NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Akdemir, Bayram; Doǧan, Sercan; Aksoy, Muharrem H.; Canli, Eyüp; Özgören, Muammer
2015-03-01
Liquid behaviors are very important for many areas especially for Mechanical Engineering. Fast camera is a way to observe and search the liquid behaviors. Camera traces the dust or colored markers travelling in the liquid and takes many pictures in a second as possible as. Every image has large data structure due to resolution. For fast liquid velocity, there is not easy to evaluate or make a fluent frame after the taken images. Artificial intelligence has much popularity in science to solve the nonlinear problems. Adaptive neural fuzzy inference system is a common artificial intelligence in literature. Any particle velocity in a liquid has two dimension speed and its derivatives. Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System has been used to create an artificial frame between previous and post frames as offline. Adaptive neural fuzzy inference system uses velocities and vorticities to create a crossing point vector between previous and post points. In this study, Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System has been used to fill virtual frames among the real frames in order to improve image continuity. So this evaluation makes the images much understandable at chaotic or vorticity points. After executed adaptive neural fuzzy inference system, the image dataset increase two times and has a sequence as virtual and real, respectively. The obtained success is evaluated using R2 testing and mean squared error. R2 testing has a statistical importance about similarity and 0.82, 0.81, 0.85 and 0.8 were obtained for velocities and derivatives, respectively.
San, Phyo Phyo; Ling, Sai Ho; Nguyen, Hung T
2012-01-01
Hypoglycemia, or low blood glucose, is the most common complication experienced by Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients. It is dangerous and can result in unconsciousness, seizures and even death. The most common physiological parameter to be effected from hypoglycemic reaction are heart rate (HR) and correct QT interval (QTc) of the electrocardiogram (ECG) signal. Based on physiological parameters, an intelligent diagnostics system, using the hybrid approach of adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), is developed to recognize the presence of hypoglycemia. The proposed ANFIS is characterized by adaptive neural network capabilities and the fuzzy inference system. To optimize the membership functions and adaptive network parameters, a global learning optimization algorithm called hybrid particle swarm optimization with wavelet mutation (HPSOWM) is used. For clinical study, 15 children with Type 1 diabetes volunteered for an overnight study. All the real data sets are collected from the Department of Health, Government of Western Australia. Several experiments were conducted with 5 patients each, for a training set (184 data points), a validation set (192 data points) and a testing set (153 data points), which are randomly selected. The effectiveness of the proposed detection method is found to be satisfactory by giving better sensitivity, 79.09% and acceptable specificity, 51.82%. PMID:23367375
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tien Bui, Dieu; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Nampak, Haleh; Bui, Quang-Thanh; Tran, Quynh-An; Nguyen, Quoc-Phi
2016-09-01
This paper proposes a new artificial intelligence approach based on neural fuzzy inference system and metaheuristic optimization for flood susceptibility modeling, namely MONF. In the new approach, the neural fuzzy inference system was used to create an initial flood susceptibility model and then the model was optimized using two metaheuristic algorithms, Evolutionary Genetic and Particle Swarm Optimization. A high-frequency tropical cyclone area of the Tuong Duong district in Central Vietnam was used as a case study. First, a GIS database for the study area was constructed. The database that includes 76 historical flood inundated areas and ten flood influencing factors was used to develop and validate the proposed model. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to assess the model performance and its prediction capability. Experimental results showed that the proposed model has high performance on both the training (RMSE = 0.306, MAE = 0.094, AUC = 0.962) and validation dataset (RMSE = 0.362, MAE = 0.130, AUC = 0.911). The usability of the proposed model was evaluated by comparing with those obtained from state-of-the art benchmark soft computing techniques such as J48 Decision Tree, Random Forest, Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network, Support Vector Machine, and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System. The results show that the proposed MONF model outperforms the above benchmark models; we conclude that the MONF model is a new alternative tool that should be used in flood susceptibility mapping. The result in this study is useful for planners and decision makers for sustainable management of flood-prone areas.
Kwong, C K; Fung, K Y; Jiang, Huimin; Chan, K Y; Siu, Kin Wai Michael
2013-01-01
Affective design is an important aspect of product development to achieve a competitive edge in the marketplace. A neural-fuzzy network approach has been attempted recently to model customer satisfaction for affective design and it has been proved to be an effective one to deal with the fuzziness and non-linearity of the modeling as well as generate explicit customer satisfaction models. However, such an approach to modeling customer satisfaction has two limitations. First, it is not suitable for the modeling problems which involve a large number of inputs. Second, it cannot adapt to new data sets, given that its structure is fixed once it has been developed. In this paper, a modified dynamic evolving neural-fuzzy approach is proposed to address the above mentioned limitations. A case study on the affective design of mobile phones was conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. Validation tests were conducted and the test results indicated that: (1) the conventional Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) failed to run due to a large number of inputs; (2) the proposed dynamic neural-fuzzy model outperforms the subtractive clustering-based ANFIS model and fuzzy c-means clustering-based ANFIS model in terms of their modeling accuracy and computational effort. PMID:24385884
Kwong, C. K.; Fung, K. Y.; Jiang, Huimin; Chan, K. Y.
2013-01-01
Affective design is an important aspect of product development to achieve a competitive edge in the marketplace. A neural-fuzzy network approach has been attempted recently to model customer satisfaction for affective design and it has been proved to be an effective one to deal with the fuzziness and non-linearity of the modeling as well as generate explicit customer satisfaction models. However, such an approach to modeling customer satisfaction has two limitations. First, it is not suitable for the modeling problems which involve a large number of inputs. Second, it cannot adapt to new data sets, given that its structure is fixed once it has been developed. In this paper, a modified dynamic evolving neural-fuzzy approach is proposed to address the above mentioned limitations. A case study on the affective design of mobile phones was conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. Validation tests were conducted and the test results indicated that: (1) the conventional Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) failed to run due to a large number of inputs; (2) the proposed dynamic neural-fuzzy model outperforms the subtractive clustering-based ANFIS model and fuzzy c-means clustering-based ANFIS model in terms of their modeling accuracy and computational effort. PMID:24385884
Neural fuzzy modeling of anaerobic biological wastewater treatment systems
Tay, J.H.; Zhang, X.
1999-12-01
Anaerobic biological wastewater treatment systems are difficult to model because their performance is complex and varies significantly with different reactor configurations, influent characteristics, and operational conditions. Instead of conventional kinetic modeling, advanced neural fuzzy technology was employed to develop a conceptual adaptive model for anaerobic treatment systems. The conceptual neural fuzzy model contains the robustness of fuzzy systems, the learning ability of neural networks, and can adapt to various situations. The conceptual model was used to simulate the daily performance of two high-rate anaerobic wastewater treatment systems with satisfactory results obtained.
A spatial neural fuzzy network for estimating pan evaporation at ungauged sites
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chung, C.-H.; Chiang, Y.-M.; Chang, F.-J.
2011-11-01
Evaporation is an essential reference to the management of water resources. In this study, a hybrid model that integrates a spatial neural fuzzy network with the kringing method is developed to estimate pan evaporation at ungauged sites. The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) can extract the nonlinear relationship of observations, while kriging is an excellent geostatistical interpolator. Three-year daily data collected from nineteen meteorological stations covering the whole of Taiwan are used to train and test the constructed model. The pan evaporation (Epan) at ungauged sites can be obtained through summing up the outputs of the spatially weighted ANFIS and the residuals adjusted by kriging. Results indicate that the proposed AK model (hybriding ANFIS and kriging) can effectively improve the accuracy of Epan estimation as compared with that of empirical formula. This hybrid model demonstrates its reliability in estimating the spatial distribution of Epan and consequently provides precise Epan estimation by taking geographical features into consideration.
A spatial neural fuzzy network for estimating pan evaporation at ungauged sites
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chung, C.-H.; Chiang, Y.-M.; Chang, F.-J.
2012-01-01
Evaporation is an essential reference to the management of water resources. In this study, a hybrid model that integrates a spatial neural fuzzy network with the kringing method is developed to estimate pan evaporation at ungauged sites. The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) can extract the nonlinear relationship of observations, while kriging is an excellent geostatistical interpolator. Three-year daily data collected from nineteen meteorological stations covering the whole of Taiwan are used to train and test the constructed model. The pan evaporation (Epan) at ungauged sites can be obtained through summing up the outputs of the spatially weighted ANFIS and the residuals adjusted by kriging. Results indicate that the proposed AK model (hybriding ANFIS and kriging) can effectively improve the accuracy of Epan estimation as compared with that of empirical formula. This hybrid model demonstrates its reliability in estimating the spatial distribution of Epan and consequently provides precise Epan estimation by taking geographical features into consideration.
Automated adaptive inference of phenomenological dynamical models
Daniels, Bryan C.; Nemenman, Ilya
2015-01-01
Dynamics of complex systems is often driven by large and intricate networks of microscopic interactions, whose sheer size obfuscates understanding. With limited experimental data, many parameters of such dynamics are unknown, and thus detailed, mechanistic models risk overfitting and making faulty predictions. At the other extreme, simple ad hoc models often miss defining features of the underlying systems. Here we develop an approach that instead constructs phenomenological, coarse-grained models of network dynamics that automatically adapt their complexity to the available data. Such adaptive models produce accurate predictions even when microscopic details are unknown. The approach is computationally tractable, even for a relatively large number of dynamical variables. Using simulated data, it correctly infers the phase space structure for planetary motion, avoids overfitting in a biological signalling system and produces accurate predictions for yeast glycolysis with tens of data points and over half of the interacting species unobserved. PMID:26293508
Automated adaptive inference of phenomenological dynamical models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Daniels, Bryan C.; Nemenman, Ilya
2015-08-01
Dynamics of complex systems is often driven by large and intricate networks of microscopic interactions, whose sheer size obfuscates understanding. With limited experimental data, many parameters of such dynamics are unknown, and thus detailed, mechanistic models risk overfitting and making faulty predictions. At the other extreme, simple ad hoc models often miss defining features of the underlying systems. Here we develop an approach that instead constructs phenomenological, coarse-grained models of network dynamics that automatically adapt their complexity to the available data. Such adaptive models produce accurate predictions even when microscopic details are unknown. The approach is computationally tractable, even for a relatively large number of dynamical variables. Using simulated data, it correctly infers the phase space structure for planetary motion, avoids overfitting in a biological signalling system and produces accurate predictions for yeast glycolysis with tens of data points and over half of the interacting species unobserved.
eFSM--a novel online neural-fuzzy semantic memory model.
Tung, Whye Loon; Quek, Chai
2010-01-01
Fuzzy rule-based systems (FRBSs) have been successfully applied to many areas. However, traditional fuzzy systems are often manually crafted, and their rule bases that represent the acquired knowledge are static and cannot be trained to improve the modeling performance. This subsequently leads to intensive research on the autonomous construction and tuning of a fuzzy system directly from the observed training data to address the knowledge acquisition bottleneck, resulting in well-established hybrids such as neural-fuzzy systems (NFSs) and genetic fuzzy systems (GFSs). However, the complex and dynamic nature of real-world problems demands that fuzzy rule-based systems and models be able to adapt their parameters and ultimately evolve their rule bases to address the nonstationary (time-varying) characteristics of their operating environments. Recently, considerable research efforts have been directed to the study of evolving Tagaki-Sugeno (T-S)-type NFSs based on the concept of incremental learning. In contrast, there are very few incremental learning Mamdani-type NFSs reported in the literature. Hence, this paper presents the evolving neural-fuzzy semantic memory (eFSM) model, a neural-fuzzy Mamdani architecture with a data-driven progressively adaptive structure (i.e., rule base) based on incremental learning. Issues related to the incremental learning of the eFSM rule base are carefully investigated, and a novel parameter learning approach is proposed for the tuning of the fuzzy set parameters in eFSM. The proposed eFSM model elicits highly interpretable semantic knowledge in the form of Mamdani-type if-then fuzzy rules from low-level numeric training data. These Mamdani fuzzy rules define the computing structure of eFSM and are incrementally learned with the arrival of each training data sample. New rules are constructed from the emergence of novel training data and obsolete fuzzy rules that no longer describe the recently observed data trends are pruned. This
Active Inference, homeostatic regulation and adaptive behavioural control
Pezzulo, Giovanni; Rigoli, Francesco; Friston, Karl
2015-01-01
We review a theory of homeostatic regulation and adaptive behavioural control within the Active Inference framework. Our aim is to connect two research streams that are usually considered independently; namely, Active Inference and associative learning theories of animal behaviour. The former uses a probabilistic (Bayesian) formulation of perception and action, while the latter calls on multiple (Pavlovian, habitual, goal-directed) processes for homeostatic and behavioural control. We offer a synthesis these classical processes and cast them as successive hierarchical contextualisations of sensorimotor constructs, using the generative models that underpin Active Inference. This dissolves any apparent mechanistic distinction between the optimization processes that mediate classical control or learning. Furthermore, we generalize the scope of Active Inference by emphasizing interoceptive inference and homeostatic regulation. The ensuing homeostatic (or allostatic) perspective provides an intuitive explanation for how priors act as drives or goals to enslave action, and emphasises the embodied nature of inference. PMID:26365173
Active Inference, homeostatic regulation and adaptive behavioural control.
Pezzulo, Giovanni; Rigoli, Francesco; Friston, Karl
2015-11-01
We review a theory of homeostatic regulation and adaptive behavioural control within the Active Inference framework. Our aim is to connect two research streams that are usually considered independently; namely, Active Inference and associative learning theories of animal behaviour. The former uses a probabilistic (Bayesian) formulation of perception and action, while the latter calls on multiple (Pavlovian, habitual, goal-directed) processes for homeostatic and behavioural control. We offer a synthesis these classical processes and cast them as successive hierarchical contextualisations of sensorimotor constructs, using the generative models that underpin Active Inference. This dissolves any apparent mechanistic distinction between the optimization processes that mediate classical control or learning. Furthermore, we generalize the scope of Active Inference by emphasizing interoceptive inference and homeostatic regulation. The ensuing homeostatic (or allostatic) perspective provides an intuitive explanation for how priors act as drives or goals to enslave action, and emphasises the embodied nature of inference. PMID:26365173
SVR versus neural-fuzzy network controllers for the sagittal balance of a biped robot.
Ferreira, João P; Crisóstomo, Manuel M; Coimbra, A Paulo
2009-12-01
The real-time balance control of an eight-link biped robot using a zero moment point (ZMP) dynamic model is difficult due to the processing time of the corresponding equations. To overcome this limitation, two alternative intelligent computing control techniques were compared: one based on support vector regression (SVR) and another based on a first-order Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK)-type neural-fuzzy (NF) network. Both methods use the ZMP error and its variation as inputs and the output is the correction of the robot's torso necessary for its sagittal balance. The SVR and the NF were trained based on simulation data and their performance was verified with a real biped robot. Two performance indexes are proposed to evaluate and compare the online performance of the two control methods. The ZMP is calculated by reading four force sensors placed under each robot's foot. The gait implemented in this biped is similar to a human gait that was acquired and adapted to the robot's size. Some experiments are presented and the results show that the implemented gait combined either with the SVR controller or with the TSK NF network controller can be used to control this biped robot. The SVR and the NF controllers exhibit similar stability, but the SVR controller runs about 50 times faster. PMID:19840908
Adaptive inference for distinguishing credible from incredible patterns in nature
Holling, Crawford S.; Allen, C.R.
2002-01-01
Strong inference is a powerful and rapid tool that can be used to identify and explain patterns in molecular biology, cell biology, and physiology. It is effective where causes are single and separable and where discrimination between pairwise alternative hypotheses can be determined experimentally by a simple yes or no answer. But causes in ecological systems are multiple and overlapping and are not entirely separable. Frequently, competing hypotheses cannot be distinguished by a single unambiguous test, but only by a suite of tests of different kinds, that produce a body of evidence to support one line of argument and not others. We call this process "adaptive inference". Instead of pitting each member of a pair of hypotheses against each other, adaptive inference relies on the exuberant invention of multiple, competing hypotheses, after which carefully structured comparative data are used to explore the logical consequences of each. Herein we present an example that demonstrates the attributes of adaptive inference that have developed out of a 30-year study of the resilience of ecosystems.
Bayesian inference with adaptive fuzzy priors and likelihoods.
Osoba, Osonde; Mitaim, Sanya; Kosko, Bart
2011-10-01
Fuzzy rule-based systems can approximate prior and likelihood probabilities in Bayesian inference and thereby approximate posterior probabilities. This fuzzy approximation technique allows users to apply a much wider and more flexible range of prior and likelihood probability density functions than found in most Bayesian inference schemes. The technique does not restrict the user to the few known closed-form conjugacy relations between the prior and likelihood. It allows the user in many cases to describe the densities with words and just two rules can absorb any bounded closed-form probability density directly into the rulebase. Learning algorithms can tune the expert rules as well as grow them from sample data. The learning laws and fuzzy approximators have a tractable form because of the convex-sum structure of additive fuzzy systems. This convex-sum structure carries over to the fuzzy posterior approximator. We prove a uniform approximation theorem for Bayesian posteriors: An additive fuzzy posterior uniformly approximates the posterior probability density if the prior or likelihood densities are continuous and bounded and if separate additive fuzzy systems approximate the prior and likelihood densities. Simulations demonstrate this fuzzy approximation of priors and posteriors for the three most common conjugate priors (as when a beta prior combines with a binomial likelihood to give a beta posterior). Adaptive fuzzy systems can also approximate non-conjugate priors and likelihoods as well as approximate hyperpriors in hierarchical Bayesian inference. The number of fuzzy rules can grow exponentially in iterative Bayesian inference if the previous posterior approximator becomes the new prior approximator. PMID:21478078
GenSo-EWS: a novel neural-fuzzy based early warning system for predicting bank failures.
Tung, W L; Quek, C; Cheng, P
2004-05-01
Bank failure prediction is an important issue for the regulators of the banking industries. The collapse and failure of a bank could trigger an adverse financial repercussion and generate negative impacts such as a massive bail out cost for the failing bank and loss of confidence from the investors and depositors. Very often, bank failures are due to financial distress. Hence, it is desirable to have an early warning system (EWS) that identifies potential bank failure or high-risk banks through the traits of financial distress. Various traditional statistical models have been employed to study bank failures [J Finance 1 (1975) 21; J Banking Finance 1 (1977) 249; J Banking Finance 10 (1986) 511; J Banking Finance 19 (1995) 1073]. However, these models do not have the capability to identify the characteristics of financial distress and thus function as black boxes. This paper proposes the use of a new neural fuzzy system [Foundations of neuro-fuzzy systems, 1997], namely the Generic Self-organising Fuzzy Neural Network (GenSoFNN) [IEEE Trans Neural Networks 13 (2002c) 1075] based on the compositional rule of inference (CRI) [Commun ACM 37 (1975) 77], as an alternative to predict banking failure. The CRI based GenSoFNN neural fuzzy network, henceforth denoted as GenSoFNN-CRI(S), functions as an EWS and is able to identify the inherent traits of financial distress based on financial covariates (features) derived from publicly available financial statements. The interaction between the selected features is captured in the form of highly intuitive IF-THEN fuzzy rules. Such easily comprehensible rules provide insights into the possible characteristics of financial distress and form the knowledge base for a highly desired EWS that aids bank regulation. The performance of the GenSoFNN-CRI(S) network is subsequently benchmarked against that of the Cox's proportional hazards model [J Banking Finance 10 (1986) 511; J Banking Finance 19 (1995) 1073], the multi
Falcon: neural fuzzy control and decision systems using FKP and PFKP clustering algorithms.
Tung, W L; Quek, C
2004-02-01
Neural fuzzy networks proposed in the literature can be broadly classified into two groups. The first group is essentially fuzzy systems with self-tuning capabilities and requires an initial rule base to be specified prior to training. The second group of neural fuzzy networks, on the other hand, is able to automatically formulate the fuzzy rules from the numerical training data. Examples are the Falcon-ART, and the POPFNN family of networks. A cluster analysis is first performed on the training data and the fuzzy rules are subsequently derived through the proper connections of these computed clusters. This correspondence proposes two new networks: Falcon-FKP and Falcon-PFKP. They are extensions of the Falcon-ART network, and aimed to overcome the shortcomings faced by the Falcon-ART network itself, i.e., poor classification ability when the classes of input data are very similar to each other, termination of training cycle depends heavily on a preset error parameter, the fuzzy rule base of the Falcon-ART network may not be consistent Nauck, there is no control over the number of fuzzy rules generated, and learning efficiency may deteriorate by using complementarily coded training data. These deficiencies are essentially inherent to the fuzzy ART, clustering technique employed by the Falcon-ART network. Hence, two clustering techniques--Fuzzy Kohonen Partitioning (FKP) and its pseudo variant PFKP, are synthesized with the basic Falcon structure to compute the fuzzy sets and to automatically derive the fuzzy rules from the training data. The resultant neural fuzzy networks are Falcon-FKP and Falcon-PFKP, respectively. These two proposed networks have a lean and efficient training algorithm and consistent fuzzy rule bases. Extensive simulations are conducted using the two networks and their performances are encouraging when benchmarked against other neural and neural fuzzy systems. PMID:15369109
Seizure prediction using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system.
Rabbi, Ahmed F; Azinfar, Leila; Fazel-Rezai, Reza
2013-01-01
In this study, we present a neuro-fuzzy approach of seizure prediction from invasive Electroencephalogram (EEG) by applying adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). Three nonlinear seizure predictive features were extracted from a patient's data obtained from the European Epilepsy Database, one of the most comprehensive EEG database for epilepsy research. A total of 36 hours of recordings including 7 seizures was used for analysis. The nonlinear features used in this study were similarity index, phase synchronization, and nonlinear interdependence. We designed an ANFIS classifier constructed based on these features as input. Fuzzy if-then rules were generated by the ANFIS classifier using the complex relationship of feature space provided during training. The membership function optimization was conducted based on a hybrid learning algorithm. The proposed method achieved highest sensitivity of 80% with false prediction rate as low as 0.46 per hour. PMID:24110134
A neural fuzzy controller learning by fuzzy error propagation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Nauck, Detlef; Kruse, Rudolf
1992-01-01
In this paper, we describe a procedure to integrate techniques for the adaptation of membership functions in a linguistic variable based fuzzy control environment by using neural network learning principles. This is an extension to our work. We solve this problem by defining a fuzzy error that is propagated back through the architecture of our fuzzy controller. According to this fuzzy error and the strength of its antecedent each fuzzy rule determines its amount of error. Depending on the current state of the controlled system and the control action derived from the conclusion, each rule tunes the membership functions of its antecedent and its conclusion. By this we get an unsupervised learning technique that enables a fuzzy controller to adapt to a control task by knowing just about the global state and the fuzzy error.
Genetic algorithm-based neural fuzzy decision tree for mixed scheduling in ATM networks.
Lin, Chin-Teng; Chung, I-Fang; Pu, Her-Chang; Lee', Tsern-Huei; Chang, Jyh-Yeong
2002-01-01
Future broadband integrated services networks based on asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) technology are expected to support multiple types of multimedia information with diverse statistical characteristics and quality of service (QoS) requirements. To meet these requirements, efficient scheduling methods are important for traffic control in ATM networks. Among general scheduling schemes, the rate monotonic algorithm is simple enough to be used in high-speed networks, but does not attain the high system utilization of the deadline driven algorithm. However, the deadline driven scheme is computationally complex and hard to implement in hardware. The mixed scheduling algorithm is a combination of the rate monotonic algorithm and the deadline driven algorithm; thus it can provide most of the benefits of these two algorithms. In this paper, we use the mixed scheduling algorithm to achieve high system utilization under the hardware constraint. Because there is no analytic method for schedulability testing of mixed scheduling, we propose a genetic algorithm-based neural fuzzy decision tree (GANFDT) to realize it in a real-time environment. The GANFDT combines a GA and a neural fuzzy network into a binary classification tree. This approach also exploits the power of the classification tree. Simulation results show that the GANFDT provides an efficient way of carrying out mixed scheduling in ATM networks. PMID:18244889
An Interval Type-2 Neural Fuzzy System for Online System Identification and Feature Elimination.
Lin, Chin-Teng; Pal, Nikhil R; Wu, Shang-Lin; Liu, Yu-Ting; Lin, Yang-Yin
2015-07-01
We propose an integrated mechanism for discarding derogatory features and extraction of fuzzy rules based on an interval type-2 neural fuzzy system (NFS)-in fact, it is a more general scheme that can discard bad features, irrelevant antecedent clauses, and even irrelevant rules. High-dimensional input variable and a large number of rules not only enhance the computational complexity of NFSs but also reduce their interpretability. Therefore, a mechanism for simultaneous extraction of fuzzy rules and reducing the impact of (or eliminating) the inferior features is necessary. The proposed approach, namely an interval type-2 Neural Fuzzy System for online System Identification and Feature Elimination (IT2NFS-SIFE), uses type-2 fuzzy sets to model uncertainties associated with information and data in designing the knowledge base. The consequent part of the IT2NFS-SIFE is of Takagi-Sugeno-Kang type with interval weights. The IT2NFS-SIFE possesses a self-evolving property that can automatically generate fuzzy rules. The poor features can be discarded through the concept of a membership modulator. The antecedent and modulator weights are learned using a gradient descent algorithm. The consequent part weights are tuned via the rule-ordered Kalman filter algorithm to enhance learning effectiveness. Simulation results show that IT2NFS-SIFE not only simplifies the system architecture by eliminating derogatory/irrelevant antecedent clauses, rules, and features but also maintains excellent performance. PMID:25163074
Adaptive Cluster Expansion for Inferring Boltzmann Machines with Noisy Data
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cocco, S.; Monasson, R.
2011-03-01
We introduce a procedure to infer the interactions among a set of binary variables, based on their sampled frequencies and pairwise correlations. The algorithm builds the clusters of variables contributing most to the entropy of the inferred Ising model and rejects the small contributions due to the sampling noise. Our procedure successfully recovers benchmark Ising models even at criticality and in the low temperature phase, and is applied to neurobiological data.
Keefe, Bruce D; Wincenciak, Joanna; Jellema, Tjeerd; Ward, James W; Barraclough, Nick E
2016-07-01
When observing another individual's actions, we can both recognize their actions and infer their beliefs concerning the physical and social environment. The extent to which visual adaptation influences action recognition and conceptually later stages of processing involved in deriving the belief state of the actor remains unknown. To explore this we used virtual reality (life-size photorealistic actors presented in stereoscopic three dimensions) to see how visual adaptation influences the perception of individuals in naturally unfolding social scenes at increasingly higher levels of action understanding. We presented scenes in which one actor picked up boxes (of varying number and weight), after which a second actor picked up a single box. Adaptation to the first actor's behavior systematically changed perception of the second actor. Aftereffects increased with the duration of the first actor's behavior, declined exponentially over time, and were independent of view direction. Inferences about the second actor's expectation of box weight were also distorted by adaptation to the first actor. Distortions in action recognition and actor expectations did not, however, extend across different actions, indicating that adaptation is not acting at an action-independent abstract level but rather at an action-dependent level. We conclude that although adaptation influences more complex inferences about belief states of individuals, this is likely to be a result of adaptation at an earlier action recognition stage rather than adaptation operating at a higher, more abstract level in mentalizing or simulation systems. PMID:27472496
INTEGRATING EVOLUTIONARY AND FUNCTIONAL APPROACHES TO INFER ADAPTATION AT SPECIFIC LOCI
Storz, Jay F.; Wheat, Christopher W.
2010-01-01
Inferences about adaptation at specific loci are often exclusively based on the static analysis of DNA sequence variation. Ideally, population-genetic evidence for positive selection serves as a stepping-off point for experimental studies to elucidate the functional significance of the putatively adaptive variation. We argue that inferences about adaptation at specific loci are best achieved by integrating the indirect, retrospective insights provided by population-genetic analyses with the more direct, mechanistic insights provided by functional experiments. Integrative studies of adaptive genetic variation may sometimes be motivated by experimental insights into molecular function, which then provide the impetus to perform population genetic tests to evaluate whether the functional variation is of adaptive significance. In other cases, studies may be initiated by genome scans of DNA variation to identify candidate loci for recent adaptation. Results of such analyses can then motivate experimental efforts to test whether the identified candidate loci do in fact contribute to functional variation in some fitness-related phenotype. Functional studies can provide corroborative evidence for positive selection at particular loci, and can potentially reveal specific molecular mechanisms of adaptation. PMID:20500215
Review of Medical Image Classification using the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System
Hosseini, Monireh Sheikh; Zekri, Maryam
2012-01-01
Image classification is an issue that utilizes image processing, pattern recognition and classification methods. Automatic medical image classification is a progressive area in image classification, and it is expected to be more developed in the future. Because of this fact, automatic diagnosis can assist pathologists by providing second opinions and reducing their workload. This paper reviews the application of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) as a classifier in medical image classification during the past 16 years. ANFIS is a fuzzy inference system (FIS) implemented in the framework of an adaptive fuzzy neural network. It combines the explicit knowledge representation of an FIS with the learning power of artificial neural networks. The objective of ANFIS is to integrate the best features of fuzzy systems and neural networks. A brief comparison with other classifiers, main advantages and drawbacks of this classifier are investigated. PMID:23493054
Horn, Sebastian S; Ruggeri, Azzurra; Pachur, Thorsten
2016-09-01
Judgments about objects in the world are often based on probabilistic information (or cues). A frugal judgment strategy that utilizes memory (i.e., the ability to discriminate between known and unknown objects) as a cue for inference is the recognition heuristic (RH). The usefulness of the RH depends on the structure of the environment, particularly the predictive power (validity) of recognition. Little is known about developmental differences in use of the RH. In this study, the authors examined (a) to what extent children and adolescents recruit the RH when making judgments, and (b) around what age adaptive use of the RH emerges. Primary schoolchildren (M = 9 years), younger adolescents (M = 12 years), and older adolescents (M = 17 years) made comparative judgments in task environments with either high or low recognition validity. Reliance on the RH was measured with a hierarchical multinomial model. Results indicated that primary schoolchildren already made systematic use of the RH. However, only older adolescents adaptively adjusted their strategy use between environments and were better able to discriminate between situations in which the RH led to correct versus incorrect inferences. These findings suggest that the use of simple heuristics does not progress unidirectionally across development but strongly depends on the task environment, in line with the perspective of ecological rationality. Moreover, adaptive heuristic inference seems to require experience and a developed base of domain knowledge. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:27505696
Inferring metabolic networks using the Bayesian adaptive graphical lasso with informative priors
PETERSON, CHRISTINE; VANNUCCI, MARINA; KARAKAS, CEMAL; CHOI, WILLIAM; MA, LIHUA; MALETIĆ-SAVATIĆ, MIRJANA
2014-01-01
Metabolic processes are essential for cellular function and survival. We are interested in inferring a metabolic network in activated microglia, a major neuroimmune cell in the brain responsible for the neuroinflammation associated with neurological diseases, based on a set of quantified metabolites. To achieve this, we apply the Bayesian adaptive graphical lasso with informative priors that incorporate known relationships between covariates. To encourage sparsity, the Bayesian graphical lasso places double exponential priors on the off-diagonal entries of the precision matrix. The Bayesian adaptive graphical lasso allows each double exponential prior to have a unique shrinkage parameter. These shrinkage parameters share a common gamma hyperprior. We extend this model to create an informative prior structure by formulating tailored hyperpriors on the shrinkage parameters. By choosing parameter values for each hyperprior that shift probability mass toward zero for nodes that are close together in a reference network, we encourage edges between covariates with known relationships. This approach can improve the reliability of network inference when the sample size is small relative to the number of parameters to be estimated. When applied to the data on activated microglia, the inferred network includes both known relationships and associations of potential interest for further investigation. PMID:24533172
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yurdusev, Mehmet Ali; Firat, Mahmut
2009-02-01
SummaryIn this study, an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is used to forecast monthly water use from several socio-economic and climatic factors including average monthly water bill, population, number of households, gross national product, monthly average temperature observed, monthly total rainfall, monthly average humidity observed and inflation rate. Water consumption modeling in this way will be more consistent than doing it using a single variable as more effective parameter could be incorporated. The ANFIS system is applied to modeling monthly water consumptions of Izmir, Turkey. The results indicated that ANFIS can be successfully applied for monthly water consumption modeling.
Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems for automatic detection of breast cancer.
Ubeyli, Elif Derya
2009-10-01
This paper intends to an integrated view of implementing adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for breast cancer detection. The Wisconsin breast cancer database contained records of patients with known diagnosis. The ANFIS classifiers learned how to differentiate a new case in the domain by given a training set of such records. The ANFIS classifier was used to detect the breast cancer when nine features defining breast cancer indications were used as inputs. The proposed ANFIS model combined the neural network adaptive capabilities and the fuzzy logic qualitative approach. Some conclusions concerning the impacts of features on the detection of breast cancer were obtained through analysis of the ANFIS. The performance of the ANFIS model was evaluated in terms of training performances and classification accuracies and the results confirmed that the proposed ANFIS model has potential in detecting the breast cancer. PMID:19827261
Classification of diabetes maculopathy images using data-adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference classifier.
Ibrahim, Sulaimon; Chowriappa, Pradeep; Dua, Sumeet; Acharya, U Rajendra; Noronha, Kevin; Bhandary, Sulatha; Mugasa, Hatwib
2015-12-01
Prolonged diabetes retinopathy leads to diabetes maculopathy, which causes gradual and irreversible loss of vision. It is important for physicians to have a decision system that detects the early symptoms of the disease. This can be achieved by building a classification model using machine learning algorithms. Fuzzy logic classifiers group data elements with a degree of membership in multiple classes by defining membership functions for each attribute. Various methods have been proposed to determine the partitioning of membership functions in a fuzzy logic inference system. A clustering method partitions the membership functions by grouping data that have high similarity into clusters, while an equalized universe method partitions data into predefined equal clusters. The distribution of each attribute determines its partitioning as fine or coarse. A simple grid partitioning partitions each attribute equally and is therefore not effective in handling varying distribution amongst the attributes. A data-adaptive method uses a data frequency-driven approach to partition each attribute based on the distribution of data in that attribute. A data-adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system creates corresponding rules for both finely distributed and coarsely distributed attributes. This method produced more useful rules and a more effective classification system. We obtained an overall accuracy of 98.55%. PMID:26109519
Design and inference for the intent-to-treat principle using adaptive treatment.
Dawson, Ree; Lavori, Philip W
2015-04-30
Nonadherence to assigned treatment jeopardizes the power and interpretability of intent-to-treat comparisons from clinical trial data and continues to be an issue for effectiveness studies, despite their pragmatic emphasis. We posit that new approaches to design need to complement developments in methods for causal inference to address nonadherence, in both experimental and practice settings. This paper considers the conventional study design for psychiatric research and other medical contexts, in which subjects are randomized to treatments that are fixed throughout the trial and presents an alternative that converts the fixed treatments into an adaptive intervention that reflects best practice. The key element is the introduction of an adaptive decision point midway into the study to address a patient's reluctance to remain on treatment before completing a full-length trial of medication. The clinical uncertainty about the appropriate adaptation prompts a second randomization at the new decision point to evaluate relevant options. Additionally, the standard 'all-or-none' principal stratification (PS) framework is applied to the first stage of the design to address treatment discontinuation that occurs too early for a midtrial adaptation. Drawing upon the adaptive intervention features, we develop assumptions to identify the PS causal estimand and to introduce restrictions on outcome distributions to simplify expectation-maximization calculations. We evaluate the performance of the PS setup, with particular attention to the role played by a binary covariate. The results emphasize the importance of collecting covariate data for use in design and analysis. We consider the generality of our approach beyond the setting of psychiatric research. PMID:25581413
Respiratory motion prediction by using the adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kakar, Manish; Nyström, Håkan; Rye Aarup, Lasse; Jakobi Nøttrup, Trine; Rune Olsen, Dag
2005-10-01
The quality of radiation therapy delivered for treating cancer patients is related to set-up errors and organ motion. Due to the margins needed to ensure adequate target coverage, many breast cancer patients have been shown to develop late side effects such as pneumonitis and cardiac damage. Breathing-adapted radiation therapy offers the potential for precise radiation dose delivery to a moving target and thereby reduces the side effects substantially. However, the basic requirement for breathing-adapted radiation therapy is to track and predict the target as precisely as possible. Recent studies have addressed the problem of organ motion prediction by using different methods including artificial neural network and model based approaches. In this study, we propose to use a hybrid intelligent system called ANFIS (the adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system) for predicting respiratory motion in breast cancer patients. In ANFIS, we combine both the learning capabilities of a neural network and reasoning capabilities of fuzzy logic in order to give enhanced prediction capabilities, as compared to using a single methodology alone. After training ANFIS and checking for prediction accuracy on 11 breast cancer patients, it was found that the RMSE (root-mean-square error) can be reduced to sub-millimetre accuracy over a period of 20 s provided the patient is assisted with coaching. The average RMSE for the un-coached patients was 35% of the respiratory amplitude and for the coached patients 6% of the respiratory amplitude.
Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for analysis of Doppler signals.
Ubeyli, Elif Derya
2006-01-01
In this study, a new approach based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was presented for detection of ophthalmic artery stenosis. Decision making was performed in two stages: feature extraction using the wavelet transform (WT) and the ANFIS trained with the backpropagation gradient descent method in combination with the least squares method. The ophthalmic arterial Doppler signals were recorded from 128 subjects that 62 of them had suffered from ophthalmic artery stenosis and the rest of them had been healthy subjects. Some conclusions concerning the impacts of features on the detection of ophthalmic artery stenosis were obtained through analysis of the ANFIS. The performance of the ANFIS classifier was evaluated in terms of training performance and classification accuracies (total classification accuracy was 97.59%) and the results confirmed that the proposed ANFIS classifier has potential in detecting the ophthalmic artery stenosis. PMID:17945697
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yi, J.; Choi, C.
2014-12-01
Rainfall observation and forecasting using remote sensing such as RADAR(Radio Detection and Ranging) and satellite images are widely used to delineate the increased damage by rapid weather changeslike regional storm and flash flood. The flood runoff was calculated by using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, the data driven models and MAPLE(McGill Algorithm for Precipitation Nowcasting by Lagrangian Extrapolation) forecasted precipitation data as the input variables.The result of flood estimation method using neuro-fuzzy technique and RADAR forecasted precipitation data was evaluated by comparing it with the actual data.The Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy method was applied to the Chungju Reservoir basin in Korea. The six rainfall events during the flood seasons in 2010 and 2011 were used for the input data.The reservoir inflow estimation results were comparedaccording to the rainfall data used for training, checking and testing data in the model setup process. The results of the 15 models with the combination of the input variables were compared and analyzed. Using the relatively larger clustering radius and the biggest flood ever happened for training data showed the better flood estimation in this study.The model using the MAPLE forecasted precipitation data showed better result for inflow estimation in the Chungju Reservoir.
Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for classification of ECG signals using Lyapunov exponents.
Ubeyli, Elif Derya
2009-03-01
This paper describes the application of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model for classification of electrocardiogram (ECG) signals. Decision making was performed in two stages: feature extraction by computation of Lyapunov exponents and classification by the ANFIS trained with the backpropagation gradient descent method in combination with the least squares method. Four types of ECG beats (normal beat, congestive heart failure beat, ventricular tachyarrhythmia beat, and atrial fibrillation beat) obtained from the PhysioBank database were classified by four ANFIS classifiers. To improve diagnostic accuracy, the fifth ANFIS classifier (combining ANFIS) was trained using the outputs of the four ANFIS classifiers as input data. The proposed ANFIS model combined the neural network adaptive capabilities and the fuzzy logic qualitative approach. Some conclusions concerning the saliency of features on classification of the ECG signals were obtained through analysis of the ANFIS. The performance of the ANFIS model was evaluated in terms of training performance and classification accuracies and the results confirmed that the proposed ANFIS model has potential in classifying the ECG signals. PMID:19084286
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ramesh, K.; Kesarkar, A. P.; Bhate, J.; Venkat Ratnam, M.; Jayaraman, A.
2015-01-01
The retrieval of accurate profiles of temperature and water vapour is important for the study of atmospheric convection. Recent development in computational techniques motivated us to use adaptive techniques in the retrieval algorithms. In this work, we have used an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to retrieve profiles of temperature and humidity up to 10 km over the tropical station Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), India. ANFIS is trained by using observations of temperature and humidity measurements by co-located Meisei GPS radiosonde (henceforth referred to as radiosonde) and microwave brightness temperatures observed by radiometrics multichannel microwave radiometer MP3000 (MWR). ANFIS is trained by considering these observations during rainy and non-rainy days (ANFIS(RD + NRD)) and during non-rainy days only (ANFIS(NRD)). The comparison of ANFIS(RD + NRD) and ANFIS(NRD) profiles with independent radiosonde observations and profiles retrieved using multivariate linear regression (MVLR: RD + NRD and NRD) and artificial neural network (ANN) indicated that the errors in the ANFIS(RD + NRD) are less compared to other retrieval methods. The Pearson product movement correlation coefficient (r) between retrieved and observed profiles is more than 92% for temperature profiles for all techniques and more than 99% for the ANFIS(RD + NRD) technique Therefore this new techniques is relatively better for the retrieval of temperature profiles. The comparison of bias, mean absolute error (MAE), RMSE and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (SMAPE) of retrieved temperature and relative humidity (RH) profiles using ANN and ANFIS also indicated that profiles retrieved using ANFIS(RD + NRD) are significantly better compared to the ANN technique. The analysis of profiles concludes that retrieved profiles using ANFIS techniques have improved the temperature retrievals substantially; however, the retrieval of RH by all techniques considered in this paper (ANN, MVLR and
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zoveidavianpoor, Mansoor; Samsuri, Ariffin; Shadizadeh, Seyed Reza
2013-02-01
Compressional-wave (Vp) data are key information for estimation of rock physical properties and formation evaluation in hydrocarbon reservoirs. However, the absence of Vp will significantly delay the application of specific risk-assessment approaches for reservoir exploration and development procedures. Since Vp is affected by several factors such as lithology, porosity, density, and etc., it is difficult to model their non-linear relationships using conventional approaches. In addition, currently available techniques are not efficient for Vp prediction, especially in carbonates. There is a growing interest in incorporating advanced technologies for an accurate prediction of lacking data in wells. The objectives of this study, therefore, are to analyze and predict Vp as a function of some conventional well logs by two approaches; Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR). Also, the significant impact of selected input parameters on response variable will be investigated. A total of 2156 data points from a giant Middle Eastern carbonate reservoir, derived from conventional well logs and Dipole Sonic Imager (DSI) log were utilized in this study. The quality of the prediction was quantified in terms of the mean squared error (MSE), correlation coefficient (R-square), and prediction efficiency error (PEE). Results show that the ANFIS outperforms MLR with MSE of 0.0552, R-square of 0.964, and PEE of 2%. It is posited that porosity has a significant impact in predicting Vp in the investigated carbonate reservoir.
Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for real-time monitoring of integrated-constructed wetlands.
Dzakpasu, Mawuli; Scholz, Miklas; McCarthy, Valerie; Jordan, Siobhán; Sani, Abdulkadir
2015-01-01
Monitoring large-scale treatment wetlands is costly and time-consuming, but required by regulators. Some analytical results are available only after 5 days or even longer. Thus, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) models were developed to predict the effluent concentrations of 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) and NH4-N from a full-scale integrated constructed wetland (ICW) treating domestic wastewater. The ANFIS models were developed and validated with a 4-year data set from the ICW system. Cost-effective, quicker and easier to measure variables were selected as the possible predictors based on their goodness of correlation with the outputs. A self-organizing neural network was applied to extract the most relevant input variables from all the possible input variables. Fuzzy subtractive clustering was used to identify the architecture of the ANFIS models and to optimize fuzzy rules, overall, improving the network performance. According to the findings, ANFIS could predict the effluent quality variation quite strongly. Effluent BOD5 and NH4-N concentrations were predicted relatively accurately by other effluent water quality parameters, which can be measured within a few hours. The simulated effluent BOD5 and NH4-N concentrations well fitted the measured concentrations, which was also supported by relatively low mean squared error. Thus, ANFIS can be useful for real-time monitoring and control of ICW systems. PMID:25607665
Adaptive network based on fuzzy inference system for equilibrated urea concentration prediction.
Azar, Ahmad Taher
2013-09-01
Post-dialysis urea rebound (PDUR) has been attributed mostly to redistribution of urea from different compartments, which is determined by variations in regional blood flows and transcellular urea mass transfer coefficients. PDUR occurs after 30-90min of short or standard hemodialysis (HD) sessions and after 60min in long 8-h HD sessions, which is inconvenient. This paper presents adaptive network based on fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for predicting intradialytic (Cint) and post-dialysis urea concentrations (Cpost) in order to predict the equilibrated (Ceq) urea concentrations without any blood sampling from dialysis patients. The accuracy of the developed system was prospectively compared with other traditional methods for predicting equilibrated urea (Ceq), post dialysis urea rebound (PDUR) and equilibrated dialysis dose (eKt/V). This comparison is done based on root mean squares error (RMSE), normalized mean square error (NRMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The ANFIS predictor for Ceq achieved mean RMSE values of 0.3654 and 0.4920 for training and testing, respectively. The statistical analysis demonstrated that there is no statistically significant difference found between the predicted and the measured values. The percentage of MAE and RMSE for testing phase is 0.63% and 0.96%, respectively. PMID:23806679
Prediction of antimicrobial peptides based on the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system application.
Fernandes, Fabiano C; Rigden, Daniel J; Franco, Octavio L
2012-01-01
Antimicrobial peptides (AMPs) are widely distributed defense molecules and represent a promising alternative for solving the problem of antibiotic resistance. Nevertheless, the experimental time required to screen putative AMPs makes computational simulations based on peptide sequence analysis and/or molecular modeling extremely attractive. Artificial intelligence methods acting as simulation and prediction tools are of great importance in helping to efficiently discover and design novel AMPs. In the present study, state-of-the-art published outcomes using different prediction methods and databases were compared to an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model. Data from our study showed that ANFIS obtained an accuracy of 96.7% and a Matthew's Correlation Coefficient (MCC) of0.936, which proved it to be an efficient model for pattern recognition in antimicrobial peptide prediction. Furthermore, a lower number of input parameters were needed for the ANFIS model, improving the speed and ease of prediction. In summary, due to the fuzzy nature ofAMP physicochemical properties, the ANFIS approach presented here can provide an efficient solution for screening putative AMP sequences and for exploration of properties characteristic of AMPs. PMID:23193592
Classifying work rate from heart rate measurements using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system.
Kolus, Ahmet; Imbeau, Daniel; Dubé, Philippe-Antoine; Dubeau, Denise
2016-05-01
In a new approach based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), field heart rate (HR) measurements were used to classify work rate into four categories: very light, light, moderate, and heavy. Inter-participant variability (physiological and physical differences) was considered. Twenty-eight participants performed Meyer and Flenghi's step-test and a maximal treadmill test, during which heart rate and oxygen consumption (VO2) were measured. Results indicated that heart rate monitoring (HR, HRmax, and HRrest) and body weight are significant variables for classifying work rate. The ANFIS classifier showed superior sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy compared to current practice using established work rate categories based on percent heart rate reserve (%HRR). The ANFIS classifier showed an overall 29.6% difference in classification accuracy and a good balance between sensitivity (90.7%) and specificity (95.2%) on average. With its ease of implementation and variable measurement, the ANFIS classifier shows potential for widespread use by practitioners for work rate assessment. PMID:26851475
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ma, Xiang; Zabaras, Nicholas
2009-03-01
A new approach to modeling inverse problems using a Bayesian inference method is introduced. The Bayesian approach considers the unknown parameters as random variables and seeks the probabilistic distribution of the unknowns. By introducing the concept of the stochastic prior state space to the Bayesian formulation, we reformulate the deterministic forward problem as a stochastic one. The adaptive hierarchical sparse grid collocation (ASGC) method is used for constructing an interpolant to the solution of the forward model in this prior space which is large enough to capture all the variability/uncertainty in the posterior distribution of the unknown parameters. This solution can be considered as a function of the random unknowns and serves as a stochastic surrogate model for the likelihood calculation. Hierarchical Bayesian formulation is used to derive the posterior probability density function (PPDF). The spatial model is represented as a convolution of a smooth kernel and a Markov random field. The state space of the PPDF is explored using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms to obtain statistics of the unknowns. The likelihood calculation is performed by directly sampling the approximate stochastic solution obtained through the ASGC method. The technique is assessed on two nonlinear inverse problems: source inversion and permeability estimation in flow through porous media.
An associative model of adaptive inference for learning word-referent mappings.
Kachergis, George; Yu, Chen; Shiffrin, Richard M
2012-04-01
People can learn word-referent pairs over a short series of individually ambiguous situations containing multiple words and referents (Yu & Smith, 2007, Cognition 106: 1558-1568). Cross-situational statistical learning relies on the repeated co-occurrence of words with their intended referents, but simple co-occurrence counts cannot explain the findings. Mutual exclusivity (ME: an assumption of one-to-one mappings) can reduce ambiguity by leveraging prior experience to restrict the number of word-referent pairings considered but can also block learning of non-one-to-one mappings. The present study first trained learners on one-to-one mappings with varying numbers of repetitions. In late training, a new set of word-referent pairs were introduced alongside pretrained pairs; each pretrained pair consistently appeared with a new pair. Results indicate that (1) learners quickly infer new pairs in late training on the basis of their knowledge of pretrained pairs, exhibiting ME; and (2) learners also adaptively relax the ME bias and learn two-to-two mappings involving both pretrained and new words and objects. We present an associative model that accounts for both results using competing familiarity and uncertainty biases. PMID:22215466
Denef, Vincent; Verberkmoes, Nathan C; Shah, Manesh B; Abraham, Paul E; Lefsrud, Mark G; Hettich, Robert {Bob} L; Banfield, Jillian F.
2009-01-01
Analyses of ecological and evolutionary processes that shape microbial consortia are facilitated by comprehensive studies of ecosystems with low species richness. In the current study we evaluated the role of recombination in altering the fitness of chemoautotrophic bacteria in their natural environment. Proteomics-inferred genome typing (PIGT) was used to determine the genomic make-up of Leptospirillum group II populations in 27 biofilms sampled from six locations in the Richmond Mine acid mine drainage system (Iron Mountain, CA) over a four-year period. We observed six distinct genotypes that are recombinants comprised of segments from two parental genotypes. Community genomic analyses revealed additional low abundance recombinant variants. The dominance of some genotypes despite a larger available genome pool, and patterns of spatiotemporal distribution within the ecosystem, indicate selection for distinct recombinants. Genes involved in motility, signal transduction and transport were overrepresented in the tens to hundreds of kilobase recombinant blocks, whereas core metabolic functions were significantly underrepresented. Our findings demonstrate the power of PIGT and reveal that recombination is a mechanism for fine-scale adaptation in this system.
Racing to learn: statistical inference and learning in a single spiking neuron with adaptive kernels
Afshar, Saeed; George, Libin; Tapson, Jonathan; van Schaik, André; Hamilton, Tara J.
2014-01-01
This paper describes the Synapto-dendritic Kernel Adapting Neuron (SKAN), a simple spiking neuron model that performs statistical inference and unsupervised learning of spatiotemporal spike patterns. SKAN is the first proposed neuron model to investigate the effects of dynamic synapto-dendritic kernels and demonstrate their computational power even at the single neuron scale. The rule-set defining the neuron is simple: there are no complex mathematical operations such as normalization, exponentiation or even multiplication. The functionalities of SKAN emerge from the real-time interaction of simple additive and binary processes. Like a biological neuron, SKAN is robust to signal and parameter noise, and can utilize both in its operations. At the network scale neurons are locked in a race with each other with the fastest neuron to spike effectively “hiding” its learnt pattern from its neighbors. The robustness to noise, high speed, and simple building blocks not only make SKAN an interesting neuron model in computational neuroscience, but also make it ideal for implementation in digital and analog neuromorphic systems which is demonstrated through an implementation in a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA). Matlab, Python, and Verilog implementations of SKAN are available at: http://www.uws.edu.au/bioelectronics_neuroscience/bens/reproducible_research. PMID:25505378
Lachmann, Alexander; Giorgi, Federico M.; Lopez, Gonzalo; Califano, Andrea
2016-01-01
Summary: The accurate reconstruction of gene regulatory networks from large scale molecular profile datasets represents one of the grand challenges of Systems Biology. The Algorithm for the Reconstruction of Accurate Cellular Networks (ARACNe) represents one of the most effective tools to accomplish this goal. However, the initial Fixed Bandwidth (FB) implementation is both inefficient and unable to deal with sample sets providing largely uneven coverage of the probability density space. Here, we present a completely new implementation of the algorithm, based on an Adaptive Partitioning strategy (AP) for estimating the Mutual Information. The new AP implementation (ARACNe-AP) achieves a dramatic improvement in computational performance (200× on average) over the previous methodology, while preserving the Mutual Information estimator and the Network inference accuracy of the original algorithm. Given that the previous version of ARACNe is extremely demanding, the new version of the algorithm will allow even researchers with modest computational resources to build complex regulatory networks from hundreds of gene expression profiles. Availability and Implementation: A JAVA cross-platform command line executable of ARACNe, together with all source code and a detailed usage guide are freely available on Sourceforge (http://sourceforge.net/projects/aracne-ap). JAVA version 8 or higher is required. Contact: califano@c2b2.columbia.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:27153652
Subhi Al-batah, Mohammad; Mat Isa, Nor Ashidi; Klaib, Mohammad Fadel; Al-Betar, Mohammed Azmi
2014-01-01
To date, cancer of uterine cervix is still a leading cause of cancer-related deaths in women worldwide. The current methods (i.e., Pap smear and liquid-based cytology (LBC)) to screen for cervical cancer are time-consuming and dependent on the skill of the cytopathologist and thus are rather subjective. Therefore, this paper presents an intelligent computer vision system to assist pathologists in overcoming these problems and, consequently, produce more accurate results. The developed system consists of two stages. In the first stage, the automatic features extraction (AFE) algorithm is performed. In the second stage, a neuro-fuzzy model called multiple adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (MANFIS) is proposed for recognition process. The MANFIS contains a set of ANFIS models which are arranged in parallel combination to produce a model with multi-input-multioutput structure. The system is capable of classifying cervical cell image into three groups, namely, normal, low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL) and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL). The experimental results prove the capability of the AFE algorithm to be as effective as the manual extraction by human experts, while the proposed MANFIS produces a good classification performance with 94.2% accuracy. PMID:24707316
Al-batah, Mohammad Subhi; Isa, Nor Ashidi Mat; Klaib, Mohammad Fadel; Al-Betar, Mohammed Azmi
2014-01-01
To date, cancer of uterine cervix is still a leading cause of cancer-related deaths in women worldwide. The current methods (i.e., Pap smear and liquid-based cytology (LBC)) to screen for cervical cancer are time-consuming and dependent on the skill of the cytopathologist and thus are rather subjective. Therefore, this paper presents an intelligent computer vision system to assist pathologists in overcoming these problems and, consequently, produce more accurate results. The developed system consists of two stages. In the first stage, the automatic features extraction (AFE) algorithm is performed. In the second stage, a neuro-fuzzy model called multiple adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (MANFIS) is proposed for recognition process. The MANFIS contains a set of ANFIS models which are arranged in parallel combination to produce a model with multi-input-multioutput structure. The system is capable of classifying cervical cell image into three groups, namely, normal, low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL) and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL). The experimental results prove the capability of the AFE algorithm to be as effective as the manual extraction by human experts, while the proposed MANFIS produces a good classification performance with 94.2% accuracy. PMID:24707316
Estimating daily pan evaporation using adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Keskin, M. Erol; Terzi, Özlem; Taylan, Dilek
2009-09-01
Estimation of evaporation is important for water planning, management, and hydrological practices. There are many available methods to estimate evaporation from a water surface, comprising both direct and indirect methods. All the evaporation models are based on crisp conceptions with no uncertainty element coupled into the model structure although in daily evaporation variations there are uncontrollable effects to a certain extent. The probabilistic, statistical, and stochastic approaches require large amounts of data for the modeling purposes and therefore are not practical in local evaporation studies. It is therefore necessary to adopt a better approach for evaporation modeling, which is the fuzzy sets and adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) as used in this paper. ANFIS and fuzzy sets have been evaluated for its applicability to estimate evaporation from meteorological data which is including air and water temperatures, solar radiation, and air pressure obtained from Automated GroWheather meteorological station located near Lake Eğirdir and daily pan evaporation values measured by XVIII. District Directorate of State Hydraulic Works. Results of ANFIS and fuzzy logic approaches were analyzed and compared with measured daily pan evaporation values. ANFIS approach could be employed more successfully in modeling the evaporation process than fuzzy sets.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ja'fari, Ahmad; Kadkhodaie-Ilkhchi, Ali; Sharghi, Yoosef; Ghanavati, Kiarash
2012-02-01
Fractures as the most common and important geological features have a significant share in reservoir fluid flow. Therefore, fracture detection is one of the important steps in fractured reservoir characterization. Different tools and methods are introduced for fracture detection from which formation image logs are considered as the common and effective tools. Due to the economical considerations, image logs are available for a limited number of wells in a hydrocarbon field. In this paper, we suggest a model to estimate fracture density from the conventional well logs using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. Image logs from two wells of the Asmari formation in one of the SW Iranian oil fields are used to verify the results of the model. Statistical data analysis indicates good correlation between fracture density and well log data including sonic, deep resistivity, neutron porosity and bulk density. The results of this study show that there is good agreement (correlation coefficient of 98%) between the measured and neuro-fuzzy estimated fracture density.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gowtham, K. N.; Vasudevan, M.; Maduraimuthu, V.; Jayakumar, T.
2011-04-01
Modified 9Cr-1Mo ferritic steel is used as a structural material for steam generator components of power plants. Generally, tungsten inert gas (TIG) welding is preferred for welding of these steels in which the depth of penetration achievable during autogenous welding is limited. Therefore, activated flux TIG (A-TIG) welding, a novel welding technique, has been developed in-house to increase the depth of penetration. In modified 9Cr-1Mo steel joints produced by the A-TIG welding process, weld bead width, depth of penetration, and heat-affected zone (HAZ) width play an important role in determining the mechanical properties as well as the performance of the weld joints during service. To obtain the desired weld bead geometry and HAZ width, it becomes important to set the welding process parameters. In this work, adaptative neuro fuzzy inference system is used to develop independent models correlating the welding process parameters like current, voltage, and torch speed with weld bead shape parameters like depth of penetration, bead width, and HAZ width. Then a genetic algorithm is employed to determine the optimum A-TIG welding process parameters to obtain the desired weld bead shape parameters and HAZ width.
Prediction of Scour Depth around Bridge Piers using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Valyrakis, Manousos; Zhang, Hanqing
2014-05-01
Earth's surface is continuously shaped due to the action of geophysical flows. Erosion due to the flow of water in river systems has been identified as a key problem in preserving ecological health of river systems but also a threat to our built environment and critical infrastructure, worldwide. As an example, it has been estimated that a major reason for bridge failure is due to scour. Even though the flow past bridge piers has been investigated both experimentally and numerically, and the mechanisms of scouring are relatively understood, there still lacks a tool that can offer fast and reliable predictions. Most of the existing formulas for prediction of bridge pier scour depth are empirical in nature, based on a limited range of data or for piers of specific shape. In this work, the application of a Machine Learning model that has been successfully employed in Water Engineering, namely an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is proposed to estimate the scour depth around bridge piers. In particular, various complexity architectures are sequentially built, in order to identify the optimal for scour depth predictions, using appropriate training and validation subsets obtained from the USGS database (and pre-processed to remove incomplete records). The model has five variables, namely the effective pier width (b), the approach velocity (v), the approach depth (y), the mean grain diameter (D50) and the skew to flow. Simulations are conducted with data groups (bed material type, pier type and shape) and different number of input variables, to produce reduced complexity and easily interpretable models. Analysis and comparison of the results indicate that the developed ANFIS model has high accuracy and outstanding generalization ability for prediction of scour parameters. The effective pier width (as opposed to skew to flow) is amongst the most relevant input parameters for the estimation.
qPR: An adaptive partial-report procedure based on Bayesian inference
Baek, Jongsoo; Lesmes, Luis Andres; Lu, Zhong-Lin
2016-01-01
Iconic memory is best assessed with the partial report procedure in which an array of letters appears briefly on the screen and a poststimulus cue directs the observer to report the identity of the cued letter(s). Typically, 6–8 cue delays or 600–800 trials are tested to measure the iconic memory decay function. Here we develop a quick partial report, or qPR, procedure based on a Bayesian adaptive framework to estimate the iconic memory decay function with much reduced testing time. The iconic memory decay function is characterized by an exponential function and a joint probability distribution of its three parameters. Starting with a prior of the parameters, the method selects the stimulus to maximize the expected information gain in the next test trial. It then updates the posterior probability distribution of the parameters based on the observer's response using Bayesian inference. The procedure is reiterated until either the total number of trials or the precision of the parameter estimates reaches a certain criterion. Simulation studies showed that only 100 trials were necessary to reach an average absolute bias of 0.026 and a precision of 0.070 (both in terms of probability correct). A psychophysical validation experiment showed that estimates of the iconic memory decay function obtained with 100 qPR trials exhibited good precision (the half width of the 68.2% credible interval = 0.055) and excellent agreement with those obtained with 1,600 trials of the conventional method of constant stimuli procedure (RMSE = 0.063). Quick partial-report relieves the data collection burden in characterizing iconic memory and makes it possible to assess iconic memory in clinical populations. PMID:27580045
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Accardi, Luigi; Khrennikov, Andrei; Ohya, Masanori; Tanaka, Yoshiharu; Yamato, Ichiro
2016-07-01
Recently a novel quantum information formalism — quantum adaptive dynamics — was developed and applied to modelling of information processing by bio-systems including cognitive phenomena: from molecular biology (glucose-lactose metabolism for E.coli bacteria, epigenetic evolution) to cognition, psychology. From the foundational point of view quantum adaptive dynamics describes mutual adapting of the information states of two interacting systems (physical or biological) as well as adapting of co-observations performed by the systems. In this paper we apply this formalism to model unconscious inference: the process of transition from sensation to perception. The paper combines theory and experiment. Statistical data collected in an experimental study on recognition of a particular ambiguous figure, the Schröder stairs, support the viability of the quantum(-like) model of unconscious inference including modelling of biases generated by rotation-contexts. From the probabilistic point of view, we study (for concrete experimental data) the problem of contextuality of probability, its dependence on experimental contexts. Mathematically contextuality leads to non-Komogorovness: probability distributions generated by various rotation contexts cannot be treated in the Kolmogorovian framework. At the same time they can be embedded in a “big Kolmogorov space” as conditional probabilities. However, such a Kolmogorov space has too complex structure and the operational quantum formalism in the form of quantum adaptive dynamics simplifies the modelling essentially.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mahandrio, Irsantyo; Budi, Andriantama; Liong, The Houw; Purqon, Acep
2015-09-01
The growing patterns in cultural and mining sectors are interesting particularly in developed country such as in Indonesia. Here, we investigate the local characteristics of stocks between the sectors of agriculture and mining which si representing two leading companies and two common companies in these sectors. We analyze the prediction by using Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The type of Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) is Sugeno type with Generalized Bell membership function (Gbell). Our results show that ANFIS is a proper method to predicting the stock market with the RMSE : 0.14% for AALI and 0.093% for SGRO representing the agriculture sectors, meanwhile, 0.073% for ANTM and 0.1107% for MDCO representing the mining sectors.
Poisson-Based Inference for Perturbation Models in Adaptive Spelling Training
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Baschera, Gian-Marco; Gross, Markus
2010-01-01
We present an inference algorithm for perturbation models based on Poisson regression. The algorithm is designed to handle unclassified input with multiple errors described by independent mal-rules. This knowledge representation provides an intelligent tutoring system with local and global information about a student, such as error classification…
Keightley, Peter D; Campos, José L; Booker, Tom R; Charlesworth, Brian
2016-06-01
Many approaches for inferring adaptive molecular evolution analyze the unfolded site frequency spectrum (SFS), a vector of counts of sites with different numbers of copies of derived alleles in a sample of alleles from a population. Accurate inference of the high-copy-number elements of the SFS is difficult, however, because of misassignment of alleles as derived vs. ancestral. This is a known problem with parsimony using outgroup species. Here we show that the problem is particularly serious if there is variation in the substitution rate among sites brought about by variation in selective constraint levels. We present a new method for inferring the SFS using one or two outgroups that attempts to overcome the problem of misassignment. We show that two outgroups are required for accurate estimation of the SFS if there is substantial variation in selective constraints, which is expected to be the case for nonsynonymous sites in protein-coding genes. We apply the method to estimate unfolded SFSs for synonymous and nonsynonymous sites in a population of Drosophila melanogaster from phase 2 of the Drosophila Population Genomics Project. We use the unfolded spectra to estimate the frequency and strength of advantageous and deleterious mutations and estimate that ∼50% of amino acid substitutions are positively selected but that <0.5% of new amino acid mutations are beneficial, with a scaled selection strength of Nes ≈ 12. PMID:27098912
Heddam, Salim
2014-01-01
This article presents a comparison of two adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS)-based neuro-fuzzy models applied for modeling dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration. The two models are developed using experimental data collected from the bottom (USGS station no: 420615121533601) and top (USGS station no: 420615121533600) stations at Klamath River at site KRS12a nr Rock Quarry, Oregon, USA. The input variables used for the ANFIS models are water pH, temperature, specific conductance, and sensor depth. Two ANFIS-based neuro-fuzzy systems are presented. The two neuro-fuzzy systems are: (1) grid partition-based fuzzy inference system, named ANFIS_GRID, and (2) subtractive-clustering-based fuzzy inference system, named ANFIS_SUB. In both models, 60 % of the data set was randomly assigned to the training set, 20 % to the validation set, and 20 % to the test set. The ANFIS results are compared with multiple linear regression models. The system proposed in this paper shows a novelty approach with regard to the usage of ANFIS models for DO concentration modeling. PMID:24057665
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Knuth, K. H.
2001-05-01
We consider the application of Bayesian inference to the study of self-organized structures in complex adaptive systems. In particular, we examine the distribution of elements, agents, or processes in systems dominated by hierarchical structure. We demonstrate that results obtained by Caianiello [1] on Hierarchical Modular Systems (HMS) can be found by applying Jaynes' Principle of Group Invariance [2] to a few key assumptions about our knowledge of hierarchical organization. Subsequent application of the Principle of Maximum Entropy allows inferences to be made about specific systems. The utility of the Bayesian method is considered by examining both successes and failures of the hierarchical model. We discuss how Caianiello's original statements suffer from the Mind Projection Fallacy [3] and we restate his assumptions thus widening the applicability of the HMS model. The relationship between inference and statistical physics, described by Jaynes [4], is reiterated with the expectation that this realization will aid the field of complex systems research by moving away from often inappropriate direct application of statistical mechanics to a more encompassing inferential methodology.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kiso, Atsushi; Seki, Hirokazu
This paper describes a method for discriminating of the human forearm motions based on the myoelectric signals using an adaptive fuzzy inference system. In conventional studies, the neural network is often used to estimate motion intention by the myoelectric signals and realizes the high discrimination precision. On the other hand, this study uses the fuzzy inference for a human forearm motion discrimination based on the myoelectric signals. This study designs the membership function and the fuzzy rules using the average value and the standard deviation of the root mean square of the myoelectric potential for every channel of each motion. In addition, the characteristics of the myoelectric potential gradually change as a result of the muscle fatigue. Therefore, the motion discrimination should be performed by taking muscle fatigue into consideration. This study proposes a method to redesign the fuzzy inference system such that dynamic change of the myoelectric potential because of the muscle fatigue will be taken into account. Some experiments carried out using a myoelectric hand simulator show the effectiveness of the proposed motion discrimination method.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Oğuz, Yüksel; Üstün, Seydi Vakkas; Yabanova, İsmail; Yumurtaci, Mehmet; Güney, İrfan
2012-01-01
This article presents design of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for the turbine speed control for purpose of improving the power quality of the power production system of a split shaft microturbine. To improve the operation performance of the microturbine power generation system (MTPGS) and to obtain the electrical output magnitudes in desired quality and value (terminal voltage, operation frequency, power drawn by consumer and production power), a controller depended on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system was designed. The MTPGS consists of the microturbine speed controller, a split shaft microturbine, cylindrical pole synchronous generator, excitation circuit and voltage regulator. Modeling of dynamic behavior of synchronous generator driver with a turbine and split shaft turbine was realized by using the Matlab/Simulink and SimPowerSystems in it. It is observed from the simulation results that with the microturbine speed control made with ANFIS, when the MTPGS is operated under various loading situations, the terminal voltage and frequency values of the system can be settled in desired operation values in a very short time without significant oscillation and electrical production power in desired quality can be obtained.
Development of an on-line diagnosis system for rotor vibration via model-based intelligent inference
Bai; Hsiao; Tsai; Lin
2000-01-01
An on-line fault detection and isolation technique is proposed for the diagnosis of rotating machinery. The architecture of the system consists of a feature generation module and a fault inference module. Lateral vibration data are used for calculating the system features. Both continuous-time and discrete-time parameter estimation algorithms are employed for generating the features. A neural fuzzy network is exploited for intelligent inference of faults based on the extracted features. The proposed method is implemented on a digital signal processor. Experiments carried out for a rotor kit and a centrifugal fan indicate the potential of the proposed techniques in predictive maintenance. PMID:10641641
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Deiglmayr, Anne; Spada, Hans
2010-01-01
Adaptive support for computer-mediated collaboration aims at supporting learners' collaboration in a way that is tailored to their actual needs and by fostering their self-regulation, leading to the acquisition of new collaboration skills. This review gives an example of developing support for a specific collaboration skill: the co-construction of…
Modeling and Simulation of An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) for Mobile Learning
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Al-Hmouz, A.; Shen, Jun; Al-Hmouz, R.; Yan, Jun
2012-01-01
With recent advances in mobile learning (m-learning), it is becoming possible for learning activities to occur everywhere. The learner model presented in our earlier work was partitioned into smaller elements in the form of learner profiles, which collectively represent the entire learning process. This paper presents an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy…
Adaptive thresholding for reliable topological inference in single subject fMRI analysis.
Gorgolewski, Krzysztof J; Storkey, Amos J; Bastin, Mark E; Pernet, Cyril R
2012-01-01
Single subject fMRI has proved to be a useful tool for mapping functional areas in clinical procedures such as tumor resection. Using fMRI data, clinicians assess the risk, plan and execute such procedures based on thresholded statistical maps. However, because current thresholding methods were developed mainly in the context of cognitive neuroscience group studies, most single subject fMRI maps are thresholded manually to satisfy specific criteria related to single subject analyzes. Here, we propose a new adaptive thresholding method which combines Gamma-Gaussian mixture modeling with topological thresholding to improve cluster delineation. In a series of simulations we show that by adapting to the signal and noise properties, the new method performs well in terms of total number of errors but also in terms of the trade-off between false negative and positive cluster error rates. Similarly, simulations show that adaptive thresholding performs better than fixed thresholding in terms of over and underestimation of the true activation border (i.e., higher spatial accuracy). Finally, through simulations and a motor test-retest study on 10 volunteer subjects, we show that adaptive thresholding improves reliability, mainly by accounting for the global signal variance. This in turn increases the likelihood that the true activation pattern can be determined offering an automatic yet flexible way to threshold single subject fMRI maps. PMID:22936908
Yang, Zhixian; Wang, Yinghua; Ouyang, Gaoxiang
2014-01-01
Background electroencephalography (EEG), recorded with scalp electrodes, in children with electrical status epilepticus during slow-wave sleep (ESES) syndrome and control subjects has been analyzed. We considered 10 ESES patients, all right-handed and aged 3-9 years. The 10 control individuals had the same characteristics of the ESES ones but presented a normal EEG. Recordings were undertaken in the awake and relaxed states with their eyes open. The complexity of background EEG was evaluated using the permutation entropy (PE) and sample entropy (SampEn) in combination with the ANOVA test. It can be seen that the entropy measures of EEG are significantly different between the ESES patients and normal control subjects. Then, a classification framework based on entropy measures and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) classifier is proposed to distinguish ESES and normal EEG signals. The results are promising and a classification accuracy of about 89% is achieved. PMID:24790547
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Trianto, Andriantama Budi; Hadi, I. M.; Liong, The Houw; Purqon, Acep
2015-09-01
Indonesian economical development is growing well. It has effect for their invesment in Banks and the stock market. In this study, we perform prediction for the three blue chips of Indonesian bank i.e. BCA, BNI, and MANDIRI by using the method of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Takagi-Sugeno rules and Generalized bell (Gbell) as the membership function. Our results show that ANFIS perform good prediction with RMSE for BCA of 27, BNI of 5.29, and MANDIRI of 13.41, respectively. Furthermore, we develop an active strategy to gain more benefit. We compare between passive strategy versus active strategy. Our results shows that for the passive strategy gains 13 million rupiah, while for the active strategy gains 47 million rupiah in one year. The active investment strategy significantly shows gaining multiple benefit than the passive one.
Yang, Zhixian; Wang, Yinghua; Ouyang, Gaoxiang
2014-01-01
Background electroencephalography (EEG), recorded with scalp electrodes, in children with electrical status epilepticus during slow-wave sleep (ESES) syndrome and control subjects has been analyzed. We considered 10 ESES patients, all right-handed and aged 3–9 years. The 10 control individuals had the same characteristics of the ESES ones but presented a normal EEG. Recordings were undertaken in the awake and relaxed states with their eyes open. The complexity of background EEG was evaluated using the permutation entropy (PE) and sample entropy (SampEn) in combination with the ANOVA test. It can be seen that the entropy measures of EEG are significantly different between the ESES patients and normal control subjects. Then, a classification framework based on entropy measures and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) classifier is proposed to distinguish ESES and normal EEG signals. The results are promising and a classification accuracy of about 89% is achieved. PMID:24790547
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aminifar, S.; Yosefi, Gh.
2007-09-01
In this paper, we present away of using Anfis architecture to implement a new fuzzy logic controller chip. Anfis which tunes the fuzzy inference system with a backpropagation algorithm based on collection of input-output data makes fuzzy system to learn. This training is given from a standard response of the system and membership functions are suitably modified. For adaptive Anfis based fuzzy controller and its circuit design, we propose new circuits for implementing each controller block, and illustrate the test results and control surface of Anfis controller along with CMOS fuzzy logic controller using Matlab and Hspice software respectively. For implementing controller according to the Anfis training, we proposed new and improved integrated circuits which consist of Fuzzifier, Min operator and Multiplier/Divider. The control surfaces of controller are obtained by using Anfis training and simulation results of integrated circuits in less than 0.075 mm2 area in 0.35 μm CMOS standard technology.
Becerra, Miguel A; Orrego, Diana A; Delgado-Trejos, Edilson
2013-01-01
The heart's mechanical activity can be appraised by auscultation recordings, taken from the 4-Standard Auscultation Areas (4-SAA), one for each cardiac valve, as there are invisible murmurs when a single area is examined. This paper presents an effective approach for cardiac murmur detection based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) over acoustic representations derived from Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Hilbert-Huang Transform (HHT) of 4-channel phonocardiograms (4-PCG). The 4-PCG database belongs to the National University of Colombia. Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCC) and statistical moments of HHT were estimated on the combination of different intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). A fuzzy-rough feature selection (FRFS) was applied in order to reduce complexity. An ANFIS network was implemented on the feature space, randomly initialized, adjusted using heuristic rules and trained using a hybrid learning algorithm made up by least squares and gradient descent. Global classification for 4-SAA was around 98.9% with satisfactory sensitivity and specificity, using a 50-fold cross-validation procedure (70/30 split). The representation capability of the EMD technique applied to 4-PCG and the neuro-fuzzy inference of acoustic features offered a high performance to detect cardiac murmurs. PMID:24109851
Karami, Ali; Keiter, Steffen; Hollert, Henner; Courtenay, Simon C
2013-03-01
This study represents a first attempt at applying a fuzzy inference system (FIS) and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to the field of aquatic biomonitoring for classification of the dosage and time of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) injection through selected biomarkers in African catfish (Clarias gariepinus). Fish were injected either intramuscularly (i.m.) or intraperitoneally (i.p.) with BaP. Hepatic glutathione S-transferase (GST) activities, relative visceral fat weights (LSI), and four biliary fluorescent aromatic compounds (FACs) concentrations were used as the inputs in the modeling study. Contradictory rules in FIS and ANFIS models appeared after conversion of bioassay results into human language (rule-based system). A "data trimming" approach was proposed to eliminate the conflicts prior to fuzzification. However, the model produced was relevant only to relatively low exposures to BaP, especially through the i.m. route of exposure. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was unable to raise the classification rate to an acceptable level. In conclusion, FIS and ANFIS models have limited applications in the field of fish biomarker studies. PMID:22752811
Zhang, Guannan; Webster, Clayton G; Gunzburger, Max D
2012-09-01
Although Bayesian analysis has become vital to the quantification of prediction uncertainty in groundwater modeling, its application has been hindered due to the computational cost associated with numerous model executions needed for exploring the posterior probability density function (PPDF) of model parameters. This is particularly the case when the PPDF is estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. In this study, we develop a new approach that improves computational efficiency of Bayesian inference by constructing a surrogate system based on an adaptive sparse-grid high-order stochastic collocation (aSG-hSC) method. Unlike previous works using first-order hierarchical basis, we utilize a compactly supported higher-order hierar- chical basis to construct the surrogate system, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of computational simulations required. In addition, we use hierarchical surplus as an error indi- cator to determine adaptive sparse grids. This allows local refinement in the uncertain domain and/or anisotropic detection with respect to the random model parameters, which further improves computational efficiency. Finally, we incorporate a global optimization technique and propose an iterative algorithm for building the surrogate system for the PPDF with multiple significant modes. Once the surrogate system is determined, the PPDF can be evaluated by sampling the surrogate system directly with very little computational cost. The developed method is evaluated first using a simple analytical density function with multiple modes and then using two synthetic groundwater reactive transport models. The groundwater models represent different levels of complexity; the first example involves coupled linear reactions and the second example simulates nonlinear ura- nium surface complexation. The results show that the aSG-hSC is an effective and efficient tool for Bayesian inference in groundwater modeling in comparison with conventional
Dietary adaptations of South African australopiths: inference from enamel prism attitude.
Macho, Gabriele A; Shimizu, Daisuke
2009-09-01
The angle at which enamel prisms approach the wear surface holds information with regard to the stiffness of the tissue, as well as its wear resistance. Hence, analyses of prism orientation may shed light on questions of whether the thick enamel in hominins has evolved to confer stiffness or wear resistance to the teeth and may thus inform about the diet and behavioural ecology of these species. This was explored for Paranthropus robustus and Australopithecus africanus, whereby a distinction was made between prisms at the Phase I and Phase II facets. The results were compared with those obtained for Theropithecus, Macaca, and Potamochoerus for whom behavioural and/or experimental data are available, and were interpreted against simple mechanical principles. The South African hominins differ significantly in their relationships between wear facets and prism angulations. Teeth of P. robustus are better adapted to more vertical loads during mastication (Phase I), whereas those of A. africanus are better adapted to cope with more laterally-directed loads (Phase II) commonly associated with roll-crush and mastication. Overall, teeth of P. robustus appear stiffer, while those of A. africanus seem more wear resistant. PMID:19660781
Kneissler, Jan; Drugowitsch, Jan; Friston, Karl; Butz, Martin V
2015-01-01
Predictive coding appears to be one of the fundamental working principles of brain processing. Amongst other aspects, brains often predict the sensory consequences of their own actions. Predictive coding resembles Kalman filtering, where incoming sensory information is filtered to produce prediction errors for subsequent adaptation and learning. However, to generate prediction errors given motor commands, a suitable temporal forward model is required to generate predictions. While in engineering applications, it is usually assumed that this forward model is known, the brain has to learn it. When filtering sensory input and learning from the residual signal in parallel, a fundamental problem arises: the system can enter a delusional loop when filtering the sensory information using an overly trusted forward model. In this case, learning stalls before accurate convergence because uncertainty about the forward model is not properly accommodated. We present a Bayes-optimal solution to this generic and pernicious problem for the case of linear forward models, which we call Predictive Inference and Adaptive Filtering (PIAF). PIAF filters incoming sensory information and learns the forward model simultaneously. We show that PIAF is formally related to Kalman filtering and to the Recursive Least Squares linear approximation method, but combines these procedures in a Bayes optimal fashion. Numerical evaluations confirm that the delusional loop is precluded and that the learning of the forward model is more than 10-times faster when compared to a naive combination of Kalman filtering and Recursive Least Squares. PMID:25983690
Benner, Philipp; Elze, Tobias
2012-01-01
We present a predictive account on adaptive sequential sampling of stimulus-response relations in psychophysical experiments. Our discussion applies to experimental situations with ordinal stimuli when there is only weak structural knowledge available such that parametric modeling is no option. By introducing a certain form of partial exchangeability, we successively develop a hierarchical Bayesian model based on a mixture of Pólya urn processes. Suitable utility measures permit us to optimize the overall experimental sampling process. We provide several measures that are either based on simple count statistics or more elaborate information theoretic quantities. The actual computation of information theoretic utilities often turns out to be infeasible. This is not the case with our sampling method, which relies on an efficient algorithm to compute exact solutions of our posterior predictions and utility measures. Finally, we demonstrate the advantages of our framework on a hypothetical sampling problem. PMID:22822269
Motion Adaptive Vertical Handoff in Cellular/WLAN Heterogeneous Wireless Network
Ma, Lin; Xu, Yubin; Fu, Yunhai
2014-01-01
In heterogeneous wireless network, vertical handoff plays an important role for guaranteeing quality of service and overall performance of network. Conventional vertical handoff trigger schemes are mostly developed from horizontal handoff in homogeneous cellular network. Basically, they can be summarized as hysteresis-based and dwelling-timer-based algorithms, which are reliable on avoiding unnecessary handoff caused by the terminals dwelling at the edge of WLAN coverage. However, the coverage of WLAN is much smaller compared with cellular network, while the motion types of terminals can be various in a typical outdoor scenario. As a result, traditional algorithms are less effective in avoiding unnecessary handoff triggered by vehicle-borne terminals with various speeds. Besides that, hysteresis and dwelling-timer thresholds usually need to be modified to satisfy different channel environments. For solving this problem, a vertical handoff algorithm based on Q-learning is proposed in this paper. Q-learning can provide the decider with self-adaptive ability for handling the terminals' handoff requests with different motion types and channel conditions. Meanwhile, Neural Fuzzy Inference System (NFIS) is embedded to retain a continuous perception of the state space. Simulation results verify that the proposed algorithm can achieve lower unnecessary handoff probability compared with the other two conventional algorithms. PMID:24741347
Motion adaptive vertical handoff in cellular/WLAN heterogeneous wireless network.
Li, Limin; Ma, Lin; Xu, Yubin; Fu, Yunhai
2014-01-01
In heterogeneous wireless network, vertical handoff plays an important role for guaranteeing quality of service and overall performance of network. Conventional vertical handoff trigger schemes are mostly developed from horizontal handoff in homogeneous cellular network. Basically, they can be summarized as hysteresis-based and dwelling-timer-based algorithms, which are reliable on avoiding unnecessary handoff caused by the terminals dwelling at the edge of WLAN coverage. However, the coverage of WLAN is much smaller compared with cellular network, while the motion types of terminals can be various in a typical outdoor scenario. As a result, traditional algorithms are less effective in avoiding unnecessary handoff triggered by vehicle-borne terminals with various speeds. Besides that, hysteresis and dwelling-timer thresholds usually need to be modified to satisfy different channel environments. For solving this problem, a vertical handoff algorithm based on Q-learning is proposed in this paper. Q-learning can provide the decider with self-adaptive ability for handling the terminals' handoff requests with different motion types and channel conditions. Meanwhile, Neural Fuzzy Inference System (NFIS) is embedded to retain a continuous perception of the state space. Simulation results verify that the proposed algorithm can achieve lower unnecessary handoff probability compared with the other two conventional algorithms. PMID:24741347
Bazin, Eric; Dawson, Kevin J; Beaumont, Mark A
2010-06-01
We address the problem of finding evidence of natural selection from genetic data, accounting for the confounding effects of demographic history. In the absence of natural selection, gene genealogies should all be sampled from the same underlying distribution, often approximated by a coalescent model. Selection at a particular locus will lead to a modified genealogy, and this motivates a number of recent approaches for detecting the effects of natural selection in the genome as "outliers" under some models. The demographic history of a population affects the sampling distribution of genealogies, and therefore the observed genotypes and the classification of outliers. Since we cannot see genealogies directly, we have to infer them from the observed data under some model of mutation and demography. Thus the accuracy of an outlier-based approach depends to a greater or a lesser extent on the uncertainty about the demographic and mutational model. A natural modeling framework for this type of problem is provided by Bayesian hierarchical models, in which parameters, such as mutation rates and selection coefficients, are allowed to vary across loci. It has proved quite difficult computationally to implement fully probabilistic genealogical models with complex demographies, and this has motivated the development of approximations such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). In ABC the data are compressed into summary statistics, and computation of the likelihood function is replaced by simulation of data under the model. In a hierarchical setting one may be interested both in hyperparameters and parameters, and there may be very many of the latter--for example, in a genetic model, these may be parameters describing each of many loci or populations. This poses a problem for ABC in that one then requires summary statistics for each locus, which, if used naively, leads to a consequent difficulty in conditional density estimation. We develop a general method for applying
Gudhka, Reema K.; Neilan, Brett A.; Burns, Brendan P.
2015-01-01
Halococcus hamelinensis was the first archaeon isolated from stromatolites. These geomicrobial ecosystems are thought to be some of the earliest known on Earth, yet, despite their evolutionary significance, the role of Archaea in these systems is still not well understood. Detailed here is the genome sequencing and analysis of an archaeon isolated from stromatolites. The genome of H. hamelinensis consisted of 3,133,046 base pairs with an average G+C content of 60.08% and contained 3,150 predicted coding sequences or ORFs, 2,196 (68.67%) of which were protein-coding genes with functional assignments and 954 (29.83%) of which were of unknown function. Codon usage of the H. hamelinensis genome was consistent with a highly acidic proteome, a major adaptive mechanism towards high salinity. Amino acid transport and metabolism, inorganic ion transport and metabolism, energy production and conversion, ribosomal structure, and unknown function COG genes were overrepresented. The genome of H. hamelinensis also revealed characteristics reflecting its survival in its extreme environment, including putative genes/pathways involved in osmoprotection, oxidative stress response, and UV damage repair. Finally, genome analyses indicated the presence of putative transposases as well as positive matches of genes of H. hamelinensis against various genomes of Bacteria, Archaea, and viruses, suggesting the potential for horizontal gene transfer. PMID:25709556
Gudhka, Reema K; Neilan, Brett A; Burns, Brendan P
2015-01-01
Halococcus hamelinensis was the first archaeon isolated from stromatolites. These geomicrobial ecosystems are thought to be some of the earliest known on Earth, yet, despite their evolutionary significance, the role of Archaea in these systems is still not well understood. Detailed here is the genome sequencing and analysis of an archaeon isolated from stromatolites. The genome of H. hamelinensis consisted of 3,133,046 base pairs with an average G+C content of 60.08% and contained 3,150 predicted coding sequences or ORFs, 2,196 (68.67%) of which were protein-coding genes with functional assignments and 954 (29.83%) of which were of unknown function. Codon usage of the H. hamelinensis genome was consistent with a highly acidic proteome, a major adaptive mechanism towards high salinity. Amino acid transport and metabolism, inorganic ion transport and metabolism, energy production and conversion, ribosomal structure, and unknown function COG genes were overrepresented. The genome of H. hamelinensis also revealed characteristics reflecting its survival in its extreme environment, including putative genes/pathways involved in osmoprotection, oxidative stress response, and UV damage repair. Finally, genome analyses indicated the presence of putative transposases as well as positive matches of genes of H. hamelinensis against various genomes of Bacteria, Archaea, and viruses, suggesting the potential for horizontal gene transfer. PMID:25709556
Kolus, Ahmet; Dubé, Philippe-Antoine; Imbeau, Daniel; Labib, Richard; Dubeau, Denise
2014-11-01
In new approaches based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy systems (ANFIS) and analytical method, heart rate (HR) measurements were used to estimate oxygen consumption (VO2). Thirty-five participants performed Meyer and Flenghi's step-test (eight of which performed regeneration release work), during which heart rate and oxygen consumption were measured. Two individualized models and a General ANFIS model that does not require individual calibration were developed. Results indicated the superior precision achieved with individualized ANFIS modelling (RMSE = 1.0 and 2.8 ml/kg min in laboratory and field, respectively). The analytical model outperformed the traditional linear calibration and Flex-HR methods with field data. The General ANFIS model's estimates of VO2 were not significantly different from actual field VO2 measurements (RMSE = 3.5 ml/kg min). With its ease of use and low implementation cost, the General ANFIS model shows potential to replace any of the traditional individualized methods for VO2 estimation from HR data collected in the field. PMID:24793823
Domestication history and geographical adaptation inferred from a SNP map of African rice.
Meyer, Rachel S; Choi, Jae Young; Sanches, Michelle; Plessis, Anne; Flowers, Jonathan M; Amas, Junrey; Dorph, Katherine; Barretto, Annie; Gross, Briana; Fuller, Dorian Q; Bimpong, Isaac Kofi; Ndjiondjop, Marie-Noelle; Hazzouri, Khaled M; Gregorio, Glenn B; Purugganan, Michael D
2016-09-01
African rice (Oryza glaberrima Steud.) is a cereal crop species closely related to Asian rice (Oryza sativa L.) but was independently domesticated in West Africa ∼3,000 years ago. African rice is rarely grown outside sub-Saharan Africa but is of global interest because of its tolerance to abiotic stresses. Here we describe a map of 2.32 million SNPs of African rice from whole-genome resequencing of 93 landraces. Population genomic analysis shows a population bottleneck in this species that began ∼13,000-15,000 years ago with effective population size reaching its minimum value ∼3,500 years ago, suggesting a protracted period of population size reduction likely commencing with predomestication management and/or cultivation. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for six salt tolerance traits identify 11 significant loci, 4 of which are within ∼300 kb of genomic regions that possess signatures of positive selection, suggesting adaptive geographical divergence for salt tolerance in this species. PMID:27500524
Klein, Nicole; Sander, P. Martin; Krahl, Anna; Scheyer, Torsten M.; Houssaye, Alexandra
2016-01-01
, and possibly sexual dimorphism. Humeral microanatomy documents the diversification of nothosaur species into different environments to avoid intraclade competition as well as competition with other marine reptiles. Nothosaur microanatomy indicates that knowledge of processes involved in secondary aquatic adaptation and their interaction are more complex than previously believed. PMID:27391607
Klein, Nicole; Sander, P Martin; Krahl, Anna; Scheyer, Torsten M; Houssaye, Alexandra
2016-01-01
, and possibly sexual dimorphism. Humeral microanatomy documents the diversification of nothosaur species into different environments to avoid intraclade competition as well as competition with other marine reptiles. Nothosaur microanatomy indicates that knowledge of processes involved in secondary aquatic adaptation and their interaction are more complex than previously believed. PMID:27391607
Amiri, Mohammad J; Abedi-Koupai, Jahangir; Eslamian, Sayed S; Mousavi, Sayed F; Hasheminejad, Hasti
2013-01-01
To evaluate the performance of Adaptive Neural-Based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model in estimating the efficiency of Pb (II) ions removal from aqueous solution by ostrich bone ash, a batch experiment was conducted. Five operational parameters including adsorbent dosage (C(s)), initial concentration of Pb (II) ions (C(o)), initial pH, temperature (T) and contact time (t) were taken as the input data and the adsorption efficiency (AE) of bone ash as the output. Based on the 31 different structures, 5 ANFIS models were tested against the measured adsorption efficiency to assess the accuracy of each model. The results showed that ANFIS5, which used all input parameters, was the most accurate (RMSE = 2.65 and R(2) = 0.95) and ANFIS1, which used only the contact time input, was the worst (RMSE = 14.56 and R(2) = 0.46). In ranking the models, ANFIS4, ANFIS3 and ANFIS2 ranked second, third and fourth, respectively. The sensitivity analysis revealed that the estimated AE is more sensitive to the contact time, followed by pH, initial concentration of Pb (II) ions, adsorbent dosage, and temperature. The results showed that all ANFIS models overestimated the AE. In general, this study confirmed the capabilities of ANFIS model as an effective tool for estimation of AE. PMID:23383640
Jhin, Changho; Hwang, Keum Taek
2014-01-01
Radical scavenging activity of anthocyanins is well known, but only a few studies have been conducted by quantum chemical approach. The adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is an effective technique for solving problems with uncertainty. The purpose of this study was to construct and evaluate quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models for predicting radical scavenging activities of anthocyanins with good prediction efficiency. ANFIS-applied QSAR models were developed by using quantum chemical descriptors of anthocyanins calculated by semi-empirical PM6 and PM7 methods. Electron affinity (A) and electronegativity (χ) of flavylium cation, and ionization potential (I) of quinoidal base were significantly correlated with radical scavenging activities of anthocyanins. These descriptors were used as independent variables for QSAR models. ANFIS models with two triangular-shaped input fuzzy functions for each independent variable were constructed and optimized by 100 learning epochs. The constructed models using descriptors calculated by both PM6 and PM7 had good prediction efficiency with Q-square of 0.82 and 0.86, respectively. PMID:25153627
Jhin, Changho; Hwang, Keum Taek
2015-01-01
One of the physiological characteristics of carotenoids is their radical scavenging activity. In this study, the relationship between radical scavenging activities and quantum chemical descriptors of carotenoids was determined. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) applied quantitative structure-activity relationship models (QSAR) were also developed for predicting and comparing radical scavenging activities of carotenoids. Semi-empirical PM6 and PM7 quantum chemical calculations were done by MOPAC. Ionisation energies of neutral and monovalent cationic carotenoids and the product of chemical potentials of neutral and monovalent cationic carotenoids were significantly correlated with the radical scavenging activities, and consequently these descriptors were used as independent variables for the QSAR study. The ANFIS applied QSAR models were developed with two triangular-shaped input membership functions made for each of the independent variables and optimised by a backpropagation method. High prediction efficiencies were achieved by the ANFIS applied QSAR. The R-square values of the developed QSAR models with the variables calculated by PM6 and PM7 methods were 0.921 and 0.902, respectively. The results of this study demonstrated reliabilities of the selected quantum chemical descriptors and the significance of QSAR models. PMID:26474167
Jhin, Changho; Hwang, Keum Taek
2014-01-01
Radical scavenging activity of anthocyanins is well known, but only a few studies have been conducted by quantum chemical approach. The adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is an effective technique for solving problems with uncertainty. The purpose of this study was to construct and evaluate quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models for predicting radical scavenging activities of anthocyanins with good prediction efficiency. ANFIS-applied QSAR models were developed by using quantum chemical descriptors of anthocyanins calculated by semi-empirical PM6 and PM7 methods. Electron affinity (A) and electronegativity (χ) of flavylium cation, and ionization potential (I) of quinoidal base were significantly correlated with radical scavenging activities of anthocyanins. These descriptors were used as independent variables for QSAR models. ANFIS models with two triangular-shaped input fuzzy functions for each independent variable were constructed and optimized by 100 learning epochs. The constructed models using descriptors calculated by both PM6 and PM7 had good prediction efficiency with Q-square of 0.82 and 0.86, respectively. PMID:25153627
Jhin, Changho; Hwang, Keum Taek
2015-01-01
One of the physiological characteristics of carotenoids is their radical scavenging activity. In this study, the relationship between radical scavenging activities and quantum chemical descriptors of carotenoids was determined. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) applied quantitative structure-activity relationship models (QSAR) were also developed for predicting and comparing radical scavenging activities of carotenoids. Semi-empirical PM6 and PM7 quantum chemical calculations were done by MOPAC. Ionisation energies of neutral and monovalent cationic carotenoids and the product of chemical potentials of neutral and monovalent cationic carotenoids were significantly correlated with the radical scavenging activities, and consequently these descriptors were used as independent variables for the QSAR study. The ANFIS applied QSAR models were developed with two triangular-shaped input membership functions made for each of the independent variables and optimised by a backpropagation method. High prediction efficiencies were achieved by the ANFIS applied QSAR. The R-square values of the developed QSAR models with the variables calculated by PM6 and PM7 methods were 0.921 and 0.902, respectively. The results of this study demonstrated reliabilities of the selected quantum chemical descriptors and the significance of QSAR models. PMID:26474167
Djukanovic, M.B.; Calovic, M.S.; Vesovic, B.V.; Sobajic, D.J.
1997-12-01
This paper presents an attempt of nonlinear, multivariable control of low-head hydropower plants, by using adaptive-network based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The new design technique enhances fuzzy controllers with self-learning capability for achieving prescribed control objectives in a near optimal manner. The controller has flexibility for accepting more sensory information, with the main goal to improve the generator unit transients, by adjusting the exciter input, the wicket gate and runner blade positions. The developed ANFIS controller whose control signals are adjusted by using incomplete on-line measurements, can offer better damping effects to generator oscillations over a wide range of operating conditions, than conventional controllers. Digital simulations of hydropower plant equipped with low-head Kaplan turbine are performed and the comparisons of conventional excitation-governor control, state-feedback optimal control and ANFIS based output feedback control are presented. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme and the robustness of the acquired neuro-fuzzy controller, the controller has been implemented on a complex high-order non-linear hydrogenerator model.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Teimouri, Reza; Sohrabpoor, Hamed
2013-12-01
Electrochemical machining process (ECM) is increasing its importance due to some of the specific advantages which can be exploited during machining operation. The process offers several special privileges such as higher machining rate, better accuracy and control, and wider range of materials that can be machined. Contribution of too many predominate parameters in the process, makes its prediction and selection of optimal values really complex, especially while the process is programmized for machining of hard materials. In the present work in order to investigate effects of electrolyte concentration, electrolyte flow rate, applied voltage and feed rate on material removal rate (MRR) and surface roughness (SR) the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) have been used for creation predictive models based on experimental observations. Then the ANFIS 3D surfaces have been plotted for analyzing effects of process parameters on MRR and SR. Finally, the cuckoo optimization algorithm (COA) was used for selection solutions in which the process reaches maximum material removal rate and minimum surface roughness simultaneously. Results indicated that the ANFIS technique has superiority in modeling of MRR and SR with high prediction accuracy. Also, results obtained while applying of COA have been compared with those derived from confirmatory experiments which validate the applicability and suitability of the proposed techniques in enhancing the performance of ECM process.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Langmore, Ian; Davis, Anthony B.; Bal, Guillaume; Marzouk, Youssef M.
2012-01-01
We describe a method for accelerating a 3D Monte Carlo forward radiative transfer model to the point where it can be used in a new kind of Bayesian retrieval framework. The remote sensing challenge is to detect and quantify a chemical effluent of a known absorbing gas produced by an industrial facility in a deep valley. The available data is a single low resolution noisy image of the scene in the near IR at an absorbing wavelength for the gas of interest. The detected sunlight has been multiply reflected by the variable terrain and/or scattered by an aerosol that is assumed partially known and partially unknown. We thus introduce a new class of remote sensing algorithms best described as "multi-pixel" techniques that call necessarily for a 3D radaitive transfer model (but demonstrated here in 2D); they can be added to conventional ones that exploit typically multi- or hyper-spectral data, sometimes with multi-angle capability, with or without information about polarization. The novel Bayesian inference methodology uses adaptively, with efficiency in mind, the fact that a Monte Carlo forward model has a known and controllable uncertainty depending on the number of sun-to-detector paths used.
Fu, Zening; Chan, Shing-Chow; Di, Xin; Biswal, Bharat; Zhang, Zhiguo
2014-04-01
Time-varying covariance is an important metric to measure the statistical dependence between non-stationary biological processes. Time-varying covariance is conventionally estimated from short-time data segments within a window having a certain bandwidth, but it is difficult to choose an appropriate bandwidth to estimate covariance with different degrees of non-stationarity. This paper introduces a local polynomial regression (LPR) method to estimate time-varying covariance and performs an asymptotic analysis of the LPR covariance estimator to show that both the estimation bias and variance are functions of the bandwidth and there exists an optimal bandwidth to minimize the mean square error (MSE) locally. A data-driven variable bandwidth selection method, namely the intersection of confidence intervals (ICI), is adopted in LPR for adaptively determining the local optimal bandwidth that minimizes the MSE. Experimental results on simulated signals show that the LPR-ICI method can achieve robust and reliable performance in estimating time-varying covariance with different degrees of variations and under different noise scenarios, making it a powerful tool to study the dynamic relationship between non-stationary biomedical signals. Further, we apply the LPR-ICI method to estimate time-varying covariance of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) signals in a visual task for the inference of dynamic functional brain connectivity. The results show that the LPR-ICI method can effectively capture the transient connectivity patterns from fMRI. PMID:24760946
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mekanik, F.; Imteaz, M. A.; Talei, A.
2016-05-01
Accurate seasonal rainfall forecasting is an important step in the development of reliable runoff forecast models. The large scale climate modes affecting rainfall in Australia have recently been proven useful in rainfall prediction problems. In this study, adaptive network-based fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) models are developed for the first time for southeast Australia in order to forecast spring rainfall. The models are applied in east, center and west Victoria as case studies. Large scale climate signals comprising El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Inter-decadal Pacific Ocean (IPO) are selected as rainfall predictors. Eight models are developed based on single climate modes (ENSO, IOD, and IPO) and combined climate modes (ENSO-IPO and ENSO-IOD). Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Pearson correlation coefficient (r) and root mean square error in probability (RMSEP) skill score are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed models. The predictions demonstrate that ANFIS models based on individual IOD index perform superior in terms of RMSE, MAE and r to the models based on individual ENSO indices. It is further discovered that IPO is not an effective predictor for the region and the combined ENSO-IOD and ENSO-IPO predictors did not improve the predictions. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed models a comparison is conducted between ANFIS models and the conventional Artificial Neural Network (ANN), the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) and climatology forecasts. POAMA is the official dynamic model used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The ANFIS predictions certify a superior performance for most of the region compared to ANN and climatology forecasts. POAMA performs better in regards to RMSE and MAE in east and part of central Victoria, however, compared to ANFIS it shows weaker results in west Victoria in terms of prediction errors and RMSEP skill
Azeez, Dhifaf; Ali, Mohd Alauddin Mohd; Gan, Kok Beng; Saiboon, Ismail
2013-01-01
Unexpected disease outbreaks and disasters are becoming primary issues facing our world. The first points of contact either at the disaster scenes or emergency department exposed the frontline workers and medical physicians to the risk of infections. Therefore, there is a persuasive demand for the integration and exploitation of heterogeneous biomedical information to improve clinical practice, medical research and point of care. In this paper, a primary triage model was designed using two different methods: an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and artificial neural network (ANN).When the patient is presented at the triage counter, the system will capture their vital signs and chief complains beside physiology stat and general appearance of the patient. This data will be managed and analyzed in the data server and the patient's emergency status will be reported immediately. The proposed method will help to reduce the queue time at the triage counter and the emergency physician's burden especially duringdisease outbreak and serious disaster. The models have been built with 2223 data set extracted from the Emergency Department of the Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Medical Centre to predict the primary triage category. Multilayer feed forward with one hidden layer having 12 neurons has been used for the ANN architecture. Fuzzy subtractive clustering has been used to find the fuzzy rules for the ANFIS model. The results showed that the RMSE, %RME and the accuracy which evaluated by measuring specificity and sensitivity for binary classificationof the training data were 0.14, 5.7 and 99 respectively for the ANN model and 0.85, 32.00 and 96.00 respectively for the ANFIS model. As for unseen data the root mean square error, percentage the root mean square error and the accuracy for ANN is 0.18, 7.16 and 96.7 respectively, 1.30, 49.84 and 94 respectively for ANFIS model. The ANN model was performed better for both training and unseen data than ANFIS model in
Robson, Barry
2007-08-01
What is the Best Practice for automated inference in Medical Decision Support for personalized medicine? A known system already exists as Dirac's inference system from quantum mechanics (QM) using bra-kets and bras where A and B are states, events, or measurements representing, say, clinical and biomedical rules. Dirac's system should theoretically be the universal best practice for all inference, though QM is notorious as sometimes leading to bizarre conclusions that appear not to be applicable to the macroscopic world of everyday world human experience and medical practice. It is here argued that this apparent difficulty vanishes if QM is assigned one new multiplication function @, which conserves conditionality appropriately, making QM applicable to classical inference including a quantitative form of the predicate calculus. An alternative interpretation with the same consequences is if every i = radical-1 in Dirac's QM is replaced by h, an entity distinct from 1 and i and arguably a hidden root of 1 such that h2 = 1. With that exception, this paper is thus primarily a review of the application of Dirac's system, by application of linear algebra in the complex domain to help manipulate information about associations and ontology in complicated data. Any combined bra-ket can be shown to be composed only of the sum of QM-like bra and ket weights c(), times an exponential function of Fano's mutual information measure I(A; B) about the association between A and B, that is, an association rule from data mining. With the weights and Fano measure re-expressed as expectations on finite data using Riemann's Incomplete (i.e., Generalized) Zeta Functions, actual counts of observations for real world sparse data can be readily utilized. Finally, the paper compares identical character, distinguishability of states events or measurements, correlation, mutual information, and orthogonal character, important issues in data mining
Realities of weather extremes on daily life in urban India - How quantified impacts infer sensible adaptation options
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Reckien, D.
2012-12-01
Emerging and developing economies are currently undergoing one of the profoundest socio-spatial transitions in their history, with strong urbanization and weather extremes bringing about changes in the economy, forms of living and living conditions, but also increasing risks and altered social divides. The impacts of heat waves and strong rain events are therefore differently perceived among urban residents. Addressing the social differences of climate change impacts1 and expanding targeted adaptation options have emerged as urgent policy priorities, particularly for developing and emerging economies2. This paper discusses the perceived impacts of weather-related extreme events on different social groups in New Delhi and Hyderabad, India. Using network statistics and scenario analysis on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) as part of a vulnerability analysis, the investigation provides quantitative and qualitative measures to compare impacts and adaptation strategies for different social groups. Impacts of rain events are stronger than those of heat in both cities and affect the lower income classes particularly. Interestingly, the scenario analysis (comparing altered networks in which the alteration represents a possible adaptation measure) shows that investments in the water infrastructure would be most meaningful and more effective than investments in, e.g., the traffic infrastructure, despite the stronger burden from traffic disruptions and the resulting concentration of planning and policy on traffic ease and investments. The method of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping offers a link between perception and modeling, and the possibility to aggregate and analyze the views of a large number of stakeholders. Our research has shown that planners and politicians often know about many of the problems, but are often overwhelmed by the problems in their respective cities and look for a prioritization of adaptation options. FCM provides this need and identifies priority adaptation options
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Adineh-Vand, A.; Torabi, M.; Roshani, G. H.; Taghipour, M.; Feghhi, S. A. H.; Rezaei, M.; Sadati, S. M.
2013-09-01
This paper presents a soft computing based artificial intelligent technique, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to predict the neutron production rate (NPR) of IR-IECF device in wide discharge current and voltage ranges. A hybrid learning algorithm consists of back-propagation and least-squares estimation is used for training the ANFIS model. The performance of the proposed ANFIS model is tested using the experimental data using four performance measures: correlation coefficient, mean absolute error, mean relative error percentage (MRE%) and root mean square error. The obtained results show that the proposed ANFIS model has achieved good agreement with the experimental results. In comparison to the experimental data the proposed ANFIS model has MRE% <1.53 and 2.85 % for training and testing data respectively. Therefore, this model can be used as an efficient tool to predict the NPR in the IR-IECF device.
Torshabi, Ahmad Esmaili
2014-12-01
In external radiotherapy of dynamic targets such as lung and breast cancers, accurate correlation models are utilized to extract real time tumor position by means of external surrogates in correlation with the internal motion of tumors. In this study, a correlation method based on the neuro-fuzzy model is proposed to correlate the input external motion data with internal tumor motion estimation in real-time mode, due to its robustness in motion tracking. An initial test of the performance of this model was reported in our previous studies. In this work by implementing some modifications it is resulted that ANFIS is still robust to track tumor motion more reliably by reducing the motion estimation error remarkably. After configuring new version of our ANFIS model, its performance was retrospectively tested over ten patients treated with Synchrony Cyberknife system. In order to assess the performance of our model, the predicted tumor motion as model output was compared with respect to the state of the art model. Final analyzed results show that our adaptive neuro-fuzzy model can reduce tumor tracking errors more significantly, as compared with ground truth database and even tumor tracking methods presented in our previous works. PMID:25412886
Stinear, Timothy P.; Seemann, Torsten; Pidot, Sacha; Frigui, Wafa; Reysset, Gilles; Garnier, Thierry; Meurice, Guillaume; Simon, David; Bouchier, Christiane; Ma, Laurence; Tichit, Magali; Porter, Jessica L.; Ryan, Janine; Johnson, Paul D.R.; Davies, John K.; Jenkin, Grant A.; Small, Pamela L.C.; Jones, Louis M.; Tekaia, Fredj; Laval, Françoise; Daffé, Mamadou; Parkhill, Julian; Cole, Stewart T.
2007-01-01
Mycobacterium ulcerans is found in aquatic ecosystems and causes Buruli ulcer in humans, a neglected but devastating necrotic disease of subcutaneous tissue that is rampant throughout West and Central Africa. Here, we report the complete 5.8-Mb genome sequence of M. ulcerans and show that it comprises two circular replicons, a chromosome of 5632 kb and a virulence plasmid of 174 kb. The plasmid is required for production of the polyketide toxin mycolactone, which provokes necrosis. Comparisons with the recently completed 6.6-Mb genome of Mycobacterium marinum revealed >98% nucleotide sequence identity and genome-wide synteny. However, as well as the plasmid, M. ulcerans has accumulated 213 copies of the insertion sequence IS2404, 91 copies of IS2606, 771 pseudogenes, two bacteriophages, and multiple DNA deletions and rearrangements. These data indicate that M. ulcerans has recently evolved via lateral gene transfer and reductive evolution from the generalist, more rapid-growing environmental species M. marinum to become a niche-adapted specialist. Predictions based on genome inspection for the production of modified mycobacterial virulence factors, such as the highly abundant phthiodiolone lipids, were confirmed by structural analyses. Similarly, 11 protein-coding sequences identified as M. ulcerans-specific by comparative genomics were verified as such by PCR screening a diverse collection of 33 strains of M. ulcerans and M. marinum. This work offers significant insight into the biology and evolution of mycobacterial pathogens and is an important component of international efforts to counter Buruli ulcer. PMID:17210928
Aqil, M; Kita, I; Yano, A; Nishiyama, S
2006-01-01
It is widely accepted that an efficient flood alarm system may significantly improve public safety and mitigate economical damages caused by inundations. In this paper, a modified adaptive neuro-fuzzy system is proposed to modify the traditional neuro-fuzzy model. This new method employs a rule-correction based algorithm to replace the error back propagation algorithm that is employed by the traditional neuro-fuzzy method in backward pass calculation. The final value obtained during the backward pass calculation using the rule-correction algorithm is then considered as a mapping function of the learning mechanism of the modified neuro-fuzzy system. Effectiveness of the proposed identification technique is demonstrated through a simulation study on the flood series of the Citarum River in Indonesia. The first four-year data (1987 to 1990) was used for model training/calibration, while the other remaining data (1991 to 2002) was used for testing the model. The number of antecedent flows that should be included in the input variables was determined by two statistical methods, i.e. autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation between the variables. Performance accuracy of the model was evaluated in terms of two statistical indices, i.e. mean average percentage error and root mean square error. The algorithm was developed in a decision support system environment in order to enable users to process the data. The decision support system is found to be useful due to its interactive nature, flexibility in approach, and evolving graphical features, and can be adopted for any similar situation to predict the streamflow. The main data processing includes gauging station selection, input generation, lead-time selection/generation, and length of prediction. This program enables users to process the flood data, to train/test the model using various input options, and to visualize results. The program code consists of a set of files, which can be modified as well to match other
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
King, Gary; Rosen, Ori; Tanner, Martin A.
2004-09-01
This collection of essays brings together a diverse group of scholars to survey the latest strategies for solving ecological inference problems in various fields. The last half-decade has witnessed an explosion of research in ecological inference--the process of trying to infer individual behavior from aggregate data. Although uncertainties and information lost in aggregation make ecological inference one of the most problematic types of research to rely on, these inferences are required in many academic fields, as well as by legislatures and the Courts in redistricting, by business in marketing research, and by governments in policy analysis.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ajay Kumar, M.; Srikanth, N. V.
2014-03-01
In HVDC Light transmission systems, converter control is one of the major fields of present day research works. In this paper, fuzzy logic controller is utilized for controlling both the converters of the space vector pulse width modulation (SVPWM) based HVDC Light transmission systems. Due to its complexity in the rule base formation, an intelligent controller known as adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) controller is also introduced in this paper. The proposed ANFIS controller changes the PI gains automatically for different operating conditions. A hybrid learning method which combines and exploits the best features of both the back propagation algorithm and least square estimation method is used to train the 5-layer ANFIS controller. The performance of the proposed ANFIS controller is compared and validated with the fuzzy logic controller and also with the fixed gain conventional PI controller. The simulations are carried out in the MATLAB/SIMULINK environment. The results reveal that the proposed ANFIS controller is reducing power fluctuations at both the converters. It also improves the dynamic performance of the test power system effectively when tested for various ac fault conditions.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fleischer, Christian; Waag, Wladislaw; Bai, Ziou; Sauer, Dirk Uwe
2013-12-01
The battery management system (BMS) of a battery-electric road vehicle must ensure an optimal operation of the electrochemical storage system to guarantee for durability and reliability. In particular, the BMS must provide precise information about the battery's state-of-functionality, i.e. how much dis-/charging power can the battery accept at current state and condition while at the same time preventing it from operating outside its safe operating area. These critical limits have to be calculated in a predictive manner, which serve as a significant input factor for the supervising vehicle energy management (VEM). The VEM must provide enough power to the vehicle's drivetrain for certain tasks and especially in critical driving situations. Therefore, this paper describes a new approach which can be used for state-of-available-power estimation with respect to lowest/highest cell voltage prediction using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The estimated voltage for a given time frame in the future is directly compared with the actual voltage, verifying the effectiveness and accuracy of a relative voltage prediction error of less than 1%. Moreover, the real-time operating capability of the proposed algorithm was verified on a battery test bench while running on a real-time system performing voltage prediction.
Kolus, Ahmet; Imbeau, Daniel; Dubé, Philippe-Antoine; Dubeau, Denise
2015-09-01
This paper presents a new model based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) to predict oxygen consumption (V˙O2) from easily measured variables. The ANFIS prediction model consists of three ANFIS modules for estimating the Flex-HR parameters. Each module was developed based on clustering a training set of data samples relevant to that module and then the ANFIS prediction model was tested against a validation data set. Fifty-eight participants performed the Meyer and Flenghi step-test, during which heart rate (HR) and V˙O2 were measured. Results indicated no significant difference between observed and estimated Flex-HR parameters and between measured and estimated V˙O2 in the overall HR range, and separately in different HR ranges. The ANFIS prediction model (MAE = 3 ml kg(-1) min(-1)) demonstrated better performance than Rennie et al.'s (MAE = 7 ml kg(-1) min(-1)) and Keytel et al.'s (MAE = 6 ml kg(-1) min(-1)) models, and comparable performance with the standard Flex-HR method (MAE = 2.3 ml kg(-1) min(-1)) throughout the HR range. The ANFIS model thus provides practitioners with a practical, cost- and time-efficient method for V˙O2 estimation without the need for individual calibration. PMID:25959320
Zarei, Kobra; Atabati, Morteza; Kor, Kamalodin
2014-06-01
A quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) was developed to predict the toxicity of substituted benzenes to Tetrahymena pyriformis. A set of 1,497 zero- to three-dimensional descriptors were used for each molecule in the data set. A major problem of QSAR is the high dimensionality of the descriptor space; therefore, descriptor selection is one of the most important steps. In this paper, bee algorithm was used to select the best descriptors. Three descriptors were selected and used as inputs for adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). Then the model was corrected for unstable compounds (the compounds that can be ionized in the aqueous solutions or can easily metabolize under some conditions). Finally squared correlation coefficients were obtained as 0.8769, 0.8649 and 0.8301 for training, test and validation sets, respectively. The results showed bee-ANFIS can be used as a powerful model for prediction of toxicity of substituted benzenes to T. pyriformis. PMID:24638918
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Islam, Tanvir; Srivastava, Prashant K.; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel A.; Dai, Qiang; Han, Dawei; Gupta, Manika
2014-08-01
The authors have investigated an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for the estimation of hydrometeors from the TRMM microwave imager (TMI). The proposed algorithm, named as Hydro-Rain algorithm, is developed in synergy with the TRMM precipitation radar (PR) observed hydrometeor information. The method retrieves rain rates by exploiting the synergistic relations between the TMI and PR observations in twofold steps. First, the fundamental hydrometeor parameters, liquid water path (LWP) and ice water path (IWP), are estimated from the TMI brightness temperatures. Next, the rain rates are estimated from the retrieved hydrometeor parameters (LWP and IWP). A comparison of the hydrometeor retrievals by the Hydro-Rain algorithm is done with the TRMM PR 2A25 and GPROF 2A12 algorithms. The results reveal that the Hydro-Rain algorithm has good skills in estimating hydrometeor paths LWP and IWP, as well as surface rain rate. An examination of the Hydro-Rain algorithm is also conducted on a super typhoon case, in which the Hydro-Rain has shown very good performance in reproducing the typhoon field. Nevertheless, the passive microwave based estimate of hydrometeors appears to suffer in high rain rate regimes, and as the rain rate increases, the discrepancies with hydrometeor estimates tend to increase as well.
Yolmeh, Mahmoud; Habibi Najafi, Mohammad B; Salehi, Fakhreddin
2014-01-01
Annatto is commonly used as a coloring agent in the food industry and has antimicrobial and antioxidant properties. In this study, genetic algorithm-artificial neural network (GA-ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) models were used to predict the effect of annatto dye on Salmonella enteritidis in mayonnaise. The GA-ANN and ANFIS were fed with 3 inputs of annatto dye concentration (0, 0.1, 0.2 and 0.4%), storage temperature (4 and 25°C) and storage time (1-20 days) for prediction of S. enteritidis population. Both models were trained with experimental data. The results showed that the annatto dye was able to reduce of S. enteritidis and its effect was stronger at 25°C than 4°C. The developed GA-ANN, which included 8 hidden neurons, could predict S. enteritidis population with correlation coefficient of 0.999. The overall agreement between ANFIS predictions and experimental data was also very good (r=0.998). Sensitivity analysis results showed that storage temperature was the most sensitive factor for prediction of S. enteritidis population. PMID:24566279
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Heidary, Saeed; Setayeshi, Saeed
2015-01-01
This work presents a simulation based study by Monte Carlo which uses two adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) for cross talk compensation of simultaneous 99mTc/201Tl dual-radioisotope SPECT imaging. We have compared two neuro-fuzzy systems based on fuzzy c-means (FCM) and subtractive (SUB) clustering. Our approach incorporates eight energy-windows image acquisition from 28 keV to 156 keV and two main photo peaks of 201Tl (77±10% keV) and 99mTc (140±10% keV). The Geant4 application in emission tomography (GATE) is used as a Monte Carlo simulator for three cylindrical and a NURBS Based Cardiac Torso (NCAT) phantom study. Three separate acquisitions including two single-isotopes and one dual isotope were performed in this study. Cross talk and scatter corrected projections are reconstructed by an iterative ordered subsets expectation maximization (OSEM) algorithm which models the non-uniform attenuation in the projection/back-projection. ANFIS-FCM/SUB structures are tuned to create three to sixteen fuzzy rules for modeling the photon cross-talk of the two radioisotopes. Applying seven to nine fuzzy rules leads to a total improvement of the contrast and the bias comparatively. It is found that there is an out performance for the ANFIS-FCM due to its acceleration and accurate results.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Woo, Youngkeun; Lee, Juwon; Hwang, Sujin; Hong, Cheol Pyo
2013-03-01
The purpose of this study was to investigate the associations between gait performance, postural stability, and depression in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) by using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). Twenty-two idiopathic PD patients were assessed during outpatient physical therapy by using three clinical tests: the Berg balance scale (BBS), Dynamic gait index (DGI), and Geriatric depression scale (GDS). Scores were determined from clinical observation and patient interviews, and associations among gait performance, postural stability, and depression in this PD population were evaluated. The DGI showed significant positive correlation with the BBS scores, and negative correlation with the GDS score. We assessed the relationship between the BBS score and the DGI results by using a multiple regression analysis. In this case, the GDS score was not significantly associated with the DGI, but the BBS and DGI results were. Strikingly, the ANFIS-estimated value of the DGI, based on the BBS and the GDS scores, significantly correlated with the walking ability determined by using the DGI in patients with Parkinson's disease. These findings suggest that the ANFIS techniques effectively reflect and explain the multidirectional phenomena or conditions of gait performance in patients with PD.
Broom, Donald M
2006-01-01
The term adaptation is used in biology in three different ways. It may refer to changes which occur at the cell and organ level, or at the individual level, or at the level of gene action and evolutionary processes. Adaptation by cells, especially nerve cells helps in: communication within the body, the distinguishing of stimuli, the avoidance of overload and the conservation of energy. The time course and complexity of these mechanisms varies. Adaptive characters of organisms, including adaptive behaviours, increase fitness so this adaptation is evolutionary. The major part of this paper concerns adaptation by individuals and its relationships to welfare. In complex animals, feed forward control is widely used. Individuals predict problems and adapt by acting before the environmental effect is substantial. Much of adaptation involves brain control and animals have a set of needs, located in the brain and acting largely via motivational mechanisms, to regulate life. Needs may be for resources but are also for actions and stimuli which are part of the mechanism which has evolved to obtain the resources. Hence pigs do not just need food but need to be able to carry out actions like rooting in earth or manipulating materials which are part of foraging behaviour. The welfare of an individual is its state as regards its attempts to cope with its environment. This state includes various adaptive mechanisms including feelings and those which cope with disease. The part of welfare which is concerned with coping with pathology is health. Disease, which implies some significant effect of pathology, always results in poor welfare. Welfare varies over a range from very good, when adaptation is effective and there are feelings of pleasure or contentment, to very poor. A key point concerning the concept of individual adaptation in relation to welfare is that welfare may be good or poor while adaptation is occurring. Some adaptation is very easy and energetically cheap and
Stinear, Timothy P; Holt, Kathryn E; Chua, Kyra; Stepnell, Justin; Tuck, Kellie L; Coombs, Geoffrey; Harrison, Paul Francis; Seemann, Torsten; Howden, Benjamin P
2014-02-01
Community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) has emerged as a major public health problem around the world. In Australia, ST93-IV[2B] is the dominant CA-MRSA clone and displays significantly greater virulence than other S. aureus. Here, we have examined the evolution of ST93 via genomic analysis of 12 MSSA and 44 MRSA ST93 isolates, collected from around Australia over a 17-year period. Comparative analysis revealed a core genome of 2.6 Mb, sharing greater than 99.7% nucleotide identity. The accessory genome was 0.45 Mb and comprised additional mobile DNA elements, harboring resistance to erythromycin, trimethoprim, and tetracycline. Phylogenetic inference revealed a molecular clock and suggested that a single clone of methicillin susceptible, Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL) positive, ST93 S. aureus likely spread from North Western Australia in the early 1970s, acquiring methicillin resistance at least twice in the mid 1990s. We also explored associations between genotype and important MRSA phenotypes including oxacillin MIC and production of exotoxins (α-hemolysin [Hla], δ-hemolysin [Hld], PSMα3, and PVL). High-level expression of Hla is a signature feature of ST93 and reduced expression in eight isolates was readily explained by mutations in the agr locus. However, subtle but significant decreases in Hld were also noted over time that coincided with decreasing oxacillin resistance and were independent of agr mutations. The evolution of ST93 S. aureus is thus associated with a reduction in both exotoxin expression and oxacillin MIC, suggesting MRSA ST93 isolates are under pressure for adaptive change. PMID:24482534
Stinear, Timothy P.; Holt, Kathryn E.; Chua, Kyra; Stepnell, Justin; Tuck, Kellie L.; Coombs, Geoffrey; Harrison, Paul Francis; Seemann, Torsten; Howden, Benjamin P.
2014-01-01
Community-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) has emerged as a major public health problem around the world. In Australia, ST93-IV[2B] is the dominant CA-MRSA clone and displays significantly greater virulence than other S. aureus. Here, we have examined the evolution of ST93 via genomic analysis of 12 MSSA and 44 MRSA ST93 isolates, collected from around Australia over a 17-year period. Comparative analysis revealed a core genome of 2.6 Mb, sharing greater than 99.7% nucleotide identity. The accessory genome was 0.45 Mb and comprised additional mobile DNA elements, harboring resistance to erythromycin, trimethoprim, and tetracycline. Phylogenetic inference revealed a molecular clock and suggested that a single clone of methicillin susceptible, Panton-Valentine leukocidin (PVL) positive, ST93 S. aureus likely spread from North Western Australia in the early 1970s, acquiring methicillin resistance at least twice in the mid 1990s. We also explored associations between genotype and important MRSA phenotypes including oxacillin MIC and production of exotoxins (α-hemolysin [Hla], δ-hemolysin [Hld], PSMα3, and PVL). High-level expression of Hla is a signature feature of ST93 and reduced expression in eight isolates was readily explained by mutations in the agr locus. However, subtle but significant decreases in Hld were also noted over time that coincided with decreasing oxacillin resistance and were independent of agr mutations. The evolution of ST93 S. aureus is thus associated with a reduction in both exotoxin expression and oxacillin MIC, suggesting MRSA ST93 isolates are under pressure for adaptive change. PMID:24482534
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Iphar, Melih; Yavuz, Mahmut; Ak, Hakan
2008-11-01
The aim of this study is to predict the peak particle velocity (PPV) values from both presently constructed simple regression model and fuzzy-based model. For this purpose, vibrations induced by bench blasting operations were measured in an open-pit mine operated by the most important magnesite producing company (MAS) in Turkey. After gathering the ordered pairs of distance and PPV values, the site-specific parameters were determined using traditional regression method. Also, an attempt has been made to investigate the applicability of a relatively new soft computing method called as the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to predict PPV. To achieve this objective, data obtained from the blasting measurements were evaluated by constructing an ANFIS-based prediction model. The distance from the blasting site to the monitoring stations and the charge weight per delay were selected as the input parameters of the constructed model, the output parameter being the PPV. Valid for the site, the PPV prediction capability of the constructed ANFIS-based model has proved to be successful in terms of statistical performance indices such as variance account for (VAF), root mean square error (RMSE), standard error of estimation, and correlation between predicted and measured PPV values. Also, using these statistical performance indices, a prediction performance comparison has been made between the presently constructed ANFIS-based model and the classical regression-based prediction method, which has been widely used in the literature. Although the prediction performance of the regression-based model was high, the comparison has indicated that the proposed ANFIS-based model exhibited better prediction performance than the classical regression-based model.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ghaedi, M.; Hosaininia, R.; Ghaedi, A. M.; Vafaei, A.; Taghizadeh, F.
2014-10-01
In this research, a novel adsorbent gold nanoparticle loaded on activated carbon (Au-NP-AC) was synthesized by ultrasound energy as a low cost routing protocol. Subsequently, this novel material characterization and identification followed by different techniques such as scanning electron microscope (SEM), Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) analysis. Unique properties such as high BET surface area (>1229.55 m2/g) and low pore size (<22.46 Å) and average particle size lower than 48.8 Å in addition to high reactive atoms and the presence of various functional groups make it possible for efficient removal of 1,3,4-thiadiazole-2,5-dithiol (TDDT). Generally, the influence of variables, including the amount of adsorbent, initial pollutant concentration, contact time on pollutants removal percentage has great effect on the removal percentage that their influence was optimized. The optimum parameters for adsorption of 1,3,4-thiadiazole-2, 5-dithiol onto gold nanoparticales-activated carbon were 0.02 g adsorbent mass, 10 mg L-1 initial 1,3,4-thiadiazole-2,5-dithiol concentration, 30 min contact time and pH 7. The Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and multiple linear regression (MLR) models, have been applied for prediction of removal of 1,3,4-thiadiazole-2,5-dithiol using gold nanoparticales-activated carbon (Au-NP-AC) in a batch study. The input data are included adsorbent dosage (g), contact time (min) and pollutant concentration (mg/l). The coefficient of determination (R2) and mean squared error (MSE) for the training data set of optimal ANFIS model were achieved to be 0.9951 and 0.00017, respectively. These results show that ANFIS model is capable of predicting adsorption of 1,3,4-thiadiazole-2,5-dithiol using Au-NP-AC with high accuracy in an easy, rapid and cost effective way.
Ghaedi, M; Hosaininia, R; Ghaedi, A M; Vafaei, A; Taghizadeh, F
2014-10-15
In this research, a novel adsorbent gold nanoparticle loaded on activated carbon (Au-NP-AC) was synthesized by ultrasound energy as a low cost routing protocol. Subsequently, this novel material characterization and identification followed by different techniques such as scanning electron microscope(SEM), Brunauer-Emmett-Teller(BET) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) analysis. Unique properties such as high BET surface area (>1229.55m(2)/g) and low pore size (<22.46Å) and average particle size lower than 48.8Å in addition to high reactive atoms and the presence of various functional groups make it possible for efficient removal of 1,3,4-thiadiazole-2,5-dithiol (TDDT). Generally, the influence of variables, including the amount of adsorbent, initial pollutant concentration, contact time on pollutants removal percentage has great effect on the removal percentage that their influence was optimized. The optimum parameters for adsorption of 1,3,4-thiadiazole-2, 5-dithiol onto gold nanoparticales-activated carbon were 0.02g adsorbent mass, 10mgL(-1) initial 1,3,4-thiadiazole-2,5-dithiol concentration, 30min contact time and pH 7. The Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and multiple linear regression (MLR) models, have been applied for prediction of removal of 1,3,4-thiadiazole-2,5-dithiol using gold nanoparticales-activated carbon (Au-NP-AC) in a batch study. The input data are included adsorbent dosage (g), contact time (min) and pollutant concentration (mg/l). The coefficient of determination (R(2)) and mean squared error (MSE) for the training data set of optimal ANFIS model were achieved to be 0.9951 and 0.00017, respectively. These results show that ANFIS model is capable of predicting adsorption of 1,3,4-thiadiazole-2,5-dithiol using Au-NP-AC with high accuracy in an easy, rapid and cost effective way. PMID:24858196
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ghanbari, M.; Najafi, G.; Ghobadian, B.; Mamat, R.; Noor, M. M.; Moosavian, A.
2015-12-01
This paper studies the use of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to predict the performance parameters and exhaust emissions of a diesel engine operating on nanodiesel blended fuels. In order to predict the engine parameters, the whole experimental data were randomly divided into training and testing data. For ANFIS modelling, Gaussian curve membership function (gaussmf) and 200 training epochs (iteration) were found to be optimum choices for training process. The results demonstrate that ANFIS is capable of predicting the diesel engine performance and emissions. In the experimental step, Carbon nano tubes (CNT) (40, 80 and 120 ppm) and nano silver particles (40, 80 and 120 ppm) with nanostructure were prepared and added as additive to the diesel fuel. Six cylinders, four-stroke diesel engine was fuelled with these new blended fuels and operated at different engine speeds. Experimental test results indicated the fact that adding nano particles to diesel fuel, increased diesel engine power and torque output. For nano-diesel it was found that the brake specific fuel consumption (bsfc) was decreased compared to the net diesel fuel. The results proved that with increase of nano particles concentrations (from 40 ppm to 120 ppm) in diesel fuel, CO2 emission increased. CO emission in diesel fuel with nano-particles was lower significantly compared to pure diesel fuel. UHC emission with silver nano-diesel blended fuel decreased while with fuels that contains CNT nano particles increased. The trend of NOx emission was inverse compared to the UHC emission. With adding nano particles to the blended fuels, NOx increased compared to the net diesel fuel. The tests revealed that silver & CNT nano particles can be used as additive in diesel fuel to improve combustion of the fuel and reduce the exhaust emissions significantly.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kentel, E.; Dogulu, N.
2015-12-01
In Turkey the experience and data required for a hydrological model setup is limited and very often not available. Moreover there are many ungauged catchments where there are also many planned projects aimed at utilization of water resources including development of existing hydropower potential. This situation makes runoff prediction at locations with lack of data and ungauged locations where small hydropower plants, reservoirs, etc. are planned an increasingly significant challenge and concern in the country. Flow duration curves have many practical applications in hydrology and integrated water resources management. Estimation of flood duration curve (FDC) at ungauged locations is essential, particularly for hydropower feasibility studies and selection of the installed capacities. In this study, we test and compare the performances of two methods for estimating FDCs in the Western Black Sea catchment, Turkey: (i) FDC based on Map Correlation Method (MCM) flow estimates. MCM is a recently proposed method (Archfield and Vogel, 2010) which uses geospatial information to estimate flow. Flow measurements of stream gauging stations nearby the ungauged location are the only data requirement for this method. This fact makes MCM very attractive for flow estimation in Turkey, (ii) Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) is a data-driven method which is used to relate FDC to a number of variables representing catchment and climate characteristics. However, it`s ease of implementation makes it very useful for practical purposes. Both methods use easily collectable data and are computationally efficient. Comparison of the results is realized based on two different measures: the root mean squared error (RMSE) and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) value. Ref: Archfield, S. A., and R. M. Vogel (2010), Map correlation method: Selection of a reference streamgage to estimate daily streamflow at ungaged catchments, Water Resour. Res., 46, W10513, doi:10.1029/2009WR008481.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Caticha, Ariel
2011-03-01
In this tutorial we review the essential arguments behing entropic inference. We focus on the epistemological notion of information and its relation to the Bayesian beliefs of rational agents. The problem of updating from a prior to a posterior probability distribution is tackled through an eliminative induction process that singles out the logarithmic relative entropy as the unique tool for inference. The resulting method of Maximum relative Entropy (ME), includes as special cases both MaxEnt and Bayes' rule, and therefore unifies the two themes of these workshops—the Maximum Entropy and the Bayesian methods—into a single general inference scheme.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bargatze, L. F.
2015-12-01
Active Data Archive Product Tracking (ADAPT) is a collection of software routines that permits one to generate XML metadata files to describe and register data products in support of the NASA Heliophysics Virtual Observatory VxO effort. ADAPT is also a philosophy. The ADAPT concept is to use any and all available metadata associated with scientific data to produce XML metadata descriptions in a consistent, uniform, and organized fashion to provide blanket access to the full complement of data stored on a targeted data server. In this poster, we present an application of ADAPT to describe all of the data products that are stored by using the Common Data File (CDF) format served out by the CDAWEB and SPDF data servers hosted at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. These data servers are the primary repositories for NASA Heliophysics data. For this purpose, the ADAPT routines have been used to generate data resource descriptions by using an XML schema named Space Physics Archive, Search, and Extract (SPASE). SPASE is the designated standard for documenting Heliophysics data products, as adopted by the Heliophysics Data and Model Consortium. The set of SPASE XML resource descriptions produced by ADAPT includes high-level descriptions of numerical data products, display data products, or catalogs and also includes low-level "Granule" descriptions. A SPASE Granule is effectively a universal access metadata resource; a Granule associates an individual data file (e.g. a CDF file) with a "parent" high-level data resource description, assigns a resource identifier to the file, and lists the corresponding assess URL(s). The CDAWEB and SPDF file systems were queried to provide the input required by the ADAPT software to create an initial set of SPASE metadata resource descriptions. Then, the CDAWEB and SPDF data repositories were queried subsequently on a nightly basis and the CDF file lists were checked for any changes such as the occurrence of new, modified, or deleted
Aggelopoulos, Nikolaos C
2015-08-01
Perceptual inference refers to the ability to infer sensory stimuli from predictions that result from internal neural representations built through prior experience. Methods of Bayesian statistical inference and decision theory model cognition adequately by using error sensing either in guiding action or in "generative" models that predict the sensory information. In this framework, perception can be seen as a process qualitatively distinct from sensation, a process of information evaluation using previously acquired and stored representations (memories) that is guided by sensory feedback. The stored representations can be utilised as internal models of sensory stimuli enabling long term associations, for example in operant conditioning. Evidence for perceptual inference is contributed by such phenomena as the cortical co-localisation of object perception with object memory, the response invariance in the responses of some neurons to variations in the stimulus, as well as from situations in which perception can be dissociated from sensation. In the context of perceptual inference, sensory areas of the cerebral cortex that have been facilitated by a priming signal may be regarded as comparators in a closed feedback loop, similar to the better known motor reflexes in the sensorimotor system. The adult cerebral cortex can be regarded as similar to a servomechanism, in using sensory feedback to correct internal models, producing predictions of the outside world on the basis of past experience. PMID:25976632
Adaptive fuzzy system for 3-D vision
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Mitra, Sunanda
1993-01-01
An adaptive fuzzy system using the concept of the Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) type neural network architecture and incorporating fuzzy c-means (FCM) system equations for reclassification of cluster centers was developed. The Adaptive Fuzzy Leader Clustering (AFLC) architecture is a hybrid neural-fuzzy system which learns on-line in a stable and efficient manner. The system uses a control structure similar to that found in the Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART-1) network to identify the cluster centers initially. The initial classification of an input takes place in a two stage process; a simple competitive stage and a distance metric comparison stage. The cluster prototypes are then incrementally updated by relocating the centroid positions from Fuzzy c-Means (FCM) system equations for the centroids and the membership values. The operational characteristics of AFLC and the critical parameters involved in its operation are discussed. The performance of the AFLC algorithm is presented through application of the algorithm to the Anderson Iris data, and laser-luminescent fingerprint image data. The AFLC algorithm successfully classifies features extracted from real data, discrete or continuous, indicating the potential strength of this new clustering algorithm in analyzing complex data sets. The hybrid neuro-fuzzy AFLC algorithm will enhance analysis of a number of difficult recognition and control problems involved with Tethered Satellite Systems and on-orbit space shuttle attitude controller.
Labarbe, Rudi; Janssens, Guillaume; Sterpin, Edmond
2016-09-01
In proton therapy, quantification of the proton range uncertainty is important to achieve dose distribution compliance. The promising accuracy of prompt gamma imaging (PGI) suggests the development of a mathematical framework using the range measurements to convert population based estimates of uncertainties into patient specific estimates with the purpose of plan adaptation. We present here such framework using Bayesian inference. The sources of uncertainty were modeled by three parameters: setup bias m, random setup precision r and water equivalent path length bias u. The evolution of the expectation values E(m), E(r) and E(u) during the treatment was simulated. The expectation values converged towards the true simulation parameters after 5 and 10 fractions, for E(m) and E(u), respectively. E(r) settle on a constant value slightly lower than the true value after 10 fractions. In conclusion, the simulation showed that there is enough information in the frequency distribution of the range errors measured by PGI to estimate the expectation values and the confidence interval of the model parameters by Bayesian inference. The updated model parameters were used to compute patient specific lateral and local distal margins for adaptive re-planning. PMID:27494118
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Labarbe, Rudi; Janssens, Guillaume; Sterpin, Edmond
2016-09-01
In proton therapy, quantification of the proton range uncertainty is important to achieve dose distribution compliance. The promising accuracy of prompt gamma imaging (PGI) suggests the development of a mathematical framework using the range measurements to convert population based estimates of uncertainties into patient specific estimates with the purpose of plan adaptation. We present here such framework using Bayesian inference. The sources of uncertainty were modeled by three parameters: setup bias m, random setup precision r and water equivalent path length bias u. The evolution of the expectation values E(m), E(r) and E(u) during the treatment was simulated. The expectation values converged towards the true simulation parameters after 5 and 10 fractions, for E(m) and E(u), respectively. E(r) settle on a constant value slightly lower than the true value after 10 fractions. In conclusion, the simulation showed that there is enough information in the frequency distribution of the range errors measured by PGI to estimate the expectation values and the confidence interval of the model parameters by Bayesian inference. The updated model parameters were used to compute patient specific lateral and local distal margins for adaptive re-planning.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
von Toussaint, Udo
2011-07-01
Bayesian inference provides a consistent method for the extraction of information from physics experiments even in ill-conditioned circumstances. The approach provides a unified rationale for data analysis, which both justifies many of the commonly used analysis procedures and reveals some of the implicit underlying assumptions. This review summarizes the general ideas of the Bayesian probability theory with emphasis on the application to the evaluation of experimental data. As case studies for Bayesian parameter estimation techniques examples ranging from extra-solar planet detection to the deconvolution of the apparatus functions for improving the energy resolution and change point estimation in time series are discussed. Special attention is paid to the numerical techniques suited for Bayesian analysis, with a focus on recent developments of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for high-dimensional integration problems. Bayesian model comparison, the quantitative ranking of models for the explanation of a given data set, is illustrated with examples collected from cosmology, mass spectroscopy, and surface physics, covering problems such as background subtraction and automated outlier detection. Additionally the Bayesian inference techniques for the design and optimization of future experiments are introduced. Experiments, instead of being merely passive recording devices, can now be designed to adapt to measured data and to change the measurement strategy on the fly to maximize the information of an experiment. The applied key concepts and necessary numerical tools which provide the means of designing such inference chains and the crucial aspects of data fusion are summarized and some of the expected implications are highlighted.
2012-01-01
Background Understanding demographic histories, such as divergence time, patterns of gene flow, and population size changes, in ecologically diverging lineages provide implications for the process and maintenance of population differentiation by ecological adaptation. This study addressed the demographic histories in two independently derived lineages of flood-resistant riparian plants and their non-riparian relatives [Ainsliaea linearis (riparian) and A. apiculata (non-riparian); A. oblonga (riparian) and A. macroclinidioides (non-riparian); Asteraceae] using an isolation-with-migration (IM) model based on variation at 10 nuclear DNA loci. Results The highest posterior probabilities of the divergence time parameters were estimated to be ca. 25,000 years ago for A. linearis and A. apiculata and ca. 9000 years ago for A. oblonga and A. macroclinidioides, although the confidence intervals of the parameters had broad ranges. The likelihood ratio tests detected evidence of historical gene flow between both riparian/non-riparian species pairs. The riparian populations showed lower levels of genetic diversity and a significant reduction in effective population sizes compared to the non-riparian populations and their ancestral populations. Conclusions This study showed the recent origins of flood-resistant riparian plants, which are remarkable examples of plant ecological adaptation. The recent divergence and genetic signatures of historical gene flow among riparian/non-riparian species implied that they underwent morphological and ecological differentiation within short evolutionary timescales and have maintained their species boundaries in the face of gene flow. Comparative analyses of adaptive divergence in two sets of riparian/non-riparian lineages suggested that strong natural selection by flooding had frequently reduced the genetic diversity and size of riparian populations through genetic drift, possibly leading to fixation of adaptive traits in riparian
Adaptive fuzzy leader clustering of complex data sets in pattern recognition
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Newton, Scott C.; Pemmaraju, Surya; Mitra, Sunanda
1992-01-01
A modular, unsupervised neural network architecture for clustering and classification of complex data sets is presented. The adaptive fuzzy leader clustering (AFLC) architecture is a hybrid neural-fuzzy system that learns on-line in a stable and efficient manner. The initial classification is performed in two stages: a simple competitive stage and a distance metric comparison stage. The cluster prototypes are then incrementally updated by relocating the centroid positions from fuzzy C-means system equations for the centroids and the membership values. The AFLC algorithm is applied to the Anderson Iris data and laser-luminescent fingerprint image data. It is concluded that the AFLC algorithm successfully classifies features extracted from real data, discrete or continuous.
Bailey, Brian W.; Mumey, Brendan; Hargrave, Paul A.; Arendt, Anatol; Ernst, Oliver P.; Hofmann, Klaus Peter; Callis, Patrik R.; Burritt, James B.; Jesaitis, Algirdas J.; Dratz, Edward A.
2003-01-01
Rhodopsin is the best-understood member of the large G protein–coupled receptor (GPCR) superfamily. The G-protein amplification cascade is triggered by poorly understood light-induced conformational changes in rhodopsin that are homologous to changes caused by agonists in other GPCRs. We have applied the "antibody imprint" method to light-activated rhodopsin in native membranes by using nine monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against aqueous faces of rhodopsin. Epitopes recognized by these mAbs were found by selection from random peptide libraries displayed on phage. A new computer algorithm, FINDMAP, was used to map the epitopes to discontinuous segments of rhodopsin that are distant in the primary sequence but are in close spatial proximity in the structure. The proximity of a segment of the N-terminal and the loop between helices VI and VIII found by FINDMAP is consistent with the X-ray structure of the dark-adapted rhodopsin. Epitopes to the cytoplasmic face segregated into two classes with different predicted spatial proximities of protein segments that correlate with different preferences of the antibodies for stabilizing the metarhodopsin I or metarhodopsin II conformations of light-excited rhodopsin. Epitopes of antibodies that stabilize metarhodopsin II indicate conformational changes from dark-adapted rhodopsin, including rearrangements of the C-terminal tail and altered exposure of the cytoplasmic end of helix VI, a portion of the C-3 loop, and helix VIII. As additional antibodies are subjected to antibody imprinting, this approach should provide increasingly detailed information on the conformation of light-excited rhodopsin and be applicable to structural studies of other challenging protein targets. PMID:14573859
Inference from aging information.
de Oliveira, Evaldo Araujo; Caticha, Nestor
2010-06-01
For many learning tasks the duration of the data collection can be greater than the time scale for changes of the underlying data distribution. The question we ask is how to include the information that data are aging. Ad hoc methods to achieve this include the use of validity windows that prevent the learning machine from making inferences based on old data. This introduces the problem of how to define the size of validity windows. In this brief, a new adaptive Bayesian inspired algorithm is presented for learning drifting concepts. It uses the analogy of validity windows in an adaptive Bayesian way to incorporate changes in the data distribution over time. We apply a theoretical approach based on information geometry to the classification problem and measure its performance in simulations. The uncertainty about the appropriate size of the memory windows is dealt with in a Bayesian manner by integrating over the distribution of the adaptive window size. Thus, the posterior distribution of the weights may develop algebraic tails. The learning algorithm results from tracking the mean and variance of the posterior distribution of the weights. It was found that the algebraic tails of this posterior distribution give the learning algorithm the ability to cope with an evolving environment by permitting the escape from local traps. PMID:20421181
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Khoshbin, Fatemeh; Bonakdari, Hossein; Hamed Ashraf Talesh, Seyed; Ebtehaj, Isa; Zaji, Amir Hossein; Azimi, Hamed
2016-06-01
In the present article, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is employed to model the discharge coefficient in rectangular sharp-crested side weirs. The genetic algorithm (GA) is used for the optimum selection of membership functions, while the singular value decomposition (SVD) method helps in computing the linear parameters of the ANFIS results section (GA/SVD-ANFIS). The effect of each dimensionless parameter on discharge coefficient prediction is examined in five different models to conduct sensitivity analysis by applying the above-mentioned dimensionless parameters. Two different sets of experimental data are utilized to examine the models and obtain the best model. The study results indicate that the model designed through GA/SVD-ANFIS predicts the discharge coefficient with a good level of accuracy (mean absolute percentage error = 3.362 and root mean square error = 0.027). Moreover, comparing this method with existing equations and the multi-layer perceptron-artificial neural network (MLP-ANN) indicates that the GA/SVD-ANFIS method has superior performance in simulating the discharge coefficient of side weirs.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Heidary, Saeed; Setayeshi, Saeed; Ghannadi-Maragheh, Mohammad
2014-09-01
The aim of this study is to compare the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and the artificial neural network (ANN) to estimate the cross-talk contamination of 99 m Tc / 201 Tl image acquisition in the 201 Tl energy window (77 ± 15% keV). GATE (Geant4 Application in Emission and Tomography) is employed due to its ability to simulate multiple radioactive sources concurrently. Two kinds of phantoms, including two digital and one physical phantom, are used. In the real and the simulation studies, data acquisition is carried out using eight energy windows. The ANN and the ANFIS are prepared in MATLAB, and the GATE results are used as a training data set. Three indications are evaluated and compared. The ANFIS method yields better outcomes for two indications (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient and contrast) and the two phantom results in each category. The maximum image biasing, which is the third indication, is found to be 6% more than that for the ANN.
Adaptive Importance Sampling for Control and Inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kappen, H. J.; Ruiz, H. C.
2016-03-01
Path integral (PI) control problems are a restricted class of non-linear control problems that can be solved formally as a Feynman-Kac PI and can be estimated using Monte Carlo sampling. In this contribution we review PI control theory in the finite horizon case. We subsequently focus on the problem how to compute and represent control solutions. We review the most commonly used methods in robotics and control. Within the PI theory, the question of how to compute becomes the question of importance sampling. Efficient importance samplers are state feedback controllers and the use of these requires an efficient representation. Learning and representing effective state-feedback controllers for non-linear stochastic control problems is a very challenging, and largely unsolved, problem. We show how to learn and represent such controllers using ideas from the cross entropy method. We derive a gradient descent method that allows to learn feed-back controllers using an arbitrary parametrisation. We refer to this method as the path integral cross entropy method or PICE. We illustrate this method for some simple examples. The PI control methods can be used to estimate the posterior distribution in latent state models. In neuroscience these problems arise when estimating connectivity from neural recording data using EM. We demonstrate the PI control method as an accurate alternative to particle filtering.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Subashini, L.; Vasudevan, M.
2012-02-01
Type 316 LN stainless steel is the major structural material used in the construction of nuclear reactors. Activated flux tungsten inert gas (A-TIG) welding has been developed to increase the depth of penetration because the depth of penetration achievable in single-pass TIG welding is limited. Real-time monitoring and control of weld processes is gaining importance because of the requirement of remoter welding process technologies. Hence, it is essential to develop computational methodologies based on an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) or artificial neural network (ANN) for predicting and controlling the depth of penetration and weld bead width during A-TIG welding of type 316 LN stainless steel. In the current work, A-TIG welding experiments have been carried out on 6-mm-thick plates of 316 LN stainless steel by varying the welding current. During welding, infrared (IR) thermal images of the weld pool have been acquired in real time, and the features have been extracted from the IR thermal images of the weld pool. The welding current values, along with the extracted features such as length, width of the hot spot, thermal area determined from the Gaussian fit, and thermal bead width computed from the first derivative curve were used as inputs, whereas the measured depth of penetration and weld bead width were used as output of the respective models. Accurate ANFIS models have been developed for predicting the depth of penetration and the weld bead width during TIG welding of 6-mm-thick 316 LN stainless steel plates. A good correlation between the measured and predicted values of weld bead width and depth of penetration were observed in the developed models. The performance of the ANFIS models are compared with that of the ANN models.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Akhoondzadeh, M.
2013-09-01
Anomaly detection is extremely important for forecasting the date, location and magnitude of an impending earthquake. In this paper, an Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) has been proposed to detect the thermal and Total Electron Content (TEC) anomalies around the time of the Varzeghan, Iran, (Mw = 6.4) earthquake jolted in 11 August 2012 NW Iran. ANFIS is the famous hybrid neuro-fuzzy network for modeling the non-linear complex systems. In this study, also the detected thermal and TEC anomalies using the proposed method are compared to the results dealing with the observed anomalies by applying the classical and intelligent methods including Interquartile, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) methods. The duration of the dataset which is comprised from Aqua-MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) night-time snapshot images and also Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM), is 62 days. It can be shown that, if the difference between the predicted value using the ANFIS method and the observed value, exceeds the pre-defined threshold value, then the observed precursor value in the absence of non seismic effective parameters could be regarded as precursory anomaly. For two precursors of LST and TEC, the ANFIS method shows very good agreement with the other implemented classical and intelligent methods and this indicates that ANFIS is capable of detecting earthquake anomalies. The applied methods detected anomalous occurrences 1 and 2 days before the earthquake. This paper indicates that the detection of the thermal and TEC anomalies derive their credibility from the overall efficiencies and potentialities of the five integrated methods.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chaudhuri, S.; Das, D.; Goswami, S.; Das, S. K.
2016-02-01
All India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) characteristics play a vital role for the policy planning and national economy of the country. In view of the significant impact of monsoon system on regional as well as global climate systems, accurate prediction of summer monsoon rainfall has become a challenge. The objective of this study is to develop an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for long range forecast of AISMR. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of temperature, zonal and meridional wind at different pressure levels have been taken to construct the input matrix of ANFIS. The membership of the input parameters for AISMR as high, medium or low is estimated with trapezoidal membership function. The fuzzified standardized input parameters and the de-fuzzified target output are trained with artificial neural network models. The forecast of AISMR with ANFIS is compared with non-hybrid multi-layer perceptron model (MLP), radial basis functions network (RBFN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models. The forecast error analyses of the models reveal that ANFIS provides the best forecast of AISMR with minimum prediction error of 0.076, whereas the errors with MLP, RBFN and MLR models are 0.22, 0.18 and 0.73 respectively. During validation with observations, ANFIS shows its potency over the said comparative models. Performance of the ANFIS model is verified through different statistical skill scores, which also confirms the aptitude of ANFIS in forecasting AISMR. The forecast skill of ANFIS is also observed to be better than Climate Forecast System version 2. The real-time forecast with ANFIS shows possibility of deficit (65-75 cm) AISMR in the year 2015.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Finson, Kevin D.
2010-01-01
Learning about what inferences are, and what a good inference is, will help students become more scientifically literate and better understand the nature of science in inquiry. Students in K-4 should be able to give explanations about what they investigate (NSTA 1997) and that includes doing so through inferring. This article provides some tips…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wolpert, David H.
2008-07-01
We show that physical devices that perform observation, prediction, or recollection share an underlying mathematical structure. We call devices with that structure “inference devices”. We present a set of existence and impossibility results concerning inference devices. These results hold independent of the precise physical laws governing our universe. In a limited sense, the impossibility results establish that Laplace was wrong to claim that even in a classical, non-chaotic universe the future can be unerringly predicted, given sufficient knowledge of the present. Alternatively, these impossibility results can be viewed as a non-quantum-mechanical “uncertainty principle”. The mathematics of inference devices has close connections to the mathematics of Turing Machines (TMs). In particular, the impossibility results for inference devices are similar to the Halting theorem for TMs. Furthermore, one can define an analog of Universal TMs (UTMs) for inference devices. We call those analogs “strong inference devices”. We use strong inference devices to define the “inference complexity” of an inference task, which is the analog of the Kolmogorov complexity of computing a string. A task-independent bound is derived on how much the inference complexity of an inference task can differ for two different inference devices. This is analogous to the “encoding” bound governing how much the Kolmogorov complexity of a string can differ between two UTMs used to compute that string. However no universe can contain more than one strong inference device. So whereas the Kolmogorov complexity of a string is arbitrary up to specification of the UTM, there is no such arbitrariness in the inference complexity of an inference task. We informally discuss the philosophical implications of these results, e.g., for whether the universe “is” a computer. We also derive some graph-theoretic properties governing any set of multiple inference devices. We also present an
Intelligent Data Rate Control in Cognitive Mobile Heterogeneous Networks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mar, Jeich; Nien, Hsiao-Chen; Cheng, Jen-Chia
An adaptive rate controller (ARC) based on an adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is designed to autonomously adjust the data rate of a mobile heterogeneous network to adapt to the changing traffic load and the user speed for multimedia call services. The effect of user speed on the handoff rate is considered. Through simulations, it has been demonstrated that the ANFIS-ARC is able to maintain new call blocking probability and handoff failure probability of the mobile heterogeneous network below a prescribed low level over different user speeds and new call origination rates while optimizing the average throughput. It has also been shown that the mobile cognitive wireless network with the proposed CS-ANFIS-ARC protocol can support more traffic load than neural fuzzy call-admission and rate controller (NFCRC) protocol.
Exploring Beginning Inference with Novice Grade 7 Students
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Watson, Jane M.
2008-01-01
This study documented efforts to facilitate ideas of beginning inference in novice grade 7 students. A design experiment allowed modified teaching opportunities in light of observation of components of a framework adapted from that developed by Pfannkuch for teaching informal inference with box plots. Box plots were replaced by hat plots, a…
Petrov, S.
1996-10-01
Languages with a solvable implication problem but without complete and consistent systems of inference rules (`poor` languages) are considered. The problem of existence of finite complete and consistent inference rule system for a ``poor`` language is stated independently of the language or rules syntax. Several properties of the problem arc proved. An application of results to the language of join dependencies is given.
Parameter inference with estimated covariance matrices
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sellentin, Elena; Heavens, Alan F.
2016-02-01
When inferring parameters from a Gaussian-distributed data set by computing a likelihood, a covariance matrix is needed that describes the data errors and their correlations. If the covariance matrix is not known a priori, it may be estimated and thereby becomes a random object with some intrinsic uncertainty itself. We show how to infer parameters in the presence of such an estimated covariance matrix, by marginalizing over the true covariance matrix, conditioned on its estimated value. This leads to a likelihood function that is no longer Gaussian, but rather an adapted version of a multivariate t-distribution, which has the same numerical complexity as the multivariate Gaussian. As expected, marginalization over the true covariance matrix improves inference when compared with Hartlap et al.'s method, which uses an unbiased estimate of the inverse covariance matrix but still assumes that the likelihood is Gaussian.
Hanson, K.M.; Cunningham, G.S.
1996-04-01
The authors are developing a computer application, called the Bayes Inference Engine, to provide the means to make inferences about models of physical reality within a Bayesian framework. The construction of complex nonlinear models is achieved by a fully object-oriented design. The models are represented by a data-flow diagram that may be manipulated by the analyst through a graphical programming environment. Maximum a posteriori solutions are achieved using a general, gradient-based optimization algorithm. The application incorporates a new technique of estimating and visualizing the uncertainties in specific aspects of the model.
Reinforcement learning or active inference?
Friston, Karl J; Daunizeau, Jean; Kiebel, Stefan J
2009-01-01
This paper questions the need for reinforcement learning or control theory when optimising behaviour. We show that it is fairly simple to teach an agent complicated and adaptive behaviours using a free-energy formulation of perception. In this formulation, agents adjust their internal states and sampling of the environment to minimize their free-energy. Such agents learn causal structure in the environment and sample it in an adaptive and self-supervised fashion. This results in behavioural policies that reproduce those optimised by reinforcement learning and dynamic programming. Critically, we do not need to invoke the notion of reward, value or utility. We illustrate these points by solving a benchmark problem in dynamic programming; namely the mountain-car problem, using active perception or inference under the free-energy principle. The ensuing proof-of-concept may be important because the free-energy formulation furnishes a unified account of both action and perception and may speak to a reappraisal of the role of dopamine in the brain. PMID:19641614
Reinforcement Learning or Active Inference?
Friston, Karl J.; Daunizeau, Jean; Kiebel, Stefan J.
2009-01-01
This paper questions the need for reinforcement learning or control theory when optimising behaviour. We show that it is fairly simple to teach an agent complicated and adaptive behaviours using a free-energy formulation of perception. In this formulation, agents adjust their internal states and sampling of the environment to minimize their free-energy. Such agents learn causal structure in the environment and sample it in an adaptive and self-supervised fashion. This results in behavioural policies that reproduce those optimised by reinforcement learning and dynamic programming. Critically, we do not need to invoke the notion of reward, value or utility. We illustrate these points by solving a benchmark problem in dynamic programming; namely the mountain-car problem, using active perception or inference under the free-energy principle. The ensuing proof-of-concept may be important because the free-energy formulation furnishes a unified account of both action and perception and may speak to a reappraisal of the role of dopamine in the brain. PMID:19641614
KENNETH M. HANSON; JANE M. BOOKER
2000-09-08
The authors an uncertainty analysis of data taken using the Rossi technique, in which the horizontal oscilloscope sweep is driven sinusoidally in time ,while the vertical axis follows the signal amplitude. The analysis is done within a Bayesian framework. Complete inferences are obtained by tilting the Markov chain Monte Carlo technique, which produces random samples from the posterior probability distribution expressed in terms of the parameters.
Active inference and learning.
Friston, Karl; FitzGerald, Thomas; Rigoli, Francesco; Schwartenbeck, Philipp; O'Doherty, John; Pezzulo, Giovanni
2016-09-01
This paper offers an active inference account of choice behaviour and learning. It focuses on the distinction between goal-directed and habitual behaviour and how they contextualise each other. We show that habits emerge naturally (and autodidactically) from sequential policy optimisation when agents are equipped with state-action policies. In active inference, behaviour has explorative (epistemic) and exploitative (pragmatic) aspects that are sensitive to ambiguity and risk respectively, where epistemic (ambiguity-resolving) behaviour enables pragmatic (reward-seeking) behaviour and the subsequent emergence of habits. Although goal-directed and habitual policies are usually associated with model-based and model-free schemes, we find the more important distinction is between belief-free and belief-based schemes. The underlying (variational) belief updating provides a comprehensive (if metaphorical) process theory for several phenomena, including the transfer of dopamine responses, reversal learning, habit formation and devaluation. Finally, we show that active inference reduces to a classical (Bellman) scheme, in the absence of ambiguity. PMID:27375276
Inverse Ising inference with correlated samples
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Obermayer, Benedikt; Levine, Erel
2014-12-01
Correlations between two variables of a high-dimensional system can be indicative of an underlying interaction, but can also result from indirect effects. Inverse Ising inference is a method to distinguish one from the other. Essentially, the parameters of the least constrained statistical model are learned from the observed correlations such that direct interactions can be separated from indirect correlations. Among many other applications, this approach has been helpful for protein structure prediction, because residues which interact in the 3D structure often show correlated substitutions in a multiple sequence alignment. In this context, samples used for inference are not independent but share an evolutionary history on a phylogenetic tree. Here, we discuss the effects of correlations between samples on global inference. Such correlations could arise due to phylogeny but also via other slow dynamical processes. We present a simple analytical model to address the resulting inference biases, and develop an exact method accounting for background correlations in alignment data by combining phylogenetic modeling with an adaptive cluster expansion algorithm. We find that popular reweighting schemes are only marginally effective at removing phylogenetic bias, suggest a rescaling strategy that yields better results, and provide evidence that our conclusions carry over to the frequently used mean-field approach to the inverse Ising problem.
Towards Context Sensitive Information Inference.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Song, D.; Bruza, P. D.
2003-01-01
Discusses information inference from a psychologistic stance and proposes an information inference mechanism that makes inferences via computations of information flow through an approximation of a conceptual space. Highlights include cognitive economics of information processing; context sensitivity; and query models for information retrieval.…
Inference in high-dimensional parameter space.
O'Hare, Anthony
2015-11-01
Model parameter inference has become increasingly popular in recent years in the field of computational epidemiology, especially for models with a large number of parameters. Techniques such as Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) or maximum/partial likelihoods are commonly used to infer parameters in phenomenological models that best describe some set of data. These techniques rely on efficient exploration of the underlying parameter space, which is difficult in high dimensions, especially if there are correlations between the parameters in the model that may not be known a priori. The aim of this article is to demonstrate the use of the recently invented Adaptive Metropolis algorithm for exploring parameter space in a practical way through the use of a simple epidemiological model. PMID:26176624
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wheeler, Kevin; Timucin, Dogan; Rabbette, Maura; Curry, Charles; Allan, Mark; Lvov, Nikolay; Clanton, Sam; Pilewskie, Peter
2002-01-01
The goal of visual inference programming is to develop a software framework data analysis and to provide machine learning algorithms for inter-active data exploration and visualization. The topics include: 1) Intelligent Data Understanding (IDU) framework; 2) Challenge problems; 3) What's new here; 4) Framework features; 5) Wiring diagram; 6) Generated script; 7) Results of script; 8) Initial algorithms; 9) Independent Component Analysis for instrument diagnosis; 10) Output sensory mapping virtual joystick; 11) Output sensory mapping typing; 12) Closed-loop feedback mu-rhythm control; 13) Closed-loop training; 14) Data sources; and 15) Algorithms. This paper is in viewgraph form.
Circular inferences in schizophrenia.
Jardri, Renaud; Denève, Sophie
2013-11-01
A considerable number of recent experimental and computational studies suggest that subtle impairments of excitatory to inhibitory balance or regulation are involved in many neurological and psychiatric conditions. The current paper aims to relate, specifically and quantitatively, excitatory to inhibitory imbalance with psychotic symptoms in schizophrenia. Considering that the brain constructs hierarchical causal models of the external world, we show that the failure to maintain the excitatory to inhibitory balance results in hallucinations as well as in the formation and subsequent consolidation of delusional beliefs. Indeed, the consequence of excitatory to inhibitory imbalance in a hierarchical neural network is equated to a pathological form of causal inference called 'circular belief propagation'. In circular belief propagation, bottom-up sensory information and top-down predictions are reverberated, i.e. prior beliefs are misinterpreted as sensory observations and vice versa. As a result, these predictions are counted multiple times. Circular inference explains the emergence of erroneous percepts, the patient's overconfidence when facing probabilistic choices, the learning of 'unshakable' causal relationships between unrelated events and a paradoxical immunity to perceptual illusions, which are all known to be associated with schizophrenia. PMID:24065721
Moment inference from tomograms
Day-Lewis, F. D.; Chen, Y.; Singha, K.
2007-01-01
Time-lapse geophysical tomography can provide valuable qualitative insights into hydrologic transport phenomena associated with aquifer dynamics, tracer experiments, and engineered remediation. Increasingly, tomograms are used to infer the spatial and/or temporal moments of solute plumes; these moments provide quantitative information about transport processes (e.g., advection, dispersion, and rate-limited mass transfer) and controlling parameters (e.g., permeability, dispersivity, and rate coefficients). The reliability of moments calculated from tomograms is, however, poorly understood because classic approaches to image appraisal (e.g., the model resolution matrix) are not directly applicable to moment inference. Here, we present a semi-analytical approach to construct a moment resolution matrix based on (1) the classic model resolution matrix and (2) image reconstruction from orthogonal moments. Numerical results for radar and electrical-resistivity imaging of solute plumes demonstrate that moment values calculated from tomograms depend strongly on plume location within the tomogram, survey geometry, regularization criteria, and measurement error. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.
BIE: Bayesian Inference Engine
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weinberg, Martin D.
2013-12-01
The Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE) is an object-oriented library of tools written in C++ designed explicitly to enable Bayesian update and model comparison for astronomical problems. To facilitate "what if" exploration, BIE provides a command line interface (written with Bison and Flex) to run input scripts. The output of the code is a simulation of the Bayesian posterior distribution from which summary statistics e.g. by taking moments, or determine confidence intervals and so forth, can be determined. All of these quantities are fundamentally integrals and the Markov Chain approach produces variates heta distributed according to P( heta|D) so moments are trivially obtained by summing of the ensemble of variates.
Bayesian inference in geomagnetism
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Backus, George E.
1988-01-01
The inverse problem in empirical geomagnetic modeling is investigated, with critical examination of recently published studies. Particular attention is given to the use of Bayesian inference (BI) to select the damping parameter lambda in the uniqueness portion of the inverse problem. The mathematical bases of BI and stochastic inversion are explored, with consideration of bound-softening problems and resolution in linear Gaussian BI. The problem of estimating the radial magnetic field B(r) at the earth core-mantle boundary from surface and satellite measurements is then analyzed in detail, with specific attention to the selection of lambda in the studies of Gubbins (1983) and Gubbins and Bloxham (1985). It is argued that the selection method is inappropriate and leads to lambda values much larger than those that would result if a reasonable bound on the heat flow at the CMB were assumed.
Bayes factors and multimodel inference
Link, W.A.; Barker, R.J.
2009-01-01
Multimodel inference has two main themes: model selection, and model averaging. Model averaging is a means of making inference conditional on a model set, rather than on a selected model, allowing formal recognition of the uncertainty associated with model choice. The Bayesian paradigm provides a natural framework for model averaging, and provides a context for evaluation of the commonly used AIC weights. We review Bayesian multimodel inference, noting the importance of Bayes factors. Noting the sensitivity of Bayes factors to the choice of priors on parameters, we define and propose nonpreferential priors as offering a reasonable standard for objective multimodel inference.
Evolutionary inferences from the analysis of exchangeability
Hendry, Andrew P.; Kaeuffer, Renaud; Crispo, Erika; Peichel, Catherine L.; Bolnick, Daniel I.
2013-01-01
Evolutionary inferences are usually based on statistical models that compare mean genotypes and phenotypes (or their frequencies) among populations. An alternative is to use the actual distribution of genotypes and phenotypes to infer the “exchangeability” of individuals among populations. We illustrate this approach by using discriminant functions on principal components to classify individuals among paired lake and stream populations of threespine stickleback in each of six independent watersheds. Classification based on neutral and non-neutral microsatellite markers was highest to the population of origin and next-highest to populations in the same watershed. These patterns are consistent with the influence of historical contingency (separate colonization of each watershed) and subsequent gene flow (within but not between watersheds). In comparison to this low genetic exchangeability, ecological (diet) and morphological (trophic and armor traits) exchangeability was relatively high – particularly among populations from similar habitats. These patterns reflect the role of natural selection in driving parallel changes adaptive changes when independent populations colonize similar habitats. Importantly, however, substantial non-parallelism was also evident. Our results show that analyses based on exchangeability can confirm inferences based on statistical analyses of means or frequencies, while also refining insights into the drivers of – and constraints on – evolutionary diversification. PMID:24299398
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Diergarten, Anna Katharina; Nieding, Gerhild
2015-01-01
Two studies examined inferences drawn about the protagonist's emotional state in movies (Study 1) or audiobooks (Study 2). Children aged 5, 8, and 10 years old and adults took part. Participants saw or heard 20 movie scenes or sections of audiobooks taken or adapted from the TV show Lassie. An online measure of emotional inference was designed…
Causal Inference in Retrospective Studies.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Holland, Paul W.; Rubin, Donald B.
1988-01-01
The problem of drawing causal inferences from retrospective case-controlled studies is considered. A model for causal inference in prospective studies is applied to retrospective studies. Limitations of case-controlled studies are formulated concerning relevant parameters that can be estimated in such studies. A coffee-drinking/myocardial…
Improving Inferences from Multiple Methods.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Shotland, R. Lance; Mark, Melvin M.
1987-01-01
Multiple evaluation methods (MEMs) can cause an inferential challenge, although there are strategies to strengthen inferences. Practical and theoretical issues involved in the use by social scientists of MEMs, three potential problems in drawing inferences from MEMs, and short- and long-term strategies for alleviating these problems are outlined.…
Causal Inference and Developmental Psychology
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Foster, E. Michael
2010-01-01
Causal inference is of central importance to developmental psychology. Many key questions in the field revolve around improving the lives of children and their families. These include identifying risk factors that if manipulated in some way would foster child development. Such a task inherently involves causal inference: One wants to know whether…
Learning to Observe "and" Infer
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Hanuscin, Deborah L.; Park Rogers, Meredith A.
2008-01-01
Researchers describe the need for students to have multiple opportunities and social interaction to learn about the differences between observation and inference and their role in developing scientific explanations (Harlen 2001; Simpson 2000). Helping children develop their skills of observation and inference in science while emphasizing the…
INFERRING THE ECCENTRICITY DISTRIBUTION
Hogg, David W.; Bovy, Jo; Myers, Adam D.
2010-12-20
Standard maximum-likelihood estimators for binary-star and exoplanet eccentricities are biased high, in the sense that the estimated eccentricity tends to be larger than the true eccentricity. As with most non-trivial observables, a simple histogram of estimated eccentricities is not a good estimate of the true eccentricity distribution. Here, we develop and test a hierarchical probabilistic method for performing the relevant meta-analysis, that is, inferring the true eccentricity distribution, taking as input the likelihood functions for the individual star eccentricities, or samplings of the posterior probability distributions for the eccentricities (under a given, uninformative prior). The method is a simple implementation of a hierarchical Bayesian model; it can also be seen as a kind of heteroscedastic deconvolution. It can be applied to any quantity measured with finite precision-other orbital parameters, or indeed any astronomical measurements of any kind, including magnitudes, distances, or photometric redshifts-so long as the measurements have been communicated as a likelihood function or a posterior sampling.
Inferring the Eccentricity Distribution
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hogg, David W.; Myers, Adam D.; Bovy, Jo
2010-12-01
Standard maximum-likelihood estimators for binary-star and exoplanet eccentricities are biased high, in the sense that the estimated eccentricity tends to be larger than the true eccentricity. As with most non-trivial observables, a simple histogram of estimated eccentricities is not a good estimate of the true eccentricity distribution. Here, we develop and test a hierarchical probabilistic method for performing the relevant meta-analysis, that is, inferring the true eccentricity distribution, taking as input the likelihood functions for the individual star eccentricities, or samplings of the posterior probability distributions for the eccentricities (under a given, uninformative prior). The method is a simple implementation of a hierarchical Bayesian model; it can also be seen as a kind of heteroscedastic deconvolution. It can be applied to any quantity measured with finite precision—other orbital parameters, or indeed any astronomical measurements of any kind, including magnitudes, distances, or photometric redshifts—so long as the measurements have been communicated as a likelihood function or a posterior sampling.
Social Inference Through Technology
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Oulasvirta, Antti
Awareness cues are computer-mediated, real-time indicators of people’s undertakings, whereabouts, and intentions. Already in the mid-1970 s, UNIX users could use commands such as “finger” and “talk” to find out who was online and to chat. The small icons in instant messaging (IM) applications that indicate coconversants’ presence in the discussion space are the successors of “finger” output. Similar indicators can be found in online communities, media-sharing services, Internet relay chat (IRC), and location-based messaging applications. But presence and availability indicators are only the tip of the iceberg. Technological progress has enabled richer, more accurate, and more intimate indicators. For example, there are mobile services that allow friends to query and follow each other’s locations. Remote monitoring systems developed for health care allow relatives and doctors to assess the wellbeing of homebound patients (see, e.g., Tang and Venables 2000). But users also utilize cues that have not been deliberately designed for this purpose. For example, online gamers pay attention to other characters’ behavior to infer what the other players are like “in real life.” There is a common denominator underlying these examples: shared activities rely on the technology’s representation of the remote person. The other human being is not physically present but present only through a narrow technological channel.
Graphical Models and Computerized Adaptive Testing.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Almond, Russell G.; Mislevy, Robert J.
1999-01-01
Considers computerized adaptive testing from the perspective of graphical modeling (GM). GM provides methods for making inferences about multifaceted skills and knowledge and for extracting data from complex performances. Provides examples from language-proficiency assessment. (SLD)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Loredo, Thomas J.
2004-04-01
I describe a framework for adaptive scientific exploration based on iterating an Observation-Inference-Design cycle that allows adjustment of hypotheses and observing protocols in response to the results of observation on-the-fly, as data are gathered. The framework uses a unified Bayesian methodology for the inference and design stages: Bayesian inference to quantify what we have learned from the available data and predict future data, and Bayesian decision theory to identify which new observations would teach us the most. When the goal of the experiment is simply to make inferences, the framework identifies a computationally efficient iterative ``maximum entropy sampling'' strategy as the optimal strategy in settings where the noise statistics are independent of signal properties. Results of applying the method to two ``toy'' problems with simulated data-measuring the orbit of an extrasolar planet, and locating a hidden one-dimensional object-show the approach can significantly improve observational efficiency in settings that have well-defined nonlinear models. I conclude with a list of open issues that must be addressed to make Bayesian adaptive exploration a practical and reliable tool for optimizing scientific exploration.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bazzazi, Abbas Aghajani; Esmaeili, Mohammad
2012-12-01
Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is powerful model in solving complex problems. Since ANFIS has the potential of solving nonlinear problem and can easily achieve the input-output mapping, it is perfect to be used for solving the predicting problem. Backbreak is one of the undesirable effects of blasting operations causing instability in mine walls, falling down the machinery, improper fragmentation and reduction in efficiency of drilling. In this paper, ANFIS was applied to predict backbreak in Sangan iron mine of Iran. The performance of the model was assessed through the root mean squared error (RMSE), the variance account for (VAF) and the correlation coefficient (
Unified inference for sparse and dense longitudinal models.
Kim, Seonjin; Zhao, Zhibiao
2013-03-01
In longitudinal data analysis, statistical inference for sparse data and dense data could be substantially different. For kernel smoothing estimate of the mean function, the convergence rates and limiting variance functions are different under the two scenarios. The latter phenomenon poses challenges for statistical inference as a subjective choice between the sparse and dense cases may lead to wrong conclusions. We develop self-normalization based methods that can adapt to the sparse and dense cases in a unified framework. Simulations show that the proposed methods outperform some existing methods. PMID:24966413
Ensemble Inference and Inferability of Gene Regulatory Networks
Ud-Dean, S. M. Minhaz; Gunawan, Rudiyanto
2014-01-01
The inference of gene regulatory network (GRN) from gene expression data is an unsolved problem of great importance. This inference has been stated, though not proven, to be underdetermined implying that there could be many equivalent (indistinguishable) solutions. Motivated by this fundamental limitation, we have developed new framework and algorithm, called TRaCE, for the ensemble inference of GRNs. The ensemble corresponds to the inherent uncertainty associated with discriminating direct and indirect gene regulations from steady-state data of gene knock-out (KO) experiments. We applied TRaCE to analyze the inferability of random GRNs and the GRNs of E. coli and yeast from single- and double-gene KO experiments. The results showed that, with the exception of networks with very few edges, GRNs are typically not inferable even when the data are ideal (unbiased and noise-free). Finally, we compared the performance of TRaCE with top performing methods of DREAM4 in silico network inference challenge. PMID:25093509
Bayesian Inference: with ecological applications
Link, William A.; Barker, Richard J.
2010-01-01
This text provides a mathematically rigorous yet accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference with relevant examples that will be of interest to biologists working in the fields of ecology, wildlife management and environmental studies as well as students in advanced undergraduate statistics.. This text opens the door to Bayesian inference, taking advantage of modern computational efficiencies and easily accessible software to evaluate complex hierarchical models.
Active inference, communication and hermeneutics.
Friston, Karl J; Frith, Christopher D
2015-07-01
Hermeneutics refers to interpretation and translation of text (typically ancient scriptures) but also applies to verbal and non-verbal communication. In a psychological setting it nicely frames the problem of inferring the intended content of a communication. In this paper, we offer a solution to the problem of neural hermeneutics based upon active inference. In active inference, action fulfils predictions about how we will behave (e.g., predicting we will speak). Crucially, these predictions can be used to predict both self and others--during speaking and listening respectively. Active inference mandates the suppression of prediction errors by updating an internal model that generates predictions--both at fast timescales (through perceptual inference) and slower timescales (through perceptual learning). If two agents adopt the same model, then--in principle--they can predict each other and minimise their mutual prediction errors. Heuristically, this ensures they are singing from the same hymn sheet. This paper builds upon recent work on active inference and communication to illustrate perceptual learning using simulated birdsongs. Our focus here is the neural hermeneutics implicit in learning, where communication facilitates long-term changes in generative models that are trying to predict each other. In other words, communication induces perceptual learning and enables others to (literally) change our minds and vice versa. PMID:25957007
Causal inference and developmental psychology.
Foster, E Michael
2010-11-01
Causal inference is of central importance to developmental psychology. Many key questions in the field revolve around improving the lives of children and their families. These include identifying risk factors that if manipulated in some way would foster child development. Such a task inherently involves causal inference: One wants to know whether the risk factor actually causes outcomes. Random assignment is not possible in many instances, and for that reason, psychologists must rely on observational studies. Such studies identify associations, and causal interpretation of such associations requires additional assumptions. Research in developmental psychology generally has relied on various forms of linear regression, but this methodology has limitations for causal inference. Fortunately, methodological developments in various fields are providing new tools for causal inference-tools that rely on more plausible assumptions. This article describes the limitations of regression for causal inference and describes how new tools might offer better causal inference. This discussion highlights the importance of properly identifying covariates to include (and exclude) from the analysis. This discussion considers the directed acyclic graph for use in accomplishing this task. With the proper covariates having been chosen, many of the available methods rely on the assumption of "ignorability." The article discusses the meaning of ignorability and considers alternatives to this assumption, such as instrumental variables estimation. Finally, the article considers the use of the tools discussed in the context of a specific research question, the effect of family structure on child development. PMID:20677855
Active inference, communication and hermeneutics☆
Friston, Karl J.; Frith, Christopher D.
2015-01-01
Hermeneutics refers to interpretation and translation of text (typically ancient scriptures) but also applies to verbal and non-verbal communication. In a psychological setting it nicely frames the problem of inferring the intended content of a communication. In this paper, we offer a solution to the problem of neural hermeneutics based upon active inference. In active inference, action fulfils predictions about how we will behave (e.g., predicting we will speak). Crucially, these predictions can be used to predict both self and others – during speaking and listening respectively. Active inference mandates the suppression of prediction errors by updating an internal model that generates predictions – both at fast timescales (through perceptual inference) and slower timescales (through perceptual learning). If two agents adopt the same model, then – in principle – they can predict each other and minimise their mutual prediction errors. Heuristically, this ensures they are singing from the same hymn sheet. This paper builds upon recent work on active inference and communication to illustrate perceptual learning using simulated birdsongs. Our focus here is the neural hermeneutics implicit in learning, where communication facilitates long-term changes in generative models that are trying to predict each other. In other words, communication induces perceptual learning and enables others to (literally) change our minds and vice versa. PMID:25957007
Optimal inference with suboptimal models: Addiction and active Bayesian inference
Schwartenbeck, Philipp; FitzGerald, Thomas H.B.; Mathys, Christoph; Dolan, Ray; Wurst, Friedrich; Kronbichler, Martin; Friston, Karl
2015-01-01
When casting behaviour as active (Bayesian) inference, optimal inference is defined with respect to an agent’s beliefs – based on its generative model of the world. This contrasts with normative accounts of choice behaviour, in which optimal actions are considered in relation to the true structure of the environment – as opposed to the agent’s beliefs about worldly states (or the task). This distinction shifts an understanding of suboptimal or pathological behaviour away from aberrant inference as such, to understanding the prior beliefs of a subject that cause them to behave less ‘optimally’ than our prior beliefs suggest they should behave. Put simply, suboptimal or pathological behaviour does not speak against understanding behaviour in terms of (Bayes optimal) inference, but rather calls for a more refined understanding of the subject’s generative model upon which their (optimal) Bayesian inference is based. Here, we discuss this fundamental distinction and its implications for understanding optimality, bounded rationality and pathological (choice) behaviour. We illustrate our argument using addictive choice behaviour in a recently described ‘limited offer’ task. Our simulations of pathological choices and addictive behaviour also generate some clear hypotheses, which we hope to pursue in ongoing empirical work. PMID:25561321
Fuzzy exemplar-based inference system for flood forecasting
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chang, Li-Chiu; Chang, Fi-John; Tsai, Ya-Hsin
2005-02-01
Fuzzy inference systems have been successfully applied in numerous fields since they can effectively model human knowledge and adaptively make decision processes. In this paper we present an innovative fuzzy exemplar-based inference system (FEIS) for flood forecasting. The FEIS is based on a fuzzy inference system, with its clustering ability enhanced through the Exemplar-Aided Constructor of Hyper-rectangles algorithm, which can effectively simulate human intelligence by learning from experience. The FEIS exhibits three important properties: knowledge extraction from numerical data, knowledge (rule) modeling, and fuzzy reasoning processes. The proposed model is employed to predict streamflow 1 hour ahead during flood events in the Lan-Yang River, Taiwan. For the purpose of comparison the back propagation neural network (BPNN) is also performed. The results show that the FEIS model performs better than the BPNN. The FEIS provides a great learning ability, robustness, and high predictive accuracy for flood forecasting.
cosmoabc: Likelihood-free inference for cosmology
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ishida, Emille E. O.; Vitenti, Sandro D. P.; Penna-Lima, Mariana; Trindade, Arlindo M.; Cisewski, Jessi; M.; de Souza, Rafael; Cameron, Ewan; Busti, Vinicius C.
2015-05-01
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) enables parameter inference for complex physical systems in cases where the true likelihood function is unknown, unavailable, or computationally too expensive. It relies on the forward simulation of mock data and comparison between observed and synthetic catalogs. cosmoabc is a Python Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) sampler featuring a Population Monte Carlo variation of the original ABC algorithm, which uses an adaptive importance sampling scheme. The code can be coupled to an external simulator to allow incorporation of arbitrary distance and prior functions. When coupled with the numcosmo library, it has been used to estimate posterior probability distributions over cosmological parameters based on measurements of galaxy clusters number counts without computing the likelihood function.
Receptive Field Inference with Localized Priors
Park, Mijung; Pillow, Jonathan W.
2011-01-01
The linear receptive field describes a mapping from sensory stimuli to a one-dimensional variable governing a neuron's spike response. However, traditional receptive field estimators such as the spike-triggered average converge slowly and often require large amounts of data. Bayesian methods seek to overcome this problem by biasing estimates towards solutions that are more likely a priori, typically those with small, smooth, or sparse coefficients. Here we introduce a novel Bayesian receptive field estimator designed to incorporate locality, a powerful form of prior information about receptive field structure. The key to our approach is a hierarchical receptive field model that flexibly adapts to localized structure in both spacetime and spatiotemporal frequency, using an inference method known as empirical Bayes. We refer to our method as automatic locality determination (ALD), and show that it can accurately recover various types of smooth, sparse, and localized receptive fields. We apply ALD to neural data from retinal ganglion cells and V1 simple cells, and find it achieves error rates several times lower than standard estimators. Thus, estimates of comparable accuracy can be achieved with substantially less data. Finally, we introduce a computationally efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for fully Bayesian inference under the ALD prior, yielding accurate Bayesian confidence intervals for small or noisy datasets. PMID:22046110
Design-based and model-based inference in surveys of freshwater mollusks
Dorazio, R.M.
1999-01-01
Well-known concepts in statistical inference and sampling theory are used to develop recommendations for planning and analyzing the results of quantitative surveys of freshwater mollusks. Two methods of inference commonly used in survey sampling (design-based and model-based) are described and illustrated using examples relevant in surveys of freshwater mollusks. The particular objectives of a survey and the type of information observed in each unit of sampling can be used to help select the sampling design and the method of inference. For example, the mean density of a sparsely distributed population of mollusks can be estimated with higher precision by using model-based inference or by using design-based inference with adaptive cluster sampling than by using design-based inference with conventional sampling. More experience with quantitative surveys of natural assemblages of freshwater mollusks is needed to determine the actual benefits of different sampling designs and inferential procedures.
Statistical inference and string theory
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Heckman, Jonathan J.
2015-09-01
In this paper, we expose some surprising connections between string theory and statistical inference. We consider a large collective of agents sweeping out a family of nearby statistical models for an M-dimensional manifold of statistical fitting parameters. When the agents making nearby inferences align along a d-dimensional grid, we find that the pooled probability that the collective reaches a correct inference is the partition function of a nonlinear sigma model in d dimensions. Stability under perturbations to the original inference scheme requires the agents of the collective to distribute along two dimensions. Conformal invariance of the sigma model corresponds to the condition of a stable inference scheme, directly leading to the Einstein field equations for classical gravity. By summing over all possible arrangements of the agents in the collective, we reach a string theory. We also use this perspective to quantify how much an observer can hope to learn about the internal geometry of a superstring compactification. Finally, we present some brief speculative remarks on applications to the AdS/CFT correspondence and Lorentzian signature space-times.
Computerized Adaptive Mastery Tests as Expert Systems.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Frick, Theodore W.
1992-01-01
Discussion of expert systems and computerized adaptive tests describes two versions of EXSPRT, a new approach that combines uncertain inference in expert systems with sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) stopping rules. Results of two studies comparing EXSPRT to adaptive mastery testing based on item response theory and SPRT approaches are…
Thermodynamics of cellular statistical inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lang, Alex; Fisher, Charles; Mehta, Pankaj
2014-03-01
Successful organisms must be capable of accurately sensing the surrounding environment in order to locate nutrients and evade toxins or predators. However, single cell organisms face a multitude of limitations on their accuracy of sensing. Berg and Purcell first examined the canonical example of statistical limitations to cellular learning of a diffusing chemical and established a fundamental limit to statistical accuracy. Recent work has shown that the Berg and Purcell learning limit can be exceeded using Maximum Likelihood Estimation. Here, we recast the cellular sensing problem as a statistical inference problem and discuss the relationship between the efficiency of an estimator and its thermodynamic properties. We explicitly model a single non-equilibrium receptor and examine the constraints on statistical inference imposed by noisy biochemical networks. Our work shows that cells must balance sample number, specificity, and energy consumption when performing statistical inference. These tradeoffs place significant constraints on the practical implementation of statistical estimators in a cell.
Causal inference from observational data.
Listl, Stefan; Jürges, Hendrik; Watt, Richard G
2016-10-01
Randomized controlled trials have long been considered the 'gold standard' for causal inference in clinical research. In the absence of randomized experiments, identification of reliable intervention points to improve oral health is often perceived as a challenge. But other fields of science, such as social science, have always been challenged by ethical constraints to conducting randomized controlled trials. Methods have been established to make causal inference using observational data, and these methods are becoming increasingly relevant in clinical medicine, health policy and public health research. This study provides an overview of state-of-the-art methods specifically designed for causal inference in observational data, including difference-in-differences (DiD) analyses, instrumental variables (IV), regression discontinuity designs (RDD) and fixed-effects panel data analysis. The described methods may be particularly useful in dental research, not least because of the increasing availability of routinely collected administrative data and electronic health records ('big data'). PMID:27111146
Schirillo, James A
2013-10-01
In studies of lightness and color constancy, the terms lightness and brightness refer to the qualia corresponding to perceived surface reflectance and perceived luminance, respectively. However, what has rarely been considered is the fact that the volume of space containing surfaces appears neither empty, void, nor black, but filled with light. Helmholtz (1866/1962) came closest to describing this phenomenon when discussing inferred illumination, but previous theoretical treatments have fallen short by restricting their considerations to the surfaces of objects. The present work is among the first to explore how we infer the light present in empty space. It concludes with several research examples supporting the theory that humans can infer the differential levels and chromaticities of illumination in three-dimensional space. PMID:23435628
Intracranial EEG correlates of implicit relational inference within the hippocampus.
Reber, T P; Do Lam, A T A; Axmacher, N; Elger, C E; Helmstaedter, C; Henke, K; Fell, J
2016-01-01
Drawing inferences from past experiences enables adaptive behavior in future situations. Inference has been shown to depend on hippocampal processes. Usually, inference is considered a deliberate and effortful mental act which happens during retrieval, and requires the focus of our awareness. Recent fMRI studies hint at the possibility that some forms of hippocampus-dependent inference can also occur during encoding and possibly also outside of awareness. Here, we sought to further explore the feasibility of hippocampal implicit inference, and specifically address the temporal evolution of implicit inference using intracranial EEG. Presurgical epilepsy patients with hippocampal depth electrodes viewed a sequence of word pairs, and judged the semantic fit between two words in each pair. Some of the word pairs entailed a common word (e.g., "winter-red," "red-cat") such that an indirect relation was established in following word pairs (e.g., "winter-cat"). The behavioral results suggested that drawing inference implicitly from past experience is feasible because indirect relations seemed to foster "fit" judgments while the absence of indirect relations fostered "do not fit" judgments, even though the participants were unaware of the indirect relations. A event-related potential (ERP) difference emerging 400 ms post-stimulus was evident in the hippocampus during encoding, suggesting that indirect relations were already established automatically during encoding of the overlapping word pairs. Further ERP differences emerged later post-stimulus (1,500 ms), were modulated by the participants' responses and were evident during encoding and test. Furthermore, response-locked ERP effects were evident at test. These ERP effects could hence be a correlate of the interaction of implicit memory with decision-making. Together, the data map out a time-course in which the hippocampus automatically integrates memories from discrete but related episodes to implicitly influence future
Eight challenges in phylodynamic inference
Frost, Simon D.W.; Pybus, Oliver G.; Gog, Julia R.; Viboud, Cecile; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian; Bedford, Trevor
2015-01-01
The field of phylodynamics, which attempts to enhance our understanding of infectious disease dynamics using pathogen phylogenies, has made great strides in the past decade. Basic epidemiological and evolutionary models are now well characterized with inferential frameworks in place. However, significant challenges remain in extending phylodynamic inference to more complex systems. These challenges include accounting for evolutionary complexities such as changing mutation rates, selection, reassortment, and recombination, as well as epidemiological complexities such as stochastic population dynamics, host population structure, and different patterns at the within-host and between-host scales. An additional challenge exists in making efficient inferences from an ever increasing corpus of sequence data. PMID:25843391
Inferring biotic interactions from proxies.
Morales-Castilla, Ignacio; Matias, Miguel G; Gravel, Dominique; Araújo, Miguel B
2015-06-01
Inferring biotic interactions from functional, phylogenetic and geographical proxies remains one great challenge in ecology. We propose a conceptual framework to infer the backbone of biotic interaction networks within regional species pools. First, interacting groups are identified to order links and remove forbidden interactions between species. Second, additional links are removed by examination of the geographical context in which species co-occur. Third, hypotheses are proposed to establish interaction probabilities between species. We illustrate the framework using published food-webs in terrestrial and marine systems. We conclude that preliminary descriptions of the web of life can be made by careful integration of data with theory. PMID:25922148
Science Shorts: Observation versus Inference
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Leager, Craig R.
2008-01-01
When you observe something, how do you know for sure what you are seeing, feeling, smelling, or hearing? Asking students to think critically about their encounters with the natural world will help to strengthen their understanding and application of the science-process skills of observation and inference. In the following lesson, students make…
Sample Size and Correlational Inference
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Anderson, Richard B.; Doherty, Michael E.; Friedrich, Jeff C.
2008-01-01
In 4 studies, the authors examined the hypothesis that the structure of the informational environment makes small samples more informative than large ones for drawing inferences about population correlations. The specific purpose of the studies was to test predictions arising from the signal detection simulations of R. B. Anderson, M. E. Doherty,…
Word Learning as Bayesian Inference
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Xu, Fei; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.
2007-01-01
The authors present a Bayesian framework for understanding how adults and children learn the meanings of words. The theory explains how learners can generalize meaningfully from just one or a few positive examples of a novel word's referents, by making rational inductive inferences that integrate prior knowledge about plausible word meanings with…
The mechanisms of temporal inference
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Fox, B. R.; Green, S. R.
1987-01-01
The properties of a temporal language are determined by its constituent elements: the temporal objects which it can represent, the attributes of those objects, the relationships between them, the axioms which define the default relationships, and the rules which define the statements that can be formulated. The methods of inference which can be applied to a temporal language are derived in part from a small number of axioms which define the meaning of equality and order and how those relationships can be propagated. More complex inferences involve detailed analysis of the stated relationships. Perhaps the most challenging area of temporal inference is reasoning over disjunctive temporal constraints. Simple forms of disjunction do not sufficiently increase the expressive power of a language while unrestricted use of disjunction makes the analysis NP-hard. In many cases a set of disjunctive constraints can be converted to disjunctive normal form and familiar methods of inference can be applied to the conjunctive sub-expressions. This process itself is NP-hard but it is made more tractable by careful expansion of a tree-structured search space.
Perceptual Inference and Autistic Traits
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Skewes, Joshua C; Jegindø, Else-Marie; Gebauer, Line
2015-01-01
Autistic people are better at perceiving details. Major theories explain this in terms of bottom-up sensory mechanisms or in terms of top-down cognitive biases. Recently, it has become possible to link these theories within a common framework. This framework assumes that perception is implicit neural inference, combining sensory evidence with…
Improving Explanatory Inferences from Assessments
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Diakow, Ronli Phyllis
2013-01-01
This dissertation comprises three papers that propose, discuss, and illustrate models to make improved inferences about research questions regarding student achievement in education. Addressing the types of questions common in educational research today requires three different "extensions" to traditional educational assessment: (1)…
Wai, Rong-Jong; Yang, Zhi-Wei
2008-10-01
This paper focuses on the development of adaptive fuzzy neural network control (AFNNC), including indirect and direct frameworks for an n-link robot manipulator, to achieve high-precision position tracking. In general, it is difficult to adopt a model-based design to achieve this control objective due to the uncertainties in practical applications, such as friction forces, external disturbances, and parameter variations. In order to cope with this problem, an indirect AFNNC (IAFNNC) scheme and a direct AFNNC (DAFNNC) strategy are investigated without the requirement of prior system information. In these model-free control topologies, a continuous-time Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) dynamic fuzzy model with online learning ability is constructed to represent the system dynamics of an n-link robot manipulator. In the IAFNNC, an FNN estimator is designed to tune the nonlinear dynamic function vector in fuzzy local models, and then, the estimative vector is used to indirectly develop a stable IAFNNC law. In the DAFNNC, an FNN controller is directly designed to imitate a predetermined model-based stabilizing control law, and then, the stable control performance can be achieved by only using joint position information. All the IAFNNC and DAFNNC laws and the corresponding adaptive tuning algorithms for FNN weights are established in the sense of Lyapunov stability analyses to ensure the stable control performance. Numerical simulations and experimental results of a two-link robot manipulator actuated by dc servomotors are given to verify the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed methodologies. In addition, the superiority of the proposed control schemes is indicated in comparison with proportional-differential control, fuzzy-model-based control, T-S-type FNN control, and robust neural fuzzy network control systems. PMID:18784015
Evolutionary genetics of plant adaptation
Anderson, Jill T.; Willis, John H.; Mitchell-Olds, Thomas
2011-01-01
Plants provide unique opportunities to study the mechanistic basis and evolutionary processes of adaptation to diverse environmental conditions. Complementary laboratory and field experiments are important for testing hypothesis reflecting long term ecological and evolutionary history. For example, these approaches can infer whether local adaptation results from genetic tradeoffs (antagonistic pleiotropy), where native alleles are best adapted to local conditions, or if local adaptation is caused by conditional neutrality at many loci, where alleles show fitness differences in one environment, but not in the contrasting environment. Ecological genetics in natural populations of perennial or outcrossing plants also may differ substantially from model systems. In this review of the evolutionary genetics of plant adaptation, we emphasize the importance of field studies for understanding the evolutionary dynamics of model and non-model systems, highlight a key life history trait (flowering time), and discuss emerging conservation issues. PMID:21550682
Reentry vehicle adaptive telemetry
Kidner, R.E.
1993-09-01
In RF telemetry (TM) the allowable RF bandwidth limits the amount of data in the telemetered data set. Typically the data set is less than ideal to accommodate all aspects of a test. In the case of diagnostic data, the compromise often leaves insufficient diagnostic data when problems occur. As a solution, intelligence was designed into a TM, allowing it to adapt to changing data requirements. To minimize the computational requirements for an intelligent TM, a fuzzy logic inference engine was developed. This reference engine was simulated on a PC and then loaded into a TM hardware package for final testing.
Bayesian Inference on Proportional Elections
Brunello, Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe; Nakano, Eduardo Yoshio
2015-01-01
Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software. PMID:25786259
Bayesian inference on proportional elections.
Brunello, Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe; Nakano, Eduardo Yoshio
2015-01-01
Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software. PMID:25786259
System Support for Forensic Inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gehani, Ashish; Kirchner, Florent; Shankar, Natarajan
Digital evidence is playing an increasingly important role in prosecuting crimes. The reasons are manifold: financially lucrative targets are now connected online, systems are so complex that vulnerabilities abound and strong digital identities are being adopted, making audit trails more useful. If the discoveries of forensic analysts are to hold up to scrutiny in court, they must meet the standard for scientific evidence. Software systems are currently developed without consideration of this fact. This paper argues for the development of a formal framework for constructing “digital artifacts” that can serve as proxies for physical evidence; a system so imbued would facilitate sound digital forensic inference. A case study involving a filesystem augmentation that provides transparent support for forensic inference is described.
Statistical learning and selective inference
Taylor, Jonathan; Tibshirani, Robert J.
2015-01-01
We describe the problem of “selective inference.” This addresses the following challenge: Having mined a set of data to find potential associations, how do we properly assess the strength of these associations? The fact that we have “cherry-picked”—searched for the strongest associations—means that we must set a higher bar for declaring significant the associations that we see. This challenge becomes more important in the era of big data and complex statistical modeling. The cherry tree (dataset) can be very large and the tools for cherry picking (statistical learning methods) are now very sophisticated. We describe some recent new developments in selective inference and illustrate their use in forward stepwise regression, the lasso, and principal components analysis. PMID:26100887
Network Plasticity as Bayesian Inference
Legenstein, Robert; Maass, Wolfgang
2015-01-01
General results from statistical learning theory suggest to understand not only brain computations, but also brain plasticity as probabilistic inference. But a model for that has been missing. We propose that inherently stochastic features of synaptic plasticity and spine motility enable cortical networks of neurons to carry out probabilistic inference by sampling from a posterior distribution of network configurations. This model provides a viable alternative to existing models that propose convergence of parameters to maximum likelihood values. It explains how priors on weight distributions and connection probabilities can be merged optimally with learned experience, how cortical networks can generalize learned information so well to novel experiences, and how they can compensate continuously for unforeseen disturbances of the network. The resulting new theory of network plasticity explains from a functional perspective a number of experimental data on stochastic aspects of synaptic plasticity that previously appeared to be quite puzzling. PMID:26545099
Causal inference based on counterfactuals
Höfler, M
2005-01-01
Background The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. Discussion This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. Summary Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept. PMID:16159397
Daniels, Bryan C.; Nemenman, Ilya
2015-01-01
The nonlinearity of dynamics in systems biology makes it hard to infer them from experimental data. Simple linear models are computationally efficient, but cannot incorporate these important nonlinearities. An adaptive method based on the S-system formalism, which is a sensible representation of nonlinear mass-action kinetics typically found in cellular dynamics, maintains the efficiency of linear regression. We combine this approach with adaptive model selection to obtain efficient and parsimonious representations of cellular dynamics. The approach is tested by inferring the dynamics of yeast glycolysis from simulated data. With little computing time, it produces dynamical models with high predictive power and with structural complexity adapted to the difficulty of the inference problem. PMID:25806510
Self-enforcing Private Inference Control
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Yanjiang; Li, Yingjiu; Weng, Jian; Zhou, Jianying; Bao, Feng
Private inference control enables simultaneous enforcement of inference control and protection of users' query privacy. Private inference control is a useful tool for database applications, especially when users are increasingly concerned about individual privacy nowadays. However, protection of query privacy on top of inference control is a double-edged sword: without letting the database server know the content of user queries, users can easily launch DoS attacks. To assuage DoS attacks in private inference control, we propose the concept of self-enforcing private inference control, whose intuition is to force users to only make inference-free queries by enforcing inference control themselves; otherwise, penalty will inflict upon the violating users.
Bayesian inference for Markov jump processes with informative observations.
Golightly, Andrew; Wilkinson, Darren J
2015-04-01
In this paper we consider the problem of parameter inference for Markov jump process (MJP) representations of stochastic kinetic models. Since transition probabilities are intractable for most processes of interest yet forward simulation is straightforward, Bayesian inference typically proceeds through computationally intensive methods such as (particle) MCMC. Such methods ostensibly require the ability to simulate trajectories from the conditioned jump process. When observations are highly informative, use of the forward simulator is likely to be inefficient and may even preclude an exact (simulation based) analysis. We therefore propose three methods for improving the efficiency of simulating conditioned jump processes. A conditioned hazard is derived based on an approximation to the jump process, and used to generate end-point conditioned trajectories for use inside an importance sampling algorithm. We also adapt a recently proposed sequential Monte Carlo scheme to our problem. Essentially, trajectories are reweighted at a set of intermediate time points, with more weight assigned to trajectories that are consistent with the next observation. We consider two implementations of this approach, based on two continuous approximations of the MJP. We compare these constructs for a simple tractable jump process before using them to perform inference for a Lotka-Volterra system. The best performing construct is used to infer the parameters governing a simple model of motility regulation in Bacillus subtilis. PMID:25720091
Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management where knowledge is incomplete, and when, despite inherent uncertainty, managers and policymakers must act. Unlike a traditional trial and error approach, adaptive managem...
Neuronal integration of dynamic sources: Bayesian learning and Bayesian inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Siegelmann, Hava T.; Holzman, Lars E.
2010-09-01
One of the brain's most basic functions is integrating sensory data from diverse sources. This ability causes us to question whether the neural system is computationally capable of intelligently integrating data, not only when sources have known, fixed relative dependencies but also when it must determine such relative weightings based on dynamic conditions, and then use these learned weightings to accurately infer information about the world. We suggest that the brain is, in fact, fully capable of computing this parallel task in a single network and describe a neural inspired circuit with this property. Our implementation suggests the possibility that evidence learning requires a more complex organization of the network than was previously assumed, where neurons have different specialties, whose emergence brings the desired adaptivity seen in human online inference.
Impact of nonignorable coarsening on Bayesian inference.
Zhang, Jiameng; Heitjan, Daniel F
2007-10-01
The coarse data model of Heitjan and Rubin (1991) generalizes the missing data model of Rubin (1976) to cover other forms of incompleteness such as censoring and grouping. The model has 2 components: an ideal data model describing the distribution of the quantity of interest and a coarsening mechanism that describes a distribution over degrees of coarsening given the ideal data. The coarsening mechanism is said to be nonignorable when the degree of coarsening depends on an incompletely observed ideal outcome, in which case failure to properly account for it can spoil inferences. A theme in recent research is to measure sensitivity to nonignorability by evaluating the effect of a small departure from ignorability on the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of a parameter of the ideal data model. One such construct is the "index of local sensitivity to nonignorability" (ISNI) (Troxel and others, 2004), which is the derivative of the MLE with respect to a nonignorability parameter evaluated at the ignorable model. In this paper, we adapt ISNI to Bayesian modeling by instead defining it as the derivative of the posterior expectation. We propose the application of ISNI as a first step in judging the robustness of a Bayesian analysis to nonignorable coarsening. We derive formulas for a range of models and apply the method to evaluate sensitivity to nonignorable coarsening in 2 real data examples, one involving missing CD4 counts in an HIV trial and the other involving potentially informatively censored relapse times in a leukemia trial. PMID:17215331
Bell's theorem, inference, and quantum transactions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Garrett, A. J. M.
1990-04-01
Bell's theorem is expounded as an analysis in Bayesian inference. Assuming the result of a spin measurement on a particle is governed by a causal variable internal (hidden, “local”) to the particle, one learns about it by making a spin measurement; thence about the internal variable of a second particle correlated with the first; and from there predicts the probabilistic result of spin measurements on the second particle. Such predictions are violated by experiment: locality/causality fails. The statistical nature of the observations rules out signalling; acausal, superluminal, or otherwise. Quantum mechanics is irrelevant to this reasoning, although its correct predictions of experiment imply that it has a nonlocal/acausal interpretation. Cramer's new transactional interpretation, which incorporates this feature by adapting the Wheeler-Feynman idea of advanced and retarded processes to the quantum laws, is advocated. It leads to an invaluable way of envisaging quantum processes. The usual paradoxes melt before this, and one, the “delayed choice” experiment, is chosen for detailed inspection. Nonlocality implies practical difficulties in influencing hidden variables, which provides a very plausible explanation for why they have not yet been found; from this standpoint, Bell's theorem reinforces arguments in favor of hidden variables.
sick: The Spectroscopic Inference Crank
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Casey, Andrew R.
2016-03-01
There exists an inordinate amount of spectral data in both public and private astronomical archives that remain severely under-utilized. The lack of reliable open-source tools for analyzing large volumes of spectra contributes to this situation, which is poised to worsen as large surveys successively release orders of magnitude more spectra. In this article I introduce sick, the spectroscopic inference crank, a flexible and fast Bayesian tool for inferring astrophysical parameters from spectra. sick is agnostic to the wavelength coverage, resolving power, or general data format, allowing any user to easily construct a generative model for their data, regardless of its source. sick can be used to provide a nearest-neighbor estimate of model parameters, a numerically optimized point estimate, or full Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability distributions. This generality empowers any astronomer to capitalize on the plethora of published synthetic and observed spectra, and make precise inferences for a host of astrophysical (and nuisance) quantities. Model intensities can be reliably approximated from existing grids of synthetic or observed spectra using linear multi-dimensional interpolation, or a Cannon-based model. Additional phenomena that transform the data (e.g., redshift, rotational broadening, continuum, spectral resolution) are incorporated as free parameters and can be marginalized away. Outlier pixels (e.g., cosmic rays or poorly modeled regimes) can be treated with a Gaussian mixture model, and a noise model is included to account for systematically underestimated variance. Combining these phenomena into a scalar-justified, quantitative model permits precise inferences with credible uncertainties on noisy data. I describe the common model features, the implementation details, and the default behavior, which is balanced to be suitable for most astronomical applications. Using a forward model on low-resolution, high signal
Larsson, Jonas; Solomon, Samuel G; Kohn, Adam
2016-07-01
Adaptation has been widely used in functional magnetic imaging (fMRI) studies to infer neuronal response properties in human cortex. fMRI adaptation has been criticized because of the complex relationship between fMRI adaptation effects and the multiple neuronal effects that could underlie them. Many of the longstanding concerns about fMRI adaptation have received empirical support from neurophysiological studies over the last decade. We review these studies here, and also consider neuroimaging studies that have investigated how fMRI adaptation effects are influenced by high-level perceptual processes. The results of these studies further emphasize the need to interpret fMRI adaptation results with caution, but they also provide helpful guidance for more accurate interpretation and better experimental design. In addition, we argue that rather than being used as a proxy for measurements of neuronal stimulus selectivity, fMRI adaptation may be most useful for studying population-level adaptation effects across cortical processing hierarchies. PMID:26703375
Quantum Inference on Bayesian Networks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yoder, Theodore; Low, Guang Hao; Chuang, Isaac
2014-03-01
Because quantum physics is naturally probabilistic, it seems reasonable to expect physical systems to describe probabilities and their evolution in a natural fashion. Here, we use quantum computation to speedup sampling from a graphical probability model, the Bayesian network. A specialization of this sampling problem is approximate Bayesian inference, where the distribution on query variables is sampled given the values e of evidence variables. Inference is a key part of modern machine learning and artificial intelligence tasks, but is known to be NP-hard. Classically, a single unbiased sample is obtained from a Bayesian network on n variables with at most m parents per node in time (nmP(e) - 1 / 2) , depending critically on P(e) , the probability the evidence might occur in the first place. However, by implementing a quantum version of rejection sampling, we obtain a square-root speedup, taking (n2m P(e) -1/2) time per sample. The speedup is the result of amplitude amplification, which is proving to be broadly applicable in sampling and machine learning tasks. In particular, we provide an explicit and efficient circuit construction that implements the algorithm without the need for oracle access.
Barrett, Harrison H.; Furenlid, Lars R.; Freed, Melanie; Hesterman, Jacob Y.; Kupinski, Matthew A.; Clarkson, Eric; Whitaker, Meredith K.
2008-01-01
Adaptive imaging systems alter their data-acquisition configuration or protocol in response to the image information received. An adaptive pinhole single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) system might acquire an initial scout image to obtain preliminary information about the radiotracer distribution and then adjust the configuration or sizes of the pinholes, the magnifications, or the projection angles in order to improve performance. This paper briefly describes two small-animal SPECT systems that allow this flexibility and then presents a framework for evaluating adaptive systems in general, and adaptive SPECT systems in particular. The evaluation is in terms of the performance of linear observers on detection or estimation tasks. Expressions are derived for the ideal linear (Hotelling) observer and the ideal linear (Wiener) estimator with adaptive imaging. Detailed expressions for the performance figures of merit are given, and possible adaptation rules are discussed. PMID:18541485
Bayesian Inference of Tumor Hypoxia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gunawan, R.; Tenti, G.; Sivaloganathan, S.
2009-12-01
Tumor hypoxia is a state of oxygen deprivation in tumors. It has been associated with aggressive tumor phenotypes and with increased resistance to conventional cancer therapies. In this study, we report on the application of Bayesian sequential analysis in estimating the most probable value of tumor hypoxia quantification based on immunohistochemical assays of a biomarker. The `gold standard' of tumor hypoxia assessment is a direct measurement of pO2 in vivo by the Eppendorf polarographic electrode, which is an invasive technique restricted to accessible sites and living tissues. An attractive alternative is immunohistochemical staining to detect proteins expressed by cells during hypoxia. Carbonic anhydrase IX (CAIX) is an enzyme expressed on the cell membrane during hypoxia to balance the immediate extracellular microenvironment. CAIX is widely regarded as a surrogate marker of chronic hypoxia in various cancers. The study was conducted with two different experimental procedures. The first data set was a group of three patients with invasive cervical carcinomas, from which five biopsies were obtained. Each of the biopsies was fully sectioned and from each section, the proportion of CAIX-positive cells was estimated. Measurements were made by image analysis of multiple deep sections cut through these biopsies, labeled for CAIX using both immunofluorescence and immunohistochemical techniques [1]. The second data set was a group of 24 patients, also with invasive cervical carcinomas, from which two biopsies were obtained. Bayesian parameter estimation was applied to obtain a reliable inference about the proportion of CAIX-positive cells within the carcinomas, based on the available biopsies. From the first data set, two to three biopsies were found to be sufficient to infer the overall CAIX percentage in the simple form: best estimate±uncertainty. The second data-set led to a similar result in 70% of the cases. In the remaining cases Bayes' theorem warned us
Infering Networks From Collective Dynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Timme, Marc
How can we infer direct physical interactions between pairs of units from only knowing the units' time series? Here we present a dynamical systems' view on collective network dynamics, and propose the concept of a dynamics' space to reveal interaction networks from time series. We present two examples: one, where the time series stem from standard ordinary differential equations, and a second, more abstract, where the time series exhibits only partial information about the units' states. We apply the latter to neural circuit dynamics where the observables are spike timing data, i.e. only a discrete, state-dependent outputs of the neurons. These results may help revealing network structure for systems where direct access to dynamics is simpler than to connectivity, cf.. This is work with Jose Casadiego, Srinivas Gorur Shandilya, Mor Nitzan, Hauke Haehne and Dimitra Maoutsa. Supported by Grants of the BMBF (Future Compliant Power Grids - CoNDyNet) and by the Max Planck Society to MT.
Inferred properties of stellar granulation
Gray, D.F.; Toner, C.G.
1985-06-01
Apparent characteristics of stellar granulation in F and G main-sequence stars are inferred directly from observed spectral-line asymmetries and from comparisons of numerical simulations with the observations: (1) the apparent granulation velocity increases with effective temperature, (2) the dispersion of granule velocities about their mean velocity of rise increases with the apparent granulation velocity, (3) the mean velocity of rise of granules must be less than the total line broadening, (4) the apparent velocity difference between granules and dark lanes corresponds to the granulation velocity deduced from stellar line bisectors, (5) the dark lanes show velocities of fall approximately twice as large as the granule rise velocities, (6) the light contributed to the stellar flux by the granules is four to ten times more than the light from the dark lanes. Stellar rotation is predicted to produce distortions in the line bisectors which may give information on the absolute velocity displacements of the line bisectors. 37 references.
Structural inference for uncertain networks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Martin, Travis; Ball, Brian; Newman, M. E. J.
2016-01-01
In the study of networked systems such as biological, technological, and social networks the available data are often uncertain. Rather than knowing the structure of a network exactly, we know the connections between nodes only with a certain probability. In this paper we develop methods for the analysis of such uncertain data, focusing particularly on the problem of community detection. We give a principled maximum-likelihood method for inferring community structure and demonstrate how the results can be used to make improved estimates of the true structure of the network. Using computer-generated benchmark networks we demonstrate that our methods are able to reconstruct known communities more accurately than previous approaches based on data thresholding. We also give an example application to the detection of communities in a protein-protein interaction network.
Transdimensional inference in the geosciences.
Sambridge, M; Bodin, T; Gallagher, K; Tkalcic, H
2013-02-13
Seismologists construct images of the Earth's interior structure using observations, derived from seismograms, collected at the surface. A common approach to such inverse problems is to build a single 'best' Earth model, in some sense. This is despite the fact that the observations by themselves often do not require, or even allow, a single best-fit Earth model to exist. Interpretation of optimal models can be fraught with difficulties, particularly when formal uncertainty estimates become heavily dependent on the regularization imposed. Similar issues occur across the physical sciences with model construction in ill-posed problems. An alternative approach is to embrace the non-uniqueness directly and employ an inference process based on parameter space sampling. Instead of seeking a best model within an optimization framework, one seeks an ensemble of solutions and derives properties of that ensemble for inspection. While this idea has itself been employed for more than 30 years, it is now receiving increasing attention in the geosciences. Recently, it has been shown that transdimensional and hierarchical sampling methods have some considerable benefits for problems involving multiple parameter types, uncertain data errors and/or uncertain model parametrizations, as are common in seismology. Rather than being forced to make decisions on parametrization, the level of data noise and the weights between data types in advance, as is often the case in an optimization framework, the choice can be informed by the data themselves. Despite the relatively high computational burden involved, the number of areas where sampling methods are now feasible is growing rapidly. The intention of this article is to introduce concepts of transdimensional inference to a general readership and illustrate with particular seismological examples. A growing body of references provide necessary detail. PMID:23277604
Bayesian Nonparametric Inference – Why and How
Müller, Peter; Mitra, Riten
2013-01-01
We review inference under models with nonparametric Bayesian (BNP) priors. The discussion follows a set of examples for some common inference problems. The examples are chosen to highlight problems that are challenging for standard parametric inference. We discuss inference for density estimation, clustering, regression and for mixed effects models with random effects distributions. While we focus on arguing for the need for the flexibility of BNP models, we also review some of the more commonly used BNP models, thus hopefully answering a bit of both questions, why and how to use BNP. PMID:24368932
Inference engine using optical array logic
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Iwata, Masaya; Tanida, Jun; Ichioka, Yoshiki
1990-07-01
An implementation method for an inference engine using optical array logic is presented. Optical array logic is a technique for parallel neighborhood operation using spatial coding and 2-D correlation. For efficient execution of inference in artificial intelligence problems, a large number of data must be searched effectively. To achieve this demand, a template matching technique is applied to the inference operation. By introducing a new function of data conversion, the inference operation can be implemented with optical array logic, which utilizes parallelism in optical techniques.
Learning Probabilistic Inference through Spike-Timing-Dependent Plasticity123
Pecevski, Dejan
2016-01-01
Abstract Numerous experimental data show that the brain is able to extract information from complex, uncertain, and often ambiguous experiences. Furthermore, it can use such learnt information for decision making through probabilistic inference. Several models have been proposed that aim at explaining how probabilistic inference could be performed by networks of neurons in the brain. We propose here a model that can also explain how such neural network could acquire the necessary information for that from examples. We show that spike-timing-dependent plasticity in combination with intrinsic plasticity generates in ensembles of pyramidal cells with lateral inhibition a fundamental building block for that: probabilistic associations between neurons that represent through their firing current values of random variables. Furthermore, by combining such adaptive network motifs in a recursive manner the resulting network is enabled to extract statistical information from complex input streams, and to build an internal model for the distribution p* that generates the examples it receives. This holds even if p* contains higher-order moments. The analysis of this learning process is supported by a rigorous theoretical foundation. Furthermore, we show that the network can use the learnt internal model immediately for prediction, decision making, and other types of probabilistic inference. PMID:27419214
Evaluating Content Alignment in Computerized Adaptive Testing
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Wise, Steven L.; Kingsbury, G. Gage; Webb, Norman L.
2015-01-01
The alignment between a test and the content domain it measures represents key evidence for the validation of test score inferences. Although procedures have been developed for evaluating the content alignment of linear tests, these procedures are not readily applicable to computerized adaptive tests (CATs), which require large item pools and do…
Role of Utility and Inference in the Evolution of Functional Information
Sharov, Alexei A.
2009-01-01
Functional information means an encoded network of functions in living organisms from molecular signaling pathways to an organism’s behavior. It is represented by two components: code and an interpretation system, which together form a self-sustaining semantic closure. Semantic closure allows some freedom between components because small variations of the code are still interpretable. The interpretation system consists of inference rules that control the correspondence between the code and the function (phenotype) and determines the shape of the fitness landscape. The utility factor operates at multiple time scales: short-term selection drives evolution towards higher survival and reproduction rate within a given fitness landscape, and long-term selection favors those fitness landscapes that support adaptability and lead to evolutionary expansion of certain lineages. Inference rules make short-term selection possible by shaping the fitness landscape and defining possible directions of evolution, but they are under control of the long-term selection of lineages. Communication normally occurs within a set of agents with compatible interpretation systems, which I call communication system. Functional information cannot be directly transferred between communication systems with incompatible inference rules. Each biological species is a genetic communication system that carries unique functional information together with inference rules that determine evolutionary directions and constraints. This view of the relation between utility and inference can resolve the conflict between realism/positivism and pragmatism. Realism overemphasizes the role of inference in evolution of human knowledge because it assumes that logic is embedded in reality. Pragmatism substitutes usefulness for truth and therefore ignores the advantage of inference. The proposed concept of evolutionary pragmatism rejects the idea that logic is embedded in reality; instead, inference rules are
Protein inference: A protein quantification perspective.
He, Zengyou; Huang, Ting; Liu, Xiaoqing; Zhu, Peijun; Teng, Ben; Deng, Shengchun
2016-08-01
In mass spectrometry-based shotgun proteomics, protein quantification and protein identification are two major computational problems. To quantify the protein abundance, a list of proteins must be firstly inferred from the raw data. Then the relative or absolute protein abundance is estimated with quantification methods, such as spectral counting. Until now, most researchers have been dealing with these two processes separately. In fact, the protein inference problem can be regarded as a special protein quantification problem in the sense that truly present proteins are those proteins whose abundance values are not zero. Some recent published papers have conceptually discussed this possibility. However, there is still a lack of rigorous experimental studies to test this hypothesis. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of using protein quantification methods to solve the protein inference problem. Protein inference methods aim to determine whether each candidate protein is present in the sample or not. Protein quantification methods estimate the abundance value of each inferred protein. Naturally, the abundance value of an absent protein should be zero. Thus, we argue that the protein inference problem can be viewed as a special protein quantification problem in which one protein is considered to be present if its abundance is not zero. Based on this idea, our paper tries to use three simple protein quantification methods to solve the protein inference problem effectively. The experimental results on six data sets show that these three methods are competitive with previous protein inference algorithms. This demonstrates that it is plausible to model the protein inference problem as a special protein quantification task, which opens the door of devising more effective protein inference algorithms from a quantification perspective. The source codes of our methods are available at: http://code.google.com/p/protein-inference/. PMID:26935399
Inferring the age of a fixed beneficial allele.
Ormond, Louise; Foll, Matthieu; Ewing, Gregory B; Pfeifer, Susanne P; Jensen, Jeffrey D
2016-01-01
Estimating the age and strength of beneficial alleles is central to understanding how adaptation proceeds in response to changing environmental conditions. Several haplotype-based estimators exist for inferring the age of segregating beneficial mutations. Here, we develop an approximate Bayesian-based approach that rather estimates these parameters for fixed beneficial mutations in single populations. We integrate a range of existing diversity, site frequency spectrum, haplotype- and linkage disequilibrium-based summary statistics. We show that for strong selective sweeps on de novo mutations the method can estimate allele age and selection strength even in nonequilibrium demographic scenarios. We extend our approach to models of selection on standing variation, and co-infer the frequency at which selection began to act upon the mutation. Finally, we apply our method to estimate the age and selection strength of a previously identified mutation underpinning cryptic colour adaptation in a wild deer mouse population, and compare our findings with previously published estimates as well as with geological data pertaining to the presumed shift in selective pressure. PMID:26576754
Cerebellarlike corrective model inference engine for manipulation tasks.
Luque, Niceto Rafael; Garrido, Jesús Alberto; Carrillo, Richard Rafael; Coenen, Olivier J-M D; Ros, Eduardo
2011-10-01
This paper presents how a simple cerebellumlike architecture can infer corrective models in the framework of a control task when manipulating objects that significantly affect the dynamics model of the system. The main motivation of this paper is to evaluate a simplified bio-mimetic approach in the framework of a manipulation task. More concretely, the paper focuses on how the model inference process takes place within a feedforward control loop based on the cerebellar structure and on how these internal models are built up by means of biologically plausible synaptic adaptation mechanisms. This kind of investigation may provide clues on how biology achieves accurate control of non-stiff-joint robot with low-power actuators which involve controlling systems with high inertial components. This paper studies how a basic temporal-correlation kernel including long-term depression (LTD) and a constant long-term potentiation (LTP) at parallel fiber-Purkinje cell synapses can effectively infer corrective models. We evaluate how this spike-timing-dependent plasticity correlates sensorimotor activity arriving through the parallel fibers with teaching signals (dependent on error estimates) arriving through the climbing fibers from the inferior olive. This paper addresses the study of how these LTD and LTP components need to be well balanced with each other to achieve accurate learning. This is of interest to evaluate the relevant role of homeostatic mechanisms in biological systems where adaptation occurs in a distributed manner. Furthermore, we illustrate how the temporal-correlation kernel can also work in the presence of transmission delays in sensorimotor pathways. We use a cerebellumlike spiking neural network which stores the corrective models as well-structured weight patterns distributed among the parallel fibers to Purkinje cell connections. PMID:21536535
Adaptations and Access to Assessment of Common Core Content
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kettler, Ryan J.
2015-01-01
This chapter introduces theory that undergirds the role of testing adaptations in assessment, provides examples of item modifications and testing accommodations, reviews research relevant to each, and introduces a new paradigm that incorporates opportunity to learn (OTL), academic enablers, testing adaptations, and inferences that can be made from…
Forward and Backward Inference in Spatial Cognition
Penny, Will D.; Zeidman, Peter; Burgess, Neil
2013-01-01
This paper shows that the various computations underlying spatial cognition can be implemented using statistical inference in a single probabilistic model. Inference is implemented using a common set of ‘lower-level’ computations involving forward and backward inference over time. For example, to estimate where you are in a known environment, forward inference is used to optimally combine location estimates from path integration with those from sensory input. To decide which way to turn to reach a goal, forward inference is used to compute the likelihood of reaching that goal under each option. To work out which environment you are in, forward inference is used to compute the likelihood of sensory observations under the different hypotheses. For reaching sensory goals that require a chaining together of decisions, forward inference can be used to compute a state trajectory that will lead to that goal, and backward inference to refine the route and estimate control signals that produce the required trajectory. We propose that these computations are reflected in recent findings of pattern replay in the mammalian brain. Specifically, that theta sequences reflect decision making, theta flickering reflects model selection, and remote replay reflects route and motor planning. We also propose a mapping of the above computational processes onto lateral and medial entorhinal cortex and hippocampus. PMID:24348230
Inferring Learners' Knowledge from Their Actions
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Rafferty, Anna N.; LaMar, Michelle M.; Griffiths, Thomas L.
2015-01-01
Watching another person take actions to complete a goal and making inferences about that person's knowledge is a relatively natural task for people. This ability can be especially important in educational settings, where the inferences can be used for assessment, diagnosing misconceptions, and providing informative feedback. In this paper, we…
Local and Global Thinking in Statistical Inference
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Pratt, Dave; Johnston-Wilder, Peter; Ainley, Janet; Mason, John
2008-01-01
In this reflective paper, we explore students' local and global thinking about informal statistical inference through our observations of 10- to 11-year-olds, challenged to infer the unknown configuration of a virtual die, but able to use the die to generate as much data as they felt necessary. We report how they tended to focus on local changes…
The Impact of Disablers on Predictive Inference
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Cummins, Denise Dellarosa
2014-01-01
People consider alternative causes when deciding whether a cause is responsible for an effect (diagnostic inference) but appear to neglect them when deciding whether an effect will occur (predictive inference). Five experiments were conducted to test a 2-part explanation of this phenomenon: namely, (a) that people interpret standard predictive…
Causal Inferences during Text Comprehension and Production.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kemper, Susan
As comprehension failure results whenever readers are unable to infer missing causal connections, recent comprehension research has focused both on assessing the inferential complexity of texts and on investigating students' developing ability to infer causal relationships. Studies have demonstrated that texts rely on four types of causal…
Scalar Inferences in Autism Spectrum Disorders
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Chevallier, Coralie; Wilson, Deirdre; Happe, Francesca; Noveck, Ira
2010-01-01
On being told "John or Mary will come", one might infer that "not both" of them will come. Yet the semantics of "or" is compatible with a situation where both John and Mary come. Inferences of this type, which enrich the semantics of "or" from an "inclusive" to an "exclusive" interpretation, have been extensively studied in linguistic pragmatics.…
Genetic Network Inference Using Hierarchical Structure.
Kimura, Shuhei; Tokuhisa, Masato; Okada-Hatakeyama, Mariko
2016-01-01
Many methods for inferring genetic networks have been proposed, but the regulations they infer often include false-positives. Several researchers have attempted to reduce these erroneous regulations by proposing the use of a priori knowledge about the properties of genetic networks such as their sparseness, scale-free structure, and so on. This study focuses on another piece of a priori knowledge, namely, that biochemical networks exhibit hierarchical structures. Based on this idea, we propose an inference approach that uses the hierarchical structure in a target genetic network. To obtain a reasonable hierarchical structure, the first step of the proposed approach is to infer multiple genetic networks from the observed gene expression data. We take this step using an existing method that combines a genetic network inference method with a bootstrap method. The next step is to extract a hierarchical structure from the inferred networks that is consistent with most of the networks. Third, we use the hierarchical structure obtained to assign confidence values to all candidate regulations. Numerical experiments are also performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of using the hierarchical structure in the genetic network inference. The improvement accomplished by the use of the hierarchical structure is small. However, the hierarchical structure could be used to improve the performances of many existing inference methods. PMID:26941653
The Reasoning behind Informal Statistical Inference
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Makar, Katie; Bakker, Arthur; Ben-Zvi, Dani
2011-01-01
Informal statistical inference (ISI) has been a frequent focus of recent research in statistics education. Considering the role that context plays in developing ISI calls into question the need to be more explicit about the reasoning that underpins ISI. This paper uses educational literature on informal statistical inference and philosophical…
Causal Inference in Public Health
Glass, Thomas A.; Goodman, Steven N.; Hernán, Miguel A.; Samet, Jonathan M.
2014-01-01
Causal inference has a central role in public health; the determination that an association is causal indicates the possibility for intervention. We review and comment on the long-used guidelines for interpreting evidence as supporting a causal association and contrast them with the potential outcomes framework that encourages thinking in terms of causes that are interventions. We argue that in public health this framework is more suitable, providing an estimate of an action’s consequences rather than the less precise notion of a risk factor’s causal effect. A variety of modern statistical methods adopt this approach. When an intervention cannot be specified, causal relations can still exist, but how to intervene to change the outcome will be unclear. In application, the often-complex structure of causal processes needs to be acknowledged and appropriate data collected to study them. These newer approaches need to be brought to bear on the increasingly complex public health challenges of our globalized world. PMID:23297653
Active inference and epistemic value.
Friston, Karl; Rigoli, Francesco; Ognibene, Dimitri; Mathys, Christoph; Fitzgerald, Thomas; Pezzulo, Giovanni
2015-01-01
We offer a formal treatment of choice behavior based on the premise that agents minimize the expected free energy of future outcomes. Crucially, the negative free energy or quality of a policy can be decomposed into extrinsic and epistemic (or intrinsic) value. Minimizing expected free energy is therefore equivalent to maximizing extrinsic value or expected utility (defined in terms of prior preferences or goals), while maximizing information gain or intrinsic value (or reducing uncertainty about the causes of valuable outcomes). The resulting scheme resolves the exploration-exploitation dilemma: Epistemic value is maximized until there is no further information gain, after which exploitation is assured through maximization of extrinsic value. This is formally consistent with the Infomax principle, generalizing formulations of active vision based upon salience (Bayesian surprise) and optimal decisions based on expected utility and risk-sensitive (Kullback-Leibler) control. Furthermore, as with previous active inference formulations of discrete (Markovian) problems, ad hoc softmax parameters become the expected (Bayes-optimal) precision of beliefs about, or confidence in, policies. This article focuses on the basic theory, illustrating the ideas with simulations. A key aspect of these simulations is the similarity between precision updates and dopaminergic discharges observed in conditioning paradigms. PMID:25689102
Inference-based constraint satisfaction supports explanation
Sqalli, M.H.; Freuder, E.C.
1996-12-31
Constraint satisfaction problems are typically solved using search, augmented by general purpose consistency inference methods. This paper proposes a paradigm shift in which inference is used as the primary problem solving method, and attention is focused on special purpose, domain specific inference methods. While we expect this approach to have computational advantages, we emphasize here the advantages of a solution method that is more congenial to human thought processes. Specifically we use inference-based constraint satisfaction to support explanations of the problem solving behavior that are considerably more meaningful than a trace of a search process would be. Logic puzzles are used as a case study. Inference-based constraint satisfaction proves surprisingly powerful and easily extensible in this domain. Problems drawn from commercial logic puzzle booklets are used for evaluation. Explanations are produced that compare well with the explanations provided by these booklets.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad
2016-05-01
Bayesian inference has traditionally been conceived as the proper framework for the formal incorporation of expert knowledge in parameter estimation of groundwater models. However, conventional Bayesian inference is incapable of taking into account the imprecision essentially embedded in expert provided information. In order to solve this problem, a number of extensions to conventional Bayesian inference have been introduced in recent years. One of these extensions is 'fuzzy Bayesian inference' which is the result of integrating fuzzy techniques into Bayesian statistics. Fuzzy Bayesian inference has a number of desirable features which makes it an attractive approach for incorporating expert knowledge in the parameter estimation process of groundwater models: (1) it is well adapted to the nature of expert provided information, (2) it allows to distinguishably model both uncertainty and imprecision, and (3) it presents a framework for fusing expert provided information regarding the various inputs of the Bayesian inference algorithm. However an important obstacle in employing fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater numerical modeling applications is the computational burden, as the required number of numerical model simulations often becomes extremely exhaustive and often computationally infeasible. In this paper, a novel approach of accelerating the fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed which is based on using approximate posterior distributions derived from surrogate modeling, as a screening tool in the computations. The proposed approach is first applied to a synthetic test case of seawater intrusion (SWI) in a coastal aquifer. It is shown that for this synthetic test case, the proposed approach decreases the number of required numerical simulations by an order of magnitude. Then the proposed approach is applied to a real-world test case involving three-dimensional numerical modeling of SWI in Kish Island, located in the Persian Gulf. An expert
Inferring genetic networks from microarray data.
May, Elebeoba Eni; Davidson, George S.; Martin, Shawn Bryan; Werner-Washburne, Margaret C.; Faulon, Jean-Loup Michel
2004-06-01
In theory, it should be possible to infer realistic genetic networks from time series microarray data. In practice, however, network discovery has proved problematic. The three major challenges are: (1) inferring the network; (2) estimating the stability of the inferred network; and (3) making the network visually accessible to the user. Here we describe a method, tested on publicly available time series microarray data, which addresses these concerns. The inference of genetic networks from genome-wide experimental data is an important biological problem which has received much attention. Approaches to this problem have typically included application of clustering algorithms [6]; the use of Boolean networks [12, 1, 10]; the use of Bayesian networks [8, 11]; and the use of continuous models [21, 14, 19]. Overviews of the problem and general approaches to network inference can be found in [4, 3]. Our approach to network inference is similar to earlier methods in that we use both clustering and Boolean network inference. However, we have attempted to extend the process to better serve the end-user, the biologist. In particular, we have incorporated a system to assess the reliability of our network, and we have developed tools which allow interactive visualization of the proposed network.
Linguistic Markers of Inference Generation While Reading.
Clinton, Virginia; Carlson, Sarah E; Seipel, Ben
2016-06-01
Words can be informative linguistic markers of psychological constructs. The purpose of this study is to examine associations between word use and the process of making meaningful connections to a text while reading (i.e., inference generation). To achieve this purpose, think-aloud data from third-fifth grade students ([Formula: see text]) reading narrative texts were hand-coded for inferences. These data were also processed with a computer text analysis tool, Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count, for percentages of word use in the following categories: cognitive mechanism words, nonfluencies, and nine types of function words. Findings indicate that cognitive mechanisms were an independent, positive predictor of connections to background knowledge (i.e., elaborative inference generation) and nonfluencies were an independent, negative predictor of connections within the text (i.e., bridging inference generation). Function words did not provide unique variance towards predicting inference generation. These findings are discussed in the context of a cognitive reflection model and the differences between bridging and elaborative inference generation. In addition, potential practical implications for intelligent tutoring systems and computer-based methods of inference identification are presented. PMID:25833811
Statistical Physics of High Dimensional Inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Advani, Madhu; Ganguli, Surya
To model modern large-scale datasets, we need efficient algorithms to infer a set of P unknown model parameters from N noisy measurements. What are fundamental limits on the accuracy of parameter inference, given limited measurements, signal-to-noise ratios, prior information, and computational tractability requirements? How can we combine prior information with measurements to achieve these limits? Classical statistics gives incisive answers to these questions as the measurement density α =N/P --> ∞ . However, modern high-dimensional inference problems, in fields ranging from bio-informatics to economics, occur at finite α. We formulate and analyze high-dimensional inference analytically by applying the replica and cavity methods of statistical physics where data serves as quenched disorder and inferred parameters play the role of thermal degrees of freedom. Our analysis reveals that widely cherished Bayesian inference algorithms such as maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori are suboptimal in the modern setting, and yields new tractable, optimal algorithms to replace them as well as novel bounds on the achievable accuracy of a large class of high-dimensional inference algorithms. Thanks to Stanford Graduate Fellowship and Mind Brain Computation IGERT grant for support.
Inference and the introductory statistics course
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pfannkuch, Maxine; Regan, Matt; Wild, Chris; Budgett, Stephanie; Forbes, Sharleen; Harraway, John; Parsonage, Ross
2011-10-01
This article sets out some of the rationale and arguments for making major changes to the teaching and learning of statistical inference in introductory courses at our universities by changing from a norm-based, mathematical approach to more conceptually accessible computer-based approaches. The core problem of the inferential argument with its hypothetical probabilistic reasoning process is examined in some depth. We argue that the revolution in the teaching of inference must begin. We also discuss some perplexing issues, problematic areas and some new insights into language conundrums associated with introducing the logic of inference through randomization methods.
Automated interpretation of LIBS spectra using a fuzzy logic inference engine.
Hatch, Jeremy J; McJunkin, Timothy R; Hanson, Cynthia; Scott, Jill R
2012-03-01
Automated interpretation of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) data is necessary due to the plethora of spectra that can be acquired in a relatively short time. However, traditional chemometric and artificial neural network methods that have been employed are not always transparent to a skilled user. A fuzzy logic approach to data interpretation has now been adapted to LIBS spectral interpretation. Fuzzy logic inference rules were developed using methodology that includes data mining methods and operator expertise to differentiate between various copper-containing and stainless steel alloys as well as unknowns. Results using the fuzzy logic inference engine indicate a high degree of confidence in spectral assignment. PMID:22410914
Degradation monitoring using probabilistic inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alpay, Bulent
In order to increase safety and improve economy and performance in a nuclear power plant (NPP), the source and extent of component degradations should be identified before failures and breakdowns occur. It is also crucial for the next generation of NPPs, which are designed to have a long core life and high fuel burnup to have a degradation monitoring system in order to keep the reactor in a safe state, to meet the designed reactor core lifetime and to optimize the scheduled maintenance. Model-based methods are based on determining the inconsistencies between the actual and expected behavior of the plant, and use these inconsistencies for detection and diagnostics of degradations. By defining degradation as a random abrupt change from the nominal to a constant degraded state of a component, we employed nonlinear filtering techniques based on state/parameter estimation. We utilized a Bayesian recursive estimation formulation in the sequential probabilistic inference framework and constructed a hidden Markov model to represent a general physical system. By addressing the problem of a filter's inability to estimate an abrupt change, which is called the oblivious filter problem in nonlinear extensions of Kalman filtering, and the sample impoverishment problem in particle filtering, we developed techniques to modify filtering algorithms by utilizing additional data sources to improve the filter's response to this problem. We utilized a reliability degradation database that can be constructed from plant specific operational experience and test and maintenance reports to generate proposal densities for probable degradation modes. These are used in a multiple hypothesis testing algorithm. We then test samples drawn from these proposal densities with the particle filtering estimates based on the Bayesian recursive estimation formulation with the Metropolis Hastings algorithm, which is a well-known Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC). This multiple hypothesis testing
2011-01-01
Background The extraction of complex events from biomedical text is a challenging task and requires in-depth semantic analysis. Previous approaches associate lexical and syntactic resources with ontologies for the semantic analysis, but fall short in testing the benefits from the use of domain knowledge. Results We developed a system that deduces implicit events from explicitly expressed events by using inference rules that encode domain knowledge. We evaluated the system with the inference module on three tasks: First, when tested against a corpus with manually annotated events, the inference module of our system contributes 53.2% of correct extractions, but does not cause any incorrect results. Second, the system overall reproduces 33.1% of the transcription regulatory events contained in RegulonDB (up to 85.0% precision) and the inference module is required for 93.8% of the reproduced events. Third, we applied the system with minimum adaptations to the identification of cell activity regulation events, confirming that the inference improves the performance of the system also on this task. Conclusions Our research shows that the inference based on domain knowledge plays a significant role in extracting complex events from text. This approach has great potential in recognizing the complex concepts of such biomedical ontologies as Gene Ontology in the literature. PMID:22166672
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
2005-01-01
The goal of this research is to develop and demonstrate innovative adaptive seal technologies that can lead to dramatic improvements in engine performance, life, range, and emissions, and enhance operability for next generation gas turbine engines. This work is concentrated on the development of self-adaptive clearance control systems for gas turbine engines. Researchers have targeted the high-pressure turbine (HPT) blade tip seal location for following reasons: Current active clearance control (ACC) systems (e.g., thermal case-cooling schemes) cannot respond to blade tip clearance changes due to mechanical, thermal, and aerodynamic loads. As such they are prone to wear due to the required tight running clearances during operation. Blade tip seal wear (increased clearances) reduces engine efficiency, performance, and service life. Adaptive sealing technology research has inherent impact on all envisioned 21st century propulsion systems (e.g. distributed vectored, hybrid and electric drive propulsion concepts).
An inference engine for embedded diagnostic systems
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Fox, Barry R.; Brewster, Larry T.
1987-01-01
The implementation of an inference engine for embedded diagnostic systems is described. The system consists of two distinct parts. The first is an off-line compiler which accepts a propositional logical statement of the relationship between facts and conclusions and produces data structures required by the on-line inference engine. The second part consists of the inference engine and interface routines which accept assertions of fact and return the conclusions which necessarily follow. Given a set of assertions, it will generate exactly the conclusions which logically follow. At the same time, it will detect any inconsistencies which may propagate from an inconsistent set of assertions or a poorly formulated set of rules. The memory requirements are fixed and the worst case execution times are bounded at compile time. The data structures and inference algorithms are very simple and well understood. The data structures and algorithms are described in detail. The system has been implemented on Lisp, Pascal, and Modula-2.
Metamodel-Driven Evolution with Grammar Inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bryant, Barrett R.; Liu, Qichao; Mernik, Marjan
2010-10-01
Domain-specific modeling (DSM) has become one of the most popular techniques for incorporating model-driven engineering (MDE) into software engineering. In DSM, domain experts define metamodels to describe the essential problems in a domain. A model conforms to a schema definition represented by a metamodel in a similar manner to a programming language conforms to a grammar. Metamodel-driven evolution is when a metamodel undergoes evolutions to incorporate new concerns in the domain. However, this results in losing the ability to use existing model instances. Grammar inference is the problem of inferring a grammar from sample strings which the grammar should generate. This paper describes our work in solving the problem of metamodel-driven evolution with grammar inference, by inferring the metamodel from model instances.
Critical Thinking: Distinguishing between Inferences and Assumptions.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Elder, Linda; Paul, Richard
2002-01-01
Outlines the differences between inferences and assumptions in critical thinking processes. Explains that as students develop critical intuitions, they increasingly notice how their point of view shapes their experiences. (AUTH/NB)
Are Evaluations Inferred Directly From Overt Actions?
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Brown, Donald; And Others
1975-01-01
The operation of a covert information processing mechanism was investigated in two experiments of the self-persuasion phenomena; i. e., making an inference about a stimulus on the basis of one's past behavior. (Editor)
Multisensory causal inference in the brain.
Kayser, Christoph; Shams, Ladan
2015-02-01
At any given moment, our brain processes multiple inputs from its different sensory modalities (vision, hearing, touch, etc.). In deciphering this array of sensory information, the brain has to solve two problems: (1) which of the inputs originate from the same object and should be integrated and (2) for the sensations originating from the same object, how best to integrate them. Recent behavioural studies suggest that the human brain solves these problems using optimal probabilistic inference, known as Bayesian causal inference. However, how and where the underlying computations are carried out in the brain have remained unknown. By combining neuroimaging-based decoding techniques and computational modelling of behavioural data, a new study now sheds light on how multisensory causal inference maps onto specific brain areas. The results suggest that the complexity of neural computations increases along the visual hierarchy and link specific components of the causal inference process with specific visual and parietal regions. PMID:25710476
Probabilistic inferences related to the measurement process
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rossi, G. B.
2010-07-01
In measurement indications from a measuring system are acquired and, on the basis of them, some inference about the measurand is made. The final result may be the assignment of a probability distribution for the possible values of the measurand. We discuss the logical structure of such an inference and some of its epistemological consequences. In particular, we propose a new solution to the problem of systematic effects in measurement.
Causal inference in economics and marketing.
Varian, Hal R
2016-07-01
This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference. PMID:27382144
Symbolic transfer entropy: inferring directionality in biosignals.
Staniek, Matthäus; Lehnertz, Klaus
2009-12-01
Inferring directional interactions from biosignals is of crucial importance to improve understanding of dynamical interdependences underlying various physiological and pathophysiological conditions. We here present symbolic transfer entropy as a robust measure to infer the direction of interactions between multidimensional dynamical systems. We demonstrate its performance in quantifying driver-responder relationships in a network of coupled nonlinear oscillators and in the human epileptic brain. PMID:19938889
Causal inference in economics and marketing
Varian, Hal R.
2016-01-01
This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual—a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference. PMID:27382144
Operation of the Bayes Inference Engine
Hanson, K.M.; Cunningham, G.S.
1998-07-27
The authors have developed a computer application, called the Bayes Inference Engine, to enable one to make inferences about models of a physical object from radiographs taken of it. In the BIE calculational models are represented by a data-flow diagram that can be manipulated by the analyst in a graphical-programming environment. The authors demonstrate the operation of the BIE in terms of examples of two-dimensional tomographic reconstruction including uncertainty estimation.
Adaptive evolution of molecular phenotypes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Held, Torsten; Nourmohammad, Armita; Lässig, Michael
2014-09-01
Molecular phenotypes link genomic information with organismic functions, fitness, and evolution. Quantitative traits are complex phenotypes that depend on multiple genomic loci. In this paper, we study the adaptive evolution of a quantitative trait under time-dependent selection, which arises from environmental changes or through fitness interactions with other co-evolving phenotypes. We analyze a model of trait evolution under mutations and genetic drift in a single-peak fitness seascape. The fitness peak performs a constrained random walk in the trait amplitude, which determines the time-dependent trait optimum in a given population. We derive analytical expressions for the distribution of the time-dependent trait divergence between populations and of the trait diversity within populations. Based on this solution, we develop a method to infer adaptive evolution of quantitative traits. Specifically, we show that the ratio of the average trait divergence and the diversity is a universal function of evolutionary time, which predicts the stabilizing strength and the driving rate of the fitness seascape. From an information-theoretic point of view, this function measures the macro-evolutionary entropy in a population ensemble, which determines the predictability of the evolutionary process. Our solution also quantifies two key characteristics of adapting populations: the cumulative fitness flux, which measures the total amount of adaptation, and the adaptive load, which is the fitness cost due to a population's lag behind the fitness peak.
On the criticality of inferred models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Marsili, Matteo
2011-10-01
Advanced inference techniques allow one to reconstruct a pattern of interaction from high dimensional data sets, from probing simultaneously thousands of units of extended systems—such as cells, neural tissues and financial markets. We focus here on the statistical properties of inferred models and argue that inference procedures are likely to yield models which are close to singular values of parameters, akin to critical points in physics where phase transitions occur. These are points where the response of physical systems to external perturbations, as measured by the susceptibility, is very large and diverges in the limit of infinite size. We show that the reparameterization invariant metrics in the space of probability distributions of these models (the Fisher information) are directly related to the susceptibility of the inferred model. As a result, distinguishable models tend to accumulate close to critical points, where the susceptibility diverges in infinite systems. This region is the one where the estimate of inferred parameters is most stable. In order to illustrate these points, we discuss inference of interacting point processes with application to financial data and show that sensible choices of observation time scales naturally yield models which are close to criticality.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Wedman, John; Wedman, Judy
1985-01-01
The "Animals" program found on the Apple II and IIe system master disk can be adapted for use in the mathematics classroom. Instructions for making the necessary changes and suggestions for using it in lessons related to geometric shapes are provided. (JN)
Bremer, P. -T.
2014-08-26
ADAPT is a topological analysis code that allow to compute local threshold, in particular relevance based thresholds for features defined in scalar fields. The initial target application is vortex detection but the software is more generally applicable to all threshold based feature definitions.
Davies, Kelvin J A
2016-06-01
Homeostasis is a central pillar of modern Physiology. The term homeostasis was invented by Walter Bradford Cannon in an attempt to extend and codify the principle of 'milieu intérieur,' or a constant interior bodily environment, that had previously been postulated by Claude Bernard. Clearly, 'milieu intérieur' and homeostasis have served us well for over a century. Nevertheless, research on signal transduction systems that regulate gene expression, or that cause biochemical alterations to existing enzymes, in response to external and internal stimuli, makes it clear that biological systems are continuously making short-term adaptations both to set-points, and to the range of 'normal' capacity. These transient adaptations typically occur in response to relatively mild changes in conditions, to programs of exercise training, or to sub-toxic, non-damaging levels of chemical agents; thus, the terms hormesis, heterostasis, and allostasis are not accurate descriptors. Therefore, an operational adjustment to our understanding of homeostasis suggests that the modified term, Adaptive Homeostasis, may be useful especially in studies of stress, toxicology, disease, and aging. Adaptive Homeostasis may be defined as follows: 'The transient expansion or contraction of the homeostatic range in response to exposure to sub-toxic, non-damaging, signaling molecules or events, or the removal or cessation of such molecules or events.' PMID:27112802
Sekar, Booma Devi; Dong, Mingchui
2014-01-01
An intelligent cardiovascular disease (CVD) diagnosis system using hemodynamic parameters (HDPs) derived from sphygmogram (SPG) signal is presented to support the emerging patient-centric healthcare models. To replicate clinical approach of diagnosis through a staged decision process, the Bayesian inference nets (BIN) are adapted. New approaches to construct a hierarchical multistage BIN using defined function formulas and a method employing fuzzy logic (FL) technology to quantify inference nodes with dynamic values of statistical parameters are proposed. The suggested methodology is validated by constructing hierarchical Bayesian fuzzy inference nets (HBFIN) to diagnose various heart pathologies from the deduced HDPs. The preliminary diagnostic results show that the proposed methodology has salient validity and effectiveness in the diagnosis of cardiovascular disease. PMID:25247174
Sekar, Booma Devi; Dong, Mingchui
2014-01-01
An intelligent cardiovascular disease (CVD) diagnosis system using hemodynamic parameters (HDPs) derived from sphygmogram (SPG) signal is presented to support the emerging patient-centric healthcare models. To replicate clinical approach of diagnosis through a staged decision process, the Bayesian inference nets (BIN) are adapted. New approaches to construct a hierarchical multistage BIN using defined function formulas and a method employing fuzzy logic (FL) technology to quantify inference nodes with dynamic values of statistical parameters are proposed. The suggested methodology is validated by constructing hierarchical Bayesian fuzzy inference nets (HBFIN) to diagnose various heart pathologies from the deduced HDPs. The preliminary diagnostic results show that the proposed methodology has salient validity and effectiveness in the diagnosis of cardiovascular disease. PMID:25247174
Prediction, Bayesian inference and feedback in speech recognition
Norris, Dennis; McQueen, James M.; Cutler, Anne
2016-01-01
ABSTRACT Speech perception involves prediction, but how is that prediction implemented? In cognitive models prediction has often been taken to imply that there is feedback of activation from lexical to pre-lexical processes as implemented in interactive-activation models (IAMs). We show that simple activation feedback does not actually improve speech recognition. However, other forms of feedback can be beneficial. In particular, feedback can enable the listener to adapt to changing input, and can potentially help the listener to recognise unusual input, or recognise speech in the presence of competing sounds. The common feature of these helpful forms of feedback is that they are all ways of optimising the performance of speech recognition using Bayesian inference. That is, listeners make predictions about speech because speech recognition is optimal in the sense captured in Bayesian models. PMID:26740960
Semiparametric inference for surrogate endpoints with bivariate censored data.
Ghosh, Debashis
2008-03-01
Considerable attention has been recently paid to the use of surrogate endpoints in clinical research. We deal with the situation where the two endpoints are both right censored. While proportional hazards analyses are typically used for this setting, their use leads to several complications. In this article, we propose the use of the accelerated failure time model for analysis of surrogate endpoints. Based on the model, we then describe estimation and inference procedures for several measures of surrogacy. A complication is that potentially both the independent and dependent variable are subject to censoring. We adapt the Theil-Sen estimator to this problem, develop the associated asymptotic results, and propose a novel resampling-based technique for calculating the variances of the proposed estimators. The finite-sample properties of the estimation methodology are assessed using simulation studies, and the proposed procedures are applied to data from an acute myelogenous leukemia clinical trial. PMID:17651457
Viewpoints: feeding mechanics, diet, and dietary adaptations in early hominins.
Daegling, David J; Judex, Stefan; Ozcivici, Engin; Ravosa, Matthew J; Taylor, Andrea B; Grine, Frederick E; Teaford, Mark F; Ungar, Peter S
2013-07-01
Inference of feeding adaptation in extinct species is challenging, and reconstructions of the paleobiology of our ancestors have utilized an array of analytical approaches. Comparative anatomy and finite element analysis assist in bracketing the range of capabilities in taxa, while microwear and isotopic analyses give glimpses of individual behavior in the past. These myriad approaches have limitations, but each contributes incrementally toward the recognition of adaptation in the hominin fossil record. Microwear and stable isotope analysis together suggest that australopiths are not united by a single, increasingly specialized dietary adaptation. Their traditional (i.e., morphological) characterization as "nutcrackers" may only apply to a single taxon, Paranthropus robustus. These inferences can be rejected if interpretation of microwear and isotopic data can be shown to be misguided or altogether erroneous. Alternatively, if these sources of inference are valid, it merely indicates that there are phylogenetic and developmental constraints on morphology. Inherently, finite element analysis is limited in its ability to identify adaptation in paleobiological contexts. Its application to the hominin fossil record to date demonstrates only that under similar loading conditions, the form of the stress field in the australopith facial skeleton differs from that in living primates. This observation, by itself, does not reveal feeding adaptation. Ontogenetic studies indicate that functional and evolutionary adaptation need not be conceptually isolated phenomena. Such a perspective helps to inject consideration of mechanobiological principles of bone formation into paleontological inferences. Finite element analysis must employ such principles to become an effective research tool in this context. PMID:23794331
Inferring the direction of implied motion depends on visual awareness
Faivre, Nathan; Koch, Christof
2014-01-01
Visual awareness of an event, object, or scene is, by essence, an integrated experience, whereby different visual features composing an object (e.g., orientation, color, shape) appear as an unified percept and are processed as a whole. Here, we tested in human observers whether perceptual integration of static motion cues depends on awareness by measuring the capacity to infer the direction of motion implied by a static visible or invisible image under continuous flash suppression. Using measures of directional adaptation, we found that visible but not invisible implied motion adaptors biased the perception of real motion probes. In a control experiment, we found that invisible adaptors implying motion primed the perception of subsequent probes when they were identical (i.e., repetition priming), but not when they only shared the same direction (i.e., direction priming). Furthermore, using a model of visual processing, we argue that repetition priming effects are likely to arise as early as in the primary visual cortex. We conclude that although invisible images implying motion undergo some form of nonconscious processing, visual awareness is necessary to make inferences about motion direction. PMID:24706951
HLA Type Inference via Haplotypes Identical by Descent
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Setty, Manu N.; Gusev, Alexander; Pe'Er, Itsik
The Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) genes play a major role in adaptive immune response and are used to differentiate self antigens from non self ones. HLA genes are hyper variable with nearly every locus harboring over a dozen alleles. This variation plays an important role in susceptibility to multiple autoimmune diseases and needs to be matched on for organ transplantation. Unfortunately, HLA typing by serological methods is time consuming and expensive compared to high throughput Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) data. We present a new computational method to infer per-locus HLA types using shared segments Identical By Descent (IBD), inferred from SNP genotype data. IBD information is modeled as graph where shared haplotypes are explored among clusters of individuals with known and unknown HLA types to identify the latter. We analyze performance of the method in a previously typed subset of the HapMap population, achieving accuracy of 96% in HLA-A, 94% in HLA-B, 95% in HLA-C, 77% in HLA-DR1, 93% in HLA-DQA1 and 90% in HLA-DQB1 genes. We compare our method to a tag SNP based approach and demonstrate higher sensitivity and specificity. Our method demonstrates the power of using shared haplotype segments for large-scale imputation at the HLA locus.
Inference of Isoforms from Short Sequence Reads
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Feng, Jianxing; Li, Wei; Jiang, Tao
Due to alternative splicing events in eukaryotic species, the identification of mRNA isoforms (or splicing variants) is a difficult problem. Traditional experimental methods for this purpose are time consuming and cost ineffective. The emerging RNA-Seq technology provides a possible effective method to address this problem. Although the advantages of RNA-Seq over traditional methods in transcriptome analysis have been confirmed by many studies, the inference of isoforms from millions of short sequence reads (e.g., Illumina/Solexa reads) has remained computationally challenging. In this work, we propose a method to calculate the expression levels of isoforms and infer isoforms from short RNA-Seq reads using exon-intron boundary, transcription start site (TSS) and poly-A site (PAS) information. We first formulate the relationship among exons, isoforms, and single-end reads as a convex quadratic program, and then use an efficient algorithm (called IsoInfer) to search for isoforms. IsoInfer can calculate the expression levels of isoforms accurately if all the isoforms are known and infer novel isoforms from scratch. Our experimental tests on known mouse isoforms with both simulated expression levels and reads demonstrate that IsoInfer is able to calculate the expression levels of isoforms with an accuracy comparable to the state-of-the-art statistical method and a 60 times faster speed. Moreover, our tests on both simulated and real reads show that it achieves a good precision and sensitivity in inferring isoforms when given accurate exon-intron boundary, TSS and PAS information, especially for isoforms whose expression levels are significantly high.
Mental state inference using visual control parameters.
Oztop, Erhan; Wolpert, Daniel; Kawato, Mitsuo
2005-02-01
Although we can often infer the mental states of others by observing their actions, there are currently no computational models of this remarkable ability. Here we develop a computational model of mental state inference that builds upon a generic visuomanual feedback controller, and implements mental simulation and mental state inference functions using circuitry that subserves sensorimotor control. Our goal is (1) to show that control mechanisms developed for manual manipulation are readily endowed with visual and predictive processing capabilities and thus allows a natural extension to the understanding of movements performed by others; and (2) to give an explanation on how cortical regions, in particular the parietal and premotor cortices, may be involved in such dual mechanism. To analyze the model, we simulate tasks in which an observer watches an actor performing either a reaching or a grasping movement. The observer's goal is to estimate the 'mental state' of the actor: the goal of the reaching movement or the intention of the agent performing the grasping movement. We show that the motor modules of the observer can be used in a 'simulation mode' to infer the mental state of the actor. The simulations with different grasping and non-straight line reaching strategies show that the mental state inference model is applicable to complex movements. Moreover, we simulate deceptive reaching, where an actor imposes false beliefs about his own mental state on an observer. The simulations show that computational elements developed for sensorimotor control are effective in inferring the mental states of others. The parallels between the model and cortical organization of movement suggest that primates might have developed a similar resource utilization strategy for action understanding, and thus lead to testable predictions about the brain mechanisms of mental state inference. PMID:15653289
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hacker, Scott C. (Inventor); Dean, Richard J. (Inventor); Burge, Scott W. (Inventor); Dartez, Toby W. (Inventor)
2007-01-01
An adapter for installing a connector to a terminal post, wherein the connector is attached to a cable, is presented. In an embodiment, the adapter is comprised of an elongated collet member having a longitudinal axis comprised of a first collet member end, a second collet member end, an outer collet member surface, and an inner collet member surface. The inner collet member surface at the first collet member end is used to engage the connector. The outer collet member surface at the first collet member end is tapered for a predetermined first length at a predetermined taper angle. The collet includes a longitudinal slot that extends along the longitudinal axis initiating at the first collet member end for a predetermined second length. The first collet member end is formed of a predetermined number of sections segregated by a predetermined number of channels and the longitudinal slot.
Watson, Bobby L.; Aeby, Ian
1982-01-01
An adaptive data compression device for compressing data having variable frequency content, including a plurality of digital filters for analyzing the content of the data over a plurality of frequency regions, a memory, and a control logic circuit for generating a variable rate memory clock corresponding to the analyzed frequency content of the data in the frequency region and for clocking the data into the memory in response to the variable rate memory clock.
Watson, B.L.; Aeby, I.
1980-08-26
An adaptive data compression device for compressing data is described. The device has a frequency content, including a plurality of digital filters for analyzing the content of the data over a plurality of frequency regions, a memory, and a control logic circuit for generating a variable rate memory clock corresponding to the analyzed frequency content of the data in the frequency region and for clocking the data into the memory in response to the variable rate memory clock.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Barton, P.
1987-04-01
The basic principles of adaptive antennas are outlined in terms of the Wiener-Hopf expression for maximizing signal to noise ratio in an arbitrary noise environment; the analogy with generalized matched filter theory provides a useful aid to understanding. For many applications, there is insufficient information to achieve the above solution and thus non-optimum constrained null steering algorithms are also described, together with a summary of methods for preventing wanted signals being nulled by the adaptive system. The three generic approaches to adaptive weight control are discussed; correlation steepest descent, weight perturbation and direct solutions based on sample matrix conversion. The tradeoffs between hardware complexity and performance in terms of null depth and convergence rate are outlined. The sidelobe cancellor technique is described. Performance variation with jammer power and angular distribution is summarized and the key performance limitations identified. The configuration and performance characteristics of both multiple beam and phase scan array antennas are covered, with a brief discussion of performance factors.
Estimating uncertainty of inference for validation
Booker, Jane M; Langenbrunner, James R; Hemez, Francois M; Ross, Timothy J
2010-09-30
We present a validation process based upon the concept that validation is an inference-making activity. This has always been true, but the association has not been as important before as it is now. Previously, theory had been confirmed by more data, and predictions were possible based on data. The process today is to infer from theory to code and from code to prediction, making the role of prediction somewhat automatic, and a machine function. Validation is defined as determining the degree to which a model and code is an accurate representation of experimental test data. Imbedded in validation is the intention to use the computer code to predict. To predict is to accept the conclusion that an observable final state will manifest; therefore, prediction is an inference whose goodness relies on the validity of the code. Quantifying the uncertainty of a prediction amounts to quantifying the uncertainty of validation, and this involves the characterization of uncertainties inherent in theory/models/codes and the corresponding data. An introduction to inference making and its associated uncertainty is provided as a foundation for the validation problem. A mathematical construction for estimating the uncertainty in the validation inference is then presented, including a possibility distribution constructed to represent the inference uncertainty for validation under uncertainty. The estimation of inference uncertainty for validation is illustrated using data and calculations from Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). The ICF measurements of neutron yield and ion temperature were obtained for direct-drive inertial fusion capsules at the Omega laser facility. The glass capsules, containing the fusion gas, were systematically selected with the intent of establishing a reproducible baseline of high-yield 10{sup 13}-10{sup 14} neutron output. The deuterium-tritium ratio in these experiments was varied to study its influence upon yield. This paper on validation inference is the
Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference
Sheehan, Sara; Song, Yun S.
2016-01-01
Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data) to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest). We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history). Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep) or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme. PMID:27018908
Scene Construction, Visual Foraging, and Active Inference
Mirza, M. Berk; Adams, Rick A.; Mathys, Christoph D.; Friston, Karl J.
2016-01-01
This paper describes an active inference scheme for visual searches and the perceptual synthesis entailed by scene construction. Active inference assumes that perception and action minimize variational free energy, where actions are selected to minimize the free energy expected in the future. This assumption generalizes risk-sensitive control and expected utility theory to include epistemic value; namely, the value (or salience) of information inherent in resolving uncertainty about the causes of ambiguous cues or outcomes. Here, we apply active inference to saccadic searches of a visual scene. We consider the (difficult) problem of categorizing a scene, based on the spatial relationship among visual objects where, crucially, visual cues are sampled myopically through a sequence of saccadic eye movements. This means that evidence for competing hypotheses about the scene has to be accumulated sequentially, calling upon both prediction (planning) and postdiction (memory). Our aim is to highlight some simple but fundamental aspects of the requisite functional anatomy; namely, the link between approximate Bayesian inference under mean field assumptions and functional segregation in the visual cortex. This link rests upon the (neurobiologically plausible) process theory that accompanies the normative formulation of active inference for Markov decision processes. In future work, we hope to use this scheme to model empirical saccadic searches and identify the prior beliefs that underwrite intersubject variability in the way people forage for information in visual scenes (e.g., in schizophrenia). PMID:27378899
Scene Construction, Visual Foraging, and Active Inference.
Mirza, M Berk; Adams, Rick A; Mathys, Christoph D; Friston, Karl J
2016-01-01
This paper describes an active inference scheme for visual searches and the perceptual synthesis entailed by scene construction. Active inference assumes that perception and action minimize variational free energy, where actions are selected to minimize the free energy expected in the future. This assumption generalizes risk-sensitive control and expected utility theory to include epistemic value; namely, the value (or salience) of information inherent in resolving uncertainty about the causes of ambiguous cues or outcomes. Here, we apply active inference to saccadic searches of a visual scene. We consider the (difficult) problem of categorizing a scene, based on the spatial relationship among visual objects where, crucially, visual cues are sampled myopically through a sequence of saccadic eye movements. This means that evidence for competing hypotheses about the scene has to be accumulated sequentially, calling upon both prediction (planning) and postdiction (memory). Our aim is to highlight some simple but fundamental aspects of the requisite functional anatomy; namely, the link between approximate Bayesian inference under mean field assumptions and functional segregation in the visual cortex. This link rests upon the (neurobiologically plausible) process theory that accompanies the normative formulation of active inference for Markov decision processes. In future work, we hope to use this scheme to model empirical saccadic searches and identify the prior beliefs that underwrite intersubject variability in the way people forage for information in visual scenes (e.g., in schizophrenia). PMID:27378899
Computationally efficient Bayesian inference for inverse problems.
Marzouk, Youssef M.; Najm, Habib N.; Rahn, Larry A.
2007-10-01
Bayesian statistics provides a foundation for inference from noisy and incomplete data, a natural mechanism for regularization in the form of prior information, and a quantitative assessment of uncertainty in the inferred results. Inverse problems - representing indirect estimation of model parameters, inputs, or structural components - can be fruitfully cast in this framework. Complex and computationally intensive forward models arising in physical applications, however, can render a Bayesian approach prohibitive. This difficulty is compounded by high-dimensional model spaces, as when the unknown is a spatiotemporal field. We present new algorithmic developments for Bayesian inference in this context, showing strong connections with the forward propagation of uncertainty. In particular, we introduce a stochastic spectral formulation that dramatically accelerates the Bayesian solution of inverse problems via rapid evaluation of a surrogate posterior. We also explore dimensionality reduction for the inference of spatiotemporal fields, using truncated spectral representations of Gaussian process priors. These new approaches are demonstrated on scalar transport problems arising in contaminant source inversion and in the inference of inhomogeneous material or transport properties. We also present a Bayesian framework for parameter estimation in stochastic models, where intrinsic stochasticity may be intermingled with observational noise. Evaluation of a likelihood function may not be analytically tractable in these cases, and thus several alternative Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) schemes, operating on the product space of the observations and the parameters, are introduced.
Deep Learning for Population Genetic Inference.
Sheehan, Sara; Song, Yun S
2016-03-01
Given genomic variation data from multiple individuals, computing the likelihood of complex population genetic models is often infeasible. To circumvent this problem, we introduce a novel likelihood-free inference framework by applying deep learning, a powerful modern technique in machine learning. Deep learning makes use of multilayer neural networks to learn a feature-based function from the input (e.g., hundreds of correlated summary statistics of data) to the output (e.g., population genetic parameters of interest). We demonstrate that deep learning can be effectively employed for population genetic inference and learning informative features of data. As a concrete application, we focus on the challenging problem of jointly inferring natural selection and demography (in the form of a population size change history). Our method is able to separate the global nature of demography from the local nature of selection, without sequential steps for these two factors. Studying demography and selection jointly is motivated by Drosophila, where pervasive selection confounds demographic analysis. We apply our method to 197 African Drosophila melanogaster genomes from Zambia to infer both their overall demography, and regions of their genome under selection. We find many regions of the genome that have experienced hard sweeps, and fewer under selection on standing variation (soft sweep) or balancing selection. Interestingly, we find that soft sweeps and balancing selection occur more frequently closer to the centromere of each chromosome. In addition, our demographic inference suggests that previously estimated bottlenecks for African Drosophila melanogaster are too extreme. PMID:27018908
Hierarchical cosmic shear power spectrum inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alsing, Justin; Heavens, Alan; Jaffe, Andrew H.; Kiessling, Alina; Wandelt, Benjamin; Hoffmann, Till
2016-02-01
We develop a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach for cosmic shear power spectrum inference, jointly sampling from the posterior distribution of the cosmic shear field and its (tomographic) power spectra. Inference of the shear power spectrum is a powerful intermediate product for a cosmic shear analysis, since it requires very few model assumptions and can be used to perform inference on a wide range of cosmological models a posteriori without loss of information. We show that joint posterior for the shear map and power spectrum can be sampled effectively by Gibbs sampling, iteratively drawing samples from the map and power spectrum, each conditional on the other. This approach neatly circumvents difficulties associated with complicated survey geometry and masks that plague frequentist power spectrum estimators, since the power spectrum inference provides prior information about the field in masked regions at every sampling step. We demonstrate this approach for inference of tomographic shear E-mode, B-mode and EB-cross power spectra from a simulated galaxy shear catalogue with a number of important features; galaxies distributed on the sky and in redshift with photometric redshift uncertainties, realistic random ellipticity noise for every galaxy and a complicated survey mask. The obtained posterior distributions for the tomographic power spectrum coefficients recover the underlying simulated power spectra for both E- and B-modes.
Inferring learners' knowledge from their actions.
Rafferty, Anna N; LaMar, Michelle M; Griffiths, Thomas L
2015-04-01
Watching another person take actions to complete a goal and making inferences about that person's knowledge is a relatively natural task for people. This ability can be especially important in educational settings, where the inferences can be used for assessment, diagnosing misconceptions, and providing informative feedback. In this paper, we develop a general framework for automatically making such inferences based on observed actions; this framework is particularly relevant for inferring student knowledge in educational games and other interactive virtual environments. Our approach relies on modeling action planning: We formalize the problem as a Markov decision process in which one must choose what actions to take to complete a goal, where choices will be dependent on one's beliefs about how actions affect the environment. We use a variation of inverse reinforcement learning to infer these beliefs. Through two lab experiments, we show that this model can recover people's beliefs in a simple environment, with accuracy comparable to that of human observers. We then demonstrate that the model can be used to provide real-time feedback and to model data from an existing educational game. PMID:25155381
Cluster Mass Inference via Random Field Theory
Zhang, Hui; Nichols, Thomas E.; Johnson, Timothy D.
2009-01-01
Cluster extent and voxel intensity are two widely used statistics in neuroimaging inference. Cluster extent is sensitive to spatially extended signals while voxel intensity is better for intense but focal signals. In order to leverage strength from both statistics, several nonparametric permutation methods have been proposed to combine the two methods. Simulation studies have shown that of the different cluster permutation methods, the cluster mass statistic is generally the best. However, to date, there is no parametric cluster mass inference method available. In this paper, we propose a cluster mass inference method based on random field theory (RFT). We develop this method for Gaussian images, evaluate it on Gaussian and Gaussianized t-statistic images and investigate its statistical properties via simulation studies and real data. Simulation results show that the method is valid under the null hypothesis and demonstrate that it can be more powerful than the cluster extent inference method. Further, analyses with a single-subject and a group fMRI dataset demonstrate better power than traditional cluster extent inference, and good accuracy relative to a gold-standard permutation test. PMID:18805493
Reliability of the Granger causality inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhou, Douglas; Zhang, Yaoyu; Xiao, Yanyang; Cai, David
2014-04-01
How to characterize information flows in physical, biological, and social systems remains a major theoretical challenge. Granger causality (GC) analysis has been widely used to investigate information flow through causal interactions. We address one of the central questions in GC analysis, that is, the reliability of the GC evaluation and its implications for the causal structures extracted by this analysis. Our work reveals that the manner in which a continuous dynamical process is projected or coarse-grained to a discrete process has a profound impact on the reliability of the GC inference, and different sampling may potentially yield completely opposite inferences. This inference hazard is present for both linear and nonlinear processes. We emphasize that there is a hazard of reaching incorrect conclusions about network topologies, even including statistical (such as small-world or scale-free) properties of the networks, when GC analysis is blindly applied to infer the network topology. We demonstrate this using a small-world network for which a drastic loss of small-world attributes occurs in the reconstructed network using the standard GC approach. We further show how to resolve the paradox that the GC analysis seemingly becomes less reliable when more information is incorporated using finer and finer sampling. Finally, we present strategies to overcome these inference artifacts in order to obtain a reliable GC result.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Pillow, Bradford H.; Pearson, RaeAnne M.; Hecht, Mary; Bremer, Amanda
2010-01-01
Children and adults rated their own certainty following inductive inferences, deductive inferences, and guesses. Beginning in kindergarten, participants rated deductions as more certain than weak inductions or guesses. Deductions were rated as more certain than strong inductions beginning in Grade 3, and fourth-grade children and adults…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Nokes, Jeffery D.
2008-01-01
The Observation/Inference (OI) Chart is a strategy that can help students learn to make observations and inferences when reading nontraditional texts such as artifacts, paintings or movies. Nontraditional texts can be highly engaging and provide authentic thinking experiences for students, but they can also be difficult to comprehend. Teachers can…
Using Alien Coins to Test Whether Simple Inference Is Bayesian
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Cassey, Peter; Hawkins, Guy E.; Donkin, Chris; Brown, Scott D.
2016-01-01
Reasoning and inference are well-studied aspects of basic cognition that have been explained as statistically optimal Bayesian inference. Using a simplified experimental design, we conducted quantitative comparisons between Bayesian inference and human inference at the level of individuals. In 3 experiments, with more than 13,000 participants, we…
Dynamical inference of hidden biological populations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Luchinsky, D. G.; Smelyanskiy, V. N.; Millonas, M.; McClintock, P. V. E.
2008-10-01
Population fluctuations in a predator-prey system are analyzed for the case where the number of prey could be determined, subject to measurement noise, but the number of predators was unknown. The problem of how to infer the unmeasured predator dynamics, as well as the model parameters, is addressed. Two solutions are suggested. In the first of these, measurement noise and the dynamical noise in the equation for predator population are neglected; the problem is reduced to a one-dimensional case, and a Bayesian dynamical inference algorithm is employed to reconstruct the model parameters. In the second solution a full-scale Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to infer both the unknown predator trajectory, and also the model parameters, using the one-dimensional solution as an initial guess.
Inferences from counterfactual threats and promises.
Egan, Suzanne M; Byrne, Ruth M J
2012-01-01
We examine how people understand and reason from counterfactual threats, for example, "if you had hit your sister, I would have grounded you" and counterfactual promises, for example, "if you had tidied your room, I would have given you ice-cream." The first experiment shows that people consider counterfactual threats, but not counterfactual promises, to have the illocutionary force of an inducement. They also make the immediate inference that the action mentioned in the "if" part of the counterfactual threat and promise did not occur. The second experiment shows that people make more negative inferences (modus tollens and denial of the antecedent) than affirmative inferences (modus ponens and affirmation of the consequent) from counterfactual threats and promises, unlike indicative threats and promises. We discuss the implications of the results for theories of the mental representations and cognitive processes that underlie conditional inducements. PMID:22580411
Identification and Inference for Econometric Models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Andrews, Donald W. K.; Stock, James H.
2005-07-01
This volume contains the papers presented in honor of the lifelong achievements of Thomas J. Rothenberg on the occasion of his retirement. The authors of the chapters include many of the leading econometricians of our day, and the chapters address topics of current research significance in econometric theory. The chapters cover four themes: identification and efficient estimation in econometrics, asymptotic approximations to the distributions of econometric estimators and tests, inference involving potentially nonstationary time series, such as processes that might have a unit autoregressive root, and nonparametric and semiparametric inference. Several of the chapters provide overviews and treatments of basic conceptual issues, while others advance our understanding of the properties of existing econometric procedures and/or propose new ones. Specific topics include identification in nonlinear models, inference with weak instruments, tests for nonstationary in time series and panel data, generalized empirical likelihood estimation, and the bootstrap.
Single board system for fuzzy inference
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Symon, James R.; Watanabe, Hiroyuki
1991-01-01
The very large scale integration (VLSI) implementation of a fuzzy logic inference mechanism allows the use of rule-based control and decision making in demanding real-time applications. Researchers designed a full custom VLSI inference engine. The chip was fabricated using CMOS technology. The chip consists of 688,000 transistors of which 476,000 are used for RAM memory. The fuzzy logic inference engine board system incorporates the custom designed integrated circuit into a standard VMEbus environment. The Fuzzy Logic system uses Transistor-Transistor Logic (TTL) parts to provide the interface between the Fuzzy chip and a standard, double height VMEbus backplane, allowing the chip to perform application process control through the VMEbus host. High level C language functions hide details of the hardware system interface from the applications level programmer. The first version of the board was installed on a robot at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in January of 1990.
Automatic transformations in the inference process
Veroff, R. L.
1980-07-01
A technique for incorporating automatic transformations into processes such as the application of inference rules, subsumption, and demodulation provides a mechanism for improving search strategies for theorem proving problems arising from the field of program verification. The incorporation of automatic transformations into the inference process can alter the search space for a given problem, and is particularly useful for problems having broad rather than deep proofs. The technique can also be used to permit the generation of inferences that might otherwise be blocked and to build some commutativity or associativity into the unification process. Appropriate choice of transformations, and new literal clashing and unification algorithms for applying them, showed significant improvement on several real problems according to several distinct criteria. 22 references, 1 figure.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Deglint, Jason; Kazemzadeh, Farnoud; Wong, Alexander; Clausi, David A.
2015-09-01
One method to acquire multispectral images is to sequentially capture a series of images where each image contains information from a different bandwidth of light. Another method is to use a series of beamsplitters and dichroic filters to guide different bandwidths of light onto different cameras. However, these methods are very time consuming and expensive and perform poorly in dynamic scenes or when observing transient phenomena. An alternative strategy to capturing multispectral data is to infer this data using sparse spectral reflectance measurements captured using an imaging device with overlapping bandpass filters, such as a consumer digital camera using a Bayer filter pattern. Currently the only method of inferring dense reflectance spectra is the Wiener adaptive filter, which makes Gaussian assumptions about the data. However, these assumptions may not always hold true for all data. We propose a new technique to infer dense reflectance spectra from sparse spectral measurements through the use of a non-linear regression model. The non-linear regression model used in this technique is the random forest model, which is an ensemble of decision trees and trained via the spectral characterization of the optical imaging system and spectral data pair generation. This model is then evaluated by spectrally characterizing different patches on the Macbeth color chart, as well as by reconstructing inferred multispectral images. Results show that the proposed technique can produce inferred dense reflectance spectra that correlate well with the true dense reflectance spectra, which illustrates the merits of the technique.
Phylodynamic Inference with Kernel ABC and Its Application to HIV Epidemiology
Poon, Art F.Y.
2015-01-01
The shapes of phylogenetic trees relating virus populations are determined by the adaptation of viruses within each host, and by the transmission of viruses among hosts. Phylodynamic inference attempts to reverse this flow of information, estimating parameters of these processes from the shape of a virus phylogeny reconstructed from a sample of genetic sequences from the epidemic. A key challenge to phylodynamic inference is quantifying the similarity between two trees in an efficient and comprehensive way. In this study, I demonstrate that a new distance measure, based on a subset tree kernel function from computational linguistics, confers a significant improvement over previous measures of tree shape for classifying trees generated under different epidemiological scenarios. Next, I incorporate this kernel-based distance measure into an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework for phylodynamic inference. ABC bypasses the need for an analytical solution of model likelihood, as it only requires the ability to simulate data from the model. I validate this “kernel-ABC” method for phylodynamic inference by estimating parameters from data simulated under a simple epidemiological model. Results indicate that kernel-ABC attained greater accuracy for parameters associated with virus transmission than leading software on the same data sets. Finally, I apply the kernel-ABC framework to study a recent outbreak of a recombinant HIV subtype in China. Kernel-ABC provides a versatile framework for phylodynamic inference because it can fit a broader range of models than methods that rely on the computation of exact likelihoods. PMID:26006189
A formal model of interpersonal inference
Moutoussis, Michael; Trujillo-Barreto, Nelson J.; El-Deredy, Wael; Dolan, Raymond J.; Friston, Karl J.
2014-01-01
Introduction: We propose that active Bayesian inference—a general framework for decision-making—can equally be applied to interpersonal exchanges. Social cognition, however, entails special challenges. We address these challenges through a novel formulation of a formal model and demonstrate its psychological significance. Method: We review relevant literature, especially with regards to interpersonal representations, formulate a mathematical model and present a simulation study. The model accommodates normative models from utility theory and places them within the broader setting of Bayesian inference. Crucially, we endow people's prior beliefs, into which utilities are absorbed, with preferences of self and others. The simulation illustrates the model's dynamics and furnishes elementary predictions of the theory. Results: (1) Because beliefs about self and others inform both the desirability and plausibility of outcomes, in this framework interpersonal representations become beliefs that have to be actively inferred. This inference, akin to “mentalizing” in the psychological literature, is based upon the outcomes of interpersonal exchanges. (2) We show how some well-known social-psychological phenomena (e.g., self-serving biases) can be explained in terms of active interpersonal inference. (3) Mentalizing naturally entails Bayesian updating of how people value social outcomes. Crucially this includes inference about one's own qualities and preferences. Conclusion: We inaugurate a Bayes optimal framework for modeling intersubject variability in mentalizing during interpersonal exchanges. Here, interpersonal representations are endowed with explicit functional and affective properties. We suggest the active inference framework lends itself to the study of psychiatric conditions where mentalizing is distorted. PMID:24723872
Gene-network inference by message passing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Braunstein, A.; Pagnani, A.; Weigt, M.; Zecchina, R.
2008-01-01
The inference of gene-regulatory processes from gene-expression data belongs to the major challenges of computational systems biology. Here we address the problem from a statistical-physics perspective and develop a message-passing algorithm which is able to infer sparse, directed and combinatorial regulatory mechanisms. Using the replica technique, the algorithmic performance can be characterized analytically for artificially generated data. The algorithm is applied to genome-wide expression data of baker's yeast under various environmental conditions. We find clear cases of combinatorial control, and enrichment in common functional annotations of regulated genes and their regulators.
Inference System Integration Via Logic Morphisms
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bjorner, Nikolaj S.; Espinosa, David
2000-01-01
This is a final report on the accomplishments during the period of the NASA grant. The work on inference servers accomplished the integration of the SLANG logic (Specware's default specification logic) with a number of inference servers in order to make their complementary strengths available. These inverence servers are (1) SNARK. (2) Gandalf, Setheo, and Spass, (3) the Prototype Verification System (PVS) from SRI. (4) HOL98. We designed and implemented MetaSlang, an ML-like language, which we are using to specify and implement all our logic morphisms.
A Novel Tool for the Spectroscopic Inference of Fundamental Stellar Parameters
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Czekala, Ian; Andrews, Sean M.; Latham, David W.; Torres, Guillermo
2014-06-01
We present a novel approach for making accurate and unbiased inferences of fundamental stellar parameters (e.g., effective temperature, surface gravity, metallicity) from spectroscopic observations, with reference to a library of synthetic spectra. The forward-modeling formalism we have developed is generic (easily adaptable to data from any instrument or covering any wavelength range) and modular, in that it can incorporate external prior knowledge or additional data (e.g., broadband photometry) and account for instrumental and non-stellar effects on the spectrum (e.g., parametric treatments of extinction, spots, etc.). An approach that employs adaptive correlated noise is used to account for systematic discrepancies between the observations and the synthetic spectral library, ensuring that issues like uncertainties in atomic or molecular constants do not strongly bias the parameter inferences. In addition to extracting a set of unbiased inferences of the (posterior) probability distributions for basic stellar parameters, our modeling approach also "maps" out problematic spectral regions in the synthetic libraries that could be used as a basis for improving the models. As a demonstration, we present some preliminary results from modeling optical spectra of well-characterized exoplanet host stars and nearby pre-main sequence stars. A basic set of adaptable software that performs this modeling approach will be released publicly.
Adaptive Thouless-Anderson-Palmer approach to inverse Ising problems with quenched random fields.
Huang, Haiping; Kabashima, Yoshiyuki
2013-06-01
The adaptive Thouless-Anderson-Palmer equation is derived for inverse Ising problems in the presence of quenched random fields. We test the proposed scheme on Sherrington-Kirkpatrick, Hopfield, and random orthogonal models and find that the adaptive Thouless-Anderson-Palmer approach allows accurate inference of quenched random fields whose distribution can be either Gaussian or bimodal. In particular, another competitive method for inferring external fields, namely, the naive mean field method with diagonal weights, is compared and discussed. PMID:23848649
Evidence for archaic adaptive introgression in humans
Racimo, Fernando; Sankararaman, Sriram; Nielsen, Rasmus; Huerta-Sánchez, Emilia
2015-01-01
As modern and ancient DNA sequence data from diverse human populations accumulate1–4, evidence is increasing in support of the existence of beneficial variants acquired from archaic humans that may have accelerated adaptation and improved survival in new environments — a process, known as adaptive introgression (AI). Within the past couple of years, a series of studies5–8 have identified genomic regions showing strong evidence for archaic adaptive introgression. In this Review, we provide an overview of the statistical methods developed to identify archaic introgressed fragments in the genome sequences of modern humans, and to determine whether positive selection has acted on these fragments. We discuss recently reported examples of adaptive introgression and consider the level of supporting evidence for each, grouped by selection pressure. We discuss challenges and recommendations for inferring selection on introgressed regions. PMID:25963373
A framework for constructing adaptive and reconfigurable systems
Poirot, Pierre-Etienne; Nogiec, Jerzy; Ren, Shangping; /IIT, Chicago
2007-05-01
This paper presents a software approach to augmenting existing real-time systems with self-adaptation capabilities. In this approach, based on the control loop paradigm commonly used in industrial control, self-adaptation is decomposed into observing system events, inferring necessary changes based on a system's functional model, and activating appropriate adaptation procedures. The solution adopts an architectural decomposition that emphasizes independence and separation of concerns. It encapsulates observation, modeling and correction into separate modules to allow for easier customization of the adaptive behavior and flexibility in selecting implementation technologies.
Causal Inferences with Group Based Trajectory Models
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Haviland, Amelia M.; Nagin, Daniel S.
2005-01-01
A central theme of research on human development and psychopathology is whether a therapeutic intervention or a turning-point event, such as a family break-up, alters the trajectory of the behavior under study. This paper lays out and applies a method for using observational longitudinal data to make more confident causal inferences about the…
What Children Infer from Social Categories
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Diesendruck, Gil; Eldror, Ehud
2011-01-01
Children hold the belief that social categories have essences. We investigated what kinds of properties children feel licensed to infer about a person based on social category membership. Seventy-two 4-6-year-olds were introduced to novel social categories defined as having one internal--psychological or biological--and one external--behavioral or…
Inference and the Introductory Statistics Course
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Pfannkuch, Maxine; Regan, Matt; Wild, Chris; Budgett, Stephanie; Forbes, Sharleen; Harraway, John; Parsonage, Ross
2011-01-01
This article sets out some of the rationale and arguments for making major changes to the teaching and learning of statistical inference in introductory courses at our universities by changing from a norm-based, mathematical approach to more conceptually accessible computer-based approaches. The core problem of the inferential argument with its…
Making statistical inferences about software reliability
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Miller, Douglas R.
1988-01-01
Failure times of software undergoing random debugging can be modelled as order statistics of independent but nonidentically distributed exponential random variables. Using this model inferences can be made about current reliability and, if debugging continues, future reliability. This model also shows the difficulty inherent in statistical verification of very highly reliable software such as that used by digital avionics in commercial aircraft.
Making statistical inferences about software reliability
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Miller, Douglas R.
1986-01-01
Failure times of software undergoing random debugging can be modeled as order statistics of independent but nonidentically distributed exponential random variables. Using this model inferences can be made about current reliability and, if debugging continues, future reliability. This model also shows the difficulty inherent in statistical verification of very highly reliable software such as that used by digital avionics in commercial aircraft.
Elaborative Inferences on an Expository Text.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Durgunoglu, Aydin Y.; Jehng, Jihn-Chang J.
1991-01-01
The distinction between remembering text information and applying the acquired knowledge (making inferences) was studied with a dissociation paradigm, using 110 undergraduates who performed verification and recognition tasks. The same variables did not affect performance on the two tasks. Text organization affected recognition but not verification…
Inference and Children's Comprehension of Pronouns.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Wykes, Til
1981-01-01
Investigated five-year-olds' abilities to determine the reference of anaphoric pronouns. Children had difficulty when a sentence contained more than one pronoun, especially when assigning the reference of a pronoun requiring an inference. The children's difficulties stemmed from forgetting premise information and from having problems in carrying…
Efficient Bayesian inference for ARFIMA processes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Graves, T.; Gramacy, R. B.; Franzke, C. L. E.; Watkins, N. W.
2015-03-01
Many geophysical quantities, like atmospheric temperature, water levels in rivers, and wind speeds, have shown evidence of long-range dependence (LRD). LRD means that these quantities experience non-trivial temporal memory, which potentially enhances their predictability, but also hampers the detection of externally forced trends. Thus, it is important to reliably identify whether or not a system exhibits LRD. In this paper we present a modern and systematic approach to the inference of LRD. Rather than Mandelbrot's fractional Gaussian noise, we use the more flexible Autoregressive Fractional Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model which is widely used in time series analysis, and of increasing interest in climate science. Unlike most previous work on the inference of LRD, which is frequentist in nature, we provide a systematic treatment of Bayesian inference. In particular, we provide a new approximate likelihood for efficient parameter inference, and show how nuisance parameters (e.g. short memory effects) can be integrated over in order to focus on long memory parameters, and hypothesis testing more directly. We illustrate our new methodology on the Nile water level data, with favorable comparison to the standard estimators.
Tactile length contraction as Bayesian inference.
Tong, Jonathan; Ngo, Vy; Goldreich, Daniel
2016-08-01
To perceive, the brain must interpret stimulus-evoked neural activity. This is challenging: The stochastic nature of the neural response renders its interpretation inherently uncertain. Perception would be optimized if the brain used Bayesian inference to interpret inputs in light of expectations derived from experience. Bayesian inference would improve perception on average but cause illusions when stimuli violate expectation. Intriguingly, tactile, auditory, and visual perception are all prone to length contraction illusions, characterized by the dramatic underestimation of the distance between punctate stimuli delivered in rapid succession; the origin of these illusions has been mysterious. We previously proposed that length contraction illusions occur because the brain interprets punctate stimulus sequences using Bayesian inference with a low-velocity expectation. A novel prediction of our Bayesian observer model is that length contraction should intensify if stimuli are made more difficult to localize. Here we report a tactile psychophysical study that tested this prediction. Twenty humans compared two distances on the forearm: a fixed reference distance defined by two taps with 1-s temporal separation and an adjustable comparison distance defined by two taps with temporal separation t ≤ 1 s. We observed significant length contraction: As t was decreased, participants perceived the two distances as equal only when the comparison distance was made progressively greater than the reference distance. Furthermore, the use of weaker taps significantly enhanced participants' length contraction. These findings confirm the model's predictions, supporting the view that the spatiotemporal percept is a best estimate resulting from a Bayesian inference process. PMID:27121574
John Updike and Norman Mailer: Sport Inferences.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Upshaw, Kathryn Jane
The phenomenon of writer use of sport inferences in the literary genre of the novel is examined in the works of Updike and Mailer. Novels of both authors were reviewed in order to study the pattern of usage in each novel. From these patterns, concepts which illustrated the sport philosophies of each author were used for general comparisons of the…
Campbell's and Rubin's Perspectives on Causal Inference
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
West, Stephen G.; Thoemmes, Felix
2010-01-01
Donald Campbell's approach to causal inference (D. T. Campbell, 1957; W. R. Shadish, T. D. Cook, & D. T. Campbell, 2002) is widely used in psychology and education, whereas Donald Rubin's causal model (P. W. Holland, 1986; D. B. Rubin, 1974, 2005) is widely used in economics, statistics, medicine, and public health. Campbell's approach focuses on…
Investigating Mathematics Teachers' Thoughts of Statistical Inference
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Yang, Kai-Lin
2012-01-01
Research on statistical cognition and application suggests that statistical inference concepts are commonly misunderstood by students and even misinterpreted by researchers. Although some research has been done on students' misunderstanding or misconceptions of confidence intervals (CIs), few studies explore either students' or mathematics…
Decision generation tools and Bayesian inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jannson, Tomasz; Wang, Wenjian; Forrester, Thomas; Kostrzewski, Andrew; Veeris, Christian; Nielsen, Thomas
2014-05-01
Digital Decision Generation (DDG) tools are important software sub-systems of Command and Control (C2) systems and technologies. In this paper, we present a special type of DDGs based on Bayesian Inference, related to adverse (hostile) networks, including such important applications as terrorism-related networks and organized crime ones.
Linguistic Markers of Inference Generation While Reading
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Clinton, Virginia; Carlson, Sarah E.; Seipel, Ben
2016-01-01
Words can be informative linguistic markers of psychological constructs. The purpose of this study is to examine associations between word use and the process of making meaningful connections to a text while reading (i.e., inference generation). To achieve this purpose, think-aloud data from third-fifth grade students (N = 218) reading narrative…
Evolutionary inference via the Poisson Indel Process.
Bouchard-Côté, Alexandre; Jordan, Michael I
2013-01-22
We address the problem of the joint statistical inference of phylogenetic trees and multiple sequence alignments from unaligned molecular sequences. This problem is generally formulated in terms of string-valued evolutionary processes along the branches of a phylogenetic tree. The classic evolutionary process, the TKF91 model [Thorne JL, Kishino H, Felsenstein J (1991) J Mol Evol 33(2):114-124] is a continuous-time Markov chain model composed of insertion, deletion, and substitution events. Unfortunately, this model gives rise to an intractable computational problem: The computation of the marginal likelihood under the TKF91 model is exponential in the number of taxa. In this work, we present a stochastic process, the Poisson Indel Process (PIP), in which the complexity of this computation is reduced to linear. The Poisson Indel Process is closely related to the TKF91 model, differing only in its treatment of insertions, but it has a global characterization as a Poisson process on the phylogeny. Standard results for Poisson processes allow key computations to be decoupled, which yields the favorable computational profile of inference under the PIP model. We present illustrative experiments in which Bayesian inference under the PIP model is compared with separate inference of phylogenies and alignments. PMID:23275296
Rates inferred from the space debris catalog
Canavan, G.H.
1996-08-01
Collision and fragmentation rates are inferred from the AFSPC space debris catalog and compare with estimates from other treatments. The collision rate is evaluated without approximation. The fragmentation rate requires additional empirical assessments. The number of fragments per collision is low compared to analytic and numerical treatments, is peaked low, and falls rapidly with altitude.
Causal Inferences in the Campbellian Validity System
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Lund, Thorleif
2010-01-01
The purpose of the present paper is to critically examine causal inferences and internal validity as defined by Campbell and co-workers. Several arguments are given against their counterfactual effect definition, and this effect definition should be considered inadequate for causal research in general. Moreover, their defined independence between…
An evaluation of explanations of probabilistic inference.
Suermondt, H. J.; Cooper, G. F.
1992-01-01
Providing explanations of the conclusions of decision-support systems can be viewed as presenting inference results in a manner that enhances the user's insight into how these results were obtained. The ability to explain inferences has been demonstrated to be an important factor in making medical decision-support systems acceptable for clinical use. Although many researchers in artificial intelligence have explored the automatic generation of explanations for decision-support systems based on symbolic reasoning, research in automated explanation of probabilistic results has been limited. We present the results of an an evaluation study of INSITE, a program that explains the reasoning of decision-support systems based on Bayesian belief networks. In the domain of anesthesia, we compared subjects who had access to a belief network with explanations of the inference results, to control subjects who used the same belief network without explanations. We show that, compared to control subjects, the explanation subjects demonstrated greater diagnostic accuracy, were more confident about their conclusions, were more critical of the belief network, and found the presentation of the inference results more clear. PMID:1482939
Connecting Scientific Reasoning and Causal Inference
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kuhn, Deanna; Dean, David, Jr.
2004-01-01
Literature on multivariable causal inference (MCI) and literature on scientific reasoning (SR) have proceeded almost entirely independently, although they in large part address the same phenomena. An effort is made to bring these paradigms into close enough alignment with one another to compare implications of the two lines of work and examine how…
Statistical Inference in Retrieval Effectiveness Evaluation.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Savoy, Jacques
1997-01-01
Discussion of evaluation methodology in information retrieval focuses on the average precision over a set of fixed recall values in an effort to evaluate the retrieval effectiveness of a search algorithm. Highlights include a review of traditional evaluation methodology with examples; and a statistical inference methodology called bootstrap.…
Pediatric Pain, Predictive Inference, and Sensitivity Analysis.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Weiss, Robert
1994-01-01
Coping style and effects of counseling intervention on pain tolerance was studied for 61 elementary school students through immersion of hands in cold water. Bayesian predictive inference tools are able to distinguish between subject characteristics and manipulable treatments. Sensitivity analysis strengthens the certainty of conclusions about…
Double jeopardy in inferring cognitive processes
Fific, Mario
2014-01-01
Inferences we make about underlying cognitive processes can be jeopardized in two ways due to problematic forms of aggregation. First, averaging across individuals is typically considered a very useful tool for removing random variability. The threat is that averaging across subjects leads to averaging across different cognitive strategies, thus harming our inferences. The second threat comes from the construction of inadequate research designs possessing a low diagnostic accuracy of cognitive processes. For that reason we introduced the systems factorial technology (SFT), which has primarily been designed to make inferences about underlying processing order (serial, parallel, coactive), stopping rule (terminating, exhaustive), and process dependency. SFT proposes that the minimal research design complexity to learn about n number of cognitive processes should be equal to 2n. In addition, SFT proposes that (a) each cognitive process should be controlled by a separate experimental factor, and (b) The saliency levels of all factors should be combined in a full factorial design. In the current study, the author cross combined the levels of jeopardies in a 2 × 2 analysis, leading to four different analysis conditions. The results indicate a decline in the diagnostic accuracy of inferences made about cognitive processes due to the presence of each jeopardy in isolation and when combined. The results warrant the development of more individual subject analyses and the utilization of full-factorial (SFT) experimental designs. PMID:25374545
Reliability of inferred age, and coincidence between inferred age and chronological age.
Kataoka, J; Ohara, S; Shibata, S; Maie, K
1996-06-01
Outdoor research is restricted by many factors. The age inference was one of the biggest problems for the outdoor researchers. We have investigated the reliability of inferred age for the Japanese people, and took out the estimation formula for the age, even if it was based on the inferred age. The age classification was the most popular method for this purpose, and there were many classifications. We took the classification of young, middle aged, and elderly groups, in which classification of the SDs were rather small, that is, 4, 5, and 7 years for the young, middle aged, and elderly age groups, respectively. PMID:9551138
Neural-fuzzy controller for real-time mobile robot navigation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ng, Kim C.; Trivedi, Mohan M.
1996-06-01
A neural integrated fuzzy controller (NiF-T), which integrates the fuzzy logic representation of human knowledge with the learning capability of neural networks, is developed for nonlinear dynamic control problems. The NiF-T architecture comprises three distinct parts: (1) fuzzy logic membership functions (FMF), (2) rule neural network (RNN), and (3) output-refinement neural network (ORNN). FMF are utilized to fuzzify input parameters. RNN interpolates the fuzzy rule set; after defuzzification, the output is used to train ORNN. The weights of the ORNN can be adjusted on-line to fine-tune the controller. NiF-T can be applied for a wide range of sensor-driven robotics applications, which are characterized by high noise levels and nonlinear behavior, and where system models are unavailable or are unreliable. In this paper, real-time implementations of autonomous mobile robot navigation utilizing the NiF-T are realized. Only five rules were used to train the wall following behavior, while nine were used for the hall centering. With learning capability, the robot, SMAR-T, successfully and reliably hugs wall, and locks onto hall center. For all of the described behaviors, their RNNs are trained only for a few hundred iterations and so are their ORNNs trained only for less than one hundred iterations to learn their parent rule sets.
ANUBIS: artificial neuromodulation using a Bayesian inference system.
Smith, Benjamin J H; Saaj, Chakravarthini M; Allouis, Elie
2013-01-01
Gain tuning is a crucial part of controller design and depends not only on an accurate understanding of the system in question, but also on the designer's ability to predict what disturbances and other perturbations the system will encounter throughout its operation. This letter presents ANUBIS (artificial neuromodulation using a Bayesian inference system), a novel biologically inspired technique for automatically tuning controller parameters in real time. ANUBIS is based on the Bayesian brain concept and modifies it by incorporating a model of the neuromodulatory system comprising four artificial neuromodulators. It has been applied to the controller of EchinoBot, a prototype walking rover for Martian exploration. ANUBIS has been implemented at three levels of the controller; gait generation, foot trajectory planning using Bézier curves, and foot trajectory tracking using a terminal sliding mode controller. We compare the results to a similar system that has been tuned using a multilayer perceptron. The use of Bayesian inference means that the system retains mathematical interpretability, unlike other intelligent tuning techniques, which use neural networks, fuzzy logic, or evolutionary algorithms. The simulation results show that ANUBIS provides significant improvements in efficiency and adaptability of the three controller components; it allows the robot to react to obstacles and uncertainties faster than the system tuned with the MLP, while maintaining stability and accuracy. As well as advancing rover autonomy, ANUBIS could also be applied to other situations where operating conditions are likely to change or cannot be accurately modeled in advance, such as process control. In addition, it demonstrates one way in which neuromodulation could fit into the Bayesian brain framework. PMID:22970879
An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.
2014-03-01
Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.
Pointwise probability reinforcements for robust statistical inference.
Frénay, Benoît; Verleysen, Michel
2014-02-01
Statistical inference using machine learning techniques may be difficult with small datasets because of abnormally frequent data (AFDs). AFDs are observations that are much more frequent in the training sample that they should be, with respect to their theoretical probability, and include e.g. outliers. Estimates of parameters tend to be biased towards models which support such data. This paper proposes to introduce pointwise probability reinforcements (PPRs): the probability of each observation is reinforced by a PPR and a regularisation allows controlling the amount of reinforcement which compensates for AFDs. The proposed solution is very generic, since it can be used to robustify any statistical inference method which can be formulated as a likelihood maximisation. Experiments show that PPRs can be easily used to tackle regression, classification and projection: models are freed from the influence of outliers. Moreover, outliers can be filtered manually since an abnormality degree is obtained for each observation. PMID:24300550
Constructing inferences during narrative text comprehension.
Graesser, A C; Singer, M; Trabasso, T
1994-07-01
The authors describe a constructionist theory that accounts for the knowledge-based inferences that are constructed when readers comprehend narrative text. Readers potentially generate a rich variety of inferences when they construct a referential situation model of what the text is about. The proposed constructionist theory specifies that some, but not all, of this information is constructed under most conditions of comprehension. The distinctive assumptions of the constructionist theory embrace a principle of search (or effort) after meaning. According to this principle, readers attempt to construct a meaning representation that addresses the reader's goals, that is coherent at both local and global levels, and that explains why actions, events, and states are mentioned in the text. This study reviews empirical evidence that addresses this theory and contrasts it with alternative theoretical frameworks. PMID:7938337
Dopamine, reward learning, and active inference
FitzGerald, Thomas H. B.; Dolan, Raymond J.; Friston, Karl
2015-01-01
Temporal difference learning models propose phasic dopamine signaling encodes reward prediction errors that drive learning. This is supported by studies where optogenetic stimulation of dopamine neurons can stand in lieu of actual reward. Nevertheless, a large body of data also shows that dopamine is not necessary for learning, and that dopamine depletion primarily affects task performance. We offer a resolution to this paradox based on an hypothesis that dopamine encodes the precision of beliefs about alternative actions, and thus controls the outcome-sensitivity of behavior. We extend an active inference scheme for solving Markov decision processes to include learning, and show that simulated dopamine dynamics strongly resemble those actually observed during instrumental conditioning. Furthermore, simulated dopamine depletion impairs performance but spares learning, while simulated excitation of dopamine neurons drives reward learning, through aberrant inference about outcome states. Our formal approach provides a novel and parsimonious reconciliation of apparently divergent experimental findings. PMID:26581305
The NIFTY way of Bayesian signal inference
Selig, Marco
2014-12-05
We introduce NIFTY, 'Numerical Information Field Theory', a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTY can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTY as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D{sup 3}PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy.
Inferring network topology via the propagation process
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zeng, An
2013-11-01
Inferring the network topology from the dynamics is a fundamental problem, with wide applications in geology, biology, and even counter-terrorism. Based on the propagation process, we present a simple method to uncover the network topology. A numerical simulation on artificial networks shows that our method enjoys a high accuracy in inferring the network topology. We find that the infection rate in the propagation process significantly influences the accuracy, and that each network corresponds to an optimal infection rate. Moreover, the method generally works better in large networks. These finding are confirmed in both real social and nonsocial networks. Finally, the method is extended to directed networks, and a similarity measure specific for directed networks is designed.
Spectral likelihood expansions for Bayesian inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nagel, Joseph B.; Sudret, Bruno
2016-03-01
A spectral approach to Bayesian inference is presented. It pursues the emulation of the posterior probability density. The starting point is a series expansion of the likelihood function in terms of orthogonal polynomials. From this spectral likelihood expansion all statistical quantities of interest can be calculated semi-analytically. The posterior is formally represented as the product of a reference density and a linear combination of polynomial basis functions. Both the model evidence and the posterior moments are related to the expansion coefficients. This formulation avoids Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and allows one to make use of linear least squares instead. The pros and cons of spectral Bayesian inference are discussed and demonstrated on the basis of simple applications from classical statistics and inverse modeling.
The empirical accuracy of uncertain inference models
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Vaughan, David S.; Yadrick, Robert M.; Perrin, Bruce M.; Wise, Ben P.
1987-01-01
Uncertainty is a pervasive feature of the domains in which expert systems are designed to function. Research design to test uncertain inference methods for accuracy and robustness, in accordance with standard engineering practice is reviewed. Several studies were conducted to assess how well various methods perform on problems constructed so that correct answers are known, and to find out what underlying features of a problem cause strong or weak performance. For each method studied, situations were identified in which performance deteriorates dramatically. Over a broad range of problems, some well known methods do only about as well as a simple linear regression model, and often much worse than a simple independence probability model. The results indicate that some commercially available expert system shells should be used with caution, because the uncertain inference models that they implement can yield rather inaccurate results.
The NIFTy way of Bayesian signal inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Selig, Marco
2014-12-01
We introduce NIFTy, "Numerical Information Field Theory", a software package for the development of Bayesian signal inference algorithms that operate independently from any underlying spatial grid and its resolution. A large number of Bayesian and Maximum Entropy methods for 1D signal reconstruction, 2D imaging, as well as 3D tomography, appear formally similar, but one often finds individualized implementations that are neither flexible nor easily transferable. Signal inference in the framework of NIFTy can be done in an abstract way, such that algorithms, prototyped in 1D, can be applied to real world problems in higher-dimensional settings. NIFTy as a versatile library is applicable and already has been applied in 1D, 2D, 3D and spherical settings. A recent application is the D3PO algorithm targeting the non-trivial task of denoising, deconvolving, and decomposing photon observations in high energy astronomy.
Impacts of Terraces on Phylogenetic Inference.
Sanderson, Michael J; McMahon, Michelle M; Stamatakis, Alexandros; Zwickl, Derrick J; Steel, Mike
2015-09-01
Terraces are sets of trees with precisely the same likelihood or parsimony score, which can be induced by missing sequences in partitioned multi-locus phylogenetic data matrices. The potentially large set of trees on a terrace can be characterized by enumeration algorithms or consensus methods that exploit the pattern of partial taxon coverage in the data, independent of the sequence data themselves. Terraces can add ambiguity and complexity to phylogenetic inference, particularly in settings where inference is already challenging: data sets with many taxa and relatively few loci. In this article we present five new findings about terraces and their impacts on phylogenetic inference. First, we clarify assumptions about partitioning scheme model parameters that are necessary for the existence of terraces. Second, we explore the dependence of terrace size on partitioning scheme and indicate how to find the partitioning scheme associated with the largest terrace containing a given tree. Third, we highlight the impact of terrace size on bootstrap estimates of confidence limits in clades, and characterize the surprising result that the bootstrap proportion for a clade, as it is usually calculated, can be entirely determined by the frequency of bipartitions on a terrace, with some bipartitions receiving high support even when incorrect. Fourth, we dissect some effects of prior distributions of edge lengths on the computed posterior probabilities of clades on terraces, to understand an example in which long edges "attract" each other in Bayesian inference. Fifth, we describe how assuming relationships between edge-lengths of different loci, as an attempt to avoid terraces, can also be problematic when taxon coverage is partial, specifically when heterotachy is present. Finally, we discuss strategies for remediation of some of these problems. One promising approach finds a minimal set of taxa which, when deleted from the data matrix, reduces the size of a terrace to a
Nonparametric causal inference for bivariate time series
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McCracken, James M.; Weigel, Robert S.
2016-02-01
We introduce new quantities for exploratory causal inference between bivariate time series. The quantities, called penchants and leanings, are computationally straightforward to apply, follow directly from assumptions of probabilistic causality, do not depend on any assumed models for the time series generating process, and do not rely on any embedding procedures; these features may provide a clearer interpretation of the results than those from existing time series causality tools. The penchant and leaning are computed based on a structured method for computing probabilities.
Scalable Probabilistic Inference for Global Seismic Monitoring
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arora, N. S.; Dear, T.; Russell, S.
2011-12-01
We describe a probabilistic generative model for seismic events, their transmission through the earth, and their detection (or mis-detection) at seismic stations. We also describe an inference algorithm that constructs the most probable event bulletin explaining the observed set of detections. The model and inference are called NET-VISA (network processing vertically integrated seismic analysis) and is designed to replace the current automated network processing at the IDC, the SEL3 bulletin. Our results (attached table) demonstrate that NET-VISA significantly outperforms SEL3 by reducing the missed events from 30.3% down to 12.5%. The difference is even more dramatic for smaller magnitude events. NET-VISA has no difficulty in locating nuclear explosions as well. The attached figure demonstrates the location predicted by NET-VISA versus other bulletins for the second DPRK event. Further evaluation on dense regional networks demonstrates that NET-VISA finds many events missed in the LEB bulletin, which is produced by the human analysts. Large aftershock sequences, as produced by the 2004 December Sumatra earthquake and the 2011 March Tohoku earthquake, can pose a significant load for automated processing, often delaying the IDC bulletins by weeks or months. Indeed these sequences can overload the serial NET-VISA inference as well. We describe an enhancement to NET-VISA to make it multi-threaded, and hence take full advantage of the processing power of multi-core and -cpu machines. Our experiments show that the new inference algorithm is able to achieve 80% efficiency in parallel speedup.
Maximum caliber inference of nonequilibrium processes.
Otten, Moritz; Stock, Gerhard
2010-07-21
Thirty years ago, Jaynes suggested a general theoretical approach to nonequilibrium statistical mechanics, called maximum caliber (MaxCal) [Annu. Rev. Phys. Chem. 31, 579 (1980)]. MaxCal is a variational principle for dynamics in the same spirit that maximum entropy is a variational principle for equilibrium statistical mechanics. Motivated by the success of maximum entropy inference methods for equilibrium problems, in this work the MaxCal formulation is applied to the inference of nonequilibrium processes. That is, given some time-dependent observables of a dynamical process, one constructs a model that reproduces these input data and moreover, predicts the underlying dynamics of the system. For example, the observables could be some time-resolved measurements of the folding of a protein, which are described by a few-state model of the free energy landscape of the system. MaxCal then calculates the probabilities of an ensemble of trajectories such that on average the data are reproduced. From this probability distribution, any dynamical quantity of the system can be calculated, including population probabilities, fluxes, or waiting time distributions. After briefly reviewing the formalism, the practical numerical implementation of MaxCal in the case of an inference problem is discussed. Adopting various few-state models of increasing complexity, it is demonstrated that the MaxCal principle indeed works as a practical method of inference: The scheme is fairly robust and yields correct results as long as the input data are sufficient. As the method is unbiased and general, it can deal with any kind of time dependency such as oscillatory transients and multitime decays. PMID:20649320
Predictive Bayesian inference and dynamic treatment regimes.
Saarela, Olli; Arjas, Elja; Stephens, David A; Moodie, Erica E M
2015-11-01
While optimal dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) can be estimated without specification of a predictive model, a model-based approach, combined with dynamic programming and Monte Carlo integration, enables direct probabilistic comparisons between the outcomes under the optimal DTR and alternative (dynamic or static) treatment regimes. The Bayesian predictive approach also circumvents problems related to frequentist estimators under the nonregular estimation problem. However, the model-based approach is susceptible to misspecification, in particular of the "null-paradox" type, which is due to the model parameters not having a direct causal interpretation in the presence of latent individual-level characteristics. Because it is reasonable to insist on correct inferences under the null of no difference between the alternative treatment regimes, we discuss how to achieve this through a "null-robust" reparametrization of the problem in a longitudinal setting. Since we argue that causal inference can be entirely understood as posterior predictive inference in a hypothetical population without covariate imbalances, we also discuss how controlling for confounding through inverse probability of treatment weighting can be justified and incorporated in the Bayesian setting. PMID:26259996
Inferring Epidemic Network Topology from Surveillance Data
Wan, Xiang; Liu, Jiming; Cheung, William K.; Tong, Tiejun
2014-01-01
The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases. PMID:24979215
Quality of Computationally Inferred Gene Ontology Annotations
Škunca, Nives; Altenhoff, Adrian; Dessimoz, Christophe
2012-01-01
Gene Ontology (GO) has established itself as the undisputed standard for protein function annotation. Most annotations are inferred electronically, i.e. without individual curator supervision, but they are widely considered unreliable. At the same time, we crucially depend on those automated annotations, as most newly sequenced genomes are non-model organisms. Here, we introduce a methodology to systematically and quantitatively evaluate electronic annotations. By exploiting changes in successive releases of the UniProt Gene Ontology Annotation database, we assessed the quality of electronic annotations in terms of specificity, reliability, and coverage. Overall, we not only found that electronic annotations have significantly improved in recent years, but also that their reliability now rivals that of annotations inferred by curators when they use evidence other than experiments from primary literature. This work provides the means to identify the subset of electronic annotations that can be relied upon—an important outcome given that >98% of all annotations are inferred without direct curation. PMID:22693439
Variational Inference for Watson Mixture Model.
Taghia, Jalil; Leijon, Arne
2016-09-01
This paper addresses modelling data using the Watson distribution. The Watson distribution is one of the simplest distributions for analyzing axially symmetric data. This distribution has gained some attention in recent years due to its modeling capability. However, its Bayesian inference is fairly understudied due to difficulty in handling the normalization factor. Recent development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods can be applied for this purpose. However, these methods can be prohibitively slow for practical applications. A deterministic alternative is provided by variational methods that convert inference problems into optimization problems. In this paper, we present a variational inference for Watson mixture models. First, the variational framework is used to side-step the intractability arising from the coupling of latent states and parameters. Second, the variational free energy is further lower bounded in order to avoid intractable moment computation. The proposed approach provides a lower bound on the log marginal likelihood and retains distributional information over all parameters. Moreover, we show that it can regulate its own complexity by pruning unnecessary mixture components while avoiding over-fitting. We discuss potential applications of the modeling with Watson distributions in the problem of blind source separation, and clustering gene expression data sets. PMID:26571512
Optical tweezers calibration with Bayesian inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Türkcan, Silvan; Richly, Maximilian U.; Le Gall, Antoine; Fiszman, Nicolas; Masson, Jean-Baptiste; Westbrook, Nathalie; Perronet, Karen; Alexandrou, Antigoni
2014-09-01
We present a new method for calibrating an optical-tweezer setup that is based on Bayesian inference1. This method employs an algorithm previously used to analyze the confined trajectories of receptors within lipid rafts2,3. The main advantages of this method are that it does not require input parameters and is insensitive to systematic errors like the drift of the setup. Additionally, it exploits a much larger amount of the information stored in the recorded bead trajectory than standard calibration approaches. The additional information can be used to detect deviations from the perfect harmonic potential or detect environmental influences on the bead. The algorithm infers the diffusion coefficient and the potential felt by a trapped bead, and only requires the bead trajectory as input. We demonstrate that this method outperforms the equipartition method and the power-spectrum method in input information required (bead radius and trajectory length) and in output accuracy. Furthermore, by inferring a higher order potential our method can reveal deviations from the assumed second-order potential. More generally, this method can also be used for magnetic-tweezer calibration.
Inferring sparse networks for noisy transient processes.
Tran, Hoang M; Bukkapatnam, Satish T S
2016-01-01
Inferring causal structures of real world complex networks from measured time series signals remains an open issue. The current approaches are inadequate to discern between direct versus indirect influences (i.e., the presence or absence of a directed arc connecting two nodes) in the presence of noise, sparse interactions, as well as nonlinear and transient dynamics of real world processes. We report a sparse regression (referred to as the l1-min) approach with theoretical bounds on the constraints on the allowable perturbation to recover the network structure that guarantees sparsity and robustness to noise. We also introduce averaging and perturbation procedures to further enhance prediction scores (i.e., reduce inference errors), and the numerical stability of l1-min approach. Extensive investigations have been conducted with multiple benchmark simulated genetic regulatory network and Michaelis-Menten dynamics, as well as real world data sets from DREAM5 challenge. These investigations suggest that our approach can significantly improve, oftentimes by 5 orders of magnitude over the methods reported previously for inferring the structure of dynamic networks, such as Bayesian network, network deconvolution, silencing and modular response analysis methods based on optimizing for sparsity, transients, noise and high dimensionality issues. PMID:26916813
Inferring identify from DNA profile evidence.
Balding, D J; Donnelly, P
1995-12-01
The controversy over the interpretation of DNA profile evidence in forensic identification can be attributed in part to confusion over the mode(s) of statistical inference appropriate to this setting. Although there has been substantial discussion in the literature of, for example, the role of population genetics issues, few authors have made explicit the inferential framework which underpins their arguments. This lack of clarity has led both to unnecessary debates over ill-posed or inappropriate questions and to the neglect of some issues which can have important consequences. We argue that the mode of statistical inference which seems to underlie the arguments of some authors, based on a hypothesis testing framework, is not appropriate for forensic identification. We propose instead a logically coherent framework in which, for example, the roles both of the population genetics issues and of the nonscientific evidence in a case are incorporated. Our analysis highlights several widely held misconceptions in the DNA profiling debate. For example, the profile frequency is not directly relevant to forensic inference. Further, very small match probabilities may in some settings be consistent with acquittal. Although DNA evidence is typically very strong, our analysis of the coherent approach highlights situations which can arise in practice where alternative methods for assessing DNA evidence may be misleading. PMID:8524840
Inferred Lunar Boulder Distributions at Decimeter Scales
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Baloga, S. M.; Glaze, L. S.; Spudis, P. D.
2012-01-01
Block size distributions of impact deposits on the Moon are diagnostic of the impact process and environmental effects, such as target lithology and weathering. Block size distributions are also important factors in trafficability, habitability, and possibly the identification of indigenous resources. Lunar block sizes have been investigated for many years for many purposes [e.g., 1-3]. An unresolved issue is the extent to which lunar block size distributions can be extrapolated to scales smaller than limits of resolution of direct measurement. This would seem to be a straightforward statistical application, but it is complicated by two issues. First, the cumulative size frequency distribution of observable boulders rolls over due to resolution limitations at the small end. Second, statistical regression provides the best fit only around the centroid of the data [4]. Confidence and prediction limits splay away from the best fit at the endpoints resulting in inferences in the boulder density at the CPR scale that can differ by many orders of magnitude [4]. These issues were originally investigated by Cintala and McBride [2] using Surveyor data. The objective of this study was to determine whether the measured block size distributions from Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera - Narrow Angle Camera (LROC-NAC) images (m-scale resolution) can be used to infer the block size distribution at length scales comparable to Mini-RF Circular Polarization Ratio (CPR) scales, nominally taken as 10 cm. This would set the stage for assessing correlations of inferred block size distributions with CPR returns [6].
Is There a Free Lunch in Inference?
Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D; Verhagen, Josine; Province, Jordan M; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan
2016-07-01
The field of psychology, including cognitive science, is vexed by a crisis of confidence. Although the causes and solutions are varied, we focus here on a common logical problem in inference. The default mode of inference is significance testing, which has a free lunch property where researchers need not make detailed assumptions about the alternative to test the null hypothesis. We present the argument that there is no free lunch; that is, valid testing requires that researchers test the null against a well-specified alternative. We show how this requirement follows from the basic tenets of conventional and Bayesian probability. Moreover, we show in both the conventional and Bayesian framework that not specifying the alternative may lead to rejections of the null hypothesis with scant evidence. We review both frequentist and Bayesian approaches to specifying alternatives, and we show how such specifications improve inference. The field of cognitive science will benefit because consideration of reasonable alternatives will undoubtedly sharpen the intellectual underpinnings of research. PMID:27489199
Inferring sparse networks for noisy transient processes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tran, Hoang M.; Bukkapatnam, Satish T. S.
2016-02-01
Inferring causal structures of real world complex networks from measured time series signals remains an open issue. The current approaches are inadequate to discern between direct versus indirect influences (i.e., the presence or absence of a directed arc connecting two nodes) in the presence of noise, sparse interactions, as well as nonlinear and transient dynamics of real world processes. We report a sparse regression (referred to as the -min) approach with theoretical bounds on the constraints on the allowable perturbation to recover the network structure that guarantees sparsity and robustness to noise. We also introduce averaging and perturbation procedures to further enhance prediction scores (i.e., reduce inference errors), and the numerical stability of -min approach. Extensive investigations have been conducted with multiple benchmark simulated genetic regulatory network and Michaelis-Menten dynamics, as well as real world data sets from DREAM5 challenge. These investigations suggest that our approach can significantly improve, oftentimes by 5 orders of magnitude over the methods reported previously for inferring the structure of dynamic networks, such as Bayesian network, network deconvolution, silencing and modular response analysis methods based on optimizing for sparsity, transients, noise and high dimensionality issues.
Inferring sparse networks for noisy transient processes
Tran, Hoang M.; Bukkapatnam, Satish T.S.
2016-01-01
Inferring causal structures of real world complex networks from measured time series signals remains an open issue. The current approaches are inadequate to discern between direct versus indirect influences (i.e., the presence or absence of a directed arc connecting two nodes) in the presence of noise, sparse interactions, as well as nonlinear and transient dynamics of real world processes. We report a sparse regression (referred to as the -min) approach with theoretical bounds on the constraints on the allowable perturbation to recover the network structure that guarantees sparsity and robustness to noise. We also introduce averaging and perturbation procedures to further enhance prediction scores (i.e., reduce inference errors), and the numerical stability of -min approach. Extensive investigations have been conducted with multiple benchmark simulated genetic regulatory network and Michaelis-Menten dynamics, as well as real world data sets from DREAM5 challenge. These investigations suggest that our approach can significantly improve, oftentimes by 5 orders of magnitude over the methods reported previously for inferring the structure of dynamic networks, such as Bayesian network, network deconvolution, silencing and modular response analysis methods based on optimizing for sparsity, transients, noise and high dimensionality issues. PMID:26916813
Inferring Pedigree Graphs from Genetic Distances
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tamura, Takeyuki; Ito, Hiro
In this paper, we study a problem of inferring blood relationships which satisfy a given matrix of genetic distances between all pairs of n nodes. Blood relationships are represented by our proposed graph class, which is called a pedigree graph. A pedigree graph is a directed acyclic graph in which the maximum indegree is at most two. We show that the number of pedigree graphs which satisfy the condition of given genetic distances may be exponential, but they can be represented by one directed acyclic graph with n nodes. Moreover, an O(n3) time algorithm which solves the problem is also given. Although phylogenetic trees and phylogenetic networks are similar data structures to pedigree graphs, it seems that inferring methods for phylogenetic trees and networks cannot be applied to infer pedigree graphs since nodes of phylogenetic trees and networks represent species whereas nodes of pedigree graphs represent individuals. We also show an O(n2) time algorithm which detects a contradiction between a given pedigreee graph and distance matrix of genetic distances.
Functional neuroanatomy of intuitive physical inference.
Fischer, Jason; Mikhael, John G; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Kanwisher, Nancy
2016-08-23
To engage with the world-to understand the scene in front of us, plan actions, and predict what will happen next-we must have an intuitive grasp of the world's physical structure and dynamics. How do the objects in front of us rest on and support each other, how much force would be required to move them, and how will they behave when they fall, roll, or collide? Despite the centrality of physical inferences in daily life, little is known about the brain mechanisms recruited to interpret the physical structure of a scene and predict how physical events will unfold. Here, in a series of fMRI experiments, we identified a set of cortical regions that are selectively engaged when people watch and predict the unfolding of physical events-a "physics engine" in the brain. These brain regions are selective to physical inferences relative to nonphysical but otherwise highly similar scenes and tasks. However, these regions are not exclusively engaged in physical inferences per se or, indeed, even in scene understanding; they overlap with the domain-general "multiple demand" system, especially the parts of that system involved in action planning and tool use, pointing to a close relationship between the cognitive and neural mechanisms involved in parsing the physical content of a scene and preparing an appropriate action. PMID:27503892
Combinatorics of distance-based tree inference.
Pardi, Fabio; Gascuel, Olivier
2012-10-01
Several popular methods for phylogenetic inference (or hierarchical clustering) are based on a matrix of pairwise distances between taxa (or any kind of objects): The objective is to construct a tree with branch lengths so that the distances between the leaves in that tree are as close as possible to the input distances. If we hold the structure (topology) of the tree fixed, in some relevant cases (e.g., ordinary least squares) the optimal values for the branch lengths can be expressed using simple combinatorial formulae. Here we define a general form for these formulae and show that they all have two desirable properties: First, the common tree reconstruction approaches (least squares, minimum evolution), when used in combination with these formulae, are guaranteed to infer the correct tree when given enough data (consistency); second, the branch lengths of all the simple (nearest neighbor interchange) rearrangements of a tree can be calculated, optimally, in quadratic time in the size of the tree, thus allowing the efficient application of hill climbing heuristics. The study presented here is a continuation of that by Mihaescu and Pachter on branch length estimation [Mihaescu R, Pachter L (2008) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:13206-13211]. The focus here is on the inference of the tree itself and on providing a basis for novel algorithms to reconstruct trees from distances. PMID:23012403
Combinatorics of distance-based tree inference
Pardi, Fabio; Gascuel, Olivier
2012-01-01
Several popular methods for phylogenetic inference (or hierarchical clustering) are based on a matrix of pairwise distances between taxa (or any kind of objects): The objective is to construct a tree with branch lengths so that the distances between the leaves in that tree are as close as possible to the input distances. If we hold the structure (topology) of the tree fixed, in some relevant cases (e.g., ordinary least squares) the optimal values for the branch lengths can be expressed using simple combinatorial formulae. Here we define a general form for these formulae and show that they all have two desirable properties: First, the common tree reconstruction approaches (least squares, minimum evolution), when used in combination with these formulae, are guaranteed to infer the correct tree when given enough data (consistency); second, the branch lengths of all the simple (nearest neighbor interchange) rearrangements of a tree can be calculated, optimally, in quadratic time in the size of the tree, thus allowing the efficient application of hill climbing heuristics. The study presented here is a continuation of that by Mihaescu and Pachter on branch length estimation [Mihaescu R, Pachter L (2008) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105:13206–13211]. The focus here is on the inference of the tree itself and on providing a basis for novel algorithms to reconstruct trees from distances. PMID:23012403
Inferring Difficulty: Flexibility in the Real-time Processing of Disfluency.
Heller, Daphna; Arnold, Jennifer E; Klein, Natalie; Tanenhaus, Michael K
2015-06-01
Upon hearing a disfluent referring expression, listeners expect the speaker to refer to an object that is previously unmentioned, an object that does not have a straightforward label, or an object that requires a longer description. Two visual-world eye-tracking experiments examined whether listeners directly associate disfluency with these properties of objects, or whether disfluency attribution is more flexible and involves situation-specific inferences. Since in natural situations reference to objects that do not have a straightforward label or that require a longer description is correlated with both production difficulty and with disfluency, we used a mini-artificial lexicon to dissociate difficulty from these properties, building on the fact that recently learned names take longer to produce than existing words in one's mental lexicon. The results demonstrate that disfluency attribution involves situation-specific inferences; we propose that in new situations listeners spontaneously infer what may cause production difficulty. However, the results show that these situation-specific inferences are limited in scope: listeners assessed difficulty relative to their own experience with the artificial names, and did not adapt to the assumed knowledge of the speaker. PMID:26677642
Transitive inference in two lemur species (Eulemur macaco and Eulemur fulvus).
Tromp, D; Meunier, H; Roeder, J J
2015-03-01
When confronted with tasks involving reasoning instead of simple learning through trial and error, lemurs appeared to be less competent than simians. Our study aims to investigate lemurs' capability for transitive inference, a form of deductive reasoning in which the subject deduces logical conclusions from preliminary information. Transitive inference may have an adaptative function, especially in species living in large, complex social groups and is proposed to play a major role in rank estimation and establishment of dominance hierarchies. We proposed to test the capacities of reasoning using transitive inference in two species of lemurs, the brown lemur (Eulemur fulvus) and the black lemur (Eulemur macaco), both living in multimale-multifemale societies. For that purpose, we designed an original setup providing, for the first time in this kind of cognitive task, pictures of conspecifics' faces as stimuli. Subjects were trained to differentiate six photographs of unknown conspecifics named randomly from A to F to establish the order A > B > C > D > E > F and select consistently the highest-ranking photograph in five adjacent pairs AB, BC, CD, DE, and EF. Then lemurs were presented with the same adjacent pairs and three new and non-adjacent pairs BD, BE, CE. The results showed that all subjects correctly selected the highest-ranking photograph in every non-adjacent pair, reflecting lemurs' capacity for transitive inference. Our results are discussed in the context of the still debated current theories about the mechanisms underlying this specific capacity. PMID:25328141
Neugebauer, Romain; Fireman, Bruce; Roy, Jason A.; Raebel, Marsha A.; Nichols, Gregory A.; O’Connor, Patrick J.
2013-01-01
Objective Clinical trials are unlikely to ever be launched for many Comparative Effectiveness Research (CER) questions. Inferences from hypothetical randomized trials may however be emulated with marginal structural modeling (MSM) using observational data but success in adjusting for time-dependent confounding and selection bias typically relies on parametric modeling assumptions. If these assumptions are violated, inferences from MSM may be inaccurate. In this article, we motivate the application of a data-adaptive estimation approach called Super Learning to avoid reliance on arbitrary parametric assumptions in CER. Study Design and Setting Using the electronic health records data from adults with new onset type 2 diabetes, we implemented MSM with inverse probability weighting estimation to evaluate the effect of three oral anti-diabetic therapies on the worsening of glomerular filtration rate. Results Inferences from IPW estimation were noticeably sensitive to the parametric assumptions about the associations between both the exposure and censoring processes and the main suspected source of confounding, i.e., time-dependent measurements of hemoglobin A1c. Super Learning was successfully implemented to harness flexible confounding and selection bias adjustment from existing machine learning algorithms. Conclusion Erroneous IPW inference about clinical effectiveness due to arbitrary and incorrect modeling decisions may be avoided with Super Learning. PMID:23849160
Data fusion and classification using a hybrid intrinsic cellular inference network
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Woodley, Robert; Walenz, Brett; Seiffertt, John; Robinette, Paul; Wunsch, Donald
2010-04-01
Hybrid Intrinsic Cellular Inference Network (HICIN) is designed for battlespace decision support applications. We developed an automatic method of generating hypotheses for an entity-attribute classifier. The capability and effectiveness of a domain specific ontology was used to generate automatic categories for data classification. Heterogeneous data is clustered using an Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) inference engine on a sample (unclassified) data set. The data set is the Lahman baseball database. The actual data is immaterial to the architecture, however, parallels in the data can be easily drawn (i.e., "Team" maps to organization, "Runs scored/allowed" to Measure of organization performance (positive/negative), "Payroll" to organization resources, etc.). Results show that HICIN classifiers create known inferences from the heterogonous data. These inferences are not explicitly stated in the ontological description of the domain and are strictly data driven. HICIN uses data uncertainty handling to reduce errors in the classification. The uncertainty handling is based on subjective logic. The belief mass allows evidence from multiple sources to be mathematically combined to increase or discount an assertion. In military operations the ability to reduce uncertainty will be vital in the data fusion operation.
Reiter, Andrea M F; Koch, Stefan P; Schröger, Erich; Hinrichs, Hermann; Heinze, Hans-Jochen; Deserno, Lorenz; Schlagenhauf, Florian
2016-08-01
Behavioral control is influenced not only by learning from the choices made and the rewards obtained but also by "what might have happened," that is, inference about unchosen options and their fictive outcomes. Substantial progress has been made in understanding the neural signatures of direct learning from choices that are actually made and their associated rewards via reward prediction errors (RPEs). However, electrophysiological correlates of abstract inference in decision-making are less clear. One seminal theory suggests that the so-called feedback-related negativity (FRN), an ERP peaking 200-300 msec after a feedback stimulus at frontocentral sites of the scalp, codes RPEs. Hitherto, the FRN has been predominantly related to a so-called "model-free" RPE: The difference between the observed outcome and what had been expected. Here, by means of computational modeling of choice behavior, we show that individuals employ abstract, "double-update" inference on the task structure by concurrently tracking values of chosen stimuli (associated with observed outcomes) and unchosen stimuli (linked to fictive outcomes). In a parametric analysis, model-free RPEs as well as their modification because of abstract inference were regressed against single-trial FRN amplitudes. We demonstrate that components related to abstract inference uniquely explain variance in the FRN beyond model-free RPEs. These findings advance our understanding of the FRN and its role in behavioral adaptation. This might further the investigation of disturbed abstract inference, as proposed, for example, for psychiatric disorders, and its underlying neural correlates. PMID:27031567
Statistical Inference at Work: Statistical Process Control as an Example
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Bakker, Arthur; Kent, Phillip; Derry, Jan; Noss, Richard; Hoyles, Celia
2008-01-01
To characterise statistical inference in the workplace this paper compares a prototypical type of statistical inference at work, statistical process control (SPC), with a type of statistical inference that is better known in educational settings, hypothesis testing. Although there are some similarities between the reasoning structure involved in…
Development of L2 Word-Meaning Inference while Reading
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Hamada, Megumi
2009-01-01
Ability to infer the meaning of unknown words encountered while reading plays an important role in learners' L2 word-knowledge development. Despite numerous findings reported on word-meaning inference, how learners develop this ability is still unclear. In order to provide a developmental inquiry into L2 word-meaning inference while reading, this…
Popinga, Alex; Vaughan, Tim; Stadler, Tanja; Drummond, Alexei J
2015-02-01
Estimation of epidemiological and population parameters from molecular sequence data has become central to the understanding of infectious disease dynamics. Various models have been proposed to infer details of the dynamics that describe epidemic progression. These include inference approaches derived from Kingman's coalescent theory. Here, we use recently described coalescent theory for epidemic dynamics to develop stochastic and deterministic coalescent susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) tree priors. We implement these in a Bayesian phylogenetic inference framework to permit joint estimation of SIR epidemic parameters and the sample genealogy. We assess the performance of the two coalescent models and also juxtapose results obtained with a recently published birth-death-sampling model for epidemic inference. Comparisons are made by analyzing sets of genealogies simulated under precisely known epidemiological parameters. Additionally, we analyze influenza A (H1N1) sequence data sampled in the Canterbury region of New Zealand and HIV-1 sequence data obtained from known United Kingdom infection clusters. We show that both coalescent SIR models are effective at estimating epidemiological parameters from data with large fundamental reproductive number [Formula: see text] and large population size [Formula: see text]. Furthermore, we find that the stochastic variant generally outperforms its deterministic counterpart in terms of error, bias, and highest posterior density coverage, particularly for smaller [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. However, each of these inference models is shown to have undesirable properties in certain circumstances, especially for epidemic outbreaks with [Formula: see text] close to one or with small effective susceptible populations. PMID:25527289
ADAPTATION AND ADAPTABILITY, THE BELLEFAIRE FOLLOWUP STUDY.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
ALLERHAND, MELVIN E.; AND OTHERS
A RESEARCH TEAM STUDIED INFLUENCES, ADAPTATION, AND ADAPTABILITY IN 50 POORLY ADAPTING BOYS AT BELLEFAIRE, A REGIONAL CHILD CARE CENTER FOR EMOTIONALLY DISTURBED CHILDREN. THE TEAM ATTEMPTED TO GAUGE THE SUCCESS OF THE RESIDENTIAL TREATMENT CENTER IN TERMS OF THE PSYCHOLOGICAL PATTERNS AND ROLE PERFORMANCES OF THE BOYS DURING INDIVIDUAL CASEWORK…
Craniofacial biomechanics and functional and dietary inferences in hominin paleontology.
Grine, Frederick E; Judex, Stefan; Daegling, David J; Ozcivici, Engin; Ungar, Peter S; Teaford, Mark F; Sponheimer, Matt; Scott, Jessica; Scott, Robert S; Walker, Alan
2010-04-01
Finite element analysis (FEA) is a potentially powerful tool by which the mechanical behaviors of different skeletal and dental designs can be investigated, and, as such, has become increasingly popular for biomechanical modeling and inferring the behavior of extinct organisms. However, the use of FEA to extrapolate from characterization of the mechanical environment to questions of trophic or ecological adaptation in a fossil taxon is both challenging and perilous. Here, we consider the problems and prospects of FEA applications in paleoanthropology, and provide a critical examination of one such study of the trophic adaptations of Australopithecus africanus. This particular FEA is evaluated with regard to 1) the nature of the A. africanus cranial composite, 2) model validation, 3) decisions made with respect to model parameters, 4) adequacy of data presentation, and 5) interpretation of the results. Each suggests that the results reflect methodological decisions as much as any underlying biological significance. Notwithstanding these issues, this model yields predictions that follow from the posited emphasis on premolar use by A. africanus. These predictions are tested with data from the paleontological record, including a phylogenetically-informed consideration of relative premolar size, and postcanine microwear fabrics and antemortem enamel chipping. In each instance, the data fail to conform to predictions from the model. This model thus serves to emphasize the need for caution in the application of FEA in paleoanthropological enquiry. Theoretical models can be instrumental in the construction of testable hypotheses; but ultimately, the studies that serve to test these hypotheses - rather than data from the models - should remain the source of information pertaining to hominin paleobiology and evolution. PMID:20227747
Inferring influenza dynamics and control in households.
Lau, Max S Y; Cowling, Benjamin J; Cook, Alex R; Riley, Steven
2015-07-21
Household-based interventions are the mainstay of public health policy against epidemic respiratory pathogens when vaccination is not available. Although the efficacy of these interventions has traditionally been measured by their ability to reduce the proportion of household contacts who exhibit symptoms [household secondary attack rate (hSAR)], this metric is difficult to interpret and makes only partial use of data collected by modern field studies. Here, we use Bayesian transmission model inference to analyze jointly both symptom reporting and viral shedding data from a three-armed study of influenza interventions. The reduction in hazard of infection in the increased hand hygiene intervention arm was 37.0% [8.3%, 57.8%], whereas the equivalent reduction in the other intervention arm was 27.2% [-0.46%, 52.3%] (increased hand hygiene and face masks). By imputing the presence and timing of unobserved infection, we estimated that only 61.7% [43.1%, 76.9%] of infections met the case criteria and were thus detected by the study design. An assessment of interventions using inferred infections produced more intuitively consistent attack rates when households were stratified by the speed of intervention, compared with the crude hSAR. Compared with adults, children were 2.29 [1.66, 3.23] times as infectious and 3.36 [2.31, 4.82] times as susceptible. The mean generation time was 3.39 d [3.06, 3.70]. Laboratory confirmation of infections by RT-PCR was only able to detect 79.6% [76.5%, 83.0%] of symptomatic infections, even at the peak of shedding. Our results highlight the potential use of robust inference with well-designed mechanistic transmission models to improve the design of intervention studies. PMID:26150502
Bayesian Estimation and Inference Using Stochastic Electronics
Thakur, Chetan Singh; Afshar, Saeed; Wang, Runchun M.; Hamilton, Tara J.; Tapson, Jonathan; van Schaik, André
2016-01-01
In this paper, we present the implementation of two types of Bayesian inference problems to demonstrate the potential of building probabilistic algorithms in hardware using single set of building blocks with the ability to perform these computations in real time. The first implementation, referred to as the BEAST (Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Tracker), demonstrates a simple problem where an observer uses an underlying Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to track a target in one dimension. In this implementation, sensors make noisy observations of the target position at discrete time steps. The tracker learns the transition model for target movement, and the observation model for the noisy sensors, and uses these to estimate the target position by solving the Bayesian recursive equation online. We show the tracking performance of the system and demonstrate how it can learn the observation model, the transition model, and the external distractor (noise) probability interfering with the observations. In the second implementation, referred to as the Bayesian INference in DAG (BIND), we show how inference can be performed in a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) using stochastic circuits. We show how these building blocks can be easily implemented using simple digital logic gates. An advantage of the stochastic electronic implementation is that it is robust to certain types of noise, which may become an issue in integrated circuit (IC) technology with feature sizes in the order of tens of nanometers due to their low noise margin, the effect of high-energy cosmic rays and the low supply voltage. In our framework, the flipping of random individual bits would not affect the system performance because information is encoded in a bit stream. PMID:27047326
Nonparametric inference of network structure and dynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Peixoto, Tiago P.
The network structure of complex systems determine their function and serve as evidence for the evolutionary mechanisms that lie behind them. Despite considerable effort in recent years, it remains an open challenge to formulate general descriptions of the large-scale structure of network systems, and how to reliably extract such information from data. Although many approaches have been proposed, few methods attempt to gauge the statistical significance of the uncovered structures, and hence the majority cannot reliably separate actual structure from stochastic fluctuations. Due to the sheer size and high-dimensionality of many networks, this represents a major limitation that prevents meaningful interpretations of the results obtained with such nonstatistical methods. In this talk, I will show how these issues can be tackled in a principled and efficient fashion by formulating appropriate generative models of network structure that can have their parameters inferred from data. By employing a Bayesian description of such models, the inference can be performed in a nonparametric fashion, that does not require any a priori knowledge or ad hoc assumptions about the data. I will show how this approach can be used to perform model comparison, and how hierarchical models yield the most appropriate trade-off between model complexity and quality of fit based on the statistical evidence present in the data. I will also show how this general approach can be elegantly extended to networks with edge attributes, that are embedded in latent spaces, and that change in time. The latter is obtained via a fully dynamic generative network model, based on arbitrary-order Markov chains, that can also be inferred in a nonparametric fashion. Throughout the talk I will illustrate the application of the methods with many empirical networks such as the internet at the autonomous systems level, the global airport network, the network of actors and films, social networks, citations among
Bayesian Estimation and Inference Using Stochastic Electronics.
Thakur, Chetan Singh; Afshar, Saeed; Wang, Runchun M; Hamilton, Tara J; Tapson, Jonathan; van Schaik, André
2016-01-01
In this paper, we present the implementation of two types of Bayesian inference problems to demonstrate the potential of building probabilistic algorithms in hardware using single set of building blocks with the ability to perform these computations in real time. The first implementation, referred to as the BEAST (Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Tracker), demonstrates a simple problem where an observer uses an underlying Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to track a target in one dimension. In this implementation, sensors make noisy observations of the target position at discrete time steps. The tracker learns the transition model for target movement, and the observation model for the noisy sensors, and uses these to estimate the target position by solving the Bayesian recursive equation online. We show the tracking performance of the system and demonstrate how it can learn the observation model, the transition model, and the external distractor (noise) probability interfering with the observations. In the second implementation, referred to as the Bayesian INference in DAG (BIND), we show how inference can be performed in a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) using stochastic circuits. We show how these building blocks can be easily implemented using simple digital logic gates. An advantage of the stochastic electronic implementation is that it is robust to certain types of noise, which may become an issue in integrated circuit (IC) technology with feature sizes in the order of tens of nanometers due to their low noise margin, the effect of high-energy cosmic rays and the low supply voltage. In our framework, the flipping of random individual bits would not affect the system performance because information is encoded in a bit stream. PMID:27047326
Gaussian quadrature inference for continuous-variable quantum key distribution
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gyongyosi, L.; Imre, S.
2016-05-01
We propose the Gaussian quadrature inference (GQI) method for multicarrier continuous-variable quantum key distribution (CVQKD). A multicarrier CVQKD protocol utilizes Gaussian subcarrier quantum continuous variables (CV) for information transmission. The GQI framework provides a minimal error estimate of the quadratures of the CV quantum states from the discrete, measured noisy subcarrier variables. GQI utilizes the fundamentals of regularization theory and statistical information processing. We characterize GQI for multicarrier CVQKD, and define a method for the statistical modeling and processing of noisy Gaussian subcarrier quadratures. We demonstrate the results through the adaptive multicarrier quadrature division (AMQD) scheme. We introduce the terms statistical secret key rate and statistical private classical information, which quantities are derived purely by the statistical functions of GQI. We prove the secret key rate formulas for a multiple access multicarrier CVQKD via the AMQD-MQA (multiuser quadrature allocation) scheme. The framework can be established in an arbitrary CVQKD protocol and measurement setting, and are implementable by standard low-complexity statistical functions, which is particularly convenient for an experimental CVQKD scenario.
Inferring Gene Family Histories in Yeast Identifies Lineage Specific Expansions
Ames, Ryan M.; Money, Daniel; Lovell, Simon C.
2014-01-01
The complement of genes found in the genome is a balance between gene gain and gene loss. Knowledge of the specific genes that are gained and lost over evolutionary time allows an understanding of the evolution of biological functions. Here we use new evolutionary models to infer gene family histories across complete yeast genomes; these models allow us to estimate the relative genome-wide rates of gene birth, death, innovation and extinction (loss of an entire family) for the first time. We show that the rates of gene family evolution vary both between gene families and between species. We are also able to identify those families that have experienced rapid lineage specific expansion/contraction and show that these families are enriched for specific functions. Moreover, we find that families with specific functions are repeatedly expanded in multiple species, suggesting the presence of common adaptations and that these family expansions/contractions are not random. Additionally, we identify potential specialisations, unique to specific species, in the functions of lineage specific expanded families. These results suggest that an important mechanism in the evolution of genome content is the presence of lineage-specific gene family changes. PMID:24921666
Infants use relative numerical group size to infer social dominance.
Pun, Anthea; Birch, Susan A J; Baron, Andrew Scott
2016-03-01
Detecting dominance relationships, within and across species, provides a clear fitness advantage because this ability helps individuals assess their potential risk of injury before engaging in a competition. Previous research has demonstrated that 10- to 13-mo-old infants can represent the dominance relationship between two agents in terms of their physical size (larger agent = more dominant), whereas younger infants fail to do so. It is unclear whether infants younger than 10 mo fail to represent dominance relationships in general, or whether they lack sensitivity to physical size as a cue to dominance. Two studies explored whether infants, like many species across the animal kingdom, use numerical group size to assess dominance relationships and whether this capacity emerges before their sensitivity to physical size. A third study ruled out an alternative explanation for our findings. Across these studies, we report that infants 6-12 mo of age use numerical group size to infer dominance relationships. Specifically, preverbal infants expect an agent from a numerically larger group to win in a right-of-way competition against an agent from a numerically smaller group. In addition, this is, to our knowledge, the first study to demonstrate that infants 6-9 mo of age are capable of understanding social dominance relations. These results demonstrate that infants' understanding of social dominance relations may be based on evolutionarily relevant cues and reveal infants' early sensitivity to an important adaptive function of social groups. PMID:26884199
Infants use relative numerical group size to infer social dominance
Pun, Anthea; Birch, Susan A. J.; Baron, Andrew Scott
2016-01-01
Detecting dominance relationships, within and across species, provides a clear fitness advantage because this ability helps individuals assess their potential risk of injury before engaging in a competition. Previous research has demonstrated that 10- to 13-mo-old infants can represent the dominance relationship between two agents in terms of their physical size (larger agent = more dominant), whereas younger infants fail to do so. It is unclear whether infants younger than 10 mo fail to represent dominance relationships in general, or whether they lack sensitivity to physical size as a cue to dominance. Two studies explored whether infants, like many species across the animal kingdom, use numerical group size to assess dominance relationships and whether this capacity emerges before their sensitivity to physical size. A third study ruled out an alternative explanation for our findings. Across these studies, we report that infants 6–12 mo of age use numerical group size to infer dominance relationships. Specifically, preverbal infants expect an agent from a numerically larger group to win in a right-of-way competition against an agent from a numerically smaller group. In addition, this is, to our knowledge, the first study to demonstrate that infants 6–9 mo of age are capable of understanding social dominance relations. These results demonstrate that infants’ understanding of social dominance relations may be based on evolutionarily relevant cues and reveal infants’ early sensitivity to an important adaptive function of social groups. PMID:26884199
Annual Rainfall Forecasting by Using Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fallah-Ghalhary, G.-A.; Habibi Nokhandan, M.; Mousavi Baygi, M.
2009-04-01
Long-term rainfall prediction is very important to countries thriving on agro-based economy. In general, climate and rainfall are highly non-linear phenomena in nature giving rise to what is known as "butterfly effect". The parameters that are required to predict the rainfall are enormous even for a short period. Soft computing is an innovative approach to construct computationally intelligent systems that are supposed to possess humanlike expertise within a specific domain, adapt themselves and learn to do better in changing environments, and explain how they make decisions. Unlike conventional artificial intelligence techniques the guiding principle of soft computing is to exploit tolerance for imprecision, uncertainty, robustness, partial truth to achieve tractability, and better rapport with reality. In this paper, 33 years of rainfall data analyzed in khorasan state, the northeastern part of Iran situated at latitude-longitude pairs (31°-38°N, 74°- 80°E). this research attempted to train Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) based prediction models with 33 years of rainfall data. For performance evaluation, the model predicted outputs were compared with the actual rainfall data. Simulation results reveal that soft computing techniques are promising and efficient. The test results using by FIS model showed that the RMSE was obtained 52 millimeter.
Bayesian Inference in Satellite Gravity Inversion
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kis, K. I.; Taylor, Patrick T.; Wittmann, G.; Kim, Hyung Rae; Torony, B.; Mayer-Guerr, T.
2005-01-01
To solve a geophysical inverse problem means applying measurements to determine the parameters of the selected model. The inverse problem is formulated as the Bayesian inference. The Gaussian probability density functions are applied in the Bayes's equation. The CHAMP satellite gravity data are determined at the altitude of 400 kilometer altitude over the South part of the Pannonian basin. The model of interpretation is the right vertical cylinder. The parameters of the model are obtained from the minimum problem solved by the Simplex method.
Predictive Inference Using Latent Variables with Covariates*
Schofield, Lynne Steuerle; Junker, Brian; Taylor, Lowell J.; Black, Dan A.
2014-01-01
Plausible Values (PVs) are a standard multiple imputation tool for analysis of large education survey data that measures latent proficiency variables. When latent proficiency is the dependent variable, we reconsider the standard institutionally-generated PV methodology and find it applies with greater generality than shown previously. When latent proficiency is an independent variable, we show that the standard institutional PV methodology produces biased inference because the institutional conditioning model places restrictions on the form of the secondary analysts’ model. We offer an alternative approach that avoids these biases based on the mixed effects structural equations (MESE) model of Schofield (2008). PMID:25231627
Data free inference with processed data products
Chowdhary, K.; Najm, H. N.
2014-07-12
Here, we consider the context of probabilistic inference of model parameters given error bars or confidence intervals on model output values, when the data is unavailable. We introduce a class of algorithms in a Bayesian framework, relying on maximum entropy arguments and approximate Bayesian computation methods, to generate consistent data with the given summary statistics. Once we obtain consistent data sets, we pool the respective posteriors, to arrive at a single, averaged density on the parameters. This approach allows us to perform accurate forward uncertainty propagation consistent with the reported statistics.
Solar structure: Models and inferences from helioseismology
Guzik, J.A.
1998-12-31
In this review the author summarizes results published during approximately the least three years concerning the state of one-dimensional solar interior modeling. She discusses the effects of refinements to the input physics, motivated by improving the agreement between calculated and observed solar oscillation frequencies, or between calculated and inferred solar structure. She has omitted two- and three-dimensional aspects of the solar structure, such as the rotation profile, detailed modeling of turbulent convection, and magnetic fields, although further progress in refining solar interior models may require including such two- and three-dimensional dynamical effects.
Adaptive Image Denoising by Mixture Adaptation.
Luo, Enming; Chan, Stanley H; Nguyen, Truong Q
2016-10-01
We propose an adaptive learning procedure to learn patch-based image priors for image denoising. The new algorithm, called the expectation-maximization (EM) adaptation, takes a generic prior learned from a generic external database and adapts it to the noisy image to generate a specific prior. Different from existing methods that combine internal and external statistics in ad hoc ways, the proposed algorithm is rigorously derived from a Bayesian hyper-prior perspective. There are two contributions of this paper. First, we provide full derivation of the EM adaptation algorithm and demonstrate methods to improve the computational complexity. Second, in the absence of the latent clean image, we show how EM adaptation can be modified based on pre-filtering. The experimental results show that the proposed adaptation algorithm yields consistently better denoising results than the one without adaptation and is superior to several state-of-the-art algorithms. PMID:27416593
Transport map-accelerated Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian parameter inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Marzouk, Y.; Parno, M.
2014-12-01
We introduce a new framework for efficient posterior sampling in Bayesian inference, using a combination of optimal transport maps and the Metropolis-Hastings rule. The core idea is to use transport maps to transform typical Metropolis proposal mechanisms (e.g., random walks, Langevin methods, Hessian-preconditioned Langevin methods) into non-Gaussian proposal distributions that can more effectively explore the target density. Our approach adaptively constructs a lower triangular transport map—i.e., a Knothe-Rosenblatt re-arrangement—using information from previous MCMC states, via the solution of an optimization problem. Crucially, this optimization problem is convex regardless of the form of the target distribution. It is solved efficiently using Newton or quasi-Newton methods, but the formulation is such that these methods require no derivative information from the target probability distribution; the target distribution is instead represented via samples. Sequential updates using the alternating direction method of multipliers enable efficient and parallelizable adaptation of the map even for large numbers of samples. We show that this approach uses inexact or truncated maps to produce an adaptive MCMC algorithm that is ergodic for the exact target distribution. Numerical demonstrations on a range of parameter inference problems involving both ordinary and partial differential equations show multiple order-of-magnitude speedups over standard MCMC techniques, measured by the number of effectively independent samples produced per model evaluation and per unit of wallclock time.
Using alien coins to test whether simple inference is Bayesian.
Cassey, Peter; Hawkins, Guy E; Donkin, Chris; Brown, Scott D
2016-03-01
Reasoning and inference are well-studied aspects of basic cognition that have been explained as statistically optimal Bayesian inference. Using a simplified experimental design, we conducted quantitative comparisons between Bayesian inference and human inference at the level of individuals. In 3 experiments, with more than 13,000 participants, we asked people for prior and posterior inferences about the probability that 1 of 2 coins would generate certain outcomes. Most participants' inferences were inconsistent with Bayes' rule. Only in the simplest version of the task did the majority of participants adhere to Bayes' rule, but even in that case, there was a significant proportion that failed to do so. The current results highlight the importance of close quantitative comparisons between Bayesian inference and human data at the individual-subject level when evaluating models of cognition. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26461034
Fitness Inference from Short-Read Data: Within-Host Evolution of a Reassortant H5N1 Influenza Virus
Illingworth, Christopher J.R.
2015-01-01
We present a method to infer the role of selection acting during the within-host evolution of the influenza virus from short-read genome sequence data. Linkage disequilibrium between loci is accounted for by treating short-read sequences as noisy multilocus emissions from an underlying model of haplotype evolution. A hierarchical model-selection procedure is used to infer the underlying fitness landscape of the virus insofar as that landscape is explored by the viral population. In a first application of our method, we analyze data from an evolutionary experiment describing the growth of a reassortant H5N1 virus in ferrets. Across two sets of replica experiments we infer multiple alleles to be under selection, including variants associated with receptor binding specificity, glycosylation, and with the increased transmissibility of the virus. We identify epistasis as an important component of the within-host fitness landscape, and show that adaptation can proceed through multiple genetic pathways. PMID:26243288
Causal Inference for Spatial Constancy across Saccades.
Atsma, Jeroen; Maij, Femke; Koppen, Mathieu; Irwin, David E; Medendorp, W Pieter
2016-03-01
Our ability to interact with the environment hinges on creating a stable visual world despite the continuous changes in retinal input. To achieve visual stability, the brain must distinguish the retinal image shifts caused by eye movements and shifts due to movements of the visual scene. This process appears not to be flawless: during saccades, we often fail to detect whether visual objects remain stable or move, which is called saccadic suppression of displacement (SSD). How does the brain evaluate the memorized information of the presaccadic scene and the actual visual feedback of the postsaccadic visual scene in the computations for visual stability? Using a SSD task, we test how participants localize the presaccadic position of the fixation target, the saccade target or a peripheral non-foveated target that was displaced parallel or orthogonal during a horizontal saccade, and subsequently viewed for three different durations. Results showed different localization errors of the three targets, depending on the viewing time of the postsaccadic stimulus and its spatial separation from the presaccadic location. We modeled the data through a Bayesian causal inference mechanism, in which at the trial level an optimal mixing of two possible strategies, integration vs. separation of the presaccadic memory and the postsaccadic sensory signals, is applied. Fits of this model generally outperformed other plausible decision strategies for producing SSD. Our findings suggest that humans exploit a Bayesian inference process with two causal structures to mediate visual stability. PMID:26967730
Phylogenetic Inference From Conserved sites Alignments
grundy, W.N.; Naylor, G.J.P.
1999-08-15
Molecular sequences provide a rich source of data for inferring the phylogenetic relationships among species. However, recent work indicates that even an accurate multiple alignment of a large sequence set may yield an incorrect phylogeny and that the quality of the phylogenetic tree improves when the input consists only of the highly conserved, motif regions of the alignment. This work introduces two methods of producing multiple alignments that include only the conserved regions of the initial alignment. The first method retains conserved motifs, whereas the second retains individual conserved sites in the initial alignment. Using parsimony analysis on a mitochondrial data set containing 19 species among which the phylogenetic relationships are widely accepted, both conserved alignment methods produce better phylogenetic trees than the complete alignment. Unlike any of the 19 inference methods used before to analyze this data, both methods produce trees that are completely consistent with the known phylogeny. The motif-based method employs far fewer alignment sites for comparable error rates. For a larger data set containing mitochondrial sequences from 39 species, the site-based method produces a phylogenetic tree that is largely consistent with known phylogenetic relationships and suggests several novel placements.
Inferring differentiation pathways from gene expression
Costa, Ivan G.; Roepcke, Stefan; Hafemeister, Christoph; Schliep, Alexander
2008-01-01
Motivation: The regulation of proliferation and differentiation of embryonic and adult stem cells into mature cells is central to developmental biology. Gene expression measured in distinguishable developmental stages helps to elucidate underlying molecular processes. In previous work we showed that functional gene modules, which act distinctly in the course of development, can be represented by a mixture of trees. In general, the similarities in the gene expression programs of cell populations reflect the similarities in the differentiation path. Results: We propose a novel model for gene expression profiles and an unsupervised learning method to estimate developmental similarity and infer differentiation pathways. We assess the performance of our model on simulated data and compare it with favorable results to related methods. We also infer differentiation pathways and predict functional modules in gene expression data of lymphoid development. Conclusions: We demonstrate for the first time how, in principal, the incorporation of structural knowledge about the dependence structure helps to reveal differentiation pathways and potentially relevant functional gene modules from microarray datasets. Our method applies in any area of developmental biology where it is possible to obtain cells of distinguishable differentiation stages. Availability: The implementation of our method (GPL license), data and additional results are available at http://algorithmics.molgen.mpg.de/Supplements/InfDif/ Contact: filho@molgen.mpg.de, schliep@molgen.mpg.de Supplementary information: Supplementary data is available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:18586709
Natural frequencies facilitate diagnostic inferences of managers.
Hoffrage, Ulrich; Hafenbrädl, Sebastian; Bouquet, Cyril
2015-01-01
In Bayesian inference tasks, information about base rates as well as hit rate and false-alarm rate needs to be integrated according to Bayes' rule after the result of a diagnostic test became known. Numerous studies have found that presenting information in a Bayesian inference task in terms of natural frequencies leads to better performance compared to variants with information presented in terms of probabilities or percentages. Natural frequencies are the tallies in a natural sample in which hit rate and false-alarm rate are not normalized with respect to base rates. The present research replicates the beneficial effect of natural frequencies with four tasks from the domain of management, and with management students as well as experienced executives as participants. The percentage of Bayesian responses was almost twice as high when information was presented in natural frequencies compared to a presentation in terms of percentages. In contrast to most tasks previously studied, the majority of numerical responses were lower than the Bayesian solutions. Having heard of Bayes' rule prior to the study did not affect Bayesian performance. An implication of our work is that textbooks explaining Bayes' rule should teach how to represent information in terms of natural frequencies instead of how to plug probabilities or percentages into a formula. PMID:26157397
Inferring epigenetic dynamics from kin correlations.
Hormoz, Sahand; Desprat, Nicolas; Shraiman, Boris I
2015-05-01
Populations of isogenic embryonic stem cells or clonal bacteria often exhibit extensive phenotypic heterogeneity that arises from intrinsic stochastic dynamics of cells. The phenotypic state of a cell can be transmitted epigenetically in cell division, leading to correlations in the states of cells related by descent. The extent of these correlations is determined by the rates of transitions between the phenotypic states. Therefore, a snapshot of the phenotypes of a collection of cells with known genealogical structure contains information on phenotypic dynamics. Here, we use a model of phenotypic dynamics on a genealogical tree to define an inference method that allows extraction of an approximate probabilistic description of the dynamics from observed phenotype correlations as a function of the degree of kinship. The approach is tested and validated on the example of Pyoverdine dynamics in Pseudomonas aeruginosa colonies. Interestingly, we find that correlations among pairs and triples of distant relatives have a simple but nontrivial structure indicating that observed phenotypic dynamics on the genealogical tree is approximately conformal--a symmetry characteristic of critical behavior in physical systems. The proposed inference method is sufficiently general to be applied in any system where lineage information is available. PMID:25902540
Inferring social ties from geographic coincidences
Crandall, David J.; Backstrom, Lars; Cosley, Dan; Suri, Siddharth; Huttenlocher, Daniel; Kleinberg, Jon
2010-01-01
We investigate the extent to which social ties between people can be inferred from co-occurrence in time and space: Given that two people have been in approximately the same geographic locale at approximately the same time, on multiple occasions, how likely are they to know each other? Furthermore, how does this likelihood depend on the spatial and temporal proximity of the co-occurrences? Such issues arise in data originating in both online and offline domains as well as settings that capture interfaces between online and offline behavior. Here we develop a framework for quantifying the answers to such questions, and we apply this framework to publicly available data from a social media site, finding that even a very small number of co-occurrences can result in a high empirical likelihood of a social tie. We then present probabilistic models showing how such large probabilities can arise from a natural model of proximity and co-occurrence in the presence of social ties. In addition to providing a method for establishing some of the first quantifiable estimates of these measures, our findings have potential privacy implications, particularly for the ways in which social structures can be inferred from public online records that capture individuals’ physical locations over time. PMID:21148099
Inferring Seizure Frequency From Brief EEG Recordings
Westover, M. Brandon; Bianchi, Matt T.; Shafi, Mouhsin; Hoch, Daniel B.; Cole, Andrew J.; Chiappa, Keith; Cash, Sydney S.
2012-01-01
Routine EEGs remain a cornerstone test in caring for people with epilepsy. Although rare, a self-limited seizure (clinical or electrographic only) may be observed during such brief EEGs. The implications of observing a seizure in this situation, especially with respect to inferring the underlying seizure frequency, are unclear. The issue is complicated by the inaccuracy of patient-reported estimations of seizure frequency. The treating clinician is often left to wonder whether the single seizure indicates very frequent seizures, or if it is of lesser significance. We applied standard concepts of probabilistic inference to a simple model of seizure incidence to provide some guidance for clinicians facing this situation. Our analysis establishes upper and lower bounds on the seizure rate implied by observing a single seizure during routine EEG. Not surprisingly, with additional information regarding the expected seizure rate, these bounds can be further constrained. This framework should aid the clinician in applying a more principled approach toward decision making in the setting of a single seizure on a routine EEG. PMID:23545768
Active inference, eye movements and oculomotor delays.
Perrinet, Laurent U; Adams, Rick A; Friston, Karl J
2014-12-01
This paper considers the problem of sensorimotor delays in the optimal control of (smooth) eye movements under uncertainty. Specifically, we consider delays in the visuo-oculomotor loop and their implications for active inference. Active inference uses a generalisation of Kalman filtering to provide Bayes optimal estimates of hidden states and action in generalised coordinates of motion. Representing hidden states in generalised coordinates provides a simple way of compensating for both sensory and oculomotor delays. The efficacy of this scheme is illustrated using neuronal simulations of pursuit initiation responses, with and without compensation. We then consider an extension of the generative model to simulate smooth pursuit eye movements-in which the visuo-oculomotor system believes both the target and its centre of gaze are attracted to a (hidden) point moving in the visual field. Finally, the generative model is equipped with a hierarchical structure, so that it can recognise and remember unseen (occluded) trajectories and emit anticipatory responses. These simulations speak to a straightforward and neurobiologically plausible solution to the generic problem of integrating information from different sources with different temporal delays and the particular difficulties encountered when a system-like the oculomotor system-tries to control its environment with delayed signals. PMID:25128318
Toddlers infer unobserved causes for spontaneous events
Muentener, Paul; Schulz, Laura
2014-01-01
Previous research suggests that children infer the presence of unobserved causes when objects appear to move spontaneously. Are such inferences limited to motion events or do children assume that unexplained physical events have causes more generally? Here we introduce an apparently spontaneous event and ask whether, even in the absence of spatiotemporal and co-variation cues linking the events, toddlers treat a plausible variable as a cause of the event. Toddlers (24 months) saw a toy that appeared to light up either spontaneously or after an experimenter’s action. Toddlers were also introduced to a button but were not shown any predictive relation between the button and the light. Across three different dependent measures of exploration, predictive looking (Study 1), prompted intervention (Study 2), and spontaneous exploration (Study 3), toddlers were more likely to represent the button as a cause of the light when the event appeared to occur spontaneously. In Study 4, we found that even in the absence of a plausible candidate cause, toddlers engaged in selective exploration when the light appeared to activate spontaneously. These results suggest that toddlers’ exploration is guided by the causal explanatory power of events. PMID:25566161
Spatial Inference for Distributed Remote Sensing Data
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Braverman, A. J.; Katzfuss, M.; Nguyen, H.
2014-12-01
Remote sensing data are inherently spatial, and a substantial portion of their value for scientific analyses derives from the information they can provide about spatially dependent processes. Geophysical variables such as atmopsheric temperature, cloud properties, humidity, aerosols and carbon dioxide all exhibit spatial patterns, and satellite observations can help us learn about the physical mechanisms driving them. However, remote sensing observations are often noisy and incomplete, so inferring properties of true geophysical fields from them requires some care. These data can also be massive, which is both a blessing and a curse: using more data drives uncertainties down, but also drives costs up, particularly when data are stored on different computers or in different physical locations. In this talk I will discuss a methodology for spatial inference on massive, distributed data sets that does not require moving large volumes of data. The idea is based on a combination of ideas including modeling spatial covariance structures with low-rank covariance matrices, and distributed estimation in sensor or wireless networks.
An Ada inference engine for expert systems
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lavallee, David B.
1986-01-01
The purpose is to investigate the feasibility of using Ada for rule-based expert systems with real-time performance requirements. This includes exploring the Ada features which give improved performance to expert systems as well as optimizing the tradeoffs or workarounds that the use of Ada may require. A prototype inference engine was built using Ada, and rule firing rates in excess of 500 per second were demonstrated on a single MC68000 processor. The knowledge base uses a directed acyclic graph to represent production lines. The graph allows the use of AND, OR, and NOT logical operators. The inference engine uses a combination of both forward and backward chaining in order to reach goals as quickly as possible. Future efforts will include additional investigation of multiprocessing to improve performance and creating a user interface allowing rule input in an Ada-like syntax. Investigation of multitasking and alternate knowledge base representations will help to analyze some of the performance issues as they relate to larger problems.
Causal Inference for Spatial Constancy across Saccades
Atsma, Jeroen; Maij, Femke; Koppen, Mathieu; Irwin, David E.; Medendorp, W. Pieter
2016-01-01
Our ability to interact with the environment hinges on creating a stable visual world despite the continuous changes in retinal input. To achieve visual stability, the brain must distinguish the retinal image shifts caused by eye movements and shifts due to movements of the visual scene. This process appears not to be flawless: during saccades, we often fail to detect whether visual objects remain stable or move, which is called saccadic suppression of displacement (SSD). How does the brain evaluate the memorized information of the presaccadic scene and the actual visual feedback of the postsaccadic visual scene in the computations for visual stability? Using a SSD task, we test how participants localize the presaccadic position of the fixation target, the saccade target or a peripheral non-foveated target that was displaced parallel or orthogonal during a horizontal saccade, and subsequently viewed for three different durations. Results showed different localization errors of the three targets, depending on the viewing time of the postsaccadic stimulus and its spatial separation from the presaccadic location. We modeled the data through a Bayesian causal inference mechanism, in which at the trial level an optimal mixing of two possible strategies, integration vs. separation of the presaccadic memory and the postsaccadic sensory signals, is applied. Fits of this model generally outperformed other plausible decision strategies for producing SSD. Our findings suggest that humans exploit a Bayesian inference process with two causal structures to mediate visual stability. PMID:26967730
Information Theory, Inference and Learning Algorithms
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mackay, David J. C.
2003-10-01
Information theory and inference, often taught separately, are here united in one entertaining textbook. These topics lie at the heart of many exciting areas of contemporary science and engineering - communication, signal processing, data mining, machine learning, pattern recognition, computational neuroscience, bioinformatics, and cryptography. This textbook introduces theory in tandem with applications. Information theory is taught alongside practical communication systems, such as arithmetic coding for data compression and sparse-graph codes for error-correction. A toolbox of inference techniques, including message-passing algorithms, Monte Carlo methods, and variational approximations, are developed alongside applications of these tools to clustering, convolutional codes, independent component analysis, and neural networks. The final part of the book describes the state of the art in error-correcting codes, including low-density parity-check codes, turbo codes, and digital fountain codes -- the twenty-first century standards for satellite communications, disk drives, and data broadcast. Richly illustrated, filled with worked examples and over 400 exercises, some with detailed solutions, David MacKay's groundbreaking book is ideal for self-learning and for undergraduate or graduate courses. Interludes on crosswords, evolution, and sex provide entertainment along the way. In sum, this is a textbook on information, communication, and coding for a new generation of students, and an unparalleled entry point into these subjects for professionals in areas as diverse as computational biology, financial engineering, and machine learning.
Natural frequencies facilitate diagnostic inferences of managers
Hoffrage, Ulrich; Hafenbrädl, Sebastian; Bouquet, Cyril
2015-01-01
In Bayesian inference tasks, information about base rates as well as hit rate and false-alarm rate needs to be integrated according to Bayes’ rule after the result of a diagnostic test became known. Numerous studies have found that presenting information in a Bayesian inference task in terms of natural frequencies leads to better performance compared to variants with information presented in terms of probabilities or percentages. Natural frequencies are the tallies in a natural sample in which hit rate and false-alarm rate are not normalized with respect to base rates. The present research replicates the beneficial effect of natural frequencies with four tasks from the domain of management, and with management students as well as experienced executives as participants. The percentage of Bayesian responses was almost twice as high when information was presented in natural frequencies compared to a presentation in terms of percentages. In contrast to most tasks previously studied, the majority of numerical responses were lower than the Bayesian solutions. Having heard of Bayes’ rule prior to the study did not affect Bayesian performance. An implication of our work is that textbooks explaining Bayes’ rule should teach how to represent information in terms of natural frequencies instead of how to plug probabilities or percentages into a formula. PMID:26157397
Rahmati, Vahid; Kirmse, Knut; Marković, Dimitrije; Holthoff, Knut; Kiebel, Stefan J.
2016-01-01
Calcium imaging has been used as a promising technique to monitor the dynamic activity of neuronal populations. However, the calcium trace is temporally smeared which restricts the extraction of quantities of interest such as spike trains of individual neurons. To address this issue, spike reconstruction algorithms have been introduced. One limitation of such reconstructions is that the underlying models are not informed about the biophysics of spike and burst generations. Such existing prior knowledge might be useful for constraining the possible solutions of spikes. Here we describe, in a novel Bayesian approach, how principled knowledge about neuronal dynamics can be employed to infer biophysical variables and parameters from fluorescence traces. By using both synthetic and in vitro recorded fluorescence traces, we demonstrate that the new approach is able to reconstruct different repetitive spiking and/or bursting patterns with accurate single spike resolution. Furthermore, we show that the high inference precision of the new approach is preserved even if the fluorescence trace is rather noisy or if the fluorescence transients show slow rise kinetics lasting several hundred milliseconds, and inhomogeneous rise and decay times. In addition, we discuss the use of the new approach for inferring parameter changes, e.g. due to a pharmacological intervention, as well as for inferring complex characteristics of immature neuronal circuits. PMID:26894748
Measure of librarian pressure using fuzzy inference system: A case study in Longyan University
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huang, Jian-Jing
2014-10-01
As the hierarchy of middle managers in college's librarian. They may own much work pressure from their mind. How to adapt psychological problem, control the emotion and keep a good relationship in their work place, it becomes an important issue. Especially, they work in China mainland environment. How estimate the librarians work pressure and improve the quality of service in college libraries. Those are another serious issues. In this article, the authors would like discuss how can we use fuzzy inference to test librarian work pressure.
Automated Interpretation of LIBS Spectra using a Fuzzy Logic Inference Engine
Jeremy J. Hatch; Timothy R. McJunkin; Cynthia Hanson; Jill R. Scott
2012-02-01
Automated interpretation of laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) data is necessary due to the plethora of spectra that can be acquired in a relatively short time. However, traditional chemometric and artificial neural network methods that have been employed are not always transparent to a skilled user. A fuzzy logic approach to data interpretation has now been adapted to LIBS spectral interpretation. A fuzzy logic inference engine (FLIE) was used to differentiate between various copper containing and stainless steel alloys as well as unknowns. Results using FLIE indicate a high degree of confidence in spectral assignment.
Children's inference generation: The role of vocabulary and working memory.
Currie, Nicola Kate; Cain, Kate
2015-09-01
Inferences are crucial to successful discourse comprehension. We assessed the contributions of vocabulary and working memory to inference making in children aged 5 and 6years (n=44), 7 and 8years (n=43), and 9 and 10years (n=43). Children listened to short narratives and answered questions to assess local and global coherence inferences after each one. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) confirmed developmental improvements on both types of inference. Although standardized measures of both vocabulary and working memory were correlated with inference making, multiple regression analyses determined that vocabulary was the key predictor. For local coherence inferences, only vocabulary predicted unique variance for the 6- and 8-year-olds; in contrast, none of the variables predicted performance for the 10-year-olds. For global coherence inferences, vocabulary was the only unique predictor for each age group. Mediation analysis confirmed that although working memory was associated with the ability to generate local and global coherence inferences in 6- to 10-year-olds, the effect was mediated by vocabulary. We conclude that vocabulary knowledge supports inference making in two ways: through knowledge of word meanings required to generate inferences and through its contribution to memory processes. PMID:25930678
Palamara, Gian Marco; Childs, Dylan Z; Clements, Christopher F; Petchey, Owen L; Plebani, Marco; Smith, Matthew J
2014-12-01
Understanding and quantifying the temperature dependence of population parameters, such as intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity, is critical for predicting the ecological responses to environmental change. Many studies provide empirical estimates of such temperature dependencies, but a thorough investigation of the methods used to infer them has not been performed yet. We created artificial population time series using a stochastic logistic model parameterized with the Arrhenius equation, so that activation energy drives the temperature dependence of population parameters. We simulated different experimental designs and used different inference methods, varying the likelihood functions and other aspects of the parameter estimation methods. Finally, we applied the best performing inference methods to real data for the species Paramecium caudatum. The relative error of the estimates of activation energy varied between 5% and 30%. The fraction of habitat sampled played the most important role in determining the relative error; sampling at least 1% of the habitat kept it below 50%. We found that methods that simultaneously use all time series data (direct methods) and methods that estimate population parameters separately for each temperature (indirect methods) are complementary. Indirect methods provide a clearer insight into the shape of the functional form describing the temperature dependence of population parameters; direct methods enable a more accurate estimation of the parameters of such functional forms. Using both methods, we found that growth rate and carrying capacity of Paramecium caudatum scale with temperature according to different activation energies. Our study shows how careful choice of experimental design and inference methods can increase the accuracy of the inferred relationships between temperature and population parameters. The comparison of estimation methods provided here can increase the accuracy of model predictions, with important
Adaptation and adaptation transfer characteristics of five different saccade types in the monkey.
Kojima, Yoshiko; Fuchs, Albert F; Soetedjo, Robijanto
2015-07-01
Shifts in the direction of gaze are accomplished by different kinds of saccades, which are elicited under different circumstances. Saccade types include targeting saccades to simple jumping targets, delayed saccades to visible targets after a waiting period, memory-guided (MG) saccades to remembered target locations, scanning saccades to stationary target arrays, and express saccades after very short latencies. Studies of human cases and neurophysiological experiments in monkeys suggest that separate pathways, which converge on a common locus that provides the motor command, generate these different types of saccade. When behavioral manipulations in humans cause targeting saccades to have persistent dysmetrias as might occur naturally from growth, aging, and injury, they gradually adapt to reduce the dysmetria. Although results differ slightly between laboratories, this adaptation generalizes or transfers to all the other saccade types mentioned above. Also, when one of the other types of saccade undergoes adaptation, it often transfers to another saccade type. Similar adaptation and transfer experiments, which allow inferences to be drawn about the site(s) of adaptation for different saccade types, have yet to be done in monkeys. Here we show that simian targeting and MG saccades adapt more than express, scanning, and delayed saccades. Adaptation of targeting saccades transfers to all the other saccade types. However, the adaptation of MG saccades transfers only to delayed saccades. These data suggest that adaptation of simian targeting saccades occurs on the pathway common to all saccade types. In contrast, only the delayed saccade command passes through the adaptation site of the MG saccade. PMID:25855693
Inferences of weekly cycles in summertime rainfall
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tuttle, John D.; Carbone, Richard E.
2011-10-01
In several continental regions a weekly cycle of air pollution aerosols has been observed. It is usually characterized by concentration minima on weekends (Saturday and Sunday) and maxima on weekdays (Tuesday-Friday). Several studies have associated varying aerosol concentrations with precipitation production and attempted to determine whether or not there is a corresponding weekly cycle of precipitation. Results to date have been mixed. Here we examine a 12 year national composited radar data set for evidence of weekly precipitation cycles during the warm season (June-August). Various statistical quantities are calculated and subjected to "bootstrap" testing in order to assess significance. In many parts of the United States, warm season precipitation is relatively infrequent, with a few extreme events contributing to a large percentage of the total 12 year rainfall. For this reason, the statistics are often difficult to interpret. The general area east of the Mississippi River and north of 37°N contains regions where 25%-50% daily rainfall increases are inferred for weekdays (Tuesday-Friday) relative to weekends. The statistics suggest that western Pennsylvania is the largest and most likely contiguous region to have a weekly cycle. Parts of northern Florida and southeastern coastal areas infer a reverse-phase cycle, with less rainfall during the week than on weekends. Spot checks of surface rain gauge data confirm the phase of these radar-observed anomalies in both Pennsylvania and Florida. While there are indications of a weekly cycle in other locations of the United States, the degree of confidence is considerably lower. There is a strong statistical inference of weekday rainfall maxima over a net 8% of the area examined, which is approximately twice the area of cities. Future examination of lofted aerosol content, related condensation/ice nuclei spectra, and knowledge of the convective dynamical regime are needed in order to assess how anthropogenic aerosols
Length Scales in Bayesian Automatic Adaptive Quadrature
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Adam, Gh.; Adam, S.
2016-02-01
Two conceptual developments in the Bayesian automatic adaptive quadrature approach to the numerical solution of one-dimensional Riemann integrals [Gh. Adam, S. Adam, Springer LNCS 7125, 1-16 (2012)] are reported. First, it is shown that the numerical quadrature which avoids the overcomputing and minimizes the hidden floating point loss of precision asks for the consideration of three classes of integration domain lengths endowed with specific quadrature sums: microscopic (trapezoidal rule), mesoscopic (Simpson rule), and macroscopic (quadrature sums of high algebraic degrees of precision). Second, sensitive diagnostic tools for the Bayesian inference on macroscopic ranges, coming from the use of Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature, are derived.
Habituation of visual adaptation
Dong, Xue; Gao, Yi; Lv, Lili; Bao, Min
2016-01-01
Our sensory system adjusts its function driven by both shorter-term (e.g. adaptation) and longer-term (e.g. learning) experiences. Most past adaptation literature focuses on short-term adaptation. Only recently researchers have begun to investigate how adaptation changes over a span of days. This question is important, since in real life many environmental changes stretch over multiple days or longer. However, the answer to the question remains largely unclear. Here we addressed this issue by tracking perceptual bias (also known as aftereffect) induced by motion or contrast adaptation across multiple daily adaptation sessions. Aftereffects were measured every day after adaptation, which corresponded to the degree of adaptation on each day. For passively viewed adapters, repeated adaptation attenuated aftereffects. Once adapters were presented with an attentional task, aftereffects could either reduce for easy tasks, or initially show an increase followed by a later decrease for demanding tasks. Quantitative analysis of the decay rates in contrast adaptation showed that repeated exposure of the adapter appeared to be equivalent to adaptation to a weaker stimulus. These results suggest that both attention and a non-attentional habituation-like mechanism jointly determine how adaptation develops across multiple daily sessions. PMID:26739917
Habituation of visual adaptation.
Dong, Xue; Gao, Yi; Lv, Lili; Bao, Min
2016-01-01
Our sensory system adjusts its function driven by both shorter-term (e.g. adaptation) and longer-term (e.g. learning) experiences. Most past adaptation literature focuses on short-term adaptation. Only recently researchers have begun to investigate how adaptation changes over a span of days. This question is important, since in real life many environmental changes stretch over multiple days or longer. However, the answer to the question remains largely unclear. Here we addressed this issue by tracking perceptual bias (also known as aftereffect) induced by motion or contrast adaptation across multiple daily adaptation sessions. Aftereffects were measured every day after adaptation, which corresponded to the degree of adaptation on each day. For passively viewed adapters, repeated adaptation attenuated aftereffects. Once adapters were presented with an attentional task, aftereffects could either reduce for easy tasks, or initially show an increase followed by a later decrease for demanding tasks. Quantitative analysis of the decay rates in contrast adaptation showed that repeated exposure of the adapter appeared to be equivalent to adaptation to a weaker stimulus. These results suggest that both attention and a non-attentional habituation-like mechanism jointly determine how adaptation develops across multiple daily sessions. PMID:26739917
SERIES - Satellite Emission Range Inferred Earth Surveying
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Macdoran, P. F.; Spitzmesser, D. J.; Buennagel, L. A.
1983-01-01
The Satellite Emission Range Inferred Earth Surveying (SERIES) concept is based on the utilization of NAVSTAR Global Positioning System (GPS) radio transmissions without any satellite modifications and in a totally passive mode. The SERIES stations are equipped with lightweight 1.5 m diameter dish antennas mounted on trailers. A series baseline measurement accuracy demonstration is considered, taking into account a 100 meter baseline estimation from approximately one hour of differential Doppler data. It is planned to conduct the next phase of experiments on a 150 m baseline. Attention is given to details regarding future baseline measurement accuracy demonstrations, aspects of ionospheric calibration in connection with subdecimeter baseline accuracy requirements of geodesy, and advantages related to the use of the differential Doppler or pseudoranging mode.
Chloroplast Phylogenomic Inference of Green Algae Relationships
Sun, Linhua; Fang, Ling; Zhang, Zhenhua; Chang, Xin; Penny, David; Zhong, Bojian
2016-01-01
The green algal phylum Chlorophyta has six diverse classes, but the phylogenetic relationship of the classes within Chlorophyta remains uncertain. In order to better understand the ancient Chlorophyta evolution, we have applied a site pattern sorting method to study compositional heterogeneity and the model fit in the green algal chloroplast genomic data. We show that the fastest-evolving sites are significantly correlated with among-site compositional heterogeneity, and these sites have a much poorer fit to the evolutionary model. Our phylogenomic analyses suggest that the class Chlorophyceae is a monophyletic group, and the classes Ulvophyceae, Trebouxiophyceae and Prasinophyceae are non-monophyletic groups. Our proposed phylogenetic tree of Chlorophyta will offer new insights to investigate ancient green algae evolution, and our analytical framework will provide a useful approach for evaluating and mitigating the potential errors of phylogenomic inferences. PMID:26846729
Migration of objects and inferences across episodes.
Hannigan, Sharon L; Reinitz, Mark Tippens
2003-04-01
Participants viewed episodes in the form of a series of photographs portraying ordinary routines (e.g., eating at a restaurant) and later received a recognition test. In Experiment 1, it was shown that objects (e.g., a vase of flowers, a pewter lantern) that appeared in a single episode during the study phase migrated between memories of episodes described by the same abstract schema (e.g., from Restaurant Episode A at study to Restaurant Episode B at test), and not between episodes anchored by different schemas. In Experiment 2, it was demonstrated that backward causal inferences from one study episode influenced memories of other episodes described by the same schema, and that high-schema-relevant items viewed in one episode were sometimes remembered as having occurred in another episode of the same schematic type. PMID:12795485
ExplainHoudini: Making Houdini Inference Transparent
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lahiri, Shuvendu K.; Vanegue, Julien
Houdini is a simple yet scalable technique for annotation inference for modular contract checking. The input to Houdini is a set of candidate annotations, and the output is a consistent subset of these candidates. Since this technique is most useful as an annotation assistant for user-guided refinement of annotations, understanding the reason for the removal of annotations is crucial for a user to refine the set of annotations, and classify false errors easily. This is especially true for applying Houdini to large legacy modules with thousands of procedures and deep call chains. In this work we present a method ExplainHoudini that explains the reason why a given candidate was removed, purely in terms of the existing candidates. We have implemented this algorithm and provide preliminary experience of applying it on large modules.
Inferring coalescence times from DNA sequence data.
Tavaré, S; Balding, D J; Griffiths, R C; Donnelly, P
1997-02-01
The paper is concerned with methods for the estimation of the coalescence time (time since the most recent common ancestor) of a sample of intraspecies DNA sequences. The methods take advantage of prior knowledge of population demography, in addition to the molecular data. While some theoretical results are presented, a central focus is on computational methods. These methods are easy to implement, and, since explicit formulae tend to be either unavailable or unilluminating, they are also more useful and more informative in most applications. Extensions are presented that allow for the effects of uncertainty in our knowledge of population size and mutation rates, for variability in population sizes, for regions of different mutation rate, and for inference concerning the coalescence time of the entire population. The methods are illustrated using recent data from the human Y chromosome. PMID:9071603
Inferring biological dynamics in heterogeneous cellular environments
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pressé, Steve
In complex environments, it often appears that biomolecules such as proteins do not diffuse normally. That is, their mean square displacement does not scale linearly with time. This anomalous diffusion happens for multiple reasons: proteins can bind to structures and other proteins; fluorophores used to label proteins may flicker or blink making it appear that the labeled protein is diffusing anomalously; and proteins can diffuse in differently crowded environments. Here we describe methods for learning about such processes from imaging data collected inside the heterogeneous environment of the living cell. Refs.: ''Inferring Diffusional Dynamics from FCS in Heterogeneous Nuclear Environments'' Konstantinos Tsekouras, Amanda Siegel, Richard N. Day, Steve Pressé*, Biophys. J. , 109, 7 (2015). ''A data-driven alternative to the fractional Fokker-Planck equation'' Steve Pressé*, J. Stat. Phys.: Th. and Expmt. , P07009 (2015).
Inference of fitness from genealogical trees
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vucelja, Marija; Dayarian, Adel; Shraiman, Boris
2013-03-01
Natural populations are fitness diverse and can have numerous genes under selection. The genealogical trees, that one obtains by sampling, often bear hallmarks of selection, such multiple mergers, asymmetric tree branches and long terminal branches (the trees are squished towards the root). These are qualitative differences compared to trees in the absence of selection. We propose a theoretical model that links the morphology of a tree with the fitness of the leaves. We obtain multipoint correlation functions of the fitness along the tree. In this way we are able extract some quantitative information about the strength of selection from data-reconstructed trees. The extensions of this approach can potentially be useful for inferring relative fitness of sequenced genomes of tumors and for predicting viral outbreaks.
Cancer Evolution: Mathematical Models and Computational Inference
Beerenwinkel, Niko; Schwarz, Roland F.; Gerstung, Moritz; Markowetz, Florian
2015-01-01
Cancer is a somatic evolutionary process characterized by the accumulation of mutations, which contribute to tumor growth, clinical progression, immune escape, and drug resistance development. Evolutionary theory can be used to analyze the dynamics of tumor cell populations and to make inference about the evolutionary history of a tumor from molecular data. We review recent approaches to modeling the evolution of cancer, including population dynamics models of tumor initiation and progression, phylogenetic methods to model the evolutionary relationship between tumor subclones, and probabilistic graphical models to describe dependencies among mutations. Evolutionary modeling helps to understand how tumors arise and will also play an increasingly important prognostic role in predicting disease progression and the outcome of medical interventions, such as targeted therapy. PMID:25293804
Single-Trial Inference on Visual Attention
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dyrholm, Mads; Kyllingsbæk, Søren; Vangkilde, Signe; Habekost, Thomas; Bundesen, Claus
2011-06-01
In this paper we take a step towards single-trial behavioral modeling within a Theory of Visual Attention (TVA). In selective attention tasks, such as the Partial Report paradigm, the subject is asked to ignore distractors and only report stimuli that belong to the target class. Nothing about a distractor is observed directly in the subject's overt behavior, hence behavioral modeling of such trials involves out-marginalizing the variables that represent the distractors' influence on behavior. In this paper we derive equations for inferring a latent representation of the distractors on a Partial Report trial. This result retrodicts a latent attentional state of the subject using the observed response from that particular trial and thus differs from other predictions made with TVA which are based on expected values of observed variables. We show an example of the result in single-trial analysis of an occipital EEG component.
BINOCh: binding inference from nucleosome occupancy changes
Meyer, Clifford A.; He, Housheng H.; Brown, Myles; Liu, X. Shirley
2011-01-01
Summary: Transcription factor binding events are frequently associated with a pattern of nucleosome occupancy changes in which nucleosomes flanking the binding site increase in occupancy, while those in the vicinity of the binding site itself are displaced. Genome-wide information on enhancer proximal nucleosome occupancy can be readily acquired using ChIP-seq targeting enhancer-related histone modifications such as H3K4me2. Here, we present a software package, BINOCh that allows biologists to use such data to infer the identity of key transcription factors that regulate the response of a cell to a stimulus or determine a program of differentiation. Availability: The BINOCh open source Python package is freely available at http://liulab.dfci.harvard.edu/BINOCh under the FreeBSD license. Contact: cliff@jimmy.harvard.edu; xsliu@jimmy.harvard.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:21551136
Bayesian inference tools for inverse problems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mohammad-Djafari, Ali
2013-08-01
In this paper, first the basics of Bayesian inference with a parametric model of the data is presented. Then, the needed extensions are given when dealing with inverse problems and in particular the linear models such as Deconvolution or image reconstruction in Computed Tomography (CT). The main point to discuss then is the prior modeling of signals and images. A classification of these priors is presented, first in separable and Markovien models and then in simple or hierarchical with hidden variables. For practical applications, we need also to consider the estimation of the hyper parameters. Finally, we see that we have to infer simultaneously on the unknowns, the hidden variables and the hyper parameters. Very often, the expression of this joint posterior law is too complex to be handled directly. Indeed, rarely we can obtain analytical solutions to any point estimators such the Maximum A posteriori (MAP) or Posterior Mean (PM). Three main tools are then can be used: Laplace approximation (LAP), Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Bayesian Variational Approximations (BVA). To illustrate all these aspects, we will consider a deconvolution problem where we know that the input signal is sparse and propose to use a Student-t prior for that. Then, to handle the Bayesian computations with this model, we use the property of Student-t which is modelling it via an infinite mixture of Gaussians, introducing thus hidden variables which are the variances. Then, the expression of the joint posterior of the input signal samples, the hidden variables (which are here the inverse variances of those samples) and the hyper-parameters of the problem (for example the variance of the noise) is given. From this point, we will present the joint maximization by alternate optimization and the three possible approximation methods. Finally, the proposed methodology is applied in different applications such as mass spectrometry, spectrum estimation of quasi periodic biological signals and
Nuclear Forensic Inferences Using Iterative Multidimensional Statistics
Robel, M; Kristo, M J; Heller, M A
2009-06-09
Nuclear forensics involves the analysis of interdicted nuclear material for specific material characteristics (referred to as 'signatures') that imply specific geographical locations, production processes, culprit intentions, etc. Predictive signatures rely on expert knowledge of physics, chemistry, and engineering to develop inferences from these material characteristics. Comparative signatures, on the other hand, rely on comparison of the material characteristics of the interdicted sample (the 'questioned sample' in FBI parlance) with those of a set of known samples. In the ideal case, the set of known samples would be a comprehensive nuclear forensics database, a database which does not currently exist. In fact, our ability to analyze interdicted samples and produce an extensive list of precise materials characteristics far exceeds our ability to interpret the results. Therefore, as we seek to develop the extensive databases necessary for nuclear forensics, we must also develop the methods necessary to produce the necessary inferences from comparison of our analytical results with these large, multidimensional sets of data. In the work reported here, we used a large, multidimensional dataset of results from quality control analyses of uranium ore concentrate (UOC, sometimes called 'yellowcake'). We have found that traditional multidimensional techniques, such as principal components analysis (PCA), are especially useful for understanding such datasets and drawing relevant conclusions. In particular, we have developed an iterative partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) procedure that has proven especially adept at identifying the production location of unknown UOC samples. By removing classes which fell far outside the initial decision boundary, and then rebuilding the PLS-DA model, we have consistently produced better and more definitive attributions than with a single pass classification approach. Performance of the iterative PLS-DA method
Network geometry inference using common neighbors
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Papadopoulos, Fragkiskos; Aldecoa, Rodrigo; Krioukov, Dmitri
2015-08-01
We introduce and explore a method for inferring hidden geometric coordinates of nodes in complex networks based on the number of common neighbors between the nodes. We compare this approach to the HyperMap method, which is based only on the connections (and disconnections) between the nodes, i.e., on the links that the nodes have (or do not have). We find that for high degree nodes, the common-neighbors approach yields a more accurate inference than the link-based method, unless heuristic periodic adjustments (or "correction steps") are used in the latter. The common-neighbors approach is computationally intensive, requiring O (t4) running time to map a network of t nodes, versus O (t3) in the link-based method. But we also develop a hybrid method with O (t3) running time, which combines the common-neighbors and link-based approaches, and we explore a heuristic that reduces its running time further to O (t2) , without significant reduction in the mapping accuracy. We apply this method to the autonomous systems (ASs) Internet, and we reveal how soft communities of ASs evolve over time in the similarity space. We further demonstrate the method's predictive power by forecasting future links between ASs. Taken altogether, our results advance our understanding of how to efficiently and accurately map real networks to their latent geometric spaces, which is an important necessary step toward understanding the laws that govern the dynamics of nodes in these spaces, and the fine-grained dynamics of network connections.
Network geometry inference using common neighbors.
Papadopoulos, Fragkiskos; Aldecoa, Rodrigo; Krioukov, Dmitri
2015-08-01
We introduce and explore a method for inferring hidden geometric coordinates of nodes in complex networks based on the number of common neighbors between the nodes. We compare this approach to the HyperMap method, which is based only on the connections (and disconnections) between the nodes, i.e., on the links that the nodes have (or do not have). We find that for high degree nodes, the common-neighbors approach yields a more accurate inference than the link-based method, unless heuristic periodic adjustments (or "correction steps") are used in the latter. The common-neighbors approach is computationally intensive, requiring O(t4) running time to map a network of t nodes, versus O(t3) in the link-based method. But we also develop a hybrid method with O(t3) running time, which combines the common-neighbors and link-based approaches, and we explore a heuristic that reduces its running time further to O(t2), without significant reduction in the mapping accuracy. We apply this method to the autonomous systems (ASs) Internet, and we reveal how soft communities of ASs evolve over time in the similarity space. We further demonstrate the method's predictive power by forecasting future links between ASs. Taken altogether, our results advance our understanding of how to efficiently and accurately map real networks to their latent geometric spaces, which is an important necessary step toward understanding the laws that govern the dynamics of nodes in these spaces, and the fine-grained dynamics of network connections. PMID:26382454
Neural representation of probabilities for Bayesian inference.
Rich, Dylan; Cazettes, Fanny; Wang, Yunyan; Peña, José Luis; Fischer, Brian J
2015-04-01
Bayesian models are often successful in describing perception and behavior, but the neural representation of probabilities remains in question. There are several distinct proposals for the neural representation of probabilities, but they have not been directly compared in an example system. Here we consider three models: a non-uniform population code where the stimulus-driven activity and distribution of preferred stimuli in the population represent a likelihood function and a prior, respectively; the sampling hypothesis which proposes that the stimulus-driven activity over time represents a posterior probability and that the spontaneous activity represents a prior; and the class of models which propose that a population of neurons represents a posterior probability in a distributed code. It has been shown that the non-uniform population code model matches the representation of auditory space generated in the owl's external nucleus of the inferior colliculus (ICx). However, the alternative models have not been tested, nor have the three models been directly compared in any system. Here we tested the three models in the owl's ICx. We found that spontaneous firing rate and the average stimulus-driven response of these neurons were not consistent with predictions of the sampling hypothesis. We also found that neural activity in ICx under varying levels of sensory noise did not reflect a posterior probability. On the other hand, the responses of ICx neurons were consistent with the non-uniform population code model. We further show that Bayesian inference can be implemented in the non-uniform population code model using one spike per neuron when the population is large and is thus able to support the rapid inference that is necessary for sound localization. PMID:25561333
Pathway network inference from gene expression data
2014-01-01
Background The development of high-throughput omics technologies enabled genome-wide measurements of the activity of cellular elements and provides the analytical resources for the progress of the Systems Biology discipline. Analysis and interpretation of gene expression data has evolved from the gene to the pathway and interaction level, i.e. from the detection of differentially expressed genes, to the establishment of gene interaction networks and the identification of enriched functional categories. Still, the understanding of biological systems requires a further level of analysis that addresses the characterization of the interaction between functional modules. Results We present a novel computational methodology to study the functional interconnections among the molecular elements of a biological system. The PANA approach uses high-throughput genomics measurements and a functional annotation scheme to extract an activity profile from each functional block -or pathway- followed by machine-learning methods to infer the relationships between these functional profiles. The result is a global, interconnected network of pathways that represents the functional cross-talk within the molecular system. We have applied this approach to describe the functional transcriptional connections during the yeast cell cycle and to identify pathways that change their connectivity in a disease condition using an Alzheimer example. Conclusions PANA is a useful tool to deepen in our understanding of the functional interdependences that operate within complex biological systems. We show the approach is algorithmically consistent and the inferred network is well supported by the available functional data. The method allows the dissection of the molecular basis of the functional connections and we describe the different regulatory mechanisms that explain the network's topology obtained for the yeast cell cycle data. PMID:25032889
Interplanetary magnetic sector polarity inferred from polar geomagnetic field observations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Friis-Christensen, E.; Lassen, K.; Wilcox, J. M.; Gonzalez, W.; Colburn, D. S.
1971-01-01
In order to infer the interplanetary sector polarity from polar geomagnetic field diurnal variations, measurements were carried out at Godhavn and Thule (Denmark) Geomagnetic Observatories. The inferred interplanetary sector polarity was compared with the polarity observed at the same time by Explorer 33 and 35 magnetometers. It is shown that the polarity (toward or away from the sun) of the interplanetary magnetic field can be reliably inferred from observations of the polar cap geomagnetic fields.
Fuzzy inference game approach to uncertainty in business decisions and market competitions.
Oderanti, Festus Oluseyi
2013-01-01
The increasing challenges and complexity of business environments are making business decisions and operations more difficult for entrepreneurs to predict the outcomes of these processes. Therefore, we developed a decision support scheme that could be used and adapted to various business decision processes. These involve decisions that are made under uncertain situations such as business competition in the market or wage negotiation within a firm. The scheme uses game strategies and fuzzy inference concepts to effectively grasp the variables in these uncertain situations. The games are played between human and fuzzy players. The accuracy of the fuzzy rule base and the game strategies help to mitigate the adverse effects that a business may suffer from these uncertain factors. We also introduced learning which enables the fuzzy player to adapt over time. We tested this scheme in different scenarios and discover that it could be an invaluable tool in the hand of entrepreneurs that are operating under uncertain and competitive business environments. PMID:24109562
Proteomics inference of genes involved in host adaptation of Mycoplasma gallinarum
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
Different from most other host-specific mycoplasmas, Mycoplasma gallinarum has been isolated from various hosts, such as poultry, pig, cattle, and sheep. The wide distribution among different hosts, the low pathogenesis, and the weak host immunological responses suggest this mycoplasma has a unique ...
Inferring word meanings by assuming that speakers are informative.
Frank, Michael C; Goodman, Noah D
2014-12-01
Language comprehension is more than a process of decoding the literal meaning of a speaker's utterance. Instead, by making the assumption that speakers choose their words to be informative in context, listeners routinely make pragmatic inferences that go beyond the linguistic data. If language learners make these same assumptions, they should be able to infer word meanings in otherwise ambiguous situations. We use probabilistic tools to formalize these kinds of informativeness inferences-extending a model of pragmatic language comprehension to the acquisition setting-and present four experiments whose data suggest that preschool children can use informativeness to infer word meanings and that adult judgments track quantitatively with informativeness. PMID:25238461
Inferring ancestry from population genomic data and its applications
Padhukasahasram, Badri
2014-01-01
Ancestry inference is a frequently encountered problem and has many applications such as forensic analyses, genetic association studies, and personal genomics. The main goal of ancestry inference is to identify an individual’s population of origin based on our knowledge of natural populations. Because both self-reported ancestry in humans or the sampling location of an organism can be inaccurate for this purpose, the use of genetic markers can facilitate accurate and reliable inference of an individual’s ancestral origins. At a higher level, there are two different paradigms in ancestry inference: global ancestry inference which tries to compute the genome-wide average of the population contributions and local ancestry inference which tries to identify the regional ancestry of a genomic segment. In this mini review, I describe the numerous approaches that are currently available for both kinds of ancestry inference from population genomic datasets. I first describe the general ideas underlying such inference methods and their relationship to one another. Then, I describe practical applications in which inference of ancestry has proven useful. Lastly, I discuss challenges and directions for future research work in this area. PMID:25071832
Expressing Adaptation Strategies Using Adaptation Patterns
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Zemirline, N.; Bourda, Y.; Reynaud, C.
2012-01-01
Today, there is a real challenge to enable personalized access to information. Several systems have been proposed to address this challenge including Adaptive Hypermedia Systems (AHSs). However, the specification of adaptation strategies remains a difficult task for creators of such systems. In this paper, we consider the problem of the definition…
Inferring topologies via driving-based generalized synchronization of two-layer networks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Yingfei; Wu, Xiaoqun; Feng, Hui; Lu, Jun-an; Xu, Yuhua
2016-05-01
The interaction topology among the constituents of a complex network plays a crucial role in the network’s evolutionary mechanisms and functional behaviors. However, some network topologies are usually unknown or uncertain. Meanwhile, coupling delays are ubiquitous in various man-made and natural networks. Hence, it is necessary to gain knowledge of the whole or partial topology of a complex dynamical network by taking into consideration communication delay. In this paper, topology identification of complex dynamical networks is investigated via generalized synchronization of a two-layer network. Particularly, based on the LaSalle-type invariance principle of stochastic differential delay equations, an adaptive control technique is proposed by constructing an auxiliary layer and designing proper control input and updating laws so that the unknown topology can be recovered upon successful generalized synchronization. Numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The technique provides a certain theoretical basis for topology inference of complex networks. In particular, when the considered network is composed of systems with high-dimension or complicated dynamics, a simpler response layer can be constructed, which is conducive to circuit design. Moreover, it is practical to take into consideration perturbations caused by control input. Finally, the method is applicable to infer topology of a subnetwork embedded within a complex system and locate hidden sources. We hope the results can provide basic insight into further research endeavors on understanding practical and economical topology inference of networks.
Adapting overcomplete wavelet models to natural images
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sallee, Phil; Olshausen, Bruno A.
2003-11-01
Overcomplete wavelet representations have become increasingly popular for their ability to provide highly sparse and robust descriptions of natural signals. We describe a method for incorporating an overcomplete wavelet representation as part of a statistical model of images which includes a sparse prior distribution over the wavelet coefficients. The wavelet basis functions are parameterized by a small set of 2-D functions. These functions are adapted to maximize the average log-likelihood of the model for a large database of natural images. When adapted to natural images, these functions become selective to different spatial orientations, and they achieve a superior degree of sparsity on natural images as compared with traditional wavelet bases. The learned basis is similar to the Steerable Pyramid basis, and yields slightly higher SNR for the same number of active coefficients. Inference with the learned model is demonstrated for applications such as denoising, with results that compare favorably with other methods.
Streamflow Forecasting Using Nuero-Fuzzy Inference System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nanduri, U. V.; Swain, P. C.
2005-12-01
The prediction of flow into a reservoir is fundamental in water resources planning and management. The need for timely and accurate streamflow forecasting is widely recognized and emphasized by many in water resources fraternity. Real-time forecasts of natural inflows to reservoirs are of particular interest for operation and scheduling. The physical system of the river basin that takes the rainfall as an input and produces the runoff is highly nonlinear, complicated and very difficult to fully comprehend. The system is influenced by large number of factors and variables. The large spatial extent of the systems forces the uncertainty into the hydrologic information. A variety of methods have been proposed for forecasting reservoir inflows including conceptual (physical) and empirical (statistical) models (WMO 1994), but none of them can be considered as unique superior model (Shamseldin 1997). Owing to difficulties of formulating reasonable non-linear watershed models, recent attempts have resorted to Neural Network (NN) approach for complex hydrologic modeling. In recent years the use of soft computing in the field of hydrological forecasting is gaining ground. The relatively new soft computing technique of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), developed by Jang (1993) is able to take care of the non-linearity, uncertainty, and vagueness embedded in the system. It is a judicious combination of the Neural Networks and fuzzy systems. It can learn and generalize highly nonlinear and uncertain phenomena due to the embedded neural network (NN). NN is efficient in learning and generalization, and the fuzzy system mimics the cognitive capability of human brain. Hence, ANFIS can learn the complicated processes involved in the basin and correlate the precipitation to the corresponding discharge. In the present study, one step ahead forecasts are made for ten-daily flows, which are mostly required for short term operational planning of multipurpose reservoirs. A
Serang, Oliver
2014-01-01
Exact Bayesian inference can sometimes be performed efficiently for special cases where a function has commutative and associative symmetry of its inputs (called “causal independence”). For this reason, it is desirable to exploit such symmetry on big data sets. Here we present a method to exploit a general form of this symmetry on probabilistic adder nodes by transforming those probabilistic adder nodes into a probabilistic convolution tree with which dynamic programming computes exact probabilities. A substantial speedup is demonstrated using an illustration example that can arise when identifying splice forms with bottom-up mass spectrometry-based proteomics. On this example, even state-of-the-art exact inference algorithms require a runtime more than exponential in the number of splice forms considered. By using the probabilistic convolution tree, we reduce the runtime to and the space to where is the number of variables joined by an additive or cardinal operator. This approach, which can also be used with junction tree inference, is applicable to graphs with arbitrary dependency on counting variables or cardinalities and can be used on diverse problems and fields like forward error correcting codes, elemental decomposition, and spectral demixing. The approach also trivially generalizes to multiple dimensions. PMID:24626234
Inferring Network Dynamics and Neuron Properties from Population Recordings
Linaro, Daniele; Storace, Marco; Mattia, Maurizio
2011-01-01
Understanding the computational capabilities of the nervous system means to “identify” its emergent multiscale dynamics. For this purpose, we propose a novel model-driven identification procedure and apply it to sparsely connected populations of excitatory integrate-and-fire neurons with spike frequency adaptation (SFA). Our method does not characterize the system from its microscopic elements in a bottom-up fashion, and does not resort to any linearization. We investigate networks as a whole, inferring their properties from the response dynamics of the instantaneous discharge rate to brief and aspecific supra-threshold stimulations. While several available methods assume generic expressions for the system as a black box, we adopt a mean-field theory for the evolution of the network transparently parameterized by identified elements (such as dynamic timescales), which are in turn non-trivially related to single-neuron properties. In particular, from the elicited transient responses, the input–output gain function of the neurons in the network is extracted and direct links to the microscopic level are made available: indeed, we show how to extract the decay time constant of the SFA, the absolute refractory period and the average synaptic efficacy. In addition and contrary to previous attempts, our method captures the system dynamics across bifurcations separating qualitatively different dynamical regimes. The robustness and the generality of the methodology is tested on controlled simulations, reporting a good agreement between theoretically expected and identified values. The assumptions behind the underlying theoretical framework make the method readily applicable to biological preparations like cultured neuron networks and in vitro brain slices. PMID:22016731
Staude, Benjamin; Grün, Sonja; Rotter, Stefan
2009-01-01
The extent to which groups of neurons exhibit higher-order correlations in their spiking activity is a controversial issue in current brain research. A major difficulty is that currently available tools for the analysis of massively parallel spike trains (N >10) for higher-order correlations typically require vast sample sizes. While multiple single-cell recordings become increasingly available, experimental approaches to investigate the role of higher-order correlations suffer from the limitations of available analysis techniques. We have recently presented a novel method for cumulant-based inference of higher-order correlations (CuBIC) that detects correlations of higher order even from relatively short data stretches of length T = 10–100 s. CuBIC employs the compound Poisson process (CPP) as a statistical model for the population spike counts, and assumes spike trains to be stationary in the analyzed data stretch. In the present study, we describe a non-stationary version of the CPP by decoupling the correlation structure from the spiking intensity of the population. This allows us to adapt CuBIC to time-varying firing rates. Numerical simulations reveal that the adaptation corrects for false positive inference of correlations in data with pure rate co-variation, while allowing for temporal variations of the firing rates has a surprisingly small effect on CuBICs sensitivity for correlations. PMID:20725510
Deontic Introduction: A Theory of Inference from Is to Ought
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Elqayam, Shira; Thompson, Valerie A.; Wilkinson, Meredith R.; Evans, Jonathan St. B. T.; Over, David E.
2015-01-01
Humans have a unique ability to generate novel norms. Faced with the knowledge that there are hungry children in Somalia, we easily and naturally infer that we ought to donate to famine relief charities. Although a contentious and lively issue in metaethics, such inference from "is" to "ought" has not been systematically…
Contemporary Quantitative Methods and "Slow" Causal Inference: Response to Palinkas
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Stone, Susan
2014-01-01
This response considers together simultaneously occurring discussions about causal inference in social work and allied health and social science disciplines. It places emphasis on scholarship that integrates the potential outcomes model with directed acyclic graphing techniques to extract core steps in causal inference. Although this scholarship…
Aging and Predicting Inferences: A Diffusion Model Analysis
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
McKoon, Gail; Ratcliff, Roger
2013-01-01
In the domain of discourse processing, it has been claimed that older adults (60-0-year-olds) are less likely to encode and remember some kinds of information from texts than young adults. The experiment described here shows that they do make a particular kind of inference to the same extent that college-age adults do. The inferences examined were…
Reasoning about Causal Relationships: Inferences on Causal Networks
Rottman, Benjamin Margolin; Hastie, Reid
2013-01-01
Over the last decade, a normative framework for making causal inferences, Bayesian Probabilistic Causal Networks, has come to dominate psychological studies of inference based on causal relationships. The following causal networks—[X→Y→Z, X←Y→Z, X→Y←Z]—supply answers for questions like, “Suppose both X and Y occur, what is the probability Z occurs?” or “Suppose you intervene and make Y occur, what is the probability Z occurs?” In this review, we provide a tutorial for how normatively to calculate these inferences. Then, we systematically detail the results of behavioral studies comparing human qualitative and quantitative judgments to the normative calculations for many network structures and for several types of inferences on those networks. Overall, when the normative calculations imply that an inference should increase, judgments usually go up; when calculations imply a decrease, judgments usually go down. However, two systematic deviations appear. First, people’s inferences violate the Markov assumption. For example, when inferring Z from the structure X→Y→Z, people think that X is relevant even when Y completely mediates the relationship between X and Z. Second, even when people’s inferences are directionally consistent with the normative calculations, they are often not as sensitive to the parameters and the structure of the network as they should be. We conclude with a discussion of productive directions for future research. PMID:23544658
Fostering Inference Generation with Emergent and Novice Readers
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Dougherty Stahl, Katherine A.
2014-01-01
Inference generation makes a strong, unique contribution to reading comprehension. Young children engage in many of the same inference generation processes as sophisticated readers. This article discusses instructional practices that can be used in prekindergarten through grade two to help children think beyond the words of the text. Suggestions…
The Effect of Gender on the Construction of Backward Inferences
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Cakir, Ozler
2008-01-01
The main objective in the present study is to examine the effect of gender on primary school students' construction of elaborative backward inferences during text processing. A total of 333 children, aged 10-11 years (n = 158 girls and 175 boys) participated in the study. Each participant completed a backward inference test. The results indicate…
Criterion Validity for Ellis' Irrational Beliefs: Dogmatism and Uncritical Inferences.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Tobacyk, Jerome; Milford, Gary
1982-01-01
Tested a sample of college students to determine the validity of Ellis' contention that irrational beliefs: (1) are held dogmatically and (2) interfere with logical inference making. Found greater endorsement of irrational beliefs on the Irrational Belief Scale associated with (1) greater dogmatism and (2) less critical inference making.…
The Strong-Inference Protocol: Not Just for Grant Proposals
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Hiebert, Sara M.
2007-01-01
The strong-inference protocol puts into action the important concepts in Platt's often-assigned, classic paper on the strong-inference method (10). Yet, perhaps because students are frequently performing experiments with known outcomes, the protocols they write as undergraduates are usually little more than step-by-step instructions for performing…
Developing Young Students' Informal Inference Skills in Data Analysis
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Paparistodemou, Efi; Meletiou-Mavrotheris, Maria
2008-01-01
This paper focuses on developing students' informal inference skills, reporting on how a group of third grade students formulated and evaluated data-based inferences using the dynamic statistics data-visualization environment TinkerPlots[TM] (Konold & Miller, 2005), software specifically designed to meet the learning needs of students in the early…
Strategic Processing and Predictive Inference Generation in L2 Reading
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Nahatame, Shingo
2014-01-01
Predictive inference is the anticipation of the likely consequences of events described in a text. This study investigated predictive inference generation during second language (L2) reading, with a focus on the effects of strategy instructions. In this experiment, Japanese university students read several short narrative passages designed to…
Another Look At The Canon of Plausible Inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Solana-Ortega, Alberto; Solana, Vicente
2005-11-01
Systematic study of plausible inference is very recent. Axiomatics have been traditionally limited to the development of uninterpreted pure calculi for comparing individual inferences, ignoring the need of formalisms to solve each of these inferences and leaving the interpretation and application of such calculi to ad hoc statistical criteria which are open to inconsistencies. Here we defend a different viewpoint, regarding plausible inference in a holistic manner. Specifically we consider that all tasks involved in it, including the formalization of languages in which to pose problems, the definitions and axiomatics leading to calculation rules and those for deriving inference procedures or assignment rules, ought to be based on common grounds. For this purpose a set of elementary requirements establishing desirable properties so fundamental any theory of scientific inference should satisfy is proposed under the name of plausible inference canon. Its logical status as an extramathematical foundation is investigated, together with the different roles it plays as constructive guideline, standard for contrasting frameworks or normative stipulation. We also highlight the novelties it introduces with respect to similar proposals by other authors. In particular we concentrate on those aspects of the canon related to the critical issue of adequately incorporating basic evidential knowledge to inference.
Inferencing Processes after Right Hemisphere Brain Damage: Maintenance of Inferences
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Blake, Margaret Lehman
2009-01-01
Purpose: This study was designed to replicate and extend a previous study of inferencing in which some adults with right hemisphere damage (RHD) generated but did not maintain predictive inferences over time (M. Lehman-Blake & C. Tompkins, 2001). Two hypotheses were tested: (a) inferences were deactivated, and (b) selection of previously generated…
A Probability Index of the Robustness of a Causal Inference
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Pan, Wei; Frank, Kenneth A.
2003-01-01
Causal inference is an important, controversial topic in the social sciences, where it is difficult to conduct experiments or measure and control for all confounding variables. To address this concern, the present study presents a probability index to assess the robustness of a causal inference to the impact of a confounding variable. The…
Causal inference with a quantitative exposure.
Zhang, Zhiwei; Zhou, Jie; Cao, Weihua; Zhang, Jun
2016-02-01
The current statistical literature on causal inference is mostly concerned with binary or categorical exposures, even though exposures of a quantitative nature are frequently encountered in epidemiologic research. In this article, we review the available methods for estimating the dose-response curve for a quantitative exposure, which include ordinary regression based on an outcome regression model, inverse propensity weighting and stratification based on a propensity function model, and an augmented inverse propensity weighting method that is doubly robust with respect to the two models. We note that an outcome regression model often imposes an implicit constraint on the dose-response curve, and propose a flexible modeling strategy that avoids constraining the dose-response curve. We also propose two new methods: a weighted regression method that combines ordinary regression with inverse propensity weighting and a stratified regression method that combines ordinary regression with stratification. The proposed methods are similar to the augmented inverse propensity weighting method in the sense of double robustness, but easier to implement and more generally applicable. The methods are illustrated with an obstetric example and compared in simulation studies. PMID:22729475
Relationship inference based on DNA mixtures.
Kaur, Navreet; Bouzga, Mariam M; Dørum, Guro; Egeland, Thore
2016-03-01
Today, there exists a number of tools for solving kinship cases. But what happens when information comes from a mixture? DNA mixtures are in general rarely seen in kinship cases, but in a case presented to the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, sample DNA was obtained after a rape case that resulted in an unwanted pregnancy and abortion. The only available DNA from the fetus came in form of a mixture with the mother, and it was of interest to find the father of the fetus. The mother (the victim), however, refused to give her reference data and so commonly used methods for paternity testing were no longer applicable. As this case illustrates, kinship cases involving mixtures and missing reference profiles do occur and make the use of existing methods rather inconvenient. We here present statistical methods that may handle general relationship inference based on DNA mixtures. The basic idea is that likelihood calculations for mixtures can be decomposed into a series of kinship problems. This formulation of the problem facilitates the use of kinship software. We present the freely available R package relMix which extends on the R version of Familias. Complicating factors like mutations, silent alleles, and θ-correction are then easily handled for quite general family relationships, and are included in the statistical methods we develop in this paper. The methods and their implementations are exemplified on the data from the rape case. PMID:26541994
Aesthetic quality inference for online fashion shopping
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Ming; Allebach, Jan
2014-03-01
On-line fashion communities in which participants post photos of personal fashion items for viewing and possible purchase by others are becoming increasingly popular. Generally, these photos are taken by individuals who have no training in photography with low-cost mobile phone cameras. It is desired that photos of the products have high aesthetic quality to improve the users' online shopping experience. In this work, we design features for aesthetic quality inference in the context of online fashion shopping. Psychophysical experiments are conducted to construct a database of the photos' aesthetic evaluation, specifically for photos from an online fashion shopping website. We then extract both generic low-level features and high-level image attributes to represent the aesthetic quality. Using a support vector machine framework, we train a predictor of the aesthetic quality rating based on the feature vector. Experimental results validate the efficacy of our approach. Metadata such as the product type are also used to further improve the result.
Robust sharp features infer from point clouds
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cao, Juming; Wushour, Slam; Yao, Xinhui; Li, NaiQian; Liang, Jin; Liang, Xinhe; Liu, Jianwei
2011-07-01
A novel sharp features extraction method is proposed in this paper. First, we calculate the displacement between the point and its local weighted average position and we label the point with salient this value as the candidate sharp feature points and we estimate the normal direction of those candidate sharp feature points by means of local PCA methods. Then we refine the normal estimated by inferring the orientation of the points near the candidate sharp feature region and bilateral filtering in the normal field of point clouds. At last we project the displacement between point and its local weighted average position along the direction of normal .We use value of this projection as the criteria of whether a point can be labeled as sharp feature. The extracted discrete sharp feature points are represented in the form of piecewised B-Spline lines. Experiment on both real scanner point clouds and synthesized point clouds show that our method of sharp features extraction are simple to be implemented and efficient for both space and time overhead as well as it robust to the noise ,outlier and un even sample witch are inherent in the point clouds.
Active Inference and Learning in the Cerebellum.
Friston, Karl; Herreros, Ivan
2016-09-01
This letter offers a computational account of Pavlovian conditioning in the cerebellum based on active inference and predictive coding. Using eyeblink conditioning as a canonical paradigm, we formulate a minimal generative model that can account for spontaneous blinking, startle responses, and (delay or trace) conditioning. We then establish the face validity of the model using simulated responses to unconditioned and conditioned stimuli to reproduce the sorts of behavior that are observed empirically. The scheme's anatomical validity is then addressed by associating variables in the predictive coding scheme with nuclei and neuronal populations to match the (extrinsic and intrinsic) connectivity of the cerebellar (eyeblink conditioning) system. Finally, we try to establish predictive validity by reproducing selective failures of delay conditioning, trace conditioning, and extinction using (simulated and reversible) focal lesions. Although rather metaphorical, the ensuing scheme can account for a remarkable range of anatomical and neurophysiological aspects of cerebellar circuitry-and the specificity of lesion-deficit mappings that have been established experimentally. From a computational perspective, this work shows how conditioning or learning can be formulated in terms of minimizing variational free energy (or maximizing Bayesian model evidence) using exactly the same principles that underlie predictive coding in perception. PMID:27391681
Attention as a Bayesian inference process
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chikkerur, Sharat; Serre, Thomas; Tan, Cheston; Poggio, Tomaso
2011-03-01
David Marr famously defined vision as "knowing what is where by seeing". In the framework described here, attention is the inference process that solves the visual recognition problem of what is where. The theory proposes a computational role for attention and leads to a model that performs well in recognition tasks and that predicts some of the main properties of attention at the level of psychophysics and physiology. We propose an algorithmic implementation a Bayesian network that can be mapped into the basic functional anatomy of attention involving the ventral stream and the dorsal stream. This description integrates bottom-up, feature-based as well as spatial (context based) attentional mechanisms. We show that the Bayesian model predicts well human eye fixations (considered as a proxy for shifts of attention) in natural scenes, and can improve accuracy in object recognition tasks involving cluttered real world images. In both cases, we found that the proposed model can predict human performance better than existing bottom-up and top-down computational models.
Noise Sensitivity in Force-inference Techniques
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mashburn, David N.; Hutson, M. Shane; Veldhuis, Jim H.; Brodland, G. Wayne
2014-03-01
Forward finite-element modeling of developmental processes has vastly improved our understanding of morphogenesis; however, determining the model parameters necessary to reproduce in vivo behaviors typically requires either computationally-intensive parameter searches or somewhat arbitrary user selections. To bypass these difficulties, we previously developed an inverse technique called Video Force Microscopy (VFM) that takes positional information from microscopy data and infers the forces necessary to reproduce the observed dynamics. Applying VFM to the output of a forward model produces exact results, but the over-determined solutions for any real data will generally have a nonzero residual error. Applying VFM to real images requires converting the image into a segmented mesh of polygonal cells, a process in which the image resolution creates inherent positional noise and the choice of mesh nodes influences the angles used in the force balance equations. We have investigated the robustness and quality of VFM solutions by analyzing sensitivity to both the unavoidable positional noise and addition/removal of mesh nodes. We have also evaluated the accuracy of both the residual and the matrix condition numbers as predictors of the true error (as measured against a gold standard).
The renormalization group via statistical inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bény, Cédric; Osborne, Tobias J.
2015-08-01
In physics, one attempts to infer the rules governing a system given only the results of imperfect measurements. Hence, microscopic theories may be effectively indistinguishable experimentally. We develop an operationally motivated procedure to identify the corresponding equivalence classes of states, and argue that the renormalization group (RG) arises from the inherent ambiguities associated with the classes: one encounters flow parameters as, e.g., a regulator, a scale, or a measure of precision, which specify representatives in a given equivalence class. This provides a unifying framework and reveals the role played by information in renormalization. We validate this idea by showing that it justifies the use of low-momenta n-point functions as statistically relevant observables around a Gaussian hypothesis. These results enable the calculation of distinguishability in quantum field theory. Our methods also provide a way to extend renormalization techniques to effective models which are not based on the usual quantum-field formalism, and elucidates the relationships between various type of RG.
Inference evaluation in a finite evidence domain
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ratway, Michael J.; Bellomo, Carryn
2000-08-01
Modeling of a target starts with a subject matter expert (SME) analysis of the available sensor(s) data. The SME then forms relationships between the data and known target attributes, called evidence, to support modeling of different types of targets or target activity. Speeds in the interval 10 to 30 knots and ranges less than 30 nautical miles are two samples of target evidence derived from sensor data. Evidence is then organized into sets to define the activities of a target and/or to distinguish different types of targets. For example, near an airport, target activities of takeoff, landing, and holding need to be evaluated in addition to target classification of civilian or commercial aircraft. This paper discusses a method for evaluation of the inferred activities over the finite evidence domain formed from the collection of models under consideration. The methodology accounts for repeated use of evidence in different models. For example, 'near an airport' is a required piece of evidence used repeatedly in the takeoff, landing, and holding models of a wide area sensor. Properties of the activity model evaluator methodology are discussed in terms of model construction and informal results are presented in a Boolean evidence type of problem domain.
Inferring human mobility using communication patterns
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Palchykov, Vasyl; Mitrović, Marija; Jo, Hang-Hyun; Saramäki, Jari; Pan, Raj Kumar
2014-08-01
Understanding the patterns of mobility of individuals is crucial for a number of reasons, from city planning to disaster management. There are two common ways of quantifying the amount of travel between locations: by direct observations that often involve privacy issues, e.g., tracking mobile phone locations, or by estimations from models. Typically, such models build on accurate knowledge of the population size at each location. However, when this information is not readily available, their applicability is rather limited. As mobile phones are ubiquitous, our aim is to investigate if mobility patterns can be inferred from aggregated mobile phone call data alone. Using data released by Orange for Ivory Coast, we show that human mobility is well predicted by a simple model based on the frequency of mobile phone calls between two locations and their geographical distance. We argue that the strength of the model comes from directly incorporating the social dimension of mobility. Furthermore, as only aggregated call data is required, the model helps to avoid potential privacy problems.
Atomic Inference from Weak Gravitational Lensing Data
Marshall, Phil; /KIPAC, Menlo Park
2005-12-14
We present a novel approach to reconstructing the projected mass distribution from the sparse and noisy weak gravitational lensing shear data. The reconstructions are regularized via the knowledge gained from numerical simulations of clusters, with trial mass distributions constructed from n NFW profile ellipsoidal components. The parameters of these ''atoms'' are distributed a priori as in the simulated clusters. Sampling the mass distributions from the atom parameter probability density function allows estimates of the properties of the mass distribution to be generated, with error bars. The appropriate number of atoms is inferred from the data itself via the Bayesian evidence, and is typically found to be small, reecting the quality of the data. Ensemble average mass maps are found to be robust to the details of the noise realization, and succeed in recovering the demonstration input mass distribution (from a realistic simulated cluster) over a wide range of scales. As an application of such a reliable mapping algorithm, we comment on the residuals of the reconstruction and the implications for predicting convergence and shear at specific points on the sky.
Probabilistic phylogenetic inference with insertions and deletions.
Rivas, Elena; Eddy, Sean R
2008-01-01
A fundamental task in sequence analysis is to calculate the probability of a multiple alignment given a phylogenetic tree relating the sequences and an evolutionary model describing how sequences change over time. However, the most widely used phylogenetic models only account for residue substitution events. We describe a probabilistic model of a multiple sequence alignment that accounts for insertion and deletion events in addition to substitutions, given a phylogenetic tree, using a rate matrix augmented by the gap character. Starting from a continuous Markov process, we construct a non-reversible generative (birth-death) evolutionary model for insertions and deletions. The model assumes that insertion and deletion events occur one residue at a time. We apply this model to phylogenetic tree inference by extending the program dnaml in phylip. Using standard benchmarking methods on simulated data and a new "concordance test" benchmark on real ribosomal RNA alignments, we show that the extended program dnamlepsilon improves accuracy relative to the usual approach of ignoring gaps, while retaining the computational efficiency of the Felsenstein peeling algorithm. PMID:18787703
Inference by replication in densely connected systems.
Neirotti, Juan P; Saad, David
2007-10-01
An efficient Bayesian inference method for problems that can be mapped onto dense graphs is presented. The approach is based on message passing where messages are averaged over a large number of replicated variable systems exposed to the same evidential nodes. An assumption about the symmetry of the solutions is required for carrying out the averages; here we extend the previous derivation based on a replica-symmetric- (RS)-like structure to include a more complex one-step replica-symmetry-breaking-like (1RSB-like) ansatz. To demonstrate the potential of the approach it is employed for studying critical properties of the Ising linear perceptron and for multiuser detection in code division multiple access (CDMA) under different noise models. Results obtained under the RS assumption in the noncritical regime give rise to a highly efficient signal detection algorithm in the context of CDMA; while in the critical regime one observes a first-order transition line that ends in a continuous phase transition point. Finite size effects are also observed. While the 1RSB ansatz is not required for the original problems, it was applied to the CDMA signal detection problem with a more complex noise model that exhibits RSB behavior, resulting in an improvement in performance. PMID:17995074
Bayesian Inference of CMB Gravitational Lensing
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anderes, Ethan; Wandelt, Benjamin D.; Lavaux, Guilhem
2015-08-01
The Planck satellite, along with several ground-based telescopes, has mapped the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at sufficient resolution and signal-to-noise so as to allow a detection of the subtle distortions due to the gravitational influence of the intervening matter distribution. A natural modeling approach is to write a Bayesian hierarchical model for the lensed CMB in terms of the unlensed CMB and the lensing potential. So far there has been no feasible algorithm for inferring the posterior distribution of the lensing potential from the lensed CMB map. We propose a solution that allows efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling from the joint posterior of the lensing potential and the unlensed CMB map using the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo technique. The main conceptual step in the solution is a re-parameterization of CMB lensing in terms of the lensed CMB and the “inverse lensing” potential. We demonstrate a fast implementation on simulated data, including noise and a sky cut, that uses a further acceleration based on a very mild approximation of the inverse lensing potential. We find that the resulting Markov Chain has short correlation lengths and excellent convergence properties, making it promising for applications to high-resolution CMB data sets in the future.
Virtual reality and consciousness inference in dreaming.
Hobson, J Allan; Hong, Charles C-H; Friston, Karl J
2014-01-01
This article explores the notion that the brain is genetically endowed with an innate virtual reality generator that - through experience-dependent plasticity - becomes a generative or predictive model of the world. This model, which is most clearly revealed in rapid eye movement (REM) sleep dreaming, may provide the theater for conscious experience. Functional neuroimaging evidence for brain activations that are time-locked to rapid eye movements (REMs) endorses the view that waking consciousness emerges from REM sleep - and dreaming lays the foundations for waking perception. In this view, the brain is equipped with a virtual model of the world that generates predictions of its sensations. This model is continually updated and entrained by sensory prediction errors in wakefulness to ensure veridical perception, but not in dreaming. In contrast, dreaming plays an essential role in maintaining and enhancing the capacity to model the world by minimizing model complexity and thereby maximizing both statistical and thermodynamic efficiency. This perspective suggests that consciousness corresponds to the embodied process of inference, realized through the generation of virtual realities (in both sleep and wakefulness). In short, our premise or hypothesis is that the waking brain engages with the world to predict the causes of sensations, while in sleep the brain's generative model is actively refined so that it generates more efficient predictions during waking. We review the evidence in support of this hypothesis - evidence that grounds consciousness in biophysical computations whose neuronal and neurochemical infrastructure has been disclosed by sleep research. PMID:25346710
Functional network inference of the suprachiasmatic nucleus.
Abel, John H; Meeker, Kirsten; Granados-Fuentes, Daniel; St John, Peter C; Wang, Thomas J; Bales, Benjamin B; Doyle, Francis J; Herzog, Erik D; Petzold, Linda R
2016-04-19
In the mammalian suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN), noisy cellular oscillators communicate within a neuronal network to generate precise system-wide circadian rhythms. Although the intracellular genetic oscillator and intercellular biochemical coupling mechanisms have been examined previously, the network topology driving synchronization of the SCN has not been elucidated. This network has been particularly challenging to probe, due to its oscillatory components and slow coupling timescale. In this work, we investigated the SCN network at a single-cell resolution through a chemically induced desynchronization. We then inferred functional connections in the SCN by applying the maximal information coefficient statistic to bioluminescence reporter data from individual neurons while they resynchronized their circadian cycling. Our results demonstrate that the functional network of circadian cells associated with resynchronization has small-world characteristics, with a node degree distribution that is exponential. We show that hubs of this small-world network are preferentially located in the central SCN, with sparsely connected shells surrounding these cores. Finally, we used two computational models of circadian neurons to validate our predictions of network structure. PMID:27044085
Inference by replication in densely connected systems
Neirotti, Juan P.; Saad, David
2007-10-15
An efficient Bayesian inference method for problems that can be mapped onto dense graphs is presented. The approach is based on message passing where messages are averaged over a large number of replicated variable systems exposed to the same evidential nodes. An assumption about the symmetry of the solutions is required for carrying out the averages; here we extend the previous derivation based on a replica-symmetric- (RS)-like structure to include a more complex one-step replica-symmetry-breaking-like (1RSB-like) ansatz. To demonstrate the potential of the approach it is employed for studying critical properties of the Ising linear perceptron and for multiuser detection in code division multiple access (CDMA) under different noise models. Results obtained under the RS assumption in the noncritical regime give rise to a highly efficient signal detection algorithm in the context of CDMA; while in the critical regime one observes a first-order transition line that ends in a continuous phase transition point. Finite size effects are also observed. While the 1RSB ansatz is not required for the original problems, it was applied to the CDMA signal detection problem with a more complex noise model that exhibits RSB behavior, resulting in an improvement in performance.
Virtual reality and consciousness inference in dreaming
Hobson, J. Allan; Hong, Charles C.-H.; Friston, Karl J.
2014-01-01
This article explores the notion that the brain is genetically endowed with an innate virtual reality generator that – through experience-dependent plasticity – becomes a generative or predictive model of the world. This model, which is most clearly revealed in rapid eye movement (REM) sleep dreaming, may provide the theater for conscious experience. Functional neuroimaging evidence for brain activations that are time-locked to rapid eye movements (REMs) endorses the view that waking consciousness emerges from REM sleep – and dreaming lays the foundations for waking perception. In this view, the brain is equipped with a virtual model of the world that generates predictions of its sensations. This model is continually updated and entrained by sensory prediction errors in wakefulness to ensure veridical perception, but not in dreaming. In contrast, dreaming plays an essential role in maintaining and enhancing the capacity to model the world by minimizing model complexity and thereby maximizing both statistical and thermodynamic efficiency. This perspective suggests that consciousness corresponds to the embodied process of inference, realized through the generation of virtual realities (in both sleep and wakefulness). In short, our premise or hypothesis is that the waking brain engages with the world to predict the causes of sensations, while in sleep the brain’s generative model is actively refined so that it generates more efficient predictions during waking. We review the evidence in support of this hypothesis – evidence that grounds consciousness in biophysical computations whose neuronal and neurochemical infrastructure has been disclosed by sleep research. PMID:25346710
Quantum-Like Representation of Non-Bayesian Inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Asano, M.; Basieva, I.; Khrennikov, A.; Ohya, M.; Tanaka, Y.
2013-01-01
This research is related to the problem of "irrational decision making or inference" that have been discussed in cognitive psychology. There are some experimental studies, and these statistical data cannot be described by classical probability theory. The process of decision making generating these data cannot be reduced to the classical Bayesian inference. For this problem, a number of quantum-like coginitive models of decision making was proposed. Our previous work represented in a natural way the classical Bayesian inference in the frame work of quantum mechanics. By using this representation, in this paper, we try to discuss the non-Bayesian (irrational) inference that is biased by effects like the quantum interference. Further, we describe "psychological factor" disturbing "rationality" as an "environment" correlating with the "main system" of usual Bayesian inference.
Identifiability and inference of pathway motifs by epistasis analysis.
Phenix, Hilary; Perkins, Theodore; Kærn, Mads
2013-06-01
The accuracy of genetic network inference is limited by the assumptions used to determine if one hypothetical model is better than another in explaining experimental observations. Most previous work on epistasis analysis-in which one attempts to infer pathway relationships by determining equivalences among traits following mutations-has been based on Boolean or linear models. Here, we delineate the ultimate limits of epistasis-based inference by systematically surveying all two-gene network motifs and use symbolic algebra with arbitrary regulation functions to examine trait equivalences. Our analysis divides the motifs into equivalence classes, where different genetic perturbations result in indistinguishable experimental outcomes. We demonstrate that this partitioning can reveal important information about network architecture, and show, using simulated data, that it greatly improves the accuracy of genetic network inference methods. Because of the minimal assumptions involved, equivalence partitioning has broad applicability for gene network inference. PMID:23822501
Wisdom of crowds for robust gene network inference
Marbach, Daniel; Costello, James C.; Küffner, Robert; Vega, Nicci; Prill, Robert J.; Camacho, Diogo M.; Allison, Kyle R.; Kellis, Manolis; Collins, James J.; Stolovitzky, Gustavo
2012-01-01
Reconstructing gene regulatory networks from high-throughput data is a long-standing problem. Through the DREAM project (Dialogue on Reverse Engineering Assessment and Methods), we performed a comprehensive blind assessment of over thirty network inference methods on Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and in silico microarray data. We characterize performance, data requirements, and inherent biases of different inference approaches offering guidelines for both algorithm application and development. We observe that no single inference method performs optimally across all datasets. In contrast, integration of predictions from multiple inference methods shows robust and high performance across diverse datasets. Thereby, we construct high-confidence networks for E. coli and S. aureus, each comprising ~1700 transcriptional interactions at an estimated precision of 50%. We experimentally test 53 novel interactions in E. coli, of which 23 were supported (43%). Our results establish community-based methods as a powerful and robust tool for the inference of transcriptional gene regulatory networks. PMID:22796662
Identifiability and inference of pathway motifs by epistasis analysis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Phenix, Hilary; Perkins, Theodore; Kærn, Mads
2013-06-01
The accuracy of genetic network inference is limited by the assumptions used to determine if one hypothetical model is better than another in explaining experimental observations. Most previous work on epistasis analysis—in which one attempts to infer pathway relationships by determining equivalences among traits following mutations—has been based on Boolean or linear models. Here, we delineate the ultimate limits of epistasis-based inference by systematically surveying all two-gene network motifs and use symbolic algebra with arbitrary regulation functions to examine trait equivalences. Our analysis divides the motifs into equivalence classes, where different genetic perturbations result in indistinguishable experimental outcomes. We demonstrate that this partitioning can reveal important information about network architecture, and show, using simulated data, that it greatly improves the accuracy of genetic network inference methods. Because of the minimal assumptions involved, equivalence partitioning has broad applicability for gene network inference.
Inferring climate variability from skewed proxy records
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Emile-Geay, J.; Tingley, M.
2013-12-01
Many paleoclimate analyses assume a linear relationship between the proxy and the target climate variable, and that both the climate quantity and the errors follow normal distributions. An ever-increasing number of proxy records, however, are better modeled using distributions that are heavy-tailed, skewed, or otherwise non-normal, on account of the proxies reflecting non-normally distributed climate variables, or having non-linear relationships with a normally distributed climate variable. The analysis of such proxies requires a different set of tools, and this work serves as a cautionary tale on the danger of making conclusions about the underlying climate from applications of classic statistical procedures to heavily skewed proxy records. Inspired by runoff proxies, we consider an idealized proxy characterized by a nonlinear, thresholded relationship with climate, and describe three approaches to using such a record to infer past climate: (i) applying standard methods commonly used in the paleoclimate literature, without considering the non-linearities inherent to the proxy record; (ii) applying a power transform prior to using these standard methods; (iii) constructing a Bayesian model to invert the mechanistic relationship between the climate and the proxy. We find that neglecting the skewness in the proxy leads to erroneous conclusions and often exaggerates changes in climate variability between different time intervals. In contrast, an explicit treatment of the skewness, using either power transforms or a Bayesian inversion of the mechanistic model for the proxy, yields significantly better estimates of past climate variations. We apply these insights in two paleoclimate settings: (1) a classical sedimentary record from Laguna Pallcacocha, Ecuador (Moy et al., 2002). Our results agree with the qualitative aspects of previous analyses of this record, but quantitative departures are evident and hold implications for how such records are interpreted, and
Vertically Integrated Seismological Analysis II : Inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arora, N. S.; Russell, S.; Sudderth, E.
2009-12-01
Methods for automatically associating detected waveform features with hypothesized seismic events, and localizing those events, are a critical component of efforts to verify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). As outlined in our companion abstract, we have developed a hierarchical model which views detection, association, and localization as an integrated probabilistic inference problem. In this abstract, we provide more details on the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods used to solve this inference task. MCMC generates samples from a posterior distribution π(x) over possible worlds x by defining a Markov chain whose states are the worlds x, and whose stationary distribution is π(x). In the Metropolis-Hastings (M-H) method, transitions in the Markov chain are constructed in two steps. First, given the current state x, a candidate next state x‧ is generated from a proposal distribution q(x‧ | x), which may be (more or less) arbitrary. Second, the transition to x‧ is not automatic, but occurs with an acceptance probability—α(x‧ | x) = min(1, π(x‧)q(x | x‧)/π(x)q(x‧ | x)). The seismic event model outlined in our companion abstract is quite similar to those used in multitarget tracking, for which MCMC has proved very effective. In this model, each world x is defined by a collection of events, a list of properties characterizing those events (times, locations, magnitudes, and types), and the association of each event to a set of observed detections. The target distribution π(x) = P(x | y), the posterior distribution over worlds x given the observed waveform data y at all stations. Proposal distributions then implement several types of moves between worlds. For example, birth moves create new events; death moves delete existing events; split moves partition the detections for an event into two new events; merge moves combine event pairs; swap moves modify the properties and assocations for pairs of events. Importantly, the rules for
RulNet: A Web-Oriented Platform for Regulatory Network Inference, Application to Wheat –Omics Data
Vincent, Jonathan; Martre, Pierre; Gouriou, Benjamin; Ravel, Catherine; Dai, Zhanwu; Petit, Jean-Marc; Pailloux, Marie
2015-01-01
With the increasing amount of –omics data available, a particular effort has to be made to provide suitable analysis tools. A major challenge is that of unraveling the molecular regulatory networks from massive and heterogeneous datasets. Here we describe RulNet, a web-oriented platform dedicated to the inference and analysis of regulatory networks from qualitative and quantitative –omics data by means of rule discovery. Queries for rule discovery can be written in an extended form of the RQL query language, which has a syntax similar to SQL. RulNet also offers users interactive features that progressively adjust and refine the inferred networks. In this paper, we present a functional characterization of RulNet and compare inferred networks with correlation-based approaches. The performance of RulNet has been evaluated using the three benchmark datasets used for the transcriptional network inference challenge DREAM5. Overall, RulNet performed as well as the best methods that participated in this challenge and it was shown to behave more consistently when compared across the three datasets. Finally, we assessed the suitability of RulNet to analyze experimental –omics data and to infer regulatory networks involved in the response to nitrogen and sulfur supply in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) grains. The results highlight putative actors governing the response to nitrogen and sulfur supply in wheat grains. We evaluate the main characteristics and features of RulNet as an all-in-one solution for RN inference, visualization and editing. Using simple yet powerful RulNet queries allowed RNs involved in the adaptation of wheat grain to N and S supply to be discovered. We demonstrate the effectiveness and suitability of RulNet as a platform for the analysis of RNs involving different types of –omics data. The results are promising since they are consistent with what was previously established by the scientific community. PMID:25993562
Inferring Correlation Networks from Genomic Survey Data
Friedman, Jonathan; Alm, Eric J.
2012-01-01
High-throughput sequencing based techniques, such as 16S rRNA gene profiling, have the potential to elucidate the complex inner workings of natural microbial communities - be they from the world's oceans or the human gut. A key step in exploring such data is the identification of dependencies between members of these communities, which is commonly achieved by correlation analysis. However, it has been known since the days of Karl Pearson that the analysis of the type of data generated by such techniques (referred to as compositional data) can produce unreliable results since the observed data take the form of relative fractions of genes or species, rather than their absolute abundances. Using simulated and real data from the Human Microbiome Project, we show that such compositional effects can be widespread and severe: in some real data sets many of the correlations among taxa can be artifactual, and true correlations may even appear with opposite sign. Additionally, we show that community diversity is the key factor that modulates the acuteness of such compositional effects, and develop a new approach, called SparCC (available at https://bitbucket.org/yonatanf/sparcc), which is capable of estimating correlation values from compositional data. To illustrate a potential application of SparCC, we infer a rich ecological network connecting hundreds of interacting species across 18 sites on the human body. Using the SparCC network as a reference, we estimated that the standard approach yields 3 spurious species-species interactions for each true interaction and misses 60% of the true interactions in the human microbiome data, and, as predicted, most of the erroneous links are found in the samples with the lowest diversity. PMID:23028285
Inferring correlation networks from genomic survey data.
Friedman, Jonathan; Alm, Eric J
2012-01-01
High-throughput sequencing based techniques, such as 16S rRNA gene profiling, have the potential to elucidate the complex inner workings of natural microbial communities - be they from the world's oceans or the human gut. A key step in exploring such data is the identification of dependencies between members of these communities, which is commonly achieved by correlation analysis. However, it has been known since the days of Karl Pearson that the analysis of the type of data generated by such techniques (referred to as compositional data) can produce unreliable results since the observed data take the form of relative fractions of genes or species, rather than their absolute abundances. Using simulated and real data from the Human Microbiome Project, we show that such compositional effects can be widespread and severe: in some real data sets many of the correlations among taxa can be artifactual, and true correlations may even appear with opposite sign. Additionally, we show that community diversity is the key factor that modulates the acuteness of such compositional effects, and develop a new approach, called SparCC (available at https://bitbucket.org/yonatanf/sparcc), which is capable of estimating correlation values from compositional data. To illustrate a potential application of SparCC, we infer a rich ecological network connecting hundreds of interacting species across 18 sites on the human body. Using the SparCC network as a reference, we estimated that the standard approach yields 3 spurious species-species interactions for each true interaction and misses 60% of the true interactions in the human microbiome data, and, as predicted, most of the erroneous links are found in the samples with the lowest diversity. PMID:23028285
Inferring mental states from neuroimaging data: From reverse inference to large-scale decoding
Poldrack, Russell A.
2011-01-01
A common goal of neuroimaging research is to use imaging data to identify the mental processes that are engaged when a subject performs a mental task. The use of reasoning from activation to mental functions, known as “reverse inference”, has been previously criticized on the basis that it does not take into account how selectively the area is activated by the mental process in question. In this Perspective, I outline the critique of informal reverse inference, and describe a number of new developments that provide the ability to more formally test the predictive power of neuroimaging data. PMID:22153367
Organizational Adaptation and Higher Education.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Cameron, Kim S.
1984-01-01
Organizational adaptation and types of adaptation needed in academe in the future are reviewed and major conceptual approaches to organizational adaptation are presented. The probable environment that institutions will face in the future that will require adaptation is discussed. (MLW)
CAUSAL INFERENCE IN BIOLOGY NETWORKS WITH INTEGRATED BELIEF PROPAGATION
CHANG, RUI; KARR, JONATHAN R; SCHADT, ERIC E
2014-01-01
Inferring causal relationships among molecular and higher order phenotypes is a critical step in elucidating the complexity of living systems. Here we propose a novel method for inferring causality that is no longer constrained by the conditional dependency arguments that limit the ability of statistical causal inference methods to resolve causal relationships within sets of graphical models that are Markov equivalent. Our method utilizes Bayesian belief propagation to infer the responses of perturbation events on molecular traits given a hypothesized graph structure. A distance measure between the inferred response distribution and the observed data is defined to assess the ‘fitness’ of the hypothesized causal relationships. To test our algorithm, we infer causal relationships within equivalence classes of gene networks in which the form of the functional interactions that are possible are assumed to be nonlinear, given synthetic microarray and RNA sequencing data. We also apply our method to infer causality in real metabolic network with v-structure and feedback loop. We show that our method can recapitulate the causal structure and recover the feedback loop only from steady-state data which conventional method cannot. PMID:25592596
A quantum probability account of order effects in inference.
Trueblood, Jennifer S; Busemeyer, Jerome R
2011-01-01
Order of information plays a crucial role in the process of updating beliefs across time. In fact, the presence of order effects makes a classical or Bayesian approach to inference difficult. As a result, the existing models of inference, such as the belief-adjustment model, merely provide an ad hoc explanation for these effects. We postulate a quantum inference model for order effects based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory. The quantum inference model explains order effects by transforming a state vector with different sequences of operators for different orderings of information. We demonstrate this process by fitting the quantum model to data collected in a medical diagnostic task and a jury decision-making task. To further test the quantum inference model, a new jury decision-making experiment is developed. Using the results of this experiment, we compare the quantum inference model with two versions of the belief-adjustment model, the adding model and the averaging model. We show that both the quantum model and the adding model provide good fits to the data. To distinguish the quantum model from the adding model, we develop a new experiment involving extreme evidence. The results from this new experiment suggest that the adding model faces limitations when accounting for tasks involving extreme evidence, whereas the quantum inference model does not. Ultimately, we argue that the quantum model provides a more coherent account for order effects that was not possible before. PMID:21951058
The boundaries of language and thought in deductive inference
Monti, Martin M.; Parsons, Lawrence M.; Osherson, Daniel N.
2009-01-01
Is human thought fully embedded in language, or do some forms of thought operate independently? To directly address this issue, we focus on inference-making, a central feature of human cognition. In a 3T fMRI study we compare logical inferences relying on sentential connectives (e.g., not, or, if … then) to linguistic inferences based on syntactic transformation of sentences involving ditransitive verbs (e.g., give, say, take). When contrasted with matched grammaticality judgments, logic inference alone recruited “core” regions of deduction [Brodmann area (BA) 10p and 8m], whereas linguistic inference alone recruited perisylvian regions of linguistic competence, among others (BA 21, 22, 37, 39, 44, and 45 and caudate). In addition, the two inferences commonly recruited a set of general “support” areas in frontoparietal cortex (BA 6, 7, 8, 40, and 47). The results indicate that logical inference is not embedded in natural language and confirm the relative modularity of linguistic processes. PMID:19617569
Brain imaging, forward inference, and theories of reasoning.
Heit, Evan
2014-01-01
This review focuses on the issue of how neuroimaging studies address theoretical accounts of reasoning, through the lens of the method of forward inference (Henson, 2005, 2006). After theories of deductive and inductive reasoning are briefly presented, the method of forward inference for distinguishing between psychological theories based on brain imaging evidence is critically reviewed. Brain imaging studies of reasoning, comparing deductive and inductive arguments, comparing meaningful versus non-meaningful material, investigating hemispheric localization, and comparing conditional and relational arguments, are assessed in light of the method of forward inference. Finally, conclusions are drawn with regard to future research opportunities. PMID:25620926
Inferences of clinical diagnostic reasoning and diagnostic error.
Lawson, Anton E; Daniel, Erno S
2011-06-01
This paper discusses clinical diagnostic reasoning in terms of a pattern of If/then/Therefore reasoning driven by data gathering and the inference of abduction, as defined in the present paper, and the inferences of retroduction, deduction, and induction as defined by philosopher Charles Sanders Peirce. The complex inferential reasoning driving clinical diagnosis often takes place subconsciously and so rapidly that its nature remains largely hidden from the diagnostician. Nevertheless, we propose that raising such reasoning to the conscious level reveals not its basic pattern and basic inferences, it also reveals where errors can and do occur and how such errors might be reduced or even eliminated. PMID:20093196
Liongue, Clifford; John, Liza B; Ward, Alister
2011-01-01
Adaptive immunity, involving distinctive antibody- and cell-mediated responses to specific antigens based on "memory" of previous exposure, is a hallmark of higher vertebrates. It has been argued that adaptive immunity arose rapidly, as articulated in the "big bang theory" surrounding its origins, which stresses the importance of coincident whole-genome duplications. Through a close examination of the key molecules and molecular processes underpinning adaptive immunity, this review suggests a less-extreme model, in which adaptive immunity emerged as part of longer evolutionary journey. Clearly, whole-genome duplications provided additional raw genetic materials that were vital to the emergence of adaptive immunity, but a variety of other genetic events were also required to generate some of the key molecules, whereas others were preexisting and simply co-opted into adaptive immunity. PMID:21395512
Parallel Anisotropic Tetrahedral Adaptation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Park, Michael A.; Darmofal, David L.
2008-01-01
An adaptive method that robustly produces high aspect ratio tetrahedra to a general 3D metric specification without introducing hybrid semi-structured regions is presented. The elemental operators and higher-level logic is described with their respective domain-decomposed parallelizations. An anisotropic tetrahedral grid adaptation scheme is demonstrated for 1000-1 stretching for a simple cube geometry. This form of adaptation is applicable to more complex domain boundaries via a cut-cell approach as demonstrated by a parallel 3D supersonic simulation of a complex fighter aircraft. To avoid the assumptions and approximations required to form a metric to specify adaptation, an approach is introduced that directly evaluates interpolation error. The grid is adapted to reduce and equidistribute this interpolation error calculation without the use of an intervening anisotropic metric. Direct interpolation error adaptation is illustrated for 1D and 3D domains.
Gravitational adaptation of animals
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Smith, A. H.; Burton, R. R.
1982-01-01
The effect of gravitational adaptation is studied in a group of five Leghorn cocks which had become physiologically adapted to 2 G after 162 days of centrifugation. After this period of adaptation, they are periodically exposed to a 2 G field, accompanied by five previously unexposed hatch-mates, and the degree of retained acceleration adaptation is estimated from the decrease in lymphocyte frequency after 24 hr at 2 G. Results show that the previously adapted birds exhibit an 84% greater lymphopenia than the unexposed birds, and that the lymphocyte frequency does not decrease to a level below that found at the end of 162 days at 2 G. In addition, the capacity for adaptation to chronic acceleration is found to be highly heritable. An acceleration tolerant strain of birds shows lesser mortality during chronic acceleration, particularly in intermediate fields, although the result of acceleration selection is largely quantitative (a greater number of survivors) rather than qualitative (behavioral or physiological changes).
Technology transfer for adaptation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Biagini, Bonizella; Kuhl, Laura; Gallagher, Kelly Sims; Ortiz, Claudia
2014-09-01
Technology alone will not be able to solve adaptation challenges, but it is likely to play an important role. As a result of the role of technology in adaptation and the importance of international collaboration for climate change, technology transfer for adaptation is a critical but understudied issue. Through an analysis of Global Environment Facility-managed adaptation projects, we find there is significantly more technology transfer occurring in adaptation projects than might be expected given the pessimistic rhetoric surrounding technology transfer for adaptation. Most projects focused on demonstration and early deployment/niche formation for existing technologies rather than earlier stages of innovation, which is understandable considering the pilot nature of the projects. Key challenges for the transfer process, including technology selection and appropriateness under climate change, markets and access to technology, and diffusion strategies are discussed in more detail.
Gardner, Andy
2009-01-01
The problem of adaptation is to explain the apparent design of organisms. Darwin solved this problem with the theory of natural selection. However, population geneticists, whose responsibility it is to formalize evolutionary theory, have long neglected the link between natural selection and organismal design. Here, I review the major historical developments in theory of organismal adaptation, clarifying what adaptation is and what it is not, and I point out future avenues for research. PMID:19793739
Phase Adaptation and Correction by Adaptive Optics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tiziani, Hans J.
2010-04-01
Adaptive optical elements and systems for imaging or laser beam propagation are used for some time in particular in astronomy, where the image quality is degraded by atmospheric turbulence. In astronomical telescopes a deformable mirror is frequently used to compensate wavefront-errors due to deformations of the large mirror, vibrations as well as turbulence and hence to increase the image quality. In the last few years interesting elements like Spatial Light Modulators, SLM's, such as photorefractive crystals, liquid crystals and micro mirrors and membrane mirrors were introduced. The development of liquid crystals and micro mirrors was driven by data projectors as consumer products. They contain typically a matrix of individually addressable pixels of liquid crystals and flip mirrors respectively or more recently piston mirrors for special applications. Pixel sizes are in the order of a few microns and therefore also appropriate as active diffractive elements in digital holography or miniature masks. Although liquid crystals are mainly optimized for intensity modulation; they can be used for phase modulation. Adaptive optics is a technology for beam shaping and wavefront adaptation. The application of spatial light modulators for wavefront adaptation and correction and defect analysis as well as sensing will be discussed. Dynamic digital holograms are generated with liquid crystal devices (LCD) and used for wavefront correction as well as for beam shaping and phase manipulation, for instance. Furthermore, adaptive optics is very useful to extend the measuring range of wavefront sensors and for the wavefront adaptation in order to measure and compare the shape of high precision aspherical surfaces.
Evans, G.W. Jacobs, S.V.; Frager, N.B.
1982-10-01
This study examined the health effects of human adaptation to photochemical smog. A group of recent arrivals to the Los Angeles air basin were compared to long-term residents of the basin. Evidence for adaptation included greater irritation and respiratory problems among the recent arrivals and desensitization among the long-term residents in their judgments of the severity of the smog problem to their health. There was no evidence for biochemical adaptation as measured by hemoglobin response to oxidant challenge. The results were discussed in terms of psychological adaption to chronic environmental stressors.
Adaptive parallel logic networks
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Martinez, Tony R.; Vidal, Jacques J.
1988-01-01
Adaptive, self-organizing concurrent systems (ASOCS) that combine self-organization with massive parallelism for such applications as adaptive logic devices, robotics, process control, and system malfunction management, are presently discussed. In ASOCS, an adaptive network composed of many simple computing elements operating in combinational and asynchronous fashion is used and problems are specified by presenting if-then rules to the system in the form of Boolean conjunctions. During data processing, which is a different operational phase from adaptation, the network acts as a parallel hardware circuit.
Quantifying the Adaptive Cycle
Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Gunderson, Lance H.; Hjerne, Olle; Winder, Monika
2015-01-01
The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation) in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term (1994–2011) data and multivariate analysis of community structure to assess key components of the adaptive cycle. Specifically, we tested predictions about: reorganisation: spring and summer blooms comprise distinct community states; conservatism: community trajectories during individual adaptive cycles are conservative; and adaptation: phytoplankton species during blooms change in the long term. All predictions were supported by our analyses. Results suggest that traditional ecological paradigms such as phytoplankton successional models have potential for moving the adaptive cycle from a metaphor to a framework that can improve our understanding how complex systems organize and reorganize following collapse. Quantifying reorganization, conservatism and adaptation provides opportunities to cope with the intricacies and uncertainties associated with fast ecological change, driven by shifting system controls. Ultimately, combining traditional ecological paradigms with heuristics of complex system dynamics using quantitative approaches may help refine ecological theory and improve our understanding of the resilience of ecosystems. PMID:26716453
Decentralized adaptive control
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Oh, B. J.; Jamshidi, M.; Seraji, H.
1988-01-01
A decentralized adaptive control is proposed to stabilize and track the nonlinear, interconnected subsystems with unknown parameters. The adaptation of the controller gain is derived by using model reference adaptive control theory based on Lyapunov's direct method. The adaptive gains consist of sigma, proportional, and integral combination of the measured and reference values of the corresponding subsystem. The proposed control is applied to the joint control of a two-link robot manipulator, and the performance in computer simulation corresponds with what is expected in theoretical development.
Targeted estimation of nuisance parameters to obtain valid statistical inference.
van der Laan, Mark J
2014-01-01
In order to obtain concrete results, we focus on estimation of the treatment specific mean, controlling for all measured baseline covariates, based on observing independent and identically distributed copies of a random variable consisting of baseline covariates, a subsequently assigned binary treatment, and a final outcome. The statistical model only assumes possible restrictions on the conditional distribution of treatment, given the covariates, the so-called propensity score. Estimators of the treatment specific mean involve estimation of the propensity score and/or estimation of the conditional mean of the outcome, given the treatment and covariates. In order to make these estimators asymptotically unbiased at any data distribution in the statistical model, it is essential to use data-adaptive estimators of these nuisance parameters such as ensemble learning, and specifically super-learning. Because such estimators involve optimal trade-off of bias and variance w.r.t. the infinite dimensional nuisance parameter itself, they result in a sub-optimal bias/variance trade-off for the resulting real-valued estimator of the estimand. We demonstrate that additional targeting of the estimators of these nuisance parameters guarantees that this bias for the estimand is second order and thereby allows us to prove theorems that establish asymptotic linearity of the estimator of the treatment specific mean under regularity conditions. These insights result in novel targeted minimum loss-based estimators (TMLEs) that use ensemble learning with additional targeted bias reduction to construct estimators of the nuisance parameters. In particular, we construct collaborative TMLEs (C-TMLEs) with known influence curve allowing for statistical inference, even though these C-TMLEs involve variable selection for the propensity score based on a criterion that measures how effective the resulting fit of the propensity score is in removing bias for the estimand. As a particular special
Interplanetary magnetic sector polarity inferred from polar geomagnetic field observations
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Eriss-Christensen, E.; Lassen, K.; Wilcox, J. M.; Gonzalez, W.; Colburn, D. S.
1971-01-01
With the use of a prediction technique it is shown that the polarity (toward or away from the sun) of the interplanetary magnetic field can be reliably inferred from observations of the polar geomagnetic field.
Bayesian inferences about the self (and others): A review
Moutoussis, Michael; Fearon, Pasco; El-Deredy, Wael; Dolan, Raymond J.; Friston, Karl J.
2014-01-01
Viewing the brain as an organ of approximate Bayesian inference can help us understand how it represents the self. We suggest that inferred representations of the self have a normative function: to predict and optimise the likely outcomes of social interactions. Technically, we cast this predict-and-optimise as maximising the chance of favourable outcomes through active inference. Here the utility of outcomes can be conceptualised as prior beliefs about final states. Actions based on interpersonal representations can therefore be understood as minimising surprise – under the prior belief that one will end up in states with high utility. Interpersonal representations thus serve to render interactions more predictable, while the affective valence of interpersonal inference renders self-perception evaluative. Distortions of self-representation contribute to major psychiatric disorders such as depression, personality disorder and paranoia. The approach we review may therefore operationalise the study of interpersonal representations in pathological states. PMID:24583455
Behavior identification as a mediator of dispositional inference.
Trope, Y; Cohen, O; Alfieri, T
1991-12-01
According to Trope's (1986) 2-stage model, the use of situational information ("A was teased") to identify behavior ("A reacted aggressively") may result in subsequent dispositional inferences ("A is an aggressive person") that seem insensitive to situational information. Two determinants of the situational biasing effect on behavior identification were varied, namely, behavior ambiguity and order of situational and behavioral information. It was found that when behavior was ambiguous and preceded by situational information, the latter affected behavior identification but not dispositional inference; in contrast, when behavior was unambiguous or when it was followed by situational information, the latter affected dispositional inference but not behavior identification. Thus, the same conditions that allowed situational information to bias behavior identification also nullified the effect of situational information on dispositional inference. PMID:1774626
Evolution of prokaryote and eukaryote lines inferred from sequence evidence
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hunt, L. T.; George, D. G.; Yeh, L.-S.; Dayhoff, M. O.
1984-01-01
This paper describes the evolution of prokaryotes and early eukaryotes, including their symbiotic relationships, as inferred from phylogenetic trees of bacterial ferredoxin, 5S ribosomal RNA, ribulose-1,5-biphosphate carboxylase large chain, and mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase polypeptide II.
Active Inference for Binary Symmetric Hidden Markov Models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Galstyan, Aram
2015-10-01
We consider active maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference problem for hidden Markov models (HMM), where, given an initial MAP estimate of the hidden sequence, we select to label certain states in the sequence to improve the estimation accuracy of the remaining states. We focus on the binary symmetric HMM, and employ its known mapping to 1d Ising model in random fields. From the statistical physics viewpoint, the active MAP inference problem reduces to analyzing the ground state of the 1d Ising model under modified external fields. We develop an analytical approach and obtain a closed form solution that relates the expected error reduction to model parameters under the specified active inference scheme. We then use this solution to determine most optimal active inference scheme in terms of error reduction, and examine the relation of those schemes to heuristic principles of uncertainty reduction and solution unicity.
Inferring Identity From Language: Linguistic Intergroup Bias Informs Social Categorization.
Porter, Shanette C; Rheinschmidt-Same, Michelle; Richeson, Jennifer A
2016-01-01
The present research examined whether a communicator's verbal, implicit message regarding a target is used as a cue for inferring that communicator's social identity. Previous research has found linguistic intergroup bias (LIB) in individuals' speech: They use abstract language to describe in-group targets' desirable behaviors and concrete language to describe their undesirable behaviors (favorable LIB), but use concrete language for out-group targets' desirable behaviors and abstract language for their undesirable behaviors (unfavorable LIB). Consequently, one can infer the type of language a communicator is likely to use to describe in-group and out-group targets. We hypothesized and found evidence for the reverse inference. Across four studies, individuals inferred a communicator's social identity on the basis of the communicator's use of an LIB. Specifically, participants more strongly believed that a communicator and target shared a social identity when the communicator used the favorable, rather than the unfavorable, LIB in describing that target. PMID:26637358
Verbal framing of statistical evidence drives children's preference inferences.
Garvin, Laura E; Woodward, Amanda L
2015-05-01
Although research has shown that statistical information can support children's inferences about specific psychological causes of others' behavior, previous work leaves open the question of how children interpret statistical information in more ambiguous situations. The current studies investigated the effect of specific verbal framing information on children's ability to infer mental states from statistical regularities in behavior. We found that preschool children inferred others' preferences from their statistically non-random choices only when they were provided with verbal information placing the person's behavior in a specifically preference-related context, not when the behavior was presented in a non-mentalistic action context or an intentional choice context. Furthermore, verbal framing information showed some evidence of supporting children's mental state inferences even from more ambiguous statistical data. These results highlight the role that specific, relevant framing information can play in supporting children's ability to derive novel insights from statistical information. PMID:25704581
The evolution of HIV: Inferences using phylogenetics
Castro-Nallar, Eduardo; Pérez-Losada, Marcos; Burton, Gregory F.; Crandall, Keith A.
2011-01-01
Molecular phylogenetics has revolutionized the study of not only evolution but also disparate fields such as genomics, bioinformatics, epidemiology, ecology, microbiology, molecular biology and biochemistry. Particularly significant are its achievements in population genetics as a result of the development of coalescent theory, which have contributed to more accurate model-based parameter estimation and explicit hypothesis testing. The study of the evolution of many microorganisms, and HIV in particular, have benefited from these new methodologies. HIV is well suited for such sophisticated population analyses because of its large population sizes, short generation times, high substitution rates and relatively small genomes. All these factors make HIV an ideal and fascinating model to study molecular evolution in real time. Here we review the significant advances made in HIV evolution through the application of phylogenetic approaches. We first examine the relative roles of mutation and recombination on the molecular evolution of HIV and its adaptive response to drug therapy and tissue allocation. We then review some of the fundamental questions in HIV evolution in relation to its origin and diversification and describe some of the insights gained using phylogenies. Finally, we show how phylogenetic analysis has advanced our knowledge of HIV dynamics (i.e., phylodynamics). PMID:22138161