either of fundamental interest to stakeholders or intermediaries to other central objectives. By contrast, trigger RPs correspond to decision rules that are presumed to lead to desirable outcomes (such as the programme targets). Casting RPs as triggers or targets within a SDM framework is helpful towards clarifying why (or whether) a particular metric is appropriate. Further, the benefits of a SDM/AM process include elucidation of underlying untested assumptions that may reveal alternative metrics for use as RPs. Likewise, a structured decision-analytic framework may also reveal that failure to achieve management goals is not because the metrics are wrong, but because the decision-making process in which they are embedded is insufficiently robust to uncertainty, is not efficiently directed at producing a resource objective, or is incapable of adaptation to new knowledge.

Growth and collapse of a resource system: an adaptive cycle of change in public lands governance and forest management in Alaska

Treesearch

Colin M. Beier; Amy Lauren Lovecraft; F. Stuart Chapin

2009-01-01

Large-scale government efforts to develop resources for societal benefit have often experienced cycles of growth and decline that leave behind difficult social and ecological legacies. To understand the origins and outcomes of these failures of resource governance, scholars have applied the framework of the adaptive cycle. In this study, we used the adaptive cycle as a...

A Watershed Modeling System for Fort Benning, GA Using the US EPA BASINS Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

Benning watersheds. The objective of this project was to identify, adapt , and develop watershed management models for Fort Benning that address impacts on...of Need (SON) (SERDP, 2005) which recognized that military installations needed the identification, adaptation , and development of watershed...capabilities. To accomplish these goals the Strategic Plan for SEMP (2005) notes the need for both fundamental and applied ( adaptive ) research; this need

Implementation of Environmental Flows for Intermittent River Systems: Adaptive Management and Stakeholder Participation Facilitate Implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conallin, John; Wilson, Emma; Campbell, Josh

2018-03-01

Anthropogenic pressure on freshwater ecosystems is increasing, and often leading to unacceptable social-ecological outcomes. This is even more prevalent in intermittent river systems where many are already heavily modified, or human encroachment is increasing. Although adaptive management approaches have the potential to aid in providing the framework to consider the complexities of intermittent river systems and improve utility within the management of these systems, success has been variable. This paper looks at the application of an adaptive management pilot project within an environmental flows program in an intermittent stream (Tuppal Creek) in the Murray Darling Basin, Australia. The program focused on stakeholder involvement, participatory decision-making, and simple monitoring as the basis of an adaptive management approach. The approach found that by building trust and ownership through concentrating on inclusiveness and transparency, partnerships between government agencies and landholders were developed. This facilitated a willingness to accept greater risks and unintended consequences allowing implementation to occur.

Adaptive management for mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in source water: a case study in an agricultural catchment in South Australia.

PubMed

Bryan, Brett A; Kandulu, John; Deere, Daniel A; White, Monique; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Crossman, Neville D

2009-07-01

Water-borne pathogens such as Cryptosporidium pose a significant human health risk and catchments provide the first critical pollution 'barrier' in mitigating risk in drinking water supply. In this paper we apply an adaptive management framework to mitigating Cryptosporidium risk in source water using a case study of the Myponga catchment in South Australia. Firstly, we evaluated the effectiveness of past water quality management programs in relation to the adoption of practices by landholders using a socio-economic survey of land use and management in the catchment. The impact of past management on the mitigation of Cryptosporidium risk in source water was also evaluated based on analysis of water quality monitoring data. Quantitative risk assessment was used in planning the next round of management in the adaptive cycle. Specifically, a pathogen budget model was used to identify the major remaining sources of Cryptosporidium in the catchment and estimate the mitigation impact of 30 alternative catchment management scenarios. Survey results show that earlier programs have resulted in the comprehensive adoption of best management practices by dairy farmers including exclusion of stock from watercourses and effluent management from 2000 to 2007. Whilst median Cryptosporidium concentrations in source water have decreased since 2004 they remain above target levels and put pressure on other barriers to mitigate risk, particularly the treatment plant. Non-dairy calves were identified as the major remaining source of Cryptosporidium in the Myponga catchment. The restriction of watercourse access of non-dairy calves could achieve a further reduction in Cryptosporidium export to the Myponga reservoir of around 90% from current levels. The adaptive management framework applied in this study was useful in guiding learning from past management, and in analysing, planning and refocusing the next round of catchment management strategies to achieve water quality targets.

Cooperative drought adaptation: Integrating infrastructure development, conservation, and water transfers into adaptive policy pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeff, Harrison B.; Herman, Jonathan D.; Reed, Patrick M.; Characklis, Gregory W.

2016-09-01

A considerable fraction of urban water supply capacity serves primarily as a hedge against drought. Water utilities can reduce their dependence on firm capacity and forestall the development of new supplies using short-term drought management actions, such as conservation and transfers. Nevertheless, new supplies will often be needed, especially as demands rise due to population growth and economic development. Planning decisions regarding when and how to integrate new supply projects are fundamentally shaped by the way in which short-term adaptive drought management strategies are employed. To date, the challenges posed by long-term infrastructure sequencing and adaptive short-term drought management are treated independently, neglecting important feedbacks between planning and management actions. This work contributes a risk-based framework that uses continuously updating risk-of-failure (ROF) triggers to capture the feedbacks between short-term drought management actions (e.g., conservation and water transfers) and the selection and sequencing of a set of regional supply infrastructure options over the long term. Probabilistic regional water supply pathways are discovered for four water utilities in the "Research Triangle" region of North Carolina. Furthermore, this study distinguishes the status-quo planning path of independent action (encompassing utility-specific conservation and new supply infrastructure only) from two cooperative formulations: "weak" cooperation, which combines utility-specific conservation and infrastructure development with regional transfers, and "strong" cooperation, which also includes jointly developed regional infrastructure to support transfers. Results suggest that strong cooperation aids utilities in meeting their individual objectives at substantially lower costs and with less overall development. These benefits demonstrate how an adaptive, rule-based decision framework can coordinate integrated solutions that would not be identified using more traditional optimization methods.

33 CFR 385.9 - Implementation principles.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Responsibilities § 385.9 Implementation principles. The Corps of Engineers and the South Florida Water Management...) Endorsement of the Plan as a restoration framework is not intended as a constraint on innovation during implementation through the adaptive management process. Continuous improvement of the Plan shall be sought to...

Situating Green Infrastructure in Context: A Framework for Adaptive Socio-Hydrology in Cities

EPA Science Inventory

Management of urban hydrologic processes using green infrastructure (GI) has largely focused on storm water management. Thus, design and implementation of GI usually rely on physical site characteristics and local rainfall patterns, and do not typically account for human or socia...

A Personalized Predictive Framework for Multivariate Clinical Time Series via Adaptive Model Selection.

PubMed

Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

2017-11-01

Building of an accurate predictive model of clinical time series for a patient is critical for understanding of the patient condition, its dynamics, and optimal patient management. Unfortunately, this process is not straightforward. First, patient-specific variations are typically large and population-based models derived or learned from many different patients are often unable to support accurate predictions for each individual patient. Moreover, time series observed for one patient at any point in time may be too short and insufficient to learn a high-quality patient-specific model just from the patient's own data. To address these problems we propose, develop and experiment with a new adaptive forecasting framework for building multivariate clinical time series models for a patient and for supporting patient-specific predictions. The framework relies on the adaptive model switching approach that at any point in time selects the most promising time series model out of the pool of many possible models, and consequently, combines advantages of the population, patient-specific and short-term individualized predictive models. We demonstrate that the adaptive model switching framework is very promising approach to support personalized time series prediction, and that it is able to outperform predictions based on pure population and patient-specific models, as well as, other patient-specific model adaptation strategies.

Linking Governance to Sustainable Management Outcomes: Applying Dynamic Indicator Profiles to River Basin Organization Case Studies around the World.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Bouckaert, F. W.

2017-12-01

Institutional best practice for integrated river basin management advocates the river basin organisation (RBO) model as pivotal to achieve sustainable management outcomes and stakeholder engagement. The model has been widely practiced in transboundary settings and is increasingly adopted at national scales, though its effectiveness remains poorly studied. A meta-analysis of four river basins has been conducted to assess governance models and linking it to evaluation of biophysical management outcomes. The analysis is based on a Theory of Change framework, and includes functional dynamic governance indicator profiles, coupled to sustainable ecosystem management outcome profiles. The governance and outcome profiles, informed by context specific indicators, demand that targets for setting objectives are required in multiple dimensions, and trajectory outlines are a useful tool to track progress along the journey mapped out by the Theory of Change framework. Priorities, trade-offs and objectives vary in each basin, but the diagnostics tool allows comparison between basins in their capacity to reach targets through successive evaluations. The distance between capacity and target scores determines how program planning should be prioritized and resources allocated for implementation; this is a dynamic process requiring regular evaluations and adaptive management. The findings of this study provide a conceptual framework for combining dimensions of integrated water management principles that bridge tensions between (i) stakeholder engagement and participatory management (bottom-up approach) using localized knowledge and (ii) decision-making, control-and-command, system-scale, accountable and equitable management (top-down approach).The notion of adaptive management is broadened to include whole-of-program learnings, rather than single hypothesis based learning adjustments. This triple loop learning combines exploitative methods refinement with explorative evaluation of underlying paradigms. The significance of these findings suggests that in order to achieve effective management outcomes, a framework is required that combines governance performance with evaluations of bio-physical outcomes.

Cyclone preparedness and response: an analysis of lessons identified using an adapted military planning framework.

PubMed

Tatham, Peter; Oloruntoba, Richard; Spens, Karen

2012-01-01

The United Kingdom uses the Defence Lines of Development (DLOD) framework to analyse and understand the key components and costs of a military capability. Rooted in the Resource Based View (RBV) of a firm, an adapted DLOD approach is employed to explore, analyse and discuss the preparedness, planning and response strategies of two markedly different countries (Australia and Bangladesh) when faced with a major cyclone event of a comparable size. Given the numerous similarities in the challenges facing military forces in a complex emergency and humanitarian agencies in a natural disaster, the paper demonstrates the applicability of the DLOD framework as an analysis and planning tool in the cyclone preparedness planning and response phases, and more broadly within the disaster management area. In addition, the paper highlights the benefit to disaster managers, policymakers and researchers of exploiting comparative cross-learning opportunities from disaster events, drawn from different sectors and countries. © 2012 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2012.

Atmospheric Environment Vulnerability Cause Analysis for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu

2018-01-01

Assessing and quantifying atmospheric vulnerability is a key issue in urban environmental protection and management. This paper integrated the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy synthesis evaluation and Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis into an Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptive capacity (ESA) framework to quantitatively assess atmospheric environment vulnerability in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region with spatial and temporal comparisons. The elaboration of the relationships between atmospheric environment vulnerability and indices of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity supports enable analysis of the atmospheric environment vulnerability. Our findings indicate that the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the BTH region exhibits obvious spatial heterogeneity, which is caused by regional diversity in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indices. The results of atmospheric environment vulnerability assessment and the cause analysis can provide guidance to pick out key control regions and recognize vulnerable indicators for study sites. The framework developed in this paper can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to support environmental management. PMID:29342852

Atmospheric Environment Vulnerability Cause Analysis for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu

2018-01-13

Assessing and quantifying atmospheric vulnerability is a key issue in urban environmental protection and management. This paper integrated the Analytical hierarchy process (AHP), fuzzy synthesis evaluation and Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis into an Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptive capacity (ESA) framework to quantitatively assess atmospheric environment vulnerability in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region with spatial and temporal comparisons. The elaboration of the relationships between atmospheric environment vulnerability and indices of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity supports enable analysis of the atmospheric environment vulnerability. Our findings indicate that the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the BTH region exhibits obvious spatial heterogeneity, which is caused by regional diversity in exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indices. The results of atmospheric environment vulnerability assessment and the cause analysis can provide guidance to pick out key control regions and recognize vulnerable indicators for study sites. The framework developed in this paper can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to support environmental management.

NRDA Workplans | NOAA Gulf Spill Restoration

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An adaptive watershed management assessment based on watershed investigation data.

PubMed

Kang, Min Goo; Park, Seung Woo

2015-05-01

The aim of this study was to assess the states of watersheds in South Korea and to formulate new measures to improve identified inadequacies. The study focused on the watersheds of the Han River basin and adopted an adaptive watershed management framework. Using data collected during watershed investigation projects, we analyzed the management context of the study basin and identified weaknesses in water use management, flood management, and environmental and ecosystems management in the watersheds. In addition, we conducted an interview survey to obtain experts' opinions on the possible management of watersheds in the future. The results of the assessment show that effective management of the Han River basin requires adaptive watershed management, which includes stakeholders' participation and social learning. Urbanization was the key variable in watershed management of the study basin. The results provide strong guidance for future watershed management and suggest that nonstructural measures are preferred to improve the states of the watersheds and that consistent implementation of the measures can lead to successful watershed management. The results also reveal that governance is essential for adaptive watershed management in the study basin. A special ordinance is necessary to establish governance and aid social learning. Based on the findings, a management process is proposed to support new watershed management practices. The results will be of use to policy makers and practitioners who can implement the measures recommended here in the early stages of adaptive watershed management in the Han River basin. The measures can also be applied to other river basins.

Assessment and Mmanagement of North American horseshoe crab populations, with emphasis on a multispecies framework for Delaware Bay, U.S.A. populations: Chapter 24

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millard, Michael J.; Sweka, John A.; McGowan, Conor P.; Smith, David R.

2015-01-01

The horseshoe crab fishery on the US Atlantic coast represents a compelling fishery management story for many reasons, including ecological complexity, health and human safety ramifications, and socio-economic conflicts. Knowledge of stock status and assessment and monitoring capabilities for the species have increased greatly in the last 15 years and permitted managers to make more informed harvest recommendations. Incorporating the bioenergetics needs of migratory shorebirds, which feed on horseshoe crab eggs, into the management framework for horseshoe crabs was identified as a goal, particularly in the Delaware Bay region where the birds and horseshoe crabs exhibit an important ecological interaction. In response, significant effort was invested in studying the population dynamics, migration ecology, and the ecologic relationship of a key migratory shorebird, the Red Knot, to horseshoe crabs. A suite of models was developed that linked Red Knot populations to horseshoe crab populations through a mass gain function where female spawning crab abundance determined what proportion of the migrating Red Knot population reached a critical body mass threshold. These models were incorporated in an adaptive management framework wherein optimal harvest decisions for horseshoe crab are recommended based on several resource-based and value-based variables and thresholds. The current adaptive framework represents a true multispecies management effort where additional data over time are employed to improve the predictive models and reduce parametric uncertainty. The possibility of increasing phenologic asynchrony between the two taxa in response to climate change presents a potential challenge to their ecologic interaction in Delaware Bay.

A Decentralized Compositional Framework for Dependable Decision Process in Self-Managed Cyber Physical Systems

PubMed Central

Hou, Kun-Mean; Zhang, Zhan

2017-01-01

Cyber Physical Systems (CPSs) need to interact with the changeable environment under various interferences. To provide continuous and high quality services, a self-managed CPS should automatically reconstruct itself to adapt to these changes and recover from failures. Such dynamic adaptation behavior introduces systemic challenges for CPS design, advice evaluation and decision process arrangement. In this paper, a formal compositional framework is proposed to systematically improve the dependability of the decision process. To guarantee the consistent observation of event orders for causal reasoning, this work first proposes a relative time-based method to improve the composability and compositionality of the timing property of events. Based on the relative time solution, a formal reference framework is introduced for self-managed CPSs, which includes a compositional FSM-based actor model (subsystems of CPS), actor-based advice and runtime decomposable decisions. To simplify self-management, a self-similar recursive actor interface is proposed for decision (actor) composition. We provide constraints and seven patterns for the composition of reliability and process time requirements. Further, two decentralized decision process strategies are proposed based on our framework, and we compare the reliability with the static strategy and the centralized processing strategy. The simulation results show that the one-order feedback strategy has high reliability, scalability and stability against the complexity of decision and random failure. This paper also shows a way to simplify the evaluation for dynamic system by improving the composability and compositionality of the subsystem. PMID:29120357

A Decentralized Compositional Framework for Dependable Decision Process in Self-Managed Cyber Physical Systems.

PubMed

Zhou, Peng; Zuo, Decheng; Hou, Kun-Mean; Zhang, Zhan

2017-11-09

Cyber Physical Systems (CPSs) need to interact with the changeable environment under various interferences. To provide continuous and high quality services, a self-managed CPS should automatically reconstruct itself to adapt to these changes and recover from failures. Such dynamic adaptation behavior introduces systemic challenges for CPS design, advice evaluation and decision process arrangement. In this paper, a formal compositional framework is proposed to systematically improve the dependability of the decision process. To guarantee the consistent observation of event orders for causal reasoning, this work first proposes a relative time-based method to improve the composability and compositionality of the timing property of events. Based on the relative time solution, a formal reference framework is introduced for self-managed CPSs, which includes a compositional FSM-based actor model (subsystems of CPS), actor-based advice and runtime decomposable decisions. To simplify self-management, a self-similar recursive actor interface is proposed for decision (actor) composition. We provide constraints and seven patterns for the composition of reliability and process time requirements. Further, two decentralized decision process strategies are proposed based on our framework, and we compare the reliability with the static strategy and the centralized processing strategy. The simulation results show that the one-order feedback strategy has high reliability, scalability and stability against the complexity of decision and random failure. This paper also shows a way to simplify the evaluation for dynamic system by improving the composability and compositionality of the subsystem.

Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Public Health Practice: Using Adaptive Management to Increase Adaptive Capacity and Build Resilience

PubMed Central

McDowell, Julia Z.; Luber, George

2011-01-01

Background: Climate change is expected to have a range of health impacts, some of which are already apparent. Public health adaptation is imperative, but there has been little discussion of how to increase adaptive capacity and resilience in public health systems. Objectives: We explored possible explanations for the lack of work on adaptive capacity, outline climate–health challenges that may lie outside public health’s coping range, and consider changes in practice that could increase public health’s adaptive capacity. Methods: We conducted a substantive, interdisciplinary literature review focused on climate change adaptation in public health, social learning, and management of socioeconomic systems exhibiting dynamic complexity. Discussion: There are two competing views of how public health should engage climate change adaptation. Perspectives differ on whether climate change will primarily amplify existing hazards, requiring enhancement of existing public health functions, or present categorically distinct threats requiring innovative management strategies. In some contexts, distinctly climate-sensitive health threats may overwhelm public health’s adaptive capacity. Addressing these threats will require increased emphasis on institutional learning, innovative management strategies, and new and improved tools. Adaptive management, an iterative framework that embraces uncertainty, uses modeling, and integrates learning, may be a useful approach. We illustrate its application to extreme heat in an urban setting. Conclusions: Increasing public health capacity will be necessary for certain climate–health threats. Focusing efforts to increase adaptive capacity in specific areas, promoting institutional learning, embracing adaptive management, and developing tools to facilitate these processes are important priorities and can improve the resilience of local public health systems to climate change. PMID:21997387

From data to decisions: Processing information, biases, and beliefs for improved management of natural resources and environments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glynn, Pierre D.; Voinov, Alexey A.; Shapiro, Carl D.; White, Paul A.

2017-01-01

Our different kinds of minds and types of thinking affect the ways we decide, take action, and cooperate (or not). Derived from these types of minds, innate biases, beliefs, heuristics, and values (BBHV) influence behaviors, often beneficially, when individuals or small groups face immediate, local, acute situations that they and their ancestors faced repeatedly in the past. BBHV, though, need to be recognized and possibly countered or used when facing new, complex issues or situations especially if they need to be managed for the benefit of a wider community, for the longer-term and the larger-scale. Taking BBHV into account, we explain and provide a cyclic science-infused adaptive framework for (1) gaining knowledge of complex systems and (2) improving their management. We explore how this process and framework could improve the governance of science and policy for different types of systems and issues, providing examples in the area of natural resources, hazards, and the environment. Lastly, we suggest that an “Open Traceable Accountable Policy” initiative that followed our suggested adaptive framework could beneficially complement recent Open Data/Model science initiatives.

Robustness and management adaptability in tropical rangelands: a viability-based assessment under the non-equilibrium paradigm.

PubMed

Accatino, F; Sabatier, R; De Michele, C; Ward, D; Wiegand, K; Meyer, K M

2014-08-01

Rangelands provide the main forage resource for livestock in many parts of the world, but maintaining long-term productivity and providing sufficient income for the rancher remains a challenge. One key issue is to maintain the rangeland in conditions where the rancher has the greatest possibility to adapt his/her management choices to a highly fluctuating and uncertain environment. In this study, we address management robustness and adaptability, which increase the resilience of a rangeland. After reviewing how the concept of resilience evolved in parallel to modelling views on rangelands, we present a dynamic model of rangelands to which we applied the mathematical framework of viability theory to quantify the management adaptability of the system in a stochastic environment. This quantification is based on an index that combines the robustness of the system to rainfall variability and the ability of the rancher to adjust his/her management through time. We evaluated the adaptability for four possible scenarios combining two rainfall regimes (high or low) with two herding strategies (grazers only or mixed herd). Results show that pure grazing is viable only for high-rainfall regimes, and that the use of mixed-feeder herds increases the adaptability of the management. The management is the most adaptive with mixed herds and in rangelands composed of an intermediate density of trees and grasses. In such situations, grass provides high quantities of biomass and woody plants ensure robustness to droughts. Beyond the implications for management, our results illustrate the relevance of viability theory for addressing the issue of robustness and adaptability in non-equilibrium environments.

Photos | NOAA Gulf Spill Restoration

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Mailing List | NOAA Gulf Spill Restoration

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An extensible and lightweight architecture for adaptive server applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gorton, Ian; Liu, Yan; Trivedi, Nihar

2008-07-10

Server applications augmented with behavioral adaptation logic can react to environmental changes, creating self-managing server applications with improved quality of service at runtime. However, developing adaptive server applications is challenging due to the complexity of the underlying server technologies and highly dynamic application environments. This paper presents an architecture framework, the Adaptive Server Framework (ASF), to facilitate the development of adaptive behavior for legacy server applications. ASF provides a clear separation between the implementation of adaptive behavior and the business logic of the server application. This means a server application can be extended with programmable adaptive features through the definitionmore » and implementation of control components defined in ASF. Furthermore, ASF is a lightweight architecture in that it incurs low CPU overhead and memory usage. We demonstrate the effectiveness of ASF through a case study, in which a server application dynamically determines the resolution and quality to scale an image based on the load of the server and network connection speed. The experimental evaluation demonstrates the erformance gains possible by adaptive behavior and the low overhead introduced by ASF.« less

Fitness trade-offs in pest management and intercropping with colour: an evolutionary framework and potential application

PubMed Central

Farkas, Timothy E

2015-01-01

An important modern goal of plant science research is to develop tools for agriculturalists effective at curbing yield losses to insect herbivores, but resistance evolution continuously threatens the efficacy of pest management strategies. The high-dose/refuge strategy has been employed with some success to curb pest adaptation, and has been shown to be most effective when fitness costs (fitness trade-offs) of resistance are high. Here, I use eco-evolutionary reasoning to demonstrate the general importance of fitness trade-offs for pest control, showing that strong fitness trade-offs mitigate the threat of pest adaptation, even if adaptation were to occur. I argue that novel pest management strategies evoking strong fitness trade-offs are the most likely to persist in the face of unbridled pest adaptation, and offer the manipulation of crop colours as a worked example of one potentially effective strategy against insect herbivores. PMID:26495038

Fitness trade-offs in pest management and intercropping with colour: an evolutionary framework and potential application.

PubMed

Farkas, Timothy E

2015-10-01

An important modern goal of plant science research is to develop tools for agriculturalists effective at curbing yield losses to insect herbivores, but resistance evolution continuously threatens the efficacy of pest management strategies. The high-dose/refuge strategy has been employed with some success to curb pest adaptation, and has been shown to be most effective when fitness costs (fitness trade-offs) of resistance are high. Here, I use eco-evolutionary reasoning to demonstrate the general importance of fitness trade-offs for pest control, showing that strong fitness trade-offs mitigate the threat of pest adaptation, even if adaptation were to occur. I argue that novel pest management strategies evoking strong fitness trade-offs are the most likely to persist in the face of unbridled pest adaptation, and offer the manipulation of crop colours as a worked example of one potentially effective strategy against insect herbivores.

Adapting California’s ecosystems to a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elizabeth Chornesky,; David Ackerly,; Paul Beier,; Frank Davis,; Flint, Lorraine E.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Moyle, Peter B.; Moritz, Max A.; Scoonover, Mary; Byrd, Kristin B.; Alvarez, Pelayo; Heller, Nicole E.; Micheli, Elisabeth; Weiss, Stuart

2017-01-01

Significant efforts are underway to translate improved understanding of how climate change is altering ecosystems into practical actions for sustaining ecosystem functions and benefits. We explore this transition in California, where adaptation and mitigation are advancing relatively rapidly, through four case studies that span large spatial domains and encompass diverse ecological systems, institutions, ownerships, and policies. The case studies demonstrate the context specificity of societal efforts to adapt ecosystems to climate change and involve applications of diverse scientific tools (e.g., scenario analyses, downscaled climate projections, ecological and connectivity models) tailored to specific planning and management situations (alternative energy siting, wetland management, rangeland management, open space planning). They illustrate how existing institutional and policy frameworks provide numerous opportunities to advance adaptation related to ecosystems and suggest that progress is likely to be greatest when scientific knowledge is integrated into collective planning and when supportive policies and financing enable action.

Adaptive management for soil ecosystem services.

PubMed

Birgé, Hannah E; Bevans, Rebecca A; Allen, Craig R; Angeler, David G; Baer, Sara G; Wall, Diana H

2016-12-01

Ecosystem services provided by soil include regulation of the atmosphere and climate, primary (including agricultural) production, waste processing, decomposition, nutrient conservation, water purification, erosion control, medical resources, pest control, and disease mitigation. The simultaneous production of these multiple services arises from complex interactions among diverse aboveground and belowground communities across multiple scales. When a system is mismanaged, non-linear and persistent losses in ecosystem services can arise. Adaptive management is an approach to management designed to reduce uncertainty as management proceeds. By developing alternative hypotheses, testing these hypotheses and adjusting management in response to outcomes, managers can probe dynamic mechanistic relationships among aboveground and belowground soil system components. In doing so, soil ecosystem services can be preserved and critical ecological thresholds avoided. Here, we present an adaptive management framework designed to reduce uncertainty surrounding the soil system, even when soil ecosystem services production is not the explicit management objective, so that managers can reach their management goals without undermining soil multifunctionality or contributing to an irreversible loss of soil ecosystem services. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Managing clinical integration in integrated delivery systems: a framework for action.

PubMed

Young, D W; Barrett, D

1997-01-01

An integrated delivery system (IDS) in healthcare must coordinate patient care across multiple functions, activities, and operating units. To achieve this clinical integration, senior management confronts many challenges. This paper uses a cross-functional-process (CFP) framework to discuss these challenges. There are ten CFPs that fall into three categories: planning processes (strategy formulation, program adaptation, budget formulation), organizational processes (authority and influence, client management, conflict resolution, motivation, and cultural maintenance), and measurement and reporting processes (financial and programmatic). Each process typically spans several functional units. Senior management must consider how to improve both the functioning of each CFP, as well as its "fit" with the other nine. The result can be greater clinical integration, improved cost management, and more coordinated care for enrollees.

Press Calls | NOAA Gulf Spill Restoration

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A tale of two rain gardens: Barriers and bridges to adaptive management of urban stormwater in Cleveland, Ohio.

PubMed

Chaffin, Brian C; Shuster, William D; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Furio, Brooke; Albro, Sandra L; Gardiner, Mary; Spring, MaLisa; Green, Olivia Odom

2016-12-01

Green infrastructure installations such as rain gardens and bioswales are increasingly regarded as viable tools to mitigate stormwater runoff at the parcel level. The use of adaptive management to implement and monitor green infrastructure projects as experimental attempts to manage stormwater has not been adequately explored as a way to optimize green infrastructure performance or increase social and political acceptance. Efforts to improve stormwater management through green infrastructure suffer from the complexity of overlapping jurisdictional boundaries, as well as interacting social and political forces that dictate the flow, consumption, conservation and disposal of urban wastewater flows. Within this urban milieu, adaptive management-rigorous experimentation applied as policy-can inform new wastewater management techniques such as the implementation of green infrastructure projects. In this article, we present a narrative of scientists and practitioners working together to apply an adaptive management approach to green infrastructure implementation for stormwater management in Cleveland, Ohio. In Cleveland, contextual legal requirements and environmental factors created an opportunity for government researchers, stormwater managers and community organizers to engage in the development of two distinct sets of rain gardens, each borne of unique social, economic and environmental processes. In this article we analyze social and political barriers to applying adaptive management as a framework for implementing green infrastructure experiments as policy. We conclude with a series of lessons learned and a reflection on the prospects for adaptive management to facilitate green infrastructure implementation for improved stormwater management. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An adaptive framework to differentiate receiving water quality impacts on a multi-scale level.

PubMed

Blumensaat, F; Tränckner, J; Helm, B; Kroll, S; Dirckx, G; Krebs, P

2013-01-01

The paradigm shift in recent years towards sustainable and coherent water resources management on a river basin scale has changed the subject of investigations to a multi-scale problem representing a great challenge for all actors participating in the management process. In this regard, planning engineers often face an inherent conflict to provide reliable decision support for complex questions with a minimum of effort. This trend inevitably increases the risk to base decisions upon uncertain and unverified conclusions. This paper proposes an adaptive framework for integral planning that combines several concepts (flow balancing, water quality monitoring, process modelling, multi-objective assessment) to systematically evaluate management strategies for water quality improvement. As key element, an S/P matrix is introduced to structure the differentiation of relevant 'pressures' in affected regions, i.e. 'spatial units', which helps in handling complexity. The framework is applied to a small, but typical, catchment in Flanders, Belgium. The application to the real-life case shows: (1) the proposed approach is adaptive, covers problems of different spatial and temporal scale, efficiently reduces complexity and finally leads to a transparent solution; and (2) water quality and emission-based performance evaluation must be done jointly as an emission-based performance improvement does not necessarily lead to an improved water quality status, and an assessment solely focusing on water quality criteria may mask non-compliance with emission-based standards. Recommendations derived from the theoretical analysis have been put into practice.

Expanding the prevention armamentarium portfolio: a framework for promoting HIV-Conversant Communities within a complex, adaptive epidemiological landscape.

PubMed

Burman, Christopher J; Aphane, Marota; Mtapuri, Oliver; Delobelle, Peter

2015-01-01

The article describes a design journey that culminated in an HIV-Conversant Community Framework that is now being piloted in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. The objective of the initiative is to reduce the aggregate community viral load by building capacity at multiple scales that strengthens peoples' HIV-related navigational skill sets-while simultaneously opening a 'chronic situation' schema. The framework design is based upon a transdisciplinary methodological combination that synthesises ideas and constructs from complexity science and the management sciences as a vehicle through which to re-conceptualise HIV prevention. This resulted in a prototype that included the following constructs: managing HIV-prevention in a complex, adaptive epidemiological landscape; problematising and increasing the scope of the HIV knowledge armamentarium through education that focuses on the viral load and Langerhans cells; disruptive innovation and safe-fail probes followed by the facilitation of path creations and pattern management implementation techniques. These constructs are underpinned by a 'middle-ground' prevention approach which is designed to bridge the prevention 'fault line', enabling a multi-ontology conceptualisation of the challenge to be developed. The article concludes that stepping outside of the 'ordered' epistemological parameters of the existing prevention 'messaging' mind-set towards a more systemic approach that emphasises agency, structure and social practices as a contribution to 'ending AIDS by 2030' is worthy of further attention if communities are to engage more adaptively with the dynamic HIV landscape in South Africa.

Assessing fit, interplay, and scale: Aligning governance and information for improved water management in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchhoff, C.; Dilling, L.

2011-12-01

Water managers have long experienced the challenges of managing water resources in a variable climate. However, climate change has the potential to reshape the experiential landscape by, for example, increasing the intensity and duration of droughts, shifting precipitation timing and amounts, and changing sea levels. Given the uncertainty in evaluating potential climate risks as well as future water availability and water demands, scholars suggest water managers employ more flexible and adaptive science-based management to manage uncertainty (NRC 2009). While such an approach is appropriate, for adaptive science-based management to be effective both governance and information must be concordant across three measures: fit, interplay and scale (Young 2002)(Note 1). Our research relies on interviews of state water managers and related experts (n=50) and documentary analysis in five U.S. states to understand the drivers and constraints to improving water resource planning and decision-making in a changing climate using an assessment of fit, interplay and scale as an evaluative framework. We apply this framework to assess and compare how water managers plan and respond to current or anticipated water resource challenges within each state. We hypothesize that better alignment between the data and management framework and the water resource problem improves water managers' facility to understand (via available, relevant, timely information) and respond appropriately (through institutional response mechanisms). In addition, better alignment between governance mechanisms (between the scope of the problem and identified appropriate responses) improves water management. Moreover, because many of the management challenges analyzed in this study concern present day issues with scarcity brought on by a combination of growth and drought, better alignment of fit, interplay, and scale today will enable and prepare water managers to be more successful in adapting to climate change impacts in the long-term. Note 1: For the purposes of this research, the problem of fit deals with the level of concordance between the natural and human systems while interplay involves how institutional arrangements interact both horizontally and vertically. Lastly, scale considers both spatial and temporal alignment of the physical systems and management structure. For example, to manage water resources effectively in a changing climate suggests having information that informs short-term and long-term changes and having institutional arrangements that seek understanding across temporal scales and facilitate responses based on information available (Young 2002).

Using genomics to characterize evolutionary potential for conservation of wild populations

PubMed Central

Harrisson, Katherine A; Pavlova, Alexandra; Telonis-Scott, Marina; Sunnucks, Paul

2014-01-01

Genomics promises exciting advances towards the important conservation goal of maximizing evolutionary potential, notwithstanding associated challenges. Here, we explore some of the complexity of adaptation genetics and discuss the strengths and limitations of genomics as a tool for characterizing evolutionary potential in the context of conservation management. Many traits are polygenic and can be strongly influenced by minor differences in regulatory networks and by epigenetic variation not visible in DNA sequence. Much of this critical complexity is difficult to detect using methods commonly used to identify adaptive variation, and this needs appropriate consideration when planning genomic screens, and when basing management decisions on genomic data. When the genomic basis of adaptation and future threats are well understood, it may be appropriate to focus management on particular adaptive traits. For more typical conservations scenarios, we argue that screening genome-wide variation should be a sensible approach that may provide a generalized measure of evolutionary potential that accounts for the contributions of small-effect loci and cryptic variation and is robust to uncertainty about future change and required adaptive response(s). The best conservation outcomes should be achieved when genomic estimates of evolutionary potential are used within an adaptive management framework. PMID:25553064

Building Resilience against Climate Effects—A Novel Framework to Facilitate Climate Readiness in Public Health Agencies

PubMed Central

Marinucci, Gino D.; Luber, George; Uejio, Christopher K.; Saha, Shubhayu; Hess, Jeremy J.

2014-01-01

Climate change is anticipated to have several adverse health impacts. Managing these risks to public health requires an iterative approach. As with many risk management strategies related to climate change, using modeling to project impacts, engaging a wide range of stakeholders, and regularly updating models and risk management plans with new information—hallmarks of adaptive management—are considered central tenets of effective public health adaptation. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has developed a framework, entitled Building Resilience Against Climate Effects, or BRACE, to facilitate this process for public health agencies. Its five steps are laid out here. Following the steps laid out in BRACE will enable an agency to use the best available science to project likely climate change health impacts in a given jurisdiction and prioritize interventions. Adopting BRACE will also reinforce public health’s established commitment to evidence-based practice and institutional learning, both of which will be central to successfully engaging the significant new challenges that climate change presents. PMID:24991665

Chaparral and associated ecosystems management: a 5-year research and development program

Treesearch

C. Eugene Conrad; George A. Roby; Serena C. Hunter

1986-01-01

Chaparral is the dominant vegetation in the wildlands of central and southern California. It has evolved fire adaptions that make it flammable and trigger postfire regeneration, thereby ensuring plant community rejuvenation. To provide a framework for chaparral-related research and accelerate development and demonstration of urgently needed management techniques, the...

Adaptive mesh refinement and load balancing based on multi-level block-structured Cartesian mesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misaka, Takashi; Sasaki, Daisuke; Obayashi, Shigeru

2017-11-01

We developed a framework for a distributed-memory parallel computer that enables dynamic data management for adaptive mesh refinement and load balancing. We employed simple data structure of the building cube method (BCM) where a computational domain is divided into multi-level cubic domains and each cube has the same number of grid points inside, realising a multi-level block-structured Cartesian mesh. Solution adaptive mesh refinement, which works efficiently with the help of the dynamic load balancing, was implemented by dividing cubes based on mesh refinement criteria. The framework was investigated with the Laplace equation in terms of adaptive mesh refinement, load balancing and the parallel efficiency. It was then applied to the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations to simulate a turbulent flow around a sphere. We considered wall-adaptive cube refinement where a non-dimensional wall distance y+ near the sphere is used for a criterion of mesh refinement. The result showed the load imbalance due to y+ adaptive mesh refinement was corrected by the present approach. To utilise the BCM framework more effectively, we also tested a cube-wise algorithm switching where an explicit and implicit time integration schemes are switched depending on the local Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) condition in each cube.

Model or Myopia? Exploiting Water Markets to Address Population and Drought Risks in a Changing World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, P. M.

2012-12-01

Climate change, population demands, and evolving land-use represent strong risks to the sustainable development and stability of world-wide urban water supplies. There is a growing consensus that non-structural supply management instruments such as water markets have significant potential to reduce the risks and vulnerabilities in complex urban water systems. This paper asks a common question, what are the tradeoffs for a city using water market supply instruments?. This question emerges quickly in policy and management, but its answer is deceptively difficult to attain using traditional planning tools and management frameworks. This research demonstrates new frameworks that facilitate rapid evaluation of hypotheses on the reliability, resiliency, adaptability, and cost-effectiveness of urban water supply systems. This study considers a broader exploration of the issues of "nonstationarity" and "uncertainty" in urban water planning. As we invest in new information and prediction frameworks for the coupled human-natural systems that define our water, our problem definitions (i.e., objectives, constraints, preferences, and hypotheses) themselves evolve. From a formal mathematical perspective, this means that our management problems are structurally uncertain and nonstationary (i.e., the definition of optimality changes across regions, times, and stakeholders). This uncertainty and nonstationarity in our problem definitions needs to be more explicitly acknowledged in adaptive management and integrated water resources management. This study demonstrates the potential benefits of exploring these issues in the context of a city in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) of Texas, USA determining how to use its regional water market to manage population and drought risks.

A framework for responding to coral disease outbreaks that facilitates adaptive management.

PubMed

Beeden, Roger; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Marshall, Paul A; Heron, Scott F; Willis, Bette L

2012-01-01

Predicted increases in coral disease outbreaks associated with climate change have implications for coral reef ecosystems and the people and industries that depend on them. It is critical that coral reef managers understand these implications and have the ability to assess and reduce risk, detect and contain outbreaks, and monitor and minimise impacts. Here, we present a coral disease response framework that has four core components: (1) an early warning system, (2) a tiered impact assessment program, (3) scaled management actions and (4) a communication plan. The early warning system combines predictive tools that monitor the risk of outbreaks of temperature-dependent coral diseases with in situ observations provided by a network of observers who regularly report on coral health and reef state. Verified reports of an increase in disease prevalence trigger a tiered response of more detailed impact assessment, targeted research and/or management actions. The response is scaled to the risk posed by the outbreak, which is a function of the severity and spatial extent of the impacts. We review potential management actions to mitigate coral disease impacts and facilitate recovery, considering emerging strategies unique to coral disease and more established strategies to support reef resilience. We also describe approaches to communicating about coral disease outbreaks that will address common misperceptions and raise awareness of the coral disease threat. By adopting this framework, managers and researchers can establish a community of practice and can develop response plans for the management of coral disease outbreaks based on local needs. The collaborations between managers and researchers we suggest will enable adaptive management of disease impacts following evaluating the cost-effectiveness of emerging response actions and incrementally improving our understanding of outbreak causation.

A Framework for Responding to Coral Disease Outbreaks that Facilitates Adaptive Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beeden, Roger; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; Marshall, Paul A.; Heron, Scott F.; Willis, Bette L.

2012-01-01

Predicted increases in coral disease outbreaks associated with climate change have implications for coral reef ecosystems and the people and industries that depend on them. It is critical that coral reef managers understand these implications and have the ability to assess and reduce risk, detect and contain outbreaks, and monitor and minimise impacts. Here, we present a coral disease response framework that has four core components: (1) an early warning system, (2) a tiered impact assessment program, (3) scaled management actions and (4) a communication plan. The early warning system combines predictive tools that monitor the risk of outbreaks of temperature-dependent coral diseases with in situ observations provided by a network of observers who regularly report on coral health and reef state. Verified reports of an increase in disease prevalence trigger a tiered response of more detailed impact assessment, targeted research and/or management actions. The response is scaled to the risk posed by the outbreak, which is a function of the severity and spatial extent of the impacts. We review potential management actions to mitigate coral disease impacts and facilitate recovery, considering emerging strategies unique to coral disease and more established strategies to support reef resilience. We also describe approaches to communicating about coral disease outbreaks that will address common misperceptions and raise awareness of the coral disease threat. By adopting this framework, managers and researchers can establish a community of practice and can develop response plans for the management of coral disease outbreaks based on local needs. The collaborations between managers and researchers we suggest will enable adaptive management of disease impacts following evaluating the cost-effectiveness of emerging response actions and incrementally improving our understanding of outbreak causation.

Suggest a Project | NOAA Gulf Spill Restoration

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Projects Near You Strategic Frameworks Monitoring and Adaptive Management Restoration Areas Alabama Florida the comment are acceptable); Are far off-topic (i.e., not within the scope of the NRDA); or Make

A dynamical framework for integrated corridor management.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-01-11

We develop analysis and control synthesis tools for dynamic traffic flow over networks. Our analysis : relies on exploiting monotonicity properties of the dynamics, and on adapting relevant tools from : stochastic queuing networks. We develop proport...

Using an agent-based model to examine forest management outcomes in a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA

Treesearch

Thomas A. Spies; Eric White; Alan Ager; Jeffrey D. Kline; John P. Bolte; Emily K. Platt; Keith A. Olsen; Robert J. Pabst; Ana M. G. Barros; John D. Bailey; Susan Charnley; Anita T. Morzillo; Jennifer Koch; Michelle M. Steen-Adams; Peter H. Singleton; James Sulzman; Cynthia Schwartz; Blair Csuti

2017-01-01

Fire-prone landscapes present many challenges for both managers and policy makers in developing adaptive behaviors and institutions. We used a coupled human and natural systems framework and an agent-based landscape model to examine how alternative management scenarios affect fire and ecosystem services metrics in a fire-prone multiownership landscape in the eastern...

Use of monitoring data to support conservation management and policy decisions in Micronesia.

PubMed

Montambault, Jensen Reitz; Wongbusarakum, Supin; Leberer, Trina; Joseph, Eugene; Andrew, Wayne; Castro, Fran; Nevitt, Brooke; Golbuu, Yimnang; Oldiais, Noelle W; Groves, Craig R; Kostka, Willy; Houk, Peter

2015-10-01

Adaptive management implies a continuous knowledge-based decision-making process in conservation. Yet, the coupling of scientific monitoring and management frameworks remains rare in practice because formal and informal communication pathways are lacking. We examined 4 cases in Micronesia where conservation practitioners are using new knowledge in the form of monitoring data to advance marine conservation. These cases were drawn from projects in Micronesia Challenge jurisdictions that received funding for coupled monitoring-to-management frameworks and encompassed all segments of adaptive management. Monitoring in Helen Reef, Republic of Palau, was catalyzed by coral bleaching and revealed evidence of overfishing that led to increased enforcement and outreach. In Nimpal Channel, Yap, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), monitoring the recovery of marine food resources after customary restrictions were put in place led to new, more effective enforcement approaches. Monitoring in Laolao Bay, Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, was catalyzed by observable sediment loads from poor land-use practices and resulted in actions that reduced land-based threats, particularly littering and illegal burning, and revealed additional threats from overfishing. Pohnpei (FSM) began monitoring after observed declines in grouper spawning aggregations. This data led to adjusting marine conservation area boundaries and implementing market-based size class restrictions. Two themes emerged from these cases. First, in each case monitoring was conducted in a manner relevant to the social and ecological systems and integrated into the decision-making process. Second, conservation practitioners and scientists in these cases integrated culturally appropriate stakeholder engagement throughout all phases of the adaptive management cycle. More broadly, our study suggests, when describing adaptive management, providing more details on how monitoring and management activities are linked at similar spatial scales and across similar time frames can enhance the application of knowledge. © 2015 The Authors Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

A framework for identifying water management typologies for agent based modeling of water resources and its application in the Boise River Basin, USA.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiser, K. E.; Flores, A. N.; Hillis, V.; Moroney, J.; Schneider, J.

2017-12-01

Modeling the management of water resources necessitates incorporation of complex social and hydrologic dynamics. Simulation of these socio-ecological systems requires characterization of the decision-making process of relevant actors, the mechanisms through which they exert control on the biophysical system, their ability to react and adapt to regional environmental conditions, and the plausible behaviors in response to changes in those conditions. Agent based models (ABMs) are a useful tool in simulating these complex adaptive systems because they can dynamically couple hydrological models and the behavior of decision making actors. ABMs can provide a flexible, integrated framework that can represent multi-scale interactions, and the heterogeneity of information networks and sources. However, the variability in behavior of water management actors across systems makes characterizing agent behaviors and relationships challenging. Agent typologies, or agent functional types (AFTs), group together individuals and/or agencies with similar functional roles, management objectives, and decision-making strategies. AFTs have been used to represent archetypal land managers in the agricultural and forestry sectors in large-scale socio-economic system models. A similar typology of water actors could simplify the representation of water management across river basins, and increase transferability and scaling of resulting ABMs. Here, we present a framework for identifying and classifying major water actors and show how we will link an ABM of water management to a regional hydrologic model in a western river basin. The Boise River Basin in southwest Idaho is an interesting setting to apply our AFT framework because of the diverse stakeholders and associated management objectives which include managing urban growth pressures and water supply in the face of climate change. Precipitation in the upper basin supplies 90% of the surface water used in the basin, thus managers of the reservoir system (located in the upper basin) must balance flood control for the metropolitan area with water supply for downstream agricultural and hydropower use. Identifying dominant water management typologies that include state and federal agencies will increase the transferability of water management ABMs in the western US.

The Resilience Assessment Framework: a common indicator for land management?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowie, Annette; Metternicht, Graciela; O'Connell, Deborah

2015-04-01

At the Rio+20 conference in June 2013, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reinforced their mutual interests in building linkages between biodiversity conservation, sustainable land management, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. The UNCCD sees building resilience of agro-ecosystems as a common interest that could strengthen linkages between the conventions and deliver synergies in progressing goals of each of the conventions. Furthermore, enhancing resilience of productive agro-ecosystems is fundamental to food security and sustainable development, and thus aligns with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Global Environment Facility (GEF) shares the interest of the conventions in building resilience in agro-ecosystems. Indicators of resilience are required for monitoring progress in these endeavors, application of a common indicator between the UNCCD, UNFCCC and CBD as a measure of both land-based adaptation and ecosystem resilience, could strengthen links between the conventions and increase attention to the broad benefits of improved land management. Consequently, the Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel (STAP) to the GEF commissioned the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) to produce a report reviewing the conceptual basis for resilience, and proposing an indicator approach that could meet the needs of the Conventions and the GEF for an indicator of agro-ecosystem resilience and land-based adaption. The paper presents a synthesis of scientific understanding of resilience in agro-ecosystems, reviews indicators that have been proposed, and, having concluded that none of the extant indicator approaches adequately assesses resilience of agro-ecosystems, proposes a new approach to the assessment of resilience. Recognizing that no single indicator of resilience is applicable to all agro-ecosystems, and that involvement of stakeholders is critical to discerning the critical variables to be assessed, the proposed framework uses an iterative participatory approach to characterise the system, considering also interactions across and within scales; identify the controlling variables, and assess proximity to thresholds, and adaptive capacity. The framework consists of four elements: Element A: System description; Element B Assessing the system; Element C Adaptive governance and management; Element D Participatory process. Element D is intended as a cross-cutting element, applying across Elements A to C, although Elements A and B can be applied as a desktop activity in a preliminary assessment. The results of the assessment are synthesised in "Resilience action indicators", that summarise the state of the system with respect to the need to adapt or transform. The presentation will summarise the framework and the responses of expert reviewers who identified strengths of the approach, and challenges for implementation, particularly at program and national scales. The presentation will emphasise the conceptual basis for the approach, and the role of scientists in testing, refining and operationalizing the approach.

Risk management frameworks: supporting the next generation of Murray-Darling Basin water sharing plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podger, G. M.; Cuddy, S. M.; Peeters, L.; Smith, T.; Bark, R. H.; Black, D. C.; Wallbrink, P.

2014-09-01

Water jurisdictions in Australia are required to prepare and implement water resource plans. In developing these plans the common goal is realising the best possible use of the water resources - maximising outcomes while minimising negative impacts. This requires managing the risks associated with assessing and balancing cultural, industrial, agricultural, social and environmental demands for water within a competitive and resource-limited environment. Recognising this, conformance to international risk management principles (ISO 31000:2009) have been embedded within the Murray-Darling Basin Plan. Yet, to date, there has been little strategic investment by water jurisdictions in bridging the gap between principle and practice. The ISO 31000 principles and the risk management framework that embodies them align well with an adaptive management paradigm within which to conduct water resource planning. They also provide an integrative framework for the development of workflows that link risk analysis with risk evaluation and mitigation (adaptation) scenarios, providing a transparent, repeatable and robust platform. This study, through a demonstration use case and a series of workflows, demonstrates to policy makers how these principles can be used to support the development of the next generation of water sharing plans in 2019. The workflows consider the uncertainty associated with climate and flow inputs, and model parameters on irrigation and hydropower production, meeting environmental flow objectives and recreational use of the water resource. The results provide insights to the risks associated with meeting a range of different objectives.

A conceptual framework for adaptive forest management under climate change

Treesearch

Thomas P. Holmes; Steve McNulty; James M. Vose; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Harbin Li

2014-01-01

The consensus among most scientists is that the global climate is changing in response to a rapid increase in greenhouse gas emissions over the past 150 years. This perspective has prompted research on potential changes in future forest conditions so that management interventions might be developed to protect desired ecosystem services. Some of the most significant...

European information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jol, A.; Isoard, S.

2010-09-01

Vulnerability to natural and technological disasters is increasing due to a combination of intensifying land use, increasing industrial development, further urban expansion and expanding infrastructure and also climate change. At EU level the European Commission's White Paper on adaptation to climate change (published in 2009) highlights that adaptation actions should be focused on the most vulnerable areas and communities in Europe (e.g. mountains, coastal areas, river flood prone areas, Mediterranean, Arctic). Mainstreaming of climate change into existing EU policies will be a key policy, including within the Water Framework Directive, Marine Strategy Framework Directive, Nature protection and biodiversity policies, integrated coastal zone management, other (sectoral) policies (agriculture, forestry, energy, transport, health) and disaster risk prevention. 2010 is the international year on biodiversity and the Conference of Parties of the biodiversity convention will meet in autumn 2010 (Japan) to discuss amongst other post-2010 strategies, objectives and indicators. Both within the Biodiversity Convention (CBD) and the Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) there is increasing recognition of the need for integration of biodiversity conservation into climate change mitigation and adaptation activities. Furthermore a number of European countries and also some regions have started to prepare and/or have adopted national adaptation plans or frameworks. Sharing of good practices on climate change vulnerability methods and adaptation actions is so far limited, but is essential to improve such plans, at national, sub national and local level where much of the adaptation action is already taking place and will be expanding in future, also involving increasingly the business community. The EU Clearinghouse on CC impacts, vulnerability and adaptation should address these needs and it is planned to be operational end of 2011. The EEA is expected to have a role in its development in 2010 and is likely to manage the system after 2011. The European Commission in its Communication in 2009 on disaster risk prevention also calls for improving and better sharing of data on disasters, disaster risk mapping and disaster risk management, in the context of the EU civil protection mechanism. Such information might also be linked to the planned EU Clearinghouse on climate change adaptation. The activities of EEA on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation (including disaster risk reduction) include indicators of the impacts of climate change; a regularly updated overview of national assessments and adaptation plans on the EEA web site and specific focused reports, e.g. on adaptation to the challenges of changing water resources in the Alps (2009) and on analysis of past trends in natural disasters (due in 2010) and regular expert meetings and workshops with EEA member countries. The ECAC presentation will include the latest developments in the EU Clearinghouse on adaptation and progress in relevant EEA activities.

Guiding climate change adaptation within vulnerable natural resource management systems.

PubMed

Bardsley, Douglas K; Sweeney, Susan M

2010-05-01

Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardsley, Douglas K.; Sweeney, Susan M.

2010-05-01

Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

The Large Marine Ecosystem Approach for 21st Century Ocean Health and International Sustainable Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honey, K. T.

2014-12-01

The global coastal ocean and watersheds are divided into 66 Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs), which encompass regions from river basins, estuaries, and coasts to the seaward boundaries of continental shelves and margins of major currents. Approximately 80% of global fisheries catch comes from LME waters. Ecosystem goods and services from LMEs contribute an estimated US 18-25 trillion dollars annually to the global economy in market and non-market value. The critical importance of these large-scale systems, however, is threatened by human populations and pressures, including climate change. Fortunately, there is pragmatic reason for optimism. Interdisciplinary frameworks exist, such as the Large Marine Ecosystem (LME) approach for adaptive management that can integrate both nature-centric and human-centric views into ecosystem monitoring, assessment, and adaptive management practices for long-term sustainability. Originally proposed almost 30 years ago, the LME approach rests on five modules are: (i) productivity, (ii) fish and fisheries, (iii) pollution and ecosystem health, (iv) socioeconomics, and (v) governance for iterative adaptive management at a large, international scale of 200,000 km2 or greater. The Global Environment Facility (GEF), World Bank, and United Nations agencies recognize and support the LME approach—as evidenced by over 3.15 billion in financial assistance to date for LME projects. This year of 2014 is an exciting milestone in LME history, after 20 years of the United Nations and GEF organizations adopting LMEs as a unit for ecosystem-based approaches to management. The LME approach, however, is not perfect. Nor is it immutable. Similar to the adaptive management framework it propones, the LME approach itself must adapt to new and emerging 21st Century technologies, science, and realities. The LME approach must further consider socioeconomics and governance. Within the socioeconomics module alone, several trillion-dollar opportunities exist for interdisciplinary integration with best practices in: (i) water-energy nexus infrastructure; (ii) responsible tourism; and (iii) open data innovations.

Development of a technical assistance framework for building organizational capacity of health programs in resource-limited settings.

PubMed

Reyes, E Michael; Sharma, Anjali; Thomas, Kate K; Kuehn, Chuck; Morales, José Rafael

2014-09-17

Little information exists on the technical assistance needs of local indigenous organizations charged with managing HIV care and treatment programs funded by the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). This paper describes the methods used to adapt the Primary Care Assessment Tool (PCAT) framework, which has successfully strengthened HIV primary care services in the US, into one that could strengthen the capacity of local partners to deliver priority health programs in resource-constrained settings by identifying their specific technical assistance needs. Qualitative methods and inductive reasoning approaches were used to conceptualize and adapt the new Clinical Assessment for Systems Strengthening (ClASS) framework. Stakeholder interviews, comparisons of existing assessment tools, and a pilot test helped determine the overall ClASS framework for use in low-resource settings. The framework was further refined one year post-ClASS implementation. Stakeholder interviews, assessment of existing tools, a pilot process and the one-year post- implementation assessment informed the adaptation of the ClASS framework for assessing and strengthening technical and managerial capacities of health programs at three levels: international partner, local indigenous partner, and local partner treatment facility. The PCAT focus on organizational strengths and systems strengthening was retained and implemented in the ClASS framework and approach. A modular format was chosen to allow the use of administrative, fiscal and clinical modules in any combination and to insert new modules as needed by programs. The pilot led to refined pre-visit planning, informed review team composition, increased visit duration, and restructured modules. A web-based toolkit was developed to capture three years of experiential learning; this kit can also be used for independent implementation of the ClASS framework. A systematic adaptation process has produced a qualitative framework that can inform implementation strategies in support of country led HIV care and treatment programs. The framework, as a well-received iterative process focused on technical assistance, may have broader utility in other global programs.

Informing Environmental Water Management Decisions: Using Conditional Probability Networks to Address the Information Needs of Planning and Implementation Cycles.

PubMed

Horne, Avril C; Szemis, Joanna M; Webb, J Angus; Kaur, Simranjit; Stewardson, Michael J; Bond, Nick; Nathan, Rory

2018-03-01

One important aspect of adaptive management is the clear and transparent documentation of hypotheses, together with the use of predictive models (complete with any assumptions) to test those hypotheses. Documentation of such models can improve the ability to learn from management decisions and supports dialog between stakeholders. A key challenge is how best to represent the existing scientific knowledge to support decision-making. Such challenges are currently emerging in the field of environmental water management in Australia, where managers are required to prioritize the delivery of environmental water on an annual basis, using a transparent and evidence-based decision framework. We argue that the development of models of ecological responses to environmental water use needs to support both the planning and implementation cycles of adaptive management. Here we demonstrate an approach based on the use of Conditional Probability Networks to translate existing ecological knowledge into quantitative models that include temporal dynamics to support adaptive environmental flow management. It equally extends to other applications where knowledge is incomplete, but decisions must still be made.

Informing Environmental Water Management Decisions: Using Conditional Probability Networks to Address the Information Needs of Planning and Implementation Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horne, Avril C.; Szemis, Joanna M.; Webb, J. Angus; Kaur, Simranjit; Stewardson, Michael J.; Bond, Nick; Nathan, Rory

2018-03-01

One important aspect of adaptive management is the clear and transparent documentation of hypotheses, together with the use of predictive models (complete with any assumptions) to test those hypotheses. Documentation of such models can improve the ability to learn from management decisions and supports dialog between stakeholders. A key challenge is how best to represent the existing scientific knowledge to support decision-making. Such challenges are currently emerging in the field of environmental water management in Australia, where managers are required to prioritize the delivery of environmental water on an annual basis, using a transparent and evidence-based decision framework. We argue that the development of models of ecological responses to environmental water use needs to support both the planning and implementation cycles of adaptive management. Here we demonstrate an approach based on the use of Conditional Probability Networks to translate existing ecological knowledge into quantitative models that include temporal dynamics to support adaptive environmental flow management. It equally extends to other applications where knowledge is incomplete, but decisions must still be made.

Expanding the prevention armamentarium portfolio: A framework for promoting HIV-Conversant Communities within a complex, adaptive epidemiological landscape

PubMed Central

Burman, Christopher J.; Aphane, Marota; Mtapuri, Oliver; Delobelle, Peter

2015-01-01

Abstract The article describes a design journey that culminated in an HIV-Conversant Community Framework that is now being piloted in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. The objective of the initiative is to reduce the aggregate community viral load by building capacity at multiple scales that strengthens peoples' HIV-related navigational skill sets—while simultaneously opening a ‘chronic situation’ schema. The framework design is based upon a transdisciplinary methodological combination that synthesises ideas and constructs from complexity science and the management sciences as a vehicle through which to re-conceptualise HIV prevention. This resulted in a prototype that included the following constructs: managing HIV-prevention in a complex, adaptive epidemiological landscape; problematising and increasing the scope of the HIV knowledge armamentarium through education that focuses on the viral load and Langerhans cells; disruptive innovation and safe-fail probes followed by the facilitation of path creations and pattern management implementation techniques. These constructs are underpinned by a ‘middle-ground’ prevention approach which is designed to bridge the prevention ‘fault line’, enabling a multi-ontology conceptualisation of the challenge to be developed. The article concludes that stepping outside of the ‘ordered’ epistemological parameters of the existing prevention ‘messaging’ mind-set towards a more systemic approach that emphasises agency, structure and social practices as a contribution to ‘ending AIDS by 2030’ is worthy of further attention if communities are to engage more adaptively with the dynamic HIV landscape in South Africa. PMID:25888256

Organizational capacity needs of consumer-run organizations.

PubMed

Wituk, Scott; Vu, Chi C; Brown, Louis D; Meissen, Greg

2008-05-01

Consumer-run organizations (CROs) are self-help oriented organizations that are run entirely by consumers (people who use or have used mental health services). The current study utilizes an organizational capacity framework to explore the needs of operating CROs. This framework includes four core capacity areas: (1) technical, (2) management, (3) leadership, and (4) adaptive capacity. An analysis reveals that the greatest organizational needs are related to technical and management capacities. Implications are discussed in terms of strategies and activities that CRO leaders and mental health professionals and administrators can use to strengthen the organizational capacity of CROs in their community.

Putting Climate Adaptation on the Map: Developing Spatial Management Strategies for Whitebark Pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

PubMed

Ireland, Kathryn B; Hansen, Andrew J; Keane, Robert E; Legg, Kristin; Gump, Robert L

2018-06-01

Natural resource managers face the need to develop strategies to adapt to projected future climates. Few existing climate adaptation frameworks prescribe where to place management actions to be most effective under anticipated future climate conditions. We developed an approach to spatially allocate climate adaptation actions and applied the method to whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). WBP is expected to be vulnerable to climate-mediated shifts in suitable habitat, pests, pathogens, and fire. We spatially prioritized management actions aimed at mitigating climate impacts to WBP under two management strategies: (1) current management and (2) climate-informed management. The current strategy reflected management actions permissible under existing policy and access constraints. Our goal was to understand how consideration of climate might alter the placement of management actions, so the climate-informed strategies did not include these constraints. The spatial distribution of actions differed among the current and climate-informed management strategies, with 33-60% more wilderness area prioritized for action under climate-informed management. High priority areas for implementing management actions include the 1-8% of the GYE where current and climate-informed management agreed, since this is where actions are most likely to be successful in the long-term and where current management permits implementation. Areas where climate-informed strategies agreed with one another but not with current management (6-22% of the GYE) are potential locations for experimental testing of management actions. Our method for spatial climate adaptation planning is applicable to any species for which information regarding climate vulnerability and climate-mediated risk factors is available.

Putting Climate Adaptation on the Map: Developing Spatial Management Strategies for Whitebark Pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ireland, Kathryn B.; Hansen, Andrew J.; Keane, Robert E.; Legg, Kristin; Gump, Robert L.

2018-06-01

Natural resource managers face the need to develop strategies to adapt to projected future climates. Few existing climate adaptation frameworks prescribe where to place management actions to be most effective under anticipated future climate conditions. We developed an approach to spatially allocate climate adaptation actions and applied the method to whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). WBP is expected to be vulnerable to climate-mediated shifts in suitable habitat, pests, pathogens, and fire. We spatially prioritized management actions aimed at mitigating climate impacts to WBP under two management strategies: (1) current management and (2) climate-informed management. The current strategy reflected management actions permissible under existing policy and access constraints. Our goal was to understand how consideration of climate might alter the placement of management actions, so the climate-informed strategies did not include these constraints. The spatial distribution of actions differed among the current and climate-informed management strategies, with 33-60% more wilderness area prioritized for action under climate-informed management. High priority areas for implementing management actions include the 1-8% of the GYE where current and climate-informed management agreed, since this is where actions are most likely to be successful in the long-term and where current management permits implementation. Areas where climate-informed strategies agreed with one another but not with current management (6-22% of the GYE) are potential locations for experimental testing of management actions. Our method for spatial climate adaptation planning is applicable to any species for which information regarding climate vulnerability and climate-mediated risk factors is available.

Framework for managing mycotoxin risks in the food industry.

PubMed

Baker, Robert C; Ford, Randall M; Helander, Mary E; Marecki, Janusz; Natarajan, Ramesh; Ray, Bonnie

2014-12-01

We propose a methodological framework for managing mycotoxin risks in the food processing industry. Mycotoxin contamination is a well-known threat to public health that has economic significance for the food processing industry; it is imperative to address mycotoxin risks holistically, at all points in the procurement, processing, and distribution pipeline, by tracking the relevant data, adopting best practices, and providing suitable adaptive controls. The proposed framework includes (i) an information and data repository, (ii) a collaborative infrastructure with analysis and simulation tools, (iii) standardized testing and acceptance sampling procedures, and (iv) processes that link the risk assessments and testing results to the sourcing, production, and product release steps. The implementation of suitable acceptance sampling protocols for mycotoxin testing is considered in some detail.

The General Adaptation Syndrome: A Foundation for the Concept of Periodization.

PubMed

Cunanan, Aaron J; DeWeese, Brad H; Wagle, John P; Carroll, Kevin M; Sausaman, Robert; Hornsby, W Guy; Haff, G Gregory; Triplett, N Travis; Pierce, Kyle C; Stone, Michael H

2018-04-01

Recent reviews have attempted to refute the efficacy of applying Selye's general adaptation syndrome (GAS) as a conceptual framework for the training process. Furthermore, the criticisms involved are regularly used as the basis for arguments against the periodization of training. However, these perspectives fail to consider the entirety of Selye's work, the evolution of his model, and the broad applications he proposed. While it is reasonable to critically evaluate any paradigm, critics of the GAS have yet to dismantle the link between stress and adaptation. Disturbance to the state of an organism is the driving force for biological adaptation, which is the central thesis of the GAS model and the primary basis for its application to the athlete's training process. Despite its imprecisions, the GAS has proven to be an instructive framework for understanding the mechanistic process of providing a training stimulus to induce specific adaptations that result in functional enhancements. Pioneers of modern periodization have used the GAS as a framework for the management of stress and fatigue to direct adaptation during sports training. Updates to the periodization concept have retained its founding constructs while explicitly calling for scientifically based, evidence-driven practice suited to the individual. Thus, the purpose of this review is to provide greater clarity on how the GAS serves as an appropriate mechanistic model to conceptualize the periodization of training.

Multispecies modeling for adaptive management of horseshoe crabs and red knots in the Delaware Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Smith, David; Sweka, John A.; Martin, Julien; Nichols, James D.; Wong, Richard; Lyons, James E.; Niles, Lawrence J.; Kalasz, Kevin; Brust, Jeffrey; Klopfer, Michelle; Spear, Braddock

2011-01-01

Adaptive management requires that predictive models be explicit and transparent to improve decisions by comparing management actions, directing further research and monitoring, and facilitating learning. The rufa subspecies of red knots (Calidris canutus rufa), which has recently exhibited steep population declines, relies on horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) eggs as their primary food source during stopover in Delaware Bay during spring migration. We present a model with two different parameterizations for use in the adaptive management of horseshoe crab harvests in the Delaware Bay that links red knot mass gain, annual survival, and fecundity to horseshoe crab dynamics. The models reflect prevailing hypotheses regarding ecological links between these two species. When reported crab harvest from 1998 to 2008 was applied, projections corresponded to the observed red knot population abundances depending on strengths of the demographic relationship between these species. We compared different simulated horseshoe crab harvest strategies to evaluate whether, given this model, horseshoe crab harvest management can affect red knot conservation and found that restricting harvest can benefit red knot populations. Our model is the first to explicitly and quantitatively link these two species and will be used within an adaptive management framework to manage the Delaware Bay system and learn more about the specific nature of the linkage between the two species.

A study of an adaptive replication framework for orchestrated composite web services.

PubMed

Mohamed, Marwa F; Elyamany, Hany F; Nassar, Hamed M

2013-01-01

Replication is considered one of the most important techniques to improve the Quality of Services (QoS) of published Web Services. It has achieved impressive success in managing resource sharing and usage in order to moderate the energy consumed in IT environments. For a robust and successful replication process, attention should be paid to suitable time as well as the constraints and capabilities in which the process runs. The replication process is time-consuming since outsourcing some new replicas into other hosts is lengthy. Furthermore, nowadays, most of the business processes that might be implemented over the Web are composed of multiple Web services working together in two main styles: Orchestration and Choreography. Accomplishing a replication over such business processes is another challenge due to the complexity and flexibility involved. In this paper, we present an adaptive replication framework for regular and orchestrated composite Web services. The suggested framework includes a number of components for detecting unexpected and unhappy events that might occur when consuming the original published web services including failure or overloading. It also includes a specific replication controller to manage the replication process and select the best host that would encapsulate a new replica. In addition, it includes a component for predicting the incoming load in order to decrease the time needed for outsourcing new replicas, enhancing the performance greatly. A simulation environment has been created to measure the performance of the suggested framework. The results indicate that adaptive replication with prediction scenario is the best option for enhancing the performance of the replication process in an online business environment.

Individual differences in political ideology are effects of adaptive error management.

PubMed

Petersen, Michael Bang; Aarøe, Lene

2014-06-01

We apply error management theory to the analysis of individual differences in the negativity bias and political ideology. Using principles from evolutionary psychology, we propose a coherent theoretical framework for understanding (1) why individuals differ in their political ideology and (2) the conditions under which these individual differences influence and fail to influence the political choices people make.

US strategy for forest management adaptation to climate change: building a framework for decision making

Treesearch

V. Alaric Sample; Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson

2014-01-01

This paper describes methods developed to (1) assess current risks, vulnerabilities, and gaps in knowledge; (2) engage internal agency resources and external partners in the development of options and solutions; and (3) manage forest resources for resilience, not just in terms of natural ecosystems but in affected human communities as well. We describe an approach...

Wildlife adaptations and management in eastside interior forests with mixed severity fire regimes.

Treesearch

John F. Lehmkuhl

2004-01-01

Little is known about the effects of mixed severity fire on wildlife, but a population viability analysis framework that considers habitat quantity and quality, species life history, and species population structure can be used to analyze management options. Landscape-scale habitat patterns under a mixed severity fire regime are a mosaic of compositional and structural...

An ontological knowledge framework for adaptive medical workflow.

PubMed

Dang, Jiangbo; Hedayati, Amir; Hampel, Ken; Toklu, Candemir

2008-10-01

As emerging technologies, semantic Web and SOA (Service-Oriented Architecture) allow BPMS (Business Process Management System) to automate business processes that can be described as services, which in turn can be used to wrap existing enterprise applications. BPMS provides tools and methodologies to compose Web services that can be executed as business processes and monitored by BPM (Business Process Management) consoles. Ontologies are a formal declarative knowledge representation model. It provides a foundation upon which machine understandable knowledge can be obtained, and as a result, it makes machine intelligence possible. Healthcare systems can adopt these technologies to make them ubiquitous, adaptive, and intelligent, and then serve patients better. This paper presents an ontological knowledge framework that covers healthcare domains that a hospital encompasses-from the medical or administrative tasks, to hospital assets, medical insurances, patient records, drugs, and regulations. Therefore, our ontology makes our vision of personalized healthcare possible by capturing all necessary knowledge for a complex personalized healthcare scenario involving patient care, insurance policies, and drug prescriptions, and compliances. For example, our ontology facilitates a workflow management system to allow users, from physicians to administrative assistants, to manage, even create context-aware new medical workflows and execute them on-the-fly.

Horizon: The Portable, Scalable, and Reusable Framework for Developing Automated Data Management and Product Generation Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, T.; Alarcon, C.; Quach, N. T.

2014-12-01

Capture, curate, and analysis are the typical activities performed at any given Earth Science data center. Modern data management systems must be adaptable to heterogeneous science data formats, scalable to meet the mission's quality of service requirements, and able to manage the life-cycle of any given science data product. Designing a scalable data management doesn't happen overnight. It takes countless hours of refining, refactoring, retesting, and re-architecting. The Horizon data management and workflow framework, developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, is a portable, scalable, and reusable framework for developing high-performance data management and product generation workflow systems to automate data capturing, data curation, and data analysis activities. The NASA's Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center (PO.DAAC)'s Data Management and Archive System (DMAS) is its core data infrastructure that handles capturing and distribution of hundreds of thousands of satellite observations each day around the clock. DMAS is an application of the Horizon framework. The NASA Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS) is NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS)'s solution for making high-resolution global imageries available to the science communities. The Imagery Exchange (TIE), an application of the Horizon framework, is a core subsystem for GIBS responsible for data capturing and imagery generation automation to support the EOSDIS' 12 distributed active archive centers and 17 Science Investigator-led Processing Systems (SIPS). This presentation discusses our ongoing effort in refining, refactoring, retesting, and re-architecting the Horizon framework to enable data-intensive science and its applications.

IVHM Framework for Intelligent Integration for Vehicle Health Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paris, Deidre; Trevino, Luis C.; Watson, Michael D.

2005-01-01

Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) systems for aerospace vehicles, is the process of assessing, preserving, and restoring system functionality across flight and techniques with sensor and communication technologies for spacecraft that can generate responses through detection, diagnosis, reasoning, and adapt to system faults in support of Integrated Intelligent Vehicle Management (IIVM). These real-time responses allow the IIVM to modify the affected vehicle subsystem(s) prior to a catastrophic event. Furthermore, this framework integrates technologies which can provide a continuous, intelligent, and adaptive health state of a vehicle and use this information to improve safety and reduce costs of operations. Recent investments in avionics, health management, and controls have been directed towards IIVM. As this concept has matured, it has become clear that IIVM requires the same sensors and processing capabilities as the real-time avionics functions to support diagnosis of subsystem problems. New sensors have been proposed, in addition to augment the avionics sensors to support better system monitoring and diagnostics. As the designs have been considered, a synergy has been realized where the real-time avionics can utilize sensors proposed for diagnostics and prognostics to make better real-time decisions in response to detected failures. IIVM provides for a single system allowing modularity of functions and hardware across the vehicle. The framework that supports IIVM consists of 11 major on-board functions necessary to fully manage a space vehicle maintaining crew safety and mission objectives. These systems include the following: Guidance and Navigation; Communications and Tracking; Vehicle Monitoring; Information Transport and Integration; Vehicle Diagnostics; Vehicle Prognostics; Vehicle Mission Planning, Automated Repair and Replacement; Vehicle Control; Human Computer Interface; and Onboard Verification and Validation. Furthermore, the presented framework provides complete vehicle management which not only allows for increased crew safety and mission success through new intelligence capabilities, but also yields a mechanism for more efficient vehicle operations.

Definition and use of Solution-focused Sustainability Assessment: A novel approach to generate, explore and decide on sustainable solutions for wicked problems.

PubMed

Zijp, Michiel C; Posthuma, Leo; Wintersen, Arjen; Devilee, Jeroen; Swartjes, Frank A

2016-05-01

This paper introduces Solution-focused Sustainability Assessment (SfSA), provides practical guidance formatted as a versatile process framework, and illustrates its utility for solving a wicked environmental management problem. Society faces complex and increasingly wicked environmental problems for which sustainable solutions are sought. Wicked problems are multi-faceted, and deriving of a management solution requires an approach that is participative, iterative, innovative, and transparent in its definition of sustainability and translation to sustainability metrics. We suggest to add the use of a solution-focused approach. The SfSA framework is collated from elements from risk assessment, risk governance, adaptive management and sustainability assessment frameworks, expanded with the 'solution-focused' paradigm as recently proposed in the context of risk assessment. The main innovation of this approach is the broad exploration of solutions upfront in assessment projects. The case study concerns the sustainable management of slightly contaminated sediments continuously formed in ditches in rural, agricultural areas. This problem is wicked, as disposal of contaminated sediment on adjacent land is potentially hazardous to humans, ecosystems and agricultural products. Non-removal would however reduce drainage capacity followed by increased risks of flooding, while contaminated sediment removal followed by offsite treatment implies high budget costs and soil subsidence. Application of the steps in the SfSA-framework served in solving this problem. Important elements were early exploration of a wide 'solution-space', stakeholder involvement from the onset of the assessment, clear agreements on the risk and sustainability metrics of the problem and on the interpretation and decision procedures, and adaptive management. Application of the key elements of the SfSA approach eventually resulted in adoption of a novel sediment management policy. The stakeholder participation and the intensive communication throughout the project resulted in broad support for both the scientific approaches and results, as well as for policy implementation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive optimization as a design and management methodology for coal-mining enterprise in uncertain and volatile market environment - the conceptual framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikhalchenko, V. V.; Rubanik, Yu T.

2016-10-01

The work is devoted to the problem of cost-effective adaptation of coal mines to the volatile and uncertain market conditions. Conceptually it can be achieved through alignment of the dynamic characteristics of the coal mining system and power spectrum of market demand for coal product. In practical terms, this ensures the viability and competitiveness of coal mines. Transformation of dynamic characteristics is to be done by changing the structure of production system as well as corporate, logistics and management processes. The proposed methods and algorithms of control are aimed at the development of the theoretical foundations of adaptive optimization as basic methodology for coal mine enterprise management in conditions of high variability and uncertainty of economic and natural environment. Implementation of the proposed methodology requires a revision of the basic principles of open coal mining enterprises design.

Assessment of a Bayesian Belief Network-GIS framework as a practical tool to support marine planning.

PubMed

Stelzenmüller, V; Lee, J; Garnacho, E; Rogers, S I

2010-10-01

For the UK continental shelf we developed a Bayesian Belief Network-GIS framework to visualise relationships between cumulative human pressures, sensitive marine landscapes and landscape vulnerability, to assess the consequences of potential marine planning objectives, and to map uncertainty-related changes in management measures. Results revealed that the spatial assessment of footprints and intensities of human activities had more influence on landscape vulnerabilities than the type of landscape sensitivity measure used. We addressed questions regarding consequences of potential planning targets, and necessary management measures with spatially-explicit assessment of their consequences. We conclude that the BN-GIS framework is a practical tool allowing for the visualisation of relationships, the spatial assessment of uncertainty related to spatial management scenarios, the engagement of different stakeholder views, and enables a quick update of new spatial data and relationships. Ultimately, such BN-GIS based tools can support the decision-making process used in adaptive marine management. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate-Smart Design for Ecosystem Management: A Test Application for Coral Reefs.

PubMed

West, Jordan M; Courtney, Catherine A; Hamilton, Anna T; Parker, Britt A; Julius, Susan H; Hoffman, Jennie; Koltes, Karen H; MacGowan, Petra

2017-01-01

The interactive and cumulative impacts of climate change on natural resources such as coral reefs present numerous challenges for conservation planning and management. Climate change adaptation is complex due to climate-stressor interactions across multiple spatial and temporal scales. This leaves decision makers worldwide faced with local, regional, and global-scale threats to ecosystem processes and services, occurring over time frames that require both near-term and long-term planning. Thus there is a need for structured approaches to adaptation planning that integrate existing methods for vulnerability assessment with design and evaluation of effective adaptation responses. The Corals and Climate Adaptation Planning project of the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force seeks to develop guidance for improving coral reef management through tailored application of a climate-smart approach. This approach is based on principles from a recently-published guide which provides a framework for adopting forward-looking goals, based on assessing vulnerabilities to climate change and applying a structured process to design effective adaptation strategies. Work presented in this paper includes: (1) examination of the climate-smart management cycle as it relates to coral reefs; (2) a compilation of adaptation strategies for coral reefs drawn from a comprehensive review of the literature; (3) in-depth demonstration of climate-smart design for place-based crafting of robust adaptation actions; and (4) feedback from stakeholders on the perceived usefulness of the approach. We conclude with a discussion of lessons-learned on integrating climate-smart design into real-world management planning processes and a call from stakeholders for an "adaptation design tool" that is now under development.

Compassionate listening - managing psychological trauma in refugees.

PubMed

Gardiner, Joanne; Walker, Kate

2010-04-01

The physical and psychosocial effects of trauma in refugees are wide ranging and long lasting. They can affect symptom presentation, the patient-doctor relationship and management of refugee victims of trauma. This article discusses how refugees survivors of trauma may present to the general practitioner and gives an approach to psychological assessment and management. A strong therapeutic relationship built by patient led, sensitive assessment over time is the foundation to care. A management framework based on trauma recovery stages and adapted for general practice, is presented.

Systematic, Multimethod Assessment of Adaptations Across Four Diverse Health Systems Interventions.

PubMed

Rabin, Borsika A; McCreight, Marina; Battaglia, Catherine; Ayele, Roman; Burke, Robert E; Hess, Paul L; Frank, Joseph W; Glasgow, Russell E

2018-01-01

Many health outcomes and implementation science studies have demonstrated the importance of tailoring evidence-based care interventions to local context to improve fit. By adapting to local culture, history, resources, characteristics, and priorities, interventions are more likely to lead to improved outcomes. However, it is unclear how best to adapt evidence-based programs and promising innovations. There are few guides or examples of how to best categorize or assess health-care adaptations, and even fewer that are brief and practical for use by non-researchers. This study describes the importance and potential of assessing adaptations before, during, and after the implementation of health systems interventions. We present a promising multilevel and multimethod approach developed and being applied across four different health systems interventions. Finally, we discuss implications and opportunities for future research. The four case studies are diverse in the conditions addressed, interventions, and implementation strategies. They include two nurse coordinator-based transition of care interventions, a data and training-driven multimodal pain management project, and a cardiovascular patient-reported outcomes project, all of which are using audit and feedback. We used the same modified adaptation framework to document changes made to the interventions and implementation strategies. To create the modified framework, we started with the adaptation and modification model developed by Stirman and colleagues and expanded it by adding concepts from the RE-AIM framework. Our assessments address the intuitive domains of Who, How, When, What, and Why to classify and organize adaptations. For each case study, we discuss how the modified framework was operationalized, the multiple methods used to collect data, results to date and approaches utilized for data analysis. These methods include a real-time tracking system and structured interviews at key times during the intervention. We provide descriptive data on the types and categories of adaptations made and discuss lessons learned. The multimethod approaches demonstrate utility across diverse health systems interventions. The modified adaptations model adequately captures adaptations across the various projects and content areas. We recommend systematic documentation of adaptations in future clinical and public health research and have made our assessment materials publicly available.

Shifts in fisheries management: adapting to regime shifts

PubMed Central

King, Jacquelynne R.; McFarlane, Gordon A.; Punt, André E.

2015-01-01

For many years, fisheries management was based on optimizing yield and maintaining a target biomass, with little regard given to low-frequency environmental forcing. However, this policy was often unsuccessful. In the last two to three decades, fisheries science and management have undergone a shift towards balancing sustainable yield with conservation, with the goal of including ecosystem considerations in decision-making frameworks. Scientific understanding of low-frequency climate–ocean variability, which is manifested as ecosystem regime shifts and states, has led to attempts to incorporate these shifts and states into fisheries assessment and management. To date, operationalizing these attempts to provide tactical advice has met with limited success. We review efforts to incorporate regime shifts and states into the assessment and management of fisheries resources, propose directions for future investigation and outline a potential framework to include regime shifts and changes in ecosystem states into fisheries management.

Water Hyacinth in China: A Sustainability Science-Based Management Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Jianbo; Wu, Jianguo; Fu, Zhihui; Zhu, Lei

2007-12-01

The invasion of water hyacinth ( Eichhornia crassipes) has resulted in enormous ecological and economic consequences worldwide. Although the spread of this weed in Africa, Australia, and North America has been well documented, its invasion in China is yet to be fully documented. Here we report that since its introduction about seven decades ago, water hyacinth has infested many water bodies across almost half of China’s territory, causing a decline of native biodiversity, alteration of ecosystem services, deterioration of aquatic environments, and spread of diseases affecting human health. Water hyacinth infestations have also led to enormous economic losses in China by impeding water flows, paralyzing navigation, and damaging irrigation and hydroelectricity facilities. To effectively control the rampage of water hyacinth in China, we propose a sustainability science-based management framework that explicitly incorporates principles from landscape ecology and Integrated Pest Management. This framework emphasizes multiple-scale long-term monitoring and research, integration among different control techniques, combination of control with utilization, and landscape-level adaptive management. Sustainability science represents a new, transdisciplinary paradigm that integrates scientific research, technological innovation, and socioeconomic development of particular regions. Our proposed management framework is aimed to broaden the currently dominant biological control-centered view in China and to illustrate how sustainability science can be used to guide the research and management of water hyacinth.

Learning and adaptation in the management of waterfowl harvests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.

2011-01-01

A formal framework for the adaptive management of waterfowl harvests was adopted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in 1995. The process admits competing models of waterfowl population dynamics and harvest impacts, and relies on model averaging to compute optimal strategies for regulating harvest. Model weights, reflecting the relative ability of the alternative models to predict changes in population size, are used in the model averaging and are updated each year based on a comparison of model predictions and observations of population size. Since its inception the adaptive harvest program has focused principally on mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), which constitute a large portion of the U.S. waterfowl harvest. Four competing models, derived from a combination of two survival and two reproductive hypotheses, were originally assigned equal weights. In the last year of available information (2007), model weights favored the weakly density-dependent reproductive hypothesis over the strongly density-dependent one, and the additive mortality hypothesis over the compensatory one. The change in model weights led to a more conservative harvesting policy than what was in effect in the early years of the program. Adaptive harvest management has been successful in many ways, but nonetheless has exposed the difficulties in defining management objectives, in predicting and regulating harvests, and in coping with the tradeoffs inherent in managing multiple waterfowl stocks exposed to a common harvest. The key challenge now facing managers is whether adaptive harvest management as an institution can be sufficiently adaptive, and whether the knowledge and experience gained from the process can be reflected in higher-level policy decisions.

Facilitating adaptive management in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed through the use of online decision support tools

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mullinx, Cassandra; Phillips, Scott; Shenk, Kelly; Hearn, Paul; Devereux, Olivia

2009-01-01

The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is attempting to more strategically implement management actions to improve the health of the Nation’s largest estuary. In 2007 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) CBP office began a joint effort to develop a suite of Internetaccessible decision-support tools and to help meet the needs of CBP partners to improve water quality and habitat conditions in the Chesapeake Bay and its watersheds. An adaptive management framework is being used to provide a structured decision process for information and individual tools needed to implement and assess practices to improve the condition of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The Chesapeake Online Adaptive Support Toolkit (COAST) is a collection of web-based analytical tools and information, organized in an adaptive management framework, intended to aid decisionmakers in protecting and restoring the integrity of the Bay ecosystem. The initial version of COAST is focused on water quality issues. During early and mid- 2008, initial ideas for COAST were shared and discussed with various CBP partners and other potential user groups. At these meetings, test cases were selected to help improve understanding of the types of information and analytical functionality that would be most useful for specific partners’ needs. These discussions added considerable knowledge about the nature of decisionmaking for Federal, State, local and nongovernmental partners. Version 1.0 of COAST, released in early winter of 2008, will be further reviewed to determine improvements needed to address implementation and assessment of water quality practices. Future versions of COAST may address other aspects of ecosystem restoration, including restoration of habitat and living resources and maintaining watershed health.

Building capacity for water, sanitation, and hygiene programming: Training evaluation theory applied to CLTS management training in Kenya.

PubMed

Crocker, Jonny; Shields, Katherine F; Venkataramanan, Vidya; Saywell, Darren; Bartram, Jamie

2016-10-01

Training and capacity building are long established critical components of global water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) policies, strategies, and programs. Expanding capacity building support for WaSH in developing countries is one of the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals. There are many training evaluation methods and tools available. However, training evaluations in WaSH have been infrequent, have often not utilized these methods and tools, and have lacked rigor. We developed a conceptual framework for evaluating training in WaSH by reviewing and adapting concepts from literature. Our framework includes three target outcomes: learning, individual performance, and improved programming; and two sets of influences: trainee and context factors. We applied the framework to evaluate a seven-month community-led total sanitation (CLTS) management training program delivered to 42 government officials in Kenya from September 2013 to May 2014. Trainees were given a pre-training questionnaire and were interviewed at two weeks and seven months after initial training. We qualitatively analyzed the data using our conceptual framework. The training program resulted in trainees learning the CLTS process and new skills, and improving their individual performance through application of advocacy, partnership, and supervision soft skills. The link from trainees' performance to improved programming was constrained by resource limitations and pre-existing rigidity of trainees' organizations. Training-over-time enhanced outcomes and enabled trainees to overcome constraints in their work. Training in soft skills is relevant to managing public health programs beyond WaSH. We make recommendations on how training programs can be targeted and adapted to improve outcomes. Our conceptual framework can be used as a tool both for planning and evaluating training programs in WaSH. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A bottom-up, vulnerability-based framework for identifying the adaptive capacity of water resources systems in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Culley, Sam; Noble, Stephanie; Timbs, Michael; Yates, Adam; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Maier, Holger; Westra, Seth

2015-04-01

Water resource system infrastructure and operating policies are commonly designed on the assumption that the statistics of future rainfall, temperature and other hydrometeorological variables are equal to those of the historical record. There is now substantial evidence demonstrating that this assumption is no longer valid, and that climate change will significantly impact water resources systems worldwide. Under different climatic inputs, the performance of these systems may degrade to a point where they become unable to meet the primary objectives for which they were built. In such a changing context, using existing infrastructure more efficiently - rather than planning additional infrastructure - becomes key to restore the system's performance at acceptable levels and minimize financial investments and associated risk. The traditional top-down approach for assessing climate change impacts relies on the use of a cascade of models from the global to the local scale. However, it is often difficult to utilize this top-down approach in a decision-making procedure, as there is disparity amongst various climate projections, arising from incomplete scientific understanding of the complicated processes and feedbacks within the climate system, and model limitations in reproducing those relationships. In contrast with this top-down approach, this study contributes a framework to identify the adaptive capacity of water resource systems under changing climatic conditions adopting a bottom-up, vulnerability-based approach. The performance of the current system management is first assessed for a comprehensive range of climatic conditions, which are independent of climate model forecasts. The adaptive capacity of the system is then estimated by re-evaluating the performance of a set of adaptive operating policies, which are optimized for each climatic condition under which the system is simulated. The proposed framework reverses the perspective by identifying water system vulnerability drivers and by enhancing the adaptive capacity of the system to respond to unforeseen events, in order to design robust and resilient adaptation measures. The approach is demonstrated on the multipurpose operation of the Lake Como system, located in Northern Italy, accounting for flood protection and irrigation supply. Numerical results show that our framework successfully identified the failure boundary based on current system management policies, which is demonstrated as being particularly sensitive to decreases in both precipitation and temperature. To estimate the likelihood of the climate being in states causing system failures and to provide a time frame for reaching such states, we consider 22 climate model projections; these projections suggest that the current management policies will lead to a high chance of failure over the next 40 years. The adaptive capacity of the re-optimized operating policies exhibits the potential for partially mitigating adverse climate change impacts and for extending the life of the system.

Public sector reform and governance for adaptation: implications of new public management for adaptive capacity in Mexico and Norway.

PubMed

Eakin, Hallie; Eriksen, Siri; Eikeland, Per-Ove; Øyen, Cecilie

2011-03-01

Although many governments are assuming the responsibility of initiating adaptation policy in relation to climate change, the compatibility of "governance-for-adaptation" with the current paradigms of public administration has generally been overlooked. Over the last several decades, countries around the globe have embraced variants of the philosophy of administration broadly called "New Public Management" (NPM) in an effort to improve administrative efficiencies and the provision of public services. Using evidence from a case study of reforms in the building sector in Norway, and a case study of water and flood risk management in central Mexico, we analyze the implications of the adoption of the tenets of NPM for adaptive capacity. Our cases illustrate that some of the key attributes associated with governance for adaptation--namely, technical and financial capacities; institutional memory, learning and knowledge; and participation and accountability--have been eroded by NPM reforms. Despite improvements in specific operational tasks of the public sector in each case, we show that the success of NPM reforms presumes the existence of core elements of governance that have often been found lacking, including solid institutional frameworks and accountability. Our analysis illustrates the importance of considering both longer-term adaptive capacities and short-term efficiency goals in public sector administration reform.

Integrative evaluation for sustainable decisions of urban wastewater system management under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadjimichael, A.; Corominas, L.; Comas, J.

2017-12-01

With sustainable development as their overarching goal, urban wastewater system (UWS) managers need to take into account multiple social, economic, technical and environmental facets related to their decisions. In this complex decision-making environment, uncertainty can be formidable. It is present both in the ways the system is interpreted stochastically, but also in its natural ever-shifting behavior. This inherent uncertainty suggests that wiser decisions would be made under an adaptive and iterative decision-making regime. No decision-support framework has been presented in the literature to effectively addresses all these needs. The objective of this work is to describe such a conceptual framework to evaluate and compare alternative solutions for various UWS challenges within an adaptive management structure. Socio-economic aspects such as externalities are taken into account, along with other traditional criteria as necessary. Robustness, reliability and resilience analyses test the performance of the system against present and future variability. A valuation uncertainty analysis incorporates uncertain valuation assumptions in the decision-making process. The framework is demonstrated with an application to a case study presenting a typical problem often faced by managers: poor river water quality, increasing population, and more stringent water quality legislation. The application of the framework made use of: i) a cost-benefit analysis including monetized environmental benefits and damages; ii) a robustness analysis of system performance against future conditions; iii) reliability and resilience analyses of the system given contextual variability; and iv) a valuation uncertainty analysis of model parameters. The results suggest that the installation of bigger volumes would give rise to increased benefits despite larger capital costs, as well as increased robustness and resilience. Population numbers appear to affect the estimated benefits most, followed by electricity prices and climate change projections. The presented framework is expected to be a valuable tool for the next generation of UWS decision-making and the application demonstrates a novel and valuable integration of metrics and methods for UWS analysis.

A framework for assessment and monitoring of arthropods in a lowland tropical forest.

PubMed

Finnamore, Albert; Alonso, Alfonso; Santisteban, Jose; Cordova, Saida; Valencia, Gorky; de la Cruz, Alicia; Polo, Roberto

2002-05-01

By applying principles of adaptive management, and by using the valuable information that arthropods provide from assessment and monitoring programs, managers can identify and reduce possible impacts on biodiversity in development projects. In 1996, the Smithsonian Institution's Monitoring and Assessment of Biodiversity program worked together with Shell Prospecting and Development Peru to establish an adaptive management program to protect biodiversity in a natural gas exploration project in a Peruvian rainforest. In this paper, we outlined the conceptual steps involved in establishing an assessment and monitoring program for arthropods, including setting objectives, evaluating the results and making decisions. We also present the results of the assessment using some of groups of arthropods, and summarize the steps taken to identify appropriate groups for monitoring.

Quantifying Risks in the Global Water-Food-Climate Nexus in the Coming Decades: An Integrated Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, C. A.; Strzepek, K.; Arndt, C.; Gueneau, A.; Cai, Y.; Gao, X.; Robinson, S.; Sokolov, A. P.; Thurlow, J.

2011-12-01

The growing need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to regional climate change calls for the quantification of the likelihood of regional outcomes and the representation of their uncertainty. Moreover, our global water resources include energy, agricultural and environmental systems, which are linked together as well as to climate. With the prospect of potential climate change and associated shifts in hydrologic variation and extremes, the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) framework, in collaboration with UNU-WIDER, has enhanced its capabilities to model impacts (or effects) on the managed water-resource systems. We first present a hybrid approach that extends the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework to provide probabilistic projections of regional climate changes. This procedure constructs meta-ensembles of the regional hydro-climate, combining projections from the MIT IGSM that represent global-scale uncertainties with regionally resolved patterns from archived climate-model projections. From these, a river routing and water-resource management module allocates water among irrigation, hydropower, urban/industrial, and in-stream uses and investigate how society might adapt water resources due to shifts in hydro-climate variations and extremes. These results are then incorporated into economic models allowing us to consider the implications of climate for growth, land use, and development prospects. In this model-based investigation, we consider how changes in the regional hydro-climate over major river basins in southern Africa, Vietnam, as well as the United States impact agricultural productivity and water-management systems, and whether adaptive strategies can cope with the more severe climate-related threats to growth and development. All this is cast under a probabilistic description of regional climate changes encompassed by the IGSM framework.

Evolving the policy framework: Budget strategies, legislative authorities, and management strategies to facilitate federal forest adaptation and collaborative partnerships

Treesearch

Christopher Topik; Paige Lewis

2014-01-01

Some of the greatest challenges to the management of federal forests in the Unites States result from inadequate public and private investment in proactive forest restoration projects. This situation has been exacerbated by the growing fiscal and logistical demands of wildfire suppression activities, which currently consume at least 40 percent of the U.S. Forest...

Science framework for conservation and restoration of the sagebrush biome: Linking the Department of the Interior’s Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy to long-term strategic conservation actions, Part 1. Science basis and applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chambers, Jeanne C.; Beck, Jeffrey L.; Bradford, John B.; Bybee, Jared; Campbell, Steve; Carlson, John; Christiansen, Thomas J; Clause, Karen J.; Collins, Gail; Crist, Michele R.; Dinkins, Jonathan B.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Edwards, Fred; Espinosa, Shawn; Griffin, Kathleen A.; Griffin, Paul; Haas, Jessica R.; Hanser, Steven E.; Havlina, Douglas W.; Henke, Kenneth F.; Hennig, Jacob D.; Joyce, Linda A; Kilkenny, Francis F.; Kulpa, Sarah M; Kurth, Laurie L; Maestas, Jeremy D; Manning, Mary E.; Mayer, Kenneth E.; Mealor, Brian A.; McCarthy, Clinton; Pellant, Mike; Perea, Marco A.; Prentice, Karen L.; Pyke, David A.; Wiechman , Lief A.; Wuenschel, Amarina

2017-01-01

The Science Framework is intended to link the Department of the Interior’s Integrated Rangeland Fire Management Strategy with long-term strategic conservation actions in the sagebrush biome. The Science Framework provides a multiscale approach for prioritizing areas for management and determining effective management strategies within the sagebrush biome. The emphasis is on sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems and Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). The approach provided in the Science Framework links sagebrush ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to nonnative, invasive plant species to species habitat information based on the distribution and abundance of focal species. A geospatial process is presented that overlays information on ecosystem resilience and resistance, species habitats, and predominant threats and that can be used at the mid-scale to prioritize areas for management. A resilience and resistance habitat matrix is provided that can help decisionmakers evaluate risks and determine appropriate management strategies. Prioritized areas and management strategies can be refined by managers and stakeholders at the local scale based on higher resolution data and local knowledge. Decision tools are discussed for determining appropriate management actions for areas that are prioritized for management. Geospatial data, maps, and models are provided through the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ScienceBase and Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Landscape Approach Data Portal. The Science Framework is intended to be adaptive and will be updated as additional data become available on other values and species at risk. It is anticipated that the Science Framework will be widely used to: (1) inform emerging strategies to conserve sagebrush ecosystems, sagebrush dependent species, and human uses of the sagebrush system, and (2) assist managers in prioritizing and planning on-the-ground restoration and mitigation actions across the sagebrush biome.

REDD+ and climate smart agriculture in landscapes: A case study in Vietnam using companion modelling.

PubMed

Salvini, G; Ligtenberg, A; van Paassen, A; Bregt, A K; Avitabile, V; Herold, M

2016-05-01

Finding land use strategies that merge land-based climate change mitigation measures and adaptation strategies is still an open issue in climate discourse. This article explores synergies and trade-offs between REDD+, a scheme that focuses mainly on mitigation through forest conservation, with "Climate Smart Agriculture", an approach that emphasizes adaptive agriculture. We introduce a framework for ex-ante assessment of the impact of land management policies and interventions and for quantifying their impacts on land-based mitigation and adaptation goals. The framework includes a companion modelling (ComMod) process informed by interviews with policymakers, local experts and local farmers. The ComMod process consists of a Role-Playing Game with local farmers and an Agent Based Model. The game provided a participatory means to develop policy and climate change scenarios. These scenarios were then used as inputs to the Agent Based Model, a spatially explicit model to simulate landscape dynamics and the associated carbon emissions over decades. We applied the framework using as case study a community in central Vietnam, characterized by deforestation for subsistence agriculture and cultivation of acacias as a cash crop. The main findings show that the framework is useful in guiding consideration of local stakeholders' goals, needs and constraints. Additionally the framework provided beneficial information to policymakers, pointing to ways that policies might be re-designed to make them better tailored to local circumstances and therefore more effective in addressing synergistically climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Flow Restoration in the Columbia River Basin: An Evaluation of a Flow Restoration Accounting Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCoy, Amy L.; Holmes, S. Rankin; Boisjolie, Brett A.

2018-03-01

Securing environmental flows in support of freshwater biodiversity is an evolving field of practice. An example of a large-scale program dedicated to restoring environmental flows is the Columbia Basin Water Transactions Program in the Pacific Northwest region of North America, which has been restoring flows in dewatered tributary habitats for imperiled salmon species over the past decade. This paper discusses a four-tiered flow restoration accounting framework for tracking the implementation and impacts of water transactions as an effective tool for adaptive management. The flow restoration accounting framework provides compliance and flow accounting information to monitor transaction efficacy. We review the implementation of the flow restoration accounting framework monitoring framework to demonstrate (a) the extent of water transactions that have been implemented over the past decade, (b) the volumes of restored flow in meeting flow targets for restoring habitat for anadromous fish species, and (c) an example of aquatic habitat enhancement that resulted from Columbia Basin Water Transactions Program investments. Project results show that from 2002 to 2015, the Columbia Basin Water Transactions Program has completed more than 450 water rights transactions, restoring approximately 1.59 million megaliters to date, with an additional 10.98 million megaliters of flow protected for use over the next 100 years. This has resulted in the watering of over 2414 stream kilometers within the Columbia Basin. We conclude with a discussion of the insights gained through the implementation of the flow restoration accounting framework. Understanding the approach and efficacy of a monitoring framework applied across a large river basin can be informative to emerging flow-restoration and adaptive management efforts in areas of conservation concern.

Operationalizing ecological resilience at a landscape scale: A framework and case study from Silicon Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beller, E.; Robinson, A.; Grossinger, R.; Grenier, L.; Davenport, A.

2015-12-01

Adaptation to climate change requires redesigning our landscapes and watersheds to maximize ecological resilience at large scales and integrated across urban areas, wildlands, and a diversity of ecosystem types. However, it can be difficult for environmental managers and designers to access, interpret, and apply resilience concepts at meaningful scales and across a range of settings. To address this gap, we produced a Landscape Resilience Framework that synthesizes the latest science on the qualitative mechanisms that drive resilience of ecological functions to climate change and other large-scale stressors. The framework is designed to help translate resilience science into actionable ecosystem conservation and restoration recommendations and adaptation strategies by providing a concise but comprehensive list of considerations that will help integrate resilience concepts into urban design, conservation planning, and natural resource management. The framework is composed of seven principles that represent core attributes which determine the resilience of ecological functions within a landscape. These principles are: setting, process, connectivity, redundancy, diversity/complexity, scale, and people. For each principle we identify several key operationalizable components that help illuminate specific recommendations and actions that are likely to contribute to landscape resilience for locally appropriate species, habitats, and biological processes. We are currently using the framework to develop landscape-scale recommendations for ecological resilience in the heavily urbanized Silicon Valley, California, in collaboration with local agencies, companies, and regional experts. The resilience framework is being applied across the valley, including urban, suburban, and wildland areas and terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Ultimately, the framework will underpin the development of strategies that can be implemented to bolster ecological resilience from a site to landscape scale.

Flow Restoration in the Columbia River Basin: An Evaluation of a Flow Restoration Accounting Framework.

PubMed

McCoy, Amy L; Holmes, S Rankin; Boisjolie, Brett A

2018-03-01

Securing environmental flows in support of freshwater biodiversity is an evolving field of practice. An example of a large-scale program dedicated to restoring environmental flows is the Columbia Basin Water Transactions Program in the Pacific Northwest region of North America, which has been restoring flows in dewatered tributary habitats for imperiled salmon species over the past decade. This paper discusses a four-tiered flow restoration accounting framework for tracking the implementation and impacts of water transactions as an effective tool for adaptive management. The flow restoration accounting framework provides compliance and flow accounting information to monitor transaction efficacy. We review the implementation of the flow restoration accounting framework monitoring framework to demonstrate (a) the extent of water transactions that have been implemented over the past decade, (b) the volumes of restored flow in meeting flow targets for restoring habitat for anadromous fish species, and (c) an example of aquatic habitat enhancement that resulted from Columbia Basin Water Transactions Program investments. Project results show that from 2002 to 2015, the Columbia Basin Water Transactions Program has completed more than 450 water rights transactions, restoring approximately 1.59 million megaliters to date, with an additional 10.98 million megaliters of flow protected for use over the next 100 years. This has resulted in the watering of over 2414 stream kilometers within the Columbia Basin. We conclude with a discussion of the insights gained through the implementation of the flow restoration accounting framework. Understanding the approach and efficacy of a monitoring framework applied across a large river basin can be informative to emerging flow-restoration and adaptive management efforts in areas of conservation concern.

Adaptation Design Tool for Climate-Smart Management of Coral Reefs and Other Natural Resources.

PubMed

West, Jordan M; Courtney, Catherine A; Hamilton, Anna T; Parker, Britt A; Gibbs, David A; Bradley, Patricia; Julius, Susan H

2018-06-22

Scientists and managers of natural resources have recognized an urgent need for improved methods and tools to enable effective adaptation of management measures in the face of climate change. This paper presents an Adaptation Design Tool that uses a structured approach to break down an otherwise overwhelming and complex process into tractable steps. The tool contains worksheets that guide users through a series of design considerations for adapting their planned management actions to be more climate-smart given changing environmental stressors. Also provided with other worksheets is a framework for brainstorming new adaptation options in response to climate threats not yet addressed in the current plan. Developed and tested in collaboration with practitioners in Hawai'i and Puerto Rico using coral reefs as a pilot ecosystem, the tool and associated reference materials consist of worksheets, instructions and lessons-learned from real-world examples. On the basis of stakeholder feedback from expert consultations during tool development, we present insights and recommendations regarding how to maximize tool efficiency, gain the greatest value from the thought process, and deal with issues of scale and uncertainty. We conclude by reflecting on how the tool advances the theory and practice of assessment and decision-making science, informs higher level strategic planning, and serves as a platform for a systematic, transparent and inclusive process to tackle the practical implications of climate change for management of natural resources.

Conceptual frameworks of individual work performance: a systematic review.

PubMed

Koopmans, Linda; Bernaards, Claire M; Hildebrandt, Vincent H; Schaufeli, Wilmar B; de Vet Henrica, C W; van der Beek, Allard J

2011-08-01

Individual work performance is differently conceptualized and operationalized in different disciplines. The aim of the current review was twofold: (1) identifying conceptual frameworks of individual work performance and (2) integrating these to reach a heuristic conceptual framework. A systematic review was conducted in medical, psychological, and management databases. Studies were selected independently by two researchers and included when they presented a conceptual framework of individual work performance. A total of 17 generic frameworks (applying across occupations) and 18 job-specific frameworks (applying to specific occupations) were identified. Dimensions frequently used to describe individual work performance were task performance, contextual performance, counterproductive work behavior, and adaptive performance. On the basis of the literature, a heuristic conceptual framework of individual work performance was proposed. This framework can serve as a theoretical basis for future research and practice.

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail ...

Crisis Management: Research Summaries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brock, Stephen E., Ed.; Dorman, Sally; Anderson, Luke; McNair, Daniel

2013-01-01

This article presents summaries of three studies relevant to school crisis response. The first report, "A Framework for International Crisis Intervention" (Sally Dorman), is a review of how existing crisis intervention models (including the NASP PREPaRE model) have been adapted for international use. The second article, "Responding…

Governance conditions for adaptive freshwater management in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, T. P.; Dieperink, Carel; Dang Tri, Van Pham; Otter, Henriëtte S.; Hoekstra, Piet

2018-02-01

The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is a region of utmost importance to Vietnam's national food security. However, the availability of required freshwater resources (from both surface and groundwater sources) is currently under great threats due to dry season salinity intrusion, surface water pollution, and over-exploitation of groundwater. Global climate change, sea level rise, and upstream and in situ development activities may worsen the situation. Assuming that adaptive management could be a promising strategy to address the increasingly complex and unpredictable water-related problems in the VMD, we design and apply a framework to identify the extent to which the governance regime in this region exhibits conditions that are likely to promote adaptive freshwater management. Using both primary and secondary data, our analysis reveals that the prospects for adaptive water management in the study area are limited since several conditions were not present. We observe among others limitations in vertical and horizontal integration and public participation, restraints in knowledge and information sharing, inadequate policy development and implementation, and insufficient diversification of financial resources. Following our findings, we conclude the paper with recommendations both for national, regional and local policy interventions and for future research.

Resource Management for Real-Time Adaptive Agents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welch, Lonnie; Chelberg, David; Pfarr, Barbara; Fleeman, David; Parrott, David; Tan, Zhen-Yu; Jain, Shikha; Drews, Frank; Bruggeman, Carl; Shuler, Chris

2003-01-01

Increased autonomy and automation in onboard flight systems offer numerous potential benefits, including cost reduction and greater flexibility. The existence of generic mechanisms for automation is critical for handling unanticipated science events and anomalies where limitations in traditional control software with fixed, predetermined algorithms can mean loss of science data and missed opportunities for observing important terrestrial events. We have developed such a mechanism by adding a Hierarchical Agent-based ReaLTime technology (HART) extension to our Dynamic Resource Management (DRM) middleware. Traditional DRM provides mechanisms to monitor the realtime performance of distributed applications and to move applications among processors to improve real-time performance. In the HART project we have designed and implemented a performance adaptation mechanism to improve reaktime performance. To use this mechanism, applications are developed that can run at various levels of quality. The DRM can choose a setting for the quality level of an application dynamically at run-time in order to manage satellite resource usage more effectively. A groundbased prototype of a satellite system that captures and processes images has also been developed as part of this project to be used as a benchmark for evaluating the resource management framework A significant enhancement of this generic mission-independent framework allows scientists to specify the utility, or "scientific benefit," of science observations under various conditions like cloud cover and compression method. The resource manager then uses these benefit tables to determine in redtime how to set the quality levels for applications to maximize overall system utility as defined by the scientists running the mission. We also show how maintenance functions llke health and safety data can be integrated into the utility framework. Once thls framework has been certified for missions and successfully flight tested it can be reused with little development overhead for other missions. In contrast, current space missions llke Swift manage similar types of resource trade -off completely with the scientific application code itself, and such code must be re-certified and tested for each mission even if a large portion of the code base is shared. This final report discusses some of the major issues motivating this research effort, provides a literature review of the related work, discusses the resource management framework and ground-based satellite system prototype that has been developed, indicates what work is yet to be performed, and provides a list of publications resulting from this work.

The advantages and limitations of guideline adaptation frameworks.

PubMed

Wang, Zhicheng; Norris, Susan L; Bero, Lisa

2018-05-29

The implementation of evidence-based guidelines can improve clinical and public health outcomes by helping health professionals practice in the most effective manner, as well as assisting policy-makers in designing optimal programs. Adaptation of a guideline to suit the context in which it is intended to be applied can be a key step in the implementation process. Without taking the local context into account, certain interventions recommended in evidence-based guidelines may be infeasible under local conditions. Guideline adaptation frameworks provide a systematic way of approaching adaptation, and their use may increase transparency, methodological rigor, and the quality of the adapted guideline. This paper presents a number of adaptation frameworks that are currently available. We aim to compare the advantages and limitations of their processes, methods, and resource implications. These insights into adaptation frameworks can inform the future development of guidelines and systematic methods to optimize their adaptation. Recent adaptation frameworks show an evolution from adapting entire existing guidelines, to adapting specific recommendations extracted from an existing guideline, to constructing evidence tables for each recommendation that needs to be adapted. This is a move towards more recommendation-focused, context-specific processes and considerations. There are still many gaps in knowledge about guideline adaptation. Most of the frameworks reviewed lack any evaluation of the adaptation process and outcomes, including user satisfaction and resources expended. The validity, usability, and health impact of guidelines developed via an adaptation process have not been studied. Lastly, adaptation frameworks have not been evaluated for use in low-income countries. Despite the limitations in frameworks, a more systematic approach to adaptation based on a framework is valuable, as it helps to ensure that the recommendations stay true to the evidence while taking local needs into account. The utilization of frameworks in the guideline implementation process can be optimized by increasing the understanding and upfront estimation of resource and time needed, capacity building in adaptation methods, and increasing the adaptability of the source recommendation document.

Managing adaptively for multifunctionality in agricultural systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodbod, Jennifer; Barreteau, Olivier; Allen, Craig R.; Magda, Danièle

2016-01-01

The critical importance of agricultural systems for food security and as a dominant global landcover requires management that considers the full dimensions of system functions at appropriate scales, i.e. multifunctionality. We propose that adaptive management is the most suitable management approach for such goals, given its ability to reduce uncertainty over time and support multiple objectives within a system, for multiple actors. As such, adaptive management may be the most appropriate method for sustainably intensifying production whilst increasing the quantity and quality of ecosystem services. However, the current assessment of performance of agricultural systems doesn’t reward ecosystem service provision. Therefore, we present an overview of the ecosystem functions agricultural systems should and could provide, coupled with a revised definition for assessing the performance of agricultural systems from a multifunctional perspective that, when all satisfied, would create adaptive agricultural systems that can increase production whilst ensuring food security and the quantity and quality of ecosystem services. The outcome of this high level of performance is the capacity to respond to multiple shocks without collapse, equity and triple bottom line sustainability. Through the assessment of case studies, we find that alternatives to industrialized agricultural systems incorporate more functional goals, but that there are mixed findings as to whether these goals translate into positive measurable outcomes. We suggest that an adaptive management perspective would support the implementation of a systematic analysis of the social, ecological and economic trade-offs occurring within such systems, particularly between ecosystem services and functions, in order to provide suitable and comparable assessments. We also identify indicators to monitor performance at multiple scales in agricultural systems which can be used within an adaptive management framework to increase resilience at multiple scales.

Managing adaptively for multifunctionality in agricultural systems.

PubMed

Hodbod, Jennifer; Barreteau, Olivier; Allen, Craig; Magda, Danièle

2016-12-01

The critical importance of agricultural systems for food security and as a dominant global landcover requires management that considers the full dimensions of system functions at appropriate scales, i.e. multifunctionality. We propose that adaptive management is the most suitable management approach for such goals, given its ability to reduce uncertainty over time and support multiple objectives within a system, for multiple actors. As such, adaptive management may be the most appropriate method for sustainably intensifying production whilst increasing the quantity and quality of ecosystem services. However, the current assessment of performance of agricultural systems doesn't reward ecosystem service provision. Therefore, we present an overview of the ecosystem functions agricultural systems should and could provide, coupled with a revised definition for assessing the performance of agricultural systems from a multifunctional perspective that, when all satisfied, would create adaptive agricultural systems that can increase production whilst ensuring food security and the quantity and quality of ecosystem services. The outcome of this high level of performance is the capacity to respond to multiple shocks without collapse, equity and triple bottom line sustainability. Through the assessment of case studies, we find that alternatives to industrialized agricultural systems incorporate more functional goals, but that there are mixed findings as to whether these goals translate into positive measurable outcomes. We suggest that an adaptive management perspective would support the implementation of a systematic analysis of the social, ecological and economic trade-offs occurring within such systems, particularly between ecosystem services and functions, in order to provide suitable and comparable assessments. We also identify indicators to monitor performance at multiple scales in agricultural systems which can be used within an adaptive management framework to increase resilience at multiple scales. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Public Sector Reform and Governance for Adaptation: Implications of New Public Management for Adaptive Capacity in Mexico and Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eakin, Hallie; Eriksen, Siri; Eikeland, Per-Ove; Øyen, Cecilie

2011-03-01

Although many governments are assuming the responsibility of initiating adaptation policy in relation to climate change, the compatibility of "governance-for-adaptation" with the current paradigms of public administration has generally been overlooked. Over the last several decades, countries around the globe have embraced variants of the philosophy of administration broadly called "New Public Management" (NPM) in an effort to improve administrative efficiencies and the provision of public services. Using evidence from a case study of reforms in the building sector in Norway, and a case study of water and flood risk management in central Mexico, we analyze the implications of the adoption of the tenets of NPM for adaptive capacity. Our cases illustrate that some of the key attributes associated with governance for adaptation—namely, technical and financial capacities; institutional memory, learning and knowledge; and participation and accountability—have been eroded by NPM reforms. Despite improvements in specific operational tasks of the public sector in each case, we show that the success of NPM reforms presumes the existence of core elements of governance that have often been found lacking, including solid institutional frameworks and accountability. Our analysis illustrates the importance of considering both longer-term adaptive capacities and short-term efficiency goals in public sector administration reform.

Systems fragility: The sociology of chaos.

PubMed

Hodges, Lori R

2016-01-01

This article examines the concept of community fragility in emergency management from a systems perspective. Using literature that addresses fragility in four areas of complex systems, including ecosystems, social systems, sociotechnical systems, and complex adaptive systems, a theoretical framework focused on the emergency management field is created. These findings illustrate how community fragility factors can be used in the emergency management field to not only improve overall outcomes after disaster but also build less fragile systems and communities in preparation for future disasters.

Adaptive change in corporate control practices.

PubMed

Alexander, J A

1991-03-01

Multidivisional organizations are not concerned with what structure to adopt but with how they should exercise control within the divisional form to achieve economic efficiencies. Using an information-processing framework, I examined control arrangements between the headquarters and operating divisions of such organizations and how managers adapted control practices to accommodate increasing environmental uncertainty. Also considered were the moderating effects of contextual attributes on such adaptive behavior. Analyses of panel data from 97 multihospital systems suggested that organizations generally practice selective decentralization under conditions of increasing uncertainty but that organizational age, dispersion, and initial control arrangements significantly moderate the direction and magnitude of such changes.

Optimizing Input/Output Using Adaptive File System Policies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Madhyastha, Tara M.; Elford, Christopher L.; Reed, Daniel A.

1996-01-01

Parallel input/output characterization studies and experiments with flexible resource management algorithms indicate that adaptivity is crucial to file system performance. In this paper we propose an automatic technique for selecting and refining file system policies based on application access patterns and execution environment. An automatic classification framework allows the file system to select appropriate caching and pre-fetching policies, while performance sensors provide feedback used to tune policy parameters for specific system environments. To illustrate the potential performance improvements possible using adaptive file system policies, we present results from experiments involving classification-based and performance-based steering.

Operational considerations for implementing regional sediment management plans in the northern Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Underwood, Steven G.; Khalil, Syed M.; Byrnes, Mark R.; Steyer, Gregory D.; Raynie, Richard C

2015-01-01

Development of a comprehensive and stakeholder-driven Regional Sediment Management plan can provide the basis for long-term sustainable resource use and protection. This paper highlights three operational components that can positively influence sediment management at a regional scale, including (1) integration of an operational sediment budget, (2) development of a monitoring and adaptive management plan, and (3) development of a regional sediment availability and allocation program. These components seek to incorporate science and adaptive management through implementation of an organized and well-documented decision making process. They represent a coordinated framework that could serve as a guide for unifying financial investments in regional sediment management plans. Collectively, they establish an integrated process for addressing uncertainties about future system change in light of shrinking federal and state budgets, competing demands for sediment resources within riverine and marine waters, and policy considerations related to sediment/water use (e.g., navigation and commerce versus environmental management).

A HYPOTHESIS-DRIVEN FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING CLIMATE INDUCED CHANGES IN COASTAL FINAL ECOSYSTEM GOODS AND SERVICES

EPA Science Inventory

Understanding how climate change will alter the availability of coastal final ecosystem goods and services (FEGS; such as food provisioning from fisheries, property protection, and recreation) has significant implications for coastal planning and the development of adaptive manag...

A common framework for greenhouse gas assessment protocols in temperate agroforestry systems: Connecting via GRACEnet

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agroforestry systems offer many ecosystem benefits, but such systems have previously been marginalized in temperate environments due to overriding economic goals and perceived management complexity. In view of adaptation to a changing climate, agroforestry systems offer advantages that require quan...

An integrated environmental modeling framework for performing quantitative microbial risk assessments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Standardized methods are often used to assess the likelihood of a human-health effect from exposure to a specified hazard, and inform opinions and decisions about risk management and communication. A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is specifically adapted to detail potential human-heal...

Conceptual Modeling for Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management in the Barycz Valley, Lower Silesia, Poland

PubMed Central

Magnuszewski, Piotr; Sendzimir, Jan; Kronenberg, Jakub

2005-01-01

The complexity of interactions in socio-ecological systems makes it very difficult to plan and implement policies successfully. Traditional environmental management and assessment techniques produce unsatisfactory results because they often ignore facets of system structure that underlie complexity: delays, feedbacks, and non-linearities. Assuming that causes are linked in a linear chain, they concentrate on technological developments (“hard path”) as the only solutions to environmental problems. Adaptive Management is recognized as a promising alternative approach directly addressing links between social and ecological systems and involving stakeholders in the analysis and decision process. This “soft path” requires special tools to facilitate collaboration between “experts” and stakeholders in analyzing complex situations and prioritizing policies and actions. We have applied conceptual modeling to increase communication, understanding and commitment in the project of seven NGOs “Sustainable Regional Development in the Odra Catchment”. The main goal was to help our NGO partners to facilitate their efforts related to developing sustainable policies and practices to respond to large-scale challenges (EU accession, global changes in climate and economy) to their natural, economic and socio-cultural heritages. Among the variety of sustainability issues explored by these NGOs, two (extensive agricultural practices and “green” local products) were examined by using Adaptive Management (AM) as a framework that would link analysis, discussion, research, actions and monitoring. Within the AM framework the project coordinators used tools of systems analysis (Mental Model Mapping) to facilitate discussions in which NGO professionals and local stakeholders could graphically diagram and study their understanding of what factors interacted and how they affect the region’s sustainability. These discussions produced larger-scale Regional Sustainability Models as well as more detailed sub-models of particular factors, processes, and feedback loops that appear critical to a sustainable future. The Regional Sustainability Model was used to identify a subset of key interacting factors (variables). For each variable, several sustainability indicators were suggested. The growing understanding and acceptance of the AM framework and systems analysis created a momentum both locally and within the region, which makes continued successful use of these indicators quite likely. In contrast to expert-driven projects that inject outside knowledge into a local context, this project established a broad basis for stakeholder-driven discussion that is articulated into goals, objectives, conceptual models, and indicators. The ability to learn and adapt in the AM framework increases the capacity to innovate and find policies and practices that enhance resilience and sustainability in a world in transition. PMID:16705818

Idaho National Laboratory Test Area North: Application of Endpoints to Guide Adaptive Remediation at a Complex Site: INL Test Area North: Application of Endpoints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, M. Hope; Truex, Mike; Freshley, Mark

Complex sites are defined as those with difficult subsurface access, deep and/or thick zones of contamination, large areal extent, subsurface heterogeneities that limit the effectiveness of remediation, or where long-term remedies are needed to address contamination (e.g., because of long-term sources or large extent). The Test Area North at the Idaho National Laboratory, developed for nuclear fuel operations and heavy metal manufacturing, is used as a case study. Liquid wastes and sludge from experimental facilities were disposed in an injection well, which contaminated the subsurface aquifer located deep within fractured basalt. The wastes included organic, inorganic, and low-level radioactive constituents,more » with the focus of this case study on trichloroethylene. The site is used as an example of a systems-based framework that provides a structured approach to regulatory processes established for remediation under existing regulations. The framework is intended to facilitate remedy decisions and implementation at complex sites where restoration may be uncertain, require long timeframes, or involve use of adaptive management approaches. The framework facilitates site, regulator, and stakeholder interactions during the remedial planning and implementation process by using a conceptual model description as a technical foundation for decisions, identifying endpoints, which are interim remediation targets or intermediate decision points on the path to an ultimate end, and maintaining protectiveness during the remediation process. At the Test Area North, using a structured approach to implementing concepts in the endpoint framework, a three-component remedy is largely functioning as intended and is projected to meet remedial action objectives by 2095 as required. The remedy approach is being adjusted as new data become available. The framework provides a structured process for evaluating and adjusting the remediation approach, allowing site owners, regulators, and stakeholders to manage contamination at complex sites where adaptive remedies are needed.« less

Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Facilities. Preliminary Synthesis of Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, R. H.; Blohm, A. J.; Delgado, A.

2015-08-15

U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before finalmore » conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and infrastructure; (4) Vulnerability assessments can be connected to efforts to improve facility resilience to motivate participation; and (5) Efficient, scalable methods for vulnerability assessment can be developed, but additional case studies and evaluation are required.« less

Mainstreaming biodiversity and wildlife management into climate change policy frameworks in selected east and southern African countries

PubMed Central

Nhamo, Godwell

2016-01-01

The Rio+20 outcomes document, the Future We Want, enshrines green economy as one of the platforms to attain sustainable development and calls for measures that seek to address climate change and biodiversity management. This paper audits climate change policies from selected east and southern African countries to determine the extent to which climate change legislation mainstreams biodiversity and wildlife management. A scan of international, continental, regional and national climate change policies was conducted to assess whether they include biodiversity and/or wildlife management issues. The key finding is that many climate change policy–related documents, particularly the National Adaptation Programme of Actions (NAPAs), address threats to biodiversity and wildlife resources. However, international policies like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol do not address the matter under deliberation. Regional climate change policies such as the East African Community, Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and African Union address biodiversity and/or wildlife issues whilst the Southern African Development Community region does not have a stand-alone policy for climate change. Progressive countries like Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia have recently put in place detailed NAPAs which are mainstream responsive strategies intended to address climate change adaptation in the wildlife sector.

A framework for engaging stakeholders on the management of alien species.

PubMed

Novoa, Ana; Shackleton, Ross; Canavan, Susan; Cybèle, Cathleen; Davies, Sarah J; Dehnen-Schmutz, Katharina; Fried, Jana; Gaertner, Mirijam; Geerts, Sjirk; Griffiths, Charles L; Kaplan, Haylee; Kumschick, Sabrina; Le Maitre, David C; Measey, G John; Nunes, Ana L; Richardson, David M; Robinson, Tamara B; Touza, Julia; Wilson, John R U

2018-01-01

Alien species can have major ecological and socioeconomic impacts in their novel ranges and so effective management actions are needed. However, management can be contentious and create conflicts, especially when stakeholders who benefit from alien species are different from those who incur costs. Such conflicts of interests mean that management strategies can often not be implemented. There is, therefore, increasing interest in engaging stakeholders affected by alien species or by their management. Through a facilitated workshop and consultation process including academics and managers working on a variety of organisms and in different areas (urban and rural) and ecosystems (terrestrial and aquatic), we developed a framework for engaging stakeholders in the management of alien species. The proposed framework for stakeholder engagement consists of 12 steps: (1) identify stakeholders; (2) select key stakeholders for engagement; (3) explore key stakeholders' perceptions and develop initial aims for management; (4) engage key stakeholders in the development of a draft management strategy; (5) re-explore key stakeholders' perceptions and revise the aims of the strategy; (6) co-design general aims, management objectives and time frames with key stakeholders; (7) co-design a management strategy; (8) facilitate stakeholders' ownership of the strategy and adapt as required; and (9) implement the strategy and monitor management actions to evaluate the need for additional or future actions. In case additional management is needed after these actions take place, some extra steps should be taken: (10) identify any new stakeholders, benefits, and costs; (11) monitor engagement; and (12) revise management strategy. Overall, we believe that our framework provides an effective approach to minimize the impact of conflicts created by alien species management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing Local Knowledge Use in Agroforestry Management with Cognitive Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isaac, Marney E.; Dawoe, Evans; Sieciechowicz, Krystyna

2009-06-01

Small-holder farmers often develop adaptable agroforestry management techniques to improve and diversify crop production. In the cocoa growing region of Ghana, local knowledge on such farm management holds a noteworthy role in the overall farm development. The documentation and analysis of such knowledge use in cocoa agroforests may afford an applicable framework to determine mechanisms driving farmer preference and indicators in farm management. This study employed 12 in-depth farmer interviews regarding variables in farm management as a unit of analysis and utilized cognitive mapping as a qualitative method of analysis. Our objectives were (1) to illustrate and describe agroforestry management variables and associated farm practices, (2) to determine the scope of decision making of individual farmers, and (3) to investigate the suitability of cognitive mapping as a tool for assessing local knowledge use. Results from the cognitive maps revealed an average of 16 ± 3 variables and 19 ± 3 links between management variables in the farmer cognitive maps. Farmer use of advantageous ecological processes was highly central to farm management (48% of all variables), particularly manipulation of organic matter, shade and food crop establishment, and maintenance of a tree stratum as the most common, highly linked variables. Over 85% of variables included bidirectional arrows, interpreted as farm management practices dominated by controllable factors, insofar as farmers indicated an ability to alter most farm characteristics. Local knowledge use on cocoa production revealed detailed indicators for site evaluation, thus affecting farm preparation and management. Our findings suggest that amid multisourced information under conditions of uncertainty, strategies for adaptable agroforestry management should integrate existing and localized management frameworks and that cognitive mapping provides a tool-based approach to advance such a management support system.

Assessing local knowledge use in agroforestry management with cognitive maps.

PubMed

Isaac, Marney E; Dawoe, Evans; Sieciechowicz, Krystyna

2009-06-01

Small-holder farmers often develop adaptable agroforestry management techniques to improve and diversify crop production. In the cocoa growing region of Ghana, local knowledge on such farm management holds a noteworthy role in the overall farm development. The documentation and analysis of such knowledge use in cocoa agroforests may afford an applicable framework to determine mechanisms driving farmer preference and indicators in farm management. This study employed 12 in-depth farmer interviews regarding variables in farm management as a unit of analysis and utilized cognitive mapping as a qualitative method of analysis. Our objectives were (1) to illustrate and describe agroforestry management variables and associated farm practices, (2) to determine the scope of decision making of individual farmers, and (3) to investigate the suitability of cognitive mapping as a tool for assessing local knowledge use. Results from the cognitive maps revealed an average of 16 +/- 3 variables and 19 +/- 3 links between management variables in the farmer cognitive maps. Farmer use of advantageous ecological processes was highly central to farm management (48% of all variables), particularly manipulation of organic matter, shade and food crop establishment, and maintenance of a tree stratum as the most common, highly linked variables. Over 85% of variables included bidirectional arrows, interpreted as farm management practices dominated by controllable factors, insofar as farmers indicated an ability to alter most farm characteristics. Local knowledge use on cocoa production revealed detailed indicators for site evaluation, thus affecting farm preparation and management. Our findings suggest that amid multisourced information under conditions of uncertainty, strategies for adaptable agroforestry management should integrate existing and localized management frameworks and that cognitive mapping provides a tool-based approach to advance such a management support system.

. Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gentile, J.H.; Harwell, M.A.; Cropper, W.; Harwell, C. C.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Davis, S.; Ogden, J.C.; Lirman, D.

2001-01-01

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Urban water sustainability: an integrative framework for regional water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzales, P.; Ajami, N. K.

2015-11-01

Traditional urban water supply portfolios have proven to be unsustainable under the uncertainties associated with growth and long-term climate variability. Introducing alternative water supplies such as recycled water, captured runoff, desalination, as well as demand management strategies such as conservation and efficiency measures, has been widely proposed to address the long-term sustainability of urban water resources. Collaborative efforts have the potential to achieve this goal through more efficient use of common pool resources and access to funding opportunities for supply diversification projects. However, this requires a paradigm shift towards holistic solutions that address the complexity of hydrologic, socio-economic and governance dynamics surrounding water management issues. The objective of this work is to develop a regional integrative framework for the assessment of water resource sustainability under current management practices, as well as to identify opportunities for sustainability improvement in coupled socio-hydrologic systems. We define the sustainability of a water utility as the ability to access reliable supplies to consistently satisfy current needs, make responsible use of supplies, and have the capacity to adapt to future scenarios. To compute a quantitative measure of sustainability, we develop a numerical index comprised of supply, demand, and adaptive capacity indicators, including an innovative way to account for the importance of having diverse supply sources. We demonstrate the application of this framework to the Hetch Hetchy Regional Water System in the San Francisco Bay Area of California. Our analyses demonstrate that water agencies that share common water supplies are in a good position to establish integrative regional management partnerships in order to achieve individual and collective short-term and long-term benefits.

Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability.

PubMed

Gentile, J H; Harwell, M A; Cropper, W; Harwell, C C; DeAngelis, D; Davis, S; Ogden, J C; Lirman, D

2001-07-02

The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability, and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

Forest management under climatic and social uncertainty: trade-offs between reducing climate change impacts and fostering adaptive capacity.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Lexer, Manfred J

2013-01-15

The unabated continuation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of an international consensus on a stringent climate change mitigation policy underscore the importance of adaptation for coping with the all but inevitable changes in the climate system. Adaptation measures in forestry have particularly long lead times. A timely implementation is thus crucial for reducing the considerable climate vulnerability of forest ecosystems. However, since future environmental conditions as well as future societal demands on forests are inherently uncertain, a core requirement for adaptation is robustness to a wide variety of possible futures. Here we explicitly address the roles of climatic and social uncertainty in forest management, and tackle the question of robustness of adaptation measures in the context of multi-objective sustainable forest management (SFM). We used the Austrian Federal Forests (AFF) as a case study, and employed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework based on ecosystem modeling, multi-criteria decision analysis, and practitioner participation. We explicitly considered climate uncertainty by means of three climate change scenarios, and accounted for uncertainty in future social demands by means of three societal preference scenarios regarding SFM indicators. We found that the effects of climatic and social uncertainty on the projected performance of management were in the same order of magnitude, underlining the notion that climate change adaptation requires an integrated social-ecological perspective. Furthermore, our analysis of adaptation measures revealed considerable trade-offs between reducing adverse impacts of climate change and facilitating adaptive capacity. This finding implies that prioritization between these two general aims of adaptation is necessary in management planning, which we suggest can draw on uncertainty analysis: Where the variation induced by social-ecological uncertainty renders measures aiming to reduce climate change impacts statistically insignificant (i.e., for approximately one third of the investigated management units of the AFF case study), fostering adaptive capacity is suggested as the preferred pathway for adaptation. We conclude that climate change adaptation needs to balance between anticipating expected future conditions and building the capacity to address unknowns and surprises. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive social impact management for conservation and environmental management.

PubMed

Kaplan-Hallam, Maery; Bennett, Nathan J

2018-04-01

Concerns about the social consequences of conservation have spurred increased attention the monitoring and evaluation of the social impacts of conservation projects. This has resulted in a growing body of research that demonstrates how conservation can produce both positive and negative social, economic, cultural, health, and governance consequences for local communities. Yet, the results of social monitoring efforts are seldom applied to adaptively manage conservation projects. Greater attention is needed to incorporating the results of social impact assessments in long-term conservation management to minimize negative social consequences and maximize social benefits. We bring together insights from social impact assessment, adaptive management, social learning, knowledge coproduction, cross-scale governance, and environmental planning to propose a definition and framework for adaptive social impact management (ASIM). We define ASIM as the cyclical process of monitoring and adaptively managing social impacts over the life-span of an initiative through the 4 stages of profiling, learning, planning, and implementing. We outline 14 steps associated with the 4 stages of the ASIM cycle and provide guidance and potential methods for social-indicator development, predictive assessments of social impacts, monitoring and evaluation, communication of results, and identification and prioritization of management responses. Successful ASIM will be aided by engaging with best practices - including local engagement and collaboration in the process, transparent communication of results to stakeholders, collective deliberation on and choice of interventions, documentation of shared learning at the site level, and the scaling up of insights to inform higher-level conservation policies-to increase accountability, trust, and perceived legitimacy among stakeholders. The ASIM process is broadly applicable to conservation, environmental management, and development initiatives at various scales and in different contexts. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Coastal Adaptation Planning for Sea Level Rise and Extremes: A Global Model for Adaptation Decision-making at the Local Level Given Uncertain Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, D.

2014-12-01

Understanding the potential economic and physical impacts of climate change on coastal resources involves evaluating a number of distinct adaptive responses. This paper presents a tool for such analysis, a spatially-disaggregated optimization model for adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge, the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM). This decision-making framework fills a gap between very detailed studies of specific locations and overly aggregate global analyses. While CIAM is global in scope, the optimal adaptation strategy is determined at the local level, evaluating over 12,000 coastal segments as described in the DIVA database (Vafeidis et al. 2006). The decision to pursue a given adaptation measure depends on local socioeconomic factors like income, population, and land values and how they develop over time, relative to the magnitude of potential coastal impacts, based on geophysical attributes like inundation zones and storm surge. For example, the model's decision to protect or retreat considers the costs of constructing and maintaining coastal defenses versus those of relocating people and capital to minimize damages from land inundation and coastal storms. Uncertain storm surge events are modeled with a generalized extreme value distribution calibrated to data on local surge extremes. Adaptation is optimized for the near-term outlook, in an "act then learn then act" framework that is repeated over the model time horizon. This framework allows the adaptation strategy to be flexibly updated, reflecting the process of iterative risk management. CIAM provides new estimates of the economic costs of SLR; moreover, these detailed results can be compactly represented in a set of adaptation and damage functions for use in integrated assessment models. Alongside the optimal result, CIAM evaluates suboptimal cases and finds that global costs could increase by an order of magnitude, illustrating the importance of adaptive capacity and coastal policy.

Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morelli, Toni L.; Jackson, Stephen T.

2016-01-01

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

PubMed

Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

2016-01-01

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

PubMed Central

Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

2016-01-01

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

Balancing habitat delivery for breeding marsh birds and nonbreeding waterfowl: An integrated waterbird management and monitoring approach at Clarence Cannon National Wildlife Refuge, Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loges, Brian W.; Lyons, James E.; Tavernia, Brian G.

2017-08-23

The Clarence Cannon National Wildlife Refuge (CCNWR) in the Mississippi River flood plain of eastern Missouri provides high quality emergent marsh and moist-soil habitat benefitting both nesting marsh birds and migrating waterfowl. Staff of CCNWR manipulate water levels and vegetation in the 17 units of the CCNWR to provide conditions favorable to these two important guilds. Although both guilds include focal species at multiple planning levels and complement objectives to provide a diversity of wetland community types and water regimes, additional decision support is needed for choosing how much emergent marsh and moist-soil habitat should be provided through annual management actions.To develop decision guidance for balanced delivery of high-energy waterfowl habitat and breeding marsh bird habitat, two measureable management objectives were identified: nonbreeding Anas Linnaeus (dabbling duck) use-days and Rallus elegans (king rail) occupancy of managed units. Three different composite management actions were identified to achieve these objectives. Each composite management action is a unique combination of growing season water regime and soil disturbance. The three composite management actions are intense moist-soil management (moist-soil), intermediate moist-soil (intermediate), and perennial management, which idles soils disturbance (perennial). The two management objectives and three management options were used in a multi-criteria decision analysis to indicate resource allocations and inform annual decision making. Outcomes of the composite management actions were predicted in two ways and multi-criteria decision analysis was used with each set of predictions. First, outcomes were predicted using expert-elicitation techniques and a panel of subject matter experts. Second, empirical data from the Integrated Waterbird Management and Monitoring Initiative collected between 2010 and 2013 were used; where data were lacking, expert judgment was used. Also, a Bayesian decision model was developed that can be updated with monitoring data in an adaptive management framework.Optimal resource allocations were identified in the form of portfolios of composite management actions for the 17 units in the framework. A constrained optimization (linear programming) was used to maximize an objective function that was based on the sum of dabbling duck and king rail utility. The constraints, which included management costs and a minimum energetic carrying capacity (total moist-soil acres), were applied to balance habitat delivery for dabbling ducks and king rails. Also, the framework was constrained in some cases to apply certain management actions of interest to certain management units; these constraints allowed for a variety of hypothetical Habitat Management Plans, including one based on output from a hydrogeomorphic study of the refuge. The decision analysis thus created numerous refuge-wide scenarios, each representing a unique mix of options (one for each of 17 units) and associated benefits (i.e., outcomes with respect to two management objectives).Prepared in collaboration with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the decision framework presented here is designed as a decision-aiding tool for CCNWR managers who ultimately make difficult decisions each year with multiple objectives, multiple management units, and the complexity of natural systems. The framework also provides a way to document hypotheses about how the managed system functions. Furthermore, the framework identifies specific monitoring needs and illustrates precisely how monitoring data will be used for decision-aiding and adaptive management.

Translating National Level Forest Service Goals to Local Level Land Management: Carbon Sequestration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNulty, S.; Treasure, E.

2017-12-01

The USDA Forest Service has many national level policies related to multiple use management. However, translating national policy to stand level forest management can be difficult. As an example of how a national policy can be put into action, we examined three case studies in which a desired future condition is evaluated at the national, region and local scale. We chose to use carbon sequestration as the desired future condition because climate change has become a major area of concern during the last decade. Several studies have determined that the 193 million acres of US national forest land currently sequester 11% to 15% of the total carbon emitted as a nation. This paper provides a framework by which national scale strategies for maintaining or enhancing forest carbon sequestration is translated through regional considerations and local constraints in adaptive management practices. Although this framework used the carbon sequestration as a case study, this framework could be used with other national level priorities such as the National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA) or the Endangered Species Act (ESA).

Resilience and sustainability: Similarities and differences in environmental management applications.

PubMed

Marchese, Dayton; Reynolds, Erin; Bates, Matthew E; Morgan, Heather; Clark, Susan Spierre; Linkov, Igor

2018-02-01

In recent years there have been many disparate uses of the terms sustainability and resilience, with some framing sustainability and resilience as the same concept, and others claiming them to be entirely different and unrelated. To investigate similarities, differences, and current management frameworks for increasing sustainability and resilience, a literature review was undertaken that focused on integrated use of sustainability and resilience in an environmental management context. Sustainability was defined through the triple bottom line of environmental, social and economic system considerations. Resilience was viewed as the ability of a system to prepare for threats, absorb impacts, recover and adapt following persistent stress or a disruptive event. Three generalized management frameworks for organizing sustainability and resilience were found to dominate the literature: (1) resilience as a component of sustainability, (2) sustainability as a component of resilience, and (3) resilience and sustainability as separate objectives. Implementations of these frameworks were found to have common goals of providing benefits to people and the environment under normal and extreme operating conditions, with the best examples building on similarities and minimizing conflicts between resilience and sustainability. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change.

PubMed

Baron, Jill S; Gunderson, Lance; Allen, Craig D; Fleishman, Erica; McKenzie, Donald; Meyerson, Laura A; Oropeza, Jill; Stephenson, Nate

2009-12-01

Past and present climate has shaped the valued ecosystems currently protected in parks and reserves, but future climate change will redefine these conditions. Continued conservation as climate changes will require thinking differently about resource management than we have in the past; we present some logical steps and tools for doing so. Three critical tenets underpin future management plans and activities: (1) climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future; (2) climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats; (3) specific management actions may help increase the resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable. Science-based management will be necessary because past experience may not serve as a guide for novel future conditions. Identifying resources and processes at risk, defining thresholds and reference conditions, and establishing monitoring and assessment programs are among the types of scientific practices needed to support a broadened portfolio of management activities. In addition to the control and hedging management strategies commonly in use today, we recommend adaptive management wherever possible. Adaptive management increases our ability to address the multiple scales at which species and processes function, and increases the speed of knowledge transfer among scientists and managers. Scenario planning provides a broad forward-thinking framework from which the most appropriate management tools can be chosen. The scope of climate change effects will require a shared vision among regional partners. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as an ecological challenge.

Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Gunderson, Lance; Allen, Craig D.; Fleishman, Erica; McKenzie, Donald; Meyerson, Laura A.; Oropeza, Jill; Stephenson, Nathan L.

2009-01-01

Past and present climate has shaped the valued ecosystems currently protected in parks and reserves, but future climate change will redefine these conditions. Continued conservation as climate changes will require thinking differently about resource management than we have in the past; we present some logical steps and tools for doing so. Three critical tenets underpin future management plans and activities: (1) climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future; (2) climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats; (3) specific management actions may help increase the resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable. Science-based management will be necessary because past experience may not serve as a guide for novel future conditions. Identifying resources and processes at risk, defining thresholds and reference conditions, and establishing monitoring and assessment programs are among the types of scientific practices needed to support a broadened portfolio of management activities. In addition to the control and hedging management strategies commonly in use today, we recommend adaptive management wherever possible. Adaptive management increases our ability to address the multiple scales at which species and processes function, and increases the speed of knowledge transfer among scientists and managers. Scenario planning provides a broad forward-thinking framework from which the most appropriate management tools can be chosen. The scope of climate change effects will require a shared vision among regional partners. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as an ecological challenge.

Water governance: learning by developing adaptive capacity to incorporate climate variability and change.

PubMed

Kashyap, A

2004-01-01

There is increasing evidence that global climate variability and change is affecting the quality and availability of water supplies. Integrated water resources development, use, and management strategies, represent an effective approach to achieve sustainable development of water resources in a changing environment with competing demands. It is also a key to achieving the Millennium Development Goals. It is critical that integrated water management strategies must incorporate the impacts of climate variability and change to reduce vulnerability of the poor, strengthen sustainable livelihoods and support national sustainable development. UNDP's strategy focuses on developing adaptation in the water governance sector as an entry point within the framework of poverty reduction and national sustainable development. This strategy aims to strengthen the capacity of governments and civil society organizations to have access to early warning systems, ability to assess the impact of climate variability and change on integrated water resources management, and developing adaptation intervention through hands-on learning by undertaking pilot activities.

Florida Natural Resource Damage Assessment Public Meeting | NOAA Gulf Spill

Science.gov Websites

Damage Assessment Projects Near You Strategic Frameworks Monitoring and Adaptive Management Restoration Publications Press Releases Story Archive Home Florida Natural Resource Damage Assessment Public Meeting Florida Natural Resource Damage Assessment Public Meeting share Posted on November 19, 2010 | Assessment

Reusable Models of Pedagogical Concepts--A Framework for Pedagogical and Content Design.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pawlowski, Jan M.

Standardization initiatives in the field of learning technologies have produced standards for the interoperability of learning environments and learning management systems. Learning resources based on these standards can be reused, recombined, and adapted to the user. However, these standards follow a content-oriented approach; the process of…

Assembling evidence for identifying reservoirs of infection

PubMed Central

Viana, Mafalda; Mancy, Rebecca; Biek, Roman; Cleaveland, Sarah; Cross, Paul C.; Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Haydon, Daniel T.

2014-01-01

Many pathogens persist in multihost systems, making the identification of infection reservoirs crucial for devising effective interventions. Here, we present a conceptual framework for classifying patterns of incidence and prevalence, and review recent scientific advances that allow us to study and manage reservoirs simultaneously. We argue that interventions can have a crucial role in enriching our mechanistic understanding of how reservoirs function and should be embedded as quasi-experimental studies in adaptive management frameworks. Single approaches to the study of reservoirs are unlikely to generate conclusive insights whereas the formal integration of data and methodologies, involving interventions, pathogen genetics, and contemporary surveillance techniques, promises to open up new opportunities to advance understanding of complex multihost systems. PMID:24726345

Assembling evidence for identifying reservoirs of infection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mafalda, Viana; Rebecca, Mancy; Roman, Biek; Sarah, Cleaveland; Cross, Paul C.; James O, Lloyd-Smith; Daniel T, Haydon

2014-01-01

Many pathogens persist in multihost systems, making the identification of infection reservoirs crucial for devising effective interventions. Here, we present a conceptual framework for classifying patterns of incidence and prevalence, and review recent scientific advances that allow us to study and manage reservoirs simultaneously. We argue that interventions can have a crucial role in enriching our mechanistic understanding of how reservoirs function and should be embedded as quasi-experimental studies in adaptive management frameworks. Single approaches to the study of reservoirs are unlikely to generate conclusive insights whereas the formal integration of data and methodologies, involving interventions, pathogen genetics, and contemporary surveillance techniques, promises to open up new opportunities to advance understanding of complex multihost systems.

Features of resilience

DOE PAGES

Connelly, Elizabeth B.; Allen, Craig R.; Hatfield, Kirk; ...

2017-02-20

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) definition of resilience is used here to organize common concepts and synthesize a set of key features of resilience that can be used across diverse application domains. The features in common include critical functions (services), thresholds, cross-scale (both space and time) interactions, and memory and adaptive management. We propose a framework for linking these features to the planning, absorbing, recovering, and adapting phases identified in the NAS definition. As a result, the proposed delineation of resilience can be important in understanding and communicating resilience concepts.

Features of resilience

USGS Publications Warehouse

Connelly, Elizabeth B.; Allen, Craig R.; Hatfield, Kirk; Palma-Oliveira, José M.; Woods, David D.; Linkov, Igor

2017-01-01

The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) definition of resilience is used here to organize common concepts and synthesize a set of key features of resilience that can be used across diverse application domains. The features in common include critical functions (services), thresholds, cross-scale (both space and time) interactions, and memory and adaptive management. We propose a framework for linking these features to the planning, absorbing, recovering, and adapting phases identified in the NAS definition. The proposed delineation of resilience can be important in understanding and communicating resilience concepts.

Quality Requirements for Electronic Health Record Systems*. A Japanese-German Information Management Perspective.

PubMed

Winter, Alfred; Takabayashi, Katsuhiko; Jahn, Franziska; Kimura, Eizen; Engelbrecht, Rolf; Haux, Reinhold; Honda, Masayuki; Hübner, Ursula H; Inoue, Sozo; Kohl, Christian D; Matsumoto, Takehiro; Matsumura, Yasushi; Miyo, Kengo; Nakashima, Naoki; Prokosch, Hans-Ulrich; Staemmler, Martin

2017-08-07

For more than 30 years, there has been close cooperation between Japanese and German scientists with regard to information systems in health care. Collaboration has been formalized by an agreement between the respective scientific associations. Following this agreement, two joint workshops took place to explore the similarities and differences of electronic health record systems (EHRS) against the background of the two national healthcare systems that share many commonalities. To establish a framework and requirements for the quality of EHRS that may also serve as a basis for comparing different EHRS. Donabedian's three dimensions of quality of medical care were adapted to the outcome, process, and structural quality of EHRS and their management. These quality dimensions were proposed before the first workshop of EHRS experts and enriched during the discussions. The Quality Requirements Framework of EHRS (QRF-EHRS) was defined and complemented by requirements for high quality EHRS. The framework integrates three quality dimensions (outcome, process, and structural quality), three layers of information systems (processes and data, applications, and physical tools) and three dimensions of information management (strategic, tactical, and operational information management). Describing and comparing the quality of EHRS is in fact a multidimensional problem as given by the QRF-EHRS framework. This framework will be utilized to compare Japanese and German EHRS, notably those that were presented at the second workshop.

Defining ecological and economical hydropoweroperations: a framework for managing dam releasesto meet multiple conflicting objectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irwin, Elise R.

2014-01-01

Hydroelectric dams are a flexible source of power, provide flood control, and contribute to the economic growth of local communities through real-estate and recreation. Yet the impoundment of rivers can alter and fragment miles of critical riverine habitat needed for other competing needs such as downstream consumptive water use, fish and wildlife population viability, or other forms of recreation. Multiple conflicting interests can compromise progressive management especially with recognized uncertainties related to whether management actions will fulfill the objectives of policy makers, resource managers and/or facility owners. Decision analytic tools were used in a stakeholder-driven process to develop and implement a template for evaluation and prediction of the effects of water resource management of multiple-use systems under the context provided by R.L. Harris Dam on the Tallapoosa River, Alabama, USA. The approach provided a transparent and structured framework for decision-making and incorporated both existing and new data to meet multiple management objectives. Success of the template has been evaluated by the stakeholder governing body in an adaptive resource management framework since 2005 and is ongoing. Consequences of management of discharge at the dam were evaluated annually relative to stakeholder satisfaction to allow for adjustment of both management scenarios and objectives. This template can be applied to attempt to resolve conflict inherent in many dam-regulated systems where management decisions impact diverse values of stakeholders.

The development of mountain risk governance: challenges for application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Link, S.; Stötter, J.

2015-01-01

The complexity the management of mountain risks in the Alps has considerably increased since its institutionalisation in the late nineteenth century. In the history of approaches to dealing with mountain risks four successive paradigms can be distinguished on the basis of key indicators such as guiding principles, characteristic elements and typical instruments: "hazard protection", "hazard management", "risk management", and "risk governance". In this contribution, special attention is paid to the development of hazard zone planning and the growing importance of communication and participation over the course of this transformation. At present, the risk management paradigm has reached maturity. In the Alps, risk governance frameworks are not yet applied to risks from natural hazards. Based on a historical analysis, the suitability and applicability of general risk governance frameworks in the context of mountain risks are discussed. Necessary adaptations (e.g., in administration, educational, and legal structures) are proposed for the upcoming transformation towards mountain risk governance.

Beyond the edge: Linking agricultural landscapes, stream networks, and best management practices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kreiling, Rebecca M.; Thoms, Martin C.; Richardson, William B.

2018-01-01

Despite much research and investment into understanding and managing nutrients across agricultural landscapes, nutrient runoff to freshwater ecosystems is still a major concern. We argue there is currently a disconnect between the management of watershed surfaces (agricultural landscape) and river networks (riverine landscape). These landscapes are commonly managed separately, but there is limited cohesiveness between agricultural landscape-focused research and river science, despite similar end goals. Interdisciplinary research into stream networks that drain agricultural landscapes is expanding but is fraught with problems. Conceptual frameworks are useful tools to order phenomena, reveal patterns and processes, and in interdisciplinary river science, enable the joining of multiple areas of understanding into a single conceptual–empirical structure. We present a framework for the interdisciplinary study and management of agricultural and riverine landscapes. The framework includes components of an ecosystems approach to the study of catchment–stream networks, resilience thinking, and strategic adaptive management. Application of the framework is illustrated through a study of the Fox Basin in Wisconsin, USA. To fully realize the goal of nutrient reduction in the basin, we suggest that greater emphasis is needed on where best management practices (BMPs) are used within the spatial context of the combined watershed–stream network system, including BMPs within the river channel. Targeted placement of BMPs throughout the riverine landscape would increase the overall buffering capacity of the system to nutrient runoff and thus its resilience to current and future disturbances.

Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald-Madden, Eve; Runge, Michael C.; Possingham, Hugh P.; Martin, Tara G.

2011-08-01

Managed relocation is a controversial climate-adaptation strategy to combat negative climate change impacts on biodiversity. While the scientific community debates the merits of managed relocation, species are already being moved to new areas predicted to be more suitable under climate change. To inform these moves, we construct a quantitative decision framework to evaluate the timing of relocation in the face of climate change. We find that the optimal timing depends on many factors, including the size of the population, the demographic costs of translocation and the expected carrying capacities over time in the source and destination habitats. In some settings, such as when a small population would benefit from time to grow before risking translocation losses, haste is ill advised. We also find that active adaptive management is valuable when the effect of climate change on source habitat is uncertain, and leads to delayed movement.

A decision support tool for adaptive management of native prairie ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Victoria M.; Jacobi, Sarah; Gannon, Jill J.; Zorn, Jennifer E.; Moore, Clinton; Lonsdorf, Eric V.

2016-01-01

The Native Prairie Adaptive Management initiative is a decision support framework that provides cooperators with management-action recommendations to help them conserve native species and suppress invasive species on prairie lands. We developed a Web-based decision support tool (DST) for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey initiative. The DST facilitates cross-organizational data sharing, performs analyses to improve conservation delivery, and requires no technical expertise to operate. Each year since 2012, the DST has used monitoring data to update ecological knowledge that it translates into situation-specific management-action recommendations (e.g., controlled burn or prescribed graze). The DST provides annual recommendations for more than 10,000 acres on 20 refuge complexes in four U.S. states. We describe how the DST promotes the long-term implementation of the program for which it was designed and may facilitate decision support and improve ecological outcomes of other conservation efforts.

Ecohydrology frameworks for green infrastructure design and ecosystem service provision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavao-Zuckerman, M.; Knerl, A.; Barron-Gafford, G.

2014-12-01

Urbanization is a dominant form of landscape change that affects the structure and function of ecosystems and alters control points in biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles. Green infrastructure (GI) has been proposed as a solution to many urban environmental challenges and may be a way to manage biogeochemical control points. Despite this promise, there has been relatively limited empirical focus to evaluate the efficacy of GI, relationships between design and function, and the ability of GI to provide ecosystem services in cities. This work has been driven by goals of adapting GI approaches to dryland cities and to harvest rain and storm water for providing ecosystem services related to storm water management and urban heat island mitigation, as well as other co-benefits. We will present a modification of ecohydrologic theory for guiding the design and function of green infrastructure for dryland systems that highlights how GI functions in context of Trigger - Transfer - Reserve - Pulse (TTRP) dynamic framework. Here we also apply this TTRP framework to observations of established street-scape green infrastructure in Tucson, AZ, and an experimental installation of green infrastructure basins on the campus of Biosphere 2 (Oracle, AZ) where we have been measuring plant performance and soil biogeochemical functions. We found variable sensitivity of microbial activity, soil respiration, N-mineralization, photosynthesis and respiration that was mediated both by elements of basin design (soil texture and composition, choice of surface mulches) and antecedent precipitation inputs and soil moisture conditions. The adapted TTRP framework and field studies suggest that there are strong connections between design and function that have implications for stormwater management and ecosystem service provision in dryland cities.

Towards sustainable management of huntable migratory waterbirds in Europe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madsen, Jesper; Guillemain, Matthieu; Nagy, Szabolcs; Defos du Rau, Pierre; Mondain-Monval, Jean-Yves; Griffin, Cy; Williams, James Henty; Bunnefeld, Nils; Czajkowski, Alexandre; Hearn, Richard; Grauer, Andreas; Alhainen, Mikko; Middleton, Angus; Johnson, Fred A.

2015-01-01

The EU Birds Directive and the African-Eurasian Waterbird Agreement provide an adequate legal framework for sustainable management of migratory waterbird populations. The main shortcoming of both instruments is that it leaves harvest decisions of a shared resource to individual Member States and Contracting Parties without providing a shared information base and mechanism to assess the impact of harvest and coordinate actions in relation to mutually agreed objectives. A recent update of the conservation status of waterbirds in the EU shows that almost half of the populations of species listed on Annex II of the Birds Directive have a declining short-term trend and over half of them are listed in Columns A and B of AEWA. This implies that their hunting could either only continue under the framework of an adaptive harvest management plan or their hunting should be regulated with the view of restoring them in favourable conservation status. We argue that a structured approach to decision-making (such as adaptive management) is needed, supported with adequate organisational structures at flyway scale. We review the experience with such an approach in North America and assess the applicability of a similar approach in the European context. We show there is no technical reason why adaptive harvest management could be not applied in the EU or even AEWA context. We demonstrate that an informed approach to setting allowable harvests does not require detailed demographic information. Essential to the process, however, are estimates of either the observed growth rate from a monitoring program or the growth rate expected under ideal conditions. In addition, periodic estimates of population size are needed, as well as either empirical information or reasonable assumptions about the form of density dependence. We show that such information exists for many populations, but improvements are needed to improve geographic coverage, reliability and timely data availability. We highlight the importance of the International Waterbird Census and specialised goose and seaduck monitoring in estimating population sizes and observed growth rate of the populations. We encourage further investments into the development of these schemes. We also recognise the importance of migration studies to improve our understanding of delineations of populations. We also highlight that, with a few exceptions, the available data does not allow the European Commission, competent authorities of the Members States or other AEWA Contracting Parties to assess levels of harvest and their sustainability and, therefore, regulate hunting accordingly. Therefore, we recommend that annual reporting on 2 harvest levels of waterbird populations would be gradually introduced in the EU and the AEWA region. We propose that future AEWA and EU action plans and management plans for Annex II species should apply the principles of adaptive harvest management framework and make provisions for setting up adequate monitoring and information management systems and organisational structures to manage the decision-making process. We suggest that internationally coordinated management structures are established to facilitate dialogue, learning and communication between stakeholders with different interests and cultural backgrounds.

Fishing for ecosystem services.

PubMed

Pope, Kevin L; Pegg, Mark A; Cole, Nicholas W; Siddons, Stephen F; Fedele, Alexis D; Harmon, Brian S; Ruskamp, Ryan L; Turner, Dylan R; Uerling, Caleb C

2016-12-01

Ecosystems are commonly exploited and manipulated to maximize certain human benefits. Such changes can degrade systems, leading to cascading negative effects that may be initially undetected, yet ultimately result in a reduction, or complete loss, of certain valuable ecosystem services. Ecosystem-based management is intended to maintain ecosystem quality and minimize the risk of irreversible change to natural assemblages of species and to ecosystem processes while obtaining and maintaining long-term socioeconomic benefits. We discuss policy decisions in fishery management related to commonly manipulated environments with a focus on influences to ecosystem services. By focusing on broader scales, managing for ecosystem services, and taking a more proactive approach, we expect sustainable, quality fisheries that are resilient to future disturbances. To that end, we contend that: (1) management always involves tradeoffs; (2) explicit management of fisheries for ecosystem services could facilitate a transition from reactive to proactive management; and (3) adaptive co-management is a process that could enhance management for ecosystem services. We propose adaptive co-management with an ecosystem service framework where actions are implemented within ecosystem boundaries, rather than political boundaries, through strong interjurisdictional relationships. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Fishing for ecosystem services

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pope, Kevin L.; Pegg, Mark A.; Cole, Nicholas W.; Siddons, Stephen F.; Fedele, Alexis D.; Harmon, Brian S.; Ruskamp, Ryan L.; Turner, Dylan R.; Uerling, Caleb C.

2016-01-01

Ecosystems are commonly exploited and manipulated to maximize certain human benefits. Such changes can degrade systems, leading to cascading negative effects that may be initially undetected, yet ultimately result in a reduction, or complete loss, of certain valuable ecosystem services. Ecosystem-based management is intended to maintain ecosystem quality and minimize the risk of irreversible change to natural assemblages of species and to ecosystem processes while obtaining and maintaining long-term socioeconomic benefits. We discuss policy decisions in fishery management related to commonly manipulated environments with a focus on influences to ecosystem services. By focusing on broader scales, managing for ecosystem services, and taking a more proactive approach, we expect sustainable, quality fisheries that are resilient to future disturbances. To that end, we contend that: (1) management always involves tradeoffs; (2) explicit management of fisheries for ecosystem services could facilitate a transition from reactive to proactive management; and (3) adaptive co-management is a process that could enhance management for ecosystem services. We propose adaptive co-management with an ecosystem service framework where actions are implemented within ecosystem boundaries, rather than political boundaries, through strong interjurisdictional relationships.

Ergonomics action research II: a framework for integrating HF into work system design.

PubMed

Neumann, W P; Village, J

2012-01-01

This paper presents a conceptual framework that can support efforts to integrate human factors (HF) into the work system design process, where improved and cost-effective application of HF is possible. The framework advocates strategies of broad stakeholder participation, linking of performance and health goals, and process focussed change tools that can help practitioners engage in improvements to embed HF into a firm's work system design process. Recommended tools include business process mapping of the design process, implementing design criteria, using cognitive mapping to connect to managers' strategic goals, tactical use of training and adopting virtual HF (VHF) tools to support the integration effort. Consistent with organisational change research, the framework provides guidance but does not suggest a strict set of steps. This allows more adaptability for the practitioner who must navigate within a particular organisational context to secure support for embedding HF into the design process for improved operator wellbeing and system performance. There has been little scientific literature about how a practitioner might integrate HF into a company's work system design process. This paper proposes a framework for this effort by presenting a coherent conceptual framework, process tools, design tools and procedural advice that can be adapted for a target organisation.

Towards adaptive, streaming analysis of x-ray tomography data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomas, Mathew; Kleese van Dam, Kerstin; Marshall, Matthew J.

2015-03-04

Temporal and spatial resolution of chemical imaging methodologies such as x-ray tomography are rapidly increasing, leading to more complex experimental procedures and fast growing data volumes. Automated analysis pipelines and big data analytics are becoming essential to effectively evaluate the results of such experiments. Offering those data techniques in an adaptive, streaming environment can further substantially improve the scientific discovery process, by enabling experimental control and steering based on the evaluation of emerging phenomena as they are observed by the experiment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)’ Chemical Imaging Initiative (CII - http://imaging.pnnl.gov/ ) has worked since 2011 towards developing amore » framework that allows users to rapidly compose and customize high throughput experimental analysis pipelines for multiple instrument types. The framework, named ‘Rapid Experimental Analysis’ (REXAN) Framework [1], is based on the idea of reusable component libraries and utilizes the PNNL developed collaborative data management and analysis environment ‘Velo’, to provide a user friendly analysis and data management environment for experimental facilities. This article will, discuss the capabilities established for X-Ray tomography, discuss lessons learned, and provide an overview of our more recent work in the Analysis in Motion Initiative (AIM - http://aim.pnnl.gov/ ) at PNNL to provide REXAN capabilities in a streaming environment.« less

Dictating participation? Rethinking the adaptive co-management of socio-ecological systems in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Vilaly, Audra; Abd salam El Vilaly, Mohamed

2015-04-01

In the face of environmental change, enhancing adaptive capacity relies on stakeholder engagement. But the participatory process, while critical to the translation, transfer, and application of scientific knowledge to society, is not without its own contradictions. These include the asymmetrical relations of power that prevail between environmental scientists, managers, and local users; discrepant understandings of knowledge and its appropriate uses; and conflicting social, economic, and ecological values, to name only a few. Our research examines five major transboundary river basin organizations in West Africa and their efforts to improve adaptive basin management via stakeholder collaboration. In particular, we evaluate the participatory strategies of these organizations to measure non-linear, multi-directional feedbacks between the social and biophysical factors of land use/land cover change, as well as the impacts of this change on basins and their dependent populations. Our research suggests that oftentimes, these methods paradoxically produce a hierarchical and marginalizing effect on local stakeholders in relation to the scientists that study them. In seeking to address these limitations, we assess the potential costs and benefits of integrating select components of a Participatory Action Research (PAR) framework (see, for example, Reason & Bradbury-Huang, 2007) into studies of complex socio-ecological problems. This approach, used widely in the social sciences, promotes critical reflection on and minimization of the power inequities inherent in science-society collaborations. It instead favors more horizontal forms of knowledge co-production that support and foster the expansion of local, existing movements for social and environmental justice. A PAR framework may therefore improve the efficiency, sustainability, and equitability of land-based adaptation to environmental change; further research is thus recommended to test this hypothesis. References: Reason, P. & Bradbury-Huang, H. (2007). Handbook of Action Research: Participative Inquiry and Practice, London, Sage.

Modeling the Internet of Things, Self-Organizing and Other Complex Adaptive Communication Networks: A Cognitive Agent-Based Computing Approach.

PubMed

Laghari, Samreen; Niazi, Muaz A

2016-01-01

Computer Networks have a tendency to grow at an unprecedented scale. Modern networks involve not only computers but also a wide variety of other interconnected devices ranging from mobile phones to other household items fitted with sensors. This vision of the "Internet of Things" (IoT) implies an inherent difficulty in modeling problems. It is practically impossible to implement and test all scenarios for large-scale and complex adaptive communication networks as part of Complex Adaptive Communication Networks and Environments (CACOONS). The goal of this study is to explore the use of Agent-based Modeling as part of the Cognitive Agent-based Computing (CABC) framework to model a Complex communication network problem. We use Exploratory Agent-based Modeling (EABM), as part of the CABC framework, to develop an autonomous multi-agent architecture for managing carbon footprint in a corporate network. To evaluate the application of complexity in practical scenarios, we have also introduced a company-defined computer usage policy. The conducted experiments demonstrated two important results: Primarily CABC-based modeling approach such as using Agent-based Modeling can be an effective approach to modeling complex problems in the domain of IoT. Secondly, the specific problem of managing the Carbon footprint can be solved using a multiagent system approach.

Hierarchical adaptation scheme for multiagent data fusion and resource management in situation analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benaskeur, Abder R.; Roy, Jean

2001-08-01

Sensor Management (SM) has to do with how to best manage, coordinate and organize the use of sensing resources in a manner that synergistically improves the process of data fusion. Based on the contextual information, SM develops options for collecting further information, allocates and directs the sensors towards the achievement of the mission goals and/or tunes the parameters for the realtime improvement of the effectiveness of the sensing process. Conscious of the important role that SM has to play in modern data fusion systems, we are currently studying advanced SM Concepts that would help increase the survivability of the current Halifax and Iroquois Class ships, as well as their possible future upgrades. For this purpose, a hierarchical scheme has been proposed for data fusion and resource management adaptation, based on the control theory and within the process refinement paradigm of the JDL data fusion model, and taking into account the multi-agent model put forward by the SASS Group for the situation analysis process. The novelty of this work lies in the unified framework that has been defined for tackling the adaptation of both the fusion process and the sensor/weapon management.

A Unified Nonlinear Adaptive Approach for Detection and Isolation of Engine Faults

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tang, Liang; DeCastro, Jonathan A.; Zhang, Xiaodong; Farfan-Ramos, Luis; Simon, Donald L.

2010-01-01

A challenging problem in aircraft engine health management (EHM) system development is to detect and isolate faults in system components (i.e., compressor, turbine), actuators, and sensors. Existing nonlinear EHM methods often deal with component faults, actuator faults, and sensor faults separately, which may potentially lead to incorrect diagnostic decisions and unnecessary maintenance. Therefore, it would be ideal to address sensor faults, actuator faults, and component faults under one unified framework. This paper presents a systematic and unified nonlinear adaptive framework for detecting and isolating sensor faults, actuator faults, and component faults for aircraft engines. The fault detection and isolation (FDI) architecture consists of a parallel bank of nonlinear adaptive estimators. Adaptive thresholds are appropriately designed such that, in the presence of a particular fault, all components of the residual generated by the adaptive estimator corresponding to the actual fault type remain below their thresholds. If the faults are sufficiently different, then at least one component of the residual generated by each remaining adaptive estimator should exceed its threshold. Therefore, based on the specific response of the residuals, sensor faults, actuator faults, and component faults can be isolated. The effectiveness of the approach was evaluated using the NASA C-MAPSS turbofan engine model, and simulation results are presented.

Team table: a framework and tool for continuous factory planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sihn, Wilfried; Bischoff, Juergen; von Briel, Ralf; Josten, Marcus

2000-10-01

Growing market turbulences and shorter product life cycles require a continuous adaptation of factory structures resulting in a continuous factory planning process. Therefore a new framework is developed which focuses on configuration and data management process integration. This enable an online system performance evaluation based on continuous availability of current data. The use of this framework is especially helpful and will guarantee high cost and time savings, when used in the early stages of the planning, called the concept or rough planning phase. The new framework is supported by a planning round table as a tool for team-based configuration processes integrating the knowledge of all persons involved in planning processes. A case study conducted at a German company shows the advantages which can be achieved by implementing the new framework and methods.

Adaptive Biomedical Innovation: Evolving Our Global System to Sustainably and Safely Bring New Medicines to Patients in Need

PubMed Central

Trusheim, M; Cobbs, E; Bala, M; Garner, S; Hartman, D; Isaacs, K; Lumpkin, M; Lim, R; Oye, K; Pezalla, E; Saltonstall, P; Selker, H

2016-01-01

The current system of biomedical innovation is unable to keep pace with scientific advancements. We propose to address this gap by reengineering innovation processes to accelerate reliable delivery of products that address unmet medical needs. Adaptive biomedical innovation (ABI) provides an integrative, strategic approach for process innovation. Although the term “ABI” is new, it encompasses fragmented “tools” that have been developed across the global pharmaceutical industry, and could accelerate the evolution of the system through more coordinated application. ABI involves bringing stakeholders together to set shared objectives, foster trust, structure decision‐making, and manage expectations through rapid‐cycle feedback loops that maximize product knowledge and reduce uncertainty in a continuous, adaptive, and sustainable learning healthcare system. Adaptive decision‐making, a core element of ABI, provides a framework for structuring decision‐making designed to manage two types of uncertainty – the maturity of scientific and clinical knowledge, and the behaviors of other critical stakeholders. PMID:27626610

A tiered, integrated biological and chemical monitoring framework for contaminants of emerging concern in aquatic ecosystems.

PubMed

Maruya, Keith A; Dodder, Nathan G; Mehinto, Alvine C; Denslow, Nancy D; Schlenk, Daniel; Snyder, Shane A; Weisberg, Stephen B

2016-07-01

The chemical-specific risk-based paradigm that informs monitoring and assessment of environmental contaminants does not apply well to the many thousands of new chemicals that are being introduced into ambient receiving waters. We propose a tiered framework that incorporates bioanalytical screening tools and diagnostic nontargeted chemical analysis to more effectively monitor for contaminants of emerging concern (CECs). The framework is based on a comprehensive battery of in vitro bioassays to first screen for a broad spectrum of CECs and nontargeted analytical methods to identify bioactive contaminants missed by the currently favored targeted analyses. Water quality managers in California have embraced this strategy with plans to further develop and test this framework in regional and statewide pilot studies on waterbodies that receive discharge from municipal wastewater treatment plants and stormwater runoff. In addition to directly informing decisions, the data obtained using this framework can be used to construct and validate models that better predict CEC occurrence and toxicity. The adaptive interplay among screening results, diagnostic assessment and predictive modeling will allow managers to make decisions based on the most current and relevant information, instead of extrapolating from parameters with questionable linkage to CEC impacts. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:540-547. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

Climate change adaptation frameworks: an evaluation of plans for coastal Suffolk, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armstrong, J.; Wilby, R.; Nicholls, R. J.

2015-11-01

This paper asserts that three principal frameworks for climate change adaptation can be recognised in the literature: scenario-led (SL), vulnerability-led (VL) and decision-centric (DC) frameworks. A criterion is developed to differentiate these frameworks in recent adaptation projects. The criterion features six key hallmarks as follows: (1) use of climate model information; (2) analysis of metrics/units; (3) socio-economic knowledge; (4) stakeholder engagement; (5) adaptation of implementation mechanisms; (6) tier of adaptation implementation. The paper then tests the validity of this approach using adaptation projects on the Suffolk coast, UK. Fourteen adaptation plans were identified in an online survey. They were analysed in relation to the hallmarks outlined above and assigned to an adaptation framework. The results show that while some adaptation plans are primarily SL, VL or DC, the majority are hybrid, showing a mixture of DC/VL and DC/SL characteristics. Interestingly, the SL/VL combination is not observed, perhaps because the DC framework is intermediate and attempts to overcome weaknesses of both SL and VL approaches. The majority (57 %) of adaptation projects generated a risk assessment or advice notes. Further development of this type of framework analysis would allow better guidance on approaches for organisations when implementing climate change adaptation initiatives, and other similar proactive long-term planning.

Climate change adaptation frameworks: an evaluation of plans for coastal, Suffolk, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armstrong, J.; Wilby, R.; Nicholls, R. J.

2015-06-01

This paper asserts that three principal frameworks for climate change adaptation can be recognised in the literature: Scenario-Led (SL), Vulnerability-Led (VL) and Decision-Centric (DC) frameworks. A criterion is developed to differentiate these frameworks in recent adaptation projects. The criterion features six key hallmarks as follows: (1) use of climate model information; (2) analysis metrics/units; (3) socio-economic knowledge; (4) stakeholder engagement; (5) adaptation implementation mechanisms; (6) tier of adaptation implementation. The paper then tests the validity of this approach using adaptation projects on the Suffolk coast, UK. Fourteen adaptation plans were identified in an online survey. They were analysed in relation to the hallmarks outlined above and assigned to an adaptation framework. The results show that while some adaptation plans are primarily SL, VL or DC, the majority are hybrid showing a mixture of DC/VL and DC/SL characteristics. Interestingly, the SL/VL combination is not observed, perhaps because the DC framework is intermediate and attempts to overcome weaknesses of both SL and VL approaches. The majority (57 %) of adaptation projects generated a risk assessment or advice notes. Further development of this type of framework analysis would allow better guidance on approaches for organisations when implementing climate change adaptation initiatives, and other similar proactive long-term planning.

Building on the EGIPPS performance assessment: the multipolar framework as a heuristic to tackle the complexity of performance of public service oriented health care organisations.

PubMed

Marchal, Bruno; Hoerée, Tom; da Silveira, Valéria Campos; Van Belle, Sara; Prashanth, Nuggehalli S; Kegels, Guy

2014-04-17

Performance of health care systems is a key concern of policy makers and health service managers all over the world. It is also a major challenge, given its multidimensional nature that easily leads to conceptual and methodological confusion. This is reflected by a scarcity of models that comprehensively analyse health system performance. In health, one of the most comprehensive performance frameworks was developed by the team of Leggat and Sicotte. Their framework integrates 4 key organisational functions (goal attainment, production, adaptation to the environment, and values and culture) and the tensions between these functions.We modified this framework to better fit the assessment of the performance of health organisations in the public service domain and propose an analytical strategy that takes it into the social complexity of health organisations. The resulting multipolar performance framework (MPF) is a meta-framework that facilitates the analysis of the relations and interactions between the multiple actors that influence the performance of health organisations. Using the MPF in a dynamic reiterative mode not only helps managers to identify the bottlenecks that hamper performance, but also the unintended effects and feedback loops that emerge. Similarly, it helps policymakers and programme managers at central level to better anticipate the potential results and side effects of and required conditions for health policies and programmes and to steer their implementation accordingly.

An Analytical Impact Assessment Framework for Wildlife to Inform the Siting and Permitting of Wind Energy Facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwartz, Jesse D.M.

In the United States overall electrical generation capacity is expected to increase by 10-25 gigawatts (GW) per year to meet increases in demand. Wind energy is a key component of state and federal renewable energy standards, and central to the Department of Energy’s 20% by 2030 wind production goals. Increased wind energy development may present increased resource conflict with avian wildlife, and environmental permitting has been identified as a potential obstacle to expansion in the sector. ICF developed an analytical framework to help applicants and agencies examine potential impacts in support of facility siting and permitting. A key objective ofmore » our work was to develop a framework that is scalable from the local to the national level, and one that is generalizable across the different scales at which biological communities operate – from local influences to meta-populations. The intent was to allow natural resource managers to estimate the cumulative impacts of turbine strikes and habitat changes on long-term population performance in the context of a species demography, genetic potential, and life history. We developed three types of models based on our literature review and participation in the scientific review processes. First, the conceptual model was developed as a general description of the analytical framework. Second, we developed the analytical framework based on the relationships between concepts, and the functions presented in the scientific literature. Third, we constructed an application of the model by parameterizing the framework using data from and relevant to the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area (APWRA), and an existing golden eagle population model. We developed managed source code, database create statements, and written documentation to allow for the reproduction of each phase of the analysis. ICF identified a potential template adaptive management system in the form of the US Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS) Adaptive Harvest Management (AHM) program, and developed recommendations for the structure and function of a similar wind-facility related program. We provided a straw-man implementation of the analytical framework based on assumptions for APWRA-wide golden eagle fatalities, and presented a statistical examination of the model performance. APWRA-wide fatality rates appear substantial at all scales examined from the local APWRA population to the Bird Conservation Region. Documented fatality rates significantly influenced population performance in terms of non-territorial non-breeding birds. Breeder, Juvenile, Subadult, and Adult abundance were mostly unaffected by Baseline APWRA-wide fatality rates. However, increased variability in fatality rates would likely have impacts on long-term population performance, and would result in a substantially larger loss of resources. We developed four recommendations for future study. First, we recommend establishment of concept experts through the existing system of non-profits, regulatory agencies, academia, and industry in the wind energy sector. Second, we recommend the development of a central or distributed shared data repository, and establish guidelines for data sharing and transparency. Third, we recommend development a forum and process for model selection at the local and national level. Last, we recommend experimental implementation of the prescribed system at broader scales, and refinement the expectations for modeling and adaptive management.« less

A global conservation system for climate-change adaptation.

PubMed

Hannah, Lee

2010-02-01

Climate change has created the need for a new strategic framework for conservation. This framework needs to include new protected areas that account for species range shifts and management that addresses large-scale change across international borders. Actions within the framework must be effective in international waters and across political frontiers and have the ability to accommodate large income and ability-to-pay discrepancies between countries. A global protected-area system responds to these needs. A fully implemented global system of protected areas will help in the transition to a new conservation paradigm robust to climate change and will ensure the integrity of the climate services provided by carbon sequestration from the world's natural habitats. The internationally coordinated response to climate change afforded by such a system could have significant cost savings relative to a system of climate adaptation that unfolds solely at a country level. Implementation of a global system is needed very soon because the effects of climate change on species and ecosystems are already well underway.

Assessment of Coastal Governance for Climate Change Adaptation in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ojwang, Lenice; Rosendo, Sergio; Celliers, Louis; Obura, David; Muiti, Anastasia; Kamula, James; Mwangi, Maina

2017-11-01

The coastline of Kenya already experiences effects of climate change, adding to existing pressures such as urbanization. Integrated coastal management (ICM) is increasingly recognized as a key policy response to deal with the multiple challenges facing coastal zones, including climate change. It can create an enabling governance environment for effective local action on climate change by facilitating a structured approach to dealing with coastal issues. It encompasses the actions of a wide range of actors, including local governments close to people and their activities affected by climate change. Functioning ICM also offers opportunities for reducing risks and building resilience. This article applied a modified capitals approach framework (CAF), consisting of five "capitals," to assess the status of county government capacity to respond to climate change within the context of coastal governance in three county governments in Kenya. The baseline was defined in terms of governance relating to the implementation of the interrelated policy systems of ICM and coastal climate change adaptation (CCA). The CAF framework provided a systematic approach to building a governance baseline against which to assess the progress of county governments in responding to climate change. It identified gaps in human capacity, financial resource allocation to adaptation and access to climate change information. Furthermore, it showed that having well-developed institutions, including regulatory frameworks at the national level can facilitate but does not automatically enable adaptation at the county level.

Component Framework for Loosely Coupled High Performance Integrated Plasma Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elwasif, W. R.; Bernholdt, D. E.; Shet, A. G.; Batchelor, D. B.; Foley, S.

2010-11-01

We present the design and implementation of a component-based simulation framework for the execution of coupled time-dependent plasma modeling codes. The Integrated Plasma Simulator (IPS) provides a flexible lightweight component model that streamlines the integration of stand alone codes into coupled simulations. Standalone codes are adapted to the IPS component interface specification using a thin wrapping layer implemented in the Python programming language. The framework provides services for inter-component method invocation, configuration, task, and data management, asynchronous event management, simulation monitoring, and checkpoint/restart capabilities. Services are invoked, as needed, by the computational components to coordinate the execution of different aspects of coupled simulations on Massive parallel Processing (MPP) machines. A common plasma state layer serves as the foundation for inter-component, file-based data exchange. The IPS design principles, implementation details, and execution model will be presented, along with an overview of several use cases.

Toward a theoretical framework for trustworthy cyber sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Shouhuai

2010-04-01

Cyberspace is an indispensable part of the economy and society, but has been "polluted" with many compromised computers that can be abused to launch further attacks against the others. Since it is likely that there always are compromised computers, it is important to be aware of the (dynamic) cyber security-related situation, which is however challenging because cyberspace is an extremely large-scale complex system. Our project aims to investigate a theoretical framework for trustworthy cyber sensing. With the perspective of treating cyberspace as a large-scale complex system, the core question we aim to address is: What would be a competent theoretical (mathematical and algorithmic) framework for designing, analyzing, deploying, managing, and adapting cyber sensor systems so as to provide trustworthy information or input to the higher layer of cyber situation-awareness management, even in the presence of sophisticated malicious attacks against the cyber sensor systems?

A Conceptual Model of Childhood Adaptation to Type 1 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Whittemore, Robin; Jaser, Sarah; Guo, Jia; Grey, Margaret

2010-01-01

The Childhood Adaptation Model to Chronic Illness: Diabetes Mellitus was developed to identify factors that influence childhood adaptation to type 1 diabetes (T1D). Since this model was proposed, considerable research has been completed. The purpose of this paper is to update the model on childhood adaptation to T1D using research conducted since the original model was proposed. The framework suggests that individual and family characteristics, such as age, socioeconomic status, and in children with T1D, treatment modality (pump vs. injections), psychosocial responses (depressive symptoms and anxiety), and individual and family responses (self-management, coping, self-efficacy, family functioning, social competence) influence the level of adaptation. Adaptation has both physiologic (metabolic control) and psychosocial (QOL) components. This revised model provides greater specificity to the factors that influence adaptation to chronic illness in children. Research and clinical implications are discussed. PMID:20934079

Analyses of historical and projected climates to support climate adaptation in the northern Rocky Mountains: Chapter 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gross, John E.; Tercek, Michael; Guay, Kevin; Chang, Tony; Talbert, Marian; Rodman, Ann; Thoma, David; Jantz, Patrick; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2016-01-01

Most of the western United States is experiencing the effects of rapid and directional climate change (Garfin et al. 2013). These effects, along with forecasts of profound changes in the future, provide strong motivation for resource managers to learn about and prepare for future changes. Climate adaptation plans are based on an understanding of historic climate variation and their effects on ecosystems and on forecasts of future climate trends. Frameworks for climate adaptation thus universally identify the importance of a summary of historical, current, and projected climates (Glick, Stein, and Edelson 2011; Cross et al. 2013; Stein et al. 2014). Trends in physical climate variables are usually the basis for evaluating the exposure component in vulnerability assessments. Thus, this chapter focuses on step 2 of the Climate-Smart Conservation framework (chap. 2): vulnerability assessment. We present analyses of historical and current observations of temperature, precipitation, and other key climate measurements to provide context and a baseline for interpreting the ecological impacts of projected climate changes.

An adaptive decision framework for the conservation of a threatened plant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Clinton T.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Shea, Katriona; Lah, Kristopher J.; McKenzie, Paul M.; Ball, Lianne C.; Runge, Michael C.; Alexander, Helen M.

2011-01-01

Mead's milkweed Asclepias meadii, a long-lived perennial herb of tallgrass prairie and glade communities of the central United States, is a species designated as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Challenges to its successful management include the facts that much about its life history is unknown, its age at reproductive maturity is very advanced, certain life stages are practically unobservable, its productivity is responsive to unpredictable environmental events, and most of the known populations occur on private lands unprotected by any legal conservation instrument. One critical source of biological uncertainty is the degree to which fire promotes growth and reproductive response in the plant. To aid in its management, we developed a prototype population-level state-dependent decision-making framework that explicitly accounts for this uncertainty and for uncertainties related to stochastic environmental effects and vital rates. To parameterize the decision model, we used estimates found in the literature, and we analyzed data from a long-term monitoring program where fates of individual plants were observed through time. We demonstrate that different optimal courses of action are followed according to how one believes that fire influences reproductive response, and we show that the action taken for certain population states is informative for resolving uncertainty about competing beliefs regarding the effect of fire. We advocate the use of a model-predictive approach for the management of rare populations, particularly when management uncertainty is profound. Over time, an adaptive management approach should reduce uncertainty and improve management performance as predictions of management outcome generated under competing models are continually informed and updated by monitoring data.

Understanding enabling capacities for managing the 'wicked problem' of nonpoint source water pollution in catchments: a conceptual framework.

PubMed

Patterson, James J; Smith, Carl; Bellamy, Jennifer

2013-10-15

Nonpoint source (NPS) water pollution in catchments is a 'wicked' problem that threatens water quality, water security, ecosystem health and biodiversity, and thus the provision of ecosystem services that support human livelihoods and wellbeing from local to global scales. However, it is a difficult problem to manage because water catchments are linked human and natural systems that are complex, dynamic, multi-actor, and multi-scalar in nature. This in turn raises questions about understanding and influencing change across multiple levels of planning, decision-making and action. A key challenge in practice is enabling implementation of local management action, which can be influenced by a range of factors across multiple levels. This paper reviews and synthesises important 'enabling' capacities that can influence implementation of local management action, and develops a conceptual framework for understanding and analysing these in practice. Important enabling capacities identified include: history and contingency; institutional arrangements; collaboration; engagement; vision and strategy; knowledge building and brokerage; resourcing; entrepreneurship and leadership; and reflection and adaptation. Furthermore, local action is embedded within multi-scalar contexts and therefore, is highly contextual. The findings highlight the need for: (1) a systemic and integrative perspective for understanding and influencing change for managing the wicked problem of NPS water pollution; and (2) 'enabling' social and institutional arenas that support emergent and adaptive management structures, processes and innovations for addressing NPS water pollution in practice. These findings also have wider relevance to other 'wicked' natural resource management issues facing similar implementation challenges. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Shifting the Paradigm: Monitoring Access in Medicare Managed Care

PubMed Central

Docteur, Elizabeth R.; Colby, David C.; Gold, Marsha

1996-01-01

Medicare managed care enrollment growth points to the need to develop an approach for monitoring access to care for the increasing number of beneficiaries who use these arrangements. This article describes the issues to be addressed in designing a system for monitoring managed care plan enrollees' ability to obtain needed medical care on a timely basis. We review components of the monitoring approach used for traditional fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare, including the conceptual framework, data, measures, and subgroups targeted in monitoring efforts, and discuss the adaptation of that approach for monitoring access in Medicare managed care. PMID:10165713

Shifting the paradigm: monitoring access in Medicare managed care.

PubMed

Docteur, E R; Colby, D C; Gold, M

1996-01-01

Medicare managed care enrollment growth points to the need to develop an approach for monitoring access to care for the increasing number of beneficiaries who use these arrangements. This article describes the issues to be addressed in designing a system for monitoring managed care plan enrollees' ability to obtain needed medical care on a timely basis. We review components of the monitoring approach used for traditional fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare, including the conceptual framework, data, measures, and subgroups targeted in monitoring efforts, and discuss the adaptation of that approach for monitoring access in Medicare managed care.

Psychological Entropy: A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty-Related Anxiety

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hirsh, Jacob B.; Mar, Raymond A.; Peterson, Jordan B.

2012-01-01

Entropy, a concept derived from thermodynamics and information theory, describes the amount of uncertainty and disorder within a system. Self-organizing systems engage in a continual dialogue with the environment and must adapt themselves to changing circumstances to keep internal entropy at a manageable level. We propose the entropy model of…

Application of a Framework for Educational Provision--Research Findings and Implications for Education for Sustainability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hewitt, Nan A.

2007-01-01

Learning for sustainability has the potential to play a significant role in enhancing social ecological resilience--as individuals and institutions develop the capacity to adaptively manage the environment. This article outlines an audience and learning needs analysis of irrigators in Western Australia's East Wanneroo area. Interviews were…

Conservation in the face of climate change: The roles of alternative models, monitoring, and adaptation in confronting and reducing uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conroy, M.J.; Runge, M.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Stodola, K.W.; Cooper, R.J.

2011-01-01

The broad physical and biological principles behind climate change and its potential large scale ecological impacts on biota are fairly well understood, although likely responses of biotic communities at fine spatio-temporal scales are not, limiting the ability of conservation programs to respond effectively to climate change outside the range of human experience. Much of the climate debate has focused on attempts to resolve key uncertainties in a hypothesis-testing framework. However, conservation decisions cannot await resolution of these scientific issues and instead must proceed in the face of uncertainty. We suggest that conservation should precede in an adaptive management framework, in which decisions are guided by predictions under multiple, plausible hypotheses about climate impacts. Under this plan, monitoring is used to evaluate the response of the system to climate drivers, and management actions (perhaps experimental) are used to confront testable predictions with data, in turn providing feedback for future decision making. We illustrate these principles with the problem of mitigating the effects of climate change on terrestrial bird communities in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

How patients with gout become engaged in disease management: a constructivist grounded theory study.

PubMed

Howren, Alyssa; Cox, Susan M; Shojania, Kam; Rai, Sharan K; Choi, Hyon K; De Vera, Mary A

2018-06-01

Prior qualitative research on gout has focused primarily on barriers to disease management. Our objective was to use patients' perspectives to construct an explanatory framework to understand how patients become engaged in the management of their gout. We recruited a sample of individuals with gout who were participating in a proof-of-concept study of an eHealth-supported collaborative care model for gout involving rheumatology, pharmacy, and dietetics. Semistructured interviews were used. We analyzed transcripts using principles of constructivist grounded theory involving initial coding, focused coding and categorizing, and theoretical coding. Twelve participants with gout (ten males, two females; mean age, 66.5 ± 13.3 years) were interviewed. The analysis resulted in the construction of three themes as well as a framework describing the dynamically linked themes on (1) processing the diagnosis and management of gout, (2) supporting management of gout, and (3) interfering with management of gout. In this framework, patients with gout transition between each theme in the process of becoming engaged in the management of their gout and may represent potential opportunities for healthcare intervention. Findings derived from this study show that becoming engaged in gout management is a dynamic process whereby patients with gout experience factors that interfere with gout management, process their disease and its management, and develop the practical and perceptual skills necessary to manage their gout. By understanding this process, healthcare providers can identify points to adapt care delivery and thereby improve health outcomes.

Risks posed by climate change to the delivery of Water Framework Directive objectives in the UK.

PubMed

Wilby, R L; Orr, H G; Hedger, M; Forrow, D; Blackmore, M

2006-12-01

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) is novel because it integrates water quality, water resources, physical habitat and, to some extent, flooding for all surface and groundwaters and takes forward river basin management. However, the WFD does not explicitly mention risks posed by climate change to the achievement of its environmental objectives. This is despite the fact that the time scale for the implementation process and achieving particular objectives extends into the 2020s, when climate models project changes in average temperature and precipitation. This paper begins by reviewing the latest UK climate change scenarios and the wider policy and science context of the WFD. We then examine the potential risks of climate change to key phases of the River Basin Management Process that underpin the WFD (such as characterisation of river basins and their water bodies, risk assessments to identify pressures and impacts, programmes of measures (POMs) options appraisal, monitoring and modelling, policy and management activities). Despite these risks the WFD could link new policy and participative mechanisms (being established for the River Basin Management Plans) to the emerging framework of national and regional climate change adaptation policy. The risks are identified with a view to informing policy opportunities, objective setting, adaptation strategies and the research agenda. Key knowledge gaps have already been identified during the implementation of the WFD, such as the links between hydromorphology and ecosystem status, but the overarching importance of linking climate change to these considerations needs to be highlighted. The next generation of (probabilistic) climate change scenarios will present new opportunities and challenges for risk analysis and policy-making.

Integrating Disciplines, Sectors, and Societies to Improve the Definition and Implementation of Environmental Flows for Dammed Amazonian Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, D. A.; Livino, A.; Arias, M. E.; Crouch, T. D.; Anderson, E.; Marques, E.; Dutka-Gianelli, J.

2017-12-01

The Amazon River watershed is the world's largest river basin and provides US$30 billion/yr in ecosystem services to local populations, national societies, and humanity at large. The Amazon is also a relatively untapped source of hydroelectricity for Latin America, and construction of >30 large hydroelectric dams and >170 small dams is currently underway. Hydropower development will have a cascade of physical, ecological, and social effects at local to global scales. While Brazil has well-defined environmental impact assessment and mitigation programs, these efforts often fail to integrate data and knowledge across disciplines, sectors, and societies throughout the dam planning process. Resulting failures of science, policy, and management have had widespread environmental, economic, and social consequences, highlighting the need for an improved theoretical and practical framework for understanding the impacts of Amazon dams and guiding improved management that respects the needs and knowledge of diverse set of stakeholders. We present a conceptual framework that links four central goals: 1) connecting research in different disciplines (interdisciplinarity); 2) incorporating new knowledge into decision making (adaptive management); 3) including perspectives and participation of non-academic participants in knowledge generation (transdisciplinarity); and 4) extending the idea of environmental flows ("how much water does a river need?") to better consider human uses and users through the concept of fluvial anthropology ("how much water does a society need?"). We use this framework to identify opportunities for improved integration strategies within the (Brazilian) hydroelectric power plant planning and implementation "lifecycle." We applied this approach to the contentious Belo Monte dam, where compliance with regulatory requirements, including monitoring for environmental flows, exemplifies the opportunity for applying adaptive management, but also highlights an urgent need for much improved communication with and participation of affected communities.

An ontology-based approach to patient follow-up assessment for continuous and personalized chronic disease management.

PubMed

Zhang, Yi-Fan; Gou, Ling; Zhou, Tian-Shu; Lin, De-Nan; Zheng, Jing; Li, Ye; Li, Jing-Song

2017-08-01

Chronic diseases are complex and persistent clinical conditions that require close collaboration among patients and health care providers in the implementation of long-term and integrated care programs. However, current solutions focus partially on intensive interventions at hospitals rather than on continuous and personalized chronic disease management. This study aims to fill this gap by providing computerized clinical decision support during follow-up assessments of chronically ill patients at home. We proposed an ontology-based framework to integrate patient data, medical domain knowledge, and patient assessment criteria for chronic disease patient follow-up assessments. A clinical decision support system was developed to implement this framework for automatic selection and adaptation of standard assessment protocols to suit patient personal conditions. We evaluated our method in the case study of type 2 diabetic patient follow-up assessments. The proposed framework was instantiated using real data from 115,477 follow-up assessment records of 36,162 type 2 diabetic patients. Standard evaluation criteria were automatically selected and adapted to the particularities of each patient. Assessment results were generated as a general typing of patient overall condition and detailed scoring for each criterion, providing important indicators to the case manager about possible inappropriate judgments, in addition to raising patient awareness of their disease control outcomes. Using historical data as the gold standard, our system achieved a rate of accuracy of 99.93% and completeness of 95.00%. This study contributes to improving the accessibility, efficiency and quality of current patient follow-up services. It also provides a generic approach to knowledge sharing and reuse for patient-centered chronic disease management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Conceptual Framework for Adaptive Project Management in the Department of Defense

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-30

schedule work) established a core set of principles that went unchallenged until the start of the 21st century. This belief that managing...detailed planning, task decomposition and assignment of hours at the start of a project as unnecessary, often wasted effort that sacrifices accuracy...with the illusion of precision. Work, at the task level, is best assigned by the team performing the work as close as possible to the actual start

Situating Green Infrastructure in Context: A Framework for Adaptive Socio-Hydrology in Cities.

PubMed

Schifman, L A; Herrmann, D L; Shuster, W D; Ossola, A; Garmestani, A; Hopton, M E

2017-12-01

Management of urban hydrologic processes using green infrastructure (GI) has largely focused on stormwater management. Thus, design and implementation of GI usually rely on physical site characteristics and local rainfall patterns, and do not typically account for human or social dimensions. This traditional approach leads to highly centralized stormwater management in a disconnected urban landscape, and can deemphasize additional benefits that GI offers, such as increased property value, greenspace aesthetics, heat island amelioration, carbon sequestration, and habitat for biodiversity. We propose a Framework for Adaptive Socio-Hydrology (FrASH) in which GI planning and implementation moves from a purely hydrology-driven perspective to an integrated socio-hydrological approach. This allows for an iterative, multifaceted decision-making process that would enable a network of stakeholders to collaboratively set a dynamic, context-guided project plan for the installation of GI, rather than a 'one-size-fits-all' installation. We explain how different sectors (e.g., governance, non-governmental organizations, academia, and industry) can create a connected network of organizations that work towards a common goal. Through a graphical Chambered Nautilus model, FrASH is experimentally applied to contrasting GI case studies and shows that this multi-stakeholder, connected, de-centralized network with a co-evolving decision-making project plan results in enhanced multi-functionality, potentially allowing for the management of resilience in urban systems at multiple scales.

Situating Green Infrastructure in Context: A Framework for Adaptive Socio-Hydrology in Cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schifman, L. A.; Herrmann, D. L.; Shuster, W. D.; Ossola, A.; Garmestani, A.; Hopton, M. E.

2017-12-01

Management of urban hydrologic processes using green infrastructure (GI) has largely focused on storm water management. Thus, design and implementation of GI usually rely on physical site characteristics and local rainfall patterns, and do not typically account for human or social dimensions. This traditional approach leads to highly centralized storm water management in a disconnected urban landscape and can deemphasize additional benefits that GI offers, such as increased property value, greenspace aesthetics, heat island amelioration, carbon sequestration, and habitat for biodiversity. We propose the Framework for Adaptive Socio-Hydrology (FrASH) in which GI planning and implementation moves from a purely hydrology-driven perspective to an integrated sociohydrological approach. This allows for an iterative, multifaceted decision-making process that would enable a network of stakeholders to collaboratively set a dynamic, context-guided project plan for the installation of GI, rather than a "one-size-fits-all" installation. We explain how different sectors (e.g., governance, nongovernmental organizations, communities, academia, and industry) can create a connected network of organizations that work toward a common goal. Through a graphical Chambered Nautilus model, FrASH is experimentally applied to contrasting GI case studies and shows that this multistakeholder, connected, decentralized network with a coevolving decision-making project plan results in enhanced multifunctionality, potentially allowing for the management of resilience in urban systems at multiple scales.

Assembling evidence for identifying reservoirs of infection.

PubMed

Viana, Mafalda; Mancy, Rebecca; Biek, Roman; Cleaveland, Sarah; Cross, Paul C; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Haydon, Daniel T

2014-05-01

Many pathogens persist in multihost systems, making the identification of infection reservoirs crucial for devising effective interventions. Here, we present a conceptual framework for classifying patterns of incidence and prevalence, and review recent scientific advances that allow us to study and manage reservoirs simultaneously. We argue that interventions can have a crucial role in enriching our mechanistic understanding of how reservoirs function and should be embedded as quasi-experimental studies in adaptive management frameworks. Single approaches to the study of reservoirs are unlikely to generate conclusive insights whereas the formal integration of data and methodologies, involving interventions, pathogen genetics, and contemporary surveillance techniques, promises to open up new opportunities to advance understanding of complex multihost systems. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Adaptive harvest management: Adjustments for SEIS 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boomer, Scott; Johnson, Fred A.; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.

2015-01-01

This report provides a summary of revised methods and assessment results based on updated adaptive harvest management (AHM) protocols developed in response to the preferred alternative specified in the Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement on the Issuance of Annual Regulations Permitting the Hunting of Migratory Birds (SEIS; U.S. Department of the Interior 2013). We describe necessary changes to optimization procedures and decision processes for the implementation of AHM for midcontinent, eastern and western mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), northern pintails (Anas acuta), and scaup (Aythya affinis, A. marila) decision frameworks. We present this final report for communication purposes, and acknowledge that any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

Toward consensus on self-management support: the international chronic condition self-management support framework.

PubMed

Mills, Susan L; Brady, Teresa J; Jayanthan, Janaki; Ziabakhsh, Shabnam; Sargious, Peter M

2017-12-01

Self-management support (SMS) initiatives have been hampered by insufficient attention to underserved and disadvantaged populations, a lack of integration between health, personal and social domains, over emphasis on individual responsibility and insufficient attention to ethical issues. This paper describes a SMS framework that provides guidance in developing comprehensive and coordinated approaches to SMS that may address these gaps and provides direction for decision makers in developing and implementing SMS initiatives in key areas at local levels. The framework was developed by researchers, policy-makers, practitioners and consumers from 5 English-speaking countries and reviewed by 203 individuals in 16 countries using an e-survey process. While developments in SMS will inevitably reflect local and regional contexts and needs, the strategic framework provides an emerging consensus on how we need to move SMS conceptualization, planning and development forward. The framework provides definitions of self-management (SM) and SMS, a collective vision, eight guiding principles and seven strategic directions. The framework combines important and relevant SM issues into a strategic document that provides potential value to the SMS field by helping decision-makers plan SMS initiatives that reflect local and regional needs and by catalyzing and expanding our thinking about the SMS field in relation to system thinking; shared responsibility; health equity and ethical issues. The framework was developed with the understanding that our knowledge and experience of SMS is continually evolving and that it should be modified and adapted as more evidence is available, and approaches in SMS advance. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Adaptive Leadership Framework for Chronic Illness

PubMed Central

Anderson, Ruth A.; Bailey, Donald E.; Wu, Bei; Corazzini, Kirsten; McConnell, Eleanor S.; Thygeson, N. Marcus; Docherty, Sharron L.

2015-01-01

We propose the Adaptive Leadership Framework for Chronic Illness as a novel framework for conceptualizing, studying, and providing care. This framework is an application of the Adaptive Leadership Framework developed by Heifetz and colleagues for business. Our framework views health care as a complex adaptive system and addresses the intersection at which people with chronic illness interface with the care system. We shift focus from symptoms to symptoms and the challenges they pose for patients/families. We describe how providers and patients/families might collaborate to create shared meaning of symptoms and challenges to coproduce appropriate approaches to care. PMID:25647829

ÉquiNanos: innovative team for nanoparticle risk management.

PubMed

Nadeau, Sylvie; Bouchard, Michèle; Debia, Maximilien; DeMarcellis-Warin, Nathalie; Hallé, Stéphane; Songmene, Victor; Therrien, Marie-Christine; Wilkinson, Kevin; Ateme-Nguema, Barthélémy; Dufour, Geneviève; Dufresne, André; Fatisson, Julien; Haddad, Sami; Hadioui, Madjid; Kouam, Jules; Morency, François; Tardif, Robert; Viens, Martin; Weichenthal, Scott; Viau, Claude; Camus, Michel

2013-01-01

Interactions between nanoparticles (NP), humans and the environment are not fully understood yet. Moreover, frameworks aiming at protecting human health have not been adapted to NP but are nonetheless applied to NP-related activities. Consequently, business organizations currently have to deal with NP-related risks despite the lack of a proven effective method of risk-management. To respond to these concerns and fulfill the needs of populations and industries, ÉquiNanos was created as a largely interdisciplinary provincial research team in Canada. ÉquiNanos consists of eight platforms with different areas of action, from adaptive decision-aid tool to public and legal governance, while including biological monitoring. ÉquiNanos resources aim at responding to the concerns of the Quebec nanotechnology industry and public health authorities. Our mandate is to understand the impact of NP on human health in order to protect the population against all potential risks emerging from these high-priority and rapidly expanding innovative technologies. In this paper by Canadian authors an important framework is discussed with the goal of acquiring more detailed information and establishing an infrastructure to evaluate the interaction between nanoparticles and living organisms, with the ultimate goal of safety and risk management of the rapidly growing fields of nanotechnology-based biological applications. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Work-related stress risk assessment in Italy: a methodological proposal adapted to regulatory guidelines.

PubMed

Persechino, Benedetta; Valenti, Antonio; Ronchetti, Matteo; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Di Tecco, Cristina; Vitali, Sara; Iavicoli, Sergio

2013-06-01

Work-related stress is one of the major causes of occupational ill health. In line with the regulatory framework on occupational health and safety (OSH), adequate models for assessing and managing risk need to be identified so as to minimize the impact of this stress not only on workers' health, but also on productivity. After close analysis of the Italian and European reference regulatory framework and work-related stress assessment and management models used in some European countries, we adopted the UK Health and Safety Executive's (HSE) Management Standards (MS) approach, adapting it to the Italian context in order to provide a suitable methodological proposal for Italy. We have developed a work-related stress risk assessment strategy, meeting regulatory requirements, now available on a specific web platform that includes software, tutorials, and other tools to assist companies in their assessments. This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons.

Work-Related Stress Risk Assessment in Italy: A Methodological Proposal Adapted to Regulatory Guidelines

PubMed Central

Persechino, Benedetta; Valenti, Antonio; Ronchetti, Matteo; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Di Tecco, Cristina; Vitali, Sara; Iavicoli, Sergio

2013-01-01

Background Work-related stress is one of the major causes of occupational ill health. In line with the regulatory framework on occupational health and safety (OSH), adequate models for assessing and managing risk need to be identified so as to minimize the impact of this stress not only on workers' health, but also on productivity. Methods After close analysis of the Italian and European reference regulatory framework and work-related stress assessment and management models used in some European countries, we adopted the UK Health and Safety Executive's (HSE) Management Standards (MS) approach, adapting it to the Italian context in order to provide a suitable methodological proposal for Italy. Results We have developed a work-related stress risk assessment strategy, meeting regulatory requirements, now available on a specific web platform that includes software, tutorials, and other tools to assist companies in their assessments. Conclusion This methodological proposal is new on the Italian work-related stress risk assessment scene. Besides providing an evaluation approach using scientifically validated instruments, it ensures the active participation of occupational health professionals in each company. The assessment tools provided enable companies not only to comply with the law, but also to contribute to a database for monitoring and assessment and give access to a reserved area for data analysis and comparisons. PMID:23961332

Water Management Decisions within a Changing Hydrologic Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegner, D. L.

2013-12-01

Across the United States and around the world we are facing unprecedented demands on our surface and ground water. Increasing population demands coupled with maintaining water quality, supporting species and ecosystem services, distribution of supply, hydrologic variability associated with changing climatic conditions - all require us to look more rigorously at the intersection of policy, management and science. The water supply and hydroelectric constituencies has embraced the concept of Adaptive Management in balancing the needs of resources, people, economies and providing ecosystem support. In its infancy Adaptive Management was employed as a way to move forward on dam operation and reservoir management decisions while recognizing the unknowns of how up or downstream physical and biological elements of freshwater systems would respond. River science at the time was not mature or expansive enough to address the interrelated and complex impacts of the nuances of changing operations of dams. Adaptive Management, the concept, made good sense and has provided a framework to inform management and policy decisions while keeping the door open for integrating new knowledge into a management matrix - the essence of adaptation. The application of Adaptive Management principles has continued to expand as water management demands increase. The application and reality of the use of Adaptive Management has had variable success. In the United States we have over 25 federal agencies that have water in their mission statements. Combine this with 50 states with their own water management requirements, Native American Tribes, and countless watershed and local water supply constraints and you get a sense of the challenge associated with collaborating and addressing water management issues. Without having a set of national water objectives and goals (a National Water Policy) it is up to the collaboration and integration of the multiple water silos with appropriate science. It is within this context that river restoration and management case studies will be explored to evaluate opportunities, challenges, the process of integrating science-policy-management, and some perspectives on the possible options for building a water future. A water future that embraces the essence of Adaptive Management without using the concept as a convenient mechanism for avoiding having to make difficult decisions on water management. The review will include assessing the application of various tools including hydrologic and ecosystem models, experimental floods, channel-cleansing flows, manipulation of habitats, and seasonal allocation of water to provide flooding of estuary habitats and river mouths for water volume and water quality purposes.

Exploring Pacific Northwest ecosystem resilience: packaging climate change science for federal managers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachelet, D. M.

2014-12-01

Climate change is projected to jeopardize ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest. Managing ecosystems for future resilience requires collaboration, innovation and communication. The abundance of data and documents describing the uncertainty around both climate change projections and impacts has become challenging to managers who have little funding and limited time to digest and incorporate these materials into planning and implementation documents. We worked with US Forest Service and BLM managers to help them develop vulnerability assessments and identify on-the-ground strategies to address climate change challenges on the federal lands in northwest Oregon (Siuslaw, Willamette and Mt. Hood National Forests; Eugene and Salem BLM Districts). We held workshops to promote dialogue about climate change, which were particularly effective in fostering discussions between the managers who often do not have the time to share their knowledge and compare experiences across administrative boundaries. We used the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) framework to identify measurable management objectives and rapidly assess local vulnerabilities. We used databasin.org to centralize usable information, including state-of-the-art CMIP5 climate projections, for the mandated assessments of vulnerability and resilience. We introduced participants to a decision support framework providing opportunities to develop more effective adaptation strategies. We built a special web page to hold the information gathered at the workshops and provide easy access to climate change information. We are now working with several Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) to design gateways - conservation atlases - to their relevant data repositories on databasin.org and working with them to develop web tools that can provide usable information for their own vulnerability assessments.

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, locations that may be unusually buffered from climate change effects so as to increase persistence of valued resources. Here we distinguish between paleoecological and contemporary viewpoints, characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia, summarize the process of identifying and mapping them, and delineate how refugia can fit into the existing framework of natural resource management. We also suggest three primary courses of action at these sites: prioritization, protection, and propagation. Although not a panacea, managing climate change refugia can be an important adaptation option for conserving valuable resources in the face of ongoing and future climate change. “In a nutshell” (100 words) • Climate change refugia are defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, enabling persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources. • Refugia can be incorporated as key components of a climate adaptation strategy because their prioritization by management may enable their associated resources to persist locally and eventually spread to future suitable habitat. • Steps for

Collaboration management framework for OEM - suppliers relationships: a trust-based conceptual approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belkadi, Farouk; Messaadia, Mourad; Bernard, Alain; Baudry, David

2017-08-01

Due to the increased competitiveness and the diversity of requirements in today's markets, manufacturing companies need to join their competencies and resources to propose innovative solutions for each specific market, with the possibility to transpose these solutions to another market, by means of slight adaptations. Thus, manufacturing firms must constantly conduct new collaborations with known partners in most cases, but also with new partners. The critical question for managers in this latter case is how to define the best collaborative strategy according to the goals of the project and the specificity of the target market. This paper tackles the problem by proposing a conceptual framework for supporting the management of collaborative situations in the case of Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Based on the concept of trust level, the framework proposes a classification of different collaboration modes to be adopted in various contexts of inter-enterprise relationships, in manufacturing sector. The aim is to support the flexible navigation between different collaborative situations by taking into account all decision-making levels from the strategy to the implementation of the information technologies (IT) systems at the operational level.

An adaptive, comprehensive monitoring strategy for chemicals of emerging concern (CECs) in California's Aquatic Ecosystems.

PubMed

Maruya, Keith A; Schlenk, Daniel; Anderson, Paul D; Denslow, Nancy D; Drewes, Jörg E; Olivieri, Adam W; Scott, Geoffrey I; Snyder, Shane A

2014-01-01

A scientific advisory panel was convened by the State of California to recommend monitoring for chemicals of emerging concern (CECs) in aquatic systems that receive discharge of municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) effluent and stormwater runoff. The panel developed a risk-based screening framework that considered environmental sources and fate of CECs observed in receiving waters across the State. Using existing occurrence and risk threshold data in water, sediment, and biological tissue, the panel applied the framework to identify a priority list of CECs for initial monitoring in three representative receiving water scenarios. The initial screening list of 16 CECs identified by the panel included consumer and commercial chemicals, flame retardants, pesticides, pharmaceuticals and personal care products, and natural hormones. The panel designed an iterative, phased strategy with interpretive guidelines that direct and update management actions commensurate with potential risk identified using the risk-based framework and monitoring data. Because of the ever-changing nature of chemical use, technology, and management practices, the panel offered recommendations to improve CEC monitoring, including development of bioanalytical screening methods whose responses integrate exposure to complex mixtures and that can be linked to higher-order effects; development or refinement of models that predict the input, fate, and effects of future chemicals; and filling of key data gaps on CEC occurrence and toxicity. Finally, the panel stressed the need for adaptive management, allowing for future review of, and if warranted, modifications to the strategy to incorporate the latest science available to the water resources community. © 2013 SETAC.

Sustainable nanotechnology decision support system: bridging risk management, sustainable innovation and risk governance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subramanian, Vrishali; Semenzin, Elena; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Malsch, Ineke; McAlea, Eamonn; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin; van Harmelen, Toon; Ligthart, Tom; Linkov, Igor; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The significant uncertainties associated with the (eco)toxicological risks of engineered nanomaterials pose challenges to the development of nano-enabled products toward greatest possible societal benefit. This paper argues for the use of risk governance approaches to manage nanotechnology risks and sustainability, and considers the links between these concepts. Further, seven risk assessment and management criteria relevant to risk governance are defined: (a) life cycle thinking, (b) triple bottom line, (c) inclusion of stakeholders, (d) risk management, (e) benefit-risk assessment, (f) consideration of uncertainty, and (g) adaptive response. These criteria are used to compare five well-developed nanotechnology frameworks: International Risk Governance Council framework, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment, Streaming Life Cycle Risk Assessment, Certifiable Nanospecific Risk Management and Monitoring System and LICARA NanoSCAN. A Sustainable Nanotechnology Decision Support System (SUNDS) is proposed to better address current nanotechnology risk assessment and management needs, and makes. Stakeholder needs were solicited for further SUNDS enhancement through a stakeholder workshop that included representatives from regulatory, industry and insurance sectors. Workshop participants expressed the need for the wider adoption of sustainability assessment methods and tools for designing greener nanomaterials.

Adaptive leadership framework for chronic illness: framing a research agenda for transforming care delivery.

PubMed

Anderson, Ruth A; Bailey, Donald E; Wu, Bei; Corazzini, Kirsten; McConnell, Eleanor S; Thygeson, N Marcus; Docherty, Sharron L

2015-01-01

We propose the Adaptive Leadership Framework for Chronic Illness as a novel framework for conceptualizing, studying, and providing care. This framework is an application of the Adaptive Leadership Framework developed by Heifetz and colleagues for business. Our framework views health care as a complex adaptive system and addresses the intersection at which people with chronic illness interface with the care system. We shift focus from symptoms to symptoms and the challenges they pose for patients/families. We describe how providers and patients/families might collaborate to create shared meaning of symptoms and challenges to coproduce appropriate approaches to care.

Introduced species as evolutionary traps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schlaepfer, Martin A.; Sherman, P.W.; Blossey, B.; Runge, M.C.

2005-01-01

Invasive species can alter environments in such a way that normal behavioural decision-making rules of native species are no longer adaptive. The evolutionary trap concept provides a useful framework for predicting and managing the impact of harmful invasive species. We discuss how native species can respond to changes in their selective regime via evolution or learning. We also propose novel management strategies to promote the long-term co-existence of native and introduced species in cases where the eradication of the latter is either economically or biologically unrealistic.

Nurse Aide Empowerment Strategies and Staff Stability: Effects on Nursing Home Resident Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barry, Theresa; Brannon, Diane; Mor, Vincent

2005-01-01

Purpose: This study examines the moderating effect of staff stability on the relationship between management practices used to empower nurse aides and resident outcomes in a multistate sample of nursing homes. An adaptation of Kanter's theory of structural power in organizations guided the framework for the model used in this study. Design and…

Exploring the Relationship between Assets and Family Stress among Low-Income Families

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rothwell, David W.; Han, Chang-Keun

2010-01-01

The "hard times" resulting from the 2008 Great Recession represent an opportunity to re-examine the theoretical framework for how families use economic resources to manage stress. M. Sherraden's (1991) theory of assets and H. I. McCubbin and J. Patterson's (1983) family adjustment and adaptation response model informed this study of how assets…

A conceptual model of childhood adaptation to type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Whittemore, Robin; Jaser, Sarah; Guo, Jia; Grey, Margaret

2010-01-01

The Childhood Adaptation Model to Chronic Illness: Diabetes Mellitus was developed to identify factors that influence childhood adaptation to type 1 diabetes (T1D). Since this model was proposed, considerable research has been completed. The purpose of this article is to update the model on childhood adaptation to T1D using research conducted since the original model was proposed. The framework suggests that, in individuals and families, characteristics such as age and socioeconomic status as well as the individuals' and families' responses (self-management, coping, self-efficacy, family functioning, social competence) influence the level of adaptation; in children with T1D, characteristics such as treatment modality (pump vs injections) and psychosocial responses (depressive symptoms and anxiety) also influence the level of adaptation. Adaptation has both physiologic (metabolic control) and psychosocial (Quality of Life [QOL]) components. This revised model provides greater specificity to the factors that influence adaptation to chronic illness in children. Research and clinical implications are discussed. Copyright © 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Applying Reflective Middleware Techniques to Optimize a QoS-enabled CORBA Component Model Implementation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Nanbor; Parameswaran, Kirthika; Kircher, Michael; Schmidt, Douglas

2003-01-01

Although existing CORBA specifications, such as Real-time CORBA and CORBA Messaging, address many end-to-end quality-of service (QoS) properties, they do not define strategies for configuring these properties into applications flexibly, transparently, and adaptively. Therefore, application developers must make these configuration decisions manually and explicitly, which is tedious, error-prone, and open sub-optimal. Although the recently adopted CORBA Component Model (CCM) does define a standard configuration framework for packaging and deploying software components, conventional CCM implementations focus on functionality rather than adaptive quality-of-service, which makes them unsuitable for next-generation applications with demanding QoS requirements. This paper presents three contributions to the study of middleware for QoS-enabled component-based applications. It outlines rejective middleware techniques designed to adaptively (1) select optimal communication mechanisms, (2) manage QoS properties of CORBA components in their contain- ers, and (3) (re)con$gure selected component executors dynamically. Based on our ongoing research on CORBA and the CCM, we believe the application of rejective techniques to component middleware will provide a dynamically adaptive and (re)configurable framework for COTS software that is well-suited for the QoS demands of next-generation applications.

Does the law stymie the science? The role of law in achieving sustainable groundwater management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allan, A.

2012-04-01

Legal frameworks for the management of groundwater evolved in an environment where scientific understanding of the resource was sketchy. As hydrogeological knowledge has improved over time, the law has often failed to catch up and enforcement of those laws that are in place has proved difficult. Consequently, groundwater in many countries is still managed by inadequate regimes that are unable to effectively integrate the impacts of land use management and surface water interactions. The Water Framework Directive and its associated Groundwater Directive require the integrated management of both ground and surface waters, but on a global level, this is unusual. Institutional frameworks often perpetuate this split, and the legal regime for the management of transboundary shared aquifers is a work in progress. Both national and international frameworks encourage a race to over-exploit groundwater resources. Symptomatic of the problems currently seen in groundwater management is a widespread inability to adapt to changing climate and environmental conditions. Users may be granted unchangeable rights of use in perpetuity, and the impacts of aquifer over-exploitation on dependent ecosystems may be ignored. There are therefore significant barriers to the application of existing science in many countries, and this seriously jeopardises efforts to sustainably manage groundwater. This presentation will assess current developments in the laws relating to the use of groundwater around the world, highlighting case studies from India, Australia and the USA, and assessing the implementation of the Groundwater Directive in selected European countries (in work derived from the EU-funded GENESIS project). It will also examine the legal architecture relating to international shared aquifers, and the extent to which it can cope with national groundwater use patterns that will shift in response to climate change and its consequences.

DROUGHT IN THE ANTHROPOCENE: what/who causes abnormally dry conditions? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Loon, A.; Van Lanen, H.

2013-12-01

Deforestation for agriculture, reservoir construction for hydropower, groundwater abstraction for irrigation, river diversion for navigation. These are only some examples of human interventions in river basins. The consequences of these interventions can be far-reaching, but are often difficult to distinguish from natural influences on the water system, such as meteorological droughts. River basin managers in water-stressed regions need to quantify both human and natural effects on the water system to adapt their water management accordingly. ';Drought' is a natural hazard, which is caused by climatic processes and their intrinsic variability, and cannot be prevented by short-term, local water management. ';Water scarcity' refers to the long-term unsustainable use of water resources and is a process that water managers and policy makers can influence. Water scarcity and drought are keywords for river basin managers in water-stressed regions, like Australia, California, China and the Mediterranean Basin. The interrelationship between drought and water scarcity, however, is complex. In regions with low water availability and high human pressures, water scarcity situations are common and can be exacerbated by drought events. The worst situation is a multi-year drought in a (semi )arid region with high demand for water. In monitoring the hydrological system for water management purposes, it is difficult (but essential) to determine which part of the temporal variation in a hydrological variable is caused by water scarcity (human induced) and which part by drought (natural). So the urgent question of many water managers is: how to distinguish between water scarcity and drought? Here, we present a new quantitative approach to distinguish, namely the observation-modelling framework proposed by Van Loon and Van Lanen (2013) to separate natural (drought) and human (water scarcity) effects on the hydrological system. The basis of the framework is simulation of the situation that would have occurred without human influence, i.e. the ';naturalised' situation, using a hydrological model. The resulting time series of naturalised state variables and fluxes can then be compared to observed time series. Additionally, anomalies (i.e. deviations from a threshold) are determined from both time series and compared. This analysis allows for quantification of the relative effect of drought and water scarcity. To show the general applicability of the framework, we investigated case study areas with contrasting climate and catchment properties in Spain, Czech Republic and the Netherlands. Using these case study areas we could analyse the effect of groundwater abstraction and water transfer on groundwater levels and streamflow. The proposed observation-modelling framework is rather generic. We demonstrate the range of methods that can be used and the range of human influences the framework can be applied to. The observation-modelling framework can help water managers, policy makers and stakeholders in water-stressed regions to combat water scarcity, and to better adapt to drought by decreasing their vulnerability. A clear distinction between drought and water scarcity is needed in the anthropocene.

NCCN Frameworks for Resource Stratification of NCCN Guidelines: Adult Cancer Pain and Palliative Care.

PubMed

Swarm, Robert A; Dans, Maria

2018-05-01

The NCCN Framework aims to provide adapted guidelines for low- and middle-resource countries to improve the experience of patients with cancer. In particular, the NCCN Frameworks for Adult Cancer Pain and Palliative Care and were designed to help expand access to pain management and palliative care for patients in low-resource countries. The NCCN Framework is one of several tools that can improve cancer care in the developing world. The NCCN Harmonized Guidelines for Sub-Saharan Africa, a collaborative effort between NCCN, American Cancer Society, Clinton Health Access Initiative, and African Cancer Coalition, was developed to harmonize NCCN recommendations with local guidelines across Africa and to make best use of available services and resources. Copyright © 2018 by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network.

Modeling the Internet of Things, Self-Organizing and Other Complex Adaptive Communication Networks: A Cognitive Agent-Based Computing Approach

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background Computer Networks have a tendency to grow at an unprecedented scale. Modern networks involve not only computers but also a wide variety of other interconnected devices ranging from mobile phones to other household items fitted with sensors. This vision of the "Internet of Things" (IoT) implies an inherent difficulty in modeling problems. Purpose It is practically impossible to implement and test all scenarios for large-scale and complex adaptive communication networks as part of Complex Adaptive Communication Networks and Environments (CACOONS). The goal of this study is to explore the use of Agent-based Modeling as part of the Cognitive Agent-based Computing (CABC) framework to model a Complex communication network problem. Method We use Exploratory Agent-based Modeling (EABM), as part of the CABC framework, to develop an autonomous multi-agent architecture for managing carbon footprint in a corporate network. To evaluate the application of complexity in practical scenarios, we have also introduced a company-defined computer usage policy. Results The conducted experiments demonstrated two important results: Primarily CABC-based modeling approach such as using Agent-based Modeling can be an effective approach to modeling complex problems in the domain of IoT. Secondly, the specific problem of managing the Carbon footprint can be solved using a multiagent system approach. PMID:26812235

Building on the EGIPPS performance assessment: the multipolar framework as a heuristic to tackle the complexity of performance of public service oriented health care organisations

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Performance of health care systems is a key concern of policy makers and health service managers all over the world. It is also a major challenge, given its multidimensional nature that easily leads to conceptual and methodological confusion. This is reflected by a scarcity of models that comprehensively analyse health system performance. Discussion In health, one of the most comprehensive performance frameworks was developed by the team of Leggat and Sicotte. Their framework integrates 4 key organisational functions (goal attainment, production, adaptation to the environment, and values and culture) and the tensions between these functions. We modified this framework to better fit the assessment of the performance of health organisations in the public service domain and propose an analytical strategy that takes it into the social complexity of health organisations. The resulting multipolar performance framework (MPF) is a meta-framework that facilitates the analysis of the relations and interactions between the multiple actors that influence the performance of health organisations. Summary Using the MPF in a dynamic reiterative mode not only helps managers to identify the bottlenecks that hamper performance, but also the unintended effects and feedback loops that emerge. Similarly, it helps policymakers and programme managers at central level to better anticipate the potential results and side effects of and required conditions for health policies and programmes and to steer their implementation accordingly. PMID:24742181

Integrating top-down and bottom-up approaches to design a cost-effective and equitable programme of measures for adaptation of a river basin to global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girard, Corentin; Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2016-04-01

Adaptation to the multiple facets of global change challenges the conventional means of sustainably planning and managing water resources at the river basin scale. Numerous demand or supply management options are available, from which adaptation measures need to be selected in a context of high uncertainty of future conditions. Given the interdependency of water users, agreements need to be found at the local level to implement the most effective adaptation measures. Therefore, this work develops an approach combining economics and water resources engineering to select a cost-effective programme of adaptation measures in the context of climate change uncertainty, and to define an equitable allocation of the cost of the adaptation plan between the stakeholders involved. A framework is developed to integrate inputs from the two main approaches commonly used to plan for adaptation. The first, referred to as "top-down", consists of a modelling chain going from global greenhouse gases emission scenarios to local hydrological models used to assess the impact of climate change on water resources. Conversely, the second approach, called "bottom-up", starts from assessing vulnerability at the local level to then identify adaptation measures used to face an uncertain future. The methodological framework presented in this contribution relies on a combination of these two approaches to support the selection of adaptation measures at the local level. Outcomes from these two approaches are integrated to select a cost-effective combination of adaptation measures through a least-cost optimization model developed at the river basin scale. The performances of a programme of measures are assessed under different climate projections to identify cost-effective and least-regret adaptation measures. The issue of allocating the cost of the adaptation plan is considered through two complementary perspectives. The outcome of a negotiation process between the stakeholders is modelled through the implementation of cooperative game theory to define cost allocation scenarios. These results are compared with cost allocation rules based on social justice principles to provide contrasted insights into a negotiation process. The interdisciplinary framework developed in this research combines economics and water resources engineering methods, establishing a promising means of bridging the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches and supporting the creation of cost-effective and equitable adaptation plans at the local level. The approach has been applied to the Orb river basin in Southern France. Acknowledgements The study has been partially supported by the IMPADAPT project /CGL2013-48424-C2-1-R) from the Spanish ministry MINECO (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad) and European FEDER funds. Corentin Girard is supported by a grant from the University Lecturer Training Program (FPU12/03803) of the Ministry of Education, Culture and Sports of Spain.

Autonomic Management of Application Workflows on Hybrid Computing Infrastructure

DOE PAGES

Kim, Hyunjoo; el-Khamra, Yaakoub; Rodero, Ivan; ...

2011-01-01

In this paper, we present a programming and runtime framework that enables the autonomic management of complex application workflows on hybrid computing infrastructures. The framework is designed to address system and application heterogeneity and dynamics to ensure that application objectives and constraints are satisfied. The need for such autonomic system and application management is becoming critical as computing infrastructures become increasingly heterogeneous, integrating different classes of resources from high-end HPC systems to commodity clusters and clouds. For example, the framework presented in this paper can be used to provision the appropriate mix of resources based on application requirements and constraints.more » The framework also monitors the system/application state and adapts the application and/or resources to respond to changing requirements or environment. To demonstrate the operation of the framework and to evaluate its ability, we employ a workflow used to characterize an oil reservoir executing on a hybrid infrastructure composed of TeraGrid nodes and Amazon EC2 instances of various types. Specifically, we show how different applications objectives such as acceleration, conservation and resilience can be effectively achieved while satisfying deadline and budget constraints, using an appropriate mix of dynamically provisioned resources. Our evaluations also demonstrate that public clouds can be used to complement and reinforce the scheduling and usage of traditional high performance computing infrastructure.« less

Towards a Duty of Care for Biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Earl, G.; Curtis, A.; Allan, C.

2010-04-01

The decline in biodiversity is a worldwide phenomenon, with current rates of species extinction more dramatic than any previously recorded. Habitat loss has been identified as the major cause of biodiversity decline. In this article we suggest that a statutory duty of care would complement the current mix of policy options for biodiversity conservation. Obstacles hindering the introduction of a statutory duty of care include linguistic ambiguity about the terms ‘duty of care’ and ‘stewardship’ and how they are applied in a natural resource management context, and the absence of a mechanism to guide its implementation. Drawing on international literature and key informant interviews we have articulated characteristics of duty of care to reduce linguistic ambiguity, and developed a framework for implementing a duty of care for biodiversity at the regional scale. The framework draws on key elements of the common law ‘duty of care’, the concepts of ‘taking reasonable care’ and ‘avoiding foreseeable harm’, in its logic. Core elements of the framework include desired outcomes for biodiversity, supported by current recommended practices. The focus on outcomes provides opportunities for the development of innovative management practices. The framework incorporates multiple pathways for the redress of non-compliance including tiered negative sanctions, and positive measures to encourage compliance. Importantly, the framework addresses the need for change and adaptation that is a necessary part of biodiversity management.

Towards a duty of care for biodiversity.

PubMed

Earl, G; Curtis, A; Allan, C

2010-04-01

The decline in biodiversity is a worldwide phenomenon, with current rates of species extinction more dramatic than any previously recorded. Habitat loss has been identified as the major cause of biodiversity decline. In this article we suggest that a statutory duty of care would complement the current mix of policy options for biodiversity conservation. Obstacles hindering the introduction of a statutory duty of care include linguistic ambiguity about the terms 'duty of care' and 'stewardship' and how they are applied in a natural resource management context, and the absence of a mechanism to guide its implementation. Drawing on international literature and key informant interviews we have articulated characteristics of duty of care to reduce linguistic ambiguity, and developed a framework for implementing a duty of care for biodiversity at the regional scale. The framework draws on key elements of the common law 'duty of care', the concepts of 'taking reasonable care' and 'avoiding foreseeable harm', in its logic. Core elements of the framework include desired outcomes for biodiversity, supported by current recommended practices. The focus on outcomes provides opportunities for the development of innovative management practices. The framework incorporates multiple pathways for the redress of non-compliance including tiered negative sanctions, and positive measures to encourage compliance. Importantly, the framework addresses the need for change and adaptation that is a necessary part of biodiversity management.

A user's guide to coping with estuarine management bureaucracy: An Estuarine Planning Support System (EPSS) tool.

PubMed

Lonsdale, Jemma; Nicholson, Rose; Weston, Keith; Elliott, Michael; Birchenough, Andrew; Sühring, Roxana

2018-02-01

Estuaries are amongst the most socio-economically and ecologically important environments however, due to competing and conflicting demands, management is often challenging with a complex legislative framework managed by multiple agencies. To facilitate the understanding of this legislative framework, we have developed a GISbased Estuarine Planning Support System tool. The tool integrates the requirements of the relevant legislation and provides a basis for assessing the current environmental state of an estuary as well as informing and assessing new plans to ensure a healthy estuarine state. The tool ensures that the information is easily accessible for regulators, managers, developers and the public. The tool is intended to be adaptable, but is assessed using the Humber Estuary, United Kingdom as a case study area. The successful application of the tool for complex socio-economic and environmental systems demonstrates that the tool can efficiently guide users through the complex requirements needed to support sustainable development. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A criteria and indicators monitoring framework for food forestry embedded in the principles of ecological restoration.

PubMed

Park, Hyeone; Higgs, Eric

2018-02-02

Food forestry is a burgeoning practice in North America, representing a strong multifunctional approach that combines agriculture, forestry, and ecological restoration. The Galiano Conservancy Association (GCA), a community conservation, restoration, and educational organization on Galiano Island, British Columbia in Canada, recently has created two food forests on their protected forested lands: one with primarily non-native species and the other comprising native species. These projects, aimed at food production, education, and promotion of local food security and sustainability, are also intended to contribute to the overall ecological integrity of the landscape. Monitoring is essential for assessing how effectively a project is meeting its goal and thus informing its adaptive management. Yet, presently, there are no comprehensive monitoring frameworks for food forestry available. To fill this need, this study developed a generic Criteria and Indicators (C&I) monitoring framework for food forestry, embedded in ecological restoration principles, by employing qualitative content analysis of 61 literature resources and semi-structured interviews with 16 experts in the fields of food forestry and ecological restoration. The generic C&I framework comprises 14 criteria, 39 indicators, and 109 measures and is intended to guide a comprehensive and systematic assessment for food forest projects. The GCA adapted the generic C&I framework to develop a customized monitoring framework. The Galiano C&I monitoring framework has comprehensive suite of monitoring parameters, which are collectively address multiple values and goals.

A structured interface to the object-oriented genomics unified schema for XML-formatted data.

PubMed

Clark, Terry; Jurek, Josef; Kettler, Gregory; Preuss, Daphe

2005-01-01

Data management systems are fast becoming required components in many biology laboratories as the role of computer-based information grows. Although the need for data management systems is on the rise, their inherent complexities can deter the full and routine use of their computational capabilities. The significant undertaking to implement a capable production system can be reduced in part by adapting an established data management system. In such a way, we are leveraging the Genomics Unified Schema (GUS) developed at the Computational Biology and Informatics Laboratory at the University of Pennsylvania as a foundation for managing and analysing DNA sequence data in centromere research projects around Arabidopsis thaliana and related species. Because GUS provides a core schema that includes support for genome sequences, mRNA and its expression, and annotated chromosomes, it is ideal for synthesising a variety of parameters to analyse these repetitive and highly dynamic portions of the genome. Despite this, production-strength data management frameworks are complex, requiring dedicated efforts to adapt and maintain. The work reported in this article addresses one component of such an effort, namely the pivotal task of marshalling data from various sources into GUS. In order to harness GUS for our project, and motivated by efficiency needs, we developed a structured framework for transferring data into GUS from outside sources. This technology is embodied in a GUS object-layer processor, XMLGUS. XMLGUS facilitates incorporating data into GUS by (i) formulating an XML interface that includes relational database key constraint definitions, (ii) regularising traversal through that XML, (iii) realising automatic processing of the XML with database key constraints and (iv) allowing for special processing of input data within the framework for automated processing. The application of XMLGUS to production pipeline processing for a sequencing project and inputting the Arabidopsis genome into GUS is discussed. XMLGUS is available from the Flora website (http://flora.ittc.ku.edu/).

Transmission models and management of lymphatic filariasis elimination.

PubMed

Michael, Edwin; Gambhir, Manoj

2010-01-01

The planning and evaluation of parasitic control programmes are complicated by the many interacting population dynamic and programmatic factors that determine infection trends under different control options. A key need is quantification about the status of the parasite system state at any one given timepoint and the dynamic change brought upon that state as an intervention program proceeds. Here, we focus on the control and elimination of the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis, to show how mathematical models of parasite transmission can provide a quantitative framework for aiding the design of parasite elimination and monitoring programs by their ability to support (1) conducting rational analysis and definition of endpoints for different programmatic aims or objectives, including transmission endpoints for disease elimination, (2) undertaking strategic analysis to aid the optimal design of intervention programs to meet set endpoints under different endemic settings and (3) providing support for performing informed evaluations of ongoing programs, including aiding the formation of timely adaptive management strategies to correct for any observed deficiencies in program effectiveness. The results also highlight how the use of a model-based framework will be critical to addressing the impacts of ecological complexities, heterogeneities and uncertainties on effective parasite management and thereby guiding the development of strategies to resolve and overcome such real-world complexities. In particular, we underscore how this approach can provide a link between ecological science and policy by revealing novel tools and measures to appraise and enhance the biological controllability or eradicability of parasitic diseases. We conclude by emphasizing an urgent need to develop and apply flexible adaptive management frameworks informed by mathematical models that are based on learning and reducing uncertainty using monitoring data, apply phased or sequential decision-making to address extant uncertainty and focus on developing ecologically resilient management strategies, in ongoing efforts to control or eliminate filariasis and other parasitic diseases in resource-poor communities.

Many-objective robust decision making for water allocation under climate change.

PubMed

Yan, Dan; Ludwig, Fulco; Huang, He Qing; Werners, Saskia E

2017-12-31

Water allocation is facing profound challenges due to climate change uncertainties. To identify adaptive water allocation strategies that are robust to climate change uncertainties, a model framework combining many-objective robust decision making and biophysical modeling is developed for large rivers. The framework was applied to the Pearl River basin (PRB), China where sufficient flow to the delta is required to reduce saltwater intrusion in the dry season. Before identifying and assessing robust water allocation plans for the future, the performance of ten state-of-the-art MOEAs (multi-objective evolutionary algorithms) is evaluated for the water allocation problem in the PRB. The Borg multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (Borg MOEA), which is a self-adaptive optimization algorithm, has the best performance during the historical periods. Therefore it is selected to generate new water allocation plans for the future (2079-2099). This study shows that robust decision making using carefully selected MOEAs can help limit saltwater intrusion in the Pearl River Delta. However, the framework could perform poorly due to larger than expected climate change impacts on water availability. Results also show that subjective design choices from the researchers and/or water managers could potentially affect the ability of the model framework, and cause the most robust water allocation plans to fail under future climate change. Developing robust allocation plans in a river basin suffering from increasing water shortage requires the researchers and water managers to well characterize future climate change of the study regions and vulnerabilities of their tools. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Strategic Framework for Responding to Coral Bleaching Events in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maynard, J. A.; Johnson, J. E.; Marshall, P. A.; Eakin, C. M.; Goby, G.; Schuttenberg, H.; Spillman, C. M.

2009-07-01

The frequency and severity of mass coral bleaching events are predicted to increase as sea temperatures continue to warm under a global regime of rising ocean temperatures. Bleaching events can be disastrous for coral reef ecosystems and, given the number of other stressors to reefs that result from human activities, there is widespread concern about their future. This article provides a strategic framework from the Great Barrier Reef to prepare for and respond to mass bleaching events. The framework presented has two main inter-related components: an early warning system and assessment and monitoring. Both include the need to proactively and consistently communicate information on environmental conditions and the level of bleaching severity to senior decision-makers, stakeholders, and the public. Managers, being the most timely and credible source of information on bleaching events, can facilitate the implementation of strategies that can give reefs the best chance to recover from bleaching and to withstand future disturbances. The proposed framework is readily transferable to other coral reef regions, and can easily be adapted by managers to local financial, technical, and human resources.

Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDonald Madden, Eve; Runge, Michael C.; Possingham, Hugh P.; Martin, Tara G.

2011-01-01

Managed relocation is a controversial climate-adaptation strategy to combat negative climate change impacts on biodiversity. While the scientific community debates the merits of managed relocation1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12, species are already being moved to new areas predicted to be more suitable under climate change13,14. To inform these moves, we construct a quantitative decision framework to evaluate the timing of relocation in the face of climate change. We find that the optimal timing depends on many factors, including the size of the population, the demographic costs of translocation and the expected carrying capacities over time in the source and destination habitats. In some settings, such as when a small population would benefit from time to grow before risking translocation losses, haste is ill advised. We also find that active adaptive management15,16 is valuable when the effect of climate change on source habitat is uncertain, and leads to delayed movement.

Principles of effective USA federal fire management plans

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, Marc D.; Roberts, Susan L.; Wills, Robin; Brooks, Matthew L.; Winford, Eric M.

2015-01-01

Federal fire management plans are essential implementation guides for the management of wildland fire on federal lands. Recent changes in federal fire policy implementation guidance and fire science information suggest the need for substantial changes in federal fire management plans of the United States. Federal land management agencies are also undergoing land management planning efforts that will initiate revision of fire management plans across the country. Using the southern Sierra Nevada as a case study, we briefly describe the underlying framework of fire management plans, assess their consistency with guiding principles based on current science information and federal policy guidance, and provide recommendations for the development of future fire management plans. Based on our review, we recommend that future fire management plans be: (1) consistent and compatible, (2) collaborative, (3) clear and comprehensive, (4) spatially and temporally scalable, (5) informed by the best available science, and (6) flexible and adaptive. In addition, we identify and describe several strategic guides or “tools” that can enhance these core principles and benefit future fire management plans in the following areas: planning and prioritization, science integration, climate change adaptation, partnerships, monitoring, education and communication, and applied fire management. These principles and tools are essential to successfully realize fire management goals and objectives in a rapidly changing world.

Including policy and management in socio-hydrology models: initial conceptualizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermans, Leon; Korbee, Dorien

2017-04-01

Socio-hydrology studies the interactions in coupled human-water systems. So far, the use of dynamic models that capture the direct feedback between societal and hydrological systems has been dominant. What has not yet been included with any particular emphasis, is the policy or management layer, which is a central element in for instance integrated water resources management (IWRM) or adaptive delta management (ADM). Studying the direct interactions between human-water systems generates knowledges that eventually helps influence these interactions in ways that may ensure better outcomes - for society and for the health and sustainability of water systems. This influence sometimes occurs through spontaneous emergence, uncoordinated by societal agents - private sector, citizens, consumers, water users. However, the term 'management' in IWRM and ADM also implies an additional coordinated attempt through various public actors. This contribution is a call to include the policy and management dimension more prominently into the research focus of the socio-hydrology field, and offers first conceptual variables that should be considered in attempts to include this policy or management layer in socio-hydrology models. This is done by drawing on existing frameworks to study policy processes throughout both planning and implementation phases. These include frameworks such as the advocacy coalition framework, collective learning and policy arrangements, which all emphasis longer-term dynamics and feedbacks between actor coalitions in strategic planning and implementation processes. A case about longter-term dynamics in the management of the Haringvliet in the Netherlands is used to illustrate the paper.

The development of an acute care case manager orientation.

PubMed

Strzelecki, S; Brobst, R

1997-01-01

The authors describe the development of an inpatient acute care case manager orientation in a community hospital. Benner's application of the Dreyfus model of skill acquisition provides the basis for the orientation program. The candidates for the case manager position were expert clinicians. Because of the role change it was projected that they would function as advanced beginners. It was also predicted that, as the case managers progressed within the role, the educational process would need to be adapted to facilitate progression of skills to the proficient level. Feedback from participants reinforced that the model supported the case manager in the role transition. In addition, the model provided a predictive framework for ongoing educational activities.

An artificial intelligence framework for compensating transgressions and its application to diet management.

PubMed

Anselma, Luca; Mazzei, Alessandro; De Michieli, Franco

2017-04-01

Today, there is considerable interest in personal healthcare. The pervasiveness of technology allows to precisely track human behavior; however, when dealing with the development of an intelligent assistant exploiting data acquired through such technologies, a critical issue has to be taken into account; namely, that of supporting the user in the event of any transgression with respect to the optimal behavior. In this paper we present a reasoning framework based on Simple Temporal Problems that can be applied to a general class of problems, which we called cake&carrot problems, to support reasoning in presence of human transgression. The reasoning framework offers a number of facilities to ensure a smart management of possible "wrong behaviors" by a user to reach the goals defined by the problem. This paper describes the framework by means of the prototypical use case of diet domain. Indeed, following a healthy diet can be a difficult task for both practical and psychological reasons and dietary transgressions are hard to avoid. Therefore, the framework is tolerant to dietary transgressions and adapts the following meals to facilitate users in recovering from such transgressions. Finally, through a simulation involving a real hospital menu, we show that the framework can effectively achieve good results in a realistic scenario. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Institutional framework for integrated Pharmaceutical Benefits Management: results from a systematic review

PubMed Central

Hermanowski, Tomasz Roman; Drozdowska, Aleksandra Krystyna; Kowalczyk, Marta

2015-01-01

Objectives In this paper, we emphasised that effective management of health plans beneficiaries access to reimbursed medicines requires proper institutional set-up. The main objective was to identify and recommend an institutional framework of integrated pharmaceutical care providing effective, safe and equitable access to medicines. Method The institutional framework of drug policy was derived on the basis of publications obtained by systematic reviews. A comparative analysis concerning adaptation of coordinated pharmaceutical care services in the USA, the UK, Poland, Italy, Denmark and Germany was performed. Results While most European Union Member States promote the implementation of selected e-Health tools, like e-Prescribing, these efforts do not necessarily implement an integrated package. There is no single agent who would manage an insured patients’ access to medicines and health care in a coordinated manner, thereby increasing the efficiency and safety of drug policy. More attention should be paid by European Union Member States as to how to integrate various e-Health tools to enhance benefits to both individuals and societies. One solution could be to implement an integrated “pharmacy benefit management” model, which is well established in the USA and Canada and provides an integrated package of cost-containment methods, implemented within a transparent institutional framework and powered by strong motivation of the agent. PMID:26528099

Adapting the US Food System to Climate Change Goes Beyond the Farm Gate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Easterling, W. E.

2014-12-01

The literature on climate change effects on food and agriculture has concentrated primarily on how crops and livestock likely will be directly affected by climate variability and change and by elevated carbon dioxide. Integrated assessments have simulated large-scale economic response to shifting agricultural productivity caused by climate change, including possible changes in food costs and prices. A small but growing literature has shown how different facets of agricultural production inside the farm gate could be adapted to climate variability and change. Very little research has examined how the full food system (production, processing and storage, transportation and trade, and consumption) is likely to be affected by climate change and how different adaptation approaches will be required by different parts of the food system. This paper will share partial results of a major assessment sponsored by USDA to determine how climate change-induced changes in global food security could affect the US food system. Emphasis is given to understanding how adaptation strategies differ widely across the food system. A common thread, however, is risk management-based decision making. Technologies and management strategies may co-evolve with climate change but a risk management framework for implementing those technologies and strategies may provide a stable foundation.

Water scarcity and institutional change: lessons in adaptive governance from the drought experience of Perth, Western Australia.

PubMed

Bettini, Y; Brown, R; de Haan, F J

2013-01-01

Urban water systems will be increasingly challenged under future climates and global pressures. Meeting challenges by reconfiguring water systems to integrate supplies and deliver multifunctional uses is technically well described. Adjusting the institutions that frame the management of these systems is not well operationalized in practice or conceptualized in theory. This study seeks to address this gap through an institutional analysis of Perth, Australia, a city where drought crisis has put under pressure both management practices and the institutional setting that underlies them. The study found that while trusted practices moderated water scarcity, the stability of the institutional setting may not facilitate a shift toward adaptable institutional configurations suited to future conditions. The results identified three key ingredients for a flexible institutional setting: (i) feedbacks in the system through better information management, (ii) reflexive dialogue and strategic use of projects to generate greater learning opportunities, and (iii) policy level support for sector-wide collaboration through progressive agendas, incentives for innovation and capacity building in stakeholder and community engagement. Further, the results suggest that a deeper understanding of institutional dynamics is needed to enable adaptive governance. The paper provides an analytical framework for diagnosing how greater adaptive capacity might be mobilized through influencing these dynamics.

An Integrated Systems Approach to Designing Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Water Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, D.; Malano, H. M.; Davidson, B.; George, B.

2014-12-01

Climate change projections are characterised by large uncertainties with rainfall variability being the key challenge in designing adaptation policies. Climate change adaptation in water resources shows all the typical characteristics of 'wicked' problems typified by cognitive uncertainty as new scientific knowledge becomes available, problem instability, knowledge imperfection and strategic uncertainty due to institutional changes that inevitably occur over time. Planning that is characterised by uncertainties and instability requires an approach that can accommodate flexibility and adaptive capacity for decision-making. An ability to take corrective measures in the event that scenarios and responses envisaged initially derive into forms at some future stage. We present an integrated-multidisciplinary and comprehensive framework designed to interface and inform science and decision making in the formulation of water resource management strategies to deal with climate change in the Musi Catchment of Andhra Pradesh, India. At the core of this framework is a dialogue between stakeholders, decision makers and scientists to define a set of plausible responses to an ensemble of climate change scenarios derived from global climate modelling. The modelling framework used to evaluate the resulting combination of climate scenarios and adaptation responses includes the surface and groundwater assessment models (SWAT & MODFLOW) and the water allocation modelling (REALM) to determine the water security of each adaptation strategy. Three climate scenarios extracted from downscaled climate models were selected for evaluation together with four agreed responses—changing cropping patterns, increasing watershed development, changing the volume of groundwater extraction and improving irrigation efficiency. Water security in this context is represented by the combination of level of water availability and its associated security of supply for three economic activities (agriculture, urban, industrial) on a spatially distributed basis. The resulting combinations of climate scenarios and adaptation responses were subjected to a combined hydro-economic assessment based on the degree of water security together with its cost-effectiveness against the Business-as-usual scenario.

Motivation and engagement in music and sport: testing a multidimensional framework in diverse performance settings.

PubMed

Martin, Andrew J

2008-02-01

The present study assessed the application of a multidimensional model of motivation and engagement (the Motivation and Engagement Wheel) and its accompanying instrumentation (the Motivation and Engagement Scale) to the music and sport domains. Participants were 463 young classical musicians (N=224) and sportspeople (N=239). In both music and sport samples, the data confirmed the good fit of the four hypothesized higher-order dimensions and their 11 first-order dimensions: adaptive cognitions (self-efficacy, valuing, mastery orientation), adaptive behaviors (planning, task management, persistence), impeding/maladaptive cognitions (uncertain control, anxiety, failure avoidance), and maladaptive behaviors (self-handicapping, disengagement). Multigroup tests of factor invariance showed that in terms of underlying motivational constructs and the composition of and relationships among these constructs, key subsamples are not substantially different. Moreover-and of particular relevance to issues around the generalizability of the framework-the factor structure for music and sport samples was predominantly invariant.

Building a Framework in Improving Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadesse, T.; Wall, N.; Haigh, T.; Shiferaw, A. S.; Beyene, S.; Demisse, G. B.; Zaitchik, B.

2015-12-01

Decision makers need a basic understanding of the prediction models and products of hydro-climatic extremes and their suitability in time and space for strategic resource and development planning to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. Advances in our ability to assess and predict climate extremes (e.g., droughts and floods) under evolving climate change suggest opportunity to improve management of climatic/hydrologic risk in agriculture and water resources. In the NASA funded project entitled, "Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies," we are attempting to develop a framework that uses dialogue between managers and scientists on how to enhance the use of models' outputs and prediction products in the GHA as well as improve the delivery of this information in ways that can be easily utilized by managers. This process is expected to help our multidisciplinary research team obtain feedback on the models and forecast products. In addition, engaging decision makers is essential in evaluating the use of drought and flood prediction models and products for decision-making processes in drought and flood management. Through this study, we plan to assess information requirements to implement a robust Early Warning Systems (EWS) by engaging decision makers in the process. This participatory process could also help the existing EWSs in Africa and to develop new local and regional EWSs. In this presentation, we report the progress made in the past two years of the NASA project.

Benchmarking Diagnostic Algorithms on an Electrical Power System Testbed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurtoglu, Tolga; Narasimhan, Sriram; Poll, Scott; Garcia, David; Wright, Stephanie

2009-01-01

Diagnostic algorithms (DAs) are key to enabling automated health management. These algorithms are designed to detect and isolate anomalies of either a component or the whole system based on observations received from sensors. In recent years a wide range of algorithms, both model-based and data-driven, have been developed to increase autonomy and improve system reliability and affordability. However, the lack of support to perform systematic benchmarking of these algorithms continues to create barriers for effective development and deployment of diagnostic technologies. In this paper, we present our efforts to benchmark a set of DAs on a common platform using a framework that was developed to evaluate and compare various performance metrics for diagnostic technologies. The diagnosed system is an electrical power system, namely the Advanced Diagnostics and Prognostics Testbed (ADAPT) developed and located at the NASA Ames Research Center. The paper presents the fundamentals of the benchmarking framework, the ADAPT system, description of faults and data sets, the metrics used for evaluation, and an in-depth analysis of benchmarking results obtained from testing ten diagnostic algorithms on the ADAPT electrical power system testbed.

A multi-layered governance framework for incorporating social science insights into adapting to the health impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Bowen, Kathryn J; Ebi, Kristie; Friel, Sharon; McMichael, Anthony J

2013-09-10

Addressing climate change and its associated effects is a multi-dimensional and ongoing challenge. This includes recognizing that climate change will affect the health and wellbeing of all populations over short and longer terms, albeit in varied ways and intensities. That recognition has drawn attention to the need to take adaptive actions to lessen adverse impacts over the next few decades from unavoidable climate change, particularly in developing country settings. A range of sectors is responsible for appropriate adaptive policies and measures to address the health risks of climate change, including health services, water and sanitation, trade, agriculture, disaster management, and development. To broaden the framing of governance and decision-making processes by using innovative methods and assessments to illustrate the multi-sectoral nature of health-related adaptation to climate change. This is a shift from sector-specific to multi-level systems encompassing sectors and actors, across temporal and spatial scales. A review and synthesis of the current knowledge in the areas of health and climate change adaptation governance and decision-making processes. A novel framework is presented that incorporates social science insights into the formulation and implementation of adaptation activities and policies to lessen the health risks posed by climate change. Clarification of the roles that different sectors, organizations, and individuals occupy in relation to the development of health-related adaptation strategies will facilitate the inclusion of health and wellbeing within multi-sector adaptation policies, thereby strengthening the overall set of responses to minimize the adverse health effects of climate change.

A multi-layered governance framework for incorporating social science insights into adapting to the health impacts of climate change

PubMed Central

Bowen, Kathryn J.; Ebi, Kristie; Friel, Sharon; McMichael, Anthony J.

2013-01-01

Background Addressing climate change and its associated effects is a multi-dimensional and ongoing challenge. This includes recognizing that climate change will affect the health and wellbeing of all populations over short and longer terms, albeit in varied ways and intensities. That recognition has drawn attention to the need to take adaptive actions to lessen adverse impacts over the next few decades from unavoidable climate change, particularly in developing country settings. A range of sectors is responsible for appropriate adaptive policies and measures to address the health risks of climate change, including health services, water and sanitation, trade, agriculture, disaster management, and development. Objectives To broaden the framing of governance and decision-making processes by using innovative methods and assessments to illustrate the multi-sectoral nature of health-related adaptation to climate change. This is a shift from sector-specific to multi-level systems encompassing sectors and actors, across temporal and spatial scales. Design A review and synthesis of the current knowledge in the areas of health and climate change adaptation governance and decision-making processes. Results A novel framework is presented that incorporates social science insights into the formulation and implementation of adaptation activities and policies to lessen the health risks posed by climate change. Conclusion Clarification of the roles that different sectors, organizations, and individuals occupy in relation to the development of health-related adaptation strategies will facilitate the inclusion of health and wellbeing within multi-sector adaptation policies, thereby strengthening the overall set of responses to minimize the adverse health effects of climate change. PMID:24028938

Co-governing decentralised water systems: an analytical framework.

PubMed

Yu, C; Brown, R; Morison, P

2012-01-01

Current discourses in urban water management emphasise a diversity of water sources and scales of infrastructure for resilience and adaptability. During the last 2 decades, in particular, various small-scale systems emerged and developed so that the debate has largely moved from centralised versus decentralised water systems toward governing integrated and networked systems of provision and consumption where small-scale technologies are embedded in large-scale centralised infrastructures. However, while centralised systems have established boundaries of ownership and management, decentralised water systems (such as stormwater harvesting technologies for the street, allotment/house scales) do not, therefore the viability for adoption and/or continued use of decentralised water systems is challenged. This paper brings together insights from the literature on public sector governance, co-production and social practices model to develop an analytical framework for co-governing such systems. The framework provides urban water practitioners with guidance when designing co-governance arrangements for decentralised water systems so that these systems continue to exist, and become widely adopted, within the established urban water regime.

A competency framework for librarians involved in systematic reviews.

PubMed

Townsend, Whitney A; Anderson, Patricia F; Ginier, Emily C; MacEachern, Mark P; Saylor, Kate M; Shipman, Barbara L; Smith, Judith E

2017-07-01

The project identified a set of core competencies for librarians who are involved in systematic reviews. A team of seven informationists with broad systematic review experience examined existing systematic review standards, conducted a literature search, and used their own expertise to identify core competencies and skills that are necessary to undertake various roles in systematic review projects. The team identified a total of six competencies for librarian involvement in systematic reviews: "Systematic review foundations," "Process management and communication," "Research methodology," "Comprehensive searching," "Data management," and "Reporting." Within each competency are the associated skills and knowledge pieces (indicators). Competence can be measured using an adaptation of Miller's Pyramid for Clinical Assessment, either through self-assessment or identification of formal assessment instruments. The Systematic Review Competencies Framework provides a standards-based, flexible way for librarians and organizations to identify areas of competence and areas in need of development to build capacity for systematic review integration. The framework can be used to identify or develop appropriate assessment tools and to target skill development opportunities.

Search for Trustful Leadership in Secondary Schools: Is Empowerment the Solution?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Freire, Carla; Fernandes, António

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to analyse how the access to structures of empowerment by teachers in primary and secondary education impacts on their trust of the headmaster of the school management board. Using the theoretical framework of empowerment and trust in the context of companies, one adapted the constructs of these scales to the reality…

Lessons Learned from Australia: A science-based policy approach to manage California's Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rohde, M. M.; Froend, R.; Howard, J.

2016-12-01

New requirements under California's Sustainable Groundwater Management Act of 2014 (SGMA) requires local Groundwater Sustainability Agencies to identify Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems (GDEs) and consider the interests of environmental beneficial uses and users of groundwater when developing their Groundwater Sustainability Plans. Most local water agencies will be identifying and considering GDEs for the first time under SGMA, and will find this challenging due to a lack of in-house biological and ecologic expertise. Uncertainty around what management triggers and thresholds are needed to prevent harm to GDEs is not only endemic to California, but also worldwide due to a lack of science at the intersection of hydrology and ecology. Australia has, however, has done an exceptional job at reducing uncertainty when selecting management triggers and thresholds for GDEs in their water management plans. This has been achieved by integrating risk assessment into an adaptive management framework that uses monitoring programs to inform management strategies. This "learn by doing" approach has helped close knowledge gaps needed to manage GDEs in response to Australia's national sustainable water management legislation. The two main objectives of this paper are to: 1) synthesize Australia's adaptive management approach of GDEs in state water plans, and 2) highlight opportunities for knowledge transfer from Australia into the California context.

Efficient GIS-based model-driven method for flood risk management and its application in central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Zhou, J.; Song, L.; Zou, Q.; Guo, J.; Wang, Y.

2014-02-01

In recent years, an important development in flood management has been the focal shift from flood protection towards flood risk management. This change greatly promoted the progress of flood control research in a multidisciplinary way. Moreover, given the growing complexity and uncertainty in many decision situations of flood risk management, traditional methods, e.g., tight-coupling integration of one or more quantitative models, are not enough to provide decision support for managers. Within this context, this paper presents a beneficial methodological framework to enhance the effectiveness of decision support systems, through the dynamic adaptation of support regarding the needs of the decision-maker. In addition, we illustrate a loose-coupling technical prototype for integrating heterogeneous elements, such as multi-source data, multidisciplinary models, GIS tools and existing systems. The main innovation is the application of model-driven concepts, which put the system in a state of continuous iterative optimization. We define the new system as a model-driven decision support system (MDSS ). Two characteristics that differentiate the MDSS are as follows: (1) it is made accessible to non-technical specialists; and (2) it has a higher level of adaptability and compatibility. Furthermore, the MDSS was employed to manage the flood risk in the Jingjiang flood diversion area, located in central China near the Yangtze River. Compared with traditional solutions, we believe that this model-driven method is efficient, adaptable and flexible, and thus has bright prospects of application for comprehensive flood risk management.

Designing Forest Adaptation Experiments through Manager-Scientist Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagel, L. M.; Swanston, C.; Janowiak, M.

2014-12-01

Three common forest adaptation options discussed in the context of an uncertain future climate are: creating resistance, promoting resilience, and enabling forests to respond to change. Though there is consensus on the broad management goals addressed by each of these options, translating these concepts into management plans specific for individual forest types that vary in structure, composition, and function remains a challenge. We will describe a decision-making framework that we employed within a manager-scientist partnership to develop a suite of adaptation treatments for two contrasting forest types as part of a long-term forest management experiment. The first, in northern Minnesota, is a red pine-dominated forest with components of white pine, aspen, paper birch, and northern red oak, with a hazel understory. The second, in southwest Colorado, is a warm-dry mixed conifer forest dominated by ponderosa pine, white fir, and Douglas-fir, with scattered aspen and an understory of Gambel oak. The current conditions at both sites are characterized by overstocking with moderate-to-high fuel loading, vulnerability to numerous forest health threats, and are generally uncharacteristic of historic structure and composition. The desired future condition articulated by managers for each site included elements of historic structure and natural range of variability, but were greatly tempered by known vulnerabilities and projected changes to climate and disturbance patterns. The resultant range of treatments we developed are distinct for each forest type, and address a wide range of management objectives.

Soil Health Assessment Approaches and the Cornell Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Es, Harold

2016-04-01

Soil health constraints beyond nutrient limitations and excesses currently limit agroecosystem productivity and sustainability, resilience to drought and extreme rainfall, and progress in soil and water conservation. With mounting pressure to produce food, feed, fiber, and even fuel for an increasing population, the concept of soil health is gaining national and international attention. Multiple regional, national, and global efforts are now leveraging that work to reach new stakeholder audiences, so that soil health management is expanding into mainstream agriculture. Each grower is generally faced with a unique situation in the choice of management options to address soil health constraints and each system affords its own set of opportunities or limitations to soil management. A more comprehensive understanding of soil health status can better guide farmers' management decisions. Until recently, there has not been a formalized decision making process for implementing a soil health management system that alleviates field-specific constrains identified through standard measurements and then maintains improved soil health. This presentation will discuss current US-based efforts related to soil health assessment, including efforts to build national consensus on appropriate methods for simple (inexpensive) and comprehensive tests. This includes the Cornell Soil Health Management Planning and Implementation Framework. The most relevant components of the framework are 1) measurement of indicators that represent critical soil processes, 2) scoring of measured values that allows for interpretation, and 3) linkage of identified constraints with management practices. Land managers can monitor changes over time through further assessment, and adapt management practices to achieve chosen goals. We will discuss the full tests and approaches for simplification.

A psychosocial risk assessment and management framework to enhance response to CBRN terrorism threats and attacks.

PubMed

Lemyre, Louise; Clément, Mélanie; Corneil, Wayne; Craig, Lorraine; Boutette, Paul; Tyshenko, Michael; Karyakina, Nataliya; Clarke, Robert; Krewski, Daniel

2005-01-01

Evidence in the disaster mental health literature indicates that psychosocial consequences of terrorism are a critical component of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) events, both at the clinical level and the normal behavioral and emotional levels. Planning for such psychosocial aspects should be an integral part of emergency preparedness. As Canada and other countries build the capacity to prevent, mitigate, and manage CBRN threats and events, it is important to recognize the range of social, psychological, emotional, spiritual, behavioral, and cognitive factors that may affect victims and their families, communities, children, the elderly, responders, decision makers, and others at all phases of terrorism, from threat to post-impact recovery. A structured process to assist CBRN emergency planners, decision makers, and responders in identifying psychosocial risks, vulnerable populations, resources, and interventions at various phases of a CBRN event to limit negative psychosocial impacts and promote resilience and adaptive responses is the essence of our psychosocial risk assessment and management (P-RAM) framework. This article presents the evidence base and conceptual underpinnings of the framework, the principles underlying its design, its key elements, and its use in the development of decision tools for responders, planners, decision makers, and the general public to better assess and manage psychosocial aspects of CBRN threats or attacks.

Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Julien; Fackler, Paul L.; Nichols, James D.; Lubow, Bruce C.; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Runge, Michael C.; Stith, Bradley M.; Langtimm, Catherine A.

2011-01-01

Sea level rise (SLR) projections along the coast of Florida present an enormous challenge for management and conservation over the long term. Decision makers need to recognize and adopt strategies to adapt to the potentially detrimental effects of SLR. Structured decision making (SDM) provides a rigorous framework for the management of natural resources. The aim of SDM is to identify decisions that are optimal with respect to management objectives and knowledge of the system. Most applications of SDM have assumed that the managed systems are governed by stationary processes. However, in the context of SLR it may be necessary to acknowledge that the processes underlying managed systems may be non-stationary, such that systems will be continuously changing. Therefore, SLR brings some unique considerations to the application of decision theory for natural resource management. In particular, SLR is expected to affect each of the components of SDM. For instance, management objectives may have to be reconsidered more frequently than under more stable conditions. The set of potential actions may also have to be adapted over time as conditions change. Models have to account for the non-stationarity of the modeled system processes. Each of the important sources of uncertainty in decision processes is expected to be exacerbated by SLR. We illustrate our ideas about adaptation of natural resource management to SLR by modeling a non-stationary system using a numerical example. We provide additional examples of an SDM approach for managing species that may be affected by SLR, with a focus on the endangered Florida manatee.

A methodological survey identified eight proposed frameworks for the adaptation of health related guidelines.

PubMed

Darzi, Andrea; Abou-Jaoude, Elias A; Agarwal, Arnav; Lakis, Chantal; Wiercioch, Wojtek; Santesso, Nancy; Brax, Hneine; El-Jardali, Fadi; Schünemann, Holger J; Akl, Elie A

2017-06-01

Our objective was to identify and describe published frameworks for adaptation of clinical, public health, and health services guidelines. We included reports describing methods of adaptation of guidelines in sufficient detail to allow its reproducibility. We searched Medline and EMBASE databases. We also searched personal files, as well manuals and handbooks of organizations and professional societies that proposed methods of adaptation and adoption of guidelines. We followed standard systematic review methodology. Our search captured 12,021 citations, out of which we identified eight proposed methods of guidelines adaptation: ADAPTE, Adapted ADAPTE, Alberta Ambassador Program adaptation phase, GRADE-ADOLOPMENT, MAGIC, RAPADAPTE, Royal College of Nursing (RCN), and Systematic Guideline Review (SGR). The ADAPTE framework consists of a 24-step process to adapt guidelines to a local context taking into consideration the needs, priorities, legislation, policies, and resources. The Alexandria Center for Evidence-Based Clinical Practice Guidelines updated one of ADAPTE's tools, modified three tools, and added three new ones. In addition, they proposed optionally using three other tools. The Alberta Ambassador Program adaptation phase consists of 11 steps and focused on adapting good-quality guidelines for nonspecific low back pain into local context. GRADE-ADOLOPMENT is an eight-step process based on the GRADE Working Group's Evidence to Decision frameworks and applied in 22 guidelines in the context of national guideline development program. The MAGIC research program developed a five-step adaptation process, informed by ADAPTE and the GRADE approach in the context of adapting thrombosis guidelines. The RAPADAPTE framework consists of 12 steps based on ADAPTE and using synthesized evidence databases, retrospectively derived from the experience of producing a high-quality guideline for the treatment of breast cancer with limited resources in Costa Rica. The RCN outlines five key steps strategy for adaptation of guidelines to the local context. The SGR method consists of nine steps and takes into consideration both methodological gaps and context-specific normative issues in source guidelines. We identified through searching personal files two abandoned methods. We identified and described eight proposed frameworks for the adaptation of health-related guidelines. There is a need to evaluate these different frameworks to assess rigor, efficiency, and transparency of their proposed processes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

AMModels: An R package for storing models, data, and metadata to facilitate adaptive management

PubMed Central

Katz, Jonathan E.

2018-01-01

Agencies are increasingly called upon to implement their natural resource management programs within an adaptive management (AM) framework. This article provides the background and motivation for the R package, AMModels. AMModels was developed under R version 3.2.2. The overall goal of AMModels is simple: To codify knowledge in the form of models and to store it, along with models generated from numerous analyses and datasets that may come our way, so that it can be used or recalled in the future. AMModels facilitates this process by storing all models and datasets in a single object that can be saved to an .RData file and routinely augmented to track changes in knowledge through time. Through this process, AMModels allows the capture, development, sharing, and use of knowledge that may help organizations achieve their mission. While AMModels was designed to facilitate adaptive management, its utility is far more general. Many R packages exist for creating and summarizing models, but to our knowledge, AMModels is the only package dedicated not to the mechanics of analysis but to organizing analysis inputs, analysis outputs, and preserving descriptive metadata. We anticipate that this package will assist users hoping to preserve the key elements of an analysis so they may be more confidently revisited at a later date. PMID:29489825

AMModels: An R package for storing models, data, and metadata to facilitate adaptive management.

PubMed

Donovan, Therese M; Katz, Jonathan E

2018-01-01

Agencies are increasingly called upon to implement their natural resource management programs within an adaptive management (AM) framework. This article provides the background and motivation for the R package, AMModels. AMModels was developed under R version 3.2.2. The overall goal of AMModels is simple: To codify knowledge in the form of models and to store it, along with models generated from numerous analyses and datasets that may come our way, so that it can be used or recalled in the future. AMModels facilitates this process by storing all models and datasets in a single object that can be saved to an .RData file and routinely augmented to track changes in knowledge through time. Through this process, AMModels allows the capture, development, sharing, and use of knowledge that may help organizations achieve their mission. While AMModels was designed to facilitate adaptive management, its utility is far more general. Many R packages exist for creating and summarizing models, but to our knowledge, AMModels is the only package dedicated not to the mechanics of analysis but to organizing analysis inputs, analysis outputs, and preserving descriptive metadata. We anticipate that this package will assist users hoping to preserve the key elements of an analysis so they may be more confidently revisited at a later date.

Understanding barriers to implementation of an adaptive land management program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, S.K.; Morris, J.K.; Sanders, J.S.; Wiley, E.N.; Brooks, M.; Bennetts, R.E.; Percival, H.F.; Marynowski, S.

2006-01-01

The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission manages over 650,000 ha, including 26 wildlife management and environmental areas. To improve management, they developed an objective-based vegetation management (OBVM) process that focuses on desired conditions of plant communities through an adaptive management framework. Our goals were to understand potential barriers to implementing OBVM and to recommend strategies to overcome barriers. A literature review identified 47 potential barriers in six categories to implementation of adaptive and ecosystem management: logistical, communication, attitudinal, institutional, conceptual, and educational. We explored these barriers through a bureau-wide survey of 90 staff involved in OBVM and personal interviews with area managers, scientists, and administrators. The survey incorporated an organizational culture assessment instrument to gauge how institutional factors might influence OBVM implementation. The survey response rate was 69%. Logistics and communications were the greatest barriers to implementing OBVM. Respondents perceived that the agency had inadequate resources for implementing OBVM and provided inadequate information. About one-third of the respondents believed OBVM would decrease their job flexibility and perceived greater institutional barriers to the approach. The 43% of respondents who believed they would have more responsibility under OBVM also had greater attitudinal barriers. A similar percentage of respondents reported OBVM would not give enough priority to wildlife. Staff believed that current agency culture was hierarchical but preferred a culture that would provide more flexibility for adaptive management and would foster learning from land management activities. In light of the barriers to OBVM, we recommend the following: (1) mitigation of logistical barriers by addressing real and perceived constraints of staff, funds, and other resources in a participatory manner; (2) mitigation of communication barriers through interpersonal and electronic communication channels; (3) development of an OBVM external advisory committee; and (4) adoption of characteristics of an organizational culture that promotes flexibility and learning. ??2006 Society for Conservation Biology.

Understanding barriers to implementation of an adaptive land management program.

PubMed

Jacobson, Susan K; Morris, Julie K; Sanders, J Scott; Wiley, Eugene N; Brooks, Michael; Bennetts, Robert E; Percival, H Franklin; Marynowski, Susan

2006-10-01

The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission manages over 650,000 ha, including 26 wildlife management and environmental areas. To improve management, they developed an objective-based vegetation management (OBVM) process that focuses on desired conditions of plant communities through an adaptive management framework. Our goals were to understand potential barriers to implementing OBVM and to recommend strategies to overcome barriers. A literature review identified 47 potential barriers in six categories to implementation of adaptive and ecosystem management: logistical, communication, attitudinal, institutional, conceptual, and educational. We explored these barriers through a bureau-wide survey of 90 staff involved in OBVM and personal interviews with area managers, scientists, and administrators. The survey incorporated an organizational culture assessment instrument to gauge how institutional factors might influence OBVM implementation. The survey response rate was 69%. Logistics and communications were the greatest barriers to implementing OBVM. Respondents perceived that the agency had inadequate resources for implementing OBVM and provided inadequate information. About one-third of the respondents believed OBVM would decrease their job flexibility and perceived greater institutional barriers to the approach. The 43% of respondents who believed they would have more responsibility under OBVM also had greater attitudinal barriers. A similar percentage of respondents reported OBVM would not give enough priority to wildlife. Staff believed that current agency culture was hierarchical but preferred a culture that would provide more flexibility for adaptive management and would foster learning from land management activities. In light of the barriers to OBVM, we recommend the following: (1) mitigation of logistical barriers by addressing real and perceived constraints of staff, funds, and other resources in a participatory manner; (2) mitigation of communication barriers through interpersonal and electronic communication channels; (3) development of an OBVM external advisory committee; and (4) adoption of characteristics of an organizational culture that promotes flexibility and learning.

Probabilistic economic frameworks for disaster risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dulac, Guillaume; Forni, Marc

2013-04-01

Starting from the general concept of risk, we set up an economic analysis framework for Disaster Risk Management (DRM) investment. It builds on uncertainty management techniques - notably Monte Carlo simulations - and includes both a risk and performance metrics adapted to recurring issues in disaster risk management as entertained by governments and international organisations. This type of framework proves to be enlightening in several regards, and is thought to ease the promotion of DRM projects as "investments" rather than "costs to be born" and allow for meaningful comparison between DRM and other sectors. We then look at the specificities of disaster risk investments of medium to large scales through this framework, where some "invariants" can be identified, notably: (i) it makes more sense to perform analysis over long-term horizons -space and time scales are somewhat linked; (ii) profiling of the fluctuations of the gains and losses of DRM investments over long periods requires the ability to handle possibly highly volatile variables; (iii) complexity increases with the scale which results in a higher sensitivity of the analytic framework on the results; (iv) as the perimeter of analysis (time, theme and space-wise) is widened, intrinsic parameters of the project tend to weight lighter. This puts DRM in a very different perspective from traditional modelling, which usually builds on more intrinsic features of the disaster as it relates to the scientific knowledge about hazard(s). As models hardly accommodate for such complexity or "data entropy" (they require highly structured inputs), there is a need for a complementary approach to understand risk at global scale. The proposed framework suggests opting for flexible ad hoc modelling of specific issues consistent with one's objective, risk and performance metrics. Such tailored solutions are strongly context-dependant (time and budget, sensitivity of the studied variable in the economic framework) and can range from simple elicitation of data from a subject matter expert to calibrate a probability distribution to more advanced stochastic modelling. This approach can be referred to more as a proficiency in the language of uncertainty rather than modelling per se in the sense that it allows for greater flexibility to adapt a given context. In a real decision making context, one seldom has neither time nor budget resources to investigate all of these variables thoroughly, hence the importance of being able to prioritize the level of effort among them. Under the proposed framework, this can be done in an optimised fashion. The point here consists in applying probabilistic sensitivity analysis together with the fundamentals of the economic value of information; the framework as built is well suited to such considerations, and variables can be ranked according to their contribution to risk understanding. Efforts to deal with second order uncertainties on variables prove to be valuable when dealing with the economic value of sample information.

Development of a preliminary relative risk model for evaluating regional ecological conditions in the Delaware River Estuary, USA.

PubMed

Iannuzzi, Timothy J; Durda, Judi L; Preziosi, Damian V; Ludwig, David F; Stahl, Ralph G; DeSantis, Amanda A; Hoke, Robert A

2010-01-01

Effective environmental management and restoration of urbanized systems such as the Delaware River Estuary requires a holistic understanding of the relative importance of various stressor-related impacts throughout the watershed, both historical and ongoing. To that end, it is important to involve as many stakeholders as possible in the management process and to develop a system for sharing of scientific data and information, as well as effective technical tools for evaluating and disseminating the data needed to make management decisions. In this study, we describe a preliminary assessment that was undertaken to evaluate the relative risks for the variety of stressors currently operating within the Delaware Estuary using a relative risk model (RRM) framework. This model was constructed using existing data and information on the ecological conditions and stressors in the main-stem Delaware River below the head of tide at Trenton, New Jersey, USA. A large database was developed with pertinent data from a variety of library, scientific, and regulatory sources. Data were compiled, reviewed, and characterized before development of the Estuary-specific RRM. Our primary goals and objectives in developing this preliminary RRM for the Estuary were to 1) determine if the RRM framework can be adapted to a large complex estuarine system such as the Delaware River, 2) identify the issues associated with adapting the model framework to the various management issues and regional areas/habitats of the River, 3) help identify data needs and potential refinements that might be needed to more specifically quantify relative stressor risks in various areas and habitats of the Estuary to better inform future management goals/actions by Stakeholders. The key conclusions of our preliminary assessment are 1) a diverse suite of stressors is likely affecting the ecological conditions of the Delaware Estuary, 2) chemical (toxicants/contaminants) and physical (sedimentation, habitat loss) stressors were found to be on par with regards to their ranking, and 3) the RRM, in its current form, made it difficult to effectively balance the inequality in the sizes of the study subareas considered in the assessment. Management objectives and related research activities should focus on collecting the necessary data and information to further refine the RRM and assess the relative impacts of these stressors at various scales in the Estuary. By having such a framework and tool available, we believe that stakeholders within the Delaware River watershed will be able to make more informed and risk-based management decisions regarding restoration options for the Estuary.

Carpet: Adaptive Mesh Refinement for the Cactus Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnetter, Erik; Hawley, Scott; Hawke, Ian

2016-11-01

Carpet is an adaptive mesh refinement and multi-patch driver for the Cactus Framework (ascl:1102.013). Cactus is a software framework for solving time-dependent partial differential equations on block-structured grids, and Carpet acts as driver layer providing adaptive mesh refinement, multi-patch capability, as well as parallelization and efficient I/O.

Creating a process for incorporating epidemiological modelling into outbreak management decisions.

PubMed

Akselrod, Hana; Mercon, Monica; Kirkeby Risoe, Petter; Schlegelmilch, Jeffrey; McGovern, Joanne; Bogucki, Sandy

2012-01-01

Modern computational models of infectious diseases greatly enhance our ability to understand new infectious threats and assess the effects of different interventions. The recently-released CDC Framework for Preventing Infectious Diseases calls for increased use of predictive modelling of epidemic emergence for public health preparedness. Currently, the utility of these technologies in preparedness and response to outbreaks is limited by gaps between modelling output and information requirements for incident management. The authors propose an operational structure that will facilitate integration of modelling capabilities into action planning for outbreak management, using the Incident Command System (ICS) and Synchronization Matrix framework. It is designed to be adaptable and scalable for use by state and local planners under the National Response Framework (NRF) and Emergency Support Function #8 (ESF-8). Specific epidemiological modelling requirements are described, and integrated with the core processes for public health emergency decision support. These methods can be used in checklist format to align prospective or real-time modelling output with anticipated decision points, and guide strategic situational assessments at the community level. It is anticipated that formalising these processes will facilitate translation of the CDC's policy guidance from theory to practice during public health emergencies involving infectious outbreaks.

Valuing Groundwater Resources in Arid Watersheds under Climate Change: A Framework and Estimates for the Upper Rio Grande

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurd, B. H.; Coonrod, J.

2008-12-01

Climate change is expected to alter surface hydrology throughout the arid Western United States, in most cases compressing the period of peak snowmelt and runoff, and in some cases, for example, the Rio Grande, limiting total runoff. As such, climate change is widely expected to further stress arid watersheds, particularly in regions where trends in population growth, economic development and environmental regulation are current challenges. Strategies to adapt to such changes are evolving at various institutional levels including conjunctive management of surface and ground waters. Groundwater resources remain one of the key components of water management strategies aimed at accommodating continued population growth and mitigating the potential for water supply disruptions under climate change. By developing a framework for valuing these resources and for value improvements in the information pertaining to their characteristics, this research can assist in prioritizing infrastructure and investment to change and enhance water resource management. The key objective of this paper is to 1) develop a framework for estimating the value of groundwater resources and improved information, and 2) provide some preliminary estimates of this value and how it responds to plausible scenarios of climate change.

Using engineering control principles to inform the design of adaptive interventions: a conceptual introduction.

PubMed

Rivera, Daniel E; Pew, Michael D; Collins, Linda M

2007-05-01

The goal of this paper is to describe the role that control engineering principles can play in developing and improving the efficacy of adaptive, time-varying interventions. It is demonstrated that adaptive interventions constitute a form of feedback control system in the context of behavioral health. Consequently, drawing from ideas in control engineering has the potential to significantly inform the analysis, design, and implementation of adaptive interventions, leading to improved adherence, better management of limited resources, a reduction of negative effects, and overall more effective interventions. This article illustrates how to express an adaptive intervention in control engineering terms, and how to use this framework in a computer simulation to investigate the anticipated impact of intervention design choices on efficacy. The potential benefits of operationalizing decision rules based on control engineering principles are particularly significant for adaptive interventions that involve multiple components or address co-morbidities, situations that pose significant challenges to conventional clinical practice.

Using Engineering Control Principles to Inform the Design of Adaptive Interventions: A Conceptual Introduction

PubMed Central

Rivera, Daniel E.; Pew, Michael D.; Collins, Linda M.

2007-01-01

The goal of this paper is to describe the role that control engineering principles can play in developing and improving the efficacy of adaptive, time-varying interventions. It is demonstrated that adaptive interventions constitute a form of feedback control system in the context of behavioral health. Consequently, drawing from ideas in control engineering has the potential to significantly inform the analysis, design, and implementation of adaptive interventions, leading to improved adherence, better management of limited resources, a reduction of negative effects, and overall more effective interventions. This article illustrates how to express an adaptive intervention in control engineering terms, and how to use this framework in a computer simulation to investigate the anticipated impact of intervention design choices on efficacy. The potential benefits of operationalizing decision rules based on control engineering principles are particularly significant for adaptive interventions that involve multiple components or address co-morbidities, situations that pose significant challenges to conventional clinical practice. PMID:17169503

Bridging the gap between climate change and maritime security: Towards a comprehensive framework for planning.

PubMed

Mazaris, Antonios D; Germond, Basil

2018-09-01

For the past two decades, the need to shield strategic maritime interests, to tackle criminality and terrorism at or from the sea and to conserve valuable marine resources has been recognized at the highest political level. Acknowledging and accounting for the interplay between climate change, the vulnerability of coastal populations and the occurrence of maritime criminality should be part of any ocean governance process. Still, given the complex interactions between climate change and socio-economic components of the marine realm, it has become urgent to establish a solid methodological framework, which could lead to sound and effective decisions. We propose that any such framework should not be built from scratch. The adaptation of well tested, existing uncertainty-management tools, such as Cumulative Effect Assessments, could serve as a solid basis to account for the magnitude and directionality of the dependencies between the impacts of climate change and the occurrence of maritime criminality, offering spatial explicit risk evaluations. Multi-Criteria Decision Making could then be employed to better and faster inform decision-makers. These mechanisms could provide a framework for comparison of alternative mitigation and adaptation actions and are essential in assessing responses to tackle maritime crime in the context of climate change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Framework and tools for agricultural landscape assessment relating to water quality protection.

PubMed

Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Massa, Florence; Durand, Patrick; Merot, Philippe; Troccaz, Olivier; Baudry, Jacques; Thenail, Claudine

2009-05-01

While many scientific studies show the influence of agricultural landscape patterns on water cycle and water quality, only a few of these have proposed scientifically based and operational methods to improve water management. Territ'eau is a framework developed to adapt agricultural landscapes to water quality protection, using components such as farmers' fields, seminatural areas, and human infrastructures, which can act as sources, sinks, or buffers on water quality. This framework allows us to delimit active areas contributing to water quality, defined by the following three characteristics: (i) the dominant hydrological processes and their flow pathways, (ii) the characteristics of each considered pollutant, and (iii) the main landscape features. These areas are delineated by analyzing the flow connectivity from the stream to the croplands, by assessing the buffer functions of seminatural areas according to their flow pathways. Hence, this framework allows us to identify functional seminatural areas in terms of water quality and assess their limits and functions; it helps in proposing different approaches for changing agricultural landscape, acting on agricultural practices or systems, and/or conserving or rebuilding seminatural areas in controversial landscapes. Finally, it allows us to objectivize the functions of the landscape components, for adapting these components to new environmental constraints.

An adaptive framework for selecting environmental monitoring protocols to support ocean renewable energy development.

PubMed

Shumchenia, Emily J; Smith, Sarah L; McCann, Jennifer; Carnevale, Michelle; Fugate, Grover; Kenney, Robert D; King, John W; Paton, Peter; Schwartz, Malia; Spaulding, Malcolm; Winiarski, Kristopher J

2012-01-01

Offshore renewable energy developments (OREDs) are projected to become common in the United States over the next two decades. There are both a need and an opportunity to guide efforts to identify and track impacts to the marine ecosystem resulting from these installations. A monitoring framework and standardized protocols that can be applied to multiple types of ORED would streamline scientific study, management, and permitting at these sites. We propose an adaptive and reactive framework based on indicators of the likely changes to the marine ecosystem due to ORED. We developed decision trees to identify suites of impacts at two scales (demonstration and commercial) depending on energy (wind, tidal, and wave), structure (e.g., turbine), and foundation type (e.g., monopile). Impacts were categorized by ecosystem component (benthic habitat and resources, fish and fisheries, avian species, marine mammals, and sea turtles) and monitoring objectives were developed for each. We present a case study at a commercial-scale wind farm and develop a monitoring plan for this development that addresses both local and national environmental concerns. In addition, framework has provided a starting point for identifying global research needs and objectives for understanding of the potential effects of ORED on the marine environment.

An Adaptive Framework for Selecting Environmental Monitoring Protocols to Support Ocean Renewable Energy Development

PubMed Central

Shumchenia, Emily J.; Smith, Sarah L.; McCann, Jennifer; Carnevale, Michelle; Fugate, Grover; Kenney, Robert D.; King, John W.; Paton, Peter; Schwartz, Malia; Spaulding, Malcolm; Winiarski, Kristopher J.

2012-01-01

Offshore renewable energy developments (OREDs) are projected to become common in the United States over the next two decades. There are both a need and an opportunity to guide efforts to identify and track impacts to the marine ecosystem resulting from these installations. A monitoring framework and standardized protocols that can be applied to multiple types of ORED would streamline scientific study, management, and permitting at these sites. We propose an adaptive and reactive framework based on indicators of the likely changes to the marine ecosystem due to ORED. We developed decision trees to identify suites of impacts at two scales (demonstration and commercial) depending on energy (wind, tidal, and wave), structure (e.g., turbine), and foundation type (e.g., monopile). Impacts were categorized by ecosystem component (benthic habitat and resources, fish and fisheries, avian species, marine mammals, and sea turtles) and monitoring objectives were developed for each. We present a case study at a commercial-scale wind farm and develop a monitoring plan for this development that addresses both local and national environmental concerns. In addition, framework has provided a starting point for identifying global research needs and objectives for understanding of the potential effects of ORED on the marine environment. PMID:23319884

Facilitating climate-change-induced range shifts across continental land-use barriers.

PubMed

Robillard, Cassandra M; Coristine, Laura E; Soares, Rosana N; Kerr, Jeremy T

2015-12-01

Climate changes impose requirements for many species to shift their ranges to remain within environmentally tolerable areas, but near-continuous regions of intense human land use stretching across continental extents diminish dispersal prospects for many species. We reviewed the impact of habitat loss and fragmentation on species' abilities to track changing climates and existing plans to facilitate species dispersal in response to climate change through regions of intensive land uses, drawing on examples from North America and elsewhere. We identified an emerging analytical framework that accounts for variation in species' dispersal capacities relative to both the pace of climate change and habitat availability. Habitat loss and fragmentation hinder climate change tracking, particularly for specialists, by impeding both propagule dispersal and population growth. This framework can be used to identify prospective modern-era climatic refugia, where the pace of climate change has been slower than surrounding areas, that are defined relative to individual species' needs. The framework also underscores the importance of identifying and managing dispersal pathways or corridors through semi-continental land use barriers that can benefit many species simultaneously. These emerging strategies to facilitate range shifts must account for uncertainties around population adaptation to local environmental conditions. Accounting for uncertainties in climate change and dispersal capabilities among species and expanding biological monitoring programs within an adaptive management paradigm are vital strategies that will improve species' capacities to track rapidly shifting climatic conditions across landscapes dominated by intensive human land use. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Framework, Third Edition

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-11-01

The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Framework (the Framework), third edition, is a manual to help transportation agencies and their partners assess the vulnerability of transportation infrastructu...

[Assessing program sustainability in public health organizations: a tool-kit application in Haiti].

PubMed

Ridde, V; Pluye, P; Queuille, L

2006-10-01

Public health stakeholders are concerned about program sustainability. However, they usually conceive sustainability in accordance with financial criteria for at least one reason. No simple frameworks are operationally and theoretically sound enough to globally evaluate program sustainability. The present paper aims to describe an application of one framework assessment tool used to evaluate the sustainability level and process of a Nutritional Care Unit managed by a Swiss humanitarian agency to fight against severe child malnutrition in a Haitian area. The managing agency is committed to put this Unit back into the structure of a local public hospital. The evaluation was performed within the sustainability framework proposed in a former article. Data were collected with a combination of tools, semi-structured interviews (n=33, medical and support staff from the agency and the hospital), participatory observation and document review. Data concerned the four characteristics of organizational routines (memory, adaptation, values and rules) enabling assess to the level of sustainability. In addition, data were related to three types of events distinguishing routinization processes from implementation processes: specific events of routinization, routinization-implementation joint events, and specific events of implementation. Data analysis was thematic and results were validated by actors through a feed-back session and written comments. The current level of sustainability of the Nutritional Care Unit within the Hospital is weak: weak memory, high adaptation, weak sharing of values and rules. This may be explained by the sustainability process, and the absence of specific routinization events. The relevance of such processes is reasonable, while it has been strongly challenged in the troublesome Haitian context. Riots have been widespread over the last years, creating difficulties for the Hospital. This experience suggests the proposed framework and sustainability assessment tools are useful when the context permits scrutinization of program sustainability.

Economic Justification Of Robust Or Adaptive Planning And Design Of Resilient Water Resources Systems Under Deep Uncertainty: A Case Study In The Iolanda Water Treatment Plant Of Lusaka, Zambia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, G.; Tkach, M.; Kucharski, J.; Chaudhry, R.

2017-12-01

This discussion is focused around the application of a bottom-up vulnerability assessment procedure for planning of climate resilience to a water treament plant for teh city of Iolanda, Zambia. This project is a Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) innitiaive with technical support by the UNESCO category II, International Center for Integrated Water Resources Management (ICIWaRM) with secretariat at the US Army Corps of Engineers Institute for Water Resources. The MCC is an innovative and independent U.S. foreign aid agency that is helping lead the fight against global poverty. The bottom-up vulnerability assessmentt framework examines critical performance thresholds, examines the external drivers that would lead to failure, establishes plausibility and analytical uncertainty that would lead to failure, and provides the economic justification for robustness or adaptability. This presentation will showcase the experiences in the application of the bottom-up framework to a region that is very vulnerable to climate variability, has poor instituional capacities, and has very limited data. It will illustrate the technical analysis and a decision process that led to a non-obvious climate robust solution. Most importantly it will highlight the challenges of utilizing discounted cash flow analysis (DCFA), such as net present value, in justifying robust or adaptive solutions, i.e. comparing solution under different future risks. We highlight a solution to manage the potential biases these DCFA procedures can incur.

Assessing the benefits and risks of translocations in changing environments: a genetic perspective

PubMed Central

Weeks, Andrew R; Sgro, Carla M; Young, Andrew G; Frankham, Richard; Mitchell, Nicki J; Miller, Kim A; Byrne, Margaret; Coates, David J; Eldridge, Mark D B; Sunnucks, Paul; Breed, Martin F; James, Elizabeth A; Hoffmann, Ary A

2011-01-01

Translocations are being increasingly proposed as a way of conserving biodiversity, particularly in the management of threatened and keystone species, with the aims of maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem function under the combined pressures of habitat fragmentation and climate change. Evolutionary genetic considerations should be an important part of translocation strategies, but there is often confusion about concepts and goals. Here, we provide a classification of translocations based on specific genetic goals for both threatened species and ecological restoration, separating targets based on ‘genetic rescue’ of current population fitness from those focused on maintaining adaptive potential. We then provide a framework for assessing the genetic benefits and risks associated with translocations and provide guidelines for managers focused on conserving biodiversity and evolutionary processes. Case studies are developed to illustrate the framework. PMID:22287981

A Framework for Business Process Change Requirements Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grover, Varun; Otim, Samuel

The ability to quickly and continually adapt business processes to accommodate evolving requirements and opportunities is critical for success in competitive environments. Without appropriate linkage between redesign decisions and strategic inputs, identifying processes that need to be modified will be difficult. In this paper, we draw attention to the analysis of business process change requirements in support of process change initiatives. Business process redesign is a multifaceted phenomenon involving processes, organizational structure, management systems, human resource architecture, and many other aspects of organizational life. To be successful, the business process initiative should focus not only on identifying the processes to be redesigned, but also pay attention to various enablers of change. Above all, a framework is just a blueprint; management must lead change. We hope our modest contribution will draw attention to the broader framing of requirements for business process change.

Object-oriented philosophy in designing adaptive finite-element package for 3D elliptic deferential equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhengyong, R.; Jingtian, T.; Changsheng, L.; Xiao, X.

2007-12-01

Although adaptive finite-element (AFE) analysis is becoming more and more focused in scientific and engineering fields, its efficient implementations are remain to be a discussed problem as its more complex procedures. In this paper, we propose a clear C++ framework implementation to show the powerful properties of Object-oriented philosophy (OOP) in designing such complex adaptive procedure. In terms of the modal functions of OOP language, the whole adaptive system is divided into several separate parts such as the mesh generation or refinement, a-posterior error estimator, adaptive strategy and the final post processing. After proper designs are locally performed on these separate modals, a connected framework of adaptive procedure is formed finally. Based on the general elliptic deferential equation, little efforts should be added in the adaptive framework to do practical simulations. To show the preferable properties of OOP adaptive designing, two numerical examples are tested. The first one is the 3D direct current resistivity problem in which the powerful framework is efficiently shown as only little divisions are added. And then, in the second induced polarization£¨IP£©exploration case, new adaptive procedure is easily added which adequately shows the strong extendibility and re-usage of OOP language. Finally we believe based on the modal framework adaptive implementation by OOP methodology, more advanced adaptive analysis system will be available in future.

Adapting a Psychosocial Intervention for Smartphone Delivery to Middle-Aged and Older Adults with Serious Mental Illness.

PubMed

Whiteman, Karen L; Lohman, Matthew C; Gill, Lydia E; Bruce, Martha L; Bartels, Stephen J

2017-08-01

To describe the process of adapting an integrated medical and psychiatric self-management intervention to a smartphone application for middle-aged and older adults with serious mental illness using an adaptive systems engineering framework and user-centered design. First, we determined the technical abilities and needs of middle-aged and older adults with serious mental illnesses using smartphones. Then, we developed smartphone content through principles of user-centered design and modified an existing smartphone platform. Finally, we conducted a usability test using "think aloud" and verbal probing. We adapted a psychosocial self-management intervention to a smartphone application and tested its usability. Ten participants (mean age: 55.3 years, SD: 6.2 years) with serious mental illness and comorbid chronic health conditions reported a high level of usability and satisfaction with the smartphone application. Middle-aged and older adults with serious mental illness and limited technical abilities were able to participate in a process involving user-centered design and adaptation of a self-management intervention to be delivered by a smartphone. High usability ratings suggest that middle-aged and older adults with serious mental illness have the potential to use tailored smartphone interventions. Future research is indicated to establish effectiveness and to determine the type and intensity of clinical support needed to successfully implement smartphone applications as a component of community-based services for older adults with psychiatric and medical conditions. Copyright © 2017 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Designing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways using Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwakkel, Jan; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

2017-04-01

Dealing with climate risks in water management requires confronting a wide variety of deeply uncertain factors, while navigating a many dimensional space of trade-offs amongst objectives. There is an emerging body of literature on supporting this type of decision problem, under the label of decision making under deep uncertainty. Two approaches within this literature are Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. In recent work, these approaches have been compared. One of the main conclusions of this comparison was that they are highly complementary. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making is a model based decision support approach, while Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is primarily a conceptual framework for the design of flexible strategies that can be adapted over time in response to how the future is actually unfolding. In this research we explore this complementarity in more detail. Specifically, we demonstrate how Many-Objective Robust Decision Making can be used to design adaptation pathways. We demonstrate this combined approach using a water management problem, in the Netherlands. The water level of Lake IJselmeer, the main fresh water resource of the Netherlands, is currently managed through discharge by gravity. Due to climate change, this won't be possible in the future, unless water levels are changed. Changing the water level has undesirable flood risk and spatial planning consequences. The challenge is to find promising adaptation pathways that balance objectives related to fresh water supply, flood risk, and spatial issues, while accounting for uncertain climatic and land use change. We conclude that the combination of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is particularly suited for dealing with deeply uncertain climate risks.

"And DPSIR begat DAPSI(W)R(M)!" - A unifying framework for marine environmental management.

PubMed

Elliott, M; Burdon, D; Atkins, J P; Borja, A; Cormier, R; de Jonge, V N; Turner, R K

2017-05-15

The marine environment is a complex system formed by interactions between ecological structure and functioning, physico-chemical processes and socio-economic systems. An increase in competing marine uses and users requires a holistic approach to marine management which considers the environmental, economic and societal impacts of all activities. If managed sustainably, the marine environment will deliver a range of ecosystem services which lead to benefits for society. In order to understand the complexity of the system, the DPSIR (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) approach has long been a valuable problem-structuring framework used to assess the causes, consequences and responses to change in a holistic way. Despite DPSIR being used for a long time, there is still confusion over the definition of its terms and so to be appropriate for current marine management, we contend that this confusion needs to be addressed. Our viewpoint advocates that DPSIR should be extended to DAPSI(W)R(M) (pronounced dap-see-worm) in which Drivers of basic human needs require Activities which lead to Pressures. The Pressures are the mechanisms of State change on the natural system which then leads to Impacts (on human Welfare). Those then require Responses (as Measures). Furthermore, because of the complexity of any managed sea area in terms of multiple Activities, there is the need for a linked-DAPSI(W)R(M) framework, and then the connectivity between marine ecosystems and ecosystems in the catchment and further at sea, requires an interlinked, nested-DAPSI(W)R(M) framework to reflect the continuum between adjacent ecosystems. Finally, the unifying framework for integrated marine management is completed by encompassing ecosystem structure and functioning, ecosystem services and societal benefits. Hence, DAPSI(W)R(M) links the socio-ecological system of the effects of changes to the natural system on the human uses and benefits of the marine system. However, to deliver these sustainably in the light of human activities requires a Risk Assessment and Risk Management framework; the ISO-compliant Bow-Tie method is used here as an example. Finally, to secure ecosystem health and economic benefits such as Blue Growth, successful, adaptive and sustainable marine management Responses (as Measures) are delivered using the 10-tenets, a set of facets covering all management disciplines and approaches. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Avoiding re-inventing the wheel in a people-centered approach to REDD+.

PubMed

Holmes, Ignacia; Potvin, Catherine

2014-10-01

One important debate regarding Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) in developing countries concerns the manner in which its implementation might affect local and indigenous communities. New ways to implement this mechanism without harming the interests of local communities are emerging. To inform this debate, we conducted a qualitative research synthesis to identify best practices (BPs) from people-centered approaches to conservation and rural development, developed indicators of BPs, and invited development practitioners and researchers in the field to assess how the identified BPs are being adopted by community-level REDD+ projects in Latin America. BPs included: local participation in all phases of the project; project supported by a decentralized forest governance framework; project objectives matching community livelihood priorities; project addressing community development needs and expectations; project enhancing stakeholder collaboration and consensus building; project applying an adaptive management approach; and project developing national and local capacities. Most of the BPs were part of the evaluated projects. However, limitations of some of the projects related to decentralized forest governance, matching project objectives with community livelihood priorities, and addressing community development needs. Adaptive management and free and prior informed consent have been largely overlooked. These limitations could be addressed by integrating conservation outcomes and alternative livelihoods into longer-term community development goals, testing nested forest governance approaches in which national policies support local institutions for forest management, gaining a better understanding of the factors that will make REDD+ more acceptable to local communities, and applying an adaptive management approach that allows for social learning and capacity building of relevant stakeholders. Our study provides a framework of BPs and indicators that could be used by stakeholders to improve REDD+ project design, monitoring, and evaluation, which may help reconcile national initiatives and local interests without reinventing the wheel. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Untangling Risk in Water Supply Systems: What Factors Drive Long-term Adaptation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeff, H. B.; Lin, L.; Band, L. E.; Reed, P. M.; Characklis, G. W.

2016-12-01

Deeply uncertain factors like climate change, the hydrologic impacts of urbanization, forest evolution, and long-term demand forecasts make water supply planning a `wicked' problem. The traditional technique of assessing risk based on historical observations can be inadequate in the face of environmental non-stationarity. However, competing models and limited observational data make it difficult for decision makers and experts to agree on how much uncertainty should be built into analyses of risk, particularly at the timescales relevant to long-term investments in water infrastructure. Further, the physical connectivity of these deeply uncertain processes create inter-related systems, amplifying the challenges of a `worst case scenario'. The development of adaptive systems and planning processes provide solutions that have been shown to meet technical, environmental, and social objectives at lower costs. Instead of developing plans with fixed targets for the timing of actions, adaptive plans develop risk metrics and thresholds that are able to integrate new information to determine when conditions reach a `tipping point' which necessitates action. It is an open question as to how new information can be best integrated into the decision-making process (i.e. how much weight do we give new observations relative to the historical record), but a better understanding of the way the relevant systems are expected to evolve and change over time could inform these decisions. In this study, we use linked, dynamic models of temperature and precipitation changes, forest evolution, urbanization, hydrology, and water demand to develop scenarios for an adaptive water management framework that uses risk-based metrics to make short- and long-term decisions. The impact of individual environmental processes on the adaptive capability of this management framework is evaluated through problem formulations that successively increase the complexity of the uncertainty scenarios. Although this work is focused on a group of water utilities in the Research Triangle of North Carolina, results provide insights into the conditions under which environmental changes could outpace our adaptive skill. In turn, risk measures can be designed to identify these conditions and better inform adaptive planning methods.

E-Learning, Multiple Intelligences Theory (MI) and Learner-Centred Instruction: Adapting MI Learning Theoretical Principles to the Instruction of Health and Safety to Construction Managers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNamee, Paul; Madden, Dave; McNamee, Frank; Wall, John; Hurst, Alan; Vrasidas, Charalambos; Chanquoy, Lucile; Baccino, Thierry; Acar, Emrah; Onwy-Yazici, Ela; Jordan, Ann

2009-01-01

This paper describes an ongoing EU project concerned with developing an instructional design framework for virtual classes (VC) that is based on the theory of Multiple Intelligences (MI) (1983). The psychological theory of Multiple Intelligences (Gardner 1983) has received much credence within instructional design since its inception and has been…

Historical framework to explain long-term coupled human and natural system feedbacks: application to a multiple-ownership forest landscape in the northern Great Lakes region, USA

Treesearch

Michelle M. Steen-Adams; Nancy Langston; Mark D. O. Adams; David J. Mladenoff

2015-01-01

Current and future human and forest landscape conditions are influenced by the cumulative, unfolding history of socialecological interactions. Examining past system responses, especially unintended consequences, can reveal valuable insights that promote learning and adaptation in forest policy and management. Temporal couplings are complex, however; they can be...

Restoring oak ecosystems on national forest system lands in the eastern region: an adaptive management approach

Treesearch

Gregory Nowacki; Michael Ablutz; Dan Yaussy; Thomas Schuler; Dan Dey

2009-01-01

The U.S. Forest Service has recently completed an ecosystem restoration framework and enacted accompanying policy to help guide its nationwide efforts. The Eastern Region is in the midst of translating the general guidance set forth in these documents to actual on-the-ground restoration. We envision a set of coordinated field demonstrations that will initially focus on...

Farmers' Perception and Adaptation Behavior Concerning Land Degradation: A Theoretical Framework and a Case Study in Northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Deyi; Liu, Kai

2017-04-01

In an era of global environmental change, social actors from an individual level to a national level are increasingly seeking adaptation strategies to better manage risks from environmental hazards. Vulnerability arises where adaptation capacity is not sufficient in dealing with a changing environment. Adaptation on an individual level and community level is important because of the location specific nature of environmental change. Land degradation is drawing much attention from both governments and academics, because it tends to affect the most vulnerable human populations and ecological systems most significantly. Despite these efforts, there is limited scientific knowledge regarding how farmers at a local level perceive the risks associated with degraded land and how their background, attitude, and living situation may affect their adaptation behavior. This poses a challenge to policy makers who are tasked to enhance the resilience of the society in response to environmental changes. Degradation of land by pollutant chemicals is particularly serious in China due to aggressive urbanization and industrialization activities over the last four decades. A report by the Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) in 2014 suggested that 16.1 percent of the nation's soil is polluted. Other studies suggest that shallow groundwater contamination is even more wide spread, with 80 90 percent being polluted. The government has realized the seriousness of land contamination, and vowed to give high priority to land remediation. Millions of hectares of contaminated agricultural land are expected to be remediated over the next decade. However, farmer's perception and adaptation behavior under this social and environmental change remain unknown. In this presentation, we report a conceptual framework and research hypothesis based on theoretical methodologies found in existing literature. We applied this framework to a case study of degraded land in an arid region in Northwest of China, where land pollution has caused ecological deterioration and affected the livelihood of local farmers. The findings from this study will be reported in the presentation.

Optimal control of native predators

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Julien; O'Connell, Allan F.; Kendall, William L.; Runge, Michael C.; Simons, Theodore R.; Waldstein, Arielle H.; Schulte, Shiloh A.; Converse, Sarah J.; Smith, Graham W.; Pinion, Timothy; Rikard, Michael; Zipkin, Elise F.

2010-01-01

We apply decision theory in a structured decision-making framework to evaluate how control of raccoons (Procyon lotor), a native predator, can promote the conservation of a declining population of American Oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus) on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Our management objective was to maintain Oystercatcher productivity above a level deemed necessary for population recovery while minimizing raccoon removal. We evaluated several scenarios including no raccoon removal, and applied an adaptive optimization algorithm to account for parameter uncertainty. We show how adaptive optimization can be used to account for uncertainties about how raccoon control may affect Oystercatcher productivity. Adaptive management can reduce this type of uncertainty and is particularly well suited for addressing controversial management issues such as native predator control. The case study also offers several insights that may be relevant to the optimal control of other native predators. First, we found that stage-specific removal policies (e.g., yearling versus adult raccoon removals) were most efficient if the reproductive values among stage classes were very different. Second, we found that the optimal control of raccoons would result in higher Oystercatcher productivity than the minimum levels recommended for this species. Third, we found that removing more raccoons initially minimized the total number of removals necessary to meet long term management objectives. Finally, if for logistical reasons managers cannot sustain a removal program by removing a minimum number of raccoons annually, managers may run the risk of creating an ecological trap for Oystercatchers.

Adaptive Management of Return Flows: Lessons from a Case Study in Environmental Water Delivery to a Floodplain River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfenden, Benjamin J.; Wassens, Skye M.; Jenkins, Kim M.; Baldwin, Darren S.; Kobayashi, Tsuyoshi; Maguire, James

2018-03-01

For many floodplain rivers, reinstating wetland connectivity is necessary for ecosystems to recover from decades of regulation. Environmental return flows (the managed delivery of wetland water to an adjacent river) can be used strategically to facilitate natural ecosystem connectivity, enabling the transfer of nutrients, energy, and biota from wetland habitats to the river. Using an informal adaptive management framework, we delivered return flows from a forested wetland complex into a large lowland river in south-eastern Australia. We hypothesized that return flows would (a) increase river nutrient concentrations; (b) reduce wetland nutrient concentrations; (c) increase rates of ecosystem metabolism through the addition of potentially limiting nutrients, causing related increases in the concentration of water column chlorophyll-a; and (d) increase the density and species richness of microinvertebrates in riverine benthic habitats. Our monitoring results demonstrated a small increase in the concentrations of several key nutrients but no evidence for significant ecological responses was found. Although return flows can be delivered from forested floodplain areas without risking hypoxic blackwater events, returning nutrient and carbon-rich water to increase riverine productivity is limited by the achievable scale of return flows. Nevertheless, using return flows to flush carbon from floodplains may be a useful management tool to reduce carbon loads, preparing floodplains for subsequent releases (e.g., mitigating the risk of hypoxic blackwater events). In this example, adaptive management benefited from a semi-formal collaboration between science and management that allowed for prompt decision-making.

Incorporating genetic sampling in long-term monitoring and adaptive management in the San Diego County Management Strategic Plan Area, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vandergast, Amy G.

2017-06-02

Habitat and species conservation plans usually rely on monitoring to assess progress towards conservation goals. Southern California, USA, is a hotspot of biodiversity and home to many federally endangered and threatened species. Here, several regional multi-species conservation plans have been implemented to balance development and conservation goals, including in San Diego County. In the San Diego County Management Strategic Plan Area (MSPA), a monitoring framework for the preserve system has been developed with a focus on species monitoring, vegetation monitoring, threats monitoring and abiotic monitoring. Genetic sampling over time (genetic monitoring) has proven useful in gathering species presence and abundance data and detecting population trends, particularly related to species and threats monitoring objectives. This report reviews genetic concepts and techniques of genetics that relate to monitoring goals and outlines components of a genetic monitoring scheme that could be applied in San Diego or in other monitoring frameworks throughout the Nation.

Learning from conservation planning for the U.S. National Wildlife Refuges.

PubMed

Meretsky, Vicky J; Fischman, Robert L

2014-10-01

The U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System has nearly completed its first round of unit-level, comprehensive conservation plans (CCPs) and will soon begin required revisions. Laws and policies governing refuge planning emphasize ecological integrity, landscape-scale conservation, and adaptive management. We evaluated 185 CCPs completed during 2005-2011, which cover 324 of 555 national wildlife refuges. We reviewed CCP prescriptions addressing 5 common conservation issues (habitat and game, nongame, imperiled, and invasive species) and 3 specialized topics (landscape-scale conservation, climate change, and environmental quality). Common conservation issues received prescriptions in >90% of CCPs. Specialized topics received more variable treatment. Prescriptions for aquatic connectivity, water quantity, and climate-change impacts increased over the study period. Except for climate change, direct actions were the most common type of management prescription, followed by plans or studies. Most CCPs stated a commitment to adaptive management and prescribed monitoring for common conservation objectives; other aspects of planning for adaptive management were often lacking, despite strong support for adaptive management in the conservation planning literature. To better address refuge-specific threats, we recommend that revised plans explicitly match identified refuge issues with prescriptions, particularly for under-represented concerns such as novel pests and pathogens. We recommend incorporating triggers into monitoring frameworks and specifying actions that will occur when threshold values are reached to improve support for adaptive management. Revised CCPs should better reflect work that refuges already undertake to extend conservation objectives beyond their borders and better engage with regional conservation efforts to continue this work. More thorough landscape-scale threat assessments and explicit prioritization of planned actions would further improve conservation effectiveness. Excellent examples of all recommended practices exist within the CCPs we examined; sharing best planning practices would improve planning efficiency within the refuge system. © 2014 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.

Social impact assessments: Developing a consolidated conceptual framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arce-Gomez, Antonio, E-mail: aarcegomez@swin.edu.au; Donovan, Jerome D., E-mail: jdonovan@swin.edu.au; Bedggood, Rowan E., E-mail: rbedggood@swin.edu.au

Social Impact Assessments (SIAs) have played an increasingly important role in the conduct of planned interventions, providing proponents the capacity to assess and manage the social consequences of their activities. Whilst the SIA field has experienced significant conceptual and practical development over the last decade, efforts at consolidating this within one framework have been limited. In this paper, we incorporate this new knowledge by redeveloping and thus updating the SIA procedural framework developed by Interorganizational Committee on Guidelines and Principles for Social Impact Assessment. In doing so, this updated procedural framework has attempted to incorporate current ‘best practice’ that focusesmore » on participatory approaches to undertaking an SIA. This involved making adaptions to two steps, expansions to five steps, integration of a stronger participatory approach to six steps, and the development of a new step, Management and Evaluation reflecting moves towards ex-post use of SIA processes. It is hoped that this consolidation of the literature of a decade's worth of key findings in SIA research will lead to further efforts towards a meta-evaluation of SIA literature and a platform from which newer developments may be further investigated.« less

Towards adaptive and integrated management paradigms to meet the challenges of water governance.

PubMed

Halbe, J; Pahl-Wostl, C; Sendzimir, J; Adamowski, J

2013-01-01

Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) aims at finding practical and sustainable solutions to water resource issues. Research and practice have shown that innovative methods and tools are not sufficient to implement IWRM - the concept needs to also be integrated in prevailing management paradigms and institutions. Water governance science addresses this human dimension by focusing on the analysis of regulatory processes that influence the behavior of actors in water management systems. This paper proposes a new methodology for the integrated analysis of water resources management and governance systems in order to elicit and analyze case-specific management paradigms. It builds on the Management and Transition Framework (MTF) that allows for the examination of structures and processes underlying water management and governance. The new methodology presented in this paper combines participatory modeling and analysis of the governance system by using the MTF to investigate case-specific management paradigms. The linking of participatory modeling and research on complex management and governance systems allows for the transfer of knowledge between scientific, policy, engineering and local communities. In this way, the proposed methodology facilitates assessment and implementation of transformation processes towards IWRM that require also the adoption of adaptive management principles. A case study on flood management in the Tisza River Basin in Hungary is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology.

A Framework for Integration of IVHM Technologies for Intelligent Integration for Vehicle Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paris, Deidre E.; Trevino, Luis; Watson, Mike

2005-01-01

As a part of the overall goal of developing Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) systems for aerospace vehicles, the NASA Faculty Fellowship Program (NFFP) at Marshall Space Flight Center has performed a pilot study on IVHM principals which integrates researched IVHM technologies in support of Integrated Intelligent Vehicle Management (IIVM). IVHM is the process of assessing, preserving, and restoring system functionality across flight and ground systems (NASA NGLT 2004). The framework presented in this paper integrates advanced computational techniques with sensor and communication technologies for spacecraft that can generate responses through detection, diagnosis, reasoning, and adapt to system faults in support of IIVM. These real-time responses allow the IIVM to modify the effected vehicle subsystem(s) prior to a catastrophic event. Furthermore, the objective of this pilot program is to develop and integrate technologies which can provide a continuous, intelligent, and adaptive health state of a vehicle and use this information to improve safety and reduce costs of operations. Recent investments in avionics, health management, and controls have been directed towards IIVM. As this concept has matured, it has become clear the IIVM requires the same sensors and processing capabilities as the real-time avionics functions to support diagnosis of subsystem problems. New sensors have been proposed, in addition, to augment the avionics sensors to support better system monitoring and diagnostics. As the designs have been considered, a synergy has been realized where the real-time avionics can utilize sensors proposed for diagnostics and prognostics to make better real-time decisions in response to detected failures. IIVM provides for a single system allowing modularity of functions and hardware across the vehicle. The framework that supports IIVM consists of 11 major on-board functions necessary to fully manage a space vehicle maintaining crew safety and mission objectives: Guidance and Navigation; Communications and Tracking; Vehicle Monitoring; Information Transport and Integration; Vehicle Diagnostics; Vehicle Prognostics; Vehicle mission Planning; Automated Repair and Replacement; Vehicle Control; Human Computer Interface; and Onboard Verification and Validation. Furthermore, the presented framework provides complete vehicle management which not only allows for increased crew safety and mission success through new intelligence capabilities, but also yields a mechanism for more efficient vehicle operations. The representative IVHM technologies for IIVH includes: 1) robust controllers for use in re-usable launch vehicles, 2) scaleable/flexible computer platform using heterogeneous communication, 3) coupled electromagnetic oscillators for enhanced communications, 4) Linux-based real-time systems, 5) genetic algorithms, 6) Bayesian Networks, 7) evolutionary algorithms, 8) dynamic systems control modeling, and 9) advanced sensing capabilities. This paper presents IVHM technologies developed under NASA's NFFP pilot project. The integration of these IVHM technologies forms the framework for IIVM.

Predicting the resilience and recovery of aquatic systems: A framework for model evolution within environmental observatories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hipsey, Matthew R.; Hamilton, David P.; Hanson, Paul C.; Carey, Cayelan C.; Coletti, Janaine Z.; Read, Jordan S.; Ibelings, Bas W.; Valesini, Fiona J.; Brookes, Justin D.

2015-09-01

Maintaining the health of aquatic systems is an essential component of sustainable catchment management, however, degradation of water quality and aquatic habitat continues to challenge scientists and policy-makers. To support management and restoration efforts aquatic system models are required that are able to capture the often complex trajectories that these systems display in response to multiple stressors. This paper explores the abilities and limitations of current model approaches in meeting this challenge, and outlines a strategy based on integration of flexible model libraries and data from observation networks, within a learning framework, as a means to improve the accuracy and scope of model predictions. The framework is comprised of a data assimilation component that utilizes diverse data streams from sensor networks, and a second component whereby model structural evolution can occur once the model is assessed against theoretically relevant metrics of system function. Given the scale and transdisciplinary nature of the prediction challenge, network science initiatives are identified as a means to develop and integrate diverse model libraries and workflows, and to obtain consensus on diagnostic approaches to model assessment that can guide model adaptation. We outline how such a framework can help us explore the theory of how aquatic systems respond to change by bridging bottom-up and top-down lines of enquiry, and, in doing so, also advance the role of prediction in aquatic ecosystem management.

A framework for assessment and monitoring of small mammals in a lowland tropical forest.

PubMed

Solari, Sergio; Rodriguez, Juan José; Vivar, Elena; Velazco, Paul M

2002-05-01

Development projects in tropical forests can impact biodiversity. Assessment and monitoring programs based on the principles of adaptive management assist managers to identify and reduce such impacts. The small mammal community is one important component of a forest ecosystem that may be impacted by development projects. In 1996, a natural gas exploration project was initiated in a Peruvian rainforest. The Smithsonian Institution's Monitoring and Assessment of Biodiversity program cooperated with Shell Prospecting and Development Peru to establish an adaptive management program to protect the region's biodiversity. In this article, we discuss the role of assessing and monitoring small mammals in relation to the natural gas project. We outline the conceptual issues involved in establishing an assessment and monitoring program, including setting objectives, evaluating the results and making appropriate decisions. We also summarize the steps taken to implement the small mammal assessment, provide results from the assessment and discuss protocols to identify appropriate species for monitoring.

An Adaptive Sensor Mining Framework for Pervasive Computing Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rashidi, Parisa; Cook, Diane J.

Analyzing sensor data in pervasive computing applications brings unique challenges to the KDD community. The challenge is heightened when the underlying data source is dynamic and the patterns change. We introduce a new adaptive mining framework that detects patterns in sensor data, and more importantly, adapts to the changes in the underlying model. In our framework, the frequent and periodic patterns of data are first discovered by the Frequent and Periodic Pattern Miner (FPPM) algorithm; and then any changes in the discovered patterns over the lifetime of the system are discovered by the Pattern Adaptation Miner (PAM) algorithm, in order to adapt to the changing environment. This framework also captures vital context information present in pervasive computing applications, such as the startup triggers and temporal information. In this paper, we present a description of our mining framework and validate the approach using data collected in the CASAS smart home testbed.

General mental ability and two types of adaptation to unforeseen change: applying discontinuous growth models to the task-change paradigm.

PubMed

Lang, Jonas W B; Bliese, Paul D

2009-03-01

The present research provides new insights into the relationship between general mental ability (GMA) and adaptive performance by applying a discontinuous growth modeling framework to a study of unforeseen change on a complex decision-making task. The proposed framework provides a way to distinguish 2 types of adaptation (transition adaptation and reacquisition adaptation) from 2 common performance components (skill acquisition and basal task performance). Transition adaptation refers to an immediate loss of performance following a change, whereas reacquisition adaptation refers to the ability to relearn a changed task over time. Analyses revealed that GMA was negatively related to transition adaptation and found no evidence for a relationship between GMA and reacquisition adaptation. The results are integrated within the context of adaptability research, and implications of using the described discontinuous growth modeling framework to study adaptability are discussed. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Exposure Control Using Adaptive Multi-Stage Item Bundles.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luecht, Richard M.

This paper presents a multistage adaptive testing test development paradigm that promises to handle content balancing and other test development needs, psychometric reliability concerns, and item exposure. The bundled multistage adaptive testing (BMAT) framework is a modification of the computer-adaptive sequential testing framework introduced by…

Identifying legal, ecological and governance obstacles and opportunities for adapting to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cosens, Barbara; Gunderson, Lance; Allen, Craig R.; Benson, Melinda H.

2014-01-01

Current governance of regional scale water management systems in the United States has not placed them on a path toward sustainability, as conflict and gridlock characterize the social arena and ecosystem services continue to erode. Changing climate may continue this trajectory, but it also provides a catalyst for renewal of ecosystems and a window of opportunity for change in institutions. Resilience provides a bridging concept that predicts that change in ecological and social systems is often dramatic, abrupt, and surprising. Adapting to the uncertainty of climate driven change must be done in a manner perceived as legitimate by the participants in a democratic society. Adaptation must begin with the current hierarchical and fragmented social-ecological system as a baseline from which new approaches must be applied. Achieving a level of integration between ecological concepts and governance requires a dialogue across multiple disciplines, including ecologists with expertise in ecological resilience, hydrologists and climate experts, with social scientists and legal scholars. Criteria and models that link ecological dynamics with policies in complex, multi-jurisdictional water basins with adaptive management and governance frameworks may move these social-ecological systems toward greater sustainability.

Polish country study to address climate change: Strategies of the GHG`s emission reduction and adaptation of the Polish economy to the changed climate. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1996-01-01

The Polish Country Study Project was initiated in 1992 as a result of the US Country Study Initiative whose objective was to grant the countries -- signatories of the United Nations` Framework Convention on Climate Change -- assistance that will allow them to fulfill their obligations in terms of greenhouse gases (GHG`s) inventory, preparation of strategies for the reduction of their emission, and adapting their economies to the changed climatic conditions. In February 1993, in reply to the offer from the United States Government, the Polish Government expressed interest in participation in this program. The Study proposal, prepared by themore » Ministry of Environmental Protection, Natural Resources and Forestry was presented to the US partner. The program proposal assumed implementation of sixteen elements of the study, encompassing elaboration of scenarios for the strategy of mission reduction in energy sector, industry, municipal management, road transport, forestry, and agriculture, as well as adaptations to be introduced in agriculture, forestry, water management, and coastal management. The entire concept was incorporated in macroeconomic strategy scenarios. A complementary element was the elaboration of a proposal for economic and legal instruments to implement the proposed strategies. An additional element was proposed, namely the preparation of a scenario of adapting the society to the expected climate changes.« less

An Engineering Technology Skills Framework that Reflects Workforce Needs on Maui and the Big Island of Hawai'i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seagroves, S.; Hunter, L.

2010-12-01

The Akamai Workforce Initiative (AWI) is an interdisciplinary effort to improve science/engineering education in the state of Hawai'i, and to train a diverse population of local students in the skills needed for a high-tech economy. In 2009, the AWI undertook a survey of industry partners on Maui and the Big Island of Hawai'i to develop an engineering technology skills framework that will guide curriculum development at the U. of Hawai'i - Maui (formerly Maui Community College). This engineering skills framework builds directly on past engineering-education developments within the Center for Adaptive Optics Professional Development Program, and draws on curriculum development frameworks and engineering skills standards from the literature. Coupling that previous work with reviews of past Akamai Internship projects and information from previous conversations with the local high-tech community led to a structured-interview format where engineers and managers could contribute meaningful commentary to this framework. By incorporating these local high-tech companies' needs for entry-level engineers and technicians, a skills framework emerges that is unique and illuminating. Two surprising features arise in this framework: (1) "technician-like" skills of making existing technology work are on similar footing with "engineer-like" skills of creating new technology; in fact, both engineers and technicians at these workplaces use both sets of skills; and (2) project management skills are emphasized by employers even for entry-level positions.

An Experimental Framework for Executing Applications in Dynamic Grid Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huedo, Eduardo; Montero, Ruben S.; Llorente, Ignacio M.; Bushnell, Dennis M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Grid opens up opportunities for resource-starved scientists and engineers to harness highly distributed computing resources. A number of Grid middleware projects are currently available to support the simultaneous exploitation of heterogeneous resources distributed in different administrative domains. However, efficient job submission and management continue being far from accessible to ordinary scientists and engineers due to the dynamic and complex nature of the Grid. This report describes a new Globus framework that allows an easier and more efficient execution of jobs in a 'submit and forget' fashion. Adaptation to dynamic Grid conditions is achieved by supporting automatic application migration following performance degradation, 'better' resource discovery, requirement change, owner decision or remote resource failure. The report also includes experimental results of the behavior of our framework on the TRGP testbed.

Adaptive genetic potential of coniferous forest tree species under climate change: implications for sustainable forest management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mihai, Georgeta; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Teodosiu, Maria; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Daia, Mihai; Mirancea, Ionel; Ivanov, Paula; Alin, Alexandru

2017-04-01

Mountain ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to climate change. The real potential for adaptation depends upon the existence of a wide genetic diversity in trees populations, upon the adaptive genetic variation, respectively. Genetic diversity offers the guarantee that forest species can survive, adapt and evolve under the influence of changing environmental conditions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the genetic diversity and adaptive genetic potential of two local species - Norway spruce and European silver fir - in the context of regional climate change. Based on data from a long-term provenance experiments network and climate variables spanning over more than 50 years, we have investigated the impact of climatic factors on growth performance and adaptation of tree species. Our results indicate that climatic and geographic factors significantly affect forest site productivity. Mean annual temperature and annual precipitation amount were found to be statistically significant explanatory variables. Combining the additive genetic model with the analysis of nuclear markers we obtained different images of the genetic structure of tree populations. As genetic indicators we used: gene frequencies, genetic diversity, genetic differentiation, genetic variance, plasticity. Spatial genetic analyses have allowed identifying the genetic centers holding high genetic diversity which will be valuable sources of gene able to buffer the negative effects of future climate change. Correlations between the marginal populations and in the optimal vegetation, between the level of genetic diversity and ecosystem stability, will allow the assessment of future risks arising from current genetic structure. Therefore, the strategies for sustainable forest management have to rely on the adaptive genetic variation and local adaptation of the valuable genetic resources. This work was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM (Evaluating the adaptive potential of the main coniferous species for a sustainable forest management in the context of climate change), financed by the Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding, grant number PN-II-PC-PCCA-2013-4-0695.

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts and Adaptation Part I

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2007-12-01

The IPCC (as opposed to the UN Framework Convention) defines climate change as" any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity". The IPCC Working Group II (Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability) was charged with assessing the scientific, technical, environmental, economic, and social aspects of vulnerability to climate change, and, the negative and positive consequences for ecological systems, socio-economic sectors, and human health. The Working Group II report focused on the following issues for different sectors and regions (e.g. water, agriculture, biodiversity) and communities (coastal, island, etc.): · The role of adaptation in reducing vulnerability and impacts, · Assessment of adaptation capacity, options and constraints, and · Enhancing adaptation practice and operations. This presentation will address the following questions in the context of the results of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WG II: · What are the barriers, knowledge gaps, and opportunities for impacts assessments? · How are decisions about adaptation being made, and what types of adaptation strategies are being undertaken? · What are good adaptation practices and how are they learned over time? Examples will be drawn from the freshwater resources, small islands and adaptation chapters to which the presenter contributed. Many lessons have been identified but few have been implemented or evaluated over time. Adaptation occurs in the context of multiple stresses. Adaptation will be important in coping with early impacts in the near-term and continue to be important as our climate changes, regardless of how that change is derived. It is important to note that unmitigated climate change could, in the long term, exceed the capacity of different natural, managed and human systems to adapt. The assessment leads to the following conclusions: · Adaptation to climate change is already taking place, but on a limited basis · Adaptation measures are seldom undertaken in response to climate change alone · Many adaptations can be implemented at low cost, but comprehensive estimates of adaptation costs and benefits are currently lacking · Adaptive capacity is uneven across and within societies Adaptive capacity to manage as climate changes can be increased by introducing adaptation measures into development planning and operations (sometimes termed 'mainstreaming'). This can be achieved by including adaptation measures in land-use planning and infrastructure design, or by including measures to reduce vulnerability in existing disaster preparedness programs (such as introducing drought warning systems based on actual management needs). The major barriers to implementing adaptive management measures are that adaptation to climate change is not as yet a high priority, and the validity of local manifestations of global climate change remains in question. Coping with the uncertainties associated with estimates of future climate change and the impacts on economic and environmental resources means management measures must be robust enough to apply to a range of potential scenarios, some as yet undefined Greenhouse gas mitigation is not enough to reduce climatic risks, nor does identifying the need for adaptations translate into actions that reduce vulnerability. By implementing mainstreaming initiatives, adaptation to climate change will become part of, or will be consistent with, other well- established programs to increase societal resilience, particularly environmental impacts assessments, adaptive management

Intelligent Vehicle Health Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paris, Deidre E.; Trevino, Luis; Watson, Michael D.

2005-01-01

As a part of the overall goal of developing Integrated Vehicle Health Management systems for aerospace vehicles, the NASA Faculty Fellowship Program (NFFP) at Marshall Space Flight Center has performed a pilot study on IVHM principals which integrates researched IVHM technologies in support of Integrated Intelligent Vehicle Management (IIVM). IVHM is the process of assessing, preserving, and restoring system functionality across flight and ground systems (NASA NGLT 2004). The framework presented in this paper integrates advanced computational techniques with sensor and communication technologies for spacecraft that can generate responses through detection, diagnosis, reasoning, and adapt to system faults in support of INM. These real-time responses allow the IIVM to modify the affected vehicle subsystem(s) prior to a catastrophic event. Furthermore, the objective of this pilot program is to develop and integrate technologies which can provide a continuous, intelligent, and adaptive health state of a vehicle and use this information to improve safety and reduce costs of operations. Recent investments in avionics, health management, and controls have been directed towards IIVM. As this concept has matured, it has become clear the INM requires the same sensors and processing capabilities as the real-time avionics functions to support diagnosis of subsystem problems. New sensors have been proposed, in addition, to augment the avionics sensors to support better system monitoring and diagnostics. As the designs have been considered, a synergy has been realized where the real-time avionics can utilize sensors proposed for diagnostics and prognostics to make better real-time decisions in response to detected failures. IIVM provides for a single system allowing modularity of functions and hardware across the vehicle. The framework that supports IIVM consists of 11 major on-board functions necessary to fully manage a space vehicle maintaining crew safety and mission objectives: Guidance and Navigation; Communications and Tracking; Vehicle Monitoring; Information Transport and Integration; Vehicle Diagnostics; Vehicle Prognostics; Vehicle mission Planning; Automated Repair and Replacement; Vehicle Control; Human Computer Interface; and Onboard Verification and Validation. Furthermore, the presented framework provides complete vehicle management which not only allows for increased crew safety and mission success through new intelligence capabilities, but also yields a mechanism for more efficient vehicle operations. The representative IVHM technologies for computer platform using heterogeneous communication, 3) coupled electromagnetic oscillators for enhanced communications, 4) Linux-based real-time systems, 5) genetic algorithms, 6) Bayesian Networks, 7) evolutionary algorithms, 8) dynamic systems control modeling, and 9) advanced sensing capabilities. This paper presents IVHM technologies developed under NASA's NFFP pilot project and the integration of these technologies forms the framework for IIVM.

Towards a neuro-computational account of prism adaptation.

PubMed

Petitet, Pierre; O'Reilly, Jill X; O'Shea, Jacinta

2017-12-14

Prism adaptation has a long history as an experimental paradigm used to investigate the functional and neural processes that underlie sensorimotor control. In the neuropsychology literature, prism adaptation behaviour is typically explained by reference to a traditional cognitive psychology framework that distinguishes putative functions, such as 'strategic control' versus 'spatial realignment'. This theoretical framework lacks conceptual clarity, quantitative precision and explanatory power. Here, we advocate for an alternative computational framework that offers several advantages: 1) an algorithmic explanatory account of the computations and operations that drive behaviour; 2) expressed in quantitative mathematical terms; 3) embedded within a principled theoretical framework (Bayesian decision theory, state-space modelling); 4) that offers a means to generate and test quantitative behavioural predictions. This computational framework offers a route towards mechanistic neurocognitive explanations of prism adaptation behaviour. Thus it constitutes a conceptual advance compared to the traditional theoretical framework. In this paper, we illustrate how Bayesian decision theory and state-space models offer principled explanations for a range of behavioural phenomena in the field of prism adaptation (e.g. visual capture, magnitude of visual versus proprioceptive realignment, spontaneous recovery and dynamics of adaptation memory). We argue that this explanatory framework can advance understanding of the functional and neural mechanisms that implement prism adaptation behaviour, by enabling quantitative tests of hypotheses that go beyond merely descriptive mapping claims that 'brain area X is (somehow) involved in psychological process Y'. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Developing a general conceptual framework for avian conservation science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.

2003-01-01

Avian conservation science in North America has produced a variety of monitoring programs designed to provide information on population status of birds. Waterfowl surveys provide population estimates for breeding ducks over most of the continent, the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides indexes to population change for >400 breeding bird species, and many other surveys exist that index bird populations at a variety of scales and seasons. However, many fundamental questions about bird population change remain unanswered. I suggest that analyses of monitoring data provide limited understanding of causes of population change, and that the declining species paradigm (Caughley 1994) is sometimes an inefficient approach to increasing our understanding of causes of population change. In North America, the North American Bird Conservation Initiative (NABCI) provides an opportunity to implement alternative approaches that use management, modeling of population responses to management, and monitoring in combination to increase our understanding of bird populations. In adaptive resources management, modeling provides predictions about consequences of management, and monitoring data allow us to assess the population consequences of management. In this framework, alternative hypotheses about response of populations to management can be evaluated by formulating a series of models with differing structure, and management and monitoring provide information about which model best predicts population response.

America's Climate Choices: Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilbanks, T.; Yohe, G.; Mengelt, C.; Casola, J.

2010-12-01

At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies that the nation can take to respond to climate change. As part of this suite of activities, this study assessed, this study assessed how the nation can begin to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Much of the nation’s experience to date in managing and protecting its people, resources, and infrastructure is based on the historic record of climate variability during a period of relatively stable climate. Adaptation to climate change calls for a new paradigm - one that considers a range of possible future climate conditions and associated impacts. The Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change report calls for action at all levels of government, NGOs, and the private sector to assess vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change and identify options for adaptation. Current adaptation efforts are hampered by a lack of solid information about the benefits, costs, and effectiveness of various adaptation options, by uncertainty about future climate change impacts at a scale necessary for decision-making, and by a lack of coordination. The report outlines a risk management framework that can be applied to assess vulnerabilities, compare and evaluate potential adaptation options, recognizing that decision makers across the country are likely to pursue a diverse set of adaptation measures. A major research effort is needed to improve knowledge about current and future vulnerabilities, explore new adaptation options, and better inform adaptation decisions. Therefore, the report also emphasizes the need to continually re-assess adaptation decisions as the experience and knowledge regarding effective adaptation evolves. A national adaptation strategy is needed in which the federal government would support and enhance adaptation activities undertaken by state, local, tribal, and private entities; identify and modify policies that might provide incentives for maladaptive behavior; bolster scientific research regarding adaptation; and encourage adaptation on a global scale through national programs with international components.

Using Outreach and Engagement Efforts to Inform the Makah Tribe's Climate Adaptation Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, L. K.; Chang, M.; Howk, F.

2017-12-01

The Makah Tribe views climate change as one of the biggest challenges to their natural resource management, threatening their livelihoods, economy, and culture. As part of their work towards climate adaptation planning, the Makah Tribal Council and tribal natural resource managers prioritized early community outreach and engagement efforts in order to accomplish three goals: continually update and inform the tribal community about the Tribe's climate adaptation efforts; gather community input and priorities for the Makah Climate Adaptation Plan; and provide a series of targeted educational events to inform the tribal community about projected climate change impacts to our resources. Our first community climate event, the Makah Climate Change Awareness Dinner, was held on February 8, 2017. At this event, we provided an overview of the Makah Tribe's Climate Vulnerability Assessment and administered an initial climate survey that gathered information regarding community members' observed environmental changes, knowledge about climate change and impacts, and any concerns and priorities to include in the Tribe's adaptation plan. We developed a framework for incorporating community engagement into climate adaptation planning and used results of our community survey to ensure community concerns were being addressed in the plan in addition to risks identified in western science. We also used survey results to inform a series of educational events to address knowledge gaps in the community and requested topics. These are two of next steps that the Makah Tribe is pursuing towards climate adaptation planning.

Knowledge management performance methodology regarding manufacturing organizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Istrate, C.; Herghiligiu, I. V.

2016-08-01

The current business situation is extremely complicated. Business must adapt to the changes in order (a) to survive on the increasingly dynamic markets, (b) to meet customers’ new request for complex, customized and innovative products. In modern manufacturing organizations it can be seen a substantial improvement regarding the management of knowledge. This occurs due to the fact that organizations realized that knowledge and an efficient management of knowledge generates the highest value. Even it could be said that the manufacturing organizations were and are the biggest beneficiary of KM science. Knowledge management performance (KMP) evaluation in manufacturing organizations can be considered as extremely important because without measuring it, they are unable to properly assess (a) what goals, targets and activities must have continuity, (b) what must be improved and (c) what must be completed. Therefore a proper KM will generate multiple competitive advantages for organizations. This paper presents a developed methodological framework regarding the KMP importance regarding manufacturing organizations. This methodological framework was developed using as research methods: bibliographical research and a panel of specialists. The purpose of this paper is to improve the evaluation process of KMP and to provide a viable tool for manufacturing organizations managers.

Beyond Prediction: the Many Ways in which Climate Science can Inform Adaptation Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lempert, R. J.

2017-12-01

Climate science provides an increasingly rich understanding of current and future climate, but this understanding is often not fully incorporated into climate adaptation decisions. In particular, the provision of climate information is still trapped in a narrow prediction-based framework, which envisions a sequential process that begins with model-based forecasts of future climate and decision makers then acting on those forecasts. Among its challenges, this framework can discourage action when climate predictions are deemed too uncertain, encourage overconfidence when climate scientists and decision makers fail to focus on decision-relevant but poorly understood extreme events, and offers a too-narrow communication path among climate scientists and decision makers. This talk will describe how robust decision approaches, organized around the idea of stress testing proposed adaptation decisions over a wide range of futures, can enable a richer flow information among climate scientists and decision makers. The talk illustrates these themes with two examples: 1) conservation management that explores the tradeoffs among alternative climate information products with different combinations of ensemble size and spatial resolution and 2) water quality implementation planning that focuses on the handling of extremes.

Assessing urban strategies for reducing the impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure networks.

PubMed

Pregnolato, Maria; Ford, Alistair; Robson, Craig; Glenis, Vassilis; Barr, Stuart; Dawson, Richard

2016-05-01

Critical infrastructure networks, including transport, are crucial to the social and economic function of urban areas but are at increasing risk from natural hazards. Minimizing disruption to these networks should form part of a strategy to increase urban resilience. A framework for assessing the disruption from flood events to transport systems is presented that couples a high-resolution urban flood model with transport modelling and network analytics to assess the impacts of extreme rainfall events, and to quantify the resilience value of different adaptation options. A case study in Newcastle upon Tyne in the UK shows that both green roof infrastructure and traditional engineering interventions such as culverts or flood walls can reduce transport disruption from flooding. The magnitude of these benefits depends on the flood event and adaptation strategy, but for the scenarios considered here 3-22% improvements in city-wide travel times are achieved. The network metric of betweenness centrality, weighted by travel time, is shown to provide a rapid approach to identify and prioritize the most critical locations for flood risk management intervention. Protecting just the top ranked critical location from flooding provides an 11% reduction in person delays. A city-wide deployment of green roofs achieves a 26% reduction, and although key routes still flood, the benefits of this strategy are more evenly distributed across the transport network as flood depths are reduced across the model domain. Both options should form part of an urban flood risk management strategy, but this method can be used to optimize investment and target limited resources at critical locations, enabling green infrastructure strategies to be gradually implemented over the longer term to provide city-wide benefits. This framework provides a means of prioritizing limited financial resources to improve resilience. This is particularly important as flood management investments must typically exceed a far higher benefit-cost threshold than transport infrastructure investments. By capturing the value to the transport network from flood management interventions, it is possible to create new business models that provide benefits to, and enhance the resilience of, both transport and flood risk management infrastructures. Further work will develop the framework to consider other hazards and infrastructure networks.

Assessing urban strategies for reducing the impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure networks

PubMed Central

Pregnolato, Maria; Ford, Alistair; Robson, Craig; Glenis, Vassilis; Barr, Stuart; Dawson, Richard

2016-01-01

Critical infrastructure networks, including transport, are crucial to the social and economic function of urban areas but are at increasing risk from natural hazards. Minimizing disruption to these networks should form part of a strategy to increase urban resilience. A framework for assessing the disruption from flood events to transport systems is presented that couples a high-resolution urban flood model with transport modelling and network analytics to assess the impacts of extreme rainfall events, and to quantify the resilience value of different adaptation options. A case study in Newcastle upon Tyne in the UK shows that both green roof infrastructure and traditional engineering interventions such as culverts or flood walls can reduce transport disruption from flooding. The magnitude of these benefits depends on the flood event and adaptation strategy, but for the scenarios considered here 3–22% improvements in city-wide travel times are achieved. The network metric of betweenness centrality, weighted by travel time, is shown to provide a rapid approach to identify and prioritize the most critical locations for flood risk management intervention. Protecting just the top ranked critical location from flooding provides an 11% reduction in person delays. A city-wide deployment of green roofs achieves a 26% reduction, and although key routes still flood, the benefits of this strategy are more evenly distributed across the transport network as flood depths are reduced across the model domain. Both options should form part of an urban flood risk management strategy, but this method can be used to optimize investment and target limited resources at critical locations, enabling green infrastructure strategies to be gradually implemented over the longer term to provide city-wide benefits. This framework provides a means of prioritizing limited financial resources to improve resilience. This is particularly important as flood management investments must typically exceed a far higher benefit–cost threshold than transport infrastructure investments. By capturing the value to the transport network from flood management interventions, it is possible to create new business models that provide benefits to, and enhance the resilience of, both transport and flood risk management infrastructures. Further work will develop the framework to consider other hazards and infrastructure networks. PMID:27293781

Adaptive multimodal interaction in mobile augmented reality: A conceptual framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abidin, Rimaniza Zainal; Arshad, Haslina; Shukri, Saidatul A'isyah Ahmad

2017-10-01

Recently, Augmented Reality (AR) is an emerging technology in many mobile applications. Mobile AR was defined as a medium for displaying information merged with the real world environment mapped with augmented reality surrounding in a single view. There are four main types of mobile augmented reality interfaces and one of them are multimodal interfaces. Multimodal interface processes two or more combined user input modes (such as speech, pen, touch, manual gesture, gaze, and head and body movements) in a coordinated manner with multimedia system output. In multimodal interface, many frameworks have been proposed to guide the designer to develop a multimodal applications including in augmented reality environment but there has been little work reviewing the framework of adaptive multimodal interface in mobile augmented reality. The main goal of this study is to propose a conceptual framework to illustrate the adaptive multimodal interface in mobile augmented reality. We reviewed several frameworks that have been proposed in the field of multimodal interfaces, adaptive interface and augmented reality. We analyzed the components in the previous frameworks and measure which can be applied in mobile devices. Our framework can be used as a guide for designers and developer to develop a mobile AR application with an adaptive multimodal interfaces.

Climate change and nutrition: creating a climate for nutrition security.

PubMed

Tirado, M C; Crahay, P; Mahy, L; Zanev, C; Neira, M; Msangi, S; Brown, R; Scaramella, C; Costa Coitinho, D; Müller, A

2013-12-01

Climate change further exacerbates the enormous existing burden of undernutrition. It affects food and nutrition security and undermines current efforts to reduce hunger and promote nutrition. Undernutrition in turn undermines climate resilience and the coping strategies of vulnerable populations. The objectives of this paper are to identify and undertake a cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the existing mechanisms, strategies, and policies to address them. A cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the mechanisms and policies to address them was guided by an analytical framework focused on the three 'underlying causes' of undernutrition: 1) household food access, 2) maternal and child care and feeding practices, 3) environmental health and health access. The analytical framework includes the interactions of the three underlying causes of undernutrition with climate change,vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation. Within broad efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation and climate-resilient development, a combination of nutrition-sensitive adaptation and mitigation measures, climate-resilient and nutrition-sensitive agricultural development, social protection, improved maternal and child care and health, nutrition-sensitive risk reduction and management, community development measures, nutrition-smart investments, increased policy coherence, and institutional and cross-sectoral collaboration are proposed as a means to address the impacts of climate change to food and nutrition security. This paper proposes policy directions to address nutrition in the climate change agenda and recommendations for consideration by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Nutrition and health stakeholders need to be engaged in key climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, including science-based assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and policies and actions formulated by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Improved multi-sectoral coordination and political will is required to integrate nutrition-sensitive actions into climate-resilient sustainable development efforts in the UNFCCC work and in the post 2015 development agenda. Placing human rights at the center of strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change and international solidarity is essential to advance sustainable development and to create a climate for nutrition security.

A Conceptual Framework for Planning Systemic Human Adaptation to Global Warming.

PubMed

Tait, Peter W; Hanna, Elizabeth G

2015-08-31

Human activity is having multiple, inter-related effects on ecosystems. Greenhouse gas emissions persisting along current trajectories threaten to significantly alter human society. At 0.85 °C of anthropogenic warming, deleterious human impacts are acutely evident. Additional warming of 0.5 °C-1.0 °C from already emitted CO₂ will further intensify extreme heat and damaging storm events. Failing to sufficiently address this trend will have a heavy human toll directly and indirectly on health. Along with mitigation efforts, societal adaptation to a warmer world is imperative. Adaptation efforts need to be significantly upscaled to prepare society to lessen the public health effects of rising temperatures. Modifying societal behaviour is inherently complex and presents a major policy challenge. We propose a social systems framework for conceptualizing adaptation that maps out three domains within the adaptation policy landscape: acclimatisation, behavioural adaptation and technological adaptation, which operate at societal and personal levels. We propose that overlaying this framework on a systems approach to societal change planning methods will enhance governments' capacity and efficacy in strategic planning for adaptation. This conceptual framework provides a policy oriented planning assessment tool that will help planners match interventions to the behaviours being targeted for change. We provide illustrative examples to demonstrate the framework's application as a planning tool.

Beyond Adapting to Climate Change: Embedding Adaptation in Responses to Multiple Threats and Stresses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilbanks, Thomas J; Kates, Dr. Robert W.

2010-01-01

Climate change impacts are already being experienced in every region of the United States and every part of the world most severely in Arctic regions and adaptation is needed now. Although climate change adaptation research is still in its infancy, significant adaptation planning in the United States has already begun in a number of localities. This article seeks to broaden the adaptation effort by integrating it with broader frameworks of hazards research, sustainability science, and community and regional resilience. To extend the range of experience, we draw from ongoing case studies in the Southeastern United States and the environmental historymore » of New Orleans to consider the multiple threats and stresses that all communities and regions experience. Embedding climate adaptation in responses to multiple threats and stresses helps us to understand climate change impacts, themselves often products of multiple stresses, to achieve community acceptance of needed adaptations as co-benefits of addressing multiple threats, and to mainstream the process of climate adaptation through the larger envelope of social relationships, communication channels, and broad-based awareness of needs for risk management that accompany community resilience.« less

Adaption of the LUCI framework to account for detailed farm management: a case study exploring potential for achieving locally and nationally significant greenhouse gas, flooding and nutrient mitigation without compromising livelihoods on New Zealand farm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Bethanna; Trodahl, Martha; Maxwell, Deborah; Easton, Stuart

2016-04-01

This talk discusses recent progress in adapting the Land Utilisation and Capability Indicator (LUCI) framework to take account of the impact of detailed farm management on greenhouse gas emissions and on water, sediment and nutrient delivery to waterways. LUCI is a land management decision support framework which examines the impact of current and potential interventions on a variety of outcomes, including flood mitigation, water supply, greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, erosion, sediment and nutrient delivery to waterways, and agricultural production. The potential of the landscape to provide benefits is a function of both the biophysical properties of individual landscape elements and their configuration. Both are respected in LUCI where possible. For example, the hydrology, sediment and chemical routing algorithms are based on physical principles of hillslope flow, taking information on the storage and permeability capacity of elements within the landscape from soil and land use data and honoring physical thresholds, mass and energy balance constraints. LUCI discretizes hydrological response units within the landscape according to similarity of their hydraulic properties and preserves spatially explicit topographical routing. Implications of keeping the "status quo" or potential scenarios of land management change can then be evaluated under different meteorological or climatic events (e.g. flood return periods, rainfall events, droughts), cascading water through the hydrological response units using a "fill and spill" approach. These and other component algorithms are designed to be fast-running while maintaining physical consistency and fine spatial detail. This allows it to operate from subfield level scale to catchment, or even national scale, simultaneously. It analyses and communicates the spatial pattern of individual provision and tradeoffs/synergies between desired outcomes at detailed resolutions and provides suggestions on where management change could be most efficiently targeted to meet water quality targets while maintaining production. Historically, LUCI has inferred land management from nationally available land cover categorisations, so lacked the capacity to discriminate between differences in more detailed management (tillage information, type of irrigation system, stocking numbers and type, etc). However, recently a collaboration with a farmer cooperative has commenced. LUCI is being further developed to take in a range of more detailed management information, which can be entered directly to LUCI or easily integrated via existing farm management files. Example output using a variety of management scenarios and ongoing "validation" of LUCI's performance at the farm scale will be presented using New Zealand crop, beef and dairy farms as case studies.

Naval Open Architecture Machinery Control Systems for Next Generation Integrated Power Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-01

PORTABLE) OS / RTOS ADAPTATION MIDDLEWARE (FOR OS PORTABILITY) MACHINERY CONTROLLER FRAMEWORK MACHINERY CONTROL SYSTEM SERVICES POWER CONTROL SYSTEM...SERVICES SHIP SYSTEM SERVICES TTY 0 TTY N … OPERATING SYSTEM ( OS / RTOS ) COMPUTER HARDWARE UDP IP TCP RAW DEV 0 DEV N … POWER MANAGEMENT CONTROLLER...operating systems (DOS, Windows, Linux, OS /2, QNX, SCO Unix ...) COMPUTERS: ISA compatible motherboards, workstations and portables (Compaq, Dell

Validation of a Framework for Measuring Hospital Disaster Resilience Using Factor Analysis

PubMed Central

Zhong, Shuang; Clark, Michele; Hou, Xiang-Yu; Zang, Yuli; FitzGerald, Gerard

2014-01-01

Hospital disaster resilience can be defined as “the ability of hospitals to resist, absorb, and respond to the shock of disasters while maintaining and surging essential health services, and then to recover to its original state or adapt to a new one.” This article aims to provide a framework which can be used to comprehensively measure hospital disaster resilience. An evaluation framework for assessing hospital resilience was initially proposed through a systematic literature review and Modified-Delphi consultation. Eight key domains were identified: hospital safety, command, communication and cooperation system, disaster plan, resource stockpile, staff capability, disaster training and drills, emergency services and surge capability, and recovery and adaptation. The data for this study were collected from 41 tertiary hospitals in Shandong Province in China, using a specially designed questionnaire. Factor analysis was conducted to determine the underpinning structure of the framework. It identified a four-factor structure of hospital resilience, namely, emergency medical response capability (F1), disaster management mechanisms (F2), hospital infrastructural safety (F3), and disaster resources (F4). These factors displayed good internal consistency. The overall level of hospital disaster resilience (F) was calculated using the scoring model: F = 0.615F1 + 0.202F2 + 0.103F3 + 0.080F4. This validated framework provides a new way to operationalise the concept of hospital resilience, and it is also a foundation for the further development of the measurement instrument in future studies. PMID:24945190

Advanced, Adaptive, Modular, Distributed, Generic Universal FADEC Framework for Intelligent Propulsion Control Systems (Preprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

AFRL-RZ-WP-TP-2008-2044 ADVANCED, ADAPTIVE, MODULAR, DISTRIBUTED, GENERIC UNIVERSAL FADEC FRAMEWORK FOR INTELLIGENT PROPULSION CONTROL...GRANT NUMBER 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE ADVANCED, ADAPTIVE, MODULAR, DISTRIBUTED, GENERIC UNIVERSAL FADEC FRAMEWORK FOR INTELLIGENT PROPULSION... FADEC is unique and expensive to develop, produce, maintain, and upgrade for its particular application. Each FADEC is a centralized system, with a

An Integrated Framework to Analyze Local Decision Making and Adaptation to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Regions in Santos-Brazil, Broward County-USA and Selsey-UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marengo, J. A.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Pelling, M.; Reynolds, C. J.; Merril, S. B.; Nunes, L. H.; Paterson, S.; Gray, A.; Lockman, J. T.; Kartez, J.; Moreira, F.; Greco, R.; Harari, J.; Souza, C. G.; Alves, L. M.; Hosokawa, E.; Tabuchi, E.

2016-12-01

One of the clear signals of present climate change is sea level rise (SLR). There is mounting evidence of other changes, including warmer temperatures in many localities, and changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme meteorological events, including wind, rain, and waves. A rising sea level combined with these factors and tides is expected to affect coastal communities through a number of processes, including increased risk of flooding and contamination of water sources. An international collaboration between Brazil, the United Kingdom, and the United States was designed to evaluate local decision making processes and to open convening space for local urban managers to reflect on possible actions toward adaption to SLR and the constraints imposed by framing administrative and institutional structures. The overall goal of the project is to help coastal communities better understand factors that facilitate or hinder their intrinsic, local decision-making processes related to planning for adaptation to risk. The project carried out these tests in 2014 and 2015 in one coastal city in each partnering nation. The framework was designed by an interdisciplinary team that incorporated social and natural scientists from these three nations, and which included local government officials. To support the overall goal, this paper 1) discusses some aspects of adaptive capacity and participant survey research conducted through the project, 2) presents technical modelling results for adaptation options that may reduce the potential damages of SLR and storm surge in each location, and 3) identifies project design considerations for similar transnational adaptation projects.

A framework for tracking post-wildfire trajectories and desired future conditions using NDVI time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norman, S. P.; Hargrove, W. W.; Lee, D. C.; Spruce, J.

2013-12-01

Wildfires could provide a cost-effective means to maintain or restore some aspects of fire-adapted landscapes. Yet with the added influence of climate change and invasives, wildfires may also facilitate or accelerate undesired type conversions. As megafires are becoming increasingly common across portions of the US West, managers require a framework for long-term monitoring that integrates the trajectories of fire-prone landscapes and objectives, not just conditions immediately after a burn. Systematic use of satellite data provides an efficient cross-jurisdictional solution to this problem. Since 2000, MODIS-technology has provided high frequency, 240m resolution observations of Earth. Using this data stream, the ForWarn system, developed through a partnership of the US Forest Service, NASA-Stennis and others, provides 46 estimates of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) per year for the conterminous US. From this time series, a variety of secondary metrics have been derived including median annual NDVI, amplitude, and phenological spikiness. Each is both a fire and recovery sensitive measure that allows managers to systematically track conditions with respect to either the pre-fire baseline or desired future conditions more adaptively. In dry interior forests where wildfires could be used to thin stands, recovery to untreated conditions may not be desired given fuels objectives or climate change. In more mesic systems, fire effects may be monitored as staged succession. With both coarse filter monitoring and desired conditions in hand, managers can better recognize and prioritize problems in disturbance-prone landscapes.

Early decision framework for integrating sustainable risk management for complex remediation sites: Drivers, barriers, and performance metrics.

PubMed

Harclerode, Melissa A; Macbeth, Tamzen W; Miller, Michael E; Gurr, Christopher J; Myers, Teri S

2016-12-15

As the environmental remediation industry matures, remaining sites often have significant underlying technical challenges and financial constraints. More often than not, significant remediation efforts at these "complex" sites have not achieved stringent, promulgated cleanup goals. Decisions then have to be made about whether and how to commit additional resources towards achieving those goals, which are often not achievable nor required to protect receptors. Guidance on cleanup approaches focused on evaluating and managing site-specific conditions and risks, rather than uniformly meeting contaminant cleanup criteria in all media, is available to aid in this decision. Although these risk-based cleanup approaches, such as alternative endpoints and adaptive management strategies, have been developed, they are under-utilized due to environmental, socio-economic, and risk perception barriers. Also, these approaches are usually implemented late in the project life cycle after unsuccessful remedial attempts to achieve stringent cleanup criteria. In this article, we address these barriers by developing an early decision framework to identify if site characteristics support sustainable risk management, and develop performance metrics and tools to evaluate and implement successful risk-based cleanup approaches. In addition, we address uncertainty and risk perception challenges by aligning risk-based cleanup approaches with the concepts of risk management and sustainable remediation. This approach was developed in the context of lessons learned from implementing remediation at complex sites, but as a framework can, and should, be applied to all sites undergoing remediation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Generating Models of Infinite-State Communication Protocols Using Regular Inference with Abstraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aarts, Fides; Jonsson, Bengt; Uijen, Johan

In order to facilitate model-based verification and validation, effort is underway to develop techniques for generating models of communication system components from observations of their external behavior. Most previous such work has employed regular inference techniques which generate modest-size finite-state models. They typically suppress parameters of messages, although these have a significant impact on control flow in many communication protocols. We present a framework, which adapts regular inference to include data parameters in messages and states for generating components with large or infinite message alphabets. A main idea is to adapt the framework of predicate abstraction, successfully used in formal verification. Since we are in a black-box setting, the abstraction must be supplied externally, using information about how the component manages data parameters. We have implemented our techniques by connecting the LearnLib tool for regular inference with the protocol simulator ns-2, and generated a model of the SIP component as implemented in ns-2.

A Roy model study of adapting to being HIV positive.

PubMed

Perrett, Stephanie E; Biley, Francis C

2013-10-01

Roy's adaptation model outlines a generic process of adaptation useful to nurses in any situation where a patient is facing change. To advance nursing practice, nursing theories and frameworks must be constantly tested and developed through research. This article describes how the results of a qualitative grounded theory study have been used to test components of the Roy adaptation model. A framework for "negotiating uncertainty" was the result of a grounded theory study exploring adaptation to HIV. This framework has been compared to the Roy adaptation model, strengthening concepts such as focal and contextual stimuli, Roy's definition of adaptation and her description of adaptive modes, while suggesting areas for further development including the role of perception. The comparison described in this article demonstrates the usefulness of qualitative research in developing nursing models, specifically highlighting opportunities to continue refining Roy's work.

Studying the clinical encounter with the Adaptive Leadership framework.

PubMed

Bailey, Donald E; Docherty, Sharron L; Adams, Judith A; Carthron, Dana L; Corazzini, Kirsten; Day, Jennifer R; Neglia, Elizabeth; Thygeson, Marcus; Anderson, Ruth A

2012-08-01

In this paper we discuss the concept of leadership as a personal capability, not contingent on one's position in a hierarchy. This type of leadership allows us to reframe both the care-giving and organizational roles of nurses and other front-line clinical staff. Little research has been done to explore what leadership means at the point of care, particularly in reference to the relationship between health care practitioners and patients and their family caregivers. The Adaptive Leadership framework, based on complexity science theory, provides a useful lens to explore practitioners' leadership behaviors at the point of care. This framework proposes that there are two broad categories of challenges that patients face: technical and adaptive. Whereas technical challenges are addressed with technical solutions that are delivered by practitioners, adaptive challenges require the patient (or family member) to adjust to a new situation and to do the work of adapting, learning, and behavior change. Adaptive leadership is the work that practitioners do to mobilize and support patients to do the adaptive work. The purpose of this paper is to describe this framework and demonstrate its application to nursing research. We demonstrate the framework's utility with five exemplars of nursing research problems that range from the individual to the system levels. The framework has the potential to guide researchers to ask new questions and to gain new insights into how practitioners interact with patients at the point of care to increase the patient's ability to tackle challenging problems and improve their own health care outcomes. It is a potentially powerful framework for developing and testing a new generation of interventions to address complex issues by harnessing and learning about the adaptive capabilities of patients within their life contexts.

Global Change adaptation in water resources management: the Water Change project.

PubMed

Pouget, Laurent; Escaler, Isabel; Guiu, Roger; Mc Ennis, Suzy; Versini, Pierre-Antoine

2012-12-01

In recent years, water resources management has been facing new challenges due to increasing changes and their associated uncertainties, such as changes in climate, water demand or land use, which can be grouped under the term Global Change. The Water Change project (LIFE+ funding) developed a methodology and a tool to assess the Global Change impacts on water resources, thus helping river basin agencies and water companies in their long term planning and in the definition of adaptation measures. The main result of the project was the creation of a step by step methodology to assess Global Change impacts and define strategies of adaptation. This methodology was tested in the Llobregat river basin (Spain) with the objective of being applicable to any water system. It includes several steps such as setting-up the problem with a DPSIR framework, developing Global Change scenarios, running river basin models and performing a cost-benefit analysis to define optimal strategies of adaptation. This methodology was supported by the creation of a flexible modelling system, which can link a wide range of models, such as hydrological, water quality, and water management models. The tool allows users to integrate their own models to the system, which can then exchange information among them automatically. This enables to simulate the interactions among multiple components of the water cycle, and run quickly a large number of Global Change scenarios. The outcomes of this project make possible to define and test different sets of adaptation measures for the basin that can be further evaluated through cost-benefit analysis. The integration of the results contributes to an efficient decision-making on how to adapt to Global Change impacts. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

AMModels: An R package for storing models, data, and metadata to facilitate adaptive management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donovan, Therese M.; Katz, Jonathan

2018-01-01

Agencies are increasingly called upon to implement their natural resource management programs within an adaptive management (AM) framework. This article provides the background and motivation for the R package, AMModels. AMModels was developed under R version 3.2.2. The overall goal of AMModels is simple: To codify knowledge in the form of models and to store it, along with models generated from numerous analyses and datasets that may come our way, so that it can be used or recalled in the future. AMModels facilitates this process by storing all models and datasets in a single object that can be saved to an .RData file and routinely augmented to track changes in knowledge through time. Through this process, AMModels allows the capture, development, sharing, and use of knowledge that may help organizations achieve their mission. While AMModels was designed to facilitate adaptive management, its utility is far more general. Many R packages exist for creating and summarizing models, but to our knowledge, AMModels is the only package dedicated not to the mechanics of analysis but to organizing analysis inputs, analysis outputs, and preserving descriptive metadata. We anticipate that this package will assist users hoping to preserve the key elements of an analysis so they may be more confidently revisited at a later date.

An innovative cross-sectoral method for implementation of trade-off adaptation strategy assessment under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsao, Jung-Hsuan; Tung, Ching-Pin; Liu, Tzu-Ming

2014-05-01

Climate change will increase sharp risks to the water and food supply in coming decades. Although impact assessment and adaptation evaluation has been discussed a lot in recent years, the importance of adaptation implement should not be ignored. In Taiwan, and elsewhere, fallow is an option of adaptation strategy under climate change. Fallow would improve the water scarcity of domestic use, but the food security might be threatened. The trade-off effects of adaptation actions are just like the side effects of medicine which cannot be avoided. Thus, managing water resources with an integrated approach will be urgent. This study aims to establish a cross-sectoral framework for implementation the trade-off adaptation strategy. Not only fallow, but also other trade-off strategy like increasing the percentage of national grain self-sufficiency would be analyzed by a rational decision process. The recent percentage of grain self-sufficiency in Taiwan is around 32, which was decreasing from 53 thirty years ago. Yet, the goal of increasing grain self-sufficiency means much more water must be used in agriculture. In that way, domestic users may face the water shortage situation. Considering the conflicts between water supply and food security, the concepts from integrative negotiation are appropriate to apply. The implementation of trade-off adaptation strategies needs to start by quantifying the utility of water supply and food security were be quantified. Next, each side's bottom line can be found by BATNA (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement) and ZOPA (Zone of Possible Agreement). ZOPA provides the entire possible outcomes, and BATNA ensures the efficiency of adaptation actions by moving along with Pareto frontier. Therefore, the optimal percentage of fallow and grain self-sufficiency can be determined. Furthermore, BATNA also provides the pathway step by step which can be a guideline of adaptation strategies. This framework allows analysts and stakeholder to systematically evaluate trade-off adaptation strategies and indicate the priority to implement.

Parameterized hardware description as object oriented hardware model implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drabik, Pawel K.

2010-09-01

The paper introduces novel model for design, visualization and management of complex, highly adaptive hardware systems. The model settles component oriented environment for both hardware modules and software application. It is developed on parameterized hardware description research. Establishment of stable link between hardware and software, as a purpose of designed and realized work, is presented. Novel programming framework model for the environment, named Graphic-Functional-Components is presented. The purpose of the paper is to present object oriented hardware modeling with mentioned features. Possible model implementation in FPGA chips and its management by object oriented software in Java is described.

Structured decision making as a conceptual framework to identify thresholds for conservation and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, J.; Runge, M.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Lubow, B.C.; Kendall, W.L.

2009-01-01

Thresholds and their relevance to conservation have become a major topic of discussion in the ecological literature. Unfortunately, in many cases the lack of a clear conceptual framework for thinking about thresholds may have led to confusion in attempts to apply the concept of thresholds to conservation decisions. Here, we advocate a framework for thinking about thresholds in terms of a structured decision making process. The purpose of this framework is to promote a logical and transparent process for making informed decisions for conservation. Specification of such a framework leads naturally to consideration of definitions and roles of different kinds of thresholds in the process. We distinguish among three categories of thresholds. Ecological thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes bring about substantial changes in system dynamics. Utility thresholds are components of management objectives (determined by human values) and are values of state or performance variables at which small changes yield substantial changes in the value of the management outcome. Decision thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes prompt changes in management actions in order to reach specified management objectives. The approach that we present focuses directly on the objectives of management, with an aim to providing decisions that are optimal with respect to those objectives. This approach clearly distinguishes the components of the decision process that are inherently subjective (management objectives, potential management actions) from those that are more objective (system models, estimates of system state). Optimization based on these components then leads to decision matrices specifying optimal actions to be taken at various values of system state variables. Values of state variables separating different actions in such matrices are viewed as decision thresholds. Utility thresholds are included in the objectives component, and ecological thresholds may be embedded in models projecting consequences of management actions. Decision thresholds are determined by the above-listed components of a structured decision process. These components may themselves vary over time, inducing variation in the decision thresholds inherited from them. These dynamic decision thresholds can then be determined using adaptive management. We provide numerical examples (that are based on patch occupancy models) of structured decision processes that include all three kinds of thresholds. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Evaluating success criteria and project monitoring in river enhancement within an adaptive management framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnell, T. K.; Galat, D.L.

2008-01-01

Objective setting, performance measures, and accountability are important components of an adaptive-management approach to river-enhancement programs. Few lessons learned by river-enhancement practitioners in the United States have been documented and disseminated relative to the number of projects implemented. We conducted scripted telephone surveys with river-enhancement project managers and practitioners within the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) to determine the extent of setting project success criteria, monitoring, evaluation of monitoring data, and data dissemination. Investigation of these elements enabled a determination of those that inhibited adaptive management. Seventy river enhancement projects were surveyed. Only 34% of projects surveyed incorporated a quantified measure of project success. Managers most often relied on geophysical attributes of rivers when setting project success criteria, followed by biological communities. Ninety-one percent of projects that performed monitoring included biologic variables, but the lack of data collection before and after project completion and lack of field-based reference or control sites will make future assessments of ecologic success difficult. Twenty percent of projects that performed monitoring evaluated ???1 variable but did not disseminate their evaluations outside their organization. Results suggest greater incentives may be required to advance the science of river enhancement. Future river-enhancement programs within the UMRB and elsewhere can increase knowledge gained from individual projects by offering better guidance on setting success criteria before project initiation and evaluation through established monitoring protocols. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Integrated Adaptive Scenarios for Ariculture: Synergies and Tradeoffs.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malek, K.; Rajagopalan, K.; Adam, J. C.; Brady, M.; Stockle, C.; Liu, M.; Kruger, C. E.

2017-12-01

A wide variety of factors can drive adaptation of the agricultural production sector in response to climate change. Warming and increased growing season length can lead to adoption of newer plant varieties as well as increases in double cropping systems. Changes in expectations of drought frequency or economic factors could lead to adoption of new technology (such as irrigation technology or water trading systems) or crop choices with a view of reducing farm-level risk, and these choices can result in unintended system wide effects. These are all examples of producer adaptation decisions made with a long-term (multiple decades) view. In addition, producers respond to short-term (current year) shocks - such as drought events - through management strategies that include deficit irrigation, fallowing, nutrient management, and engaging in water trading. The effects of these short- and long-term decisions are not independent, and can drive or be driven by the other. For example, investment in new irrigation systems (long-term) can be driven by expectations of short-term crop productivity losses in drought years. Similarly, the capacity to manage for short-term shocks will depend on crop type and variety as well as adopted irrigation technologies. Our overarching objective is to understand the synergies and tradeoffs that exist when combining three potential long-term adaptation strategies and two short-term adaptation strategies, with a view of understanding the synergies and tradeoffs. We apply the integrated crop-hydrology modeling framework VIC-CropSyst, along with the water management module Yakima RiverWare to address these questions over our test area, the Yakima River basin. We consider adoption of a) more efficient irrigation technologies, slower growing crop varieties, and increased prevalence of double cropping systems as long-term adaptation strategies; and b) fallowing and deficit irrigation as short-term responses to droughts. We evaluate the individual and combined effect of these strategies on agricultural production. Preliminary results indicate that long-term adaptation strategies impact short-run adaptive capacities to drought shocks. The strategies are complementary under certain situations and results in tradeoffs in other situations, and we characterize these differences.

From Decent Work to Decent Lives: Positive Self and Relational Management (PS&RM) in the Twenty-First Century

PubMed Central

Di Fabio, Annamaria; Kenny, Maureen E.

2016-01-01

The aim of the present study is to empirically test the theoretical model, Positive Self and Relational Management (PS&RM), for a sample of 184 Italian university students. The PS&RM model specifies the development of individuals' strengths, potentials, and talents across the lifespan and with regard to the dialect of self in relationship. PS&RM is defined theoretically by three constructs: Positive Lifelong Life Management, Positive Lifelong Self-Management, Positive Lifelong Relational Management. The three constructs are operationalized as follows: Positive Lifelong Life Management is measured by the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS), the Satisfaction With Life Scale (SWLS), the Meaningful Life Measure (MLM), and the Authenticity Scale (AS); Positive Lifelong Self-Management is measured by the Intrapreneurial Self-Capital Scale (ISC), the Career Adapt-Abilities Scale (CAAS), and the Life Project Reflexivity Scale (LPRS); and Positive Lifelong Relational Management is measured by the Trait Emotional Intelligence Questionnaire (TEIQue), the Multidimensional Scale for Perceived Social Support (MSPSS), and the Positive Relational Management Scale (PRMS). Confirmatory factor analysis of the PS&RM model was completed using structural equation modeling. The theoretical PS&RM model was empirically tested as defined by the three hypothesized constructs. Empirical support for this model offers a framework for further research and the design of preventive interventions to promote decent work and decent lives in the twenty-first century. PMID:27047406

AMRZone: A Runtime AMR Data Sharing Framework For Scientific Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Wenzhao; Tang, Houjun; Harenberg, Steven

Frameworks that facilitate runtime data sharing across multiple applications are of great importance for scientific data analytics. Although existing frameworks work well over uniform mesh data, they can not effectively handle adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) data. Among the challenges to construct an AMR-capable framework include: (1) designing an architecture that facilitates online AMR data management; (2) achieving a load-balanced AMR data distribution for the data staging space at runtime; and (3) building an effective online index to support the unique spatial data retrieval requirements for AMR data. Towards addressing these challenges to support runtime AMR data sharing across scientific applications,more » we present the AMRZone framework. Experiments over real-world AMR datasets demonstrate AMRZone's effectiveness at achieving a balanced workload distribution, reading/writing large-scale datasets with thousands of parallel processes, and satisfying queries with spatial constraints. Moreover, AMRZone's performance and scalability are even comparable with existing state-of-the-art work when tested over uniform mesh data with up to 16384 cores; in the best case, our framework achieves a 46% performance improvement.« less

Public Health Climate Change Adaptation Planning Using Stakeholder Feedback.

PubMed

Eidson, Millicent; Clancy, Kathleen A; Birkhead, Guthrie S

2016-01-01

Public health climate change adaptation planning is an urgent priority requiring stakeholder feedback. The 10 Essential Public Health Services can be applied to adaptation activities. To develop a state health department climate and health adaptation plan as informed by stakeholder feedback. With Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funding, the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) implemented a 2010-2013 climate and health planning process, including 7 surveys on perceptions and adaptation priorities. New York State Department of Health program managers participated in initial (n = 41, denominator unknown) and follow-up (72.2%) needs assessments. Surveillance system information was collected from 98.1% of surveillance system managers. For adaptation prioritization surveys, participants included 75.4% of NYSDOH leaders; 60.3% of local health departments (LHDs); and 53.7% of other stakeholders representing environmental, governmental, health, community, policy, academic, and business organizations. Interviews were also completed with 38.9% of other stakeholders. In 2011 surveys, 34.1% of state health program directors believed that climate change would impact their program priorities. However, 84.6% of state health surveillance system managers provided ideas for using databases for climate and health monitoring/surveillance. In 2012 surveys, 46.5% of state health leaders agreed they had sufficient information about climate and health compared to 17.1% of LHDs (P = .0046) and 40.9% of other stakeholders (nonsignificant difference). Significantly fewer (P < .0001) LHDs (22.9%) were incorporating or considering incorporating climate and health into planning compared to state health leaders (55.8%) and other stakeholders (68.2%). Stakeholder groups agreed on the 4 highest priority adaptation categories including core public health activities such as surveillance, coordination/collaboration, education, and policy development. Feedback from diverse stakeholders was utilized by NYSDOH to develop its Climate and Health Strategic Map in 2013. The CDC Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework and funding provides a collaborative model for state climate and health adaptation planning.

Development of a Core Curriculum Framework in Cariology for U.S. Dental Schools.

PubMed

Fontana, Margherita; Guzmán-Armstrong, Sandra; Schenkel, Andrew B; Allen, Kennneth L; Featherstone, John; Goolsby, Susie; Kanjirath, Preetha; Kolker, Justine; Martignon, Stefania; Pitts, Nigel; Schulte, Andreas; Slayton, Rebecca L; Young, Douglas; Wolff, Mark

2016-06-01

Maintenance of health and preservation of tooth structure through risk-based prevention and patient-centered, evidence-based disease management, reassessed at regular intervals over time, are the cornerstones of present-day caries management. Yet management of caries based on risk assessment that goes beyond restorative care has not had a strong place in curriculum development and competency assessment in U.S. dental schools. The aim of this study was to develop a competency-based core cariology curriculum framework for use in U.S. dental schools. The Section on Cariology of the American Dental Education Association (ADEA) organized a one-day consensus workshop, followed by a meeting program, to adapt the European Core Cariology Curriculum to the needs of U.S. dental education. Participants in the workshop were 73 faculty members from 35 U.S., three Canadian, and four international dental schools. Representatives from all 65 U.S. dental schools were then invited to review and provide feedback on a draft document. A recommended competency statement on caries management was also developed: "Upon graduation, a dentist must be competent in evidence-based detection, diagnosis, risk assessment, prevention, and nonsurgical and surgical management of dental caries, both at the individual and community levels, and be able to reassess the outcomes of interventions over time." This competency statement supports a curriculum framework built around five domains: 1) knowledge base; 2) risk assessment, diagnosis, and synthesis; 3) treatment decision making: preventive strategies and nonsurgical management; 4) treatment decision making: surgical therapy; and 5) evidence-based cariology in clinical and public health practice. Each domain includes objectives and learning outcomes.

CReaTE Excellence: Using a Teacher Framework to Maximize STEM Learning with Your Child

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tassell, Janet; Maxwell, Margaret; Stobaugh, Rebecca

2013-01-01

Gifted children crave meaning through learning experiences, and they are naturally inquisitive. This article provides a teaching framework that parents can adapt for use with gifted children to help facilitate STEM knowledge and skills. The CReaTE Framework, adapted from an evolving lesson plan framework, can promote learning in a nontraditional,…

Translating reference doses into allergen management practice: challenges for stakeholders.

PubMed

Crevel, René W R; Baumert, Joseph L; Luccioli, Stefano; Baka, Athanasia; Hattersley, Sue; Hourihane, Jonathan O'B; Ronsmans, Stefan; Timmermans, Frans; Ward, Rachel; Chung, Yong-joo

2014-05-01

Risk assessment describes the impact of a particular hazard as a function of dose and exposure. It forms the foundation of risk management and contributes to the overall decision-making process, but is not its endpoint. This paper outlines a risk analysis framework to underpin decision-making in the area of allergen cross-contact. Specifically, it identifies challenges relevant to each component of the risk analysis: risk assessment (data gaps and output interpretation); risk management (clear and realistic objectives); and risk communication (clear articulation of risk and benefit). Translation of the outputs from risk assessment models into risk management measures must be informed by a clear understanding of the model outputs and their limitations. This will lead to feasible and achievable risk management objectives, grounded in a level of risk accepted by the different stakeholders, thereby avoiding potential unintended detrimental consequences. Clear, consistent and trustworthy communications actively involving all stakeholders underpin these objectives. The conclusions, integrating the perspectives of different stakeholders, offer a vision where clear, science-based benchmarks form the basis of allergen management and labelling, cutting through the current confusion and uncertainty. Finally, the paper recognises that the proposed framework must be adaptable to new and emerging evidence. Copyright © 2014 ILSI Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Improving the relevance and impact of decision support research: A co-production framework and water management case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, R.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Dilling, L.; Basdekas, L.; Kaatz, L.

2016-12-01

In light of the unpredictable effects of climate change and population shifts, responsible resource management will require new types of information and strategies going forward. For water utilities, this means that water supply infrastructure systems must be expanded and/or managed for changes in overall supply and increased extremes. Utilities have begun seeking innovative tools and methods to support planning and decision making, but there are limited channels through which they can gain exposure to emerging tools from the research world, and for researchers to uptake important real-world planning and decision context. A transdisciplinary team of engineers, social and climate scientists, and water managers designed this study to develop and apply a co-production framework which explores the potential of an emerging decision support tool to enhance flexibility and adaptability in water utility planning. It also demonstrates how to improve the link between research and practice in the water sector. In this study we apply the co-production framework to the use of Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs). MOEAs have shown promise in being able to generate and evaluate new planning alternatives but they have had little testing or application in water utilities. Anchored by two workshops, this study (1) elicited input from water managers from six water suppliers on the Front Range of Colorado, USA, to create a testbed MOEA application, and (2) evaluated the managers' responses to multiobjective optimization results. The testbed consists of a Front Range-relevant hypothetical water supply model, the Borg MOEA, hydrology and demand scenarios, and a set of planning decisions and performance objectives that drive the link between the algorithm and the model. In this presentation we describe researcher-manager interactions at the initial workshop that served to establish relationships and provide in-depth information to researchers about regional water management context. We also describe the development of, and experiences from, the second workshop which included activities for water managers to interact directly with MOEA testbed results. Finally, we evaluate the co-production framework itself and the potential for the feedback from managers to shape future development of decision support tools.

Climate change and forests of the future: Managing in the face of uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millar, C.I.; Stephenson, N.L.; Stephens, S.L.

2007-01-01

We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different approaches for different situations. Resources managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies (actions that help ecosystems accommodate changes adaptively) and mitigation strategies (actions that enable ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate) into overall plans. Adaptive strategies include resistance options (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources), resilience options (improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to desired conditions after disturbance), and response options (facilitate transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions). Mitigation strategies include options to sequester carbon and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. Priority-setting approaches (e.g., triage), appropriate for rapidly changing conditions and for situations where needs are greater than available capacity to respond, will become increasingly important in the future. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Iterative management of heat early warning systems in a changing climate.

PubMed

Hess, Jeremy J; Ebi, Kristie L

2016-10-01

Extreme heat is a leading weather-related cause of morbidity and mortality, with heat exposure becoming more widespread, frequent, and intense as climates change. The use of heat early warning and response systems (HEWSs) that integrate weather forecasts with risk assessment, communication, and reduction activities is increasingly widespread. HEWSs are frequently touted as an adaptation to climate change, but little attention has been paid to the question of how best to ensure effectiveness of HEWSs as climates change further. In this paper, we discuss findings showing that HEWSs satisfy the tenets of an intervention that facilitates adaptation, but climate change poses challenges infrequently addressed in heat action plans, particularly changes in the onset, duration, and intensity of dangerously warm temperatures, and changes over time in the relationships between temperature and health outcomes. Iterative management should be central to a HEWS, and iteration cycles should be of 5 years or less. Climate change adaptation and implementation science research frameworks can be used to identify HEWS modifications to improve their effectiveness as temperature continues to rise, incorporating scientific insights and new understanding of effective interventions. We conclude that, at a minimum, iterative management activities should involve planned reassessment at least every 5 years of hazard distribution, population-level vulnerability, and HEWS effectiveness. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

Data management for the internet of things: design primitives and solution.

PubMed

Abu-Elkheir, Mervat; Hayajneh, Mohammad; Ali, Najah Abu

2013-11-14

The Internet of Things (IoT) is a networking paradigm where interconnected, smart objects continuously generate data and transmit it over the Internet. Much of the IoT initiatives are geared towards manufacturing low-cost and energy-efficient hardware for these objects, as well as the communication technologies that provide objects interconnectivity. However, the solutions to manage and utilize the massive volume of data produced by these objects are yet to mature. Traditional database management solutions fall short in satisfying the sophisticated application needs of an IoT network that has a truly global-scale. Current solutions for IoT data management address partial aspects of the IoT environment with special focus on sensor networks. In this paper, we survey the data management solutions that are proposed for IoT or subsystems of the IoT. We highlight the distinctive design primitives that we believe should be addressed in an IoT data management solution, and discuss how they are approached by the proposed solutions. We finally propose a data management framework for IoT that takes into consideration the discussed design elements and acts as a seed to a comprehensive IoT data management solution. The framework we propose adapts a federated, data- and sources-centric approach to link the diverse Things with their abundance of data to the potential applications and services that are envisioned for IoT.

Data Management for the Internet of Things: Design Primitives and Solution

PubMed Central

Abu-Elkheir, Mervat; Hayajneh, Mohammad; Ali, Najah Abu

2013-01-01

The Internet of Things (IoT) is a networking paradigm where interconnected, smart objects continuously generate data and transmit it over the Internet. Much of the IoT initiatives are geared towards manufacturing low-cost and energy-efficient hardware for these objects, as well as the communication technologies that provide objects interconnectivity. However, the solutions to manage and utilize the massive volume of data produced by these objects are yet to mature. Traditional database management solutions fall short in satisfying the sophisticated application needs of an IoT network that has a truly global-scale. Current solutions for IoT data management address partial aspects of the IoT environment with special focus on sensor networks. In this paper, we survey the data management solutions that are proposed for IoT or subsystems of the IoT. We highlight the distinctive design primitives that we believe should be addressed in an IoT data management solution, and discuss how they are approached by the proposed solutions. We finally propose a data management framework for IoT that takes into consideration the discussed design elements and acts as a seed to a comprehensive IoT data management solution. The framework we propose adapts a federated, data- and sources-centric approach to link the diverse Things with their abundance of data to the potential applications and services that are envisioned for IoT. PMID:24240599

Use of intervention mapping to adapt a health behavior change intervention for endometrial cancer survivors: the shape-up following cancer treatment program.

PubMed

Koutoukidis, Dimitrios A; Lopes, Sonia; Atkins, Lou; Croker, Helen; Knobf, M Tish; Lanceley, Anne; Beeken, Rebecca J

2018-03-27

About 80% of endometrial cancer survivors (ECS) are overweight or obese and have sedentary behaviors. Lifestyle behavior interventions are promising for improving dietary and physical activity behaviors, but the constructs associated with their effectiveness are often inadequately reported. The aim of this study was to systematically adapt an evidence-based behavior change program to improve healthy lifestyle behaviors in ECS. Following a review of the literature, focus groups and interviews were conducted with ECS (n = 16). An intervention mapping protocol was used for the program adaptation, which consisted of six steps: a needs assessment, formulation of matrices of change objectives, selection of theoretical methods and practical applications, program production, adoption and implementation planning, and evaluation planning. Social Cognitive Theory and Control Theory guided the adaptation of the intervention. The process consisted of eight 90-min group sessions focusing on shaping outcome expectations, knowledge, self-efficacy, and goals about healthy eating and physical activity. The adapted performance objectives included establishment of regular eating, balanced diet, and portion sizes, reduction in sedentary behaviors, increase in lifestyle and organized activities, formulation of a discrepancy-reducing feedback loop for all above behaviors, and trigger management. Information on managing fatigue and bowel issues unique to ECS were added. Systematic intervention mapping provided a framework to design a cancer survivor-centered lifestyle intervention. ECS welcomed the intervention and provided essential feedback for its adaptation. The program has been evaluated through a randomized controlled trial.

Effects of dynamic agricultural decision making in an ecohydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichenau, T. G.; Krimly, T.; Schneider, K.

2012-04-01

Due to various interdependencies between the cycles of water, carbon, nitrogen, and energy the impacts of climate change on ecohydrological systems can only be investigated in an integrative way. Furthermore, the human intervention in the environmental processes makes the system even more complex. On the one hand human impact affects natural systems. On the other hand the changing natural systems have a feedback on human decision making. One of the most important examples for this kind of interaction can be found in the agricultural sector. Management dates (planting, fertilization, harvesting) are chosen based on meteorological conditions and yield expectations. A faster development of crops under a warmer climate causes shorter cropping seasons. The choice of crops depends on their profitability, which is mainly determined by market prizes, the agro-political framework, and the (climate dependent) crop yield. This study investigates these relations for the district Günzburg located in the Upper Danube catchment in southern Germany. The modeling system DANUBIA was used to perform dynamically coupled simulations of plant growth, surface and soil hydrological processes, soil nitrogen transformations, and agricultural decision making. The agro-economic model simulates decisions on management dates (based on meteorological conditions and the crops' development state), on fertilization intensities (based on yield expectations), and on choice of crops (based on profitability). The environmental models included in DANUBIA are to a great extent process based to enable its use in a climate change scenario context. Scenario model runs until 2058 were performed using an IPCC A1B forcing. In consecutive runs, dynamic crop management, dynamic crop selection, and a changing agro-political framework were activated. Effects of these model features on hydrological and ecological variables were analyzed separately by comparing the results to a model run with constant crop distribution and constant management. Results show that the influence of the modeled dynamic management adaptation on variables like transpiration, carbon uptake, or nitrate leaching from the vadose zone is stronger than the influence of a dynamic choice of crops. Climate change was found to have a stronger impact on this modeled choice of crops than the agro-political framework. These results suggest that scenario studies in areas with a large share of arable land should take into account management adaptations to changing climate.

Self-organizing network services with evolutionary adaptation.

PubMed

Nakano, Tadashi; Suda, Tatsuya

2005-09-01

This paper proposes a novel framework for developing adaptive and scalable network services. In the proposed framework, a network service is implemented as a group of autonomous agents that interact in the network environment. Agents in the proposed framework are autonomous and capable of simple behaviors (e.g., replication, migration, and death). In this paper, an evolutionary adaptation mechanism is designed using genetic algorithms (GAs) for agents to evolve their behaviors and improve their fitness values (e.g., response time to a service request) to the environment. The proposed framework is evaluated through simulations, and the simulation results demonstrate the ability of autonomous agents to adapt to the network environment. The proposed framework may be suitable for disseminating network services in dynamic and large-scale networks where a large number of data and services need to be replicated, moved, and deleted in a decentralized manner.

When trends intersect: The challenge of protecting freshwater ecosystems under multiple land use and hydrological intensification scenarios.

PubMed

Davis, Jenny; O'Grady, Anthony P; Dale, Allan; Arthington, Angela H; Gell, Peter A; Driver, Patrick D; Bond, Nick; Casanova, Michelle; Finlayson, Max; Watts, Robyn J; Capon, Samantha J; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Tingley, Reid; Fry, Brian; Page, Timothy J; Specht, Alison

2015-11-15

Intensification of the use of natural resources is a world-wide trend driven by the increasing demand for water, food, fibre, minerals and energy. These demands are the result of a rising world population, increasing wealth and greater global focus on economic growth. Land use intensification, together with climate change, is also driving intensification of the global hydrological cycle. Both processes will have major socio-economic and ecological implications for global water availability. In this paper we focus on the implications of land use intensification for the conservation and management of freshwater ecosystems using Australia as an example. We consider this in the light of intensification of the hydrologic cycle due to climate change, and associated hydrological scenarios that include the occurrence of more intense hydrological events (extreme storms, larger floods and longer droughts). We highlight the importance of managing water quality, the value of providing environmental flows within a watershed framework and the critical role that innovative science and adaptive management must play in developing proactive and robust responses to intensification. We also suggest research priorities to support improved systemic governance, including adaptation planning and management to maximise freshwater biodiversity outcomes while supporting the socio-economic objectives driving land use intensification. Further research priorities include: i) determining the relative contributions of surface water and groundwater in supporting freshwater ecosystems; ii) identifying and protecting freshwater biodiversity hotspots and refugia; iii) improving our capacity to model hydro-ecological relationships and predict ecological outcomes from land use intensification and climate change; iv) developing an understanding of long term ecosystem behaviour; and v) exploring systemic approaches to enhancing governance systems, including planning and management systems affecting freshwater outcomes. A major policy challenge will be the integration of land and water management, which increasingly are being considered within different policy frameworks. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrating an agent-based model into a large-scale hydrological model for evaluating drought management in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; He, X.; Wada, Y.; Burek, P.; Kahil, M.; Wood, E. F.; Oppenheimer, M.

2017-12-01

California has endured record-breaking drought since winter 2011 and will likely experience more severe and persistent drought in the coming decades under changing climate. At the same time, human water management practices can also affect drought frequency and intensity, which underscores the importance of human behaviour in effective drought adaptation and mitigation. Currently, although a few large-scale hydrological and water resources models (e.g., PCR-GLOBWB) consider human water use and management practices (e.g., irrigation, reservoir operation, groundwater pumping), none of them includes the dynamic feedback between local human behaviors/decisions and the natural hydrological system. It is, therefore, vital to integrate social and behavioral dimensions into current hydrological modeling frameworks. This study applies the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach and couples it with a large-scale hydrological model (i.e., Community Water Model, CWatM) in order to have a balanced representation of social, environmental and economic factors and a more realistic representation of the bi-directional interactions and feedbacks in coupled human and natural systems. In this study, we focus on drought management in California and considers two types of agents, which are (groups of) farmers and state management authorities, and assumed that their corresponding objectives are to maximize the net crop profit and to maintain sufficient water supply, respectively. Farmers' behaviors are linked with local agricultural practices such as cropping patterns and deficit irrigation. More precisely, farmers' decisions are incorporated into CWatM across different time scales in terms of daily irrigation amount, seasonal/annual decisions on crop types and irrigated area as well as the long-term investment of irrigation infrastructure. This simulation-based optimization framework is further applied by performing different sets of scenarios to investigate and evaluate the effectiveness of different water management strategies and how policy interventions will facilitate drought adaptation in California.

Development of agent-based on-line adaptive signal control (ASC) framework using connected vehicle (CV) technology.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-04-01

In this study, we developed an adaptive signal control (ASC) framework for connected vehicles (CVs) using agent-based modeling technique. : The proposed framework consists of two types of agents: 1) vehicle agents (VAs); and 2) signal controller agen...

The Roy Adaptation Model: A Theoretical Framework for Nurses Providing Care to Individuals With Anorexia Nervosa.

PubMed

Jennings, Karen M

Using a nursing theoretical framework to understand, elucidate, and propose nursing research is fundamental to knowledge development. This article presents the Roy Adaptation Model as a theoretical framework to better understand individuals with anorexia nervosa during acute treatment, and the role of nursing assessments and interventions in the promotion of weight restoration. Nursing assessments and interventions situated within the Roy Adaptation Model take into consideration how weight restoration does not occur in isolation but rather reflects an adaptive process within external and internal environments, and has the potential for more holistic care.

Science to support adaptive habitat management: Overton Bottoms North Unit, Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge, Missouri [Volumes 1-6

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.

2006-01-01

Extensive efforts are underway along the Lower Missouri River to rehabilitate ecosystem functions in the channel and flood plain. Considerable uncertainty inevitably accompanies ecosystem restoration efforts, indicating the benefits of an adaptive management approach in which management actions are treated as experiments, and results provide information to feed back into the management process. The Overton Bottoms North Unit of the Big Muddy National Fish and Wildlife Refuge is a part of the Missouri River Fish and Wildlife Habitat Mitigation Project. The dominant management action at the Overton Bottoms North Unit has been excavation of a side-channel chute to increase hydrologic connectivity and to enhance shallow, slow current-velocity habitat. The side-channel chute also promises to increase hydrologic gradients, and may serve to alter patterns of wetland inundation and vegetation community growth in undesired ways. The U.S. Geological Survey's Central Region Integrated Studies Program (CRISP) undertook interdisciplinary research at the Overton Bottoms North Unit in 2003 to address key areas of scientific uncertainty that were highly relevant to ongoing adaptive management of the site, and to the design of similar rehabilitation projects on the Lower Missouri River. This volume presents chapters documenting the surficial geologic, topographic, surface-water, and ground-water framework of the Overton Bottoms North Unit. Retrospective analysis of vegetation community trends over the last 10 years is used to evaluate vegetation responses to reconnection of the Overton Bottoms North Unit to the river channel. Quasi-experimental analysis of cottonwood growth rate variation along hydrologic gradients is used to evaluate sensitivity of terrestrial vegetation to development of aquatic habitats. The integrated, landscape-specific understanding derived from these studies illustrates the value of scientific information in design and management of rehabilitation projects.

Science-society collaboration for robust adaptation planning in water management - The Maipo River Basin in Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ocampo Melgar, Anahí; Vicuña, Sebastián; Gironás, Jorge

2015-04-01

The Metropolitan Region (M.R.) in Chile is populated by over 6 million people and supplied by the Maipo River and its large number of irrigation channels. Potential environmental alterations caused by global change will extremely affect managers and users of water resources in this semi-arid basin. These hydro-climatological impacts combined with demographic and economic changes will be particularly complex in the city of Santiago, due to the diverse, counterpoised and equally important existing activities and demands. These challenges and complexities request the implementation of flexible plans and actions to adapt policies, institutions, infrastructure and behaviors to a new future with climate change. Due to the inherent uncertainties in the future, a recent research project entitled MAPA (Maipo Adaptation Plan for its initials in Spanish) has formed a collaborative science-society platform to generate insights into the vulnerabilities, challenges and possible mitigation measures that would be necessary to deal with the potential changes in the M.R. This large stakeholder platform conformed by around 30 public, private and civil society organizations, both at the local and regional level and guided by a Robust Decision Making Framework (RDMF) has identified vulnerabilities, future scenarios, performance indicators and mitigation measures for the Maipo River basin. The RDMF used in this project is the XLRM framework (Lempert et al. 2006) that incorporates policy levers (L), exogenous uncertainties (X), measures of performance standards (M) and relationships (R) in an interlinked process. Both stakeholders' expertise and computational capabilities have been used to create hydrological models for the urban, rural and highland sectors supported also by the Water Evaluation and Planning system software (WEAP). The identification of uncertainties and land use transition trends was used to develop future development scenarios to explore possible water management challenges. Finally a collaborative process guided by the Water Security concept resulted in the identification of local-based performance indicators that will be used to evaluate scenarios and the need for adaptation measures. This collaborative approach has allowed capturing the general aspirations of different water users in this basin and identifying the main challenges and possible adaptation measures that will be necessary to explore if some of these scenarios become real. Furthermore, this science-society effort has formed the basis for a more extended and long-term collaboration for the implementation of adaptation measures to other unavoidable land-based changes in the Maipo river basin.

The Fortune of the Commons: Participatory Evaluation of Small-Scale Fisheries in the Brazilian Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oviedo, Antonio F. P.; Bursztyn, Marcel

2016-05-01

This paper applies a participatory approach in evaluating small-scale fisheries, focusing on the Arapaima gigas fishery in the Brazilian Amazon. The evaluation uses the social-ecological system (SES) framework, adopted to explain the conditions needed for sustainability and user cooperation in natural resources management, as a more suitable alternative to the `blueprint' or `panaceas' approaches, based only on property rights or governmental intervention. However, managers and users often do not have the necessary information compiled and available for a specific SES while some actions need to be taken immediately. Thus, consensus and negotiation among stakeholders about SES variables may be useful to evaluate system performance and indicate actions to promote sustainability. In the case study, using a consensus-building model, we found that arapaima SES leads to sustainability and is far from being a case of `tragedy of the commons.' More investments in suitable monitoring and enforcement for adaptive management are recommended. Adopting an SES framework based on stakeholders' prospects may be useful until complete interdisciplinary studies become available so as to seek of sustainability in the long term.

VieSLAF Framework: Enabling Adaptive and Versatile SLA-Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandic, Ivona; Music, Dejan; Leitner, Philipp; Dustdar, Schahram

Novel computing paradigms like Grid and Cloud computing demand guarantees on non-functional requirements such as application execution time or price. Such requirements are usually negotiated following a specific Quality of Service (QoS) model and are expressed using Service Level Agreements (SLAs). Currently available QoS models assume either that service provider and consumer have matching SLA templates and common understanding of the negotiated terms or provide public templates, which can be downloaded and utilized by the end users. On the one hand, matching SLA templates represent an unrealistic assumption in systems where service consumer and provider meet dynamically and on demand. On the other hand, handling of public templates seems to be a rather challenging issue, especially if the templates do not reflect users’ needs. In this paper we present VieSLAF, a novel framework for the specification and management of SLA mappings. Using VieSLAF users may specify, manage, and apply SLA mapping bridging the gap between non-matching SLA templates. Moreover, based on the predefined learning functions and considering accumulated SLA mappings, domain specific public SLA templates can be derived reflecting users’ needs.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Complexity: A Model-Based Scenario Approach to Supporting Integrated Water Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Gupta, H.; Wagener, T.; Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Hartmann, H.; Springer, E.

2007-12-01

Some of the most challenging issues facing contemporary water resources management are those typified by complex coupled human-environmental systems with poorly characterized uncertainties. In other words, major decisions regarding water resources have to be made in the face of substantial uncertainty and complexity. It has been suggested that integrated models can be used to coherently assemble information from a broad set of domains, and can therefore serve as an effective means for tackling the complexity of environmental systems. Further, well-conceived scenarios can effectively inform decision making, particularly when high complexity and poorly characterized uncertainties make the problem intractable via traditional uncertainty analysis methods. This presentation discusses the integrated modeling framework adopted by SAHRA, an NSF Science & Technology Center, to investigate stakeholder-driven water sustainability issues within the semi-arid southwestern US. The multi-disciplinary, multi-resolution modeling framework incorporates a formal scenario approach to analyze the impacts of plausible (albeit uncertain) alternative futures to support adaptive management of water resources systems. Some of the major challenges involved in, and lessons learned from, this effort will be discussed.

Using complexity science and negotiation theory to resolve boundary-crossing water issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, Shafiqul; Susskind, Lawrence

2018-07-01

Many water governance and management issues are complex. The complexity of these issues is related to crossing of multiple boundaries: political, social and jurisdictional, as well as physical, ecological and biogeochemical. Resolution of these issues usually requires interactions of many parties with conflicting values and interests operating across multiple boundaries and scales to make decisions. The interdependence and feedback among interacting variables, processes, actors and institutions are hard to model and difficult to forecast. Thus, decision-making related to complex water problems needs be contingent and adaptive. This paper draws on a number of ideas from complexity science and negotiation theory that may make it easier to cope with the complexities and difficulties of managing boundary crossing water disputes. It begins with the Water Diplomacy Framework that was developed and tested over the past several years. Then, it uses three key ideas from complexity science (interdependence and interconnectedness; uncertainty and feedback; emergence and adaptation) and three from negotiation theory (stakeholder identification and engagement; joint fact finding; and value creation through option generation) to show how application of these ideas can help enhance effectiveness of water management.

Design Framework for an Adaptive MOOC Enhanced by Blended Learning: Supplementary Training and Personalized Learning for Teacher Professional Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gynther, Karsten

2016-01-01

The research project has developed a design framework for an adaptive MOOC that complements the MOOC format with blended learning. The design framework consists of a design model and a series of learning design principles which can be used to design in-service courses for teacher professional development. The framework has been evaluated by…

A modified theoretical framework to assess implementation fidelity of adaptive public health interventions.

PubMed

Pérez, Dennis; Van der Stuyft, Patrick; Zabala, Maríadel Carmen; Castro, Marta; Lefèvre, Pierre

2016-07-08

One of the major debates in implementation research turns around fidelity and adaptation. Fidelity is the degree to which an intervention is implemented as intended by its developers. It is meant to ensure that the intervention maintains its intended effects. Adaptation is the process of implementers or users bringing changes to the original design of an intervention. Depending on the nature of the modifications brought, adaptation could either be potentially positive or could carry the risk of threatening the theoretical basis of the intervention, resulting in a negative effect on expected outcomes. Adaptive interventions are those for which adaptation is allowed or even encouraged. Classical fidelity dimensions and conceptual frameworks do not address the issue of how to adapt an intervention while still maintaining its effectiveness. We support the idea that fidelity and adaptation co-exist and that adaptations can impact either positively or negatively on the intervention's effectiveness. For adaptive interventions, research should answer the question how an adequate fidelity-adaptation balance can be reached. One way to address this issue is by looking systematically at the aspects of an intervention that are being adapted. We conducted fidelity research on the implementation of an empowerment strategy for dengue prevention in Cuba. In view of the adaptive nature of the strategy, we anticipated that the classical fidelity dimensions would be of limited use for assessing adaptations. The typology we used in the assessment-implemented, not-implemented, modified, or added components of the strategy-also had limitations. It did not allow us to answer the question which of the modifications introduced in the strategy contributed to or distracted from outcomes. We confronted our empirical research with existing literature on fidelity, and as a result, considered that the framework for implementation fidelity proposed by Carroll et al. in 2007 could potentially meet our concerns. We propose modifications to the framework to assess both fidelity and adaptation. The modified Carroll et al.'s framework we propose may permit a comprehensive assessment of the implementation fidelity-adaptation balance required when implementing adaptive interventions, but more empirical research is needed to validate it.

Ecologically-Relevant Maps of Landforms and Physiographic Diversity for Climate Adaptation Planning

PubMed Central

Theobald, David M.; Harrison-Atlas, Dylan; Monahan, William B.; Albano, Christine M.

2015-01-01

Key to understanding the implications of climate and land use change on biodiversity and natural resources is to incorporate the physiographic platform on which changes in ecological systems unfold. Here, we advance a detailed classification and high-resolution map of physiography, built by combining landforms and lithology (soil parent material) at multiple spatial scales. We used only relatively static abiotic variables (i.e., excluded climatic and biotic factors) to prevent confounding current ecological patterns and processes with enduring landscape features, and to make the physiographic classification more interpretable for climate adaptation planning. We generated novel spatial databases for 15 landform and 269 physiographic types across the conterminous United States of America. We examined their potential use by natural resource managers by placing them within a contemporary climate change adaptation framework, and found our physiographic databases could play key roles in four of seven general adaptation strategies. We also calculated correlations with common empirical measures of biodiversity to examine the degree to which the physiographic setting explains various aspects of current biodiversity patterns. Additionally, we evaluated the relationship between landform diversity and measures of climate change to explore how changes may unfold across a geophysical template. We found landform types are particularly sensitive to spatial scale, and so we recommend using high-resolution datasets when possible, as well as generating metrics using multiple neighborhood sizes to both minimize and characterize potential unknown biases. We illustrate how our work can inform current strategies for climate change adaptation. The analytical framework and classification of landforms and parent material are easily extendable to other geographies and may be used to promote climate change adaptation in other settings. PMID:26641818

A Systems-Based Conceptual Framework for Assessing the Determinants of a Social License to Operate in the Mining Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prno, Jason; Slocombe, D. Scott

2014-03-01

The concept of a "social license to operate" (SLO) was coined in the 1990s and gained popularity as one way in which "social" considerations can be addressed in mineral development decision making. The need for a SLO implies that developers require the widespread approval of local community members for their projects to avoid exposure to potentially costly conflict and business risks. Only a limited amount of scholarship exists on the topic, and there is a need for research that specifically addresses the complex and changeable nature of SLO outcomes. In response to these challenges, this paper advances a novel, systems-based conceptual framework for assessing SLO determinants and outcomes in the mining industry. Two strands of systems theory are specifically highlighted—complex adaptive systems and resilience—and the roles of context, key system variables, emergence, change, uncertainty, feedbacks, cross-scale effects, multiple stable states, thresholds, and resilience are discussed. The framework was developed from the results of a multi-year research project which involved international mining case study investigations, a comprehensive literature review, and interviews conducted with mining stakeholders and observers. The framework can help guide SLO analysis and management efforts, by encouraging users to account for important contextual and complexity-oriented elements present in SLO settings. We apply the framework to a case study in Alaska, USA before discussing its merits and challenges. We also illustrate knowledge gaps associated with applications of complex adaptive systems and resilience theories to the study of SLO dynamics, and discuss opportunities for future research.

A systems-based conceptual framework for assessing the determinants of a social license to operate in the mining industry.

PubMed

Prno, Jason; Slocombe, D Scott

2014-03-01

The concept of a "social license to operate" (SLO) was coined in the 1990s and gained popularity as one way in which "social" considerations can be addressed in mineral development decision making. The need for a SLO implies that developers require the widespread approval of local community members for their projects to avoid exposure to potentially costly conflict and business risks. Only a limited amount of scholarship exists on the topic, and there is a need for research that specifically addresses the complex and changeable nature of SLO outcomes. In response to these challenges, this paper advances a novel, systems-based conceptual framework for assessing SLO determinants and outcomes in the mining industry. Two strands of systems theory are specifically highlighted-complex adaptive systems and resilience-and the roles of context, key system variables, emergence, change, uncertainty, feedbacks, cross-scale effects, multiple stable states, thresholds, and resilience are discussed. The framework was developed from the results of a multi-year research project which involved international mining case study investigations, a comprehensive literature review, and interviews conducted with mining stakeholders and observers. The framework can help guide SLO analysis and management efforts, by encouraging users to account for important contextual and complexity-oriented elements present in SLO settings. We apply the framework to a case study in Alaska, USA before discussing its merits and challenges. We also illustrate knowledge gaps associated with applications of complex adaptive systems and resilience theories to the study of SLO dynamics, and discuss opportunities for future research.

Assessing climate change-robustness of protected area management plans-The case of Germany.

PubMed

Geyer, Juliane; Kreft, Stefan; Jeltsch, Florian; Ibisch, Pierre L

2017-01-01

Protected areas are arguably the most important instrument of biodiversity conservation. To keep them fit under climate change, their management needs to be adapted to address related direct and indirect changes. In our study we focus on the adaptation of conservation management planning, evaluating management plans of 60 protected areas throughout Germany with regard to their climate change-robustness. First, climate change-robust conservation management was defined using 11 principles and 44 criteria, which followed an approach similar to sustainability standards. We then evaluated the performance of individual management plans concerning the climate change-robustness framework. We found that climate change-robustness of protected areas hardly exceeded 50 percent of the potential performance, with most plans ranking in the lower quarter. Most Natura 2000 protected areas, established under conservation legislation of the European Union, belong to the sites with especially poor performance, with lower values in smaller areas. In general, the individual principles showed very different rates of accordance with our principles, but similarly low intensity. Principles with generally higher performance values included holistic knowledge management, public accountability and acceptance as well as systemic and strategic coherence. Deficiencies were connected to dealing with the future and uncertainty. Lastly, we recommended the presented principles and criteria as essential guideposts that can be used as a checklist for working towards more climate change-robust planning.

Assessing climate change-robustness of protected area management plans—The case of Germany

PubMed Central

Geyer, Juliane; Kreft, Stefan; Jeltsch, Florian; Ibisch, Pierre L.

2017-01-01

Protected areas are arguably the most important instrument of biodiversity conservation. To keep them fit under climate change, their management needs to be adapted to address related direct and indirect changes. In our study we focus on the adaptation of conservation management planning, evaluating management plans of 60 protected areas throughout Germany with regard to their climate change-robustness. First, climate change-robust conservation management was defined using 11 principles and 44 criteria, which followed an approach similar to sustainability standards. We then evaluated the performance of individual management plans concerning the climate change-robustness framework. We found that climate change-robustness of protected areas hardly exceeded 50 percent of the potential performance, with most plans ranking in the lower quarter. Most Natura 2000 protected areas, established under conservation legislation of the European Union, belong to the sites with especially poor performance, with lower values in smaller areas. In general, the individual principles showed very different rates of accordance with our principles, but similarly low intensity. Principles with generally higher performance values included holistic knowledge management, public accountability and acceptance as well as systemic and strategic coherence. Deficiencies were connected to dealing with the future and uncertainty. Lastly, we recommended the presented principles and criteria as essential guideposts that can be used as a checklist for working towards more climate change-robust planning. PMID:28982187

The Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center synthesis report 2011–15—Projects, products, and science priorities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Varela Minder, Elda; Lascurain, Aranzazu R.; McMahon, Gerard

2016-09-28

IntroductionIn 2009, the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Secretary Ken Salazar established a network of eight regional Climate Science Centers (CSCs) that, along with the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), would help define and implement the Department's climate adaptation response. The Southeast Climate Science Center (SE CSC) was established at North Carolina State University (NCSU) in Raleigh, North Carolina, in 2010, under a 5-year cooperative agreement with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), to identify and address the regional challenges presented by climate change and variability in the Southeastern United States. All eight regional CSC hosts, including NCSU, were selected through a competitive process.Since its opening, the focus of the SE CSC has been on working with partners in the identification and development of research-based information that can assist managers, including cultural and natural resource managers, in adapting to global change processes, such as climate and land use change, that operate at local to global scales and affect resources important to the DOI mission. The SE CSC was organized to accomplish three goals:Provide co-produced, researched based, actionable science that supports transparent global change adaptation decisions.Convene conversations among decision makers, scientists, and managers to identify key ecosystem adaptation decisions driven by climate and land use change, the values and objectives that will be used to make decisions, and the research-based information needed to assess adaptation options.Build the capacity of natural resource professionals, university faculty, and students to understand and frame natural resource adaptation decisions and develop and use research-based information to make adaptation decisions.This report provides an overview of the SE CSC and the projects developed by the SE CSC since its inception. An important goal of this report is to provide a framework for understanding the evolution of the SE CSC science agenda, which has evolved over the first 5 years of the Center’s operation.

Systematic evaluation of deep learning based detection frameworks for aerial imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sommer, Lars; Steinmann, Lucas; Schumann, Arne; Beyerer, Jürgen

2018-04-01

Object detection in aerial imagery is crucial for many applications in the civil and military domain. In recent years, deep learning based object detection frameworks significantly outperformed conventional approaches based on hand-crafted features on several datasets. However, these detection frameworks are generally designed and optimized for common benchmark datasets, which considerably differ from aerial imagery especially in object sizes. As already demonstrated for Faster R-CNN, several adaptations are necessary to account for these differences. In this work, we adapt several state-of-the-art detection frameworks including Faster R-CNN, R-FCN, and Single Shot MultiBox Detector (SSD) to aerial imagery. We discuss adaptations that mainly improve the detection accuracy of all frameworks in detail. As the output of deeper convolutional layers comprise more semantic information, these layers are generally used in detection frameworks as feature map to locate and classify objects. However, the resolution of these feature maps is insufficient for handling small object instances, which results in an inaccurate localization or incorrect classification of small objects. Furthermore, state-of-the-art detection frameworks perform bounding box regression to predict the exact object location. Therefore, so called anchor or default boxes are used as reference. We demonstrate how an appropriate choice of anchor box sizes can considerably improve detection performance. Furthermore, we evaluate the impact of the performed adaptations on two publicly available datasets to account for various ground sampling distances or differing backgrounds. The presented adaptations can be used as guideline for further datasets or detection frameworks.

An evidence-based public health approach to climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Hess, Jeremy J; Eidson, Millicent; Tlumak, Jennifer E; Raab, Kristin K; Luber, George

2014-11-01

Public health is committed to evidence-based practice, yet there has been minimal discussion of how to apply an evidence-based practice framework to climate change adaptation. Our goal was to review the literature on evidence-based public health (EBPH), to determine whether it can be applied to climate change adaptation, and to consider how emphasizing evidence-based practice may influence research and practice decisions related to public health adaptation to climate change. We conducted a substantive review of EBPH, identified a consensus EBPH framework, and modified it to support an EBPH approach to climate change adaptation. We applied the framework to an example and considered implications for stakeholders. A modified EBPH framework can accommodate the wide range of exposures, outcomes, and modes of inquiry associated with climate change adaptation and the variety of settings in which adaptation activities will be pursued. Several factors currently limit application of the framework, including a lack of higher-level evidence of intervention efficacy and a lack of guidelines for reporting climate change health impact projections. To enhance the evidence base, there must be increased attention to designing, evaluating, and reporting adaptation interventions; standardized health impact projection reporting; and increased attention to knowledge translation. This approach has implications for funders, researchers, journal editors, practitioners, and policy makers. The current approach to EBPH can, with modifications, support climate change adaptation activities, but there is little evidence regarding interventions and knowledge translation, and guidelines for projecting health impacts are lacking. Realizing the goal of an evidence-based approach will require systematic, coordinated efforts among various stakeholders.

A scenario framework to explore the future migration and adaptation in deltas: A multi-scale and participatory approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kebede, Abiy S.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Inaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A.; Hill, Chris T.; Hutton, Craig W.; Kay, Susan; Lawn, Jon; Lazar, Attila N.; Whitehead, Paul W.

2017-04-01

Coastal deltas are home for over 500 million people globally, and they have been identified as one of the most vulnerable coastal environments during the 21st century. They are susceptible to multiple climatic (e.g., sea-level rise, storm surges, change in temperature and precipitation) and socio-economic (e.g., human-induced subsidence, population and urbanisation changes, GDP growth) drivers of change. These drivers also operate at multiple scales, ranging from local to global and short- to long-term. This highlights the complex challenges deltas face in terms of both their long-term sustainability as well as the well-being of their residents and the health of ecosystems that support the livelihood of large (often very poor) population under uncertain changing conditions. A holistic understanding of these challenges and the potential impacts of future climate and socio-economic changes is central for devising robust adaptation policies. Scenario analysis has long been identified as a strategic management tool to explore future climate change and its impacts for supporting robust decision-making under uncertainty. This work presents the overall scenario framework, methodology, and processes adopted for the development of scenarios in the DECCMA* project. DECCMA is analysing the future of three deltas in South Asia and West Africa: (i) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Volta delta (Ghana). This includes comparisons between these three deltas. Hence, the scenario framework comprises a multi-scale hybrid approach, with six levels of scenario considerations: (i) global (climate change, e.g., sea-level rise, temperature change; and socio-economic assumptions, e.g., population and urbanisation changes, GDP growth); (ii) regional catchments (e.g., river flow modelling), (iii) regional seas (e.g., fisheries modelling), (iv) regional politics (e.g., transboundary disputes), (v) national (e.g., socio-economic factors), and (vi) delta-scale (e.g., future adaptation and migration policies) scenarios. The framework includes and combines expert-based and participatory approaches and provides improved specification of the role of scenarios to analyse the future state of adaptation and migration across the three deltas. It facilitates the development of appropriate and consistent endogenous and exogenous scenario futures: (i) at the delta-scale, (ii) across all deltas, and (iii) with wider climate change, environmental change, and adaptation & migration research. Key words: Coastal deltas, sea-level rise, migration and adaptation, multi-scale scenarios, participatory approach *DECCMA (Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation) project is part of the Collaborative ADAPTATION Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government's Department for International Development (DFID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada.

Integrated impact assessment of climate change, land use, and adaptation policies on water quality in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trautvetter, Helen; Schoenhart, Martin; Parajaka, Juraj; Schmid, Erwin; Zessner, Matthias

2017-04-01

Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time and adds considerable stress to the human society and environment. A change in climate will not only shift general weather patterns, but might also increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. These changes in climatic conditions will affect the quality and quantity of water resources both directly as well as indirectly through autonomous adaptation by farmers (e.g. cultivar choices, fertilization intensity or soil management). This will influence the compliance with the good ecological and chemical status according to the EU Water Framework Directive. We present results from an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to tackle those direct and indirect impacts and analyze policy options for planned adaptation in agricultural land use and sustainable management of land and water resources until 2040. The IIMF is the result of an interdisciplinary collaboration among economists, agronomists, and hydrologists. It consists of the bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUWmodel and the surface water emission model MONERIS. Scenarios have been developed and parameterized in collaboration with stakeholders in order to facilitate multi-actor knowledge transfer. The set of climate change scenarios until 2040 includes three scenarios with equal temperature changes but varying precipitation patterns. They are combined with potential socio-economic and policy development. The latter include water protection measures on fertilization management, soil management, or crop rotation choices. We will presented the development of interfaces among the research, the definition of scenarios and major scenario results for Austria. We will focus on nutrient emissions to surface waters, which are the major link between the different models. The results, available at watershed level indicate the significant impact on future precipitation development on the risk of not achieving nutrient criteria of the good ecological water quality status of surface waters. Policy measures show relatively low impacts for nitrogen, while they may highly affect the phosphorus emissions and hence the compliance with environmental quality standards for phosphate phosphorus.

Insights for the assessment of the economic impact of endemic diseases: specific adaptation of economic frameworks using the case of bovine viral diarrhoea.

PubMed

Stott, A W; Gunn, G J

2017-04-01

Generic frameworks for the economic analysis of farm animal disease are now well established. The paper, therefore, uses bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) as an example to explore how these frameworks need to be adapted to fit the characteristics of a particular disease and the specific objectives of the analysis. In the case of BVD, given the relative strength of tests available to correctly identify virus-positive animals, thus enabling them to be culled, the emphasis has been on cost-benefit analysis of regional and national certification/eradication schemes. Such analyses in turn raise interesting questions about farmer uptake and maintenance of certification schemes and the equity and cost-effective implementation of these schemes. The complex epidemiology of BVD virus infections and the long-term, widespread and often occult nature of BVD effects make economic analysis of the disease and its control particularly challenging. However, this has resulted in a wider whole-farm perspective that captures the influence of multiple decisions, not just those directly associated with disease prevention and control. There is a need to include management of reproduction, risk and enterprise mix in the research on farmer decision-making, as all these factors impinge on, and are affected by, the spread of BVD.

Developing a Shuffled Complex-Self Adaptive Hybrid Evolution (SC-SAHEL) Framework for Water Resources Management and Water-Energy System Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahnamay Naeini, M.; Sadegh, M.; AghaKouchak, A.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.; Yang, T.

2017-12-01

Meta-Heuristic optimization algorithms have gained a great deal of attention in a wide variety of fields. Simplicity and flexibility of these algorithms, along with their robustness, make them attractive tools for solving optimization problems. Different optimization methods, however, hold algorithm-specific strengths and limitations. Performance of each individual algorithm obeys the "No-Free-Lunch" theorem, which means a single algorithm cannot consistently outperform all possible optimization problems over a variety of problems. From users' perspective, it is a tedious process to compare, validate, and select the best-performing algorithm for a specific problem or a set of test cases. In this study, we introduce a new hybrid optimization framework, entitled Shuffled Complex-Self Adaptive Hybrid EvoLution (SC-SAHEL), which combines the strengths of different evolutionary algorithms (EAs) in a parallel computing scheme, and allows users to select the most suitable algorithm tailored to the problem at hand. The concept of SC-SAHEL is to execute different EAs as separate parallel search cores, and let all participating EAs to compete during the course of the search. The newly developed SC-SAHEL algorithm is designed to automatically select, the best performing algorithm for the given optimization problem. This algorithm is rigorously effective in finding the global optimum for several strenuous benchmark test functions, and computationally efficient as compared to individual EAs. We benchmark the proposed SC-SAHEL algorithm over 29 conceptual test functions, and two real-world case studies - one hydropower reservoir model and one hydrological model (SAC-SMA). Results show that the proposed framework outperforms individual EAs in an absolute majority of the test problems, and can provide competitive results to the fittest EA algorithm with more comprehensive information during the search. The proposed framework is also flexible for merging additional EAs, boundary-handling techniques, and sampling schemes, and has good potential to be used in Water-Energy system optimal operation and management.

An adaptive environmental effects monitoring framework for assessing the influences of liquid effluents on benthos, water and sediments in aquatic receiving environments.

PubMed

Somers, Keith M; Kilgour, Bruce W; Munkittrick, Kelly R; Arciszewski, Tim J

2018-05-16

Environmental effects monitoring (EEM) has been traditionally used to evaluate the effects of existing facilities discharging liquid effluents into natural receiving waters in Canada. EEM also has the potential to provide feedback to an ongoing project in an adaptive management context, and can inform the design of future projects. EEM, consequently, can and should also be used to test the predictions of effects related to new projects. Despite EEM's potential for widespread applicability, challenges related to the effective implementation of EEM include the use of appropriate study designs, as well as to the adoption of tiers for increasing or decreasing monitoring intensity. Herein we describe a template for designing and implementing a six-tiered EEM program that utilizes information from the project-planning and pre-development baseline data collection stages to build on forecasts from the initial environmental impact assessment project-design stage, and feeds into an adaptive management process. Movement between the six EEM tiers is based on the exceedance of Baseline Monitoring Triggers, Forecast Triggers and Management Triggers at various stages in the EEM process. To distinguish these types of triggers, we review the historical development of numeric and narrative triggers as applied to chemical (water and sediment) and biological (plankton, benthos, fish) endpoints. We also provide an overview of historical study design issues and discuss how the six EEM tiers and associated triggers influence the temporal-spatial experimental design options and how the information gained through EEM could be used in an adaptive management context. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

A Systems Approach to Manage Drinking Water Quality ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Drinking water supplies can be vulnerable to impacts from short-term weather events, long-term changes in land-use and climate, and water quality controls in treatment and distribution. Disinfection by-product (DBP) formation in drinking water is a prominent example to illustrate the water supply vulnerability and examine technological options in adaptation. Total organic carbon (TOC) in surface water can vary significantly due to changes or a combination of changes in watershed land use, climate variability, and extreme meteorological events (e.g., hurricanes). On the other hand, water demand is known to vary temporarily and spatially leading to changes in water ages and hence DBP formation potential. Typically a drinking water facility is designed to operate within a projected range of influent water quality and water demand. When the variations exceed the design range, water supply becomes vulnerable in the compliance to Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) Stage-II disinfection by-product (DBP) rules. This paper describes a framework of systems-level modeling, monitoring and control in adaptive planning and system operation. The framework, built upon the integration of model projections, adaptive monitoring and systems control, has three primary functions. Its advantages and limitations will be discussed with the application examples in Cincinnati (Ohio, USA) and Las Vegas (Nevada, USA). At a conceptual level, an integrated land use and hydrological model

Algorithm Design of CPCI Backboard's Interrupts Management Based on VxWorks' Multi-Tasks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Jingyuan; An, Qi; Yang, Junfeng

2006-09-01

This paper begins with a brief introduction of the embedded real-time operating system VxWorks and CompactPCI standard, then gives the programming interfaces of Peripheral Controller Interface (PCI) configuring, interrupts handling and multi-tasks programming interface under VxWorks, and then emphasis is placed on the software frameworks of CPCI interrupt management based on multi-tasks. This method is sound in design and easy to adapt, ensures that all possible interrupts are handled in time, which makes it suitable for data acquisition systems with multi-channels, a high data rate, and hard real-time high energy physics.

Scenario Planning Provides a Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the National Park Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, L. A.

2012-12-01

Resource management decisions must be based on future expectations. Abundant evidence suggests climate change will have highly consequential effects on the Nation's natural and cultural resources, but specific impacts are difficult to accurately predict. This situation of too much information but not enough specificity can often lead to either paralysis or denial for decision makers. Scenario planning is an emerging tool for climate change adaptation that provides a structured framework for identifying and exploring critical drivers of change and their uncertain outcomes. Since 2007, the National Park Service (NPS) has been working with its partners to develop and apply a scenario-based approach for adaptation planning that integrates quantitative, model-driven, climate change projections with qualitative, participatory exercises to explore management and policy options under a range of future conditions. Major outcomes of this work are (1) increased understanding of key scientific results and uncertainties, (2) incorporation of alternative perspectives into park and landscape level planning, (3) identification of "no brainer" and "no gainer" actions, (4) strengthening of regional science-management partnerships, and (5) overall improved capacity for flexible decision making. The basic approach employed by NPS for scenario planning follows a typical adaptive management process: define the focal question, assess the relevant science, explore plausible futures, identify effective strategies, prioritize and implement actions, and monitor results. Many science and management partners contributed to the process, including NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs) and Regional Climate Centers (RCCs), USGS Research Centers, and other university and government scientists. The Global Business Network, an internationally recognized leader in scenario development, provided expert facilitation and training techniques. Climate science input is provided through global and regional circulation models and downscaling to arrive at climate driver information that is relevant for parks and the landscapes within which they are found. Considerable effort is necessary to synthesize the information and to effectively communicate uncertainties about both values and trend (e.g. scientists have higher confidence in the trend of temperature over a given time period than the value). Drivers that are determined to be highly consequential and uncertain are used to create management-relevant scenarios using various techniques, including a structured 2X2 matrix approach, a succession of rapid combinations using multiple variables, and the development of a base, "least change" scenario from which alternatives are then constructed. Socio-economic factors are also considered as essential factors that define the full decision environment within which management and policy decisions are made. Resulting scenarios incorporate information about impacts to natural and cultural resources as well as facilities and visitor experience. The NPS conducted prototypes for scenario planning in each of seven regions and has begun to incorporate elements of the process into all planning requirements. A significant outcome of this work is managers and scientists alike understand climate and ecosystem models provide tools for exploring the future rather than predicting it.

Impacts on Water Management and Crop Production of Regional Cropping System Adaptation to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, H.; Sun, L.; Tian, Z.; Liang, Z.; Fischer, G.

2014-12-01

China is one of the most populous and fast developing countries, also faces a great pressure on grain production and food security. Multi-cropping system is widely applied in China to fully utilize agro-climatic resources and increase land productivity. As the heat resource keep improving under climate warming, multi-cropping system will also shifting northward, and benefit crop production. But water shortage in North China Plain will constrain the adoption of new multi-cropping system. Effectiveness of multi-cropping system adaptation to climate change will greatly depend on future hydrological change and agriculture water management. So it is necessary to quantitatively express the water demand of different multi-cropping systems under climate change. In this paper, we proposed an integrated climate-cropping system-crops adaptation framework, and specifically focused on: 1) precipitation and hydrological change under future climate change in China; 2) the best multi-cropping system and correspondent crop rotation sequence, and water demand under future agro-climatic resources; 3) attainable crop production with water constraint; and 4) future water management. In order to obtain climate projection and precipitation distribution, global climate change scenario from HADCAM3 is downscaled with regional climate model (PRECIS), historical climate data (1960-1990) was interpolated from more than 700 meteorological observation stations. The regional Agro-ecological Zone (AEZ) model is applied to simulate the best multi-cropping system and crop rotation sequence under projected climate change scenario. Finally, we use the site process-based DSSAT model to estimate attainable crop production and the water deficiency. Our findings indicate that annual land productivity may increase and China can gain benefit from climate change if multi-cropping system would be adopted. This study provides a macro-scale view of agriculture adaptation, and gives suggestions to national agriculture adaptation strategy decisions.

Impacts Of Climate Change On Ecosystems Management In Africa: An Assessment Of Disaster Risk Management And Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndebele-Murisa, M. R.

2015-12-01

This paper is a synthesis of eight studies which demonstrate the interface between disaster risk management (DRM) and adaptation. The studies; conducted from November 2011 to July 2012 included diverse ecosystems from forests, coastlines, rural areas to a lake region and showed that climate change/variability are major factors among other factors such as deforestation and land degradation, unsustainable land use practices, overharvesting of natural products and invasive species encroachment that are causing changes in ecosystems. The most common extreme events reported included shifts in and shorter rainfall seasons, extended droughts, increased temperatures, extreme heat, heavy rainfall, flooding, inundation, strong winds and sea level rises. As a result of these climate phenomena, adverse impacts on ecosystems and communities were reported as biodiversity loss, reduced fish catch, reduced water for forests/agriculture/consumption, increased rough waves, coastal erosion/sediment deposition and lastly land/mud slides in order of commonality. In response to these impacts communities are practicing coping and adaptation strategies but there is a huge gap between proper DRM and adaptation. This is mainly because the adaptation is practiced as an aftermath with very little effort propelled towards proactive DRM or preparedness. In addition, national level policies are archaic and do not address the current environmental changes. This was demonstrated in Togo where wood energy potential is deteriorating at an unprecedented rate but is projected to increase between 6.4% and 101% in the near and far future if the national forest action plans are implemented; preventing an energy crisis in the country. This shows that appropriate legal and policy frameworks and well planned responses to projected extreme events and climate changes are crucial in order to prevent disasters and to achieve sustainable utilisation of resources in the continent.

Applying an ecosystem service approach to unravel links between ecosystems and society in the coast of central Chile.

PubMed

de Juan, Silvia; Gelcich, Stefan; Ospina-Alvarez, Andres; Perez-Matus, Alejandro; Fernandez, Miriam

2015-11-15

Ecosystem-based management implies understanding feedbacks between ecosystems and society. Such understanding can be approached with the Drivers-Pressures-State change-Impacts-Response framework (DPSIR), incorporating stakeholders' preferences for ecosystem services to assess impacts on society. This framework was adapted to six locations in the central coast of Chile, where artisanal fisheries coexist with an increasing influx of tourists, and a set of fisheries management areas alternate with open access areas and a no-take Marine Protected Area (MPA). The ecosystem services in the study area were quantified using biomass and species richness in intertidal and subtidal areas as biological indicators. The demand for ecosystem services was elicited by interviews to the principal groups of users. Our results evidenced decreasing landings and a negative perception of fishermen on temporal trends of catches. The occurrence of recreational fishing was negligible, although the consumption of seafood by tourists was relatively high. Nevertheless, the consumption of organisms associated to the study system was low, which could be linked, amongst other factors, to decreasing catches. The comparison of biological indicators between management regimens provided variable results, but a positive effect of management areas and the MPA on some of the metrics was observed. The prioritising of ecosystem attributes by tourists was highly homogenous across the six locations, with "scenic beauty" consistently selected as the preferred attribute, followed by "diversity". The DPSIR framework illustrated the complex interactions existing in these locations, with weak linkages between society's priorities, existing management objectives and the state of biological communities. Overall, this work improved our knowledge on relations between components of coastal areas in central Chile, of paramount importance to advance towards an ecosystem-based management in the area. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Performance assessment of human resource by integration of HSE and ergonomics and EFQM management system.

PubMed

Sadegh Amalnick, Mohsen; Zarrin, Mansour

2017-03-13

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present an integrated framework for performance evaluation and analysis of human resource (HR) with respect to the factors of health, safety, environment and ergonomics (HSEE) management system, and also the criteria of European federation for quality management (EFQM) as one of the well-known business excellence models. Design/methodology/approach In this study, an intelligent algorithm based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) along with fuzzy data envelopment analysis (FDEA) are developed and employed to assess the performance of the company. Furthermore, the impact of the factors on the company's performance as well as their strengths and weaknesses are identified by conducting a sensitivity analysis on the results. Similarly, a design of experiment is performed to prioritize the factors in the order of importance. Findings The results show that EFQM model has a far greater impact upon the company's performance than HSEE management system. According to the obtained results, it can be argued that integration of HSEE and EFQM leads to the performance improvement in the company. Practical implications In current study, the required data for executing the proposed framework are collected via valid questionnaires which are filled in by the staff of an aviation industry located in Tehran, Iran. Originality/value Managing HR performance results in improving usability, maintainability and reliability and finally in a significant reduction in the commercial aviation accident rate. Also, study of factors affecting HR performance authorities participate in developing systems in order to help operators better manage human error. This paper for the first time presents an intelligent framework based on ANFIS, FDEA and statistical tests for HR performance assessment and analysis with the ability of handling uncertainty and vagueness existing in real world environment.

Linking River Basin Modifications and Rural Soil and Water Management Practices in Tropical Deltas to Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, K. G.; Brondizio, E.; Roy, K.; Syvitski, J. P.

2015-12-01

The increased vulnerability of deltaic communities to coastal flooding as a result of upstream engineering has been acknowledged for decades. What has received less attention is the sensitivity of deltas to the interactions between river basin modifications and local scale cultivation and irrigation. Combined with reduced river and sediment discharge, soil and water management practices in coastal areas may exacerbate the risk of tidal flooding, erosion of arable land, and salinization of soils and groundwater associated with sea level rise. This represents a cruel irony to smallholder subsistence farmers whose priorities are food, water and economic security, rather than sustainability of the environment. Such issues challenge disciplinary approaches and require integrated social-biophysical models able to understand and diagnose these complex relationships. This study applies a new conceptual framework to define the relevant social and physical units operating on the common pool resources of climate, water and sediment in the Bengal Delta (Bangladesh). The new framework will inform development of a nested geospatial analysis and a coupled model to identify multi-scale social-biophysical feedbacks associated with smallholder soil and water management practices, coastal dynamics, basin modification, and climate vulnerability in tropical deltas. The framework was used to create household surveys for collecting data on climate perceptions, land and water management, and governance. Test surveys were administered to rural farmers in 14 villages during a reconnaissance visit to coastal Bangladesh. Initial results demonstrate complexity and heterogeneity at the local scale in both biophysical conditions and decision-making. More importantly, the results illuminate how national and geopolitical-level policies scale down to impact local-level environmental and social stability in communities already vulnerable to coastal flooding. Here, we will discuss components of the new conceptual framework, present results from the test surveys, and demonstrate how the framework can be dynamically adapted to reflect complex interactions at multiple scales.

Determining the causal relationships among balanced scorecard perspectives on school safety performance: case of Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Alolah, Turki; Stewart, Rodney A; Panuwatwanich, Kriengsak; Mohamed, Sherif

2014-07-01

In the public schools of many developing countries, numerous accidents and incidents occur because of poor safety regulations and management systems. To improve the educational environment in Saudi Arabia, the Ministry of Education seeks novel approaches to measure school safety performance in order to decrease incidents and accidents. The main objective of this research was to develop a systematic approach for measuring Saudi school safety performance using the balanced scorecard framework philosophy. The evolved third generation balanced scorecard framework is considered to be a suitable and robust framework that captures the system-wide leading and lagging indicators of business performance. The balanced scorecard architecture is ideal for adaptation to complex areas such as safety management where a holistic system evaluation is more effective than traditional compartmentalised approaches. In developing the safety performance balanced scorecard for Saudi schools, the conceptual framework was first developed and peer-reviewed by eighteen Saudi education experts. Next, 200 participants, including teachers, school executives, and Ministry of Education officers, were recruited to rate both the importance and the performance of 79 measurement items used in the framework. Exploratory factor analysis, followed by the confirmatory partial least squares method, was then conducted in order to operationalise the safety performance balanced scorecard, which encapsulates the following five salient perspectives: safety management and leadership; safety learning and training; safety policy, procedures and processes; workforce safety culture; and safety performance. Partial least squares based structural equation modelling was then conducted to reveal five significant relationships between perspectives, namely, safety management and leadership had a significant effect on safety learning and training and safety policy, procedures and processes, both safety learning and training and safety policy, procedures and processes had significant effects on workforce safety culture, and workforce safety culture had a significant effect on safety performance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Conceptual Framework for Planning Systemic Human Adaptation to Global Warming

PubMed Central

Tait, Peter W.; Hanna, Elizabeth G.

2015-01-01

Human activity is having multiple, inter-related effects on ecosystems. Greenhouse gas emissions persisting along current trajectories threaten to significantly alter human society. At 0.85 °C of anthropogenic warming, deleterious human impacts are acutely evident. Additional warming of 0.5 °C–1.0 °C from already emitted CO2 will further intensify extreme heat and damaging storm events. Failing to sufficiently address this trend will have a heavy human toll directly and indirectly on health. Along with mitigation efforts, societal adaptation to a warmer world is imperative. Adaptation efforts need to be significantly upscaled to prepare society to lessen the public health effects of rising temperatures. Modifying societal behaviour is inherently complex and presents a major policy challenge. We propose a social systems framework for conceptualizing adaptation that maps out three domains within the adaptation policy landscape: acclimatisation, behavioural adaptation and technological adaptation, which operate at societal and personal levels. We propose that overlaying this framework on a systems approach to societal change planning methods will enhance governments’ capacity and efficacy in strategic planning for adaptation. This conceptual framework provides a policy oriented planning assessment tool that will help planners match interventions to the behaviours being targeted for change. We provide illustrative examples to demonstrate the framework’s application as a planning tool. PMID:26334285

Useful and Usable Climate Science: Frameworks for Bridging the Social and Physical domains.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buja, L.

2016-12-01

Society is transforming the Earth's system in unprecedented ways, often with significant variations across space and time. In turn, the impacts of climate change on the human system vary dramatically due to differences in cultural, socioeconomic, institutional, and physical processes at the local level. The Climate Science and Applications Program (CSAP) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder Colorado addresses societal vulnerability, impacts and adaptation to climate change through the development of frameworks and methods for analyzing current and future vulnerability, and integrated analyses of climate impacts and adaptation at local, regional and global scales. CSAP relies heavily on GIS-based scientific data and knowledge systems to bridge social and physical science approaches in its five focus areas: Governance of inter-linked natural and managed resource systems. The role of urban areas in driving emissions of climate change Weather, climate and global human health, GIS-based science data & knowledge systems. Regional Climate Science and Services for Adaptation Advanced methodologies and frameworks for assessing current and future risks to environmental hazards through the integration of physical and social science models, research results, and remote sensing data are presented in the context of recent national and international projects on climate change and food/water security, urban carbon emissions, metropolitan extreme heat and global health. In addition, innovative CSAP international capacity building programs teaching interdisciplinary approaches for using geospatial technologies to integrate multi-scale spatial information of weather, climate change into important sectors such as disaster reduction, agriculture, tourism and society for decision-making are discussed.

Overcoming structural constraints to patient utilization of electronic medical records: a critical review and proposal for an evaluation framework.

PubMed

Winkelman, Warren J; Leonard, Kevin J

2004-01-01

There are constraints embedded in medical record structure that limit use by patients in self-directed disease management. Through systematic review of the literature from a critical perspective, four characteristics that either enhance or mitigate the influence of medical record structure on patient utilization of an electronic patient record (EPR) system have been identified: environmental pressures, physician centeredness, collaborative organizational culture, and patient centeredness. An evaluation framework is proposed for use when considering adaptation of existing EPR systems for online patient access. Exemplars of patient-accessible EPR systems from the literature are evaluated utilizing the framework. From this study, it appears that traditional information system research and development methods may not wholly capture many pertinent social issues that arise when expanding access of EPR systems to patients. Critically rooted methods such as action research can directly inform development strategies so that these systems may positively influence health outcomes.

A framework to assess landscape structural capacity to provide regulating ecosystem services in West Africa.

PubMed

Inkoom, Justice Nana; Frank, Susanne; Greve, Klaus; Fürst, Christine

2018-03-01

The Sudanian savanna landscapes of West Africa are amongst the world's most vulnerable areas to climate change impacts. Inappropriate land use and agriculture management practices continuously impede the capacity of agricultural landscapes to provide ecosystem services (ES). Given the absence of practical assessment techniques to evaluate the landscape's capacity to provide regulating ES in this region, the goal of this paper is to propose an integrative assessment framework which combines remote sensing, geographic information systems, expert weighting and landscape metrics-based assessment. We utilized Analytical Hierarchical Process and Likert scale for the expert weighting of landscape capacity. In total, 56 experts from several land use and landscape management related departments participated in the assessment. Further, we adapted the hemeroby concept to define areas of naturalness while landscape metrics including Patch Density, Shannon's Diversity, and Shape Index were utilized for structural assessment. Lastly, we tested the reliability of expert weighting using certainty measurement rated by experts themselves. Our study focused on four regulating ES including flood control, pest and disease control, climate control, and wind erosion control. Our assessment framework was tested on four selected sites in the Vea catchment area of Ghana. The outcome of our study revealed that highly heterogeneous landscapes have a higher capacity to provide pest and disease control, while less heterogeneous landscapes have a higher potential to provide climate control. Further, we could show that the potential capacities to provide ecosystem services are underestimated by 15% if landscape structural aspects assessed through landscape metrics are not considered. We conclude that the combination of adapted land use and an optimized land use pattern could contribute considerably to lower climate change impacts in West African agricultural landscapes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ocean Environmental Assessment and Adaptive Resource Management within the Framework of IOOS and CLEANER

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonner, J.; Brezonik, P.; Clesceri, N.; Gouldman, C.; Jamail, R.; Zilkoski, D.

2006-12-01

The Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS), established through the efforts of the National Office for Integrated and Sustained Ocean Observations (Oceans.US) provides quality controlled data and information on a routine and continuous basis regarding current and future states of the oceans and Great Lakes at scales from global ocean basins to coastal ecosystems. The seven societal goals of IOOS are outlined in this paper. The Engineering and Geosciences Directorates at the National Science Foundation (NSF) are collaborating in planning the WATERS (WATer Environmental Research System) Network, an outgrowth of earlier, separate initiatives of the two directorates: CLEANER (Collaborative Large-scale Engineering Analysis Network for Environmental Research) and Hydrologic Observatories. WATERS Network is being developed by engineers and scientists in the academic community who recognize the need for an observation and research network to enable better understanding of human-dominated water-environments, their stressors, and the links between them. The WATERS Network model is based on a research framework anchored in a distributed, cyber-based network supporting: 1) data collection; 2) data aggregation; 3) analytical and exploratory tools; and 4) a computational environment supporting predictive modeling and policy analysis on water resource systems. Within IOOS, the U.S. coastal margin is divided into Regional Associations (RAs), organizational units that are conceptually linked through planned data collection and analysis activities for resolving fundamental coastal margin ecosystem questions and addressing RA concerns. Under the WATERS Network scheme, a Coastal Margin Regional Environmental System (RES) for coastal areas would be defined conceptually based on geomorphologic considerations of four major water bodies; Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, Gulf of Mexico, and Laurentian Great Lakes. Within this framework, each coastal margin would operate one or more local environmental field facilities (or observatories). Mutual coordination and collaboration would exist among these coasts through RES interactions based on a cyberinfrastructure supporting all aspects of quantitative analysis. Because the U.S. Ocean Action Plan refers to the creation of a National Water Quality Monitoring Network, a close liaison between IOOS and WATERS Network could be mutually advantageous considering the shared visions, goals and objectives. A focus on activities and initiatives involving sensor and sensor networks for coastal margin observation and assessment would be a specific instance of this liaison, leveraging the infrastructural base of both organizations to maximize resource allocation. This coordinated venture with intelligent environmental systems would include new specialized coastal monitoring networks, and management of near-real-time data, including data assimilation models. An ongoing NSF planning grant aimed at environmental observatory design for coastal margins is a component of the broader WATERS Network planning for collaborative research to support adaptive and sustainable environmental management. We propose a collaborative framework between IOOS and WATERS Network wherein collaborative research will be enabled by cybernetworks to support adaptive and sustainable management of the coastal regions.

An Architecture Framework for Orchestrating Context-Aware IT Ecosystems: A Case Study for Quantitative Evaluation †.

PubMed

Park, Soojin; Park, Sungyong; Park, Young B

2018-02-12

With the emergence of various forms of smart devices and new paradigms such as the Internet of Things (IoT) concept, the IT (Information Technology) service areas are expanding explosively compared to the provision of services by single systems. A new system operation concept that has emerged in accordance with such technical trends is the IT ecosystem. The IT ecosystem can be considered a special type of system of systems in which multiple systems with various degrees of autonomy achieve common goals while adapting to the given environment. The single systems that participate in the IT ecosystem adapt autonomously to the current situation based on collected data from sensors. Furthermore, to maintain the services supported by the whole IT ecosystem sustainably, the configuration of single systems that participate in the IT ecosystem also changes appropriately in accordance with the changed situation. In order to support the IT ecosystem, this paper proposes an architecture framework that supports dynamic configuration changes to achieve the goal of the whole IT ecosystem, while ensuring the autonomy of single systems through the collection of data from sensors so as to recognize the situational context of individual participating systems. For the feasibility evaluation of the proposed framework, a simulated example of an IT ecosystem for unmanned forest management was constructed, and the quantitative evaluation results are discussed in terms of the extent to which the proposed architecture framework can continuously provide sustainable services in response to diverse environmental context changes.

An Architecture Framework for Orchestrating Context-Aware IT Ecosystems: A Case Study for Quantitative Evaluation †

PubMed Central

Park, Young B.

2018-01-01

With the emergence of various forms of smart devices and new paradigms such as the Internet of Things (IoT) concept, the IT (Information Technology) service areas are expanding explosively compared to the provision of services by single systems. A new system operation concept that has emerged in accordance with such technical trends is the IT ecosystem. The IT ecosystem can be considered a special type of system of systems in which multiple systems with various degrees of autonomy achieve common goals while adapting to the given environment. The single systems that participate in the IT ecosystem adapt autonomously to the current situation based on collected data from sensors. Furthermore, to maintain the services supported by the whole IT ecosystem sustainably, the configuration of single systems that participate in the IT ecosystem also changes appropriately in accordance with the changed situation. In order to support the IT ecosystem, this paper proposes an architecture framework that supports dynamic configuration changes to achieve the goal of the whole IT ecosystem, while ensuring the autonomy of single systems through the collection of data from sensors so as to recognize the situational context of individual participating systems. For the feasibility evaluation of the proposed framework, a simulated example of an IT ecosystem for unmanned forest management was constructed, and the quantitative evaluation results are discussed in terms of the extent to which the proposed architecture framework can continuously provide sustainable services in response to diverse environmental context changes. PMID:29439540

Collaboration Across Worldviews: Managers and Scientists on Hawai'i Island Utilize Knowledge Coproduction to Facilitate Climate Change Adaptation.

PubMed

Laursen, Scott; Puniwai, Noelani; Genz, Ayesha S; Nash, Sarah A B; Canale, Lisa K; Ziegler-Chong, Sharon

2018-05-30

Complex socio-ecological issues, such as climate change have historically been addressed through technical problem solving methods. Yet today, climate science approaches are increasingly accounting for the roles of diverse social perceptions, experiences, cultural norms, and worldviews. In support of this shift, we developed a research program on Hawai'i Island that utilizes knowledge coproduction to integrate the diverse worldviews of natural and cultural resource managers, policy professionals, and researchers within actionable science products. Through their work, local field managers regularly experience discrete land and waterscapes. Additionally, in highly interconnected rural communities, such as Hawai'i Island, managers often participate in the social norms and values of communities that utilize these ecosystems. Such local manager networks offer powerful frameworks within which to co-develop and implement actionable science. We interviewed a diverse set of local managers with the aim of incorporating their perspectives into the development of a collaborative climate change research agenda that builds upon existing professional networks utilized by managers and scientists while developing new research products. We report our manager needs assessment, the development process of our climate change program, our interactive forums, and our ongoing research products. Our needs assessment showed that the managers' primary source of information were other professional colleagues, and our in-person forums informed us that local managers are very interested in interacting with a wider range of networks to build upon their management capacities. Our initial programmatic progress suggests that co-created research products and in-person forums strengthen the capacities of local managers to adapt to change.

Generating relevant climate adaptation science tools in concert with local natural resource agencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Micheli, L.; Flint, L. E.; Veloz, S.; Heller, N. E.

2015-12-01

To create a framework for adapting to climate change, decision makers operating at the urban-wildland interface need to define climate vulnerabilities in the context of site-specific opportunities and constraints relative to water supply, land use suitability, wildfire risks, ecosystem services and quality of life. Pepperwood's TBC3.org is crafting customized climate vulnerability assessments with selected water and natural resource agencies of California's Sonoma, Marin, Napa and Mendocino counties under the auspices of Climate Ready North Bay, a public-private partnership funded by the California Coastal Conservancy. Working directly with managers from the very start of the process to define resource-specific information needs, we are developing high-resolution, spatially-explicit data products to help local governments and agency staff implement informed and effective climate adaptation strategies. Key preliminary findings for the region using the USGS' Basin Characterization Model (at a 270 m spatial resolution) include a unidirectional trend, independent of greater or lesser precipitation, towards increasing climatic water deficits across model scenarios. Therefore a key message is that managers will be facing an increasingly arid environment. Companion models translate the impacts of shifting climate and hydrology on vegetation composition and fire risks. The combination of drought stress on water supplies and native vegetation with an approximate doubling of fire risks may demand new approaches to watershed planning. Working with agencies we are exploring how to build capacity for protection and enhancement of key watershed functions with a focus on groundwater recharge, facilitating greater drought tolerance in forest and rangeland systems, and considering more aggressive approaches to management of fuel loads. Lessons learned about effective engagement include the need for extended in-depth dialog, translation of key climate adaptation questions into deliverable metrics and indicators, and the need to take time to digest and formulate results in terms of adaptive management actions. Agencies also express a benefit in using Climate Ready results to raise public awareness of the resource challenges that may lay ahead.

Climate change adaptation among Tibetan pastoralists: challenges in enhancing local adaptation through policy support.

PubMed

Fu, Yao; Grumbine, R Edward; Wilkes, Andreas; Wang, Yun; Xu, Jian-Chu; Yang, Yong-Ping

2012-10-01

While researchers are aware that a mix of Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK), community-based resource management institutions, and higher-level institutions and policies can facilitate pastoralists' adaptation to climate change, policy makers have been slow to understand these linkages. Two critical issues are to what extent these factors play a role, and how to enhance local adaptation through government support. We investigated these issues through a case study of two pastoral communities on the Tibetan Plateau in China employing an analytical framework to understand local climate adaptation processes. We concluded that LEK and community-based institutions improve adaptation outcomes for Tibetan pastoralists through shaping and mobilizing resource availability to reduce risks. Higher-level institutions and policies contribute by providing resources from outside communities. There are dynamic interrelationships among these factors that can lead to support, conflict, and fragmentation. Government policy could enhance local adaptation through improvement of supportive relationships among these factors. While central government policies allow only limited room for overt integration of local knowledge/institutions, local governments often have some flexibility to buffer conflicts. In addition, government policies to support market-based economic development have greatly benefited adaptation outcomes for pastoralists. Overall, in China, there are still questions over how to create innovative institutions that blend LEK and community-based institutions with government policy making.

Implementing Culture Change in Nursing Homes: An Adaptive Leadership Framework

PubMed Central

Corazzini, Kirsten; Twersky, Jack; White, Heidi K.; Buhr, Gwendolen T.; McConnell, Eleanor S.; Weiner, Madeline; Colón-Emeric, Cathleen S.

2015-01-01

Purpose of the Study: To describe key adaptive challenges and leadership behaviors to implement culture change for person-directed care. Design and Methods: The study design was a qualitative, observational study of nursing home staff perceptions of the implementation of culture change in each of 3 nursing homes. We conducted 7 focus groups of licensed and unlicensed nursing staff, medical care providers, and administrators. Questions explored perceptions of facilitators and barriers to culture change. Using a template organizing style of analysis with immersion/crystallization, themes of barriers and facilitators were coded for adaptive challenges and leadership. Results: Six key themes emerged, including relationships, standards and expectations, motivation and vision, workload, respect of personhood, and physical environment. Within each theme, participants identified barriers that were adaptive challenges and facilitators that were examples of adaptive leadership. Commonly identified challenges were how to provide person-directed care in the context of extant rules or policies or how to develop staff motivated to provide person-directed care. Implications: Implementing culture change requires the recognition of adaptive challenges for which there are no technical solutions, but which require reframing of norms and expectations, and the development of novel and flexible solutions. Managers and administrators seeking to implement person-directed care will need to consider the role of adaptive leadership to address these adaptive challenges. PMID:24451896

Systematic exploration of efficient strategies to manage solid waste in U.S. municipalities: perspectives from the solid waste optimization life-cycle framework (SWOLF).

PubMed

Levis, James W; Barlaz, Morton A; Decarolis, Joseph F; Ranjithan, S Ranji

2014-04-01

Solid waste management (SWM) systems must proactively adapt to changing policy requirements, waste composition, and an evolving energy system to sustainably manage future solid waste. This study represents the first application of an optimizable dynamic life-cycle assessment framework capable of considering these future changes. The framework was used to draw insights by analyzing the SWM system of a hypothetical suburban U.S. city of 100 000 people over 30 years while considering changes to population, waste generation, and energy mix and costs. The SWM system included 3 waste generation sectors, 30 types of waste materials, and 9 processes for waste separation, treatment, and disposal. A business-as-usual scenario (BAU) was compared to three optimization scenarios that (1) minimized cost (Min Cost), (2) maximized diversion (Max Diversion), and (3) minimized greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Min GHG) from the system. The Min Cost scenario saved $7.2 million (12%) and reduced GHG emissions (3%) relative to the BAU scenario. Compared to the Max Diversion scenario, the Min GHG scenario cost approximately 27% less and more than doubled the net reduction in GHG emissions. The results illustrate how the timed-deployment of technologies in response to changes in waste composition and the energy system results in more efficient SWM system performance compared to what is possible from static analyses.

Informing climate-related decisions in complex river basins: A comparative assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.; Bark, R. H.; Maia, R.; Udall, B.

2010-12-01

Integrated water resources management provides an important governance framework to achieve climate-related adaptation measures across socio-economic, environmental and administrative systems. Adaptation includes technical changes that improve water use efficiency, early warning, demand management (e.g. through metering and pricing), and institutional changes that improve the tradability of water rights. Supply-side strategies generally involve increases in storage capacity, abstraction from watercourses, and water transfers. Incentives for improving water-use efficiency, hold considerable promise for water savings and the reallocation of water to highly valued uses. However, conflicts exist between processes and goals of water management and governance. These militate against the effectiveness of using scientific information to meet short-term needs in the context of reducing longer-term vulnerabilities such as for “increasing water supply while meeting environmental needs.” A complete analysis of the effects of climate change on human water uses would consider cross-sector interactions, including the impacts of transfers of the use of water from one sector to another. In this presentation we will review the challenges and lessons provided in water resources management in the context of a changing climate. Lessons are drawn from watersheds around the world including the Colorado, Columbia, Murray-Darling, Guadiana and others. We explore how watershed managers and researchers are attempting to address the risks associated with climatic change and potential surprises. In spite of numerous climate impacts studies the management of the cumulative impacts of extremes (droughts, floods etc.) remains reactive and crisis-driven. Most recommendations stay within the applied sciences realm of technological interventions and supply driven approaches. Clearly more is needed to inform an integrated watershed management approaches in which adaptive management functions as an operational tool for learning. The barriers to implementing adaptation measures include the inability of some natural systems to adapt at the rate of combined demographic pressures and climate, incomplete understanding and quantifying of water demands, and impediments to the flow of timely and reliable knowledge and information relevant for decision makers. Mechanisms to expand this range of choice include: Anticipatory coordination within development plans (e.g. adaptive management within integrated watershed and coastal zone plans). Developing usable climate risk management triggers for early warning of potential conflicts in agriculture, water, energy, health, environment , and coastal zones, including a mixed portfolio of past data and scenario-based approaches Developing and employing water efficient technologies. Actively engaging communities and states in mainstreaming climate information such as in the development of scenarios that link climate and development goals Future needs include exploration of alternate integration models and overlying policy structures that could, together, facilitate and sustain shared learning as climate varies and change

Using systems thinking to support clinical system transformation.

PubMed

Best, Allan; Berland, Alex; Herbert, Carol; Bitz, Jennifer; van Dijk, Marlies W; Krause, Christina; Cochrane, Douglas; Noel, Kevin; Marsden, Julian; McKeown, Shari; Millar, John

2016-05-16

Purpose - The British Columbia Ministry of Health's Clinical Care Management initiative was used as a case study to better understand large-scale change (LSC) within BC's health system. Using a complex system framework, the purpose of this paper is to examine mechanisms that enable and constrain the implementation of clinical guidelines across various clinical settings. Design/methodology/approach - Researchers applied a general model of complex adaptive systems plus two specific conceptual frameworks (realist evaluation and system dynamics mapping) to define and study enablers and constraints. Focus group sessions and interviews with clinicians, executives, managers and board members were validated through an online survey. Findings - The functional themes for managing large-scale clinical change included: creating a context to prepare clinicians for health system transformation initiatives; promoting shared clinical leadership; strengthening knowledge management, strategic communications and opportunities for networking; and clearing pathways through the complexity of a multilevel, dynamic system. Research limitations/implications - The action research methodology was designed to guide continuing improvement of implementation. A sample of initiatives was selected; it was not intended to compare and contrast facilitators and barriers across all initiatives and regions. Similarly, evaluating the results or process of guideline implementation was outside the scope; the methods were designed to enable conversations at multiple levels - policy, management and practice - about how to improve implementation. The study is best seen as a case study of LSC, offering a possible model for replication by others and a tool to shape further dialogue. Practical implications - Recommended action-oriented strategies included engaging local champions; supporting local adaptation for implementation of clinical guidelines; strengthening local teams to guide implementation; reducing change fatigue; ensuring adequate resources; providing consistent communication especially for front-line care providers; and supporting local teams to demonstrate the clinical value of the guidelines to their colleagues. Originality/value - Bringing a complex systems perspective to clinical guideline implementation resulted in a clear understanding of the challenges involved in LSC.

Design of Adaptive Policy Pathways under Deep Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babovic, Vladan

2013-04-01

The design of large-scale engineering and infrastructural systems today is growing in complexity. Designers need to consider sociotechnical uncertainties, intricacies, and processes in the long- term strategic deployment and operations of these systems. In this context, water and spatial management is increasingly challenged not only by climate-associated changes such as sea level rise and increased spatio-temporal variability of precipitation, but also by pressures due to population growth and particularly accelerating rate of urbanisation. Furthermore, high investment costs and long term-nature of water-related infrastructure projects requires long-term planning perspective, sometimes extending over many decades. Adaptation to such changes is not only determined by what is known or anticipated at present, but also by what will be experienced and learned as the future unfolds, as well as by policy responses to social and water events. As a result, a pathway emerges. Instead of responding to 'surprises' and making decisions on ad hoc basis, exploring adaptation pathways into the future provide indispensable support in water management decision-making. In this contribution, a structured approach for designing a dynamic adaptive policy based on the concepts of adaptive policy making and adaptation pathways is introduced. Such an approach provides flexibility which allows change over time in response to how the future unfolds, what is learned about the system, and changes in societal preferences. The introduced flexibility provides means for dealing with complexities of adaptation under deep uncertainties. It enables engineering systems to change in the face of uncertainty to reduce impacts from downside scenarios while capitalizing on upside opportunities. This contribution presents comprehensive framework for development and deployment of adaptive policy pathway framework, and demonstrates its performance under deep uncertainties on a case study related to urban water catchment in Singapore. Ingredients of this approach are: (a) transient scenarios (time series of various uncertain developments such as climate change, economic developments, societal changes), (b) a methodology for exploring many options and sequences of these options across different futures, and (c) a stepwise policy analysis. The strategy is applied on case of flexible deployment of novel, so-called Next Generation Infrastructure, and assessed in context of the proposed. Results of the study show that flexible design alternatives deliver much enhanced performance compared to systems optimized under deterministic forecasts of the future. The work also demonstrates that explicit incorporation of uncertainty and flexibility into decision-making process reduces capital expenditures while allowing decision makers to learn about system evolution throughout the lifetime of the project.

Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.

2012-04-01

An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows are usually only suited for rigid processes. We show how improvements can be achieved by using decision tables and rule-based adaptive workflows. Decision tables have been shown to be an intuitive tool that can be used by domain experts to express rule sets that can be interpreted automatically at runtime. Adaptive workflows use a rule-based approach to increase the flexibility of workflows by providing mechanisms to adapt workflows based on context changes, human intervention and availability of services. The combination of workflows, decision tables and rule-based adaption creates a framework that opens up new possibilities for flexible and adaptable workflows, especially, for use in early warning and crisis management systems.

Integrating modeling, monitoring, and management to reduce critical uncertainties in water resource decision making.

PubMed

Peterson, James T; Freeman, Mary C

2016-12-01

Stream ecosystems provide multiple, valued services to society, including water supply, waste assimilation, recreation, and habitat for diverse and productive biological communities. Managers striving to sustain these services in the face of changing climate, land uses, and water demands need tools to assess the potential effectiveness of alternative management actions, and often, the resulting tradeoffs between competing objectives. Integrating predictive modeling with monitoring data in an adaptive management framework provides a process by which managers can reduce model uncertainties and thus improve the scientific bases for subsequent decisions. We demonstrate an integration of monitoring data with a dynamic, metapopulation model developed to assess effects of streamflow alteration on fish occupancy in a southeastern US stream system. Although not extensive (collected over three years at nine sites), the monitoring data allowed us to assess and update support for alternative population dynamic models using model probabilities and Bayes rule. We then use the updated model weights to estimate the effects of water withdrawal on stream fish communities and demonstrate how feedback in the form of monitoring data can be used to improve water resource decision making. We conclude that investment in more strategic monitoring, guided by a priori model predictions under alternative hypotheses and an adaptive sampling design, could substantially improve the information available to guide decision-making and management for ecosystem services from lotic systems. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Tatool: a Java-based open-source programming framework for psychological studies.

PubMed

von Bastian, Claudia C; Locher, André; Ruflin, Michael

2013-03-01

Tatool (Training and Testing Tool) was developed to assist researchers with programming training software, experiments, and questionnaires. Tatool is Java-based, and thus is a platform-independent and object-oriented framework. The architecture was designed to meet the requirements of experimental designs and provides a large number of predefined functions that are useful in psychological studies. Tatool comprises features crucial for training studies (e.g., configurable training schedules, adaptive training algorithms, and individual training statistics) and allows for running studies online via Java Web Start. The accompanying "Tatool Online" platform provides the possibility to manage studies and participants' data easily with a Web-based interface. Tatool is published open source under the GNU Lesser General Public License, and is available at www.tatool.ch.

ActiveTutor: Towards More Adaptive Features in an E-Learning Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fournier, Jean-Pierre; Sansonnet, Jean-Paul

2008-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to sketch the emerging notion of auto-adaptive software when applied to e-learning software. Design/methodology/approach: The study and the implementation of the auto-adaptive architecture are based on the operational framework "ActiveTutor" that is used for teaching the topic of computer science programming in first-grade…

Ecosystem and Food Security in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, C. B.

2011-12-01

Observed and projected impacts of climate change for ecosystem and food security tend to appear as changes in the risk of both desirable and undesirable outcomes. As a consequence, it is useful to frame the challenge of adaptation to a changing climate as a problem in risk management. For some kinds of impacts, the risks are relatively well characterized. For others, they are poorly known. Especially for the cases where the risks are poorly known, effective adaptation will need to consider approaches that build dynamic portfolios of options, based on learning from experience. Effective adaptation approaches also need to consider the risks of threshold-type responses, where opportunities for gradual adaptation based on learning may be limited. Finally, effective adaptation should build on the understanding that negative impacts on ecosystems and food security often result from extreme events, where a link to climate change may be unclear now and far into the future. Ecosystem and food security impacts that potentially require adaptation to a changing climate vary from region to region and interact strongly with actions not related to climate. In many ecosystems, climate change shifts the risk profile to increase risks of wildfire and biological invasions. Higher order risks from factors like pests and pathogens remain difficult to quantify. For food security, observational evidence highlights threshold-like behavior to high temperature in yields of a number of crops. But the risks to food security may be much broader, encompassing risks to availability of irrigation, degradation of topsoil, and challenges of storage and distribution. A risk management approach facilitates consideration of all these challenges with a unified framework.

Experimenting Design and Implementation of an Educational Services Management System Based on ISO/IEC 20000 Standard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lezcano, Jean-Marc; Adachihara, Hatsuo; Prunier, Marc

European higher education organizations are encouraged to implement quality management practices. Existing quality standards and frameworks do not capitalize an important set of best practices addressing educational services delivery. The ISO/IEC 20000 standard, elaborated from IT service management issues, is widening its field of application and may represent an interesting alternative. A specific approach is needed to apprehend the particular nature of educational services, consider the systemic cooperating roles of educational system and learning system, and define ISO/IEC 20000 vocabulary and concepts adapted to the domain. ISO/IEC 20000 may provide an answer to European Standard Guideline compliance and improve educational services management. The current experimentation is expected to cast light on the complexity, practicality and effectiveness of the use of ISO/IEC 20000 in a first field of "non IT" services.

Policy tree optimization for adaptive management of water resources systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, Jonathan; Giuliani, Matteo

2017-04-01

Water resources systems must cope with irreducible uncertainty in supply and demand, requiring policy alternatives capable of adapting to a range of possible future scenarios. Recent studies have developed adaptive policies based on "signposts" or "tipping points" that suggest the need of updating the policy. However, there remains a need for a general method to optimize the choice of the signposts to be used and their threshold values. This work contributes a general framework and computational algorithm to design adaptive policies as a tree structure (i.e., a hierarchical set of logical rules) using a simulation-optimization approach based on genetic programming. Given a set of feature variables (e.g., reservoir level, inflow observations, inflow forecasts), the resulting policy defines both the optimal reservoir operations and the conditions under which such operations should be triggered. We demonstrate the approach using Folsom Reservoir (California) as a case study, in which operating policies must balance the risk of both floods and droughts. Numerical results show that the tree-based policies outperform the ones designed via Dynamic Programming. In addition, they display good adaptive capacity to the changing climate, successfully adapting the reservoir operations across a large set of uncertain climate scenarios.

Rice Production Vulnerability to Climate Change in Indonesia: An Overview on Community-based Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komaladara, A. A. S. P.; Budiasa, I. W.; Ambarawati, I. G. A. A.

2015-12-01

Rice remains to be a major crop and staple food in Indonesia. The task to ensure that rice production meets the demand of a growing population continues to engage the attention of national planners and policy makers. However, the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture production have presented Indonesia with yet another significant challenge. The exposure of rice crops to climate-related hazards such as temperature stress, floods, and drought, may lead to lower yield and self-sufficiency rate. This study explores the vulnerability of rice production to the effects of climate change in Indonesia. Considering the vast geographical span of the country and varying exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to climate change at regional level, this study emphasize the importance of community-based adaptation. Results from a simulation based on production and climate data from 1984 to 2014 indicates that rice production is sensitive to variation in growing season temperature and precipitation. A projection of these climate factors in 2050 has a significant impact on the major rice crop. To manage the impact of climate change, this study turns to the potential roles of farmer organizations, such as Subak, in adaptation strategies. The Subak in Bali is recognized for its cultural and organizational framework that highlights the sharing of knowledge and local wisdom in rice production. This is demonstrated by its efficient community-based irrigation management system, leading to sustainable rice production. Keywords: rice production, climate change, community-based adaptation, Indonesia

Assessing Continuous Quality Improvement in Public Health: Adapting Lessons from Healthcare.

PubMed

Price, Alex; Schwartz, Robert; Cohen, Joanna; Manson, Heather; Scott, Fran

2017-02-01

Evidence of the effect of continuous quality improvement (CQI) in public health and valid tools to judge that such effects are not fully formed. The objective was to adapt and apply Shortell et al.'s (1998) four dimensions of CQI in an examination of a public health accountability and performance management initiative in Ontario, Canada. In total, 24 semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with informants from public health units and the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care. A web survey of public health managers in the province was also carried out. A mix of facilitators and barriers was identified. Leadership and organizational cultures, conducive to CQI success were evident. However, limitations in performance measurement and managerial discretion were key barriers. The four dimensions of CQI provided insight into both facilitators and barriers of CQI adoption in public health. Future research should compare the outcomes of public health CQI initiatives to the framework's stated facilitators and barriers. Copyright © 2017 Longwoods Publishing.

A Ubiquitous NFC Solution for the Development of Tailored Marketing Strategies Based on Discount Vouchers and Loyalty Cards

PubMed Central

Borrego-Jaraba, Francisco; Garrido, Pilar Castro; García, Gonzalo Cerruela; Ruiz, Irene Luque; Gómez-Nieto, Miguel Ángel

2013-01-01

Because of the global economic turmoil, nowadays a lot of companies are adopting a “deal of the day” business model, some of them with great success. Generally, they try to attract and retain customers through discount coupons and gift cards, using, generally, traditional distribution media. This paper describes a framework, which integrates intelligent environments by using NFC, oriented to the full management of this kind of businesses. The system is responsible for diffusion, distribution, sourcing, validation, redemption and managing of vouchers, loyalty cards and all kind of mobile coupons using NFC, as well as QR codes. WingBonus can be fully adapted to the requirements of marketing campaigns, voucher providers, shop or retailer infrastructures and mobile devices and purchasing habits. Security of the voucher is granted by the system by synchronizing procedures using secure encriptation algorithms. The WingBonus website and mobile applications can be adapted to any requirement of the system actors. PMID:23673675

A ubiquitous NFC solution for the development of tailored marketing strategies based on discount vouchers and loyalty cards.

PubMed

Borrego-Jaraba, Francisco; Garrido, Pilar Castro; García, Gonzalo Cerruela; Ruiz, Irene Luque; Gómez-Nieto, Miguel Angel

2013-05-14

Because of the global economic turmoil, nowadays a lot of companies are adopting a "deal of the day" business model, some of them with great success. Generally, they try to attract and retain customers through discount coupons and gift cards, using, generally, traditional distribution media. This paper describes a framework, which integrates intelligent environments by using NFC, oriented to the full management of this kind of businesses. The system is responsible for diffusion, distribution, sourcing, validation, redemption and managing of vouchers, loyalty cards and all kind of mobile coupons using NFC, as well as QR codes. WingBonus can be fully adapted to the requirements of marketing campaigns, voucher providers, shop or retailer infrastructures and mobile devices and purchasing habits. Security of the voucher is granted by the system by synchronizing procedures using secure encriptation algorithms. The WingBonus website and mobile applications can be adapted to any requirement of the system actors.

Assessing Continuous Quality Improvement in Public Health: Adapting Lessons from Healthcare

PubMed Central

Schwartz, Robert; Cohen, Joanna; Manson, Heather; Scott, Fran

2017-01-01

Context: Evidence of the effect of continuous quality improvement (CQI) in public health and valid tools to judge that such effects are not fully formed. Objective: The objective was to adapt and apply Shortell et al.'s (1998) four dimensions of CQI in an examination of a public health accountability and performance management initiative in Ontario, Canada. Methods: In total, 24 semi-structured, in-depth interviews were conducted with informants from public health units and the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care. A web survey of public health managers in the province was also carried out. Results: A mix of facilitators and barriers was identified. Leadership and organizational cultures, conducive to CQI success were evident. However, limitations in performance measurement and managerial discretion were key barriers. Conclusion: The four dimensions of CQI provided insight into both facilitators and barriers of CQI adoption in public health. Future research should compare the outcomes of public health CQI initiatives to the framework's stated facilitators and barriers. PMID:28277203

The Colorado Climate Preparedness Project: A Systematic Approach to Assessing Efforts Supporting State-Level Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, R.; Gordon, E.

2010-12-01

Scholars and policy analysts often contend that an effective climate adaptation strategy must entail "mainstreaming," or incorporating responses to possible climate impacts into existing planning and management decision frameworks. Such an approach, however, makes it difficult to assess the degree to which decisionmaking entities are engaging in adaptive activities that may or may not be explicitly framed around a changing climate. For example, a drought management plan may not explicitly address climate change, but the activities and strategies outlined in it may reduce vulnerabilities posed by a variable and changing climate. Consequently, to generate a strategic climate adaptation plan requires identifying the entire suite of activities that are implicitly linked to climate and may affect adaptive capacity within the system. Here we outline a novel, two-pronged approach, leveraging social science methods, to understanding adaptation throughout state government in Colorado. First, we conducted a series of interviews with key actors in state and federal government agencies, non-governmental organizations, universities, and other entities engaged in state issues. The purpose of these interviews was to elicit information about current activities that may affect the state’s adaptive capacity and to identify future climate-related needs across the state. Second, we have developed an interactive database cataloging organizations, products, projects, and people actively engaged in adaptive planning and policymaking that are relevant to the state of Colorado. The database includes a wiki interface, helping create a dynamic component that will enable frequent updating as climate-relevant information emerges. The results of this project are intended to paint a clear picture of sectors and agencies with higher and lower levels of adaptation awareness and to provide a roadmap for the next gubernatorial administration to pursue a more sophisticated climate adaptation agenda. Project results can also inform numerous other ongoing database efforts connected to the U.S. National Assessment of Climate Change.

Complex adaptive systems: concept analysis.

PubMed

Holden, Lela M

2005-12-01

The aim of this paper is to explicate the concept of complex adaptive systems through an analysis that provides a description, antecedents, consequences, and a model case from the nursing and health care literature. Life is more than atoms and molecules--it is patterns of organization. Complexity science is the latest generation of systems thinking that investigates patterns and has emerged from the exploration of the subatomic world and quantum physics. A key component of complexity science is the concept of complex adaptive systems, and active research is found in many disciplines--from biology to economics to health care. However, the research and literature related to these appealing topics have generated confusion. A thorough explication of complex adaptive systems is needed. A modified application of the methods recommended by Walker and Avant for concept analysis was used. A complex adaptive system is a collection of individual agents with freedom to act in ways that are not always totally predictable and whose actions are interconnected. Examples include a colony of termites, the financial market, and a surgical team. It is often referred to as chaos theory, but the two are not the same. Chaos theory is actually a subset of complexity science. Complexity science offers a powerful new approach--beyond merely looking at clinical processes and the skills of healthcare professionals. The use of complex adaptive systems as a framework is increasing for a wide range of scientific applications, including nursing and healthcare management research. When nursing and other healthcare managers focus on increasing connections, diversity, and interactions they increase information flow and promote creative adaptation referred to as self-organization. Complexity science builds on the rich tradition in nursing that views patients and nursing care from a systems perspective.

Reducing predation by common ravens on desert tortoises in the Mojave and Colorado Deserts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boarman, William I.

2002-01-01

intended to provide a basis for a long-term reduction in raven impacts. The recommendations fall into four basic categories. (1) Modify anthropogenic sources of food, water, and nesting substrates to reduce their use by ravens. This includes modifying landfill operations, septage containment practices, livestock management, and other commercial and private practices that help facilitate raven survival and dispersal by providing food and water. Most of these measures are long-term actions deigned to reduce the carrying capacity of the desert for ravens. This action is critical and must be done over very large areas. (2)Lethal removal of ravens by shooting or euthanizing following live trapping. Specific ravens known to prey on tortoises would be targeted as well as all ravens found foraging within specific high-priority desert tortoise management zones (e.g., Desert Tortoise Natural Areas, DTNA). These actions would primarily be deployed on a short-term emergency basis to give specific tortoise populations a necessary boost until other measures become fully implemented and achieve their goals. (3) Conduct research on raven ecology, raven behavior, and methods to reduce raven predation on tortoises. Results of these studies would be used to design future phases of the raven management program. (4) All actions should be approached within an adaptive management framework. As such monitor, actions should be designed as experiments so that monitoring of actions will yield reliable and scientifically sound results. Coordinating and oversight teams should be convened to facilitate cooperation and coordination among agencies and to ensure that the actions are being implemented effectively. Recommendations made herein were developed to help recover tortoise populations by reducing raven predation on juvenile tortoises. If the recommendations made are implemented in concert with actions reducing other causes of mortality, ill health, and lowered reproductive output, they should aid in the long-term recovery of desert tortoise populations. Many important aspects of raven population dynamics, raven predation on tortoises, and how to manage raven populations and behavior are as yet unknown. Because of this, any raven management program must be implemented within an adaptive management framework. Doing so would allow for sufficient flexibility to modify the program as new information is gained.

Adaptive livelihood strategies for coping with water scarcity in the drylands of central Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liwenga, Emma T.

In this paper, it is argued that local knowledge for adapting to water scarcity is important for integrated resource management by taking into consideration both the natural and social constraints in a particular setting based on accumulated experience. The paper examines the relevance of local knowledge in sustaining agricultural production in the semiarid areas of central Tanzania. The paper specifically focuses on how water scarcity, as the major limiting factor, is addressed in the study area using local knowledge to sustain livelihoods of its people. The study was conducted in four villages; Mzula, Ilolo, Chanhumba and Ngahelezi, situation in Mvumi Division in Dodoma Region. The study mainly employed qualitative data collection techniques. Participatory methods provided a means of exploring perceptions and gaining deeper insights regarding natural resource utilization in terms of problems and opportunities. The main data sources drawn upon in this study were documentation, group interviews and field observations. Group interviews involved discussions with a group of 6-12 people selected on the basis of gender, age and socio-economic groups. Data analysis entailed structural and content analysis within the adaptive livelihood framework in relation to management of water scarcity using local knowledge. The findings confirm that rainfall is the main limiting factor for agricultural activities in the drylands of Central Tanzania. As such, local communities have developed, through time, indigenous knowledge to cope with such environments utilizing seasonality and diversity of landscapes. Use of this local knowledge is therefore effective in managing water scarcity by ensuring a continuous production of crops throughout the year. This practice implies increased food availability and accessibility through sales of such agricultural products. Local innovations for water management, such as cultivation in sandy rivers, appear to be very important means of accessing water in these dryland areas. It can therefore be concluded that utilization of local knowledge has wide impact on integrated water resource management. These implications are important considerations for development of adaptive water system innovations at community level.