Applications of adaptive state estimation theory
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Moose, R. L.; Vanlandingham, H. F.; Mccabe, D. H.
1980-01-01
Two main areas of application of adaptive state estimation theory are presented. Following a review of the basic estimation approach, its application to both the control of nonlinear plants and to the problem of tracking maneuvering targets is presented. Results are brought together from these two areas of investigation to provide insight into the wide range of possible applications of the general estimation method.
Adaptive state estimation for control of flexible structures
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chen, Chung-Wen; Huang, Jen-Kuang
1990-01-01
This paper proposes a new approach of obtaining adaptive state estimation of a system in the presence of unknown system disturbances and measurement noise. In the beginning, a non-optimal Kalman filter with arbitrary initial guess for the process and measurement noises is implemented. At the same time, an adaptive transversal predictor (ATP) based on the recursive least-squares (RLS) algorithm is used to yield optimal one- to p- step-ahead output predictions using the previous input/output data. Referring to these optimal predictions the Kalman filter gain is updated and the performance of the state estimation is thus improved. If forgetting factor is implemented in the recursive least-squares algorithm, this method is also capable of dealing with the situation when the noise statistics are slowly time-varying. This feature makes this new approach especially suitable for the control of flexible structures. A numerical example demonstrates the feasibility of this real time adaptive state estimation method.
On-line, adaptive state estimator for active noise control
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lim, Tae W.
1994-01-01
Dynamic characteristics of airframe structures are expected to vary as aircraft flight conditions change. Accurate knowledge of the changing dynamic characteristics is crucial to enhancing the performance of the active noise control system using feedback control. This research investigates the development of an adaptive, on-line state estimator using a neural network concept to conduct active noise control. In this research, an algorithm has been developed that can be used to estimate displacement and velocity responses at any locations on the structure from a limited number of acceleration measurements and input force information. The algorithm employs band-pass filters to extract from the measurement signal the frequency contents corresponding to a desired mode. The filtered signal is then used to train a neural network which consists of a linear neuron with three weights. The structure of the neural network is designed as simple as possible to increase the sampling frequency as much as possible. The weights obtained through neural network training are then used to construct the transfer function of a mode in z-domain and to identify modal properties of each mode. By using the identified transfer function and interpolating the mode shape obtained at sensor locations, the displacement and velocity responses are estimated with reasonable accuracy at any locations on the structure. The accuracy of the response estimates depends on the number of modes incorporated in the estimates and the number of sensors employed to conduct mode shape interpolation. Computer simulation demonstrates that the algorithm is capable of adapting to the varying dynamic characteristics of structural properties. Experimental implementation of the algorithm on a DSP (digital signal processing) board for a plate structure is underway. The algorithm is expected to reach the sampling frequency range of about 10 kHz to 20 kHz which needs to be maintained for a typical active noise control
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
D'Amato, Anthony M.
Input reconstruction is the process of using the output of a system to estimate its input. In some cases, input reconstruction can be accomplished by determining the output of the inverse of a model of the system whose input is the output of the original system. Inversion, however, requires an exact and fully known analytical model, and is limited by instabilities arising from nonminimum-phase zeros. The main contribution of this work is a novel technique for input reconstruction that does not require model inversion. This technique is based on a retrospective cost, which requires a limited number of Markov parameters. Retrospective cost input reconstruction (RCIR) does not require knowledge of nonminimum-phase zero locations or an analytical model of the system. RCIR provides a technique that can be used for model refinement, state estimation, and adaptive control. In the model refinement application, data are used to refine or improve a model of a system. It is assumed that the difference between the model output and the data is due to an unmodeled subsystem whose interconnection with the modeled system is inaccessible, that is, the interconnection signals cannot be measured and thus standard system identification techniques cannot be used. Using input reconstruction, these inaccessible signals can be estimated, and the inaccessible subsystem can be fitted. We demonstrate input reconstruction in a model refinement framework by identifying unknown physics in a space weather model and by estimating an unknown film growth in a lithium ion battery. The same technique can be used to obtain estimates of states that cannot be directly measured. Adaptive control can be formulated as a model-refinement problem, where the unknown subsystem is the idealized controller that minimizes a measured performance variable. Minimal modeling input reconstruction for adaptive control is useful for applications where modeling information may be difficult to obtain. We demonstrate
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Balas, Mark J.; Thapa Magar, Kaman S.; Frost, Susan A.
2013-01-01
A theory called Adaptive Disturbance Tracking Control (ADTC) is introduced and used to track the Tip Speed Ratio (TSR) of 5 MW Horizontal Axis Wind Turbine (HAWT). Since ADTC theory requires wind speed information, a wind disturbance generator model is combined with lower order plant model to estimate the wind speed as well as partial states of the wind turbine. In this paper, we present a proof of stability and convergence of ADTC theory with lower order estimator and show that the state feedback can be adaptive.
The Joint Adaptive Kalman Filter (JAKF) for Vehicle Motion State Estimation.
Gao, Siwei; Liu, Yanheng; Wang, Jian; Deng, Weiwen; Oh, Heekuck
2016-01-01
This paper proposes a multi-sensory Joint Adaptive Kalman Filter (JAKF) through extending innovation-based adaptive estimation (IAE) to estimate the motion state of the moving vehicles ahead. JAKF views Lidar and Radar data as the source of the local filters, which aims to adaptively adjust the measurement noise variance-covariance (V-C) matrix 'R' and the system noise V-C matrix 'Q'. Then, the global filter uses R to calculate the information allocation factor 'β' for data fusion. Finally, the global filter completes optimal data fusion and feeds back to the local filters to improve the measurement accuracy of the local filters. Extensive simulation and experimental results show that the JAKF has better adaptive ability and fault tolerance. JAKF enables one to bridge the gap of the accuracy difference of various sensors to improve the integral filtering effectivity. If any sensor breaks down, the filtered results of JAKF still can maintain a stable convergence rate. Moreover, the JAKF outperforms the conventional Kalman filter (CKF) and the innovation-based adaptive Kalman filter (IAKF) with respect to the accuracy of displacement, velocity, and acceleration, respectively. PMID:27438835
The Joint Adaptive Kalman Filter (JAKF) for Vehicle Motion State Estimation
Gao, Siwei; Liu, Yanheng; Wang, Jian; Deng, Weiwen; Oh, Heekuck
2016-01-01
This paper proposes a multi-sensory Joint Adaptive Kalman Filter (JAKF) through extending innovation-based adaptive estimation (IAE) to estimate the motion state of the moving vehicles ahead. JAKF views Lidar and Radar data as the source of the local filters, which aims to adaptively adjust the measurement noise variance-covariance (V-C) matrix ‘R’ and the system noise V-C matrix ‘Q’. Then, the global filter uses R to calculate the information allocation factor ‘β’ for data fusion. Finally, the global filter completes optimal data fusion and feeds back to the local filters to improve the measurement accuracy of the local filters. Extensive simulation and experimental results show that the JAKF has better adaptive ability and fault tolerance. JAKF enables one to bridge the gap of the accuracy difference of various sensors to improve the integral filtering effectivity. If any sensor breaks down, the filtered results of JAKF still can maintain a stable convergence rate. Moreover, the JAKF outperforms the conventional Kalman filter (CKF) and the innovation-based adaptive Kalman filter (IAKF) with respect to the accuracy of displacement, velocity, and acceleration, respectively. PMID:27438835
Adaptive Kalman filter based state of charge estimation algorithm for lithium-ion battery
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zheng, Hong; Liu, Xu; Wei, Min
2015-09-01
In order to improve the accuracy of the battery state of charge (SOC) estimation, in this paper we take a lithium-ion battery as an example to study the adaptive Kalman filter based SOC estimation algorithm. Firstly, the second-order battery system model is introduced. Meanwhile, the temperature and charge rate are introduced into the model. Then, the temperature and the charge rate are adopted to estimate the battery SOC, with the help of the parameters of an adaptive Kalman filter based estimation algorithm model. Afterwards, it is verified by the numerical simulation that in the ideal case, the accuracy of SOC estimation can be enhanced by adding two elements, namely, the temperature and charge rate. Finally, the actual road conditions are simulated with ADVISOR, and the simulation results show that the proposed method improves the accuracy of battery SOC estimation under actual road conditions. Thus, its application scope in engineering is greatly expanded. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61004048 and 61201010).
Adaptive nonlinear observer for state and unknown parameter estimation in noisy systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vijayaraghavan, Krishna; Valibeygi, Amir
2016-01-01
This paper proposes a novel adaptive observer for Lipschitz nonlinear systems and dissipative nonlinear systems in the presence of disturbances and sensor noise. The observer is based on an H∞ observer that can estimate both the system states and unknown parameters by minimising a cost function consisting of the sum of the square integrals of the estimation errors in the states and unknown parameters. The paper presents necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of the observer, and the equations for determining observer gains are formulated as linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) that can be solved offline using commercially available LMI solvers. The observer design has also been extended to the case of time-varying unknown parameters. The use of the observer is demonstrated through illustrative examples and the performance is compared with extended Kalman filtering. Compared to previous results on nonlinear observers, the proposed observer is more computationally efficient, and guarantees state and parameter estimation for two very broad classes of nonlinear systems (Lipschitz and dissipative nonlinear systems) in the presence of input disturbances and sensor noise. In addition, the proposed observer does not require online computation of the observer gain.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Weige; Shi, Wei; Ma, Zeyu
2015-09-01
Accurate estimations of battery energy and available power capability are of great of importance for realizing an efficient and reliable operation of electric vehicles. To improve the estimation accuracy and reliability for battery state of energy and power capability, a novel model-based joint estimation approach has been proposed against uncertain external operating conditions and internal degradation status of battery cells. Firstly, it proposes a three-dimensional response surface open circuit voltage model to calibrate the estimation inaccuracies of battery state of energy. Secondly, the adaptive unscented Kalman filter (AUKF) is employed to develop a novel model-based joint state estimator for battery state of energy and power capability. The AUKF algorithm utilizes the well-known features of the Kalman filter but employs the method of unscented transform (UT) and adaptive error covariance matching technology to improve the state estimation accuracy. Thirdly, the proposed joint estimator has been verified by a LiFePO4 lithium-ion battery cell under different operating temperatures and aging levels. The result indicates that the estimation errors of battery voltage and state-of-energy are less than 2% even if given a large erroneous initial value, which makes the state of available power capability predict more accurate and reliable for the electric vehicles application.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Shuoqin; Verbrugge, Mark; Wang, John S.; Liu, Ping
2011-10-01
We report the development of an adaptive, multi-parameter battery state estimator based on the direct solution of the differential equations that govern an equivalent circuit representation of the battery. The core of the estimator includes two sets of inter-related equations corresponding to discharge and charge events respectively. Simulation results indicate that the estimator gives accurate prediction and numerically stable performance in the regression of model parameters. The estimator is implemented in a vehicle-simulated environment to predict the state of charge (SOC) and the charge and discharge power capabilities (state of power, SOP) of a lithium ion battery. Predictions for the SOC and SOP agree well with experimental measurements, demonstrating the estimator's application in battery management systems. In particular, this new approach appears to be very stable for high-frequency data streams.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xiong, Rui; Gong, Xianzhi; Mi, Chunting Chris; Sun, Fengchun
2013-12-01
This paper presents a novel data-driven based approach for the estimation of the state of charge (SoC) of multiple types of lithium ion battery (LiB) cells with adaptive extended Kalman filter (AEKF). A modified second-order RC network based battery model is employed for the state estimation. Based on the battery model and experimental data, the SoC variation per mV voltage for different types of battery chemistry is analyzed and the parameters are identified. The AEKF algorithm is then employed to achieve accurate data-driven based SoC estimation, and the multi-parameter, closed loop feedback system is used to achieve robustness. The accuracy and convergence of the proposed approach is analyzed for different types of LiB cells, including convergence behavior of the model with a large initial SoC error. The results show that the proposed approach has good accuracy for different types of LiB cells, especially for C/LFP LiB cell that has a flat open circuit voltage (OCV) curve. The experimental results show good agreement with the estimation results with maximum error being less than 3%.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Xiaopeng; Shen, Weixiang; Cao, Zhenwei; Kapoor, Ajay
2014-01-01
In this paper, a novel approach for battery state of charge (SOC) estimation in electric vehicles (EVs) based on an adaptive switching gain sliding mode observer (ASGSMO) has been presented. To design the ASGSMO for the SOC estimation, the state equations based on a battery equivalent circuit model (BECM) are derived to represent dynamic behaviours of a battery. Comparing with a conventional sliding mode observer, the ASGSMO has a capability of minimising chattering levels in the SOC estimation by using the self-adjusted switching gain while maintaining the characteristics of being able to compensate modelling errors caused by the parameter variations of the BECM. Lyapunov stability theory is adopted to prove the error convergence of the ASGSMO for the SOC estimation. The lithium-polymer battery (LiPB) is utilised to conduct experiments for determining the parameters of the BECM and verifying the effectiveness of the proposed ASGSMO in various discharge current profiles including EV driving conditions in both city and suburban.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shankar, Praveen
The performance of nonlinear control algorithms such as feedback linearization and dynamic inversion is heavily dependent on the fidelity of the dynamic model being inverted. Incomplete or incorrect knowledge of the dynamics results in reduced performance and may lead to instability. Augmenting the baseline controller with approximators which utilize a parametrization structure that is adapted online reduces the effect of this error between the design model and actual dynamics. However, currently existing parameterizations employ a fixed set of basis functions that do not guarantee arbitrary tracking error performance. To address this problem, we develop a self-organizing parametrization structure that is proven to be stable and can guarantee arbitrary tracking error performance. The training algorithm to grow the network and adapt the parameters is derived from Lyapunov theory. In addition to growing the network of basis functions, a pruning strategy is incorporated to keep the size of the network as small as possible. This algorithm is implemented on a high performance flight vehicle such as F-15 military aircraft. The baseline dynamic inversion controller is augmented with a Self-Organizing Radial Basis Function Network (SORBFN) to minimize the effect of the inversion error which may occur due to imperfect modeling, approximate inversion or sudden changes in aircraft dynamics. The dynamic inversion controller is simulated for different situations including control surface failures, modeling errors and external disturbances with and without the adaptive network. A performance measure of maximum tracking error is specified for both the controllers a priori. Excellent tracking error minimization to a pre-specified level using the adaptive approximation based controller was achieved while the baseline dynamic inversion controller failed to meet this performance specification. The performance of the SORBFN based controller is also compared to a fixed RBF network
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bewley, Thomas
2015-11-01
Accurate long-term forecasts of the path and intensity of hurricanes are imperative to protect property and save lives. Accurate estimations and forecasts of the spread of large-scale contaminant plumes, such as those from Deepwater Horizon, Fukushima, and recent volcanic eruptions in Iceland, are essential for assessing environment impact, coordinating remediation efforts, and in certain cases moving folks out of harm's way. The challenges in estimating and forecasting such systems include: (a) environmental flow modeling, (b) high-performance real-time computing, (c) assimilating measured data into numerical simulations, and (d) acquiring in-situ data, beyond what can be measured from satellites, that is maximally relevant for reducing forecast uncertainty. This talk will focus on new techniques for addressing (c) and (d), namely, data assimilation and adaptive observation, in both hurricanes and large-scale environmental plumes. In particular, we will present a new technique for the energy-efficient coordination of swarms of sensor-laden balloons for persistent, in-situ, distributed, real-time measurement of developing hurricanes, leveraging buoyancy control only (coupled with the predictable and strongly stratified flowfield within the hurricane). Animations of these results are available at http://flowcontrol.ucsd.edu/3dhurricane.mp4 and http://flowcontrol.ucsd.edu/katrina.mp4. We also will survey our unique hybridization of the venerable Ensemble Kalman and Variational approaches to large-scale data assimilation in environmental flow systems, and how essentially the dual of this hybrid approach may be used to solve the adaptive observation problem in a uniquely effective and rigorous fashion.
Adaptive link selection algorithms for distributed estimation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xu, Songcen; de Lamare, Rodrigo C.; Poor, H. Vincent
2015-12-01
This paper presents adaptive link selection algorithms for distributed estimation and considers their application to wireless sensor networks and smart grids. In particular, exhaustive search-based least mean squares (LMS) / recursive least squares (RLS) link selection algorithms and sparsity-inspired LMS / RLS link selection algorithms that can exploit the topology of networks with poor-quality links are considered. The proposed link selection algorithms are then analyzed in terms of their stability, steady-state, and tracking performance and computational complexity. In comparison with the existing centralized or distributed estimation strategies, the key features of the proposed algorithms are as follows: (1) more accurate estimates and faster convergence speed can be obtained and (2) the network is equipped with the ability of link selection that can circumvent link failures and improve the estimation performance. The performance of the proposed algorithms for distributed estimation is illustrated via simulations in applications of wireless sensor networks and smart grids.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Duong, Van-Huan; Bastawrous, Hany Ayad; Lim, KaiChin; See, Khay Wai; Zhang, Peng; Dou, Shi Xue
2015-11-01
This paper deals with the contradiction between simplicity and accuracy of the LiFePO4 battery states estimation in the electric vehicles (EVs) battery management system (BMS). State of charge (SOC) and state of health (SOH) are normally obtained from estimating the open circuit voltage (OCV) and the internal resistance of the equivalent electrical circuit model of the battery, respectively. The difficulties of the parameters estimation arise from their complicated variations and different dynamics which require sophisticated algorithms to simultaneously estimate multiple parameters. This, however, demands heavy computation resources. In this paper, we propose a novel technique which employs a simplified model and multiple adaptive forgetting factors recursive least-squares (MAFF-RLS) estimation to provide capability to accurately capture the real-time variations and the different dynamics of the parameters whilst the simplicity in computation is still retained. The validity of the proposed method is verified through two standard driving cycles, namely Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule and the New European Driving Cycle. The proposed method yields experimental results that not only estimated the SOC with an absolute error of less than 2.8% but also characterized the battery model parameters accurately.
Adaptable state based control system
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Rasmussen, Robert D. (Inventor); Dvorak, Daniel L. (Inventor); Gostelow, Kim P. (Inventor); Starbird, Thomas W. (Inventor); Gat, Erann (Inventor); Chien, Steve Ankuo (Inventor); Keller, Robert M. (Inventor)
2004-01-01
An autonomous controller, comprised of a state knowledge manager, a control executor, hardware proxies and a statistical estimator collaborates with a goal elaborator, with which it shares common models of the behavior of the system and the controller. The elaborator uses the common models to generate from temporally indeterminate sets of goals, executable goals to be executed by the controller. The controller may be updated to operate in a different system or environment than that for which it was originally designed by the replacement of shared statistical models and by the instantiation of a new set of state variable objects derived from a state variable class. The adaptation of the controller does not require substantial modification of the goal elaborator for its application to the new system or environment.
Parameter estimating state reconstruction
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
George, E. B.
1976-01-01
Parameter estimation is considered for systems whose entire state cannot be measured. Linear observers are designed to recover the unmeasured states to a sufficient accuracy to permit the estimation process. There are three distinct dynamics that must be accommodated in the system design: the dynamics of the plant, the dynamics of the observer, and the system updating of the parameter estimation. The latter two are designed to minimize interaction of the involved systems. These techniques are extended to weakly nonlinear systems. The application to a simulation of a space shuttle POGO system test is of particular interest. A nonlinear simulation of the system is developed, observers designed, and the parameters estimated.
Adaptive vehicle motion estimation and prediction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhao, Liang; Thorpe, Chuck E.
1999-01-01
Accurate motion estimation and reliable maneuver prediction enable an automated car to react quickly and correctly to the rapid maneuvers of the other vehicles, and so allow safe and efficient navigation. In this paper, we present a car tracking system which provides motion estimation, maneuver prediction and detection of the tracked car. The three strategies employed - adaptive motion modeling, adaptive data sampling, and adaptive model switching probabilities - result in an adaptive interacting multiple model algorithm (AIMM). The experimental results on simulated and real data demonstrate that our tracking system is reliable, flexible, and robust. The adaptive tracking makes the system intelligent and useful in various autonomous driving tasks.
J-adaptive estimation with estimated noise statistics
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Jazwinski, A. H.; Hipkins, C.
1973-01-01
The J-adaptive sequential estimator is extended to include simultaneous estimation of the noise statistics in a model for system dynamics. This extension completely automates the estimator, eliminating the requirement of an analyst in the loop. Simulations in satellite orbit determination demonstrate the efficacy of the sequential estimation algorithm.
Accurate Biomass Estimation via Bayesian Adaptive Sampling
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Wheeler, Kevin R.; Knuth, Kevin H.; Castle, Joseph P.; Lvov, Nikolay
2005-01-01
The following concepts were introduced: a) Bayesian adaptive sampling for solving biomass estimation; b) Characterization of MISR Rahman model parameters conditioned upon MODIS landcover. c) Rigorous non-parametric Bayesian approach to analytic mixture model determination. d) Unique U.S. asset for science product validation and verification.
Error magnitude estimation in model-reference adaptive systems
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Colburn, B. K.; Boland, J. S., III
1975-01-01
A second order approximation is derived from a linearized error characteristic equation for Lyapunov designed model-reference adaptive systems and is used to estimate the maximum error between the model and plant states, and the time to reach this peak following a plant perturbation. The results are applicable in the analysis of plants containing magnitude-dependent nonlinearities.
Quantum state estimation with informationally overcomplete measurements
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhu, Huangjun
2014-07-01
We study informationally overcomplete measurements for quantum state estimation so as to clarify their tomographic significance as compared with minimal informationally complete measurements. We show that informationally overcomplete measurements can improve the tomographic efficiency significantly over minimal measurements when the states of interest have high purities. Nevertheless, the efficiency is still too limited to be satisfactory with respect to figures of merit based on monotone Riemannian metrics, such as the Bures metric and quantum Chernoff metric. In this way, we also pinpoint the limitation of nonadaptive measurements and motivate the study of more sophisticated measurement schemes. In the course of our study, we introduce the best linear unbiased estimator and show that it is equally efficient as the maximum likelihood estimator in the large sample limit. This estimator may significantly outperform the canonical linear estimator for states with high purities. It is expected to play an important role in experimental designs and adaptive quantum state tomography besides its significance to the current study.
2014-10-09
This software code is designed to track generator state variables in real time using the Ensemble Kalman Filter method with the aid of PMU measurements. This code can also be used to calibrate dynamic model parameters by augmenting parameters in the state variable vector.
Fast adaptive estimation of multidimensional psychometric functions.
DiMattina, Christopher
2015-01-01
Recently in vision science there has been great interest in understanding the perceptual representations of complex multidimensional stimuli. Therefore, it is becoming very important to develop methods for performing psychophysical experiments with multidimensional stimuli and efficiently estimating psychometric models that have multiple free parameters. In this methodological study, I analyze three efficient implementations of the popular Ψ method for adaptive data collection, two of which are novel approaches to psychophysical experiments. Although the standard implementation of the Ψ procedure is intractable in higher dimensions, I demonstrate that my implementations generalize well to complex psychometric models defined in multidimensional stimulus spaces and can be implemented very efficiently on standard laboratory computers. I show that my implementations may be of particular use for experiments studying how subjects combine multiple cues to estimate sensory quantities. I discuss strategies for speeding up experiments and suggest directions for future research in this rapidly growing area at the intersection of cognitive science, neuroscience, and machine learning. PMID:26200886
State Estimation for Tensegrity Robots
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Caluwaerts, Ken; Bruce, Jonathan; Friesen, Jeffrey M.; Sunspiral, Vytas
2016-01-01
Tensegrity robots are a class of compliant robots that have many desirable traits when designing mass efficient systems that must interact with uncertain environments. Various promising control approaches have been proposed for tensegrity systems in simulation. Unfortunately, state estimation methods for tensegrity robots have not yet been thoroughly studied. In this paper, we present the design and evaluation of a state estimator for tensegrity robots. This state estimator will enable existing and future control algorithms to transfer from simulation to hardware. Our approach is based on the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and combines inertial measurements, ultra wideband time-of-flight ranging measurements, and actuator state information. We evaluate the effectiveness of our method on the SUPERball, a tensegrity based planetary exploration robotic prototype. In particular, we conduct tests for evaluating both the robot's success in estimating global position in relation to fixed ranging base stations during rolling maneuvers as well as local behavior due to small-amplitude deformations induced by cable actuation.
Fast and Adaptive Sparse Precision Matrix Estimation in High Dimensions
Liu, Weidong; Luo, Xi
2014-01-01
This paper proposes a new method for estimating sparse precision matrices in the high dimensional setting. It has been popular to study fast computation and adaptive procedures for this problem. We propose a novel approach, called Sparse Column-wise Inverse Operator, to address these two issues. We analyze an adaptive procedure based on cross validation, and establish its convergence rate under the Frobenius norm. The convergence rates under other matrix norms are also established. This method also enjoys the advantage of fast computation for large-scale problems, via a coordinate descent algorithm. Numerical merits are illustrated using both simulated and real datasets. In particular, it performs favorably on an HIV brain tissue dataset and an ADHD resting-state fMRI dataset. PMID:25750463
Common Core State Standards and Adaptive Teaching
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kamil, Michael L.
2016-01-01
This article examines the issues of how Common Core State Standards (CCSS) will impact adaptive teaching. It focuses on 2 of the major differences between conventional standards and CCSS: the increased complexity of text and the addition of disciplinary literacy standards to reading instruction. The article argues that adaptive teaching under CCSS…
Sub-Second Parallel State Estimation
Chen, Yousu; Rice, Mark J.; Glaesemann, Kurt R.; Wang, Shaobu; Huang, Zhenyu
2014-10-31
This report describes the performance of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) sub-second parallel state estimation (PSE) tool using the utility data from the Bonneville Power Administrative (BPA) and discusses the benefits of the fast computational speed for power system applications. The test data were provided by BPA. They are two-days’ worth of hourly snapshots that include power system data and measurement sets in a commercial tool format. These data are extracted out from the commercial tool box and fed into the PSE tool. With the help of advanced solvers, the PSE tool is able to solve each BPA hourly state estimation problem within one second, which is more than 10 times faster than today’s commercial tool. This improved computational performance can help increase the reliability value of state estimation in many aspects: (1) the shorter the time required for execution of state estimation, the more time remains for operators to take appropriate actions, and/or to apply automatic or manual corrective control actions. This increases the chances of arresting or mitigating the impact of cascading failures; (2) the SE can be executed multiple times within time allowance. Therefore, the robustness of SE can be enhanced by repeating the execution of the SE with adaptive adjustments, including removing bad data and/or adjusting different initial conditions to compute a better estimate within the same time as a traditional state estimator’s single estimate. There are other benefits with the sub-second SE, such as that the PSE results can potentially be used in local and/or wide-area automatic corrective control actions that are currently dependent on raw measurements to minimize the impact of bad measurements, and provides opportunities to enhance the power grid reliability and efficiency. PSE also can enable other advanced tools that rely on SE outputs and could be used to further improve operators’ actions and automated controls to mitigate effects
Runtime Verification with State Estimation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Stoller, Scott D.; Bartocci, Ezio; Seyster, Justin; Grosu, Radu; Havelund, Klaus; Smolka, Scott A.; Zadok, Erez
2011-01-01
We introduce the concept of Runtime Verification with State Estimation and show how this concept can be applied to estimate theprobability that a temporal property is satisfied by a run of a program when monitoring overhead is reduced by sampling. In such situations, there may be gaps in the observed program executions, thus making accurate estimation challenging. To deal with the effects of sampling on runtime verification, we view event sequences as observation sequences of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), use an HMM model of the monitored program to "fill in" sampling-induced gaps in observation sequences, and extend the classic forward algorithm for HMM state estimation (which determines the probability of a state sequence, given an observation sequence) to compute the probability that the property is satisfied by an execution of the program. To validate our approach, we present a case study based on the mission software for a Mars rover. The results of our case study demonstrate high prediction accuracy for the probabilities computed by our algorithm. They also show that our technique is much more accurate than simply evaluating the temporal property on the given observation sequences, ignoring the gaps.
Application of Sequential Interval Estimation to Adaptive Mastery Testing
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Chang, Yuan-chin Ivan
2005-01-01
In this paper, we apply sequential one-sided confidence interval estimation procedures with beta-protection to adaptive mastery testing. The procedures of fixed-width and fixed proportional accuracy confidence interval estimation can be viewed as extensions of one-sided confidence interval procedures. It can be shown that the adaptive mastery…
Zakharova, N O; Iakovlev, O G; Treneva, E V
2014-01-01
The article presents some aspects of the health status of the veterans of the Samara region. Intercommunication is marked between the level of social adaptation, quality of life and rate aging combatants. The study shows the effect of chronic posttraumatic stress disorder on the occurrence of psychosomatic pathology and development of senescence combat veterans suffering from arterial hypertension. PMID:25051769
Adaptive distributed video coding with correlation estimation using expectation propagation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cui, Lijuan; Wang, Shuang; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Cheng, Samuel
2012-10-01
Distributed video coding (DVC) is rapidly increasing in popularity by the way of shifting the complexity from encoder to decoder, whereas no compression performance degrades, at least in theory. In contrast with conventional video codecs, the inter-frame correlation in DVC is explored at decoder based on the received syndromes of Wyner-Ziv (WZ) frame and side information (SI) frame generated from other frames available only at decoder. However, the ultimate decoding performances of DVC are based on the assumption that the perfect knowledge of correlation statistic between WZ and SI frames should be available at decoder. Therefore, the ability of obtaining a good statistical correlation estimate is becoming increasingly important in practical DVC implementations. Generally, the existing correlation estimation methods in DVC can be classified into two main types: pre-estimation where estimation starts before decoding and on-the-fly (OTF) estimation where estimation can be refined iteratively during decoding. As potential changes between frames might be unpredictable or dynamical, OTF estimation methods usually outperforms pre-estimation techniques with the cost of increased decoding complexity (e.g., sampling methods). In this paper, we propose a low complexity adaptive DVC scheme using expectation propagation (EP), where correlation estimation is performed OTF as it is carried out jointly with decoding of the factor graph-based DVC code. Among different approximate inference methods, EP generally offers better tradeoff between accuracy and complexity. Experimental results show that our proposed scheme outperforms the benchmark state-of-the-art DISCOVER codec and other cases without correlation tracking, and achieves comparable decoding performance but with significantly low complexity comparing with sampling method.
Model reference adaptive control, estimation and identification using only input and output signals
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Carroll, R. L.; Monopoli, R. V.
1975-01-01
Significant recent advances in the application of stability theory to the adaptive control and identification of systems, and adaptive state estimation, are considered. Emphasis is on those methods which utilize only input and output measurements of the system, and do not require derivatives of the output signal.
J-Adaptive estimation with estimated noise statistics. [for orbit determination
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Jazwinski, A. H.; Hipkins, C.
1975-01-01
The J-Adaptive estimator described by Jazwinski and Hipkins (1972) is extended to include the simultaneous estimation of the statistics of the unmodeled system accelerations. With the aid of simulations it is demonstrated that the J-Adaptive estimator with estimated noise statistics can automatically estimate satellite orbits to an accuracy comparable with the data noise levels, when excellent, continuous tracking coverage is available. Such tracking coverage will be available from satellite-to-satellite tracking.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jina, A.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E., III; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.
2014-12-01
The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the technical analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the climate risks posed to the United States' economy in a number of economic sectors [1]. The main analysis presents projections of climate impacts with an assumption of "no adaptation". Yet, historically, when the climate imposed an economic cost upon society, adaptive responses were taken to minimise these costs. These adaptive behaviours, both autonomous and planned, can be expected to occur as climate impacts increase in the future. To understand the extent to which adaptation might decrease some of the worst impacts of climate change, we empirically estimate adaptive responses. We do this in three sectors considered in the analysis - crop yield, crime, and mortality - and estimate adaptive capacity in two steps. First, looking at changes in climate impacts through time, we identify a historical rate of adaptation. Second, spatial differences in climate impacts are then used to stratify regions into more adapted or less adapted based on climate averages. As these averages change across counties in the US, we allow each to become more adapted at the rate identified in step one. We are then able to estimate the residual damages, assuming that only the historical adaptive behaviours have taken place (fig 1). Importantly, we are unable to estimate any costs associated with these adaptations, nor are we able to estimate more novel (for example, new technological discoveries) or more disruptive (for example, migration) adaptive behaviours. However, an important insight is that historical adaptive behaviours may not be capable of reducing the worst impacts of climate change. The persistence of impacts in even the most exposed areas indicates that there are non-trivial costs associated with adaptation that will need to be met from other sources or through novel behavioural changes. References: [1] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate
Simultaneous parameter and state estimation of shear buildings
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Concha, Antonio; Alvarez-Icaza, Luis; Garrido, Rubén
2016-03-01
This paper proposes an adaptive observer that simultaneously estimates the damping/mass and stiffness/mass ratios, and the state of a seismically excited building. The adaptive observer uses only acceleration measurements of the ground and floors for both parameter and state estimation; it identifies all the parameter ratios, velocities and displacements of the structure if all the floors are instrumented; and it also estimates the state and the damping/mass and stiffness/mass ratios of a reduced model of the building if only some floors are equipped with accelerometers. This observer does not resort to any particular canonical form and employs the Least Squares (LS) algorithm and a Luenberger state estimator. The LS method is combined with a smooth parameter projection technique that provides only positive estimates, which are employed by the state estimator. Boundedness of the estimate produced by the LS algorithm does not depend on the boundedness of the state estimates. Moreover, the LS method uses a parametrization based on Linear Integral Filters that eliminate offsets in the acceleration measurements in finite time and attenuate high-frequency measurement noise. Experimental results obtained using a reduced-scale five-story confirm the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive observer.
Finite element error estimation and adaptivity based on projected stresses
Jung, J.
1990-08-01
This report investigates the behavior of a family of finite element error estimators based on projected stresses, i.e., continuous stresses that are a least squared error fit to the conventional Gauss point stresses. An error estimate based on element force equilibrium appears to be quite effective. Examples of adaptive mesh refinement for a one-dimensional problem are presented. Plans for two-dimensional adaptivity are discussed. 12 refs., 82 figs.
Rath, J J; Veluvolu, K C; Defoort, M
2014-01-01
The estimation of road excitation profile is important for evaluation of vehicle stability and vehicle suspension performance for autonomous vehicle control systems. In this work, the nonlinear dynamics of the active automotive system that is excited by the unknown road excitation profile are considered for modeling. To address the issue of estimation of road profile, we develop an adaptive supertwisting observer for state and unknown road profile estimation. Under Lipschitz conditions for the nonlinear functions, the convergence of the estimation error is proven. Simulation results with Ford Fiesta MK2 demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed observer for state and unknown input estimation for nonlinear active suspension system. PMID:24683321
Rath, J. J.; Veluvolu, K. C.; Defoort, M.
2014-01-01
The estimation of road excitation profile is important for evaluation of vehicle stability and vehicle suspension performance for autonomous vehicle control systems. In this work, the nonlinear dynamics of the active automotive system that is excited by the unknown road excitation profile are considered for modeling. To address the issue of estimation of road profile, we develop an adaptive supertwisting observer for state and unknown road profile estimation. Under Lipschitz conditions for the nonlinear functions, the convergence of the estimation error is proven. Simulation results with Ford Fiesta MK2 demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed observer for state and unknown input estimation for nonlinear active suspension system. PMID:24683321
Encoding attentional states during visuomotor adaptation.
Im, Hee Yeon; Bédard, Patrick; Song, Joo-Hyun
2015-01-01
We recently showed that visuomotor adaptation acquired under attentional distraction is better recalled under a similar level of distraction compared to no distraction. This paradoxical effect suggests that attentional state (e.g., divided or undivided) is encoded as an internal context during visuomotor learning and should be reinstated for successful recall (Song & Bédard, 2015). To investigate if there is a critical temporal window for encoding attentional state in visuomotor memory, we manipulated whether participants performed the secondary attention-demanding task concurrently in the early or late phase of visuomotor learning. Recall performance was enhanced when the attentional states between recall and the early phase of visuomotor learning were consistent. However, it reverted to untrained levels when tested under the attentional state of the late-phase learning. This suggests that attentional state is primarily encoded during the early phase of learning before motor errors decrease and reach an asymptote. Furthermore, we demonstrate that when divided and undivided attentional states were mixed during visuomotor adaptation, only divided attention was encoded as an internal cue for memory retrieval. Therefore, a single attentional state appears to be primarily integrated with visuomotor memory while motor error reduction is in progress during learning. PMID:26114683
Snowpack Estimates Improve Water Resources Climate-Change Adaptation Strategies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lestak, L.; Molotch, N. P.; Guan, B.; Granger, S. L.; Nemeth, S.; Rizzardo, D.; Gehrke, F.; Franz, K. J.; Karsten, L. R.; Margulis, S. A.; Case, K.; Anderson, M.; Painter, T. H.; Dozier, J.
2010-12-01
Observed climate trends over the past 50 years indicate a reduction in snowpack water storage across the Western U.S. As the primary water source for the region, the loss in snowpack water storage presents significant challenges for managing water deliveries to meet agricultural, municipal, and hydropower demands. Improved snowpack information via remote sensing shows promise for improving seasonal water supply forecasts and for informing decadal scale infrastructure planning. An ongoing project in the California Sierra Nevada and examples from the Rocky Mountains indicate the tractability of estimating snowpack water storage on daily time steps using a distributed snowpack reconstruction model. Fractional snow covered area (FSCA) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data were used with modeled snowmelt from the snowpack model to estimate snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Sierra Nevada (64,515 km2). Spatially distributed daily SWE estimates were calculated for 10 years, 2000-2009, with detailed analysis for two anamolous years, 2006, a wet year and 2009, an over-forecasted year. Sierra-wide mean SWE was 0.8 cm for 01 April 2006 versus 0.4 cm for 01 April 2009, comparing favorably with known outflow. Modeled SWE was compared to in-situ (observed) SWE for 01 April 2006 for the Feather (northern Sierra, lower-elevation) and Merced (central Sierra, higher-elevation) basins, with mean modeled SWE 80% of observed SWE. Integration of spatial SWE estimates into forecasting operations will allow for better visualization and analysis of high-altitude late-season snow missed by in-situ snow sensors and inter-annual anomalies associated with extreme precipitation events/atmospheric rivers. Collaborations with state and local entities establish protocols on how to meet current and future information needs and improve climate-change adaptation strategies.
Robust time and frequency domain estimation methods in adaptive control
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lamaire, Richard Orville
1987-01-01
A robust identification method was developed for use in an adaptive control system. The type of estimator is called the robust estimator, since it is robust to the effects of both unmodeled dynamics and an unmeasurable disturbance. The development of the robust estimator was motivated by a need to provide guarantees in the identification part of an adaptive controller. To enable the design of a robust control system, a nominal model as well as a frequency-domain bounding function on the modeling uncertainty associated with this nominal model must be provided. Two estimation methods are presented for finding parameter estimates, and, hence, a nominal model. One of these methods is based on the well developed field of time-domain parameter estimation. In a second method of finding parameter estimates, a type of weighted least-squares fitting to a frequency-domain estimated model is used. The frequency-domain estimator is shown to perform better, in general, than the time-domain parameter estimator. In addition, a methodology for finding a frequency-domain bounding function on the disturbance is used to compute a frequency-domain bounding function on the additive modeling error due to the effects of the disturbance and the use of finite-length data. The performance of the robust estimator in both open-loop and closed-loop situations is examined through the use of simulations.
Probability estimation in arithmetic and adaptive-Huffman entropy coders.
Duttweiler, D L; Chamzas, C
1995-01-01
Entropy coders, such as Huffman and arithmetic coders, achieve compression by exploiting nonuniformity in the probabilities under which a random variable to be coded takes on its possible values. Practical realizations generally require running adaptive estimates of these probabilities. An analysis of the relationship between estimation quality and the resulting coding efficiency suggests a particular scheme, dubbed scaled-count, for obtaining such estimates. It can optimally balance estimation accuracy against a need for rapid response to changing underlying statistics. When the symbols being coded are from a binary alphabet, simple hardware and software implementations requiring almost no computation are possible. A scaled-count adaptive probability estimator of the type described in this paper is used in the arithmetic coder of the JBIG and JPEG image coding standards. PMID:18289975
Adaptive Error Estimation in Linearized Ocean General Circulation Models
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chechelnitsky, Michael Y.
1999-01-01
Data assimilation methods are routinely used in oceanography. The statistics of the model and measurement errors need to be specified a priori. This study addresses the problem of estimating model and measurement error statistics from observations. We start by testing innovation based methods of adaptive error estimation with low-dimensional models in the North Pacific (5-60 deg N, 132-252 deg E) to TOPEX/POSEIDON (TIP) sea level anomaly data, acoustic tomography data from the ATOC project, and the MIT General Circulation Model (GCM). A reduced state linear model that describes large scale internal (baroclinic) error dynamics is used. The methods are shown to be sensitive to the initial guess for the error statistics and the type of observations. A new off-line approach is developed, the covariance matching approach (CMA), where covariance matrices of model-data residuals are "matched" to their theoretical expectations using familiar least squares methods. This method uses observations directly instead of the innovations sequence and is shown to be related to the MT method and the method of Fu et al. (1993). Twin experiments using the same linearized MIT GCM suggest that altimetric data are ill-suited to the estimation of internal GCM errors, but that such estimates can in theory be obtained using acoustic data. The CMA is then applied to T/P sea level anomaly data and a linearization of a global GFDL GCM which uses two vertical modes. We show that the CMA method can be used with a global model and a global data set, and that the estimates of the error statistics are robust. We show that the fraction of the GCM-T/P residual variance explained by the model error is larger than that derived in Fukumori et al.(1999) with the method of Fu et al.(1993). Most of the model error is explained by the barotropic mode. However, we find that impact of the change in the error statistics on the data assimilation estimates is very small. This is explained by the large
State energy data report 1994: Consumption estimates
1996-10-01
This document provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), operated by EIA. SEDS provides State energy consumption estimates to members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public, and provides the historical series needed for EIA`s energy models. Division is made for each energy type and end use sector. Nuclear electric power is included.
Stability and error estimation for Component Adaptive Grid methods
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Oliger, Joseph; Zhu, Xiaolei
1994-01-01
Component adaptive grid (CAG) methods for solving hyperbolic partial differential equations (PDE's) are discussed in this paper. Applying recent stability results for a class of numerical methods on uniform grids. The convergence of these methods for linear problems on component adaptive grids is established here. Furthermore, the computational error can be estimated on CAG's using the stability results. Using these estimates, the error can be controlled on CAG's. Thus, the solution can be computed efficiently on CAG's within a given error tolerance. Computational results for time dependent linear problems in one and two space dimensions are presented.
Adaptive frequency estimation by MUSIC (Multiple Signal Classification) method
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Karhunen, Juha; Nieminen, Esko; Joutsensalo, Jyrki
During the last years, the eigenvector-based method called MUSIC has become very popular in estimating the frequencies of sinusoids in additive white noise. Adaptive realizations of the MUSIC method are studied using simulated data. Several of the adaptive realizations seem to give in practice equally good results as the nonadaptive standard realization. The only exceptions are instantaneous gradient type algorithms that need considerably more samples to achieve a comparable performance. A new method is proposed for constructing initial estimates to the signal subspace. The method improves often dramatically the performance of instantaneous gradient type algorithms. The new signal subspace estimate can also be used to define a frequency estimator directly or to simplify eigenvector computation.
Distributed estimation for adaptive sensor selection in wireless sensor networks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mahmoud, Magdi S.; Hassan Hamid, Matasm M.
2014-05-01
Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) are usually deployed for monitoring systems with the distributed detection and estimation of sensors. Sensor selection in WSNs is considered for target tracking. A distributed estimation scenario is considered based on the extended information filter. A cost function using the geometrical dilution of precision measure is derived for active sensor selection. A consensus-based estimation method is proposed in this paper for heterogeneous WSNs with two types of sensors. The convergence properties of the proposed estimators are analyzed under time-varying inputs. Accordingly, a new adaptive sensor selection (ASS) algorithm is presented in which the number of active sensors is adaptively determined based on the absolute local innovations vector. Simulation results show that the tracking accuracy of the ASS is comparable to that of the other algorithms.
State energy data report 1993: Consumption estimates
1995-07-01
The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining SEDS is to create historical time series of energy consumption by State that are defined as consistently as possible over time and across sectors. SEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public; and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA`s energy models.
On Using Exponential Parameter Estimators with an Adaptive Controller
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Patre, Parag; Joshi, Suresh M.
2011-01-01
Typical adaptive controllers are restricted to using a specific update law to generate parameter estimates. This paper investigates the possibility of using any exponential parameter estimator with an adaptive controller such that the system tracks a desired trajectory. The goal is to provide flexibility in choosing any update law suitable for a given application. The development relies on a previously developed concept of controller/update law modularity in the adaptive control literature, and the use of a converse Lyapunov-like theorem. Stability analysis is presented to derive gain conditions under which this is possible, and inferences are made about the tracking error performance. The development is based on a class of Euler-Lagrange systems that are used to model various engineering systems including space robots and manipulators.
Estimation of cosmological parameters using adaptive importance sampling
Wraith, Darren; Kilbinger, Martin; Benabed, Karim; Prunet, Simon; Cappe, Olivier; Fort, Gersende; Cardoso, Jean-Francois; Robert, Christian P.
2009-07-15
We present a Bayesian sampling algorithm called adaptive importance sampling or population Monte Carlo (PMC), whose computational workload is easily parallelizable and thus has the potential to considerably reduce the wall-clock time required for sampling, along with providing other benefits. To assess the performance of the approach for cosmological problems, we use simulated and actual data consisting of CMB anisotropies, supernovae of type Ia, and weak cosmological lensing, and provide a comparison of results to those obtained using state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). For both types of data sets, we find comparable parameter estimates for PMC and MCMC, with the advantage of a significantly lower wall-clock time for PMC. In the case of WMAP5 data, for example, the wall-clock time scale reduces from days for MCMC to hours using PMC on a cluster of processors. Other benefits of the PMC approach, along with potential difficulties in using the approach, are analyzed and discussed.
Brain Network Adaptability across Task States
Davison, Elizabeth N.; Schlesinger, Kimberly J.; Bassett, Danielle S.; Lynall, Mary-Ellen; Miller, Michael B.; Grafton, Scott T.; Carlson, Jean M.
2015-01-01
Activity in the human brain moves between diverse functional states to meet the demands of our dynamic environment, but fundamental principles guiding these transitions remain poorly understood. Here, we capitalize on recent advances in network science to analyze patterns of functional interactions between brain regions. We use dynamic network representations to probe the landscape of brain reconfigurations that accompany task performance both within and between four cognitive states: a task-free resting state, an attention-demanding state, and two memory-demanding states. Using the formalism of hypergraphs, we identify the presence of groups of functional interactions that fluctuate coherently in strength over time both within (task-specific) and across (task-general) brain states. In contrast to prior emphases on the complexity of many dyadic (region-to-region) relationships, these results demonstrate that brain adaptability can be described by common processes that drive the dynamic integration of cognitive systems. Moreover, our results establish the hypergraph as an effective measure for understanding functional brain dynamics, which may also prove useful in examining cross-task, cross-age, and cross-cohort functional change. PMID:25569227
Methodologies for Adaptive Flight Envelope Estimation and Protection
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Tang, Liang; Roemer, Michael; Ge, Jianhua; Crassidis, Agamemnon; Prasad, J. V. R.; Belcastro, Christine
2009-01-01
This paper reports the latest development of several techniques for adaptive flight envelope estimation and protection system for aircraft under damage upset conditions. Through the integration of advanced fault detection algorithms, real-time system identification of the damage/faulted aircraft and flight envelop estimation, real-time decision support can be executed autonomously for improving damage tolerance and flight recoverability. Particularly, a bank of adaptive nonlinear fault detection and isolation estimators were developed for flight control actuator faults; a real-time system identification method was developed for assessing the dynamics and performance limitation of impaired aircraft; online learning neural networks were used to approximate selected aircraft dynamics which were then inverted to estimate command margins. As off-line training of network weights is not required, the method has the advantage of adapting to varying flight conditions and different vehicle configurations. The key benefit of the envelope estimation and protection system is that it allows the aircraft to fly close to its limit boundary by constantly updating the controller command limits during flight. The developed techniques were demonstrated on NASA s Generic Transport Model (GTM) simulation environments with simulated actuator faults. Simulation results and remarks on future work are presented.
State Energy Data Report, 1991: Consumption estimates
Not Available
1993-05-01
The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sector. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining SEDS is to create historical time series of energy consumption by State that are defined as consistently as possible over time and across sectors. SEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to the Government, policy makers, and the public; and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA`s energy models.
State energy data report 1995 - consumption estimates
1997-12-01
The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sectors. The estimates are developed in the State Energy Data System (SEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining SEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public, and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA`s energy models.
Estimating Skin Cancer Risk: Evaluating Mobile Computer-Adaptive Testing
Djaja, Ngadiman; Janda, Monika; Olsen, Catherine M; Whiteman, David C
2016-01-01
Background Response burden is a major detriment to questionnaire completion rates. Computer adaptive testing may offer advantages over non-adaptive testing, including reduction of numbers of items required for precise measurement. Objective Our aim was to compare the efficiency of non-adaptive (NAT) and computer adaptive testing (CAT) facilitated by Partial Credit Model (PCM)-derived calibration to estimate skin cancer risk. Methods We used a random sample from a population-based Australian cohort study of skin cancer risk (N=43,794). All 30 items of the skin cancer risk scale were calibrated with the Rasch PCM. A total of 1000 cases generated following a normal distribution (mean [SD] 0 [1]) were simulated using three Rasch models with three fixed-item (dichotomous, rating scale, and partial credit) scenarios, respectively. We calculated the comparative efficiency and precision of CAT and NAT (shortening of questionnaire length and the count difference number ratio less than 5% using independent t tests). Results We found that use of CAT led to smaller person standard error of the estimated measure than NAT, with substantially higher efficiency but no loss of precision, reducing response burden by 48%, 66%, and 66% for dichotomous, Rating Scale Model, and PCM models, respectively. Conclusions CAT-based administrations of the skin cancer risk scale could substantially reduce participant burden without compromising measurement precision. A mobile computer adaptive test was developed to help people efficiently assess their skin cancer risk. PMID:26800642
Precision of maximum likelihood estimation in adaptive designs.
Graf, Alexandra Christine; Gutjahr, Georg; Brannath, Werner
2016-03-15
There has been increasing interest in trials that allow for design adaptations like sample size reassessment or treatment selection at an interim analysis. Ignoring the adaptive and multiplicity issues in such designs leads to an inflation of the type 1 error rate, and treatment effect estimates based on the maximum likelihood principle become biased. Whereas the methodological issues concerning hypothesis testing are well understood, it is not clear how to deal with parameter estimation in designs were adaptation rules are not fixed in advanced so that, in practice, the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) is used. It is therefore important to understand the behavior of the MLE in such designs. The investigation of Bias and mean squared error (MSE) is complicated by the fact that the adaptation rules need not be fully specified in advance and, hence, are usually unknown. To investigate Bias and MSE under such circumstances, we search for the sample size reassessment and selection rules that lead to the maximum Bias or maximum MSE. Generally, this leads to an overestimation of Bias and MSE, which can be reduced by imposing realistic constraints on the rules like, for example, a maximum sample size. We consider designs that start with k treatment groups and a common control and where selection of a single treatment and control is performed at the interim analysis with the possibility to reassess each of the sample sizes. We consider the case of unlimited sample size reassessments as well as several realistically restricted sample size reassessment rules. PMID:26459506
Estimating meme fitness in adaptive memetic algorithms for combinatorial problems.
Smith, J E
2012-01-01
Among the most promising and active research areas in heuristic optimisation is the field of adaptive memetic algorithms (AMAs). These gain much of their reported robustness by adapting the probability with which each of a set of local improvement operators is applied, according to an estimate of their current value to the search process. This paper addresses the issue of how the current value should be estimated. Assuming the estimate occurs over several applications of a meme, we consider whether the extreme or mean improvements should be used, and whether this aggregation should be global, or local to some part of the solution space. To investigate these issues, we use the well-established COMA framework that coevolves the specification of a population of memes (representing different local search algorithms) alongside a population of candidate solutions to the problem at hand. Two very different memetic algorithms are considered: the first using adaptive operator pursuit to adjust the probabilities of applying a fixed set of memes, and a second which applies genetic operators to dynamically adapt and create memes and their functional definitions. For the latter, especially on combinatorial problems, credit assignment mechanisms based on historical records, or on notions of landscape locality, will have limited application, and it is necessary to estimate the value of a meme via some form of sampling. The results on a set of binary encoded combinatorial problems show that both methods are very effective, and that for some problems it is necessary to use thousands of variables in order to tease apart the differences between different reward schemes. However, for both memetic algorithms, a significant pattern emerges that reward based on mean improvement is better than that based on extreme improvement. This contradicts recent findings from adapting the parameters of operators involved in global evolutionary search. The results also show that local reward schemes
Estimated spectrum adaptive postfilter and the iterative prepost filtering algirighms
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Linares, Irving (Inventor)
2004-01-01
The invention presents The Estimated Spectrum Adaptive Postfilter (ESAP) and the Iterative Prepost Filter (IPF) algorithms. These algorithms model a number of image-adaptive post-filtering and pre-post filtering methods. They are designed to minimize Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) blocking distortion caused when images are highly compressed with the Joint Photographic Expert Group (JPEG) standard. The ESAP and the IPF techniques of the present invention minimize the mean square error (MSE) to improve the objective and subjective quality of low-bit-rate JPEG gray-scale images while simultaneously enhancing perceptual visual quality with respect to baseline JPEG images.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Xu, Ru-Gang; Koga, Dennis (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
The goal of 'Estimate' is to take advantage of attitude information to produce better pose while staying flexible and robust. Currently there are several instruments that are used for attitude: gyros, inclinometers, and compasses. However, precise and useful attitude information cannot come from one instrument. Integration of rotational rates, from gyro data for example, would result in drift. Therefore, although gyros are accurate in the short-term, accuracy in the long term is unlikely. Using absolute instruments such as compasses and inclinometers can result in an accurate measurement of attitude in the long term. However, in the short term, the physical nature of compasses and inclinometers, and the dynamic nature of a mobile platform result in highly volatile and therefore useless data. The solution then is to use both absolute and relative data. Kalman Filtering is known to be able to combine gyro and compass/inclinometer data to produce stable and accurate attitude information. Since the model of motion is linear and the data comes in as discrete samples, a Discrete Kalman Filter was selected as the core of the new estimator. Therefore, 'Estimate' can be divided into two parts: the Discrete Kalman Filter and the code framework.
Optimal State Estimation for Cavity Optomechanical Systems.
Wieczorek, Witlef; Hofer, Sebastian G; Hoelscher-Obermaier, Jason; Riedinger, Ralf; Hammerer, Klemens; Aspelmeyer, Markus
2015-06-01
We demonstrate optimal state estimation for a cavity optomechanical system through Kalman filtering. By taking into account nontrivial experimental noise sources, such as colored laser noise and spurious mechanical modes, we implement a realistic state-space model. This allows us to obtain the conditional system state, i.e., conditioned on previous measurements, with a minimal least-squares estimation error. We apply this method to estimate the mechanical state, as well as optomechanical correlations both in the weak and strong coupling regime. The application of the Kalman filter is an important next step for achieving real-time optimal (classical and quantum) control of cavity optomechanical systems. PMID:26196621
Vehicle Lateral State Estimation Based on Measured Tyre Forces
Tuononen, Ari J.
2009-01-01
Future active safety systems need more accurate information about the state of vehicles. This article proposes a method to evaluate the lateral state of a vehicle based on measured tyre forces. The tyre forces of two tyres are estimated from optically measured tyre carcass deflections and transmitted wirelessly to the vehicle body. The two remaining tyres are so-called virtual tyre sensors, the forces of which are calculated from the real tyre sensor estimates. The Kalman filter estimator for lateral vehicle state based on measured tyre forces is presented, together with a simple method to define adaptive measurement error covariance depending on the driving condition of the vehicle. The estimated yaw rate and lateral velocity are compared with the validation sensor measurements. PMID:22291535
Adaptive whitening of the electromyogram to improve amplitude estimation.
Clancy, E A; Farry, K A
2000-06-01
Previous research showed that whitening the surface electromyogram (EMG) can improve EMG amplitude estimation (where EMG amplitude is defined as the time-varying standard deviation of the EMG). However, conventional whitening via a linear filter seems to fail at low EMG amplitude levels, perhaps due to additive background noise in the measured EMG. This paper describes an adaptive whitening technique that overcomes this problem by cascading a nonadaptive whitening filter, an adaptive Wiener filter, and an adaptive gain correction. These stages can be calibrated from two, five second duration, constant-angle, constant-force contractions, one at a reference level [e.g., 50% maximum voluntary contraction (MVC)] and one at 0% MVC. In experimental studies, subjects used real-time EMG amplitude estimates to track a uniform-density, band-limited random target. With a 0.25-Hz bandwidth target, either adaptive whitening or multiple-channel processing reduced the tracking error roughly half-way to the error achieved using the dynamometer signal as the feedback. At the 1.00-Hz bandwidth, all of the EMG processors had errors equivalent to that of the dynamometer signal, reflecting that errors in this task were dominated by subjects' inability to track targets at this bandwidth. Increases in the additive noise level, smoothing window length, and tracking bandwidth diminish the advantages of whitening. PMID:10833845
Structured estimation - Sample size reduction for adaptive pattern classification
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Morgera, S.; Cooper, D. B.
1977-01-01
The Gaussian two-category classification problem with known category mean value vectors and identical but unknown category covariance matrices is considered. The weight vector depends on the unknown common covariance matrix, so the procedure is to estimate the covariance matrix in order to obtain an estimate of the optimum weight vector. The measure of performance for the adapted classifier is the output signal-to-interference noise ratio (SIR). A simple approximation for the expected SIR is gained by using the general sample covariance matrix estimator; this performance is both signal and true covariance matrix independent. An approximation is also found for the expected SIR obtained by using a Toeplitz form covariance matrix estimator; this performance is found to be dependent on both the signal and the true covariance matrix.
Linear Covariance Analysis and Epoch State Estimators
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Markley, F. Landis; Carpenter, J. Russell
2012-01-01
This paper extends in two directions the results of prior work on generalized linear covariance analysis of both batch least-squares and sequential estimators. The first is an improved treatment of process noise in the batch, or epoch state, estimator with an epoch time that may be later than some or all of the measurements in the batch. The second is to account for process noise in specifying the gains in the epoch state estimator. We establish the conditions under which the latter estimator is equivalent to the Kalman filter.
Linear Covariance Analysis and Epoch State Estimators
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Markley, F. Landis; Carpenter, J. Russell
2014-01-01
This paper extends in two directions the results of prior work on generalized linear covariance analysis of both batch least-squares and sequential estimators. The first is an improved treatment of process noise in the batch, or epoch state, estimator with an epoch time that may be later than some or all of the measurements in the batch. The second is to account for process noise in specifying the gains in the epoch state estimator. We establish the conditions under which the latter estimator is equivalent to the Kalman filter.
Parallel State Estimation Assessment with Practical Data
Chen, Yousu; Jin, Shuangshuang; Rice, Mark J.; Huang, Zhenyu
2014-10-31
This paper presents a full-cycle parallel state estimation (PSE) implementation using a preconditioned conjugate gradient algorithm. The developed code is able to solve large-size power system state estimation within 5 seconds using real-world data, comparable to the Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) rate. This achievement allows the operators to know the system status much faster to help improve grid reliability. Case study results of the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) system with real measurements are presented. The benefits of fast state estimation are also discussed.
An Adaptive Motion Estimation Scheme for Video Coding
Gao, Yuan; Jia, Kebin
2014-01-01
The unsymmetrical-cross multihexagon-grid search (UMHexagonS) is one of the best fast Motion Estimation (ME) algorithms in video encoding software. It achieves an excellent coding performance by using hybrid block matching search pattern and multiple initial search point predictors at the cost of the computational complexity of ME increased. Reducing time consuming of ME is one of the key factors to improve video coding efficiency. In this paper, we propose an adaptive motion estimation scheme to further reduce the calculation redundancy of UMHexagonS. Firstly, new motion estimation search patterns have been designed according to the statistical results of motion vector (MV) distribution information. Then, design a MV distribution prediction method, including prediction of the size of MV and the direction of MV. At last, according to the MV distribution prediction results, achieve self-adaptive subregional searching by the new estimation search patterns. Experimental results show that more than 50% of total search points are dramatically reduced compared to the UMHexagonS algorithm in JM 18.4 of H.264/AVC. As a result, the proposed algorithm scheme can save the ME time up to 20.86% while the rate-distortion performance is not compromised. PMID:24672313
Adaptive distributed Kalman filtering with wind estimation for astronomical adaptive optics.
Massioni, Paolo; Gilles, Luc; Ellerbroek, Brent
2015-12-01
In the framework of adaptive optics (AO) for astronomy, it is a common assumption to consider the atmospheric turbulent layers as "frozen flows" sliding according to the wind velocity profile. For this reason, having knowledge of such a velocity profile is beneficial in terms of AO control system performance. In this paper we show that it is possible to exploit the phase estimate from a Kalman filter running on an AO system in order to estimate wind velocity. This allows the update of the Kalman filter itself with such knowledge, making it adaptive. We have implemented such an adaptive controller based on the distributed version of the Kalman filter, for a realistic simulation of a multi-conjugate AO system with laser guide stars on a 30 m telescope. Simulation results show that this approach is effective and promising and the additional computational cost with respect to the distributed filter is negligible. Comparisons with a previously published slope detection and ranging wind profiler are made and the impact of turbulence profile quantization is assessed. One of the main findings of the paper is that all flavors of the adaptive distributed Kalman filter are impacted more significantly by turbulence profile quantization than the static minimum mean square estimator which does not incorporate wind profile information. PMID:26831389
State energy data report 1996: Consumption estimates
1999-02-01
The State Energy Data Report (SEDR) provides annual time series estimates of State-level energy consumption by major economic sectors. The estimates are developed in the Combined State Energy Data System (CSEDS), which is maintained and operated by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The goal in maintaining CSEDS is to create historical time series of energy consumption by State that are defined as consistently as possible over time and across sectors. CSEDS exists for two principal reasons: (1) to provide State energy consumption estimates to Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, and the general public and (2) to provide the historical series necessary for EIA`s energy models. To the degree possible, energy consumption has been assigned to five sectors: residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric utility sectors. Fuels covered are coal, natural gas, petroleum, nuclear electric power, hydroelectric power, biomass, and other, defined as electric power generated from geothermal, wind, photovoltaic, and solar thermal energy. 322 tabs.
State estimation for spacecraft power systems
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Williamson, Susan H.; Sheble, Gerald B.
1990-01-01
A state estimator appropriate for spacecraft power systems is presented. Phasor voltage and current measurements are used to determine the system state. A weighted least squares algorithm with a multireference transmission cable model is used. Bad data are identified and resolved. Once the bad data have been identified, they are removed from the measurement set and the system state can be estimated from the remaining data. An observability analysis is performed on the remaining measurements to determine if the system state can be found from the reduced measurement set. An example of the algorithm for a sample spacecraft power system is presented.
State-Space Algorithms for Estimating Spike Rate Functions
Smith, Anne C.; Scalon, Joao D.; Wirth, Sylvia; Yanike, Marianna; Suzuki, Wendy A.; Brown, Emery N.
2010-01-01
The accurate characterization of spike firing rates including the determination of when changes in activity occur is a fundamental issue in the analysis of neurophysiological data. Here we describe a state-space model for estimating the spike rate function that provides a maximum likelihood estimate of the spike rate, model goodness-of-fit assessments, as well as confidence intervals for the spike rate function and any other associated quantities of interest. Using simulated spike data, we first compare the performance of the state-space approach with that of Bayesian adaptive regression splines (BARS) and a simple cubic spline smoothing algorithm. We show that the state-space model is computationally efficient and comparable with other spline approaches. Our results suggest both a theoretically sound and practical approach for estimating spike rate functions that is applicable to a wide range of neurophysiological data. PMID:19911062
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Raiche, Gilles; Blais, Jean-Guy
In a computerized adaptive test (CAT), it would be desirable to obtain an acceptable precision of the proficiency level estimate using an optimal number of items. Decreasing the number of items is accompanied, however, by a certain degree of bias when the true proficiency level differs significantly from the a priori estimate. G. Raiche (2000) has…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fleischer, Christian; Waag, Wladislaw; Heyn, Hans-Martin; Sauer, Dirk Uwe
2014-08-01
Lithium-ion battery systems employed in high power demanding systems such as electric vehicles require a sophisticated monitoring system to ensure safe and reliable operation. Three major states of the battery are of special interest and need to be constantly monitored, these include: battery state of charge (SoC), battery state of health (capcity fade determination, SoH), and state of function (power fade determination, SoF). In a series of two papers, we propose a system of algorithms based on a weighted recursive least quadratic squares parameter estimator, that is able to determine the battery impedance and diffusion parameters for accurate state estimation. The functionality was proven on different battery chemistries with different aging conditions. The first paper investigates the general requirements on BMS for HEV/EV applications. In parallel, the commonly used methods for battery monitoring are reviewed to elaborate their strength and weaknesses in terms of the identified requirements for on-line applications. Special emphasis will be placed on real-time capability and memory optimized code for cost-sensitive industrial or automotive applications in which low-cost microcontrollers must be used. Therefore, a battery model is presented which includes the influence of the Butler-Volmer kinetics on the charge-transfer process. Lastly, the mass transport process inside the battery is modeled in a novel state-space representation.
Impact of PMU Technology in State Estimation
Avila-Rosales, Rene; Rice, Mark; Lopez, Rafael; Beard, Lisa; Mathur, Tanya; Galvan, Floyd; Gupta, Vinit; James, Lambert; Graffy, James; Papic, Milorad
2008-01-01
Recent blackouts and the need to manage larger and larger power systems closer to their stability limits are driving electricity utilities to deploy synchronized phasor measurements (PMU) for wide area monitoring and control. At the same time, modern TSOs need accurate, fast and reliable estimation of their networks' real-time conditions. State Estimator (SE), a fundamental function in dispatching control centers, is expected to perform reliably around the clock since it provides the foundation for subsequent critical security analyses, market revenue calculations, etc. PMU technology provides accurate, satellite-synchronized measurements of both magnitude and angle, which naturally fit in the SE algorithm and enhance its robustness and the quality of the results. This paper presents current results of ongoing experiences with electric utilities on the usage of PMU data in state estimation. It focuses on practical implementation aspects, such as data communication and interfacing to the control center EMS, metrics for evaluation of State Estimator results and improvements in state estimation behavior and results thanks to PMU data.
Energy Detection Based Estimation of Channel Occupancy Rate with Adaptive Noise Estimation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lehtomäki, Janne J.; Vuohtoniemi, Risto; Umebayashi, Kenta; Mäkelä, Juha-Pekka
Recently, there has been growing interest in opportunistically utilizing the 2.4GHz ISM-band. Numerous spectrum occupancy measurements covering the ISM-band have been performed to analyze the spectrum usage. However, in these campaigns the verification of the correctness of the obtained occupancy values for the highly dynamic ISM-band has not been presented. In this paper, we propose and verify channel occupancy rate (COR) estimation utilizing energy detection mechanism with a novel adaptive energy detection threshold setting method. The results are compared with the true reference COR values. Several different types of verification measurements showed that our setup can estimate the COR values of 802.11 traffic well, with negligible overestimation. The results from real-time real-life measurements also confirm that the proposed adaptive threshold setting method enables accurate thresholds even in the situations where multiple interferers are present in the received signal.
State energy data report 1992: Consumption estimates
Not Available
1994-05-01
This is a report of energy consumption by state for the years 1960 to 1992. The report contains summaries of energy consumption for the US and by state, consumption by source, comparisons to other energy use reports, consumption by energy use sector, and describes the estimation methodologies used in the preparation of the report. Some years are not listed specifically although they are included in the summary of data.
Estimation after subpopulation selection in adaptive seamless trials.
Kimani, Peter K; Todd, Susan; Stallard, Nigel
2015-08-15
During the development of new therapies, it is not uncommon to test whether a new treatment works better than the existing treatment for all patients who suffer from a condition (full population) or for a subset of the full population (subpopulation). One approach that may be used for this objective is to have two separate trials, where in the first trial, data are collected to determine if the new treatment benefits the full population or the subpopulation. The second trial is a confirmatory trial to test the new treatment in the population selected in the first trial. In this paper, we consider the more efficient two-stage adaptive seamless designs (ASDs), where in stage 1, data are collected to select the population to test in stage 2. In stage 2, additional data are collected to perform confirmatory analysis for the selected population. Unlike the approach that uses two separate trials, for ASDs, stage 1 data are also used in the confirmatory analysis. Although ASDs are efficient, using stage 1 data both for selection and confirmatory analysis introduces selection bias and consequently statistical challenges in making inference. We will focus on point estimation for such trials. In this paper, we describe the extent of bias for estimators that ignore multiple hypotheses and selecting the population that is most likely to give positive trial results based on observed stage 1 data. We then derive conditionally unbiased estimators and examine their mean squared errors for different scenarios. PMID:25903293
Motorcycle state estimation for lateral dynamics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Teerhuis, A. P.; Jansen, S. T. H.
2012-08-01
The motorcycle lean (or roll) angle development is one of the main characteristics of motorcycle lateral dynamics. Control of motorcycle motions requires an accurate assessment of this quantity and for safety applications also the risk of sliding needs to be considered. Direct measurement of the roll angle and tyre slip is not available; therefore, a method of model-based estimation is developed to estimate the state of a motorcycle. This paper investigates the feasibility of such a motorcycle state estimator (MCSE). A simplified analytic model of a motorcycle is developed by comparison to an extended multi-body model of the motorcycle, designed in Matlab/SimMechanics. The analytic model is used inside an extended Kalman filter. Experimental results of an instrumented Yamaha FJR1300 motorcycle show that the MCSE is a feasible concept for obtaining signals related to the lateral dynamics of the motorcycle.
Cryptography and system state estimation using polarization states
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kak, Subhash; Verma, Pramode; MacDonald, Greg
2011-09-01
We present new results on cryptography and system state estimation using polarization states of photons. Current quantum cryptography applications are based on the BB84 protocol which is not secure against photon siphoning attacks. Recent research has established that the information that can be obtained from a pure state in repeated experiments is potentially infinite. This can be harnessed by sending a burst of photons confined to a very narrow time window, each such burst containing several bits of information. The proposed method represents a new way of transmitting secret information. While polarization shift-keying methods have been proposed earlier, our method is somewhat different in that it proposes to discover the polarization state of identical photons in a burst from a laser which codes binary information. We also present results on estimating the state of a system based on the polarization of the received photons which can have applications in intrusion detection.
A state estimation of Liu equations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ananyev, B. I.
2015-11-01
This paper is concerned with state estimation problems for so-called Liu equations. These equations are counterparts of well-known Ito ones and they were introduced by B. Liu under elaboration of his uncertain theory. The Liu equations may be solved backward and they represent a more convenient object for the state estimation problem solution especially for the case when distributions of disturbances are unknown. Using the dynamic programming principle, we derive an equation for the informational set consisting of all states that are compatible with measuring data. Special cases of Liu equations and constraints for disturbances are examined. Among them the linear equations with quadratic constraints are considered in most details. Some examples are also given.
Zorgani, Youssef Agrebi; Koubaa, Yassine; Boussak, Mohamed
2016-03-01
This paper presents a novel method for estimating the load torque of a sensorless indirect stator flux oriented controlled (ISFOC) induction motor drive based on the model reference adaptive system (MRAS) scheme. As a matter of fact, this method is meant to inter-connect a speed estimator with the load torque observer. For this purpose, a MRAS has been applied to estimate the rotor speed with tuned load torque in order to obtain a high performance ISFOC induction motor drive. The reference and adjustable models, developed in the stationary stator reference frame, are used in the MRAS scheme in an attempt to estimate the speed of the measured terminal voltages and currents. The load torque is estimated by means of a Luenberger observer defined throughout the mechanical equation. Every observer state matrix depends on the mechanical characteristics of the machine taking into account the vicious friction coefficient and inertia moment. Accordingly, some simulation results are presented to validate the proposed method and to highlight the influence of the variation of the inertia moment and the friction coefficient on the speed and the estimated load torque. The experimental results, concerning to the sensorless speed with a load torque estimation, are elaborated in order to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The complete sensorless ISFOC with load torque estimation is successfully implemented in real time using a digital signal processor board DSpace DS1104 for a laboratory 3 kW induction motor. PMID:26775088
Optimal error regions for quantum state estimation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shang, Jiangwei; Khoon Ng, Hui; Sehrawat, Arun; Li, Xikun; Englert, Berthold-Georg
2013-12-01
An estimator is a state that represents one's best guess of the actual state of the quantum system for the given data. Such estimators are points in the state space. To be statistically meaningful, they have to be endowed with error regions, the generalization of error bars beyond one dimension. As opposed to standard ad hoc constructions of error regions, we introduce the maximum-likelihood region—the region of largest likelihood among all regions of the same size—as the natural counterpart of the popular maximum-likelihood estimator. Here, the size of a region is its prior probability. A related concept is the smallest credible region—the smallest region with pre-chosen posterior probability. In both cases, the optimal error region has constant likelihood on its boundary. This surprisingly simple characterization permits concise reporting of the error regions, even in high-dimensional problems. For illustration, we identify optimal error regions for single-qubit and two-qubit states from computer-generated data that simulate incomplete tomography with few measured copies.
Estimated Water Flows in 2005: United States
Smith, C A; Belles, R D; Simon, A J
2011-03-16
Flow charts depicting water use in the United States have been constructed from publicly available data and estimates of water use patterns. Approximately 410,500 million gallons per day of water are managed throughout the United States for use in farming, power production, residential, commercial, and industrial applications. Water is obtained from four major resource classes: fresh surface-water, saline (ocean) surface-water, fresh groundwater and saline (brackish) groundwater. Water that is not consumed or evaporated during its use is returned to surface bodies of water. The flow patterns are represented in a compact 'visual atlas' of 52 state-level (all 50 states in addition to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands) and one national water flow chart representing a comprehensive systems view of national water resources, use, and disposition.
An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for Batch State Estimation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.
2011-01-01
State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. Consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. It then follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully account for the error in the state estimate. By way of a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm, it is possible to arrive at an appropriate, and formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix. The first specific step of the method is to use the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than its usual total weighted residual form. Next it is helpful to interpret the solution to the normal equations as the average of a collection of sample vectors drawn from a hypothetical parent population. From here, using a standard statistical analysis approach, it directly follows as to how to determine the standard empirical state error covariance matrix. This matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the
Parallel State Estimation Assessment with Practical Data
Chen, Yousu; Jin, Shuangshuang; Rice, Mark J.; Huang, Zhenyu
2013-07-31
This paper presents a parallel state estimation (PSE) implementation using a preconditioned gradient algorithm and an orthogonal decomposition-based algorithm. The preliminary tests against a commercial Energy Management System (EMS) State Estimation (SE) tool using real-world data are performed. The results show that while the precondition gradient algorithm can solve the SE problem quicker with the help of parallel computing techniques, it might not be good for real-world data due to the large condition number of gain matrix introduced by the wide range of measurement weights. With the help of PETSc package and considering one iteration of the SE process, the orthogonal decomposition-based PSE algorithm can achieve 5-20 times speedup comparing against the commercial EMS tool. It is very promising that the developed PSE can solve the SE problem for large power systems at the SCADA rate, to improve grid reliability.
Estimated United States Transportation Energy Use 2005
Smith, C A; Simon, A J; Belles, R D
2011-11-09
A flow chart depicting energy flow in the transportation sector of the United States economy in 2005 has been constructed from publicly available data and estimates of national energy use patterns. Approximately 31,000 trillion British Thermal Units (trBTUs) of energy were used throughout the United States in transportation activities. Vehicles used in these activities include automobiles, motorcycles, trucks, buses, airplanes, rail, and ships. The transportation sector is powered primarily by petroleum-derived fuels (gasoline, diesel and jet fuel). Biomass-derived fuels, electricity and natural gas-derived fuels are also used. The flow patterns represent a comprehensive systems view of energy used within the transportation sector.
Codon Usage Selection Can Bias Estimation of the Fraction of Adaptive Amino Acid Fixations.
Matsumoto, Tomotaka; John, Anoop; Baeza-Centurion, Pablo; Li, Boyang; Akashi, Hiroshi
2016-06-01
A growing number of molecular evolutionary studies are estimating the proportion of adaptive amino acid substitutions (α) from comparisons of ratios of polymorphic and fixed DNA mutations. Here, we examine how violations of two of the model assumptions, neutral evolution of synonymous mutations and stationary base composition, affect α estimation. We simulated the evolution of coding sequences assuming weak selection on synonymous codon usage bias and neutral protein evolution, α = 0. We show that weak selection on synonymous mutations can give polymorphism/divergence ratios that yield α-hat (estimated α) considerably larger than its true value. Nonstationary evolution (changes in population size, selection, or mutation) can exacerbate such biases or, in some scenarios, give biases in the opposite direction, α-hat < α. These results demonstrate that two factors that appear to be prevalent among taxa, weak selection on synonymous mutations and non-steady-state nucleotide composition, should be considered when estimating α. Estimates of the proportion of adaptive amino acid fixations from large-scale analyses of Drosophila melanogaster polymorphism and divergence data are positively correlated with codon usage bias. Such patterns are consistent with α-hat inflation from weak selection on synonymous mutations and/or mutational changes within the examined gene trees. PMID:26873577
Occupancy estimation and modeling with multiple states and state uncertainty
Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; MacKenzie, D.I.; Seamans, M.E.; Gutierrez, R.J.
2007-01-01
The distribution of a species over space is of central interest in ecology, but species occurrence does not provide all of the information needed to characterize either the well-being of a population or the suitability of occupied habitat. Recent methodological development has focused on drawing inferences about species occurrence in the face of imperfect detection. Here we extend those methods by characterizing occupied locations by some additional state variable ( e. g., as producing young or not). Our modeling approach deals with both detection probabilities,1 and uncertainty in state classification. We then use the approach with occupancy and reproductive rate data from California Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) collected in the central Sierra Nevada during the breeding season of 2004 to illustrate the utility of the modeling approach. Estimates of owl reproductive rate were larger than naive estimates, indicating the importance of appropriately accounting for uncertainty in detection and state classification.
Adaptive neuro-fuzzy estimation of optimal lens system parameters
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Petković, Dalibor; Pavlović, Nenad T.; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Mat Kiah, Miss Laiha; Badrul Anuar, Nor; Idna Idris, Mohd Yamani
2014-04-01
Due to the popularization of digital technology, the demand for high-quality digital products has become critical. The quantitative assessment of image quality is an important consideration in any type of imaging system. Therefore, developing a design that combines the requirements of good image quality is desirable. Lens system design represents a crucial factor for good image quality. Optimization procedure is the main part of the lens system design methodology. Lens system optimization is a complex non-linear optimization task, often with intricate physical constraints, for which there is no analytical solutions. Therefore lens system design provides ideal problems for intelligent optimization algorithms. There are many tools which can be used to measure optical performance. One very useful tool is the spot diagram. The spot diagram gives an indication of the image of a point object. In this paper, one optimization criterion for lens system, the spot size radius, is considered. This paper presents new lens optimization methods based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference strategy (ANFIS). This intelligent estimator is implemented using Matlab/Simulink and the performances are investigated.
Discrete Inverse and State Estimation Problems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wunsch, Carl
2006-06-01
The problems of making inferences about the natural world from noisy observations and imperfect theories occur in almost all scientific disciplines. This book addresses these problems using examples taken from geophysical fluid dynamics. It focuses on discrete formulations, both static and time-varying, known variously as inverse, state estimation or data assimilation problems. Starting with fundamental algebraic and statistical ideas, the book guides the reader through a range of inference tools including the singular value decomposition, Gauss-Markov and minimum variance estimates, Kalman filters and related smoothers, and adjoint (Lagrange multiplier) methods. The final chapters discuss a variety of practical applications to geophysical flow problems. Discrete Inverse and State Estimation Problems is an ideal introduction to the topic for graduate students and researchers in oceanography, meteorology, climate dynamics, and geophysical fluid dynamics. It is also accessible to a wider scientific audience; the only prerequisite is an understanding of linear algebra. Provides a comprehensive introduction to discrete methods of inference from incomplete information Based upon 25 years of practical experience using real data and models Develops sequential and whole-domain analysis methods from simple least-squares Contains many examples and problems, and web-based support through MIT opencourseware
Resting State Network Estimation in Individual Subjects
Hacker, Carl D.; Laumann, Timothy O.; Szrama, Nicholas P.; Baldassarre, Antonello; Snyder, Abraham Z.
2014-01-01
Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has been used to study brain networks associated with both normal and pathological cognitive function. The objective of this work is to reliably compute resting state network (RSN) topography in single participants. We trained a supervised classifier (multi-layer perceptron; MLP) to associate blood oxygen level dependent (BOLD) correlation maps corresponding to pre-defined seeds with specific RSN identities. Hard classification of maps obtained from a priori seeds was highly reliable across new participants. Interestingly, continuous estimates of RSN membership retained substantial residual error. This result is consistent with the view that RSNs are hierarchically organized, and therefore not fully separable into spatially independent components. After training on a priori seed-based maps, we propagated voxel-wise correlation maps through the MLP to produce estimates of RSN membership throughout the brain. The MLP generated RSN topography estimates in individuals consistent with previous studies, even in brain regions not represented in the training data. This method could be used in future studies to relate RSN topography to other measures of functional brain organization (e.g., task-evoked responses, stimulation mapping, and deficits associated with lesions) in individuals. The multi-layer perceptron was directly compared to two alternative voxel classification procedures, specifically, dual regression and linear discriminant analysis; the perceptron generated more spatially specific RSN maps than either alternative. PMID:23735260
Adaptive optimal stochastic state feedback control of resistive wall modes in tokamaks
Sun, Z.; Sen, A.K.; Longman, R.W.
2006-01-15
An adaptive optimal stochastic state feedback control is developed to stabilize the resistive wall mode (RWM) instability in tokamaks. The extended least-square method with exponential forgetting factor and covariance resetting is used to identify (experimentally determine) the time-varying stochastic system model. A Kalman filter is used to estimate the system states. The estimated system states are passed on to an optimal state feedback controller to construct control inputs. The Kalman filter and the optimal state feedback controller are periodically redesigned online based on the identified system model. This adaptive controller can stabilize the time-dependent RWM in a slowly evolving tokamak discharge. This is accomplished within a time delay of roughly four times the inverse of the growth rate for the time-invariant model used.
Spin State Estimation of Tumbling Small Bodies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Olson, Corwin; Russell, Ryan P.; Bhaskaran, Shyam
2016-06-01
It is expected that a non-trivial percentage of small bodies that future missions may visit are in non-principal axis rotation (i.e. "tumbling"). The primary contribution of this paper is the application of the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) method to estimate the small body spin state, mass, and moments of inertia; the spacecraft position and velocity; and the surface landmark locations. The method uses optical landmark measurements, and an example scenario based on the Rosetta mission is used. The SLAM method proves effective, with order of magnitude decreases in the spacecraft and small body spin state errors after less than a quarter of the comet characterization phase. The SLAM method converges nicely for initial small body angular velocity errors several times larger than the true rates (effectively having no a priori knowledge of the angular velocity). Surface landmark generation and identification are not treated in this work, but significant errors in the initial body-fixed landmark positions are effectively estimated. The algorithm remains effective for a range of different truth spin states, masses, and center of mass offsets that correspond to expected tumbling small bodies throughout the solar system.
Spin State Estimation of Tumbling Small Bodies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Olson, Corwin; Russell, Ryan P.; Bhaskaran, Shyam
2016-02-01
It is expected that a non-trivial percentage of small bodies that future missions may visit are in non-principal axis rotation (i.e. "tumbling"). The primary contribution of this paper is the application of the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) method to estimate the small body spin state, mass, and moments of inertia; the spacecraft position and velocity; and the surface landmark locations. The method uses optical landmark measurements, and an example scenario based on the Rosetta mission is used. The SLAM method proves effective, with order of magnitude decreases in the spacecraft and small body spin state errors after less than a quarter of the comet characterization phase. The SLAM method converges nicely for initial small body angular velocity errors several times larger than the true rates (effectively having no a priori knowledge of the angular velocity). Surface landmark generation and identification are not treated in this work, but significant errors in the initial body-fixed landmark positions are effectively estimated. The algorithm remains effective for a range of different truth spin states, masses, and center of mass offsets that correspond to expected tumbling small bodies throughout the solar system.
The state of climate change adaptation in the Arctic
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ford, James D.; McDowell, Graham; Jones, Julie
2014-10-01
The Arctic climate is rapidly changing, with wide ranging impacts on natural and social systems. A variety of adaptation policies, programs and practices have been adopted to this end, yet our understanding of if, how, and where adaptation is occurring is limited. In response, this paper develops a systematic approach to characterize the current state of adaptation in the Arctic. Using reported adaptations in the English language peer reviewed literature as our data source, we document 157 discrete adaptation initiatives between 2003 and 2013. Results indicate large variations in adaptation by region and sector, dominated by reporting from North America, particularly with regards to subsistence harvesting by Inuit communities. Few adaptations were documented in the European and Russian Arctic, or have a focus on the business and economy, or infrastructure sectors. Adaptations are being motivated primarily by the combination of climatic and non-climatic factors, have a strong emphasis on reducing current vulnerability involving incremental changes to existing risk management processes, and are primarily initiated and led at the individual/community level. There is limited evidence of trans-boundary adaptations or initiatives considering potential cross-scale/sector impacts.
Maximal adaptive-decision speedups in quantum-state readout
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
D'Anjou, Benjamin; Kuret, Loutfi; Childress, Lilian; Coish, William A.
The average time T required for high-fidelity readout of quantum states can be significantly reduced via a real-time adaptive decision rule. An adaptive decision rule stops the readout as soon as a desired level of confidence has been achieved, as opposed to setting a fixed readout time tf. The performance of the adaptive decision is characterized by the ``adaptive-decision speedup'', tf / T . In this work, we reformulate this readout problem in terms of the first-passage time of a particle undergoing stochastic motion. This formalism allows us to theoretically establish the maximum achievable adaptive-decision speedups for several physical two-state readout implementations. We show that for two common readout schemes (the Gaussian latching readout and a readout relying on state-dependent decay), the speedup is bounded by 4 and 2, respectively, in the limit of high single-shot readout fidelity. We experimentally study the achievable speedup in a real-world scenario by applying the adaptive decision rule to a readout of the nitrogen-vacancy-center (NV-center) charge state. We find a speedup of ~ 2 with our experimental parameters. Our results should lead to immediate improvements in nano-scale magnetometry based on spin-to-charge conversion of the NV-center spin. We acknowledge support from NSERC, INTRIQ, CIFAR and the Walter C. Sumner Foundation.
Adaptive importance sampling of random walks on continuous state spaces
Baggerly, K.; Cox, D.; Picard, R.
1998-11-01
The authors consider adaptive importance sampling for a random walk with scoring in a general state space. Conditions under which exponential convergence occurs to the zero-variance solution are reviewed. These results generalize previous work for finite, discrete state spaces in Kollman (1993) and in Kollman, Baggerly, Cox, and Picard (1996). This paper is intended for nonstatisticians and includes considerable explanatory material.
Hellander, Andreas; Lawson, Michael J; Drawert, Brian; Petzold, Linda
2015-01-01
The efficiency of exact simulation methods for the reaction-diffusion master equation (RDME) is severely limited by the large number of diffusion events if the mesh is fine or if diffusion constants are large. Furthermore, inherent properties of exact kinetic-Monte Carlo simulation methods limit the efficiency of parallel implementations. Several approximate and hybrid methods have appeared that enable more efficient simulation of the RDME. A common feature to most of them is that they rely on splitting the system into its reaction and diffusion parts and updating them sequentially over a discrete timestep. This use of operator splitting enables more efficient simulation but it comes at the price of a temporal discretization error that depends on the size of the timestep. So far, existing methods have not attempted to estimate or control this error in a systematic manner. This makes the solvers hard to use for practitioners since they must guess an appropriate timestep. It also makes the solvers potentially less efficient than if the timesteps are adapted to control the error. Here, we derive estimates of the local error and propose a strategy to adaptively select the timestep when the RDME is simulated via a first order operator splitting. While the strategy is general and applicable to a wide range of approximate and hybrid methods, we exemplify it here by extending a previously published approximate method, the Diffusive Finite-State Projection (DFSP) method, to incorporate temporal adaptivity. PMID:26865735
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hellander, Andreas; Lawson, Michael J.; Drawert, Brian; Petzold, Linda
2014-06-01
The efficiency of exact simulation methods for the reaction-diffusion master equation (RDME) is severely limited by the large number of diffusion events if the mesh is fine or if diffusion constants are large. Furthermore, inherent properties of exact kinetic-Monte Carlo simulation methods limit the efficiency of parallel implementations. Several approximate and hybrid methods have appeared that enable more efficient simulation of the RDME. A common feature to most of them is that they rely on splitting the system into its reaction and diffusion parts and updating them sequentially over a discrete timestep. This use of operator splitting enables more efficient simulation but it comes at the price of a temporal discretization error that depends on the size of the timestep. So far, existing methods have not attempted to estimate or control this error in a systematic manner. This makes the solvers hard to use for practitioners since they must guess an appropriate timestep. It also makes the solvers potentially less efficient than if the timesteps were adapted to control the error. Here, we derive estimates of the local error and propose a strategy to adaptively select the timestep when the RDME is simulated via a first order operator splitting. While the strategy is general and applicable to a wide range of approximate and hybrid methods, we exemplify it here by extending a previously published approximate method, the diffusive finite-state projection (DFSP) method, to incorporate temporal adaptivity.
Modeling Speed-Accuracy Tradeoff in Adaptive System for Practicing Estimation
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Nižnan, Juraj
2015-01-01
Estimation is useful in situations where an exact answer is not as important as a quick answer that is good enough. A web-based adaptive system for practicing estimates is currently being developed. We propose a simple model for estimating student's latent skill of estimation. This model combines a continuous measure of correctness and response…
Eldred, Michael Scott; Subia, Samuel Ramirez; Neckels, David; Hopkins, Matthew Morgan; Notz, Patrick K.; Adams, Brian M.; Carnes, Brian; Wittwer, Jonathan W.; Bichon, Barron J.; Copps, Kevin D.
2006-10-01
This report documents the results for an FY06 ASC Algorithms Level 2 milestone combining error estimation and adaptivity, uncertainty quantification, and probabilistic design capabilities applied to the analysis and design of bistable MEMS. Through the use of error estimation and adaptive mesh refinement, solution verification can be performed in an automated and parameter-adaptive manner. The resulting uncertainty analysis and probabilistic design studies are shown to be more accurate, efficient, reliable, and convenient.
Characteristics of Bayesian multiple model adaptive estimation for tracking airborne targets
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Netzer, A. S.
1985-12-01
Previous studies at the Air Force Institute of Technology have led to the development of a multiple model adaptive filter (MMAF) tracking algorithm which provides significant improvements in tracker performance against highly-dynamic airborne targets over the currently used correlation trackers. A forward looking infra-red (FLIR) sensor is used to provide a target shape function to the tracking algorithm in the form of an 8 x 8 array of intensities projected onto a field of view (FOV). This target image measurement is correlated with an estimate of the target image template, to produce linear offset pseudo-measurements from the center of the FOV, which are provided as measurements to a bank of linear Kalman filters, in the multiple model adaptive filtering (MMAF) structure. The output of the MMAF provides the state estimates used in pointing the FLIR sensor, and generating the new target image estimate. This study investigates the characteristics of this algorithm in order to evaluate its performance against various target scenarios.
Mood states influence cognitive control: the case of conflict adaptation.
Schuch, Stefanie; Koch, Iring
2015-09-01
Conflict adaptation can be measured by the "congruency sequence effect", denoting the reduction of congruency effects after incongruent trials (where response conflict occurs) relative to congruent trials (without response conflict). Recently, it has been reported that conflict adaptation is larger in negative mood than in positive mood (van Steenbergen et al., Psychological Science 21:1629-1634, 2010). We conducted two experiments further investigating this important finding. Two different interference paradigms were applied to measure conflict adaptation: Experiment 1 was a Flanker task, Experiment 2 was a Stroop-like task. To get as pure a measure of conflict adaptation as possible, we minimized the influence of trial-to-trial priming effects by excluding all kinds of stimulus repetitions. Mood states were induced by presenting film clips with emotional content prior to the interference task. Three mood states were manipulated between subjects: amused, anxious, and sad. Across both interference paradigms, we consistently found conflict adaptation in negative, but not in positive mood. Taken together with van Steenbergen et al. (Psychological Science 21:1629-1634, 2010) findings, the results suggest that the negative-mood-triggered increase in conflict adaptation is a general phenomenon that occurs independently of the particular mood-induction procedure and interference paradigm involved. PMID:25100233
Reliability Value of Fast State Estimation on Power Systems
Elizondo, Marcelo A.; Chen, Yousu; Huang, Zhenyu
2012-05-07
Monitoring the state of a power system under stress is key to achieving reliable operation. State estimation and timely measurements become more important when applying and designing corrective control actions (manual and automatic) to arrest or mitigate cascading blackouts. The execution time of each process, including state estimation, should be as short as possible to allow for timely action. In this paper, we provide a methodology for estimating one of the components of value of faster and more frequent state estimation: the reliability value of state estimation to assist corrective control actions for arresting or mitigating cascading blackouts. We present a new algorithm for estimating the time between successive line trips in a cascading failure. The algorithm combines power flow calculations with characteristics of the protection system to estimate the time between successive equipment trips. Using this algorithm, we illustrate the value of fast state estimation by calculating the time remaining for automatic or manual corrective actions after state estimation is finalized.
Experimental adaptive quantum tomography of two-qubit states
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Struchalin, G. I.; Pogorelov, I. A.; Straupe, S. S.; Kravtsov, K. S.; Radchenko, I. V.; Kulik, S. P.
2016-01-01
We report an experimental realization of adaptive Bayesian quantum state tomography for two-qubit states. Our implementation is based on the adaptive experimental design strategy proposed in the work by Huszár and Houlsby [F. Huszár and N. M. T. Houlsby, Phys. Rev. A 85, 052120 (2012)., 10.1103/PhysRevA.85.052120] and provides an optimal measurement approach in terms of the information gain. We address the practical questions which one faces in any experimental application: the influence of technical noise and the behavior of the tomographic algorithm for an easy-to-implement class of factorized measurements. In an experiment with polarization states of entangled photon pairs, we observe a lower instrumental noise floor and superior reconstruction accuracy for nearly pure states of the adaptive protocol compared to a nonadaptive protocol. At the same time, we show that for the mixed states, the restriction to factorized measurements results in no advantage for adaptive measurements, so general measurements have to be used.
Lesmes, Luis A.; Lu, Zhong-Lin; Baek, Jongsoo; Tran, Nina; Dosher, Barbara A.; Albright, Thomas D.
2015-01-01
Motivated by Signal Detection Theory (SDT), we developed a family of novel adaptive methods that estimate the sensitivity threshold—the signal intensity corresponding to a pre-defined sensitivity level (d′ = 1)—in Yes-No (YN) and Forced-Choice (FC) detection tasks. Rather than focus stimulus sampling to estimate a single level of %Yes or %Correct, the current methods sample psychometric functions more broadly, to concurrently estimate sensitivity and decision factors, and thereby estimate thresholds that are independent of decision confounds. Developed for four tasks—(1) simple YN detection, (2) cued YN detection, which cues the observer's response state before each trial, (3) rated YN detection, which incorporates a Not Sure response, and (4) FC detection—the qYN and qFC methods yield sensitivity thresholds that are independent of the task's decision structure (YN or FC) and/or the observer's subjective response state. Results from simulation and psychophysics suggest that 25 trials (and sometimes less) are sufficient to estimate YN thresholds with reasonable precision (s.d. = 0.10–0.15 decimal log units), but more trials are needed for FC thresholds. When the same subjects were tested across tasks of simple, cued, rated, and FC detection, adaptive threshold estimates exhibited excellent agreement with the method of constant stimuli (MCS), and with each other. These YN adaptive methods deliver criterion-free thresholds that have previously been exclusive to FC methods. PMID:26300798
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, T.; Lin, X.; Yang, X.
2014-12-01
More serious drought has been projected due to the climate change in the Kansas State of the U.S., which might threaten the local agriculture and thus require effective adaptation responses to drought, e.g. better irrigation. But the irrigation adaptation on drought at the current technology-level is poorly quantified, therefore challenges to figure out how much additional efforts are required under more aridity of climate. Here, we collect the irrigation application data for maize, soybean, sorghum and wheat in Kansas, and establish a two-stage model to quantify the crop-specific irrigation application responses to changes in climatic drivers, and further estimate the existing effectiveness of the irrigation to adapt future drought based on the IPCC AR5 ensemble PDSI prediction under RCP4.5 scenario. We find that the three summer season crops (maize, soybean and sorghum) would experience 0 - 20% yield losses depending on county due to more serious drought since 2030s, even though increased irrigation application as the response of drought had saved 0 - 10% yields. At the state level, maize receives most benefits from irrigation, whereas the beneficial effects are least for sorghum among the three crops. To wheat, irrigation adaptation is very weak since irrigation water applied is much less than the above three crops. But wheat yields were projected to have a slight increase in central and eastern regions because climate would become more moisture over the growing season of winter wheat in future. Our results highlight that the existing beneficial effects from irrigation would be surpassed by the negative impact of drought in future, which would cause overall yield reduction in Kansas especially for those summer season crops.
Maximal Adaptive-Decision Speedups in Quantum-State Readout
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
D'Anjou, B.; Kuret, L.; Childress, L.; Coish, W. A.
2016-01-01
The average time T required for high-fidelity readout of quantum states can be significantly reduced via a real-time adaptive decision rule. An adaptive decision rule stops the readout as soon as a desired level of confidence has been achieved, as opposed to setting a fixed readout time tf . The performance of the adaptive decision is characterized by the "adaptive-decision speedup," tf/T . In this work, we reformulate this readout problem in terms of the first-passage time of a particle undergoing stochastic motion. This formalism allows us to theoretically establish the maximum achievable adaptive-decision speedups for several physical two-state readout implementations. We show that for two common readout schemes (the Gaussian latching readout and a readout relying on state-dependent decay), the speedup is bounded by 4 and 2, respectively, in the limit of high single-shot readout fidelity. We experimentally study the achievable speedup in a real-world scenario by applying the adaptive decision rule to a readout of the nitrogen-vacancy-center (NV-center) charge state. We find a speedup of ≈2 with our experimental parameters. In addition, we propose a simple readout scheme for which the speedup can, in principle, be increased without bound as the fidelity is increased. Our results should lead to immediate improvements in nanoscale magnetometry based on spin-to-charge conversion of the NV-center spin, and provide a theoretical framework for further optimization of the bandwidth of quantum measurements.
Estimating Power System Dynamic States Using Extended Kalman Filter
Huang, Zhenyu; Schneider, Kevin P.; Nieplocha, Jaroslaw; Zhou, Ning
2014-10-31
Abstract—The state estimation tools which are currently deployed in power system control rooms are based on a steady state assumption. As a result, the suite of operational tools that rely on state estimation results as inputs do not have dynamic information available and their accuracy is compromised. This paper investigates the application of Extended Kalman Filtering techniques for estimating dynamic states in the state estimation process. The new formulated “dynamic state estimation” includes true system dynamics reflected in differential equations, not like previously proposed “dynamic state estimation” which only considers the time-variant snapshots based on steady state modeling. This new dynamic state estimation using Extended Kalman Filter has been successfully tested on a multi-machine system. Sensitivity studies with respect to noise levels, sampling rates, model errors, and parameter errors are presented as well to illustrate the robust performance of the developed dynamic state estimation process.
Broom, Donald M
2006-01-01
The term adaptation is used in biology in three different ways. It may refer to changes which occur at the cell and organ level, or at the individual level, or at the level of gene action and evolutionary processes. Adaptation by cells, especially nerve cells helps in: communication within the body, the distinguishing of stimuli, the avoidance of overload and the conservation of energy. The time course and complexity of these mechanisms varies. Adaptive characters of organisms, including adaptive behaviours, increase fitness so this adaptation is evolutionary. The major part of this paper concerns adaptation by individuals and its relationships to welfare. In complex animals, feed forward control is widely used. Individuals predict problems and adapt by acting before the environmental effect is substantial. Much of adaptation involves brain control and animals have a set of needs, located in the brain and acting largely via motivational mechanisms, to regulate life. Needs may be for resources but are also for actions and stimuli which are part of the mechanism which has evolved to obtain the resources. Hence pigs do not just need food but need to be able to carry out actions like rooting in earth or manipulating materials which are part of foraging behaviour. The welfare of an individual is its state as regards its attempts to cope with its environment. This state includes various adaptive mechanisms including feelings and those which cope with disease. The part of welfare which is concerned with coping with pathology is health. Disease, which implies some significant effect of pathology, always results in poor welfare. Welfare varies over a range from very good, when adaptation is effective and there are feelings of pleasure or contentment, to very poor. A key point concerning the concept of individual adaptation in relation to welfare is that welfare may be good or poor while adaptation is occurring. Some adaptation is very easy and energetically cheap and
Nonparametric estimation of quantum states, processes and measurements
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lougovski, Pavel; Bennink, Ryan
Quantum state, process, and measurement estimation methods traditionally use parametric models, in which the number and role of relevant parameters is assumed to be known. When such an assumption cannot be justified, a common approach in many disciplines is to fit the experimental data to multiple models with different sets of parameters and utilize an information criterion to select the best fitting model. However, it is not always possible to assume a model with a finite (countable) number of parameters. This typically happens when there are unobserved variables that stem from hidden correlations that can only be unveiled after collecting experimental data. How does one perform quantum characterization in this situation? We present a novel nonparametric method of experimental quantum system characterization based on the Dirichlet Process (DP) that addresses this problem. Using DP as a prior in conjunction with Bayesian estimation methods allows us to increase model complexity (number of parameters) adaptively as the number of experimental observations grows. We illustrate our approach for the one-qubit case and show how a probability density function for an unknown quantum process can be estimated.
A frequency-domain estimator for use in adaptive control systems
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lamaire, Richard O.; Valavani, Lena; Athans, Michael; Stein, Gunter
1991-01-01
This paper presents a frequency-domain estimator that can identify both a parametrized nominal model of a plant as well as a frequency-domain bounding function on the modeling error associated with this nominal model. This estimator, which we call a robust estimator, can be used in conjunction with a robust control-law redesign algorithm to form a robust adaptive controller.
A frequency-domain estimator for use in adaptive control systems
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lamaire, Richard O.; Valavani, Lena; Athans, Michael; Stein, Gunter
1987-01-01
The paper presents a frequency-domain estimator which can identify both a nominal model of a plant as well as a frequency-domain bounding function on the modeling error associated with this nominal model. This estimator, which is called a robust estimator, can be used in conjunction with a robust control-law redesign algorithm to form a robust adaptive controller.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Judith Yue; Kokkinaki, Amalia; Ghorbanidehno, Hojat; Darve, Eric F.; Kitanidis, Peter K.
2015-12-01
Reservoir monitoring aims to provide snapshots of reservoir conditions and their uncertainties to assist operation management and risk analysis. These snapshots may contain millions of state variables, e.g., pressures and saturations, which can be estimated by assimilating data in real time using the Kalman filter (KF). However, the KF has a computational cost that scales quadratically with the number of unknowns, m, due to the cost of computing and storing the covariance and Jacobian matrices, along with their products. The compressed state Kalman filter (CSKF) adapts the KF for solving large-scale monitoring problems. The CSKF uses N preselected orthogonal bases to compute an accurate rank-N approximation of the covariance that is close to the optimal spectral approximation given by SVD. The CSKF has a computational cost that scales linearly in m and uses an efficient matrix-free approach that propagates uncertainties using N + 1 forward model evaluations, where N≪m. Here we present a generalized CSKF algorithm for nonlinear state estimation problems such as CO2 monitoring. For simultaneous estimation of multiple types of state variables, the algorithm allows selecting bases that represent the variability of each state type. Through synthetic numerical experiments of CO2 monitoring, we show that the CSKF can reproduce the Kalman gain accurately even for large compression ratios (m/N). For a given computational cost, the CSKF uses a robust and flexible compression scheme that gives more reliable uncertainty estimates than the ensemble Kalman filter, which may display loss of ensemble variability leading to suboptimal uncertainty estimates.
Estimating State IQ: Measurement Challenges and Preliminary Correlates
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
McDaniel, Michael A.
2006-01-01
The purpose of this study is threefold. First, an estimate of state IQ is derived and its strengths and limitations are considered. To that end, an indicator of downward bias in estimating state IQ is provided. Two preliminary causal models are offered that predict state IQ. These models were found to be highly predictive of state IQ, yielding…
An Adaptive Displacement Estimation Algorithm for Improved Reconstruction of Thermal Strain
Ding, Xuan; Dutta, Debaditya; Mahmoud, Ahmed M.; Tillman, Bryan; Leers, Steven A.; Kim, Kang
2014-01-01
Thermal strain imaging (TSI) can be used to differentiate between lipid and water-based tissues in atherosclerotic arteries. However, detecting small lipid pools in vivo requires accurate and robust displacement estimation over a wide range of displacement magnitudes. Phase-shift estimators such as Loupas’ estimator and time-shift estimators like normalized cross-correlation (NXcorr) are commonly used to track tissue displacements. However, Loupas’ estimator is limited by phase-wrapping and NXcorr performs poorly when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is low. In this paper, we present an adaptive displacement estimation algorithm that combines both Loupas’ estimator and NXcorr. We evaluated this algorithm using computer simulations and an ex-vivo human tissue sample. Using 1-D simulation studies, we showed that when the displacement magnitude induced by thermal strain was >λ/8 and the electronic system SNR was >25.5 dB, the NXcorr displacement estimate was less biased than the estimate found using Loupas’ estimator. On the other hand, when the displacement magnitude was ≤λ/4 and the electronic system SNR was ≤25.5 dB, Loupas’ estimator had less variance than NXcorr. We used these findings to design an adaptive displacement estimation algorithm. Computer simulations of TSI using Field II showed that the adaptive displacement estimator was less biased than either Loupas’ estimator or NXcorr. Strain reconstructed from the adaptive displacement estimates improved the strain SNR by 43.7–350% and the spatial accuracy by 1.2–23.0% (p < 0.001). An ex-vivo human tissue study provided results that were comparable to computer simulations. The results of this study showed that a novel displacement estimation algorithm, which combines two different displacement estimators, yielded improved displacement estimation and results in improved strain reconstruction. PMID:25585398
Magnitude Estimation with Noisy Integrators Linked by an Adaptive Reference
Thurley, Kay
2016-01-01
Judgments of physical stimuli show characteristic biases; relatively small stimuli are overestimated whereas relatively large stimuli are underestimated (regression effect). Such biases likely result from a strategy that seeks to minimize errors given noisy estimates about stimuli that itself are drawn from a distribution, i.e., the statistics of the environment. While being conceptually well described, it is unclear how such a strategy could be implemented neurally. The present paper aims toward answering this question. A theoretical approach is introduced that describes magnitude estimation as two successive stages of noisy (neural) integration. Both stages are linked by a reference memory that is updated with every new stimulus. The model reproduces the behavioral characteristics of magnitude estimation and makes several experimentally testable predictions. Moreover, the model identifies the regression effect as a means of minimizing estimation errors and explains how this optimality strategy depends on the subject's discrimination abilities and on the stimulus statistics. The latter influence predicts another property of magnitude estimation, the so-called range effect. Beyond being successful in describing decision-making, the present work suggests that noisy integration may also be important in processing magnitudes. PMID:26909028
Magnitude Estimation with Noisy Integrators Linked by an Adaptive Reference.
Thurley, Kay
2016-01-01
Judgments of physical stimuli show characteristic biases; relatively small stimuli are overestimated whereas relatively large stimuli are underestimated (regression effect). Such biases likely result from a strategy that seeks to minimize errors given noisy estimates about stimuli that itself are drawn from a distribution, i.e., the statistics of the environment. While being conceptually well described, it is unclear how such a strategy could be implemented neurally. The present paper aims toward answering this question. A theoretical approach is introduced that describes magnitude estimation as two successive stages of noisy (neural) integration. Both stages are linked by a reference memory that is updated with every new stimulus. The model reproduces the behavioral characteristics of magnitude estimation and makes several experimentally testable predictions. Moreover, the model identifies the regression effect as a means of minimizing estimation errors and explains how this optimality strategy depends on the subject's discrimination abilities and on the stimulus statistics. The latter influence predicts another property of magnitude estimation, the so-called range effect. Beyond being successful in describing decision-making, the present work suggests that noisy integration may also be important in processing magnitudes. PMID:26909028
Constrained model predictive control, state estimation and coordination
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yan, Jun
In this dissertation, we study the interaction between the control performance and the quality of the state estimation in a constrained Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework for systems with stochastic disturbances. This consists of three parts: (i) the development of a constrained MPC formulation that adapts to the quality of the state estimation via constraints; (ii) the application of such a control law in a multi-vehicle formation coordinated control problem in which each vehicle operates subject to a no-collision constraint posed by others' imperfect prediction computed from finite bit-rate, communicated data; (iii) the design of the predictors and the communication resource assignment problem that satisfy the performance requirement from Part (ii). Model Predictive Control (MPC) is of interest because it is one of the few control design methods which preserves standard design variables and yet handles constraints. MPC is normally posed as a full-state feedback control and is implemented in a certainty-equivalence fashion with best estimates of the states being used in place of the exact state. However, if the state constraints were handled in the same certainty-equivalence fashion, the resulting control law could drive the real state to violate the constraints frequently. Part (i) focuses on exploring the inclusion of state estimates into the constraints. It does this by applying constrained MPC to a system with stochastic disturbances. The stochastic nature of the problem requires re-posing the constraints in a probabilistic form. In Part (ii), we consider applying constrained MPC as a local control law in a coordinated control problem of a group of distributed autonomous systems. Interactions between the systems are captured via constraints. First, we inspect the application of constrained MPC to a completely deterministic case. Formation stability theorems are derived for the subsystems and conditions on the local constraint set are derived in order to
An hp-adaptivity and error estimation for hyperbolic conservation laws
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bey, Kim S.
1995-01-01
This paper presents an hp-adaptive discontinuous Galerkin method for linear hyperbolic conservation laws. A priori and a posteriori error estimates are derived in mesh-dependent norms which reflect the dependence of the approximate solution on the element size (h) and the degree (p) of the local polynomial approximation. The a posteriori error estimate, based on the element residual method, provides bounds on the actual global error in the approximate solution. The adaptive strategy is designed to deliver an approximate solution with the specified level of error in three steps. The a posteriori estimate is used to assess the accuracy of a given approximate solution and the a priori estimate is used to predict the mesh refinements and polynomial enrichment needed to deliver the desired solution. Numerical examples demonstrate the reliability of the a posteriori error estimates and the effectiveness of the hp-adaptive strategy.
Guo, Qing; Sun, Ping; Yin, Jing-Min; Yu, Tian; Jiang, Dan
2016-05-01
Some unknown parameter estimation of electro-hydraulic system (EHS) should be considered in hydraulic controller design due to many parameter uncertainties in practice. In this study, a parametric adaptive backstepping control method is proposed to improve the dynamic behavior of EHS under parametric uncertainties and unknown disturbance (i.e., hydraulic parameters and external load). The unknown parameters of EHS model are estimated by the parametric adaptive estimation law. Then the recursive backstepping controller is designed by Lyapunov technique to realize the displacement control of EHS. To avoid explosion of virtual control in traditional backstepping, a decayed memory filter is presented to re-estimate the virtual control and the dynamic external load. The effectiveness of the proposed controller has been demonstrated by comparison with the controller without adaptive and filter estimation. The comparative experimental results in critical working conditions indicate the proposed approach can achieve better dynamic performance on the motion control of Two-DOF robotic arm. PMID:26920086
Identification of linear system models and state estimators for controls
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chen, Chung-Wen
1992-01-01
The following paper is presented in viewgraph format and covers topics including: (1) linear state feedback control system; (2) Kalman filter state estimation; (3) relation between residual and stochastic part of output; (4) obtaining Kalman filter gain; (5) state estimation under unknown system model and unknown noises; and (6) relationship between filter Markov parameters and system Markov parameters.
Metabolic flux estimation--a self-adaptive evolutionary algorithm with singular value decomposition.
Yang, Jing; Wongsa, Sarawan; Kadirkamanathan, Visakan; Billings, Stephen A; Wright, Phillip C
2007-01-01
Metabolic flux analysis is important for metabolic system regulation and intracellular pathway identification. A popular approach for intracellular flux estimation involves using 13C tracer experiments to label states that can be measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometry or gas chromatography mass spectrometry. However, the bilinear balance equations derived from 13C tracer experiments and the noisy measurements require a nonlinear optimization approach to obtain the optimal solution. In this paper, the flux quantification problem is formulated as an error-minimization problem with equality and inequality constraints through the 13C balance and stoichiometric equations. The stoichiometric constraints are transformed to a null space by singular value decomposition. Self-adaptive evolutionary algorithms are then introduced for flux quantification. The performance of the evolutionary algorithm is compared with ordinary least squares estimation by the simulation of the central pentose phosphate pathway. The proposed algorithm is also applied to the central metabolism of Corynebacterium glutamicum under lysine-producing conditions. A comparison between the results from the proposed algorithm and data from the literature is given. The complexity of a metabolic system with bidirectional reactions is also investigated by analyzing the fluctuations in the flux estimates when available measurements are varied. PMID:17277420
Estimating daily pan evaporation using adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Keskin, M. Erol; Terzi, Özlem; Taylan, Dilek
2009-09-01
Estimation of evaporation is important for water planning, management, and hydrological practices. There are many available methods to estimate evaporation from a water surface, comprising both direct and indirect methods. All the evaporation models are based on crisp conceptions with no uncertainty element coupled into the model structure although in daily evaporation variations there are uncontrollable effects to a certain extent. The probabilistic, statistical, and stochastic approaches require large amounts of data for the modeling purposes and therefore are not practical in local evaporation studies. It is therefore necessary to adopt a better approach for evaporation modeling, which is the fuzzy sets and adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) as used in this paper. ANFIS and fuzzy sets have been evaluated for its applicability to estimate evaporation from meteorological data which is including air and water temperatures, solar radiation, and air pressure obtained from Automated GroWheather meteorological station located near Lake Eğirdir and daily pan evaporation values measured by XVIII. District Directorate of State Hydraulic Works. Results of ANFIS and fuzzy logic approaches were analyzed and compared with measured daily pan evaporation values. ANFIS approach could be employed more successfully in modeling the evaporation process than fuzzy sets.
Adaptive noise estimation and suppression for improving microseismic event detection
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mousavi, S. Mostafa; Langston, Charles A.
2016-09-01
Microseismic data recorded by surface arrays are often strongly contaminated by unwanted noise. This background noise makes the detection of small magnitude events difficult. A noise level estimation and noise reduction algorithm is presented for microseismic data analysis based upon minimally controlled recursive averaging and neighborhood shrinkage estimators. The method might not be compared with more sophisticated and computationally expensive denoising algorithm in terms of preserving detailed features of seismic signal. However, it is fast and data-driven and can be applied in real-time processing of continuous data for event detection purposes. Results from application of this algorithm to synthetic and real seismic data show that it holds a great promise for improving microseismic event detection.
On Time Delay Margin Estimation for Adaptive Control and Optimal Control Modification
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Nguyen, Nhan T.
2011-01-01
This paper presents methods for estimating time delay margin for adaptive control of input delay systems with almost linear structured uncertainty. The bounded linear stability analysis method seeks to represent an adaptive law by a locally bounded linear approximation within a small time window. The time delay margin of this input delay system represents a local stability measure and is computed analytically by three methods: Pade approximation, Lyapunov-Krasovskii method, and the matrix measure method. These methods are applied to the standard model-reference adaptive control, s-modification adaptive law, and optimal control modification adaptive law. The windowing analysis results in non-unique estimates of the time delay margin since it is dependent on the length of a time window and parameters which vary from one time window to the next. The optimal control modification adaptive law overcomes this limitation in that, as the adaptive gain tends to infinity and if the matched uncertainty is linear, then the closed-loop input delay system tends to a LTI system. A lower bound of the time delay margin of this system can then be estimated uniquely without the need for the windowing analysis. Simulation results demonstrates the feasibility of the bounded linear stability method for time delay margin estimation.
State Alcohol-Impaired-Driving Estimates
... estimates are based on data from NHTSA’s Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS). Unfortunately, blood alcohol concentration (BAC) ... involvement); and NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics and Analysis 1200 New Jersey Avenue SE., Washington, DC 20590 ...
Solid state, autonomous attitude estimation system
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rose, C. E.; Runyan, D. P.
This paper describes the means by which star tracker measurements can be used to estimate the rotational position of a space vehicle upon which the trackers are mounted. A nonlinear least squares approach is taken in which a novel method of normalizing the attitude quaternion is developed. Examples of convergence histories are included, as well as an estimate of the memory needed to hold the algorithm.
Bounded Linear Stability Analysis - A Time Delay Margin Estimation Approach for Adaptive Control
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Nguyen, Nhan T.; Ishihara, Abraham K.; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje Srinlvas; Bakhtiari-Nejad, Maryam
2009-01-01
This paper presents a method for estimating time delay margin for model-reference adaptive control of systems with almost linear structured uncertainty. The bounded linear stability analysis method seeks to represent the conventional model-reference adaptive law by a locally bounded linear approximation within a small time window using the comparison lemma. The locally bounded linear approximation of the combined adaptive system is cast in a form of an input-time-delay differential equation over a small time window. The time delay margin of this system represents a local stability measure and is computed analytically by a matrix measure method, which provides a simple analytical technique for estimating an upper bound of time delay margin. Based on simulation results for a scalar model-reference adaptive control system, both the bounded linear stability method and the matrix measure method are seen to provide a reasonably accurate and yet not too conservative time delay margin estimation.
Estimating Position of Mobile Robots From Omnidirectional Vision Using an Adaptive Algorithm.
Li, Luyang; Liu, Yun-Hui; Wang, Kai; Fang, Mu
2015-08-01
This paper presents a novel and simple adaptive algorithm for estimating the position of a mobile robot with high accuracy in an unknown and unstructured environment by fusing images of an omnidirectional vision system with measurements of odometry and inertial sensors. Based on a new derivation where the omnidirectional projection can be linearly parameterized by the positions of the robot and natural feature points, we propose a novel adaptive algorithm, which is similar to the Slotine-Li algorithm in model-based adaptive control, to estimate the robot's position by using the tracked feature points in image sequence, the robot's velocity, and orientation angles measured by odometry and inertial sensors. It is proved that the adaptive algorithm leads to global exponential convergence of the position estimation errors to zero. Simulations and real-world experiments are performed to demonstrate the performance of the proposed algorithm. PMID:25265622
Geometric-Algebra LMS Adaptive Filter and Its Application to Rotation Estimation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lopes, Wilder B.; Al-Nuaimi, Anas; Lopes, Cassio G.
2016-06-01
This paper exploits Geometric (Clifford) Algebra (GA) theory in order to devise and introduce a new adaptive filtering strategy. From a least-squares cost function, the gradient is calculated following results from Geometric Calculus (GC), the extension of GA to handle differential and integral calculus. The novel GA least-mean-squares (GA-LMS) adaptive filter, which inherits properties from standard adaptive filters and from GA, is developed to recursively estimate a rotor (multivector), a hypercomplex quantity able to describe rotations in any dimension. The adaptive filter (AF) performance is assessed via a 3D point-clouds registration problem, which contains a rotation estimation step. Calculating the AF computational complexity suggests that it can contribute to reduce the cost of a full-blown 3D registration algorithm, especially when the number of points to be processed grows. Moreover, the employed GA/GC framework allows for easily applying the resulting filter to estimating rotors in higher dimensions.
Systems identification and the adaptive management of waterfowl in the United States
Williams, B.K.; Nichols, J.D.
2001-01-01
Waterfowl management in the United States is one of the more visible conservation success stories in the United States. It is authorized and supported by appropriate legislative authorities, based on large-scale monitoring programs, and widely accepted by the public. The process is one of only a limited number of large-scale examples of effective collaboration between research and management, integrating scientific information with management in a coherent framework for regulatory decision-making. However, harvest management continues to face some serious technical problems, many of which focus on sequential identification of the resource system in a context of optimal decision-making. The objective of this paper is to provide a theoretical foundation of adaptive harvest management, the approach currently in use in the United States for regulatory decision-making. We lay out the legal and institutional framework for adaptive harvest management and provide a formal description of regulatory decision-making in terms of adaptive optimization. We discuss some technical and institutional challenges in applying adaptive harvest management and focus specifically on methods of estimating resource states for linear resource systems.
Adaptation of the Steady-state PERG in Early Glaucoma
Porciatti, Vittorio; Bosse, Brandon; Parekh, Prashant K.; Shif, Olga A.; Feuer, William J.; Ventura, Lori M.
2013-01-01
Purpose Previous studies have shown that the onset of high-contrast, fast reversing patterned stimuli induces rapid blood flow increase in retinal vessels in association with slow changes of the steady-state PERG signal. We tested the hypothesis that adaptive PERG changes of normal controls (NC) differed from those of glaucoma suspects (GS) and patients with early manifest glaucoma (EMG). Methods Subjects were 42 GS (SAP MD −0.89 ±1.8 dB), 22 EMG (MD −2.12 ±2.4 dB) with visual acuity of ≥20/20 and 16 age-matched NC from a previous study. The PERG signal was sampled every ~15 s over 4 minutes in response to gratings (1.6 cyc/deg, 100% contrast) reversing 16.28 times/s. Amplitude/phase values of successive PERG samples were fitted with a non-parametric LOWESS smoothing function to retrieve the initial and final values and calculate their difference (delta) and the residual standard deviation around the fitted function (SDr). The magnitude of PERG adaptive change compared to random variability was calculated as log10 of percentage coefficient of variation CoV=100*SDr ÷ |delta|. Grand-average PERGs were also obtained by averaging all samples of the same series. Results The grand-average PERG amplitude (ANOVA, p=0.02), but not phase (ANOVA, p=0.63), decreased with increasing severity of disease. Adaptive changes (log10 (CoV) of PERG amplitude were not significantly associated with disease severity (ANOVA, p=0.27), but adaptive changes (log10 (CoV) of PERG phase were (ANOVA, p=0.037; linear trend, p=0.011). Conclusions The steady-state PERG signal displayed slow adaptive changes over time that could be isolated from random variability. PERG adaptive changes differed from those of grand-average PERGs (corresponding the standard steady-state PERG), thus representing a new source of biological information about retinal ganglion cell function that may have potential in the study of glaucoma and optic nerve diseases. PMID:23429613
Tsai, M.F.; Tzou, Y.Y.
1997-03-01
In this paper, the authors design and implement an adaptive speed controller that can estimate load torque for ac induction motor drives employing a transputer-based parallel processing technique. The adaptive speed controller, which precedes the field-oriented control loop, consists of a two-degree-of-freedom controller and a feedforward load-torque compensator. The two-degree-of-freedom controller is designed by a pole-placement technique with polynomial manipulations. Its parameters are adjusted adaptively in terms of estimated model parameters. Estimating the model parameters entails a second-order least-squares estimator with constant trace to avoid estimator windup. The design of the feedforward compensator is based on an estimated load-torque model. Estimating the load torque entails a first-order least-squares estimator with variable forgetting factor and covariance resetting, the purposes of which are to detect any slow or sudden changes of torque disturbance, respectively. The resulting adaptive controller is implemented in parallel by IMS T800-20 transputers. Experimental results demonstrate the robustness of the proposed control method in contending with varying load and torque disturbance.
Adaptive error covariances estimation methods for ensemble Kalman filters
Zhen, Yicun; Harlim, John
2015-08-01
This paper presents a computationally fast algorithm for estimating, both, the system and observation noise covariances of nonlinear dynamics, that can be used in an ensemble Kalman filtering framework. The new method is a modification of Belanger's recursive method, to avoid an expensive computational cost in inverting error covariance matrices of product of innovation processes of different lags when the number of observations becomes large. When we use only product of innovation processes up to one-lag, the computational cost is indeed comparable to a recently proposed method by Berry–Sauer's. However, our method is more flexible since it allows for using information from product of innovation processes of more than one-lag. Extensive numerical comparisons between the proposed method and both the original Belanger's and Berry–Sauer's schemes are shown in various examples, ranging from low-dimensional linear and nonlinear systems of SDEs and 40-dimensional stochastically forced Lorenz-96 model. Our numerical results suggest that the proposed scheme is as accurate as the original Belanger's scheme on low-dimensional problems and has a wider range of more accurate estimates compared to Berry–Sauer's method on L-96 example.
A fast algorithm for control and estimation using a polynomial state-space structure
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Shults, James R.; Brubaker, Thomas; Lee, Gordon K. F.
1991-01-01
One of the major problems associated with the control of flexible structures is the estimation of system states. Since the parameters of the structures are not constant under varying loads and conditions, conventional fixed parameter state estimators can not be used to effectively estimate the states of the system. One alternative is to use a state estimator which adapts to the condition of the system. One such estimator is the Kalman filter. This filter is a time varying recursive digital filter which is based upon a model of the system being measured. This filter adapts the model according to the output of the system. Previously, the Kalman filter has only been used in an off-line capacity due to the computational time required for implementation. With recent advances in computer technology, it is becoming a viable tool for use in the on-line environment. A distributed Kalman filter implementation is described for fast estimation of the state of a flexible arm. A key issue, is the sensor structure and initial work on a distributed sensor that could be used with the Kalman filter is presented.
Language Model Combination and Adaptation Using Weighted Finite State Transducers
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Liu, X.; Gales, M. J. F.; Hieronymus, J. L.; Woodland, P. C.
2010-01-01
In speech recognition systems language model (LMs) are often constructed by training and combining multiple n-gram models. They can be either used to represent different genres or tasks found in diverse text sources, or capture stochastic properties of different linguistic symbol sequences, for example, syllables and words. Unsupervised LM adaption may also be used to further improve robustness to varying styles or tasks. When using these techniques, extensive software changes are often required. In this paper an alternative and more general approach based on weighted finite state transducers (WFSTs) is investigated for LM combination and adaptation. As it is entirely based on well-defined WFST operations, minimum change to decoding tools is needed. A wide range of LM combination configurations can be flexibly supported. An efficient on-the-fly WFST decoding algorithm is also proposed. Significant error rate gains of 7.3% relative were obtained on a state-of-the-art broadcast audio recognition task using a history dependently adapted multi-level LM modelling both syllable and word sequences
Image signal-to-noise ratio estimation using adaptive slope nearest-neighbourhood model.
Sim, K S; Teh, V
2015-12-01
A new technique based on nearest neighbourhood method is proposed. In this paper, considering the noise as Gaussian additive white noise, new technique single-image-based estimator is proposed. The performance of this new technique such as adaptive slope nearest neighbourhood is compared with three of the existing method which are original nearest neighbourhood (simple method), first-order interpolation method and shape-preserving piecewise cubic hermite autoregressive moving average. In a few cases involving images with different brightness and edges, this adaptive slope nearest neighbourhood is found to deliver an optimum solution for signal-to-noise ratio estimation problems. For different values of noise variance, the adaptive slope nearest neighbourhood has highest accuracy and less percentage estimation error. Being more robust with white noise, the new proposed technique estimator has efficiency that is significantly greater than those of the three methods. PMID:26292081
Estimating unbiased phenological trends by adapting site-occupancy models.
Roth, Tobias; Strebel, Nicolas; Amrhein, Valentin
2014-08-01
As a response to climate warming, many animals and plants have been found to shift phenologies, such as appearance in spring or timing of reproduction. However, traditional measures for shifts in phenology that are based on observational data likely are biased due to a large influence of population size, observational effort, starting date of a survey, or other causes that may affect the probability of detecting a species. Understanding phenological responses of species to climate change, however, requires a robust measure that could be compared among studies and study years. Here, we developed a new method for estimating arrival and departure dates based on site-occupancy models. Using simulated data, we show that our method provided virtually unbiased estimates of phenological events even if detection probability or the number of sites occupied by the species is changing over time. To illustrate the flexibility of our method, we analyzed spring arrival of two long-distance migrant songbirds and the length of the flight period of two butterfly species, using data from a long-term biodiversity monitoring program in Switzerland. In contrast to many birds that migrate short distances, the two long-distance migrant songbirds tended to postpone average spring arrival by -0.5 days per year between 1995 and 2012. Furthermore, the flight period of the short-distance-flying butterfly species apparently became even shorter over the study period, while the flight period of the longer-distance-flying butterfly species remained relatively stable. Our method could be applied to temporally and spatially extensive data from a wide range of monitoring programs and citizen science projects, to help unravel how species and communities respond to global warming. PMID:25230466
Preliminary Exploration of Adaptive State Predictor Based Human Operator Modeling
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Trujillo, Anna C.; Gregory, Irene M.
2012-01-01
Control-theoretic modeling of the human operator dynamic behavior in manual control tasks has a long and rich history. In the last two decades, there has been a renewed interest in modeling the human operator. There has also been significant work on techniques used to identify the pilot model of a given structure. The purpose of this research is to attempt to go beyond pilot identification based on collected experimental data and to develop a predictor of pilot behavior. An experiment was conducted to quantify the effects of changing aircraft dynamics on an operator s ability to track a signal in order to eventually model a pilot adapting to changing aircraft dynamics. A gradient descent estimator and a least squares estimator with exponential forgetting used these data to predict pilot stick input. The results indicate that individual pilot characteristics and vehicle dynamics did not affect the accuracy of either estimator method to estimate pilot stick input. These methods also were able to predict pilot stick input during changing aircraft dynamics and they may have the capability to detect a change in a subject due to workload, engagement, etc., or the effects of changes in vehicle dynamics on the pilot.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Canfield, Stephen
1999-01-01
This work will demonstrate the integration of sensor and system dynamic data and their appropriate models using an optimal filter to create a robust, adaptable, easily reconfigurable state (motion) estimation system. This state estimation system will clearly show the application of fundamental modeling and filtering techniques. These techniques are presented at a general, first principles level, that can easily be adapted to specific applications. An example of such an application is demonstrated through the development of an integrated GPS/INS navigation system. This system acquires both global position data and inertial body data, to provide optimal estimates of current position and attitude states. The optimal states are estimated using a Kalman filter. The state estimation system will include appropriate error models for the measurement hardware. The results of this work will lead to the development of a "black-box" state estimation system that supplies current motion information (position and attitude states) that can be used to carry out guidance and control strategies. This black-box state estimation system is developed independent of the vehicle dynamics and therefore is directly applicable to a variety of vehicles. Issues in system modeling and application of Kalman filtering techniques are investigated and presented. These issues include linearized models of equations of state, models of the measurement sensors, and appropriate application and parameter setting (tuning) of the Kalman filter. The general model and subsequent algorithm is developed in Matlab for numerical testing. The results of this system are demonstrated through application to data from the X-33 Michael's 9A8 mission and are presented in plots and simple animations.
Sakaguchi, Yutaka; Takano, Mitsuo
2004-09-01
This article proposes an adaptive action-selection method for a model-free reinforcement learning system, based on the concept of the 'reliability of internal prediction/estimation'. This concept is realized using an internal variable, called the Reliability Index (RI), which estimates the accuracy of the internal estimator. We define this index for a value function of a temporal difference learning system and substitute it for the temperature parameter of the Boltzmann action-selection rule. Accordingly, the weight of exploratory actions adaptively changes depending on the uncertainty of the prediction. We use this idea for tabular and weighted-sum type value functions. Moreover, we use the RI to adjust the learning coefficient in addition to the temperature parameter, meaning that the reliability becomes a general basis for meta-learning. Numerical experiments were performed to examine the behavior of the proposed method. The RI-based Q-learning system demonstrated its features when the adaptive learning coefficient and large RI-discount rate (which indicate how the RI values of future states are reflected in the RI value of the current state) were introduced. Statistical tests confirmed that the algorithm spent more time exploring in the initial phase of learning, but accelerated learning from the midpoint of learning. It is also shown that the proposed method does not work well with the actor-critic models. The limitations of the proposed method and its relationship to relevant research are discussed. PMID:15312837
Design of optimal second-order state estimators
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Joshi, Suresh M.
1991-01-01
The present consideration of the design of online computation-saving second-order state estimators for second-order vector-matrix differential systems proposes a class of such estimators which is proven to possess guaranteed convergence. A class of optimal second-order estimators is then obtained, and the conditions required for optimality are identified. The estimator proposed offers high performance in conjunction with online computation reductions sufficiently great to allow the estimation of the large number of state variables associated with control of large, flexible space structures represented by high-dimensional second-order systems.
Error estimation and adaptive order nodal method for solving multidimensional transport problems
Zamonsky, O.M.; Gho, C.J.; Azmy, Y.Y.
1998-01-01
The authors propose a modification of the Arbitrarily High Order Transport Nodal method whereby they solve each node and each direction using different expansion order. With this feature and a previously proposed a posteriori error estimator they develop an adaptive order scheme to automatically improve the accuracy of the solution of the transport equation. They implemented the modified nodal method, the error estimator and the adaptive order scheme into a discrete-ordinates code for solving monoenergetic, fixed source, isotropic scattering problems in two-dimensional Cartesian geometry. They solve two test problems with large homogeneous regions to test the adaptive order scheme. The results show that using the adaptive process the storage requirements are reduced while preserving the accuracy of the results.
Mode estimation and adaptive feedforward control for stabilization of a flexible gun tube
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vandegrift, Mark W.; DiRenzo, Michael T.
1998-07-01
In this paper we describe an approach for designing a pointing and stabilization system for an unbalanced, flexible gun. Our approach is based upon classical control techniques as well as system identification and adaptive feedforward techniques. Adaptive algorithms identify the flexible modes of the system and estimate the dynamics unbalance. This information is used to update the control law in order to improve the stabilization accuracy of the system.
Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Junsheng, Ha; Akhtar, Rulia; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Kari, Fatimah Binti
2015-02-01
This paper estimates Malaysian farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) for a planned adaptation programme for addressing climate issues in the Malaysian agricultural sector. We used the contingent valuation method (CVM) for a monetary valuation of farmers' preferences for a planned adaptation programme by ascertaining the value attached to address climatic issues in the Malaysian agricultural sector. Structured questionnaires were distributed among the sampled farmers. The study found that 74 % of respondents were willing to pay for a planned adaptation programme and that several socioeconomic and motivation factors have greater influence on their WTP. This paper clearly specifies the steps needed for all institutional bodies to better address issues in climate change. The outcomes of this paper will support policy makers to better design an efficient adaptation framework for adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change. PMID:25632900
A model of cerebellar computations for dynamical state estimation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Paulin, M. G.; Hoffman, L. F.; Assad, C.
2001-01-01
The cerebellum is a neural structure that is essential for agility in vertebrate movements. Its contribution to motor control appears to be due to a fundamental role in dynamical state estimation, which also underlies its role in various non-motor tasks. Single spikes in vestibular sensory neurons carry information about head state. We show how computations for optimal dynamical state estimation may be accomplished when signals are encoded in spikes. This provides a novel way to design dynamical state estimators, and a novel way to interpret the structure and function of the cerebellum.
Risk, resources and state-dependent adaptive behavioural syndromes
Luttbeg, Barney; Sih, Andrew
2010-01-01
Many animals exhibit behavioural syndromes—consistent individual differences in behaviour across two or more contexts or situations. Here, we present adaptive, state-dependent mathematical models for analysing issues about behavioural syndromes. We find that asset protection (where individuals with more ‘assets’ tend be more cautious) and starvation avoidance, two state-dependent mechanisms, can explain short-term behavioural consistency, but not long-term stable behavioural types (BTs). These negative-feedback mechanisms tend to produce convergence in state and behaviour over time. In contrast, a positive-feedback mechanism, state-dependent safety (where individuals with higher energy reserves, size, condition or vigour are better at coping with predators), can explain stable differences in personality over the long term. The relative importance of negative- and positive-feedback mechanisms in governing behavioural consistency depends on environmental conditions (predation risk and resource availability). Behavioural syndromes emerge more readily in conditions of intermediate ecological favourability (e.g. medium risk and medium resources, or high risk and resources, or low risk and resources). Under these conditions, individuals with higher initial state maintain a tendency to be bolder than individuals that start with low initial state; i.e. later BT is determined by state during an early ‘developmental window’. In contrast, when conditions are highly favourable (low risk, high resources) or highly unfavourable (high risk, low resources), individuals converge to be all relatively bold or all relatively cautious, respectively. In those circumstances, initial differences in BT are not maintained over the long term, and there is no early developmental window where initial state governs later BT. The exact range of ecological conditions favouring behavioural syndromes depends also on the strength of state-dependent safety. PMID:21078650
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dat, Tran Huy; Takeda, Kazuya; Itakura, Fumitada
We present a multichannel speech enhancement method based on MAP speech spectral magnitude estimation using a generalized gamma model of speech prior distribution, where the model parameters are adapted from actual noisy speech in a frame-by-frame manner. The utilization of a more general prior distribution with its online adaptive estimation is shown to be effective for speech spectral estimation in noisy environments. Furthermore, the multi-channel information in terms of cross-channel statistics are shown to be useful to better adapt the prior distribution parameters to the actual observation, resulting in better performance of speech enhancement algorithm. We tested the proposed algorithm in an in-car speech database and obtained significant improvements of the speech recognition performance, particularly under non-stationary noise conditions such as music, air-conditioner and open window.
Li, Xiaofan; Zhao, Yubin; Zhang, Sha; Fan, Xiaopeng
2016-01-01
Particle filters (PFs) are widely used for nonlinear signal processing in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). However, the measurement uncertainty makes the WSN observations unreliable to the actual case and also degrades the estimation accuracy of the PFs. In addition to the algorithm design, few works focus on improving the likelihood calculation method, since it can be pre-assumed by a given distribution model. In this paper, we propose a novel PF method, which is based on a new likelihood fusion method for WSNs and can further improve the estimation performance. We firstly use a dynamic Gaussian model to describe the nonparametric features of the measurement uncertainty. Then, we propose a likelihood adaptation method that employs the prior information and a belief factor to reduce the measurement noise. The optimal belief factor is attained by deriving the minimum Kullback-Leibler divergence. The likelihood adaptation method can be integrated into any PFs, and we use our method to develop three versions of adaptive PFs for a target tracking system using wireless sensor network. The simulation and experimental results demonstrate that our likelihood adaptation method has greatly improved the estimation performance of PFs in a high noise environment. In addition, the adaptive PFs are highly adaptable to the environment without imposing computational complexity. PMID:27249002
Li, Xiaofan; Zhao, Yubin; Zhang, Sha; Fan, Xiaopeng
2016-01-01
Particle filters (PFs) are widely used for nonlinear signal processing in wireless sensor networks (WSNs). However, the measurement uncertainty makes the WSN observations unreliable to the actual case and also degrades the estimation accuracy of the PFs. In addition to the algorithm design, few works focus on improving the likelihood calculation method, since it can be pre-assumed by a given distribution model. In this paper, we propose a novel PF method, which is based on a new likelihood fusion method for WSNs and can further improve the estimation performance. We firstly use a dynamic Gaussian model to describe the nonparametric features of the measurement uncertainty. Then, we propose a likelihood adaptation method that employs the prior information and a belief factor to reduce the measurement noise. The optimal belief factor is attained by deriving the minimum Kullback–Leibler divergence. The likelihood adaptation method can be integrated into any PFs, and we use our method to develop three versions of adaptive PFs for a target tracking system using wireless sensor network. The simulation and experimental results demonstrate that our likelihood adaptation method has greatly improved the estimation performance of PFs in a high noise environment. In addition, the adaptive PFs are highly adaptable to the environment without imposing computational complexity. PMID:27249002
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dai, Haifeng; Zhu, Letao; Zhu, Jiangong; Wei, Xuezhe; Sun, Zechang
2015-10-01
The accurate monitoring of battery cell temperature is indispensible to the design of battery thermal management system. To obtain the internal temperature of a battery cell online, an adaptive temperature estimation method based on Kalman filtering and an equivalent time-variant electrical network thermal (EENT) model is proposed. The EENT model uses electrical components to simulate the battery thermodynamics, and the model parameters are obtained with a least square algorithm. With a discrete state-space description of the EENT model, a Kalman filtering (KF) based internal temperature estimator is developed. Moreover, considering the possible time-varying external heat exchange coefficient, a joint Kalman filtering (JKF) based estimator is designed to simultaneously estimate the internal temperature and the external thermal resistance. Several experiments using the hard-cased LiFePO4 cells with embedded temperature sensors have been conducted to validate the proposed method. Validation results show that, the EENT model expresses the battery thermodynamics well, the KF based temperature estimator tracks the real central temperature accurately even with a poor initialization, and the JKF based estimator can simultaneously estimate both central temperature and external thermal resistance precisely. The maximum estimation errors of the KF- and JKF-based estimators are less than 1.8 °C and 1 °C respectively.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Heng
2000-10-01
In this thesis, an a-posteriori error estimator is presented and employed for solving viscous incompressible flow problems. In an effort to detect local flow features, such as vortices and separation, and to resolve flow details precisely, a velocity angle error estimator e theta which is based on the spatial derivative of velocity direction fields is designed and constructed. The a-posteriori error estimator corresponds to the antisymmetric part of the deformation-rate-tensor, and it is sensitive to the second derivative of the velocity angle field. Rationality discussions reveal that the velocity angle error estimator is a curvature error estimator, and its value reflects the accuracy of streamline curves. It is also found that the velocity angle error estimator contains the nonlinear convective term of the Navier-Stokes equations, and it identifies and computes the direction difference when the convective acceleration direction and the flow velocity direction have a disparity. Through benchmarking computed variables with the analytic solution of Kovasznay flow or the finest grid of cavity flow, it is demonstrated that the velocity angle error estimator has a better performance than the strain error estimator. The benchmarking work also shows that the computed profile obtained by using etheta can achieve the best matching outcome with the true theta field, and that it is asymptotic to the true theta variation field, with a promise of fewer unknowns. Unstructured grids are adapted by employing local cell division as well as unrefinement of transition cells. Using element class and node class can efficiently construct a hierarchical data structure which provides cell and node inter-reference at each adaptive level. Employing element pointers and node pointers can dynamically maintain the connection of adjacent elements and adjacent nodes, and thus avoids time-consuming search processes. The adaptive scheme is applied to viscous incompressible flow at different
Dynamic State Estimation Utilizing High Performance Computing Methods
Schneider, Kevin P.; Huang, Zhenyu; Yang, Bo; Hauer, Matthew L.; Nieplocha, Jaroslaw
2009-03-18
The state estimation tools which are currently deployed in power system control rooms are based on a quasi-steady-state assumption. As a result, the suite of operational tools that rely on state estimation results as inputs do not have dynamic information available and their accuracy is compromised. This paper presents an overview of the Kalman Filtering process and then focuses on the implementation of the predication component on multiple processors.
State estimation for autopilot control of small unmanned aerial vehicles in windy conditions
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Poorman, David Paul
The use of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) both in the military and civil realms is growing. This is largely due to the proliferation of inexpensive sensors and the increase in capability of small computers that has stemmed from the personal electronic device market. Methods for performing accurate state estimation for large scale aircraft have been well known and understood for decades, which usually involve a complex array of expensive high accuracy sensors. Performing accurate state estimation for small unmanned aircraft is a newer area of study and often involves adapting known state estimation methods to small UAVs. State estimation for small UAVs can be more difficult than state estimation for larger UAVs due to small UAVs employing limited sensor suites due to cost, and the fact that small UAVs are more susceptible to wind than large aircraft. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the ability of existing methods of state estimation for small UAVs to accurately capture the states of the aircraft that are necessary for autopilot control of the aircraft in a Dryden wind field. The research begins by showing which aircraft states are necessary for autopilot control in Dryden wind. Then two state estimation methods that employ only accelerometer, gyro, and GPS measurements are introduced. The first method uses assumptions on aircraft motion to directly solve for attitude information and smooth GPS data, while the second method integrates sensor data to propagate estimates between GPS measurements and then corrects those estimates with GPS information. The performance of both methods is analyzed with and without Dryden wind, in straight and level flight, in a coordinated turn, and in a wings level ascent. It is shown that in zero wind, the first method produces significant steady state attitude errors in both a coordinated turn and in a wings level ascent. In Dryden wind, it produces large noise on the estimates for its attitude states, and has a non
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Moore, F. C.; Lobell, D. B.
2013-12-01
Agriculture is one of the economic sectors most exposed to climate change and estimating the sensitivity of food production to these changes is critical for determining the severity of climate change impacts and for informing both adaptation and mitigation policy. While climate change might have adverse effects in many areas, it has long been recognized that farmers have a suite of adaptation options at their disposal including, inter alia, changing planting date, varieties, crops, or the mix and quantity of inputs applied. These adaptations may significantly reduce the adverse impacts of climate change but the potential effectiveness of these options and the speed with which farmers will adopt them remain uncertain. We estimate the sensitivity of crop yields and farm profits in western Europe to climate change with and without the adoption of on-farm adaptations. We use cross-sectional variation across farms to define the long-run response function that includes adaptation and inter-annual variation within farms to define the short-run response function without adaptation. The difference between these can be interpreted as the potential for adaptation. We find that future warming will have a large adverse impact on wheat and barley yields and that adaptation will only be able to mitigate a small fraction of this. Maize, oilseed and sugarbeet yields are more modestly affected and adaptation is more effective for these crops. Farm profits could increase slightly under moderate amounts of warming if adaptations are adopted but will decline in the absence of adaptation. A decomposition of variance gives the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts. We find that in most cases uncertainty over future adaptation pathways (whether farmers will or will not adopt beneficial adaptations) is the most important source of uncertainty in projecting the effect of temperature changes on crop yields and farm profits. This
Nonlinear State Estimation and Modeling of a Helicopter UAV
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Barczyk, Martin
Experimentally-validated nonlinear flight control of a helicopter UAV has two necessary conditions: an estimate of the vehicle’s states from noisy multirate output measurements, and a nonlinear dynamics model with minimum complexity, physically controllable inputs and experimentally identified parameter values. This thesis addresses both these objectives for the Applied Nonlinear Controls Lab (ANCL)'s helicopter UAV project. A magnetometer-plus-GPS aided Inertial Navigation System (INS) for outdoor flight as well as an Attitude and Heading Reference System (AHRS) for indoor testing are designed, implemented and experimentally validated employing an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), using a novel calibration technique for the magnetometer aiding sensor added to remove the limitations of an earlier GPS-only aiding design. Next the recently-developed nonlinear observer design methodology of invariant observers is adapted to the aided INS and AHRS examples, employing a rotation matrix representation for the state manifold to obtain designs amenable to global stability analysis, obtaining a direct nonlinear design for gains of the AHRS observer, modifying the previously-proposed Invariant EKF systematic method for computing gains, and culminating in simulation and experimental validation of the observers. Lastly a nonlinear control-oriented model of the helicopter UAV is derived from first principles, using a rigid-body dynamics formulation augmented with models of the on-board subsystems: main rotor forces and blade flapping dynamics, the Bell-Hiller system and flybar flapping dynamics, tail rotor forces, tail gyro unit, engine and rotor speed, servo operation, fuselage drag, and tail stabilizer forces. The parameter values in the resulting models are identified experimentally. Using these the model is further simplified to be tractable for model-based control design.
Power system state estimation for a spacecraft power system
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Berry, F. C.; Benitez, N. L.; Cox, M. D.
1990-01-01
An application of the maximum likelihood state estimator to a space-based power system is presented. The state estimator uses current and voltage measurements to generate estimates of node voltages for an electrical power distribution system for the Space Shuttle. Preliminary results on the effect of noisy measurements on estimated parameters are reported. The software used in generating these results is part of an overall package being developed at Louisiana Tech University. Intended applications of this package include the analysis of power systems and real-time parallel processing on the Space Shuttle.
State estimation for networked systems with randomly occurring quantisations
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
He, Xiao; Wang, Zidong; Ji, Y. D.; Zhou, D. H.
2013-07-01
In this article, the state estimation problem is investigated for a class of discrete-time networked systems with randomly occurring quantisations. Logarithmic quantisers with different quantisation laws are considered and a Bernoulli distributed stochastic sequence is utilised to determine which quantiser is used at a certain time instant. After converting the quantisation effects into sector-bounded parameter uncertainties, a sufficient condition ensuring the existence of desirable estimators is proposed by using Lyapunov function approach, and parameters of the desired estimator are further obtained. Simulation is carried out on a networked three-tank system in order to illustrate the applicability of the proposed state estimation technique.
Distributed Dynamic State Estimation with Extended Kalman Filter
Du, Pengwei; Huang, Zhenyu; Sun, Yannan; Diao, Ruisheng; Kalsi, Karanjit; Anderson, Kevin K.; Li, Yulan; Lee, Barry
2011-08-04
Increasing complexity associated with large-scale renewable resources and novel smart-grid technologies necessitates real-time monitoring and control. Our previous work applied the extended Kalman filter (EKF) with the use of phasor measurement data (PMU) for dynamic state estimation. However, high computation complexity creates significant challenges for real-time applications. In this paper, the problem of distributed dynamic state estimation is investigated. One domain decomposition method is proposed to utilize decentralized computing resources. The performance of distributed dynamic state estimation is tested on a 16-machine, 68-bus test system.
Estimation of the covariance matrix of macroscopic quantum states
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ruppert, László; Usenko, Vladyslav C.; Filip, Radim
2016-05-01
For systems analogous to a linear harmonic oscillator, the simplest way to characterize the state is by a covariance matrix containing the symmetrically ordered moments of operators analogous to position and momentum. We show that using Stokes-like detectors without direct access to either position or momentum, the estimation of the covariance matrix of a macroscopic signal is still possible using interference with a classical noisy and low-intensity reference. Such a detection technique will allow one to estimate macroscopic quantum states of electromagnetic radiation without a coherent high-intensity local oscillator. It can be directly applied to estimate the covariance matrix of macroscopically bright squeezed states of light.
Quasi-static shape estimation and control of adaptive truss structures
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kuwao, Fumihiro; Chen, Gun-Shing; Wada, Ben K.
1991-01-01
Methods for estimating the deformation of adaptive truss structures are proposed which employ internal displacement sensors to measure changes in the length of selected truss members. Based on the measured data from the instrumented truss member, the total truss deformation pattern can be estimated through direct interpolation. To verify the validity of the methods presented here, numerical simulations are carried out for simple plane trusses, a beam truss, and a tetrahedral truss.
Adaptive algorithm for cloud cover estimation from all-sky images over the sea
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Krinitskiy, M. A.; Sinitsyn, A. V.
2016-05-01
A new algorithm for cloud cover estimation has been formulated and developed based on the synthetic control index, called the grayness rate index, and an additional algorithm step of adaptive filtering of the Mie scattering contribution. A setup for automated cloud cover estimation has been designed, assembled, and tested under field conditions. The results shows a significant advantage of the new algorithm over currently commonly used procedures.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bo, Yizhou; Shifa, Naima
2013-09-01
An estimator for finding the abundance of a rare, clustered and mobile population has been introduced. This model is based on adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) to identify the location of the population and negative binomial distribution to estimate the total in each site. To identify the location of the population we consider both sampling with replacement (WR) and sampling without replacement (WOR). Some mathematical properties of the model are also developed.
Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for Batch Estimation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Frisbee, Joe
2015-01-01
State estimation techniques effectively provide mean state estimates. However, the theoretical state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques often suffer from a lack of confidence in their ability to describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. By a reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted batch least squares algorithm, it is possible to directly arrive at an empirical state error covariance matrix. The proposed empirical state error covariance matrix will contain the effect of all error sources, known or not. This empirical error covariance matrix may be calculated as a side computation for each unique batch solution. Results based on the proposed technique will be presented for a simple, two observer and measurement error only problem.
A self-adaptive genetic algorithm to estimate JA model parameters considering minor loops
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lu, Hai-liang; Wen, Xi-shan; Lan, Lei; An, Yun-zhu; Li, Xiao-ping
2015-01-01
A self-adaptive genetic algorithm for estimating Jiles-Atherton (JA) magnetic hysteresis model parameters is presented. The fitness function is established based on the distances between equidistant key points of normalized hysteresis loops. Linearity function and logarithm function are both adopted to code the five parameters of JA model. Roulette wheel selection is used and the selection pressure is adjusted adaptively by deducting a proportional which depends on current generation common value. The Crossover operator is established by combining arithmetic crossover and multipoint crossover. Nonuniform mutation is improved by adjusting the mutation ratio adaptively. The algorithm is used to estimate the parameters of one kind of silicon-steel sheet's hysteresis loops, and the results are in good agreement with published data.
The Use of Unidimensional Item Parameter Estimates of Multidimensional Items in Adaptive Testing.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Ackerman, Terry A.
The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of using multidimensional items in a computer adaptive test (CAT) setting which assumes a unidimensional item response theory (IRT) framework. Previous research has suggested that the composite of multidimensional abilities being estimated by a unidimensional IRT model is not constant…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xia, Xiang-Gen; Wang, Genyuan; Chen, Victor C.
2001-03-01
This paper first reviews some basic properties of the discrete chirp-Fourier transform and then present an adaptive chirp- Fourier transform, a generalization of the amplitude and phase estimation of sinusoids (APES) algorithm proposed by Li and Stoica for sinusoidal signals. We finally applied it to the ISAR imaging of maneuvering targets.
Contributions to Adaptive Educational Hypermedia Systems via On-Line Learning Style Estimation
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Botsios, Sotiris; Georgiou, Demetrius; Safouris, Nikolaos
2008-01-01
In order to establish an online diagnostic system for Learning Style Estimation that contributes to the adaptation of learning objects, we propose an easily applicable expert system founded on Bayesian Networks. The proposed system makes use of Learning Style theories and associated diagnostic techniques, simultaneously avoiding certain error…
Automated mechanical ventilation: adapting decision making to different disease states.
Lozano-Zahonero, S; Gottlieb, D; Haberthür, C; Guttmann, J; Möller, K
2011-03-01
The purpose of the present study is to introduce a novel methodology for adapting and upgrading decision-making strategies concerning mechanical ventilation with respect to different disease states into our fuzzy-based expert system, AUTOPILOT-BT. The special features are: (1) Extraction of clinical knowledge in analogy to the daily routine. (2) An automated process to obtain the required information and to create fuzzy sets. (3) The controller employs the derived fuzzy rules to achieve the desired ventilation status. For demonstration this study focuses exclusively on the control of arterial CO(2) partial pressure (p(a)CO(2)). Clinical knowledge from 61 anesthesiologists was acquired using a questionnaire from which different disease-specific fuzzy sets were generated to control p(a)CO(2). For both, patients with healthy lung and with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) the fuzzy sets show different shapes. The fuzzy set "normal", i.e., "target p(a)CO(2) area", ranges from 35 to 39 mmHg for healthy lungs and from 39 to 43 mmHg for ARDS lungs. With the new fuzzy sets our AUTOPILOT-BT reaches the target p(a)CO(2) within maximal three consecutive changes of ventilator settings. Thus, clinical knowledge can be extended, updated, and the resulting mechanical ventilation therapies can be individually adapted, analyzed, and evaluated. PMID:21069471
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Beyon, Jeffrey Y.; Koch, Grady J.
2006-01-01
The signal processing aspect of a 2-m wavelength coherent Doppler lidar system under development at NASA Langley Research Center in Virginia is investigated in this paper. The lidar system is named VALIDAR (validation lidar) and its signal processing program estimates and displays various wind parameters in real-time as data acquisition occurs. The goal is to improve the quality of the current estimates such as power, Doppler shift, wind speed, and wind direction, especially in low signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) regime. A novel Nonlinear Adaptive Doppler Shift Estimation Technique (NADSET) is developed on such behalf and its performance is analyzed using the wind data acquired over a long period of time by VALIDAR. The quality of Doppler shift and power estimations by conventional Fourier-transform-based spectrum estimation methods deteriorates rapidly as SNR decreases. NADSET compensates such deterioration in the quality of wind parameter estimates by adaptively utilizing the statistics of Doppler shift estimate in a strong SNR range and identifying sporadic range bins where good Doppler shift estimates are found. The authenticity of NADSET is established by comparing the trend of wind parameters with and without NADSET applied to the long-period lidar return data.
New Estimates of Private Sector Unionism in the United States.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Freeman, Richard B.; Medoff, James L.
1979-01-01
The study presents new estimates of two measures of unionism in the United States, the percentage of private sector workers covered by union agreements, and the percentage who are union members. These figures are compared with each other and with previous estimates, showing a decline in private sector unionism. (MF)
Mehta, Cyrus; Liu, Lingyun
2016-02-10
Over the past 25 years, adaptive designs have gradually gained acceptance and are being used with increasing frequency in confirmatory clinical trials. Recent surveys of submissions to the regulatory agencies reveal that the most popular type of adaptation is unblinded sample size re-estimation. Concerns have nevertheless been raised that this type of adaptation is inefficient.We intend to show in our discussion that such concerns are greatly exaggerated in any practical setting and that the advantages of adaptive sample size re-estimation usually outweigh any minor loss of efficiency. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26757953
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alvey, Brendan; Zare, Alina; Cook, Matthew; Ho, Dominic K. C.
2016-05-01
The adaptive coherence estimator (ACE) estimates the squared cosine of the angle between a known target vector and a sample vector in a transformed coordinate space. The space is transformed according to an estimation of the background statistics, which directly effects the performance of the statistic as a target detector. In this paper, the ACE detection statistic is used to detect buried explosive hazards with data from a Wideband Electromagnetic Induction (WEMI) sensor. Target signatures are based on a dictionary defined using a Discrete Spectrum of Relaxation Frequencies (DSRF) model. Results are summarized as a receiver operator curve (ROC) and compared to other leading methods.
F-8C adaptive flight control extensions. [for maximum likelihood estimation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Stein, G.; Hartmann, G. L.
1977-01-01
An adaptive concept which combines gain-scheduled control laws with explicit maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) identification to provide the scheduling values is described. The MLE algorithm was improved by incorporating attitude data, estimating gust statistics for setting filter gains, and improving parameter tracking during changing flight conditions. A lateral MLE algorithm was designed to improve true air speed and angle of attack estimates during lateral maneuvers. Relationships between the pitch axis sensors inherent in the MLE design were examined and used for sensor failure detection. Design details and simulation performance are presented for each of the three areas investigated.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cofaru, Corneliu; Philips, Wilfried; Van Paepegem, Wim
2011-09-01
Digital image processing methods represent a viable and well acknowledged alternative to strain gauges and interferometric techniques for determining full-field displacements and strains in materials under stress. This paper presents an image adaptive technique for dense motion and strain estimation using high-resolution speckle images that show the analyzed material in its original and deformed states. The algorithm starts by dividing the speckle image showing the original state into irregular cells taking into consideration both spatial and gradient image information present. Subsequently the Newton-Raphson digital image correlation technique is applied to calculate the corresponding motion for each cell. Adaptive spatial regularization in the form of the Geman- McClure robust spatial estimator is employed to increase the spatial consistency of the motion components of a cell with respect to the components of neighbouring cells. To obtain the final strain information, local least-squares fitting using a linear displacement model is performed on the horizontal and vertical displacement fields. To evaluate the presented image partitioning and strain estimation techniques two numerical and two real experiments are employed. The numerical experiments simulate the deformation of a specimen with constant strain across the surface as well as small rigid-body rotations present while real experiments consist specimens that undergo uniaxial stress. The results indicate very good accuracy of the recovered strains as well as better rotation insensitivity compared to classical techniques.
Kwon, Oh-Sang; Knill, David C
2013-03-12
Because of uncertainty and noise, the brain should use accurate internal models of the statistics of objects in scenes to interpret sensory signals. Moreover, the brain should adapt its internal models to the statistics within local stimulus contexts. Consider the problem of hitting a baseball. The impoverished nature of the visual information available makes it imperative that batters use knowledge of the temporal statistics and history of previous pitches to accurately estimate pitch speed. Using a laboratory analog of hitting a baseball, we tested the hypothesis that the brain uses adaptive internal models of the statistics of object speeds to plan hand movements to intercept moving objects. We fit Bayesian observer models to subjects' performance to estimate the statistical environments in which subjects' performance would be ideal and compared the estimated statistics with the true statistics of stimuli in an experiment. A first experiment showed that subjects accurately estimated and used the variance of object speeds in a stimulus set to time hitting behavior but also showed serial biases that are suboptimal for stimuli that were uncorrelated over time. A second experiment showed that the strength of the serial biases depended on the temporal correlations within a stimulus set, even when the biases were estimated from uncorrelated stimulus pairs subsampled from the larger set. Taken together, the results show that subjects adapted their internal models of the variance and covariance of object speeds within a stimulus set to plan interceptive movements but retained a bias to positive correlations. PMID:23440185
Estimating undersupply of nursing home beds in states.
Swan, J H; Harrington, C
1986-01-01
This examination of nursing home bed supply estimates undersupply in each of the states for the purpose of identifying the states with the greatest undersupply of beds. New data on state nursing home bed supply for the period 1979-1982 are used. The study employs selected independent variables in two different types of analyses to estimate bed supply for each state. Where a state is found to have a bed shortage, state public policymakers may wish to employ policies that differ from those suitable for states with an adequate supply of beds. Because of limitations in the data, issues of oversupply and of the extent of undersupply could not be examined. PMID:3519534
LACIE large area acreage estimation. [United States of America
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Chhikara, R. S.; Feiveson, A. H. (Principal Investigator)
1979-01-01
A sample wheat acreage for a large area is obtained by multiplying its small grains acreage estimate as computed by the classification and mensuration subsystem by the best available ratio of wheat to small grains acreages obtained from historical data. In the United States, as in other countries with detailed historical data, an additional level of aggregation was required because sample allocation was made at the substratum level. The essential features of the estimation procedure for LACIE countries are included along with procedures for estimating wheat acreage in the United States.
Estimation of HIV Incidence in the United States
Hall, H. Irene; Song, Ruiguang; Rhodes, Philip; Prejean, Joseph; An, Qian; Lee, Lisa M.; Karon, John; Brookmeyer, Ron; Kaplan, Edward H.; McKenna, Matthew T.; Janssen, Robert S.
2010-01-01
Context HIV incidence in the United States has not been directly measured. New assays that differentiate recent versus long-standing HIV infections allow improved estimation of HIV incidence. Objective To estimate HIV incidence in the United States. Design Remnant diagnostic serum specimens from patients diagnosed with HIV during 2006 in 22 states were tested with the BED HIV-1 capture enzyme immunoassay to classify infections as recent or long-standing. Information was reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention through June 2007. HIV incidence in the 22 states during 2006 was estimated using a statistical approach with adjustment for testing frequency and extrapolated to the U.S. Results were corroborated with back-calculation of HIV incidence for 1977–2006 based on HIV diagnoses from 40 states and on AIDS incidence from 50 states and the District of Columbia. Setting Data from 22 states were extrapolated to the U.S. Patients Persons newly diagnosed with HIV (age ≥ 13 years). Main outcome measure Estimated HIV incidence. Results An estimated 39,400 persons were diagnosed with HIV in 2006 in the 22 states. Of 6,864 diagnostic specimens tested using the BED assay, 2,133 (31%) were classified as recent infections. Based on extrapolations from these data, the estimated number of new infections for the U.S. in 2006 was 56,300 (95% confidence interval [CI] 48,200, 64,500); the estimated incidence rate was 22.8 per 100,000 population (95% CI 19.5, 26.1). Forty-five percent of infections were among blacks and 53% among men who have sex with men. The back-calculation (n=1.230 million HIV/AIDS cases reported by the end of 2006) yielded an estimate of 55,400 (95% CI 52,700, 58,100) new infections per year for 2003–2006, and indicated that HIV incidence increased in the mid-1990s, then slightly declined after 1999 and has been stable thereafter. Conclusions The estimates are the first direct estimate of HIV incidence in the United States using laboratory
A Simplified Estimation of Latent State--Trait Parameters
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Hagemann, Dirk; Meyerhoff, David
2008-01-01
The latent state-trait (LST) theory is an extension of the classical test theory that allows one to decompose a test score into a true trait, a true state residual, and an error component. For practical applications, the variances of these latent variables may be estimated with standard methods of structural equation modeling (SEM). These…
Development of the One-Sided Nonlinear Adaptive Doppler Shift Estimation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Beyon, Jeffrey Y.; Koch, Grady J.; Singh, Upendra N.; Kavaya, Michael J.; Serror, Judith A.
2009-01-01
The new development of a one-sided nonlinear adaptive shift estimation technique (NADSET) is introduced. The background of the algorithm and a brief overview of NADSET are presented. The new technique is applied to the wind parameter estimates from a 2-micron wavelength coherent Doppler lidar system called VALIDAR located in NASA Langley Research Center in Virginia. The new technique enhances wind parameters such as Doppler shift and power estimates in low Signal-To-Noise-Ratio (SNR) regimes using the estimates in high SNR regimes as the algorithm scans the range bins from low to high altitude. The original NADSET utilizes the statistics in both the lower and the higher range bins to refine the wind parameter estimates in between. The results of the two different approaches of NADSET are compared.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhong, Fuli; Li, Hui; Zhong, Shouming; Zhong, Qishui; Yin, Chun
2015-07-01
A state of charge (SOC) estimation approach based on an adaptive sliding mode observer (SMO) and a fractional order equivalent circuit model (FOECM) for lithium-ion batteries is proposed in this paper. In order to design the adaptive sliding mode observer (SMO) for the SOC estimation, the state equations based on a FOECM of battery are derived. A new self-adjusting strategy for the observer gains is presented to adjust the observer in the estimating process, which helps to reduce chattering and convergence time. Furthermore, a continuous and smooth function called hyperbolic tangent function is applied to balance the chattering affection and the disturbance. At last, a battery simulation model is established to test the SOC estimation performance of the designed SMOs, and the results show the proposed approach is feasible and effective.
An Adaptive Objective Function for Evaporation Duct Estimations from Radar Sea Echo
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Jin-Peng; Wu, Zhen-Sen; Wang, Bo
2011-03-01
In the process of atmospheric refractivity estimation from radar sea echo, the objective function that calculates the match between the predicted and observed field plays an important role. To reduce the effect of noises from long ranges on the objective function, we present a selection method of final ranges for inversion. An adaptive objective function is introduced with a linear distance weight added to the least squares error function (LSEF). Through an evaporation duct height (EDH) retrieving process, the performance of the adaptive objective function is evaluated. The result illustrates that the present method performs better than the LSEF in EDH inversions from clutters with different clutter-to-noise ratios.
Analytic Steady-State Accuracy of a Spacecraft Attitude Estimator
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Markley, F. Landis
2000-01-01
This paper extends Farrenkopf's analysis of a single-axis spacecraft attitude estimator using gyro and angle sensor data to include the angle output white noise of a rate-integrating gyro. Analytic expressions are derived for the steady-state pre-update and post-update angle and drift bias variances and for the state update equations. It is shown that only part of the state update resulting from the angle sensor measurement is propagated to future times.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Brüggemann, Matthias; Kays, Rüdiger; Springer, Paul; Erdler, Oliver
2015-03-01
In this paper we present a combination of block-matching and differential motion field estimation. We initialize the motion field using a predictive hierarchical block-matching approach. This vector field is refined by a pixel-recursive differential motion estimation method. We integrate image warping and adaptive filter kernels into the Horn and Schunck differential optical flow estimation approach to break the block structure of the initial correspondence vector fields and compute motion field updates to fulfill the smoothness constraint inside motion boundaries. The influence of occlusion areas is reduced by integrating an in-the-loop occlusion detection and adjusting the adaptive filter weights in the iteration process. We integrate the combined estimation into a hierarchical multi-scale framework. The refined motion on the current scale is upscaled and used as prediction for block-matching motion estimation on the next scale. With the proposed system we are able to combine the advantages of block-matching and differential motion estimation and achieve a dense vector field with floating point precision even for large motion.
2013-01-01
Background Elective patient admission and assignment planning is an important task of the strategic and operational management of a hospital and early on became a central topic of clinical operations research. The management of hospital beds is an important subtask. Various approaches have been proposed, involving the computation of efficient assignments with regard to the patients’ condition, the necessity of the treatment, and the patients’ preferences. However, these approaches are mostly based on static, unadaptable estimates of the length of stay and, thus, do not take into account the uncertainty of the patient’s recovery. Furthermore, the effect of aggregated bed capacities have not been investigated in this context. Computer supported bed management, combining an adaptable length of stay estimation with the treatment of shared resources (aggregated bed capacities) has not yet been sufficiently investigated. The aim of our work is: 1) to define a cost function for patient admission taking into account adaptable length of stay estimations and aggregated resources, 2) to define a mathematical program formally modeling the assignment problem and an architecture for decision support, 3) to investigate four algorithmic methodologies addressing the assignment problem and one base-line approach, and 4) to evaluate these methodologies w.r.t. cost outcome, performance, and dismissal ratio. Methods The expected free ward capacity is calculated based on individual length of stay estimates, introducing Bernoulli distributed random variables for the ward occupation states and approximating the probability densities. The assignment problem is represented as a binary integer program. Four strategies for solving the problem are applied and compared: an exact approach, using the mixed integer programming solver SCIP; and three heuristic strategies, namely the longest expected processing time, the shortest expected processing time, and random choice. A baseline approach
Quantum phase estimation using path-symmetric entangled states
Lee, Su-Yong; Lee, Chang-Woo; Lee, Jaehak; Nha, Hyunchul
2016-01-01
We study the sensitivity of phase estimation using a generic class of path-symmetric entangled states |φ〉|0〉 + |0〉|φ〉, where an arbitrary state |φ〉 occupies one of two modes in quantum superposition. With this generalization, we identify the fundamental limit of phase estimation under energy constraint that is characterized by the photon statistics of the component state |φ〉. We show that quantum Cramer-Rao bound (QCRB) can be indefinitely lowered with super-Poissonianity of the state |φ〉. For possible measurement schemes, we demonstrate that a full photon-counting employing the path-symmetric entangled states achieves the QCRB over the entire range [0, 2π] of unknown phase shift ϕ whereas a parity measurement does so in a certain confined range of ϕ. By introducing a component state of the form , we particularly show that an arbitrarily small QCRB can be achieved even with a finite energy in an ideal situation. This component state also provides the most robust resource against photon loss among considered entangled states over the range of the average input energy Nav > 1. Finally we propose experimental schemes to generate these path-symmetric entangled states for phase estimation. PMID:27457267
Quantum phase estimation using path-symmetric entangled states
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lee, Su-Yong; Lee, Chang-Woo; Lee, Jaehak; Nha, Hyunchul
2016-07-01
We study the sensitivity of phase estimation using a generic class of path-symmetric entangled states |φ>|0> + |0>|φ>, where an arbitrary state |φ> occupies one of two modes in quantum superposition. With this generalization, we identify the fundamental limit of phase estimation under energy constraint that is characterized by the photon statistics of the component state |φ>. We show that quantum Cramer-Rao bound (QCRB) can be indefinitely lowered with super-Poissonianity of the state |φ>. For possible measurement schemes, we demonstrate that a full photon-counting employing the path-symmetric entangled states achieves the QCRB over the entire range [0, 2π] of unknown phase shift ϕ whereas a parity measurement does so in a certain confined range of ϕ. By introducing a component state of the form , we particularly show that an arbitrarily small QCRB can be achieved even with a finite energy in an ideal situation. This component state also provides the most robust resource against photon loss among considered entangled states over the range of the average input energy Nav > 1. Finally we propose experimental schemes to generate these path-symmetric entangled states for phase estimation.
Quantum phase estimation using path-symmetric entangled states.
Lee, Su-Yong; Lee, Chang-Woo; Lee, Jaehak; Nha, Hyunchul
2016-01-01
We study the sensitivity of phase estimation using a generic class of path-symmetric entangled states |φ〉|0〉 + |0〉|φ〉, where an arbitrary state |φ〉 occupies one of two modes in quantum superposition. With this generalization, we identify the fundamental limit of phase estimation under energy constraint that is characterized by the photon statistics of the component state |φ〉. We show that quantum Cramer-Rao bound (QCRB) can be indefinitely lowered with super-Poissonianity of the state |φ〉. For possible measurement schemes, we demonstrate that a full photon-counting employing the path-symmetric entangled states achieves the QCRB over the entire range [0, 2π] of unknown phase shift ϕ whereas a parity measurement does so in a certain confined range of ϕ. By introducing a component state of the form , we particularly show that an arbitrarily small QCRB can be achieved even with a finite energy in an ideal situation. This component state also provides the most robust resource against photon loss among considered entangled states over the range of the average input energy Nav > 1. Finally we propose experimental schemes to generate these path-symmetric entangled states for phase estimation. PMID:27457267
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Yang, Xiangdong; Poggio, John C.; Glasnapp, Douglas R.
2006-01-01
The effects of five ability estimators, that is, maximum likelihood estimator, weighted likelihood estimator, maximum a posteriori, expected a posteriori, and Owen's sequential estimator, on the performances of the item response theory-based adaptive classification procedure on multiple categories were studied via simulations. The following…
Estimating annualized earthquake losses for the conterminous United States
Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Bausch, Douglas; Chen, Rui; Bouabid, Jawhar; Seligson, Hope
2015-01-01
We make use of the most recent National Seismic Hazard Maps (the years 2008 and 2014 cycles), updated census data on population, and economic exposure estimates of general building stock to quantify annualized earthquake loss (AEL) for the conterminous United States. The AEL analyses were performed using the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Hazus software, which facilitated a systematic comparison of the influence of the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Maps in terms of annualized loss estimates in different parts of the country. The losses from an individual earthquake could easily exceed many tens of billions of dollars, and the long-term averaged value of losses from all earthquakes within the conterminous U.S. has been estimated to be a few billion dollars per year. This study estimated nationwide losses to be approximately $4.5 billion per year (in 2012$), roughly 80% of which can be attributed to the States of California, Oregon and Washington. We document the change in estimated AELs arising solely from the change in the assumed hazard map. The change from the 2008 map to the 2014 map results in a 10 to 20% reduction in AELs for the highly seismic States of the Western United States, whereas the reduction is even more significant for Central and Eastern United States.
Estimation of State Transition Probabilities: A Neural Network Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Saito, Hiroshi; Takiyama, Ken; Okada, Masato
2015-12-01
Humans and animals can predict future states on the basis of acquired knowledge. This prediction of the state transition is important for choosing the best action, and the prediction is only possible if the state transition probability has already been learned. However, how our brains learn the state transition probability is unknown. Here, we propose a simple algorithm for estimating the state transition probability by utilizing the state prediction error. We analytically and numerically confirmed that our algorithm is able to learn the probability completely with an appropriate learning rate. Furthermore, our learning rule reproduced experimentally reported psychometric functions and neural activities in the lateral intraparietal area in a decision-making task. Thus, our algorithm might describe the manner in which our brains learn state transition probabilities and predict future states.
Rankings & Estimates: Rankings of the States 2010 and Estimates of School Statistics 2011
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
National Education Association Research Department, 2010
2010-01-01
The data presented in this combined report--"Rankings & Estimates"--provide facts about the extent to which local, state, and national governments commit resources to public education. As one might expect in a nation as diverse as the United States--with respect to economics, geography, and politics--the level of commitment to education varies on…
Rankings & Estimates: Rankings of the States 2009 and Estimates of School Statistics 2010
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
National Education Association Research Department, 2009
2009-01-01
The data presented in this combined report--"Rankings & Estimates"--provide facts about the extent to which local, state, and national governments commit resources to public education. As one might expect in a nation as diverse as the United States--with respect to economics, geography, and politics--the level of commitment to education varies on…
Rankings & Estimates: Rankings of the States 2008 and Estimates of School Statistics 2009
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
National Education Association Research Department, 2008
2008-01-01
The data presented in this combined report--"Rankings & Estimates"--provide facts about the extent to which local, state, and national governments commit resources to public education. As one might expect in a nation as diverse as the United States--with respect to economics, geography, and politics--the level of commitment to education varies on…
Rankings & Estimates: Rankings of the States 2004 and Estimates of School Statistics 2005
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
National Education Association Research Department, 2005
2005-01-01
The data presented in this combined report--"Rankings & Estimates"--provide facts about the extent to which local, state, and national governments commit resources to public education. As one might expect in a nation as diverse as the United States--with respect to economics, geography, and politics--the level of commitment to education varies on…
Photoconversion from the light-adapted to the dark-adapted state of bacteriorhodopsin
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Kouyama, T.; Bogomolni, R. A.; Stoeckenius, W.
1985-01-01
The dark and light adaptation of the bR(trans)570 (bacteriorhodopsin) and bR(cis)550 isomers is analyzed. The equilibrium between the two bR isomers in light-adapted purple membrane films is studied in terms of the wavelength of actinic light and hydration levels. Absorption spectra observed after light adaptations with red and yellow light reveal that red light is less efficient in converting bR(cis)550 to bR(trans)570 than yellow light and the amount of bR(cis)550 in a light-adapted sample increases with decreasing hydration. The rate constants of dark and light adaptation are evaluated; the rate constant of dark adaptation is independent of the hydration level and the rate constant of light adaptation increases with hydration. The acceleration of a dark adaptation by red light is investigated; the dependence of the accelerated dark adaptation on the light intensity is discussed. The action spectrum of light adaptation in a purple membrane suspension is compared with the absorption spectrum of bR(cis)550; correlation between the spectra reveals that cis-to-transconversion is due to excitation of bR(cis)550 and the mechanism of cis-to-trans conversion in film is not affected by humidity levels. It is noted that the light-driven trans-to-cis conversion is a single photon process. The branching at M410 from the all-trans into the 13-cis photocycle is examined.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xue, Ming; Wang, Jiang; Jia, Chenhui; Yu, Haitao; Deng, Bin; Wei, Xile; Che, Yanqiu
2013-03-01
In this paper, we proposed a new approach to estimate unknown parameters and topology of a neuronal network based on the adaptive synchronization control scheme. A virtual neuronal network is constructed as an observer to track the membrane potential of the corresponding neurons in the original network. When they achieve synchronization, the unknown parameters and topology of the original network are obtained. The method is applied to estimate the real-time status of the connection in the feedforward network and the neurotransmitter release probability of unreliable synapses is obtained by statistic computation. Numerical simulations are also performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive controller. The obtained results may have important implications in system identification in neural science.
Heat-Related Mortality and Adaptation to Heat in the United States
Peng, Roger D.; Bell, Michelle L.; Dominici, Francesca
2014-01-01
Background: In a changing climate, increasing temperatures are anticipated to have profound health impacts. These impacts could be mitigated if individuals and communities adapt to changing exposures; however, little is known about the extent to which the population may be adapting. Objective: We investigated the hypothesis that if adaptation is occurring, then heat-related mortality would be decreasing over time. Methods: We used a national database of daily weather, air pollution, and age-stratified mortality rates for 105 U.S. cities (covering 106 million people) during the summers of 1987–2005. Time-varying coefficient regression models and Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate city-specific, regional, and national temporal trends in heat-related mortality and to identify factors that might explain variation across cities. Results: On average across cities, the number of deaths (per 1,000 deaths) attributable to each 10°F increase in same-day temperature decreased from 51 [95% posterior interval (PI): 42, 61] in 1987 to 19 (95% PI: 12, 27) in 2005. This decline was largest among those ≥ 75 years of age, in northern regions, and in cities with cooler climates. Although central air conditioning (AC) prevalence has increased, we did not find statistically significant evidence of larger temporal declines among cities with larger increases in AC prevalence. Conclusions: The population has become more resilient to heat over time. Yet even with this increased resilience, substantial risks of heat-related mortality remain. Based on 2005 estimates, an increase in average temperatures by 5°F (central climate projection) would lead to an additional 1,907 deaths per summer across all cities. Citation: Bobb JF, Peng RD, Bell ML, Dominici F. 2014. Heat-related mortality and adaptation to heat in the United States. Environ Health Perspect 122:811–816; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307392 PMID:24780880
Adaptation strategies for high order discontinuous Galerkin methods based on Tau-estimation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kompenhans, Moritz; Rubio, Gonzalo; Ferrer, Esteban; Valero, Eusebio
2016-02-01
In this paper three p-adaptation strategies based on the minimization of the truncation error are presented for high order discontinuous Galerkin methods. The truncation error is approximated by means of a τ-estimation procedure and enables the identification of mesh regions that require adaptation. Three adaptation strategies are developed and termed a posteriori, quasi-a priori and quasi-a priori corrected. All strategies require fine solutions, which are obtained by enriching the polynomial order, but while the former needs time converged solutions, the last two rely on non-converged solutions, which lead to faster computations. In addition, the high order method permits the spatial decoupling for the estimated errors and enables anisotropic p-adaptation. These strategies are verified and compared in terms of accuracy and computational cost for the Euler and the compressible Navier-Stokes equations. It is shown that the two quasi-a priori methods achieve a significant reduction in computational cost when compared to a uniform polynomial enrichment. Namely, for a viscous boundary layer flow, we obtain a speedup of 6.6 and 7.6 for the quasi-a priori and quasi-a priori corrected approaches, respectively.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Linares, Irving; Mersereau, Russell M.; Smith, Mark J. T.
1994-01-01
Two representative sample images of Band 4 of the Landsat Thematic Mapper are compressed with the JPEG algorithm at 8:1, 16:1 and 24:1 Compression Ratios for experimental browsing purposes. We then apply the Optimal PSNR Estimated Spectra Adaptive Postfiltering (ESAP) algorithm to reduce the DCT blocking distortion. ESAP reduces the blocking distortion while preserving most of the image's edge information by adaptively postfiltering the decoded image using the block's spectral information already obtainable from each block's DCT coefficients. The algorithm iteratively applied a one dimensional log-sigmoid weighting function to the separable interpolated local block estimated spectra of the decoded image until it converges to the optimal PSNR with respect to the original using a 2-D steepest ascent search. Convergence is obtained in a few iterations for integer parameters. The optimal logsig parameters are transmitted to the decoder as a negligible byte of overhead data. A unique maxima is guaranteed due to the 2-D asymptotic exponential overshoot shape of the surface generated by the algorithm. ESAP is based on a DFT analysis of the DCT basis functions. It is implemented with pixel-by-pixel spatially adaptive separable FIR postfilters. PSNR objective improvements between 0.4 to 0.8 dB are shown together with their corresponding optimal PSNR adaptive postfiltered images.
Quantum state tomography and fidelity estimation via Phaselift
Lu, Yiping; Liu, Huan; Zhao, Qing
2015-09-15
Experiments of multi-photon entanglement have been performed by several groups. Obviously, an increase on the photon number for fidelity estimation and quantum state tomography causes a dramatic increase in the elements of the positive operator valued measures (POVMs), which results in a great consumption of time in measurements. In practice, we wish to obtain a good estimation of fidelity and quantum states through as few measurements as possible for multi-photon entanglement. Phaselift provides such a chance to estimate fidelity for entangling states based on less data. In this paper, we would like to show how the Phaselift works for six qubits in comparison to the data given by Pan’s group, i.e., we use a fraction of the data as input to estimate the rest of the data through the obtained density matrix, and thus goes beyond the simple fidelity analysis. The fidelity bound is also provided for general Schrödinger Cat state. Based on the fidelity bound, we propose an optimal measurement approach which could both reduce the copies and keep the fidelity bound gap small. The results demonstrate that the Phaselift can help decrease the measured elements of POVMs for six qubits. Our conclusion is based on the prior knowledge that a pure state is the target state prepared by experiments.
Adaptive feedforward of estimated ripple improves the closed loop system performance significantly
Kwon, S.; Regan, A.; Wang, Y.M.; Rohlev, T.
1998-12-31
The Low Energy Demonstration Accelerator (LEDA) being constructed at Los Alamos National Laboratory will serve as the prototype for the low energy section of Acceleration Production of Tritium (APT) accelerator. This paper addresses the problem of LLRF control system for LEDA. The authors propose an estimator of the ripple and its time derivative and a control law which is based on PID control and adaptive feedforward of estimated ripple. The control law reduces the effect of the deterministic cathode ripple that is due to high voltage power supply and achieves tracking of desired set points.
[Polynesian adaptation of the Mini-Mental State Examination].
Wong, H; Larre, P; Ghawché, F
2015-04-01
This study aimed to develop and validate a Polynesian version of the MMSE (Mini-Mental State Examination). For this study a sample (n=112) of healthy people were evaluated with the French version of the consensual version of the MMSE, to target and modify some inadequate items for French Polynesia. Subsequently, a second sample (n=112) with the same characteristics (age, educational level) as well as 46 healthy people aged 60 years and more were evaluated with the adaptive version of the MMSE (P-MMSE). This version was then applied to 17 participants with Alzheimer disease. The control subjects were selected according to their age and educational level. The variables gender and evaluation sites were checked. An analysis of the results showed a significant dissociation between the two versions as well as a meaningful effect on global performance of the variables age (r=-0.45) and educational level (r=-0.25). Cut-off scores taking into consideration these variables were defined. The sensitivity and specificity values of the new cut-off scores were much greater than 0.5. Various global cut-off scores were also analyzed. A general cut-off score (≤23) was defined and yielded 82 % sensitivity and 75 % specificity in detecting Alzheimer disease. PMID:25575608
Rescue of endemic states in interconnected networks with adaptive coupling.
Vazquez, F; Serrano, M Ángeles; Miguel, M San
2016-01-01
We study the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model of epidemic spreading on two layers of networks interconnected by adaptive links, which are rewired at random to avoid contacts between infected and susceptible nodes at the interlayer. We find that the rewiring reduces the effective connectivity for the transmission of the disease between layers, and may even totally decouple the networks. Weak endemic states, in which the epidemics spreads when the two layers are interconnected but not in each layer separately, show a transition from the endemic to the healthy phase when the rewiring overcomes a threshold value that depends on the infection rate, the strength of the coupling and the mean connectivity of the networks. In the strong endemic scenario, in which the epidemics is able to spread on each separate network -and therefore on the interconnected system- the prevalence in each layer decreases when increasing the rewiring, arriving to single network values only in the limit of infinitely fast rewiring. We also find that rewiring amplifies finite-size effects, preventing the disease transmission between finite networks, as there is a non zero probability that the epidemics stays confined in only one network during its lifetime. PMID:27380771
Rescue of endemic states in interconnected networks with adaptive coupling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vazquez, F.; Serrano, M. Ángeles; Miguel, M. San
2016-07-01
We study the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model of epidemic spreading on two layers of networks interconnected by adaptive links, which are rewired at random to avoid contacts between infected and susceptible nodes at the interlayer. We find that the rewiring reduces the effective connectivity for the transmission of the disease between layers, and may even totally decouple the networks. Weak endemic states, in which the epidemics spreads when the two layers are interconnected but not in each layer separately, show a transition from the endemic to the healthy phase when the rewiring overcomes a threshold value that depends on the infection rate, the strength of the coupling and the mean connectivity of the networks. In the strong endemic scenario, in which the epidemics is able to spread on each separate network –and therefore on the interconnected system– the prevalence in each layer decreases when increasing the rewiring, arriving to single network values only in the limit of infinitely fast rewiring. We also find that rewiring amplifies finite-size effects, preventing the disease transmission between finite networks, as there is a non zero probability that the epidemics stays confined in only one network during its lifetime.
Rescue of endemic states in interconnected networks with adaptive coupling
Vazquez, F.; Serrano, M. Ángeles; Miguel, M. San
2016-01-01
We study the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model of epidemic spreading on two layers of networks interconnected by adaptive links, which are rewired at random to avoid contacts between infected and susceptible nodes at the interlayer. We find that the rewiring reduces the effective connectivity for the transmission of the disease between layers, and may even totally decouple the networks. Weak endemic states, in which the epidemics spreads when the two layers are interconnected but not in each layer separately, show a transition from the endemic to the healthy phase when the rewiring overcomes a threshold value that depends on the infection rate, the strength of the coupling and the mean connectivity of the networks. In the strong endemic scenario, in which the epidemics is able to spread on each separate network –and therefore on the interconnected system– the prevalence in each layer decreases when increasing the rewiring, arriving to single network values only in the limit of infinitely fast rewiring. We also find that rewiring amplifies finite-size effects, preventing the disease transmission between finite networks, as there is a non zero probability that the epidemics stays confined in only one network during its lifetime. PMID:27380771
Using State Estimation Residuals to Detect Abnormal SCADA Data
Ma, Jian; Chen, Yousu; Huang, Zhenyu; Wong, Pak C.
2010-04-30
Detection of abnormal supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data is critically important for safe and secure operation of modern power systems. In this paper, a methodology of abnormal SCADA data detection based on state estimation residuals is presented. Preceded with a brief overview of outlier detection methods and bad SCADA data detection for state estimation, the framework of the proposed methodology is described. Instead of using original SCADA measurements as the bad data sources, the residuals calculated based on the results of the state estimator are used as the input for the outlier detection algorithm. The BACON algorithm is applied to the outlier detection task. The IEEE 118-bus system is used as a test base to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The accuracy of the BACON method is compared with that of the 3-σ method for the simulated SCADA measurements and residuals.
Using State Estimation Residuals to Detect Abnormal SCADA Data
Ma, Jian; Chen, Yousu; Huang, Zhenyu; Wong, Pak C.
2010-06-14
Detection of manipulated supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data is critically important for the safe and secure operation of modern power systems. In this paper, a methodology of detecting manipulated SCADA data based on state estimation residuals is presented. A framework of the proposed methodology is described. Instead of using original SCADA measurements as the bad data sources, the residuals calculated based on the results of the state estimator are used as the input for the outlier detection process. The BACON algorithm is applied to detect outliers in the state estimation residuals. The IEEE 118-bus system is used as a test case to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The accuracy of the BACON method is compared with that of the 3-σ method for the simulated SCADA measurements and residuals.
A Testbed for Deploying Distributed State Estimation in Power Grid
Jin, Shuangshuang; Chen, Yousu; Rice, Mark J.; Liu, Yan; Gorton, Ian
2012-07-22
Abstract—With the increasing demand, scale and data information of power systems, fast distributed applications are becoming more important in power system operation and control. This paper proposes a testbed for evaluating power system distributed applications, considering data exchange among distributed areas. A high-performance computing (HPC) version of distributed state estimation is implemented and used as a distributed application example. The IEEE 118-bus system is used to deploy the parallel distributed state estimation, and the MeDICi middleware is used for data communication. The performance of the testbed demonstrates its capability to evaluate parallel distributed state estimation by leveraging the HPC paradigm. This testbed can also be applied to evaluate other distributed applications.
Multilevel Error Estimation and Adaptive h-Refinement for Cartesian Meshes with Embedded Boundaries
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Aftosmis, M. J.; Berger, M. J.; Kwak, Dochan (Technical Monitor)
2002-01-01
This paper presents the development of a mesh adaptation module for a multilevel Cartesian solver. While the module allows mesh refinement to be driven by a variety of different refinement parameters, a central feature in its design is the incorporation of a multilevel error estimator based upon direct estimates of the local truncation error using tau-extrapolation. This error indicator exploits the fact that in regions of uniform Cartesian mesh, the spatial operator is exactly the same on the fine and coarse grids, and local truncation error estimates can be constructed by evaluating the residual on the coarse grid of the restricted solution from the fine grid. A new strategy for adaptive h-refinement is also developed to prevent errors in smooth regions of the flow from being masked by shocks and other discontinuous features. For certain classes of error histograms, this strategy is optimal for achieving equidistribution of the refinement parameters on hierarchical meshes, and therefore ensures grid converged solutions will be achieved for appropriately chosen refinement parameters. The robustness and accuracy of the adaptation module is demonstrated using both simple model problems and complex three dimensional examples using meshes with from 10(exp 6), to 10(exp 7) cells.
Parameter estimation using NOON states over a relativistic quantum channel
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hosler, Dominic; Kok, Pieter
2013-11-01
We study the effect of the acceleration of the observer on a parameter estimation protocol using NOON states. An inertial observer, Alice, prepares a NOON state in Unruh modes of the quantum field, and sends it to an accelerated observer, Rob. We calculate the quantum Fisher information of the state received by Rob. We find the counterintuitive result that the single-rail encoding outperforms the dual rail. The NOON states have an optimal N for the maximum information extractable by Rob, given his acceleration. This optimal N decreases with increasing acceleration.
National intelligence estimates and the Failed State Index.
Voracek, Martin
2013-10-01
Across 177 countries around the world, the Failed State Index, a measure of state vulnerability, was reliably negatively associated with the estimates of national intelligence. Psychometric analysis of the Failed State Index, compounded of 12 social, economic, and political indicators, suggested factorial unidimensionality of this index. The observed correspondence of higher national intelligence figures to lower state vulnerability might arise through these two macro-level variables possibly being proxies of even more pervasive historical and societal background variables that affect both. PMID:24597444
State Medicaid Pharmacy Payments and Their Relation to Estimated Costs
Adams, E. Kathleen; Kreling, David H.; Gondek, Kathleen
1994-01-01
Although prescription drugs do not appear to be a primary source of recent surges in Medicaid spending, their share of Medicaid expenditures has risen despite efforts to control costs. As part of a general concern with prescription drug policy, Congress mandated a study of the adequacy of Medicaid payments to pharmacies. In this study, several data sources were used to develop 1991 estimates of average pharmacy ingredient and dispensing costs. A simulation was used to estimate the amounts States pay. Nationally, simulated payments averaged 96 percent of estimated costs overall but were lower for dispensing costs (79 percent) and higher for ingredient costs (102 percent). PMID:10137796
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Moore, F.; Burke, M.
2015-12-01
A wide range of studies using a variety of methods strongly suggest that climate change will have a negative impact on agricultural production in many areas. Farmers though should be able to learn about a changing climate and to adjust what they grow and how they grow it in order to reduce these negative impacts. However, it remains unclear how effective these private (autonomous) adaptations will be, or how quickly they will be adopted. Constraining the uncertainty on this adaptation is important for understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture. Here we review a number of empirical methods that have been proposed for understanding the rate and effectiveness of private adaptation to climate change. We compare these methods using data on agricultural yields in the United States and western Europe.
Demographic estimation methods for plants with unobservable life-states
Kery, M.; Gregg, K.B.; Schaub, M.
2005-01-01
Demographic estimation of vital parameters in plants with an unobservable dormant state is complicated, because time of death is not known. Conventional methods assume that death occurs at a particular time after a plant has last been seen aboveground but the consequences of assuming a particular duration of dormancy have never been tested. Capture-recapture methods do not make assumptions about time of death; however, problems with parameter estimability have not yet been resolved. To date, a critical comparative assessment of these methods is lacking. We analysed data from a 10 year study of Cleistes bifaria, a terrestrial orchid with frequent dormancy, and compared demographic estimates obtained by five varieties of the conventional methods, and two capture-recapture methods. All conventional methods produced spurious unity survival estimates for some years or for some states, and estimates of demographic rates sensitive to the time of death assumption. In contrast, capture-recapture methods are more parsimonious in terms of assumptions, are based on well founded theory and did not produce spurious estimates. In Cleistes, dormant episodes lasted for 1-4 years (mean 1.4, SD 0.74). The capture-recapture models estimated ramet survival rate at 0.86 (SE~ 0.01), ranging from 0.77-0.94 (SEs # 0.1) in anyone year. The average fraction dormant was estimated at 30% (SE 1.5), ranging 16 -47% (SEs # 5.1) in anyone year. Multistate capture-recapture models showed that survival rates were positively related to precipitation in the current year, but transition rates were more strongly related to precipitation in the previous than in the current year, with more ramets going dormant following dry years. Not all capture-recapture models of interest have estimable parameters; for instance, without excavating plants in years when they do not appear aboveground, it is not possible to obtain independent timespecific survival estimates for dormant plants. We introduce rigorous
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pedretti, Daniele; Fernàndez-Garcia, Daniel
2013-09-01
Particle tracking methods to simulate solute transport deal with the issue of having to reconstruct smooth concentrations from a limited number of particles. This is an error-prone process that typically leads to large fluctuations in the determined late-time behavior of breakthrough curves (BTCs). Kernel density estimators (KDE) can be used to automatically reconstruct smooth BTCs from a small number of particles. The kernel approach incorporates the uncertainty associated with subsampling a large population by equipping each particle with a probability density function. Two broad classes of KDE methods can be distinguished depending on the parametrization of this function: global and adaptive methods. This paper shows that each method is likely to estimate a specific portion of the BTCs. Although global methods offer a valid approach to estimate early-time behavior and peak of BTCs, they exhibit important fluctuations at the tails where fewer particles exist. In contrast, locally adaptive methods improve tail estimation while oversmoothing both early-time and peak concentrations. Therefore a new method is proposed combining the strength of both KDE approaches. The proposed approach is universal and only needs one parameter (α) which slightly depends on the shape of the BTCs. Results show that, for the tested cases, heavily-tailed BTCs are properly reconstructed with α ≈ 0.5 .
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yi, J.; Choi, C.
2014-12-01
Rainfall observation and forecasting using remote sensing such as RADAR(Radio Detection and Ranging) and satellite images are widely used to delineate the increased damage by rapid weather changeslike regional storm and flash flood. The flood runoff was calculated by using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, the data driven models and MAPLE(McGill Algorithm for Precipitation Nowcasting by Lagrangian Extrapolation) forecasted precipitation data as the input variables.The result of flood estimation method using neuro-fuzzy technique and RADAR forecasted precipitation data was evaluated by comparing it with the actual data.The Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy method was applied to the Chungju Reservoir basin in Korea. The six rainfall events during the flood seasons in 2010 and 2011 were used for the input data.The reservoir inflow estimation results were comparedaccording to the rainfall data used for training, checking and testing data in the model setup process. The results of the 15 models with the combination of the input variables were compared and analyzed. Using the relatively larger clustering radius and the biggest flood ever happened for training data showed the better flood estimation in this study.The model using the MAPLE forecasted precipitation data showed better result for inflow estimation in the Chungju Reservoir.
Zuo, K; Bellanger, J J; Yang, C; Shu, H; Le Bouquin Jeannés, R
2013-01-01
This paper aims at estimating causal relationships between signals to detect flow propagation in autoregressive and physiological models. The main challenge of the ongoing work is to discover whether neural activity in a given structure of the brain influences activity in another area during epileptic seizures. This question refers to the concept of effective connectivity in neuroscience, i.e. to the identification of information flows and oriented propagation graphs. Past efforts to determine effective connectivity rooted to Wiener causality definition adapted in a practical form by Granger with autoregressive models. A number of studies argue against such a linear approach when nonlinear dynamics are suspected in the relationship between signals. Consequently, nonlinear nonparametric approaches, such as transfer entropy (TE), have been introduced to overcome linear methods limitations and promoted in many studies dealing with electrophysiological signals. Until now, even though many TE estimators have been developed, further improvement can be expected. In this paper, we investigate a new strategy by introducing an adaptive kernel density estimator to improve TE estimation. PMID:24110694
Campbell, D A; Chkrebtii, O
2013-12-01
Statistical inference for biochemical models often faces a variety of characteristic challenges. In this paper we examine state and parameter estimation for the JAK-STAT intracellular signalling mechanism, which exemplifies the implementation intricacies common in many biochemical inference problems. We introduce an extension to the Generalized Smoothing approach for estimating delay differential equation models, addressing selection of complexity parameters, choice of the basis system, and appropriate optimization strategies. Motivated by the JAK-STAT system, we further extend the generalized smoothing approach to consider a nonlinear observation process with additional unknown parameters, and highlight how the approach handles unobserved states and unevenly spaced observations. The methodology developed is generally applicable to problems of estimation for differential equation models with delays, unobserved states, nonlinear observation processes, and partially observed histories. PMID:23579098
Stochastic EM algorithm for nonlinear state estimation with model uncertainties
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zia, Amin; Kirubarajan, Thiagalingam; Reilly, James P.; Shirani, Shahram
2004-01-01
In most solutions to state estimation problems like, for example, target tracking, it is generally assumed that the state evolution and measurement models are known a priori. The model parameters include process and measurement matrices or functions as well as the corresponding noise statistics. However, there are situations where the model parameters are not known a priori or are known only partially (i.e., with some uncertainty). Moreover, there are situations where the measurement is biased. In these scenarios, standard estimation algorithms like the Kalman filter and the extended Kalman Filter (EKF), which assume perfect knowledge of the model parameters, are not accurate. In this paper, the problem with uncertain model parameters is considered as a special case of maximum likelihood estimation with incomplete-data, for which a standard solution called the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm exists. In this paper a new extension to the EM algorithm is proposed to solve the more general problem of joint state estimation and model parameter identification for nonlinear systems with possibly non-Gaussian noise. In the expectation (E) step, it is shown that the best variational distribution over the state variables is the conditional posterior distribution of states given all the available measurements and inputs. Therefore, a particular type of particle filter is used to estimate and update the posterior distribution. In the maximization (M) step the nonlinear measurement process parameters are approximated using a nonlinear regression method for adjusting the parameters of a mixture of Gaussians (MofG). The proposed algorithm is used to solve a nonlinear bearing-only tracking problem similar to the one reported recently with uncertain measurement process. It is shown that the algorithm is capable of accurately tracking the state vector while identifying the unknown measurement dynamics. Simulation results show the advantages of the new technique over standard
Stochastic EM algorithm for nonlinear state estimation with model uncertainties
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zia, Amin; Kirubarajan, Thiagalingam; Reilly, James P.; Shirani, Shahram
2003-12-01
In most solutions to state estimation problems like, for example, target tracking, it is generally assumed that the state evolution and measurement models are known a priori. The model parameters include process and measurement matrices or functions as well as the corresponding noise statistics. However, there are situations where the model parameters are not known a priori or are known only partially (i.e., with some uncertainty). Moreover, there are situations where the measurement is biased. In these scenarios, standard estimation algorithms like the Kalman filter and the extended Kalman Filter (EKF), which assume perfect knowledge of the model parameters, are not accurate. In this paper, the problem with uncertain model parameters is considered as a special case of maximum likelihood estimation with incomplete-data, for which a standard solution called the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm exists. In this paper a new extension to the EM algorithm is proposed to solve the more general problem of joint state estimation and model parameter identification for nonlinear systems with possibly non-Gaussian noise. In the expectation (E) step, it is shown that the best variational distribution over the state variables is the conditional posterior distribution of states given all the available measurements and inputs. Therefore, a particular type of particle filter is used to estimate and update the posterior distribution. In the maximization (M) step the nonlinear measurement process parameters are approximated using a nonlinear regression method for adjusting the parameters of a mixture of Gaussians (MofG). The proposed algorithm is used to solve a nonlinear bearing-only tracking problem similar to the one reported recently with uncertain measurement process. It is shown that the algorithm is capable of accurately tracking the state vector while identifying the unknown measurement dynamics. Simulation results show the advantages of the new technique over standard
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hanachi, Houman; Liu, Jie; Banerjee, Avisekh; Chen, Ying
2016-05-01
Health state estimation of inaccessible components in complex systems necessitates effective state estimation techniques using the observable variables of the system. The task becomes much complicated when the system is nonlinear/non-Gaussian and it receives stochastic input. In this work, a novel sequential state estimation framework is developed based on particle filtering (PF) scheme for state estimation of general class of nonlinear dynamical systems with stochastic input. Performance of the developed framework is then validated with simulation on a Bivariate Non-stationary Growth Model (BNGM) as a benchmark. In the next step, three-year operating data of an industrial gas turbine engine (GTE) are utilized to verify the effectiveness of the developed framework. A comprehensive thermodynamic model for the GTE is therefore developed to formulate the relation of the observable parameters and the dominant degradation symptoms of the turbine, namely, loss of isentropic efficiency and increase of the mass flow. The results confirm the effectiveness of the developed framework for simultaneous estimation of multiple degradation symptoms in complex systems with noisy measured inputs.
Optimal PMU Placement Evaluation for Power System Dynamic State Estimation
Zhang, Jinghe; Welch, Greg; Bishop, Gary; Huang, Zhenyu
2010-10-10
Abstract - The synchronized phaor measurements unit (PMU), developed in the 1980s, is concidered to be one of the most important devices in the future of power systems. The recent development of PMU technology provides high-speed, precisely synchronized sensor data, which has been found to be usefule for dynamic, state estimation of power the power grid.
Fault detection in electromagnetic suspension systems with state estimation methods
Sinha, P.K.; Zhou, F.B.; Kutiyal, R.S. . Dept. of Engineering)
1993-11-01
High-speed maglev vehicles need a high level of safety that depends on the whole vehicle system's reliability. There are many ways of attaining high reliability for the system. Conventional method uses redundant hardware with majority vote logic circuits. Hardware redundancy costs more, weigh more and occupy more space than that of analytically redundant methods. Analytically redundant systems use parameter identification and state estimation methods based on the system models to detect and isolate the fault of instruments (sensors), actuator and components. In this paper the authors use the Luenberger observer to estimate three state variables of the electromagnetic suspension system: position (airgap), vehicle velocity, and vertical acceleration. These estimates are compared with the corresponding sensor outputs for fault detection. In this paper, they consider FDI of the accelerometer, the sensor which provides the ride quality.
State estimation and absolute image registration for geosynchronous satellites
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Nankervis, R.; Koch, D. W.; Sielski, H.
1980-01-01
Spacecraft state estimation and the absolute registration of Earth images acquired by cameras onboard geosynchronous satellites are described. The basic data type of the procedure consists of line and element numbers of image points called landmarks whose geodetic coordinates, relative to United States Geodetic Survey topographic maps, are known. A conventional least squares process is used to estimate navigational parameters and camera pointing biases from observed minus computed landmark line and element numbers. These estimated parameters along with orbit and attitude dynamic models are used to register images, using an automated grey level correlation technique, inside the span represented by the landmark data. In addition, the dynamic models can be employed to register images outside of the data span in a near real time mode. An important application of this mode is in support of meteorological studies where rapid data reduction is required for the rapid tracking and predicting of dynamic phenomena.
Spectral Doppler estimation utilizing 2-D spatial information and adaptive signal processing.
Ekroll, Ingvild K; Torp, Hans; Løvstakken, Lasse
2012-06-01
The trade-off between temporal and spectral resolution in conventional pulsed wave (PW) Doppler may limit duplex/triplex quality and the depiction of rapid flow events. It is therefore desirable to reduce the required observation window (OW) of the Doppler signal while preserving the frequency resolution. This work investigates how the required observation time can be reduced by adaptive spectral estimation utilizing 2-D spatial information obtained by parallel receive beamforming. Four adaptive estimation techniques were investigated, the power spectral Capon (PSC) method, the amplitude and phase estimation (APES) technique, multiple signal classification (MUSIC), and a projection-based version of the Capon technique. By averaging radially and laterally, the required covariance matrix could successfully be estimated without temporal averaging. Useful PW spectra of high resolution and contrast could be generated from ensembles corresponding to those used in color flow imaging (CFI; OW = 10). For a given OW, the frequency resolution could be increased compared with the Welch approach, in cases in which the transit time was higher or comparable to the observation time. In such cases, using short or long pulses with unfocused or focused transmit, an increase in temporal resolution of up to 4 to 6 times could be obtained in in vivo examples. It was further shown that by using adaptive signal processing, velocity spectra may be generated without high-pass filtering the Doppler signal. With the proposed approach, spectra retrospectively calculated from CFI may become useful for unfocused as well as focused imaging. This application may provide new clinical information by inspection of velocity spectra simultaneously from several spatial locations. PMID:22711413
On-Board Event-Based State Estimation for Trajectory Approaching and Tracking of a Vehicle.
Martínez-Rey, Miguel; Espinosa, Felipe; Gardel, Alfredo; Santos, Carlos
2015-01-01
For the problem of pose estimation of an autonomous vehicle using networked external sensors, the processing capacity and battery consumption of these sensors, as well as the communication channel load should be optimized. Here, we report an event-based state estimator (EBSE) consisting of an unscented Kalman filter that uses a triggering mechanism based on the estimation error covariance matrix to request measurements from the external sensors. This EBSE generates the events of the estimator module on-board the vehicle and, thus, allows the sensors to remain in stand-by mode until an event is generated. The proposed algorithm requests a measurement every time the estimation distance root mean squared error (DRMS) value, obtained from the estimator's covariance matrix, exceeds a threshold value. This triggering threshold can be adapted to the vehicle's working conditions rendering the estimator even more efficient. An example of the use of the proposed EBSE is given, where the autonomous vehicle must approach and follow a reference trajectory. By making the threshold a function of the distance to the reference location, the estimator can halve the use of the sensors with a negligible deterioration in the performance of the approaching maneuver. PMID:26102489
On-Board Event-Based State Estimation for Trajectory Approaching and Tracking of a Vehicle
Martínez-Rey, Miguel; Espinosa, Felipe; Gardel, Alfredo; Santos, Carlos
2015-01-01
For the problem of pose estimation of an autonomous vehicle using networked external sensors, the processing capacity and battery consumption of these sensors, as well as the communication channel load should be optimized. Here, we report an event-based state estimator (EBSE) consisting of an unscented Kalman filter that uses a triggering mechanism based on the estimation error covariance matrix to request measurements from the external sensors. This EBSE generates the events of the estimator module on-board the vehicle and, thus, allows the sensors to remain in stand-by mode until an event is generated. The proposed algorithm requests a measurement every time the estimation distance root mean squared error (DRMS) value, obtained from the estimator's covariance matrix, exceeds a threshold value. This triggering threshold can be adapted to the vehicle's working conditions rendering the estimator even more efficient. An example of the use of the proposed EBSE is given, where the autonomous vehicle must approach and follow a reference trajectory. By making the threshold a function of the distance to the reference location, the estimator can halve the use of the sensors with a negligible deterioration in the performance of the approaching maneuver. PMID:26102489
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shi, Lei; Wang, Z. J.
2015-08-01
Adjoint-based mesh adaptive methods are capable of distributing computational resources to areas which are important for predicting an engineering output. In this paper, we develop an adjoint-based h-adaptation approach based on the high-order correction procedure via reconstruction formulation (CPR) to minimize the output or functional error. A dual-consistent CPR formulation of hyperbolic conservation laws is developed and its dual consistency is analyzed. Super-convergent functional and error estimate for the output with the CPR method are obtained. Factors affecting the dual consistency, such as the solution point distribution, correction functions, boundary conditions and the discretization approach for the non-linear flux divergence term, are studied. The presented method is then used to perform simulations for the 2D Euler and Navier-Stokes equations with mesh adaptation driven by the adjoint-based error estimate. Several numerical examples demonstrate the ability of the presented method to dramatically reduce the computational cost comparing with uniform grid refinement.
p-adaption for compressible flow problems using a goal-based error estimator
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ekelschot, Dirk; Moxey, David; Peiro, Joaquim; Sherwin, Spencer
2014-11-01
We present an approach of applying p-adaption to compressible flow problems using a dual-weighted error estimator. This technique has been implemented in the high-order h/p spectral element library Nektar + + . The compressible solver uses a high-order discontinuous Galerkin (DG) discretization. This approach is generally considered to be expensive and that is why the introduced p-adaption technique aims for lowering the computational cost while preserving the high-order accuracy and the exponential convergence properties. The numerical fluxes between the elements are discontinuous which allows one to use a different polynomial order in each element. After identifying and localizing the sources of error, the order of approximation of the solution within the element is improved. The solution to the adjoint equations for the compressible Euler equations is used to weigh the local residual of the primal solution. This provides both the error in the target quantity, which is typically the lift or drag coefficient, and an indication on how sensitive the local solution is to the target quantity. The dual-weighted error within each element serves then as a local refinement indicator that drives the p-adaptive algorithm. The performance of this p-adaptive method is demonstrated using a test case of subsonic flow past a 3D wing geometry.
Trapping phenomenon of the parameter estimation in asymptotic quantum states
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Berrada, K.
2016-09-01
In this paper, we study in detail the behavior of the precision of the parameter estimation in open quantum systems using the quantum Fisher information (QFI). In particular, we study the sensitivity of the estimation on a two-qubit system evolving under Kossakowski-type quantum dynamical semigroups of completely positive maps. In such an environment, the precision of the estimation can even persist asymptotically for different effects of the initial parameters. We find that the QFI can be resistant to the action of the environment with respect to the initial asymptotic states, and it can persist even in the asymptotic long-time regime. In addition, our results provide further evidence that the initial pure and separable mixed states of the input state may enhance quantum metrology. These features make quantum states in this kind of environment a good candidate for the implementation of different schemes of quantum optics and information with high precision. Finally, we show that this quantity may be proposed to detect the amount of the total quantum information that the whole state contains with respect to projective measurements.
Estimation of beryllium ground state energy by Monte Carlo simulation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kabir, K. M. Ariful; Halder, Amal
2015-05-01
Quantum Monte Carlo method represent a powerful and broadly applicable computational tool for finding very accurate solution of the stationary Schrödinger equation for atoms, molecules, solids and a variety of model systems. Using variational Monte Carlo method we have calculated the ground state energy of the Beryllium atom. Our calculation are based on using a modified four parameters trial wave function which leads to good result comparing with the few parameters trial wave functions presented before. Based on random Numbers we can generate a large sample of electron locations to estimate the ground state energy of Beryllium. Our calculation gives good estimation for the ground state energy of the Beryllium atom comparing with the corresponding exact data.
Estimation of beryllium ground state energy by Monte Carlo simulation
Kabir, K. M. Ariful; Halder, Amal
2015-05-15
Quantum Monte Carlo method represent a powerful and broadly applicable computational tool for finding very accurate solution of the stationary Schrödinger equation for atoms, molecules, solids and a variety of model systems. Using variational Monte Carlo method we have calculated the ground state energy of the Beryllium atom. Our calculation are based on using a modified four parameters trial wave function which leads to good result comparing with the few parameters trial wave functions presented before. Based on random Numbers we can generate a large sample of electron locations to estimate the ground state energy of Beryllium. Our calculation gives good estimation for the ground state energy of the Beryllium atom comparing with the corresponding exact data.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Farmann, Alexander; Waag, Wladislaw; Sauer, Dirk Uwe
2015-12-01
Robust algorithms using reduced order equivalent circuit model (ECM) for an accurate and reliable estimation of battery states in various applications become more popular. In this study, a novel adaptive, self-learning heuristic algorithm for on-board impedance parameters and voltage estimation of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) in electric vehicles is introduced. The presented approach is verified using LIBs with different composition of chemistries (NMC/C, NMC/LTO, LFP/C) at different aging states. An impedance-based reduced order ECM incorporating ohmic resistance and a combination of a constant phase element and a resistance (so-called ZARC-element) is employed. Existing algorithms in vehicles are much more limited in the complexity of the ECMs. The algorithm is validated using seven day real vehicle data with high temperature variation including very low temperatures (from -20 °C to +30 °C) at different Depth-of-Discharges (DoDs). Two possibilities to approximate both ZARC-elements with finite number of RC-elements on-board are shown and the results of the voltage estimation are compared. Moreover, the current dependence of the charge-transfer resistance is considered by employing Butler-Volmer equation. Achieved results indicate that both models yield almost the same grade of accuracy.
Adaptive RBF network for parameter estimation and stable air-fuel ratio control.
Wang, Shiwei; Yu, D L
2008-01-01
In the application of variable structure control to engine air-fuel ratio, the ratio is subjected to chattering due to system uncertainty, such as unknown parameters or time varying dynamics. This paper proposes an adaptive neural network method to estimate two immeasurable physical parameters on-line and to compensate for the model uncertainty and engine time varying dynamics, so that the chattering is substantially reduced and the air-fuel ratio is regulated within the desired range of the stoichiometric value. The adaptive law of the neural network is derived using the Lyapunov method, so that the stability of the whole system and the convergence of the networks are guaranteed. Computer simulations based on a mean value engine model demonstrate the effectiveness of the technique. PMID:18166378
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Xiangwen; Xu, Yong; Pan, Ming; Ren, Fenghua
2014-04-01
A sliding-mode observer is designed to estimate the vehicle velocity with the measured vehicle acceleration, the wheel speeds and the braking torques. Based on the Burckhardt tyre model, the extended Kalman filter is designed to estimate the parameters of the Burckhardt model with the estimated vehicle velocity, the measured wheel speeds and the vehicle acceleration. According to the estimated parameters of the Burckhardt tyre model, the tyre/road friction coefficients and the optimal slip ratios are calculated. A vehicle adaptive sliding-mode control (SMC) algorithm is presented with the estimated vehicle velocity, the tyre/road friction coefficients and the optimal slip ratios. And the adjustment method of the sliding-mode gain factors is discussed. Based on the adaptive SMC algorithm, a vehicle's antilock braking system (ABS) control system model is built with the Simulink Toolbox. Under the single-road condition as well as the different road conditions, the performance of the vehicle ABS system is simulated with the vehicle velocity observer, the tyre/road friction coefficient estimator and the adaptive SMC algorithm. The results indicate that the estimated errors of the vehicle velocity and the tyre/road friction coefficients are acceptable and the vehicle ABS adaptive SMC algorithm is effective. So the proposed adaptive SMC algorithm can be used to control the vehicle ABS without the information of the vehicle velocity and the road conditions.
Optimization of an adaptive SPECT system with the scanning linear estimator
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ghanbari, Nasrin; Clarkson, Eric; Kupinski, Matthew A.; Li, Xin
2015-08-01
The adaptive single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) system studied here acquires an initial scout image to obtain preliminary information about the object. Then the configuration is adjusted by selecting the size of the pinhole and the magnification that optimize system performance on an ensemble of virtual objects generated to be consistent with the scout data. In this study the object is a lumpy background that contains a Gaussian signal with a variable width and amplitude. The virtual objects in the ensemble are imaged by all of the available configurations and the subsequent images are evaluated with the scanning linear estimator to obtain an estimate of the signal width and amplitude. The ensemble mean squared error (EMSE) on the virtual ensemble between the estimated and the true parameters serves as the performance figure of merit for selecting the optimum configuration. The results indicate that variability in the original object background, noise and signal parameters leads to a specific optimum configuration in each case. A statistical study carried out for a number of objects show that the adaptive system on average performs better than its nonadaptive counterpart.
Modulation transfer function estimation of optical lens system by adaptive neuro-fuzzy methodology
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Petković, Dalibor; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Pavlović, Nenad T.; Anuar, Nor Badrul; Kiah, Miss Laiha Mat
2014-07-01
The quantitative assessment of image quality is an important consideration in any type of imaging system. The modulation transfer function (MTF) is a graphical description of the sharpness and contrast of an imaging system or of its individual components. The MTF is also known and spatial frequency response. The MTF curve has different meanings according to the corresponding frequency. The MTF of an optical system specifies the contrast transmitted by the system as a function of image size, and is determined by the inherent optical properties of the system. In this study, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy (ANFIS) estimator is designed and adapted to estimate MTF value of the actual optical system. Neural network in ANFIS adjusts parameters of membership function in the fuzzy logic of the fuzzy inference system. The back propagation learning algorithm is used for training this network. This intelligent estimator is implemented using Matlab/Simulink and the performances are investigated. The simulation results presented in this paper show the effectiveness of the developed method.
Battery state-of-charge estimation using approximate least squares
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Unterrieder, C.; Zhang, C.; Lunglmayr, M.; Priewasser, R.; Marsili, S.; Huemer, M.
2015-03-01
In recent years, much effort has been spent to extend the runtime of battery-powered electronic applications. In order to improve the utilization of the available cell capacity, high precision estimation approaches for battery-specific parameters are needed. In this work, an approximate least squares estimation scheme is proposed for the estimation of the battery state-of-charge (SoC). The SoC is determined based on the prediction of the battery's electromotive force. The proposed approach allows for an improved re-initialization of the Coulomb counting (CC) based SoC estimation method. Experimental results for an implementation of the estimation scheme on a fuel gauge system on chip are illustrated. Implementation details and design guidelines are presented. The performance of the presented concept is evaluated for realistic operating conditions (temperature effects, aging, standby current, etc.). For the considered test case of a GSM/UMTS load current pattern of a mobile phone, the proposed method is able to re-initialize the CC-method with a high accuracy, while state-of-the-art methods fail to perform a re-initialization.
Attention control learning in the decision space using state estimation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gharaee, Zahra; Fatehi, Alireza; Mirian, Maryam S.; Nili Ahmadabadi, Majid
2016-05-01
The main goal of this paper is modelling attention while using it in efficient path planning of mobile robots. The key challenge in concurrently aiming these two goals is how to make an optimal, or near-optimal, decision in spite of time and processing power limitations, which inherently exist in a typical multi-sensor real-world robotic application. To efficiently recognise the environment under these two limitations, attention of an intelligent agent is controlled by employing the reinforcement learning framework. We propose an estimation method using estimated mixture-of-experts task and attention learning in perceptual space. An agent learns how to employ its sensory resources, and when to stop observing, by estimating its perceptual space. In this paper, static estimation of the state space in a learning task problem, which is examined in the WebotsTM simulator, is performed. Simulation results show that a robot learns how to achieve an optimal policy with a controlled cost by estimating the state space instead of continually updating sensory information.
Second-order state estimation experiments using acceleration measurements
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Belvin, W. K.
1992-01-01
The estimation of dynamic states for feedback control of structural systems using second-order differential equations and acceleration measurements is described. The formulation of the observer model, and the design of the observer gains is discussed in detail. It is shown the second-order observer is highly stable because the stability constraints on the observer gains are model independent. The limitation of the proposed observer is the need for 'nearly' collocated actuators and accelerometers. Experimental results using a control-structure interaction testbed are presented that show the second-order observer provided more stability than a Kalman filter estimator without decreasing closed-loop performance.
Epidemic processes over adaptive state-dependent networks
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ogura, Masaki; Preciado, Victor M.
2016-06-01
In this paper we study the dynamics of epidemic processes taking place in adaptive networks of arbitrary topology. We focus our study on the adaptive susceptible-infected-susceptible (ASIS) model, where healthy individuals are allowed to temporarily cut edges connecting them to infected nodes in order to prevent the spread of the infection. In this paper we derive a closed-form expression for a lower bound on the epidemic threshold of the ASIS model in arbitrary networks with heterogeneous node and edge dynamics. For networks with homogeneous node and edge dynamics, we show that the resulting lower bound is proportional to the epidemic threshold of the standard SIS model over static networks, with a proportionality constant that depends on the adaptation rates. Furthermore, based on our results, we propose an efficient algorithm to optimally tune the adaptation rates in order to eradicate epidemic outbreaks in arbitrary networks. We confirm the tightness of the proposed lower bounds with several numerical simulations and compare our optimal adaptation rates with popular centrality measures.
Epidemic processes over adaptive state-dependent networks.
Ogura, Masaki; Preciado, Victor M
2016-06-01
In this paper we study the dynamics of epidemic processes taking place in adaptive networks of arbitrary topology. We focus our study on the adaptive susceptible-infected-susceptible (ASIS) model, where healthy individuals are allowed to temporarily cut edges connecting them to infected nodes in order to prevent the spread of the infection. In this paper we derive a closed-form expression for a lower bound on the epidemic threshold of the ASIS model in arbitrary networks with heterogeneous node and edge dynamics. For networks with homogeneous node and edge dynamics, we show that the resulting lower bound is proportional to the epidemic threshold of the standard SIS model over static networks, with a proportionality constant that depends on the adaptation rates. Furthermore, based on our results, we propose an efficient algorithm to optimally tune the adaptation rates in order to eradicate epidemic outbreaks in arbitrary networks. We confirm the tightness of the proposed lower bounds with several numerical simulations and compare our optimal adaptation rates with popular centrality measures. PMID:27415289
An Adaptive Nonlinear Aircraft Maneuvering Envelope Estimation Approach for Online Applications
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Schuet, Stefan R.; Lombaerts, Thomas Jan; Acosta, Diana; Wheeler, Kevin; Kaneshige, John
2014-01-01
A nonlinear aircraft model is presented and used to develop an overall unified robust and adaptive approach to passive trim and maneuverability envelope estimation with uncertainty quantification. The concept of time scale separation makes this method suitable for the online characterization of altered safe maneuvering limitations after impairment. The results can be used to provide pilot feedback and/or be combined with flight planning, trajectory generation, and guidance algorithms to help maintain safe aircraft operations in both nominal and off-nominal scenarios.
The State of Literacy in America: Estimates at the Local, State, and National Levels.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
National Inst. for Literacy, Washington, DC.
This document presents synthesized estimates of the rates of level 1 literacy by congressional district in the 50 states and District of Columbia. The estimates are extrapolations of the National Adult Literacy Survey (NALS) that were based on the findings of approximately 26,000 interviews. The document begins with an introduction containing the…
Parameter estimation of qubit states with unknown phase parameter
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Suzuki, Jun
2015-02-01
We discuss a problem of parameter estimation for quantum two-level system, qubit system, in presence of unknown phase parameter. We analyze trade-off relations for mean square errors (MSEs) when estimating relevant parameters with separable measurements based on known precision bounds; the symmetric logarithmic derivative (SLD) Cramér-Rao (CR) bound and Hayashi-Gill-Massar (HGM) bound. We investigate the optimal measurement which attains the HGM bound and discuss its properties. We show that the HGM bound for relevant parameters can be attained asymptotically by using some fraction of given n quantum states to estimate the phase parameter. We also discuss the Holevo bound which can be attained asymptotically by a collective measurement.
Least-bias state estimation with incomplete unbiased measurements
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Řeháček, Jaroslav; Hradil, Zdeněk; Teo, Yong Siah; Sánchez-Soto, Luis L.; Ng, Hui Khoon; Chai, Jing Hao; Englert, Berthold-Georg
2015-11-01
Measuring incomplete sets of mutually unbiased bases constitutes a sensible approach to the tomography of high-dimensional quantum systems. The unbiased nature of these bases optimizes the uncertainty hypervolume. However, imposing unbiasedness on the probabilities for the unmeasured bases does not generally yield the estimator with the largest von Neumann entropy, a popular figure of merit in this context. Furthermore, this imposition typically leads to mock density matrices that are not even positive definite. This provides a strong argument against perfunctory applications of linear estimation strategies. We propose to use instead the physical state estimators that maximize the Shannon entropy of the unmeasured outcomes, which quantifies our lack of knowledge fittingly and gives physically meaningful statistical predictions.
Estimates of millimeter wave attenuation for 18 United States cities
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Allen, K. C.; Liebe, H. J.; Rush, C. M.
1983-05-01
Brief discussions of three mechanisms that attenuate millimeter waves in the atmosphere are presented: rain attenuation, clear air absorption, and atmospheric multipath. Propagation models were combined with meteorological statistics to obtain estimates of average year attenuation distributions for 18 cities in the United States. The estimates are presented in such a way to elucidate the restrictions on system parameters required for reliable operation, i.e. frequency, path length for terrestrial paths, and path elevation angle for earth-satellite paths. The variation imposed by the diverse climates within the United States is demonstrated. Generally, in regions that have humid climates, millimeter wave systems perform less favorably than in areas where arid or semi-arid conditions prevail.
Adaptive UAV Attitude Estimation Employing Unscented Kalman Filter, FOAM and Low-Cost MEMS Sensors
de Marina, Héctor García; Espinosa, Felipe; Santos, Carlos
2012-01-01
Navigation employing low cost MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) sensors in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) is an uprising challenge. One important part of this navigation is the right estimation of the attitude angles. Most of the existent algorithms handle the sensor readings in a fixed way, leading to large errors in different mission stages like take-off aerobatic maneuvers. This paper presents an adaptive method to estimate these angles using off-the-shelf components. This paper introduces an Attitude Heading Reference System (AHRS) based on the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) using the Fast Optimal Attitude Matrix (FOAM) algorithm as the observation model. The performance of the method is assessed through simulations. Moreover, field experiments are presented using a real fixed-wing UAV. The proposed low cost solution, implemented in a microcontroller, shows a satisfactory real time performance. PMID:23012559
Adaptive UAV attitude estimation employing unscented Kalman Filter, FOAM and low-cost MEMS sensors.
de Marina, Héctor García; Espinosa, Felipe; Santos, Carlos
2012-01-01
Navigation employing low cost MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) sensors in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) is an uprising challenge. One important part of this navigation is the right estimation of the attitude angles. Most of the existent algorithms handle the sensor readings in a fixed way, leading to large errors in different mission stages like take-off aerobatic maneuvers. This paper presents an adaptive method to estimate these angles using off-the-shelf components. This paper introduces an Attitude Heading Reference System (AHRS) based on the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) using the Fast Optimal Attitude Matrix (FOAM) algorithm as the observation model. The performance of the method is assessed through simulations. Moreover, field experiments are presented using a real fixed-wing UAV. The proposed low cost solution, implemented in a microcontroller, shows a satisfactory real time performance. PMID:23012559
Adaptive external torque estimation by means of tracking a Lyapunov function
Schaub, H.; Junkins, J.L.; Robinett, R.D.
1996-03-01
A real-time method is presented to adoptively estimate three-dimensional unmodeled external torques acting on a spacecraft. This is accomplished by forcing the tracking error dynamics to follow the Lyapunov function underlying the feedback control law. For the case where the external torque is constant, the tracking error dynamics are shown to converge asypmtotically. The methodology applies not only to the control law used in this paper, but can also be applied to most Lyapunov derived feedback control laws. The adaptive external torque estimation is very robust in the presence of measurement noise, since a numerical integration is used instead of a numerical differentiation. Spacecraft modeling errors, such as in the inertia matrix, are also compensated for by this method. Several examples illustrate the practical significance of these ideas.
Hensen, Ulf; Grubmüller, Helmut; Lange, Oliver F
2009-07-01
The quasiharmonic approximation is the most widely used estimate for the configurational entropy of macromolecules from configurational ensembles generated from atomistic simulations. This method, however, rests on two assumptions that severely limit its applicability, (i) that a principal component analysis yields sufficiently uncorrelated modes and (ii) that configurational densities can be well approximated by Gaussian functions. In this paper we introduce a nonparametric density estimation method which rests on adaptive anisotropic kernels. It is shown that this method provides accurate configurational entropies for up to 45 dimensions thus improving on the quasiharmonic approximation. When embedded in the minimally coupled subspace framework, large macromolecules of biological interest become accessible, as demonstrated for the 67-residue coldshock protein. PMID:19658735
Motion Estimation Based on Mutual Information and Adaptive Multi-Scale Thresholding.
Xu, Rui; Taubman, David; Naman, Aous Thabit
2016-03-01
This paper proposes a new method of calculating a matching metric for motion estimation. The proposed method splits the information in the source images into multiple scale and orientation subbands, reduces the subband values to a binary representation via an adaptive thresholding algorithm, and uses mutual information to model the similarity of corresponding square windows in each image. A moving window strategy is applied to recover a dense estimated motion field whose properties are explored. The proposed matching metric is a sum of mutual information scores across space, scale, and orientation. This facilitates the exploitation of information diversity in the source images. Experimental comparisons are performed amongst several related approaches, revealing that the proposed matching metric is better able to exploit information diversity, generating more accurate motion fields. PMID:26742132
Performance bounds on micro-Doppler estimation and adaptive waveform design using OFDM signals
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sen, Satyabrata; Barhen, Jacob; Glover, Charles W.
2014-05-01
We analyze the performance of a wideband orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) signal in estimating the micro-Doppler frequency of a target having multiple rotating scatterers (e.g., rotor blades of a helicopter, propellers of a submarine). The presence of rotating scatterers introduces Doppler frequency modulation in the received signal by generating sidebands about the transmitted frequencies. This is called the micro-Doppler effects. The use of a frequency-diverse OFDM signal in this context enables us to independently analyze the micro-Doppler characteristics with respect to a set of orthogonal subcarrier frequencies. Therefore, to characterize the accuracy of micro-Doppler frequency estimation, we compute the Craḿer-Rao Bound (CRB) on the angular-velocity estimate of the target while considering the scatterer responses as deterministic but unknown nuisance parameters. Additionally, to improve the accuracy of the estimation procedure, we formulate and solve an optimization problem by minimizing the CRB on the angular-velocity estimate with respect to the transmitting OFDM spectral coefficients. We present several numerical examples to demonstrate the CRB variations at different values of the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and the number of OFDM subcarriers. The CRB values not only decrease with the increase in the SNR values, but also reduce as we increase the number of subcarriers implying the significance of frequency-diverse OFDM waveforms. The improvement in estimation accuracy due to the adaptive waveform design is also numerically analyzed. Interestingly, we find that the relative decrease in the CRBs on the angular-velocity estimate is more pronounced for larger number of OFDM subcarriers.
Performance Bounds on Micro-Doppler Estimation and Adaptive Waveform Design Using OFDM Signals
Sen, Satyabrata; Barhen, Jacob; Glover, Charles Wayne
2014-01-01
We analyze the performance of a wideband orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) signal in estimating the micro-Doppler frequency of a target having multiple rotating scatterers (e.g., rotor blades of a helicopter, propellers of a submarine). The presence of rotating scatterers introduces Doppler frequency modulation in the received signal by generating sidebands about the transmitted frequencies. This is called the micro-Doppler effects. The use of a frequency-diverse OFDM signal in this context enables us to independently analyze the micro-Doppler characteristics with respect to a set of orthogonal subcarrier frequencies. Therefore, to characterize the accuracy of micro-Doppler frequency estimation, we compute the Cram er-Rao Bound (CRB) on the angular-velocity estimate of the target while considering the scatterer responses as deterministic but unknown nuisance parameters. Additionally, to improve the accuracy of the estimation procedure, we formulate and solve an optimization problem by minimizing the CRB on the angular-velocity estimate with respect to the transmitting OFDM spectral coefficients. We present several numerical examples to demonstrate the CRB variations at different values of the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and the number of OFDM subcarriers. The CRB values not only decrease with the increase in the SNR values, but also reduce as we increase the number of subcarriers implying the significance of frequency-diverse OFDM waveforms. The improvement in estimation accuracy due to the adaptive waveform design is also numerically analyzed. Interestingly, we find that the relative decrease in the CRBs on the angular-velocity estimate is more pronounced for larger number of OFDM subcarriers.
Improving our legacy: Incorporation of adaptive management into state wildlife action plans
Fontaine, J.J.
2011-01-01
The loss of biodiversity is a mounting concern, but despite numerous attempts there are few large scale conservation efforts that have proven successful in reversing current declines. Given the challenge of biodiversity conservation, there is a need to develop strategic conservation plans that address species declines even with the inherent uncertainty in managing multiple species in complex environments. In 2002, the State Wildlife Grant program was initiated to fulfill this need, and while not explicitly outlined by Congress follows the fundamental premise of adaptive management, 'Learning by doing'. When action is necessary, but basic biological information and an understanding of appropriate management strategies are lacking, adaptive management enables managers to be proactive in spite of uncertainty. However, regardless of the strengths of adaptive management, the development of an effective adaptive management framework is challenging. In a review of 53 State Wildlife Action Plans, I found a keen awareness by planners that adaptive management was an effective method for addressing biodiversity conservation, but the development and incorporation of explicit adaptive management approaches within each plan remained elusive. Only ???25% of the plans included a framework for how adaptive management would be implemented at the project level within their state. There was, however, considerable support across plans for further development and implementation of adaptive management. By furthering the incorporation of adaptive management principles in conservation plans and explicitly outlining the decision making process, states will be poised to meet the pending challenges to biodiversity conservation. ?? 2010 .
Support vector machines for nuclear reactor state estimation
Zavaljevski, N.; Gross, K. C.
2000-02-14
Validation of nuclear power reactor signals is often performed by comparing signal prototypes with the actual reactor signals. The signal prototypes are often computed based on empirical data. The implementation of an estimation algorithm which can make predictions on limited data is an important issue. A new machine learning algorithm called support vector machines (SVMS) recently developed by Vladimir Vapnik and his coworkers enables a high level of generalization with finite high-dimensional data. The improved generalization in comparison with standard methods like neural networks is due mainly to the following characteristics of the method. The input data space is transformed into a high-dimensional feature space using a kernel function, and the learning problem is formulated as a convex quadratic programming problem with a unique solution. In this paper the authors have applied the SVM method for data-based state estimation in nuclear power reactors. In particular, they implemented and tested kernels developed at Argonne National Laboratory for the Multivariate State Estimation Technique (MSET), a nonlinear, nonparametric estimation technique with a wide range of applications in nuclear reactors. The methodology has been applied to three data sets from experimental and commercial nuclear power reactor applications. The results are promising. The combination of MSET kernels with the SVM method has better noise reduction and generalization properties than the standard MSET algorithm.
Kinship Systems and Migrant Adaptation: Samoans of the United States.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Shu, Ramsay Leung-Hay
1986-01-01
Focuses on Samoans in Los Angeles to highlight ways that kinship patterns influence cultural adaptation. Finds that the traditional descent corporate group has changed to quasi-kin organization within the migrant community and that because of this, Samoan migrants are relatively less motivated to assimilate into mainstream society. (GC)
Sheng, Zheng; Wang, Jun; Zhou, Shudao; Zhou, Bihua
2014-03-01
This paper introduces a novel hybrid optimization algorithm to establish the parameters of chaotic systems. In order to deal with the weaknesses of the traditional cuckoo search algorithm, the proposed adaptive cuckoo search with simulated annealing algorithm is presented, which incorporates the adaptive parameters adjusting operation and the simulated annealing operation in the cuckoo search algorithm. Normally, the parameters of the cuckoo search algorithm are kept constant that may result in decreasing the efficiency of the algorithm. For the purpose of balancing and enhancing the accuracy and convergence rate of the cuckoo search algorithm, the adaptive operation is presented to tune the parameters properly. Besides, the local search capability of cuckoo search algorithm is relatively weak that may decrease the quality of optimization. So the simulated annealing operation is merged into the cuckoo search algorithm to enhance the local search ability and improve the accuracy and reliability of the results. The functionality of the proposed hybrid algorithm is investigated through the Lorenz chaotic system under the noiseless and noise condition, respectively. The numerical results demonstrate that the method can estimate parameters efficiently and accurately in the noiseless and noise condition. Finally, the results are compared with the traditional cuckoo search algorithm, genetic algorithm, and particle swarm optimization algorithm. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and superior performance of the proposed algorithm. PMID:24697395
Sheng, Zheng; Wang, Jun; Zhou, Bihua; Zhou, Shudao
2014-03-15
This paper introduces a novel hybrid optimization algorithm to establish the parameters of chaotic systems. In order to deal with the weaknesses of the traditional cuckoo search algorithm, the proposed adaptive cuckoo search with simulated annealing algorithm is presented, which incorporates the adaptive parameters adjusting operation and the simulated annealing operation in the cuckoo search algorithm. Normally, the parameters of the cuckoo search algorithm are kept constant that may result in decreasing the efficiency of the algorithm. For the purpose of balancing and enhancing the accuracy and convergence rate of the cuckoo search algorithm, the adaptive operation is presented to tune the parameters properly. Besides, the local search capability of cuckoo search algorithm is relatively weak that may decrease the quality of optimization. So the simulated annealing operation is merged into the cuckoo search algorithm to enhance the local search ability and improve the accuracy and reliability of the results. The functionality of the proposed hybrid algorithm is investigated through the Lorenz chaotic system under the noiseless and noise condition, respectively. The numerical results demonstrate that the method can estimate parameters efficiently and accurately in the noiseless and noise condition. Finally, the results are compared with the traditional cuckoo search algorithm, genetic algorithm, and particle swarm optimization algorithm. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and superior performance of the proposed algorithm.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sheng, Zheng; Wang, Jun; Zhou, Shudao; Zhou, Bihua
2014-03-01
This paper introduces a novel hybrid optimization algorithm to establish the parameters of chaotic systems. In order to deal with the weaknesses of the traditional cuckoo search algorithm, the proposed adaptive cuckoo search with simulated annealing algorithm is presented, which incorporates the adaptive parameters adjusting operation and the simulated annealing operation in the cuckoo search algorithm. Normally, the parameters of the cuckoo search algorithm are kept constant that may result in decreasing the efficiency of the algorithm. For the purpose of balancing and enhancing the accuracy and convergence rate of the cuckoo search algorithm, the adaptive operation is presented to tune the parameters properly. Besides, the local search capability of cuckoo search algorithm is relatively weak that may decrease the quality of optimization. So the simulated annealing operation is merged into the cuckoo search algorithm to enhance the local search ability and improve the accuracy and reliability of the results. The functionality of the proposed hybrid algorithm is investigated through the Lorenz chaotic system under the noiseless and noise condition, respectively. The numerical results demonstrate that the method can estimate parameters efficiently and accurately in the noiseless and noise condition. Finally, the results are compared with the traditional cuckoo search algorithm, genetic algorithm, and particle swarm optimization algorithm. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and superior performance of the proposed algorithm.
Estimated use of water in the New England States, 1990
Korzendorfer, B.A.; Horn, M.A.
1995-01-01
Data on freshwater withdrawals in 1990 were compiled for the New England States. An estimated 4,160 Mgal/d (million gallons per day) of freshwater was withdrawn in 1990 in the six States. Of this total, 1,430 Mgal/d was withdrawn by public suppliers and delivered to users, and 2,720 Mgal/d was withdrawn by domestic, commercial, industrial, agricultural, mining, and thermoelectric power-generation users. More than 83 percent of the freshwater was from surface-water sources. Massachusetts, with the largest population, had the largest withdrawals of water. Data on saline water withdraw, and instream flow at hydroelectric plants were also compiled. An estimated 9, 170 Mgal/d of saline water was used for thermoelectric-power generation and industrial use in Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island. Return flow fro public wastewater-treatment plants totaled 1,750 Mgal/d; more than half (55 percent) of this return flow was in Massachusetts. In addition, about 178,000 Mgal/d was used for instream hydroelectric power generation; the largest users were Maine (about 83,000 Mgal/d) and New Hampshire (46,000 Mgal/d). These data, some of which were based on site-specific water-use information and some based on estimation techniques, were compiled through joint efforts by the U.S. Geological Survey and State cooperators for the 1990 national water-use compilation.
Parameter estimation with an iterative version of the adaptive Gaussian mixture filter
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stordal, A.; Lorentzen, R.
2012-04-01
The adaptive Gaussian mixture filter (AGM) was introduced in Stordal et. al. (ECMOR 2010) as a robust filter technique for large scale applications and an alternative to the well known ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). It consists of two analysis steps, one linear update and one weighting/resampling step. The bias of AGM is determined by two parameters, one adaptive weight parameter (forcing the weights to be more uniform to avoid filter collapse) and one pre-determined bandwidth parameter which decides the size of the linear update. It has been shown that if the adaptive parameter approaches one and the bandwidth parameter decrease with increasing sample size, the filter can achieve asymptotic optimality. For large scale applications with a limited sample size the filter solution may be far from optimal as the adaptive parameter gets close to zero depending on how well the samples from the prior distribution match the data. The bandwidth parameter must often be selected significantly different from zero in order to make large enough linear updates to match the data, at the expense of bias in the estimates. In the iterative AGM we take advantage of the fact that the history matching problem is usually estimation of parameters and initial conditions. If the prior distribution of initial conditions and parameters is close to the posterior distribution, it is possible to match the historical data with a small bandwidth parameter and an adaptive weight parameter that gets close to one. Hence the bias of the filter solution is small. In order to obtain this scenario we iteratively run the AGM throughout the data history with a very small bandwidth to create a new prior distribution from the updated samples after each iteration. After a few iterations, nearly all samples from the previous iteration match the data and the above scenario is achieved. A simple toy problem shows that it is possible to reconstruct the true posterior distribution using the iterative version of
Estimated Carbon Dioxide Emissions in 2008: United States
Smith, C A; Simon, A J; Belles, R D
2011-04-01
Flow charts depicting carbon dioxide emissions in the United States have been constructed from publicly available data and estimates of state-level energy use patterns. Approximately 5,800 million metric tons of carbon dioxide were emitted throughout the United States for use in power production, residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation applications in 2008. Carbon dioxide is emitted from the use of three major energy resources: natural gas, coal, and petroleum. The flow patterns are represented in a compact 'visual atlas' of 52 state-level (all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and one national) carbon dioxide flow charts representing a comprehensive systems view of national CO{sub 2} emissions. Lawrence Livermore National Lab (LLNL) has published flow charts (also referred to as 'Sankey Diagrams') of important national commodities since the early 1970s. The most widely recognized of these charts is the U.S. energy flow chart (http://flowcharts.llnl.gov). LLNL has also published charts depicting carbon (or carbon dioxide potential) flow and water flow at the national level as well as energy, carbon, and water flows at the international, state, municipal, and organizational (i.e. United States Air Force) level. Flow charts are valuable as single-page references that contain quantitative data about resource, commodity, and byproduct flows in a graphical form that also convey structural information about the system that manages those flows. Data on carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector are reported on a national level. Because carbon dioxide emissions are not reported for individual states, the carbon dioxide emissions are estimated using published energy use information. Data on energy use is compiled by the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (U.S. EIA) in the State Energy Data System (SEDS). SEDS is updated annually and reports data from 2 years prior to the year of the update. SEDS contains data on primary
Error estimation and adaptive mesh refinement for parallel analysis of shell structures
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Keating, Scott C.; Felippa, Carlos A.; Park, K. C.
1994-01-01
The formulation and application of element-level, element-independent error indicators is investigated. This research culminates in the development of an error indicator formulation which is derived based on the projection of element deformation onto the intrinsic element displacement modes. The qualifier 'element-level' means that no information from adjacent elements is used for error estimation. This property is ideally suited for obtaining error values and driving adaptive mesh refinements on parallel computers where access to neighboring elements residing on different processors may incur significant overhead. In addition such estimators are insensitive to the presence of physical interfaces and junctures. An error indicator qualifies as 'element-independent' when only visible quantities such as element stiffness and nodal displacements are used to quantify error. Error evaluation at the element level and element independence for the error indicator are highly desired properties for computing error in production-level finite element codes. Four element-level error indicators have been constructed. Two of the indicators are based on variational formulation of the element stiffness and are element-dependent. Their derivations are retained for developmental purposes. The second two indicators mimic and exceed the first two in performance but require no special formulation of the element stiffness mesh refinement which we demonstrate for two dimensional plane stress problems. The parallelizing of substructures and adaptive mesh refinement is discussed and the final error indicator using two-dimensional plane-stress and three-dimensional shell problems is demonstrated.
The Cramer-Rao Bound and Adaptive Estimation with Applications to IC Lithography.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gatherer, Alan
There are many situations where a finite number of parameters are estimated from an input waveform. Some examples are position estimation in radar and sonar, and lithographic alignment in integrate circuit (IC) fabrication. All of these examples involve position and/or amplitude estimation of a single pulse or a series of overlapping pulses. In this thesis lower bounds on the estimation error of amplitude and position are derived and algorithms are developed for position estimation in lithographic alignment. The first part of this thesis concentrates on the use of the Cramer-Rao Bound (CRB) in pulse position and amplitude estimation. The CRB is a lower bound on the estimation error of a parameter that is independent of the algorithm used to estimate the parameter. A new description of the CRB is given in terms of the projection of a single vector onto a subspace formed by a set of other vectors. Simple intuitive approximations to the CRB in pulse position and amplitude estimation are derived. The effect on a given parameter of the pulse shape and the other unknown amplitudes and positions is clearly seen so that pulse shape optimization to minimize the effect of overlapping pulses is then possible. The CRB is also derived for edge position estimation and the effect of a finite observation window on the CRB is examined. The second part of this thesis is concerned with the problem of alignment in IC fabrication. As the minimum feature size of ICs decreases there is a decrease in the maximum alignment error that can occur before circuit malfunction. Therefore more accurate alignment algorithms are required. However, lithography systems are becoming more expensive and high throughput is required from the alignment system. The algorithms described in this thesis have both high accuracy and high throughput. An adaptive alignment algorithm is described and shown to be robust and of low computational complexity. A multi-step approach to alignment is also presented that can
Uncertainties of reverberation time estimation via adaptively identified room impulse responses.
Wu, Lifu; Qiu, Xiaojun; Burnett, Ian; Guo, Yecai
2016-03-01
This paper investigates the reverberation time estimation methods which employ backward integration of adaptively identified room impulse responses (RIRs). Two kinds of conditions are considered; the first is the "ideal condition" where the anechoic and reverberant signals are both known a priori so that the RIRs can be identified using system identification methods. The second is that only the reverberant speech signal is available, and blind identification of the RIRs via dereverberation is employed for reverberation time estimation. Results show that under the "ideal condition," the average relative errors in 7 octave bands are less than 2% for white noise and 15% for speech, respectively, when both the anechoic and reverberant signals are available. In contrast, under the second condition, the average relative errors of the blindly identified RIR-based reverberation time estimation are around 20%-30% except the 63 Hz octave band. The fluctuation of reverberation times estimated under the second condition is more severe than that under the ideal condition and the relative error for low frequency octave bands is larger than that for high octave bands under both conditions. PMID:27036246
Bayesian adaptive estimation of the contrast sensitivity function: The quick CSF method
Lesmes, Luis Andres; Lu, Zhong-Lin; Baek, Jongsoo; Albright, Thomas D.
2015-01-01
The contrast sensitivity function (CSF) predicts functional vision better than acuity, but long testing times prevent its psychophysical assessment in clinical and practical applications. This study presents the quick CSF (qCSF) method, a Bayesian adaptive procedure that applies a strategy developed to estimate multiple parameters of the psychometric function (A. B. Cobo-Lewis, 1996; L. L. Kontsevich & C. W. Tyler, 1999). Before each trial, a one-step-ahead search finds the grating stimulus (defined by frequency and contrast) that maximizes the expected information gain (J. V. Kujala & T. J. Lukka, 2006; L. A. Lesmes et al., 2006), about four CSF parameters. By directly estimating CSF parameters, data collected at one spatial frequency improves sensitivity estimates across all frequencies. A psychophysical study validated that CSFs obtained with 100 qCSF trials (~10 min) exhibited good precision across spatial frequencies (SD < 2–3 dB) and excellent agreement with CSFs obtained independently (mean RMSE = 0.86 dB). To estimate the broad sensitivity metric provided by the area under the log CSF (AULCSF), only 25 trials were needed to achieve a coefficient of variation of 15–20%. The current study demonstrates the method’s value for basic and clinical investigations. Further studies, applying the qCSF to measure wider ranges of normal and abnormal vision, will determine how its efficiency translates to clinical assessment. PMID:20377294
Bayesian adaptive estimation of the contrast sensitivity function: the quick CSF method.
Lesmes, Luis Andres; Lu, Zhong-Lin; Baek, Jongsoo; Albright, Thomas D
2010-01-01
The contrast sensitivity function (CSF) predicts functional vision better than acuity, but long testing times prevent its psychophysical assessment in clinical and practical applications. This study presents the quick CSF (qCSF) method, a Bayesian adaptive procedure that applies a strategy developed to estimate multiple parameters of the psychometric function (A. B. Cobo-Lewis, 1996; L. L. Kontsevich & C. W. Tyler, 1999). Before each trial, a one-step-ahead search finds the grating stimulus (defined by frequency and contrast) that maximizes the expected information gain (J. V. Kujala & T. J. Lukka, 2006; L. A. Lesmes et al., 2006), about four CSF parameters. By directly estimating CSF parameters, data collected at one spatial frequency improves sensitivity estimates across all frequencies. A psychophysical study validated that CSFs obtained with 100 qCSF trials ( approximately 10 min) exhibited good precision across spatial frequencies (SD < 2-3 dB) and excellent agreement with CSFs obtained independently (mean RMSE = 0.86 dB). To estimate the broad sensitivity metric provided by the area under the log CSF (AULCSF), only 25 trials were needed to achieve a coefficient of variation of 15-20%. The current study demonstrates the method's value for basic and clinical investigations. Further studies, applying the qCSF to measure wider ranges of normal and abnormal vision, will determine how its efficiency translates to clinical assessment. PMID:20377294
Fundamental Bounds in Measurements for Estimating Quantum States
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lim, Hyang-Tag; Ra, Young-Sik; Hong, Kang-Hee; Lee, Seung-Woo; Kim, Yoon-Ho
2014-07-01
Quantum measurement unavoidably disturbs the state of a quantum system if any information about the system is extracted. Recently, the concept of reversing quantum measurement has been introduced and has attracted much attention. Numerous efforts have thus been devoted to understanding the fundamental relation of the amount of information obtained by measurement to either state disturbance or reversibility. Here, we experimentally prove the trade-off relations in quantum measurement with respect to both state disturbance and reversibility. By demonstrating the quantitative bound of the trade-off relations, we realize an optimal measurement for estimating quantum systems with minimum disturbance and maximum reversibility. Our results offer fundamental insights on quantum measurement and practical guidelines for implementing various quantum information protocols.
Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes
Sabes, Philip N.
2015-01-01
Tracking moving objects, including one’s own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF), the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm). The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, “probabilistic population codes.” We show that a recurrent neural network—a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH)—that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts) to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states. PMID:26540152
Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes.
Makin, Joseph G; Dichter, Benjamin K; Sabes, Philip N
2015-11-01
Tracking moving objects, including one's own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF), the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm). The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, "probabilistic population codes." We show that a recurrent neural network-a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH)-that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts) to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states. PMID:26540152
Farooqui, Habib; Jit, Mark; Heymann, David L.; Zodpey, Sanjay
2015-01-01
The burden of severe pneumonia in terms of morbidity and mortality is unknown in India especially at sub-national level. In this context, we aimed to estimate the number of severe pneumonia episodes, pneumococcal pneumonia episodes and pneumonia deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2010. We adapted and parameterized a mathematical model based on the epidemiological concept of potential impact fraction developed CHERG for this analysis. The key parameters that determine the distribution of severe pneumonia episode across Indian states were state-specific under-5 population, state-specific prevalence of selected definite pneumonia risk factors and meta-estimates of relative risks for each of these risk factors. We applied the incidence estimates and attributable fraction of risk factors to population estimates for 2010 of each Indian state. We then estimated the number of pneumococcal pneumonia cases by applying the vaccine probe methodology to an existing trial. We estimated mortality due to severe pneumonia and pneumococcal pneumonia by combining incidence estimates with case fatality ratios from multi-centric hospital-based studies. Our results suggest that in 2010, 3.6 million (3.3–3.9 million) episodes of severe pneumonia and 0.35 million (0.31–0.40 million) all cause pneumonia deaths occurred in children younger than 5 years in India. The states that merit special mention include Uttar Pradesh where 18.1% children reside but contribute 24% of pneumonia cases and 26% pneumonia deaths, Bihar (11.3% children, 16% cases, 22% deaths) Madhya Pradesh (6.6% children, 9% cases, 12% deaths), and Rajasthan (6.6% children, 8% cases, 11% deaths). Further, we estimated that 0.56 million (0.49–0.64 million) severe episodes of pneumococcal pneumonia and 105 thousand (92–119 thousand) pneumococcal deaths occurred in India. The top contributors to India’s pneumococcal pneumonia burden were Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in that order. Our
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Blais, Jean-Guy; Raiche, Gilles
This paper examines some characteristics of the statistics associated with the sampling distribution of the proficiency level estimate when the Rasch model is used. These characteristics allow the judgment of the meaning to be given to the proficiency level estimate obtained in adaptive testing, and as a consequence, they can illustrate the…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Durán-Barroso, Pablo; González, Javier; Valdés, Juan B.
2016-04-01
Rainfall-runoff quantification is one of the most important tasks in both engineering and watershed management as it allows to identify, forecast and explain watershed response. For that purpose, the Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number method (NRCS CN) is the conceptual lumped model more recognized in the field of rainfall-runoff estimation. Furthermore, there is still an ongoing discussion about the procedure to determine the portion of rainfall retained in the watershed before runoff is generated, called as initial abstractions. This concept is computed as a ratio (λ) of the soil potential maximum retention S of the watershed. Initially, this ratio was assumed to be 0.2, but later it has been proposed to be modified to 0.05. However, the actual procedures to convert NRCS CN model parameters obtained under a different hypothesis about λ do not incorporate any adaptation of climatic conditions of each watershed. By this reason, we propose a new simple method for computing model parameters which is adapted to local conditions taking into account regional patterns of climate conditions. After checking the goodness of this procedure against the actual ones in 34 different watersheds located in Ohio and Texas (United States), we concluded that this novel methodology represents the most accurate and efficient alternative to refit the initial abstraction ratio.
Conroy, M.J.; Runge, J.P.; Barker, R.J.; Schofield, M.R.; Fonnesbeck, C.J.
2008-01-01
Many organisms are patchily distributed, with some patches occupied at high density, others at lower densities, and others not occupied. Estimation of overall abundance can be difficult and is inefficient via intensive approaches such as capture-mark-recapture (CMR) or distance sampling. We propose a two-phase sampling scheme and model in a Bayesian framework to estimate abundance for patchily distributed populations. In the first phase, occupancy is estimated by binomial detection samples taken on all selected sites, where selection may be of all sites available, or a random sample of sites. Detection can be by visual surveys, detection of sign, physical captures, or other approach. At the second phase, if a detection threshold is achieved, CMR or other intensive sampling is conducted via standard procedures (grids or webs) to estimate abundance. Detection and CMR data are then used in a joint likelihood to model probability of detection in the occupancy sample via an abundance-detection model. CMR modeling is used to estimate abundance for the abundance-detection relationship, which in turn is used to predict abundance at the remaining sites, where only detection data are collected. We present a full Bayesian modeling treatment of this problem, in which posterior inference on abundance and other parameters (detection, capture probability) is obtained under a variety of assumptions about spatial and individual sources of heterogeneity. We apply the approach to abundance estimation for two species of voles (Microtus spp.) in Montana, USA. We also use a simulation study to evaluate the frequentist properties of our procedure given known patterns in abundance and detection among sites as well as design criteria. For most population characteristics and designs considered, bias and mean-square error (MSE) were low, and coverage of true parameter values by Bayesian credibility intervals was near nominal. Our two-phase, adaptive approach allows efficient estimation of
Inline state of health estimation of lithium-ion batteries using state of charge calculation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sepasi, Saeed; Ghorbani, Reza; Liaw, Bor Yann
2015-12-01
The determination of state-of-health (SOH) and state-of-charge (SOC) is challenging and remains as an active research area in academia and industry due to its importance for Li-ion battery applications. The estimation process poses more challenges after substantial battery aging. This paper presents an inline SOH and SOC estimation method for Li-ion battery packs, specifically for those based on LiFePO4 chemistry. This new hybridized SOC and SOH estimator can be used for battery packs. Inline estimated model parameters were used in a compounded SOC + SOH estimator consisting of the SOC calculation based on coulomb counting method as an expedient approach and an SOH observer using an extended Kalman filter (EKF) technique for calibrating the estimates from the coulomb counting method. The algorithm's low SOC and SOH estimation error, fast response time, and less-demanding computational requirement make it practical for on-board estimations. The simulation and experimental results, along with the test bed structure, are presented to validate the proposed methodology on a single cell and a 3S1P LiFePO4 battery pack.
Adaptive time-delayed stabilization of steady states and periodic orbits.
Selivanov, Anton; Lehnert, Judith; Fradkov, Alexander; Schöll, Eckehard
2015-01-01
We derive adaptive time-delayed feedback controllers that stabilize fixed points and periodic orbits. First, we develop an adaptive controller for stabilization of a steady state by applying the speed-gradient method to an appropriate goal function and prove global asymptotic stability of the resulting system. For an example we show that the advantage of the adaptive controller over the nonadaptive one is in a smaller controller gain. Second, we propose adaptive time-delayed algorithms for stabilization of periodic orbits. Their efficiency is confirmed by local stability analysis. Numerical examples demonstrate the applicability of the proposed controllers. PMID:25679681
Adaptive time-delayed stabilization of steady states and periodic orbits
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Selivanov, Anton; Lehnert, Judith; Fradkov, Alexander; Schöll, Eckehard
2015-01-01
We derive adaptive time-delayed feedback controllers that stabilize fixed points and periodic orbits. First, we develop an adaptive controller for stabilization of a steady state by applying the speed-gradient method to an appropriate goal function and prove global asymptotic stability of the resulting system. For an example we show that the advantage of the adaptive controller over the nonadaptive one is in a smaller controller gain. Second, we propose adaptive time-delayed algorithms for stabilization of periodic orbits. Their efficiency is confirmed by local stability analysis. Numerical examples demonstrate the applicability of the proposed controllers.
Kolus, Ahmet; Dubé, Philippe-Antoine; Imbeau, Daniel; Labib, Richard; Dubeau, Denise
2014-11-01
In new approaches based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy systems (ANFIS) and analytical method, heart rate (HR) measurements were used to estimate oxygen consumption (VO2). Thirty-five participants performed Meyer and Flenghi's step-test (eight of which performed regeneration release work), during which heart rate and oxygen consumption were measured. Two individualized models and a General ANFIS model that does not require individual calibration were developed. Results indicated the superior precision achieved with individualized ANFIS modelling (RMSE = 1.0 and 2.8 ml/kg min in laboratory and field, respectively). The analytical model outperformed the traditional linear calibration and Flex-HR methods with field data. The General ANFIS model's estimates of VO2 were not significantly different from actual field VO2 measurements (RMSE = 3.5 ml/kg min). With its ease of use and low implementation cost, the General ANFIS model shows potential to replace any of the traditional individualized methods for VO2 estimation from HR data collected in the field. PMID:24793823
Pilot-Assisted Adaptive Channel Estimation for Coded MC-CDMA with ICI Cancellation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yui, Tatsunori; Tomeba, Hiromichi; Adachi, Fumiyuki
One of the promising wireless access techniques for the next generation mobile communications systems is multi-carrier code division multiple access (MC-CDMA). MC-CDMA can provide good transmission performance owing to the frequency diversity effect in a severe frequency-selective fading channel. However, the bit error rate (BER) performance of coded MC-CDMA is inferior to that of orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) due to the residual inter-code interference (ICI) after frequency-domain equalization (FDE). Recently, we proposed a frequency-domain soft interference cancellation (FDSIC) to reduce the residual ICI and confirmed by computer simulation that the MC-CDMA with FDSIC provides better BER performance than OFDM. However, ideal channel estimation was assumed. In this paper, we propose adaptive decision-feedback channel estimation (ADFCE) and evaluate by computer simulation the average BER and throughput performances of turbo-coded MC-CDMA with FDSIC. We show that even if a practical channel estimation is used, MC-CDMA with FDSIC can still provide better performance than OFDM.
Estimating irrigation water use in the humid eastern United States
Levin, Sara B.; Zarriello, Phillip J.
2013-01-01
Accurate accounting of irrigation water use is an important part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Use Information Program and the WaterSMART initiative to help maintain sustainable water resources in the Nation. Irrigation water use in the humid eastern United States is not well characterized because of inadequate reporting and wide variability associated with climate, soils, crops, and farming practices. To better understand irrigation water use in the eastern United States, two types of predictive models were developed and compared by using metered irrigation water-use data for corn, cotton, peanut, and soybean crops in Georgia and turf farms in Rhode Island. Reliable metered irrigation data were limited to these areas. The first predictive model that was developed uses logistic regression to predict the occurrence of irrigation on the basis of antecedent climate conditions. Logistic regression equations were developed for corn, cotton, peanut, and soybean crops by using weekly irrigation water-use data from 36 metered sites in Georgia in 2009 and 2010 and turf farms in Rhode Island from 2000 to 2004. For the weeks when irrigation was predicted to take place, the irrigation water-use volume was estimated by multiplying the average metered irrigation application rate by the irrigated acreage for a given crop. The second predictive model that was developed is a crop-water-demand model that uses a daily soil water balance to estimate the water needs of a crop on a given day based on climate, soil, and plant properties. Crop-water-demand models were developed independently of reported irrigation water-use practices and relied on knowledge of plant properties that are available in the literature. Both modeling approaches require accurate accounting of irrigated area and crop type to estimate total irrigation water use. Water-use estimates from both modeling methods were compared to the metered irrigation data from Rhode Island and Georgia that were used to
State Estimation and Forecasting of the Ski-Slope Model Using an Improved Shadowing Filter
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mat Daud, Auni Aslah
In this paper, we present the application of the gradient descent of indeterminism (GDI) shadowing filter to a chaotic system, that is the ski-slope model. The paper focuses on the quality of the estimated states and their usability for forecasting. One main problem is that the existing GDI shadowing filter fails to provide stability to the convergence of the root mean square error and the last point error of the ski-slope model. Furthermore, there are unexpected cases in which the better state estimates give worse forecasts than the worse state estimates. We investigate these unexpected cases in particular and show how the presence of the humps contributes to them. However, the results show that the GDI shadowing filter can successfully be applied to the ski-slope model with only slight modification, that is, by introducing the adaptive step-size to ensure the convergence of indeterminism. We investigate its advantages over fixed step-size and how it can improve the performance of our shadowing filter.
Dynamic battery cell model and state of charge estimation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wijewardana, S.; Vepa, R.; Shaheed, M. H.
2016-03-01
Mathematical modelling and the dynamic simulation of battery storage systems can be challenging and demanding due to the nonlinear nature of the battery chemistry. This paper introduces a new dynamic battery model, with application to state of charge estimation, considering all possible aspects of environmental conditions and variables. The aim of this paper is to present a suitable convenient, generic dynamic representation of rechargeable battery dynamics that can be used to model any Lithium-ion rechargeable battery. The proposed representation is used to develop a dynamic model considering the thermal balance of heat generation mechanism of the battery cell and the ambient temperature effect including other variables such as storage effects, cyclic charging, battery internal resistance, state of charge etc. The results of the simulations have been used to study the characteristics of a Lithium-ion battery and the proposed battery model is shown to produce responses within 98% of known experimental measurements.
Estimated United States Residential Energy Use in 2005
Smith, C A; Johnson, D M; Simon, A J; Belles, R D
2011-12-12
A flow chart depicting energy flow in the residential sector of the United States economy in 2005 has been constructed from publicly available data and estimates of national energy use patterns. Approximately 11,000 trillion British Thermal Units (trBTUs) of electricity and fuels were used throughout the United States residential sector in lighting, electronics, air conditioning, space heating, water heating, washing appliances, cooking appliances, refrigerators, and other appliances. The residential sector is powered mainly by electricity and natural gas. Other fuels used include petroleum products (fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas and kerosene), biomass (wood), and on-premises solar, wind, and geothermal energy. The flow patterns represent a comprehensive systems view of energy used within the residential sector.
Wavelet-Based Speech Enhancement Using Time-Adapted Noise Estimation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lei, Sheau-Fang; Tung, Ying-Kai
Spectral subtraction is commonly used for speech enhancement in a single channel system because of the simplicity of its implementation. However, this algorithm introduces perceptually musical noise while suppressing the background noise. We propose a wavelet-based approach in this paper for suppressing the background noise for speech enhancement in a single channel system. The wavelet packet transform, which emulates the human auditory system, is used to decompose the noisy signal into critical bands. Wavelet thresholding is then temporally adjusted with the noise power by time-adapted noise estimation. The proposed algorithm can efficiently suppress the noise while reducing speech distortion. Experimental results, including several objective measurements, show that the proposed wavelet-based algorithm outperforms spectral subtraction and other wavelet-based denoising approaches for speech enhancement for nonstationary noise environments.
Regularized Estimate of the Weight Vector of an Adaptive Interference Canceller
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ermolayev, V. T.; Sorokin, I. S.; Flaksman, A. G.; Yastrebov, A. V.
2016-05-01
We consider an adaptive multi-channel interference canceller, which ensures the minimum value of the average output power of interference. It is proposed to form the weight vector of such a canceller as the power-vector expansion. It is shown that this approach allows one to obtain an exact analytical solution for the optimal weight vector by using the procedure of the power-vector orthogonalization. In the case of a limited number of the input-process samples, the solution becomes ill-defined and its regularization is required. An effective regularization method, which ensures a high degree of the interference suppression and does not involve the procedure of inversion of the correlation matrix of interference, is proposed, which significantly reduces the computational cost of the weight-vector estimation.
Regularized Estimate of the Weight Vector of an Adaptive Interference Canceller
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ermolayev, V. T.; Sorokin, I. S.; Flaksman, A. G.; Yastrebov, A. V.
2016-06-01
We consider an adaptive multi-channel interference canceller, which ensures the minimum value of the average output power of interference. It is proposed to form the weight vector of such a canceller as the power-vector expansion. It is shown that this approach allows one to obtain an exact analytical solution for the optimal weight vector by using the procedure of the power-vector orthogonalization. In the case of a limited number of the input-process samples, the solution becomes ill-defined and its regularization is required. An effective regularization method, which ensures a high degree of the interference suppression and does not involve the procedure of inversion of the correlation matrix of interference, is proposed, which significantly reduces the computational cost of the weight-vector estimation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bu, Guochao; Wang, Pei
2016-04-01
Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) has been used to extract accurate forest biophysical parameters for inventory purposes. The diameter at breast height (DBH) is a key parameter for individual trees because it has the potential for modeling the height, volume, biomass, and carbon sequestration potential of the tree based on empirical allometric scaling equations. In order to extract the DBH from the single-scan data of TLS automatically and accurately within a certain range, we proposed an adaptive circle-ellipse fitting method based on the point cloud transect. This proposed method can correct the error caused by the simple circle fitting method when a tree is slanted. A slanted tree was detected by the circle-ellipse fitting analysis, then the corresponding slant angle was found based on the ellipse fitting result. With this information, the DBH of the trees could be recalculated based on reslicing the point cloud data at breast height. Artificial stem data simulated by a cylindrical model of leaning trees and the scanning data acquired with the RIEGL VZ-400 were used to test the proposed adaptive fitting method. The results shown that the proposed method can detect the trees and accurately estimate the DBH for leaning trees.
Global coupled sea ice-ocean state estimation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fenty, Ian; Menemenlis, Dimitris; Zhang, Hong
2015-09-01
We study the impact of synthesizing ocean and sea ice concentration data with a global, eddying coupled sea ice-ocean configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model with the goal of reproducing the 2004 three-dimensional time-evolving ice-ocean state. This work builds on the state estimation framework developed in the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean consortium by seeking a reconstruction of the global sea ice-ocean system that is simultaneously consistent with (1) a suite of in situ and remotely-sensed ocean and ice data and (2) the physics encoded in the numerical model. This dual consistency is successfully achieved here by adjusting only the model's initial hydrographic state and its atmospheric boundary conditions such that misfits between the model and data are minimized in a least-squares sense. We show that synthesizing both ocean and sea ice concentration data is required for the model to adequately reproduce the observed details of the sea ice annual cycle in both hemispheres. Surprisingly, only modest adjustments to our first-guess atmospheric state and ocean initial conditions are necessary to achieve model-data consistency, suggesting that atmospheric reanalysis products remain a leading source of errors for sea ice-ocean model hindcasts and reanalyses. The synthesis of sea ice data is found to ameliorate misfits in the high latitude ocean, especially with respect to upper ocean stratification, temperature, and salinity. Constraining the model to sea ice concentration modestly reduces ICESat-derived Arctic ice thickness errors by improving the temporal and spatial evolution of seasonal ice. Further increases in the accuracy of global sea ice thickness in the model likely require the direct synthesis of sea ice thickness data.
Adaptive estimation of hand movement trajectory in an EEG based brain-computer interface system
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Robinson, Neethu; Guan, Cuntai; Vinod, A. P.
2015-12-01
Objective. The various parameters that define a hand movement such as its trajectory, speed, etc, are encoded in distinct brain activities. Decoding this information from neurophysiological recordings is a less explored area of brain-computer interface (BCI) research. Applying non-invasive recordings such as electroencephalography (EEG) for decoding makes the problem more challenging, as the encoding is assumed to be deep within the brain and not easily accessible by scalp recordings. Approach. EEG based BCI systems can be developed to identify the neural features underlying movement parameters that can be further utilized to provide a detailed and well defined control command set to a BCI output device. A real-time continuous control is better suited for practical BCI systems, and can be achieved by continuous adaptive reconstruction of movement trajectory than discrete brain activity classifications. In this work, we adaptively reconstruct/estimate the parameters of two-dimensional hand movement trajectory, namely movement speed and position, from multi-channel EEG recordings. The data for analysis is collected by performing an experiment that involved center-out right-hand movement tasks in four different directions at two different speeds in random order. We estimate movement trajectory using a Kalman filter that models the relation between brain activity and recorded parameters based on a set of defined predictors. We propose a method to define these predictor variables that includes spatial, spectral and temporally localized neural information and to select optimally informative variables. Main results. The proposed method yielded correlation of (0.60 ± 0.07) between recorded and estimated data. Further, incorporating the proposed predictor subset selection, the correlation achieved is (0.57 ± 0.07, p {\\lt }0.004) with significant gain in stability of the system, as well as dramatic reduction in number of predictors (76%) for the savings of computational
Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 1980
Solley, Wayne B.; Chase, Edith B.; Mann, William B., IV
1983-01-01
Water use in the United States in 1980 was estimated to be an average of 450 bgd (billion gallons per day) of fresh and saline water for offstream uses- an 8-percent increase from the 1975 estimate and a 22-percent increase from the 1970 estimate. Average per capita use for all offstream uses was 2,000 gpd (gallons per day) of fresh and saline water, and 1,600 gpd of fresh water; this represents a slight increase since 1975. Offstream uses include (1) public supply (domestic, public, commercial, and industrial uses), (2) rural (domestic and livestock uses), (3) irrigation, and (4) self-supplied industrial uses (including thermoelectric power). From 1975 to 1980, public supply use increased 15 percent to 34 bgd, rural use increased 14 percent to 5.6 bgd, irrigation use increased 7 percent to 150 bgd, and self-supplied industrial use increased 8 percent to 260 bgd. Within the industrial category, thermoelectric power generation increased 9 percent to 210 bgd, whereas other self-supplied industrial uses remained approximately constant at 45 bgd. Total fresh water consumed- that part of water withdrawn that is no longer available for subsequent use- by these offstream uses increased 7 percent to 100 bgd, with irrigation accounting for the largest part of water consumed, estimated at 83 bgd. Estimates of withdrawals by source indicate that from 1975 to 1980, total groundwater withdrawals increased 7 percent to 89 bgd, and total surface-water withdrawals increased 9 percent to 360 bgd. Total saline-water withdrawals increased by about 2 bgd to 72 bgd, of which 71 bgd was saline surface water. Reclaimed sewage amounted to about 0.5 bgd in 1980, an 11-percent decrease from 1975. Water used for hydroelectric power generation, an instream use, remained unchanged from 1975 at 3,300 bgd. This is in contrast to the increasing trend from 1950 to 1975. Although 1980 estimates of water use were higher than the 1975 estimates for all offstream categories, trends establishing during
Lombardo, Marco; Serrao, Sebastiano; Lombardo, Giuseppe
2014-01-01
Purpose To investigate the influence of various technical factors on the variation of cone packing density estimates in adaptive optics flood illuminated retinal images. Methods Adaptive optics images of the photoreceptor mosaic were obtained in fifteen healthy subjects. The cone density and Voronoi diagrams were assessed in sampling windows of 320×320 µm, 160×160 µm and 64×64 µm at 1.5 degree temporal and superior eccentricity from the preferred locus of fixation (PRL). The technical factors that have been analyzed included the sampling window size, the corrected retinal magnification factor (RMFcorr), the conversion from radial to linear distance from the PRL, the displacement between the PRL and foveal center and the manual checking of cone identification algorithm. Bland-Altman analysis was used to assess the agreement between cone density estimated within the different sampling window conditions. Results The cone density declined with decreasing sampling area and data between areas of different size showed low agreement. A high agreement was found between sampling areas of the same size when comparing density calculated with or without using individual RMFcorr. The agreement between cone density measured at radial and linear distances from the PRL and between data referred to the PRL or the foveal center was moderate. The percentage of Voronoi tiles with hexagonal packing arrangement was comparable between sampling areas of different size. The boundary effect, presence of any retinal vessels, and the manual selection of cones missed by the automated identification algorithm were identified as the factors influencing variation of cone packing arrangements in Voronoi diagrams. Conclusions The sampling window size is the main technical factor that influences variation of cone density. Clear identification of each cone in the image and the use of a large buffer zone are necessary to minimize factors influencing variation of Voronoi diagrams of the cone
Adaptive data-driven models for estimating carbon fluxes in the Northern Great Plains
Wylie, B.K.; Fosnight, E.A.; Gilmanov, T.G.; Frank, A.B.; Morgan, J.A.; Haferkamp, Marshall R.; Meyers, T.P.
2007-01-01
Rangeland carbon fluxes are highly variable in both space and time. Given the expansive areas of rangelands, how rangelands respond to climatic variation, management, and soil potential is important to understanding carbon dynamics. Rangeland carbon fluxes associated with Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) were measured from multiple year data sets at five flux tower locations in the Northern Great Plains. These flux tower measurements were combined with 1-km2 spatial data sets of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), temperature, precipitation, seasonal NDVI metrics, and soil characteristics. Flux tower measurements were used to train and select variables for a rule-based piece-wise regression model. The accuracy and stability of the model were assessed through random cross-validation and cross-validation by site and year. Estimates of NEE were produced for each 10-day period during each growing season from 1998 to 2001. Growing season carbon flux estimates were combined with winter flux estimates to derive and map annual estimates of NEE. The rule-based piece-wise regression model is a dynamic, adaptive model that captures the relationships of the spatial data to NEE as conditions evolve throughout the growing season. The carbon dynamics in the Northern Great Plains proved to be in near equilibrium, serving as a small carbon sink in 1999 and as a small carbon source in 1998, 2000, and 2001. Patterns of carbon sinks and sources are very complex, with the carbon dynamics tilting toward sources in the drier west and toward sinks in the east and near the mountains in the extreme west. Significant local variability exists, which initial investigations suggest are likely related to local climate variability, soil properties, and management.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Elmi, Omid; Javad Tourian, Mohammad; Sneeuw, Nico
2015-04-01
The importance of river discharge monitoring is critical for e.g., water resource planning, climate change, hazard monitoring. River discharge has been measured at in situ gauges for more than a century. Despite various attempts, some basins are still ungauged. Moreover, a reduction in the number of worldwide gauging stations increases the interest to employ remote sensing data for river discharge monitoring. Finding an empirical relationship between simultaneous in situ measurements of discharge and river widths derived from satellite imagery has been introduced as a straightforward remote sensing alternative. Classifying water and land in an image is the primary task for defining the river width. Water appears dark in the near infrared and infrared bands in satellite images. As a result low values in the histogram usually represent the water content. In this way, applying a threshold on the image histogram and separating into two different classes is one of the most efficient techniques to build a water mask. Beside its simple definition, finding the appropriate threshold value in each image is the most critical issue. The threshold is variable due to changes in the water level, river extent, atmosphere, sunlight radiation, onboard calibration of the satellite over time. These complexities in water body classification are the main source of error in river width estimation. In this study, we are looking for the most efficient adaptive threshold algorithm to estimate the river discharge. To do this, all cloud free MODIS images coincident with the in situ measurement are collected. Next a number of automatic threshold selection techniques are employed to generate different dynamic water masks. Then, for each of them a separate empirical relationship between river widths and discharge measurements are determined. Through these empirical relationships, we estimate river discharge at the gauge and then validate our results against in situ measurements and also
Semi-solid state adaptive impedance composites for HIRF protection
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bramlette, Richard B.; Barrett, Ronald M.
2010-04-01
The feasibility of piezoelectric-based Adaptive-Impedance Composites (AIC) as a method of protecting aircraft equipment from lightning strike events and the resultant High-Intensity Radiated Fields (HIRF) was investigated. Classical Laminated Plate Theory (CLPT) and sheet vibration theory were applied to analytically derive the performance of the AIC. Multiple prototypes were built for high voltage testing which revealed closed- to open-circuit switching as fast as 77 μs. It was observed that slight geometric variations of the AIC strongly influenced the activation voltage. The voltage necessary to trigger the 85mm long, 3rd generation AIC's impedance could be set between 10 and 60 V. The test data and the analytical predictions were compared with the lightning strike data gathered by ONERA. The comparison indicated the AIC switching speed was over 30 times faster than the necessary minimum to shield typical avionics and flight control mechanisms from lightning-strike induced electrical eddy currents and HIRF.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Klein, R.; Gordon, E.
2010-12-01
Scholars and policy analysts often contend that an effective climate adaptation strategy must entail "mainstreaming," or incorporating responses to possible climate impacts into existing planning and management decision frameworks. Such an approach, however, makes it difficult to assess the degree to which decisionmaking entities are engaging in adaptive activities that may or may not be explicitly framed around a changing climate. For example, a drought management plan may not explicitly address climate change, but the activities and strategies outlined in it may reduce vulnerabilities posed by a variable and changing climate. Consequently, to generate a strategic climate adaptation plan requires identifying the entire suite of activities that are implicitly linked to climate and may affect adaptive capacity within the system. Here we outline a novel, two-pronged approach, leveraging social science methods, to understanding adaptation throughout state government in Colorado. First, we conducted a series of interviews with key actors in state and federal government agencies, non-governmental organizations, universities, and other entities engaged in state issues. The purpose of these interviews was to elicit information about current activities that may affect the state’s adaptive capacity and to identify future climate-related needs across the state. Second, we have developed an interactive database cataloging organizations, products, projects, and people actively engaged in adaptive planning and policymaking that are relevant to the state of Colorado. The database includes a wiki interface, helping create a dynamic component that will enable frequent updating as climate-relevant information emerges. The results of this project are intended to paint a clear picture of sectors and agencies with higher and lower levels of adaptation awareness and to provide a roadmap for the next gubernatorial administration to pursue a more sophisticated climate adaptation agenda
Estimation of the Maximal Lactate Steady State in Endurance Runners.
Llodio, I; Gorostiaga, E M; Garcia-Tabar, I; Granados, C; Sánchez-Medina, L
2016-06-01
This study aimed to predict the velocity corresponding to the maximal lactate steady state (MLSSV) from non-invasive variables obtained during a maximal multistage running field test (modified University of Montreal Track Test, UMTT), and to determine whether a single constant velocity test (CVT), performed several days after the UMTT, could estimate the MLSSV. Within 4-5 weeks, 20 male runners performed: 1) a modified UMTT, and 2) several 30 min CVTs to determine MLSSV to a precision of 0.25 km·h(-1). Maximal aerobic velocity (MAV) was the best predictor of MLSSV. A regression equation was obtained: MLSSV=1.425+(0.756·MAV); R(2)=0.63. Running velocity during the CVT (VCVT) and blood lactate at 6 (La6) and 30 (La30) min further improved the MLSSV prediction: MLSSV=VCVT+0.503 - (0.266·ΔLa30-6); R(2)=0.66. MLSSV can be estimated from MAV during a single maximal multistage running field test among a homogeneous group of trained runners. This estimation can be further improved by performing an additional CVT. In terms of accuracy, simplicity and cost-effectiveness, the reported regression equations can be used for the assessment and training prescription of endurance runners. PMID:27116348
Using fault displacement and slip tendency to estimate stress states
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Morris, Alan P.; Ferrill, David A.; McGinnis, Ronald N.
2016-02-01
We suggest that faults in high slip tendency orientations tend to develop larger displacements than other faults. Consequently, faults that accumulate larger displacements are more likely to be reliable indicators of the longer term stress field and should be weighted accordingly in paleostress estimation. Application of a stress inversion technique that uses slip tendency analyses and fault displacements to interpret populations of coherent normal faults within the Balcones Fault System of south-central Texas provides stress estimates that are consistent with established regional stress analyses. Although the method does not require measurement of slip directions, these data, where available, and sensitivity analyses of the angular mismatch between measured slip directions and those predicted by inverted stress states provide high confidence in the stress estimates generated using slip tendency analyses. Close inspection of the fault orientation and displacement data further indicates that subpopulations of faults with orientations different from the regional pattern have formed in response to stress perturbations generated by displacement gradients on an adjacent seismic scale fault.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Lee-Rausch, E. M.; Park, M. A.; Jones, W. T.; Hammond, D. P.; Nielsen, E. J.
2005-01-01
This paper demonstrates the extension of error estimation and adaptation methods to parallel computations enabling larger, more realistic aerospace applications and the quantification of discretization errors for complex 3-D solutions. Results were shown for an inviscid sonic-boom prediction about a double-cone configuration and a wing/body segmented leading edge (SLE) configuration where the output function of the adjoint was pressure integrated over a part of the cylinder in the near field. After multiple cycles of error estimation and surface/field adaptation, a significant improvement in the inviscid solution for the sonic boom signature of the double cone was observed. Although the double-cone adaptation was initiated from a very coarse mesh, the near-field pressure signature from the final adapted mesh compared very well with the wind-tunnel data which illustrates that the adjoint-based error estimation and adaptation process requires no a priori refinement of the mesh. Similarly, the near-field pressure signature for the SLE wing/body sonic boom configuration showed a significant improvement from the initial coarse mesh to the final adapted mesh in comparison with the wind tunnel results. Error estimation and field adaptation results were also presented for the viscous transonic drag prediction of the DLR-F6 wing/body configuration, and results were compared to a series of globally refined meshes. Two of these globally refined meshes were used as a starting point for the error estimation and field-adaptation process where the output function for the adjoint was the total drag. The field-adapted results showed an improvement in the prediction of the drag in comparison with the finest globally refined mesh and a reduction in the estimate of the remaining drag error. The adjoint-based adaptation parameter showed a need for increased resolution in the surface of the wing/body as well as a need for wake resolution downstream of the fuselage and wing trailing edge
Neural network programming in bioprocess variable estimation and state prediction.
Linko, P; Zhu, Y H
1991-12-01
A neural network program with efficient learning ability for bioprocess variable estimation and state prediction was developed. A 3 layer, feed-forward neural network architecture was used, and the program was written in Quick C ver 2.5 for an IBM compatible computer with a 80486/33 MHz processor. A back propagation training algorithm was used based on learning by pattern and momentum in a combination as used to adjust the connection of weights of the neurons in adjacent layers. The delta rule was applied in a gradient descent search technique to minimize a cost function equal to the mean square difference between the target and the network output. A non-linear, sigmoidal logistic transfer function was used in squashing the weighted sum of the inputs of each neuron to a limited range output. A good neural network prediction model was obtained by training with a sequence of past time course data of a typical bioprocess. The well trained neural network estimated accurately and rapidly the state variables with or without noise even under varying process dynamics. PMID:1367695
Neural adaptive chaotic control with constrained input using state and output feedback
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gao, Shi-Gen; Dong, Hai-Rong; Sun, Xu-Bin; Ning, Bin
2015-01-01
This paper presents neural adaptive control methods for a class of chaotic nonlinear systems in the presence of constrained input and unknown dynamics. To attenuate the influence of constrained input caused by actuator saturation, an effective auxiliary system is constructed to prevent the stability of closed loop system from being destroyed. Radial basis function neural networks (RBF-NNs) are used in the online learning of the unknown dynamics, which do not require an off-line training phase. Both state and output feedback control laws are developed. In the output feedback case, high-order sliding mode (HOSM) observer is utilized to estimate the unmeasurable system states. Simulation results are presented to verify the effectiveness of proposed schemes. Project supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2012AA041701), the Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities of China (Grant No. 2013JBZ007), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61233001, 61322307, 61304196, and 61304157), and the Research Program of Beijing Jiaotong University, China (Grant No. RCS2012ZZ003).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bargatze, L. F.
2015-12-01
Active Data Archive Product Tracking (ADAPT) is a collection of software routines that permits one to generate XML metadata files to describe and register data products in support of the NASA Heliophysics Virtual Observatory VxO effort. ADAPT is also a philosophy. The ADAPT concept is to use any and all available metadata associated with scientific data to produce XML metadata descriptions in a consistent, uniform, and organized fashion to provide blanket access to the full complement of data stored on a targeted data server. In this poster, we present an application of ADAPT to describe all of the data products that are stored by using the Common Data File (CDF) format served out by the CDAWEB and SPDF data servers hosted at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. These data servers are the primary repositories for NASA Heliophysics data. For this purpose, the ADAPT routines have been used to generate data resource descriptions by using an XML schema named Space Physics Archive, Search, and Extract (SPASE). SPASE is the designated standard for documenting Heliophysics data products, as adopted by the Heliophysics Data and Model Consortium. The set of SPASE XML resource descriptions produced by ADAPT includes high-level descriptions of numerical data products, display data products, or catalogs and also includes low-level "Granule" descriptions. A SPASE Granule is effectively a universal access metadata resource; a Granule associates an individual data file (e.g. a CDF file) with a "parent" high-level data resource description, assigns a resource identifier to the file, and lists the corresponding assess URL(s). The CDAWEB and SPDF file systems were queried to provide the input required by the ADAPT software to create an initial set of SPASE metadata resource descriptions. Then, the CDAWEB and SPDF data repositories were queried subsequently on a nightly basis and the CDF file lists were checked for any changes such as the occurrence of new, modified, or deleted
Meliopoulos, Sakis; Cokkinides, George; Fardanesh, Bruce; Hedrington, Clinton
2013-12-31
This is the final report for this project that was performed in the period: October1, 2009 to June 30, 2013. In this project, a fully distributed high-fidelity dynamic state estimator (DSE) that continuously tracks the real time dynamic model of a wide area system with update rates better than 60 times per second is achieved. The proposed technology is based on GPS-synchronized measurements but also utilizes data from all available Intelligent Electronic Devices in the system (numerical relays, digital fault recorders, digital meters, etc.). The distributed state estimator provides the real time model of the system not only the voltage phasors. The proposed system provides the infrastructure for a variety of applications and two very important applications (a) a high fidelity generating unit parameters estimation and (b) an energy function based transient stability monitoring of a wide area electric power system with predictive capability. Also the dynamic distributed state estimation results are stored (the storage scheme includes data and coincidental model) enabling an automatic reconstruction and “play back” of a system wide disturbance. This approach enables complete play back capability with fidelity equal to that of real time with the advantage of “playing back” at a user selected speed. The proposed technologies were developed and tested in the lab during the first 18 months of the project and then demonstrated on two actual systems, the USVI Water and Power Administration system and the New York Power Authority’s Blenheim-Gilboa pumped hydro plant in the last 18 months of the project. The four main thrusts of this project, mentioned above, are extremely important to the industry. The DSE with the achieved update rates (more than 60 times per second) provides a superior solution to the “grid visibility” question. The generator parameter identification method fills an important and practical need of the industry. The “energy function” based
Kendall, W.L.; Nichols, J.D.
2002-01-01
Temporary emigration was identified some time ago as causing potential problems in capture-recapture studies, and in the last five years approaches have been developed for dealing with special cases of this general problem. Temporary emigration can be viewed more generally as involving transitions to and from an unobservable state, and frequently the state itself is one of biological interest (e.g., 'nonbreeder'). Development of models that permit estimation of relevant parameters in the presence of an unobservable state requires either extra information (e.g., as supplied by Pollock's robust design) or the following classes of model constraints: reducing the order of Markovian transition probabilities, imposing a degree of determinism on transition probabilities, removing state specificity of survival probabilities, and imposing temporal constancy of parameters. The objective of the work described in this paper is to investigate estimability of model parameters under a variety of models that include an unobservable state. Beginning with a very general model and no extra information, we used numerical methods to systematically investigate the use of ancillary information and constraints to yield models that are useful for estimation. The result is a catalog of models for which estimation is possible. An example analysis of sea turtle capture-recapture data under two different models showed similar point estimates but increased precision for the model that incorporated ancillary data (the robust design) when compared to the model with deterministic transitions only. This comparison and the results of our numerical investigation of model structures lead to design suggestions for capture-recapture studies in the presence of an unobservable state.
Adaptive phase estimation and its application in EEG analysis of word processing.
Schack, B; Rappelsberger, P; Weiss, S; Möller, E
1999-10-30
Oscillations are a general phenomenon of neuronal activity during information processing. Mostly, widespread networks are involved in brain functioning. In order to investigate network activity coherence analysis turned out to be a useful tool for examining the functional relationship between different cortical areas. This parameter allows the investigation of synchronisation phenomena with regard to defined frequencies or frequency bands. Coherence and cross phase are closely connected spectral parameters. Coherence may be understood as a measure of phase stability. Whereas coherence describes the amount of information transfer, the corresponding phase, from which time delays can be computed, hints at the direction of information transfer. Mental processes can be very brief and coupling between different areas may be highly dynamic. For this reason a two-dimensional approach of adaptive filtering was developed to estimate coherence and phase continuously in time. Statistical and dynamic properties of instantaneous phase are discussed. In order to demonstrate the value of this method for studying higher cognitive processes the method was applied to EEG recorded during word processing. During visual presentation of abstract nouns an information transfer from visual areas to frontal association areas in the Alpha1 frequency band could be verified within the first 400 ms. The Alpha1 band predominately seems to reflect sensory processing and attentional processes. In addition to conventional coherence analyses during word processing phase estimations may yield valuable new insights into the physiological mechanisms during word processing. PMID:10598864
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ja'fari, Ahmad; Kadkhodaie-Ilkhchi, Ali; Sharghi, Yoosef; Ghanavati, Kiarash
2012-02-01
Fractures as the most common and important geological features have a significant share in reservoir fluid flow. Therefore, fracture detection is one of the important steps in fractured reservoir characterization. Different tools and methods are introduced for fracture detection from which formation image logs are considered as the common and effective tools. Due to the economical considerations, image logs are available for a limited number of wells in a hydrocarbon field. In this paper, we suggest a model to estimate fracture density from the conventional well logs using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. Image logs from two wells of the Asmari formation in one of the SW Iranian oil fields are used to verify the results of the model. Statistical data analysis indicates good correlation between fracture density and well log data including sonic, deep resistivity, neutron porosity and bulk density. The results of this study show that there is good agreement (correlation coefficient of 98%) between the measured and neuro-fuzzy estimated fracture density.
Martínez, Miguel A; Valero, Eva M; Hernández-Andrés, Javier
2015-02-01
Digital imaging of natural scenes and optical phenomena present on them (such as shadows, twilights, and crepuscular rays) can be a very challenging task because of the range spanned by the radiances impinging on the capture system. We propose a novel method for estimating the set of exposure times (bracketing set) needed to capture the full dynamic range of a scene with high dynamic range (HDR) content. The proposed method is adaptive to scene content and to any camera response and configuration, and it works on-line since the exposure times are estimated as the capturing process is ongoing. Besides, it requires no a priori information about scene content or radiance values. The resulting bracketing sets are minimal in the default method settings, but the user can set a tolerance for the maximum percentage of pixel population that is underexposed or saturated, which allows for a higher number of shots if a better signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in the HDR scene is desired. This method is based on the use of the camera response function that is needed for building the HDR radiance map by stitching together several differently exposed low dynamic range images of the scene. The use of HDR imaging techniques converts our digital camera into a tool for measuring the relative radiance outgoing from each point of the scene, and for each color channel. This is important for accurate characterization of optical phenomena present in the atmosphere while not suffering any loss of information due to its HDR. We have compared our method with the most similar one developed so far [IEEE Trans. Image Process.17, 1864 (2008)]. Results of the experiments carried out for 30 natural scenes show that our proposed method equals or outperforms the previously developed best approach, with less shots and shorter exposure times, thereby asserting the advantage of being adaptive to scene content for exposure time estimation. As we can also tune the balance between capturing time and the SNR in
APL Revised: Its Uses and Adaptation in States.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Fischer, Joan Keller; And Others
This report on the state level use and application of the 1971-1977 Adult Performance Level (APL) study contains two reports: "Competencies for Adult Basic Education and Diploma Programs: A Summary of Studies and Cross-Reference of Results." by Joan Keller Fischer and "The APL Study: Science, Dissemination, and the Nature of Adult Education," by…
International Students' Psychological and Sociocultural Adaptation in the United States
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Sumer, Seda
2009-01-01
International students constitute an important cohort in the United States (U.S.) colleges and universities. In order for the U.S. colleges and universities to better accommodate the significant number of international students and to recruit them in the future, it is critical to identify factors that influence these students' acculturation and…
Linking Federal, State, and Local Adaptation Strategies in New York (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rosenzweig, C.
2010-12-01
New York City and New York State are leaders in adaptation in the U.S. In 2008 Mayor Bloomberg convened the NYC Climate Change Adaptation Task Force and the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC). Also in 2008, the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) initiated the Integrated Assessment for Effective Climate Change Adaptation Strategies (ClimAID), to provide New York State decision-makers with cutting-edge information on its vulnerability to climate change and to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies informed by both local experience and scientific knowledge. The two efforts are working together to develop effective adaptation strategies across multiple jurisdictions. The New York Task Force consists of approximate 40 city, state, and federal agencies, regional public authorities, and private companies that operate, maintain, or regulate critical infrastructure in the region. The NPCC consisted of climate change and impacts scientists, and legal, insurance, and risk-management experts and served as the technical advisory body for the Mayor and the Task Force on issues related to climate change, impacts, and adaptation. In its 2010 report, the NPCC recommended adoption of a risk-based approach to climate change; creation of a monitoring program to track and analyze key climate change factors, impacts, and adaptation indicators; review of relevant standards and codes; inclusion of multiple layers of government and a wide range of public and private stakeholder experts to build buy-in; and formation of crucial partnerships for development of coordinated adaptation strategies. The task now is for these partnerships to create pilot programs that move adaptation from the planning phase to implementation; urban areas can provide critical ‘test-beds’ for such efforts.
Modeling, State Estimation and Control of Unmanned Helicopters
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lau, Tak Kit
Unmanned helicopters hold both tremendous potential and challenges. Without risking the lives of human pilots, these vehicles exhibit agile movement and the ability to hover and hence open up a wide range of applications in the hazardous situations. Sparing human lives, however, comes at a stiff price for technology. Some of the key difficulties that arise in these challenges are: (i) There are unexplained cross-coupled responses between the control axes on the hingeless helicopters that have puzzled researchers for years. (ii) Most, if not all, navigation on the unmanned helicopters relies on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSSs), which are susceptible to jamming. (iii) It is often necessary to accommodate the re-configurations of the payload or the actuators on the helicopters by repeatedly tuning an autopilot, and that requires intensive human supervision and/or system identification. For the dynamics modeling and analysis, we present a comprehensive review on the helicopter actuation and dynamics, and contributes toward a more complete understanding on the on-axis and off-axis dynamical responses on the helicopter. We focus on a commonly used modeling technique, namely the phase-lag treatment, and employ a first-principles modeling method to justify that (i) why that phase-lag technique is inaccurate, (ii) how we can analyze the helicopter actuation and dynamics more accurately. Moreover, these dynamics modeling and analysis reveal the hard-to-measure but crucial parameters on a helicopter model that require the constant identifications, and hence convey the reasoning of seeking a model-implicit method to solve the state estimation and control problems on the unmanned helicopters. For the state estimation, we present a robust localization method for the unmanned helicopter against the GNSS outage. This method infers position from the acceleration measurement from an inertial measurement unit (IMU). In the core of our method are techniques of the sensor
Estimating Forest Floor Carbon Content in the United States
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Perry, C. H.; Domke, G. M.; Wilson, B. T.; Woodall, C. W.
2013-12-01
The USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program conducts an annual forest inventory which includes measurements of forest floor and soil carbon content. Samples are collected on a systematic nation-wide array of approximately 7,800 plots where each one may represent up to 38,850 ha. Between 10 and 20 percent of these plots are measured on a recurring basis, and soil sampling includes measurements of both the forest floor and mineral soil (0-10 and 10-20 cm). In the United States, the current method of reporting for C stocks to international parties includes mathematical models of forest floor and mineral soil C. Forest type maps are combined with STATSGO soil survey data to generate soil C storage by forest types, but STATSGO possesses known shortcomings, particularly with respect to forest C estimation. STATSGO data are based largely on agricultural soils, so the data consistently underestimate C storage in forest floors. FIA's national-scale inventory data represent an opportunity to significantly improve our modeling and reporting capabilities because data are directly linked to forest cover and other geospatial information. Also, the FIA survey is unique in that sampling is not predicated on land use (e.g., hardwood versus softwoods, old-growth stand versus reverted agriculture) or soil type, so it is an equal probability sample of all forested soils. Given these qualities, FIA's field-observations should be used to evaluate these estimates if not replace them. Here we combined forest floor measurements with other forest inventory observations to impute forest floor C storage across the United States using nonparametric k-nearest neighbor techniques; resampling methods were used to generate estimates of uncertainty. Other predictors of forest floor formation (e.g., climate, topography, and landscape position) will be used to impute these values to satellite pixels for mapping. The end result is an estimate of landscape-level forest floor C
Goodness-of-Fit Tests and Nonparametric Adaptive Estimation for Spike Train Analysis.
Reynaud-Bouret, Patricia; Rivoirard, Vincent; Grammont, Franck; Tuleau-Malot, Christine
2014-01-01
When dealing with classical spike train analysis, the practitioner often performs goodness-of-fit tests to test whether the observed process is a Poisson process, for instance, or if it obeys another type of probabilistic model (Yana et al. in Biophys. J. 46(3):323-330, 1984; Brown et al. in Neural Comput. 14(2):325-346, 2002; Pouzat and Chaffiol in Technical report, http://arxiv.org/abs/arXiv:0909.2785, 2009). In doing so, there is a fundamental plug-in step, where the parameters of the supposed underlying model are estimated. The aim of this article is to show that plug-in has sometimes very undesirable effects. We propose a new method based on subsampling to deal with those plug-in issues in the case of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test of uniformity. The method relies on the plug-in of good estimates of the underlying model that have to be consistent with a controlled rate of convergence. Some nonparametric estimates satisfying those constraints in the Poisson or in the Hawkes framework are highlighted. Moreover, they share adaptive properties that are useful from a practical point of view. We show the performance of those methods on simulated data. We also provide a complete analysis with these tools on single unit activity recorded on a monkey during a sensory-motor task.Electronic Supplementary MaterialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/2190-8567-4-3) contains supplementary material. PMID:24742008
Goodness-of-Fit Tests and Nonparametric Adaptive Estimation for Spike Train Analysis
2014-01-01
When dealing with classical spike train analysis, the practitioner often performs goodness-of-fit tests to test whether the observed process is a Poisson process, for instance, or if it obeys another type of probabilistic model (Yana et al. in Biophys. J. 46(3):323–330, 1984; Brown et al. in Neural Comput. 14(2):325–346, 2002; Pouzat and Chaffiol in Technical report, http://arxiv.org/abs/arXiv:0909.2785, 2009). In doing so, there is a fundamental plug-in step, where the parameters of the supposed underlying model are estimated. The aim of this article is to show that plug-in has sometimes very undesirable effects. We propose a new method based on subsampling to deal with those plug-in issues in the case of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test of uniformity. The method relies on the plug-in of good estimates of the underlying model that have to be consistent with a controlled rate of convergence. Some nonparametric estimates satisfying those constraints in the Poisson or in the Hawkes framework are highlighted. Moreover, they share adaptive properties that are useful from a practical point of view. We show the performance of those methods on simulated data. We also provide a complete analysis with these tools on single unit activity recorded on a monkey during a sensory-motor task. Electronic Supplementary Material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/2190-8567-4-3) contains supplementary material. PMID:24742008
Estimating the costs of landslide damage in the United States
Fleming, Robert W.; Taylor, Fred A.
1980-01-01
Landslide damages are one of the most costly natural disasters in the United States. A recent estimate of the total annual cost of landslide damage is in excess of $1 billion {Schuster, 1978}. The damages can be significantly reduced, however, through the combined action of technical experts, government, and the public. Before they can be expected to take action, local governments need to have an appreciation of costs of damage in their areas of responsibility and of the reductions in losses that can be achieved. Where studies of cost of landslide damages have been conducted, it is apparent that {1} costs to the public and private sectors of our economy due to landslide damage are much larger than anticipated; {2} taxpayers and public officials generally are unaware of the magnitude of the cost, owing perhaps to the lack of any centralization of data; and {3} incomplete records and unavailability of records result in lower reported costs than actually were incurred. The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a method to estimate the cost of landslide damages in regional and local areas and has applied the method in three urban areas and one rural area. Costs are for different periods and are unadjusted for inflation; therefore, strict comparisons of data from different years should be avoided. Estimates of the average annual cost of landslide damage for the urban areas studied are $5,900,000 in the San Francisco Bay area; $4,000,000 in Allegheny County, Pa.; and $5,170,000 in Hamilton County, Ohio. Adjusting these figures for the population of each area, the annual cost of damages per capita are $1.30 in the nine-county San Francisco Bay region; $2.50 in Allegheny County, Pa.; and $5.80 in Hamilton County, Ohio. On the basis of data from other sources, the estimated annual damages on a per capita basis for the City of Los Angeles, Calif., are about $1.60. If the costs were available for the damages from landslides in Los Angeles in 1977-78 and 1979-80, the annual per
Eckhard, Timo; Valero, Eva M; Hernández-Andrés, Javier; Schnitzlein, Markus
2014-02-01
The performance of learning-based spectral estimation is greatly influenced by the set of training samples selected to create the reconstruction model. Training sample selection schemes can be categorized into global and local approaches. Most of the previously proposed global training schemes aim to reduce the number of training samples, or a selection of representative samples, to maintain the generality of the training dataset. This work relates to printed ink reflectance estimation for quality assessment in in-line print inspection. We propose what we believe is a novel global training scheme that models a large population of realistic printable ink reflectances. Based on this dataset, we used a recursive top-down algorithm to reject clusters of training samples that do not enhance the performance of a linear least-square regression (pseudoinverse-based estimation) process. A set of experiments with real camera response data of a 12-channel multispectral camera system illustrate the advantages of this selection scheme over some other state-of-the-art algorithms. For our data, our method of global training sample selection outperforms other methods in terms of estimation quality and, more importantly, can quickly handle large datasets. Furthermore, we show that reflectance modeling is a reasonable, convenient tool to generate large training sets for print inspection applications. PMID:24514188
On the estimation algorithm for adaptive performance optimization of turbofan engines
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Espana, Martin D.
1993-01-01
The performance seeking control (PSC) algorithm is designed to continuously optimize the performance of propulsion systems. The PSC algorithm uses a nominal propulsion system model and estimates, in flight, the engine deviation parameters (EDPs) characterizing the engine deviations with respect to nominal conditions. In practice, because of measurement biases and/or model uncertainties, the estimated EDPs may not reflect the engine's actual off-nominal condition. This factor has a direct impact on the PSC scheme exacerbated by the open-loop character of the algorithm. In this paper, the effects produced by unknown measurement biases over the estimation algorithm are evaluated. This evaluation allows for identification of the most critical measurements for application of the PSC algorithm to an F100 engine. An equivalence relation between the biases and EDPs stems from the analysis; therefore, it is undecided whether the estimated EDPs represent the actual engine deviation or whether they simply reflect the measurement biases. A new algorithm, based on the engine's (steady-state) optimization model, is proposed and tested with flight data. When compared with previous Kalman filter schemes, based on local engine dynamic models, the new algorithm is easier to design and tune and it reduces the computational burden of the onboard computer.
On the estimation algorithm used in adaptive performance optimization of turbofan engines
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Espana, Martin D.; Gilyard, Glenn B.
1993-01-01
The performance seeking control algorithm is designed to continuously optimize the performance of propulsion systems. The performance seeking control algorithm uses a nominal model of the propulsion system and estimates, in flight, the engine deviation parameters characterizing the engine deviations with respect to nominal conditions. In practice, because of measurement biases and/or model uncertainties, the estimated engine deviation parameters may not reflect the engine's actual off-nominal condition. This factor has a necessary impact on the overall performance seeking control scheme exacerbated by the open-loop character of the algorithm. The effects produced by unknown measurement biases over the estimation algorithm are evaluated. This evaluation allows for identification of the most critical measurements for application of the performance seeking control algorithm to an F100 engine. An equivalence relation between the biases and engine deviation parameters stems from an observability study; therefore, it is undecided whether the estimated engine deviation parameters represent the actual engine deviation or whether they simply reflect the measurement biases. A new algorithm, based on the engine's (steady-state) optimization model, is proposed and tested with flight data. When compared with previous Kalman filter schemes, based on local engine dynamic models, the new algorithm is easier to design and tune and it reduces the computational burden of the onboard computer.
Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2000
Hutson, Susan S.; Barber, Nancy L.; Kenny, Joan F.; Linsey, Kristin S.; Lumia, Deborah S.; Maupin, Molly A.
2004-01-01
Estimates of water use in the United States indicate that about 408 billion gallons per day (one thousand million gallons per day, abbreviated Bgal/d) were withdrawn for all uses during 2000. This total has varied less than 3 percent since 1985 as withdrawals have stabilized for the two largest uses?thermoelectric power and irrigation. Fresh ground-water withdrawals (83.3 Bgal/d) during 2000 were 14 percent more than during 1985. Fresh surface-water withdrawals for 2000 were 262 Bgal/d, varying less than 2 percent since 1985. About 195 Bgal/d, or 48 percent of all freshwater and saline-water withdrawals for 2000, were used for thermoelectric power. Most of this water was derived from surface water and used for once-through cooling at power plants. About 52 percent of fresh surface-water withdrawals and about 96 percent of saline-water withdrawals were for thermoelectric-power use. Withdrawals for thermoelectric power have been relatively stable since 1985. Irrigation remained the largest use of freshwater in the United States and totaled 137 Bgal/d for 2000. Since 1950, irrigation has accounted for about 65 percent of total water withdrawals, excluding those for thermoelectric power. Historically, more surface water than ground water has been used for irrigation. However, the percentage of total irrigation withdrawals from ground water has continued to increase, from 23 percent in 1950 to 42 percent in 2000. Total irrigation withdrawals were 2 percent more for 2000 than for 1995, because of a 16-percent increase in ground-water withdrawals and a small decrease in surface-water withdrawals. Irrigated acreage more than doubled between 1950 and 1980, then remained constant before increasing nearly 7 percent between 1995 and 2000. The number of acres irrigated with sprinkler and microirrigation systems has continued to increase and now comprises more than one-half the total irrigated acreage. Public-supply withdrawals were more than 43 Bgal/d for 2000. Public
Post-buckled precompressed (PBP) solid state adaptive rotor
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Barrett, Ronald M.; Barnhart, Ryan
2010-04-01
This paper is centered on a new actuation philosophy executed on an old rotor design. An adaptive rotor employing twist-active piezoelectric root actuators was used as a testbed to investigate the new branch of structural mechanics devoted to low- and zero-net passive stiffness (ZNPS) structures. One of the more common methods to achieve zero net passive stiffnesses in structures is to employ "negative" springs: that is, mechanisms which when combined with the baseline structure null the passive stiffness of the total structural element. This paper outlines the application of such a system via a Post-Buckled Precompression (PBP) technique at the end of a twist-active piezoelectric rotor blade actuator. The basic performance of the system is handily modeled by using laminated plate theory techniques. A dual cantilevered spring system was used to increasingly null the passive stiffness of the root actuator along the feathering axis of the rotor blade. As the precompression levels were increased, it was shown that corresponding blade pitch levels also increased. The PBP cantilever spring system was designed so as to provide a high level of stabilizing pitch-flap coupling and inherent resistance to rotor propeller moments. Experimental testing showed pitch deflections increasing from just 8° peak-to-peak deflections at 650 V/mm field strength to more than 26° at the same field strength with design precompression levels. Dynamic testing showed the corner frequency of the linear system coming down from 63 Hz (3.8/rev) to 53Hz (3.2/rev). Thrust coefficients manipulation levels were shown to increase from 0.01 to 0.028 with increasing precompression levels. The paper concludes with an overall assessment of the actuator design and conclusions on overall feasibility.
Mariño, Inés P; Míguez, Joaquín
2005-11-01
We introduce a numerical approximation method for estimating an unknown parameter of a (primary) chaotic system which is partially observed through a scalar time series. Specifically, we show that the recursive minimization of a suitably designed cost function that involves the dynamic state of a fully observed (secondary) system and the observed time series can lead to the identical synchronization of the two systems and the accurate estimation of the unknown parameter. The salient feature of the proposed technique is that the only external input to the secondary system is the unknown parameter which needs to be adjusted. We present numerical examples for the Lorenz system which show how our algorithm can be considerably faster than some previously proposed methods. PMID:16383795
State estimation Kalman filter using optical processings Noise statistics known
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Jackson, J.; Casasent, D.
1984-01-01
Reference is made to a study by Casasent et al. (1983), which gave a description of a frequency-multiplexed acoustooptic processor and showed how it was capable of performing all the individual operations required in Kalman filtering. The data flow and organization of all required operations however, were not detailed in that study. Consideration is given here to a simpler Kalman filter state estimation problem. Equally spaced time-sampled intervals (k times T sub s, with k the iterative time index) are assumed. It is further assumed that the system noise vector w and the measurement noise vector v are uncorrelated and Gaussian distributed and that the noise statistics (Q and R) and the system model (Phi, Gamma, H) are known. The error covariance matrix P and the extrapolated error covariance matrix M can thus be precomputed and the Kalman gain matrix K sub k can be precomputed and stored for each input time sample.
NIMO's advanced state estimator copes with NUGs and open access
Rutz, W.L. )
1994-12-01
Nonutility generators (NUGs) are placing increasing wheeling demands on the transmission networks of electric utilities and, with the advent of [open quotes]open access,[close quotes] utilities also face increasing competition for their own electricity customers. Niagara Mohawk Power Corp (NIMO) has found surprising new ways to cope with and even profit from these circumstances by exploiting an advance suite of network security applications, which have been in continuous use since 1991. The network package adds advanced state estimation, load flow, and contingency analysis functions to NIMO's energy management system (EMS). According to the utility's managers, the network security functions have had important tangible benefits. These include the ability to: maximize the use of the transmission network; increase reliability by accurately predicting contingencies; determine when expensive reserve units can be safely shut down; and improve the accuracy of loss calculations, thereby permitting full recovery of wheeling losses. 1 fig.
State-Estimation Algorithm Based on Computer Vision
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bayard, David; Brugarolas, Paul
2007-01-01
An algorithm and software to implement the algorithm are being developed as means to estimate the state (that is, the position and velocity) of an autonomous vehicle, relative to a visible nearby target object, to provide guidance for maneuvering the vehicle. In the original intended application, the autonomous vehicle would be a spacecraft and the nearby object would be a small astronomical body (typically, a comet or asteroid) to be explored by the spacecraft. The algorithm could also be used on Earth in analogous applications -- for example, for guiding underwater robots near such objects of interest as sunken ships, mineral deposits, or submerged mines. It is assumed that the robot would be equipped with a vision system that would include one or more electronic cameras, image-digitizing circuitry, and an imagedata- processing computer that would generate feature-recognition data products.
DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis with Sampling From Past States
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vrugt, J. A.; Laloy, E.; Ter Braak, C.
2010-12-01
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have found widespread use in many fields of study to estimate the average properties of complex systems, and for posterior inference in a Bayesian framework. Existing theory and experiments prove convergence of well constructed MCMC schemes to the appropriate limiting distribution under a variety of different conditions. In practice, however this convergence is often observed to be disturbingly slow. This is frequently caused by an inappropriate selection of the proposal distribution used to generate trial moves in the Markov Chain. In a previous paper te{vrugt_1} we have presented the {D}iffe{R}ential {E}volution {A}daptive {M}etropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme that automatically tunes the scale and orientation of the proposal distribution during evolution to the posterior target distribution. In the same paper, detailed balance and ergodicity of DREAM have been proved, and various examples involving nonlinearity, high-dimensionality, and multimodality have shown that DREAM is generally superior to other adaptive MCMC sampling approaches. Standard DREAM requires at least N = d chains to be run in parallel, where d is the dimensionality of the posterior. Unfortunately, running many parallel chains is a potential source of inefficiency, as each individual chain must travel to high density region of the posterior. The lower the number of parallel chains required, the greater the practical applicability of DREAM for computationally demanding problems. This paper extends DREAM with a snooker updater and shows by simulation and real examples that DREAM can work for d up to 50-100 with far fewer parallel chains (e.g. N = 3) by generating jumps using differences of pairs of past states
Link-state-estimation-based transmission power control in wireless body area networks.
Kim, Seungku; Eom, Doo-Seop
2014-07-01
This paper presents a novel transmission power control protocol to extend the lifetime of sensor nodes and to increase the link reliability in wireless body area networks (WBANs). We first experimentally investigate the properties of the link states using the received signal strength indicator (RSSI). We then propose a practical transmission power control protocol based on both short- and long-term link-state estimations. Both the short- and long-term link-state estimations enable the transceiver to adapt the transmission power level and target the RSSI threshold range, respectively, to simultaneously satisfy the requirements of energy efficiency and link reliability. Finally, the performance of the proposed protocol is experimentally evaluated in two experimental scenarios-body posture change and dynamic body motion-and compared with the typical WBAN transmission power control protocols, a real-time reactive scheme, and a dynamic postural position inference mechanism. From the experimental results, it is found that the proposed protocol increases the lifetime of the sensor nodes by a maximum of 9.86% and enhances the link reliability by reducing the packet loss by a maximum of 3.02%. PMID:24107988
A Two-Stage Kalman Filter Approach for Robust and Real-Time Power System State Estimation
Zhang, Jinghe; Welch, Greg; Bishop, Gary; Huang, Zhenyu
2014-04-01
As electricity demand continues to grow and renewable energy increases its penetration in the power grid, realtime state estimation becomes essential for system monitoring and control. Recent development in phasor technology makes it possible with high-speed time-synchronized data provided by Phasor Measurement Units (PMU). In this paper we present a two-stage Kalman filter approach to estimate the static state of voltage magnitudes and phase angles, as well as the dynamic state of generator rotor angles and speeds. Kalman filters achieve optimal performance only when the system noise characteristics have known statistical properties (zero-mean, Gaussian, and spectrally white). However in practice the process and measurement noise models are usually difficult to obtain. Thus we have developed the Adaptive Kalman Filter with Inflatable Noise Variances (AKF with InNoVa), an algorithm that can efficiently identify and reduce the impact of incorrect system modeling and/or erroneous measurements. In stage one, we estimate the static state from raw PMU measurements using the AKF with InNoVa; then in stage two, the estimated static state is fed into an extended Kalman filter to estimate the dynamic state. Simulations demonstrate its robustness to sudden changes of system dynamics and erroneous measurements.
Rainfall Estimation over the Nile Basin using an Adapted Version of the SCaMPR Algorithm
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Habib, E. H.; Kuligowski, R. J.; Elshamy, M. E.; Ali, M. A.; Haile, A.; Amin, D.; Eldin, A.
2011-12-01
Management of Egypt's Aswan High Dam is critical not only for flood control on the Nile but also for ensuring adequate water supplies for most of Egypt since rainfall is scarce over the vast majority of its land area. However, reservoir inflow is driven by rainfall over Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, and several other countries from which routine rain gauge data are sparse. Satellite-derived estimates of rainfall offer a much more detailed and timely set of data to form a basis for decisions on the operation of the dam. A single-channel infrared algorithm is currently in operational use at the Egyptian Nile Forecast Center (NFC). This study reports on the adaptation of a multi-spectral, multi-instrument satellite rainfall estimation algorithm (Self-Calibrating Multivariate Precipitation Retrieval, SCaMPR) for operational application over the Nile Basin. The algorithm uses a set of rainfall predictors from multi-spectral Infrared cloud top observations and self-calibrates them to a set of predictands from Microwave (MW) rain rate estimates. For application over the Nile Basin, the SCaMPR algorithm uses multiple satellite IR channels recently available to NFC from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). Microwave rain rates are acquired from multiple sources such as SSM/I, SSMIS, AMSU, AMSR-E, and TMI. The algorithm has two main steps: rain/no-rain separation using discriminant analysis, and rain rate estimation using stepwise linear regression. We test two modes of algorithm calibration: real-time calibration with continuous updates of coefficients with newly coming MW rain rates, and calibration using static coefficients that are derived from IR-MW data from past observations. We also compare the SCaMPR algorithm to other global-scale satellite rainfall algorithms (e.g., 'Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and other sources' (TRMM-3B42) product, and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center (NOAA
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2011-07-15
... HUMAN SERVICES Administration for Children and Families Estimated Federal Allotments to State... Families (ACF), Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). ACTION: Notification of Estimated Fiscal... Advocacy Systems Formula Grant Programs. SUMMARY: This notice sets forth estimated FY 2012...
Climate adaptation wedges: a case study of premium wine in the western United States
Diffenbaugh, Noah; White, Michael A; Jones, Gregory V; Ashfaq, Moetasim
2011-01-01
Design and implementation of effective climate change adaptation activities requires quantitative assessment of the impacts that are likely to occur without adaptation, as well as the fraction of impact that can be avoided through each activity. Here we present a quantitative framework inspired by the greenhouse gas stabilization wedges of Pacala and Socolow. In our proposed framework, the damage avoided by each adaptation activity creates an 'adaptation wedge' relative to the loss that would occur without that adaptation activity. We use premium winegrape suitability in the western United States as an illustrative case study, focusing on the near-term period that covers the years 2000 39. We find that the projected warming over this period results in the loss of suitable winegrape area throughout much of California, including most counties in the high-value North Coast and Central Coast regions. However, in quantifying adaptation wedges for individual high-value counties, we find that a large adaptation wedge can be captured by increasing the severe heat tolerance, including elimination of the 50% loss projected by the end of the 2030 9 period in the North Coast region, and reduction of the projected loss in the Central Coast region from 30% to less than 15%. Increased severe heat tolerance can capture an even larger adaptation wedge in the Pacific Northwest, including conversion of a projected loss of more than 30% in the Columbia Valley region of Washington to a projected gain of more than 150%. We also find that warming projected over the near-term decades has the potential to alter the quality of winegrapes produced in the western US, and we discuss potential actions that could create adaptation wedges given these potential changes in quality. While the present effort represents an initial exploration of one aspect of one industry, the climate adaptation wedge framework could be used to quantitatively evaluate the opportunities and limits of climate adaptation
Climate adaptation wedges: a case study of premium wine in the western United States
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; White, Michael A.; Jones, Gregory V.; Ashfaq, Moetasim
2011-04-01
Design and implementation of effective climate change adaptation activities requires quantitative assessment of the impacts that are likely to occur without adaptation, as well as the fraction of impact that can be avoided through each activity. Here we present a quantitative framework inspired by the greenhouse gas stabilization wedges of Pacala and Socolow. In our proposed framework, the damage avoided by each adaptation activity creates an 'adaptation wedge' relative to the loss that would occur without that adaptation activity. We use premium winegrape suitability in the western United States as an illustrative case study, focusing on the near-term period that covers the years 2000-39. We find that the projected warming over this period results in the loss of suitable winegrape area throughout much of California, including most counties in the high-value North Coast and Central Coast regions. However, in quantifying adaptation wedges for individual high-value counties, we find that a large adaptation wedge can be captured by increasing the severe heat tolerance, including elimination of the 50% loss projected by the end of the 2030-9 period in the North Coast region, and reduction of the projected loss in the Central Coast region from 30% to less than 15%. Increased severe heat tolerance can capture an even larger adaptation wedge in the Pacific Northwest, including conversion of a projected loss of more than 30% in the Columbia Valley region of Washington to a projected gain of more than 150%. We also find that warming projected over the near-term decades has the potential to alter the quality of winegrapes produced in the western US, and we discuss potential actions that could create adaptation wedges given these potential changes in quality. While the present effort represents an initial exploration of one aspect of one industry, the climate adaptation wedge framework could be used to quantitatively evaluate the opportunities and limits of climate adaptation
Using support vector machines in the multivariate state estimation technique
Zavaljevski, N.; Gross, K.C.
1999-07-01
One approach to validate nuclear power plant (NPP) signals makes use of pattern recognition techniques. This approach often assumes that there is a set of signal prototypes that are continuously compared with the actual sensor signals. These signal prototypes are often computed based on empirical models with little or no knowledge about physical processes. A common problem of all data-based models is their limited ability to make predictions on the basis of available training data. Another problem is related to suboptimal training algorithms. Both of these potential shortcomings with conventional approaches to signal validation and sensor operability validation are successfully resolved by adopting a recently proposed learning paradigm called the support vector machine (SVM). The work presented here is a novel application of SVM for data-based modeling of system state variables in an NPP, integrated with a nonlinear, nonparametric technique called the multivariate state estimation technique (MSET), an algorithm developed at Argonne National Laboratory for a wide range of nuclear plant applications.
Local mapping of detector response for reliable quantum state estimation.
Cooper, Merlin; Karpiński, Michał; Smith, Brian J
2014-01-01
Improved measurement techniques are central to technological development and foundational scientific exploration. Quantum physics relies on detectors sensitive to non-classical features of systems, enabling precise tests of physical laws and quantum-enhanced technologies including precision measurement and secure communications. Accurate detector response calibration for quantum-scale inputs is key to future research and development in these cognate areas. To address this requirement, quantum detector tomography has been recently introduced. However, this technique becomes increasingly challenging as the complexity of the detector response and input space grow in a number of measurement outcomes and required probe states, leading to further demands on experiments and data analysis. Here we present an experimental implementation of a versatile, alternative characterization technique to address many-outcome quantum detectors that limits the input calibration region and does not involve numerical post processing. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, the calibrated detector is subsequently used to estimate non-classical photon number states. PMID:25019300
Tsanas, Athanasios; Zañartu, Matías; Little, Max A.; Fox, Cynthia; Ramig, Lorraine O.; Clifford, Gari D.
2014-01-01
There has been consistent interest among speech signal processing researchers in the accurate estimation of the fundamental frequency (F0) of speech signals. This study examines ten F0 estimation algorithms (some well-established and some proposed more recently) to determine which of these algorithms is, on average, better able to estimate F0 in the sustained vowel /a/. Moreover, a robust method for adaptively weighting the estimates of individual F0 estimation algorithms based on quality and performance measures is proposed, using an adaptive Kalman filter (KF) framework. The accuracy of the algorithms is validated using (a) a database of 117 synthetic realistic phonations obtained using a sophisticated physiological model of speech production and (b) a database of 65 recordings of human phonations where the glottal cycles are calculated from electroglottograph signals. On average, the sawtooth waveform inspired pitch estimator and the nearly defect-free algorithms provided the best individual F0 estimates, and the proposed KF approach resulted in a ∼16% improvement in accuracy over the best single F0 estimation algorithm. These findings may be useful in speech signal processing applications where sustained vowels are used to assess vocal quality, when very accurate F0 estimation is required. PMID:24815269
Tsanas, Athanasios; Zañartu, Matías; Little, Max A; Fox, Cynthia; Ramig, Lorraine O; Clifford, Gari D
2014-05-01
There has been consistent interest among speech signal processing researchers in the accurate estimation of the fundamental frequency (F(0)) of speech signals. This study examines ten F(0) estimation algorithms (some well-established and some proposed more recently) to determine which of these algorithms is, on average, better able to estimate F(0) in the sustained vowel /a/. Moreover, a robust method for adaptively weighting the estimates of individual F(0) estimation algorithms based on quality and performance measures is proposed, using an adaptive Kalman filter (KF) framework. The accuracy of the algorithms is validated using (a) a database of 117 synthetic realistic phonations obtained using a sophisticated physiological model of speech production and (b) a database of 65 recordings of human phonations where the glottal cycles are calculated from electroglottograph signals. On average, the sawtooth waveform inspired pitch estimator and the nearly defect-free algorithms provided the best individual F(0) estimates, and the proposed KF approach resulted in a ∼16% improvement in accuracy over the best single F(0) estimation algorithm. These findings may be useful in speech signal processing applications where sustained vowels are used to assess vocal quality, when very accurate F(0) estimation is required. PMID:24815269
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Teal, Paul D.; Eccles, Craig
2015-04-01
The two most successful methods of estimating the distribution of nuclear magnetic resonance relaxation times from two dimensional data are data compression followed by application of the Butler-Reeds-Dawson algorithm, and a primal-dual interior point method using preconditioned conjugate gradient. Both of these methods have previously been presented using a truncated singular value decomposition of matrices representing the exponential kernel. In this paper it is shown that other matrix factorizations are applicable to each of these algorithms, and that these illustrate the different fundamental principles behind the operation of the algorithms. These are the rank-revealing QR (RRQR) factorization and the LDL factorization with diagonal pivoting, also known as the Bunch-Kaufman-Parlett factorization. It is shown that both algorithms can be improved by adaptation of the truncation as the optimization process progresses, improving the accuracy as the optimal value is approached. A variation on the interior method viz, the use of barrier function instead of the primal-dual approach, is found to offer considerable improvement in terms of speed and reliability. A third type of algorithm, related to the algorithm known as Fast iterative shrinkage-thresholding algorithm, is applied to the problem. This method can be efficiently formulated without the use of a matrix decomposition.
Im, Subin; Min, Soonhong
2013-04-01
Exploratory factor analyses of the Kirton Adaption-Innovation Inventory (KAI), which serves to measure individual cognitive styles, generally indicate three factors: sufficiency of originality, efficiency, and rule/group conformity. In contrast, a 2005 study by Im and Hu using confirmatory factor analysis supported a four-factor structure, dividing the sufficiency of originality dimension into two subdimensions, idea generation and preference for change. This study extends Im and Hu's (2005) study of a derived version of the KAI by providing additional evidence of the four-factor structure. Specifically, the authors test the robustness of the parameter estimates to the violation of normality assumptions in the sample using bootstrap methods. A bias-corrected confidence interval bootstrapping procedure conducted among a sample of 356 participants--members of the Arkansas Household Research Panel, with middle SES and average age of 55.6 yr. (SD = 13.9)--showed that the four-factor model with two subdimensions of sufficiency of originality fits the data significantly better than the three-factor model in non-normality conditions. PMID:23833873
Host adaption to the bacteriophage carrier state of Campylobacter jejuni
Brathwaite, Kelly J.; Siringan, Patcharin; Connerton, Phillippa L.; Connerton, Ian F.
2015-01-01
The carrier state of the foodborne pathogen Campylobacter jejuni represents an alternative life cycle whereby virulent bacteriophages can persist in association with host bacteria without commitment to lysogeny. Host bacteria exhibit significant phenotypic changes that improve their ability to survive extra-intestinal environments, but exhibit growth-phase-dependent impairment in motility. We demonstrate that early exponential phase cultures become synchronised with respect to the non-motile phenotype, which corresponds with a reduction in their ability to adhere to and invade intestinal epithelial cells. Comparative transcriptome analyses (RNA-seq) identify changes in gene expression that account for the observed phenotypes: downregulation of stress response genes hrcA, hspR and per and downregulation of the major flagellin flaA with the chemotactic response signalling genes cheV, cheA and cheW. These changes present mechanisms by which the host and bacteriophage can remain associated without lysis, and the cultures survive extra-intestinal transit. These data provide a basis for understanding a critical link in the ecology of the Campylobacter bacteriophage. PMID:26004283
Sub-second State Estimation Implementation and its Evaluation with Real Data
Chen, Yousu; Rice, Mark J.; Glaesemann, Kurt R.; Huang, Zhenyu
2015-07-31
This paper describes the performance of a parallel state estimation (PSE) tool implemented using advanced computing techniques. The developed code is able to solve state estimation of large-size, practical power systems within one second. Benchmark tests against a commercial tool shows that the computational speed is 10 times faster. Benefits brought by the sub-second state estimation are also discussed.
Chemachema, Mohamed
2012-12-01
A direct adaptive control algorithm, based on neural networks (NN) is presented for a class of single input single output (SISO) nonlinear systems. The proposed controller is implemented without a priori knowledge of the nonlinear systems; and only the output of the system is considered available for measurement. Contrary to the approaches available in the literature, in the proposed controller, the updating signal used in the adaptive laws is an estimate of the control error, which is directly related to the NN weights instead of the tracking error. A fuzzy inference system (FIS) is introduced to get an estimate of the control error. Without any additional control term to the NN adaptive controller, all the signals involved in the closed loop are proven to be exponentially bounded and hence the stability of the system. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. PMID:23037773
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Klinkenberg, S.; Straatemeier, M.; van der Maas, H. L. J.
2011-01-01
In this paper we present a model for computerized adaptive practice and monitoring. This model is used in the Maths Garden, a web-based monitoring system, which includes a challenging web environment for children to practice arithmetic. Using a new item response model based on the Elo (1978) rating system and an explicit scoring rule, estimates of…
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
Our objective was to simulate the effect of child-friendly (CF) adaptations of the National Cancer Institute’s Automated Self-Administered 24-Hour Dietary Recall (ASA24) on estimates of nutrient intake. One hundred twenty children, 8–13 years old, entered their previous day’s intake using the ASA24 ...
Methods for estimating the amount of vernal pool habitat in the northeastern United States
Van Meter, R.; Bailey, L.L.; Grant, E.H.C.
2008-01-01
The loss of small, seasonal wetlands is a major concern for a variety of state, local, and federal organizations in the northeastern U.S. Identifying and estimating the number of vernal pools within a given region is critical to developing long-term conservation and management strategies for these unique habitats and their faunal communities. We use three probabilistic sampling methods (simple random sampling, adaptive cluster sampling, and the dual frame method) to estimate the number of vernal pools on protected, forested lands. Overall, these methods yielded similar values of vernal pool abundance for each study area, and suggest that photographic interpretation alone may grossly underestimate the number of vernal pools in forested habitats. We compare the relative efficiency of each method and discuss ways of improving precision. Acknowledging that the objectives of a study or monitoring program ultimately determine which sampling designs are most appropriate, we recommend that some type of probabilistic sampling method be applied. We view the dual-frame method as an especially useful way of combining incomplete remote sensing methods, such as aerial photograph interpretation, with a probabilistic sample of the entire area of interest to provide more robust estimates of the number of vernal pools and a more representative sample of existing vernal pool habitats.
Estimating the ground-state probability of a quantum simulation with product-state measurements
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yoshimura, Bryce; Freericks, James
2015-10-01
.One of the goals in quantum simulation is to adiabatically generate the ground state of a complicated Hamiltonian by starting with the ground state of a simple Hamiltonian and slowly evolving the system to the complicated one. If the evolution is adiabatic and the initial and final ground states are connected due to having the same symmetry, then the simulation will be successful. But in most experiments, adiabatic simulation is not possible because it would take too long, and the system has some level of diabatic excitation. In this work, we quantify the extent of the diabatic excitation even if we do not know a priori what the complicated ground state is. Since many quantum simulator platforms, like trapped ions, can measure the probabilities to be in a product state, we describe techniques that can employ these simple measurements to estimate the probability of being in the ground state of the system after the diabatic evolution. These techniques do not require one to know any properties about the Hamiltonian itself, nor to calculate its eigenstate properties. All the information is derived by analyzing the product-state measurements as functions of time.
CDC 2011 Estimates of Foodborne Illness in the United States
... Total number of foodborne illnesses each year CDC estimated the number of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths caused by both known and unspecified agents. CDC estimated what proportion of each were foodborne. The first ...
Topographic form stress in the Southern Ocean State Estimate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Masich, Jessica; Chereskin, Teresa K.; Mazloff, Matthew R.
2015-12-01
We diagnose the Southern Ocean momentum balance in a 6 year, eddy-permitting state estimate of the Southern Ocean. We find that 95% of the zonal momentum input via wind stress at the surface is balanced by topographic form stress across ocean ridges, while the remaining 5% is balanced via bottom friction and momentum flux divergences at the northern and southern boundaries of the analysis domain. While the time-mean zonal wind stress field exhibits a relatively uniform spatial distribution, time-mean topographic form stress concentrates at shallow ridges and across the continents that lie within the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) latitudes; nearly 40% of topographic form stress occurs across South America, while the remaining 60% occurs across the major submerged ridges that underlie the ACC. Topographic form stress can be divided into shallow and deep regimes: the shallow regime contributes most of the westward form stress that serves as a momentum sink for the ACC system, while the deep regime consists of strong eastward and westward form stresses that largely cancel in the zonal integral. The time-varying form stress signal, integrated longitudinally and over the ACC latitudes, tracks closely with the wind stress signal integrated over the same domain; at zero lag, 88% of the variance in the 6 year form stress time series can be explained by the wind stress signal, suggesting that changes in the integrated wind stress signal are communicated via rapid barotropic response down to the level of bottom topography.
Jakeman, J. D.; Wildey, T.
2015-01-01
In this paper we present an algorithm for adaptive sparse grid approximations of quantities of interest computed from discretized partial differential equations. We use adjoint-based a posteriori error estimates of the interpolation error in the sparse grid to enhance the sparse grid approximation and to drive adaptivity. We show that utilizing these error estimates provides significantly more accurate functional values for random samples of the sparse grid approximation. We also demonstrate that alternative refinement strategies based upon a posteriori error estimates can lead to further increases in accuracy in the approximation over traditional hierarchical surplus based strategies. Throughout this papermore » we also provide and test a framework for balancing the physical discretization error with the stochastic interpolation error of the enhanced sparse grid approximation.« less
Jakeman, J. D.; Wildey, T.
2015-01-01
In this paper we present an algorithm for adaptive sparse grid approximations of quantities of interest computed from discretized partial differential equations. We use adjoint-based a posteriori error estimates of the interpolation error in the sparse grid to enhance the sparse grid approximation and to drive adaptivity. We show that utilizing these error estimates provides significantly more accurate functional values for random samples of the sparse grid approximation. We also demonstrate that alternative refinement strategies based upon a posteriori error estimates can lead to further increases in accuracy in the approximation over traditional hierarchical surplus based strategies. Throughout this paper we also provide and test a framework for balancing the physical discretization error with the stochastic interpolation error of the enhanced sparse grid approximation.
Jonsen, Ian
2016-01-01
State-space models provide a powerful way to scale up inference of movement behaviours from individuals to populations when the inference is made across multiple individuals. Here, I show how a joint estimation approach that assumes individuals share identical movement parameters can lead to improved inference of behavioural states associated with different movement processes. I use simulated movement paths with known behavioural states to compare estimation error between nonhierarchical and joint estimation formulations of an otherwise identical state-space model. Behavioural state estimation error was strongly affected by the degree of similarity between movement patterns characterising the behavioural states, with less error when movements were strongly dissimilar between states. The joint estimation model improved behavioural state estimation relative to the nonhierarchical model for simulated data with heavy-tailed Argos location errors. When applied to Argos telemetry datasets from 10 Weddell seals, the nonhierarchical model estimated highly uncertain behavioural state switching probabilities for most individuals whereas the joint estimation model yielded substantially less uncertainty. The joint estimation model better resolved the behavioural state sequences across all seals. Hierarchical or joint estimation models should be the preferred choice for estimating behavioural states from animal movement data, especially when location data are error-prone. PMID:26853261
Feasibility Studies of Applying Kalman Filter Techniques to Power System Dynamic State Estimation
Huang, Zhenyu; Schneider, Kevin P.; Nieplocha, Jarek
2007-08-01
Abstract—Lack of dynamic information in power system operations mainly attributes to the static modeling of traditional state estimation, as state estimation is the basis driving many other operations functions. This paper investigates the feasibility of applying Kalman filter techniques to enable the inclusion of dynamic modeling in the state estimation process and the estimation of power system dynamic states. The proposed Kalman-filter-based dynamic state estimation is tested on a multi-machine system with both large and small disturbances. Sensitivity studies of the dynamic state estimation performance with respect to measurement characteristics – sampling rate and noise level – are presented as well. The study results show that there is a promising path forward to implementation the Kalman-filter-based dynamic state estimation with the emerging phasor measurement technologies.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rallo, G.; Provenzano, G.; Manzano-Juárez, J.
2012-04-01
In the Mediterranean environment, where the period of crops growth does not coincide with the rainy season, the crop is subject to water stress periods that may be amplified with improper irrigation management. Agro-hydrological models can be considered an economic and simple tool to optimize irrigation water use, mainly when water represents a limiting factor for crop production. In the last two decades, agro-hydrological physically based models have been developed to simulate mass and energy exchange processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system (Feddes et al., 1978; Bastiaanssen et al., 2007). Unfortunately these models, although very reliable, as a consequence of the high number of required variables and the complex computational analysis, cannot often be used. Therefore, simplified agro-hydrological models may represent an useful and simple tool for practical irrigation scheduling. The main objective of the work is to assess, for an olive orchard, the suitability of FAO-56 spreadsheet agro-hydrological model to estimate a long time series of field transpiration, soil water content and crop water stress dynamic. A modification of the spreadsheet is suggested in order to adapt the simulations to a crop tolerant to water stress. In particular, by implementing a new crop water stress function, actual transpiration fluxes and an ecophysiological stress indicator, i. e. the relative transpiration, are computed in order to evaluate a plant-based irrigation scheduling parameter. Validation of the proposed amendment is carried out by means of measured sap fluxes, measured on different plants and up-scaled to plot level. Spatial and temporal variability of soil water contents in the plot was measured, at several depths, using the Diviner 2000 capacitance probe (Sentek Environmental Technologies, 2000) and TDR-100 (Campbell scientific, Inc.) system. The detailed measurements of soil water content, allowed to explore the high spatial variability of soil water content due
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
Genetic variation for potentially adaptive traits of the key restoration species Sandberg bluegrass (Poa secunda J. Presl) was assessed over the intermountain western United States in relation to source climate. Common gardens were established at two intermountain west sites with progeny from two m...
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Aggarwal, Raj
1987-01-01
The adaptation of a typical corporate strategic planning process to a midwestern state university is discussed. The university found that an ongoing planning process with a yearly cycle offers several advantages not available with prior approaches, and that strategic planning is a culture that takes time before it becomes pervasive in any…
Immigration data and national population estimates for the United States.
Akers, D S
1967-03-01
The immigration component in national population estimates is comparatively small, but it is not insignificant and may indeed be an important source of error. Therefore, it warrants the considera-tion of those concerned with population estimates. The paper considers alternative methods for deriving estimates of immigration from the raw data and presents estimates of net immigration from 1950 to 1965. They are developed from estimates previously published by the Bureau of the Census, but they differ at some points where new data have become available or where a review of the data has led to a change in judgment on how best to use them. The paper also presents suggestions on how immigration statistics might be altered for purposes of improving the estimates.Census data may be used to estimate net immigration by three different methods, but upon analysis each method proves to be inadequate. Hence, data based on visas surrendered at the port of entry must be the principal source of immigration estimates. These data have their limitations because (1) they do not cover net arrivals of citizens from abroad and from Puerto Rico, (2) they do not report departures of aliens, and (3) they do not allocate all immigrants to year of entry. Alien registration and passenger data offer possible alternative estimates.The paper attempts to measure unrecorded immigration, discusses how net arrivals of citizens from abroad and from Puerto Rico may be estimated, and how the age, sex, and race of immigrants may be treated. PMID:21279778
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Balas, Mark; Frost, Susan
2012-01-01
Flexible structures containing a large number of modes can benefit from adaptive control techniques which are well suited to applications that have unknown modeling parameters and poorly known operating conditions. In this paper, we focus on a direct adaptive control approach that has been extended to handle adaptive rejection of persistent disturbances. We extend our adaptive control theory to accommodate troublesome modal subsystems of a plant that might inhibit the adaptive controller. In some cases the plant does not satisfy the requirements of Almost Strict Positive Realness. Instead, there maybe be a modal subsystem that inhibits this property. This section will present new results for our adaptive control theory. We will modify the adaptive controller with a Residual Mode Filter (RMF) to compensate for the troublesome modal subsystem, or the Q modes. Here we present the theory for adaptive controllers modified by RMFs, with attention to the issue of disturbances propagating through the Q modes. We apply the theoretical results to a flexible structure example to illustrate the behavior with and without the residual mode filter.
Predictive Sea State Estimation for Automated Ride Control and Handling - PSSEARCH
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Huntsberger, Terrance L.; Howard, Andrew B.; Aghazarian, Hrand; Rankin, Arturo L.
2012-01-01
PSSEARCH provides predictive sea state estimation, coupled with closed-loop feedback control for automated ride control. It enables a manned or unmanned watercraft to determine the 3D map and sea state conditions in its vicinity in real time. Adaptive path-planning/ replanning software and a control surface management system will then use this information to choose the best settings and heading relative to the seas for the watercraft. PSSEARCH looks ahead and anticipates potential impact of waves on the boat and is used in a tight control loop to adjust trim tabs, course, and throttle settings. The software uses sensory inputs including IMU (Inertial Measurement Unit), stereo, radar, etc. to determine the sea state and wave conditions (wave height, frequency, wave direction) in the vicinity of a rapidly moving boat. This information can then be used to plot a safe path through the oncoming waves. The main issues in determining a safe path for sea surface navigation are: (1) deriving a 3D map of the surrounding environment, (2) extracting hazards and sea state surface state from the imaging sensors/map, and (3) planning a path and control surface settings that avoid the hazards, accomplish the mission navigation goals, and mitigate crew injuries from excessive heave, pitch, and roll accelerations while taking into account the dynamics of the sea surface state. The first part is solved using a wide baseline stereo system, where 3D structure is determined from two calibrated pairs of visual imagers. Once the 3D map is derived, anything above the sea surface is classified as a potential hazard and a surface analysis gives a static snapshot of the waves. Dynamics of the wave features are obtained from a frequency analysis of motion vectors derived from the orientation of the waves during a sequence of inputs. Fusion of the dynamic wave patterns with the 3D maps and the IMU outputs is used for efficient safe path planning.
Wang, Han; Du, Wencai; Xu, Lingwei
2016-01-01
The conventional channel estimation methods based on a preamble for filter bank multicarrier with offset quadrature amplitude modulation (FBMC/OQAM) systems in mobile-to-mobile sensor networks are inefficient. By utilizing the intrinsicsparsity of wireless channels, channel estimation is researched as a compressive sensing (CS) problem to improve the estimation performance. In this paper, an AdaptiveRegularized Compressive Sampling Matching Pursuit (ARCoSaMP) algorithm is proposed. Unlike anterior greedy algorithms, the new algorithm can achieve the accuracy of reconstruction by choosing the support set adaptively, and exploiting the regularization process, which realizes the second selecting of atoms in the support set although the sparsity of the channel is unknown. Simulation results show that CS-based methods obtain significant channel estimation performance improvement compared to that of conventional preamble-based methods. The proposed ARCoSaMP algorithm outperforms the conventional sparse adaptive matching pursuit (SAMP) algorithm. ARCoSaMP provides even more interesting results than the mostadvanced greedy compressive sampling matching pursuit (CoSaMP) algorithm without a prior sparse knowledge of the channel. PMID:27347967
Wang, Han; Du, Wencai; Xu, Lingwei
2016-01-01
The conventional channel estimation methods based on a preamble for filter bank multicarrier with offset quadrature amplitude modulation (FBMC/OQAM) systems in mobile-to-mobile sensor networks are inefficient. By utilizing the intrinsicsparsity of wireless channels, channel estimation is researched as a compressive sensing (CS) problem to improve the estimation performance. In this paper, an AdaptiveRegularized Compressive Sampling Matching Pursuit (ARCoSaMP) algorithm is proposed. Unlike anterior greedy algorithms, the new algorithm can achieve the accuracy of reconstruction by choosing the support set adaptively, and exploiting the regularization process, which realizes the second selecting of atoms in the support set although the sparsity of the channel is unknown. Simulation results show that CS-based methods obtain significant channel estimation performance improvement compared to that of conventional preamble-based methods. The proposed ARCoSaMP algorithm outperforms the conventional sparse adaptive matching pursuit (SAMP) algorithm. ARCoSaMP provides even more interesting results than the mostadvanced greedy compressive sampling matching pursuit (CoSaMP) algorithm without a prior sparse knowledge of the channel. PMID:27347967
Steady-state evoked potentials possibilities for mental-state estimation
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Junker, Andrew M.; Schnurer, John H.; Ingle, David F.; Downey, Craig W.
1988-01-01
The use of the human steady-state evoked potential (SSEP) as a possible measure of mental-state estimation is explored. A method for evoking a visual response to a sum-of-ten sine waves is presented. This approach provides simultaneous multiple frequency measurements of the human EEG to the evoking stimulus in terms of describing functions (gain and phase) and remnant spectra. Ways in which these quantities vary with the addition of performance tasks (manual tracking, grammatical reasoning, and decision making) are presented. Models of the describing function measures can be formulated using systems engineering technology. Relationships between model parameters and performance scores during manual tracking are discussed. Problems of unresponsiveness and lack of repeatability of subject responses are addressed in terms of a need for loop closure of the SSEP. A technique to achieve loop closure using a lock-in amplifier approach is presented. Results of a study designed to test the effectiveness of using feedback to consciously connect humans to their evoked response are presented. Findings indicate that conscious control of EEG is possible. Implications of these results in terms of secondary tasks for mental-state estimation and brain actuated control are addressed.
Selection of Metastatic Breast Cancer Cells Based on Adaptability of Their Metabolic State
Singh, Balraj; Tai, Karen; Madan, Simran; Raythatha, Milan R.; Cady, Amanda M.; Braunlin, Megan; Irving, LaTashia R.; Bajaj, Ankur; Lucci, Anthony
2012-01-01
A small subpopulation of highly adaptable breast cancer cells within a vastly heterogeneous population drives cancer metastasis. Here we describe a function-based strategy for selecting rare cancer cells that are highly adaptable and drive malignancy. Although cancer cells are dependent on certain nutrients, e.g., glucose and glutamine, we hypothesized that the adaptable cancer cells that drive malignancy must possess an adaptable metabolic state and that such cells could be identified using a robust selection strategy. As expected, more than 99.99% of cells died upon glutamine withdrawal from the aggressive breast cancer cell line SUM149. The rare cells that survived and proliferated without glutamine were highly adaptable, as judged by additional robust adaptability assays involving prolonged cell culture without glucose or serum. We were successful in isolating rare metabolically plastic glutamine-independent (Gln-ind) variants from several aggressive breast cancer cell lines that we tested. The Gln-ind cells overexpressed cyclooxygenase-2, an indicator of tumor aggressiveness, and they were able to adjust their glutaminase level to suit glutamine availability. The Gln-ind cells were anchorage-independent, resistant to chemotherapeutic drugs doxorubicin and paclitaxel, and resistant to a high concentration of a COX-2 inhibitor celecoxib. The number of cells being able to adapt to non-availability of glutamine increased upon prior selection of cells for resistance to chemotherapy drugs or resistance to celecoxib, further supporting a linkage between cellular adaptability and therapeutic resistance. Gln-ind cells showed indications of oxidative stress, and they produced cadherin11 and vimentin, indicators of mesenchymal phenotype. Gln-ind cells were more tumorigenic and more metastatic in nude mice than the parental cell line as judged by incidence and time of occurrence. As we decreased the number of cancer cells in xenografts, lung metastasis and then primary
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kalawoun, Jana; Biletska, Krystyna; Suard, Frédéric; Montaru, Maxime
2015-04-01
An efficient estimation of the State of Charge (SoC) of an electrical battery in a real-time context is essential for the development of an intelligent management of the battery energy. The main performance limitations of a SoC estimator originate in limited Battery Management System hardware resources as well as in the battery behavior cross-dependence on the battery chemistry and its cycling conditions. This paper presents a review of methods and models used for SoC estimation and discusses their concept, adaptability and performances in real-time applications. It introduces a novel classification of SoC estimation methods to facilitate the identification of aspects to be improved to create an ideal SoC model. An ideal model is defined as the model that provides a reliable SoC for any battery type and cycling condition, online. The benefits of the machine learning methods in providing an online adaptive SoC estimator are thoroughly detailed. Remaining challenges are specified, through which the characteristics of an ideal model can emerge.
Feischl, Michael; Gantner, Gregor; Praetorius, Dirk
2015-01-01
We consider the Galerkin boundary element method (BEM) for weakly-singular integral equations of the first-kind in 2D. We analyze some residual-type a posteriori error estimator which provides a lower as well as an upper bound for the unknown Galerkin BEM error. The required assumptions are weak and allow for piecewise smooth parametrizations of the boundary, local mesh-refinement, and related standard piecewise polynomials as well as NURBS. In particular, our analysis gives a first contribution to adaptive BEM in the frame of isogeometric analysis (IGABEM), for which we formulate an adaptive algorithm which steers the local mesh-refinement and the multiplicity of the knots. Numerical experiments underline the theoretical findings and show that the proposed adaptive strategy leads to optimal convergence. PMID:26085698
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Jiahao; Klee Barillas, Joaquin; Guenther, Clemens; Danzer, Michael A.
2014-02-01
Battery state monitoring is one of the key techniques in battery management systems e.g. in electric vehicles. An accurate estimation can help to improve the system performance and to prolong the battery remaining useful life. Main challenges for the state estimation for LiFePO4 batteries are the flat characteristic of open-circuit-voltage over battery state of charge (SOC) and the existence of hysteresis phenomena. Classical estimation approaches like Kalman filtering show limitations to handle nonlinear and non-Gaussian error distribution problems. In addition, uncertainties in the battery model parameters must be taken into account to describe the battery degradation. In this paper, a novel model-based method combining a Sequential Monte Carlo filter with adaptive control to determine the cell SOC and its electric impedance is presented. The applicability of this dual estimator is verified using measurement data acquired from a commercial LiFePO4 cell. Due to a better handling of the hysteresis problem, results show the benefits of the proposed method against the estimation with an Extended Kalman filter.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Whitmore, S. A.
1985-01-01
The dynamics model and data sources used to perform air-data reconstruction are discussed, as well as the Kalman filter. The need for adaptive determination of the noise statistics of the process is indicated. The filter innovations are presented as a means of developing the adaptive criterion, which is based on the true mean and covariance of the filter innovations. A method for the numerical approximation of the mean and covariance of the filter innovations is presented. The algorithm as developed is applied to air-data reconstruction for the space shuttle, and data obtained from the third landing are presented. To verify the performance of the adaptive algorithm, the reconstruction is also performed using a constant covariance Kalman filter. The results of the reconstructions are compared, and the adaptive algorithm exhibits better performance.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Whitmore, S. A.
1985-01-01
The dynamics model and data sources used to perform air-data reconstruction are discussed, as well as the Kalman filter. The need for adaptive determination of the noise statistics of the process is indicated. The filter innovations are presented as a means of developing the adaptive criterion, which is based on the true mean and covariance of the filter innovations. A method for the numerical approximation of the mean and covariance of the filter innovations is presented. The algorithm as developed is applied to air-data reconstruction for the Space Shuttle, and data obtained from the third landing are presented. To verify the performance of the adaptive algorithm, the reconstruction is also performed using a constant covariance Kalman filter. The results of the reconstructions are compared, and the adaptive algorithm exhibits better performance.
An adaptive threshold detector and channel parameter estimator for deep space optical communications
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Arabshahi, P.; Mukai, R.; Yan, T. -Y.
2001-01-01
This paper presents a method for optimal adaptive setting of ulse-position-modulation pulse detection thresholds, which minimizes the total probability of error for the dynamically fading optical fee space channel.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hartmann, G.; Stein, G.; Powers, B.
1979-01-01
The flight test performance of an adaptive control system for the F-8 DFBW aircraft is summarized. The adaptive system is based on explicit identification of surface effectiveness parameters which are used for gain scheduling in a command augmentation system. Performance of this control law under various design parameter variations is presented. These include variations in test signal level, sample rate, and identification channel structure. Flight performance closely matches analysis and simulation predictions from previous references.
Estimated Position Replacement Costs for Technician Personnel in a State's Public Facilities
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Zaharia, E. S.; Baumeister, A. A.
1978-01-01
Estimates and fiscal data were gathered from three public institutions for the developmentally disabled to estimate technician replacement costs in the residential service delivery system of a southeastern state. (Author/SBH)
On-line robust nonlinear state estimators for nonlinear bioprocess systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Iratni, A.; Katebi, R.; Mostefai, M.
2012-04-01
This paper presents the design of a new robust nonlinear estimator for estimation of states of nonlinear systems. Two approaches are considered based on the state-dependent Riccati equation formulation and the technique of H-infinity control design. The proposed method differs from other well-known state estimators, because not only nonlinear dynamics but also the robustness is taken into account. The proposed method is implemented and tested on a biological wastewater system. The simulation study compares the Extended Kalman Estimator ( EKE), the State-Dependent Riccati Estimator ( SDRE), and the Extended H-infinity Estimator ( EHE) with a new proposed State Dependent H-infinity Estimator ( SDHE). The results are compared for different weather conditions, i.e. dry, rain and storm, showing a superior performance of the proposed method.
Rankings & Estimates: Rankings of the States, 2005 and Estimates of School Statistics, 2006
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
National Education Association Research Department, 2006
2006-01-01
The data presented in this combined report provide facts about the extent to which local, state, and national governments commit resources to public education. As one might expect in a nation as diverse as the United States--with respect to economics, geography, and politics--the level of commitment to education varies on a state-by-state basis.…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ijima, Yusuke; Nose, Takashi; Tachibana, Makoto; Kobayashi, Takao
In this paper, we propose a rapid model adaptation technique for emotional speech recognition which enables us to extract paralinguistic information as well as linguistic information contained in speech signals. This technique is based on style estimation and style adaptation using a multiple-regression HMM (MRHMM). In the MRHMM, the mean parameters of the output probability density function are controlled by a low-dimensional parameter vector, called a style vector, which corresponds to a set of the explanatory variables of the multiple regression. The recognition process consists of two stages. In the first stage, the style vector that represents the emotional expression category and the intensity of its expressiveness for the input speech is estimated on a sentence-by-sentence basis. Next, the acoustic models are adapted using the estimated style vector, and then standard HMM-based speech recognition is performed in the second stage. We assess the performance of the proposed technique in the recognition of simulated emotional speech uttered by both professional narrators and non-professional speakers.
Estimated use of water in the United States in 2010
Maupin, Molly A.; Kenny, Joan F.; Hutson, Susan S.; Lovelace, John K.; Barber, Nancy L.; Linsey, Kristin S.
2014-01-01
In 2010, more than 50 percent of the total withdrawals in the United States were accounted for by 12 States. California accounted for about 11 percent of the total withdrawals and 10 percent of freshwater withdrawals in the United States, predominantly for irrigation. Texas accounted for about 7 percent of total withdrawals, predominantly for thermoelectric power, irrigation, and public supply. Florida accounted for 18 percent of the total saline-water withdrawals in the United States, mostly from surface-water sources for thermoelectric power. Oklahoma and Texas accounted for about 70 percent of the total saline groundwater withdrawals in the United States, mostly for mining.
An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for the Weighted Least Squares Estimation Method
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.
2011-01-01
State estimation techniques effectively provide mean state estimates. However, the theoretical state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques often suffer from a lack of confidence in their ability to describe the un-certainty in the estimated states. By a reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares algorithm, it is possible to directly arrive at an empirical state error covariance matrix. This proposed empirical state error covariance matrix will contain the effect of all error sources, known or not. Results based on the proposed technique will be presented for a simple, two observer, measurement error only problem.
Tahmasian, Masoud; Rosenzweig, Ivana; Eickhoff, Simon B; Sepehry, Amir A; Laird, Angela R; Fox, Peter T; Morrell, Mary J; Khazaie, Habibolah; Eickhoff, Claudia R
2016-06-01
Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is a common multisystem chronic disorder. Functional and structural neuroimaging has been widely applied in patients with OSA, but these studies have often yielded diverse results. The present quantitative meta-analysis aims to identify consistent patterns of abnormal activation and grey matter loss in OSA across studies. We used PubMed to retrieve task/resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging and voxel-based morphometry studies. Stereotactic data were extracted from fifteen studies, and subsequently tested for convergence using activation likelihood estimation. We found convergent evidence for structural atrophy and functional disturbances in the right basolateral amygdala/hippocampus and the right central insula. Functional characterization of these regions using the BrainMap database suggested associated dysfunction of emotional, sensory, and limbic processes. Assessment of task-based co-activation patterns furthermore indicated that the two regions obtained from the meta-analysis are part of a joint network comprising the anterior insula, posterior-medial frontal cortex and thalamus. Taken together, our findings highlight the role of right amygdala, hippocampus and insula in the abnormal emotional and sensory processing in OSA. PMID:27039344
Macroscopic description of complex adaptive networks coevolving with dynamic node states.
Wiedermann, Marc; Donges, Jonathan F; Heitzig, Jobst; Lucht, Wolfgang; Kurths, Jürgen
2015-05-01
In many real-world complex systems, the time evolution of the network's structure and the dynamic state of its nodes are closely entangled. Here we study opinion formation and imitation on an adaptive complex network which is dependent on the individual dynamic state of each node and vice versa to model the coevolution of renewable resources with the dynamics of harvesting agents on a social network. The adaptive voter model is coupled to a set of identical logistic growth models and we mainly find that, in such systems, the rate of interactions between nodes as well as the adaptive rewiring probability are crucial parameters for controlling the sustainability of the system's equilibrium state. We derive a macroscopic description of the system in terms of ordinary differential equations which provides a general framework to model and quantify the influence of single node dynamics on the macroscopic state of the network. The thus obtained framework is applicable to many fields of study, such as epidemic spreading, opinion formation, or socioecological modeling. PMID:26066206
PID Control Simulation and Kalman Filter State Estimation of HIT-SI Injector Flux Circuit
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kraske, Matthew
In order to implement an optimal modern control system on the HIT-SI injector voltage and flux circuits, it is first necessary to apply state estimation techniques, allowing the physical system to be observed by the controller. To test these estimation methods prior to implementation on the experiment, a simulation must be developed which accurately represents the dynamics and behavior of the experiment. Kalman filter state estimation is implemented using a circuit dynamics model which yields observable state tracking with very low error. Extended Kalman filter estimation is implemented for circuit parameter estimation and for sine wave fitting but requires additional development.
Khuwaja, Salma A; Selwyn, Beatrice J; Mgbere, Osaro; Khuwaja, Alam; Kapadia, Asha; McCurdy, Sheryl; Hsu, Chiehwen E
2013-04-01
This study explored post-migration experiences of recently migrated Pakistani Muslim adolescent females residing in the United States. In-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with thirty Pakistani Muslim adolescent females between the ages of 15 and 18 years living with their families in Houston, Texas. Data obtained from the interviews were evaluated using discourse analysis to identify major reoccurring themes. Participants discussed factors associated with the process of adaptation to the American culture. The results revealed that the main factors associated with adaptation process included positive motivation for migration, family bonding, social support networks, inter-familial communication, aspiration of adolescents to learn other cultures, availability of English-as-second-language programs, participation in community rebuilding activities, and faith practices, English proficiency, peer pressure, and inter-generational conflicts. This study provided much needed information on factors associated with adaptation process of Pakistani Muslim adolescent females in the United States. The results have important implications for improving the adaptation process of this group and offer potential directions for intervention and counseling services. PMID:22940911
Gui, Guan; Chen, Zhang-xin; Xu, Li; Wan, Qun; Huang, Jiyan; Adachi, Fumiyuki
2014-01-01
Channel estimation problem is one of the key technical issues in sparse frequency-selective fading multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) communication systems using orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) scheme. To estimate sparse MIMO channels, sparse invariable step-size normalized least mean square (ISS-NLMS) algorithms were applied to adaptive sparse channel estimation (ACSE). It is well known that step-size is a critical parameter which controls three aspects: algorithm stability, estimation performance, and computational cost. However, traditional methods are vulnerable to cause estimation performance loss because ISS cannot balance the three aspects simultaneously. In this paper, we propose two stable sparse variable step-size NLMS (VSS-NLMS) algorithms to improve the accuracy of MIMO channel estimators. First, ASCE is formulated in MIMO-OFDM systems. Second, different sparse penalties are introduced to VSS-NLMS algorithm for ASCE. In addition, difference between sparse ISS-NLMS algorithms and sparse VSS-NLMS ones is explained and their lower bounds are also derived. At last, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms for ASCE, several selected simulation results are shown to prove that the proposed sparse VSS-NLMS algorithms can achieve better estimation performance than the conventional methods via mean square error (MSE) and bit error rate (BER) metrics. PMID:25089286
Gui, Guan; Chen, Zhang-xin; Xu, Li; Wan, Qun; Huang, Jiyan; Adachi, Fumiyuki
2014-01-01
Channel estimation problem is one of the key technical issues in sparse frequency-selective fading multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) communication systems using orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) scheme. To estimate sparse MIMO channels, sparse invariable step-size normalized least mean square (ISS-NLMS) algorithms were applied to adaptive sparse channel estimation (ACSE). It is well known that step-size is a critical parameter which controls three aspects: algorithm stability, estimation performance, and computational cost. However, traditional methods are vulnerable to cause estimation performance loss because ISS cannot balance the three aspects simultaneously. In this paper, we propose two stable sparse variable step-size NLMS (VSS-NLMS) algorithms to improve the accuracy of MIMO channel estimators. First, ASCE is formulated in MIMO-OFDM systems. Second, different sparse penalties are introduced to VSS-NLMS algorithm for ASCE. In addition, difference between sparse ISS-NLMS algorithms and sparse VSS-NLMS ones is explained and their lower bounds are also derived. At last, to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms for ASCE, several selected simulation results are shown to prove that the proposed sparse VSS-NLMS algorithms can achieve better estimation performance than the conventional methods via mean square error (MSE) and bit error rate (BER) metrics. PMID:25089286
Fu, Zening; Chan, Shing-Chow; Di, Xin; Biswal, Bharat; Zhang, Zhiguo
2014-04-01
Time-varying covariance is an important metric to measure the statistical dependence between non-stationary biological processes. Time-varying covariance is conventionally estimated from short-time data segments within a window having a certain bandwidth, but it is difficult to choose an appropriate bandwidth to estimate covariance with different degrees of non-stationarity. This paper introduces a local polynomial regression (LPR) method to estimate time-varying covariance and performs an asymptotic analysis of the LPR covariance estimator to show that both the estimation bias and variance are functions of the bandwidth and there exists an optimal bandwidth to minimize the mean square error (MSE) locally. A data-driven variable bandwidth selection method, namely the intersection of confidence intervals (ICI), is adopted in LPR for adaptively determining the local optimal bandwidth that minimizes the MSE. Experimental results on simulated signals show that the LPR-ICI method can achieve robust and reliable performance in estimating time-varying covariance with different degrees of variations and under different noise scenarios, making it a powerful tool to study the dynamic relationship between non-stationary biomedical signals. Further, we apply the LPR-ICI method to estimate time-varying covariance of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) signals in a visual task for the inference of dynamic functional brain connectivity. The results show that the LPR-ICI method can effectively capture the transient connectivity patterns from fMRI. PMID:24760946
Multi-Sensor Consensus Estimation of State, Sensor Biases and Unknown Input.
Zhou, Jie; Liang, Yan; Yang, Feng; Xu, Linfeng; Pan, Quan
2016-01-01
This paper addresses the problem of the joint estimation of system state and generalized sensor bias (GSB) under a common unknown input (UI) in the case of bias evolution in a heterogeneous sensor network. First, the equivalent UI-free GSB dynamic model is derived and the local optimal estimates of system state and sensor bias are obtained in each sensor node; Second, based on the state and bias estimates obtained by each node from its neighbors, the UI is estimated via the least-squares method, and then the state estimates are fused via consensus processing; Finally, the multi-sensor bias estimates are further refined based on the consensus estimate of the UI. A numerical example of distributed multi-sensor target tracking is presented to illustrate the proposed filter. PMID:27598156
Unequal State Air Pollution: Adopting and Adapting to State Clean Air Policy
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Glasgow, Derek John
This dissertation looks at the relationship between American subnational governments and clean air policy in three different cases. I investigate the impact of state reduction policies on the emission of Greenhouse emissions, the subnational adoption of Greenhouse Gas tracking and reduction policies, and the impact of Clean Air Act standards on the siting of coal-fired power plants. The major finding is that in both the adoption and business response to these policies, a state's political context can limit its ability to regulate air pollution. These factors contribute to the unequal protection of air quality across the United States.
State Wildlife Action Plans as Tools for Adapting to a Continuously Changing Climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Metivier, D. W.; Yocum, H.; Ray, A. J.
2015-12-01
Public land management plans are potentially powerful policies for building sustainability and adaptive capacity. Land managers are recognizing the need to respond to numerous climate change impacts on natural and human systems. For the first time, in 2015, the federal government required each state to incorporate climate change into their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAP) as a condition for funding. As important land management tools, SWAPs have the potential to guide state agencies in shaping and implementing practices for climate change adaptation. Intended to be revised every ten years, SWAPs can change as conditions and understanding of climate change evolves. This study asks what practices are states using to integrate climate change, and how does this vary between states? To answer this question, we conducted a broad analysis among seven states (CO, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY) and a more in-depth analysis of four states (CO, ND, SD, WY). We use seven key factors that represent best practices for incorporating climate change identified in the literature. These best practices are species prioritization, key habitats, threats, monitoring, partnerships and participation, identification of management options, and implementation of management options. The in-depth analysis focuses on how states are using climate change information for specific habitats addressed in the plans. We find that states are integrating climate change in many different ways, showing varying degrees of sophistication and preparedness. We summarize different practices and highlight opportunities to improve the effectiveness of plans through: communication tools across state lines and stakeholders, explicit targeting of key habitats, enforcement and monitoring progress and success, and conducting vulnerability analyses that incorporate topics beyond climate and include other drivers, trajectories, and implications of historic and future land-use change.
Nenov, Valeriy; Bergsneider, Marvin; Glenn, Thomas C.; Vespa, Paul; Martin, Neil
2007-01-01
Impeded by the rigid skull, assessment of physiological variables of the intracranial system is difficult. A hidden state estimation approach is used in the present work to facilitate the estimation of unobserved variables from available clinical measurements including intracranial pressure (ICP) and cerebral blood flow velocity (CBFV). The estimation algorithm is based on a modified nonlinear intracranial mathematical model, whose parameters are first identified in an offline stage using a nonlinear optimization paradigm. Following the offline stage, an online filtering process is performed using a nonlinear Kalman filter (KF)-like state estimator that is equipped with a new way of deriving the Kalman gain satisfying the physiological constraints on the state variables. The proposed method is then validated by comparing different state estimation methods and input/output (I/O) configurations using simulated data. It is also applied to a set of CBFV, ICP and arterial blood pressure (ABP) signal segments from brain injury patients. The results indicated that the proposed constrained nonlinear KF achieved the best performance among the evaluated state estimators and that the state estimator combined with the I/O configuration that has ICP as the measured output can potentially be used to estimate CBFV continuously. Finally, the state estimator combined with the I/O configuration that has both ICP and CBFV as outputs can potentially estimate the lumped cerebral arterial radii, which are not measurable in a typical clinical environment. PMID:17281533
Estimation of an Examinee's Ability in the Web-Based Computerized Adaptive Testing Program IRT-CAT
Park, Jung-Ho; Park, In-Yong
2006-01-01
We developed a program to estimate an examinee s ability in order to provide freely available access to a web-based computerized adaptive testing (CAT) program. We used PHP and Java Script as the program languages, PostgresSQL as the database management system on an Apache web server and Linux as the operating system. A system which allows for user input and searching within inputted items and creates tests was constructed. We performed an ability estimation on each test based on a Rasch model and 2- or 3-parametric logistic models. Our system provides an algorithm for a web-based CAT, replacing previous personal computer-based ones, and makes it possible to estimate an examinee's ability immediately at the end of test. PMID:19223996
Plitt, Mark; Barnes, Kelly Anne; Wallace, Gregory L; Kenworthy, Lauren; Martin, Alex
2015-12-01
Although typically identified in early childhood, the social communication symptoms and adaptive behavior deficits that are characteristic of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) persist throughout the lifespan. Despite this persistence, even individuals without cooccurring intellectual disability show substantial heterogeneity in outcomes. Previous studies have found various behavioral assessments [such as intelligence quotient (IQ), early language ability, and baseline autistic traits and adaptive behavior scores] to be predictive of outcome, but most of the variance in functioning remains unexplained by such factors. In this study, we investigated to what extent functional brain connectivity measures obtained from resting-state functional connectivity MRI (rs-fcMRI) could predict the variance left unexplained by age and behavior (follow-up latency and baseline autistic traits and adaptive behavior scores) in two measures of outcome--adaptive behaviors and autistic traits at least 1 y postscan (mean follow-up latency = 2 y, 10 mo). We found that connectivity involving the so-called salience network (SN), default-mode network (DMN), and frontoparietal task control network (FPTCN) was highly predictive of future autistic traits and the change in autistic traits and adaptive behavior over the same time period. Furthermore, functional connectivity involving the SN, which is predominantly composed of the anterior insula and the dorsal anterior cingulate, predicted reliable improvement in adaptive behaviors with 100% sensitivity and 70.59% precision. From rs-fcMRI data, our study successfully predicted heterogeneity in outcomes for individuals with ASD that was unaccounted for by simple behavioral metrics and provides unique evidence for networks underlying long-term symptom abatement. PMID:26627261
Plitt, Mark; Barnes, Kelly Anne; Wallace, Gregory L.; Kenworthy, Lauren; Martin, Alex
2015-01-01
Although typically identified in early childhood, the social communication symptoms and adaptive behavior deficits that are characteristic of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) persist throughout the lifespan. Despite this persistence, even individuals without cooccurring intellectual disability show substantial heterogeneity in outcomes. Previous studies have found various behavioral assessments [such as intelligence quotient (IQ), early language ability, and baseline autistic traits and adaptive behavior scores] to be predictive of outcome, but most of the variance in functioning remains unexplained by such factors. In this study, we investigated to what extent functional brain connectivity measures obtained from resting-state functional connectivity MRI (rs-fcMRI) could predict the variance left unexplained by age and behavior (follow-up latency and baseline autistic traits and adaptive behavior scores) in two measures of outcome—adaptive behaviors and autistic traits at least 1 y postscan (mean follow-up latency = 2 y, 10 mo). We found that connectivity involving the so-called salience network (SN), default-mode network (DMN), and frontoparietal task control network (FPTCN) was highly predictive of future autistic traits and the change in autistic traits and adaptive behavior over the same time period. Furthermore, functional connectivity involving the SN, which is predominantly composed of the anterior insula and the dorsal anterior cingulate, predicted reliable improvement in adaptive behaviors with 100% sensitivity and 70.59% precision. From rs-fcMRI data, our study successfully predicted heterogeneity in outcomes for individuals with ASD that was unaccounted for by simple behavioral metrics and provides unique evidence for networks underlying long-term symptom abatement. PMID:26627261
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yang, Jianfei; Poot, Dirk H. J.; Arkesteijn, Georgius A. M.; Caan, Matthan W.; van Vliet, Lucas J.; Vos, Frans M.
2015-03-01
Conventionally, a single rank-2 tensor is used to assess the white matter integrity in diffusion imaging of the human brain. However, a single tensor fails to describe the diffusion in fiber crossings. Although a dual tensor model is able to do so, the low signal-to-noise ratio hampers reliable parameter estimation as the number of parameters is doubled. We present a framework for structure-adaptive tensor field filtering to enhance the statistical analysis in complex fiber structures. In our framework, a tensor model will be fitted based on an automated relevance determination method. Particularly, a single tensor model is applied to voxels in which the data seems to represent a single fiber and a dualtensor model to voxels appearing to contain crossing fibers. To improve the estimation of the model parameters we propose a structure-adaptive tensor filter that is applied to tensors belonging to the same fiber compartment only. It is demonstrated that the structure-adaptive tensor-field filter improves the continuity and regularity of the estimated tensor field. It outperforms an existing denoising approach called LMMSE, which is applied to the diffusion-weighted images. Track-based spatial statistics analysis of fiber-specific FA maps show that the method sustains the detection of more subtle changes in white matter tracts than the classical single-tensor-based analysis. Thus, the filter enhances the applicability of the dual-tensor model in diffusion imaging research. Specifically, the reliable estimation of two tensor diffusion properties facilitates fiber-specific extraction of diffusion features.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Miles, Jeffrey Hilton
2015-01-01
A cross-power spectrum phase based adaptive technique is discussed which iteratively determines the time delay between two digitized signals that are coherent. The adaptive delay algorithm belongs to a class of algorithms that identifies a minimum of a pattern matching function. The algorithm uses a gradient technique to find the value of the adaptive delay that minimizes a cost function based in part on the slope of a linear function that fits the measured cross power spectrum phase and in part on the standard error of the curve fit. This procedure is applied to data from a Honeywell TECH977 static-engine test. Data was obtained using a combustor probe, two turbine exit probes, and far-field microphones. Signals from this instrumentation are used estimate the post-combustion residence time in the combustor. Comparison with previous studies of the post-combustion residence time validates this approach. In addition, the procedure removes the bias due to misalignment of signals in the calculation of coherence which is a first step in applying array processing methods to the magnitude squared coherence data. The procedure also provides an estimate of the cross-spectrum phase-offset.
State energy data report: Consumption estimates, 1960--1988
Not Available
1990-04-30
This volume is an annual report for 1988 by the Energy Information Administration giving energy consumption for each state. A summary is given for the USA as a whole. Consumption is broken down to transportation, industrial, and residential sectors. (FSD)
ESTIMATING AND PROJECTING IMPERVIOUS COVER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
Urban/suburban land use constitutes the fastest growing land use class in the Southeastern United States. Predominant development practices increase impervious surface--areas preventing infiltration of water into the underlying soil. Uncontrolled increase of impervious areas (ro...
ESTIMATING AND PROJECTING IMPERVIOUS COVER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
Urban/suburban land constitutes the fastest growing land use class in the Southeastern United States. Predominant development practices increase impervious surface--areas preventing infiltration of water into the underlying soil. Uncontrolled increase of impervious areas (roads,...
Estimated use of water in the United States in 2005
Kenny, Joan F.; Barber, Nancy L.; Hutson, Susan S.; Linsey, Kristin S.; Lovelace, John K.; Maupin, Molly A.
2009-01-01
About 67 percent of fresh groundwater withdrawals in 2005 were for irrigation, and 18 percent were for public supply. More than half of fresh groundwater withdrawals in the United States in 2005 occurred in six States. In California, Texas, Nebraska, Arkansas, and Idaho, most of the fresh groundwater withdrawals were for irrigation. In Florida, 52 percent of all fresh groundwater withdrawals were for public supply, and 34 percent were for irrigation.
Estimate of Illnesses from Salmonella Enteritidis in Eggs, United States, 2000
Naugle, Alecia Larew; Schlosser, Wayne D.; Hogue, Allan T.; Angulo, Frederick J.; Rose, Jonathon S.; Ebel, Eric D.; Disney, W. Terry; Holt, Kristin G.; Goldman, David P.
2005-01-01
Results from our model suggest that eating Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis–contaminated shell eggs caused 182,060 illnesses in the United States during 2000. Uncertainty about the estimate ranged from 81,535 (5th percentile) to 276,500 illnesses (95th percentile). Our model provides 1 approach for estimating foodborne illness and quantifying estimate uncertainty. PMID:15705332
Climate change adaptation: a panacea for food security in Ondo State, Nigeria
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fatuase, A. I.
2016-05-01
This paper examines the likely perceived causes of climate change, adaptation strategies employed and technical inefficiency of arable crop farmers in Ondo State, Nigeria. Data were obtained from primary sources using a set of structured questionnaire assisted with interview schedule. Multistage sampling technique was used. Data were analyzed using the following: descriptive statistics and the stochastic frontier production function. The findings showed that majority of the respondents (59.1 %) still believed that climate change is a natural phenomenon that is beyond man's power to abate while industrial release, improper sewage disposal, fossil fuel use, deforestation and bush burning were perceived as the most human factors that influence climate change by the category that chose human activities (40.9 %) as the main causes of climate change. The main employed adaptation strategies by the farmers were mixed cropping, planting early matured crop, planting of resistant crops and use of agrochemicals. The arable crop farmers were relatively technically efficient with about 53 % of them having technical efficiency above the average of 0.784 for the study area. The study observed that education, adaptation, perception, climate information and farming experience were statistically significant in decreasing inefficiency of arable crop production. Therefore, advocacy on climate change and its adaptation strategies should be intensified in the study area.
Estimates of Adequate School Spending by State Based on National Average Service Levels.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Miner, Jerry
1983-01-01
Proposes a method for estimating expenditures per student needed to provide educational adequacy in each state. Illustrates the method using U.S., Arkansas, New York, Texas, and Washington State data, covering instruction, special needs, operations and maintenance, administration, and other costs. Estimates ratios of "adequate" to actual spending…
The use of series-solutions for batch and sequential estimation. [of nonlinear spacecraft state
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Feagin, T.; Mikkilineni, R. P.
1975-01-01
Iterative methods for the approximate solution of the nonlinear state estimation problem are investigated in which the solution is retained in the form of a finite series of Chebyshev polynomials. Algorithms are presented which allow the state to be estimated from observational data in either the batch or the sequential form. The advantages of these techniques are discussed.
State estimation of voltage and phase-shift transformer tap settings
Teixeira, P.A.; Brammer, S.R.; Rutz, W.L. ); Merritt, W.C.; Salmonsen, J.L. )
1992-08-01
Traditionally, state estimation algorithms have treated each transformer tap setting (voltage transformer turns ratio or phase-shift transformer angle) as a fixed parameter of the network, even though the real-time measurement may be in error or non-existent. In this paper, a new transformer tap estimation technique is presented which incorporates the function directly into the state estimation algorithm. The procedure provides for turns ratio and phase angle measurements and treats each transformer tap setting as an independent state variable. Test results for an actual 300-bus network demonstrate the tap estimation capability.
Large scale state estimation algorithms for DSN tracking station location determination
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Ellis, J.
1979-01-01
Estimation of precise tracking station locations for deep space navigation is based on combining state estimates derived from a multitude of planetary encounter missions with planet direction information provided by the planetary ephemeris. Procedures for reducing the dimensionality of the station location estimation problem and for analytically correcting estimates for ephemeris updates have been developed. Using Householder transforms the large scale state estimation problem is decomposed into a sequence of dynamically uncoupled problems of lower dimension. The effect of an ephemeris update is shown to be adequately approximated by Brouwer-Clemence Set III perturbations for the earth-moon barycenter and the target planet for each mission.
Device-independent state estimation based on Bell's inequalities
Bardyn, C.-E.; Liew, T. C. H.; Massar, S.; McKague, M.; Scarani, V.
2009-12-15
The only information available about an alleged source of entangled quantum states is the amount S by which the Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt inequality is violated: nothing is known about the nature of the system or the measurements that are performed. We discuss how the quality of the source can be assessed in this black-box scenario, as compared to an ideal source that would produce maximally entangled states (more precisely, any state for which S=2sq root(2)). To this end, we present several inequivalent notions of fidelity, each one related to the use one can make of the source after having assessed it, and we derive quantitative bounds for each of them in terms of the violation S. We also derive a lower bound on the entanglement of the source as a function of S only.
Paul, P.; Bhattacharyya, D.; Turton, R.; Zitney, S.
2012-01-01
An accurate estimation of process state variables not only can increase the effectiveness and reliability of process measurement technology, but can also enhance plant efficiency, improve control system performance, and increase plant availability. Future integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plants with CO2 capture will have to satisfy stricter operational and environmental constraints. To operate the IGCC plant without violating stringent environmental emission standards requires accurate estimation of the relevant process state variables, outputs, and disturbances. Unfortunately, a number of these process variables cannot be measured at all, while some of them can be measured, but with low precision, low reliability, or low signal-to-noise ratio. As a result, accurate estimation of the process variables is of great importance to avoid the inherent difficulties associated with the inaccuracy of the data. Motivated by this, the current paper focuses on the state estimation of an acid gas removal (AGR) process as part of an IGCC plant with CO2 capture. This process has extensive heat and mass integration and therefore is very suitable for testing the efficiency of the designed estimators in the presence of complex interactions between process variables. The traditional Kalman filter (KF) (Kalman, 1960) algorithm has been used as a state estimator which resembles that of a predictor-corrector algorithm for solving numerical problems. In traditional KF implementation, good guesses for the process noise covariance matrix (Q) and the measurement noise covariance matrix (R) are required to obtain satisfactory filter performance. However, in the real world, these matrices are unknown and it is difficult to generate good guesses for them. In this paper, use of an adaptive KF will be presented that adapts Q and R at every time step of the algorithm. Results show that very accurate estimations of the desired process states, outputs or disturbances can be
Kazemipoor, Mahnaz; Hajifaraji, Majid; Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt Wan Mohamed; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Petković, Dalibor; Mat Kiah, Miss Laiha
2015-01-01
This research examines the precision of an adaptive neuro-fuzzy computing technique in estimating the anti-obesity property of a potent medicinal plant in a clinical dietary intervention. Even though a number of mathematical functions such as SPSS analysis have been proposed for modeling the anti-obesity properties estimation in terms of reduction in body mass index (BMI), body fat percentage, and body weight loss, there are still disadvantages of the models like very demanding in terms of calculation time. Since it is a very crucial problem, in this paper a process was constructed which simulates the anti-obesity activities of caraway (Carum carvi) a traditional medicine on obese women with adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference (ANFIS) method. The ANFIS results are compared with the support vector regression (SVR) results using root-mean-square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R(2)). The experimental results show that an improvement in predictive accuracy and capability of generalization can be achieved by the ANFIS approach. The following statistical characteristics are obtained for BMI loss estimation: RMSE=0.032118 and R(2)=0.9964 in ANFIS testing and RMSE=0.47287 and R(2)=0.361 in SVR testing. For fat loss estimation: RMSE=0.23787 and R(2)=0.8599 in ANFIS testing and RMSE=0.32822 and R(2)=0.7814 in SVR testing. For weight loss estimation: RMSE=0.00000035601 and R(2)=1 in ANFIS testing and RMSE=0.17192 and R(2)=0.6607 in SVR testing. Because of that, it can be applied for practical purposes. PMID:25453384
Adult Cigarette Smoking in the United States: Current Estimates
... Report 2015;64(44):1233â€“40 [accessed 2016 Mar 14]. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. ... Office on Smoking and Health, 2014 [accessed 2016 Mar 14]. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention . State ...
Tommasi, C.; May, C.
2010-09-30
The DKL-optimality criterion has been recently proposed for the dual problem of model discrimination and parameter estimation, for the case of two rival models. A sequential version of the DKL-optimality criterion is herein proposed in order to discriminate and efficiently estimate more than two nested non-linear models. Our sequential method is inspired by the procedure of Biswas and Chaudhuri (2002), which is however useful only in the set up of nested linear models.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jones, Reese E.; Mandadapu, Kranthi K.
2012-04-01
We present a rigorous Green-Kubo methodology for calculating transport coefficients based on on-the-fly estimates of: (a) statistical stationarity of the relevant process, and (b) error in the resulting coefficient. The methodology uses time samples efficiently across an ensemble of parallel replicas to yield accurate estimates, which is particularly useful for estimating the thermal conductivity of semi-conductors near their Debye temperatures where the characteristic decay times of the heat flux correlation functions are large. Employing and extending the error analysis of Zwanzig and Ailawadi [Phys. Rev. 182, 280 (1969)], 10.1103/PhysRev.182.280 and Frenkel [in Proceedings of the International School of Physics "Enrico Fermi", Course LXXV (North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam, 1980)] to the integral of correlation, we are able to provide tight theoretical bounds for the error in the estimate of the transport coefficient. To demonstrate the performance of the method, four test cases of increasing computational cost and complexity are presented: the viscosity of Ar and water, and the thermal conductivity of Si and GaN. In addition to producing accurate estimates of the transport coefficients for these materials, this work demonstrates precise agreement of the computed variances in the estimates of the correlation and the transport coefficient with the extended theory based on the assumption that fluctuations follow a Gaussian process. The proposed algorithm in conjunction with the extended theory enables the calculation of transport coefficients with the Green-Kubo method accurately and efficiently.
An adaptive optics system for solid-state laser systems used in inertial confinement fusion
Salmon, J.T.; Bliss, E.S.; Byrd, J.L.; Feldman, M.; Kartz, M.A.; Toeppen, J.S.; Wonterghem, B. Van; Winters, S.E.
1995-09-17
Using adaptive optics the authors have obtained nearly diffraction-limited 5 kJ, 3 nsec output pulses at 1.053 {micro}m from the Beamlet demonstration system for the National Ignition Facility (NIF). The peak Strehl ratio was improved from 0.009 to 0.50, as estimated from measured wavefront errors. They have also measured the relaxation of the thermally induced aberrations in the main beam line over a period of 4.5 hours. Peak-to-valley aberrations range from 6.8 waves at 1.053 {micro}m within 30 minutes after a full system shot to 3.9 waves after 4.5 hours. The adaptive optics system must have enough range to correct accumulated thermal aberrations from several shots in addition to the immediate shot-induced error. Accumulated wavefront errors in the beam line will affect both the design of the adaptive optics system for NIF and the performance of that system.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aslan, Serdar; Taylan Cemgil, Ali; Akın, Ata
2016-08-01
Objective. In this paper, we aimed for the robust estimation of the parameters and states of the hemodynamic model by using blood oxygen level dependent signal. Approach. In the fMRI literature, there are only a few successful methods that are able to make a joint estimation of the states and parameters of the hemodynamic model. In this paper, we implemented a maximum likelihood based method called the particle smoother expectation maximization (PSEM) algorithm for the joint state and parameter estimation. Main results. Former sequential Monte Carlo methods were only reliable in the hemodynamic state estimates. They were claimed to outperform the local linearization (LL) filter and the extended Kalman filter (EKF). The PSEM algorithm is compared with the most successful method called square-root cubature Kalman smoother (SCKS) for both state and parameter estimation. SCKS was found to be better than the dynamic expectation maximization (DEM) algorithm, which was shown to be a better estimator than EKF, LL and particle filters. Significance. PSEM was more accurate than SCKS for both the state and the parameter estimation. Hence, PSEM seems to be the most accurate method for the system identification and state estimation for the hemodynamic model inversion literature. This paper do not compare its results with Tikhonov-regularized Newton—CKF (TNF-CKF), a recent robust method which works in filtering sense.
Xing, Dajun; Yeh, Chun-I; Gordon, James; Shapley, Robert M
2014-01-21
Darkness and brightness are very different perceptually. To understand the neural basis for the visual difference, we studied the dynamical states of populations of neurons in macaque primary visual cortex when a spatially uniform area (8° × 8°) of the visual field alternated between black and white. Darkness evoked sustained nerve-impulse spiking in primary visual cortex neurons, but bright stimuli evoked only a transient response. A peak in the local field potential (LFP) γ band (30-80 Hz) occurred during darkness; white-induced LFP fluctuations were of lower amplitude, peaking at 25 Hz. However, the sustained response to white in the evoked LFP was larger than for black. Together with the results on spiking, the LFP results imply that, throughout the stimulus period, bright fields evoked strong net sustained inhibition. Such cortical brightness adaptation can explain many perceptual phenomena: interocular speeding up of dark adaptation, tonic interocular suppression, and interocular masking. PMID:24398523
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chakraborty, D.; Kato, K.; Lei, R.
The adaptive threshold detection with estimated sequence (ATDES) processor is a practical version of maximum-likelihood-sequence detection (MLSD). A 60-Mbit/s continuous-mode ATDES processor has been developed and tested via an Intelsat IV F-4 and Paumalu earth station link. Experimental data obtained to date from Intelsat V 120-Mbit/s QPSK channel transmission tests and 60-Mbit/s ATDES testing indicate that an improvement of about 2 dB in Eb/No at a BER of 10 to the -6th could be achieved by a 120-Mbit/s burst-mode ATDES processor.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Vo, Thanh Tu; Chen, Xiaopeng; Shen, Weixiang; Kapoor, Ajay
2015-01-01
In this paper, a new charging strategy of lithium-polymer batteries (LiPBs) has been proposed based on the integration of Taguchi method (TM) and state of charge estimation. The TM is applied to search an optimal charging current pattern. An adaptive switching gain sliding mode observer (ASGSMO) is adopted to estimate the SOC which controls and terminates the charging process. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed charging strategy can successfully charge the same types of LiPBs with different capacities and cycle life. The proposed charging strategy also provides much shorter charging time, narrower temperature variation and slightly higher energy efficiency than the equivalent constant current constant voltage charging method.
Load Modeling and State Estimation Methods for Power Distribution Systems: Final Report
Tom McDermott
2010-05-07
The project objective was to provide robust state estimation for distribution systems, comparable to what has been available on transmission systems for decades. This project used an algorithm called Branch Current State Estimation (BCSE), which is more effective than classical methods because it decouples the three phases of a distribution system, and uses branch current instead of node voltage as a state variable, which is a better match to current measurement.
Adaptive State Predictor Based Human Operator Modeling on Longitudinal and Lateral Control
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Trujillo, Anna C.; Gregory, Irene M.; Hempley, Lucas E.
2015-01-01
Control-theoretic modeling of the human operator dynamic behavior in manual control tasks has a long and rich history. In the last two decades, there has been a renewed interest in modeling the human operator. There has also been significant work on techniques used to identify the pilot model of a given structure. The purpose of this research is to attempt to go beyond pilot identification based on collected experimental data and to develop a predictor of pilot behavior. An experiment was conducted to categorize these interactions of the pilot with an adaptive controller compensating during control surface failures. A general linear in-parameter model structure is used to represent a pilot. Three different estimation methods are explored. A gradient descent estimator (GDE), a least squares estimator with exponential forgetting (LSEEF), and a least squares estimator with bounded gain forgetting (LSEBGF) used the experiment data to predict pilot stick input. Previous results have found that the GDE and LSEEF methods are fairly accurate in predicting longitudinal stick input from commanded pitch. This paper discusses the accuracy of each of the three methods - GDE, LSEEF, and LSEBGF - to predict both pilot longitudinal and lateral stick input from the flight director's commanded pitch and bank attitudes.
Adaptive relaxation for the steady-state analysis of Markov chains
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Horton, Graham
1994-01-01
We consider a variant of the well-known Gauss-Seidel method for the solution of Markov chains in steady state. Whereas the standard algorithm visits each state exactly once per iteration in a predetermined order, the alternative approach uses a dynamic strategy. A set of states to be visited is maintained which can grow and shrink as the computation progresses. In this manner, we hope to concentrate the computational work in those areas of the chain in which maximum improvement in the solution can be achieved. We consider the adaptive approach both as a solver in its own right and as a relaxation method within the multi-level algorithm. Experimental results show significant computational savings in both cases.
Distributing Power Grid State Estimation on HPC Clusters A System Architecture Prototype
Liu, Yan; Jiang, Wei; Jin, Shuangshuang; Rice, Mark J.; Chen, Yousu
2012-08-20
The future power grid is expected to further expand with highly distributed energy sources and smart loads. The increased size and complexity lead to increased burden on existing computational resources in energy control centers. Thus the need to perform real-time assessment on such systems entails efficient means to distribute centralized functions such as state estimation in the power system. In this paper, we present our early prototype of a system architecture that connects distributed state estimators individually running parallel programs to solve non-linear estimation procedure. The prototype consists of a middleware and data processing toolkits that allows data exchange in the distributed state estimation. We build a test case based on the IEEE 118 bus system and partition the state estimation of the whole system model to available HPC clusters. The measurement from the testbed demonstrates the low overhead of our solution.
Facial expression analysis for estimating patient's emotional states in RPMS.
Hosseini, H Gholam; Krechowec, Z
2004-01-01
Currently, a range of remote patient monitoring systems (RPMS) are being developed to care for patients at home rather than in the costly hospital environment. These systems allow remote monitoring by health professionals with minimum medical intervention to take place. However, they are still not as effective as one-on-one human interaction. The face and its features can convey patient cognitive and emotional states faster than electrical signals and facial expression can be considered as one of the most powerful features of RPMS. We present image pre-processing and enhancement techniques for face recognition applications. In particular, the project is aimed to improve the performance of RPMS, taking into account the cognitive and emotional state of patients by developing a more human like RPMS. The techniques use the value of grey scale of the images and extract efficient facial features. The extracted information is fed into input layer of an artificial neural network for face identification. On the other hand, the colour images are used by the recognition algorithm to eliminate nonskin coloured background and reduce further processing time. A data base of real images is used for testing the algorithms. PMID:17271985
Online state of health estimation on NMC cells based on predictive analytics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Berecibar, Maitane; Devriendt, Floris; Dubarry, Matthieu; Villarreal, Igor; Omar, Noshin; Verbeke, Wouter; Van Mierlo, Joeri
2016-07-01
Accurate on board state of health estimation is a key battery management system function to provide optimal management of the battery system under control. In this regard, this paper presents an extensive study and comparison of three of commonly used supervised learning methods for state of health estimation in Graphite/Nickel Manganese Cobalt oxide cells. The three methods were based from the study of both incremental capacity and differential voltage curves. According to the ageing evolution of both curves, features were extracted and used as inputs for the estimation techniques. Ordinary Least Squares, Multilayer Perceptron and Support Vector Machine were used as the estimation techniques and accurate results were obtained while requiring a low computational effort. Moreover, this work allows a deep comparison of the different estimation techniques in terms of accuracy, online estimation and BMS applicability. In addition, estimation can be developed by partial charging and/or partial discharging, reducing the required maintenance time.
State Estimation for a Class of Non-Uniform Sampling Systems with Missing Measurements.
Lin, Honglei; Sun, Shuli
2016-01-01
This paper is concerned with the state estimation problem for a class of non-uniform sampling systems with missing measurements where the state is updated uniformly and the measurements are sampled randomly. A new state model is developed to depict the dynamics at the measurement sampling points within a state update period. A non-augmented state estimator dependent on the missing rate is presented by applying an innovation analysis approach. It can provide the state estimates at the state update points and at the measurement sampling points within a state update period. Compared with the augmented method, the proposed algorithm can reduce the computational burden with the increase of the number of measurement samples within a state update period. It can deal with the optimal estimation problem for single and multi-sensor systems in a unified way. To improve the reliability, a distributed suboptimal fusion estimator at the state update points is also given for multi-sensor systems by using the covariance intersection fusion algorithm. The simulation research verifies the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms. PMID:27455282
Noise Estimation and Adaptive Encoding for Asymmetric Quantum Error Correcting Codes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Florjanczyk, Jan; Brun, Todd; Center for Quantum Information Science; Technology Team
We present a technique that improves the performance of asymmetric quantum error correcting codes in the presence of biased qubit noise channels. Our study is motivated by considering what useful information can be learned from the statistics of syndrome measurements in stabilizer quantum error correcting codes (QECC). We consider the case of a qubit dephasing channel where the dephasing axis is unknown and time-varying. We are able to estimate the dephasing angle from the statistics of the standard syndrome measurements used in stabilizer QECC's. We use this estimate to rotate the computational basis of the code in such a way that the most likely type of error is covered by the highest distance of the asymmetric code. In particular, we use the [ [ 15 , 1 , 3 ] ] shortened Reed-Muller code which can correct one phase-flip error but up to three bit-flip errors. In our simulations, we tune the computational basis to match the estimated dephasing axis which in turn leads to a decrease in the probability of a phase-flip error. With a sufficiently accurate estimate of the dephasing axis, our memory's effective error is dominated by the much lower probability of four bit-flips. Aro MURI Grant No. W911NF-11-1-0268.
A Comparison of IRT Proficiency Estimation Methods under Adaptive Multistage Testing
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kim, Sooyeon; Moses, Tim; Yoo, Hanwook
2015-01-01
This inquiry is an investigation of item response theory (IRT) proficiency estimators' accuracy under multistage testing (MST). We chose a two-stage MST design that includes four modules (one at Stage 1, three at Stage 2) and three difficulty paths (low, middle, high). We assembled various two-stage MST panels (i.e., forms) by manipulating two…
Using National Data to Estimate Average Cost Effectiveness of EFNEP Outcomes by State/Territory
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Baral, Ranju; Davis, George C.; Blake, Stephanie; You, Wen; Serrano, Elena
2013-01-01
This report demonstrates how existing national data can be used to first calculate upper limits on the average cost per participant and per outcome per state/territory for the Expanded Food and Nutrition Education Program (EFNEP). These upper limits can then be used by state EFNEP administrators to obtain more precise estimates for their states,…
A Value-Added Estimate of Higher Education Quality of US States
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Zhang, Lei
2009-01-01
States differ substantially in higher education policies. Little is known about the effects of state policies on the performance of public colleges and universities, largely because no clear measures of college quality exist. In this paper, I estimate the average quality of public colleges of US states based on the value-added to individuals'…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Di Lauro, C.; Lattanzi, F.
1982-10-01
A calculation method for the collisionless multiphoton excitation of SF 6 by intense CO 2 laser light up to a chain of parallel nv3, ( n - 1) v3 + v2 + v6 … vibrational-rotational ladders linked by Fermi interaction is described. Spherically adapted effective states suitable to the purpose are defined, and matrix elements for multiphoton excitation in the rotatingwave approximation effective hamiltonian formalism are given in this basis. The method is aimed at the investigation of population transfer between the cited parallel vibrational ladders, and is suitable for computer-calculation programmation.
A Global Ocean State Estimate at the Last Glacial Maximum
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Amrhein, D. E.; Wunsch, C. I.
2015-12-01
Many features of Earth's climate at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 20,000 years ago) remain a mystery, including the role of the ocean circulation in transporting thermal energy, salinity, and other tracers. Most efforts at reconstructing the ocean state during the LGM have relied either upon integrations of general circulation models under prescribed LGM boundary conditions or the interpretation of climate proxy records without explicit physical constraints. Here we describe a global, primitive equation simulation of the LGM ocean with boundary conditions (wind, surface air temperature, and other atmospheric variables) and mixing parameters derived by a least-squares fit of an ocean general circulation model to observations of deep ocean stable isotopes and sea surface temperatures at the LGM.
U.S. Forest Service Leads Climate Change Adaptation in the Western United States
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.
2014-12-01
Effective climate change engagement on public lands is characterized by (1) an enduring science-management partnership, (2) involvement of key stakeholders, (3) consideration of broad landscapes with multiple landowners, (4) science-based, peer-reviewed assessments of sensitivity of natural resources to climate change, (5) adaptation strategies and tactics developed by resource managers, (6) leadership and a workforce motivated to implement climate-smart practices in resource planning and project management. Using this approach, the U.S. Forest Service, in partnership with other organizations, has developed climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans for diverse ecosystems and multiple resources in national forests and other lands in the western United States, although implementation (step 6) has been slow in some cases. Hundreds of meetings, strategies, plans, and panels have focused on climate change adaptation over the past decade, but only direct engagement between scientists and resource managers (less research, less planning, more action) has resulted in substantive outcomes and increased organizational capacity for climate-smart management.
Insect-Inspired Self-Motion Estimation with Dense Flow Fields—An Adaptive Matched Filter Approach
Strübbe, Simon; Stürzl, Wolfgang; Egelhaaf, Martin
2015-01-01
The control of self-motion is a basic, but complex task for both technical and biological systems. Various algorithms have been proposed that allow the estimation of self-motion from the optic flow on the eyes. We show that two apparently very different approaches to solve this task, one technically and one biologically inspired, can be transformed into each other under certain conditions. One estimator of self-motion is based on a matched filter approach; it has been developed to describe the function of motion sensitive cells in the fly brain. The other estimator, the Koenderink and van Doorn (KvD) algorithm, was derived analytically with a technical background. If the distances to the objects in the environment can be assumed to be known, the two estimators are linear and equivalent, but are expressed in different mathematical forms. However, for most situations it is unrealistic to assume that the distances are known. Therefore, the depth structure of the environment needs to be determined in parallel to the self-motion parameters and leads to a non-linear problem. It is shown that the standard least mean square approach that is used by the KvD algorithm leads to a biased estimator. We derive a modification of this algorithm in order to remove the bias and demonstrate its improved performance by means of numerical simulations. For self-motion estimation it is beneficial to have a spherical visual field, similar to many flying insects. We show that in this case the representation of the depth structure of the environment derived from the optic flow can be simplified. Based on this result, we develop an adaptive matched filter approach for systems with a nearly spherical visual field. Then only eight parameters about the environment have to be memorized and updated during self-motion. PMID:26308839
Performance of the JPEG Estimated Spectrum Adaptive Postfilter (JPEG-ESAP) for Low Bit Rates
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Linares, Irving (Inventor)
2016-01-01
Frequency-based, pixel-adaptive filtering using the JPEG-ESAP algorithm for low bit rate JPEG formatted color images may allow for more compressed images while maintaining equivalent quality at a smaller file size or bitrate. For RGB, an image is decomposed into three color bands--red, green, and blue. The JPEG-ESAP algorithm is then applied to each band (e.g., once for red, once for green, and once for blue) and the output of each application of the algorithm is rebuilt as a single color image. The ESAP algorithm may be repeatedly applied to MPEG-2 video frames to reduce their bit rate by a factor of 2 or 3, while maintaining equivalent video quality, both perceptually, and objectively, as recorded in the computed PSNR values.
The Joint Position-Amplitude Formulation for Hurricane State Estimation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ravela, S.; Williams, J.; Emanuel, K.
2008-12-01
Classical formulations of data assimilation, whether sequential, ensemble-based or variational, are amplitude adjustment methods. Such approaches can perform poorly when forecast locations of weather systems are displaced from their observations. Compensating position errors by adjusting amplitudes can produce unacceptably 'distorted' states, adversely affecting analysis, verification and subsequent forecasts. There are many sources of position error. It is non-trivial to decompose position error into constituent sources and yet correcting position errors during assimilation can be essential for operationally predicting strong, localized weather events such as tropical cyclones. We will argue and show that if we assume a perfect world where forecast errors do not have position errors and have a Gaussian uncertainty, then in the real world, the bias or variance induced by position errors is the only reason for suboptimal performance of contemporary assimilation methods. Therefore, we propose a method that accounts for both position and amplitude errors using a variational approach. We show that the objective can be solved for position and amplitude decision variables using stochastic methods, thus corresponding with ensemble data assimilation. We then show that if an Euler-Lagrange approximation is made, can solve the objective nearly as well in two steps. This approach is entirely consistent with contemporary data assimilation practice. In the two-step approach, the first step is field alignment, where the current model state is aligned with observations by adjusting a continuous field of local displacements, subject to certain constraints. The second step is amplitude adjustment, where contemporary assimilation approaches are used. We will then demonstrate several choices of constraints on the displacement field, first starting with fluid-like viscous constraints and then proceeding to a multiscale wavelet representation that allows better balance in the
Real-Time State Estimation in a Flight Simulator Using fNIRS
Gateau, Thibault; Durantin, Gautier; Lancelot, Francois; Scannella, Sebastien; Dehais, Frederic
2015-01-01
Working memory is a key executive function for flying an aircraft. This function is particularly critical when pilots have to recall series of air traffic control instructions. However, working memory limitations may jeopardize flight safety. Since the functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) method seems promising for assessing working memory load, our objective is to implement an on-line fNIRS-based inference system that integrates two complementary estimators. The first estimator is a real-time state estimation MACD-based algorithm dedicated to identifying the pilot’s instantaneous mental state (not-on-task vs. on-task). It does not require a calibration process to perform its estimation. The second estimator is an on-line SVM-based classifier that is able to discriminate task difficulty (low working memory load vs. high working memory load). These two estimators were tested with 19 pilots who were placed in a realistic flight simulator and were asked to recall air traffic control instructions. We found that the estimated pilot’s mental state matched significantly better than chance with the pilot’s real state (62% global accuracy, 58% specificity, and 72% sensitivity). The second estimator, dedicated to assessing single trial working memory loads, led to 80% classification accuracy, 72% specificity, and 89% sensitivity. These two estimators establish reusable blocks for further fNIRS-based passive brain computer interface development. PMID:25816347
Systematic variational method for statistical nonlinear state and parameter estimation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ye, Jingxin; Rey, Daniel; Kadakia, Nirag; Eldridge, Michael; Morone, Uriel I.; Rozdeba, Paul; Abarbanel, Henry D. I.; Quinn, John C.
2015-11-01
In statistical data assimilation one evaluates the conditional expected values, conditioned on measurements, of interesting quantities on the path of a model through observation and prediction windows. This often requires working with very high dimensional integrals in the discrete time descriptions of the observations and model dynamics, which become functional integrals in the continuous-time limit. Two familiar methods for performing these integrals include (1) Monte Carlo calculations and (2) variational approximations using the method of Laplace plus perturbative corrections to the dominant contributions. We attend here to aspects of the Laplace approximation and develop an annealing method for locating the variational path satisfying the Euler-Lagrange equations that comprises the major contribution to the integrals. This begins with the identification of the minimum action path starting with a situation where the model dynamics is totally unresolved in state space, and the consistent minimum of the variational problem is known. We then proceed to slowly increase the model resolution, seeking to remain in the basin of the minimum action path, until a path that gives the dominant contribution to the integral is identified. After a discussion of some general issues, we give examples of the assimilation process for some simple, instructive models from the geophysical literature. Then we explore a slightly richer model of the same type with two distinct time scales. This is followed by a model characterizing the biophysics of individual neurons.
Systematic variational method for statistical nonlinear state and parameter estimation.
Ye, Jingxin; Rey, Daniel; Kadakia, Nirag; Eldridge, Michael; Morone, Uriel I; Rozdeba, Paul; Abarbanel, Henry D I; Quinn, John C
2015-11-01
In statistical data assimilation one evaluates the conditional expected values, conditioned on measurements, of interesting quantities on the path of a model through observation and prediction windows. This often requires working with very high dimensional integrals in the discrete time descriptions of the observations and model dynamics, which become functional integrals in the continuous-time limit. Two familiar methods for performing these integrals include (1) Monte Carlo calculations and (2) variational approximations using the method of Laplace plus perturbative corrections to the dominant contributions. We attend here to aspects of the Laplace approximation and develop an annealing method for locating the variational path satisfying the Euler-Lagrange equations that comprises the major contribution to the integrals. This begins with the identification of the minimum action path starting with a situation where the model dynamics is totally unresolved in state space, and the consistent minimum of the variational problem is known. We then proceed to slowly increase the model resolution, seeking to remain in the basin of the minimum action path, until a path that gives the dominant contribution to the integral is identified. After a discussion of some general issues, we give examples of the assimilation process for some simple, instructive models from the geophysical literature. Then we explore a slightly richer model of the same type with two distinct time scales. This is followed by a model characterizing the biophysics of individual neurons. PMID:26651756
Monitoring hydraulic fractures: state estimation using an extended Kalman filter
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alves Rochinha, Fernando; Peirce, Anthony
2010-02-01
There is considerable interest in using remote elastostatic deformations to identify the evolving geometry of underground fractures that are forced to propagate by the injection of high pressure viscous fluids. These so-called hydraulic fractures are used to increase the permeability in oil and gas reservoirs as well as to pre-fracture ore-bodies for enhanced mineral extraction. The undesirable intrusion of these hydraulic fractures into environmentally sensitive areas or into regions in mines which might pose safety hazards has stimulated the search for techniques to enable the evolving hydraulic fracture geometries to be monitored. Previous approaches to this problem have involved the inversion of the elastostatic data at isolated time steps in the time series provided by tiltmeter measurements of the displacement gradient field at selected points in the elastic medium. At each time step, parameters in simple static models of the fracture (e.g. a single displacement discontinuity) are identified. The approach adopted in this paper is not to regard the sequence of sampled elastostatic data as independent, but rather to treat the data as linked by the coupled elastic-lubrication equations that govern the propagation of the evolving hydraulic fracture. We combine the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) with features of a recently developed implicit numerical scheme to solve the coupled free boundary problem in order to form a novel algorithm to identify the evolving fracture geometry. Numerical experiments demonstrate that, despite excluding significant physical processes in the forward numerical model, the EKF-numerical algorithm is able to compensate for the un-modeled dynamics by using the information fed back from tiltmeter data. Indeed the proposed algorithm is able to provide reasonably faithful estimates of the fracture geometry, which are shown to converge to the actual hydraulic fracture geometry as the number of tiltmeters is increased. Since the location of
Estimation of chirp rates of music-adapted prolate spheroidal atoms using reassignment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mesz, Bruno; Serrano, Eduardo
2007-09-01
We introduce a modified Matching Pursuit algorithm for estimating frequency and frequency slope of FM-modulated music signals. The use of Matching Pursuit with constant frequency atoms provides coarse estimates which could be improved with chirped atoms, more suited in principle to this kind of signals. Application of the reassignment method is suggested by its good localization properties for chirps. We start considering a family of atoms generated by modulation and scaling of a prolate spheroidal wave function. These functions are concentrated in frequency on intervals of a semitone centered at the frequencies of the well-tempered scale. At each stage of the pursuit, we search the atom most correlated with the signal. We then consider the spectral peaks at each frame of the spectrogram and calculate a modified frequency and frequency slope using the derivatives of the reassignment operators; this is then used to estimate the parameters of a cubic interpolation polynomial that models local pitch fluctuations. We apply the method both to synthetic and music signals.
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Boland, J. S., III
1975-01-01
A general simulation program is presented (GSP) involving nonlinear state estimation for space vehicle flight navigation systems. A complete explanation of the iterative guidance mode guidance law, derivation of the dynamics, coordinate frames, and state estimation routines are given so as to fully clarify the assumptions and approximations involved so that simulation results can be placed in their proper perspective. A complete set of computer acronyms and their definitions as well as explanations of the subroutines used in the GSP simulator are included. To facilitate input/output, a complete set of compatable numbers, with units, are included to aid in data development. Format specifications, output data phrase meanings and purposes, and computer card data input are clearly spelled out. A large number of simulation and analytical studies were used to determine the validity of the simulator itself as well as various data runs.
Ward, Zachary J.; Long, Michael W.; Resch, Stephen C.; Gortmaker, Steven L.; Cradock, Angie L.; Giles, Catherine; Hsiao, Amber; Wang, Y. Claire
2016-01-01
Background State-level estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) underestimate the obesity epidemic because they use self-reported height and weight. We describe a novel bias-correction method and produce corrected state-level estimates of obesity and severe obesity. Methods Using non-parametric statistical matching, we adjusted self-reported data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) 2013 (n = 386,795) using measured data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (n = 16,924). We validated our national estimates against NHANES and estimated bias-corrected state-specific prevalence of obesity (BMI≥30) and severe obesity (BMI≥35). We compared these results with previous adjustment methods. Results Compared to NHANES, self-reported BRFSS data underestimated national prevalence of obesity by 16% (28.67% vs 34.01%), and severe obesity by 23% (11.03% vs 14.26%). Our method was not significantly different from NHANES for obesity or severe obesity, while previous methods underestimated both. Only four states had a corrected obesity prevalence below 30%, with four exceeding 40%–in contrast, most states were below 30% in CDC maps. Conclusions Twelve million adults with obesity (including 6.7 million with severe obesity) were misclassified by CDC state-level estimates. Previous bias-correction methods also resulted in underestimates. Accurate state-level estimates are necessary to plan for resources to address the obesity epidemic. PMID:26954566
Communication: Spin-free quantum computational simulations and symmetry adapted states.
Whitfield, James Daniel
2013-07-14
The ideas of digital simulation of quantum systems using a quantum computer parallel the original ideas of numerical simulation using a classical computer. In order for quantum computational simulations to advance to a competitive point, many techniques from classical simulations must be imported into the quantum domain. In this article, we consider the applications of symmetry in the context of quantum simulation. Building upon well established machinery, we propose a form of first quantized simulation that only requires the spatial part of the wave function, thereby allowing spin-free quantum computational simulations. We go further and discuss the preparation of N-body states with specified symmetries based on projection techniques. We consider two simple examples, molecular hydrogen and cyclopropenyl cation, to illustrate the ideas. The methods here are the first to explicitly deal with preparing N-body symmetry-adapted states and open the door for future investigations into group theory, chemistry, and quantum simulation. PMID:23862919
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dalkilic, Turkan Erbay; Apaydin, Aysen
2009-11-01
In a regression analysis, it is assumed that the observations come from a single class in a data cluster and the simple functional relationship between the dependent and independent variables can be expressed using the general model; Y=f(X)+[epsilon]. However; a data cluster may consist of a combination of observations that have different distributions that are derived from different clusters. When faced with issues of estimating a regression model for fuzzy inputs that have been derived from different distributions, this regression model has been termed the [`]switching regression model' and it is expressed with . Here li indicates the class number of each independent variable and p is indicative of the number of independent variables [J.R. Jang, ANFIS: Adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, IEEE Transaction on Systems, Man and Cybernetics 23 (3) (1993) 665-685; M. Michel, Fuzzy clustering and switching regression models using ambiguity and distance rejects, Fuzzy Sets and Systems 122 (2001) 363-399; E.Q. Richard, A new approach to estimating switching regressions, Journal of the American Statistical Association 67 (338) (1972) 306-310]. In this study, adaptive networks have been used to construct a model that has been formed by gathering obtained models. There are methods that suggest the class numbers of independent variables heuristically. Alternatively, in defining the optimal class number of independent variables, the use of suggested validity criterion for fuzzy clustering has been aimed. In the case that independent variables have an exponential distribution, an algorithm has been suggested for defining the unknown parameter of the switching regression model and for obtaining the estimated values after obtaining an optimal membership function, which is suitable for exponential distribution.
Sargent, B. Pierre; Maupin, Molly A.; Hinkle, Stephen R.
2008-01-01
The U.S. Geological Survey National Water Use Information Program compiles estimates of fresh ground-water withdrawals in the United States on a 5-year interval. In the year-2000 compilation, withdrawals were reported from principal aquifers and aquifer systems including two general aquifers - Alluvial and Other aquifers. Withdrawals from a widespread aquifer group - stream-valley aquifers - were not specifically identified in the year-2000 compilation, but they are important sources of ground water. Stream-valley aquifers are alluvial aquifers located in the valley of major streams and rivers. Stream-valley aquifers are long but narrow aquifers that are in direct hydraulic connection with associated streams and limited in extent compared to most principal aquifers. Based in large part on information published in U.S. Geological Survey reports, preliminary analysis of withdrawal data and hydrogeologic and surface-water information indicated areas in the United States where possible stream-valley aquifers were located. Further assessment focused on 24 states and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. Withdrawals reported from Alluvial aquifers in 16 states and withdrawals reported from Other aquifers in 6 states and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico were investigated. Two additional States - Arkansas and New Jersey - were investigated because withdrawals reported from other principal aquifers in these two States may be from stream-valley aquifers. Withdrawals from stream-valley aquifers were identified in 20 States and were about 1,560 Mgal/d (million gallons per day), a rate comparable to withdrawals from the 10 most productive principal aquifers in the United States. Of the 1,560 Mgal/d of withdrawals attributed to stream-valley aquifers, 1,240 Mgal/d were disaggregated from Alluvial aquifers, 150 Mgal/d from glacial sand and gravel aquifers, 116 Mgal/d from Other aquifers, 28.1 Mgal/d from Pennsylvanian aquifers, and 24.9 Mgal/d from the Mississippi River Valley alluvial
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhu, Maohu; Jie, Nanfeng; Jiang, Tianzi
2014-03-01
A reliable and precise classification of schizophrenia is significant for its diagnosis and treatment of schizophrenia. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is a novel tool increasingly used in schizophrenia research. Recent advances in statistical learning theory have led to applying pattern classification algorithms to access the diagnostic value of functional brain networks, discovered from resting state fMRI data. The aim of this study was to propose an adaptive learning algorithm to distinguish schizophrenia patients from normal controls using resting-state functional language network. Furthermore, here the classification of schizophrenia was regarded as a sample selection problem where a sparse subset of samples was chosen from the labeled training set. Using these selected samples, which we call informative vectors, a classifier for the clinic diagnosis of schizophrenia was established. We experimentally demonstrated that the proposed algorithm incorporating resting-state functional language network achieved 83.6% leaveone- out accuracy on resting-state fMRI data of 27 schizophrenia patients and 28 normal controls. In contrast with KNearest- Neighbor (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and l1-norm, our method yielded better classification performance. Moreover, our results suggested that a dysfunction of resting-state functional language network plays an important role in the clinic diagnosis of schizophrenia.
Symmetry-adapted excited states for the T1u⊗hg Jahn-Teller system
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Qiu, Q. C.; Dunn, J. L.; Bates, C. A.
2001-08-01
Jahn-Teller (JT) systems typically contain a set of equivalent-energy wells in the lowest adiabatic potential-energy surface (APES). Quantum-mechanical tunneling between these wells (the dynamic JT effect) must be allowed for by taking appropriate symmetrized combinations of oscillator-type states associated with the wells. It is important to be able to describe the excited states of such systems for a number of reasons. One particular reason is that they are required for the calculation of second-order vibronic reduction factors, which in turn are useful for modeling experimental data using effective Hamiltonians. In this paper, projection-operator techniques are used to obtain general expressions for the symmetry-adapted excited states of the icosahedral T1u⊗hg JT system for the case of D5d minima in the APES. Analytical expressions for the states and their energies for one-phonon excitation are given explicitly. The energies of a selection of states with two-phonon excitations are also obtained and plotted. The results obtained in this paper are applicable to the C-60 molecule.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, Hongjian; Wang, Zidong; Shen, Bo; Alsaadi, Fuad E.
2016-07-01
This paper deals with the robust H∞ state estimation problem for a class of memristive recurrent neural networks with stochastic time-delays. The stochastic time-delays under consideration are governed by a Bernoulli-distributed stochastic sequence. The purpose of the addressed problem is to design the robust state estimator such that the dynamics of the estimation error is exponentially stable in the mean square, and the prescribed ? performance constraint is met. By utilizing the difference inclusion theory and choosing a proper Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional, the existence condition of the desired estimator is derived. Based on it, the explicit expression of the estimator gain is given in terms of the solution to a linear matrix inequality. Finally, a numerical example is employed to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed estimation approach.
An Automated Technique for Estimating Daily Precipitation over the State of Virginia
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Follansbee, W. A.; Chamberlain, L. W., III
1981-01-01
Digital IR and visible imagery obtained from a geostationary satellite located over the equator at 75 deg west latitude were provided by NASA and used to obtain a linear relationship between cloud top temperature and hourly precipitation. Two computer programs written in FORTRAN were used. The first program computes the satellite estimate field from the hourly digital IR imagery. The second program computes the final estimate for the entire state area by comparing five preliminary estimates of 24 hour precipitation with control raingage readings and determining which of the five methods gives the best estimate for the day. The final estimate is then produced by incorporating control gage readings into the winning method. In presenting reliable precipitation estimates for every cell in Virginia in near real time on a daily on going basis, the techniques require on the order of 125 to 150 daily gage readings by dependable, highly motivated observers distributed as uniformly as feasible across the state.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ding, Derui; Shen, Yuxuan; Song, Yan; Wang, Yongxiong
2016-07-01
This paper is concerned with the state estimation problem for a class of discrete time-varying stochastic nonlinear systems with randomly occurring deception attacks. The stochastic nonlinearity described by statistical means which covers several classes of well-studied nonlinearities as special cases is taken into discussion. The randomly occurring deception attacks are modelled by a set of random variables obeying Bernoulli distributions with given probabilities. The purpose of the addressed state estimation problem is to design an estimator with hope to minimize the upper bound for estimation error covariance at each sampling instant. Such an upper bound is minimized by properly designing the estimator gain. The proposed estimation scheme in the form of two Riccati-like difference equations is of a recursive form. Finally, a simulation example is exploited to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.
State Estimates of Adolescent Cigarette Use and Perceptions of Risk of Smoking: 2012 and 2013
... 2015 STATE ESTIMATES OF ADOLESCENT CIGARETTE USE AND PERCEPTIONS OF RISK OF SMOKING: 2012 AND 2013 AUTHORS ... with an inverse association between use and risk perceptions (i.e., the prevalence of use is lower ...
Baker, Nancy T.
2015-01-01
Thelin, G.P., and Stone, W.W., 2013, Estimation of annual agricultural pesticide use for counties of the conterminous United States, 1992–2009: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2013–5009, 54 p.
Lipnikov, Konstantin; Agouzal, Abdellatif; Vassilevski, Yuri
2009-01-01
We present a new technology for generating meshes minimizing the interpolation and discretization errors or their gradients. The key element of this methodology is construction of a space metric from edge-based error estimates. For a mesh with N{sub h} triangles, the error is proportional to N{sub h}{sup -1} and the gradient of error is proportional to N{sub h}{sup -1/2} which are optimal asymptotics. The methodology is verified with numerical experiments.
Dual extended Kalman filter for combined estimation of vehicle state and road friction
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zong, Changfu; Hu, Dan; Zheng, Hongyu
2013-03-01
Vehicle state and tire-road adhesion are of great use and importance to vehicle active safety control systems. However, it is always not easy to obtain the information with high accuracy and low expense. Recently, many estimation methods have been put forward to solve such problems, in which Kalman filter becomes one of the most popular techniques. Nevertheless, the use of complicated model always leads to poor real-time estimation while the role of road friction coefficient is often ignored. For the purpose of enhancing the real time performance of the algorithm and pursuing precise estimation of vehicle states, a model-based estimator is proposed to conduct combined estimation of vehicle states and road friction coefficients. The estimator is designed based on a three-DOF vehicle model coupled with the Highway Safety Research Institute(HSRI) tire model; the dual extended Kalman filter (DEKF) technique is employed, which can be regarded as two extended Kalman filters operating and communicating simultaneously. Effectiveness of the estimation is firstly examined by comparing the outputs of the estimator with the responses of the vehicle model in CarSim under three typical road adhesion conditions(high-friction, low-friction, and joint-friction). On this basis, driving simulator experiments are carried out to further investigate the practical application of the estimator. Numerical results from CarSim and driving simulator both demonstrate that the estimator designed is capable of estimating the vehicle states and road friction coefficient with reasonable accuracy. The DEKF-based estimator proposed provides the essential information for the vehicle active control system with low expense and decent precision, and offers the possibility of real car application in future.
Ashton, R.W.
1991-01-01
Due to the proliferation of power electronic devices in recent years, the amount of harmonic current injected into power systems is on the increase causing undesirable voltage waveform distortion. A new type of versatile Active Power Line Conditioner able to supply a DC load while generating useful harmonics which help reduce the voltage distortion at the connected bus was designed, built and analyzed. The optimum design was obtained by means of an economic study that considers the power loss, the cost of an RFI filter and the effect of the switching rate. An adaptive methodology, requiring only knowledge of the bus voltage distortion, was developed and applied to adjust the amplitudes and phase angles of the injected harmonic currents. This novel approach is based on reducing the voltage Total Harmonic Distortion by minimizing the individual harmonic voltages in an error signal using a gradient method. Through successive adjustments, the difference between the actual bus voltage and the desired bus voltage is minimized. The proposed method can be successfully applied in low and medium voltage networks with multiple nonlinear loads scattered among linear loads.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zheng, Zhihui; Gao, Lei; Xiao, Liping; Zhou, Bin; Gao, Shibo
2015-12-01
Our purpose is to develop a detection algorithm capable of searching for generic interest objects in real time without large training sets and long-time training stages. Instead of the classical sliding window object detection paradigm, we employ an objectness measure to produce a small set of candidate windows efficiently using Binarized Normed Gradients and a Laplacian of Gaussian-like filter. We then extract Locally Adaptive Regression Kernels (LARKs) as descriptors both from a model image and the candidate windows which measure the likeness of a pixel to its surroundings. Using a matrix cosine similarity measure, the algorithm yields a scalar resemblance map, indicating the likelihood of similarity between the model and the candidate windows. By employing nonparametric significance tests and non-maxima suppression, we detect the presence of objects similar to the given model. Experiments show that the proposed detection paradigm can automatically detect the presence, the number, as well as location of similar objects to the given model. The high quality and efficiency of our method make it suitable for real time multi-category object detection applications.
Goto, Ryosuke; Kumakura, Hiroo
2013-05-01
In this study we compared the power arm lengths and mechanical advantages attributed to 12 lower leg muscles across three prosimian species. The origins and insertions of the lower leg muscles in Garnett's galago, the ring-tailed lemur, and the slow loris were quantified and correlated with positional behaviour. The ankle joint of the galago has a speed-oriented mechanical system, in contrast to that of the slow loris, which exhibits more power-oriented mechanics. The lemur ankle joint exhibited intermediate power arm lengths and an intermediate mechanical advantage relative to the other primates. This result suggests that the mechanical differences in the ankle between the galago and the lemur, taxa that exhibit similar locomotory repertoires, reflect a difference in the kinematics and kinetics of leaping (i.e. generalised vs. specialised leapers). In contrast to leaping primates, lorises have developed a more power-oriented mechanical system as a foot adaptation for positional behaviours such as bridging or cantilevering in their arboreal habitat. PMID:23489408
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gong, Wei; Duan, Qingyun; Li, Jianduo; Wang, Chen; Di, Zhenhua; Ye, Aizhong; Miao, Chiyuan; Dai, Yongjiu
2016-03-01
Parameter specification is an important source of uncertainty in large, complex geophysical models. These models generally have multiple model outputs that require multiobjective optimization algorithms. Although such algorithms have long been available, they usually require a large number of model runs and are therefore computationally expensive for large, complex dynamic models. In this paper, a multiobjective adaptive surrogate modeling-based optimization (MO-ASMO) algorithm is introduced that aims to reduce computational cost while maintaining optimization effectiveness. Geophysical dynamic models usually have a prior parameterization scheme derived from the physical processes involved, and our goal is to improve all of the objectives by parameter calibration. In this study, we developed a method for directing the search processes toward the region that can improve all of the objectives simultaneously. We tested the MO-ASMO algorithm against NSGA-II and SUMO with 13 test functions and a land surface model - the Common Land Model (CoLM). The results demonstrated the effectiveness and efficiency of MO-ASMO.
Wu, Jianyong; Zhou, Ying; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S.; Johnson, Brent; Huang, Cheng; Kim, Young-Min; Liu, Yang
2014-01-01
Background: It is anticipated that climate change will influence heat-related mortality in the future. However, the estimation of excess mortality attributable to future heat waves is subject to large uncertainties, which have not been examined under the latest greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Objectives: We estimated the future heat wave impact on mortality in the eastern United States (~ 1,700 counties) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and analyzed the sources of uncertainties. Methods Using dynamically downscaled hourly temperature projections in 2057-2059, we calculated heat wave days and episodes based on four heat wave metrics, and estimated the excess mortality attributable to them. The sources of uncertainty in estimated excess mortality were apportioned using a variance-decomposition method. Results: In the eastern U.S., the excess mortality attributable to heat waves could range from 200-7,807 with the mean of 2,379 persons/year in 2057-2059. The projected average excess mortality in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios was 1,403 and 3,556 persons/year, respectively. Excess mortality would be relatively high in the southern and eastern coastal areas. The major sources of uncertainty in the estimates are relative risk of heat wave mortality, the RCP scenarios, and the heat wave definitions. Conclusions: The estimated mortality risks from future heat waves are likely an order of magnitude higher than its current level and lead to thousands of deaths each year under the RCP8.5 scenario. The substantial spatial variability in estimated county-level heat mortality suggests that effective mitigation and adaptation measures should be developed based on spatially resolved data.
The report documents the development of national- and state- level emissions estimates of radiatively important trace gases (RlTGs). Emissions estimates are presented for the principal anthropogenic sources of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and o...
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Passel, Jeffrey S.; Woodrow, Karen A.
1984-01-01
Compares the 1980 census count of aliens with estimates of the legally resident alien population based on data collected by the Immigration and Naturalization Service in January 1980. Provides estimates for each of the states for selected countries of birth and for age, sex, and period of entry categories. (RDN)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zou, Yuan; Hu, Xiaosong; Ma, Hongmin; Li, Shengbo Eben
2015-01-01
A combined SOC (State Of Charge) and SOH (State Of Health) estimation method over the lifespan of a lithium-ion battery is proposed. First, the SOC dependency of the nominal parameters of a first-order RC (resistor-capacitor) model is determined, and the performance degradation of the nominal model over the battery lifetime is quantified. Second, two Extended Kalman Filters with different time scales are used for combined SOC/SOH monitoring: the SOC is estimated in real-time, and the SOH (the capacity and internal ohmic resistance) is updated offline. The time scale of the SOH estimator is determined based on model accuracy deterioration. The SOC and SOH estimation results are demonstrated by using large amounts of testing data over the battery lifetime.
Development of advanced techniques for rotorcraft state estimation and parameter identification
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hall, W. E., Jr.; Bohn, J. G.; Vincent, J. H.
1980-01-01
An integrated methodology for rotorcraft system identification consists of rotorcraft mathematical modeling, three distinct data processing steps, and a technique for designing inputs to improve the identifiability of the data. These elements are as follows: (1) a Kalman filter smoother algorithm which estimates states and sensor errors from error corrupted data. Gust time histories and statistics may also be estimated; (2) a model structure estimation algorithm for isolating a model which adequately explains the data; (3) a maximum likelihood algorithm for estimating the parameters and estimates for the variance of these estimates; and (4) an input design algorithm, based on a maximum likelihood approach, which provides inputs to improve the accuracy of parameter estimates. Each step is discussed with examples to both flight and simulated data cases.
Blind restoration of retinal images degraded by space-variant blur with adaptive blur estimation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Marrugo, Andrés. G.; Millán, María. S.; Å orel, Michal; Å roubek, Filip
2013-11-01
Retinal images are often degraded with a blur that varies across the field view. Because traditional deblurring algorithms assume the blur to be space-invariant they typically fail in the presence of space-variant blur. In this work we consider the blur to be both unknown and space-variant. To carry out the restoration, we assume that in small regions the space-variant blur can be approximated by a space-invariant point-spread function (PSF). However, instead of deblurring the image on a per-patch basis, we extend individual PSFs by linear interpolation and perform a global restoration. Because the blind estimation of local PSFs may fail we propose a strategy for the identification of valid local PSFs and perform interpolation to obtain the space-variant PSF. The method was tested on artificial and real degraded retinal images. Results show significant improvement in the visibility of subtle details like small blood vessels.
Adaptation of the projection-slice theorem for stock valuation estimation using random Markov fields
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Riasati, Vahid R.
2009-04-01
The Projection-Slice Synthetic Discriminant function filter is utilized with Random Markov Fields, RMF to estimate trends that may be used as prediction for stock valuation through the representation of the market behavior as a hidden Markov Model, HMM. In this work, we utilize a set of progressive and contiguous time segments of a given stock, and treat the set as a two dimensional object that has been represented by its one-d projections. The abstract two-D object is thus an incarnation of N-temporal projections. The HMM is then utilized to generate N+1 projections that maximizes the two-dimensional correlation peak between the data and the HMM-generated stochastic processes. This application of the PSDF provides a method of stock valuation prediction via the market stochastic behavior utilized in the filter.
A hybrid EKF/KF state estimator for a skid-steered ATV
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Javed, Mohammad Azam; Owen, William; Biglarbegian, Mohammad; Melek, William
2014-01-01
This article presents a novel state estimation structure developed for a skid-steered, six-wheeled, ARGO® all-terrain vehicle (ATV). The ARGO ATV is a teleoperated unmanned ground vehicle custom fitted with an inertial measurement unit, wheel encoders and a Geographic Positioning System (GPS). This paper offers the following contributions: (1) a hybrid extended Kalman filter/Kalman filter state estimation technique that estimates the motion, orientation and wheel slips for an ARGO and (2) a virtual GPS point generation algorithm that can be used to adjust position estimates using a GPS sensor. Our field experiments reveal that the proposed estimation structure is able to estimate the position, velocity, orientation and longitudinal slip of the ARGO with a reasonable amount of accuracy. In addition, the proposed estimation structure is well suited for online applications and can also incorporate offline virtual GPS data to further improve the accuracy of the position estimates. The proposed estimation structure is also capable of estimating the longitudinal slip for every wheel of the ARGO.
Survey of State-Level Cost and Benefit Estimates of Renewable Portfolio Standards
Heeter, J.; Barbose, G.; Bird, L.; Weaver, S.; Flores-Espino, F.; Kuskova-Burns, K.; Wiser, R.
2014-05-01
Most renewable portfolio standards (RPS) have five or more years of implementation experience, enabling an assessment of their costs and benefits. Understanding RPS costs and benefits is essential for policymakers evaluating existing RPS policies, assessing the need for modifications, and considering new policies. This study provides an overview of methods used to estimate RPS compliance costs and benefits, based on available data and estimates issued by utilities and regulators. Over the 2010-2012 period, average incremental RPS compliance costs in the United States were equivalent to 0.8% of retail electricity rates, although substantial variation exists around this average, both from year-to-year and across states. The methods used by utilities and regulators to estimate incremental compliance costs vary considerably from state to state and a number of states are currently engaged in processes to refine and standardize their approaches to RPS cost calculation. The report finds that state assessments of RPS benefits have most commonly attempted to quantitatively assess avoided emissions and human health benefits, economic development impacts, and wholesale electricity price savings. Compared to the summary of RPS costs, the summary of RPS benefits is more limited, as relatively few states have undertaken detailed benefits estimates, and then only for a few types of potential policy impacts. In some cases, the same impacts may be captured in the assessment of incremental costs. For these reasons, and because methodologies and level of rigor vary widely, direct comparisons between the estimates of benefits and costs are challenging.
Stenmark, Matthew H.; Cao, Yue; Wang, Hesheng; Jackson, Andrew; Ben-Josef, Edgar; Ten Haken, Randall K.; Lawrence, Theodore S.; Feng, Mary
2014-01-01
Purpose To estimate the limit of functional liver reserve for safe application of hepatic irradiation using changes in indocyanine green, an established assay of liver function. Materials and Methods From 2005–2011, 60 patients undergoing hepatic irradiation were enrolled in a prospective study assessing the plasma retention fraction of indocyanine green at 15-min (ICG-R15) prior to, during (at 60% of planned dose), and after radiotherapy (RT). The limit of functional liver reserve was estimated from the damage fraction of functional liver (DFL) post-RT [1−(ICG-R15pre-RT/ICG-R15post-RT)] where no toxicity was observed using a beta distribution function. Results Of 48 evaluable patients, 3 (6%) developed RILD, all within 2.5 months of completing RT. The mean ICG-R15 for non-RILD patients pre-RT, during-RT and 1-month post-RT was 20.3%(SE 2.6), 22.0%(3.0), and 27.5%(2.8), and for RILD patients was 6.3%(4.3), 10.8%(2.7), and 47.6%(8.8). RILD was observed at post-RT damage fractions of ≥78%. Both DFL assessed by during-RT ICG and MLD predicted for DFL post-RT (p<0.0001). Limiting the post-RT DFL to 50%, predicted a 99% probability of a true complication rate <15%. Conclusion The DFL as assessed by changes in ICG during treatment serves as an early indicator of a patient’s tolerance to hepatic irradiation. PMID:24813090
2013-01-01
Background When mathematical modelling is applied to many different application areas, a common task is the estimation of states and parameters based on measurements. With this kind of inference making, uncertainties in the time when the measurements have been taken are often neglected, but especially in applications taken from the life sciences, this kind of errors can considerably influence the estimation results. As an example in the context of personalized medicine, the model-based assessment of the effectiveness of drugs is becoming to play an important role. Systems biology may help here by providing good pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models. Inference on these systems based on data gained from clinical studies with several patient groups becomes a major challenge. Particle filters are a promising approach to tackle these difficulties but are by itself not ready to handle uncertainties in measurement times. Results In this article, we describe a variant of the standard particle filter (PF) algorithm which allows state and parameter estimation with the inclusion of measurement time uncertainties (MTU). The modified particle filter, which we call MTU-PF, also allows the application of an adaptive stepsize choice in the time-continuous case to avoid degeneracy problems. The modification is based on the model assumption of uncertain measurement times. While the assumption of randomness in the measurements themselves is common, the corresponding measurement times are generally taken as deterministic and exactly known. Especially in cases where the data are gained from measurements on blood or tissue samples, a relatively high uncertainty in the true measurement time seems to be a natural assumption. Our method is appropriate in cases where relatively few data are used from a relatively large number of groups or individuals, which introduce mixed effects in the model. This is a typical setting of clinical studies. We demonstrate the method on a small
Quantum state estimation and feedback control aided by weak measurement reversal
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Uys, Hermann; Du Toit, Pieter; Burd, Shaun; Konrad, Thomas
2015-05-01
We investigate state and frequency estimation of an oscillating qubit using weak POVM measurements. By employing a Fourier transform frequency estimator combined with a strategy of unitary reversal of the weak measurements, it is shown that for sufficiently strong measurements these reversals lead to improved frequency estimation. This approach opens new prospects for feedback control of qubit dynamics. This work was sponsored in part by grants from the South African National Research Foundation (Grant no. 86061) and from the United States Airforce Office of Scientific Research (Award no. FA9550-14-1-0151).
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Karwowski, Damian; Domański, Marek
2016-01-01
An improved context-based adaptive binary arithmetic coding (CABAC) is presented. The idea for the improvement is to use a more accurate mechanism for estimation of symbol probabilities in the standard CABAC algorithm. The authors' proposal of such a mechanism is based on the context-tree weighting technique. In the framework of a high-efficiency video coding (HEVC) video encoder, the improved CABAC allows 0.7% to 4.5% bitrate saving compared to the original CABAC algorithm. The application of the proposed algorithm marginally affects the complexity of HEVC video encoder, but the complexity of video decoder increases by 32% to 38%. In order to decrease the complexity of video decoding, a new tool has been proposed for the improved CABAC that enables scaling of the decoder complexity. Experiments show that this tool gives 5% to 7.5% reduction of the decoding time while still maintaining high efficiency in the data compression.
Garnier, Romain; Odunlami, Marc; Le Bris, Vincent; Bégué, Didier; Baraille, Isabelle; Coulaud, Olivier
2016-05-28
A new variational algorithm called adaptive vibrational configuration interaction (A-VCI) intended for the resolution of the vibrational Schrödinger equation was developed. The main advantage of this approach is to efficiently reduce the dimension of the active space generated into the configuration interaction (CI) process. Here, we assume that the Hamiltonian writes as a sum of products of operators. This adaptive algorithm was developed with the use of three correlated conditions, i.e., a suitable starting space, a criterion for convergence, and a procedure to expand the approximate space. The velocity of the algorithm was increased with the use of a posteriori error estimator (residue) to select the most relevant direction to increase the space. Two examples have been selected for benchmark. In the case of H2CO, we mainly study the performance of A-VCI algorithm: comparison with the variation-perturbation method, choice of the initial space, and residual contributions. For CH3CN, we compare the A-VCI results with a computed reference spectrum using the same potential energy surface and for an active space reduced by about 90%. PMID:27250295
Doppler shift estimation for GNSS reflectometry using a land topography adapted reflection model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Semmling, Maximilian; Peraza, Luis; Falck, Carsten; Gerland, Sebastian; Wickert, Jens
2016-04-01
A GNSS setup with a receiver capable for reflectometry is operated by GFZ at Kongsfjorden (Spitsbergen), 78°54'14''N, 11°52'37''E, 512 m above ellipsoid (WGS-84). This permanent station at the Zeppelin mountain outpost, operated by the Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI), accumulates data since Summer 2013 observing reflections over the fjord and the adjacent land surface. Especially the presence of sea ice over the fjord and snow cover over land are of interest for reflectometry to investigate altimetry and remote sensing applications. The setup contains a GORS (GNSS Occultation Reflectometry Scatterometry) two-frontend receiver, which is based on commercial JAVAD hardware. The receiver is connected to one up-looking and one horizon-looking patch antenna with right-handed and left-handed circular polarization, respectively. Both antennas are installed on the same mount approximately 475 m above the fjord mean sea level. Reflections are observed at low transmitter elevation angles (between 10 and 2°). For these geometries the relative Doppler shift (sea surface reflected relative to direct signal) is almost constant 0.5 to 0.6 Hz and can be calculated with an established reflection model. Rather easily, sea surface reflections are identified in the data and the corresponding reflection points are located. About 55 daily recurring reflection events over the fjord are observed. They form a fan-shaped swath with 3 to 13 km distance around the receiver, corresponding to elevations of 10° to 2°. Also signatures of potential land reflections are found in the data. About 13 daily recurring events extend mainly over land. The potential land signatures have a rather variable Doppler shift between 0.2 to 1Hz. The significant topography of the mountainous surrounding, which varies between sea level and 900 m altitude, prevents the use of established reflection models. A topography adapted reflection model, which considers sloped surface facets, is developed. It incorporates
... 2014 estimates to 2012–2013 estimates). However, youth perceptions of great risk of harm from monthly marijuana ... change. State Estimates of Adolescent Marijuana Use and Perceptions of Risk of Harm From Marijuana Use: 2013 ...
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lin, Tsungpo
Performance engineers face the major challenge in modeling and simulation for the after-market power system due to system degradation and measurement errors. Currently, the majority in power generation industries utilizes the deterministic data matching method to calibrate the model and cascade system degradation, which causes significant calibration uncertainty and also the risk of providing performance guarantees. In this research work, a maximum-likelihood based simultaneous data reconciliation and model calibration (SDRMC) is used for power system modeling and simulation. By replacing the current deterministic data matching with SDRMC one can reduce the calibration uncertainty and mitigate the error propagation to the performance simulation. A modeling and simulation environment for a complex power system with certain degradation has been developed. In this environment multiple data sets are imported when carrying out simultaneous data reconciliation and model calibration. Calibration uncertainties are estimated through error analyses and populated to performance simulation by using principle of error propagation. System degradation is then quantified by performance comparison between the calibrated model and its expected new & clean status. To mitigate smearing effects caused by gross errors, gross error detection (GED) is carried out in two stages. The first stage is a screening stage, in which serious gross errors are eliminated in advance. The GED techniques used in the screening stage are based on multivariate data analysis (MDA), including multivariate data visualization and principal component analysis (PCA). Subtle gross errors are treated at the second stage, in which the serial bias compensation or robust M-estimator is engaged. To achieve a better efficiency in the combined scheme of the least squares based data reconciliation and the GED technique based on hypotheses testing, the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm is utilized as the optimizer. To
Estimate of underflow in the Niobrara River Basin across the Wyoming-Nebraska state line
Babcock, H.M.; Keech, Charles F.
1957-01-01
The purpose of this report is to estimate the amount of ground water flowing across the Wyoming-Nebraska State line within the Niobrara Rive basin and to evaluate the accuracy of that estimate. The approximate effort involed in obtaining additional data to determine the underflow more accurately also is discussed. This report was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Wyoming State Engineer and Director of the Conservation and Survey Division of the University of Nebraska, at the request of the Niobrara River Compact Commission. The following paragraph requesting the work is quoted from the report of the Engineering Subcommittee to the Niobrara River Compact Commission, Ainsworth, Nebr., October 29, 1956: Need for additional data under this item is confined to ground-water data since surface-water data discussions are covered under item 1. It is recommended that the Commission request the Geological Survey in cooperation with each of the three states to develop estimates of ground-water flows across state lines, together with ground-water contour maps extending adequate distanced into each state, such estimates and maps to be based on existing data and qualified by their evaluation of resultant percentage degree of accuracy. In addition they should be requested to furnish an estimate of cost to obtain additional data necessary to bring the estimate to within a more acceptable degree of accuracy as may be desired by the Commission.
Accurate state estimation for a hydraulic actuator via a SDRE nonlinear filter
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Strano, Salvatore; Terzo, Mario
2016-06-01
The state estimation in hydraulic actuators is a fundamental tool for the detection of faults or a valid alternative to the installation of sensors. Due to the hard nonlinearities that characterize the hydraulic actuators, the performances of the linear/linearization based techniques for the state estimation are strongly limited. In order to overcome these limits, this paper focuses on an alternative nonlinear estimation method based on the State-Dependent-Riccati-Equation (SDRE). The technique is able to fully take into account the system nonlinearities and the measurement noise. A fifth order nonlinear model is derived and employed for the synthesis of the estimator. Simulations and experimental tests have been conducted and comparisons with the largely used Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) are illustrated. The results show the effectiveness of the SDRE based technique for applications characterized by not negligible nonlinearities such as dead zone and frictions.
State estimation applications in aircraft flight-data analysis: A user's manual for SMACK
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bach, Ralph E., Jr.
1991-01-01
The evolution in the use of state estimation is traced for the analysis of aircraft flight data. A unifying mathematical framework for state estimation is reviewed, and several examples are presented that illustrate a general approach for checking instrument accuracy and data consistency, and for estimating variables that are difficult to measure. Recent applications associated with research aircraft flight tests and airline turbulence upsets are described. A computer program for aircraft state estimation is discussed in some detail. This document is intended to serve as a user's manual for the program called SMACK (SMoothing for AirCraft Kinematics). The diversity of the applications described emphasizes the potential advantages in using SMACK for flight-data analysis.
Field-Scale soil moisture assimilation: State, parameter or bias estimation?
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
Observations can be used to constrain model parameters (calibration), model state variables (state updating,initialization), model error (bias estimation, error characterization) or any combination thereof. It is studied how soil moisture profile observations are best exploited with Community Land M...
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Iowa State Dept. of Natural Resources, Des Moines.
This document summarizes materials on aquatic education used by state programs. Emphasis is on materials developed by, or adapted for use with, programs in various states and territories. The 234 entries are categorized as activity books, brochures, newsletters, posters, videos, and other materials. Major subjects include fishing, boating and…
One size does not fit all: Adapting mark-recapture and occupancy models for state uncertainty
Kendall, W.L.
2009-01-01
Multistate capture?recapture models continue to be employed with greater frequency to test hypotheses about metapopulation dynamics and life history, and more recently disease dynamics. In recent years efforts have begun to adjust these models for cases where there is uncertainty about an animal?s state upon capture. These efforts can be categorized into models that permit misclassification between two states to occur in either direction or one direction, where state is certain for a subset of individuals or is always uncertain, and where estimation is based on one sampling occasion per period of interest or multiple sampling occasions per period. State uncertainty also arises in modeling patch occupancy dynamics. I consider several case studies involving bird and marine mammal studies that illustrate how misclassified states can arise, and outline model structures for properly utilizing the data that are produced. In each case misclassification occurs in only one direction (thus there is a subset of individuals or patches where state is known with certainty), and there are multiple sampling occasions per period of interest. For the cases involving capture?recapture data I allude to a general model structure that could include each example as a special case. However, this collection of cases also illustrates how difficult it is to develop a model structure that can be directly useful for answering every ecological question of interest and account for every type of data from the field.
Forecasting aftershock activity: 1. Adaptive estimates based on the Omori and Gutenberg-Richter laws
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Baranov, S. V.; Shebalin, P. N.
2016-05-01
The method for forecasting the intensity of the aftershock processes after strong earthquakes in different magnitude intervals is considered. The method is based on the joint use of the time model of the aftershock process and the Gutenberg-Richter law. The time model serves for estimating the intensity of the aftershock flow with a magnitude larger than or equal to the magnitude of completeness. The Gutenberg-Richter law is used for magnitude scaling. The suggested approach implements successive refinement of the parameters of both components of the method, which is the main novelty distinguishing it from the previous ones. This approach, to a significant extent, takes into account the variations in the parameters of the frequency-magnitude distribution, which often show themselves by the decreasing fraction of stronger aftershocks with time. Testing the method on eight aftershock sequences in the regions with different patterns of seismicity demonstrates the high probability of successful forecasts. The suggested technique can be employed in seismological monitoring centers for forecasting the aftershock activity of a strong earthquake based on the results of operational processing.
Scale parameter-estimating method for adaptive fingerprint pore extraction model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yi, Yao; Cao, Liangcai; Guo, Wei; Luo, Yaping; He, Qingsheng; Jin, Guofan
2011-11-01
Sweat pores and other level 3 features have been proven to provide more discriminatory information about fingerprint characteristics, which is useful for personal identification especially in law enforcement applications. With the advent of high resolution (>=1000 ppi) fingerprint scanning equipment, sweat pores are attracting increasing attention in automatic fingerprint identification system (AFIS), where the extraction of pores is a critical step. This paper presents a scale parameter-estimating method in filtering-based pore extraction procedure. Pores are manually extracted from a 1000 ppi grey-level fingerprint image. The size and orientation of each detected pore are extracted together with local ridge width and orientation. The quantitative relation between the pore parameters (size and orientation) and local image parameters (ridge width and orientation) is statistically obtained. The pores are extracted by filtering fingerprint image with the new pore model, whose parameters are determined by local image parameters and the statistically established relation. Experiments conducted on high resolution fingerprints indicate that the new pore model gives good performance in pore extraction.
Johnson, Richard C; Horning, Matthew E; Espeland, Erin K; Vance-Borland, Ken
2015-01-01
Genetic variation for potentially adaptive traits of the key restoration species Sandberg bluegrass (Poa secunda J. Presl) was assessed over the intermountain western United States in relation to source population climate. Common gardens were established at two intermountain west sites with progeny from two maternal parents from each of 130 wild populations. Data were collected over 2 years at each site on fifteen plant traits associated with production, phenology, and morphology. Analyses of variance revealed strong population differences for all plant traits (P < 0.0001), indicating genetic variation. Both the canonical correlation and linear correlation established associations between source populations and climate variability. Populations from warmer, more arid climates had generally lower dry weight, earlier phenology, and smaller, narrower leaves than those from cooler, moister climates. The first three canonical variates were regressed with climate variables resulting in significant models (P < 0.0001) used to map 12 seed zones. Of the 700 981 km2 mapped, four seed zones represented 92% of the area in typically semi-arid and arid regions. The association of genetic variation with source climates in the intermountain west suggested climate driven natural selection and evolution. We recommend seed transfer zones and population movement guidelines to enhance adaptation and diversity for large-scale restoration projects. PMID:25685192
Static state estimation of multiterminal DC/AC power system in rectangular co-ordinates
Roy, L.; Sinha, A.K. ); Srivastava, H.N.P. )
1991-01-01
This paper describes a simple, efficient and reliable method for estimating the state of an integrated multiterminal HVDC/AC power system in the rectangular coordinate form. A six variable model is used to represent the converter system. The proposed algorithm performs successfully in obtaining the state of an AC system with a DC link or a multiterminal DC network. It is possible to implement it for an on-line state estimation. Simulation results of a 30-busbar system are presented for illustration.
Guidelines for preparation of state water-use estimates for 2000
Kenny, Joan F., (Edited By)
2004-01-01
This report describes the water-use categories and data elements required for the 2000 national water-use compilation conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) as part of its National Water Use Information Program. It identifies sources of water-use information, guidelines for estimating water use, and required documentation for preparation of the national compilation by State for the United States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The data are published in USGS Circular 1268, Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2000. USGS has published circulars on estimated use of water in the United States at 5-year intervals since 1950. As part of this USGS program to document water use on a national scale for the year 2000, all States prepare estimates of water withdrawals for public supply, industrial, irrigation, and thermoelectric power generation water uses at the county level. All States prepare estimates of domestifc use and population served by public supply at least at the State level. All States provide estimates of irrigated acres by irrigation system type (sprinkler, surface, or microirrigation) at the county level. County-level estimates of withdrawals for mining, livestock, and aquaculture uses are compiled by selected States that comprised the largest percentage of national use in 1995 for these categories, and are optional for other States. Ground-water withdrawals for public-supply, industrial, and irrigation use are aggregated by principal aquifer or aquifer system, as identified by the USGS Office of Ground Water. Some categories and data elements that were mandatory in previous compilations are optional for the 2000 compilation, in response to budget considerations at the State level. Optional categories are commercial, hydroelectric, and wastewater treatment. Estimation of deliveries from public supply to domestic, commercial, industrial, and thermoelectric uses, consumptive use for any category, and
Intracavity adaptive correction of a 10 kW, solid-state, heat-capacity laser
LaFortune, K N; Hurd, R L; Brase, J M; Yamamoto, R M
2004-05-13
The Solid-State, Heat-Capacity Laser (SSHCL), under development at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is a large aperture (100 cm{sup 2}), confocal, unstable resonator requiring near-diffraction-limited beam quality. There are two primary sources of the aberrations in the system: residual, static aberrations from the fabrication of the optical components and predictable, time-dependent, thermally-induced index gradients within the gain medium. A deformable mirror placed within the cavity is used to correct the aberrations that are sensed externally with a Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor. Although the complexity of intracavity adaptive correction is greater than that of external correction, it enables control of the mode growth within the resonator, resulting in the ability to correct a more aberrated system longer. The overall system design, measurement techniques and correction algorithms are discussed. Experimental results from initial correction of the static aberrations and dynamic correction of the time-dependent aberrations are presented.
[Adolescents and young adults with cancer between adaptation and addiction: state of the question].
Grégoire, Solène; Flahault, Cécile; Laurence, Valérie; Levy, Dominique; Dolbeault, Sylvie
2015-05-01
The purpose of this literature review is to make a point on the state of health of adolescents and young adults (15-25 years) suffering from cancer. The adaptation strategies and the impact of the announcement of cancer will be discussed. In addition, we are going to consider the characteristics of teenagers and young adults, given the fact that development is still in progress. This period is especially punctuated by various experiments and the emergence of some clinical signs. Also, we have identified various studies concerning the use of licit and illicit substances. Furthermore, we have taken interest in behavioral addictions, particularly cyber addiction. While trying to cross these variables with a population of teenagers and young adults in the context of somatic diseases, it occurred that this population was not well known and studied. The interest of this synthesis is to underline the importance to make future researches in these perspectives. PMID:25953377
1980-06-01
This study reviewed 1979 energy savings reports provided by states for conservation measures in four major categories of State Energy Conservation Program services, namely: (1) industrial, commercial, and institutional; (2) residential; (3) thermal and lighting; and (4) transportation. Conservation measures in these categories constitute a major portion of the total estimated 1980 savings for the State Energy Conservation Program. This study only addressed measures in these categories for which usable documentation had been submitted by states. Based on a review of measures supported by available documentation, the study estimates that energy savings associated with the conservation measures reviewed were 108 TBtu's for the calendar year 1979. These estimated energy savings for 1979 were converted into 540 million dollars for 1979 and 2.8 billion dollars over the projected life of the conservation measures.
Chen, Tao; Kirkby, Norman F; Jena, Raj
2012-12-01
Model predictive control (MPC), originally developed in the community of industrial process control, is a potentially effective approach to optimal scheduling of cancer therapy. The basis of MPC is usually a state-space model (a system of ordinary differential equations), whereby existing studies usually assume that the entire states can be directly measured. This paper aims to demonstrate that when the system states are not fully measurable, in conjunction with model parameter discrepancy, MPC is still a useful method for cancer treatment. This aim is achieved through the application of moving horizon estimation (MHE), an optimisation-based method to jointly estimate the system states and parameters. The effectiveness of the MPC-MHE scheme is illustrated through scheduling the dose of tamoxifen for simulated tumour-bearing patients, and the impact of estimation horizon and magnitude of parameter discrepancy is also investigated. PMID:22739208
Dynamic State Estimation and Parameter Calibration of DFIG based on Ensemble Kalman Filter
Fan, Rui; Huang, Zhenyu; Wang, Shaobu; Diao, Ruisheng; Meng, Da
2015-07-30
With the growing interest in the application of wind energy, doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) plays an essential role in the industry nowadays. To deal with the increasing stochastic variations introduced by intermittent wind resource and responsive loads, dynamic state estimation (DSE) are introduced in any power system associated with DFIGs. However, sometimes this dynamic analysis canould not work because the parameters of DFIGs are not accurate enough. To solve the problem, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method is proposed for the state estimation and parameter calibration tasks. In this paper, a DFIG is modeled and implemented with the EnKF method. Sensitivity analysis is demonstrated regarding the measurement noise, initial state errors and parameter errors. The results indicate this EnKF method has a robust performance on the state estimation and parameter calibration of DFIGs.
Adaptive behaviour and multiple equilibrium states in a predator-prey model.
Pimenov, Alexander; Kelly, Thomas C; Korobeinikov, Andrei; O'Callaghan, Michael J A; Rachinskii, Dmitrii
2015-05-01
There is evidence that multiple stable equilibrium states are possible in real-life ecological systems. Phenomenological mathematical models which exhibit such properties can be constructed rather straightforwardly. For instance, for a predator-prey system this result can be achieved through the use of non-monotonic functional response for the predator. However, while formal formulation of such a model is not a problem, the biological justification for such functional responses and models is usually inconclusive. In this note, we explore a conjecture that a multitude of equilibrium states can be caused by an adaptation of animal behaviour to changes of environmental conditions. In order to verify this hypothesis, we consider a simple predator-prey model, which is a straightforward extension of the classic Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model. In this model, we made an intuitively transparent assumption that the prey can change a mode of behaviour in response to the pressure of predation, choosing either "safe" of "risky" (or "business as usual") behaviour. In order to avoid a situation where one of the modes gives an absolute advantage, we introduce the concept of the "cost of a policy" into the model. A simple conceptual two-dimensional predator-prey model, which is minimal with this property, and is not relying on odd functional responses, higher dimensionality or behaviour change for the predator, exhibits two stable co-existing equilibrium states with basins of attraction separated by a separatrix of a saddle point. PMID:25732186
Space Weather and a State of Cardiovascular System of Human Being with a Weakened Adaptation System
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Samsonov, S. N.
As has been shown in [Samsonov et al., 2013] even at the considerable disturbances of space weather parameters a healthy human being did not undergo painful symptoms although measurements of objective physiological indices showed their changes. At the same time the state of health of people with the weakened adaptation system under the same conditions can considerably be deteriorated up to fatal outcome. The analysis of results of the project "Heliomed" and the number of calls for the emergency medical care (EMC) around Yakutsk as to cardiovascular diseases (CVD) has shown:- the total number of calls for EMC concerning myocardial infarction (MI) per year near the geomagnetic disturbance maximum (1992) exceeds the number of calls per year near the geomagnetic activity minimum (1998) by a factor of 1,5 and concerning to strokes - by a factor of 1,8.- maxima of MI are observed during spring and autumn periods coinciding with maxima of geophysical disturbance;- the coincidence of 30-32 daily periods in a power spectrum of MI with the same periods in power spectra of space weather parameters (speeds and density of the solar wind, interplanetary magnetic field, geophysical disturbance);- the existence of 3 maxima of the number of calls for EMC: a) at the moment of disturbance on the Sun; during a geophysical disturbance (in 2-4 days after a disturbance on the Sun); in 2-4 days after a geophysical disturbance;- the availability of coincidence of insignificant disturbances of space weather parameters with changes of the functional state of cardiovascular system of a human being with the weakened adaptation system and the occurrence of MI and strokes at considerable values of such disturbances is explained by a quasi-logarithmic dependence of the response of human being organisms to the environment disturbance intensity.
Ho, Ngoc-Huynh; Truong, Phuc Huu; Jeong, Gu-Min
2016-01-01
We propose a walking distance estimation method based on an adaptive step-length estimator at various walking speeds using a smartphone. First, we apply a fast Fourier transform (FFT)-based smoother on the acceleration data collected by the smartphone to remove the interference signals. Then, we analyze these data using a set of step-detection rules in order to detect walking steps. Using an adaptive estimator, which is based on a model of average step speed, we accurately obtain the walking step length. To evaluate the accuracy of the proposed method, we examine the distance estimation for four different distances and three speed levels. The experimental results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms conventional estimation methods in terms of accuracy. PMID:27598171
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kononova, Natalia; Pechurkin, Nickolay
2012-07-01
The high osmotic pressure of soil solution and toxic salts restrict the possible growth of the most plant species. However, the plant halophytes are able to grow on soil with a very high degree of salinity. The object of this study is a halophytic vegetation located near the coastal zone of the Lake Kurinka (the South Siberia, Khakasia). The total lake mineralization varies from 72 to 108 g / l. Type of salinity - sulfate-soda (the content of SO42-- 0,086%; HCO3-- 1,74%). It was observed that each plant communitie are located on soils with the different soil salinity degree (0.2 - 7.16 g / l). That is why, they have a different species richness and structural organization. It is shown that the average values of above-ground dry phytomass of plant communities (over five years of research) changed to a limited extent by changing the size of a projective cover of the dominant species. It is noted that in Suaeda plant community (dominant Suaeda corniculata) productivity ranges from 100 to 210 g/m2. It was calculated the possible accumulation of plant community phytomass (taking into account changes in soil salinity) so if in this territory grows only one species, that in a real community was a dominant. Estimated phytomass of the monodominant (Sueda corniculata) in 2004 and 2008 (143 and 188 g/m2 for years, respectively) was comparable with the real growth of the community (174 and 201 g/m2 for years, respectively). For Puccinellia tenuissima, that is subdominant in this plant communities, characterized by a small increasing of phytomass and in the likely absence of competition, the total phytomass this plant communities are amounted to 54 and 111 g/m2, respectively, over the years. This values are almost two times lower than the actual value. It is obvious that the existing conditions of salinity are sufficiently extreme to Puccinellia tenuissima and its monospecific community would be able to compete with the real dominant - Suaeda corniculata.
Recursive Bayesian filtering framework for lithium-ion cell state estimation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tagade, Piyush; Hariharan, Krishnan S.; Gambhire, Priya; Kolake, Subramanya Mayya; Song, Taewon; Oh, Dukjin; Yeo, Taejung; Doo, Seokgwang
2016-02-01
Robust battery management system is critical for a safe and reliable electric vehicle operation. One of the most important functions of the battery management system is to accurately estimate the battery state using minimal on-board instrumentation. This paper presents a recursive Bayesian filtering framework for on-board battery state estimation by assimilating measurables like cell voltage, current and temperature with physics-based reduced order model (ROM) predictions. The paper proposes an improved Particle filtering algorithm for implementation of the framework, and compares its performance against the unscented Kalman filter. Functionality of the proposed framework is demonstrated for a commercial NCA/C cell state estimation at different operating conditions including constant current discharge at room and low temperatures, hybrid power pulse characterization (HPPC) and urban driving schedule (UDDS) protocols. In addition to accurate voltage prediction, the electrochemical nature of ROM enables drawing of physical insights into the cell behavior. Advantages of using electrode concentrations over conventional Coulomb counting for accessible capacity estimation are discussed. In addition to the mean state estimation, the framework also provides estimation of the associated confidence bounds that are used to establish predictive capability of the proposed framework.
An estimate of avian mortality at communication towers in the United States and Canada.
Longcore, Travis; Rich, Catherine; Mineau, Pierre; MacDonald, Beau; Bert, Daniel G; Sullivan, Lauren M; Mutrie, Erin; Gauthreaux, Sidney A; Avery, Michael L; Crawford, Robert L; Manville, Albert M; Travis, Emilie R; Drake, David
2012-01-01
Avian mortality at communication towers in the continental United States and Canada is an issue of pressing conservation concern. Previous estimates of this mortality have been based on limited data and have not included Canada. We compiled a database of communication towers in the continental United States and Canada and estimated avian mortality by tower with a regression relating avian mortality to tower height. This equation was derived from 38 tower studies for which mortality data were available and corrected for sampling effort, search efficiency, and scavenging where appropriate. Although most studies document mortality at guyed towers with steady-burning lights, we accounted for lower mortality at towers without guy wires or steady-burning lights by adjusting estimates based on published studies. The resulting estimate of mortality at towers is 6.8 million birds per year in the United States and Canada. Bootstrapped subsampling indicated that the regression was robust to the choice of studies included and a comparison of multiple regression models showed that incorporating sampling, scavenging, and search efficiency adjustments improved model fit. Estimating total avian mortality is only a first step in developing an assessment of the biological significance of mortality at communication towers for individual species or groups of species. Nevertheless, our estimate can be used to evaluate this source of mortality, develop subsequent per-species mortality estimates, and motivate policy action. PMID:22558082
An Estimate of Avian Mortality at Communication Towers in the United States and Canada
Longcore, Travis; Rich, Catherine; Mineau, Pierre; MacDonald, Beau; Bert, Daniel G.; Sullivan, Lauren M.; Mutrie, Erin; Gauthreaux, Sidney A.; Avery, Michael L.; Crawford, Robert L.; Manville, Albert M.; Travis, Emilie R.; Drake, David
2012-01-01
Avian mortality at communication towers in the continental United States and Canada is an issue of pressing conservation concern. Previous estimates of this mortality have been based on limited data and have not included Canada. We compiled a database of communication towers in the continental United States and Canada and estimated avian mortality by tower with a regression relating avian mortality to tower height. This equation was derived from 38 tower studies for which mortality data were available and corrected for sampling effort, search efficiency, and scavenging where appropriate. Although most studies document mortality at guyed towers with steady-burning lights, we accounted for lower mortality at towers without guy wires or steady-burning lights by adjusting estimates based on published studies. The resulting estimate of mortality at towers is 6.8 million birds per year in the United States and Canada. Bootstrapped subsampling indicated that the regression was robust to the choice of studies included and a comparison of multiple regression models showed that incorporating sampling, scavenging, and search efficiency adjustments improved model fit. Estimating total avian mortality is only a first step in developing an assessment of the biological significance of mortality at communication towers for individual species or groups of species. Nevertheless, our estimate can be used to evaluate this source of mortality, develop subsequent per-species mortality estimates, and motivate policy action. PMID:22558082
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Emamgolizadeh, S.; Bateni, S. M.; Shahsavani, D.; Ashrafi, T.; Ghorbani, H.
2015-10-01
The soil cation exchange capacity (CEC) is one of the main soil chemical properties, which is required in various fields such as environmental and agricultural engineering as well as soil science. In situ measurement of CEC is time consuming and costly. Hence, numerous studies have used traditional regression-based techniques to estimate CEC from more easily measurable soil parameters (e.g., soil texture, organic matter (OM), and pH). However, these models may not be able to adequately capture the complex and highly nonlinear relationship between CEC and its influential soil variables. In this study, Genetic Expression Programming (GEP) and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) were employed to estimate CEC from more readily measurable soil physical and chemical variables (e.g., OM, clay, and pH) by developing functional relations. The GEP- and MARS-based functional relations were tested at two field sites in Iran. Results showed that GEP and MARS can provide reliable estimates of CEC. Also, it was found that the MARS model (with root-mean-square-error (RMSE) of 0.318 Cmol+ kg-1 and correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.864) generated slightly better results than the GEP model (with RMSE of 0.270 Cmol+ kg-1 and R2 of 0.807). The performance of GEP and MARS models was compared with two existing approaches, namely artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR). The comparison indicated that MARS and GEP outperformed the MLP model, but they did not perform as good as ANN. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the most and the least influential variables affecting CEC. It was found that OM and pH have the most and least significant effect on CEC, respectively.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ait-El-Fquih, Boujemaa; El Gharamti, Mohamad; Hoteit, Ibrahim
2016-08-01
Ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF) is an efficient approach to addressing uncertainties in subsurface groundwater models. The EnKF sequentially integrates field data into simulation models to obtain a better characterization of the model's state and parameters. These are generally estimated following joint and dual filtering strategies, in which, at each assimilation cycle, a forecast step by the model is followed by an update step with incoming observations. The joint EnKF directly updates the augmented state-parameter vector, whereas the dual EnKF empirically employs two separate filters, first estimating the parameters and then estimating the state based on the updated parameters. To develop a Bayesian consistent dual approach and improve the state-parameter estimates and their consistency, we propose in this paper a one-step-ahead (OSA) smoothing formulation of the state-parameter Bayesian filtering problem from which we derive a new dual-type EnKF, the dual EnKFOSA. Compared with the standard dual EnKF, it imposes a new update step to the state, which is shown to enhance the performance of the dual approach with almost no increase in the computational cost. Numerical experiments are conducted with a two-dimensional (2-D) synthetic groundwater aquifer model to investigate the performance and robustness of the proposed dual EnKFOSA, and to evaluate its results against those of the joint and dual EnKFs. The proposed scheme is able to successfully recover both the hydraulic head and the aquifer conductivity, providing further reliable estimates of their uncertainties. Furthermore, it is found to be more robust to different assimilation settings, such as the spatial and temporal distribution of the observations, and the level of noise in the data. Based on our experimental setups, it yields up to 25 % more accurate state and parameter estimations than the joint and dual approaches.
Guo, Penghong; Rivera, Daniel E.; Downs, Danielle S.; Savage, Jennifer S.
2016-01-01
Excessive gestational weight gain (i.e., weight gain during pregnancy) is a significant public health concern, and has been the recent focus of novel, control systems-based interventions. This paper develops a control-oriented dynamical systems model based on a first-principles energy balance model from the literature, which is evaluated against participant data from a study targeted to obese and overweight pregnant women. The results indicate significant under-reporting of energy intake among the participant population. A series of approaches based on system identification and state estimation are developed in the paper to better understand and characterize the extent of under-reporting; these range from back-calculating energy intake from a closed-form of the energy balance model, to a constrained semi-physical identification approach that estimates the extent of systematic under-reporting in the presence of noise and possibly missing data. Additionally, we describe an adaptive algorithm based on Kalman filtering to estimate energy intake in real-time. The approaches are illustrated with data from both simulated and actual intervention participants. PMID:27570366
Tufted capuchins (Cebus apella) adapt their communicative behaviour to human's attentional states.
Defolie, Charlotte; Malassis, Raphaëlle; Serre, Marion; Meunier, Hélène
2015-05-01
Animal communication has become a widely studied field of research, especially because of the associated debates on the origin of human language. Due to their phylogenetic proximity with humans, non-human primates represent a suitable model to investigate the precursors of language. This study focuses on the perception of the attentional states of others, an important prerequisite to intentional communication. We investigated whether capuchins (Cebus apella) produce a learnt pointing gesture towards a hidden and unreachable food reward as a function of the attentional status of the human experimenter. For that purpose, we tested five subjects that we first trained to indicate by a pointing gesture towards the human partner the position of a reward hidden by an assistant. Then, capuchins were tested in two experimental conditions randomly ordered. In the first condition-motivation trial-the experimenter was attentive to the subject gestures and rewarded him immediately when it pointed towards the baited cylinder. During the second condition-test trial-the experimenter adopted one of the following attention states and the subject was rewarded after 10 s has elapsed, regardless of the subject's behaviour. Five attentional states were tested: (1) experimenter absent, (2) experimenter back to the monkey, (3) experimenter's head away, (4) experimenter watching above the monkey, and (5) experimenter watching the monkey face. Our results reveal a variation in our subjects' communicative behaviours with a discrimination of the different postural clues (body and head orientation) available in our experimental conditions. This study suggests that capuchins can flexibly use a communicative gesture to adapt to the attentional state of their partner and provides evidence that acquired communicative gestures of monkeys might be used intentionally. PMID:25630371