Science.gov

Sample records for adaptive risk management

  1. Adaptation and risk management

    SciTech Connect

    Preston, Benjamin L

    2011-01-01

    Adaptation assessment methods are compatible with the international risk management standard ISO:31000. Risk management approaches are increasingly being recommended for adaptation assessments at both national and local levels. Two orientations to assessments can commonly be identified: top-down and bottom-up, and prescriptive and diagnostic. Combinations of these orientations favor different types of assessments. The choice of orientation can be related to uncertainties in prediction and taking action, in the type of adaptation and in the degree of system stress. Adopting multiple viewpoints is to be encouraged, especially in complex situations. The bulk of current guidance material is consistent with top-down and predictive approaches, thus is most suitable for risk scoping and identification. Abroad range ofmaterial fromwithin and beyond the climate change literature can be used to select methods to be used in assessing and implementing adaptation. The framing of risk, correct formulation of the questions being investigated and assessment methodology are critical aspects of the scoping phase. Only when these issues have been addressed should be issue of specific methods and tools be addressed. The reorientation of adaptation from an assessment focused solely on anthropogenic climate change to broader issues of vulnerability/resilience, sustainable development and disaster risk, especially through a risk management framework, can draw from existing policy and management understanding in communities, professions and agencies, incorporating existing agendas, knowledge, risks, and issues they already face.

  2. Managing Climate Risk. Integrating Adaptation into World Bank Group Operations

    SciTech Connect

    Van Aalst, M.

    2006-08-15

    Climate change is already taking place, and further changes are inevitable. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people in these countries, are most at risk. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of developing countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world. Climate change thus directly affects the World Bank Group's mission of eradicating poverty. It also puts at risk many projects in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, human health, water resources, and environment. The risks include physical threats to the investments, potential underperformance, and the possibility that projects will indirectly contribute to rising vulnerability by, for example, triggering investment and settlement in high-risk areas. The way to address these concerns is not to separate climate change adaptation from other priorities but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, programs, and projects. While there is a great need to heighten awareness of climate risk in Bank work, a large body of experience on climate risk management is already available, in analytical work, in country dialogues, and in a growing number of investment projects. This operational experience highlights the general ingredients for successful integration of climate risk management into the mainstream development agenda: getting the right sectoral departments and senior policy makers involved; incorporating risk management into economic planning; engaging a wide range of nongovernmental actors (businesses, nongovernmental organizations, communities, and so on); giving attention to regulatory issues; and choosing strategies that will pay off immediately under current

  3. Adaptive and Rational Anticipations in Risk Management Systems and Economy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dubois, Daniel M.; Holmberg, Stig C.

    2010-11-01

    The global financial crisis of year 2009 is explained as a result of uncoordinated risk management decisions in business firms and economic organisations. The underlying reason for this can be found in the current financial system. As the financial market has lost much of its direct coupling to the concrete economy it provides misleading information to economic decision makers at all levels. Hence, the financial system has moved from a state of moderate and slow cyclical fluctuations into a state of fast and chaotic ones. Those misleading decisions can further be described, but not explained, by help of adaptive and rational expectations from macroeconomic theory. In this context, AE, the Adaptive Expectations are related to weak passive Exo-anticipation, and RE, the Rational expectations can be related to a strong, active and design oriented anticipation. The shortcomings of conventional cures, which builds on a reactive paradigm, have already been demonstrated in economic literature and are here further underlined by help of Ashby's "Law of Requisite Variety", Weaver's distinction between systems of "Disorganized Complexity" and those of "Organized Complexity", and Klir's "Reconstructability Analysis". Anticipatory decision-making is hence here proposed as a replacement to current expectation based and passive risk management. An anticipatory model of the business cycle is presented for supporting that proposition. The model, which is an extension of the Kaldor-Kalecki model, includes both retardation and anticipation. While cybernetics with the feedback process in control system deals with an explicit goal or purpose given to a system, the anticipatory system discussed here deals with a behaviour for which the future state of the system is built by the system itself, without explicit goal. A system with weak anticipation is based on a predictive model of the system, while a system with strong anticipation builds its own future by itself. Numerical simulations on

  4. Adaptive Management

    EPA Science Inventory

    Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management where knowledge is incomplete, and when, despite inherent uncertainty, managers and policymakers must act. Unlike a traditional trial and error approach, adaptive managem...

  5. Analysis of Risk Management in Adapted Physical Education Textbooks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Kelle L.; Donovan, Jacqueline B.; Berg, Dominck A.

    2016-01-01

    Physical education teacher education (PETE) programs vary on how the topics of safe teaching and risk management are addressed. Common practices to cover such issues include requiring textbooks, lesson planning, peer teaching, videotaping, reflecting, and reading case law analyses. We used a mixed methods design to examine how risk management is…

  6. Adaptive management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management where knowledge is incomplete, and when, despite inherent uncertainty, managers and policymakers must act. Unlike a traditional trial and error approach, adaptive management has explicit structure, including a careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. The process is iterative, and serves to reduce uncertainty, build knowledge and improve management over time in a goal-oriented and structured process.

  7. Farms adaptation to changes in flood risk: a management approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pivot, Jean-Marc; Martin, Philippe

    2002-10-01

    Creating flood expansion areas e.g. for the protection of urban areas from flooding involves a localised increase in risk which may require farmers to be compensated for crop damage or other losses. With this in mind, the paper sets out the approach used to study the problem and gives results obtained from a survey of farms liable to flooding in central France. The approach is based on a study of decisions made by farmers in situations of uncertainty, using the concept of 'model of action'. The results show that damage caused to farming areas by flooding should be considered both at field level and at farm level. The damage caused to the field depends on the flood itself, the fixed characteristics of the field, and the plant species cultivated. However, the losses to the farm taken as a whole can differ considerably from those for the flooded field, due to 'knock-on' effects on farm operations which depend on the internal organization, the availability of production resources, and the farmer's objectives, both for the farm as a whole and for its individual enterprises. Three main strategies regarding possible flood events were identified. Reasons for choosing one of these include the way the farmer perceives the risk and the size of the area liable to flooding. Finally, the formalisation of farm system management in the face of uncertainty, especially due to flooding, enables compensation to be calculated for farmers whose land is affected by the creation of flood expansion areas.

  8. Societal transformation and adaptation necessary to manage dynamics in flood hazard and risk mitigation (TRANS-ADAPT)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas; Bonnefond, Mathieu; Clarke, Darren; Driessen, Peter; Hegger, Dries; Gatien-Tournat, Amandine; Gralepois, Mathilde; Fournier, Marie; Mees, Heleen; Murphy, Conor; Servain-Courant, Sylvie

    2015-04-01

    project is both scientifically innovative and policy relevant, thereby supporting climate policy needs in Europe towards a concept of risk governance. Key words: climate change adaptation; transformation; flood risk management; resilience; vulnerability; innovative bottom-up developments; multifunctional use

  9. Risk Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, Lloyd

    1998-01-01

    This presentation focuses on the identification of risk management, risk management processes such as: quantification and prioritization; mitigation planning; implementation of risk reduction; and tracking process. It develops examples and answers questions about Risk Management.

  10. Risk tradeoffs in adaptive ecosystem management: the case of the U.S. Forest Service.

    PubMed

    Stern, Marc J; Martin, Caysie A; Predmore, S Andrew; Morse, Wayde C

    2014-06-01

    Natural resource planning processes on public lands in the United States are driven in large part by the requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which dictates general processes for analyzing and disclosing the likely impacts of proposed actions. The outcomes of these processes are the result of multiple factors, many related to the manifold smaller incremental decisions made by agency personnel directing the processes. Through interviews with decision makers, team leaders, and team members on five NEPA processes within the U.S. Forest Service, this study examines those incremental decisions. Risk, in particular external relationship risk, emerged as a dominant lens through which agency personnel weigh and make process-related decisions. We discuss the tradeoffs associated with agency actors' emphasis on this form of risk and their potential implications for adaptive ecosystem management and organizational performance.

  11. Risk Tradeoffs in Adaptive Ecosystem Management: The Case of the U.S. Forest Service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stern, Marc J.; Martin, Caysie A.; Predmore, S. Andrew; Morse, Wayde C.

    2014-06-01

    Natural resource planning processes on public lands in the United States are driven in large part by the requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which dictates general processes for analyzing and disclosing the likely impacts of proposed actions. The outcomes of these processes are the result of multiple factors, many related to the manifold smaller incremental decisions made by agency personnel directing the processes. Through interviews with decision makers, team leaders, and team members on five NEPA processes within the U.S. Forest Service, this study examines those incremental decisions. Risk, in particular external relationship risk, emerged as a dominant lens through which agency personnel weigh and make process-related decisions. We discuss the tradeoffs associated with agency actors' emphasis on this form of risk and their potential implications for adaptive ecosystem management and organizational performance.

  12. Science-policy interface in transformative adaptive flood risk management - decision-making in Austria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thaler, Thomas; Attems, Marie-Sophie; Rauter, Magdalena; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this paper aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this paper focussed on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. This paper used the Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA) as a method to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a system and its potential future development, based on qualitatively assessed impact factors and rated quantitative relations between these factors, such as impact and consistency analysis. The purpose of this approach was to develop scenarios, where participations develop their own strategies how to implement a transformative adaptation strategy in flood risk management. In particular, the interaction between researcher, the public and policy makers was analysed. Challenges and limitations were assessed, such as benefits on costs of adaptation measures, for the implementation of visions to

  13. Private adaptation strategies and implementation in flood risk management: why people do nothing?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Thaler, Thomas; Maris, Fotios; Paparrizos, Spyros; Fuchs, Sven

    2015-04-01

    In the past decades, vulnerability assessment has emerged as an important field of research in flood risk management, in particular with respect to climate change and necessary adaptation strategies for the society. Probably starting with Chamber's seminal article on vulnerability, coping and policy (Chambers 1989), and further developed as the causal structure of vulnerability by Bohle (2001) and others, at least two research paradigms exist: an internal side focusing on societal resilience and coping capacities, and an external side targeted at a reduction of negative effects in terms of loss reduction (Fuchs 2009). Despite considerable research effects, however, different definitions and concepts still dominate the debate; it is surely that different scientific disciplines are working with this term: natural scientists, engineers, social scientists or economists, to name just a few. Each discipline defines vulnerability in a way which fits to their disciplinary purposes (Fuchs et al. 2011). But why has there been so little progress in our ability to adapt to flood hazards? White et al. (2001) summarised this paradox in an article with the title "Knowing better and losing even more - the use of knowledge in hazard management". One of the fundamental reasons for the lack of progress is the continuing separation of research on natural processes and socio-economic processes without considering interaction between these systems (Fuchs & Keiler 2013), as well as between scientific research results and the policy implementation (Medd & Marvin 2005). Moreover, as many studies were focused on the vulnerability of least developed societies to natural hazards (O'Brien et al. 2008), there is a particular lack in studies targeted at an implementation of existing adaptation frameworks at the level of highly-developed countries (Field et al. 2012; Scolobig et al. 2012). This gap results in a challenge for attempts to develop formal models into practical application and policy

  14. Risk Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Randal, L. Nathan

    This chapter of "Principles of School Business Management" presents an overview of risk management for school districts. The chapter first discusses four fundamental elements of risk management: (1) identifying and measuring risks; (2) reducing or eliminating risks; (3) transferring unassumable risks; and (4) assuming remaining risks. The chapter…

  15. Private adaptation strategies and implementation in flood risk management: why people do nothing?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Thaler, Thomas; Maris, Fotios; Paparrizos, Spyros; Fuchs, Sven

    2015-04-01

    In the past decades, vulnerability assessment has emerged as an important field of research in flood risk management, in particular with respect to climate change and necessary adaptation strategies for the society. Probably starting with Chamber's seminal article on vulnerability, coping and policy (Chambers 1989), and further developed as the causal structure of vulnerability by Bohle (2001) and others, at least two research paradigms exist: an internal side focusing on societal resilience and coping capacities, and an external side targeted at a reduction of negative effects in terms of loss reduction (Fuchs 2009). Despite considerable research effects, however, different definitions and concepts still dominate the debate; it is surely that different scientific disciplines are working with this term: natural scientists, engineers, social scientists or economists, to name just a few. Each discipline defines vulnerability in a way which fits to their disciplinary purposes (Fuchs et al. 2011). But why has there been so little progress in our ability to adapt to flood hazards? White et al. (2001) summarised this paradox in an article with the title "Knowing better and losing even more - the use of knowledge in hazard management". One of the fundamental reasons for the lack of progress is the continuing separation of research on natural processes and socio-economic processes without considering interaction between these systems (Fuchs & Keiler 2013), as well as between scientific research results and the policy implementation (Medd & Marvin 2005). Moreover, as many studies were focused on the vulnerability of least developed societies to natural hazards (O'Brien et al. 2008), there is a particular lack in studies targeted at an implementation of existing adaptation frameworks at the level of highly-developed countries (Field et al. 2012; Scolobig et al. 2012). This gap results in a challenge for attempts to develop formal models into practical application and policy

  16. Addressing Disaster Risk Management and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osman Elasha, B. M. E.

    2015-12-01

    The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) demonstrates that an extreme event which used to occur infrequently and perceived today as abnormal will be tomorrow's 'normal' weather. For example the drought events in the African Sahel which once came every decade could now come every couple of years bringing a new challenge and leading to severe disturbances and rapid environmental changes. The report identified and analyzed the problems associated with extreme climatic events, and examined how human responses to these events and the consequent disasters could contribute to adaptation objectives, and how adaptation to climate change could become better integrated with Disasters Risk Management (DRM) practices. Moreover, a number of studies explored the linkages and interactions between disasters and development and clearly demonstrates how the exposure to extremes and vulnerability to climate change can hinder development efforts, emphasizing the need for much smarter development and economic policies that consider managing disaster risk and implement adaptation measures as main components of sustainable development. The proposed presentation will provide an overview of findings from IPCC reports and other studies and will draw on existing experiences and lessons learned to explore the linkages between disaster risk management, adaptation and economic development in Africa. It will also shed light on some of the regional and global interventions which aim at mitigating the impacts of extremes and disasters in African countries characterized by high exposure & vulnerability and low adaptive capacity. It concludes by highlighting the need for broader cooperation and partnership between development partners and agencies working on disaster risk management & climate change adaptation including the private sector, bilateral and multilateral agencies in order to ensure sustainable development.

  17. Security engineering: systems engineering of security through the adaptation and application of risk management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gilliam, David P.; Feather, Martin S.

    2004-01-01

    Information Technology (IT) Security Risk Management is a critical task in the organization, which must protect its resources and data against the loss of confidentiality, integrity, and availability. As systems become more complex and diverse, and more vulnerabilities are discovered while attacks from intrusions and malicious content increase, it is becoming increasingly difficult to manage IT security. This paper describes an approach to address IT security risk through risk management and mitigation in both the institution and in the project life cycle.

  18. Adaptive Management of Ecosystems

    EPA Science Inventory

    Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management. As such, management may be treated as experiment, with replication, or management may be conducted in an iterative manner. Although the concept has resonated with many...

  19. A resilience perspective to water risk management: case-study application of the adaptation tipping point method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gersonius, Berry; Ashley, Richard; Jeuken, Ad; Nasruddin, Fauzy; Pathirana, Assela; Zevenbergen, Chris

    2010-05-01

    In a context of high uncertainty about hydrological variables due to climate change and other factors, the development of updated risk management approaches is as important as—if not more important than—the provision of improved data and forecasts of the future. Traditional approaches to adaptation attempt to manage future water risks to cities with the use of the predict-then-adapt method. This method uses hydrological change projections as the starting point to identify adaptive strategies, which is followed by analysing the cause-effect chain based on some sort of Pressures-State-Impact-Response (PSIR) scheme. The predict-then-adapt method presumes that it is possible to define a singular (optimal) adaptive strategy according to a most likely or average projection of future change. A key shortcoming of the method is, however, that the planning of water management structures is typically decoupled from forecast uncertainties and is, as such, inherently inflexible. This means that there is an increased risk of under- or over-adaptation, resulting in either mal-functioning or unnecessary costs. Rather than taking a traditional approach, responsible water risk management requires an alternative approach to adaptation that recognises and cultivates resiliency for change. The concept of resiliency relates to the capability of complex socio-technical systems to make aspirational levels of functioning attainable despite the occurrence of possible changes. Focusing on resiliency does not attempt to reduce uncertainty associated with future change, but rather to develop better ways of managing it. This makes it a particularly relevant perspective for adaptation to long-term hydrological change. Although resiliency is becoming more refined as a theory, the application of the concept to water risk management is still in an initial phase. Different methods are used in practice to support the implementation of a resilience-focused approach. Typically these approaches

  20. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters in a Changing Climate: Lessons for Adaptation to Climate Change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mastrandrea, M.; Field, C. B.; Mach, K. J.; Barros, V.

    2013-12-01

    The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, published in 2012, integrates expertise in climate science, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation to inform discussions on how to reduce and manage the risks of extreme events and disasters in a changing climate. Impacts and the risks of disasters are determined by the interaction of the physical characteristics of weather and climate events with the vulnerability of exposed human society and ecosystems. The Special Report evaluates the factors that make people and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme events, trends in disaster losses, recent and future changes in the relationship between climate change and extremes, and experience with a wide range of options used by institutions, organizations, and communities to reduce exposure and vulnerability, and improve resilience, to climate extremes. Actions ranging from incremental improvements in governance and technology to more transformational changes are assessed. The Special Report provides a knowledge base that is also relevant to the broader context of managing the risks of climate change through mitigation, adaptation, and other responses, assessed in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), to be completed in 2014. These themes include managing risks through an iterative process involving learning about risks and the effectiveness of responses, employing a portfolio of actions tailored to local circumstances but with links from local to global scales, and considering additional benefits of actions such as improving livelihoods and well-being. The Working Group II contribution to the AR5 also examines the ways that extreme events and their impacts contribute to understanding of vulnerabilities and adaptation deficits in the context of climate change, the extent to which impacts of climate change are experienced through changes in the frequency and severity of extremes as opposed to mean changes

  1. Impacts Of Climate Change On Ecosystems Management In Africa: An Assessment Of Disaster Risk Management And Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ndebele-Murisa, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    This paper is a synthesis of eight studies which demonstrate the interface between disaster risk management (DRM) and adaptation. The studies; conducted from November 2011 to July 2012 included diverse ecosystems from forests, coastlines, rural areas to a lake region and showed that climate change/variability are major factors among other factors such as deforestation and land degradation, unsustainable land use practices, overharvesting of natural products and invasive species encroachment that are causing changes in ecosystems. The most common extreme events reported included shifts in and shorter rainfall seasons, extended droughts, increased temperatures, extreme heat, heavy rainfall, flooding, inundation, strong winds and sea level rises. As a result of these climate phenomena, adverse impacts on ecosystems and communities were reported as biodiversity loss, reduced fish catch, reduced water for forests/agriculture/consumption, increased rough waves, coastal erosion/sediment deposition and lastly land/mud slides in order of commonality. In response to these impacts communities are practicing coping and adaptation strategies but there is a huge gap between proper DRM and adaptation. This is mainly because the adaptation is practiced as an aftermath with very little effort propelled towards proactive DRM or preparedness. In addition, national level policies are archaic and do not address the current environmental changes. This was demonstrated in Togo where wood energy potential is deteriorating at an unprecedented rate but is projected to increase between 6.4% and 101% in the near and far future if the national forest action plans are implemented; preventing an energy crisis in the country. This shows that appropriate legal and policy frameworks and well planned responses to projected extreme events and climate changes are crucial in order to prevent disasters and to achieve sustainable utilisation of resources in the continent.

  2. Avoiding the Water-Climate-Poverty Trap: Adaptive Risk Management for Bangladesh's Coastal Embankments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hall, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    Our recent research on water security (Sadoff et al., 2015, Dadson et al., 2015) has revealed the dynamic relationship between water security and human well-being. A version of this dynamic is materialising in the coastal polder areas of Khulna, Bangladesh. Repeated coastal floods increase salinity, wipe out agricultural yields for several years and increase out-migration. As a tool to help inform and target future cycles of investment in improvements to the coastal embankments, in this paper we propose a dynamical model of biophysical processes and human well-being, which downscales our previous research to the Khulna region. State variables in the model include agricultural production, population, life expectancy and child mortality. Possible infrastructure interventions include embankment improvements, groundwater wells and drainage infrastructure. Hazard factors include flooding, salinization and drinking water pollution. Our system model can be used to inform adaptation decision making by testing the dynamical response of the system to a range of possible policy interventions, under uncertain future conditions. The analysis is intended to target investment and enable adaptive resource reallocation based on learning about the system response to interventions over the seven years of our research programme. The methodology and paper will demonstrate the complex interplay of factors that determine system vulnerability to climate change. The role of climate change uncertainties (in terms of mean sea level rise and storm surge frequency) will be evaluated alongside multiple other uncertain factors that determine system response. Adaptive management in a 'learning system' will be promoted as a mechanism for coping with climate uncertainties. References:Dadson, S., Hall, J.W., Garrick, D., Sadoff, C. and Grey, D. Water security, risk and economic growth: lessons from a dynamical systems model, Global Environmental Change, in review.Sadoff, C.W., Hall, J.W., Grey, D

  3. Risk management.

    PubMed

    Chambers, David W

    2010-01-01

    Every plan contains risk. To proceed without planning some means of managing that risk is to court failure. The basic logic of risk is explained. It consists in identifying a threshold where some corrective action is necessary, the probability of exceeding that threshold, and the attendant cost should the undesired outcome occur. This is the probable cost of failure. Various risk categories in dentistry are identified, including lack of liquidity; poor quality; equipment or procedure failures; employee slips; competitive environments; new regulations; unreliable suppliers, partners, and patients; and threats to one's reputation. It is prudent to make investments in risk management to the extent that the cost of managing the risk is less than the probable loss due to risk failure and when risk management strategies can be matched to type of risk. Four risk management strategies are discussed: insurance, reducing the probability of failure, reducing the costs of failure, and learning. A risk management accounting of the financial meltdown of October 2008 is provided. PMID:21314051

  4. Integrating land cover modeling and adaptive management to conserve endangered species and reduce catastrophic fire risk

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Breininger, David; Duncan, Brean; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Johnson, Fred; Nichols, James

    2014-01-01

    Land cover modeling is used to inform land management, but most often via a two-step process, where science informs how management alternatives can influence resources, and then, decision makers can use this information to make decisions. A more efficient process is to directly integrate science and decision-making, where science allows us to learn in order to better accomplish management objectives and is developed to address specific decisions. Co-development of management and science is especially productive when decisions are complicated by multiple objectives and impeded by uncertainty. Multiple objectives can be met by the specification of tradeoffs, and relevant uncertainty can be addressed through targeted science (i.e., models and monitoring). We describe how to integrate habitat and fuel monitoring with decision-making focused on the dual objectives of managing for endangered species and minimizing catastrophic fire risk. Under certain conditions, both objectives might be achieved by a similar management policy; other conditions require tradeoffs between objectives. Knowledge about system responses to actions can be informed by developing hypotheses based on ideas about fire behavior and then applying competing management actions to different land units in the same system state. Monitoring and management integration is important to optimize state-specific management decisions and to increase knowledge about system responses. We believe this approach has broad utility and identifies a clear role for land cover modeling programs intended to inform decision-making.

  5. Risk-adaptive radiotherapy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Yusung

    Currently, there is great interest in integrating biological information into intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) treatment planning with the aim of boosting high-risk tumor subvolumes. Selective boosting of tumor subvolumes can be accomplished without violating normal tissue complication constraints using information from functional imaging. In this work we have developed a risk-adaptive optimization-framework that utilizes a nonlinear biological objective function. Employing risk-adaptive radiotherapy for prostate cancer, it is possible to increase the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) by up to 35.4 Gy in tumor subvolumes having the highest risk classification without increasing normal tissue complications. Subsequently, we have studied the impact of functional imaging accuracy, and found on the one hand that loss in sensitivity had a large impact on expected local tumor control, which was maximal when a low-risk classification for the remaining low risk PTV was chosen. While on the other hand loss in specificity appeared to have a minimal impact on normal tissue sparing. Therefore, it appears that in order to improve the therapeutic ratio a functional imaging technique with a high sensitivity, rather than specificity, is needed. Last but not least a comparison study between selective boosting IMRT strategies and uniform-boosting IMRT strategies yielding the same EUD to the overall PTV was carried out, and found that selective boosting IMRT considerably improves expected TCP compared to uniform-boosting IMRT, especially when lack of control of the high-risk tumor subvolumes is the cause of expected therapy failure. Furthermore, while selective boosting IMRT, using physical dose-volume objectives, did yield similar rectal and bladder sparing when compared its equivalent uniform-boosting IMRT plan, risk-adaptive radiotherapy, utilizing biological objective functions, did yield a 5.3% reduction in NTCP for the rectum. Hence, in risk-adaptive radiotherapy the

  6. Adaptive management: Chapter 1

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management where knowledge is incomplete, and when, despite inherent uncertainty, managers and policymakers must act. Unlike a traditional trial and error approach, adaptive management has explicit structure, including a careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. The process is iterative, and serves to reduce uncertainty, build knowledge and improve management over time in a goal-oriented and structured process.

  7. Risk-Adapted Management of Acute Pulmonary Embolism: Recent Evidence, New Guidelines

    PubMed Central

    Käberich, Anja; Wärntges, Simone; Konstantinides, Stavros

    2014-01-01

    Venous thromboembolism (VTE), the third most frequent acute cardiovascular syndrome, may cause life-threatening complications and imposes a substantial socio-economic burden. During the past years, several landmark trials paved the way towards novel strategies in acute and long-term management of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). Risk stratification is increasingly recognized as a cornerstone for an adequate diagnostic and therapeutic management of the highly heterogeneous population of patients with acute PE. Recently published European Guidelines emphasize the importance of clinical prediction rules in combination with imaging procedures (assessment of right ventricular function) and laboratory biomarkers (indicative of myocardial stress or injury) for identification of normotensive PE patients at intermediate risk for an adverse short-term outcome. In this patient group, systemic full-dose thrombolysis was associated with a significantly increased risk of intracranial bleeding, a complication which discourages its clinical application unless hemodynamic decompensation occurs. A large-scale clinical trial program evaluating new oral anticoagulants in the initial and long-term treatment of venous thromboembolism showed at least comparable efficacy and presumably increased safety of these drugs compared to the current standard treatment. Research is continuing on catheter-directed, ultrasound-assisted, local, low-dose thrombolysis in the management of intermediate-risk PE. PMID:25386356

  8. Extreme weather events: Should drinking water quality management systems adapt to changing risk profiles?

    PubMed

    Khan, Stuart J; Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Jenkins, Madeleine; Cunliffe, David

    2015-11-15

    Among the most widely predicted and accepted consequences of global climate change are increases in both the frequency and severity of a variety of extreme weather events. Such weather events include heavy rainfall and floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves, extreme cold, and wildfires, each of which can potentially impact drinking water quality by affecting water catchments, storage reservoirs, the performance of water treatment processes or the integrity of distribution systems. Drinking water guidelines, such as the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and the World Health Organization Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, provide guidance for the safe management of drinking water. These documents present principles and strategies for managing risks that may be posed to drinking water quality. While these principles and strategies are applicable to all types of water quality risks, very little specific attention has been paid to the management of extreme weather events. We present a review of recent literature on water quality impacts of extreme weather events and consider practical opportunities for improved guidance for water managers. We conclude that there is a case for an enhanced focus on the management of water quality impacts from extreme weather events in future revisions of water quality guidance documents. PMID:26311274

  9. Extreme weather events: Should drinking water quality management systems adapt to changing risk profiles?

    PubMed

    Khan, Stuart J; Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Jenkins, Madeleine; Cunliffe, David

    2015-11-15

    Among the most widely predicted and accepted consequences of global climate change are increases in both the frequency and severity of a variety of extreme weather events. Such weather events include heavy rainfall and floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves, extreme cold, and wildfires, each of which can potentially impact drinking water quality by affecting water catchments, storage reservoirs, the performance of water treatment processes or the integrity of distribution systems. Drinking water guidelines, such as the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and the World Health Organization Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, provide guidance for the safe management of drinking water. These documents present principles and strategies for managing risks that may be posed to drinking water quality. While these principles and strategies are applicable to all types of water quality risks, very little specific attention has been paid to the management of extreme weather events. We present a review of recent literature on water quality impacts of extreme weather events and consider practical opportunities for improved guidance for water managers. We conclude that there is a case for an enhanced focus on the management of water quality impacts from extreme weather events in future revisions of water quality guidance documents.

  10. How rural land use management facilitates drought risk adaptation in a changing climate - A case study in arid northern China.

    PubMed

    Lei, Yongdeng; Zhang, Hailin; Chen, Fu; Zhang, Linbo

    2016-04-15

    Under a warming climate, frequent drought and water scarcity in northern China have severely disrupted agricultural production and posed a substantial threat to farmers' livelihoods. Based on first-hand data collected through in-depth interviews with local managers and farmer households, this study evaluated the effectiveness of rural land use management in mitigating drought risk, ensuring food security and improving farmers' livelihoods. Our findings indicate that a) reforestation on low-yield cropland not only can improve the eco-environment but can also prominently mitigate the production risk to local farmers; b) replacing the traditional border irrigation with sprinkler irrigation has substantially curbed agricultural water usage and increased the per unit of output; and c) in recent years, instead of planting water-intensive grain crops, local farmers cultivated more forage crops to raise animals, which greatly diversified their income sources and reduced the drought risk of agricultural production. By performing an empirical case study in drought-prone Inner Mongolia, this study provides decision-makers with insights into how to strategically adapt to drought risk and reduce rural poverty within the broader context of climate change.

  11. How rural land use management facilitates drought risk adaptation in a changing climate - A case study in arid northern China.

    PubMed

    Lei, Yongdeng; Zhang, Hailin; Chen, Fu; Zhang, Linbo

    2016-04-15

    Under a warming climate, frequent drought and water scarcity in northern China have severely disrupted agricultural production and posed a substantial threat to farmers' livelihoods. Based on first-hand data collected through in-depth interviews with local managers and farmer households, this study evaluated the effectiveness of rural land use management in mitigating drought risk, ensuring food security and improving farmers' livelihoods. Our findings indicate that a) reforestation on low-yield cropland not only can improve the eco-environment but can also prominently mitigate the production risk to local farmers; b) replacing the traditional border irrigation with sprinkler irrigation has substantially curbed agricultural water usage and increased the per unit of output; and c) in recent years, instead of planting water-intensive grain crops, local farmers cultivated more forage crops to raise animals, which greatly diversified their income sources and reduced the drought risk of agricultural production. By performing an empirical case study in drought-prone Inner Mongolia, this study provides decision-makers with insights into how to strategically adapt to drought risk and reduce rural poverty within the broader context of climate change. PMID:26815296

  12. Classification and assessment of water bodies as adaptive structural measures for flood risk management planning.

    PubMed

    McMinn, William R; Yang, Qinli; Scholz, Miklas

    2010-09-01

    Severe rainfall events have become increasingly common in Europe. Flood defence engineering works are highly capital intensive and can be limited by land availability, leaving land and communities exposed to repeated flooding. Any adaptive drainage structure must have engineered inlets and outlets that control the water level and the rate of release. In Scotland, there are a relatively high number of drinking water reservoirs (operated by Scottish Water), which fall within this defined category and could contribute to flood management control. Reducing the rate of runoff from the upper reaches of a catchment will reduce the volume and peak flows of flood events downstream, thus allowing flood defences to be reduced in size, decreasing the corresponding capital costs. A database of retention basins with flood control potential has been developed for Scotland. The research shows that the majority of small and former drinking water reservoirs are kept full and their spillways are continuously in operation. Utilising some of the available capacity to contribute to flood control could reduce the costs of complying with the EU Flood Directive. Furthermore, the application of a previously developed classification model for Baden in Germany for the Scottish data set showed a lower diversity for basins in Scotland due to less developed infrastructure. The principle value of this approach is a clear and unambiguous categorisation, based on standard variables, which can help to promote communication and understanding between stakeholders.

  13. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

    SciTech Connect

    Field, C.B.; Barros, V.; Stocker, T.F.

    2012-07-01

    This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decision making under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management. The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies. (LN)

  14. The Women's Role in the Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change: Its Contribution to the Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quintero Angel, M.; Carvajal Escobar, Y.; Garcia Vargas, M.

    2007-05-01

    Recently, there is evidence of an increase in the amount of severity in extreme events associated with the climate variability or climate change; which demonstrates that climate in this planet is changing. There is an observation of increasing damages, and of social economical cost associated with these phenomena's, mostly do to more people are living in hazard vulnerable conditions. The victims of natural disasters have increase from 147 to 211 million between 1991 and 2000. In same way more than 665.000 people have died in 2557 natural disasters, which 90% are associated with water and climate. (UNESCO & WWAP, 2003). The actual tendency and the introduction of new factors of risk, suggest lost increase in the future, obligating actions to manage and reduce risk of disaster. Bind work, health, poverty, education, water, climate, and disasters is not an error, is an obligation. Vulnerability of society to natural hazards and to poverty are bond, to reduce the risk of disasters is frequently united with the reduction of poverty and in the other way too (Sen, 2000). In this context, extreme events impact societies in all the world, affecting differently men and women, do to the different roles they play in the society, the different access in the control of resources, the few participation that women have in taking decisions with preparedness, mitigation, rehabilitation of disasters, impacting more women in developing countries. Although, women understand better the causes and local consequences in changes of climate conditions. They have a pile of knowledge and abilities for guiding adaptation, playing a very important role in vulnerable communities. This work shows how these topics connect with the millennium development goals; particularly how it affects its accomplishment. It also describes the impact of climate variability and climate change in developing countries. Analyzing adaptation responses that are emerging; especially from women initiation.

  15. Adaptive Learning and Risk Taking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Denrell, Jerker

    2007-01-01

    Humans and animals learn from experience by reducing the probability of sampling alternatives with poor past outcomes. Using simulations, J. G. March (1996) illustrated how such adaptive sampling could lead to risk-averse as well as risk-seeking behavior. In this article, the author develops a formal theory of how adaptive sampling influences risk…

  16. NASA's Risk Management System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2011-01-01

    Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  17. NASA's Risk Management System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2013-01-01

    Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  18. Managing Risks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Osborn, John E.

    2006-01-01

    Colleges and universities face a wide range of environmental risk. In spite of this, with proper planning, they can avoid emergencies or surprises. Advanced planning, coupled with strategic, technical environmental and legal advice, enable higher-education institutions to keep their environmental budgets under control and predictable. This article…

  19. Risk management integration into complex project organizations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fisher, K.; Greanias, G.; Rose, J.; Dumas, R.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the approach used in designing and adapting the SIRTF prototype, discusses some of the lessons learned in developing the SIRTF prototype, and explains the adaptability of the risk management database to varying levels project complexity.

  20. Project Risk Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jr., R. F. Miles

    1995-01-01

    Project risk management is primarily concerned with performance, reliability, cost, and schedule. Environmental risk management is primarily concerned with human health and ecological hazards and likelihoods. This paper discusses project risk management and compares it to environmental risk management, both with respect to goals and implementation. The approach of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to risk management is presented as an example of a project risk management approach that is an extension to NASA NHB 7120.5: Management of Major System Programs and Projects.

  1. Risk Management in EVA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Jonathan; Lutomski, M.

    2006-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the use of risk management in Extravehicular Activities (EVA). The contents include: 1) EVA Office at NASA - JSC; 2) EVA Project Risk Management: Why and When; 3) EVA Office Risk Management: How; 4) Criteria for Closing a Risk; 5) Criteria for Accepting a Risk; 6) ISS IRMA Reference Card Data Entry Requirement s; 7) XA/ EVA Office Risk Activity Summary; 8) EVA Significant Change Summary; 9) Integrated Risk Management Application (XA) Matrix, March 31, 2004; 10) ISS Watch Item: 50XX Summary Report; and 11) EVA Project RM Usefulness

  2. Risk Management and Prevention.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Letzring, Timothy D.

    1999-01-01

    Schools cannot eliminate all risks but can manage them so they minimally affect the "bottom line." A sound risk-management program has four categories: risk avoidance, control, transfer, and retention. Schools retain some risk in situations when insurance is unavailable, costs are negligible, or loss probabilities are remote. (MLH)

  3. Hydropower, Adaptive Management, and Biodiversity

    PubMed

    WIERINGA; MORTON

    1996-11-01

    / Adaptive management is a policy framework within which an iterative process of decision making is followed based on the observed responses to and effectiveness of previous decisions. The use of adaptive management allows science-based research and monitoring of natural resource and ecological community responses, in conjunction with societal values and goals, to guide decisions concerning man's activities. The adaptive management process has been proposed for application to hydropower operations at Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River, a situation that requires complex balancing of natural resources requirements and competing human uses. This example is representative of the general increase in public interest in the operation of hydropower facilities and possible effects on downstream natural resources and of the growing conflicts between uses and users of river-based resources. This paper describes the adaptive management process, using the Glen Canyon Dam example, and discusses ways to make the process work effectively in managing downstream natural resources and biodiversity. KEY WORDS: Adaptive management; Biodiversity; Hydropower; Glen Canyon Dam; Ecology

  4. A holistic strategy for adaptive land management

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management. Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adapta...

  5. [Global risk management].

    PubMed

    Sghaier, W; Hergon, E; Desroches, A

    2015-08-01

    Risk management is a fundamental component of any successful company, whether it is in economic, societal or environmental aspect. Risk management is an especially important activity for companies that optimal security challenge of products and services is great. This is the case especially for the health sector institutions. Risk management is therefore a decision support tool and a means to ensure the sustainability of an organization. In this context, what methods and approaches implemented to manage the risks? Through this state of the art, we are interested in the concept of risk and risk management processes. Then we focus on the different methods of risk management and the criteria for choosing among these methods. Finally we highlight the need to supplement these methods by a systemic and global approach including through risk assessment by the audits.

  6. Adaptive management: Promises and pitfalls

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McLain, Rebecca J.; Lee, Robert G.

    1996-07-01

    Proponents of the scientific adaptive management approach argue that it increases knowledge acquisition rates, enhances information flow among policy actors, and provides opportunities for creating shared understandings. However, evidence from efforts to implement the approach in New Brunswick, British Columbia, Canada, and the Columbia River Basin indicates that these promises have not been met. The data show that scientific adaptive management relies excessively on the use of linear systems models, discounts nonscientific forms of knowledge, and pays inadequate attention to policy processes that promote the development of shared understandings among diverse stakeholders. To be effective, new adaptive management efforts will need to incorporate knowledge from multiple sources, make use of multiple systems models, and support new forms of cooperation among stakeholders.

  7. Risk Management Implementation Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, Shayla L.

    2004-01-01

    Continuous Risk Management (CM) is a software engineering practice with processes, methods, and tools for managing risk in a project. It provides a controlled environment for practical decision making, in order to assess continually what could go wrong, determine which risk are important to deal with, implement strategies to deal with those risk and assure the measure effectiveness of the implemented strategies. Continuous Risk Management provides many training workshops and courses to teach the staff how to implement risk management to their various experiments and projects. The steps of the CRM process are identification, analysis, planning, tracking, and control. These steps and the various methods and tools that go along with them, identification, and dealing with risk is clear-cut. The office that I worked in was the Risk Management Office (RMO). The RMO at NASA works hard to uphold NASA s mission of exploration and advancement of scientific knowledge and technology by defining and reducing program risk. The RMO is one of the divisions that fall under the Safety and Assurance Directorate (SAAD). I worked under Cynthia Calhoun, Flight Software Systems Engineer. My task was to develop a help screen for the Continuous Risk Management Implementation Tool (RMIT). The Risk Management Implementation Tool will be used by many NASA managers to identify, analyze, track, control, and communicate risks in their programs and projects. The RMIT will provide a means for NASA to continuously assess risks. The goals and purposes for this tool is to provide a simple means to manage risks, be used by program and project managers throughout NASA for managing risk, and to take an aggressive approach to advertise and advocate the use of RMIT at each NASA center.

  8. Hydropower, adaptive management, and biodiversity

    SciTech Connect

    Wieringa, M.J.; Morton, A.G.

    1996-11-01

    Adaptive management is a policy framework within which an iterative process of decision making is allowed based on the observed responses to and effectiveness of previous decisions. The use of adaptive management allows science-based research and monitoring of natural resource and ecological community responses, in conjunction with societal values and goals, to guide decisions concerning man`s activities. The adaptive management process has been proposed for application to hydropower operations at Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River, a situation that requires complex balancing of natural resources requirements and competing human uses. This example is representative of the general increase in public interest in the operation of hydropower facilities and possible effects on downstream natural resources and of the growing conflicts between uses and users of river-based resources. This paper describes the adaptive management process, using the Glen Canyon Dam example, and discusses ways to make the process work effectively in managing downstream natural resources and biodiversity. 10 refs., 2 figs.

  9. Risk Management Plan

    SciTech Connect

    G. R. Stephenson

    2001-12-01

    The purpose of this Risk Management Plan (RMP) is to establish the concept and define the process to assure that National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Operations Office Environmental Management (NNSA/NV EM) programs and projects incorporate appropriate, efficient, cost-effective measures to mitigate the impact of program-and/or project-related risks. In addition, it describes the roles and responsibilities of program personnel in performing the risk management functions, and defines reporting and tracking requirements for risk-related information. The product of this risk analysis will be a risk analysis report listing the various risks with their classification, mitigation and handling strategies, impact on cost and schedule, and action items. The risk management process will identify potential risk sources; assess individual risks and impacts on performance, cost, and schedule; evaluate alternative approaches to mitigate high and moderate risks; develop action plans to handle individual risks; and interface risks with other programs and/or projects. Risk management and risk assessment will be consistent with DOE Orders 430.1 and 413.3 and their associated guidance documentation. The RMP will remain valid for the life cycle of the program and/or projects and will be under configuration control with revisions to be conducted as required and approved.

  10. Identifying and Managing Risk.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abraham, Janice M.

    1999-01-01

    The role of the college or university chief financial officer in institutional risk management is (1) to identify risk (physical, casualty, fiscal, business, reputational, workplace safety, legal liability, employment practices, general liability), (2) to develop a campus plan to reduce and control risk, (3) to transfer risk, and (4) to track and…

  11. Adaptive management of urban watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garmestani, A.; Shuster, W.; Green, O. O.

    2013-12-01

    Consent decree settlements for violations of the Clean Water Act (1972) increasingly include provisions for redress of combined sewer overflow activity through hybrid approaches that incorporate the best of both gray (e.g., storage tunnels) and green infrastructure (e.g., rain gardens). Adaptive management is an environmental management strategy that uses an iterative process of decision-making to improve environmental management via system monitoring. A central tenet of adaptive management is that management involves a learning process that can help regulated communities achieve environmental quality objectives. We are using an adaptive management approach to guide a green infrastructure retrofit of a neighborhood in the Slavic Village Development Corporation area (Cleveland, Ohio). We are in the process of gathering hydrologic and ecosystem services data and will use this data as a basis for collaboration with area citizens on a plan to use green infrastructure to contain stormflows. Monitoring data provides researchers with feedback on the impact of green infrastructure implementation and suggest where improvements can be made.

  12. Perspectives: Intellectual Risk Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hall, James C.

    2013-01-01

    Ask a college administrator about students and risk management, and you're likely to get a quick and agitated speech about alcohol consumption and bad behavior or a meditation on mental health and campus safety. But in colleges and universities, we manage intellectual risk-taking too. Bring that up, and you'll probably get little out of that same…

  13. Multimodel inference and adaptive management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rehme, S.E.; Powell, L.A.; Allen, C.R.

    2011-01-01

    Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.

  14. Competing risks and the development of adaptive management plans for water resources: Field reconnaissance investigation of risks to fishes and other aquatic biota exposed to endocrine disrupting chemicals (edcs) in lake mead, Nevada USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Linder, G.; Little, E.E.

    2009-01-01

    The analysis and characterization of competing risks for water resources rely on a wide spectrum of tools to evaluate hazards and risks associated with their management. For example, waters of the lower Colorado River stored in reservoirs such as Lake Mead present a wide range of competing risks related to water quantity and water quality. These risks are often interdependent and complicated by competing uses of source waters for sustaining biological resources and for supporting a range of agricultural, municipal, recreational, and industrial uses. USGS is currently conducting a series of interdisciplinary case-studies on water quality of Lake Mead and its source waters. In this case-study we examine selected constituents potentially entering the Lake Mead system, particularly endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). Worldwide, a number of environmental EDCs have been identified that affect reproduction, development, and adaptive behaviors in a wide range of organisms. Many EDCs are minimally affected by current treatment technologies and occur in treated sewage effluents. Several EDCs have been detected in Lake Mead, and several substances have been identified that are of concern because of potential impacts to the aquatic biota, including the sport fishery of Lake Mead and endangered razorback suckers (Xyrauchen texanus) that occur in the Colorado River system. For example, altered biomarkers relevant to reproduction and thyroid function in fishes have been observed and may be predictive of impaired metabolism and development. Few studies, however, have addressed whether such EDC-induced responses observed in the field have an ecologically significant effect on the reproductive success of fishes. To identify potential linkages between EDCs and species of management concern, the risk analysis and characterization in this reconnaissance study focused on effects (and attendant uncertainties) that might be expressed by exposed populations. In addition, risk reduction

  15. Adaptive management of watersheds and related resources

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, Byron K.

    2009-01-01

    The concept of learning about natural resources through the practice of management has been around for several decades and by now is associated with the term adaptive management. The objectives of this paper are to offer a framework for adaptive management that includes an operational definition, a description of conditions in which it can be usefully applied, and a systematic approach to its application. Adaptive decisionmaking is described as iterative, learning-based management in two phases, each with its own mechanisms for feedback and adaptation. The linkages between traditional experimental science and adaptive management are discussed.

  16. Today's School Risk Manager

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Cheryl P.; Levering, Steve

    2009-01-01

    School districts are held accountable not only for the monies that contribute to the education system but also for mitigating any issues that threaten student learning. Some school districts are fortunate to have professional risk managers on staff who can identify and control the many risks that are unique to school systems. Most schools,…

  17. Risk Management: Defusing the Dragon.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ewert, Alan; Boone, Timothy

    1987-01-01

    Discusses risk-management planning from the perspectives of the current state of risk-management, assumption of risk defense, participant and public attitudes, and specific techniques for constructing a risk-management plan. Offers practical suggestions for limiting risk and liability. Provides sample assumption of risk/liability release form.…

  18. A roadmap for climate change adaptation in Sweden's forests: addressing wicked problems using adaptive management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rist, L.; Felton, A.; Samuelsson, L.; Marald, E.; Karlsson, B.; Johansson, U.; Rosvall, O.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have significant direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems. Forests will have to adapt not only to changes in mean climate variables but also to increased climatic variability and altered disturbance regimes. Rates of change will likely exceed many forests capabilities to naturally adapt and many of today's trees will be exposed to the climates of 2090. In Sweden the effects are already being seen and more severe impacts are expected in the future. Exacerbating the challenge posed by climate change, a large proportion of Sweden's forests are, as a consequence of dominant production goals, greatly simplified and thus potentially more vulnerable to the uncertainties and risks associated with climate change. This simplification also confers reduced adaptive capacity to respond to potential impacts. Furthermore, many adaptation measures themselves carry uncertainties and risks. Future changes and effects are thus uncertain, yet forest managers, policymakers, scientists and other stakeholders must act. Strategies that build social and ecological resilience in the face of multiple interacting unknowns and surprises are needed. Adaptive management aims to collect and integrate knowledge about how a managed system is likely to respond to alternative management schemes and changing environmental conditions within a continuous decision process. There have been suggestions that adaptive management is not well suited to the large complex uncertainties associated with climate change and associated adaptation measures. However, more recently it has been suggested that adaptive management can handle such wicked problems, given adequate resources and a suitable breakdown of the targeted uncertainties. Here we test this hypothesis by evaluating how an adaptive management process could be used to manage the uncertainties and risks associated with securing resilient, biodiverse and productive forests in Sweden in the face of climate change. We

  19. A holistic strategy for adaptive land management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Duniway, Michael C.; Pyke, David A.; Bestelmeyer, Brandon T.; Wills, Skye A.; Brown, Joel R.; Karl, Jason W.; Havstad, Kris M.

    2012-01-01

    Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management (Holling 1973; Walters and Holling 1990). Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adaptation of management until desired results are achieved (Brown and MacLeod 1996; Savory and Butterfield 1999). However, adaptive management is often criticized because very few projects ever complete more than one cycle, resulting in little adaptation and little knowledge gain (Lee 1999; Walters 2007). One significant criticism is that adaptive management is often used as a justification for undertaking actions with uncertain outcomes or as a surrogate for the development of specific, measurable indicators and monitoring programs (Lee 1999; Ruhl 2007).

  20. Avoiding the pitfalls of adaptive management implementation in Swedish silviculture.

    PubMed

    Rist, Lucy; Felton, Adam; Mårald, Erland; Samuelsson, Lars; Lundmark, Tomas; Rosvall, Ola

    2016-02-01

    There is a growing demand for alternatives to Sweden's current dominant silvicultural system, driven by a desire to raise biomass production, meet environmental goals and mitigate climate change. However, moving towards diversified forest management that deviates from well established silvicultural practices carries many uncertainties and risks. Adaptive management is often suggested as an effective means of managing in the context of such complexities. Yet there has been scepticism over its appropriateness in cases characterised by large spatial extents, extended temporal scales and complex land ownership-characteristics typical of Swedish forestry. Drawing on published research, including a new paradigm for adaptive management, we indicate how common pitfalls can be avoided during implementation. We indicate the investment, infrastructure, and considerations necessary to benefit from adaptive management. In doing so, we show how this approach could offer a pragmatic operational model for managing the uncertainties, risks and obstacles associated with new silvicultural systems and the challenges facing Swedish forestry. PMID:26744049

  1. Avoiding the pitfalls of adaptive management implementation in Swedish silviculture.

    PubMed

    Rist, Lucy; Felton, Adam; Mårald, Erland; Samuelsson, Lars; Lundmark, Tomas; Rosvall, Ola

    2016-02-01

    There is a growing demand for alternatives to Sweden's current dominant silvicultural system, driven by a desire to raise biomass production, meet environmental goals and mitigate climate change. However, moving towards diversified forest management that deviates from well established silvicultural practices carries many uncertainties and risks. Adaptive management is often suggested as an effective means of managing in the context of such complexities. Yet there has been scepticism over its appropriateness in cases characterised by large spatial extents, extended temporal scales and complex land ownership-characteristics typical of Swedish forestry. Drawing on published research, including a new paradigm for adaptive management, we indicate how common pitfalls can be avoided during implementation. We indicate the investment, infrastructure, and considerations necessary to benefit from adaptive management. In doing so, we show how this approach could offer a pragmatic operational model for managing the uncertainties, risks and obstacles associated with new silvicultural systems and the challenges facing Swedish forestry.

  2. Essential features for proactive risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murashov, Vladimir; Howard, John

    2009-08-01

    We propose a proactive approach to the management of occupational health risks in emerging technologies based on six features: qualitative risk assessment; the ability to adapt strategies and refine requirements; an appropriate level of precaution; global applicability; the ability to elicit voluntary cooperation by companies; and stakeholder involvement.

  3. Risk management in surgery

    PubMed Central

    MESSANO, G.A.; SPAZIANI, E.; TURCHETTA, F.; CECI, F.; CORELLI, S.; CASCIARO, G.; MARTELLUCCI, A.; COSTANTINO, A.; NAPOLEONI, A.; CIPRIANI, B.; NICODEMI, S.; DI GRAZIA, C.; MOSILLO, R.; AVALLONE, M.; ORSINI, S.; TUDISCO, A.; AIUTI, F.; STAGNITTI, F.

    2013-01-01

    Summary Malpractice is the responsible for the greatest number of legal claims. At the present time, legal actions against physicians in Italy are 15,000 per year, and a stunning increase about costs to refund patients injured by therapeutic and diagnostic errors is expected. The method for the medical prevention is “Risk Management”, that is the setting-up of organizational instruments, methods and actions that enable the measurement or estimation of medical risk; it allows to develop strategies to govern and reduce medical error. In the present work, the reconstruction about the history of risk management in Italy was carried out. After then the latest initiatives undertaken by Italy about the issue of risk management were examined. PMID:24091181

  4. Managing risk at Hanford

    SciTech Connect

    Hesser, W.A.; Stillwell, W.G.; Rutherford, W.A.

    1994-03-01

    Clearly, there is sufficient motivation from Washington for the Hanford community to pay particular attention to the risks associated with the substantial volumes of radiological, hazardous, and mixed waste at Hanford. But there is also another reason for emphasizing risk: Hanford leaders have come to realize that their decisions must consider risk and risk reduction if those decisions are to be technically sound, financially affordable, and publicly acceptable. The 560-square miles of desert land is worth only a few thousand dollars an acre (if that) -- hardly enough to justify the almost two billion dollars that will be spent at Hanford this year. The benefit of cleaning up the Hanford Site is not the land but the reduction of potential risk to the public and the environment for future generations. If risk reduction is our ultimate goal, decisions about priority of effort and resource allocation must consider those risks, now and in the future. The purpose of this paper is to describe how Hanford is addressing the issues of risk assessment, risk management, and risk-based decision making and to share some of our experiences in these areas.

  5. Children's Aquatics: Managing the Risk.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Langendorfer, Stephen; And Others

    1989-01-01

    This article identifies the major risks faced by young children in aquatic programs, outlines several methods for managing risk factors, and discusses the steps involved in implementing a risk-management system. (IAH)

  6. Integrated risk management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hunsucker, J. L.

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to first present a basis or foundation for the building of an integrated risk management plan and them to present the plan. The integration referred to is across both the temporal and the hierarchical dimensions. Complexity, consequence, and credibility seem to be driving the need for the consideration of risk. Reduction of personal bias and reproducibility of the decision making process seem to be driving the consideration of a formal risk plan. While risk can be used as either a selection tool or a control tool, this paper concentrates on the selection usage. Risk relies on stated purpose. The tightness of the definition of purpose and success is directly reflected in the definition and control of risk. Much of a risk management plan could be designed by the answers to the questions of why, what, who, when, and where. However, any plan must provide the following information about a threat or risk: likelihood, consequence, predictability, reliability, and reproducibility. While the environment at NASA is seen as warm, but not hot, for the introduction of a risk program, some encouragement is seen if the following problems are addressed: no champion, no commitment of resource, confused definitions, lack of direction and focus, a hard sell, NASA culture, many choices of assessment methods, and cost. The plan is designed to follow the normal method of doing work and is structured to follow either the work break down structure or a functional structure very well. The parts of the plan include: defining purpose and success, initial threat assessment, initial risk assessment, reconciling threats and parameters, putting part of the information down and factoring the information back into the decision process as it comes back up, and developing inferences. Two major suggestions are presented. One is to build an office of risk management to be used as a resource by managers in doing the risk process. Another is to form a pilot program to try

  7. Navigator program risk management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wessen, Randii R.; Padilla, Deborah A.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, program risk management as applied to the Navigator Program: In Search of New Worlds will be discussed. The Navigator Program's goals are to learn how planetary systems form and to search for those worlds that could or do harbor life.

  8. Continuous Risk Management: An Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosenberg, Linda; Hammer, Theodore F.

    1999-01-01

    Software risk management is important because it helps avoid disasters, rework, and overkill, but more importantly because it stimulates win-win situations. The objectives of software risk management are to identify, address, and eliminate software risk items before they become threats to success or major sources of rework. In general, good project managers are also good managers of risk. It makes good business sense for all software development projects to incorporate risk management as part of project management. The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to implement risk management. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This is an introductory tutorial to continuous risk management based on this course. The rational for continuous risk management and how it is incorporated into project management are discussed. The risk management structure of six functions is discussed in sufficient depth for managers to understand what is involved in risk management and how it is implemented. These functions include: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions.

  9. Adaptive management for a turbulent future.

    PubMed

    Allen, Craig R; Fontaine, Joseph J; Pope, Kevin L; Garmestani, Ahjond S

    2011-05-01

    The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate

  10. Adaptive management for a turbulent future

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, C.R.; Fontaine, J.J.; Pope, K.L.; Garmestani, A.S.

    2011-01-01

    The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate

  11. Adaptive Management for a Turbulent Future

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, Craig R.; Fontaine, Joseph J.; Pope, Kevin L.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

    2011-01-01

    The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate

  12. Geochemical risk assessment of a case study of climate change adaptation policy: the managed realignment of an island in the Gironde Estuary (SW France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanovsky, Anastasia; Coynel, Alexandra; Kessaci, Kahina; Kervella, Stéphane; Curti, Cécile; Sottolichio, Aldo; Blanc, Gérard

    2014-05-01

    winter submersion events the studied soils would act as Cd sinks, adsorption being the dominating process. Coupling Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) and 2 multi-parameters probes (OBS and SMATCH) during 2 spring-tide cycles allowed estimating residual metal fluxes, suggesting that under these conditions the Ile Nouvelle acts as a metal sink receiving ~5 kg of Cd, 440 kg of Cu et 480 kg of As. A bathymetry mapping of the corridor (mechanical erosion of the de-poldering area) was used to estimate the annual sedimentary and metals fluxes exported due to its erosion. Annual fluxes related to corridor erosion, compared to fluxes into the Gironde Estuary are significant for Cu and As. With climate change adaptation policies, managed realignment is becoming more common in the future. Consequently, it will be necessary before this management policy to assess the geochemical risk of the re-inundation of formerly embanked soils.

  13. 50 CFR 218.241 - Adaptive management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 10 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Adaptive management. 218.241 Section 218.241 Wildlife and Fisheries NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC... Low Frequency Active (SURTASS LFA) Sonar § 218.241 Adaptive management. NMFS may modify...

  14. Is adaptive co-management ethical?

    PubMed

    Fennell, David; Plummer, Ryan; Marschke, Melissa

    2008-07-01

    'Good' governance and adaptive co-management hold broad appeal due to their positive connotations and 'noble ethical claims'. This paper poses a fundamental question: is adaptive co-management ethical? In pursuing an answer to this question, the concept of adaptive co-management is succinctly summarized and three ethical perspectives (deontology, teleology and existentialism) are explored. The case of adaptive co-management in Cambodia is described and subsequently considered through the lens of ethical triangulation. The case illuminates important ethical considerations and directs attention towards the need for meditative thinking which increases the value of tradition, ecology, and culture. Giving ethics a central position makes clear the potential for adaptive co-management to be an agent for governance, which is good, right and authentic as well as an arena to embrace uncertainty. PMID:17391840

  15. Is adaptive co-management ethical?

    PubMed

    Fennell, David; Plummer, Ryan; Marschke, Melissa

    2008-07-01

    'Good' governance and adaptive co-management hold broad appeal due to their positive connotations and 'noble ethical claims'. This paper poses a fundamental question: is adaptive co-management ethical? In pursuing an answer to this question, the concept of adaptive co-management is succinctly summarized and three ethical perspectives (deontology, teleology and existentialism) are explored. The case of adaptive co-management in Cambodia is described and subsequently considered through the lens of ethical triangulation. The case illuminates important ethical considerations and directs attention towards the need for meditative thinking which increases the value of tradition, ecology, and culture. Giving ethics a central position makes clear the potential for adaptive co-management to be an agent for governance, which is good, right and authentic as well as an arena to embrace uncertainty.

  16. Risk sensitivity as an evolutionary adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Hintze, Arend; Olson, Randal S.; Adami, Christoph; Hertwig, Ralph

    2015-01-01

    Risk aversion is a common behavior universal to humans and animals alike. Economists have traditionally defined risk preferences by the curvature of the utility function. Psychologists and behavioral economists also make use of concepts such as loss aversion and probability weighting to model risk aversion. Neurophysiological evidence suggests that loss aversion has its origins in relatively ancient neural circuitries (e.g., ventral striatum). Could there thus be an evolutionary origin to risk aversion? We study this question by evolving strategies that adapt to play the equivalent mean payoff gamble. We hypothesize that risk aversion in this gamble is beneficial as an adaptation to living in small groups, and find that a preference for risk averse strategies only evolves in small populations of less than 1,000 individuals, or in populations segmented into groups of 150 individuals or fewer – numbers thought to be comparable to what humans encountered in the past. We observe that risk aversion only evolves when the gamble is a rare event that has a large impact on the individual's fitness. As such, we suggest that rare, high-risk, high-payoff events such as mating and mate competition could have driven the evolution of risk averse behavior in humans living in small groups. PMID:25649757

  17. Risk sensitivity as an evolutionary adaptation.

    PubMed

    Hintze, Arend; Olson, Randal S; Adami, Christoph; Hertwig, Ralph

    2015-01-01

    Risk aversion is a common behavior universal to humans and animals alike. Economists have traditionally defined risk preferences by the curvature of the utility function. Psychologists and behavioral economists also make use of concepts such as loss aversion and probability weighting to model risk aversion. Neurophysiological evidence suggests that loss aversion has its origins in relatively ancient neural circuitries (e.g., ventral striatum). Could there thus be an evolutionary origin to risk aversion? We study this question by evolving strategies that adapt to play the equivalent mean payoff gamble. We hypothesize that risk aversion in this gamble is beneficial as an adaptation to living in small groups, and find that a preference for risk averse strategies only evolves in small populations of less than 1,000 individuals, or in populations segmented into groups of 150 individuals or fewer - numbers thought to be comparable to what humans encountered in the past. We observe that risk aversion only evolves when the gamble is a rare event that has a large impact on the individual's fitness. As such, we suggest that rare, high-risk, high-payoff events such as mating and mate competition could have driven the evolution of risk averse behavior in humans living in small groups.

  18. Risk management frameworks for human health and environmental risks.

    PubMed

    Jardine, Cindy; Hrudey, Steve; Shortreed, John; Craig, Lorraine; Krewski, Daniel; Furgal, Chris; McColl, Stephen

    2003-01-01

    (formative, process, and outcome evaluation), and be prepared to change the decision if new information becomes available. Comprehensive and sound principles are critical to providing structure and integrity to risk management frameworks. Guiding principles are intended to provide an ethical grounding for considering the many factors involved in risk management decision making. Ten principles are proposed to guide risk management decision making. The first four principles were adapted and modified from Hattis (1996) along with the addition of two more principles by Hrudey (2000). These have been supplemented by another four principles to make the 10 presented. The principles are based in fundamental ethical principles and values. These principles are intended to be aspirational rather than prescriptive--their application requires flexibility and practical judgement. Risk management is inherently a process in search of balance among competing interests and concerns. Each risk management decision will be "balancing act" of competing priorities, and trade-offs may sometimes have to be made between seemingly conflicting principles. The 10 decision-making principles, with the corresponding ethical principle in italics are: 1. Do more good than harm (beneficence, nonmalificence).- The ultimate goal of good risk management is to prevent or minimize risk, or to "do good" as much as possible. 2. Fair process of decision making (fairness, natural justice). - Risk management must be just, equitable, impartial, unbiased, dispassionate, and objective as far as possible given the circumstances of each situation. 3. Ensure an equitable distribution of risk (equity). - An equitable process of risk management would ensure fair outcomes and equal treatment of all concerned through an equal distribution of benefits and burdens (includes the concept of distributive justice, i.e., equal opportunities for all individuals). 4. Seek optimal use of limited risk management resources (utility

  19. Risk-return relationship in a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Song, Kunyu; An, Kenan; Yang, Guang; Huang, Jiping

    2012-01-01

    For survival and development, autonomous agents in complex adaptive systems involving the human society must compete against or collaborate with others for sharing limited resources or wealth, by using different methods. One method is to invest, in order to obtain payoffs with risk. It is a common belief that investments with a positive risk-return relationship (namely, high risk high return and vice versa) are dominant over those with a negative risk-return relationship (i.e., high risk low return and vice versa) in the human society; the belief has a notable impact on daily investing activities of investors. Here we investigate the risk-return relationship in a model complex adaptive system, in order to study the effect of both market efficiency and closeness that exist in the human society and play an important role in helping to establish traditional finance/economics theories. We conduct a series of computer-aided human experiments, and also perform agent-based simulations and theoretical analysis to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that investments with a negative risk-return relationship have dominance over those with a positive risk-return relationship instead in such a complex adaptive systems. We formulate the dynamical process for the system's evolution, which helps to discover the different role of identical and heterogeneous preferences. This work might be valuable not only to complexity science, but also to finance and economics, to management and social science, and to physics. PMID:22479416

  20. Risk-return relationship in a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Song, Kunyu; An, Kenan; Yang, Guang; Huang, Jiping

    2012-01-01

    For survival and development, autonomous agents in complex adaptive systems involving the human society must compete against or collaborate with others for sharing limited resources or wealth, by using different methods. One method is to invest, in order to obtain payoffs with risk. It is a common belief that investments with a positive risk-return relationship (namely, high risk high return and vice versa) are dominant over those with a negative risk-return relationship (i.e., high risk low return and vice versa) in the human society; the belief has a notable impact on daily investing activities of investors. Here we investigate the risk-return relationship in a model complex adaptive system, in order to study the effect of both market efficiency and closeness that exist in the human society and play an important role in helping to establish traditional finance/economics theories. We conduct a series of computer-aided human experiments, and also perform agent-based simulations and theoretical analysis to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that investments with a negative risk-return relationship have dominance over those with a positive risk-return relationship instead in such a complex adaptive systems. We formulate the dynamical process for the system's evolution, which helps to discover the different role of identical and heterogeneous preferences. This work might be valuable not only to complexity science, but also to finance and economics, to management and social science, and to physics.

  1. Preparing for Local Adaptation: Understanding Flood Risk Perceptions in Pittsburgh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klima, K.; Wong-Parodi, G.

    2015-12-01

    The City of Pittsburgh experiences numerous floods every year. Aging and insufficient infrastructure contribute to flash floods and to over 20 billion gallons of combined sewer overflows annually, contaminating Pittsburgh's streets, basements, and waterways. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate this problem by causing more intense and more frequent extreme precipitation events in Western Pennsylvania. For a stormwater adaptation plan to be implemented effectively, the City will need informed public support. One way to achieve public understanding and support is through effective communication of the risks, benefits, and uncertainties of local flooding hazards and adaptation methods. In order to develop these communications effectively, the city and its partners will need to know what knowledge and attitudes the residents of Pittsburgh already hold about flood risks. Here we seek to (1) identify Pittsburgh residents' knowledge level, risk perception and attitudes towards flooding and storm water management, and (2) pre-test communications meant to inform and empower Pittsburghers about flood risks and adaptation strategies. We conduct a city-wide survey of 10,000 Pittsburgh renters and homeowners from four life situations: high risk, above poverty; high-risk, below poverty; low risk, above poverty; and low-risk, below poverty. Mixed media recruitment strategies (online and paper-based solicitations guided/organized by community organizations) assist in reaching all subpopulations. Preliminary results suggest participants know what stormwater runoff is, but have a weak understanding of how stormwater interacts with natural and built systems. Furthermore, although participants have a good understanding of the difference between green and gray infrastructure, this does not translate into a change in their willingness to pay for green infrastructure adaptation. This suggests additional communications about flood risks and adaptation strategies.

  2. Continuous Risk Management Course. Revised

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hammer, Theodore F.

    1999-01-01

    This document includes a course plan for Continuous Risk Management taught by the Software Assurance Technology Center along with the Continuous Risk Management Guidebook of the Software Engineering Institute of Carnegie Mellon University and a description of Continuous Risk Management at NASA.

  3. Manual of Educational Risk Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cody, Frank J.; Dise, John H., Jr.

    This is the first risk management publication for school administrators that attempts to be comprehensive by addressing all potential areas of risk to school districts and offering specific guidelines on how to manage those areas. Chapter 1 gives directions on how to use the manual. Chapter 2 contains a complete overview of risk management,…

  4. Communicating Risk to Program Managers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shivers, C. Herbert

    2005-01-01

    Program Managers (PM) can protect program resources and improve chances of success by anticipating, understanding and managing risks. Understanding the range of potential risks helps one to avoid or manage the risks. A PM must choose which risks to accept to reduce fire fighting, must meet the expectations of stakeholders consistently, and avoid falling into costly "black holes" that may open. A good risk management process provides the PM more confidence to seize opportunities save money, meet schedule, even improve relationships with people important to the program. Evidence of managing risk and sound internal controls can mean better support from superiors for the program by building a trust and reputation from being on top of issues. Risk managers have an obligation to provide the PM with the best information possible to allow the benefits to be realized (Small Business Consortium, 2004). The Institute for Chartered Accountants in England and Wales sees very important benefits for companies in providing better information about what they do to assess and manage key business risks. Such information will: a) provide practical forward-looking information; b) reduce the cost of capital; c) encourage better risk management; and d) improve accountability for stewardship, investor protection and the usefulness of financial reporting. We are particularly convinced that enhanced risk reporting will help listed companies obtain capital at the lowest possible cost (The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England &Wales, June 2002). Risk managers can take a significant role in quantifying the success of their department and communicating those figures to executive (program) management levels while pushing for a broader risk management role. Overall, risk managers must show that risk management work matters in the most crucial place-the bottom line- as they prove risk management can be a profit center (Sullivan, 2004).

  5. Eastern European risk management

    SciTech Connect

    Honey, J.A. )

    1992-01-01

    Here the authors assess Eastern European risk management practices through the evaluation of the nuclear power plants in the region. This evaluation is limited to the Soviet-designed and -built VVER-440 pressurized water reactors (PWRs) that are currently operating in Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Russia, and the Ukraine and until recently operated at Greifswald in the former East Germany. This evaluation is based on the basic design of the plants, a safety evaluation of the Greifswald facility by representatives from the Federal Republic of Germany and personal visits by the author to Greifswald and Loviisa.

  6. Rethinking Social Barriers to Effective Adaptive Management.

    PubMed

    West, Simon; Schultz, Lisen; Bekessy, Sarah

    2016-09-01

    Adaptive management is an approach to environmental management based on learning-by-doing, where complexity, uncertainty, and incomplete knowledge are acknowledged and management actions are treated as experiments. However, while adaptive management has received significant uptake in theory, it remains elusively difficult to enact in practice. Proponents have blamed social barriers and have called for social science contributions. We address this gap by adopting a qualitative approach to explore the development of an ecological monitoring program within an adaptive management framework in a public land management organization in Australia. We ask what practices are used to enact the monitoring program and how do they shape learning? We elicit a rich narrative through extensive interviews with a key individual, and analyze the narrative using thematic analysis. We discuss our results in relation to the concept of 'knowledge work' and Westley's (2002) framework for interpreting the strategies of adaptive managers-'managing through, in, out and up.' We find that enacting the program is conditioned by distinct and sometimes competing logics-scientific logics prioritizing experimentation and learning, public logics emphasizing accountability and legitimacy, and corporate logics demanding efficiency and effectiveness. In this context, implementing adaptive management entails practices of translation to negotiate tensions between objective and situated knowledge, external experts and organizational staff, and collegiate and hierarchical norms. Our contribution embraces the 'doing' of learning-by-doing and marks a shift from conceptualizing the social as an external barrier to adaptive management to be removed to an approach that situates adaptive management as social knowledge practice.

  7. Decision-making triggers in adaptive management.

    PubMed

    Nie, Martin A; Schultz, Courtney A

    2012-12-01

    We analyzed whether decision-making triggers increase accountability of adaptive-management plans. Triggers are prenegotiated commitments in an adaptive-management plan that specify what actions are to be taken and when on the basis of information obtained from monitoring. Triggers improve certainty that particular actions will be taken by agencies in the future. We conducted an in-depth, qualitative review of the political and legal contexts of adaptive management and its application by U.S. federal agencies. Agencies must satisfy the judiciary that adaptive-management plans meet substantive legal standards and comply with the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act. We examined 3 cases in which triggers were used in adaptive-management plans: salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in the Columbia River, oil and gas development by the Bureau of Land Management, and a habitat conservation plan under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. In all the cases, key aspects of adaptive management, including controls and preidentified feedback loops, were not incorporated in the plans. Monitoring and triggered mitigation actions were limited in their enforceability, which was contingent on several factors, including which laws applied in each case and the degree of specificity in how triggers were written into plans. Other controversial aspects of these plans revolved around who designed, conducted, interpreted, and funded monitoring programs. Additional contentious issues were the level of precaution associated with trigger mechanisms and the definition of ecological baselines used as points of comparison. Despite these challenges, triggers can be used to increase accountability, by predefining points at which an adaptive management plan will be revisited and reevaluated, and thus improve the application of adaptive management in its complicated political and legal context. PMID:22891956

  8. Managing information technology security risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gilliam, David

    2003-01-01

    Information Technology (IT) Security Risk Management is a critical task for the organization to protect against the loss of confidentiality, integrity and availability of IT resources. As systems bgecome more complex and diverse and and attacks from intrusions and malicious content increase, it is becoming increasingly difficult to manage IT security risk. This paper describes a two-pronged approach in addressing IT security risk and risk management in the organization: 1) an institutional enterprise appraoch, and 2) a project life cycle approach.

  9. Limitations of science and adaptive management

    SciTech Connect

    Narasimhan, T.N.

    2001-12-20

    Adaptive management consists in patterning human sustenancewithin the constraints of Earth and biological systems whose behavior isinherently uncertain and difficult to control. For successful adaptivemanagement, a mind-set recognizing the limitations of science isneeded.

  10. Rethinking Social Barriers to Effective Adaptive Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    West, Simon; Schultz, Lisen; Bekessy, Sarah

    2016-09-01

    Adaptive management is an approach to environmental management based on learning-by-doing, where complexity, uncertainty, and incomplete knowledge are acknowledged and management actions are treated as experiments. However, while adaptive management has received significant uptake in theory, it remains elusively difficult to enact in practice. Proponents have blamed social barriers and have called for social science contributions. We address this gap by adopting a qualitative approach to explore the development of an ecological monitoring program within an adaptive management framework in a public land management organization in Australia. We ask what practices are used to enact the monitoring program and how do they shape learning? We elicit a rich narrative through extensive interviews with a key individual, and analyze the narrative using thematic analysis. We discuss our results in relation to the concept of `knowledge work' and Westley's 2002) framework for interpreting the strategies of adaptive managers—`managing through, in, out and up.' We find that enacting the program is conditioned by distinct and sometimes competing logics—scientific logics prioritizing experimentation and learning, public logics emphasizing accountability and legitimacy, and corporate logics demanding efficiency and effectiveness. In this context, implementing adaptive management entails practices of translation to negotiate tensions between objective and situated knowledge, external experts and organizational staff, and collegiate and hierarchical norms. Our contribution embraces the `doing' of learning-by-doing and marks a shift from conceptualizing the social as an external barrier to adaptive management to be removed to an approach that situates adaptive management as social knowledge practice.

  11. Risk Management in Australian Science Education: A Model for Practice.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Forlin, Peter

    1995-01-01

    Provides a framework that incorporates the diverse elements of risk management in science education into a systematic process and is adaptable to changing circumstances. Appendix contains risk management checklist for management, laboratory and storage, extreme biological and chemical hazards, protective equipment, waste disposal, electrical…

  12. Adaptive grazing management experiment: The new frontier of grazing management

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Adaptive Grazing Management experiment at the USDA-ARS Central Plains Experimental Range addresses important gaps in our current understanding of grazing management including: 1) lack of management-science partnerships to more fully understand the effect of management decisions, 2) need for mana...

  13. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    SciTech Connect

    John Collins; John M. Beck

    2011-11-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Risk Management System (RMS) is a database used to maintain the project risk register. The RMS also maps risk reduction activities to specific identified risks. Further functionality of the RMS includes mapping reactor suppliers Design Data Needs (DDNs) to risk reduction tasks and mapping Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRTs) to associated risks. This document outlines the basic instructions on how to use the RMS. This document constitutes Revision 1 of the NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk. It incorporates the latest enhancements to the RMS. The enhancements include six new custom views of risk data - Impact/Consequence, Tasks by Project Phase, Tasks by Status, Tasks by Project Phase/Status, Tasks by Impact/WBS, and Tasks by Phase/Impact/WBS.

  14. Guiding climate change adaptation within vulnerable natural resource management systems.

    PubMed

    Bardsley, Douglas K; Sweeney, Susan M

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

  15. Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bardsley, Douglas K.; Sweeney, Susan M.

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

  16. Risk Assessment/Management Tool

    2010-12-31

    RAMTool performs the following: • A tool to perform facility and programmatic risk assessments, produce risk registers, develop risk management plans (RMPs), link risks to improvement/risk-reduction projects, and actively manage risks • Ability to conduct risk assessments. Ease of determination of probability and consequence based on industry standard risk matrices. Complies with site risk management performance document. Provides multiple outputs/report for required risk forms. Conduct quick risk data analysis. • Performs/calculates a facility risk factormore » (RF) and a programmatic RF. Supports project and initiative prioritization and funding in order to make solid decisions on risk reduction. Assigns responsibility and accountability at a risk owner (RO) level. Monitors and tracks progress toward completing mitigation strategies. Ability to import massive amounts of data at the push of a button. Integrates development of a Risk Management Plan (RMP) Built for ease-of-use – design, built, and used by technical/management personnel. Can be customized (functions and/or reports) for further analysis« less

  17. Risk Assessment/Management Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Carlos Castillo, Jerel Nelson

    2010-12-31

    RAMTool performs the following: • A tool to perform facility and programmatic risk assessments, produce risk registers, develop risk management plans (RMPs), link risks to improvement/risk-reduction projects, and actively manage risks • Ability to conduct risk assessments. Ease of determination of probability and consequence based on industry standard risk matrices. Complies with site risk management performance document. Provides multiple outputs/report for required risk forms. Conduct quick risk data analysis. • Performs/calculates a facility risk factor (RF) and a programmatic RF. Supports project and initiative prioritization and funding in order to make solid decisions on risk reduction. Assigns responsibility and accountability at a risk owner (RO) level. Monitors and tracks progress toward completing mitigation strategies. Ability to import massive amounts of data at the push of a button. Integrates development of a Risk Management Plan (RMP) Built for ease-of-use – design, built, and used by technical/management personnel. Can be customized (functions and/or reports) for further analysis

  18. Improving Information Security Risk Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Singh, Anand

    2009-01-01

    manaOptimizing risk to information to protect the enterprise as well as to satisfy government and industry mandates is a core function of most information security departments. Risk management is the discipline that is focused on assessing, mitigating, monitoring and optimizing risks to information. Risk assessments and analyses are critical…

  19. Everglades Collaborative Adaptive Management Program Progress

    EPA Science Inventory

    When the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) was authorized in 2000, adaptive management (AM) was recognized as a necessary tool to address uncertainty in achieving the broad goals and objectives for restoring a highly managed system. The Everglades covers18,000 squ...

  20. Developing adaptive capacity within groundwater abstraction management systems.

    PubMed

    Holman, I P; Trawick, P

    2011-06-01

    Groundwater is a key resource for global agricultural production but is vulnerable to a changing climate. Given significant uncertainty about future impacts, bottom-up approaches for developing adaptive capacity are a more appropriate paradigm than seeking optimal adaptation strategies that assume a high ability to predict future risks or outcomes. This paper analyses the groundwater management practices adopted at multiple scales in East Anglia, UK, to identify wider lessons for developing adaptive capacity within groundwater management. Key elements are (1) horizontal and vertical integration within resource management; (2) making better use of water resources, at all scales, which vary in space and time; (3) embedding adaptation at multiple scales (from farm to national) within an adaptive management framework which allows strategies and management decisions to be updated in the light of changing understanding or conditions; (4) facilitating the ongoing formation through collective action of local Water Abstractor Groups; (5) promoting efficient use of scarce water resources by these groups, so as to increase their power to negotiate over possible short-term license restrictions; (6) controlling abstractions within a sustainable resource management framework, whether at national (regulatory) or at local (Abstractor Group) scales, that takes account of environmental water needs; and (7) reducing non-climate pressures which have the potential to further reduce the availability of usable groundwater.

  1. Challenges to sustainable risk management

    SciTech Connect

    Pinto, Ariel C., Aurora, Ashish, Hall, Dennis E.,

    2004-08-09

    This paper summarizes the intermediate lessons learned from the analyses of the risk management problems in three technological endeavors. These problems are: the absence of a structure for rewarding successful project risk management; the need for an ever-more accurate economic measure of risk; and the difficulty of transferring risks to contract-bound independent outsourcing entity. This paper also describes recent advancement towards providing answers to these challenges and future research endeavors in this field.

  2. Adaptive Management Implementation: Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program Trinity River Restoration Program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wittler, R.; McBain, S.; Stalnaker, C.; Bizier, P.; DeBarry, P.

    2003-01-01

    Two adaptive management programs, the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) and the Trinity River Restoration Program (TRRP) are examined. In both cases, the focus is on managing the aquatic and riparian systems downstream of a large dam and water supply project. The status of the two programs, lessons learned by the program managers and the Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management (AEAM) evolution of the TRRP are discussed. The Trinity River illustrates some of the scientific uncertainities that a program faces and the ways the program evolves from concept through implementation.

  3. Drought Risk and Adaptation in the Interior (DRAI)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNeeley, S.; Ojima, D. S.

    2013-12-01

    Drought is part of the normal climate variability in the Great Plains and Intermountain Western United States, but recent severe droughts along with climate change projections have increased the interest and need for better understanding of drought science and decision making. The purpose of this study is to understand how the U.S. Department of the Interior's (DOI) federal land and resource managers and their stakeholders (i.e., National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, Fish and Wildlife Service, Bureau of Reclamation, Bureau of Indian Affairs and tribes, among others) are experiencing and dealing with drought in their landscapes. The Drought Risk and Adaptation in the Interior (DRAI) project is part of a new DOI-sponsored North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) crosscutting science initiative on drought across the Center's three foundational science areas: 1. physical climate, 2. ecosystems impacts and responses, and 3. human adaptation and decision making. The overarching goal is to learn more about drought within the DOI public lands and resource management in order to contribute to both the NC CSC regional science as well as providing managers and other decision makers with the most salient, credible, and legitimate research to support land and resource management decisions. Here we will present the project approach along with some initial insights learned from the research to date along with its utility for climate adaptation.

  4. Responding to bushfire risk: the need for transformative adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Saffron J.; Handmer, John

    2012-03-01

    The 2009 ‘Black Saturday’ bushfires led to 172 civilian deaths, and were proclaimed as one of Australia’s worst natural disasters. The Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission was set up in the wake of the fires to investigate the circumstances surrounding the death of each fatality. Here, results from an analysis undertaken for the Commission to examine the household preparedness policy ‘Prepare, Stay and Defend, or Leave Early’ (‘Stay or Go’), plus an examination of the Commission’s recommendations, are explored in the broader context of adaptation to bushfire. We find Victoria ill adapted to complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday due to changing settlement patterns and the known vulnerabilities of populations living in fire prone areas, and increasingly in the future due to the influence of climate change extending fire seasons and their severity. We suggest that uncertainty needs to be better acknowledged and managed in fire risk situations, and that the responsibility for fire preparedness should be more justly distributed. We suggest that a transformation in adaptation is required to effectively manage complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday, and provide four key ways in which transformation in bushfire preparedness could be achieved.

  5. Continuous Risk Management at NASA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hammer, Theodore F.; Rosenberg, Linda

    1999-01-01

    NPG 7120.5A, "NASA Program and Project Management Processes and Requirements" enacted in April, 1998, requires that "The program or project manager shall apply risk management principles..." The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to comply with this edict. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This presentation will briefly discuss the six functions for risk management: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions. This risk management structure of functions has been taught to projects at all NASA Centers and is being successfully implemented on many projects. This presentation will give project managers the information they need to understand if risk management is to be effectively implemented on their projects at a cost they can afford.

  6. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    SciTech Connect

    John Collins

    2009-09-01

    To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft® Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool’s design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

  7. Is risk management necessary?

    PubMed

    Dingwall, R; Fenn, P

    1991-01-01

    During the last 25 years, medical negligence claims in the United Kingdom have become increasingly frequent and problematical. In 1990, the Department of Health announced that district health authorities would assume vicarious liability for negligent acts by doctors in the course of their work for the National Health Service. A study of claims closed in the region covered by one Regional Health Authority shows that over a five-year period there were 7.8 claims per 100,000 population, levels in some other Regions ranging from 4.5 to 20.5 claims per 100,000, with a progressive increase. Obstetrics/Gynaecology and Anaesthetics are prominent areas for claims. It has been suggested that by the mid 1990s some 12% of the United Kingdom's National Health Service Budget might be absorbed in indemnity payments. Negligence litigation provides signals to health care providers about where they should invest in risk reduction rather than in bearing the cost of successful claims. At the national level it can be of value to create computerized data bases' of medical mishaps. Among the various types of activity which seem more practicable and worth exploring at the local level are the positive development of a "culture of safety" in health care, the creation of risk management teams to examine and document medical misadventure, and the establishment of health care organizations which do not feel threatened by their failures but which can respond in a caring, compassionate and concerned fashion to patients' distress and deal fairly with economic losses. PMID:23511861

  8. Managing total corporate electricity/energy market risks

    SciTech Connect

    Henney, A.; Keers, G.

    1998-10-01

    The banking industry has developed a tool kit of very useful value at risk techniques for hedging risk, but these techniques must be adapted to the special complexities of the electricity market. This paper starts with a short history of the use of value-at-risk (VAR) techniques in banking risk management and then examines the specific and, in many instances, complex risk management challenges faced by electric companies from the behavior of prices in electricity markets and from the character of generation and electric retailing risks. The third section describes the main methods for making VAR calculations along with an analysis of their suitability for analyzing the risks of electricity portfolios and the case for using profit at risk and downside risk as measures of risk. The final section draws the threads together and explains how to look at managing total corporate electricity market risk, which is a big step toward managing total corporate energy market risk.

  9. Continuous Risk Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sabelhaus, Phil

    2002-01-01

    Risk identification is an ongoing activity that takes place during the routine project work flow. Project activities such as programmatic and technical meetings, telecons, reviews, and other forms of communication often bring to light project risks. When this occurs, we record and analyze the risk on a Risk Information Sheet. This process helps the project team identify and cope with project risks throughout the life of the project.

  10. Knowledge management: an innovative risk management strategy.

    PubMed

    Zipperer, Lorri; Amori, Geri

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge management effectively lends itself to the enterprise risk process. The authors introduce the concept of knowledge management as a strategy to drive innovation and support risk management. They align this work with organizational efforts to improve patient safety and quality through the effective sharing of experience and lessons learned. The article closes with suggestions on how to develop a knowledge management initiative at an organization, who should be on the team, and how to sustain this effort and build the culture it requires to drive success.

  11. Knowledge management: an innovative risk management strategy.

    PubMed

    Zipperer, Lorri; Amori, Geri

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge management effectively lends itself to the enterprise risk process. The authors introduce the concept of knowledge management as a strategy to drive innovation and support risk management. They align this work with organizational efforts to improve patient safety and quality through the effective sharing of experience and lessons learned. The article closes with suggestions on how to develop a knowledge management initiative at an organization, who should be on the team, and how to sustain this effort and build the culture it requires to drive success. PMID:21506198

  12. Landowner response to wildfire risk: Adaptation, mitigation or doing nothing.

    PubMed

    Gan, Jianbang; Jarrett, Adam; Johnson Gaither, Cassandra

    2015-08-15

    Wildfire has brought about ecological, economic, and social consequences that engender human responses in many parts of the world. How to respond to wildfire risk is a common challenge across the globe particularly in areas where lands are controlled by many small private owners because effective wildfire prevention and protection require coordinated efforts of neighboring stakeholders. We explore (i) wildfire response strategies adopted by family forestland owners in the southern United States, one of the most important and productive forest regions in the world, through a landowner survey; and (ii) linkages between the responses of these landowners and their characteristics via multinomial logistic regression. We find that landowners used diverse strategies to respond to wildfire risk, with the most popular responses being "doing nothing" and combined adaptation and mitigation, followed by adaptation or mitigation alone. Landowners who had lost properties to wildfire, lived on their forestlands, had a forest management plan, and were better educated were more likely to proactively respond to wildfire risk. Our results indicate the possibility to enhance the effectiveness of collective action of wildfire risk response by private forestland owners and to coordinate wildfire response with forest conservation and certification efforts. These findings shed new light on engaging private landowners in wildfire management in the study region and beyond.

  13. MORT (Management Oversight and Risk Tree) based risk management

    SciTech Connect

    Briscoe, G.J.

    1990-02-01

    Risk Management is the optimization of safety programs. This requires a formal systems approach to hazards identification, risk quantification, and resource allocation/risk acceptance as opposed to case-by-case decisions. The Management Oversight and Risk Tree (MORT) has gained wide acceptance as a comprehensive formal systems approach covering all aspects of risk management. It (MORT) is a comprehensive analytical procedure that provides a disciplined method for determining the causes and contributing factors of major accidents. Alternatively, it serves as a tool to evaluate the quality of an existing safety system. While similar in many respects to fault tree analysis, MORT is more generalized and presents over 1500 specific elements of an ideal ''universal'' management program for optimizing occupational safety.

  14. The NASA Risk Management Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buchbinder, Benjamin

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes the NASA Risk Management Program established by the Headquarters Office of Safety and Mission Quality (MSQ). Current agency policy is outlined, risk management assistance to the field is described, and examples are given of independent risk assessments conducted by SMQ. The motivation for and the structure of the program is placed in the historical context of pre- and post-Challenger environments.

  15. Managing risk in software systems

    SciTech Connect

    Fletcher, S.K.; Jansma, R.M.; Murphy, M.D.

    1995-07-01

    A methodology for risk management in the design of software systems is presented. It spans security, safety, and correct operation of software within the context of its environment, and produces a risk analysis and documented risk management strategy. It is designed to be iteratively applied, to attain appropriate levels of detail throughout the analysis. The methodology and supporting tools are discussed. The methodology is critiqued relative to other research in the field. Some sample applications of the methodology are presented.

  16. Feedback on flood risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreau, K.; Roumagnac, A.

    2009-09-01

    For several years, as floods were increasing in South of France, local communities felt deprive to assume their mission of protection and information of citizens, and were looking for assistance in flood management. In term of flood disaster, the fact is that physical protection is necessary but inevitably limited. Tools and structures of assistance to anticipation remain slightly developed. To manage repeated crisis, local authorities need to be able to base their policy against flood on prevention, warnings, post-crisis analysis and feedback from former experience. In this objective, after 3 years of test and improvement since 2003, the initiative Predict-Services was developed in South of France: it aims at helping communities and companies to face repeated flood crisis. The principle is to prepare emergency plans, to organize crisis management and reduce risks; to help and assist communities and companies during crisis to activate and adapt their emergency plans with enough of anticipation; and to analyse floods effects and improve emergency plans afterwards. With the help of Meteo France datas and experts, Predict services helps local communities and companies in decision making for flood management. In order to reduce risks, and to keep the benefits of such an initiative, local communities and companies have to maintain the awareness of risk of the citizens and employees. They also have to maintain their safety plans to keep them constantly operational. This is a part of the message relayed. Companies, Local communities, local government authorities and basin stakeholders are the decision makers. Companies and local communities have to involve themselves in the elaboration of safety plans. They are also completely involved in their activation that is their own responsability. This applies to other local government authorities, like districts one's and basin stakeholders, which participle in the financing community safety plans and adminitrative district which

  17. Legionnaires' disease--risk management.

    PubMed

    Mount, Steve

    2012-10-01

    Steve Mount, an independent Legionella management consultant and trainer with over 25 years' previous experience in microbiology and UKAS-accredited Legionella analysis, underlines the rising number of nosocomial cases of Legionnaires' disease in recent years, and explains the key risk assessment, management, and monitoring steps that must be taken by those responsible for hospital water systems to comply with legislation governing the 'control and management' of Legionella risk.

  18. 77 FR 74203 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-12-13

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  19. 76 FR 23621 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-04-27

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  20. 77 FR 10766 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-02-23

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  1. 75 FR 27814 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-05-18

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  2. 76 FR 34248 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-06-13

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  3. 75 FR 51284 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-19

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  4. 75 FR 17158 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-04-05

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  5. 76 FR 70751 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-15

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  6. 76 FR 14044 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-03-15

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  7. 75 FR 10501 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-03-08

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  8. 75 FR 70947 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-11-19

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  9. 77 FR 45370 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-07-31

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  10. 77 FR 50155 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-08-20

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  11. Risk Management Issues - An Aerospace Perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2011-01-01

    Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks--risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements.. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner, Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  12. Smart Grid Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abad Lopez, Carlos Adrian

    Current electricity infrastructure is being stressed from several directions -- high demand, unreliable supply, extreme weather conditions, accidents, among others. Infrastructure planners have, traditionally, focused on only the cost of the system; today, resilience and sustainability are increasingly becoming more important. In this dissertation, we develop computational tools for efficiently managing electricity resources to help create a more reliable and sustainable electrical grid. The tools we present in this work will help electric utilities coordinate demand to allow the smooth and large scale integration of renewable sources of energy into traditional grids, as well as provide infrastructure planners and operators in developing countries a framework for making informed planning and control decisions in the presence of uncertainty. Demand-side management is considered as the most viable solution for maintaining grid stability as generation from intermittent renewable sources increases. Demand-side management, particularly demand response (DR) programs that attempt to alter the energy consumption of customers either by using price-based incentives or up-front power interruption contracts, is more cost-effective and sustainable in addressing short-term supply-demand imbalances when compared with the alternative that involves increasing fossil fuel-based fast spinning reserves. An essential step in compensating participating customers and benchmarking the effectiveness of DR programs is to be able to independently detect the load reduction from observed meter data. Electric utilities implementing automated DR programs through direct load control switches are also interested in detecting the reduction in demand to efficiently pinpoint non-functioning devices to reduce maintenance costs. We develop sparse optimization methods for detecting a small change in the demand for electricity of a customer in response to a price change or signal from the utility

  13. 12 CFR 917.3 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Risk management. 917.3 Section 917.3 Banks and... RESPONSIBILITIES OF BANK BOARDS OF DIRECTORS AND SENIOR MANAGEMENT § 917.3 Risk management. (a) Risk management... all times a risk management policy that addresses the Bank's exposure to credit risk, market...

  14. 12 CFR 917.3 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Risk management. 917.3 Section 917.3 Banks and... RESPONSIBILITIES OF BANK BOARDS OF DIRECTORS AND SENIOR MANAGEMENT § 917.3 Risk management. (a) Risk management... all times a risk management policy that addresses the Bank's exposure to credit risk, market...

  15. Adaptive management for drought on rangelands

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Adaptive management for drought on rangelands encompasses 1) enterprise flexibility – herd structure where the proportion of cow-calf pairs and yearlings provides plasticity to match forage availability with forage demand, with advantages to economic returns and increased resiliency of plant communi...

  16. Adaptive governance, ecosystem management, and natural capital

    PubMed Central

    Schultz, Lisen; Folke, Carl; Österblom, Henrik; Olsson, Per

    2015-01-01

    To gain insights into the effects of adaptive governance on natural capital, we compare three well-studied initiatives; a landscape in Southern Sweden, the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, and fisheries in the Southern Ocean. We assess changes in natural capital and ecosystem services related to these social–ecological governance approaches to ecosystem management and investigate their capacity to respond to change and new challenges. The adaptive governance initiatives are compared with other efforts aimed at conservation and sustainable use of natural capital: Natura 2000 in Europe, lobster fisheries in the Gulf of Maine, North America, and fisheries in Europe. In contrast to these efforts, we found that the adaptive governance cases developed capacity to perform ecosystem management, manage multiple ecosystem services, and monitor, communicate, and respond to ecosystem-wide changes at landscape and seascape levels with visible effects on natural capital. They enabled actors to collaborate across diverse interests, sectors, and institutional arrangements and detect opportunities and problems as they developed while nurturing adaptive capacity to deal with them. They all spanned local to international levels of decision making, thus representing multilevel governance systems for managing natural capital. As with any governance system, internal changes and external drivers of global impacts and demands will continue to challenge the long-term success of such initiatives. PMID:26082542

  17. Adaptable Learning Assistant for Item Bank Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nuntiyagul, Atorn; Naruedomkul, Kanlaya; Cercone, Nick; Wongsawang, Damras

    2008-01-01

    We present PKIP, an adaptable learning assistant tool for managing question items in item banks. PKIP is not only able to automatically assist educational users to categorize the question items into predefined categories by their contents but also to correctly retrieve the items by specifying the category and/or the difficulty level. PKIP adapts…

  18. Adaptive governance, ecosystem management, and natural capital.

    PubMed

    Schultz, Lisen; Folke, Carl; Österblom, Henrik; Olsson, Per

    2015-06-16

    To gain insights into the effects of adaptive governance on natural capital, we compare three well-studied initiatives; a landscape in Southern Sweden, the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, and fisheries in the Southern Ocean. We assess changes in natural capital and ecosystem services related to these social-ecological governance approaches to ecosystem management and investigate their capacity to respond to change and new challenges. The adaptive governance initiatives are compared with other efforts aimed at conservation and sustainable use of natural capital: Natura 2000 in Europe, lobster fisheries in the Gulf of Maine, North America, and fisheries in Europe. In contrast to these efforts, we found that the adaptive governance cases developed capacity to perform ecosystem management, manage multiple ecosystem services, and monitor, communicate, and respond to ecosystem-wide changes at landscape and seascape levels with visible effects on natural capital. They enabled actors to collaborate across diverse interests, sectors, and institutional arrangements and detect opportunities and problems as they developed while nurturing adaptive capacity to deal with them. They all spanned local to international levels of decision making, thus representing multilevel governance systems for managing natural capital. As with any governance system, internal changes and external drivers of global impacts and demands will continue to challenge the long-term success of such initiatives. PMID:26082542

  19. Adaptive governance, ecosystem management, and natural capital.

    PubMed

    Schultz, Lisen; Folke, Carl; Österblom, Henrik; Olsson, Per

    2015-06-16

    To gain insights into the effects of adaptive governance on natural capital, we compare three well-studied initiatives; a landscape in Southern Sweden, the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, and fisheries in the Southern Ocean. We assess changes in natural capital and ecosystem services related to these social-ecological governance approaches to ecosystem management and investigate their capacity to respond to change and new challenges. The adaptive governance initiatives are compared with other efforts aimed at conservation and sustainable use of natural capital: Natura 2000 in Europe, lobster fisheries in the Gulf of Maine, North America, and fisheries in Europe. In contrast to these efforts, we found that the adaptive governance cases developed capacity to perform ecosystem management, manage multiple ecosystem services, and monitor, communicate, and respond to ecosystem-wide changes at landscape and seascape levels with visible effects on natural capital. They enabled actors to collaborate across diverse interests, sectors, and institutional arrangements and detect opportunities and problems as they developed while nurturing adaptive capacity to deal with them. They all spanned local to international levels of decision making, thus representing multilevel governance systems for managing natural capital. As with any governance system, internal changes and external drivers of global impacts and demands will continue to challenge the long-term success of such initiatives.

  20. Adaptive Resource Management Technology for Satellite Constellations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Welch, Lonnie; Tjaden, Brett; Pfarr, Barbara B.; Hennessy, Joseph F. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This manuscript describes the Sensor Web Adaptive Resource Manager (SWARM) project. The primary focus of the project is on the design and prototyping of middleware for managing computing and network resources in a way that enables the information systems of satellite constellations to provide realtime performance within dynamic environments. The middleware has been prototyped, and it has been evaluated by employing it to manage a pool of distributed resources for the ITOS (Integrated Test and Operations System) satellite command and control software system. The design of the middleware is discussed and a summary of the evaluation effort is provided.

  1. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    PubMed

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage. PMID:23477199

  2. MASS SPECTROMETRY FOR RISK MANAGEMENT OF DRINKING WATER TREATMENT; II. DISINFECTION BY-PRODUCTS: HALOACETIC ACIDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk management of drinking water relies on quality analytical data. Analytical methodology can often be adapted from environmental monitoring sources. However, risk management sometimes presents special analytical challenges because data may be needed from a source for which n...

  3. Fixing responsibility for risk management.

    PubMed

    Maniccia, M D

    2000-01-01

    The responsibility for carrying financial risk for medical coverage has migrated from individuals to insurers to employers to providers, without finding a satisfactory home. Each shift further complicates the health care infrastructure, as other responsibilities in the management of benefits and provision of care gravitate to the stakeholder who accepts risk. The social imperative to broaden coverage is forcing a change in the mechanisms of risk management--from avoiding high-risk patients, to managing those patients to better outcomes. In this paper we seek to identify objectively the most appropriate party to carry the financial risk of medical coverage, consider what characteristics are necessary to make that a practical and enduring solution, and examine the secondary effects of the structure required to support that solution.

  4. Human Research Risk Management

    NASA Video Gallery

    Crew health and performance is critical to successful human exploration beyond low Earth orbit. The Human Research Program (HRP) investigates and mitigates the highest risks to human health and per...

  5. Adaptable data management for systems biology investigations

    PubMed Central

    Boyle, John; Rovira, Hector; Cavnor, Chris; Burdick, David; Killcoyne, Sarah; Shmulevich, Ilya

    2009-01-01

    Background Within research each experiment is different, the focus changes and the data is generated from a continually evolving barrage of technologies. There is a continual introduction of new techniques whose usage ranges from in-house protocols through to high-throughput instrumentation. To support these requirements data management systems are needed that can be rapidly built and readily adapted for new usage. Results The adaptable data management system discussed is designed to support the seamless mining and analysis of biological experiment data that is commonly used in systems biology (e.g. ChIP-chip, gene expression, proteomics, imaging, flow cytometry). We use different content graphs to represent different views upon the data. These views are designed for different roles: equipment specific views are used to gather instrumentation information; data processing oriented views are provided to enable the rapid development of analysis applications; and research project specific views are used to organize information for individual research experiments. This management system allows for both the rapid introduction of new types of information and the evolution of the knowledge it represents. Conclusion Data management is an important aspect of any research enterprise. It is the foundation on which most applications are built, and must be easily extended to serve new functionality for new scientific areas. We have found that adopting a three-tier architecture for data management, built around distributed standardized content repositories, allows us to rapidly develop new applications to support a diverse user community. PMID:19265554

  6. Confronting socially generated uncertainty in adaptive management.

    PubMed

    Tyre, Andrew J; Michaels, Sarah

    2011-05-01

    As more and more organizations with responsibility for natural resource management adopt adaptive management as the rubric in which they wish to operate, it becomes increasingly important to consider the sources of uncertainty inherent in their endeavors. Without recognizing that uncertainty originates both in the natural world and in human undertakings, efforts to manage adaptively at the least will prove frustrating and at the worst will prove damaging to the very natural resources that are the management targets. There will be more surprises and those surprises potentially may prove at the very least unwanted and at the worst devastating. We illustrate how acknowledging uncertainty associated with the natural world is necessary but not sufficient to avoid surprise using case studies of efforts to manage three wildlife species; Hector's Dolphins, American Alligators and Pallid Sturgeon. Three characteristics of indeterminism are salient to all of them; non-stationarity, irreducibility and an inability to define objective probabilities. As an antidote, we recommend employing a holistic treatment of indeterminism, that includes recognizing that uncertainty originates in ecological systems and in how people perceive, interact and decide about the natural world of which they are integral players. PMID:20965642

  7. Strategies for risk-adapted therapy in myeloma.

    PubMed

    Fonseca, Rafael

    2007-01-01

    It is clear that the clinical heterogeneity of multiple myeloma (MM) is dictated, in large part, by disease biology, predominantly genetics.(1) As novel therapeutics have emerged, and augmented our treatment armamentarium against the disease, it is increasingly important to introduce a risk-adapted approach for the optimal management of patients.(2) The selection of ideal candidates for high-dose chemotherapy with stem cell support (HDT) and maintenance will undoubtedly have to include baseline knowledge of the genetic nature of the individual. The limited duration of responses after HDT for patients with t(4;14)(p16;q32), t(14;16)(q32;q23) and 17p13 deletions highlight the need to develop a risk-adapted treatment strategy.(3)(-)(5) Novel ways of determining outcome such as the use of gene expression profiling have demonstrated differentiating capabilities not previously observed.(6) Likewise, the order of introduction of novel therapeutic agents (during induction and in the relapsing patient) will be potentially directed by similar information. As we have previously stated, MM is not only multiple but also "many."(7) Accordingly, treatment strategies will be tailored based on risk determination, genetic composition and host features.

  8. Caries management by risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Young, Douglas A; Featherstone, John D B

    2013-02-01

    Caries disease is multifactorial. Whether caries disease will be expressed and damage dental hard tissue is dependent on the patient's own unique make-up of pathogenic risk factors and protective factors. Objectives This manuscript will review the science of managing caries disease based on assessing caries risk. Methods The caries balance/imbalance model and a practical caries risk assessment procedure for patients aged 6 years through adult will illustrate how treatment options can be based on caries risk. Results Neither the forms nor the clinical protocols are meant to imply there is currently only one correct way this can be achieved, rather are used in this manuscript as examples only. Conclusions It is important to have the forms and protocols simple and easy to understand when implementing caries management by risk assessment into clinical practice. The science of CAMBRA based on the caries balance/imbalance model was reviewed and an example protocol was presented.

  9. Feedback on flood risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreau, K.; Roumagnac, A.

    2009-09-01

    For several years, as floods were increasing in South of France, local communities felt deprive to assume their mission of protection and information of citizens, and were looking for assistance in flood management. In term of flood disaster, the fact is that physical protection is necessary but inevitably limited. Tools and structures of assistance to anticipation remain slightly developed. To manage repeated crisis, local authorities need to be able to base their policy against flood on prevention, warnings, post-crisis analysis and feedback from former experience. In this objective, after 3 years of test and improvement since 2003, the initiative Predict-Services was developped in South of France: it aims at helping communities and companies to face repeated flood crisis. The principle is to prepare emergency plans, to organize crisis management and reduce risks; to help and assist communities and companies during crisis to activate and adapt their emergency plans with enough of anticipation; and to analyse floods effects and improve emergency plans afterwards. In order to reduce risks, and to keep the benefits of such an initiative, local communities and companies have to maintain the awareness of risk of the citizens and employees. They also have to maintain their safety plans to keep them constantly operational. This is a part of the message relayed. Companies, Local communities, local government authorities and basin stakeholders are the decision makers. Companies and local communities have to involve themselves in the elaboration of safety plans. They are also completely involved in their activation that is their own responsability. This applies to other local government authorities, like districts one's and basin stakeholders, which participle in the financing community safety plans and adminitrative district which are responsible of the transmission of meteorological alert and of rescue actions. In the crossing of the géo-information stemming from the

  10. Managing Corporate Risk through Better Knowledge Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neef, Dale

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: To explain how progressive companies are using a combination of knowledge and risk management (KRM) systems and techniques in order to help them to prevent, or respond most effectively to, ethical or reputation-damaging incidents. Design/methodology/approach: The paper explains KRM, develops a corporate integrity framework, and then…

  11. Adaptive Management for Urban Watersheds: The Slavic Village Pilot Project

    EPA Science Inventory

    Adaptive management is an environmental management strategy that uses an iterative process of decision-making to reduce the uncertainty in environmental management via system monitoring. A central tenet of adaptive management is that management involves a learning process that ca...

  12. Risk management or political micromanagement?

    PubMed

    Barton, E L

    1991-04-01

    A major healthcare issue of the 1990s is whether providers will create effective risk management programs to cope with government reform mandates or whether an increasingly costly and complex regulatory structure will force them to make changes. Compliance with the Joint Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations (JCAHO) standards on patient care will become increasingly important to healthcare risk management in the 1990s. The JCAHO standards create a benchmark from which government entities set their present standards and assemble agendas for the future. Another healthcare risk management factor is compliance with the National Practitioner Data Bank. The data bank is intended to protect healthcare consumers from providers who have demonstrated a tendency to commit malpractice. However, the data bank could cause problems for healthcare providers: Inaccurate or misleading data could unfairly haunt them. Healthcare risk managers should be familiar with the prohibitions on patient dumping found in the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1985. The amendments of the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1989 (OBRA '89) do not create strict liability, nor do they impose traditional tort standards that could guide courts in cases that will inevitably result from new rules, creating a "litigation time bomb." And OBRA '90 significantly revises the law. Other risk management issues include the manner in which facilities handle and dispose of medical waste and the manner in which they resolve disputes.

  13. Adaptive management of natural resources-framework and issues

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, B.K.

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive management, an approach for simultaneously managing and learning about natural resources, has been around for several decades. Interest in adaptive decision making has grown steadily over that time, and by now many in natural resources conservation claim that adaptive management is the approach they use in meeting their resource management responsibilities. Yet there remains considerable ambiguity about what adaptive management actually is, and how it is to be implemented by practitioners. The objective of this paper is to present a framework and conditions for adaptive decision making, and discuss some important challenges in its application. Adaptive management is described as a two-phase process of deliberative and iterative phases, which are implemented sequentially over the timeframe of an application. Key elements, processes, and issues in adaptive decision making are highlighted in terms of this framework. Special emphasis is given to the question of geographic scale, the difficulties presented by non-stationarity, and organizational challenges in implementing adaptive management. ?? 2010.

  14. [Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

    PubMed

    Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

    2016-02-15

    Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China. PMID:27363124

  15. Risk management model of winter navigation operations.

    PubMed

    Valdez Banda, Osiris A; Goerlandt, Floris; Kuzmin, Vladimir; Kujala, Pentti; Montewka, Jakub

    2016-07-15

    The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish-Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible.

  16. Risk management model of winter navigation operations.

    PubMed

    Valdez Banda, Osiris A; Goerlandt, Floris; Kuzmin, Vladimir; Kujala, Pentti; Montewka, Jakub

    2016-07-15

    The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish-Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible. PMID:27207023

  17. Increasing safety, managing risk.

    PubMed

    Long, R

    2001-06-01

    Before criminal background checks became standard industry practice, a long term care administrator in Illinois paid $15 per inquiry for such checks on potential hires for his facility. Management ordered the inquiries halted for budgetary reasons. A few months later, facing holiday staff shortages around Christmastime, the administrator hired two new aides to help round out a skeletal staff. "I did the registry checks, the reference checks, everything came in fine," recalls the administrator, who asked to remain anonymous in our reportage. "I came back in on Monday--Christmas was on Sunday--and got a report from [a resident's] family members that their mother had been sexually abused Christmas night." A year later, in legal proceedings over the incident, the administrator was summoned to give a deposition about the center's hiring practices. In fact, it had been discovered that one of the aides hired did have a record of abuse. Because the administrator cited that he was not permitted to perform criminal background checks, a decision with which he disagreed, he became a key witness for the plaintiff. Management admitted liability and paid $1 million in damages awarded the plaintiff.

  18. Use of risk management concepts in law enforcement settings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schurmann, Donald L.

    1999-01-01

    Most senior police officials are competent when it comes to assessing and managing physical risk during the course of law enforcement activities. Some even have aptitude for managing sociopolitical risks, but they are much rarer and are usually found in larger departments, which can afford to send senior officers to public speaking and media-management courses. There are tools that can be adapted from industrial safety to aid in managing sociopolitical risks in law enforcement activities. One such tool is the HAZards and OPerability Study (HAZOPS)tool1. This tool is basically a systemic method of performing 'what if' studies. This tool, and some others, are described in this paper.

  19. Risk Management Structured for Today's Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greenfield, Michael A.

    1998-01-01

    In NPG (NASA Procedures and Guidelines) 7120.5A, we define risk management as "an organized, systematic decision-making process that efficiently identifies, analyzes, plans, tracks, controls, and communicates and documents risk in order to increase the likelihood of achieving program/project goals." Effective risk management depends upon a thorough understanding of the concept of risk, the principles of risk management and the formation of a disciplined risk management process. In human spaceflight programs, NASA has always maintained a rigorous and highly structured risk management effort. When lives are at stake, NASA's missions must be 100% safe; the risk management approach used in human spaceflight has always been comprehensive.

  20. Adaptive management of social-ecological systems: the path forward

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, Craig R.

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive management remains at the forefront of environmental management nearly 40 years after its original conception, largely because we have yet to develop other methodologies that offer the same promise. Despite the criticisms of adaptive management and the numerous failed attempts to implement it, adaptive management has yet to be replaced with a better alternative. The concept persists because it is simple, allows action despite uncertainty, and fosters learning. Moving forward, adaptive management of social-ecological systems provides policymakers, managers and scientists a powerful tool for managing for resilience in the face of uncertainty.

  1. Obstetrics Hospitalists: Risk Management Implications.

    PubMed

    Veltman, Larry

    2015-09-01

    The concept of having an in-house obstetrician (serving as an obstetrics [OB] hospitalist) available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week provides a safety net for OB events that many need immediate intervention for a successful outcome. A key precept of risk management, that of loss prevention, fits perfectly with the addition of an OB hospitalist role in the perinatal department. Inherent in the role of OB hospitalists are the patient safety and risk management principles of improved communication, enhanced readiness, and immediate availability.

  2. Risk Management: Research Needs and Status Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Terry J.

    1998-01-01

    Summarizes risk-management research in categories of practical relevance to outdoor recreation stakeholders and the research community: conceptualization of risk; risk/benefit studies; risk monitoring; risk management in organizations and programs (identification, evaluation, control, planning, evaluation); legal issues; and risk communication.…

  3. Feasibility of Adapting Multisystemic Therapy to Improve Illness Management Behaviors and Reduce Asthma Morbidity in High Risk African American Youth: A Case Series

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Naar-King, Sylvie; Ellis, Deborah; Kolmodin, Karen; Cunningham, Phillippe; Secord, Elizabeth

    2009-01-01

    African-American adolescents have the highest rates of asthma morbidity and mortality, yet there are few successful behavioral interventions to improve illness management for this group. Mental health providers have an opportunity to expand their services and impact by targeting adolescents with poor asthma management. We describe the adaptation…

  4. Structured prototyping as risk management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hornstein, Rhoda SH.; Gardner, J. A.; Willoughby, J. K.

    1991-01-01

    A methodology is presented for integrating the systems-engineering management recommendation of prototyping into the traditional project-management process for developing large-scale systems. The suggested methodology begins with the identification of life-cycle risk areas, outlines the structure and conduct of the prototyping process, and defines the composition of the prototyping team. The methodology includes a step-by-step procedure for creating, executing, and documenting a prototyping test plan to evaluate design alternatives. It is argued that managers who adopt this methodology and apply it rigorously will increase the likelihood that the systems they build will be operationally effective and will be accepted by the intended users.

  5. Overview of the Hanford risk management plan

    SciTech Connect

    Halverson, T.G.

    1998-03-26

    The Project Hanford Management Contract called for the enhancement of site-wide decision processes, and development of a Hanford Risk Management Plan to adopt or develop a risk management system for the Hanford Site. This Plan provides a consistent foundation for Site issues and addresses site-wide management of risks of all types. It supports the Department of Energy planning and sitewide decision making policy. Added to this requirement is a risk performance report to characterize the risk management accomplishments. This paper presents the development of risk management within the context of work planning and performance. Also discussed are four risk elements which add value to the context.

  6. Responsible management of environmental risk

    SciTech Connect

    Browne, C.S.

    1996-12-31

    Responsible management of environmental risk means defining the components: renewable and nonrenewable resources, natural versus human-induced environmental impacts, and specific processes through the disciplines of geology, hydrology, soil science, geochemistry. Another part involves the economic effects of those risks. A prime example for utilizing management of economic effects is the controversy over the Pacific Salmon Fishery. Science holds many of the answers such as estuary management that impact the return of the salmon to spawning areas. Scientific examination of old maps to locate decades old earthen dams which may restrict the free flowing water in some of the Columbia River tributaries, subsequent removal of those dams may produce economic benefits. A multi-disciplined management review of all the environmental risks can produce acceptable alternatives for salmon fishery enhancement. Application of geochemistry holds many potential keys to resolving long-standing environmental concerns provided regulatory agencies have not formulated prohibitive standards. At the recent American Association of Petroleum Geologist Hedberg Conference on Rational Science for Public Policy, a simple geochemical model was presented to cope with soil containing hydrocarbon contamination. Using risk analysis for questions of natural background levels of contamination can foster lower costs of remedial clean ups, provide achievable environmental policies and regulations as well as foster greater education and acceptance by the general public. It is self-defeating to set standards for lower contamination limits than particular concentrations of certain elements that occur in nature.

  7. Ideology and Environmental Risk Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Alan

    1985-01-01

    Discusses the influence of ideology (including both psychological and political dimensions) on an individual's approach to environmental risk management. Compares and contrasts technocratic and humanist forms of environmental ideologies. Also reviews the implications of socio-political and psychological constraints on environmental decision…

  8. Responsible management of environmental risk

    SciTech Connect

    Browne, C.S. )

    1996-01-01

    Responsible management of environmental risk means defining the components: renewable and nonrenewable resources, natural versus human-induced environmental impacts, and specific processes through the disciplines of geology, hydrology, soil science, geochemistry. Another part involves the economic effects of those risks. A prime example for utilizing management of economic effects is the controversy over the Pacific Salmon Fishery. Science holds many of the answers such as estuary management that impact the return of the salmon to spawning areas. Scientific examination of old maps to locate decades old earthen dams which may restrict the free flowing water in some of the Columbia River tributaries, subsequent removal of those dams may produce economic benefits. A multi-disciplined management review of all the environmental risks can produce acceptable alternatives for salmon fishery enhancement. Application of geochemistry holds many potential keys to resolving long-standing environmental concerns provided regulatory agencies have not formulated prohibitive standards. At the recent American Association of Petroleum Geologist Hedberg Conference on Rational Science for Public Policy, a simple geochemical model was presented to cope with soil containing hydrocarbon contamination. Using risk analysis for questions of natural background levels of contamination can foster lower costs of remedial clean ups, provide achievable environmental policies and regulations as well as foster greater education and acceptance by the general public. It is self-defeating to set standards for lower contamination limits than particular concentrations of certain elements that occur in nature.

  9. Risk Management for Wilderness Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schimelpfenig, Tod

    This paper discusses subjective hazards in wilderness activities and suggests means of assessing and managing related risks. Wilderness educators conveniently group hazards into objective and subjective ones. Objective hazards such as rockfall, moving water, and weather, while not necessarily predictable, are visible and understandable. Subjective…

  10. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  11. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    PubMed

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  12. Adaptive momentum management for large space structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hahn, E.

    1987-01-01

    Momentum management is discussed for a Large Space Structure (LSS) with the structure selected configuration being the Initial Orbital Configuration (IOC) of the dual keel space station. The external forces considered were gravity gradient and aerodynamic torques. The goal of the momentum management scheme developed is to remove the bias components of the external torques and center the cyclic components of the stored angular momentum. The scheme investigated is adaptive to uncertainties of the inertia tensor and requires only approximate knowledge of principle moments of inertia. Computational requirements are minimal and should present no implementation problem in a flight type computer and the method proposed is shown to be effective in the presence of attitude control bandwidths as low as .01 radian/sec.

  13. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    PubMed

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

  14. Tank waste remediation system risk management list

    SciTech Connect

    Collard, L.B.

    1995-10-31

    The Tank Waste Remedation System (TWRS) Risk Management List and it`s subset of critical risks, the Critical Risk Management List, provide a tool to senior RL and WHC management (Level-1 and -2) to manage programmatic risks that may significantly impact the TWRS program. The programmatic risks include cost, schedule, and performance risks. Performance risk includes technical risk, supportability risk (such as maintainability and availability), and external risk (i.e., beyond program control, for example, changes in regulations). The risk information includes a description, its impacts, as evaluation of the likelihood, consequences and risk value, possible mitigating actions, and responsible RL and WHC managers. The issues that typically form the basis for the risks are presented in a separate table and the affected functions are provided on the management lists.

  15. Reducing the risk, managing safety.

    PubMed

    Aldridge, Peter

    2016-02-01

    Fire safety in healthcare premises has always been a challenge to those that discharge this duty. Statutory compliance should be a matter of course, but in an ever increasingly challenged NHS, even this is not a given. While the NHS is driven by managing very complex risk to deliver cutting edge healthcare, providers cannot be risk averse. Which risk, however, takes priority? Here Peter Aldridge, fire and corporate services manager at Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, and Secretary to the National Association of Healthcare Fire Officers (NAHFO)--which will this month and next jointly stage fire safety seminars with IHEEM; see page 8--considers the key issues, with input from a fire officer at a leading mental health and community Trust. PMID:27017658

  16. Risk Management of NASA Projects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sarper, Hueseyin

    1997-01-01

    Various NASA Langley Research Center and other center projects were attempted for analysis to obtain historical data comparing pre-phase A study and the final outcome for each project. This attempt, however, was abandoned once it became clear that very little documentation was available. Next, extensive literature search was conducted on the role of risk and reliability concepts in project management. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques are being used with increasing regularity both in and outside of NASA. The value and the usage of PRA techniques were reviewed for large projects. It was found that both civilian and military branches of the space industry have traditionally refrained from using PRA, which was developed and expanded by nuclear industry. Although much has changed with the end of the cold war and the Challenger disaster, it was found that ingrained anti-PRA culture is hard to stop. Examples of skepticism against the use of risk management and assessment techniques were found both in the literature and in conversations with some technical staff. Program and project managers need to be convinced that the applicability and use of risk management and risk assessment techniques is much broader than just in the traditional safety-related areas of application. The time has come to begin to uniformly apply these techniques. The whole idea of risk-based system can maximize the 'return on investment' that the public demands. Also, it would be very useful if all project documents of NASA Langley Research Center, pre-phase A through final report, are carefully stored in a central repository preferably in electronic format.

  17. Hurricane risk management and climate information gatekeeping in southeast Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Treuer, G.; Bolson, J.

    2013-12-01

    Tropical storms provide fresh water necessary for healthy economies and health ecosystems. Hurricanes, massive tropical storms, threaten catastrophic flooding and wind damage. Sea level rise exacerbates flooding risks from rain and storm surge for coastal communities. Climate change adaptation measures to manage this risk must be implemented locally, but actions at other levels of government and by neighboring communities impact the options available to local municipalities. When working on adaptation local decision makers must balance multiple types of risk: physical or scientifically described risks, legal risks, and political risks. Generating usable or actionable climate science is a goal of the academic climate community. To do this we need to expand our analysis to include types of risk that constrain the use of objective science. Integrating physical, legal, and political risks is difficult. Each requires specific expertise and uses unique language. An opportunity exists to study how local decision makers manage all three on a daily basis and how their risk management impacts climate resilience for communities and ecosystems. South Florida's particular vulnerabilities make it an excellent case study. Besides physical vulnerabilities (low elevation, intense coastal development, frequent hurricanes, compromised ecosystems) it also has unique legal and political challenges. Federal and state property rights protections create legal risks for government action that restricts land use to promote climate adaptation. Also, a lack of cases that deal with climate change creates uncertainty about the nature of these legal risks. Politically Florida is divided ideologically and geographically. The regions in the southeast which are most vulnerable are predominantly Hispanic and under-represented at the state level, where leadership on climate change is functionally nonexistent. It is conventional wisdom amongst water managers in Florida that little climate adaptation

  18. 12 CFR 917.3 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Risk management. 917.3 Section 917.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT OF THE FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANKS POWERS AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF BANK BOARDS OF DIRECTORS AND SENIOR MANAGEMENT § 917.3 Risk management. (a) Risk...

  19. 12 CFR 917.3 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Risk management. 917.3 Section 917.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT OF THE FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANKS POWERS AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF BANK BOARDS OF DIRECTORS AND SENIOR MANAGEMENT § 917.3 Risk management. (a) Risk...

  20. 12 CFR 917.3 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk management. 917.3 Section 917.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT OF THE FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANKS POWERS AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF BANK BOARDS OF DIRECTORS AND SENIOR MANAGEMENT § 917.3 Risk management. (a) Risk...

  1. Managing risks and hazardous in industrial operations

    SciTech Connect

    Almaula, S.C.

    1996-12-31

    The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate that it makes good business sense to identify risks and hazards of an operation and take appropriate steps to manage them effectively. Developing and implementing an effective risk and hazard management plan also contibutes to other industry requirements and standards. Development of a risk management system, key elements of a risk management plan, and hazards and risk analysis methods are outlined. Comparing potential risk to the cost of prevention is also discussed. It is estimated that the cost of developing and preparing the first risk management plan varies between $50,000 to $200,000. 3 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  2. A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management

    DOE PAGES

    White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

    2014-01-01

    This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical andmore » cost-effective.« less

  3. A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management

    SciTech Connect

    White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

    2014-01-01

    This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical and cost-effective.

  4. [Risk and risk management in aviation].

    PubMed

    Müller, Manfred

    2004-10-01

    RISK MANAGEMENT: The large proportion of human errors in aviation accidents suggested the solution--at first sight brilliant--to replace the fallible human being by an "infallible" digitally-operating computer. However, even after the introduction of the so-called HITEC-airplanes, the factor human error still accounts for 75% of all accidents. Thus, if the computer is ruled out as the ultimate safety system, how else can complex operations involving quick and difficult decisions be controlled? OPTIMIZED TEAM INTERACTION/PARALLEL CONNECTION OF THOUGHT MACHINES: Since a single person is always "highly error-prone", support and control have to be guaranteed by a second person. The independent work of mind results in a safety network that more efficiently cushions human errors. NON-PUNITIVE ERROR MANAGEMENT: To be able to tackle the actual problems, the open discussion of intervened errors must not be endangered by the threat of punishment. It has been shown in the past that progress is primarily achieved by investigating and following up mistakes, failures and catastrophes shortly after they happened. HUMAN FACTOR RESEARCH PROJECT: A comprehensive survey showed the following result: By far the most frequent safety-critical situation (37.8% of all events) consists of the following combination of risk factors: 1. A complication develops. 2. In this situation of increased stress a human error occurs. 3. The negative effects of the error cannot be corrected or eased because there are deficiencies in team interaction on the flight deck. This means, for example, that a negative social climate has the effect of a "turbocharger" when a human error occurs. It needs to be pointed out that a negative social climate is not identical with a dispute. In many cases the working climate is burdened without the responsible person even noticing it: A first negative impression, too much or too little respect, contempt, misunderstandings, not expressing unclear concern, etc. can

  5. Public access management as an adaptive wildlife management tool

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ouren, Douglas S.; Watts, Raymond D.

    2005-01-01

    One key issue in the Black Mesa – Black Canyon area is the interaction between motorized vehicles and. The working hypothesis for this study is that early season elk movement onto private lands and the National Park is precipitated by increased use of Off Highway Vehicles (OHV’s). Data on intensity of motorized use is extremely limited. In this study, we monitor intensity of motorized vehicle and trail use on elk movements and habitat usage and analyze interactions. If management agencies decide to alter accessibility, we will monitor wildlife responses to changes in the human-use regime. This provides a unique opportunity for adaptive management experimentation based on coordinated research and monitoring. The products from this project will provide natural resource managers across the nation with tools and information to better meet these resource challenges.

  6. Adaptive Management of Social-Ecological Systems: The Path Forward

    EPA Science Inventory

    Adaptive management remains at the forefront of environmental management nearly 40 years after its original conception, largely because we have yet to develop other methodologies that offer the same promise. Despite the criticisms of adaptive management and the numerous failed at...

  7. Can informed consent to research be adapted to risk?

    PubMed

    Bromwich, Danielle; Rid, Annette

    2015-07-01

    The current ethical and regulatory framework for research is often charged with burdening investigators and impeding socially valuable research. To address these concerns, a growing number of research ethicists argue that informed consent should be adapted to the risks of research participation. This would require less rigorous consent standards in low-risk research than in high-risk research. However, the current discussion is restricted to cases of research in which the risks of research participation are outweighed by the potential clinical benefits for the individual research participant. Furthermore, current proposals do not address the concern that risk-adapted informed consent may result in enrolling participants into research without their autonomous authorisation. In this paper, we show how the standard view of informed consent--consent as autonomous authorisation--can be adapted to risk even when the research does not have a favourable risk-benefit profile for the participant. Our argument has two important implications: first, it implies that current and proposed consent standards are not adequately calibrated to risk and, second, that consent standards also need to be adapted to factors other than risk.

  8. An Extensible Information Grid for Risk Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maluf, David A.; Bell, David G.

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes recent work on developing an extensible information grid for risk management at NASA - a RISK INFORMATION GRID. This grid is being developed by integrating information grid technology with risk management processes for a variety of risk related applications. To date, RISK GRID applications are being developed for three main NASA processes: risk management - a closed-loop iterative process for explicit risk management, program/project management - a proactive process that includes risk management, and mishap management - a feedback loop for learning from historical risks that escaped other processes. This is enabled through an architecture involving an extensible database, structuring information with XML, schemaless mapping of XML, and secure server-mediated communication using standard protocols.

  9. Determining hospital risk management staffing through analytics.

    PubMed

    Howard, Chrystina M; Felton, Kenneth W

    2013-01-01

    This article presents the development of an independent research project to gather time data from hospital risk managers in order to establish an objective, justifiable means of determining staffing levels recommended to support risk management activities and department functions.

  10. Risk Management for Human Support Technology Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    jones, Harry

    2005-01-01

    NASA requires continuous risk management for all programs and projects. The risk management process identifies risks, analyzes their impact, prioritizes them, develops and carries out plans to mitigate or accept them, tracks risks and mitigation plans, and communicates and documents risk information. Project risk management is driven by the project goal and is performed by the entire team. Risk management begins early in the formulation phase with initial risk identification and development of a risk management plan and continues throughout the project life cycle. This paper describes the risk management approach that is suggested for use in NASA's Human Support Technology Development. The first step in risk management is to identify the detailed technical and programmatic risks specific to a project. Each individual risk should be described in detail. The identified risks are summarized in a complete risk list. Risk analysis provides estimates of the likelihood and the qualitative impact of a risk. The likelihood and impact of the risk are used to define its priority location in the risk matrix. The approaches for responding to risk are either to mitigate it by eliminating or reducing the effect or likelihood of a risk, to accept it with a documented rationale and contingency plan, or to research or monitor the risk, The Human Support Technology Development program includes many projects with independently achievable goals. Each project must do independent risk management, considering all its risks together and trading them against performance, budget, and schedule. Since the program can succeed even if some projects fail, the program risk has a complex dependence on the individual project risks.

  11. Linking Climate Risk, Policy Networks and Adaptation Planning in Public Lands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lubell, M.; Schwartz, M.; Peters, C.

    2014-12-01

    Federal public land management agencies in the United States have engaged a variety of planning efforts to address climate adaptation. A major goal of these efforts is to build policy networks that enable land managers to access information and expertise needed for responding to local climate risks. This paper investigates whether the perceived and modeled climate risk faced by different land managers is leading to larger networks or more participating in climate adaptation. In theory, the benefits of climate planning networks are larger when land managers are facing more potential changes. The basic hypothesis is tested with a survey of public land managers from hundreds of local and regional public lands management units in the Southwestern United States, as well as other stakeholders involved with climate adaptation planning. All survey respondents report their perceptions of climate risk along a variety of dimensions, as well as their participation in climate adaptation planning and information sharing networks. For a subset of respondents, we have spatially explicity GIS data about their location, which will be linked with downscaled climate model data. With the focus on climate change, the analysis is a subset of the overall idea of linking social and ecological systems.

  12. The Role of Risk and Risk Management in Experiential Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mobley, Michael

    A monograph examines the role of risk and risk management in experiential education, particularly stress/challenge programming. Definitions of risk are presented. The importance of risk and stress in experiential education is emphasized. Implications of subjective versus objective risk assessment in adventure education are discussed, with…

  13. Fluvial flood risk management in a changing world

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merz, B.; Hall, J.; Disse, M.; Schumann, A.

    2010-03-01

    Flood risk emerges from the interaction of hazard and vulnerability. Over recent decades the notion of risk being the basis for flood management decisions has become widely accepted and operationalised through the use of models and quantified risk analysis providing the evidence for risk-informed decision making. However, it is now abundantly apparent that changes in time, at a range of scales, of pertinent variables that determine risk are not a second order consideration but, instead, fundamentally challenge the conventional approach to flood risk management. The nature of some of these changes, particularly those that operate on extended timescales, are highly uncertain, yet decisions that may have implications for several decades still have to be taken. In this paper we explore how flood risk management may be adapted to address processes of uncertain future change. We identify a range of levels at which change may be incorporated in decision making: in the representation of uncertain non-stationary quantities; in the rules that are used to identify preferred options; in the variety of options that may be contemplated for flood risk management; in the scope of problem definition, which increasingly extends to address multiple hazards and multiple functions of river basins; and in the social and organizational characteristics that promote adaptive capacity. Integrated responses to changing flood risk need to attend to each of these levels of decision making, from the technicalities of non-stationarity, to the promotion of resilient societies.

  14. 12 CFR 932.1 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Risk management. 932.1 Section 932.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.1 Risk management. Before its new capital plan may...

  15. Risk Management in Student Personnel Administration.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hammond, Edward H.; Hagan, Charles F.

    1979-01-01

    A risk management plan is an effective tool for postsecondary institutions to utilize in organizing management of both personal and institutional liability. Important considerations involve criminal and civil liabilities, causes of risk, and integral elements of a good risk management plan. (NRB)

  16. 12 CFR 932.1 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Risk management. 932.1 Section 932.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.1 Risk management. Before its new capital plan may...

  17. 12 CFR 932.1 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Risk management. 932.1 Section 932.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.1 Risk management. Before its new capital plan may...

  18. 12 CFR 932.1 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk management. 932.1 Section 932.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.1 Risk management. Before its new capital plan may...

  19. Managing Risk Assessment in Science Departments.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Forlin, Peter; Forlin, Chris

    1997-01-01

    Describes a health-and-safety risk-management audit in four Queensland, Australia high schools. One major outcome of this research project is the development of a comprehensive risk-management policy in compliance with the law. Other outcomes include the preparation of a professional-development package in risk-management policy for use as a…

  20. 12 CFR 932.1 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Risk management. 932.1 Section 932.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.1 Risk management. Before its new capital plan may...

  1. 42 CFR 441.476 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Risk management. 441.476 Section 441.476 Public... Self-Directed Personal Assistance Services Program § 441.476 Risk management. (a) The State must... plan for how identified risks will be mitigated. (d) The State must ensure that the risk...

  2. 42 CFR 441.476 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Risk management. 441.476 Section 441.476 Public... Self-Directed Personal Assistance Services Program § 441.476 Risk management. (a) The State must... plan for how identified risks will be mitigated. (d) The State must ensure that the risk...

  3. 42 CFR 441.476 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Risk management. 441.476 Section 441.476 Public... Self-Directed Personal Assistance Services Program § 441.476 Risk management. (a) The State must... plan for how identified risks will be mitigated. (d) The State must ensure that the risk...

  4. 42 CFR 441.476 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Risk management. 441.476 Section 441.476 Public... Self-Directed Personal Assistance Services Program § 441.476 Risk management. (a) The State must... plan for how identified risks will be mitigated. (d) The State must ensure that the risk...

  5. 42 CFR 441.476 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Risk management. 441.476 Section 441.476 Public... Self-Directed Personal Assistance Services Program § 441.476 Risk management. (a) The State must... plan for how identified risks will be mitigated. (d) The State must ensure that the risk...

  6. Lessons Learned from the Everglades Collaborative Adaptive Management Program

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recent technical papers explore whether adaptive management (AM) is useful for environmental management and restoration efforts and discuss the many challenges to overcome for successful implementation, especially for large-scale restoration programs (McLain and Lee 1996; Levine ...

  7. Risk Management in High Adventure Outdoor Pursuits.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cinnamon, Jerry

    This paper outlines management guidelines for outdoor adventure pursuits based on analysis of accident case studies in the literature. Managing risk, to a large degree, involves managing human errors related to natural environmental hazards. The knowledge needed to manage risk may be gained through personal experience (the most dangerous way),…

  8. Adapting natural resource management to climate change: The South Central Oregon and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

    2015-12-01

    Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and one national park in south central Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

  9. Adaptive Delta Management: cultural aspects of dealing with uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timmermans, Jos; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Hermans, Leon; Kwakkel, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Deltas are generally recognized as vulnerable to climate change and therefore a salient topic in adaptation science. Deltas are also highly dynamic systems viewed from physical (erosion, sedimentation, subsidence), social (demographic), economic (trade), infrastructures (transport, energy, metropolization) and cultural (multi-ethnic) perspectives. This multi-faceted dynamic character of delta areas warrants the emergence of a branch of applied adaptation science, Adaptive Delta Management, which explicitly focuses on climate adaptation of such highly dynamic and deeply uncertain systems. The application of Adaptive Delta Management in the Dutch Delta Program and its active international dissemination by Dutch professionals results in the rapid dissemination of Adaptive Delta Management to deltas worldwide. This global dissemination raises concerns among professionals in delta management on its applicability in deltas with cultural conditions and historical developments quite different from those found in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom where the practices now labelled as Adaptive Delta Management first emerged. This research develops an approach and gives a first analysis of the interaction between the characteristics of different approaches in Adaptive Delta Management and their alignment with the cultural conditions encountered in various delta's globally. In this analysis, first different management theories underlying approaches to Adaptive Delta Management as encountered in both scientific and professional publications are identified and characterized on three dimensions: The characteristics dimensions used are: orientation on today, orientation on the future, and decision making (Timmermans, 2015). The different underlying management theories encountered are policy analysis, strategic management, transition management, and adaptive management. These four management theories underlying different approaches in Adaptive Delta Management are connected to

  10. Estimating Skin Cancer Risk: Evaluating Mobile Computer-Adaptive Testing

    PubMed Central

    Djaja, Ngadiman; Janda, Monika; Olsen, Catherine M; Whiteman, David C

    2016-01-01

    Background Response burden is a major detriment to questionnaire completion rates. Computer adaptive testing may offer advantages over non-adaptive testing, including reduction of numbers of items required for precise measurement. Objective Our aim was to compare the efficiency of non-adaptive (NAT) and computer adaptive testing (CAT) facilitated by Partial Credit Model (PCM)-derived calibration to estimate skin cancer risk. Methods We used a random sample from a population-based Australian cohort study of skin cancer risk (N=43,794). All 30 items of the skin cancer risk scale were calibrated with the Rasch PCM. A total of 1000 cases generated following a normal distribution (mean [SD] 0 [1]) were simulated using three Rasch models with three fixed-item (dichotomous, rating scale, and partial credit) scenarios, respectively. We calculated the comparative efficiency and precision of CAT and NAT (shortening of questionnaire length and the count difference number ratio less than 5% using independent t tests). Results We found that use of CAT led to smaller person standard error of the estimated measure than NAT, with substantially higher efficiency but no loss of precision, reducing response burden by 48%, 66%, and 66% for dichotomous, Rating Scale Model, and PCM models, respectively. Conclusions CAT-based administrations of the skin cancer risk scale could substantially reduce participant burden without compromising measurement precision. A mobile computer adaptive test was developed to help people efficiently assess their skin cancer risk. PMID:26800642

  11. Calysto: Risk Management for Commercial Manned Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dillaman, Gary

    2012-01-01

    The Calysto: Risk Management for Commercial Manned Spaceflight study analyzes risk management in large enterprises and how to effectively communicate risks across organizations. The Calysto Risk Management tool developed by NASA's Kennedy Space Center's SharePoint team is used and referenced throughout the study. Calysto is a web-base tool built on Microsoft's SharePoint platform. The risk management process at NASA is examined and incorporated in the study. Using risk management standards from industry and specific organizations at the Kennedy Space Center, three methods of communicating and elevating risk are examined. Each method describes details of the effectiveness and plausibility of using the method in the Calysto Risk Management Tool. At the end of the study suggestions are made for future renditions of Calysto.

  12. Passive and active adaptive management: Approaches and an example

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, B.K.

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. Yet there remains considerable confusion about what adaptive management entails, and how to actually make resource decisions adaptively. A key but somewhat ambiguous distinction in adaptive management is between active and passive forms of adaptive decision making. The objective of this paper is to illustrate some approaches to active and passive adaptive management with a simple example involving the drawdown of water impoundments on a wildlife refuge. The approaches are illustrated for the drawdown example, and contrasted in terms of objectives, costs, and potential learning rates. Some key challenges to the actual practice of AM are discussed, and tradeoffs between implementation costs and long-term benefits are highlighted. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  13. 43 CFR 46.145 - Using adaptive management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... implementation decisions. The NEPA analysis conducted in the context of an adaptive management approach should... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Using adaptive management. 46.145 Section... ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ACT OF 1969 Protection and Enhancement of Environmental Quality § 46.145 Using...

  14. 78 FR 7810 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-02-04

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group (AMWG) makes recommendations to the Secretary of the Interior concerning Glen Canyon Dam operations...

  15. 76 FR 24516 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-05-02

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group (AMWG) makes recommendations to the Secretary of the Interior concerning Glen Canyon Dam operations...

  16. 77 FR 9265 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-02-16

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group (AMWG) makes recommendations to the Secretary of the Interior concerning Glen Canyon Dam operations...

  17. 78 FR 21415 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-04-10

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group (AMWG) makes recommendations to the Secretary of the Interior concerning Glen Canyon Dam operations...

  18. 75 FR 34476 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-06-17

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation... Interior (Secretary) is renewing the charter for the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group. The... with respect to the operation of Glen Canyon Dam and the exercise of other authorities pursuant...

  19. 77 FR 22801 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-04-17

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of public meeting (WebEx/conference call). SUMMARY: The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive... Dam operations and other management actions to protect resources downstream of Glen Canyon...

  20. 77 FR 43117 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-07-23

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group (AMWG) makes recommendations to the Secretary of the Interior concerning Glen Canyon Dam operations...

  1. Complex Adaptive Systems as Metaphors for Organizational Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Palmberg, Klara

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore the concept of complex adaptive systems (CAS) from the perspective of managing organizations, to describe and explore the management principles in a case study of an organization with unconventional ways of management and to present a tentative model for managing organizations as CAS--system…

  2. Commercializing fuel cells: managing risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bos, Peter B.

    Commercialization of fuel cells, like any other product, entails both financial and technical risks. Most of the fuel cell literature has focussed upon technical risks, however, the most significant risks during commercialization may well be associated with the financial funding requirements of this process. Successful commercialization requires an integrated management of these risks. Like any developing technology, fuel cells face the typical 'Catch-22' of commercialization: "to enter the market, the production costs must come down, however, to lower these costs, the cumulative production must be greatly increased, i.e. significant market penetration must occur". Unless explicit steps are taken to address this dilemma, fuel cell commercialization will remain slow and require large subsidies for market entry. To successfully address this commercialization dilemma, it is necessary to follow a market-driven commercialization strategy that identifies high-value entry markets while minimizing the financial and technical risks of market entry. The financial and technical risks of fuel cell commercialization are minimized, both for vendors and end-users, with the initial market entry of small-scale systems into high-value stationary applications. Small-scale systems, in the order of 1-40 kW, benefit from economies of production — as opposed to economies to scale — to attain rapid cost reductions from production learning and continuous technological innovation. These capital costs reductions will accelerate their commercialization through market pull as the fuel cell systems become progressively more viable, starting with various high-value stationary and, eventually, for high-volume mobile applications. To facilitate market penetration via market pull, fuel cell systems must meet market-derived economic and technical specifications and be compatible with existing market and fuels infrastructures. Compatibility with the fuels infrastructure is facilitated by a

  3. A Risk Management Architecture for Emergency Integrated Aircraft Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McGlynn, Gregory E.; Litt, Jonathan S.; Lemon, Kimberly A.; Csank, Jeffrey T.

    2011-01-01

    Enhanced engine operation--operation that is beyond normal limits--has the potential to improve the adaptability and safety of aircraft in emergency situations. Intelligent use of enhanced engine operation to improve the handling qualities of the aircraft requires sophisticated risk estimation techniques and a risk management system that spans the flight and propulsion controllers. In this paper, an architecture that weighs the risks of the emergency and of possible engine performance enhancements to reduce overall risk to the aircraft is described. Two examples of emergency situations are presented to demonstrate the interaction between the flight and propulsion controllers to facilitate the enhanced operation.

  4. Identifying risks in the realm of enterprise risk management.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Roberta

    2016-01-01

    An enterprise risk management (ERM) discipline is comprehensive and organization-wide. The effectiveness of ERM is governed in part by the strength and breadth of its practices and processes. An essential element in decision making is a thorough process by which organizational risks and value opportunities can be identified. This article will offer identification techniques that go beyond those used in traditional risk management programs and demonstrate how these techniques can be used to identify risks and opportunity in the ERM environment.

  5. [The relevance of clinical risk management].

    PubMed

    Gulino, Matteo; Vergallo, Gianluca Montanari; Frati, Paola

    2011-01-01

    Medical activity includes a risk of possible injury or complications for the patients, that should drive the Health Care Institutions to introduce and/ or improve clinical Risk management instruments. Although Italy is still lacking a National project of Clinical Risk Management, a number of efforts have been made by different Italian Regions to introduce instruments of risk management. In addition, most of National Health Care Institutions include actually a Department specifically in charge to manage the clinical risk. Despite the practical difficulties, the results obtained until now suggest that the risk management may represent a useful instrument to contribute to the reduction of errors in clinical conduct. Indeed, the introduction of adequate instruments of prevention and management of clinical risk may help to ameliorate the quality of health care Institution services.

  6. An adaptive watershed management assessment based on watershed investigation data.

    PubMed

    Kang, Min Goo; Park, Seung Woo

    2015-05-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the states of watersheds in South Korea and to formulate new measures to improve identified inadequacies. The study focused on the watersheds of the Han River basin and adopted an adaptive watershed management framework. Using data collected during watershed investigation projects, we analyzed the management context of the study basin and identified weaknesses in water use management, flood management, and environmental and ecosystems management in the watersheds. In addition, we conducted an interview survey to obtain experts' opinions on the possible management of watersheds in the future. The results of the assessment show that effective management of the Han River basin requires adaptive watershed management, which includes stakeholders' participation and social learning. Urbanization was the key variable in watershed management of the study basin. The results provide strong guidance for future watershed management and suggest that nonstructural measures are preferred to improve the states of the watersheds and that consistent implementation of the measures can lead to successful watershed management. The results also reveal that governance is essential for adaptive watershed management in the study basin. A special ordinance is necessary to establish governance and aid social learning. Based on the findings, a management process is proposed to support new watershed management practices. The results will be of use to policy makers and practitioners who can implement the measures recommended here in the early stages of adaptive watershed management in the Han River basin. The measures can also be applied to other river basins.

  7. Risk Management. ERIC Digest, Number 86.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gaustad, Joan

    The ordinary conduct of school business is accompanied today by risks that were rare or unknown a few decades ago. This ERIC Digest discusses how risk management, a concept long used by corporate decision makers, can help school boards and administrators conserve their districts' assets. Risk management is a coordinated effort to protect an…

  8. Manejo de riesgo (Risk Management). ERIC Digest.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gaustad, Joan

    The ordinary conduct of school business is accompanied today by risks that were rare or unknown a few decades ago. This ERIC Digest in Spanish discusses how risk management, a concept long used by corporate decision makers, can help school boards and administrators conserve their districts' assets. Risk management is a coordinated effort to…

  9. Marathon run: cardiovascular adaptation and cardiovascular risk.

    PubMed

    Predel, Hans-Georg

    2014-11-21

    The first marathon run as an athletic event took place in the context of the Olympic Games in 1896 in Athens, Greece. Today, participation in a 'marathon run' has become a global phenomenon attracting young professional athletes as well as millions of mainly middle-aged amateur athletes worldwide each year. One of the main motives for these amateur marathon runners is the expectation that endurance exercise (EE) delivers profound beneficial health effects. However, with respect to the cardiovascular system, a controversial debate has emerged whether the marathon run itself is healthy or potentially harmful to the cardiovascular system, especially in middle-aged non-elite male amateur runners. In this cohort, exercise-induced increases in cardiac biomarkers-troponin and brain natriuretic peptide-and acute functional cardiac alterations have been observed and interpreted as potential cardiac damage. Furthermore, in the cohort of 40- to 65-year-old males engaged in intensive EE, a significant risk for the development of atrial fibrillation has been identified. Fortunately, recent studies demonstrated a normalization of the cardiac biomarkers and the functional alterations within a short time frame. Therefore, these alterations may be perceived as physiological myocardial reactions to the strenuous exercise and the term 'cardiac fatigue' has been coined. This interpretation is supported by a recent analysis of 10.9 million marathon runners demonstrating that there was no significantly increased overall risk of cardiac arrest during long-distance running races. In conclusion, intensive and long-lasting EE, e.g. running a full-distance Marathon, results in high cardiovascular strain whose clinical relevance especially for middle-aged and older athletes is unclear and remains a matter of controversy. Furthermore, there is a need for evidence-based recommendations with respect to medical screening and training strategies especially in male amateur runners over the age of

  10. 76 FR 45724 - Clearing Member Risk Management

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-08-01

    ... COMMISSION 17 CFR Parts 1 and 23 RIN 3038-AD51 Clearing Member Risk Management AGENCY: Commodity Futures... management for cleared trades by futures commission merchants, swap dealers, and major swap participants that... extensive regulations addressing open access and risk management at the derivatives clearing...

  11. Probabilistic economic frameworks for disaster risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dulac, Guillaume; Forni, Marc

    2013-04-01

    Starting from the general concept of risk, we set up an economic analysis framework for Disaster Risk Management (DRM) investment. It builds on uncertainty management techniques - notably Monte Carlo simulations - and includes both a risk and performance metrics adapted to recurring issues in disaster risk management as entertained by governments and international organisations. This type of framework proves to be enlightening in several regards, and is thought to ease the promotion of DRM projects as "investments" rather than "costs to be born" and allow for meaningful comparison between DRM and other sectors. We then look at the specificities of disaster risk investments of medium to large scales through this framework, where some "invariants" can be identified, notably: (i) it makes more sense to perform analysis over long-term horizons -space and time scales are somewhat linked; (ii) profiling of the fluctuations of the gains and losses of DRM investments over long periods requires the ability to handle possibly highly volatile variables; (iii) complexity increases with the scale which results in a higher sensitivity of the analytic framework on the results; (iv) as the perimeter of analysis (time, theme and space-wise) is widened, intrinsic parameters of the project tend to weight lighter. This puts DRM in a very different perspective from traditional modelling, which usually builds on more intrinsic features of the disaster as it relates to the scientific knowledge about hazard(s). As models hardly accommodate for such complexity or "data entropy" (they require highly structured inputs), there is a need for a complementary approach to understand risk at global scale. The proposed framework suggests opting for flexible ad hoc modelling of specific issues consistent with one's objective, risk and performance metrics. Such tailored solutions are strongly context-dependant (time and budget, sensitivity of the studied variable in the economic framework) and can

  12. COMMUNICATING PROBABILISTIC RISK OUTCOMES TO RISK MANAGERS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Increasingly, risk assessors are moving away from simple deterministic assessments to probabilistic approaches that explicitly incorporate ecological variability, measurement imprecision, and lack of knowledge (collectively termed "uncertainty"). While the new methods provide an...

  13. [Risk management in cardiac anesthesia].

    PubMed

    Inada, Eiichi

    2008-05-01

    Cardiac anesthesia carries high risk because of the patient's cardiac and coexisting diseases and rapid and complex hemodynamic changes during surgery. We should be ready to treat hemodynamic changes which may rapidly deteriorate into a vicious cycle. Many potent drugs and life-support devices are used. The drugs should be properly labeled to avoid drug error. Prefilled drug syringes and ready-to-use bags are helpful to avoid mixture error. Syringe and infusion pumps should be properly set. All the infusion systems should be checked in a systematical way. Blood management including blood transfusion and coagulation is important. Heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT) may cause thrombosis. Heparin and heparin-coated catheter should be avoided in patients with HIT. Causes of bleeding tendency should be sort out and treated accordingly. Protamine reactions including hypotension and pulmonary hypertension can be catastrophic. Lastly, intimate communication between surgeons, anesthesiologists, medical engineers, and nurses is essential to perform cardiac surgery safely.

  14. Managing Research in a Risk World

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anton, W.; Havenhill, M.

    2014-01-01

    The Office of Chief Medical Officer (OCHMO) owns all human health and performance risks managed by the Human System Risk Board (HSRB). While the HSRB manages the risks, the Human Research Program (HRP) manages the research portion of the overall risk mitigation strategy for these risks. The HSRB manages risks according to a process that identifies and analyzes risks, plans risk mitigation and tracks and reviews the implementation of these strategies according to its decisions pertaining to the OCHMO risk posture. HRP manages risk research work using an architecture that describes evidence-based risks, gaps in our knowledge about characterizing or mitigating the risk, and the tasks needed to produce deliverables to fill the gaps and reduce the risk. A planning schedule reflecting expected research milestones is developed, and as deliverables and new evidence are generated, research progress is tracked via the Path to Risk Reduction (PRR) that reflects a risk's research plan for a design reference mission. HRP's risk research process closely interfaces with the HSRB risk management process. As research progresses, new deliverables and evidence are used by the HSRB in conjunction with other operational and non-research evidence to inform decisions pertaining to the likelihood and consequence of the risk and risk posture. Those decisions in turn guide forward work for research as it contributes to overall risk mitigation strategies. As HRP tracks its research work, it aligns its priorities by assessing the effectiveness of its contributions and maintaining specific core competencies that would be invaluable for future work for exploration missions.

  15. Adapting livestock management to spatio-temporal heterogeneity in semi-arid rangelands.

    PubMed

    Jakoby, O; Quaas, M F; Baumgärtner, S; Frank, K

    2015-10-01

    Management strategies in rotational grazing systems differ in their level of complexity and adaptivity. Different components of such grazing strategies are expected to allow for adaptation to environmental heterogeneities in space and time. However, most models investigating general principles of rangeland management strategies neglect spatio-temporal system properties including seasonality and spatial heterogeneity of environmental variables. We developed an ecological-economic rangeland model that combines a spatially explicit farm structure with intra-annual time steps. This allows investigating different management components in rotational grazing systems (including stocking and rotation rules) and evaluating their effect on the ecological and economic states of semi-arid grazing systems. Our results show that adaptive stocking is less sensitive to overstocking compared to a constant stocking strategy. Furthermore, the rotation rule becomes important only at stocking numbers that maximize expected income. Altogether, the best of the tested strategies is adaptive stocking combined with a rotation that adapts to both spatial forage availability and seasonality. This management strategy maximises mean income and at the same time maintains the rangeland in a viable condition. However, we could also show that inappropriate adaptation that neglects seasonality even leads to deterioration. Rangelands characterised by higher inter-annual climate variability show a higher risk of income losses under a non-adaptive stocking rule, and non-adaptive rotation is least able to buffer increasing climate variability. Overall, all important system properties including seasonality and spatial heterogeneity of available resources need to be considered when designing an appropriate rangeland management system. Resulting adaptive rotational grazing strategies can be valuable for improving management and mitigating income risks.

  16. Continuous Risk Management: A NASA Program Initiative

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hammer, Theodore F.; Rosenberg, Linda

    1999-01-01

    NPG 7120.5A, "NASA Program and Project Management Processes and Requirements" enacted in April, 1998, requires that "The program or project manager shall apply risk management principles..." The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to comply with this edict. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This presentation will briefly discuss the six functions for risk management: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions.

  17. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  18. Reducing uncertainty about objective functions in adaptive management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, B.K.

    2012-01-01

    This paper extends the uncertainty framework of adaptive management to include uncertainty about the objectives to be used in guiding decisions. Adaptive decision making typically assumes explicit and agreed-upon objectives for management, but allows for uncertainty as to the structure of the decision process that generates change through time. Yet it is not unusual for there to be uncertainty (or disagreement) about objectives, with different stakeholders expressing different views not only about resource responses to management but also about the appropriate management objectives. In this paper I extend the treatment of uncertainty in adaptive management, and describe a stochastic structure for the joint occurrence of uncertainty about objectives as well as models, and show how adaptive decision making and the assessment of post-decision monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties of both kinds. Different degrees of association between model and objective uncertainty lead to different patterns of learning about objectives. ?? 2011.

  19. Business resilience: Reframing healthcare risk management.

    PubMed

    Simeone, Cynthia L

    2015-09-01

    The responsibility of risk management in healthcare is fractured, with multiple stakeholders. Most hospitals and healthcare systems do not have a fully integrated risk management system that spans the entire organizational and operational structure for the delivery of key services. This article provides insight toward utilizing a comprehensive Business Resilience program and associated methodology to understand and manage organizational risk leading to organizational effectiveness and operational efficiencies, with the fringe benefit of realizing sustainable operational capability during adverse conditions.

  20. Managing financial risk with options on futures.

    PubMed

    Bond, M T; Marshall, B S

    1995-05-01

    With the rise of managed care and capitation, more providers will be sharing in the financial risk of providing care. To help protect their organizations from the risk of unexpectedly high utilization under such a fixed-payment system, healthcare financial managers soon will be able to use options on futures contracts. These contracts provide wide profit potential but limited loss potential. Before investing in options on futures, however, healthcare financial managers should consider issues such as basis risk and trading costs.

  1. Risk Management for the International Space Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sebastian, J.; Brezovic, Philip

    2002-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) is an extremely complex system, both technically and programmatically. The Space Station must support a wide range of payloads and missions. It must be launched in numerous launch packages and be safely assembled and operated in the harsh environment of space. It is being designed and manufactured by many organizations, including the prime contractor, Boeing, the NASA institutions, and international partners and their contractors. Finally, the ISS has multiple customers, (e.g., the Administration, Congress, users, public, international partners, etc.) with contrasting needs and constraints. It is the ISS Risk Management Office strategy to proactively and systematically manages risks to help ensure ISS Program success. ISS program follows integrated risk management process (both quantitative and qualitative) and is integrated into ISS project management. The process and tools are simple and seamless and permeate to the lowest levels (at a level where effective management can be realized) and follows the continuous risk management methodology. The risk process assesses continually what could go wrong (risks), determine which risks need to be managed, implement strategies to deal with those risks, and measure effectiveness of the implemented strategies. The process integrates all facets of risk including cost, schedule and technical aspects. Support analysis risk tools like PRA are used to support programatic decisions and assist in analyzing risks.

  2. Lessons in risk- versus resilience-based design and management.

    PubMed

    Park, Jeryang; Seager, Thomas P; Rao, P Suresh C

    2011-07-01

    The implications of recent catastrophic disasters, including the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, reach well beyond the immediate, direct environmental and human health risks. In a complex coupled system, disruptions from natural disasters and man-made accidents can quickly propagate through a complex chain of networks to cause unpredictable failures in other economic or social networks and other parts of the world. Recent disasters have revealed the inadequacy of a classical risk management approach. This study calls for a new resilience-based design and management paradigm that draws upon the ecological analogues of diversity and adaptation in response to low-probability and high-consequence disruptions.

  3. Could human cold adaptation decrease the risk of cardiovascular disease?

    PubMed

    Kralova Lesna, I; Rychlikova, J; Vavrova, L; Vybiral, S

    2015-08-01

    The impact of repeated exposure to cold and cold adaptation on human cardiovascular health is not fully understood. The aim of the study was to determine the effect of cold adaptation on cardiovascular risk factors, thyroid hormones and the capacity of humans to reset the damaging effect of oxidative stress. Ten well cold-adapted winter swimmers (CA) and 16 non-adapted controls (CON) were enroled in this experiment to test whether cold adaptation could influence the parameters of lipoprotein metabolism, cholesterol efflux capacity (CEC), homocysteine, thyroid hormones, antioxidant defence markers (reduced glutathione (GSH), glutathione peroxidase 1 (GPX1), glutathione reductase (GR), catalase (CAT) and paraoxonase 1 (PON1)) and oxidative stress markers (concentration of conjugated dienes (CD)). A decreased apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A1 (ApoB/ApoA1) ratio was found in the CA group (p<0.05), but other lipoprotein parameters, including CEC, did not differ significantly. Plasma homocysteine was lower in CA subjects in comparison with controls (p<0.05). Higher triiodothyronine (T3) values were observed in the CA compared to the CON (p<0.05) group, but TSH and other thyroid hormones did not differ between both groups. CA subjects had lower activity of GPX1 (p<0.05), lower concentrations of CD (p<0.05) and increased activities of PON1 (p<0.001) compared to CON subjects. A trend for decreased activity of CAT (p=0.06) in CA compared to CON groups was also observed, but GSH levels did not differ significantly. Zn concentration was higher in the CA group than in the CON group (p<0.001). Human cold adaptation can influence oxidative stress markers. Trends towards the improvement of cardiovascular risk factors in cold-adapted subjects also indicate the positive effect of cold adaptation on cardio-protective mechanisms. PMID:26267514

  4. [The management of risks by the global risk analysis].

    PubMed

    Desroches, A

    2013-05-01

    After a reminder on the fundamental concepts of the management of risk, the author describes the overall analysis of risk (AGR), name given by the author to the up-to-date APR method which after several changes of the initial process aims to cover a perimeter of analysis and broader management both at the level of structural that business risks of any kind throughout the system development life cycle, of the study of its feasibility to dismantling.

  5. ESMD Risk Management Workshop: Systems Engineering and Integration Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, L. Dale

    2005-01-01

    This report has been developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Risk Management team in close coordination with the Systems Engineering Team. This document provides a point-in-time, cumulative, summary of key lessons learned derived from the SE RFP Development process. Lessons learned invariably address challenges and risks and the way in which these areas have been addressed. Accordingly the risk management thread is woven throughout the document.

  6. Sustaining a Mature Risk Management Process: Ensuring the International Space Station for a Vibrant Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raftery, Michael; Carter-Journet, Katrina

    2013-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) risk management methodology is an example of a mature and sustainable process. Risk management is a systematic approach used to proactively identify, analyze, plan, track, control, communicate, and document risks to help management make risk-informed decisions that increase the likelihood of achieving program objectives. The ISS has been operating in space for over 14 years and permanently crewed for over 12 years. It is the longest surviving habitable vehicle in low Earth orbit history. Without a mature and proven risk management plan, it would be increasingly difficult to achieve mission success throughout the life of the ISS Program. A successful risk management process must be able to adapt to a dynamic program. As ISS program-level decision processes have evolved, so too has the ISS risk management process continued to innovate, improve, and adapt. Constant adaptation of risk management tools and an ever-improving process is essential to the continued success of the ISS Program. Above all, sustained support from program management is vital to risk management continued effectiveness. Risk management is valued and stressed as an important process by the ISS Program.

  7. An introduction to adaptive management for threatened and endangered species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, Michael C.

    2011-01-01

    Management of threatened and endangered species would seem to be a perfect context for adaptive management. Many of the decisions are recurrent and plagued by uncertainty, exactly the conditions that warrant an adaptive approach. But although the potential of adaptive management in these settings has been extolled, there are limited applications in practice. The impediments to practical implementation are manifold and include semantic confusion, institutional inertia, misperceptions about the suitability and utility, and a lack of guiding examples. In this special section of the Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management, we hope to reinvigorate the appropriate application of adaptive management for threatened and endangered species by framing such management in a decision-analytical context, clarifying misperceptions, classifying the types of decisions that might be amenable to an adaptive approach, and providing three fully developed case studies. In this overview paper, I define terms, review the past application of adaptive management, challenge perceived hurdles, and set the stage for the case studies which follow.

  8. ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

    Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

  9. Sustainability appraisal and flood risk management

    SciTech Connect

    Carter, Jeremy G. White, Iain Richards, Juliet

    2009-01-15

    This research establishes that sustainability appraisal (SA) has a role to play in strengthening spatial plans in the context of flooding issues. Indeed, evidence has been gathered to indicate that tentative steps are being taken in this direction during the SA of English regional spatial plans, which are used as an illustrative case study. In England as in many other countries, appraisal procedures including SA and strategic environmental assessment (SEA) are enshrined in planning law. An opportunity therefore exists to utilise existing and familiar planning tools to embed flooding considerations within spatial plans at an early stage in the planning process. SA (and similar appraisal tools such as SEA) can therefore usefully aid in the implementation of decision making principles and government policy relating to flooding. Moreover, with the threats associated with climate change becoming increasingly apparent, of which increased flood risk is a particular concern in many countries, there is a need develop appropriate adaptation responses. This article emphasizes the role that SA can play in managing future flood risk in this context.

  10. Overview of Risk Management for Engineered Nanomaterials

    PubMed Central

    Schulte, PA; Geraci, CL; Hodson, LL; Zumwalde, RD; Kuempel, ED; Murashov, V; Martinez, KF; Heidel, DS

    2015-01-01

    Occupational exposure to engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) is considered a new and challenging occurrence. Preliminary information from laboratory studies indicates that workers exposed to some kinds of ENMs could be at risk of adverse health effects. To protect the nanomaterial workforce, a precautionary risk management approach is warranted and given the newness of ENMs and emergence of nanotechnology, a naturalistic view of risk management is useful. Employers have the primary responsibility for providing a safe and healthy workplace. This is achieved by identifying and managing risks which include recognition of hazards, assessing exposures, characterizing actual risk, and implementing measures to control those risks. Following traditional risk management models for nanomaterials is challenging because of uncertainties about the nature of hazards, issues in exposure assessment, questions about appropriate control methods, and lack of occupational exposure limits (OELs) or nano-specific regulations. In the absence of OELs specific for nanomaterials, a precautionary approach has been recommended in many countries. The precautionary approach entails minimizing exposures by using engineering controls and personal protective equipment (PPE). Generally, risk management utilizes the hierarchy of controls. Ideally, risk management for nanomaterials should be part of an enterprise-wide risk management program or system and this should include both risk control and a medical surveillance program that assesses the frequency of adverse effects among groups of workers exposed to nanomaterials. In some cases, the medical surveillance could include medical screening of individual workers to detect early signs of work-related illnesses. All medical surveillance should be used to assess the effectiveness of risk management; however, medical surveillance should be considered as a second line of defense to ensure that implemented risk management practices are effective. PMID

  11. Overview of Risk Management for Engineered Nanomaterials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schulte, P. A.; Geraci, C. L.; Hodson, L. L.; Zumwalde, R. D.; Kuempel, E. D.; Murashov, V.; Martinez, K. F.; Heidel, D. S.

    2013-04-01

    Occupational exposure to engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) is considered a new and challenging occurrence. Preliminary information from laboratory studies indicates that workers exposed to some kinds of ENMs could be at risk of adverse health effects. To protect the nanomaterial workforce, a precautionary risk management approach is warranted and given the newness of ENMs and emergence of nanotechnology, a naturalistic view of risk management is useful. Employers have the primary responsibility for providing a safe and healthy workplace. This is achieved by identifying and managing risks which include recognition of hazards, assessing exposures, characterizing actual risk, and implementing measures to control those risks. Following traditional risk management models for nanomaterials is challenging because of uncertainties about the nature of hazards, issues in exposure assessment, questions about appropriate control methods, and lack of occupational exposure limits (OELs) or nano-specific regulations. In the absence of OELs specific for nanomaterials, a precautionary approach has been recommended in many countries. The precautionary approach entails minimizing exposures by using engineering controls and personal protective equipment (PPE). Generally, risk management utilizes the hierarchy of controls. Ideally, risk management for nanomaterials should be part of an enterprise-wide risk management program or system and this should include both risk control and a medical surveillance program that assesses the frequency of adverse effects among groups of workers exposed to nanomaterials. In some cases, the medical surveillance could include medical screening of individual workers to detect early signs of work-related illnesses. All medical surveillance should be used to assess the effectiveness of risk management; however, medical surveillance should be considered as a second line of defense to ensure that implemented risk management practices are effective.

  12. Effects of Culturally Adapted Parent Management Training on Latino Youth Behavioral Health Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martinez, Charles R.; Eddy, J. Mark

    2005-01-01

    A randomized experimental test of the implementation feasibility and the efficacy of a culturally adapted Parent Management Training intervention was conducted with a sample of 73 Spanish-speaking Latino parents with middle-school-aged youth at risk for problem behaviors. Intervention feasibility was evaluated through weekly parent satisfaction…

  13. Rangeland management strategies for adapting to climatic variability: Enhancing the positive and mitigating the negative effects

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Rangeland management strategies for adapting to climatic variability are needed to reduce enterprise risk, increase resilience of rangeland/grassland ecosystems and deliver sustainable provision of ecosystem goods (e.g., livestock production) and services (e.g., wildlife habitat) from western North ...

  14. National Ignition Facility Risk Management Plan

    SciTech Connect

    Brereton, S.J.

    1997-02-01

    The NIF Risk Management Plan has been prepared in accordance with the DOE Life Cycle Asset Management Good Practice Guide to support Critical Decision 3 of the NIF Project. The objectives of the plan are to: 1) identify the risks to the completion of the Project in terms of meeting technical and regulatory requirements, cost, and schedule, 2) assess the risks in terms of likelihood of occurrence and their impact potential relative to technical performance, ES&H (environment, safety and health), costs, and schedule, and 3) address each identified risk in terms of suitable risk mitigation measures. The documents that form the basis for this risk assessment are as follows: 1. Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement for Stockpile Stewardship and Management (DOE, 1996a) and Record of Decision (DOE, 1996b), 2. Preliminary Hazards Analysis (Brereton, 1993), 3. Fire Hazards Analysis (Jensen, 1997), 4. Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (LLNL, 1996a), 5. Reliability, Availability and Maintainability Report, 6. Radiation Protection Evaluation, 7. Primary Criteria and Functional Requirements (LLNL, 1996b), 8. Project Execution Plan (DOE, 1996c), 9. Schedule Risk Assessment, 10. Construction Safety Program (LLNL, 1997), 11. Title I Design Media, 12. Congressional Data Sheet. The process used in developing this plan was to form a Risk Assessment team of knowledgeable project personnel. This included: Assurances Manager, Systems Integration Manager, Project Control Manager, a Risk Management consultant, Deputy Associate Project Engineer for Activation and Start-up (Co-chairperson), and Lead Engineer for Safety Analysis (Co-chairperson). They were familiar with the risk basis documents and developed a list of the key risk elements. A methodology for assigning likelihoods, consequences, and risks was developed. Risk elements were then reviewed, and likelihoods, consequences, and risks were assigned. Risk mitigation measures were then developed. Comments were obtained

  15. Transcultural adaptation of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool

    PubMed Central

    Martinez, Maria Carmen; Iwamoto, Viviane Ernesto; Latorre, Maria do Rosário Dias de Oliveira; Noronha, Adriana Moreira; Oliveira, Ana Paula de Sousa; Cardoso, Carlos Eduardo Alves; Marques, Ifigenia Augusta Braga; Vendramim, Patrícia; Lopes, Paula Cristina; de Sant'Ana, Thais Helena Saes

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective: to perform the transcultural adaptation and content validity analysis of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool to assess both fall risk and fall-related injury risk for hospitalized elderly in Brazil. Method: the transcultural adaptation consisted of translating the scale to Portuguese (Brazil), back-translating it into its language of origin, establishing a consensus version, and having an expert committee verify its transcultural equivalence. Content assessment was conducted by a committee of judges, ending with the calculation of the items and scales' content validity index. Nurses tested the tool. Results: the scale's translated version went through two evaluation rounds by the judges, based on which, the items with unsatisfactory performance were changed. The content validity index for the items was ≥80.0% and the global index 97.1%. The experimental application showed the scale is user-friendly. Conclusion: the scale presents valid content for the assessment of fall risk and risk of fall-related injuries and is easy to use, with the potential to contribute to the proper identification of risks and the establishment of care actions. PMID:27579936

  16. Fire risk and adaptation strategies in Northern Eurasian forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shvidenko, Anatoly; Schepaschenko, Dmitry

    2013-04-01

    permafrost areas. Overall, Russia should expect a disproportionate escalation of fire regimes compared to increasing climatic fire danger. Thus, development and implementation of an efficient adaptation strategy is a pressing problem of current forest management of the country. An appropriate system of forest fire protection which would be able to meet challenges of future climates is a corner stone of such a strategy. We consider possible systems solutions of this complex problem including (1) integrated ecological and socio-economic analysis of current and future fire regimes; (2) regional requirements to and specific features of a new paradigm of forest fire protection in the boreal zone of Northern Eurasia; (3) anticipatory strategy of the prevention of large-scale disturbances in forests, including adaptation of forest landscapes to the future climates (regulation of tree composition; setup of relevant spatial structure of forest landscapes; etc.); (4) implementation of an effective system of forest monitoring as part of integrated observing systems; (5) transition to ecologically-friendly systems of industrial development of northern territories; (6) development of new/ improvement of existing legislation and institutional frameworks of forest management which would be satisfactory to react on challenges of climate change; and (6) international cooperation.

  17. Identifying risks in the realm of enterprise risk management.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Roberta

    2016-01-01

    An enterprise risk management (ERM) discipline is comprehensive and organization-wide. The effectiveness of ERM is governed in part by the strength and breadth of its practices and processes. An essential element in decision making is a thorough process by which organizational risks and value opportunities can be identified. This article will offer identification techniques that go beyond those used in traditional risk management programs and demonstrate how these techniques can be used to identify risks and opportunity in the ERM environment. PMID:26789745

  18. Occupational safety risk management in Australian mining.

    PubMed

    Joy, J

    2004-08-01

    In the past 15 years, there has been a major safety improvement in the Australian mining industry. Part of this change can be attributed to the development and application of risk assessment methods. These systematic, team-based techniques identify, assess and control unacceptable risks to people, assets, the environment and production. The outcomes have improved mine management systems. This paper discusses the risk assessment approach applied to equipment design and mining operations, as well as the specific risk assessment methodology. The paper also discusses the reactive side of risk management, incident and accident investigation. Systematic analytical methods have also been adopted by regulatory authorities and mining companies to investigate major losses.

  19. The synergy of quality management & risk management in home care.

    PubMed

    Rhinehart, E

    1996-09-01

    For a number of years the health care risk management industry has been addressing unplanned and unanticipated adverse events. Organizations that are proactive in their approach to risk and quality management will have big payoffs in clinical quality improvement, service quality improvement, employee satisfaction, and customer satisfaction. PMID:10160154

  20. [Does clinical risk management require a structured conflict management?].

    PubMed

    Neumann, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    A key element of clinical risk management is the analysis of errors causing near misses or patient damage. After analyzing the causes and circumstances, measures for process improvement have to be taken. Process management, human resource development and other established methods are used. If an interpersonal conflict is a contributory factor to the error, there is usually no structured conflict management available which includes selection criteria for various methods of conflict processing. The European University Viadrina in Frankfurt (Oder) has created a process model for introducing a structured conflict management system which is suitable for hospitals and could fill the gap in the methodological spectrum of clinical risk management. There is initial evidence that a structured conflict management reduces staff fluctuation and hidden conflict costs. This article should be understood as an impulse for discussion on to what extent the range of methods of clinical risk management should be complemented by conflict management.

  1. Risk Management In Perspective Of Knowledge Management A Brief Survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rehman, Zobia; Kifor, Claudiu V.

    2015-09-01

    This article explains the application of knowledge management for project risk management in industry. Combination of knowledge management and risk management is becoming a dire need for industries nowadays, because it has become necessary to make information reach timely to its destined users to achieve the desired goals. Quick decisions are needed throughout a project life cycle to mitigate or avoid a risk, but they are only possible when knowledge about it is in hand and can be inferred for fruitful decisions. Quality engineers make huge effort in analyzing and mitigating the risk and prepare various documents about different risk management stages. But this knowledge resides in documents or underutilized databases without any relation to each other that makes it useless for complex decision making. This article shall explain how knowledge management activities are helpful in risk management and the advantages of their fusion. It will also present a conceptual architecture of an Information Technology based solution for risk management and knowledge management combination.

  2. Ensuring Success of Adaptive Control Research Through Project Lifecycle Risk Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pavlock, Kate M.

    2011-01-01

    Lessons Learne: 1. Design-out unnecessary risk to prevent excessive mitigation management during flight. 2. Consider iterative checkouts to confirm or improve human factor characteristics. 3. Consider the total flight test profile to uncover unanticipated human-algorithm interactions. 4. Consider test card cadence as a metric to assess test readiness. 5. Full-scale flight test is critical to development, maturation, and acceptance of adaptive control laws for operational use.

  3. Adaptive and maladaptive personality traits in high-risk gamblers.

    PubMed

    Carlotta, Davide; Krueger, Robert F; Markon, Kristian E; Borroni, Serena; Frera, Fernanda; Somma, Antonella; Maffei, Cesare; Fossati, Andrea

    2015-06-01

    Gambling Disorder (GD) is an addictive disorder resulting in significant impairment in occupational and social functioning. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship of GD risk to adaptive and maladaptive personality dimensions in a sample of nonreferred Italian gamblers. The authors found the risk for GD to show significant associations with the Openness and Conscientiousness scales of the Big Five Inventory (BFI); however, these effects were not significant after controlling for alcohol and drug use. GD risk showed significant associations with the Detachment and Antagonism domains of the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 (PID-5), as well as with the PID-5 facet scales of Hostility, Callousness, Deceitfulness, Manipulativeness, Irresponsibility, and (low) Rigid Perfectionism, even when controlling for alcohol and drug use. Maladaptive personality dispositions may serve as risk factors for pathological gambling, even beyond their impact on frequently concomitant problems with alcohol and other drugs.

  4. Vascular risk management through nurse-led self-management programs.

    PubMed

    Sol, Berna G M; van der Bijl, Jaap J; Banga, Jan-Dirk; Visseren, Frank L J

    2005-03-01

    In current clinical practice, adequate cardiovascular risk reduction is difficult to achieve. Treatment is primarily focused on clinical vascular disease and not on long-term risk reduction. Pertinent to success in vascular risk reduction are proper medication use, weight control, healthy food choices, smoking cessation, and physical exercise. Atherosclerotic vascular disease and its risk constitute a chronic condition, which poses specific requirements on affected patients and caregivers who should be aware of the chronicity. In patients with vascular disease, there is lack of awareness of their chronic condition because of the invisibility of most risk factors. In other patient groups with chronic illness, self-management programs were successful in achieving behavioral change. This strategy can also be useful for patients with vascular disease to adapt and adhere to an improved lifestyle. Self-management refers to the individual's ability to manage both physical and psychosocial consequences including lifestyle changes inherent to living with a chronic condition. Interventions that promote self-management are based on enhancing self-efficacy. In self-management, attention can be given to what is important and motivational to the individual patient. In this article the challenge of nursing care promoting self-management for patients with vascular risk and how this care can be applied will be explained. Nurses can play a central role in vascular risk management with a self-management approach for patients with chronic vascular disease. In vascular prevention clinics, nursing care can be delivered that includes medical treatment of vascular risks (hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, hyperglycemia, and hyperhomocystinemia) and counseling on promoting self-management (changes in diet, body weight, smoking habits, and level of exercise). Nursing interventions based on self-management promotion can provide a new and promising approach to actually achieve vascular risk

  5. Minimum-Risk Path Finding by an Adaptive Amoebal Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakagaki, Toshiyuki; Iima, Makoto; Ueda, Tetsuo; Nishiura, Yasumasa; Saigusa, Tetsu; Tero, Atsushi; Kobayashi, Ryo; Showalter, Kenneth

    2007-08-01

    When two food sources are presented to the slime mold Physarum in the dark, a thick tube for absorbing nutrients is formed that connects the food sources through the shortest route. When the light-avoiding organism is partially illuminated, however, the tube connecting the food sources follows a different route. Defining risk as the experimentally measurable rate of light-avoiding movement, the minimum-risk path is exhibited by the organism, determined by integrating along the path. A model for an adaptive-tube network is presented that is in good agreement with the experimental observations.

  6. The Troll HSE Risk Management System

    SciTech Connect

    Wiig, E.; Berthelsen, I.; Donovan, K.

    1996-12-31

    The Petroleum Act and Internal Control regulations in Norway lay down requirements for how HSE shall be Managed and documented. To comply with the Norwegian legislation the Troll Project has developed an HSE Risk Management System (RMS) structured around Hazards and Effects Management. The resulting quality, technical and operating integrity, and HSE performance are an endorsement of the power of RMS.

  7. Protocol and practice in the adaptive management of waterfowl harvests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, F.; Williams, K.

    1999-01-01

    Waterfowl harvest management in North America, for all its success, historically has had several shortcomings, including a lack of well-defined objectives, a failure to account for uncertain management outcomes, and inefficient use of harvest regulations to understand the effects of management. To address these and other concerns, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service began implementation of adaptive harvest management in 1995. Harvest policies are now developed using a Markov decision process in which there is an explicit accounting for uncontrolled environmental variation, partial controllability of harvest, and structural uncertainty in waterfowl population dynamics. Current policies are passively adaptive, in the sense that any reduction in structural uncertainty is an unplanned by-product of the regulatory process. A generalization of the Markov decision process permits the calculation of optimal actively adaptive policies, but it is not yet clear how state-specific harvest actions differ between passive and active approaches. The Markov decision process also provides managers the ability to explore optimal levels of aggregation or "management scale" for regulating harvests in a system that exhibits high temporal, spatial, and organizational variability. Progress in institutionalizing adaptive harvest management has been remarkable, but some managers still perceive the process as a panacea, while failing to appreciate the challenges presented by this more explicit and methodical approach to harvest regulation. Technical hurdles include the need to develop better linkages between population processes and the dynamics of landscapes, and to model the dynamics of structural uncertainty in a more comprehensive fashion. From an institutional perspective, agreement on how to value and allocate harvests continues to be elusive, and there is some evidence that waterfowl managers have overestimated the importance of achievement-oriented factors in setting hunting

  8. The Value of Adaptive Regret Management in Retirement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farquhar, Jamie C.; Wrosch, Carsten; Pushkar, Dolores; Li, Karen Z. H.

    2013-01-01

    This 3-year longitudinal study examined the associations between regret management, everyday activities, and retirement satisfaction among recent retirees. We hypothesized that the regulation of a severe life regret can facilitate activity engagement and retirement satisfaction, but only if retirees manage their regrets adaptively by either…

  9. Engaging stakeholders for adaptive management using structured decision analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Irwin, Elise R.; Kathryn, D.; Kennedy, Mickett

    2009-01-01

    Adaptive management is different from other types of management in that it includes all stakeholders (versus only policy makers) in the process, uses resource optimization techniques to evaluate competing objectives, and recognizes and attempts to reduce uncertainty inherent in natural resource systems. Management actions are negotiated by stakeholders, monitored results are compared to predictions of how the system should respond, and management strategies are adjusted in a “monitor-compare-adjust” iterative routine. Many adaptive management projects fail because of the lack of stakeholder identification, engagement, and continued involvement. Primary reasons for this vary but are usually related to either stakeholders not having ownership (or representation) in decision processes or disenfranchisement of stakeholders after adaptive management begins. We present an example in which stakeholders participated fully in adaptive management of a southeastern regulated river. Structured decision analysis was used to define management objectives and stakeholder values and to determine initial flow prescriptions. The process was transparent, and the visual nature of the modeling software allowed stakeholders to see how their interests and values were represented in the decision process. The development of a stakeholder governance structure and communication mechanism has been critical to the success of the project.

  10. Managing Adaptive Challenges: Learning with Principals in Bermuda and Florida

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drago-Severson, Eleanor; Maslin-Ostrowski, Patricia; Hoffman, Alexander M.; Barbaro, Justin

    2014-01-01

    We interviewed eight principals from Bermuda and Florida about how they identify and manage their most pressing challenges. Their challenges are composed of both adaptive and technical work, requiring leaders to learn to diagnose and manage them. Challenges focused on change and were traced to accountability contexts, yet accountability was not…

  11. Adapting California Water Management to Climate Change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanak, E.; Lund, J. R.

    2010-12-01

    institutional constraints limit the ability to change reservoir operations, raise funds for flood works, prevent development in flood-prone areas, and encourage use of flood insurance. Needed reforms include forward-looking reservoir operation planning and floodplain mapping, less restrictive rules for raising local flood assessments, and improved public information on flood risks. For water quality, an urgent priority is better science. Climate change is likely to have far-reaching implications for water regulations and management, but we remain at an embryonic state of knowledge about these future changes. We will have to make policy, planning, and operational decisions without perfect knowledge of how much the climate is changing. Although local agencies are central players in all aspects of water management, adaptation will require strong-willed state leadership to shape institutions, incentives, and regulations capable of responding to change. Cooperation of federal agencies will be essential, given the important roles they play in flood management, environmental regulation, and water supply, particularly in the Delta.

  12. Adapting livestock behaviour to achieve management goals

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Using livestock to efficiently achieve management goals requires melding animal behavior with mechanical and electronic equipment. Practices such as autonomously obtaining individual animal liveweight when combined with individual animal electronic identification can produce numerous cost saving ad...

  13. Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change

    PubMed Central

    Nicol, Sam; Fuller, Richard A.; Iwamura, Takuya; Chadès, Iadine

    2015-01-01

    Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this is the fear of making the wrong decisions caused by the myriad future scenarios presented to decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method for optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple future scenarios and continually learns the best management strategy from observations, even as conditions change. We demonstrate the performance of our AM approach by applying it to the spatial management of migratory shorebird habitats on the East Asian–Australasian flyway, predicted to be severely impacted by future sea-level rise. By accounting for non-stationary dynamics, our solution protects 25 000 more birds per year than the current best stationary approach. Our approach can be applied to many ecological systems that require efficient adaptation strategies for an uncertain future. PMID:25972463

  14. Risk perception as a driver for risk management policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carmona, María; Mañez, María

    2016-04-01

    Risk is generally defined as the "combination of the probability of the occurrence of an event and its negative consequences" ( UNISDR, 2009). However, the perception of a risk differs among cultures regarding different features such as the context,causes, benefits or damage. Risk perception is the subjective valuation of the probability of an event happening and how concerned individuals or groups are with the consequences (Sjöberg, 2004). Our study is based on an existing framework for risk perception (Rehn and Rohrmann, 2000). We analyse the characteristics of the risk perception regarding extreme events (e.g.droughts) and how the perception of the group drives the action to manage the risk. We do this to achieve an overview of the conditions that let stakeholders join each other to improve risk management especially when governments are not reacting properly. For our research, attention is paid on risk perception of Multi-Sector Partnerships not taking into account the individual level of risk perception. We focus on those factors that make risk management effective and increase resilience. Multi-Sector Partnerships, considered as significant governance structures for risk management, might contribute to reduce vulnerability in prone areas to natural hazards and disasters. The Multi-Sector Partnerships used for our research are existing partnerships identified in the cases studies of the European project ENHANCE. We implement a survey to analyse the perception of risk in the case studies. That survey is based on the Cultural Theory (Douglas and Wildavsky, 1982)and the Protection Motivation Theory (Rogers, 1975). We analyse the results using the Qualitative-Comparative Analysis proposed by Ragin in 1987. The results show the main characteristics of a risk culture that are beneficial to manage a risk. Those characteristics are shaped by the perception of risk of the people involved in the partnership, which in turn shapes their risk management. Nevertheless, we

  15. Improving Voluntary Environmental Management Programs: Facilitating Learning and Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Genskow, Kenneth D.; Wood, Danielle M.

    2011-05-01

    Environmental planners and managers face unique challenges understanding and documenting the effectiveness of programs that rely on voluntary actions by private landowners. Programs, such as those aimed at reducing nonpoint source pollution or improving habitat, intend to reach those goals by persuading landowners to adopt behaviors and management practices consistent with environmental restoration and protection. Our purpose with this paper is to identify barriers for improving voluntary environmental management programs and ways to overcome them. We first draw upon insights regarding data, learning, and adaptation from the adaptive management and performance management literatures, describing three key issues: overcoming information constraints, structural limitations, and organizational culture. Although these lessons are applicable to a variety of voluntary environmental management programs, we then present the issues in the context of on-going research for nonpoint source water quality pollution. We end the discussion by highlighting important elements for advancing voluntary program efforts.

  16. Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, D. L.

    2015-01-01

    Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

  17. Risk management information for HIV infection.

    PubMed

    Edwards, A J

    1990-01-01

    This article discusses HIV infection in terms of the risk manager's information needs in the health care environment. The malpractice problem, increasing workman's compensation suits, the greater role of the ombudsman, implementation of the National Practitioner Data Bank, and the Joint Commission on Accreditation of Health Care Organizations' (JCAHO) emphasis on clinical excellence are conditions which have given greater importance to the risk manager's position. Included in this article are hedges to retrieve various components of risk management and a select bibliography from AIDSLINE.

  18. The Xyrem risk management program.

    PubMed

    Fuller, David E; Hornfeldt, Carl S; Kelloway, Judy S; Stahl, Pamela J; Anderson, Todd F

    2004-01-01

    Sodium oxybate, also known as gamma-hydroxybutyric acid (GHB), was discovered in 1960 and has been described both as a therapeutic agent with high medical value and, more recently, a substance of abuse. The naturally occurring form of this drug is found in various body tissues but has been studied most extensively in the CNS where its possible function as a neurotransmitter continues to be studied. Sodium oxybate has been approved in different countries for such varied uses as general anaesthesia, the treatment of alcohol withdrawal and addiction, and, most recently, cataplexy associated with narcolepsy. During the 1980s, easy access to GHB-containing products led to various unapproved uses, including weight loss, bodybuilding and the treatment of sleeplessness, sometimes with serious long-term effects. The availability of these unapproved and unregulated forms of the drug led to GHB and its analogues being popularised as substances of abuse and subsequent notoriety as agents used in drug-facilitated sexual assault, or 'date rape', eventually leading to the prohibition of GHB sales in the US. Legal efforts to control the sale and distribution of GHB and its analogues nearly prevented the clinical development of sodium oxybate for narcolepsy in the US. However, following extensive discussions with a variety of interested parties, a satisfactory solution was devised, including legislative action and the development of the Xyrem Risk Management Program. Amendments to the US Controlled Substances Act made GHB a schedule I drug, but also contained provisions that allow US FDA-approved products to be placed under schedule III. This unique, bifurcated schedule for sodium oxybate/GHB allowed the clinical development of sodium oxybate to proceed and, in July 2002, it was approved by the FDA as an orphan drug for the treatment of cataplexy in patients with narcolepsy as Xyrem(sodium oxybate) oral solution. To promote the safe use of sodium oxybate, as well as alleviate

  19. The Xyrem risk management program.

    PubMed

    Fuller, David E; Hornfeldt, Carl S; Kelloway, Judy S; Stahl, Pamela J; Anderson, Todd F

    2004-01-01

    Sodium oxybate, also known as gamma-hydroxybutyric acid (GHB), was discovered in 1960 and has been described both as a therapeutic agent with high medical value and, more recently, a substance of abuse. The naturally occurring form of this drug is found in various body tissues but has been studied most extensively in the CNS where its possible function as a neurotransmitter continues to be studied. Sodium oxybate has been approved in different countries for such varied uses as general anaesthesia, the treatment of alcohol withdrawal and addiction, and, most recently, cataplexy associated with narcolepsy. During the 1980s, easy access to GHB-containing products led to various unapproved uses, including weight loss, bodybuilding and the treatment of sleeplessness, sometimes with serious long-term effects. The availability of these unapproved and unregulated forms of the drug led to GHB and its analogues being popularised as substances of abuse and subsequent notoriety as agents used in drug-facilitated sexual assault, or 'date rape', eventually leading to the prohibition of GHB sales in the US. Legal efforts to control the sale and distribution of GHB and its analogues nearly prevented the clinical development of sodium oxybate for narcolepsy in the US. However, following extensive discussions with a variety of interested parties, a satisfactory solution was devised, including legislative action and the development of the Xyrem Risk Management Program. Amendments to the US Controlled Substances Act made GHB a schedule I drug, but also contained provisions that allow US FDA-approved products to be placed under schedule III. This unique, bifurcated schedule for sodium oxybate/GHB allowed the clinical development of sodium oxybate to proceed and, in July 2002, it was approved by the FDA as an orphan drug for the treatment of cataplexy in patients with narcolepsy as Xyrem(sodium oxybate) oral solution. To promote the safe use of sodium oxybate, as well as alleviate

  20. A Risk-based Model Predictive Control Approach to Adaptive Interventions in Behavioral Health

    PubMed Central

    Zafra-Cabeza, Ascensión; Rivera, Daniel E.; Collins, Linda M.; Ridao, Miguel A.; Camacho, Eduardo F.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines how control engineering and risk management techniques can be applied in the field of behavioral health through their use in the design and implementation of adaptive behavioral interventions. Adaptive interventions are gaining increasing acceptance as a means to improve prevention and treatment of chronic, relapsing disorders, such as abuse of alcohol, tobacco, and other drugs, mental illness, and obesity. A risk-based Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm is developed for a hypothetical intervention inspired by Fast Track, a real-life program whose long-term goal is the prevention of conduct disorders in at-risk children. The MPC-based algorithm decides on the appropriate frequency of counselor home visits, mentoring sessions, and the availability of after-school recreation activities by relying on a model that includes identifiable risks, their costs, and the cost/benefit assessment of mitigating actions. MPC is particularly suited for the problem because of its constraint-handling capabilities, and its ability to scale to interventions involving multiple tailoring variables. By systematically accounting for risks and adapting treatment components over time, an MPC approach as described in this paper can increase intervention effectiveness and adherence while reducing waste, resulting in advantages over conventional fixed treatment. A series of simulations are conducted under varying conditions to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm. PMID:21643450

  1. Risk Management: An International Perspective.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garvey, Daniel

    1998-01-01

    Focuses on risks and challenges of conducting adventure programming in foreign countries. Recommends actions to take before the crisis (involving assumptions, risk evaluation, emergency evacuation plans, awareness of medical-care costs, and foreign communications systems, family procedures plan, briefings); during the crisis (meeting staff and…

  2. Bayesian adaptive survey protocols for resource management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Halstead, Brian J.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2011-01-01

    Transparency in resource management decisions requires a proper accounting of uncertainty at multiple stages of the decision-making process. As information becomes available, periodic review and updating of resource management protocols reduces uncertainty and improves management decisions. One of the most basic steps to mitigating anthropogenic effects on populations is determining if a population of a species occurs in an area that will be affected by human activity. Species are rarely detected with certainty, however, and falsely declaring a species absent can cause improper conservation decisions or even extirpation of populations. We propose a method to design survey protocols for imperfectly detected species that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty in the detection process, is capable of quantitatively incorporating expert opinion into the decision-making process, allows periodic updates to the protocol, and permits resource managers to weigh the severity of consequences if the species is falsely declared absent. We developed our method using the giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas), a threatened species precinctive to the Central Valley of California, as a case study. Survey date was negatively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake, and water temperature was positively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake at a sampled location. Reporting sampling effort, timing and duration of surveys, and water temperatures would allow resource managers to evaluate the probability that the giant gartersnake occurs at sampled sites where it is not detected. This information would also allow periodic updates and quantitative evaluation of changes to the giant gartersnake survey protocol. Because it naturally allows multiple sources of information and is predicated upon the idea of updating information, Bayesian analysis is well-suited to solving the problem of developing efficient sampling protocols for species of

  3. Public Sector Reform and Governance for Adaptation: Implications of New Public Management for Adaptive Capacity in Mexico and Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eakin, Hallie; Eriksen, Siri; Eikeland, Per-Ove; Øyen, Cecilie

    2011-03-01

    Although many governments are assuming the responsibility of initiating adaptation policy in relation to climate change, the compatibility of "governance-for-adaptation" with the current paradigms of public administration has generally been overlooked. Over the last several decades, countries around the globe have embraced variants of the philosophy of administration broadly called "New Public Management" (NPM) in an effort to improve administrative efficiencies and the provision of public services. Using evidence from a case study of reforms in the building sector in Norway, and a case study of water and flood risk management in central Mexico, we analyze the implications of the adoption of the tenets of NPM for adaptive capacity. Our cases illustrate that some of the key attributes associated with governance for adaptation—namely, technical and financial capacities; institutional memory, learning and knowledge; and participation and accountability—have been eroded by NPM reforms. Despite improvements in specific operational tasks of the public sector in each case, we show that the success of NPM reforms presumes the existence of core elements of governance that have often been found lacking, including solid institutional frameworks and accountability. Our analysis illustrates the importance of considering both longer-term adaptive capacities and short-term efficiency goals in public sector administration reform.

  4. 76 FR 57723 - Electricity Sector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process Guideline

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-09-16

    ... Electricity Sector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process Guideline AGENCY: Department of Energy. ACTION... to publish the Electricity Sector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process Guideline. The guideline describes a risk management process that is targeted to the specific needs of electricity...

  5. Driving forces and risk management

    EPA Science Inventory

    From a public health perspective, food safety is the overall goal and there are two distinct areas where interventions to this end can take place – either pre- or post-harvest. In pre-harvest, water quality management is the focus whereas post-harvest quality management depends ...

  6. Bridging the management-science partnership gap: Adaptive grazing management experiment in shortgrass steppe

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Adaptive Grazing Management experiment (2013-2023) in shortgrass steppe of Colorado addresses a critical gap in grazing management: lack of management-science partnerships to more fully understand the effect of management decisions for multiple ecosystem goods and services at ranch-scales. A Sta...

  7. Wildfire Risk Management: Challenges and Opportunities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, M.; Calkin, D. E.; Hand, M. S.; Kreitler, J.

    2014-12-01

    In this presentation we address federal wildfire risk management largely through the lens of economics, targeting questions related to costs, effectiveness, efficiency, and tradeoffs. Beyond risks to resources and assets such as wildlife habitat, watersheds, and homes, wildfires present financial risk and budgetary instability for federal wildfire management agencies due to highly variable annual suppression costs. Despite its variability, the costs of wildfire management have continued to escalate and account for an ever-growing share of overall agency budgets, compromising abilities to attain other objectives related to forest health, recreation, timber management, etc. Trends associated with a changing climate and human expansion into fire-prone areas could lead to additional suppression costs in the future, only further highlighting the need for an ability to evaluate economic tradeoffs in investments across the wildfire management spectrum. Critically, these economic analyses need to accurately capture the complex spatial and stochastic aspects of wildfire, the inherent uncertainty associated with monetizing environmental impacts of wildfire, the costs and effectiveness of alternative management policies, and linkages between pre-fire investments and active incident management. Investing in hazardous fuels reduction and forest restoration in particular is a major policy lever for pre-fire risk mitigation, and will be a primary focus of our presentation. Evaluating alternative fuel management and suppression policies could provide opportunities for significant efficiency improvements in the development of risk-informed management fire management strategies. Better understanding tradeoffs of fire impacts and costs can help inform policy questions such as how much of the landscape to treat and how to balance investments in treating new areas versus maintaining previous investments. We will summarize current data needs, knowledge gaps, and other factors

  8. The NASA Continuous Risk Management Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pokorny, Frank M.

    2004-01-01

    As an intern this summer in the GRC Risk Management Office, I have become familiar with the NASA Continuous Risk Management Process. In this process, risk is considered in terms of the probability that an undesired event will occur and the impact of the event, should it occur (ref., NASA-NPG: 7120.5). Risk management belongs in every part of every project and should be ongoing from start to finish. Another key point is that a risk is not a problem until it has happened. With that in mind, there is a six step cycle for continuous risk management that prevents risks from becoming problems. The steps are: identify, analyze, plan, track, control, and communicate & document. Incorporated in the first step are several methods to identify risks such as brainstorming and using lessons learned. Once a risk is identified, a risk statement is made on a risk information sheet consisting of a single condition and one or more consequences. There can also be a context section where the risk is explained in more detail. Additionally there are three main goals of analyzing a risk, which are evaluate, classify, and prioritize. Here is where a value is given to the attributes of a risk &e., probability, impact, and timeframe) based on a multi-level classification system (e.g., low, medium, high). It is important to keep in mind that the definitions of these levels are probably different for each project. Furthermore the risks can be combined into groups. Then, the risks are prioritized to see what risk is necessary to mitigate first. After the risks are analyzed, a plan is made to mitigate as many risks as feasible. Each risk should be assigned to someone in the project with knowledge in the area of the risk. Then the possible approaches to choose from are: research, accept, watch, or mitigate. Next, all risks, mitigated or not, are tracked either individually or in groups. As the plan is executed, risks are re-evaluated, and the attribute values are adjusted as necessary. Metrics

  9. Management of drought risk under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Qiang; Han, Lanying; Jia, Jianying; Song, Lingling; Wang, Jinsong

    2016-07-01

    Drought is a serious ecological problem around the world, and its impact on crops and water availability for humans can jeopardize human life. Although drought has always been common, the drought risk has become increasingly prominent because of the climatic warming that has occurred during the past century. However, it still does not comprehensively understand the mechanisms that determine the occurrence of the drought risk it poses to humans, particularly in the context of global climate change. In this paper, we summarize the progress of research on drought and the associated risk, introduce the principle of a drought "transition" from one stage to another, synthesize the characteristics of key factors and their interactions, discuss the potential effect of climatic warming on drought risk, and use this discussion to define the basic requirements for a drought risk management system. We also discuss the main measures that can be used to prevent or mitigate droughts in the context of a risk management strategy.

  10. Lessons Learned in Risk Management on NCSX

    SciTech Connect

    G.H. Neilson, C.O. Gruber, J.H. Harris, D.J. Rej, R.T. Simmons, and R.L. Strykowsky

    2009-02-11

    The National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) was designed to test physics principles of an innovative stellarator design developed by the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Construction of some of the major components and sub-assemblies was completed, but the estimated cost and schedule for completing the project grew as the technical requirements and risks became better understood, leading to its cancellation in 2008. The project's risks stemmed from its technical challenges, primarily the complex component geometries and tight tolerances that were required. The initial baseline, established in 2004, was supported by a risk management plan and risk-based contingencies, both of which proved to be inadequate. Technical successes were achieved in the construction of challenging components and subassemblies, but cost and schedule growth was experienced. As part of an effort to improve project performance, a new risk management program was devised and implemented in 2007-08. It led to a better understanding of project risks, a sounder basis for contingency estimates, and improved management tools. Although the risks ultimately were unacceptable to the sponsor, valuable lessons in risk management were learned through the experiences with the NCSX project.

  11. Lessons Learned in Risk Management on NCSX

    SciTech Connect

    Neilson, G. H.; Gruber, C. O.; Harris, J. H.; Rej, D. J.; Simmons, R. T.; Strykowsky, R. L.

    2009-07-21

    The National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) was designed to test physics principles of an innovative stellarator design developed by the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Construction of some of the major components and sub-assemblies was completed, but the estimated cost and schedule for completing the project grew as the technical requirements and risks became better understood, leading to its cancellation in 2008. The project's risks stemmed from its technical challenges, primarily the complex component geometries and tight tolerances that were required. The initial baseline, established in 2004, was supported by a risk management plan and risk-based contingencies, both of which proved to be inadequate. Technical successes were achieved in the construction of challenging components and subassemblies, but cost and schedule growth was experienced. As part of an effort to improve project performance, a new risk management program was devised and implemented in 2007-08. It led to a better understanding of project risks, a sounder basis for contingency estimates, and improved management tools. Although the risks ultimately were unacceptable to the sponsor, valuable lessons in risk management were learned through the experiences with the NCSX project.

  12. A Humanistic Approach to Emotional Risk Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rubendall, Robert L.

    Adventure programs attempt to control or limit injuries in high-risk programming. This risk management has concentrated on the physical safety of participants at the expense of emotional and developmental security. In the zeal for accident-free statistics, a highly controlled, directive approach is created that treats individuals according to a…

  13. Risk management, derivatives and shariah compliance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath

    2013-04-01

    Despite the impressive growth of Islamic Banking and Finance (IBF), a number of weaknesses remain. The most important of this is perhaps the lack of shariah compliant risk management tools. While the risk sharing philosophy of Islamic Finance requires the acceptance of risk to justify returns, the shariah also requires adherents to avoid unnecessary risk-maysir. The requirement to avoid maysir is in essence a call for the prudent management of risk. Contemporary risk management revolves around financial engineering, the building blocks of which are financial derivatives. Despite the proven efficacy of derivatives in the management of risk in the conventional space, shariah scholars appear to be suspicious and uneasy with their use in IBF. Some have imposed outright prohibition of their use. This paper re-examines the issue of contemporary derivative instruments and shariah compliance. The shariah compatibility of derivatives is shown in a number of ways. First, by way of qualitative evaluation of whether derivatives can be made to comply with the key prohibitions of the sharia. Second, by way of comparing the payoff profiles of derivatives with risk sharing finance and Bai Salam contracts. Finally, the equivalence between shariah compliant derivatives like the IPRS and Islamic FX Currency Forwards with conventional ones is presented.

  14. Cost effective management of space venture risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Giuntini, Ronald E.; Storm, Richard E.

    1986-01-01

    The development of a model for the cost-effective management of space venture risks is discussed. The risk assessment and control program of insurance companies is examined. A simplified system development cycle which consists of a conceptual design phase, a preliminary design phase, a final design phase, a construction phase, and a system operations and maintenance phase is described. The model incorporates insurance safety risk methods and reliability engineering, and testing practices used in the development of large aerospace and defense systems.

  15. Information needs for risk management/communication

    SciTech Connect

    Bennett, D.A.

    1990-12-31

    The hazardous waste cleanup program under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (Superfund) is delegated to the ten Regions of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and has, to date, identified more than 33,000 sites for consideration. The size and complexity of the program places great demands on those who would provide information to achieve national consistency in application of risk assessment while meeting site-specific needs for risk management and risk communication.

  16. Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning.

    PubMed

    Lawler, Joshua J

    2009-04-01

    Recent rapid changes in the Earth's climate have altered ecological systems around the globe. Global warming has been linked to changes in physiology, phenology, species distributions, interspecific interactions, and disturbance regimes. Projected future climate change will undoubtedly result in even more dramatic shifts in the states of many ecosystems. These shifts will provide one of the largest challenges to natural resource managers and conservation planners. Managing natural resources and ecosystems in the face of uncertain climate requires new approaches. Here, the many adaptation strategies that have been proposed for managing natural systems in a changing climate are reviewed. Most of the recommended approaches are general principles and many are tools that managers are already using. What is new is a turning toward a more agile management perspective. To address climate change, managers will need to act over different spatial and temporal scales. The focus of restoration will need to shift from historic species assemblages to potential future ecosystem services. Active adaptive management based on potential future climate impact scenarios will need to be a part of everyday operations. And triage will likely become a critical option. Although many concepts and tools for addressing climate change have been proposed, key pieces of information are still missing. To successfully manage for climate change, a better understanding will be needed of which species and systems will likely be most affected by climate change, how to preserve and enhance the evolutionary capacity of species, how to implement effective adaptive management in new systems, and perhaps most importantly, in which situations and systems will the general adaptation strategies that have been proposed work and how can they be effectively applied.

  17. Adaptive management: from more talk to real action.

    PubMed

    Williams, Byron K; Brown, Eleanor D

    2014-02-01

    The challenges currently facing resource managers are large-scale and complex, and demand new approaches to balance development and conservation goals. One approach that shows considerable promise for addressing these challenges is adaptive management, which by now is broadly seen as a natural, intuitive, and potentially effective way to address decision-making in the face of uncertainties. Yet the concept of adaptive management continues to evolve, and its record of success remains limited. In this article, we present an operational framework for adaptive decision-making, and describe the challenges and opportunities in applying it to real-world problems. We discuss the key elements required for adaptive decision-making, and their integration into an iterative process that highlights and distinguishes technical and social learning. We illustrate the elements and processes of the framework with some successful on-the-ground examples of natural resource management. Finally, we address some of the difficulties in applying learning-based management, and finish with a discussion of future directions and strategic challenges. PMID:24271618

  18. Flash Flood Risk Perception in an Italian Alpine Region. From Research into Adaptive Strategies.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scolobig, A.; de Marchi, B.; Borga, M.

    2009-04-01

    Flash floods are characterised by short lead times and high levels of uncertainty. Adaptive strategies to face them need to take into account not only the physical characteristics of the hydro-geological phenomena, but also peoples' risk perceptions, attitudes and behaviours in case of an emergency. It is quite obvious that a precondition for an effective adaptation, e.g. in the case of a warning, is the awareness of being endangered. At the same time the perceptions of those at risk and their likely actions inform hazard warning strategies and recovery programmes following such events. Usually low risk awareness or "wrong perceptions" of the residents are considered among the causes of an inadequate preparedness or response to flash floods as well as a symptom of a scarce self-protection culture. In this paper we will focus on flood risk perception and on how research on this topic may contribute to design adaptive strategies and give inputs to flood policy decisions. We will report on a flood risk perception study of the population residing in four villages in an Italian Alpine Region (Trentino Alto-Adige), carried out between October 2005 and January 2006. A total of 400 standardised questionnaires were submitted to local residents by face to face interviews. The surveys were preceded by focus groups with officers from agencies in charge of flood risk management and semi-structured and in-depth interviews with policy, scientific and technical experts. Survey results indicated that people are not so worried about hydro-geological phenomena, and think that their community is more endangered than themselves. The knowledge of the territory and danger sources, the unpredictability of flash floods and the feeling of safety induced by structural devices are the main elements which make the difference in shaping residents' perceptions. The study also demonstrated a widespread lack of adoption of preparatory measures among residents, together with a general low

  19. Socio-hydrological modelling of floods: investigating community resilience, adaptation capacity and risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciullo, Alessio; Viglione, Alberto; Castellarin, Attilio

    2016-04-01

    Changes in flood risk occur because of changes in climate and hydrology, and in societal exposure and vulnerability. Research on change in flood risk has demonstrated that the mutual interactions and continuous feedbacks between floods and societies has to be taken into account in flood risk management. The present work builds on an existing conceptual model of an hypothetical city located in the proximity of a river, along whose floodplains the community evolves over time. The model reproduces the dynamic co-evolution of four variables: flooding, population density of the flooplain, amount of structural protection measures and memory of floods. These variables are then combined in a way to mimic the temporal change of community resilience, defined as the (inverse of the) amount of time for the community to recover from a shock, and adaptation capacity, defined as ratio between damages due to subsequent events. Also, temporal changing exposure, vulnerability and probability of flooding are also modelled, which results in a dynamically varying flood-risk. Examples are provided that show how factors such as collective memory and risk taking attitude influence the dynamics of community resilience, adaptation capacity and risk.

  20. Managing Risk on the Final Frontier

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lengyel, David M.; Newman, J. S.

    2009-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) has combined the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) discipline with innovative knowledge management (KM) practices to more effectively enable the accomplishment of work. CRM enables proactive problem identification and problem solving in the complex world of rocket science. while KM is used to improve this process.

  1. Full-Time Risk, Part-Time Job--Effective Part-time Risk Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bieber, Robert M.

    1995-01-01

    Many school districts lack the resources to hire a full-time risk manager and often assign risk-management duties to a manager with other responsibilities. Offers steps that can help with risk-management procedures. Cooperation, communication, and, most important, the support of top management are critical for risk-management effectiveness. (MLF)

  2. Adapters, strugglers, and case managers: a typology of spouse caregivers.

    PubMed

    Davis, Linda Lindsey; Chestnutt, Deborah; Molloy, Margory; Deshefy-Longhi, Tess; Shim, Bomin; Gilliss, Catherine L

    2014-11-01

    Although family home care problems are frequently described in the health care literature, the ways in which families and other informal caregivers manage those problems are not often addressed. We conducted a descriptive analysis of interviews in which spouses caring for a partner with Alzheimer's or Parkinson's disease were asked to describe difficult home care problems and how they managed those problems. Analysis of these interviews indicated three recurring management styles. Adapters told stories about applying pre-existing skills to manage home care problems. Strugglers told stories of reoccurring home care problems for which they had few or no management strategies. Case managers' interview stories focused on the challenges of finding and coordinating home care services. These findings suggest that caregiving burden might be influenced more by the caregiver's management style than the demands of the care situation. Suggestions for tailoring support programs for the three types of caregivers are proposed.

  3. Risk Management in environmental geotechnical modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tammemäe, Olavi; Torn, Hardi

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this article is to provide an overview of the basis of risk analysis, assessment and management, accompanying problems and principles of risk management when drafting an environmental geotechnical model, enabling the analysis of an entire territory or developed region as a whole. The environmental impact will remain within the limits of the criteria specified with the standards and will be acceptable for human health and environment. An essential part of the solution of the problem is the engineering-geological model based on risk analysis and the assessment and forecast of mutual effects of the processes.

  4. Managing Liability. Employment Discrimination: A Risk Management Strategy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McMullan, Sandra H.

    This booklet discusses the risks that educational institutions face in regard to employment discrimination litigation and outlines a program to effectively manage such risks. Institutions need to address three main types of employment discrimination issues: sexual harassment, disability-based discrimination, and age discrimination. To deal with…

  5. Managing the Library Fire Risk.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morris, John

    A discussion of fire risks, causes, prevention, and salvage in libraries is presented in text and photographs. A description of some historic library fires demonstrates the value of adequate protection and preparedness programs to minimize loss and damage. The need for fire retardant construction and protection from valdalism and arson are…

  6. Flood risk and adaptation strategies in Indonesia: a probabilistic analysis using globally available data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muis, Sanne; Güneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Philip

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, global flood losses are increasing due to socio-economic development and climate change, with the largest risk increases in developing countries such as Indonesia. For countries to undertake effective risk-management, an accurate understanding of both current and future risk is required. However, detailed information is rarely available, particularly for developing countries. We present a first of its kind country-scale analysis of flood risk using globally available data that combines a global inundation model with a land use change model and more local data on flood damages. To assess the contribution and uncertainty of different drivers of future risk, we integrate thousands of socio-economic and climate projections in a probabilistic way and include multiple adaptation strategies. Indonesia is used as a case-study as it a country that already faces high flood risk, and is undergoing rapid urbanization. We developed probabilistic and spatially-explicit urban expansion projections from 2000 to 2030 that show that the increase in urban extent ranges from 215% to 357% (5th and 95th percentile). We project rapidly rising flood risk, both for coastal and river floods. This increase is largely driven by economic growth and urban expansion (i.e. increasing exposure). Whilst sea level rise will amply this trend, the response of river floods to climate change is uncertain with the impact of the mean ensemble of 20 climate projections (5 GCMs and 4 RCPs) being close to zero. However, as urban expansion is the main driving force of future risk, we argue that the implementation of adaptation measures is increasingly pressing, regardless of the wide uncertainty in climate projections. Hence, we evaluated the effectiveness of two adaptation measures: spatial planning in flood prone areas and enhanced flood protection. Both strategies have a large potential to effectively offset the increasing risk trend. The risk reduction is in the range of 22-85% and 53

  7. Lessons Learned from the First Decade of Adaptive Management in Comprehensive Everglades Restoration

    EPA Science Inventory

    Although few successful examples of large-scale adaptive management applications are available to ecosystem restoration scientists and managers, examining where and how the components of an adaptive management program have been successfully implemented yields insight into what ...

  8. Multi-hazard risk analysis for management strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kappes, M.; Keiler, M.; Bell, R.; Glade, T.

    2009-04-01

    Risk management is very often operating in a reactive way, responding to an event, instead of proactive starting with risk analysis and building up the whole process of risk evaluation, prevention, event management and regeneration. Since damage and losses from natural hazards raise continuously more and more studies, concepts (e.g. Switzerland or South Tyrol-Bolozano) and software packages (e.g. ARMAGEDOM, HAZUS or RiskScape) are developed to guide, standardize and facilitate the risk analysis. But these approaches focus on different aspects and are mostly closely adapted to the situation (legislation, organization of the administration, specific processes etc.) of the specific country or region. We propose in this study the development of a flexible methodology for multi-hazard risk analysis, identifying the stakeholders and their needs, processes and their characteristics, modeling approaches as well as incoherencies occurring by combining all these different aspects. Based on this concept a flexible software package will be established consisting of ArcGIS as central base and being complemented by various modules for hazard modeling, vulnerability assessment and risk calculation. Not all modules will be developed newly but taken from the current state-of-the-art and connected or integrated into ArcGIS. For this purpose two study sites, Valtellina in Italy and Bacelonnette in France, were chosen and the hazards types debris flows, rockfalls, landslides, avalanches and floods are planned to be included in the tool for a regional multi-hazard risk analysis. Since the central idea of this tool is its flexibility this will only be a first step, in the future further processes and scales can be included and the instrument thus adapted to any study site.

  9. Learning and adaptation in the management of waterfowl harvests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Fred A.

    2011-01-01

    A formal framework for the adaptive management of waterfowl harvests was adopted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in 1995. The process admits competing models of waterfowl population dynamics and harvest impacts, and relies on model averaging to compute optimal strategies for regulating harvest. Model weights, reflecting the relative ability of the alternative models to predict changes in population size, are used in the model averaging and are updated each year based on a comparison of model predictions and observations of population size. Since its inception the adaptive harvest program has focused principally on mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), which constitute a large portion of the U.S. waterfowl harvest. Four competing models, derived from a combination of two survival and two reproductive hypotheses, were originally assigned equal weights. In the last year of available information (2007), model weights favored the weakly density-dependent reproductive hypothesis over the strongly density-dependent one, and the additive mortality hypothesis over the compensatory one. The change in model weights led to a more conservative harvesting policy than what was in effect in the early years of the program. Adaptive harvest management has been successful in many ways, but nonetheless has exposed the difficulties in defining management objectives, in predicting and regulating harvests, and in coping with the tradeoffs inherent in managing multiple waterfowl stocks exposed to a common harvest. The key challenge now facing managers is whether adaptive harvest management as an institution can be sufficiently adaptive, and whether the knowledge and experience gained from the process can be reflected in higher-level policy decisions.

  10. Learning about colonization when managing metapopulations under an adaptive management framework.

    PubMed

    Southwell, Darren M; Hauser, Cindy E; McCarthy, Michael A

    2016-01-01

    Adaptive management is a framework for resolving key uncertainties while managing complex ecological systems. Its use has been prominent in fisheries research and wildlife harvesting; however, its application to other areas of environmental management remains somewhat limited. Indeed, adaptive management has not been used to guide and inform metapopulation restoration, despite considerable uncertainty surrounding such actions. In this study, we determined how best to learn about the colonization rate when managing metapopulations under an adaptive management framework. We developed a mainland-island metapopulation model based on the threatened bay checkerspot butterfly (Euphydryas editha bayensis) and assessed three management approaches: adding new patches, adding area to existing patches, and doing nothing. Using stochastic dynamic programming, we found the optimal passive and active adaptive management strategies by monitoring colonization of vacant patches. Under a passive adaptive strategy, increasing patch area was best when the expected colonization rate was below a threshold; otherwise, adding new patches was optimal. Under an active adaptive strategy, it was best to add patches only when we were reasonably confident that the colonization rate was high. This research provides a framework for managing mainland-island metapopulations in the face of uncertainty while learning about the dynamics of these complex systems. PMID:27039525

  11. Judging adaptive management practices of U.S. agencies.

    PubMed

    Fischman, Robert L; Ruhl, J B

    2016-04-01

    All U.S. federal agencies administering environmental laws purport to practice adaptive management (AM), but little is known about how they actually implement this conservation tool. A gap between the theory and practice of AM is revealed in judicial decisions reviewing agency adaptive management plans. We analyzed all U.S. federal court opinions published through 1 January 2015 to identify the agency AM practices courts found most deficient. The shortcomings included lack of clear objectives and processes, monitoring thresholds, and defined actions triggered by thresholds. This trio of agency shortcuts around critical, iterative steps characterizes what we call AM-lite. Passive AM differs from active AM in its relative lack of management interventions through experimental strategies. In contrast, AM-lite is a distinctive form of passive AM that fails to provide for the iterative steps necessary to learn from management. Courts have developed a sophisticated understanding of AM and often offer instructive rather than merely critical opinions. The role of the judiciary is limited by agency discretion under U.S. administrative law. But courts have overturned some agency AM-lite practices and insisted on more rigorous analyses to ensure that the promised benefits of structured learning and fine-tuned management have a reasonable likelihood of occurring. Nonetheless, there remains a mismatch in U.S. administrative law between the flexibility demanded by adaptive management and the legal objectives of transparency, public participation, and finality.

  12. Adaptive resource management and the value of information

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, Byron K.; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Breininger, David R.

    2011-01-01

    The value of information is a general and broadly applicable concept that has been used for several decades to aid in making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Yet there are relatively few examples of its use in ecology and natural resources management, and almost none that are framed in terms of the future impacts of management decisions. In this paper we discuss the value of information in a context of adaptive management, in which actions are taken sequentially over a timeframe and both future resource conditions and residual uncertainties about resource responses are taken into account. Our objective is to derive the value of reducing or eliminating uncertainty in adaptive decision making. We describe several measures of the value of information, with each based on management objectives that are appropriate for adaptive management. We highlight some mathematical properties of these measures, discuss their geometries, and illustrate them with an example in natural resources management. Accounting for the value of information can help to inform decisions about whether and how much to monitor resource conditions through time.

  13. Adaptive resource management and the value of information

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, B.K.; Eaton, M.J.; Breininger, D.R.

    2011-01-01

    The value of information is a general and broadly applicable concept that has been used for several decades to aid in making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Yet there are relatively few examples of its use in ecology and natural resources management, and almost none that are framed in terms of the future impacts of management decisions. In this paper we discuss the value of information in a context of adaptive management, in which actions are taken sequentially over a timeframe and both future resource conditions and residual uncertainties about resource responses are taken into account. Our objective is to derive the value of reducing or eliminating uncertainty in adaptive decision making. We describe several measures of the value of information, with each based on management objectives that are appropriate for adaptive management. We highlight some mathematical properties of these measures, discuss their geometries, and illustrate them with an example in natural resources management. Accounting for the value of information can help to inform decisions about whether and how much to monitor resource conditions through time. ?? 2011.

  14. Judging adaptive management practices of U.S. agencies.

    PubMed

    Fischman, Robert L; Ruhl, J B

    2016-04-01

    All U.S. federal agencies administering environmental laws purport to practice adaptive management (AM), but little is known about how they actually implement this conservation tool. A gap between the theory and practice of AM is revealed in judicial decisions reviewing agency adaptive management plans. We analyzed all U.S. federal court opinions published through 1 January 2015 to identify the agency AM practices courts found most deficient. The shortcomings included lack of clear objectives and processes, monitoring thresholds, and defined actions triggered by thresholds. This trio of agency shortcuts around critical, iterative steps characterizes what we call AM-lite. Passive AM differs from active AM in its relative lack of management interventions through experimental strategies. In contrast, AM-lite is a distinctive form of passive AM that fails to provide for the iterative steps necessary to learn from management. Courts have developed a sophisticated understanding of AM and often offer instructive rather than merely critical opinions. The role of the judiciary is limited by agency discretion under U.S. administrative law. But courts have overturned some agency AM-lite practices and insisted on more rigorous analyses to ensure that the promised benefits of structured learning and fine-tuned management have a reasonable likelihood of occurring. Nonetheless, there remains a mismatch in U.S. administrative law between the flexibility demanded by adaptive management and the legal objectives of transparency, public participation, and finality. PMID:26306648

  15. 77 FR 30314 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-22

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service... Course Road, Weaverville, CA 96093. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Meeting Information: Nancy J....

  16. Adaptive Knowledge Management of Project-Based Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tilchin, Oleg; Kittany, Mohamed

    2016-01-01

    The goal of an approach to Adaptive Knowledge Management (AKM) of project-based learning (PBL) is to intensify subject study through guiding, inducing, and facilitating development knowledge, accountability skills, and collaborative skills of students. Knowledge development is attained by knowledge acquisition, knowledge sharing, and knowledge…

  17. Adapters, Strugglers, and Case Managers: A Typology of Spouse Caregivers

    PubMed Central

    Davis, Linda Lindsey; Chestnutt, Deborah; Molloy, Margory; Deshefy-Longhi, Tess; Shim, Bomin; Gilliss, Catherine L.

    2015-01-01

    Although family home care problems are frequently described in the health care literature, the ways in which families and other informal caregivers manage those problems are not often addressed. We conducted a descriptive analysis of interviews in which spouses caring for a partner with Alzheimer’s or Parkinson’s disease were asked to describe difficult home care problems and how they managed those problems. Analysis of these interviews indicated three recurring management styles. Adapters told stories about applying pre-existing skills to manage home care problems. Strugglers told stories of reoccurring home care problems for which they had few or no management strategies. Case Managers’ interview stories focused on the challenges of finding and coordinating home care services. These findings suggest that caregiving burden might be influenced more by the caregiver’s management style than the demands of the care situation. Suggestions for tailoring support programs for the three types of caregivers are proposed. PMID:25189535

  18. Watershed Conservation, Groundwater Management, and Adaptation to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roumasset, J.; Burnett, K.; Wada, C.

    2009-12-01

    Sustainability science is transdisciplinary, organizing research to deliver meaningful and practical contributions to critical issues of resource management. As yet, however, sustainability science has not been integrated with the policy sciences. We provide a step towards integration by providing an integrated model of optimal groundwater management and investment in watershed conservation. The joint optimization problem is solved under alternative forecasts of the changing rainfall distribution for the Koolau Watershed in Oahu, Hawaii. Optimal groundwater management is solved using a simplified one-dimensional model of the groundwater aquifer for analytical tractability. For a constant aquifer recharge, the model solves for the optimal trajectories of water extraction up to the desalination steady state and an incentive compatible pricing scheme. The Koolau Watershed is currently being degraded, however, by invasive plants such as Miconia calvescens and feral animals, especially wild pigs. Runoff and erosion have increased and groundwater recharge is at risk. The Koolau Partnership, a coalition of private owners, the State Department of Land and Natural Resources have proposed a $5 million (present value) conservation plan that promises to halt further losses of recharge. We compare this to the enhanced present value of the aquifer, showing the benefits are an order of magnitude greater than the costs. If conservation is done in the absence of efficient groundwater management, however, more than 40% of the potential benefits would be wasted by under-pricing and overconsumption. We require an estimate of the rainfall-generating distribution and how that distribution is changing over time. We obtain these from statistical downsizing of IPCC climate models. Despite the finding that global warming will increase precipitation for most of the world, the opposite is forecast for Hawaii. A University of Hawaii study finds that the most likely precipitation scenario is a

  19. Understanding barriers to implementation of an adaptive land management program.

    PubMed

    Jacobson, Susan K; Morris, Julie K; Sanders, J Scott; Wiley, Eugene N; Brooks, Michael; Bennetts, Robert E; Percival, H Franklin; Marynowski, Susan

    2006-10-01

    The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission manages over 650,000 ha, including 26 wildlife management and environmental areas. To improve management, they developed an objective-based vegetation management (OBVM) process that focuses on desired conditions of plant communities through an adaptive management framework. Our goals were to understand potential barriers to implementing OBVM and to recommend strategies to overcome barriers. A literature review identified 47 potential barriers in six categories to implementation of adaptive and ecosystem management: logistical, communication, attitudinal, institutional, conceptual, and educational. We explored these barriers through a bureau-wide survey of 90 staff involved in OBVM and personal interviews with area managers, scientists, and administrators. The survey incorporated an organizational culture assessment instrument to gauge how institutional factors might influence OBVM implementation. The survey response rate was 69%. Logistics and communications were the greatest barriers to implementing OBVM. Respondents perceived that the agency had inadequate resources for implementing OBVM and provided inadequate information. About one-third of the respondents believed OBVM would decrease their job flexibility and perceived greater institutional barriers to the approach. The 43% of respondents who believed they would have more responsibility under OBVM also had greater attitudinal barriers. A similar percentage of respondents reported OBVM would not give enough priority to wildlife. Staff believed that current agency culture was hierarchical but preferred a culture that would provide more flexibility for adaptive management and would foster learning from land management activities. In light of the barriers to OBVM, we recommend the following: (1) mitigation of logistical barriers by addressing real and perceived constraints of staff, funds, and other resources in a participatory manner; (2) mitigation of

  20. Understanding barriers to implementation of an adaptive land management program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jacobson, S.K.; Morris, J.K.; Sanders, J.S.; Wiley, E.N.; Brooks, M.; Bennetts, R.E.; Percival, H.F.; Marynowski, S.

    2006-01-01

    The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission manages over 650,000 ha, including 26 wildlife management and environmental areas. To improve management, they developed an objective-based vegetation management (OBVM) process that focuses on desired conditions of plant communities through an adaptive management framework. Our goals were to understand potential barriers to implementing OBVM and to recommend strategies to overcome barriers. A literature review identified 47 potential barriers in six categories to implementation of adaptive and ecosystem management: logistical, communication, attitudinal, institutional, conceptual, and educational. We explored these barriers through a bureau-wide survey of 90 staff involved in OBVM and personal interviews with area managers, scientists, and administrators. The survey incorporated an organizational culture assessment instrument to gauge how institutional factors might influence OBVM implementation. The survey response rate was 69%. Logistics and communications were the greatest barriers to implementing OBVM. Respondents perceived that the agency had inadequate resources for implementing OBVM and provided inadequate information. About one-third of the respondents believed OBVM would decrease their job flexibility and perceived greater institutional barriers to the approach. The 43% of respondents who believed they would have more responsibility under OBVM also had greater attitudinal barriers. A similar percentage of respondents reported OBVM would not give enough priority to wildlife. Staff believed that current agency culture was hierarchical but preferred a culture that would provide more flexibility for adaptive management and would foster learning from land management activities. In light of the barriers to OBVM, we recommend the following: (1) mitigation of logistical barriers by addressing real and perceived constraints of staff, funds, and other resources in a participatory manner; (2) mitigation of

  1. Risk management in pregnancy termination.

    PubMed

    Burnhill, M S

    1986-03-01

    This chapter reminds those who provide abortion services that crises are inevitable in the medical, counselling and administrative areas of the facility. After more than 10 years of providing safe, legal abortions, the author notes that the different types of crises that occur are already known and that it is possible to prepare for them. Indeed, it is necessary to prepare for a crisis before it occurs. The essence of crisis management is to: (a) identify each possible crisis and prepare a plan to cope with it, (b) train personnel to avert and/or manage a crisis, and to be sure that this training is carried out at appropriate intervals to provide sufficient trained staff at all times and (c) have on hand an up-to-date, adequate stock of the appropriate supplies and equipment to deal with medical and other emergencies. Four crisis management 'dicta' are given: Prepare yourself, your personnel, and your facility to be able to handle crisis. When a medical crisis, as listed, has occurred, the patient should be rapidly transported to the hospital and observed there for a suitable period of time. A medical crisis must be treated as the life-threatening event that it is, regardless of personal ego damage, social disruptions and/or financial considerations. The more personnel trained in cardiopulmonary resuscitation, the better. PMID:3709010

  2. Risk management in pregnancy termination.

    PubMed

    Burnhill, M S

    1986-03-01

    This chapter reminds those who provide abortion services that crises are inevitable in the medical, counselling and administrative areas of the facility. After more than 10 years of providing safe, legal abortions, the author notes that the different types of crises that occur are already known and that it is possible to prepare for them. Indeed, it is necessary to prepare for a crisis before it occurs. The essence of crisis management is to: (a) identify each possible crisis and prepare a plan to cope with it, (b) train personnel to avert and/or manage a crisis, and to be sure that this training is carried out at appropriate intervals to provide sufficient trained staff at all times and (c) have on hand an up-to-date, adequate stock of the appropriate supplies and equipment to deal with medical and other emergencies. Four crisis management 'dicta' are given: Prepare yourself, your personnel, and your facility to be able to handle crisis. When a medical crisis, as listed, has occurred, the patient should be rapidly transported to the hospital and observed there for a suitable period of time. A medical crisis must be treated as the life-threatening event that it is, regardless of personal ego damage, social disruptions and/or financial considerations. The more personnel trained in cardiopulmonary resuscitation, the better.

  3. Adaptive management in EBIPM: A key to success in invasive plant management

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    EBIPM is an important advancement in management of invasive plants. EBIPM puts land management decisions on a sound-footing based on ecological principles that cause plant community change. These principles, however, must be incorporated into the adaptive management cycle to truly make a change in h...

  4. Dynamic and adaptive data-management in ATLAS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lassnig, Mario; Garonne, Vincent; Branco, Miguel; Molfetas, Angelos

    2010-04-01

    Distributed data-management on the grid is subject to huge uncertainties yet static policies govern its usage. Due to the unpredictability of user behaviour, the high-latency and the heterogeneous nature of the environment, distributed data-management on the grid is challenging. In this paper we present the first steps towards a future dynamic data-management system that adapts to the changing conditions and environment. Such a system would eliminate the number of manual interventions and remove unnecessary software layers, thereby providing a higher quality of service to the collaboration.

  5. Using community archetypes to better understand differential community adaptation to wildfire risk.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Matthew; Paveglio, Travis

    2016-06-01

    One of the immediate challenges of wildfire management concerns threats to human safety and property in residential areas adjacent to non-cultivated vegetation. One approach for relieving this problem is to increase human community 'adaptiveness' to deal with the risk and reality of fire in a variety of landscapes. The challenge in creating 'fire-adapted communities' (FACs) is the great diversity in character and make-up of populations at risk from wildfire. This paper outlines a recently developed categorization scheme for Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) communities based on a larger conceptual approach for understanding how social diversity is likely to influence the creation of FACs. The WUI categorization scheme situates four community archetypes on a continuum that recognizes dynamic change in human community functioning. We use results from the WUI classification scheme to outline key characteristics associated with each archetype and results from recent case studies to demonstrate the diversity across WUI communities. Differences among key characteristics of local social context will likely result in the need for different adaptation strategies to wildfire. While the WUI archetypes described here may not be broadly applicable to other parts of the world, we argue that the conceptual approach and strategies for systematically documenting local influences on wildfire adaptation have potential for broad application.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'.

  6. Using community archetypes to better understand differential community adaptation to wildfire risk.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Matthew; Paveglio, Travis

    2016-06-01

    One of the immediate challenges of wildfire management concerns threats to human safety and property in residential areas adjacent to non-cultivated vegetation. One approach for relieving this problem is to increase human community 'adaptiveness' to deal with the risk and reality of fire in a variety of landscapes. The challenge in creating 'fire-adapted communities' (FACs) is the great diversity in character and make-up of populations at risk from wildfire. This paper outlines a recently developed categorization scheme for Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) communities based on a larger conceptual approach for understanding how social diversity is likely to influence the creation of FACs. The WUI categorization scheme situates four community archetypes on a continuum that recognizes dynamic change in human community functioning. We use results from the WUI classification scheme to outline key characteristics associated with each archetype and results from recent case studies to demonstrate the diversity across WUI communities. Differences among key characteristics of local social context will likely result in the need for different adaptation strategies to wildfire. While the WUI archetypes described here may not be broadly applicable to other parts of the world, we argue that the conceptual approach and strategies for systematically documenting local influences on wildfire adaptation have potential for broad application.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. PMID:27216514

  7. The Dynamics of Vulnerability and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Urban Water Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dilling, L.; Daly, M.; Travis, W.; Wilhelmi, O.; Klein, R.; Kenney, D.; Ray, A. J.; Miller, K.

    2013-12-01

    Recent reports and scholarship have suggested that adapting to current climate variability may represent a "no regrets" strategy for adapting to climate change. Filling "adaptation deficits" and other approaches that rely on addressing current vulnerabilities are of course helpful for responding to current climate variability, but we find here that they are not sufficient for adapting to climate change. First, following a comprehensive review and unique synthesis of the natural hazards and climate adaptation literatures, we advance six reasons why adapting to climate variability is not sufficient for adapting to climate change: 1) Vulnerability is different at different levels of exposure; 2) Coping with climate variability is not equivalent to adaptation to longer term change; 3) The socioeconomic context for vulnerability is constantly changing; 4) The perception of risk associated with climate variability does not necessarily promote adaptive behavior in the face of climate change; 5) Adaptations made to short term climate variability may reduce the flexibility of the system in the long term; and 6) Adaptive actions may shift vulnerabilities to other parts of the system or to other people. Instead we suggest that decision makers faced with choices to adapt to climate change must consider the dynamics of vulnerability in a connected system-- how choices made in one part of the system might impact other valued outcomes or even create new vulnerabilities. Furthermore we suggest that rather than expressing climate change adaptation as an extension of adaptation to climate variability, the research and practice communities would do well to articulate adaptation as an imperfect policy, with tradeoffs and consequences and that decisions be prioritized to preserve flexibility be revisited often as climate change unfolds. We then present the results of a number of empirical studies of decision making for drought in urban water systems in the United States to understand

  8. Case histories in pharmaceutical risk management.

    PubMed

    McCormick, Cynthia G; Henningfield, Jack E; Haddox, J David; Varughese, Sajan; Lindholm, Anders; Rosen, Susan; Wissel, Janne; Waxman, Deborah; Carter, Lawrence P; Seeger, Vickie; Johnson, Rolley E

    2009-12-01

    The development and implementation of programs in the U.S. to minimize risks and assess unintended consequences of new medications has been increasingly required by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) since the mid 1990s. This paper provides four case histories of risk management and post-marketing surveillance programs utilized recently to address problems associated with possible abuse, dependence and diversion. The pharmaceutical sponsors of each of these drugs were invited to present their programs and followed a similar template for their summaries that are included in this article. The drugs and presenting companies were OxyContin, an analgesic marketed by Purdue Pharma L.P., Daytrana and Vyvanse, ADHD medications marketed by Shire Pharmaceuticals, Xyrem for narcolepsy marketed by Jazz Pharmaceuticals, and Subutex and Suboxone for opioid dependence marketed by Reckitt Benckiser Pharmaceuticals Inc. These case histories and subsequent discussions provide invaluable real-world examples and illustrate both the promise of risk management programs in providing a path to market and/or for keeping on the market drugs with serious potential risks. They also illustrate the limitations of such programs in actually controlling unintended consequences, as well as the challenge of finding the right balance of reducing risks without posing undue barriers to patient access. These experiences are highly relevant as the FDA increasingly requires pharmaceutical sponsors to develop and implement the more formalized and enforceable versions of the risk management term Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategies (REMS). PMID:19767156

  9. RISK MANAGEMENT OF SEDIMENT STRESS: A FRAMEWORK FOR SEDIMENT RISK MANAGEMENT RESEARCH

    EPA Science Inventory

    Research related to the ecological risk management of sediment stress in watersheds is placed under a common conceptual framework in order to help promote the timely advance of decision support methods for aquatic resource managers and watershed-level planning. The proposed risk ...

  10. Managing dynamic epidemiological risks through trade

    PubMed Central

    Horan, Richard D.; Fenichel, Eli P.; Finnoff, David; Wolf, Christopher A.

    2015-01-01

    There is growing concern that trade, by connecting geographically isolated regions, unintentionally facilitates the spread of invasive pathogens and pests – forms of biological pollution that pose significant risks to ecosystem and human health. We use a bioeconomic framework to examine whether trade always increases private risks, focusing specifically on pathogen risks from live animal trade. When the pathogens have already established and traders bear some private risk, we find two results that run counter to the conventional wisdom on trade. First, uncertainty about the disease status of individual animals held in inventory may increase the incentives to trade relative to the disease-free case. Second, trade may facilitate reduced long-run disease prevalence among buyers. These results arise because disease risks are endogenous due to dynamic feedback processes involving valuable inventories, and markets facilitate the management of private risks that producers face with or without trade. PMID:25914431

  11. Role of LEPCs in risk management and risk communication

    SciTech Connect

    Mannan, M.

    1995-12-31

    Under Section 112(r) of Title III of the Clean Air Act Amendments, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is required to develop regulations that would require development and implementation of risk management programs at facilities that manufacture, process, use, store, or otherwise handle regulated substances in quantities that exceed specified threshold quantities. On January 31, 1994, EPA published the final rule establishing the List of Regulated Substances and Thresholds for Accidental Release Prevention. The proposed rule will require covered facilities to develop and implement a risk management program. The proposed rule will also require facilities to communicate various information to the local emergency planning committee (LEPC). This information may be provided in the form of consultation and communication during the development of various elements of the risk management program and/or by providing access to the risk management plan (RMP). These requirements not only place an additional regulatory burden on facilities but also create the need for the LEPCs to start planning for strategies to deal with significant amount of technical information in a meaningful and effective manner. This paper presents a summary of EPA`s proposed rule, the role of LEPCs in the implementation of many aspects of the rule, and a description of the potential contents of an RMP. Covered facilities as well as the LEPCs may gain a significant advantage by engaging in early dialogue and proactive education to determine mutual needs.

  12. Risk evaluation mitigation strategies: the evolution of risk management policy.

    PubMed

    Hollingsworth, Kristen; Toscani, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has the primary regulatory responsibility to ensure that medications are safe and effective both prior to drug approval and while the medication is being actively marketed by manufacturers. The responsibility for safe medications prior to marketing was signed into law in 1938 under the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act; however, a significant risk management evolution has taken place since 1938. Additional federal rules, entitled the Food and Drug Administration Amendments Act, were established in 2007 and extended the government's oversight through the addition of a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for certain drugs. REMS is a mandated strategy to manage a known or potentially serious risk associated with a medication or biological product. Reasons for this extension of oversight were driven primarily by the FDA's movement to ensure that patients and providers are better informed of drug therapies and their specific benefits and risks prior to initiation. This article provides an historical perspective of the evolution of medication risk management policy and includes a review of REMS programs, an assessment of the positive and negative aspects of REMS, and provides suggestions for planning and measuring outcomes. In particular, this publication presents an overview of the evolution of the REMS program and its implications.

  13. Accelerating adaptation of natural resource management to address climate change.

    PubMed

    Cross, Molly S; McCarthy, Patrick D; Garfin, Gregg; Gori, David; Enquist, Carolyn A F

    2013-02-01

    Natural resource managers are seeking tools to help them address current and future effects of climate change. We present a model for collaborative planning aimed at identifying ways to adapt management actions to address the effects of climate change in landscapes that cross public and private jurisdictional boundaries. The Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI) piloted the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) planning approach at workshops in 4 southwestern U.S. landscapes. This planning approach successfully increased participants' self-reported capacity to address climate change by providing them with a better understanding of potential effects and guiding the identification of solutions. The workshops fostered cross-jurisdictional and multidisciplinary dialogue on climate change through active participation of scientists and managers in assessing climate change effects, discussing the implications of those effects for determining management goals and activities, and cultivating opportunities for regional coordination on adaptation of management plans. Facilitated application of the ACT framework advanced group discussions beyond assessing effects to devising options to mitigate the effects of climate change on specific species, ecological functions, and ecosystems. Participants addressed uncertainty about future conditions by considering more than one climate-change scenario. They outlined opportunities and identified next steps for implementing several actions, and local partnerships have begun implementing actions and conducting additional planning. Continued investment in adaptation of management plans and actions to address the effects of climate change in the southwestern United States and extension of the approaches used in this project to additional landscapes are needed if biological diversity and ecosystem services are to be maintained in a rapidly changing world.

  14. Towards integrative risk management and more resilient societies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Khudhairy, D.; Axhausen, K.; Bishop, S.; Herrmann, H.; Hu, B.; Kröger, W.; Lewis, T.; MacIntosh, J.; Nowak, A.; Pickl, S.; Stauffacher, D.; Tan, E.

    2012-11-01

    Society depends decisively on the availability of infrastructure systems such as energy, telecommunication, transportation, banking and finance, health care and governmental and public administration. Even selective damages of one of these infrastructures may result in disruptions of governmental, industrial or public functions. Vulnerability of infrastructures therefore provides spectacular leverage for natural disasters as well as criminal and terrorist actions. Threats and risks are part of the technological, economical, and societal development. This article focuses on the development and characterization of an integrative risk-management which, from the perspective of "resilient systems", can be seen as an innovative and pro-active crisis management approach dealing with the increasing amount of complexity in societies in a comprehensive, agile and adaptive way.

  15. Drought early warning and risk management in a changing environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2011-12-01

    Drought has long been recognized as falling into the category of incremental but long-term and cumulative environmental changes, also termed slow-onset or creeping events. These event types would include: air and water quality decline, desertification processes, deforestation and forest fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and habitats, and nitrogen overloading, among others. Climate scientists continue to struggle with recognizing the onset of drought and scientists and policy makers continue to debate the basis (i.e., criteria) for declaring an end to a drought. Risk-based management approaches to drought planning at the national and regional levels have been recommended repeatedly over the years but their prototyping, testing and operational implementation have been limited. This presentation will outline two avenues for disaster risk reduction in the context of drought (1) integrated early warning information systems, and (2) linking disaster risk reduction to climate change adaptation strategies. Adaptation involves not only using operational facilities and infrastructure to cope with the immediate problems but also leaving slack or reserve for coping with multiple stress problems that produce extreme impacts and surprise. Increasing the 'anticipatability' of an event, involves both monitoring of key indicators from appropriate baseline data, and observing early warning signs that assumptions in risk management plans are failing and critical transitions are occurring. Illustrative cases will be drawn from the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (2011), the UN Global Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction (2011) and implementation activities in which the author has been engaged. Most drought early warning systems have tended to focus on the development and use of physical system indicators and forecasts of trends and thresholds. We show that successful early warning systems that meet expectations of risk management also have

  16. A Pilot Test of a Graduate Course in Suicide Theory, Risk Assessment, and Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cramer, Robert J.; Bryson, Claire N.; Stroud, Caroline H.; Ridge, Brittany E.

    2016-01-01

    The present discussion outlines the design and initial implementation of a semester-long graduate course in suicide theory, risk assessment, and management. While the structure of the course is adaptable in light of various considerations (e.g., targeted group of students and availability of resources), we review suicide risk assessment core…

  17. Parenteral nutrition: risks, complications, and management.

    PubMed

    Worthington, Patricia H; Gilbert, Karen A

    2012-01-01

    Parenteral nutrition is a life-saving modality, but one that also carries risks for potentially life-threatening complications. Comprehensive management of patients receiving parenteral nutrition includes careful selection of candidates, individualizing formulas to meet patients' unique needs, monitoring response to therapy, and implementing strategies designed to avoid complications. Measures to mitigate the risk of central line-associated bloodstream infections are particularly important. As with all complex therapies, a collaborative, multidisciplinary approach promotes optimal outcomes. PMID:22222292

  18. 75 FR 30106 - Terrorism Risk Insurance Program; Litigation Management Submissions

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-05-28

    ... Terrorism Risk Insurance Program; Litigation Management Submissions AGENCY: Departmental Offices. ACTION..., the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Office is seeking comments regarding Litigation Management..., preferably an original and two copies) to: Terrorism Risk Insurance Program, Public Comment Record,...

  19. Framework for managing mycotoxin risks in the food industry.

    PubMed

    Baker, Robert C; Ford, Randall M; Helander, Mary E; Marecki, Janusz; Natarajan, Ramesh; Ray, Bonnie

    2014-12-01

    We propose a methodological framework for managing mycotoxin risks in the food processing industry. Mycotoxin contamination is a well-known threat to public health that has economic significance for the food processing industry; it is imperative to address mycotoxin risks holistically, at all points in the procurement, processing, and distribution pipeline, by tracking the relevant data, adopting best practices, and providing suitable adaptive controls. The proposed framework includes (i) an information and data repository, (ii) a collaborative infrastructure with analysis and simulation tools, (iii) standardized testing and acceptance sampling procedures, and (iv) processes that link the risk assessments and testing results to the sourcing, production, and product release steps. The implementation of suitable acceptance sampling protocols for mycotoxin testing is considered in some detail.

  20. Designing Forest Adaptation Experiments through Manager-Scientist Partnerships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagel, L. M.; Swanston, C.; Janowiak, M.

    2014-12-01

    Three common forest adaptation options discussed in the context of an uncertain future climate are: creating resistance, promoting resilience, and enabling forests to respond to change. Though there is consensus on the broad management goals addressed by each of these options, translating these concepts into management plans specific for individual forest types that vary in structure, composition, and function remains a challenge. We will describe a decision-making framework that we employed within a manager-scientist partnership to develop a suite of adaptation treatments for two contrasting forest types as part of a long-term forest management experiment. The first, in northern Minnesota, is a red pine-dominated forest with components of white pine, aspen, paper birch, and northern red oak, with a hazel understory. The second, in southwest Colorado, is a warm-dry mixed conifer forest dominated by ponderosa pine, white fir, and Douglas-fir, with scattered aspen and an understory of Gambel oak. The current conditions at both sites are characterized by overstocking with moderate-to-high fuel loading, vulnerability to numerous forest health threats, and are generally uncharacteristic of historic structure and composition. The desired future condition articulated by managers for each site included elements of historic structure and natural range of variability, but were greatly tempered by known vulnerabilities and projected changes to climate and disturbance patterns. The resultant range of treatments we developed are distinct for each forest type, and address a wide range of management objectives.

  1. NGNP Risk Management through Assessing Technology Readiness

    SciTech Connect

    John W. Collins

    2010-08-01

    Throughout the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) project life cycle, technical risks are identified, analyzed, and mitigated and decisions are made regarding the design and selection of plant and sub-system configurations, components and their fabrication materials, and operating conditions. Risk resolution and decision making are key elements that help achieve project completion within budget and schedule constraints and desired plant availability. To achieve this objective, a formal decision-making and risk management process was developed for NGNP, based on proven systems engineering principles that have guided aerospace and military applications.

  2. Fatigue Risk Management: A Maritime Framework

    PubMed Central

    Grech, Michelle Rita

    2016-01-01

    It is evident that despite efforts directed at mitigating the risk of fatigue through the adoption of hours of work and rest regulations and development of codes and guidelines, fatigue still remains a concern in shipping. Lack of fatigue management has been identified as a contributory factor in a number of recent accidents. This is further substantiated through research reports with shortfalls highlighted in current fatigue management approaches. These approaches mainly focus on prescriptive hours of work and rest and include an individualistic approach to managing fatigue. The expectation is that seafarers are responsible to manage and tolerate fatigue as part of their working life at sea. This attitude is an accepted part of a seafarer’s role. Poor compliance is one manifest of this problem with shipboard demands making it hard for seafarers to follow hours of work and rest regulations, forcing them into this “poor compliance” trap. This makes current fatigue management approaches ineffective. This paper proposes a risk based approach and way forward for the implementation of a fatigue risk management framework for shipping, aiming to support the hours of work and rest requirements. This forms part of the work currently underway to review and update the International Maritime Organization, Guidelines on Fatigue. PMID:26840326

  3. Fatigue Risk Management: A Maritime Framework.

    PubMed

    Grech, Michelle Rita

    2016-02-01

    It is evident that despite efforts directed at mitigating the risk of fatigue through the adoption of hours of work and rest regulations and development of codes and guidelines, fatigue still remains a concern in shipping. Lack of fatigue management has been identified as a contributory factor in a number of recent accidents. This is further substantiated through research reports with shortfalls highlighted in current fatigue management approaches. These approaches mainly focus on prescriptive hours of work and rest and include an individualistic approach to managing fatigue. The expectation is that seafarers are responsible to manage and tolerate fatigue as part of their working life at sea. This attitude is an accepted part of a seafarer's role. Poor compliance is one manifest of this problem with shipboard demands making it hard for seafarers to follow hours of work and rest regulations, forcing them into this "poor compliance" trap. This makes current fatigue management approaches ineffective. This paper proposes a risk based approach and way forward for the implementation of a fatigue risk management framework for shipping, aiming to support the hours of work and rest requirements. This forms part of the work currently underway to review and update the International Maritime Organization, Guidelines on Fatigue.

  4. Cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis: assessment, management and next steps.

    PubMed

    Zegkos, Thomas; Kitas, George; Dimitroulas, Theodoros

    2016-06-01

    Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is associated with increased cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality which cannot be fully explained by traditional CV risk factors; cumulative inflammatory burden and antirheumatic medication-related cardiotoxicity seem to be important contributors. Despite the acknowledgment and appreciation of CV disease burden in RA, optimal management of individuals with RA represents a challenging task which remains suboptimal. To address this need, the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) published recommendations suggesting the adaptation of traditional risk scores by using a multiplication factor of 1.5 if two of three specific criteria are fulfilled. Such guidance requires proper coordination of several medical specialties, including general practitioners, rheumatologists, cardiologists, exercise physiologists and psychologists to achieve a desirable result. Tight control of disease activity, management of traditional risk factors and lifestyle modification represent, amongst others, the most important steps in improving CV disease outcomes in RA patients. Rather than enumerating studies and guidelines, this review attempts to critically appraise current literature, highlighting future perspectives of CV risk management in RA.

  5. Cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis: assessment, management and next steps

    PubMed Central

    Zegkos, Thomas; Kitas, George; Dimitroulas, Theodoros

    2016-01-01

    Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is associated with increased cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality which cannot be fully explained by traditional CV risk factors; cumulative inflammatory burden and antirheumatic medication-related cardiotoxicity seem to be important contributors. Despite the acknowledgment and appreciation of CV disease burden in RA, optimal management of individuals with RA represents a challenging task which remains suboptimal. To address this need, the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) published recommendations suggesting the adaptation of traditional risk scores by using a multiplication factor of 1.5 if two of three specific criteria are fulfilled. Such guidance requires proper coordination of several medical specialties, including general practitioners, rheumatologists, cardiologists, exercise physiologists and psychologists to achieve a desirable result. Tight control of disease activity, management of traditional risk factors and lifestyle modification represent, amongst others, the most important steps in improving CV disease outcomes in RA patients. Rather than enumerating studies and guidelines, this review attempts to critically appraise current literature, highlighting future perspectives of CV risk management in RA. PMID:27247635

  6. Risk management and data: managed care company perspective.

    PubMed

    Kanwit, S W

    1998-11-01

    As both public and private health plans move increasingly to managed care, a vigorous debate is occurring about how to ensure health care quality for the American public, while at the same time managing the cost of that care. Health plans generate large volumes of data related to their networks and providers, plan sponsors, member care, and medical protocols. This data can help assure quality, and at the same time help managed care organizations deal with one of the most critical tasks facing them--risk management. This paper may be helpful in providing an outline of two key areas--managed care liability for quality of patient care, and privacy and confidentiality concerns from a managed care organization perspective--followed by suggestions to avoid or minimize liability. PMID:10028510

  7. Risk based management of piping systems

    SciTech Connect

    Conley, M.J.; Aller, J.E.; Tallin, A.; Weber, B.J.

    1996-07-01

    The API Piping Inspection Code is the first such Code to require classification of piping based on the consequences of failure, and to use this classification to influence inspection activity. Since this Code was published, progress has been made in the development of tools to improve on this approach by determining not only the consequences of failure, but also the likelihood of failure. ``Risk`` is defined as the product of the consequence and the likelihood. Measuring risk provides the means to formally manage risk by matching the inspection effort (costs) to the benefits of reduced risk. Using such a cost/benefit analysis allows the optimization of inspection budgets while meeting societal demands for reduction of the risk associated with process plant piping. This paper presents an overview of the tools developed to measure risk, and the methods to determine the effects of past and future inspections on the level of risk. The methodology is being developed as an industry-sponsored project under the direction of an API committee. The intent is to develop an API Recommended Practice that will be linked to In-Service Inspection Standards and the emerging Fitness for Service procedures. Actual studies using a similar approach have shown that a very high percentage of the risk due to piping in an operating facility is associated with relatively few pieces of piping. This permits inspection efforts to be focused on those piping systems that will result in the greatest risk reduction.

  8. Risk management for the Space Exploration Initiative

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buchbinder, Ben

    1993-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a quantitative engineering process that provides the analytic structure and decision-making framework for total programmatic risk management. Ideally, it is initiated in the conceptual design phase and used throughout the program life cycle. Although PRA was developed for assessment of safety, reliability, and availability risk, it has far greater application. Throughout the design phase, PRA can guide trade-off studies among system performance, safety, reliability, cost, and schedule. These studies are based on the assessment of the risk of meeting each parameter goal, with full consideration of the uncertainties. Quantitative trade-off studies are essential, but without full identification, propagation, and display of uncertainties, poor decisions may result. PRA also can focus attention on risk drivers in situations where risk is too high. For example, if safety risk is unacceptable, the PRA prioritizes the risk contributors to guide the use of resources for risk mitigation. PRA is used in the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) Program. To meet the stringent requirements of the SEI mission, within strict budgetary constraints, the PRA structure supports informed and traceable decision-making. This paper briefly describes the SEI PRA process.

  9. RISK COMMUNICATION AS A RISK MANAGEMENT TOOL: A RISK COMMUNICATION WORKBOOK

    EPA Science Inventory

    Communicating information about environmental risk to the people most affected by it is one of the major challenges faced by risk managers and community decision makers. Changing human behavior is a far more complex task than designing water retention systems or managing storm wa...

  10. Climate change adaptation through urban heat management in Atlanta, Georgia.

    PubMed

    Stone, Brian; Vargo, Jason; Liu, Peng; Hu, Yongtao; Russell, Armistead

    2013-07-16

    This study explores the potential effectiveness of metropolitan land cover change as a climate change adaptation strategy for managing rising temperatures in a large and rapidly warming metropolitan region of the United States. Through the integration of a mesoscale meteorological model with estimated land cover data for the Atlanta, Georgia region in 2010, this study quantifies the influence of extensive land cover change at the periphery of a large metropolitan region on temperature within the city center. The first study to directly model a metropolitan scale heat transfer mechanism, we find both enhanced tree canopy and impervious cover in the suburban zones of the Atlanta region to produce statistically significant cooling and warming effects in the urban core. Based on these findings, we conclude that urban heat island management both within and beyond the central developed core of large cities may provide an effective climate change adaptation strategy for large metropolitan regions.

  11. Adaptive Sampling Algorithms for Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Nuclear Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Diego Mandelli; Dan Maljovec; Bei Wang; Valerio Pascucci; Peer-Timo Bremer

    2013-09-01

    Nuclear simulations are often computationally expensive, time-consuming, and high-dimensional with respect to the number of input parameters. Thus exploring the space of all possible simulation outcomes is infeasible using finite computing resources. During simulation-based probabilistic risk analysis, it is important to discover the relationship between a potentially large number of input parameters and the output of a simulation using as few simulation trials as possible. This is a typical context for performing adaptive sampling where a few observations are obtained from the simulation, a surrogate model is built to represent the simulation space, and new samples are selected based on the model constructed. The surrogate model is then updated based on the simulation results of the sampled points. In this way, we attempt to gain the most information possible with a small number of carefully selected sampled points, limiting the number of expensive trials needed to understand features of the simulation space. We analyze the specific use case of identifying the limit surface, i.e., the boundaries in the simulation space between system failure and system success. In this study, we explore several techniques for adaptively sampling the parameter space in order to reconstruct the limit surface. We focus on several adaptive sampling schemes. First, we seek to learn a global model of the entire simulation space using prediction models or neighborhood graphs and extract the limit surface as an iso-surface of the global model. Second, we estimate the limit surface by sampling in the neighborhood of the current estimate based on topological segmentations obtained locally. Our techniques draw inspirations from topological structure known as the Morse-Smale complex. We highlight the advantages and disadvantages of using a global prediction model versus local topological view of the simulation space, comparing several different strategies for adaptive sampling in both

  12. Managing oil and gas price risk

    SciTech Connect

    Edwards, T.K.

    1995-12-31

    This paper presents a review of managing oil and gas product price risk with the basic types of derivative products available to producers. Introducing the futures markets, basic types of hedges and factors affecting prices will be covered. Several case histories will be discussed in detail from the initial decision making process to actual performance to date.

  13. 17 CFR 39.13 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... ORGANIZATIONS Compliance with Core Principles § 39.13 Risk management. (a) General. A derivatives clearing... product is a significant input into the other product(s); (C) The products share a significant common input; or (D) The prices of the products are influenced by common external factors. (ii) A...

  14. 17 CFR 39.13 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... ORGANIZATIONS Compliance with Core Principles § 39.13 Risk management. (a) General. A derivatives clearing... product is a significant input into the other product(s); (C) The products share a significant common input; or (D) The prices of the products are influenced by common external factors. (ii) A...

  15. UTILITY DATA ARCHIVING FOR RISK MANAGEMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA let a contract for a consultant to collect information about historical changes in operations and maintenance, design and construction, and planning and siting for water and wastewater infrastructure. The goal of this research study is to determine risk management alternativ...

  16. 17 CFR 39.13 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... clearing organization shall conduct stress tests, as defined in § 39.2 of this part, as follows: (i) On a daily basis, a derivatives clearing organization shall conduct stress tests with respect to each large... ORGANIZATIONS Compliance with Core Principles § 39.13 Risk management. (a) General. A derivatives...

  17. Adaptive management: a paradigm for remediation of public facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Janecky, David R; Whicker, Jeffrey J; Doerr, Ted B

    2009-01-01

    Public facility restoration planning traditionally focused on response to natural disasters and hazardous materials accidental releases. These plans now need to integrate response to terrorist actions. Therefore, plans must address a wide range of potential vulnerabilities. Similar types of broad remediation planning are needed for restoration of waste and hazardous material handling areas and facilities. There are strong similarities in damage results and remediation activities between unintentional and terrorist actions; however, the uncertainties associated with terrorist actions result in a re-evaluation of approaches to planning. Restoration of public facilities following a release of a hazardous material is inherently far more complex than in confined industrial settings and has many unique technical, economic, social, and political challenges. Therefore, they arguably involve a superset of drivers, concerns and public agencies compared to other restoration efforts. This superset of conditions increases complexity of interactions, reduces our knowledge of the initial conditions, and even condenses the timeline for restoration response. Therefore, evaluations of alternative restoration management approaches developed for responding to terrorist actions provide useful knowledge for large, complex waste management projects. Whereas present planning documents have substantial linearity in their organization, the 'adaptive management' paradigm provides a constructive parallel operations paradigm for restoration of facilities that anticipates and plans for uncertainty, multiple/simUltaneous public agency actions, and stakeholder participation. Adaptive management grew out of the need to manage and restore natural resources in highly complex and changing environments with limited knowledge about causal relationships and responses to restoration actions. Similarities between natural resource management and restoration of a facility and surrounding area(s) after a

  18. An open framework for risk management

    SciTech Connect

    Craft, R.; Vandewart, R.; Wyss, G.; Funkhouser, D.

    1998-08-01

    Risk assessment methodologies are ready to enter their third generation. In this next generation, assessment will be based on a whole system understanding of the system to be assessed. To realize this vision of risk management, the authors have begun development of an extensible software tool kit. This tool kit breaks with the traditional approach to assessment by having the analyst spend the majority of the assessment time building an explicit model that documents in a single framework the various facets of the system, such as the system`s behavior, structure, and history. Given this explicit model of the system, a computer is able to automatically produce a standard assessment products, such as fault trees and event trees. This brings with it a number of advantages relative to current risk management tools. Among these are a greater sense of completeness and correctness in assessment results and the ability to preserve and later employ lessons learned.

  19. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

  20. Risking a Debate--Redefining Risk and Risk Management: A New Zealand Case Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zink, Robyn; Leberman, Sarah

    2001-01-01

    Interviews with 12 New Zealand outdoor instructors found that they viewed risk as an opportunity to gain something of value, as opposed to losing something of value. Repositioning risk in this manner could allow the debate around adventure education to move away from being dominated by risk management, allowing consideration of adventure…

  1. Risk and risk management for Australian sex workers.

    PubMed

    Harris, Margaret; Nilan, Pam; Kirby, Emma

    2011-03-01

    In this article, we address the experiences of female sex workers in urban Australia through analysis of interviews using a feminist approach. Although many previous studies have been conducted, our focus was on the voices of sex workers in an area that was rapidly gentrifying, leading to local community tensions. Intensive analysis of interview transcripts was employed to derive thematic codes for understanding how the women viewed and managed everyday risk in sex work. They were well aware of the health risks associated with sex work. For women working on premises, domain separation between sex work and other life domains was an important management strategy for maintaining self-esteem. For women working on the street, instincts honed by years of dangerous work provided a measure of safety. Our findings have implications for health and other agencies dealing with sex workers in situations in which community pressure is exerted to move sex workers away from the area. PMID:20952601

  2. Human System Risk Management for Space Flight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davis, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    This brief abstract reviews the development of the current day approach to human system risk management for space flight and the development of the critical components of this process over the past few years. The human system risk management process now provides a comprehensive assessment of each human system risk by design reference mission (DRM) and is evaluated not only for mission success but also for long-term health impacts for the astronauts. The discipline of bioastronautics is the study of the biological and medical effects of space flight on humans. In 1997, the Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) initiated the Bioastronautics Roadmap (Roadmap) as the "Critical Path Roadmap", and in 1998 participation in the roadmap was expanded to include the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) and the external community. A total of 55 risks and 250 questions were identified and prioritized and in 2000, the Roadmap was base-lined and put under configuration control. The Roadmap took into account several major advisory committee reviews including the Institute of Medicine (IOM) "Safe Passage: Astronaut care for Exploration Missions", 2001. Subsequently, three collaborating organizations at NASA HQ (Chief Health and Medical Officer, Office of Space Flight and Office of Biological & Physical Research), published the Bioastronautics Strategy in 2003, that identified the human as a "critical subsystem of space flight" and noted that "tolerance limits and safe operating bands must be established" to enable human space flight. These offices also requested a review by the IOM of the Roadmap and that review was published in October 2005 as "A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Exploration of Space: A Review of NASA's Bioastronautics Roadmap", that noted several strengths and weaknesses of the Roadmap and made several recommendations. In parallel with the development of the Roadmap, the Office of the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) began a process in

  3. 12 CFR 704.6 - Credit risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Credit risk management. 704.6 Section 704.6... CREDIT UNIONS § 704.6 Credit risk management. (a) Policies. A corporate credit union must operate according to a credit risk management policy that is commensurate with the investment risks and...

  4. 12 CFR 704.6 - Credit risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Credit risk management. 704.6 Section 704.6... CREDIT UNIONS § 704.6 Credit risk management. (a) Policies. A corporate credit union must operate according to a credit risk management policy that is commensurate with the investment risks and...

  5. 12 CFR 704.6 - Credit risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Credit risk management. 704.6 Section 704.6... CREDIT UNIONS § 704.6 Credit risk management. (a) Policies. A corporate credit union must operate according to a credit risk management policy that is commensurate with the investment risks and...

  6. 12 CFR 704.6 - Credit risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Credit risk management. 704.6 Section 704.6... CREDIT UNIONS § 704.6 Credit risk management. (a) Policies. A corporate credit union must operate according to a credit risk management policy that is commensurate with the investment risks and...

  7. 12 CFR 704.6 - Credit risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Credit risk management. 704.6 Section 704.6... CREDIT UNIONS § 704.6 Credit risk management. (a) Policies. A corporate credit union must operate according to a credit risk management policy that is commensurate with the investment risks and...

  8. [Managing health risks of workers in business trip].

    PubMed

    Gevorkian, E V

    2014-01-01

    The article presents data of prospective observation over the risk management system concerning health of international oil and gas company workers in business trips. The management system included training and screening of workers under risk, specific prophylaxis and other measures. The authors described problems of the risk management system implementation, suggested recommendations to control risks connected with business trips.

  9. Pathology and failure in the design and implementation of adaptive management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, Craig R.; Gunderson, Lance H.

    2011-01-01

    The conceptual underpinnings for adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex ecological systems as a result non-linear interactions among components and emergence, yet management decisions must still be made. The strength of adaptive management is in the recognition and confrontation of such uncertainty. Rather than ignore uncertainty, or use it to preclude management actions, adaptive management can foster resilience and flexibility to cope with an uncertain future, and develop safe to fail management approaches that acknowledge inevitable changes and surprises. Since its initial introduction, adaptive management has been hailed as a solution to endless trial and error approaches to complex natural resource management challenges. However, its implementation has failed more often than not. It does not produce easy answers, and it is appropriate in only a subset of natural resource management problems. Clearly adaptive management has great potential when applied appropriately. Just as clearly adaptive management has seemingly failed to live up to its high expectations. Why? We outline nine pathologies and challenges that can lead to failure in adaptive management programs. We focus on general sources of failures in adaptive management, so that others can avoid these pitfalls in the future. Adaptive management can be a powerful and beneficial tool when applied correctly to appropriate management problems; the challenge is to keep the concept of adaptive management from being hijacked for inappropriate use.

  10. Meteorological risks as drivers of innovation for agroecosystem management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gobin, Anne; Van de Vyver, Hans; Zamani, Sepideh; Curnel, Yannick; Planchon, Viviane; Verspecht, Ann; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

    2015-04-01

    Devastating weather-related events recorded in recent years have captured the interest of the general public in Belgium. The MERINOVA project research hypothesis is that meteorological risks act as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management which is being tested using a "chain of risk" approach. The major objectives are to (1) assess the probability of extreme meteorological events by means of probability density functions; (2) analyse the extreme events impact of on agro-ecosystems using process-based bio-physical modelling methods; (3) identify the most vulnerable agro-ecosystems using fuzzy multi-criteria and spatial analysis; (4) uncover innovative risk management and adaptation options using actor-network theory and economic modelling; and, (5) communicate to research, policy and practitioner communities using web-based techniques. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theory was used to model annual rainfall maxima based on location-, scale- and shape-parameters that determine the centre of the distribution, the deviation of the location-parameter and the upper tail decay, respectively. Likewise the distributions of consecutive rainy days, rainfall deficits and extreme 24-hour rainfall were modelled. Spatial interpolation of GEV-derived return levels resulted in maps of extreme precipitation, precipitation deficits and wet periods. The degree of temporal overlap between extreme weather conditions and sensitive periods in the agro-ecosystem was determined using a bio-physically based modelling framework that couples phenological models, a soil water balance, crop growth and environmental models. 20-year return values were derived for frost, heat stress, drought, waterlogging and field access during different sensitive stages for different arable crops. Extreme yield values were detected from detrended long term arable yields and relationships were found with soil moisture conditions, heat stress or other meteorological variables during the

  11. Meteorological risks as drivers of innovation for agroecosystem management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gobin, Anne; Van de Vyver, Hans; Zamani, Sepideh; Curnel, Yannick; Planchon, Viviane; Verspecht, Ann; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

    2015-04-01

    Devastating weather-related events recorded in recent years have captured the interest of the general public in Belgium. The MERINOVA project research hypothesis is that meteorological risks act as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management which is being tested using a "chain of risk" approach. The major objectives are to (1) assess the probability of extreme meteorological events by means of probability density functions; (2) analyse the extreme events impact of on agro-ecosystems using process-based bio-physical modelling methods; (3) identify the most vulnerable agro-ecosystems using fuzzy multi-criteria and spatial analysis; (4) uncover innovative risk management and adaptation options using actor-network theory and economic modelling; and, (5) communicate to research, policy and practitioner communities using web-based techniques. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theory was used to model annual rainfall maxima based on location-, scale- and shape-parameters that determine the centre of the distribution, the deviation of the location-parameter and the upper tail decay, respectively. Likewise the distributions of consecutive rainy days, rainfall deficits and extreme 24-hour rainfall were modelled. Spatial interpolation of GEV-derived return levels resulted in maps of extreme precipitation, precipitation deficits and wet periods. The degree of temporal overlap between extreme weather conditions and sensitive periods in the agro-ecosystem was determined using a bio-physically based modelling framework that couples phenological models, a soil water balance, crop growth and environmental models. 20-year return values were derived for frost, heat stress, drought, waterlogging and field access during different sensitive stages for different arable crops. Extreme yield values were detected from detrended long term arable yields and relationships were found with soil moisture conditions, heat stress or other meteorological variables during the

  12. 77 FR 30517 - Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-23

    ... to develop a flexible risk management process tuned to the diverse missions, equipment, and business... Electricity Subsector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process AGENCY: Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy... Management Process guideline. The guideline describes a risk management process that is targeted to...

  13. Risk management activities at the DOE Class A reactor facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Sharp, D.A.; Hill, D.J.; Linn, M.A.; Atkinson, S.A.; Hu, J.P.

    1993-12-31

    The probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and risk management group of the Association for Excellence in Reactor Operation (AERO) develops risk management initiatives and standards to improve operation and increase safety of the DOE Class A reactor facilities. Principal risk management applications that have been implemented at each facility are reviewed. The status of a program to develop guidelines for risk management programs at reactor facilities is presented.

  14. Risk management activities at the DOE Class A reactor facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Sharp, D.A. ); Hill, D.J. ); Linn, M.A. ); Atkinson, S.A. ); Hu, J.P. )

    1993-01-01

    The probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and risk management group of the Association for Excellence in Reactor Operation (AERO) develops risk management initiatives and standards to improve operation and increase safety of the DOE Class A reactor facilities. Principal risk management applications that have been implemented at each facility are reviewed. The status of a program to develop guidelines for risk management programs at reactor facilities is presented.

  15. Adaptive introgression as a resource for management and genetic conservation in a changing climate.

    PubMed

    Hamilton, Jill A; Miller, Joshua M

    2016-02-01

    Current rates of climate change require organisms to respond through migration, phenotypic plasticity, or genetic changes via adaptation. We focused on questions regarding species' and populations' ability to respond to climate change through adaptation. Specifically, the role adaptive introgression, movement of genetic material from the genome of 1 species into the genome of another through repeated interbreeding, may play in increasing species' ability to respond to a changing climate. Such interspecific gene flow may mediate extinction risk or consequences of limited adaptive potential that result from standing genetic variation and mutation alone, enabling a quicker demographic recovery in response to changing environments. Despite the near dismissal of the potential benefits of hybridization by conservation practitioners, we examined a number of case studies across different taxa that suggest gene flow between sympatric or parapatric sister species or within species that exhibit strong ecotypic differentiation may represent an underutilized management option to conserve evolutionary potential in a changing environment. This will be particularly true where advanced-generation hybrids exhibit adaptive traits outside the parental phenotypic range, a phenomenon known as transgressive segregation. The ideas presented in this essay are meant to provoke discussion regarding how we maintain evolutionary potential, the conservation value of natural hybrid zones, and consideration of their important role in adaptation to climate.

  16. 78 FR 54482 - Charter Renewal, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-09-04

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Charter Renewal, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of... the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group. The purpose of the Adaptive Management Work Group is to provide advice and recommendations to the Secretary concerning the operation of Glen Canyon...

  17. 76 FR 54487 - Charter Renewal, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-09-01

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Charter Renewal, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of... the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group. The purpose of the Adaptive Management Work Group... Canyon Dam and the exercise of other authorities pursuant to applicable Federal law. FOR...

  18. A Study of Disaster Adaptation Behavior and Risk Communication for watershed Area Resident - the Case of Kaoping River Watershed in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Te Pai, Jen; Chen, Yu-Yun; Huang, Kuan-Hua

    2016-04-01

    Along with the global climate change, the rainfall patterns become more centralized and cause natural disasters more frequently and heavily. Residents in river watersheds area are facing high risk of natural disasters and severe impacts, especially in Taiwan. From the experience of Typhoon Morakot in 2009, we learned that poor risk communication between the governments and the households and communities would lead to tremendous loss of property and life. Effective risk communication can trigger action to impending and current events. On the other hand, it can also build up knowledge on hazards and risks and encourage adaptation behaviors. Through the participation and cooperation of different stakeholders in disaster management, can reduce vulnerability, enhance adaptive capacity, improve the interaction between different stakeholders and also avoid conflicts. However, in Taiwan there are few studies about how households and communities perceive flood disaster risks, the process of risk communications between governments and households, or the relationship between risk communication and adaptation behaviors. Therefore, this study takes household and community of Kaoping River Watershed as study area. It aims to identify important factors in the process of disaster risk communication and find out the relationship between risk communication and adaptation behaviors. A framework of risk communication process was established to describe how to trigger adaptation behaviors and encourage adaptation behaviors with risk communication strategies. An ISM model was utilized to verify the framework by using household questionnaire survey. Moreover, a logit choice model was build to test the important factors for effective risk communication and adaption behavior. The result of this study would provide governments or relevant institutions suggestions about risk communication strategies and adaptation strategies to enhance the adaptive capacity of households and reduce the

  19. Integrating legal liabilities in nanomanufacturing risk management.

    PubMed

    Mohan, Mayank; Trump, Benjamin D; Bates, Matthew E; Monica, John C; Linkov, Igor

    2012-08-01

    Among other things, the wide-scale development and use of nanomaterials is expected to produce costly regulatory and civil liabilities for nanomanufacturers due to lingering uncertainties, unanticipated effects, and potential toxicity. The life-cycle environmental, health, and safety (EHS) risks of nanomaterials are currently being studied, but the corresponding legal risks have not been systematically addressed. With the aid of a systematic approach that holistically evaluates and accounts for uncertainties about the inherent properties of nanomaterials, it is possible to provide an order of magnitude estimate of liability risks from regulatory and litigious sources based on current knowledge. In this work, we present a conceptual framework for integrating estimated legal liabilities with EHS risks across nanomaterial life-cycle stages using empirical knowledge in the field, scientific and legal judgment, probabilistic risk assessment, and multicriteria decision analysis. Such estimates will provide investors and operators with a basis to compare different technologies and practices and will also inform regulatory and legislative bodies in determining standards that balance risks with technical advancement. We illustrate the framework through the hypothetical case of a manufacturer of nanoscale titanium dioxide and use the resulting expected legal costs to evaluate alternative risk-management actions.

  20. Towards dynamics in mountain hazard risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuchs, Sven; Keiler, Margreth; Sokratov, Sergey; Shnyparkov, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    Starting with an overview on losses due to mountain hazards in the Russian Federation and the European Alps the question is raised why a substantial number of events still is recorded - despite considerable efforts in hazard mitigation and risk reduction. The main reason for this paradox lies in a missing dynamic risk-based approach, and it is shown that these dynamics have different roots: Firstly, neglecting climate change and systems dynamics, the development of hazard scenarios is based on the static approach of design events. Secondly, due to economic development and population dynamics, the elements at risk exposed are subject to spatial and temporal changes. These issues are discussed with respect to temporal and spatial demands. As a result, it is shown how risk is dynamic on a long-term and short term scale, which has to be acknowledged in the risk concept if this concept is targeted at a sustainable development of mountain regions. A conceptual model is presented that can be used for dynamical risk assessment, and it is shown by different management strategies how this model may be converted into practice. Furthermore, the interconnectedness and interaction between hazard and risk are addressed in order to enhance prevention, the level of protection and the degree of preparedness.

  1. Integrating legal liabilities in nanomanufacturing risk management.

    PubMed

    Mohan, Mayank; Trump, Benjamin D; Bates, Matthew E; Monica, John C; Linkov, Igor

    2012-08-01

    Among other things, the wide-scale development and use of nanomaterials is expected to produce costly regulatory and civil liabilities for nanomanufacturers due to lingering uncertainties, unanticipated effects, and potential toxicity. The life-cycle environmental, health, and safety (EHS) risks of nanomaterials are currently being studied, but the corresponding legal risks have not been systematically addressed. With the aid of a systematic approach that holistically evaluates and accounts for uncertainties about the inherent properties of nanomaterials, it is possible to provide an order of magnitude estimate of liability risks from regulatory and litigious sources based on current knowledge. In this work, we present a conceptual framework for integrating estimated legal liabilities with EHS risks across nanomaterial life-cycle stages using empirical knowledge in the field, scientific and legal judgment, probabilistic risk assessment, and multicriteria decision analysis. Such estimates will provide investors and operators with a basis to compare different technologies and practices and will also inform regulatory and legislative bodies in determining standards that balance risks with technical advancement. We illustrate the framework through the hypothetical case of a manufacturer of nanoscale titanium dioxide and use the resulting expected legal costs to evaluate alternative risk-management actions. PMID:22717005

  2. Sustainable risk management for an evolving healthcare arena.

    PubMed

    Cole, Sarah A; Chaudhary, Raj; Bang, Derek A

    2014-06-01

    A sustainable risk management approach includes the use of extensive scenario analyses to mitigate the risk of reduced revenues from changes in payment and volume. A successful risk management program helps organizations prioritize strategies for risks that are likely to have the biggest impact on their business. Continually strengthening controls and mitigating risks through a risk management program can help to build an effective security and compliance program.

  3. The role of adaptive management as an operational approach for resource management agencies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, B.L.

    1999-01-01

    In making resource management decisions, agencies use a variety of approaches that involve different levels of political concern, historical precedence, data analyses, and evaluation. Traditional decision-making approaches have often failed to achieve objectives for complex problems in large systems, such as the Everglades or the Colorado River. I contend that adaptive management is the best approach available to agencies for addressing this type of complex problem, although its success has been limited thus far. Traditional decision-making approaches have been fairly successful at addressing relatively straightforward problems in small, replicated systems, such as management of trout in small streams or pulp production in forests. However, this success may be jeopardized as more users place increasing demands on these systems. Adaptive management has received little attention from agencies for addressing problems in small-scale systems, but I suggest that it may be a useful approach for creating a holistic view of common problems and developing guidelines that can then be used in simpler, more traditional approaches to management. Although adaptive management may be more expensive to initiate than traditional approaches, it may be less expensive in the long run if it leads to more effective management. The overall goal of adaptive management is not to maintain an optimal condition of the resource, but to develop an optimal management capacity. This is accomplished by maintaining ecological resilience that allows the system to react to inevitable stresses, and generating flexibility in institutions and stakeholders that allows managers to react when conditions change. The result is that, rather than managing for a single, optimal state, we manage within a range of acceptable outcomes while avoiding catastrophes and irreversible negative effects. Copyright ?? 1999 by The Resilience Alliance.

  4. Multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management.

    PubMed

    Hämäläinen, R P; Lindstedt, M R; Sinkko, K

    2000-08-01

    Radiation protection authorities have seen a potential for applying multiattribute risk analysis in nuclear emergency management and planning to deal with conflicting objectives, different parties involved, and uncertainties. This type of approach is expected to help in the following areas: to ensure that all relevant attributes are considered in decision making; to enhance communication between the concerned parties, including the public; and to provide a method for explicitly including risk analysis in the process. A multiattribute utility theory analysis was used to select a strategy for protecting the population after a simulated nuclear accident. The value-focused approach and the use of a neutral facilitator were identified as being useful. PMID:11051070

  5. Flexible Ubiquitous Learning Management System Adapted to Learning Context

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeong, Ji-Seong; Kim, Mihye; Park, Chan; Yoo, Jae-Soo; Yoo, Kwan-Hee

    This paper proposes a u-learning management system (ULMS) appropriate to the ubiquitous learning environment, with emphasis on the significance of context awareness and adaptation in learning. The proposed system supports the basic functions of an e-learning management system and incorporates a number of tools and additional features to provide a more customized learning service. The proposed system automatically corresponds to various forms of user terminal without modifying the existing system. The functions, formats, and course learning activities of the system are dynamically and adaptively constructed at runtime according to user terminals, course types, pedagogical goals as well as student characteristics and learning context. A prototype for university use has been implemented to demonstrate and evaluate the proposed approach. We regard the proposed ULMS as an ideal u-learning system because it can not only lead students into continuous and mobile 'anytime, anywhere' learning using any kind of terminal, but can also foster enhanced self-directed learning through the establishment of an adaptive learning environment.

  6. Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change.

    PubMed

    Anthony, Kenneth R N; Marshall, Paul A; Abdulla, Ameer; Beeden, Roger; Bergh, Chris; Black, Ryan; Eakin, C Mark; Game, Edward T; Gooch, Margaret; Graham, Nicholas A J; Green, Alison; Heron, Scott F; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Knowland, Cheryl; Mangubhai, Sangeeta; Marshall, Nadine; Maynard, Jeffrey A; McGinnity, Peter; McLeod, Elizabeth; Mumby, Peter J; Nyström, Magnus; Obura, David; Oliver, Jamie; Possingham, Hugh P; Pressey, Robert L; Rowlands, Gwilym P; Tamelander, Jerker; Wachenfeld, David; Wear, Stephanie

    2015-01-01

    Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local-scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio-economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience-Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press-type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse-type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo-Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on-the-ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on

  7. Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change

    PubMed Central

    Anthony, Kenneth RN; Marshall, Paul A; Abdulla, Ameer; Beeden, Roger; Bergh, Chris; Black, Ryan; Eakin, C Mark; Game, Edward T; Gooch, Margaret; Graham, Nicholas AJ; Green, Alison; Heron, Scott F; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Knowland, Cheryl; Mangubhai, Sangeeta; Marshall, Nadine; Maynard, Jeffrey A; McGinnity, Peter; McLeod, Elizabeth; Mumby, Peter J; Nyström, Magnus; Obura, David; Oliver, Jamie; Possingham, Hugh P; Pressey, Robert L; Rowlands, Gwilym P; Tamelander, Jerker; Wachenfeld, David; Wear, Stephanie

    2015-01-01

    Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local-scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio-economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience-Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press-type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse-type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo-Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on-the-ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on

  8. Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change.

    PubMed

    Anthony, Kenneth R N; Marshall, Paul A; Abdulla, Ameer; Beeden, Roger; Bergh, Chris; Black, Ryan; Eakin, C Mark; Game, Edward T; Gooch, Margaret; Graham, Nicholas A J; Green, Alison; Heron, Scott F; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Knowland, Cheryl; Mangubhai, Sangeeta; Marshall, Nadine; Maynard, Jeffrey A; McGinnity, Peter; McLeod, Elizabeth; Mumby, Peter J; Nyström, Magnus; Obura, David; Oliver, Jamie; Possingham, Hugh P; Pressey, Robert L; Rowlands, Gwilym P; Tamelander, Jerker; Wachenfeld, David; Wear, Stephanie

    2015-01-01

    Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local-scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio-economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience-Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press-type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse-type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo-Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on-the-ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on

  9. Mission Risk Reduction Regulatory Change Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scroggins, Sharon

    2007-01-01

    NASA Headquarters Environmental Management Division supports NASA's mission to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research by integrating environmental considerations into programs and projects early-on, thereby proactively reducing NASA's exposure to institutional, programmatic and operational risk. As part of this effort, NASA established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) as a resource for detecting, analyzing, and communicating environmental regulatory risks to the NASA stakeholder community. The RRAC PC focuses on detecting emerging environmental regulations and other operational change drivers that may pose risks to NASA programs and facilities, and effectively communicating the potential risks. For example, regulatory change may restrict how and where certain activities or operations may be conducted. Regulatory change can also directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage applications of certain materials. Regulatory change can result in significant adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities due to NASA's stringent performance requirements for materials and components related to human-rated space vehicles. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented a system for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the process utilized by the RRACPC to communicate regulatory change and the associated

  10. Risk Analysis Related to Quality Management Principles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vykydal, David; Halfarová, Petra; Nenadál, Jaroslav; Plura, Jiří; Hekelová, Edita

    2012-12-01

    Efficient and effective implementation of quality management principles asks for a responsible approach from top managers' perspectives. A study of the current state of affairs in Czech organizations discovers a lot of shortcomings in this field that can be changed to vary managerial risks. The article identifies and analyses some of them and gives short guidance for appropriate treatment. Text of the article reflects the authors' experience as well as knowledge obtained from the systematic analysis of industrial companies' environments.

  11. Management of Agricultural Weather Risks: traditional procedures and new management strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burgaz, F.

    2009-04-01

    Throughout history, agriculture has progressed as an outcome of farmers' efforts to design and apply adaptation strategies aiming to mitigate the impact of adverse meteorological phenomena on their farms' economy. The survival and sustainability of farmholdings, regardless of size or type of production, is directly related to their capacity to withstand the consequences of such phenomena and continue to yield a harvest year after year. While substantial differences can be identified in the intensity and frequency of the damage borne, depending on the country, region and type of production, no farm is exempt from the effects of uncontrollable risks. In this endeavour to mitigate such consequences and successfully manage natural risks, the first protective step must be taken by the farm itself, which must adopt measures that pursue more favourable crop development or a heightened ability to handle risks and their adverse effects. But when the damage inflicted is of an intensity that cannot be accommodated by the farmer, instruments must be deployed that spread or transfer risk to third parties, a process known as risk insurance. Experience shows that of the various such instruments in place, insurance constitutes the most appropriate risk management model and the one that has reached the highest levels of development and acceptance among farmers.

  12. Cultural resource management: The risk of compliance

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis, S.A.

    1994-02-01

    The statutory mandate for federal agencies to involve American Indians in the management of cultural resources may create a cultural risk for the people those statutes are intended to protect. A conceptual framework is given to help understand this dilemma. Factors that can exacerbate the severity of the adverse cultural impacts for tribal people are also examined. Policy recommendations are offered for reducing tensions among an the participants in the statutory process.

  13. Adaptive management and its role in managing Great Barrier Reef water quality.

    PubMed

    Bennett, J; Lawrence, P; Johnstone, R; Shaw, R

    2005-01-01

    Adaptive management is the pathway to effective conservation, use and management of Australia's coastal catchments and waterways. While the concepts of adaptive management are not new, applications involving both assessment and management responses are indeed limited at the national and regional scales. This paper outlines the components of a systematic framework for linking scientific knowledge, existing tools, planning approaches and participatory processes to achieve healthy regional partnerships between community, industry, government agencies and science providers to overcome institutional barriers and uncoordinated monitoring. The framework developed by the Coastal CRC (www.coastal.crc.org.au/amf/amf/_index.htm) is hierarchical in the way it displays information to allow associated frameworks to be integrated, and represents a construct in which processes, information, decision tools and outcomes are brought together in a structured and transparent way for adaptive catchment and coastal management. This paper proposes how an adaptive management approach could be used to benefit the implementation of the Reef Water Quality Protection Plan (RWQPP).

  14. Cyanobacterial toxins: risk management for health protection.

    PubMed

    Codd, Geoffrey A; Morrison, Louise F; Metcalf, James S

    2005-03-15

    This paper reviews the occurrence and properties of cyanobacterial toxins, with reference to the recognition and management of the human health risks which they may present. Mass populations of toxin-producing cyanobacteria in natural and controlled waterbodies include blooms and scums of planktonic species, and mats and biofilms of benthic species. Toxic cyanobacterial populations have been reported in freshwaters in over 45 countries, and in numerous brackish, coastal, and marine environments. The principal toxigenic genera are listed. Known sources of the families of cyanobacterial toxins (hepato-, neuro-, and cytotoxins, irritants, and gastrointestinal toxins) are briefly discussed. Key procedures in the risk management of cyanobacterial toxins and cells are reviewed, including derivations (where sufficient data are available) of tolerable daily intakes (TDIs) and guideline values (GVs) with reference to the toxins in drinking water, and guideline levels for toxigenic cyanobacteria in bathing waters. Uncertainties and some gaps in knowledge are also discussed, including the importance of exposure media (animal and plant foods), in addition to potable and recreational waters. Finally, we present an outline of steps to develop and implement risk management strategies for cyanobacterial cells and toxins in waterbodies, with recent applications and the integration of Hazard Assessment Critical Control Point (HACCP) principles. PMID:15737680

  15. Cyanobacterial toxins: risk management for health protection

    SciTech Connect

    Codd, Geoffrey A.; Morrison, Louise F.; Metcalf, James S

    2005-03-15

    This paper reviews the occurrence and properties of cyanobacterial toxins, with reference to the recognition and management of the human health risks which they may present. Mass populations of toxin-producing cyanobacteria in natural and controlled waterbodies include blooms and scums of planktonic species, and mats and biofilms of benthic species. Toxic cyanobacterial populations have been reported in freshwaters in over 45 countries, and in numerous brackish, coastal, and marine environments. The principal toxigenic genera are listed. Known sources of the families of cyanobacterial toxins (hepato-, neuro-, and cytotoxins, irritants, and gastrointestinal toxins) are briefly discussed. Key procedures in the risk management of cyanobacterial toxins and cells are reviewed, including derivations (where sufficient data are available) of tolerable daily intakes (TDIs) and guideline values (GVs) with reference to the toxins in drinking water, and guideline levels for toxigenic cyanobacteria in bathing waters. Uncertainties and some gaps in knowledge are also discussed, including the importance of exposure media (animal and plant foods), in addition to potable and recreational waters. Finally, we present an outline of steps to develop and implement risk management strategies for cyanobacterial cells and toxins in waterbodies, with recent applications and the integration of Hazard Assessment Critical Control Point (HACCP) principles.

  16. Desktop risk management and decision support

    SciTech Connect

    1997-07-01

    The world can be a risky place, and both seasoned petroleum veterans and relative newcomers know no industry exemplifies that better than oil and gas. For years, industry handled its inherent risk with diversification. In the past, {open_quotes}I`ll take part of your deal if you take part in mine{close_quotes} was an efficient way to control exposure in wells, fields and basins. Recently, more sophisticated methods of handling certain types of risks - generally financially oriented like commodity price or currency - have evolved that use financial-type tools such as futures or basis differential. However, the petroleum industry still struggles to quantify and manage its risk throughout the exploration and production chain.

  17. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  18. Bisphenol A and risk management ethics.

    PubMed

    Resnik, David B; Elliott, Kevin C

    2015-03-01

    It is widely recognized that endocrine disrupting compounds, such as Bisphenol A, pose challenges for traditional paradigms in toxicology, insofar as these substances appear to have a wider range of low-dose effects than previously recognized. These compounds also pose challenges for ethics and policymaking. When a chemical does not have significant low-dose effects, regulators can allow it to be introduced into commerce or the environment, provided that procedures and rules are in place to keep exposures below an acceptable level. This option allows society to maximize the benefits from the use of the chemical while minimizing risks to human health or the environment, and it represents a compromise between competing values. When it is not possible to establish acceptable exposure levels for chemicals that pose significant health or environmental risks, the most reasonable options for risk management may be to enact either partial or complete bans on their use. These options create greater moral conflict than other risk management strategies, leaving policymakers difficult choices between competing values.

  19. Ecological risk assessment benefits environmental management

    SciTech Connect

    Fairbrother, A.; Kapustka, L.A.; Williams, B.A.; Glicken, J.

    1994-12-31

    The ecological risk assessment process in its ideal form is an unbiased approach for assessing the probability of harm to the environment as a consequence of a given action. This information can then be combined with other societal values and biases in the management of such risks. However, as the process currently is understood, decision makers often are accused of manipulating information in order to generate decisions or achieve buy in from the public in support of a particular political agenda. A clear understanding of the nature of the risk management process can help define areas where information should be free from social or personal bias, and areas where values and judgments are critical. The authors do not propose to discuss the individual`s decision-making process, but rather to address the social process of risk communication and environmentally-related decision-making, identifying which parts of that process require bias-free, scientifically generated information about the consequences of various actions and which parts need an understanding of the social values which underlie the informed choices among those possible actions.

  20. Bisphenol A and Risk Management Ethics

    PubMed Central

    Resnik, David B.; Elliot, Kevin C.

    2013-01-01

    It is widely recognized that endocrine disrupting compounds, such as Bisphenol A, pose challenges for traditional paradigms in toxicology, insofar as these substances appear to have a wider range of low-dose effects than previously recognized. These compounds also pose challenges for ethics and policymaking. When a chemical does not have significant low-dose effects, regulators can allow it to be introduced into commerce or the environment, provided that procedures and rules are in place to keep exposures below an acceptable level. This option allows society to maximize the benefits from the use of the chemical while minimizing risks to human health or the environment, and it represents a compromise between competing values. When it is not possible to establish acceptable exposure levels for chemicals that pose significant health or environmental risks, the most reasonable options for risk management may be to enact either partial or complete bans on their use. These options create greater moral conflict than other risk management strategies, leaving policymakers difficult choices between competing values. PMID:24471646

  1. RISK MANAGEMENT EVALUATION FOR CONCENTRATED ANIMAL FEEDING OPERATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Risk Management Research Laboratory (NRMRL) developed a Risk Management Evaluation (RME) to provide information needed to help plan future research in the Laboratory dealing with the environmental impact of concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). Agriculture...

  2. Controlling Legal Risk for Effective Hospital Management

    PubMed Central

    Park, Hyun Jun; Cho, Duk Young; Park, Yong Sug; Kim, Sun Wook; Park, Jae-Hong

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To analyze the types of medical malpractice, medical errors, and medical disputes in a university hospital for the proposal of countermeasures that maximize the efficiency of hospital management, medical departments, and healthcare providers. Materials and Methods This study retrospectively reviewed and analyzed 55 closed civil lawsuits among 64 medical lawsuit cases carried out in Pusan National University Hospital from January 2000 to April 2013 using medical records, petitions, briefs, and data from the Medical Dispute Mediation Committee. Results Of 55 civil lawsuits, men were the main plaintiffs in 31 cases (56.4%). The average period from medical malpractice to malpractice proceeding was 16.5 months (range, 1 month to 6.4 years), and the average period from malpractice proceeding to the disposition of a lawsuit was 21.7 months (range, 1 month to 4 years and 11 months). Conclusions Hospitals can effectively manage their legal risks by implementing a systematic medical system, eliminating risk factors in administrative service, educating all hospital employees on preventative strategies, and improving customer service. Furthermore, efforts should be made to establish standard coping strategies to manage medical disputes and malpractice lawsuits, operate alternative dispute resolution methods including the Medical Dispute Mediation Committee, create a compliance support center, deploy a specialized workforce including improved legal services for employees, and specialize the management-level tasks of the hospital. PMID:27169130

  3. Adaptive Regulation of the Northern California Reservoir System for Water, Energy, and Environmental Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgakakos, A. P.; Kistenmacher, M.; Yao, H.; Georgakakos, K. P.

    2014-12-01

    The 2014 National Climate Assessment of the US Global Change Research Program emphasizes that water resources managers and planners in most US regions will have to cope with new risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities, and recommends the development of adaptive capacity to effectively respond to the new water resources planning and management challenges. In the face of these challenges, adaptive reservoir regulation is becoming all the more ncessary. Water resources management in Northern California relies on the coordinated operation of several multi-objective reservoirs on the Trinity, Sacramento, American, Feather, and San Joaquin Rivers. To be effective, reservoir regulation must be able to (a) account for forecast uncertainty; (b) assess changing tradeoffs among water uses and regions; and (c) adjust management policies as conditions change; and (d) evaluate the socio-economic and environmental benefits and risks of forecasts and policies for each region and for the system as a whole. The Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) prototype demonstration project operated in Northern California through the collaboration of several forecast and management agencies has shown that decision support systems (DSS) with these attributes add value to stakeholder decision processes compared to current, less flexible management practices. Key features of the INFORM DSS include: (a) dynamically downscaled operational forecasts and climate projections that maintain the spatio-temporal coherence of the downscaled land surface forcing fields within synoptic scales; (b) use of ensemble forecast methodologies for reservoir inflows; (c) assessment of relevant tradeoffs among water uses on regional and local scales; (d) development and evaluation of dynamic reservoir policies with explicit consideration of hydro-climatic forecast uncertainties; and (e) focus on stakeholder information needs.This article discusses the INFORM integrated design concept, underlying

  4. Hydrologic landscape units and adaptive management of intermountain wetlands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Custer, Stephen G.; Sojda, R.S.

    2006-01-01

    daptive management is often proposed to assist in the management of national wildlife refuges and allows the exploration of alternatives as well as the addition of ne w knowledge as it becomes available. The hydrological landscape unit can be a good foundation for such efforts. Red Rock Lakes National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) is in an intermountain basin dominated by vertical tectonics in the Northern Rocky Mountains. A geographic information system was used to define the boundaries for the hydrologic landscape units there. Units identified include alluvial fan, interfan, stream alluvi um and basin flat. Management alternatives can be informed by ex amination of processes that occu r on the units. For example, an ancient alluvial fan unit related to Red Rock Creek appear s to be isolated from stream flow today, with recharge dominated by precipitation and bedrock springs; while other alluvial fan units in the area have shallow ground water recharged from mountain streams and precipitation. The scale of hydrologic processes in interfan units differs from that in alluvial fan hydrologic landscape units. These differences are important when the refuge is evaluating habitat management activities. Hydrologic landscape units provide scientific unde rpinnings for the refuge’s comprehensive planning process. New geologic, hydrologic, and biologic knowledge can be integrated into the hydrologic landscape unit definition and improve adaptive management.

  5. NASA Risk Management Handbook. Version 1.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Benjamin, Allan; Everett, Christopher; Maggio, Gaspare; Stamatelatos, Michael; Youngblood, Robert; Guarro, Sergio; Rutledge, Peter; Sherrard, James; Smith, Curtis; Williams, Rodney

    2011-01-01

    to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular risk management issues that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when managing programs and projects in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced.

  6. From adaptive management to adjustive management: a pragmatic account of biodiversity values.

    PubMed

    Maris, Virginie; Béchet, Arnaud

    2010-08-01

    The conservation of biodiversity poses an exceptionally difficult problem in that it needs to be effective in a context of double uncertainty: scientific (i.e., how to conserve biodiversity) and normative (i.e., which biodiversity to conserve and why). Although adaptive management offers a promising approach to overcome scientific uncertainty, normative uncertainty is seldom tackled by conservation science. We expanded on the approach proposed by adaptive-management theorists by devising an integrative and iterative approach to conservation that encompasses both types of uncertainty. Inspired by environmental pragmatism, we suggest that moral values at stake in biodiversity conservation are plastic and that a plurality of individual normative positions can coexist and evolve. Moral values should thus be explored through an experimental process as additional parameters to be incorporated in the traditional adaptive-management approach. As such, moral values should also be monitored by environmental ethicists working side by side with scientists and managers on conservation projects. Acknowledging the diversity of moral values and integrating them in a process of collective deliberation will help overcome the normative uncertainty. We used Dewey's distinction between adaptation and adjustment to offer a new paradigm built around what we call adjustive management, which reflects both the uncertainty and the likely evolution of the moral values humans attribute to biodiversity. We illustrate how this paradigm relates to practical conservation decisions by exploring the case of the Sacred Ibis (Threskiornis aethiopicus), an alien species in France that is the target of an eradication plan undertaken with little regard for moral issues. We propose that a more satisfying result of efforts to control Sacred Ibis could have been reached by rerouting the traditional feedback loop of adaptive management to include a normative inquiry. This adjustive management approach now

  7. Adaptive forest management for drinking water protection under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koeck, R.; Hochbichler, E.

    2012-04-01

    Drinking water resources drawn from forested catchment areas are prominent for providing water supply on our planet. Despite the fact that source waters stemming from forested watersheds have generally lower water quality problems than those stemming from agriculturally used watersheds, it has to be guaranteed that the forest stands meet high standards regarding their water protection functionality. For fulfilling these, forest management concepts have to be applied, which are adaptive regarding the specific forest site conditions and also regarding climate change scenarios. In the past century forest management in the alpine area of Austria was mainly based on the cultivation of Norway spruce, by the way neglecting specific forest site conditions, what caused in many cases highly vulnerable mono-species forest stands. The GIS based forest hydrotope model (FoHyM) provides a framework for forest management, which defines the most crucial parameters in a spatial explicit form. FoHyM stratifies the spacious drinking water protection catchments into forest hydrotopes, being operational units for forest management. The primary information layer of FoHyM is the potential natural forest community, which reflects the specific forest site conditions regarding geology, soil types, elevation above sea level, exposition and inclination adequately and hence defines the specific forest hydrotopes. For each forest hydrotope, the adequate tree species composition and forest stand structure for drinking water protection functionality was deduced, based on the plant-sociological information base provided by FoHyM. The most important overall purpose for the related elaboration of adaptive forest management concepts and measures was the improvement of forest stand stability, which can be seen as the crucial parameter for drinking water protection. Only stable forest stands can protect the fragile soil and humus layers and hence prevent erosion process which could endanger the water

  8. 7 CFR 760.104 - Risk management purchase requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Risk management purchase requirements. 760.104 Section... Agricultural Disaster Assistance Programs § 760.104 Risk management purchase requirements. (a) To be eligible... available from the USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA)) obtained catastrophic coverage or better under...

  9. 12 CFR 615.5135 - Management of interest rate risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Management of interest rate risk. 615.5135... agricultural credit bank shall develop and implement an interest rate risk management program as set forth in subpart G of this part. The board of directors shall adopt an interest rate risk management section of...

  10. 7 CFR 760.104 - Risk management purchase requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk management purchase requirements. 760.104 Section... Agricultural Disaster Assistance Programs § 760.104 Risk management purchase requirements. (a) To be eligible... available from the USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA)) obtained catastrophic coverage or better under...

  11. 12 CFR 615.5135 - Management of interest rate risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Management of interest rate risk. 615.5135... agricultural credit bank shall develop and implement an interest rate risk management program as set forth in subpart G of this part. The board of directors shall adopt an interest rate risk management section of...

  12. 12 CFR 615.5135 - Management of interest rate risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Management of interest rate risk. 615.5135... agricultural credit bank shall develop and implement an interest rate risk management program as set forth in subpart G of this part. The board of directors shall adopt an interest rate risk management section of...

  13. 14 CFR 117.7 - Fatigue risk management system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Fatigue risk management system. 117.7... LIMITATIONS AND REST REQUIREMENTS: FLIGHTCREW MEMBERS (EFF. 1-4-14) § 117.7 Fatigue risk management system. (a... Fatigue Risk Management System that provides at least an equivalent level of safety against...

  14. 12 CFR 704.21 - Enterprise risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Enterprise risk management. 704.21 Section 704... CORPORATE CREDIT UNIONS § 704.21 Enterprise risk management. (a) A corporate credit union must develop and follow an enterprise risk management policy. (b) The board of directors of a corporate credit union...

  15. 12 CFR 615.5135 - Management of interest rate risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Management of interest rate risk. 615.5135... agricultural credit bank shall develop and implement an interest rate risk management program as set forth in subpart G of this part. The board of directors shall adopt an interest rate risk management section of...

  16. 7 CFR 760.104 - Risk management purchase requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Risk management purchase requirements. 760.104 Section... Agricultural Disaster Assistance Programs § 760.104 Risk management purchase requirements. (a) To be eligible... available from the USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA)) obtained catastrophic coverage or better under...

  17. 12 CFR 704.21 - Enterprise risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Enterprise risk management. 704.21 Section 704... CORPORATE CREDIT UNIONS § 704.21 Enterprise risk management. (a) A corporate credit union must develop and follow an enterprise risk management policy. (b) The board of directors of a corporate credit union...

  18. 7 CFR 760.104 - Risk management purchase requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Risk management purchase requirements. 760.104 Section... Agricultural Disaster Assistance Programs § 760.104 Risk management purchase requirements. (a) To be eligible... available from the USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA)) obtained catastrophic coverage or better under...

  19. 12 CFR 704.21 - Enterprise risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Enterprise risk management. 704.21 Section 704... CORPORATE CREDIT UNIONS § 704.21 Enterprise risk management. (a) A corporate credit union must develop and follow an enterprise risk management policy. (b) The board of directors of a corporate credit union...

  20. 7 CFR 760.104 - Risk management purchase requirements.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Risk management purchase requirements. 760.104 Section... Agricultural Disaster Assistance Programs § 760.104 Risk management purchase requirements. (a) To be eligible... available from the USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA)) obtained catastrophic coverage or better under...

  1. Risk assessment and risk management of noncriteria pollutants.

    PubMed

    Lee, S D

    1990-10-01

    Noncriteria air pollutants are synonymous with hazardous air pollutants (HAPs), air toxics or toxic air pollutants (TAPs). The term noncriteria pollutants refers to all air pollutants except for the criteria pollutants (SOx, PM, NOx, CO, O3, and Pb). Air toxics are pervasive in our environment worldwide in varying degrees. Uses of these chemicals are varied and numerous; their emissions are ubiquitous, and they include organic compounds such as chlorinated hydrocarbons, dioxins, aldehydes, polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons, and heavy metals such as chromium, nickel, cadmium, and mercury. There are more than 70,000 chemicals that are in use commercially in the United States, and we know relatively little about their ambient concentrations, persistence, transport and transformation as well as their effects on health and the environment, many of which take decades to emerge. The United States Environmental Protection Agency, under the authority of Section 112 of the Clean Air Act, is mandated to regulate any air pollutant which, in the Administrator's judgment, "causes, or contributes to, air pollution which may reasonably be anticipated to result in an increase in serious irreversible or incapacitating reversible illness." For such regulatory decision-making, EPA's Office of Health and Environmental Assessment (OHEA) provides scientific assessment of health effects for potentially hazardous air pollutants. In accordance with risk assessment guidelines developed by OHEA over the years, Health Assessment Documents (HADs) containing risk assessment information were prepared and were subjected to critical review and careful revision to produce Final Draft HADs which serve as scientific databases for regulatory decision-making by the Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards (OAQPS) in its risk management process. EPA developed databases such as the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) and the National Air Toxics Information Clearinghouse (NATICH) and a technical

  2. Evaluating mallard adaptive management models with time series

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conn, P.B.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    Wildlife practitioners concerned with midcontinent mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) management in the United States have instituted a system of adaptive harvest management (AHM) as an objective format for setting harvest regulations. Under the AHM paradigm, predictions from a set of models that reflect key uncertainties about processes underlying population dynamics are used in coordination with optimization software to determine an optimal set of harvest decisions. Managers use comparisons of the predictive abilities of these models to gauge the relative truth of different hypotheses about density-dependent recruitment and survival, with better-predicting models giving more weight to the determination of harvest regulations. We tested the effectiveness of this strategy by examining convergence rates of 'predictor' models when the true model for population dynamics was known a priori. We generated time series for cases when the a priori model was 1 of the predictor models as well as for several cases when the a priori model was not in the model set. We further examined the addition of different levels of uncertainty into the variance structure of predictor models, reflecting different levels of confidence about estimated parameters. We showed that in certain situations, the model-selection process favors a predictor model that incorporates the hypotheses of additive harvest mortality and weakly density-dependent recruitment, even when the model is not used to generate data. Higher levels of predictor model variance led to decreased rates of convergence to the model that generated the data, but model weight trajectories were in general more stable. We suggest that predictive models should incorporate all sources of uncertainty about estimated parameters, that the variance structure should be similar for all predictor models, and that models with different functional forms for population dynamics should be considered for inclusion in predictor model! sets. All of these

  3. Informativeness of the threshold adaptation and fatigue for assessment of the auditory health risk.

    PubMed

    Tzaneva, L

    1997-09-01

    The management and control of modern automated productions evidence the elevated role of the auditory system as one of the distant sensor communication systems. The present study informs about the auditory adaptation and fatigue at the end of the working shift of 385 operators at control boards in "Kremikovtzi" State Company. The results of the monitoring of the dynamic changes show significant changes, expressed in aggravation of the auditory fatigue manifestation by moderate to significant disturbance of the adaptation-recovery processes. The analysis established a significant positive correlation between the changes in auditory fatigue and the duration of service. The frequencies of the speech range are preserved for a long time. The elevated auditory fatigue is observed in the injured hearing band 4,000 Hz, followed by 6,000 Hz and continuous dissemination to the middle frequencies of the speech band-2,000 and 1,000 Hz. The results of the study of the adaptation-recovery processes are characterised by statistically significant reliability, single direction and reproducibility and can be applied as informative criteria for assessment of the auditory health risk.

  4. Knowledge of risk management strategies, and information and risk management preferences of women at increased risk for ovarian cancer.

    PubMed

    Tiller, K; Meiser, B; Gould, L; Tucker, K; Dudding, T; Franklin, J; Friedlander, M; Andrews, L

    2005-04-01

    Little research is available on the level of knowledge about ovarian cancer risk management options in women at increased risk for this disease. The study objectives were to evaluate this together with the information and ovarian cancer risk management preferences of high-risk women. One hundred and twenty-nine women were assessed after their attendance at one of six familial cancer clinics in relation to knowledge of surveillance and/or preventative strategies for reduction of ovarian cancer risk, preferences for particular strategies, and information preferences. Screening was selected by 57 (44%) women as the preferred risk management option. One hundred and five women (82%) indicated a wish for as much information as possible about ovarian cancer, including both good and bad outcomes and 114 (89%) reported a preference for sharing treatment decisions with their health professional. Participants' knowledge about ovarian cancer risk management options was significantly associated with educational levels (Z = -3.2, p=0.001) and whether or not ovarian cancer was included in the family history (Z = -2.3, p = 0.018). Findings from this present study indicate that women at increased risk of ovarian cancer who attend familial cancer clinics want as much information as possible about this disease and they want to be involved in the decision-making process. Women who reported a lower level of education (no post-school qualifications) may be most likely to benefit from additional educational strategies designed to supplement genetic counseling to improve their knowledge levels.

  5. Influences on Adaptive Planning to Reduce Flood Risks among Parishes in South Louisiana

    PubMed Central

    Paille, Mary; Reams, Margaret; Argote, Jennifer; Lam, Nina S.-N.; Kirby, Ryan

    2016-01-01

    Residents of south Louisiana face a range of increasing, climate-related flood exposure risks that could be reduced through local floodplain management and hazard mitigation planning. A major incentive for community planning to reduce exposure to flood risks is offered by the Community Rating System (CRS) of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The NFIP encourages local collective action by offering reduced flood insurance premiums for individual policy holders of communities where suggested risk-reducing measures have been implemented. This preliminary analysis examines the extent to which parishes (counties) in southern Louisiana have implemented the suggested policy actions and identifies key factors that account for variation in the implementation of the measures. More measures implemented results in higher CRS scores. Potential influences on scores include socioeconomic attributes of residents, government capacity, average elevation and past flood events. The results of multiple regression analysis indicate that higher CRS scores are associated most closely with higher median housing values. Furthermore, higher scores are found in parishes with more local municipalities that participate in the CRS program. The number of floods in the last five years and the revenue base of the parish does not appear to influence CRS scores. The results shed light on the conditions under which local adaptive planning to mitigate increasing flood risks is more likely to be implemented and offer insights for program administrators, researchers and community stakeholders. PMID:27330828

  6. Assessment of the Relationship Between Flexibility and Adaptive Capacity in Flood Management Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DiFrancesco, K.; Tullos, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    Discussions around adapting water management systems to future changes often state the need to increase system flexibility. Intuitively, a flexible, easily modifiable system seems desirable when faced with a wide range of uncertain, but plausible future conditions. Yet, despite the frequent use of the terms flexibility, very little work has examined what exactly it means to have a flexible water management system, what makes one system more flexible than another, or the extent to which flexibility increases adaptive capacity. This study applies a methodology for assessing the inherent flexibility of the structural and non-structural components of flood management systems using original flexibility metrics in the categories of: slack, intensity, connectivity, adjustability, and coordination. We use these metrics to assess the flexibility of three sub-systems within the Sacramento Valley flood management system in California, USA under current system conditions as well as with proposed management actions in place. We then assess the range of hydrologic conditions under which each sub-system can meet flood risk targets in order to determine whether more flexible systems are also more robust and able to perform over a wider range of hydrologic conditions. In doing so, we identify flexible characteristics of flood management systems that enhance the ability of the system to preform over a wide range of conditions making them better suited to adapt to an uncertain hydrologic future. We find that the flexibility characteristics that increase the range of conditions under which the system can meet performance goals varies depending on whether the region is considered urban, rural, or a small community. In some cases, a decrease in certain flexibility characteristics is associated with an increase in robustness, indicating that more flexibility is not always desirable. Future work will assess the transferability of these results to other regions and systems.

  7. [Dynamics of adaptation processes and morbidity risk for the popupation of the territory of industrial cities].

    PubMed

    Prusakov, V M; Prusakova, A V

    2014-01-01

    There was investigated the character of the adaptation processes in the population residing in conditions ofprolonged exposure to environmental pollution in the territory of the industrial cities of the Irkutsk region in order to identify the possible periodicity of their manifestations in the formation of the morbidity risk for the population of different age groups. Under conditions of prolonged exposure to air pollution and other adverse unfavorable factors of industrial cities in the population of all age groups long cyclic changes of adaptation processes in the body in the form of repeated 11-15-years cycles in which a period of relative destabilization of physiological functions with lowered resistance is replaced by the period with the state of elevated nonspecific resistance were established to be observed. Undulating changes of the dynamics of the relative risks of general morbidity should be considered in the assessment of the medical and environmental situation in the territory and making the managing decisions at the base on the data of public health monitoring.

  8. Ho Chi Minh City adaptation to increasing risk of coastal and fluvial floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scussolini, Paolo; Lasage, Ralph

    2016-04-01

    Coastal megacities in southeast Asia are a hotspot of vulnerability to floods. In such contexts, the combination of fast socio-economic development and of climate change impacts on precipitation and sea level generates concerns about the flood damage to people and assets. This work focuses on Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, for which we estimate the present and future direct risk from river and coastal floods. A model cascade is used that comprises the Saigon river basin and the urban network, plus the land-use-dependent damaging process. Changes in discharge for five return periods are simulated, enabling the probabilistic calculation of the expected annual economic damage to assets, for differnt scenarios of global emissions, local socio-economic growth, and land subsidence, up to year 2100. The implementation of a range of adaptation strategies is simulated, including building dykes, elevating, creating reservoirs, managing water and sediment upstream, flood-proofing, halting groundwater abstraction. Results are presented on 1) the relative weight of each future driver in determining the flood risk of Ho Chi Minh, and 2) the efficiency and feasibility of each adaptation strategy.

  9. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  10. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed Central

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a “gold standard” for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  11. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  12. Research on R&D Project Risk Management Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Xiaoyan; Cai, Chen; Song, Hao; Song, Juan

    R&D project is an exploratory high-risk investment activity and has potential management flexibility. In R&D project risk management process, it is hard to quantify risk with very little past information available. This paper introduces quality function deployment and real option in traditional project risk management process. Through waterfall decomposition mode, R&D project risk management process is constructed step by step; through real option, the managerial flexibility inherent in R&D project can be modeled. In the paper, first of all, according to the relation matrix between R&D project success factors and risk indexes, risk priority list can be obtained. Then, risk features of various stages are analyzed. Finally, real options are embedded into various stages of R&D project by the risk features. In order to effectively manage R&D risk in a dynamic cycle, the steps above should be carried out repeatedly.

  13. Gender, Race, and Risk: Intersectional Risk Management in the Sale of Sex Online.

    PubMed

    Moorman, Jessica D; Harrison, Kristen

    2016-09-01

    Sex worker experience of risk (e.g., physical violence or rape) is shaped by race, gender, and context. For web-based sex workers, experience of risk is comparatively minimal; what is unclear is how web-based sex workers manage risk and if online advertising plays a role in risk management. Building on intersectionality theory and research exploring risk management in sex work, we content-analyzed 600 escort advertisements from Backpage.com ( http://www.backpage.com ) to explore risk management in web-based sex work. To guide our research we asked: Do advertisements contain risk management messages? Does the use of risk management messaging differ by sex worker race or gender? Which groups have the highest overall use of risk management messages? Through a multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) we found that advertisements contained risk management messages and that uses of these phrases varied by race and gender. Blacks, women, and transgender women drove the use of risk management messages. Black and White transgender women had the highest overall use of these phrases. We conclude that risk management is an intersectional practice and that the use of risk management messages is a venue-specific manifestation of broader risk management priorities found in all venues where sex is sold. PMID:26488687

  14. Gender, Race, and Risk: Intersectional Risk Management in the Sale of Sex Online.

    PubMed

    Moorman, Jessica D; Harrison, Kristen

    2016-09-01

    Sex worker experience of risk (e.g., physical violence or rape) is shaped by race, gender, and context. For web-based sex workers, experience of risk is comparatively minimal; what is unclear is how web-based sex workers manage risk and if online advertising plays a role in risk management. Building on intersectionality theory and research exploring risk management in sex work, we content-analyzed 600 escort advertisements from Backpage.com ( http://www.backpage.com ) to explore risk management in web-based sex work. To guide our research we asked: Do advertisements contain risk management messages? Does the use of risk management messaging differ by sex worker race or gender? Which groups have the highest overall use of risk management messages? Through a multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) we found that advertisements contained risk management messages and that uses of these phrases varied by race and gender. Blacks, women, and transgender women drove the use of risk management messages. Black and White transgender women had the highest overall use of these phrases. We conclude that risk management is an intersectional practice and that the use of risk management messages is a venue-specific manifestation of broader risk management priorities found in all venues where sex is sold.

  15. Improving our legacy: Incorporation of adaptive management into state wildlife action plans

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fontaine, J.J.

    2011-01-01

    The loss of biodiversity is a mounting concern, but despite numerous attempts there are few large scale conservation efforts that have proven successful in reversing current declines. Given the challenge of biodiversity conservation, there is a need to develop strategic conservation plans that address species declines even with the inherent uncertainty in managing multiple species in complex environments. In 2002, the State Wildlife Grant program was initiated to fulfill this need, and while not explicitly outlined by Congress follows the fundamental premise of adaptive management, 'Learning by doing'. When action is necessary, but basic biological information and an understanding of appropriate management strategies are lacking, adaptive management enables managers to be proactive in spite of uncertainty. However, regardless of the strengths of adaptive management, the development of an effective adaptive management framework is challenging. In a review of 53 State Wildlife Action Plans, I found a keen awareness by planners that adaptive management was an effective method for addressing biodiversity conservation, but the development and incorporation of explicit adaptive management approaches within each plan remained elusive. Only ???25% of the plans included a framework for how adaptive management would be implemented at the project level within their state. There was, however, considerable support across plans for further development and implementation of adaptive management. By furthering the incorporation of adaptive management principles in conservation plans and explicitly outlining the decision making process, states will be poised to meet the pending challenges to biodiversity conservation. ?? 2010 .

  16. Risk management model in road transport systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakhapov, R. L.; Nikolaeva, R. V.; Gatiyatullin, M. H.; Makhmutov, M. M.

    2016-08-01

    The article presents the results of a study of road safety indicators that influence the development and operation of the transport system. Road safety is considered as a continuous process of risk management. Authors constructed a model that relates the social risks of a major road safety indicator - the level of motorization. The model gives a fairly accurate assessment of the level of social risk for any given level of motorization. Authors calculated the dependence of the level of socio-economic costs of accidents and injured people in them. The applicability of the concept of socio-economic damage is caused by the presence of a linear relationship between the natural and economic indicators damage from accidents. The optimization of social risk is reduced to finding the extremum of the objective function that characterizes the economic effect of the implementation of measures to improve safety. The calculations make it possible to maximize the net present value, depending on the costs of improving road safety, taking into account socio-economic damage caused by accidents. The proposed econometric models make it possible to quantify the efficiency of the transportation system, allow to simulate the change in road safety indicators.

  17. Management of Environmental Risks in Coastal Areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caprioli, M.; Trizzino, R.; Pagliarulo, R.; Scarano, M.; Mazzone, F.; Scognamiglio, A.

    2015-08-01

    The present work deals with the assessment and management of environmental risk conditions in a typical costal area of Southern Italy. This area, located in the Salento peninsula, is subject to recurrent widespread instability phenomena due to the presence of steep rocky cliffs. Along the coast there are numerous beach resorts that are very crowded in the summer season. The environmental hazard deriving from the possible rock falls is unacceptably high for the people safety. Moreover, the land-based mapping of the dangerous natural structures is very difficult and time and resources expending. In this context, we carried out an UAV survey along about 1 km of coast, near the towns of San Foca, Torre dell'Orso and Sant' Andrea ( Lecce, Southern Italy). The UAV platform was equipped with a photogrammetric measurement system that allowed us to obtain a mobile mapping of the fractured fronts of dangerous rocky cliffs. UAV-images data have been processed using dedicated software (Agisoft Photoscan). The total error obtained was of centimeter-order that is a very satisfactory result. The environmental information has been arranged in an ArcGIS platform in order to assess the risk levels. The possibility to repeat the survey at time intervals more or less close together depending on the measured levels of risk and to compare the output allows following the trend of the dangerous phenomena. In conclusion, for inaccessible locations of dangerous rocky bodies the UAV survey coupled with a GIS methodology proved to be a key engineering tool for the management of environmental risks.

  18. Risk management of liquefied natural gas installations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fedor, O. H.; Parsons, W. N.; Coutinho, J. De C.

    1976-01-01

    In connection with the construction of four major liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in New York City, the New York City Fire Commissioner has asked NASA for assistance. It was decided that the Kennedy Space Center should develop a risk management system (RMS) for the use of the New York Fire Department (NYFD). The RMS provides for a published set of safety regulations by the NYFD. A description of the RMS is presented as an example of an application of aerospace technology to a civilian sector, namely LNG facilities.

  19. Legal aspects of orthodontic practice: risk management concepts. Performing a risk management audit of your practice.

    PubMed

    Machen, D E

    1990-05-01

    In this and succeeding issues of the AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ORTHODONTICS AND DENTOFACIAL ORTHOPEDICS, factual risk management scenarios will be presented. These scenarios are based on composites of actual court cases that have been tried to verdict or decision. Valuable risk management lessons may be learned from careful analysis of the course of the events described. Please be advised that the standard of care determined in any case is specific for that jurisdiction and that set of facts as established by expert testimony for the prevailing party. Readers' comments may be addressed to Dr. Donald E. Machen, 5801 Beacon St., Pittsburgh, PA 15217.

  20. Risk management modeling and its application in maritime safety

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, Ting-Rong; Chen, Wei-Jiong; Zeng, Xiang-Kun

    2008-12-01

    Quantified risk assessment (QRA) needs mathematicization of risk theory. However, attention has been paid almost exclusively to applications of assessment methods, which has led to neglect of research into fundamental theories, such as the relationships among risk, safety, danger, and so on. In order to solve this problem, as a first step, fundamental theoretical relationships about risk and risk management were analyzed for this paper in the light of mathematics, and then illustrated with some charts. Second, man-machine-environment-management (MMEM) theory was introduced into risk theory to analyze some properties of risk. On the basis of this, a three-dimensional model of risk management was established that includes: a goal dimension; a management dimension; an operation dimension. This goal management operation (GMO) model was explained and then emphasis was laid on the discussion of the risk flowchart (operation dimension), which lays the groundwork for further study of risk management and qualitative and quantitative assessment. Next, the relationship between Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) and Risk Management was researched. This revealed that the FSA method, which the international maritime organization (IMO) is actively spreading, comes from Risk Management theory. Finally, conclusion were made about how to apply this risk management method to concrete fields efficiently and conveniently, as well as areas where further research is required.

  1. Adapting to a changing world: Implications for water management.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loucks, Daniel

    2010-05-01

    Everyone is aware that the world is changing, and that many of these changes will impact our water resource supplies and how they are used and managed. It's always a challenge to try to predict the future, especially the very uncertain distant future. But one thing is certain, the future environment our descendants will experience will differ from the economic, social, technological and natural conditions we experience today. Some aspects of the changes that are happening may not be under human control, but many are. And to the extent they are, we can influence that future. In this paper I attempt to speculate about a future some 40 to 50 years from now, and how water will need to be managed then. My goal is to motivate some thinking and discussion about how we as water managers can influence and prepare ourselves (or our successors) for that future. It will require collaboration among multiple disciplines to determine how best we as a profession can help society adapt to these changes, and this in turn will require all of us to learn how to work together more effectively than we do now. This theme fits in with the current interest in sustainability, for no matter how it is defined, sustainability makes us think about the long-term future. How do we develop and manage our natural and cultural resources in ways that benefit both us and future generations of people living on this earth? What will their needs and goals be? We don't know and that is the major challenge in deciding what decisions we might make today on their behalf. Here I attempt to identify the challenges and issues water managers could be addressing some 40 to 50 years from now, and what we in each of our disciplines, and together, can begin to do now to address them.

  2. Adaptive management: a paradigm for remediation of public facilities following a terrorist attack.

    PubMed

    Whicker, Jeffrey J; Janecky, David R; Doerr, Ted B

    2008-10-01

    Terrorist actions are aimed at maximizing harm (health, psychological, economical, and political) through the combined physical impacts of the act and fear. Immediate and effective response to a terrorist act is critical to limit human and environmental harm, effectively restore facility function, and maintain public confidence. Though there have been terrorist attacks in public facilities that we have learned from, overall our experiences in restoration of public facilities following a terrorist attack are limited. Restoration of public facilities following a release of a hazardous material is inherently far more complex than in industrial settings and has many unique technical, economic, social, and political challenges. For example, there may be a great need to quickly restore the facility to full operation and allow public access even though it was not designed for easy or rapid restoration, and critical information is needed for quantitative risk assessment and effective restoration must be anticipated to be incomplete and uncertain. Whereas present planning documents have substantial linearity in their organization, the "adaptive management" paradigm provides a constructive parallel paradigm for restoration of public facilities that anticipates and plans for uncertainty, inefficiencies, and stakeholder participation. Adaptive management grew out of the need to manage and restore natural resources in highly complex and changing environments with limited knowledge about causal relationships and responses to restoration actions. Similarities between natural resource management and restoration of a public facility after a terrorist attack suggest that integration of adaptive management principles explicitly into restoration processes will result in substantially enhanced and flexible responses necessary to meet the uncertainties of potential terrorist attacks.

  3. TWRS safety and technical integration risk management plan

    SciTech Connect

    Fordham, R.A.

    1996-03-12

    The objectives of the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Safety and Technical Integration (STI) programmatic risk management program are to assess, analyze, and handle risks associated with TWRS STI responsibilities and to communicate information about the actions being taken and the results to enable decision making. The objective of this TWRS STI Risk Management Plan is to communicate a consistent approach to risk management that will be used by the organization.

  4. Adaptive data management in the ARC Grid middleware

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cameron, D.; Gholami, A.; Karpenko, D.; Konstantinov, A.

    2011-12-01

    The Advanced Resource Connector (ARC) Grid middleware was designed almost 10 years ago, and has proven to be an attractive distributed computing solution and successful in adapting to new data management and storage technologies. However, with an ever-increasing user base and scale of resources to manage, along with the introduction of more advanced data transfer protocols, some limitations in the current architecture have become apparent. The simple first-in first-out approach to data transfer leads to bottlenecks in the system, as does the built-in assumption that all data is immediately available from remote data storage. We present an entirely new data management architecture for ARC which aims to alleviate these problems, by introducing a three-layer structure. The top layer accepts incoming requests for data transfer and directs them to the middle layer, which schedules individual transfers and negotiates with various intermediate catalog and storage systems until the physical file is ready to be transferred. The lower layer performs all operations which use large amounts of bandwidth, i.e. the physical data transfer. Using such a layered structure allows more efficient use of the available bandwidth as well as enabling late-binding of jobs to data transfer slots based on a priority system. Here we describe in full detail the design and implementation of the new system.

  5. Designing monitoring programs in an adaptive management context for regional multiple species conservation plans

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Atkinson, A.J.; Trenham, P.C.; Fisher, R.N.; Hathaway, S.A.; Johnson, B.S.; Torres, S.G.; Moore, Y.C.

    2004-01-01

    critical management uncertainties; and 3) implementing long-term monitoring and adaptive management. Ultimately, the success of regional conservation planning depends on the ability of monitoring programs to confront the challenges of adaptively managing and monitoring complex ecosystems and diverse arrays of sensitive species.

  6. 78 FR 5830 - Renewal of the Trinity River Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-01-28

    ... Office of the Secretary Renewal of the Trinity River Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Office of... consultation with the General Services Administration, has renewed the Trinity River Adaptive Management... to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity River restoration efforts....

  7. Deriving empirical benchmarks from existing monitoring datasets for rangeland adaptive management

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Under adaptive management, goals and decisions for managing rangeland resources are shaped by requirements like the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM’s) Land Health Standards, which specify desired conditions. Without formalized, quantitative benchmarks for triggering management actions, adaptive man...

  8. Land-based approach to evaluate sustainable land management and adaptive capacity of ecosystems/lands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kust, German; Andreeva, Olga

    2015-04-01

    A number of new concepts and paradigms appeared during last decades, such as sustainable land management (SLM), climate change (CC) adaptation, environmental services, ecosystem health, and others. All of these initiatives still not having the common scientific platform although some agreements in terminology were reached, schemes of links and feedback loops created, and some models developed. Nevertheless, in spite of all these scientific achievements, the land related issues are still not in the focus of CC adaptation and mitigation. The last did not grow much beyond the "greenhouse gases" (GHG) concept, which makes land degradation as the "forgotten side of climate change" The possible decision to integrate concepts of climate and desertification/land degradation could be consideration of the "GHG" approach providing global solution, and "land" approach providing local solution covering other "locally manifesting" issues of global importance (biodiversity conservation, food security, disasters and risks, etc.) to serve as a central concept among those. SLM concept is a land-based approach, which includes the concepts of both ecosystem-based approach (EbA) and community-based approach (CbA). SLM can serve as in integral CC adaptation strategy, being based on the statement "the more healthy and resilient the system is, the less vulnerable and more adaptive it will be to any external changes and forces, including climate" The biggest scientific issue is the methods to evaluate the SLM and results of the SLM investments. We suggest using the approach based on the understanding of the balance or equilibrium of the land and nature components as the major sign of the sustainable system. Prom this point of view it is easier to understand the state of the ecosystem stress, size of the "health", range of adaptive capacity, drivers of degradation and SLM nature, as well as the extended land use, and the concept of environmental land management as the improved SLM approach

  9. Managing the Risk of Command File Errors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila; Bryant, Larry W.

    2013-01-01

    Command File Error (CFE), as defined by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's (JPL) Mission Operations Assurance (MOA) is, regardless of the consequence on the spacecraft, either: an error in a command file sent to the spacecraft, an error in the process for developing and delivering a command file to the spacecraft, or the omission of a command file that should have been sent to the spacecraft. The risk consequence of a CFE can be mission ending and thus a concern to space exploration projects during their mission operations. A CFE during space mission operations is often the symptom of some kind of imbalance or inadequacy within the system that comprises the hardware & software used for command generation and the human experts involved in this endeavour. As we move into an era of enhanced collaboration with other NASA centers and commercial partners, these systems become more and more complex and hence it is all the more important to formally model and analyze CFEs in order to manage the risk of CFEs. Here we will provide a summary of the ongoing efforts at JPL in this area and also explain some more recent developments in the area of developing quantitative models for the purpose of managing CFE's.

  10. Risk management for assuring safe drinking water.

    PubMed

    Hrudey, Steve E; Hrudey, Elizabeth J; Pollard, Simon J T

    2006-12-01

    Millions of people die every year around the world from diarrheal diseases much of which is caused by contaminated drinking water. By contrast, drinking water safety is largely taken for granted by many citizens of affluent nations. The ability to drink water that is delivered into households without fear of becoming ill may be one of the key defining characteristics of developed nations in relation to the majority of the world. Yet there is well-documented evidence that disease outbreaks remain a risk that could be better managed and prevented even in affluent nations. A detailed retrospective analysis of more than 70 case studies of disease outbreaks in 15 affluent nations over the past 30 years provides the basis for much of our discussion [Hrudey, S.E. and Hrudey, E.J. Safe Drinking Water--Lessons from Recent Outbreaks in Affluent Nations. London, UK: IWA Publishing; 2004.]. The insights provided can assist in developing a better understanding within the water industry of the causes of drinking water disease outbreaks, so that more effective preventive measures can be adopted by water systems that are vulnerable. This preventive feature lies at the core of risk management for the provision of safe drinking water.

  11. Risk factors, health risks, and risk management for aircraft personnel and frequent flyers.

    PubMed

    Kim, Jeoum Nam; Lee, Byung Mu

    2007-01-01

    Health risks associated with long periods of time in flight are of concern to astronauts, crew members, and passengers. Many epidemiological studies showed that occupational and frequent flyers may be susceptible to ocular, cardiovascular, neurological, pulmonary, gastrointestinal, sensory, immunological, physiological, and even developmental disorders. In addition, the incidences of cancer and food poisoning are expected to be higher in such individuals. This article reviews health risks and risk factors associated with air travel, and discusses risk management strategies. To reduce adverse health risks, risk factors such as radiation, infection, stress, temperature, pressure, and circadian rhythm need to be avoided or reduced to levels that are as low as technologically achievable to protect flight personnel and passengers.

  12. Risk factors, health risks, and risk management for aircraft personnel and frequent flyers.

    PubMed

    Kim, Jeoum Nam; Lee, Byung Mu

    2007-01-01

    Health risks associated with long periods of time in flight are of concern to astronauts, crew members, and passengers. Many epidemiological studies showed that occupational and frequent flyers may be susceptible to ocular, cardiovascular, neurological, pulmonary, gastrointestinal, sensory, immunological, physiological, and even developmental disorders. In addition, the incidences of cancer and food poisoning are expected to be higher in such individuals. This article reviews health risks and risk factors associated with air travel, and discusses risk management strategies. To reduce adverse health risks, risk factors such as radiation, infection, stress, temperature, pressure, and circadian rhythm need to be avoided or reduced to levels that are as low as technologically achievable to protect flight personnel and passengers. PMID:17454553

  13. Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data.

    PubMed

    Muis, Sanne; Güneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Ward, Philip J

    2015-12-15

    An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale modeling of flood hazard and land change, which enables the probabilistic analysis of future trends in national-scale flood risk. We demonstrate its application to Indonesia. We develop 1000 spatially-explicit projections of urban expansion from 2000 to 2030 that account for uncertainty associated with population and economic growth projections, as well as uncertainty in where urban land change may occur. The projections show that the urban extent increases by 215%-357% (5th and 95th percentiles). Urban expansion is particularly rapid on Java, which accounts for 79% of the national increase. From 2000 to 2030, increases in exposure will elevate flood risk by, on average, 76% and 120% for river and coastal floods. While sea level rise will further increase the exposure-induced trend by 19%-37%, the response of river floods to climate change is highly uncertain. However, as urban expansion is the main driver of future risk, the implementation of adaptation measures is increasingly urgent, regardless of the wide uncertainty in climate projections. Using probabilistic urban projections, we show that spatial planning can be a very effective adaptation strategy. Our study emphasizes that global data can be used successfully for probabilistic risk assessment in data-scarce countries. PMID:26318682

  14. Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data.

    PubMed

    Muis, Sanne; Güneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Ward, Philip J

    2015-12-15

    An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale modeling of flood hazard and land change, which enables the probabilistic analysis of future trends in national-scale flood risk. We demonstrate its application to Indonesia. We develop 1000 spatially-explicit projections of urban expansion from 2000 to 2030 that account for uncertainty associated with population and economic growth projections, as well as uncertainty in where urban land change may occur. The projections show that the urban extent increases by 215%-357% (5th and 95th percentiles). Urban expansion is particularly rapid on Java, which accounts for 79% of the national increase. From 2000 to 2030, increases in exposure will elevate flood risk by, on average, 76% and 120% for river and coastal floods. While sea level rise will further increase the exposure-induced trend by 19%-37%, the response of river floods to climate change is highly uncertain. However, as urban expansion is the main driver of future risk, the implementation of adaptation measures is increasingly urgent, regardless of the wide uncertainty in climate projections. Using probabilistic urban projections, we show that spatial planning can be a very effective adaptation strategy. Our study emphasizes that global data can be used successfully for probabilistic risk assessment in data-scarce countries.

  15. [Occupational risk management: prognosis, causation and bioinformational technologies].

    PubMed

    Denisov, E I; Prokopenko, L V; Stepanov, I V

    2012-01-01

    Methodology of occupational risk management is outlined based on workers' health disorders forecast and causation (work-relatedness assessment). It originates from Labour Code of Russian Federation prescriptions and includes principles, methods and criteria of risk management and risk communication. The methodology is realized by means of bioinformational technologies as expert and analytical system in the form of interactive Web-based directory "occupational risk assessment" for practical use for occupational risk prevention.

  16. [Specifically adapted management of diabetics after myocardial infarct].

    PubMed

    Passa, P

    1998-06-13

    Approximately 20% of all patients hospitalized for myocardial infarction have diabetes. The percentage has been increasing constantly and mortality is significantly higher in these patients. The highest rate is observed in women. Despite continuing progress in patient management there has been no reduction in the overmortality after myocardial infarction in diabetic patients. The majority of these deaths are unwarranted and could be avoided if diabetic patients were given specifically adapted treatment after myocardial infarction. Unfortunately, as shown by the EURASPIRE study, there is a gap between intensive care unit discharge prescriptions and follow-up care. With the explosive "epidemic" of noninsulin-diabetes and population aging the number of patients with coronary artery disease and diabetes will rise in the future. Wouldn't it be reasonable to establish special cardiodiabetic units where such patients could benefit from close, and daily, cooperation between diabetologists and cardiologists? Such facilities could be expected to significantly reduce the overmortality in diabetic patients after myocardial infarction.

  17. ADGS-2100 Adaptive Display and Guidance System Window Manager Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whalen, Mike W.; Innis, John D.; Miller, Steven P.; Wagner, Lucas G.

    2006-01-01

    Recent advances in modeling languages have made it feasible to formally specify and analyze the behavior of large system components. Synchronous data flow languages, such as Lustre, SCR, and RSML-e are particularly well suited to this task, and commercial versions of these tools such as SCADE and Simulink are growing in popularity among designers of safety critical systems, largely due to their ability to automatically generate code from the models. At the same time, advances in formal analysis tools have made it practical to formally verify important properties of these models to ensure that design defects are identified and corrected early in the lifecycle. This report describes how these tools have been applied to the ADGS-2100 Adaptive Display and Guidance Window Manager being developed by Rockwell Collins Inc. This work demonstrates how formal methods can be easily and cost-efficiently used to remove defects early in the design cycle.

  18. Root developmental adaptation to Fe toxicity: Mechanisms and management.

    PubMed

    Li, Guangjie; Kronzucker, Herbert J; Shi, Weiming

    2016-01-01

    Iron (Fe) is an essential microelement but is highly toxic when in excess. To cope with Fe excess, plants have evolved complex adaptive responses that include morphological and physiological modifications. The highly dynamic adjustments in overall root system architecture (RSA) determine root plasticity and allow plants to efficiently adapt to environmental constraints. However, the effects of Fe excess on RSA are poorly understood. Recently, we showed that excess Fe treatment in Arabidopsis not only directly impairs primary root (PR) growth but also arrests lateral root (LR) formation by acting at the tip of the growing primary root. Such a change is believed to help RSA adjust and restrict excessive Fe absorption in the part of the rhizosphere subject to acute toxicity while maintaining the absorption of other nutrients in the less stressed components of the root system. We further showed that the suppression of PR growth and LR formation under excess Fe is alleviated by K(+) addition, providing useful insight into the effectiveness of nutrient management to improve RSA and alleviate Fe toxicity symptoms in the field.

  19. Risk management support through India Remote Sensing Satellites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aparna, N.; Ramani, A. V.; Nagaraja, R.

    2014-11-01

    Remote Sensing along with Geographical Information System (GIS) has been proven as a very important tools for the monitoring of the Earth resources and the detection of its temporal variations. A variety of operational National applications in the fields of Crop yield estimation , flood monitoring, forest fire detection, landslide and land cover variations were shown in the last 25 years using the Remote Sensing data. The technology has proven very useful for risk management like by mapping of flood inundated areas identifying of escape routes and for identifying the locations of temporary housing or a-posteriori evaluation of damaged areas etc. The demand and need for Remote Sensing satellite data for such applications has increased tremendously. This can be attributed to the technology adaptation and also the happening of disasters due to the global climate changes or the urbanization. However, the real-time utilization of remote sensing data for emergency situations is still a difficult task because of the lack of a dedicated system (constellation) of satellites providing a day-to-day revisit of any area on the globe. The need of the day is to provide satellite data with the shortest delay. Tasking the satellite to product dissemination to the user is to be done in few hours. Indian Remote Sensing satellites with a range of resolutions from 1 km to 1 m has been supporting disasters both National & International. In this paper, an attempt has been made to describe the expected performance and limitations of the Indian Remote Sensing Satellites available for risk management applications, as well as an analysis of future systems Cartosat-2D, 2E ,Resourcesat-2R &RISAT-1A. This paper also attempts to describe the criteria of satellite selection for programming for the purpose of risk management with a special emphasis on planning RISAT-1(SAR sensor).

  20. Regional Cumulative Effects Groundwater Management Associated with Large Resource Development Projects: Integrating Adaptive Management with Monitoring and Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beckers, J.; Fennell, J.; Scott, M.

    2011-12-01

    We will present a systematic approach to cumulative effects groundwater management predicated on an integration of traditional tools and the necessary intimate connection between modelling, monitoring and adaptive management, which includes an inventory and gap analysis of available data, consideration for system dynamics in the context of climate variability and change, an assessment of aquifer vulnerability, and consideration for potential future development and overall associated risk to groundwater resources and connected receptors. In our experience, a systematic approach to cumulative effects groundwater management is key to addressing complex challenges associated with large resource development projects, with effects of these projects to aquifer systems often occurring at regional scales and possibly enduring over long time horizons. The principal goal for the groundwater management framework is to manage groundwater resources in a sustainable manner and protect it from over-use. However, proper balances with economic and community objectives need to be taken into account, emphasizing the need for stakeholder engagement in the overall process. Through an understanding of inter-relationships between natural resource and other objectives, legislation, policies and programs across various sectors goals can be developed to achieve the best overall long-term benefits for society and the environment, while minimizing conflicts. The principal goal of monitoring is to evaluate past and current conditions and address data gaps. Long-term monitoring can also be used to improve the hydrogeologic conceptualization of a region. The role of numerical modelling is to quantify the understanding of groundwater flow systems in a region, address uncertainty in this understanding, to quantify potential regional cumulative impacts of current and future development, to provide recommendations for future monitoring locations and targets and for assessing the effectiveness of

  1. Adaptive Management of Bull Trout Populations in the Lemhi Basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterson, James T.; Tyre, Andrew J.; Converse, Sarah J.; Bogich, Tiffany L.; Miller, Damien; Post van der Burg, Max; Thomas, Carmen; Thompson, Ralph J.; Wood, Jeri; Brewer, Donna; Runge, Michael C.

    2011-01-01

    The bull trout Salvelinus confluentus, a stream-living salmonid distributed in drainages of the northwestern United States, is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act because of rangewide declines. One proposed recovery action is the reconnection of tributaries in the Lemhi Basin. Past water use policies in this core area disconnected headwater spawning sites from downstream habitat and have led to the loss of migratory life history forms. We developed an adaptive management framework to analyze which types of streams should be prioritized for reconnection under a proposed Habitat Conservation Plan. We developed a Stochastic Dynamic Program that identified optimal policies over time under four different assumptions about the nature of the migratory behavior and the effects of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis on subpopulations of bull trout. In general, given the current state of the system and the uncertainties about the dynamics, the optimal policy would be to connect streams that are currently occupied by bull trout. We also estimated the value of information as the difference between absolute certainty about which of our four assumptions were correct, and a model averaged optimization assuming no knowledge. Overall there is little to be gained by learning about the dynamics of the system in its current state, although in other parts of the state space reducing uncertainties about the system would be very valuable. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis; the optimal decision at the current state does not change even when parameter values are changed up to 75% of the baseline values. Overall, the exercise demonstrates that it is possible to apply adaptive management principles to threatened and endangered species, but logistical and data availability constraints make detailed analyses difficult.

  2. Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management

    SciTech Connect

    2015-12-01

    The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakage simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format. The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user’s manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.

  3. Evaluation of volcanic risk management in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachri, S.; Stöetter, J.; Sartohadi, J.; Setiawan, M. A.

    2012-04-01

    Merapi (Central Java Province) and Bromo (East Java Province) volcanoes have human-environmental systems with unique characteristics, thus causing specific consequences on their risk management. Various efforts have been carried out by many parties (institutional government, scientists, and non-governmental organizations) to reduce the risk in these areas. However, it is likely that most of the actions have been done for temporary and partial purposes, leading to overlapping work and finally to a non-integrated scheme of volcanic risk management. This study, therefore, aims to identify and evaluate actions of risk and disaster reduction in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes. To achieve this aims, a thorough literature review was carried out to identify earlier studies in both areas. Afterward, the basic concept of risk management cycle, consisting of risk assessment, risk reduction, event management and regeneration, is used to map those earlier studies and already implemented risk management actions in Merapi and Bromo. The results show that risk studies in Merapi have been developed predominantly on physical aspects of volcanic eruptions, i.e. models of lahar flows, hazard maps as well as other geophysical modeling. Furthermore, after the 2006 eruption of Merapi, research such on risk communication, social vulnerability, cultural vulnerability have appeared on the social side of risk management research. Apart from that, disaster risk management activities in the Bromo area were emphasizing on physical process and historical religious aspects. This overview of both study areas provides information on how risk studies have been used for managing the volcano disaster. This result confirms that most of earlier studies emphasize on the risk assessment and only few of them consider the risk reduction phase. Further investigation in this field work in the near future will accomplish the findings and contribute to formulate integrated volcanic risk management cycles for both

  4. The integration of ecological risk assessment and structured decision making into watershed management.

    PubMed

    Ohlson, Dan W; Serveiss, Victor B

    2007-01-01

    Watershed management processes continue to call for more science and improved decision making that take into account the full range of stakeholder perspectives. Increasingly, the core principles of ecological risk assessment (i.e., the development and use of assessment endpoints and conceptual models, conducting exposure and effects analysis) are being incorporated and adapted in innovative ways to meet the call for more science. Similarly, innovative approaches to adapting decision analysis tools and methods for incorporating stakeholder concerns in complex natural resource management decisions are being increasingly applied. Here, we present an example of the integration of ecological risk assessment with decision analysis in the development of a watershed management plan for the Greater Vancouver Water District in British Columbia, Canada. Assessment endpoints were developed, ecological inventory data were collected, and watershed models were developed to characterize the existing and future condition of 3 watersheds in terms of the potential risks to water quality. Stressors to water quality include sedimentation processes (landslides, streambank erosion) and forest disturbance (wildfire, major insect or disease outbreak). Three landscape-level risk management alternatives were developed to reflect different degrees of management intervention. Each alternative was evaluated under different scenarios and analyzed by explicitly examining value-based trade-offs among water quality, environmental, financial, and social endpoints. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate how the integration of ecological risk assessment and decision analysis approaches can support decision makers in watershed management. PMID:17283600

  5. Challenges in Incorporating Climate Change Adaptation into Integrated Water Resources Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirshen, P. H.; Cardwell, H.; Kartez, J.; Merrill, S.

    2011-12-01

    Over the last few decades, integrated water resources management (IWRM), under various names, has become the accepted philosophy for water management in the USA. While much is still to be learned about how to actually carry it out, implementation is slowly moving forward - spurred by both legislation and the demands of stakeholders. New challenges to IWRM have arisen because of climate change. Climate change has placed increased demands on the creativities of planners and engineers because they now must design systems that will function over decades of hydrologic uncertainties that dwarf any previous hydrologic or other uncertainties. Climate and socio-economic monitoring systems must also now be established to determine when the future climate has changed sufficiently to warrant undertaking adaptation. The requirements for taking some actions now and preserving options for future actions as well as the increased risk of social inequities in climate change impacts and adaptation are challenging experts in stakeholder participation. To meet these challenges, an integrated methodology is essential that builds upon scenario analysis, risk assessment, statistical decision theory, participatory planning, and consensus building. This integration will create cross-disciplinary boundaries for these disciplines to overcome.

  6. Use of documentary sources on past flood events for flood risk management and land planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cœur, Denis; Lang, Michel

    2008-09-01

    The knowledge of past catastrophic events can improve flood risk mitigation policy, with a better awareness against risk. As such historical information is usually available in Europe for the past five centuries, historians are able to understand how past society dealt with flood risk, and hydrologists can include information on past floods into an adapted probabilistic framework. In France, Flood Risk Mitigation Maps are based either on the largest historical known flood event or on the 100-year flood event if it is greater. Two actions can be suggested in terms of promoting the use of historical information for flood risk management: (1) the development of a regional flood data base, with both historical and current data, in order to get a good feedback on recent events and to improve the flood risk education and awareness; (2) the commitment to keep a persistent/perennial management of a reference network of hydrometeorological observations for climate change studies.

  7. Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Approach to Enterprise Risk Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauder, Stephen P.

    2014-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Division has implemented an innovative approach to Enterprise Risk Management under a unique governance structure and streamlined integration model. ESD's mission is to design and build the capability to extend human existence to deep space. The Enterprise consists of three Programs: Space Launch System (SLS), Orion, and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). The SLS is a rocket and launch system that will be capable of powering humans, habitats, and support systems to deep space. Orion will be the first spacecraft in history capable of taking humans to multiple destinations within deep space. GSDO is modernizing Kennedy's spaceport to launch spacecraft built and designed by both NASA and private industry. ESD's approach to Enterprise Risk Management is commensurate with affordability and a streamlined management philosophy. ESD Enterprise Risk Management leverages off of the primary mechanisms for integration within the Enterprise. The Enterprise integration approach emphasizes delegation of authority to manage and execute the majority of cross-program activities and products to the individual Programs, while maintaining the overall responsibility for all cross-program activities at the Division. The intent of the ESD Enterprise Risk Management approach is to improve risk communication, to avoid replication and/or contradictory strategies, and to minimize overhead process burden. This is accomplished by the facilitation and integration of risk information within ESD. The ESD Division risks, Orion risks, SLS risks, and GSDO risks are owned and managed by the applicable Program. When the Programs have shared risks with multiple consequences, they are jointly owned and managed. When a risk is associated with the integrated system that involves more than one Program in condition, consequence, or mitigation plan, it is considered an Exploration Systems Integration

  8. Risk Management for Sodium Fast Reactors.

    SciTech Connect

    Denman, Matthew R.; Groth, Katrina; Cardoni, Jeffrey N.; Wheeler, Timothy A.

    2015-01-01

    Accident management is an important component to maintaining risk at acceptable levels for all complex systems, such as nuclear power plants. With the introduction of self - correcting, or inherently safe, reactor designs the focus has shifted from management by operators to allowing the syste m's design to manage the accident. While inherently and passively safe designs are laudable, extreme boundary conditions can interfere with the design attributes which facilitate inherent safety , thus resulting in unanticipated and undesirable end states. This report examines an inherently safe and small sodium fast reactor experiencing a beyond design basis seismic event with the intend of exploring two issues : (1) can human intervention either improve or worsen the potential end states and (2) can a Bayes ian Network be constructed to infer the state of the reactor to inform (1). ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author s would like to acknowledge the U.S. Department of E nergy's Office of Nuclear Energy for funding this research through Work Package SR - 14SN100303 under the Advanced Reactor Concepts program. The authors also acknowledge the PRA teams at A rgonne N ational L aborator y , O ak R idge N ational L aborator y , and I daho N ational L aborator y for their continue d contributions to the advanced reactor PRA mission area.

  9. Suicide risk assessment and suicide risk formulation: essential components of the therapeutic risk management model.

    PubMed

    Silverman, Morton M

    2014-09-01

    Suicide and other suicidal behaviors are often associated with psychiatric disorders and dysfunctions. Therefore, psychiatrists have significant opportunities to identify at-risk individuals and offer treatment to reduce that risk. Although a suicide risk assessment is a core competency requirement, many clinical psychiatrists lack the requisite training and skills to appropriately assess for suicide risk. Moreover, the standard of care requires psychiatrists to foresee the possibility that a patient might engage in suicidal behavior, hence to conduct a suicide risk formulation sufficient to guide triage and treatment planning. Based on data collected via a suicide risk assessment, a suicide risk formulation is a process whereby the psychiatrist forms a judgment about a patient's foreseeable risk of suicidal behavior in order to inform triage decisions, safety and treatment planning, and interventions to reduce risk. This paper addresses the components of this process in the context of the model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient developed at the Veterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) 19 Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center by Wortzel et al.

  10. 48 CFR 1815.203-72 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Risk management. 1815.203... Proposals and Information 1815.203-72 Risk management. In all RFPs and RFOs for supplies or services for... discuss risk factors and issues throughout the proposal where they are relevant, and describe...

  11. Step 7: Choose the "Best" Risk Management Alternative

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The ultimate purpose of the SRM tactical phase is to choose how to manage risk. Prior to this stage, we determined the sources of risk, identified the relevant management actions and estimated the likelihood of all known outcomes. Next, we combine this information with your personal risk preference...

  12. Risk taking and effective R&D management.

    PubMed

    Banholzer, William F; Vosejpka, Laura J

    2011-01-01

    Several key strategies can be used to manage the risk associated with innovation to create maximum value. These include balancing the timing of investments versus cash flows, management of fads, prioritization across the company, savvy portfolio management, and a system of metrics that measure real success. Successful R&D managers will do whatever is necessary to manage the risks associated with an R&D program and stick to their long-term strategy.

  13. Adaptive management of the Great Barrier Reef and the Grand Canyon world heritage areas.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Terence P; Gunderson, Lance H; Folke, Carl; Baird, Andrew H; Bellwood, David; Berkes, Fikret; Crona, Beatrice; Helfgott, Ariella; Leslie, Heather; Norberg, Jon; Nyström, Magnus; Olsson, Per; Osterblom, Henrik; Scheffer, Marten; Schuttenberg, Heidi; Steneck, Robert S; Tengö, Maria; Troell, Max; Walker, Brian; Wilson, James; Worm, Boris

    2007-11-01

    Conventional perceptions of the interactions between people and their environment are rapidly transforming. Old paradigms that view humans as separate from nature, natural resources as inexhaustible or endlessly substitutable, and the world as stable, predictable, and in balance are no longer tenable. New conceptual frameworks are rapidly emerging based on an adaptive approach that focuses on learning and flexible management in a dynamic social-ecological landscape. Using two iconic World Heritage Areas as case studies (the Great Barrier Reef and the Grand Canyon) we outline how an improved integration of the scientific and social aspects of natural resource management can guide the evolution of multiscale systems of governance that confront and cope with uncertainty, risk, and change in an increasingly human-dominated world.

  14. Adaptive management of the Great Barrier Reef and the Grand Canyon world heritage areas.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Terence P; Gunderson, Lance H; Folke, Carl; Baird, Andrew H; Bellwood, David; Berkes, Fikret; Crona, Beatrice; Helfgott, Ariella; Leslie, Heather; Norberg, Jon; Nyström, Magnus; Olsson, Per; Osterblom, Henrik; Scheffer, Marten; Schuttenberg, Heidi; Steneck, Robert S; Tengö, Maria; Troell, Max; Walker, Brian; Wilson, James; Worm, Boris

    2007-11-01

    Conventional perceptions of the interactions between people and their environment are rapidly transforming. Old paradigms that view humans as separate from nature, natural resources as inexhaustible or endlessly substitutable, and the world as stable, predictable, and in balance are no longer tenable. New conceptual frameworks are rapidly emerging based on an adaptive approach that focuses on learning and flexible management in a dynamic social-ecological landscape. Using two iconic World Heritage Areas as case studies (the Great Barrier Reef and the Grand Canyon) we outline how an improved integration of the scientific and social aspects of natural resource management can guide the evolution of multiscale systems of governance that confront and cope with uncertainty, risk, and change in an increasingly human-dominated world. PMID:18074897

  15. Consumer responses to communication about food risk management.

    PubMed

    van Dijk, Heleen; Houghton, Julie; van Kleef, Ellen; van der Lans, Ivo; Rowe, Gene; Frewer, Lynn

    2008-01-01

    Recent emphasis within policy circles has been on transparent communication with consumers about food risk management decisions and practices. As a consequence, it is important to develop best practice regarding communication with the public about how food risks are managed. In the current study, the provision of information about regulatory enforcement, proactive risk management, scientific uncertainty and risk variability were manipulated in an experiment designed to examine their impact on consumer perceptions of food risk management quality. In order to compare consumer reactions across different cases, three food hazards were selected (mycotoxins on organically grown food, pesticide residues, and a genetically modified potato). Data were collected from representative samples of consumers in Germany, Greece, Norway and the UK. Scores on the "perceived food risk management quality" scale were subjected to a repeated-measures mixed linear model. Analysis points to a number of important findings, including the existence of cultural variation regarding the impact of risk communication strategies-something which has obvious implications for pan-European risk communication approaches. For example, while communication of uncertainty had a positive impact in Germany, it had a negative impact in the UK and Norway. Results also indicate that food risk managers should inform the public about enforcement of safety laws when communicating scientific uncertainty associated with risks. This has implications for the coordination of risk communication strategies between risk assessment and risk management organizations.

  16. Resource Management for Real-Time Adaptive Agents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Welch, Lonnie; Chelberg, David; Pfarr, Barbara; Fleeman, David; Parrott, David; Tan, Zhen-Yu; Jain, Shikha; Drews, Frank; Bruggeman, Carl; Shuler, Chris

    2003-01-01

    Increased autonomy and automation in onboard flight systems offer numerous potential benefits, including cost reduction and greater flexibility. The existence of generic mechanisms for automation is critical for handling unanticipated science events and anomalies where limitations in traditional control software with fixed, predetermined algorithms can mean loss of science data and missed opportunities for observing important terrestrial events. We have developed such a mechanism by adding a Hierarchical Agent-based ReaLTime technology (HART) extension to our Dynamic Resource Management (DRM) middleware. Traditional DRM provides mechanisms to monitor the realtime performance of distributed applications and to move applications among processors to improve real-time performance. In the HART project we have designed and implemented a performance adaptation mechanism to improve reaktime performance. To use this mechanism, applications are developed that can run at various levels of quality. The DRM can choose a setting for the quality level of an application dynamically at run-time in order to manage satellite resource usage more effectively. A groundbased prototype of a satellite system that captures and processes images has also been developed as part of this project to be used as a benchmark for evaluating the resource management framework A significant enhancement of this generic mission-independent framework allows scientists to specify the utility, or "scientific benefit," of science observations under various conditions like cloud cover and compression method. The resource manager then uses these benefit tables to determine in redtime how to set the quality levels for applications to maximize overall system utility as defined by the scientists running the mission. We also show how maintenance functions llke health and safety data can be integrated into the utility framework. Once thls framework has been certified for missions and successfully flight tested it

  17. Risk Management and Crisis Response: Are You Prepared?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schirick, Ed

    2002-01-01

    How a camp responds to a crisis may determine whether it can survive financially. Effective risk management requires total commitment from ownership and management, and staff involvement. Steps in formulating a risk management plan include identifying all potential crises and their frequency and severity potential, developing responses,…

  18. Training Manual for Human Service Risk Managers. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Frank W.; And Others

    This manual is designed to educate human service agency management personnel involved in transportation about basic risk management principles and insurance issues. Chapter I illustrates the liability factors that create the insurance and risk management needs. Both legal and humanitarian obligations of human service agencies involved in…

  19. 76 FR 23646 - Financial Management Policies-Interest Rate Risk

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-04-27

    ... Office of Thrift Supervision Financial Management Policies--Interest Rate Risk AGENCY: Office of Thrift... following information collection. Title of Proposal: Financial Management Policies--Interest Rate Risk. OMB... collection request (ICR) described below has been submitted to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)...

  20. 76 FR 9870 - Financial Management Policies-Interest Rate Risk

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-02-22

    ... Office of Thrift Supervision Financial Management Policies--Interest Rate Risk AGENCY: Office of Thrift... of Proposal: Financial Management Policies--Interest Rate Risk OMB Number: 1550-0094 Form Number: N/A... below to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review, as required by the Paperwork...

  1. 48 CFR 39.102 - Management of risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... are not limited to: prudent project management; use of modular contracting; thorough acquisition... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Management of risk. 39.102... CONTRACTING ACQUISITION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY General 39.102 Management of risk. (a) Prior to...

  2. 48 CFR 39.102 - Management of risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... are not limited to: prudent project management; use of modular contracting; thorough acquisition... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Management of risk. 39.102... CONTRACTING ACQUISITION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY General 39.102 Management of risk. (a) Prior to...

  3. 48 CFR 39.102 - Management of risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... are not limited to: prudent project management; use of modular contracting; thorough acquisition... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Management of risk. 39.102... CONTRACTING ACQUISITION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY General 39.102 Management of risk. (a) Prior to...

  4. 48 CFR 39.102 - Management of risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... are not limited to: prudent project management; use of modular contracting; thorough acquisition... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Management of risk. 39.102... CONTRACTING ACQUISITION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY General 39.102 Management of risk. (a) Prior to...

  5. 48 CFR 39.102 - Management of risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... are not limited to: prudent project management; use of modular contracting; thorough acquisition... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Management of risk. 39.102... CONTRACTING ACQUISITION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY General 39.102 Management of risk. (a) Prior to...

  6. Integration of Risk Management Techniques into Outdoor Adventure Program Design.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bruner, Eric V.

    This paper is designed to acquaint the outdoor professional with the risk management decision making process required for the operation and management of outdoor adventure activities. The document examines the programming implications of fear in adventure activities; the risk management process in adventure programming; a definition of an…

  7. Active adaptive management for reintroduction of an animal population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, Michael C.

    2013-01-01

    Captive animals are frequently reintroduced to the wild in the face of uncertainty, but that uncertainty can often be reduced over the course of the reintroduction effort, providing the opportunity for adaptive management. One common uncertainty in reintroductions is the short-term survival rate of released adults (a release cost), an important factor because it can affect whether releasing adults or juveniles is better. Information about this rate can improve the success of the reintroduction program, but does the expected gain offset the costs of obtaining the information? I explored this question for reintroduction of the griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus) by framing the management question as a belief Markov decision process, characterizing uncertainty about release cost with 2 information state variables, and finding the solution using stochastic dynamic programming. For a reintroduction program of fixed length (e.g., 5 years of releases), the optimal policy in the final release year resembles the deterministic solution: release either all adults or all juveniles depending on whether the point estimate for the survival rate in question is above or below a specific threshold. But the optimal policy in the earlier release years 1) includes release of a mixture of juveniles and adults under some circumstances, and 2) recommends release of adults even when the point estimate of survival is much less than the deterministic threshold. These results show that in an iterated decision setting, the optimal decision in early years can be quite different from that in later years because of the value of learning. 

  8. Theoretical models of adaptive energy management in small wintering birds.

    PubMed

    Brodin, Anders

    2007-10-29

    Many small passerines are resident in forests with very cold winters. Considering their size and the adverse conditions, this is a remarkable feat that requires optimal energy management in several respects, for example regulation of body fat reserves, food hoarding and night-time hypothermia. Besides their beneficial effect on survival, these behaviours also entail various costs. The scenario is complex with many potentially important factors, and this has made 'the little bird in winter' a popular topic for theoretic modellers. Many predictions could have been made intuitively, but models have been especially important when many factors interact. Predictions that hardly could have been made without models include: (i) the minimum mortality occurs at the fat level where the marginal values of starvation risk and predation risk are equal; (ii) starvation risk may also decrease when food requirement increases; (iii) mortality from starvation may correlate positively with fat reserves; (iv) the existence of food stores can increase fitness substantially even if the food is not eaten; (v) environmental changes may induce increases or decreases in the level of reserves depending on whether changes are temporary or permanent; and (vi) hoarding can also evolve under seemingly group-selectionistic conditions.

  9. The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program: An experiment in science-based resource management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    kaplinski, m

    2001-12-01

    In 1996, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management (GCDAMP) program was established to provide input on Glen Canyon Dam operations and their affect on the Colorado Ecosystem in Grand Canyon. The GCDAMP is a bold experiment in federal resource management that features a governing partnership with all relevant stakeholders sitting at the same table. It is a complicated, difficult process where stakeholder-derived management actions must balance resource protection with water and power delivery compacts, the Endangered Species Act, the National Historical Preservation Act, the Grand Canyon Protection Act, National Park Service Policy, and other stakeholder concerns. The program consists of four entities: the Adaptive Management Workgroup (AMWG), the Technical Workgroup (TWG), the Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center (GCMRC), and independent review panels. The AMWG and TWG are federal advisory committees that consists of federal and state resource managers, Native American tribes, power, environmental and recreation interests. The AMWG is develops, evaluates and recommends alternative dam operations to the Secretary. The TWG translates AMWG policy and goals into management objectives and information needs, provides questions that serve as the basis for long-term monitoring and research activities, interprets research results from the GCMRC, and prepares reports as required for the AMWG. The GCMRC is an independent science center that is responsible for all GCDAMP monitoring and research activities. The GCMRC utilizes proposal requests with external peer review and an in-house staff that directs and synthesizes monitoring and research results. The GCMRC meets regularly with the TWG and AMWG and provides scientific information on the consequences of GCDAMP actions. Independent review panels consist of external peer review panels that provide reviews of scientific activities and the program in general, technical advice to the GCMRC, TWG and AMWG, and play a critical

  10. Marine and Hydrokinetic Technology Development Risk Management Framework

    SciTech Connect

    Snowberg, David; Weber, Jochem

    2015-09-01

    Over the past decade, the global marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) industry has suffered a number of serious technological and commercial setbacks. To help reduce the risks of industry failures and advance the development of new technologies, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed an MHK Risk Management Framework. By addressing uncertainties, the MHK Risk Management Framework increases the likelihood of successful development of an MHK technology. It covers projects of any technical readiness level (TRL) or technical performance level (TPL) and all risk types (e.g. technological risk, regulatory risk, commercial risk) over the development cycle. This framework is intended for the development and deployment of a single MHK technology—not for multiple device deployments within a plant. This risk framework is intended to meet DOE’s risk management expectations for the MHK technology research and development efforts of the Water Power Program (see Appendix A). It also provides an overview of other relevant risk management tools and documentation.1 This framework emphasizes design and risk reviews as formal gates to ensure risks are managed throughout the technology development cycle. Section 1 presents the recommended technology development cycle, Sections 2 and 3 present tools to assess the TRL and TPL of the project, respectively. Section 4 presents a risk management process with design and risk reviews for actively managing risk within the project, and Section 5 presents a detailed description of a risk registry to collect the risk management information into one living document. Section 6 presents recommendations for collecting and using lessons learned throughout the development process.

  11. Reviewing the economic efficiency of disaster risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mechler, Reinhard

    2013-04-01

    There is a lot of rhetoric suggesting that disaster risk management (DRM) pays, yet surprisingly little in the way of hard facts. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is one major tool that can provide quantitative information about the prioritization of disaster risk management (DRM) (and climate adaptation) based on economic principles. Yet, on a global scale, there has been surprisingly little robust evidence on the economic efficiency and benefits of risk management measures. This review shows that for the limited evidence reported the economic case for DRM across a range of hazards is strong and that the benefits of investing in DRM outweigh the costs of doing so, on average, by about four times the cost in terms of avoided and reduced losses. Most studies using a CBA approach focus on structural DRM and most information has been made available on physical flood prevention. There have been some limited studies on preparedness and risk financing. The global evidence base is limited and estimates appear not very solid, and overall, in line with the conclusion of the recent IPCC SREX report, there is limited evidence and medium agreement across the literature. Some of the factors behind the limited robustness are inherent to CBA more widely: these challenges comprise the inability to price intangibles, evaluating strategies rather than single projects, difficulties in assessing softer rather than infrastructure-related options, choices regarding a proper discount rate, lack of accounting for the distribution of benefits and costs and difficulties with assessing nonmarket values such as those related to health, the environment, or public goods. Although techniques exist to address some of these challenges, they are not very likely to easily go away. Other challenges associated specifically with DRM, such as the need and difficulty to undertake risk -based analysis can be overcome, and there have been manuals and reports providing a way forward. In an age of austerity, cost

  12. Risk management frameworks: supporting the next generation of Murray-Darling Basin water sharing plans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Podger, G. M.; Cuddy, S. M.; Peeters, L.; Smith, T.; Bark, R. H.; Black, D. C.; Wallbrink, P.

    2014-09-01

    Water jurisdictions in Australia are required to prepare and implement water resource plans. In developing these plans the common goal is realising the best possible use of the water resources - maximising outcomes while minimising negative impacts. This requires managing the risks associated with assessing and balancing cultural, industrial, agricultural, social and environmental demands for water within a competitive and resource-limited environment. Recognising this, conformance to international risk management principles (ISO 31000:2009) have been embedded within the Murray-Darling Basin Plan. Yet, to date, there has been little strategic investment by water jurisdictions in bridging the gap between principle and practice. The ISO 31000 principles and the risk management framework that embodies them align well with an adaptive management paradigm within which to conduct water resource planning. They also provide an integrative framework for the development of workflows that link risk analysis with risk evaluation and mitigation (adaptation) scenarios, providing a transparent, repeatable and robust platform. This study, through a demonstration use case and a series of workflows, demonstrates to policy makers how these principles can be used to support the development of the next generation of water sharing plans in 2019. The workflows consider the uncertainty associated with climate and flow inputs, and model parameters on irrigation and hydropower production, meeting environmental flow objectives and recreational use of the water resource. The results provide insights to the risks associated with meeting a range of different objectives.

  13. Experimental climate information services in support of risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webb, R. S.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Davidson, M. A.; Shea, E. E.; Nierenberg, C.; Dole, R. M.

    2009-12-01

    Climate variability and change impact national and local economies and environments. Developing and communicating climate and climate impacts information to inform decision making requires an understanding of context, societal objectives, and identification of factors important to the management of risk. Information sensitive to changing baselines or extremes is a critical emergent need. Meeting this need requires timely production and delivery of useful climate data, information and knowledge within familiar pathways. We identify key attributes for a climate service , and the network and infrastructure to develop and coordinate the resulting services based on lessons learned in experimental implementations of climate services. "Service-type" activities already exist in many settings within federal, state, academic, and private sectors. The challenge for a climate service is to find effective implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting user needs). These strategies include upfront infrastructure investments, learning from event to event, coordinated innovation and diffusion, and highlighting common adaptation interests. Common to these strategies is the production of reliable and accessible data, analyses of emergent conditions and needs, and deliberative processes to identify appropriate entry points and uses for improved knowledge. Experimental climate services show that the development of well-structured paths among observations, projections, risk assessments and usable information requires sustained participation in “knowledge management systems” for early warning across temporal and spatial scales. Central to these systems is a collaborative framework between research and management to ensure anticipatory coordination between decision makers and information providers, allowing for emerging research findings and their attendant uncertainties to be considered. Early warnings in this context are not simply forecasts or

  14. Decision Making and Risk Management in Adventure Sports Coaching

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Collins, Loel; Collins, Dave

    2013-01-01

    Adventure sport coaches practice in environments that are dynamic and high in risk, both perceived and actual. The inherent risks associated with these activities, individuals' responses and the optimal exploitation of both combine to make the processes of risk management more complex and hazardous than the traditional sports where risk management…

  15. Application of data mining to medical risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsumoto, Shusaku; Matsuoka, Kimiko; Yokoyama, Shigeki

    2008-03-01

    This paper proposes an application of data mining to medical risk management, where data mining techniques were applied to detection, analysis and evaluation of risks potentially existing in clinical environments. We applied this technique to the following two medical domains: risk aversion of nurse incidents and infection control. The results show that data mining methods were effective to detection and aversion of risk factors.

  16. 7 CFR 2.44 - Administrator, Risk Management Agency and Manager, Federal Crop Insurance Corporation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Administrator, Risk Management Agency and Manager... Secretary for Farm and Foreign Agricultural Services to the Administrator, Risk Management Agency, and... for the transaction of the business of the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation and the Risk...

  17. 7 CFR 2.44 - Administrator, Risk Management Agency and Manager, Federal Crop Insurance Corporation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Administrator, Risk Management Agency and Manager... Secretary for Farm and Foreign Agricultural Services to the Administrator, Risk Management Agency, and... for the transaction of the business of the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation and the Risk...

  18. 7 CFR 2.44 - Administrator, Risk Management Agency and Manager, Federal Crop Insurance Corporation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Administrator, Risk Management Agency and Manager... Secretary for Farm and Foreign Agricultural Services to the Administrator, Risk Management Agency, and... for the transaction of the business of the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation and the Risk...

  19. 7 CFR 2.44 - Administrator, Risk Management Agency and Manager, Federal Crop Insurance Corporation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Administrator, Risk Management Agency and Manager... Secretary for Farm and Foreign Agricultural Services to the Administrator, Risk Management Agency, and... for the transaction of the business of the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation and the Risk...

  20. Risk management tips for video technology.

    PubMed

    Pickering, A M

    1995-01-01

    Proper management of the videotaping of medical procedures begins with identifying the purpose of the video; determining whether it is educational, diagnostic-related, or for "public relations" purposes; and obtaining a clearly defined consent that addresses an understanding of all risks and expectations involved. Although an exception to the policy may become necessary in some instances, addressing the key issues in policies and procedures before taping is the key to minimizing risks. Videotapes are useful as a teaching tool, but they also can easily become a part of the discovery process in a malpractice suit. Given the current nature of discovery in most states, many courts would require disclosure of the videotape. Although this may be disturbing to many health care providers, it should also be considered that the videotape could contain a valid record that the procedure was performed correctly, clearing the physician or facility involved of charges of negligence. With video cameras in such common use today, a positive, proactive position on the benefits involved in videotaping should be taken to minimize the potential negative ramifications that could occur.