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Sample records for adaptive peircean decision

  1. Adaptive Peircean decision aid project summary assessments.

    SciTech Connect

    Senglaub, Michael E.

    2007-01-01

    This efforts objective was to identify and hybridize a suite of technologies enabling the development of predictive decision aids for use principally in combat environments but also in any complex information terrain. The technologies required included formal concept analysis for knowledge representation and information operations, Peircean reasoning to support hypothesis generation, Mill's's canons to begin defining information operators that support the first two technologies and co-evolutionary game theory to provide the environment/domain to assess predictions from the reasoning engines. The intended application domain is the IED problem because of its inherent evolutionary nature. While a fully functioning integrated algorithm was not achieved the hybridization and demonstration of the technologies was accomplished and demonstration of utility provided for a number of ancillary queries.

  2. Decision-level adaptation in motion perception

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Prolonged exposure to visual stimuli causes a bias in observers' responses to subsequent stimuli. Such adaptation-induced biases are usually explained in terms of changes in the relative activity of sensory neurons in the visual system which respond selectively to the properties of visual stimuli. However, the bias could also be due to a shift in the observer's criterion for selecting one response rather than the alternative; adaptation at the decision level of processing rather than the sensory level. We investigated whether adaptation to implied motion is best attributed to sensory-level or decision-level bias. Three experiments sought to isolate decision factors by changing the nature of the participants' task while keeping the sensory stimulus unchanged. Results showed that adaptation-induced bias in reported stimulus direction only occurred when the participants' task involved a directional judgement, and disappeared when adaptation was measured using a non-directional task (reporting where motion was present in the display, regardless of its direction). We conclude that adaptation to implied motion is due to decision-level bias, and that a propensity towards such biases may be widespread in sensory decision-making. PMID:27019726

  3. Training Adaptive Decision-Making.

    SciTech Connect

    Abbott, Robert G.; Forsythe, James C.

    2014-10-01

    Adaptive Thinking has been defined here as the capacity to recognize when a course of action that may have previously been effective is no longer effective and there is need to adjust strategy. Research was undertaken with human test subjects to identify the factors that contribute to adaptive thinking. It was discovered that those most effective in settings that call for adaptive thinking tend to possess a superior capacity to quickly and effectively generate possible courses of action, as measured using the Category Generation test. Software developed for this research has been applied to develop capabilities enabling analysts to identify crucial factors that are predictive of outcomes in fore-on-force simulation exercises.

  4. Bayesian Decision Support for Adaptive Lung Treatments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McShan, Daniel; Luo, Yi; Schipper, Matt; TenHaken, Randall

    2014-03-01

    Purpose: A Bayesian Decision Network will be demonstrated to provide clinical decision support for adaptive lung response-driven treatment management based on evidence that physiologic metrics may correlate better with individual patient response than traditional (population-based) dose and volume-based metrics. Further, there is evidence that information obtained during the course of radiation therapy may further improve response predictions. Methods: Clinical factors were gathered for 58 patients including planned mean lung dose, and the bio-markers IL-8 and TGF-β1 obtained prior to treatment and two weeks into treatment along with complication outcomes for these patients. A Bayesian Decision Network was constructed using Netica 5.0.2 from Norsys linking these clinical factors to obtain a prediction of radiation induced lung disese (RILD) complication. A decision node was added to the network to provide a plan adaption recommendation based on the trade-off between the RILD prediction and complexity of replanning. A utility node provides the weighting cost between the competing factors. Results: The decision node predictions were optimized against the data for the 58 cases. With this decision network solution, one can consider the decision result for a new patient with specific findings to obtain a recommendation to adaptively modify the originally planned treatment course. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach allows handling and propagating probabilistic data in a logical and principled manner. Decision networks provide the further ability to provide utility-based trade-offs, reflecting non-medical but practical cost/benefit analysis. The network demonstrated illustrates the basic concept, but many other factors may affect these decisions and work on building better models are being designed and tested. Acknowledgement: Supported by NIH-P01-CA59827

  5. Farmer Decision-Making for Climate Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lubell, M.; Niles, M.; Salerno, J.

    2015-12-01

    This talk will provide an overview of several studies of how farmers make decisions about climate change adaptation and mitigation. A particular focus will be the "limiting factors hypothesis", which argues that farmers will respond to the climate variables that usually have the largest impact on their crop productivity. For example, the most limiting factor in California is usually water so how climate change affects water will be the largest drive of climate adaptation decisions. This basic idea is drawn from the broader theory of "psychological distance", which argue that human decisions are more attuned to ideas that are psychologically closer in space, time, or other factors. Empirical examples come from California, New Zealand, and Africa.

  6. Age Differences in Adaptive Decision Making: The Role of Numeracy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Yiwei; Wang, Jiaxi; Kirk, Robert M.; Pethtel, Olivia L.; Kiefner, Allison E.

    2014-01-01

    The primary purposes of the present study were to examine age differences in adaptive decision making and to evaluate the role of numeracy in mediating the relationship between age and adaptive decision making. Adaptive decision making was assessed by the Cups task (Levin, Weller, Pederson, & Harshman, 2007). Forty-six younger (18 to 24 years…

  7. Age Differences in Adaptive Decision Making: The Role of Numeracy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Yiwei; Wang, Jiaxi; Kirk, Robert M.; Pethtel, Olivia L.; Kiefner, Allison E.

    2014-01-01

    The primary purposes of the present study were to examine age differences in adaptive decision making and to evaluate the role of numeracy in mediating the relationship between age and adaptive decision making. Adaptive decision making was assessed by the Cups task (Levin, Weller, Pederson, & Harshman, 2007). Forty-six younger (18 to 24 years…

  8. Adaptable history biases in human perceptual decisions

    PubMed Central

    Abrahamyan, Arman; Silva, Laura Luz; Dakin, Steven C.; Gardner, Justin L.

    2016-01-01

    When making choices under conditions of perceptual uncertainty, past experience can play a vital role. However, it can also lead to biases that worsen decisions. Consistent with previous observations, we found that human choices are influenced by the success or failure of past choices even in a standard two-alternative detection task, where choice history is irrelevant. The typical bias was one that made the subject switch choices after a failure. These choice history biases led to poorer performance and were similar for observers in different countries. They were well captured by a simple logistic regression model that had been previously applied to describe psychophysical performance in mice. Such irrational biases seem at odds with the principles of reinforcement learning, which would predict exquisite adaptability to choice history. We therefore asked whether subjects could adapt their irrational biases following changes in trial order statistics. Adaptability was strong in the direction that confirmed a subject’s default biases, but weaker in the opposite direction, so that existing biases could not be eradicated. We conclude that humans can adapt choice history biases, but cannot easily overcome existing biases even if irrational in the current context: adaptation is more sensitive to confirmatory than contradictory statistics. PMID:27330086

  9. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  10. The adaptive decision-making, risky decision, and decision-making style of Internet gaming disorder.

    PubMed

    Ko, C-H; Wang, P-W; Liu, T-L; Chen, C-S; Yen, C-F; Yen, J-Y

    2017-07-01

    Persistent gaming, despite acknowledgment of its negative consequences, is a major criterion for individuals with Internet gaming disorder (IGD). This study evaluated the adaptive decision-making, risky decision, and decision-making style of individuals with IGD. We recruited 87 individuals with IGD and 87 without IGD (matched controls). All participants underwent an interview based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th Edition) diagnostic criteria for IGD and completed an adaptive decision-making task; the Preference for Intuition and Deliberation Scale, Chen Internet Addiction Scale, and Barratt Impulsivity Scale were also assessed on the basis of the information from the diagnostic interviews. The results demonstrated that the participants in both groups tend to make more risky choices in advantage trials where their expected value (EV) was more favorable than those of the riskless choice. The tendency to make a risky choice in advantage trials was stronger among IGD group than that among controls. Participants of both groups made more risky choices in the loss domain, a risky option to loss more versus sure loss option, than they did in the gain domain, a risky option to gain more versus sure gain. Furthermore, the participants with IGD made more risky choices in the gain domain than did the controls. Participants with IGD showed higher and lower preferences for intuitive and deliberative decision-making styles, respectively, than controls and their preferences for intuition and deliberation were positively and negatively associated with IGD severity, respectively. These results suggested that individuals with IGD have elevated EV sensitivity for decision-making. However, they demonstrated risky preferences in the gain domain and preferred an intuitive rather than deliberative decision-making style. This might explain why they continue Internet gaming despite negative consequences. Thus, therapists should focus more on decision

  11. Decisions from Experience: How Groups and Individuals Adapt to Change

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-01-01

    Recency , then, may have helped individuals adapt to changes. Although recency effects are a common finding in the context of decisions from...decision-making behavior shows recency effects , as is commonly observed in the literature, individuals can be expected to deviate from Bayesian...Betsch, et al., in press, refer to as routine effects ). Alternatively, they may deviate from Bayesian updating in two ways: They may delay adaptation

  12. Maximal adaptive-decision speedups in quantum-state readout

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Anjou, Benjamin; Kuret, Loutfi; Childress, Lilian; Coish, William A.

    The average time T required for high-fidelity readout of quantum states can be significantly reduced via a real-time adaptive decision rule. An adaptive decision rule stops the readout as soon as a desired level of confidence has been achieved, as opposed to setting a fixed readout time tf. The performance of the adaptive decision is characterized by the ``adaptive-decision speedup'', tf / T . In this work, we reformulate this readout problem in terms of the first-passage time of a particle undergoing stochastic motion. This formalism allows us to theoretically establish the maximum achievable adaptive-decision speedups for several physical two-state readout implementations. We show that for two common readout schemes (the Gaussian latching readout and a readout relying on state-dependent decay), the speedup is bounded by 4 and 2, respectively, in the limit of high single-shot readout fidelity. We experimentally study the achievable speedup in a real-world scenario by applying the adaptive decision rule to a readout of the nitrogen-vacancy-center (NV-center) charge state. We find a speedup of ~ 2 with our experimental parameters. Our results should lead to immediate improvements in nano-scale magnetometry based on spin-to-charge conversion of the NV-center spin. We acknowledge support from NSERC, INTRIQ, CIFAR and the Walter C. Sumner Foundation.

  13. The Adaptability of Career Decision-Making Profiles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Dayan, Amira

    2012-01-01

    The Career Decision-Making Profiles questionnaire (CDMP; Gati, Landman, Davidovitch, Asulin-Peretz, & Gadassi, 2010) uses a new model for characterizing the way individuals make decisions based on the simultaneous use of 11 dimensions. The present study investigated which pole of each dimension is more adaptive. Using the data of 383 young…

  14. The Adaptability of Career Decision-Making Profiles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Dayan, Amira

    2012-01-01

    The Career Decision-Making Profiles questionnaire (CDMP; Gati, Landman, Davidovitch, Asulin-Peretz, & Gadassi, 2010) uses a new model for characterizing the way individuals make decisions based on the simultaneous use of 11 dimensions. The present study investigated which pole of each dimension is more adaptive. Using the data of 383 young…

  15. The adaptability of career decision-making profiles.

    PubMed

    Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Dayan, Amira

    2012-10-01

    The Career Decision-Making Profiles questionnaire (CDMP; Gati, Landman, Davidovitch, Asulin-Peretz, & Gadassi, 2010) uses a new model for characterizing the way individuals make decisions based on the simultaneous use of 11 dimensions. The present study investigated which pole of each dimension is more adaptive. Using the data of 383 young adults who were about to make a career choice, we assessed the individuals' decision status and the associations of the dimensions Emotional and Personality-related Career decision-making Difficulties (EPCD; Saka, Gati, & Kelly, 2008) and personality factors (NEO Personality Inventory-Revised; Costa & McCrae, 1992). The results suggest that, as hypothesized, comprehensive Information gathering, analytic Information processing, a more internal Locus of control, more Effort invested, less Procrastination, greater Speed of making the final decision, less Dependence on others, and less Desire to please others were more adaptive in making career decisions. However, contrary to our hypotheses, high Aspiration for an ideal occupation was more adaptive for the decision-making process, Willingness to compromise was not associated with more adaptive decision making, and the results regarding Consulting with others were mixed. Gender differences in the CDMP dimensions and counseling implications are discussed.

  16. Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

    2017-01-01

    Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management

  17. Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Fred A.

    2017-01-01

    Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management

  18. Decision-making in healthcare as a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Kuziemsky, Craig

    2016-01-01

    Healthcare transformation requires a change in how the business of healthcare is done. Traditional decision-making approaches based on stable and predictable systems are inappropriate in healthcare because of the complex nature of healthcare delivery. This article reviews challenges to using traditional decision-making approaches in healthcare and how insight from Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) could support healthcare management. The article also provides a system model to guide decision-making in healthcare as a CAS.

  19. Proactive and Adaptive Decision Support Study (PDS)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-12-09

    Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. • DMOC-, N3- and N6-specific CCIRs • GCCS-M • C2RPC / MTC2 SOA • ENMS and other network health...Process RFI Request for Information SMDP Semi-Markov decision process SOA Service-Oriented Architecture SOP Standard Operating Procedure TTP Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures

  20. The Computer as Adaptive Instructional Decision Maker.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kopstein, Felix F.; Seidel, Robert J.

    The computer's potential for education, and most particularly for instruction, is contingent on the development of a class of instructional decision models (formal instructional strategies) that interact with the student through appropriate peripheral equipment (man-machine interfaces). Computer hardware and software by themselves should not be…

  1. Adaptive Decision Aiding in Computer-Assisted Instruction: Adaptive Computerized Training System (ACTS).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hopf-Weichel, Rosemarie; And Others

    This report describes results of the first year of a three-year program to develop and evaluate a new Adaptive Computerized Training System (ACTS) for electronics maintenance training. (ACTS incorporates an adaptive computer program that learns the student's diagnostic and decision value structure, compares it to that of an expert, and adapts the…

  2. How Useful Are Climate Projections for Adaptation Decision Making?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, J. B.; Vogel, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    Decision making is often portrayed as a linear process that assumes scientific knowledge is a necessary precursor to effective policy and is used directly in policy making. Yet, in practice, the use of scientific information in decision making is more complex than the linear model implies. The use of climate projections in adaptation decision making is a case in point. This paper briefly reviews efforts by some decision makers to understand climate change risks and to apply this knowledge when making decisions on management of climate sensitive resources and infrastructure . In general, and in spite of extensive efforts to study climate change at the regional and local scale to support decision making, few decisions outside of adapting to sea level rise appear to directly apply to climate change projections. A number of U.S. municipalities and states, including Seattle, New York City, Phoenix, and the States of California and Washington, have used climate change projections to assess their vulnerability to various climate change impacts. Some adaptation decisions have been made based on projections of sea level rise, such as change in location of infrastructure. This may be because a future rise is sea level is virtually certain. In contrast, decision making on precipitation has been more limited, even where there is consensus on likely changes in sign of the variable. Nonetheless, decision makers are adopting strategies that can be justified based on current climate and climate variability and that also reduce risks to climate change. A key question for the scientific community is whether improved projections will add value to decision making. For example, it remains unclear how higher-resolution projections can change decision making as long as the sign and magnitude of projections across climate models and downscaling techniques retains a wide range of uncertainty. It is also unclear whether even better information on the sign and magnitude of change would

  3. Proactive and Adaptive Decision Support Study (PDS)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-08-31

    Arlington, VA 22203-1995 703-696-2875 jeffrey.g.morrison@navy.mil Report Prepared By: Thomas G. Allen Boston Fusion Corp. 1 Van de Graaff Drive...7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Boston Fusion Corp.,1 Van de Graaff Drive, Suite 107,Burlington,MA,01803 8. PERFORMING...During August, the principal activities for Boston Fusion were related to the preparation for, and attendance at, the ONR Proactive Decision Support

  4. Adaptive Networks For Sequential Decision Problems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-09-01

    Problems of this kind can be viewed as discrete-time stochastic control problems. The theory of stochastic sequential decision making and the computational...is to use reinforcement learning as a component of a more complex system. We experimented with a kind of " bahavior based" reinforcement learning in...navigatiwn functions that are computed by using the harmonic function approach t,, path- planning recently developed by Connolly and Grupen

  5. Information Gathering for Adaptable Decision-Making

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-02-01

    theme is the work on novice-expert differences in problem-solving, which goes back to deGroot . 1I As Newell2 notes, decision-making is a form of problem...26 REFERENCES (Cont’d) 11. A.D. deGroot , Thought and Choice in Chess, Mouton, The Hague, Nether- lands, 1965. 12. A. Newell, "Reasoning, Problem...Gentner and A.L. Stevens (eds.), Erlbaum, Hillsdale, NJ, 1983. 26. W.B. Rouse and N.M. Morris , "On Looking into the Black Box: Prospects and Limits in

  6. Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach

    PubMed Central

    Cavagnaro, Daniel R.; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I.; Pitt, Mark A.

    2014-01-01

    Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models. PMID:24532856

  7. Maximal Adaptive-Decision Speedups in Quantum-State Readout

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Anjou, B.; Kuret, L.; Childress, L.; Coish, W. A.

    2016-01-01

    The average time T required for high-fidelity readout of quantum states can be significantly reduced via a real-time adaptive decision rule. An adaptive decision rule stops the readout as soon as a desired level of confidence has been achieved, as opposed to setting a fixed readout time tf . The performance of the adaptive decision is characterized by the "adaptive-decision speedup," tf/T . In this work, we reformulate this readout problem in terms of the first-passage time of a particle undergoing stochastic motion. This formalism allows us to theoretically establish the maximum achievable adaptive-decision speedups for several physical two-state readout implementations. We show that for two common readout schemes (the Gaussian latching readout and a readout relying on state-dependent decay), the speedup is bounded by 4 and 2, respectively, in the limit of high single-shot readout fidelity. We experimentally study the achievable speedup in a real-world scenario by applying the adaptive decision rule to a readout of the nitrogen-vacancy-center (NV-center) charge state. We find a speedup of ≈2 with our experimental parameters. In addition, we propose a simple readout scheme for which the speedup can, in principle, be increased without bound as the fidelity is increased. Our results should lead to immediate improvements in nanoscale magnetometry based on spin-to-charge conversion of the NV-center spin, and provide a theoretical framework for further optimization of the bandwidth of quantum measurements.

  8. Episodic memories predict adaptive value-based decision-making.

    PubMed

    Murty, Vishnu P; FeldmanHall, Oriel; Hunter, Lindsay E; Phelps, Elizabeth A; Davachi, Lila

    2016-05-01

    Prior research illustrates that memory can guide value-based decision-making. For example, previous work has implicated both working memory and procedural memory (i.e., reinforcement learning) in guiding choice. However, other types of memories, such as episodic memory, may also influence decision-making. Here we test the role for episodic memory-specifically item versus associative memory-in supporting value-based choice. Participants completed a task where they first learned the value associated with trial unique lotteries. After a short delay, they completed a decision-making task where they could choose to reengage with previously encountered lotteries, or new never before seen lotteries. Finally, participants completed a surprise memory test for the lotteries and their associated values. Results indicate that participants chose to reengage more often with lotteries that resulted in high versus low rewards. Critically, participants not only formed detailed, associative memories for the reward values coupled with individual lotteries, but also exhibited adaptive decision-making only when they had intact associative memory. We further found that the relationship between adaptive choice and associative memory generalized to more complex, ecologically valid choice behavior, such as social decision-making. However, individuals more strongly encode experiences of social violations-such as being treated unfairly, suggesting a bias for how individuals form associative memories within social contexts. Together, these findings provide an important integration of episodic memory and decision-making literatures to better understand key mechanisms supporting adaptive behavior.

  9. Adaptive neural coding: from biological to behavioral decision-making.

    PubMed

    Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W; Webb, Ryan

    2015-10-01

    Empirical decision-making in diverse species deviates from the predictions of normative choice theory, but why such suboptimal behavior occurs is unknown. Here, we propose that deviations from optimality arise from biological decision mechanisms that have evolved to maximize choice performance within intrinsic biophysical constraints. Sensory processing utilizes specific computations such as divisive normalization to maximize information coding in constrained neural circuits, and recent evidence suggests that analogous computations operate in decision-related brain areas. These adaptive computations implement a relative value code that may explain the characteristic context-dependent nature of behavioral violations of classical normative theory. Examining decision-making at the computational level thus provides a crucial link between the architecture of biological decision circuits and the form of empirical choice behavior.

  10. Adaptive neural coding: from biological to behavioral decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W.; Webb, Ryan

    2015-01-01

    Empirical decision-making in diverse species deviates from the predictions of normative choice theory, but why such suboptimal behavior occurs is unknown. Here, we propose that deviations from optimality arise from biological decision mechanisms that have evolved to maximize choice performance within intrinsic biophysical constraints. Sensory processing utilizes specific computations such as divisive normalization to maximize information coding in constrained neural circuits, and recent evidence suggests that analogous computations operate in decision-related brain areas. These adaptive computations implement a relative value code that may explain the characteristic context-dependent nature of behavioral violations of classical normative theory. Examining decision-making at the computational level thus provides a crucial link between the architecture of biological decision circuits and the form of empirical choice behavior. PMID:26722666

  11. Adaptive Decision Aiding in Computer-Assisted Instruction: Adaptive Computerized Training System (ACTS)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-09-01

    CATALOG NUMBERTechnical Report 475%; , ADAPTIVE DECISION &IDING IN OMPUTER-ASSISTED *JECHNICAL REPOT INSTRUCTION: ADAPTIVE COMPUTERIZED TRAINING )16...alternative. For example, in auto maintenance, the mechanic is trained to adjust the dis- tributor with a "feeler" guage or a dwell tachometer . He

  12. Decision-directed entropy-based adaptive filtering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Myler, Harley R.; Weeks, Arthur R.; Van Dyke-Lewis, Michelle

    1991-12-01

    A recurring problem in adaptive filtering is selection of control measures for parameter modification. A number of methods reported thus far have used localized order statistics to adaptively adjust filter parameters. The most effective techniques are based on edge detection as a decision mechanism to allow the preservation of edge information while noise is filtered. In general, decision-directed adaptive filters operate on a localized area within an image by using statistics of the area as a discrimination parameter. Typically, adaptive filters are based on pixel to pixel variations within a localized area that are due to either edges or additive noise. In homogeneous areas within the image where variances are due to additive noise, the filter should operate to reduce the noise. Using an edge detection technique, a decision directed adaptive filter can vary the filtering proportional to the amount of edge information detected. We show an approach using an entropy measure on edges to differentiate between variations in the image due to edge information as compared against noise. The method uses entropy calculated against the spatial contour variations of edges in the window.

  13. Sequential decision making in computational sustainability via adaptive submodularity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Andreas Krause,; Daniel Golovin,; Converse, Sarah J.

    2015-01-01

    Many problems in computational sustainability require making a sequence of decisions in complex, uncertain environments. Such problems are generally notoriously difficult. In this article, we review the recently discovered notion of adaptive submodularity, an intuitive diminishing returns condition that generalizes the classical notion of submodular set functions to sequential decision problems. Problems exhibiting the adaptive submodularity property can be efficiently and provably near-optimally solved using simple myopic policies. We illustrate this concept in several case studies of interest in computational sustainability: First, we demonstrate how it can be used to efficiently plan for resolving uncertainty in adaptive management scenarios. Secondly, we show how it applies to dynamic conservation planning for protecting endangered species, a case study carried out in collaboration with the US Geological Survey and the US Fish and Wildlife Service.

  14. Engaging stakeholders for adaptive management using structured decision analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Irwin, Elise R.; Kathryn, D.; Kennedy, Mickett

    2009-01-01

    Adaptive management is different from other types of management in that it includes all stakeholders (versus only policy makers) in the process, uses resource optimization techniques to evaluate competing objectives, and recognizes and attempts to reduce uncertainty inherent in natural resource systems. Management actions are negotiated by stakeholders, monitored results are compared to predictions of how the system should respond, and management strategies are adjusted in a “monitor-compare-adjust” iterative routine. Many adaptive management projects fail because of the lack of stakeholder identification, engagement, and continued involvement. Primary reasons for this vary but are usually related to either stakeholders not having ownership (or representation) in decision processes or disenfranchisement of stakeholders after adaptive management begins. We present an example in which stakeholders participated fully in adaptive management of a southeastern regulated river. Structured decision analysis was used to define management objectives and stakeholder values and to determine initial flow prescriptions. The process was transparent, and the visual nature of the modeling software allowed stakeholders to see how their interests and values were represented in the decision process. The development of a stakeholder governance structure and communication mechanism has been critical to the success of the project.

  15. A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Parish, Esther S; Nugent, Philip J

    2016-01-01

    Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). For all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

  16. Adaptive shape coding for perceptual decisions in the human brain

    PubMed Central

    Kourtzi, Zoe; Welchman, Andrew E.

    2015-01-01

    In its search for neural codes, the field of visual neuroscience has uncovered neural representations that reflect the structure of stimuli of variable complexity from simple features to object categories. However, accumulating evidence suggests an adaptive neural code that is dynamically shaped by experience to support flexible and efficient perceptual decisions. Here, we review work showing that experience plays a critical role in molding midlevel visual representations for perceptual decisions. Combining behavioral and brain imaging measurements, we demonstrate that learning optimizes feature binding for object recognition in cluttered scenes, and tunes the neural representations of informative image parts to support efficient categorical judgements. Our findings indicate that similar learning mechanisms may mediate long-term optimization through development, tune the visual system to fundamental principles of feature binding, and optimize feature templates for perceptual decisions. PMID:26024511

  17. Computerized Adaptive Test vs. decision trees: Development of a support decision system to identify suicidal behavior.

    PubMed

    Delgado-Gomez, D; Baca-Garcia, E; Aguado, D; Courtet, P; Lopez-Castroman, J

    2016-12-01

    Several Computerized Adaptive Tests (CATs) have been proposed to facilitate assessments in mental health. These tests are built in a standard way, disregarding useful and usually available information not included in the assessment scales that could increase the precision and utility of CATs, such as the history of suicide attempts. Using the items of a previously developed scale for suicidal risk, we compared the performance of a standard CAT and a decision tree in a support decision system to identify suicidal behavior. We included the history of past suicide attempts as a class for the separation of patients in the decision tree. The decision tree needed an average of four items to achieve a similar accuracy than a standard CAT with nine items. The accuracy of the decision tree, obtained after 25 cross-validations, was 81.4%. A shortened test adapted for the separation of suicidal and non-suicidal patients was developed. CATs can be very useful tools for the assessment of suicidal risk. However, standard CATs do not use all the information that is available. A decision tree can improve the precision of the assessment since they are constructed using a priori information. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. What Does It Take to Produce Interpretation? Informational, Peircean, and Code-Semiotic Views on Biosemiotics

    SciTech Connect

    Brier, Soren; Joslyn, Cliff A.

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents a critical analysis of code-semiotics, which we see as the latest attempt to create paradigmatic foundation for solving the question of the emergence of life and consciousness. We view code semiotics as a an attempt to revise the empirical scientific Darwinian paradigm, and to go beyond the complex systems, emergence, self-organization, and informational paradigms, and also the selfish gene theory of Dawkins and the Peircean pragmaticist semiotic theory built on the simultaneous types of evolution. As such it is a new and bold attempt to use semiotics to solve the problems created by the evolutionary paradigm’s commitment to produce a theory of how to connect the two sides of the Cartesian dualistic view of physical reality and consciousness in a consistent way.

  19. How Does the Brain Implement Adaptive Decision Making to Eat?

    PubMed Central

    Walsh, B. Timothy; Kaye, Walter; Geliebter, Allan

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive decision making to eat is crucial for survival, but in anorexia nervosa, the brain persistently supports reduced food intake despite a growing need for energy. How the brain persists in reducing food intake, sometimes even to the point of death and despite the evolution of multiple mechanisms to ensure survival by governing adaptive eating behaviors, remains mysterious. Neural substrates belong to the reward-habit system, which could differ among the eating disorders. The present review provides an overview of neural circuitry of restrictive food choice, binge eating, and the contribution of specific serotonin receptors. One possibility is that restrictive food intake critically engages goal-directed (decision making) systems and “habit,” supporting the view that persistent caloric restriction mimics some aspects of addiction to drugs of abuse. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT An improved understanding of the neural basis of eating disorders is a timely challenge because these disorders can be deadly. Up to 70 million of people in the world suffer from eating disorders. Anorexia nervosa affects 1–4% of women in United States and is the first cause of death among adolescents in Europe. Studies relying on animal models suggest that decision making to eat (or not) can prevail over actual energy requirements due to emotional disturbances resulting in abnormal habitual behavior, mimicking dependence. These recent studies provide a foundation for developing more specific and effective interventions for these disorders. PMID:26468187

  20. Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

    2011-12-01

    Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this

  1. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

  2. What is adaptive about adaptive decision making? A parallel constraint satisfaction account.

    PubMed

    Glöckner, Andreas; Hilbig, Benjamin E; Jekel, Marc

    2014-12-01

    There is broad consensus that human cognition is adaptive. However, the vital question of how exactly this adaptivity is achieved has remained largely open. Herein, we contrast two frameworks which account for adaptive decision making, namely broad and general single-mechanism accounts vs. multi-strategy accounts. We propose and fully specify a single-mechanism model for decision making based on parallel constraint satisfaction processes (PCS-DM) and contrast it theoretically and empirically against a multi-strategy account. To achieve sufficiently sensitive tests, we rely on a multiple-measure methodology including choice, reaction time, and confidence data as well as eye-tracking. Results show that manipulating the environmental structure produces clear adaptive shifts in choice patterns - as both frameworks would predict. However, results on the process level (reaction time, confidence), in information acquisition (eye-tracking), and from cross-predicting choice consistently corroborate single-mechanisms accounts in general, and the proposed parallel constraint satisfaction model for decision making in particular.

  3. A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

    2013-12-01

    Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more

  4. Homeostatic Regulation of Memory Systems and Adaptive Decisions

    PubMed Central

    Mizumori, Sheri JY; Jo, Yong Sang

    2013-01-01

    While it is clear that many brain areas process mnemonic information, understanding how their interactions result in continuously adaptive behaviors has been a challenge. A homeostatic-regulated prediction model of memory is presented that considers the existence of a single memory system that is based on a multilevel coordinated and integrated network (from cells to neural systems) that determines the extent to which events and outcomes occur as predicted. The “multiple memory systems of the brain” have in common output that signals errors in the prediction of events and/or their outcomes, although these signals differ in terms of what the error signal represents (e.g., hippocampus: context prediction errors vs. midbrain/striatum: reward prediction errors). The prefrontal cortex likely plays a pivotal role in the coordination of prediction analysis within and across prediction brain areas. By virtue of its widespread control and influence, and intrinsic working memory mechanisms. Thus, the prefrontal cortex supports the flexible processing needed to generate adaptive behaviors and predict future outcomes. It is proposed that prefrontal cortex continually and automatically produces adaptive responses according to homeostatic regulatory principles: prefrontal cortex may serve as a controller that is intrinsically driven to maintain in prediction areas an experience-dependent firing rate set point that ensures adaptive temporally and spatially resolved neural responses to future prediction errors. This same drive by prefrontal cortex may also restore set point firing rates after deviations (i.e. prediction errors) are detected. In this way, prefrontal cortex contributes to reducing uncertainty in prediction systems. An emergent outcome of this homeostatic view may be the flexible and adaptive control that prefrontal cortex is known to implement (i.e. working memory) in the most challenging of situations. Compromise to any of the prediction circuits should result

  5. Homeostatic regulation of memory systems and adaptive decisions.

    PubMed

    Mizumori, Sheri J Y; Jo, Yong Sang

    2013-11-01

    While it is clear that many brain areas process mnemonic information, understanding how their interactions result in continuously adaptive behaviors has been a challenge. A homeostatic-regulated prediction model of memory is presented that considers the existence of a single memory system that is based on a multilevel coordinated and integrated network (from cells to neural systems) that determines the extent to which events and outcomes occur as predicted. The "multiple memory systems of the brain" have in common output that signals errors in the prediction of events and/or their outcomes, although these signals differ in terms of what the error signal represents (e.g., hippocampus: context prediction errors vs. midbrain/striatum: reward prediction errors). The prefrontal cortex likely plays a pivotal role in the coordination of prediction analysis within and across prediction brain areas. By virtue of its widespread control and influence, and intrinsic working memory mechanisms. Thus, the prefrontal cortex supports the flexible processing needed to generate adaptive behaviors and predict future outcomes. It is proposed that prefrontal cortex continually and automatically produces adaptive responses according to homeostatic regulatory principles: prefrontal cortex may serve as a controller that is intrinsically driven to maintain in prediction areas an experience-dependent firing rate set point that ensures adaptive temporally and spatially resolved neural responses to future prediction errors. This same drive by prefrontal cortex may also restore set point firing rates after deviations (i.e. prediction errors) are detected. In this way, prefrontal cortex contributes to reducing uncertainty in prediction systems. An emergent outcome of this homeostatic view may be the flexible and adaptive control that prefrontal cortex is known to implement (i.e. working memory) in the most challenging of situations. Compromise to any of the prediction circuits should result in

  6. Adaptive awareness for personal and small group decision making.

    SciTech Connect

    Perano, Kenneth J.; Tucker, Steve; Pancerella, Carmen M.; Doser, Adele Beatrice; Berry, Nina M.; Kyker, Ronald D.

    2003-12-01

    Many situations call for the use of sensors monitoring physiological and environmental data. In order to use the large amounts of sensor data to affect decision making, we are coupling heterogeneous sensors with small, light-weight processors, other powerful computers, wireless communications, and embedded intelligent software. The result is an adaptive awareness and warning tool, which provides both situation awareness and personal awareness to individuals and teams. Central to this tool is a sensor-independent architecture, which combines both software agents and a reusable core software framework that manages the available hardware resources and provides services to the agents. Agents can recognize cues from the data, warn humans about situations, and act as decision-making aids. Within the agents, self-organizing maps (SOMs) are used to process physiological data in order to provide personal awareness. We have employed a novel clustering algorithm to train the SOM to discern individual body states and activities. This awareness tool has broad applicability to emergency teams, military squads, military medics, individual exercise and fitness monitoring, health monitoring for sick and elderly persons, and environmental monitoring in public places. This report discusses our hardware decisions, software framework, and a pilot awareness tool, which has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories.

  7. Observations to support adaptation: Principles, scales and decision-making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    As has been long noted, a comprehensive, coordinated observing system is the backbone of any Earth information system. Demands are increasingly placed on earth observation and prediction systems and attendant services to address the needs of economically and environmentally vulnerable sectors and investments, including energy, water, human health, transportation, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, biodiversity, and national security. Climate services include building capacity to interpret information and recognize standards and limitations of data in the promotion of social and economic development in a changing climate. This includes improving the understanding of climate in the context of a variety of temporal and spatial scales (including the influence of decadal scale forcings and land surface feedbacks on seasonal forecast reliability). Climate data and information are central for developing decision options that are sensitive to climate-related uncertainties and the design of flexible adaptation pathways. Ideally monitoring should be action oriented to support climate risk assessment and adaptation including informing robust decision making to multiple risks over the long term. Based on the experience of global observations programs and empirical research we outline- Challenges in developing effective monitoring and climate information systems to support adaptation. The types of observations of critical importance needed for sector planning to enhance food, water and energy security, and to improve early warning for disaster risk reduction Observations needed for ecosystem-based adaptation including the identification of thresholds, maintenance of biological diversity and land degradation The benefits and limits of linking regional model output to local observations including analogs and verification for adaptation planning To support these goals a robust systems of integrated observations are needed to characterize the uncertainty surrounding emergent risks

  8. Toolbox or Adjustable Spanner? A Critical Comparison of Two Metaphors for Adaptive Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Söllner, Anke; Bröder, Arndt

    2016-01-01

    For multiattribute decision tasks, different metaphors exist that describe the process of decision making and its adaptation to diverse problems and situations. Multiple strategy models (MSMs) assume that decision makers choose adaptively from a set of different strategies (toolbox metaphor), whereas evidence accumulation models (EAMs) hold that a…

  9. Adapting My Weather Impacts Decision Aid (MyWIDA) to Additional Web Application Server Technologies

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-08-01

    ARL-TN-0688 ● AUG 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Adapting My Weather Impacts Decision Aid (MyWIDA) to Additional Web ...Laboratory Adapting My Weather Impacts Decision Aid (MyWIDA) to Additional Web Application Server Technologies by Jacob C Randall and Jeffrey O...COVERED (From - To) May–Aug 2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Adapting My Weather Impacts Decision Aid (MyWIDA) to Additional Web Application Server

  10. "The Gaze Heuristic:" Biography of an Adaptively Rational Decision Process.

    PubMed

    Hamlin, Robert P

    2017-02-21

    This article is a case study that describes the natural and human history of the gaze heuristic. The gaze heuristic is an interception heuristic that utilizes a single input (deviation from a constant angle of approach) repeatedly as a task is performed. Its architecture, advantages, and limitations are described in detail. A history of the gaze heuristic is then presented. In natural history, the gaze heuristic is the only known technique used by predators to intercept prey. In human history the gaze heuristic was discovered accidentally by Royal Air Force (RAF) fighter command just prior to World War II. As it was never discovered by the Luftwaffe, the technique conferred a decisive advantage upon the RAF throughout the war. After the end of the war in America, German technology was combined with the British heuristic to create the Sidewinder AIM9 missile, the most successful autonomous weapon ever built. There are no plans to withdraw it or replace its guiding gaze heuristic. The case study demonstrates that the gaze heuristic is a specific heuristic type that takes a single best input at the best time (take the best(2) ). Its use is an adaptively rational response to specific, rapidly evolving decision environments that has allowed those animals/humans/machines who use it to survive, prosper, and multiply relative to those who do not.

  11. Automated mechanical ventilation: adapting decision making to different disease states.

    PubMed

    Lozano-Zahonero, S; Gottlieb, D; Haberthür, C; Guttmann, J; Möller, K

    2011-03-01

    The purpose of the present study is to introduce a novel methodology for adapting and upgrading decision-making strategies concerning mechanical ventilation with respect to different disease states into our fuzzy-based expert system, AUTOPILOT-BT. The special features are: (1) Extraction of clinical knowledge in analogy to the daily routine. (2) An automated process to obtain the required information and to create fuzzy sets. (3) The controller employs the derived fuzzy rules to achieve the desired ventilation status. For demonstration this study focuses exclusively on the control of arterial CO(2) partial pressure (p(a)CO(2)). Clinical knowledge from 61 anesthesiologists was acquired using a questionnaire from which different disease-specific fuzzy sets were generated to control p(a)CO(2). For both, patients with healthy lung and with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) the fuzzy sets show different shapes. The fuzzy set "normal", i.e., "target p(a)CO(2) area", ranges from 35 to 39 mmHg for healthy lungs and from 39 to 43 mmHg for ARDS lungs. With the new fuzzy sets our AUTOPILOT-BT reaches the target p(a)CO(2) within maximal three consecutive changes of ventilator settings. Thus, clinical knowledge can be extended, updated, and the resulting mechanical ventilation therapies can be individually adapted, analyzed, and evaluated.

  12. Adaptive Computer Aiding in Dynamic Decision Processes: An Experimental Study of Aiding Effectiveness

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1975-05-01

    and a larger subject group. 1-2 Adaptive Decision Aiding 1-2 The primary function of ADDAM is not simply to model the decision maker’s behavior...maximum expected utility (OEVMAXEU) during the course of the test session was the primary measure of decision performance. As a group, the aided...in Chapter 3. The primary function of ADDAM is not simply to model the decision maker’s behavior but to provide a basis for decision aiding. Once

  13. Understanding and applying principles of social cognition and decision making in adaptive environmental governance

    EPA Science Inventory

    Environmental governance systems are under greater pressure to adapt and to cope with increased social and ecological uncertainty from stressors like climate change. We review principles of social cognition and decision making that shape and constrain how environmental governance...

  14. Modeling Adaptation as a Flow and Stock Decision with Mitigation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mitigation and adaptation are the two key responses available to policymakers to reduce the risks of climate change. We model these two policies together in a new DICE-based integrated assessment model that characterizes adaptation as either short-lived flow spending or long-liv...

  15. Modeling Adaptation as a Flow and Stock Decision with Mitigation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mitigation and adaptation are the two key responses available to policymakers to reduce the risks of climate change. We model these two policies together in a new DICE-based integrated assessment model that characterizes adaptation as either short-lived flow spending or long-liv...

  16. Conservation program participation and adaptive rangeland decision-making

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    This paper analyzes rancher participation in conservation programs in the context of a social-ecological framework for adaptive rangeland management. We argue that conservation programs are best understood as one of many strategies of adaptively managing rangelands in ways that sustain livelihoods a...

  17. Integrating Robust Decision Making (RDM) and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP): Towards a Unified Decision Making Framework under Deep Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, A.; Weijs, S.

    2016-12-01

    With exogenous factors such as climate change, future demand, resource options, technological and economic constraints, water agency plans should be robust and able to be adapted over time to meet agency goals over a wide range of plausible future conditions. A variety of new approaches and computational tools are being put forward to aid decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU). Robust Decision Making (RDM) and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) are the two frameworks that have been applied recently to a variety of problems. While RDM facilitates the analysis of trade-offs and the iterative learning about a policy problem, DAPP offers a map of possible routes into the future giving insight into future actions that can be taken if the initial actions prove to be insufficient, thus, alleviating the irreversibility of decisions. This paper first investigates into both approaches, and then suggest a way to combine elements from both so as to produce a more unified decision making framework under deep uncertainty. Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2013 submitted by British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority (BC Hydro) is considered for the analyses. Main focus is on identification of scenarios that highlight the vulnerabilities of IRP strategies in different state of the world using RDM approach and then employing DAPP to identify demand and climate-related signposts. This work will inform decision makers and stakeholders to adapt robust plans in upcoming IRP 2018.

  18. Confidence in Pass/Fail Decisions for Computer Adaptive and Paper and Pencil Examinations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bergstrom, Betty A.; Lunz, Mary E.

    The level of confidence in pass/fail decisions obtained with computer adaptive tests (CATs) was compared to decisions based on paper-and-pencil tests. Subjects included 645 medical technology students from 238 educational programs across the country. The tests used in this study constituted part of the subjects' review for the certification…

  19. Adapting Scott and Bruce's General Decision-Making Style Inventory to Patient Decision Making in Provider Choice.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Sophia; Soyez, Katja; Gurtner, Sebastian

    2015-05-01

    Research testing the concept of decision-making styles in specific contexts such as health care-related choices is missing. Therefore, we examine the contextuality of Scott and Bruce's (1995) General Decision-Making Style Inventory with respect to patient choice situations. Scott and Bruce's scale was adapted for use as a patient decision-making style inventory. In total, 388 German patients who underwent elective joint surgery responded to a questionnaire about their provider choice. Confirmatory factor analyses within 2 independent samples assessed factorial structure, reliability, and validity of the scale. The final 4-dimensional, 13-item patient decision-making style inventory showed satisfactory psychometric properties. Data analyses supported reliability and construct validity. Besides the intuitive, dependent, and avoidant style, a new subdimension, called "comparative" decision-making style, emerged that originated from the rational dimension of the general model. This research provides evidence for the contextuality of decision-making style to specific choice situations. Using a limited set of indicators, this report proposes the patient decision-making style inventory as valid and feasible tool to assess patients' decision propensities. © The Author(s) 2015.

  20. Confidence in Pass/Fail Decisions for Computer Adaptive and Paper and Pencil Examinations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bergstrom, Betty A.; Lunz, Mary E.

    1992-01-01

    The level of confidence in pass/fail decisions obtained with computerized adaptive tests and paper-and-pencil tests was greater for 645 medical technology students when the computer adaptive test implemented a 90 percent confidence stopping rule than for paper-and-pencil tests of comparable length. (SLD)

  1. A Comparison of Adaptive Sequential, and Conventional Testing Strategies for Mastery Decisions.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-11-01

    AdA094 478 MINNESOTA UNIV MINNEAPOLIS COMPUTERIZED ADAPTIVE TES-ETC FIG 5/9 A COMPARISON OF ADAPTIVE SEQUENTIAL, AND CONVENTIONAL TESTING S --ETC(U...NUMBER ReseQarch po_ 104 "- . S . TYPE OF REPORT 6 PERIOD COVERED A Comparison of Adaptive, Sequential, and Technical Report Conventional Testing...Strategies for ! Mastery Decisions, S . PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER 7. AUTHOR( s ) S . CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMBER(e) G0 . Gage Kingsbury SW David J. Weiss /5

  2. Adaptive Sampling of Information in Perceptual Decision-Making

    PubMed Central

    Cassey, Thomas C.; Evens, David R.; Bogacz, Rafal; Marshall, James A. R.; Ludwig, Casimir J. H.

    2013-01-01

    In many perceptual and cognitive decision-making problems, humans sample multiple noisy information sources serially, and integrate the sampled information to make an overall decision. We derive the optimal decision procedure for two-alternative choice tasks in which the different options are sampled one at a time, sources vary in the quality of the information they provide, and the available time is fixed. To maximize accuracy, the optimal observer allocates time to sampling different information sources in proportion to their noise levels. We tested human observers in a corresponding perceptual decision-making task. Observers compared the direction of two random dot motion patterns that were triggered only when fixated. Observers allocated more time to the noisier pattern, in a manner that correlated with their sensory uncertainty about the direction of the patterns. There were several differences between the optimal observer predictions and human behaviour. These differences point to a number of other factors, beyond the quality of the currently available sources of information, that influences the sampling strategy. PMID:24312172

  3. 2D/3D video content adaptation decision engine based on content classification and user assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandes, Rui; Andrade, M. T.

    2017-07-01

    Multimedia adaptation depends on several factors, such as the content itself, the consumption device and its characteristics, the transport and access networks and the user. An adaptation decision engine, in order to provide the best possible Quality of Experience to a user, needs to have information about all variables that may influence its decision. For the aforementioned factors, we implement content classification, define device classes, consider limited bandwidth scenarios and categorize user preferences based on a subjective quality evaluation test. The results of these actions generate vital information to pass to the adaptation decision engine so that its operation may provide the indication of the most suitable adaptation to perform that delivers the best possible outcome for the user under the existing constraints.

  4. Adaptive network models of collective decision making in swarming systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Li; Huepe, Cristián; Gross, Thilo

    2016-08-01

    We consider a class of adaptive network models where links can only be created or deleted between nodes in different states. These models provide an approximate description of a set of systems where nodes represent agents moving in physical or abstract space, the state of each node represents the agent's heading direction, and links indicate mutual awareness. We show analytically that the adaptive network description captures a phase transition to collective motion in some swarming systems, such as the Vicsek model, and that the properties of this transition are determined by the number of states (discrete heading directions) that can be accessed by each agent.

  5. Building a Decision Support Tool for Adaptation to Extreme Heat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinberg, N.

    2016-12-01

    Human vulnerability to extreme heat can be a difficult measure to assess and effectively "operationalize" for key decision-makers. Existing heat alerts are sensitive to scale and context, often leaving public officials with insufficient forecast data, lack of coherent guidance, and an absence of tools that can accurately represent local heat-health risks. While local forecast data and extreme weather outlooks continue to improve, stakeholders are asking for decision support about interoperability and appropriate interventions to reduce heat-health risks for vulnerable populations. This presentation will discuss the information needs determined by public health officials in California with funding from California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment. Findings from a user needs assessment will be followed by a discussion of methods for communicating heat vulnerability and developing user-centric tools that can help public health professionals and planners prepare their communities for extreme heat.

  6. Designing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways using Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwakkel, Jan; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

    2017-04-01

    Dealing with climate risks in water management requires confronting a wide variety of deeply uncertain factors, while navigating a many dimensional space of trade-offs amongst objectives. There is an emerging body of literature on supporting this type of decision problem, under the label of decision making under deep uncertainty. Two approaches within this literature are Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. In recent work, these approaches have been compared. One of the main conclusions of this comparison was that they are highly complementary. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making is a model based decision support approach, while Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is primarily a conceptual framework for the design of flexible strategies that can be adapted over time in response to how the future is actually unfolding. In this research we explore this complementarity in more detail. Specifically, we demonstrate how Many-Objective Robust Decision Making can be used to design adaptation pathways. We demonstrate this combined approach using a water management problem, in the Netherlands. The water level of Lake IJselmeer, the main fresh water resource of the Netherlands, is currently managed through discharge by gravity. Due to climate change, this won't be possible in the future, unless water levels are changed. Changing the water level has undesirable flood risk and spatial planning consequences. The challenge is to find promising adaptation pathways that balance objectives related to fresh water supply, flood risk, and spatial issues, while accounting for uncertain climatic and land use change. We conclude that the combination of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is particularly suited for dealing with deeply uncertain climate risks.

  7. Adaptation of a Knowledge-Based Decision-Support System in the Tactical Environment.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-12-01

    response. One approach to accomplish this is the incorporation of artificial intelligence into the tactical decision-support system ( TDSS ). Although most...our solution. A very critical, perhaps the most critical, shortcoming of current systems is the difficulty encountered in adapting the TDSS to changing...different. k TDSS , to be truly responsive to the needs of the tactical commander, must be able to adapt to these changes rapidly. Current systems

  8. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  9. Revisiting the generation and interpretation of climate models experiments for adaptation decision-making (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranger, N.; Millner, A.; Niehoerster, F.

    2010-12-01

    Traditionally, climate change risk assessments have taken a roughly four-stage linear ‘chain’ of moving from socioeconomic projections, to climate projections, to primary impacts and then finally onto economic and social impact assessment. Adaptation decisions are then made on the basis of these outputs. The escalation of uncertainty through this chain is well known; resulting in an ‘explosion’ of uncertainties in the final risk and adaptation assessment. The space of plausible future risk scenarios is growing ever wider with the application of new techniques which aim to explore uncertainty ever more deeply; such as those used in the recent ‘probabilistic’ UK Climate Projections 2009, and the stochastic integrated assessment models, for example PAGE2002. This explosion of uncertainty can make decision-making problematic, particularly given that the uncertainty information communicated can not be treated as strictly probabilistic and therefore, is not an easy fit with standard decision-making under uncertainty approaches. Additional problems can arise from the fact that the uncertainty estimated for different components of the ‘chain’ is rarely directly comparable or combinable. Here, we explore the challenges and limitations of using current projections for adaptation decision-making. We report the findings of a recent report completed for the UK Adaptation Sub-Committee on approaches to deal with these challenges and make robust adaptation decisions today. To illustrate these approaches, we take a number of illustrative case studies, including a case of adaptation to hurricane risk on the US Gulf Coast. This is a particularly interesting case as it involves urgent adaptation of long-lived infrastructure but requires interpreting highly uncertain climate change science and modelling; i.e. projections of Atlantic basin hurricane activity. An approach we outline is reversing the linear chain of assessments to put the economics and decision

  10. Response-Adaptive Decision-Theoretic Trial Design: Operating Characteristics and Ethics

    PubMed Central

    Lipsky, Ari M.; Lewis, Roger J.

    2013-01-01

    Adaptive randomization is used in clinical trials to increase statistical efficiency. In addition, some clinicians and researchers believe that using adaptive randomization leads necessarily to more ethical treatment of subjects in a trial. We develop Bayesian, decision-theoretic, clinical trial designs with response-adaptive randomization and a primary goal of estimating treatment effect, and then contrast these designs with designs that also include in their loss function a cost for poor subject outcome. When the loss function did not incorporate a cost for poor subject outcome, the gains in efficiency from response-adaptive randomization were accompanied by ethically concerning subject allocations. Conversely, including a cost for poor subject outcome demonstrated a more acceptable balance between the competing needs in the trial. A subsequent, parallel set of trials designed to control explicitly type I and II error rates showed that much of the improvement achieved through modification of the loss function was essentially negated. Therefore, gains in efficiency from the use of a decision-theoretic, response-adaptive design using adaptive randomization may only be assumed to apply to those goals which are explicitly included in the loss function. Trial goals, including ethical ones, which do not appear in the loss function are ignored and may even be compromised; it is thus inappropriate to assume that all adaptive trials are necessarily more ethical. Controlling type I and II error rates largely negates the benefit of including competing needs in favor of the goal of parameter estimation. PMID:23558674

  11. Lost in Search: (Mal-)Adaptation to Probabilistic Decision Environments in Children and Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Betsch, Tilmann; Lehmann, Anne; Lindow, Stefanie; Lang, Anna; Schoemann, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Adaptive decision making in probabilistic environments requires individuals to use probabilities as weights in predecisional information searches and/or when making subsequent choices. Within a child-friendly computerized environment (Mousekids), we tracked 205 children's (105 children 5-6 years of age and 100 children 9-10 years of age) and 103…

  12. Lost in Search: (Mal-)Adaptation to Probabilistic Decision Environments in Children and Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Betsch, Tilmann; Lehmann, Anne; Lindow, Stefanie; Lang, Anna; Schoemann, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Adaptive decision making in probabilistic environments requires individuals to use probabilities as weights in predecisional information searches and/or when making subsequent choices. Within a child-friendly computerized environment (Mousekids), we tracked 205 children's (105 children 5-6 years of age and 100 children 9-10 years of age) and 103…

  13. Reversible and Noisy Progression towards a Commitment Point Enables Adaptable and Reliable Cellular Decision-Making

    PubMed Central

    Garcia-Ojalvo, Jordi; Süel, Gürol M.

    2011-01-01

    Cells must make reliable decisions under fluctuating extracellular conditions, but also be flexible enough to adapt to such changes. How cells reconcile these seemingly contradictory requirements through the dynamics of cellular decision-making is poorly understood. To study this issue we quantitatively measured gene expression and protein localization in single cells of the model organism Bacillus subtilis during the progression to spore formation. We found that sporulation proceeded through noisy and reversible steps towards an irreversible, all-or-none commitment point. Specifically, we observed cell-autonomous and spontaneous bursts of gene expression and transient protein localization events during sporulation. Based on these measurements we developed mathematical population models to investigate how the degree of reversibility affects cellular decision-making. In particular, we evaluated the effect of reversibility on the 1) reliability in the progression to sporulation, and 2) adaptability under changing extracellular stress conditions. Results show that reversible progression allows cells to remain responsive to long-term environmental fluctuations. In contrast, the irreversible commitment point supports reliable execution of cell fate choice that is robust against short-term reductions in stress. This combination of opposite dynamic behaviors (reversible and irreversible) thus maximizes both adaptable and reliable decision-making over a broad range of changes in environmental conditions. These results suggest that decision-making systems might employ a general hybrid strategy to cope with unpredictably fluctuating environmental conditions. PMID:22102806

  14. Quantifying the Value of Downscaled Climate Model Information for Adaptation Decisions: When is Downscaling a Smart Decision?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terando, A. J.; Wootten, A.; Eaton, M. J.; Runge, M. C.; Littell, J. S.; Bryan, A. M.; Carter, S. L.

    2015-12-01

    Two types of decisions face society with respect to anthropogenic climate change: (1) whether to enact a global greenhouse gas abatement policy, and (2) how to adapt to the local consequences of current and future climatic changes. The practice of downscaling global climate models (GCMs) is often used to address (2) because GCMs do not resolve key features that will mediate global climate change at the local scale. In response, the development of downscaling techniques and models has accelerated to aid decision makers seeking adaptation guidance. However, quantifiable estimates of the value of information are difficult to obtain, particularly in decision contexts characterized by deep uncertainty and low system-controllability. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify the additional value that decision makers could expect if research investments are directed towards developing new downscaled climate projections. As a proof of concept we focus on a real-world management problem: whether to undertake assisted migration for an endangered tropical avian species. We also take advantage of recently published multivariate methods that account for three vexing issues in climate impacts modeling: maximizing climate model quality information, accounting for model dependence in ensembles of opportunity, and deriving probabilistic projections. We expand on these global methods by including regional (Caribbean Basin) and local (Puerto Rico) domains. In the local domain, we test whether a high resolution (2km) dynamically downscaled GCM reduces the multivariate error estimate compared to the original coarse-scale GCM. Initial tests show little difference between the downscaled and original GCM multivariate error. When propagated through to a species population model, the Value of Information analysis indicates that the expected utility that would accrue to the manager (and species) if this downscaling were completed may not justify the cost compared to alternative actions.

  15. Application of Adaptive Decision Aiding Systems to Computer-Assisted Instruction. Final Report, January-December 1974.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    May, Donald M.; And Others

    The minicomputer-based Computerized Diagnostic and Decision Training (CDDT) system described combines the principles of artificial intelligence, decision theory, and adaptive computer assisted instruction for training in electronic troubleshooting. The system incorporates an adaptive computer program which learns the student's diagnostic and…

  16. Using social network analysis to evaluate health-related adaptation decision-making in Cambodia.

    PubMed

    Bowen, Kathryn J; Alexander, Damon; Miller, Fiona; Dany, Va

    2014-01-30

    Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or 'shadow networks') in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance 'map' in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes.

  17. Using Social Network Analysis to Evaluate Health-Related Adaptation Decision-Making in Cambodia

    PubMed Central

    Bowen, Kathryn J.; Alexander, Damon; Miller, Fiona; Dany, Va

    2014-01-01

    Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or ‘shadow networks’) in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance ‘map’ in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes. PMID:24487452

  18. [Decision making satisfaction in health scale: instrument adapted and validated to Portuguese].

    PubMed

    Martinho, Maria Júlia Costa Marques; Martins, Maria Manuela Ferreira Pereira da Silva; Angelo, Margareth

    2014-01-01

    Decision making is an area of health research that has gained importance both for the partnership models of care that give prominence to the patient and family, either by growing concern about quality and customer satisfaction with the care provided. So we decided to make the cultural adaptation and to evaluate the psychometric properties of the Portuguese version "The Satisfaction with Decision Scale" de Holmes-Rovner (1996), which aims to assess satisfaction with the decisions taken in health. The sample consisted of 521 nursing students the School of Nursing of Porto. The results of reliability tests show good internal consistency for the total items (Alpha Cronbach = 0.88). The psychometric study allows us to state that the Portuguese version of "The Satisfaction with Decision Scale", we call "Escala da Satisfação com a Decisão em Saúde", is an instrument comparable with the original in terms of validity and reliability.

  19. Development of an Autodiagnostic Adaptive Precision Trainer for Decision Making (ADAPT-DM)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-06-01

    Similar to other contemporary models relevant to tactical DM, such as Endsley’s (1995) situation awareness model and Klein’s recognition primed decision...experimental psychology from the University of Central Florida. E-mail: Meredith@designinteractive. net SVEN FUCHS is a senior research associate at...studies. She earned a bachelor of arts degree from Flagler College in psychology and Spanish. E-mail: Angela@designinteractive.net DR. KELLY HALE is the

  20. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-05-01

    There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from basic assumptions in the economic analysis and the hydrological model, but also from the projection of future societies to local climate change impacts and suitable adaptation options. This presents a challenge to decision makers when trying to identify robust measures. We present an integrated uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver of risk changes over time. The overall uncertainty is then attributed to six bulk processes: climate change impact, urban rainfall-runoff processes, stage-depth functions, unit cost of repair, cost of adaptation measures, and discount rate. We apply the approach on an urban hydrological catchment in Odense, Denmark, and find that the uncertainty on the climate change impact appears to have the least influence on the net present value of the studied adaptation measures-. This does not imply that the climate change impact is not important, but that the uncertainties are not dominating when deciding on action or in-action. We then consider the uncertainty related to choosing between adaptation options given that a decision of action has been taken. In this case the major part of the

  1. Putting the Economics first: revisiting the interpretation of climate models for adaptation decision-making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranger, N. A.; Smith, L. A.; Stainforth, D.; Millner, A.; Niehoerste, F.

    2009-12-01

    Traditionally, climate change risk assessments have taken a roughly four-stage linear ‘chain’ approach of moving from socioeconomic projections, to climate projections, to primary impacts and then finally onto economic and social impact assessment. Adaptation decisions are then made on the basis of these outputs. The escalation of uncertainty through this chain is well known; resulting in an ‘explosion’ of uncertainties in the final risk assessment. Today, the space of plausible future risk scenarios is growing ever wider with the application of new techniques which aim to explore uncertainty ever more deeply; such as the perturbed physics ensembles used to generate the recent ‘probabilistic’ UK Climate Projections 2009, and the stochastic integrated assessment models, for example PAGE2002. While this uncertainty information is important, the explosion of uncertainty can make decision-making problematic, particularly given that the uncertainty information communicated can not be treated as strictly probabilistic and therefore, is not an easy fit with standard decision-making under uncertainty approaches. Additional problems can arise from the fact that the uncertainty estimated for different components of the ‘chain’ is rarely directly comparable or combinable. Here we demonstrate how ‘putting the economics first’ in risk and adaptation assessments, that is, almost reversing the traditional linear chain of a risk assessment, can collapse the uncertainties. Such an approach forces one to focus on the information requirements for the specific decision, simplifying the assessment. We demonstrate this approach for two case studies: an illustrative coastal village susceptible to storm surge and coastal flooding, and a Caribbean island exposed to wind-related tropical cyclone risks. We reflect on what such a change in approach might mean for the design of climate model experiments for adaptation decision-making.

  2. Hybrid Model Predictive Control for Sequential Decision Policies in Adaptive Behavioral Interventions.

    PubMed

    Dong, Yuwen; Deshpande, Sunil; Rivera, Daniel E; Downs, Danielle S; Savage, Jennifer S

    2014-06-01

    Control engineering offers a systematic and efficient method to optimize the effectiveness of individually tailored treatment and prevention policies known as adaptive or "just-in-time" behavioral interventions. The nature of these interventions requires assigning dosages at categorical levels, which has been addressed in prior work using Mixed Logical Dynamical (MLD)-based hybrid model predictive control (HMPC) schemes. However, certain requirements of adaptive behavioral interventions that involve sequential decision making have not been comprehensively explored in the literature. This paper presents an extension of the traditional MLD framework for HMPC by representing the requirements of sequential decision policies as mixed-integer linear constraints. This is accomplished with user-specified dosage sequence tables, manipulation of one input at a time, and a switching time strategy for assigning dosages at time intervals less frequent than the measurement sampling interval. A model developed for a gestational weight gain (GWG) intervention is used to illustrate the generation of these sequential decision policies and their effectiveness for implementing adaptive behavioral interventions involving multiple components.

  3. Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise.

    PubMed

    Smithson, Michael; Ben-Haim, Yakov

    2015-10-01

    Many real-world planning and decision problems are far too uncertain, too variable, and too complicated to support realistic mathematical models. Nonetheless, we explain the usefulness, in these situations, of qualitative insights from mathematical decision theory. We demonstrate the integration of info-gap robustness in decision problems in which surprise and ignorance are predominant and where personal and collective psychological factors are critical. We present practical guidelines for employing adaptable-choice strategies as a proxy for robustness against uncertainty. These guidelines include being prepared for more surprises than we intuitively expect, retaining sufficiently many options to avoid premature closure and conflicts among preferences, and prioritizing outcomes that are steerable, whose consequences are observable, and that do not entail sunk costs, resource depletion, or high transition costs. We illustrate these concepts and guidelines with the example of the medical management of the 2003 SARS outbreak in Vietnam.

  4. Assessing Affective and Deliberative Decision-Making: Adaptation of the Columbia Card Task to Brazilian Portuguese.

    PubMed

    Kluwe-Schiavon, Bruno; Sanvicente-Vieira, Breno; Viola, Thiago W; Veiga, Eduardo; Bortolotto, Vanessa; Grassi-Oliveira, Rodrigo

    2015-11-20

    The ability to predict reward and punishment is essential for decision-making and the ability to learn about an ever-changing environment. Therefore, efforts have been made in understanding the mechanisms underlying decision-making, especially regarding how affective and deliberative processes interact with risk behavior. To adapt to Brazilian Portuguese the Columbia Card Task (CCT) and investigate affective and deliberative processes involved in decision-making. This study had two main phases: (1) a transcultural adaptation and (2) a pilot study. The feedback manipulation among the three conditions of CCT had an effect on the risk-taking level (p < .005, ES = .201). In addition, the feedback manipulation among the three conditions of CCT had an effect on the information use at both the individual and group levels. Further, a linear regression suggested that the use of information, indicated by the advantageous level of the scenarios, predict the number of cards chosen R 2 = .029, p < .001, accounting for 17% of the variance. The Brazilian CCT performs well and is a versatile method for the assessment of affective and deliberative decision-making under risk according to different feedback manipulation scenarios. This study goes further, comparing electrodermal activity during hot and warm conditions and addressing an advantageous level index analysis to asses deliberative processing.

  5. Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

    PubMed Central

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

  6. Enhanced adaptive management: integrating decision analysis, scenario analysis and environmental modeling for the Everglades.

    PubMed

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A; Linkov, Igor

    2013-10-11

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information.

  7. Neural evidence for adaptive strategy selection in value-based decision-making.

    PubMed

    Gluth, Sebastian; Rieskamp, Jörg; Büchel, Christian

    2014-08-01

    In everyday life, humans often encounter complex environments in which multiple sources of information can influence their decisions. We propose that in such situations, people select and apply different strategies representing different cognitive models of the decision problem. Learning advances by evaluating the success of using a strategy and eventually by switching between strategies. To test our strategy selection model, we investigated how humans solve a dynamic learning task with complex auditory and visual information, and assessed the underlying neural mechanisms with functional magnetic resonance imaging. Using the model, we were able to capture participants' choices and to successfully attribute expected values and reward prediction errors to activations in the dopaminoceptive system (e.g., ventral striatum [VS]) as well as decision conflict to signals in the anterior cingulate cortex. The model outperformed an alternative approach that did not update decision strategies, but the relevance of information itself. Activation of sensory areas depended on whether the selected strategy made use of the respective source of information. Selection of a strategy also determined how value-related information influenced effective connectivity between sensory systems and the VS. Our results suggest that humans can structure their search for and use of relevant information by adaptively selecting between decision strategies. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. A two-neuron system for adaptive goal-directed decision-making in Lymnaea

    PubMed Central

    Crossley, Michael; Staras, Kevin; Kemenes, György

    2016-01-01

    During goal-directed decision-making, animals must integrate information from the external environment and their internal state to maximize resource localization while minimizing energy expenditure. How this complex problem is solved by the nervous system remains poorly understood. Here, using a combined behavioural and neurophysiological approach, we demonstrate that the mollusc Lymnaea performs a sophisticated form of decision-making during food-searching behaviour, using a core system consisting of just two neuron types. The first reports the presence of food and the second encodes motivational state acting as a gain controller for adaptive behaviour in the absence of food. Using an in vitro analogue of the decision-making process, we show that the system employs an energy management strategy, switching between a low- and high-use mode depending on the outcome of the decision. Our study reveals a parsimonious mechanism that drives a complex decision-making process via regulation of levels of tonic inhibition and phasic excitation. PMID:27257106

  9. A two-neuron system for adaptive goal-directed decision-making in Lymnaea.

    PubMed

    Crossley, Michael; Staras, Kevin; Kemenes, György

    2016-06-03

    During goal-directed decision-making, animals must integrate information from the external environment and their internal state to maximize resource localization while minimizing energy expenditure. How this complex problem is solved by the nervous system remains poorly understood. Here, using a combined behavioural and neurophysiological approach, we demonstrate that the mollusc Lymnaea performs a sophisticated form of decision-making during food-searching behaviour, using a core system consisting of just two neuron types. The first reports the presence of food and the second encodes motivational state acting as a gain controller for adaptive behaviour in the absence of food. Using an in vitro analogue of the decision-making process, we show that the system employs an energy management strategy, switching between a low- and high-use mode depending on the outcome of the decision. Our study reveals a parsimonious mechanism that drives a complex decision-making process via regulation of levels of tonic inhibition and phasic excitation.

  10. Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework.

    PubMed

    Tanner-McAllister, Sherri L; Rhodes, Jonathan; Hockings, Marc

    2017-12-15

    Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A Brief Investigation of Adaptive Decision Feedback Equalization for Digital HF Links Employing PSK (Phase Shift Keying) Modulation.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-26

    INVESTIGATION OF ADAPTIVE DECISION FEEDBACK EQUALIZATION FOR DIGITAL HF LINKS EMPLOYING PSKK MODULATION B.E. Sawyer Mission Research Corporation P.O. Drawer 719...Rot FEEDBACK EQUAL Z FOR IGITAL HF LINKS TcnclRpr PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBERMRC-R-801- 7, AUTHORf,, 8. CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMBER(-) Blair E...C’!, -i, e -n rev r- , -de if necessary and identify by block number) PSK Receiver Mitigation Adaptive Equalization Decision Feedback Equalization HF

  12. Mice and rats achieve similar levels of performance in an adaptive decision-making task.

    PubMed

    Jaramillo, Santiago; Zador, Anthony M

    2014-01-01

    Two opposing constraints exist when choosing a model organism for studying the neural basis of adaptive decision-making: (1) experimental access and (2) behavioral complexity. Available molecular and genetic approaches for studying neural circuits in the mouse fulfill the first requirement. In contrast, it is still under debate if mice can perform cognitive tasks of sufficient complexity. Here we compare learning and performance of mice and rats, the preferred behavioral rodent model, during an acoustic flexible categorization two-alternative choice task. The task required animals to switch between two categorization definitions several times within a behavioral session. We found that both species achieved similarly high performance levels. On average, rats learned the task faster than mice, although some mice were as fast as the average rat. No major differences in subjective categorization boundaries or the speed of adaptation between the two species were found. Our results demonstrate that mice are an appropriate model for the study of the neural mechanisms underlying adaptive decision-making, and suggest they might be suitable for other cognitive tasks as well.

  13. Translating Knowledge into Action: Supporting Adaptation in Australia's Coastal Zone through Information Provision and Decision Support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palutikof, J. P.; Rissik, D.; Tonmoy, F. N.; Boulter, S.

    2015-12-01

    Adaptation to risks from climate change and sea-level rise is particularly important in Australia, where 70% of the population live in major coastal cities and 85% within 50km of the coast. Adaptation activity focuses at local government level and, in the absence of strong leadership from central government, the extent to which local councils have taken action to adapt is highly variable across the nation. Also, although a number of councils have proceeded as far as identifying their exposure to risk and considering adaptation options, this fails to translate into action. A principal reason for this is concern over the response from coastal residents to actions which may affect property values, and fear of litigation. A project is underway to support councils to understand their risks, evaluate adaptation options and proceed to action. This support will consist of a three-pronged framework: provision of information, a tool to support decision-making, and a community forum. Delivery involves research to understand the barriers to adaptation and how these may be overcome, optimal methods for delivery of information, and the information needs of organizations, action-takers and communities. The presentation will focus on the results of consultation undertaken to understand users' information needs around content and delivery, and how understanding of these needs has translated into design of the framework. A strongly preference was expressed to learn from peers, and a challenge for the framework is to understand how to inject adaptation knowledge which is up-to-date and accurate into peer-to-peer conversations. The community forum is one mechanism to achieve this. The basic structure and delivery mechanisms of the framework are shown in the attached.

  14. Participation in Decision Making as a Property of Complex Adaptive Systems: Developing and Testing a Measure

    PubMed Central

    Anderson, Ruth A.; Hsieh, Pi-Ching; Su, Hui Fang; Landerman, Lawrence R.; McDaniel, Reuben R.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives. To (1) describe participation in decision-making as a systems-level property of complex adaptive systems and (2) present empirical evidence of reliability and validity of a corresponding measure. Method. Study 1 was a mail survey of a single respondent (administrators or directors of nursing) in each of 197 nursing homes. Study 2 was a field study using random, proportionally stratified sampling procedure that included 195 organizations with 3,968 respondents. Analysis. In Study 1, we analyzed the data to reduce the number of scale items and establish initial reliability and validity. In Study 2, we strengthened the psychometric test using a large sample. Results. Results demonstrated validity and reliability of the participation in decision-making instrument (PDMI) while measuring participation of workers in two distinct job categories (RNs and CNAs). We established reliability at the organizational level aggregated items scores. We established validity of the multidimensional properties using convergent and discriminant validity and confirmatory factor analysis. Conclusions. Participation in decision making, when modeled as a systems-level property of organization, has multiple dimensions and is more complex than is being traditionally measured. Managers can use this model to form decision teams that maximize the depth and breadth of expertise needed and to foster connection among them. PMID:24349771

  15. Adaptive Fuzzy Association Rule mining for effective decision support in biomedical applications.

    PubMed

    He, Yuanchen; Tang, Yuchun; Zhang, Yan-Qing; Sunderraman, Rajshekhar

    2006-01-01

    Due to complexity of biomedical classification problems, it is impossible to build a perfect classifier with 100% prediction accuracy. Hence a more realistic target is to build an effective Decision Support System (DSS). Here 'effective' means that a DSS should not only predict unseen samples accurately, but also work in a human-understandable way. In this paper, we propose a novel adaptive Fuzzy Association Rules (FARs) mining algorithm, named FARM-DS, to build such a DSS for binary classification problems in the biomedical domain. In the training phase, four steps are executed to mine FARs, which are thereafter used to predict unseen samples in the testing phase. The new FARM-DS algorithm is evaluated on two publicly available medical datasets. The experimental results show that FARM-DS is competitive in terms of prediction accuracy. More importantly, the mined FARs provide strong decision support on disease diagnoses due to their easy interpretability.

  16. Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention

    PubMed Central

    Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Gern, Lise; Michel, Pascal; Ravel, André; Hongoh, Valérie; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Milord, François; Bélanger, Denise

    2015-01-01

    Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD) can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or other vector

  17. Impacts of Agricultural Decision Making and Adaptive Management on Food Security in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caylor, K. K.; Evans, T. P.; Estes, L. D.; Sheffield, J.; Plale, B. A.; Attari, S.

    2014-12-01

    Despite massive investments in food aid, agricultural extension, and seed/fertilizer subsidies, nearly 1 billion people in the developing world are food insecure and vulnerable to climate variability. Sub-Saharan Africa is most vulnerable, as approximately 25% of its people are undernourished (FAO/FAOSTAT 2013) and 96% of its cropland is rainfed (FAO 2002). The ability of subsistence farmers to respond to changes in water availability involves both inter-and intra-seasonal adaptation. Adaptive capacity diminishes over the season as decisions are made, resources are used, and the set of possible futures becomes restricted. Assessing the intra-seasonal adaptive capacity of smallholders requires integrating physical models of hydrological and agricultural dynamics with farmer decision-making at fine temporal (e.g. weekly) and spatial (e.g. crop field) scales. However, there is an intrinsic challenge to modeling the dynamics of these sociohydrologic systems, because important and uncharacterized spatial and temporal scale mismatches exist between the level at which the water resource is best understood and the level at which human dynamics are more predictable. For example, the skill of current process-based land surface models is primarily confined to short-term (daily to weekly), national- to regional-scale assessments, and reliable agricultural yield estimates and forecasts for small-scale farming systems remain elusive. In contrast, process-based social science modeling has focused on agent-based approaches that generate fine-scale (individual to community) dynamics over rather coarse time scales (yearly to decadal). A major obstacle to addressing this mismatch is the fundamental fact that the highest skill domain of one framework is essentially unpredictable in the other. We present a coupled sociohydrological observation framework designed to addressing this gap, and demonstrate its utility to understand relationships between climate variability, decision making

  18. Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention.

    PubMed

    Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Gern, Lise; Michel, Pascal; Ravel, André; Hongoh, Valérie; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Milord, François; Bélanger, Denise

    2015-01-01

    Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD) can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or other vector

  19. [Adaptive remodeling of temporomandibular joint following anterior disc displacement and treatment decision making].

    PubMed

    Gu, Z Y

    2017-03-09

    Anterior disc displacement (ADD) of temporomandibular joint (TMJ) is one of the common oral diseases. The TMJ can be remodeled after disc displacement. The author's recent studies show that remodeled bilaminar zone is similar to the disc in composition and functions. The remodeled condyle can match the disc-like bilaminar zone. The new disc-condylar relationship can, to a certain extent, restore the function of the TMJ. Based on these studies, the author believes that the adaptive remodeling in TMJ has important guiding significance for clinical treatment and discusses the views of the treatment decision for various stages of temporomandibular disorders.

  20. Adaptive channel estimation for soft decision decoding over non-Gaussian optical channel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiang, Jing-song; Miao, Tao-tao; Huang, Sheng; Liu, Huan-lin

    2016-10-01

    An adaptive priori likelihood ratio (LLR) estimation method is proposed over non-Gaussian channel in the intensity modulation/direct detection (IM/DD) optical communication systems. Using the nonparametric histogram and the weighted least square linear fitting in the tail regions, the LLR is estimated and used for the soft decision decoding of the low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes. This method can adapt well to the three main kinds of intensity modulation/direct detection (IM/DD) optical channel, i.e., the chi-square channel, the Webb-Gaussian channel and the additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel. The performance penalty of channel estimation is neglected.

  1. Monitoring in the context of structured decision-making and adaptive management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lyons, J.E.; Runge, M.C.; Laskowski, H.P.; Kendall, W.L.

    2008-01-01

    In a natural resource management setting, monitoring is a crucial component of an informed process for making decisions, and monitoring design should be driven by the decision context and associated uncertainties. Monitoring itself can play >3 roles. First, it is important for state-dependent decision-making, as when managers need to know the system state before deciding on the appropriate course of action during the ensuing management cycle. Second, monitoring is critical for evaluating the effectiveness of management actions relative to objectives. Third, in an adaptive management setting, monitoring provides the feedback loop for learning about the system; learning is sought not for its own sake but primarily to better achieve management objectives. In this case, monitoring should be designed to reduce the critical uncertainties in models of the managed system. The United States Geological Survey and United States Fish and Wildlife Service are conducting a large-scale management experiment on 23 National Wildlife Refuges across the Northeast and Midwest Regions. The primary management objective is to provide habitat for migratory waterbirds, particularly during migration, using water-level manipulations in managed wetlands. Key uncertainties are related to the potential trade-offs created by management for a specific waterbird guild (e.g., migratory shorebirds) and the response of waterbirds, plant communities, and invertebrates to specific experimental hydroperiods. We reviewed the monitoring program associated with this study, and the ways that specific observations fill >1 of the roles identified above. We used observations from our monitoring to improve state-dependent decisions to control undesired plants, to evaluate management performance relative to shallow-water habitat objectives, and to evaluate potential trade-offs between waterfowl and shorebird habitat management. With limited staff and budgets, management agencies need efficient monitoring

  2. Functional Assessment of Genetic Variants with Outcomes Adapted to Clinical Decision-Making

    PubMed Central

    Thouvenot, Pierre; Ben Yamin, Barbara; Fourrière, Lou; Lescure, Aurianne; Boudier, Thomas; Del Nery, Elaine; Chauchereau, Anne; Goldgar, David E.; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Nicolas, Alain; Millot, Gaël A.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the medical effect of an ever-growing number of human variants detected is a long term challenge in genetic counseling. Functional assays, based on in vitro or in vivo evaluations of the variant effects, provide essential information, but they require robust statistical validation, as well as adapted outputs, to be implemented in the clinical decision-making process. Here, we assessed 25 pathogenic and 15 neutral missense variants of the BRCA1 breast/ovarian cancer susceptibility gene in four BRCA1 functional assays. Next, we developed a novel approach that refines the variant ranking in these functional assays. Lastly, we developed a computational system that provides a probabilistic classification of variants, adapted to clinical interpretation. Using this system, the best functional assay exhibits a variant classification accuracy estimated at 93%. Additional theoretical simulations highlight the benefit of this ready-to-use system in the classification of variants after functional assessment, which should facilitate the consideration of functional evidences in the decision-making process after genetic testing. Finally, we demonstrate the versatility of the system with the classification of siRNAs tested for human cell growth inhibition in high throughput screening. PMID:27272900

  3. Cultural and Linguistic Adaptation of a Multimedia Colorectal Cancer Screening Decision Aid for Spanish Speaking Latinos

    PubMed Central

    Ko, Linda K.; Reuland, Daniel; Jolles, Monica; Clay, Rebecca; Pignone, Michael

    2014-01-01

    As the United States becomes more linguistically and culturally diverse, there is a need for effective health communication interventions that target diverse and most vulnerable populations. Latinos also have the lowest colorectal (CRC) screening rates of any ethnic group in the U.S. To address such disparities, health communication interventionists are often faced with the challenge to adapt existing interventions from English into Spanish in a way that retains essential elements of the original intervention while also addressing the linguistic needs and cultural perspectives of the target population. We describe the conceptual framework, context, rationale, methods, and findings of a formative research process used in creating a Spanish language version of an evidenced-based (English language) multimedia CRC screening decision aid. Our multi-step process included identification of essential elements of the existing intervention, literature review, assessment of the regional context and engagement of key stakeholders, and solicitation of direct input from target population. We integrated these findings in the creation of the new adapted intervention. We describe how we used this process to identify and integrate socio-cultural themes such as personalism (personalismo), familism (familismo), fear (miedo), embarrassment (verguenza), power distance (respeto), machismo, and trust (confianza) into the Spanish language decision aid. PMID:24328496

  4. Climate Change Adaptation Decision Making for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Palcacocha Lake in Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cuellar, A. D.; McKinney, D. C.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change has accelerated glacial retreat in high altitude glaciated regions of Peru leading to the growth and formation of glacier lakes. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) are sudden events triggered by an earthquake, avalanche into the lake or other shock that causes a sudden outflow of water. These floods are catastrophic because of their sudden onset, the difficulty predicting them, and enormous quantity of water and debris rapidly flooding downstream areas. Palcacocha Lake in the Peruvian Andes has experienced accelerated growth since it burst in 1941 and threatens the major city of Huaraz and surrounding communities. Since the 1941 flood stakeholders have advocated for projects to adapt to the increasing threat posed by Palcacocha Lake. Nonetheless, discussions surrounding projects for Palcacocha have not included a rigorous analysis of the potential consequences of a flood, probability of an event, or costs of mitigation projects. This work presents the first step to rationally analyze the risks posed by Palcacocha Lake and the various adaptation projects proposed. In this work the authors use decision analysis to asses proposed adaptation measures that would mitigate damage in downstream communities from a GLOF. We use an existing hydrodynamic model of the at-risk area to determine how adaptation projects will affect downstream flooding. Flood characteristics are used in the HEC-FIA software to estimate fatalities and injuries from an outburst flood, which we convert to monetary units using the value of a statistical life. We combine the monetary consequences of a GLOF with the cost of the proposed projects and a diffuse probability distribution for the likelihood of an event to estimate the expected cost of the adaptation plans. From this analysis we found that lowering the lake level by 15 meters has the least expected cost of any proposal despite uncertainty in the effect of lake lowering on flooding downstream.

  5. Introduction of new technologies and decision making processes: a framework to adapt a Local Health Technology Decision Support Program for other local settings

    PubMed Central

    Poulin, Paule; Austen, Lea; Scott, Catherine M; Poulin, Michelle; Gall, Nadine; Seidel, Judy; Lafrenière, René

    2013-01-01

    Purpose Introducing new health technologies, including medical devices, into a local setting in a safe, effective, and transparent manner is a complex process, involving many disciplines and players within an organization. Decision making should be systematic, consistent, and transparent. It should involve translating and integrating scientific evidence, such as health technology assessment (HTA) reports, with context-sensitive evidence to develop recommendations on whether and under what conditions a new technology will be introduced. However, the development of a program to support such decision making can require considerable time and resources. An alternative is to adapt a preexisting program to the new setting. Materials and methods We describe a framework for adapting the Local HTA Decision Support Program, originally developed by the Department of Surgery and Surgical Services (Calgary, AB, Canada), for use by other departments. The framework consists of six steps: 1) development of a program review and adaptation manual, 2) education and readiness assessment of interested departments, 3) evaluation of the program by individual departments, 4) joint evaluation via retreats, 5) synthesis of feedback and program revision, and 6) evaluation of the adaptation process. Results Nine departments revised the Local HTA Decision Support Program and expressed strong satisfaction with the adaptation process. Key elements for success were identified. Conclusion Adaptation of a preexisting program may reduce duplication of effort, save resources, raise the health care providers’ awareness of HTA, and foster constructive stakeholder engagement, which enhances the legitimacy of evidence-informed recommendations for introducing new health technologies. We encourage others to use this framework for program adaptation and to report their experiences. PMID:24273415

  6. Introduction of new technologies and decision making processes: a framework to adapt a Local Health Technology Decision Support Program for other local settings.

    PubMed

    Poulin, Paule; Austen, Lea; Scott, Catherine M; Poulin, Michelle; Gall, Nadine; Seidel, Judy; Lafrenière, René

    2013-01-01

    Introducing new health technologies, including medical devices, into a local setting in a safe, effective, and transparent manner is a complex process, involving many disciplines and players within an organization. Decision making should be systematic, consistent, and transparent. It should involve translating and integrating scientific evidence, such as health technology assessment (HTA) reports, with context-sensitive evidence to develop recommendations on whether and under what conditions a new technology will be introduced. However, the development of a program to support such decision making can require considerable time and resources. An alternative is to adapt a preexisting program to the new setting. We describe a framework for adapting the Local HTA Decision Support Program, originally developed by the Department of Surgery and Surgical Services (Calgary, AB, Canada), for use by other departments. The framework consists of six steps: 1) development of a program review and adaptation manual, 2) education and readiness assessment of interested departments, 3) evaluation of the program by individual departments, 4) joint evaluation via retreats, 5) synthesis of feedback and program revision, and 6) evaluation of the adaptation process. Nine departments revised the Local HTA Decision Support Program and expressed strong satisfaction with the adaptation process. Key elements for success were identified. Adaptation of a preexisting program may reduce duplication of effort, save resources, raise the health care providers' awareness of HTA, and foster constructive stakeholder engagement, which enhances the legitimacy of evidence-informed recommendations for introducing new health technologies. We encourage others to use this framework for program adaptation and to report their experiences.

  7. The Adaptability of Career Decision-Making Profiles: Associations with Self-Efficacy, Emotional Difficulties, and Decision Status

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Wagman-Rolnick, Halleli

    2013-01-01

    The present study investigated a new model for characterizing the way individuals make career decisions (career decision-making profiles [CDMP]). Using data from 285 students in a preacademic program, the present study assessed the association of the CDMP's dimensions with the Emotional and Personality-related Career decision-making Difficulties…

  8. The Adaptability of Career Decision-Making Profiles: Associations with Self-Efficacy, Emotional Difficulties, and Decision Status

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Wagman-Rolnick, Halleli

    2013-01-01

    The present study investigated a new model for characterizing the way individuals make career decisions (career decision-making profiles [CDMP]). Using data from 285 students in a preacademic program, the present study assessed the association of the CDMP's dimensions with the Emotional and Personality-related Career decision-making Difficulties…

  9. Facilitating adaptive management in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed through the use of online decision support tools

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mullinx, Cassandra; Phillips, Scott; Shenk, Kelly; Hearn, Paul; Devereux, Olivia

    2009-01-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is attempting to more strategically implement management actions to improve the health of the Nation’s largest estuary. In 2007 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) CBP office began a joint effort to develop a suite of Internetaccessible decision-support tools and to help meet the needs of CBP partners to improve water quality and habitat conditions in the Chesapeake Bay and its watersheds. An adaptive management framework is being used to provide a structured decision process for information and individual tools needed to implement and assess practices to improve the condition of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The Chesapeake Online Adaptive Support Toolkit (COAST) is a collection of web-based analytical tools and information, organized in an adaptive management framework, intended to aid decisionmakers in protecting and restoring the integrity of the Bay ecosystem. The initial version of COAST is focused on water quality issues. During early and mid- 2008, initial ideas for COAST were shared and discussed with various CBP partners and other potential user groups. At these meetings, test cases were selected to help improve understanding of the types of information and analytical functionality that would be most useful for specific partners’ needs. These discussions added considerable knowledge about the nature of decisionmaking for Federal, State, local and nongovernmental partners. Version 1.0 of COAST, released in early winter of 2008, will be further reviewed to determine improvements needed to address implementation and assessment of water quality practices. Future versions of COAST may address other aspects of ecosystem restoration, including restoration of habitat and living resources and maintaining watershed health.

  10. [Spanish version of the Satisfaction With Decision scale: cross-cultural adaptation, validity and reliability].

    PubMed

    Chabrera, Carolina; Areal, Joan; Font, Albert; Caro, Mónica; Bonet, Marta; Zabalegui, Adelaida

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to develop a Spanish version of the Satisfaction With Decision scale (SWDs) and analyse the psychometric properties of validity and reliability. An observational, descriptive study and validation of a tool to measure satisfaction with the decision. Urology, Radiation oncology, and Medical oncology Departments of the Hospital Universitari Germans Trias i Pujol, Institut Català d'Oncologia and the Institut Oncològic del Vallès - Hospital General de Catalunya. A total of 170 participants diagnosed with prostate cancer, and who could read and write in Spanish and gave their informed consent. A translation, back-translation and cross-cultural adaptation to Spanish was performed on the SWDs. The content validity, criterion validity, construct validity and reliability (internal consistency and stability) of the Spanish version were evaluated. The SWDs contains 6 items with 5-item Likert scales. A Spanish version (ESD) was obtained that was linguistically and conceptually equivalent to the original version. Criterion validity, the ESD correlated with "satisfaction with the decision" using a linear analogue scale, was significant (r=0.63, P<.01) for all items. The factorial analysis showed a unique dimension to explain 82.08% of the variance. The ESD showed excellent results in terms of internal consistency (Cronbach alpha=0.95) and good test-retest reliability with intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.711. The ESD is a validated Spanish scale to measure the satisfaction with the decisions taken in health, and demonstrates a correct validity and reliability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  11. The Business of Co-Production: Assessing Efforts to Bridge Science and Decision-Making for Adaptation in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webber, S.; MacDonald, G. M.

    2016-12-01

    The last decades have seen scholars argue for a greater integration of science and decision-making in order to more effectively respond to climate change. It has been suggested that overcoming the gap between science, on the one hand, and policy-making and management, on the other, requires building bridges through methods of co-production, creating actionable science, or through boundary organizations. In this paper, we review attempts at co-production for policy-making and management in the context of climate change adaptation in California. Building on field research, including numerous interviews conducted with scientists and decision-makers who are co-producers of adaptation projects, we make three arguments. First, we show that an emphasis on co-production and science-informed climate change adaptation decision-making has bolstered a contract-oriented, and decentralized network-based model of producing climate science. Second, reviewing successes and failures in co-production - as reported in interviews - indicates that it is principally in cases of neatly defined, and spatially and temporarily narrow decision-making contexts, and with highly motivated decision-makers, that climate science is used. Finally, we suggest that the ideas of co-production and actionable science may have increased the institutional and organizational burden at the science-decision interface, lengthening the boundary-organization-chain rather than necessarily facilitating adaptive policy-making and management.

  12. Coastal Adaptation Planning for Sea Level Rise and Extremes: A Global Model for Adaptation Decision-making at the Local Level Given Uncertain Climate Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, D.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the potential economic and physical impacts of climate change on coastal resources involves evaluating a number of distinct adaptive responses. This paper presents a tool for such analysis, a spatially-disaggregated optimization model for adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge, the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM). This decision-making framework fills a gap between very detailed studies of specific locations and overly aggregate global analyses. While CIAM is global in scope, the optimal adaptation strategy is determined at the local level, evaluating over 12,000 coastal segments as described in the DIVA database (Vafeidis et al. 2006). The decision to pursue a given adaptation measure depends on local socioeconomic factors like income, population, and land values and how they develop over time, relative to the magnitude of potential coastal impacts, based on geophysical attributes like inundation zones and storm surge. For example, the model's decision to protect or retreat considers the costs of constructing and maintaining coastal defenses versus those of relocating people and capital to minimize damages from land inundation and coastal storms. Uncertain storm surge events are modeled with a generalized extreme value distribution calibrated to data on local surge extremes. Adaptation is optimized for the near-term outlook, in an "act then learn then act" framework that is repeated over the model time horizon. This framework allows the adaptation strategy to be flexibly updated, reflecting the process of iterative risk management. CIAM provides new estimates of the economic costs of SLR; moreover, these detailed results can be compactly represented in a set of adaptation and damage functions for use in integrated assessment models. Alongside the optimal result, CIAM evaluates suboptimal cases and finds that global costs could increase by an order of magnitude, illustrating the importance of adaptive capacity and coastal policy.

  13. Flexible and adaptive water systems operations through more informed and dynamic decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.

    2016-12-01

    Timely adapting the operations of water systems to be resilient against rapid changes in both hydroclimatic and socioeconomic forcing is generally recommended as a part of planning and managing water resources under uncertain futures. A great opportunity to make the operations more flexible and adaptive is offered by the unprecedented amount of information that is becoming available to water system operators, providing a wide range of data at increasingly higher temporal and spatial resolution. Yet, many water systems are still operated using very simple information systems, typically based on basic statistical analysis and the operator's experience. In this work, we discuss the potential offered by incorporating improved information to enhance water systems operation and increase their ability of adapting to different external conditions and resolving potential conflicts across sectors. In particular, we focus on the use of different variables associated to different dynamics of the system (slow and fast) diversely impacting the operating objectives on the short-, medium- and long-term. The multi-purpose operations of the Hoa Binh reservoir in the Red River Basin (Vietnam) is used to demonstrate our approach. Numerical results show that our procedure is able to automatically select the most valuable information for improving the Hoa Binh operations and mitigating the conflict between short-term objectives, i.e. hydropower production and flood control. Moreover, we also successfully identify low-frequency climate information associated to El-Nino Southern Oscillation for improving the performance in terms of long-term objectives, i.e. water supply. Finally, we assess the value of better informing operational decisions for adapting the system operations to changing conditions by considering different climate change projections.

  14. CALM: Complex Adaptive System (CAS)-Based Decision Support for Enabling Organizational Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adler, Richard M.; Koehn, David J.

    Guiding organizations through transformational changes such as restructuring or adopting new technologies is a daunting task. Such changes generate workforce uncertainty, fear, and resistance, reducing morale, focus and performance. Conventional project management techniques fail to mitigate these disruptive effects, because social and individual changes are non-mechanistic, organic phenomena. CALM (for Change, Adaptation, Learning Model) is an innovative decision support system for enabling change based on CAS principles. CALM provides a low risk method for validating and refining change strategies that combines scenario planning techniques with "what-if" behavioral simulation. In essence, CALM "test drives" change strategies before rolling them out, allowing organizations to practice and learn from virtual rather than actual mistakes. This paper describes the CALM modeling methodology, including our metrics for measuring organizational readiness to respond to change and other major CALM scenario elements: prospective change strategies; alternate futures; and key situational dynamics. We then describe CALM's simulation engine for projecting scenario outcomes and its associated analytics. CALM's simulator unifies diverse behavioral simulation paradigms including: adaptive agents; system dynamics; Monte Carlo; event- and process-based techniques. CALM's embodiment of CAS dynamics helps organizations reduce risk and improve confidence and consistency in critical strategies for enabling transformations.

  15. Cultural adaptation and linguistic validation of the Family Decision Making Self Efficacy Scale (FDMSES).

    PubMed

    Limardi, S; Rocco, G; Stievano, A; Vellone, E; Valle, A; Torino, F; Alvaro, R

    2014-01-01

    Nurses, following their ethical mandate, collaborate with other health and social professionals or people involved in caring activities. Caregivers in this context are becoming more and more significant for the family or the cared person, who for their stable presence and emotional proximity play a pivotal caring role. To maximize the contribution of caregivers, objective tools that emphasize their skill sets are necessary. The cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the Family Decision Making Self-Efficacy Scale is part of a larger project aimed at understanding the resilience of caregivers in the field of palliative care. Self-efficacy is one of the aspects of personality most closely associated with resilience. Self-efficacy is shown in a specific context, therefore, its study and evaluation of its level, require capabilities that enable individuals perceive themselves as effective in a particular circumstance. The Family Decision Making Self- Efficacy Scale assesses the behavior of caregivers of patients at the end of their life. The Family Decision Making Self-Efficacy Scale was translated (forward and back translation) and was adapted to the Italian clinical cultural setting by a research team that included experts in palliative care, native translators with experience in nursing and experts in nursing. A consensus on the wording of each item in relation to semantic, idiomatic, experiential and conceptual equivalence was sought. The clarity of the wording and the pertinence of the items of the scenario with the conscious patient and with the unconscious patient were evaluated by a group of caregivers who tested the instrument. The Italian version of the instrument included 12 items for the scenario with the conscious patient and 12 for the scenario with the unconscious patient. The working group expressed consensus on the pretesting version of the instrument. The pre-testing version of the scale was tested on 60 caregivers, 47 taking care of conscious

  16. Identifying Decision-Makers’ Science Needs for Adaptation to Climate-Related Impacts on Forest Ecosystem Services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gordon, E.; Lukas, J.

    2009-12-01

    Through the Western Water Assessment RISA program, we are conducting a research project that will produce science synthesis information to help local, state, and federal decision-makers in Colorado and Wyoming develop adaptation strategies to deal with climate-related threats to forest ecosystem services, in particular bark beetle infestations and stand-replacing wildfires. We begin by using the problem orientation framework, a policy sciences methodology, to understand how decision-makers can most effectively address policy problems that threaten the attainment of socially accepted goals. By applying this framework to the challenges facing decision-makers, we more accurately identify specific areas where scientific research can improve decision-making. WWA researchers will next begin to connect decision-makers with relevant scientific literature and identify specific areas of future scientific research that will be most effective at addressing their needs.

  17. Decision Support from Local Data: Creating Adaptive Order Menus from Past Clinician Behavior

    PubMed Central

    Klann, Jeffrey G.; Szolovits, Peter; Downs, Stephen; Schadow, Gunther

    2014-01-01

    Objective Reducing care variability through guidelines has significantly benefited patients. Nonetheless, guideline-based clinical decision support (CDS) systems are not widely implemented or used, are frequently out-of-date, and cannot address complex care for which guidelines do not exist. Here, we develop and evaluate a complementary approach - using Bayesian network (BN) learning to generate adaptive, context-specific treatment menus based on local order-entry data. These menus can be used as a draft for expert review, in order to minimize development time for local decision support content. This is in keeping with the vision outlined in the US Health Information Technology Strategic Plan, which describes a healthcare system that learns from itself. Materials and Methods We used the Greedy Equivalence Search algorithm to learn four 50-node domain-specific BNs from 11,344 encounters: abdominal pain in the emergency department, inpatient pregnancy, hypertension in the urgent visit clinic, and altered mental state in the intensive care unit. We developed a system to produce situation-specific, rank-ordered treatment menus from these networks. We evaluated this system with a hospital-simulation methodology and computed Area Under the Receiver-Operator Curve (AUC) and average menu position at time of selection. We also compared this system with a similar association-rule-mining approach. Results A short order menu on average contained the next order (weighted average length 3.91–5.83 items). Overall predictive ability was good: average AUC above 0.9 for 25% of order types and overall average AUC .714–.844 (depending on domain). However, AUC had high variance (.50–.99). Higher AUC correlated with tighter clusters and more connections in the graphs, indicating importance of appropriate contextual data. Comparison with an association rule mining approach showed similar performance for only the most common orders with dramatic divergence as orders are less

  18. Decision support from local data: creating adaptive order menus from past clinician behavior.

    PubMed

    Klann, Jeffrey G; Szolovits, Peter; Downs, Stephen M; Schadow, Gunther

    2014-04-01

    Reducing care variability through guidelines has significantly benefited patients. Nonetheless, guideline-based Clinical Decision Support (CDS) systems are not widely implemented or used, are frequently out-of-date, and cannot address complex care for which guidelines do not exist. Here, we develop and evaluate a complementary approach - using Bayesian Network (BN) learning to generate adaptive, context-specific treatment menus based on local order-entry data. These menus can be used as a draft for expert review, in order to minimize development time for local decision support content. This is in keeping with the vision outlined in the US Health Information Technology Strategic Plan, which describes a healthcare system that learns from itself. We used the Greedy Equivalence Search algorithm to learn four 50-node domain-specific BNs from 11,344 encounters: abdominal pain in the emergency department, inpatient pregnancy, hypertension in the Urgent Visit Clinic, and altered mental state in the intensive care unit. We developed a system to produce situation-specific, rank-ordered treatment menus from these networks. We evaluated this system with a hospital-simulation methodology and computed Area Under the Receiver-Operator Curve (AUC) and average menu position at time of selection. We also compared this system with a similar association-rule-mining approach. A short order menu on average contained the next order (weighted average length 3.91-5.83 items). Overall predictive ability was good: average AUC above 0.9 for 25% of order types and overall average AUC .714-.844 (depending on domain). However, AUC had high variance (.50-.99). Higher AUC correlated with tighter clusters and more connections in the graphs, indicating importance of appropriate contextual data. Comparison with an Association Rule Mining approach showed similar performance for only the most common orders with dramatic divergence as orders are less frequent. This study demonstrates that local clinical

  19. Adaptive Management for Decision Making at the Program and Project Levels of the Missouri River Recovery Program

    SciTech Connect

    Thom, Ronald M.; Anderson, Michael G.; Tyre, Drew; Fleming, Craig A.

    2009-02-28

    The paper, “Adaptive Management: Background for Stakeholders in the Missouri River Recovery Program,” introduced the concept of adaptive management (AM), its principles and how they relate to one-another, how AM is applied, and challenges for its implementation. This companion paper describes how the AM principles were applied to specific management actions within the Missouri River Recovery Program to facilitate understanding, decision-making, and stakeholder engagement. For context, we begin with a brief synopsis of the Missouri River Recovery Program (MRRP) and the strategy for implementing adaptive management (AM) within the program; we finish with an example of AM in action within Phase I of the MRPP.

  20. Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy: Partnering with Decision-Makers in Climate Change Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, D.; Trainor, S.; Walsh, J.; Gerlach, C.

    2008-12-01

    The Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP; www.uaf.edu/accap) is one of several, NOAA funded, Regional Integrated Science and Policy (RISA) programs nation-wide (http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/). Our mission is to assess the socio-economic and biophysical impacts of climate variability in Alaska, make this information available to local and regional decision-makers, and improve the ability of Alaskans to adapt to a changing climate. We partner with the University of Alaska?s Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP; http://www.snap.uaf.edu/), state and local government, state and federal agencies, industry, and non-profit organizations to communicate accurate and up-to-date climate science and assist in formulating adaptation and mitigation plans. ACCAP and SNAP scientists are members of the Governor?s Climate Change Sub-Cabinet Adaptation and Mitigation Advisory and Technical Working Groups (http://www.climatechange.alaska.gov/), and apply their scientific expertise to provide down-scaled, state-wide maps of temperature and precipitation projections for these groups. An ACCAP scientist also serves as co-chair for the Fairbanks North Star Borough Climate Change Task Force, assisting this group as they work through the five-step model for climate change planning put forward by the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (http://www.investfairbanks.com/Taskforces/climate.php). ACCAP scientists work closely with federal resource managers in on a range of projects including: partnering with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to analyze hydrologic changes associated with climate change and related ecological impacts and wildlife management and development issues on Alaska?s North Slope; partnering with members of the Alaska Interagency Wildland Fire Coordinating Group in statistical modeling to predict seasonal wildfire activity and coordinate fire suppression resources state-wide; and working with Alaska Native Elders and

  1. The Role of Decision Support in Adapting to Climate Change: Findings from Three Place-based Regional Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report summarizes the methodologies and findings of three regional assessments and considers the role of decision support in assisting adaptation to climate change. Background. In conjunction with the US Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP’s) National Assessment of ...

  2. Lessons learned from adapting a generic narrative diabetic-foot guideline to an institutional decision-support system.

    PubMed

    Peleg, Mor; Wang, Dongwen; Fodor, Adriana; Keren, Sagi; Karnieli, Eddy

    2008-01-01

    Clinical guidelines usually need to be adapted to fit local practice before they can be actually used by clinicians. Reasons for adaptation include variations of institution setting such as type of practice and location, availability of resources, differences in patient populations, local policies, and practice patterns. When a guideline is implemented for clinical decision support and integrated with an institution's clinical information system, the data model of the local electronic medical record (EMR) and the data actually collected and stored in it also influence the guideline's adaptation. The purpose of this work is: (1) to characterize a tool-supported process for guideline encoding that addresses local adaptation and EMR integration, and (2) to identify the types of changes in guideline encoding during the local adaptation process.

  3. An adaptive decision framework for the conservation of a threatened plant

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moore, Clinton T.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Shea, Katriona; Lah, Kristopher J.; McKenzie, Paul M.; Ball, Lianne C.; Runge, Michael C.; Alexander, Helen M.

    2011-01-01

    Mead's milkweed Asclepias meadii, a long-lived perennial herb of tallgrass prairie and glade communities of the central United States, is a species designated as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Challenges to its successful management include the facts that much about its life history is unknown, its age at reproductive maturity is very advanced, certain life stages are practically unobservable, its productivity is responsive to unpredictable environmental events, and most of the known populations occur on private lands unprotected by any legal conservation instrument. One critical source of biological uncertainty is the degree to which fire promotes growth and reproductive response in the plant. To aid in its management, we developed a prototype population-level state-dependent decision-making framework that explicitly accounts for this uncertainty and for uncertainties related to stochastic environmental effects and vital rates. To parameterize the decision model, we used estimates found in the literature, and we analyzed data from a long-term monitoring program where fates of individual plants were observed through time. We demonstrate that different optimal courses of action are followed according to how one believes that fire influences reproductive response, and we show that the action taken for certain population states is informative for resolving uncertainty about competing beliefs regarding the effect of fire. We advocate the use of a model-predictive approach for the management of rare populations, particularly when management uncertainty is profound. Over time, an adaptive management approach should reduce uncertainty and improve management performance as predictions of management outcome generated under competing models are continually informed and updated by monitoring data.

  4. Informing Adaptation Decisions: What Do We Need to Know and What Do We Need to Do?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulwarty, R. S.; Webb, R. S.

    2014-12-01

    The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC Reports (SREX, AR5) and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for better information to support planning under changing rates of extremes event occurrence. This demand has focused on mechanisms used to respond to past variability and change, including, integrated resource management (watersheds, coasts), infrastructure design, information systems, technological optimization, financial risk management, and behavioral and institutional change. Climate inputs range from static site design statistics (return periods) to dynamic, emergent thresholds and transitions preceded by steep response curves and punctuated equilibria. Tradeoffs are evident in the use of risk-based anticipatory strategies vs. resilience measures. In such settings, annual decision calendars for operational requirements can confound adaptation expectations. Key knowledge assessment questions include: (1) How predictable are potential impacts of events in the context of other stressors, (2) how is action to anticipate such impacts informed, and (3) How often should criteria for "robustness" be reconsidered? To illustrate, we will discuss the climate information needs and uses for two areas of concern for both short and long-term risks (i) climate and disaster risk financing, and (ii) watershed management. The presentation will focus on the climate information needed for (1) improved monitoring, modeling and methods for understanding and analyzing exposure risks, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds across climate time and space scales, (4) embedding annual decision calendars in the context of longer-term risk management, (5) gaming experiments to show the net benefits of new information. We will conclude with a discussion of the essential climate variables needed to implement services-delivery and development efforts such

  5. Usability Testing and Adaptation of the Pediatric Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Clinical Decision Support Tool.

    PubMed

    Williams, Pamela A; Furberg, Robert D; Bagwell, Jacqueline E; LaBresh, Kenneth A

    2016-06-21

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is 1 of the leading causes of death, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted years of life lost worldwide. CVD prevention for children and teens is needed, as CVD risk factors and behaviors beginning in youth contribute to CVD development. In 2012, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute released their "Integrated Guidelines for Cardiovascular Health and Risk Reduction in Children and Adolescents" for clinicians, describing CVD risk factors they should address with patients at primary care preventative visits. However, uptake of new guidelines is slow. Clinical decision support (CDS) tools can improve guideline uptake. In this paper, we describe our process of testing and adapting a CDS tool to help clinicians evaluate patient risk, recommend behaviors to prevent development of risk, and complete complex calculations to determine appropriate interventions as recommended by the guidelines, using a user-centered design approach. The objective of the study was to assess the usability of a pediatric CVD risk factor tool by clinicians. The tool was tested using one-on-one in-person testing and a "think aloud" approach with 5 clinicians and by using the tool in clinical practice along with formal usability metrics with 14 pediatricians. Thematic analysis of the data from the in-person testing and clinical practice testing identified suggestions for change in 3 major areas: user experience, content refinement, and technical deployment. Descriptive statistical techniques were employed to summarize users' overall experience with the tool. Data from testers showed that general reactions toward the CDS tool were positive. Clinical practice testers suggested revisions to make the application more user-friendly, especially for clinicians using the application on the iPhone, and called for refining recommendations to be more succinct and better tailored to the patient. Tester feedback was incorporated into the design when feasible

  6. Usability Testing and Adaptation of the Pediatric Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Clinical Decision Support Tool

    PubMed Central

    Furberg, Robert D; Bagwell, Jacqueline E; LaBresh, Kenneth A

    2016-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is 1 of the leading causes of death, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted years of life lost worldwide. CVD prevention for children and teens is needed, as CVD risk factors and behaviors beginning in youth contribute to CVD development. In 2012, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute released their “Integrated Guidelines for Cardiovascular Health and Risk Reduction in Children and Adolescents” for clinicians, describing CVD risk factors they should address with patients at primary care preventative visits. However, uptake of new guidelines is slow. Clinical decision support (CDS) tools can improve guideline uptake. In this paper, we describe our process of testing and adapting a CDS tool to help clinicians evaluate patient risk, recommend behaviors to prevent development of risk, and complete complex calculations to determine appropriate interventions as recommended by the guidelines, using a user-centered design approach. Objective The objective of the study was to assess the usability of a pediatric CVD risk factor tool by clinicians. Methods The tool was tested using one-on-one in-person testing and a “think aloud” approach with 5 clinicians and by using the tool in clinical practice along with formal usability metrics with 14 pediatricians. Thematic analysis of the data from the in-person testing and clinical practice testing identified suggestions for change in 3 major areas: user experience, content refinement, and technical deployment. Descriptive statistical techniques were employed to summarize users’ overall experience with the tool. Results Data from testers showed that general reactions toward the CDS tool were positive. Clinical practice testers suggested revisions to make the application more user-friendly, especially for clinicians using the application on the iPhone, and called for refining recommendations to be more succinct and better tailored to the patient. Tester feedback was

  7. Adaptive Flexibility and Maladaptive Routines in Selecting Fast and Frugal Decision Strategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Broder, Arndt; Schiffer, Stefanie

    2006-01-01

    Decision routines unburden the cognitive capacity of the decision maker. In changing environments, however, routines may become maladaptive. In 2 experiments with a hypothetical stock market game (n = 241), the authors tested whether decision routines tend to persist at the level of decision strategies rather than at the level of options in…

  8. Adaptive Flexibility and Maladaptive Routines in Selecting Fast and Frugal Decision Strategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Broder, Arndt; Schiffer, Stefanie

    2006-01-01

    Decision routines unburden the cognitive capacity of the decision maker. In changing environments, however, routines may become maladaptive. In 2 experiments with a hypothetical stock market game (n = 241), the authors tested whether decision routines tend to persist at the level of decision strategies rather than at the level of options in…

  9. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data.

    PubMed

    Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H

    2011-01-07

    No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the

  10. Adaptive reward pursuit: how effort requirements affect unconscious reward responses and conscious reward decisions.

    PubMed

    Bijleveld, Erik; Custers, Ruud; Aarts, Henk

    2012-11-01

    When in pursuit of rewards, humans weigh the value of potential rewards against the amount of effort that is required to attain them. Although previous research has generally conceptualized this process as a deliberate calculation, recent work suggests that rudimentary mechanisms-operating without conscious intervention-play an important role as well. In this article, we propose that humans can perform a basic integration of reward value and effort requirements without conscious awareness. Furthermore, we propose that conscious awareness of rewards allows for the use of more advanced functions in reward pursuit, which consider the specific course of action that leads to reward attainment. Using a monetary reward priming paradigm that allows us to dissect the performance effects of rewards (i.e., coins of different value) into conscious and unconscious components, we tested this proposal in 3 experiments. Overall, results indicate that people rely on a simple yet adaptive mechanism that unconsciously conserves effort during reward pursuit, because it makes people more reward sensitive whenever more effort is required of the body. Moreover, consciousness supports a more sophisticated mode of reward pursuit, via which people can strategically conserve effort even further. We discuss these findings in the context of decision making, motivation, and consciousness. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. Investigation of autistic traits through strategic decision-making in games with adaptive agents.

    PubMed

    Craig, Alexis B; Grossman, Emily; Krichmar, Jeffrey L

    2017-07-17

    Autism Spectrum Disorders are characterized by difficulties in communicating and cooperating with other people. Impairment in Theory of Mind (ToM), the ability to infer what another person is thinking, may contribute to these social deficits. The present study assesses the relationship between autistic traits and decision-making in a socioeconomic game environment that measures ToM and cooperation. We quantified participant strategy during game play with computer agents that simulated aspects of ToM or fixed strategy agents with static behaviors or heuristics. Individuals with higher Autism Quotient (AQ) scores cooperated less than subjects with low AQ scores with the ToM agents. In contrast, subjects with higher AQ scores cooperated more with fixed strategy agents. Additionally, subjects with higher AQ scores spent more time than low AQ subjects signaling cooperative intent in games with fixed strategy agents while spending less time signaling cooperation with adaptive agents, indicating a preference toward systemizing behaviors in the face of uncertainty. We conclude that individuals with high levels of autistic traits are less likely to utilize ToM as a cognitive strategy, even when it is beneficial, to achieve a desired outcome.

  12. [Scale of conflict in health care decision-making: an instrument adapted and validated for the Portuguese language].

    PubMed

    Martinho, Maria Júlia Costa Marques; da Silva, Martins Maria Manuela Ferreira Pereira; Angelo, Margareth

    2013-06-01

    The different options available to patients in the health environment now are implicated in increasingly difficult processes of decision-making, and may trigger conflict about them. This study had as its purpose, to develop an instrument that enabled us to know about this variable. Therefore, we decided to effect a transcultural adaptation and evaluation of psychometric properties of the Portuguese version of the Decisional Conflict Scale, which seeks information about decision-making and the factors that influence the choices made. The sample consisted of 521 nursing students, with a focus on decision-making regarding the flu syndrome. The results obtained on the reliability tests showed good internal consistency for all items (Cronbach a=0.94). The psychometric study allowed us to affirm that the Portuguese version of the Decisional Conflict Scale, which we call Scale of Conflicts in Decision-Making in Health (ECTDS), was a reliable and valid instrument.

  13. Adaptation by Stealth: Understanding climate information use across scales and decision spaces in water management in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirchhoff, C.; Vang Rasmussen, L.; Lemos, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    While there has been considerable focus on understanding how factors related to the creation of climate knowledge affect its uptake and use, less attention has been paid to the actors, decisions, and processes through which climate information supports, or fails to support, action. This is particularly the case concerning how different scales of decision-making influence information uptake. In this study, we seek to understand how water and resource managers' decision space influences climate information use in two Great Lakes watersheds. We find that despite the availability of tailored climate information, actual use of information in decision making remains low. Reasons include: a) lack of willingness to place climate on agendas because local managers perceive climate change as politically risky and a difficult and intangible problem; b) lack of formal mandate or authority at the city and county scale to translate climate information into on-the-ground action, c) problems with the information itself, and d) perceived lack of demand for climate information by those managers who have the mandate and authority (e.g. at the state level) to use (or help others use) climate information. Our findings suggest that 1) climate scientists and information brokers should produce information that meets a range of decision needs and reserve intensive tailoring efforts for decision makers who have authority and willingness to employ climate information, 2) without support from higher levels of decision-making (e.g. state) it is unlikely that climate information use for adaptation decisions will accelerate significantly in the next few years, and 3) the trend towards adopting more sustainability and resilience practices over climate-specific actions should be supported as an important component of the climate adaptation repertoire.

  14. ADApT: A rapid integrated assessment and decision support tool to respond to global change in coastal regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cooley, S.; Bundy, A.; Chuenpagdee, R.; Isaacs, M.; Badjeck, M.; Defeo, O.; Glaeser, B.; Guillotreau, P.; Makino, M.; Perry, R. I.

    2012-12-01

    Ecosystem change is happening at a rate faster than predicted, impacting the livelihoods of coastal peoples globally and precipitating the need for timely and effective response to global change. While knowledge about best practices in coping and adaptation are evolving, countries still struggle with ways to enhance coastal peoples' capacity to respond to change and reduce their vulnerability. The complexity of coastal marine ecosystems, and the multitude of challenges faced, make it difficult to know what natural and social attributes contribute to, or limit the success of adaptations to global change. We are developing a rapid integrated assessment decision support tool (ADApT: Assessment from Description, Appraisal, and Typology) based on a global database of coastal and marine case studies. The tool focuses on 1) description of the ecological and social impacts of ecosystem stresses, and responses to those stresses; 2) appraisal of how successful those responses are in mitigating impacts, as well as what risks and uncertainties are involved; and 3) development of a typology that will enable an efficient assessment of impacts and the appropriate response. ADApT will enable decision makers and local actors to triage and improve their responses to global change, to make decisions efficiently for transitions towards coastal sustainability, and to evaluate where to most effectively invest funds to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience of coastal peoples to global change.

  15. The adaptive response metric: toward an all-hazards tool for planning, decision support, and after-action analytics.

    PubMed

    Potter, Margaret A; Schuh, Russell G; Pomer, Bruce; Stebbins, Samuel

    2013-01-01

    Local health departments are organized, resourced, and operated primarily for routine public health services. For them, responding to emergencies and disasters requires adaptation to meet the demands of an emergency, and they must reallocate or augment resources, adjust work schedules, and, depending on severity and duration of the event, even compromise routine service outputs. These adaptations occur to varying degrees regardless of the type of emergency or disaster. The Adaptive Response Metric was developed through collaboration between a number of California health departments and university-based preparedness researchers. It measures the degree of "stress" from an emergency response as experienced by local health departments at the level of functional units (eg, nursing, administration, environmental services). Pilot testing of the Adaptive Response Metric indicates its utility for emergency planning, real-time decision making, and after-action analytics.

  16. Adaptive decision making in a dynamic environment: a test of a sequential sampling model of relative judgment.

    PubMed

    Vuckovic, Anita; Kwantes, Peter J; Neal, Andrew

    2013-09-01

    Research has identified a wide range of factors that influence performance in relative judgment tasks. However, the findings from this research have been inconsistent. Studies have varied with respect to the identification of causal variables and the perceptual and decision-making mechanisms underlying performance. Drawing on the ecological rationality approach, we present a theory of the judgment and decision-making processes involved in a relative judgment task that explains how people judge a stimulus and adapt their decision process to accommodate their own uncertainty associated with those judgments. Undergraduate participants performed a simulated air traffic control conflict detection task. Across two experiments, we systematically manipulated variables known to affect performance. In the first experiment, we manipulated the relative distances of aircraft to a common destination while holding aircraft speeds constant. In a follow-up experiment, we introduced a direct manipulation of relative speed. We then fit a sequential sampling model to the data, and used the best fitting parameters to infer the decision-making processes responsible for performance. Findings were consistent with the theory that people adapt to their own uncertainty by adjusting their criterion and the amount of time they take to collect evidence in order to make a more accurate decision. From a practical perspective, the paper demonstrates that one can use a sequential sampling model to understand performance in a dynamic environment, allowing one to make sense of and interpret complex patterns of empirical findings that would otherwise be difficult to interpret using standard statistical analyses.

  17. Adapting the SLIM diabetes prevention intervention to a Dutch real-life setting: joint decision making by science and practice.

    PubMed

    Jansen, Sophia C; Haveman-Nies, Annemien; Duijzer, Geerke; Ter Beek, Josien; Hiddink, Gerrit J; Feskens, Edith J M

    2013-05-08

    Although many evidence-based diabetes prevention interventions exist, they are not easily applicable in real-life settings. Moreover, there is a lack of examples which describe the adaptation process of these interventions to practice. In this paper we present an example of such an adaptation. We adapted the SLIM (Study on Lifestyle intervention and Impaired glucose tolerance Maastricht) diabetes prevention intervention to a Dutch real-life setting, in a joint decision making process of intervention developers and local health care professionals. We used 3 adaptation steps in accordance with current adaptation frameworks. In the first step, the elements of the SLIM intervention were identified. In the second step, these elements were judged for their applicability in a real-life setting. In the third step, adaptations were proposed and discussed for those elements which were deemed not applicable. Participants invited for this process included intervention developers and local health care professionals (n=19). In the first adaptation step, a total of 22 intervention elements were identified. In the second step, 12 of these 22 intervention elements were judged as inapplicable. In the third step, a consensus was achieved for the adaptations of all 12 elements. The adapted elements were in the following categories: target population, techniques, intensity, delivery mode, materials, organisational structure, and political and financial conditions. The adaptations either lay in changing the SLIM protocol (6 elements) or the real-life working procedures (1 element), or a combination of both (4 elements). The positive result of this study is that a consensus was achieved within a relatively short time period (nine months) between the developers of the SLIM intervention and local health care professionals on the adaptations needed to make SLIM applicable in a Dutch real-life setting. Our example shows that it is possible to combine the perspectives of scientists and

  18. Adaptive Computer Aiding in Dynamic Decision Processes: An Initial Study in Dynamic Utility Convergence and Decision Aiding

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1974-11-29

    did not receive an intelligence analysis report on it. The subjects were infomed that they were participating in human decision making research...utility values from cycle ti to t2.1 In the following analysis a global measure is used, which summarizes the variability of the utilities for the...Paper 254, DAHC 19-72-C-0026, U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences , December, 1973. 6. Peterson, Cameron R., "Judgements

  19. Do individual differences in Iowa Gambling Task performance predict adaptive decision making for risky gains and losses?

    PubMed

    Weller, Joshua A; Levin, Irwin P; Bechara, Antoine

    2010-02-01

    We relate performance on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), a widely used, but complex, neuropsychological task of executive function in which mixed outcomes (gains and losses) are experienced together, to performance on a relatively simpler descriptive task, the Cups task, which isolates adaptive decision making for achieving gains and avoiding losses. We found that poor IGT performance was associated with suboptimal decision making on Cups, especially for risky losses, suggesting that losses are weighted more than gains in the IGT. These findings were significant beyond several notable gender differences in which men outperformed women. Implications for the neuropsychological study of risk are discussed.

  20. The psychological and neurological bases of leader self-complexity and effects on adaptive decision-making.

    PubMed

    Hannah, Sean T; Balthazard, Pierre A; Waldman, David A; Jennings, Peter L; Thatcher, Robert W

    2013-05-01

    Complex contexts and environments require leaders to be highly adaptive and to adjust their behavioral responses to meet diverse role demands. Such adaptability may be contingent upon leaders having requisite complexity to facilitate effectiveness across a range of roles. However, there exists little empirical understanding of the etiology or basis of leader complexity. To this end, we conceptualized a model of leader self-complexity that is inclusive of both the mind (the complexity of leaders' self-concepts) and the brain (the neuroscientific basis for complex leadership). We derived psychometric and neurologically based measures, the latter based on quantitative electroencephalogram (qEEG) profiles of leader self-complexity, and tested their separate effects on the adaptive decision-making of 103 military leaders. Results demonstrated that both measures accounted for unique variance in external ratings of adaptive decision-making. We discuss how these findings provide a deeper understanding of the latent and dynamic mechanisms that underpin leaders' self-complexity and their adaptability.

  1. Usability of clinical decision support system as a facilitator for learning the assistive technology adaptation process.

    PubMed

    Danial-Saad, Alexandra; Kuflik, Tsvi; Weiss, Patrice L Tamar; Schreuer, Naomi

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the usability of Ontology Supported Computerized Assistive Technology Recommender (OSCAR), a Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) for the assistive technology adaptation process, its impact on learning the matching process, and to determine the relationship between its usability and learnability. Two groups of expert and novice clinicians (total, n = 26) took part in this study. Each group filled out system usability scale (SUS) to evaluate OSCAR's usability. The novice group completed a learning questionnaire to assess OSCAR's effect on their ability to learn the matching process. Both groups rated OSCAR's usability as "very good", (M [SUS] = 80.7, SD = 11.6, median = 83.7) by the novices, and (M [SUS] = 81.2, SD = 6.8, median = 81.2) by the experts. The Mann-Whitney results indicated that no significant differences were found between the expert and novice groups in terms of OSCAR's usability. A significant positive correlation existed between the usability of OSCAR and the ability to learn the adaptation process (rs = 0.46, p = 0.04). Usability is an important factor in the acceptance of a system. The successful application of user-centered design principles during the development of OSCAR may serve as a case study that models the significant elements to be considered, theoretically and practically in developing other systems. Implications for Rehabilitation Creating a CDSS with a focus on its usability is an important factor for its acceptance by its users. Successful usability outcomes can impact the learning process of the subject matter in general, and the AT prescription process in particular. The successful application of User-Centered Design principles during the development of OSCAR may serve as a case study that models the significant elements to be considered, theoretically and practically. The study emphasizes the importance of close collaboration between the developers and

  2. Supporting adaptation decisions to address climate related impacts and hazards in the Caribbean (the CARIWIG project)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burton, Aidan

    2015-04-01

    Managers and policy makers from regional and national institutions in the Caribbean require knowledge of the likely impacts and hazards arising from the present and future climate that are specific to their responsibility and geographical range, and relevant to their planning time-horizons. Knowledge, experience and the political support to develop appropriate adaptation strategies are also required. However, the climate information available for the region is of limited use as: observational records are intermittent and typically of short duration; climate model projections of the weather suffer from scale and bias issues; and statistical downscaling to provide locally relevant unbiased climate change information remains sporadic. Tropical cyclone activity is a considerable sporadic hazard in the region and yet related weather information is limited to historic events. Further, there is a lack of guidance for managers and policy makers operating with very limited resources to utilize such information within their remit. The CARIWIG project (June 2012 - May 2015) will be presented, reflecting on stakeholder impact, best practice and lessons learned. This project seeks to address the climate service needs of the Caribbean region through a combination of capacity building and improved provision of climate information services. An initial workshop with regional-scale stakeholders initiated a dialogue to develop a realistic shared vision of the needed information services which could be provided by the project. Capacity building is then achieved on a number of levels: knowledge and expertise sharing between project partners; raising understanding and knowledge of resources that support national and regional institutions' adaptation decisions; developing case studies in key sectors to test and demonstrate the information services; training for stakeholder technical staff in the use of the provided services; the development of a support network within and out

  3. Evidence-based decision-making in healthcare: exploring the issues though the lens of complex, adaptive systems theory.

    PubMed

    Lindstrom, Ronald R

    2003-01-01

    Browman, Snider and Ellis have articulated several reasons as to why and how managers should address the implementation of evidence-based decision-making (EBDM) in healthcare. While their observations are acknowledged to be from the unique perspective of an oncology setting, this is a timely and welcome lead article with significance in other settings. The authors invite opinions on transferability, thus forming the basis of this commentary. In response, this commentary offers a number of supportive and differing views. Complex, adaptive systems (CAS) theory is first addressed as an appropriate lens to reframe our conceptualization of the health system. Then, in contrast to negotiation, dialogue through participatory planning and decision-making is introduced. Evidence-based decision-making (EBDM) and knowledge translation (KT) are expanded upon in the context of CAS and participatory environments. Finally, concrete suggestions are offered on how to structure multiple-stakeholder involvement in the decision-making process, including the growing role of consumers in the new complex, adaptive systems reality of healthcare.

  4. Regional climate modeling and development of climate adaptation decision aids for energy use in the Southwestern US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Higgins, G.; Darmenova, K.; Apling, D.; Kiley, H.

    2010-12-01

    There is currently a gap between the relatively coarse resolution science data that Global Climate Models (GCMs) produce and the high resolution tailored products that planners need to develop climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Planners need to make decisions on infrastructure, budgets, policy, and programs related to their energy use and consumption and the impacts on the rest of the energy sector. We apply the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to conduct regional dynamical downscaling in the Southwestern US. The European Center/Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) GCM is used to provide initial and boundary conditions. Our methodology involves development of climatological indices of extreme weather and a variety of climate adaptation decision aids. We have further developed energy decision aids to translate the output from the WRF Regional Climate Model (RCM) into future electricity and natural gas demand for several sites in Colorado. These energy decision aids are developed using available energy consumption records from these sites over an historical period. These data are correlated with Heating Degree Days (HDD) and Cooling Degree Days (CCD) data from the RCM to develop models of energy use as a function of HDD/CDD. RCM estimates of HDD/CDD are presented for a current and future period along with projections of energy use. Additionally, derived statistical confidence bounds for these products are provided.

  5. Interim decision-making strategies in adaptive designs for population selection using time-to-event endpoints.

    PubMed

    Uozumi, Ryuji; Hamada, Chikuma

    2017-01-01

    Adaptive designs in oncology clinical trials with interim analyses for population selection could be used in the development of targeted therapies if a predefined biomarker hypothesis exists. In this article, we consider an interim analysis using overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and both OS and PFS, to determine whether the whole population or only the biomarker-positive population should continue into the subsequent stage of the trial, whereas the final decision is made based on OS data only. In order to increase the probability of selecting the most appropriate population at the interim analysis, we propose an interim decision-making strategy in adaptive designs with correlated endpoints considering the post-progression survival (PPS) magnitudes. In our approach, the interim decision is made on the basis of predictive power by incorporating information on OS as well as PFS to supplement the incomplete OS data. Simulation studies assuming a targeted therapy demonstrated that our interim decision-making procedure performs well in terms of selecting the proper population, especially under a scenario in which PPS affects the correlation between OS and PFS.

  6. Decision support for hospital bed management using adaptable individual length of stay estimations and shared resources.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Robert; Geisler, Sandra; Spreckelsen, Cord

    2013-01-07

    Elective patient admission and assignment planning is an important task of the strategic and operational management of a hospital and early on became a central topic of clinical operations research. The management of hospital beds is an important subtask. Various approaches have been proposed, involving the computation of efficient assignments with regard to the patients' condition, the necessity of the treatment, and the patients' preferences. However, these approaches are mostly based on static, unadaptable estimates of the length of stay and, thus, do not take into account the uncertainty of the patient's recovery. Furthermore, the effect of aggregated bed capacities have not been investigated in this context. Computer supported bed management, combining an adaptable length of stay estimation with the treatment of shared resources (aggregated bed capacities) has not yet been sufficiently investigated. The aim of our work is: 1) to define a cost function for patient admission taking into account adaptable length of stay estimations and aggregated resources, 2) to define a mathematical program formally modeling the assignment problem and an architecture for decision support, 3) to investigate four algorithmic methodologies addressing the assignment problem and one base-line approach, and 4) to evaluate these methodologies w.r.t. cost outcome, performance, and dismissal ratio. The expected free ward capacity is calculated based on individual length of stay estimates, introducing Bernoulli distributed random variables for the ward occupation states and approximating the probability densities. The assignment problem is represented as a binary integer program. Four strategies for solving the problem are applied and compared: an exact approach, using the mixed integer programming solver SCIP; and three heuristic strategies, namely the longest expected processing time, the shortest expected processing time, and random choice. A baseline approach serves to compare these

  7. Decision support for hospital bed management using adaptable individual length of stay estimations and shared resources

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Elective patient admission and assignment planning is an important task of the strategic and operational management of a hospital and early on became a central topic of clinical operations research. The management of hospital beds is an important subtask. Various approaches have been proposed, involving the computation of efficient assignments with regard to the patients’ condition, the necessity of the treatment, and the patients’ preferences. However, these approaches are mostly based on static, unadaptable estimates of the length of stay and, thus, do not take into account the uncertainty of the patient’s recovery. Furthermore, the effect of aggregated bed capacities have not been investigated in this context. Computer supported bed management, combining an adaptable length of stay estimation with the treatment of shared resources (aggregated bed capacities) has not yet been sufficiently investigated. The aim of our work is: 1) to define a cost function for patient admission taking into account adaptable length of stay estimations and aggregated resources, 2) to define a mathematical program formally modeling the assignment problem and an architecture for decision support, 3) to investigate four algorithmic methodologies addressing the assignment problem and one base-line approach, and 4) to evaluate these methodologies w.r.t. cost outcome, performance, and dismissal ratio. Methods The expected free ward capacity is calculated based on individual length of stay estimates, introducing Bernoulli distributed random variables for the ward occupation states and approximating the probability densities. The assignment problem is represented as a binary integer program. Four strategies for solving the problem are applied and compared: an exact approach, using the mixed integer programming solver SCIP; and three heuristic strategies, namely the longest expected processing time, the shortest expected processing time, and random choice. A baseline approach

  8. Age and Adaptation: Stronger Decision Updating about Real World Risks in Older Age.

    PubMed

    Rolison, Jonathan J; Wood, Stacey; Hanoch, Yaniv

    2017-01-17

    In later life, people are faced with a multitude of risky decisions that concern their health, finance, and personal security. Older adults often exercise caution in situations that involve risk. In this research, we asked whether older adults are also more responsive to warnings about potential risk. An answer to this question could reveal a factor underlying increased cautiousness in older age. In Study 1, participants decided whether they would engage in risky activities (e.g., using an ATM machine in the street) in four realistic scenarios about which participants could be expected to have relevant knowledge or experience. They then made posterior decisions after listening to audio extracts of real reports relevant to each activity. In Study 2, we explored the role that emotions play in decision updating. As in Study 1, participants made prior and posterior decisions, with the exception that for each scenario the reports were presented in their original audio format (high emotive) or in a written transcript format (low emotive). Following each posterior decision, participants indicated their emotional valence and arousal responses to the reports. In both studies, older adults engaged in fewer risky activities than younger adults, indicative of increased cautiousness in older age, and exhibited stronger decision updating in response to the reports. Older adults also showed stronger emotional responses to the reports, even though emotional responses did not differ for audio and written transcript formats. Finally, age differences in emotional responses to the reports accounted for age differences in decision updating.

  9. Multi-disciplinary assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture to support adaptation decision making in developing countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

    2016-04-01

    Many existing climate change impact studies, carried out by academic researchers, are disconnected from decision making processes of stakeholders. On the other hand many climate change adaptation projects in developing countries lack a solid evidence base of current and future climate impacts as well as vulnerabilities assessment at different scales. In order to fill this information gap, FAO has developed and implemented a tool "MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change)" in several developing countries such as Morocco, the Philippines and Peru, and recently in Malawi and Zambia. MOSAICC employs a multi-disciplinary assessment approach to addressing climate change impacts and adaptation planning in the agriculture and food security sectors, and integrates five components from different academic disciplines: 1. Statistical downscaling of climate change projections, 2. Yield simulation of major crops at regional scale under climate change, 3. Surface hydrology simulation model, 4. Macroeconomic model, and 5. Forestry model. Furthermore MOSAICC has been developed as a capacity development tool for the national scientists so that they can conduct the country assessment themselves, using their own data, and reflect the outcome into the national adaptation policies. The outputs are nation-wide coverage, disaggregated at sub-national level to support strategic planning, investments and decisions by national policy makers. MOSAICC is designed in such a way to promote stakeholders' participation and strengthen technical capacities in developing countries. The paper presents MOSAICC and projects that used MOSAICC as a tool with case studies from countries.

  10. Adaptive learning and decision-making under uncertainty by metaplastic synapses guided by a surprise detection system

    PubMed Central

    Iigaya, Kiyohito

    2016-01-01

    Recent experiments have shown that animals and humans have a remarkable ability to adapt their learning rate according to the volatility of the environment. Yet the neural mechanism responsible for such adaptive learning has remained unclear. To fill this gap, we investigated a biophysically inspired, metaplastic synaptic model within the context of a well-studied decision-making network, in which synapses can change their rate of plasticity in addition to their efficacy according to a reward-based learning rule. We found that our model, which assumes that synaptic plasticity is guided by a novel surprise detection system, captures a wide range of key experimental findings and performs as well as a Bayes optimal model, with remarkably little parameter tuning. Our results further demonstrate the computational power of synaptic plasticity, and provide insights into the circuit-level computation which underlies adaptive decision-making. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18073.001 PMID:27504806

  11. How to Cope with Bias While Adapting for Inclusion in Physical Education and Sports: A Judgment and Decision-Making Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hutzler, Yeshayahu; Bar-Eli, Michael

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe a theoretical model and practice examples of judgment and decision making bias within the context of inclusion in physical education and sports. After presenting the context of adapting for inclusion, the theoretical roots of judgment and decision are described, and are linked to the practice of physical…

  12. How to Cope with Bias While Adapting for Inclusion in Physical Education and Sports: A Judgment and Decision-Making Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hutzler, Yeshayahu; Bar-Eli, Michael

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe a theoretical model and practice examples of judgment and decision making bias within the context of inclusion in physical education and sports. After presenting the context of adapting for inclusion, the theoretical roots of judgment and decision are described, and are linked to the practice of physical…

  13. A Novel Clinical Decision Support System Using Improved Adaptive Genetic Algorithm for the Assessment of Fetal Well-Being

    PubMed Central

    Jambek, Asral Bahari; Neoh, Siew-Chin

    2015-01-01

    A novel clinical decision support system is proposed in this paper for evaluating the fetal well-being from the cardiotocogram (CTG) dataset through an Improved Adaptive Genetic Algorithm (IAGA) and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM). IAGA employs a new scaling technique (called sigma scaling) to avoid premature convergence and applies adaptive crossover and mutation techniques with masking concepts to enhance population diversity. Also, this search algorithm utilizes three different fitness functions (two single objective fitness functions and multi-objective fitness function) to assess its performance. The classification results unfold that promising classification accuracy of 94% is obtained with an optimal feature subset using IAGA. Also, the classification results are compared with those of other Feature Reduction techniques to substantiate its exhaustive search towards the global optimum. Besides, five other benchmark datasets are used to gauge the strength of the proposed IAGA algorithm. PMID:25793009

  14. Horseshoe bats make adaptive prey-selection decisions, informed by echo cues

    PubMed Central

    Koselj, Klemen; Schnitzler, Hans-Ulrich; Siemers, Björn M.

    2011-01-01

    Foragers base their prey-selection decisions on the information acquired by the sensory systems. In bats that use echolocation to find prey in darkness, it is not clear whether the specialized diet, as sometimes found by faecal analysis, is a result of active decision-making or rather of biased sensory information. Here, we tested whether greater horseshoe bats decide economically when to attack a particular prey item and when not. This species is known to recognize different insects based on their wing-beat pattern imprinted in the echoes. We built a simulation of the natural foraging process in the laboratory, where the bats scanned for prey from a perch and, upon reaching the decision to attack, intercepted the prey in flight. To fully control echo information available to the bats and assure its unambiguity, we implemented computer-controlled propellers that produced echoes resembling those from natural insects of differing profitability. The bats monitored prey arrivals to sample the supply of prey categories in the environment and to inform foraging decisions. The bats adjusted selectivity for the more profitable prey to its inter-arrival intervals as predicted by foraging theory (an economic strategy known to benefit fitness). Moreover, unlike in previously studied vertebrates, foraging performance of horseshoe bats was not limited by costly rejections of the profitable prey. This calls for further research into the evolutionary selection pressures that sharpened the species's decision-making capacity. PMID:21367788

  15. Adaptation for Planting and Irrigation Decisions to Changing Monsoon Regime in Northeast India: Risk-based Hydro-economic Optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, T.; Cai, X.

    2013-12-01

    Delay in onset of Indian summer monsoon becomes increasingly frequent. Delayed monsoon and occasional monsoon failures seriously affect agricultural production in the northeast as well as other parts of India. In the Vaishali district of the Bihar State, Monsoon rainfall is very skewed and erratic, often concentrating in shorter durations. Farmers in Vaishali reported that delayed Monsoon affected paddy planting and, consequently delayed cropping cycle, putting crops under the risks of 'terminal heat.' Canal system in the district does not function due to lack of maintenance; irrigation relies almost entirely on groundwater. Many small farmers choose not to irrigate when monsoon onset is delayed due to high diesel price, leading to reduced production or even crop failure. Some farmers adapt to delayed onset of Monsoon by planting short-duration rice, which gives the flexibility for planting the next season crops. Other sporadic autonomous adaptation activities were observed as well, with various levels of success. Adaptation recommendations and effective policy interventions are much needed. To explore robust options to adapt to the changing Monsoon regime, we build a stochastic programming model to optimize revenues of farmer groups categorized by landholding size, subject to stochastic Monsoon onset and rainfall amount. Imperfect probabilistic long-range forecast is used to inform the model onset and rainfall amount probabilities; the 'skill' of the forecasting is measured using probabilities of correctly predicting events in the past derived through hindcasting. Crop production functions are determined using self-calibrating Positive Mathematical Programming approach. The stochastic programming model aims to emulate decision-making behaviors of representative farmer agents through making choices in adaptation, including crop mix, planting dates, irrigation, and use of weather information. A set of technological and policy intervention scenarios are tested

  16. Decisions of Pregnant Adolescents Towards Antenatal Care Attendance and Their Immediate Postpartum Adaptation: Comparison between Students and Other Occupations.

    PubMed

    Kitiyodom, Siraya

    2015-05-01

    Adolescent pregnancy is risky with multiple complications during pregnancy and the delivery period. Adolescent pregnancy among students is more risky because the mothers did not intend to get pregnant, have poor relationship with the husband and do not take care of their child themselves as in other occupations. The decisions of adolescent mothers towards antenatal care (ANC) attendance and their postpartum adaptation; comparing students with other occupations This retrospective hospital-based study used data from the records of 777 adolescent mothers who attended the adolescent postpartum clinic at Maharat Nakhon Ratchasima Hospital from January 2012 to December 2013. The data were classified into students and other occupation groups. Their decisions for ANC attendance, spousal relationship, pregnancy intentions, family acceptance and postpartum adaptation (contraceptive decision, decision for taking care of baby and returning to study) from both groups were compared and analyzed. The prevalence of student mothers was 63.3% of all adolescent pregnancies. The following factors were more common in student mothers with statistical significance, odd ratio (95% confidence interval): unintended pregnancy 3.66 (2.45-5.47), family non-acceptance 1.71 (1.03-2.93), poor ANC (no ANC and ANC after 12 weeks) 22.82 (14.33-37.34). Other factors including no ANC attendance, decision for taking care of the baby, contraceptive decision (before and after deliveries), and the contraceptive method was no different between the groups. After delivery, adolescents decided to return to their studies; 58.7% for students and 33.3% for other occupation groups. Students account for 63.3% of all adolescent pregnancies. None of them was married so the majority did not intend to be pregnant and not be accepted by their families, leading to poor ANC attendance. Half of them decided to return to their studies. Further studies should be prospectively performed at schools to see the true prevalence

  17. Fuzzy Decision-Making Fuser (FDMF) for Integrating Human-Machine Autonomous (HMA) Systems with Adaptive Evidence Sources.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yu-Ting; Pal, Nikhil R; Marathe, Amar R; Wang, Yu-Kai; Lin, Chin-Teng

    2017-01-01

    A brain-computer interface (BCI) creates a direct communication pathway between the human brain and an external device or system. In contrast to patient-oriented BCIs, which are intended to restore inoperative or malfunctioning aspects of the nervous system, a growing number of BCI studies focus on designing auxiliary systems that are intended for everyday use. The goal of building these BCIs is to provide capabilities that augment existing intact physical and mental capabilities. However, a key challenge to BCI research is human variability; factors such as fatigue, inattention, and stress vary both across different individuals and for the same individual over time. If these issues are addressed, autonomous systems may provide additional benefits that enhance system performance and prevent problems introduced by individual human variability. This study proposes a human-machine autonomous (HMA) system that simultaneously aggregates human and machine knowledge to recognize targets in a rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) task. The HMA focuses on integrating an RSVP BCI with computer vision techniques in an image-labeling domain. A fuzzy decision-making fuser (FDMF) is then applied in the HMA system to provide a natural adaptive framework for evidence-based inference by incorporating an integrated summary of the available evidence (i.e., human and machine decisions) and associated uncertainty. Consequently, the HMA system dynamically aggregates decisions involving uncertainties from both human and autonomous agents. The collaborative decisions made by an HMA system can achieve and maintain superior performance more efficiently than either the human or autonomous agents can achieve independently. The experimental results shown in this study suggest that the proposed HMA system with the FDMF can effectively fuse decisions from human brain activities and the computer vision techniques to improve overall performance on the RSVP recognition task. This conclusion

  18. Small-unit Training for Adaptability and Resilience in Decision Making (STAR-DM)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-01-23

    16 3.2.3 Assessment of Decision Making Performance and Stress ........................................................ 17 3.2.4 Learning Strategies...48 3.4.4 Incorporated Learning Strategies...heat of the battle. Simulation-based training provides an opportunity for trainees to consolidate DM skills learned in the classroom and practice

  19. Adapting a Driving Simulator to Study Pedestrians' Street-Crossing Decisions: A Feasibility Study.

    PubMed

    Jäger, M; Nyffeler, T; Müri, R; Mosimann, U P; Nef, T

    2015-01-01

    The decision when to cross a street safely is a challenging task that poses high demands on perception and cognition. Both can be affected by normal aging, neurodegenerative disorder, and brain injury, and there is an increasing interest in studying street-crossing decisions. In this article, we describe how driving simulators can be modified to study pedestrians' street-crossing decisions. The driving simulator's projection system and the virtual driving environment were used to present street-crossing scenarios to the participants. New sensors were added to measure when the test person starts to cross the street. Outcome measures were feasibility, usability, task performance, and visual exploration behavior, and were measured in 15 younger persons, 15 older persons, and 5 post-stroke patients. The experiments showed that the test is feasible and usable, and the selected difficulty level was appropriate. Significant differences in the number of crashes between young participants and patients (p = .001) as well as between healthy older participants and patients (p = .003) were found. When the approaching vehicle's speed is high, significant differences between younger and older participants were found as well (p = .038). Overall, the new test setup was well accepted, and we demonstrated that driving simulators can be used to study pedestrians' street-crossing decisions.

  20. Placing Handicapped Students in the Least Restrictive Environment: An Adapted Model for Decision Makers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Makuch, Gary; And Others

    Intended for local school district personnel, the document suggests a model for assisting decision makers in placing handicapped students in the least restrictive environment (LRE). Basic considerations of a multidisciplinary team in determining the appropriate placement for the handicapped students are listed (including the nature and degree of…

  1. Cognitive Adaptability: The Role of Metacognition and Feedback in Entrepreneural Decision Policies

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-01-01

    decision might be" (Downey, Hellriegel & Slocum, 1975; Duncan, 1972; Schmidt & Cummings, 1976) 7 The idea of uncertainty is fundamental to...hospital industry: evaluating strategic competencies. Strategic Management Journal, 24: 333-348. Downey, H.., Hellriegel , D. & Slocum, W. 1975

  2. Sea Level Rise Decision Support Tools for Adaptation Planning in Vulnerable Coastal Communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rozum, J. S.; Marcy, D.

    2015-12-01

    NOAA is involved in a myriad of climate related research and projects that help decision makers and the public understand climate science as well as climate change impacts. The NOAA Office for Coastal Management (OCM) provides data, tools, trainings and technical assistance to coastal resource managers. Beginning in 2011, NOAA OCM began developing a sea level rise and coastal flooding impacts viewer which provides nationally consistent data sets and analyses to help communities with coastal management goals such as: understanding and communicating coastal flood hazards, performing vulnerability assessments and increasing coastal resilience, and prioritizing actions for different inundation/flooding scenarios. The Viewer is available on NOAA's Digital Coast platform: (coast.noaa.gov/ditgitalcoast/tools/slr). In this presentation we will share the lessons learned from our work with coastal decision-makers on the role of coastal flood risk data and tools in helping to shape future land use decisions and policies. We will also focus on a recent effort in California to help users understand the similarities and differences of a growing array of sea level rise decision support tools. NOAA staff and other partners convened a workshop entitled, "Lifting the Fog: Bringing Clarity to Sea Level Rise and Shoreline Change Models and Tools," which was attended by tool develops, science translators and coastal managers with the goal to create a collaborative communication framework to help California coastal decision-makers navigate the range of available sea level rise planning tools, and to inform tool developers of future planning needs. A sea level rise tools comparison matrix will be demonstrated. This matrix was developed as part of this effort and has been expanded to many other states via a partnership with NOAA, Climate Central, and The Nature Conservancy.

  3. Adapting community based participatory research (CBPR) methods to the implementation of an asthma shared decision making intervention in ambulatory practices.

    PubMed

    Tapp, Hazel; Kuhn, Lindsay; Alkhazraji, Thamara; Steuerwald, Mark; Ludden, Tom; Wilson, Sandra; Mowrer, Lauren; Mohanan, Sveta; Dulin, Michael F

    2014-05-01

    Translating research findings into clinical practice is a major challenge to improve the quality of healthcare delivery. Shared decision making (SDM) has been shown to be effective and has not yet been widely adopted by health providers. This paper describes the participatory approach used to adapt and implement an evidence-based asthma SDM intervention into primary care practices. A participatory research approach was initiated through partnership development between practice staff and researchers. The collaborative team worked together to adapt and implement a SDM toolkit. Using the RE-AIM framework and qualitative analysis, we evaluated both the implementation of the intervention into clinical practice, and the level of partnership that was established. Analysis included the number of adopting clinics and providers, the patients' perception of the SDM approach, and the number of clinics willing to sustain the intervention delivery after 1 year. All six clinics and physician champions implemented the intervention using half-day dedicated asthma clinics while 16% of all providers within the practices have participated in the intervention. Themes from the focus groups included the importance of being part the development process, belief that the intervention would benefit patients, and concerns around sustainability and productivity. One year after initiation, 100% of clinics have sustained the intervention, and 90% of participating patients reported a shared decision experience. Use of a participatory research process was central to the successful implementation of a SDM intervention in multiple practices with diverse patient populations.

  4. iRESM INITIATIVE UNDERSTANDING DECISION SUPPORT NEEDS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION --US Midwest Region—

    SciTech Connect

    Rice, Jennie S.; Runci, Paul J.; Moss, Richard H.; Anderson, Kate L.

    2010-10-01

    The impacts of climate change are already affecting human and environmental systems worldwide, yet many uncertainties persist in the prediction of future climate changes and impacts due to limitations in scientific understanding of relevant causal factors. In particular, there is mounting urgency to efforts to improve models of human and environmental systems at the regional scale, and to integrate climate, ecosystem and energy-economic models to support policy, investment, and risk management decisions related to climate change mitigation (i.e., reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (i.e., responding to climate change impacts). The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is developing a modeling framework, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), to address regional human-environmental system interactions in response to climate change and the uncertainties therein. The framework will consist of a suite of integrated models representing regional climate change, regional climate policy, and the regional economy, with a focus on simulating the mitigation and adaptation decisions made over time in the energy, transportation, agriculture, and natural resource management sectors.

  5. Cultural and linguistic adaptation of a multimedia colorectal cancer screening decision aid for Spanish-speaking Latinos.

    PubMed

    Ko, Linda K; Reuland, Daniel; Jolles, Monica; Clay, Rebecca; Pignone, Michael

    2014-01-01

    As the United States becomes more linguistically and culturally diverse, there is a need for effective health communication interventions that target diverse, vulnerable populations, including Latinos. To address such disparities, health communication interventionists often face the challenge to adapt existing interventions from English into Spanish in a way that retains essential elements of the original intervention while also addressing the linguistic needs and cultural perspectives of the target population. The authors describe the conceptual framework, context, rationale, methods, and findings of a formative research process used in creating a Spanish-language version of an evidence-based (English language) multimedia colorectal cancer screening decision aid. The multistep process included identification of essential elements of the existing intervention, literature review, assessment of the regional context and engagement of key stakeholders, and solicitation of direct input from target population. The authors integrated these findings in the creation of the new adapted intervention. They describe how they used this process to identify and integrate sociocultural themes such as personalism (personalismo), familism (familismo), fear (miedo), embarrassment (verguenza), power distance (respeto), machismo, and trust (confianza) into the Spanish-language decision aid.

  6. Adapting community based participatory research (CBPR) methods to the implementation of an asthma shared decision making intervention in ambulatory practices

    PubMed Central

    Kuhn, Lindsay; Alkhazraji, Thamara; Steuerwald, Mark; Ludden, Tom; Wilson, Sandra; Mowrer, Lauren; Mohanan, Sveta; Dulin, Michael F.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Translating research findings into clinical practice is a major challenge to improve the quality of healthcare delivery. Shared decision making (SDM) has been shown to be effective and has not yet been widely adopted by health providers. This paper describes the participatory approach used to adapt and implement an evidence-based asthma SDM intervention into primary care practices. Methods A participatory research approach was initiated through partnership development between practice staff and researchers. The collaborative team worked together to adapt and implement a SDM toolkit. Using the RE-AIM framework and qualitative analysis, we evaluated both the implementation of the intervention into clinical practice, and the level of partnership that was established. Analysis included the number of adopting clinics and providers, the patients’ perception of the SDM approach, and the number of clinics willing to sustain the intervention delivery after 1 year. Results All six clinics and physician champions implemented the intervention using half-day dedicated asthma clinics while 16% of all providers within the practices have participated in the intervention. Themes from the focus groups included the importance of being part the development process, belief that the intervention would benefit patients, and concerns around sustainability and productivity. One year after initiation, 100% of clinics have sustained the intervention, and 90% of participating patients reported a shared decision experience. Conclusions Use of a participatory research process was central to the successful implementation of a SDM intervention in multiple practices with diverse patient populations. PMID:24350877

  7. Implementation of adapted PECARN decision rule for children with minor head injury in the pediatric emergency department.

    PubMed

    Bressan, Silvia; Romanato, Sabrina; Mion, Teresa; Zanconato, Stefania; Da Dalt, Liviana

    2012-07-01

    Of the currently published clinical decision rules for the management of minor head injury (MHI) in children, the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) rule, derived and validated in a large multicenter prospective study cohort, with high methodologic standards, appears to be the best clinical decision rule to accurately identify children at very low risk of clinically important traumatic brain injuries (ciTBI) in the pediatric emergency department (PED). This study describes the implementation of an adapted version of the PECARN rule in a tertiary care academic PED in Italy and evaluates implementation success, in terms of medical staff adherence and satisfaction, as well as its effects on clinical practice. The adapted PECARN decision rule algorithms for children (one for those younger than 2 years and one for those older than 2 years) were actively implemented in the PED of Padova, Italy, for a 6-month testing period. Adherence and satisfaction of medical staff to the new rule were calculated. Data from 356 visits for MHI during PECARN rule implementation and those of 288 patients attending the PED for MHI in the previous 6 months were compared for changes in computed tomography (CT) scan rate, ciTBI rate (defined as death, neurosurgery, intubation for longer than 24 hours, or hospital admission at least for two nights associated with TBI) and return visits for symptoms or signs potentially related to MHI. The safety and efficacy of the adapted PECARN rule in clinical practice were also calculated. Adherence to the adapted PECARN rule was 93.5%. The percentage of medical staff satisfied with the new rule, in terms of usefulness and ease of use for rapid decision-making, was significantly higher (96% vs. 51%, p<0.0001) compared to the previous, more complex, internal guideline. CT scan was performed in 30 patients (8.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI]=6% to 11.8%) in the implementation period versus 21 patients (7.3%, 95% CI=4.8% to 10

  8. Does fertility status influence impulsivity and risk taking in human females? Adaptive influences on intertemporal choice and risky decision making

    PubMed Central

    Stevens, Jeffrey R.

    2013-01-01

    Informed by the research on adaptive decision making in other animal species, this study investigated human female’s intertemporal and risky choices across the ovulatory cycle. We tested the hypothesis that at peak fertility, women who are exposed to environments that signal availability of higher quality mates, by viewing images of attractive males, become more impulsive and risk seeking in economic decision tasks. To test this, we collected intertemporal and risky choice before and after exposure to images of either attractive males or neutral landscapes both at peak and low fertility conditions. The results showed an interaction between women’s fertility status and image type, such that women at peak fertility viewing images of attractive men chose the smaller, sooner monetary reward option less than women at peak fertility viewing neutral images. Neither fertility status nor image type influenced risky choice. Thus, though exposure to images of men altered intertemporal choices at peak fertility, this occurred in the opposite direction as predicted—women at peak fertility became less impulsive. Nevertheless, the results of the current study provide evidence for shifts in preferences over the ovulatory cycle and opens future research on economic decision making. PMID:23864300

  9. An Adaptive Testing Strategy for Mastery Decisions. Research Report 79-5.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kingsbury, G. Gage; Weiss, David J.

    The theory and technology of item characteristic curve (ICC) response theory and adaptive testing were applied to judging individuals' competencies against a prespecified mastery level to determine whether each individual is a "master" or "nonmaster" of a specified content domain. Items from two conventionally administered mastery tests…

  10. Adaptation to a Changing Environment by Modifications in Organizational Decision Unit Structure.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duncan, Robert B.

    This paper presents a model of how organizations adapt to the uncertainty in their environment by making changes in the way they structure themselves for decisionmaking. The research reported here indicates that it is not just a single change in organizational structure, but rather a shifting between a more rigid and more flexible decision…

  11. Improving the role of vulnerability assessments In decision support for effective climate adaptation

    Treesearch

    Linda A. Joyce; Constance I. Millar

    2014-01-01

    Vulnerability assessments (VA) have been proposed as an initial step in a process to develop and implement adaptation management for climate change in forest ecosystems. Scientific understanding of the effects of climate change is an ever-accumulating knowledge base. Synthesizing information from this knowledge base in the context of our understanding of ecosystem...

  12. Lithofacies identification using multiple adaptive resonance theory neural networks and group decision expert system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chang, H.-C.; Kopaska-Merkel, D. C.; Chen, H.-C.; Rocky, Durrans S.

    2000-01-01

    Lithofacies identification supplies qualitative information about rocks. Lithofacies represent rock textures and are important components of hydrocarbon reservoir description. Traditional techniques of lithofacies identification from core data are costly and different geologists may provide different interpretations. In this paper, we present a low-cost intelligent system consisting of three adaptive resonance theory neural networks and a rule-based expert system to consistently and objectively identify lithofacies from well-log data. The input data are altered into different forms representing different perspectives of observation of lithofacies. Each form of input is processed by a different adaptive resonance theory neural network. Among these three adaptive resonance theory neural networks, one neural network processes the raw continuous data, another processes categorial data, and the third processes fuzzy-set data. Outputs from these three networks are then combined by the expert system using fuzzy inference to determine to which facies the input data should be assigned. Rules are prioritized to emphasize the importance of firing order. This new approach combines the learning ability of neural networks, the adaptability of fuzzy logic, and the expertise of geologists to infer facies of the rocks. This approach is applied to the Appleton Field, an oil field located in Escambia County, Alabama. The hybrid intelligence system predicts lithofacies identity from log data with 87.6% accuracy. This prediction is more accurate than those of single adaptive resonance theory networks, 79.3%, 68.0% and 66.0%, using raw, fuzzy-set, and categorical data, respectively, and by an error-backpropagation neural network, 57.3%. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Perceptual decision processes flexibly adapt to avoid change-of-mind motor costs.

    PubMed

    Moher, Jeff; Song, Joo-Hyun

    2014-07-01

    The motor system is tightly linked with perception and cognition. Recent studies have shown that even anticipated biophysical action costs associated with competing response options can be incorporated into decision-making processes. As a result, choices associated with high energy costs are less likely to be selected. However, some action costs may be harder to predict. For example, a person choosing among apples at a grocery store may change his or her mind suddenly about which apple to put into the cart. This change of mind may be reflected in motor output as the initial decision triggers a motor response toward a Granny Smith that is subsequently redirected toward a Red Delicious. In the present study, to examine how motor costs associated with changes of mind affect perceptual decision making, participants performed a difficult random dot–motion discrimination task in which they had to indicate the direction of motion by reaching to one of two response options. Although each response box was always equidistant from the starting position, the physical distance between the two response options was varied. We found that when the boxes were far apart from one another, and thus changes of mind incurred greater redirection motor costs, change-of-mind frequency decreased while latency to initiate movement increased. This occurred even when response box distance varied randomly from trial to trial and was cued only 1 s before each trial began. Thus, we demonstrated that observers can dynamically adjust perceptual decision-making processes to avoid high motor costs incurred by a change of mind.

  14. Perceptual decision processes flexibly adapt to avoid change-of-mind motor costs

    PubMed Central

    Moher, Jeff; Song, Joo-Hyun

    2014-01-01

    The motor system is tightly linked with perception and cognition. Recent studies have shown that even anticipated biophysical action costs associated with competing response options can be incorporated into decision-making processes. As a result, choices associated with high energy costs are less likely to be selected. However, some action costs may be harder to predict. For example, a person choosing among apples at a grocery store may change his or her mind suddenly about which apple to put into the cart. This change of mind may be reflected in motor output as the initial decision triggers a motor response toward a Granny Smith that is subsequently redirected toward a Red Delicious. In the present study, to examine how motor costs associated with changes of mind affect perceptual decision making, participants performed a difficult random dot–motion discrimination task in which they had to indicate the direction of motion by reaching to one of two response options. Although each response box was always equidistant from the starting position, the physical distance between the two response options was varied. We found that when the boxes were far apart from one another, and thus changes of mind incurred greater redirection motor costs, change-of-mind frequency decreased while latency to initiate movement increased. This occurred even when response box distance varied randomly from trial to trial and was cued only 1 s before each trial began. Thus, we demonstrated that observers can dynamically adjust perceptual decision-making processes to avoid high motor costs incurred by a change of mind. PMID:24986186

  15. Phase correlation based adaptive mode decision for the H.264/AVC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdelazim, Abdelrahman; Mein, Stephen James; Varley, Martin Roy; Grecos, Christos; Ait-Boudaoud, Djamel

    2011-03-01

    The H.264 video coding standard achieves high performance compression and image quality at the expense of increased encoding complexity, due to the very refined Motion Estimation (ME) and mode decision processes. This paper focuses on decreasing the complexity of the mode selection process by effectively applying a novel fast mode decision algorithm. Firstly the phase correlation is analysed between a macroblock and its prediction obtained from the previously encoded adjacent block. Relationships are established between the correlation value and object size and also best fit motion vector. From this a novel fast mode decision and motion estimation technique has been developed utilising preprocessing frequency domain ME in order to accurately predict the best mode and the search range. We measure the correlation between a macroblock and the corresponding prediction. Based on the result we select the best mode, or limit the mode selection process to a subset of modes. Moreover the correlation result is also used to select an appropriate search range for the ME stage. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm significantly reduces the motion estimation time whilst maintaining similar Rate Distortion performance, when compared to both the H.264/AVC Joint Model (JM) reference software and recently reported work.

  16. The Carpe Diem West Academy: Connecting Water Resources Practitioners and Decision Support Tool Developers in Pursuit of Climate Change Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, H. C.; morino, K.; Wiltshire, K.

    2012-12-01

    Water resources practitioners face a confusing and often overwhelming plethora of evolving tools and methods for considering climate change in planning and management. Many tools require substantial investments in data gathering, analysis, or stakeholder engagement. Many address only pieces of the climate change adaptation challenge without clear interconnection. Additionally, there are few standards of practice in the application of these tools. The Carpe Diem West Academy provides knowledge sharing, community building, and collaboration among water resources practitioners and decision support tool developers to facilitate use of science in adaptation efforts. The technical core of the Academy is a web portal (carpediemwestacademy.org) that uses multiple frameworks, including iterative risk management, to organize an interactive compendium of over 150 tools and training resources developed by others, that are useful for water resources planning and management, including consideration of interconnections with other resources such as energy and ecosystem services. Academy users are supported through a variety of experimental approaches, including webinars and facilitated web discussion, for efficiently engaging water resources practitioners, at a scale that is practical to sustain, that fosters shared learning about tools and their application in adaptation efforts, and that can support establishment of best practices for incorporating uncertainty and climate change. The Academy has also been useful for identifying gaps where additional tools, methods, or professional development training are needed, and for providing feedback to tool developers. We report on key findings on the effectiveness of the Academy's multiple approaches.

  17. Science-policy interface in transformative adaptive flood risk management - decision-making in Austria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thaler, Thomas; Attems, Marie-Sophie; Rauter, Magdalena; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this paper aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this paper focussed on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. This paper used the Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA) as a method to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a system and its potential future development, based on qualitatively assessed impact factors and rated quantitative relations between these factors, such as impact and consistency analysis. The purpose of this approach was to develop scenarios, where participations develop their own strategies how to implement a transformative adaptation strategy in flood risk management. In particular, the interaction between researcher, the public and policy makers was analysed. Challenges and limitations were assessed, such as benefits on costs of adaptation measures, for the implementation of visions to

  18. Three-dimensional dose evaluation in breast cancer patients to define decision criteria for adaptive radiotherapy.

    PubMed

    Zegers, Catharina M L; Baeza, Jose A; van Elmpt, Wouter; Murrer, Lars H P; Verhoeven, Karolien; Boersma, Liesbeth; Verhaegen, Frank; Nijsten, Sebastiaan M J J G

    2017-08-29

    Dose-guided adaptive radiation therapy (DGART) is the systematic evaluation and adaptation of the dose delivery during treatment for an individual patient. The aim of this study is to define quantitative action levels for DGART by evaluating changes in 3D dose metrics in breast cancer and correlate them with clinical expert evaluation. Twenty-three breast cancer treatment plans were evaluated, that were clinically adapted based on institutional IGRT guidelines. Reasons for adaptation were variation in seroma, hematoma, edema, positioning or problems using voluntary deep inspiration breath hold. Sixteen patients received a uniform dose to the breast (clinical target volume 1; CTV1). Six patients were treated with a simultaneous integrated boost to CTV2. The original plan was copied to the CT during treatment (re-CT) or to the stitched cone-beam CT (CBCT). Clinical expert evaluation of the re-calculated dose distribution and extraction of dose-volume histogram (DVH) parameters were performed. The extreme scenarios were evaluated, assuming all treatment fractions were given to the original planning CT (pCT), re-CT or CBCT. Reported results are mean ± SD. DVH results showed a mean dose (Dmean) difference between pCT and re-CT of -0.4 ± 1.4% (CTV1) and -1.4 ± 2.1% (CTV2). The difference in V95% was -2.6 ± 4.4% (CTV1) and -9.8 ± 8.3% (CTV2). Clinical evaluation and DVH evaluation resulted in a recommended adaptation in 17/23 or 16/23 plans, respectively. Applying thresholds on the DVH parameters: Dmean CTV, V95% CTV, Dmax, mean lung dose, volume exceeding 107% (uniform dose) or 90% (SIB) of the prescribed dose enabled the identification of patients with an assumed clinically relevant dose difference, with a sensitivity of 0.89 and specificity of 1.0. Re-calculation on CBCT imaging identified the same plans for adaptation as re-CT imaging. Clinical expert evaluation can be related to quantitative DVH parameters on re-CT or CBCT imaging to select

  19. Global models of human decision-making for land-based mitigation and adaptation assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arneth, A.; Brown, C.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.

    2014-07-01

    Understanding the links between land-use change (LUC) and climate change is vital in developing effective land-based climate mitigation policies and adaptation measures. Although mitigation and adaptation are human-mediated processes, current global-scale modelling tools do not account for societal learning and other human responses to environmental change. We propose the agent functional type (AFT) method to advance the representation of these processes, by combining socio-economics (agent-based modelling) with natural sciences (dynamic global vegetation models). Initial AFT-based simulations show the emergence of realistic LUC patterns that reflect known LUC processes, demonstrating the potential of the method to enhance our understanding of the role of people in the Earth system.

  20. Adaptive Training and Collective Decision Support Based on Man-Machine Interface

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-03-02

    of mixed-expertise, collaborative teams. This effort comprised of three specific aims: 1) to develop a portable wireless, real-time f- EEG system for...ADDRESS (ES) U.S. Army Research Office P.O. Box 12211 Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2211 adaptive training, EEG , man-machine interface...This effort comprised of three specific aims: 1) to develop a portable wireless, real-time f- EEG system for measurement and assessment of cognitive

  1. Farmers' climate information needs for long-term adaptive decisions: A case study of almonds in CA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jagannathan, K. A.; Jones, A. D.; Pathak, T. B.; Kerr, A. C.; Doll, D.

    2016-12-01

    Despite advances in climate modeling and projections, several sources report that current tools and models are not widely used in the agriculture sector. Farmers, depending on their local context, require information on very specific climatic metrics such as start of rains during the planting season, number of low temperature days during the growing season, etc. However, such specific climatic information is either not available, and/or is not synthesized and communicated in a manner that is accessible to these decision-makers. This research aims to bridge the gap between climate information and decision-making needs, by providing an improved understanding of what farmers' consider as relevant climate information, and how these needs compare with current modeling capabilities. Almond is a perennial crop, so any changes in climate within its 25-30 year lifetime can have an adverse impact on crop yield. This makes almond growers vulnerable to medium and long-term climate change. Hence, providing appropriate information on future climate projections can help guide their decisions on crop types & varieties, as well as management practices that are better adapted to future climatic conditions. Semi-structured exploratory interviews have been conducted with almond growers, farm advisors, and other industry stakeholders, with three goals: (1) to understand how growers have used climate information in the past; (2) to identify key climatic variables that are relevant - including appropriate temporal scales and acceptable uncertainty levels; and (3) to understand communication methods that could improve the usability of climate information for farm-level decision-making. The interviews showcased a great diversity amongst growers in terms of how they used weather/climate information. Discussions also indicated that there was a potential for climate information to impact long-term decisions, but only if it is provided within the right context, terminology, and communication

  2. Decision making in concurrent multitasking: do people adapt to task interference?

    PubMed

    Nijboer, Menno; Taatgen, Niels A; Brands, Annelies; Borst, Jelmer P; van Rijn, Hedderik

    2013-01-01

    While multitasking has received a great deal of attention from researchers, we still know little about how well people adapt their behavior to multitasking demands. In three experiments, participants were presented with a multicolumn subtraction task, which required working memory in half of the trials. This primary task had to be combined with a secondary task requiring either working memory or visual attention, resulting in different types of interference. Before each trial, participants were asked to choose which secondary task they wanted to perform concurrently with the primary task. We predicted that if people seek to maximize performance or minimize effort required to perform the dual task, they choose task combinations that minimize interference. While performance data showed that the predicted optimal task combinations indeed resulted in minimal interference between tasks, the preferential choice data showed that a third of participants did not show any adaptation, and for the remainder it took a considerable number of trials before the optimal task combinations were chosen consistently. On the basis of these results we argue that, while in principle people are able to adapt their behavior according to multitasking demands, selection of the most efficient combination of strategies is not an automatic process.

  3. Obstacles to adaptation decisions in the developing world: A case study of coastal protection measures and sea-level rise in Kiribati

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, S. D.; Webber, S.

    2014-12-01

    International aid is increasingly focused on adaptation to climate change. At recent meetings of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the developed world agreed to rapidly increase international assistance to help the developing world respond to the impacts of climate change. Here, we examine the decision-making challenges facing internationally supported climate change adaptation projects given the large uncertainty in future climate predictions, using the example of efforts to implement coastal protection measures (e.g. sea walls, mangrove planting) in Kiribati. The central equatorial Pacific country is home to the Kiribati Adaptation Project, the first national-level climate change adaptation project supported by the World Bank. Drawing on interview and document research conducted over an 8-year period, we trace the forces influencing decisions about coastal protection measures, starting from the variability and uncertainty in climate change projections, through the trade-offs between different measures, to the social, political, and economic context in which decisions are finally made. We then discuss how sub-optimal adaptation measures may be implemented despite years of planning, consultation, and technical studies. This qualitative analysis of the real-world process of climate change adaptation reveals that embracing a culturally appropriate and short-term (~20 years) planning horizon, while not ignoring the longer-term future, may reduce the influence of scientific uncertainty on decisions and provide opportunities to learn from mistakes, reassess the science, and adjust suboptimal investments.

  4. A Decision Support System for Climate Change Adaptation in Rainfed Sectors of Agriculture for Central Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mátyás, Csaba; Berki, Imre; Drüszler, Áron; Eredics, Attila; Gálos, Borbála; Illés, Gábor; Móricz, Norbert; Rasztovits, Ervin; Czimber, Kornél

    2013-04-01

    • Background and aims: Rainfed sectors of agriculture such as nature-close forestry, non-irrigated agriculture and animal husbandry on nature-close pastures are threatened by projected climate change especially in low-elevation regions in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is the limiting factor of production and ecosystem stability. Therefore the importance of complex, long term management planning and of land use optimization is increasing. The aim of the Decision Support System under development is to raise awareness and initiate preparation for frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses in the mentioned sectors. • Services provided: The Decision Support System provides GIS-supported information about the most important regional and local risks and mitigation options regarding climate change impacts, projected for reference periods until 2100 (e.g. land cover/use and expectable changes, potential production, water and carbon cycle, biodiversity and other ecosystem services, potential pests and diseases, tolerance limits etc.). The projections are referring first of all on biological production (natural produce), but the System includes also social and economic consequences. • Methods: In the raster based system, the latest image processing technology is used. We apply fuzzy membership functions, Support Vector Machine and Maximum Likelihood classifier. The System is developed in the first step for a reference area in SW Hungary (Zala county). • Novelty: The coherent, fine-scale regional system integrates the basic information about present and projected climates, extremes, hydrology and soil conditions and expected production potential for three sectors of agriculture as options for land use and conservation. • Funding: The development of the Decision Support System "Agrárklíma" is supported by TÁMOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV and 4.2.2.B-10/1-2010-0018 "Talentum" joint EU-national research projects. Keywords: climate change

  5. The Need for Speed: Accelerating Decision Making on the 7 C’s of Adaptive Leadership

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-10-23

    Steven Stebbins points out that the ability to do this is rooted in a variety of competencies: ”creativity, resourcefulness, initiative and...subordinate believes a leader needs to making decisions. Stebbins wrote, “The key concept here is trained intuition. It’s not just a gut feel; one...proquest.umi.com/ (accessed 24 August 2009), 74-77. 5 Ibid., 81 6 FM 6-22, 2-7 7 Ibid., 3-11 8 Steven A. Stebbins , “Building our Intellectual Capital: The Need

  6. Adaptation.

    PubMed

    Broom, Donald M

    2006-01-01

    The term adaptation is used in biology in three different ways. It may refer to changes which occur at the cell and organ level, or at the individual level, or at the level of gene action and evolutionary processes. Adaptation by cells, especially nerve cells helps in: communication within the body, the distinguishing of stimuli, the avoidance of overload and the conservation of energy. The time course and complexity of these mechanisms varies. Adaptive characters of organisms, including adaptive behaviours, increase fitness so this adaptation is evolutionary. The major part of this paper concerns adaptation by individuals and its relationships to welfare. In complex animals, feed forward control is widely used. Individuals predict problems and adapt by acting before the environmental effect is substantial. Much of adaptation involves brain control and animals have a set of needs, located in the brain and acting largely via motivational mechanisms, to regulate life. Needs may be for resources but are also for actions and stimuli which are part of the mechanism which has evolved to obtain the resources. Hence pigs do not just need food but need to be able to carry out actions like rooting in earth or manipulating materials which are part of foraging behaviour. The welfare of an individual is its state as regards its attempts to cope with its environment. This state includes various adaptive mechanisms including feelings and those which cope with disease. The part of welfare which is concerned with coping with pathology is health. Disease, which implies some significant effect of pathology, always results in poor welfare. Welfare varies over a range from very good, when adaptation is effective and there are feelings of pleasure or contentment, to very poor. A key point concerning the concept of individual adaptation in relation to welfare is that welfare may be good or poor while adaptation is occurring. Some adaptation is very easy and energetically cheap and

  7. Adaptive Adolescent Flexibility: Neurodevelopment of Decision-making and Learning in a Risky Context.

    PubMed

    McCormick, Ethan M; Telzer, Eva H

    2017-03-01

    Research on adolescence has largely focused on the particular biological and neural changes that place teens at risk for negative outcomes linked to increases in sensation-seeking and risky behavior. However, there is a growing interest in the adaptive function of adolescence, with work highlighting the dual nature of adolescence as a period of potential risk and opportunity. We examined how behavioral and neural sensitivity to risk and reward varies as a function of age using the Balloon Analog Risk Task. Seventy-seven children and adolescents (ages 8-17 years) completed the Balloon Analog Risk Task during an fMRI session. Results indicate that adolescents show greater learning throughout the task. Furthermore, older participants showed increased neural responses to reward in the OFC and ventral striatum, increased activation to risk in the mid-cingulate cortex, as well as increased functional OFC-medial PFC coupling in both risk and reward contexts. Age-related changes in regional activity and interregional connectivity explain the link between age and increases in flexible learning. These results support the idea that adolescents' sensitivity to risk and reward supports adaptive learning and behavioral approaches for reward acquisition.

  8. Adaptive Adolescent Flexibility: Neurodevelopment of Decision-making and Learning in a Risky Context

    PubMed Central

    McCormick, Ethan M.; Telzer, Eva H.

    2017-01-01

    Research on adolescence has largely focused on the particular biological and neural changes that place teens at risk for negative outcomes linked to increases in sensation-seeking and risky behavior. However, there is a growing interest in the adaptive function of adolescence, with work highlighting the dual nature of adolescence as a period of potential risk and opportunity. We examined how behavioral and neural sensitivity to risk and reward varies as a function of age using the Balloon Analog Risk Task. Seventy-seven children and adolescents (ages 8–17 years) completed the Balloon Analog Risk Task during an fMRI session. Results indicate that adolescents show greater learning throughout the task. Furthermore, older participants showed increased neural responses to reward in the OFC and ventral striatum, increased activation to risk in the mid-cingulate cortex, as well as increased functional OFC–medial PFC coupling in both risk and reward contexts. Age-related changes in regional activity and interregional connectivity explain the link between age and increases in flexible learning. These results support the idea that adolescents’ sensitivity to risk and reward supports adaptive learning and behavioral approaches for reward acquisition. PMID:28129057

  9. Value-based decision-making battery: A Bayesian adaptive approach to assess impulsive and risky behavior.

    PubMed

    Pooseh, Shakoor; Bernhardt, Nadine; Guevara, Alvaro; Huys, Quentin J M; Smolka, Michael N

    2017-03-13

    Using simple mathematical models of choice behavior, we present a Bayesian adaptive algorithm to assess measures of impulsive and risky decision making. Practically, these measures are characterized by discounting rates and are used to classify individuals or population groups, to distinguish unhealthy behavior, and to predict developmental courses. However, a constant demand for improved tools to assess these constructs remains unanswered. The algorithm is based on trial-by-trial observations. At each step, a choice is made between immediate (certain) and delayed (risky) options. Then the current parameter estimates are updated by the likelihood of observing the choice, and the next offers are provided from the indifference point, so that they will acquire the most informative data based on the current parameter estimates. The procedure continues for a certain number of trials in order to reach a stable estimation. The algorithm is discussed in detail for the delay discounting case, and results from decision making under risk for gains, losses, and mixed prospects are also provided. Simulated experiments using prescribed parameter values were performed to justify the algorithm in terms of the reproducibility of its parameters for individual assessments, and to test the reliability of the estimation procedure in a group-level analysis. The algorithm was implemented as an experimental battery to measure temporal and probability discounting rates together with loss aversion, and was tested on a healthy participant sample.

  10. Application of flood risk modelling in a web-based geospatial decision support tool for coastal adaptation to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knight, P. J.; Prime, T.; Brown, J. M.; Morrissey, K.; Plater, A. J.

    2015-07-01

    A pressing problem facing coastal decision makers is the conversion of "high-level" but plausible climate change assessments into an effective basis for climate change adaptation at the local scale. Here, we describe a web-based, geospatial decision support tool (DST) that provides an assessment of the potential flood risk for populated coastal lowlands arising from future sea-level rise, coastal storms, and high river flows. This DST has been developed to support operational and strategic decision making by enabling the user to explore the flood hazard from extreme events, changes in the extent of the flood-prone areas with sea-level rise, and thresholds of sea-level rise where current policy and resource options are no longer viable. The DST is built in an open-source GIS that uses freely available geospatial data. Flood risk assessments from a combination of LISFLOOD-FP and SWAB (Shallow Water And Boussinesq) models are embedded within the tool; the user interface enables interrogation of different combinations of coastal and river events under rising-sea-level scenarios. Users can readily vary the input parameters (sea level, storms, wave height and river flow) relative to the present-day topography and infrastructure to identify combinations where significant regime shifts or "tipping points" occur. Two case studies demonstrate the attributes of the DST with respect to the wider coastal community and the UK energy sector. Examples report on the assets at risk and illustrate the extent of flooding in relation to infrastructure access. This informs an economic assessment of potential losses due to climate change and thus provides local authorities and energy operators with essential information on the feasibility of investment for building resilience into vulnerable components of their area of responsibility.

  11. Cognitive flexibility in adolescence: Neural and behavioral mechanisms of reward prediction error processing in adaptive decision making during development

    PubMed Central

    Hauser, Tobias U.; Iannaccone, Reto; Walitza, Susanne; Brandeis, Daniel; Brem, Silvia

    2015-01-01

    Adolescence is associated with quickly changing environmental demands which require excellent adaptive skills and high cognitive flexibility. Feedback-guided adaptive learning and cognitive flexibility are driven by reward prediction error (RPE) signals, which indicate the accuracy of expectations and can be estimated using computational models. Despite the importance of cognitive flexibility during adolescence, only little is known about how RPE processing in cognitive flexibility deviates between adolescence and adulthood. In this study, we investigated the developmental aspects of cognitive flexibility by means of computational models and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We compared the neural and behavioral correlates of cognitive flexibility in healthy adolescents (12–16 years) to adults performing a probabilistic reversal learning task. Using a modified risk-sensitive reinforcement learning model, we found that adolescents learned faster from negative RPEs than adults. The fMRI analysis revealed that within the RPE network, the adolescents had a significantly altered RPE-response in the anterior insula. This effect seemed to be mainly driven by increased responses to negative prediction errors. In summary, our findings indicate that decision making in adolescence goes beyond merely increased reward-seeking behavior and provides a developmental perspective to the behavioral and neural mechanisms underlying cognitive flexibility in the context of reinforcement learning. PMID:25234119

  12. Complexity reduction in the H.264/AVC using highly adaptive fast mode decision based on macroblock motion activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdellah, Skoudarli; Mokhtar, Nibouche; Amina, Serir

    2015-11-01

    The H.264/AVC video coding standard is used in a wide range of applications from video conferencing to high-definition television according to its high compression efficiency. This efficiency is mainly acquired from the newly allowed prediction schemes including variable block modes. However, these schemes require a high complexity to select the optimal mode. Consequently, complexity reduction in the H.264/AVC encoder has recently become a very challenging task in the video compression domain, especially when implementing the encoder in real-time applications. Fast mode decision algorithms play an important role in reducing the overall complexity of the encoder. In this paper, we propose an adaptive fast intermode algorithm based on motion activity, temporal stationarity, and spatial homogeneity. This algorithm predicts the motion activity of the current macroblock from its neighboring blocks and identifies temporal stationary regions and spatially homogeneous regions using adaptive threshold values based on content video features. Extensive experimental work has been done in high profile, and results show that the proposed source-coding algorithm effectively reduces the computational complexity by 53.18% on average compared with the reference software encoder, while maintaining the high-coding efficiency of H.264/AVC by incurring only 0.097 dB in total peak signal-to-noise ratio and 0.228% increment on the total bit rate.

  13. Cognitive flexibility in adolescence: neural and behavioral mechanisms of reward prediction error processing in adaptive decision making during development.

    PubMed

    Hauser, Tobias U; Iannaccone, Reto; Walitza, Susanne; Brandeis, Daniel; Brem, Silvia

    2015-01-01

    Adolescence is associated with quickly changing environmental demands which require excellent adaptive skills and high cognitive flexibility. Feedback-guided adaptive learning and cognitive flexibility are driven by reward prediction error (RPE) signals, which indicate the accuracy of expectations and can be estimated using computational models. Despite the importance of cognitive flexibility during adolescence, only little is known about how RPE processing in cognitive flexibility deviates between adolescence and adulthood. In this study, we investigated the developmental aspects of cognitive flexibility by means of computational models and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We compared the neural and behavioral correlates of cognitive flexibility in healthy adolescents (12-16years) to adults performing a probabilistic reversal learning task. Using a modified risk-sensitive reinforcement learning model, we found that adolescents learned faster from negative RPEs than adults. The fMRI analysis revealed that within the RPE network, the adolescents had a significantly altered RPE-response in the anterior insula. This effect seemed to be mainly driven by increased responses to negative prediction errors. In summary, our findings indicate that decision making in adolescence goes beyond merely increased reward-seeking behavior and provides a developmental perspective to the behavioral and neural mechanisms underlying cognitive flexibility in the context of reinforcement learning.

  14. A decision support system for adaptive real-time management ofseasonal wetlands in California

    SciTech Connect

    Quinn, Nigel W.T.; Hanna, W. Mark

    2001-10-16

    This paper describes the development of a comprehensive flow and salinity monitoring system and application of a decision support system (DSS) to improve management of seasonal wetlands in the San Joaquin Valley of California. The Environmental Protection Agency regulates salinity discharges from non-point sources to the San Joaquin River using a procedure known as the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) to allocate the assimilative capacity of the River for salt among watershed sources. Management of wetland sources of salt load will require the development of monitoring systems, more integrative management strategies and coordination with other entities. To obtain local cooperation the Grassland Water District, whose primary function is to supply surface water to private duck clubs and managed wetlands, needs to communicate to local landowners the likely impacts of salinity regulation on the long term health and function of wildfowl habitat. The project described in this paper will also provide this information. The models that form the backbone of the DSS develop salinity balances at both a regional and local scale. The regional scale concentrates on deliveries to and exports from the Grasland Water District while the local scale focuses on an individual wetland unit where more intensive monitoring is being conducted. The design of the DSS is constrained to meet the needs of busy wetland managers and is being designed from the bottom up utilizing tools and procedures familiar to these individuals.

  15. Adapting a GIS-Based Multicriteria Decision Analysis Approach for Evaluating New Power Generating Sites

    SciTech Connect

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Blevins, Brandon R; Jochem, Warren C; Mays, Gary T; Belles, Randy; Hadley, Stanton W; Harrison, Thomas J; Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Neish, Bradley S; Rose, Amy N

    2012-01-01

    There is a growing need to site new power generating plants that use cleaner energy sources due to increased regulations on air and water pollution and a sociopolitical desire to develop more clean energy sources. To assist utility and energy companies as well as policy-makers in evaluating potential areas for siting new plants in the contiguous United States, a geographic information system (GIS)-based multicriteria decision analysis approach is presented in this paper. The presented approach has led to the development of the Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion (OR-SAGE) tool. The tool takes inputs such as population growth, water availability, environmental indicators, and tectonic and geological hazards to provide an in-depth analysis for siting options. To the utility and energy companies, the tool can quickly and effectively provide feedback on land suitability based on technology specific inputs. However, the tool does not replace the required detailed evaluation of candidate sites. To the policy-makers, the tool provides the ability to analyze the impacts of future energy technology while balancing competing resource use.

  16. Distributed leadership and adaptive decision-making in the ant Tetramorium caespitum.

    PubMed

    Collignon, B; Detrain, C

    2010-04-22

    In the ant species Tetramorium caespitum, communication and foraging patterns rely on group-mass recruitment. Scouts having discovered food recruit nestmates and behave as leaders by guiding groups of recruits to the food location. After a while, a mass recruitment takes place in which foragers follow a chemical trail. Since group recruitment is crucial to the whole foraging process, we investigated whether food characteristics induce a tuning of recruiting stimuli by leaders that act upon the dynamics and size of recruited groups. High sucrose concentration triggers the exit of a higher number of groups that contain twice as many ants and reach the food source twice as fast than towards a weakly concentrated one. Similar trends were found depending on food accessibility: for a cut mealworm, accessibility to haemolymph results in a faster formation of larger groups than for an entire mealworm. These data provide the background for developing a stochastic model accounting for exploitation patterns by group-mass recruiting species. This model demonstrates how the modulations performed by leaders drive the colony to select the most profitable food source among several ones. Our results highlight how a minority of individuals can influence collective decisions in societies based on a distributed leadership.

  17. Heterogeneous preferences, decision-making capacity, and phase transitions in a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Wang, Wei; Chen, Yu; Huang, Jiping

    2009-05-26

    There has been a belief that with the directing power of the market, the efficient state of a resource-allocating system can eventually be reached even in a case where the resource is distributed in a biased way. To mimic the realistic huge system for the resource allocation, we designed and conducted a series of economic experiments. From the experiments we found that efficient allocation can be realized despite a lack of communications among the participants or any instructions to them. To explain the underlying mechanism, an extended minority game model called the market-directed resource allocation game (MDRAG) is constructed by introducing heterogeneous preferences into the strategy-building procedures. MDRAG can produce results in good agreement with the experiments. We investigated the influence of agents' decision-making capacity on the system behavior and the phase structure of the MDRAG model as well. A number of phase transitions are identified in the system. In the critical region, we found that the overall system will behave in an efficient, stable, and unpredictable mode in which the market's invisible hand can fully play its role.

  18. A GIS-based Adaptive Management Decision Support System to Develop a Multi-Objective Framework: A case study utilizing GIS technologies and physically-based models to archieve improved decision making for site management.

    SciTech Connect

    Coleman, Andre M.; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Lane, Leonard J.; Tagestad, Jerry D.; Roberts, Damon

    2008-06-26

    The notion of Adaptive Management (AM) allows for the realization and adjustment of management practices in response to elements of uncertainty. In terms of natural resource management, this will typically integrate monitoring, databases, simulation modeling, decision theory, and expert judgment to evaluate management alternatives and adapt them as necessary to continually improve the natural resource condition as defined by the stakeholders. Natural resource management scenarios can often be expressed, viewed, and understood as a spatial and temporal problem. The integration of Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies and physically-based models provide an effective state-of-the-art solution for deriving, understanding, and applying AM scenarios for land use and remediation. A recently developed GIS-based adaptive management decision support system is presented for the U.S. Department of Defense Yakima Training Center near Yakima, Washington.

  19. Adapt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bargatze, L. F.

    2015-12-01

    Active Data Archive Product Tracking (ADAPT) is a collection of software routines that permits one to generate XML metadata files to describe and register data products in support of the NASA Heliophysics Virtual Observatory VxO effort. ADAPT is also a philosophy. The ADAPT concept is to use any and all available metadata associated with scientific data to produce XML metadata descriptions in a consistent, uniform, and organized fashion to provide blanket access to the full complement of data stored on a targeted data server. In this poster, we present an application of ADAPT to describe all of the data products that are stored by using the Common Data File (CDF) format served out by the CDAWEB and SPDF data servers hosted at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. These data servers are the primary repositories for NASA Heliophysics data. For this purpose, the ADAPT routines have been used to generate data resource descriptions by using an XML schema named Space Physics Archive, Search, and Extract (SPASE). SPASE is the designated standard for documenting Heliophysics data products, as adopted by the Heliophysics Data and Model Consortium. The set of SPASE XML resource descriptions produced by ADAPT includes high-level descriptions of numerical data products, display data products, or catalogs and also includes low-level "Granule" descriptions. A SPASE Granule is effectively a universal access metadata resource; a Granule associates an individual data file (e.g. a CDF file) with a "parent" high-level data resource description, assigns a resource identifier to the file, and lists the corresponding assess URL(s). The CDAWEB and SPDF file systems were queried to provide the input required by the ADAPT software to create an initial set of SPASE metadata resource descriptions. Then, the CDAWEB and SPDF data repositories were queried subsequently on a nightly basis and the CDF file lists were checked for any changes such as the occurrence of new, modified, or deleted

  20. Scenario Discovery with Multiple Criteria: An Evaluation of the Robust Decision-Making Framework for Climate Change Adaptation.

    PubMed

    Shortridge, Julie E; Guikema, Seth D

    2016-12-01

    There is increasing concern over deep uncertainty in the risk analysis field as probabilistic models of uncertainty cannot always be confidently determined or agreed upon for many of our most pressing contemporary risk challenges. This is particularly true in the climate change adaptation field, and has prompted the development of a number of frameworks aiming to characterize system vulnerabilities and identify robust alternatives. One such methodology is robust decision making (RDM), which uses simulation models to assess how strategies perform over many plausible conditions and then identifies and characterizes those where the strategy fails in a process termed scenario discovery. While many of the problems to which RDM has been applied are characterized by multiple objectives, research to date has provided little insight into how treatment of multiple criteria impacts the failure scenarios identified. In this research, we compare different methods for incorporating multiple objectives into the scenario discovery process to evaluate how they impact the resulting failure scenarios. We use the Lake Tana basin in Ethiopia as a case study, where climatic and environmental uncertainties could impact multiple planned water infrastructure projects, and find that failure scenarios may vary depending on the method used to aggregate multiple criteria. Common methods used to convert multiple attributes into a single utility score can obscure connections between failure scenarios and system performance, limiting the information provided to support decision making. Applying scenario discovery over each performance metric separately provides more nuanced information regarding the relative sensitivity of the objectives to different uncertain parameters, leading to clearer insights on measures that could be taken to improve system robustness and areas where additional research might prove useful. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Interactive Genetic Algorithm - An Adaptive and Interactive Decision Support Framework for Design of Optimal Groundwater Monitoring Plans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babbar-Sebens, M.; Minsker, B. S.

    2006-12-01

    In the water resources management field, decision making encompasses many kinds of engineering, social, and economic constraints and objectives. Representing all of these problem dependant criteria through models (analytical or numerical) and various formulations (e.g., objectives, constraints, etc.) within an optimization- simulation system can be a very non-trivial issue. Most models and formulations utilized for discerning desirable traits in a solution can only approximate the decision maker's (DM) true preference criteria, and they often fail to consider important qualitative and incomputable phenomena related to the management problem. In our research, we have proposed novel decision support frameworks that allow DMs to actively participate in the optimization process. The DMs explicitly indicate their true preferences based on their subjective criteria and the results of various simulation models and formulations. The feedback from the DMs is then used to guide the search process towards solutions that are "all-rounders" from the perspective of the DM. The two main research questions explored in this work are: a) Does interaction between the optimization algorithm and a DM assist the system in searching for groundwater monitoring designs that are robust from the DM's perspective?, and b) How can an interactive search process be made more effective when human factors, such as human fatigue and cognitive learning processes, affect the performance of the algorithm? The application of these frameworks on a real-world groundwater long-term monitoring (LTM) case study in Michigan highlighted the following salient advantages: a) in contrast to the non-interactive optimization methodology, the proposed interactive frameworks were able to identify low cost monitoring designs whose interpolation maps respected the expected spatial distribution of the contaminants, b) for many same-cost designs, the interactive methodologies were able to propose multiple alternatives

  2. Real World Data in Adaptive Biomedical Innovation: A Framework for Generating Evidence Fit for Decision-Making.

    PubMed

    Schneeweiss, S; Eichler, H-G; Garcia-Altes, A; Chinn, C; Eggimann, A-V; Garner, S; Goettsch, W; Lim, R; Löbker, W; Martin, D; Müller, T; Park, B J; Platt, R; Priddy, S; Ruhl, M; Spooner, A; Vannieuwenhuyse, B; Willke, R J

    2016-12-01

    Analyses of healthcare databases (claims, electronic health records [EHRs]) are useful supplements to clinical trials for generating evidence on the effectiveness, harm, use, and value of medical products in routine care. A constant stream of data from the routine operation of modern healthcare systems, which can be analyzed in rapid cycles, enables incremental evidence development to support accelerated and appropriate access to innovative medicines. Evidentiary needs by regulators, Health Technology Assessment, payers, clinicians, and patients after marketing authorization comprise (1) monitoring of medication performance in routine care, including the materialized effectiveness, harm, and value; (2) identifying new patient strata with added value or unacceptable harms; and (3) monitoring targeted utilization. Adaptive biomedical innovation (ABI) with rapid cycle database analytics is successfully enabled if evidence is meaningful, valid, expedited, and transparent. These principles will bring rigor and credibility to current efforts to increase research efficiency while upholding evidentiary standards required for effective decision-making in healthcare. © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

  3. Nutrition labels in bar graph format deemed most useful for consumer purchase decisions using adaptive conjoint analysis.

    PubMed

    Geiger, C J; Wyse, B W; Parent, C R; Hansen, R G

    1991-07-01

    This study estimated the effects of changing multiple levels and combinations of nutrition information format, load, expression, and order on consumers' perceptions of label usefulness in purchase decisions using adaptive conjoint analysis. A shopping mall intercept survey, which was administered by a marketing research firm, assessed consumer preferences for 12 label alternatives produced on Campbell's soup cans to portray nutrition information realistically; 252 of 258 respondents completed the computer interactive interview. Consumers significantly preferred the bar graph format to the bar graph/nutrient density and traditional label formats. Consumers considered the bar graph/nutrient density format to be as useful as the traditional label format. There was a highly significant difference among the three levels of information load; the most information load was preferred regardless of nutrient importance. Consumers significantly preferred nutrition information stated in absolute numbers and percentages vs in absolute numbers only in traditional, or in percentages only expressions. There was a significant difference between consumer preferences for the two types of information order. The findings indicate that consumers clearly preferred the nutrition label that displayed all nutrient values using a bar graph format, offered the most information load, and expressed nutrient values using both absolute numbers and percentages. Consumers also preferred nutrition information rearranged in an order that grouped nutrients that should be consumed in adequate amounts on the top, calories in the middle, and nutrients that should be consumed in lesser amounts on the bottom of the label.

  4. Peircean Theory, Psychosemiotics, and Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Howard A.

    2005-01-01

    The main aim of this article is to describe central elements of, and the relationships among, three interrelated domains of inquiry. The first domain is Charles Peirce's semiotic theory which offers five concepts of special relevance to the other two domains: (a) primary components of the triadic sign, including the object, representamen, and…

  5. Can Conservation Contracts Co-exist with Change? Payment for Ecosystem Services in the Context of Adaptive Decision-Making and Sustainability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayes, Tanya; Murtinho, Felipe; Cárdenas Camacho, Luis Mario; Crespo, Patricio; McHugh, Sarah; Salmerón, David

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the ability of payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs to operate in the context of dynamic and complex social-ecological systems. Drawing on the experiences of two different PES programs in Latin America, we examine how PES institutions fit with the tenets of adaptive decision-making for sustainable resource management. We identify how the program goals and the connection to the market influence the incentive structure, information gathering, learning and feedback processes, and the structure of decision-making rights, specifically the ability to make and modify resource-use rules. Although limited in their generalizability, findings from the two case studies suggest a tension between the contractual model of PES and adaptive decision-making in natural resource systems. PES programs are not inherently decentralized, flexible management tools, as PES contracts tend to restrict decision-making rights and offer minimal flexibility mechanisms to change resource-use practices over the duration of the contract period. Furthermore, PES design and flexibility is heavily dependent on the goals and mission of the buyer and the respective market. If PES is to facilitate sustainable resource management, greater attention is needed to assess how the institutional design of the PES contracts influence the motivation and capacity of participants and program officers alike to adaptively manage the respective resource systems.

  6. Can conservation contracts co-exist with change? Payment for ecosystem services in the context of adaptive decision-making and sustainability.

    PubMed

    Hayes, Tanya; Murtinho, Felipe; Cárdenas Camacho, Luis Mario; Crespo, Patricio; McHugh, Sarah; Salmerón, David

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the ability of payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs to operate in the context of dynamic and complex social-ecological systems. Drawing on the experiences of two different PES programs in Latin America, we examine how PES institutions fit with the tenets of adaptive decision-making for sustainable resource management. We identify how the program goals and the connection to the market influence the incentive structure, information gathering, learning and feedback processes, and the structure of decision-making rights, specifically the ability to make and modify resource-use rules. Although limited in their generalizability, findings from the two case studies suggest a tension between the contractual model of PES and adaptive decision-making in natural resource systems. PES programs are not inherently decentralized, flexible management tools, as PES contracts tend to restrict decision-making rights and offer minimal flexibility mechanisms to change resource-use practices over the duration of the contract period. Furthermore, PES design and flexibility is heavily dependent on the goals and mission of the buyer and the respective market. If PES is to facilitate sustainable resource management, greater attention is needed to assess how the institutional design of the PES contracts influence the motivation and capacity of participants and program officers alike to adaptively manage the respective resource systems.

  7. When 'solutions of yesterday become problems of today': crisis-ridden decision making in a complex adaptive system (CAS)--the Additional Duty Hours Allowance in Ghana.

    PubMed

    Agyepong, Irene Akua; Kodua, Augustina; Adjei, Sam; Adam, Taghreed

    2012-10-01

    Implementation of policies (decisions) in the health sector is sometimes defeated by the system's response to the policy itself. This can lead to counter-intuitive, unanticipated, or more modest effects than expected by those who designed the policy. The health sector fits the characteristics of complex adaptive systems (CAS) and complexity is at the heart of this phenomenon. Anticipating both positive and negative effects of policy decisions, understanding the interests, power and interaction between multiple actors; and planning for the delayed and distal impact of policy decisions are essential for effective decision making in CAS. Failure to appreciate these elements often leads to a series of reductionist approach interventions or 'fixes'. This in turn can initiate a series of negative feedback loops that further complicates the situation over time. In this paper we use a case study of the Additional Duty Hours Allowance (ADHA) policy in Ghana to illustrate these points. Using causal loop diagrams, we unpack the intended and unintended effects of the policy and how these effects evolved over time. The overall goal is to advance our understanding of decision making in complex adaptive systems; and through this process identify some essential elements in formulating, updating and implementing health policy that can help to improve attainment of desired outcomes and minimize negative unintended effects.

  8. An adaptive approach to invasive plant management on U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service-owned native prairies in the Prairie Pothole Region: decision support under uncertainity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gannon, Jill J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Flanders-Wanner, Bridgette

    2011-01-01

    Much of the native prairie managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is extensively invaded by the introduced cool-season grasses smooth brome (Bromus inermis) and Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis). The central challenge to managers is selecting appropriate management actions in the face of biological and environmental uncertainties. We describe the technical components of a USGS management project, and explain how the components integrate and inform each other, how data feedback from individual cooperators serves to reduce uncertainty across the whole region, and how a successful adaptive management project is coordinated and maintained on a large scale. In partnership with the Service, the U.S. Geological Survey is developing an adaptive decision support framework to assist managers in selecting management actions under uncertainty and maximizing learning from management outcomes. The framework is built around practical constraints faced by refuge managers and includes identification of the management objective and strategies, analysis of uncertainty and construction of competing decision models, monitoring, and mechanisms for model feedback and decision selection. Nineteen Service field stations, spanning four states of the PPR, are participating in the project. They share a common management objective, available management strategies, and biological uncertainties. While the scope is broad, the project interfaces with individual land managers who provide refuge-specific information and receive updated decision guidance that incorporates understanding gained from the collective experience of all cooperators.

  9. [The adaptation and validation to Spanish of the questionnaire Aid to Capacity Evaluation (ACE), for the assessment of the ability of patients in medical decision-making].

    PubMed

    Moraleda Barba, Sandra; Ballesta Rodríguez, M Isabel; Delgado Quero, Antonio Luis; Lietor Villajos, Norberto; Moreno Corredor, Andrés; Delgado Rodríguez, Miguel

    2015-03-01

    To adapt and validate the Spanish version of the Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale, designed to assess the capacity of the adult in medical decision-making, both in diagnosis and treatment processes. Observational study of prospective validation. Primary and hospital care of the basic health area of Jaen. One hundred twenty-nine patients. Questionnaire which included sociodemographic variables, concerning the decision (scope, type of decision, the need for written informed consent), assessment of the capacity to the Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale and other related comorbidity (hearing loss, alcoholism, cognitive level variables with the Mini-Mental State Examination and depression by Goldberg or Yesavage test). The tool is considered viable. The conclusions of the expert panel were favorable. The result of the criteria' validity, comparing the results with the assessment of the experts (forensic and psychiatrist) was very satisfying (P<.001). The intra-observer reliability was low (kappa=0,135). Interobserver reliability remained high (kappa=0.74). The internal consistency was awarded an alpha of Cronbach's 0,645 for the reduced model of 6 items. The Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale was adapted to Spanish, demonstrating adequate internal consistency and construct validity. Its use in clinical practice could contribute to the identification of patients unable to make a particular medical decision and/or to give an informed consent. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  10. Adaptive management on the central Platte River--science, engineering, and decision analysis to assist in the recovery of four species.

    PubMed

    Smith, Chadwin B

    2011-05-01

    Active adaptive management is the centerpiece of a major species recovery program now underway on the central Platte River in Nebraska. The Platte River Recovery Implementation Program initiated on January 1, 2007 and is a joint effort between the states of Colorado, Wyoming, and Nebraska; the U.S. Department of the Interior; waters users; and conservation groups. This program is intended to address issues related to endangered species and loss of habitat along the Platte River in central Nebraska by managing land and water resources and using adaptive management as its science framework. The adaptive management plan provides a systematic process to test hypotheses and apply the information learned to improve management on the ground, and is centered on conceptual models and priority hypotheses that reflect different interpretations of how river processes work and the best approach to meeting key objectives. This framework reveals a shared attempt to use the best available science to implement experiments, learn, and revise management actions accordingly on the Platte River. This paper focuses on the status of adaptive management implementation on the Platte, experimental and habitat design issues, and the use of decision analysis tools to help set objectives and guide decisions. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A Re-Evaluation of Achromatic Spatiotemporal Vision: Nonoriented Filters are Monocular, they Adapt and Can be Used for Decision-Making at High Flicker Speeds

    PubMed Central

    Meese, Tim S.

    2011-01-01

    Masking, adaptation, and summation paradigms have been used to investigate the characteristics of early spatiotemporal vision. Each has been taken to provide evidence for (i) oriented and (ii) nonoriented spatial filtering mechanisms. However, subsequent findings suggest that the evidence for nonoriented mechanisms has been misinterpreted: possibly, those experiments revealed the characteristics of suppression (e.g., gain control) not excitation, or merely the isotropic subunits of the oriented detecting-mechanisms. To shed light on this, we used all three paradigms to focus on the “high-speed” corner of spatiotemporal vision (low spatial frequency, high temporal frequency) where cross-oriented achromatic effects are greatest. We used flickering Gabor patches as targets and a 2IFC procedure for monocular, binocular and dichoptic stimulus presentations. To account for our results we devised a simple model involving an isotropic monocular filter-stage feeding orientation-tuned binocular filters. Both filter stages are adaptable and their outputs are available to the decision-stage following nonlinear contrast transduction. However, the monocular isotropic filters adapt only to high-speed stimuli—consistent with a magnocellular sub-cortical substrate—and benefit decision making only for high-speed stimuli. According to this model, the visual processes revealed by masking, adaptation and summation are related but not identical.

  12. Adaptive error detection for HDR/PDR brachytherapy: Guidance for decision making during real-time in vivo point dosimetry

    SciTech Connect

    Kertzscher, Gustavo Andersen, Claus E.; Tanderup, Kari

    2014-05-15

    Purpose: This study presents an adaptive error detection algorithm (AEDA) for real-timein vivo point dosimetry during high dose rate (HDR) or pulsed dose rate (PDR) brachytherapy (BT) where the error identification, in contrast to existing approaches, does not depend on an a priori reconstruction of the dosimeter position. Instead, the treatment is judged based on dose rate comparisons between measurements and calculations of the most viable dosimeter position provided by the AEDA in a data driven approach. As a result, the AEDA compensates for false error cases related to systematic effects of the dosimeter position reconstruction. Given its nearly exclusive dependence on stable dosimeter positioning, the AEDA allows for a substantially simplified and time efficient real-time in vivo BT dosimetry implementation. Methods: In the event of a measured potential treatment error, the AEDA proposes the most viable dosimeter position out of alternatives to the original reconstruction by means of a data driven matching procedure between dose rate distributions. If measured dose rates do not differ significantly from the most viable alternative, the initial error indication may be attributed to a mispositioned or misreconstructed dosimeter (false error). However, if the error declaration persists, no viable dosimeter position can be found to explain the error, hence the discrepancy is more likely to originate from a misplaced or misreconstructed source applicator or from erroneously connected source guide tubes (true error). Results: The AEDA applied on twoin vivo dosimetry implementations for pulsed dose rate BT demonstrated that the AEDA correctly described effects responsible for initial error indications. The AEDA was able to correctly identify the major part of all permutations of simulated guide tube swap errors and simulated shifts of individual needles from the original reconstruction. Unidentified errors corresponded to scenarios where the dosimeter position was

  13. Usability evaluation and adaptation of the e-health Personal Patient Profile-Prostate decision aid for Spanish-speaking Latino men.

    PubMed

    Berry, Donna L; Halpenny, Barbara; Bosco, Jaclyn L F; Bruyere, John; Sanda, Martin G

    2015-07-24

    The Personal Patient Profile-Prostate (P3P), a web-based decision aid, was demonstrated to reduce decisional conflict in English-speaking men with localized prostate cancer early after initial diagnosis. The purpose of this study was to explore and enhance usability and cultural appropriateness of a Spanish P3P by Latino men with a diagnosis of prostate cancer. P3P was translated to Spanish and back-translated by three native Spanish-speaking translators working independently. Spanish-speaking Latino men with a diagnosis of localized prostate cancer, who had made treatment decisions in the past 24 months, were recruited from two urban clinical care sites. Individual cognitive interviews were conducted by two bilingual research assistants as each participant used the Spanish P3P. Notes of user behavior, feedback, and answers to direct questions about comprehension, usability and perceived usefulness were analyzed and categorized. Seven participants with a range of education levels identified 25 unique usability issues in navigation, content comprehension and completeness, sociocultural appropriateness, and methodology. Revisions were prioritized to refine the usability and cultural and linguistic appropriateness of the decision aid. Usability issues were discovered that are potential barriers to effective decision support. Successful use of decision aids requires adaptation and testing beyond translation. Our findings led to revisions further refining the usability and linguistic and cultural appropriateness of Spanish P3P.

  14. Adaptive Allocation of Decision Making Responsibility Between Human and Computer in Multi-Task Situations. Ph.D. Thesis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chu, Y. Y.

    1978-01-01

    A unified formulation of computer-aided, multi-task, decision making is presented. Strategy for the allocation of decision making responsibility between human and computer is developed. The plans of a flight management systems are studied. A model based on the queueing theory was implemented.

  15. A decision-theoretic approach in the design of an adaptive upper-limb stroke rehabilitation robot.

    PubMed

    Huq, Rajibul; Kan, Patricia; Goetschalckx, Robby; Hébert, Debbie; Hoey, Jesse; Mihailidis, Alex

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents an automated system for a rehabilitation robotic device that guides stroke patients through an upper-limb reaching task. The system uses a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) as its primary engine for decision-making. The POMDP allows the system to automatically modify exercise parameters to account for the specific needs and abilities of different individuals, and to use these parameters to take appropriate decisions about stroke rehabilitation exercises. The performance of the system was evaluated through various simulations and by comparing the decisions made by the system with those of a human therapist for a single patient. In general, the simulations showed promising results and the therapist thought the system decisions were believable.

  16. Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

    2016-04-01

    Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing

  17. Analysis of Swedish Forest Owners' Information and Knowledge-Sharing Networks for Decision-Making: Insights for Climate Change Communication and Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    André, Karin; Baird, Julia; Gerger Swartling, Åsa; Vulturius, Gregor; Plummer, Ryan

    2017-06-01

    To further the understanding of climate change adaptation processes, more attention needs to be paid to the various contextual factors that shape whether and how climate-related knowledge and information is received and acted upon by actors involved. This study sets out to examine the characteristics of forest owners' in Sweden, the information and knowledge-sharing networks they draw upon for decision-making, and their perceptions of climate risks, their forests' resilience, the need for adaptation, and perceived adaptive capacity. By applying the concept of ego-network analysis, the empirical data was generated by a quantitative survey distributed to 3000 private forest owners' in Sweden in 2014 with a response rate of 31%. The results show that there is a positive correlation, even though it is generally weak, between forest owner climate perceptions and (i) network features, i.e. network size and heterogeneity, and (ii) presence of certain alter groups (i.e. network members or actors). Results indicate that forest owners' social networks currently serve only a minimal function of sharing knowledge of climate change and adaptation. Moreover, considering the fairly infrequent contact between respondents and alter groups, the timing of knowledge sharing is important. In conclusion we suggest those actors that forest owners' most frequently communicate with, especially forestry experts providing advisory services (e.g. forest owner associations, companies, and authorities) have a clear role to communicate both the risks of climate change and opportunities for adaptation. Peers are valuable in connecting information about climate risks and adaptation to the actual forest property.

  18. Analysis of Swedish Forest Owners' Information and Knowledge-Sharing Networks for Decision-Making: Insights for Climate Change Communication and Adaptation.

    PubMed

    André, Karin; Baird, Julia; Gerger Swartling, Åsa; Vulturius, Gregor; Plummer, Ryan

    2017-06-01

    To further the understanding of climate change adaptation processes, more attention needs to be paid to the various contextual factors that shape whether and how climate-related knowledge and information is received and acted upon by actors involved. This study sets out to examine the characteristics of forest owners' in Sweden, the information and knowledge-sharing networks they draw upon for decision-making, and their perceptions of climate risks, their forests' resilience, the need for adaptation, and perceived adaptive capacity. By applying the concept of ego-network analysis, the empirical data was generated by a quantitative survey distributed to 3000 private forest owners' in Sweden in 2014 with a response rate of 31%. The results show that there is a positive correlation, even though it is generally weak, between forest owner climate perceptions and (i) network features, i.e. network size and heterogeneity, and (ii) presence of certain alter groups (i.e. network members or actors). Results indicate that forest owners' social networks currently serve only a minimal function of sharing knowledge of climate change and adaptation. Moreover, considering the fairly infrequent contact between respondents and alter groups, the timing of knowledge sharing is important. In conclusion we suggest those actors that forest owners' most frequently communicate with, especially forestry experts providing advisory services (e.g. forest owner associations, companies, and authorities) have a clear role to communicate both the risks of climate change and opportunities for adaptation. Peers are valuable in connecting information about climate risks and adaptation to the actual forest property.

  19. Can Protection Motivation Theory explain farmers'adaptation to Climate change/variability decision making in the Gambia?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bagagnan, A. R.

    2016-12-01

    In the Gambia, Changes in the climate pattern has affected and continue to affect the agriculture sector and therefore calling for effective adaptation policies. The present study aimed to explain farmers' adoption of climate change adaptation measure through the protection motivation theory in The Central River Region of The Gambia. Primary data were collected in all the eight communities of the study area. A transect walk was conducted first followed by a survey with 283 informants. The perception variables were referring to the past 20 years while the stated implementation was addressing the current adaptation practices. Results showed that on one hand, most of the perception variables such as severity, ability to withstand, and internal barriers are significantly correlated to protection motivation and on the other hand Protection motivation and stated implementation for water conservation technique are strongly correlated. Structural Equation Modeling confirms the mediation role of Protection motivation between Farmers stated implementation and their perception of climate variability. Decrease in soil water storage capacity, degradation of the quality of soil surface structure, decrease of the length of the growing season are factors that motivate farmers to implement an adaptation measure. Cost of the implementation and farmers' vulnerability are factors that prevent farmers to implement an adaptation measure. The cost of the implementation is the main barrier to farmers `protection motivation. Therefore the study suggested that farmers' awareness about climate change/variability should be increased through farmers' field school and awareness campaigns, farmers' resilience should be improved and adaptation measures should be made accessible to farmers through loans facilities and subsidizes application.

  20. Conflict adaptation within but not across NoGo decision criteria: Event-related-potential evidence of specificity in the contextual modulation of cognitive control.

    PubMed

    Feldman, Julia L; Clark, Sheri L; Freitas, Antonio L

    2015-07-01

    From the standpoint of conflict-monitoring theory (Botvinick et al., 2001), detecting an incident of information-processing conflict should attenuate the disruptive influence of information-processing conflicts encountered subsequently, by which time cognitive-control operations will have been engaged. To examine the generality of this conflict-adaptation process across task dimensions, the present research analyzed event-related potentials in a Go/NoGo task that randomly varied the NoGo decision criterion applied across trials. Sequential analyses revealed reduced-amplitude fronto-central N2 and NoGo P3 responses on the second of two consecutive NoGo trials. Importantly, both of these conflict-adaptation effects were present only when the same NoGo decision criterion was applied across trials n and n-1. These findings support the theory that encountering information-processing conflict focuses attention on specific stimulus-response contingencies (Verguts & Notebaert, 2009) rather than engages general cognitive-control mechanisms (Freitas & Clark, 2015). Further implications for the generality of cognitive control are discussed.

  1. LandCaRe DSS--an interactive decision support system for climate change impact assessment and the analysis of potential agricultural land use adaptation strategies.

    PubMed

    Wenkel, Karl-Otto; Berg, Michael; Mirschel, Wilfried; Wieland, Ralf; Nendel, Claas; Köstner, Barbara

    2013-09-01

    Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously

  2. Use of a Computerized Adaptive Testing Model for ESOL/Bilingual Entry/Exit Decision Making: A Preliminary Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gross, Susan; Stevenson, Jose W.

    1986-01-01

    Presents the preliminary results of a comparison of Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT) and conventional testing of English competency for students with limited English proficiency. The CAT procedure, which uses computers and a measurement theory known as Item Response Theory (IRT), provides several benefits that traditional paper and pencil…

  3. GRADE Evidence to Decision (EtD) frameworks for adoption, adaptation, and de novo development of trustworthy recommendations: GRADE-ADOLOPMENT.

    PubMed

    Schünemann, Holger J; Wiercioch, Wojtek; Brozek, Jan; Etxeandia-Ikobaltzeta, Itziar; Mustafa, Reem A; Manja, Veena; Brignardello-Petersen, Romina; Neumann, Ignacio; Falavigna, Maicon; Alhazzani, Waleed; Santesso, Nancy; Zhang, Yuan; Meerpohl, Jörg J; Morgan, Rebecca L; Rochwerg, Bram; Darzi, Andrea; Rojas, Maria Ximenas; Carrasco-Labra, Alonso; Adi, Yaser; AlRayees, Zulfa; Riva, John; Bollig, Claudia; Moore, Ainsley; Yepes-Nuñez, Juan José; Cuello, Carlos; Waziry, Reem; Akl, Elie A

    2017-01-01

    Guideline developers can: (1) adopt existing recommendations from others; (2) adapt existing recommendations to their own context; or (3) create recommendations de novo. Monetary and nonmonetary resources, credibility, maximization of uptake, as well as logical arguments should guide the choice of the approach and processes. To describe a potentially efficient model for guideline production based on adoption, adaptation, and/or de novo development of recommendations utilizing the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) Evidence to Decision (EtD) frameworks. We applied the model in a new national guideline program producing 22 practice guidelines. We searched for relevant evidence that informs the direction and strength of a recommendation. We then produced GRADE EtDs for guideline panels to develop recommendations. We produced a total of 80 EtD frameworks in approximately 4 months and 146 EtDs in approximately 6 months in two waves. Use of the EtD frameworks allowed panel members understand judgments of others about the criteria that bear on guideline recommendations and then make their own judgments about those criteria in a systematic approach. The "GRADE-ADOLOPMENT" approach to guideline production combines adoption, adaptation, and, as needed, de novo development of recommendations. If developers of guidelines follow EtD criteria more widely and make their work publically available, this approach should prove even more useful. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Opportunistic management of estuaries under climate change: A new adaptive decision-making framework and its practical application.

    PubMed

    Peirson, William; Davey, Erica; Jones, Alan; Hadwen, Wade; Bishop, Keith; Beger, Maria; Capon, Samantha; Fairweather, Peter; Creese, Bob; Smith, Timothy F; Gray, Leigh; Tomlinson, Rodger

    2015-11-01

    Ongoing coastal development and the prospect of severe climate change impacts present pressing estuary management and governance challenges. Robust approaches must recognise the intertwined social and ecological vulnerabilities of estuaries. Here, a new governance and management framework is proposed that recognises the integrated social-ecological systems of estuaries so as to permit transformative adaptation to climate change within these systems. The framework lists stakeholders and identifies estuarine uses and values. Goals are categorised that are specific to ecosystems, private property, public infrastructure, and human communities. Systematic adaptation management strategies are proposed with conceptual examples and associated governance approaches. Contrasting case studies are used to illustrate the practical application of these ideas. The framework will assist estuary managers worldwide to achieve their goals, minimise maladaptative responses, better identify competing interests, reduce stakeholder conflict and exploit opportunities for appropriate ecosystem restoration and sustainable development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Adaptive Design of a Decision Support System for Dynamic Retasking of CAS (Close Air Support) and BAI (Battlefield Air Interdiction)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-12-01

    Air University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Information Systems NT! NTIS C9A&I V PeterW.Hoak, B.A...34.,’, * "€’? ,.....’..,:’. v -, . ... f _:-,’.’ .’ ,,?,: :"-:", ,,"-; III. Applying Adaptive Design to the Problem .......................................... 37...63 Selecting a Generator .......................................................... . 64 V . Conclusions

  6. The ASLOTS concept: An interactive, adaptive decision support concept for Final Approach Spacing of Aircraft (FASA). FAA-NASA Joint University Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simpson, Robert W.

    1993-01-01

    This presentation outlines a concept for an adaptive, interactive decision support system to assist controllers at a busy airport in achieving efficient use of multiple runways. The concept is being implemented as a computer code called FASA (Final Approach Spacing for Aircraft), and will be tested and demonstrated in ATCSIM, a high fidelity simulation of terminal area airspace and airport surface operations. Objectives are: (1) to provide automated cues to assist controllers in the sequencing and spacing of landing and takeoff aircraft; (2) to provide the controller with a limited ability to modify the sequence and spacings between aircraft, and to insert takeoffs and missed approach aircraft in the landing flows; (3) to increase spacing accuracy using more complex and precise separation criteria while reducing controller workload; and (4) achieve higher operational takeoff and landing rates on multiple runways in poor visibility.

  7. [The territorial expression of health-service planning: scenarios for shared decision-making on the development and adaptation of services on a territorial level].

    PubMed

    Fusté, Josep; Frigola, David; Olivet, Miquel

    2008-12-01

    To apply planning criteria on a territorial level, with a forward-looking approach and taking into account the specificities of each location, in the Health Map of Catalonia, scenarios have been constructed for the development and adaptation of services for the 2015 horizon. The territorial scale is that of the 37 areas into which Catalonia has been divided in order to promote a new form of decentralised, combined decision- making, through the Territorial Health Governments. The new territorial health organisation is the substrate which must enable the relationship between professionals and services that share the same reference population to be coordinated. This article deals with the methodology for constructing the scenarios, and a summary is given of the principal action proposals which arise from the map in the aforementioned 37 territories. Detailed content of the territorial scenarios is also given, based on two practical cases.

  8. Variation in Hospital Length of Stay: Do Physicians Adapt Their Length of Stay Decisions to What Is Usual in the Hospital Where They Work?

    PubMed Central

    de Jong, Judith D; Westert, Gert P; Lagoe, Ronald; Groenewegen, Peter P

    2006-01-01

    Objective To test the hypothesis that physicians who work in different hospitals adapt their length of stay decisions to what is usual in the hospital under consideration. Data Sources Secondary data were used, originating from the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS). SPARCS is a major management tool for assisting hospitals, agencies, and health care organizations with decision making in relation to financial planning and monitoring of inpatient and ambulatory surgery services and costs in New York state. Study Design Data on length of stay for surgical interventions and medical conditions (a total of seven diagnosis-related groups [DRGs]) were studied, to find out whether there is more variation between than within hospitals. Data (1999, 2000, and 2001) from all hospitals in New York state were used. The study examined physicians practicing in one hospital and physicians practicing in more than one hospital, to determine whether average length of stay differs according to the hospital of practice. Multilevel models were used to determine variation between and within hospitals. A t-test was used to test whether length of stay for patients of each multihospital physician differed from the average length of stay in each of the two hospitals. Principal Findings There is significantly (p<.05) more variation between than within hospitals in most of the study populations. Physicians working in two hospitals had patient lengths of stay comparable with the usual practice in the hospital where the procedure was performed. The proportion of physicians working in one hospital did not have a consistent effect for all DRGs on the variation within hospitals. Conclusion Physicians adapt to their colleagues or to the managerial demands of the particular hospital in which they work. The hospital and broader work environment should be taken into account when developing effective interventions to reduce variation in medical practice. PMID:16584454

  9. Adaptation of a Published Risk Model to Point-of-care Clinical Decision Support Tailored to Local Workflow.

    PubMed

    Sobel, Jeffrey L; Baker, Craig C; Levy, David; Cain, Carol H

    2015-01-01

    Electronic clinical decision support can bring newly published knowledge to the point of care. However, local organizational buy-in, support for team workflows, IT system ease of use and other sociotechnical factors are needed to promote adoption. We successfully implemented a multi-variate cardiac risk stratification model from another institution into ours. We recreated the model and integrated it into our workflow, accessing it from our EHR with patient-specific data and facilitating clinical documentation if the user accepts the model results. Our clinical leaders championed the change and led educational dissemination efforts. We describe the ad-hoc social and technical collaboration needed to build and deploy the tool. The tool complements a clinical initiative within a community of practice, and is correlated with appropriate use of nuclear imaging.

  10. Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning

    PubMed Central

    Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status. PMID:26808087

  11. Ligand Classifier of Adaptively Boosting Ensemble Decision Stumps (LiCABEDS) and its application on modeling ligand functionality for 5HT-subtype GPCR families.

    PubMed

    Ma, Chao; Wang, Lirong; Xie, Xiang-Qun

    2011-03-28

    Advanced high-throughput screening (HTS) technologies generate great amounts of bioactivity data, and this data needs to be analyzed and interpreted with attention to understand how these small molecules affect biological systems. As such, there is an increasing demand to develop and adapt cheminformatics algorithms and tools in order to predict molecular and pharmacological properties on the basis of these large data sets. In this manuscript, we report a novel machine-learning-based ligand classification algorithm, named Ligand Classifier of Adaptively Boosting Ensemble Decision Stumps (LiCABEDS), for data-mining and modeling of large chemical data sets to predict pharmacological properties in an efficient and accurate manner. The performance of LiCABEDS was evaluated through predicting GPCR ligand functionality (agonist or antagonist) using four different molecular fingerprints, including Maccs, FP2, Unity, and Molprint 2D fingerprints. Our studies showed that LiCABEDS outperformed two other popular techniques, classification tree and Naive Bayes classifier, on all four types of molecular fingerprints. Parameters in LiCABEDS, including the number of boosting iterations, initialization condition, and a "reject option" boundary, were thoroughly explored and discussed to demonstrate the capability of handling imbalanced data sets, as well as its robustness and flexibility. In addition, the detailed mathematical concepts and theory are also given to address the principle behind statistical prediction models. The LiCABEDS algorithm has been implemented into a user-friendly software package that is accessible online at http://www.cbligand.org/LiCABEDS/ .

  12. Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning.

    PubMed

    Siña, Mariella; Wood, Rachel C; Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status.

  13. An engineered approach to stem cell culture: automating the decision process for real-time adaptive subculture of stem cells.

    PubMed

    Ker, Dai Fei Elmer; Weiss, Lee E; Junkers, Silvina N; Chen, Mei; Yin, Zhaozheng; Sandbothe, Michael F; Huh, Seung-il; Eom, Sungeun; Bise, Ryoma; Osuna-Highley, Elvira; Kanade, Takeo; Campbell, Phil G

    2011-01-01

    Current cell culture practices are dependent upon human operators and remain laborious and highly subjective, resulting in large variations and inconsistent outcomes, especially when using visual assessments of cell confluency to determine the appropriate time to subculture cells. Although efforts to automate cell culture with robotic systems are underway, the majority of such systems still require human intervention to determine when to subculture. Thus, it is necessary to accurately and objectively determine the appropriate time for cell passaging. Optimal stem cell culturing that maintains cell pluripotency while maximizing cell yields will be especially important for efficient, cost-effective stem cell-based therapies. Toward this goal we developed a real-time computer vision-based system that monitors the degree of cell confluency with a precision of 0.791±0.031 and recall of 0.559±0.043. The system consists of an automated phase-contrast time-lapse microscope and a server. Multiple dishes are sequentially imaged and the data is uploaded to the server that performs computer vision processing, predicts when cells will exceed a pre-defined threshold for optimal cell confluency, and provides a Web-based interface for remote cell culture monitoring. Human operators are also notified via text messaging and e-mail 4 hours prior to reaching this threshold and immediately upon reaching this threshold. This system was successfully used to direct the expansion of a paradigm stem cell population, C2C12 cells. Computer-directed and human-directed control subcultures required 3 serial cultures to achieve the theoretical target cell yield of 50 million C2C12 cells and showed no difference for myogenic and osteogenic differentiation. This automated vision-based system has potential as a tool toward adaptive real-time control of subculturing, cell culture optimization and quality assurance/quality control, and it could be integrated with current and developing robotic cell

  14. Usability testing of Avoiding Diabetes Thru Action Plan Targeting (ADAPT) decision support for integrating care-based counseling of pre-diabetes in an electronic health record.

    PubMed

    Chrimes, Dillon; Kitos, Nicole R; Kushniruk, Andre; Mann, Devin M

    2014-09-01

    Usability testing can be used to evaluate human-computer interaction (HCI) and communication in shared decision making (SDM) for patient-provider behavioral change and behavioral contracting. Traditional evaluations of usability using scripted or mock patient scenarios with think-aloud protocol analysis provide a way to identify HCI issues. In this paper we describe the application of these methods in the evaluation of the Avoiding Diabetes Thru Action Plan Targeting (ADAPT) tool, and test the usability of the tool to support the ADAPT framework for integrated care counseling of pre-diabetes. The think-aloud protocol analysis typically does not provide an assessment of how patient-provider interactions are effected in "live" clinical workflow or whether a tool is successful. Therefore, "Near-live" clinical simulations involving applied simulation methods were used to compliment the think-aloud results. This complementary usability technique was used to test the end-user HCI and tool performance by more closely mimicking the clinical workflow and capturing interaction sequences along with assessing the functionality of computer module prototypes on clinician workflow. We expected this method to further complement and provide different usability findings as compared to think-aloud analysis. Together, this mixed method evaluation provided comprehensive and realistic feedback for iterative refinement of the ADAPT system prior to implementation. The study employed two phases of testing of a new interactive ADAPT tool that embedded an evidence-based shared goal setting component into primary care workflow for dealing with pre-diabetes counseling within a commercial physician office electronic health record (EHR). Phase I applied usability testing that involved "think-aloud" protocol analysis of eight primary care providers interacting with several scripted clinical scenarios. Phase II used "near-live" clinical simulations of five providers interacting with standardized

  15. Foundations for Reasoning in Cognition-Based Computational Representations of Human Decision Making

    SciTech Connect

    SENGLAUB, MICHAEL E.; HARRIS, DAVID L.; RAYBOURN, ELAINE M.

    2001-11-01

    In exploring the question of how humans reason in ambiguous situations or in the absence of complete information, we stumbled onto a body of knowledge that addresses issues beyond the original scope of our effort. We have begun to understand the importance that philosophy, in particular the work of C. S. Peirce, plays in developing models of human cognition and of information theory in general. We have a foundation that can serve as a basis for further studies in cognition and decision making. Peircean philosophy provides a foundation for understanding human reasoning and capturing behavioral characteristics of decision makers due to cultural, physiological, and psychological effects. The present paper describes this philosophical approach to understanding the underpinnings of human reasoning. We present the work of C. S. Peirce, and define sets of fundamental reasoning behavior that would be captured in the mathematical constructs of these newer technologies and would be able to interact in an agent type framework. Further, we propose the adoption of a hybrid reasoning model based on his work for future computational representations or emulations of human cognition.

  16. Veridical and Adaptive Decision Making

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-10-01

    correlated. These results are consistent with the studies using various patient groups (e.g., TBI; and multiple sclerosis ) that have found PVSAT performance...Substitution; Procedural Reaction Time; Math Processing; Matching to Sample; and Go/No-Go. Middle Eastern City (VRPASAT): While virtually ambulating ...Lewis/Madigan Army Medical Center to develop the database. After multiple iterations, we have developed a database that represents the structure

  17. An Integrated Framework to Analyze Local Decision Making and Adaptation to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Regions in Santos-Brazil, Broward County-USA and Selsey-UK

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marengo, J. A.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Pelling, M.; Reynolds, C. J.; Merril, S. B.; Nunes, L. H.; Paterson, S.; Gray, A.; Lockman, J. T.; Kartez, J.; Moreira, F.; Greco, R.; Harari, J.; Souza, C. G.; Alves, L. M.; Hosokawa, E.; Tabuchi, E.

    2016-12-01

    One of the clear signals of present climate change is sea level rise (SLR). There is mounting evidence of other changes, including warmer temperatures in many localities, and changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme meteorological events, including wind, rain, and waves. A rising sea level combined with these factors and tides is expected to affect coastal communities through a number of processes, including increased risk of flooding and contamination of water sources. An international collaboration between Brazil, the United Kingdom, and the United States was designed to evaluate local decision making processes and to open convening space for local urban managers to reflect on possible actions toward adaption to SLR and the constraints imposed by framing administrative and institutional structures. The overall goal of the project is to help coastal communities better understand factors that facilitate or hinder their intrinsic, local decision-making processes related to planning for adaptation to risk. The project carried out these tests in 2014 and 2015 in one coastal city in each partnering nation. The framework was designed by an interdisciplinary team that incorporated social and natural scientists from these three nations, and which included local government officials. To support the overall goal, this paper 1) discusses some aspects of adaptive capacity and participant survey research conducted through the project, 2) presents technical modelling results for adaptation options that may reduce the potential damages of SLR and storm surge in each location, and 3) identifies project design considerations for similar transnational adaptation projects.

  18. Net-zero Building Cluster Simulations and On-line Energy Forecasting for Adaptive and Real-Time Control and Decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xiwang

    Buildings consume about 41.1% of primary energy and 74% of the electricity in the U.S. Moreover, it is estimated by the National Energy Technology Laboratory that more than 1/4 of the 713 GW of U.S. electricity demand in 2010 could be dispatchable if only buildings could respond to that dispatch through advanced building energy control and operation strategies and smart grid infrastructure. In this study, it is envisioned that neighboring buildings will have the tendency to form a cluster, an open cyber-physical system to exploit the economic opportunities provided by a smart grid, distributed power generation, and storage devices. Through optimized demand management, these building clusters will then reduce overall primary energy consumption and peak time electricity consumption, and be more resilient to power disruptions. Therefore, this project seeks to develop a Net-zero building cluster simulation testbed and high fidelity energy forecasting models for adaptive and real-time control and decision making strategy development that can be used in a Net-zero building cluster. The following research activities are summarized in this thesis: 1) Development of a building cluster emulator for building cluster control and operation strategy assessment. 2) Development of a novel building energy forecasting methodology using active system identification and data fusion techniques. In this methodology, a systematic approach for building energy system characteristic evaluation, system excitation and model adaptation is included. The developed methodology is compared with other literature-reported building energy forecasting methods; 3) Development of the high fidelity on-line building cluster energy forecasting models, which includes energy forecasting models for buildings, PV panels, batteries and ice tank thermal storage systems 4) Small scale real building validation study to verify the performance of the developed building energy forecasting methodology. The outcomes of

  19. Bayesian integrated testing strategy (ITS) for skin sensitization potency assessment: a decision support system for quantitative weight of evidence and adaptive testing strategy.

    PubMed

    Jaworska, Joanna S; Natsch, Andreas; Ryan, Cindy; Strickland, Judy; Ashikaga, Takao; Miyazawa, Masaaki

    2015-12-01

    The presented Bayesian network Integrated Testing Strategy (ITS-3) for skin sensitization potency assessment is a decision support system for a risk assessor that provides quantitative weight of evidence, leading to a mechanistically interpretable potency hypothesis, and formulates adaptive testing strategy for a chemical. The system was constructed with an aim to improve precision and accuracy for predicting LLNA potency beyond ITS-2 (Jaworska et al., J Appl Toxicol 33(11):1353-1364, 2013) by improving representation of chemistry and biology. Among novel elements are corrections for bioavailability both in vivo and in vitro as well as consideration of the individual assays' applicability domains in the prediction process. In ITS-3 structure, three validated alternative assays, DPRA, KeratinoSens and h-CLAT, represent first three key events of the adverse outcome pathway for skin sensitization. The skin sensitization potency prediction is provided as a probability distribution over four potency classes. The probability distribution is converted to Bayes factors to: 1) remove prediction bias introduced by the training set potency distribution and 2) express uncertainty in a quantitative manner, allowing transparent and consistent criteria to accept a prediction. The novel ITS-3 database includes 207 chemicals with a full set of in vivo and in vitro data. The accuracy for predicting LLNA outcomes on the external test set (n = 60) was as follows: hazard (two classes)-100 %, GHS potency classification (three classes)-96 %, potency (four classes)-89 %. This work demonstrates that skin sensitization potency prediction based on data from three key events, and often less, is possible, reliable over broad chemical classes and ready for practical applications.

  20. A SCORING SYSTEM TO IMPROVE DECISION MAKING AND OUTCOMES IN THE ADAPTATION OF RECENTLY CAPTURED WHITE RHINOCEROSES (CERATOTHERIUM SIMUM) TO CAPTIVITY.

    PubMed

    Miller, Michele; Kruger, Milandie; Kruger, Marius; Olea-Popelka, Francisco; Buss, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Ninety-four subadult and adult white rhinoceroses (Ceratotherium simum) were captured between February and October, 2009-11, in Kruger National Park and placed in holding bomas prior to translocation to other locations within South Africa. A simple three-category system was developed based on appetite, fecal consistency/volume, and behavior to assess adaptation to bomas. Individual animal and group daily median scores were used to determine trends and when rhinoceroses had successfully adapted to the boma. Seventeen rhinoceroses did not adapt to boma confinement, and 16 were released (1 mortality). No differences in boma scores were observed between rhinoceroses that adapted and those that did not, until day 8, when the first significant differences were observed (adapted score=13 versus nonadapted score=10). The time to reach a boma score determined as successful adaptation (median 19 d) matched subjective observations, which was approximately 3 wk for most rhinoceroses. Unsuccessful adaptation was indicated by an individual boma score of less than 15, typically during the first 2 wk, or a declining trend in scores within the first 7-14 d. This scoring system can be used for most locations and could also be easily adapted to other areas in which rhinoceroses are held in captivity. This tool also provides important information for assessing welfare in newly captured rhinoceroses.

  1. Changes in Managerial Decision on Pond Management to Adapt to Climate Anomalies in the Coastal Area of Pare-Pare Gulf, District of Pinrang

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fattah, M. H.; Busaeri, S. R.; Kasnir, M.; Siswanto

    2017-08-01

    The climate anomaly was adapted through the adjustment of tiger shrimp stocking patterns and optimum use of locally endemic Phronima Suppa (PS) to suit the season. Thus, the batches period determined was adjusted to suit climate change dynamics, reducing the shrimp stocking density down to 10.000 - 15.000 per ha and applying PS so the shrimp became tolerant of any environmental stress and pathogen infection. The knowledge of adaptation to climate anomalies, a learning outcome of the field school, managed to increase the average production of tiger shrimp to 217 kg/ha with an average receipt of IDR 22.60 million/ha.

  2. Water Resource Adaptation Program

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Water Resource Adaptation Program (WRAP) contributes to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) efforts to provide water resource managers and decision makers with the tools needed to adapt water resources to demographic and economic development, and future clim...

  3. Water Resource Adaptation Program

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Water Resource Adaptation Program (WRAP) contributes to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) efforts to provide water resource managers and decision makers with the tools needed to adapt water resources to demographic and economic development, and future clim...

  4. Adaptive equalization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qureshi, S. U. H.

    1985-09-01

    Theoretical work which has been effective in improving data transmission by telephone and radio links using adaptive equalization (AE) techniques is reviewed. AE has been applied to reducing the temporal dispersion effects, such as intersymbol interference, caused by the channel accessed. Attention is given to the Nyquist telegraph transmission theory, least mean square error adaptive filtering and the theory and structure of linear receive and transmit filters for reducing error. Optimum nonlinear receiver structures are discussed in terms of optimality criteria as a function of error probability. A suboptimum receiver structure is explored in the form of a decision-feedback equalizer. Consideration is also given to quadrature amplitude modulation and transversal equalization for receivers.

  5. Assess and Adapt: Coordinated Ecoregional Forest Vulnerability Assessments Covering the Upper Midwest and Northeast in Support of Climate-informed Decision-making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swanston, C.; Janowiak, M.; Handler, S.; Butler, P.; Brandt, L.; Iverson, L.; Thompson, F.; Ontl, T.; Shannon, D.

    2016-12-01

    Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessments are rapidly becoming an integral component of forest management planning, in which there is increasing public expectation that even near-term activities explicitly incorporate information about anticipated climate impacts and risks. There is a clear desire among forest managers for targeted assessments that address critical questions about species and ecosystem vulnerabilities while delivering this information in an accessible format. We developed the Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment Approach (EVAA), which combines multiple quantitative models, expert elicitation from scientists and land managers, and a templated report structure oriented to natural resource managers. The report structure includes relevant information on the contemporary landscape, past climate, future climate projections, impact model results, and a transparent vulnerability assessment of species and ecosystems. We have used EVAA in seven ecoregional assessments covering 246 million acres of forestland across the upper Midwest and Northeast (www.forestadaptation.org; five published, two in review). We convened a panel of local forest ecology and management experts in each assessment area to examine projected climate effects on system drivers, stressors, and dominant species, as well as the current adaptive capacity of the major ecoregional forest ecosystems. The panels provided a qualitative assessment of the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change over the next century. Over 130 authors from dozens of organizations collaborated on these peer-reviewed assessment publications, which are delivered to thousands of stakeholders through live and recorded webinars, online briefs, and in-person trainings and seminars. The assessments are designed to be used with the Adaptation Workbook (www.adaptationworkbook.org), a planning tool that works at multiple scales and has generated more than 200 real-world forest adaptation demonstration projects.

  6. Decision making.

    PubMed

    Chambers, David W

    2011-01-01

    A decision is a commitment of resources under conditions of risk in expectation of the best future outcome. The smart decision is always the strategy with the best overall expected value-the best combination of facts and values. Some of the special circumstances involved in decision making are discussed, including decisions where there are multiple goals, those where more than one person is involved in making the decision, using trigger points, framing decisions correctly, commitments to lost causes, and expert decision makers. A complex example of deciding about removal of asymptomatic third molars, with and without an EBD search, is discussed.

  7. An adaptive incremental approach to constructing ensemble classifiers: Application in an information-theoretic computer-aided decision system for detection of masses in mammograms

    SciTech Connect

    Mazurowski, Maciej A.; Zurada, Jacek M.; Tourassi, Georgia D.

    2009-07-15

    Ensemble classifiers have been shown efficient in multiple applications. In this article, the authors explore the effectiveness of ensemble classifiers in a case-based computer-aided diagnosis system for detection of masses in mammograms. They evaluate two general ways of constructing subclassifiers by resampling of the available development dataset: Random division and random selection. Furthermore, they discuss the problem of selecting the ensemble size and propose two adaptive incremental techniques that automatically select the size for the problem at hand. All the techniques are evaluated with respect to a previously proposed information-theoretic CAD system (IT-CAD). The experimental results show that the examined ensemble techniques provide a statistically significant improvement (AUC=0.905{+-}0.024) in performance as compared to the original IT-CAD system (AUC=0.865{+-}0.029). Some of the techniques allow for a notable reduction in the total number of examples stored in the case base (to 1.3% of the original size), which, in turn, results in lower storage requirements and a shorter response time of the system. Among the methods examined in this article, the two proposed adaptive techniques are by far the most effective for this purpose. Furthermore, the authors provide some discussion and guidance for choosing the ensemble parameters.

  8. A Closer Look at the Effects of Repeated Cocaine Exposure on Adaptive Decision-Making under Conditions That Promote Goal-Directed Control

    PubMed Central

    Halbout, Briac; Liu, Angela T.; Ostlund, Sean B.

    2016-01-01

    It has been proposed that compulsive drug seeking reflects an underlying dysregulation in adaptive behavior that favors habitual (automatic and inflexible) over goal-directed (deliberative and highly flexible) action selection. Rodent studies have established that repeated exposure to cocaine or amphetamine facilitates the development of habits, producing behavior that becomes unusually insensitive to a reduction in the value of its outcome. The current study more directly investigated the effects of cocaine pre-exposure on goal-directed learning and action selection using an approach that discourages habitual performance. After undergoing a 15-day series of cocaine (15 or 30 mg/kg, i.p.) or saline injections and a drug withdrawal period, rats were trained to perform two different lever-press actions for distinct reward options. During a subsequent outcome devaluation test, both cocaine- and saline-treated rats showed a robust bias in their choice between the two actions, preferring whichever action had been trained with the reward that retained its value. Thus, it appears that the tendency for repeated cocaine exposure to promote habit formation does not extend to a more complex behavioral scenario that encourages goal-directed control. To further explore this issue, we assessed how prior cocaine treatment would affect the rats’ ability to learn about a selective reduction in the predictive relationship between one of the two actions and its outcome, which is another fundamental feature of goal-directed behavior. Interestingly, we found that cocaine-treated rats showed enhanced, rather than diminished, sensitivity to this action–outcome contingency degradation manipulation. Given their mutual dependence on striatal dopamine signaling, we suggest that cocaine’s effects on habit formation and contingency learning may stem from a common adaptation in this neurochemical system. PMID:27047400

  9. Decision technology.

    PubMed

    Edwards, W; Fasolo, B

    2001-01-01

    This review is about decision technology-the rules and tools that help us make wiser decisions. First, we review the three rules that are at the heart of most traditional decision technology-multi-attribute utility, Bayes' theorem, and subjective expected utility maximization. Since the inception of decision research, these rules have prescribed how we should infer values and probabilities and how we should combine them to make better decisions. We suggest how to make best use of all three rules in a comprehensive 19-step model. The remainder of the review explores recently developed tools of decision technology. It examines the characteristics and problems of decision-facilitating sites on the World Wide Web. Such sites now provide anyone who can use a personal computer with access to very sophisticated decision-aiding tools structured mainly to facilitate consumer decision making. It seems likely that the Web will be the mode by means of which decision tools will be distributed to lay users. But methods for doing such apparently simple things as winnowing 3000 options down to a more reasonable number, like 10, contain traps for unwary decision technologists. The review briefly examines Bayes nets and influence diagrams-judgment and decision-making tools that are available as computer programs. It very briefly summarizes the state of the art of eliciting probabilities from experts. It concludes that decision tools will be as important in the 21st century as spreadsheets were in the 20th.

  10. [Validation, adaptation and translation of the MacCAT-T into Spanish: a tool to assess the ability to make health decisions].

    PubMed

    Hernando Robles, P; Lechuga Pérez, X; Solé Llop, P; Diestre, G; Mariné Torrent, A; Rodríguez Jornet, A; Marquina Parra, D; Colomer Mirabell, O

    2012-01-01

    Capacity assessment is an essential element of the informed consent process and is the duty of the physician. The MacCAT-T instrument explores four skills needed to consent a treatment. There is no Spanish version, and the main objective of this work is to validate, adapt and translate the MacCAT-T into Spanish. The MacCAT-T was translated into Spanish and then back-translated into English. It was validated as regards its appearance and content (by 15 experts), construct (inter-rater reliability and internal consistency) and criteria (the validity of an instrument by comparing it to some external criterion, in this case the Mini Examen Cognoscitivo de Lobo). Ninety medical and surgical outpatients over 18 years were included with no deficits of expression and/or severe disorders of consciousness that did not allow them to be interviewed. They have been optimal considering different types of validity. The average application time was between 9 and 13minutes. Data are consistent with those obtained in other applications of MacCAT-T in the English language and facilitate the provision of a Spanish tool for assessing capacity. Copyright © 2011 SECA. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  11. Enabling Philippine Farmers to Adapt to Climate Variability Using Seasonal Climate and Weather Forecast with a Crop Simulation Model in an SMS-based Farmer Decision Support System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebardaloza, J. B. R.; Trogo, R.; Sabido, D. J.; Tongson, E.; Bagtasa, G.; Balderama, O. F.

    2015-12-01

    Corn farms in the Philippines are rainfed farms, hence, it is of utmost importance to choose the start of planting date so that the critical growth stages that are in need of water will fall on dates when there is rain. Most farmers in the Philippines use superstitions and traditions as basis for farming decisions such as when to start planting [1]. Before climate change, superstitions like planting after a feast day of a saint has worked for them but with the recent progression of climate change, farmers now recognize that there is a need for technological intervention [1]. The application discussed in this paper presents a solution that makes use of meteorological station sensors, localized seasonal climate forecast, localized weather forecast and a crop simulation model to provide recommendations to farmers based on the crop cultivar, soil type and fertilizer type used by farmers. It is critical that the recommendations given to farmers are not generic as each farmer would have different needs based on their cultivar, soil, fertilizer, planting schedule and even location [2]. This application allows the farmer to inquire about whether it will rain in the next seven days, the best date to start planting based on the potential yield upon harvest, when to apply fertilizer and by how much, when to water and by how much. Short messaging service (SMS) is the medium chosen for this application because while mobile penetration in the Philippines is as high as 101%, the smart phone penetration is only at 15% [3]. SMS has been selected as it has been identified as the most effective way of reaching farmers with timely agricultural information and knowledge [4,5]. The recommendations while derived from making use of Automated Weather Station (AWS) sensor data, Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) models and DSSAT 4.5 [9], are translated into the local language of the farmers and in a format that is easily understood as recommended in [6,7,8]. A pilot study has been started

  12. Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation Plans in California: A Guide and Online Visualization Tool for Planners to Incorporate Risks of Climate Change Impacts in Policy and Decision-Making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, W.; Tucker, K.; DeFlorio, J.

    2012-12-01

    for the strategy framework. The strategy framework for MPOs and RTPAs is used to: 1) Assess the relative risks to their transportation system infrastructure and services of different climate stressors (sea level rise, temperature changes, snow melt, precipita¬tion changes, flooding, extreme weather events); 2) Conduct an asset inventory and vulnerability assessment of existing infrastructure; 3) Prioritize segments and facilities for adaptation action; 4) Identify appropriate and cost-effective adaptation strategies; and 5) Incorporate climate impact considerations into future long-range transportation planning and investment decisions. This framework complements the broader planning and investment processes that MPOs and RTPAs already manage. It recognizes the varying capacities and resources among MPOs and RTPAs and provide methods that can be used by organizations seeking to conduct in-depth analysis or a more sketch-level assessment.

  13. TWO PAPERS ON ADAPTIVE INVENTORY CONTROL.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    INVENTORY CONTROL , ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS), (*DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING, INVENTORY CONTROL ), OPTIMIZATION, COSTS, RANDOM VARIABLES, SAMPLING, MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION, INVENTORY CONTROL , STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, DECISION THEORY

  14. A holistic strategy for adaptive land management

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management. Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adapta...

  15. Composite collective decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Czaczkes, Tomer J.; Czaczkes, Benjamin; Iglhaut, Carolin; Heinze, Jürgen

    2015-01-01

    Individual animals are adept at making decisions and have cognitive abilities, such as memory, which allow them to hone their decisions. Social animals can also share information. This allows social animals to make adaptive group-level decisions. Both individual and collective decision-making systems also have drawbacks and limitations, and while both are well studied, the interaction between them is still poorly understood. Here, we study how individual and collective decision-making interact during ant foraging. We first gathered empirical data on memory-based foraging persistence in the ant Lasius niger. We used these data to create an agent-based model where ants may use social information (trail pheromones), private information (memories) or both to make foraging decisions. The combined use of social and private information by individuals results in greater efficiency at the group level than when either information source was used alone. The modelled ants couple consensus decision-making, allowing them to quickly exploit high-quality food sources, and combined decision-making, allowing different individuals to specialize in exploiting different resource patches. Such a composite collective decision-making system reaps the benefits of both its constituent parts. Exploiting such insights into composite collective decision-making may lead to improved decision-making algorithms. PMID:26019155

  16. WE-EF-BRD-03: I Want It Now!: Advances in MRI Acquisition, Reconstruction and the Use of Priors to Enable Fast Anatomic and Physiologic Imaging to Inform Guidance and Adaptation Decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Hu, Y.

    2015-06-15

    MRI-guided treatment is a growing area of medicine, particularly in radiotherapy and surgery. The exquisite soft tissue anatomic contrast offered by MRI, along with functional imaging, makes the use of MRI during therapeutic procedures very attractive. Challenging the utility of MRI in the therapy room are many issues including the physics of MRI and the impact on the environment and therapeutic instruments, the impact of the room and instruments on the MRI; safety, space, design and cost. In this session, the applications and challenges of MRI-guided treatment will be described. The session format is: Past, present and future: MRI-guided radiotherapy from 2005 to 2025: Jan Lagendijk Battling Maxwell’s equations: Physics challenges and solutions for hybrid MRI systems: Paul Keall I want it now!: Advances in MRI acquisition, reconstruction and the use of priors to enable fast anatomic and physiologic imaging to inform guidance and adaptation decisions: Yanle Hu MR in the OR: The growth and applications of MRI for interventional radiology and surgery: Rebecca Fahrig Learning Objectives: To understand the history and trajectory of MRI-guided radiotherapy To understand the challenges of integrating MR imaging systems with linear accelerators To understand the latest in fast MRI methods to enable the visualisation of anatomy and physiology on radiotherapy treatment timescales To understand the growing role and challenges of MRI for image-guided surgical procedures My disclosures are publicly available and updated at: http://sydney.edu.au/medicine/radiation-physics/about-us/disclosures.php.

  17. Measuring Shared Decision Making in Psychiatric Care

    PubMed Central

    Salyers, Michelle P.; Matthias, Marianne S.; Fukui, Sadaaki; Holter, Mark C.; Collins, Linda; Rose, Nichole; Thompson, John; Coffman, Melinda; Torrey, William C.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Shared decision making is widely recognized to facilitate effective health care; tools are needed to measure the level of shared decision making in psychiatric practice. Methods A coding scheme assessing shared decision making in medical settings (1) was adapted, including creation of a manual. Trained raters analyzed 170 audio recordings of psychiatric medication check-up visits. Results Inter-rater reliability among three raters for a subset of 20 recordings ranged from 67% to 100% agreement for the presence of each of nine elements of shared decision making and 100% for the overall agreement between provider and consumer. Just over half of the decisions met minimum criteria for shared decision making. Shared decision making was not related to length of visit after controlling for complexity of decision. Conclusions The shared decision making rating scale appears to reliably assess shared decision making in psychiatric practice and could be helpful for future research, training, and implementation efforts. PMID:22854725

  18. Career Adaptability in Childhood

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hartung, Paul J.; Porfeli, Erik J.; Vondracek, Fred W.

    2008-01-01

    Childhood marks the dawn of vocational development, involving developmental tasks, transitions, and change. Children must acquire the rudiments of career adaptability to envision a future, make educational and vocational decisions, explore self and occupations, and problem solve. The authors situate child vocational development within human life…

  19. Career Adaptability in Childhood

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hartung, Paul J.; Porfeli, Erik J.; Vondracek, Fred W.

    2008-01-01

    Childhood marks the dawn of vocational development, involving developmental tasks, transitions, and change. Children must acquire the rudiments of career adaptability to envision a future, make educational and vocational decisions, explore self and occupations, and problem solve. The authors situate child vocational development within human life…

  20. To Adapt or Not to Adapt: Navigating an Implementation Conundrum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leko, Melinda M.

    2015-01-01

    Maximizing the effectiveness of evidence-based practices (EBPs) requires an optimal balance of implementation fidelity and adaptation so EBPs fit local contexts and meet the individual learning needs of students with disabilities. The framework for classifying adaptations presented in this article can help educators make decisions about whether…

  1. To Adapt or Not to Adapt: Navigating an Implementation Conundrum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leko, Melinda M.

    2015-01-01

    Maximizing the effectiveness of evidence-based practices (EBPs) requires an optimal balance of implementation fidelity and adaptation so EBPs fit local contexts and meet the individual learning needs of students with disabilities. The framework for classifying adaptations presented in this article can help educators make decisions about whether…

  2. Proactive and Adaptive Decision Support Study (PDS)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-10-31

    Arlington, VA 22203-1995 703-696-2875 jeffrey.g.morrison@navy.mil Report Prepared By: Thomas G. Allen Boston Fusion Corp. 1 Van de Graaff...NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Boston Fusion Corp.,,1 Van de Graaff Drive, Suite 107,,Burlington,,MA,01803 8...Summary During October, the principal activities for Boston Fusion were related to planning for the PADS Workshop. Summaries of these activities

  3. Proactive and Adaptive Decision Support Study (PDS)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-11-30

    St. Arlington, VA 22203-1995 703-696-2875 jeffrey.g.morrison@navy.mil Report Prepared By: Thomas G. Allen Boston Fusion Corp. 1 Van de Graaff...UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Boston Fusion Corp.,,1 Van de Graaff Drive, Suite 107,,Burlington,,MA,01803 8...Summary During November, the principal activities for Boston Fusion were related to development of the technical section of the InfoCog final

  4. Proactive and Adaptive Decision Support Study (PDS)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-30

    Randolph St. Arlington, VA 22203-1995 703-696-2875 jeffrey.g.morrison@navy.mil Report Prepared By: Thomas G. Allen Boston Fusion Corp. 1 Van de...UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Boston Fusion Corp.,,1 Van de Graaff Drive, Suite 107,,Burlington,,MA,01803 8...18 Summary During September, the principal activities for Boston Fusion were related to (1) initiating the development of the technical section of

  5. Adaptive Strategy Selection in Decision Making.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-07-31

    s__uc _N__SSEFORE COMLZTM[G FORM . REPORT NUMBER ’ 2. GOVT ACCESSION NO. I RECIP ENT* S CATALOG NUMUER 86-1 V4L_ 𔃾 6 4. TITLE (and Subltl)e. S . TYPE OF...Controlling Office) IS. SECURITY CLASS. (of thle eporl) Unclassified Ia. DECLASSIFICATION/DOWNGRADING S . : SCHEDULE * -F.. I. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (ofhis...EDITION OF i NOV 65 IS OBSOLETE S /N 0102- LF- 014. 6601 SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (Mhen bets fntard) efficient strategies for a given

  6. Adaptive Criterion Setting in Perceptual Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stuttgen, Maik C.; Yildiz, Ali; Gunturkun, Onur

    2011-01-01

    Pigeons responded in a perceptual categorization task with six different stimuli (shades of gray), three of which were to be classified as "light" or "dark", respectively. Reinforcement probability for correct responses was varied from 0.2 to 0.6 across blocks of sessions and was unequal for correct light and dark responses. Introduction of a new…

  7. Population consequences of reproductive decisions.

    PubMed

    Smith, C; Reynolds, J D; Sutherland, W J

    2000-07-07

    Behaviour can be a key component of animal population ecology yet the population consequences of behavioural decisions are poorly understood. We conducted a behavioural and demographic study of the bitterling Rhodeus sericeus, a freshwater fish that spawns in live unionid mussels. We used a population model incorporating game theory decisions and measurements of demographic parameters in order to provide predictions of population size among 13 populations of this fish. Our model predicted that the observed behavioural spawning decisions, while maximizing individual fitness, cause a significant 6% reduction in population size compared with randomly distributed spawnings. We discuss our findings in the context of the population consequences of adaptive behaviour.

  8. Organizational Decisions.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-03-01

    actors." To appreciate what problems will draw attention and which will be ignored becomes a matter of studying how attention is focused in a situation of...decision-making parallel those of the individual decision-maker. Thus, organizations appear to use strategies in complex problem -solving situations that are...and goal on one or more attributes, (2) a-description of the strategy associated with a previously encountered problem with a similar stimulus

  9. Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.

    Treesearch

    J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...

  10. Naval Aviation Maintenance Decision Support System

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-03-01

    Processing FCF Functional Check Flight 99 FMC Fully Mission Capable JCN Job Control Number MCC Maintenance Contorl Chief MESM Mission Essential Support...DESIGN, EVALUATION AND EVOLUTION........................6 A. DECISION MAKING THEORY...............6 1. The Decision Making Process ...........7 2...87 2. Prototyping and Adaptive Design ...... 88 V. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ... .......... 91 A. CONCLUSIONS

  11. Forestry Decisions

    Treesearch

    Stephen G. Boyce

    1985-01-01

    Viewing the forest as a system that self-organizes in response to a schedule of harvest and culture provides a new basis for making forestry decisions. Computer simulations of states of forest organization through time provide displays of tne production of forest benefits ranging from timber and water to wildlife and recreation. From these displays, the manager chooses...

  12. Mathematical Epistemology from a Peircean Semiotic Point of View

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Otte, Michael

    2006-01-01

    Learning is better than knowing, generalization is more illuminating than abstract generality or universality because we perceive and thus become conscious of change or development only. Signs and representations establish the dialectic of fixation on the one hand and transformation on the other, which is so essential to learning and cognition.…

  13. Evolution, Learning, and Semiotics from a Peircean Point of View

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Otte, Michael Friedrich

    2011-01-01

    One of the most salient arguments in favor of a semiotic approach, put forward on various occasions among others by Luis Radford, claims that semiotics is most appropriate to treat the interaction between socio-cultural and objective aspects of knowledge problems. But if we want to take such claims seriously, we have to undertake revisions of our…

  14. Learning and Teaching Critical Thinking: From a Peircean Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wells, Kelley

    2009-01-01

    The article will argue that Charles Sanders Peirce's concepts of the "Dynamics of Belief and Doubt", the "Fixation of Belief" as well as "habits of belief" taken together comprise a theory of learning. The "dynamics of belief and doubt" are Peirce's explanation for the process of changing from one belief to another. Teaching, then, would be an…

  15. Evolution, Learning, and Semiotics from a Peircean Point of View

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Otte, Michael Friedrich

    2011-01-01

    One of the most salient arguments in favor of a semiotic approach, put forward on various occasions among others by Luis Radford, claims that semiotics is most appropriate to treat the interaction between socio-cultural and objective aspects of knowledge problems. But if we want to take such claims seriously, we have to undertake revisions of our…

  16. Single-photon decision maker

    PubMed Central

    Naruse, Makoto; Berthel, Martin; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Aono, Masashi; Hori, Hirokazu; Kim, Song-Ju

    2015-01-01

    Decision making is critical in our daily lives and for society in general and is finding evermore practical applications in information and communication technologies. Herein, we demonstrate experimentally that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. Using a nitrogen-vacancy in a nanodiamond as a single-photon source, we demonstrate the decision-making capability by solving the multi-armed bandit problem. This capability is directly and immediately associated with single-photon detection in the proposed architecture, leading to adequate and adaptive autonomous decision making. This study makes it possible to create systems that benefit from the quantum nature of light to perform practical and vital intelligent functions. PMID:26278007

  17. Single-photon decision maker

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naruse, Makoto; Berthel, Martin; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Aono, Masashi; Hori, Hirokazu; Kim, Song-Ju

    2015-08-01

    Decision making is critical in our daily lives and for society in general and is finding evermore practical applications in information and communication technologies. Herein, we demonstrate experimentally that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. Using a nitrogen-vacancy in a nanodiamond as a single-photon source, we demonstrate the decision-making capability by solving the multi-armed bandit problem. This capability is directly and immediately associated with single-photon detection in the proposed architecture, leading to adequate and adaptive autonomous decision making. This study makes it possible to create systems that benefit from the quantum nature of light to perform practical and vital intelligent functions.

  18. Single-photon decision maker.

    PubMed

    Naruse, Makoto; Berthel, Martin; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Aono, Masashi; Hori, Hirokazu; Kim, Song-Ju

    2015-08-17

    Decision making is critical in our daily lives and for society in general and is finding evermore practical applications in information and communication technologies. Herein, we demonstrate experimentally that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. Using a nitrogen-vacancy in a nanodiamond as a single-photon source, we demonstrate the decision-making capability by solving the multi-armed bandit problem. This capability is directly and immediately associated with single-photon detection in the proposed architecture, leading to adequate and adaptive autonomous decision making. This study makes it possible to create systems that benefit from the quantum nature of light to perform practical and vital intelligent functions.

  19. Visual Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Webster, Michael A.

    2015-01-01

    Sensory systems continuously mold themselves to the widely varying contexts in which they must operate. Studies of these adaptations have played a long and central role in vision science. In part this is because the specific adaptations remain a powerful tool for dissecting vision, by exposing the mechanisms that are adapting. That is, “if it adapts, it's there.” Many insights about vision have come from using adaptation in this way, as a method. A second important trend has been the realization that the processes of adaptation are themselves essential to how vision works, and thus are likely to operate at all levels. That is, “if it's there, it adapts.” This has focused interest on the mechanisms of adaptation as the target rather than the probe. Together both approaches have led to an emerging insight of adaptation as a fundamental and ubiquitous coding strategy impacting all aspects of how we see. PMID:26858985

  20. Adaptive Biomedical Innovation.

    PubMed

    Honig, P K; Hirsch, G

    2016-12-01

    Adaptive Biomedical Innovation (ABI) is a multistakeholder approach to product and process innovation aimed at accelerating the delivery of clinical value to patients and society. ABI offers the opportunity to transcend the fragmentation and linearity of decision-making in our current model and create a common collaborative framework that optimizes the benefit and access of new medicines for patients as well as creating a more sustainable innovation ecosystem.

  1. Decision Making in Recurrent Neuronal Circuits

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xiao-Jing

    2009-01-01

    Decision making has recently emerged as a central theme in neurophysiological studies of cognition, and experimental and computational work has led to the proposal of a cortical circuit mechanism of elemental decision computations. This mechanism depends on slow recurrent synaptic excitation balanced by fast feedback inhibition, which not only instantiates attractor states for forming categorical choices but also long transients for gradually accumulating evidence in favor of or against alternative options. Such a circuit endowed with reward-dependent synaptic plasticity is able to produce adaptive choice behavior. While decision threshold is a core concept for reaction time tasks, it can be dissociated from a general decision rule. Moreover, perceptual decisions and value-based economic choices are described within a unified framework in which probabilistic choices result from irregular neuronal activity as well as iterative interactions of a decision maker with an uncertain environment or other unpredictable decision makers in a social group. PMID:18957215

  2. Adaptive Management

    EPA Science Inventory

    Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management where knowledge is incomplete, and when, despite inherent uncertainty, managers and policymakers must act. Unlike a traditional trial and error approach, adaptive managem...

  3. Adaptive Management

    EPA Science Inventory

    Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management where knowledge is incomplete, and when, despite inherent uncertainty, managers and policymakers must act. Unlike a traditional trial and error approach, adaptive managem...

  4. Situating adaptation: How governance challenges and perceptions of uncertainty influence adaptation in the Rocky Mountains

    Treesearch

    Carina Wyborn; Laurie Yung; Daniel Murphy; Daniel R. Williams

    2015-01-01

    Adaptation is situated within multiple, interacting social, political, and economic forces. Adaptation pathways envision adaptation as a continual pathway of change and response embedded within this broader sociopolitical context. Pathways emphasize that current decisions are both informed by past actions and shape the landscape of future options. This research...

  5. What Learning Environments Help Improve Decision-Making?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Connor, Donna; Larkin, Paul; Williams, A. Mark

    2017-01-01

    Background: Decision-making is a key component of performance in sport. However, there has been minimal investigation of how coaches may adapt practice sessions to specifically develop decision-making. Purpose: The aim in this exploratory study was to investigate the pedagogical approaches coaches use to develop decision-making in soccer. Method:…

  6. Making Sustainable Decisions Using the KONVERGENCE Framework

    SciTech Connect

    Piet, Steven James; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Dakins, Maxine Ellen

    2003-02-01

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. “Cleanup” includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done - some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches, including: • New ways (mental model) to analyze and visualize the problem, • Awareness of the option to shift strategy or reframe from a single decision to an adaptable network of decisions, and • Improved tactical processes that account for several challenges. These include the following: • Stakeholder values are a more fundamental basis for decision making and keeping than “meeting regulations.” • Late-entry players and future generations will question decisions. • People may resist making “irreversible” decisions. • People need “compelling reasons” to take action in the face of uncertainties. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period—from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept “as is” or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: • Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? • Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? • Resources: what is available to implement

  7. Ignorance- versus Evidence-Based Decision Making: A Decision Time Analysis of the Recognition Heuristic

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilbig, Benjamin E.; Pohl, Rudiger F.

    2009-01-01

    According to part of the adaptive toolbox notion of decision making known as the recognition heuristic (RH), the decision process in comparative judgments--and its duration--is determined by whether recognition discriminates between objects. By contrast, some recently proposed alternative models predict that choices largely depend on the amount of…

  8. Ignorance- versus Evidence-Based Decision Making: A Decision Time Analysis of the Recognition Heuristic

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilbig, Benjamin E.; Pohl, Rudiger F.

    2009-01-01

    According to part of the adaptive toolbox notion of decision making known as the recognition heuristic (RH), the decision process in comparative judgments--and its duration--is determined by whether recognition discriminates between objects. By contrast, some recently proposed alternative models predict that choices largely depend on the amount of…

  9. Making Sustainable Decisions Using The KONVERGENCE Framework

    SciTech Connect

    Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.

    2003-02-25

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases.

  10. Contributions of Minimax Theory to Instructional Decision Making in Intelligent Tutoring Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vos, H. J.

    1999-01-01

    Formulates decision rules for adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to learning needs in intelligent-tutoring systems. Highlights include minimax decision theory (a minimum information approach), a binomial model, and a comparison of the Bayesian decision component in the Minnesota Adaptive Instructional System and the minimax strategy.…

  11. Adaptive SPECT

    PubMed Central

    Barrett, Harrison H.; Furenlid, Lars R.; Freed, Melanie; Hesterman, Jacob Y.; Kupinski, Matthew A.; Clarkson, Eric; Whitaker, Meredith K.

    2008-01-01

    Adaptive imaging systems alter their data-acquisition configuration or protocol in response to the image information received. An adaptive pinhole single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) system might acquire an initial scout image to obtain preliminary information about the radiotracer distribution and then adjust the configuration or sizes of the pinholes, the magnifications, or the projection angles in order to improve performance. This paper briefly describes two small-animal SPECT systems that allow this flexibility and then presents a framework for evaluating adaptive systems in general, and adaptive SPECT systems in particular. The evaluation is in terms of the performance of linear observers on detection or estimation tasks. Expressions are derived for the ideal linear (Hotelling) observer and the ideal linear (Wiener) estimator with adaptive imaging. Detailed expressions for the performance figures of merit are given, and possible adaptation rules are discussed. PMID:18541485

  12. Classifying climate change adaptation frameworks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armstrong, Jennifer

    2014-05-01

    Complex socio-ecological demographics are factors that must be considered when addressing adaptation to the potential effects of climate change. As such, a suite of deployable climate change adaptation frameworks is necessary. Multiple frameworks that are required to communicate the risks of climate change and facilitate adaptation. Three principal adaptation frameworks have emerged from the literature; Scenario - Led (SL), Vulnerability - Led (VL) and Decision - Centric (DC). This study aims to identify to what extent these adaptation frameworks; either, planned or deployed are used in a neighbourhood vulnerable to climate change. This work presents a criterion that may be used as a tool for identifying the hallmarks of adaptation frameworks and thus enabling categorisation of projects. The study focussed on the coastal zone surrounding the Sizewell nuclear power plant in Suffolk in the UK. An online survey was conducted identifying climate change adaptation projects operating in the study area. This inventory was analysed to identify the hallmarks of each adaptation project; Levels of dependency on climate model information, Metrics/units of analysis utilised, Level of demographic knowledge, Level of stakeholder engagement, Adaptation implementation strategies and Scale of adaptation implementation. The study found that climate change adaptation projects could be categorised, based on the hallmarks identified, in accordance with the published literature. As such, the criterion may be used to establish the matrix of adaptation frameworks present in a given area. A comprehensive summary of the nature of adaptation frameworks in operation in a locality provides a platform for further comparative analysis. Such analysis, enabled by the criterion, may aid the selection of appropriate frameworks enhancing the efficacy of climate change adaptation.

  13. Nonstationary decision model for flood risk decision scaling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spence, Caitlin M.; Brown, Casey M.

    2016-11-01

    Hydroclimatic stationarity is increasingly questioned as a default assumption in flood risk management (FRM), but successor methods are not yet established. Some potential successors depend on estimates of future flood quantiles, but methods for estimating future design storms are subject to high levels of uncertainty. Here we apply a Nonstationary Decision Model (NDM) to flood risk planning within the decision scaling framework. The NDM combines a nonstationary probability distribution of annual peak flow with optimal selection of flood management alternatives using robustness measures. The NDM incorporates structural and nonstructural FRM interventions and valuation of flows supporting ecosystem services to calculate expected cost of a given FRM strategy. A search for the minimum-cost strategy under incrementally varied representative scenarios extending across the plausible range of flood trend and value of the natural flow regime discovers candidate FRM strategies that are evaluated and compared through a decision scaling analysis (DSA). The DSA selects a management strategy that is optimal or close to optimal across the broadest range of scenarios or across the set of scenarios deemed most likely to occur according to estimates of future flood hazard. We illustrate the decision framework using a stylized example flood management decision based on the Iowa City flood management system, which has experienced recent unprecedented high flow episodes. The DSA indicates a preference for combining infrastructural and nonstructural adaptation measures to manage flood risk and makes clear that options-based approaches cannot be assumed to be "no" or "low regret."

  14. Hydropower, Adaptive Management, and Biodiversity

    PubMed

    WIERINGA; MORTON

    1996-11-01

    / Adaptive management is a policy framework within which an iterative process of decision making is followed based on the observed responses to and effectiveness of previous decisions. The use of adaptive management allows science-based research and monitoring of natural resource and ecological community responses, in conjunction with societal values and goals, to guide decisions concerning man's activities. The adaptive management process has been proposed for application to hydropower operations at Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River, a situation that requires complex balancing of natural resources requirements and competing human uses. This example is representative of the general increase in public interest in the operation of hydropower facilities and possible effects on downstream natural resources and of the growing conflicts between uses and users of river-based resources. This paper describes the adaptive management process, using the Glen Canyon Dam example, and discusses ways to make the process work effectively in managing downstream natural resources and biodiversity. KEY WORDS: Adaptive management; Biodiversity; Hydropower; Glen Canyon Dam; Ecology

  15. Climate adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kinzig, Ann P.

    2015-03-01

    This paper is intended as a brief introduction to climate adaptation in a conference devoted otherwise to the physics of sustainable energy. Whereas mitigation involves measures to reduce the probability of a potential event, such as climate change, adaptation refers to actions that lessen the impact of climate change. Mitigation and adaptation differ in other ways as well. Adaptation does not necessarily have to be implemented immediately to be effective; it only needs to be in place before the threat arrives. Also, adaptation does not necessarily require global, coordinated action; many effective adaptation actions can be local. Some urban communities, because of land-use change and the urban heat-island effect, currently face changes similar to some expected under climate change, such as changes in water availability, heat-related morbidity, or changes in disease patterns. Concern over those impacts might motivate the implementation of measures that would also help in climate adaptation, despite skepticism among some policy makers about anthropogenic global warming. Studies of ancient civilizations in the southwestern US lends some insight into factors that may or may not be important to successful adaptation.

  16. Adaptation improves face trustworthiness discrimination.

    PubMed

    Keefe, B D; Dzhelyova, M; Perrett, D I; Barraclough, N E

    2013-01-01

    Adaptation to facial characteristics, such as gender and viewpoint, has been shown to both bias our perception of faces and improve facial discrimination. In this study, we examined whether adapting to two levels of face trustworthiness improved sensitivity around the adapted level. Facial trustworthiness was manipulated by morphing between trustworthy and untrustworthy prototypes, each generated by morphing eight trustworthy and eight untrustworthy faces, respectively. In the first experiment, just-noticeable differences (JNDs) were calculated for an untrustworthy face after participants adapted to an untrustworthy face, a trustworthy face, or did not adapt. In the second experiment, the three conditions were identical, except that JNDs were calculated for a trustworthy face. In the third experiment we examined whether adapting to an untrustworthy male face improved discrimination to an untrustworthy female face. In all experiments, participants completed a two-interval forced-choice (2-IFC) adaptive staircase procedure, in which they judged which face was more untrustworthy. JNDs were derived from a psychometric function fitted to the data. Adaptation improved sensitivity to faces conveying the same level of trustworthiness when compared to no adaptation. When adapting to and discriminating around a different level of face trustworthiness there was no improvement in sensitivity and JNDs were equivalent to those in the no adaptation condition. The improvement in sensitivity was found to occur even when adapting to a face with different gender and identity. These results suggest that adaptation to facial trustworthiness can selectively enhance mechanisms underlying the coding of facial trustworthiness to improve perceptual sensitivity. These findings have implications for the role of our visual experience in the decisions we make about the trustworthiness of other individuals.

  17. Adaptation improves face trustworthiness discrimination

    PubMed Central

    Keefe, B. D.; Dzhelyova, M.; Perrett, D. I.; Barraclough, N. E.

    2013-01-01

    Adaptation to facial characteristics, such as gender and viewpoint, has been shown to both bias our perception of faces and improve facial discrimination. In this study, we examined whether adapting to two levels of face trustworthiness improved sensitivity around the adapted level. Facial trustworthiness was manipulated by morphing between trustworthy and untrustworthy prototypes, each generated by morphing eight trustworthy and eight untrustworthy faces, respectively. In the first experiment, just-noticeable differences (JNDs) were calculated for an untrustworthy face after participants adapted to an untrustworthy face, a trustworthy face, or did not adapt. In the second experiment, the three conditions were identical, except that JNDs were calculated for a trustworthy face. In the third experiment we examined whether adapting to an untrustworthy male face improved discrimination to an untrustworthy female face. In all experiments, participants completed a two-interval forced-choice (2-IFC) adaptive staircase procedure, in which they judged which face was more untrustworthy. JNDs were derived from a psychometric function fitted to the data. Adaptation improved sensitivity to faces conveying the same level of trustworthiness when compared to no adaptation. When adapting to and discriminating around a different level of face trustworthiness there was no improvement in sensitivity and JNDs were equivalent to those in the no adaptation condition. The improvement in sensitivity was found to occur even when adapting to a face with different gender and identity. These results suggest that adaptation to facial trustworthiness can selectively enhance mechanisms underlying the coding of facial trustworthiness to improve perceptual sensitivity. These findings have implications for the role of our visual experience in the decisions we make about the trustworthiness of other individuals. PMID:23801979

  18. Adaptive management of natural resources-framework and issues

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, B.K.

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive management, an approach for simultaneously managing and learning about natural resources, has been around for several decades. Interest in adaptive decision making has grown steadily over that time, and by now many in natural resources conservation claim that adaptive management is the approach they use in meeting their resource management responsibilities. Yet there remains considerable ambiguity about what adaptive management actually is, and how it is to be implemented by practitioners. The objective of this paper is to present a framework and conditions for adaptive decision making, and discuss some important challenges in its application. Adaptive management is described as a two-phase process of deliberative and iterative phases, which are implemented sequentially over the timeframe of an application. Key elements, processes, and issues in adaptive decision making are highlighted in terms of this framework. Special emphasis is given to the question of geographic scale, the difficulties presented by non-stationarity, and organizational challenges in implementing adaptive management. ?? 2010.

  19. Clinical decision support foundations.

    PubMed

    Pradhan, Malcolm; Liaw, Siaw Teng

    2010-01-01

    This chapter gives an educational overview of: * The elements of a clinical decision; * The elements of decision making: prior probability, evidence (likelihood), posterior probability, actions, utility (value); * A framework for decision making, and support, encompassing validity, utility, importance and certainty; and * The required elements of a clinical decision support system. * The role of knowledge management in the construction and maintenance of clinical decision support.

  20. Incorporating geodiversity into conservation decisions.

    PubMed

    Comer, Patrick J; Pressey, Robert L; Hunter, Malcolm L; Schloss, Carrie A; Buttrick, Steven C; Heller, Nicole E; Tirpak, John M; Faith, Daniel P; Cross, Molly S; Shaffer, Mark L

    2015-06-01

    In a rapidly changing climate, conservation practitioners could better use geodiversity in a broad range of conservation decisions. We explored selected avenues through which this integration might improve decision making and organized them within the adaptive management cycle of assessment, planning, implementation, and monitoring. Geodiversity is seldom referenced in predominant environmental law and policy. With most natural resource agencies mandated to conserve certain categories of species, agency personnel are challenged to find ways to practically implement new directives aimed at coping with climate change while retaining their species-centered mandate. Ecoregions and ecological classifications provide clear mechanisms to consider geodiversity in plans or decisions, the inclusion of which will help foster the resilience of conservation to climate change. Methods for biodiversity assessment, such as gap analysis, climate change vulnerability analysis, and ecological process modeling, can readily accommodate inclusion of a geophysical component. We adapted others' approaches for characterizing landscapes along a continuum of climate change vulnerability for the biota they support from resistant, to resilient, to susceptible, and to sensitive and then summarized options for integrating geodiversity into planning in each landscape type. In landscapes that are relatively resistant to climate change, options exist to fully represent geodiversity while ensuring that dynamic ecological processes can change over time. In more susceptible landscapes, strategies aiming to maintain or restore ecosystem resilience and connectivity are paramount. Implementing actions on the ground requires understanding of geophysical constraints on species and an increasingly nimble approach to establishing management and restoration goals. Because decisions that are implemented today will be revisited and amended into the future, increasingly sophisticated forms of monitoring and

  1. Developing More Adaptable Individuals and Institutions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-02-01

    Douze, Reinout Pieneman, Anne - Marie Grisogono, Learning to be Adaptive, 14th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium...Princeton University Press, 2006). Also people are very busy, 19 Anne - Marie Grizogono, The Science of Complex Adaptive Systems and Applications...Decisions Research Institutes, Inc., 15 July 2006. Grizogono, Anne - Marie . The Science of Complex Adaptive Systems and Applications to Defense Systems and

  2. Decision time for clinical decision support systems.

    PubMed

    O'Sullivan, Dympna; Fraccaro, Paolo; Carson, Ewart; Weller, Peter

    2014-08-01

    Clinical decision support systems are interactive software systems designed to help clinicians with decision-making tasks, such as determining a diagnosis or recommending a treatment for a patient. Clinical decision support systems are a widely researched topic in the computer science community, but their inner workings are less well understood by, and known to, clinicians. This article provides a brief explanation of clinical decision support systems and some examples of real-world systems. It also describes some of the challenges to implementing these systems in clinical environments and posits some reasons for the limited adoption of decision-support systems in practice. It aims to engage clinicians in the development of decision support systems that can meaningfully help with their decision-making tasks and to open a discussion about the future of automated clinical decision support as a part of healthcare delivery. © 2014 Royal College of Physicians.

  3. Cold adaptations.

    PubMed

    Launay, Jean-Claude; Savourey, Gustave

    2009-07-01

    Nowdays, occupational and recreational activities in cold environments are common. Exposure to cold induces thermoregulatory responses like changes of behaviour and physiological adjustments to maintain thermal balance either by increasing metabolic heat production by shivering and/or by decreasing heat losses consecutive to peripheral cutaneous vasoconstriction. Those physiological responses present a great variability among individuals and depend mainly on biometrical characteristics, age, and general cold adaptation. During severe cold exposure, medical disorders may occur such as accidental hypothermia and/or freezing or non-freezing cold injuries. General cold adaptations have been qualitatively classified by Hammel and quantitatively by Savourey. This last classification takes into account the quantitative changes of the main cold reactions: higher or lower metabolic heat production, higher or lesser heat losses and finally the level of the core temperature observed at the end of a standardized exposure to cold. General cold adaptations observed previously in natives could also be developed in laboratory conditions by continuous or intermittent cold exposures. Beside general cold adaptation, local cold adaptation exists and is characterized by a lesser decrease of skin temperature, a more pronounced cold induced vasodilation, less pain and a higher manual dexterity. Adaptations to cold may reduce the occurrence of accidents and improve human performance as surviving in the cold. The present review describes both general and local cold adaptations in humans and how they are of interest for cold workers.

  4. The clinical decision analysis using decision tree

    PubMed Central

    Bae, Jong-Myon

    2014-01-01

    The clinical decision analysis (CDA) has used to overcome complexity and uncertainty in medical problems. The CDA is a tool allowing decision-makers to apply evidence-based medicine to make objective clinical decisions when faced with complex situations. The usefulness and limitation including six steps in conducting CDA were reviewed. The application of CDA results should be done under shared decision with patients’ value. PMID:25358466

  5. The clinical decision analysis using decision tree.

    PubMed

    Bae, Jong-Myon

    2014-01-01

    The clinical decision analysis (CDA) has used to overcome complexity and uncertainty in medical problems. The CDA is a tool allowing decision-makers to apply evidence-based medicine to make objective clinical decisions when faced with complex situations. The usefulness and limitation including six steps in conducting CDA were reviewed. The application of CDA results should be done under shared decision with patients' value.

  6. Adaptive response modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campa, Alessandro; Esposito, Giuseppe; Belli, Mauro

    Cellular response to radiation is often modified by a previous delivery of a small "priming" dose: a smaller amount of damage, defined by the end point being investigated, is observed, and for this reason the effect is called adaptive response. An improved understanding of this effect is essential (as much as for the case of the bystander effect) for a reliable radiation risk assessment when low dose irradiations are involved. Experiments on adaptive response have shown that there are a number of factors that strongly influence the occurrence (and the level) of the adaptation. In particular, priming doses and dose rates have to fall in defined ranges; the same is true for the time interval between the delivery of the small priming dose and the irradiation with the main, larger, dose (called in this case challenging dose). Different hypotheses can be formulated on the main mechanism(s) determining the adaptive response: an increased efficiency of DNA repair, an increased level of antioxidant enzymes, an alteration of cell cycle progression, a chromatin conformation change. An experimental clearcut evidence going definitely in the direction of one of these explanations is not yet available. Modelling can be done at different levels. Simple models, relating the amount of damage, through elementary differential equations, to the dose and dose rate experienced by the cell, are relatively easy to handle, and they can be modified to account for the priming irradiation. However, this can hardly be of decisive help in the explanation of the mechanisms, since each parameter of these models often incorporates in an effective way several cellular processes related to the response to radiation. In this presentation we show our attempts to describe adaptive response with models that explicitly contain, as a dynamical variable, the inducible adaptive agent. At a price of a more difficult treatment, this approach is probably more prone to give support to the experimental studies

  7. Tactical Decision Making and Decision Support Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harmon, Joel I.

    1986-01-01

    The use of computerized decision support systems in higher education for making tactical institutional decisions is reviewed, with attention to the kind of administrative problems that lie somewhere between programmed to nonprogrammed decisions and require a combination of computer support and administrative judgment. (MSE)

  8. A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions.

    PubMed

    Krajbich, Ian; Hare, Todd; Bartling, Björn; Morishima, Yosuke; Fehr, Ernst

    2015-10-01

    People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.

  9. A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions

    PubMed Central

    Krajbich, Ian; Hare, Todd; Bartling, Björn; Morishima, Yosuke; Fehr, Ernst

    2015-01-01

    People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others’ benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making. PMID:26460812

  10. A control-theory model for human decision-making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levison, W. H.; Tanner, R. B.

    1971-01-01

    A model for human decision making is an adaptation of an optimal control model for pilot/vehicle systems. The models for decision and control both contain concepts of time delay, observation noise, optimal prediction, and optimal estimation. The decision making model was intended for situations in which the human bases his decision on his estimate of the state of a linear plant. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (a) single decision tasks, (b) two-decision tasks, and (c) simultaneous manual control and decision making. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance can be predicted to within an accuracy of 10 percent. Agreement is less good for the simultaneous decision and control situation.

  11. Counseling for Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smaby, Marlowe H.; Tamminen, Armas W.

    1978-01-01

    This article presents a model for training counselors to help counselees in the process of making decisions. An effective decision-helping approach that includes processing decisions, relating values to process, and relating actions to beliefs is presented. (Author)

  12. Toothbrush Adaptations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Exceptional Parent, 1987

    1987-01-01

    Suggestions are presented for helping disabled individuals learn to use or adapt toothbrushes for proper dental care. A directory lists dental health instructional materials available from various organizations. (CB)

  13. The Influence of Children's Temperament Characteristics on Teachers' Decision Strategies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pullis, Michael; Cadwell, Joel

    1982-01-01

    Thirteen primary teachers provided information on 321 students concerning the students' temperament characteristics, school performance estimates, and classroom management decisions. Factor analysis of the temperament measures yielded three independent factors: Task Orientation, Adaptability, and Reactivity. A strong and consistent relationship…

  14. 43 CFR 46.145 - Using adaptive management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... implementation decisions. The NEPA analysis conducted in the context of an adaptive management approach should... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Using adaptive management. 46.145 Section... management. Bureaus should use adaptive management, as appropriate, particularly in circumstances where long...

  15. Continuous adaptive monitoring of status and trends in ecosystem conditions

    Treesearch

    R. L. Czaplewski

    1996-01-01

    Adaptive management uses an experimental approach in the stewardship of our natural resources. This paper advocates the complementary concept of "adaptive monitoring" to observe and evaluate the outcomes of these experiments. Adaptive management acknowledges that decisions must be made in spite of imperfect understanding of their consequences;...

  16. Minimal Representation and Decision Making for Networked Autonomous Agents

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-08-27

    multiagent systems . The overall goal of the project is to develop efficient and adaptive strategies to process, represent, exchange, and act upon relevant...decentralized planning, and decision-making in multiagent systems . The overall goal of the project is to develop efficient and adaptive strategies to...information representation architectures for autonomous reasoning and learning, decentralized planning, and decision-making in multiagent systems . The

  17. Group performance and decision making.

    PubMed

    Kerr, Norbert L; Tindale, R Scott

    2004-01-01

    Theory and research on small group performance and decision making is reviewed. Recent trends in group performance research have found that process gains as well as losses are possible, and both are frequently explained by situational and procedural contexts that differentially affect motivation and resource coordination. Research has continued on classic topics (e.g., brainstorming, group goal setting, stress, and group performance) and relatively new areas (e.g., collective induction). Group decision making research has focused on preference combination for continuous response distributions and group information processing. New approaches (e.g., group-level signal detection) and traditional topics (e.g., groupthink) are discussed. New directions, such as nonlinear dynamic systems, evolutionary adaptation, and technological advances, should keep small group research vigorous well into the future.

  18. Mindful judgment and decision making.

    PubMed

    Weber, Elke U; Johnson, Eric J

    2009-01-01

    A full range of psychological processes has been put into play to explain judgment and choice phenomena. Complementing work on attention, information integration, and learning, decision research over the past 10 years has also examined the effects of goals, mental representation, and memory processes. In addition to deliberative processes, automatic processes have gotten closer attention, and the emotions revolution has put affective processes on a footing equal to cognitive ones. Psychological process models provide natural predictions about individual differences and lifespan changes and integrate across judgment and decision making (JDM) phenomena. "Mindful" JDM research leverages our knowledge about psychological processes into causal explanations for important judgment and choice regularities, emphasizing the adaptive use of an abundance of processing alternatives. Such explanations supplement and support existing mathematical descriptions of phenomena such as loss aversion or hyperbolic discounting. Unlike such descriptions, they also provide entry points for interventions designed to help people overcome judgments or choices considered undesirable.

  19. Shaping Good Decision Makers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lincoln, Wanda

    1992-01-01

    Presents suggestions on how to incorporate elementary student decision making into classroom routine. The article recommends teachers be models, provide food for thought, focus on student strengths, introduce decision-making processes, and provide practice. Seven steps to making good decisions and activities to develop decision-making skills are…

  20. Adaptive management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management where knowledge is incomplete, and when, despite inherent uncertainty, managers and policymakers must act. Unlike a traditional trial and error approach, adaptive management has explicit structure, including a careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. The process is iterative, and serves to reduce uncertainty, build knowledge and improve management over time in a goal-oriented and structured process.

  1. Game theory and neural basis of social decision making.

    PubMed

    Lee, Daeyeol

    2008-04-01

    Decision making in a social group has two distinguishing features. First, humans and other animals routinely alter their behavior in response to changes in their physical and social environment. As a result, the outcomes of decisions that depend on the behavior of multiple decision makers are difficult to predict and require highly adaptive decision-making strategies. Second, decision makers may have preferences regarding consequences to other individuals and therefore choose their actions to improve or reduce the well-being of others. Many neurobiological studies have exploited game theory to probe the neural basis of decision making and suggested that these features of social decision making might be reflected in the functions of brain areas involved in reward evaluation and reinforcement learning. Molecular genetic studies have also begun to identify genetic mechanisms for personal traits related to reinforcement learning and complex social decision making, further illuminating the biological basis of social behavior.

  2. Adaptive Optics Metrics & QC Scheme

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girard, Julien H.

    2017-09-01

    "There are many Adaptive Optics (AO) fed instruments on Paranal and more to come. To monitor their performances and assess the quality of the scientific data, we have developed a scheme and a set of tools and metrics adapted to each flavour of AO and each data product. Our decisions to repeat observations or not depends heavily on this immediate quality control "zero" (QC0). Atmospheric parameters monitoring can also help predict performances . At the end of the chain, the user must be able to find the data that correspond to his/her needs. In Particular, we address the special case of SPHERE."

  3. Reducing uncertainty about objective functions in adaptive management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, B.K.

    2012-01-01

    This paper extends the uncertainty framework of adaptive management to include uncertainty about the objectives to be used in guiding decisions. Adaptive decision making typically assumes explicit and agreed-upon objectives for management, but allows for uncertainty as to the structure of the decision process that generates change through time. Yet it is not unusual for there to be uncertainty (or disagreement) about objectives, with different stakeholders expressing different views not only about resource responses to management but also about the appropriate management objectives. In this paper I extend the treatment of uncertainty in adaptive management, and describe a stochastic structure for the joint occurrence of uncertainty about objectives as well as models, and show how adaptive decision making and the assessment of post-decision monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties of both kinds. Different degrees of association between model and objective uncertainty lead to different patterns of learning about objectives. ?? 2011.

  4. Promoting Metacognitive Decision-Making in Teacher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griffith, Robin; Bauml, Michelle; Quebec-Fuentes, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Effective teachers are characterized by their abilities to make thoughtful, deliberate, and informed adaptations while teaching (Hoffman & Pearson, 2000). These in-the-moment teaching decisions are guided by a complex web of teacher knowledge. Raising teachers' awareness of the decisions they make on a moment-by-moment basis may aid in…

  5. Promoting Metacognitive Decision-Making in Teacher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griffith, Robin; Bauml, Michelle; Quebec-Fuentes, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Effective teachers are characterized by their abilities to make thoughtful, deliberate, and informed adaptations while teaching (Hoffman & Pearson, 2000). These in-the-moment teaching decisions are guided by a complex web of teacher knowledge. Raising teachers' awareness of the decisions they make on a moment-by-moment basis may aid in…

  6. Adaptive Thresholds

    SciTech Connect

    Bremer, P. -T.

    2014-08-26

    ADAPT is a topological analysis code that allow to compute local threshold, in particular relevance based thresholds for features defined in scalar fields. The initial target application is vortex detection but the software is more generally applicable to all threshold based feature definitions.

  7. Adaptation of adaptive optics systems.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xin, Yu; Zhao, Dazun; Li, Chen

    1997-10-01

    In the paper, a concept of an adaptation of adaptive optical system (AAOS) is proposed. The AAOS has certain real time optimization ability against the variation of the brightness of detected objects m, atmospheric coherence length rO and atmospheric time constant τ by means of changing subaperture number and diameter, dynamic range, and system's temporal response. The necessity of AAOS using a Hartmann-Shack wavefront sensor and some technical approaches are discussed. Scheme and simulation of an AAOS with variable subaperture ability by use of both hardware and software are presented as an example of the system.

  8. Inertia and Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Hügelschäfer, Sabine; Li, Jiahui

    2016-01-01

    Decision inertia is the tendency to repeat previous choices independently of the outcome, which can give rise to perseveration in suboptimal choices. We investigate this tendency in probability-updating tasks. Study 1 shows that, whenever decision inertia conflicts with normatively optimal behavior (Bayesian updating), error rates are larger and decisions are slower. This is consistent with a dual-process view of decision inertia as an automatic process conflicting with a more rational, controlled one. We find evidence of decision inertia in both required and autonomous decisions, but the effect of inertia is more clear in the latter. Study 2 considers more complex decision situations where further conflict arises due to reinforcement processes. We find the same effects of decision inertia when reinforcement is aligned with Bayesian updating, but if the two latter processes conflict, the effects are limited to autonomous choices. Additionally, both studies show that the tendency to rely on decision inertia is positively associated with preference for consistency.

  9. Complex Adaptive Special Operations (CASO)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-01-01

    impeded by an organizational command and control superstructure designed to support a centralized decision making process. The four components of...and David. Organizational Survival in the New World: The Intelligent Complex Adaptive System (Burlington, MA: KMCI Press, 2004), 295. 2 Clay, Peter... Behavoir , http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/flocking_%28behavior%29, accessed 2 December 2006. 54 Possible CASO rules may include: exposure – don’t get

  10. Decisions about Work. Adolescent Decisions Curriculum.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brion-Meisels, Steven; And Others

    This teacher's manual is one volume of a six volume curriculum for the secondary level, designed to provide a systematic, group-oriented approach to decision-making in areas crucial to adolescent development: work, drug (substance) use and abuse, sexuality and social relationships, people and government, and juvenile law. The decisions about work…

  11. Automation: Decision Aid or Decision Maker?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Skitka, Linda J.

    1998-01-01

    This study clarified that automation bias is something unique to automated decision making contexts, and is not the result of a general tendency toward complacency. By comparing performance on exactly the same events on the same tasks with and without an automated decision aid, we were able to determine that at least the omission error part of automation bias is due to the unique context created by having an automated decision aid, and is not a phenomena that would occur even if people were not in an automated context. However, this study also revealed that having an automated decision aid did lead to modestly improved performance across all non-error events. Participants in the non- automated condition responded with 83.68% accuracy, whereas participants in the automated condition responded with 88.67% accuracy, across all events. Automated decision aids clearly led to better overall performance when they were accurate. People performed almost exactly at the level of reliability as the automation (which across events was 88% reliable). However, also clear, is that the presence of less than 100% accurate automated decision aids creates a context in which new kinds of errors in decision making can occur. Participants in the non-automated condition responded with 97% accuracy on the six "error" events, whereas participants in the automated condition had only a 65% accuracy rate when confronted with those same six events. In short, the presence of an AMA can lead to vigilance decrements that can lead to errors in decision making.

  12. Passive and active adaptive management: approaches and an example.

    PubMed

    Williams, Byron K

    2011-05-01

    Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. Yet there remains considerable confusion about what adaptive management entails, and how to actually make resource decisions adaptively. A key but somewhat ambiguous distinction in adaptive management is between active and passive forms of adaptive decision making. The objective of this paper is to illustrate some approaches to active and passive adaptive management with a simple example involving the drawdown of water impoundments on a wildlife refuge. The approaches are illustrated for the drawdown example, and contrasted in terms of objectives, costs, and potential learning rates. Some key challenges to the actual practice of AM are discussed, and tradeoffs between implementation costs and long-term benefits are highlighted.

  13. Passive and active adaptive management: Approaches and an example

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, B.K.

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. Yet there remains considerable confusion about what adaptive management entails, and how to actually make resource decisions adaptively. A key but somewhat ambiguous distinction in adaptive management is between active and passive forms of adaptive decision making. The objective of this paper is to illustrate some approaches to active and passive adaptive management with a simple example involving the drawdown of water impoundments on a wildlife refuge. The approaches are illustrated for the drawdown example, and contrasted in terms of objectives, costs, and potential learning rates. Some key challenges to the actual practice of AM are discussed, and tradeoffs between implementation costs and long-term benefits are highlighted. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  14. NASA Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Stamatelatos, Michael; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher; Youngblood, Robert; Rutledge, Peter; Benjamin, Allan; Williams, Rodney; Smith, Curtis; Guarro, Sergio

    2010-01-01

    This handbook provides guidance for conducting risk-informed decision making in the context of NASA risk management (RM), with a focus on the types of direction-setting key decisions that are characteristic of the NASA program and project life cycles, and which produce derived requirements in accordance with existing systems engineering practices that flow down through the NASA organizational hierarchy. The guidance in this handbook is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular decision problems that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when making decisions in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced.

  15. Performance of adaptive matched filter receivers over fading multipath channels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pahlavan, Kaveh; Matthews, James W.

    1990-12-01

    A unified discrete channel model from the information source up to the sampler was developed for fading multipath channels. Different methods for adaptive channel measurement are studied. The performance of a discrete matched filter using different adaptation techniques and working over a troposcatter channel is predicted. It is shown that the effects of channel measurement noise are less damaging for the decision-directed adaptation technique as compared to any kind of reference-directed adaptation.

  16. Connector adapter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hacker, Scott C. (Inventor); Dean, Richard J. (Inventor); Burge, Scott W. (Inventor); Dartez, Toby W. (Inventor)

    2007-01-01

    An adapter for installing a connector to a terminal post, wherein the connector is attached to a cable, is presented. In an embodiment, the adapter is comprised of an elongated collet member having a longitudinal axis comprised of a first collet member end, a second collet member end, an outer collet member surface, and an inner collet member surface. The inner collet member surface at the first collet member end is used to engage the connector. The outer collet member surface at the first collet member end is tapered for a predetermined first length at a predetermined taper angle. The collet includes a longitudinal slot that extends along the longitudinal axis initiating at the first collet member end for a predetermined second length. The first collet member end is formed of a predetermined number of sections segregated by a predetermined number of channels and the longitudinal slot.

  17. Adaptive sampler

    DOEpatents

    Watson, B.L.; Aeby, I.

    1980-08-26

    An adaptive data compression device for compressing data is described. The device has a frequency content, including a plurality of digital filters for analyzing the content of the data over a plurality of frequency regions, a memory, and a control logic circuit for generating a variable rate memory clock corresponding to the analyzed frequency content of the data in the frequency region and for clocking the data into the memory in response to the variable rate memory clock.

  18. Adaptive sampler

    DOEpatents

    Watson, Bobby L.; Aeby, Ian

    1982-01-01

    An adaptive data compression device for compressing data having variable frequency content, including a plurality of digital filters for analyzing the content of the data over a plurality of frequency regions, a memory, and a control logic circuit for generating a variable rate memory clock corresponding to the analyzed frequency content of the data in the frequency region and for clocking the data into the memory in response to the variable rate memory clock.

  19. Adaptive antennas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barton, P.

    1987-04-01

    The basic principles of adaptive antennas are outlined in terms of the Wiener-Hopf expression for maximizing signal to noise ratio in an arbitrary noise environment; the analogy with generalized matched filter theory provides a useful aid to understanding. For many applications, there is insufficient information to achieve the above solution and thus non-optimum constrained null steering algorithms are also described, together with a summary of methods for preventing wanted signals being nulled by the adaptive system. The three generic approaches to adaptive weight control are discussed; correlation steepest descent, weight perturbation and direct solutions based on sample matrix conversion. The tradeoffs between hardware complexity and performance in terms of null depth and convergence rate are outlined. The sidelobe cancellor technique is described. Performance variation with jammer power and angular distribution is summarized and the key performance limitations identified. The configuration and performance characteristics of both multiple beam and phase scan array antennas are covered, with a brief discussion of performance factors.

  20. Precipitation Variability and Projection Uncertainties in Climate Change Adaptation: Go Local!

    EPA Science Inventory

    Presentations agenda includes: Regional and local climate change effects: The relevance; Variability and uncertainty in decision- making and adaptation approaches; Adaptation attributes for the U.S. Southwest: Water availability, storage capacity, and related; EPA research...

  1. Categorization = Decision Making + Generalization

    PubMed Central

    Seger, Carol A; Peterson, Erik J.

    2013-01-01

    We rarely, if ever, repeatedly encounter exactly the same situation. This makes generalization crucial for real world decision making. We argue that categorization, the study of generalizable representations, is a type of decision making, and that categorization learning research would benefit from approaches developed to study the neuroscience of decision making. Similarly, methods developed to examine generalization and learning within the field of categorization may enhance decision making research. We first discuss perceptual information processing and integration, with an emphasis on accumulator models. We then examine learning the value of different decision making choices via experience, emphasizing reinforcement learning modeling approaches. Next we discuss how value is combined with other factors in decision making, emphasizing the effects of uncertainty. Finally, we describe how a final decision is selected via thresholding processes implemented by the basal ganglia and related regions. We also consider how memory related functions in the hippocampus may be integrated with decision making mechanisms and contribute to categorization. PMID:23548891

  2. Adapting agriculture to climate change.

    PubMed

    Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-12-11

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

  3. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Howden, S. Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists. PMID:18077402

  4. Interorganizational decision making.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tuite, M. (Editor); Chisholm, R.; Radnor, M.

    1972-01-01

    The papers are both theoretical and applied. They include contributions from a spectrum of academic specializations and from practitioners representing several organizations. The papers are divided into theoretical and applied groupings reflecting a variety of systems levels and institutional examples, and into those papers which emphasized the organization structure requirements of interorganizational decision making, those that emphasized the behavioral requirements of interorganizational decision making, and those that developed decision technologies for interorganizational decision making.

  5. Quorum responses and consensus decision making

    PubMed Central

    Sumpter, David J.T.; Pratt, Stephen C.

    2008-01-01

    Animal groups are said to make consensus decisions when group members come to agree on the same option. Consensus decisions are taxonomically widespread and potentially offer three key benefits: maintenance of group cohesion, enhancement of decision accuracy compared with lone individuals and improvement in decision speed. In the absence of centralized control, arriving at a consensus depends on local interactions in which each individual's likelihood of choosing an option increases with the number of others already committed to that option. The resulting positive feedback can effectively direct most or all group members to the best available choice. In this paper, we examine the functional form of the individual response to others' behaviour that lies at the heart of this process. We review recent theoretical and empirical work on consensus decisions, and we develop a simple mathematical model to show the central importance to speedy and accurate decisions of quorum responses, in which an animal's probability of exhibiting a behaviour is a sharply nonlinear function of the number of other individuals already performing this behaviour. We argue that systems relying on such quorum rules can achieve cohesive choice of the best option while also permitting adaptive tuning of the trade-off between decision speed and accuracy. PMID:19073480

  6. Collective decisions among bacterial viruses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joh, Richard; Mileyko, Yuriy; Voit, Eberhard; Weitz, Joshua

    2010-03-01

    For many temperate bacteriophages, the decision of whether to kill hosts or enter a latent state depends on the multiplicity of infection. In this talk, I present a quantitative model of gene regulatory dynamics to describe how phages make collective decisions within host cells. Unlike most previous studies, the copy number of viral genomes is treated as a variable. In the absence of feedback loops, viral mRNA transcription is expected to be proportional to the viral copy number. However, when there are nonlinear feedback loops in viral gene regulation, our model shows that gene expression patterns are sensitive to changes in viral copy number and there can be a domain of copy number where the system becomes bistable. Hence, the viral copy number is a key control parameter determining host cell fates. This suggests that bacterial viruses can respond adaptively to changes in population dynamics, and can make alternative decisions as a bet-hedging strategy. Finally, I present a stochastic version of viral gene regulation and discuss speed-accuracy trade-offs in the context of cell fate determination by viruses.

  7. A holistic strategy for adaptive land management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Duniway, Michael C.; Pyke, David A.; Bestelmeyer, Brandon T.; Wills, Skye A.; Brown, Joel R.; Karl, Jason W.; Havstad, Kris M.

    2012-01-01

    Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management (Holling 1973; Walters and Holling 1990). Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adaptation of management until desired results are achieved (Brown and MacLeod 1996; Savory and Butterfield 1999). However, adaptive management is often criticized because very few projects ever complete more than one cycle, resulting in little adaptation and little knowledge gain (Lee 1999; Walters 2007). One significant criticism is that adaptive management is often used as a justification for undertaking actions with uncertain outcomes or as a surrogate for the development of specific, measurable indicators and monitoring programs (Lee 1999; Ruhl 2007).

  8. Building Capacity for Collaborative Decisions, Resilient Ecosystems, and Sustainable Practices: Water, Land, Communtiy and People in Estuarine Watersheds

    EPA Science Inventory

    Population growth, urban expansion, and the warming climate have and will continue to stress our coastal ecosystems. Decisions on how and when to respond with stewardship, adaptation, and mitigation are made by individuals, municipalities, states, and agencies. These decisions ...

  9. Building Capacity for Collaborative Decisions, Resilient Ecosystems, and Sustainable Practices: Water, Land, Communtiy and People in Estuarine Watersheds

    EPA Science Inventory

    Population growth, urban expansion, and the warming climate have and will continue to stress our coastal ecosystems. Decisions on how and when to respond with stewardship, adaptation, and mitigation are made by individuals, municipalities, states, and agencies. These decisions ...

  10. Sustainability Based Decision Making

    EPA Science Inventory

    With sustainability as the “true north” for EPA research, a premium is placed on the ability to make decisions under highly complex and uncertain conditions. The primary challenge is reconciling disparate criteria toward credible and defensible decisions. Making decisions on on...

  11. Measurement Decision Theory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rudner, Lawrence M.

    This paper describes and evaluates the use of decision theory as a tool for classifying examinees based on their item response patterns. Decision theory, developed by A. Wald (1947) and now widely used in engineering, agriculture, and computing, provides a simple model for the analysis of categorical data. Measurement decision theory requires only…

  12. Decisions for Industry

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Atthill, Charles

    1974-01-01

    The main aim of the Decisions projects is to illustrate, through group work, some of the features of decision making in the business world. The exercises take as their starting point real problems confronting an oil company, and use real data as the basis for problem solving and decision making. (Author)

  13. Sustainability Based Decision Making

    EPA Science Inventory

    With sustainability as the “true north” for EPA research, a premium is placed on the ability to make decisions under highly complex and uncertain conditions. The primary challenge is reconciling disparate criteria toward credible and defensible decisions. Making decisions on on...

  14. Teachers' Grading Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Isnawati, Ida; Saukah, Ali

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated teachers' grading decision making, focusing on their beliefs underlying their grading decision making, their grading practices and assessment types, and factors they considered in grading decision making. Two teachers from two junior high schools applying different curriculum policies in grade reporting in Indonesian…

  15. Implications of the KONVERGENCE Model for Difficult Cleanup Decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Piet, Steven James; Dakins, Maxine Ellen; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon

    2002-08-04

    Abstract—Some cleanup decisions, such as cleanup of intractable contaminated sites or disposal of spent nuclear fuel, have proven difficult to make. Such decisions face high resistance to agreement from stakeholders possibly because they do not trust the decision makers, view the consequences of being wrong as too high, etc. Our project’s goal is to improve sciencebased cleanup decision-making. This includes diagnosing intractable situations, as a step to identifying a path toward sustainable solutions. Companion papers describe the underlying philosophy of the KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions,1 and the overall framework and process steps.2 Where knowledge, values, and resources converge (the K, V, and R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision – a decision that works over time. For intractable cases, serious consideration of the adaptable class of alternatives is warranted – if properly implemented and packaged.

  16. Make better decisions.

    PubMed

    Davenport, Thomas H

    2009-11-01

    Traditionally, decision making in organizations has rarely been the focus of systematic analysis. That may account for the astounding number of recent poor calls, such as decisions to invest in and securitize subprime mortgage loans or to hedge risk with credit default swaps. Business books are rich with insights about the decision process, but organizations have been slow to adopt their recommendations. It's time to focus on decision making, Davenport says, and he proposes four steps: (1) List and prioritize the decisions that must be made; (2) assess the factors that go into each, such as who plays what role, how often the decision must be made, and what information is available to support it; (3) design the roles, processes, systems, and behaviors your organization needs; and (4) institutionalize decision tools and assistance. The Educational Testing Service and The Stanley Works, among others, have succeeded in improving their decisions. ETS established a centralized deliberative body to make evidence-based decisions about new-product offerings, and Stanley has a Pricing Center of Excellence with internal consultants dedicated to its various business units. Leaders should bring multiple perspectives to their decision making, beware of analytical models that managers don't understand, be clear about their assumptions, practice "model management," and--because only people can revise decision criteria over time--cultivate human backups.

  17. Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

    2013-01-01

    Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

  18. Adaptive sampling in behavioral surveys.

    PubMed

    Thompson, S K

    1997-01-01

    Studies of populations such as drug users encounter difficulties because the members of the populations are rare, hidden, or hard to reach. Conventionally designed large-scale surveys detect relatively few members of the populations so that estimates of population characteristics have high uncertainty. Ethnographic studies, on the other hand, reach suitable numbers of individuals only through the use of link-tracing, chain referral, or snowball sampling procedures that often leave the investigators unable to make inferences from their sample to the hidden population as a whole. In adaptive sampling, the procedure for selecting people or other units to be in the sample depends on variables of interest observed during the survey, so the design adapts to the population as encountered. For example, when self-reported drug use is found among members of the sample, sampling effort may be increased in nearby areas. Types of adaptive sampling designs include ordinary sequential sampling, adaptive allocation in stratified sampling, adaptive cluster sampling, and optimal model-based designs. Graph sampling refers to situations with nodes (for example, people) connected by edges (such as social links or geographic proximity). An initial sample of nodes or edges is selected and edges are subsequently followed to bring other nodes into the sample. Graph sampling designs include network sampling, snowball sampling, link-tracing, chain referral, and adaptive cluster sampling. A graph sampling design is adaptive if the decision to include linked nodes depends on variables of interest observed on nodes already in the sample. Adjustment methods for nonsampling errors such as imperfect detection of drug users in the sample apply to adaptive as well as conventional designs.

  19. Decision Maker based on Nanoscale Photo-excitation Transfer

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Song-Ju; Naruse, Makoto; Aono, Masashi; Ohtsu, Motoichi; Hara, Masahiko

    2013-01-01

    Decision-making is one of the most important intellectual abilities of the human brain. Here we propose an efficient decision-making system which uses optical energy transfer between quantum dots (QDs) mediated by optical near-field interactions occurring at scales far below the wavelength of light. The simulation results indicate that our system outperforms the softmax rule, which is known as the best-fitting algorithm for human decision-making behaviour. This suggests that we can produce a nano-system which makes decisions efficiently and adaptively by exploiting the intrinsic spatiotemporal dynamics involving QDs mediated by optical near-field interactions. PMID:23928655

  20. Small-group decision making can be effective management tool.

    PubMed

    Kennedy, R

    1978-01-01

    One of the key components of effective management is the ability to make decisions. To more effectively assist hospital supervisors and managers in dealing with and making appropriate judgments, educators need to examine carefully the processes involved in decision making and how they impact on both the individual and the group. The following discussion of structured small-group decision making is adapted from an independent study of the literature undertaken by this author to dissect these processes and how they impact on the decisions made.

  1. Decision Maker based on Nanoscale Photo-excitation Transfer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Song-Ju; Naruse, Makoto; Aono, Masashi; Ohtsu, Motoichi; Hara, Masahiko

    2013-08-01

    Decision-making is one of the most important intellectual abilities of the human brain. Here we propose an efficient decision-making system which uses optical energy transfer between quantum dots (QDs) mediated by optical near-field interactions occurring at scales far below the wavelength of light. The simulation results indicate that our system outperforms the softmax rule, which is known as the best-fitting algorithm for human decision-making behaviour. This suggests that we can produce a nano-system which makes decisions efficiently and adaptively by exploiting the intrinsic spatiotemporal dynamics involving QDs mediated by optical near-field interactions.

  2. A proposal for amending administrative law to facilitate adaptive management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Craig, Robin K.; Ruhl, J. B.; Brown, Eleanor D.; Williams, Byron K.

    2017-07-01

    In this article we examine how federal agencies use adaptive management. In order for federal agencies to implement adaptive management more successfully, administrative law must adapt to adaptive management, and we propose changes in administrative law that will help to steer the current process out of a dead end. Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making that is widely used in natural resources management. It involves specific steps integrated in an iterative process for adjusting management actions as new information becomes available. Theoretical requirements for adaptive management notwithstanding, federal agency decision making is subject to the requirements of the federal Administrative Procedure Act, and state agencies are subject to the states’ parallel statutes. We argue that conventional administrative law has unnecessarily shackled effective use of adaptive management. We show that through a specialized ‘adaptive management track’ of administrative procedures, the core values of administrative law—especially public participation, judicial review, and finality— can be implemented in ways that allow for more effective adaptive management. We present and explain draft model legislation (the Model Adaptive Management Procedure Act) that would create such a track for the specific types of agency decision making that could benefit from adaptive management.

  3. Making Decisions with Unknown Sensory Reliability

    PubMed Central

    Deneve, Sophie

    2012-01-01

    To make fast and accurate behavioral choices, we need to integrate noisy sensory input, take prior knowledge into account, and adjust our decision criteria. It was shown previously that in two-alternative-forced-choice tasks, optimal decision making can be formalized in the framework of a sequential probability ratio test and is then equivalent to a diffusion model. However, this analogy hides a “chicken and egg” problem: to know how quickly we should integrate the sensory input and set the optimal decision threshold, the reliability of the sensory observations must be known in advance. Most of the time, we cannot know this reliability without first observing the decision outcome. We consider here a Bayesian decision model that simultaneously infers the probability of two different choices and at the same time estimates the reliability of the sensory information on which this choice is based. We show that this can be achieved within a single trial, based on the noisy responses of sensory spiking neurons. The resulting model is a non-linear diffusion to bound where the weight of the sensory inputs and the decision threshold are both dynamically changing over time. In difficult decision trials, early sensory inputs have a stronger impact on the decision, and the threshold collapses such that choices are made faster but with low accuracy. The reverse is true in easy trials: the sensory weight and the threshold increase over time, leading to slower decisions but at much higher accuracy. In contrast to standard diffusion models, adaptive sensory weights construct an accurate representation for the probability of each choice. This information can then be combined appropriately with other unreliable cues, such as priors. We show that this model can account for recent findings in a motion discrimination task, and can be implemented in a neural architecture using fast Hebbian learning. PMID:22679418

  4. Making decisions with unknown sensory reliability.

    PubMed

    Deneve, Sophie

    2012-01-01

    To make fast and accurate behavioral choices, we need to integrate noisy sensory input, take prior knowledge into account, and adjust our decision criteria. It was shown previously that in two-alternative-forced-choice tasks, optimal decision making can be formalized in the framework of a sequential probability ratio test and is then equivalent to a diffusion model. However, this analogy hides a "chicken and egg" problem: to know how quickly we should integrate the sensory input and set the optimal decision threshold, the reliability of the sensory observations must be known in advance. Most of the time, we cannot know this reliability without first observing the decision outcome. We consider here a Bayesian decision model that simultaneously infers the probability of two different choices and at the same time estimates the reliability of the sensory information on which this choice is based. We show that this can be achieved within a single trial, based on the noisy responses of sensory spiking neurons. The resulting model is a non-linear diffusion to bound where the weight of the sensory inputs and the decision threshold are both dynamically changing over time. In difficult decision trials, early sensory inputs have a stronger impact on the decision, and the threshold collapses such that choices are made faster but with low accuracy. The reverse is true in easy trials: the sensory weight and the threshold increase over time, leading to slower decisions but at much higher accuracy. In contrast to standard diffusion models, adaptive sensory weights construct an accurate representation for the probability of each choice. This information can then be combined appropriately with other unreliable cues, such as priors. We show that this model can account for recent findings in a motion discrimination task, and can be implemented in a neural architecture using fast Hebbian learning.

  5. Novice high school science teachers: Lesson plan adaptations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scharon, Aracelis Janelle

    The Next Generation Science Standards (NRC, 2013) positions teachers as responsible for necessary decision making about how their intended science lesson plan content supports continuous student science learning. Teachers interact with their instructional lesson plans in dynamic and constructive ways. Adapting lesson plans is complex. This process of adapting lesson plans may play an important role in affording and constraining teachers' actions and students' learning (Brown, 2009). This study explored how five novice chemistry teachers (under 4 years of total teaching experience) at five Midwestern high schools adapted or retained their honors chemistry instructional lesson plans, and what associated contextual factors influenced their decisions. Using a case study design, this study was conducted during the fall semester of 2013 when teachers were focusing on introductory chemistry topics. Three frameworks (pedagogical content knowledge (PCK), teacher decision making, and pedagogical discontentment and self-efficacy) were used to investigate the relationships between teacher adaptations, contextual factors and decision making. The outcome of this study was the identification of 15 types of adaptations and 17 relevant contextual factors. Contextual factors were categorized by factors that relate to students or the teacher. Adaptations were categorized into three overarching types of adaptations: adapting the activity presented during the lesson, adapting the levels of support to assist students with the lesson plan content, and adapting the lesson plan to create another iteration of the same lesson plan that supports the next class. Lesson plan adaptations and contextual factors are discussed in the context of research on teacher decision making and lesson plan adaptations.

  6. Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Brooke, Cassandra

    2008-12-01

    The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.

  7. A coding system to measure elements of shared decision making during psychiatric visits.

    PubMed

    Salyers, Michelle P; Matthias, Marianne S; Fukui, Sadaaki; Holter, Mark C; Collins, Linda; Rose, Nichole; Thompson, John Brandon; Coffman, Melinda A; Torrey, William C

    2012-08-01

    Shared decision making is widely recognized to facilitate effective health care. The purpose of this study was to assess the applicability and usefulness of a scale to measure the presence and extent of shared decision making in clinical decisions in psychiatric practice. A coding scheme assessing shared decision making in general medical settings was adapted to mental health settings, and a manual for using the scheme was created. Trained raters used the adapted scale to analyze 170 audio-recordings of medication check-up visits with either psychiatrists or nurse practitioners. The scale assessed the level of shared decision making based on the presence of nine specific elements. Interrater reliability was examined, and the frequency with which elements of shared decision making were observed was documented. The association between visit length and extent of shared decision making was also examined. Interrater reliability among three raters on a subset of 20 recordings ranged from 67% to 100% agreement for the presence of each of the nine elements of shared decision making and 100% for the agreement between provider and consumer on decisions made. Of the 170 sessions, 128 (75%) included a clinical decision. Just over half of the decisions (53%) met minimum criteria for shared decision making. Shared decision making was not related to visit length after the analysis controlled for the complexity of the decision. The rating scale appears to reliably assess shared decision making in psychiatric practice and could be helpful for future research, training, and implementation efforts.

  8. The Testing Phase for the Small Unit Decision Making (SUDM) Assessment Battery

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-07-28

    of a decision-making assessment battery. The five cognitive competencies are sensemaking, problem solving, adaptability, metacognition , and... Metacognition Metacognitive Awareness Inventory MAWI S Attention Control Neuro-Cognitive Assessment NCA T Adaptability Adaptive Force Scale...Reasoning Metacognitive Activities Inventory MAI S Anomaly Detection Resilience Brief Resilience Scale BRS T Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale

  9. GPS Decision Analysis Process

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-06-23

    712 A/B: GPS Decision Analysis Process Revised title:___________________________________________________________________ Presented in (input and Bold...JUN 2005 2. REPORT TYPE N/A 3. DATES COVERED - 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE GPS Decision Analysis Process 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER...Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 GPS Decision Analysis Process Nisha Shah The Boeing Company 73rd MORS Symposium US Military Academy – West Point 21-23

  10. Decision Making in Action

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

  11. Inertia and Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Hügelschäfer, Sabine; Li, Jiahui

    2016-01-01

    Decision inertia is the tendency to repeat previous choices independently of the outcome, which can give rise to perseveration in suboptimal choices. We investigate this tendency in probability-updating tasks. Study 1 shows that, whenever decision inertia conflicts with normatively optimal behavior (Bayesian updating), error rates are larger and decisions are slower. This is consistent with a dual-process view of decision inertia as an automatic process conflicting with a more rational, controlled one. We find evidence of decision inertia in both required and autonomous decisions, but the effect of inertia is more clear in the latter. Study 2 considers more complex decision situations where further conflict arises due to reinforcement processes. We find the same effects of decision inertia when reinforcement is aligned with Bayesian updating, but if the two latter processes conflict, the effects are limited to autonomous choices. Additionally, both studies show that the tendency to rely on decision inertia is positively associated with preference for consistency. PMID:26909061

  12. Decision Making in Action

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

  13. Depression: a decision-theoretic analysis.

    PubMed

    Huys, Quentin J M; Daw, Nathaniel D; Dayan, Peter

    2015-07-08

    The manifold symptoms of depression are common and often transient features of healthy life that are likely to be adaptive in difficult circumstances. It is when these symptoms enter a seemingly self-propelling spiral that the maladaptive features of a disorder emerge. We examine this malignant transformation from the perspective of the computational neuroscience of decision making, investigating how dysfunction of the brain's mechanisms of evaluation might lie at its heart. We start by considering the behavioral implications of pessimistic evaluations of decision variables. We then provide a selective review of work suggesting how such pessimism might arise via specific failures of the mechanisms of evaluation or state estimation. Finally, we analyze ways that miscalibration between the subject and environment may be self-perpetuating. We employ the formal framework of Bayesian decision theory as a foundation for this study, showing how most of the problems arise from one of its broad algorithmic facets, namely model-based reasoning.

  14. Decision making: from neuroscience to psychiatry.

    PubMed

    Lee, Daeyeol

    2013-04-24

    Adaptive behaviors increase the likelihood of survival and reproduction and improve the quality of life. However, it is often difficult to identify optimal behaviors in real life due to the complexity of the decision maker's environment and social dynamics. As a result, although many different brain areas and circuits are involved in decision making, evolutionary and learning solutions adopted by individual decision makers sometimes produce suboptimal outcomes. Although these problems are exacerbated in numerous neurological and psychiatric disorders, their underlying neurobiological causes remain incompletely understood. In this review, theoretical frameworks in economics and machine learning and their applications in recent behavioral and neurobiological studies are summarized. Examples of such applications in clinical domains are also discussed for substance abuse, Parkinson's disease, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, schizophrenia, mood disorders, and autism. Findings from these studies have begun to lay the foundations necessary to improve diagnostics and treatment for various neurological and psychiatric disorders. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Adaptive Treatment Strategies in Chronic Disease

    PubMed Central

    Lavori, Philip W.; Dawson, Ree

    2009-01-01

    An adaptive treatment strategy (ATS) is a rule for adapting a treatment plan to a patient’s history of previous treatments and the response to those treatments. The ongoing management of chronic disease defines an ATS, which may be implicit and hidden, or explicit and well-specified. The ATS is characterized by the use of intermediate, early markers of response to dynamically alter treatment decisions, in order to achieve a favorable ultimate outcome. We illustrate the concept of ATS with some examples and describe the way that the effect of initial treatment decisions depends on the performance of subsequent decisions at later stages. We show how to compare two or more ATS, or to determine an optimal ATS, using a sequential multiple assignment randomized (SMAR) trial. We observe that clinical trials designers might find the ATS concept useful in improving the efficiency and ecological relevance of clinical trials. PMID:17914924

  16. The Relationship between Spirituality, Religiousness, and Career Adaptability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duffy, Ryan D.; Blustein, David L.

    2005-01-01

    The present study examined the relationship between spirituality, religiousness, and career adaptability using a sample of undergraduate students (N=144). We proposed that higher levels of religiousness and spirituality would predict higher levels of career adaptability, defined in this study by career decision self-efficacy and career choice…

  17. Adaptive Rule Based Fetal QRS Complex Detection Using Hilbert Transform

    PubMed Central

    Ulusar, Umit D.; Govindan, R.B.; Wilson, James D.; Lowery, Curtis L.; Preissl, Hubert; Eswaran, Hari

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we introduce an adaptive rule based QRS detection algorithm using the Hilbert transform (adHQRS) for fetal magnetocardiography processing. Hilbert transform is used to combine multiple channel measurements and the adaptive rule based decision process is used to eliminate spurious beats. The algorithm has been tested with a large number of datasets and promising results were obtained. PMID:19964648

  18. Adaptive rule based fetal QRS complex detection using Hilbert transform.

    PubMed

    Ulusar, Umit D; Govindan, R B; Wilson, James D; Lowery, Curtis L; Preissl, Hubert; Eswaran, Hari

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we introduce an adaptive rule based QRS detection algorithm using the Hilbert transform (adHQRS) for fetal magnetocardiography processing. Hilbert transform is used to combine multiple channel measurements and the adaptive rule based decision process is used to eliminate spurious beats. The algorithm has been tested with a large number of datasets and promising results were obtained.

  19. Long-Duration Environmentally-Adaptive Autonomous Rigorous Naval Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-09-30

    identification of sources of environmental pollutants , adjustment of ocean forcings in numerical simulations, estimation of numerical boundary...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Long-Duration Environmentally -Adaptive Autonomous...time, and accurately completes persistent learning, environmental adaptation, machine metacognition and decision making under uncertainty

  20. Science-management collaborations: Developing adaptation options for National Forests

    Treesearch

    Forest Service U.S. Department of Agriculture

    2010-01-01

    Climate is constantly changing, prompting natural and managed ecosystems to adjust. As a natural process, adaptation refers to the reactive changes that species and ecosystems make in response to environmental changes. With human intervention, adaptation refers to management actions and decisions that help ecological, social, and economic systems accommodate challenges...

  1. Adaptive Management for Urban Watersheds: The Slavic Village Pilot Project

    EPA Science Inventory

    Adaptive management is an environmental management strategy that uses an iterative process of decision-making to reduce the uncertainty in environmental management via system monitoring. A central tenet of adaptive management is that management involves a learning process that ca...

  2. Adaptive Management for Urban Watersheds: The Slavic Village Pilot Project

    EPA Science Inventory

    Adaptive management is an environmental management strategy that uses an iterative process of decision-making to reduce the uncertainty in environmental management via system monitoring. A central tenet of adaptive management is that management involves a learning process that ca...

  3. Decisions about Drug Use. Adolescent Decisions Curriculum.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brion-Meisels, Steven; And Others

    This teacher's manual for drug abuse education is one volume of a six volume curriculum for the secondary level, designed to provide a systematic, group-oriented approach to decision-making in areas crucial to adolescent development: drug (substance) use and abuse, sexuality and social relationships, juvenile law, work and people and government.…

  4. The Limits to Adaptation: A Systems Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Felgenhauer, T. N.

    2013-12-01

    The ability to adapt to climate change is delineated by capacity thresholds, after which climate damages begin to overwhelm the adaptation response. Such thresholds depend upon physical properties (natural processes and engineering parameters), resource constraints (expressed through market prices), and societal preferences (from prices as well as cultural norms). Exceedance of adaptation capacity will require substitution either with other pre-existing policy responses or with new adaptation responses that have yet to be developed and tested. Previous modeling research shows that capacity limited adaptation will play a policy-significant role in future climate change decision-making. The aim of this study is to describe different types of adaptation response and climate damage systems and postulate how these systems might behave when the limits to adaptation are reached. The hypothesis is that this behavior will be governed by the characteristics and level of the adaptation limit, the shape of the damage curve in that specific damage area, and the availability of alternative adaptation responses once the threshold is passed, whether it is more of the old technology, a new response type, or a transformation of the climate damage and response system itself.

  5. Development and initial evaluation of a treatment decision dashboard.

    PubMed

    Dolan, James G; Veazie, Peter J; Russ, Ann J

    2013-04-21

    For many healthcare decisions, multiple alternatives are available with different combinations of advantages and disadvantages across several important dimensions. The complexity of current healthcare decisions thus presents a significant barrier to informed decision making, a key element of patient-centered care.Interactive decision dashboards were developed to facilitate decision making in Management, a field marked by similarly complicated choices. These dashboards utilize data visualization techniques to reduce the cognitive effort needed to evaluate decision alternatives and a non-linear flow of information that enables users to review information in a self-directed fashion. Theoretically, both of these features should facilitate informed decision making by increasing user engagement with and understanding of the decision at hand. We sought to determine if the interactive decision dashboard format can be successfully adapted to create a clinically realistic prototype patient decision aid suitable for further evaluation and refinement. We created a computerized, interactive clinical decision dashboard and performed a pilot test of its clinical feasibility and acceptability using a multi-method analysis. The dashboard summarized information about the effectiveness, risks of side effects and drug-drug interactions, out-of-pocket costs, and ease of use of nine analgesic treatment options for knee osteoarthritis. Outcome evaluations included observations of how study participants utilized the dashboard, questionnaires to assess usability, acceptability, and decisional conflict, and an open-ended qualitative analysis. The study sample consisted of 25 volunteers - 7 men and 18 women - with an average age of 51 years. The mean time spent interacting with the dashboard was 4.6 minutes. Mean evaluation scores on scales ranging from 1 (low) to 7 (high) were: mechanical ease of use 6.1, cognitive ease of use 6.2, emotional difficulty 2.7, decision-aiding effectiveness 5

  6. The Brain Adapts to Dishonesty

    PubMed Central

    Garrett, Neil; Lazzaro, Stephanie C.; Ariely, Dan; Sharot, Tali

    2016-01-01

    Dishonesty is an integral part of our social world, influencing domains ranging from finance and politics to personal relationships. Anecdotally, digressions from a moral code are often described as a series of small breaches that grow over time. Here, we provide empirical evidence for a gradual escalation of self-serving dishonesty and reveal a neural mechanism supporting it. Behaviorally, we show that the extent to which participants engage in self-serving dishonesty increases with repetition. Using fMRI we show that signal reduction in the amygdala is sensitive to the history of dishonest behavior, consistent with adaptation. Critically, the extent of amygdala BOLD reduction to dishonesty on a present decision relative to the last, predicts the magnitude of escalation of self-serving dishonesty on the next decision. The findings uncover a biological mechanism that supports a “slippery slope”: what begins as small acts of dishonesty can escalate into larger instances. PMID:27775721

  7. The brain adapts to dishonesty.

    PubMed

    Garrett, Neil; Lazzaro, Stephanie C; Ariely, Dan; Sharot, Tali

    2016-12-01

    Dishonesty is an integral part of our social world, influencing domains ranging from finance and politics to personal relationships. Anecdotally, digressions from a moral code are often described as a series of small breaches that grow over time. Here we provide empirical evidence for a gradual escalation of self-serving dishonesty and reveal a neural mechanism supporting it. Behaviorally, we show that the extent to which participants engage in self-serving dishonesty increases with repetition. Using functional MRI, we show that signal reduction in the amygdala is sensitive to the history of dishonest behavior, consistent with adaptation. Critically, the extent of reduced amygdala sensitivity to dishonesty on a present decision relative to the previous one predicts the magnitude of escalation of self-serving dishonesty on the next decision. The findings uncover a biological mechanism that supports a 'slippery slope': what begins as small acts of dishonesty can escalate into larger transgressions.

  8. Decision Points in Cataloging.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bright, Franklyn F.

    Libraries are frequently faced with policy decisions which can affect the quality and cost of library services for years to come. This point can be illustrated by citing examples of decisions made at the University of Wisconsin Library in the areas of: (1) conforming to national cataloging standards; (2) producing catalog cards in-house; and (3)…

  9. Designing for Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jonassen, David H.

    2012-01-01

    Decision making is the most common kind of problem solving. It is also an important component skill in other more ill-structured and complex kinds of problem solving, including policy problems and design problems. There are different kinds of decisions, including choices, acceptances, evaluations, and constructions. After describing the centrality…

  10. Consumer Decisions. Student Manual.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Florida State Dept. of Education, Tallahassee. Div. of Vocational Education.

    This student manual covers five areas relating to consumer decisions. Titles of the five sections are Consumer Law, Consumer Decision Making, Buying a Car, Convenience Foods, and Books for Preschool Children. Each section may contain some or all of these materials: list of objectives, informative sections, questions on the information and answers,…

  11. Improving Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mehallis, Mantha, Ed.

    1981-01-01

    This collection of essays focuses on the importance of accurate and timely information for effective decision making. First, Ivan Lach considers the proliferation of statewide planning and policy formation and discusses problems with and ways to improve statewide research. Next, Cheryl Opacinch focuses on decision making for federal postsecondary…

  12. Consumer Decisions. Student Manual.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Florida State Dept. of Education, Tallahassee. Div. of Vocational Education.

    This student manual covers five areas relating to consumer decisions. Titles of the five sections are Consumer Law, Consumer Decision Making, Buying a Car, Convenience Foods, and Books for Preschool Children. Each section may contain some or all of these materials: list of objectives, informative sections, questions on the information and answers,…

  13. Understanding The Lau Decision.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gounaris, Marilyn

    In a question and answer format, this booklet describes the Lau v. Nichols decision in which the Supreme Court ruled that the San Francisco Unified School District was guilty of discrimination because non-English speaking students were not given special language instruction. The booklet presents the basis for the Lau decision, describing a…

  14. Participative Decision-Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindelow, John; And Others

    Chapter 6 in a volume on school leadership, this chapter makes a case for the use of participative decision-making (PDM) at the school-site level, outlines guidelines for its implementation, and describes the experiences of some schools with PDM systems. It begins by citing research indicating the advantages of PDM, including better decisions,…

  15. Repeated Causal Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Bjorn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in…

  16. Quantitative Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baldwin, Grover H.

    The use of quantitative decision making tools provides the decision maker with a range of alternatives among which to decide, permits acceptance and use of the optimal solution, and decreases risk. Training line administrators in the use of these tools can help school business officials obtain reliable information upon which to base district…

  17. Decision Making and Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Reyna, Valerie F.; Nelson, Wendy L.; Han, Paul K.; Pignone, Michael P.

    2014-01-01

    We review decision-making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making, in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cognition, emotion, and their interaction are described, including classical psychophysical approaches, dual-process approaches that focus on conflicts between emotion versus cognition (or reason), and modern integrative approaches such as fuzzy-trace theory. In contrast to the earlier emphasis on rote use of numerical detail, modern approaches emphasize understanding the bottom-line gist of options (which encompasses emotion and other influences on meaning) and retrieving relevant social and moral values to apply to those gist representations. Finally, research on interventions to support better decision making in clinical settings is reviewed, drawing out implications for future research on decision making and cancer. PMID:25730718

  18. Improving Educational Administrative Decisions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wolfe, A. E.

    This paper discusses the financial crisis facing public education in the United States today and argues that the most effective response to this crisis is to improve the decision-making skills of educational administrators. Based on a review of the literature on administrative decision-making and organizational change, the author examines several…

  19. Designing for Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jonassen, David H.

    2012-01-01

    Decision making is the most common kind of problem solving. It is also an important component skill in other more ill-structured and complex kinds of problem solving, including policy problems and design problems. There are different kinds of decisions, including choices, acceptances, evaluations, and constructions. After describing the centrality…

  20. [Group communication and decision-making strategies].

    PubMed

    García-Retamero, Rocío; Takezawa, Masanori; Gigerenzer, Gerd

    2008-11-01

    In daily life, people frequently make inferences about current and future states of the world. Most of these inferences are not made individually, but by exchanging information about which strategies could be used with other people. In an experiment, we analyzed whether exchanging information socially increased the probability of selecting the most adaptive strategy. In our experiment, take-the-best (TTB; Gigerenzer & Goldstein, 1996), a simple heuristic that employs one-reason decision making, achieved the highest payoff. Results showed that the fit of TTB increased substantially across trial blocks when participants were allowed to exchange information with other group members. In contrast, when participants made inferences individually, they did not select the most adaptive strategy even after seven trial blocks. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that group communication increases the likelihood that participants select the most adaptive strategy for making inferences.

  1. Development and Standardization of the Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale: Application of Item Response Theory to the Assessment of Adaptive Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tassé, Marc J.; Schalock, Robert L.; Thissen, David; Balboni, Giulia; Bersani, Henry, Jr.; Borthwick-Duffy, Sharon A.; Spreat, Scott; Widaman, Keith F.; Zhang, Dalun; Navas, Patricia

    2016-01-01

    The Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale (DABS) was developed using item response theory (IRT) methods and was constructed to provide the most precise and valid adaptive behavior information at or near the cutoff point of making a decision regarding a diagnosis of intellectual disability. The DABS initial item pool consisted of 260 items. Using IRT…

  2. Development and Standardization of the Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale: Application of Item Response Theory to the Assessment of Adaptive Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tassé, Marc J.; Schalock, Robert L.; Thissen, David; Balboni, Giulia; Bersani, Henry, Jr.; Borthwick-Duffy, Sharon A.; Spreat, Scott; Widaman, Keith F.; Zhang, Dalun; Navas, Patricia

    2016-01-01

    The Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale (DABS) was developed using item response theory (IRT) methods and was constructed to provide the most precise and valid adaptive behavior information at or near the cutoff point of making a decision regarding a diagnosis of intellectual disability. The DABS initial item pool consisted of 260 items. Using IRT…

  3. Language Adaptive LVCSR Through Polyphone Decision Tree Specialization

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2000-08-01

    With the distribution of speech technology products all over the Ch- Mandarin CH 8529 112 219K 26.7 world, the fast and efficient portability to new...target languages be- Croatian CR 3374 72 89K 12.0 comes a practical concern. In this paper we explore the relative ef- English (WSJ) EN 7137 83 129K...Table 1: GlobalPhone database used for experiments1. Introduction With the distribution of speech technology products all over idea was first proposed by

  4. Adaptive Design of a Decision Support System for Compromise Assessment.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-03-01

    for a reasonable amount of time to pro - vide continuity to the system. This lack of continuity was a con - tributing factor to the current problem of...compromise assess- ments. The only requirements specified by SAC are that the following general topics be discussed: * Currency /accuracy • Relationship to...be presented to SAC. 9. .* k, - .".4. 4. A. Ill. Methodology The following four objectives (as discussed in Chapter I) pro - vide a course of action

  5. Differential evolution for many-particle adaptive quantum metrology.

    PubMed

    Lovett, Neil B; Crosnier, Cécile; Perarnau-Llobet, Martí; Sanders, Barry C

    2013-05-31

    We devise powerful algorithms based on differential evolution for adaptive many-particle quantum metrology. Our new approach delivers adaptive quantum metrology policies for feedback control that are orders-of-magnitude more efficient and surpass the few-dozen-particle limitation arising in methods based on particle-swarm optimization. We apply our method to the binary-decision-tree model for quantum-enhanced phase estimation as well as to a new problem: a decision tree for adaptive estimation of the unknown bias of a quantum coin in a quantum walk and show how this latter case can be realized experimentally.

  6. Fast Image Texture Classification Using Decision Trees

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, David R.

    2011-01-01

    Texture analysis would permit improved autonomous, onboard science data interpretation for adaptive navigation, sampling, and downlink decisions. These analyses would assist with terrain analysis and instrument placement in both macroscopic and microscopic image data products. Unfortunately, most state-of-the-art texture analysis demands computationally expensive convolutions of filters involving many floating-point operations. This makes them infeasible for radiation- hardened computers and spaceflight hardware. A new method approximates traditional texture classification of each image pixel with a fast decision-tree classifier. The classifier uses image features derived from simple filtering operations involving integer arithmetic. The texture analysis method is therefore amenable to implementation on FPGA (field-programmable gate array) hardware. Image features based on the "integral image" transform produce descriptive and efficient texture descriptors. Training the decision tree on a set of training data yields a classification scheme that produces reasonable approximations of optimal "texton" analysis at a fraction of the computational cost. A decision-tree learning algorithm employing the traditional k-means criterion of inter-cluster variance is used to learn tree structure from training data. The result is an efficient and accurate summary of surface morphology in images. This work is an evolutionary advance that unites several previous algorithms (k-means clustering, integral images, decision trees) and applies them to a new problem domain (morphology analysis for autonomous science during remote exploration). Advantages include order-of-magnitude improvements in runtime, feasibility for FPGA hardware, and significant improvements in texture classification accuracy.

  7. Collective decision making in bacterial viruses.

    PubMed

    Weitz, Joshua S; Mileyko, Yuriy; Joh, Richard I; Voit, Eberhard O

    2008-09-15

    For many bacterial viruses, the choice of whether to kill host cells or enter a latent state depends on the multiplicity of coinfection. Here, we present a mathematical theory of how bacterial viruses can make collective decisions concerning the fate of infected cells. We base our theory on mechanistic models of gene regulatory dynamics. Unlike most previous work, we treat the copy number of viral genes as variable. Increasing the viral copy number increases the rate of transcription of viral mRNAs. When viral regulation of cell fate includes nonlinear feedback loops, very small changes in transcriptional rates can lead to dramatic changes in steady-state gene expression. Hence, we prove that deterministic decisions can be reached, e.g., lysis or latency, depending on the cellular multiplicity of infection within a broad class of gene regulatory models of viral decision-making. Comparisons of a parameterized version of the model with molecular studies of the decision structure in the temperate bacteriophage lambda are consistent with our conclusions. Because the model is general, it suggests that bacterial viruses can respond adaptively to changes in population dynamics, and that features of collective decision-making in viruses are evolvable life history traits.

  8. Deciding about fast and slow decisions.

    PubMed

    Croskerry, Pat; Petrie, David A; Reilly, James B; Tait, Gordon

    2014-02-01

    Two reports in this issue address the important topic of clinical decision making. Dual process theory has emerged as the dominant model for understanding the complex processes that underlie human decision making. This theory distinguishes between the reflexive, autonomous processes that characterize intuitive decision making and the deliberate reasoning of an analytical approach. In this commentary, the authors address the polarization of viewpoints that has developed around the relative merits of the two systems. Although intuitive processes are typically fast and analytical processes slow, speed alone does not distinguish them. In any event, the majority of decisions in clinical medicine are not dependent on very short response times. What does appear relevant to diagnostic ease and accuracy is the degree to which the symptoms of the disease being diagnosed are characteristic ones. There are also concerns around some methodological issues related to research design in this area of enquiry. Reductionist approaches that attempt to isolate dependent variables may create such artificial experimental conditions that both external and ecological validity are sacrificed. Clinical decision making is a complex process with many independent (and interdependent) variables that need to be separated out in a discrete fashion and then reflected on in real time to preserve the fidelity of clinical practice. With these caveats in mind, the authors believe that research in this area should promote a better understanding of clinical practice and teaching by focusing less on the deficiencies of intuitive and analytical systems and more on their adaptive strengths.

  9. Strategic Decision Making and Group Decision Support Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGrath, Michael Robert

    1986-01-01

    Institutional strategic decisions require the participation of every individual with a significant stake in the solution, and group decision support systems are being developed to respond to the political and consensual problems of collective decision-making. (MSE)

  10. Rapid Decisions From Experience

    PubMed Central

    Zeigenfuse, Matthew D.; Pleskac, Timothy J.; Liu, Taosheng

    2014-01-01

    In many everyday decisions, people quickly integrate noisy samples of information to form a preference among alternatives that offer uncertain rewards. Here, we investigated this decision process using the Flash Gambling Task (FGT), in which participants made a series of choices between a certain payoff and an uncertain alternative that produced a normal distribution of payoffs. For each choice, participants experienced the distribution of payoffs via rapid samples updated every 50 ms. We show that people can make these rapid decisions from experience and that the decision process is consistent with a sequential sampling process. Results also reveal a dissociation between these preferential decisions and equivalent perceptual decisions where participants had to determine which alternatives contained more dots on average. To account for this dissociation, we developed a sequential sampling rank-dependent utility model, which showed that participants in the FGT attended more to larger potential payoffs than participants in the perceptual task despite being given equivalent information. We discuss the implications of these findings in terms of computational models of preferential choice and a more complete understanding of experience-based decision making. PMID:24549141

  11. Decision Neuroscience: Neuroeconomics

    PubMed Central

    Smith, David V.; Huettel, Scott A.

    2012-01-01

    Few aspects of human cognition are more personal than the choices we make. Our decisions – from the mundane to the impossibly complex – continually shape the courses of our lives. In recent years, researchers have applied the tools of neuroscience to understand the mechanisms that underlie decision making, as part of the new discipline of decision neuroscience. A primary goal of this emerging field has been to identify the processes that underlie specific decision variables, including the value of rewards, the uncertainty associated with particular outcomes, and the consequences of social interactions. Recent work suggests potential neural substrates that integrate these variables, potentially reflecting a common neural currency for value, to facilitate value comparisons. Despite the successes of decision neuroscience research for elucidating brain mechanisms, significant challenges remain. These include building new conceptual frameworks for decision making, integrating research findings across disparate techniques and species, and extending results from neuroscience to shape economic theory. To overcome these challenges, future research will likely focus on interpersonal variability in decision making, with the eventual goal of creating biologically plausible models for individual choice. PMID:22754602

  12. Emotion and decision making.

    PubMed

    Lerner, Jennifer S; Li, Ye; Valdesolo, Piercarlo; Kassam, Karim S

    2015-01-03

    A revolution in the science of emotion has emerged in recent decades, with the potential to create a paradigm shift in decision theories. The research reveals that emotions constitute potent, pervasive, predictable, sometimes harmful and sometimes beneficial drivers of decision making. Across different domains, important regularities appear in the mechanisms through which emotions influence judgments and choices. We organize and analyze what has been learned from the past 35 years of work on emotion and decision making. In so doing, we propose the emotion-imbued choice model, which accounts for inputs from traditional rational choice theory and from newer emotion research, synthesizing scientific models.

  13. Quantum decision tree classifier

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Songfeng; Braunstein, Samuel L.

    2013-11-01

    We study the quantum version of a decision tree classifier to fill the gap between quantum computation and machine learning. The quantum entropy impurity criterion which is used to determine which node should be split is presented in the paper. By using the quantum fidelity measure between two quantum states, we cluster the training data into subclasses so that the quantum decision tree can manipulate quantum states. We also propose algorithms constructing the quantum decision tree and searching for a target class over the tree for a new quantum object.

  14. Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.

    2014-11-01

    Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

  15. Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world.

    PubMed

    Stafford Smith, Mark; Horrocks, Lisa; Harvey, Alex; Hamilton, Clive

    2011-01-13

    With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4°C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4°C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2°C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper, we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to break down some barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making. The approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly.

  16. DARK ADAPTATION IN DINEUTES

    PubMed Central

    Clark, Leonard B.

    1938-01-01

    The level of dark adaptation of the whirligig beetle can be measured in terms of the threshold intensity calling forth a response. The course of dark adaptation was determined at levels of light adaptation of 6.5, 91.6, and 6100 foot-candles. All data can be fitted by the same curve. This indicates that dark adaptation follows parts of the same course irrespective of the level of light adaptation. The intensity of the adapting light determines the level at which dark adaptation will begin. The relation between log aI0 (instantaneous threshold) and log of adapting light intensity is linear over the range studied. PMID:19873056

  17. Group decision making with the analytic hierarchy process in benefit-risk assessment: a tutorial.

    PubMed

    Hummel, J Marjan; Bridges, John F P; IJzerman, Maarten J

    2014-01-01

    The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria. This tutorial illustrates the procedural steps of the AHP in supporting group decision making about new healthcare technology, including (1) identifying the decision goal, decision criteria, and alternative healthcare technologies to compare, (2) structuring the decision criteria, (3) judging the value of the alternative technologies on each decision criterion, (4) judging the importance of the decision criteria, (5) calculating group judgments, (6) analyzing the inconsistency in judgments, (7) calculating the overall value of the technologies, and (8) conducting sensitivity analyses. The AHP is illustrated via a hypothetical example, adapted from an empirical AHP analysis on the benefits and risks of tissue regeneration to repair small cartilage lesions in the knee.

  18. Adaptive Image Denoising by Mixture Adaptation.

    PubMed

    Luo, Enming; Chan, Stanley H; Nguyen, Truong Q

    2016-10-01

    We propose an adaptive learning procedure to learn patch-based image priors for image denoising. The new algorithm, called the expectation-maximization (EM) adaptation, takes a generic prior learned from a generic external database and adapts it to the noisy image to generate a specific prior. Different from existing methods that combine internal and external statistics in ad hoc ways, the proposed algorithm is rigorously derived from a Bayesian hyper-prior perspective. There are two contributions of this paper. First, we provide full derivation of the EM adaptation algorithm and demonstrate methods to improve the computational complexity. Second, in the absence of the latent clean image, we show how EM adaptation can be modified based on pre-filtering. The experimental results show that the proposed adaptation algorithm yields consistently better denoising results than the one without adaptation and is superior to several state-of-the-art algorithms.

  19. Adaptive Image Denoising by Mixture Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Enming; Chan, Stanley H.; Nguyen, Truong Q.

    2016-10-01

    We propose an adaptive learning procedure to learn patch-based image priors for image denoising. The new algorithm, called the Expectation-Maximization (EM) adaptation, takes a generic prior learned from a generic external database and adapts it to the noisy image to generate a specific prior. Different from existing methods that combine internal and external statistics in ad-hoc ways, the proposed algorithm is rigorously derived from a Bayesian hyper-prior perspective. There are two contributions of this paper: First, we provide full derivation of the EM adaptation algorithm and demonstrate methods to improve the computational complexity. Second, in the absence of the latent clean image, we show how EM adaptation can be modified based on pre-filtering. Experimental results show that the proposed adaptation algorithm yields consistently better denoising results than the one without adaptation and is superior to several state-of-the-art algorithms.

  20. Soft Decision Analyzer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lansdowne, Chatwin; Steele, Glen; Zucha, Joan; Schlesinger, Adam

    2013-01-01

    We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

  1. Organizational Decision Making

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1975-08-01

    decision theory to specific medical diagnostic or treatment problems. Giaugue and Peebles (1974) discuss analysis of the treatment of strep throat and...for Streptococcal Sore Throat and Rheumatic Fever", Technical Report, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, Calif., 93940 7- Giaugue, W.C: "A Utility...Sore Throat ang Rheumatic £ever - a Decision THeoLelic 22£roa>cH, Uoctoral THeslsJ Barvard~ Business 5cKool7 Boston, Bass., 1972. 3. Raiffa, H

  2. Fast autodidactic adaptive equalization algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hilal, Katia

    Autodidactic equalization by adaptive filtering is addressed in a mobile radio communication context. A general method, using an adaptive stochastic gradient Bussgang type algorithm, to deduce two low cost computation algorithms is given: one equivalent to the initial algorithm and the other having improved convergence properties thanks to a block criteria minimization. Two start algorithms are reworked: the Godard algorithm and the decision controlled algorithm. Using a normalization procedure, and block normalization, the performances are improved, and their common points are evaluated. These common points are used to propose an algorithm retaining the advantages of the two initial algorithms. This thus inherits the robustness of the Godard algorithm and the precision and phase correction of the decision control algorithm. The work is completed by a study of the stable states of Bussgang type algorithms and of the stability of the Godard algorithms, initial and normalized. The simulation of these algorithms, carried out in a mobile radio communications context, and under severe conditions on the propagation channel, gave a 75% reduction in the number of samples required for the processing in relation with the initial algorithms. The improvement of the residual error was of a much lower return. These performances are close to making possible the use of autodidactic equalization in the mobile radio system.

  3. Selection of invasive wild pig countermeasures using multicriteria decision analysis.

    PubMed

    Brondum, Matthew C; Collier, Zachary A; Luke, Christopher S; Goatcher, Buddy L; Linkov, Igor

    2017-01-01

    Wild pigs are a widespread invasive species that pose significant environmental and social risks. A number of wild pig eradication and control measures exist, but many eradication campaigns are ultimately unsuccessful. Decision making regarding how to design and execute an eradication plan is difficult because of multiple costs and benefits spanning various decision criteria that are associated with different eradication and control countermeasures. Moreover, multiple stakeholders are often involved with differing and sometimes competing objectives, and wild pigs are adaptive adversaries, meaning that the ideal countermeasure may change over time. In this paper, we propose the use of formal decision analytic tools which can structure decision problems into a set of relevant criteria, countermeasures, and stakeholder preferences to facilitate the evaluation of tradeoffs. We operationalize this method in a simple Excel-based decision tool and conclude with a path forward regarding how to successfully implement such tools for effective wild pig control.

  4. Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marcot, Bruce G.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Runge, Michael C.; Thompson, Frank R.; McNulty, Steven; Cleaves, David; Tomosy, Monica; Fisher, Larry A.; Andrew, Bliss

    2012-01-01

    Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM). SDM entails four stages: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring the preferred alternative with adaptive management feedbacks. We list a wide array of models, techniques, and tools available for each stage, and provide three case studies of their selected use in National Forest land management and project plans. Successful use of SDM involves participation by decision-makers, analysts, scientists, and stakeholders. We suggest specific areas for training and instituting SDM to foster transparency, rigor, clarity, and inclusiveness in formal decision processes regarding management of national forests.

  5. Working memory capacity as controlled attention in tactical decision making.

    PubMed

    Furley, Philip A; Memmert, Daniel

    2012-06-01

    The controlled attention theory of working memory capacity (WMC, Engle 2002) suggests that WMC represents a domain free limitation in the ability to control attention and is predictive of an individual's capability of staying focused, avoiding distraction and impulsive errors. In the present paper we test the predictive power of WMC in computer-based sport decision-making tasks. Experiment 1 demonstrated that high-WMC athletes were better able at focusing their attention on tactical decision making while blocking out irrelevant auditory distraction. Experiment 2 showed that high-WMC athletes were more successful at adapting their tactical decision making according to the situation instead of relying on prepotent inappropriate decisions. The present results provide additional but also unique support for the controlled attention theory of WMC by demonstrating that WMC is predictive of controlling attention in complex settings among different modalities and highlight the importance of working memory in tactical decision making.

  6. Improving decision making in crisis.

    PubMed

    Higgins, Guy; Freedman, Jennifer

    2013-01-01

    The most critical activity during emergencies or crises is making decisions about what to do next. This paper provides insights into the challenges that people face in making decisions at any time, but particularly during emergencies and crises. It also introduces the reader to the concept of different sense-making/decision-making domains, the human behaviours that can adversely affect decision making - decision derailers - and ways in which emergency responders can leverage this knowledge to make better decisions. While the literature on decision making is extensive, this paper is focused on those aspects that apply particularly to decision making in emergencies or times of crisis.

  7. Q-Learning: A Data Analysis Method for Constructing Adaptive Interventions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nahum-Shani, Inbal; Qian, Min; Almirall, Daniel; Pelham, William E.; Gnagy, Beth; Fabiano, Gregory A.; Waxmonsky, James G.; Yu, Jihnhee; Murphy, Susan A.

    2012-01-01

    Increasing interest in individualizing and adapting intervention services over time has led to the development of adaptive interventions. Adaptive interventions operationalize the individualization of a sequence of intervention options over time via the use of decision rules that input participant information and output intervention…

  8. Comparison of Item Targeting Strategies for Pass/Fail Computer Adaptive Tests.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bergstrom, Betty A.; Gershon, Richard

    The most useful method of item selection for making pass-fail decisions with a Computerized Adaptive Test (CAT) was studied. Medical technology students (n=86) took a computer adaptive test in which items were targeted to the ability of the examinee. The adaptive algorithm that selected items and estimated person measures used the Rasch model and…

  9. A Universal Decision Support System. Addressing the Decision-Making Needs of Patients, Families, and Clinicians in the Setting of Critical Illness

    PubMed Central

    White, Douglas B.; Abernethy, Amy P.

    2014-01-01

    In the setting of a complex critical illness, preference-sensitive decision making—choosing between two or more reasonable treatment options—can be difficult for patients, families, and clinicians alike. A common challenge to making high-quality decisions in this setting is a lack of critical information access and sharing among participants. Decision aids—brochures, web applications, and videos—are a major focus of current research because mounting evidence suggests they can improve decision-making quality and enhance collaborative shared decision making. However, many decision aids have important limitations, including a relatively narrow capacity for personalization, an inability to gather and generate clinical data, a focus on only a single disease or treatment, and high developmental costs. To address these issues and to help guide future research, we propose a model of “universal” electronic decision support that can be easily adapted by clinicians and patients/families for whatever decision is at hand. In this scalable web-based platform, a general shared decision-making core structure would accommodate simple, interchangeable disease and treatment information modules. The format and content of the system could be adapted to decisional participants’ unique characteristics, abilities, and needs. Universal decision support can better standardize a decisional approach and also allow a unique degree of personalization within a framework of shared decision making. We also discuss potential criticisms of this approach as well as strategies that can overcome them in a critical illness setting. PMID:25019639

  10. A universal decision support system. Addressing the decision-making needs of patients, families, and clinicians in the setting of critical illness.

    PubMed

    Cox, Christopher E; White, Douglas B; Abernethy, Amy P

    2014-08-15

    In the setting of a complex critical illness, preference-sensitive decision making-choosing between two or more reasonable treatment options-can be difficult for patients, families, and clinicians alike. A common challenge to making high-quality decisions in this setting is a lack of critical information access and sharing among participants. Decision aids-brochures, web applications, and videos-are a major focus of current research because mounting evidence suggests they can improve decision-making quality and enhance collaborative shared decision making. However, many decision aids have important limitations, including a relatively narrow capacity for personalization, an inability to gather and generate clinical data, a focus on only a single disease or treatment, and high developmental costs. To address these issues and to help guide future research, we propose a model of "universal" electronic decision support that can be easily adapted by clinicians and patients/families for whatever decision is at hand. In this scalable web-based platform, a general shared decision-making core structure would accommodate simple, interchangeable disease and treatment information modules. The format and content of the system could be adapted to decisional participants' unique characteristics, abilities, and needs. Universal decision support can better standardize a decisional approach and also allow a unique degree of personalization within a framework of shared decision making. We also discuss potential criticisms of this approach as well as strategies that can overcome them in a critical illness setting.

  11. Adaptive Management for a Turbulent Future

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, Craig R.; Fontaine, Joseph J.; Pope, Kevin L.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

    2011-01-01

    The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate

  12. Adaptive management for a turbulent future

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, C.R.; Fontaine, J.J.; Pope, K.L.; Garmestani, A.S.

    2011-01-01

    The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate

  13. Adapting inland fisheries management to a changing climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Paukert, Craig; Glazer, Bob A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Irwin, Brian J.; Jacobson, Peter C.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Whitney, James E.; Lynch, Abigail J.

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource decision makers are challenged to adapt management to a changing climate while balancing short-term management goals with long-term changes in aquatic systems. Adaptation will require developing resilient ecosystems and resilient management systems. Decision makers already have tools to develop or ensure resilient aquatic systems and fisheries such as managing harvest and riparian zones. Because fisheries management often interacts with multiple stakeholders, adaptation strategies involving fisheries managers and other partners focused on land use, policy, and human systems, coupled with long-term monitoring, are necessary for resilient systems. We show how agencies and organizations are adapting to a changing climate in Minnesota and Ontario lakes and Montana streams. We also present how the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission created a management structure to develop adaptation strategies. These examples demonstrate how organizations and agencies can cope with climate change effects on fishes and fisheries through creating resilient management and ecological systems.

  14. Translating climate data for business decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinberg, N.

    2015-12-01

    Businesses are bound to play an integral role in global and local climate change adaptation efforts, and integrating climate science into business decision-making can help protect companies' bottom-line and the communities which they depend upon. Yet many companies do not have good means to measure and manage climate risks. There are inherent limiting factors to incorporating climate data into existing operations and sourcing strategies. Spatial and temporal incongruities between climate and business models can make integration cumbersome. Even when such incongruities are resolved, raw climate data must undergo multiple transformations until the data is deemed actionable or otherwise translatable in dollar terms. However, the predictability of future impacts is advancing along with the use of second-order variables such as Cooling Degree Days and Water-Limited Crop productivity, helping business managers make better decisions about future energy and water demand requirements under the prospect of rising temperatures and more variable rainfall. This presentation will discuss the methods and opportunities for transforming raw climate data into business metrics. Results for the 2015 Corporate Adaptation Survey, led by Four Twenty Seven and in partnership with Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, will also be presented to illustrate existing gaps between climate science and its application in the business context.

  15. Decision-Scaling: A Decision Framework for DoD Climate Risk Assessment and Adaptation Planning

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-08-01

    adequately frame the future water supply risks facing an installation and the possible actions that can be taken to manage those risks. Communication ... Management Plan. For the calibration, demands for users within local communities were estimated from USGS population data. No demand data was...their water supply from the Arkansas River. 98 Case Study 4: California Central Valley System Background and Problem Framing Managing water

  16. Adaptation illustrations: Chapter 4

    Treesearch

    Maria Janowiak; Patricia Butler; Chris Swanston; Matt St. Pierre; Linda. Parker

    2012-01-01

    In this chapter, we demonstrate how the Adaptation Workbook (Chapter 3) can be used with the Adaptation Strategies and Approaches (Chapter 2) to develop adaptation tactics for two real-world management issues. The two illustrations in this chapter are intended to provide helpful tips to managers completing the Adaptation Workbook, as well as to show how the anticipated...

  17. Climate adaptation policy, science and practice - Lessons for communication

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolf, Johanna

    2017-04-01

    In climate change adaptation research, policy, and practice, institutional culture produces distinct conceptualizations of adaptation, which in turn affect how adaptation work is undertaken. This study examines institutional culture as the four domains of norms, values, knowledge, and beliefs that are held by adaptation scientists, policy- and decision-makers, and practitioners in Western Canada. Based on 31 semi-structured interviews, this article traces the ways in which these four domains interact, intersect, converge, and diverge among scientists, policy- and decision-makers, and practitioners. By exploring the knowledge, backgrounds, goals, approaches, assumptions, and behaviours of people working in adaptation, these interviews map the ways in which institutional culture shapes adaptation work being carried out by local, provincial, and federal governments, nongovernmental organizations, and an international community of scientists (including Canadian scientists). Findings suggest that institutional culture both limits and enables adaptation actions for these actors in important ways, significantly influencing how climate change adaptation is being planned for, and carried out on the ground. As a result, this paper asserts that there is an urgent need to better understand the role that institutional culture plays in order to advance climate change adaptation, both now and in the future. Important lessons for communicating about climate science, climate impacts and adaptation will be presented.

  18. Operator adaptation to changes in system reliability under adaptable automation.

    PubMed

    Chavaillaz, Alain; Sauer, Juergen

    2016-11-25

    This experiment examined how operators coped with a change in system reliability between training and testing. Forty participants were trained for 3 h on a complex process control simulation modelling six levels of automation (LOA). In training, participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (50%). The impact of training experience on operator behaviour was examined during a 2.5 h testing session, in which participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (60%). The results showed that most operators did not often switch between LOA. Most chose an LOA that relieved them of most tasks but maintained their decision authority. Training experience did not have a strong impact on the outcome measures (e.g. performance, complacency). Low system reliability led to decreased performance and self-confidence. Furthermore, complacency was observed under high system reliability. Overall, the findings suggest benefits of adaptable automation because it accommodates different operator preferences for LOA. Practitioner Summary: The present research shows that operators can adapt to changes in system reliability between training and testing sessions. Furthermore, it provides evidence that each operator has his/her preferred automation level. Since this preference varies strongly between operators, adaptable automation seems to be suitable to accommodate these large differences.

  19. Decisions and desire.

    PubMed

    Morse, Gardiner

    2006-01-01

    When we make decisions, we're not always in charge. One moment we hotheadedly let our emotions get the better of us; the next, we're paralyzed by uncertainty. Then we'll pull a brilliant decision out of thin air--and wonder how we did it. Though we may have no idea how decision making happens, neuroscientists peering deep into our brains are beginning to get the picture. What they're finding may not be what you want to hear, but it's worth listening. We have dog brains, basically, with human cortexes stuck on top. By watching the brain in action as it deliberates and decides, neuroscientists are finding that not a second goes by that our animal brains aren't conferring with our modern cortexes to influence their choices. Scientists have discovered, for example, that the "reward" circuits in the brain that activate in response to cocaine, chocolate, sex, and music also find pleasure in the mere anticipation of making money--or getting revenge. And the "aversion" circuits that react to the threat of physical pain also respond with disgust when we feel cheated by a partner. In this article, HBR senior editor Gardiner Morse describes the experiments that illuminate the aggressive participation of our emotion-driven animal brains in decision making. This research also shows that our emotional brains needn't always operate beneath our radar. While our dog brains sometimes hijack our higher cognitive functions to drive bad, or at least illogical, decisions, they play an important part in rational decision making as well. The more we understand about how we make decisions, the better we can manage them.

  20. Climate adaptation strategy for natural resources released

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2013-04-01

    The National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy, released on 26 March by the Obama administration, calls for a series of measures to help public and private decision makers better address the effects of climate change on living natural resources. The measures include conserving habitat to support healthy fish, wildlife, and plant populations and ecosystem functions; managing species and habitats to protect ecosystem functions and provide sustainable commercial, subsistence, recreational, and cultural use; increasing knowledge and information about effects on and responses of fish, wildlife, and plants; and reducing nonclimate stressors to help fish, wildlife, plants, and ecosystems adapt.

  1. Lazy decision trees

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman, J.H.; Yun, Yeogirl; Kohavi, R.

    1996-12-31

    Lazy learning algorithms, exemplified by nearest-neighbor algorithms, do not induce a concise hypothesis from a given training set; the inductive process is delayed until a test instance is given. Algorithms for constructing decision trees, such as C4.5, ID3, and CART create a single {open_quotes}best{close_quotes} decision tree during the training phase, and this tree is then used to classify test instances. The tests at the nodes of the constructed tree are good on average, but there may be better tests for classifying a specific instance. We propose a lazy decision tree algorithm-LazyDT-that conceptually constructs the {open_quotes}best{close_quote} decision tree for each test instance. In practice, only a path needs to be constructed, and a caching scheme makes the algorithm fast. The algorithm is robust with respect to missing values without resorting to the complicated methods usually seen in induction of decision trees. Experiments on real and artificial problems are presented.

  2. Habituation of visual adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Dong, Xue; Gao, Yi; Lv, Lili; Bao, Min

    2016-01-01

    Our sensory system adjusts its function driven by both shorter-term (e.g. adaptation) and longer-term (e.g. learning) experiences. Most past adaptation literature focuses on short-term adaptation. Only recently researchers have begun to investigate how adaptation changes over a span of days. This question is important, since in real life many environmental changes stretch over multiple days or longer. However, the answer to the question remains largely unclear. Here we addressed this issue by tracking perceptual bias (also known as aftereffect) induced by motion or contrast adaptation across multiple daily adaptation sessions. Aftereffects were measured every day after adaptation, which corresponded to the degree of adaptation on each day. For passively viewed adapters, repeated adaptation attenuated aftereffects. Once adapters were presented with an attentional task, aftereffects could either reduce for easy tasks, or initially show an increase followed by a later decrease for demanding tasks. Quantitative analysis of the decay rates in contrast adaptation showed that repeated exposure of the adapter appeared to be equivalent to adaptation to a weaker stimulus. These results suggest that both attention and a non-attentional habituation-like mechanism jointly determine how adaptation develops across multiple daily sessions. PMID:26739917

  3. Mental Workload as a Key Factor in Clinical Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Byrne, Aidan

    2013-01-01

    The decision making process is central to the practice of a clinician and has traditionally been described in terms of the hypothetico-deductive model. More recently, models adapted from cognitive psychology, such as the dual process and script theories have proved useful in explaining patterns of practice not consistent with purely cognitive…

  4. Knowledge Flow Mesh and Its Dynamics: A Decision Support Environment

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-06-01

    paper was the ability of the United States military to achieve dominance through information superiority. The use of intelligent sensors and... Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency, Defense Intelligence Agency, and individual Service intelligence agencies). In fact, these edge entities would... intelligence , design, choice, and implementation. 6. Support variety of decision processes and styles. 7. DSS should be adaptable and flexible. 8. DSS

  5. Career Decision-Making Difficulties of Turkish Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bacanli, Feride

    2016-01-01

    The purposes of this study are (1) to adapt the Career Decision-Making Difficulties Questionnaire (CDDQ) to Turkish high school students and (2) to examine gender differences, grade differences, and differences between "decided" and "undecided" students. The sample consisted of 2509 adolescent students. The results showed that…

  6. Helping Students Make Decisions with the Help of Egan's Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stephens, Ginny Lee; Reynolds, JoLynne

    1992-01-01

    Discusses using Gerald Egan's model for creative decision making as a career counseling tool. Explains why to use this model and how it was adapted to meet career counseling issues. Describes its successful use in three case studies with a college sophomore in search of a major, a new graduate in search of a first job, and a homemaker. (Author/ABL)

  7. Mental Workload as a Key Factor in Clinical Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Byrne, Aidan

    2013-01-01

    The decision making process is central to the practice of a clinician and has traditionally been described in terms of the hypothetico-deductive model. More recently, models adapted from cognitive psychology, such as the dual process and script theories have proved useful in explaining patterns of practice not consistent with purely cognitive…

  8. Memory Dynamics and Decision Making in Younger and Older Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lechuga, M. Teresa; Gomez-Ariza, Carlos J.; Iglesias-Parro, Sergio; Pelegrina, Santiago

    2012-01-01

    The main aim of this research was to study whether memory dynamics influence older people's choices to the same extent as younger's ones. To do so, we adapted the retrieval-practice paradigm to produce variations in memory accessibility of information on which decisions were made later. Based on previous results, we expected to observe…

  9. Societal Boundaries on Cybernetic Action or Decision-Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schulman, Rosalind; Steg, Doreen E.

    This paper discusses the development, application, and implications of a statistical technique--a concordance index--for measuring the restrictions and constrictions (legal and societal) which inhibit individual decision making and adapting behavior. It was found that as sophistication sets in there will be less and less tolerance of these…

  10. Strategic Decision Making Paradigms: A Primer for Senior Leaders

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-08-01

    describe fundamental policy changes and revolutionary decisions, Baumgartner and Jones introduced Punctuated Equilibrium Theory.17 Adapting the...in the development and enactment of policy.18 Baumgartner and Jones’ longitudinal analysis of policymaking outcomes on a variety of issues led to...predictability, and bounded rationality. Baumgartner and Jones attributed the causes of drastic change to: 1) the shifting nature of how issues become

  11. Certification Considerations for Adaptive Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bhattacharyya, Siddhartha; Cofer, Darren; Musliner, David J.; Mueller, Joseph; Engstrom, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Advanced capabilities planned for the next generation of aircraft, including those that will operate within the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), will necessarily include complex new algorithms and non-traditional software elements. These aircraft will likely incorporate adaptive control algorithms that will provide enhanced safety, autonomy, and robustness during adverse conditions. Unmanned aircraft will operate alongside manned aircraft in the National Airspace (NAS), with intelligent software performing the high-level decision-making functions normally performed by human pilots. Even human-piloted aircraft will necessarily include more autonomy. However, there are serious barriers to the deployment of new capabilities, especially for those based upon software including adaptive control (AC) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms. Current civil aviation certification processes are based on the idea that the correct behavior of a system must be completely specified and verified prior to operation. This report by Rockwell Collins and SIFT documents our comprehensive study of the state of the art in intelligent and adaptive algorithms for the civil aviation domain, categorizing the approaches used and identifying gaps and challenges associated with certification of each approach.

  12. Adaptive management of urban watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garmestani, A.; Shuster, W.; Green, O. O.

    2013-12-01

    Consent decree settlements for violations of the Clean Water Act (1972) increasingly include provisions for redress of combined sewer overflow activity through hybrid approaches that incorporate the best of both gray (e.g., storage tunnels) and green infrastructure (e.g., rain gardens). Adaptive management is an environmental management strategy that uses an iterative process of decision-making to improve environmental management via system monitoring. A central tenet of adaptive management is that management involves a learning process that can help regulated communities achieve environmental quality objectives. We are using an adaptive management approach to guide a green infrastructure retrofit of a neighborhood in the Slavic Village Development Corporation area (Cleveland, Ohio). We are in the process of gathering hydrologic and ecosystem services data and will use this data as a basis for collaboration with area citizens on a plan to use green infrastructure to contain stormflows. Monitoring data provides researchers with feedback on the impact of green infrastructure implementation and suggest where improvements can be made.

  13. Computerized Clinical Decision Support: Contributions from 2014.

    PubMed

    Bouaud, J; Koutkias, V

    2015-08-13

    To summarize recent research and propose a selection of best papers published in 2014 in the field of computerized clinical decision support for the Decision Support section of the IMIA yearbook. A literature review was performed by searching two bibliographic databases for papers related to clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) and computerized provider order entry systems in order to select a list of candidate best papers to be then peer-reviewed by external reviewers. A consensus meeting between the two section editors and the editorial team was finally organized to conclude on the selection of best papers. Among the 1,254 returned papers published in 2014, the full review process selected four best papers. The first one is an experimental contribution to a better understanding of unintended uses of CDSSs. The second paper describes the effective use of previously collected data to tailor and adapt a CDSS. The third paper presents an innovative application that uses pharmacogenomic information to support personalized medicine. The fourth paper reports on the long-term effect of the routine use of a CDSS for antibiotic therapy. As health information technologies spread more and more meaningfully, CDSSs are improving to answer users' needs more accurately. The exploitation of previously collected data and the use of genomic data for decision support has started to materialize. However, more work is still needed to address issues related to the correct usage of such technologies, and to assess their effective impact in the long term.

  14. Computerized Clinical Decision Support: Contributions from 2014

    PubMed Central

    Koutkias, V.

    2015-01-01

    Summary Objective To summarize recent research and propose a selection of best papers published in 2014 in the field of computerized clinical decision support for the Decision Support section of the IMIA yearbook. Method A literature review was performed by searching two bibliographic databases for papers related to clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) and computerized provider order entry systems in order to select a list of candidate best papers to be then peer-reviewed by external reviewers. A consensus meeting between the two section editors and the editorial team was finally organized to conclude on the selection of best papers. Results Among the 1,254 returned papers published in 2014, the full review process selected four best papers. The first one is an experimental contribution to a better understanding of unintended uses of CDSSs. The second paper describes the effective use of previously collected data to tailor and adapt a CDSS. The third paper presents an innovative application that uses pharmacogenomic information to support personalized medicine. The fourth paper reports on the long-term effect of the routine use of a CDSS for antibiotic therapy. Conclusions As health information technologies spread more and more meaningfully, CDSSs are improving to answer users’ needs more accurately. The exploitation of previously collected data and the use of genomic data for decision support has started to materialize. However, more work is still needed to address issues related to the correct usage of such technologies, and to assess their effective impact in the long term. PMID:26293858

  15. Contemporary health-related decision aids: tools for social work practice.

    PubMed

    Cummings, Cory R; Bentley, Kia J

    2014-01-01

    The escalating complexity in health-related decisions that people face have important implications for social work interventions. This article explores the nature of these implications within the context of decisional conflict, shared decision making, and the use of decision aids. In addition, the authors present the findings of a content analysis of 29 contemporary health-related decision aids. Emergent categories from this analysis are presented as a resource for social workers as they encounter, adapt, and create decision aids in their work to help address the health-related needs of their clients.

  16. Decision-Theoretic Control of Planetary Rovers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zilberstein, Shlomo; Washington, Richard; Bernstein, Daniel S.; Mouaddib, Abdel-Illah; Morris, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    Planetary rovers are small unmanned vehicles equipped with cameras and a variety of sensors used for scientific experiments. They must operate under tight constraints over such resources as operation time, power, storage capacity, and communication bandwidth. Moreover, the limited computational resources of the rover limit the complexity of on-line planning and scheduling. We describe two decision-theoretic approaches to maximize the productivity of planetary rovers: one based on adaptive planning and the other on hierarchical reinforcement learning. Both approaches map the problem into a Markov decision problem and attempt to solve a large part of the problem off-line, exploiting the structure of the plan and independence between plan components. We examine the advantages and limitations of these techniques and their scalability.

  17. Robust Decision Making

    SciTech Connect

    Christopher A. Dieckmann, PE, CSEP-Acq

    2010-07-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is funded through the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy and other customers who have direct contracts with the Laboratory. The people, equipment, facilities and other infrastructure at the laboratory require continual investment to maintain and improve the laboratory’s capabilities. With ever tightening federal and customer budgets, the ability to direct investments into the people, equipment, facilities and other infrastructure which are most closely aligned with the laboratory’s mission and customers’ goals grows increasingly more important. The ability to justify those investment decisions based on objective criteria that can withstand political, managerial and technical criticism also becomes increasingly more important. The Systems Engineering tools of decision analysis, risk management and roadmapping, when properly applied to such problems, can provide defensible decisions.

  18. Adaptation to Climate change Impacts on the Mediterranean islands' Agriculture (ADAPT2CLIMA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Lemesios, Giannis; Loizidou, Maria; Papadaskalopoulou, Christina; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Papadopoulou, Maria; Moriondo, Marco; Markou, Marinos; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Pasotti, Luigi

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is one of the economic sectors that will likely be hit hardest by climate change, since it directly depends on climatic factors such as temperature, sunlight, and precipitation. The EU LIFE ADAPT2CLIMA (http://adapt2clima.eu/en/) project aims to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture by deploying and demonstrating an innovative decision support tool. The ADAPT2CLIMA tool will make it possible to simulate the impacts of climate change on crop production and the effectiveness of selected adaptation options in decreasing vulnerability to climate change in three Mediterranean islands, namely Crete (Greece), Sicily (Italy), and Cyprus. The islands were selected for two reasons: firstly, they figure among the most important cultivation areas at national level. Secondly, they exhibit similarities in terms of location (climate), size, climate change threats faced (coastal agriculture, own water resources), agricultural practices, and policy relevance. In particular, the tool will provide: i) climate change projections; ii) hydrological conditions related to agriculture: iii) a vulnerability assessment of selected crops; iv) an evaluation of the adaptation options identified. The project is expected to contribute significantly to increasing climate resilience of agriculture areas in Sicily, Cyprus and Crete as well as at EU and international level by: • Developing, implementing and demonstrating an innovative and interactive decision support tool (ADAPT2CLIMA tool) for adaptation planning in agriculture that estimates future climate change impacts on local water resources, as well as the climate change vulnerability of the agricultural crop production in the project areas; • Evaluating the technical and economic viability of the implementation of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool; • Developing climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture (including a monitoring plan) for the three project areas and presenting them to the competent

  19. 75 FR 51264 - Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Decision and Order Granting a Waiver to LG...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-19

    ... humidity sensors and adaptive control anti-sweat heaters. Under today's decision and order, LG shall be required to test and rate its refrigerator-freezers with relative humidity sensors and adaptive control... refrigerator-freezers with relative humidity sensors and adaptive control anti-sweat heaters, provided that...

  20. 75 FR 51262 - Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Decision and Order Granting a Waiver to GE...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-19

    ... humidity sensors and adaptive control anti-sweat heaters. Under today's decision and order, GE shall be required to test and rate its refrigerator-freezers with relative humidity sensors and adaptive control... refrigerator-freezers with relative humidity sensors and adaptive control anti-sweat heaters, provided that...

  1. Development and Standardization of the Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale: Application of Item Response Theory to the Assessment of Adaptive Behavior.

    PubMed

    Tassé, Marc J; Schalock, Robert L; Thissen, David; Balboni, Giulia; Bersani, Henry Hank; Borthwick-Duffy, Sharon A; Spreat, Scott; Widaman, Keith F; Zhang, Dalun; Navas, Patricia

    2016-03-01

    The Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale (DABS) was developed using item response theory (IRT) methods and was constructed to provide the most precise and valid adaptive behavior information at or near the cutoff point of making a decision regarding a diagnosis of intellectual disability. The DABS initial item pool consisted of 260 items. Using IRT modeling and a nationally representative standardization sample, the item set was reduced to 75 items that provide the most precise adaptive behavior information at the cutoff area determining the presence or not of significant adaptive behavior deficits across conceptual, social, and practical skills. The standardization of the DABS is described and discussed.

  2. Treatment decisions under ambiguity.

    PubMed

    Berger, Loïc; Bleichrodt, Han; Eeckhoudt, Louis

    2013-05-01

    Many health risks are ambiguous in the sense that reliable and credible information about these risks is unavailable. In health economics, ambiguity is usually handled through sensitivity analysis, which implicitly assumes that people are neutral towards ambiguity. However, empirical evidence suggests that people are averse to ambiguity and react strongly to it. This paper studies the effects of ambiguity aversion on two classical medical decision problems. If there is ambiguity regarding the diagnosis of a patient, ambiguity aversion increases the decision maker's propensity to opt for treatment. On the other hand, in the case of ambiguity regarding the effects of treatment, ambiguity aversion leads to a reduction in the propensity to choose treatment.

  3. Algorithms for optimal dyadic decision trees

    SciTech Connect

    Hush, Don; Porter, Reid

    2009-01-01

    A new algorithm for constructing optimal dyadic decision trees was recently introduced, analyzed, and shown to be very effective for low dimensional data sets. This paper enhances and extends this algorithm by: introducing an adaptive grid search for the regularization parameter that guarantees optimal solutions for all relevant trees sizes, revising the core tree-building algorithm so that its run time is substantially smaller for most regularization parameter values on the grid, and incorporating new data structures and data pre-processing steps that provide significant run time enhancement in practice.

  4. Decision making in complex environments under conditions of high cognitive loading - A personal expert systems approach

    SciTech Connect

    Tacker, E.C.; Silvia, M.T. Litton Industries, Woodland Hills, CA )

    1991-01-01

    In this article, the problem of decision-making in a prototypical complex decision environment is cast into the conceptual framework of large-scale systems theory. The problem of the lead decision maker within a decision team is described and an operational model is given. It is pointed out that this primarily real intelligence-only decision team is both knowledgeable and adaptive, but not as reliable as might be required under conditions of high cognitive loading. An artificial intelligence-based decision component, the 'trusted assistant', is then proposed as a means of achieving a more effective intelligence balance within the system. The primary structural features of this personal expert system are presented and considerations involved in incorporating it into present-day large-scale decision systems are discussed. It is shown that in many instances this trusted assistant can play a distinctly novel and vital role in the decision-making process. 7 refs.

  5. Brain networks for exploration decisions utilizing distinct modeled information types during contextual learning.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jane X; Voss, Joel L

    2014-06-04

    Exploration permits acquisition of the most relevant information during learning. However, the specific information needed, the influences of this information on decision making, and the relevant neural mechanisms remain poorly understood. We modeled distinct information types available during contextual association learning and used model-based fMRI in conjunction with manipulation of exploratory decision making to identify neural activity associated with information-based decisions. We identified hippocampal-prefrontal contributions to advantageous decisions based on immediately available novel information, distinct from striatal contributions to advantageous decisions based on the sum total available (accumulated) information. Furthermore, network-level interactions among these regions during exploratory decision making were related to learning success. These findings link strategic exploration decisions during learning to quantifiable information and advance understanding of adaptive behavior by identifying the distinct and interactive nature of brain-network contributions to decisions based on distinct information types.

  6. Decision support: Applying climate information for practical insights and actionable information (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moss, R. H.

    2013-12-01

    A wide range of decision-makers - including policy makers and many categories of professionals - should be considering climate information in their decisions and plans. AGU members may increasingly be called on to provide this information. This presentation will explore the importance of a broad approach to developing information of use in decision making. Traditional climate research must be supplemented with climate change decision science that incorporates climate information and includes decision analysis and qualitative research on institutions, perceptions, and other socioeconomic processes essential to implementing adaptation and mitigation decisions. Adoption of this broader paradigm and development of partnerships with decision and social scientists is essential to render climate data into actionable insights. The talk will draw on recent experience with applying modeling in decision support and introduce some practical suggestions.

  7. Assessing adaptation to the health risks of climate change: what guidance can existing frameworks provide?

    PubMed

    Füssel, Hans-Martin

    2008-02-01

    Climate change adaptation assessments aim at assisting policy-makers in reducing the health risks associated with climate change and variability. This paper identifies key characteristics of the climate-health relationship and of the adaptation decision problem that require consideration in climate change adaptation assessments. It then analyzes whether these characteristics are appropriately considered in existing guidelines for climate impact and adaptation assessment and in pertinent conceptual models from environmental epidemiology. The review finds three assessment guidelines based on a generalized risk management framework to be most useful for guiding adaptation assessments of human health. Since none of them adequately addresses all key challenges of the adaptation decision problem, actual adaptation assessments need to combine elements from different guidelines. Established conceptual models from environmental epidemiology are found to be of limited relevance for assessing and planning adaptation to climate change since the prevailing toxicological model of environmental health is not applicable to many climate-sensitive health risks.

  8. Expressing Adaptation Strategies Using Adaptation Patterns

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zemirline, N.; Bourda, Y.; Reynaud, C.

    2012-01-01

    Today, there is a real challenge to enable personalized access to information. Several systems have been proposed to address this challenge including Adaptive Hypermedia Systems (AHSs). However, the specification of adaptation strategies remains a difficult task for creators of such systems. In this paper, we consider the problem of the definition…

  9. Expressing Adaptation Strategies Using Adaptation Patterns

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zemirline, N.; Bourda, Y.; Reynaud, C.

    2012-01-01

    Today, there is a real challenge to enable personalized access to information. Several systems have been proposed to address this challenge including Adaptive Hypermedia Systems (AHSs). However, the specification of adaptation strategies remains a difficult task for creators of such systems. In this paper, we consider the problem of the definition…

  10. Adults with Autism Show Increased Sensitivity to Outcomes at Low Error Rates during Decision-Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Minassian, Arpi; Paulus, Martin; Lincoln, Alan; Perry, William

    2007-01-01

    Decision-making is an important function that can be quantified using a two-choice prediction task. Individuals with Autistic Disorder (AD) often show highly restricted and repetitive behavior that may interfere with adaptive decision-making. We assessed whether AD adults showed repetitive behavior on the choice task that was unaffected by…

  11. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  12. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  13. Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk are not the Same as in Decisions Under Uncertainty

    PubMed Central

    Volz, Kirsten G.; Gigerenzer, Gerd

    2012-01-01

    We deal with risk versus uncertainty, a distinction that is of fundamental importance for cognitive neuroscience yet largely neglected. In a world of risk (“small world”), all alternatives, consequences, and probabilities are known. In uncertain (“large”) worlds, some of this information is unknown or unknowable. Most of cognitive neuroscience studies exclusively study the neural correlates for decisions under risk (e.g., lotteries), with the tacit implication that understanding these would lead to an understanding of decision making in general. First, we show that normative strategies for decisions under risk do not generalize to uncertain worlds, where simple heuristics are often the more accurate strategies. Second, we argue that the cognitive processes for making decisions in a world of risk are not the same as those for dealing with uncertainty. Because situations with known risks are the exception rather than the rule in human evolution, it is unlikely that our brains are adapted to them. We therefore suggest a paradigm shift toward studying decision processes in uncertain worlds and provide first examples. PMID:22807893

  14. Shared decision making in Spain: current state and future perspectives.

    PubMed

    Perestelo-Perez, Lilisbeth; Rivero-Santana, Amado; Perez-Ramos, Jeanette; Gonzalez-Lorenzo, Marien; Roman, Javier Gracia-San; Serrano-Aguilar, Pedro

    2011-01-01

    In the last two decades there has been a growing recognition in the Spanish National Health System (NHS) of the importance of considering patients' values and preferences in clinical decisions. Patient participation in shared decision making (SDM) is gaining importance as a suitable approach to patient-health professional communication and decision making in Spain. In addition, the NHS is funding the development of patients' decision aids (PtDAs) for shared decision making (SDM) by Health Technology Assessment Agencies. However, the NHS has still not incorporated reforms in law that includes SDM and PtDAs as a key component of health care services and professional curricula, nor is there a standardised implementation of interventions to support decisions in routine care. Most patients are not very familiar with their rights to be kept informed and participate in their own health care decisions. Most professionals are not familiar with or educated about patients' rights to be kept informed and participate in health care decisions either. The future of SDM in Spain is promising. The next course of action should be to maintain the production and adaptation of high-quality PtDAs while at the same time reinforcing effective dissemination strategies among patients and training programmes for professionals focused on SDM.

  15. Decisions Concerning Directional Dependence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    von Eye, Alexander; DeShon, Richard P.

    2012-01-01

    In this rejoinder, von Eye and DeShon discuss the decision strategies proposed in their original article ("Directional Dependence in Developmental Research," this issue), as well as the ones proposed by the authors of the commentary (Pornprasertmanit and Little, "Determining Directional Dependency in Causal Associations," this issue). In addition,…

  16. Great Decisions '86.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoepli, Nancy L., Ed.

    Designed to initiate discussion of foreign policy decisions, this book contains an analysis of eight foreign policy issues confronting the United States in 1986. Each unit provides the background and guidelines to provide perspective to assist in understanding foreign policy crises. The units included in this issue are: (1) "How Foreign Policy Is…

  17. Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-11-01

    decision maker’s beliefs must be known to him- self (De Finetti 1974). However, objective probabilities (i.e., frequencies) - those known from observations...CA: Duxbury Press, 664. De Finetti , B. 1974. Theory of probability. New York: Wiley. Dempster, A.P. 1968. A generalization of Bayesian inference

  18. Greenhouse Gas Court Decision

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    View the June 26, 2012, U.S. Court of Appeals- D.C. Circuit's decision to uphold EPA's Endangerment Finding and greenhouse gas regulations issued under the Clean Air Act (CAA) for passenger vehicles and CAA permitting for stationary sources.

  19. Macrocircuits: Decision Networks

    PubMed Central

    Schall, Jeffrey D.

    2012-01-01

    Decision-making requires stimulus categorization and localization to guide accurate responses that can be produced through multiple effectors. The success of actions is monitored so that performance can be adjusted to achieve goals. This review will survey recent empirical and theoretical developments very selectively with an emphasis on neurophysiological data from nonhuman primates that provide the clearest information about neural mechanisms. PMID:23246279

  20. A Personal Decision.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grace, Judy Diane

    1989-01-01

    Three dissertations are discussed: "An Analysis of the Institutional Image of a Private University ..." (James William Klenke); "Factors that Affect a Student's Decision to Enroll at Francis Marion College" (Joseph Edward Heyward); and "An Analysis of College Choice Influence ....Freshmen at a Large Southeastern Urban…

  1. Great Decisions '86.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoepli, Nancy L., Ed.

    Designed to initiate discussion of foreign policy decisions, this book contains an analysis of eight foreign policy issues confronting the United States in 1986. Each unit provides the background and guidelines to provide perspective to assist in understanding foreign policy crises. The units included in this issue are: (1) "How Foreign Policy Is…

  2. The Pierce Decision.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    U. S. Supreme Court

    2000-01-01

    Presents the U. S. Supreme Court decision in the 1925 case of Pierce, Governor of Oregon, et al. v. Society of Sisters of the Holy Names of Jesus and Mary. v. Hill Military Academy. Decrees that the state law requiring parents to enroll students between the ages of 8 and 16 in a public school is unconstitutional. (VWC)

  3. Learning from Failed Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nutt, Paul C.

    2010-01-01

    The consequences and dilemmas posed by learning issues for decision making are discussed. Learning requires both awareness of barriers and a coping strategy. The motives to hold back information essential for learning stem from perverse incentives, obscure outcomes, and the hindsight bias. There is little awareness of perverse incentives that…

  4. Decision by Sampling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, Neil; Chater, Nick; Brown, Gordon D. A.

    2006-01-01

    We present a theory of decision by sampling (DbS) in which, in contrast with traditional models, there are no underlying psychoeconomic scales. Instead, we assume that an attribute's subjective value is constructed from a series of binary, ordinal comparisons to a sample of attribute values drawn from memory and is its rank within the sample. We…

  5. The Pierce Decision.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    U. S. Supreme Court

    2000-01-01

    Presents the U. S. Supreme Court decision in the 1925 case of Pierce, Governor of Oregon, et al. v. Society of Sisters of the Holy Names of Jesus and Mary. v. Hill Military Academy. Decrees that the state law requiring parents to enroll students between the ages of 8 and 16 in a public school is unconstitutional. (VWC)

  6. Decisions Based on Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Campbell, Vincent; Lofstrom, Jocelyn; Jerome, Brian

    This guide makes the case for a decision-making focus in the science curriculum as a response to concern over preparing scientifically literate students. The student activities are organized by guided activities and independent exercises. Themes of the guided activities include xenotransplants, immunizations, household cleaning products, ozone,…

  7. Making Smart Building Decisions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coburn, Janet

    1999-01-01

    Discusses how a positive partnership with the architect can help one who is inexperienced in building design and construction make smart building decisions. Tips address how to prevent change orders, what red flags to look for in a building project, what the administrator should expect from the architect to make the project run smoothly, and what…

  8. Explicating Individual Training Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walter, Marcel; Mueller, Normann

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we explicate individual training decisions. For this purpose, we propose a framework based on instrumentality theory, a psychological theory of motivation that has frequently been applied to individual occupational behavior. To test this framework, we employ novel German individual data and estimate the effect of subjective expected…

  9. Decision Making In Orienteering.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Almeida, Katia

    1997-01-01

    Eight psychometric instruments were administered to 10 elite male Portuguese orienteers. The cognitive process involved in decision making did not differ between the best orienteers and the others. This group of athletes had a high capacity for work realization and a strong need to be in control of interpersonal situations. (Author/SV)

  10. Decisions Based on Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Campbell, Vincent; Lofstrom, Jocelyn; Jerome, Brian

    This guide makes the case for a decision-making focus in the science curriculum as a response to concern over preparing scientifically literate students. The student activities are organized by guided activities and independent exercises. Themes of the guided activities include xenotransplants, immunizations, household cleaning products, ozone,…

  11. Decisions Concerning Directional Dependence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    von Eye, Alexander; DeShon, Richard P.

    2012-01-01

    In this rejoinder, von Eye and DeShon discuss the decision strategies proposed in their original article ("Directional Dependence in Developmental Research," this issue), as well as the ones proposed by the authors of the commentary (Pornprasertmanit and Little, "Determining Directional Dependency in Causal Associations," this issue). In addition,…

  12. A Personal Decision.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grace, Judy Diane

    1989-01-01

    Three dissertations are discussed: "An Analysis of the Institutional Image of a Private University ..." (James William Klenke); "Factors that Affect a Student's Decision to Enroll at Francis Marion College" (Joseph Edward Heyward); and "An Analysis of College Choice Influence ....Freshmen at a Large Southeastern Urban…

  13. Decisions, Changes, and Continuity.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boyer, Ray

    1981-01-01

    Patience and teamwork in long-range planning are seen as having helped ensure prosperity at Williams College. The mechanics involved reaching what is described as a modified consensus. Two major changes included the end of fraternities at the college and the decision to coeducate. (MLW)

  14. The Bilingual Advertising Decision.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grin, Francois

    1994-01-01

    Examines the relationship between linguistic plurality and the rationale of advertising decisions. The article presents a simple model of sales to different language groups as a function of the level of advertising in each language, language attitudes, incomes, and an advertising response function. The model is intended as a benchmark, and several…

  15. Shared Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lashway, Larry

    1997-01-01

    In shared decision making (SDM), principals collaborate with teachers and sometimes parents to take actions aimed at improving instruction and school climate. While research on SDM outcomes is still inconclusive, the literature shows that SDM brings both benefits and problems, and that the principal is a key figure. This brief offers a sampling of…

  16. Matriarchal Decision-Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Warner, Linda Sue

    In contrast to European cultures, many American Indian societies have been matriarchal. Indian women have had a great deal of power, both as individuals and as groups, and have held various leadership roles within their tribes. Traditionally, Indian women have worked in partnership with men, and decision-making has been related to consensus…

  17. Decision making in neonatologia.

    PubMed

    Paterlini, G; Tagliabue, P

    2010-06-01

    The field of neonatology presents a fascinating context in which hugely important decisions have to be made on the basis of physicians' assessments of the long term consequences of various possible choices. In many cases such assessments cannot be derived from a consensual professional opinion; the situation is characterized by a high level of uncertainty. A sample of neonatologists in different countries received a questionnaire including vignette cases for which no clear consensus exists regarding the (probabilistic) prognosis. They were asked to (I) assess the probability of various outcomes (death, severe impairment) and (II) choose a treatment to be offered to the parents. Information on the physicians' professional and socio-demographic characteristics and their ethical "values" was also collected. The goal of this international survey is to understand the prognosis and to analyze decision making by professionals in the context of life and death in medicine. The availability of an identical technology in different social and institutional contexts should help identifying the convergences and differences under consideration. Seventy percent of those invited responded to the questionnaire (International 60-80%). Italian neonatologists seem to be quite pessimistic about the prognosis of infants at high risk of death or long term disabilities, they show a pro-life attitude, but in a certain proportion are willing to change their minds if requested by parents. Furthermore personal opinions predominate in the decision-making process and the contribution of team meeting and/or ethic consultation seem not significantly modify the decisions.

  18. Multicriteria decision analysis: Overview and implications for environmental decision making

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene

    2007-01-01

    Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.

  19. America's Climate Choices: Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilbanks, T.; Yohe, G.; Mengelt, C.; Casola, J.

    2010-12-01

    At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies that the nation can take to respond to climate change. As part of this suite of activities, this study assessed, this study assessed how the nation can begin to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Much of the nation’s experience to date in managing and protecting its people, resources, and infrastructure is based on the historic record of climate variability during a period of relatively stable climate. Adaptation to climate change calls for a new paradigm - one that considers a range of possible future climate conditions and associated impacts. The Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change report calls for action at all levels of government, NGOs, and the private sector to assess vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change and identify options for adaptation. Current adaptation efforts are hampered by a lack of solid information about the benefits, costs, and effectiveness of various adaptation options, by uncertainty about future climate change impacts at a scale necessary for decision-making, and by a lack of coordination. The report outlines a risk management framework that can be applied to assess vulnerabilities, compare and evaluate potential adaptation options, recognizing that decision makers across the country are likely to pursue a diverse set of adaptation measures. A major research effort is needed to improve knowledge about current and future vulnerabilities, explore new adaptation options, and better inform adaptation decisions. Therefore, the report also emphasizes the need to continually re-assess adaptation decisions as the experience and knowledge regarding effective adaptation evolves. A national adaptation strategy is needed in which the federal government would support and enhance adaptation activities undertaken by state, local, tribal, and private entities; identify and modify

  20. Do Bayesian adaptive trials offer advantages for comparative effectiveness research? Protocol for the RE-ADAPT study

    PubMed Central

    Luce, Bryan R; Broglio, Kristine R; Ishak, K Jack; Mullins, C Daniel; Vanness, David J; Fleurence, Rachael; Saunders, Elijah; Davis, Barry R

    2013-01-01

    Background Randomized clinical trials, particularly for comparative effectiveness research (CER), are frequently criticized for being overly restrictive or untimely for health-care decision making. Purpose Our prospectively designed REsearch in ADAptive methods for Pragmatic Trials (RE-ADAPT) study is a ‘proof of concept’ to stimulate investment in Bayesian adaptive designs for future CER trials. Methods We will assess whether Bayesian adaptive designs offer potential efficiencies in CER by simulating a re-execution of the Antihypertensive and Lipid Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT) study using actual data from ALLHAT. Results We prospectively define seven alternate designs consisting of various combinations of arm dropping, adaptive randomization, and early stopping and describe how these designs will be compared to the original ALLHAT design. We identify the one particular design that would have been executed, which incorporates early stopping and information-based adaptive randomization. Limitations While the simulation realistically emulates patient enrollment, interim analyses, and adaptive changes to design, it cannot incorporate key features like the involvement of data monitoring committee in making decisions about adaptive changes. Conclusion This article describes our analytic approach for RE-ADAPT. The next stage of the project is to conduct the re-execution analyses using the seven prespecified designs and the original ALLHAT data. PMID:23983160