Science.gov

Sample records for adaptive risk management

  1. Adaptation and risk management

    SciTech Connect

    Preston, Benjamin L

    2011-01-01

    Adaptation assessment methods are compatible with the international risk management standard ISO:31000. Risk management approaches are increasingly being recommended for adaptation assessments at both national and local levels. Two orientations to assessments can commonly be identified: top-down and bottom-up, and prescriptive and diagnostic. Combinations of these orientations favor different types of assessments. The choice of orientation can be related to uncertainties in prediction and taking action, in the type of adaptation and in the degree of system stress. Adopting multiple viewpoints is to be encouraged, especially in complex situations. The bulk of current guidance material is consistent with top-down and predictive approaches, thus is most suitable for risk scoping and identification. Abroad range ofmaterial fromwithin and beyond the climate change literature can be used to select methods to be used in assessing and implementing adaptation. The framing of risk, correct formulation of the questions being investigated and assessment methodology are critical aspects of the scoping phase. Only when these issues have been addressed should be issue of specific methods and tools be addressed. The reorientation of adaptation from an assessment focused solely on anthropogenic climate change to broader issues of vulnerability/resilience, sustainable development and disaster risk, especially through a risk management framework, can draw from existing policy and management understanding in communities, professions and agencies, incorporating existing agendas, knowledge, risks, and issues they already face.

  2. Managing Climate Risk. Integrating Adaptation into World Bank Group Operations

    SciTech Connect

    Van Aalst, M.

    2006-08-15

    Climate change is already taking place, and further changes are inevitable. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people in these countries, are most at risk. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of developing countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world. Climate change thus directly affects the World Bank Group's mission of eradicating poverty. It also puts at risk many projects in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, human health, water resources, and environment. The risks include physical threats to the investments, potential underperformance, and the possibility that projects will indirectly contribute to rising vulnerability by, for example, triggering investment and settlement in high-risk areas. The way to address these concerns is not to separate climate change adaptation from other priorities but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, programs, and projects. While there is a great need to heighten awareness of climate risk in Bank work, a large body of experience on climate risk management is already available, in analytical work, in country dialogues, and in a growing number of investment projects. This operational experience highlights the general ingredients for successful integration of climate risk management into the mainstream development agenda: getting the right sectoral departments and senior policy makers involved; incorporating risk management into economic planning; engaging a wide range of nongovernmental actors (businesses, nongovernmental organizations, communities, and so on); giving attention to regulatory issues; and choosing strategies that will pay off immediately under current

  3. Adaptive and Rational Anticipations in Risk Management Systems and Economy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dubois, Daniel M.; Holmberg, Stig C.

    2010-11-01

    The global financial crisis of year 2009 is explained as a result of uncoordinated risk management decisions in business firms and economic organisations. The underlying reason for this can be found in the current financial system. As the financial market has lost much of its direct coupling to the concrete economy it provides misleading information to economic decision makers at all levels. Hence, the financial system has moved from a state of moderate and slow cyclical fluctuations into a state of fast and chaotic ones. Those misleading decisions can further be described, but not explained, by help of adaptive and rational expectations from macroeconomic theory. In this context, AE, the Adaptive Expectations are related to weak passive Exo-anticipation, and RE, the Rational expectations can be related to a strong, active and design oriented anticipation. The shortcomings of conventional cures, which builds on a reactive paradigm, have already been demonstrated in economic literature and are here further underlined by help of Ashby's "Law of Requisite Variety", Weaver's distinction between systems of "Disorganized Complexity" and those of "Organized Complexity", and Klir's "Reconstructability Analysis". Anticipatory decision-making is hence here proposed as a replacement to current expectation based and passive risk management. An anticipatory model of the business cycle is presented for supporting that proposition. The model, which is an extension of the Kaldor-Kalecki model, includes both retardation and anticipation. While cybernetics with the feedback process in control system deals with an explicit goal or purpose given to a system, the anticipatory system discussed here deals with a behaviour for which the future state of the system is built by the system itself, without explicit goal. A system with weak anticipation is based on a predictive model of the system, while a system with strong anticipation builds its own future by itself. Numerical simulations on

  4. Adaptive Management

    EPA Science Inventory

    Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management where knowledge is incomplete, and when, despite inherent uncertainty, managers and policymakers must act. Unlike a traditional trial and error approach, adaptive managem...

  5. Climate Change Risk Management: CRE Adaptation Projects and the Risk Management Process

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document describes National Estuary Program partner projects that demonstrate how risk management can be successfully applied to address environmental challenges in our country’s coastal areas.

  6. Analysis of Risk Management in Adapted Physical Education Textbooks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Kelle L.; Donovan, Jacqueline B.; Berg, Dominck A.

    2016-01-01

    Physical education teacher education (PETE) programs vary on how the topics of safe teaching and risk management are addressed. Common practices to cover such issues include requiring textbooks, lesson planning, peer teaching, videotaping, reflecting, and reading case law analyses. We used a mixed methods design to examine how risk management is…

  7. Adaptive management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management where knowledge is incomplete, and when, despite inherent uncertainty, managers and policymakers must act. Unlike a traditional trial and error approach, adaptive management has explicit structure, including a careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. The process is iterative, and serves to reduce uncertainty, build knowledge and improve management over time in a goal-oriented and structured process.

  8. Farms adaptation to changes in flood risk: a management approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pivot, Jean-Marc; Martin, Philippe

    2002-10-01

    Creating flood expansion areas e.g. for the protection of urban areas from flooding involves a localised increase in risk which may require farmers to be compensated for crop damage or other losses. With this in mind, the paper sets out the approach used to study the problem and gives results obtained from a survey of farms liable to flooding in central France. The approach is based on a study of decisions made by farmers in situations of uncertainty, using the concept of 'model of action'. The results show that damage caused to farming areas by flooding should be considered both at field level and at farm level. The damage caused to the field depends on the flood itself, the fixed characteristics of the field, and the plant species cultivated. However, the losses to the farm taken as a whole can differ considerably from those for the flooded field, due to 'knock-on' effects on farm operations which depend on the internal organization, the availability of production resources, and the farmer's objectives, both for the farm as a whole and for its individual enterprises. Three main strategies regarding possible flood events were identified. Reasons for choosing one of these include the way the farmer perceives the risk and the size of the area liable to flooding. Finally, the formalisation of farm system management in the face of uncertainty, especially due to flooding, enables compensation to be calculated for farmers whose land is affected by the creation of flood expansion areas.

  9. Societal transformation and adaptation necessary to manage dynamics in flood hazard and risk mitigation (TRANS-ADAPT)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas; Bonnefond, Mathieu; Clarke, Darren; Driessen, Peter; Hegger, Dries; Gatien-Tournat, Amandine; Gralepois, Mathilde; Fournier, Marie; Mees, Heleen; Murphy, Conor; Servain-Courant, Sylvie

    2015-04-01

    project is both scientifically innovative and policy relevant, thereby supporting climate policy needs in Europe towards a concept of risk governance. Key words: climate change adaptation; transformation; flood risk management; resilience; vulnerability; innovative bottom-up developments; multifunctional use

  10. Adaptive Flood Risk Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty Using Real Options and Optimization.

    PubMed

    Woodward, Michelle; Kapelan, Zoran; Gouldby, Ben

    2014-01-01

    It is well recognized that adaptive and flexible flood risk strategies are required to account for future uncertainties. Development of such strategies is, however, a challenge. Climate change alone is a significant complication, but, in addition, complexities exist trying to identify the most appropriate set of mitigation measures, or interventions. There are a range of economic and environmental performance measures that require consideration, and the spatial and temporal aspects of evaluating the performance of these is complex. All these elements pose severe difficulties to decisionmakers. This article describes a decision support methodology that has the capability to assess the most appropriate set of interventions to make in a flood system and the opportune time to make these interventions, given the future uncertainties. The flood risk strategies have been explicitly designed to allow for flexible adaptive measures by capturing the concepts of real options and multiobjective optimization to evaluate potential flood risk management opportunities. A state-of-the-art flood risk analysis tool is employed to evaluate the risk associated to each strategy over future points in time and a multiobjective genetic algorithm is utilized to search for the optimal adaptive strategies. The modeling system has been applied to a reach on the Thames Estuary (London, England), and initial results show the inclusion of flexibility is advantageous, while the outputs provide decisionmakers with supplementary knowledge that previously has not been considered.

  11. Risk Tradeoffs in Adaptive Ecosystem Management: The Case of the U.S. Forest Service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stern, Marc J.; Martin, Caysie A.; Predmore, S. Andrew; Morse, Wayde C.

    2014-06-01

    Natural resource planning processes on public lands in the United States are driven in large part by the requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which dictates general processes for analyzing and disclosing the likely impacts of proposed actions. The outcomes of these processes are the result of multiple factors, many related to the manifold smaller incremental decisions made by agency personnel directing the processes. Through interviews with decision makers, team leaders, and team members on five NEPA processes within the U.S. Forest Service, this study examines those incremental decisions. Risk, in particular external relationship risk, emerged as a dominant lens through which agency personnel weigh and make process-related decisions. We discuss the tradeoffs associated with agency actors' emphasis on this form of risk and their potential implications for adaptive ecosystem management and organizational performance.

  12. A general risk-based adaptive management scheme incorporating the Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model with the South River, Virginia, as case study.

    PubMed

    Landis, Wayne G; Markiewicz, April J; Ayre, Kim K; Johns, Annie F; Harris, Meagan J; Stinson, Jonah M; Summers, Heather M

    2017-01-01

    Adaptive management has been presented as a method for the remediation, restoration, and protection of ecological systems. Recent reviews have found that the implementation of adaptive management has been unsuccessful in many instances. We present a modification of the model first formulated by Wyant and colleagues that puts ecological risk assessment into a central role in the adaptive management process. This construction has 3 overarching segments. Public engagement and governance determine the goals of society by identifying endpoints and specifying constraints such as costs. The research, engineering, risk assessment, and management section contains the decision loop estimating risk, evaluating options, specifying the monitoring program, and incorporating the data to re-evaluate risk. The 3rd component is the recognition that risk and public engagement can be altered by various externalities such as climate change, economics, technological developments, and population growth. We use the South River, Virginia, USA, study area and our previous research to illustrate each of these components. In our example, we use the Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model to estimate risks, evaluate remediation options, and provide lists of monitoring priorities. The research, engineering, risk assessment, and management loop also provides a structure in which data and the records of what worked and what did not, the learning process, can be stored. The learning process is a central part of adaptive management. We conclude that risk assessment can and should become an integral part of the adaptive management process. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:115-126. © 2016 SETAC.

  13. Risk Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Randal, L. Nathan

    This chapter of "Principles of School Business Management" presents an overview of risk management for school districts. The chapter first discusses four fundamental elements of risk management: (1) identifying and measuring risks; (2) reducing or eliminating risks; (3) transferring unassumable risks; and (4) assuming remaining risks.…

  14. Science-policy interface in transformative adaptive flood risk management - decision-making in Austria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thaler, Thomas; Attems, Marie-Sophie; Rauter, Magdalena; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this paper aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this paper focussed on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. This paper used the Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA) as a method to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a system and its potential future development, based on qualitatively assessed impact factors and rated quantitative relations between these factors, such as impact and consistency analysis. The purpose of this approach was to develop scenarios, where participations develop their own strategies how to implement a transformative adaptation strategy in flood risk management. In particular, the interaction between researcher, the public and policy makers was analysed. Challenges and limitations were assessed, such as benefits on costs of adaptation measures, for the implementation of visions to

  15. Private adaptation strategies and implementation in flood risk management: why people do nothing?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Thaler, Thomas; Maris, Fotios; Paparrizos, Spyros; Fuchs, Sven

    2015-04-01

    In the past decades, vulnerability assessment has emerged as an important field of research in flood risk management, in particular with respect to climate change and necessary adaptation strategies for the society. Probably starting with Chamber's seminal article on vulnerability, coping and policy (Chambers 1989), and further developed as the causal structure of vulnerability by Bohle (2001) and others, at least two research paradigms exist: an internal side focusing on societal resilience and coping capacities, and an external side targeted at a reduction of negative effects in terms of loss reduction (Fuchs 2009). Despite considerable research effects, however, different definitions and concepts still dominate the debate; it is surely that different scientific disciplines are working with this term: natural scientists, engineers, social scientists or economists, to name just a few. Each discipline defines vulnerability in a way which fits to their disciplinary purposes (Fuchs et al. 2011). But why has there been so little progress in our ability to adapt to flood hazards? White et al. (2001) summarised this paradox in an article with the title "Knowing better and losing even more - the use of knowledge in hazard management". One of the fundamental reasons for the lack of progress is the continuing separation of research on natural processes and socio-economic processes without considering interaction between these systems (Fuchs & Keiler 2013), as well as between scientific research results and the policy implementation (Medd & Marvin 2005). Moreover, as many studies were focused on the vulnerability of least developed societies to natural hazards (O'Brien et al. 2008), there is a particular lack in studies targeted at an implementation of existing adaptation frameworks at the level of highly-developed countries (Field et al. 2012; Scolobig et al. 2012). This gap results in a challenge for attempts to develop formal models into practical application and policy

  16. Addressing Disaster Risk Management and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Context of Sustainable Development in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osman Elasha, B. M. E.

    2015-12-01

    The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) demonstrates that an extreme event which used to occur infrequently and perceived today as abnormal will be tomorrow's 'normal' weather. For example the drought events in the African Sahel which once came every decade could now come every couple of years bringing a new challenge and leading to severe disturbances and rapid environmental changes. The report identified and analyzed the problems associated with extreme climatic events, and examined how human responses to these events and the consequent disasters could contribute to adaptation objectives, and how adaptation to climate change could become better integrated with Disasters Risk Management (DRM) practices. Moreover, a number of studies explored the linkages and interactions between disasters and development and clearly demonstrates how the exposure to extremes and vulnerability to climate change can hinder development efforts, emphasizing the need for much smarter development and economic policies that consider managing disaster risk and implement adaptation measures as main components of sustainable development. The proposed presentation will provide an overview of findings from IPCC reports and other studies and will draw on existing experiences and lessons learned to explore the linkages between disaster risk management, adaptation and economic development in Africa. It will also shed light on some of the regional and global interventions which aim at mitigating the impacts of extremes and disasters in African countries characterized by high exposure & vulnerability and low adaptive capacity. It concludes by highlighting the need for broader cooperation and partnership between development partners and agencies working on disaster risk management & climate change adaptation including the private sector, bilateral and multilateral agencies in order to ensure sustainable development.

  17. Security engineering: systems engineering of security through the adaptation and application of risk management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gilliam, David P.; Feather, Martin S.

    2004-01-01

    Information Technology (IT) Security Risk Management is a critical task in the organization, which must protect its resources and data against the loss of confidentiality, integrity, and availability. As systems become more complex and diverse, and more vulnerabilities are discovered while attacks from intrusions and malicious content increase, it is becoming increasingly difficult to manage IT security. This paper describes an approach to address IT security risk through risk management and mitigation in both the institution and in the project life cycle.

  18. Adaptive Management of Ecosystems

    EPA Science Inventory

    Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management. As such, management may be treated as experiment, with replication, or management may be conducted in an iterative manner. Although the concept has resonated with many...

  19. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters in a Changing Climate: Lessons for Adaptation to Climate Change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mastrandrea, M.; Field, C. B.; Mach, K. J.; Barros, V.

    2013-12-01

    The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, published in 2012, integrates expertise in climate science, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation to inform discussions on how to reduce and manage the risks of extreme events and disasters in a changing climate. Impacts and the risks of disasters are determined by the interaction of the physical characteristics of weather and climate events with the vulnerability of exposed human society and ecosystems. The Special Report evaluates the factors that make people and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme events, trends in disaster losses, recent and future changes in the relationship between climate change and extremes, and experience with a wide range of options used by institutions, organizations, and communities to reduce exposure and vulnerability, and improve resilience, to climate extremes. Actions ranging from incremental improvements in governance and technology to more transformational changes are assessed. The Special Report provides a knowledge base that is also relevant to the broader context of managing the risks of climate change through mitigation, adaptation, and other responses, assessed in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), to be completed in 2014. These themes include managing risks through an iterative process involving learning about risks and the effectiveness of responses, employing a portfolio of actions tailored to local circumstances but with links from local to global scales, and considering additional benefits of actions such as improving livelihoods and well-being. The Working Group II contribution to the AR5 also examines the ways that extreme events and their impacts contribute to understanding of vulnerabilities and adaptation deficits in the context of climate change, the extent to which impacts of climate change are experienced through changes in the frequency and severity of extremes as opposed to mean changes

  20. Impacts Of Climate Change On Ecosystems Management In Africa: An Assessment Of Disaster Risk Management And Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ndebele-Murisa, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    This paper is a synthesis of eight studies which demonstrate the interface between disaster risk management (DRM) and adaptation. The studies; conducted from November 2011 to July 2012 included diverse ecosystems from forests, coastlines, rural areas to a lake region and showed that climate change/variability are major factors among other factors such as deforestation and land degradation, unsustainable land use practices, overharvesting of natural products and invasive species encroachment that are causing changes in ecosystems. The most common extreme events reported included shifts in and shorter rainfall seasons, extended droughts, increased temperatures, extreme heat, heavy rainfall, flooding, inundation, strong winds and sea level rises. As a result of these climate phenomena, adverse impacts on ecosystems and communities were reported as biodiversity loss, reduced fish catch, reduced water for forests/agriculture/consumption, increased rough waves, coastal erosion/sediment deposition and lastly land/mud slides in order of commonality. In response to these impacts communities are practicing coping and adaptation strategies but there is a huge gap between proper DRM and adaptation. This is mainly because the adaptation is practiced as an aftermath with very little effort propelled towards proactive DRM or preparedness. In addition, national level policies are archaic and do not address the current environmental changes. This was demonstrated in Togo where wood energy potential is deteriorating at an unprecedented rate but is projected to increase between 6.4% and 101% in the near and far future if the national forest action plans are implemented; preventing an energy crisis in the country. This shows that appropriate legal and policy frameworks and well planned responses to projected extreme events and climate changes are crucial in order to prevent disasters and to achieve sustainable utilisation of resources in the continent.

  1. Risk management.

    PubMed

    Chambers, David W

    2010-01-01

    Every plan contains risk. To proceed without planning some means of managing that risk is to court failure. The basic logic of risk is explained. It consists in identifying a threshold where some corrective action is necessary, the probability of exceeding that threshold, and the attendant cost should the undesired outcome occur. This is the probable cost of failure. Various risk categories in dentistry are identified, including lack of liquidity; poor quality; equipment or procedure failures; employee slips; competitive environments; new regulations; unreliable suppliers, partners, and patients; and threats to one's reputation. It is prudent to make investments in risk management to the extent that the cost of managing the risk is less than the probable loss due to risk failure and when risk management strategies can be matched to type of risk. Four risk management strategies are discussed: insurance, reducing the probability of failure, reducing the costs of failure, and learning. A risk management accounting of the financial meltdown of October 2008 is provided.

  2. Avoiding the Water-Climate-Poverty Trap: Adaptive Risk Management for Bangladesh's Coastal Embankments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hall, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    Our recent research on water security (Sadoff et al., 2015, Dadson et al., 2015) has revealed the dynamic relationship between water security and human well-being. A version of this dynamic is materialising in the coastal polder areas of Khulna, Bangladesh. Repeated coastal floods increase salinity, wipe out agricultural yields for several years and increase out-migration. As a tool to help inform and target future cycles of investment in improvements to the coastal embankments, in this paper we propose a dynamical model of biophysical processes and human well-being, which downscales our previous research to the Khulna region. State variables in the model include agricultural production, population, life expectancy and child mortality. Possible infrastructure interventions include embankment improvements, groundwater wells and drainage infrastructure. Hazard factors include flooding, salinization and drinking water pollution. Our system model can be used to inform adaptation decision making by testing the dynamical response of the system to a range of possible policy interventions, under uncertain future conditions. The analysis is intended to target investment and enable adaptive resource reallocation based on learning about the system response to interventions over the seven years of our research programme. The methodology and paper will demonstrate the complex interplay of factors that determine system vulnerability to climate change. The role of climate change uncertainties (in terms of mean sea level rise and storm surge frequency) will be evaluated alongside multiple other uncertain factors that determine system response. Adaptive management in a 'learning system' will be promoted as a mechanism for coping with climate uncertainties. References:Dadson, S., Hall, J.W., Garrick, D., Sadoff, C. and Grey, D. Water security, risk and economic growth: lessons from a dynamical systems model, Global Environmental Change, in review.Sadoff, C.W., Hall, J.W., Grey, D

  3. Integrating land cover modeling and adaptive management to conserve endangered species and reduce catastrophic fire risk

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Breininger, David; Duncan, Brean; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Johnson, Fred; Nichols, James

    2014-01-01

    Land cover modeling is used to inform land management, but most often via a two-step process, where science informs how management alternatives can influence resources, and then, decision makers can use this information to make decisions. A more efficient process is to directly integrate science and decision-making, where science allows us to learn in order to better accomplish management objectives and is developed to address specific decisions. Co-development of management and science is especially productive when decisions are complicated by multiple objectives and impeded by uncertainty. Multiple objectives can be met by the specification of tradeoffs, and relevant uncertainty can be addressed through targeted science (i.e., models and monitoring). We describe how to integrate habitat and fuel monitoring with decision-making focused on the dual objectives of managing for endangered species and minimizing catastrophic fire risk. Under certain conditions, both objectives might be achieved by a similar management policy; other conditions require tradeoffs between objectives. Knowledge about system responses to actions can be informed by developing hypotheses based on ideas about fire behavior and then applying competing management actions to different land units in the same system state. Monitoring and management integration is important to optimize state-specific management decisions and to increase knowledge about system responses. We believe this approach has broad utility and identifies a clear role for land cover modeling programs intended to inform decision-making.

  4. Adaptive management: Chapter 1

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management where knowledge is incomplete, and when, despite inherent uncertainty, managers and policymakers must act. Unlike a traditional trial and error approach, adaptive management has explicit structure, including a careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. The process is iterative, and serves to reduce uncertainty, build knowledge and improve management over time in a goal-oriented and structured process.

  5. Extreme weather events: Should drinking water quality management systems adapt to changing risk profiles?

    PubMed

    Khan, Stuart J; Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Jenkins, Madeleine; Cunliffe, David

    2015-11-15

    Among the most widely predicted and accepted consequences of global climate change are increases in both the frequency and severity of a variety of extreme weather events. Such weather events include heavy rainfall and floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves, extreme cold, and wildfires, each of which can potentially impact drinking water quality by affecting water catchments, storage reservoirs, the performance of water treatment processes or the integrity of distribution systems. Drinking water guidelines, such as the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and the World Health Organization Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, provide guidance for the safe management of drinking water. These documents present principles and strategies for managing risks that may be posed to drinking water quality. While these principles and strategies are applicable to all types of water quality risks, very little specific attention has been paid to the management of extreme weather events. We present a review of recent literature on water quality impacts of extreme weather events and consider practical opportunities for improved guidance for water managers. We conclude that there is a case for an enhanced focus on the management of water quality impacts from extreme weather events in future revisions of water quality guidance documents.

  6. How rural land use management facilitates drought risk adaptation in a changing climate - A case study in arid northern China.

    PubMed

    Lei, Yongdeng; Zhang, Hailin; Chen, Fu; Zhang, Linbo

    2016-04-15

    Under a warming climate, frequent drought and water scarcity in northern China have severely disrupted agricultural production and posed a substantial threat to farmers' livelihoods. Based on first-hand data collected through in-depth interviews with local managers and farmer households, this study evaluated the effectiveness of rural land use management in mitigating drought risk, ensuring food security and improving farmers' livelihoods. Our findings indicate that a) reforestation on low-yield cropland not only can improve the eco-environment but can also prominently mitigate the production risk to local farmers; b) replacing the traditional border irrigation with sprinkler irrigation has substantially curbed agricultural water usage and increased the per unit of output; and c) in recent years, instead of planting water-intensive grain crops, local farmers cultivated more forage crops to raise animals, which greatly diversified their income sources and reduced the drought risk of agricultural production. By performing an empirical case study in drought-prone Inner Mongolia, this study provides decision-makers with insights into how to strategically adapt to drought risk and reduce rural poverty within the broader context of climate change.

  7. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

    SciTech Connect

    Field, C.B.; Barros, V.; Stocker, T.F.

    2012-07-01

    This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decision making under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management. The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies. (LN)

  8. Classification and assessment of water bodies as adaptive structural measures for flood risk management planning.

    PubMed

    McMinn, William R; Yang, Qinli; Scholz, Miklas

    2010-09-01

    Severe rainfall events have become increasingly common in Europe. Flood defence engineering works are highly capital intensive and can be limited by land availability, leaving land and communities exposed to repeated flooding. Any adaptive drainage structure must have engineered inlets and outlets that control the water level and the rate of release. In Scotland, there are a relatively high number of drinking water reservoirs (operated by Scottish Water), which fall within this defined category and could contribute to flood management control. Reducing the rate of runoff from the upper reaches of a catchment will reduce the volume and peak flows of flood events downstream, thus allowing flood defences to be reduced in size, decreasing the corresponding capital costs. A database of retention basins with flood control potential has been developed for Scotland. The research shows that the majority of small and former drinking water reservoirs are kept full and their spillways are continuously in operation. Utilising some of the available capacity to contribute to flood control could reduce the costs of complying with the EU Flood Directive. Furthermore, the application of a previously developed classification model for Baden in Germany for the Scottish data set showed a lower diversity for basins in Scotland due to less developed infrastructure. The principle value of this approach is a clear and unambiguous categorisation, based on standard variables, which can help to promote communication and understanding between stakeholders.

  9. The Women's Role in the Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change: Its Contribution to the Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quintero Angel, M.; Carvajal Escobar, Y.; Garcia Vargas, M.

    2007-05-01

    Recently, there is evidence of an increase in the amount of severity in extreme events associated with the climate variability or climate change; which demonstrates that climate in this planet is changing. There is an observation of increasing damages, and of social economical cost associated with these phenomena's, mostly do to more people are living in hazard vulnerable conditions. The victims of natural disasters have increase from 147 to 211 million between 1991 and 2000. In same way more than 665.000 people have died in 2557 natural disasters, which 90% are associated with water and climate. (UNESCO & WWAP, 2003). The actual tendency and the introduction of new factors of risk, suggest lost increase in the future, obligating actions to manage and reduce risk of disaster. Bind work, health, poverty, education, water, climate, and disasters is not an error, is an obligation. Vulnerability of society to natural hazards and to poverty are bond, to reduce the risk of disasters is frequently united with the reduction of poverty and in the other way too (Sen, 2000). In this context, extreme events impact societies in all the world, affecting differently men and women, do to the different roles they play in the society, the different access in the control of resources, the few participation that women have in taking decisions with preparedness, mitigation, rehabilitation of disasters, impacting more women in developing countries. Although, women understand better the causes and local consequences in changes of climate conditions. They have a pile of knowledge and abilities for guiding adaptation, playing a very important role in vulnerable communities. This work shows how these topics connect with the millennium development goals; particularly how it affects its accomplishment. It also describes the impact of climate variability and climate change in developing countries. Analyzing adaptation responses that are emerging; especially from women initiation.

  10. Adaptive Learning and Risk Taking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Denrell, Jerker

    2007-01-01

    Humans and animals learn from experience by reducing the probability of sampling alternatives with poor past outcomes. Using simulations, J. G. March (1996) illustrated how such adaptive sampling could lead to risk-averse as well as risk-seeking behavior. In this article, the author develops a formal theory of how adaptive sampling influences risk…

  11. NASA's Risk Management System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2011-01-01

    Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  12. Successful Acquisition Risk Management: A Concept,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    analysis, has recently been advocating a shift from a focus on risk assessment and risk acceptance analysis towards risk management . The purpose of this...risk managers fail to realize their true and productive role in the risk management process. Finally, it is possible that the Deming management...philosophy underlying his quality control concepts can be adapted to aid more effective DoD systems acquisition risk management . (Author)

  13. NASA's Risk Management System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2013-01-01

    Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  14. Managing Risks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Osborn, John E.

    2006-01-01

    Colleges and universities face a wide range of environmental risk. In spite of this, with proper planning, they can avoid emergencies or surprises. Advanced planning, coupled with strategic, technical environmental and legal advice, enable higher-education institutions to keep their environmental budgets under control and predictable. This article…

  15. Risk Management for Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Association of Independent Schools, Boston, MA.

    This manual focuses on the promotion of good risk management practices. The first of four sections presents an overview of risk management in terms of risk management concepts and avoiding, transferring, controlling, and financing risk. Second, the manual present methods for identifying and assessing risk. The third section discusses different…

  16. Risk management integration into complex project organizations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fisher, K.; Greanias, G.; Rose, J.; Dumas, R.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the approach used in designing and adapting the SIRTF prototype, discusses some of the lessons learned in developing the SIRTF prototype, and explains the adaptability of the risk management database to varying levels project complexity.

  17. Project Risk Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jr., R. F. Miles

    1995-01-01

    Project risk management is primarily concerned with performance, reliability, cost, and schedule. Environmental risk management is primarily concerned with human health and ecological hazards and likelihoods. This paper discusses project risk management and compares it to environmental risk management, both with respect to goals and implementation. The approach of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to risk management is presented as an example of a project risk management approach that is an extension to NASA NHB 7120.5: Management of Major System Programs and Projects.

  18. Risk Management in EVA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Jonathan; Lutomski, M.

    2006-01-01

    This viewgraph presentation reviews the use of risk management in Extravehicular Activities (EVA). The contents include: 1) EVA Office at NASA - JSC; 2) EVA Project Risk Management: Why and When; 3) EVA Office Risk Management: How; 4) Criteria for Closing a Risk; 5) Criteria for Accepting a Risk; 6) ISS IRMA Reference Card Data Entry Requirement s; 7) XA/ EVA Office Risk Activity Summary; 8) EVA Significant Change Summary; 9) Integrated Risk Management Application (XA) Matrix, March 31, 2004; 10) ISS Watch Item: 50XX Summary Report; and 11) EVA Project RM Usefulness

  19. Risk Management and Prevention.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Letzring, Timothy D.

    1999-01-01

    Schools cannot eliminate all risks but can manage them so they minimally affect the "bottom line." A sound risk-management program has four categories: risk avoidance, control, transfer, and retention. Schools retain some risk in situations when insurance is unavailable, costs are negligible, or loss probabilities are remote. (MLH)

  20. [Global risk management].

    PubMed

    Sghaier, W; Hergon, E; Desroches, A

    2015-08-01

    Risk management is a fundamental component of any successful company, whether it is in economic, societal or environmental aspect. Risk management is an especially important activity for companies that optimal security challenge of products and services is great. This is the case especially for the health sector institutions. Risk management is therefore a decision support tool and a means to ensure the sustainability of an organization. In this context, what methods and approaches implemented to manage the risks? Through this state of the art, we are interested in the concept of risk and risk management processes. Then we focus on the different methods of risk management and the criteria for choosing among these methods. Finally we highlight the need to supplement these methods by a systemic and global approach including through risk assessment by the audits.

  1. Risk Management Implementation Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, Shayla L.

    2004-01-01

    Continuous Risk Management (CM) is a software engineering practice with processes, methods, and tools for managing risk in a project. It provides a controlled environment for practical decision making, in order to assess continually what could go wrong, determine which risk are important to deal with, implement strategies to deal with those risk and assure the measure effectiveness of the implemented strategies. Continuous Risk Management provides many training workshops and courses to teach the staff how to implement risk management to their various experiments and projects. The steps of the CRM process are identification, analysis, planning, tracking, and control. These steps and the various methods and tools that go along with them, identification, and dealing with risk is clear-cut. The office that I worked in was the Risk Management Office (RMO). The RMO at NASA works hard to uphold NASA s mission of exploration and advancement of scientific knowledge and technology by defining and reducing program risk. The RMO is one of the divisions that fall under the Safety and Assurance Directorate (SAAD). I worked under Cynthia Calhoun, Flight Software Systems Engineer. My task was to develop a help screen for the Continuous Risk Management Implementation Tool (RMIT). The Risk Management Implementation Tool will be used by many NASA managers to identify, analyze, track, control, and communicate risks in their programs and projects. The RMIT will provide a means for NASA to continuously assess risks. The goals and purposes for this tool is to provide a simple means to manage risks, be used by program and project managers throughout NASA for managing risk, and to take an aggressive approach to advertise and advocate the use of RMIT at each NASA center.

  2. A holistic strategy for adaptive land management

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management. Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adapta...

  3. Hydropower, Adaptive Management, and Biodiversity

    PubMed

    WIERINGA; MORTON

    1996-11-01

    / Adaptive management is a policy framework within which an iterative process of decision making is followed based on the observed responses to and effectiveness of previous decisions. The use of adaptive management allows science-based research and monitoring of natural resource and ecological community responses, in conjunction with societal values and goals, to guide decisions concerning man's activities. The adaptive management process has been proposed for application to hydropower operations at Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River, a situation that requires complex balancing of natural resources requirements and competing human uses. This example is representative of the general increase in public interest in the operation of hydropower facilities and possible effects on downstream natural resources and of the growing conflicts between uses and users of river-based resources. This paper describes the adaptive management process, using the Glen Canyon Dam example, and discusses ways to make the process work effectively in managing downstream natural resources and biodiversity. KEY WORDS: Adaptive management; Biodiversity; Hydropower; Glen Canyon Dam; Ecology

  4. Perspectives: Intellectual Risk Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hall, James C.

    2013-01-01

    Ask a college administrator about students and risk management, and you're likely to get a quick and agitated speech about alcohol consumption and bad behavior or a meditation on mental health and campus safety. But in colleges and universities, we manage intellectual risk-taking too. Bring that up, and you'll probably get little out of that same…

  5. Issue Management Risk Ranking Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Novack, Steven David; Marshall, Frances Mc Clellan; Stromberg, Howard Merion; Grant, Gary Michael

    1999-06-01

    Thousands of safety issues have been collected on-line at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) as part of the Issue Management Plan. However, there has been no established approach to prioritize collected and future issues. The authors developed a methodology, based on hazards assessment, to identify and risk rank over 5000 safety issues collected at INEEL. This approach required that it was easily applied and understandable for site adaptation and commensurate with the Integrated Safety Plan. High-risk issues were investigated and mitigative/preventive measures were suggested and ranked based on a cost-benefit scheme to provide risk-informed safety measures. This methodology was consistent with other integrated safety management goals and tasks providing a site-wide risk informed decision tool to reduce hazardous conditions and focus resources on high-risk safety issues. As part of the issue management plan, this methodology was incorporated at the issue collection level and training was provided to management to better familiarize decision-makers with concepts of safety and risk. This prioritization methodology and issue dissemination procedure will be discussed. Results of issue prioritization and training efforts will be summarized. Difficulties and advantages of the process will be reported. Development and incorporation of this process into INEELs lessons learned reporting and the site-wide integrated safety management program will be shown with an emphasis on establishing self reliance and ownership of safety issues.

  6. Adaptive management of urban watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garmestani, A.; Shuster, W.; Green, O. O.

    2013-12-01

    Consent decree settlements for violations of the Clean Water Act (1972) increasingly include provisions for redress of combined sewer overflow activity through hybrid approaches that incorporate the best of both gray (e.g., storage tunnels) and green infrastructure (e.g., rain gardens). Adaptive management is an environmental management strategy that uses an iterative process of decision-making to improve environmental management via system monitoring. A central tenet of adaptive management is that management involves a learning process that can help regulated communities achieve environmental quality objectives. We are using an adaptive management approach to guide a green infrastructure retrofit of a neighborhood in the Slavic Village Development Corporation area (Cleveland, Ohio). We are in the process of gathering hydrologic and ecosystem services data and will use this data as a basis for collaboration with area citizens on a plan to use green infrastructure to contain stormflows. Monitoring data provides researchers with feedback on the impact of green infrastructure implementation and suggest where improvements can be made.

  7. Risk Management Plan Rule

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    RMP implements Section 112(r) of the 1990 Clean Air Act amendments, and requires facilities that use extremely hazardous substances to develop a Risk Management Plan and revise/resubmit every five years. Find guidance, factsheets, training, and assistance.

  8. Groundwater Risk Management Handbook

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-01-01

    management approach. • Section 6.0 Case Studies : Provides examples of two sites where risk management approaches were employed to develop...unacceptable risk, but in some cases the remedy can be limited to land use controls (LUCs) with limited long- term monitoring, as discussed in the case study ...cost avoidance of $1,250,000 over active remediation. For more information on this equipment and additional case studies , view the Web tool at http

  9. Today's School Risk Manager

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Cheryl P.; Levering, Steve

    2009-01-01

    School districts are held accountable not only for the monies that contribute to the education system but also for mitigating any issues that threaten student learning. Some school districts are fortunate to have professional risk managers on staff who can identify and control the many risks that are unique to school systems. Most schools,…

  10. Multimodel inference and adaptive management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rehme, S.E.; Powell, L.A.; Allen, C.R.

    2011-01-01

    Ecology is an inherently complex science coping with correlated variables, nonlinear interactions and multiple scales of pattern and process, making it difficult for experiments to result in clear, strong inference. Natural resource managers, policy makers, and stakeholders rely on science to provide timely and accurate management recommendations. However, the time necessary to untangle the complexities of interactions within ecosystems is often far greater than the time available to make management decisions. One method of coping with this problem is multimodel inference. Multimodel inference assesses uncertainty by calculating likelihoods among multiple competing hypotheses, but multimodel inference results are often equivocal. Despite this, there may be pressure for ecologists to provide management recommendations regardless of the strength of their study’s inference. We reviewed papers in the Journal of Wildlife Management (JWM) and the journal Conservation Biology (CB) to quantify the prevalence of multimodel inference approaches, the resulting inference (weak versus strong), and how authors dealt with the uncertainty. Thirty-eight percent and 14%, respectively, of articles in the JWM and CB used multimodel inference approaches. Strong inference was rarely observed, with only 7% of JWM and 20% of CB articles resulting in strong inference. We found the majority of weak inference papers in both journals (59%) gave specific management recommendations. Model selection uncertainty was ignored in most recommendations for management. We suggest that adaptive management is an ideal method to resolve uncertainty when research results in weak inference.

  11. Competing risks and the development of adaptive management plans for water resources: Field reconnaissance investigation of risks to fishes and other aquatic biota exposed to endocrine disrupting chemicals (edcs) in lake mead, Nevada USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Linder, G.; Little, E.E.

    2009-01-01

    The analysis and characterization of competing risks for water resources rely on a wide spectrum of tools to evaluate hazards and risks associated with their management. For example, waters of the lower Colorado River stored in reservoirs such as Lake Mead present a wide range of competing risks related to water quantity and water quality. These risks are often interdependent and complicated by competing uses of source waters for sustaining biological resources and for supporting a range of agricultural, municipal, recreational, and industrial uses. USGS is currently conducting a series of interdisciplinary case-studies on water quality of Lake Mead and its source waters. In this case-study we examine selected constituents potentially entering the Lake Mead system, particularly endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). Worldwide, a number of environmental EDCs have been identified that affect reproduction, development, and adaptive behaviors in a wide range of organisms. Many EDCs are minimally affected by current treatment technologies and occur in treated sewage effluents. Several EDCs have been detected in Lake Mead, and several substances have been identified that are of concern because of potential impacts to the aquatic biota, including the sport fishery of Lake Mead and endangered razorback suckers (Xyrauchen texanus) that occur in the Colorado River system. For example, altered biomarkers relevant to reproduction and thyroid function in fishes have been observed and may be predictive of impaired metabolism and development. Few studies, however, have addressed whether such EDC-induced responses observed in the field have an ecologically significant effect on the reproductive success of fishes. To identify potential linkages between EDCs and species of management concern, the risk analysis and characterization in this reconnaissance study focused on effects (and attendant uncertainties) that might be expressed by exposed populations. In addition, risk reduction

  12. Air quality risk management.

    PubMed

    Williams, Martin L

    2008-01-01

    Rather than attempt to provide a comprehensive account of air quality risk assessment, as might be found in a textbook or manual, this article discusses some issues that are of current importance in the United Kingdom and the rest of Europe, with special emphasis on risk assessment in the context of policy formulation, and emerging scientific knowledge. There are two pollutants of particular concern and that both pose challenges for risk assessment and policy, and they are particulate matter (PM) and ozone. The article describes some issues for health risk assessment and finally some forward-looking suggestions for future approaches to air quality management.

  13. Adaptive management of watersheds and related resources

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, Byron K.

    2009-01-01

    The concept of learning about natural resources through the practice of management has been around for several decades and by now is associated with the term adaptive management. The objectives of this paper are to offer a framework for adaptive management that includes an operational definition, a description of conditions in which it can be usefully applied, and a systematic approach to its application. Adaptive decisionmaking is described as iterative, learning-based management in two phases, each with its own mechanisms for feedback and adaptation. The linkages between traditional experimental science and adaptive management are discussed.

  14. Risk management in surgery

    PubMed Central

    MESSANO, G.A.; SPAZIANI, E.; TURCHETTA, F.; CECI, F.; CORELLI, S.; CASCIARO, G.; MARTELLUCCI, A.; COSTANTINO, A.; NAPOLEONI, A.; CIPRIANI, B.; NICODEMI, S.; DI GRAZIA, C.; MOSILLO, R.; AVALLONE, M.; ORSINI, S.; TUDISCO, A.; AIUTI, F.; STAGNITTI, F.

    2013-01-01

    Summary Malpractice is the responsible for the greatest number of legal claims. At the present time, legal actions against physicians in Italy are 15,000 per year, and a stunning increase about costs to refund patients injured by therapeutic and diagnostic errors is expected. The method for the medical prevention is “Risk Management”, that is the setting-up of organizational instruments, methods and actions that enable the measurement or estimation of medical risk; it allows to develop strategies to govern and reduce medical error. In the present work, the reconstruction about the history of risk management in Italy was carried out. After then the latest initiatives undertaken by Italy about the issue of risk management were examined. PMID:24091181

  15. Integrated risk management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hunsucker, J. L.

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to first present a basis or foundation for the building of an integrated risk management plan and them to present the plan. The integration referred to is across both the temporal and the hierarchical dimensions. Complexity, consequence, and credibility seem to be driving the need for the consideration of risk. Reduction of personal bias and reproducibility of the decision making process seem to be driving the consideration of a formal risk plan. While risk can be used as either a selection tool or a control tool, this paper concentrates on the selection usage. Risk relies on stated purpose. The tightness of the definition of purpose and success is directly reflected in the definition and control of risk. Much of a risk management plan could be designed by the answers to the questions of why, what, who, when, and where. However, any plan must provide the following information about a threat or risk: likelihood, consequence, predictability, reliability, and reproducibility. While the environment at NASA is seen as warm, but not hot, for the introduction of a risk program, some encouragement is seen if the following problems are addressed: no champion, no commitment of resource, confused definitions, lack of direction and focus, a hard sell, NASA culture, many choices of assessment methods, and cost. The plan is designed to follow the normal method of doing work and is structured to follow either the work break down structure or a functional structure very well. The parts of the plan include: defining purpose and success, initial threat assessment, initial risk assessment, reconciling threats and parameters, putting part of the information down and factoring the information back into the decision process as it comes back up, and developing inferences. Two major suggestions are presented. One is to build an office of risk management to be used as a resource by managers in doing the risk process. Another is to form a pilot program to try

  16. A roadmap for climate change adaptation in Sweden's forests: addressing wicked problems using adaptive management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rist, L.; Felton, A.; Samuelsson, L.; Marald, E.; Karlsson, B.; Johansson, U.; Rosvall, O.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have significant direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems. Forests will have to adapt not only to changes in mean climate variables but also to increased climatic variability and altered disturbance regimes. Rates of change will likely exceed many forests capabilities to naturally adapt and many of today's trees will be exposed to the climates of 2090. In Sweden the effects are already being seen and more severe impacts are expected in the future. Exacerbating the challenge posed by climate change, a large proportion of Sweden's forests are, as a consequence of dominant production goals, greatly simplified and thus potentially more vulnerable to the uncertainties and risks associated with climate change. This simplification also confers reduced adaptive capacity to respond to potential impacts. Furthermore, many adaptation measures themselves carry uncertainties and risks. Future changes and effects are thus uncertain, yet forest managers, policymakers, scientists and other stakeholders must act. Strategies that build social and ecological resilience in the face of multiple interacting unknowns and surprises are needed. Adaptive management aims to collect and integrate knowledge about how a managed system is likely to respond to alternative management schemes and changing environmental conditions within a continuous decision process. There have been suggestions that adaptive management is not well suited to the large complex uncertainties associated with climate change and associated adaptation measures. However, more recently it has been suggested that adaptive management can handle such wicked problems, given adequate resources and a suitable breakdown of the targeted uncertainties. Here we test this hypothesis by evaluating how an adaptive management process could be used to manage the uncertainties and risks associated with securing resilient, biodiverse and productive forests in Sweden in the face of climate change. We

  17. Navigator program risk management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wessen, Randii R.; Padilla, Deborah A.

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, program risk management as applied to the Navigator Program: In Search of New Worlds will be discussed. The Navigator Program's goals are to learn how planetary systems form and to search for those worlds that could or do harbor life.

  18. Continuous Risk Management: An Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosenberg, Linda; Hammer, Theodore F.

    1999-01-01

    Software risk management is important because it helps avoid disasters, rework, and overkill, but more importantly because it stimulates win-win situations. The objectives of software risk management are to identify, address, and eliminate software risk items before they become threats to success or major sources of rework. In general, good project managers are also good managers of risk. It makes good business sense for all software development projects to incorporate risk management as part of project management. The Software Assurance Technology Center (SATC) at NASA GSFC has been tasked with the responsibility for developing and teaching a systems level course for risk management that provides information on how to implement risk management. The course was developed in conjunction with the Software Engineering Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, then tailored to the NASA systems community. This is an introductory tutorial to continuous risk management based on this course. The rational for continuous risk management and how it is incorporated into project management are discussed. The risk management structure of six functions is discussed in sufficient depth for managers to understand what is involved in risk management and how it is implemented. These functions include: (1) Identify the risks in a specific format; (2) Analyze the risk probability, impact/severity, and timeframe; (3) Plan the approach; (4) Track the risk through data compilation and analysis; (5) Control and monitor the risk; (6) Communicate and document the process and decisions.

  19. A holistic strategy for adaptive land management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Duniway, Michael C.; Pyke, David A.; Bestelmeyer, Brandon T.; Wills, Skye A.; Brown, Joel R.; Karl, Jason W.; Havstad, Kris M.

    2012-01-01

    Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management (Holling 1973; Walters and Holling 1990). Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adaptation of management until desired results are achieved (Brown and MacLeod 1996; Savory and Butterfield 1999). However, adaptive management is often criticized because very few projects ever complete more than one cycle, resulting in little adaptation and little knowledge gain (Lee 1999; Walters 2007). One significant criticism is that adaptive management is often used as a justification for undertaking actions with uncertain outcomes or as a surrogate for the development of specific, measurable indicators and monitoring programs (Lee 1999; Ruhl 2007).

  20. Climate adaptation: Cultural knowledge and local risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strauss, Sarah

    2015-07-01

    A focus on African American communities on the Eastern Shore of Maryland highlights the ways that local cultural knowledge differs from place to place, developing understanding of local climate risks and resources for adaptation.

  1. Risk management frameworks for human health and environmental risks.

    PubMed

    Jardine, Cindy; Hrudey, Steve; Shortreed, John; Craig, Lorraine; Krewski, Daniel; Furgal, Chris; McColl, Stephen

    2003-01-01

    (formative, process, and outcome evaluation), and be prepared to change the decision if new information becomes available. Comprehensive and sound principles are critical to providing structure and integrity to risk management frameworks. Guiding principles are intended to provide an ethical grounding for considering the many factors involved in risk management decision making. Ten principles are proposed to guide risk management decision making. The first four principles were adapted and modified from Hattis (1996) along with the addition of two more principles by Hrudey (2000). These have been supplemented by another four principles to make the 10 presented. The principles are based in fundamental ethical principles and values. These principles are intended to be aspirational rather than prescriptive--their application requires flexibility and practical judgement. Risk management is inherently a process in search of balance among competing interests and concerns. Each risk management decision will be "balancing act" of competing priorities, and trade-offs may sometimes have to be made between seemingly conflicting principles. The 10 decision-making principles, with the corresponding ethical principle in italics are: 1. Do more good than harm (beneficence, nonmalificence).- The ultimate goal of good risk management is to prevent or minimize risk, or to "do good" as much as possible. 2. Fair process of decision making (fairness, natural justice). - Risk management must be just, equitable, impartial, unbiased, dispassionate, and objective as far as possible given the circumstances of each situation. 3. Ensure an equitable distribution of risk (equity). - An equitable process of risk management would ensure fair outcomes and equal treatment of all concerned through an equal distribution of benefits and burdens (includes the concept of distributive justice, i.e., equal opportunities for all individuals). 4. Seek optimal use of limited risk management resources (utility

  2. Continuous Risk Management Course. Revised

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hammer, Theodore F.

    1999-01-01

    This document includes a course plan for Continuous Risk Management taught by the Software Assurance Technology Center along with the Continuous Risk Management Guidebook of the Software Engineering Institute of Carnegie Mellon University and a description of Continuous Risk Management at NASA.

  3. Manual of Educational Risk Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cody, Frank J.; Dise, John H., Jr.

    This is the first risk management publication for school administrators that attempts to be comprehensive by addressing all potential areas of risk to school districts and offering specific guidelines on how to manage those areas. Chapter 1 gives directions on how to use the manual. Chapter 2 contains a complete overview of risk management,…

  4. Risk management of nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Gwinn, Maureen R; Tran, Lang

    2010-01-01

    Nanotechnology has become the focus of a large amount of scientific, political, and financial interest. Limited information on the exposure to nanomaterials is available, with only a few occupational exposure studies having been performed. While laboratory animal studies on the biological effects of some nanomaterials have been published, no epidemiological studies have been reported to date. This lack of data on exposure and human health effects hinders risk assessment of these materials. As the use of nanomaterials increases rapidly, it is of vital importance that the risk assessment community understands the complexities of the issues surrounding the manufacture, use and disposal of nanomaterials, the potential of environmental and occupational exposure to human populations, as well as adverse health outcomes. For this to happen, it is in many ways necessary for the scientific community to also understand what questions risk assessors need to ask, and what research will best answer them. Risk management of nanomaterials requires more information as to the human and ecological effects of exposure to various nanomaterials. At this time, there are no specific regulations for nanomaterials, but a few efforts to include nanomaterials under existing environmental regulations have begun. The purpose of this article is to describe the potential regulations for nanomaterials, and the current issues related to the risk assessment of nanomaterials.

  5. Adaptive Management for a Turbulent Future

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, Craig R.; Fontaine, Joseph J.; Pope, Kevin L.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

    2011-01-01

    The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate

  6. Adaptive management for a turbulent future

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, C.R.; Fontaine, J.J.; Pope, K.L.; Garmestani, A.S.

    2011-01-01

    The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate

  7. Geochemical risk assessment of a case study of climate change adaptation policy: the managed realignment of an island in the Gironde Estuary (SW France)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivanovsky, Anastasia; Coynel, Alexandra; Kessaci, Kahina; Kervella, Stéphane; Curti, Cécile; Sottolichio, Aldo; Blanc, Gérard

    2014-05-01

    winter submersion events the studied soils would act as Cd sinks, adsorption being the dominating process. Coupling Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) and 2 multi-parameters probes (OBS and SMATCH) during 2 spring-tide cycles allowed estimating residual metal fluxes, suggesting that under these conditions the Ile Nouvelle acts as a metal sink receiving ~5 kg of Cd, 440 kg of Cu et 480 kg of As. A bathymetry mapping of the corridor (mechanical erosion of the de-poldering area) was used to estimate the annual sedimentary and metals fluxes exported due to its erosion. Annual fluxes related to corridor erosion, compared to fluxes into the Gironde Estuary are significant for Cu and As. With climate change adaptation policies, managed realignment is becoming more common in the future. Consequently, it will be necessary before this management policy to assess the geochemical risk of the re-inundation of formerly embanked soils.

  8. Managing Risks and Beyond

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-04-01

    situation occurring and its undesirable consequences          • Risk (Project Management Body of Knowledge  PMBOK ) – An uncertain even or condition that, if it...favorable or advantageous combination of circumstances – A chance for progress or advancement  • Opportunity ( PMBOK ) – A condition or situation favorable to...opportunities and reduce threats to project objectives      PMBOK – Includes Mitigation and Contingencies – Includes acceptance of the risk or issue

  9. Communicating Risk to Program Managers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shivers, C. Herbert

    2005-01-01

    Program Managers (PM) can protect program resources and improve chances of success by anticipating, understanding and managing risks. Understanding the range of potential risks helps one to avoid or manage the risks. A PM must choose which risks to accept to reduce fire fighting, must meet the expectations of stakeholders consistently, and avoid falling into costly "black holes" that may open. A good risk management process provides the PM more confidence to seize opportunities save money, meet schedule, even improve relationships with people important to the program. Evidence of managing risk and sound internal controls can mean better support from superiors for the program by building a trust and reputation from being on top of issues. Risk managers have an obligation to provide the PM with the best information possible to allow the benefits to be realized (Small Business Consortium, 2004). The Institute for Chartered Accountants in England and Wales sees very important benefits for companies in providing better information about what they do to assess and manage key business risks. Such information will: a) provide practical forward-looking information; b) reduce the cost of capital; c) encourage better risk management; and d) improve accountability for stewardship, investor protection and the usefulness of financial reporting. We are particularly convinced that enhanced risk reporting will help listed companies obtain capital at the lowest possible cost (The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England &Wales, June 2002). Risk managers can take a significant role in quantifying the success of their department and communicating those figures to executive (program) management levels while pushing for a broader risk management role. Overall, risk managers must show that risk management work matters in the most crucial place-the bottom line- as they prove risk management can be a profit center (Sullivan, 2004).

  10. Eastern European risk management

    SciTech Connect

    Honey, J.A. )

    1992-01-01

    Here the authors assess Eastern European risk management practices through the evaluation of the nuclear power plants in the region. This evaluation is limited to the Soviet-designed and -built VVER-440 pressurized water reactors (PWRs) that are currently operating in Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Russia, and the Ukraine and until recently operated at Greifswald in the former East Germany. This evaluation is based on the basic design of the plants, a safety evaluation of the Greifswald facility by representatives from the Federal Republic of Germany and personal visits by the author to Greifswald and Loviisa.

  11. Intelligent adversary risk analysis: a bioterrorism risk management model.

    PubMed

    Parnell, Gregory S; Smith, Christopher M; Moxley, Frederick I

    2010-01-01

    The tragic events of 9/11 and the concerns about the potential for a terrorist or hostile state attack with weapons of mass destruction have led to an increased emphasis on risk analysis for homeland security. Uncertain hazards (natural and engineering) have been successfully analyzed using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Unlike uncertain hazards, terrorists and hostile states are intelligent adversaries who can observe our vulnerabilities and dynamically adapt their plans and actions to achieve their objectives. This article compares uncertain hazard risk analysis with intelligent adversary risk analysis, describes the intelligent adversary risk analysis challenges, and presents a probabilistic defender-attacker-defender model to evaluate the baseline risk and the potential risk reduction provided by defender investments. The model includes defender decisions prior to an attack; attacker decisions during the attack; defender actions after an attack; and the uncertainties of attack implementation, detection, and consequences. The risk management model is demonstrated with an illustrative bioterrorism problem with notional data.

  12. Managing information technology security risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gilliam, David

    2003-01-01

    Information Technology (IT) Security Risk Management is a critical task for the organization to protect against the loss of confidentiality, integrity and availability of IT resources. As systems bgecome more complex and diverse and and attacks from intrusions and malicious content increase, it is becoming increasingly difficult to manage IT security risk. This paper describes a two-pronged approach in addressing IT security risk and risk management in the organization: 1) an institutional enterprise appraoch, and 2) a project life cycle approach.

  13. Risk sensitivity as an evolutionary adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hintze, Arend; Olson, Randal S.; Adami, Christoph; Hertwig, Ralph

    2015-02-01

    Risk aversion is a common behavior universal to humans and animals alike. Economists have traditionally defined risk preferences by the curvature of the utility function. Psychologists and behavioral economists also make use of concepts such as loss aversion and probability weighting to model risk aversion. Neurophysiological evidence suggests that loss aversion has its origins in relatively ancient neural circuitries (e.g., ventral striatum). Could there thus be an evolutionary origin to risk aversion? We study this question by evolving strategies that adapt to play the equivalent mean payoff gamble. We hypothesize that risk aversion in this gamble is beneficial as an adaptation to living in small groups, and find that a preference for risk averse strategies only evolves in small populations of less than 1,000 individuals, or in populations segmented into groups of 150 individuals or fewer - numbers thought to be comparable to what humans encountered in the past. We observe that risk aversion only evolves when the gamble is a rare event that has a large impact on the individual's fitness. As such, we suggest that rare, high-risk, high-payoff events such as mating and mate competition could have driven the evolution of risk averse behavior in humans living in small groups.

  14. Risk Management in Australian Science Education: A Model for Practice.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Forlin, Peter

    1995-01-01

    Provides a framework that incorporates the diverse elements of risk management in science education into a systematic process and is adaptable to changing circumstances. Appendix contains risk management checklist for management, laboratory and storage, extreme biological and chemical hazards, protective equipment, waste disposal, electrical…

  15. Risk-return relationship in a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Song, Kunyu; An, Kenan; Yang, Guang; Huang, Jiping

    2012-01-01

    For survival and development, autonomous agents in complex adaptive systems involving the human society must compete against or collaborate with others for sharing limited resources or wealth, by using different methods. One method is to invest, in order to obtain payoffs with risk. It is a common belief that investments with a positive risk-return relationship (namely, high risk high return and vice versa) are dominant over those with a negative risk-return relationship (i.e., high risk low return and vice versa) in the human society; the belief has a notable impact on daily investing activities of investors. Here we investigate the risk-return relationship in a model complex adaptive system, in order to study the effect of both market efficiency and closeness that exist in the human society and play an important role in helping to establish traditional finance/economics theories. We conduct a series of computer-aided human experiments, and also perform agent-based simulations and theoretical analysis to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that investments with a negative risk-return relationship have dominance over those with a positive risk-return relationship instead in such a complex adaptive systems. We formulate the dynamical process for the system's evolution, which helps to discover the different role of identical and heterogeneous preferences. This work might be valuable not only to complexity science, but also to finance and economics, to management and social science, and to physics.

  16. Preparing for Local Adaptation: Understanding Flood Risk Perceptions in Pittsburgh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klima, K.; Wong-Parodi, G.

    2015-12-01

    The City of Pittsburgh experiences numerous floods every year. Aging and insufficient infrastructure contribute to flash floods and to over 20 billion gallons of combined sewer overflows annually, contaminating Pittsburgh's streets, basements, and waterways. Climate change is expected to further exacerbate this problem by causing more intense and more frequent extreme precipitation events in Western Pennsylvania. For a stormwater adaptation plan to be implemented effectively, the City will need informed public support. One way to achieve public understanding and support is through effective communication of the risks, benefits, and uncertainties of local flooding hazards and adaptation methods. In order to develop these communications effectively, the city and its partners will need to know what knowledge and attitudes the residents of Pittsburgh already hold about flood risks. Here we seek to (1) identify Pittsburgh residents' knowledge level, risk perception and attitudes towards flooding and storm water management, and (2) pre-test communications meant to inform and empower Pittsburghers about flood risks and adaptation strategies. We conduct a city-wide survey of 10,000 Pittsburgh renters and homeowners from four life situations: high risk, above poverty; high-risk, below poverty; low risk, above poverty; and low-risk, below poverty. Mixed media recruitment strategies (online and paper-based solicitations guided/organized by community organizations) assist in reaching all subpopulations. Preliminary results suggest participants know what stormwater runoff is, but have a weak understanding of how stormwater interacts with natural and built systems. Furthermore, although participants have a good understanding of the difference between green and gray infrastructure, this does not translate into a change in their willingness to pay for green infrastructure adaptation. This suggests additional communications about flood risks and adaptation strategies.

  17. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    SciTech Connect

    John Collins; John M. Beck

    2011-11-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Risk Management System (RMS) is a database used to maintain the project risk register. The RMS also maps risk reduction activities to specific identified risks. Further functionality of the RMS includes mapping reactor suppliers Design Data Needs (DDNs) to risk reduction tasks and mapping Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRTs) to associated risks. This document outlines the basic instructions on how to use the RMS. This document constitutes Revision 1 of the NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk. It incorporates the latest enhancements to the RMS. The enhancements include six new custom views of risk data - Impact/Consequence, Tasks by Project Phase, Tasks by Status, Tasks by Project Phase/Status, Tasks by Impact/WBS, and Tasks by Phase/Impact/WBS.

  18. Risk management at Los Alamos National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Brooks, D.G.; Stack, D.W.

    1993-11-01

    Los Alamos National Laboratory has risk management programs at a number of administrative levels. Each line organization has responsibility for risk management for routine operations. The Facility Risk Management group (HS-3) is the Los Alamos organization with the primary responsibility for risk management including providing input and expertise to facilities and line managers in the management and documentation of ES&H hazards and risks associated with existing and new activities. One of the major contributions this group has made to laboratory risk management program is to develop and implement a hazard identification and classification methodology that is readily adaptable to continuously changing classification guidelines such as DOE-STD-1027. The increased emphasis on safety at Los Alamos has led to the formation of additional safety oversight organization such as the Integration and Coordination Office (ICO), which is responsible for prioritization of risk management activities. In the fall of 1991, nearly 170 DOE inspectors spent 6 weeks analyzing the environmental, safety, and health activities at Los Alamos. The result of this audit was a list of over 1000 findings, each indicating some deficiency in current Laboratory operations relative to DOE and other government regulation. The audit team`s findings were consolidated and ``action plans`` were developed to address the findings. This resulted in over 200 action plans with a total estimated cost of almost $1 billion. The Laboratory adopted a risk-based prioritization process to attempt to achieve as much risk reduction as possible with the available resources. This paper describes the risk based prioritization model that was developed.

  19. Improving Information Security Risk Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Singh, Anand

    2009-01-01

    manaOptimizing risk to information to protect the enterprise as well as to satisfy government and industry mandates is a core function of most information security departments. Risk management is the discipline that is focused on assessing, mitigating, monitoring and optimizing risks to information. Risk assessments and analyses are critical…

  20. Adaptive grazing management experiment: The new frontier of grazing management

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Adaptive Grazing Management experiment at the USDA-ARS Central Plains Experimental Range addresses important gaps in our current understanding of grazing management including: 1) lack of management-science partnerships to more fully understand the effect of management decisions, 2) need for mana...

  1. Challenges to sustainable risk management

    SciTech Connect

    Pinto, Ariel C., Aurora, Ashish, Hall, Dennis E.,

    2004-08-09

    This paper summarizes the intermediate lessons learned from the analyses of the risk management problems in three technological endeavors. These problems are: the absence of a structure for rewarding successful project risk management; the need for an ever-more accurate economic measure of risk; and the difficulty of transferring risks to contract-bound independent outsourcing entity. This paper also describes recent advancement towards providing answers to these challenges and future research endeavors in this field.

  2. 50 CFR 218.241 - Adaptive management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... Low Frequency Active (SURTASS LFA) Sonar § 218.241 Adaptive management. NMFS may modify (including...) Results from the Navy's monitoring from the previous year's operation of SURTASS LFA sonar. (b)...

  3. 50 CFR 218.241 - Adaptive management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... Low Frequency Active (SURTASS LFA) Sonar § 218.241 Adaptive management. NMFS may modify (including...) Results from the Navy's monitoring from the previous year's operation of SURTASS LFA sonar. (b)...

  4. Limitations of science and adaptive management

    SciTech Connect

    Narasimhan, T.N.

    2001-12-20

    Adaptive management consists in patterning human sustenancewithin the constraints of Earth and biological systems whose behavior isinherently uncertain and difficult to control. For successful adaptivemanagement, a mind-set recognizing the limitations of science isneeded.

  5. Rethinking Social Barriers to Effective Adaptive Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    West, Simon; Schultz, Lisen; Bekessy, Sarah

    2016-09-01

    Adaptive management is an approach to environmental management based on learning-by-doing, where complexity, uncertainty, and incomplete knowledge are acknowledged and management actions are treated as experiments. However, while adaptive management has received significant uptake in theory, it remains elusively difficult to enact in practice. Proponents have blamed social barriers and have called for social science contributions. We address this gap by adopting a qualitative approach to explore the development of an ecological monitoring program within an adaptive management framework in a public land management organization in Australia. We ask what practices are used to enact the monitoring program and how do they shape learning? We elicit a rich narrative through extensive interviews with a key individual, and analyze the narrative using thematic analysis. We discuss our results in relation to the concept of `knowledge work' and Westley's 2002) framework for interpreting the strategies of adaptive managers—`managing through, in, out and up.' We find that enacting the program is conditioned by distinct and sometimes competing logics—scientific logics prioritizing experimentation and learning, public logics emphasizing accountability and legitimacy, and corporate logics demanding efficiency and effectiveness. In this context, implementing adaptive management entails practices of translation to negotiate tensions between objective and situated knowledge, external experts and organizational staff, and collegiate and hierarchical norms. Our contribution embraces the `doing' of learning-by-doing and marks a shift from conceptualizing the social as an external barrier to adaptive management to be removed to an approach that situates adaptive management as social knowledge practice.

  6. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    SciTech Connect

    John Collins

    2009-09-01

    To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft® Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool’s design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

  7. Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bardsley, Douglas K.; Sweeney, Susan M.

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

  8. Knowledge management: an innovative risk management strategy.

    PubMed

    Zipperer, Lorri; Amori, Geri

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge management effectively lends itself to the enterprise risk process. The authors introduce the concept of knowledge management as a strategy to drive innovation and support risk management. They align this work with organizational efforts to improve patient safety and quality through the effective sharing of experience and lessons learned. The article closes with suggestions on how to develop a knowledge management initiative at an organization, who should be on the team, and how to sustain this effort and build the culture it requires to drive success.

  9. Continuous Risk Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sabelhaus, Phil

    2002-01-01

    Risk identification is an ongoing activity that takes place during the routine project work flow. Project activities such as programmatic and technical meetings, telecons, reviews, and other forms of communication often bring to light project risks. When this occurs, we record and analyze the risk on a Risk Information Sheet. This process helps the project team identify and cope with project risks throughout the life of the project.

  10. Everglades Collaborative Adaptive Management Program Progress

    EPA Science Inventory

    When the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) was authorized in 2000, adaptive management (AM) was recognized as a necessary tool to address uncertainty in achieving the broad goals and objectives for restoring a highly managed system. The Everglades covers18,000 squ...

  11. Managing Risk in Systems Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DePaoli, Marilyn M.; And Others

    Stanford University's use of a risk assessment methodology to improve the management of systems development projects is discussed. After examining the concepts of hazard, peril, and risk as they relate to the system development process, three ways to assess risk are covered: size, structure, and technology. The overall objective for Stanford…

  12. Feedback on flood risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreau, K.; Roumagnac, A.

    2009-09-01

    For several years, as floods were increasing in South of France, local communities felt deprive to assume their mission of protection and information of citizens, and were looking for assistance in flood management. In term of flood disaster, the fact is that physical protection is necessary but inevitably limited. Tools and structures of assistance to anticipation remain slightly developed. To manage repeated crisis, local authorities need to be able to base their policy against flood on prevention, warnings, post-crisis analysis and feedback from former experience. In this objective, after 3 years of test and improvement since 2003, the initiative Predict-Services was developed in South of France: it aims at helping communities and companies to face repeated flood crisis. The principle is to prepare emergency plans, to organize crisis management and reduce risks; to help and assist communities and companies during crisis to activate and adapt their emergency plans with enough of anticipation; and to analyse floods effects and improve emergency plans afterwards. With the help of Meteo France datas and experts, Predict services helps local communities and companies in decision making for flood management. In order to reduce risks, and to keep the benefits of such an initiative, local communities and companies have to maintain the awareness of risk of the citizens and employees. They also have to maintain their safety plans to keep them constantly operational. This is a part of the message relayed. Companies, Local communities, local government authorities and basin stakeholders are the decision makers. Companies and local communities have to involve themselves in the elaboration of safety plans. They are also completely involved in their activation that is their own responsability. This applies to other local government authorities, like districts one's and basin stakeholders, which participle in the financing community safety plans and adminitrative district which

  13. Adaptive Management Implementation: Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program Trinity River Restoration Program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wittler, R.; McBain, S.; Stalnaker, C.; Bizier, P.; DeBarry, P.

    2003-01-01

    Two adaptive management programs, the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) and the Trinity River Restoration Program (TRRP) are examined. In both cases, the focus is on managing the aquatic and riparian systems downstream of a large dam and water supply project. The status of the two programs, lessons learned by the program managers and the Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management (AEAM) evolution of the TRRP are discussed. The Trinity River illustrates some of the scientific uncertainities that a program faces and the ways the program evolves from concept through implementation.

  14. Risk Management Issues - An Aerospace Perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2011-01-01

    Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks--risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements.. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner, Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  15. Smart Grid Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abad Lopez, Carlos Adrian

    Current electricity infrastructure is being stressed from several directions -- high demand, unreliable supply, extreme weather conditions, accidents, among others. Infrastructure planners have, traditionally, focused on only the cost of the system; today, resilience and sustainability are increasingly becoming more important. In this dissertation, we develop computational tools for efficiently managing electricity resources to help create a more reliable and sustainable electrical grid. The tools we present in this work will help electric utilities coordinate demand to allow the smooth and large scale integration of renewable sources of energy into traditional grids, as well as provide infrastructure planners and operators in developing countries a framework for making informed planning and control decisions in the presence of uncertainty. Demand-side management is considered as the most viable solution for maintaining grid stability as generation from intermittent renewable sources increases. Demand-side management, particularly demand response (DR) programs that attempt to alter the energy consumption of customers either by using price-based incentives or up-front power interruption contracts, is more cost-effective and sustainable in addressing short-term supply-demand imbalances when compared with the alternative that involves increasing fossil fuel-based fast spinning reserves. An essential step in compensating participating customers and benchmarking the effectiveness of DR programs is to be able to independently detect the load reduction from observed meter data. Electric utilities implementing automated DR programs through direct load control switches are also interested in detecting the reduction in demand to efficiently pinpoint non-functioning devices to reduce maintenance costs. We develop sparse optimization methods for detecting a small change in the demand for electricity of a customer in response to a price change or signal from the utility

  16. Responding to bushfire risk: the need for transformative adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Saffron J.; Handmer, John

    2012-03-01

    The 2009 ‘Black Saturday’ bushfires led to 172 civilian deaths, and were proclaimed as one of Australia’s worst natural disasters. The Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission was set up in the wake of the fires to investigate the circumstances surrounding the death of each fatality. Here, results from an analysis undertaken for the Commission to examine the household preparedness policy ‘Prepare, Stay and Defend, or Leave Early’ (‘Stay or Go’), plus an examination of the Commission’s recommendations, are explored in the broader context of adaptation to bushfire. We find Victoria ill adapted to complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday due to changing settlement patterns and the known vulnerabilities of populations living in fire prone areas, and increasingly in the future due to the influence of climate change extending fire seasons and their severity. We suggest that uncertainty needs to be better acknowledged and managed in fire risk situations, and that the responsibility for fire preparedness should be more justly distributed. We suggest that a transformation in adaptation is required to effectively manage complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday, and provide four key ways in which transformation in bushfire preparedness could be achieved.

  17. Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Roskilde University hosted a November 2015 workshop on “Environmental Risk – Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World”. Thirty attendees from 9 countries developed consensus recommendations regarding: implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process involving both universal and site-, region-, or problem-specific protection goals; addressing societal issues; risk management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. We encourage both cross- and inter-disciplinary approaches to address 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and non-chemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk management process; 5) consider socio-economics and increase transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference con

  18. Being Prepared for Climate Change: A Workbook for Developing Risk-Based Adaptation Plans

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This workbook is a guide for environmental professionals to construct a climate change adaptation plan based on identifying risks and their consequences. It incorporates watershed management, vulnerability assessments and action planning.

  19. Risk management of sediment stress: a framework for sediment risk management research.

    PubMed

    Nietch, Christopher T; Borst, Michail; Schubauer-Berigan, Joseph P

    2005-08-01

    Research related to the ecological risk management of sediment stress in watersheds is placed under a common conceptual framework in order to help promote the timely advance of decision support methods for aquatic resource managers and watershed-level planning. The proposed risk management research program relies heavily on model development and verification, and should be applied under an adaptive management approach. The framework is centered on using best management practices (BMPs), including eco-restoration. It is designed to encourage the development of numerical representations of the performance of these management options, the integration of this information into sediment transport simulation models that account for uncertainty in both input and output, and would use strategic environmental monitoring to guide sediment-related risk management decisions for mixed land use watersheds. The goal of this project was to provide a sound scientific framework based on recent state of the practice in sediment-related risk assessment and management for research and regulatory activities. As a result, shortcomings in the extant data and measurement and modeling tools were identified that can help determine future research direction. The compilation of information is beneficial to the coordination of related work being conducted within and across entities responsible for managing watershed-scale risks to aquatic ecosystems.

  20. Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

    PubMed

    2012-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

  1. Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

  2. Assessing adaptation to the health risks of climate change: what guidance can existing frameworks provide?

    PubMed

    Füssel, Hans-Martin

    2008-02-01

    Climate change adaptation assessments aim at assisting policy-makers in reducing the health risks associated with climate change and variability. This paper identifies key characteristics of the climate-health relationship and of the adaptation decision problem that require consideration in climate change adaptation assessments. It then analyzes whether these characteristics are appropriately considered in existing guidelines for climate impact and adaptation assessment and in pertinent conceptual models from environmental epidemiology. The review finds three assessment guidelines based on a generalized risk management framework to be most useful for guiding adaptation assessments of human health. Since none of them adequately addresses all key challenges of the adaptation decision problem, actual adaptation assessments need to combine elements from different guidelines. Established conceptual models from environmental epidemiology are found to be of limited relevance for assessing and planning adaptation to climate change since the prevailing toxicological model of environmental health is not applicable to many climate-sensitive health risks.

  3. MASS SPECTROMETRY FOR RISK MANAGEMENT OF DRINKING WATER TREATMENT; II. DISINFECTION BY-PRODUCTS: HALOACETIC ACIDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk management of drinking water relies on quality analytical data. Analytical methodology can often be adapted from environmental monitoring sources. However, risk management sometimes presents special analytical challenges because data may be needed from a source for which n...

  4. Landowner response to wildfire risk: Adaptation, mitigation or doing nothing.

    PubMed

    Gan, Jianbang; Jarrett, Adam; Johnson Gaither, Cassandra

    2015-08-15

    Wildfire has brought about ecological, economic, and social consequences that engender human responses in many parts of the world. How to respond to wildfire risk is a common challenge across the globe particularly in areas where lands are controlled by many small private owners because effective wildfire prevention and protection require coordinated efforts of neighboring stakeholders. We explore (i) wildfire response strategies adopted by family forestland owners in the southern United States, one of the most important and productive forest regions in the world, through a landowner survey; and (ii) linkages between the responses of these landowners and their characteristics via multinomial logistic regression. We find that landowners used diverse strategies to respond to wildfire risk, with the most popular responses being "doing nothing" and combined adaptation and mitigation, followed by adaptation or mitigation alone. Landowners who had lost properties to wildfire, lived on their forestlands, had a forest management plan, and were better educated were more likely to proactively respond to wildfire risk. Our results indicate the possibility to enhance the effectiveness of collective action of wildfire risk response by private forestland owners and to coordinate wildfire response with forest conservation and certification efforts. These findings shed new light on engaging private landowners in wildfire management in the study region and beyond.

  5. 77 FR 74203 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-12-13

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  6. 75 FR 51284 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-19

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  7. 75 FR 10501 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-03-08

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  8. 77 FR 50155 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-08-20

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  9. 77 FR 30314 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-22

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  10. 76 FR 14044 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-03-15

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  11. 76 FR 23621 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-04-27

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  12. 75 FR 17158 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-04-05

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  13. 76 FR 34248 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-06-13

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  14. 77 FR 10766 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-02-23

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  15. 75 FR 70947 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-11-19

    ... Fish and Wildlife Service Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity...

  16. 75 FR 27814 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-05-18

    ...-W4] Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity River...

  17. Human Research Risk Management

    NASA Video Gallery

    Crew health and performance is critical to successful human exploration beyond low Earth orbit. The Human Research Program (HRP) investigates and mitigates the highest risks to human health and per...

  18. Adaptive management for soil ecosystem services

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Birge, Hannah E.; Bevans, Rebecca A.; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.; Baer, Sara G.; Wall, Diana H.

    2016-01-01

    Ecosystem services provided by soil include regulation of the atmosphere and climate, primary (including agricultural) production, waste processing, decomposition, nutrient conservation, water purification, erosion control, medical resources, pest control, and disease mitigation. The simultaneous production of these multiple services arises from complex interactions among diverse aboveground and belowground communities across multiple scales. When a system is mismanaged, non-linear and persistent losses in ecosystem services can arise. Adaptive management is an approach to management designed to reduce uncertainty as management proceeds. By developing alternative hypotheses, testing these hypotheses and adjusting management in response to outcomes, managers can probe dynamic mechanistic relationships among aboveground and belowground soil system components. In doing so, soil ecosystem services can be preserved and critical ecological thresholds avoided. Here, we present an adaptive management framework designed to reduce uncertainty surrounding the soil system, even when soil ecosystem services production is not the explicit management objective, so that managers can reach their management goals without undermining soil multifunctionality or contributing to an irreversible loss of soil ecosystem services.

  19. Risk analysis and management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, H. E.

    1990-01-01

    Present software development accomplishments are indicative of the emerging interest in and increasing efforts to provide risk assessment backbone tools in the manned spacecraft engineering community. There are indications that similar efforts are underway in the chemical processes industry and are probably being planned for other high risk ground base environments. It appears that complex flight systems intended for extended manned planetary exploration will drive this technology.

  20. Managing adaptively for multifunctionality in agricultural systems.

    PubMed

    Hodbod, Jennifer; Barreteau, Olivier; Allen, Craig; Magda, Danièle

    2016-12-01

    The critical importance of agricultural systems for food security and as a dominant global landcover requires management that considers the full dimensions of system functions at appropriate scales, i.e. multifunctionality. We propose that adaptive management is the most suitable management approach for such goals, given its ability to reduce uncertainty over time and support multiple objectives within a system, for multiple actors. As such, adaptive management may be the most appropriate method for sustainably intensifying production whilst increasing the quantity and quality of ecosystem services. However, the current assessment of performance of agricultural systems doesn't reward ecosystem service provision. Therefore, we present an overview of the ecosystem functions agricultural systems should and could provide, coupled with a revised definition for assessing the performance of agricultural systems from a multifunctional perspective that, when all satisfied, would create adaptive agricultural systems that can increase production whilst ensuring food security and the quantity and quality of ecosystem services. The outcome of this high level of performance is the capacity to respond to multiple shocks without collapse, equity and triple bottom line sustainability. Through the assessment of case studies, we find that alternatives to industrialized agricultural systems incorporate more functional goals, but that there are mixed findings as to whether these goals translate into positive measurable outcomes. We suggest that an adaptive management perspective would support the implementation of a systematic analysis of the social, ecological and economic trade-offs occurring within such systems, particularly between ecosystem services and functions, in order to provide suitable and comparable assessments. We also identify indicators to monitor performance at multiple scales in agricultural systems which can be used within an adaptive management framework to increase

  1. Adaptive governance, ecosystem management, and natural capital.

    PubMed

    Schultz, Lisen; Folke, Carl; Österblom, Henrik; Olsson, Per

    2015-06-16

    To gain insights into the effects of adaptive governance on natural capital, we compare three well-studied initiatives; a landscape in Southern Sweden, the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, and fisheries in the Southern Ocean. We assess changes in natural capital and ecosystem services related to these social-ecological governance approaches to ecosystem management and investigate their capacity to respond to change and new challenges. The adaptive governance initiatives are compared with other efforts aimed at conservation and sustainable use of natural capital: Natura 2000 in Europe, lobster fisheries in the Gulf of Maine, North America, and fisheries in Europe. In contrast to these efforts, we found that the adaptive governance cases developed capacity to perform ecosystem management, manage multiple ecosystem services, and monitor, communicate, and respond to ecosystem-wide changes at landscape and seascape levels with visible effects on natural capital. They enabled actors to collaborate across diverse interests, sectors, and institutional arrangements and detect opportunities and problems as they developed while nurturing adaptive capacity to deal with them. They all spanned local to international levels of decision making, thus representing multilevel governance systems for managing natural capital. As with any governance system, internal changes and external drivers of global impacts and demands will continue to challenge the long-term success of such initiatives.

  2. Adaptable Learning Assistant for Item Bank Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nuntiyagul, Atorn; Naruedomkul, Kanlaya; Cercone, Nick; Wongsawang, Damras

    2008-01-01

    We present PKIP, an adaptable learning assistant tool for managing question items in item banks. PKIP is not only able to automatically assist educational users to categorize the question items into predefined categories by their contents but also to correctly retrieve the items by specifying the category and/or the difficulty level. PKIP adapts…

  3. Adaptive governance, ecosystem management, and natural capital

    PubMed Central

    Schultz, Lisen; Folke, Carl; Österblom, Henrik; Olsson, Per

    2015-01-01

    To gain insights into the effects of adaptive governance on natural capital, we compare three well-studied initiatives; a landscape in Southern Sweden, the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, and fisheries in the Southern Ocean. We assess changes in natural capital and ecosystem services related to these social–ecological governance approaches to ecosystem management and investigate their capacity to respond to change and new challenges. The adaptive governance initiatives are compared with other efforts aimed at conservation and sustainable use of natural capital: Natura 2000 in Europe, lobster fisheries in the Gulf of Maine, North America, and fisheries in Europe. In contrast to these efforts, we found that the adaptive governance cases developed capacity to perform ecosystem management, manage multiple ecosystem services, and monitor, communicate, and respond to ecosystem-wide changes at landscape and seascape levels with visible effects on natural capital. They enabled actors to collaborate across diverse interests, sectors, and institutional arrangements and detect opportunities and problems as they developed while nurturing adaptive capacity to deal with them. They all spanned local to international levels of decision making, thus representing multilevel governance systems for managing natural capital. As with any governance system, internal changes and external drivers of global impacts and demands will continue to challenge the long-term success of such initiatives. PMID:26082542

  4. Adaptive management for drought on rangelands

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Adaptive management for drought on rangelands encompasses 1) enterprise flexibility – herd structure where the proportion of cow-calf pairs and yearlings provides plasticity to match forage availability with forage demand, with advantages to economic returns and increased resiliency of plant communi...

  5. Risk Management Concepts and Guidance

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-03-01

    Baillie, Allan S., "Management of Risk and Uncertainty," Research Management, Vol. 23, No. 2, March 1980, pp. 20-24. 34. Banash , Robert C., and...land, IL), 1976. 35. Banash , R.C., and Hurta, D.W., "Risk Analysis in Weapons Development," Proceedings of the 1972 U.S. Army Operations Research...Hwang, J.D., and Banash , R.C., "An Introduction to Decision/ Risk Analysis," (U.S. Army Armament Command), (Rock Island Arsenal), 1971 (LD 27240). 169

  6. LNG risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martino, P.

    1980-12-01

    A general methodology is presented for conducting an analysis of the various aspects of the hazards associated with the storage and transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) which should be considered during the planning stages of a typical LNG ship terminal. The procedure includes the performance of a hazards and system analysis of the proposed site, a probability analysis of accident scenarios and safety impacts, an analysis of the consequences of credible accidents such as tanker accidents, spills and fires, the assessment of risks and the design and evaluation of risk mitigation measures.

  7. Managing Multiple Risk Factors.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1998-09-01

    cardiovascular disease among black women can be better controlled through the use of a stress reduction intervention that reduces the sympathetic nervous...All participants will have high normal (130/80) or mild hypertension and at least two additional risk factors for cardiovascular disease (e.g

  8. Risk management in radiology departments

    PubMed Central

    Craciun, Horea; Mankad, Kshitij; Lynch, Jeremy

    2015-01-01

    Medical imaging and interventional radiology sustained prompt changes in the last few years, mainly as a result of technology breakthroughs, rise in workload, deficit in workforce and globalization. Risk is considered to be the chance or possibility of incurring loss or of a negative event happening that may cause injury to patients or medical practitioners. There are various causes of risks leading to harm and injury in radiology departments, and it is one of the objectives of this paper to scrutinize some of the causes. This will drive to consideration of some of the approaches that are used in managing risks in radiology. This paper aims at investigating risk management in radiology, and this will be achieved through a thorough assessment of the risk control measures that are used in the radiology department. It has been observed that the major focus of risk management in such medical setting is to reduce and eliminate harm and injury to patients through integration of various medical precautions. The field of Radiology is rapidly evolving due to technology advances and the globalization of healthcare. This ongoing development will have a great impact on the level of quality of care and service delivery. Thus, risk management in radiology is essential in protecting the patients, radiologists, and the medical organization in terms of capital and widening of the reputation of the medical organization with the patients. PMID:26120383

  9. Adaptive Resource Management Technology for Satellite Constellations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Welch, Lonnie; Tjaden, Brett; Pfarr, Barbara B.; Hennessy, Joseph F. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    This manuscript describes the Sensor Web Adaptive Resource Manager (SWARM) project. The primary focus of the project is on the design and prototyping of middleware for managing computing and network resources in a way that enables the information systems of satellite constellations to provide realtime performance within dynamic environments. The middleware has been prototyped, and it has been evaluated by employing it to manage a pool of distributed resources for the ITOS (Integrated Test and Operations System) satellite command and control software system. The design of the middleware is discussed and a summary of the evaluation effort is provided.

  10. Managing Corporate Risk through Better Knowledge Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neef, Dale

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: To explain how progressive companies are using a combination of knowledge and risk management (KRM) systems and techniques in order to help them to prevent, or respond most effectively to, ethical or reputation-damaging incidents. Design/methodology/approach: The paper explains KRM, develops a corporate integrity framework, and then…

  11. Feedback on flood risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreau, K.; Roumagnac, A.

    2009-09-01

    For several years, as floods were increasing in South of France, local communities felt deprive to assume their mission of protection and information of citizens, and were looking for assistance in flood management. In term of flood disaster, the fact is that physical protection is necessary but inevitably limited. Tools and structures of assistance to anticipation remain slightly developed. To manage repeated crisis, local authorities need to be able to base their policy against flood on prevention, warnings, post-crisis analysis and feedback from former experience. In this objective, after 3 years of test and improvement since 2003, the initiative Predict-Services was developped in South of France: it aims at helping communities and companies to face repeated flood crisis. The principle is to prepare emergency plans, to organize crisis management and reduce risks; to help and assist communities and companies during crisis to activate and adapt their emergency plans with enough of anticipation; and to analyse floods effects and improve emergency plans afterwards. In order to reduce risks, and to keep the benefits of such an initiative, local communities and companies have to maintain the awareness of risk of the citizens and employees. They also have to maintain their safety plans to keep them constantly operational. This is a part of the message relayed. Companies, Local communities, local government authorities and basin stakeholders are the decision makers. Companies and local communities have to involve themselves in the elaboration of safety plans. They are also completely involved in their activation that is their own responsability. This applies to other local government authorities, like districts one's and basin stakeholders, which participle in the financing community safety plans and adminitrative district which are responsible of the transmission of meteorological alert and of rescue actions. In the crossing of the géo-information stemming from the

  12. Software And Systems Engineering Risk Management

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-04-01

    Management System ISO 9000 Quality Management Vocabulary Environment ISO TC 207 ISO 14001 Environmental Management System IT Security JTC1/SC22 IS 27005...Software & Systems Engineering Standards Committee, IEEE Computer Society US TAG to ISO TMB Risk Management Working Group Systems and Software...guidelines • Risk management — Vocabulary • Risk managementRisk Assessment 4 Changed Risk definition Published RSKM Vocabulary, ISO Guide 73 2002

  13. Role of adaptive management for watershed councils.

    PubMed

    Habron, Geoffrey

    2003-01-01

    Recent findings in the Umpqua River Basin in southwestern Oregon illustrate a tension in the rise of both community-based and watershed-based approaches to aquatic resource management. While community-based institutions such as watershed councils offer relief from the government control landowners dislike, community-based approaches impinge on landowners' strong belief in independence and private property rights. Watershed councils do offer the local control landowners advocate; however, institutional success hinges on watershed councils' ability to reduce bureaucracy, foster productive discussion and understanding among stakeholders, and provide financial, technical, and coordination support. Yet, to accomplish these tasks current watershed councils rely on the fiscal and technical capital of the very governmental entities that landowners distrust. Adaptive management provides a basis for addressing the apparent tension by incorporating landowners' belief in environmental resilience and acceptance of experimentation that rejects "one size fits all solutions." Therefore community-based adaptive watershed management provides watershed councils a framework that balances landowners' independence and fear of government intrusion, acknowledges the benefits of community cooperation through watershed councils, and enables ecological assessment of landowner-preferred practices. Community-based adaptive management integrates social and ecological suitability to achieve conservation outcomes by providing landowners the flexibility to use a diverse set of conservation practices to achieve desired ecological outcomes, instead of imposing regulations or specific practices.

  14. Risk Management Programs for Defense Acquisition Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    The audit objective was to evaluate the effectiveness of risk management programs for Defense acquisition systems. Specifically, we determined whether DoD risk management policies and procedures for Defense acquisition systems were effectively implemented and what impact risk management programs bad on reducing program risks and costs. We also reviewed management controls as they applied to the audit objectives.

  15. Risk Management: Realistic Training to Standard

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2000-01-01

    analysis and execution and allows commands to manaqe risk. Risk management is, in reality, smart decision making. It focuses on mission accomplishment...make decisions that entail hazardous operations, risk management techniques are applicable to soldiers at all levels. Leaders must be trained to use... risk management skills and techniques to establish "situational" standards that effectively balance risk with operational objectives.

  16. Path dependencies and path change in complex fields of action: climate adaptation policies in Germany in the realm of flood risk management.

    PubMed

    Garrelts, Heiko; Lange, Hellmuth

    2011-03-01

    The spatial and temporal repercussions of climate change are of an extremely complex nature. Coping with climate change is, first and foremost, a challenge to political decision making and, considering the long-term effects of the climate system, to planning. However, there have never been more doubts that the political-administrative system is able to meet these requirements. Although much evidence has been put forward in favor of such skepticism, sometimes, it is dangerous to overstate the existing limits. Drawing on two case studies in the area of flood risk management in Germany, the article illustrates how and why significant path change came about. In both cases, the state proved to still being a pivotal actor, due to a number of functions that cannot be assumed by other actors. However, other actor groups-such as actors from science, the media, NGOs, and citizen groups-play a significant role as well by providing relevant expertise and influencing the public discourse, thus mobilizing significant political pressure.

  17. Risk management model of winter navigation operations.

    PubMed

    Valdez Banda, Osiris A; Goerlandt, Floris; Kuzmin, Vladimir; Kujala, Pentti; Montewka, Jakub

    2016-07-15

    The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish-Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible.

  18. Cyber Insurance - Managing Cyber Risk

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-04-01

    regulations with respect to data breaches. The Health Insur - ance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPPA) Breach Notification Rule 45 CFR §§ 164.400...I N S T I T U T E F O R D E F E N S E A N A L Y S E S Cyber Insurance – Managing Cyber Risk Laura A. Odell, Project Leader...license under the clause at DFARS 252.227-7013 (a)(16) [Jun 2013]. Cyber Insurance – Managing Cyber Risk Data breaches involving

  19. Obstetrics Hospitalists: Risk Management Implications.

    PubMed

    Veltman, Larry

    2015-09-01

    The concept of having an in-house obstetrician (serving as an obstetrics [OB] hospitalist) available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week provides a safety net for OB events that many need immediate intervention for a successful outcome. A key precept of risk management, that of loss prevention, fits perfectly with the addition of an OB hospitalist role in the perinatal department. Inherent in the role of OB hospitalists are the patient safety and risk management principles of improved communication, enhanced readiness, and immediate availability.

  20. Adaptable data management for systems biology investigations

    PubMed Central

    Boyle, John; Rovira, Hector; Cavnor, Chris; Burdick, David; Killcoyne, Sarah; Shmulevich, Ilya

    2009-01-01

    Background Within research each experiment is different, the focus changes and the data is generated from a continually evolving barrage of technologies. There is a continual introduction of new techniques whose usage ranges from in-house protocols through to high-throughput instrumentation. To support these requirements data management systems are needed that can be rapidly built and readily adapted for new usage. Results The adaptable data management system discussed is designed to support the seamless mining and analysis of biological experiment data that is commonly used in systems biology (e.g. ChIP-chip, gene expression, proteomics, imaging, flow cytometry). We use different content graphs to represent different views upon the data. These views are designed for different roles: equipment specific views are used to gather instrumentation information; data processing oriented views are provided to enable the rapid development of analysis applications; and research project specific views are used to organize information for individual research experiments. This management system allows for both the rapid introduction of new types of information and the evolution of the knowledge it represents. Conclusion Data management is an important aspect of any research enterprise. It is the foundation on which most applications are built, and must be easily extended to serve new functionality for new scientific areas. We have found that adopting a three-tier architecture for data management, built around distributed standardized content repositories, allows us to rapidly develop new applications to support a diverse user community. PMID:19265554

  1. Risk Management Considerations for Interoperable Acquisition

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-08-01

    the Scope of Interaction 4 Figure 3: IEEE Risk Management Process Model 11 Figure 4: Risk Management Process from AN/NZS 4360 11 Figure 5: Example...Identify risks • Analyze risks • Plan • Track • Control • Communicate10 | CMU/SEI-2006-TN-032 Figure 3: IEEE Risk Management Process Model Figure 4...statements made by Program-2? QUESTIONS ON PRACTICES What are the general implications for process models to achieve interoperable risk management

  2. Adaptive Management for Urban Watersheds: The Slavic Village Pilot Project

    EPA Science Inventory

    Adaptive management is an environmental management strategy that uses an iterative process of decision-making to reduce the uncertainty in environmental management via system monitoring. A central tenet of adaptive management is that management involves a learning process that ca...

  3. Overview of the Hanford risk management plan

    SciTech Connect

    Halverson, T.G.

    1998-03-26

    The Project Hanford Management Contract called for the enhancement of site-wide decision processes, and development of a Hanford Risk Management Plan to adopt or develop a risk management system for the Hanford Site. This Plan provides a consistent foundation for Site issues and addresses site-wide management of risks of all types. It supports the Department of Energy planning and sitewide decision making policy. Added to this requirement is a risk performance report to characterize the risk management accomplishments. This paper presents the development of risk management within the context of work planning and performance. Also discussed are four risk elements which add value to the context.

  4. Risk Management for Wilderness Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schimelpfenig, Tod

    This paper discusses subjective hazards in wilderness activities and suggests means of assessing and managing related risks. Wilderness educators conveniently group hazards into objective and subjective ones. Objective hazards such as rockfall, moving water, and weather, while not necessarily predictable, are visible and understandable. Subjective…

  5. 75 FR 34476 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-06-17

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation... Interior (Secretary) is renewing the charter for the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group. The purpose of the Adaptive Management Work Group is to advise and to provide recommendations to the...

  6. 71 FR 44042 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2006-08-03

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation... (Secretary) is renewing the charter for the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group. The purpose of the Adaptive Management Work Group is to advise and provide recommendations to the Secretary...

  7. 73 FR 45070 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2008-08-01

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation... Interior (Secretary) is renewing the charter for the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group. The purpose of the Adaptive Management Work Group is to advise and to provide recommendations to the...

  8. Airport Characterization for the Adaptation of Surface Congestion Management Approaches

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-02-01

    1 of 2 Airport Characterization for the Adaptation of Surface Congestion Management Approaches Melanie Sandberg, Tom Reynolds...TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2013 to 00-00-2013 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Airport Characterization for the Adaptation of Surface Congestion Management...1 Airport Characterization for the Adaptation of Surface Congestion Management Approaches* Melanie

  9. Adaptive Management as an Effective Strategy: Interdisciplinary Perceptions for Natural Resources Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dreiss, Lindsay M.; Hessenauer, Jan-Michael; Nathan, Lucas R.; O'Connor, Kelly M.; Liberati, Marjorie R.; Kloster, Danielle P.; Barclay, Janet R.; Vokoun, Jason C.; Morzillo, Anita T.

    2017-02-01

    Adaptive management is a well-established approach to managing natural resources, but there is little evidence demonstrating effectiveness of adaptive management over traditional management techniques. Peer-reviewed literature attempts to draw conclusions about adaptive management effectiveness using social perceptions, but those studies are largely restricted to employees of US federal organizations. To gain a more comprehensive insight into perceived adaptive management effectiveness, this study aimed to broaden the suite of disciplines, professional affiliations, and geographic backgrounds represented by both practitioners and scholars. A questionnaire contained a series of questions concerning factors that lead to or inhibit effective management, followed by another set of questions focused on adaptive management. Using a continuum representing strategies of both adaptive management and traditional management, respondents selected those strategies that they perceived as being effective. Overall, characteristics (i.e., strategies, stakeholders, and barriers) identified by respondents as contributing to effective management closely aligned with adaptive management. Responses were correlated to the type of adaptive management experience rather than an individual's discipline, occupational, or regional affiliation. In particular, perceptions of characteristics contributing to adaptive management effectiveness varied between respondents who identified as adaptive management scholars (i.e., no implementation experience) and adaptive management practitioners. Together, these results supported two concepts that make adaptive management effective: practitioners emphasized adaptive management's value as a long-term approach and scholars noted the importance of stakeholder involvement. Even so, more communication between practitioners and scholars regarding adaptive management effectiveness could promote interdisciplinary learning and problem solving for improved

  10. Adaptive management of natural resources-framework and issues

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, B.K.

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive management, an approach for simultaneously managing and learning about natural resources, has been around for several decades. Interest in adaptive decision making has grown steadily over that time, and by now many in natural resources conservation claim that adaptive management is the approach they use in meeting their resource management responsibilities. Yet there remains considerable ambiguity about what adaptive management actually is, and how it is to be implemented by practitioners. The objective of this paper is to present a framework and conditions for adaptive decision making, and discuss some important challenges in its application. Adaptive management is described as a two-phase process of deliberative and iterative phases, which are implemented sequentially over the timeframe of an application. Key elements, processes, and issues in adaptive decision making are highlighted in terms of this framework. Special emphasis is given to the question of geographic scale, the difficulties presented by non-stationarity, and organizational challenges in implementing adaptive management. ?? 2010.

  11. Risk management and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunreuther, Howard; Heal, Geoffrey; Allen, Myles; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Field, Christopher B.; Yohe, Gary

    2013-05-01

    The selection of climate policies should be an exercise in risk management reflecting the many relevant sources of uncertainty. Studies of climate change and its impacts rarely yield consensus on the distribution of exposure, vulnerability or possible outcomes. Hence policy analysis cannot effectively evaluate alternatives using standard approaches, such as expected utility theory and benefit-cost analysis. This Perspective highlights the value of robust decision-making tools designed for situations such as evaluating climate policies, where consensus on probability distributions is not available and stakeholders differ in their degree of risk tolerance. A broader risk-management approach enables a range of possible outcomes to be examined, as well as the uncertainty surrounding their likelihoods.

  12. Risk Management of NASA Projects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sarper, Hueseyin

    1997-01-01

    Various NASA Langley Research Center and other center projects were attempted for analysis to obtain historical data comparing pre-phase A study and the final outcome for each project. This attempt, however, was abandoned once it became clear that very little documentation was available. Next, extensive literature search was conducted on the role of risk and reliability concepts in project management. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques are being used with increasing regularity both in and outside of NASA. The value and the usage of PRA techniques were reviewed for large projects. It was found that both civilian and military branches of the space industry have traditionally refrained from using PRA, which was developed and expanded by nuclear industry. Although much has changed with the end of the cold war and the Challenger disaster, it was found that ingrained anti-PRA culture is hard to stop. Examples of skepticism against the use of risk management and assessment techniques were found both in the literature and in conversations with some technical staff. Program and project managers need to be convinced that the applicability and use of risk management and risk assessment techniques is much broader than just in the traditional safety-related areas of application. The time has come to begin to uniformly apply these techniques. The whole idea of risk-based system can maximize the 'return on investment' that the public demands. Also, it would be very useful if all project documents of NASA Langley Research Center, pre-phase A through final report, are carefully stored in a central repository preferably in electronic format.

  13. Risk Management and the Joint Military Commander.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1997-02-01

    risk assessment, is the process called risk management . Practiced repeatedly, personal and professional risk management can become ’common sense...war and military operations other than war (MOOTW). This report discusses the USA Five Step Process, from which users develop tools, techniques, and procedures for applying risk management in their areas of responsibility.

  14. Adaptive management of social-ecological systems: the path forward

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, Craig R.

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive management remains at the forefront of environmental management nearly 40 years after its original conception, largely because we have yet to develop other methodologies that offer the same promise. Despite the criticisms of adaptive management and the numerous failed attempts to implement it, adaptive management has yet to be replaced with a better alternative. The concept persists because it is simple, allows action despite uncertainty, and fosters learning. Moving forward, adaptive management of social-ecological systems provides policymakers, managers and scientists a powerful tool for managing for resilience in the face of uncertainty.

  15. 12 CFR 932.1 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... management policy or otherwise) to be used to manage its credit, market, and operations risks. ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk management. 932.1 Section 932.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS...

  16. 12 CFR 917.3 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk management. 917.3 Section 917.3 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD GOVERNANCE AND MANAGEMENT OF THE FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANKS POWERS AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF BANK BOARDS OF DIRECTORS AND SENIOR MANAGEMENT § 917.3 Risk management. (a) Risk...

  17. Hanford Tanks Initiative risk management guide

    SciTech Connect

    Schaus, P.S.

    1997-10-29

    This project-specific Risk Management Guide describes the general approach and process being used by the HTI Project to manage risk associated with execution of the HTI mission. It includes the initial identification of risk and the quantification of its likelihood and severity of its consequences. It further addresses the formulation of risk mitigation plans, periodic statusing of the Risk Management List, and risk closure.

  18. Hurricane risk management and climate information gatekeeping in southeast Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Treuer, G.; Bolson, J.

    2013-12-01

    Tropical storms provide fresh water necessary for healthy economies and health ecosystems. Hurricanes, massive tropical storms, threaten catastrophic flooding and wind damage. Sea level rise exacerbates flooding risks from rain and storm surge for coastal communities. Climate change adaptation measures to manage this risk must be implemented locally, but actions at other levels of government and by neighboring communities impact the options available to local municipalities. When working on adaptation local decision makers must balance multiple types of risk: physical or scientifically described risks, legal risks, and political risks. Generating usable or actionable climate science is a goal of the academic climate community. To do this we need to expand our analysis to include types of risk that constrain the use of objective science. Integrating physical, legal, and political risks is difficult. Each requires specific expertise and uses unique language. An opportunity exists to study how local decision makers manage all three on a daily basis and how their risk management impacts climate resilience for communities and ecosystems. South Florida's particular vulnerabilities make it an excellent case study. Besides physical vulnerabilities (low elevation, intense coastal development, frequent hurricanes, compromised ecosystems) it also has unique legal and political challenges. Federal and state property rights protections create legal risks for government action that restricts land use to promote climate adaptation. Also, a lack of cases that deal with climate change creates uncertainty about the nature of these legal risks. Politically Florida is divided ideologically and geographically. The regions in the southeast which are most vulnerable are predominantly Hispanic and under-represented at the state level, where leadership on climate change is functionally nonexistent. It is conventional wisdom amongst water managers in Florida that little climate adaptation

  19. Managing risks and hazardous in industrial operations

    SciTech Connect

    Almaula, S.C.

    1996-12-31

    The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate that it makes good business sense to identify risks and hazards of an operation and take appropriate steps to manage them effectively. Developing and implementing an effective risk and hazard management plan also contibutes to other industry requirements and standards. Development of a risk management system, key elements of a risk management plan, and hazards and risk analysis methods are outlined. Comparing potential risk to the cost of prevention is also discussed. It is estimated that the cost of developing and preparing the first risk management plan varies between $50,000 to $200,000. 3 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  20. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, locations that may be unusually buffered from climate change effects so as to increase persistence of valued resources. Here we distinguish between paleoecological and contemporary viewpoints, characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia, summarize the process of identifying and mapping them, and delineate how refugia can fit into the existing framework of natural resource management. We also suggest three primary courses of action at these sites: prioritization, protection, and propagation. Although not a panacea, managing climate change refugia can be an important adaptation option for conserving valuable resources in the face of ongoing and future climate change. “In a nutshell” (100 words) • Climate change refugia are defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change, enabling persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources. • Refugia can be incorporated as key components of a climate adaptation strategy because their prioritization by management may enable their associated resources to persist locally and eventually spread to future suitable habitat. • Steps for

  1. Feasibility of Adapting Multisystemic Therapy to Improve Illness Management Behaviors and Reduce Asthma Morbidity in High Risk African American Youth: A Case Series

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Naar-King, Sylvie; Ellis, Deborah; Kolmodin, Karen; Cunningham, Phillippe; Secord, Elizabeth

    2009-01-01

    African-American adolescents have the highest rates of asthma morbidity and mortality, yet there are few successful behavioral interventions to improve illness management for this group. Mental health providers have an opportunity to expand their services and impact by targeting adolescents with poor asthma management. We describe the adaptation…

  2. Analysis of Affordance, Time, and Adaptation in the Assessment of Industrial Control System Cybersecurity Risk.

    PubMed

    Busby, J S; Green, B; Hutchison, D

    2017-01-17

    Industrial control systems increasingly use standard communication protocols and are increasingly connected to public networks-creating substantial cybersecurity risks, especially when used in critical infrastructures such as electricity and water distribution systems. Methods of assessing risk in such systems have recognized for some time the way in which the strategies of potential adversaries and risk managers interact in defining the risk to which such systems are exposed. But it is also important to consider the adaptations of the systems' operators and other legitimate users to risk controls, adaptations that often appear to undermine these controls, or shift the risk from one part of a system to another. Unlike the case with adversarial risk analysis, the adaptations of system users are typically orthogonal to the objective of minimizing or maximizing risk in the system. We argue that this need to analyze potential adaptations to risk controls is true for risk problems more generally, and we develop a framework for incorporating such adaptations into an assessment process. The method is based on the principle of affordances, and we show how this can be incorporated in an iterative procedure based on raising the minimum period of risk materialization above some threshold. We apply the method in a case study of a small European utility provider and discuss the observations arising from this.

  3. A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management

    DOE PAGES

    White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

    2014-01-01

    This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical andmore » cost-effective.« less

  4. A phased approach to induced seismicity risk management

    SciTech Connect

    White, Joshua A.; Foxall, William

    2014-01-01

    This work describes strategies for assessing and managing induced seismicity risk during each phase of a carbon storage project. We consider both nuisance and damage potential from induced earthquakes, as well as the indirect risk of enhancing fault leakage pathways. A phased approach to seismicity management is proposed, in which operations are continuously adapted based on available information and an on-going estimate of risk. At each project stage, specific recommendations are made for (a) monitoring and characterization, (b) modeling and analysis, and (c) site operations. The resulting methodology can help lower seismic risk while ensuring site operations remain practical and cost-effective.

  5. [Risk management and patient safety].

    PubMed

    Lessing, C

    2009-06-01

    Risk management and patient safety are of indisputable importance for the quality of health care. At the same time they confront all professional groups in the health system with high demands. The Action Alliance for Patient Safety inc. wants to demonstrate ways in which measures for avoiding errors and improving safety can reach the healthcare practice. Interdisciplinary cooperation and the availability of mutually developed materials are the maxims of the work of the society.

  6. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Morelli, Toni; Jackson, Stephen T.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

  7. Adaptive momentum management for large space structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hahn, E.

    1987-01-01

    Momentum management is discussed for a Large Space Structure (LSS) with the structure selected configuration being the Initial Orbital Configuration (IOC) of the dual keel space station. The external forces considered were gravity gradient and aerodynamic torques. The goal of the momentum management scheme developed is to remove the bias components of the external torques and center the cyclic components of the stored angular momentum. The scheme investigated is adaptive to uncertainties of the inertia tensor and requires only approximate knowledge of principle moments of inertia. Computational requirements are minimal and should present no implementation problem in a flight type computer and the method proposed is shown to be effective in the presence of attitude control bandwidths as low as .01 radian/sec.

  8. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  9. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    PubMed

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

  10. Risk Management On-the-Run.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pope, Daniel C.

    1985-01-01

    Presents the options available in risk management insurance and group health insurance programs, while outlining recent changes in the industry and their effects on school risk management programs. (MD)

  11. Risk Management Practices and Accounting Requirements.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cheng, Rita Hartung; Yahr, Robert B.

    1989-01-01

    Reviews current school district risk management practices and the related accounting requirements. Summarizes the Governmental Accounting Standards Board's proposed accounting standards and the impact of these on school districts' risk management practices and on their financial statements. (11 references) (MLF)

  12. An Extensible Information Grid for Risk Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maluf, David A.; Bell, David G.

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes recent work on developing an extensible information grid for risk management at NASA - a RISK INFORMATION GRID. This grid is being developed by integrating information grid technology with risk management processes for a variety of risk related applications. To date, RISK GRID applications are being developed for three main NASA processes: risk management - a closed-loop iterative process for explicit risk management, program/project management - a proactive process that includes risk management, and mishap management - a feedback loop for learning from historical risks that escaped other processes. This is enabled through an architecture involving an extensible database, structuring information with XML, schemaless mapping of XML, and secure server-mediated communication using standard protocols.

  13. You can manage construction risks.

    PubMed

    Macomber, J D

    1989-01-01

    A construction project is about the riskiest thing any company does in the normal course of business. Hundreds of things can go wrong, dozens will. But officers who analyze and manage every other sort of risk often ignore construction risk as if it were uncontrollable. The truth is, it can't be eliminated, but it can be controlled. Construction is not a product but a confusing and often exasperating service. A group of experts--architects, bankers, consultants, contractors, engineers, users, city officials--coordinate the activities of an army of suppliers, laborers, designers, subcontractors, and inspectors. The job of the company officers is to coordinate the coordinators; to make prompt, informed decisions as the work progresses; to take and retain project responsibility at the highest level; and to analyze and manage the entire process in the following seven stages: 1. Study the types and phases of construction risk. 2. Assess the risks of the company's particular project. 3. Match these risks with the in-house capabilities. 4. Define a building strategy. 5. Pick the right kind of contract. 6. Choose a contractor. 7. Monitor construction. Analyzing risk is largely a matter of assessing the complexity of the building, the site, the financing, the schedule, and the special uses and problems of the project. This analysis then drives the choice of contract and contractor. The range runs from low-cost providers, lump sum contracts and very little teamwork at one end of the spectrum to highly differentiated construction companies, guaranteed-maximum-prince contracts, and consultative coordination at the other.

  14. Risk Management for Human Support Technology Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    jones, Harry

    2005-01-01

    NASA requires continuous risk management for all programs and projects. The risk management process identifies risks, analyzes their impact, prioritizes them, develops and carries out plans to mitigate or accept them, tracks risks and mitigation plans, and communicates and documents risk information. Project risk management is driven by the project goal and is performed by the entire team. Risk management begins early in the formulation phase with initial risk identification and development of a risk management plan and continues throughout the project life cycle. This paper describes the risk management approach that is suggested for use in NASA's Human Support Technology Development. The first step in risk management is to identify the detailed technical and programmatic risks specific to a project. Each individual risk should be described in detail. The identified risks are summarized in a complete risk list. Risk analysis provides estimates of the likelihood and the qualitative impact of a risk. The likelihood and impact of the risk are used to define its priority location in the risk matrix. The approaches for responding to risk are either to mitigate it by eliminating or reducing the effect or likelihood of a risk, to accept it with a documented rationale and contingency plan, or to research or monitor the risk, The Human Support Technology Development program includes many projects with independently achievable goals. Each project must do independent risk management, considering all its risks together and trading them against performance, budget, and schedule. Since the program can succeed even if some projects fail, the program risk has a complex dependence on the individual project risks.

  15. 12 CFR 932.1 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Risk management. 932.1 Section 932.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.1 Risk management. Before its new capital plan may...

  16. Managing Risk Assessment in Science Departments.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Forlin, Peter; Forlin, Chris

    1997-01-01

    Describes a health-and-safety risk-management audit in four Queensland, Australia high schools. One major outcome of this research project is the development of a comprehensive risk-management policy in compliance with the law. Other outcomes include the preparation of a professional-development package in risk-management policy for use as a…

  17. Risk Management in Student Personnel Administration.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hammond, Edward H.; Hagan, Charles F.

    1979-01-01

    A risk management plan is an effective tool for postsecondary institutions to utilize in organizing management of both personal and institutional liability. Important considerations involve criminal and civil liabilities, causes of risk, and integral elements of a good risk management plan. (NRB)

  18. 12 CFR 917.3 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... all times a risk management policy that addresses the Bank's exposure to credit risk, market risk... specific target ratios of total capital and permanent capital to total assets at which the Bank intends to operate. The target operating capital-to-assets ratios to be specified in the risk management policy...

  19. 42 CFR 441.476 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Risk management. 441.476 Section 441.476 Public... Self-Directed Personal Assistance Services Program § 441.476 Risk management. (a) The State must... plan for how identified risks will be mitigated. (d) The State must ensure that the risk...

  20. 42 CFR 441.476 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Risk management. 441.476 Section 441.476 Public... Self-Directed Personal Assistance Services Program § 441.476 Risk management. (a) The State must... plan for how identified risks will be mitigated. (d) The State must ensure that the risk...

  1. 42 CFR 441.476 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... Self-Directed Personal Assistance Services Program § 441.476 Risk management. (a) The State must specify the risk assessment methods it uses to identify potential risks to the participant. (b) The State... 42 Public Health 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Risk management. 441.476 Section 441.476...

  2. 12 CFR 932.1 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... requirement, and for the risk assessment procedures and controls (whether established as part of its risk... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Risk management. 932.1 Section 932.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS...

  3. 12 CFR 932.1 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... requirement, and for the risk assessment procedures and controls (whether established as part of its risk... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Risk management. 932.1 Section 932.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS...

  4. 12 CFR 932.1 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... requirement, and for the risk assessment procedures and controls (whether established as part of its risk... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Risk management. 932.1 Section 932.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK RISK MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL STANDARDS...

  5. 42 CFR 441.476 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... Self-Directed Personal Assistance Services Program § 441.476 Risk management. (a) The State must specify the risk assessment methods it uses to identify potential risks to the participant. (b) The State... 42 Public Health 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Risk management. 441.476 Section 441.476...

  6. 12 CFR 917.3 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... risk, including contingency plans where appropriate. (c) Risk assessment. The senior management of each Bank shall perform, at least annually, a risk assessment that is reasonably designed to identify and... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Risk management. 917.3 Section 917.3 Banks...

  7. 12 CFR 917.3 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... risk, including contingency plans where appropriate. (c) Risk assessment. The senior management of each Bank shall perform, at least annually, a risk assessment that is reasonably designed to identify and... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Risk management. 917.3 Section 917.3 Banks...

  8. 42 CFR 441.476 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... Self-Directed Personal Assistance Services Program § 441.476 Risk management. (a) The State must specify the risk assessment methods it uses to identify potential risks to the participant. (b) The State... 42 Public Health 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Risk management. 441.476 Section 441.476...

  9. 12 CFR 917.3 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... risk, including contingency plans where appropriate. (c) Risk assessment. The senior management of each Bank shall perform, at least annually, a risk assessment that is reasonably designed to identify and... 12 Banks and Banking 8 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Risk management. 917.3 Section 917.3 Banks...

  10. Public access management as an adaptive wildlife management tool

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ouren, Douglas S.; Watts, Raymond D.

    2005-01-01

    One key issue in the Black Mesa – Black Canyon area is the interaction between motorized vehicles and. The working hypothesis for this study is that early season elk movement onto private lands and the National Park is precipitated by increased use of Off Highway Vehicles (OHV’s). Data on intensity of motorized use is extremely limited. In this study, we monitor intensity of motorized vehicle and trail use on elk movements and habitat usage and analyze interactions. If management agencies decide to alter accessibility, we will monitor wildlife responses to changes in the human-use regime. This provides a unique opportunity for adaptive management experimentation based on coordinated research and monitoring. The products from this project will provide natural resource managers across the nation with tools and information to better meet these resource challenges.

  11. Risk Management in High Adventure Outdoor Pursuits.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cinnamon, Jerry

    This paper outlines management guidelines for outdoor adventure pursuits based on analysis of accident case studies in the literature. Managing risk, to a large degree, involves managing human errors related to natural environmental hazards. The knowledge needed to manage risk may be gained through personal experience (the most dangerous way),…

  12. Adapting inland fisheries management to a changing climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Paukert, Craig; Glazer, Bob A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Irwin, Brian J.; Jacobson, Peter C.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Whitney, James E.; Lynch, Abigail J.

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource decision makers are challenged to adapt management to a changing climate while balancing short-term management goals with long-term changes in aquatic systems. Adaptation will require developing resilient ecosystems and resilient management systems. Decision makers already have tools to develop or ensure resilient aquatic systems and fisheries such as managing harvest and riparian zones. Because fisheries management often interacts with multiple stakeholders, adaptation strategies involving fisheries managers and other partners focused on land use, policy, and human systems, coupled with long-term monitoring, are necessary for resilient systems. We show how agencies and organizations are adapting to a changing climate in Minnesota and Ontario lakes and Montana streams. We also present how the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission created a management structure to develop adaptation strategies. These examples demonstrate how organizations and agencies can cope with climate change effects on fishes and fisheries through creating resilient management and ecological systems.

  13. 62 FR 66384 - Glen Canyon Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    1997-12-18

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, DOI. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. ] SUMMARY: The Glen Canyon Adaptive Management Work Group (AMWG) will... Work Group (1999 program, management objectives, approach to beach/habitat building flow...

  14. Adaptive Management of Social-Ecological Systems: The Path Forward

    EPA Science Inventory

    Adaptive management remains at the forefront of environmental management nearly 40 years after its original conception, largely because we have yet to develop other methodologies that offer the same promise. Despite the criticisms of adaptive management and the numerous failed at...

  15. Calysto: Risk Management for Commercial Manned Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dillaman, Gary

    2012-01-01

    The Calysto: Risk Management for Commercial Manned Spaceflight study analyzes risk management in large enterprises and how to effectively communicate risks across organizations. The Calysto Risk Management tool developed by NASA's Kennedy Space Center's SharePoint team is used and referenced throughout the study. Calysto is a web-base tool built on Microsoft's SharePoint platform. The risk management process at NASA is examined and incorporated in the study. Using risk management standards from industry and specific organizations at the Kennedy Space Center, three methods of communicating and elevating risk are examined. Each method describes details of the effectiveness and plausibility of using the method in the Calysto Risk Management Tool. At the end of the study suggestions are made for future renditions of Calysto.

  16. Managing uncertainty about food risks - Consumer use of food labelling.

    PubMed

    Tonkin, Emma; Coveney, John; Meyer, Samantha B; Wilson, Annabelle M; Webb, Trevor

    2016-12-01

    General consumer knowledge of and engagement with the production of food has declined resulting in increasing consumer uncertainty about, and sensitivity to, food risks. Emphasis is therefore placed on providing information for consumers to reduce information asymmetry regarding food risks, particularly through food labelling. This study examines the role of food labelling in influencing consumer perceptions of food risks. In-depth, 1-h interviews were conducted with 24 Australian consumers. Participants were recruited based on an a priori defined food safety risk scale, and to achieve a diversity of demographic characteristics. The methodological approach used, adaptive theory, was chosen to enable a constant interweaving of theoretical understandings and empirical data throughout the study. Participants discussed perceiving both traditional (food spoilage/microbial contamination) and modern (social issues, pesticide and 'chemical' contamination) risks as present in the food system. Food labelling was a symbol of the food system having managed traditional risks, and a tool for consumers to personally manage perceived modern risks. However, labelling also raised awareness of modern risks not previously considered. The consumer framing of risk presented demonstrates the need for more meaningful consumer engagement in policy decision making to ensure risk communication and management meet public expectations. This research innovatively identifies food labelling as both a symbol of, and a tool for, the management of perceived risks for consumers. Therefore it is imperative that food system actors ensure the authenticity and trustworthiness of all aspects of food labelling, not only those related to food safety.

  17. Acquisition Program Risk Management: Does the Department of Defense Risk Management Practices Guide Provide an Effective Risk Tool for Program Managers in Today’s Acquisition Environment?

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-05-01

    Management Definition ........................................................................................... 32 Table 16. Risk Management Tracking...Other (please specify) 5 Table 15. Risk Management Definition Question 7: Does your Program Office or Risk Management IPT track risks for cost...aligned to collect information on program risk definition. Question 6 was designed to collect information on risk management definition . Participants

  18. Commercializing fuel cells: managing risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bos, Peter B.

    Commercialization of fuel cells, like any other product, entails both financial and technical risks. Most of the fuel cell literature has focussed upon technical risks, however, the most significant risks during commercialization may well be associated with the financial funding requirements of this process. Successful commercialization requires an integrated management of these risks. Like any developing technology, fuel cells face the typical 'Catch-22' of commercialization: "to enter the market, the production costs must come down, however, to lower these costs, the cumulative production must be greatly increased, i.e. significant market penetration must occur". Unless explicit steps are taken to address this dilemma, fuel cell commercialization will remain slow and require large subsidies for market entry. To successfully address this commercialization dilemma, it is necessary to follow a market-driven commercialization strategy that identifies high-value entry markets while minimizing the financial and technical risks of market entry. The financial and technical risks of fuel cell commercialization are minimized, both for vendors and end-users, with the initial market entry of small-scale systems into high-value stationary applications. Small-scale systems, in the order of 1-40 kW, benefit from economies of production — as opposed to economies to scale — to attain rapid cost reductions from production learning and continuous technological innovation. These capital costs reductions will accelerate their commercialization through market pull as the fuel cell systems become progressively more viable, starting with various high-value stationary and, eventually, for high-volume mobile applications. To facilitate market penetration via market pull, fuel cell systems must meet market-derived economic and technical specifications and be compatible with existing market and fuels infrastructures. Compatibility with the fuels infrastructure is facilitated by a

  19. Sustainable nanotechnology decision support system: bridging risk management, sustainable innovation and risk governance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subramanian, Vrishali; Semenzin, Elena; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Malsch, Ineke; McAlea, Eamonn; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin; van Harmelen, Toon; Ligthart, Tom; Linkov, Igor; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The significant uncertainties associated with the (eco)toxicological risks of engineered nanomaterials pose challenges to the development of nano-enabled products toward greatest possible societal benefit. This paper argues for the use of risk governance approaches to manage nanotechnology risks and sustainability, and considers the links between these concepts. Further, seven risk assessment and management criteria relevant to risk governance are defined: (a) life cycle thinking, (b) triple bottom line, (c) inclusion of stakeholders, (d) risk management, (e) benefit-risk assessment, (f) consideration of uncertainty, and (g) adaptive response. These criteria are used to compare five well-developed nanotechnology frameworks: International Risk Governance Council framework, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment, Streaming Life Cycle Risk Assessment, Certifiable Nanospecific Risk Management and Monitoring System and LICARA NanoSCAN. A Sustainable Nanotechnology Decision Support System (SUNDS) is proposed to better address current nanotechnology risk assessment and management needs, and makes. Stakeholder needs were solicited for further SUNDS enhancement through a stakeholder workshop that included representatives from regulatory, industry and insurance sectors. Workshop participants expressed the need for the wider adoption of sustainability assessment methods and tools for designing greener nanomaterials.

  20. [The relevance of clinical risk management].

    PubMed

    Gulino, Matteo; Vergallo, Gianluca Montanari; Frati, Paola

    2011-01-01

    Medical activity includes a risk of possible injury or complications for the patients, that should drive the Health Care Institutions to introduce and/ or improve clinical Risk management instruments. Although Italy is still lacking a National project of Clinical Risk Management, a number of efforts have been made by different Italian Regions to introduce instruments of risk management. In addition, most of National Health Care Institutions include actually a Department specifically in charge to manage the clinical risk. Despite the practical difficulties, the results obtained until now suggest that the risk management may represent a useful instrument to contribute to the reduction of errors in clinical conduct. Indeed, the introduction of adequate instruments of prevention and management of clinical risk may help to ameliorate the quality of health care Institution services.

  1. Identifying risks in the realm of enterprise risk management.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Roberta

    2016-01-01

    An enterprise risk management (ERM) discipline is comprehensive and organization-wide. The effectiveness of ERM is governed in part by the strength and breadth of its practices and processes. An essential element in decision making is a thorough process by which organizational risks and value opportunities can be identified. This article will offer identification techniques that go beyond those used in traditional risk management programs and demonstrate how these techniques can be used to identify risks and opportunity in the ERM environment.

  2. Lessons Learned from the Everglades Collaborative Adaptive Management Program

    EPA Science Inventory

    Recent technical papers explore whether adaptive management (AM) is useful for environmental management and restoration efforts and discuss the many challenges to overcome for successful implementation, especially for large-scale restoration programs (McLain and Lee 1996; Levine ...

  3. A Risk Management Architecture for Emergency Integrated Aircraft Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McGlynn, Gregory E.; Litt, Jonathan S.; Lemon, Kimberly A.; Csank, Jeffrey T.

    2011-01-01

    Enhanced engine operation--operation that is beyond normal limits--has the potential to improve the adaptability and safety of aircraft in emergency situations. Intelligent use of enhanced engine operation to improve the handling qualities of the aircraft requires sophisticated risk estimation techniques and a risk management system that spans the flight and propulsion controllers. In this paper, an architecture that weighs the risks of the emergency and of possible engine performance enhancements to reduce overall risk to the aircraft is described. Two examples of emergency situations are presented to demonstrate the interaction between the flight and propulsion controllers to facilitate the enhanced operation.

  4. 17 CFR 39.13 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Risk management. 39.13 Section... ORGANIZATIONS Compliance with Core Principles § 39.13 Risk management. (a) General. A derivatives clearing..., procedures, and controls, approved by its board of directors, which establish an appropriate risk...

  5. 17 CFR 39.13 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Risk management. 39.13 Section... ORGANIZATIONS Compliance with Core Principles § 39.13 Risk management. (a) General. A derivatives clearing..., procedures, and controls, approved by its board of directors, which establish an appropriate risk...

  6. 17 CFR 39.13 - Risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Risk management. 39.13 Section... ORGANIZATIONS Compliance with Core Principles § 39.13 Risk management. (a) General. A derivatives clearing..., procedures, and controls, approved by its board of directors, which establish an appropriate risk...

  7. Risk Management (Is Not) for Dummies

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-02-01

    FEB 2005 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2005 to 00-00-2005 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Risk Management (Is Not) for Dummies 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER...recorded for each Open Forum Risk Management (Is Not) For Dummies February 2005 www.stsc.hill.af.mil 29 risk? Who will use the data and how? Now

  8. Adaptive Delta Management: cultural aspects of dealing with uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timmermans, Jos; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Hermans, Leon; Kwakkel, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Deltas are generally recognized as vulnerable to climate change and therefore a salient topic in adaptation science. Deltas are also highly dynamic systems viewed from physical (erosion, sedimentation, subsidence), social (demographic), economic (trade), infrastructures (transport, energy, metropolization) and cultural (multi-ethnic) perspectives. This multi-faceted dynamic character of delta areas warrants the emergence of a branch of applied adaptation science, Adaptive Delta Management, which explicitly focuses on climate adaptation of such highly dynamic and deeply uncertain systems. The application of Adaptive Delta Management in the Dutch Delta Program and its active international dissemination by Dutch professionals results in the rapid dissemination of Adaptive Delta Management to deltas worldwide. This global dissemination raises concerns among professionals in delta management on its applicability in deltas with cultural conditions and historical developments quite different from those found in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom where the practices now labelled as Adaptive Delta Management first emerged. This research develops an approach and gives a first analysis of the interaction between the characteristics of different approaches in Adaptive Delta Management and their alignment with the cultural conditions encountered in various delta's globally. In this analysis, first different management theories underlying approaches to Adaptive Delta Management as encountered in both scientific and professional publications are identified and characterized on three dimensions: The characteristics dimensions used are: orientation on today, orientation on the future, and decision making (Timmermans, 2015). The different underlying management theories encountered are policy analysis, strategic management, transition management, and adaptive management. These four management theories underlying different approaches in Adaptive Delta Management are connected to

  9. Probabilistic economic frameworks for disaster risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dulac, Guillaume; Forni, Marc

    2013-04-01

    Starting from the general concept of risk, we set up an economic analysis framework for Disaster Risk Management (DRM) investment. It builds on uncertainty management techniques - notably Monte Carlo simulations - and includes both a risk and performance metrics adapted to recurring issues in disaster risk management as entertained by governments and international organisations. This type of framework proves to be enlightening in several regards, and is thought to ease the promotion of DRM projects as "investments" rather than "costs to be born" and allow for meaningful comparison between DRM and other sectors. We then look at the specificities of disaster risk investments of medium to large scales through this framework, where some "invariants" can be identified, notably: (i) it makes more sense to perform analysis over long-term horizons -space and time scales are somewhat linked; (ii) profiling of the fluctuations of the gains and losses of DRM investments over long periods requires the ability to handle possibly highly volatile variables; (iii) complexity increases with the scale which results in a higher sensitivity of the analytic framework on the results; (iv) as the perimeter of analysis (time, theme and space-wise) is widened, intrinsic parameters of the project tend to weight lighter. This puts DRM in a very different perspective from traditional modelling, which usually builds on more intrinsic features of the disaster as it relates to the scientific knowledge about hazard(s). As models hardly accommodate for such complexity or "data entropy" (they require highly structured inputs), there is a need for a complementary approach to understand risk at global scale. The proposed framework suggests opting for flexible ad hoc modelling of specific issues consistent with one's objective, risk and performance metrics. Such tailored solutions are strongly context-dependant (time and budget, sensitivity of the studied variable in the economic framework) and can

  10. Adaptive mobility management scheme in hierarchical mobile IPv6

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fang, Bo; Song, Junde

    2004-04-01

    Hierarchical mobile IPv6 makes the mobility management localized. Registration with HA is only needed while MN moving between MAP domains. This paper proposed an adaptive mobility management scheme based on the hierarchical mobile IPv6. The scheme focuses on the MN operation as well as MAP operation during the handoff. Adaptive MAP selection algorithm can be used to select a suitable MAP to register with once MN moves into a new subnet while MAP can thus adaptively changing his management domain. Furthermore, MAP can also adaptively changes its level in the hierarchical referring on the service load or other related information. Detailed handoff algorithm is also discussed in this paper.

  11. Adapting natural resource management to climate change: The South Central Oregon and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

    2015-12-01

    Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and one national park in south central Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

  12. Adapting Natural Resource Management to Climate Change: The Blue Mountains and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and other key stakeholders in the Blue Mountains region of northeastern Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

  13. Quick Fix for Managing Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2002-01-01

    Under a Phase II SBIR contract, Kennedy and Lumina Decision Systems, Inc., jointly developed the Schedule and Cost Risk Analysis Modeling (SCRAM) system, based on a version of Lumina's flagship software product, Analytica(R). Acclaimed as "the best single decision-analysis program yet produced" by MacWorld magazine, Analytica is a "visual" tool used in decision-making environments worldwide to build, revise, and present business models, minus the time-consuming difficulty commonly associated with spreadsheets. With Analytica as their platform, Kennedy and Lumina created the SCRAM system in response to NASA's need to identify the importance of major delays in Shuttle ground processing, a critical function in project management and process improvement. As part of the SCRAM development project, Lumina designed a version of Analytica called the Analytica Design Engine (ADE) that can be easily incorporated into larger software systems. ADE was commercialized and utilized in many other developments, including web-based decision support.

  14. Passive and active adaptive management: approaches and an example.

    PubMed

    Williams, Byron K

    2011-05-01

    Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. Yet there remains considerable confusion about what adaptive management entails, and how to actually make resource decisions adaptively. A key but somewhat ambiguous distinction in adaptive management is between active and passive forms of adaptive decision making. The objective of this paper is to illustrate some approaches to active and passive adaptive management with a simple example involving the drawdown of water impoundments on a wildlife refuge. The approaches are illustrated for the drawdown example, and contrasted in terms of objectives, costs, and potential learning rates. Some key challenges to the actual practice of AM are discussed, and tradeoffs between implementation costs and long-term benefits are highlighted.

  15. Passive and active adaptive management: Approaches and an example

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, B.K.

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. Yet there remains considerable confusion about what adaptive management entails, and how to actually make resource decisions adaptively. A key but somewhat ambiguous distinction in adaptive management is between active and passive forms of adaptive decision making. The objective of this paper is to illustrate some approaches to active and passive adaptive management with a simple example involving the drawdown of water impoundments on a wildlife refuge. The approaches are illustrated for the drawdown example, and contrasted in terms of objectives, costs, and potential learning rates. Some key challenges to the actual practice of AM are discussed, and tradeoffs between implementation costs and long-term benefits are highlighted. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  16. 76 FR 24516 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-05-02

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group...-575) of 1992. The AMP includes a Federal advisory committee, the AMWG, a technical work group (TWG),...

  17. 77 FR 9265 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-02-16

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group... Federal advisory committee, the AMWG, a technical work group (TWG), a Grand Canyon Monitoring and...

  18. 78 FR 21415 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-04-10

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group..., the AMWG, a technical work group, a Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center, and...

  19. 77 FR 43117 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-07-23

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group... Federal advisory committee, the AMWG, a technical work group (TWG), a Grand Canyon Monitoring and...

  20. 78 FR 7810 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-02-04

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group.... L. 102-575) of 1992. The AMP includes a Federal advisory committee, the AMWG, a technical work...

  1. 79 FR 3873 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2014-01-23

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group...-575) of 1992. The GCDAMP includes a Federal advisory committee, the AMWG, a technical work group...

  2. 79 FR 24748 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2014-05-01

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group..., the AMWG, a technical work group, a Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center, and...

  3. 80 FR 21261 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2015-04-17

    ....05940913.7000000] Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of public meeting. SUMMARY: The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group (AMWG... committee, the AMWG, a technical work group, a Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center, and...

  4. Managing Research in a Risk World

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anton, W.; Havenhill, M.

    2014-01-01

    The Office of Chief Medical Officer (OCHMO) owns all human health and performance risks managed by the Human System Risk Board (HSRB). While the HSRB manages the risks, the Human Research Program (HRP) manages the research portion of the overall risk mitigation strategy for these risks. The HSRB manages risks according to a process that identifies and analyzes risks, plans risk mitigation and tracks and reviews the implementation of these strategies according to its decisions pertaining to the OCHMO risk posture. HRP manages risk research work using an architecture that describes evidence-based risks, gaps in our knowledge about characterizing or mitigating the risk, and the tasks needed to produce deliverables to fill the gaps and reduce the risk. A planning schedule reflecting expected research milestones is developed, and as deliverables and new evidence are generated, research progress is tracked via the Path to Risk Reduction (PRR) that reflects a risk's research plan for a design reference mission. HRP's risk research process closely interfaces with the HSRB risk management process. As research progresses, new deliverables and evidence are used by the HSRB in conjunction with other operational and non-research evidence to inform decisions pertaining to the likelihood and consequence of the risk and risk posture. Those decisions in turn guide forward work for research as it contributes to overall risk mitigation strategies. As HRP tracks its research work, it aligns its priorities by assessing the effectiveness of its contributions and maintaining specific core competencies that would be invaluable for future work for exploration missions.

  5. Leadership Behaviors of Management for Complex Adaptive Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-04-01

    2010 Northrop Grumman 14 Manager Leadership Behaviors of Managers Visionary Leadership Motivates and Encourages Promotes Organizational Learning Behaviors...most © Copyright 2009 Northrop GrummanCopyright 2010 Northrop Grumman 19 vulnerable? The Manager: Promotes Organizational Learning • Promotes...emphasize collaboration, team empowerment, trust, and organizational learning • Train managers in the practices that works best in adaptive environments

  6. Complex Adaptive Systems as Metaphors for Organizational Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Palmberg, Klara

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore the concept of complex adaptive systems (CAS) from the perspective of managing organizations, to describe and explore the management principles in a case study of an organization with unconventional ways of management and to present a tentative model for managing organizations as CAS--system…

  7. Business resilience: Reframing healthcare risk management.

    PubMed

    Simeone, Cynthia L

    2015-09-01

    The responsibility of risk management in healthcare is fractured, with multiple stakeholders. Most hospitals and healthcare systems do not have a fully integrated risk management system that spans the entire organizational and operational structure for the delivery of key services. This article provides insight toward utilizing a comprehensive Business Resilience program and associated methodology to understand and manage organizational risk leading to organizational effectiveness and operational efficiencies, with the fringe benefit of realizing sustainable operational capability during adverse conditions.

  8. Risk Management for Brigades and Battalions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a concept, with procedures and responsibilities, for risk management in brigades and battlalions during Mission Essential Task...FM 100-5, Operations. The risk management procedures and responsibilities are consistent with those presented in FM 101-5, Command and Control for... risk management tactics, techniques and procedures published in the Center for Army Lessons Learned Newsletter, "Force Protection (Safety)", No. 9, December 1993.

  9. Managing Risk in Hodgkin Lymphoma.

    PubMed

    Armitage, James O; Chen, Robert W; Moskowitz, Craig H; Sweetenham, John

    2015-02-01

    Approximately 90% of patients with limited-stage Hodgkin lymphoma are cured. The cure rate in advanced-stage Hodgkin lymphoma is dramatically better than it once was, but it is still lower than the rate in patients with limited disease. The choice of treatment is based on several factors, including symptoms, disease stage, extent of tumor burden, and prognosis. Positron emission tomography scanning can be used to assess the patient's stage of disease, which can allow further individualization of therapy. Traditional frontline treatment options include doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine (ABVD) and, for high-risk patients, bleomycin, etoposide, doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, vincristine, procarbazine, and prednisone (BEACOPP). Autologous stem cell transplantation cures approximately 50% of patients. The antibody-drug conjugate brentuximab vedotin is very active in relapsed/refractory Hodgkin lymphoma. Data presented at the 2014 meeting of the American Society of Hematology (ASH) showed that brentuximab vedotin was beneficial in several settings, including as consolidation therapy posttransplant in patients at high risk for relapse, as first-line salvage therapy in relapsed/refractory Hodgkin lymphoma prior to autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation, and in combination with bendamustine in relapsed/refractory disease. The ASH meeting also offered promising data on novel agents, such as the programmed cell death 1 (PD-1) inhibitors. In this monograph, 4 experts in the management of Hodgkin lymphoma discuss various aspects of the disease and provide their perspectives on the new data presented at the ASH meeting.

  10. Assessing and Managing Risk with Suicidal Individuals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linehan, Marsh M.; Comtois, Katherine A.; Ward-Ciesielski, Erin F.

    2012-01-01

    The University of Washington Risk Assessment Protocol (UWRAP) and Risk Assessment and Management Protocol (UWRAMP) have been used in numerous clinical trials treating high-risk suicidal individuals over several years. These protocols structure assessors and treatment providers to provide a thorough suicide risk assessment, review standards of care…

  11. Safety risk management for ESA space systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, K. M.

    1991-08-01

    ESA's safety program as defined in ESA PSS-01-40, system safety requirements for ESA space systems, comprise the systematic identification and evaluation of space system hazardous characteristics and their associated risks, together with a process of safety optimization through hazard and risk reduction, and implementation verification. This safety optimization and verification process is termed safety risk management. The fundamental principles of safety risk management are discussed.

  12. Risk Management Questions for News Reporting Classes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stiff, Cindy

    1995-01-01

    Reviews court rulings which demonstrate that the potential for liability is significant when students are injured on journalism assignments. Offers guidelines on risk management for journalism professors. (SR)

  13. Risk Management for the International Space Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sebastian, J.; Brezovic, Philip

    2002-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) is an extremely complex system, both technically and programmatically. The Space Station must support a wide range of payloads and missions. It must be launched in numerous launch packages and be safely assembled and operated in the harsh environment of space. It is being designed and manufactured by many organizations, including the prime contractor, Boeing, the NASA institutions, and international partners and their contractors. Finally, the ISS has multiple customers, (e.g., the Administration, Congress, users, public, international partners, etc.) with contrasting needs and constraints. It is the ISS Risk Management Office strategy to proactively and systematically manages risks to help ensure ISS Program success. ISS program follows integrated risk management process (both quantitative and qualitative) and is integrated into ISS project management. The process and tools are simple and seamless and permeate to the lowest levels (at a level where effective management can be realized) and follows the continuous risk management methodology. The risk process assesses continually what could go wrong (risks), determine which risks need to be managed, implement strategies to deal with those risks, and measure effectiveness of the implemented strategies. The process integrates all facets of risk including cost, schedule and technical aspects. Support analysis risk tools like PRA are used to support programatic decisions and assist in analyzing risks.

  14. An Adaptive Watershed Management Assessment Based on Watershed Investigation Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Min Goo; Park, Seung Woo

    2015-05-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the states of watersheds in South Korea and to formulate new measures to improve identified inadequacies. The study focused on the watersheds of the Han River basin and adopted an adaptive watershed management framework. Using data collected during watershed investigation projects, we analyzed the management context of the study basin and identified weaknesses in water use management, flood management, and environmental and ecosystems management in the watersheds. In addition, we conducted an interview survey to obtain experts' opinions on the possible management of watersheds in the future. The results of the assessment show that effective management of the Han River basin requires adaptive watershed management, which includes stakeholders' participation and social learning. Urbanization was the key variable in watershed management of the study basin. The results provide strong guidance for future watershed management and suggest that nonstructural measures are preferred to improve the states of the watersheds and that consistent implementation of the measures can lead to successful watershed management. The results also reveal that governance is essential for adaptive watershed management in the study basin. A special ordinance is necessary to establish governance and aid social learning. Based on the findings, a management process is proposed to support new watershed management practices. The results will be of use to policy makers and practitioners who can implement the measures recommended here in the early stages of adaptive watershed management in the Han River basin. The measures can also be applied to other river basins.

  15. An adaptive watershed management assessment based on watershed investigation data.

    PubMed

    Kang, Min Goo; Park, Seung Woo

    2015-05-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the states of watersheds in South Korea and to formulate new measures to improve identified inadequacies. The study focused on the watersheds of the Han River basin and adopted an adaptive watershed management framework. Using data collected during watershed investigation projects, we analyzed the management context of the study basin and identified weaknesses in water use management, flood management, and environmental and ecosystems management in the watersheds. In addition, we conducted an interview survey to obtain experts' opinions on the possible management of watersheds in the future. The results of the assessment show that effective management of the Han River basin requires adaptive watershed management, which includes stakeholders' participation and social learning. Urbanization was the key variable in watershed management of the study basin. The results provide strong guidance for future watershed management and suggest that nonstructural measures are preferred to improve the states of the watersheds and that consistent implementation of the measures can lead to successful watershed management. The results also reveal that governance is essential for adaptive watershed management in the study basin. A special ordinance is necessary to establish governance and aid social learning. Based on the findings, a management process is proposed to support new watershed management practices. The results will be of use to policy makers and practitioners who can implement the measures recommended here in the early stages of adaptive watershed management in the Han River basin. The measures can also be applied to other river basins.

  16. Lessons in risk- versus resilience-based design and management.

    PubMed

    Park, Jeryang; Seager, Thomas P; Rao, P Suresh C

    2011-07-01

    The implications of recent catastrophic disasters, including the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, reach well beyond the immediate, direct environmental and human health risks. In a complex coupled system, disruptions from natural disasters and man-made accidents can quickly propagate through a complex chain of networks to cause unpredictable failures in other economic or social networks and other parts of the world. Recent disasters have revealed the inadequacy of a classical risk management approach. This study calls for a new resilience-based design and management paradigm that draws upon the ecological analogues of diversity and adaptation in response to low-probability and high-consequence disruptions.

  17. ESMD Risk Management Workshop: Systems Engineering and Integration Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, L. Dale

    2005-01-01

    This report has been developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Risk Management team in close coordination with the Systems Engineering Team. This document provides a point-in-time, cumulative, summary of key lessons learned derived from the SE RFP Development process. Lessons learned invariably address challenges and risks and the way in which these areas have been addressed. Accordingly the risk management thread is woven throughout the document.

  18. Sustaining a Mature Risk Management Process: Ensuring the International Space Station for a Vibrant Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Raftery, Michael; Carter-Journet, Katrina

    2013-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) risk management methodology is an example of a mature and sustainable process. Risk management is a systematic approach used to proactively identify, analyze, plan, track, control, communicate, and document risks to help management make risk-informed decisions that increase the likelihood of achieving program objectives. The ISS has been operating in space for over 14 years and permanently crewed for over 12 years. It is the longest surviving habitable vehicle in low Earth orbit history. Without a mature and proven risk management plan, it would be increasingly difficult to achieve mission success throughout the life of the ISS Program. A successful risk management process must be able to adapt to a dynamic program. As ISS program-level decision processes have evolved, so too has the ISS risk management process continued to innovate, improve, and adapt. Constant adaptation of risk management tools and an ever-improving process is essential to the continued success of the ISS Program. Above all, sustained support from program management is vital to risk management continued effectiveness. Risk management is valued and stressed as an important process by the ISS Program.

  19. Overview of Risk Management for Engineered Nanomaterials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schulte, P. A.; Geraci, C. L.; Hodson, L. L.; Zumwalde, R. D.; Kuempel, E. D.; Murashov, V.; Martinez, K. F.; Heidel, D. S.

    2013-04-01

    Occupational exposure to engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) is considered a new and challenging occurrence. Preliminary information from laboratory studies indicates that workers exposed to some kinds of ENMs could be at risk of adverse health effects. To protect the nanomaterial workforce, a precautionary risk management approach is warranted and given the newness of ENMs and emergence of nanotechnology, a naturalistic view of risk management is useful. Employers have the primary responsibility for providing a safe and healthy workplace. This is achieved by identifying and managing risks which include recognition of hazards, assessing exposures, characterizing actual risk, and implementing measures to control those risks. Following traditional risk management models for nanomaterials is challenging because of uncertainties about the nature of hazards, issues in exposure assessment, questions about appropriate control methods, and lack of occupational exposure limits (OELs) or nano-specific regulations. In the absence of OELs specific for nanomaterials, a precautionary approach has been recommended in many countries. The precautionary approach entails minimizing exposures by using engineering controls and personal protective equipment (PPE). Generally, risk management utilizes the hierarchy of controls. Ideally, risk management for nanomaterials should be part of an enterprise-wide risk management program or system and this should include both risk control and a medical surveillance program that assesses the frequency of adverse effects among groups of workers exposed to nanomaterials. In some cases, the medical surveillance could include medical screening of individual workers to detect early signs of work-related illnesses. All medical surveillance should be used to assess the effectiveness of risk management; however, medical surveillance should be considered as a second line of defense to ensure that implemented risk management practices are effective.

  20. Overview of Risk Management for Engineered Nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Schulte, P A; Geraci, C L; Hodson, L L; Zumwalde, R D; Kuempel, E D; Murashov, V; Martinez, K F; Heidel, D S

    Occupational exposure to engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) is considered a new and challenging occurrence. Preliminary information from laboratory studies indicates that workers exposed to some kinds of ENMs could be at risk of adverse health effects. To protect the nanomaterial workforce, a precautionary risk management approach is warranted and given the newness of ENMs and emergence of nanotechnology, a naturalistic view of risk management is useful. Employers have the primary responsibility for providing a safe and healthy workplace. This is achieved by identifying and managing risks which include recognition of hazards, assessing exposures, characterizing actual risk, and implementing measures to control those risks. Following traditional risk management models for nanomaterials is challenging because of uncertainties about the nature of hazards, issues in exposure assessment, questions about appropriate control methods, and lack of occupational exposure limits (OELs) or nano-specific regulations. In the absence of OELs specific for nanomaterials, a precautionary approach has been recommended in many countries. The precautionary approach entails minimizing exposures by using engineering controls and personal protective equipment (PPE). Generally, risk management utilizes the hierarchy of controls. Ideally, risk management for nanomaterials should be part of an enterprise-wide risk management program or system and this should include both risk control and a medical surveillance program that assesses the frequency of adverse effects among groups of workers exposed to nanomaterials. In some cases, the medical surveillance could include medical screening of individual workers to detect early signs of work-related illnesses. All medical surveillance should be used to assess the effectiveness of risk management; however, medical surveillance should be considered as a second line of defense to ensure that implemented risk management practices are effective.

  1. Overview of Risk Management for Engineered Nanomaterials

    PubMed Central

    Schulte, PA; Geraci, CL; Hodson, LL; Zumwalde, RD; Kuempel, ED; Murashov, V; Martinez, KF; Heidel, DS

    2015-01-01

    Occupational exposure to engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) is considered a new and challenging occurrence. Preliminary information from laboratory studies indicates that workers exposed to some kinds of ENMs could be at risk of adverse health effects. To protect the nanomaterial workforce, a precautionary risk management approach is warranted and given the newness of ENMs and emergence of nanotechnology, a naturalistic view of risk management is useful. Employers have the primary responsibility for providing a safe and healthy workplace. This is achieved by identifying and managing risks which include recognition of hazards, assessing exposures, characterizing actual risk, and implementing measures to control those risks. Following traditional risk management models for nanomaterials is challenging because of uncertainties about the nature of hazards, issues in exposure assessment, questions about appropriate control methods, and lack of occupational exposure limits (OELs) or nano-specific regulations. In the absence of OELs specific for nanomaterials, a precautionary approach has been recommended in many countries. The precautionary approach entails minimizing exposures by using engineering controls and personal protective equipment (PPE). Generally, risk management utilizes the hierarchy of controls. Ideally, risk management for nanomaterials should be part of an enterprise-wide risk management program or system and this should include both risk control and a medical surveillance program that assesses the frequency of adverse effects among groups of workers exposed to nanomaterials. In some cases, the medical surveillance could include medical screening of individual workers to detect early signs of work-related illnesses. All medical surveillance should be used to assess the effectiveness of risk management; however, medical surveillance should be considered as a second line of defense to ensure that implemented risk management practices are effective. PMID

  2. Sustainability appraisal and flood risk management

    SciTech Connect

    Carter, Jeremy G. White, Iain Richards, Juliet

    2009-01-15

    This research establishes that sustainability appraisal (SA) has a role to play in strengthening spatial plans in the context of flooding issues. Indeed, evidence has been gathered to indicate that tentative steps are being taken in this direction during the SA of English regional spatial plans, which are used as an illustrative case study. In England as in many other countries, appraisal procedures including SA and strategic environmental assessment (SEA) are enshrined in planning law. An opportunity therefore exists to utilise existing and familiar planning tools to embed flooding considerations within spatial plans at an early stage in the planning process. SA (and similar appraisal tools such as SEA) can therefore usefully aid in the implementation of decision making principles and government policy relating to flooding. Moreover, with the threats associated with climate change becoming increasingly apparent, of which increased flood risk is a particular concern in many countries, there is a need develop appropriate adaptation responses. This article emphasizes the role that SA can play in managing future flood risk in this context.

  3. Nano risk analysis: advancing the science for nanomaterials risk management.

    PubMed

    Shatkin, Jo Anne; Abbott, Linda Carolyn; Bradley, Ann E; Canady, Richard Alan; Guidotti, Tee; Kulinowski, Kristen M; Löfstedt, Ragnar E; Louis, Garrick; MacDonell, Margaret; Macdonell, Margaret; Maynard, Andrew D; Paoli, Greg; Sheremeta, Lorraine; Walker, Nigel; White, Ronald; Williams, Richard

    2010-11-01

    Scientists, activists, industry, and governments have raised concerns about health and environmental risks of nanoscale materials. The Society for Risk Analysis convened experts in September 2008 in Washington, DC to deliberate on issues relating to the unique attributes of nanoscale materials that raise novel concerns about health risks. This article reports on the overall themes and findings of the workshop, uncovering the underlying issues for each of these topics that become recurring themes. The attributes of nanoscale particles and other nanomaterials that present novel issues for risk analysis are evaluated in a risk analysis framework, identifying challenges and opportunities for risk analysts and others seeking to assess and manage the risks from emerging nanoscale materials and nanotechnologies. Workshop deliberations and recommendations for advancing the risk analysis and management of nanotechnologies are presented.

  4. Reducing uncertainty about objective functions in adaptive management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, B.K.

    2012-01-01

    This paper extends the uncertainty framework of adaptive management to include uncertainty about the objectives to be used in guiding decisions. Adaptive decision making typically assumes explicit and agreed-upon objectives for management, but allows for uncertainty as to the structure of the decision process that generates change through time. Yet it is not unusual for there to be uncertainty (or disagreement) about objectives, with different stakeholders expressing different views not only about resource responses to management but also about the appropriate management objectives. In this paper I extend the treatment of uncertainty in adaptive management, and describe a stochastic structure for the joint occurrence of uncertainty about objectives as well as models, and show how adaptive decision making and the assessment of post-decision monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties of both kinds. Different degrees of association between model and objective uncertainty lead to different patterns of learning about objectives. ?? 2011.

  5. Risk/MRD adapted GMALL trials in adult ALL.

    PubMed

    Gökbuget, N; Raff, R; Brügge-Mann, M; Flohr, T; Scheuring, U; Pfeifer, H; Bartram, C R; Kneba, M; Hoelzer, D

    2004-01-01

    The German Multicenter Study Group for Adult ALL (GMALL) conducts since 1984 trials with risk adapted study design. The model of conventional prognostic factors comprises now WBC, age, immunophenotype, cytogenetics and molecular genetics. Risk stratification according to these factors allows a highly significant prediction of relapse risk in adult ALL. In the recent GMALL study minimal residual disease (MRD) was added to the risk model. Trials in childhood and adult ALL showed convincingly that MRD is a relevant and independent prognostic factor. It is of particular value in standard risk (SR) patients as defined by conventional factors. In the current GMALL study a risk stratification according to conventional factors is followed by a MRD based stratification in SR patients. Whereas high and very high risk patients receive a stem cell transplantation (SCT) in first CR after induction and first consolidation, SR patients receive cyclic consolidation therapy for one year with MRD monitoring. At the end of the first year a stratification according to course and level of MRD takes place. Treatment is stopped in patients with low risk whereas in high risk patients a SCT is planned. Patients who cannot be allocated to either group are treated as intermediate risk and receive one year of intensified maintenance therapy. Preliminary results show that MRD based risk stratification is feasible and that the treatment recommendations for MRD based risk groups are reasonable. In the future however an earlier identification of high risk patients (after 4 months) will be attempted.

  6. [Does clinical risk management require a structured conflict management?].

    PubMed

    Neumann, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    A key element of clinical risk management is the analysis of errors causing near misses or patient damage. After analyzing the causes and circumstances, measures for process improvement have to be taken. Process management, human resource development and other established methods are used. If an interpersonal conflict is a contributory factor to the error, there is usually no structured conflict management available which includes selection criteria for various methods of conflict processing. The European University Viadrina in Frankfurt (Oder) has created a process model for introducing a structured conflict management system which is suitable for hospitals and could fill the gap in the methodological spectrum of clinical risk management. There is initial evidence that a structured conflict management reduces staff fluctuation and hidden conflict costs. This article should be understood as an impulse for discussion on to what extent the range of methods of clinical risk management should be complemented by conflict management.

  7. Marathon run: cardiovascular adaptation and cardiovascular risk.

    PubMed

    Predel, Hans-Georg

    2014-11-21

    The first marathon run as an athletic event took place in the context of the Olympic Games in 1896 in Athens, Greece. Today, participation in a 'marathon run' has become a global phenomenon attracting young professional athletes as well as millions of mainly middle-aged amateur athletes worldwide each year. One of the main motives for these amateur marathon runners is the expectation that endurance exercise (EE) delivers profound beneficial health effects. However, with respect to the cardiovascular system, a controversial debate has emerged whether the marathon run itself is healthy or potentially harmful to the cardiovascular system, especially in middle-aged non-elite male amateur runners. In this cohort, exercise-induced increases in cardiac biomarkers-troponin and brain natriuretic peptide-and acute functional cardiac alterations have been observed and interpreted as potential cardiac damage. Furthermore, in the cohort of 40- to 65-year-old males engaged in intensive EE, a significant risk for the development of atrial fibrillation has been identified. Fortunately, recent studies demonstrated a normalization of the cardiac biomarkers and the functional alterations within a short time frame. Therefore, these alterations may be perceived as physiological myocardial reactions to the strenuous exercise and the term 'cardiac fatigue' has been coined. This interpretation is supported by a recent analysis of 10.9 million marathon runners demonstrating that there was no significantly increased overall risk of cardiac arrest during long-distance running races. In conclusion, intensive and long-lasting EE, e.g. running a full-distance Marathon, results in high cardiovascular strain whose clinical relevance especially for middle-aged and older athletes is unclear and remains a matter of controversy. Furthermore, there is a need for evidence-based recommendations with respect to medical screening and training strategies especially in male amateur runners over the age of

  8. Risk management - What about software?

    SciTech Connect

    1996-07-01

    Risks in software systems arise from many directions. There are risks that the software is faulty, that the system may be attacked, that safety hazards exist, that the system may be inoperable or untimely, that an abnormal event may cause unexpected actions, etc. Risk analysis tools should support and document risk-mitigation decisions and facilitate understanding of residual risks. These tools must be based on a sound theory of risk, which does not exist today. Probabilistic risk assessment techniques apply to physically-based systems where failure modes and event dependence are fairly well understood. But they cannot be blindly applied to software systems, which do not share these characteristics. Moreover, we need to meld many diverse aspects of risk for software systems. This presentation will explore some thought-provoking ideas about modeling, problem spaces, solution approaches, math, decision friendly output, and the role of risk analysis in the software lifecycle.

  9. Risk Management In Perspective Of Knowledge Management A Brief Survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rehman, Zobia; Kifor, Claudiu V.

    2015-09-01

    This article explains the application of knowledge management for project risk management in industry. Combination of knowledge management and risk management is becoming a dire need for industries nowadays, because it has become necessary to make information reach timely to its destined users to achieve the desired goals. Quick decisions are needed throughout a project life cycle to mitigate or avoid a risk, but they are only possible when knowledge about it is in hand and can be inferred for fruitful decisions. Quality engineers make huge effort in analyzing and mitigating the risk and prepare various documents about different risk management stages. But this knowledge resides in documents or underutilized databases without any relation to each other that makes it useless for complex decision making. This article shall explain how knowledge management activities are helpful in risk management and the advantages of their fusion. It will also present a conceptual architecture of an Information Technology based solution for risk management and knowledge management combination.

  10. Occupational safety risk management in Australian mining.

    PubMed

    Joy, J

    2004-08-01

    In the past 15 years, there has been a major safety improvement in the Australian mining industry. Part of this change can be attributed to the development and application of risk assessment methods. These systematic, team-based techniques identify, assess and control unacceptable risks to people, assets, the environment and production. The outcomes have improved mine management systems. This paper discusses the risk assessment approach applied to equipment design and mining operations, as well as the specific risk assessment methodology. The paper also discusses the reactive side of risk management, incident and accident investigation. Systematic analytical methods have also been adopted by regulatory authorities and mining companies to investigate major losses.

  11. Implementing Adaptive Performance Management in Server Applications

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Yan; Gorton, Ian

    2007-06-11

    Performance and scalability are critical quality attributes for server applications in Internet-facing business systems. These applications operate in dynamic environments with rapidly fluctuating user loads and resource levels, and unpredictable system faults. Adaptive (autonomic) systems research aims to augment such server applications with intelligent control logic that can detect and react to sudden environmental changes. However, developing this adaptive logic is complex in itself. In addition, executing the adaptive logic consumes processing resources, and hence may (paradoxically) adversely affect application performance. In this paper we describe an approach for developing high-performance adaptive server applications and the supporting technology. The Adaptive Server Framework (ASF) is built on standard middleware services, and can be used to augment legacy systems with adaptive behavior without needing to change the application business logic. Crucially, ASF provides built-in control loop components to optimize the overall application performance, which comprises both the business and adaptive logic. The control loop is based on performance models and allows systems designers to tune the performance levels simply by modifying high level declarative policies. We demonstrate the use of ASF in a case study.

  12. Legacy Risk Measure for Environmental Management Waste

    SciTech Connect

    Eide, Steven Arvid; Nitschke, Robert Leon

    2002-02-01

    The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) is investigating the development of a comprehensive and quantitative risk model framework for environmental management activities at the site. Included are waste management programs (high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level waste, mixed low-level waste, spent nuclear fuel, and special nuclear materials), major environmental restoration efforts, major decontamination and decommissioning projects, and planned long-term stewardship activities. Two basic types of risk estimates are included: risks from environmental management activities, and long-term legacy risks from wastes/materials. Both types of risks are estimated using the Environment, Safety, and Health Risk Assessment Program (ESHRAP) developed at the INEEL. Given these two types of risk calculations, the following evaluations can be performed: • Risk evaluation of an entire program (covering waste/material as it now exists through disposal or other end states) • Risk comparisons of alternative programs or activities • Comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost for activities or entire programs • Ranking of programs or activities by risk • Ranking of wastes/materials by risk • Evaluation of site risk changes with time as activities progress • Integrated performance measurement using indicators such as injury/death and exposure rates. This paper discusses the definition and calculation of legacy risk measures and associated issues. The legacy risk measure is needed to support three of the seven types of evaluations listed above: comparisons of risk benefit versus risk cost, ranking of wastes/materials by risk, and evaluation of site risk changes with time.

  13. Managing Emerging Contaminant Risks: Plans & Progress

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-06-01

    Management Options (RMOs) approved…now underway or completed as Risk Management Actions (RMAs) – Beryllium, sulfur hexafluoride , hexavalent chromium...Award Acquisition, Technology and Logistics 5 EC Watch List  Tungsten alloys • Sodium Tungstate Tetrachloroethylene (PCE) Dioxin 1,4-dioxane...Chromium (Cr6+) Naphthalene …may move to watch list Beryllium (Be) Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) • Lead…added in Oct 09 Note: - Some risk management

  14. An introduction to adaptive management for threatened and endangered species

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, Michael C.

    2011-01-01

    Management of threatened and endangered species would seem to be a perfect context for adaptive management. Many of the decisions are recurrent and plagued by uncertainty, exactly the conditions that warrant an adaptive approach. But although the potential of adaptive management in these settings has been extolled, there are limited applications in practice. The impediments to practical implementation are manifold and include semantic confusion, institutional inertia, misperceptions about the suitability and utility, and a lack of guiding examples. In this special section of the Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management, we hope to reinvigorate the appropriate application of adaptive management for threatened and endangered species by framing such management in a decision-analytical context, clarifying misperceptions, classifying the types of decisions that might be amenable to an adaptive approach, and providing three fully developed case studies. In this overview paper, I define terms, review the past application of adaptive management, challenge perceived hurdles, and set the stage for the case studies which follow.

  15. Effects of Culturally Adapted Parent Management Training on Latino Youth Behavioral Health Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martinez, Charles R.; Eddy, J. Mark

    2005-01-01

    A randomized experimental test of the implementation feasibility and the efficacy of a culturally adapted Parent Management Training intervention was conducted with a sample of 73 Spanish-speaking Latino parents with middle-school-aged youth at risk for problem behaviors. Intervention feasibility was evaluated through weekly parent satisfaction…

  16. Rangeland management strategies for adapting to climatic variability: Enhancing the positive and mitigating the negative effects

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Rangeland management strategies for adapting to climatic variability are needed to reduce enterprise risk, increase resilience of rangeland/grassland ecosystems and deliver sustainable provision of ecosystem goods (e.g., livestock production) and services (e.g., wildlife habitat) from western North ...

  17. An Introduction to Team Risk Management. (Version 1.0)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-05-01

    Team Risk Management defines the organizational structure and operational activities for managing risks throughout all phases of the life- cycle of a...program are participating team members. Through the adoption of team risk management , the government and contractor are provided with processes...introduces the team risk management approach for managing risks within a software-dependent development program.

  18. Relating farmer's perceptions of climate change risk to adaptation behaviour in Hungary.

    PubMed

    Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Harrison, Paula A; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A

    2016-10-28

    Understanding how farmers perceive climate change risks and how this affects their willingness to adopt adaptation practices is critical for developing effective climate change response strategies for the agricultural sector. This study examines (i) the perceptual relationships between farmers' awareness of climate change phenomena, beliefs in climate change risks and actual adaptation behaviour, and (ii) how these relationships may be modified by farm-level antecedents related to human, social, financial capitals and farm characteristics. An extensive household survey was designed to investigate the current pattern of adaptation strategies and collect data on these perceptual variables and their potential antecedents from private landowners in Veszprém and Tolna counties, Hungary. Path analysis was used to explore the causal connections between variables. We found that belief in the risk of climate change was heightened by an increased awareness of directly observable climate change phenomena (i.e. water shortages and extreme weather events). The awareness of extreme weather events was a significant driver of adaptation behaviour. Farmers' actual adaptation behaviour was primarily driven by financial motives and managerial considerations (i.e. the aim of improving profit and product sales; gaining farm ownership and the amount of land managed; and, the existence of a successor), and stimulated by an innovative personality and the availability of information from socio-agricultural networks. These results enrich the empirical evidence in support of improving understanding of farmer decision-making processes, which is critical in developing well-targeted adaptation policies.

  19. [What Surgeons Should Know about Risk Management].

    PubMed

    Strametz, R; Tannheimer, M; Rall, M

    2017-02-01

    Background: The fact that medical treatment is associated with errors has long been recognized. Based on the principle of "first do no harm", numerous efforts have since been made to prevent such errors or limit their impact. However, recent statistics show that these measures do not sufficiently prevent grave mistakes with serious consequences. Preventable mistakes such as wrong patient or wrong site surgery still frequently occur in error statistics. Methods: Based on insight from research on human error, in due consideration of recent legislative regulations in Germany, the authors give an overview of the clinical risk management tools needed to identify risks in surgery, analyse their causes, and determine adequate measures to manage those risks depending on their relevance. The use and limitations of critical incident reporting systems (CIRS), safety checklists and crisis resource management (CRM) are highlighted. Also the rationale for IT systems to support the risk management process is addressed. Results/Conclusion: No single tool of risk management can be effective as a standalone instrument, but unfolds its effect only when embedded in a superordinate risk management system, which integrates tailor-made elements to increase patient safety into the workflows of each organisation. Competence in choosing adequate tools, effective IT systems to support the risk management process as well as leadership and commitment to constructive handling of human error are crucial components to establish a safety culture in surgery.

  20. ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

    Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

  1. Risk Management in Biologics Technology Transfer.

    PubMed

    Toso, Robert; Tsang, Jonathan; Xie, Jasmina; Hohwald, Stephen; Bain, David; Willison-Parry, Derek

    Technology transfer of biological products is a complex process that is important for product commercialization. To achieve a successful technology transfer, the risks that arise from changes throughout the project must be managed. Iterative risk analysis and mitigation tools can be used to both evaluate and reduce risk. The technology transfer stage gate model is used as an example tool to help manage risks derived from both designed process change and unplanned changes that arise due to unforeseen circumstances. The strategy of risk assessment for a change can be tailored to the type of change. In addition, a cross-functional team and centralized documentation helps maximize risk management efficiency to achieve a successful technology transfer.

  2. Risk perception as a driver for risk management policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carmona, María; Mañez, María

    2016-04-01

    Risk is generally defined as the "combination of the probability of the occurrence of an event and its negative consequences" ( UNISDR, 2009). However, the perception of a risk differs among cultures regarding different features such as the context,causes, benefits or damage. Risk perception is the subjective valuation of the probability of an event happening and how concerned individuals or groups are with the consequences (Sjöberg, 2004). Our study is based on an existing framework for risk perception (Rehn and Rohrmann, 2000). We analyse the characteristics of the risk perception regarding extreme events (e.g.droughts) and how the perception of the group drives the action to manage the risk. We do this to achieve an overview of the conditions that let stakeholders join each other to improve risk management especially when governments are not reacting properly. For our research, attention is paid on risk perception of Multi-Sector Partnerships not taking into account the individual level of risk perception. We focus on those factors that make risk management effective and increase resilience. Multi-Sector Partnerships, considered as significant governance structures for risk management, might contribute to reduce vulnerability in prone areas to natural hazards and disasters. The Multi-Sector Partnerships used for our research are existing partnerships identified in the cases studies of the European project ENHANCE. We implement a survey to analyse the perception of risk in the case studies. That survey is based on the Cultural Theory (Douglas and Wildavsky, 1982)and the Protection Motivation Theory (Rogers, 1975). We analyse the results using the Qualitative-Comparative Analysis proposed by Ragin in 1987. The results show the main characteristics of a risk culture that are beneficial to manage a risk. Those characteristics are shaped by the perception of risk of the people involved in the partnership, which in turn shapes their risk management. Nevertheless, we

  3. Adaptive management of ecosystem services across different land use regimes.

    PubMed

    Ruhl, J B

    2016-12-01

    Using adaptive management to manage desired flows of ecosystem services may seem on the surface to be a good fit, but many social, economic, environmental, legal, and political factors influence how good a fit. One strongly influential factor is the land use regime within which the profile of ecosystem services is being managed. Shaped largely by legal mandates, market forces, and social and cultural practices, different land use regimes present different opportunities for and constraints on goals for ecosystem services and pose different decision making environments. Even where all other conditions appear amenable to using adaptive management, therefore, it is essential to consider the constraining (or liberating) effects of different land use regimes when deciding whether to adopt adaptive management to achieve those goals and, if so, how to implement it.

  4. Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, D. L.

    2015-01-01

    Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

  5. Risk Management: An International Perspective.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garvey, Daniel

    1998-01-01

    Focuses on risks and challenges of conducting adventure programming in foreign countries. Recommends actions to take before the crisis (involving assumptions, risk evaluation, emergency evacuation plans, awareness of medical-care costs, and foreign communications systems, family procedures plan, briefings); during the crisis (meeting staff and…

  6. Safety optimization through risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, K.; Peltonen, P.

    The paper discusses the overall process of system safety optimization in the space program environment and addresses in particular methods that enhance the efficiency of this activity. Effective system safety optimization is achieved by concentrating the available engineering and safety assurance resouces on the main risk contributors. The qualitative risk contributor identification by means of the hazard analyses and the FMECA constitute the basis for the system safety process. The risk contributors are ranked firstly on a qualitative basis according to the consequence severities. This ranking is then refined by mishap propagation/recovery time considerations and by probabilistic means (PRA). Finally, in order to broaden and extend the use of risk contributor ranking as a managerial tool in project resource assignment, quality, manufacturing and operations related critical characteristics, i.e. risk influencing factors, are identified for managerial visibility.

  7. Land Use Adaptation Strategies Analysis in Landslide Risk Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Yu-Ching; Chang, Chin-Hsin; Chen, Ying-Tung

    2013-04-01

    In order to respond to the impact of climate and environmental change on Taiwanese mountain region, this study used GTZ (2004) Risk analysis guidelines to assess the landslide risk for 178 Taiwanese mountain towns. This study used 7 indicators to assess landslide risk, which are rainfall distribution, natural environment vulnerability (e.g., rainfall threshold criterion for debris flow, historical disaster frequency, landslide ratio, and road density), physicality vulnerability (e.g., population density) and socio-economic vulnerability (e.g., population with higher education, death rate and income). The landslide risk map can be obtained by multiplying 7 indicators together and ranking the product. The map had 5 risk ranges, and towns within the range of 4 to 5, which are high landslide risk regions, and have high priority in reducing risk. This study collected the regions with high landslide risk regions and analyzed the difference after Typhoon Morakot (2009). The spatial distribution showed that after significant environmental damage high landslide risk regions moved from central to south Taiwan. The changeable pattern of risk regions pointed out the necessity of updating the risk map periodically. Based on the landslide risk map and the land use investigation data which was provided by the National Land Surveying and Mapping Center in 2007, this study calculated the size of the land use area with landslide disaster risk. According to the above results and discussion, this study can be used to suggest appropriate land use adaptation strategies provided for reducing landslide risk under the impact of climate and environmental change.

  8. Public sector reform and governance for adaptation: implications of new public management for adaptive capacity in Mexico and Norway.

    PubMed

    Eakin, Hallie; Eriksen, Siri; Eikeland, Per-Ove; Øyen, Cecilie

    2011-03-01

    Although many governments are assuming the responsibility of initiating adaptation policy in relation to climate change, the compatibility of "governance-for-adaptation" with the current paradigms of public administration has generally been overlooked. Over the last several decades, countries around the globe have embraced variants of the philosophy of administration broadly called "New Public Management" (NPM) in an effort to improve administrative efficiencies and the provision of public services. Using evidence from a case study of reforms in the building sector in Norway, and a case study of water and flood risk management in central Mexico, we analyze the implications of the adoption of the tenets of NPM for adaptive capacity. Our cases illustrate that some of the key attributes associated with governance for adaptation--namely, technical and financial capacities; institutional memory, learning and knowledge; and participation and accountability--have been eroded by NPM reforms. Despite improvements in specific operational tasks of the public sector in each case, we show that the success of NPM reforms presumes the existence of core elements of governance that have often been found lacking, including solid institutional frameworks and accountability. Our analysis illustrates the importance of considering both longer-term adaptive capacities and short-term efficiency goals in public sector administration reform.

  9. 76 FR 57723 - Electricity Sector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process Guideline

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-09-16

    ... Electricity Sector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process Guideline AGENCY: Department of Energy. ACTION... to publish the Electricity Sector Cybersecurity Risk Management Process Guideline. The guideline describes a risk management process that is targeted to the specific needs of electricity...

  10. Driving forces and risk management

    EPA Science Inventory

    From a public health perspective, food safety is the overall goal and there are two distinct areas where interventions to this end can take place – either pre- or post-harvest. In pre-harvest, water quality management is the focus whereas post-harvest quality management depends ...

  11. Biosecurity and risk management for dairy replacements.

    PubMed

    Maunsell, Fiona; Donovan, G Arthur

    2008-03-01

    Biosecurity, biocontainment, and disease risk management on dairy replacement operations are time- and labor-intensive, planned programs. Oftentimes the value of these programs is realized only after disease is introduced to a facility or a disease outbreak occurs. There is no "one-plan-fits-all;" each plan must be tailored to meet the needs of management's goals and expectations and problems specific to a production enterprise or geographic region. A standard framework applicable to biosecurity programs includes: (1) hazard identification, (2) exposure assessment, (3) risk characterization, and (4) risk management. The discussion presented here helps lay the framework for development and implementation of biosecurity and risk-management programs within dairy replacement facilities.

  12. Small Business and the Risk Management Program

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This factsheet helps small businesses comply with the regulation requiring companies that use regulated substances, hazardous chemical such as ammonia and chlorine, to develop a risk management plan, to help prevent accidental toxic or flammable releases.

  13. Managing the Life Cycle Risks of Nanomaterials

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-07-01

    is available. 117 Eurekalert (2009) 35 Final Managing the Life Cycle Risks of...nanotechnologies, MEPs say," http://www.euractiv.com/en/science/data-market-nanotechnologies-meps/article-180893, April, 2 2009. Eurekalert . "Southwest Nano

  14. Transcultural adaptation of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool

    PubMed Central

    Martinez, Maria Carmen; Iwamoto, Viviane Ernesto; Latorre, Maria do Rosário Dias de Oliveira; Noronha, Adriana Moreira; Oliveira, Ana Paula de Sousa; Cardoso, Carlos Eduardo Alves; Marques, Ifigenia Augusta Braga; Vendramim, Patrícia; Lopes, Paula Cristina; de Sant'Ana, Thais Helena Saes

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective: to perform the transcultural adaptation and content validity analysis of the Johns Hopkins Fall Risk Assessment Tool to assess both fall risk and fall-related injury risk for hospitalized elderly in Brazil. Method: the transcultural adaptation consisted of translating the scale to Portuguese (Brazil), back-translating it into its language of origin, establishing a consensus version, and having an expert committee verify its transcultural equivalence. Content assessment was conducted by a committee of judges, ending with the calculation of the items and scales' content validity index. Nurses tested the tool. Results: the scale's translated version went through two evaluation rounds by the judges, based on which, the items with unsatisfactory performance were changed. The content validity index for the items was ≥80.0% and the global index 97.1%. The experimental application showed the scale is user-friendly. Conclusion: the scale presents valid content for the assessment of fall risk and risk of fall-related injuries and is easy to use, with the potential to contribute to the proper identification of risks and the establishment of care actions. PMID:27579936

  15. Protocol and practice in the adaptive management of waterfowl harvests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, F.; Williams, K.

    1999-01-01

    Waterfowl harvest management in North America, for all its success, historically has had several shortcomings, including a lack of well-defined objectives, a failure to account for uncertain management outcomes, and inefficient use of harvest regulations to understand the effects of management. To address these and other concerns, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service began implementation of adaptive harvest management in 1995. Harvest policies are now developed using a Markov decision process in which there is an explicit accounting for uncontrolled environmental variation, partial controllability of harvest, and structural uncertainty in waterfowl population dynamics. Current policies are passively adaptive, in the sense that any reduction in structural uncertainty is an unplanned by-product of the regulatory process. A generalization of the Markov decision process permits the calculation of optimal actively adaptive policies, but it is not yet clear how state-specific harvest actions differ between passive and active approaches. The Markov decision process also provides managers the ability to explore optimal levels of aggregation or "management scale" for regulating harvests in a system that exhibits high temporal, spatial, and organizational variability. Progress in institutionalizing adaptive harvest management has been remarkable, but some managers still perceive the process as a panacea, while failing to appreciate the challenges presented by this more explicit and methodical approach to harvest regulation. Technical hurdles include the need to develop better linkages between population processes and the dynamics of landscapes, and to model the dynamics of structural uncertainty in a more comprehensive fashion. From an institutional perspective, agreement on how to value and allocate harvests continues to be elusive, and there is some evidence that waterfowl managers have overestimated the importance of achievement-oriented factors in setting hunting

  16. Adapting California Water Management to Climate Change (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanak, E.; Lund, J. R.

    2010-12-01

    institutional constraints limit the ability to change reservoir operations, raise funds for flood works, prevent development in flood-prone areas, and encourage use of flood insurance. Needed reforms include forward-looking reservoir operation planning and floodplain mapping, less restrictive rules for raising local flood assessments, and improved public information on flood risks. For water quality, an urgent priority is better science. Climate change is likely to have far-reaching implications for water regulations and management, but we remain at an embryonic state of knowledge about these future changes. We will have to make policy, planning, and operational decisions without perfect knowledge of how much the climate is changing. Although local agencies are central players in all aspects of water management, adaptation will require strong-willed state leadership to shape institutions, incentives, and regulations capable of responding to change. Cooperation of federal agencies will be essential, given the important roles they play in flood management, environmental regulation, and water supply, particularly in the Delta.

  17. 77 FR 22801 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-04-17

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation... Management Work Group (AMWG) makes recommendations to the Secretary of the Interior concerning Glen Canyon... AMP includes a Federal advisory committee, the AMWG, a technical work group, a Grand Canyon...

  18. Managing Adaptive Challenges: Learning with Principals in Bermuda and Florida

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drago-Severson, Eleanor; Maslin-Ostrowski, Patricia; Hoffman, Alexander M.; Barbaro, Justin

    2014-01-01

    We interviewed eight principals from Bermuda and Florida about how they identify and manage their most pressing challenges. Their challenges are composed of both adaptive and technical work, requiring leaders to learn to diagnose and manage them. Challenges focused on change and were traced to accountability contexts, yet accountability was not…

  19. The Value of Adaptive Regret Management in Retirement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farquhar, Jamie C.; Wrosch, Carsten; Pushkar, Dolores; Li, Karen Z. H.

    2013-01-01

    This 3-year longitudinal study examined the associations between regret management, everyday activities, and retirement satisfaction among recent retirees. We hypothesized that the regulation of a severe life regret can facilitate activity engagement and retirement satisfaction, but only if retirees manage their regrets adaptively by either…

  20. Engaging stakeholders for adaptive management using structured decision analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Irwin, Elise R.; Kathryn, D.; Kennedy, Mickett

    2009-01-01

    Adaptive management is different from other types of management in that it includes all stakeholders (versus only policy makers) in the process, uses resource optimization techniques to evaluate competing objectives, and recognizes and attempts to reduce uncertainty inherent in natural resource systems. Management actions are negotiated by stakeholders, monitored results are compared to predictions of how the system should respond, and management strategies are adjusted in a “monitor-compare-adjust” iterative routine. Many adaptive management projects fail because of the lack of stakeholder identification, engagement, and continued involvement. Primary reasons for this vary but are usually related to either stakeholders not having ownership (or representation) in decision processes or disenfranchisement of stakeholders after adaptive management begins. We present an example in which stakeholders participated fully in adaptive management of a southeastern regulated river. Structured decision analysis was used to define management objectives and stakeholder values and to determine initial flow prescriptions. The process was transparent, and the visual nature of the modeling software allowed stakeholders to see how their interests and values were represented in the decision process. The development of a stakeholder governance structure and communication mechanism has been critical to the success of the project.

  1. Wildfire Risk Management: Challenges and Opportunities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, M.; Calkin, D. E.; Hand, M. S.; Kreitler, J.

    2014-12-01

    In this presentation we address federal wildfire risk management largely through the lens of economics, targeting questions related to costs, effectiveness, efficiency, and tradeoffs. Beyond risks to resources and assets such as wildlife habitat, watersheds, and homes, wildfires present financial risk and budgetary instability for federal wildfire management agencies due to highly variable annual suppression costs. Despite its variability, the costs of wildfire management have continued to escalate and account for an ever-growing share of overall agency budgets, compromising abilities to attain other objectives related to forest health, recreation, timber management, etc. Trends associated with a changing climate and human expansion into fire-prone areas could lead to additional suppression costs in the future, only further highlighting the need for an ability to evaluate economic tradeoffs in investments across the wildfire management spectrum. Critically, these economic analyses need to accurately capture the complex spatial and stochastic aspects of wildfire, the inherent uncertainty associated with monetizing environmental impacts of wildfire, the costs and effectiveness of alternative management policies, and linkages between pre-fire investments and active incident management. Investing in hazardous fuels reduction and forest restoration in particular is a major policy lever for pre-fire risk mitigation, and will be a primary focus of our presentation. Evaluating alternative fuel management and suppression policies could provide opportunities for significant efficiency improvements in the development of risk-informed management fire management strategies. Better understanding tradeoffs of fire impacts and costs can help inform policy questions such as how much of the landscape to treat and how to balance investments in treating new areas versus maintaining previous investments. We will summarize current data needs, knowledge gaps, and other factors

  2. Ensuring Success of Adaptive Control Research Through Project Lifecycle Risk Mitigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pavlock, Kate M.

    2011-01-01

    Lessons Learne: 1. Design-out unnecessary risk to prevent excessive mitigation management during flight. 2. Consider iterative checkouts to confirm or improve human factor characteristics. 3. Consider the total flight test profile to uncover unanticipated human-algorithm interactions. 4. Consider test card cadence as a metric to assess test readiness. 5. Full-scale flight test is critical to development, maturation, and acceptance of adaptive control laws for operational use.

  3. Operational Risk Management and Military Aviation Safety

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1999-09-01

    accidents has caused the leadership to seek to reduce its mishap rate. The Army’s Class A aviation mishap rate declined after it implemented risk management (RM...principles in 1987. This reduction caught the attention of Air Force leadership who have since stated that the application of operational risk ... management (ORM) is how the Air Force will reduce, even eliminate, mishaps. With current budget constraints, ORM is considered to be the most cost

  4. Rich Water World an adaptive water management tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Rheenen, Hans; van den Berg, Wim

    2015-04-01

    Rich Water World an adaptive water management tool based on weather forecasting, sensor data and hydrological modelling. Climate change will cause periods of more extreme rainfall relieved by periods of drought. Water systems have to become more robust and self supporting in order to prevent damage by flooding and drought. For climate proof water management, it is important to anticipate on extreme events by using excellent weather forecast data, sensor data on soil and water, and hydrologic model data. The Rich Water World project has created an Adaptive Water Management Tool that integrates all these data.

  5. [New approach for managing microbial risks in food].

    PubMed

    Augustin, Jean-Christophe

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the food legislation is to ensure the protection of human health. Traditionally, the food legislation requires food business operators to apply good hygiene practices and specific procedures to control foodborne pathogens. These regulations allowed reaching a high level of health protection. The improvement of the system will require risk-based approaches. Firstly, risk assessment should allow the identification of high-risk situations where resources should be allocated for a better targeting of risk management. Then, management measures should be adapted to the health objective. In this approach, the appropriate level of protection is converted intofood safety and performance objectives on the food chain, i.e., maximum microbial contamination to fulfil the acceptable risk level. When objectives are defined, the food business operators and competent authorities can identify control options to comply with the objectives and establish microbiological criteria to verify compliance with these objectives. This approach, described for approximately 10 years, operative thanks to the development of quantitative risk assessment techniques, is still difficult to use in practical terms since it requires a commitment of competent authorities to define the acceptable risk and needs also the implementation of sometimes complex risk models.

  6. The NASA Continuous Risk Management Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pokorny, Frank M.

    2004-01-01

    As an intern this summer in the GRC Risk Management Office, I have become familiar with the NASA Continuous Risk Management Process. In this process, risk is considered in terms of the probability that an undesired event will occur and the impact of the event, should it occur (ref., NASA-NPG: 7120.5). Risk management belongs in every part of every project and should be ongoing from start to finish. Another key point is that a risk is not a problem until it has happened. With that in mind, there is a six step cycle for continuous risk management that prevents risks from becoming problems. The steps are: identify, analyze, plan, track, control, and communicate & document. Incorporated in the first step are several methods to identify risks such as brainstorming and using lessons learned. Once a risk is identified, a risk statement is made on a risk information sheet consisting of a single condition and one or more consequences. There can also be a context section where the risk is explained in more detail. Additionally there are three main goals of analyzing a risk, which are evaluate, classify, and prioritize. Here is where a value is given to the attributes of a risk &e., probability, impact, and timeframe) based on a multi-level classification system (e.g., low, medium, high). It is important to keep in mind that the definitions of these levels are probably different for each project. Furthermore the risks can be combined into groups. Then, the risks are prioritized to see what risk is necessary to mitigate first. After the risks are analyzed, a plan is made to mitigate as many risks as feasible. Each risk should be assigned to someone in the project with knowledge in the area of the risk. Then the possible approaches to choose from are: research, accept, watch, or mitigate. Next, all risks, mitigated or not, are tracked either individually or in groups. As the plan is executed, risks are re-evaluated, and the attribute values are adjusted as necessary. Metrics

  7. Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change

    PubMed Central

    Nicol, Sam; Fuller, Richard A.; Iwamura, Takuya; Chadès, Iadine

    2015-01-01

    Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this is the fear of making the wrong decisions caused by the myriad future scenarios presented to decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method for optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple future scenarios and continually learns the best management strategy from observations, even as conditions change. We demonstrate the performance of our AM approach by applying it to the spatial management of migratory shorebird habitats on the East Asian–Australasian flyway, predicted to be severely impacted by future sea-level rise. By accounting for non-stationary dynamics, our solution protects 25 000 more birds per year than the current best stationary approach. Our approach can be applied to many ecological systems that require efficient adaptation strategies for an uncertain future. PMID:25972463

  8. Managing multihazards risk in metropolitan USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aktan, A. Emin; Comfort, Louise K.; Shanis, Donald S.

    2003-07-01

    This proposal outlines an action plan for risk management in the Delaware Valley Metropolitan Region. This plan is consistent with the goals for strengthening homeland security announced by President Bush, and is designed to complement efforts currently under development by Pennsylvania Emergency Management Agency and Department of Health. This plan proposes the formation of a Delaware Valley Risk Management Consortium, representing the critical disciplines and organizations related to risk assessment and management. This group would have membership from academic institutions, government agencies, industry, and nonprofit organizations. This Consortium would develop a systemic scope of work with the appropriate recommendations for technology acquisition, development and integration with risk management policies and procedures. This scope of work would include the development of two related information systems for the Delaware Valley Region. The first would be a comprehensive 'health monitoring' system to assess the continuity of operations, which would use integrated remote sensing and imaging, information gathering, communication, computation, and, information processing and management over wide-area networks covering the entire metropolitan area. The second would use real-time information from the health monitoring system to support interactive communication, search and information exchange needed to coordinate action among the relevant agencies to mitigate risk, respond to hazards and manage its resources efficiently and effectively.

  9. Management of drought risk under global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Qiang; Han, Lanying; Jia, Jianying; Song, Lingling; Wang, Jinsong

    2016-07-01

    Drought is a serious ecological problem around the world, and its impact on crops and water availability for humans can jeopardize human life. Although drought has always been common, the drought risk has become increasingly prominent because of the climatic warming that has occurred during the past century. However, it still does not comprehensively understand the mechanisms that determine the occurrence of the drought risk it poses to humans, particularly in the context of global climate change. In this paper, we summarize the progress of research on drought and the associated risk, introduce the principle of a drought "transition" from one stage to another, synthesize the characteristics of key factors and their interactions, discuss the potential effect of climatic warming on drought risk, and use this discussion to define the basic requirements for a drought risk management system. We also discuss the main measures that can be used to prevent or mitigate droughts in the context of a risk management strategy.

  10. Brugada Syndrome:Risk Stratification And Management.

    PubMed

    Letsas Md Fesc, Konstantinos P; Georgopoulos Md, Stamatis; Vlachos Md, Konstantinos; Karamichalakis Md, Nikolaos; Liatakis Md, Ioannis; Korantzopoulos Md PhD, Panagiotis; Liu Md PhD, Tong; Efremidis Md, Michael; Sideris Md, Antonios

    2016-01-01

    The Brugada syndrome (BrS) is an arrhythmogenic disease associated with an increased risk of ventricular fibrillation and sudden cardiac death. The risk stratification and management of BrS patients, particularly of asymptomatic ones, still remains challenging. A previous history of aborted sudden cardiac death or arrhythmic syncope in the presence of spontaneous type 1 ECG pattern of BrS phenotype appear to be the most reliable predictors of future arrhythmic events. Several other ECG parameters have been proposed for risk stratification. Among these ECG markers, QRS-fragmentation appears very promising. Although the value of electrophysiological study still remains controversial, it appears to add important information on risk stratification, particularly when incorporated in multiparametric scores in combination with other known risk factors. The present review article provides an update on the pathophysiology, risk stratification and management of patients with BrS.

  11. Adapting livestock behaviour to achieve management goals

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Using livestock to efficiently achieve management goals requires melding animal behavior with mechanical and electronic equipment. Practices such as autonomously obtaining individual animal liveweight when combined with individual animal electronic identification can produce numerous cost saving ad...

  12. Improving Voluntary Environmental Management Programs: Facilitating Learning and Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Genskow, Kenneth D.; Wood, Danielle M.

    2011-05-01

    Environmental planners and managers face unique challenges understanding and documenting the effectiveness of programs that rely on voluntary actions by private landowners. Programs, such as those aimed at reducing nonpoint source pollution or improving habitat, intend to reach those goals by persuading landowners to adopt behaviors and management practices consistent with environmental restoration and protection. Our purpose with this paper is to identify barriers for improving voluntary environmental management programs and ways to overcome them. We first draw upon insights regarding data, learning, and adaptation from the adaptive management and performance management literatures, describing three key issues: overcoming information constraints, structural limitations, and organizational culture. Although these lessons are applicable to a variety of voluntary environmental management programs, we then present the issues in the context of on-going research for nonpoint source water quality pollution. We end the discussion by highlighting important elements for advancing voluntary program efforts.

  13. Lessons Learned in Risk Management on NCSX

    SciTech Connect

    G.H. Neilson, C.O. Gruber, J.H. Harris, D.J. Rej, R.T. Simmons, and R.L. Strykowsky

    2009-07-21

    The National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) was designed to test physics principles of an innovative stellarator design developed by the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Construction of some of the major components and sub-assemblies was completed, but the estimated cost and schedule for completing the project grew as the technical requirements and risks became better understood, leading to its cancellation in 2008. The project's risks stemmed from its technical challenges, primarily the complex component geometries and tight tolerances that were required. The initial baseline, established in 2004, was supported by a risk management plan and risk-based contingencies, both of which proved to be inadequate. Technical successes were achieved in the construction of challenging components and subassemblies, but cost and schedule growth was experienced. As part of an effort to improve project performance, a new risk management program was devised and implemented in 2007-08. It led to a better understanding of project risks, a sounder basis for contingency estimates, and improved management tools. Although the risks ultimately were unacceptable to the sponsor, valuable lessons in risk management were learned through the experiences with the NCSX project.

  14. Lessons Learned in Risk Management on NCSX

    SciTech Connect

    G.H. Neilson, C.O. Gruber, J.H. Harris, D.J. Rej, R.T. Simmons, and R.L. Strykowsky

    2009-02-11

    The National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) was designed to test physics principles of an innovative stellarator design developed by the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Construction of some of the major components and sub-assemblies was completed, but the estimated cost and schedule for completing the project grew as the technical requirements and risks became better understood, leading to its cancellation in 2008. The project's risks stemmed from its technical challenges, primarily the complex component geometries and tight tolerances that were required. The initial baseline, established in 2004, was supported by a risk management plan and risk-based contingencies, both of which proved to be inadequate. Technical successes were achieved in the construction of challenging components and subassemblies, but cost and schedule growth was experienced. As part of an effort to improve project performance, a new risk management program was devised and implemented in 2007-08. It led to a better understanding of project risks, a sounder basis for contingency estimates, and improved management tools. Although the risks ultimately were unacceptable to the sponsor, valuable lessons in risk management were learned through the experiences with the NCSX project.

  15. Risk management and clinical governance for complex home-based health care.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Mary; Noyes, Jane

    2007-07-01

    Healthcare professionals have an obligation to enable children with complex needs to lead 'ordinary lives' at home but the views of professionals and family members often diverge in relation to the management of risks. Nurses are increasingly taking on the clinical responsibility for children with complex needs within a multidisciplinary, multi-agency team, yet have little training or experience in adapting risk management and clinical governance frameworks to home-based settings. Risk management frameworks for home-based care for children with complex health and social care needs are introduced in this article. Best practice guidance and resources for adapting risk management frameworks are presented to meet this identified gap in knowledge and experience. Children, young people and their parents have increasing expectations relating to the type and quality of home-based support they receive. Developing and applying clinical governance and risk management frameworks are part of improving outcomes for children with complex needs and their families.

  16. Applications of Capstone Depleted Uranium Aerosol Risk Data to Military Combat Risk Management

    SciTech Connect

    Daxon, Eric G.; Parkhurst, MaryAnn; Melanson, Mark A.; Roszell, Laurie E.

    2009-03-01

    Risks to personnel engaged in military operations include not only the threat of enemy firepower but also risks from exposure to other hazards such as radiation. Combatant commanders of the U. S. Army carefully weigh risks of casualties before implementing battlefield actions using an established paradigm that take these risks into consideration. As a result of the inclusion of depleted uranium (DU) anti-armor ammunition in the conventional (non-nuclear) weapons arsenal, the potential for exposure to DU aerosols and its associated chemical and radiological effects becomes an element of the commanders’ risk assessment. The Capstone DU Aerosol Study measured the range of likely DU oxide aerosol concentrations created inside a combat vehicle perforated with a DU munition, and the Capstone Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA) estimated the associated doses and calculated risks. This paper focuses on the development of a scientific approach to adapt the risks from DU’s non uniform dose distribution within the body using the current U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) radiation risk management approach. The approach developed equates the Radiation Exposure Status (RES) categories to the estimated radiological risks of DU and makes use of the Capstone-developed Renal Effects Group (REG) as a measure of chemical risk from DU intake. Recommendations are provided for modifying Army guidance and policy in order to better encompass the potential risks from DU aerosol inhalation during military operations.

  17. Applications of Capstone depleted uranium aerosol risk data to military combat risk management.

    PubMed

    Daxon, Eric G; Parkhurst, Mary Ann; Melanson, Mark A; Roszell, Laurie E

    2009-03-01

    Risks to personnel engaged in military operations include not only the threat of enemy firepower but also risks from exposure to other hazards such as radiation. Combatant commanders of the U.S. Army carefully weigh risks of casualties before implementing battlefield actions using an established paradigm that takes these risks into consideration. As a result of the inclusion of depleted uranium (DU) anti-armor ammunition in the conventional (non-nuclear) weapons arsenal, the potential for exposure to DU aerosols and its associated chemical and radiological effects becomes an element of the commanders' risk assessment. The Capstone DU Aerosol Study measured the range of likely DU oxide aerosol concentrations created inside a combat vehicle perforated with a DU munition, and the Capstone Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA) estimated the associated doses and calculated risks. This paper focuses on the development of a scientific approach to adapt the risks from DU's non-uniform dose distribution within the body using the current U.S. Department of Defense radiation risk management approach. The approach developed equates the Radiation Exposure Status categories to the estimated radiological risks of DU and makes use of the Capstone-developed Renal Effects Group as a measure of chemical risk from DU intake. Recommendations are provided for modifying Army guidance and policy in order to better encompass the potential risks from DU aerosol inhalation during military operations.

  18. Cost effective management of space venture risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Giuntini, Ronald E.; Storm, Richard E.

    1986-01-01

    The development of a model for the cost-effective management of space venture risks is discussed. The risk assessment and control program of insurance companies is examined. A simplified system development cycle which consists of a conceptual design phase, a preliminary design phase, a final design phase, a construction phase, and a system operations and maintenance phase is described. The model incorporates insurance safety risk methods and reliability engineering, and testing practices used in the development of large aerospace and defense systems.

  19. Information needs for risk management/communication

    SciTech Connect

    Bennett, D.A.

    1990-12-31

    The hazardous waste cleanup program under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (Superfund) is delegated to the ten Regions of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and has, to date, identified more than 33,000 sites for consideration. The size and complexity of the program places great demands on those who would provide information to achieve national consistency in application of risk assessment while meeting site-specific needs for risk management and risk communication.

  20. Managing Risk on the Final Frontier

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lengyel, David M.; Newman, J. S.

    2009-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) has combined the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) discipline with innovative knowledge management (KM) practices to more effectively enable the accomplishment of work. CRM enables proactive problem identification and problem solving in the complex world of rocket science. while KM is used to improve this process.

  1. Adaptive and maladaptive personality traits in high-risk gamblers.

    PubMed

    Carlotta, Davide; Krueger, Robert F; Markon, Kristian E; Borroni, Serena; Frera, Fernanda; Somma, Antonella; Maffei, Cesare; Fossati, Andrea

    2015-06-01

    Gambling Disorder (GD) is an addictive disorder resulting in significant impairment in occupational and social functioning. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship of GD risk to adaptive and maladaptive personality dimensions in a sample of nonreferred Italian gamblers. The authors found the risk for GD to show significant associations with the Openness and Conscientiousness scales of the Big Five Inventory (BFI); however, these effects were not significant after controlling for alcohol and drug use. GD risk showed significant associations with the Detachment and Antagonism domains of the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 (PID-5), as well as with the PID-5 facet scales of Hostility, Callousness, Deceitfulness, Manipulativeness, Irresponsibility, and (low) Rigid Perfectionism, even when controlling for alcohol and drug use. Maladaptive personality dispositions may serve as risk factors for pathological gambling, even beyond their impact on frequently concomitant problems with alcohol and other drugs.

  2. Soft systems thinking and social learning for adaptive management.

    PubMed

    Cundill, G; Cumming, G S; Biggs, D; Fabricius, C

    2012-02-01

    The success of adaptive management in conservation has been questioned and the objective-based management paradigm on which it is based has been heavily criticized. Soft systems thinking and social-learning theory expose errors in the assumption that complex systems can be dispassionately managed by objective observers and highlight the fact that conservation is a social process in which objectives are contested and learning is context dependent. We used these insights to rethink adaptive management in a way that focuses on the social processes involved in management and decision making. Our approach to adaptive management is based on the following assumptions: action toward a common goal is an emergent property of complex social relationships; the introduction of new knowledge, alternative values, and new ways of understanding the world can become a stimulating force for learning, creativity, and change; learning is contextual and is fundamentally about practice; and defining the goal to be addressed is continuous and in principle never ends. We believe five key activities are crucial to defining the goal that is to be addressed in an adaptive-management context and to determining the objectives that are desirable and feasible to the participants: situate the problem in its social and ecological context; raise awareness about alternative views of a problem and encourage enquiry and deconstruction of frames of reference; undertake collaborative actions; and reflect on learning.

  3. Adaptive management for ecosystem services.

    PubMed

    Birgé, Hannah E; Allen, Craig R; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Pope, Kevin L

    2016-12-01

    Management of natural resources for the production of ecosystem services, which are vital for human well-being, is necessary even when there is uncertainty regarding system response to management action. This uncertainty is the result of incomplete controllability, complex internal feedbacks, and non-linearity that often interferes with desired management outcomes, and insufficient understanding of nature and people. Adaptive management was developed to reduce such uncertainty. We present a framework for the application of adaptive management for ecosystem services that explicitly accounts for cross-scale tradeoffs in the production of ecosystem services. Our framework focuses on identifying key spatiotemporal scales (plot, patch, ecosystem, landscape, and region) that encompass dominant structures and processes in the system, and includes within- and cross-scale dynamics, ecosystem service tradeoffs, and management controllability within and across scales. Resilience theory recognizes that a limited set of ecological processes in a given system regulate ecosystem services, yet our understanding of these processes is poorly understood. If management actions erode or remove these processes, the system may shift into an alternative state unlikely to support the production of desired services. Adaptive management provides a process to assess the underlying within and cross-scale tradeoffs associated with production of ecosystem services while proceeding with management designed to meet the demands of a growing human population.

  4. Adaptive management for ecosystem services (j/a) | Science ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Management of natural resources for the production of ecosystem services, which are vital for human well-being, is necessary even when there is uncertainty regarding system response to management action. This uncertainty is the result of incomplete controllability, complex internal feedbacks, and non-linearity that often interferes with desired management outcomes, and insufficient understanding of nature and people. Adaptive management was developed to reduce such uncertainty. We present a framework for the application of adaptive management for ecosystem services that explicitly accounts for cross-scale tradeoffs in the production of ecosystem services. Our framework focuses on identifying key spatiotemporal scales (plot, patch, ecosystem, landscape, and region) that encompass dominant structures and processes in the system, and includes within- and cross-scale dynamics, ecosystem service tradeoffs, and management controllability within and across scales. Resilience theory recognizes that a limited set of ecological processes in a given system regulate ecosystem services, yet our understanding of these processes is poorly understood. If management actions erode or remove these processes, the system may shift into an alternative state unlikely to support the production of desired services. Adaptive management provides a process to assess the underlying within and cross-scale tradeoffs associated with production of ecosystem services while proceeding with manage

  5. A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Management of ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Sea level rise is causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, including species of concern, such as the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus). We present a climate change adaptation strategy (CCAS) adopted by scientific, management, and policy stakeholders for managing coastal marshes and enhancing system resiliency. A common adaptive management approach previously used for restoration projects was modified to identify climate-related vulnerabilities and plan climate change adaptive actions. As an example of implementation of the CCAS, we describe the stakeholder plans and management actions the US Fish and Wildlife Service and partners developed to build coastal resiliency in the Narrow River Estuary, RI, in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. When possible, an experimental BACI (before-after, control-impact) design, described as pre- and post-sampling at the impact site and one or more control sites, was incorporated into the climate change adaptation and implementation plans. Specific climate change adaptive actions and monitoring plans are described and include shoreline stabilization, restoring marsh drainage, increasing marsh elevation, and enabling upland marsh migration. The CCAS provides a framework and methodology for successfully managing coa

  6. Recommendations for Insulin Dose Calculator Risk Management.

    PubMed

    Rees, Christen

    2014-01-01

    Several studies have shown the usefulness of an automated insulin dose bolus advisor (BA) in achieving improved glycemic control for insulin-using diabetes patients. Although regulatory agencies have approved several BAs over the past decades, these devices are not standardized in their approach to dosage calculation and include many features that may introduce risk to patients. Moreover, there is no single standard of care for diabetes worldwide and no guidance documents for BAs, specifically. Given the emerging and more stringent regulations on software used in medical devices, the approval process is becoming more difficult for manufacturers to navigate, with some manufacturers opting to remove BAs from their products altogether. A comprehensive literature search was performed, including publications discussing: diabetes BA use and benefit, infusion pump safety and regulation, regulatory submissions, novel BAs, and recommendations for regulation and risk management of BAs. Also included were country-specific and international guidance documents for medical device, infusion pump, medical software, and mobile medical application risk management and regulation. No definitive worldwide guidance exists regarding risk management requirements for BAs, specifically. However, local and international guidance documents for medical devices, infusion pumps, and medical device software offer guidance that can be applied to this technology. In addition, risk management exercises that are algorithm-specific can help prepare manufacturers for regulatory submissions. This article discusses key issues relevant to BA use and safety, and recommends risk management activities incorporating current research and guidance.

  7. Recommendations for Insulin Dose Calculator Risk Management

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Several studies have shown the usefulness of an automated insulin dose bolus advisor (BA) in achieving improved glycemic control for insulin-using diabetes patients. Although regulatory agencies have approved several BAs over the past decades, these devices are not standardized in their approach to dosage calculation and include many features that may introduce risk to patients. Moreover, there is no single standard of care for diabetes worldwide and no guidance documents for BAs, specifically. Given the emerging and more stringent regulations on software used in medical devices, the approval process is becoming more difficult for manufacturers to navigate, with some manufacturers opting to remove BAs from their products altogether. A comprehensive literature search was performed, including publications discussing: diabetes BA use and benefit, infusion pump safety and regulation, regulatory submissions, novel BAs, and recommendations for regulation and risk management of BAs. Also included were country-specific and international guidance documents for medical device, infusion pump, medical software, and mobile medical application risk management and regulation. No definitive worldwide guidance exists regarding risk management requirements for BAs, specifically. However, local and international guidance documents for medical devices, infusion pumps, and medical device software offer guidance that can be applied to this technology. In addition, risk management exercises that are algorithm-specific can help prepare manufacturers for regulatory submissions. This article discusses key issues relevant to BA use and safety, and recommends risk management activities incorporating current research and guidance. PMID:24876550

  8. Bridging the management-science partnership gap: Adaptive grazing management experiment in shortgrass steppe

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Adaptive Grazing Management experiment (2013-2023) in shortgrass steppe of Colorado addresses a critical gap in grazing management: lack of management-science partnerships to more fully understand the effect of management decisions for multiple ecosystem goods and services at ranch-scales. A Sta...

  9. Managing the Library Fire Risk.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morris, John

    A discussion of fire risks, causes, prevention, and salvage in libraries is presented in text and photographs. A description of some historic library fires demonstrates the value of adequate protection and preparedness programs to minimize loss and damage. The need for fire retardant construction and protection from valdalism and arson are…

  10. Risk Management in the Clinical Laboratory

    PubMed Central

    Njoroge, Sarah W

    2014-01-01

    Clinical laboratory tests play an integral role in medical decision-making and as such must be reliable and accurate. Unfortunately, no laboratory tests or devices are foolproof and errors can occur at pre-analytical, analytical and post-analytical phases of testing. Evaluating possible conditions that could lead to errors and outlining the necessary steps to detect and prevent errors before they cause patient harm is therefore an important part of laboratory testing. This can be achieved through the practice of risk management. EP23-A is a new guideline from the CLSI that introduces risk management principles to the clinical laboratory. This guideline borrows concepts from the manufacturing industry and encourages laboratories to develop risk management plans that address the specific risks inherent to each lab. Once the risks have been identified, the laboratory must implement control processes and continuously monitor and modify them to make certain that risk is maintained at a clinically acceptable level. This review summarizes the principles of risk management in the clinical laboratory and describes various quality control activities employed by the laboratory to achieve the goal of reporting valid, accurate and reliable test results. PMID:24982831

  11. 78 FR 54482 - Charter Renewal, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-09-04

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Charter Renewal, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of... the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group. The purpose of the Adaptive Management Work Group... Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group is in the public interest in connection with the performance...

  12. 76 FR 54487 - Charter Renewal, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-09-01

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Charter Renewal, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of... the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group. The purpose of the Adaptive Management Work Group... of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group is in the public interest in connection...

  13. 10 Commandments of Risk Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dworken, Bari S.

    1998-01-01

    Gives 10 strategies and examples for camp crisis-management: a written, implemented emergency plan; clear, honest communication; trained staff; good community relationships; learning from experience; knowing the local environment; preparing for the media; considering long-term impacts; avoiding adverse effects; and recognizing good things that…

  14. Bayesian adaptive survey protocols for resource management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Halstead, Brian J.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2011-01-01

    Transparency in resource management decisions requires a proper accounting of uncertainty at multiple stages of the decision-making process. As information becomes available, periodic review and updating of resource management protocols reduces uncertainty and improves management decisions. One of the most basic steps to mitigating anthropogenic effects on populations is determining if a population of a species occurs in an area that will be affected by human activity. Species are rarely detected with certainty, however, and falsely declaring a species absent can cause improper conservation decisions or even extirpation of populations. We propose a method to design survey protocols for imperfectly detected species that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty in the detection process, is capable of quantitatively incorporating expert opinion into the decision-making process, allows periodic updates to the protocol, and permits resource managers to weigh the severity of consequences if the species is falsely declared absent. We developed our method using the giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas), a threatened species precinctive to the Central Valley of California, as a case study. Survey date was negatively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake, and water temperature was positively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake at a sampled location. Reporting sampling effort, timing and duration of surveys, and water temperatures would allow resource managers to evaluate the probability that the giant gartersnake occurs at sampled sites where it is not detected. This information would also allow periodic updates and quantitative evaluation of changes to the giant gartersnake survey protocol. Because it naturally allows multiple sources of information and is predicated upon the idea of updating information, Bayesian analysis is well-suited to solving the problem of developing efficient sampling protocols for species of

  15. On valuing information in adaptive-management models.

    PubMed

    Moore, Alana L; McCarthy, Michael A

    2010-08-01

    Active adaptive management looks at the benefit of using strategies that may be suboptimal in the near term but may provide additional information that will facilitate better management in the future. In many adaptive-management problems that have been studied, the optimal active and passive policies (accounting for learning when designing policies and designing policy on the basis of current best information, respectively) are very similar. This seems paradoxical; when faced with uncertainty about the best course of action, managers should spend very little effort on actively designing programs to learn about the system they are managing. We considered two possible reasons why active and passive adaptive solutions are often similar. First, the benefits of learning are often confined to the particular case study in the modeled scenario, whereas in reality information gained from local studies is often applied more broadly. Second, management objectives that incorporate the variance of an estimate may place greater emphasis on learning than more commonly used objectives that aim to maximize an expected value. We explored these issues in a case study of Merri Creek, Melbourne, Australia, in which the aim was to choose between two options for revegetation. We explicitly incorporated monitoring costs in the model. The value of the terminal rewards and the choice of objective both influenced the difference between active and passive adaptive solutions. Explicitly considering the cost of monitoring provided a different perspective on how the terminal reward and management objective affected learning. The states for which it was optimal to monitor did not always coincide with the states in which active and passive adaptive management differed. Our results emphasize that spending resources on monitoring is only optimal when the expected benefits of the options being considered are similar and when the pay-off for learning about their benefits is large.

  16. Public Sector Reform and Governance for Adaptation: Implications of New Public Management for Adaptive Capacity in Mexico and Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eakin, Hallie; Eriksen, Siri; Eikeland, Per-Ove; Øyen, Cecilie

    2011-03-01

    Although many governments are assuming the responsibility of initiating adaptation policy in relation to climate change, the compatibility of "governance-for-adaptation" with the current paradigms of public administration has generally been overlooked. Over the last several decades, countries around the globe have embraced variants of the philosophy of administration broadly called "New Public Management" (NPM) in an effort to improve administrative efficiencies and the provision of public services. Using evidence from a case study of reforms in the building sector in Norway, and a case study of water and flood risk management in central Mexico, we analyze the implications of the adoption of the tenets of NPM for adaptive capacity. Our cases illustrate that some of the key attributes associated with governance for adaptation—namely, technical and financial capacities; institutional memory, learning and knowledge; and participation and accountability—have been eroded by NPM reforms. Despite improvements in specific operational tasks of the public sector in each case, we show that the success of NPM reforms presumes the existence of core elements of governance that have often been found lacking, including solid institutional frameworks and accountability. Our analysis illustrates the importance of considering both longer-term adaptive capacities and short-term efficiency goals in public sector administration reform.

  17. Climate change adaptation and Integrated Water Resource Management in the water sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ludwig, Fulco; van Slobbe, Erik; Cofino, Wim

    2014-10-01

    Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) was introduced in 1980s to better optimise water uses between different water demanding sectors. However, since it was introduced water systems have become more complicated due to changes in the global water cycle as a result of climate change. The realization that climate change will have a significant impact on water availability and flood risks has driven research and policy making on adaptation. This paper discusses the main similarities and differences between climate change adaptation and IWRM. The main difference between the two is the focus on current and historic issues of IWRM compared to the (long-term) future focus of adaptation. One of the main problems of implementing climate change adaptation is the large uncertainties in future projections. Two completely different approaches to adaptation have been developed in response to these large uncertainties. A top-down approach based on large scale biophysical impacts analyses focussing on quantifying and minimizing uncertainty by using a large range of scenarios and different climate and impact models. The main problem with this approach is the propagation of uncertainties within the modelling chain. The opposite is the bottom up approach which basically ignores uncertainty. It focusses on reducing vulnerabilities, often at local scale, by developing resilient water systems. Both these approaches however are unsuitable for integrating into water management. The bottom up approach focuses too much on socio-economic vulnerability and too little on developing (technical) solutions. The top-down approach often results in an “explosion” of uncertainty and therefore complicates decision making. A more promising direction of adaptation would be a risk based approach. Future research should further develop and test an approach which starts with developing adaptation strategies based on current and future risks. These strategies should then be evaluated using a range

  18. Risk management in pregnancy termination.

    PubMed

    Burnhill, M S

    1986-03-01

    This chapter reminds those who provide abortion services that crises are inevitable in the medical, counselling and administrative areas of the facility. After more than 10 years of providing safe, legal abortions, the author notes that the different types of crises that occur are already known and that it is possible to prepare for them. Indeed, it is necessary to prepare for a crisis before it occurs. The essence of crisis management is to: (a) identify each possible crisis and prepare a plan to cope with it, (b) train personnel to avert and/or manage a crisis, and to be sure that this training is carried out at appropriate intervals to provide sufficient trained staff at all times and (c) have on hand an up-to-date, adequate stock of the appropriate supplies and equipment to deal with medical and other emergencies. Four crisis management 'dicta' are given: Prepare yourself, your personnel, and your facility to be able to handle crisis. When a medical crisis, as listed, has occurred, the patient should be rapidly transported to the hospital and observed there for a suitable period of time. A medical crisis must be treated as the life-threatening event that it is, regardless of personal ego damage, social disruptions and/or financial considerations. The more personnel trained in cardiopulmonary resuscitation, the better.

  19. Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning.

    PubMed

    Lawler, Joshua J

    2009-04-01

    Recent rapid changes in the Earth's climate have altered ecological systems around the globe. Global warming has been linked to changes in physiology, phenology, species distributions, interspecific interactions, and disturbance regimes. Projected future climate change will undoubtedly result in even more dramatic shifts in the states of many ecosystems. These shifts will provide one of the largest challenges to natural resource managers and conservation planners. Managing natural resources and ecosystems in the face of uncertain climate requires new approaches. Here, the many adaptation strategies that have been proposed for managing natural systems in a changing climate are reviewed. Most of the recommended approaches are general principles and many are tools that managers are already using. What is new is a turning toward a more agile management perspective. To address climate change, managers will need to act over different spatial and temporal scales. The focus of restoration will need to shift from historic species assemblages to potential future ecosystem services. Active adaptive management based on potential future climate impact scenarios will need to be a part of everyday operations. And triage will likely become a critical option. Although many concepts and tools for addressing climate change have been proposed, key pieces of information are still missing. To successfully manage for climate change, a better understanding will be needed of which species and systems will likely be most affected by climate change, how to preserve and enhance the evolutionary capacity of species, how to implement effective adaptive management in new systems, and perhaps most importantly, in which situations and systems will the general adaptation strategies that have been proposed work and how can they be effectively applied.

  20. RISK MANAGEMENT OF SEDIMENT STRESS: A FRAMEWORK FOR SEDIMENT RISK MANAGEMENT RESEARCH

    EPA Science Inventory

    Research related to the ecological risk management of sediment stress in watersheds is placed under a common conceptual framework in order to help promote the timely advance of decision support methods for aquatic resource managers and watershed-level planning. The proposed risk ...

  1. [Thinking on risk assessment and risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine].

    PubMed

    Yu, Xueqing; Xie, Yanming; Wang, Yongyan

    2012-01-01

    Drug risk assessment and management is an important measure for reducing the adverse drug reaction and enhancing medication safety of the patient. Based on the concepts of drug risk assessment and risk management, and domestic and international drug risk management situation, this paper discusses the risk management of post-marketing Chinese medicine.

  2. Adaptive Management: From More Talk to Real Action

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Byron K.; Brown, Eleanor D.

    2014-02-01

    The challenges currently facing resource managers are large-scale and complex, and demand new approaches to balance development and conservation goals. One approach that shows considerable promise for addressing these challenges is adaptive management, which by now is broadly seen as a natural, intuitive, and potentially effective way to address decision-making in the face of uncertainties. Yet the concept of adaptive management continues to evolve, and its record of success remains limited. In this article, we present an operational framework for adaptive decision-making, and describe the challenges and opportunities in applying it to real-world problems. We discuss the key elements required for adaptive decision-making, and their integration into an iterative process that highlights and distinguishes technical and social learning. We illustrate the elements and processes of the framework with some successful on-the-ground examples of natural resource management. Finally, we address some of the difficulties in applying learning-based management, and finish with a discussion of future directions and strategic challenges.

  3. 14 CFR 121.495 - Fatigue risk management system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Fatigue risk management system. 121.495... Fatigue risk management system. (a) No certificate holder may exceed any provision of this subpart unless approved by the FAA under a Fatigue Risk Management System. (b) The Fatigue Risk Management System...

  4. 14 CFR 121.495 - Fatigue risk management system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Fatigue risk management system. 121.495... Fatigue risk management system. (a) No certificate holder may exceed any provision of this subpart unless approved by the FAA under a Fatigue Risk Management System. (b) The Fatigue Risk Management System...

  5. Managing dynamic epidemiological risks through trade

    PubMed Central

    Horan, Richard D.; Fenichel, Eli P.; Finnoff, David; Wolf, Christopher A.

    2015-01-01

    There is growing concern that trade, by connecting geographically isolated regions, unintentionally facilitates the spread of invasive pathogens and pests – forms of biological pollution that pose significant risks to ecosystem and human health. We use a bioeconomic framework to examine whether trade always increases private risks, focusing specifically on pathogen risks from live animal trade. When the pathogens have already established and traders bear some private risk, we find two results that run counter to the conventional wisdom on trade. First, uncertainty about the disease status of individual animals held in inventory may increase the incentives to trade relative to the disease-free case. Second, trade may facilitate reduced long-run disease prevalence among buyers. These results arise because disease risks are endogenous due to dynamic feedback processes involving valuable inventories, and markets facilitate the management of private risks that producers face with or without trade. PMID:25914431

  6. Adapting water allocation management to drought scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giacomelli, P.; Rossetti, A.; Brambilla, M.

    2008-04-01

    Climate change dynamics have significant consequences on water resources on a watershed scale. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variation, the planning and reallocation decisions in watershed management need to be reviewed. This research focuses on an in-depth understanding of the current allocation balance of water resources among competitors, placed along the course of the Adda River. In particular, during the summer period, the demand for water dramatically increases. This is due to the increase in irrigation activities in the lower part of the basin and to the highest peaks of tourist inflow, in the Como Lake and Valtellina areas. Moreover, during these months, the hydroelectric reservoirs in the upper part of the Adda River basin (the Valtellina) retain most of the volume of water coming from the snow and glacier melt. The existing allocation problem among these different competing users is exacerbated by the decreasing water supplies. The summer of 2003 testified the rise in a number of allocation problems and situations of water scarcity that brought about environmental and economical consequences. The RICLIC project is committed to the understanding of water dynamics on a regional scale, to quantify the volumes involved and offer local communities an instrument to improve a sustainable water management system, within uncertain climate change scenarios.

  7. Lessons Learned from the First Decade of Adaptive Management in Comprehensive Everglades Restoration

    EPA Science Inventory

    Although few successful examples of large-scale adaptive management applications are available to ecosystem restoration scientists and managers, examining where and how the components of an adaptive management program have been successfully implemented yields insight into what ...

  8. Towards integrative risk management and more resilient societies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Khudhairy, D.; Axhausen, K.; Bishop, S.; Herrmann, H.; Hu, B.; Kröger, W.; Lewis, T.; MacIntosh, J.; Nowak, A.; Pickl, S.; Stauffacher, D.; Tan, E.

    2012-11-01

    Society depends decisively on the availability of infrastructure systems such as energy, telecommunication, transportation, banking and finance, health care and governmental and public administration. Even selective damages of one of these infrastructures may result in disruptions of governmental, industrial or public functions. Vulnerability of infrastructures therefore provides spectacular leverage for natural disasters as well as criminal and terrorist actions. Threats and risks are part of the technological, economical, and societal development. This article focuses on the development and characterization of an integrative risk-management which, from the perspective of "resilient systems", can be seen as an innovative and pro-active crisis management approach dealing with the increasing amount of complexity in societies in a comprehensive, agile and adaptive way.

  9. Injury risk management plan for volleyball athletes.

    PubMed

    James, Lachlan P; Kelly, Vincent G; Beckman, Emma M

    2014-09-01

    Volleyball is an increasingly popular team sport. As with any competitive sport, there is an inherent risk of injury that must be recognized and collaboratively managed. This article provides a practical approach to the management of volleyball injuries within a team or organization. A brief review of the epidemiological data is presented which establishes (i) ankle sprain, (ii) shoulder overuse injury, (iii) patella tendinopathy, and (iv) anterior cruciate ligament injury as the primary injuries to address amongst these athletes. The interaction of modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors for these injuries are used to classify athletes into high-, medium- and low-risk groups. Targeted training interventions are suggested, based upon the risk level of the athlete, to minimize the occurrence of these injuries. Practical methods for integrating these activities into a training plan are also discussed.

  10. Modeling and Managing Risk in Billing Infrastructures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baiardi, Fabrizio; Telmon, Claudio; Sgandurra, Daniele

    This paper discusses risk modeling and risk management in information and communications technology (ICT) systems for which the attack impact distribution is heavy tailed (e.g., power law distribution) and the average risk is unbounded. Systems with these properties include billing infrastructures used to charge customers for services they access. Attacks against billing infrastructures can be classified as peripheral attacks and backbone attacks. The goal of a peripheral attack is to tamper with user bills; a backbone attack seeks to seize control of the billing infrastructure. The probability distribution of the overall impact of an attack on a billing infrastructure also has a heavy-tailed curve. This implies that the probability of a massive impact cannot be ignored and that the average impact may be unbounded - thus, even the most expensive countermeasures would be cost effective. Consequently, the only strategy for managing risk is to increase the resilience of the infrastructure by employing redundant components.

  11. Managing cardiovascular risk inpatients with metabolic syndrome.

    PubMed

    Nesto, Richard W

    2005-01-01

    The metabolic syndrome is a constellation of risk factors that contribute to the onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease (CVD). CVD has been identified by the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) as the primary clinical outcome of the metabolic syndrome. Although no algorithm is currently available for estimating the absolute risk of CVD for patients with the metabolic syndrome, screening for cardiovascular (CV) risk in these patients involves testing for lipoprotein abnormalities (namely, an analysis of specific low-density lipoprotein particle numbers) and an assessment of various surrogate markers for subclinical coronary artery disease. Such screening can be used to help predict the development of CVD and thereby allow for effective interventions to help prevent coronary events. Strategies for reducing CV risk in patients with the metabolic syndrome are multifactorial. In addition to placing an emphasis on therapeutic lifestyle changes that increase levels of physical activity, dietary modification, and weight reduction, several pharmacologic therapies are available. One novel approach for managing CV risk in patients with the metabolic syndrome involves the inhibition of the endocannabinoid system, including the use of rimonabant. A review of CV risk factors in patients with the metabolic syndrome is beneficial for clinicians to apply in the care of their patients, along with a discussion about strategies for identifying at-risk patients and managing CVD risk for these patients.

  12. A Holistic Management Architecture for Large-Scale Adaptive Networks

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-09-01

    MANAGEMENT ARCHITECTURE FOR LARGE-SCALE ADAPTIVE NETWORKS by Michael R. Clement September 2007 Thesis Advisor: Alex Bordetsky Second Reader...TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September 2007 Author: Michael R. Clement Approved by: Dr. Alex ...achieve in life is by His will. Ad Majorem Dei Gloriam. To my parents, my family, and Caitlin: For supporting me, listening to me when I got

  13. Flash Flood Risk Perception in an Italian Alpine Region. From Research into Adaptive Strategies.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scolobig, A.; de Marchi, B.; Borga, M.

    2009-04-01

    Flash floods are characterised by short lead times and high levels of uncertainty. Adaptive strategies to face them need to take into account not only the physical characteristics of the hydro-geological phenomena, but also peoples' risk perceptions, attitudes and behaviours in case of an emergency. It is quite obvious that a precondition for an effective adaptation, e.g. in the case of a warning, is the awareness of being endangered. At the same time the perceptions of those at risk and their likely actions inform hazard warning strategies and recovery programmes following such events. Usually low risk awareness or "wrong perceptions" of the residents are considered among the causes of an inadequate preparedness or response to flash floods as well as a symptom of a scarce self-protection culture. In this paper we will focus on flood risk perception and on how research on this topic may contribute to design adaptive strategies and give inputs to flood policy decisions. We will report on a flood risk perception study of the population residing in four villages in an Italian Alpine Region (Trentino Alto-Adige), carried out between October 2005 and January 2006. A total of 400 standardised questionnaires were submitted to local residents by face to face interviews. The surveys were preceded by focus groups with officers from agencies in charge of flood risk management and semi-structured and in-depth interviews with policy, scientific and technical experts. Survey results indicated that people are not so worried about hydro-geological phenomena, and think that their community is more endangered than themselves. The knowledge of the territory and danger sources, the unpredictability of flash floods and the feeling of safety induced by structural devices are the main elements which make the difference in shaping residents' perceptions. The study also demonstrated a widespread lack of adoption of preparatory measures among residents, together with a general low

  14. 75 FR 30106 - Terrorism Risk Insurance Program; Litigation Management Submissions

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-05-28

    ... Terrorism Risk Insurance Program; Litigation Management Submissions AGENCY: Departmental Offices. ACTION..., the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Office is seeking comments regarding Litigation Management..., preferably an original and two copies) to: Terrorism Risk Insurance Program, Public Comment Record,...

  15. Learning and adaptation in the management of waterfowl harvests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Fred A.

    2011-01-01

    A formal framework for the adaptive management of waterfowl harvests was adopted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in 1995. The process admits competing models of waterfowl population dynamics and harvest impacts, and relies on model averaging to compute optimal strategies for regulating harvest. Model weights, reflecting the relative ability of the alternative models to predict changes in population size, are used in the model averaging and are updated each year based on a comparison of model predictions and observations of population size. Since its inception the adaptive harvest program has focused principally on mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), which constitute a large portion of the U.S. waterfowl harvest. Four competing models, derived from a combination of two survival and two reproductive hypotheses, were originally assigned equal weights. In the last year of available information (2007), model weights favored the weakly density-dependent reproductive hypothesis over the strongly density-dependent one, and the additive mortality hypothesis over the compensatory one. The change in model weights led to a more conservative harvesting policy than what was in effect in the early years of the program. Adaptive harvest management has been successful in many ways, but nonetheless has exposed the difficulties in defining management objectives, in predicting and regulating harvests, and in coping with the tradeoffs inherent in managing multiple waterfowl stocks exposed to a common harvest. The key challenge now facing managers is whether adaptive harvest management as an institution can be sufficiently adaptive, and whether the knowledge and experience gained from the process can be reflected in higher-level policy decisions.

  16. Socio-hydrological modelling of floods: investigating community resilience, adaptation capacity and risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciullo, Alessio; Viglione, Alberto; Castellarin, Attilio

    2016-04-01

    Changes in flood risk occur because of changes in climate and hydrology, and in societal exposure and vulnerability. Research on change in flood risk has demonstrated that the mutual interactions and continuous feedbacks between floods and societies has to be taken into account in flood risk management. The present work builds on an existing conceptual model of an hypothetical city located in the proximity of a river, along whose floodplains the community evolves over time. The model reproduces the dynamic co-evolution of four variables: flooding, population density of the flooplain, amount of structural protection measures and memory of floods. These variables are then combined in a way to mimic the temporal change of community resilience, defined as the (inverse of the) amount of time for the community to recover from a shock, and adaptation capacity, defined as ratio between damages due to subsequent events. Also, temporal changing exposure, vulnerability and probability of flooding are also modelled, which results in a dynamically varying flood-risk. Examples are provided that show how factors such as collective memory and risk taking attitude influence the dynamics of community resilience, adaptation capacity and risk.

  17. Adaptive Management of Computing and Network Resources for Spacecraft Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pfarr, Barbara; Welch, Lonnie R.; Detter, Ryan; Tjaden, Brett; Huh, Eui-Nam; Szczur, Martha R. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    It is likely that NASA's future spacecraft systems will consist of distributed processes which will handle dynamically varying workloads in response to perceived scientific events, the spacecraft environment, spacecraft anomalies and user commands. Since all situations and possible uses of sensors cannot be anticipated during pre-deployment phases, an approach for dynamically adapting the allocation of distributed computational and communication resources is needed. To address this, we are evolving the DeSiDeRaTa adaptive resource management approach to enable reconfigurable ground and space information systems. The DeSiDeRaTa approach embodies a set of middleware mechanisms for adapting resource allocations, and a framework for reasoning about the real-time performance of distributed application systems. The framework and middleware will be extended to accommodate (1) the dynamic aspects of intra-constellation network topologies, and (2) the complete real-time path from the instrument to the user. We are developing a ground-based testbed that will enable NASA to perform early evaluation of adaptive resource management techniques without the expense of first deploying them in space. The benefits of the proposed effort are numerous, including the ability to use sensors in new ways not anticipated at design time; the production of information technology that ties the sensor web together; the accommodation of greater numbers of missions with fewer resources; and the opportunity to leverage the DeSiDeRaTa project's expertise, infrastructure and models for adaptive resource management for distributed real-time systems.

  18. Adaptive resource management and the value of information

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, Byron K.; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Breininger, David R.

    2011-01-01

    The value of information is a general and broadly applicable concept that has been used for several decades to aid in making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Yet there are relatively few examples of its use in ecology and natural resources management, and almost none that are framed in terms of the future impacts of management decisions. In this paper we discuss the value of information in a context of adaptive management, in which actions are taken sequentially over a timeframe and both future resource conditions and residual uncertainties about resource responses are taken into account. Our objective is to derive the value of reducing or eliminating uncertainty in adaptive decision making. We describe several measures of the value of information, with each based on management objectives that are appropriate for adaptive management. We highlight some mathematical properties of these measures, discuss their geometries, and illustrate them with an example in natural resources management. Accounting for the value of information can help to inform decisions about whether and how much to monitor resource conditions through time.

  19. Judging adaptive management practices of U.S. agencies.

    PubMed

    Fischman, Robert L; Ruhl, J B

    2016-04-01

    All U.S. federal agencies administering environmental laws purport to practice adaptive management (AM), but little is known about how they actually implement this conservation tool. A gap between the theory and practice of AM is revealed in judicial decisions reviewing agency adaptive management plans. We analyzed all U.S. federal court opinions published through 1 January 2015 to identify the agency AM practices courts found most deficient. The shortcomings included lack of clear objectives and processes, monitoring thresholds, and defined actions triggered by thresholds. This trio of agency shortcuts around critical, iterative steps characterizes what we call AM-lite. Passive AM differs from active AM in its relative lack of management interventions through experimental strategies. In contrast, AM-lite is a distinctive form of passive AM that fails to provide for the iterative steps necessary to learn from management. Courts have developed a sophisticated understanding of AM and often offer instructive rather than merely critical opinions. The role of the judiciary is limited by agency discretion under U.S. administrative law. But courts have overturned some agency AM-lite practices and insisted on more rigorous analyses to ensure that the promised benefits of structured learning and fine-tuned management have a reasonable likelihood of occurring. Nonetheless, there remains a mismatch in U.S. administrative law between the flexibility demanded by adaptive management and the legal objectives of transparency, public participation, and finality.

  20. Adaptive resource management and the value of information

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, B.K.; Eaton, M.J.; Breininger, D.R.

    2011-01-01

    The value of information is a general and broadly applicable concept that has been used for several decades to aid in making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Yet there are relatively few examples of its use in ecology and natural resources management, and almost none that are framed in terms of the future impacts of management decisions. In this paper we discuss the value of information in a context of adaptive management, in which actions are taken sequentially over a timeframe and both future resource conditions and residual uncertainties about resource responses are taken into account. Our objective is to derive the value of reducing or eliminating uncertainty in adaptive decision making. We describe several measures of the value of information, with each based on management objectives that are appropriate for adaptive management. We highlight some mathematical properties of these measures, discuss their geometries, and illustrate them with an example in natural resources management. Accounting for the value of information can help to inform decisions about whether and how much to monitor resource conditions through time. ?? 2011.

  1. A Pilot Test of a Graduate Course in Suicide Theory, Risk Assessment, and Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cramer, Robert J.; Bryson, Claire N.; Stroud, Caroline H.; Ridge, Brittany E.

    2016-01-01

    The present discussion outlines the design and initial implementation of a semester-long graduate course in suicide theory, risk assessment, and management. While the structure of the course is adaptable in light of various considerations (e.g., targeted group of students and availability of resources), we review suicide risk assessment core…

  2. Australian Defence Risk Management Framework: A Comparative Study

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-02-01

    contemplated well ahead of the traditional corporate and business - planning processes. There is also an upside to using risk management, i.e. improving...place to properly manage these risks; • To ensure that risk management is integrated into Defence�s business planning processes; and • To establish...and based on AS/NZS 4360:1999 and the Defence Risk Management Policy. It prescribes risk management to be integrated into the business planning process

  3. Fatigue Risk Management: A Maritime Framework

    PubMed Central

    Grech, Michelle Rita

    2016-01-01

    It is evident that despite efforts directed at mitigating the risk of fatigue through the adoption of hours of work and rest regulations and development of codes and guidelines, fatigue still remains a concern in shipping. Lack of fatigue management has been identified as a contributory factor in a number of recent accidents. This is further substantiated through research reports with shortfalls highlighted in current fatigue management approaches. These approaches mainly focus on prescriptive hours of work and rest and include an individualistic approach to managing fatigue. The expectation is that seafarers are responsible to manage and tolerate fatigue as part of their working life at sea. This attitude is an accepted part of a seafarer’s role. Poor compliance is one manifest of this problem with shipboard demands making it hard for seafarers to follow hours of work and rest regulations, forcing them into this “poor compliance” trap. This makes current fatigue management approaches ineffective. This paper proposes a risk based approach and way forward for the implementation of a fatigue risk management framework for shipping, aiming to support the hours of work and rest requirements. This forms part of the work currently underway to review and update the International Maritime Organization, Guidelines on Fatigue. PMID:26840326

  4. 62 FR 42818 - Glen Canyon Adaptive Management Work Group

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    1997-08-08

    ... Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Adaptive Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior... Work Group (AMWG) will be an open public meeting to discuss administrative and program related issues. This meeting will discuss the following agenda items: Work Group organization, technical work...

  5. Adaptive Knowledge Management of Project-Based Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tilchin, Oleg; Kittany, Mohamed

    2016-01-01

    The goal of an approach to Adaptive Knowledge Management (AKM) of project-based learning (PBL) is to intensify subject study through guiding, inducing, and facilitating development knowledge, accountability skills, and collaborative skills of students. Knowledge development is attained by knowledge acquisition, knowledge sharing, and knowledge…

  6. A Model for an Information Security Risk Management (ISRM) Framework for Saudi Arabian Organisations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alshareef, Naser

    2016-01-01

    Countries in the Gulf represent thriving, globally important commercial centres. They have embraced technology and modern management methods, often originating in the western countries. In adapting to quite different cultures these do not always operate as successfully. The adoption and practices of the Information Security Risk Management (ISRM)…

  7. NGNP Risk Management through Assessing Technology Readiness

    SciTech Connect

    John W. Collins

    2010-08-01

    Throughout the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) project life cycle, technical risks are identified, analyzed, and mitigated and decisions are made regarding the design and selection of plant and sub-system configurations, components and their fabrication materials, and operating conditions. Risk resolution and decision making are key elements that help achieve project completion within budget and schedule constraints and desired plant availability. To achieve this objective, a formal decision-making and risk management process was developed for NGNP, based on proven systems engineering principles that have guided aerospace and military applications.

  8. Watershed Conservation, Groundwater Management, and Adaptation to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roumasset, J.; Burnett, K.; Wada, C.

    2009-12-01

    Sustainability science is transdisciplinary, organizing research to deliver meaningful and practical contributions to critical issues of resource management. As yet, however, sustainability science has not been integrated with the policy sciences. We provide a step towards integration by providing an integrated model of optimal groundwater management and investment in watershed conservation. The joint optimization problem is solved under alternative forecasts of the changing rainfall distribution for the Koolau Watershed in Oahu, Hawaii. Optimal groundwater management is solved using a simplified one-dimensional model of the groundwater aquifer for analytical tractability. For a constant aquifer recharge, the model solves for the optimal trajectories of water extraction up to the desalination steady state and an incentive compatible pricing scheme. The Koolau Watershed is currently being degraded, however, by invasive plants such as Miconia calvescens and feral animals, especially wild pigs. Runoff and erosion have increased and groundwater recharge is at risk. The Koolau Partnership, a coalition of private owners, the State Department of Land and Natural Resources have proposed a $5 million (present value) conservation plan that promises to halt further losses of recharge. We compare this to the enhanced present value of the aquifer, showing the benefits are an order of magnitude greater than the costs. If conservation is done in the absence of efficient groundwater management, however, more than 40% of the potential benefits would be wasted by under-pricing and overconsumption. We require an estimate of the rainfall-generating distribution and how that distribution is changing over time. We obtain these from statistical downsizing of IPCC climate models. Despite the finding that global warming will increase precipitation for most of the world, the opposite is forecast for Hawaii. A University of Hawaii study finds that the most likely precipitation scenario is a

  9. Understanding barriers to implementation of an adaptive land management program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jacobson, S.K.; Morris, J.K.; Sanders, J.S.; Wiley, E.N.; Brooks, M.; Bennetts, R.E.; Percival, H.F.; Marynowski, S.

    2006-01-01

    The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission manages over 650,000 ha, including 26 wildlife management and environmental areas. To improve management, they developed an objective-based vegetation management (OBVM) process that focuses on desired conditions of plant communities through an adaptive management framework. Our goals were to understand potential barriers to implementing OBVM and to recommend strategies to overcome barriers. A literature review identified 47 potential barriers in six categories to implementation of adaptive and ecosystem management: logistical, communication, attitudinal, institutional, conceptual, and educational. We explored these barriers through a bureau-wide survey of 90 staff involved in OBVM and personal interviews with area managers, scientists, and administrators. The survey incorporated an organizational culture assessment instrument to gauge how institutional factors might influence OBVM implementation. The survey response rate was 69%. Logistics and communications were the greatest barriers to implementing OBVM. Respondents perceived that the agency had inadequate resources for implementing OBVM and provided inadequate information. About one-third of the respondents believed OBVM would decrease their job flexibility and perceived greater institutional barriers to the approach. The 43% of respondents who believed they would have more responsibility under OBVM also had greater attitudinal barriers. A similar percentage of respondents reported OBVM would not give enough priority to wildlife. Staff believed that current agency culture was hierarchical but preferred a culture that would provide more flexibility for adaptive management and would foster learning from land management activities. In light of the barriers to OBVM, we recommend the following: (1) mitigation of logistical barriers by addressing real and perceived constraints of staff, funds, and other resources in a participatory manner; (2) mitigation of

  10. Cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis: assessment, management and next steps

    PubMed Central

    Zegkos, Thomas; Kitas, George; Dimitroulas, Theodoros

    2016-01-01

    Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is associated with increased cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality which cannot be fully explained by traditional CV risk factors; cumulative inflammatory burden and antirheumatic medication-related cardiotoxicity seem to be important contributors. Despite the acknowledgment and appreciation of CV disease burden in RA, optimal management of individuals with RA represents a challenging task which remains suboptimal. To address this need, the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) published recommendations suggesting the adaptation of traditional risk scores by using a multiplication factor of 1.5 if two of three specific criteria are fulfilled. Such guidance requires proper coordination of several medical specialties, including general practitioners, rheumatologists, cardiologists, exercise physiologists and psychologists to achieve a desirable result. Tight control of disease activity, management of traditional risk factors and lifestyle modification represent, amongst others, the most important steps in improving CV disease outcomes in RA patients. Rather than enumerating studies and guidelines, this review attempts to critically appraise current literature, highlighting future perspectives of CV risk management in RA. PMID:27247635

  11. Managing hydroclimatic risks in federal rivers: a diagnostic assessment.

    PubMed

    Garrick, Dustin; De Stefano, Lucia; Fung, Fai; Pittock, Jamie; Schlager, Edella; New, Mark; Connell, Daniel

    2013-11-13

    Hydroclimatic risks and adaptive capacity are not distributed evenly in large river basins of federal countries, where authority is divided across national and territorial governments. Transboundary river basins are a major test of federal systems of governance because key management roles exist at all levels. This paper examines the evolution and design of interstate water allocation institutions in semi-arid federal rivers prone to drought extremes, climatic variability and intensified competition for scarce water. We conceptualize, categorize and compare federal rivers as social-ecological systems to analyse the relationship between governance arrangements and hydroclimatic risks. A diagnostic approach is used to map over 300 federal rivers and classify the hydroclimatic risks of three semi-arid federal rivers with a long history of interstate allocation tensions: the Colorado River (USA/Mexico), Ebro River (Spain) and Murray-Darling River (Australia). Case studies review the evolution and design of water allocation institutions. Three institutional design trends have emerged: adoption of proportional interstate allocation rules; emergence of multi-layered river basin governance arrangements for planning, conflict resolution and joint monitoring; and new flexibility to adjust historic allocation patterns. Proportional allocation rules apportion water between states based on a share of available water, not a fixed volume or priority. Interstate allocation reform efforts in the Colorado and Murray-Darling rivers indicate that proportional allocation rules are prevalent for upstream states, while downstream states seek reliable deliveries of fixed volumes to increase water security. River basin governance arrangements establish new venues for multilayered planning, monitoring and conflict resolution to balance self governance by users and states with basin-wide coordination. Flexibility to adjust historic allocation agreements, without risk of defection or costly

  12. Risk management for the Space Exploration Initiative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buchbinder, Ben

    1993-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a quantitative engineering process that provides the analytic structure and decision-making framework for total programmatic risk management. Ideally, it is initiated in the conceptual design phase and used throughout the program life cycle. Although PRA was developed for assessment of safety, reliability, and availability risk, it has far greater application. Throughout the design phase, PRA can guide trade-off studies among system performance, safety, reliability, cost, and schedule. These studies are based on the assessment of the risk of meeting each parameter goal, with full consideration of the uncertainties. Quantitative trade-off studies are essential, but without full identification, propagation, and display of uncertainties, poor decisions may result. PRA also can focus attention on risk drivers in situations where risk is too high. For example, if safety risk is unacceptable, the PRA prioritizes the risk contributors to guide the use of resources for risk mitigation. PRA is used in the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) Program. To meet the stringent requirements of the SEI mission, within strict budgetary constraints, the PRA structure supports informed and traceable decision-making. This paper briefly describes the SEI PRA process.

  13. Risk based management of piping systems

    SciTech Connect

    Conley, M.J.; Aller, J.E.; Tallin, A.; Weber, B.J.

    1996-07-01

    The API Piping Inspection Code is the first such Code to require classification of piping based on the consequences of failure, and to use this classification to influence inspection activity. Since this Code was published, progress has been made in the development of tools to improve on this approach by determining not only the consequences of failure, but also the likelihood of failure. ``Risk`` is defined as the product of the consequence and the likelihood. Measuring risk provides the means to formally manage risk by matching the inspection effort (costs) to the benefits of reduced risk. Using such a cost/benefit analysis allows the optimization of inspection budgets while meeting societal demands for reduction of the risk associated with process plant piping. This paper presents an overview of the tools developed to measure risk, and the methods to determine the effects of past and future inspections on the level of risk. The methodology is being developed as an industry-sponsored project under the direction of an API committee. The intent is to develop an API Recommended Practice that will be linked to In-Service Inspection Standards and the emerging Fitness for Service procedures. Actual studies using a similar approach have shown that a very high percentage of the risk due to piping in an operating facility is associated with relatively few pieces of piping. This permits inspection efforts to be focused on those piping systems that will result in the greatest risk reduction.

  14. RISK COMMUNICATION AS A RISK MANAGEMENT TOOL: A RISK COMMUNICATION WORKBOOK

    EPA Science Inventory

    Communicating information about environmental risk to the people most affected by it is one of the major challenges faced by risk managers and community decision makers. Changing human behavior is a far more complex task than designing water retention systems or managing storm wa...

  15. Improving Our Approach to Managing Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Adam

    2008-01-01

    Outdoor education--be it canoe tripping, adventure programs, field studies or anything else--is inherently risky. Outdoor educators deal with unpredictable settings and situations, where change is constant and outcomes are sometimes uncertain. In this naturalistic environment, their risk management procedures have the potential to break down and…

  16. UTILITY DATA ARCHIVING FOR RISK MANAGEMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA let a contract for a consultant to collect information about historical changes in operations and maintenance, design and construction, and planning and siting for water and wastewater infrastructure. The goal of this research study is to determine risk management alternativ...

  17. The Dynamics of Vulnerability and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Urban Water Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dilling, L.; Daly, M.; Travis, W.; Wilhelmi, O.; Klein, R.; Kenney, D.; Ray, A. J.; Miller, K.

    2013-12-01

    Recent reports and scholarship have suggested that adapting to current climate variability may represent a "no regrets" strategy for adapting to climate change. Filling "adaptation deficits" and other approaches that rely on addressing current vulnerabilities are of course helpful for responding to current climate variability, but we find here that they are not sufficient for adapting to climate change. First, following a comprehensive review and unique synthesis of the natural hazards and climate adaptation literatures, we advance six reasons why adapting to climate variability is not sufficient for adapting to climate change: 1) Vulnerability is different at different levels of exposure; 2) Coping with climate variability is not equivalent to adaptation to longer term change; 3) The socioeconomic context for vulnerability is constantly changing; 4) The perception of risk associated with climate variability does not necessarily promote adaptive behavior in the face of climate change; 5) Adaptations made to short term climate variability may reduce the flexibility of the system in the long term; and 6) Adaptive actions may shift vulnerabilities to other parts of the system or to other people. Instead we suggest that decision makers faced with choices to adapt to climate change must consider the dynamics of vulnerability in a connected system-- how choices made in one part of the system might impact other valued outcomes or even create new vulnerabilities. Furthermore we suggest that rather than expressing climate change adaptation as an extension of adaptation to climate variability, the research and practice communities would do well to articulate adaptation as an imperfect policy, with tradeoffs and consequences and that decisions be prioritized to preserve flexibility be revisited often as climate change unfolds. We then present the results of a number of empirical studies of decision making for drought in urban water systems in the United States to understand

  18. Rebalancing risk management--part 1: The Process for Active Risk Control (PARC).

    PubMed

    Card, Alan J; Ward, James R; Clarkson, P John

    2014-01-01

    Risk assessment, by itself, does nothing to reduce risk or improve safety. It can only change outcomes by informing the design and management of effective risk control interventions. But current practice in healthcare risk management suffers from an almost complete lack of support for risk control. This first installment of a 2-part series on rebalancing risk management describes a new framework to guide risk control practice: The Process for Active Risk Control.

  19. Accelerating adaptation of natural resource management to address climate change.

    PubMed

    Cross, Molly S; McCarthy, Patrick D; Garfin, Gregg; Gori, David; Enquist, Carolyn A F

    2013-02-01

    Natural resource managers are seeking tools to help them address current and future effects of climate change. We present a model for collaborative planning aimed at identifying ways to adapt management actions to address the effects of climate change in landscapes that cross public and private jurisdictional boundaries. The Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI) piloted the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) planning approach at workshops in 4 southwestern U.S. landscapes. This planning approach successfully increased participants' self-reported capacity to address climate change by providing them with a better understanding of potential effects and guiding the identification of solutions. The workshops fostered cross-jurisdictional and multidisciplinary dialogue on climate change through active participation of scientists and managers in assessing climate change effects, discussing the implications of those effects for determining management goals and activities, and cultivating opportunities for regional coordination on adaptation of management plans. Facilitated application of the ACT framework advanced group discussions beyond assessing effects to devising options to mitigate the effects of climate change on specific species, ecological functions, and ecosystems. Participants addressed uncertainty about future conditions by considering more than one climate-change scenario. They outlined opportunities and identified next steps for implementing several actions, and local partnerships have begun implementing actions and conducting additional planning. Continued investment in adaptation of management plans and actions to address the effects of climate change in the southwestern United States and extension of the approaches used in this project to additional landscapes are needed if biological diversity and ecosystem services are to be maintained in a rapidly changing world.

  20. An open framework for risk management

    SciTech Connect

    Craft, R.; Vandewart, R.; Wyss, G.; Funkhouser, D.

    1998-08-01

    Risk assessment methodologies are ready to enter their third generation. In this next generation, assessment will be based on a whole system understanding of the system to be assessed. To realize this vision of risk management, the authors have begun development of an extensible software tool kit. This tool kit breaks with the traditional approach to assessment by having the analyst spend the majority of the assessment time building an explicit model that documents in a single framework the various facets of the system, such as the system`s behavior, structure, and history. Given this explicit model of the system, a computer is able to automatically produce a standard assessment products, such as fault trees and event trees. This brings with it a number of advantages relative to current risk management tools. Among these are a greater sense of completeness and correctness in assessment results and the ability to preserve and later employ lessons learned.

  1. Role of Science, Policy, and Society in Adaptive Watershed Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webb, Richard M. T.

    2009-03-01

    Planning for an Uncertain Future: Monitoring, Integration, and Adaptation; Estes Park, Colorado, 8-11 September 2008; Water managers around the world are being tasked to include potential effects of climate change in their future operations scenarios. One important water manager, the federal government, owns and manages 30% of all land in the United States, the vast majority of which is in western states and Alaska. On 9 March 2007, the Secretary of the Interior signed Order 3270, which states that adaptive management should be considered when (1) there are consequential decisions to be made; (2) there is an opportunity to apply learning; (3) the objectives of management are clear; (4) the value of reducing uncertainty is high; (5) uncertainty can be expressed as a set of competing, testable models; and (6) an experimental design and monitoring system can be put in place with a reasonable expectation of reducing uncertainty. The Third Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds provided an appropriate forum to discuss science-driven resource management in the context of new adaptive management strategies. The conference was organized by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and cosponsored by the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc., the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Agricultural Research Service, the Natural Resources Conservation Service, the U.S. Forest Service, the National Park Service, the Bureau of Reclamation, the Bureau of Land Management, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

  2. Risk, resources and state-dependent adaptive behavioural syndromes.

    PubMed

    Luttbeg, Barney; Sih, Andrew

    2010-12-27

    Many animals exhibit behavioural syndromes-consistent individual differences in behaviour across two or more contexts or situations. Here, we present adaptive, state-dependent mathematical models for analysing issues about behavioural syndromes. We find that asset protection (where individuals with more 'assets' tend be more cautious) and starvation avoidance, two state-dependent mechanisms, can explain short-term behavioural consistency, but not long-term stable behavioural types (BTs). These negative-feedback mechanisms tend to produce convergence in state and behaviour over time. In contrast, a positive-feedback mechanism, state-dependent safety (where individuals with higher energy reserves, size, condition or vigour are better at coping with predators), can explain stable differences in personality over the long term. The relative importance of negative- and positive-feedback mechanisms in governing behavioural consistency depends on environmental conditions (predation risk and resource availability). Behavioural syndromes emerge more readily in conditions of intermediate ecological favourability (e.g. medium risk and medium resources, or high risk and resources, or low risk and resources). Under these conditions, individuals with higher initial state maintain a tendency to be bolder than individuals that start with low initial state; i.e. later BT is determined by state during an early 'developmental window'. In contrast, when conditions are highly favourable (low risk, high resources) or highly unfavourable (high risk, low resources), individuals converge to be all relatively bold or all relatively cautious, respectively. In those circumstances, initial differences in BT are not maintained over the long term, and there is no early developmental window where initial state governs later BT. The exact range of ecological conditions favouring behavioural syndromes depends also on the strength of state-dependent safety.

  3. Quality risk management in pharmaceutical development.

    PubMed

    Charoo, Naseem Ahmad; Ali, Areeg Anwer

    2013-07-01

    The objective of ICH Q8, Q9 and Q10 documents is application of systemic and science based approach to formulation development for building quality into product. There is always some uncertainty in new product development. Good risk management practice is essential for success of new product development in decreasing this uncertainty. In quality by design paradigm, the product performance properties relevant to the patient are predefined in target product profile (TPP). Together with prior knowledge and experience, TPP helps in identification of critical quality attributes (CQA's). Initial risk assessment which identifies risks to these CQA's provides impetus for product development. Product and process are designed to gain knowledge about these risks, devise strategies to eliminate or mitigate these risks and meet objectives set in TPP. By laying more emphasis on high risk events the protection level of patient is increased. The process being scientifically driven improves the transparency and reliability of the manufacturer. The focus on risk to the patient together with flexible development approach saves invaluable resources, increases confidence on quality and reduces compliance risk. The knowledge acquired in analysing risks to CQA's permits construction of meaningful design space. Within the boundaries of the design space, variation in critical material characteristics and process parameters must be managed in order to yield a product having the desired characteristics. Specifications based on product and process understanding are established such that product will meet the specifications if tested. In this way, the product is amenable to real time release, since specifications only confirm quality but they do not serve as a means of effective process control.

  4. Human System Risk Management for Space Flight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davis, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    This brief abstract reviews the development of the current day approach to human system risk management for space flight and the development of the critical components of this process over the past few years. The human system risk management process now provides a comprehensive assessment of each human system risk by design reference mission (DRM) and is evaluated not only for mission success but also for long-term health impacts for the astronauts. The discipline of bioastronautics is the study of the biological and medical effects of space flight on humans. In 1997, the Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) initiated the Bioastronautics Roadmap (Roadmap) as the "Critical Path Roadmap", and in 1998 participation in the roadmap was expanded to include the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) and the external community. A total of 55 risks and 250 questions were identified and prioritized and in 2000, the Roadmap was base-lined and put under configuration control. The Roadmap took into account several major advisory committee reviews including the Institute of Medicine (IOM) "Safe Passage: Astronaut care for Exploration Missions", 2001. Subsequently, three collaborating organizations at NASA HQ (Chief Health and Medical Officer, Office of Space Flight and Office of Biological & Physical Research), published the Bioastronautics Strategy in 2003, that identified the human as a "critical subsystem of space flight" and noted that "tolerance limits and safe operating bands must be established" to enable human space flight. These offices also requested a review by the IOM of the Roadmap and that review was published in October 2005 as "A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Exploration of Space: A Review of NASA's Bioastronautics Roadmap", that noted several strengths and weaknesses of the Roadmap and made several recommendations. In parallel with the development of the Roadmap, the Office of the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) began a process in

  5. DOD Financial Management: Ineffective Risk Management Could Impair Progress toward Audit-Ready Financial Statements

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-08-01

    DOD FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Ineffective Risk Management Could Impair Progress toward Audit-Ready Financial Statements...COVERED 00-00-2013 to 00-00-2013 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE DOD Financial Management: Ineffective Risk Management Could Impair Progress toward Audit...FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT Ineffective Risk Management Could Impair Progress toward Audit-Ready Financial Statements Why GAO Did This Study The National

  6. Using community archetypes to better understand differential community adaptation to wildfire risk.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Matthew; Paveglio, Travis

    2016-06-05

    One of the immediate challenges of wildfire management concerns threats to human safety and property in residential areas adjacent to non-cultivated vegetation. One approach for relieving this problem is to increase human community 'adaptiveness' to deal with the risk and reality of fire in a variety of landscapes. The challenge in creating 'fire-adapted communities' (FACs) is the great diversity in character and make-up of populations at risk from wildfire. This paper outlines a recently developed categorization scheme for Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) communities based on a larger conceptual approach for understanding how social diversity is likely to influence the creation of FACs. The WUI categorization scheme situates four community archetypes on a continuum that recognizes dynamic change in human community functioning. We use results from the WUI classification scheme to outline key characteristics associated with each archetype and results from recent case studies to demonstrate the diversity across WUI communities. Differences among key characteristics of local social context will likely result in the need for different adaptation strategies to wildfire. While the WUI archetypes described here may not be broadly applicable to other parts of the world, we argue that the conceptual approach and strategies for systematically documenting local influences on wildfire adaptation have potential for broad application.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'.

  7. 12 CFR 704.6 - Credit risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Credit risk management. 704.6 Section 704.6... CREDIT UNIONS § 704.6 Credit risk management. (a) Policies. A corporate credit union must operate according to a credit risk management policy that is commensurate with the investment risks and...

  8. 14 CFR 121.527 - Fatigue risk management system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Fatigue risk management system. 121.527... § 121.527 Fatigue risk management system. (a) No certificate holder may exceed any provision of this subpart unless approved by the FAA under a Fatigue Risk Management System. (b) The Fatigue Risk...

  9. 14 CFR 121.527 - Fatigue risk management system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Fatigue risk management system. 121.527... § 121.527 Fatigue risk management system. (a) No certificate holder may exceed any provision of this subpart unless approved by the FAA under a Fatigue Risk Management System. (b) The Fatigue Risk...

  10. Risk management activities at the DOE Class A reactor facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Sharp, D.A. ); Hill, D.J. ); Linn, M.A. ); Atkinson, S.A. ); Hu, J.P. )

    1993-01-01

    The probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and risk management group of the Association for Excellence in Reactor Operation (AERO) develops risk management initiatives and standards to improve operation and increase safety of the DOE Class A reactor facilities. Principal risk management applications that have been implemented at each facility are reviewed. The status of a program to develop guidelines for risk management programs at reactor facilities is presented.

  11. Risk management activities at the DOE Class A reactor facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Sharp, D.A.; Hill, D.J.; Linn, M.A.; Atkinson, S.A.; Hu, J.P.

    1993-12-31

    The probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and risk management group of the Association for Excellence in Reactor Operation (AERO) develops risk management initiatives and standards to improve operation and increase safety of the DOE Class A reactor facilities. Principal risk management applications that have been implemented at each facility are reviewed. The status of a program to develop guidelines for risk management programs at reactor facilities is presented.

  12. Designing Forest Adaptation Experiments through Manager-Scientist Partnerships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagel, L. M.; Swanston, C.; Janowiak, M.

    2014-12-01

    Three common forest adaptation options discussed in the context of an uncertain future climate are: creating resistance, promoting resilience, and enabling forests to respond to change. Though there is consensus on the broad management goals addressed by each of these options, translating these concepts into management plans specific for individual forest types that vary in structure, composition, and function remains a challenge. We will describe a decision-making framework that we employed within a manager-scientist partnership to develop a suite of adaptation treatments for two contrasting forest types as part of a long-term forest management experiment. The first, in northern Minnesota, is a red pine-dominated forest with components of white pine, aspen, paper birch, and northern red oak, with a hazel understory. The second, in southwest Colorado, is a warm-dry mixed conifer forest dominated by ponderosa pine, white fir, and Douglas-fir, with scattered aspen and an understory of Gambel oak. The current conditions at both sites are characterized by overstocking with moderate-to-high fuel loading, vulnerability to numerous forest health threats, and are generally uncharacteristic of historic structure and composition. The desired future condition articulated by managers for each site included elements of historic structure and natural range of variability, but were greatly tempered by known vulnerabilities and projected changes to climate and disturbance patterns. The resultant range of treatments we developed are distinct for each forest type, and address a wide range of management objectives.

  13. Meteorological risks as drivers of innovation for agroecosystem management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gobin, Anne; Van de Vyver, Hans; Zamani, Sepideh; Curnel, Yannick; Planchon, Viviane; Verspecht, Ann; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

    2015-04-01

    Devastating weather-related events recorded in recent years have captured the interest of the general public in Belgium. The MERINOVA project research hypothesis is that meteorological risks act as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management which is being tested using a "chain of risk" approach. The major objectives are to (1) assess the probability of extreme meteorological events by means of probability density functions; (2) analyse the extreme events impact of on agro-ecosystems using process-based bio-physical modelling methods; (3) identify the most vulnerable agro-ecosystems using fuzzy multi-criteria and spatial analysis; (4) uncover innovative risk management and adaptation options using actor-network theory and economic modelling; and, (5) communicate to research, policy and practitioner communities using web-based techniques. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theory was used to model annual rainfall maxima based on location-, scale- and shape-parameters that determine the centre of the distribution, the deviation of the location-parameter and the upper tail decay, respectively. Likewise the distributions of consecutive rainy days, rainfall deficits and extreme 24-hour rainfall were modelled. Spatial interpolation of GEV-derived return levels resulted in maps of extreme precipitation, precipitation deficits and wet periods. The degree of temporal overlap between extreme weather conditions and sensitive periods in the agro-ecosystem was determined using a bio-physically based modelling framework that couples phenological models, a soil water balance, crop growth and environmental models. 20-year return values were derived for frost, heat stress, drought, waterlogging and field access during different sensitive stages for different arable crops. Extreme yield values were detected from detrended long term arable yields and relationships were found with soil moisture conditions, heat stress or other meteorological variables during the

  14. Ecosystem services in risk assessment and management. ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The ecosystem services (ES) concept holds much promise for environmental decision making. Even so, the concept has yet to gain full traction in the decisions and policies of environmental agencies in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere. Here we examine the opportunities for and implications of including ES in risk assessments and the risk management decisions that they inform. We assert that use of ES will: 1) lead to more comprehensive environmental protection; 2) help to articulate the benefits of environmental decisions, policies, and actions; 3) better inform the derivation of environmental quality standards; 4) enable integration of human health and ecological risk assessment; and 5) facilitate horizontal integration of policies, regulations, and programs. We provide the technical basis and supporting rationale for each assertion, relying on examples taken from experiences in the United States and European Union. Specific recommendations are offered for use of ES in risk assessment and risk management, and issues and challenges to advancing use of ES are described along with some of the science needed to improve the value of the ES concept to environmental protection. This paper is one of 4 papers generated from the 2014 Pellston Workshop “Ecosystem Services, Environmental Stressors and Decision Making,” organized jointly by the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry and the Ecological Society of America. The main workshop objective was

  15. Breast cancer and spaceflight: risk and management.

    PubMed

    Barr, Yael R; Bacal, Kira; Jones, Jeffrey A; Hamilton, Douglas R

    2007-04-01

    Spaceflight exposes astronauts to a host of environmental factors which could increase their risk for cancer. Epidemiological studies have shown an increased incidence of breast cancer in female commercial flight attendants, with occupational risk factors as one of the proposed mechanisms for the higher incidence in this cohort. Since female astronauts are exposed to similar occupational conditions as flight attendants, they too may be at an increased risk for breast cancer. With the planning of exploration class missions to the Moon and to Mars it is important to assess and minimize the risk for breast malignancy, and to have a well-defined protocol for the diagnosis and treatment of a breast mass discovered during a mission. Risk factors for development of breast cancer in the female astronaut include ionizing radiation, disrupted melatonin homeostasis secondary to circadian shifting, chemical exposure, and changes in immune function. Preflight, in-flight, and postflight screening and management modalities include imaging and fine needle aspiration (FNA). Employing such a strategy may provide a viable management approach in the case of a newly diagnosed breast mass inflight.

  16. Predation risk influences adaptive morphological variation in fish populations.

    PubMed

    Eklöv, Peter; Svanbäck, Richard

    2006-03-01

    Predators can cause a shift in both density and frequency of a prey phenotype that may lead to phenotypic divergence through natural selection. What is less investigated is that predators have a variety of indirect effects on prey that could potentially have large evolutionary responses. We conducted a pond experiment to test whether differences in predation risk in different habitats caused shifts in behavior of prey that, in turn, would affect their morphology. We also tested whether the experimental data could explain the morphological variation of perch in the natural environment. In the experiment, predators caused the prey fish to shift to the habitat with the lower predation risk. The prey specialized on habitat-specific resources, and there was a strong correlation between diet of the prey fish and morphological variation, suggesting that resource specialization ultimately affected the morphology. The lack of differences in competition and mortality suggest that the morphological variation among prey was induced by differences in predation risk among habitats. The field study demonstrated that there are differences in growth related to morphology of perch in two different habitats. Thus, a trade-off between foraging and predator avoidance could be responsible for adaptive morphological variation of young perch.

  17. Quantifying fatigue risk in model-based fatigue risk management.

    PubMed

    Rangan, Suresh; Van Dongen, Hans P A

    2013-02-01

    The question of what is a maximally acceptable level of fatigue risk is hotly debated in model-based fatigue risk management in commercial aviation and other transportation modes. A quantitative approach to addressing this issue, referred to by the Federal Aviation Administration with regard to its final rule for commercial aviation "Flightcrew Member Duty and Rest Requirements," is to compare predictions from a mathematical fatigue model against a fatigue threshold. While this accounts for duty time spent at elevated fatigue risk, it does not account for the degree of fatigue risk and may, therefore, result in misleading schedule assessments. We propose an alternative approach based on the first-order approximation that fatigue risk is proportional to both the duty time spent below the fatigue threshold and the distance of the fatigue predictions to the threshold--that is, the area under the curve (AUC). The AUC approach is straightforward to implement for schedule assessments in commercial aviation and also provides a useful fatigue metric for evaluating thousands of scheduling options in industrial schedule optimization tools.

  18. Climate change adaptation through urban heat management in Atlanta, Georgia.

    PubMed

    Stone, Brian; Vargo, Jason; Liu, Peng; Hu, Yongtao; Russell, Armistead

    2013-07-16

    This study explores the potential effectiveness of metropolitan land cover change as a climate change adaptation strategy for managing rising temperatures in a large and rapidly warming metropolitan region of the United States. Through the integration of a mesoscale meteorological model with estimated land cover data for the Atlanta, Georgia region in 2010, this study quantifies the influence of extensive land cover change at the periphery of a large metropolitan region on temperature within the city center. The first study to directly model a metropolitan scale heat transfer mechanism, we find both enhanced tree canopy and impervious cover in the suburban zones of the Atlanta region to produce statistically significant cooling and warming effects in the urban core. Based on these findings, we conclude that urban heat island management both within and beyond the central developed core of large cities may provide an effective climate change adaptation strategy for large metropolitan regions.

  19. Risk Analysis Related to Quality Management Principles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vykydal, David; Halfarová, Petra; Nenadál, Jaroslav; Plura, Jiří; Hekelová, Edita

    2012-12-01

    Efficient and effective implementation of quality management principles asks for a responsible approach from top managers' perspectives. A study of the current state of affairs in Czech organizations discovers a lot of shortcomings in this field that can be changed to vary managerial risks. The article identifies and analyses some of them and gives short guidance for appropriate treatment. Text of the article reflects the authors' experience as well as knowledge obtained from the systematic analysis of industrial companies' environments.

  20. Mission Risk Reduction Regulatory Change Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scroggins, Sharon

    2007-01-01

    NASA Headquarters Environmental Management Division supports NASA's mission to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research by integrating environmental considerations into programs and projects early-on, thereby proactively reducing NASA's exposure to institutional, programmatic and operational risk. As part of this effort, NASA established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) as a resource for detecting, analyzing, and communicating environmental regulatory risks to the NASA stakeholder community. The RRAC PC focuses on detecting emerging environmental regulations and other operational change drivers that may pose risks to NASA programs and facilities, and effectively communicating the potential risks. For example, regulatory change may restrict how and where certain activities or operations may be conducted. Regulatory change can also directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage applications of certain materials. Regulatory change can result in significant adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities due to NASA's stringent performance requirements for materials and components related to human-rated space vehicles. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented a system for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the process utilized by the RRACPC to communicate regulatory change and the associated

  1. Adaptive management: a paradigm for remediation of public facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Janecky, David R; Whicker, Jeffrey J; Doerr, Ted B

    2009-01-01

    Public facility restoration planning traditionally focused on response to natural disasters and hazardous materials accidental releases. These plans now need to integrate response to terrorist actions. Therefore, plans must address a wide range of potential vulnerabilities. Similar types of broad remediation planning are needed for restoration of waste and hazardous material handling areas and facilities. There are strong similarities in damage results and remediation activities between unintentional and terrorist actions; however, the uncertainties associated with terrorist actions result in a re-evaluation of approaches to planning. Restoration of public facilities following a release of a hazardous material is inherently far more complex than in confined industrial settings and has many unique technical, economic, social, and political challenges. Therefore, they arguably involve a superset of drivers, concerns and public agencies compared to other restoration efforts. This superset of conditions increases complexity of interactions, reduces our knowledge of the initial conditions, and even condenses the timeline for restoration response. Therefore, evaluations of alternative restoration management approaches developed for responding to terrorist actions provide useful knowledge for large, complex waste management projects. Whereas present planning documents have substantial linearity in their organization, the 'adaptive management' paradigm provides a constructive parallel operations paradigm for restoration of facilities that anticipates and plans for uncertainty, multiple/simUltaneous public agency actions, and stakeholder participation. Adaptive management grew out of the need to manage and restore natural resources in highly complex and changing environments with limited knowledge about causal relationships and responses to restoration actions. Similarities between natural resource management and restoration of a facility and surrounding area(s) after a

  2. Adaptability in Crisis Management: The Role of Organizational Structure

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-06-01

    and hindrance stress : Relationships with exhaustion, motivation to learn, and learning performance. Journal of Applied Psychology , 89, 883-891...The notion of EOs is not new. Indeed, in organizational psychology and management sciences very similar concepts – for example, empowered self...role and implications of adaptability in relation to other aspects of teamwork and team effectiveness, for instance team cognition (e.g., shared

  3. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

  4. Management of Agricultural Weather Risks: traditional procedures and new management strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burgaz, F.

    2009-04-01

    Throughout history, agriculture has progressed as an outcome of farmers' efforts to design and apply adaptation strategies aiming to mitigate the impact of adverse meteorological phenomena on their farms' economy. The survival and sustainability of farmholdings, regardless of size or type of production, is directly related to their capacity to withstand the consequences of such phenomena and continue to yield a harvest year after year. While substantial differences can be identified in the intensity and frequency of the damage borne, depending on the country, region and type of production, no farm is exempt from the effects of uncontrollable risks. In this endeavour to mitigate such consequences and successfully manage natural risks, the first protective step must be taken by the farm itself, which must adopt measures that pursue more favourable crop development or a heightened ability to handle risks and their adverse effects. But when the damage inflicted is of an intensity that cannot be accommodated by the farmer, instruments must be deployed that spread or transfer risk to third parties, a process known as risk insurance. Experience shows that of the various such instruments in place, insurance constitutes the most appropriate risk management model and the one that has reached the highest levels of development and acceptance among farmers.

  5. Cultural resource management: The risk of compliance

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis, S.A.

    1994-02-01

    The statutory mandate for federal agencies to involve American Indians in the management of cultural resources may create a cultural risk for the people those statutes are intended to protect. A conceptual framework is given to help understand this dilemma. Factors that can exacerbate the severity of the adverse cultural impacts for tribal people are also examined. Policy recommendations are offered for reducing tensions among an the participants in the statutory process.

  6. Pathology and failure in the design and implementation of adaptive management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allen, Craig R.; Gunderson, Lance H.

    2011-01-01

    The conceptual underpinnings for adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex ecological systems as a result non-linear interactions among components and emergence, yet management decisions must still be made. The strength of adaptive management is in the recognition and confrontation of such uncertainty. Rather than ignore uncertainty, or use it to preclude management actions, adaptive management can foster resilience and flexibility to cope with an uncertain future, and develop safe to fail management approaches that acknowledge inevitable changes and surprises. Since its initial introduction, adaptive management has been hailed as a solution to endless trial and error approaches to complex natural resource management challenges. However, its implementation has failed more often than not. It does not produce easy answers, and it is appropriate in only a subset of natural resource management problems. Clearly adaptive management has great potential when applied appropriately. Just as clearly adaptive management has seemingly failed to live up to its high expectations. Why? We outline nine pathologies and challenges that can lead to failure in adaptive management programs. We focus on general sources of failures in adaptive management, so that others can avoid these pitfalls in the future. Adaptive management can be a powerful and beneficial tool when applied correctly to appropriate management problems; the challenge is to keep the concept of adaptive management from being hijacked for inappropriate use.

  7. Risk Management in ETS-8 Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Homma, M.

    2002-01-01

    Engineering Test Satellite - 8 (ETS-8) is the Japanese largest geo-synchronous satellite of 3 tons in mass, of which mission is mobile communications and navigation experiment. It is now in the flight model manufacturing phase. This paper introduces the risk management taken in this project as a reference. The mission success criteria of ETS-8 are described at first. All the risk management activities are planned taking these criteria into consideration. ETS-8 consists of many new technologies such as the large deployable antenna (19m x 17m), 64-bit MPU, 100 V solar paddle and so on. We have to pay attention to control these risk through each phase of development. In system design of ETS - 8, almost components have redundancy and there is some back-up function to avoid fatal failure. What kind of back-up function should be taken is one of the hot issues in this project. The consideration process is described as an actual case. In addition to conventional risk management procedure, FMEA and identification of the critical items so on, we conducted the validation experiment in space by use of a scale model that was launched on Ariane 5. The decision to conduct this kind of experiment is taken after evaluation between risk and cost, because it takes a lot of resources of project. The effect of this experiment is also presented. Failure detection, isolation and reconfiguration in the flight software are more important as the satellite system becomes large and complicated. We did the independent verification and validation to the software. Some remarks are noted with respect to its effectiveness.

  8. Cyanobacterial toxins: risk management for health protection

    SciTech Connect

    Codd, Geoffrey A.; Morrison, Louise F.; Metcalf, James S

    2005-03-15

    This paper reviews the occurrence and properties of cyanobacterial toxins, with reference to the recognition and management of the human health risks which they may present. Mass populations of toxin-producing cyanobacteria in natural and controlled waterbodies include blooms and scums of planktonic species, and mats and biofilms of benthic species. Toxic cyanobacterial populations have been reported in freshwaters in over 45 countries, and in numerous brackish, coastal, and marine environments. The principal toxigenic genera are listed. Known sources of the families of cyanobacterial toxins (hepato-, neuro-, and cytotoxins, irritants, and gastrointestinal toxins) are briefly discussed. Key procedures in the risk management of cyanobacterial toxins and cells are reviewed, including derivations (where sufficient data are available) of tolerable daily intakes (TDIs) and guideline values (GVs) with reference to the toxins in drinking water, and guideline levels for toxigenic cyanobacteria in bathing waters. Uncertainties and some gaps in knowledge are also discussed, including the importance of exposure media (animal and plant foods), in addition to potable and recreational waters. Finally, we present an outline of steps to develop and implement risk management strategies for cyanobacterial cells and toxins in waterbodies, with recent applications and the integration of Hazard Assessment Critical Control Point (HACCP) principles.

  9. Risk Management Is Everyone's Responsibility: Reminders for Entertainment Providers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Talarico, Scott

    1999-01-01

    Offers guidelines for risk management to campus entertainers and their representatives, including options for insurance coverage, types of insurance policies, and risk management for non-insurable factors associated with concerts and novelty events. (MSE)

  10. RISK MANAGEMENT EVALUATION FOR CONCENTRATED ANIMAL FEEDING OPERATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Risk Management Research Laboratory (NRMRL) developed a Risk Management Evaluation (RME) to provide information needed to help plan future research in the Laboratory dealing with the environmental impact of concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). Agriculture...

  11. Ecological risk assessment benefits environmental management

    SciTech Connect

    Fairbrother, A.; Kapustka, L.A.; Williams, B.A.; Glicken, J.

    1994-12-31

    The ecological risk assessment process in its ideal form is an unbiased approach for assessing the probability of harm to the environment as a consequence of a given action. This information can then be combined with other societal values and biases in the management of such risks. However, as the process currently is understood, decision makers often are accused of manipulating information in order to generate decisions or achieve buy in from the public in support of a particular political agenda. A clear understanding of the nature of the risk management process can help define areas where information should be free from social or personal bias, and areas where values and judgments are critical. The authors do not propose to discuss the individual`s decision-making process, but rather to address the social process of risk communication and environmentally-related decision-making, identifying which parts of that process require bias-free, scientifically generated information about the consequences of various actions and which parts need an understanding of the social values which underlie the informed choices among those possible actions.

  12. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  13. Bisphenol A and Risk Management Ethics

    PubMed Central

    Resnik, David B.; Elliot, Kevin C.

    2013-01-01

    It is widely recognized that endocrine disrupting compounds, such as Bisphenol A, pose challenges for traditional paradigms in toxicology, insofar as these substances appear to have a wider range of low-dose effects than previously recognized. These compounds also pose challenges for ethics and policymaking. When a chemical does not have significant low-dose effects, regulators can allow it to be introduced into commerce or the environment, provided that procedures and rules are in place to keep exposures below an acceptable level. This option allows society to maximize the benefits from the use of the chemical while minimizing risks to human health or the environment, and it represents a compromise between competing values. When it is not possible to establish acceptable exposure levels for chemicals that pose significant health or environmental risks, the most reasonable options for risk management may be to enact either partial or complete bans on their use. These options create greater moral conflict than other risk management strategies, leaving policymakers difficult choices between competing values. PMID:24471646

  14. The role of adaptive management as an operational approach for resource management agencies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, B.L.

    1999-01-01

    In making resource management decisions, agencies use a variety of approaches that involve different levels of political concern, historical precedence, data analyses, and evaluation. Traditional decision-making approaches have often failed to achieve objectives for complex problems in large systems, such as the Everglades or the Colorado River. I contend that adaptive management is the best approach available to agencies for addressing this type of complex problem, although its success has been limited thus far. Traditional decision-making approaches have been fairly successful at addressing relatively straightforward problems in small, replicated systems, such as management of trout in small streams or pulp production in forests. However, this success may be jeopardized as more users place increasing demands on these systems. Adaptive management has received little attention from agencies for addressing problems in small-scale systems, but I suggest that it may be a useful approach for creating a holistic view of common problems and developing guidelines that can then be used in simpler, more traditional approaches to management. Although adaptive management may be more expensive to initiate than traditional approaches, it may be less expensive in the long run if it leads to more effective management. The overall goal of adaptive management is not to maintain an optimal condition of the resource, but to develop an optimal management capacity. This is accomplished by maintaining ecological resilience that allows the system to react to inevitable stresses, and generating flexibility in institutions and stakeholders that allows managers to react when conditions change. The result is that, rather than managing for a single, optimal state, we manage within a range of acceptable outcomes while avoiding catastrophes and irreversible negative effects. Copyright ?? 1999 by The Resilience Alliance.

  15. Risk management-an industry approach.

    PubMed

    Huggett, A C

    2001-06-01

    An effective risk management system covering the whole process of food production from "farm to fork" is required by the food industry in order to assure that the food provided to consumers is safe. Food safety and quality assurance begins with the design and development of food products starting with product conceptualisation and continuing with the selection, purchasing, and evaluation of raw materials and with the specifications for processing, packaging and distribution. Within a larger quality management framework a number of tools have been developed by the food industry, which when used in an integrated fashion facilitate the management of food safety. These include good manufacturing practice (GMP), good hygiene practice (GHP) and HACCP (hazard analysis critical control point) as well as quality systems which allow the verification that all factors affecting the safety of a product are under control. Finally, regulations and systems can only function if they are applied. Everyone, from the farmer, the line operator in the manufacturing plant, to the person handling the food in distribution and sales, needs to be aware of his influence with regards safety. The effectiveness of safety awareness programs specific to each area is key to an industry approach to risk management.

  16. 69 FR 41278 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group; Notice of Renewal

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2004-07-08

    ... Office of the Secretary Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group; Notice of Renewal This notice is... of the Interior (Secretary) is renewing the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group. The purpose of the Adaptive Management Work Group is to advise and provide recommendations to the...

  17. 64 FR 173 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group; Notice of Renewal

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    1999-01-04

    ... Office of the Secretary Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group; Notice of Renewal This notice is... of the Interior (Secretary) is renewing the Glen Canyon Dam adaptive Management Work Group. The purpose of the Adaptive Management Work Group is to advise and provide recommendations to the...

  18. Adaptive Sampling Algorithms for Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Nuclear Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Diego Mandelli; Dan Maljovec; Bei Wang; Valerio Pascucci; Peer-Timo Bremer

    2013-09-01

    Nuclear simulations are often computationally expensive, time-consuming, and high-dimensional with respect to the number of input parameters. Thus exploring the space of all possible simulation outcomes is infeasible using finite computing resources. During simulation-based probabilistic risk analysis, it is important to discover the relationship between a potentially large number of input parameters and the output of a simulation using as few simulation trials as possible. This is a typical context for performing adaptive sampling where a few observations are obtained from the simulation, a surrogate model is built to represent the simulation space, and new samples are selected based on the model constructed. The surrogate model is then updated based on the simulation results of the sampled points. In this way, we attempt to gain the most information possible with a small number of carefully selected sampled points, limiting the number of expensive trials needed to understand features of the simulation space. We analyze the specific use case of identifying the limit surface, i.e., the boundaries in the simulation space between system failure and system success. In this study, we explore several techniques for adaptively sampling the parameter space in order to reconstruct the limit surface. We focus on several adaptive sampling schemes. First, we seek to learn a global model of the entire simulation space using prediction models or neighborhood graphs and extract the limit surface as an iso-surface of the global model. Second, we estimate the limit surface by sampling in the neighborhood of the current estimate based on topological segmentations obtained locally. Our techniques draw inspirations from topological structure known as the Morse-Smale complex. We highlight the advantages and disadvantages of using a global prediction model versus local topological view of the simulation space, comparing several different strategies for adaptive sampling in both

  19. NASA Risk Management Handbook. Version 1.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Benjamin, Allan; Everett, Christopher; Maggio, Gaspare; Stamatelatos, Michael; Youngblood, Robert; Guarro, Sergio; Rutledge, Peter; Sherrard, James; Smith, Curtis; Williams, Rodney

    2011-01-01

    to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular risk management issues that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when managing programs and projects in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced.

  20. A Risk Management Model for the Federal Acquisition Process.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1999-06-01

    risk management in the acquisition process. This research explains the Federal Acquisition Process and each of the 78 tasks to be completed by the CO...and examines the concepts of risk and risk management . This research culminates in the development of a model that identifies prevalent risks in the...contracting professionals is used to gather opinions, ideas, and practical applications of risk management in the acquisition process, and refine the model

  1. Experiences and Lessons Learned in Project Risk Management

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-07-15

    proceeds. A major task in project risk management is to assure that the ex- pected value of the projected outcome area does not materially deviate...Description of the bidder’s risk management plan covering cost, scheduling, and technical risks, together with the details of procedures and system for...Implementing the risk management plan. 4. As part of the bid evaluation, the government should compare the bidder’s risk analysis results with the

  2. Adaptive introgression as a resource for management and genetic conservation in a changing climate.

    PubMed

    Hamilton, Jill A; Miller, Joshua M

    2016-02-01

    Current rates of climate change require organisms to respond through migration, phenotypic plasticity, or genetic changes via adaptation. We focused on questions regarding species' and populations' ability to respond to climate change through adaptation. Specifically, the role adaptive introgression, movement of genetic material from the genome of 1 species into the genome of another through repeated interbreeding, may play in increasing species' ability to respond to a changing climate. Such interspecific gene flow may mediate extinction risk or consequences of limited adaptive potential that result from standing genetic variation and mutation alone, enabling a quicker demographic recovery in response to changing environments. Despite the near dismissal of the potential benefits of hybridization by conservation practitioners, we examined a number of case studies across different taxa that suggest gene flow between sympatric or parapatric sister species or within species that exhibit strong ecotypic differentiation may represent an underutilized management option to conserve evolutionary potential in a changing environment. This will be particularly true where advanced-generation hybrids exhibit adaptive traits outside the parental phenotypic range, a phenomenon known as transgressive segregation. The ideas presented in this essay are meant to provoke discussion regarding how we maintain evolutionary potential, the conservation value of natural hybrid zones, and consideration of their important role in adaptation to climate.

  3. 12 CFR 704.21 - Enterprise risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... background; and at least five years experience in identifying, assessing, and managing risk exposures. The... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Enterprise risk management. 704.21 Section 704... CORPORATE CREDIT UNIONS § 704.21 Enterprise risk management. (a) A corporate credit union must develop...

  4. 12 CFR 704.21 - Enterprise risk management.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... background; and at least five years experience in identifying, assessing, and managing risk exposures. The... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Enterprise risk management. 704.21 Section 704... CORPORATE CREDIT UNIONS § 704.21 Enterprise risk management. (a) A corporate credit union must develop...

  5. Operation Support Hope; Risk Management -- Leader’s Guide

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-08-01

    with the harsh environment. The solution is for commanders and other leaders to manage those risks. The risk - management process of hazard identification...policy cover, risk management is an effective tool to protect the force. That doesn’t mean we can throw away the book. What it does mean is that the

  6. 14 CFR 121.473 - Fatigue risk management system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Fatigue risk management system. 121.473...: Domestic Operations § 121.473 Fatigue risk management system. (a) No certificate holder may exceed any provision of this subpart unless approved by the FAA under a Fatigue Risk Management System. (b) The...

  7. 14 CFR 121.473 - Fatigue risk management system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Fatigue risk management system. 121.473...: Domestic Operations § 121.473 Fatigue risk management system. (a) No certificate holder may exceed any provision of this subpart unless approved by the FAA under a Fatigue Risk Management System. (b) The...

  8. 14 CFR 117.7 - Fatigue risk management system.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 3 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Fatigue risk management system. 117.7... LIMITATIONS AND REST REQUIREMENTS: FLIGHTCREW MEMBERS (EFF. 1-4-14) § 117.7 Fatigue risk management system. (a... Fatigue Risk Management System that provides at least an equivalent level of safety against...

  9. Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change

    PubMed Central

    Anthony, Kenneth RN; Marshall, Paul A; Abdulla, Ameer; Beeden, Roger; Bergh, Chris; Black, Ryan; Eakin, C Mark; Game, Edward T; Gooch, Margaret; Graham, Nicholas AJ; Green, Alison; Heron, Scott F; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Knowland, Cheryl; Mangubhai, Sangeeta; Marshall, Nadine; Maynard, Jeffrey A; McGinnity, Peter; McLeod, Elizabeth; Mumby, Peter J; Nyström, Magnus; Obura, David; Oliver, Jamie; Possingham, Hugh P; Pressey, Robert L; Rowlands, Gwilym P; Tamelander, Jerker; Wachenfeld, David; Wear, Stephanie

    2015-01-01

    Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local-scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio-economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience-Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press-type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse-type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo-Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on-the-ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on

  10. Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change.

    PubMed

    Anthony, Kenneth R N; Marshall, Paul A; Abdulla, Ameer; Beeden, Roger; Bergh, Chris; Black, Ryan; Eakin, C Mark; Game, Edward T; Gooch, Margaret; Graham, Nicholas A J; Green, Alison; Heron, Scott F; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Knowland, Cheryl; Mangubhai, Sangeeta; Marshall, Nadine; Maynard, Jeffrey A; McGinnity, Peter; McLeod, Elizabeth; Mumby, Peter J; Nyström, Magnus; Obura, David; Oliver, Jamie; Possingham, Hugh P; Pressey, Robert L; Rowlands, Gwilym P; Tamelander, Jerker; Wachenfeld, David; Wear, Stephanie

    2015-01-01

    Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local-scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio-economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience-Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press-type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse-type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo-Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on-the-ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on

  11. A Study of Disaster Adaptation Behavior and Risk Communication for watershed Area Resident - the Case of Kaoping River Watershed in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Te Pai, Jen; Chen, Yu-Yun; Huang, Kuan-Hua

    2016-04-01

    Along with the global climate change, the rainfall patterns become more centralized and cause natural disasters more frequently and heavily. Residents in river watersheds area are facing high risk of natural disasters and severe impacts, especially in Taiwan. From the experience of Typhoon Morakot in 2009, we learned that poor risk communication between the governments and the households and communities would lead to tremendous loss of property and life. Effective risk communication can trigger action to impending and current events. On the other hand, it can also build up knowledge on hazards and risks and encourage adaptation behaviors. Through the participation and cooperation of different stakeholders in disaster management, can reduce vulnerability, enhance adaptive capacity, improve the interaction between different stakeholders and also avoid conflicts. However, in Taiwan there are few studies about how households and communities perceive flood disaster risks, the process of risk communications between governments and households, or the relationship between risk communication and adaptation behaviors. Therefore, this study takes household and community of Kaoping River Watershed as study area. It aims to identify important factors in the process of disaster risk communication and find out the relationship between risk communication and adaptation behaviors. A framework of risk communication process was established to describe how to trigger adaptation behaviors and encourage adaptation behaviors with risk communication strategies. An ISM model was utilized to verify the framework by using household questionnaire survey. Moreover, a logit choice model was build to test the important factors for effective risk communication and adaption behavior. The result of this study would provide governments or relevant institutions suggestions about risk communication strategies and adaptation strategies to enhance the adaptive capacity of households and reduce the

  12. Enterprise Risk Management in the Great City Schools, Spring 2016

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, Scott B.; DeCato, Kristen Devan; George, Dave; Henderson, Dana; Henry, Aston A., Jr.; Hoch, Christopher

    2016-01-01

    Public schools have a mandate to educate children in a way that is safe, effective, and cost efficient. The risks involved in achieving that mandate have become increasingly complex, and the need to manage those risks has never been greater. The emergence of widespread, interconnected risks, such as cyber risks and data management, infrastructure…

  13. Flexible Ubiquitous Learning Management System Adapted to Learning Context

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeong, Ji-Seong; Kim, Mihye; Park, Chan; Yoo, Jae-Soo; Yoo, Kwan-Hee

    This paper proposes a u-learning management system (ULMS) appropriate to the ubiquitous learning environment, with emphasis on the significance of context awareness and adaptation in learning. The proposed system supports the basic functions of an e-learning management system and incorporates a number of tools and additional features to provide a more customized learning service. The proposed system automatically corresponds to various forms of user terminal without modifying the existing system. The functions, formats, and course learning activities of the system are dynamically and adaptively constructed at runtime according to user terminals, course types, pedagogical goals as well as student characteristics and learning context. A prototype for university use has been implemented to demonstrate and evaluate the proposed approach. We regard the proposed ULMS as an ideal u-learning system because it can not only lead students into continuous and mobile 'anytime, anywhere' learning using any kind of terminal, but can also foster enhanced self-directed learning through the establishment of an adaptive learning environment.

  14. A conceptual planning tool for mountain hazard and risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazzorana, Bruno; Fuchs, Sven

    2010-05-01

    Following the premises of integral risk management, comprehensive mitigation concepts have to be elaborated in a structured manner aiming to fulfil the requirements of effectiveness and efficiency. In order to achieve the optimal protection level against hazard processes, the planning process has to follow distinct guidelines that allow for a consistent management process. Thereby, the necessities of efficient risk reduction have to meet other commensurate requirements, such as ecological sustainability, technical reliability, feasibility of the concept itself even under changing system loadings, as well as an adapted maintenance strategy. Until now, only little work has been done to conceptualise such necessities from an integrative point of view. So far, most of the engineering strategies aimed either at maximising the hydraulic discharge capacity or the bed load retention, or at consolidating the streambed and limit the rate of bedload production. To overcome these shortcomings we propose a revision of the underlying planning process by means of a step-by-step approach. This approach will gear functionally efficient mitigation measures that are able to provide a higher degree of risk reduction than conventional mitigation strategies by including possible alternatives already in the early planning stages.

  15. Enhanced Capabilities for Subcritical Experiments (ECSE) Risk Management Plan

    SciTech Connect

    Urban, Mary Elizabeth

    2016-05-02

    Risk is a factor, element, constraint, or course of action that introduces an uncertainty of outcome that could impact project objectives. Risk is an inherent part of all activities, whether the activity is simple and small, or large and complex. Risk management is a process that identifies, evaluates, handles, and monitors risks that have the potential to affect project success. The risk management process spans the entire project, from its initiation to its successful completion and closeout, including both technical and programmatic (non-technical) risks. This Risk Management Plan (RMP) defines the process to be used for identifying, evaluating, handling, and monitoring risks as part of the overall management of the Enhanced Capabilities for Subcritical Experiments (ECSE) ‘Project’. Given the changing nature of the project environment, risk management is essentially an ongoing and iterative process, which applies the best efforts of a knowledgeable project staff to a suite of focused and prioritized concerns. The risk management process itself must be continually applied throughout the project life cycle. This document was prepared in accordance with DOE O 413.3B, Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets, its associated guide for risk management DOE G 413.3-7, Risk Management Guide, and LANL ADPM AP-350-204, Risk and Opportunity Management.

  16. Gender, Race, and Risk: Intersectional Risk Management in the Sale of Sex Online.

    PubMed

    Moorman, Jessica D; Harrison, Kristen

    2016-09-01

    Sex worker experience of risk (e.g., physical violence or rape) is shaped by race, gender, and context. For web-based sex workers, experience of risk is comparatively minimal; what is unclear is how web-based sex workers manage risk and if online advertising plays a role in risk management. Building on intersectionality theory and research exploring risk management in sex work, we content-analyzed 600 escort advertisements from Backpage.com ( http://www.backpage.com ) to explore risk management in web-based sex work. To guide our research we asked: Do advertisements contain risk management messages? Does the use of risk management messaging differ by sex worker race or gender? Which groups have the highest overall use of risk management messages? Through a multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) we found that advertisements contained risk management messages and that uses of these phrases varied by race and gender. Blacks, women, and transgender women drove the use of risk management messages. Black and White transgender women had the highest overall use of these phrases. We conclude that risk management is an intersectional practice and that the use of risk management messages is a venue-specific manifestation of broader risk management priorities found in all venues where sex is sold.

  17. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed Central

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a “gold standard” for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable. PMID:26322307

  18. Can Systematic Reviews Inform GMO Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

    PubMed

    Kohl, Christian; Frampton, Geoff; Sweet, Jeremy; Spök, Armin; Haddaway, Neal Robert; Wilhelm, Ralf; Unger, Stefan; Schiemann, Joachim

    2015-01-01

    Systematic reviews represent powerful tools to identify, collect, synthesize, and evaluate primary research data on specific research questions in a highly standardized and reproducible manner. They enable the defensible synthesis of outcomes by increasing precision and minimizing bias whilst ensuring transparency of the methods used. This makes them especially valuable to inform evidence-based risk analysis and decision making in various topics and research disciplines. Although seen as a "gold standard" for synthesizing primary research data, systematic reviews are not without limitations as they are often cost, labor and time intensive and the utility of synthesis outcomes depends upon the availability of sufficient and robust primary research data. In this paper, we (1) consider the added value systematic reviews could provide when synthesizing primary research data on genetically modified organisms (GMO) and (2) critically assess the adequacy and feasibility of systematic review for collating and analyzing data on potential impacts of GMOs in order to better inform specific steps within GMO risk assessment and risk management. The regulatory framework of the EU is used as an example, although the issues we discuss are likely to be more widely applicable.

  19. Adaptive Regulation of the Northern California Reservoir System for Water, Energy, and Environmental Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Georgakakos, A. P.; Kistenmacher, M.; Yao, H.; Georgakakos, K. P.

    2014-12-01

    The 2014 National Climate Assessment of the US Global Change Research Program emphasizes that water resources managers and planners in most US regions will have to cope with new risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities, and recommends the development of adaptive capacity to effectively respond to the new water resources planning and management challenges. In the face of these challenges, adaptive reservoir regulation is becoming all the more ncessary. Water resources management in Northern California relies on the coordinated operation of several multi-objective reservoirs on the Trinity, Sacramento, American, Feather, and San Joaquin Rivers. To be effective, reservoir regulation must be able to (a) account for forecast uncertainty; (b) assess changing tradeoffs among water uses and regions; and (c) adjust management policies as conditions change; and (d) evaluate the socio-economic and environmental benefits and risks of forecasts and policies for each region and for the system as a whole. The Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) prototype demonstration project operated in Northern California through the collaboration of several forecast and management agencies has shown that decision support systems (DSS) with these attributes add value to stakeholder decision processes compared to current, less flexible management practices. Key features of the INFORM DSS include: (a) dynamically downscaled operational forecasts and climate projections that maintain the spatio-temporal coherence of the downscaled land surface forcing fields within synoptic scales; (b) use of ensemble forecast methodologies for reservoir inflows; (c) assessment of relevant tradeoffs among water uses on regional and local scales; (d) development and evaluation of dynamic reservoir policies with explicit consideration of hydro-climatic forecast uncertainties; and (e) focus on stakeholder information needs.This article discusses the INFORM integrated design concept, underlying

  20. Risk management model in road transport systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakhapov, R. L.; Nikolaeva, R. V.; Gatiyatullin, M. H.; Makhmutov, M. M.

    2016-08-01

    The article presents the results of a study of road safety indicators that influence the development and operation of the transport system. Road safety is considered as a continuous process of risk management. Authors constructed a model that relates the social risks of a major road safety indicator - the level of motorization. The model gives a fairly accurate assessment of the level of social risk for any given level of motorization. Authors calculated the dependence of the level of socio-economic costs of accidents and injured people in them. The applicability of the concept of socio-economic damage is caused by the presence of a linear relationship between the natural and economic indicators damage from accidents. The optimization of social risk is reduced to finding the extremum of the objective function that characterizes the economic effect of the implementation of measures to improve safety. The calculations make it possible to maximize the net present value, depending on the costs of improving road safety, taking into account socio-economic damage caused by accidents. The proposed econometric models make it possible to quantify the efficiency of the transportation system, allow to simulate the change in road safety indicators.

  1. Management of Environmental Risks in Coastal Areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caprioli, M.; Trizzino, R.; Pagliarulo, R.; Scarano, M.; Mazzone, F.; Scognamiglio, A.

    2015-08-01

    The present work deals with the assessment and management of environmental risk conditions in a typical costal area of Southern Italy. This area, located in the Salento peninsula, is subject to recurrent widespread instability phenomena due to the presence of steep rocky cliffs. Along the coast there are numerous beach resorts that are very crowded in the summer season. The environmental hazard deriving from the possible rock falls is unacceptably high for the people safety. Moreover, the land-based mapping of the dangerous natural structures is very difficult and time and resources expending. In this context, we carried out an UAV survey along about 1 km of coast, near the towns of San Foca, Torre dell'Orso and Sant' Andrea ( Lecce, Southern Italy). The UAV platform was equipped with a photogrammetric measurement system that allowed us to obtain a mobile mapping of the fractured fronts of dangerous rocky cliffs. UAV-images data have been processed using dedicated software (Agisoft Photoscan). The total error obtained was of centimeter-order that is a very satisfactory result. The environmental information has been arranged in an ArcGIS platform in order to assess the risk levels. The possibility to repeat the survey at time intervals more or less close together depending on the measured levels of risk and to compare the output allows following the trend of the dangerous phenomena. In conclusion, for inaccessible locations of dangerous rocky bodies the UAV survey coupled with a GIS methodology proved to be a key engineering tool for the management of environmental risks.

  2. Managing Risk in USAF Force Planning

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. government responded to this problem in two ways.1 First, it developed a national strategy that bound the United States closely to critical...the U.S. government ignored low-level conflict during the Cold War. Rather, it managed risk in this area by using a diverse set of rel- atively...inexpensive tools. There was great concern in administrations from Truman’s to Rea- gan’s over Soviet and other communist government efforts to create or

  3. Risk management of liquefied natural gas installations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fedor, O. H.; Parsons, W. N.; Coutinho, J. De C.

    1976-01-01

    In connection with the construction of four major liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in New York City, the New York City Fire Commissioner has asked NASA for assistance. It was decided that the Kennedy Space Center should develop a risk management system (RMS) for the use of the New York Fire Department (NYFD). The RMS provides for a published set of safety regulations by the NYFD. A description of the RMS is presented as an example of an application of aerospace technology to a civilian sector, namely LNG facilities.

  4. Legal aspects of orthodontic practice: risk management concepts. Performing a risk management audit of your practice.

    PubMed

    Machen, D E

    1990-05-01

    In this and succeeding issues of the AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ORTHODONTICS AND DENTOFACIAL ORTHOPEDICS, factual risk management scenarios will be presented. These scenarios are based on composites of actual court cases that have been tried to verdict or decision. Valuable risk management lessons may be learned from careful analysis of the course of the events described. Please be advised that the standard of care determined in any case is specific for that jurisdiction and that set of facts as established by expert testimony for the prevailing party. Readers' comments may be addressed to Dr. Donald E. Machen, 5801 Beacon St., Pittsburgh, PA 15217.

  5. Risk management modeling and its application in maritime safety

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, Ting-Rong; Chen, Wei-Jiong; Zeng, Xiang-Kun

    2008-12-01

    Quantified risk assessment (QRA) needs mathematicization of risk theory. However, attention has been paid almost exclusively to applications of assessment methods, which has led to neglect of research into fundamental theories, such as the relationships among risk, safety, danger, and so on. In order to solve this problem, as a first step, fundamental theoretical relationships about risk and risk management were analyzed for this paper in the light of mathematics, and then illustrated with some charts. Second, man-machine-environment-management (MMEM) theory was introduced into risk theory to analyze some properties of risk. On the basis of this, a three-dimensional model of risk management was established that includes: a goal dimension; a management dimension; an operation dimension. This goal management operation (GMO) model was explained and then emphasis was laid on the discussion of the risk flowchart (operation dimension), which lays the groundwork for further study of risk management and qualitative and quantitative assessment. Next, the relationship between Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) and Risk Management was researched. This revealed that the FSA method, which the international maritime organization (IMO) is actively spreading, comes from Risk Management theory. Finally, conclusion were made about how to apply this risk management method to concrete fields efficiently and conveniently, as well as areas where further research is required.

  6. Hydrologic landscape units and adaptive management of intermountain wetlands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Custer, Stephen G.; Sojda, R.S.

    2006-01-01

    daptive management is often proposed to assist in the management of national wildlife refuges and allows the exploration of alternatives as well as the addition of ne w knowledge as it becomes available. The hydrological landscape unit can be a good foundation for such efforts. Red Rock Lakes National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) is in an intermountain basin dominated by vertical tectonics in the Northern Rocky Mountains. A geographic information system was used to define the boundaries for the hydrologic landscape units there. Units identified include alluvial fan, interfan, stream alluvi um and basin flat. Management alternatives can be informed by ex amination of processes that occu r on the units. For example, an ancient alluvial fan unit related to Red Rock Creek appear s to be isolated from stream flow today, with recharge dominated by precipitation and bedrock springs; while other alluvial fan units in the area have shallow ground water recharged from mountain streams and precipitation. The scale of hydrologic processes in interfan units differs from that in alluvial fan hydrologic landscape units. These differences are important when the refuge is evaluating habitat management activities. Hydrologic landscape units provide scientific unde rpinnings for the refuge’s comprehensive planning process. New geologic, hydrologic, and biologic knowledge can be integrated into the hydrologic landscape unit definition and improve adaptive management.

  7. Adaptive multibeam concepts for traffic management satellite systems.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bisaga, J. J.; Blank, H. A.; Klein, S. A.

    1973-01-01

    The analysis of the performance of the various implementations of the simultaneous system in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans has demonstrated that the use of adaptive system concepts in satellite traffic management systems can greatly improve the performance capabilities of these systems as compared to the corresponding performance capabilities of conventional nonadaptive satellite communications systems. It is considered that the techniques developed and analyzed represent a significant technological advance, and that the performance improvement achieved will generally outweigh the increased cost and implementation factors.

  8. A framework for responding to coral disease outbreaks that facilitates adaptive management.

    PubMed

    Beeden, Roger; Maynard, Jeffrey A; Marshall, Paul A; Heron, Scott F; Willis, Bette L

    2012-01-01

    Predicted increases in coral disease outbreaks associated with climate change have implications for coral reef ecosystems and the people and industries that depend on them. It is critical that coral reef managers understand these implications and have the ability to assess and reduce risk, detect and contain outbreaks, and monitor and minimise impacts. Here, we present a coral disease response framework that has four core components: (1) an early warning system, (2) a tiered impact assessment program, (3) scaled management actions and (4) a communication plan. The early warning system combines predictive tools that monitor the risk of outbreaks of temperature-dependent coral diseases with in situ observations provided by a network of observers who regularly report on coral health and reef state. Verified reports of an increase in disease prevalence trigger a tiered response of more detailed impact assessment, targeted research and/or management actions. The response is scaled to the risk posed by the outbreak, which is a function of the severity and spatial extent of the impacts. We review potential management actions to mitigate coral disease impacts and facilitate recovery, considering emerging strategies unique to coral disease and more established strategies to support reef resilience. We also describe approaches to communicating about coral disease outbreaks that will address common misperceptions and raise awareness of the coral disease threat. By adopting this framework, managers and researchers can establish a community of practice and can develop response plans for the management of coral disease outbreaks based on local needs. The collaborations between managers and researchers we suggest will enable adaptive management of disease impacts following evaluating the cost-effectiveness of emerging response actions and incrementally improving our understanding of outbreak causation.

  9. A Framework for Responding to Coral Disease Outbreaks that Facilitates Adaptive Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beeden, Roger; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; Marshall, Paul A.; Heron, Scott F.; Willis, Bette L.

    2012-01-01

    Predicted increases in coral disease outbreaks associated with climate change have implications for coral reef ecosystems and the people and industries that depend on them. It is critical that coral reef managers understand these implications and have the ability to assess and reduce risk, detect and contain outbreaks, and monitor and minimise impacts. Here, we present a coral disease response framework that has four core components: (1) an early warning system, (2) a tiered impact assessment program, (3) scaled management actions and (4) a communication plan. The early warning system combines predictive tools that monitor the risk of outbreaks of temperature-dependent coral diseases with in situ observations provided by a network of observers who regularly report on coral health and reef state. Verified reports of an increase in disease prevalence trigger a tiered response of more detailed impact assessment, targeted research and/or management actions. The response is scaled to the risk posed by the outbreak, which is a function of the severity and spatial extent of the impacts. We review potential management actions to mitigate coral disease impacts and facilitate recovery, considering emerging strategies unique to coral disease and more established strategies to support reef resilience. We also describe approaches to communicating about coral disease outbreaks that will address common misperceptions and raise awareness of the coral disease threat. By adopting this framework, managers and researchers can establish a community of practice and can develop response plans for the management of coral disease outbreaks based on local needs. The collaborations between managers and researchers we suggest will enable adaptive management of disease impacts following evaluating the cost-effectiveness of emerging response actions and incrementally improving our understanding of outbreak causation.

  10. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2016-11-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  11. Leader’s Guide to Force Protection through Risk Management

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1995-10-01

    Risk Management is designed to serve as both a quick and a comprehensive reference on risk management and force protection in today’s force-projection Army. It is intended for use by commanders and other leaders, planners, and operators in brigades, battalions, and smaller units. The first section defines risk management and illustrates the relationship between force protection and operations. Section 2 provides examples of hazards associated with common tasks and missions along with control measures to reduce risks

  12. Adaptive momentum management for the dual keel Space Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hopkins, M.; Hahn, E.

    1987-01-01

    The report discusses momentum management for a large space structure with the structure selected configuration being the Initial Orbital Configuration of the dual-keel Space Station. The external torques considered were gravity gradient and aerodynamic torques. The goal of the momentum management scheme developed is to remove the bias components of the external torques and center the cyclic components of the stored angular momentum. The scheme investigated is adaptive to uncertainties of the inertia tensor and requires only approximate knowledge of principal moments of inertia. Computational requirements are minimal and should present no implementation problem in a flight-type computer. The method proposed is shown to be effective in the presence of attitude control bandwidths as low as 0.01 radian/sec.

  13. Adaptive forest management for drinking water protection under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koeck, R.; Hochbichler, E.

    2012-04-01

    Drinking water resources drawn from forested catchment areas are prominent for providing water supply on our planet. Despite the fact that source waters stemming from forested watersheds have generally lower water quality problems than those stemming from agriculturally used watersheds, it has to be guaranteed that the forest stands meet high standards regarding their water protection functionality. For fulfilling these, forest management concepts have to be applied, which are adaptive regarding the specific forest site conditions and also regarding climate change scenarios. In the past century forest management in the alpine area of Austria was mainly based on the cultivation of Norway spruce, by the way neglecting specific forest site conditions, what caused in many cases highly vulnerable mono-species forest stands. The GIS based forest hydrotope model (FoHyM) provides a framework for forest management, which defines the most crucial parameters in a spatial explicit form. FoHyM stratifies the spacious drinking water protection catchments into forest hydrotopes, being operational units for forest management. The primary information layer of FoHyM is the potential natural forest community, which reflects the specific forest site conditions regarding geology, soil types, elevation above sea level, exposition and inclination adequately and hence defines the specific forest hydrotopes. For each forest hydrotope, the adequate tree species composition and forest stand structure for drinking water protection functionality was deduced, based on the plant-sociological information base provided by FoHyM. The most important overall purpose for the related elaboration of adaptive forest management concepts and measures was the improvement of forest stand stability, which can be seen as the crucial parameter for drinking water protection. Only stable forest stands can protect the fragile soil and humus layers and hence prevent erosion process which could endanger the water

  14. Evaluating mallard adaptive management models with time series

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Conn, P.B.; Kendall, W.L.

    2004-01-01

    Wildlife practitioners concerned with midcontinent mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) management in the United States have instituted a system of adaptive harvest management (AHM) as an objective format for setting harvest regulations. Under the AHM paradigm, predictions from a set of models that reflect key uncertainties about processes underlying population dynamics are used in coordination with optimization software to determine an optimal set of harvest decisions. Managers use comparisons of the predictive abilities of these models to gauge the relative truth of different hypotheses about density-dependent recruitment and survival, with better-predicting models giving more weight to the determination of harvest regulations. We tested the effectiveness of this strategy by examining convergence rates of 'predictor' models when the true model for population dynamics was known a priori. We generated time series for cases when the a priori model was 1 of the predictor models as well as for several cases when the a priori model was not in the model set. We further examined the addition of different levels of uncertainty into the variance structure of predictor models, reflecting different levels of confidence about estimated parameters. We showed that in certain situations, the model-selection process favors a predictor model that incorporates the hypotheses of additive harvest mortality and weakly density-dependent recruitment, even when the model is not used to generate data. Higher levels of predictor model variance led to decreased rates of convergence to the model that generated the data, but model weight trajectories were in general more stable. We suggest that predictive models should incorporate all sources of uncertainty about estimated parameters, that the variance structure should be similar for all predictor models, and that models with different functional forms for population dynamics should be considered for inclusion in predictor model! sets. All of these

  15. Risk management for assuring safe drinking water.

    PubMed

    Hrudey, Steve E; Hrudey, Elizabeth J; Pollard, Simon J T

    2006-12-01

    Millions of people die every year around the world from diarrheal diseases much of which is caused by contaminated drinking water. By contrast, drinking water safety is largely taken for granted by many citizens of affluent nations. The ability to drink water that is delivered into households without fear of becoming ill may be one of the key defining characteristics of developed nations in relation to the majority of the world. Yet there is well-documented evidence that disease outbreaks remain a risk that could be better managed and prevented even in affluent nations. A detailed retrospective analysis of more than 70 case studies of disease outbreaks in 15 affluent nations over the past 30 years provides the basis for much of our discussion [Hrudey, S.E. and Hrudey, E.J. Safe Drinking Water--Lessons from Recent Outbreaks in Affluent Nations. London, UK: IWA Publishing; 2004.]. The insights provided can assist in developing a better understanding within the water industry of the causes of drinking water disease outbreaks, so that more effective preventive measures can be adopted by water systems that are vulnerable. This preventive feature lies at the core of risk management for the provision of safe drinking water.

  16. Managing the Risk of Command File Errors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila; Bryant, Larry W.

    2013-01-01

    Command File Error (CFE), as defined by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's (JPL) Mission Operations Assurance (MOA) is, regardless of the consequence on the spacecraft, either: an error in a command file sent to the spacecraft, an error in the process for developing and delivering a command file to the spacecraft, or the omission of a command file that should have been sent to the spacecraft. The risk consequence of a CFE can be mission ending and thus a concern to space exploration projects during their mission operations. A CFE during space mission operations is often the symptom of some kind of imbalance or inadequacy within the system that comprises the hardware & software used for command generation and the human experts involved in this endeavour. As we move into an era of enhanced collaboration with other NASA centers and commercial partners, these systems become more and more complex and hence it is all the more important to formally model and analyze CFEs in order to manage the risk of CFEs. Here we will provide a summary of the ongoing efforts at JPL in this area and also explain some more recent developments in the area of developing quantitative models for the purpose of managing CFE's.

  17. Two-step Adaptive Management for choosing between two management actions.

    PubMed

    Moore, Alana L; Walker, Leila; Runge, Michael C; McDonald-Madden, Eve; McCarthy, Michael A

    2017-01-31

    Adaptive management is widely advocated to improve environmental management. Derivations of optimal strategies for adaptive management, however, tend to be case specific and time consuming. In contrast, managers might seek relatively simple guidance, such as insight into when a new potential management action should be considered, and how much effort should be expended on trialing such an action. We constructed a two time-step scenario where a manager is choosing between two possible management actions. The manager has a total budget which can be split between a learning phase and an implementation phase. We use this scenario to investigate when and how much a manager should invest in learning about the management actions available. The optimal investment in learning can be understood intuitively by accounting for the expected value of sample information, the benefits that accrue during learning, the direct costs of learning, and the opportunity costs of learning. We find that the optimal proportion of the budget to spend on learning is characterized by several critical thresholds that mark a jump from spending a large proportion of the budget on learning to spending nothing. For example, as sampling variance increases it is optimal to spend a larger proportion of the budget on learning, up to a point - if the sampling variance passes a critical threshold, it is no longer beneficial to invest in learning. Similar thresholds are observed as a function of the total budget and the difference in the expected performance of the two actions. We illustrate how this model can be applied using a case study of choosing between alternative rearing diets for hihi, an endangered New Zealand passerine. Although the model presented is a simplified scenario, we believe it is relevant to many management situations. Managers often have relatively short time horizons for management, and might be reluctant to consider further investment in learning and monitoring beyond collecting

  18. Clinical risk management of herb–drug interactions

    PubMed Central

    De Smet, Peter A G M

    2007-01-01

    The concomitant use of conventional and herbal medicines can lead to clinically relevant herb–drug interactions. Clinical risk management offers a systematic approach to minimize the untoward consequences of these interactions by paying attention to: (i) risk identification and assessment; (ii) development and execution of risk reduction strategies; and (iii) evaluation of risk reduction strategies. This paper reviews which steps should be explored or taken in these domains to improve the clinical risk management of adverse herb–drug interactions. PMID:17116126

  19. Evaluation of volcanic risk management in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bachri, S.; Stöetter, J.; Sartohadi, J.; Setiawan, M. A.

    2012-04-01

    Merapi (Central Java Province) and Bromo (East Java Province) volcanoes have human-environmental systems with unique characteristics, thus causing specific consequences on their risk management. Various efforts have been carried out by many parties (institutional government, scientists, and non-governmental organizations) to reduce the risk in these areas. However, it is likely that most of the actions have been done for temporary and partial purposes, leading to overlapping work and finally to a non-integrated scheme of volcanic risk management. This study, therefore, aims to identify and evaluate actions of risk and disaster reduction in Merapi and Bromo Volcanoes. To achieve this aims, a thorough literature review was carried out to identify earlier studies in both areas. Afterward, the basic concept of risk management cycle, consisting of risk assessment, risk reduction, event management and regeneration, is used to map those earlier studies and already implemented risk management actions in Merapi and Bromo. The results show that risk studies in Merapi have been developed predominantly on physical aspects of volcanic eruptions, i.e. models of lahar flows, hazard maps as well as other geophysical modeling. Furthermore, after the 2006 eruption of Merapi, research such on risk communication, social vulnerability, cultural vulnerability have appeared on the social side of risk management research. Apart from that, disaster risk management activities in the Bromo area were emphasizing on physical process and historical religious aspects. This overview of both study areas provides information on how risk studies have been used for managing the volcano disaster. This result confirms that most of earlier studies emphasize on the risk assessment and only few of them consider the risk reduction phase. Further investigation in this field work in the near future will accomplish the findings and contribute to formulate integrated volcanic risk management cycles for both

  20. Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management

    SciTech Connect

    2015-12-01

    The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakage simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format. The DREAM tool is comprised of three main components: (1) a Java wizard used to configure and execute the simulations, (2) a visualization tool to view the domain space and optimization results, and (3) a plotting tool used to analyze the results. A secondary Java application is provided to aid users in converting common American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) output data to the standard DREAM hierarchical data format (HDF5). DREAM employs a simulated annealing approach that searches the solution space by iteratively mutating potential monitoring schemes built of various configurations of monitoring locations and leak detection parameters. This approach has proven to be orders of magnitude faster than an exhaustive search of the entire solution space. The user’s manual illustrates the program graphical user interface (GUI), describes the tool inputs, and includes an example application.

  1. Risk management support through India Remote Sensing Satellites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aparna, N.; Ramani, A. V.; Nagaraja, R.

    2014-11-01

    Remote Sensing along with Geographical Information System (GIS) has been proven as a very important tools for the monitoring of the Earth resources and the detection of its temporal variations. A variety of operational National applications in the fields of Crop yield estimation , flood monitoring, forest fire detection, landslide and land cover variations were shown in the last 25 years using the Remote Sensing data. The technology has proven very useful for risk management like by mapping of flood inundated areas identifying of escape routes and for identifying the locations of temporary housing or a-posteriori evaluation of damaged areas etc. The demand and need for Remote Sensing satellite data for such applications has increased tremendously. This can be attributed to the technology adaptation and also the happening of disasters due to the global climate changes or the urbanization. However, the real-time utilization of remote sensing data for emergency situations is still a difficult task because of the lack of a dedicated system (constellation) of satellites providing a day-to-day revisit of any area on the globe. The need of the day is to provide satellite data with the shortest delay. Tasking the satellite to product dissemination to the user is to be done in few hours. Indian Remote Sensing satellites with a range of resolutions from 1 km to 1 m has been supporting disasters both National & International. In this paper, an attempt has been made to describe the expected performance and limitations of the Indian Remote Sensing Satellites available for risk management applications, as well as an analysis of future systems Cartosat-2D, 2E ,Resourcesat-2R &RISAT-1A. This paper also attempts to describe the criteria of satellite selection for programming for the purpose of risk management with a special emphasis on planning RISAT-1(SAR sensor).

  2. Improving our legacy: incorporation of adaptive management into state wildlife action plans.

    PubMed

    Fontaine, Joseph J

    2011-05-01

    The loss of biodiversity is a mounting concern, but despite numerous attempts there are few large scale conservation efforts that have proven successful in reversing current declines. Given the challenge of biodiversity conservation, there is a need to develop strategic conservation plans that address species declines even with the inherent uncertainty in managing multiple species in complex environments. In 2002, the State Wildlife Grant program was initiated to fulfill this need, and while not explicitly outlined by Congress follows the fundamental premise of adaptive management, 'Learning by doing'. When action is necessary, but basic biological information and an understanding of appropriate management strategies are lacking, adaptive management enables managers to be proactive in spite of uncertainty. However, regardless of the strengths of adaptive management, the development of an effective adaptive management framework is challenging. In a review of 53 State Wildlife Action Plans, I found a keen awareness by planners that adaptive management was an effective method for addressing biodiversity conservation, but the development and incorporation of explicit adaptive management approaches within each plan remained elusive. Only ~25% of the plans included a framework for how adaptive management would be implemented at the project level within their state. There was, however, considerable support across plans for further development and implementation of adaptive management. By furthering the incorporation of adaptive management principles in conservation plans and explicitly outlining the decision making process, states will be poised to meet the pending challenges to biodiversity conservation.

  3. Improving our legacy: Incorporation of adaptive management into state wildlife action plans

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fontaine, J.J.

    2011-01-01

    The loss of biodiversity is a mounting concern, but despite numerous attempts there are few large scale conservation efforts that have proven successful in reversing current declines. Given the challenge of biodiversity conservation, there is a need to develop strategic conservation plans that address species declines even with the inherent uncertainty in managing multiple species in complex environments. In 2002, the State Wildlife Grant program was initiated to fulfill this need, and while not explicitly outlined by Congress follows the fundamental premise of adaptive management, 'Learning by doing'. When action is necessary, but basic biological information and an understanding of appropriate management strategies are lacking, adaptive management enables managers to be proactive in spite of uncertainty. However, regardless of the strengths of adaptive management, the development of an effective adaptive management framework is challenging. In a review of 53 State Wildlife Action Plans, I found a keen awareness by planners that adaptive management was an effective method for addressing biodiversity conservation, but the development and incorporation of explicit adaptive management approaches within each plan remained elusive. Only ???25% of the plans included a framework for how adaptive management would be implemented at the project level within their state. There was, however, considerable support across plans for further development and implementation of adaptive management. By furthering the incorporation of adaptive management principles in conservation plans and explicitly outlining the decision making process, states will be poised to meet the pending challenges to biodiversity conservation. ?? 2010 .

  4. Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Approach to Enterprise Risk Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauder, Stephen P.

    2014-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Division has implemented an innovative approach to Enterprise Risk Management under a unique governance structure and streamlined integration model. ESD's mission is to design and build the capability to extend human existence to deep space. The Enterprise consists of three Programs: Space Launch System (SLS), Orion, and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). The SLS is a rocket and launch system that will be capable of powering humans, habitats, and support systems to deep space. Orion will be the first spacecraft in history capable of taking humans to multiple destinations within deep space. GSDO is modernizing Kennedy's spaceport to launch spacecraft built and designed by both NASA and private industry. ESD's approach to Enterprise Risk Management is commensurate with affordability and a streamlined management philosophy. ESD Enterprise Risk Management leverages off of the primary mechanisms for integration within the Enterprise. The Enterprise integration approach emphasizes delegation of authority to manage and execute the majority of cross-program activities and products to the individual Programs, while maintaining the overall responsibility for all cross-program activities at the Division. The intent of the ESD Enterprise Risk Management approach is to improve risk communication, to avoid replication and/or contradictory strategies, and to minimize overhead process burden. This is accomplished by the facilitation and integration of risk information within ESD. The ESD Division risks, Orion risks, SLS risks, and GSDO risks are owned and managed by the applicable Program. When the Programs have shared risks with multiple consequences, they are jointly owned and managed. When a risk is associated with the integrated system that involves more than one Program in condition, consequence, or mitigation plan, it is considered an Exploration Systems Integration

  5. Risk Management for Sodium Fast Reactors.

    SciTech Connect

    Denman, Matthew R.; Groth, Katrina; Cardoni, Jeffrey N.; Wheeler, Timothy A.

    2015-01-01

    Accident management is an important component to maintaining risk at acceptable levels for all complex systems, such as nuclear power plants. With the introduction of self - correcting, or inherently safe, reactor designs the focus has shifted from management by operators to allowing the syste m's design to manage the accident. While inherently and passively safe designs are laudable, extreme boundary conditions can interfere with the design attributes which facilitate inherent safety , thus resulting in unanticipated and undesirable end states. This report examines an inherently safe and small sodium fast reactor experiencing a beyond design basis seismic event with the intend of exploring two issues : (1) can human intervention either improve or worsen the potential end states and (2) can a Bayes ian Network be constructed to infer the state of the reactor to inform (1). ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author s would like to acknowledge the U.S. Department of E nergy's Office of Nuclear Energy for funding this research through Work Package SR - 14SN100303 under the Advanced Reactor Concepts program. The authors also acknowledge the PRA teams at A rgonne N ational L aborator y , O ak R idge N ational L aborator y , and I daho N ational L aborator y for their continue d contributions to the advanced reactor PRA mission area.

  6. Risk taking and effective R&D management.

    PubMed

    Banholzer, William F; Vosejpka, Laura J

    2011-01-01

    Several key strategies can be used to manage the risk associated with innovation to create maximum value. These include balancing the timing of investments versus cash flows, management of fads, prioritization across the company, savvy portfolio management, and a system of metrics that measure real success. Successful R&D managers will do whatever is necessary to manage the risks associated with an R&D program and stick to their long-term strategy.

  7. 48 CFR 39.102 - Management of risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... CONTRACTING ACQUISITION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY General 39.102 Management of risk. (a) Prior to entering into a contract for information technology, an agency should analyze risks, benefits, and costs. (See... to manage and mitigate risk during the acquisition of information technology. Techniques include,...

  8. 48 CFR 39.102 - Management of risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... CONTRACTING ACQUISITION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY General 39.102 Management of risk. (a) Prior to entering into a contract for information technology, an agency should analyze risks, benefits, and costs. (See... to manage and mitigate risk during the acquisition of information technology. Techniques include,...

  9. 48 CFR 39.102 - Management of risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... CONTRACTING ACQUISITION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY General 39.102 Management of risk. (a) Prior to entering into a contract for information technology, an agency should analyze risks, benefits, and costs. (See... to manage and mitigate risk during the acquisition of information technology. Techniques include,...

  10. Step 7: Choose the "Best" Risk Management Alternative

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The ultimate purpose of the SRM tactical phase is to choose how to manage risk. Prior to this stage, we determined the sources of risk, identified the relevant management actions and estimated the likelihood of all known outcomes. Next, we combine this information with your personal risk preference...

  11. Managing the Risks of School District Special Events.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berlonghi, Alexander

    1991-01-01

    A school district's risk manager must provide the leadership in risk management for district special events. Tables list the following: (1) seven reasons for event failures, and preventive measures to take; (2) risk analysis checklist; and (3) event planning outline. (MLF)

  12. USING BIOASSAYS TO EVALUATE THE PERFORMANCE OF RISK MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Often, the performance of risk management techniques is evaluated by measuring the concentrations of the chemials of concern before and after risk management effoprts. However, using bioassays and chemical data provides a more robust understanding of the effectiveness of risk man...

  13. Influences on Adaptive Planning to Reduce Flood Risks among Parishes in South Louisiana.

    PubMed

    Paille, Mary; Reams, Margaret; Argote, Jennifer; Lam, Nina S-N; Kirby, Ryan

    2016-02-01

    Residents of south Louisiana face a range of increasing, climate-related flood exposure risks that could be reduced through local floodplain management and hazard mitigation planning. A major incentive for community planning to reduce exposure to flood risks is offered by the Community Rating System (CRS) of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The NFIP encourages local collective action by offering reduced flood insurance premiums for individual policy holders of communities where suggested risk-reducing measures have been implemented. This preliminary analysis examines the extent to which parishes (counties) in southern Louisiana have implemented the suggested policy actions and identifies key factors that account for variation in the implementation of the measures. More measures implemented results in higher CRS scores. Potential influences on scores include socioeconomic attributes of residents, government capacity, average elevation and past flood events. The results of multiple regression analysis indicate that higher CRS scores are associated most closely with higher median housing values. Furthermore, higher scores are found in parishes with more local municipalities that participate in the CRS program. The number of floods in the last five years and the revenue base of the parish does not appear to influence CRS scores. The results shed light on the conditions under which local adaptive planning to mitigate increasing flood risks is more likely to be implemented and offer insights for program administrators, researchers and community stakeholders.

  14. Influences on Adaptive Planning to Reduce Flood Risks among Parishes in South Louisiana

    PubMed Central

    Paille, Mary; Reams, Margaret; Argote, Jennifer; Lam, Nina S.-N.; Kirby, Ryan

    2016-01-01

    Residents of south Louisiana face a range of increasing, climate-related flood exposure risks that could be reduced through local floodplain management and hazard mitigation planning. A major incentive for community planning to reduce exposure to flood risks is offered by the Community Rating System (CRS) of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The NFIP encourages local collective action by offering reduced flood insurance premiums for individual policy holders of communities where suggested risk-reducing measures have been implemented. This preliminary analysis examines the extent to which parishes (counties) in southern Louisiana have implemented the suggested policy actions and identifies key factors that account for variation in the implementation of the measures. More measures implemented results in higher CRS scores. Potential influences on scores include socioeconomic attributes of residents, government capacity, average elevation and past flood events. The results of multiple regression analysis indicate that higher CRS scores are associated most closely with higher median housing values. Furthermore, higher scores are found in parishes with more local municipalities that participate in the CRS program. The number of floods in the last five years and the revenue base of the parish does not appear to influence CRS scores. The results shed light on the conditions under which local adaptive planning to mitigate increasing flood risks is more likely to be implemented and offer insights for program administrators, researchers and community stakeholders. PMID:27330828

  15. Use of documentary sources on past flood events for flood risk management and land planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cœur, Denis; Lang, Michel

    2008-09-01

    The knowledge of past catastrophic events can improve flood risk mitigation policy, with a better awareness against risk. As such historical information is usually available in Europe for the past five centuries, historians are able to understand how past society dealt with flood risk, and hydrologists can include information on past floods into an adapted probabilistic framework. In France, Flood Risk Mitigation Maps are based either on the largest historical known flood event or on the 100-year flood event if it is greater. Two actions can be suggested in terms of promoting the use of historical information for flood risk management: (1) the development of a regional flood data base, with both historical and current data, in order to get a good feedback on recent events and to improve the flood risk education and awareness; (2) the commitment to keep a persistent/perennial management of a reference network of hydrometeorological observations for climate change studies.

  16. 48 CFR 39.102 - Management of risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... are not limited to: prudent project management; use of modular contracting; thorough acquisition... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Management of risk. 39.102... CONTRACTING ACQUISITION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY General 39.102 Management of risk. (a) Prior to...

  17. 48 CFR 39.102 - Management of risk.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... are not limited to: prudent project management; use of modular contracting; thorough acquisition... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Management of risk. 39.102... CONTRACTING ACQUISITION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY General 39.102 Management of risk. (a) Prior to...

  18. Training Manual for Human Service Risk Managers. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Frank W.; And Others

    This manual is designed to educate human service agency management personnel involved in transportation about basic risk management principles and insurance issues. Chapter I illustrates the liability factors that create the insurance and risk management needs. Both legal and humanitarian obligations of human service agencies involved in…

  19. Risk Management and Crisis Response: Are You Prepared?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schirick, Ed

    2002-01-01

    How a camp responds to a crisis may determine whether it can survive financially. Effective risk management requires total commitment from ownership and management, and staff involvement. Steps in formulating a risk management plan include identifying all potential crises and their frequency and severity potential, developing responses,…

  20. Ho Chi Minh City adaptation to increasing risk of coastal and fluvial floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scussolini, Paolo; Lasage, Ralph

    2016-04-01

    Coastal megacities in southeast Asia are a hotspot of vulnerability to floods. In such contexts, the combination of fast socio-economic development and of climate change impacts on precipitation and sea level generates concerns about the flood damage to people and assets. This work focuses on Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, for which we estimate the present and future direct risk from river and coastal floods. A model cascade is used that comprises the Saigon river basin and the urban network, plus the land-use-dependent damaging process. Changes in discharge for five return periods are simulated, enabling the probabilistic calculation of the expected annual economic damage to assets, for differnt scenarios of global emissions, local socio-economic growth, and land subsidence, up to year 2100. The implementation of a range of adaptation strategies is simulated, including building dykes, elevating, creating reservoirs, managing water and sediment upstream, flood-proofing, halting groundwater abstraction. Results are presented on 1) the relative weight of each future driver in determining the flood risk of Ho Chi Minh, and 2) the efficiency and feasibility of each adaptation strategy.

  1. Boundary work for implementing adaptive management: A water sector application.

    PubMed

    Adem Esmail, Blal; Geneletti, Davide; Albert, Christian

    2017-03-24

    Boundary work, defined as effort to mediate between knowledge and action, is a promising approach for facilitating knowledge co-production for sustainable development. Here, we investigate a case study of knowledge co-production, to assess the applicability of boundary work as a conceptual framework to support implementing adaptive management in the water sector. We refer to a boundary work classification recently proposed by Clark et al., (2016), based on three types of knowledge uses, i.e. enlightenment, decision-, and negotiation-support, and three types of sources, i.e. personal expertise, single, and multiple communities of expertise. Our empirical results confirm boundary work has been crucial for the three types of knowledge use. For enlightenment and decision-support, effective interaction among knowledge producers and users was achieved through diverse boundary work practices, including joint agenda setting, and sharing of data and expertise. This initial boundary work eased subsequent knowledge co-production for decision-support and negotiations, in combination with stepping up of cooperation between relevant actors, suitable legislation and pressure for problem solving. Our analysis highlighted the temporal dimension matters - building trust around enlightenment first, and then using this as a basis for managing knowledge co-production for decision-, and negotiation support. We reconfirmed that boundary work is not a single time achievement, rather is a dynamic process, and we emphasized the importance of key actors driving the process, such as water utilities. Our results provide a rich case study of how strategic boundary work can facilitate knowledge co-production for adaptive management in the water sector. The boundary work practices employed here could also be transferred to other cases. Water utilities, as intermediaries between providers and beneficiaries of the important water-related ecosystem service of clean water provision, can indeed serve

  2. Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: The Roles of Trust in Sources of Climate Information, Climate Change Beliefs, and Perceived Risk.

    PubMed

    Arbuckle, J Gordon; Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

    2015-02-01

    Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers' trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management).

  3. Suicide risk assessment and suicide risk formulation: essential components of the therapeutic risk management model.

    PubMed

    Silverman, Morton M

    2014-09-01

    Suicide and other suicidal behaviors are often associated with psychiatric disorders and dysfunctions. Therefore, psychiatrists have significant opportunities to identify at-risk individuals and offer treatment to reduce that risk. Although a suicide risk assessment is a core competency requirement, many clinical psychiatrists lack the requisite training and skills to appropriately assess for suicide risk. Moreover, the standard of care requires psychiatrists to foresee the possibility that a patient might engage in suicidal behavior, hence to conduct a suicide risk formulation sufficient to guide triage and treatment planning. Based on data collected via a suicide risk assessment, a suicide risk formulation is a process whereby the psychiatrist forms a judgment about a patient's foreseeable risk of suicidal behavior in order to inform triage decisions, safety and treatment planning, and interventions to reduce risk. This paper addresses the components of this process in the context of the model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient developed at the Veterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) 19 Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center by Wortzel et al.

  4. Adaptive management: a paradigm for remediation of public facilities following a terrorist attack.

    PubMed

    Whicker, Jeffrey J; Janecky, David R; Doerr, Ted B

    2008-10-01

    Terrorist actions are aimed at maximizing harm (health, psychological, economical, and political) through the combined physical impacts of the act and fear. Immediate and effective response to a terrorist act is critical to limit human and environmental harm, effectively restore facility function, and maintain public confidence. Though there have been terrorist attacks in public facilities that we have learned from, overall our experiences in restoration of public facilities following a terrorist attack are limited. Restoration of public facilities following a release of a hazardous material is inherently far more complex than in industrial settings and has many unique technical, economic, social, and political challenges. For example, there may be a great need to quickly restore the facility to full operation and allow public access even though it was not designed for easy or rapid restoration, and critical information is needed for quantitative risk assessment and effective restoration must be anticipated to be incomplete and uncertain. Whereas present planning documents have substantial linearity in their organization, the "adaptive management" paradigm provides a constructive parallel paradigm for restoration of public facilities that anticipates and plans for uncertainty, inefficiencies, and stakeholder participation. Adaptive management grew out of the need to manage and restore natural resources in highly complex and changing environments with limited knowledge about causal relationships and responses to restoration actions. Similarities between natural resource management and restoration of a public facility after a terrorist attack suggest that integration of adaptive management principles explicitly into restoration processes will result in substantially enhanced and flexible responses necessary to meet the uncertainties of potential terrorist attacks.

  5. Adapting to a changing world: Implications for water management.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loucks, Daniel

    2010-05-01

    Everyone is aware that the world is changing, and that many of these changes will impact our water resource supplies and how they are used and managed. It's always a challenge to try to predict the future, especially the very uncertain distant future. But one thing is certain, the future environment our descendants will experience will differ from the economic, social, technological and natural conditions we experience today. Some aspects of the changes that are happening may not be under human control, but many are. And to the extent they are, we can influence that future. In this paper I attempt to speculate about a future some 40 to 50 years from now, and how water will need to be managed then. My goal is to motivate some thinking and discussion about how we as water managers can influence and prepare ourselves (or our successors) for that future. It will require collaboration among multiple disciplines to determine how best we as a profession can help society adapt to these changes, and this in turn will require all of us to learn how to work together more effectively than we do now. This theme fits in with the current interest in sustainability, for no matter how it is defined, sustainability makes us think about the long-term future. How do we develop and manage our natural and cultural resources in ways that benefit both us and future generations of people living on this earth? What will their needs and goals be? We don't know and that is the major challenge in deciding what decisions we might make today on their behalf. Here I attempt to identify the challenges and issues water managers could be addressing some 40 to 50 years from now, and what we in each of our disciplines, and together, can begin to do now to address them.

  6. Equipment management risk rating system based on engineering endpoints.

    PubMed

    James, P J

    1999-01-01

    The equipment management risk ratings system outlined here offers two significant departures from current practice: risk classifications are based on intrinsic device risks, and the risk rating system is based on engineering endpoints. Intrinsic device risks are categorized as physical, clinical and technical, and these flow from the incoming equipment assessment process. Engineering risk management is based on verification of engineering endpoints such as clinical measurements or energy delivery. This practice eliminates the ambiguity associated with ranking risk in terms of physiologic and higher-level outcome endpoints such as no significant hazards, low significance, injury, or mortality.

  7. Impact assessment of risk management interventions.

    PubMed

    Shryock, T R

    2012-04-01

    Much effort has been invested in the development and implementation of international recommendations to manage the risk of foodborne antimicrobial resistance, and monitoring programmes to measure bacterial antimicrobial resistance and antimicrobial product volumes. A variety of approaches have been recommended for various stakeholders in the food animal and food production sectors. Interestingly, much less consideration has been given to the establishment of success criteria for the individual interventions and even less for the cumulative effects, when all interventions are considered together as consecutive 'hurdles' along the food chain. The author explores the outcome and unforeseen consequences of these various interventions and appropriate methods that could provide data to assess their impact, as well as key learning experiences that should lead to refinements of such interventions in the future.

  8. Designing monitoring programs in an adaptive management context for regional multiple species conservation plans

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Atkinson, A.J.; Trenham, P.C.; Fisher, R.N.; Hathaway, S.A.; Johnson, B.S.; Torres, S.G.; Moore, Y.C.

    2004-01-01

    critical management uncertainties; and 3) implementing long-term monitoring and adaptive management. Ultimately, the success of regional conservation planning depends on the ability of monitoring programs to confront the challenges of adaptively managing and monitoring complex ecosystems and diverse arrays of sensitive species.

  9. Deriving empirical benchmarks from existing monitoring datasets for rangeland adaptive management

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Under adaptive management, goals and decisions for managing rangeland resources are shaped by requirements like the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM’s) Land Health Standards, which specify desired conditions. Without formalized, quantitative benchmarks for triggering management actions, adaptive man...

  10. Risk Management Issues When Taking Locum Tenens Assignments

    PubMed Central

    Cash, Charles D.

    2017-01-01

    This ongoing column is dedicated to providing information to our readers on managing legal risks associated with medical practice. We invite questions from our readers. The answers are provided by PRMS, Inc. (www.prms.com), a manager of medical professional liability insurance programs with services that include risk management consultation, education and onsite risk management audits, and other resources to healthcare providers to help improve patient outcomes and reduce professional liability risk. The answers published in this column represent those of only one risk management consulting company. Other risk management consulting companies or insurance carriers may provide different advice, and readers should take this into consideration. The information in this column does not constitute legal advice. For legal advice, contact your personal attorney. Note: The information and recommendations in this article are applicable to physicians and other healthcare professionals so “clinician” is used to indicate all treatment team members. PMID:28386523

  11. Marine and Hydrokinetic Technology Development Risk Management Framework

    SciTech Connect

    Snowberg, David; Weber, Jochem

    2015-09-01

    Over the past decade, the global marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) industry has suffered a number of serious technological and commercial setbacks. To help reduce the risks of industry failures and advance the development of new technologies, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed an MHK Risk Management Framework. By addressing uncertainties, the MHK Risk Management Framework increases the likelihood of successful development of an MHK technology. It covers projects of any technical readiness level (TRL) or technical performance level (TPL) and all risk types (e.g. technological risk, regulatory risk, commercial risk) over the development cycle. This framework is intended for the development and deployment of a single MHK technology—not for multiple device deployments within a plant. This risk framework is intended to meet DOE’s risk management expectations for the MHK technology research and development efforts of the Water Power Program (see Appendix A). It also provides an overview of other relevant risk management tools and documentation.1 This framework emphasizes design and risk reviews as formal gates to ensure risks are managed throughout the technology development cycle. Section 1 presents the recommended technology development cycle, Sections 2 and 3 present tools to assess the TRL and TPL of the project, respectively. Section 4 presents a risk management process with design and risk reviews for actively managing risk within the project, and Section 5 presents a detailed description of a risk registry to collect the risk management information into one living document. Section 6 presents recommendations for collecting and using lessons learned throughout the development process.

  12. From risk analysis to risk governance - Adapting to an ever more complex future.

    PubMed

    Pfeiffer, Dirk U

    2014-01-01

    Risk analysis is now widely accepted amongst veterinary authorities and other stakeholders around the world as a conceptual framework for integrating scientific evidence into animal health decision making. The resulting risk management for most diseases primarily involves linking epidemiological understanding with diagnostics and/or vaccines. Recent disease outbreaks such as Nipah virus, SARS, avian influenza H5N1, bluetongue serotype 8 and Schmallenberg virus have led to realising that we need to explicitly take into account the underlying complex interactions between environmental, epidemiological and social factors which are often also spatially and temporally heterogeneous as well as interconnected across affected regions and beyond. A particular challenge is to obtain adequate understanding of the influence of human behaviour and to translate this into effective mechanisms leading to appropriate behaviour change where necessary. Both, the One Health and the ecohealth approaches reflect the need for such a holistic systems perspective, however the current implementation of risk analysis frameworks for animal health and food safety is still dominated by a natural or biomedical perspective of science as is the implementation of control and prevention policies. This article proposes to integrate the risk analysis approach with a risk governance framework which explicitly adds the socio-economic context to policy development and emphasizes the need for organisational change and stakeholder engagement.

  13. A Framework for Integrating Knowledge Management with Risk Management for Information Technology Projects (RiskManiT)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karadsheh, Louay A.

    2010-01-01

    This research focused on the challenges experienced when executing risk management activities for information technology projects. The lack of adequate knowledge management support of risk management activities has caused many project failures in the past. The research objective was to propose a conceptual framework of the Knowledge-Based Risk…

  14. Land-based approach to evaluate sustainable land management and adaptive capacity of ecosystems/lands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kust, German; Andreeva, Olga

    2015-04-01

    A number of new concepts and paradigms appeared during last decades, such as sustainable land management (SLM), climate change (CC) adaptation, environmental services, ecosystem health, and others. All of these initiatives still not having the common scientific platform although some agreements in terminology were reached, schemes of links and feedback loops created, and some models developed. Nevertheless, in spite of all these scientific achievements, the land related issues are still not in the focus of CC adaptation and mitigation. The last did not grow much beyond the "greenhouse gases" (GHG) concept, which makes land degradation as the "forgotten side of climate change" The possible decision to integrate concepts of climate and desertification/land degradation could be consideration of the "GHG" approach providing global solution, and "land" approach providing local solution covering other "locally manifesting" issues of global importance (biodiversity conservation, food security, disasters and risks, etc.) to serve as a central concept among those. SLM concept is a land-based approach, which includes the concepts of both ecosystem-based approach (EbA) and community-based approach (CbA). SLM can serve as in integral CC adaptation strategy, being based on the statement "the more healthy and resilient the system is, the less vulnerable and more adaptive it will be to any external changes and forces, including climate" The biggest scientific issue is the methods to evaluate the SLM and results of the SLM investments. We suggest using the approach based on the understanding of the balance or equilibrium of the land and nature components as the major sign of the sustainable system. Prom this point of view it is easier to understand the state of the ecosystem stress, size of the "health", range of adaptive capacity, drivers of degradation and SLM nature, as well as the extended land use, and the concept of environmental land management as the improved SLM approach

  15. Managing risk: clinical decision-making in mental health services.

    PubMed

    Muir-Cochrane, Eimear; Gerace, Adam; Mosel, Krista; O'Kane, Debra; Barkway, Patricia; Curren, David; Oster, Candice

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment and management is a major component of contemporary mental health practice. Risk assessment in health care exists within contemporary perspectives of management and risk aversive practices in health care. This has led to much discussion about the best approach to assessing possible risks posed by people with mental health problems. In addition, researchers and commentators have expressed concern that clinical practice is being dominated by managerial models of risk management at the expense of meeting the patient's health and social care needs. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the risk assessment practices of a multidisciplinary mental health service. Findings indicate that mental health professionals draw on both managerial and therapeutic approaches to risk management, integrating these approaches into their clinical practice. Rather than being dominated by managerial concerns regarding risk, the participants demonstrate professional autonomy and concern for the needs of their clients.

  16. Therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient: safety planning.

    PubMed

    Matarazzo, Bridget B; Homaifar, Beeta Y; Wortzel, Hal S

    2014-05-01

    This column is the fourth in a series describing a model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient. Previous columns presented an overview of the therapeutic risk management model, provided recommendations for how to augment risk assessment using structured assessments, and discussed the importance of risk stratification in terms of both severity and temporality. This final column in the series discusses the safety planning intervention as a critical component of therapeutic risk management of suicide risk. We first present concerns related to the relatively common practice of using no-suicide contracts to manage risk. We then present the safety planning intervention as an alternative approach and provide recommendations for how to use this innovative strategy to therapeutically mitigate risk in the suicidal patient.

  17. Risk Management Associated with Weapon System Warranties and Component Breakout

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-09-01

    co (0 I EL-ECTE O DTIC OF D0EC 211988 H RISK MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAPON SYSTEM WARRANTIES AND COMPONENT BREAKOUT THESIS Raymond B. Zaun...Ohio (3 3 D TILBLTTION STAT12F A Approved fo 88~ elaw 12 21 A3 DIstribution Unlimited RISK MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAPON SYSTEM WARRANTIES AND...Logistics, the Air University, the United States Air Force, or the Department of Defense. AFIT/GSM/LSY/88S-29 RISK MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAPON

  18. Disaster Risk Management - The Kenyan Challenge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nabutola, W.; Scheer, S.

    2009-04-01

    opportunities they see for Kenyans. EXPECTED OUTCOMES OF MY STUDY • Petition for and inform the need for the establishment and development of an Integrated Disaster Risk Management Centre in Kenya • Enhance a national contingency management bill to cater for the increased frequency and variety of disasters in Kenya • Set up a national awareness campaign of potential risks in Kenyans' daily endeavours, including Early Warning Systems, perhaps with support from those who have had to deal with similar, like the European Union, and devise ways and means to mitigate them when they occur. Better still work on well tested methods of preventing their happening in the first place. • Decentralize the whole issue of management of disasters considering that they can occur anywhere in the country and a response from Nairobi is not useful if it takes hours to reach the point of reference LESSONS LEARNT I am curious to establish what lessons we have learnt to inform the way we manage disasters in general and natural disasters in particular. Disasters are getting more frightening and intense. The advancement in technology should be useful in dealing with disasters. Given the recent events in 2008 alone, we need to commit much more resources to research and development to deal with disasters however they are caused. We should work towards being able to continue with our lives regardless of the risks and disasters that come our way as individuals and as a nation, by designing a strategy and policies that have worked elsewhere.

  19. Disaster Risk Management - The Kenyan Challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nabutola, W.

    2009-04-01

    opportunities they see for Kenyans. EXPECTED OUTCOMES OF MY STUDY • Petition for and inform the need for the establishment and development of an Integrated Disaster Risk Management Centre in Kenya • Enhance a national contingency management bill to cater for the increased frequency and variety of disasters in Kenya • Set up a national awareness campaign of potential risks in Kenyans' daily endeavours, including Early Warning Systems, perhaps with support from those who have had to deal with similar, like the European Union, and devise ways and means to mitigate them when they occur. Better still work on well tested methods of preventing their happening in the first place. • Decentralize the whole issue of management of disasters considering that they can occur anywhere in the country and a response from Nairobi is not useful if it takes hours to reach the point of reference LESSONS LEARNT I am curious to establish what lessons we have learnt to inform the way we manage disasters in general and natural disasters in particular. Disasters are getting more frightening and intense. The advancement in technology should be useful in dealing with disasters. Given the recent events in 2008 alone, we need to commit much more resources to research and development to deal with disasters however they are caused. We should work towards being able to continue with our lives regardless of the risks and disasters that come our way as individuals and as a nation, by designing a strategy and policies that have worked elsewhere.

  20. Reviewing the economic efficiency of disaster risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mechler, Reinhard

    2013-04-01

    There is a lot of rhetoric suggesting that disaster risk management (DRM) pays, yet surprisingly little in the way of hard facts. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is one major tool that can provide quantitative information about the prioritization of disaster risk management (DRM) (and climate adaptation) based on economic principles. Yet, on a global scale, there has been surprisingly little robust evidence on the economic efficiency and benefits of risk management measures. This review shows that for the limited evidence reported the economic case for DRM across a range of hazards is strong and that the benefits of investing in DRM outweigh the costs of doing so, on average, by about four times the cost in terms of avoided and reduced losses. Most studies using a CBA approach focus on structural DRM and most information has been made available on physical flood prevention. There have been some limited studies on preparedness and risk financing. The global evidence base is limited and estimates appear not very solid, and overall, in line with the conclusion of the recent IPCC SREX report, there is limited evidence and medium agreement across the literature. Some of the factors behind the limited robustness are inherent to CBA more widely: these challenges comprise the inability to price intangibles, evaluating strategies rather than single projects, difficulties in assessing softer rather than infrastructure-related options, choices regarding a proper discount rate, lack of accounting for the distribution of benefits and costs and difficulties with assessing nonmarket values such as those related to health, the environment, or public goods. Although techniques exist to address some of these challenges, they are not very likely to easily go away. Other challenges associated specifically with DRM, such as the need and difficulty to undertake risk -based analysis can be overcome, and there have been manuals and reports providing a way forward. In an age of austerity, cost

  1. Application of data mining to medical risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsumoto, Shusaku; Matsuoka, Kimiko; Yokoyama, Shigeki

    2008-03-01

    This paper proposes an application of data mining to medical risk management, where data mining techniques were applied to detection, analysis and evaluation of risks potentially existing in clinical environments. We applied this technique to the following two medical domains: risk aversion of nurse incidents and infection control. The results show that data mining methods were effective to detection and aversion of risk factors.

  2. Decision Making and Risk Management in Adventure Sports Coaching

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Collins, Loel; Collins, Dave

    2013-01-01

    Adventure sport coaches practice in environments that are dynamic and high in risk, both perceived and actual. The inherent risks associated with these activities, individuals' responses and the optimal exploitation of both combine to make the processes of risk management more complex and hazardous than the traditional sports where risk management…

  3. Experimental climate information services in support of risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webb, R. S.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Davidson, M. A.; Shea, E. E.; Nierenberg, C.; Dole, R. M.

    2009-12-01

    Climate variability and change impact national and local economies and environments. Developing and communicating climate and climate impacts information to inform decision making requires an understanding of context, societal objectives, and identification of factors important to the management of risk. Information sensitive to changing baselines or extremes is a critical emergent need. Meeting this need requires timely production and delivery of useful climate data, information and knowledge within familiar pathways. We identify key attributes for a climate service , and the network and infrastructure to develop and coordinate the resulting services based on lessons learned in experimental implementations of climate services. "Service-type" activities already exist in many settings within federal, state, academic, and private sectors. The challenge for a climate service is to find effective implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting user needs). These strategies include upfront infrastructure investments, learning from event to event, coordinated innovation and diffusion, and highlighting common adaptation interests. Common to these strategies is the production of reliable and accessible data, analyses of emergent conditions and needs, and deliberative processes to identify appropriate entry points and uses for improved knowledge. Experimental climate services show that the development of well-structured paths among observations, projections, risk assessments and usable information requires sustained participation in “knowledge management systems” for early warning across temporal and spatial scales. Central to these systems is a collaborative framework between research and management to ensure anticipatory coordination between decision makers and information providers, allowing for emerging research findings and their attendant uncertainties to be considered. Early warnings in this context are not simply forecasts or

  4. Managing the Financial Risks of Water Scarcity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Characklis, Greg; Foster, Ben; Kern, Jordan; Meyer, Eliot; Zeff, Harrison

    2015-04-01

    of financial losses experienced by such entities as water utilities, hydropower producers and inland shipping firms as a result of water scarcity, all of which suggest a growing role for financial instruments in managing environmental risk.

  5. Risk management frameworks: supporting the next generation of Murray-Darling Basin water sharing plans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Podger, G. M.; Cuddy, S. M.; Peeters, L.; Smith, T.; Bark, R. H.; Black, D. C.; Wallbrink, P.

    2014-09-01

    Water jurisdictions in Australia are required to prepare and implement water resource plans. In developing these plans the common goal is realising the best possible use of the water resources - maximising outcomes while minimising negative impacts. This requires managing the risks associated with assessing and balancing cultural, industrial, agricultural, social and environmental demands for water within a competitive and resource-limited environment. Recognising this, conformance to international risk management principles (ISO 31000:2009) have been embedded within the Murray-Darling Basin Plan. Yet, to date, there has been little strategic investment by water jurisdictions in bridging the gap between principle and practice. The ISO 31000 principles and the risk management framework that embodies them align well with an adaptive management paradigm within which to conduct water resource planning. They also provide an integrative framework for the development of workflows that link risk analysis with risk evaluation and mitigation (adaptation) scenarios, providing a transparent, repeatable and robust platform. This study, through a demonstration use case and a series of workflows, demonstrates to policy makers how these principles can be used to support the development of the next generation of water sharing plans in 2019. The workflows consider the uncertainty associated with climate and flow inputs, and model parameters on irrigation and hydropower production, meeting environmental flow objectives and recreational use of the water resource. The results provide insights to the risks associated with meeting a range of different objectives.

  6. Challenges in Incorporating Climate Change Adaptation into Integrated Water Resources Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirshen, P. H.; Cardwell, H.; Kartez, J.; Merrill, S.

    2011-12-01

    Over the last few decades, integrated water resources management (IWRM), under various names, has become the accepted philosophy for water management in the USA. While much is still to be learned about how to actually carry it out, implementation is slowly moving forward - spurred by both legislation and the demands of stakeholders. New challenges to IWRM have arisen because of climate change. Climate change has placed increased demands on the creativities of planners and engineers because they now must design systems that will function over decades of hydrologic uncertainties that dwarf any previous hydrologic or other uncertainties. Climate and socio-economic monitoring systems must also now be established to determine when the future climate has changed sufficiently to warrant undertaking adaptation. The requirements for taking some actions now and preserving options for future actions as well as the increased risk of social inequities in climate change impacts and adaptation are challenging experts in stakeholder participation. To meet these challenges, an integrated methodology is essential that builds upon scenario analysis, risk assessment, statistical decision theory, participatory planning, and consensus building. This integration will create cross-disciplinary boundaries for these disciplines to overcome.

  7. ADGS-2100 Adaptive Display and Guidance System Window Manager Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whalen, Mike W.; Innis, John D.; Miller, Steven P.; Wagner, Lucas G.

    2006-01-01

    Recent advances in modeling languages have made it feasible to formally specify and analyze the behavior of large system components. Synchronous data flow languages, such as Lustre, SCR, and RSML-e are particularly well suited to this task, and commercial versions of these tools such as SCADE and Simulink are growing in popularity among designers of safety critical systems, largely due to their ability to automatically generate code from the models. At the same time, advances in formal analysis tools have made it practical to formally verify important properties of these models to ensure that design defects are identified and corrected early in the lifecycle. This report describes how these tools have been applied to the ADGS-2100 Adaptive Display and Guidance Window Manager being developed by Rockwell Collins Inc. This work demonstrates how formal methods can be easily and cost-efficiently used to remove defects early in the design cycle.

  8. Climate Leadership webinar on Integrating Energy and Climate Risk Management

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Allergan, a multi-specialty healthcare company and pharmaceutical manufacturer, discusses how it manages climate and energy risks, how these areas are linked, and how energy and climate management strategies pervade critical business decisions.

  9. Adaptive local linear regression with application to printer color management.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Maya R; Garcia, Eric K; Chin, Erika

    2008-06-01

    Local learning methods, such as local linear regression and nearest neighbor classifiers, base estimates on nearby training samples, neighbors. Usually, the number of neighbors used in estimation is fixed to be a global "optimal" value, chosen by cross validation. This paper proposes adapting the number of neighbors used for estimation to the local geometry of the data, without need for cross validation. The term enclosing neighborhood is introduced to describe a set of neighbors whose convex hull contains the test point when possible. It is proven that enclosing neighborhoods yield bounded estimation variance under some assumptions. Three such enclosing neighborhood definitions are presented: natural neighbors, natural neighbors inclusive, and enclosing k-NN. The effectiveness of these neighborhood definitions with local linear regression is tested for estimating lookup tables for color management. Significant improvements in error metrics are shown, indicating that enclosing neighborhoods may be a promising adaptive neighborhood definition for other local learning tasks as well, depending on the density of training samples.

  10. Managing coastal environments under climate change: Pathways to adaptation.

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Arcilla, Agustín; García-León, Manuel; Gracia, Vicente; Devoy, Robert; Stanica, Adrian; Gault, Jeremy

    2016-12-01

    This paper deals with the question of how to manage vulnerable coastal systems so as to make them sustainable under present and future climates. This is interpreted in terms of the coastal functionality, mainly natural services and support for socio-economic activities. From here we discuss how to adapt for long term trends and for short terms episodic events using the DPSIR framework. The analysis is presented for coastal archetypes from Spain, Ireland and Romania, sweeping a range of meteo-oceanographic and socio-economic pressures, resulting in a wide range of fluxes among them those related to sediment. The analysis emphasizes the variables that provide a higher level of robustness. That means mean sea level for physical factors and population density for human factors. For each of the studied cases high and low sustainability practices, based on stakeholders preferences, are considered and discussed. This allows proposing alternatives and carrying out an integrated assessment in the last section of the paper. This assessment permits building a sequence of interventions called adaptation pathway that enhances the natural resilience of the studied coastal systems and therefore increases their sustainability under present and future conditions.

  11. Adaptive Management of Bull Trout Populations in the Lemhi Basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterson, James T.; Tyre, Andrew J.; Converse, Sarah J.; Bogich, Tiffany L.; Miller, Damien; Post van der Burg, Max; Thomas, Carmen; Thompson, Ralph J.; Wood, Jeri; Brewer, Donna; Runge, Michael C.

    2011-01-01

    The bull trout Salvelinus confluentus, a stream-living salmonid distributed in drainages of the northwestern United States, is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act because of rangewide declines. One proposed recovery action is the reconnection of tributaries in the Lemhi Basin. Past water use policies in this core area disconnected headwater spawning sites from downstream habitat and have led to the loss of migratory life history forms. We developed an adaptive management framework to analyze which types of streams should be prioritized for reconnection under a proposed Habitat Conservation Plan. We developed a Stochastic Dynamic Program that identified optimal policies over time under four different assumptions about the nature of the migratory behavior and the effects of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis on subpopulations of bull trout. In general, given the current state of the system and the uncertainties about the dynamics, the optimal policy would be to connect streams that are currently occupied by bull trout. We also estimated the value of information as the difference between absolute certainty about which of our four assumptions were correct, and a model averaged optimization assuming no knowledge. Overall there is little to be gained by learning about the dynamics of the system in its current state, although in other parts of the state space reducing uncertainties about the system would be very valuable. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis; the optimal decision at the current state does not change even when parameter values are changed up to 75% of the baseline values. Overall, the exercise demonstrates that it is possible to apply adaptive management principles to threatened and endangered species, but logistical and data availability constraints make detailed analyses difficult.

  12. Risk management for buildings -- Has the time come?

    SciTech Connect

    Berry, D.L.; Hunter, R.L.

    1997-08-01

    There are both incentives and challenges for applying formal risk management processes to buildings and other structures, including bridges, highways, dams, stadiums, shopping centers, and private dwellings. Based on an assessment of several issues, the authors conclude that for certain types of buildings and structures the time has come for the use of a formal risk-management approach, including probabilistic risk assessment methods, to help identify dominant risks to public health, safety, and security and to help manage these risks in a cost-effective manner.

  13. Development of a modified prognostic index of patients with aggressive adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma aged 70 years or younger: a possible risk-adapted management strategies including allogeneic transplantation.

    PubMed

    Fuji, Shigeo; Yamaguchi, Takuhiro; Inoue, Yoshitaka; Utsunomiya, Atae; Moriuchi, Yukiyoshi; Uchimaru, Kaoru; Owatari, Satsuki; Miyagi, Takashi; Taguchi, Jun; Choi, Ilseung; Otsuka, Eiichi; Nakachi, Sawako; Yamamoto, Hisashi; Kurosawa, Saiko; Tobinai, Kensei; Fukuda, Takahiro

    2017-03-24

    Adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma is a distinct type of peripheral T-cell lymphoma caused by human T-cell lymphotropic virus type I. Although allogeneic stem cell transplantation after chemotherapy is a recommended treatment option for patients with aggressive adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma, there is no consensus about indications for allogeneic stem cell transplantation because there is no established risk stratification system for transplant eligible patients. We conducted a nationwide survey of patients with aggressive adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma to construct a new large database that includes 1,792 patients aged 70 years or younger with aggressive adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma who were diagnosed between 2000 and 2013 and received intensive first-line chemotherapy. We randomly divided patients into two groups (training and validation sets). Acute type, poor performance status, high soluble interleukin-2 receptor level (> 5,000 U/mL), high adjusted calcium level (≥ 12 mg/dL), and high C-reactive protein level (≥ 2.5 mg/dL) were independent adverse prognostic factors using the training set. We used these five variables to divide patients into three risk groups. In the validation set, medial overall survival was 626 days, 322 days, and 197 days for the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, respectively. In the intermediate- and high-risk groups, transplanted recipients had significantly better overall survival than non-transplanted patients. We developed a new promising risk stratification system to identify patients aged 70 years or younger with aggressive adult T-cell leukemia-lymphoma who may benefit from upfront allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Prospective studies are warranted to confirm the benefit of this treatment strategy.

  14. Customer-Specific Transaction Risk Management in E-Commerce

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruch, Markus; Sackmann, Stefan

    Increasing potential for turnover in e-commerce is inextricably linked with an increase in risk. Online retailers (e-tailers), aiming for a company-wide value orientation should manage this risk. However, current approaches to risk management either use average retail prices elevated by an overall risk premium or restrict the payment methods offered to customers. Thus, they neglect customer-specific value and risk attributes and leave turnover potentials unconsidered. To close this gap, an innovative valuation model is proposed in this contribution that integrates customer-specific risk and potential turnover. The approach presented evaluates different payment methods using their risk-turnover characteristic, provides a risk-adjusted decision basis for selecting payment methods and allows e-tailers to derive automated risk management decisions per customer and transaction without reducing turnover potential.

  15. Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data.

    PubMed

    Muis, Sanne; Güneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Ward, Philip J

    2015-12-15

    An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale modeling of flood hazard and land change, which enables the probabilistic analysis of future trends in national-scale flood risk. We demonstrate its application to Indonesia. We develop 1000 spatially-explicit projections of urban expansion from 2000 to 2030 that account for uncertainty associated with population and economic growth projections, as well as uncertainty in where urban land change may occur. The projections show that the urban extent increases by 215%-357% (5th and 95th percentiles). Urban expansion is particularly rapid on Java, which accounts for 79% of the national increase. From 2000 to 2030, increases in exposure will elevate flood risk by, on average, 76% and 120% for river and coastal floods. While sea level rise will further increase the exposure-induced trend by 19%-37%, the response of river floods to climate change is highly uncertain. However, as urban expansion is the main driver of future risk, the implementation of adaptation measures is increasingly urgent, regardless of the wide uncertainty in climate projections. Using probabilistic urban projections, we show that spatial planning can be a very effective adaptation strategy. Our study emphasizes that global data can be used successfully for probabilistic risk assessment in data-scarce countries.

  16. Adaptive management of the Great Barrier Reef and the Grand Canyon world heritage areas.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Terence P; Gunderson, Lance H; Folke, Carl; Baird, Andrew H; Bellwood, David; Berkes, Fikret; Crona, Beatrice; Helfgott, Ariella; Leslie, Heather; Norberg, Jon; Nyström, Magnus; Olsson, Per; Osterblom, Henrik; Scheffer, Marten; Schuttenberg, Heidi; Steneck, Robert S; Tengö, Maria; Troell, Max; Walker, Brian; Wilson, James; Worm, Boris

    2007-11-01

    Conventional perceptions of the interactions between people and their environment are rapidly transforming. Old paradigms that view humans as separate from nature, natural resources as inexhaustible or endlessly substitutable, and the world as stable, predictable, and in balance are no longer tenable. New conceptual frameworks are rapidly emerging based on an adaptive approach that focuses on learning and flexible management in a dynamic social-ecological landscape. Using two iconic World Heritage Areas as case studies (the Great Barrier Reef and the Grand Canyon) we outline how an improved integration of the scientific and social aspects of natural resource management can guide the evolution of multiscale systems of governance that confront and cope with uncertainty, risk, and change in an increasingly human-dominated world.

  17. Integrated Risk Management Within NASA Programs/Projects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Connley, Warren; Rad, Adrian; Botzum, Stephen

    2004-01-01

    As NASA Project Risk Management activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate risk management processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and manage risks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective risk management. Applying an integrated approach to risk management makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better risk management and ultimately improve the

  18. United States Environmental Protection Agency: Use of risk assessment and risk management methodologies. Master's thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Lamuro, R.J.

    1992-09-30

    Make a full investigation of the policy implications and appropriate uses of risk assessment and risk management in regulatory programs under various Federal laws to prevent cancer and other chronic health effects which may result from exposure to hazardous substances. This is the primary mission of the Risk Assessment and Management Commission (Risk Commission). The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA), created the Risk Commission reflecting Congress' concern over agency use of risk assessment and risk management techniques and methodologies to implement federal laws protective of human health. The Risk Commission is to consider: methods for measuring and describing risks of chronic health effects from hazardous substances; methods to reflect uncertainties associated with estimation techniques, and whether it is possible or desirable to develop a consistent risk assessment methodology or a consistent standard of acceptable risk for various federal programs.

  19. The effectiveness of risk management: an analysis of project risk planning across industries and countries.

    PubMed

    Zwikael, Ofer; Ahn, Mark

    2011-01-01

    This article examines the effectiveness of current risk management practices to reduce project risk using a multinational, multi-industry study across different scenarios and cultures. A survey was administered to 701 project managers, and their supervisors, in seven industries and three diverse countries (New Zealand, Israel, and Japan), in multiple languages during the 2002-2007 period. Results of this study show that project context--industry and country where a project is executed--significantly impacts perceived levels of project risk, and the intensity of risk management processes. Our findings also suggest that risk management moderates the relationship between risk level and project success. Specifically, we found that even moderate levels of risk management planning are sufficient to reduce the negative effect risk levels have on project success.

  20. Development and implementation of a business continuity management risk index.

    PubMed

    Kadar, Michael

    This paper will present the building blocks for developing and implementing the BCM risk index; whether it is used as a comprehensive metric for risk or preparedness. This paper introduces the concept of a business continuity management (BCM) risk index--a comprehensive metric that measures and reports the status of the primary 'intended outcome' of the BCM programme to top management. In addition to measuring the primary programme output,;the BCM risk index can be used to demonstrate the overall value of the BCM programme to executive management. This is accomplished because the BCM risk index allows quantitative measurement of current risk levels and their comparison with established risk tolerances. The BCM Risk Index can provide executive management with reports on the risk level of individual business units, departments, subsidiaries or the enterprise in a way that drives both risk management and BCM initiatives. The name 'risk index' can be misleading, however. The BCM risk index concept can also be used to measure preparedness levels. In fact, implementation at DTE Energy has resulted in calling it the 'preparedness index', which is used to measure and report preparedness levels rather than risk levels.