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Sample records for adaptive peircean decision

  1. Adaptive Peircean decision aid project summary assessments.

    SciTech Connect

    Senglaub, Michael E.

    2007-01-01

    This efforts objective was to identify and hybridize a suite of technologies enabling the development of predictive decision aids for use principally in combat environments but also in any complex information terrain. The technologies required included formal concept analysis for knowledge representation and information operations, Peircean reasoning to support hypothesis generation, Mill's's canons to begin defining information operators that support the first two technologies and co-evolutionary game theory to provide the environment/domain to assess predictions from the reasoning engines. The intended application domain is the IED problem because of its inherent evolutionary nature. While a fully functioning integrated algorithm was not achieved the hybridization and demonstration of the technologies was accomplished and demonstration of utility provided for a number of ancillary queries.

  2. Peircean Decision Aid

    SciTech Connect

    SENGLAUB, MICHAEL; & WHITFIELD, GREG

    2008-08-14

    The Peircean decision aid (PDA) is a decision support architecture and embedded functionality that supports a decision maker in very complex environments dealing with massive amounts of disparate data, information and knowledge. The solution generated is a hybrid system solution employing a number of technologies that are based on Peircean reasoning, modal logic, and formal concept analysis. The system convolves data/information with knowledge to create a virtual belief state that is passed to a decision maker for consideration. The system can capture categorized knowledge or it can inductively learn or acquire new knowledge from suites of observations. Captured knowledge is used to abductively generate hypotheses that are potential explanations to observations or collected data. The zero order modal logic architecture is designed to augment knowledge update and belief revision and can be extended to include disjunctive screening of collected data. While intended to be a library for integration into a decision support architecture it possesses a basic stand-alone GUI for use as an analysis support tool.

  3. Peircean Decision Aid

    2008-08-14

    The Peircean decision aid (PDA) is a decision support architecture and embedded functionality that supports a decision maker in very complex environments dealing with massive amounts of disparate data, information and knowledge. The solution generated is a hybrid system solution employing a number of technologies that are based on Peircean reasoning, modal logic, and formal concept analysis. The system convolves data/information with knowledge to create a virtual belief state that is passed to a decisionmore » maker for consideration. The system can capture categorized knowledge or it can inductively learn or acquire new knowledge from suites of observations. Captured knowledge is used to abductively generate hypotheses that are potential explanations to observations or collected data. The zero order modal logic architecture is designed to augment knowledge update and belief revision and can be extended to include disjunctive screening of collected data. While intended to be a library for integration into a decision support architecture it possesses a basic stand-alone GUI for use as an analysis support tool.« less

  4. Training Adaptive Decision-Making.

    SciTech Connect

    Abbott, Robert G.; Forsythe, James C.

    2014-10-01

    Adaptive Thinking has been defined here as the capacity to recognize when a course of action that may have previously been effective is no longer effective and there is need to adjust strategy. Research was undertaken with human test subjects to identify the factors that contribute to adaptive thinking. It was discovered that those most effective in settings that call for adaptive thinking tend to possess a superior capacity to quickly and effectively generate possible courses of action, as measured using the Category Generation test. Software developed for this research has been applied to develop capabilities enabling analysts to identify crucial factors that are predictive of outcomes in fore-on-force simulation exercises.

  5. Decision-level adaptation in motion perception

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Prolonged exposure to visual stimuli causes a bias in observers' responses to subsequent stimuli. Such adaptation-induced biases are usually explained in terms of changes in the relative activity of sensory neurons in the visual system which respond selectively to the properties of visual stimuli. However, the bias could also be due to a shift in the observer's criterion for selecting one response rather than the alternative; adaptation at the decision level of processing rather than the sensory level. We investigated whether adaptation to implied motion is best attributed to sensory-level or decision-level bias. Three experiments sought to isolate decision factors by changing the nature of the participants' task while keeping the sensory stimulus unchanged. Results showed that adaptation-induced bias in reported stimulus direction only occurred when the participants' task involved a directional judgement, and disappeared when adaptation was measured using a non-directional task (reporting where motion was present in the display, regardless of its direction). We conclude that adaptation to implied motion is due to decision-level bias, and that a propensity towards such biases may be widespread in sensory decision-making. PMID:27019726

  6. Bayesian Decision Support for Adaptive Lung Treatments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McShan, Daniel; Luo, Yi; Schipper, Matt; TenHaken, Randall

    2014-03-01

    Purpose: A Bayesian Decision Network will be demonstrated to provide clinical decision support for adaptive lung response-driven treatment management based on evidence that physiologic metrics may correlate better with individual patient response than traditional (population-based) dose and volume-based metrics. Further, there is evidence that information obtained during the course of radiation therapy may further improve response predictions. Methods: Clinical factors were gathered for 58 patients including planned mean lung dose, and the bio-markers IL-8 and TGF-β1 obtained prior to treatment and two weeks into treatment along with complication outcomes for these patients. A Bayesian Decision Network was constructed using Netica 5.0.2 from Norsys linking these clinical factors to obtain a prediction of radiation induced lung disese (RILD) complication. A decision node was added to the network to provide a plan adaption recommendation based on the trade-off between the RILD prediction and complexity of replanning. A utility node provides the weighting cost between the competing factors. Results: The decision node predictions were optimized against the data for the 58 cases. With this decision network solution, one can consider the decision result for a new patient with specific findings to obtain a recommendation to adaptively modify the originally planned treatment course. Conclusions: A Bayesian approach allows handling and propagating probabilistic data in a logical and principled manner. Decision networks provide the further ability to provide utility-based trade-offs, reflecting non-medical but practical cost/benefit analysis. The network demonstrated illustrates the basic concept, but many other factors may affect these decisions and work on building better models are being designed and tested. Acknowledgement: Supported by NIH-P01-CA59827

  7. Farmer Decision-Making for Climate Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lubell, M.; Niles, M.; Salerno, J.

    2015-12-01

    This talk will provide an overview of several studies of how farmers make decisions about climate change adaptation and mitigation. A particular focus will be the "limiting factors hypothesis", which argues that farmers will respond to the climate variables that usually have the largest impact on their crop productivity. For example, the most limiting factor in California is usually water so how climate change affects water will be the largest drive of climate adaptation decisions. This basic idea is drawn from the broader theory of "psychological distance", which argue that human decisions are more attuned to ideas that are psychologically closer in space, time, or other factors. Empirical examples come from California, New Zealand, and Africa.

  8. Decision-making triggers in adaptive management.

    PubMed

    Nie, Martin A; Schultz, Courtney A

    2012-12-01

    We analyzed whether decision-making triggers increase accountability of adaptive-management plans. Triggers are prenegotiated commitments in an adaptive-management plan that specify what actions are to be taken and when on the basis of information obtained from monitoring. Triggers improve certainty that particular actions will be taken by agencies in the future. We conducted an in-depth, qualitative review of the political and legal contexts of adaptive management and its application by U.S. federal agencies. Agencies must satisfy the judiciary that adaptive-management plans meet substantive legal standards and comply with the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act. We examined 3 cases in which triggers were used in adaptive-management plans: salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in the Columbia River, oil and gas development by the Bureau of Land Management, and a habitat conservation plan under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. In all the cases, key aspects of adaptive management, including controls and preidentified feedback loops, were not incorporated in the plans. Monitoring and triggered mitigation actions were limited in their enforceability, which was contingent on several factors, including which laws applied in each case and the degree of specificity in how triggers were written into plans. Other controversial aspects of these plans revolved around who designed, conducted, interpreted, and funded monitoring programs. Additional contentious issues were the level of precaution associated with trigger mechanisms and the definition of ecological baselines used as points of comparison. Despite these challenges, triggers can be used to increase accountability, by predefining points at which an adaptive management plan will be revisited and reevaluated, and thus improve the application of adaptive management in its complicated political and legal context. PMID:22891956

  9. Age Differences in Adaptive Decision Making: The Role of Numeracy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Yiwei; Wang, Jiaxi; Kirk, Robert M.; Pethtel, Olivia L.; Kiefner, Allison E.

    2014-01-01

    The primary purposes of the present study were to examine age differences in adaptive decision making and to evaluate the role of numeracy in mediating the relationship between age and adaptive decision making. Adaptive decision making was assessed by the Cups task (Levin, Weller, Pederson, & Harshman, 2007). Forty-six younger (18 to 24 years…

  10. Toward an Expanded Definition of Adaptive Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phillips, Susan D.

    1997-01-01

    Uses the lifespan, life-space model to examine the definition of adaptive decision making. Reviews the existing definition of adaptive decision making as "rational" decision making and offers alternate perspectives on decision making with an emphasis on the implications of using the model. Makes suggestions for future theory, research, and…

  11. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  12. Decision criteria of potential solar IPH adapters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perwin, E.; Levine, A.; Mikasa, G.; Noun, R. J.; Schaller, D.

    1981-12-01

    If national programs are to be effective in the research and development of viable renewable resource technologies for the industrial sector, understanding industry's decision criteria will be important. The results of a preliminary investigation of the decision criteria of potential and actual users of solar industrial process heat systems are presented. Detailed interviews were completed with decision-makers from ten manufacturing firms. Based on economic theory, it was assumed that corporate decision-makers assess the expected cost, revenue, and uncertainty of competing investment opportunities. These decision criteria are composed of factors that are financial, technical, and institutional. Clearly, the firms interviewed were more concerned with costs than any other category of decision criteria. Most of the firms also believed that there was less uncertainty with competing investments than with current solar technology. Based on this preliminary investigation, a more extensive survey of industrial firms is suggested to determine a more comprehensive list of significant decision criteria.

  13. The adaptability of career decision-making profiles.

    PubMed

    Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Dayan, Amira

    2012-10-01

    The Career Decision-Making Profiles questionnaire (CDMP; Gati, Landman, Davidovitch, Asulin-Peretz, & Gadassi, 2010) uses a new model for characterizing the way individuals make decisions based on the simultaneous use of 11 dimensions. The present study investigated which pole of each dimension is more adaptive. Using the data of 383 young adults who were about to make a career choice, we assessed the individuals' decision status and the associations of the dimensions Emotional and Personality-related Career decision-making Difficulties (EPCD; Saka, Gati, & Kelly, 2008) and personality factors (NEO Personality Inventory-Revised; Costa & McCrae, 1992). The results suggest that, as hypothesized, comprehensive Information gathering, analytic Information processing, a more internal Locus of control, more Effort invested, less Procrastination, greater Speed of making the final decision, less Dependence on others, and less Desire to please others were more adaptive in making career decisions. However, contrary to our hypotheses, high Aspiration for an ideal occupation was more adaptive for the decision-making process, Willingness to compromise was not associated with more adaptive decision making, and the results regarding Consulting with others were mixed. Gender differences in the CDMP dimensions and counseling implications are discussed. PMID:22746185

  14. The Adaptability of Career Decision-Making Profiles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Dayan, Amira

    2012-01-01

    The Career Decision-Making Profiles questionnaire (CDMP; Gati, Landman, Davidovitch, Asulin-Peretz, & Gadassi, 2010) uses a new model for characterizing the way individuals make decisions based on the simultaneous use of 11 dimensions. The present study investigated which pole of each dimension is more adaptive. Using the data of 383 young adults…

  15. Decision-making in healthcare as a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Kuziemsky, Craig

    2016-01-01

    Healthcare transformation requires a change in how the business of healthcare is done. Traditional decision-making approaches based on stable and predictable systems are inappropriate in healthcare because of the complex nature of healthcare delivery. This article reviews challenges to using traditional decision-making approaches in healthcare and how insight from Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) could support healthcare management. The article also provides a system model to guide decision-making in healthcare as a CAS.

  16. Adaptive Decision Aiding in Computer-Assisted Instruction: Adaptive Computerized Training System (ACTS).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hopf-Weichel, Rosemarie; And Others

    This report describes results of the first year of a three-year program to develop and evaluate a new Adaptive Computerized Training System (ACTS) for electronics maintenance training. (ACTS incorporates an adaptive computer program that learns the student's diagnostic and decision value structure, compares it to that of an expert, and adapts the…

  17. How Useful Are Climate Projections for Adaptation Decision Making?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, J. B.; Vogel, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    Decision making is often portrayed as a linear process that assumes scientific knowledge is a necessary precursor to effective policy and is used directly in policy making. Yet, in practice, the use of scientific information in decision making is more complex than the linear model implies. The use of climate projections in adaptation decision making is a case in point. This paper briefly reviews efforts by some decision makers to understand climate change risks and to apply this knowledge when making decisions on management of climate sensitive resources and infrastructure . In general, and in spite of extensive efforts to study climate change at the regional and local scale to support decision making, few decisions outside of adapting to sea level rise appear to directly apply to climate change projections. A number of U.S. municipalities and states, including Seattle, New York City, Phoenix, and the States of California and Washington, have used climate change projections to assess their vulnerability to various climate change impacts. Some adaptation decisions have been made based on projections of sea level rise, such as change in location of infrastructure. This may be because a future rise is sea level is virtually certain. In contrast, decision making on precipitation has been more limited, even where there is consensus on likely changes in sign of the variable. Nonetheless, decision makers are adopting strategies that can be justified based on current climate and climate variability and that also reduce risks to climate change. A key question for the scientific community is whether improved projections will add value to decision making. For example, it remains unclear how higher-resolution projections can change decision making as long as the sign and magnitude of projections across climate models and downscaling techniques retains a wide range of uncertainty. It is also unclear whether even better information on the sign and magnitude of change would

  18. Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach.

    PubMed

    Cavagnaro, Daniel R; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I; Pitt, Mark A

    2013-02-01

    Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models. PMID:24532856

  19. Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach

    PubMed Central

    Cavagnaro, Daniel R.; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I.; Pitt, Mark A.

    2014-01-01

    Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models. PMID:24532856

  20. Episodic memories predict adaptive value-based decision-making.

    PubMed

    Murty, Vishnu P; FeldmanHall, Oriel; Hunter, Lindsay E; Phelps, Elizabeth A; Davachi, Lila

    2016-05-01

    Prior research illustrates that memory can guide value-based decision-making. For example, previous work has implicated both working memory and procedural memory (i.e., reinforcement learning) in guiding choice. However, other types of memories, such as episodic memory, may also influence decision-making. Here we test the role for episodic memory-specifically item versus associative memory-in supporting value-based choice. Participants completed a task where they first learned the value associated with trial unique lotteries. After a short delay, they completed a decision-making task where they could choose to reengage with previously encountered lotteries, or new never before seen lotteries. Finally, participants completed a surprise memory test for the lotteries and their associated values. Results indicate that participants chose to reengage more often with lotteries that resulted in high versus low rewards. Critically, participants not only formed detailed, associative memories for the reward values coupled with individual lotteries, but also exhibited adaptive decision-making only when they had intact associative memory. We further found that the relationship between adaptive choice and associative memory generalized to more complex, ecologically valid choice behavior, such as social decision-making. However, individuals more strongly encode experiences of social violations-such as being treated unfairly, suggesting a bias for how individuals form associative memories within social contexts. Together, these findings provide an important integration of episodic memory and decision-making literatures to better understand key mechanisms supporting adaptive behavior. PMID:26999046

  1. Adaptive criterion setting in perceptual decision making.

    PubMed

    Stüttgen, Maik C; Yildiz, Ali; Güntürkün, Onur

    2011-09-01

    Pigeons responded in a perceptual categorization task with six different stimuli (shades of gray), three of which were to be classified as "light" or "dark", respectively. Reinforcement probability for correct responses was varied from 0.2 to 0.6 across blocks of sessions and was unequal for correct light and dark responses. Introduction of a new reinforcement contingency resulted in a biphasic process of adjustment: First, choices were strongly biased towards the favored alternative, which was followed by a shift of preference back towards unbiased choice allocation. The data are well described by a signal detection model in which adjustment to a change in reinforcement contingency is modeled as the change of a criterion along a decision axis with fixed stimulus distributions. Moreover, the model shows that pigeons, after an initial overadjustment, distribute their responses almost optimally, although the overall benefit from doing so is extremely small. The strong and swift effect of minute changes in overall reinforcement probability precludes a choice strategy directly maximizing expected value, contrary to the assumption of signal detection theory. Instead, the rapid adjustments observed can be explained by a model in which reinforcement probabilities for each action, contingent on perceived stimulus intensity, determine choice allocation.

  2. Adaptive neural coding: from biological to behavioral decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W.; Webb, Ryan

    2015-01-01

    Empirical decision-making in diverse species deviates from the predictions of normative choice theory, but why such suboptimal behavior occurs is unknown. Here, we propose that deviations from optimality arise from biological decision mechanisms that have evolved to maximize choice performance within intrinsic biophysical constraints. Sensory processing utilizes specific computations such as divisive normalization to maximize information coding in constrained neural circuits, and recent evidence suggests that analogous computations operate in decision-related brain areas. These adaptive computations implement a relative value code that may explain the characteristic context-dependent nature of behavioral violations of classical normative theory. Examining decision-making at the computational level thus provides a crucial link between the architecture of biological decision circuits and the form of empirical choice behavior. PMID:26722666

  3. Sequential decision making in computational sustainability via adaptive submodularity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Andreas Krause,; Daniel Golovin,; Converse, Sarah J.

    2015-01-01

    Many problems in computational sustainability require making a sequence of decisions in complex, uncertain environments. Such problems are generally notoriously difficult. In this article, we review the recently discovered notion of adaptive submodularity, an intuitive diminishing returns condition that generalizes the classical notion of submodular set functions to sequential decision problems. Problems exhibiting the adaptive submodularity property can be efficiently and provably near-optimally solved using simple myopic policies. We illustrate this concept in several case studies of interest in computational sustainability: First, we demonstrate how it can be used to efficiently plan for resolving uncertainty in adaptive management scenarios. Secondly, we show how it applies to dynamic conservation planning for protecting endangered species, a case study carried out in collaboration with the US Geological Survey and the US Fish and Wildlife Service.

  4. Engaging stakeholders for adaptive management using structured decision analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Irwin, Elise R.; Kathryn, D.; Kennedy, Mickett

    2009-01-01

    Adaptive management is different from other types of management in that it includes all stakeholders (versus only policy makers) in the process, uses resource optimization techniques to evaluate competing objectives, and recognizes and attempts to reduce uncertainty inherent in natural resource systems. Management actions are negotiated by stakeholders, monitored results are compared to predictions of how the system should respond, and management strategies are adjusted in a “monitor-compare-adjust” iterative routine. Many adaptive management projects fail because of the lack of stakeholder identification, engagement, and continued involvement. Primary reasons for this vary but are usually related to either stakeholders not having ownership (or representation) in decision processes or disenfranchisement of stakeholders after adaptive management begins. We present an example in which stakeholders participated fully in adaptive management of a southeastern regulated river. Structured decision analysis was used to define management objectives and stakeholder values and to determine initial flow prescriptions. The process was transparent, and the visual nature of the modeling software allowed stakeholders to see how their interests and values were represented in the decision process. The development of a stakeholder governance structure and communication mechanism has been critical to the success of the project.

  5. A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Parish, Esther S; Nugent, Philip J

    2016-01-01

    Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). For all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

  6. Adaptive shape coding for perceptual decisions in the human brain.

    PubMed

    Kourtzi, Zoe; Welchman, Andrew E

    2015-01-01

    In its search for neural codes, the field of visual neuroscience has uncovered neural representations that reflect the structure of stimuli of variable complexity from simple features to object categories. However, accumulating evidence suggests an adaptive neural code that is dynamically shaped by experience to support flexible and efficient perceptual decisions. Here, we review work showing that experience plays a critical role in molding midlevel visual representations for perceptual decisions. Combining behavioral and brain imaging measurements, we demonstrate that learning optimizes feature binding for object recognition in cluttered scenes, and tunes the neural representations of informative image parts to support efficient categorical judgements. Our findings indicate that similar learning mechanisms may mediate long-term optimization through development, tune the visual system to fundamental principles of feature binding, and optimize feature templates for perceptual decisions. PMID:26024511

  7. Adaptive shape coding for perceptual decisions in the human brain

    PubMed Central

    Kourtzi, Zoe; Welchman, Andrew E.

    2015-01-01

    In its search for neural codes, the field of visual neuroscience has uncovered neural representations that reflect the structure of stimuli of variable complexity from simple features to object categories. However, accumulating evidence suggests an adaptive neural code that is dynamically shaped by experience to support flexible and efficient perceptual decisions. Here, we review work showing that experience plays a critical role in molding midlevel visual representations for perceptual decisions. Combining behavioral and brain imaging measurements, we demonstrate that learning optimizes feature binding for object recognition in cluttered scenes, and tunes the neural representations of informative image parts to support efficient categorical judgements. Our findings indicate that similar learning mechanisms may mediate long-term optimization through development, tune the visual system to fundamental principles of feature binding, and optimize feature templates for perceptual decisions. PMID:26024511

  8. How Does the Brain Implement Adaptive Decision Making to Eat?

    PubMed Central

    Walsh, B. Timothy; Kaye, Walter; Geliebter, Allan

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive decision making to eat is crucial for survival, but in anorexia nervosa, the brain persistently supports reduced food intake despite a growing need for energy. How the brain persists in reducing food intake, sometimes even to the point of death and despite the evolution of multiple mechanisms to ensure survival by governing adaptive eating behaviors, remains mysterious. Neural substrates belong to the reward-habit system, which could differ among the eating disorders. The present review provides an overview of neural circuitry of restrictive food choice, binge eating, and the contribution of specific serotonin receptors. One possibility is that restrictive food intake critically engages goal-directed (decision making) systems and “habit,” supporting the view that persistent caloric restriction mimics some aspects of addiction to drugs of abuse. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT An improved understanding of the neural basis of eating disorders is a timely challenge because these disorders can be deadly. Up to 70 million of people in the world suffer from eating disorders. Anorexia nervosa affects 1–4% of women in United States and is the first cause of death among adolescents in Europe. Studies relying on animal models suggest that decision making to eat (or not) can prevail over actual energy requirements due to emotional disturbances resulting in abnormal habitual behavior, mimicking dependence. These recent studies provide a foundation for developing more specific and effective interventions for these disorders. PMID:26468187

  9. Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

    2011-12-01

    Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this

  10. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

  11. What is adaptive about adaptive decision making? A parallel constraint satisfaction account.

    PubMed

    Glöckner, Andreas; Hilbig, Benjamin E; Jekel, Marc

    2014-12-01

    There is broad consensus that human cognition is adaptive. However, the vital question of how exactly this adaptivity is achieved has remained largely open. Herein, we contrast two frameworks which account for adaptive decision making, namely broad and general single-mechanism accounts vs. multi-strategy accounts. We propose and fully specify a single-mechanism model for decision making based on parallel constraint satisfaction processes (PCS-DM) and contrast it theoretically and empirically against a multi-strategy account. To achieve sufficiently sensitive tests, we rely on a multiple-measure methodology including choice, reaction time, and confidence data as well as eye-tracking. Results show that manipulating the environmental structure produces clear adaptive shifts in choice patterns - as both frameworks would predict. However, results on the process level (reaction time, confidence), in information acquisition (eye-tracking), and from cross-predicting choice consistently corroborate single-mechanisms accounts in general, and the proposed parallel constraint satisfaction model for decision making in particular.

  12. A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

    2013-12-01

    Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more

  13. Homeostatic Regulation of Memory Systems and Adaptive Decisions

    PubMed Central

    Mizumori, Sheri JY; Jo, Yong Sang

    2013-01-01

    While it is clear that many brain areas process mnemonic information, understanding how their interactions result in continuously adaptive behaviors has been a challenge. A homeostatic-regulated prediction model of memory is presented that considers the existence of a single memory system that is based on a multilevel coordinated and integrated network (from cells to neural systems) that determines the extent to which events and outcomes occur as predicted. The “multiple memory systems of the brain” have in common output that signals errors in the prediction of events and/or their outcomes, although these signals differ in terms of what the error signal represents (e.g., hippocampus: context prediction errors vs. midbrain/striatum: reward prediction errors). The prefrontal cortex likely plays a pivotal role in the coordination of prediction analysis within and across prediction brain areas. By virtue of its widespread control and influence, and intrinsic working memory mechanisms. Thus, the prefrontal cortex supports the flexible processing needed to generate adaptive behaviors and predict future outcomes. It is proposed that prefrontal cortex continually and automatically produces adaptive responses according to homeostatic regulatory principles: prefrontal cortex may serve as a controller that is intrinsically driven to maintain in prediction areas an experience-dependent firing rate set point that ensures adaptive temporally and spatially resolved neural responses to future prediction errors. This same drive by prefrontal cortex may also restore set point firing rates after deviations (i.e. prediction errors) are detected. In this way, prefrontal cortex contributes to reducing uncertainty in prediction systems. An emergent outcome of this homeostatic view may be the flexible and adaptive control that prefrontal cortex is known to implement (i.e. working memory) in the most challenging of situations. Compromise to any of the prediction circuits should result

  14. Adaptive awareness for personal and small group decision making.

    SciTech Connect

    Perano, Kenneth J.; Tucker, Steve; Pancerella, Carmen M.; Doser, Adele Beatrice; Berry, Nina M.; Kyker, Ronald D.

    2003-12-01

    Many situations call for the use of sensors monitoring physiological and environmental data. In order to use the large amounts of sensor data to affect decision making, we are coupling heterogeneous sensors with small, light-weight processors, other powerful computers, wireless communications, and embedded intelligent software. The result is an adaptive awareness and warning tool, which provides both situation awareness and personal awareness to individuals and teams. Central to this tool is a sensor-independent architecture, which combines both software agents and a reusable core software framework that manages the available hardware resources and provides services to the agents. Agents can recognize cues from the data, warn humans about situations, and act as decision-making aids. Within the agents, self-organizing maps (SOMs) are used to process physiological data in order to provide personal awareness. We have employed a novel clustering algorithm to train the SOM to discern individual body states and activities. This awareness tool has broad applicability to emergency teams, military squads, military medics, individual exercise and fitness monitoring, health monitoring for sick and elderly persons, and environmental monitoring in public places. This report discusses our hardware decisions, software framework, and a pilot awareness tool, which has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories.

  15. What Does It Take to Produce Interpretation? Informational, Peircean, and Code-Semiotic Views on Biosemiotics

    SciTech Connect

    Brier, Soren; Joslyn, Cliff A.

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents a critical analysis of code-semiotics, which we see as the latest attempt to create paradigmatic foundation for solving the question of the emergence of life and consciousness. We view code semiotics as a an attempt to revise the empirical scientific Darwinian paradigm, and to go beyond the complex systems, emergence, self-organization, and informational paradigms, and also the selfish gene theory of Dawkins and the Peircean pragmaticist semiotic theory built on the simultaneous types of evolution. As such it is a new and bold attempt to use semiotics to solve the problems created by the evolutionary paradigm’s commitment to produce a theory of how to connect the two sides of the Cartesian dualistic view of physical reality and consciousness in a consistent way.

  16. Observations to support adaptation: Principles, scales and decision-making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    As has been long noted, a comprehensive, coordinated observing system is the backbone of any Earth information system. Demands are increasingly placed on earth observation and prediction systems and attendant services to address the needs of economically and environmentally vulnerable sectors and investments, including energy, water, human health, transportation, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, biodiversity, and national security. Climate services include building capacity to interpret information and recognize standards and limitations of data in the promotion of social and economic development in a changing climate. This includes improving the understanding of climate in the context of a variety of temporal and spatial scales (including the influence of decadal scale forcings and land surface feedbacks on seasonal forecast reliability). Climate data and information are central for developing decision options that are sensitive to climate-related uncertainties and the design of flexible adaptation pathways. Ideally monitoring should be action oriented to support climate risk assessment and adaptation including informing robust decision making to multiple risks over the long term. Based on the experience of global observations programs and empirical research we outline- Challenges in developing effective monitoring and climate information systems to support adaptation. The types of observations of critical importance needed for sector planning to enhance food, water and energy security, and to improve early warning for disaster risk reduction Observations needed for ecosystem-based adaptation including the identification of thresholds, maintenance of biological diversity and land degradation The benefits and limits of linking regional model output to local observations including analogs and verification for adaptation planning To support these goals a robust systems of integrated observations are needed to characterize the uncertainty surrounding emergent risks

  17. Toolbox or Adjustable Spanner? A Critical Comparison of Two Metaphors for Adaptive Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Söllner, Anke; Bröder, Arndt

    2016-01-01

    For multiattribute decision tasks, different metaphors exist that describe the process of decision making and its adaptation to diverse problems and situations. Multiple strategy models (MSMs) assume that decision makers choose adaptively from a set of different strategies (toolbox metaphor), whereas evidence accumulation models (EAMs) hold that a…

  18. The Selection of Test Items for Decision Making with a Computer Adaptive Test.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spray, Judith A.; Reckase, Mark D.

    The issue of test-item selection in support of decision making in adaptive testing is considered. The number of items needed to make a decision is compared for two approaches: selecting items from an item pool that are most informative at the decision point or selecting items that are most informative at the examinee's ability level. The first…

  19. A Model for Making Decisions about Text Adaptations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dyck, Norma; Pemberton, Jane B.

    2002-01-01

    This article examines a process for teachers to use when deciding whether to adapt a text for a student. The following five options for text adaptations are described: bypass reading, decrease reading, support reading, organize reading, and guide reading. Adaptations for student work products and for tests are also addressed. (Contains…

  20. Modeling Adaptation as a Flow and Stock Decision with Mitigation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mitigation and adaptation are the two key responses available to policymakers to reduce the risks of climate change. We model these two policies together in a new DICE-based integrated assessment model that characterizes adaptation as either short-lived flow spending or long-liv...

  1. Characterizing Decision-Analysis Performances of Risk Prediction Models Using ADAPT Curves

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Wen-Chung; Wu, Yun-Chun

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve is a widely used index to characterize the performance of diagnostic tests and prediction models. However, the index does not explicitly acknowledge the utilities of risk predictions. Moreover, for most clinical settings, what counts is whether a prediction model can guide therapeutic decisions in a way that improves patient outcomes, rather than to simply update probabilities. Based on decision theory, the authors propose an alternative index, the “average deviation about the probability threshold” (ADAPT). An ADAPT curve (a plot of ADAPT value against the probability threshold) neatly characterizes the decision-analysis performances of a risk prediction model. Several prediction models can be compared for their ADAPT values at a chosen probability threshold, for a range of plausible threshold values, or for the whole ADAPT curves. This should greatly facilitate the selection of diagnostic tests and prediction models. PMID:26765451

  2. Adaptive network models of collective decision making in swarming systems.

    PubMed

    Chen, Li; Huepe, Cristián; Gross, Thilo

    2016-08-01

    We consider a class of adaptive network models where links can only be created or deleted between nodes in different states. These models provide an approximate description of a set of systems where nodes represent agents moving in physical or abstract space, the state of each node represents the agent's heading direction, and links indicate mutual awareness. We show analytically that the adaptive network description captures a phase transition to collective motion in some swarming systems, such as the Vicsek model, and that the properties of this transition are determined by the number of states (discrete heading directions) that can be accessed by each agent.

  3. Adaptive network models of collective decision making in swarming systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Li; Huepe, Cristián; Gross, Thilo

    2016-08-01

    We consider a class of adaptive network models where links can only be created or deleted between nodes in different states. These models provide an approximate description of a set of systems where nodes represent agents moving in physical or abstract space, the state of each node represents the agent's heading direction, and links indicate mutual awareness. We show analytically that the adaptive network description captures a phase transition to collective motion in some swarming systems, such as the Vicsek model, and that the properties of this transition are determined by the number of states (discrete heading directions) that can be accessed by each agent.

  4. Adaptive network models of collective decision making in swarming systems.

    PubMed

    Chen, Li; Huepe, Cristián; Gross, Thilo

    2016-08-01

    We consider a class of adaptive network models where links can only be created or deleted between nodes in different states. These models provide an approximate description of a set of systems where nodes represent agents moving in physical or abstract space, the state of each node represents the agent's heading direction, and links indicate mutual awareness. We show analytically that the adaptive network description captures a phase transition to collective motion in some swarming systems, such as the Vicsek model, and that the properties of this transition are determined by the number of states (discrete heading directions) that can be accessed by each agent. PMID:27627342

  5. Regret and adaptive decision making in young children.

    PubMed

    O'Connor, Eimear; McCormack, Teresa; Beck, Sarah R; Feeney, Aidan

    2015-07-01

    In line with the claim that regret plays a role in decision making, O'Connor, McCormack, and Feeney (Child Development, 85 (2014) 1995-2010) found that children who reported feeling sadder on discovering they had made a non-optimal choice were more likely to make a different choice the next time around. We examined two issues of interpretation regarding this finding: whether the emotion measured was indeed regret and whether it was the experience of this emotion, rather than the ability to anticipate it, that affected decision making. To address the first issue, we varied the degree to which children aged 6 or 7 years were responsible for an outcome, assuming that responsibility is a necessary condition for regret. The second issue was addressed by examining whether children could accurately anticipate that they would feel worse on discovering they had made a non-optimal choice. Children were more likely to feel sad if they were responsible for the outcome; however, even if they were not responsible, children were more likely than chance to report feeling sadder. Moreover, across all conditions, feeling sadder was associated with making a better subsequent choice. In a separate task, we demonstrated that children of this age cannot accurately anticipate feeling sadder on discovering that they had not made the best choice. These findings suggest that although children may feel regret following a non-optimal choice, even if they were not responsible for an outcome, they may experience another negative emotion such as frustration. Experiencing either of these emotions seems to be sufficient to support better decision making.

  6. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  7. Response-adaptive decision-theoretic trial design: operating characteristics and ethics.

    PubMed

    Lipsky, Ari M; Lewis, Roger J

    2013-09-20

    Adaptive randomization is used in clinical trials to increase statistical efficiency. In addition, some clinicians and researchers believe that using adaptive randomization leads necessarily to more ethical treatment of subjects in a trial. We develop Bayesian, decision-theoretic, clinical trial designs with response-adaptive randomization and a primary goal of estimating treatment effect and then contrast these designs with designs that also include in their loss function a cost for poor subject outcome. When the loss function did not incorporate a cost for poor subject outcome, the gains in efficiency from response-adaptive randomization were accompanied by ethically concerning subject allocations. Conversely, including a cost for poor subject outcome demonstrated a more acceptable balance between the competing needs in the trial. A subsequent, parallel set of trials designed to control explicitly types I and II error rates showed that much of the improvement achieved through modification of the loss function was essentially negated. Therefore, gains in efficiency from the use of a decision-theoretic, response-adaptive design using adaptive randomization may only be assumed to apply to those goals that are explicitly included in the loss function. Trial goals, including ethical ones, which do not appear in the loss function, are ignored and may even be compromised; it is thus inappropriate to assume that all adaptive trials are necessarily more ethical. Controlling types I and II error rates largely negates the benefit of including competing needs in favor of the goal of parameter estimation.

  8. Lost in Search: (Mal-)Adaptation to Probabilistic Decision Environments in Children and Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Betsch, Tilmann; Lehmann, Anne; Lindow, Stefanie; Lang, Anna; Schoemann, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Adaptive decision making in probabilistic environments requires individuals to use probabilities as weights in predecisional information searches and/or when making subsequent choices. Within a child-friendly computerized environment (Mousekids), we tracked 205 children's (105 children 5-6 years of age and 100 children 9-10 years of age) and 103…

  9. Quantifying the Value of Downscaled Climate Model Information for Adaptation Decisions: When is Downscaling a Smart Decision?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terando, A. J.; Wootten, A.; Eaton, M. J.; Runge, M. C.; Littell, J. S.; Bryan, A. M.; Carter, S. L.

    2015-12-01

    Two types of decisions face society with respect to anthropogenic climate change: (1) whether to enact a global greenhouse gas abatement policy, and (2) how to adapt to the local consequences of current and future climatic changes. The practice of downscaling global climate models (GCMs) is often used to address (2) because GCMs do not resolve key features that will mediate global climate change at the local scale. In response, the development of downscaling techniques and models has accelerated to aid decision makers seeking adaptation guidance. However, quantifiable estimates of the value of information are difficult to obtain, particularly in decision contexts characterized by deep uncertainty and low system-controllability. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify the additional value that decision makers could expect if research investments are directed towards developing new downscaled climate projections. As a proof of concept we focus on a real-world management problem: whether to undertake assisted migration for an endangered tropical avian species. We also take advantage of recently published multivariate methods that account for three vexing issues in climate impacts modeling: maximizing climate model quality information, accounting for model dependence in ensembles of opportunity, and deriving probabilistic projections. We expand on these global methods by including regional (Caribbean Basin) and local (Puerto Rico) domains. In the local domain, we test whether a high resolution (2km) dynamically downscaled GCM reduces the multivariate error estimate compared to the original coarse-scale GCM. Initial tests show little difference between the downscaled and original GCM multivariate error. When propagated through to a species population model, the Value of Information analysis indicates that the expected utility that would accrue to the manager (and species) if this downscaling were completed may not justify the cost compared to alternative actions.

  10. Using social network analysis to evaluate health-related adaptation decision-making in Cambodia.

    PubMed

    Bowen, Kathryn J; Alexander, Damon; Miller, Fiona; Dany, Va

    2014-01-30

    Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or 'shadow networks') in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance 'map' in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes.

  11. Using social network analysis to evaluate health-related adaptation decision-making in Cambodia.

    PubMed

    Bowen, Kathryn J; Alexander, Damon; Miller, Fiona; Dany, Va

    2014-02-01

    Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or 'shadow networks') in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance 'map' in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes. PMID:24487452

  12. Using Social Network Analysis to Evaluate Health-Related Adaptation Decision-Making in Cambodia

    PubMed Central

    Bowen, Kathryn J.; Alexander, Damon; Miller, Fiona; Dany, Va

    2014-01-01

    Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or ‘shadow networks’) in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance ‘map’ in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes. PMID:24487452

  13. Application of Adaptive Decision Aiding Systems to Computer-Assisted Instruction. Final Report, January-December 1974.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    May, Donald M.; And Others

    The minicomputer-based Computerized Diagnostic and Decision Training (CDDT) system described combines the principles of artificial intelligence, decision theory, and adaptive computer assisted instruction for training in electronic troubleshooting. The system incorporates an adaptive computer program which learns the student's diagnostic and…

  14. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-05-01

    There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from basic assumptions in the economic analysis and the hydrological model, but also from the projection of future societies to local climate change impacts and suitable adaptation options. This presents a challenge to decision makers when trying to identify robust measures. We present an integrated uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver of risk changes over time. The overall uncertainty is then attributed to six bulk processes: climate change impact, urban rainfall-runoff processes, stage-depth functions, unit cost of repair, cost of adaptation measures, and discount rate. We apply the approach on an urban hydrological catchment in Odense, Denmark, and find that the uncertainty on the climate change impact appears to have the least influence on the net present value of the studied adaptation measures-. This does not imply that the climate change impact is not important, but that the uncertainties are not dominating when deciding on action or in-action. We then consider the uncertainty related to choosing between adaptation options given that a decision of action has been taken. In this case the major part of the

  15. Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; Loschiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

    2013-10-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information.

  16. A two-neuron system for adaptive goal-directed decision-making in Lymnaea

    PubMed Central

    Crossley, Michael; Staras, Kevin; Kemenes, György

    2016-01-01

    During goal-directed decision-making, animals must integrate information from the external environment and their internal state to maximize resource localization while minimizing energy expenditure. How this complex problem is solved by the nervous system remains poorly understood. Here, using a combined behavioural and neurophysiological approach, we demonstrate that the mollusc Lymnaea performs a sophisticated form of decision-making during food-searching behaviour, using a core system consisting of just two neuron types. The first reports the presence of food and the second encodes motivational state acting as a gain controller for adaptive behaviour in the absence of food. Using an in vitro analogue of the decision-making process, we show that the system employs an energy management strategy, switching between a low- and high-use mode depending on the outcome of the decision. Our study reveals a parsimonious mechanism that drives a complex decision-making process via regulation of levels of tonic inhibition and phasic excitation. PMID:27257106

  17. A two-neuron system for adaptive goal-directed decision-making in Lymnaea.

    PubMed

    Crossley, Michael; Staras, Kevin; Kemenes, György

    2016-01-01

    During goal-directed decision-making, animals must integrate information from the external environment and their internal state to maximize resource localization while minimizing energy expenditure. How this complex problem is solved by the nervous system remains poorly understood. Here, using a combined behavioural and neurophysiological approach, we demonstrate that the mollusc Lymnaea performs a sophisticated form of decision-making during food-searching behaviour, using a core system consisting of just two neuron types. The first reports the presence of food and the second encodes motivational state acting as a gain controller for adaptive behaviour in the absence of food. Using an in vitro analogue of the decision-making process, we show that the system employs an energy management strategy, switching between a low- and high-use mode depending on the outcome of the decision. Our study reveals a parsimonious mechanism that drives a complex decision-making process via regulation of levels of tonic inhibition and phasic excitation. PMID:27257106

  18. Adaptive decision systems with extended learning for deployment in partially exposed environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dasarathy, Belur V.

    1995-05-01

    The design and development of decision systems capable of adaptively learning in the operational environment is presented. Innovative adaptive learning concepts and methodologies are offered that are designed for enhancing the performance of decision systems, such as automatic target recognition systems, wherein robustness of performance is a significant issue. The fundamental concept underlying this design is that of learning in partially exposed environments, wherein, at the start, the system is not necessarily aware of all the pattern classes that may be encountered in the future phase of operations. The decision system is based on a variant to the widely popular nearest-neighbor concept. Several stages of sophistication of the system design are presented. The potential problem of increase in computational loads is addressed in detail by exploring the benefits of employing the recently proposed concept of minimal consistent set. The effectiveness of the system design is experimentally illustrated using two data sets, the now classical IRIS data and some real-world TV image data.

  19. The diapause decision as a cascade switch for adaptive developmental plasticity in body mass in a butterfly.

    PubMed

    Gotthard, Karl; Berger, D

    2010-06-01

    Switch-induced developmental plasticity, such as the diapause decision in insects, is a major form of adaptation to variable environments. As individuals that follow alternative developmental pathways will experience different selective environments the diapause decision may evolve to a cascade switch that induces additional adaptive developmental differences downstream of the diapause decision. Here, we show that individuals following alternative developmental pathways in a Swedish population of the butterfly, Pararge aegeria, display differential optimization of adult body mass as a likely response to predictable differences in thermal conditions during reproduction. In a more northern population where this type of selection is absent no similar difference in adult mass among pathways was found. We conclude that the diapause decision in the southern population appears to act as a cascade switch, coordinating development downstream of the diapause decision, to produce adult phenotypes adapted to the typical thermal conditions of their expected reproductive period.

  20. Translating Knowledge into Action: Supporting Adaptation in Australia's Coastal Zone through Information Provision and Decision Support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palutikof, J. P.; Rissik, D.; Tonmoy, F. N.; Boulter, S.

    2015-12-01

    Adaptation to risks from climate change and sea-level rise is particularly important in Australia, where 70% of the population live in major coastal cities and 85% within 50km of the coast. Adaptation activity focuses at local government level and, in the absence of strong leadership from central government, the extent to which local councils have taken action to adapt is highly variable across the nation. Also, although a number of councils have proceeded as far as identifying their exposure to risk and considering adaptation options, this fails to translate into action. A principal reason for this is concern over the response from coastal residents to actions which may affect property values, and fear of litigation. A project is underway to support councils to understand their risks, evaluate adaptation options and proceed to action. This support will consist of a three-pronged framework: provision of information, a tool to support decision-making, and a community forum. Delivery involves research to understand the barriers to adaptation and how these may be overcome, optimal methods for delivery of information, and the information needs of organizations, action-takers and communities. The presentation will focus on the results of consultation undertaken to understand users' information needs around content and delivery, and how understanding of these needs has translated into design of the framework. A strongly preference was expressed to learn from peers, and a challenge for the framework is to understand how to inject adaptation knowledge which is up-to-date and accurate into peer-to-peer conversations. The community forum is one mechanism to achieve this. The basic structure and delivery mechanisms of the framework are shown in the attached.

  1. Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention.

    PubMed

    Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Gern, Lise; Michel, Pascal; Ravel, André; Hongoh, Valérie; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Milord, François; Bélanger, Denise

    2015-01-01

    Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD) can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or other vector

  2. Impacts of Agricultural Decision Making and Adaptive Management on Food Security in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caylor, K. K.; Evans, T. P.; Estes, L. D.; Sheffield, J.; Plale, B. A.; Attari, S.

    2014-12-01

    Despite massive investments in food aid, agricultural extension, and seed/fertilizer subsidies, nearly 1 billion people in the developing world are food insecure and vulnerable to climate variability. Sub-Saharan Africa is most vulnerable, as approximately 25% of its people are undernourished (FAO/FAOSTAT 2013) and 96% of its cropland is rainfed (FAO 2002). The ability of subsistence farmers to respond to changes in water availability involves both inter-and intra-seasonal adaptation. Adaptive capacity diminishes over the season as decisions are made, resources are used, and the set of possible futures becomes restricted. Assessing the intra-seasonal adaptive capacity of smallholders requires integrating physical models of hydrological and agricultural dynamics with farmer decision-making at fine temporal (e.g. weekly) and spatial (e.g. crop field) scales. However, there is an intrinsic challenge to modeling the dynamics of these sociohydrologic systems, because important and uncharacterized spatial and temporal scale mismatches exist between the level at which the water resource is best understood and the level at which human dynamics are more predictable. For example, the skill of current process-based land surface models is primarily confined to short-term (daily to weekly), national- to regional-scale assessments, and reliable agricultural yield estimates and forecasts for small-scale farming systems remain elusive. In contrast, process-based social science modeling has focused on agent-based approaches that generate fine-scale (individual to community) dynamics over rather coarse time scales (yearly to decadal). A major obstacle to addressing this mismatch is the fundamental fact that the highest skill domain of one framework is essentially unpredictable in the other. We present a coupled sociohydrological observation framework designed to addressing this gap, and demonstrate its utility to understand relationships between climate variability, decision making

  3. Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention

    PubMed Central

    Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Gern, Lise; Michel, Pascal; Ravel, André; Hongoh, Valérie; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Milord, François; Bélanger, Denise

    2015-01-01

    Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD) can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or other vector

  4. Monitoring in the context of structured decision-making and adaptive management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lyons, J.E.; Runge, M.C.; Laskowski, H.P.; Kendall, W.L.

    2008-01-01

    In a natural resource management setting, monitoring is a crucial component of an informed process for making decisions, and monitoring design should be driven by the decision context and associated uncertainties. Monitoring itself can play >3 roles. First, it is important for state-dependent decision-making, as when managers need to know the system state before deciding on the appropriate course of action during the ensuing management cycle. Second, monitoring is critical for evaluating the effectiveness of management actions relative to objectives. Third, in an adaptive management setting, monitoring provides the feedback loop for learning about the system; learning is sought not for its own sake but primarily to better achieve management objectives. In this case, monitoring should be designed to reduce the critical uncertainties in models of the managed system. The United States Geological Survey and United States Fish and Wildlife Service are conducting a large-scale management experiment on 23 National Wildlife Refuges across the Northeast and Midwest Regions. The primary management objective is to provide habitat for migratory waterbirds, particularly during migration, using water-level manipulations in managed wetlands. Key uncertainties are related to the potential trade-offs created by management for a specific waterbird guild (e.g., migratory shorebirds) and the response of waterbirds, plant communities, and invertebrates to specific experimental hydroperiods. We reviewed the monitoring program associated with this study, and the ways that specific observations fill >1 of the roles identified above. We used observations from our monitoring to improve state-dependent decisions to control undesired plants, to evaluate management performance relative to shallow-water habitat objectives, and to evaluate potential trade-offs between waterfowl and shorebird habitat management. With limited staff and budgets, management agencies need efficient monitoring

  5. Functional Assessment of Genetic Variants with Outcomes Adapted to Clinical Decision-Making

    PubMed Central

    Thouvenot, Pierre; Ben Yamin, Barbara; Fourrière, Lou; Lescure, Aurianne; Boudier, Thomas; Del Nery, Elaine; Chauchereau, Anne; Goldgar, David E.; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Nicolas, Alain; Millot, Gaël A.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the medical effect of an ever-growing number of human variants detected is a long term challenge in genetic counseling. Functional assays, based on in vitro or in vivo evaluations of the variant effects, provide essential information, but they require robust statistical validation, as well as adapted outputs, to be implemented in the clinical decision-making process. Here, we assessed 25 pathogenic and 15 neutral missense variants of the BRCA1 breast/ovarian cancer susceptibility gene in four BRCA1 functional assays. Next, we developed a novel approach that refines the variant ranking in these functional assays. Lastly, we developed a computational system that provides a probabilistic classification of variants, adapted to clinical interpretation. Using this system, the best functional assay exhibits a variant classification accuracy estimated at 93%. Additional theoretical simulations highlight the benefit of this ready-to-use system in the classification of variants after functional assessment, which should facilitate the consideration of functional evidences in the decision-making process after genetic testing. Finally, we demonstrate the versatility of the system with the classification of siRNAs tested for human cell growth inhibition in high throughput screening. PMID:27272900

  6. Cultural and Linguistic Adaptation of a Multimedia Colorectal Cancer Screening Decision Aid for Spanish Speaking Latinos

    PubMed Central

    Ko, Linda K.; Reuland, Daniel; Jolles, Monica; Clay, Rebecca; Pignone, Michael

    2014-01-01

    As the United States becomes more linguistically and culturally diverse, there is a need for effective health communication interventions that target diverse and most vulnerable populations. Latinos also have the lowest colorectal (CRC) screening rates of any ethnic group in the U.S. To address such disparities, health communication interventionists are often faced with the challenge to adapt existing interventions from English into Spanish in a way that retains essential elements of the original intervention while also addressing the linguistic needs and cultural perspectives of the target population. We describe the conceptual framework, context, rationale, methods, and findings of a formative research process used in creating a Spanish language version of an evidenced-based (English language) multimedia CRC screening decision aid. Our multi-step process included identification of essential elements of the existing intervention, literature review, assessment of the regional context and engagement of key stakeholders, and solicitation of direct input from target population. We integrated these findings in the creation of the new adapted intervention. We describe how we used this process to identify and integrate socio-cultural themes such as personalism (personalismo), familism (familismo), fear (miedo), embarrassment (verguenza), power distance (respeto), machismo, and trust (confianza) into the Spanish language decision aid. PMID:24328496

  7. Climate Change Adaptation Decision Making for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Palcacocha Lake in Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cuellar, A. D.; McKinney, D. C.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change has accelerated glacial retreat in high altitude glaciated regions of Peru leading to the growth and formation of glacier lakes. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) are sudden events triggered by an earthquake, avalanche into the lake or other shock that causes a sudden outflow of water. These floods are catastrophic because of their sudden onset, the difficulty predicting them, and enormous quantity of water and debris rapidly flooding downstream areas. Palcacocha Lake in the Peruvian Andes has experienced accelerated growth since it burst in 1941 and threatens the major city of Huaraz and surrounding communities. Since the 1941 flood stakeholders have advocated for projects to adapt to the increasing threat posed by Palcacocha Lake. Nonetheless, discussions surrounding projects for Palcacocha have not included a rigorous analysis of the potential consequences of a flood, probability of an event, or costs of mitigation projects. This work presents the first step to rationally analyze the risks posed by Palcacocha Lake and the various adaptation projects proposed. In this work the authors use decision analysis to asses proposed adaptation measures that would mitigate damage in downstream communities from a GLOF. We use an existing hydrodynamic model of the at-risk area to determine how adaptation projects will affect downstream flooding. Flood characteristics are used in the HEC-FIA software to estimate fatalities and injuries from an outburst flood, which we convert to monetary units using the value of a statistical life. We combine the monetary consequences of a GLOF with the cost of the proposed projects and a diffuse probability distribution for the likelihood of an event to estimate the expected cost of the adaptation plans. From this analysis we found that lowering the lake level by 15 meters has the least expected cost of any proposal despite uncertainty in the effect of lake lowering on flooding downstream.

  8. The Adaptability of Career Decision-Making Profiles: Associations with Self-Efficacy, Emotional Difficulties, and Decision Status

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Wagman-Rolnick, Halleli

    2013-01-01

    The present study investigated a new model for characterizing the way individuals make career decisions (career decision-making profiles [CDMP]). Using data from 285 students in a preacademic program, the present study assessed the association of the CDMP's dimensions with the Emotional and Personality-related Career decision-making…

  9. Facilitating adaptive management in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed through the use of online decision support tools

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mullinx, Cassandra; Phillips, Scott; Shenk, Kelly; Hearn, Paul; Devereux, Olivia

    2009-01-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is attempting to more strategically implement management actions to improve the health of the Nation’s largest estuary. In 2007 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) CBP office began a joint effort to develop a suite of Internetaccessible decision-support tools and to help meet the needs of CBP partners to improve water quality and habitat conditions in the Chesapeake Bay and its watersheds. An adaptive management framework is being used to provide a structured decision process for information and individual tools needed to implement and assess practices to improve the condition of the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. The Chesapeake Online Adaptive Support Toolkit (COAST) is a collection of web-based analytical tools and information, organized in an adaptive management framework, intended to aid decisionmakers in protecting and restoring the integrity of the Bay ecosystem. The initial version of COAST is focused on water quality issues. During early and mid- 2008, initial ideas for COAST were shared and discussed with various CBP partners and other potential user groups. At these meetings, test cases were selected to help improve understanding of the types of information and analytical functionality that would be most useful for specific partners’ needs. These discussions added considerable knowledge about the nature of decisionmaking for Federal, State, local and nongovernmental partners. Version 1.0 of COAST, released in early winter of 2008, will be further reviewed to determine improvements needed to address implementation and assessment of water quality practices. Future versions of COAST may address other aspects of ecosystem restoration, including restoration of habitat and living resources and maintaining watershed health.

  10. IMRT planning on adaptive volume structures--a decisive reduction in computational complexity.

    PubMed

    Scherrer, Alexander; Küfer, Karl-Heinz; Bortfeld, Thomas; Monz, Michael; Alonso, Fernando

    2005-05-01

    The objective of radiotherapy planning is to find a compromise between the contradictive goals of delivering a sufficiently high dose to the target volume while widely sparing critical structures. The search for such a compromise requires the computation of several plans, which mathematically means solving several optimization problems. In the case of intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) these problems are large-scale, hence the accumulated computational expense is very high. The adaptive clustering method presented in this paper overcomes this difficulty. The main idea is to use a preprocessed hierarchy of aggregated dose-volume information as a basis for individually adapted approximations of the original optimization problems. This leads to a decisively reduced computational expense: numerical experiments on several sets of real clinical data typically show computation times decreased by a factor of about 10. In contrast to earlier work in this field, this reduction in computational complexity will not lead to a loss in accuracy: the adaptive clustering method produces the optimum of the original optimization problem.

  11. Coastal Adaptation Planning for Sea Level Rise and Extremes: A Global Model for Adaptation Decision-making at the Local Level Given Uncertain Climate Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, D.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the potential economic and physical impacts of climate change on coastal resources involves evaluating a number of distinct adaptive responses. This paper presents a tool for such analysis, a spatially-disaggregated optimization model for adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge, the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM). This decision-making framework fills a gap between very detailed studies of specific locations and overly aggregate global analyses. While CIAM is global in scope, the optimal adaptation strategy is determined at the local level, evaluating over 12,000 coastal segments as described in the DIVA database (Vafeidis et al. 2006). The decision to pursue a given adaptation measure depends on local socioeconomic factors like income, population, and land values and how they develop over time, relative to the magnitude of potential coastal impacts, based on geophysical attributes like inundation zones and storm surge. For example, the model's decision to protect or retreat considers the costs of constructing and maintaining coastal defenses versus those of relocating people and capital to minimize damages from land inundation and coastal storms. Uncertain storm surge events are modeled with a generalized extreme value distribution calibrated to data on local surge extremes. Adaptation is optimized for the near-term outlook, in an "act then learn then act" framework that is repeated over the model time horizon. This framework allows the adaptation strategy to be flexibly updated, reflecting the process of iterative risk management. CIAM provides new estimates of the economic costs of SLR; moreover, these detailed results can be compactly represented in a set of adaptation and damage functions for use in integrated assessment models. Alongside the optimal result, CIAM evaluates suboptimal cases and finds that global costs could increase by an order of magnitude, illustrating the importance of adaptive capacity and coastal policy.

  12. Adaptive traffic management in cities--comparing decision-making methods.

    PubMed

    van den Elshout, Sef; Molenaar, Rinkje; Wester, Bart

    2014-08-01

    Traffic is the dominant source of air pollution in cities. We simulated 'adaptive traffic management' (temporary traffic interventions that are invoked based on preset conditions such as high ambient concentrations) aimed at reducing traffic related air pollution. We compared these results with the effect of permanent temporary traffic interventions (measures that are always invoked for a few hours, irrespective of other criteria). The potential impact of the traffic interventions was assessed using Black Carbon and NOx-concentration observations in a busy urban street in Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Results show that generic traffic information (counts, speed, composition) in combination with general knowledge about the atmospheric conditions, provide sufficient information for operational decision making. However, the results also show that the overall net benefits of temporary measures are very small. The impact of permanent measures such as lowering the traffic density during rush hours is higher than measures taken for short time periods when air pollution is high or expected to be high.

  13. Adaptive and selective seed abortion reveals complex conditional decision making in plants.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Katrin M; Soldaat, Leo L; Auge, Harald; Thulke, Hans-Hermann

    2014-03-01

    Behavior is traditionally attributed to animals only. Recently, evidence for plant behavior is accumulating, mostly from plant physiological studies. Here, we provide ecological evidence for complex plant behavior in the form of seed abortion decisions conditional on internal and external cues. We analyzed seed abortion patterns of barberry plants exposed to seed parasitism and different environmental conditions. Without abortion, parasite infestation of seeds can lead to loss of all seeds in a fruit. We statistically tested a series of null models with Monte Carlo simulations to establish selectivity and adaptiveness of the observed seed abortion patterns. Seed abortion was more frequent in parasitized fruits and fruits from dry habitats. Surprisingly, seed abortion occurred with significantly greater probability if there was a second intact seed in the fruit. This strategy provides a fitness benefit if abortion can prevent a sibling seed from coinfestation and if nonabortion of an infested but surviving single seed saves resources invested in the fruit coat. Ecological evidence for complex decision making in plants thus includes a structural memory (the second seed), simple reasoning (integration of inner and outer conditions), conditional behavior (abortion), and anticipation of future risks (seed predation). PMID:24561600

  14. CALM: Complex Adaptive System (CAS)-Based Decision Support for Enabling Organizational Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adler, Richard M.; Koehn, David J.

    Guiding organizations through transformational changes such as restructuring or adopting new technologies is a daunting task. Such changes generate workforce uncertainty, fear, and resistance, reducing morale, focus and performance. Conventional project management techniques fail to mitigate these disruptive effects, because social and individual changes are non-mechanistic, organic phenomena. CALM (for Change, Adaptation, Learning Model) is an innovative decision support system for enabling change based on CAS principles. CALM provides a low risk method for validating and refining change strategies that combines scenario planning techniques with "what-if" behavioral simulation. In essence, CALM "test drives" change strategies before rolling them out, allowing organizations to practice and learn from virtual rather than actual mistakes. This paper describes the CALM modeling methodology, including our metrics for measuring organizational readiness to respond to change and other major CALM scenario elements: prospective change strategies; alternate futures; and key situational dynamics. We then describe CALM's simulation engine for projecting scenario outcomes and its associated analytics. CALM's simulator unifies diverse behavioral simulation paradigms including: adaptive agents; system dynamics; Monte Carlo; event- and process-based techniques. CALM's embodiment of CAS dynamics helps organizations reduce risk and improve confidence and consistency in critical strategies for enabling transformations.

  15. Decision Support from Local Data: Creating Adaptive Order Menus from Past Clinician Behavior

    PubMed Central

    Klann, Jeffrey G.; Szolovits, Peter; Downs, Stephen; Schadow, Gunther

    2014-01-01

    Objective Reducing care variability through guidelines has significantly benefited patients. Nonetheless, guideline-based clinical decision support (CDS) systems are not widely implemented or used, are frequently out-of-date, and cannot address complex care for which guidelines do not exist. Here, we develop and evaluate a complementary approach - using Bayesian network (BN) learning to generate adaptive, context-specific treatment menus based on local order-entry data. These menus can be used as a draft for expert review, in order to minimize development time for local decision support content. This is in keeping with the vision outlined in the US Health Information Technology Strategic Plan, which describes a healthcare system that learns from itself. Materials and Methods We used the Greedy Equivalence Search algorithm to learn four 50-node domain-specific BNs from 11,344 encounters: abdominal pain in the emergency department, inpatient pregnancy, hypertension in the urgent visit clinic, and altered mental state in the intensive care unit. We developed a system to produce situation-specific, rank-ordered treatment menus from these networks. We evaluated this system with a hospital-simulation methodology and computed Area Under the Receiver-Operator Curve (AUC) and average menu position at time of selection. We also compared this system with a similar association-rule-mining approach. Results A short order menu on average contained the next order (weighted average length 3.91–5.83 items). Overall predictive ability was good: average AUC above 0.9 for 25% of order types and overall average AUC .714–.844 (depending on domain). However, AUC had high variance (.50–.99). Higher AUC correlated with tighter clusters and more connections in the graphs, indicating importance of appropriate contextual data. Comparison with an association rule mining approach showed similar performance for only the most common orders with dramatic divergence as orders are less

  16. Online adaptive decision fusion framework based on projections onto convex sets with application to wildfire detection in video

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Günay, Osman; Töreyin, Behcet Uǧur; Çetin, Ahmet Enis

    2011-07-01

    In this paper, an online adaptive decision fusion framework is developed for image analysis and computer vision applications. In this framework, it is assumed that the compound algorithm consists of several sub-algorithms, each of which yields its own decision as a real number centered around zero, representing the confidence level of that particular sub-algorithm. Decision values are linearly combined with weights that are updated online according to an active fusion method based on performing orthogonal projections onto convex sets describing sub-algorithms. It is assumed that there is an oracle, who is usually a human operator, providing feedback to the decision fusion method. A video-based wildfire detection system is developed to evaluate the performance of the algorithm in handling the problems where data arrives sequentially. In this case, the oracle is the security guard of the forest lookout tower verifying the decision of the combined algorithm. Simulation results are presented.

  17. Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy: Partnering with Decision-Makers in Climate Change Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, D.; Trainor, S.; Walsh, J.; Gerlach, C.

    2008-12-01

    The Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP; www.uaf.edu/accap) is one of several, NOAA funded, Regional Integrated Science and Policy (RISA) programs nation-wide (http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/). Our mission is to assess the socio-economic and biophysical impacts of climate variability in Alaska, make this information available to local and regional decision-makers, and improve the ability of Alaskans to adapt to a changing climate. We partner with the University of Alaska?s Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP; http://www.snap.uaf.edu/), state and local government, state and federal agencies, industry, and non-profit organizations to communicate accurate and up-to-date climate science and assist in formulating adaptation and mitigation plans. ACCAP and SNAP scientists are members of the Governor?s Climate Change Sub-Cabinet Adaptation and Mitigation Advisory and Technical Working Groups (http://www.climatechange.alaska.gov/), and apply their scientific expertise to provide down-scaled, state-wide maps of temperature and precipitation projections for these groups. An ACCAP scientist also serves as co-chair for the Fairbanks North Star Borough Climate Change Task Force, assisting this group as they work through the five-step model for climate change planning put forward by the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (http://www.investfairbanks.com/Taskforces/climate.php). ACCAP scientists work closely with federal resource managers in on a range of projects including: partnering with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to analyze hydrologic changes associated with climate change and related ecological impacts and wildlife management and development issues on Alaska?s North Slope; partnering with members of the Alaska Interagency Wildland Fire Coordinating Group in statistical modeling to predict seasonal wildfire activity and coordinate fire suppression resources state-wide; and working with Alaska Native Elders and

  18. Adaptive Management for Decision Making at the Program and Project Levels of the Missouri River Recovery Program

    SciTech Connect

    Thom, Ronald M.; Anderson, Michael G.; Tyre, Drew; Fleming, Craig A.

    2009-02-28

    The paper, “Adaptive Management: Background for Stakeholders in the Missouri River Recovery Program,” introduced the concept of adaptive management (AM), its principles and how they relate to one-another, how AM is applied, and challenges for its implementation. This companion paper describes how the AM principles were applied to specific management actions within the Missouri River Recovery Program to facilitate understanding, decision-making, and stakeholder engagement. For context, we begin with a brief synopsis of the Missouri River Recovery Program (MRRP) and the strategy for implementing adaptive management (AM) within the program; we finish with an example of AM in action within Phase I of the MRPP.

  19. The Role of Decision Support in Adapting to Climate Change: Findings from Three Place-based Regional Assessments

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report summarizes the methodologies and findings of three regional assessments and considers the role of decision support in assisting adaptation to climate change. Background. In conjunction with the US Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP’s) National Assessment of ...

  20. Informing Adaptation Decisions: What Do We Need to Know and What Do We Need to Do?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulwarty, R. S.; Webb, R. S.

    2014-12-01

    The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC Reports (SREX, AR5) and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for better information to support planning under changing rates of extremes event occurrence. This demand has focused on mechanisms used to respond to past variability and change, including, integrated resource management (watersheds, coasts), infrastructure design, information systems, technological optimization, financial risk management, and behavioral and institutional change. Climate inputs range from static site design statistics (return periods) to dynamic, emergent thresholds and transitions preceded by steep response curves and punctuated equilibria. Tradeoffs are evident in the use of risk-based anticipatory strategies vs. resilience measures. In such settings, annual decision calendars for operational requirements can confound adaptation expectations. Key knowledge assessment questions include: (1) How predictable are potential impacts of events in the context of other stressors, (2) how is action to anticipate such impacts informed, and (3) How often should criteria for "robustness" be reconsidered? To illustrate, we will discuss the climate information needs and uses for two areas of concern for both short and long-term risks (i) climate and disaster risk financing, and (ii) watershed management. The presentation will focus on the climate information needed for (1) improved monitoring, modeling and methods for understanding and analyzing exposure risks, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds across climate time and space scales, (4) embedding annual decision calendars in the context of longer-term risk management, (5) gaming experiments to show the net benefits of new information. We will conclude with a discussion of the essential climate variables needed to implement services-delivery and development efforts such

  1. An adaptive decision framework for the conservation of a threatened plant

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moore, Clinton T.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Shea, Katriona; Lah, Kristopher J.; McKenzie, Paul M.; Ball, Lianne C.; Runge, Michael C.; Alexander, Helen M.

    2011-01-01

    Mead's milkweed Asclepias meadii, a long-lived perennial herb of tallgrass prairie and glade communities of the central United States, is a species designated as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Challenges to its successful management include the facts that much about its life history is unknown, its age at reproductive maturity is very advanced, certain life stages are practically unobservable, its productivity is responsive to unpredictable environmental events, and most of the known populations occur on private lands unprotected by any legal conservation instrument. One critical source of biological uncertainty is the degree to which fire promotes growth and reproductive response in the plant. To aid in its management, we developed a prototype population-level state-dependent decision-making framework that explicitly accounts for this uncertainty and for uncertainties related to stochastic environmental effects and vital rates. To parameterize the decision model, we used estimates found in the literature, and we analyzed data from a long-term monitoring program where fates of individual plants were observed through time. We demonstrate that different optimal courses of action are followed according to how one believes that fire influences reproductive response, and we show that the action taken for certain population states is informative for resolving uncertainty about competing beliefs regarding the effect of fire. We advocate the use of a model-predictive approach for the management of rare populations, particularly when management uncertainty is profound. Over time, an adaptive management approach should reduce uncertainty and improve management performance as predictions of management outcome generated under competing models are continually informed and updated by monitoring data.

  2. Usability Testing and Adaptation of the Pediatric Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Clinical Decision Support Tool

    PubMed Central

    Furberg, Robert D; Bagwell, Jacqueline E; LaBresh, Kenneth A

    2016-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is 1 of the leading causes of death, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted years of life lost worldwide. CVD prevention for children and teens is needed, as CVD risk factors and behaviors beginning in youth contribute to CVD development. In 2012, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute released their “Integrated Guidelines for Cardiovascular Health and Risk Reduction in Children and Adolescents” for clinicians, describing CVD risk factors they should address with patients at primary care preventative visits. However, uptake of new guidelines is slow. Clinical decision support (CDS) tools can improve guideline uptake. In this paper, we describe our process of testing and adapting a CDS tool to help clinicians evaluate patient risk, recommend behaviors to prevent development of risk, and complete complex calculations to determine appropriate interventions as recommended by the guidelines, using a user-centered design approach. Objective The objective of the study was to assess the usability of a pediatric CVD risk factor tool by clinicians. Methods The tool was tested using one-on-one in-person testing and a “think aloud” approach with 5 clinicians and by using the tool in clinical practice along with formal usability metrics with 14 pediatricians. Thematic analysis of the data from the in-person testing and clinical practice testing identified suggestions for change in 3 major areas: user experience, content refinement, and technical deployment. Descriptive statistical techniques were employed to summarize users’ overall experience with the tool. Results Data from testers showed that general reactions toward the CDS tool were positive. Clinical practice testers suggested revisions to make the application more user-friendly, especially for clinicians using the application on the iPhone, and called for refining recommendations to be more succinct and better tailored to the patient. Tester feedback was

  3. [Scale of conflict in health care decision-making: an instrument adapted and validated for the Portuguese language].

    PubMed

    Martinho, Maria Júlia Costa Marques; da Silva, Martins Maria Manuela Ferreira Pereira; Angelo, Margareth

    2013-06-01

    The different options available to patients in the health environment now are implicated in increasingly difficult processes of decision-making, and may trigger conflict about them. This study had as its purpose, to develop an instrument that enabled us to know about this variable. Therefore, we decided to effect a transcultural adaptation and evaluation of psychometric properties of the Portuguese version of the Decisional Conflict Scale, which seeks information about decision-making and the factors that influence the choices made. The sample consisted of 521 nursing students, with a focus on decision-making regarding the flu syndrome. The results obtained on the reliability tests showed good internal consistency for all items (Cronbach a=0.94). The psychometric study allowed us to affirm that the Portuguese version of the Decisional Conflict Scale, which we call Scale of Conflicts in Decision-Making in Health (ECTDS), was a reliable and valid instrument.

  4. Adapting the SLIM diabetes prevention intervention to a Dutch real-life setting: joint decision making by science and practice

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Although many evidence-based diabetes prevention interventions exist, they are not easily applicable in real-life settings. Moreover, there is a lack of examples which describe the adaptation process of these interventions to practice. In this paper we present an example of such an adaptation. We adapted the SLIM (Study on Lifestyle intervention and Impaired glucose tolerance Maastricht) diabetes prevention intervention to a Dutch real-life setting, in a joint decision making process of intervention developers and local health care professionals. Methods We used 3 adaptation steps in accordance with current adaptation frameworks. In the first step, the elements of the SLIM intervention were identified. In the second step, these elements were judged for their applicability in a real-life setting. In the third step, adaptations were proposed and discussed for those elements which were deemed not applicable. Participants invited for this process included intervention developers and local health care professionals (n=19). Results In the first adaptation step, a total of 22 intervention elements were identified. In the second step, 12 of these 22 intervention elements were judged as inapplicable. In the third step, a consensus was achieved for the adaptations of all 12 elements. The adapted elements were in the following categories: target population, techniques, intensity, delivery mode, materials, organisational structure, and political and financial conditions. The adaptations either lay in changing the SLIM protocol (6 elements) or the real-life working procedures (1 element), or a combination of both (4 elements). Conclusions The positive result of this study is that a consensus was achieved within a relatively short time period (nine months) between the developers of the SLIM intervention and local health care professionals on the adaptations needed to make SLIM applicable in a Dutch real-life setting. Our example shows that it is possible to combine

  5. Usability of clinical decision support system as a facilitator for learning the assistive technology adaptation process.

    PubMed

    Danial-Saad, Alexandra; Kuflik, Tsvi; Weiss, Patrice L Tamar; Schreuer, Naomi

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the usability of Ontology Supported Computerized Assistive Technology Recommender (OSCAR), a Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) for the assistive technology adaptation process, its impact on learning the matching process, and to determine the relationship between its usability and learnability. Two groups of expert and novice clinicians (total, n = 26) took part in this study. Each group filled out system usability scale (SUS) to evaluate OSCAR's usability. The novice group completed a learning questionnaire to assess OSCAR's effect on their ability to learn the matching process. Both groups rated OSCAR's usability as "very good", (M [SUS] = 80.7, SD = 11.6, median = 83.7) by the novices, and (M [SUS] = 81.2, SD = 6.8, median = 81.2) by the experts. The Mann-Whitney results indicated that no significant differences were found between the expert and novice groups in terms of OSCAR's usability. A significant positive correlation existed between the usability of OSCAR and the ability to learn the adaptation process (rs = 0.46, p = 0.04). Usability is an important factor in the acceptance of a system. The successful application of user-centered design principles during the development of OSCAR may serve as a case study that models the significant elements to be considered, theoretically and practically in developing other systems. Implications for Rehabilitation Creating a CDSS with a focus on its usability is an important factor for its acceptance by its users. Successful usability outcomes can impact the learning process of the subject matter in general, and the AT prescription process in particular. The successful application of User-Centered Design principles during the development of OSCAR may serve as a case study that models the significant elements to be considered, theoretically and practically. The study emphasizes the importance of close collaboration between the developers and

  6. The psychological and neurological bases of leader self-complexity and effects on adaptive decision-making.

    PubMed

    Hannah, Sean T; Balthazard, Pierre A; Waldman, David A; Jennings, Peter L; Thatcher, Robert W

    2013-05-01

    Complex contexts and environments require leaders to be highly adaptive and to adjust their behavioral responses to meet diverse role demands. Such adaptability may be contingent upon leaders having requisite complexity to facilitate effectiveness across a range of roles. However, there exists little empirical understanding of the etiology or basis of leader complexity. To this end, we conceptualized a model of leader self-complexity that is inclusive of both the mind (the complexity of leaders' self-concepts) and the brain (the neuroscientific basis for complex leadership). We derived psychometric and neurologically based measures, the latter based on quantitative electroencephalogram (qEEG) profiles of leader self-complexity, and tested their separate effects on the adaptive decision-making of 103 military leaders. Results demonstrated that both measures accounted for unique variance in external ratings of adaptive decision-making. We discuss how these findings provide a deeper understanding of the latent and dynamic mechanisms that underpin leaders' self-complexity and their adaptability.

  7. The psychological and neurological bases of leader self-complexity and effects on adaptive decision-making.

    PubMed

    Hannah, Sean T; Balthazard, Pierre A; Waldman, David A; Jennings, Peter L; Thatcher, Robert W

    2013-05-01

    Complex contexts and environments require leaders to be highly adaptive and to adjust their behavioral responses to meet diverse role demands. Such adaptability may be contingent upon leaders having requisite complexity to facilitate effectiveness across a range of roles. However, there exists little empirical understanding of the etiology or basis of leader complexity. To this end, we conceptualized a model of leader self-complexity that is inclusive of both the mind (the complexity of leaders' self-concepts) and the brain (the neuroscientific basis for complex leadership). We derived psychometric and neurologically based measures, the latter based on quantitative electroencephalogram (qEEG) profiles of leader self-complexity, and tested their separate effects on the adaptive decision-making of 103 military leaders. Results demonstrated that both measures accounted for unique variance in external ratings of adaptive decision-making. We discuss how these findings provide a deeper understanding of the latent and dynamic mechanisms that underpin leaders' self-complexity and their adaptability. PMID:23544481

  8. Supporting adaptation decisions to address climate related impacts and hazards in the Caribbean (the CARIWIG project)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burton, Aidan

    2015-04-01

    Managers and policy makers from regional and national institutions in the Caribbean require knowledge of the likely impacts and hazards arising from the present and future climate that are specific to their responsibility and geographical range, and relevant to their planning time-horizons. Knowledge, experience and the political support to develop appropriate adaptation strategies are also required. However, the climate information available for the region is of limited use as: observational records are intermittent and typically of short duration; climate model projections of the weather suffer from scale and bias issues; and statistical downscaling to provide locally relevant unbiased climate change information remains sporadic. Tropical cyclone activity is a considerable sporadic hazard in the region and yet related weather information is limited to historic events. Further, there is a lack of guidance for managers and policy makers operating with very limited resources to utilize such information within their remit. The CARIWIG project (June 2012 - May 2015) will be presented, reflecting on stakeholder impact, best practice and lessons learned. This project seeks to address the climate service needs of the Caribbean region through a combination of capacity building and improved provision of climate information services. An initial workshop with regional-scale stakeholders initiated a dialogue to develop a realistic shared vision of the needed information services which could be provided by the project. Capacity building is then achieved on a number of levels: knowledge and expertise sharing between project partners; raising understanding and knowledge of resources that support national and regional institutions' adaptation decisions; developing case studies in key sectors to test and demonstrate the information services; training for stakeholder technical staff in the use of the provided services; the development of a support network within and out

  9. Decision support for hospital bed management using adaptable individual length of stay estimations and shared resources

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Elective patient admission and assignment planning is an important task of the strategic and operational management of a hospital and early on became a central topic of clinical operations research. The management of hospital beds is an important subtask. Various approaches have been proposed, involving the computation of efficient assignments with regard to the patients’ condition, the necessity of the treatment, and the patients’ preferences. However, these approaches are mostly based on static, unadaptable estimates of the length of stay and, thus, do not take into account the uncertainty of the patient’s recovery. Furthermore, the effect of aggregated bed capacities have not been investigated in this context. Computer supported bed management, combining an adaptable length of stay estimation with the treatment of shared resources (aggregated bed capacities) has not yet been sufficiently investigated. The aim of our work is: 1) to define a cost function for patient admission taking into account adaptable length of stay estimations and aggregated resources, 2) to define a mathematical program formally modeling the assignment problem and an architecture for decision support, 3) to investigate four algorithmic methodologies addressing the assignment problem and one base-line approach, and 4) to evaluate these methodologies w.r.t. cost outcome, performance, and dismissal ratio. Methods The expected free ward capacity is calculated based on individual length of stay estimates, introducing Bernoulli distributed random variables for the ward occupation states and approximating the probability densities. The assignment problem is represented as a binary integer program. Four strategies for solving the problem are applied and compared: an exact approach, using the mixed integer programming solver SCIP; and three heuristic strategies, namely the longest expected processing time, the shortest expected processing time, and random choice. A baseline approach

  10. The Search for Relevant Climate Change Information to Support Adaptation Decision Makers: Lessons from Reductionism, Emergence and the Past (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stainforth, D.; Harrison, S.; Smith, L. A.

    2009-12-01

    The reality of anthropogenic climate change is founded on well understood scientific principles and is now widely accepted. The need for international efforts to limit the extent of future changes in climate - climate change mitigation - is therefore clear. Since anthropogenic climate change is well underway, however, and the planet is committed to further changes based on past emissions alone, there will certainly be a need for global society to adapt to the consequences. The physical sciences are increasingly being looked to as sources of information and guidance on adaptation policy and decision making. Unlike mitigation efforts such decisions generally require information on local or regional scales. What is the source of such information? How can we tell when it is robust and fit for the purpose of supporting a specific decision? The availability of rapidly increasing computational resources has led to a steady increase in the resolution of global climate models and of embedded regional climate models. They are approaching a point where they can provide data at a resolution which may be usable in adaptation decision support. Yet models are not equivalent to reality and model errors are significant even at the global scale. By contrast scientific understanding of climatic processes now and in the past can provide information about plausible responses which are more qualitative but may be equally useful. This talk will focus on the relative roles of fundamentally reductionist, model approaches with alternatives based on observations and process understanding. The latter, although more qualitative, are able to inform us about emergent properties; properties which may be difficult or impossible to reproduce within a reductionist paradigm. The contrast between emergent and reductionist approaches has a long history in the physical sciences; a history which provides valuable lessons for the relationship between climate science and societal / policy decisions. Here

  11. Multi-disciplinary assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture to support adaptation decision making in developing countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

    2016-04-01

    Many existing climate change impact studies, carried out by academic researchers, are disconnected from decision making processes of stakeholders. On the other hand many climate change adaptation projects in developing countries lack a solid evidence base of current and future climate impacts as well as vulnerabilities assessment at different scales. In order to fill this information gap, FAO has developed and implemented a tool "MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change)" in several developing countries such as Morocco, the Philippines and Peru, and recently in Malawi and Zambia. MOSAICC employs a multi-disciplinary assessment approach to addressing climate change impacts and adaptation planning in the agriculture and food security sectors, and integrates five components from different academic disciplines: 1. Statistical downscaling of climate change projections, 2. Yield simulation of major crops at regional scale under climate change, 3. Surface hydrology simulation model, 4. Macroeconomic model, and 5. Forestry model. Furthermore MOSAICC has been developed as a capacity development tool for the national scientists so that they can conduct the country assessment themselves, using their own data, and reflect the outcome into the national adaptation policies. The outputs are nation-wide coverage, disaggregated at sub-national level to support strategic planning, investments and decisions by national policy makers. MOSAICC is designed in such a way to promote stakeholders' participation and strengthen technical capacities in developing countries. The paper presents MOSAICC and projects that used MOSAICC as a tool with case studies from countries.

  12. Adaptive learning and decision-making under uncertainty by metaplastic synapses guided by a surprise detection system

    PubMed Central

    Iigaya, Kiyohito

    2016-01-01

    Recent experiments have shown that animals and humans have a remarkable ability to adapt their learning rate according to the volatility of the environment. Yet the neural mechanism responsible for such adaptive learning has remained unclear. To fill this gap, we investigated a biophysically inspired, metaplastic synaptic model within the context of a well-studied decision-making network, in which synapses can change their rate of plasticity in addition to their efficacy according to a reward-based learning rule. We found that our model, which assumes that synaptic plasticity is guided by a novel surprise detection system, captures a wide range of key experimental findings and performs as well as a Bayes optimal model, with remarkably little parameter tuning. Our results further demonstrate the computational power of synaptic plasticity, and provide insights into the circuit-level computation which underlies adaptive decision-making. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18073.001 PMID:27504806

  13. How to Cope with Bias While Adapting for Inclusion in Physical Education and Sports: A Judgment and Decision-Making Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hutzler, Yeshayahu; Bar-Eli, Michael

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to describe a theoretical model and practice examples of judgment and decision making bias within the context of inclusion in physical education and sports. After presenting the context of adapting for inclusion, the theoretical roots of judgment and decision are described, and are linked to the practice of physical…

  14. Horseshoe bats make adaptive prey-selection decisions, informed by echo cues.

    PubMed

    Koselj, Klemen; Schnitzler, Hans-Ulrich; Siemers, Björn M

    2011-10-22

    Foragers base their prey-selection decisions on the information acquired by the sensory systems. In bats that use echolocation to find prey in darkness, it is not clear whether the specialized diet, as sometimes found by faecal analysis, is a result of active decision-making or rather of biased sensory information. Here, we tested whether greater horseshoe bats decide economically when to attack a particular prey item and when not. This species is known to recognize different insects based on their wing-beat pattern imprinted in the echoes. We built a simulation of the natural foraging process in the laboratory, where the bats scanned for prey from a perch and, upon reaching the decision to attack, intercepted the prey in flight. To fully control echo information available to the bats and assure its unambiguity, we implemented computer-controlled propellers that produced echoes resembling those from natural insects of differing profitability. The bats monitored prey arrivals to sample the supply of prey categories in the environment and to inform foraging decisions. The bats adjusted selectivity for the more profitable prey to its inter-arrival intervals as predicted by foraging theory (an economic strategy known to benefit fitness). Moreover, unlike in previously studied vertebrates, foraging performance of horseshoe bats was not limited by costly rejections of the profitable prey. This calls for further research into the evolutionary selection pressures that sharpened the species's decision-making capacity.

  15. Horseshoe bats make adaptive prey-selection decisions, informed by echo cues

    PubMed Central

    Koselj, Klemen; Schnitzler, Hans-Ulrich; Siemers, Björn M.

    2011-01-01

    Foragers base their prey-selection decisions on the information acquired by the sensory systems. In bats that use echolocation to find prey in darkness, it is not clear whether the specialized diet, as sometimes found by faecal analysis, is a result of active decision-making or rather of biased sensory information. Here, we tested whether greater horseshoe bats decide economically when to attack a particular prey item and when not. This species is known to recognize different insects based on their wing-beat pattern imprinted in the echoes. We built a simulation of the natural foraging process in the laboratory, where the bats scanned for prey from a perch and, upon reaching the decision to attack, intercepted the prey in flight. To fully control echo information available to the bats and assure its unambiguity, we implemented computer-controlled propellers that produced echoes resembling those from natural insects of differing profitability. The bats monitored prey arrivals to sample the supply of prey categories in the environment and to inform foraging decisions. The bats adjusted selectivity for the more profitable prey to its inter-arrival intervals as predicted by foraging theory (an economic strategy known to benefit fitness). Moreover, unlike in previously studied vertebrates, foraging performance of horseshoe bats was not limited by costly rejections of the profitable prey. This calls for further research into the evolutionary selection pressures that sharpened the species's decision-making capacity. PMID:21367788

  16. A Novel Clinical Decision Support System Using Improved Adaptive Genetic Algorithm for the Assessment of Fetal Well-Being

    PubMed Central

    Jambek, Asral Bahari; Neoh, Siew-Chin

    2015-01-01

    A novel clinical decision support system is proposed in this paper for evaluating the fetal well-being from the cardiotocogram (CTG) dataset through an Improved Adaptive Genetic Algorithm (IAGA) and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM). IAGA employs a new scaling technique (called sigma scaling) to avoid premature convergence and applies adaptive crossover and mutation techniques with masking concepts to enhance population diversity. Also, this search algorithm utilizes three different fitness functions (two single objective fitness functions and multi-objective fitness function) to assess its performance. The classification results unfold that promising classification accuracy of 94% is obtained with an optimal feature subset using IAGA. Also, the classification results are compared with those of other Feature Reduction techniques to substantiate its exhaustive search towards the global optimum. Besides, five other benchmark datasets are used to gauge the strength of the proposed IAGA algorithm. PMID:25793009

  17. Adaptation for Planting and Irrigation Decisions to Changing Monsoon Regime in Northeast India: Risk-based Hydro-economic Optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, T.; Cai, X.

    2013-12-01

    Delay in onset of Indian summer monsoon becomes increasingly frequent. Delayed monsoon and occasional monsoon failures seriously affect agricultural production in the northeast as well as other parts of India. In the Vaishali district of the Bihar State, Monsoon rainfall is very skewed and erratic, often concentrating in shorter durations. Farmers in Vaishali reported that delayed Monsoon affected paddy planting and, consequently delayed cropping cycle, putting crops under the risks of 'terminal heat.' Canal system in the district does not function due to lack of maintenance; irrigation relies almost entirely on groundwater. Many small farmers choose not to irrigate when monsoon onset is delayed due to high diesel price, leading to reduced production or even crop failure. Some farmers adapt to delayed onset of Monsoon by planting short-duration rice, which gives the flexibility for planting the next season crops. Other sporadic autonomous adaptation activities were observed as well, with various levels of success. Adaptation recommendations and effective policy interventions are much needed. To explore robust options to adapt to the changing Monsoon regime, we build a stochastic programming model to optimize revenues of farmer groups categorized by landholding size, subject to stochastic Monsoon onset and rainfall amount. Imperfect probabilistic long-range forecast is used to inform the model onset and rainfall amount probabilities; the 'skill' of the forecasting is measured using probabilities of correctly predicting events in the past derived through hindcasting. Crop production functions are determined using self-calibrating Positive Mathematical Programming approach. The stochastic programming model aims to emulate decision-making behaviors of representative farmer agents through making choices in adaptation, including crop mix, planting dates, irrigation, and use of weather information. A set of technological and policy intervention scenarios are tested

  18. Adapting a Driving Simulator to Study Pedestrians' Street-Crossing Decisions: A Feasibility Study.

    PubMed

    Jäger, M; Nyffeler, T; Müri, R; Mosimann, U P; Nef, T

    2015-01-01

    The decision when to cross a street safely is a challenging task that poses high demands on perception and cognition. Both can be affected by normal aging, neurodegenerative disorder, and brain injury, and there is an increasing interest in studying street-crossing decisions. In this article, we describe how driving simulators can be modified to study pedestrians' street-crossing decisions. The driving simulator's projection system and the virtual driving environment were used to present street-crossing scenarios to the participants. New sensors were added to measure when the test person starts to cross the street. Outcome measures were feasibility, usability, task performance, and visual exploration behavior, and were measured in 15 younger persons, 15 older persons, and 5 post-stroke patients. The experiments showed that the test is feasible and usable, and the selected difficulty level was appropriate. Significant differences in the number of crashes between young participants and patients (p = .001) as well as between healthy older participants and patients (p = .003) were found. When the approaching vehicle's speed is high, significant differences between younger and older participants were found as well (p = .038). Overall, the new test setup was well accepted, and we demonstrated that driving simulators can be used to study pedestrians' street-crossing decisions.

  19. Adapting a Driving Simulator to Study Pedestrians' Street-Crossing Decisions: A Feasibility Study.

    PubMed

    Jäger, M; Nyffeler, T; Müri, R; Mosimann, U P; Nef, T

    2015-01-01

    The decision when to cross a street safely is a challenging task that poses high demands on perception and cognition. Both can be affected by normal aging, neurodegenerative disorder, and brain injury, and there is an increasing interest in studying street-crossing decisions. In this article, we describe how driving simulators can be modified to study pedestrians' street-crossing decisions. The driving simulator's projection system and the virtual driving environment were used to present street-crossing scenarios to the participants. New sensors were added to measure when the test person starts to cross the street. Outcome measures were feasibility, usability, task performance, and visual exploration behavior, and were measured in 15 younger persons, 15 older persons, and 5 post-stroke patients. The experiments showed that the test is feasible and usable, and the selected difficulty level was appropriate. Significant differences in the number of crashes between young participants and patients (p = .001) as well as between healthy older participants and patients (p = .003) were found. When the approaching vehicle's speed is high, significant differences between younger and older participants were found as well (p = .038). Overall, the new test setup was well accepted, and we demonstrated that driving simulators can be used to study pedestrians' street-crossing decisions. PMID:26132219

  20. Sea Level Rise Decision Support Tools for Adaptation Planning in Vulnerable Coastal Communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rozum, J. S.; Marcy, D.

    2015-12-01

    NOAA is involved in a myriad of climate related research and projects that help decision makers and the public understand climate science as well as climate change impacts. The NOAA Office for Coastal Management (OCM) provides data, tools, trainings and technical assistance to coastal resource managers. Beginning in 2011, NOAA OCM began developing a sea level rise and coastal flooding impacts viewer which provides nationally consistent data sets and analyses to help communities with coastal management goals such as: understanding and communicating coastal flood hazards, performing vulnerability assessments and increasing coastal resilience, and prioritizing actions for different inundation/flooding scenarios. The Viewer is available on NOAA's Digital Coast platform: (coast.noaa.gov/ditgitalcoast/tools/slr). In this presentation we will share the lessons learned from our work with coastal decision-makers on the role of coastal flood risk data and tools in helping to shape future land use decisions and policies. We will also focus on a recent effort in California to help users understand the similarities and differences of a growing array of sea level rise decision support tools. NOAA staff and other partners convened a workshop entitled, "Lifting the Fog: Bringing Clarity to Sea Level Rise and Shoreline Change Models and Tools," which was attended by tool develops, science translators and coastal managers with the goal to create a collaborative communication framework to help California coastal decision-makers navigate the range of available sea level rise planning tools, and to inform tool developers of future planning needs. A sea level rise tools comparison matrix will be demonstrated. This matrix was developed as part of this effort and has been expanded to many other states via a partnership with NOAA, Climate Central, and The Nature Conservancy.

  1. Cultural and linguistic adaptation of a multimedia colorectal cancer screening decision aid for Spanish-speaking Latinos.

    PubMed

    Ko, Linda K; Reuland, Daniel; Jolles, Monica; Clay, Rebecca; Pignone, Michael

    2014-01-01

    As the United States becomes more linguistically and culturally diverse, there is a need for effective health communication interventions that target diverse, vulnerable populations, including Latinos. To address such disparities, health communication interventionists often face the challenge to adapt existing interventions from English into Spanish in a way that retains essential elements of the original intervention while also addressing the linguistic needs and cultural perspectives of the target population. The authors describe the conceptual framework, context, rationale, methods, and findings of a formative research process used in creating a Spanish-language version of an evidence-based (English language) multimedia colorectal cancer screening decision aid. The multistep process included identification of essential elements of the existing intervention, literature review, assessment of the regional context and engagement of key stakeholders, and solicitation of direct input from target population. The authors integrated these findings in the creation of the new adapted intervention. They describe how they used this process to identify and integrate sociocultural themes such as personalism (personalismo), familism (familismo), fear (miedo), embarrassment (verguenza), power distance (respeto), machismo, and trust (confianza) into the Spanish-language decision aid.

  2. iRESM INITIATIVE UNDERSTANDING DECISION SUPPORT NEEDS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION --US Midwest Region—

    SciTech Connect

    Rice, Jennie S.; Runci, Paul J.; Moss, Richard H.; Anderson, Kate L.

    2010-10-01

    The impacts of climate change are already affecting human and environmental systems worldwide, yet many uncertainties persist in the prediction of future climate changes and impacts due to limitations in scientific understanding of relevant causal factors. In particular, there is mounting urgency to efforts to improve models of human and environmental systems at the regional scale, and to integrate climate, ecosystem and energy-economic models to support policy, investment, and risk management decisions related to climate change mitigation (i.e., reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (i.e., responding to climate change impacts). The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is developing a modeling framework, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), to address regional human-environmental system interactions in response to climate change and the uncertainties therein. The framework will consist of a suite of integrated models representing regional climate change, regional climate policy, and the regional economy, with a focus on simulating the mitigation and adaptation decisions made over time in the energy, transportation, agriculture, and natural resource management sectors.

  3. Adaptation to a Changing Environment by Modifications in Organizational Decision Unit Structure.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duncan, Robert B.

    This paper presents a model of how organizations adapt to the uncertainty in their environment by making changes in the way they structure themselves for decisionmaking. The research reported here indicates that it is not just a single change in organizational structure, but rather a shifting between a more rigid and more flexible decision…

  4. Lithofacies identification using multiple adaptive resonance theory neural networks and group decision expert system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chang, H.-C.; Kopaska-Merkel, D. C.; Chen, H.-C.; Rocky, Durrans S.

    2000-01-01

    Lithofacies identification supplies qualitative information about rocks. Lithofacies represent rock textures and are important components of hydrocarbon reservoir description. Traditional techniques of lithofacies identification from core data are costly and different geologists may provide different interpretations. In this paper, we present a low-cost intelligent system consisting of three adaptive resonance theory neural networks and a rule-based expert system to consistently and objectively identify lithofacies from well-log data. The input data are altered into different forms representing different perspectives of observation of lithofacies. Each form of input is processed by a different adaptive resonance theory neural network. Among these three adaptive resonance theory neural networks, one neural network processes the raw continuous data, another processes categorial data, and the third processes fuzzy-set data. Outputs from these three networks are then combined by the expert system using fuzzy inference to determine to which facies the input data should be assigned. Rules are prioritized to emphasize the importance of firing order. This new approach combines the learning ability of neural networks, the adaptability of fuzzy logic, and the expertise of geologists to infer facies of the rocks. This approach is applied to the Appleton Field, an oil field located in Escambia County, Alabama. The hybrid intelligence system predicts lithofacies identity from log data with 87.6% accuracy. This prediction is more accurate than those of single adaptive resonance theory networks, 79.3%, 68.0% and 66.0%, using raw, fuzzy-set, and categorical data, respectively, and by an error-backpropagation neural network, 57.3%. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Fast subpel motion estimation for H.264/advanced video coding with an adaptive motion vector accuracy decision

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Hoyoung; Jung, Bongsoo; Jung, Jooyoung; Jeon, Byeungwoo

    2012-11-01

    The quarter-pel motion vector accuracy supported by H.264/advanced video coding (AVC) in motion estimation (ME) and compensation (MC) provides high compression efficiency. However, it also increases the computational complexity. While various well-known fast integer-pel ME methods are already available, lack of a good, fast subpel ME method results in problems associated with relatively high computational complexity. This paper presents one way of solving the complexity problem of subpel ME by making adaptive motion vector (MV) accuracy decisions in inter-mode selection. The proposed MV accuracy decision is made using inter-mode selection of a macroblock with two decision criteria. Pixels are classified as stationary (and/or homogeneous) or nonstationary (and/or nonhomogeneous). In order to avoid unnecessary interpolation and processing, a proper subpel ME level is chosen among four different combinations, each of which has a different MV accuracy and number of subpel ME iterations based on the classification. Simulation results using an open source x264 software encoder show that without any noticeable degradation (by -0.07 dB on average), the proposed method reduces total encoding time and subpel ME time, respectively, by 51.78% and by 76.49% on average, as compared to the conventional full-pel pixel search.

  6. Does fertility status influence impulsivity and risk taking in human females? Adaptive influences on intertemporal choice and risky decision making

    PubMed Central

    Stevens, Jeffrey R.

    2013-01-01

    Informed by the research on adaptive decision making in other animal species, this study investigated human female’s intertemporal and risky choices across the ovulatory cycle. We tested the hypothesis that at peak fertility, women who are exposed to environments that signal availability of higher quality mates, by viewing images of attractive males, become more impulsive and risk seeking in economic decision tasks. To test this, we collected intertemporal and risky choice before and after exposure to images of either attractive males or neutral landscapes both at peak and low fertility conditions. The results showed an interaction between women’s fertility status and image type, such that women at peak fertility viewing images of attractive men chose the smaller, sooner monetary reward option less than women at peak fertility viewing neutral images. Neither fertility status nor image type influenced risky choice. Thus, though exposure to images of men altered intertemporal choices at peak fertility, this occurred in the opposite direction as predicted—women at peak fertility became less impulsive. Nevertheless, the results of the current study provide evidence for shifts in preferences over the ovulatory cycle and opens future research on economic decision making. PMID:23864300

  7. Perceptual decision processes flexibly adapt to avoid change-of-mind motor costs.

    PubMed

    Moher, Jeff; Song, Joo-Hyun

    2014-07-01

    The motor system is tightly linked with perception and cognition. Recent studies have shown that even anticipated biophysical action costs associated with competing response options can be incorporated into decision-making processes. As a result, choices associated with high energy costs are less likely to be selected. However, some action costs may be harder to predict. For example, a person choosing among apples at a grocery store may change his or her mind suddenly about which apple to put into the cart. This change of mind may be reflected in motor output as the initial decision triggers a motor response toward a Granny Smith that is subsequently redirected toward a Red Delicious. In the present study, to examine how motor costs associated with changes of mind affect perceptual decision making, participants performed a difficult random dot–motion discrimination task in which they had to indicate the direction of motion by reaching to one of two response options. Although each response box was always equidistant from the starting position, the physical distance between the two response options was varied. We found that when the boxes were far apart from one another, and thus changes of mind incurred greater redirection motor costs, change-of-mind frequency decreased while latency to initiate movement increased. This occurred even when response box distance varied randomly from trial to trial and was cued only 1 s before each trial began. Thus, we demonstrated that observers can dynamically adjust perceptual decision-making processes to avoid high motor costs incurred by a change of mind.

  8. Science-policy interface in transformative adaptive flood risk management - decision-making in Austria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thaler, Thomas; Attems, Marie-Sophie; Rauter, Magdalena; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this paper aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this paper focussed on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. This paper used the Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA) as a method to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a system and its potential future development, based on qualitatively assessed impact factors and rated quantitative relations between these factors, such as impact and consistency analysis. The purpose of this approach was to develop scenarios, where participations develop their own strategies how to implement a transformative adaptation strategy in flood risk management. In particular, the interaction between researcher, the public and policy makers was analysed. Challenges and limitations were assessed, such as benefits on costs of adaptation measures, for the implementation of visions to

  9. The Carpe Diem West Academy: Connecting Water Resources Practitioners and Decision Support Tool Developers in Pursuit of Climate Change Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, H. C.; morino, K.; Wiltshire, K.

    2012-12-01

    Water resources practitioners face a confusing and often overwhelming plethora of evolving tools and methods for considering climate change in planning and management. Many tools require substantial investments in data gathering, analysis, or stakeholder engagement. Many address only pieces of the climate change adaptation challenge without clear interconnection. Additionally, there are few standards of practice in the application of these tools. The Carpe Diem West Academy provides knowledge sharing, community building, and collaboration among water resources practitioners and decision support tool developers to facilitate use of science in adaptation efforts. The technical core of the Academy is a web portal (carpediemwestacademy.org) that uses multiple frameworks, including iterative risk management, to organize an interactive compendium of over 150 tools and training resources developed by others, that are useful for water resources planning and management, including consideration of interconnections with other resources such as energy and ecosystem services. Academy users are supported through a variety of experimental approaches, including webinars and facilitated web discussion, for efficiently engaging water resources practitioners, at a scale that is practical to sustain, that fosters shared learning about tools and their application in adaptation efforts, and that can support establishment of best practices for incorporating uncertainty and climate change. The Academy has also been useful for identifying gaps where additional tools, methods, or professional development training are needed, and for providing feedback to tool developers. We report on key findings on the effectiveness of the Academy's multiple approaches.

  10. Decision making in concurrent multitasking: do people adapt to task interference?

    PubMed

    Nijboer, Menno; Taatgen, Niels A; Brands, Annelies; Borst, Jelmer P; van Rijn, Hedderik

    2013-01-01

    While multitasking has received a great deal of attention from researchers, we still know little about how well people adapt their behavior to multitasking demands. In three experiments, participants were presented with a multicolumn subtraction task, which required working memory in half of the trials. This primary task had to be combined with a secondary task requiring either working memory or visual attention, resulting in different types of interference. Before each trial, participants were asked to choose which secondary task they wanted to perform concurrently with the primary task. We predicted that if people seek to maximize performance or minimize effort required to perform the dual task, they choose task combinations that minimize interference. While performance data showed that the predicted optimal task combinations indeed resulted in minimal interference between tasks, the preferential choice data showed that a third of participants did not show any adaptation, and for the remainder it took a considerable number of trials before the optimal task combinations were chosen consistently. On the basis of these results we argue that, while in principle people are able to adapt their behavior according to multitasking demands, selection of the most efficient combination of strategies is not an automatic process.

  11. The development of adaptive decision making: Recognition-based inference in children and adolescents.

    PubMed

    Horn, Sebastian S; Ruggeri, Azzurra; Pachur, Thorsten

    2016-09-01

    Judgments about objects in the world are often based on probabilistic information (or cues). A frugal judgment strategy that utilizes memory (i.e., the ability to discriminate between known and unknown objects) as a cue for inference is the recognition heuristic (RH). The usefulness of the RH depends on the structure of the environment, particularly the predictive power (validity) of recognition. Little is known about developmental differences in use of the RH. In this study, the authors examined (a) to what extent children and adolescents recruit the RH when making judgments, and (b) around what age adaptive use of the RH emerges. Primary schoolchildren (M = 9 years), younger adolescents (M = 12 years), and older adolescents (M = 17 years) made comparative judgments in task environments with either high or low recognition validity. Reliance on the RH was measured with a hierarchical multinomial model. Results indicated that primary schoolchildren already made systematic use of the RH. However, only older adolescents adaptively adjusted their strategy use between environments and were better able to discriminate between situations in which the RH led to correct versus incorrect inferences. These findings suggest that the use of simple heuristics does not progress unidirectionally across development but strongly depends on the task environment, in line with the perspective of ecological rationality. Moreover, adaptive heuristic inference seems to require experience and a developed base of domain knowledge. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:27505696

  12. Decision Making in Concurrent Multitasking: Do People Adapt to Task Interference?

    PubMed Central

    Nijboer, Menno; Taatgen, Niels A.; Brands, Annelies; Borst, Jelmer P.; van Rijn, Hedderik

    2013-01-01

    While multitasking has received a great deal of attention from researchers, we still know little about how well people adapt their behavior to multitasking demands. In three experiments, participants were presented with a multicolumn subtraction task, which required working memory in half of the trials. This primary task had to be combined with a secondary task requiring either working memory or visual attention, resulting in different types of interference. Before each trial, participants were asked to choose which secondary task they wanted to perform concurrently with the primary task. We predicted that if people seek to maximize performance or minimize effort required to perform the dual task, they choose task combinations that minimize interference. While performance data showed that the predicted optimal task combinations indeed resulted in minimal interference between tasks, the preferential choice data showed that a third of participants did not show any adaptation, and for the remainder it took a considerable number of trials before the optimal task combinations were chosen consistently. On the basis of these results we argue that, while in principle people are able to adapt their behavior according to multitasking demands, selection of the most efficient combination of strategies is not an automatic process. PMID:24244527

  13. A Decision Support System for Climate Change Adaptation in Rainfed Sectors of Agriculture for Central Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mátyás, Csaba; Berki, Imre; Drüszler, Áron; Eredics, Attila; Gálos, Borbála; Illés, Gábor; Móricz, Norbert; Rasztovits, Ervin; Czimber, Kornél

    2013-04-01

    • Background and aims: Rainfed sectors of agriculture such as nature-close forestry, non-irrigated agriculture and animal husbandry on nature-close pastures are threatened by projected climate change especially in low-elevation regions in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is the limiting factor of production and ecosystem stability. Therefore the importance of complex, long term management planning and of land use optimization is increasing. The aim of the Decision Support System under development is to raise awareness and initiate preparation for frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses in the mentioned sectors. • Services provided: The Decision Support System provides GIS-supported information about the most important regional and local risks and mitigation options regarding climate change impacts, projected for reference periods until 2100 (e.g. land cover/use and expectable changes, potential production, water and carbon cycle, biodiversity and other ecosystem services, potential pests and diseases, tolerance limits etc.). The projections are referring first of all on biological production (natural produce), but the System includes also social and economic consequences. • Methods: In the raster based system, the latest image processing technology is used. We apply fuzzy membership functions, Support Vector Machine and Maximum Likelihood classifier. The System is developed in the first step for a reference area in SW Hungary (Zala county). • Novelty: The coherent, fine-scale regional system integrates the basic information about present and projected climates, extremes, hydrology and soil conditions and expected production potential for three sectors of agriculture as options for land use and conservation. • Funding: The development of the Decision Support System "Agrárklíma" is supported by TÁMOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV and 4.2.2.B-10/1-2010-0018 "Talentum" joint EU-national research projects. Keywords: climate change

  14. Statistical learning and adaptive decision-making underlie human response time variability in inhibitory control

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Ning; Yu, Angela J.

    2015-01-01

    Response time (RT) is an oft-reported behavioral measure in psychological and neurocognitive experiments, but the high level of observed trial-to-trial variability in this measure has often limited its usefulness. Here, we combine computational modeling and psychophysics to examine the hypothesis that fluctuations in this noisy measure reflect dynamic computations in human statistical learning and corresponding cognitive adjustments. We present data from the stop-signal task (SST), in which subjects respond to a go stimulus on each trial, unless instructed not to by a subsequent, infrequently presented stop signal. We model across-trial learning of stop signal frequency, P(stop), and stop-signal onset time, SSD (stop-signal delay), with a Bayesian hidden Markov model, and within-trial decision-making with an optimal stochastic control model. The combined model predicts that RT should increase with both expected P(stop) and SSD. The human behavioral data (n = 20) bear out this prediction, showing P(stop) and SSD both to be significant, independent predictors of RT, with P(stop) being a more prominent predictor in 75% of the subjects, and SSD being more prominent in the remaining 25%. The results demonstrate that humans indeed readily internalize environmental statistics and adjust their cognitive/behavioral strategy accordingly, and that subtle patterns in RT variability can serve as a valuable tool for validating models of statistical learning and decision-making. More broadly, the modeling tools presented in this work can be generalized to a large body of behavioral paradigms, in order to extract insights about cognitive and neural processing from apparently quite noisy behavioral measures. We also discuss how this behaviorally validated model can then be used to conduct model-based analysis of neural data, in order to help identify specific brain areas for representing and encoding key computational quantities in learning and decision-making. PMID:26321966

  15. Obstacles to adaptation decisions in the developing world: A case study of coastal protection measures and sea-level rise in Kiribati

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, S. D.; Webber, S.

    2014-12-01

    International aid is increasingly focused on adaptation to climate change. At recent meetings of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the developed world agreed to rapidly increase international assistance to help the developing world respond to the impacts of climate change. Here, we examine the decision-making challenges facing internationally supported climate change adaptation projects given the large uncertainty in future climate predictions, using the example of efforts to implement coastal protection measures (e.g. sea walls, mangrove planting) in Kiribati. The central equatorial Pacific country is home to the Kiribati Adaptation Project, the first national-level climate change adaptation project supported by the World Bank. Drawing on interview and document research conducted over an 8-year period, we trace the forces influencing decisions about coastal protection measures, starting from the variability and uncertainty in climate change projections, through the trade-offs between different measures, to the social, political, and economic context in which decisions are finally made. We then discuss how sub-optimal adaptation measures may be implemented despite years of planning, consultation, and technical studies. This qualitative analysis of the real-world process of climate change adaptation reveals that embracing a culturally appropriate and short-term (~20 years) planning horizon, while not ignoring the longer-term future, may reduce the influence of scientific uncertainty on decisions and provide opportunities to learn from mistakes, reassess the science, and adjust suboptimal investments.

  16. Application of flood risk modelling in a web-based geospatial decision support tool for coastal adaptation to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knight, P. J.; Prime, T.; Brown, J. M.; Morrissey, K.; Plater, A. J.

    2015-02-01

    A pressing problem facing coastal decision makers is the conversion of "high level" but plausible climate change assessments into an effective basis for climate change adaptation at the local scale. Here, we describe a web-based, geospatial decision-support tool (DST) that provides an assessment of the potential flood risk for populated coastal lowlands arising from future sea-level rise, coastal storms and high river flows. This DST has been developed to support operational and strategic decision making by enabling the user to explore the flood hazard from extreme events, changes in the extent of the flood-prone areas with sea-level rise, and thresholds of sea-level rise where current policy and resource options are no longer viable. The DST is built in an open source GIS that uses freely available geospatial data. Flood risk assessments from a combination of LISFLOOD-FP and SWAB models are embedded within the tool; the user interface enables interrogation of different combinations of coastal and river events under rising sea-level scenarios. Users can readily vary the input parameters (sea level, storms, wave height and river flow) relative to the present-day topography and infrastructure to identify combinations where significant regime shifts or "tipping points" occur. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the attributes of the DST with respect to the wider coastal community and the UK energy sector. Examples report on the assets at risk and illustrate the extent of flooding in relation to infrastructure access. This informs an economic assessment of potential losses due to climate change and thus provides local authorities and energy operators with essential information on the feasibility of investment for building resilience into vulnerable components of their area of responsibility.

  17. Application of flood risk modelling in a web-based geospatial decision support tool for coastal adaptation to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knight, P. J.; Prime, T.; Brown, J. M.; Morrissey, K.; Plater, A. J.

    2015-07-01

    A pressing problem facing coastal decision makers is the conversion of "high-level" but plausible climate change assessments into an effective basis for climate change adaptation at the local scale. Here, we describe a web-based, geospatial decision support tool (DST) that provides an assessment of the potential flood risk for populated coastal lowlands arising from future sea-level rise, coastal storms, and high river flows. This DST has been developed to support operational and strategic decision making by enabling the user to explore the flood hazard from extreme events, changes in the extent of the flood-prone areas with sea-level rise, and thresholds of sea-level rise where current policy and resource options are no longer viable. The DST is built in an open-source GIS that uses freely available geospatial data. Flood risk assessments from a combination of LISFLOOD-FP and SWAB (Shallow Water And Boussinesq) models are embedded within the tool; the user interface enables interrogation of different combinations of coastal and river events under rising-sea-level scenarios. Users can readily vary the input parameters (sea level, storms, wave height and river flow) relative to the present-day topography and infrastructure to identify combinations where significant regime shifts or "tipping points" occur. Two case studies demonstrate the attributes of the DST with respect to the wider coastal community and the UK energy sector. Examples report on the assets at risk and illustrate the extent of flooding in relation to infrastructure access. This informs an economic assessment of potential losses due to climate change and thus provides local authorities and energy operators with essential information on the feasibility of investment for building resilience into vulnerable components of their area of responsibility.

  18. Complexity reduction in the H.264/AVC using highly adaptive fast mode decision based on macroblock motion activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdellah, Skoudarli; Mokhtar, Nibouche; Amina, Serir

    2015-11-01

    The H.264/AVC video coding standard is used in a wide range of applications from video conferencing to high-definition television according to its high compression efficiency. This efficiency is mainly acquired from the newly allowed prediction schemes including variable block modes. However, these schemes require a high complexity to select the optimal mode. Consequently, complexity reduction in the H.264/AVC encoder has recently become a very challenging task in the video compression domain, especially when implementing the encoder in real-time applications. Fast mode decision algorithms play an important role in reducing the overall complexity of the encoder. In this paper, we propose an adaptive fast intermode algorithm based on motion activity, temporal stationarity, and spatial homogeneity. This algorithm predicts the motion activity of the current macroblock from its neighboring blocks and identifies temporal stationary regions and spatially homogeneous regions using adaptive threshold values based on content video features. Extensive experimental work has been done in high profile, and results show that the proposed source-coding algorithm effectively reduces the computational complexity by 53.18% on average compared with the reference software encoder, while maintaining the high-coding efficiency of H.264/AVC by incurring only 0.097 dB in total peak signal-to-noise ratio and 0.228% increment on the total bit rate.

  19. Cognitive flexibility in adolescence: Neural and behavioral mechanisms of reward prediction error processing in adaptive decision making during development

    PubMed Central

    Hauser, Tobias U.; Iannaccone, Reto; Walitza, Susanne; Brandeis, Daniel; Brem, Silvia

    2015-01-01

    Adolescence is associated with quickly changing environmental demands which require excellent adaptive skills and high cognitive flexibility. Feedback-guided adaptive learning and cognitive flexibility are driven by reward prediction error (RPE) signals, which indicate the accuracy of expectations and can be estimated using computational models. Despite the importance of cognitive flexibility during adolescence, only little is known about how RPE processing in cognitive flexibility deviates between adolescence and adulthood. In this study, we investigated the developmental aspects of cognitive flexibility by means of computational models and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We compared the neural and behavioral correlates of cognitive flexibility in healthy adolescents (12–16 years) to adults performing a probabilistic reversal learning task. Using a modified risk-sensitive reinforcement learning model, we found that adolescents learned faster from negative RPEs than adults. The fMRI analysis revealed that within the RPE network, the adolescents had a significantly altered RPE-response in the anterior insula. This effect seemed to be mainly driven by increased responses to negative prediction errors. In summary, our findings indicate that decision making in adolescence goes beyond merely increased reward-seeking behavior and provides a developmental perspective to the behavioral and neural mechanisms underlying cognitive flexibility in the context of reinforcement learning. PMID:25234119

  20. Adapting a GIS-Based Multicriteria Decision Analysis Approach for Evaluating New Power Generating Sites

    SciTech Connect

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Blevins, Brandon R; Jochem, Warren C; Mays, Gary T; Belles, Randy; Hadley, Stanton W; Harrison, Thomas J; Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Neish, Bradley S; Rose, Amy N

    2012-01-01

    There is a growing need to site new power generating plants that use cleaner energy sources due to increased regulations on air and water pollution and a sociopolitical desire to develop more clean energy sources. To assist utility and energy companies as well as policy-makers in evaluating potential areas for siting new plants in the contiguous United States, a geographic information system (GIS)-based multicriteria decision analysis approach is presented in this paper. The presented approach has led to the development of the Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion (OR-SAGE) tool. The tool takes inputs such as population growth, water availability, environmental indicators, and tectonic and geological hazards to provide an in-depth analysis for siting options. To the utility and energy companies, the tool can quickly and effectively provide feedback on land suitability based on technology specific inputs. However, the tool does not replace the required detailed evaluation of candidate sites. To the policy-makers, the tool provides the ability to analyze the impacts of future energy technology while balancing competing resource use.

  1. A decision support system for adaptive real-time management ofseasonal wetlands in California

    SciTech Connect

    Quinn, Nigel W.T.; Hanna, W. Mark

    2001-10-16

    This paper describes the development of a comprehensive flow and salinity monitoring system and application of a decision support system (DSS) to improve management of seasonal wetlands in the San Joaquin Valley of California. The Environmental Protection Agency regulates salinity discharges from non-point sources to the San Joaquin River using a procedure known as the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) to allocate the assimilative capacity of the River for salt among watershed sources. Management of wetland sources of salt load will require the development of monitoring systems, more integrative management strategies and coordination with other entities. To obtain local cooperation the Grassland Water District, whose primary function is to supply surface water to private duck clubs and managed wetlands, needs to communicate to local landowners the likely impacts of salinity regulation on the long term health and function of wildfowl habitat. The project described in this paper will also provide this information. The models that form the backbone of the DSS develop salinity balances at both a regional and local scale. The regional scale concentrates on deliveries to and exports from the Grasland Water District while the local scale focuses on an individual wetland unit where more intensive monitoring is being conducted. The design of the DSS is constrained to meet the needs of busy wetland managers and is being designed from the bottom up utilizing tools and procedures familiar to these individuals.

  2. Adapt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bargatze, L. F.

    2015-12-01

    Active Data Archive Product Tracking (ADAPT) is a collection of software routines that permits one to generate XML metadata files to describe and register data products in support of the NASA Heliophysics Virtual Observatory VxO effort. ADAPT is also a philosophy. The ADAPT concept is to use any and all available metadata associated with scientific data to produce XML metadata descriptions in a consistent, uniform, and organized fashion to provide blanket access to the full complement of data stored on a targeted data server. In this poster, we present an application of ADAPT to describe all of the data products that are stored by using the Common Data File (CDF) format served out by the CDAWEB and SPDF data servers hosted at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. These data servers are the primary repositories for NASA Heliophysics data. For this purpose, the ADAPT routines have been used to generate data resource descriptions by using an XML schema named Space Physics Archive, Search, and Extract (SPASE). SPASE is the designated standard for documenting Heliophysics data products, as adopted by the Heliophysics Data and Model Consortium. The set of SPASE XML resource descriptions produced by ADAPT includes high-level descriptions of numerical data products, display data products, or catalogs and also includes low-level "Granule" descriptions. A SPASE Granule is effectively a universal access metadata resource; a Granule associates an individual data file (e.g. a CDF file) with a "parent" high-level data resource description, assigns a resource identifier to the file, and lists the corresponding assess URL(s). The CDAWEB and SPDF file systems were queried to provide the input required by the ADAPT software to create an initial set of SPASE metadata resource descriptions. Then, the CDAWEB and SPDF data repositories were queried subsequently on a nightly basis and the CDF file lists were checked for any changes such as the occurrence of new, modified, or deleted

  3. A GIS-based Adaptive Management Decision Support System to Develop a Multi-Objective Framework: A case study utilizing GIS technologies and physically-based models to archieve improved decision making for site management.

    SciTech Connect

    Coleman, Andre M.; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Lane, Leonard J.; Tagestad, Jerry D.; Roberts, Damon

    2008-06-26

    The notion of Adaptive Management (AM) allows for the realization and adjustment of management practices in response to elements of uncertainty. In terms of natural resource management, this will typically integrate monitoring, databases, simulation modeling, decision theory, and expert judgment to evaluate management alternatives and adapt them as necessary to continually improve the natural resource condition as defined by the stakeholders. Natural resource management scenarios can often be expressed, viewed, and understood as a spatial and temporal problem. The integration of Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies and physically-based models provide an effective state-of-the-art solution for deriving, understanding, and applying AM scenarios for land use and remediation. A recently developed GIS-based adaptive management decision support system is presented for the U.S. Department of Defense Yakima Training Center near Yakima, Washington.

  4. Interactive Genetic Algorithm - An Adaptive and Interactive Decision Support Framework for Design of Optimal Groundwater Monitoring Plans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babbar-Sebens, M.; Minsker, B. S.

    2006-12-01

    In the water resources management field, decision making encompasses many kinds of engineering, social, and economic constraints and objectives. Representing all of these problem dependant criteria through models (analytical or numerical) and various formulations (e.g., objectives, constraints, etc.) within an optimization- simulation system can be a very non-trivial issue. Most models and formulations utilized for discerning desirable traits in a solution can only approximate the decision maker's (DM) true preference criteria, and they often fail to consider important qualitative and incomputable phenomena related to the management problem. In our research, we have proposed novel decision support frameworks that allow DMs to actively participate in the optimization process. The DMs explicitly indicate their true preferences based on their subjective criteria and the results of various simulation models and formulations. The feedback from the DMs is then used to guide the search process towards solutions that are "all-rounders" from the perspective of the DM. The two main research questions explored in this work are: a) Does interaction between the optimization algorithm and a DM assist the system in searching for groundwater monitoring designs that are robust from the DM's perspective?, and b) How can an interactive search process be made more effective when human factors, such as human fatigue and cognitive learning processes, affect the performance of the algorithm? The application of these frameworks on a real-world groundwater long-term monitoring (LTM) case study in Michigan highlighted the following salient advantages: a) in contrast to the non-interactive optimization methodology, the proposed interactive frameworks were able to identify low cost monitoring designs whose interpolation maps respected the expected spatial distribution of the contaminants, b) for many same-cost designs, the interactive methodologies were able to propose multiple alternatives

  5. Can Conservation Contracts Co-exist with Change? Payment for Ecosystem Services in the Context of Adaptive Decision-Making and Sustainability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayes, Tanya; Murtinho, Felipe; Cárdenas Camacho, Luis Mario; Crespo, Patricio; McHugh, Sarah; Salmerón, David

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the ability of payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs to operate in the context of dynamic and complex social-ecological systems. Drawing on the experiences of two different PES programs in Latin America, we examine how PES institutions fit with the tenets of adaptive decision-making for sustainable resource management. We identify how the program goals and the connection to the market influence the incentive structure, information gathering, learning and feedback processes, and the structure of decision-making rights, specifically the ability to make and modify resource-use rules. Although limited in their generalizability, findings from the two case studies suggest a tension between the contractual model of PES and adaptive decision-making in natural resource systems. PES programs are not inherently decentralized, flexible management tools, as PES contracts tend to restrict decision-making rights and offer minimal flexibility mechanisms to change resource-use practices over the duration of the contract period. Furthermore, PES design and flexibility is heavily dependent on the goals and mission of the buyer and the respective market. If PES is to facilitate sustainable resource management, greater attention is needed to assess how the institutional design of the PES contracts influence the motivation and capacity of participants and program officers alike to adaptively manage the respective resource systems.

  6. Peircean Theory, Psychosemiotics, and Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Howard A.

    2005-01-01

    The main aim of this article is to describe central elements of, and the relationships among, three interrelated domains of inquiry. The first domain is Charles Peirce's semiotic theory which offers five concepts of special relevance to the other two domains: (a) primary components of the triadic sign, including the object, representamen, and…

  7. An adaptive approach to invasive plant management on U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service-owned native prairies in the Prairie Pothole Region: decision support under uncertainity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gannon, Jill J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Flanders-Wanner, Bridgette

    2011-01-01

    Much of the native prairie managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is extensively invaded by the introduced cool-season grasses smooth brome (Bromus inermis) and Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis). The central challenge to managers is selecting appropriate management actions in the face of biological and environmental uncertainties. We describe the technical components of a USGS management project, and explain how the components integrate and inform each other, how data feedback from individual cooperators serves to reduce uncertainty across the whole region, and how a successful adaptive management project is coordinated and maintained on a large scale. In partnership with the Service, the U.S. Geological Survey is developing an adaptive decision support framework to assist managers in selecting management actions under uncertainty and maximizing learning from management outcomes. The framework is built around practical constraints faced by refuge managers and includes identification of the management objective and strategies, analysis of uncertainty and construction of competing decision models, monitoring, and mechanisms for model feedback and decision selection. Nineteen Service field stations, spanning four states of the PPR, are participating in the project. They share a common management objective, available management strategies, and biological uncertainties. While the scope is broad, the project interfaces with individual land managers who provide refuge-specific information and receive updated decision guidance that incorporates understanding gained from the collective experience of all cooperators.

  8. Adaptive management on the central Platte River--science, engineering, and decision analysis to assist in the recovery of four species.

    PubMed

    Smith, Chadwin B

    2011-05-01

    Active adaptive management is the centerpiece of a major species recovery program now underway on the central Platte River in Nebraska. The Platte River Recovery Implementation Program initiated on January 1, 2007 and is a joint effort between the states of Colorado, Wyoming, and Nebraska; the U.S. Department of the Interior; waters users; and conservation groups. This program is intended to address issues related to endangered species and loss of habitat along the Platte River in central Nebraska by managing land and water resources and using adaptive management as its science framework. The adaptive management plan provides a systematic process to test hypotheses and apply the information learned to improve management on the ground, and is centered on conceptual models and priority hypotheses that reflect different interpretations of how river processes work and the best approach to meeting key objectives. This framework reveals a shared attempt to use the best available science to implement experiments, learn, and revise management actions accordingly on the Platte River. This paper focuses on the status of adaptive management implementation on the Platte, experimental and habitat design issues, and the use of decision analysis tools to help set objectives and guide decisions.

  9. Adaptive error detection for HDR/PDR brachytherapy: Guidance for decision making during real-time in vivo point dosimetry

    SciTech Connect

    Kertzscher, Gustavo Andersen, Claus E.; Tanderup, Kari

    2014-05-15

    Purpose: This study presents an adaptive error detection algorithm (AEDA) for real-timein vivo point dosimetry during high dose rate (HDR) or pulsed dose rate (PDR) brachytherapy (BT) where the error identification, in contrast to existing approaches, does not depend on an a priori reconstruction of the dosimeter position. Instead, the treatment is judged based on dose rate comparisons between measurements and calculations of the most viable dosimeter position provided by the AEDA in a data driven approach. As a result, the AEDA compensates for false error cases related to systematic effects of the dosimeter position reconstruction. Given its nearly exclusive dependence on stable dosimeter positioning, the AEDA allows for a substantially simplified and time efficient real-time in vivo BT dosimetry implementation. Methods: In the event of a measured potential treatment error, the AEDA proposes the most viable dosimeter position out of alternatives to the original reconstruction by means of a data driven matching procedure between dose rate distributions. If measured dose rates do not differ significantly from the most viable alternative, the initial error indication may be attributed to a mispositioned or misreconstructed dosimeter (false error). However, if the error declaration persists, no viable dosimeter position can be found to explain the error, hence the discrepancy is more likely to originate from a misplaced or misreconstructed source applicator or from erroneously connected source guide tubes (true error). Results: The AEDA applied on twoin vivo dosimetry implementations for pulsed dose rate BT demonstrated that the AEDA correctly described effects responsible for initial error indications. The AEDA was able to correctly identify the major part of all permutations of simulated guide tube swap errors and simulated shifts of individual needles from the original reconstruction. Unidentified errors corresponded to scenarios where the dosimeter position was

  10. Adaptive Allocation of Decision Making Responsibility Between Human and Computer in Multi-Task Situations. Ph.D. Thesis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chu, Y. Y.

    1978-01-01

    A unified formulation of computer-aided, multi-task, decision making is presented. Strategy for the allocation of decision making responsibility between human and computer is developed. The plans of a flight management systems are studied. A model based on the queueing theory was implemented.

  11. Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

    2016-04-01

    Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing

  12. Conflict adaptation within but not across NoGo decision criteria: Event-related-potential evidence of specificity in the contextual modulation of cognitive control.

    PubMed

    Feldman, Julia L; Clark, Sheri L; Freitas, Antonio L

    2015-07-01

    From the standpoint of conflict-monitoring theory (Botvinick et al., 2001), detecting an incident of information-processing conflict should attenuate the disruptive influence of information-processing conflicts encountered subsequently, by which time cognitive-control operations will have been engaged. To examine the generality of this conflict-adaptation process across task dimensions, the present research analyzed event-related potentials in a Go/NoGo task that randomly varied the NoGo decision criterion applied across trials. Sequential analyses revealed reduced-amplitude fronto-central N2 and NoGo P3 responses on the second of two consecutive NoGo trials. Importantly, both of these conflict-adaptation effects were present only when the same NoGo decision criterion was applied across trials n and n-1. These findings support the theory that encountering information-processing conflict focuses attention on specific stimulus-response contingencies (Verguts & Notebaert, 2009) rather than engages general cognitive-control mechanisms (Freitas & Clark, 2015). Further implications for the generality of cognitive control are discussed.

  13. LandCaRe DSS--an interactive decision support system for climate change impact assessment and the analysis of potential agricultural land use adaptation strategies.

    PubMed

    Wenkel, Karl-Otto; Berg, Michael; Mirschel, Wilfried; Wieland, Ralf; Nendel, Claas; Köstner, Barbara

    2013-09-01

    Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously

  14. Opportunistic management of estuaries under climate change: A new adaptive decision-making framework and its practical application.

    PubMed

    Peirson, William; Davey, Erica; Jones, Alan; Hadwen, Wade; Bishop, Keith; Beger, Maria; Capon, Samantha; Fairweather, Peter; Creese, Bob; Smith, Timothy F; Gray, Leigh; Tomlinson, Rodger

    2015-11-01

    Ongoing coastal development and the prospect of severe climate change impacts present pressing estuary management and governance challenges. Robust approaches must recognise the intertwined social and ecological vulnerabilities of estuaries. Here, a new governance and management framework is proposed that recognises the integrated social-ecological systems of estuaries so as to permit transformative adaptation to climate change within these systems. The framework lists stakeholders and identifies estuarine uses and values. Goals are categorised that are specific to ecosystems, private property, public infrastructure, and human communities. Systematic adaptation management strategies are proposed with conceptual examples and associated governance approaches. Contrasting case studies are used to illustrate the practical application of these ideas. The framework will assist estuary managers worldwide to achieve their goals, minimise maladaptative responses, better identify competing interests, reduce stakeholder conflict and exploit opportunities for appropriate ecosystem restoration and sustainable development.

  15. Adapting an Evidence-Based Intervention for Homeless Women: Engaging the Community in Shared Decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Cederbaum, Julie A.; Song, Ahyoung; Hsu, Hsun-Ta; Tucker, Joan S.; Wenzel, Suzanne L.

    2014-01-01

    As interest grows in the diffusion of evidence-based interventions (EBIs), there is increasing concern about how to mitigate implementation challenges; this paper concerns adapting an EBI for homeless women. Complementing earlier focus groups with homeless women, homeless service providers (n = 32) were engaged in focus groups to assess capacity, needs, and barriers with implementation of EBIs. Deductive analyses of data led to the selection of four EBIs. Six consensus groups were then undertaken; three each with homeless women (n = 24) and homeless service providers (n = 21). The selected EBI was adapted and pretested with homeless women (n = 9) and service providers (n = 6). The structured consensus group process provided great utility and affirmed the expertise of homeless women and service providers as experts in their domain. Engaging providers in the selection process reduced the structural barriers within agencies as obstacles to diffusion. PMID:25418227

  16. Adaptation of a Published Risk Model to Point-of-care Clinical Decision Support Tailored to Local Workflow.

    PubMed

    Sobel, Jeffrey L; Baker, Craig C; Levy, David; Cain, Carol H

    2015-01-01

    Electronic clinical decision support can bring newly published knowledge to the point of care. However, local organizational buy-in, support for team workflows, IT system ease of use and other sociotechnical factors are needed to promote adoption. We successfully implemented a multi-variate cardiac risk stratification model from another institution into ours. We recreated the model and integrated it into our workflow, accessing it from our EHR with patient-specific data and facilitating clinical documentation if the user accepts the model results. Our clinical leaders championed the change and led educational dissemination efforts. We describe the ad-hoc social and technical collaboration needed to build and deploy the tool. The tool complements a clinical initiative within a community of practice, and is correlated with appropriate use of nuclear imaging. PMID:26958255

  17. Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning.

    PubMed

    Siña, Mariella; Wood, Rachel C; Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status. PMID:26808087

  18. Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning

    PubMed Central

    Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status. PMID:26808087

  19. Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning.

    PubMed

    Siña, Mariella; Wood, Rachel C; Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status.

  20. An engineered approach to stem cell culture: automating the decision process for real-time adaptive subculture of stem cells.

    PubMed

    Ker, Dai Fei Elmer; Weiss, Lee E; Junkers, Silvina N; Chen, Mei; Yin, Zhaozheng; Sandbothe, Michael F; Huh, Seung-il; Eom, Sungeun; Bise, Ryoma; Osuna-Highley, Elvira; Kanade, Takeo; Campbell, Phil G

    2011-01-01

    Current cell culture practices are dependent upon human operators and remain laborious and highly subjective, resulting in large variations and inconsistent outcomes, especially when using visual assessments of cell confluency to determine the appropriate time to subculture cells. Although efforts to automate cell culture with robotic systems are underway, the majority of such systems still require human intervention to determine when to subculture. Thus, it is necessary to accurately and objectively determine the appropriate time for cell passaging. Optimal stem cell culturing that maintains cell pluripotency while maximizing cell yields will be especially important for efficient, cost-effective stem cell-based therapies. Toward this goal we developed a real-time computer vision-based system that monitors the degree of cell confluency with a precision of 0.791±0.031 and recall of 0.559±0.043. The system consists of an automated phase-contrast time-lapse microscope and a server. Multiple dishes are sequentially imaged and the data is uploaded to the server that performs computer vision processing, predicts when cells will exceed a pre-defined threshold for optimal cell confluency, and provides a Web-based interface for remote cell culture monitoring. Human operators are also notified via text messaging and e-mail 4 hours prior to reaching this threshold and immediately upon reaching this threshold. This system was successfully used to direct the expansion of a paradigm stem cell population, C2C12 cells. Computer-directed and human-directed control subcultures required 3 serial cultures to achieve the theoretical target cell yield of 50 million C2C12 cells and showed no difference for myogenic and osteogenic differentiation. This automated vision-based system has potential as a tool toward adaptive real-time control of subculturing, cell culture optimization and quality assurance/quality control, and it could be integrated with current and developing robotic cell

  1. Net-zero Building Cluster Simulations and On-line Energy Forecasting for Adaptive and Real-Time Control and Decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xiwang

    Buildings consume about 41.1% of primary energy and 74% of the electricity in the U.S. Moreover, it is estimated by the National Energy Technology Laboratory that more than 1/4 of the 713 GW of U.S. electricity demand in 2010 could be dispatchable if only buildings could respond to that dispatch through advanced building energy control and operation strategies and smart grid infrastructure. In this study, it is envisioned that neighboring buildings will have the tendency to form a cluster, an open cyber-physical system to exploit the economic opportunities provided by a smart grid, distributed power generation, and storage devices. Through optimized demand management, these building clusters will then reduce overall primary energy consumption and peak time electricity consumption, and be more resilient to power disruptions. Therefore, this project seeks to develop a Net-zero building cluster simulation testbed and high fidelity energy forecasting models for adaptive and real-time control and decision making strategy development that can be used in a Net-zero building cluster. The following research activities are summarized in this thesis: 1) Development of a building cluster emulator for building cluster control and operation strategy assessment. 2) Development of a novel building energy forecasting methodology using active system identification and data fusion techniques. In this methodology, a systematic approach for building energy system characteristic evaluation, system excitation and model adaptation is included. The developed methodology is compared with other literature-reported building energy forecasting methods; 3) Development of the high fidelity on-line building cluster energy forecasting models, which includes energy forecasting models for buildings, PV panels, batteries and ice tank thermal storage systems 4) Small scale real building validation study to verify the performance of the developed building energy forecasting methodology. The outcomes of

  2. Bayesian integrated testing strategy (ITS) for skin sensitization potency assessment: a decision support system for quantitative weight of evidence and adaptive testing strategy.

    PubMed

    Jaworska, Joanna S; Natsch, Andreas; Ryan, Cindy; Strickland, Judy; Ashikaga, Takao; Miyazawa, Masaaki

    2015-12-01

    The presented Bayesian network Integrated Testing Strategy (ITS-3) for skin sensitization potency assessment is a decision support system for a risk assessor that provides quantitative weight of evidence, leading to a mechanistically interpretable potency hypothesis, and formulates adaptive testing strategy for a chemical. The system was constructed with an aim to improve precision and accuracy for predicting LLNA potency beyond ITS-2 (Jaworska et al., J Appl Toxicol 33(11):1353-1364, 2013) by improving representation of chemistry and biology. Among novel elements are corrections for bioavailability both in vivo and in vitro as well as consideration of the individual assays' applicability domains in the prediction process. In ITS-3 structure, three validated alternative assays, DPRA, KeratinoSens and h-CLAT, represent first three key events of the adverse outcome pathway for skin sensitization. The skin sensitization potency prediction is provided as a probability distribution over four potency classes. The probability distribution is converted to Bayes factors to: 1) remove prediction bias introduced by the training set potency distribution and 2) express uncertainty in a quantitative manner, allowing transparent and consistent criteria to accept a prediction. The novel ITS-3 database includes 207 chemicals with a full set of in vivo and in vitro data. The accuracy for predicting LLNA outcomes on the external test set (n = 60) was as follows: hazard (two classes)-100 %, GHS potency classification (three classes)-96 %, potency (four classes)-89 %. This work demonstrates that skin sensitization potency prediction based on data from three key events, and often less, is possible, reliable over broad chemical classes and ready for practical applications.

  3. Critical appraisal of assumptions in chains of model calculations used to project local climate impacts for adaptation decision support—the case of Baakse Beek

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Sluijs, Jeroen P.; Arjan Wardekker, J.

    2015-04-01

    In order to enable anticipation and proactive adaptation, local decision makers increasingly seek detailed foresight about regional and local impacts of climate change. To this end, the Netherlands Models and Data-Centre implemented a pilot chain of sequentially linked models to project local climate impacts on hydrology, agriculture and nature under different national climate scenarios for a small region in the east of the Netherlands named Baakse Beek. The chain of models sequentially linked in that pilot includes a (future) weather generator and models of respectively subsurface hydrogeology, ground water stocks and flows, soil chemistry, vegetation development, crop yield and nature quality. These models typically have mismatching time step sizes and grid cell sizes. The linking of these models unavoidably involves the making of model assumptions that can hardly be validated, such as those needed to bridge the mismatches in spatial and temporal scales. Here we present and apply a method for the systematic critical appraisal of model assumptions that seeks to identify and characterize the weakest assumptions in a model chain. The critical appraisal of assumptions presented in this paper has been carried out ex-post. For the case of the climate impact model chain for Baakse Beek, the three most problematic assumptions were found to be: land use and land management kept constant over time; model linking of (daily) ground water model output to the (yearly) vegetation model around the root zone; and aggregation of daily output of the soil hydrology model into yearly input of a so called ‘mineralization reduction factor’ (calculated from annual average soil pH and daily soil hydrology) in the soil chemistry model. Overall, the method for critical appraisal of model assumptions presented and tested in this paper yields a rich qualitative insight in model uncertainty and model quality. It promotes reflectivity and learning in the modelling community, and leads to

  4. Bayesian integrated testing strategy (ITS) for skin sensitization potency assessment: a decision support system for quantitative weight of evidence and adaptive testing strategy.

    PubMed

    Jaworska, Joanna S; Natsch, Andreas; Ryan, Cindy; Strickland, Judy; Ashikaga, Takao; Miyazawa, Masaaki

    2015-12-01

    The presented Bayesian network Integrated Testing Strategy (ITS-3) for skin sensitization potency assessment is a decision support system for a risk assessor that provides quantitative weight of evidence, leading to a mechanistically interpretable potency hypothesis, and formulates adaptive testing strategy for a chemical. The system was constructed with an aim to improve precision and accuracy for predicting LLNA potency beyond ITS-2 (Jaworska et al., J Appl Toxicol 33(11):1353-1364, 2013) by improving representation of chemistry and biology. Among novel elements are corrections for bioavailability both in vivo and in vitro as well as consideration of the individual assays' applicability domains in the prediction process. In ITS-3 structure, three validated alternative assays, DPRA, KeratinoSens and h-CLAT, represent first three key events of the adverse outcome pathway for skin sensitization. The skin sensitization potency prediction is provided as a probability distribution over four potency classes. The probability distribution is converted to Bayes factors to: 1) remove prediction bias introduced by the training set potency distribution and 2) express uncertainty in a quantitative manner, allowing transparent and consistent criteria to accept a prediction. The novel ITS-3 database includes 207 chemicals with a full set of in vivo and in vitro data. The accuracy for predicting LLNA outcomes on the external test set (n = 60) was as follows: hazard (two classes)-100 %, GHS potency classification (three classes)-96 %, potency (four classes)-89 %. This work demonstrates that skin sensitization potency prediction based on data from three key events, and often less, is possible, reliable over broad chemical classes and ready for practical applications. PMID:26612363

  5. Foundations for Reasoning in Cognition-Based Computational Representations of Human Decision Making

    SciTech Connect

    SENGLAUB, MICHAEL E.; HARRIS, DAVID L.; RAYBOURN, ELAINE M.

    2001-11-01

    In exploring the question of how humans reason in ambiguous situations or in the absence of complete information, we stumbled onto a body of knowledge that addresses issues beyond the original scope of our effort. We have begun to understand the importance that philosophy, in particular the work of C. S. Peirce, plays in developing models of human cognition and of information theory in general. We have a foundation that can serve as a basis for further studies in cognition and decision making. Peircean philosophy provides a foundation for understanding human reasoning and capturing behavioral characteristics of decision makers due to cultural, physiological, and psychological effects. The present paper describes this philosophical approach to understanding the underpinnings of human reasoning. We present the work of C. S. Peirce, and define sets of fundamental reasoning behavior that would be captured in the mathematical constructs of these newer technologies and would be able to interact in an agent type framework. Further, we propose the adoption of a hybrid reasoning model based on his work for future computational representations or emulations of human cognition.

  6. A SCORING SYSTEM TO IMPROVE DECISION MAKING AND OUTCOMES IN THE ADAPTATION OF RECENTLY CAPTURED WHITE RHINOCEROSES (CERATOTHERIUM SIMUM) TO CAPTIVITY.

    PubMed

    Miller, Michele; Kruger, Milandie; Kruger, Marius; Olea-Popelka, Francisco; Buss, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Ninety-four subadult and adult white rhinoceroses (Ceratotherium simum) were captured between February and October, 2009-11, in Kruger National Park and placed in holding bomas prior to translocation to other locations within South Africa. A simple three-category system was developed based on appetite, fecal consistency/volume, and behavior to assess adaptation to bomas. Individual animal and group daily median scores were used to determine trends and when rhinoceroses had successfully adapted to the boma. Seventeen rhinoceroses did not adapt to boma confinement, and 16 were released (1 mortality). No differences in boma scores were observed between rhinoceroses that adapted and those that did not, until day 8, when the first significant differences were observed (adapted score=13 versus nonadapted score=10). The time to reach a boma score determined as successful adaptation (median 19 d) matched subjective observations, which was approximately 3 wk for most rhinoceroses. Unsuccessful adaptation was indicated by an individual boma score of less than 15, typically during the first 2 wk, or a declining trend in scores within the first 7-14 d. This scoring system can be used for most locations and could also be easily adapted to other areas in which rhinoceroses are held in captivity. This tool also provides important information for assessing welfare in newly captured rhinoceroses.

  7. A SCORING SYSTEM TO IMPROVE DECISION MAKING AND OUTCOMES IN THE ADAPTATION OF RECENTLY CAPTURED WHITE RHINOCEROSES (CERATOTHERIUM SIMUM) TO CAPTIVITY.

    PubMed

    Miller, Michele; Kruger, Milandie; Kruger, Marius; Olea-Popelka, Francisco; Buss, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Ninety-four subadult and adult white rhinoceroses (Ceratotherium simum) were captured between February and October, 2009-11, in Kruger National Park and placed in holding bomas prior to translocation to other locations within South Africa. A simple three-category system was developed based on appetite, fecal consistency/volume, and behavior to assess adaptation to bomas. Individual animal and group daily median scores were used to determine trends and when rhinoceroses had successfully adapted to the boma. Seventeen rhinoceroses did not adapt to boma confinement, and 16 were released (1 mortality). No differences in boma scores were observed between rhinoceroses that adapted and those that did not, until day 8, when the first significant differences were observed (adapted score=13 versus nonadapted score=10). The time to reach a boma score determined as successful adaptation (median 19 d) matched subjective observations, which was approximately 3 wk for most rhinoceroses. Unsuccessful adaptation was indicated by an individual boma score of less than 15, typically during the first 2 wk, or a declining trend in scores within the first 7-14 d. This scoring system can be used for most locations and could also be easily adapted to other areas in which rhinoceroses are held in captivity. This tool also provides important information for assessing welfare in newly captured rhinoceroses. PMID:26845302

  8. Water Resource Adaptation Program

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Water Resource Adaptation Program (WRAP) contributes to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) efforts to provide water resource managers and decision makers with the tools needed to adapt water resources to demographic and economic development, and future clim...

  9. A Closer Look at the Effects of Repeated Cocaine Exposure on Adaptive Decision-Making under Conditions That Promote Goal-Directed Control.

    PubMed

    Halbout, Briac; Liu, Angela T; Ostlund, Sean B

    2016-01-01

    It has been proposed that compulsive drug seeking reflects an underlying dysregulation in adaptive behavior that favors habitual (automatic and inflexible) over goal-directed (deliberative and highly flexible) action selection. Rodent studies have established that repeated exposure to cocaine or amphetamine facilitates the development of habits, producing behavior that becomes unusually insensitive to a reduction in the value of its outcome. The current study more directly investigated the effects of cocaine pre-exposure on goal-directed learning and action selection using an approach that discourages habitual performance. After undergoing a 15-day series of cocaine (15 or 30 mg/kg, i.p.) or saline injections and a drug withdrawal period, rats were trained to perform two different lever-press actions for distinct reward options. During a subsequent outcome devaluation test, both cocaine- and saline-treated rats showed a robust bias in their choice between the two actions, preferring whichever action had been trained with the reward that retained its value. Thus, it appears that the tendency for repeated cocaine exposure to promote habit formation does not extend to a more complex behavioral scenario that encourages goal-directed control. To further explore this issue, we assessed how prior cocaine treatment would affect the rats' ability to learn about a selective reduction in the predictive relationship between one of the two actions and its outcome, which is another fundamental feature of goal-directed behavior. Interestingly, we found that cocaine-treated rats showed enhanced, rather than diminished, sensitivity to this action-outcome contingency degradation manipulation. Given their mutual dependence on striatal dopamine signaling, we suggest that cocaine's effects on habit formation and contingency learning may stem from a common adaptation in this neurochemical system. PMID:27047400

  10. A Closer Look at the Effects of Repeated Cocaine Exposure on Adaptive Decision-Making under Conditions That Promote Goal-Directed Control

    PubMed Central

    Halbout, Briac; Liu, Angela T.; Ostlund, Sean B.

    2016-01-01

    It has been proposed that compulsive drug seeking reflects an underlying dysregulation in adaptive behavior that favors habitual (automatic and inflexible) over goal-directed (deliberative and highly flexible) action selection. Rodent studies have established that repeated exposure to cocaine or amphetamine facilitates the development of habits, producing behavior that becomes unusually insensitive to a reduction in the value of its outcome. The current study more directly investigated the effects of cocaine pre-exposure on goal-directed learning and action selection using an approach that discourages habitual performance. After undergoing a 15-day series of cocaine (15 or 30 mg/kg, i.p.) or saline injections and a drug withdrawal period, rats were trained to perform two different lever-press actions for distinct reward options. During a subsequent outcome devaluation test, both cocaine- and saline-treated rats showed a robust bias in their choice between the two actions, preferring whichever action had been trained with the reward that retained its value. Thus, it appears that the tendency for repeated cocaine exposure to promote habit formation does not extend to a more complex behavioral scenario that encourages goal-directed control. To further explore this issue, we assessed how prior cocaine treatment would affect the rats’ ability to learn about a selective reduction in the predictive relationship between one of the two actions and its outcome, which is another fundamental feature of goal-directed behavior. Interestingly, we found that cocaine-treated rats showed enhanced, rather than diminished, sensitivity to this action–outcome contingency degradation manipulation. Given their mutual dependence on striatal dopamine signaling, we suggest that cocaine’s effects on habit formation and contingency learning may stem from a common adaptation in this neurochemical system. PMID:27047400

  11. Enabling Philippine Farmers to Adapt to Climate Variability Using Seasonal Climate and Weather Forecast with a Crop Simulation Model in an SMS-based Farmer Decision Support System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebardaloza, J. B. R.; Trogo, R.; Sabido, D. J.; Tongson, E.; Bagtasa, G.; Balderama, O. F.

    2015-12-01

    Corn farms in the Philippines are rainfed farms, hence, it is of utmost importance to choose the start of planting date so that the critical growth stages that are in need of water will fall on dates when there is rain. Most farmers in the Philippines use superstitions and traditions as basis for farming decisions such as when to start planting [1]. Before climate change, superstitions like planting after a feast day of a saint has worked for them but with the recent progression of climate change, farmers now recognize that there is a need for technological intervention [1]. The application discussed in this paper presents a solution that makes use of meteorological station sensors, localized seasonal climate forecast, localized weather forecast and a crop simulation model to provide recommendations to farmers based on the crop cultivar, soil type and fertilizer type used by farmers. It is critical that the recommendations given to farmers are not generic as each farmer would have different needs based on their cultivar, soil, fertilizer, planting schedule and even location [2]. This application allows the farmer to inquire about whether it will rain in the next seven days, the best date to start planting based on the potential yield upon harvest, when to apply fertilizer and by how much, when to water and by how much. Short messaging service (SMS) is the medium chosen for this application because while mobile penetration in the Philippines is as high as 101%, the smart phone penetration is only at 15% [3]. SMS has been selected as it has been identified as the most effective way of reaching farmers with timely agricultural information and knowledge [4,5]. The recommendations while derived from making use of Automated Weather Station (AWS) sensor data, Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) models and DSSAT 4.5 [9], are translated into the local language of the farmers and in a format that is easily understood as recommended in [6,7,8]. A pilot study has been started

  12. Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation Plans in California: A Guide and Online Visualization Tool for Planners to Incorporate Risks of Climate Change Impacts in Policy and Decision-Making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, W.; Tucker, K.; DeFlorio, J.

    2012-12-01

    for the strategy framework. The strategy framework for MPOs and RTPAs is used to: 1) Assess the relative risks to their transportation system infrastructure and services of different climate stressors (sea level rise, temperature changes, snow melt, precipita¬tion changes, flooding, extreme weather events); 2) Conduct an asset inventory and vulnerability assessment of existing infrastructure; 3) Prioritize segments and facilities for adaptation action; 4) Identify appropriate and cost-effective adaptation strategies; and 5) Incorporate climate impact considerations into future long-range transportation planning and investment decisions. This framework complements the broader planning and investment processes that MPOs and RTPAs already manage. It recognizes the varying capacities and resources among MPOs and RTPAs and provide methods that can be used by organizations seeking to conduct in-depth analysis or a more sketch-level assessment.

  13. A holistic strategy for adaptive land management

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management. Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adapta...

  14. Composite collective decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Czaczkes, Tomer J.; Czaczkes, Benjamin; Iglhaut, Carolin; Heinze, Jürgen

    2015-01-01

    Individual animals are adept at making decisions and have cognitive abilities, such as memory, which allow them to hone their decisions. Social animals can also share information. This allows social animals to make adaptive group-level decisions. Both individual and collective decision-making systems also have drawbacks and limitations, and while both are well studied, the interaction between them is still poorly understood. Here, we study how individual and collective decision-making interact during ant foraging. We first gathered empirical data on memory-based foraging persistence in the ant Lasius niger. We used these data to create an agent-based model where ants may use social information (trail pheromones), private information (memories) or both to make foraging decisions. The combined use of social and private information by individuals results in greater efficiency at the group level than when either information source was used alone. The modelled ants couple consensus decision-making, allowing them to quickly exploit high-quality food sources, and combined decision-making, allowing different individuals to specialize in exploiting different resource patches. Such a composite collective decision-making system reaps the benefits of both its constituent parts. Exploiting such insights into composite collective decision-making may lead to improved decision-making algorithms. PMID:26019155

  15. Composite collective decision-making.

    PubMed

    Czaczkes, Tomer J; Czaczkes, Benjamin; Iglhaut, Carolin; Heinze, Jürgen

    2015-06-22

    Individual animals are adept at making decisions and have cognitive abilities, such as memory, which allow them to hone their decisions. Social animals can also share information. This allows social animals to make adaptive group-level decisions. Both individual and collective decision-making systems also have drawbacks and limitations, and while both are well studied, the interaction between them is still poorly understood. Here, we study how individual and collective decision-making interact during ant foraging. We first gathered empirical data on memory-based foraging persistence in the ant Lasius niger. We used these data to create an agent-based model where ants may use social information (trail pheromones), private information (memories) or both to make foraging decisions. The combined use of social and private information by individuals results in greater efficiency at the group level than when either information source was used alone. The modelled ants couple consensus decision-making, allowing them to quickly exploit high-quality food sources, and combined decision-making, allowing different individuals to specialize in exploiting different resource patches. Such a composite collective decision-making system reaps the benefits of both its constituent parts. Exploiting such insights into composite collective decision-making may lead to improved decision-making algorithms.

  16. Composite collective decision-making.

    PubMed

    Czaczkes, Tomer J; Czaczkes, Benjamin; Iglhaut, Carolin; Heinze, Jürgen

    2015-06-22

    Individual animals are adept at making decisions and have cognitive abilities, such as memory, which allow them to hone their decisions. Social animals can also share information. This allows social animals to make adaptive group-level decisions. Both individual and collective decision-making systems also have drawbacks and limitations, and while both are well studied, the interaction between them is still poorly understood. Here, we study how individual and collective decision-making interact during ant foraging. We first gathered empirical data on memory-based foraging persistence in the ant Lasius niger. We used these data to create an agent-based model where ants may use social information (trail pheromones), private information (memories) or both to make foraging decisions. The combined use of social and private information by individuals results in greater efficiency at the group level than when either information source was used alone. The modelled ants couple consensus decision-making, allowing them to quickly exploit high-quality food sources, and combined decision-making, allowing different individuals to specialize in exploiting different resource patches. Such a composite collective decision-making system reaps the benefits of both its constituent parts. Exploiting such insights into composite collective decision-making may lead to improved decision-making algorithms. PMID:26019155

  17. Adaptive Criterion Setting in Perceptual Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stuttgen, Maik C.; Yildiz, Ali; Gunturkun, Onur

    2011-01-01

    Pigeons responded in a perceptual categorization task with six different stimuli (shades of gray), three of which were to be classified as "light" or "dark", respectively. Reinforcement probability for correct responses was varied from 0.2 to 0.6 across blocks of sessions and was unequal for correct light and dark responses. Introduction of a new…

  18. To Adapt or Not to Adapt: Navigating an Implementation Conundrum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leko, Melinda M.

    2015-01-01

    Maximizing the effectiveness of evidence-based practices (EBPs) requires an optimal balance of implementation fidelity and adaptation so EBPs fit local contexts and meet the individual learning needs of students with disabilities. The framework for classifying adaptations presented in this article can help educators make decisions about whether…

  19. Single-photon decision maker

    PubMed Central

    Naruse, Makoto; Berthel, Martin; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Aono, Masashi; Hori, Hirokazu; Kim, Song-Ju

    2015-01-01

    Decision making is critical in our daily lives and for society in general and is finding evermore practical applications in information and communication technologies. Herein, we demonstrate experimentally that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. Using a nitrogen-vacancy in a nanodiamond as a single-photon source, we demonstrate the decision-making capability by solving the multi-armed bandit problem. This capability is directly and immediately associated with single-photon detection in the proposed architecture, leading to adequate and adaptive autonomous decision making. This study makes it possible to create systems that benefit from the quantum nature of light to perform practical and vital intelligent functions. PMID:26278007

  20. Single-photon decision maker

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naruse, Makoto; Berthel, Martin; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Aono, Masashi; Hori, Hirokazu; Kim, Song-Ju

    2015-08-01

    Decision making is critical in our daily lives and for society in general and is finding evermore practical applications in information and communication technologies. Herein, we demonstrate experimentally that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. Using a nitrogen-vacancy in a nanodiamond as a single-photon source, we demonstrate the decision-making capability by solving the multi-armed bandit problem. This capability is directly and immediately associated with single-photon detection in the proposed architecture, leading to adequate and adaptive autonomous decision making. This study makes it possible to create systems that benefit from the quantum nature of light to perform practical and vital intelligent functions.

  1. Adaptive Management

    EPA Science Inventory

    Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management where knowledge is incomplete, and when, despite inherent uncertainty, managers and policymakers must act. Unlike a traditional trial and error approach, adaptive managem...

  2. The Robust Beauty of Majority Rules in Group Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hastie, Reid; Kameda, Tatsuya

    2005-01-01

    How should groups make decisions? The authors provide an original evaluation of 9 group decision rules based on their adaptive success in a simulated test bed environment. When the adaptive success standard is applied, the majority and plurality rules fare quite well, performing at levels comparable to much more resource-demanding rules such as an…

  3. Heuristic decision making.

    PubMed

    Gigerenzer, Gerd; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang

    2011-01-01

    As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes, conscious or unconscious, that ignore part of the information. Because using heuristics saves effort, the classical view has been that heuristic decisions imply greater errors than do "rational" decisions as defined by logic or statistical models. However, for many decisions, the assumptions of rational models are not met, and it is an empirical rather than an a priori issue how well cognitive heuristics function in an uncertain world. To answer both the descriptive question ("Which heuristics do people use in which situations?") and the prescriptive question ("When should people rely on a given heuristic rather than a complex strategy to make better judgments?"), formal models are indispensable. We review research that tests formal models of heuristic inference, including in business organizations, health care, and legal institutions. This research indicates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristics in an adaptive way, and (b) ignoring part of the information can lead to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for low predictability and small samples. The big future challenge is to develop a systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristics as well as the core capacities and environmental structures these exploit.

  4. Learning and Teaching Critical Thinking: From a Peircean Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wells, Kelley

    2009-01-01

    The article will argue that Charles Sanders Peirce's concepts of the "Dynamics of Belief and Doubt", the "Fixation of Belief" as well as "habits of belief" taken together comprise a theory of learning. The "dynamics of belief and doubt" are Peirce's explanation for the process of changing from one belief to another. Teaching, then, would be an…

  5. Evolution, Learning, and Semiotics from a Peircean Point of View

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Otte, Michael Friedrich

    2011-01-01

    One of the most salient arguments in favor of a semiotic approach, put forward on various occasions among others by Luis Radford, claims that semiotics is most appropriate to treat the interaction between socio-cultural and objective aspects of knowledge problems. But if we want to take such claims seriously, we have to undertake revisions of our…

  6. Mathematical Epistemology from a Peircean Semiotic Point of View

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Otte, Michael

    2006-01-01

    Learning is better than knowing, generalization is more illuminating than abstract generality or universality because we perceive and thus become conscious of change or development only. Signs and representations establish the dialectic of fixation on the one hand and transformation on the other, which is so essential to learning and cognition.…

  7. Decision Making in Recurrent Neuronal Circuits

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xiao-Jing

    2009-01-01

    Decision making has recently emerged as a central theme in neurophysiological studies of cognition, and experimental and computational work has led to the proposal of a cortical circuit mechanism of elemental decision computations. This mechanism depends on slow recurrent synaptic excitation balanced by fast feedback inhibition, which not only instantiates attractor states for forming categorical choices but also long transients for gradually accumulating evidence in favor of or against alternative options. Such a circuit endowed with reward-dependent synaptic plasticity is able to produce adaptive choice behavior. While decision threshold is a core concept for reaction time tasks, it can be dissociated from a general decision rule. Moreover, perceptual decisions and value-based economic choices are described within a unified framework in which probabilistic choices result from irregular neuronal activity as well as iterative interactions of a decision maker with an uncertain environment or other unpredictable decision makers in a social group. PMID:18957215

  8. Fireplace adapters

    SciTech Connect

    Hunt, R.L.

    1983-12-27

    An adapter is disclosed for use with a fireplace. The stove pipe of a stove standing in a room to be heated may be connected to the flue of the chimney so that products of combustion from the stove may be safely exhausted through the flue and outwardly of the chimney. The adapter may be easily installed within the fireplace by removing the damper plate and fitting the adapter to the damper frame. Each of a pair of bolts has a portion which hooks over a portion of the damper frame and a threaded end depending from the hook portion and extending through a hole in the adapter. Nuts are threaded on the bolts and are adapted to force the adapter into a tight fit with the adapter frame.

  9. Making Career Decisions--A Sequential Elimination Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gati, Itamar

    1986-01-01

    Presents a model for career decision making based on the sequential elimination of occupational alternatives, an adaptation for career decisions of Tversky's (1972) elimination-by-aspects theory of choice. The expected utility approach is reviewed as a representative compensatory model for career decisions. Advantages, disadvantages, and…

  10. Making Sustainable Decisions Using the KONVERGENCE Framework

    SciTech Connect

    Piet, Steven James; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Dakins, Maxine Ellen

    2003-02-01

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. “Cleanup” includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done - some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches, including: • New ways (mental model) to analyze and visualize the problem, • Awareness of the option to shift strategy or reframe from a single decision to an adaptable network of decisions, and • Improved tactical processes that account for several challenges. These include the following: • Stakeholder values are a more fundamental basis for decision making and keeping than “meeting regulations.” • Late-entry players and future generations will question decisions. • People may resist making “irreversible” decisions. • People need “compelling reasons” to take action in the face of uncertainties. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period—from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept “as is” or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: • Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? • Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? • Resources: what is available to implement

  11. Ignorance- versus Evidence-Based Decision Making: A Decision Time Analysis of the Recognition Heuristic

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilbig, Benjamin E.; Pohl, Rudiger F.

    2009-01-01

    According to part of the adaptive toolbox notion of decision making known as the recognition heuristic (RH), the decision process in comparative judgments--and its duration--is determined by whether recognition discriminates between objects. By contrast, some recently proposed alternative models predict that choices largely depend on the amount of…

  12. Adaptive SPECT

    PubMed Central

    Barrett, Harrison H.; Furenlid, Lars R.; Freed, Melanie; Hesterman, Jacob Y.; Kupinski, Matthew A.; Clarkson, Eric; Whitaker, Meredith K.

    2008-01-01

    Adaptive imaging systems alter their data-acquisition configuration or protocol in response to the image information received. An adaptive pinhole single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) system might acquire an initial scout image to obtain preliminary information about the radiotracer distribution and then adjust the configuration or sizes of the pinholes, the magnifications, or the projection angles in order to improve performance. This paper briefly describes two small-animal SPECT systems that allow this flexibility and then presents a framework for evaluating adaptive systems in general, and adaptive SPECT systems in particular. The evaluation is in terms of the performance of linear observers on detection or estimation tasks. Expressions are derived for the ideal linear (Hotelling) observer and the ideal linear (Wiener) estimator with adaptive imaging. Detailed expressions for the performance figures of merit are given, and possible adaptation rules are discussed. PMID:18541485

  13. Adaptive Computing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harrell, William

    1999-01-01

    Provides information on various adaptive technology resources available to people with disabilities. (Contains 19 references, an annotated list of 129 websites, and 12 additional print resources.) (JOW)

  14. Contour adaptation.

    PubMed

    Anstis, Stuart

    2013-01-01

    It is known that adaptation to a disk that flickers between black and white at 3-8 Hz on a gray surround renders invisible a congruent gray test disk viewed afterwards. This is contrast adaptation. We now report that adapting simply to the flickering circular outline of the disk can have the same effect. We call this "contour adaptation." This adaptation does not transfer interocularly, and apparently applies only to luminance, not color. One can adapt selectively to only some of the contours in a display, making only these contours temporarily invisible. For instance, a plaid comprises a vertical grating superimposed on a horizontal grating. If one first adapts to appropriate flickering vertical lines, the vertical components of the plaid disappears and it looks like a horizontal grating. Also, we simulated a Cornsweet (1970) edge, and we selectively adapted out the subjective and objective contours of a Kanisza (1976) subjective square. By temporarily removing edges, contour adaptation offers a new technique to study the role of visual edges, and it demonstrates how brightness information is concentrated in edges and propagates from them as it fills in surfaces.

  15. Making Sustainable Decisions Using The KONVERGENCE Framework

    SciTech Connect

    Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.

    2003-02-25

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases.

  16. Classifying climate change adaptation frameworks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armstrong, Jennifer

    2014-05-01

    Complex socio-ecological demographics are factors that must be considered when addressing adaptation to the potential effects of climate change. As such, a suite of deployable climate change adaptation frameworks is necessary. Multiple frameworks that are required to communicate the risks of climate change and facilitate adaptation. Three principal adaptation frameworks have emerged from the literature; Scenario - Led (SL), Vulnerability - Led (VL) and Decision - Centric (DC). This study aims to identify to what extent these adaptation frameworks; either, planned or deployed are used in a neighbourhood vulnerable to climate change. This work presents a criterion that may be used as a tool for identifying the hallmarks of adaptation frameworks and thus enabling categorisation of projects. The study focussed on the coastal zone surrounding the Sizewell nuclear power plant in Suffolk in the UK. An online survey was conducted identifying climate change adaptation projects operating in the study area. This inventory was analysed to identify the hallmarks of each adaptation project; Levels of dependency on climate model information, Metrics/units of analysis utilised, Level of demographic knowledge, Level of stakeholder engagement, Adaptation implementation strategies and Scale of adaptation implementation. The study found that climate change adaptation projects could be categorised, based on the hallmarks identified, in accordance with the published literature. As such, the criterion may be used to establish the matrix of adaptation frameworks present in a given area. A comprehensive summary of the nature of adaptation frameworks in operation in a locality provides a platform for further comparative analysis. Such analysis, enabled by the criterion, may aid the selection of appropriate frameworks enhancing the efficacy of climate change adaptation.

  17. Climate adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kinzig, Ann P.

    2015-03-01

    This paper is intended as a brief introduction to climate adaptation in a conference devoted otherwise to the physics of sustainable energy. Whereas mitigation involves measures to reduce the probability of a potential event, such as climate change, adaptation refers to actions that lessen the impact of climate change. Mitigation and adaptation differ in other ways as well. Adaptation does not necessarily have to be implemented immediately to be effective; it only needs to be in place before the threat arrives. Also, adaptation does not necessarily require global, coordinated action; many effective adaptation actions can be local. Some urban communities, because of land-use change and the urban heat-island effect, currently face changes similar to some expected under climate change, such as changes in water availability, heat-related morbidity, or changes in disease patterns. Concern over those impacts might motivate the implementation of measures that would also help in climate adaptation, despite skepticism among some policy makers about anthropogenic global warming. Studies of ancient civilizations in the southwestern US lends some insight into factors that may or may not be important to successful adaptation.

  18. Hydropower, Adaptive Management, and Biodiversity

    PubMed

    WIERINGA; MORTON

    1996-11-01

    / Adaptive management is a policy framework within which an iterative process of decision making is followed based on the observed responses to and effectiveness of previous decisions. The use of adaptive management allows science-based research and monitoring of natural resource and ecological community responses, in conjunction with societal values and goals, to guide decisions concerning man's activities. The adaptive management process has been proposed for application to hydropower operations at Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River, a situation that requires complex balancing of natural resources requirements and competing human uses. This example is representative of the general increase in public interest in the operation of hydropower facilities and possible effects on downstream natural resources and of the growing conflicts between uses and users of river-based resources. This paper describes the adaptive management process, using the Glen Canyon Dam example, and discusses ways to make the process work effectively in managing downstream natural resources and biodiversity. KEY WORDS: Adaptive management; Biodiversity; Hydropower; Glen Canyon Dam; Ecology

  19. Adaptive management of natural resources-framework and issues

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, B.K.

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive management, an approach for simultaneously managing and learning about natural resources, has been around for several decades. Interest in adaptive decision making has grown steadily over that time, and by now many in natural resources conservation claim that adaptive management is the approach they use in meeting their resource management responsibilities. Yet there remains considerable ambiguity about what adaptive management actually is, and how it is to be implemented by practitioners. The objective of this paper is to present a framework and conditions for adaptive decision making, and discuss some important challenges in its application. Adaptive management is described as a two-phase process of deliberative and iterative phases, which are implemented sequentially over the timeframe of an application. Key elements, processes, and issues in adaptive decision making are highlighted in terms of this framework. Special emphasis is given to the question of geographic scale, the difficulties presented by non-stationarity, and organizational challenges in implementing adaptive management. ?? 2010.

  20. Investigations in adaptive processing of multispectral data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kriegler, F. J.; Horwitz, H. M.

    1973-01-01

    Adaptive data processing procedures are applied to the problem of classifying objects in a scene scanned by multispectral sensor. These procedures show a performance improvement over standard nonadaptive techniques. Some sources of error in classification are identified and those correctable by adaptive processing are discussed. Experiments in adaptation of signature means by decision-directed methods are described. Some of these methods assume correlation between the trajectories of different signature means; for others this assumption is not made.

  1. Adaptive response modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campa, Alessandro; Esposito, Giuseppe; Belli, Mauro

    Cellular response to radiation is often modified by a previous delivery of a small "priming" dose: a smaller amount of damage, defined by the end point being investigated, is observed, and for this reason the effect is called adaptive response. An improved understanding of this effect is essential (as much as for the case of the bystander effect) for a reliable radiation risk assessment when low dose irradiations are involved. Experiments on adaptive response have shown that there are a number of factors that strongly influence the occurrence (and the level) of the adaptation. In particular, priming doses and dose rates have to fall in defined ranges; the same is true for the time interval between the delivery of the small priming dose and the irradiation with the main, larger, dose (called in this case challenging dose). Different hypotheses can be formulated on the main mechanism(s) determining the adaptive response: an increased efficiency of DNA repair, an increased level of antioxidant enzymes, an alteration of cell cycle progression, a chromatin conformation change. An experimental clearcut evidence going definitely in the direction of one of these explanations is not yet available. Modelling can be done at different levels. Simple models, relating the amount of damage, through elementary differential equations, to the dose and dose rate experienced by the cell, are relatively easy to handle, and they can be modified to account for the priming irradiation. However, this can hardly be of decisive help in the explanation of the mechanisms, since each parameter of these models often incorporates in an effective way several cellular processes related to the response to radiation. In this presentation we show our attempts to describe adaptive response with models that explicitly contain, as a dynamical variable, the inducible adaptive agent. At a price of a more difficult treatment, this approach is probably more prone to give support to the experimental studies

  2. Toothbrush Adaptations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Exceptional Parent, 1987

    1987-01-01

    Suggestions are presented for helping disabled individuals learn to use or adapt toothbrushes for proper dental care. A directory lists dental health instructional materials available from various organizations. (CB)

  3. Incorporating geodiversity into conservation decisions.

    PubMed

    Comer, Patrick J; Pressey, Robert L; Hunter, Malcolm L; Schloss, Carrie A; Buttrick, Steven C; Heller, Nicole E; Tirpak, John M; Faith, Daniel P; Cross, Molly S; Shaffer, Mark L

    2015-06-01

    In a rapidly changing climate, conservation practitioners could better use geodiversity in a broad range of conservation decisions. We explored selected avenues through which this integration might improve decision making and organized them within the adaptive management cycle of assessment, planning, implementation, and monitoring. Geodiversity is seldom referenced in predominant environmental law and policy. With most natural resource agencies mandated to conserve certain categories of species, agency personnel are challenged to find ways to practically implement new directives aimed at coping with climate change while retaining their species-centered mandate. Ecoregions and ecological classifications provide clear mechanisms to consider geodiversity in plans or decisions, the inclusion of which will help foster the resilience of conservation to climate change. Methods for biodiversity assessment, such as gap analysis, climate change vulnerability analysis, and ecological process modeling, can readily accommodate inclusion of a geophysical component. We adapted others' approaches for characterizing landscapes along a continuum of climate change vulnerability for the biota they support from resistant, to resilient, to susceptible, and to sensitive and then summarized options for integrating geodiversity into planning in each landscape type. In landscapes that are relatively resistant to climate change, options exist to fully represent geodiversity while ensuring that dynamic ecological processes can change over time. In more susceptible landscapes, strategies aiming to maintain or restore ecosystem resilience and connectivity are paramount. Implementing actions on the ground requires understanding of geophysical constraints on species and an increasingly nimble approach to establishing management and restoration goals. Because decisions that are implemented today will be revisited and amended into the future, increasingly sophisticated forms of monitoring and

  4. Incorporating geodiversity into conservation decisions.

    PubMed

    Comer, Patrick J; Pressey, Robert L; Hunter, Malcolm L; Schloss, Carrie A; Buttrick, Steven C; Heller, Nicole E; Tirpak, John M; Faith, Daniel P; Cross, Molly S; Shaffer, Mark L

    2015-06-01

    In a rapidly changing climate, conservation practitioners could better use geodiversity in a broad range of conservation decisions. We explored selected avenues through which this integration might improve decision making and organized them within the adaptive management cycle of assessment, planning, implementation, and monitoring. Geodiversity is seldom referenced in predominant environmental law and policy. With most natural resource agencies mandated to conserve certain categories of species, agency personnel are challenged to find ways to practically implement new directives aimed at coping with climate change while retaining their species-centered mandate. Ecoregions and ecological classifications provide clear mechanisms to consider geodiversity in plans or decisions, the inclusion of which will help foster the resilience of conservation to climate change. Methods for biodiversity assessment, such as gap analysis, climate change vulnerability analysis, and ecological process modeling, can readily accommodate inclusion of a geophysical component. We adapted others' approaches for characterizing landscapes along a continuum of climate change vulnerability for the biota they support from resistant, to resilient, to susceptible, and to sensitive and then summarized options for integrating geodiversity into planning in each landscape type. In landscapes that are relatively resistant to climate change, options exist to fully represent geodiversity while ensuring that dynamic ecological processes can change over time. In more susceptible landscapes, strategies aiming to maintain or restore ecosystem resilience and connectivity are paramount. Implementing actions on the ground requires understanding of geophysical constraints on species and an increasingly nimble approach to establishing management and restoration goals. Because decisions that are implemented today will be revisited and amended into the future, increasingly sophisticated forms of monitoring and

  5. Counseling for Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smaby, Marlowe H.; Tamminen, Armas W.

    1978-01-01

    This article presents a model for training counselors to help counselees in the process of making decisions. An effective decision-helping approach that includes processing decisions, relating values to process, and relating actions to beliefs is presented. (Author)

  6. A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions

    PubMed Central

    Krajbich, Ian; Hare, Todd; Bartling, Björn; Morishima, Yosuke; Fehr, Ernst

    2015-01-01

    People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others’ benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making. PMID:26460812

  7. A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions.

    PubMed

    Krajbich, Ian; Hare, Todd; Bartling, Björn; Morishima, Yosuke; Fehr, Ernst

    2015-10-01

    People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.

  8. A control-theory model for human decision-making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levison, W. H.; Tanner, R. B.

    1971-01-01

    A model for human decision making is an adaptation of an optimal control model for pilot/vehicle systems. The models for decision and control both contain concepts of time delay, observation noise, optimal prediction, and optimal estimation. The decision making model was intended for situations in which the human bases his decision on his estimate of the state of a linear plant. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (a) single decision tasks, (b) two-decision tasks, and (c) simultaneous manual control and decision making. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance can be predicted to within an accuracy of 10 percent. Agreement is less good for the simultaneous decision and control situation.

  9. A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions.

    PubMed

    Krajbich, Ian; Hare, Todd; Bartling, Björn; Morishima, Yosuke; Fehr, Ernst

    2015-10-01

    People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making. PMID:26460812

  10. Hydropower, adaptive management, and biodiversity

    SciTech Connect

    Wieringa, M.J.; Morton, A.G.

    1996-11-01

    Adaptive management is a policy framework within which an iterative process of decision making is allowed based on the observed responses to and effectiveness of previous decisions. The use of adaptive management allows science-based research and monitoring of natural resource and ecological community responses, in conjunction with societal values and goals, to guide decisions concerning man`s activities. The adaptive management process has been proposed for application to hydropower operations at Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River, a situation that requires complex balancing of natural resources requirements and competing human uses. This example is representative of the general increase in public interest in the operation of hydropower facilities and possible effects on downstream natural resources and of the growing conflicts between uses and users of river-based resources. This paper describes the adaptive management process, using the Glen Canyon Dam example, and discusses ways to make the process work effectively in managing downstream natural resources and biodiversity. 10 refs., 2 figs.

  11. Adaptive Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The goal of this research is to develop and demonstrate innovative adaptive seal technologies that can lead to dramatic improvements in engine performance, life, range, and emissions, and enhance operability for next generation gas turbine engines. This work is concentrated on the development of self-adaptive clearance control systems for gas turbine engines. Researchers have targeted the high-pressure turbine (HPT) blade tip seal location for following reasons: Current active clearance control (ACC) systems (e.g., thermal case-cooling schemes) cannot respond to blade tip clearance changes due to mechanical, thermal, and aerodynamic loads. As such they are prone to wear due to the required tight running clearances during operation. Blade tip seal wear (increased clearances) reduces engine efficiency, performance, and service life. Adaptive sealing technology research has inherent impact on all envisioned 21st century propulsion systems (e.g. distributed vectored, hybrid and electric drive propulsion concepts).

  12. Adaptive management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management where knowledge is incomplete, and when, despite inherent uncertainty, managers and policymakers must act. Unlike a traditional trial and error approach, adaptive management has explicit structure, including a careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. The process is iterative, and serves to reduce uncertainty, build knowledge and improve management over time in a goal-oriented and structured process.

  13. Modeling collective & intelligent decision making of multi-cellular populations.

    PubMed

    Shin, Yong-Jun; Mahrou, Bahareh

    2014-01-01

    In the presence of unpredictable disturbances and uncertainties, cells intelligently achieve their goals by sharing information via cell-cell communication and making collective decisions, which are more reliable compared to individual decisions. Inspired by adaptive sensor network algorithms studied in communication engineering, we propose that a multi-cellular adaptive network can convert unreliable decisions by individual cells into a more reliable cell-population decision. It is demonstrated using the effector T helper (a type of immune cell) population, which plays a critical role in initiating immune reactions in response to invading foreign agents (e.g., viruses, bacteria, etc.). While each individual cell follows a simple adaptation rule, it is the combined coordination among multiple cells that leads to the manifestation of "self-organizing" decision making via cell-cell communication.

  14. Adaptive Thresholds

    SciTech Connect

    Bremer, P. -T.

    2014-08-26

    ADAPT is a topological analysis code that allow to compute local threshold, in particular relevance based thresholds for features defined in scalar fields. The initial target application is vortex detection but the software is more generally applicable to all threshold based feature definitions.

  15. Reducing uncertainty about objective functions in adaptive management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, B.K.

    2012-01-01

    This paper extends the uncertainty framework of adaptive management to include uncertainty about the objectives to be used in guiding decisions. Adaptive decision making typically assumes explicit and agreed-upon objectives for management, but allows for uncertainty as to the structure of the decision process that generates change through time. Yet it is not unusual for there to be uncertainty (or disagreement) about objectives, with different stakeholders expressing different views not only about resource responses to management but also about the appropriate management objectives. In this paper I extend the treatment of uncertainty in adaptive management, and describe a stochastic structure for the joint occurrence of uncertainty about objectives as well as models, and show how adaptive decision making and the assessment of post-decision monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties of both kinds. Different degrees of association between model and objective uncertainty lead to different patterns of learning about objectives. ?? 2011.

  16. Game theory and neural basis of social decision making

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Daeyeol

    2008-01-01

    Decision making in a social group displays two unique features. First, humans and other animals routinely alter their behaviors in response to changes in their physical and social environment. As a result, the outcomes of decisions that depend on the behaviors of multiple decision makers are difficult to predict, and this requires highly adaptive decision-making strategies. Second, decision makers may have other-regarding preferences and therefore choose their actions to improve or reduce the well-beings of others. Recently, many neurobiological studies have exploited game theory to probe the neural basis of decision making, and found that these unique features of social decision making might be reflected in the functions of brain areas involved in reward evaluation and reinforcement learning. Molecular genetic studies have also begun to identify genetic mechanisms for personal traits related to reinforcement learning and complex social decision making, further illuminating the biological basis of social behavior. PMID:18368047

  17. Game theory and neural basis of social decision making.

    PubMed

    Lee, Daeyeol

    2008-04-01

    Decision making in a social group has two distinguishing features. First, humans and other animals routinely alter their behavior in response to changes in their physical and social environment. As a result, the outcomes of decisions that depend on the behavior of multiple decision makers are difficult to predict and require highly adaptive decision-making strategies. Second, decision makers may have preferences regarding consequences to other individuals and therefore choose their actions to improve or reduce the well-being of others. Many neurobiological studies have exploited game theory to probe the neural basis of decision making and suggested that these features of social decision making might be reflected in the functions of brain areas involved in reward evaluation and reinforcement learning. Molecular genetic studies have also begun to identify genetic mechanisms for personal traits related to reinforcement learning and complex social decision making, further illuminating the biological basis of social behavior.

  18. Promoting Metacognitive Decision-Making in Teacher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griffith, Robin; Bauml, Michelle; Quebec-Fuentes, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Effective teachers are characterized by their abilities to make thoughtful, deliberate, and informed adaptations while teaching (Hoffman & Pearson, 2000). These in-the-moment teaching decisions are guided by a complex web of teacher knowledge. Raising teachers' awareness of the decisions they make on a moment-by-moment basis may aid in…

  19. Connector adapter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hacker, Scott C. (Inventor); Dean, Richard J. (Inventor); Burge, Scott W. (Inventor); Dartez, Toby W. (Inventor)

    2007-01-01

    An adapter for installing a connector to a terminal post, wherein the connector is attached to a cable, is presented. In an embodiment, the adapter is comprised of an elongated collet member having a longitudinal axis comprised of a first collet member end, a second collet member end, an outer collet member surface, and an inner collet member surface. The inner collet member surface at the first collet member end is used to engage the connector. The outer collet member surface at the first collet member end is tapered for a predetermined first length at a predetermined taper angle. The collet includes a longitudinal slot that extends along the longitudinal axis initiating at the first collet member end for a predetermined second length. The first collet member end is formed of a predetermined number of sections segregated by a predetermined number of channels and the longitudinal slot.

  20. Adaptive VFH

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Odriozola, Iñigo; Lazkano, Elena; Sierra, Basi

    2011-10-01

    This paper investigates the improvement of the Vector Field Histogram (VFH) local planning algorithm for mobile robot systems. The Adaptive Vector Field Histogram (AVFH) algorithm has been developed to improve the effectiveness of the traditional VFH path planning algorithm overcoming the side effects of using static parameters. This new algorithm permits the adaptation of planning parameters for the different type of areas in an environment. Genetic Algorithms are used to fit the best VFH parameters to each type of sector and, afterwards, every section in the map is labelled with the sector-type which best represents it. The Player/Stage simulation platform has been chosen for making all sort of tests and to prove the new algorithm's adequateness. Even though there is still much work to be carried out, the developed algorithm showed good navigation properties and turned out to be softer and more effective than the traditional VFH algorithm.

  1. Adaptive sampler

    DOEpatents

    Watson, B.L.; Aeby, I.

    1980-08-26

    An adaptive data compression device for compressing data is described. The device has a frequency content, including a plurality of digital filters for analyzing the content of the data over a plurality of frequency regions, a memory, and a control logic circuit for generating a variable rate memory clock corresponding to the analyzed frequency content of the data in the frequency region and for clocking the data into the memory in response to the variable rate memory clock.

  2. Adaptive sampler

    DOEpatents

    Watson, Bobby L.; Aeby, Ian

    1982-01-01

    An adaptive data compression device for compressing data having variable frequency content, including a plurality of digital filters for analyzing the content of the data over a plurality of frequency regions, a memory, and a control logic circuit for generating a variable rate memory clock corresponding to the analyzed frequency content of the data in the frequency region and for clocking the data into the memory in response to the variable rate memory clock.

  3. Adaptive antennas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barton, P.

    1987-04-01

    The basic principles of adaptive antennas are outlined in terms of the Wiener-Hopf expression for maximizing signal to noise ratio in an arbitrary noise environment; the analogy with generalized matched filter theory provides a useful aid to understanding. For many applications, there is insufficient information to achieve the above solution and thus non-optimum constrained null steering algorithms are also described, together with a summary of methods for preventing wanted signals being nulled by the adaptive system. The three generic approaches to adaptive weight control are discussed; correlation steepest descent, weight perturbation and direct solutions based on sample matrix conversion. The tradeoffs between hardware complexity and performance in terms of null depth and convergence rate are outlined. The sidelobe cancellor technique is described. Performance variation with jammer power and angular distribution is summarized and the key performance limitations identified. The configuration and performance characteristics of both multiple beam and phase scan array antennas are covered, with a brief discussion of performance factors.

  4. Inertia and Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Hügelschäfer, Sabine; Li, Jiahui

    2016-01-01

    Decision inertia is the tendency to repeat previous choices independently of the outcome, which can give rise to perseveration in suboptimal choices. We investigate this tendency in probability-updating tasks. Study 1 shows that, whenever decision inertia conflicts with normatively optimal behavior (Bayesian updating), error rates are larger and decisions are slower. This is consistent with a dual-process view of decision inertia as an automatic process conflicting with a more rational, controlled one. We find evidence of decision inertia in both required and autonomous decisions, but the effect of inertia is more clear in the latter. Study 2 considers more complex decision situations where further conflict arises due to reinforcement processes. We find the same effects of decision inertia when reinforcement is aligned with Bayesian updating, but if the two latter processes conflict, the effects are limited to autonomous choices. Additionally, both studies show that the tendency to rely on decision inertia is positively associated with preference for consistency.

  5. Decision-Making Procedure and Decision Quality.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burleson, Brant R.; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Strongly confirmed the hypothesis that groups employing an interacting decision procedure would produce better decisions than groups employing procedures that are either nominal (Delphi) or "staticized" (individual judgments statistically pooled). Provides clear and consistent support for the value of social interaction in small group decision…

  6. Automation: Decision Aid or Decision Maker?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Skitka, Linda J.

    1998-01-01

    This study clarified that automation bias is something unique to automated decision making contexts, and is not the result of a general tendency toward complacency. By comparing performance on exactly the same events on the same tasks with and without an automated decision aid, we were able to determine that at least the omission error part of automation bias is due to the unique context created by having an automated decision aid, and is not a phenomena that would occur even if people were not in an automated context. However, this study also revealed that having an automated decision aid did lead to modestly improved performance across all non-error events. Participants in the non- automated condition responded with 83.68% accuracy, whereas participants in the automated condition responded with 88.67% accuracy, across all events. Automated decision aids clearly led to better overall performance when they were accurate. People performed almost exactly at the level of reliability as the automation (which across events was 88% reliable). However, also clear, is that the presence of less than 100% accurate automated decision aids creates a context in which new kinds of errors in decision making can occur. Participants in the non-automated condition responded with 97% accuracy on the six "error" events, whereas participants in the automated condition had only a 65% accuracy rate when confronted with those same six events. In short, the presence of an AMA can lead to vigilance decrements that can lead to errors in decision making.

  7. Passive and active adaptive management: Approaches and an example

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, B.K.

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. Yet there remains considerable confusion about what adaptive management entails, and how to actually make resource decisions adaptively. A key but somewhat ambiguous distinction in adaptive management is between active and passive forms of adaptive decision making. The objective of this paper is to illustrate some approaches to active and passive adaptive management with a simple example involving the drawdown of water impoundments on a wildlife refuge. The approaches are illustrated for the drawdown example, and contrasted in terms of objectives, costs, and potential learning rates. Some key challenges to the actual practice of AM are discussed, and tradeoffs between implementation costs and long-term benefits are highlighted. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  8. Adapting agriculture to climate change.

    PubMed

    Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-12-11

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

  9. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    PubMed Central

    Howden, S. Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N.; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists. PMID:18077402

  10. NASA Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Stamatelatos, Michael; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher; Youngblood, Robert; Rutledge, Peter; Benjamin, Allan; Williams, Rodney; Smith, Curtis; Guarro, Sergio

    2010-01-01

    This handbook provides guidance for conducting risk-informed decision making in the context of NASA risk management (RM), with a focus on the types of direction-setting key decisions that are characteristic of the NASA program and project life cycles, and which produce derived requirements in accordance with existing systems engineering practices that flow down through the NASA organizational hierarchy. The guidance in this handbook is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular decision problems that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when making decisions in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced.

  11. A holistic strategy for adaptive land management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Duniway, Michael C.; Pyke, David A.; Bestelmeyer, Brandon T.; Wills, Skye A.; Brown, Joel R.; Karl, Jason W.; Havstad, Kris M.

    2012-01-01

    Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management (Holling 1973; Walters and Holling 1990). Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adaptation of management until desired results are achieved (Brown and MacLeod 1996; Savory and Butterfield 1999). However, adaptive management is often criticized because very few projects ever complete more than one cycle, resulting in little adaptation and little knowledge gain (Lee 1999; Walters 2007). One significant criticism is that adaptive management is often used as a justification for undertaking actions with uncertain outcomes or as a surrogate for the development of specific, measurable indicators and monitoring programs (Lee 1999; Ruhl 2007).

  12. Categorization = Decision Making + Generalization

    PubMed Central

    Seger, Carol A; Peterson, Erik J.

    2013-01-01

    We rarely, if ever, repeatedly encounter exactly the same situation. This makes generalization crucial for real world decision making. We argue that categorization, the study of generalizable representations, is a type of decision making, and that categorization learning research would benefit from approaches developed to study the neuroscience of decision making. Similarly, methods developed to examine generalization and learning within the field of categorization may enhance decision making research. We first discuss perceptual information processing and integration, with an emphasis on accumulator models. We then examine learning the value of different decision making choices via experience, emphasizing reinforcement learning modeling approaches. Next we discuss how value is combined with other factors in decision making, emphasizing the effects of uncertainty. Finally, we describe how a final decision is selected via thresholding processes implemented by the basal ganglia and related regions. We also consider how memory related functions in the hippocampus may be integrated with decision making mechanisms and contribute to categorization. PMID:23548891

  13. Adaptive sensor fusion using genetic algorithms

    SciTech Connect

    Fitzgerald, D.S.; Adams, D.G.

    1994-08-01

    Past attempts at sensor fusion have used some form of Boolean logic to combine the sensor information. As an alteniative, an adaptive ``fuzzy`` sensor fusion technique is described in this paper. This technique exploits the robust capabilities of fuzzy logic in the decision process as well as the optimization features of the genetic algorithm. This paper presents a brief background on fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms and how they are used in an online implementation of adaptive sensor fusion.

  14. Collective decisions among bacterial viruses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joh, Richard; Mileyko, Yuriy; Voit, Eberhard; Weitz, Joshua

    2010-03-01

    For many temperate bacteriophages, the decision of whether to kill hosts or enter a latent state depends on the multiplicity of infection. In this talk, I present a quantitative model of gene regulatory dynamics to describe how phages make collective decisions within host cells. Unlike most previous studies, the copy number of viral genomes is treated as a variable. In the absence of feedback loops, viral mRNA transcription is expected to be proportional to the viral copy number. However, when there are nonlinear feedback loops in viral gene regulation, our model shows that gene expression patterns are sensitive to changes in viral copy number and there can be a domain of copy number where the system becomes bistable. Hence, the viral copy number is a key control parameter determining host cell fates. This suggests that bacterial viruses can respond adaptively to changes in population dynamics, and can make alternative decisions as a bet-hedging strategy. Finally, I present a stochastic version of viral gene regulation and discuss speed-accuracy trade-offs in the context of cell fate determination by viruses.

  15. Sustainability Based Decision Making

    EPA Science Inventory

    With sustainability as the “true north” for EPA research, a premium is placed on the ability to make decisions under highly complex and uncertain conditions. The primary challenge is reconciling disparate criteria toward credible and defensible decisions. Making decisions on on...

  16. Measurement Decision Theory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rudner, Lawrence M.

    This paper describes and evaluates the use of decision theory as a tool for classifying examinees based on their item response patterns. Decision theory, developed by A. Wald (1947) and now widely used in engineering, agriculture, and computing, provides a simple model for the analysis of categorical data. Measurement decision theory requires only…

  17. Implications of the KONVERGENCE Model for Difficult Cleanup Decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Piet, Steven James; Dakins, Maxine Ellen; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon

    2002-08-04

    Abstract—Some cleanup decisions, such as cleanup of intractable contaminated sites or disposal of spent nuclear fuel, have proven difficult to make. Such decisions face high resistance to agreement from stakeholders possibly because they do not trust the decision makers, view the consequences of being wrong as too high, etc. Our project’s goal is to improve sciencebased cleanup decision-making. This includes diagnosing intractable situations, as a step to identifying a path toward sustainable solutions. Companion papers describe the underlying philosophy of the KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions,1 and the overall framework and process steps.2 Where knowledge, values, and resources converge (the K, V, and R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision – a decision that works over time. For intractable cases, serious consideration of the adaptable class of alternatives is warranted – if properly implemented and packaged.

  18. Building Capacity for Collaborative Decisions, Resilient Ecosystems, and Sustainable Practices: Water, Land, Communtiy and People in Estuarine Watersheds

    EPA Science Inventory

    Population growth, urban expansion, and the warming climate have and will continue to stress our coastal ecosystems. Decisions on how and when to respond with stewardship, adaptation, and mitigation are made by individuals, municipalities, states, and agencies. These decisions ...

  19. Adaptation Challenges and Emerging Efforts in Adaptation Planning in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moser, S. C.

    2008-12-01

    Following Governor Schwarzenegger's Executive Order (S-03-05) of 2005, numerous researchers have been engaged in an ongoing assessment effort to support the state's mitigation and adaptation efforts. Under the sponsorship and coordination of the California Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program, a wide range of climate change impacts and adaptation studies are being conducted and summarized on a biannual basis to assess the latest climate change science, potential impacts on critical sectors, and the state's efforts to manage its climate change risks. In the past, adaptation needs assessments in the state have primarily used a hazards-based (i.e., climate scenario-driven, top-down) approach, while vulnerability-based, bottom-up studies are only now emerging. They are increasingly viewed as complementary and necessary to adequately inform adaptation strategies. This paper briefly highlights this assessment history and then focuses on the planning efforts currently underway to prepare California's first state-wide adaptation plan. As the science and policy/management evolve in tandem, this paper will suggest future policy- or use-inspired research areas, and offer recommendations on how to improve interaction between researchers and practitioners at the science-policy interface, in order to build the state's decision support capacity in the face of a rapidly changing climate.

  20. Make better decisions.

    PubMed

    Davenport, Thomas H

    2009-11-01

    Traditionally, decision making in organizations has rarely been the focus of systematic analysis. That may account for the astounding number of recent poor calls, such as decisions to invest in and securitize subprime mortgage loans or to hedge risk with credit default swaps. Business books are rich with insights about the decision process, but organizations have been slow to adopt their recommendations. It's time to focus on decision making, Davenport says, and he proposes four steps: (1) List and prioritize the decisions that must be made; (2) assess the factors that go into each, such as who plays what role, how often the decision must be made, and what information is available to support it; (3) design the roles, processes, systems, and behaviors your organization needs; and (4) institutionalize decision tools and assistance. The Educational Testing Service and The Stanley Works, among others, have succeeded in improving their decisions. ETS established a centralized deliberative body to make evidence-based decisions about new-product offerings, and Stanley has a Pricing Center of Excellence with internal consultants dedicated to its various business units. Leaders should bring multiple perspectives to their decision making, beware of analytical models that managers don't understand, be clear about their assumptions, practice "model management," and--because only people can revise decision criteria over time--cultivate human backups. PMID:19891389

  1. Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

    2013-01-01

    Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

  2. Decision Maker based on Nanoscale Photo-excitation Transfer

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Song-Ju; Naruse, Makoto; Aono, Masashi; Ohtsu, Motoichi; Hara, Masahiko

    2013-01-01

    Decision-making is one of the most important intellectual abilities of the human brain. Here we propose an efficient decision-making system which uses optical energy transfer between quantum dots (QDs) mediated by optical near-field interactions occurring at scales far below the wavelength of light. The simulation results indicate that our system outperforms the softmax rule, which is known as the best-fitting algorithm for human decision-making behaviour. This suggests that we can produce a nano-system which makes decisions efficiently and adaptively by exploiting the intrinsic spatiotemporal dynamics involving QDs mediated by optical near-field interactions. PMID:23928655

  3. Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Brooke, Cassandra

    2008-12-01

    The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.

  4. Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Brooke, Cassandra

    2008-12-01

    The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change. PMID:18759775

  5. Central Adaptation following Brachial Plexus Injury.

    PubMed

    Simon, Neil G; Franz, Colin K; Gupta, Nalin; Alden, Tord; Kliot, Michel

    2016-01-01

    Brachial plexus trauma (BPT) often affects young patients and may result in lasting functional deficits. Standard care following BPT involves monitoring for clinical and electrophysiological evidence of muscle reinnervation, with surgical treatment decisions based on the presence or absence of spontaneous recovery. Data are emerging to suggest that central and peripheral adaptation may play a role in recovery following BPT. The present review highlights adaptive and maladaptive mechanisms of central and peripheral nervous system changes following BPT that may contribute to functional outcomes. Rehabilitation and other treatment strategies that harness or modulate these intrinsic adaptive mechanisms may improve functional outcomes following BPT. PMID:26409073

  6. Distributed decision-making for space operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hornstein, Rhoda Shaller; Gardner, J. A.; Willoughby, J. K.

    1990-01-01

    A programmatic and technical perspective in the context of future space applications is presented, that includes some of the management challenges that arise as the decision-making process becomes increasingly more decentralized. Three challenges are discussed: (1) the degree to which the planners must communicate with each other and with those who are seeking space operations resources, (2) the collection, management, employment and dissemination of the information needed to make decisions, and (3) the challenges connected with schedule integration. The technical perspective presented leads to recommended adaptations to the normal scheduling algorithms that retain the 'degrees of freedom' in the planning result. It is shown that these adaptations are specific technical responses to the programmatic challenges discussed.

  7. Decision Making in Action

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

  8. Inertia and Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Hügelschäfer, Sabine; Li, Jiahui

    2016-01-01

    Decision inertia is the tendency to repeat previous choices independently of the outcome, which can give rise to perseveration in suboptimal choices. We investigate this tendency in probability-updating tasks. Study 1 shows that, whenever decision inertia conflicts with normatively optimal behavior (Bayesian updating), error rates are larger and decisions are slower. This is consistent with a dual-process view of decision inertia as an automatic process conflicting with a more rational, controlled one. We find evidence of decision inertia in both required and autonomous decisions, but the effect of inertia is more clear in the latter. Study 2 considers more complex decision situations where further conflict arises due to reinforcement processes. We find the same effects of decision inertia when reinforcement is aligned with Bayesian updating, but if the two latter processes conflict, the effects are limited to autonomous choices. Additionally, both studies show that the tendency to rely on decision inertia is positively associated with preference for consistency. PMID:26909061

  9. A Framework for a Decision Support System in a Hierarchical Extended Enterprise Decision Context

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boza, Andrés; Ortiz, Angel; Vicens, Eduardo; Poler, Raul

    Decision Support System (DSS) tools provide useful information to decision makers. In an Extended Enterprise, a new goal, changes in the current objectives or small changes in the extended enterprise configuration produce a necessary adjustment in its decision system. A DSS in this context must be flexible and agile to make suitable an easy and quickly adaptation to this new context. This paper proposes to extend the Hierarchical Production Planning (HPP) structure to an Extended Enterprise decision making context. In this way, a framework for DSS in Extended Enterprise context is defined using components of HPP. Interoperability details have been reviewed to identify the impact in this framework. The proposed framework allows overcoming some interoperability barriers, identifying and organizing components for a DSS in Extended Enterprise context, and working in the definition of an architecture to be used in the design process of a flexible DSS in Extended Enterprise context which can reuse components for futures Extended Enterprise configurations.

  10. Decision Making: from Neuroscience to Psychiatry

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Daeyeol

    2013-01-01

    Adaptive behaviors increase the likelihood of survival and reproduction and improve the quality of life. However, it is often difficult to identify optimal behaviors in real life due to the complexity of the decision maker’s environment and social dynamics. As a result, although many different brain areas and circuits are involved in decision making, evolutionary and learning solutions adopted by individual decision makers sometimes produce suboptimal outcomes. Although these problems are exacerbated in numerous neurological and psychiatric disorders, their underlying neurobiological causes remain incompletely understood. In this review, theoretical frameworks in economics and machine learning and their applications in recent behavioral and neurobiological studies are summarized. Examples of such applications in clinical domains are also discussed for substance abuse, Parkinson’s disease, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, schizophrenia, mood disorders, and autism. Findings from these studies have begun to lay the foundations necessary to improve diagnostics and treatment for various neurological and psychiatric disorders. PMID:23622061

  11. Depression: a decision-theoretic analysis.

    PubMed

    Huys, Quentin J M; Daw, Nathaniel D; Dayan, Peter

    2015-07-01

    The manifold symptoms of depression are common and often transient features of healthy life that are likely to be adaptive in difficult circumstances. It is when these symptoms enter a seemingly self-propelling spiral that the maladaptive features of a disorder emerge. We examine this malignant transformation from the perspective of the computational neuroscience of decision making, investigating how dysfunction of the brain's mechanisms of evaluation might lie at its heart. We start by considering the behavioral implications of pessimistic evaluations of decision variables. We then provide a selective review of work suggesting how such pessimism might arise via specific failures of the mechanisms of evaluation or state estimation. Finally, we analyze ways that miscalibration between the subject and environment may be self-perpetuating. We employ the formal framework of Bayesian decision theory as a foundation for this study, showing how most of the problems arise from one of its broad algorithmic facets, namely model-based reasoning. PMID:25705929

  12. Depression: a decision-theoretic analysis.

    PubMed

    Huys, Quentin J M; Daw, Nathaniel D; Dayan, Peter

    2015-07-01

    The manifold symptoms of depression are common and often transient features of healthy life that are likely to be adaptive in difficult circumstances. It is when these symptoms enter a seemingly self-propelling spiral that the maladaptive features of a disorder emerge. We examine this malignant transformation from the perspective of the computational neuroscience of decision making, investigating how dysfunction of the brain's mechanisms of evaluation might lie at its heart. We start by considering the behavioral implications of pessimistic evaluations of decision variables. We then provide a selective review of work suggesting how such pessimism might arise via specific failures of the mechanisms of evaluation or state estimation. Finally, we analyze ways that miscalibration between the subject and environment may be self-perpetuating. We employ the formal framework of Bayesian decision theory as a foundation for this study, showing how most of the problems arise from one of its broad algorithmic facets, namely model-based reasoning.

  13. A new decision sciences for complex systems

    PubMed Central

    Lempert, Robert J.

    2002-01-01

    Models of complex systems can capture much useful information but can be difficult to apply to real-world decision-making because the type of information they contain is often inconsistent with that required for traditional decision analysis. New approaches, which use inductive reasoning over large ensembles of computational experiments, now make possible systematic comparison of alternative policy options using models of complex systems. This article describes Computer-Assisted Reasoning, an approach to decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty that is ideally suited to applying complex systems to policy analysis. The article demonstrates the approach on the policy problem of global climate change, with a particular focus on the role of technology policies in a robust, adaptive strategy for greenhouse gas abatement. PMID:12011411

  14. Adaptive Rule Based Fetal QRS Complex Detection Using Hilbert Transform

    PubMed Central

    Ulusar, Umit D.; Govindan, R.B.; Wilson, James D.; Lowery, Curtis L.; Preissl, Hubert; Eswaran, Hari

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we introduce an adaptive rule based QRS detection algorithm using the Hilbert transform (adHQRS) for fetal magnetocardiography processing. Hilbert transform is used to combine multiple channel measurements and the adaptive rule based decision process is used to eliminate spurious beats. The algorithm has been tested with a large number of datasets and promising results were obtained. PMID:19964648

  15. 43 CFR 46.145 - Using adaptive management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... implementation decisions. The NEPA analysis conducted in the context of an adaptive management approach should... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Using adaptive management. 46.145 Section... ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT OF 1969 Protection and Enhancement of Environmental Quality § 46.145 Using...

  16. Adaptive Management for Urban Watersheds: The Slavic Village Pilot Project

    EPA Science Inventory

    Adaptive management is an environmental management strategy that uses an iterative process of decision-making to reduce the uncertainty in environmental management via system monitoring. A central tenet of adaptive management is that management involves a learning process that ca...

  17. Decisions about Drug Use. Adolescent Decisions Curriculum.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brion-Meisels, Steven; And Others

    This teacher's manual for drug abuse education is one volume of a six volume curriculum for the secondary level, designed to provide a systematic, group-oriented approach to decision-making in areas crucial to adolescent development: drug (substance) use and abuse, sexuality and social relationships, juvenile law, work and people and government.…

  18. Development and Standardization of the Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale: Application of Item Response Theory to the Assessment of Adaptive Behavior

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tassé, Marc J.; Schalock, Robert L.; Thissen, David; Balboni, Giulia; Bersani, Henry, Jr.; Borthwick-Duffy, Sharon A.; Spreat, Scott; Widaman, Keith F.; Zhang, Dalun; Navas, Patricia

    2016-01-01

    The Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale (DABS) was developed using item response theory (IRT) methods and was constructed to provide the most precise and valid adaptive behavior information at or near the cutoff point of making a decision regarding a diagnosis of intellectual disability. The DABS initial item pool consisted of 260 items. Using IRT…

  19. Designing for Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jonassen, David H.

    2012-01-01

    Decision making is the most common kind of problem solving. It is also an important component skill in other more ill-structured and complex kinds of problem solving, including policy problems and design problems. There are different kinds of decisions, including choices, acceptances, evaluations, and constructions. After describing the centrality…

  20. Participative Decision-Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindelow, John; And Others

    Chapter 6 in a volume on school leadership, this chapter makes a case for the use of participative decision-making (PDM) at the school-site level, outlines guidelines for its implementation, and describes the experiences of some schools with PDM systems. It begins by citing research indicating the advantages of PDM, including better decisions,…

  1. Culinary Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curtis, Rob

    1987-01-01

    Advises directors of ways to include day care workers in the decision-making process. Enumerates benefits of using staff to help focus and direct changes in the day care center and discusses possible pitfalls in implementation of a collective decision-making approach to management. (NH)

  2. Consumer Decisions. Student Manual.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Florida State Dept. of Education, Tallahassee. Div. of Vocational Education.

    This student manual covers five areas relating to consumer decisions. Titles of the five sections are Consumer Law, Consumer Decision Making, Buying a Car, Convenience Foods, and Books for Preschool Children. Each section may contain some or all of these materials: list of objectives, informative sections, questions on the information and answers,…

  3. Repeated Causal Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Bjorn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in…

  4. Quantitative Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baldwin, Grover H.

    The use of quantitative decision making tools provides the decision maker with a range of alternatives among which to decide, permits acceptance and use of the optimal solution, and decreases risk. Training line administrators in the use of these tools can help school business officials obtain reliable information upon which to base district…

  5. ADAPTATION AND ADAPTABILITY, THE BELLEFAIRE FOLLOWUP STUDY.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    ALLERHAND, MELVIN E.; AND OTHERS

    A RESEARCH TEAM STUDIED INFLUENCES, ADAPTATION, AND ADAPTABILITY IN 50 POORLY ADAPTING BOYS AT BELLEFAIRE, A REGIONAL CHILD CARE CENTER FOR EMOTIONALLY DISTURBED CHILDREN. THE TEAM ATTEMPTED TO GAUGE THE SUCCESS OF THE RESIDENTIAL TREATMENT CENTER IN TERMS OF THE PSYCHOLOGICAL PATTERNS AND ROLE PERFORMANCES OF THE BOYS DURING INDIVIDUAL CASEWORK…

  6. Modulators of decision making.

    PubMed

    Doya, Kenji

    2008-04-01

    Human and animal decisions are modulated by a variety of environmental and intrinsic contexts. Here I consider computational factors that can affect decision making and review anatomical structures and neurochemical systems that are related to contextual modulation of decision making. Expectation of a high reward can motivate a subject to go for an action despite a large cost, a decision that is influenced by dopamine in the anterior cingulate cortex. Uncertainty of action outcomes can promote risk taking and exploratory choices, in which norepinephrine and the orbitofrontal cortex appear to be involved. Predictable environments should facilitate consideration of longer-delayed rewards, which depends on serotonin in the dorsal striatum and dorsal prefrontal cortex. This article aims to sort out factors that affect the process of decision making from the viewpoint of reinforcement learning theory and to bridge between such computational needs and their neurophysiological substrates.

  7. Adaptive Image Denoising by Mixture Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Enming; Chan, Stanley H.; Nguyen, Truong Q.

    2016-10-01

    We propose an adaptive learning procedure to learn patch-based image priors for image denoising. The new algorithm, called the Expectation-Maximization (EM) adaptation, takes a generic prior learned from a generic external database and adapts it to the noisy image to generate a specific prior. Different from existing methods that combine internal and external statistics in ad-hoc ways, the proposed algorithm is rigorously derived from a Bayesian hyper-prior perspective. There are two contributions of this paper: First, we provide full derivation of the EM adaptation algorithm and demonstrate methods to improve the computational complexity. Second, in the absence of the latent clean image, we show how EM adaptation can be modified based on pre-filtering. Experimental results show that the proposed adaptation algorithm yields consistently better denoising results than the one without adaptation and is superior to several state-of-the-art algorithms.

  8. Decision Neuroscience: Neuroeconomics

    PubMed Central

    Smith, David V.; Huettel, Scott A.

    2012-01-01

    Few aspects of human cognition are more personal than the choices we make. Our decisions – from the mundane to the impossibly complex – continually shape the courses of our lives. In recent years, researchers have applied the tools of neuroscience to understand the mechanisms that underlie decision making, as part of the new discipline of decision neuroscience. A primary goal of this emerging field has been to identify the processes that underlie specific decision variables, including the value of rewards, the uncertainty associated with particular outcomes, and the consequences of social interactions. Recent work suggests potential neural substrates that integrate these variables, potentially reflecting a common neural currency for value, to facilitate value comparisons. Despite the successes of decision neuroscience research for elucidating brain mechanisms, significant challenges remain. These include building new conceptual frameworks for decision making, integrating research findings across disparate techniques and species, and extending results from neuroscience to shape economic theory. To overcome these challenges, future research will likely focus on interpersonal variability in decision making, with the eventual goal of creating biologically plausible models for individual choice. PMID:22754602

  9. Rapid Decisions From Experience

    PubMed Central

    Zeigenfuse, Matthew D.; Pleskac, Timothy J.; Liu, Taosheng

    2014-01-01

    In many everyday decisions, people quickly integrate noisy samples of information to form a preference among alternatives that offer uncertain rewards. Here, we investigated this decision process using the Flash Gambling Task (FGT), in which participants made a series of choices between a certain payoff and an uncertain alternative that produced a normal distribution of payoffs. For each choice, participants experienced the distribution of payoffs via rapid samples updated every 50 ms. We show that people can make these rapid decisions from experience and that the decision process is consistent with a sequential sampling process. Results also reveal a dissociation between these preferential decisions and equivalent perceptual decisions where participants had to determine which alternatives contained more dots on average. To account for this dissociation, we developed a sequential sampling rank-dependent utility model, which showed that participants in the FGT attended more to larger potential payoffs than participants in the perceptual task despite being given equivalent information. We discuss the implications of these findings in terms of computational models of preferential choice and a more complete understanding of experience-based decision making. PMID:24549141

  10. Deciding about fast and slow decisions.

    PubMed

    Croskerry, Pat; Petrie, David A; Reilly, James B; Tait, Gordon

    2014-02-01

    Two reports in this issue address the important topic of clinical decision making. Dual process theory has emerged as the dominant model for understanding the complex processes that underlie human decision making. This theory distinguishes between the reflexive, autonomous processes that characterize intuitive decision making and the deliberate reasoning of an analytical approach. In this commentary, the authors address the polarization of viewpoints that has developed around the relative merits of the two systems. Although intuitive processes are typically fast and analytical processes slow, speed alone does not distinguish them. In any event, the majority of decisions in clinical medicine are not dependent on very short response times. What does appear relevant to diagnostic ease and accuracy is the degree to which the symptoms of the disease being diagnosed are characteristic ones. There are also concerns around some methodological issues related to research design in this area of enquiry. Reductionist approaches that attempt to isolate dependent variables may create such artificial experimental conditions that both external and ecological validity are sacrificed. Clinical decision making is a complex process with many independent (and interdependent) variables that need to be separated out in a discrete fashion and then reflected on in real time to preserve the fidelity of clinical practice. With these caveats in mind, the authors believe that research in this area should promote a better understanding of clinical practice and teaching by focusing less on the deficiencies of intuitive and analytical systems and more on their adaptive strengths. PMID:24362398

  11. Collective decision making in bacterial viruses.

    PubMed

    Weitz, Joshua S; Mileyko, Yuriy; Joh, Richard I; Voit, Eberhard O

    2008-09-15

    For many bacterial viruses, the choice of whether to kill host cells or enter a latent state depends on the multiplicity of coinfection. Here, we present a mathematical theory of how bacterial viruses can make collective decisions concerning the fate of infected cells. We base our theory on mechanistic models of gene regulatory dynamics. Unlike most previous work, we treat the copy number of viral genes as variable. Increasing the viral copy number increases the rate of transcription of viral mRNAs. When viral regulation of cell fate includes nonlinear feedback loops, very small changes in transcriptional rates can lead to dramatic changes in steady-state gene expression. Hence, we prove that deterministic decisions can be reached, e.g., lysis or latency, depending on the cellular multiplicity of infection within a broad class of gene regulatory models of viral decision-making. Comparisons of a parameterized version of the model with molecular studies of the decision structure in the temperate bacteriophage lambda are consistent with our conclusions. Because the model is general, it suggests that bacterial viruses can respond adaptively to changes in population dynamics, and that features of collective decision-making in viruses are evolvable life history traits.

  12. Fast Image Texture Classification Using Decision Trees

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, David R.

    2011-01-01

    Texture analysis would permit improved autonomous, onboard science data interpretation for adaptive navigation, sampling, and downlink decisions. These analyses would assist with terrain analysis and instrument placement in both macroscopic and microscopic image data products. Unfortunately, most state-of-the-art texture analysis demands computationally expensive convolutions of filters involving many floating-point operations. This makes them infeasible for radiation- hardened computers and spaceflight hardware. A new method approximates traditional texture classification of each image pixel with a fast decision-tree classifier. The classifier uses image features derived from simple filtering operations involving integer arithmetic. The texture analysis method is therefore amenable to implementation on FPGA (field-programmable gate array) hardware. Image features based on the "integral image" transform produce descriptive and efficient texture descriptors. Training the decision tree on a set of training data yields a classification scheme that produces reasonable approximations of optimal "texton" analysis at a fraction of the computational cost. A decision-tree learning algorithm employing the traditional k-means criterion of inter-cluster variance is used to learn tree structure from training data. The result is an efficient and accurate summary of surface morphology in images. This work is an evolutionary advance that unites several previous algorithms (k-means clustering, integral images, decision trees) and applies them to a new problem domain (morphology analysis for autonomous science during remote exploration). Advantages include order-of-magnitude improvements in runtime, feasibility for FPGA hardware, and significant improvements in texture classification accuracy.

  13. Deciding about fast and slow decisions.

    PubMed

    Croskerry, Pat; Petrie, David A; Reilly, James B; Tait, Gordon

    2014-02-01

    Two reports in this issue address the important topic of clinical decision making. Dual process theory has emerged as the dominant model for understanding the complex processes that underlie human decision making. This theory distinguishes between the reflexive, autonomous processes that characterize intuitive decision making and the deliberate reasoning of an analytical approach. In this commentary, the authors address the polarization of viewpoints that has developed around the relative merits of the two systems. Although intuitive processes are typically fast and analytical processes slow, speed alone does not distinguish them. In any event, the majority of decisions in clinical medicine are not dependent on very short response times. What does appear relevant to diagnostic ease and accuracy is the degree to which the symptoms of the disease being diagnosed are characteristic ones. There are also concerns around some methodological issues related to research design in this area of enquiry. Reductionist approaches that attempt to isolate dependent variables may create such artificial experimental conditions that both external and ecological validity are sacrificed. Clinical decision making is a complex process with many independent (and interdependent) variables that need to be separated out in a discrete fashion and then reflected on in real time to preserve the fidelity of clinical practice. With these caveats in mind, the authors believe that research in this area should promote a better understanding of clinical practice and teaching by focusing less on the deficiencies of intuitive and analytical systems and more on their adaptive strengths.

  14. Strategic Decision Making and Group Decision Support Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGrath, Michael Robert

    1986-01-01

    Institutional strategic decisions require the participation of every individual with a significant stake in the solution, and group decision support systems are being developed to respond to the political and consensual problems of collective decision-making. (MSE)

  15. Emotion and decision making.

    PubMed

    Lerner, Jennifer S; Li, Ye; Valdesolo, Piercarlo; Kassam, Karim S

    2015-01-01

    A revolution in the science of emotion has emerged in recent decades, with the potential to create a paradigm shift in decision theories. The research reveals that emotions constitute potent, pervasive, predictable, sometimes harmful and sometimes beneficial drivers of decision making. Across different domains, important regularities appear in the mechanisms through which emotions influence judgments and choices. We organize and analyze what has been learned from the past 35 years of work on emotion and decision making. In so doing, we propose the emotion-imbued choice model, which accounts for inputs from traditional rational choice theory and from newer emotion research, synthesizing scientific models.

  16. Air Sparging Decision Tool

    1996-06-10

    The Air Sparging Decision Tool is a computer decision aid to help environmental managers and field practitioners in evaluating the applicability of air sparging to a wide range of sites and for refining the operation of air sparging systems. The program provides tools for the practitioner to develop the conceptual design for an air sparging system suitable for the identified site. The Tool provides a model of the decision making process, not a detailed designmore » of air sparging systems. The Tool will quickly and cost effectively assist the practitioner in screening for applicability of the technology at a proposed site.« less

  17. Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world.

    PubMed

    Stafford Smith, Mark; Horrocks, Lisa; Harvey, Alex; Hamilton, Clive

    2011-01-13

    With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4°C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4°C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2°C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper, we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to break down some barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making. The approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly. PMID:21115520

  18. Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.

    2014-11-01

    Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

  19. Informing Decisions with Earth System Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2012-12-01

    The emerging generation of earth system models offers the potential for significant improvements in region planning in the face of interlinked environmental and socio-economic changes. But these models also raise important questions about how to best use the information they contain to support decision-making, particularly in the face of the considerable uncertainty in many model projections. The decision support literature provides general guidance on this challenge, with its emphasize on the importance of grounding information provision in user needs, the importance of focusing on decision-making processes, and need to design for learning. This talk will build on this guidance to suggest an approach for using Earth System Models to inform regional planning decisions. In brief, this robust decision making approach suggests beginning with one or more specific plans (for instance, a specific regional plan and its supporting policies and investments), running the model many times to explore the performance of the plan in many potential future conditions, uses cluster analysis on the resulting database of model results to identify those conditions where a plan may fail to meet its goals, and then use this information to help decision-makers to consider and chose among potential modifications to their plans. This approach provides an effective means to characterize uncertainty and link to policy-makers' decision processes. In particular, it can support the development of adaptive policies designed to evolve over time in response to new information. This talk will demonstrate these approaches using examples from regional water management and discuss how one can use them to evaluate the value of different types of model-supplied information.

  20. People and Decisions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fortney, Nancy D.; Glover, Kathy H.

    1979-01-01

    Suggests that social studies classroom teachers should use the process of rational decision making to teach students how to think at higher intellectual levels, become more creative, clarify values, and increase moral development. Learning activities are described. (DB)

  1. Making Group Decisions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drennen, Nancy Hungerford

    1982-01-01

    For greater effectiveness, attention should be paid to how group decisions are made. The process of consensus-seeking encourages appraisal of more information and provides a broader range of potential alternatives. (SK)

  2. Shared decision making

    MedlinePlus

    ... Shared decision making to improve care and reduce costs. N Engl J Med . 2013 Jan 3;368(1):6-8. ... UW Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA. Also reviewed by David ...

  3. Colorado Special Education Administrative Decisions: Impartial Hearing Officer Decisions; State Level Review Decisions; Federal Complaint Findings.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Colorado State Dept. of Education, Denver.

    This volume of Colorado special education administrative decisions contains all Impartial Hearing Officer Decisions, State Level Review Decisions, and Complaint Findings issued since 1988. The full text of each decision or finding is preceded by a case summary which includes a listing of key topics, a statement of the issues, the decision, and…

  4. Adaptive management for a turbulent future.

    PubMed

    Allen, Craig R; Fontaine, Joseph J; Pope, Kevin L; Garmestani, Ahjond S

    2011-05-01

    The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate

  5. Adaptive management for a turbulent future

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, C.R.; Fontaine, J.J.; Pope, K.L.; Garmestani, A.S.

    2011-01-01

    The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate

  6. Adaptive Management for a Turbulent Future

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, Craig R.; Fontaine, Joseph J.; Pope, Kevin L.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

    2011-01-01

    The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate

  7. Group decision making with the analytic hierarchy process in benefit-risk assessment: a tutorial.

    PubMed

    Hummel, J Marjan; Bridges, John F P; IJzerman, Maarten J

    2014-01-01

    The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria. This tutorial illustrates the procedural steps of the AHP in supporting group decision making about new healthcare technology, including (1) identifying the decision goal, decision criteria, and alternative healthcare technologies to compare, (2) structuring the decision criteria, (3) judging the value of the alternative technologies on each decision criterion, (4) judging the importance of the decision criteria, (5) calculating group judgments, (6) analyzing the inconsistency in judgments, (7) calculating the overall value of the technologies, and (8) conducting sensitivity analyses. The AHP is illustrated via a hypothetical example, adapted from an empirical AHP analysis on the benefits and risks of tissue regeneration to repair small cartilage lesions in the knee.

  8. How to Represent Adaptation in e-Learning with IMS Learning Design

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burgos, Daniel; Tattersall, Colin; Koper, Rob

    2007-01-01

    Adaptation in e-learning has been an important research topic for the last few decades in computer-based education. In adaptivity the behaviour of the user triggers some actions in the system that guides the learning process. In adaptability, the user makes changes and takes decisions. Progressing from computer-based training and adaptive…

  9. Q-Learning: A Data Analysis Method for Constructing Adaptive Interventions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nahum-Shani, Inbal; Qian, Min; Almirall, Daniel; Pelham, William E.; Gnagy, Beth; Fabiano, Gregory A.; Waxmonsky, James G.; Yu, Jihnhee; Murphy, Susan A.

    2012-01-01

    Increasing interest in individualizing and adapting intervention services over time has led to the development of adaptive interventions. Adaptive interventions operationalize the individualization of a sequence of intervention options over time via the use of decision rules that input participant information and output intervention…

  10. Improving decision making in crisis.

    PubMed

    Higgins, Guy; Freedman, Jennifer

    2013-01-01

    The most critical activity during emergencies or crises is making decisions about what to do next. This paper provides insights into the challenges that people face in making decisions at any time, but particularly during emergencies and crises. It also introduces the reader to the concept of different sense-making/decision-making domains, the human behaviours that can adversely affect decision making - decision derailers - and ways in which emergency responders can leverage this knowledge to make better decisions. While the literature on decision making is extensive, this paper is focused on those aspects that apply particularly to decision making in emergencies or times of crisis.

  11. Effect of regulating anger and sadness on decision-making.

    PubMed

    Szasz, Paul Lucian; Hofmann, Stefan G; Heilman, Renata M; Curtiss, Joshua

    2016-11-01

    The aim of the current study was to investigate the effects of reappraisal, acceptance, and rumination for regulating anger and sadness on decision-making. Participants (N = 165) were asked to recall two autobiographical events in which they felt intense anger and sadness, respectively. Participants were then instructed to reappraise, accept, ruminate, or not use any strategies to regulate their feelings of anger and sadness. Following this manipulation, risk aversion, and decision-making strategies were measured using a computer-based measure of risk-taking and a simulated real-life decision-making task. Participants who were instructed to reappraise their emotions showed the least anger and sadness, the most adaptive decision-making strategies, but the least risk aversion as compared to the participants in the other conditions. These findings suggest that emotion regulation strategies of negative affective states have an immediate effect on decision-making and risk-taking behaviors. PMID:27438753

  12. Effect of regulating anger and sadness on decision-making.

    PubMed

    Szasz, Paul Lucian; Hofmann, Stefan G; Heilman, Renata M; Curtiss, Joshua

    2016-11-01

    The aim of the current study was to investigate the effects of reappraisal, acceptance, and rumination for regulating anger and sadness on decision-making. Participants (N = 165) were asked to recall two autobiographical events in which they felt intense anger and sadness, respectively. Participants were then instructed to reappraise, accept, ruminate, or not use any strategies to regulate their feelings of anger and sadness. Following this manipulation, risk aversion, and decision-making strategies were measured using a computer-based measure of risk-taking and a simulated real-life decision-making task. Participants who were instructed to reappraise their emotions showed the least anger and sadness, the most adaptive decision-making strategies, but the least risk aversion as compared to the participants in the other conditions. These findings suggest that emotion regulation strategies of negative affective states have an immediate effect on decision-making and risk-taking behaviors.

  13. Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marcot, Bruce G.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Runge, Michael C.; Thompson, Frank R.; McNulty, Steven; Cleaves, David; Tomosy, Monica; Fisher, Larry A.; Andrew, Bliss

    2012-01-01

    Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM). SDM entails four stages: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring the preferred alternative with adaptive management feedbacks. We list a wide array of models, techniques, and tools available for each stage, and provide three case studies of their selected use in National Forest land management and project plans. Successful use of SDM involves participation by decision-makers, analysts, scientists, and stakeholders. We suggest specific areas for training and instituting SDM to foster transparency, rigor, clarity, and inclusiveness in formal decision processes regarding management of national forests.

  14. Working memory capacity as controlled attention in tactical decision making.

    PubMed

    Furley, Philip A; Memmert, Daniel

    2012-06-01

    The controlled attention theory of working memory capacity (WMC, Engle 2002) suggests that WMC represents a domain free limitation in the ability to control attention and is predictive of an individual's capability of staying focused, avoiding distraction and impulsive errors. In the present paper we test the predictive power of WMC in computer-based sport decision-making tasks. Experiment 1 demonstrated that high-WMC athletes were better able at focusing their attention on tactical decision making while blocking out irrelevant auditory distraction. Experiment 2 showed that high-WMC athletes were more successful at adapting their tactical decision making according to the situation instead of relying on prepotent inappropriate decisions. The present results provide additional but also unique support for the controlled attention theory of WMC by demonstrating that WMC is predictive of controlling attention in complex settings among different modalities and highlight the importance of working memory in tactical decision making.

  15. Translating climate data for business decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinberg, N.

    2015-12-01

    Businesses are bound to play an integral role in global and local climate change adaptation efforts, and integrating climate science into business decision-making can help protect companies' bottom-line and the communities which they depend upon. Yet many companies do not have good means to measure and manage climate risks. There are inherent limiting factors to incorporating climate data into existing operations and sourcing strategies. Spatial and temporal incongruities between climate and business models can make integration cumbersome. Even when such incongruities are resolved, raw climate data must undergo multiple transformations until the data is deemed actionable or otherwise translatable in dollar terms. However, the predictability of future impacts is advancing along with the use of second-order variables such as Cooling Degree Days and Water-Limited Crop productivity, helping business managers make better decisions about future energy and water demand requirements under the prospect of rising temperatures and more variable rainfall. This presentation will discuss the methods and opportunities for transforming raw climate data into business metrics. Results for the 2015 Corporate Adaptation Survey, led by Four Twenty Seven and in partnership with Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index, will also be presented to illustrate existing gaps between climate science and its application in the business context.

  16. Climate adaptation strategy for natural resources released

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2013-04-01

    The National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy, released on 26 March by the Obama administration, calls for a series of measures to help public and private decision makers better address the effects of climate change on living natural resources. The measures include conserving habitat to support healthy fish, wildlife, and plant populations and ecosystem functions; managing species and habitats to protect ecosystem functions and provide sustainable commercial, subsistence, recreational, and cultural use; increasing knowledge and information about effects on and responses of fish, wildlife, and plants; and reducing nonclimate stressors to help fish, wildlife, plants, and ecosystems adapt.

  17. A mechanism for value-sensitive decision-making.

    PubMed

    Pais, Darren; Hogan, Patrick M; Schlegel, Thomas; Franks, Nigel R; Leonard, Naomi E; Marshall, James A R

    2013-01-01

    We present a dynamical systems analysis of a decision-making mechanism inspired by collective choice in house-hunting honeybee swarms, revealing the crucial role of cross-inhibitory 'stop-signalling' in improving the decision-making capabilities. We show that strength of cross-inhibition is a decision-parameter influencing how decisions depend both on the difference in value and on the mean value of the alternatives; this is in contrast to many previous mechanistic models of decision-making, which are typically sensitive to decision accuracy rather than the value of the option chosen. The strength of cross-inhibition determines when deadlock over similarly valued alternatives is maintained or broken, as a function of the mean value; thus, changes in cross-inhibition strength allow adaptive time-dependent decision-making strategies. Cross-inhibition also tunes the minimum difference between alternatives required for reliable discrimination, in a manner similar to Weber's law of just-noticeable difference. Finally, cross-inhibition tunes the speed-accuracy trade-off realised when differences in the values of the alternatives are sufficiently large to matter. We propose that the model, and the significant role of the values of the alternatives, may describe other decision-making systems, including intracellular regulatory circuits, and simple neural circuits, and may provide guidance in the design of decision-making algorithms for artificial systems, particularly those functioning without centralised control.

  18. Decisions and desire.

    PubMed

    Morse, Gardiner

    2006-01-01

    When we make decisions, we're not always in charge. One moment we hotheadedly let our emotions get the better of us; the next, we're paralyzed by uncertainty. Then we'll pull a brilliant decision out of thin air--and wonder how we did it. Though we may have no idea how decision making happens, neuroscientists peering deep into our brains are beginning to get the picture. What they're finding may not be what you want to hear, but it's worth listening. We have dog brains, basically, with human cortexes stuck on top. By watching the brain in action as it deliberates and decides, neuroscientists are finding that not a second goes by that our animal brains aren't conferring with our modern cortexes to influence their choices. Scientists have discovered, for example, that the "reward" circuits in the brain that activate in response to cocaine, chocolate, sex, and music also find pleasure in the mere anticipation of making money--or getting revenge. And the "aversion" circuits that react to the threat of physical pain also respond with disgust when we feel cheated by a partner. In this article, HBR senior editor Gardiner Morse describes the experiments that illuminate the aggressive participation of our emotion-driven animal brains in decision making. This research also shows that our emotional brains needn't always operate beneath our radar. While our dog brains sometimes hijack our higher cognitive functions to drive bad, or at least illogical, decisions, they play an important part in rational decision making as well. The more we understand about how we make decisions, the better we can manage them.

  19. Decisions and desire.

    PubMed

    Morse, Gardiner

    2006-01-01

    When we make decisions, we're not always in charge. One moment we hotheadedly let our emotions get the better of us; the next, we're paralyzed by uncertainty. Then we'll pull a brilliant decision out of thin air--and wonder how we did it. Though we may have no idea how decision making happens, neuroscientists peering deep into our brains are beginning to get the picture. What they're finding may not be what you want to hear, but it's worth listening. We have dog brains, basically, with human cortexes stuck on top. By watching the brain in action as it deliberates and decides, neuroscientists are finding that not a second goes by that our animal brains aren't conferring with our modern cortexes to influence their choices. Scientists have discovered, for example, that the "reward" circuits in the brain that activate in response to cocaine, chocolate, sex, and music also find pleasure in the mere anticipation of making money--or getting revenge. And the "aversion" circuits that react to the threat of physical pain also respond with disgust when we feel cheated by a partner. In this article, HBR senior editor Gardiner Morse describes the experiments that illuminate the aggressive participation of our emotion-driven animal brains in decision making. This research also shows that our emotional brains needn't always operate beneath our radar. While our dog brains sometimes hijack our higher cognitive functions to drive bad, or at least illogical, decisions, they play an important part in rational decision making as well. The more we understand about how we make decisions, the better we can manage them. PMID:16447368

  20. Adaptive management of urban watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garmestani, A.; Shuster, W.; Green, O. O.

    2013-12-01

    Consent decree settlements for violations of the Clean Water Act (1972) increasingly include provisions for redress of combined sewer overflow activity through hybrid approaches that incorporate the best of both gray (e.g., storage tunnels) and green infrastructure (e.g., rain gardens). Adaptive management is an environmental management strategy that uses an iterative process of decision-making to improve environmental management via system monitoring. A central tenet of adaptive management is that management involves a learning process that can help regulated communities achieve environmental quality objectives. We are using an adaptive management approach to guide a green infrastructure retrofit of a neighborhood in the Slavic Village Development Corporation area (Cleveland, Ohio). We are in the process of gathering hydrologic and ecosystem services data and will use this data as a basis for collaboration with area citizens on a plan to use green infrastructure to contain stormflows. Monitoring data provides researchers with feedback on the impact of green infrastructure implementation and suggest where improvements can be made.

  1. Certification Considerations for Adaptive Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bhattacharyya, Siddhartha; Cofer, Darren; Musliner, David J.; Mueller, Joseph; Engstrom, Eric

    2015-01-01

    Advanced capabilities planned for the next generation of aircraft, including those that will operate within the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), will necessarily include complex new algorithms and non-traditional software elements. These aircraft will likely incorporate adaptive control algorithms that will provide enhanced safety, autonomy, and robustness during adverse conditions. Unmanned aircraft will operate alongside manned aircraft in the National Airspace (NAS), with intelligent software performing the high-level decision-making functions normally performed by human pilots. Even human-piloted aircraft will necessarily include more autonomy. However, there are serious barriers to the deployment of new capabilities, especially for those based upon software including adaptive control (AC) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms. Current civil aviation certification processes are based on the idea that the correct behavior of a system must be completely specified and verified prior to operation. This report by Rockwell Collins and SIFT documents our comprehensive study of the state of the art in intelligent and adaptive algorithms for the civil aviation domain, categorizing the approaches used and identifying gaps and challenges associated with certification of each approach.

  2. Decision Technology Systems: A Vehicle to Consolidate Decision Making Support.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Forgionne, Guisseppi A.

    1991-01-01

    Discussion of management decision making and the support needed to manage successfully highlights a Decision Technology System (DTS) that integrates other information systems. Topics discussed include computer information systems (CISs); knowledge gateways; the decision-making process; decision support systems (DSS); expert systems; and facility…

  3. Lazy decision trees

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman, J.H.; Yun, Yeogirl; Kohavi, R.

    1996-12-31

    Lazy learning algorithms, exemplified by nearest-neighbor algorithms, do not induce a concise hypothesis from a given training set; the inductive process is delayed until a test instance is given. Algorithms for constructing decision trees, such as C4.5, ID3, and CART create a single {open_quotes}best{close_quotes} decision tree during the training phase, and this tree is then used to classify test instances. The tests at the nodes of the constructed tree are good on average, but there may be better tests for classifying a specific instance. We propose a lazy decision tree algorithm-LazyDT-that conceptually constructs the {open_quotes}best{close_quote} decision tree for each test instance. In practice, only a path needs to be constructed, and a caching scheme makes the algorithm fast. The algorithm is robust with respect to missing values without resorting to the complicated methods usually seen in induction of decision trees. Experiments on real and artificial problems are presented.

  4. Expressing Adaptation Strategies Using Adaptation Patterns

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zemirline, N.; Bourda, Y.; Reynaud, C.

    2012-01-01

    Today, there is a real challenge to enable personalized access to information. Several systems have been proposed to address this challenge including Adaptive Hypermedia Systems (AHSs). However, the specification of adaptation strategies remains a difficult task for creators of such systems. In this paper, we consider the problem of the definition…

  5. Adaptation to Climate change Impacts on the Mediterranean islands' Agriculture (ADAPT2CLIMA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Lemesios, Giannis; Loizidou, Maria; Papadaskalopoulou, Christina; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Papadopoulou, Maria; Moriondo, Marco; Markou, Marinos; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Pasotti, Luigi

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is one of the economic sectors that will likely be hit hardest by climate change, since it directly depends on climatic factors such as temperature, sunlight, and precipitation. The EU LIFE ADAPT2CLIMA (http://adapt2clima.eu/en/) project aims to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture by deploying and demonstrating an innovative decision support tool. The ADAPT2CLIMA tool will make it possible to simulate the impacts of climate change on crop production and the effectiveness of selected adaptation options in decreasing vulnerability to climate change in three Mediterranean islands, namely Crete (Greece), Sicily (Italy), and Cyprus. The islands were selected for two reasons: firstly, they figure among the most important cultivation areas at national level. Secondly, they exhibit similarities in terms of location (climate), size, climate change threats faced (coastal agriculture, own water resources), agricultural practices, and policy relevance. In particular, the tool will provide: i) climate change projections; ii) hydrological conditions related to agriculture: iii) a vulnerability assessment of selected crops; iv) an evaluation of the adaptation options identified. The project is expected to contribute significantly to increasing climate resilience of agriculture areas in Sicily, Cyprus and Crete as well as at EU and international level by: • Developing, implementing and demonstrating an innovative and interactive decision support tool (ADAPT2CLIMA tool) for adaptation planning in agriculture that estimates future climate change impacts on local water resources, as well as the climate change vulnerability of the agricultural crop production in the project areas; • Evaluating the technical and economic viability of the implementation of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool; • Developing climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture (including a monitoring plan) for the three project areas and presenting them to the competent

  6. Decision Impact Assessment Model

    1991-08-01

    DIAMOND represents the decision-making environment that utility planners and executives face. Users interact with the model after every year or two of simulation, which provides an opportunity to modify past decisions as well as to make new decisions. For example, construction of a power plant can be started one year, and if circumstances change, the plant can be accelerated, mothballed, cancelled, or continued as originally planned. Similarly, the marketing and financial incentives for demand-side managementmore » programs can be changed from year to year. This frequent user interaction with the model, an operational game, should build greater understanding and insights among utility planners about the risks associated with different types of resources.« less

  7. Robust Decision Making

    SciTech Connect

    Christopher A. Dieckmann, PE, CSEP-Acq

    2010-07-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is funded through the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy and other customers who have direct contracts with the Laboratory. The people, equipment, facilities and other infrastructure at the laboratory require continual investment to maintain and improve the laboratory’s capabilities. With ever tightening federal and customer budgets, the ability to direct investments into the people, equipment, facilities and other infrastructure which are most closely aligned with the laboratory’s mission and customers’ goals grows increasingly more important. The ability to justify those investment decisions based on objective criteria that can withstand political, managerial and technical criticism also becomes increasingly more important. The Systems Engineering tools of decision analysis, risk management and roadmapping, when properly applied to such problems, can provide defensible decisions.

  8. Societal Boundaries on Cybernetic Action or Decision-Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schulman, Rosalind; Steg, Doreen E.

    This paper discusses the development, application, and implications of a statistical technique--a concordance index--for measuring the restrictions and constrictions (legal and societal) which inhibit individual decision making and adapting behavior. It was found that as sophistication sets in there will be less and less tolerance of these…

  9. Memory Dynamics and Decision Making in Younger and Older Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lechuga, M. Teresa; Gomez-Ariza, Carlos J.; Iglesias-Parro, Sergio; Pelegrina, Santiago

    2012-01-01

    The main aim of this research was to study whether memory dynamics influence older people's choices to the same extent as younger's ones. To do so, we adapted the retrieval-practice paradigm to produce variations in memory accessibility of information on which decisions were made later. Based on previous results, we expected to observe…

  10. Mental Workload as a Key Factor in Clinical Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Byrne, Aidan

    2013-01-01

    The decision making process is central to the practice of a clinician and has traditionally been described in terms of the hypothetico-deductive model. More recently, models adapted from cognitive psychology, such as the dual process and script theories have proved useful in explaining patterns of practice not consistent with purely cognitive…

  11. Nicotinic alteration of decision-making.

    PubMed

    Naudé, Jérémie; Dongelmans, Malou; Faure, Philippe

    2015-09-01

    Addiction to nicotine is characterized by impulses, urges and lack of self-control towards cigarettes. A key element in the process of addiction is the development of habits oriented towards nicotine consumption that surpass flexible systems as a consequence of a gradual adaptation to chronic drug exposure. However, the long-term effects of nicotine on brain circuits also induce wide changes in decision-making processes, affecting behaviors unrelated to cigarettes. This review aims at providing an update on the implications of nicotine on general decision-making processes, with an emphasis on impulsivity and risk-taking. As impulsivity is a rather ambiguous behavioral trait, we build on economic and normative theories to better characterize these nicotine-induced alterations in decision-making. Nonetheless, experimental data are sparse and often contradictory. We will discuss how the latest findings on the neurobiological basis of choice behavior may help disentangling these issues. We focus on the role of nicotine acetylcholine receptors and their different subunits, and on the spatio-temporal dynamics (i.e. diversity of the neural circuits, short- and long-term effects) of both endogenous acetylcholine and nicotine action. Finally, we try to link these neurobiological results with neuro-computational models of attention, valuation and action, and of the role of acetylcholine in these decision processes. This article is part of the Special Issue entitled 'The Nicotinic Acetylcholine Receptor: From Molecular Biology to Cognition'. PMID:25498234

  12. Nicotinic alteration of decision-making.

    PubMed

    Naudé, Jérémie; Dongelmans, Malou; Faure, Philippe

    2015-09-01

    Addiction to nicotine is characterized by impulses, urges and lack of self-control towards cigarettes. A key element in the process of addiction is the development of habits oriented towards nicotine consumption that surpass flexible systems as a consequence of a gradual adaptation to chronic drug exposure. However, the long-term effects of nicotine on brain circuits also induce wide changes in decision-making processes, affecting behaviors unrelated to cigarettes. This review aims at providing an update on the implications of nicotine on general decision-making processes, with an emphasis on impulsivity and risk-taking. As impulsivity is a rather ambiguous behavioral trait, we build on economic and normative theories to better characterize these nicotine-induced alterations in decision-making. Nonetheless, experimental data are sparse and often contradictory. We will discuss how the latest findings on the neurobiological basis of choice behavior may help disentangling these issues. We focus on the role of nicotine acetylcholine receptors and their different subunits, and on the spatio-temporal dynamics (i.e. diversity of the neural circuits, short- and long-term effects) of both endogenous acetylcholine and nicotine action. Finally, we try to link these neurobiological results with neuro-computational models of attention, valuation and action, and of the role of acetylcholine in these decision processes. This article is part of the Special Issue entitled 'The Nicotinic Acetylcholine Receptor: From Molecular Biology to Cognition'.

  13. Computerized Clinical Decision Support: Contributions from 2014

    PubMed Central

    Koutkias, V.

    2015-01-01

    Summary Objective To summarize recent research and propose a selection of best papers published in 2014 in the field of computerized clinical decision support for the Decision Support section of the IMIA yearbook. Method A literature review was performed by searching two bibliographic databases for papers related to clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) and computerized provider order entry systems in order to select a list of candidate best papers to be then peer-reviewed by external reviewers. A consensus meeting between the two section editors and the editorial team was finally organized to conclude on the selection of best papers. Results Among the 1,254 returned papers published in 2014, the full review process selected four best papers. The first one is an experimental contribution to a better understanding of unintended uses of CDSSs. The second paper describes the effective use of previously collected data to tailor and adapt a CDSS. The third paper presents an innovative application that uses pharmacogenomic information to support personalized medicine. The fourth paper reports on the long-term effect of the routine use of a CDSS for antibiotic therapy. Conclusions As health information technologies spread more and more meaningfully, CDSSs are improving to answer users’ needs more accurately. The exploitation of previously collected data and the use of genomic data for decision support has started to materialize. However, more work is still needed to address issues related to the correct usage of such technologies, and to assess their effective impact in the long term. PMID:26293858

  14. Making Decisions in Quality Circles.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Browne, Mildred

    This monograph provides educational staff with a theoretical basis for decision-making skills for application in quality circles. Roadblocks to good decisions are outlined, as well as the differences between group decision-making and individual decision-making (both have problems). The influence of values and personality characteristics on…

  15. Decision-Theoretic Control of Planetary Rovers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zilberstein, Shlomo; Washington, Richard; Bernstein, Daniel S.; Mouaddib, Abdel-Illah; Morris, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    Planetary rovers are small unmanned vehicles equipped with cameras and a variety of sensors used for scientific experiments. They must operate under tight constraints over such resources as operation time, power, storage capacity, and communication bandwidth. Moreover, the limited computational resources of the rover limit the complexity of on-line planning and scheduling. We describe two decision-theoretic approaches to maximize the productivity of planetary rovers: one based on adaptive planning and the other on hierarchical reinforcement learning. Both approaches map the problem into a Markov decision problem and attempt to solve a large part of the problem off-line, exploiting the structure of the plan and independence between plan components. We examine the advantages and limitations of these techniques and their scalability.

  16. Plant cell gravisensitivity and adaptation to microgravity.

    PubMed

    Kordyum, E L

    2014-01-01

    A short overview on the effects of real and simulated microgravity on certain cell components and processes, including new information obtained recently, is presented. Attention is focused on the influence of real and simulated microgravity on plant cells that are not specialised to gravity perception and on seed formation. The paper considers the possibility of full adaptation of plants to microgravity, and suggests some questions for future plant research in order to make decisions on fundamental and applied problems of plant space biology.

  17. Algorithms for optimal dyadic decision trees

    SciTech Connect

    Hush, Don; Porter, Reid

    2009-01-01

    A new algorithm for constructing optimal dyadic decision trees was recently introduced, analyzed, and shown to be very effective for low dimensional data sets. This paper enhances and extends this algorithm by: introducing an adaptive grid search for the regularization parameter that guarantees optimal solutions for all relevant trees sizes, revising the core tree-building algorithm so that its run time is substantially smaller for most regularization parameter values on the grid, and incorporating new data structures and data pre-processing steps that provide significant run time enhancement in practice.

  18. Brain networks for exploration decisions utilizing distinct modeled information types during contextual learning

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Jane X.; Voss, Joel L.

    2014-01-01

    Summary Exploration permits acquisition of the most relevant information during learning. However, the specific information needed, the influences of this information on decision-making, and the relevant neural mechanisms remain poorly understood. We modeled distinct information types available during contextual association learning and used model-based fMRI in conjunction with manipulation of exploratory decision-making to identify neural activity associated with information-based decisions. We identified hippocampal-prefrontal contributions to advantageous decisions based on immediately available novel information, distinct from striatal contributions to advantageous decisions based on the sum total available (accumulated) information. Furthermore, network-level interactions among these regions during exploratory decision-making were related to learning success. These findings link strategic exploration decisions during learning to quantifiable information and advance understanding of adaptive behavior by identifying the distinct and interactive nature of brain-network contributions to decisions based on distinct information types. PMID:24908493

  19. Decisions Based on Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Campbell, Vincent; Lofstrom, Jocelyn; Jerome, Brian

    This guide makes the case for a decision-making focus in the science curriculum as a response to concern over preparing scientifically literate students. The student activities are organized by guided activities and independent exercises. Themes of the guided activities include xenotransplants, immunizations, household cleaning products, ozone,…

  20. Explicating Individual Training Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walter, Marcel; Mueller, Normann

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we explicate individual training decisions. For this purpose, we propose a framework based on instrumentality theory, a psychological theory of motivation that has frequently been applied to individual occupational behavior. To test this framework, we employ novel German individual data and estimate the effect of subjective expected…

  1. Matriarchal Decision-Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Warner, Linda Sue

    In contrast to European cultures, many American Indian societies have been matriarchal. Indian women have had a great deal of power, both as individuals and as groups, and have held various leadership roles within their tribes. Traditionally, Indian women have worked in partnership with men, and decision-making has been related to consensus…

  2. Decisions Concerning Directional Dependence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    von Eye, Alexander; DeShon, Richard P.

    2012-01-01

    In this rejoinder, von Eye and DeShon discuss the decision strategies proposed in their original article ("Directional Dependence in Developmental Research," this issue), as well as the ones proposed by the authors of the commentary (Pornprasertmanit and Little, "Determining Directional Dependency in Causal Associations," this issue). In addition,…

  3. Participative Decision-Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindelow, John; And Others

    Chapter 7 of a revised volume on school leadership, this chapter advocates the use of participative decision-making (PDM) at the school site level, outlines implementation guidelines, and describes the experiences of some schools with PDM systems. A cornerstone of a reform movement to make organizational operations more democratic and less…

  4. Great Decisions '86.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoepli, Nancy L., Ed.

    Designed to initiate discussion of foreign policy decisions, this book contains an analysis of eight foreign policy issues confronting the United States in 1986. Each unit provides the background and guidelines to provide perspective to assist in understanding foreign policy crises. The units included in this issue are: (1) "How Foreign Policy Is…

  5. Making Good Tenure Decisions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Becker, Samuel L.; Galvin, Kathleen M.; Houston, Marsha; Friedrich, Gustav W.; Pearson, Judy C.; Seiler, William J.; Trent, Judith S.

    2001-01-01

    Presents criteria and procedures that can help to substantially increase the probability of a good tenure decision. Notes that the tenure procedures must be designed and followed in a way that ensures, to the degree possible, validity, fairness, and equity. Stresses the importance of maintaining good records and mentoring. (SG)

  6. Pricing Decisions: A Game.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Read, Simon

    1989-01-01

    Describes a game that illustrates the effects of pricing on profit. Students compete against each other in an imaginary industry and become familiar with decision-making processes. Depicts the gameboard, how to make it, and how to use it. (GG)

  7. Facilitating Decisions under Scarcity.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bloomfield, Stefan D.

    1993-01-01

    This article proposes a conceptual decision-making framework for college and university offices of institutional research during times when budgetary retrenchment and reallocation of resources is necessary. Key issues the office should consider include understanding the institution's purpose, strategy selection, evaluation activities, student…

  8. Learning from Failed Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nutt, Paul C.

    2010-01-01

    The consequences and dilemmas posed by learning issues for decision making are discussed. Learning requires both awareness of barriers and a coping strategy. The motives to hold back information essential for learning stem from perverse incentives, obscure outcomes, and the hindsight bias. There is little awareness of perverse incentives that…

  9. Decision Analysis Using Spreadsheets.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sounderpandian, Jayavel

    1989-01-01

    Discussion of decision analysis and its importance in a business curriculum focuses on the use of spreadsheets instead of commercial software packages for computer assisted instruction. A hypothetical example is given of a company drilling for oil, and suggestions are provided for classroom exercises using spreadsheets. (seven references) (LRW)

  10. Decision by Sampling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, Neil; Chater, Nick; Brown, Gordon D. A.

    2006-01-01

    We present a theory of decision by sampling (DbS) in which, in contrast with traditional models, there are no underlying psychoeconomic scales. Instead, we assume that an attribute's subjective value is constructed from a series of binary, ordinal comparisons to a sample of attribute values drawn from memory and is its rank within the sample. We…

  11. Do Bayesian adaptive trials offer advantages for comparative effectiveness research? Protocol for the RE-ADAPT study

    PubMed Central

    Luce, Bryan R; Broglio, Kristine R; Ishak, K Jack; Mullins, C Daniel; Vanness, David J; Fleurence, Rachael; Saunders, Elijah; Davis, Barry R

    2013-01-01

    Background Randomized clinical trials, particularly for comparative effectiveness research (CER), are frequently criticized for being overly restrictive or untimely for health-care decision making. Purpose Our prospectively designed REsearch in ADAptive methods for Pragmatic Trials (RE-ADAPT) study is a ‘proof of concept’ to stimulate investment in Bayesian adaptive designs for future CER trials. Methods We will assess whether Bayesian adaptive designs offer potential efficiencies in CER by simulating a re-execution of the Antihypertensive and Lipid Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT) study using actual data from ALLHAT. Results We prospectively define seven alternate designs consisting of various combinations of arm dropping, adaptive randomization, and early stopping and describe how these designs will be compared to the original ALLHAT design. We identify the one particular design that would have been executed, which incorporates early stopping and information-based adaptive randomization. Limitations While the simulation realistically emulates patient enrollment, interim analyses, and adaptive changes to design, it cannot incorporate key features like the involvement of data monitoring committee in making decisions about adaptive changes. Conclusion This article describes our analytic approach for RE-ADAPT. The next stage of the project is to conduct the re-execution analyses using the seven prespecified designs and the original ALLHAT data. PMID:23983160

  12. Using Uncertain Climate and Development Information in Health Adaptation Planning.

    PubMed

    Ebi, Kristie L; Hess, Jeremy J; Isaksen, Tania Busch

    2016-03-01

    To aid health adaptation decision-making, there are increasing efforts to provide climate projections at finer temporal and spatial scales. Relying solely on projected climate changes for longer-term decisions makes the implicit assumption that sources of vulnerability other than climate change will remain the same, which is not very probable. Over longer time horizons, this approach likely over estimates the extent to which climate change could alter the magnitude and pattern of health outcomes, introducing systematic bias into health management decisions. To balance this potential bias, decision-makers also need projections of other drivers of health outcomes that are, like climate change, recognized determinants of some disease burdens. Incorporating projections via an iterative process that allows for regular updates based on new knowledge and experience has the potential to improve the utility of fine-scale climate projections in health system adaptation to climate change.

  13. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  14. Shared clinical decision making

    PubMed Central

    AlHaqwi, Ali I.; AlDrees, Turki M.; AlRumayyan, Ahmad; AlFarhan, Ali I.; Alotaibi, Sultan S.; AlKhashan, Hesham I.; Badri, Motasim

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: To determine preferences of patients regarding their involvement in the clinical decision making process and the related factors in Saudi Arabia. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in a major family practice center in King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, between March and May 2012. Multivariate multinomial regression models were fitted to identify factors associated with patients preferences. Results: The study included 236 participants. The most preferred decision-making style was shared decision-making (57%), followed by paternalistic (28%), and informed consumerism (14%). The preference for shared clinical decision making was significantly higher among male patients and those with higher level of education, whereas paternalism was significantly higher among older patients and those with chronic health conditions, and consumerism was significantly higher in younger age groups. In multivariate multinomial regression analysis, compared with the shared group, the consumerism group were more likely to be female [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) =2.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31-6.27, p=0.008] and non-dyslipidemic (AOR=2.90, 95% CI: 1.03-8.09, p=0.04), and the paternalism group were more likely to be older (AOR=1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.05, p=0.04), and female (AOR=2.47, 95% CI: 1.32-4.06, p=0.008). Conclusion: Preferences of patients for involvement in the clinical decision-making varied considerably. In our setting, underlying factors that influence these preferences identified in this study should be considered and tailored individually to achieve optimal treatment outcomes. PMID:26620990

  15. Genetic algorithms in adaptive fuzzy control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Karr, C. Lucas; Harper, Tony R.

    1992-01-01

    Researchers at the U.S. Bureau of Mines have developed adaptive process control systems in which genetic algorithms (GA's) are used to augment fuzzy logic controllers (FLC's). GA's are search algorithms that rapidly locate near-optimum solutions to a wide spectrum of problems by modeling the search procedures of natural genetics. FLC's are rule based systems that efficiently manipulate a problem environment by modeling the 'rule-of-thumb' strategy used in human decision making. Together, GA's and FLC's possess the capabilities necessary to produce powerful, efficient, and robust adaptive control systems. To perform efficiently, such control systems require a control element to manipulate the problem environment, an analysis element to recognize changes in the problem environment, and a learning element to adjust fuzzy membership functions in response to the changes in the problem environment. Details of an overall adaptive control system are discussed. A specific computer-simulated chemical system is used to demonstrate the ideas presented.

  16. Decision-related perturbations of decision-irrelevant eye movements

    PubMed Central

    Joo, Sung Jun; Katz, Leor N.; Huk, Alexander C.

    2016-01-01

    It is well established that ongoing cognitive functions affect the trajectories of limb movements mediated by corticospinal circuits, suggesting an interaction between cognition and motor action. Although there are also many demonstrations that decision formation is reflected in the ongoing neural activity in oculomotor brain circuits, it is not known whether the decision-related activity in those oculomotor structures interacts with eye movements that are decision irrelevant. Here we tested for an interaction between decisions and instructed saccades unrelated to the perceptual decision. Observers performed a direction-discrimination decision-making task, but made decision-irrelevant saccades before registering their motion decision with a button press. Probing the oculomotor circuits with these decision-irrelevant saccades during decision making revealed that saccade reaction times and peak velocities were influenced in proportion to motion strength, and depended on the directional congruence between decisions about visual motion and decision-irrelevant saccades. These interactions disappeared when observers passively viewed the motion stimulus but still made the same instructed saccades, and when manual reaction times were measured instead of saccade reaction times, confirming that these interactions result from decision formation as opposed to visual stimulation, and are specific to the oculomotor system. Our results demonstrate that oculomotor function can be affected by decision formation, even when decisions are communicated without eye movements, and that this interaction has a directionally specific component. These results not only imply a continuous and interactive mixture of motor and decision signals in oculomotor structures, but also suggest nonmotor recruitment of oculomotor machinery in decision making. PMID:26831067

  17. The conceptual foundation of environmental decision support.

    PubMed

    Reichert, Peter; Langhans, Simone D; Lienert, Judit; Schuwirth, Nele

    2015-05-01

    Environmental decision support intends to use the best available scientific knowledge to help decision makers find and evaluate management alternatives. The goal of this process is to achieve the best fulfillment of societal objectives. This requires a careful analysis of (i) how scientific knowledge can be represented and quantified, (ii) how societal preferences can be described and elicited, and (iii) how these concepts can best be used to support communication with authorities, politicians, and the public in environmental management. The goal of this paper is to discuss key requirements for a conceptual framework to address these issues and to suggest how these can best be met. We argue that a combination of probability theory and scenario planning with multi-attribute utility theory fulfills these requirements, and discuss adaptations and extensions of these theories to improve their application for supporting environmental decision making. With respect to (i) we suggest the use of intersubjective probabilities, if required extended to imprecise probabilities, to describe the current state of scientific knowledge. To address (ii), we emphasize the importance of value functions, in addition to utilities, to support decisions under risk. We discuss the need for testing "non-standard" value aggregation techniques, the usefulness of flexibility of value functions regarding attribute data availability, the elicitation of value functions for sub-objectives from experts, and the consideration of uncertainty in value and utility elicitation. With respect to (iii), we outline a well-structured procedure for transparent environmental decision support that is based on a clear separation of scientific prediction and societal valuation. We illustrate aspects of the suggested methodology by its application to river management in general and with a small, didactical case study on spatial river rehabilitation prioritization. PMID:25748599

  18. The conceptual foundation of environmental decision support.

    PubMed

    Reichert, Peter; Langhans, Simone D; Lienert, Judit; Schuwirth, Nele

    2015-05-01

    Environmental decision support intends to use the best available scientific knowledge to help decision makers find and evaluate management alternatives. The goal of this process is to achieve the best fulfillment of societal objectives. This requires a careful analysis of (i) how scientific knowledge can be represented and quantified, (ii) how societal preferences can be described and elicited, and (iii) how these concepts can best be used to support communication with authorities, politicians, and the public in environmental management. The goal of this paper is to discuss key requirements for a conceptual framework to address these issues and to suggest how these can best be met. We argue that a combination of probability theory and scenario planning with multi-attribute utility theory fulfills these requirements, and discuss adaptations and extensions of these theories to improve their application for supporting environmental decision making. With respect to (i) we suggest the use of intersubjective probabilities, if required extended to imprecise probabilities, to describe the current state of scientific knowledge. To address (ii), we emphasize the importance of value functions, in addition to utilities, to support decisions under risk. We discuss the need for testing "non-standard" value aggregation techniques, the usefulness of flexibility of value functions regarding attribute data availability, the elicitation of value functions for sub-objectives from experts, and the consideration of uncertainty in value and utility elicitation. With respect to (iii), we outline a well-structured procedure for transparent environmental decision support that is based on a clear separation of scientific prediction and societal valuation. We illustrate aspects of the suggested methodology by its application to river management in general and with a small, didactical case study on spatial river rehabilitation prioritization.

  19. Legal briefing: Shared decision making and patient decision aids.

    PubMed

    Pope, Thaddeus Mason; Hexum, Melinda

    2013-01-01

    This "Legal Briefing" column covers recent legal developments involving patient decision aids.This topic has been the subject of recent articles in JCE. It is included in the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. And it has received significant attention in the biomedical literature, including a new book, a thematic issue of Health Affairs, and a recent article in the New England Journal of Medicine. Moreover, physicians and health systems across the United States are increasingly integrating decision aids into their clinical practice. Both federal and state laws play a significant role in promoting this expanded use. On the other hand, concerns about liability could stymie development and implementation. We categorize legal developments concerning patient decision aids into the following five sections: 1. Development of decision aids. 2. Effectiveness of decision aids. 3. Federal regulation of decision aids. 4. State regulation of decision aids. 5. Legal concerns regarding decision aids.

  20. The Self in Decision Making and Decision Implementation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beach, Lee Roy; Mitchell, Terence R.

    Since the early 1950's the principal prescriptive model in the psychological study of decision making has been maximization of Subjective Expected Utility (SEU). This SEU maximization has come to be regarded as a description of how people go about making decisions. However, while observed decision processes sometimes resemble the SEU model,…

  1. Changing Times, Complex Decisions: Presidential Values and Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hornak, Anne M.; Garza Mitchell, Regina L.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this article is to delve more deeply into the thought processes of the key decision makers at community colleges and understand how they make decisions. Specifically, this article focuses on the role of the community college president's personal values in decision making. Method: We conducted interviews with 13…

  2. IBRD Operational Decision Framework

    SciTech Connect

    Greenwalt, R; Hibbard, W; Raber, E; Carlsen, T; Folks, K; MacQueen, D; Mancieri, S; Bunt, T; Richards, J; Hirabayashi-Dethier, J

    2010-11-12

    The IBRD Operational Decision Framework in this document is an expansion of an emerging general risk management framework under development by an interagency working group. It provides the level of detail necessary to develop a general Consequence Management Guidance Document for biological contamination remediation and restoration. It is the intent of this document to support both wide area and individual site remediation and restoration activities. This product was initiated as a portion of the IBRD Task 1 Systems Analysis to aid in identification of wide area remediation and restoration shortcomings and gaps. The draft interagency general risk management framework was used as the basis for the analysis. The initial Task 1 analysis document expanded the draft interagency framework to a higher level of resolution, building on both the logic structure and the accompanying text explanations. It was then employed in a qualitative manner to identify responsible agencies, data requirements, tool requirements, and current capabilities for each decision and task. This resulted in identifying shortcomings and gaps needing resolution. Several meetings of a joint LLNL/SNL working group reviewed and approved the initial content of this analysis. At the conclusion of Task 1, work continued on the expanded framework to generate this Operational Decision Framework which is consistent with the existing interagency general risk management framework. A large LLNL task group met repeatedly over a three-month period to develop the expanded framework, coordinate the framework with the biological remediation checklist, and synchronize the logic with the Consequence Management Plan table of contents. The expanded framework was briefed at a large table top exercise reviewing the interagency risk management framework. This exercise had representation from major US metropolitan areas as well as national agencies. This product received positive comments from the participants. Upon

  3. "Decisions, decisions, decisions": transfer and specificity of decision-making skill between sports.

    PubMed

    Causer, Joe; Ford, Paul R

    2014-08-01

    The concept of transfer of learning holds that previous practice or experience in one task or domain will enable successful performance in another related task or domain. In contrast, specificity of learning holds that previous practice or experience in one task or domain does not transfer to other related tasks or domains. The aim of the current study is to examine whether decision-making skill transfers between sports that share similar elements, or whether it is specific to a sport. Participants (n = 205) completed a video-based temporal occlusion decision-making test in which they were required to decide on which action to execute across a series of 4 versus 4 soccer game situations. A sport engagement questionnaire was used to identify 106 soccer players, 43 other invasion sport players and 58 other sport players. Positive transfer of decision-making skill occurred between soccer and other invasion sports, which are related and have similar elements, but not from volleyball, supporting the concept of transfer of learning.

  4. Organizational Adaptation and Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cameron, Kim S.

    1984-01-01

    Organizational adaptation and types of adaptation needed in academe in the future are reviewed and major conceptual approaches to organizational adaptation are presented. The probable environment that institutions will face in the future that will require adaptation is discussed. (MLW)

  5. Human heat adaptation.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Nigel A S

    2014-01-01

    In this overview, human morphological and functional adaptations during naturally and artificially induced heat adaptation are explored. Through discussions of adaptation theory and practice, a theoretical basis is constructed for evaluating heat adaptation. It will be argued that some adaptations are specific to the treatment used, while others are generalized. Regarding ethnic differences in heat tolerance, the case is put that reported differences in heat tolerance are not due to natural selection, but can be explained on the basis of variations in adaptation opportunity. These concepts are expanded to illustrate how traditional heat adaptation and acclimatization represent forms of habituation, and thermal clamping (controlled hyperthermia) is proposed as a superior model for mechanistic research. Indeed, this technique has led to questioning the perceived wisdom of body-fluid changes, such as the expansion and subsequent decay of plasma volume, and sudomotor function, including sweat habituation and redistribution. Throughout, this contribution was aimed at taking another step toward understanding the phenomenon of heat adaptation and stimulating future research. In this regard, research questions are posed concerning the influence that variations in morphological configuration may exert upon adaptation, the determinants of postexercise plasma volume recovery, and the physiological mechanisms that modify the cholinergic sensitivity of sweat glands, and changes in basal metabolic rate and body core temperature following adaptation.

  6. An introduction to adaptive management for threatened and endangered species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, Michael C.

    2011-01-01

    Management of threatened and endangered species would seem to be a perfect context for adaptive management. Many of the decisions are recurrent and plagued by uncertainty, exactly the conditions that warrant an adaptive approach. But although the potential of adaptive management in these settings has been extolled, there are limited applications in practice. The impediments to practical implementation are manifold and include semantic confusion, institutional inertia, misperceptions about the suitability and utility, and a lack of guiding examples. In this special section of the Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management, we hope to reinvigorate the appropriate application of adaptive management for threatened and endangered species by framing such management in a decision-analytical context, clarifying misperceptions, classifying the types of decisions that might be amenable to an adaptive approach, and providing three fully developed case studies. In this overview paper, I define terms, review the past application of adaptive management, challenge perceived hurdles, and set the stage for the case studies which follow.

  7. Soft Decision Analyzer and Method

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Steele, Glen F. (Inventor); Lansdowne, Chatwin (Inventor); Zucha, Joan P. (Inventor); Schlesinger, Adam M. (Inventor)

    2016-01-01

    A soft decision analyzer system is operable to interconnect soft decision communication equipment and analyze the operation thereof to detect symbol wise alignment between a test data stream and a reference data stream in a variety of operating conditions.

  8. Soft Decision Analyzer and Method

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Steele, Glen F. (Inventor); Lansdowne, Chatwin (Inventor); Zucha, Joan P. (Inventor); Schlesinger, Adam M. (Inventor)

    2015-01-01

    A soft decision analyzer system is operable to interconnect soft decision communication equipment and analyze the operation thereof to detect symbol wise alignment between a test data stream and a reference data stream in a variety of operating conditions.

  9. Virginity: A Very Personal Decision

    MedlinePlus

    ... for Parents for Kids for Teens Teens Home Body Mind Sexual Health Food & Fitness Diseases & Conditions Infections Q& ... enough to make your own decisions about your mind and body. If you find yourself feeling confused about decisions ...

  10. A roadmap for climate change adaptation in Sweden's forests: addressing wicked problems using adaptive management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rist, L.; Felton, A.; Samuelsson, L.; Marald, E.; Karlsson, B.; Johansson, U.; Rosvall, O.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have significant direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems. Forests will have to adapt not only to changes in mean climate variables but also to increased climatic variability and altered disturbance regimes. Rates of change will likely exceed many forests capabilities to naturally adapt and many of today's trees will be exposed to the climates of 2090. In Sweden the effects are already being seen and more severe impacts are expected in the future. Exacerbating the challenge posed by climate change, a large proportion of Sweden's forests are, as a consequence of dominant production goals, greatly simplified and thus potentially more vulnerable to the uncertainties and risks associated with climate change. This simplification also confers reduced adaptive capacity to respond to potential impacts. Furthermore, many adaptation measures themselves carry uncertainties and risks. Future changes and effects are thus uncertain, yet forest managers, policymakers, scientists and other stakeholders must act. Strategies that build social and ecological resilience in the face of multiple interacting unknowns and surprises are needed. Adaptive management aims to collect and integrate knowledge about how a managed system is likely to respond to alternative management schemes and changing environmental conditions within a continuous decision process. There have been suggestions that adaptive management is not well suited to the large complex uncertainties associated with climate change and associated adaptation measures. However, more recently it has been suggested that adaptive management can handle such wicked problems, given adequate resources and a suitable breakdown of the targeted uncertainties. Here we test this hypothesis by evaluating how an adaptive management process could be used to manage the uncertainties and risks associated with securing resilient, biodiverse and productive forests in Sweden in the face of climate change. We

  11. Bayes multiple decision functions.

    PubMed

    Wu, Wensong; Peña, Edsel A

    2013-01-01

    This paper deals with the problem of simultaneously making many (M) binary decisions based on one realization of a random data matrix X. M is typically large and X will usually have M rows associated with each of the M decisions to make, but for each row the data may be low dimensional. Such problems arise in many practical areas such as the biological and medical sciences, where the available dataset is from microarrays or other high-throughput technology and with the goal being to decide which among of many genes are relevant with respect to some phenotype of interest; in the engineering and reliability sciences; in astronomy; in education; and in business. A Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to this problem is implemented with the overall loss function being a cost-weighted linear combination of Type I and Type II loss functions. The class of loss functions considered allows for use of the false discovery rate (FDR), false nondiscovery rate (FNR), and missed discovery rate (MDR) in assessing the quality of decision. Through this Bayesian paradigm, the Bayes multiple decision function (BMDF) is derived and an efficient algorithm to obtain the optimal Bayes action is described. In contrast to many works in the literature where the rows of the matrix X are assumed to be stochastically independent, we allow a dependent data structure with the associations obtained through a class of frailty-induced Archimedean copulas. In particular, non-Gaussian dependent data structure, which is typical with failure-time data, can be entertained. The numerical implementation of the determination of the Bayes optimal action is facilitated through sequential Monte Carlo techniques. The theory developed could also be extended to the problem of multiple hypotheses testing, multiple classification and prediction, and high-dimensional variable selection. The proposed procedure is illustrated for the simple versus simple hypotheses setting and for the composite hypotheses setting

  12. NASA Climate Adaptation Science Investigators (CASI) Workgroup

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Horton, R.

    2011-12-01

    The Climate Adaptation Science Investigators (CASI) Workgroup is comprised of NASA Earth scientists, applications researchers and institutional stewards, tasked with assisting the development of Climate Change Adaptation strategies for NASA as a whole as well as at individual Centers. In an Executive Order dated October 5, 2009, titled "Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy, and Economic Performance" the President mandates that all agencies "evaluate agency climate-change risks and vulnerabilities to manage the effects of climate change on the agency's operations and mission in both the short and long-term." To further these goals, the CASI Workgroup contributes to the scientific advancement of relevant climate and impacts studies at the Center-scale, contributes to a body of knowledge on how to apply Earth science in decision-making and ensures that NASA institutional stewards' decision-making process benefits from the best available scientific information. Climate variability and climate change pose a range of hazards to the NASA Centers located throughout the country. These changing climate hazards may challenge key NASA missions by threatening operations and damaging critical infrastructure. Studying and understanding these hazards are essential to ensuring effective risk management for the centers. By developing climate change adaptation strategies tailored to the specific impacts that are anticipated, NASA decision makers will be able to minimize negative effects of climate and climate change, while leveraging positive outcomes. The NASA CASI Workgroup will perform a variety of tasks including development of climate projections for each Center, inventory of climate and climate impact data and project activities within NASA, assessment of adaption approaches and Center-level planning strategies, recommendations for future research initiatives, and leading of thematic and region-specific workshops.

  13. Linguistic decision making for robot route learning.

    PubMed

    He, Hongmei; McGinnity, Thomas Martin; Coleman, Sonya; Gardiner, Bryan

    2014-01-01

    Machine learning enables the creation of a nonlinear mapping that describes robot-environment interaction, whereas computing linguistics make the interaction transparent. In this paper, we develop a novel application of a linguistic decision tree for a robot route learning problem by dynamically deciding the robot's behavior, which is decomposed into atomic actions in the context of a specified task. We examine the real-time performance of training and control of a linguistic decision tree, and explore the possibility of training a machine learning model in an adaptive system without dual CPUs for parallelization of training and control. A quantified evaluation approach is proposed, and a score is defined for the evaluation of a model's robustness regarding the quality of training data. Compared with the nonlinear system identification nonlinear auto-regressive moving average with eXogeneous inputs model structure with offline parameter estimation, the linguistic decision tree model with online linguistic ID3 learning achieves much better performance, robustness, and reliability.

  14. Impaired strategic decision making in schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hyojin; Lee, Daeyeol; Shin, Young-Min; Chey, Jeanyung

    2007-11-14

    Adaptive decision making in dynamic social settings requires frequent re-evaluation of choice outcomes and revision of strategies. This requires an array of multiple cognitive abilities, such as working memory and response inhibition. Thus, the disruption of such abilities in schizophrenia can have significant implications for social dysfunctions in affected patients. In the present study, 20 schizophrenia patients and 20 control subjects completed two computerized binary decision-making tasks. In the first task, the participants played a competitive zero-sum game against a computer in which the predictable choice behavior was penalized and the optimal strategy was to choose the two targets stochastically. In the second task, the expected payoffs of the two targets were fixed and unaffected by the subject's choices, so the optimal strategy was to choose the target with the higher expected payoff exclusively. The schizophrenia patients earned significantly less money during the first task, even though their overall choice probabilities were not significantly different from the control subjects. This was mostly because patients were impaired in integrating the outcomes of their previous choices appropriately in order to maintain the optimal strategy. During the second task, the choices of patients and control subjects displayed more similar patterns. This study elucidated the specific components in strategic decision making that are impaired in schizophrenia. The deficit, which can be characterized as strategic stiffness, may have implications for the poor social adjustment in schizophrenia patients. PMID:17905200

  15. [Decision Making and Electrodermal Activity].

    PubMed

    Kobayakawa, Mutsutaka

    2016-08-01

    Decision making is aided by emotions. Bodily responses, such as sweating, heartbeat, and visceral sensation, are used to monitor the emotional state during decision making. Because decision making in dairy life is complicated and cognitively demanding, these bodily signals are thought to facilitate the decision making process by assigning positive or negative values for each of the behavioral options. The sweat response in a decision making task is measured by skin conductance response (SCR). SCR in decision making is divided into two categories: anticipatory SCR is observed before making decisions, and reward/punishment SCR is observed after the outcome of the decision is perceived. Brain lesion studies in human revealed that the amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex are important in decision making. Patients with lesinon in the amygdala exhibit neither the anticipatory nor reward/punishment SCRs, while patients with the ventromedial prefrontal lesions have deficits only in the anticipatory SCRs. Decision making tasks and SCR analysis have contributed to reveal the implicit aspects of decision making. Further research is necessary for clarifying the role of explicit process of decision making and its relationship with the implicit process.

  16. [Decision-making in health].

    PubMed

    Tabuteau, Didler

    2008-01-01

    A number of different types of health decisions and choices can be distinguished from a wide range: individual decisions, health policy decisions, health action decisions, regulatory decisions regarding the health system, micro-level health decisions and decisions made outside of the health sector. With regard to health-related matters, decision-making is characterised by the level of uncertainty, the complexity of the health system and its structure, the role of urgency and the obligation to act; however, there is a significant emotional factor in these decisions and the supremacy of the individual in the decision-making process. On the policy side, health-related decision-making poses questions concerning the role of expertise and necessitates the development of public debate. The issue of a better balance between the quest for security and safety and respect for civil liberties and rights should be more and more acute in the future. As for the matter of health financing, namely through social security and insurance, it calls for a re-examination of the economic analysis of health decisions and policy and the development of a more coherent position on the right to health versus the right to universal coverage.

  17. [Decision Making and Electrodermal Activity].

    PubMed

    Kobayakawa, Mutsutaka

    2016-08-01

    Decision making is aided by emotions. Bodily responses, such as sweating, heartbeat, and visceral sensation, are used to monitor the emotional state during decision making. Because decision making in dairy life is complicated and cognitively demanding, these bodily signals are thought to facilitate the decision making process by assigning positive or negative values for each of the behavioral options. The sweat response in a decision making task is measured by skin conductance response (SCR). SCR in decision making is divided into two categories: anticipatory SCR is observed before making decisions, and reward/punishment SCR is observed after the outcome of the decision is perceived. Brain lesion studies in human revealed that the amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex are important in decision making. Patients with lesinon in the amygdala exhibit neither the anticipatory nor reward/punishment SCRs, while patients with the ventromedial prefrontal lesions have deficits only in the anticipatory SCRs. Decision making tasks and SCR analysis have contributed to reveal the implicit aspects of decision making. Further research is necessary for clarifying the role of explicit process of decision making and its relationship with the implicit process. PMID:27503819

  18. Technology transfer for adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biagini, Bonizella; Kuhl, Laura; Gallagher, Kelly Sims; Ortiz, Claudia

    2014-09-01

    Technology alone will not be able to solve adaptation challenges, but it is likely to play an important role. As a result of the role of technology in adaptation and the importance of international collaboration for climate change, technology transfer for adaptation is a critical but understudied issue. Through an analysis of Global Environment Facility-managed adaptation projects, we find there is significantly more technology transfer occurring in adaptation projects than might be expected given the pessimistic rhetoric surrounding technology transfer for adaptation. Most projects focused on demonstration and early deployment/niche formation for existing technologies rather than earlier stages of innovation, which is understandable considering the pilot nature of the projects. Key challenges for the transfer process, including technology selection and appropriateness under climate change, markets and access to technology, and diffusion strategies are discussed in more detail.

  19. Origins of adaptive immunity.

    PubMed

    Liongue, Clifford; John, Liza B; Ward, Alister

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive immunity, involving distinctive antibody- and cell-mediated responses to specific antigens based on "memory" of previous exposure, is a hallmark of higher vertebrates. It has been argued that adaptive immunity arose rapidly, as articulated in the "big bang theory" surrounding its origins, which stresses the importance of coincident whole-genome duplications. Through a close examination of the key molecules and molecular processes underpinning adaptive immunity, this review suggests a less-extreme model, in which adaptive immunity emerged as part of longer evolutionary journey. Clearly, whole-genome duplications provided additional raw genetic materials that were vital to the emergence of adaptive immunity, but a variety of other genetic events were also required to generate some of the key molecules, whereas others were preexisting and simply co-opted into adaptive immunity.

  20. Adaptation and visual coding

    PubMed Central

    Webster, Michael A.

    2011-01-01

    Visual coding is a highly dynamic process and continuously adapting to the current viewing context. The perceptual changes that result from adaptation to recently viewed stimuli remain a powerful and popular tool for analyzing sensory mechanisms and plasticity. Over the last decade, the footprints of this adaptation have been tracked to both higher and lower levels of the visual pathway and over a wider range of timescales, revealing that visual processing is much more adaptable than previously thought. This work has also revealed that the pattern of aftereffects is similar across many stimulus dimensions, pointing to common coding principles in which adaptation plays a central role. However, why visual coding adapts has yet to be fully answered. PMID:21602298

  1. Parallel Anisotropic Tetrahedral Adaptation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Park, Michael A.; Darmofal, David L.

    2008-01-01

    An adaptive method that robustly produces high aspect ratio tetrahedra to a general 3D metric specification without introducing hybrid semi-structured regions is presented. The elemental operators and higher-level logic is described with their respective domain-decomposed parallelizations. An anisotropic tetrahedral grid adaptation scheme is demonstrated for 1000-1 stretching for a simple cube geometry. This form of adaptation is applicable to more complex domain boundaries via a cut-cell approach as demonstrated by a parallel 3D supersonic simulation of a complex fighter aircraft. To avoid the assumptions and approximations required to form a metric to specify adaptation, an approach is introduced that directly evaluates interpolation error. The grid is adapted to reduce and equidistribute this interpolation error calculation without the use of an intervening anisotropic metric. Direct interpolation error adaptation is illustrated for 1D and 3D domains.

  2. Origins of adaptive immunity.

    PubMed

    Liongue, Clifford; John, Liza B; Ward, Alister

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive immunity, involving distinctive antibody- and cell-mediated responses to specific antigens based on "memory" of previous exposure, is a hallmark of higher vertebrates. It has been argued that adaptive immunity arose rapidly, as articulated in the "big bang theory" surrounding its origins, which stresses the importance of coincident whole-genome duplications. Through a close examination of the key molecules and molecular processes underpinning adaptive immunity, this review suggests a less-extreme model, in which adaptive immunity emerged as part of longer evolutionary journey. Clearly, whole-genome duplications provided additional raw genetic materials that were vital to the emergence of adaptive immunity, but a variety of other genetic events were also required to generate some of the key molecules, whereas others were preexisting and simply co-opted into adaptive immunity. PMID:21395512

  3. Gravitational adaptation of animals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, A. H.; Burton, R. R.

    1982-01-01

    The effect of gravitational adaptation is studied in a group of five Leghorn cocks which had become physiologically adapted to 2 G after 162 days of centrifugation. After this period of adaptation, they are periodically exposed to a 2 G field, accompanied by five previously unexposed hatch-mates, and the degree of retained acceleration adaptation is estimated from the decrease in lymphocyte frequency after 24 hr at 2 G. Results show that the previously adapted birds exhibit an 84% greater lymphopenia than the unexposed birds, and that the lymphocyte frequency does not decrease to a level below that found at the end of 162 days at 2 G. In addition, the capacity for adaptation to chronic acceleration is found to be highly heritable. An acceleration tolerant strain of birds shows lesser mortality during chronic acceleration, particularly in intermediate fields, although the result of acceleration selection is largely quantitative (a greater number of survivors) rather than qualitative (behavioral or physiological changes).

  4. Neural and neurochemical basis of reinforcement-guided decision making.

    PubMed

    Khani, Abbas; Rainer, Gregor

    2016-08-01

    Decision making is an adaptive behavior that takes into account several internal and external input variables and leads to the choice of a course of action over other available and often competing alternatives. While it has been studied in diverse fields ranging from mathematics, economics, ecology, and ethology to psychology and neuroscience, recent cross talk among perspectives from different fields has yielded novel descriptions of decision processes. Reinforcement-guided decision making models are based on economic and reinforcement learning theories, and their focus is on the maximization of acquired benefit over a defined period of time. Studies based on reinforcement-guided decision making have implicated a large network of neural circuits across the brain. This network includes a wide range of cortical (e.g., orbitofrontal cortex and anterior cingulate cortex) and subcortical (e.g., nucleus accumbens and subthalamic nucleus) brain areas and uses several neurotransmitter systems (e.g., dopaminergic and serotonergic systems) to communicate and process decision-related information. This review discusses distinct as well as overlapping contributions of these networks and neurotransmitter systems to the processing of decision making. We end the review by touching on neural circuitry and neuromodulatory regulation of exploratory decision making.

  5. Neural and neurochemical basis of reinforcement-guided decision making.

    PubMed

    Khani, Abbas; Rainer, Gregor

    2016-08-01

    Decision making is an adaptive behavior that takes into account several internal and external input variables and leads to the choice of a course of action over other available and often competing alternatives. While it has been studied in diverse fields ranging from mathematics, economics, ecology, and ethology to psychology and neuroscience, recent cross talk among perspectives from different fields has yielded novel descriptions of decision processes. Reinforcement-guided decision making models are based on economic and reinforcement learning theories, and their focus is on the maximization of acquired benefit over a defined period of time. Studies based on reinforcement-guided decision making have implicated a large network of neural circuits across the brain. This network includes a wide range of cortical (e.g., orbitofrontal cortex and anterior cingulate cortex) and subcortical (e.g., nucleus accumbens and subthalamic nucleus) brain areas and uses several neurotransmitter systems (e.g., dopaminergic and serotonergic systems) to communicate and process decision-related information. This review discusses distinct as well as overlapping contributions of these networks and neurotransmitter systems to the processing of decision making. We end the review by touching on neural circuitry and neuromodulatory regulation of exploratory decision making. PMID:27226454

  6. Experimental adaptive Bayesian tomography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kravtsov, K. S.; Straupe, S. S.; Radchenko, I. V.; Houlsby, N. M. T.; Huszár, F.; Kulik, S. P.

    2013-06-01

    We report an experimental realization of an adaptive quantum state tomography protocol. Our method takes advantage of a Bayesian approach to statistical inference and is naturally tailored for adaptive strategies. For pure states, we observe close to N-1 scaling of infidelity with overall number of registered events, while the best nonadaptive protocols allow for N-1/2 scaling only. Experiments are performed for polarization qubits, but the approach is readily adapted to any dimension.

  7. Adaptive Pairing Reversible Watermarking.

    PubMed

    Dragoi, Ioan-Catalin; Coltuc, Dinu

    2016-05-01

    This letter revisits the pairwise reversible watermarking scheme of Ou et al., 2013. An adaptive pixel pairing that considers only pixels with similar prediction errors is introduced. This adaptive approach provides an increased number of pixel pairs where both pixels are embedded and decreases the number of shifted pixels. The adaptive pairwise reversible watermarking outperforms the state-of-the-art low embedding bit-rate schemes proposed so far.

  8. Adaptation as organism design

    PubMed Central

    Gardner, Andy

    2009-01-01

    The problem of adaptation is to explain the apparent design of organisms. Darwin solved this problem with the theory of natural selection. However, population geneticists, whose responsibility it is to formalize evolutionary theory, have long neglected the link between natural selection and organismal design. Here, I review the major historical developments in theory of organismal adaptation, clarifying what adaptation is and what it is not, and I point out future avenues for research. PMID:19793739

  9. Digital adaptive sampling.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Breazeale, G. J.; Jones, L. E.

    1971-01-01

    Discussion of digital adaptive sampling, which is consistently better than fixed sampling in noise-free cases. Adaptive sampling is shown to be feasible and, it is considered, should be studied further. It should be noted that adaptive sampling is a class of variable rate sampling in which the variability depends on system signals. Digital rather than analog laws should be studied, because cases can arise in which the analog signals are not even available. An extremely important problem is implementation.

  10. Quantifying the Adaptive Cycle.

    PubMed

    Angeler, David G; Allen, Craig R; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Gunderson, Lance H; Hjerne, Olle; Winder, Monika

    2015-01-01

    The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation) in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term (1994-2011) data and multivariate analysis of community structure to assess key components of the adaptive cycle. Specifically, we tested predictions about: reorganisation: spring and summer blooms comprise distinct community states; conservatism: community trajectories during individual adaptive cycles are conservative; and adaptation: phytoplankton species during blooms change in the long term. All predictions were supported by our analyses. Results suggest that traditional ecological paradigms such as phytoplankton successional models have potential for moving the adaptive cycle from a metaphor to a framework that can improve our understanding how complex systems organize and reorganize following collapse. Quantifying reorganization, conservatism and adaptation provides opportunities to cope with the intricacies and uncertainties associated with fast ecological change, driven by shifting system controls. Ultimately, combining traditional ecological paradigms with heuristics of complex system dynamics using quantitative approaches may help refine ecological theory and improve our understanding of the resilience of ecosystems. PMID:26716453

  11. Quantifying the adaptive cycle

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Gunderson, Lance H.; Hjerne, Olle; Winder, Monika

    2015-01-01

    The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation) in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term (1994–2011) data and multivariate analysis of community structure to assess key components of the adaptive cycle. Specifically, we tested predictions about: reorganisation: spring and summer blooms comprise distinct community states; conservatism: community trajectories during individual adaptive cycles are conservative; and adaptation: phytoplankton species during blooms change in the long term. All predictions were supported by our analyses. Results suggest that traditional ecological paradigms such as phytoplankton successional models have potential for moving the adaptive cycle from a metaphor to a framework that can improve our understanding how complex systems organize and reorganize following collapse. Quantifying reorganization, conservatism and adaptation provides opportunities to cope with the intricacies and uncertainties associated with fast ecological change, driven by shifting system controls. Ultimately, combining traditional ecological paradigms with heuristics of complex system dynamics using quantitative approaches may help refine ecological theory and improve our understanding of the resilience of ecosystems.

  12. Human adaptation to smog

    SciTech Connect

    Evans, G.W. Jacobs, S.V.; Frager, N.B.

    1982-10-01

    This study examined the health effects of human adaptation to photochemical smog. A group of recent arrivals to the Los Angeles air basin were compared to long-term residents of the basin. Evidence for adaptation included greater irritation and respiratory problems among the recent arrivals and desensitization among the long-term residents in their judgments of the severity of the smog problem to their health. There was no evidence for biochemical adaptation as measured by hemoglobin response to oxidant challenge. The results were discussed in terms of psychological adaption to chronic environmental stressors.

  13. Adaptive parallel logic networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martinez, Tony R.; Vidal, Jacques J.

    1988-01-01

    Adaptive, self-organizing concurrent systems (ASOCS) that combine self-organization with massive parallelism for such applications as adaptive logic devices, robotics, process control, and system malfunction management, are presently discussed. In ASOCS, an adaptive network composed of many simple computing elements operating in combinational and asynchronous fashion is used and problems are specified by presenting if-then rules to the system in the form of Boolean conjunctions. During data processing, which is a different operational phase from adaptation, the network acts as a parallel hardware circuit.

  14. Quantifying the Adaptive Cycle

    PubMed Central

    Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Gunderson, Lance H.; Hjerne, Olle; Winder, Monika

    2015-01-01

    The adaptive cycle was proposed as a conceptual model to portray patterns of change in complex systems. Despite the model having potential for elucidating change across systems, it has been used mainly as a metaphor, describing system dynamics qualitatively. We use a quantitative approach for testing premises (reorganisation, conservatism, adaptation) in the adaptive cycle, using Baltic Sea phytoplankton communities as an example of such complex system dynamics. Phytoplankton organizes in recurring spring and summer blooms, a well-established paradigm in planktology and succession theory, with characteristic temporal trajectories during blooms that may be consistent with adaptive cycle phases. We used long-term (1994–2011) data and multivariate analysis of community structure to assess key components of the adaptive cycle. Specifically, we tested predictions about: reorganisation: spring and summer blooms comprise distinct community states; conservatism: community trajectories during individual adaptive cycles are conservative; and adaptation: phytoplankton species during blooms change in the long term. All predictions were supported by our analyses. Results suggest that traditional ecological paradigms such as phytoplankton successional models have potential for moving the adaptive cycle from a metaphor to a framework that can improve our understanding how complex systems organize and reorganize following collapse. Quantifying reorganization, conservatism and adaptation provides opportunities to cope with the intricacies and uncertainties associated with fast ecological change, driven by shifting system controls. Ultimately, combining traditional ecological paradigms with heuristics of complex system dynamics using quantitative approaches may help refine ecological theory and improve our understanding of the resilience of ecosystems. PMID:26716453

  15. Decentralized adaptive control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oh, B. J.; Jamshidi, M.; Seraji, H.

    1988-01-01

    A decentralized adaptive control is proposed to stabilize and track the nonlinear, interconnected subsystems with unknown parameters. The adaptation of the controller gain is derived by using model reference adaptive control theory based on Lyapunov's direct method. The adaptive gains consist of sigma, proportional, and integral combination of the measured and reference values of the corresponding subsystem. The proposed control is applied to the joint control of a two-link robot manipulator, and the performance in computer simulation corresponds with what is expected in theoretical development.

  16. A Framework for Making Sustainable Cleanup Decisions Using the KONVERGENCE Model

    SciTech Connect

    Piet, Steven James; Dettmers, Dana Lee; Dakins, Maxine Ellen; Eide, Steven Arvid; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Oswald, Kyle Blaine; Reisenauer, John Phillip

    2002-08-01

    The effects of closure decisions for used nuclear facilities can extend centuries into the future. Yet, the longevity of decisions made over the past half century has been poor. Our goal is an improved decision framework for decommissioning, stewardship, and waste management. This paper describes our overall framework. Companion papers describe the underlying philosophy of the KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions1 and implications for a class of intractable decision problems.2 Where knowledge, values, and resources converge (the K, V, and R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision – a decision that works over time. Our approach clarifies what is needed to make and keep decisions over relevant time periods. The process guides participants through establishing the real problem, understanding the universes of knowledge, values, resources, and generating alternatives. We explore three classes of alternatives – reusable (e.g. greenfield), closed (e.g. entombed structures), and adaptable. After testing for konvergence of alternatives among knowledge, values, resources, we offer suggestions to diagnose divergence, to reduce divergence by refining alternatives to address identified weaknesses, and to plan to keep konvergence over the life of the decision. We believe that decisions made via this method will better stand the test of time – because it will be either acceptable to keep them unchanged or possible to adapt them as knowledge, values, and resources change.

  17. Affective Forecasting: An Unrecognized Challenge in Making Serious Health Decisions

    PubMed Central

    Arnold, Robert M.

    2008-01-01

    Patients facing medical decisions that will impact quality of life make assumptions about how they will adjust emotionally to living with health declines and disability. Despite abundant research on decision-making, we have no direct research on how accurately patients envision their future well-being and how this influences their decisions. Outside medicine, psychological research on “affective forecasting” consistently shows that people poorly predict their future ability to adapt to adversity. This finding is important for medicine, since many serious health decisions hinge on quality-of-life judgments. We describe three specific mechanisms for affective forecasting errors that may influence health decisions: focalism, in which people focus more on what will change than on what will stay the same; immune neglect, in which they fail to envision how their own coping skills will lessen their unhappiness; and failure to predict adaptation, in which people fail to envision shifts in what they value. We discuss emotional and social factors that interact with these cognitive biases. We describe how caregivers can recognize these biases in the clinical setting and suggest interventions to help patients recognize and address affective forecasting errors. PMID:18665428

  18. The Encoding of Decision Difficulty and Movement Time in the Primate Premotor Cortex.

    PubMed

    Martinez-Garcia, Marina; Insabato, Andrea; Pannunzi, Mario; Pardo-Vazquez, Jose L; Acuña, Carlos; Deco, Gustavo

    2015-11-01

    Estimating the difficulty of a decision is a fundamental process to elaborate complex and adaptive behaviour. In this paper, we show that the movement time of behaving monkeys performing a decision-making task is correlated with decision difficulty and that the activity of a population of neurons in ventral Premotor cortex correlates with the movement time. Moreover, we found another population of neurons that encodes the discriminability of the stimulus, thereby supplying another source of information about the difficulty of the decision. The activity of neurons encoding the difficulty can be produced by very different computations. Therefore, we show that decision difficulty can be encoded through three different mechanisms: 1. Switch time coding, 2. rate coding and 3. binary coding. This rich representation reflects the basis of different functional aspects of difficulty in the making of a decision and the possible role of difficulty estimation in complex decision scenarios. PMID:26556807

  19. Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture.

    PubMed

    Vermeulen, Sonja J; Challinor, Andrew J; Thornton, Philip K; Campbell, Bruce M; Eriyagama, Nishadi; Vervoort, Joost M; Kinyangi, James; Jarvis, Andy; Läderach, Peter; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Nicklin, Kathryn J; Hawkins, Ed; Smith, Daniel R

    2013-05-21

    We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop-climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty.

  20. Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture

    PubMed Central

    Vermeulen, Sonja J.; Challinor, Andrew J.; Thornton, Philip K.; Campbell, Bruce M.; Eriyagama, Nishadi; Vervoort, Joost M.; Kinyangi, James; Jarvis, Andy; Läderach, Peter; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Nicklin, Kathryn J.; Hawkins, Ed; Smith, Daniel R.

    2013-01-01

    We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop–climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty. PMID:23674681

  1. Neurophysiology of performance monitoring and adaptive behavior.

    PubMed

    Ullsperger, Markus; Danielmeier, Claudia; Jocham, Gerhard

    2014-01-01

    Successful goal-directed behavior requires not only correct action selection, planning, and execution but also the ability to flexibly adapt behavior when performance problems occur or the environment changes. A prerequisite for determining the necessity, type, and magnitude of adjustments is to continuously monitor the course and outcome of one's actions. Feedback-control loops correcting deviations from intended states constitute a basic functional principle of adaptation at all levels of the nervous system. Here, we review the neurophysiology of evaluating action course and outcome with respect to their valence, i.e., reward and punishment, and initiating short- and long-term adaptations, learning, and decisions. Based on studies in humans and other mammals, we outline the physiological principles of performance monitoring and subsequent cognitive, motivational, autonomic, and behavioral adaptation and link them to the underlying neuroanatomy, neurochemistry, psychological theories, and computational models. We provide an overview of invasive and noninvasive systemic measures, such as electrophysiological, neuroimaging, and lesion data. We describe how a wide network of brain areas encompassing frontal cortices, basal ganglia, thalamus, and monoaminergic brain stem nuclei detects and evaluates deviations of actual from predicted states indicating changed action costs or outcomes. This information is used to learn and update stimulus and action values, guide action selection, and recruit adaptive mechanisms that compensate errors and optimize goal achievement.

  2. Clinical decision support systems.

    PubMed

    Beeler, Patrick Emanuel; Bates, David Westfall; Hug, Balthasar Luzius

    2014-01-01

    Clinical decision support (CDS) systems link patient data with an electronic knowledge base in order to improve decision-making and computerised physician order entry (CPOE) is a requirement to set up electronic CDS. The medical informatics literature suggests categorising CDS tools into medication dosing support, order facilitators, point-of-care alerts and reminders, relevant information display, expert systems and workflow support. To date, CDS has particularly been recognised for improving processes. CDS successfully fostered prevention of deep-vein thrombosis, improved adherence to guidelines, increased the use of vaccinations, and decreased the rate of serious medication errors. However, CDS may introduce errors, and therefore the term "e-iatrogenesis" has been proposed to address unintended consequences. At least two studies reported severe treatment delays due to CPOE and CDS. In addition, the phenomenon of "alert fatigue" - arising from a high number of CDS alerts of low clinical significance - may facilitate overriding of potentially critical notifications. The implementation of CDS needs to be carefully planned, CDS interventions should be thoroughly examined in pilot wards only, and then stepwise introduced. A crucial feature of CPOE in combination with CDS is speed, since time consumption has been found to be a major factor determining failure. In the near future, the specificity of alerts will be improved, notifications will be prioritised and offer detailed advice, customisation of CDS will play an increasing role, and finally, CDS is heading for patient-centred decision support. The most important research question remains whether CDS is able to improve patient outcomes beyond processes.

  3. Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.

    2012-04-01

    An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows

  4. Expectation in perceptual decision making: neural and computational mechanisms.

    PubMed

    Summerfield, Christopher; de Lange, Floris P

    2014-11-01

    Sensory signals are highly structured in both space and time. These structural regularities in visual information allow expectations to form about future stimulation, thereby facilitating decisions about visual features and objects. Here, we discuss how expectation modulates neural signals and behaviour in humans and other primates. We consider how expectations bias visual activity before a stimulus occurs, and how neural signals elicited by expected and unexpected stimuli differ. We discuss how expectations may influence decision signals at the computational level. Finally, we consider the relationship between visual expectation and related concepts, such as attention and adaptation.

  5. Coordinated machine learning and decision support for situation awareness.

    PubMed

    Brannon, N G; Seiffertt, J E; Draelos, T J; Wunsch, D C

    2009-04-01

    Domains such as force protection require an effective decision maker to maintain a high level of situation awareness. A system that combines humans with neural networks is a desirable approach. Furthermore, it is advantageous for the calculation engine to operate in three learning modes: supervised for initial training and known updating, reinforcement for online operational improvement, and unsupervised in the absence of all external signaling. An Adaptive Resonance Theory based architecture capable of seamlessly switching among the three types of learning is discussed that can be used to help optimize the decision making of a human operator in such a scenario. This is followed by a situation assessment module.

  6. Decision making in surgical oncology.

    PubMed

    Lamb, B; Green, J S A; Vincent, C; Sevdalis, N

    2011-09-01

    Decisions in surgical oncology are increasingly being made by multi-disciplinary teams (MDTs). Although MDTs have been widely accepted as the preferred model for cancer service delivery, the process of decision making has not been well described and there is little evidence pointing to the ideal structure of an MDT. Performance in surgery has been shown to depend on non-technical skills, such as decision making, as well as patient factors and the technical skills of the healthcare team. Application of this systems approach to MDT working allows the identification of factors that affect the quality of decision making for cancer patients. In this article we review the literature on decision making in surgical oncology and by drawing from the systems approach to surgical performance we provide a framework for understanding the process of decision making in MDTs. Technical factors that affect decision making include the information about patients, robust ICT and video-conferencing equipment, a minimum dataset with expert review of radiological and pathological information, implementation and recording of the MDTs decision. Non-technical factors with an impact on decision making include attendance of team members at meetings, leadership, teamwork, open discussion, consensus on decisions and communication with patients and primary care. Optimising these factors will strengthen the decision making process and raise the quality of care for cancer patients.

  7. Decision making in surgical oncology.

    PubMed

    Lamb, B; Green, J S A; Vincent, C; Sevdalis, N

    2011-09-01

    Decisions in surgical oncology are increasingly being made by multi-disciplinary teams (MDTs). Although MDTs have been widely accepted as the preferred model for cancer service delivery, the process of decision making has not been well described and there is little evidence pointing to the ideal structure of an MDT. Performance in surgery has been shown to depend on non-technical skills, such as decision making, as well as patient factors and the technical skills of the healthcare team. Application of this systems approach to MDT working allows the identification of factors that affect the quality of decision making for cancer patients. In this article we review the literature on decision making in surgical oncology and by drawing from the systems approach to surgical performance we provide a framework for understanding the process of decision making in MDTs. Technical factors that affect decision making include the information about patients, robust ICT and video-conferencing equipment, a minimum dataset with expert review of radiological and pathological information, implementation and recording of the MDTs decision. Non-technical factors with an impact on decision making include attendance of team members at meetings, leadership, teamwork, open discussion, consensus on decisions and communication with patients and primary care. Optimising these factors will strengthen the decision making process and raise the quality of care for cancer patients. PMID:20719499

  8. The basics of decision analysis.

    PubMed

    Kent, D L

    1992-12-01

    Historically, decision analysis (DA) arose from economics, psychology, and statistics. Medical and dental applications have developed over the past two decades. While decision psychology explores how people make their decisions, the DA process involves construction of a model and development of insights into the strengths and uncertainties about recommendations derived from analysis of model outputs. Uncertainties are represented as probabilities and values are assigned to desirable or adverse outcomes according to preferences expressed by the decision maker. The model unifies probabilities and values by calculation of the expected value for each decision choice. The decision maker can improve his or her insight into uncertainties in the model by conducting sensitivity analyses, and can take action based on this improved insight. The DA process is illustrated using the decision to take or skip influenza vaccination. People's decision making behavior for this problem has also been analyzed using methods from decision psychology. Distinctions between clinical DA and cost-effectiveness analysis are given, as are caveats about especially complicated subtopics in decision analysis for medical problems. In closing, opportunities for further study of decision analysis are presented. PMID:1487581

  9. Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.

    PubMed

    Bojovic, Dragana; Bonzanigo, Laura; Giupponi, Carlo; Maziotis, Alexandros

    2015-07-01

    The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of

  10. Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.

    PubMed

    Bojovic, Dragana; Bonzanigo, Laura; Giupponi, Carlo; Maziotis, Alexandros

    2015-07-01

    The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of

  11. Physiologic adaptation to space - Space adaptation syndrome

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vanderploeg, J. M.

    1985-01-01

    The adaptive changes of the neurovestibular system to microgravity, which result in space motion sickness (SMS), are studied. A list of symptoms, which range from vomiting to drowsiness, is provided. The two patterns of symptom development, rapid and gradual, and the duration of the symptoms are described. The concept of sensory conflict and rearrangements to explain SMS is being investigated.

  12. Consultant choice across decision contexts: are abortion decisions different?

    PubMed

    Finken, L L; Jacobs, J E

    1996-04-01

    A survey conducted among college students in the midwestern US indicated that abortion decision-making consultation patterns differ substantially from those associated with other types of decisions. Surveyed were 169 predominantly White, middle-income students (68 males and 101 females) 18-20 years of age recruited from an introductory psychology class. Participants were presented with vignettes that pertained to four types of decisions: abortion (unplanned pregnancy), medical (cancer treatment type), future (career move), and interpersonal (crisis with a friend). For each decision, students were asked who they would consult (specific family members, significant others, friends, various professionals) and the order in which they would consult them. The mean number of consultants selected was 3.72 for abortion, 5.54 for medical, 4.90 for future-oriented, and 2.41 for interpersonal decisions. Significant others were selected most often for all decision scenarios; however, the highest frequency of consultation and lowest mean rank order for the significant other was on the abortion decision. The next most important consultant for abortion decisions was friends, then family members, and, finally, professionals. The only gender difference was a greater tendency for females to consult their mothers. For every category of consultant (except best friend), the pattern differed depending on the type of decision. These findings underscore the importance of considering context and multifaceted approaches in the design of programs aimed at enhancing adolescents' decision-making skills. PMID:12347375

  13. Adaptation Strategies for Global Environmental Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ojima, D. S.; Corell, R.

    2007-12-01

    The global environmental challenges society faces today are unheralded due to the pace at which human activities are affecting the earth system. The rates of energy consumption, nitrogen use and production, and water use increases each year leading to greater global environmental changes affecting warming of the earth system and loss of ecosystem services. The challenge we face today as a society is the manner and speed at which we can adapt to these changes affecting the ecosystem services we depend upon. Innovative strategies are needed to develop the adaptive management tools to integrate the sectors and science necessary to deal with the complexity of effects. Developing strategies to better guide decision making related to climate change trends into changing weather patterns at meaningful temporal and spatial scales are needed, observations and prognostic analyses of climate related triggers of threshold events in ecosystem dynamics, and transfer of knowledge between science, technology, and decision makers. These strategies need to better integrate science (physical, biological, and social knowledge), engineering, policy, and economics interests to create a framework to develop strategies for adaptation and mitigation to global change and to create bridges with institutions and organizations that deal with these issues as a governmental agency or private sector enterprise.

  14. Novice High School Science Teachers: Lesson Plan Adaptations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scharon, Aracelis Janelle

    2013-01-01

    The Next Generation Science Standards (NRC, 2013) positions teachers as responsible for necessary decision making about how their intended science lesson plan content supports continuous student science learning. Teachers interact with their instructional lesson plans in dynamic and constructive ways. Adapting lesson plans is complex. This process…

  15. Adaptive grazing management experiment: The new frontier of grazing management

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Adaptive Grazing Management experiment at the USDA-ARS Central Plains Experimental Range addresses important gaps in our current understanding of grazing management including: 1) lack of management-science partnerships to more fully understand the effect of management decisions, 2) need for mana...

  16. Computer Adaptive Testing for Small Scale Programs and Instructional Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rudner, Lawrence M.; Guo, Fanmin

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates measurement decision theory (MDT) as an underlying model for computer adaptive testing when the goal is to classify examinees into one of a finite number of groups. The first analysis compares MDT with a popular item response theory model and finds little difference in terms of the percentage of correct classifications. The…

  17. Coherent optical adaptive techniques.

    PubMed

    Bridges, W B; Brunner, P T; Lazzara, S P; Nussmeier, T A; O'Meara, T R; Sanguinet, J A; Brown, W P

    1974-02-01

    The theory of multidither adaptive optical radar phased arrays is briefly reviewed as an introduction to the experimental results obtained with seven-element linear and three-element triangular array systems operating at 0.6328 microm. Atmospheric turbulence compensation and adaptive tracking capabilities are demonstrated.

  18. Research, Adaptation, & Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morris, Lee A., Ed.; And Others

    Research adaptation is an endeavor that implies solid collaboration among school practitioners and university and college researchers. This volume addresses the broad issues of research as an educational endeavor, adaptation as a necessary function associated with applying research findings to school situations, and change as an inevitable…

  19. Uncertainty in adaptive capacity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adger, W. Neil; Vincent, Katharine

    2005-03-01

    The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. To cite this article: W.N. Adger, K. Vincent, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).

  20. [Postvagotomy adaptation syndrome].

    PubMed

    Shapovalov, V A

    1998-01-01

    It was established in experiment, that the changes of the natural resistance of organism indexes and of the peritoneal cavity cytology has compensatory-adaptational character while the denervation-adaptational syndrome occurrence and progress, which may be assessed as eustress. Vagotomy and operative trauma cause qualitatively different reactions of an organism.

  1. Adaptive Sampling Proxy Application

    2012-10-22

    ASPA is an implementation of an adaptive sampling algorithm [1-3], which is used to reduce the computational expense of computer simulations that couple disparate physical scales. The purpose of ASPA is to encapsulate the algorithms required for adaptive sampling independently from any specific application, so that alternative algorithms and programming models for exascale computers can be investigated more easily.

  2. Retinal Imaging: Adaptive Optics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goncharov, A. S.; Iroshnikov, N. G.; Larichev, Andrey V.

    This chapter describes several factors influencing the performance of ophthalmic diagnostic systems with adaptive optics compensation of human eye aberration. Particular attention is paid to speckle modulation, temporal behavior of aberrations, and anisoplanatic effects. The implementation of a fundus camera with adaptive optics is considered.

  3. To Act or Not to Act: Endocannabinoid/Dopamine Interactions in Decision-Making

    PubMed Central

    Hernandez, Giovanni; Cheer, Joseph F.

    2015-01-01

    Decision-making is an ethologically adaptive construct that is impaired in multiple psychiatric disorders. Activity within the mesocorticolimbic dopamine system has been traditionally associated with decision-making. The endocannabinoid system through its actions on inhibitory and excitatory synapses modulates dopamine activity and decision-making. The aim of this brief review is to present a synopsis of available data obtained when the endocannabinoid system is manipulated and dopamine activity recorded. To this end, we review research using different behavioral paradigms to provide further insight into how this ubiquitous signaling system biases dopamine-related behaviors to regulate decision-making. PMID:26733830

  4. A Minimax Sequential Procedure in the Context of Computerized Adaptive Mastery Testing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vos, Hans J.

    The purpose of this paper is to derive optimal rules for variable-length mastery tests in case three mastery classification decisions (nonmastery, partial mastery, and mastery) are distinguished. In a variable-length or adaptive mastery test, the decision is to classify a subject as a master, a partial master, a nonmaster, or continuing sampling…

  5. Emphasizing nonword decisions in word-decision performance.

    PubMed

    Piercey, C Darren

    2008-08-01

    A robust finding in the lexical decision literature is that decisions to words are made more quickly and accurately than decisions to nonwords. When instructions are presented to participants prior to an experiment, an emphasis is usually placed on identifying words. This study assessed whether instructing participants to emphasize nonword decisions would affect the performance of the speed and accuracy of identification. A total of 98 individuals took part, 49 in a Word Instruction condition and 49 in a Nonword Instruction condition. Analysis indicated changes in emphasis on words versus nonwords decreased the difference in mean reaction time between word and nonword decisions. An interesting finding is that the manipulation of instructions affected reaction times to words but not to nonwords. The analysis of accuracy yielded no significant comparisons. Further research is required to assess the importance of the finding that the manipulation of instructions affects only word decisions. PMID:18982942

  6. [Neural mechanisms of decision making].

    PubMed

    Funahashi, Shintaro

    2008-09-01

    Decision-making plays an important role in the transformation of incoming sensory information to purposeful actions. Many decisions have important biological and social consequences, while others may have a more limited impact on our everyday life. The neural mechanisms of decision-making currently constitute an important subject under intense investigation in the field of cognitive and behavioral neuroscience. Among the investigations, on this topic, those involving sensory discrimination tasks using visual motion have provided a wealth of information about the nature of the neural circuitry required to perform perceptual decision-making. For example, by using a motion discrimination task, Shadlen and Newsome have shown an essential role of area LIP in perceptual decision-making. On the other hand, the importance of reward and reward expectations as determinants of decision-making is increasingly appreciated. In particular, reinforcement learning and economic theories, such as game theory, have provided valuable insights into the brain functions related to decision-making. By using a competitive game analogous to matching pennies against a computer, Lee's group showed that in monkeys, previous selections modulated prefrontal neural activity and that this modulation affected the current choice behavior. The prefrontal cortex has been shown to participate in decision-making in free-choice conditions. By using a task involving the free choice of 1 target from multiple saccade targets, Funahashi's group examined the prefrontal participation in decision-making in a free-choice condition. They compared the activities of prefrontal neurons during an oculomotor delay task with forced-choice conditions and free-choice conditions and identified the neural components reflecting the underlying decision-making processes. Although several attempts have been made to understand the neural mechanisms of decision-making, further investigations are required to fully understand these

  7. Decision exploration lab: a visual analytics solution for decision management.

    PubMed

    Broeksema, Bertjan; Baudel, Thomas; Telea, Arthur G; Crisafulli, Paolo

    2013-12-01

    We present a visual analytics solution designed to address prevalent issues in the area of Operational Decision Management (ODM). In ODM, which has its roots in Artificial Intelligence (Expert Systems) and Management Science, it is increasingly important to align business decisions with business goals. In our work, we consider decision models (executable models of the business domain) as ontologies that describe the business domain, and production rules that describe the business logic of decisions to be made over this ontology. Executing a decision model produces an accumulation of decisions made over time for individual cases. We are interested, first, to get insight in the decision logic and the accumulated facts by themselves. Secondly and more importantly, we want to see how the accumulated facts reveal potential divergences between the reality as captured by the decision model, and the reality as captured by the executed decisions. We illustrate the motivation, added value for visual analytics, and our proposed solution and tooling through a business case from the car insurance industry.

  8. Latent effects decision analysis

    DOEpatents

    Cooper, J. Arlin; Werner, Paul W.

    2004-08-24

    Latent effects on a system are broken down into components ranging from those far removed in time from the system under study (latent) to those which closely effect changes in the system. Each component is provided with weighted inputs either by a user or from outputs of other components. A non-linear mathematical process known as `soft aggregation` is performed on the inputs to each component to provide information relating to the component. This information is combined in decreasing order of latency to the system to provide a quantifiable measure of an attribute of a system (e.g., safety) or to test hypotheses (e.g., for forensic deduction or decisions about various system design options).

  9. Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change

    PubMed Central

    Nicol, Sam; Fuller, Richard A.; Iwamura, Takuya; Chadès, Iadine

    2015-01-01

    Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this is the fear of making the wrong decisions caused by the myriad future scenarios presented to decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method for optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple future scenarios and continually learns the best management strategy from observations, even as conditions change. We demonstrate the performance of our AM approach by applying it to the spatial management of migratory shorebird habitats on the East Asian–Australasian flyway, predicted to be severely impacted by future sea-level rise. By accounting for non-stationary dynamics, our solution protects 25 000 more birds per year than the current best stationary approach. Our approach can be applied to many ecological systems that require efficient adaptation strategies for an uncertain future. PMID:25972463

  10. 75 FR 439 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group (AMWG)

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-01-05

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group (AMWG) AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (AMP) was implemented as a result of the Record of Decision on the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam...

  11. 75 FR 44809 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group (AMWG)

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-07-29

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group (AMWG) AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (AMP) was implemented as a result of the Record of Decision on the Operation of Glen Canyon Dam...

  12. Addressing the limits to adaptation across four damage--response systems

    EPA Science Inventory

    Our ability to adapt to climate change is not boundless, and previous modeling shows that capacity limited adaptation will play a policy-significant role in future decisions about climate change. These limits are delineated by capacity thresholds, after which climate damages beg...

  13. Deriving empirical benchmarks from existing monitoring datasets for rangeland adaptive management

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Under adaptive management, goals and decisions for managing rangeland resources are shaped by requirements like the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM’s) Land Health Standards, which specify desired conditions. Without formalized, quantitative benchmarks for triggering management actions, adaptive man...

  14. Polytomous Adaptive Classification Testing: Effects of Item Pool Size, Test Termination Criterion, and Number of Cutscores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gnambs, Timo; Batinic, Bernad

    2011-01-01

    Computer-adaptive classification tests focus on classifying respondents in different proficiency groups (e.g., for pass/fail decisions). To date, adaptive classification testing has been dominated by research on dichotomous response formats and classifications in two groups. This article extends this line of research to polytomous classification…

  15. Decision-making without a brain: how an amoeboid organism solves the two-armed bandit.

    PubMed

    Reid, Chris R; MacDonald, Hannelore; Mann, Richard P; Marshall, James A R; Latty, Tanya; Garnier, Simon

    2016-06-01

    Several recent studies hint at shared patterns in decision-making between taxonomically distant organisms, yet few studies demonstrate and dissect mechanisms of decision-making in simpler organisms. We examine decision-making in the unicellular slime mould Physarum polycephalum using a classical decision problem adapted from human and animal decision-making studies: the two-armed bandit problem. This problem has previously only been used to study organisms with brains, yet here we demonstrate that a brainless unicellular organism compares the relative qualities of multiple options, integrates over repeated samplings to perform well in random environments, and combines information on reward frequency and magnitude in order to make correct and adaptive decisions. We extend our inquiry by using Bayesian model selection to determine the most likely algorithm used by the cell when making decisions. We deduce that this algorithm centres around a tendency to exploit environments in proportion to their reward experienced through past sampling. The algorithm is intermediate in computational complexity between simple, reactionary heuristics and calculation-intensive optimal performance algorithms, yet it has very good relative performance. Our study provides insight into ancestral mechanisms of decision-making and suggests that fundamental principles of decision-making, information processing and even cognition are shared among diverse biological systems. PMID:27278359

  16. Decision-making without a brain: how an amoeboid organism solves the two-armed bandit.

    PubMed

    Reid, Chris R; MacDonald, Hannelore; Mann, Richard P; Marshall, James A R; Latty, Tanya; Garnier, Simon

    2016-06-01

    Several recent studies hint at shared patterns in decision-making between taxonomically distant organisms, yet few studies demonstrate and dissect mechanisms of decision-making in simpler organisms. We examine decision-making in the unicellular slime mould Physarum polycephalum using a classical decision problem adapted from human and animal decision-making studies: the two-armed bandit problem. This problem has previously only been used to study organisms with brains, yet here we demonstrate that a brainless unicellular organism compares the relative qualities of multiple options, integrates over repeated samplings to perform well in random environments, and combines information on reward frequency and magnitude in order to make correct and adaptive decisions. We extend our inquiry by using Bayesian model selection to determine the most likely algorithm used by the cell when making decisions. We deduce that this algorithm centres around a tendency to exploit environments in proportion to their reward experienced through past sampling. The algorithm is intermediate in computational complexity between simple, reactionary heuristics and calculation-intensive optimal performance algorithms, yet it has very good relative performance. Our study provides insight into ancestral mechanisms of decision-making and suggests that fundamental principles of decision-making, information processing and even cognition are shared among diverse biological systems.

  17. Live and let die: existential decision processes in a fatal disease.

    PubMed

    Lulé, Dorothée; Nonnenmacher, Sonja; Sorg, Sonja; Heimrath, Johanna; Hautzinger, Martin; Meyer, Thomas; Kübler, Andrea; Birbaumer, Niels; Ludolph, Albert C

    2014-03-01

    Decisions and determinants of decisions to prolong or shorten life in the course of fatal diseases like ALS are poorly understood. Decisions and desire for hastened death of N = 93 ALS patients were investigated in a prospective longitudinal approach three times in the course of 1 year. Determinants of decisions were evaluated: quality of life (QoL), depression, feeling of being a burden, physical function, social support and cognitive status. More than half of patients had a positive attitude towards life-sustaining treatments and they had a low desire for hastened death. Of those with undecided or negative attitude, 10 % changed attitudes towards life-sustaining treatments in the course of 1 year. Patients' desire to hasten death was low and decreased significantly within 1 year despite physical function decline. Those with a high desire for hastened death decided against invasive therapeutic treatments. QoL, depression and social support were not predictors for vital decisions and remained stable. Feeling of being a burden was a predictor for decisions against life-supporting treatments. Throughout physical function loss, decisions to prolong life are flexibly adapted while desire to shorten life declines. QoL was stable and not a predictor for vital decisions, even though anticipated low QoL has been reported to be the reason to request euthanasia. In contrast, feeling of being a burden in decision making needs more attention in clinical counselling. Considering a patient's possible adaptation processes in the course of a fatal disease is necessary.

  18. Decision-making without a brain: how an amoeboid organism solves the two-armed bandit

    PubMed Central

    Reid, Chris R.; MacDonald, Hannelore; Mann, Richard P.; Marshall, James A. R.; Latty, Tanya

    2016-01-01

    Several recent studies hint at shared patterns in decision-making between taxonomically distant organisms, yet few studies demonstrate and dissect mechanisms of decision-making in simpler organisms. We examine decision-making in the unicellular slime mould Physarum polycephalum using a classical decision problem adapted from human and animal decision-making studies: the two-armed bandit problem. This problem has previously only been used to study organisms with brains, yet here we demonstrate that a brainless unicellular organism compares the relative qualities of multiple options, integrates over repeated samplings to perform well in random environments, and combines information on reward frequency and magnitude in order to make correct and adaptive decisions. We extend our inquiry by using Bayesian model selection to determine the most likely algorithm used by the cell when making decisions. We deduce that this algorithm centres around a tendency to exploit environments in proportion to their reward experienced through past sampling. The algorithm is intermediate in computational complexity between simple, reactionary heuristics and calculation-intensive optimal performance algorithms, yet it has very good relative performance. Our study provides insight into ancestral mechanisms of decision-making and suggests that fundamental principles of decision-making, information processing and even cognition are shared among diverse biological systems. PMID:27278359

  19. Ecological rationality: a framework for understanding and aiding the aging decision maker.

    PubMed

    Mata, Rui; Pachur, Thorsten; von Helversen, Bettina; Hertwig, Ralph; Rieskamp, Jörg; Schooler, Lael

    2012-01-01

    The notion of ecological rationality sees human rationality as the result of the adaptive fit between the human mind and the environment. Ecological rationality focuses the study of decision making on two key questions: First, what are the environmental regularities to which people's decision strategies are matched, and how frequently do these regularities occur in natural environments? Second, how well can people adapt their use of specific strategies to particular environmental regularities? Research on aging suggests a number of changes in cognitive function, for instance, deficits in learning and memory that may impact decision-making skills. However, it has been shown that simple strategies can work well in many natural environments, which suggests that age-related deficits in strategy use may not necessarily translate into reduced decision quality. Consequently, we argue that predictions about the impact of aging on decision performance depend not only on how aging affects decision-relevant capacities but also on the decision environment in which decisions are made. In sum, we propose that the concept of the ecological rationality is crucial to understanding and aiding the aging decision maker.

  20. An adaptive lidar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oshlakov, V. G.; Andreev, M. I.; Malykh, D. D.

    2009-09-01

    Using the polarization characteristics of a target and its underlying surface one can change the target contrast range. As the target one can use the compact and discrete structures with different characteristics to reflect electromagnetic waves. An important problem, solved by the adaptive polarization lidar, is to determine the availability and identification of different targets based on their polarization characteristics against the background of underlying surface, which polarization characteristics are unknown. Another important problem of the adaptive polarization lidar is a search for the objects, which polarization characteristics are unknown, against the background of underlying surface, which polarization characteristics are known. The adaptive polarization lidar makes it possible to determine the presence of impurities in sea water. The characteristics of the adaptive polarization lidar undergo variations, i.e., polarization characteristics of a sensing signal and polarization characteristics of the receiver are varied depending on the problem to be solved. One of the versions of construction of the adaptive polarization lidar is considered. The increase of the contrast in the adaptive lidar has been demonstrated by the numerical experiment when sensing hydrosols on the background of the Rayleigh scattering, caused by clear water. The numerical experiment has also demonstrated the increase of the contrast in the adaptive lidar when sensing at two wavelengths of dry haze and dense haze on the background of the Rayleigh scattering, caused by the clear atmosphere. The most effective wavelength was chosen.

  1. Decision making: the neuroethological turn

    PubMed Central

    Pearson, John M.; Watson, Karli K.; Platt, Michael L.

    2014-01-01

    Neuroeconomics applies models from economics and psychology to inform neurobiological studies of choice. This approach has revealed neural signatures of concepts like value, risk, and ambiguity, which are known to influence decision-making. Such observations have led theorists to hypothesize a single, unified decision process that mediates choice behavior via a common neural currency for outcomes like food, money, or social praise. In parallel, recent neuroethological studies of decision-making have focused on natural behaviors like foraging, mate choice, and social interactions. These decisions strongly impact evolutionary fitness and thus are likely to have played a key role in shaping the neural circuits that mediate decision-making. This approach has revealed a suite of computational motifs that appear to be shared across a wide variety of organisms. We argue that the existence of deep homologies in the neural circuits mediating choice may have profound implications for understanding human decision-making in health and disease. PMID:24908481

  2. Decision making: the neuroethological turn.

    PubMed

    Pearson, John M; Watson, Karli K; Platt, Michael L

    2014-06-01

    Neuroeconomics applies models from economics and psychology to inform neurobiological studies of choice. This approach has revealed neural signatures of concepts like value, risk, and ambiguity, which are known to influence decision making. Such observations have led theorists to hypothesize a single, unified decision process that mediates choice behavior via a common neural currency for outcomes like food, money, or social praise. In parallel, recent neuroethological studies of decision making have focused on natural behaviors like foraging, mate choice, and social interactions. These decisions strongly impact evolutionary fitness and thus are likely to have played a key role in shaping the neural circuits that mediate decision making. This approach has revealed a suite of computational motifs that appear to be shared across a wide variety of organisms. We argue that the existence of deep homologies in the neural circuits mediating choice may have profound implications for understanding human decision making in health and disease. PMID:24908481

  3. Ten Challenges for Decision Neuroscience

    PubMed Central

    Huettel, Scott A.

    2010-01-01

    Decision neuroscience research, as currently practiced, employs the methods of neuroscience to investigate concepts drawn from the social sciences. A typical study selects one or more variables from psychological or economic models, manipulates or measures choices within a simplified choice task, and then identifies neural correlates. Using this “neuroeconomic” approach, researchers have described brain systems whose functioning shapes key economic variables, most notably aspects of subjective value. Yet, the standard approach has fundamental limitations. Important aspects of the mechanisms of decision making – from the sources of variability in decision making to the very computations supported by decision-related regions – remain incompletely understood. Here, I outline 10 outstanding challenges for future research in decision neuroscience. While some will be readily addressed using current methods, others will require new conceptual frameworks. Accordingly, a new strain of decision neuroscience will marry methods from economics and cognitive science to concepts from neurobiology and cognitive neuroscience. PMID:20922059

  4. Modular analytics management architecture for interoperability and decision support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marotta, Stephen; Metzger, Max; Gorman, Joe; Sliva, Amy

    2016-05-01

    The Dual Node Decision Wheels (DNDW) architecture is a new approach to information fusion and decision support systems. By combining cognitive systems engineering organizational analysis tools, such as decision trees, with the Dual Node Network (DNN) technical architecture for information fusion, the DNDW can align relevant data and information products with an organization's decision-making processes. In this paper, we present the Compositional Inference and Machine Learning Environment (CIMLE), a prototype framework based on the principles of the DNDW architecture. CIMLE provides a flexible environment so heterogeneous data sources, messaging frameworks, and analytic processes can interoperate to provide the specific information required for situation understanding and decision making. It was designed to support the creation of modular, distributed solutions over large monolithic systems. With CIMLE, users can repurpose individual analytics to address evolving decision-making requirements or to adapt to new mission contexts; CIMLE's modular design simplifies integration with new host operating environments. CIMLE's configurable system design enables model developers to build analytical systems that closely align with organizational structures and processes and support the organization's information needs.

  5. An environmental decision framework applied to marine engine control technologies.

    PubMed

    Corbett, James J; Chapman, David

    2006-06-01

    This paper develops a decision framework for considering emission control technologies on marine engines, informed by standard decision theory, with an open structure that may be adapted by operators with specific vessel and technology attributes different from those provided here. Attributes relate objectives important to choosing control technologies with specific alternatives that may meet several of the objectives differently. The transparent framework enables multiple stakeholders to understand how different subjective judgments and varying attribute properties may result in different technology choices. Standard scoring techniques ensure that attributes are not biased by subjective scoring and that weights are the primary quantitative input where subjective preferences are exercised. An expected value decision structure is adopted that considers probabilities (likelihood) that a given alternative can meet its claims; alternative decision criteria are discussed. Capital and annual costs are combined using a net present value approach. An iterative approach is advocated that allows for screening and disqualifying alternatives that do not meet minimum conditions for acceptance, such as engine warranty or U.S. Coast Guard requirements. This decision framework assists vessel operators in considering explicitly important attributes and in representing choices clearly to other stakeholders concerned about reducing air pollution from vessels. This general decision structure may also be applied similarly to other environmental controls in marine applications.

  6. Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Kenrick, Douglas T.; Griskevicius, Vladas; Sundie, Jill M.; Li, Norman P.; Li, Yexin Jessica; Neuberg, Steven L.

    2009-01-01

    What is a “rational” decision? Economists traditionally viewed rationality as maximizing expected satisfaction. This view has been useful in modeling basic microeconomic concepts, but falls short in accounting for many everyday human decisions. It leaves unanswered why some things reliably make people more satisfied than others, and why people frequently act to make others happy at a cost to themselves. Drawing on an evolutionary perspective, we propose that people make decisions according to a set of principles that may not appear to make sense at the superficial level, but that demonstrate rationality at a deeper evolutionary level. By this, we mean that people use adaptive domain-specific decision-rules that, on average, would have resulted in fitness benefits. Using this framework, we re-examine several economic principles. We suggest that traditional psychological functions governing risk aversion, discounting of future benefits, and budget allocations to multiple goods, for example, vary in predictable ways as a function of the underlying motive of the decision-maker and individual differences linked to evolved life-history strategies. A deep rationality framework not only helps explain why people make the decisions they do, but also inspires multiple directions for future research. PMID:20686634

  7. [Adaptive optics for ophthalmology].

    PubMed

    Saleh, M

    2016-04-01

    Adaptive optics is a technology enhancing the visual performance of an optical system by correcting its optical aberrations. Adaptive optics have already enabled several breakthroughs in the field of visual sciences, such as improvement of visual acuity in normal and diseased eyes beyond physiologic limits, and the correction of presbyopia. Adaptive optics technology also provides high-resolution, in vivo imaging of the retina that may eventually help to detect the onset of retinal conditions at an early stage and provide better assessment of treatment efficacy.

  8. Adaptive network countermeasures.

    SciTech Connect

    McClelland-Bane, Randy; Van Randwyk, Jamie A.; Carathimas, Anthony G.; Thomas, Eric D.

    2003-10-01

    This report describes the results of a two-year LDRD funded by the Differentiating Technologies investment area. The project investigated the use of countermeasures in protecting computer networks as well as how current countermeasures could be changed in order to adapt with both evolving networks and evolving attackers. The work involved collaboration between Sandia employees and students in the Sandia - California Center for Cyber Defenders (CCD) program. We include an explanation of the need for adaptive countermeasures, a description of the architecture we designed to provide adaptive countermeasures, and evaluations of the system.

  9. Adaptive Strategies in the Iterated Exchange Problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baraov, Arthur

    2011-03-01

    We argue for clear separation of the exchange problem from the exchange paradox to avoid confusion about the subject matter of these two distinct problems. The exchange problem in its current format belongs to the domain of optimal decision making—it doesn't make any sense as a game of competition. But it takes just a tiny modification in the statement of the problem to breathe new life into it and make it a practicable and meaningful game of competition. In this paper, we offer an explanation for paradoxical priors and discuss adaptive strategies for both the house and the player in the restated exchange problem.

  10. Diversity and Adaptation in Large Population Games

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, K. Y. Michael; Lim, S. W.; Luo, Peixun

    We consider a version of large population games whose players compete for resources using strategies with adaptable preferences. The system efficiency is measured by the variance of the decisions. In the regime where the system can be plagued by the maladaptive behavior of the players, we find that diversity among the players improves the system efficiency, though it slows the convergence to the steady state. Diversity causes a mild spread of resources at the transient state, but reduces the uneven distribution of resources in the steady state.

  11. Lessons and challenges from adaptation pathways planning applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haasnoot, M.; Lawrence, J.; Kwakkel, J. H.; Walker, W.; Timmermans, J.; Bloemen, P.; Thissen, W.

    2015-12-01

    Planning for adaptation to dynamic risks (e.g., because of climate change) is a critical need. The concept of 'adaptive policies' is receiving increasing attention as a way of performing strategic planning that is able to address many of the inherent challenges of uncertainty and dynamic change. Several approaches for developing adaptive policies are available in the literature. One approach, for which several applications already exist, is Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP). Pathway maps enable policy analysts, decision makers, and stakeholders to recognize potential 'locked-in' situations and to assess the flexibility, robustness, and efficacy of decision alternatives. Most of the applications of DAPP have been in deltas, coastal cities, or floodplains, often within the context of climate change adaptation. In this talk, we describe the DAPP approach and present a framework for designing signposts as adaptation signals, together with an illustrative application for the Rhine River in the Netherlands. We also draw lessons and challenges from pathways applications that differ in environment, culture, and institutional context. For example, the Dutch Delta Programme has used pathways to identify short-term decisions and long-term policy options. In Bangladesh, an application is in its early phase. Steps before generating pathways - such as long- term thinking in multiple possible futures and acknowledging uncertainties - are already a big challenge there. In New Zealand, the 'Sustainable Delta Game' has been used as the catalyst for pathways thinking by two local councils. This has led to its application in decision making for coastal and flood risk management and economic analysis of policy options.

  12. Neural antecedents of financial decisions.

    PubMed

    Knutson, Brian; Bossaerts, Peter

    2007-08-01

    To explain investing decisions, financial theorists invoke two opposing metrics: expected reward and risk. Recent advances in the spatial and temporal resolution of brain imaging techniques enable investigators to visualize changes in neural activation before financial decisions. Research using these methods indicates that although the ventral striatum plays a role in representation of expected reward, the insula may play a more prominent role in the representation of expected risk. Accumulating evidence also suggests that antecedent neural activation in these regions can be used to predict upcoming financial decisions. These findings have implications for predicting choices and for building a physiologically constrained theory of decision-making.

  13. Decision Making in the Airplane

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that

  14. Aging and consumer decision making

    PubMed Central

    Carpenter, Stephanie M.; Yoon, Carolyn

    2013-01-01

    Research on consumer decision making and aging is especially important for fostering a better understanding of ways to maintain consumer satisfaction and high decision quality across the life span. We provide a review of extant research on the effects of normal aging on cognition and decision processes and how these age-related processes are influenced by task environment, meaningfulness of the task, and consumer expertise. We consider how research centered on these topics generates insights about changes in consumption decisions that occur with aging and identify a number of gaps and directions for future research. PMID:22360794

  15. Structured decision making: Chapter 5

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, Michael C.; Grand, James B.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Krausman, Paul R.; Cain, James W. III

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife management is a decision-focused discipline. It needs to integrate traditional wildlife science and social science to identify actions that are most likely to achieve the array of desires society has surrounding wildlife populations. Decision science, a vast field with roots in economics, operations research, and psychology, offers a rich set of tools to help wildlife managers frame, decompose, analyze, and synthesize their decisions. The nature of wildlife management as a decision science has been recognized since the inception of the field, but formal methods of decision analysis have been underused. There is tremendous potential for wildlife management to grow further through the use of formal decision analysis. First, the wildlife science and human dimensions of wildlife disciplines can be readily integrated. Second, decisions can become more efficient. Third, decisions makers can communicate more clearly with stakeholders and the public. Fourth, good, intuitive wildlife managers, by explicitly examining how they make decisions, can translate their art into a science that is readily used by the next generation.

  16. Perceptual learning in sensorimotor adaptation.

    PubMed

    Darainy, Mohammad; Vahdat, Shahabeddin; Ostry, David J

    2013-11-01

    Motor learning often involves situations in which the somatosensory targets of movement are, at least initially, poorly defined, as for example, in learning to speak or learning the feel of a proper tennis serve. Under these conditions, motor skill acquisition presumably requires perceptual as well as motor learning. That is, it engages both the progressive shaping of sensory targets and associated changes in motor performance. In the present study, we test the idea that perceptual learning alters somatosensory function and in so doing produces changes to human motor performance and sensorimotor adaptation. Subjects in these experiments undergo perceptual training in which a robotic device passively moves the subject's arm on one of a set of fan-shaped trajectories. Subjects are required to indicate whether the robot moved the limb to the right or the left and feedback is provided. Over the course of training both the perceptual boundary and acuity are altered. The perceptual learning is observed to improve both the rate and extent of learning in a subsequent sensorimotor adaptation task and the benefits persist for at least 24 h. The improvement in the present studies varies systematically with changes in perceptual acuity and is obtained regardless of whether the perceptual boundary shift serves to systematically increase or decrease error on subsequent movements. The beneficial effects of perceptual training are found to be substantially dependent on reinforced decision-making in the sensory domain. Passive-movement training on its own is less able to alter subsequent learning in the motor system. Overall, this study suggests perceptual learning plays an integral role in motor learning.

  17. Decisions, Decisions: The Countless Times Instructional Practice and Reality Meet

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miranda, Martina L.

    2014-01-01

    This article examines critical issues related to teacher decision-making in early childhood music classrooms. Through the story of one teacher's experience, we take a closer look at specific criteria to guide decision-making, and strategies to deepen awareness of young children's needs in the music classroom and guide instructional…

  18. 45 CFR 672.13 - Accelerated decision; decision to dismiss.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... Section 672.13 Public Welfare Regulations Relating to Public Welfare (Continued) NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION ENFORCEMENT AND HEARING PROCEDURES § 672.13 Accelerated decision; decision to dismiss. (a) General... genuine issue of material fact exists and a party is entitled to judgment as a matter of law regarding...

  19. Collective animal decisions: preference conflict and decision accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Conradt, Larissa

    2013-01-01

    Social animals frequently share decisions that involve uncertainty and conflict. It has been suggested that conflict can enhance decision accuracy. In order to judge the practical relevance of such a suggestion, it is necessary to explore how general such findings are. Using a model, I examine whether conflicts between animals in a group with respect to preferences for avoiding false positives versus avoiding false negatives could, in principle, enhance the accuracy of collective decisions. I found that decision accuracy nearly always peaked when there was maximum conflict in groups in which individuals had different preferences. However, groups with no preferences were usually even more accurate. Furthermore, a relatively slight skew towards more animals with a preference for avoiding false negatives decreased the rate of expected false negatives versus false positives considerably (and vice versa), while resulting in only a small loss of decision accuracy. I conclude that in ecological situations in which decision accuracy is crucial for fitness and survival, animals cannot ‘afford’ preferences with respect to avoiding false positives versus false negatives. When decision accuracy is less crucial, animals might have such preferences. A slight skew in the number of animals with different preferences will result in the group avoiding that type of error more that the majority of group members prefers to avoid. The model also indicated that knowing the average success rate (‘base rate’) of a decision option can be very misleading, and that animals should ignore such base rates unless further information is available. PMID:24516716

  20. Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making

    PubMed Central

    Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P.

    2015-01-01

    A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a functional localizer to identify the neural signature that reflects sensory-specific processes, and subsequently traced this signature while subjects were engaged in a perceptual decision making task. Our results revealed a temporal dissociation in which sensory processing was limited to an early time window and consistent with occipital areas, whereas decision-related processing became increasingly pronounced over time, and involved parietal and frontal areas. We found that the sensory processing accurately reflected the physical stimulus, irrespective of the eventual decision. Moreover, the sensory representation was stable and maintained over time when it was required for a subsequent decision, but unstable and variable over time when it was task-irrelevant. In contrast, decision-related activity displayed long-lasting sustained components. Together, our approach dissects neuro-anatomically and functionally distinct contributions to perceptual decisions. PMID:26666393

  1. On optimal decision-making in brains and social insect colonies.

    PubMed

    Marshall, James A R; Bogacz, Rafal; Dornhaus, Anna; Planqué, Robert; Kovacs, Tim; Franks, Nigel R

    2009-11-01

    The problem of how to compromise between speed and accuracy in decision-making faces organisms at many levels of biological complexity. Striking parallels are evident between decision-making in primate brains and collective decision-making in social insect colonies: in both systems, separate populations accumulate evidence for alternative choices; when one population reaches a threshold, a decision is made for the corresponding alternative, and this threshold may be varied to compromise between the speed and the accuracy of decision-making. In primate decision-making, simple models of these processes have been shown, under certain parametrizations, to implement the statistically optimal procedure that minimizes decision time for any given error rate. In this paper, we adapt these same analysis techniques and apply them to new models of collective decision-making in social insect colonies. We show that social insect colonies may also be able to achieve statistically optimal collective decision-making in a very similar way to primate brains, via direct competition between evidence-accumulating populations. This optimality result makes testable predictions for how collective decision-making in social insects should be organized. Our approach also represents the first attempt to identify a common theoretical framework for the study of decision-making in diverse biological systems.

  2. Evolution of a vertebrate social decision-making network.

    PubMed

    O'Connell, Lauren A; Hofmann, Hans A

    2012-06-01

    Animals evaluate and respond to their social environment with adaptive decisions. Revealing the neural mechanisms of such decisions is a major goal in biology. We analyzed expression profiles for 10 neurochemical genes across 12 brain regions important for decision-making in 88 species representing five vertebrate lineages. We found that behaviorally relevant brain regions are remarkably conserved over 450 million years of evolution. We also find evidence that different brain regions have experienced different selection pressures, because spatial distribution of neuroendocrine ligands are more flexible than their receptors across vertebrates. Our analysis suggests that the diversity of social behavior in vertebrates can be explained, in part, by variations on a theme of conserved neural and gene expression networks.

  3. Research of personal decision process using event-related potentials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xiaofeng

    2011-10-01

    To gain insights into the neural basis of such adaptive decision-making processes, we investigated the nature of learning process in humans playing a competitive game with binary choices, using a matching pennies game. As in reinforcement learning, the subject's choice during a competitive game was biased by its choice and reward history, as well as by the strategies of its opponent. Analyses of ERP data focused on the feedback-related negativity (FRN), we found that the magnitude of ERPs after losing to the computer opponent predicted whether subjects would change decision behavior on the subsequent trial. These findings provide novel evidence that humans engage a reinforcement learning process to adjust representations of competing decision options.

  4. Adaptive Heat Engine.

    PubMed

    Allahverdyan, A E; Babajanyan, S G; Martirosyan, N H; Melkikh, A V

    2016-07-15

    A major limitation of many heat engines is that their functioning demands on-line control and/or an external fitting between the environmental parameters (e.g., temperatures of thermal baths) and internal parameters of the engine. We study a model for an adaptive heat engine, where-due to feedback from the functional part-the engine's structure adapts to given thermal baths. Hence, no on-line control and no external fitting are needed. The engine can employ unknown resources; it can also adapt to results of its own functioning that make the bath temperatures closer. We determine resources of adaptation and relate them to the prior information available about the environment.

  5. Adaptive Heat Engine.

    PubMed

    Allahverdyan, A E; Babajanyan, S G; Martirosyan, N H; Melkikh, A V

    2016-07-15

    A major limitation of many heat engines is that their functioning demands on-line control and/or an external fitting between the environmental parameters (e.g., temperatures of thermal baths) and internal parameters of the engine. We study a model for an adaptive heat engine, where-due to feedback from the functional part-the engine's structure adapts to given thermal baths. Hence, no on-line control and no external fitting are needed. The engine can employ unknown resources; it can also adapt to results of its own functioning that make the bath temperatures closer. We determine resources of adaptation and relate them to the prior information available about the environment. PMID:27472104

  6. Adaptations, exaptations, and spandrels.

    PubMed

    Buss, D M; Haselton, M G; Shackelford, T K; Bleske, A L; Wakefield, J C

    1998-05-01

    Adaptation and natural selection are central concepts in the emerging science of evolutionary psychology. Natural selection is the only known causal process capable of producing complex functional organic mechanisms. These adaptations, along with their incidental by-products and a residue of noise, comprise all forms of life. Recently, S. J. Gould (1991) proposed that exaptations and spandrels may be more important than adaptations for evolutionary psychology. These refer to features that did not originally arise for their current use but rather were co-opted for new purposes. He suggested that many important phenomena--such as art, language, commerce, and war--although evolutionary in origin, are incidental spandrels of the large human brain. The authors outline the conceptual and evidentiary standards that apply to adaptations, exaptations, and spandrels and discuss the relative utility of these concepts for psychological science. PMID:9612136

  7. Rocketing into Adaptive Inquiry.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farenga, Stephen J.; Joyce, Beverly A.; Dowling, Thomas W.

    2002-01-01

    Defines adaptive inquiry and argues for employing this method which allows lessons to be shaped in response to student needs. Illustrates this idea by detailing an activity in which teams of students build rockets. (DDR)

  8. Adaptive Management of Ecosystems

    EPA Science Inventory

    Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management. As such, management may be treated as experiment, with replication, or management may be conducted in an iterative manner. Although the concept has resonated with many...

  9. The genomics of adaptation.

    PubMed

    Radwan, Jacek; Babik, Wiesław

    2012-12-22

    The amount and nature of genetic variation available to natural selection affect the rate, course and outcome of evolution. Consequently, the study of the genetic basis of adaptive evolutionary change has occupied biologists for decades, but progress has been hampered by the lack of resolution and the absence of a genome-level perspective. Technological advances in recent years should now allow us to answer many long-standing questions about the nature of adaptation. The data gathered so far are beginning to challenge some widespread views of the way in which natural selection operates at the genomic level. Papers in this Special Feature of Proceedings of the Royal Society B illustrate various aspects of the broad field of adaptation genomics. This introductory article sets up a context and, on the basis of a few selected examples, discusses how genomic data can advance our understanding of the process of adaptation.

  10. Adaptive Heat Engine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allahverdyan, A. E.; Babajanyan, S. G.; Martirosyan, N. H.; Melkikh, A. V.

    2016-07-01

    A major limitation of many heat engines is that their functioning demands on-line control and/or an external fitting between the environmental parameters (e.g., temperatures of thermal baths) and internal parameters of the engine. We study a model for an adaptive heat engine, where—due to feedback from the functional part—the engine's structure adapts to given thermal baths. Hence, no on-line control and no external fitting are needed. The engine can employ unknown resources; it can also adapt to results of its own functioning that make the bath temperatures closer. We determine resources of adaptation and relate them to the prior information available about the environment.

  11. Islands, resettlement and adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnett, Jon; O'Neill, Saffron J.

    2012-01-01

    Resettlement of people living on islands in anticipation of climate impacts risks maladaptation, but some forms of population movement carry fewer risks and larger rewards in terms of adapting to climate change.

  12. Dissociation as complex adaptation.

    PubMed

    Sel, R

    1997-03-01

    In this article the general theory of complex adaptive systems, substantiated by non-linear dynamics, will be used to put the dissociative disorders into a theoretical framework and clarify their genesis and presentation. When a system is far out of equilibrium, dissipative structures may be formed ('order out of chaos', as Prigogine (1) has put it). These structures provide the starting point for further evolution and co-evolution of competing groups of functional schemata divided on a bifurcation surface. Complex adaptation is almost inevitable in a complicated system (such as the brain) driven by non-linear dynamics. Dissociation is thus regarded as a consequence of adaptation to a chaotic environment rich in contrasts. In a sufficiently complex environment a person with dissociative identity disorder is more adapted and thus more likely to occur than a 'normal' monopersonality individual.

  13. Adaptive processing for enhanced target acquisition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Page, Scott F.; Smith, Moira I.; Hickman, Duncan; Bernhardt, Mark; Oxford, William; Watson, Norman; Beath, F.

    2009-05-01

    Conventional air-to-ground target acquisition processes treat the image stream in isolation from external data sources. This ignores information that may be available through modern mission management systems which could be fused into the detection process in order to provide enhanced performance. By way of an example relating to target detection, this paper explores the use of a-priori knowledge and other sensor information in an adaptive architecture with the aim of enhancing performance in decision making. The approach taken here is to use knowledge of target size, terrain elevation, sensor geometry, solar geometry and atmospheric conditions to characterise the expected spatial and radiometric characteristics of a target in terms of probability density functions. An important consideration in the construction of the target probability density functions are the known errors in the a-priori knowledge. Potential targets are identified in the imagery and their spatial and expected radiometric characteristics are used to compute the target likelihood. The adaptive architecture is evaluated alongside a conventional non-adaptive algorithm using synthetic imagery representative of an air-to-ground target acquisition scenario. Lastly, future enhancements to the adaptive scheme are discussed as well as strategies for managing poor quality or absent a-priori information.

  14. Adaptive governance, ecosystem management, and natural capital

    PubMed Central

    Schultz, Lisen; Folke, Carl; Österblom, Henrik; Olsson, Per

    2015-01-01

    To gain insights into the effects of adaptive governance on natural capital, we compare three well-studied initiatives; a landscape in Southern Sweden, the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, and fisheries in the Southern Ocean. We assess changes in natural capital and ecosystem services related to these social–ecological governance approaches to ecosystem management and investigate their capacity to respond to change and new challenges. The adaptive governance initiatives are compared with other efforts aimed at conservation and sustainable use of natural capital: Natura 2000 in Europe, lobster fisheries in the Gulf of Maine, North America, and fisheries in Europe. In contrast to these efforts, we found that the adaptive governance cases developed capacity to perform ecosystem management, manage multiple ecosystem services, and monitor, communicate, and respond to ecosystem-wide changes at landscape and seascape levels with visible effects on natural capital. They enabled actors to collaborate across diverse interests, sectors, and institutional arrangements and detect opportunities and problems as they developed while nurturing adaptive capacity to deal with them. They all spanned local to international levels of decision making, thus representing multilevel governance systems for managing natural capital. As with any governance system, internal changes and external drivers of global impacts and demands will continue to challenge the long-term success of such initiatives. PMID:26082542

  15. Adaptive governance, ecosystem management, and natural capital.

    PubMed

    Schultz, Lisen; Folke, Carl; Österblom, Henrik; Olsson, Per

    2015-06-16

    To gain insights into the effects of adaptive governance on natural capital, we compare three well-studied initiatives; a landscape in Southern Sweden, the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, and fisheries in the Southern Ocean. We assess changes in natural capital and ecosystem services related to these social-ecological governance approaches to ecosystem management and investigate their capacity to respond to change and new challenges. The adaptive governance initiatives are compared with other efforts aimed at conservation and sustainable use of natural capital: Natura 2000 in Europe, lobster fisheries in the Gulf of Maine, North America, and fisheries in Europe. In contrast to these efforts, we found that the adaptive governance cases developed capacity to perform ecosystem management, manage multiple ecosystem services, and monitor, communicate, and respond to ecosystem-wide changes at landscape and seascape levels with visible effects on natural capital. They enabled actors to collaborate across diverse interests, sectors, and institutional arrangements and detect opportunities and problems as they developed while nurturing adaptive capacity to deal with them. They all spanned local to international levels of decision making, thus representing multilevel governance systems for managing natural capital. As with any governance system, internal changes and external drivers of global impacts and demands will continue to challenge the long-term success of such initiatives. PMID:26082542

  16. Adaptive governance, ecosystem management, and natural capital.

    PubMed

    Schultz, Lisen; Folke, Carl; Österblom, Henrik; Olsson, Per

    2015-06-16

    To gain insights into the effects of adaptive governance on natural capital, we compare three well-studied initiatives; a landscape in Southern Sweden, the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, and fisheries in the Southern Ocean. We assess changes in natural capital and ecosystem services related to these social-ecological governance approaches to ecosystem management and investigate their capacity to respond to change and new challenges. The adaptive governance initiatives are compared with other efforts aimed at conservation and sustainable use of natural capital: Natura 2000 in Europe, lobster fisheries in the Gulf of Maine, North America, and fisheries in Europe. In contrast to these efforts, we found that the adaptive governance cases developed capacity to perform ecosystem management, manage multiple ecosystem services, and monitor, communicate, and respond to ecosystem-wide changes at landscape and seascape levels with visible effects on natural capital. They enabled actors to collaborate across diverse interests, sectors, and institutional arrangements and detect opportunities and problems as they developed while nurturing adaptive capacity to deal with them. They all spanned local to international levels of decision making, thus representing multilevel governance systems for managing natural capital. As with any governance system, internal changes and external drivers of global impacts and demands will continue to challenge the long-term success of such initiatives.

  17. Whose decision is it? The microstructure of medical decision making.

    PubMed

    Whitney, Simon N

    2008-01-01

    Medical decision making is sometimes viewed as a relatively simple process in which a decision may be made by the patient, by the physician, or by both patient and physician working together. This two-dimensional portrayal eclipses the important role that others, such as other professionals, family, and friends, may play in the process; as an example of this phenomenon, we trace the evolution of a decision of a teenager with cancer who is contemplating discontinuing chemotherapy. This example also shows how a decision can usefully be understood as consisting of a number of identifiable substeps--what we call the "microstructure" of the decision. These steps show how the physician can play an important role without usurping the patient's rightful decisional authority. PMID:19209569

  18. Whose decision is it? The microstructure of medical decision making.

    PubMed

    Whitney, Simon N

    2008-01-01

    Medical decision making is sometimes viewed as a relatively simple process in which a decision may be made by the patient, by the physician, or by both patient and physician working together. This two-dimensional portrayal eclipses the important role that others, such as other professionals, family, and friends, may play in the process; as an example of this phenomenon, we trace the evolution of a decision of a teenager with cancer who is contemplating discontinuing chemotherapy. This example also shows how a decision can usefully be understood as consisting of a number of identifiable substeps--what we call the "microstructure" of the decision. These steps show how the physician can play an important role without usurping the patient's rightful decisional authority.

  19. Decision blocks: A tool for automating decision making in CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eick, Christoph F.; Mehta, Nikhil N.

    1991-01-01

    The human capability of making complex decision is one of the most fascinating facets of human intelligence, especially if vague, judgemental, default or uncertain knowledge is involved. Unfortunately, most existing rule based forward chaining languages are not very suitable to simulate this aspect of human intelligence, because of their lack of support for approximate reasoning techniques needed for this task, and due to the lack of specific constructs to facilitate the coding of frequently reoccurring decision block to provide better support for the design and implementation of rule based decision support systems. A language called BIRBAL, which is defined on the top of CLIPS, for the specification of decision blocks, is introduced. Empirical experiments involving the comparison of the length of CLIPS program with the corresponding BIRBAL program for three different applications are surveyed. The results of these experiments suggest that for decision making intensive applications, a CLIPS program tends to be about three times longer than the corresponding BIRBAL program.

  20. Adaptable DC offset correction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Golusky, John M. (Inventor); Muldoon, Kelly P. (Inventor)

    2009-01-01

    Methods and systems for adaptable DC offset correction are provided. An exemplary adaptable DC offset correction system evaluates an incoming baseband signal to determine an appropriate DC offset removal scheme; removes a DC offset from the incoming baseband signal based on the appropriate DC offset scheme in response to the evaluated incoming baseband signal; and outputs a reduced DC baseband signal in response to the DC offset removed from the incoming baseband signal.

  1. Critical decisions on Cosmic Vision

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2003-11-01

    , the technical precursor to the world’s first gravitational wave astronomical observatory, LISA. The LISA mission itself (to be carried out in cooperation with the United States) is scheduled for launch in 2012. ESA's Cosmic Vision, set to last until 2012, is a living programme. It has to adapt constantly to the available funding as well as respond to the expectations of the scientific community, and to technological developments. Within these boundaries, the decisions made by the SPC try to maximise the outcome of Cosmic Vision across disciplines, keeping it challenging and at the same time affordable. Nonetheless, there are many European scientists with ambitions that exceed the programme’s ability to respond.

  2. Soft Decision Analyzer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Steele, Glen; Lansdowne, Chatwin; Zucha, Joan; Schlensinger, Adam

    2013-01-01

    The Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) is an instrument that combines hardware, firmware, and software to perform realtime closed-loop end-to-end statistical analysis of single- or dual- channel serial digital RF communications systems operating in very low signal-to-noise conditions. As an innovation, the unique SDA capabilities allow it to perform analysis of situations where the receiving communication system slips bits due to low signal-to-noise conditions or experiences constellation rotations resulting in channel polarity in versions or channel assignment swaps. SDA s closed-loop detection allows it to instrument a live system and correlate observations with frame, codeword, and packet losses, as well as Quality of Service (QoS) and Quality of Experience (QoE) events. The SDA s abilities are not confined to performing analysis in low signal-to-noise conditions. Its analysis provides in-depth insight of a communication system s receiver performance in a variety of operating conditions. The SDA incorporates two techniques for identifying slips. The first is an examination of content of the received data stream s relation to the transmitted data content and the second is a direct examination of the receiver s recovered clock signals relative to a reference. Both techniques provide benefits in different ways and allow the communication engineer evaluating test results increased confidence and understanding of receiver performance. Direct examination of data contents is performed by two different data techniques, power correlation or a modified Massey correlation, and can be applied to soft decision data widths 1 to 12 bits wide over a correlation depth ranging from 16 to 512 samples. The SDA detects receiver bit slips within a 4 bits window and can handle systems with up to four quadrants (QPSK, SQPSK, and BPSK systems). The SDA continuously monitors correlation results to characterize slips and quadrant change and is capable of performing analysis even when the

  3. Geospatial decision support systems for societal decision making

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bernknopf, R.L.

    2005-01-01

    While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the

  4. Leak test adapter for containers

    DOEpatents

    Hallett, Brian H.; Hartley, Michael S.

    1996-01-01

    An adapter is provided for facilitating the charging of containers and leak testing penetration areas. The adapter comprises an adapter body and stem which are secured to the container's penetration areas. The container is then pressurized with a tracer gas. Manipulating the adapter stem installs a penetration plug allowing the adapter to be removed and the penetration to be leak tested with a mass spectrometer. Additionally, a method is provided for using the adapter.

  5. Adaptation and perceptual norms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webster, Michael A.; Yasuda, Maiko; Haber, Sara; Leonard, Deanne; Ballardini, Nicole

    2007-02-01

    We used adaptation to examine the relationship between perceptual norms--the stimuli observers describe as psychologically neutral, and response norms--the stimulus levels that leave visual sensitivity in a neutral or balanced state. Adapting to stimuli on opposite sides of a neutral point (e.g. redder or greener than white) biases appearance in opposite ways. Thus the adapting stimulus can be titrated to find the unique adapting level that does not bias appearance. We compared these response norms to subjectively defined neutral points both within the same observer (at different retinal eccentricities) and between observers. These comparisons were made for visual judgments of color, image focus, and human faces, stimuli that are very different and may depend on very different levels of processing, yet which share the property that for each there is a well defined and perceptually salient norm. In each case the adaptation aftereffects were consistent with an underlying sensitivity basis for the perceptual norm. Specifically, response norms were similar to and thus covaried with the perceptual norm, and under common adaptation differences between subjectively defined norms were reduced. These results are consistent with models of norm-based codes and suggest that these codes underlie an important link between visual coding and visual experience.

  6. Adaptation through proportion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiong, Liyang; Shi, Wenjia; Tang, Chao

    2016-08-01

    Adaptation is a ubiquitous feature in biological sensory and signaling networks. It has been suggested that adaptive systems may follow certain simple design principles across diverse organisms, cells and pathways. One class of networks that can achieve adaptation utilizes an incoherent feedforward control, in which two parallel signaling branches exert opposite but proportional effects on the output at steady state. In this paper, we generalize this adaptation mechanism by establishing a steady-state proportionality relationship among a subset of nodes in a network. Adaptation can be achieved by using any two nodes in the sub-network to respectively regulate the output node positively and negatively. We focus on enzyme networks and first identify basic regulation motifs consisting of two and three nodes that can be used to build small networks with proportional relationships. Larger proportional networks can then be constructed modularly similar to LEGOs. Our method provides a general framework to construct and analyze a class of proportional and/or adaptation networks with arbitrary size, flexibility and versatile functional features.

  7. The Climate Adaptation Frontier

    SciTech Connect

    Preston, Benjamin L

    2013-01-01

    Climate adaptation has emerged as a mainstream risk management strategy for assisting in maintaining socio-ecological systems within the boundaries of a safe operating space. Yet, there are limits to the ability of systems to adapt. Here, we introduce the concept of an adaptation frontier , which is defined as a socio-ecological system s transitional adaptive operating space between safe and unsafe domains. A number of driving forces are responsible for determining the sustainability of systems on the frontier. These include path dependence, adaptation/development deficits, values conflicts and discounting of future loss and damage. The cumulative implications of these driving forces are highly uncertain. Nevertheless, the fact that a broad range of systems already persist at the edge of their frontiers suggests a high likelihood that some limits will eventually be exceeded. The resulting system transformation is likely to manifest as anticipatory modification of management objectives or loss and damage. These outcomes vary significantly with respect to their ethical implications. Successful navigation of the adaptation frontier will necessitate new paradigms of risk governance to elicit knowledge that encourages reflexive reevaluation of societal values that enable or constrain sustainability.

  8. Exploring Hospice Decisions: The Road from the Institute on Aging and Social Work to an ARRA Challenge Grant

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Waldrop, Deborah

    2014-01-01

    Decisions about treatment and options for care at the end stage of an advanced chronic illness are important determinants of the quality of a person's death and of how family members adapt in bereavement. This article describes the steps taken to secure federal funding to study how people make the decision to enroll in hospice. The National…

  9. A Method to Assess Climate-Relevant Decisions: Application in the Chesapeake Bay (2010 External Review Draft)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The goal of this study is to formalize an approach to inventory and analyze management decisions in order to produce useful information targeted toward effective adaptation to climate change. The approach uses as its starting point ongoing planning processes and decisions geared ...

  10. Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): A novel practical guidance for Climate Resilient Investments and Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeuken, Ad; Mendoza, Guillermo; Matthews, John; Ray, Patrick; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Gilroy, Kristin; Olsen, Rolf; Kucharski, John; Stakhiv, Gene; Cushing, Janet; Brown, Casey

    2016-04-01

    Engineers and water managers have always incorporated uncertainty in water resources operations, design and planning. In recent years, concern has been growing concern that many of the fundamental principles to address uncertainty in planning and design are insufficient for coping with unprecedented shifts in climate, especially given the long lifetimes of water investments - spanning decades, even centuries. Can we design and operate new flood risk management, energy, water supply and sanitation, and agricultural projects that are robust to shifts over 20, 50, or more years? Since about 2009, better approaches to planning and designing under climate uncertainty have been gaining ground worldwide. The main challenge is to operationalize these approaches and bring them from science to practice, embed them within the existing decision-making processes of particular institutions, and shift from highly specialized "boutique" applications to methods that result in consistent, replicable outcomes accessible to water managers worldwide. With CRIDA a serious step is taken to achieve these goals. CRIDA is built on two innovative but complementary approaches that have developed in isolation across the Atlantic over the past seven years: diagnosing and assessing risk (decision scaling), and developing sequential decision steps to compensate for uncertainty within regulatory / performance standards (adaptation pathways). First, the decision scaling or "bottom up" framework to climate change adaptation was first conceptualized during the US/Canada Great Lakes regulation study and has recently been placed in a decision-making context for water-related investments published by the World Bank Second, the adaptation pathways approach was developed in the Netherlands to cope with the level of climate uncertainty we now face. Adaptation pathways is a tool for maintaining options and flexibility while meeting operational goals by envisioning how sequences of decisions can be navigated

  11. Brain and behavior in decision-making.

    PubMed

    Cassey, Peter; Heathcote, Andrew; Brown, Scott D

    2014-07-01

    Speed-accuracy tradeoff (SAT) is an adaptive process balancing urgency and caution when making decisions. Computational cognitive theories, known as "evidence accumulation models", have explained SATs via a manipulation of the amount of evidence necessary to trigger response selection. New light has been shed on these processes by single-cell recordings from monkeys who were adjusting their SAT settings. Those data have been interpreted as inconsistent with existing evidence accumulation theories, prompting the addition of new mechanisms to the models. We show that this interpretation was wrong, by demonstrating that the neural spiking data, and the behavioural data are consistent with existing evidence accumulation theories, without positing additional mechanisms. Our approach succeeds by using the neural data to provide constraints on the cognitive model. Open questions remain about the locus of the link between certain elements of the cognitive models and the neurophysiology, and about the relationship between activity in cortical neurons identified with decision-making vs. activity in downstream areas more closely linked with motor effectors. PMID:24991810

  12. Weather to Make a Decision

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoyle, Julie E.; Mjelde, James W.; Litzenberg, Kerry K.

    2006-01-01

    DECIDE is a teacher-friendly, integrated approach designed to stimulate learning by allowing students to make decisions about situations they face in their lives while using scientific weather principles. This learning unit integrates weather science, decision theory, mathematics, statistics, geography, and reading in a context of decision…

  13. Multicriteria decision analysis in oncology

    PubMed Central

    Adunlin, Georges; Diaby, Vakaramoko; Montero, Alberto J.; Xiao, Hong

    2015-01-01

    Background There has been a growing interest in the development and application of alternative decision-making frameworks within health care, including multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). Even though the literature includes several reviews on MCDA methods, applications of MCDA in oncology are lacking. Aim The aim of this paper is to discuss a rationale for the use of MCDA in oncology. In this context, the following research question emerged: How can MCDA be used to develop a clinical decision support tool in oncology? Methods In this paper, a brief background on decision making is presented, followed by an overview of MCDA methods and process. The paper discusses some applications of MCDA, proposes research opportunities in the context of oncology and presents an illustrative example of how MCDA can be applied to oncology. Findings Decisions in oncology involve trade-offs between possible benefits and harms. MCDA can help analyse trade-off preferences. A wide range of MCDA methods exist. Each method has its strengths and weaknesses. Choosing the appropriate method varies depending on the source and nature of information used to inform decision making. The literature review identified eight studies. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was the most often used method in the identified studies. Conclusion Overall, MCDA appears to be a promising tool that can be used to assist clinical decision making in oncology. Nonetheless, field testing is desirable before MCDA becomes an established decision-making tool in this field. PMID:24635949

  14. Boosted Decision Trees and Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coadou, Yann

    2013-07-01

    Decision trees are a machine learning technique more and more commonly used in high energy physics, while it has been widely used in the social sciences. After introducing the concepts of decision trees, this article focuses on its application in particle physics.

  15. Administrators' Decisions about Resource Allocation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knight, William E.; Folkins, John W.; Hakel, Milton D.; Kennell, Richard P.

    2011-01-01

    Do academic administrators make decisions about resource allocation differently depending on the discipline receiving the funding? Does an administrator's academic identity influence these decisions? This study explored those questions with a sample of 1,690 academic administrators at doctoral-research universities. Participants used fictional…

  16. Decision Support Systems in Libraries.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heindel, Allan; Napier, H. Albert

    Following a review of the contributions of computers and managerial science/operations research to the management of libraries, this paper introduces the concept of decision support systems. DSS, a blending of these techniques, can lead to more effective decisions by library managers. A case study of the utilization of a DSS in the budgeting…

  17. Decision Making and Health Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duryea, Elias J.

    1983-01-01

    A position statement is offered that clarifies the function, role, and emphasis of decision making within the field of health education, and a rationale that proposes that health decision-making efforts be limited to areas where evidence links a health behavior (i.e., smoking) to a health problem (i.e., lung cancer) is presented. (Author/CJ)

  18. Ethical Decision Making: Basic Issues

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bradley, Loretta J.; Hendricks, C. Bret

    2008-01-01

    Among counselors, ethical dilemmas occur often. Although ethical dilemmas are challenging, they can be solved by implementing a code of ethics and/or an ethical decision-making model. Using case studies, the authors illustrate how counselors can make informed, accurate decisions that are made to protect the welfare of the client. It also helps…

  19. Determining the optimal planting density and land expectation value -- a numerical evaluation of decision model

    SciTech Connect

    Gong, P. . Dept. of Forest Economics)

    1998-08-01

    Different decision models can be constructed and used to analyze a regeneration decision in even-aged stand management. However, the optimal decision and management outcomes determined in an analysis may depend on the decision model used in the analysis. This paper examines the proper choice of decision model for determining the optimal planting density and land expectation value (LEV) for a Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) plantation in northern Sweden. First, a general adaptive decision model for determining the regeneration alternative that maximizes the LEV is presented. This model recognizes future stand state and timber price uncertainties by including multiple stand state and timber price scenarios, and assumes that the harvest decision in each future period will be made conditional on the observed stand state and timber prices. Alternative assumptions about future stand states, timber prices, and harvest decisions can be incorporated into this general decision model, resulting in several different decision models that can be used to analyze a specific regeneration problem. Next, the consequences of choosing different modeling assumptions are determined using the example Scots pine plantation problem. Numerical results show that the most important sources of uncertainty that affect the optimal planting density and LEV are variations of the optimal clearcut time due to short-term fluctuations of timber prices. It is appropriate to determine the optimal planting density and harvest policy using an adaptive decision model that recognizes uncertainty only in future timber prices. After the optimal decisions have been found, however, the LEV should be re-estimated by incorporating both future stand state and timber price uncertainties.

  20. Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: household strategies and determinants.

    PubMed

    Bryan, Elizabeth; Ringler, Claudia; Okoba, Barrack; Roncoli, Carla; Silvestri, Silvia; Herrero, Mario

    2013-01-15

    Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change, given dependence on agricultural production and limited adaptive capacity. Based on farm household and Participatory Rural Appraisal data collected from districts in various agroecological zones in Kenya, this paper examines farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and factors influencing farmers' decisions to adapt. The results show that households face considerable challenges in adapting to climate change. While many households have made small adjustments to their farming practices in response to climate change (in particular, changing planting decisions), few households are able to make more costly investments, for example in agroforestry or irrigation, although there is a desire to invest in such measures. This emphasizes the need for greater investments in rural and agricultural development to support the ability of households to make strategic, long-term decisions that affect their future well-being.

  1. The physics of bacterial decision making

    PubMed Central

    Ben-Jacob, Eshel; Lu, Mingyang; Schultz, Daniel; Onuchic, Jose' N.

    2014-01-01

    The choice that bacteria make between sporulation and competence when subjected to stress provides a prototypical example of collective cell fate determination that is stochastic on the individual cell level, yet predictable (deterministic) on the population level. This collective decision is performed by an elaborated gene network. Considerable effort has been devoted to simplify its complexity by taking physics approaches to untangle the basic functional modules that are integrated to form the complete network: (1) A stochastic switch whose transition probability is controlled by two order parameters—population density and internal/external stress. (2) An adaptable timer whose clock rate is normalized by the same two previous order parameters. (3) Sensing units which measure population density and external stress. (4) A communication module that exchanges information about the cells' internal stress levels. (5) An oscillating gate of the stochastic switch which is regulated by the timer. The unique circuit architecture of the gate allows special dynamics and noise management features. The gate opens a window of opportunity in time for competence transitions, during which the circuit generates oscillations that are translated into a chain of short intervals with high transition probability. In addition, the unique architecture of the gate allows filtering of external noise and robustness against variations in circuit parameters and internal noise. We illustrate that a physics approach can be very valuable in investigating the decision process and in identifying its general principles. We also show that both cell-cell variability and noise have important functional roles in the collectively controlled individual decisions. PMID:25401094

  2. Models of Affective Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Charpentier, Caroline J.; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Li, Xinyi; Roiser, Jonathan P.; Sharot, Tali

    2016-01-01

    Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing a unique contribution of feelings to decisions, over and above value. Similar to the value function in prospect theory, our feeling function showed diminished sensitivity to outcomes as value increased. However, loss aversion in choice was explained by an asymmetry in how feelings about losses and gains were weighted when making a decision, not by an asymmetry in the feelings themselves. The results provide new insights into how feelings are utilized to reach a decision. PMID:27071751

  3. Extraneous factors in judicial decisions.

    PubMed

    Danziger, Shai; Levav, Jonathan; Avnaim-Pesso, Liora

    2011-04-26

    Are judicial rulings based solely on laws and facts? Legal formalism holds that judges apply legal reasons to the facts of a case in a rational, mechanical, and deliberative manner. In contrast, legal realists argue that the rational application of legal reasons does not sufficiently explain the decisions of judges and that psychological, political, and social factors influence judicial rulings. We test the common caricature of realism that justice is "what the judge ate for breakfast" in sequential parole decisions made by experienced judges. We record the judges' two daily food breaks, which result in segmenting the deliberations of the day into three distinct "decision sessions." We find that the percentage of favorable rulings drops gradually from ≈ 65% to nearly zero within each decision session and returns abruptly to ≈ 65% after a break. Our findings suggest that judicial rulings can be swayed by extraneous variables that should have no bearing on legal decisions. PMID:21482790

  4. Decision making: rational or hedonic?

    PubMed Central

    Cabanac, Michel; Bonniot-Cabanac, Marie-Claude

    2007-01-01

    Three experiments studied the hedonicity of decision making. Participants rated their pleasure/displeasure while reading item-sentences describing political and social problems followed by different decisions (Questionnaire 1). Questionnaire 2 was multiple-choice, grouping the items from Questionnaire 1. In Experiment 1, participants answered Questionnaire 2 rapidly or slowly. Both groups selected what they had rated as pleasant, but the 'leisurely' group maximized pleasure less. In Experiment 2, participants selected the most rational responses. The selected behaviors were pleasant but less than spontaneous behaviors. In Experiment 3, Questionnaire 2 was presented once with items grouped by theme, and once with items shuffled. Participants maximized the pleasure of their decisions, but the items selected on Questionnaires 2 were different when presented in different order. All groups maximized pleasure equally in their decisions. These results support that decisions are made predominantly in the hedonic dimension of consciousness. PMID:17848195

  5. Extraneous factors in judicial decisions

    PubMed Central

    Danziger, Shai; Levav, Jonathan; Avnaim-Pesso, Liora

    2011-01-01

    Are judicial rulings based solely on laws and facts? Legal formalism holds that judges apply legal reasons to the facts of a case in a rational, mechanical, and deliberative manner. In contrast, legal realists argue that the rational application of legal reasons does not sufficiently explain the decisions of judges and that psychological, political, and social factors influence judicial rulings. We test the common caricature of realism that justice is “what the judge ate for breakfast” in sequential parole decisions made by experienced judges. We record the judges’ two daily food breaks, which result in segmenting the deliberations of the day into three distinct “decision sessions.” We find that the percentage of favorable rulings drops gradually from ≈65% to nearly zero within each decision session and returns abruptly to ≈65% after a break. Our findings suggest that judicial rulings can be swayed by extraneous variables that should have no bearing on legal decisions. PMID:21482790

  6. Four lessons in adaptive leadership.

    PubMed

    Useem, Michael

    2010-11-01

    The armed services have been in the business of leadership development much longer than the corporate world has. Today's military leaders need tools and techniques to face a fast-changing and unpredictable type of enemy--so the armed services train their officers in ways that build a culture of readiness and commitment. Business leaders need to foster an adaptive culture to survive and succeed, given that they, too, face unprecedented uncertainty--and new types of competitors. Michael Useem and his colleagues at the Wharton School incorporate exposure to military leadership into MBA and executive MBA programs. Highlights include direct contact in the classroom with leaders in the U.S. Army, the U.S. Marine Corps, and the Department of Defense, along with field-training exercises and battlefield visits. The programs are designed to help students connect viscerally to essential leadership lessons. Four are featured in the article: Meet the troops. Creating a personal link is crucial to leading people in challenging times. Make decisions. Making good and timely calls is the crux of leadership. Mission first. Focus on common purpose and eschew personal gain. Convey strategic intent. Make the objectives clear, but give people the freedom to execute on them in their own way.

  7. Multimodel inference and adaptive management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rehme, S.E.; Powell, L.A.; Allen, C.R.

    2011-01-01

    Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.

  8. Sensory adaptation for timing perception.

    PubMed

    Roseboom, Warrick; Linares, Daniel; Nishida, Shin'ya

    2015-04-22

    Recent sensory experience modifies subjective timing perception. For example, when visual events repeatedly lead auditory events, such as when the sound and video tracks of a movie are out of sync, subsequent vision-leads-audio presentations are reported as more simultaneous. This phenomenon could provide insights into the fundamental problem of how timing is represented in the brain, but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Here, we show that the effect of recent experience on timing perception is not just subjective; recent sensory experience also modifies relative timing discrimination. This result indicates that recent sensory history alters the encoding of relative timing in sensory areas, excluding explanations of the subjective phenomenon based only on decision-level changes. The pattern of changes in timing discrimination suggests the existence of two sensory components, similar to those previously reported for visual spatial attributes: a lateral shift in the nonlinear transducer that maps relative timing into perceptual relative timing and an increase in transducer slope around the exposed timing. The existence of these components would suggest that previous explanations of how recent experience may change the sensory encoding of timing, such as changes in sensory latencies or simple implementations of neural population codes, cannot account for the effect of sensory adaptation on timing perception. PMID:25788590

  9. Time to decision: the drivers of innovation adoption decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciganek, Andrew Paul; (Dave) Haseman, William; Ramamurthy, K.

    2014-03-01

    Organisations desire timeliness. Timeliness facilitates a better responsiveness to changes in an organisation's external environment to either attain or maintain competitiveness. Despite its importance, decision timeliness has not been explicitly examined. Decision timeliness is measured in this study as the time taken to commit to a decision. The research objective is to identify the drivers of decision timeliness in the context of adopting service-oriented architecture (SOA), an innovation for enterprise computing. A research model rooted in the technology-organisation-environment (TOE) framework is proposed and tested with data collected in a large-scale study. The research variables have been examined before in the context of adoption, but their applicability to the timeliness of innovation decision-making has not received much attention and their salience is unclear. The results support multiple hypothesised relationships, including the finding that a risk-oriented organisational culture as well as normative and coercive pressures accelerates decision timeliness. Top management support as well as the traditional innovation attributes (compatibility, relative advantage and complexity/ease-of-use) were not found to be significant when examining their influence on decision timeliness, which appears inconsistent with generally accepted knowledge and deserves further examination.

  10. Constrained Adaptive Sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davenport, Mark A.; Massimino, Andrew K.; Needell, Deanna; Woolf, Tina

    2016-10-01

    Suppose that we wish to estimate a vector $\\mathbf{x} \\in \\mathbb{C}^n$ from a small number of noisy linear measurements of the form $\\mathbf{y} = \\mathbf{A x} + \\mathbf{z}$, where $\\mathbf{z}$ represents measurement noise. When the vector $\\mathbf{x}$ is sparse, meaning that it has only $s$ nonzeros with $s \\ll n$, one can obtain a significantly more accurate estimate of $\\mathbf{x}$ by adaptively selecting the rows of $\\mathbf{A}$ based on the previous measurements provided that the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is sufficiently large. In this paper we consider the case where we wish to realize the potential of adaptivity but where the rows of $\\mathbf{A}$ are subject to physical constraints. In particular, we examine the case where the rows of $\\mathbf{A}$ are constrained to belong to a finite set of allowable measurement vectors. We demonstrate both the limitations and advantages of adaptive sensing in this constrained setting. We prove that for certain measurement ensembles, the benefits offered by adaptive designs fall far short of the improvements that are possible in the unconstrained adaptive setting. On the other hand, we also provide both theoretical and empirical evidence that in some scenarios adaptivity does still result in substantial improvements even in the constrained setting. To illustrate these potential gains, we propose practical algorithms for constrained adaptive sensing by exploiting connections to the theory of optimal experimental design and show that these algorithms exhibit promising performance in some representative applications.

  11. Conformance Testing: Measurement Decision Rules

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mimbs, Scott M.

    2010-01-01

    The goal of a Quality Management System (QMS) as specified in ISO 9001 and AS9100 is to provide assurance to the customer that end products meet specifications. Measuring devices, often called measuring and test equipment (MTE), are used to provide the evidence of product conformity to specified requirements. Unfortunately, processes that employ MTE can become a weak link to the overall QMS if proper attention is not given to the measurement process design, capability, and implementation. Documented "decision rules" establish the requirements to ensure measurement processes provide the measurement data that supports the needs of the QMS. Measurement data are used to make the decisions that impact all areas of technology. Whether measurements support research, design, production, or maintenance, ensuring the data supports the decision is crucial. Measurement data quality can be critical to the resulting consequences of measurement-based decisions. Historically, most industries required simplistic, one-size-fits-all decision rules for measurements. One-size-fits-all rules in some cases are not rigorous enough to provide adequate measurement results, while in other cases are overly conservative and too costly to implement. Ideally, decision rules should be rigorous enough to match the criticality of the parameter being measured, while being flexible enough to be cost effective. The goal of a decision rule is to ensure that measurement processes provide data with a sufficient level of quality to support the decisions being made - no more, no less. This paper discusses the basic concepts of providing measurement-based evidence that end products meet specifications. Although relevant to all measurement-based conformance tests, the target audience is the MTE end-user, which is anyone using MTE other than calibration service providers. Topics include measurement fundamentals, the associated decision risks, verifying conformance to specifications, and basic measurement

  12. Adaptive resource management and the value of information

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, Byron K.; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Breininger, David R.

    2011-01-01

    The value of information is a general and broadly applicable concept that has been used for several decades to aid in making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Yet there are relatively few examples of its use in ecology and natural resources management, and almost none that are framed in terms of the future impacts of management decisions. In this paper we discuss the value of information in a context of adaptive management, in which actions are taken sequentially over a timeframe and both future resource conditions and residual uncertainties about resource responses are taken into account. Our objective is to derive the value of reducing or eliminating uncertainty in adaptive decision making. We describe several measures of the value of information, with each based on management objectives that are appropriate for adaptive management. We highlight some mathematical properties of these measures, discuss their geometries, and illustrate them with an example in natural resources management. Accounting for the value of information can help to inform decisions about whether and how much to monitor resource conditions through time.

  13. Adaptive resource management and the value of information

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, B.K.; Eaton, M.J.; Breininger, D.R.

    2011-01-01

    The value of information is a general and broadly applicable concept that has been used for several decades to aid in making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Yet there are relatively few examples of its use in ecology and natural resources management, and almost none that are framed in terms of the future impacts of management decisions. In this paper we discuss the value of information in a context of adaptive management, in which actions are taken sequentially over a timeframe and both future resource conditions and residual uncertainties about resource responses are taken into account. Our objective is to derive the value of reducing or eliminating uncertainty in adaptive decision making. We describe several measures of the value of information, with each based on management objectives that are appropriate for adaptive management. We highlight some mathematical properties of these measures, discuss their geometries, and illustrate them with an example in natural resources management. Accounting for the value of information can help to inform decisions about whether and how much to monitor resource conditions through time. ?? 2011.

  14. Drought Risk and Adaptation in the Interior (DRAI)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNeeley, S.; Ojima, D. S.

    2013-12-01

    Drought is part of the normal climate variability in the Great Plains and Intermountain Western United States, but recent severe droughts along with climate change projections have increased the interest and need for better understanding of drought science and decision making. The purpose of this study is to understand how the U.S. Department of the Interior's (DOI) federal land and resource managers and their stakeholders (i.e., National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, Fish and Wildlife Service, Bureau of Reclamation, Bureau of Indian Affairs and tribes, among others) are experiencing and dealing with drought in their landscapes. The Drought Risk and Adaptation in the Interior (DRAI) project is part of a new DOI-sponsored North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) crosscutting science initiative on drought across the Center's three foundational science areas: 1. physical climate, 2. ecosystems impacts and responses, and 3. human adaptation and decision making. The overarching goal is to learn more about drought within the DOI public lands and resource management in order to contribute to both the NC CSC regional science as well as providing managers and other decision makers with the most salient, credible, and legitimate research to support land and resource management decisions. Here we will present the project approach along with some initial insights learned from the research to date along with its utility for climate adaptation.

  15. Adaptive Behavior vs Adaptive Skills: Dimensions in Coping Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leland, Henry

    This paper views the adaptive behavior of individuals with mental retardation as a coping response to the biological and social demands of the environment. Adaptive skills are contrasted with adaptive behaviors, with skills being based primarily on developing new learning and habituating specific responses. Adaptive behavior represents a more…

  16. Differences in decision-making development between expert and novice invasion game players.

    PubMed

    Diaz del Campo, David Gutierrez; Gonzalez Villora, Sixto; Garcia Lopez, Luis M; Mitchell, Stephen

    2011-06-01

    This cross-sectional study investigated the differences between young expert soccer players' (n = 55) and novice players' (n = 74) decision-making ability during performance of invasion games (ages: 7-8, 9-10, 11-12, and 13-14 years). Decision-making ability was assessed in invasion games that were appropriately modified for age and expertise. Games were modified to meet the developmental needs and previous learning of the participants, so interference between motor execution and decision making was minimized. Game performance was videotaped, and measures of cognitive components were developed from observational analysis. Decision making was measured at two levels: (a) decision making restricted to the selection of the technical-tactical skills (passing, moving with the ball, getting free, marking, tackling, double teaming, and interception) and (b) decision making in the adaptation to the tactical context of the game. Expert players remained superior in decision-making ability when variation in skill execution was controlled. Decision-making differences between levels of expertise decreased with age with regard to the first level (skill selection) and increased with age in relation to the second level (tactical-context adaptation). Findings are discussed in terms of implications for instructional focus and task design.

  17. Fuzzy inference game approach to uncertainty in business decisions and market competitions.

    PubMed

    Oderanti, Festus Oluseyi

    2013-01-01

    The increasing challenges and complexity of business environments are making business decisions and operations more difficult for entrepreneurs to predict the outcomes of these processes. Therefore, we developed a decision support scheme that could be used and adapted to various business decision processes. These involve decisions that are made under uncertain situations such as business competition in the market or wage negotiation within a firm. The scheme uses game strategies and fuzzy inference concepts to effectively grasp the variables in these uncertain situations. The games are played between human and fuzzy players. The accuracy of the fuzzy rule base and the game strategies help to mitigate the adverse effects that a business may suffer from these uncertain factors. We also introduced learning which enables the fuzzy player to adapt over time. We tested this scheme in different scenarios and discover that it could be an invaluable tool in the hand of entrepreneurs that are operating under uncertain and competitive business environments. PMID:24109562

  18. Decision models for capital investment and financing decisions in hospitals.

    PubMed Central

    Vraciu, R A

    1980-01-01

    The literature on capital investment and financing decisions for hospitals has suggested several approaches to analyzing sets of options. In this paper, I present a taxonomy of the different approaches; analyze and compare the different elements of the taxonomy; and illustrate and discuss the information that can be gained by using each approach. I view these different analytic methods as complementary rather than competing methods of providing information to decision makers, and argue that the complex nature of hospital objectives demands the use of more than one approach. Failure to do this may lead to biased evaluations and poor decision making. PMID:6768699

  19. Adaptive management: from more talk to real action.

    PubMed

    Williams, Byron K; Brown, Eleanor D

    2014-02-01

    The challenges currently facing resource managers are large-scale and complex, and demand new approaches to balance development and conservation goals. One approach that shows considerable promise for addressing these challenges is adaptive management, which by now is broadly seen as a natural, intuitive, and potentially effective way to address decision-making in the face of uncertainties. Yet the concept of adaptive management continues to evolve, and its record of success remains limited. In this article, we present an operational framework for adaptive decision-making, and describe the challenges and opportunities in applying it to real-world problems. We discuss the key elements required for adaptive decision-making, and their integration into an iterative process that highlights and distinguishes technical and social learning. We illustrate the elements and processes of the framework with some successful on-the-ground examples of natural resource management. Finally, we address some of the difficulties in applying learning-based management, and finish with a discussion of future directions and strategic challenges. PMID:24271618

  20. Adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Fiji.

    PubMed

    Weeks, Rebecca; Jupiter, Stacy D

    2013-12-01

    Adaptive management of natural resources is an iterative process of decision making whereby management strategies are progressively changed or adjusted in response to new information. Despite an increasing focus on the need for adaptive conservation strategies, there remain few applied examples. We describe the 9-year process of adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Kubulau District, Fiji. In 2011, a review of protected area boundaries and management rules was motivated by the need to enhance management effectiveness and the desire to improve resilience to climate change. Through a series of consultations, with the Wildlife Conservation Society providing scientific input to community decision making, the network of marine protected areas was reconfigured so as to maximize resilience and compliance. Factors identified as contributing to this outcome include well-defined resource-access rights; community respect for a flexible system of customary governance; long-term commitment and presence of comanagement partners; supportive policy environment for comanagement; synthesis of traditional management approaches with systematic monitoring; and district-wide coordination, which provided a broader spatial context for adaptive-management decision making. Co-Manejo Adaptativo de una Red de Áreas Marinas Protegidas en Fiyi.

  1. Adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Fiji.

    PubMed

    Weeks, Rebecca; Jupiter, Stacy D

    2013-12-01

    Adaptive management of natural resources is an iterative process of decision making whereby management strategies are progressively changed or adjusted in response to new information. Despite an increasing focus on the need for adaptive conservation strategies, there remain few applied examples. We describe the 9-year process of adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Kubulau District, Fiji. In 2011, a review of protected area boundaries and management rules was motivated by the need to enhance management effectiveness and the desire to improve resilience to climate change. Through a series of consultations, with the Wildlife Conservation Society providing scientific input to community decision making, the network of marine protected areas was reconfigured so as to maximize resilience and compliance. Factors identified as contributing to this outcome include well-defined resource-access rights; community respect for a flexible system of customary governance; long-term commitment and presence of comanagement partners; supportive policy environment for comanagement; synthesis of traditional management approaches with systematic monitoring; and district-wide coordination, which provided a broader spatial context for adaptive-management decision making. Co-Manejo Adaptativo de una Red de Áreas Marinas Protegidas en Fiyi. PMID:24112643

  2. [Cellular adaptation and cancerogenesis].

    PubMed

    La Torre, F; Silpigni, A; Tomasello, R; Picone, G S; La Torre, I; Aragona, M

    1998-06-01

    The paper describes the main adaptive mechanisms involved in the carcinogenic process. As a result of the action of carcinogenic agents (physical, chemical, biological), and in relation to the functional status of the affected cells, a number of systems are triggered off: detoxification and conjugation systems, the metabolisation of the said agents, DNA repairing enzymes, increased shock proteins (HSP), the induction of clonal proliferation. All these systems are valuable to the survival of the body and the species and culminate in the apoptosis of damaged cells as the last attempt at adaptation of a social kind for the good of the body. When these compensation mechanisms prove ineffective, imprecise or are exceeded by cell adaptive capacity, the resulting structural and functional alterations trigger off (induction) a very long process which often lasts between one and two thirds of the body's life, in various stages, multistep and multifactorial: this neoplastic transformation leads to a purposeless, egoistic, anarchic proliferation of cells which wish to survive at all costs, even to the detriment of the body of which they form part. Following the exhaustion of cell adaptive defences, there is an accumulation of additional genetic alterations (promotion and progression), the cells become manifestly neoplastic and continue their egoistic adaptation, according to the laws of natural selection: the cells which survive are those which adapt best to the hostile environment of the host's body, which are unaffected by proliferation control mechanisms (contact inhibition, differentiation factors, apoptosis, etc.), which make the best of the growth factors present in their microenvironment, which accomplish the so-called decathlon of the metastatization process, namely acquiring new capacities which can overcome the basal membrane, invade tissues to which they are attracted and continue to proliferate. Manifestly neoplastic cells become not self at a later stage

  3. Neural nets for adaptive filtering and adaptive pattern recognition

    SciTech Connect

    Widrow, B.; Winter, R.

    1988-03-01

    The fields of adaptive signal processing and adaptive neural networks have been developing independently but have that adaptive linear combiner (ALC) in common. With its inputs connected to a tapped delay line, the ALC becomes a key component of an adaptive filter. With its output connected to a quantizer, the ALC becomes an adaptive threshold element of adaptive neuron. Adaptive threshold elements, on the other hand, are the building blocks of neural networks. Today neural nets are the focus of widespread research interest. Areas of investigation include pattern recognition and trainable logic. Neural network systems have not yet had the commercial impact of adaptive filtering. The commonality of the ALC to adaptive signal processing and adaptive neural networks suggests the two fields have much to share with each other. This article describes practical applications of the ALC in signal processing and pattern recognition.

  4. Solar tomography adaptive optics.

    PubMed

    Ren, Deqing; Zhu, Yongtian; Zhang, Xi; Dou, Jiangpei; Zhao, Gang

    2014-03-10

    Conventional solar adaptive optics uses one deformable mirror (DM) and one guide star for wave-front sensing, which seriously limits high-resolution imaging over a large field of view (FOV). Recent progress toward multiconjugate adaptive optics indicates that atmosphere turbulence induced wave-front distortion at different altitudes can be reconstructed by using multiple guide stars. To maximize the performance over a large FOV, we propose a solar tomography adaptive optics (TAO) system that uses tomographic wave-front information and uses one DM. We show that by fully taking advantage of the knowledge of three-dimensional wave-front distribution, a classical solar adaptive optics with one DM can provide an extra performance gain for high-resolution imaging over a large FOV in the near infrared. The TAO will allow existing one-deformable-mirror solar adaptive optics to deliver better performance over a large FOV for high-resolution magnetic field investigation, where solar activities occur in a two-dimensional field up to 60'', and where the near infrared is superior to the visible in terms of magnetic field sensitivity.

  5. Adaptation and risk management

    SciTech Connect

    Preston, Benjamin L

    2011-01-01

    Adaptation assessment methods are compatible with the international risk management standard ISO:31000. Risk management approaches are increasingly being recommended for adaptation assessments at both national and local levels. Two orientations to assessments can commonly be identified: top-down and bottom-up, and prescriptive and diagnostic. Combinations of these orientations favor different types of assessments. The choice of orientation can be related to uncertainties in prediction and taking action, in the type of adaptation and in the degree of system stress. Adopting multiple viewpoints is to be encouraged, especially in complex situations. The bulk of current guidance material is consistent with top-down and predictive approaches, thus is most suitable for risk scoping and identification. Abroad range ofmaterial fromwithin and beyond the climate change literature can be used to select methods to be used in assessing and implementing adaptation. The framing of risk, correct formulation of the questions being investigated and assessment methodology are critical aspects of the scoping phase. Only when these issues have been addressed should be issue of specific methods and tools be addressed. The reorientation of adaptation from an assessment focused solely on anthropogenic climate change to broader issues of vulnerability/resilience, sustainable development and disaster risk, especially through a risk management framework, can draw from existing policy and management understanding in communities, professions and agencies, incorporating existing agendas, knowledge, risks, and issues they already face.

  6. Care-related decision-making satisfaction and caregiver well-being in families caring for older members.

    PubMed

    Smerglia, V L; Deimling, G T

    1997-10-01

    Families provide care and make decisions regarding care within the context of specific structural characteristics and the broader family environment. This research analyzes data from 244 adult child and spouse caregiver interviews. It examines the impact of structural variables (e.g., caregiver type, elder impairment) and family environment (adaptability, conflict, cohesion) on satisfaction with care-related decision making and caregiver well-being. Regression analysis results indicate that aspects of family environment such as adaptability and conflict are the best predictors of decision-making satisfaction are the best predictors of caregiver depression.

  7. Uncertain game-collaborative decision-making of combo-biding based on fuzzy Bernardo theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Ruojun; Ma, Guangwen

    2012-01-01

    Combo-biding is uncertain game-collaborative with uncertainty,and decision maker's experience is fuzzy.Gameoptimizing of combo-biding can be translated into fuzzy-chance- restriction programming according to Fuzzy Bernardo Methed with a view to creditability measure of fuzzy occurrence.The method can adapt itself to game-collaborative decision-making of combo-biding in allusion to different gaol.

  8. Ecological Decision Scaling: A Framework For Incorporating Ecological Principles in Water Management Decision Making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grantham, T.; Poff, L.; Spence, C. M.; Matthews, J.; Brown, C. M.; Palmer, M.; Hondula, K. L.; Baeza Castro, C.

    2014-12-01

    Large water infrastructure projects have fueled the economies of developed countries and led to the widespread degradation of freshwater ecosystems. Proposed dams promise to similarly transform the economies and environment of developing countries. Yet with rapidly changing climate, traditional water infrastructure design carries with it an increased risk of failure if climate conditions shift beyond design parameters. Environmental concerns have long been at the periphery of water management decision-making. However, the destabilizing effect of climate change on traditional engineering practices, coupled with increased societal interest in sustainable water management, now present an opportunity to better integrate ecological principles in water infrastructure planning and design. Here we operationalize sustainable water management by incorporating ecological performance metrics with traditional engineering performance criteria in a decision-analysis framework. We adapt the decision-scaling risk assessment approach to evaluate ecological consequences of water management decisions and quantify tradeoffs and synergies among economic and environmental objectives. We apply the framework to the Iowa River system, where recent changes in flood intensity have prompted managers to consider alternative flood control strategies, including new infrastructure and reservoir operation rules. The system was modeled to quantify flood damages (to Iowa City and agricultural lands) and the ecological benefits of river floodplain inundation under alternative management and climate scenarios. We found that raising levees substantially reduced economic damages under wetter and more variable climate futures, but provided limited ecological benefits relative to the status quo. In contrast, changes in reservoir operations did not reduce the risk of catastrophic flood damage, but provided significant ecological benefits associated with increased floodplain inundation. The management option

  9. Evolution of adaptation mechanisms: Adaptation energy, stress, and oscillating death.

    PubMed

    Gorban, Alexander N; Tyukina, Tatiana A; Smirnova, Elena V; Pokidysheva, Lyudmila I

    2016-09-21

    In 1938, Selye proposed the notion of adaptation energy and published 'Experimental evidence supporting the conception of adaptation energy.' Adaptation of an animal to different factors appears as the spending of one resource. Adaptation energy is a hypothetical extensive quantity spent for adaptation. This term causes much debate when one takes it literally, as a physical quantity, i.e. a sort of energy. The controversial points of view impede the systematic use of the notion of adaptation energy despite experimental evidence. Nevertheless, the response to many harmful factors often has general non-specific form and we suggest that the mechanisms of physiological adaptation admit a very general and nonspecific description. We aim to demonstrate that Selye׳s adaptation energy is the cornerstone of the top-down approach to modelling of non-specific adaptation processes. We analyze Selye׳s axioms of adaptation energy together with Goldstone׳s modifications and propose a series of models for interpretation of these axioms. Adaptation energy is considered as an internal coordinate on the 'dominant path' in the model of adaptation. The phenomena of 'oscillating death' and 'oscillating remission' are predicted on the base of the dynamical models of adaptation. Natural selection plays a key role in the evolution of mechanisms of physiological adaptation. We use the fitness optimization approach to study of the distribution of resources for neutralization of harmful factors, during adaptation to a multifactor environment, and analyze the optimal strategies for different systems of factors.

  10. Cardiovascular adaptation to spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hargens, A. R.; Watenpaugh, D. E.

    1996-01-01

    This article reviews recent flight and ground-based studies of cardiovascular adaptation to spaceflight. Prominent features of microgravity exposure include loss of gravitational pressures, relatively low venous pressures, headward fluid shifts, plasma volume loss, and postflight orthostatic intolerance and reduced exercise capacity. Many of these short-term responses to microgravity extend themselves during long-duration microgravity exposure and may be explained by altered pressures (blood and tissue) and fluid balance in local tissues nourished by the cardiovascular system. In this regard, it is particularly noteworthy that tissues of the lower body (e.g., foot) are well adapted to local hypertension on Earth, whereas tissues of the upper body (e.g., head) are not as well adapted to increase in local blood pressure. For these and other reasons, countermeasures for long-duration flight should include reestablishment of higher, Earth-like blood pressures in the lower body.

  11. Cardiovascular adaptation to spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Charles, John B.; Lathers, Claire M.

    1991-01-01

    Data are presented on the rate of adaptation of the human cardiovascular system to conditions of spaceflight, with particular attention given to data obtained during spaceflight in the U.S. Space Shuttle Program. It is pointed out that many of the cardiovascular changes that occurred during spaceflights that lasted from 2 to 11 days can be traced directly to changes in the body fluid volume. The beneficial effects of a fluid loading countermeasure (oral rehydration) and of the supine body position on the heart rate during the spaceflight are demonstrated. It is noted that, after hours or a few days of spaceflight, a state of adaptation is reached, in which the subject is well adapted and appropriately hydrated for the weightless environment. However, the return to the normal gravity of the earth leaves the individual especially sensitive to orthostatic stress.

  12. Adaptation without Plasticity.

    PubMed

    Del Mar Quiroga, Maria; Morris, Adam P; Krekelberg, Bart

    2016-09-27

    Sensory adaptation is a phenomenon in which neurons are affected not only by their immediate input but also by the sequence of preceding inputs. In visual cortex, for example, neurons shift their preferred orientation after exposure to an oriented stimulus. This adaptation is traditionally attributed to plasticity. We show that a recurrent network generates tuning curve shifts observed in cat and macaque visual cortex, even when all synaptic weights and intrinsic properties in the model are fixed. This demonstrates that, in a recurrent network, adaptation on timescales of hundreds of milliseconds does not require plasticity. Given the ubiquity of recurrent connections, this phenomenon likely contributes to responses observed across cortex and shows that plasticity cannot be inferred solely from changes in tuning on these timescales. More broadly, our findings show that recurrent connections can endow a network with a powerful mechanism to store and integrate recent contextual information. PMID:27681421

  13. Adaptive cancellation techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1983-11-01

    An adaptive signal canceller has been evaluated for the enhancement of pulse signal reception during the transmission of a high power ECM jamming signal. The canceller design is based on the use of DRFM(Digital RF Memory) technology as part of an adaptive multiple tapped delay line. The study includes analysis of relationship of tap spacing and waveform bandwidth, survey of related documents in areas of sidelobe cancellers, transversal equalizers, and adaptive filters, and derivation of control equations and corresponding control processes. The simulation of overall processes included geometric analysis of the multibeam transmitting antenna, multiple reflection sources and the receiving antenna; waveforms, tap spacings and bandwidths; and alternate control algorithms. Conclusions are provided regarding practical system control algorithms, design characteristics and limitations.

  14. Adaptive structures. [for space applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wada, B. K.; Fanson, J. L.; Crawley, E. F.

    1990-01-01

    Current research in the field of advanced adaptive structures for space applications is reviewed. A classification of adaptive structures is proposed whereby such structures are subdivided into adaptive, sensory, controlled, active, and intelligent structures. The definition and properties of each type of adaptive structures are presented, and methods of structure control are discussed.

  15. The Role of Bridging Organizations in Enhancing Ecosystem Services and Facilitating Adaptive Management of Social-Ecological Systems

    EPA Science Inventory

    Adaptive management is an approach for monitoring the response of ecological systems to different policies and practices and attempts to reduce the inherent uncertainty in ecological systems via system monitoring and iterative decision making and experimentation (Holling 1978). M...

  16. Maternal decisions regarding prenatal diagnosis: rational choices or sensible decisions?

    PubMed

    Lawson, Karen L; Pierson, Roger A

    2007-03-01

    The premise underlying prenatal testing is that knowing the health status of the fetus will enable expectant parents to make rational reproductive decisions. Accordingly, rational-choice perspectives have informed both counselling protocols and the majority of investigations into the psychological processes involved in making decisions about testing and selective abortion. However, because conditions inherent in the testing situation may not adhere to the basic assumptions of rational choice models, the use of these models may be inappropriate. The individualistic focus of rational choice models may be too narrow to encompass the social and psychological factors relevant to making a decision about testing. In light of these limitations, we make a case for adopting a contextual framework for conceptualizing decisions regarding the use of prenatal testing. PMID:17346494

  17. Climate change decision-making: Model & parameter uncertainties explored

    SciTech Connect

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.; Linville, C.

    1995-12-31

    A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives, and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.1. This model includes representation of the processes of demographics, economic activity, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate and sea level change and impacts from these changes and policies for emissions mitigation, and adaptation to change. The model has over 800 objects of which about one half are used to represent uncertainty. In this paper we show, that when considering parameter uncertainties, the relative contribution of climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. When considering model structure uncertainties we find that the choice of policy is often dominated by model structure choice, rather than parameter uncertainties.

  18. Reduced model-based decision-making in schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Culbreth, Adam J; Westbrook, Andrew; Daw, Nathaniel D; Botvinick, Matthew; Barch, Deanna M

    2016-08-01

    Individuals with schizophrenia have a diminished ability to use reward history to adaptively guide behavior. However, tasks traditionally used to assess such deficits often rely on multiple cognitive and neural processes, leaving etiology unresolved. In the current study, we adopted recent computational formalisms of reinforcement learning to distinguish between model-based and model-free decision-making in hopes of specifying mechanisms associated with reinforcement-learning dysfunction in schizophrenia. Under this framework, decision-making is model-free to the extent that it relies solely on prior reward history, and model-based if it relies on prospective information such as motivational state, future consequences, and the likelihood of obtaining various outcomes. Model-based and model-free decision-making was assessed in 33 schizophrenia patients and 30 controls using a 2-stage 2-alternative forced choice task previously demonstrated to discern individual differences in reliance on the 2 forms of reinforcement-learning. We show that, compared with controls, schizophrenia patients demonstrate decreased reliance on model-based decision-making. Further, parameter estimates of model-based behavior correlate positively with IQ and working memory measures, suggesting that model-based deficits seen in schizophrenia may be partially explained by higher-order cognitive deficits. These findings demonstrate specific reinforcement-learning and decision-making deficits and thereby provide valuable insights for understanding disordered behavior in schizophrenia. (PsycINFO Database Record

  19. Spatial education: improving conservation delivery through space-structured decision making

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moore, Clinton T.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Gannon, Jill J.

    2013-01-01

    Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making designed to guide management of natural resource systems when their behaviors are uncertain. Where decision making can be replicated across units of a landscape, learning can be accelerated, and biological processes can be understood in a larger spatial context. Broad-based partnerships among land management agencies, exemplified by Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (conservation partnerships created through the U.S. Department of the Interior), are potentially ideal environments for implementing spatially structured adaptive management programs.

  20. Training for Aviation Decision Making: The Naturalistic Decision Making Perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the implications of a naturalistic decision making (NDM) perspective for training air crews to make flight-related decisions. The implications are based on two types of analyses: (a) identification of distinctive features that serve as a basis for classifying a diverse set of decision events actually encountered by flight crews, and (b) performance strategies that distinguished more from less effective crews flying full-mission simulators, as well as performance analyses from NTSB accident investigations. Six training recommendations are offered: (1) Because of the diversity of decision situations, crews need to be aware that different strategies may be appropriate for different problems; (2) Given that situation assessment is essential to making a good decision, it is important to train specific content knowledge needed to recognize critical conditions, to assess risks and available time, and to develop strategies to verify or diagnose the problem; (3) Tendencies to oversimplify problems may be overcome by training to evaluate options in terms of goals, constraints, consequences, and prevailing conditions; (4) In order to provide the time to gather information and consider options, it is essential to manage the situation, which includes managing crew workload, prioritizing tasks, contingency planning, buying time (e.g., requesting holding or vectors), and using low workload periods to prepare for high workload; (5) Evaluating resource requirements ("What do I need?") and capabilities ("'What do I have?" ) are essential to making good decisions. Using resources to meet requirements may involve the cabin crew, ATC, dispatchers, and maintenance personnel; (6) Given that decisions must often be made under high risk, time pressure, and workload, train under realistic flight conditions to promote the development of robust decision skills.